textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool temperatures through Friday with shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) Thursday night through Saturday morning. Localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding will be possible across central and south-central MO.

- Heat is expected to return to the region on Sunday into early next week. Increasing confidence for highs in the middle 90s to near 100, with heat index values around 100 to 110 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A decently strong low-level jet is forcing a weak complex of thunderstorms across southeast Kansas this morning. This has brought some light rain to the western portion of our area, but this is expected to be the extent of its impact beyond a very low chance for a stray lightning flash. This activity is weakening dramatically as the 700mb jet decreases in strength and instability drops off quickly to its east.

Light easterly winds and cloud cover are keeping temperatures low today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Our location on the transition between an upper level trough and ridge is creating a mild zonal pattern for the Ozarks for a few days, which will allow us to enjoy light winds, cooler temperatures, and some precipitation moving over the ridge with pockets of energy.

While most stay dry today, the low-level jet ramps up again tomorrow morning, overspreading an area of intense moisture brought into the area by a warm front to the south. PWAT values are landing in the 99th percentile to near the maximum value in the M-climate. This juicy atmosphere combined with the potential for training storms (as the CAMs are suggesting) will result in the potential for flash flooding. WPC has outlined most of the area in a Marginal risk for flash flooding tomorrow with a Slight risk over the northern third or so over the area, toward central Missouri. Northern and central Missouri will see precipitation for a longer period of time, beginning around 3am, while our area in southern Missouri will start to see scattered activity closer to sunrise. The centroid of the system (with better precipitation coverage) will start to round the bend of the LLJ mid-afternoon and make its way southeast through our area. While placement of the axis of heaviest precipitation is wavering a bit between model runs, the general area looks to be east of Hwy 65 as the rain moves south. Areas north of Hwy 54 will also see a local maximum in rainfall totals due to longer residence time of the precipitation, hence the WPC Slight risk in that area. Around 1-3 inches can be expected in these areas with lighter accumulations elsewhere.

While 1 hour flash flood guidance is generally above 2.50 inches in most areas, there are small pockets east of Hwy 65 that are lower, especially due to recent heavy rains. These areas will be monitored closely for flash flooding dangers throughout the day Friday as well as overnight into Saturday morning.

Due to the relative lack of precipitation and cloud cover, the western half of the area will be warmer over the next couple of days with highs up to 10 degrees warmer than areas in the east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As the upper ridge begins to move our way in earnest and SSWly flow ramps up, we will once again see a strong warming trend to near record summer heat. Highs Sunday through at least Tuesday reach 100 across nearly the entire area with Heat Index values up to 110. The NWS HeatRisk tool shows the entire forecast area in Major to Extreme for early next week, with some areas in the west only cooling to around 80 overnight.

Once precipitation Friday night comes to end end throughout Saturday morning, additional precipitation is not expected for the rest of the forecast period. Long term outlooks indicate best chances for near-normal temperatures and precipitation to start August, which would put highs around 90 and up to an inch of rain in a seven day period. While the ridge looks to stick around for a while, it appears we may be lucky to remain close enough to the periphery to benefit from some stray energy for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Remnant precipitation moving out of eastern Kansas may result in quick isolated showers at JLN. Otherwise, the only impact from this activity will be in the form of mid- to upper-level cloud cover. Light winds will begin easterly and slowly turn clockwise to become southerly by the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.