textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday along with mostly dry conditions.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move through Saturday night, bringing gusty winds Saturday night into Sunday and a period of very cold temperatures lasting through Tuesday morning.

- Strong winds and dry conditions are possible Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Today: A 1024mb high over IL this morning will push east to the east coast today while a surface trough develops west of the area. The pressure gradient will result in SSE winds gusting up to 20-25 mph today as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tonight: A shortwave trough moves through the region, resulting in <15% potential for very light rain over our central MO counties. Resulting cloud cover will keep temperatures warm with lows in the 50s.

For Friday, look for highs in the low 70s under clearing skies.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

We start the weekend out relatively warm with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday. However, a deep 500mb low over northern Ontario will have a lot of cold air set up across the northern CONUS. Shortwave energy will result in a cold front moving through Saturday evening into Saturday night followed by much cold air Sunday into Sunday night as the upper low over Ontario splits and shifts southward into the Mid-Mississippi and/or Ohio valleys. Models are in good general agreement of 850mb temperatures of -5C to -10C with this second wave of cold air. The cold airmass will be quickly followed by surface high pressure Sunday night, resulting in very cold temperatures and wind chills into Monday morning.

The main impacts from this system will be gusty winds and much colder temperatures. There is a <15% chance for some flurries on Sunday depending on the track of shortwave energy, but no accumulations would occur. Look for gusts behind the front of up to 25-35 mph based on better verifying NBM version 5.0. As for temperatures, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Saturday night will be followed up by highs in the upper 20s to mid 40s Sunday. Lows Sunday night are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s, with very little spread in NBM guidance, along with wind chill values of 10-20 F into Monday morning. Highs Monday will be in the 40s.

A tight pressure gradient sets up across the area Tuesday as surface high pressure pushes into the southeastern CONUS and troughing develops across the Plains. Look for high temperatures in the low to mid 60s, minimum RH values of 30-40% (if not lower), and southwest winds gusting to 25-35 mph in the forecast, but NBM version 5.0 gusts show 35-45 mph which more closely matches model profile momentum transfer. Will need to watch for fire weather concerns on this day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Breezy winds today will give way to LLWS tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist this TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.