textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect through Thursday as daily heat indices climb to around 100 degrees. Little night time relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- An overall drier pattern will accompany the heat this week with only low-end rain chances by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a mid level ridge building over the southern US with a trough out west. 850mb warm air advection was occurring which will place a lid on rain chances for the next several days as well as increase surface temps. A surface low across the lee of the Rockies has created a pressure gradient with steady south winds occurring. Skies were mostly clear however it remains very warm and muggy with temps and dews both in the 70s.

Hot and Humid: The mid level ridge will continue to expand over the area and points east today and Monday. Mostly clear skies will allow for strong heating and given the warm start and mean 850mb temps around 22-23C, highs will most likely reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Given the moist soils/vegetation, surface dews will most likely stay at least in the 70-75 degree range, even with day time mixing. This will create heat indicies in the upper 90s to low 100s today and Monday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Hot and Humid/Heat Advisory: Ensemble guidance suggests that this ridge will remain in place just east of the area through at least Thursday. There are signs that the ridge may try to retrograde west some by Friday and Saturday therefore the Heat Advisory may need to be extended through those days in later updates. The main limiting factors for temps not to warm even higher is the green vegetation from previous heavy rains and even warmer air aloft displaced west of the area. However we will likely see dews in the 70s through the week which will keep heat indicies around 100 degrees. The NWS Heat Risk tool has the entire area reaching the Major category through this week which generally equates to heat related impacts affecting anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries. This will be a prolonged period of excessive heat heading into the holiday weekend.

Low Rain Chances: There are some subtle signs of an environment conducive of pulse/isolated afternoon storms by Thursday and Friday however confidence in coverage of any precip is still low. If mid level heights can reduce further by the end of the week then chances may increase however precip chances currently remain less than 20 percent through Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with just passing high clouds. Winds will remain southerly with increasing speeds and gusts today. Surface wind gusts could reach 30 mph at JLN. Low level wind shear is likely through 14z and again tonight, especially at SGF and JLN.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.