textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for thunderstorms (60-80%) Friday afternoon/evening. SPC Marginal risk (1/5) and Slight risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms. Slight risk is over Crawford and Cherokee counties.

- Slight risk area: Hail up to golf balls (1.75"), low-end tornado risk, 60 mph damaging winds. Marginal risk area: Hail up to half dollars (1.25"), 60 mph damaging winds.

- Another chance for rain and a few rumbles of thunder (20-50%) returns Saturday night into Sunday. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- Warming trend incoming with highs in the 70s and 80s through Saturday. Brief period of cooler temperatures then occurs Sunday and Monday before 70s and 80s return for next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Skies are mostly clear across the area this morning with lows sitting in the low 50s. Dewpoints are bit higher tonight thanks to the recent moisture return and they are sitting in the low 40s making it feel more humid. Winds are southerly and gusting near 12 mph. They will turn southwesterly through the day and gust near 25 mph later this afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front. We heat up to the mid 70s today with clouds filtering in from northern MO as the day goes on. Timing for our front remains very similar to the previous forecast discussion. This line of storms will move in from the northwest and push southeast through the afternoon/evening. Storms will start to initiate along the front in the early afternoon near the KC metro and over SE KS (3-5pm). Then, the front will push southeast and reach I-44 in the early evening (5-7pm) and far southern MO by late evening (7-9pm). The front is still forecast to push through rather quickly and may only bring rain to your area for a couple of hours.

Hazards and Severe Threat:

SPC has upgraded Crawford and Cherokee counties in KS to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather this afternoon. The rest of the area is still in a Marginal risk (1/5). The main threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a low-end conditional tornado threat for areas along and west of I-49. The best environment for severe weather to occur for our CWA is expected to be over SE KS and SW MO. Let's break down a few elements of the environment for this afternoon:

>Mid- level lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) >0-6 km bulk shear (40-50 kts) >MUCAPE (1500 J/kg) >0-1 km SRH (~150 m2/s2 along the front) >Large hail parameter (4-6)

The higher end values of these ranges will occur over SE KS and SW MO where the threat for supercells to form is higher. The shear values that the models are showing are decent and do suggest storm organization in the mode of supercells if all the elements match up just right. This also gives more context to the location of the low-end tornado threat. The low-level shear is on the lower end for what tornadoes usually need to form, so that's why the threat is low, but not zero. If supercells can form, the LHP of 4-6 presents the possibility of up to golf ball sized hail (1.75"). The storms that contain that large of hail will likely be isolated. The rest of the area could see up to half dollar sized hail in the strongest storms (1.25"). As the front pushes further southeast, models have the storms congealing into a squall line that will continue to diminish in severity with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Next round of thunderstorms is forecast to move through Saturday night into Sunday with the next frontal passage. SPC has outlooked far SW MO in a general thunder outlook. The bulk of the rain and severe weather is expected to stay just to our south. There may be a few rumbles of thunder, but no widespread severe weather is expected. Our rain chances and rainfall totals have decreased. Now, the chance for rain is 20-50% with only far SW MO seeing the higher rainfall totals near <0.50". Rain isn't expected to start until Saturday after sunset and continue through early Sunday morning. Sunday will be mostly dry and start out cloudy. Thankfully, clouds slowly diminish through the day as the cold front makes its way through the area. Daytime highs will drop almost 10 degrees from Saturday into Sunday from the mid 70s to the mid 60s.

High pressure starts to build over the Central Plains for the start of next week and keep us mostly dry through Thursday. Highs will be warm as we hit the mid 70s for Monday and 80s for Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR ceilings persist tonight and through tomorrow morning. Southwesterly winds begin to increase and gust near 25 knots by the afternoon. A cold front moves through Friday evening bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Brief MVFR ceilings may occur near and within the heaviest storms. Convection clears out near midnight and VFR ceilings return.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.