textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds return for Christmas Eve and Christmas, with sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph.

- Additional nocturnal fog and drizzle tonight into Christmas Day, and again Christmas night into Friday under a stagnant pattern. Confidence in details decreases with time.

- Record highs in the lower to middle 70s are expected through Saturday. Clouds may result in temperatures being a little cooler than forecasted at times.

- 30-50% rain chances across the area Sunday will precede a cooler and drier airmass that moves in early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

All facets of the synoptic pattern appear very much the same today as it did 24 hours ago. An amplified longwave ridge is settled over the entire CONUS with its axis stretching through the Plains. Then, at the surface, a stationary boundary still resides over central Missouri. This stationary boundary has been the focus of dense fog over northern Missouri and Kansas the past few days, with patchy, less dense fog over portions of our area. The main difference from previous days is the increase in high cloud coverage as a weak shortwave moves through the central Plains as noted by water vapor satellite imagery.

Record highs achieved in some places again today:

Despite the increase high clouds, temperatures were quick to break records in many places today. As of 130 PM, Springfield tied its record high of 74 F, Joplin reached 76 F, breaking its previous record of 75 F, and Rolla-Vichy reached 75 F, breaking its previous record of 72 F. Lows tonight may also break record warm lows as temperatures only decrease to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

10-20 mph sustained winds with 20-30 mph gusts continue:

Current surface observations depict sustained wind speeds at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph at times this afternoon. This comes as surface cyclogenesis occurs from the ejecting subtle shortwave previously mentioned. This has developed a 30-- 35 kt low-level jet and tightening surface pressure gradient across areas along and west of Highway 65. Expect these winds ti diminish to 8-12 mph after sunset when daytime mixing ceases.

Drizzle/fog tonight in the same locations as previous nights:

Another round of drizzle and fog is also possible again tonight in the same areas as previous nights as the pattern remains stagnant with unprecedented moisture hanging around the region. The first area of drizzle looks possible (10-20% chance) as temperatures drop to near saturation along the aforementioned stationary front across central Missouri. This would most likely occur after midnight and before 7 AM. Then, fog looks likely to form (HREF/REFS give a 40-60% chance of dense fog) behind the stationary front, which would clip our northwest counties. Radiation fog is also possible again across the eastern Ozarks, although this is less certain how dense it will get with increasing cloud cover over night. Nevertheless, mildly decrease visibilities from patchy fog are possible across the entire area again, with the densest fog confined north of the front and in the eastern Ozarks where temperatures will decrease most.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Record highs continue to be forecasted through Saturday:

"There's a 0% chance of a white Christmas" was a great line to underscore the forecast for not only tomorrow, but the rest of the forecast through Saturday. The ridge axis will pivot over southwest Missouri Christmas Day which will bring another "scorcher" to most of the area with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s which will be close, if not breaking, some more record highs. This pattern continues through Saturday with the ridge squatting overhead. Highs will continue to be around records in the upper 60s to middle 70s with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s, which is also around record warm lows.

30-50% rain chances Sunday, increasing chance of thunder:

The latest suite of models have come in with better agreement for the pattern change coming Sunday. The main difference in the grand ensemble mean is a shift to a later frontal/trough passage, which has increased rain chances to 30-50%, and extended them westward. In previous forecasts, there were different scenarios of trough shapes leading to different potential outcomes. With this suite, clusters have shifted to a 60% scenario (up from 25%) where the trough axis extends well southwest through the CONUS. This is opposed to a separate scenario where the trough stays well north of the area (now a 20% scenario).

The extended trough shape would allow for stronger moisture advection preceding the trough/frontal passage, which is giving decent probabilities for at least 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE (50-80% chance from LREF clusters). Therefore, if this scenario continues to be favored, thunderstorms would be possible Sunday morning. And with such fast flow in the mid- and upper-levels, shear would also not be an issue for potential severe thunderstorms. CIPS and GEFS AI guidance have highlighted our area for a 5% chance of severe thunderstorms. These of course would change with any shift in ensemble guidance, but given the current data, thunderstorms, some possibly severe from high shear; low CAPE, cannot be ruled out.

Cooler and drier air mass moves into the region early next week:

Following the cold front passage, cooler and drier weather is expected to move in. The NBM is still pretty confident in highs in the lower 30s Monday, which will be a rude awakening back to winter. Lows could bottom out in the middle teens to lower 20s Sunday and Monday night. Furthermore, the strong cold air advection should bring increased winds. Currently, winds are in the 15-20 mph range with gusts up to 20-30 mph Sunday. Additionally, the dry airmass will drop relative humidity values around 30-35% Monday. While the strongest winds and lowest relative humidity values look to be disjointed by a day, fire weather may still become a concern one or both of the days.

A warming trend then quickly follows the drop in temperature, though model spread increases as we go into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Visible satellite depicts a SCT 2-3 kft cumulus field inching up into BBG and SGF. This will simmer in the area until 22-23Z when the sun goes down. Afterwards, there is varying confidence in low-level cloud development tonight. HREF probabilities give a 40-50% chance of MVFR to IFR cigs after 06-08Z, but keep it FEW to SCT for the most part. If any cloud deck were to become more BKN or OVC, the best chance would be between 10-14Z at SGF and JLN. As a result, have included a TEMPO group for this timeframe.

Otherwise, winds will remain southwesterly at 12-18 kts with gusts up to 22-28 kts through 00Z, diminishing to 8-12 kts after 00Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 430 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24: KSGF: 74/1955 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/2021 KUNO: 74/1955

December 25: KSGF: 74/1889 KJLN: 72/2016 KVIH: 71/1971 KUNO: 74/2021

December 26: KSGF: 68/2008 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/1971 KUNO: 73/1971

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

December 24: KSGF: 54/1889 KJLN: 58/2021 KVIH: 52/1982 KUNO: 54/2023

December 25: KSGF: 58/1889 KJLN: 52/2016 KVIH: 46/2019 KUNO: 47/2021

December 26: KSGF: 54/1942 KJLN: 56/1954 KVIH: 55/1971 KUNO: 50/2019

December 27: KSGF: 71/2005 KJLN: 70/2008 KVIH: 69/2008 KUNO: 74/1971

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.