textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for isolated severe thunderstorms overnight/early this morning. Elevated hail and isolated damaging winds will be the primary severe risk. - Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the area this morning through Sunday morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall through tonight. This is due to recent heavy rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

- Active weather returns from mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Overnight/Early this Morning:

Shortwave energy coming off the lee side of Colorado Front Range supports a developing low across western KS. An associated warm front is lifting north with this developing low, and will meander through the area tonight. Warm air advection persists through the overnight in the vicinity of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and marginal deep layer shear. As the front lifts through, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop, though likely remain elevated in nature. Most of this isolated activity will remain sub-severe in nature, though a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm remains possible as captured in SPC's Marginal Risk (5% chance). Primary hazards with any stronger thunderstorms would be penny to ping pong sized hail, with the wind potential fairly limited given the elevated nature of the thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm is able to root more to surface, a damaging wind gust of 50 to 60 mph is plausible. Additionally, localized heavy downpours would accompany any of the thunderstorms. In general, the coverage overnight through early this morning is expected to remain minimal, with many locations remaining dry.

This Afternoon-Tonight:

Following on the heels of the previous forecast, there were two scenarios presented on the potential evolution of Saturday morning into the afternoon. Given the latest trends, we are leaning towards a scenario where a strong cold pool is not in play. This would be a direct result of no MCS translating through the area on Saturday morning. Thus, the arrival of shortwave energy into the area by late Saturday morning into the afternoon should support additional clusters of thunderstorms to develop in an environment favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC highlights the severe potential with an Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk draped across much of the area. The environment will be characterized by ample instability (MUCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg) in the vicinity of deep layer shear 30-40+ knots. There will be some initial capping to erode, though should be overcome with the arrival of shortwave energy. Forecast soundings depict this setup, with hodographs even hinting at the potential for splitting thunderstorms. From a storm mode standpoint, some supercell structures remain in play, though most will quickly grow upscale into clusters/bowing segments. This can be gleaned from latest CAMs depicting scattered clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon, with a few discrete cells. From a hazards standpoint, the environment supports large hail and damaging wind gusts with the afternoon round. Large hail looks to more favorable west of Highway 65, where the best mid level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) overlap the highest instability. Large hail parameter on the order of 8 to 12 suggests maximum hail size up to 2 inches or greater. Further east, the environment is a bit less favorable for large hail of this size, though quarters to golf balls remain plausible. As for damaging winds, this remains the greatest risk. Favorable parameters include Theta-E diffs of 30-35 K with strong 0-6km wind speeds overlapping ample downdraft CAPE. Strong cold pools will rapidly develop in this environment, supporting bowing segments and associated downdrafts. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph can be expected within the strongest thunderstorms through the afternoon. A tornado threat remains low, but not zero across the Eastern Ozarks if any thunderstorms are able to maintain discrete. In addition, localized heavy rainfall and flooding is on the table as early as Saturday afternoon, especially if thunderstorms train over the same areas. Further discussion of potential flooding is captured below in the Hydrology section of the AFD. To summarize, the most likely scenario is scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon, with lingering uncertainty on the extent of coverage ahead of the main event Saturday evening/night.

As we progress into the evening, additional shortwave energy ejects across the Middle Mississippi Valley as a cold front dives south through the region. A potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms develops along the front and will set the stage for damaging wind gusts in addition to the potential of a few brief tornadoes. This complex is expected to rapidly evolve as it dives south-southeast through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. CAMs continue to capture this scenario fairly well, though subtle differences exist with the timing. The latest trends would suggest the complex enters the area in the early evening and exits early Sunday morning. This complex will have the capability of producing widespread wind damage.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Quiet Sunday into Monday:

West-northwest flow aloft will settle into the region with weak surface high pressure building in from the northwest. While a leftover shower will be possible (<20% chance) over southern Missouri in the morning, dry weather is primarily expected with variable cloudiness. Pleasant highs in the 70s will occur with a less humid air mass also filtering into the region.

Cool conditions will then occur Sunday night as a surface ridge axis settles into the area. Lows over most areas will dip well down into the 50s. We will have to watch for some fog potential with winds become light on top of saturated soil.

Monday will remain dry with shorter term ensembles showing strong consensus in high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dew points will remain in the lower to middle 50s keeping humidity values in check.

Active Weather from Mid to Late Week:

Global ensembles show fairly good agreement that an upper level short wave trough will dig southeast through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A stronger wave is then forecast to dig through the same general region from Wednesday night into Thursday.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will initially increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north through the region. This front will then likely return south with that second wave and potentially stall somewhere across Missouri or Arkansas.

Machine-learning convective outlooks indicate some potential for severe storms starting as early as Tuesday and persisting through at least next Friday. At this point, the highest probabilities are for next Wednesday and Thursday. With recent heavy rainfall, we will also have to monitor the potential for additional flooding.

Temperatures will be highly modulated by coverage of storms and cloud cover in addition to the location of that front, especially from Thursday onward. Wednesday may be the warmest day of the week across much of the Ozarks with NBM spreads fairly clustered around highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Morning convection is slowly drifting to the NW away from the TAF sites. Additional scattered storms are then expected this afternoon, some of which may be severe, but confidence in coverage and location is low at this time. Additional thunderstorms develop to the north and move through late this evening into the overnight. Confidence is higher with these storms, which may also pose a severe risk.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts. For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for today and overnight into Sunday morning.

From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast for today through tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>070- 077>081-088>090-093>095-101>103.