textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-40% chance of a light wintry mix this morning. No accumulation or impacts expected. Many locations will remain dry.

- Cooler conditions into early next week then warming back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a shortwave currently moving through Kansas. This incoming lift, combined with a weak low level jet nosing into the area has allowed for the development of light precipitation across Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas. The 00z KSGF sounding did show significant dry air aloft therefore it has taken some time to saturate the low levels. 100-200j/kg of MU CAPE was present from northeast OK into northern AR therefore some sleet showers and even a few lightning strikes have occurred down there from time to time. The surface freezing line was roughly north of the Highway 54 corridor with most other locations in the middle to upper 30s.

Light Wintry Mix Through This Morning: Latest high res guidance indicates that as the shortwave moves closer to the area, strong lift will continue to saturate the low levels with pockets of light rain/light snow/light sleet showers moving through the area this morning. We have nudged up precip chances ever so slightly however given temps near freezing and ground temps above freezing, still not expecting much if any accumulation or impacts. There are indications that this light precip could linger through mid morning for locations east of Highway 65. HREF guidance suggests low/mid level clouds will also persist into the afternoon before some late day sunshine returns.

Below Average Temps through Monday: Given the cloud cover today and northerly winds, highs in the 40s are likely. Colder air aloft will settle in for tonight and with clear skies, lows will likely drop into the teens and lower 20s. On Sunday, northwest winds will increase with gusts up to 30mph. Mean 850mb temps look to be in the -5 to -8C range and even with full sunshine, highs will struggle to climb through the 30s. Many locations along and north of Highway 60 will most likely not reach 40 degrees on Sunday. This will set up an even colder Sunday night/Monday morning as the 1042mb surface high moves down into Iowa. Lows in the teens are likely with some locations dropping close to 10 degrees. While winds will be light, wind chill values in the single digits will occur Monday morning. Another cold day is expected Monday with highs again struggling to reach 40 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Warming Temperatures Tuesday through Friday: Latest ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a pattern change back to a large mid level ridge across the Rockies by early to mid next week. This will allow for a return to southwest winds and warming temperatures across the area. We will need to monitor the return/increasing southwest winds and warmer temps for Tuesday as there are indications of potential elevated fire danger conditions. Temps look to reach the 60s for at least Tuesday and Wednesday.

Ensembles still diverge Wednesday night into Thursday as there are indications of shortwave energy dropping down into the area from the northwest. These northwest flow systems typically do not have alot of moisture and confidence is low with rain chances around 30 percent or less. Given the lack of widespread rainfall over the next several days, rainfall deficits will continue to increase across the area, exacerbating drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Cloud cover will continue around 6kft through early afternoon with some partial clearing by late afternoon. There is a 20-30 percent chance of light snow at SGF early in the TAF period however will not include at this time. Winds will remain out of the north to northeast this morning with a gradual turn to the northwest this afternoon with speeds around 10-15kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.