textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisory in effect for the entire area until 6 AM Monday. 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph are possible. The advisory may be extended in time with future updates. - 20-50% chances for a quick line of showers and isolated thunderstorms to move through east of Highway 65. Low chance (5%) for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

- Much colder by Monday morning, with single digit wind chills. Highs on Monday only reach into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

A look at the satellite water vapor imagery early this morning shows a fetch of moisture that stretches from the plains into the eastern Pacific from the Baja Mexico region. This moisture is feeding into surface low pressure located across western/central Kansas. It is this low that will move to the east through the day today and will drive a cold front through the Ozarks this afternoon.

Ahead of the storm system and cold front that will move through the region this afternoon, strong southerly winds will continue to stream warm air and moisture into the region. Early morning temperatures across the Ozarks were in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. These would be average overnight July/August temperatures, not late December overnight temperatures for the Ozarks. The combination of the warm air and moisture advection along with low cloud cover was helping to keep the warm air in place across the Ozarks.

With the front approaching the region this morning, the Ozarks will wake to what may normal be a summer morning with the current temperatures. Continued southerly winds, that will increase as the surface low in the plains moves northeasterly, will bring windy conditions with sustained winds from 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 35 to 45mph at times. As a result, a Wind Advisory in in place starting at 6am this morning.

With the low lifting to the northeast, a trailing cold front will begin to move into the regions around sunrise this morning and through the Ozarks by this evening. Winds will remain strong ahead of and behind the cold front. There is an emphasis on cold with this cold front. As the front moves east across the region, temperatures will plummet from the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. For some locations, record highs may again be reached today. Strong cold air advection will replace the warm conveyor belt that has been in place the past few days. This will allow temperatures to fall rapidly behind the front.

Temperatures in the 60s to around 70 to begin the day will fall into the 30s to lower 40s by sunset.

As the front moves through the region, the strong forcing will allow for the potential for a thin line of showers and isolated storms. The previous forecast remains nearly the same with limited CAPE in the 100-300j/kg range for the most part. The winds field are exceptional with 0-6km wind shear in the 70-90kt range (80-95% range). If any storms along the expected thin line of storms can develop, there will be the potential for isolated strong or severe storms. With 60-70 kts of bulk shear and the dynamic wind field, wind gusts with the convection will be no problem. With the strong shear and wind field, some parts of the line may see gusts up to 50-60 mph. Otherwise, expect winds to gust up to 40-50 mph as the line passes and moves east.

As mentioned before, in the wake of the line of showers, temperatures will quickly and sharply drop, with lows tonight bottoming out in the teens. Winds are expected to fall off overnight but with gusts up to 2o-30 mph. After today, this will feel exceptionally cold as wind chills fall to the -5 to 0 F range across central Missouri, and between 0-10 F across southern Missouri for Monday morning.

Highs Monday will struggle to reach 30 F, even with sunny skies. Lows will then fall into the teens Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring another morning of single digit wind chills despite relatively weak winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 130 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Another warming trend will then follow for the middle to end of the week as we remain on the temperature roller coaster this week. The pattern through the week looks to be northwest flow with ridging across the west coast. If the ridge shifts east or west, this will have an impact of the weather and temperatures we receive into next weekend. As a result, there is some significant spread in the potential temperatures from Thursday into the weekend.

For the most part, most model members are leaning to a gradual warming trend into the middle of the week, bringing temperatures just above normal in the lower 50s with lows in the upper 20s.

There is little in the pattern through the next 7 to 10 days to indicate any potential for any significant precipitation. With ongoing drought across the area, little relief can be expected. This may allow for Fire Weather concerns as we head into the middle to end of the week with dry weather, slightly warmer weather and and winds that develop.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Surface observations show sustained southwesterly winds at 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts. These winds speeds are expected to prevail for the entire TAF period, but shifting to northwesterly with a cold fropa. This will occur at JLN just before 18Z, then at SGF around 1930-2030Z, then BBG around 21Z. With the wind shift and fropa, cigs will become OVC at around 2kft, before clearing out a few hours afterwards.

Some light flurries may impact JLN and SGF between the 21-01Z timeframe, but chances of this are very, very low (<5-10%).

CLIMATE

Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

December 27 Temperature Records Broken:

New Record High Temperatures: KSGF: 77 (previous record of 71 set in 2005/1971) KJLN: 79 (previous record of 70 set in 2008/2005) KVIH: 70 (previous record of 69 set in 2008)

Record High Temperatures:

December 28: KSGF: 75/1928 KJLN: 69/1984 KVIH: 62/2019 KUNO: 69/1984

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.