textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog will be possible through 9-10 AM ahead of a cold frontal passage this morning. Transient periods of locally dense fog may occur, especially west of Highway 65 and south of I-44 and in cooler low-lying areas.

- Northwesterly winds will become gusty behind the front late this morning into this afternoon, gusting up to 30-35 mph.

- Cooler conditions will occur tomorrow into early next weekend, with lows in the 20s and 30s expected Friday and Saturday mornings. Daytime highs in the 50s are expected through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1245 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level shortwave trough continues to sag across the Northern Plains and into the lower Missouri Valley early this morning, with the associated surface cold front visibly advancing south towards eastern Kansas and western Missouri on low- and mid-level water vapor satellite imagery. Fog is also visible on satellite across much of the central US including most of the state of Missouri early this morning, with broad near-surface saturation under mostly clear skies allowing efficient radiational cooling to occur. The cold front is progged to arrive to the northwest reaches of our area around 6 AM this morning and quickly push across the area by early afternoon.

Fog/Drizzle Potential With Frontal Passage This Morning:

While satellite trends and surface obs just west of our area suggest that at minimum some areas of dense fog formation is likely to occur, model sounding analysis depicts a very dry profile above the lowest 1-2km. This will make it more difficult for any drizzle to form, even with the lift from the frontal passage across our area this morning. There may be brief periods where overlap of low-level moisture ahead of the front and lift along the front allows some brief pockets of drizzle to develop, but once the sun rises and temperatures begin rising (and the surface becomes less saturated as a result) the dry air will be too much to overcome, even along the front. As such, fog will be the primary phenomenon of note this morning ahead of the front approaching the area, with REFS guidance suggesting transient patches of locally dense fog will be possible through 9-10AM. Areas furthest west and south are the most likely places to see visibility noticeably reduced.

Gusty Winds Today:

As the surface low moves from the Omaha, NE area across Iowa and sags into central Illinois through the duration of the day today, the pressure gradient surrounding it will strengthen, bringing gusty northwesterly winds to the area. Gusts up to 30-35 mph will ramp up in the late morning across areas north of I-44 that see earlier frontal passage, and winds will start increasing in the early afternoon for locations further west that see frontal passage later in the morning. Wind gusts will decrease after sunset, but 20-25 mph gusts may linger across the eastern Ozarks into this evening.

Temperature/Humidity:

Dry air is not lagging far behind the front based on upstream satellite imagery, so the air will start drying out fairly quickly after fropa, with dew points dropping into the 40s from northwest to southeast this afternoon. With temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s today, RH values will likely drop to the 40-50% range, but slightly slower cooling and/or stronger mixing of dry air due to the gusty winds could result in RHs falling as low as 30% in portions of the area. Lows tonight drop into the low 40s to upper 30s behind the front.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Ridging aloft that is building across the western U.S. today will begin moving east into the central Plains on Thursday and Friday. A few additional shortwaves will eject off a parent low sitting and spinning over Quebec over the next few days, sending a reinforcing burst of cold air behind today's front. The ridging that builds into the area is expected to keep the bulk of the shortwave energy to our east, and the air should be dry enough to prevent any widespread precipitation even if lift does impinge on our area, so kept PoPs at 0% for Thursday in our eastern CWA.

Temperatures for the rest of the work week will be cooler than the first half of the week, with highs Thursday in the mid- to upper 50s near the Arkansas/Oklahoma state borders and low 50s northward. Lows Thursday night into Friday drop back below freezing, ranging from 27-32 across most of the area. Friday's daytime temperatures will range from mid-40s in central Missouri to low 50s furthest south, dropping into the low 30s in western Missouri/eastern Kansas and to the low to mid-20s in the eastern Ozarks Friday night.

Height rises accompanying the ridging aloft may raise temperatures into the mid- to upper 50s in portions of the area this weekend, especially in far western Missouri and eastern Kansas. However, as the next system looks to develop in the southern Plains on Sunday and Monday, these far west reaches have a far larger temperature spread for the weekend due to uncertainty in extent and intensity of southerly flow and WAA associated with this next potential system. Therefore, confidence that these warmer temperatures will occur remains low, and most outcomes suggest temperatures in the low 50s during the day and overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s each day this weekend.

This weekend system brings 15-45% PoPs to the area Sunday into Monday, with highest PoPs seemingly on Sunday evening in the far western extent of our CWA. This is also the area expected to have the warmest temperatures, remaining 37-45 degrees during the time period of highest PoPs, so the season's first snow flurries remain unlikely, with overall QPF values also low for areas that even see rainfall. Many areas, especially east of Highway 65, are most likely to remain completely dry Sunday and Monday with this system's passage. Stay tuned as the weekend approaches for more fine-tuned details.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A cold front continues to approach the area from the northwest to start the TAF period, with a narrow corridor of LIFR cig/vis due to fog just to the west of the KJLN site to start the period. Elsewhere, shallow VFR ground fog is occurring but not causing impacts to flight categories.

There is a low (<30%) chance that sudden VFR to IFR ceiling reductions may occur between 1130Z and 14Z at KJLN, but because of the low probability left it out of the TAF at this time and will amend based on observational/satellite trends if necessary.

With the cold frontal passage between 16-19Z today, winds will shift to northwesterly, with gusts up to 30 kts possible at times late this morning and this afternoon behind the front. Gusts will diminish this evening, with winds remaining northwesterly and mostly clear skies.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.