textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A few shower may linger across central Missouri this afternoon. Most locations will remain dry however.

- A few areas of dense fog may develop, mainly in valleys or low lying areas, with visibilities around a mile or less at times Saturday night.

- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return Sunday night through Monday. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate due to some model uncertainty with this next system.

- Increasing confidence in below average temperatures by mid next week into Thanksgiving, and continuing into next weekend. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1210 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A surface low was essentially directly over the Ozarks early this afternoon. This has allowed for some clearing in cloud cover over a good portion of the region. Where clear skies and sunshine was occurring allowed temperatures to climb into the lower 70s. Where clouds lingered temperatures were in the lower to middle 60s and isolated showers were occurring.

The area of low pressure will continue to make its way to the east through today and tonight with cloud cover returning on the back side of the low with colder air moving into the region. There may be a stray shower or two with this activity but coverage will be limited.

A few of the CAMS models as indicating the potential for fog to develop again overnight. Confidence is on the low side with the better potential for a low 200-400ft stratus deck occuring. If fog does develop, it would be in valleys or where stratus build down can occur. Overnight lows will be cooler in the 40s as cooler air filters into the region.

Winds will begin to pick up through the overnight into Saturday morning as well as high pressure enters the plains and a tightening surface pressure gradient develops across the Ozarks. Some locations could see winds Gus from 15 to 20 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Saturday into Monday: The start to the weekend will be seasonably cool with highs in the middle to upper 50s, thanks to ongoing cold air advection, behind the departing low with cool surface high pressure moving over the region by Saturday night. A short wave ridge will move across the plains and the Ozarks Sunday with surface high pressure, ample sunshine and light winds allowing for a rather nice day with this in the lower to middle 60s.

The ridge will be short lived however as the next storm system will be lifting out of the southwestern CONUS and into the plains Sunday evening. This system will bring the next round of rainfall to Ozarks which is becoming better handled by the synoptic and ensemble models. The better potential for rain at this time is expected to be along and south of I-44 based on the NBM and synoptic model outputs. This axis of better rain can still shift over the next few days. The system Sunday night into Monday is expected to bring more rain, as much as an inch n some areas. Though some areas received as much as 3 inches over the past 24-36 hours, this next systems rain is not expected to cause any more flooding than this past system did, despite the ground for most of the Ozarks getting a decent soaking.

Tuesday into Thanksgiving: After what will likely be the warmest day next week (Sunday) the storm system that will bring rain Monday will lift towards the Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. As this occurs, a ridge will be lifting over the west coast and Rockies producing northwesterly flow aloft. With this, A cold airmass will see essentially unrestricted flow into the center of the Country Tuesday into Thanksgiving. Highs for the middle of the week will likely loiter around the middle 50s to lower 60s. By Thanksgiving Day highs will be in the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark.

Next Friday into Next Weekend: Some of the models, including the EOF shift of tails continue to show the potential for temperatures even cooler than the current forecast. A few of the models show potential highs from Thanksgiving Day into the following weekend in the middle to upper 30s for highs. These 10th percentile readings remain outliers but they have been consistent and something that bear watching.

Either way, next week may seem more seasonable than the last week or so as several indicies are pointing to a significant cool down by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A boundary will be dropping south through the early part of the period. Along the boundary, very low stratus will move through all TAF sites, bringing cigs down to IFR, potentially LIFR. There's some questions in exact timing as evidenced by the TEMPO groups, but confidence in IFR cigs is high (>90% chance). Some stratus may build-down to surface fog/mist, but the best chance for this is northeast of the TAF sites.

The next question becomes how long do stratus hold on. Model guidance suggests until at least 17Z before clouds start breaking up, but it could last longer and have put TEMPO groups through 21Z to account for this.

Otherwise, 3-8 kt winds will shift out of the north-northwest early in the period before shifting back to westerly toward the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.