textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will occur Saturday and Sunday. Slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across the region late Saturday into Sunday night.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Saturday night northwest of I-44. Slight (2 of 5) Severe Thunderstorm risk Sunday across the entire area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Synoptic analysis shows a shortwave trough to our southeast, with a ridge building over the western CONUS. There's an upper level low situated over the southern Plains, however this shouldn't influence any precipitation chances through the afternoon/early evening as a dry airmass and surface high pressure continue over the area. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly scattered high clouds over the area, with a few mid-level clouds closer to the MO/AR border coming from that low over TX. Observations so far this afternoon show temperatures in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s, with afternoon highs expected to climb a few more degrees in areas that haven't experienced peak heating (topping out in the low 80s everywhere).

As we head into tonight, the upper level ridge will continue to build east towards the area, with warm, moist air advecting from the southwest. Some instability will be accompanying this advection, with MUCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg, which could lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Forcing will be at a minimum, so coverage in any activity will be limited, with most locations staying dry.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

During the day on Saturday, the upper ridge to our west will begin to break down, with a shortwave trough just to our south. A warm front is progged to lift up into the area during the day, which could spark some showers/convection along the front. With shear remaining weak, any activity would be more pulse-like in nature, primarily confined to areas west of Highway 65 during the afternoon, and for areas south of Highway 60 in the early evening.

To our west, a surface low is also progged to develop on the lee side of the Rockies in Colorado, translating northeast towards northern Missouri during the evening and overnight hours on Saturday/Sunday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the High Plains during the afternoon and evening before growing into an MCS during the evening and overnight hours. The corfidi vectors continue to support a more east- southeasterly track into the area overnight, with it then following the west-to-east instability gradient through the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Sunday morning. High-Res CAMs show a line of thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of the complex, reaching our northwest CWA before sunrise on Sunday. There's still some uncertainty regarding the timing, as a slower movement could lead to thunderstorm chances beginning later into Sunday morning, so we'll need to continue monitoring how this complex develops on Saturday and how it progresses.

With instability increasing ahead of this complex (MUCAPE up to 1500- 2000+ J/kg) and bulk shear between 35-40kts (stronger shear in our northwest), large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Depending on the progression of the MCS and how the atmosphere can recover during the afternoon, additional redevelopment of storms will be possible as the cold front makes its way through the area Sunday afternoon and evening, and lingering into the overnight hours. SPC has highlighted the area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Sunday to highlight this potential.

In addition to the severe risk on Sunday, there will also be hydro concerns, as deterministic models show PWATS climbing between 1.6-2.0". For reference, the 90th percentile is 1.64", with a daily maximum PWAT of 1.89", placing our area above the 90th percentile, and approaching the daily maximum. With soils still saturated from recent heavy rainfall in areas expected to receive sufficient rainfall, scattered flash flooding will be possible. It should be noted that the magnitude of the flooding concerns will be determined by how progressive this system gets and if any training occurs. As it stands, here are the current 48-hr NBM probabilities of precipitation:

>0.5": 80-95% >1.0": 65-85% >2.0": 30-55% >3.0": 20-35%

with the higher end of those ranges generally north of I-44. WPC has highlighted the entirety of the area in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (Level 2 of 4), however additional tweaks may be needed once we get into the range of high-res guidance and we get a better idea of how this system will evolve.

Looking ahead into next week, a cooler airmass will filter into the area behind the cold front, bringing highs in the 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Much of next week looks to remain dry, with any precipitation chances staying south of the area. Once we get towards the end of the week however, an upper level disturbance looks to bring additional rain chances (30-45%) to the area. More details will be provided once we get closer to this timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entirety of the TAF period, with surface high pressure and a dry airmass in place. Surface winds should remain light, generally below 10kts. Towards the end of the period (generally between 12Z-18Z), there's a low chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms across the area, however decided to keep this potential out of the TAFs for now, as any impacts to the terminals remain low-confidence.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.