textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog potential this morning which may impact the morning commute for areas generally east of Highway 65.

- Gradual warming trend through midweek.

- Rain chances return midweek with strong to severe storms possible Wednesday. Extreme heat possible again next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The Ozarks currently sit within a narrow region of ridging through the midlevels with somewhat meridional flow in the upper levels as the broader ridge moves closer. We're seeing clear skies with calm winds this morning, which will likely allow for some fog development as we cool to the dewpoint in much of the area over the next several hours. HREF probabilities for <0.25 mile visibility are low, topping out at 25% in spotty areas north of Hwy 60. The valleys in the Phelps and Dent county area, by comparison, have about a 40% chance of seeing DFA criteria. This is due to the expectation that this area will cool below the crossover temperature, whereas most of the rest of the area will not. While there is a consistent signal for fog in generally the northeastern portions of the area across multiple models, the solutions are still depicting visibility of several miles. Winds are calm now, but picking up by just a few mph by the time we reach saturation in the next few hours may help preclude dense fog formation. A DFA does not appear necessary at this time, but conditions will be closely monitored as we near sunrise and headlines will be issued as necessary.

Once we make it past the patchy fog, today will be very nice, with fair weather Cu sprinkled across an otherwise sunny summer sky. Highs will mostly land in the 80s, with mid-80s expected in the east and highs near 90 in the west. Farther to our northwest, in the central and northern Plains, an upper level low will start to break down the ridging/zonal flow we've seen headed our way the last few days. A corridor between Kansas and Minnesota may see strong to severe thunderstorms today as the cold front drops through. This is important to note, as this is the system that will bring widespread rain to southern Missouri later this week.

Even with clear skies tonight, all of the insolation we get during the day today will keep low temperatures on an upward trend. Lows will be about 20 degrees cooler than high temperatures today, meaning our far southwestern counties may not cool below 70, while the eastern valleys should get into the mid- to low-60s. Southeast winds will pick up, even exceeding 10 mph along the plateau, keeping fog development at bay. Highs Tuesday will warm yet another few degrees, especially as a surface low pressure center nudges in from the west and enhances WAA. With an increase in moisture, some areas around the Kansas and Arkansas borders may see Heat Index values close to 100. Clouds will slowly increase across the area throughout the overnight as upper level energy moves closer.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Wednesday, the cold front attendant to the upper level system begins to swing down through Missouri. The surface low that has been hanging out to our west joins forces with it, and we can expect rain across much of the area. SPC has drawn a Marginal risk spanning from eastern Kansas through central Missouri into west-central Illinois including counties in northern and western portions of our CWA. Given that this is a Day 3 risk, it is likely to change both in area and severity. The modulating factors are instability, which is uncertain due to cloud cover, and front positioning, which may be impacted by thunderstorm outflow on its way to us. If the instability and lift can line up, the deep-layer shear looks sufficient, as well as parallel to the front. This preliminarily suggests a line or line segments as the primary threat, meaning we may be looking at severe potential in the way of damaging winds. These storms would quickly outrun the strong deep-layer shear as they move to the southeast, which is why most of the area is outlooked in "general thunder" with the small Marginal in the north.

Currently, timing-wise, things look to start approaching the CWA around sunrise. Progression is slow, and most may not see much during the day. The front finally dives deeper into the CWA Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Shortwave energy behind the main trough along with surface low pressure to the southwest push more rain into the area even after the main front has stalled/retreated, keeping Thursday fairly rainy with PoPs 40-60%. The activity lingers into Friday, slowly moving out to the southeast.

With temperatures dampened a bit during the rainy days, southwest flow Saturday paired with sunny skies helps to kick the warming trend back into gear. Heat Index values will climb once again, breaking 100 for some. Above-average temperatures seem to make a return heading into mid-August, and we will need to keep an eye out for Extreme Heat once again.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF period, but there is a <20% chance for fog at KSGF tonight into early Monday. Left that out of the forecast at this time due to uncertainty.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.