textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Weekend Winter Storm: Snowfall amounts and coverage trending higher, increasing confidence of impactful winter weather. Winter Storm Watch expanded in area and time to cover the entire area and persist through Sunday morning. Uncertainty remains and additional adjustments to messaging are likely.

- High confidence in well below normal temperatures. Single digit lows (above and below zero) with wind chills below zero will be likely each morning this weekend. Single digit highs possible Saturday.

- High temperatures in the low to mid 30s and lows in the single digits to teens Monday into Wednesday following weekend snowfall, which will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground to clear.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 136 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Quiet weather through the short term with no precipitation expected. - Lows tonight in the 20s. - Highs Thursday in the 40s. - Lows Thursday night mainly in the teens. Wind chills of 0-10F over all but the far south.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Attention remains on the winter storm and very cold weather impacting the area this weekend.

Snowfall: - Bottom line up front: Models continue to increase snowfall amounts and coverage, increasing confidence to the point of expanding the Winter Storm Watch to the entire area. Also pushed the end time of the Watch later to noon on Sunday. All areas should prepare for accumulating snowfall resulting in travel impacts combined with very cold conditions.

- Why has confidence increased? Models continue a northward shift and more models are coming on board with a stronger phasing signal and higher snowfall amounts across our area. The GFS and GEFS members remain southern outliers but are also showing a similar northward trend in snowfall. In fact, LREF cluster analysis shows little difference in pattern between 3/4 clusters and similar snowfall footprint with these 3 clusters. The outlier 4th cluster is ~70% GEFS membership. Thus, while the forecast was populated using NBM values, the lower GFS/GEFS snowfall amounts are easier to discount.

- Impacts and probabilistic amounts: - Temperatures: Going into the event highs on Friday will be in the mid teens north to the upper 20s south, with temps quickly falling into the single digits Friday night as the heavier snow moves in. This will result in most or all snowfall to stick to roads. Highs in the single digits to teens Saturday will prevent effective road treatment, which will continue into Sunday. - Snowfall amounts: Sticking with probabilistic at this time given continued uncertainty. Probabilities as follows (lowest probabilities over central MO, highest along MO/AR border): - >= 2": 80-90% - >= 4": 60-80% - >= 6": 40-70% - >= 8": 20-60% - >= 12": 20-40% along/south of Hwy 60 - Similarly, let's look at Winter Storm Severity Index probabilities (again, lowest over central MO): - Minor impacts: 90-100% - Moderate impacts: 70-100% - Major impacts: 30-60%

- Remaining uncertainties: Track and amounts are still in play and will need further adjustments. Precipitation type should be snow over most or all of the area, but the northward shift did bring a 15-20% chance for some sleet to mix in along the MO/AR border.

Cold: - Likely will need a Cold Weather Advisory for this event. - Friday night: Single digits lows, wind chills -5F to -15F. - Saturday: Highs single digits to mid teens. Daytime wind chills -10F to around zero. - Saturday night: Single digits lows with light winds. - Sunday: Highs in the teens to low 20s (colder if snowpack is thick). Daytime wind chills 0-10F. - Sunday night: Lows single digits below zero. Wind chills 0F to -15F. - Monday: Highs in the 20s. Single digit daytime wind chills. - Monday night: Lows in the single digits above and below zero. Wind chills 0F to -10F

Unusual combined snow/cold threat considerations: - Special consideration should be given to both cold and snow individually, but also when combined. If individuals become stranded during the event, they will be exposed to dangerously cold conditions.

Conditions early to middle of next week following the event: - Mainly for post-event cleanup purposes, look for highs in the low to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows in the single digits and teens. This will keep snowfall on the ground longer than normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 442 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions occurring across the area this evening through the day on Thursday. Surface high pressure will move over the region today and off to the east on Thursday. Winds will be light through the TAF period, being out of the west to start the TAF period and being light and variable overnight under the high then becoming easterly Thursday morning and afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.