textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwesterly winds through Thursday with frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon hours.

- Unseasonably cool conditions take hold Thursday through the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return to southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Sunday. Considerable uncertainty on the track of this system limits overall confidence.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Upper-air analysis indicates a building ridge across the western CONUS and a shortwave embedded within the upper-level jet sinking southeastward out of the northern Plains. At the surface, a low pressure center is transiting the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through southern Missouri. A second low is situated over the Great Lakes region, with another front extending through the Midwest.

Moderately Breezy Today and Thursday:

A tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the aforementioned low pressure center underneath the upper- level jetmax has and will produce moderately elevated winds in this cold air advection regime today. Observations have indicated gusts of 20 to 25 mph are common, and NBM QMD data suggest a sporadic gust to 35 mph is possible during the afternoon hours. Winds will lessen somewhat after sunset as the boundary layer decouples but will strengthen again on Thursday once mixing resumes. A slightly more diffuse pressure gradient may result in a bit tamer winds on Thursday as the area sits in between low pressure systems, but gusts of 20 to 25 mph are still likely.

Unseasonably Cool Temperatures to End the Week:

Global models show consensus in shifting the polar jet southward on Thursday, engulfing nearly the entire eastern CONUS. A secondary cold front will transit southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas at the same time, ushering in an unseasonably cold airmass that will stick around through the end of the week. Highs in the 50s Thursday afternoon will be followed by overnight lows at or below the freezing mark Thursday night. In fact, REFS depicts a 60-95% chance of temperatures 32 degrees or lower across the forecast area. Probabilities of temperatures 28 degrees or lower drop to less than 25%.

Temperatures will be colder still on Friday. Highs are forecast to fail to climb out of the 40s for many locations Friday afternoon, with the exceptions perhaps being across extreme southern Missouri and Kansas. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s for many, and we would not be surprised to see some observations in the teens across the eastern Ozarks Saturday morning with the mostly clear skies and calm winds promoting efficient radiational cooling.

Given recent frost and cold temperatures, the growing season is considered to be over, however, and additional frost/freeze headlines will not be issued.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Precipitation Chances on Sunday:

Ensemble guidance suggests the synoptic pattern described above will begin to break down late Saturday into early next week. As it does so, there is consensus in a shortwave transiting the Plains, bringing modest moisture, lift, and precipitation with it. Cluster analysis shows there is meaningful non-consensus on the track of this system, however. Canadian and European members tend to favor a more northerly track, which would mean precipitation is more likely to get into southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas; GEFS members tend to favor a more southerly track, however, which would keep the area mostly if not entirely dry. Thus, NBM PoPs remain down the middle, ranging from 40-60% across far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, with lower chances as you look toward central and eastern Missouri. It is difficult to pick a "winner" scenario at this point, and monitoring of forecast trends is prudent. Currently the highest precipitation chances are Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Should this happen, temperatures will be warm enough to keep the precipitation as all rain. If precipitation lingers into Sunday night, however, temperatures near 32 degrees could allow for a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain. For reference, NBM 25th percentile temperatures currently sit between 32 and 37 degrees. Given these marginal temperatures and only modest QPF to begin with, no accumulations or impacts are expected even if a few flakes do fall.

Gradual Warmup Next Week:

Global models depict upper-level ridging taking hold over the Plains throughout the week. This pattern change will promote a steady and gradual warmup each day, with temperatures approaching seasonal norms near 60 degrees by midweek (and likely even higher through the week's end).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. The most impactful forecast element will be gusty northwest winds behind a cold front this afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 25 kt will be common across southwest Missouri.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.