textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon scattered showers and storms late this afternoon into this evening through Thursday. Highest chances (30-60%) south of Interstate 44 Wednesday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall. - Warming trend for the end of the week through the weekend with heat indices in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Conditions across the Ozarks this morning were rather mild with satellite imagery showing clear skies across the region. Surface high pressure was in place across northern Missouri and will keep the region dry into this afternoon. After morning lows in the 60s, temperatures will warm into the middle 80s to around 90 this afternoon.

Surface low pressure and middle to upper level shortwave energy is forecast to slide west underneath the upper level ridge that is in place over the center of the country. This will bring increased moisture, on the order of around 1.50in of precipitable water, and the potential for showers and isolated storms to the Ozarks. Chances will be best late this afternoon in to tonight across far south central Missouri with the better chances overnight and into Wednesday.

Continued moisture advection through the day Wednesday, thanks to the surface low, will allow for increasing shower and storm potential through Wednesday morning. However, the better potential (50-70%) will come during the afternoon what instability peaks, though generally less than 1500j/kg. This should still allow for the development of scattered showers and non severe storms during the afternoon and evening mainly southeast of I-44. With weak upper level flow, storm motion will be rather slow. Combined with the high PWs, locally heavy rainfall should occur and the WPC does have the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This could result in localized flooding.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Shower and storm chances will continue into Thursday though with less coverage and intensity. This may depend however on whether the low loiters across northern Arkansas or moves off more quickly. Cloud cover and precipitation should work to limit highs in the 80s with a few spots around 90, especially west of Highway 65.

The upper ridge will begin to reestablish itself Friday and continue to build east across the Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend into early next week. Initially, Friday, the area may be under the influence of northwest flow aloft. This would bring the potential for a few showers through current ensembles keep chances less than 20 percent.

Depending on the how warm the 850mb temperatures become, afternoon highs may be able to warm into the lowers 90s by Saturday. Heat indicies are currently forecast to only reach the upper 90s to around 100 with the heat risk tool indicating the potential for moderate to major category's to be reached. This pattern then continues into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Little if any change in the forecast is expected from the previous forecast. High pressure across the northern half of Missouri will remain in control of the regions weather through this morning with VFR flight conditions. Winds will be generally light and variable as a result.

An area of low pressure caught under the ridge, will slowly move to the west today allowing for some showers to develop late this afternoon into this evening. Chances will be less than 15 percent into tonight but will increase into Wednesday. Chances for storms also exist but with even lower chances. As a result, have kept any weather mention out of the TAF, but will monitor through the day.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.