textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday. Temperatures will be 10-15+ degrees above normal with daily Heat Index values 100-110. Heat headline upgrades/extensions may be needed in the coming days.

- Minimal rain chances for the next seven days. Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Water vapor imagery depicts the prominent upper-level ridge that has been bringing the sustained heat has retrograded to the west slightly since Thursday, bringing the ridge axis closer to the Missouri Ozarks.

Heat Continues:

Other than the slight shift in the ridge axis positioning, little has changed in the synoptic pattern, meaning persistence is a reliable forecast method once again today. That is, hot and dry weather will continue. Widespread afternoon heat index values between 100 to 105 will be common, but locally higher values will occur--particularly in sheltered or lower elevations where dew points are higher. NWS HeatRisk is maxing out at Extreme (Level 4 of 4) for much of the area largely due to consecutive days of abnormal heat and little overnight relief; a Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Confidence is high that this heat wave will continue into the weekend. Ensembles demonstrate strong agreement in building the aforementioned ridge back to the west Saturday into Sunday, becoming centered over the Plains. Southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas will remain under its influence, and afternoon heat index values will continue to climb into the 100 to 110 degree range. Therefore, the Heat Advisory has been extended through 8 PM Sunday areawide. With some localized areas reaching a 105+ heat index for the last two days, it is entirely possible the four convective day criteria comes into play and an upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning is needed. However, because the previous observations of 105+ deg heat index and the forecast locations of future 105+ deg heat index are not spatially consistent with one another, confidence was not high enough to issue a warning for any specific location.

As the ridge builds across the Plains, a diffuse cold front will sag southwestward into Missouri. Global models continue to vary in this front's progression, but its passage may bring slightly cooler temperatures to the eastern Ozarks and south- central Missouri early in the week. A few global models still want to spit out isolated patches of light QPF, but these chances remain very low (10-15%) as the better upper-level energy remains displaced to the north and east.

Ensemble clusters diverge more significantly by the middle of next week. There is some signal, at least, of a flattening ridge and an open door for rain chances. NBM PoPs are currently at 15-25% on Thursday. With the persistent heat and a lack of appreciable rainfall in the meantime, drought conditions will deteriorate, and fuels will be more susceptible to fire starts. These conditions will need to be monitored closely in the coming weeks for the potential of worsening impacts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A cumulus field will likely develop across portions of eastern Missouri and the eastern Ozarks this afternoon, but no reductions to flight category will occur. Winds will prevail out of the south between 5-10 kt.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998 KUNO: 101/1954

September 6: KSGF: 100/1960 KJLN: 101/1954 KUNO: 101/1990

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KVIH: 100/1901 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

September 8: KSGF: 76/1925

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.