textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Sunday due to several consecutive days of Heat Index values 105 degrees or greater for much of the area. Widespread heat impacts are expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger. Though scattered precipitation chances have increased Saturday evening, they remain below 20%, and most will stay completely dry.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The upper ridge continues to dominate over the middle of the country, bookended by upper lows over the northwest and northeast. This is resulting in continued heat with mostly sunny skies besides some fair weather Cu that has developed over the southeast half of the state where stable surface air has mixed out. There are actually a few small showers just to the southeast of our CWA in the Missouri bootheel/northeast Arkansas area where some of those convective bubbles were able to precipitate. Don't anticipate this activity effecting our area much, though we are carrying a very small area of PoPs up to 10% in extreme southeast Oregon county on the off chance that one of these develops farther west.

Otherwise, the story for today has not changes much. Though, precisely for that reason, we have upgraded the Heat Advisory to an Extreme Heat Warning for the entire area. Several official reporting sites measured Heat Index values 105+ in the heat of the afternoon yesterday and are on track to do the same today and through the weekend. The potential for this heat to persist for 4 days meets Warning criteria. While not everyone will experience a heat index greater than 105 every day through Sunday, wide swaths particularly north of the Plateau and in our western and southern counties are likely to see these conditions. Regardless of meeting the rigid criteria exactly, we are dealing with an extended period of much- above normal, near-record heat that has had substantial sensible impacts on the public and partners. The NWS HeatRisk tool is maxed out in the Extreme category through Sunday, especially north of the Plateau and along the Missouri-Kansas border. The WBGT is High or Extreme over the whole CWA through Saturday, indicating the highest levels of heat impact. Upgrading the headlines and using strong wording is necessary to communicate the magnitude of the threat posed by this extended period of dangerous heat.

Official reporting stations are sparse, but Heat Index values up to 103 have already been achieved by 2 PM, and a few more hours of warming is still expected. Heat tomorrow is expected to be much the same. The big change with this forecast is the potential for some isolated to scattered shower and storm activity Saturday night. The backdoor cold front expected to move through may have more potential to produce precipitation than previously expected. CAMs have begun to indicate low coverage precipitation in south-central Missouri tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front, though substantial surface capping must be overcome (or forcing aloft must be introduced) for this to be realized. PoPs then follow the front as it moves through to the southwest, but do not exceed 20% due to the low confidence and low coverage. That said, this is the highest chance for precipitation we have seen in some time, so it would be understandable for this to incite some excitement. I would caution, though, that most will likely remain completely dry (and very hot) through the weekend.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The front will still be making its way through Sunday, and if it manages to kick off any rain, that may be lingering. The ridge wastes no time making up for its minor retrograding and builds east again Sunday. Heat Index values 100-110 are expected once again. Though the front will be quite weak, it does sweep away some of the higher dewpoint temperatures to the west, and the western portion of the area may be several degrees cooler for Monday.

By Tuesday, the low pressure to the northwest begins to break down the ridge and sends a more classic cold front our way. The day 6-7 model output is showing the potential for up to 35% PoPs into central Missouri Wednesday night with 20% odds widespread across our CWA by Thursday morning. This system will be watched closely in the coming days as it is our best hope for any respite from the heat, however short lived.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period. For Saturday afternoon, a SCT-BKN CU field is expected to develop with bases around 5-7 kft. There are also expected to be showers and thunderstorms, but with only a 20% coverage resulting in a roughly 20% probability for sites to be impacted.

CLIMATE

Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 102/1899

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998 KUNO: 101/1954

September 6: KSGF: 100/1960 KJLN: 101/1954 KUNO: 101/1990

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.