textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall through tonight due to recent heavy rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

- Active weather returns from mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Synoptic & Mesoscale Overview:

A closed upper-level low was slowly pivoting northeast toward the Hudson Bay, with the attendant surface cold front extending south-southwest through the Midwest and into the Plains. A second, more diffuse front (from morning convection) was draped across central and eastern Missouri. A remnant outflow boundary was located across far southern MO and northern AR.

Scattered Storms this Afternoon:

A glance at satellite shows partial clearing across southern Missouri in the wake of the morning precipitation along with somewhat agitated cumulus along the aforementioned outflow boundary across southwest MO and northern AR. Guidance has wobbled on how much--or even if--convection initiates this afternoon, but this area (roughly along and south of Highway 60) will be the location to watch for a scattered severe thunderstorm risk between 1pm and 5pm. With effective bulk shear of 30-40+kt and sufficient destabilization (the big question mark), supercells capable of producing isolated hail to golf balls and damaging wind gusts. Overall confidence in occurrence is low.

Enhanced Severe Risk this Evening and Tonight:

The higher confidence severe thunderstorm risk is late this evening into tonight. Initial supercells are likely to develop ahead of the cold front in northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas, and southwest Iowa amidst steep lapse rates, moderate deep-layer shear, and rich moisture. Upscale growth into clusters and linear segments is likely as the front pushes southeast into southwest Missouri and our southeast Kansas counties. If storms can remain discrete, hail up to golf balls will be possible along with damaging winds. As storms grow upscale, damaging winds will be the primary hazard. Bowing segments will be capable of producing gusts of 70-80 mph. Low-level shear will initially be modest but increase with time as the low-level jet increases, so a few tornadoes will also be possible. Storms will gradually diminish in intensity as they push through southwest Missouri with waning instability, possibly becoming outflow- dominant.

Timing: Storm time of arrival has slowed slightly over the last 12 hours. Guidance suggests the leading edge of the line/clusters reaches southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri between 9pm and 11pm, the I-44 corridor between 11pm-2am, and south-central MO between 2am-5am.

Flood Risk Tonight:

The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall across much of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the area ahead of the cold front, with models pegging PWATs at a soupy 2.2 to 2.4". Rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be possible with the strongest updrafts. Guidance continues to depict a widespread 1-3 inches in total with localized pockets near 6 inches, which would result in flash flooding.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Sunday-Monday:

Drier air will filter in behind the cold front on Sunday. Apart from a few light showers that linger Sunday morning, mostly dry conditions will persist through Monday along with pleasant (below average) temperatures in the mid 70s.

Storm Chances Return Mid-week:

Ensembles depict a shortwave trough pivoting through the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening 500 mb jet. Low- confidence rain chances exist late Tuesday into Wednesday as a diffuse warm front lifts into the area.

Better thunderstorm chances arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Global models depict strong destabilization occurring ahead of the front within a corridor of stronger shear under the enhanced 500 mb flow, which may support the development of strong storms. SPC has highlighted a broad 15% risk for severe weather across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Indeed, AI and machine learning guidance show a signal for severe storms in a similar area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Thunderstorms over the region will continue to push southeast, bringing eventual VFR conditions by late morning today.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts. For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for today and overnight into Sunday morning.

From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast for today through tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.