textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures, cloudy and patchy drizzle on Sunday.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal temperatures early next week. Average highs for this time period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather accompanies this pattern through at least Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a northwest flow pattern over the area. A shortwave and associated surface low was located across Nebraska. A precip shield associated with this system extended into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Low level clouds have slowly eroded across the area but do remain across southeast Kansas into west central Missouri. Temps have reached the 50s east of Springfield with low 40s in the remaining cloud cover.

Tonight: The surface low looks to move southeast into northern Missouri. Southerly winds out ahead of the front look to keep temps above freezing overnight. Increasing lift with the arrival of the front could cause some sprinkles or light rain showers, with the highest chances of this north of Springfield. While increasing winds should keep the fog patchy and greater than one mile, there is some short term guidance that develops fog less than one mile across south central Missouri. Confidence remains low in any dense fog potential overnight.

Sunday: The cold front looks to move through the area in the morning. An inspection of HREF forecast soundings shows favorable parameters for drizzle. A lack of cloud ice, saturated low levels and lift associated with upslope flow over the Ozark Plateau should create some patchy drizzle during the day. The freezing line looks to remain along and north of Highway 54 through mid afternoon therefore not expecting any freezing drizzle at this time. We have nudged temps down using short term models with high temps likely occuring in the morning with temps steady or falling through the 30s during the day. By late afternoon the highest potential for drizzle will be east of Springfield however temps still look to be above freezing. There are a few models showing snow showers east of Springfield in the afternoon however there are concerns about the lack of cloud ice. The lift does look to decrease by evening with precip ending around dark. We will continue to monitor trends in the short term guidance since a faster arrival of cold air would increase the potential for freezing drizzle. However currently the potential for freezing drizzle is very low.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles suggest that while northwest flow aloft continues, winds will gradually turn to the southwest and increase at 850mb which will usher in warmer air. Surface high pressure will slide through Monday with clear skies and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Much warmer temps look to occur on Tuesday as mean 850mb temps rise into the 6-10C range. Latest NBM supports highs in the middle to upper 50s. This warmth will also come with increasing surface wind gusts up to 30mph as a pressure gradient develops over the area.

Wednesday through Friday: Ensembles then suggest that a strong shortwave will slide north of the region on Wednesday. This should force a dry front into the area with falling temps again however the bulk of the colder airmass should remain north and east of the area. While ensemble variance is high for late week, there is some signal of another shortwave moving southeast into northern Missouri Thursday night into Friday which could clip central Missouri with light precip chances however confidence is low. NBM data shows large temperature spreads for Friday which suggests large uncertainty in the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the period as a cold front makes its way south through the area. Winds will start out southerly tonight but turn northerly by 12z Sunday. Wind gusts could gust up to 20 knots by Sunday afternoon especially over southwest Missouri. Drizzle/patchy fog may linger behind the front on Sunday morning but will dissipate by the afternoon hours. Visibilities are expected to stay above 1 SM.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.