textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to locally significant fire conditions expected today and Tuesday, mainly west of Highway 65, as RHs drop to 20-30% amid gusty winds. Fire weather risk remains elevated through the week.

- Near record lows again tonight into Tuesday morning with lows ranging from the lower teens to lower 20s.

- Temperatures will quickly rebound to upper 60s/low 70s by midweek and continue warming into the weekend, with highs in the 80s by Friday, and a 25-50% chance of highs >90 F on Saturday. Those temperatures would challenge record highs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts a very deep, energetic, but compact mid- and upper- level trough axis is currently shifting east of the area, extending from central Canada southward into the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast. Abnormally meridional northerly flow is associated with this wave, even for the dynamic climatological timeframe that is March. As such, cold Arctic air as overspread the region with the responsible surface cold front already well south and east of the area. Temperatures currently in the upper teens to upper 20s have struggled to keep up with the forecast. Surface high pressure is currently situated all across the Plains States, with the surface pressure gradient traversing east through our area. This has kept northwesterly winds gusty with observed sustained winds at 15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph.

Elevated to locally significant fire conditions west of Hwy 65:

As temperatures have been struggling to climb (we may not reach our forecasted high temperature range of the upper 20s to middle 30s, potentially giving SGF its record low high for the day), dewpoints have also been slow to drop. This has kept relative humidity values in the 30-60% range early this afternoon amid the observed gusty conditions. With a few hours of warming and boundary layer mixing left for today, the driest areas (west of Highway 65), may still reach the 20-25% range (30-60% chance). So, there is a 30-60% chance of Red Flag conditions being met west of Highway 65, especially along and west of I-49. However, current RAWs sites show fuels at 10-15% and have been slow to drop thanks to recent rain and overachieving RHs. With that in mind, not anticipating a Red Flag Warning for any areas, though elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions will still be in place this afternoon west of Highway 65.

Near record lows again tonight into Tuesday morning:

The surface high pressure will shift eastward into our area tonight, diminishing wind speeds to light and variable. The center of the high pressure is forecast to be centered over our area by 7 AM Tuesday morning. Due to the calmer winds and clear skies, radiational cooling will bring temperatures down into the middle teens to lower 20s, potentially lower in low-lying valley areas. As such, some record lows may be challenged again Tuesday morning. Check the Climate section below for the current records and forecast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Elevated to locally significant fire conditions Tuesday:

A warm front at the back edge of the surface high pressure system will push north through the area during the day Tuesday. This will be brought upon by quickly rising heights aloft as the compact meridional trough exits east of the area and ridging to the west builds into the area. With the warm front passage, winds will begin to shift southerly, increasing to 13-18 mph, especially along and west of Highway 65. Warm air advection will initiate, and as per usual with these setups, moisture will likely lag a bit behind. This will combo 13-18 mph sustained winds, gusting up to 20-25 mph at times, with afternoon RH values in the 20-30% range. This will once again bring elevated to locally significant fire danger west of Highway 65, especially as temperatures warm into the lower 40s to middle 50s, and fuels continue to dry out. We will continue to monitor how winds and RHs trend to see if there's any increasing chance for near Red Flag conditions (currently <15%).

15-20% chance of light precip north of a Osceola to Salem line:

As the warm front continues to push northward, a subtle mid- level shortwave/vorticity maxima will drop through the flow and overlap the front. This will bring some forcing for a 15-20% chance of precipitation, generally north of an Osceola to Salem line where the warm front will be positioned. While short-range models do show some simulated reflectivity, soundings show a moderately deep layer of pretty dry air still in place, which may output only sprinkles/flurries up that way. As for whether they will be sprinkles/flurries, HREF is pretty confident (>80%) that it will be mostly rain as temperatures stay above 38 F, however, if the warm front is slightly southward, some flurries may mix in. Either way, little to no impacts are expected at this time.

Quick warming trend mid-week; Highs in the 80s by Friday:

Longwave ridging will continue to build into the area Wednesday and onwards. Both NAEFs and ECMWF ESATs show a very large area (from west of California, east to Kansas/Nebraska, and from the Baja Peninsula north to Montana) of record high geopotential heights at 500 and 200 mb for mid-March. It is no secret, then, that temperatures will warm quite a bit through the week as the ridging builds into the area. It will occur quite quickly with highs already reaching the upper 60s to middle 70s Wednesday, then the middle 70s to lower 80s Thursday. Most locations are forecast to reach 80 F or greater Friday. Lows will follow the same trend with readings in the lower 40s to upper 40s Wednesday and Thursday night, and the lower to middle 50s Friday night.

Record highs to be challenged Saturday:

The warmest day of the forecast period is expected to be Saturday at NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads are currently 82-91 for Springfield. The NBM/WPC deterministic have slowly been shifting up the spread. Would not be surprised to see this trend continue. The NBM currently gives a 25-50% chance for some areas to see >90 F Saturday. These temperatures will challenge record highs (crazy how we are going from record lows to record highs in just a few days). See the Climate section below for details on those.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A warm front will begin to lift through southern Missouri after 12Z Tuesday and shift winds to the south-southwest. Throughout the afternoon, broken to scattered mid level and high clouds will move in from the Plains, though no reductions in flight category are expected.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Record Low Temperatures:

March 17: KSGF: 13/1900 | Forecast: 17 KJLN: 16/1906 | Forecast: 19 KVIH: 8/1900 | Forecast: 14 KUNO: 18/1958 | Forecast: 18

Record Low Highs:

March 16: KUNO: 32/1970 Forecast: 31

Record High Temperatures:

March 19: KUNO: 81/1969 | Forecast: 79

March 21: KSGF: 88/1916 | Forecast: 84 KJLN: 91/1907 | Forecast: 86 KVIH: 85/1904 | Forecast: 81 KUNO: 79/2011 | Forecast: 84

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.