textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal to record high temperatures will be possible on Tuesday. - Areas of fog will be possible tonight...especially over the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms move across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 413 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Synoptic Overview: The driving force for today's weather is an upper-level closed low/embedded shortwave that will quickly push from western Nebraska through the Great Lakes region by this evening. As the low weakens and becomes an open wave, it will be absorbed by a longwave trough located near New Brunswick. The surface low associated with this shortwave has begun occluding over northwest Missouri as the cold front crosses Kansas and catches the warm front pushing north across central Missouri. The low itself will weaken and become more diffuse as it travels from Kansas City area towards southern Illinois through the day today, dragging the trailing cold front with it. The other synoptic feature of note is a longwave trough digging into the southern California coast.

Today's Forecast: As morning precipitation moves east, cloud cover will slowly decrease through the day, bringing mostly sunny conditions by sunset. High temperatures will range from upper 70s in south- central Missouri/eastern Ozarks where the cold front will pass after peak daytime heating, to near 70 degrees in areas behind the cold front. Winds will calm through the day, changing from southerly to westerly/northwesterly behind the front. Overnight lows tonight in the 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 413 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Synoptic Evolution: After the cold front passes through our area on Tuesday, it will stall to our south on Wednesday. The aforementioned trough pushing into the southern California coast will become a cut off low as it pushes into the lower Colorado River Basin, where it will pivot and begin lifting into the central Plains. Southerly flow will bring additional moisture from the Gulf as our stationary front turns to a warm front that will begin pushing back north through southern Missouri. As the wave pivots, numerous vort maxes will surge ahead and provide energy to fuel showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.

Models have continued to trend a little slower with the wave coming in off the coast, pushing the onset of precip chances later into Wednesday night. Ensemble mean PW values between 1.2-1.4" indicates that rainfall rates will be quite efficient, and deep-layer flow parallel to the front indicate that training will be a concern with these showers and thunderstorms. The combination of training and efficient warm rain processes has us watching for heavy rainfall and flooding potential from Wednesday night through the end of the rainfall Friday night. That being said, rainfall totals continue to decrease, with the most likely totals falling between 1-2", with highest amounts furthest south. QPF cluster analysis still shows differences in the spatial extent, width, and magnitude of the heavy rainfall corridor, so we will continue to monitor and update the forecast accordingly as higher-res models come into range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For the 18z TAFS, the warm front has pushed through the area and the trailing cold front was just about to push through JLN as of 17z. The lower clouds were diminishing and we should be in VFR until later tonight. There is a good signal for fog developing at BBG/SGF late tonight. For now have lowered visibility to 1 mile at both sites, but may need to be lowere by the 00z or 06z forecasts if the trend continues. The fog should clear up by around 15z with VFR conditions for the remainder of the morning. Some gusty southwest winds ahead of the cold front to northwest behind the front will be possible this afternoon up to 25 kts, but should diminish to light and variable after 00z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the 55-59 degree range. Average low temps for middle November are in the 34-36 degree range.

Tuesday November 18:

Record High Temperatures: Forecast:

KSGF: 78/1930 75 KJLN: 76/1999 75 KVIH: 74/1981 72 KUNO: 74/2017 77

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 20: Forecast: KUNO: 52/2007 51

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.