textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Sunday evening. The extreme heat will continue into Monday over SE KS and Western Missouri with areas of central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks seeing lower temps.

- There is a 20-40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely this week with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a 40-60 % chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the center of the mid level ridge continuing to shift west over Kansas and Oklahoma. A slightly more northwesterly flow aloft has allowed for some weak and subtle disturbances to move towards the area. The 00z KSGF sounding measured a 850mb temp of 25C which allowed for highs to reach the low 100s across the area yesterday. A surface front was analyzed to be very close to Rolla where winds had shifted to the northeast. A few elevated showers have developed across southwest Missouri. Temps were still warm with most areas in the 70s to around 80.

Hot Temperatures Today and Thunderstorm Chances: The surface front will continue to slowly shift southwest into more of the area during the day with an increasing cumulus field with day time heating. Between the front and a weak upper level disturbance, scattered pulse thunderstorms should form from early afternoon into the evening. The Ozarks Pulse Thunderstorm Index is showing the potential for a few thunderstorms to produce downbursts with damaging winds to 60mph and the SPC has a Marginal risk for severe storms across most of the area. This is due to a corridor of 2000-3000j/kg of ML CAPE, PW values around 1.75in and 0-3km theta e diffs around 25-30C. Not all locations will experience this activity however those with outdoor plans will need to remain weather aware during the afternoon and evening hours. A few CAMS and even the RAP are holding onto rain chances further after sunset across western Missouri, perhaps as late as midnight. This may be due to a weak disturbance moving through.

Outside of any thunderstorms, conditions will likely be similar to yesterday with hot conditions. High temps in the upper 90s to lower 100s will be common with heat indicies between 100 and 105. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect and some records will again be challenged. Locations east of Springfield will experience a drier airmass moving in and could keep highs and heat indicies a little lower than previous days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Above Average Temps This Week: The surface front and lower dewpoints will create an airmass gradient over the area on Monday. Locations west of Highway 65 will likely experience highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with dews in the middle/upper 60s. Areas further northeast towards Rolla will experience highs in the lower to middle 90s with dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There are some CAMS and short range models showing lower temps and dews further west which is creating a little uncertainty. We may need to extend the Extreme Heat Warning for locations west of Springfield into Monday in future updates if confidence in hotter temps increases.

Ensembles are then in strong agreement that the mid level ridge will reassert itself over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for highs again to surge into the 90s to low 100s with the hottest temps west of Springfield. Additional records will be challenged. We will need to monitor for the potential for more heat headlines. Surface low pressure across the plains may set up a pressure gradient which would allow for southerly wind gusts of 15-20mph during the afternoons. This would create elevated fire conditions, especially west of Springfield and in the worst drought areas.

Rain Chances Late Week: A stronger shortwave looks to move through the northern plains on Wednesday, sending a front into the area. Rain chances have now increased into the 40-60% range into Thursday with this frontal passage. Lower mid level heights should keep highs from reaching the record levels that we have been experiencing however above average temps are still expected late week. Ensemble variance then increases next weekend as another disturbance moves into the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the area through the afternoon and evening. There remains some uncertainty on the extent of coverage, thus PROB30 groups are being utilized to capture this activity. Brief periods of MVFR flight conditions may accompany any activity over the terminals, with ceilings as low as 3000 to 5000 feet, in addition to reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles. Otherwise, light northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots, becoming more east to southeast into tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 6: KSGF: 100/1960 KJLN: 101/1954 KUNO: 101/1990

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KVIH: 100/1901 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

September 10: KJLN: 96/2000

September 12: KSGF: 97/1939 KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

September 10: KSGF: 74/1938

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ066-067-077- 078-088-089-093-094-101>103. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-104>106.