textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday. Highs near 100 with Heat Index values 100-105 can be expected. Several daily records may be tied or broken. - There is a less than 25% chance for isolated thunderstorms to form east of Hwy 65 this afternoon, especially toward central Missouri.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Unfortunately, nothing has changed from previous discussions regarding the heat. The high pressure system continues to dominate through the end of the week. It will keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through at least Saturday. The Heat Advisory now continues through Saturday evening, in part due to the apparent slowing of the incoming low pressure system. Heat Index values will continue to approach and exceed 100 degrees through the remainder of the week.

Widespread rain chances don't arrive until early next week, though there will be the potential for pulse thunderstorms again this afternoon. Conditions will be similar to yesterday afternoon, though coverage looks even more limited. While the severe risk looks minimal, as we learned from yesterday, any stronger cores that manage to find a pocket of stronger shear will be capable of downburst winds. This potential is nearly impossible to pin down given that deep-layer shear overall will be very lacking, but the best instability will be in the northeastern portions of the CWA toward central Missouri (not unlike yesterday). These areas of 2000+ J/Kg of CAPE will best support this scenario. Severe winds are unlikely, but HRRR output does depict a few strong cells capable of 40-50 mph gusts roughly in the areas we saw the strongest storms yesterday, quickly moving east into the St. Louis CWA. Again, most areas will remain dry today.

Lows will be in the low to mid 70s again tonight, another factor necessitating heat headlines to communicate the extended period of far above-normal warmth that could have compounding impacts to health and safety if proper precautions are not taken. CAMs running into Friday afternoon depict very tiny pop-up storms across roughly the northeastern half of Missouri with another day of very high temperatures and a small amount of shortwave energy breaking free to the south, but these are not expected to have much of impact, if they are able to form at all.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Friday and Saturday will still be hot as promised. As it stands, they look to be the last days that this high pressure will still fully have a grip on us. The approaching low pressure center begins to break down the high Saturday evening with the cold front approaching Sunday morning. Specifics on timing are difficult, but those in west-central Missouri may start to see precipitation during the early morning hours Sunday. With northeasterly movement initially, it will take some time for the front to clear the area. Most will still see highs in the mid to upper 90s Sunday, though overnight lows should manage to be several degrees cooler.

By Sunday afternoon, PoPs north of I-44 are up to 30-60%. They continue to spread southeast throughout the overnight and Monday, though they decrease as bit as the front becomes farther removed from the better support of the low. Those in south-central Missouri may not see as much rain. From Monday onward, highs for most are knocked down into the 80s.

The CPC 8-14 day outlook is showing a 50-60% chance to end September with above normal temperatures...but the 3-4 week outlook has equal chances for above and below normal temperatures. So, perhaps we can hold out some hope for the start of October.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. SE-SW winds under 10kts become light and variable after 18Z. Skies start clear with developing Cu in the afternoon, both in form of typical fair-weather and potentially small pulse thunderstorms roughly along the I-44 corridor. This potential is low, and coverage will be sparse.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 17: KSGF: 96/1953 KJLN: 95/1953 KVIH: 97/1953 KUNO: 97/1953

September 18: KSGF: 95/2019 KJLN: 97/2022 KVIH: 95/1953 KUNO: 96/1972

September 19: KSGF: 96/1954 KJLN: 99/2024 KUNO: 97/1954

September 20: KSGF: 97/1954 KJLN: 99/1954 KVIH: 95/1954 KUNO: 97/1954

September 21: KUNO: 95/1955

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 17: KSGF: 73/1978

September 18: KSGF: 74/1931

September 19: KSGF: 73/1931

September 20: KSGF: 74/2018

September 21: KSGF: 73/1931

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.