textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday. Elevated to locally significant fire weather concerns today. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Saturday.

- Widespread precipitation chances (70-85%) Sunday into Monday morning as a cold front moves into the area, including potential for a wintry mix mainly north of Hwy 54.

- Active pattern continues after this weekend into the middle of March. There is a threat for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week (March 4-11).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

An area of surface low pressure is located across the northern Plains early this morning. Light winds and clear skies are occurring across the region early this morning south of the low. Some patchy light fog will be possible across far south central Missouri early this morning, but the better potential for any fog development will be east and southeast of the area.

The surface low will move southeast into the Great Lakes region today. The pressure gradient will tighten some from north to south across the area as the low moves to the east. Southwesterly winds will develop this afternoon, generally around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to around 25 mph at times, with the strongest winds expected across central Missouri closer to the low. A warm air mass will be in place as highs warm into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Moisture advection will be slow to return to the area today, and as a result afternoon humidity values will drop to around 20 to 25 percent this afternoon. It is possible portions of far southern Missouri could see RH values drop below 20 percent to as low as 15 percent this afternoon. Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the area this afternoon as the southwesterly winds combine with the warm and dry air mass.

Warm air advection will occur across the area tonight into Saturday, and will provide some lift. A few isolated showers could be possible but a dry air mass is will be in place which will limit the coverage and most locations, (if not all) should remain dry.

Highs will be slightly warmer on Saturday as highs warm into the middle to upper 70s. Moisture will only slowly return on Saturday leading to dry conditions again as afternoon humidity values drop to 25 to 35 percent. Portions of far southern Missouri could see RH values drop to as low as 20 percent on Saturday. Winds will gusts up to around 20 mph at times and will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions developing again Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

An upper level trough will move east across the northern Plains on Saturday and into the Great Lakes region by Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move over Minnesota by Sunday morning. A cold front will move south through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. An upper level short wave trough will move east across the central Plains on Sunday and across the area Sunday night into Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to develop along and north of the front as early as Saturday night, and especially on Sunday continuing at times into Monday morning. There will be some weak MUCAPE so some isolate rumbles of thunder will be possible as early as late Saturday night into Sunday along the front, but no severe weather is expected. Most of the area will see rain as the precipitation type with this system as the colder air remains north of the area. However temperatures around freezing could drop near or into the area Sunday night into Monday morning, and could result in the potential for a wintry mix mainly north of Highway 54, if not north of the area all together. The models are trending further north with the colder air, with rain having the highest percentage for the precipitation type among the models for the area. The Models have a very low, < 15% chance for a wintry mix mainly north of Highway 54 Sunday night into Monday morning, if the cold air can make it into the area.

Highs will only warm into the middle 40s to lower 50s on Sunday and Monday with the preciptiation and front south of the area. The front will lift back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday with additional rain chances occurring with the front as it lifts north. An upper level trough will move onto the west coast early next week and will move east across the region during the middle to end of next week. The ensemble model members continue to differ on the exact track and timing of the system. The models also differ on the front that will move north through the area early next week. Some models stall the front over or near the area through the middle of the week. With southwest flow aloft moisture would advect into the region as upper level energy moves across the front and could result in periods of rain through the middle of the week and could result in the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. Other model members take the front north of the area and brings a cold front across the area during the middle to end of next week. If this solution occurs there could be the potential for some strong to severe weather if enough moisture return can occur further enough north. Overall the models are showing the potential for a more activity weather pattern occurring across the region next week, with several chances (50-80%) for rain at times. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the exact details which will be dependent on the timing and track of the system and placement of the front. Above normal temperatures will also be possible next week, but just how warm will depend on the rainfall potential each day and how much sun can occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Light southeast to southerly winds will occur early this morning. Winds will become more southwesterly by mid morning and will be gusty at times out of the west to southwest this afternoon. Winds will then weaken by sunset this evening and be light overnight. Mid level clouds will start to increase across the area this evening into tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.