textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today through Monday. - Hot and humid conditions on Monday and especially Tuesday. A Heat Advisory has been issued areawide for afternoon heat index values between 100 to 108 degrees.

- Seasonable temperatures ahead mid to late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Broad ridging persists aloft today with surface high pressure along the Gulf coast producing continued warm, humid conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. A cold front was draped across northern Missouri with scattered convection ahead of it. To its south, a weak convergent boundary has been the focus for small, isolated showers across southern Missouri and southeast Kansas.

Scattered Showers and Storms Today through Monday:

Hi-res guidance shows convection percolating today amidst uncapped MLCAPE values reaching between 2000-2500 J/kg and a moist vertical profile. Long, skinny CAPE profiles will support brief heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms as the primary hazards. Chances are highest (30-50%) across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Similar conditions will occur on Monday with diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection across south-central Missouri.

A cold front will then push through southern Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday. While models currently are not very eager to initiate convection along this boundary, it is not unreasonable to think a few showers could develop along it given the abundant moisture. This potential will be monitored over the next 48 hours.

Heat Builds Early Next Week:

Temperatures will increase Monday into Tuesday as the upper- level ridge axis shifts east slightly. This increase in temperatures along with the persistent humid airmass will produce heat index values in the 100 to 108 degree range. Furthermore, the NWS HeatRisk product depicts widespread Moderate to Major values, suggesting those without effective cooling and hydration measures are likely to face heat-related impacts. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued areawide from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday. Forecast point soundings do suggest some atmospheric mixing will occur on Monday which may result in slightly lower dew points (and therefore heat index values) than guidance currently suggests, but the vertical profile is quite moist aloft, so any lowering will likely be minor. Locations within the lower terrain off the plateau are more likely to experience the least mixing and highest heat index values. For Tuesday, temperatures will increase further, and the approaching cold front will act to reduce mixing. Therefore, confidence in heat index values reaching advisory criteria (105+) is higher on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

More seasonable temperatures and a drier airmass will move in behind the cold front on Wednesday, which will act to keep rain chances minimal through much of Thursday. Global models suggest a flattening of the ridge with the passage of a transient shortwave trough late Thursday which may open the door to more precipitation chances into Friday morning. Current NBM PoPs sit between 25 to 40%.

Ensemble cluster solutions diverge more significantly Friday into the weekend as evidenced by large temperature spreads. A more eastward ridge axis would tend to mean above-average temperatures and drier conditions, while a more westward solution would be slightly cooler with continued precipitation chances on the eastern periphery of the ridge.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A band of showers across southern Missouri will continue to diminish at the start of the TAF period. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms will re-develop in the afternoon. Coverage remains in question, however, so any mention was relegated to a PROB30 group.

Winds will remain light (generally less than 10 kt) throughout the TAF period, prevailing out of the south to southwest.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.