textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (2 out of 5) to Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/early evening as a line of showers and storms move across the area. The primary risk will be damaging winds, with a low tornado risk across south-central Missouri. - Light snow will develop across portions of the area Sunday evening behind cold front/storms, with snow lingering into the overnight hours as much colder air moves into the region.

- Gusty northerly winds of 40 to 50 mph will occur behind the front Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night.

- Below average temperatures with near record lows in the teens will occur on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will quickly rebound to above average by the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Surface high pressure was moving to the southeast out of the Northern Plains towards the Great Lakes early this morning. This was allowing for dry flow from easterly winds, which will continue into the morning hours before becoming southerly in response to the high continuing to move east and a developing area of low pressure in the central Rockies/Plains.

As the storm system in the Plains moves east through today and tonight, winds will increase and become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens. By this afternoon, gusts of 15 to 25 mph will occur at times and continue into this evening. Highs will warm into the 70s this afternoon, with mild conditions thanks to southerly winds and slowly increasing relative humidities. Overnight lows will then cool into the middle to upper 50s.

By Sunday morning, an upper-level trough will dive southeast into the central Plains and push the previously mentioned surface low across the Plains and towards the Ozarks. In advance of the associated surface front, warm air and moisture advection will be ongoing, setting the stage for potential severe weather as the front moves into and through the Ozarks region Sunday afternoon into the evening hours.

The pressure gradient will continue to tighten ahead of the surface low and cold front into Sunday morning, with south to southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. As the low moves east across Iowa on Sunday, the cold front will move east across southwest Missouri. This frontogenesis will allow for the development of strong to severe storms as the front translates eastward Sunday afternoon into the evening.

Instability ahead of the front remains in question and will depend of the speed and timing of the front. Ensemble output indicates most of the region will see less than 500 J/kg of CAPE, however shear will be rather high thanks to a strong 40-60kt LLJ that will move over the region. Additionally, an upper-level 90-110kt jet max will provide additional synoptic lift as it moves over the region, rounding the base of the upper trough. With the initial cap in place, limited instability, and timing concerns, expectations remain that the best areas for potential severe weather associated with the front will be generally east of Highway 63 Sunday afternoon into the evening.

The main concern would be damaging winds as downdrafts from precipitation loading combine with synoptic winds of 30 to 40 mph, potentially producing winds that may be in excess of 60 to 70mph in the strongest storms, if they develop. Additionally, with ample shear, isolated QLCS tornadoes will be possible in areas where the line-normal shear component becomes favorable for spin ups. Again, this all hinges on the speed of the front.

The front should have moved through the Ozarks by Sunday evening. Behind the front, an arctic airmass will rush in to fill the void with temperatures falling from the middle to upper 60s afternoon highs in advance of the front, to the upper 20s by midnight. This cold air will be ushered into the Ozarks by 40 to 50 mph northerly winds. There may be occasions when synoptic winds gust as high as 60 mph. The cold air will move in quickly enough to produce a change over from rain, associated with the wrap around precipitation from the upper low and front, to snow fairly rapidly in the wake of the front.

Accumulating snow potential will be generally best along and north of Highway 60 and east of Highway 65, but snow flakes will be possible across the entire area. There will be the potential for a dusting of snow with locally 1-2". With ground temperatures initially warm from the recent warm weather, accumulations will initially be minimal. However, where any moderate bands of snow can develop, there will be the possibility for the snow to melt then refreeze as the colder temperatures move into the area. This resulting flash freeze might cause slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses. The strong northerly winds will also cause blowing snow, which will reduce visibilities with any bands of moderate snow.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Lows will drop into the teens Monday morning with near-record readings possible (see the Climate section below for more information). Wind chill values will be in the single digits to around zero Monday morning thanks to continued windy conditions. Highs will only warm into the 30s Monday afternoon. The cold airmass will linger across the region into Tuesday morning, with morning lows again in the teens to around 20 degrees, putting records in jeopardy again for some locations.

The colder weather will begin to moderate Tuesday and through the rest of next week. Ensemble model members are in good agreement with temperatures returning to the 70s by midweek, with highs in the 80s possible by the middle to end of next week. A few model 90th percentile outputs for highs next weekend even have temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. This would send the Ozarks from winter to summer in one week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Flight conditions through tonight will remain VFR with LLWS the main concern during this evening and the overnight hours. Surface winds will be generally easterly from 5 to 10mph but will shift out of the south by this afternoon and become gusty into this evening.

A strong cold front is then expected to move through the region SUnday afternoon in to the evening.

CLIMATE

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A cold arctic airmass will bring a brief return of winter temperatures to the Ozarks for Monday (March 16) and Tuesday (March 17) mornings. For some locations, mornings lows may fall to near record temperatures with forecast lows in the middle to upper teens. These temperatures may have impacts on early blooming vegetation thanks to a warm previous two week period of temperatures from 5 to 15 degrees above average. Of the past 13 days, 10 have been warmer than average.

Record Low Temperatures:

March 16: KSGF: 16/1895 KJLN: 19/1988 KVIH: 14/1900 KUNO: 16/1988

March 17: KSGF: 13/1900 KJLN: 16/1906 KVIH: 8/1900 KUNO: 18/1958

Record Low Highs:

March 16: KUNO: 32/1970

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.