textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered shower and storm chance this afternoon through tonight (20-30 percent) along and north of Interstate 44.

- Highs in the 80s through Tuesday before a return to 90 by mid week.

- Additional isolated shower and storm chances (15-30%) will be possible Monday south of Interstate 44, however chances increase (40-60%) by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a upper level trough over the area which has resulted in lower temps and dews compared to previous days. An MCV was currently pushing east of the area into southeast Missouri. Another area of lift/vorticity was located across northern Missouri and was moving south. There remains enough low level moisture for scattered afternoon cumulus.

Isolated showers and storms: The vort max over northern Missouri will slide south into central Missouri by late afternoon and evening. ML CAPE around 2000j/kg and the lift should allow for the development of isolated thunderstorms in that region north of Highway 54. We are already seeing a cu field develop in that region. Shear will be weak therefore not expecting much storm organization and moisture above 500mb is lower therefore thinking the pulse severe potential is very low. That being said, sufficiently steep low level lapse rates could cause a few storms with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. These isolated storms will likely slide south towards the I-44 corridor this evening into the first part of the overnight hours. We think chances should begin to diminish further overnight however a few CAMS show an isolated storm or two continuing even after midnight. There will be many areas that stay dry today and tonight. There is a weak signal for patchy fog tonight however given the clouds and precip chances we think vis should generally stay above 1 mile.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Temperatures: The trough with embedded vorts will be slow to move past the area Monday and Tuesday therefore high temps will most likely stay in the 80s. By Wednesday and Thursday, mid level heights look to rise and 850mb temps increase therefore highs should heat back up closer to if not just past 90 degrees.

Rain Chances: With the low remaining close to the area on Monday, rain chances will be isolated and generally less than 20 percent, mainly confined to areas south of I-44. Models vary on amount of storms therefore may need to slowly bump up pops there if the signal increases. Otherwise Tuesday and Wednesday looks mainly dry as the lift moves even further away. We do get into a little more active pattern late week as additional energy moves our way from the west - northwest. This is in response to a strengthening ridge out west. Rain chances increase Thursday night and Friday and the WPC does have a marginal risk for excessive rainfall during this period. Confidence decreases in rain chances for the weekend as there is uncertainty on how fast the ridge out west strengthens as well as how far north it expands.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Other than some scattered cumulus at times, VFR conditions should prevail through most of the TAF period. There is a low chance (around 30 percent) of a shower or thunderstorm coming close to the sites tonight however confidence is too low to include at this time. This low confidence also pertains to some MVFR vis for patchy fog around sunrise Monday. Winds will remain out of the north to northeast with speeds less than 10kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.