textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Near average temperatures the next few days. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly some thunder this weekend. Highest rain chances west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts generally less than 0.50 inches, with some areas staying dry. - A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-80% chance) looks to occur next week, with the greatest chance of occurrence during the middle to end of the week. There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system, but confidence is still limited at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An upper level disturbance is currently moving across the region early this morning. Some showers and a few thunderstorms have developed ahead of the disturbance across eastern Kansas early this morning. The upper level disturbance will continue to lift northeast this morning keeping the better lift and instability west and north of the area the rest of the overnight hours into this morning. Some light rain showers are pushing into extreme southeastern Kansas and will continue to weaken as they move further east, mainly remaining along and west of I-49 this morning. There will be some weak MUCAPE west of I-49 which could result in a few rumbles of thunder this morning but the better thunder potential will be northwest of the area. This morning activity should start to dissipate by the mid morning hours.

Another upper level disturbance will move southeast across the central Plains this afternoon/evening and across the area tonight into Sunday morning. Uncapped MUCAPE will develop and move east into the western portions of the area later this afternoon then east to near Highway 63 this evening into Sunday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop and occur at times as the disturbance slowly moves through the area late this afternoon into Sunday morning. The better chances for this activity will be along and west of Highway 65. This activity will weaken as it moves east where instability will be weaker. Not all locations will be affected by this scattered activity especially further to the east along and east of Highway 63. No severe weather is expected. Localized rainfall amounts around one half inch will be possible across portions of the area west of Highway 65 but most locations will remain less than this. Rainfall amounts will decrease to the east across the area.

Highs will range from the middle 70s across central Missouri to the low/middle 80s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri both today and again on Sunday. Lows tonight into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning will range from the middle 50s across south central Missouri to the middle 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An upper level trough will dig south across the west coast Sunday night into Monday, resulting in a southwest upper level flow pattern pattern setting up over the region ahead of the trough early next week. Highs will continue to warm into the lower to middle 80s across much of the area on Monday and Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions will occur across the area on Monday with the trough remaining well to the west across the west coast on Monday.

The upper level trough is then expected to move east across the region mid to late week. The ensemble model members suggest that this system will be stronger with better moisture return bringing better widespread chances to the area, currently 50-80%. There continues to be differences between the model members on the structural and the exact track and timing of the system and continue to trend slightly slower. The ensemble model members also continue to show the potential for the remnants of Hurricane Polo off the west coast of Mexico to track to the northeast into the Baja. There remains the potential for the remnants getting pulled the into the upper level trough across the southwestern U.S. that will move through the region during the middle to end of the week. If the remnants get pulled into the trough this would increase the amount of moisture available with the system and lead to several rounds of rainfall and could lead to the the potential for some heavy rainfall developing across portions of the region but there is still uncertainty on the exact track and where any bands would set up at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Rain showers with potentially isolated thunder are moving east through eastern Kansas at the start of the TAF period. While this activity is expected to diminish as it traverses Missouri, light rain and bases as low as 9kft may impact airfields this afternoon. More widespread rain is expected after midnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though short periods of MVFR may be seen with rain showers.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.