textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall through this morning. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM this morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with localized 3 inch totals are possible.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph is the main severe hazard.

- Heat Advisory in effect Sunday through Thursday as daily heat indices climb to around 100 degrees. Little night time relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show the region in a zonal flow pattern with shortwave energy traversing the area. This energy continues to interact with a low level jet and a nearly stationary front over the area. The 00z KSGF sounding measured a very high PW value of 2.00 inches along with plentiful instability. Several clusters of storms continue across southern Kansas into northern and central Oklahoma. A batch of moderate rain was stretching into southern Missouri.

Thunderstorm and Heavy Rainfall Today: There are likely a few different MCVs (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) associated with thunderstorm clusters across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. These clusters and MCVs will likely move into the area early this morning and continue through at least late morning as the low level jet continues to aid in additional development. While the severe threat is marginal, flooding will be a concern as heavy rainfall rates occur. While the Flood Watch expires at 7am, some localized flooding could persist through the day.

As we go through the morning and early afternoon, we will need to pay close attention to where those MCVs are located. Any locations near or east of the MCVs will experience renewed thunderstorm potential. As instability increases with heating, more organized updrafts could develop. Heavy precip loading could create some localized downbursts with wind gusts to 60mph in the stronger storms. Latest HREF paintball plots suggest the highest potential for this would be east of Highway 65 in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, another hot and humid day is expected with highs in the 80s, locations west of Springfield will be the warmest with upper 80s expected if skies clear out fast enough.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Heat Advisory Sunday through Thursday: A pattern change commences Sunday through mid week as a 594dm mid level high builds in just east of the area. This essentially will shut down precip chances as much warmer air builds in aloft. Mean 850mb temps look to reach the 21-24C range. Comparing this to conditional climatology studies suggest a high likelihood of highs in the lower 90s. The green vegetation will likely keep us from reaching higher levels. However surface dewpoints will likely remain in the 70s. This will create daily heat indicies around 100 degrees with some locations coming close to 105 degrees, especially as we get closer to Tuesday and Wednesday. Not much relief is expected at night with lows in the 70s. Given that this is the first prolonged heat of the summer, we will issue a Heat Advisory for the entire area from Sunday through Thursday. The Heat Risk tool has the area reaching the Major category for almost the entire area which generally equates to heat related impacts affecting anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries. There is uncertainty in the upper level pattern past Thursday however can not rule out extending the Heat Advisory further in time.

Precip Chances: Overall chances remain low given the warm air aloft however we may see some low chances move in late in the week with perhaps some afternoon pulse storm potential as the ridge shifts a little further east. Confidence is low in these precip chances mid to late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Low confidence forecast for this morning as showers and storms attempt to move back towards the TAF sites however it remains unclear how widespread the storms are. Amendments are likely if storms do not make it into the sites. Brief periods of MVFR are possible within the storms. Otherwise conditions will begin to dry out this afternoon with VFR conditions likely. Low level wind shear is possible tonight at JLN and SGF. Surface winds will remain out of the south with a switch to the southwest during the afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.