textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms for northwestern portions of the area Saturday and Saturday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. Confidence in coverage and probabilities are low. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week as highs in the 90s return.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Rest of today: A few isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two are possible, mainly south of I-44. Some fog is possible overnight, but not expecting any widespread fog at this time. Looks for lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Saturday and Saturday night:

This time period is highly uncertain due to the nature of the setup and model disagreement.

The overall setup is that shortwave energy and WAA will result in potential for thunderstorms across the region (mainly N and W of the CWA) with a very unstable airmass in place. With our CWA on the fringe of better lift and forcing, we will depend more on outflow and thunder complex cold pools to bring convection into our area, which is very difficult to predict and models handle poorly.

Some guidance does suggest a Saturday morning complex diving into the CWA, which could bring a marginal wind threat if this materializes. The afternoon and evening has the overall best potential for severe storms, with the northwestern portions of the CWA being most favored. Threats are still tricky to pin down, but mainly looking at a marginal wind and hail threat, with potential for some stronger gusts and larger hail if things line up well.

Late Saturday into early Sunday is also uncertain as the environment may, depending on earlier convective evolution, favor a storm complex to move southeast into the area. However, models differ significantly on if and where this could occur. Worst case scenario is that a complex of storms moves through, bringing primarily a damaging wind threat.

Looking at precip changes through the rest of the long term shows almost daily 15-30% chances for showers and storms as we will see SW flow aloft with shortwave energy potential along with broad WAA.

Temperatures will once again be above average. Look for highs in the low to mid 90s Saturday, then the mid to upper 90s Sunday through Wednesday, with Thursday possibly looking just a little cooler.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A scattered mid-level cu field continues to diminish across the eastern half of Missouri this evening. Areas of fog will develop across south-central and southeastern Missouri after 08Z tonight, though it remains unclear if any impacts at the BBG terminal will be observed.

A weak mid-level wave will move into western Missouri after 12Z Saturday which may aid in the development of a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Better chances for convection arrive toward the end of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.