textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and well above normal temperatures into early next week. Highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Dry agricultural conditions paired with daily humidity values dropping into the 20-35% range may increase the chance for fire starts, but winds generally below 15 mph should limit fire spread danger. Higher gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible early to middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The large-scale weather pattern has barely changed in the last 24 hours. A broad and energetic trough is still in place north of the Great Lakes, with very weak mid- and upper-level flow across the southern and western CONUS. A separate, rather stationary, low-amplitude trough/upper-low is noted over Texas via water vapor imagery. Then, Hurricane Isaias is still spinning in the Gulf, with cirrus clouds fanning up into the southeast CONUS as it starts to merge with the wave over Texas. At the surface, a weak front associated with the edge of the baroclinic zone marked by the jet stream is in place across our area. This has not tampered much with temperatures as highs are on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but quite dry air on the north side of the front has been pushing into our central Missouri counties. Current obs show relative humidity values down to around 20% in the Rollay-Vichy area.

High confidence in dry weather and well above normal temperatures:

The pattern through Friday is not expected to change much as Hurricane Isaias approaches the Gulf shore. As this occurs, the aforementioned trough axis in Texas will slide south of the Ozarks, placing us in an area of very weak upper-level flow, continuing to bring well above normal temperatures and clear skies. Lows tonight and Friday night are forecast to be rather mild in the mid-50s to mid-60s, with highs Friday reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s again.

This will challenge some records in place, notably an 86 F record high at Rolla-Vichy, a 90 F record high at West Plains, and a 92 F high at Springfield and Joplin. The NBM gives a 10-30% chance for the Springfield/Joplin/West Plains records to be broken, and a 92-98% chance of the Rolla-Vichy record to be broken.

Dry air and fuels may increase fire start danger:

The latest Drought Monitor has expanded Severe (D3 out of 4) Drought across much of the Ozark Plateau area. Severe agricultural impacts have become more widespread as grasses and foliage dry out substantially. This, paired with the well above normal temperatures and dry air with relative humidity values tanking into the 20-35% range, will promote a fire start risk. This is especially true where air and fuels are driest, which is generally along the Ozark Plateau toward central Missouri.

Winds are forecast to be somewhat varied through the weekend as the weak front hangs around the region, but in general, speeds of less than 15 mph are expected. This would limit fire spread danger.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Increase in cloud cover Saturday due to Hurricane Isaias:

Come the weekend, Hurricane Isaias is forecast to track somewhere along the east side of the Mississippi River Valley, then lift NE somewhere along the south side of the Ohio River Valley. With high pressure aloft over our area, a sharp cutoff in the rain shield is forecast in our eastern areas. Therefore, some cloud cover increase is expected east of Highway 65, but any precipitation would be rather light and sprinkly, bringing little relief for drought-stricken areas.

High confidence in dry weather and above normal temperatures:

Areas that don't see increased cloud cover Saturday are forecast to stay well-above normal. Highs continue in the mid-80s to lower 90s northwest of I-44. Those areas within the cloud cover have forecasted highs within the 70s.

Once Isaias exits eastward, a more amplified ridge with an energetic jet stream across the northern CONUS will continue to keep our weather dry and borderline hot. Temperatures will continue to be in the mid-80s to lower 90s through the middle of next week, with lows in the 60s. The hottest day looks to be Monday as the ridge axis moves over our area. Current forecasts are in the lower 90s, some areas nearing the middle 90s. This will surely challenge the current records of 87 at West Plains, 90 at Rolla-Vichy, 93 at Joplin, and 91 at Springfield.

Relief from the well above normal temperatures may come later next week as NBM spreads increase drastically. However, not much stock can be put into any one scenario due to the nature of the incoming pattern. Highs in the 80s to 90s could continue into next weekend, or drop to the 70s by the end of the work week.

Uncertainty exists in 20-40% rain chances early next week:

The uncertainty in temperatures is due to high model spread in how systems over the Pacific will interact next week. Tropical Storm Rachel, currently in the east Pacific Ocean, is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Sunday, merging with a polar jet stream trough over the west coast. This energy is then forecast to progress east-northeastward into the Plains next week, which brings us our next 20-40% rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

That said, LREF ensemble clusters are quite varied in the evolution of the pattern once Rachel gets absorbed into the jet stream. This evolution is much like the pattern that gave us our last rain chances. One cluster has the tropical system quickly being absorbed and the wave quickly moving into our area between Tuesday and Thursday. Another cluster has the polar trough detach from the jet stream, become a closed low, and stay over the southwest CONUS for much longer.

If you recall from the beginning of October, the closed low was the scenario that panned out, and since models don't handle closed lows well, the system continuously slowed down, pushing back rain chances. Given this scenario, would not be surprised to see a trend in later rain chances as we move forward and better resolve the features that will impact our weather.

Time will tell, but whether its as early as Tuesday or as late as the end of the week, the large-scale pattern should bring a wave through sometime, which should cool things down and bring some rain chances--eventually.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the entire TAF period beneath clear skies. A very weak frontal boundary in the area may vary winds slightly from those in the TAFs, but winds should mainly be south-southeasterly at 5-12 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.