textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday as daily heat index values climb to around 100 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows in the 70s. These hot conditions may linger through the Independence Day weekend, so those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours Thursday through Saturday. Coverage/probability is less than 30 percent and confined to locations along and east of Highway 65 on Thursday and locations along and east of I-49 on Friday and Saturday. There is the potential for a few strong storms with gusty winds as the main risk, but confidence is low at this time.

- Scattered storms (20-50%) will be possible across the area late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will return to near normal (upper 80s to lower 90s) early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Synoptic analysis shows our area placed on the western periphery of an upper level ridge in which the upper level high pressure currently sits over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Observations show temperatures so far today in the mid to upper 80s, with areas expected to climb a few more degrees into the low 90s. Observations have also shown heat indices ranging between the mid 90s to low 100s, leading to another hot day across the Missouri Ozarks. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of today through Friday.

Visible satellite imagery depicts diurnal cumulus clouds across the entire CWA, however these are expected to remain fair- weather clouds, as the dry airmass and current cap remains in place. Otherwise, observations show winds have occasionally gusted up to 20-25mph for areas west of Highway 65 this morning/early afternoon where mixing was occurring, which should continue for a few more hours before diminishing this evening.

Little relief from the heat can be expected once again overnight, with lows remaining in the 70s across the entire area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Not a huge synoptic change is expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend as the high pressure system remains to our east with the area remaining on the western periphery of the ridge. As a result, the heat will continue, with daily highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Currently the Heat Advisory goes until Friday, however with the similar conditions spilling into the Holiday weekend and many having outdoor plans, we'll continue to assess whether an extension into Saturday is needed. Future forecast packages will continue assessing, and will update as needed.

Moisture will begin to increase on Thursday, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 70s. The cap over the area will also begin to weaken, with peak heating occurring each afternoon. As a result, isolated pulse-like showers and thunderstorms will be possible (<30%) Thursday through Saturday afternoons as instability increases. This activity should remain sub- severe, however we can't rule out an isolated strong storm leading to small hail and gusty winds as it collapses. Not all locations will see this activity, with coverage remaining limited. These will be the typical summertime pulse storms that are more pesky and isolated in nature.

As we head into the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week, the ridge will continue moving east away from the area. Models show an upper level disturbance pushing through Sunday into early next week, however there's still a lot of discrepancies leading to lower confidence in coverage, timing, etc. Right now we're sticking with daily chances (20-50%) of scattered showers and storms, but will continue to make updates as things become clearer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period as a dry airmass continues over the area. South-southwest winds will continue gusting up to 20kts at KJLN for a couple more hours before diminishing by 01Z-02Z. Expect mostly clear skies overnight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.