textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will develop this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Elevated fire weather conditions will also occur this afternoon and this evening as the gusty winds and dry conditions combine.

- Warming trend into the start of the weekend. A drier stretch of weather is expected through Saturday.

- 50-80% chance for a line of gusty showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Severe wind gust potential exists east of Highway 65. - Then, 30-50% chances for light wintry precipitation Sunday night as colder air rushes in, bringing 30-40 mph wind gusts with it.

- Below average temperatures in the 30s Monday will quickly rebound to above average by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Surface high pressure is currently sliding southwest of the area as observed by northwesterly winds gradually shifting to westerly from northwest to southwest. The high pressure system is following a cold front that has reached the Gulf in Texas, then stretching all along the Appalachian Mountains. This cold front has brought current temperatures down into the 30s with lows on track to meet the upper 20s to lower 30s. Aloft, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a longwave trough axis currently moving west to east through our area. On the upstream side of the axis, 150-160 kt jet streak is nosing into Washington and Montana, which is forcing a surface low just north of the state of Washington.

Elevated fire *weather* conditions today, but fuels remain damp:

As the surface high pressure continues to slide to the south and then southeast of the area, winds will gradually shift to southwesterly for today. Meanwhile, the aforementioned jet streak in the northwest CONUS will ZOOM into the northern Plains, bringing with it the quickly moving, but dynamically potent, clipper system also through the northern CONUS. The tight pressure gradient ahead of this clipper system will reach into our northwestern CWA, increasing wind speeds to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph north of I-44, and especially along the MO/KS border where terrain induces less friction. The southwesterly winds will initiate a warming trend, modestly warming temperatures into the middle 50s to lower 60s today. The rising temperatures and remaining dry air mass behind the front will drop afternoon relative humidity values into the 20-30% range (some areas atop ridges may drop below 20%).

While this meets elevated to locally significant fire weather criteria for areas north of I-44 and especially along the MO/KS border, recent rainfall has kept fuels in the 15-20% range. Now, this is down from 20-30% last night, but still damp enough to potentially limit overall concern. Fuels will be monitored through the morning to see how they react to the drying air mass and windier conditions before explicitly messaging widespread elevated fire weather danger.

Warming trend and dry weather into the weekend:

The clipper system and associated jet streak will stay north of the area, but the attending cold front is progged to stall somewhere around the MO/AR border Friday. This will create a range of highs from around 70 F along the border, to around 60 F in west-central MO. Lows will then be in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect in warmer air Saturday, bringing highs to the lower to middle 70s and lows in the middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

50-80% chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday:

Global ensembles are coming into agreement for a very energetic and amplified wave to dig through the central CONUS Sunday. Mass response ahead of the wave is progged to bring 50-55 F dewpoints to the region before the very strong cold front and attending trough push through. The moisture will produce a 50-80% chance of rain along the front.

GFS/ECMWF deterministic trends are starting to signal for a slightly slower trough passage with a slightly more negative tilt of the wave. While the controls are starting to signal this, only ~42% of the LREF members are starting to move toward the negative tilt. If this scenario pans out, greater mass response could advect a narrow band of "just-in-time moisture" with dewpoints nearing 60 F ahead of the front. This would create 250-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. With an energetic trough, 0-6 km bulk shear will easily reach above 35-40 kts. This brings a chance for thunderstorms and a marginal threat for some severe wind gust risk. Given the crashing cold front, showers/storms would likely peak in a thin line along the cold front bringing mainly a wind threat of 50-60 mph gusts. The most appreciable threat looks to east of Highway 65 as the timing of the frontal passage looks to converge during the peak heating hours in this location. The SPC has outlined this area on the northwestern edge of a 15% contour. Based on this placement, any wiggles in timing of the front or amplitude of the wave could mean more areas get added to the risk, or areas get trimmed from the risk.

Trends will continue to be monitored for any run-to-run and model-to-model consistency for a more negatively tilted trough and/or a slower front progression which would both increase the chance for some severe weather in more of our area Sunday.

30-40+ mph wind gusts behind the cold front Sunday night:

Since this will be a very strong wave and surface cyclone, winds behind the front will be quite gusty with current forecasts bringing 20-30 mph sustained winds and 30-40 mph gusts late in the afternoon and through the overnight hours. Speeds have been trending up with each subsequent NBM run, with current probabilities giving a 30-50% chance for wind gusts >40 mph across the area, and a 25-35% chance for wind gusts >45 mph along the I-49 corridor. That gives a 25-35% chance for a Wind Advisory to be issued along the I-49 corridor Sunday/Sunday night.

30-50% chances for light wintry precipitation Sunday night:

The very edges of the backside precipitation shield/deformation band will then clip our area Sunday night. A look at deterministic forecasts suggests this will all be snow as cold air is quickly ushered in. However, LREf cluster examination does show some slight differences in system timing/position, which introduces some uncertainty in precipitation type. That said, the main low looks to move across the Great Lakes, so any precipitation (30-50% chances) would be mostly light, and with highs in the 60s Sunday, any snowfall would be quick to melt from the warm ground, limiting any accumulations.

Below average temperatures Sunday night through Monday night:

Strong cold air advection will usher in colder air for Sunday night through Monday night. Lows look to be in the upper teens to middle 20s with highs struggling to reach the middle 30s to lower 40s. Springfield has a current forecast of 39 F, but the 25th percentile of the NBM suggests potential for highs to even be near around 34 F. Either way, temperatures will be below average for this time of year.

Quickly warming back to above average by the middle of next week:

Fear not! The compact and meridional structure of the mid- and upper-level wave means that once the system exits, heights will be quick to rise and southerly flow will be quick to return. This will bring highs in the the middle 40s to upper 50s Tuesday, and the middle 60s to lower 70s Wednesday. Lows look to warm from the lower 30s and lower 40s Tuesday night to the lower 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the area this afternoon through Friday morning and beyond. Gusty winds will develop this afternoon and especailly this evening and will continue into tonight out of the south to southwest. Low level wind shear is also possible this evening into Friday morning. A front will move through the area Friday morning and will shift the winds to the west then the northwest. No rain will occur along the front, just an increase in high level clouds.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.