textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light to moderate rain returns late tonight through Monday.

- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

- Additional rain chances (60-70%) next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus over the region continues to steadily clear from south to north this afternoon. These clouds will hold on the longest across central Missouri, so temperatures have been adjusted downward a few degrees today for these locations. Zooming out, water vapor imagery nicely shows an upper-level cyclone spinning over the four corners region in the desert southwest. This system will gradually translate east and bring our next rain chances to the forecast area after midnight tonight.

Before this system arrives, fog and low stratus may again be able to form overnight. The best chances will be across portions of the eastern Ozarks where these locations remain precipitation- free longer. REFS and HREF probabilities for visibilities less than 1 mile are highest (60+%) along and east of the Highway 63 corridor.

Most global models show the closed upper-level low transitioning to an open wave as it moves into the eastern Plains. Synoptic lift arrives across southeast Kansas and far western Missouri around midnight along with a round of showers focused along the baroclinic boundary. Extended reaches of the CAMs depict this line weakening through Missouri as it outruns the better moisture and forcing. However, additional showers will develop throughout the afternoon and evening as the surface low approaches the area. A lack of instability (RAP suggesting a meager 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE) will tend to limit convective development and rain rates. So, while lightning cannot totally be ruled out, a thunderstorm will likely be the exception rather than the rule. Forecast rain totals continue to trend downward as well, generally between 0.10 and 0.50 inches. HREF and REFS LPMM output suggest localized amounts up to 1 to 1.5 inches may be possible across western and central Missouri where showers may train or move over the same areas repeatedly, but most areas will see less than these amounts. Rain chances wind down from west to east Monday evening and night as this system pushes east of the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tuesday: Temperatures look to stay fairly seasonable through Tuesday before a cold front associated with an upper-level shortwave trough over the northern CONUS digs into the Midwest. A few global models depict very light QPF along this front, but with meager lift and moisture, confidence in any rain actually being realized is low. Thus, we have stuck with NBM precipitation chances of 10-20%.

Wednesday through Friday: Below-average temperatures settle in behind the aforementioned cold front by Wednesday. Highs each day range from the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s. A dry airmass and northwest flow aloft will keep the region precipitation-free through this period.

Next Weekend: Ensemble cluster solutions diverge significantly by the weekend, though they generally show upper-level troughing developing to the west, which would open up the Gulf and increase moisture advection across the Ozarks. As/if/how the trough shifts east, rain chances may return to the area, but details on specific timing, amounts, and locations are unclear at this point. Likewise, NBM temperature spreads increase significantly by the weekend, with a whopping 20 degree interquartile spread (from 39 to 59 deg) on Sunday owing to disagreements in trough placement and speed. Current deterministic NBM high temperatures are pretty close to the median of 50 degrees, but in reality, either end of the spectrum is possible. Model trends will have to be monitored in the coming days to gain confidence in the temperature forecast this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The widespread low stratus that has been blanketing the entire region will clear from south to north across southern Missouri at the start of the TAF period, bringing a period of VFR conditions to the terminals through the afternoon and evening. Additional fog may develop again tonight, but the best signal looks to be across the eastern Ozarks, so no mention of fog was included in the 18Z TAFs.

An upper-level disturbance will approach from the west overnight into Monday morning, bringing chances for light to moderate rain and the return of MVFR to IFR ceilings. The chance of lightning with this activity is low (10-20%) and was omitted from the TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.