textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds will result in near single digit wind chills this morning as colder air moves into the Ozarks. - A system will bring a 35-70% chance of precipitation Monday into Monday night. Models favor snow for precipitation type, but a wintry mix of snow, light freezing rain, and/or sleet could occur over far south-central Missouri. Confidence in precipitation amounts is limited, with potential for some areas to only see trace amounts.

- Precipitation chances trending upward for Thursday night into Friday, currently at 30-40%. Model spread is currently still too high to put any certainty to forecast precipitation types.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Breezy winds & cold air result in near single digit wind chills:

Current temperature observations put SW MO/SE KS down into the middle 20s as a strong surface cold front continues to surge east of the Mississippi River Valley. Continued cold air advection will further bring temperatures down into the lower 20s early this morning. With winds continuing to be around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph, wind chills this morning are expected to be in the upper single digits to lower teens.

While winds will diminish after this morning, persistent northerly flow along with polar surface high pressure traversing the Midwest will keep the weather dry with high temperatures quite cold today in the lower 30s. Then, lows tonight continue to be cold in the upper teens to middle 20s within a continued northerly flow regime.

30-40% chance of scattered bouts of precipitation mid-day Monday:

The dry weather will not last long, though, as another system currently over the northern Rockies (as evidenced by water vapor satellite imagery) is already poised to move through the region Monday into Monday night.

The forecast for this system, particular for our area in the Ozarks, continues to be tricky as we get positioned between the two "cores" involved with this system. The first core is associated with the shortwave trough diving in from the northern Rockies, bringing a swath of snow to KS/NE/north MO/south IA. The second core is associated with subtle shortwave energy lifting out of Mexico and the Gulf along the baroclinic zone established along the coast. This core is expected to bring rain in east TX and LA, with freezing rain in Arkansas. This the MoKsArOk and Ozarks region in the middle of the northern and southern system. Due to strong low-level warm air advection and downstream positive vorticity advection ahead of the cores, air will still be rising in this "in between" region, but given a sharp dry layer around 850-600 mb in model soundings, there is uncertainty in how much precipitation can be generated from this rising air during the day Monday.

With all that context, as the broad synoptic-scale ascent begins late Monday morning into the mid-afternoon hours, coverage of any precipitation will be determined by how quickly the low- levels can moisten. For that reason, there is only a 30-40% chance for precipitation during this time frame. If the strong 700 mb warm air advection can overcome low-level dry air, we can expect scattered showery precipitation to increase in coverage across the area. With the HREF giving a 50-100% chance for <32 F across the area, much of this will be in the form of light snow save for areas in extreme south-central Missouri (generally along the Highway 160 corridor) where light sleet and/or freezing rain is possible as a warm nose advects over the below freezing surface temperatures.

Most model guidance suggests these snow/sleet/freezing rain showers would be light in nature, creating little accumulation late Monday morning through mid-afternoon. That said, some wintry driving conditions would be experienced beneath any of these showers, so using caution while driving is recommended.

40-70% chance for a band of snow to move through later Monday:

The better chance for precipitation comes late Monday afternoon into the early overnight hours as the upper-level shortwave trough traverses Missouri. Within the jet core, strong 700 mb frontogenesis looks to force a SW to NE oriented band of snow that will quickly move from west to east between 4 PM and midnight.

Models differ on the southward extent of this band, but generally, the further north toward central MO you go, the better chance for greater snow accumulations with the snow band as its further into the colder air. The NBM 25th-75th accumulations range from 0 to 1 inch for much of the area, increasing to 0.5-2 inches along and north of Highway 54. 10% of the model members show a worst case scenario of 2-3 inches along and north of Highway 60.

CAMs are also not overly bullish on rates with this band due to the quick-moving nature. That said, 0.5-1 in/hr rates would be the upper-end of the spectrum, which could put down some light road accumulations for the evening commutes.

Potential for freezing rain and/or sleet in south-central MO:

During this period, light sleet and/or freezing rain will still be possible across extreme south-central MO. Analysis of HREF/REFS sounding plumes favors sleet a bit more than freezing rain as lapse rates within the warm nose are a bit more isothermal, leading to a deeper near-surface cold layer. Nevertheless, a mention of freezing rain is still warranted if any shifts in the storm tracks occur.

If freezing rain does occur, amounts of 0.01-0.05" seem most plausible, which is certainly enough for slick surfaces, so those along the Highway 160 corridor will need to be extra cautious if out driving.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Below normal temperatures continue for most days next week:

Following Monday's system, NBM temperature spreads point to continued below normal temperatures, save for a brief warm-up Wednesday as heights rise behind the exiting system. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 30s to lower 40s, with lows in the lower to middle 20s. Wednesday is the brief warm-up to near normal temperatures in the 40s. Wednesday night looks to have the coldest temperatures as a dry cold front surges south through the area. Lows look to be in the middle teens to lower 20s, with wind chills near 0 F toward central MO. Thursday's highs do not get very warm with temperatures in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Another warm-up is then possible Friday into Saturday, but that will depend on how the next system evolves at the end of the week.

Confidence increasing in next system Thursday night into Friday:

In previous discussions, we have mentioned how model spread was high late in the week, but a signal in deterministics being present for another system at some point. Well, models are starting to converge a little bit, with the best chance for the next system to move through Thursday night into Friday (30-40% chance). While we're getting a better idea of rough timing, LREF sounding profiles are still all over the place, revealing little certainty in what type of precipitation we could see from this system. Keep in touch with subsequent forecasts for more details.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Current satellite imagery shows MVFR cigs holding on across the Ozark Plateau, mainly impacting SGF. Much of the clouds over JLN and BBG have dissipated. Guidance continues to suggest these clouds holding on with at least SCT coverage at SGF through the period. There is question for how long BKN or greater coverage prevails at SGF, though satellite trends show the clouds dissipating from north to south.

Otherwise, winds will stay at 10-15 kts out of the northwest. Winds are then expected to shift to northeasterly after 00Z, diminishing to 5-10 kts, then settling out of the east by 07Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.