textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures through early next week.

- Dry weather will persist through at least Monday afternoon.

- A more unsettled pattern sets up for the Tuesday through Friday period with rain chances each day.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation in the Feb 13th to 19th period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 119 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a closed low along the Ontario/Quebec border with an amplified ridge axis stretching from Mexico into British Columbia. An area of low pressure was undercutting the ridge off the coast of California. East of the ridge strong northwesterly flow extended from the upper Mississippi valley into the southeast U.S. At the surface, a cold front pushed through yesterday with high pressure moving into the region. Temperatures have cooled into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area as of midnight.

Today: After a cold start to the morning with temperatures in the 20s, sunshine and a return to a southerly wind by the afternoon will bring highs back into the mid to upper 50s in the western half of the CWA and the mid 40s to around 50 in the east.

Tonight: Stronger low level warm air advection will take place and lows will not be as cold with Sunday morning temperatures from the mid 20s to around 30 in the east and mid 30s to around 40 in the west.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 119 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Well above normal temperatures Sunday - Tuesday: Ensemble average 850mb temperatures during this time period would be in the 90th percentile or higher based on sounding climatology for SGF. NBM temperatures in the 60s on Sunday and in the upper 60s to low 70s for Monday and Tuesday look reasonable based on local climate studies given these temperatures aloft.

Rain chances for the remainder of the week: A cold front will push through on Tuesday and will bring temperatures down a bit from the unseasonably warm readings from Sunday - Tuesday. Upper flow will also become more zonal for the remainder of the week with several waves of energy potentially bringing rain chances to the area. Best chances for rain and possibly some thunder will be late Tuesday into Tuesday night(30-60%). With 20-50% chances for much of the remainder of the week.

8 to 14 day temperature outlook: Ensemble temperature anomolies continue to indicate a 6 to 9 degree above normal range so it appears the above normal readings will persist into week 2.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with dry atmospheric conditions in place, with only some high cirrus clouds expected. Winds will veer around to the south during the afternoon and increase to around 10 to 12 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.