textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for record high temperatures today and tomorrow. Highs today in the lower to middle 80s. Highs on Thursday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is 20 to 30 degrees above average for late March.

- Elevated to locally Significant fire danger on Thursday with hot, dry, and windy conditions. Additional Elevated Fire danger through the upcoming weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) along a frontal passage Thursday night into Friday morning. Latest trends suggest little to no strong to severe thunderstorms, with the Marginal (1 of 5) Risk being removed from the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Through Tonight: An upper-level ridge has nudged into the region today, supporting a substantial warming trend. Highs this afternoon push into the lower to middle 80s in response 850mb temperatures reaching to 16 to 20 deg C. A bit cooler to the east, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Regardless, a few record highs remain in jeopardy this afternoon (see Climate section). Meanwhile, southwest winds are ramping up, with wind gusts along and west of Highway 65 around 20 to 30 mph. This is associated with a tightening pressure gradient as an aforementioned lee low shifts into the Central Plains. Low- level moisture will work to impinge into the area as seen with dewpoints climbing into the 50s. However, the drier airmass will be tough to overcome, with minimum relative humidity (RH) values around 35-45% this afternoon. In the vicinity of dry fuels, the warm, gusty, and dry conditions supports Elevated fire weather through the remainder of the late afternoon.

For tonight, breezy southwest winds linger with a mild night ahead. Overnight lows look to fall into the lower to middle 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Thursday-Friday: As we progress into Thursday, the ridge extends a bit further east with a shortwave building through the Central Plains. This will support additional warming. Highs are progged to reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is 20 to 30 degrees above normal for late March, with record highs likely to be broken. Strong southwest winds will accompany this system, with afternoon wind gusts approaching 25 to 35 mph. A few localized wind gusts may approach 40 mph across southeast KS into southwest MO, though not expected to be widespread in nature. Meanwhile, dry air will mix down through the afternoon, setting the stage for another day of Elevated to Significant Fire weather conditions. Additional details on fire weather can be found in the Fire Weather AFD section.

The attention then turns towards the potential of showers and thunderstorms along an approaching cold front on Thursday night. The entire area looks to remain dry through Thursday afternoon and evening as a result of a strong cap in place. The environment will be characterized by strong dynamics with ample shear to support organized convection, with modest instability. However, the most favorable environment appears to come during the period in which a strong cap keeps the area convection free. Thus, as scattered showers and thunderstorms chances (50-80%) increase Thursday night, instability will be on the downward trend with the better environment north and east into the Ohio River Valley. Given the trends in the latest CAMs and environment, the chances of seeing any strong to severe thunderstorms has decreased. This aligns well with the latest SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook, that removed portions of central MO from a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk. Expectations are for instability to be very limited and elevated in nature as the front moves through Thursday night. At most, some sub-severe hail may occur in a strong thunderstorm or two across central MO. However, most activity is expected to remain of the garden variety.

The front moves through the area rather quickly into Friday morning, with rainfall amounts expected to remain limited to a half inch or less. The greatest rainfall amounts appear to occur across central MO, with amounts decreasing towards a tenth of an inch or less further to the south and west. Given the lower end amounts of forecast rainfall, flash flooding is not expected with this system.

Rain chances shift south with the frontal passage into Friday morning/afternoon, as gusty north winds build in behind. This will make for a rather chilly Friday afternoon with highs in the middle to upper 50s, to perhaps lower 60s across southern MO. However, with the lingering clouds and gusty north winds it will feel cooler. Additional Elevated fire weather conditions appear to linger on Friday and through the weekend ahead. More details are outlined in the Fire Weather AFD section.

Saturday-Sunday: A gradual rebound in temperatures through the weekend, with a warming trend late weekend into early next week. While ensembles depict some variance, the general consensus is for above normal temperatures. Highs in the 70s by Sunday, in addition to widespread fire weather conditions once again.

Next Week: As we turn the tables into early next week, guidance is coming into better agreement on a potentially active pattern in addition to above normal temperatures. CPC 8 to 14 Day Outlooks favor above normal temperatures and precipitation through the beginning of April as we get into southwest flow aloft. Highs appear to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Thanks to dry southwesterly surface flow, the region can expect VFR flight conditions though this forecast period. Surface winds will be breezy with gusts this afternoon and and overnight from 20 to 30mph at times.

With an advancing storm system expected to move through the Ozarks Thursday night, increasingly strong middle level winds in advance of the system, will bring the potential for low level wind shear across the region from around midnight tonight through sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Fire Weather Conditions Tonight through Thursday:

A dry airmass will be in place across the region tonight through most of the day Thursday as breezy southwesterly winds attempt to bring some moisture into the Ozarks. This moisture however will lag and struggle as it makes the long trek from the Gulf across New Mexico and west Texas into the Ozarks in advance of a front that will move through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning. In advance of the front, the surface pressure gradient will tighten and allow for increasing winds and gusts. Winds will increase beginning this afternoon through tonight and through Thursday. Expect gusts tonight from 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph by Thursday afternoon.

Relative humidity values today will struggle, despite slow moisture advection occuring with southerly winds. Despite dew points in the 50s, afternoon highs in the 80s will keep afternoon RH's in the 30 to 40 percent range. Temperatures on Thursday will be warming in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with little change in the moisture content of the air. This will likely produce RH's in the 30 to 35 percent range with locally lower RH's in the upper 20 percents.

The combinations of warm, near record highs, very windy conditions and low atmospheric moisture combine to bring Elevated to locally Significant fire weather concerns for the Ozarks region. These parameters are combined in the HDWI (Hot dry windy index) which is producing 90-100 percent probabilities of being in the top 90th percentile of seasonally dry fire weather potential. Locations across far southeastern Kansas are even showing 90-100 percent probabilities of being in the 95th percentile with the rest of the Ozarks around the 70-80 percentile. Another index that indicated fire weather potential is the Fosberg index. For the region on Thursday, the index ranges from 35 to 45. In general, an index of 50 or greater indicates high potential for significant wildfire growth.

Looking at fuel conditions across the region, reading today from most of the areas RAWS sties indicated moisture from 7-10 percent. This indicates that fuels are available for fire starts. Another note on fuels, the hard freeze the region experienced on March 16-17, which saw lows reach the lower to middle teens across the region, following a period from late February through the Freeze of temperatures from 5 to 20 degrees above average for that time of year, caused significant impacts to early vegetative growth in the region. Some anecdotal reports indicated that the tops of grasses and other woody plants as well as early growth on trees was flash frozen, killing the tops of the grass. This adds to the available fuel load for fires.

Taking all this into account, Thursday will need to be monitored very closely for Elevated to Significant fire weather potential. Temperatures will be unseasonable hot, winds will be gusty from 30 to 40mph, relative humidities will be in the 25-40 percent range and fuels will remain dry and available. While the relative humidities are slightly above the <25 percent threshold for Red Flag Warning criteria, the strong winds can overcome this allowing for increased drying to occur. In general, when winds reach or exceed the RH's, this can overcome the RH's.

Friday through Sunday:

The front that will bring rain to the region Friday morning will move through rather quickly. As a result, rainfall amounts are expected to be limited to 0.10 to 0.50 inches. Behind the front another exceptionally dry airmass will filter into the region. This will allow for RH's to only recover into the 30-45 percent range Friday and fall into the 15-25 percent range by Sunday. Winds will be breezy Friday and Saturday allowing for continued Elevated fire weather conditions. However, winds and gusts will increase Sunday afternoon, which may bring another round of Elevated to Significant fire weather and the potential for fire weather headlines for the Ozarks.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KSGF: 83/1910 KJLN: 88/1910 KVIH: 80/1959 KUNO: 79/2012

March 26: KSGF: 82/2020 KJLN: 86/1910 KVIH: 83/2020 KUNO: 86/2020

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.