textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk through tonight across the entire area with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Primary risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk for a few tornadoes.

- A Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall risk through Monday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Monday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized corridors up to 5 inches.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances through next week, with the highest chances (30-60%) on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: Now that the morning convective complex has moved off to our east, we are closely monitoring the mesoscale setup for this afternoon and evening. Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s as of 2 pm, with low 70s dewpoints. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s over the next few hours with gusty south- southwest winds of 25 to 30 mph. Currently it appears we are still a couple hours away from convective initiation, which according to the CAM models should develop along or just south of the cold front, which is currently draped from near Benton(KRAW) west-southwest to near Iola(KK88). The environment will favor supercell development initially, with deep layer shear around 40 knots in the vicinity of ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500+ J/kg). Steep mid-level lapse rates in this setup suggests initial supercells to pose a large hail threat, up to golf balls. Furthermore, sufficient DCAPE would support damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. As for the low-level environment, it supports a few tornadoes, particularly along boundaries in the area this afternoon. Initial supercell storm mode may quickly become clusters and/or segments as coverage increases with a gradual southeast progression through the area. Expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. SPC captures this severe potential with a Slight (2 of 5) severe risk across the entire area today through tonight.

Later tonight, a secondary shortwave overspreads the area with the cold front sagging farther south into the area. This would support further thunderstorm development in a rich moist environment. PWATs upwards of 1.8 to 2.0 inches will support efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per a hour as multiple rounds of thunderstorms track over the same areas. This will further amplify the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through this evening and tonight. The storms this morning brought rainfall amounts of between a half inch and an inch to areas north of Joplin to Springfield, with much lighter amounts to the south. For tonight, we are expecting an additional 1 to 2 inches remains in the forecast, with some of the CAMs depicting localized corridors of up to 5 inches. I am thinking the heaviest rainfall tonight with the greatest likelihood of training storms is generally along and south of Interstate 44, which did not get hit as hard as areas north of the interstate did overnight. This may mitigate the potential for flash flooding, but given our antecedent conditions with elevated streamflows and saturated soils, have maintained the Flood Watch, which is in effect through Monday morning. WPC has maintained a Moderate (3 of 4) risk for flashing flooding across portions of the area.

The cold front is progged to slide south of the area late tonight after midnight, dragging the rain and thunder potential to the south of the area. High pressure building into the area behind that front will bring cooler and drier weather for Monday. Highs Monday will be much cooler than today, only rising into the mid 70s to low 80s. Precipitation chances will remain mostly in AR and OK through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Northwest flow develops beginning Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday, with transient shortwaves through the pattern. This will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially along the southern MO and northern AR border with a frontal boundary draped generally along the area. These are not expected to be all day washouts, there are likely to be scattered shower and thunderstorms each day this week. The highest chances (30-60%) are currently depicted by the NBM on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a bit lower chances (30-50%) Thursday through Saturday. This pattern will be accompanied by cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A cold front will sag southward past the terminals early this morning. Winds will be light and generally from the north to northeast. Low stratus and fog over central MO will advect southward and bring MVFR visibility and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Surface wind speeds are forecast to increase slightly by mid- morning which should mix out any fog or mist while leaving lower ceilings in place into late this morning or early afternoon. Thereafter look for VFR conditions.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.