textproduct: Springfield
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- High confidence in dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Highs return to the middle to upper 80s through mid to late week.
- Monitoring for potential fire weather early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Today-Tonight: A ridge of high pressure continues to reinforce dry and quiet weather over the region today. Subtle increases in mid-level heights will support temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. The warmest temperatures will be focused along the Ozark Plateau and south. Meanwhile, a dry airmass remains intact with minimum afternoon relative humidity values around 20 to 30 percent. However, light northeast winds will continue to be a limiting factor for fire weather. Lows tonight fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s, with coolest temperatures across the eastern Ozarks.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Tuesday-Sunday: A gradual warm up of temperatures through mid to late week, with the jet stream displaced well to the north of the region. This warm up will feature temperatures 5 to 10+ degrees above normal for early October, with highs into the middle to upper 80s. At this time, it appears we should remain a few degrees shy of any records, but it will be worth monitoring.
The warm temperatures will be accompanied by dry weather this week and into next weekend. This includes daily minimum relative humidity values around 20 to 30 percent, with localized lower values. Given the ongoing drought and minimal recent rainfall, fuels continue to dry out as we progress into Fall. This would suggest the potential for localized elevated fire weather, though winds remain a limiting factor this week.
As this pattern continues into next week, we may begin to see an increased fire risk as ensemble guidance hint at an increase in winds. This is particularly a concern with a frontal passage early next week, which may be rather dry. At this time, there is still remaining uncertainty on the extent of fire weather concerns next week, but we will continue to monitor.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
High confidence in VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light northeast winds and ample amount of sunshine.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None. MO...None.
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