textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Less than 15% chance for flurries this afternoon across central into south central MO. Little to no accumulations expected at this time.

- Warming trend early week with temperatures becoming near or slightly above average. Highs peak either in the middle 40s, OR the middle 50s by Monday.

- 15 to 25% precipitation chances on Tuesday across south central MO. Forecast trends continue to suggest mostly light rain with greatest coverage south and east of our area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

This Morning-Tonight: A trough continues to dive south into the southeast CONUS, with a few weak shortwaves translating through the flow. One of these shortwaves is overspreading the Middle Mississippi Valley early this morning. While this shortwave will provide some lift over the region, there continues to be substantial dry air through the low-levels despite some moisture overriding into the mid- levels. As a result, we are seeing some radar echoes developing aloft, with little to reports of light snow/flurries at the surface. This area is focused across southeast KS into southwest and west central MO, or generally along and west of the Interstate 49 corridor. Given this lower confidence setup, we are planning to maintain <15% PoPs through the early morning hours. Little to no accumulations are expected at this time, limited to a dusting or less. Meanwhile, surface winds are beginning to turn out of the south early this morning. This will support a gradual warming trend later today and into early next week. Ahead of this, a light breeze will support minimum wind chills this morning around -5 to 0 degrees, with ambient low temperatures in the single digits to lower teens.

By later today, clouds will gradually clear with warm air advection building into the area. This will be characterized by gusty southwest winds this afternoon around 20 to 25 mph. Mid- level height rises nudging into the western periphery of the region will support highs reaching into upper 30s/lower 40s (west) to lower/middle 30s (east). The climb above freezing for most areas today should support some melting of the existing snowpack. One area in question would be areas east of Highway 5 into central and south central MO. Some guidance suggests clouds lingering a bit longer in addition to a secondary shortwave that may support some flurries once again. However, confidence remains low with this potential and PoPs are at <15%. Lows tonight fall into the lower to middle 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Monday: Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a decent warm up into Monday with persist southwest flow and increasing mid-level heights. However, there is still some uncertainty on just how much we are able to warm up areawide with an existing snowpack and increasing clouds through the day. NBM interquartile spreads remain around 10 degrees, ranging from upper 30s/lower 40s to upper 40s/lower 50s. One aspect that may shed some light on forecast highs in local climatology on 850 mb temperatures, with guidance depicting 4 to 6 C. This would support highs on the warmer side. Thus, we will continue to advertise a warmer day on Monday, with snowmelt expected to continue.

Tuesday-Wednesday: A dip in the jet stream with a transient trough into the central CONUS on Tuesday will support another brief cooldown and low precipitation chances. The cooldown returns highs into the 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, there remains some low PoPs (15-25%) along the frontal passage Tuesday morning and afternoon. The latest trends continues to suggest less moisture and a shift south and east of the area. As a result, the only mentionable PoPs are focused across south central MO on Tuesday. The predominate precipitation type is expected to remain rain, with low confidence in any wintry mix. Additionally, QPF amounts remain limited to a few hundredths. Given the latest trends, this system appears to be less and less of a storyline.

Thursday-Sunday: As we get beyond mid-week, ensemble guidance are coming into alignment on additional ridging building over the region. This would support near to above normal temperatures through late next week, with daily highs in the 40s to lower 50s. The warmest day of the week appears to be Friday, where confidence is increasing in areawide temperatures in the 50s to near 60. Furthermore, this pattern appears to remain rather dry with no PoPs through late week into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds move through this morning before scattering out towards the afternoon. South- southwest this morning at 5 to 10 knots, with afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds taper off this evening into the later part of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.