textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, on Saturday and especially Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Satellite imagery nicely shows an upper-level trough swinging through the Midwest and Ohio Valleys this afternoon with a prominent cold front draped southward from the parent surface low in southern Quebec. Breezy northwest winds behind this front have been aiding in cold air advection across the Missouri Ozarks. At the surface, a layer of dry air persists with dew point depressions around 15 degrees across the region. At the 850 mb level, greater saturation is allowing a mid-level cloud deck to fill in, with even a few weak echoes being observed on radar.

Blustery Fall Day:

The cold air advection and cloud deck will prevent much warming today, capping high temperatures in the mid 50s. Furthermore, the increased pressure gradient on the backside of the aforementioned trough is producing frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, making conditions feel a bit blustery--especially compared to the heat as of late. A fairly shallow saturated layer around 900 to 800 mb may allow for a few topographically aided sprinkles across the Ozarks this afternoon, but minimal if any accumulations will come of it.

Frost Potential Saturday and Especially Sunday Morning:

Clouds will gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight into Saturday morning. As they do, winds will also begin to weaken. These more favorable conditions for radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across northwest portions of the forecast area tonight. There may be a brief 1-2 hour window where skies are clear enough, temperatures are cold enough, and winds are light enough that some patchy frost could develop, but overall the better conditions will be across central and northern Missouri.

Confidence in frost development is higher Sunday morning thanks to clear skies and light winds. Model probabilities of temperatures 35 deg or less (a proxy for frost potential) are highest across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri, ranging between 60-95%. Here, frost is more likely to be widespread. The footprint of probabilities of temperatures 32 deg or less is smaller--roughly limited to the valleys of the eastern Ozarks--ranging between 30-50%. Elsewhere, patchy frost will still be possible as probabilities range between 25-50%. A Frost Advisory may be needed in a future forecast update.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The long term forecast is characterized by the return of dry and increasingly warm conditions. Ensembles show agreement in developing a broad, amplified ridge across the central CONUS next week as a trough digs through the Pacific coast. This means the return of southerly winds, warm air advection, ample sunshine, and by mid- week, the return of above-average temperatures. Indeed, small NBM temperature spreads lend themselves to high forecast confidence

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Near-MVFR clouds will continue to fill in across southern Missouri at the beginning of the TAF period, with ceilings generally between 3000 to 4000 ft.

A few isolated pockets of sprinkles will move southeast through the area this afternoon; no mention was included in the current TAFs as no impacts to ceiling or visibility are expected.

Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 30 kt this afternoon will gradually wind down after 00Z before shifting to the northeast after 12Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.