textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Watch along a corridor roughly from the Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat indices near/around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this area. Heat indicies around 100 are expected elsewhere early next week. - Rain chances return Wednesday through Friday (30-50%), especially north of Interstate 44.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A longwave trough axis was centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with an attendant quasi-stationary front draped across northern Missouri. A secondary front and cloud shield were situated across southeast Missouri--remnants of yesterday's convection. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level ridge across the western CONUS was expanding eastward, resulting in height rises and mostly clear skies across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

Warm and Dry Today:

Height rises and warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon, with slightly cooler temperatures elsewhere. Thermo profiles suggest an environment ripe for mixing; that said, light winds will keep any drying effect small. As such, dew points are about 1-3 degrees lower than the NBM was suggesting yesterday atop the plateau, which has knocked down maximum expected heat indices a touch for these locations. Otherwise, no precipitation will occur today.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Hot Sunday through Wednesday:

Temperatures will increase further on Sunday and into the work week as the aforementioned ridge expands east. In fact, temperatures may approach the 100 degree mark across extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas each day. There is greater uncertainty in the dew point forecast, however. Stronger winds will support better mixing next week compared to today, which may act to lower dew points and, ultimately, maximum afternoon heat indices by a few degrees, particularly atop the plateau. Therefore, the hottest conditions will occur in lower elevations where mixing is less of a factor. Confidence is medium to high (40-80% chance) that locations in southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas will reach at least a 100 deg heat index tomorrow through Wednesday, resulting in a prolonged heat risk. Confidence in reaching 105 degrees each day is lower, however, with the greatest chance north of the plateau where an Extreme Heat Watch is currently in effect. All this to say that we have held off on any additional headline issuance with this package until forecast confidence increases.

Regardless of exact headlines, it will be hot Sunday through Wednesday, and those with outdoor plans should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available. Furthermore, the NWS HeatRisk product depicts increasingly widespread values in the Major category throughout the week. This category means that heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, and impacts are likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries, and infrastructure.

Rain Chances Mid to Late Week:

Global ensembles depict the upper-level height pattern flattening into more of a zonal flow by Wednesday or even digging into a trough across the Midwest and eastern CONUS. The differences and details will in fact matter when it comes to the sensible weather, but at the very least, this shift will open the door to rain chances for the latter half of the week. Indeed, precipitation chances increase to 30-50% each day beginning late Wednesday. The highest chances are across central Missouri where synoptic-scale ascent will be the greatest. At the same time, confidence in the temperature forecast decreases. NBM interquartile temperature spreads increase from 3 degrees on Wednesday to 10 degrees on Friday, which exemplifies this increasing uncertainty nicely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. Expect primarily southerly winds generally below 10kts through tonight before increasing up to 12kts at KSGF and KJLN Sunday afternoon. Some occasional gusts up to 17kts will be possible towards the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094- 101.