textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected today through Wednesday.

- A pattern change brings 60-80% chances of widespread rain Thursday and possibly (15-35% chance) into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

An upper level ridge is over the region early this morning, with low level warm air advection occurring. 850mb temperatures will warm into 12 to 15C range today allowing highs to warm into the 60s today. Surface low pressure will move across the central Plains today, resulting in the pressure gradient tightening across the region today. As result southerly winds will increase and be gusty late this morning into this evening, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph at times.

A short wave trough will move across the area tonight. A dry air mass will be in place in the mid levels of the atmosphere which will limit the rain chances, though a sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out. The shortwave trough moves off to the east on Tuesday, as an upper level ridge builds back towards the area. Highs on Tuesday will range from near 60 across central Missouri to near 70 across far southern Missouri. The ridge will remain over the area on Wednesday with highs in the middle 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

An upper level low will dig south across the west coast early this week, then move northeast into and across the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A second upper level trough will move into the Pacific northwest during the middle of the week. Looking at long wave charts the upper level trough remains across the western CONUS through late week before moving east this weekend. As a result the upper level low will open up into the trough and move northeast through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will develop across the region as the lead trough moves north through the area. As the secondary trough digs into the southwest U.S. southwest flow will remain with the front moving east across the area Thursday into Friday with showers and storm chances occurring along the front at times. With the trough remaining to the southwest of the area on Thursday and an upper level southwest flow the air mass will not be much cooler on Thursday, but temperatures could be slightly cooler with rain and clouds occurring.

The ensemble model members then show the upper level trough across the southwestern U.S. moving across the region Friday into Saturday. A cooler air mass will move into the area with the trough as highs warm into the 50s on Friday and the 40s both days this weekend. Lows Saturday morning will cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s with lows in the lower 20s Sunday morning.

As the upper level trough moves northeast through the area this weekend there will be some precipitation chances. Showers and storms will be possible long a front with the system and there will be some wrap around precipitation on the back side of the system. The ensemble model members differ on the exact locations and amounts with this system, but overall keep the better chances for the wrap around precipitation north of the area and the showers ands storms to the south and east of the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Some IFR ceilings have developed across extreme southeastern Kansas early this morning. These lower ceilings are expected to remain west of the TAF sites this morning as these clouds start to dissipate through the morning hours.

Low level wind shear will be possible early this morning and again this evening. Southerly winds will increase this afternoon and be gusty at times into early this evening.

A weak front will move through the region tonight and winds will become more southwesterly overnight and westerly on Tuesday behind the front. No precipitation will occur with the front. Some mid and high level clouds will occur with the front and there is a low chance for a brief period of MVFR ceilings with the front tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.