textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area today and Wednesday, and possibly across the eastern portions of the area on Thursday. Highs today will warm into the mid to upper 80s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday. Some record highs may be approached on Wednesday. - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (70 to 95% chances) are expected Wednesday night into Friday. There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A warmer air mass will advect into the area with above normal temperatures occurring today. Highs will warm into the middle to upper 80s across much of the area this afternoon. Slightly more cloud cover could occur across the far western portions of the area where low to mid 80s are still expected. There is a low chance for an isolated shower and may be a rumble of thunder to occur across the far northwestern portions of the area this afternoon/evening as lift within the warm air advection and slight better moisture combine. The better chances for this activity will remain to the northwest of the area and most if not all of the area should remain dry today. Southerly winds will occur today and some gusts up to around 20 mph will be possible at times today mainly west of Highway 65.

Lows tonight into Wednesday morning will range from the lower 60s across south central Missouri to around 70 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri as the warmer air mass remains in place.

The warmer air mass will remain in place across the area on Wednesday as 850mb temps warm into the upper teens Celsius. Highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s which will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal and may approach some record highs across portions of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An upper level low is currently digging into the southwestern U.S. early this morning. The low will continue to slowly dig to the southwest today into Wednesday then will start to lift to the northeast into the central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. The Low will then slow and open into a trough then move east through the area on Friday. Moisture will start to advect north into the area ahead of the system and the remnants of Hurricane Polo will also merge into the upper level low also increasing moisture levels with the system.

As the upper level low start to lift northeast Wednesday night, bands of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough across portions of Texas and Oklahoma and lift northeast, moving into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some weak elevated instability will develop along and west of I-49 late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night so some scattered showers and storms will be possible overnight Wednesday ahead of these bands of showers and storms. The storm motion will be to the northeast and the lift will remain across the western portions of the area through a good portions of the day on Thursday as the low remains west of the area. Therefore, bands of showers and storms will likely develop and occur at times from Wednesday night and much of Thursday mainly west of Highway 65. Later Thursday into Thursday night the now trough will start to move east and the showers and storms will start to move east across the rest of the area into Friday morning. The rain will not remain over the eastern portions of the area as long as they will west of Highway 65 where the heaviest rainfall is expected. With the increase moisture precipitable water values will increase to around 2", which is high for this time of year. Therefore, the showers and storms will be efficient rain producers and where training can occur heavy rainfall will occur. Models continue to indicate the potential for bands of 2 to 3" of rainfall occurring across portions of the area mainly west of Highway 65, with locally heavier amounts possible where training of storms can occur. Amounts east of Highway 65 are generally expected to be up to 1 to 2".

The slow movement of the system on Thursday will likely keep the eastern portions of the area dry until later in the day. Across the western portions of the area, rain will likely occur at times through much of the day. As a result highs are expected to warm into the middle to upper 80s across the eastern Ozarks on Thursday again well above normal for this time of year. Temperatures across the west within the rain, will likely not warm much with highs in the 70s occurring. Southerly winds will occur again on Wednesday and some gusts up to around 30mph will be possible at times. As the system move east Thursday there could be the potential for some strong storms mainly along and south of I-44 Thursday afternoon and evening with gusty winds the main risk.

A cold front will move south through the area on Friday, the upper level trough will also be moving east across the area leading to some scattered showers and a few storms occurring along the front Friday into Friday night. There are still some timing differences on how fast the front pushes south of the area, from as early as Friday night to as late as during the day on Saturday. Overall, the models are trending drier for this weekend after the front pushes south of the area Friday night into Saturday. Cooler conditions will occur behind the front with highs in the upper 60s into the 70s this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR through the period with southeasterly winds gusting to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds diminish overnight to 10 knots but then increase back to 20 knots for Wednesday. Broken to overcast skies will persist through the period as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 30: KSGF: 91/1979 KJLN: 93/1952 KVIH: 93/2023 KUNO: 92/1952

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.