textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm across southeast KS into west- central MO tonight. Most of the area remains dry.

- Slight Risk (2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and evening. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, with a secondary risk of tornadoes.

- Additional rain chances on Saturday and Sunday may pose a risk for flash flooding due to recent heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Upper-level ridging remains in place early this morning with a shortwave trough axis shifting through the High Plains. Convection that initiated across the region yesterday evening has and will continue to dwindle as it pushes east into a less favorable environment.

Warm and Muggy through Thursday:

Dew points will remain high today through Thursday, contributing to continued humid and sticky conditions. The aforementioned upper-level trough across the High Plains will shift east today, however, which will act to flatten the ridge somewhat and keep temperatures a bit cooler than they were yesterday. Afternoon heat indices are forecast to be in the 95 to 102 degree range--shy of Heat Advisory criteria--so no headlines are planned for today. Similar temperatures for Thursday but an even greater influx of moisture may push heat indices a few degrees higher, but models continue to be largely unsupportive of values reaching 105 degrees or greater (less than 20% probability). Nevertheless, vulnerable populations and those sensitive to heat illnesses may still be susceptible.

Severe Risks Tonight and Thursday:

A cold front will slowly slog through the Plains today as the upper- level wave pivots northeast through the Upper Midwest. Storms are expected to initiate along this front amidst a corridor of greater shear, instability, and lift across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The environment will be conducive for supercells and possibly storm clusters; however, confidence in sustained convection or MCS longevity are not particularly high as the storms outrun the better shear. To that end, most CAMs depict most if not all convection diminishing as it approaches the forecast area. Should these storms overperform or become rooted along an established cold pool and are able to survive into the CWA, wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarters would be the possible hazards. Trends will continue to be monitored throughout the day to build higher confidence in this potential.

Severe weather is more likely late Thursday afternoon and evening. Another compact shortwave will pivot through the Upper Midwest, which will force the aforementioned cold front east/southeastward into the Missouri Ozarks by late afternoon. A juiced thermodynamic profile featuring steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and ample MUCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg) within a zone of enhanced 850 mb and mid-level flow will support robust updrafts and convection capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts along the front. A large hail parameter of 5-6 from the RAP would support hail up to the size of golf balls, primarily along and north of the I-44 corridor. A tornado threat is less clear with this activity given marginal low- level shear with southwesterly synoptic- scale winds and prominent capping ahead of the boundary, but a few tornadoes may still be possible if diurnal heating during the afternoon is enough to sufficiently erode the cap. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Slight Risk area generally along and north of the I-44 corridor, with a Marginal Risk to the south. Heavy downpours with high rain rates will accompany these storms, but the progressive nature of the front limits the risk of widespread flooding. There are still some slight timing disagreements among the guidance, but the rough consensus is that the severe risk increases first across western Missouri and eastern Kansas late afternoon and transitions through southwest Missouri during the evening hours before eventually clearing the CWA Thursday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Cooler temperatures move in behind a cold front on Friday as the synoptic pattern becomes more zonal through the weekend. Ensemble clusters suggest rain chances return across the region Saturday and Sunday as the front lifts back north, but notable differences in the position of the axis of heaviest rainfall remain. At this point, the highest rain chances (70-90%) are late Saturday into early Sunday. A flooding threat may become apparent wherever the front ultimately settles due to recent heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, saturated soils, and the potential for training thunderstorms.

Precipitation chances become more scarce by Monday as the front slinks back to the south into Arkansas. Even cooler temperatures are progged to filter in behind it; in fact, NBM percentile data support high temperatures around 10 degrees below climatological averages by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period as scattered mid to high-level clouds move overhead. South- southwesterly winds will increase throughout the morning into the afternoon, occasionally gusting between 20 to 30 kt.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.