textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming back into the 70s this week and into the weekend.

- Unsettled conditions with daily rain chances Thursday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

It's a lovely, mild night here in southwest Missouri early this Tuesday morning. Skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s before sunrise. A surface high in the northern Plains and a surface low in the lee of the Colorado Rockies are creating a weak boundary across our area where the opposite flows converge, but this is having little sensible impact. This boundary is visible in radar reflectivity and velocity products, slowly moving south.

As the high to the north continues shifting east, our winds will shift from light and variable to increasing out of the southeast, reaching up to 15 mph by midday. Some frontogenesis and snow activity in northern Missouri into Iowa will result in an increase in cloud cover across roughly the northern half of the area today, limiting highs there to the mid-60s compared to the low 70s expected in the far southwestern portions of the CWA where cloud cover will be most limited.

Upper level geostrophic flow pivots and shifts overnight tonight as the surface low pushes across South Dakota. Southeast surface flow continues for us, and clouds continue to increase. Lows remain in the 40s to around 50 in the west.

By Wednesday, the upper level low has pushes southeast across the Canadian border, and the surface low continues east. The surface pressure gradient tightens over Missouri, and it will get breezier, especially west of Hwy 65. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts exceeding 30 mph will be possible here. Elsewhere, winds top out at around 20 mph. Clouds actually decrease as stray pieces of shortwave energy move out, and the WAA combined with sunny conditions will allow for highs to reach the low to mid 70s area-wide.

Wednesday night may be the last dry one for a while. Skies will be mostly clear, southerly winds will be light, and lows will be in the low 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

By Thursday morning, a front begins to drop through Missouri from the northwest. It is primarily tied to the deep low now moving north of the Great Lakes, but is also being supported by shortwave energy and another lee cyclone to the west. As our flow slowly shifts to the southwest as it approaches, moisture is streamed into the area ahead of the front. The boundary is not very progressive, and at first precipitation chances are only seen in west-central Missouri, reaching only 15-30% for our northwestern fringes. Most people will likely only experience increasing cloud cover on Thursday and have to wait a little longer to see actual precipitation.

Heading into Friday, that lee cyclone deepens over the Texas panhandle and begins joining forces with the low that is now way up over eastern Canada. This is why the front stalls out over the Plains and Midwest for so long: the flow around each of the lows opposes the other, resulting in net-zero movement for the boundary. It takes a while for the precipitation chances to even nudge into the SGF CWA, and when they do, they just sit there. PoPs Friday reach nearly 80% in the far northwest, but barely break 30% down in south central Missouri.

In the western periphery of the departed high pressure, southerly flow and moisture continue streaming in, and shortwave energy ejecting out of the southwest continues to support precipitation through the weekend. There may be a short break between the precipitation associated with the previous front and the incoming shortwave, but they do connect and will move through in quick succession. This continues through the weekend, and it looks like another low ejects out of the southwest early next week, keeping the unsettled pattern going.

The WPC highlights portions of our CWA Thursday and Friday for a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and the SPC indicates an equivalent Slight risk for severe weather to our west and southwest Saturday and Sunday that may expand into our area with future updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Winds vary from east to south, up to 15G20 kts. Some high clouds filtering in.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.