textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain may break for much of the area a bit this afternoon with more scattered showers developing ahead of a cold front in the western CWA.

- Low clouds and drizzle will be possible tonight into Sunday morning.

- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) next week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show and upper level trough over the central and southern plains early this afternoon. A low level jet continues to transport moisture northward into the area. A warm front was moving into the western portion of the CWA ahead of the main low pressure system still out in the plains. We've seen some clearing of rainfall from southwest to northeast with the remaining solid bands of rain over central Missouri and a second extending from east TX into south central MO. There were also newly developing showers behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front in eastern KS. The cloud cover and rainfall has kept temperatures generally in the 40s so far, but some 50s have started moving into the western CWA behind the warm front.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: The surface low and upper trough will continue to track east across OK/AR. A narrow band of instability ahead of the cold front may develop a few thunderstorms within the area of scattered showers this afternoon, but chance of this will lessen as we lose daytime heating after sunset. The main solid bands of rain should move out of the area with more scattered activity from mid to late afternoon into the evening. Models are showing a potential for drizzle to develop tonight into Sunday morning as we lose cloud ice and maintain low level moisture as the upper wave moves through.

Sunday: Gusty northerly winds will move into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning in the wake of the surface low tracking south of us to the east. Clouds should start to clear out late Sunday morning into the afternoon which should allow temperatures to climb into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the low/mid 60s in the western CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Back to well above normal temperatures: Behind the trough that will push east into the southeast U.S. on Sunday, we'll start to see rising upper heights with a ridge moving into the area from the west. By Monday, we should see low level warm advection develop over the area and temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 60s for highs with 70s for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame and may approach or exceed records(see climate section).

Late week uncertainty: There are some timing and location differences with a low pressure system and frontal boundary late in the week (Thu-Fri) timeframe but we do have low pops(10-20%) at this time with the system. NBM highs jump back down into the low 50s to low 60s on Friday however there is still a big 10 degree range in the 25th-75th percentiles heading into Friday where track and timing uncertainty shows up.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light rain and drizzle is moving through the area tonight and is expected to continue for the next few hours. IFR and LIFR conditions are currently widespread across the Ozarks. Though precipitation will end by 12Z, low clouds and lowered visibilities will linger until just before 18Z, when conditions gradually lift to MVFR and then VFR through the end of the period. North winds generally 15G25 will last through the day before becoming light and variable by 0Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 73/1911 KJLN: 74/2011 KVIH: 73/2017

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Precipitation:

February 14: KSGF: 2.10/1908 KJLN: 1.54/1992 KVIH: 1.50/1949 KUNO: 1.46/1949

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.