textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM tonight until 9 AM Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. - The CPC gives a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures to persist through the end of October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Current surface analysis depicts the cold front that pushed through the area yesterday now extends all the way from Maine, down across the eastern Seaboard, and well into central Mexico. Water vapor imagery depicts the amplified trough axis behind this cold front extending from the Great Lakes down into the southern Mississippi River Valley. On the dynamic subsidence side of the trough, a 1038 mb surface high is spread across the central Plains. Lastly, an upper-level low churns off the SW California coast, though interestingly, a mid-level high is noted just NE of this feature.

Low potential for frost early this morning:

With the high pressure center still off to our west, winds are still a bit elevated at 8-12 mph, along with some remnant clouds across the Ozark Plateau. This is keeping temperatures from dropping too sharply, with readings just a bit higher than forecast (SGF is currently at 48 as opposed to the 43 forecasted). Northwest of the Plateau, skies are more clear, and winds are in the 3-5 kt range. Here, temperatures are still in the low 40s, but this area will have the best chance of seeing some light patchy frost. That said, any widespread frost potential should stay north of the area.

Fall-like temperatures today:

The surface high will traverse eastward over the course of the day, keeping skies clear and winds calm. Temperatures will also stay cooler--or more seasonable--with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Frost Advisory in effect for tonight into Sunday morning:

While the surface high will be departing our region to the east tonight, light winds and clear skies are forecast for the eastern Ozarks. Here, temperatures are forecast to range from 32-36 degrees. Therefore, frost appears more likely (50-95%) in this region tonight into Sunday morning. This is especially true within the low-lying terrain features of the eastern Ozarks, particularly in Dent and Shannon Counties where COOP observers frequently come in much lower than surrounding observations. Given the greater confidence in frost across this area, a Frost Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM tonight into Sunday morning for Howell, Texas, Phelps, Dent, Shannon, and Oregon Counties. Elsewhere, lows are forecast to range from 36-40, decreasing widespread frost risk, though patchy areas of light frost still cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures next week:

Global ensembles continue to be in good agreement on a slower wave progression of a digging trough/low over the SW CONUS. This will lead to a prolonged amplified ridging pattern over our area, renewing southerly surface flow, keeping weather dry, and initiating a warming trend to well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. Highs Monday are forecast to be around 70 F, with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s by Wednesday through Friday. For context, normal highs for that time of year are in the upper 60s.

Medium confidence in above normal temperatures to end October:

Additionally, the CPC has our entire region in a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures for the period of October 24-30. This points to medium confidence that the synoptic pattern in place will continue to favor above normal temperatures through the rest of October.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Current infrared satellite imagery depicts a 3500-4000 kft stratus deck currently over the Ozark Plateau and associated TAF sites. Despite this, VFR conditions prevail, and are forecast to prevail through the entire 06Z period. The stratus deck will slowly clear and/or dissipate to clear skies by 08-15Z (earlier end of the timeframe at JLN and SGF).

During the time that the cloud deck is dissipating, northerly winds will be at 8-12 kts. Once the deck dissipates, winds will be more northeasterly at 3-8 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ071-082-083- 097-098-106.