textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool temperatures today. Scattered shower and thunderstorms across the area this morning through tonight. Localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding will be possible across the area.

- High confidence in excessive heat building into the area on Saturday and Sunday, and persisting into next week. Highs in the middle 90s to near 100, with heat index values around 100 to 110+ degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

This Morning-This Evening: A rather unorganized complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to track eastward across eastern Kansas this morning, with additional isolated showers well ahead of the primary shortwave energy. This activity has been confined to portions of south central MO early this morning. Meanwhile, the approaching complex is being fueled by a 20 to 30 knot low- level jet over the Central Plains. Expect this LLJ to remain stationed over central/eastern Kansas through this morning, resulting in a weakening trend of the unorganized complex as it enters into our area later this morning. In general, CAMs paint a picture of the greatest coverage across west central into central MO through the morning.

As we progress into the early afternoon, additional development is progged to occur west of the area and translate through the Ozarks. The environment remains favorable for a localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding, as gleaned by PWATs approaching 2.0+ inches this afternoon. This will be amplified by the LLJ nosing into the area this afternoon, though instability looks to remain marginal at best (MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg). WPC captures the flash flood potential with a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook over much of the area today/tonight. The greatest concern for flash flooding will be where repeated thunderstorms train over the same areas. Efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per a hour would yield localized heavy rainfall corridors. As for forecast rainfall amounts, there continues to be some discrepancies on pinning down the exact location of these heavier corridors. HREF PMM capture a few localized narrow corridors of 1 to 3 inches, with the max depicting the high-end solution of an isolated 3 to 5 inches. Pinning down these exact locations will best be forecasted by an analysis of mesoscale and radar trends in the near term. Much of the afternoon activity dissipates this evening, with the latest trends suggesting a lack of redevelopment tonight into Saturday morning. This scenario would be favored in the wake of subsidence, though a few CAMs still depict scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting through the overnight. It is worth noting, there will be periods of dry time today and a washout is not expected for entire area. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates through today.

With rain chances and cloud cover across the area today, temperatures will remain rather cool for much of the area. The northern half of the area will likely remain the upper 70s to lower 80s, with the warmest temperatures (middle to upper 80s) nudging into southeast KS and southwest MO.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Saturday-Thursday: Friday's system dissipates to the south and east into Saturday morning, with isolated showers and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) lingering through the morning. The timing of dissipation will play a role in how quickly heat and humidity are able to overspread the area. This approaching heat wave is characterized by a strong upper level ridge building into the region. 850mb temperatures are progged to push 23 to 25 C as early as Saturday across the western half of the area. If clouds and precipitation clear the area by Saturday afternoon, temperatures look to push into the lower to upper 90s. Confidence in this potential is greatest along and west of Highway 65 on Saturday afternoon, with heat index values approaching 100 to 110. This is well supported by the probabilistic suite of guidance. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the extent of dewpoints actually reaching into the upper 70s, but the message remains consistent for excessive heat. For this reason, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the entire area from 1pm Saturday through 7pm Tuesday.

Confidence increases into Sunday, and beyond into early next week that a heat wave takes shape over the region. High temperatures soar well into the middle to upper 90s, with low 100s across southeast KS and southwest MO. This will be accompanied by heat index values ranging from 100 to 110+. Thus, confidence in heat headlines is high, and is a matter of advisory versus warning criteria being met. A few record highs may be approached, as seen in the Climate section of the AFD. Minimal overnight relief is expected with this heat wave, with overnight lows staying in the upper 70s to near 80. The hottest temperatures occur on Sunday through Tuesday. Any necessary plans should be put into action, allowing ample time to prepare for a prolonged, multiple day heat wave.

Meanwhile, any precipitation chances remain minimal beyond Saturday, at less than 10%. While confidence is highest in the heat wave persisting into Tuesday, there is some indications that the heat lingers into the middle of next week. This will be determined by if the upper level ridge retrieves back to the east or remains stationed over the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A system moves through the region today, bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Widespread cloud cover can be expected, with instances of MVFR flight conditions within heavier showers or thunderstorms. This is captured by visibility reductions around 4 miles and ceilings around 3000 feet. The greatest coverage of precipitation will occur this morning through the evening, becoming more isolated in nature tonight. Light south-southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots, with an occasional gust up to 20 knots this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Record High Temperatures:

July 26: KSGF: 104/2022 KJLN: 107/2022 KUNO: 103/2022 KVIH: 101/1999

July 27: KSGF: 102/2012 KJLN: 105/2011 KUNO: 102/1999 KVIH: 102/1899

July 28: KSGF: 102/1986 KJLN: 104/2011 KUNO: 103/1986 KVIH: 100/1999

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.