textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Residual flooding will continue into tonight following rainfall over the last 36 hours.

- Gusty southerly winds of 30-40 mph possible Wednesday.

- 15-30% risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Rain chances return again for next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Flood waters across the Ozarks were slowly receding early this afternoon but will remain elevated through tonight and into Monday as a result of heavy rains over the past 36 hours.

Satellite imagery early this afternoon showed the back edge of lingering cloud cover over areas generally along and south of I-44 behind the progressive cold front that moved through the region last night. A few showers or sprinkles were occurring on the back edge of the clouds but as clouds continue south, so will the light isolated showers/sprinkles. Clouds are forecast to have moved south of the region by early this afternoon with only patchy fair weather clouds remaining into this evening.

An cool Canadian area of high pressure will begin to filter into the area this evening and overnight into Monday which will help to keep temperatures this afternoon the the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows in the 50s. This high pressure will then remain in place over the region through Monday evening before the next system begins to shove it south and east of the area Tuesday morning. Highs Monday afternoon will again be in the 70s.

With the high in place tonight, skies are expected to clear, winds will become light, around 5 mph, and lingering moisture will remain. This set up may allow for some patchy areas of fog to develop. This may occur in valleys and low areas sheltered from winds. If this does occur, visibilities may fall below 3 miles at times.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The area of cool high pressure will begin to shift south and east of the Ozarks late Monday night into Tuesday morning as a weakening cold front begins to push across the Plains and into the Ozarks region. Models and ensemble then bring some rain potential for the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning with the front slowing, stalling and washing out across far southern Missouri. Probabilistic forecasts have 20-30 percent chances for up to a tenth of an inch of rain with this from and 40-50 percent for at least a hundredth of an inch. Compared to the past 36 hours, this will be very light and is not expected to have any impacts.

The washed out boundary will move slowly to the south as the next system moves through the upper level northwesterly flow patter into the Ozarks for Wednesday. The tightening pressure gradient between these two systems will lead to increasing winds during the day Wednesday with winds from 30 to 40mph not out of the question. With saturated soils and if isolated higher gusts occur, some trees may be impacted. By Wednesday night a more robust cold front will move through the region brining with it the next potential severe weather for the region. This will occur as temperatures Wednesday climb into the middle 80s thanks to low level warm and moisture advection into the region.

In advance of the front, a warm and unstable airmass will be in place as a surface low develops over the central to northern Plains and moves east across the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front through the Ozarks Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. LREF joint probabilities for > 2,000 SBCAPE and > 3 kts deep layer shear remained in the 40-70% range from the previous forecast. Other ensemble guidance is also highlighting this period for severe weather. Confidence with this system remains low but will be monitored through the middle of the week.

Another area of high pressure moves into the Ozarks behind the Wednesday night system with additional rain chances in the wings for next weekend.

Overall, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with the remainder of the week seeing highs near to below average for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low cloud cover will continue to move to the south this afternoon behind last nights cold front. Ceilings will initially be MVFR for the regions terminals, but will improve to VFR this evening as cloud cover slides south of the region.

Surface winds will be light and northerly this evening into tonight with winds dropping of to 5mph or less by Monday morning. With clear skies and light winds, patchy fog may be a factor Monday morning but current confidence in coverage and location keep mention out of the TAFS.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.