textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming back into the 70s this week and into the weekend.

- Unsettled conditions with daily rain chances Thursday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis continue to show split flow over the CONUS with a large scale trough over the northeast and ridge axis from the central Rockies extending into the Canadian Rockies with the next northern stream shortwave pushing into British Columbia. Southern stream showed a shortwave pushing into southern California with Pacific moisture streaming south of the low eastward across Baja into northern Mexico into the southern plains. 700mb frontogenesis was setting up over eastern Nebraska into western IA and will be the focus for banded snowfall later tonight. Currently across the CWA, temperatures quickly warmed this morning after cool lows in the low to mid 30s and were in the low to mid 60s at midday. A weak frontal boundary was pushing south across the area. Dew points were in the low to mid 30s making humidity levels in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tonight - Tuesday: The 700mb frontogenetic forcing will set up from northwest to southeast from eastern Nebraska into northeast MO tonight with a narrow band of snow likely. This will remain to our north and we may see some cloud cover in our northern CWA, but are not expecting any precipitation with this. Our lows will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the south. High pressure at the surface will shift eastward on Tuesday and we'll start to see a southerly wind redevelop over the area. Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon should rise back into the low to mid 70s in the west with mid 60s in the east.

Tuesday night: Southern stream energy should shift eastward but remain south of the area. Main northern stream wave will track into the northern Rockies and northern high plains. Southerly flow will continue in the low levels and temperatures during the night will be more mild the the previous several nights...in the low 40s in the east to the upper 40s in the west.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The large upper low will continue to track eastward on Wednesday into Wednesday night into the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley. It will allow a front to drop southeast into the central plains to mid Mississippi valley by Thursday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of this boundary during the day Thursday, especially over our western CWA and our chances of showers and thunderstorms will begin(20-30%) late in the day and continue into Thursday night(20-50%).

As the northern stream system begins to lift northeast and a deep low begins to push into California on Friday, southwest flow aloft will develop over the area along with stronger low level moisture advection. A front will be positioned near the area during the day Friday with higher pops(30-80%) with highest pops in the west which continues into Friday night.

A warm front will then lift well to the north Friday night into Saturday and low level Gulf moisture will continue to advect into the area. Broad upper level southwest flow will continue into the area ahead of the upper low over the weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be to our west and in our western CWA.

Our best chances for more widespread rainfall will arrive as the upper level wave begins to lift northeast into the area. Some timing and placement differences exist but this looks most likely during the Sunday night into next Tuesday time frame.

Excessive rainfall Outlook: Northwestern portions of the CWA are in a marginal excessive rain outlook for Thursday and Friday.

Severe weather outlook: No severe weather is in the seven day outlook, however thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A slow-moving frontal system will dip south through southern Missouri tonight, leaving winds to turn to the southeast by the morning. Some high clouds will move overhead as a weak upper-level disturbance moves through northern Missouri, but no impacts to flight categories will occur.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.