textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Less than 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Most areas stay dry.

- 30-50% chances of storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes.

- Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring.

- 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with attendant low confidence in locations of severe and flooding risks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The closed mid-level low that has been sitting over Missouri is still very, very slowly moving eastward, currently centered just NE of the Missouri bootheel as noted in water vapor imagery. The moisture that was residing within the low has therefore also shifted east, with locally northerly flow aloft bringing in dry very dry air over much of our region as noted in our 12Z sounding. Due to the drier air, despite temperatures on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, dewpoints in the 60s will limit Heat Index values to below 100 F.

Elsewhere, flow is somewhat more zonal, most notably within the relatively stronger flow across the northern CONUS. At the southern periphery of the stronger flow, a synoptic surface cold front is situated over NE into IA/MN. South of MO, a surface warm front is developing as a result of weak lee cyclogenesis over the OK/TX panhandle region.

Low chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon:

Due to the pocket of moisture situated within the weak closed low aloft in the bootheel region, weak small showers have fired in extreme south-central MO. This is expected to continue through the heat of the day with only a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and storms over the same region. Given the very small area of these showers as well as the isolated nature, many areas will remain dry.

Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon:

Thunderstorms across the central Plains are expected to be dissipating as they translate east into our region early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along this remnant complex through Thursday morning (30-50% chance). These are expected to remain sub-severe as wind shear will be quite weak.

The complex will create an Mesoscale Convective Vortex that will move east through Missouri during the day Thursday. The resulting subtle turning of winds with height ahead of the MCV will locally enhance shear (generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49) with lift along residual outflow within this regime to focus new thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon (generally after 2 PM).

Short-term guidance is still a bit varied on the magnitude of shear which will influence hazards a bit, but the HREF mean suggests 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear, promoting multi-cell clusters as the main storm mode. High temperatures in the lower 90s will result in inverted-V temperature in conjunction with sufficient Theta-E diffs which could promote greater downdrafts and microbursts within any stronger storm. Therefore, damaging winds up to 60 to 70 mph will be the main risk. Any taller storm may produce small hail up to quarters at the largest size.

There is a conditional risk for landspouts and/or tornadoes depending on how the MCV influences the environment. Three things need to occur for this risk to evolve. 1) The MCV needs to be strong enough to increase low-level shear/curvature. 2) Dewpoints need to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum (mid to upper 70s). And 3) temperatures need to be a bit cooler to lower dewpoint depressions and resulting LCLs. If these occur, some weak tornadoes will be possible. On the flipside, strong surface heating could lead to >8 C/km 0-1 km lapse rates, which in the vicinity of near surface vorticity from the MCV and synoptic fronts, could promote lanspouts. These are both very low confidence and conditional risks, however. We will need to see how conditions evolve through the day Thursday.

Slight (2 of 4) Risk for flooding Thursday night:

As night falls, focus then shifts to more of a flooding risk. A 30-40 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to develop across southern Missouri, which will be in the vicinity of the daytime storm's outflows and the synoptic surface fronts. Convergence at the nose of the LLJ within a zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.8-2.0 in PWATs (ranged from HREF mean and RAP forecasts) will bring a 40-75% chance for further shower and thunderstorm development throughout Thursday night. Due to any residual outflow and the synoptic front resulting in a largely W-E orientation, parallel to the mean 850-500 mb flow, training of storms and resulting excessive rainfall and flash flooding will be possible overnight Thursday.

Thermodynamics will allow for thunderstorms with rain rates up to 1-3 in/hr. That said, the orientation of the LLJ will be west-southwesterly, which may limit the overall magnitude of isentropic upglide lift which may keep coverage on the lower side keeping the flooding threat very localized to where storms train most. Anywhere that sees multiple storms may see localized amounts up to 3-5 inches.

Additionally, with elevated instability and sufficient shear, large hail up to quarters will be possible, but given the warm and moist profiles, the risk is expected to be lower (5% or less within 25 miles of any point.

Low confidence HeatRisk Thursday and Friday:

Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 90s Thursday and Friday with moisture increasing. This may lead to Heat Index values around 100-105 F. However, with expected MCV cloud debris and outflow each day, confidence is limited in widespread excessive heat. Greater Heat Index values would be limited to areas that see the most sunshine during the daytime.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

40-75% rain chances continue through the weekend:

With only weak mid-level energy traversing the central CONUS through the weekend, the synoptic thermal boundary will only slowly sag southward which will allow it to hang around the region Friday through Sunday. This will continue to bring 40-75% rain chances through Sunday (highest being 50-75% Friday night). Given little modification to the surrounding environment, some severe storms and localized flooding will continue to be possible through Sunday. At the moment, the entire area is in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather Friday and a Marginal (1 of 4) to Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall Friday through Sunday. Exact details are still very uncertain due to weak flow aloft making mesoscale details of each complex very important in how the location and magnitude of threats evolve each day.

"Cooler" Temperatures to begin next week:

An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 60-70% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 F at some point during the July 13-17 timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Conditions will largely remain VFR through the period, though there are scattered chances for thunderstorms both this morning and later tonight that may temporarily reduce ceilings. There is a damaging wind threat with the storm activity later tonight, which may impact airfield operations for a short time period due to LLWS. Outside of storm activity, winds will be primarily out of the southwest at less than 10 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.