textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and well above normal temperatures into early next week. Highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Dry agricultural conditions paired with daily humidity values dropping into the 20-35% range may increase the chance for fire starts. Higher gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible early to middle of next week.

- More widespread rain chances return midweek next week, however uncertainty still exists regarding timing and system evolution.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Synoptic analysis shows a broad upper level troughing pattern over the northeast, with an additional upper low and subsequent trough over the west coast. Ridging is noted in between the two systems, with weak mid- and upper-level flow over the region. Additionally, Hurricane Isaias continues to spin over the Gulf coast just south of MS/AL as it continues to merge with a low-amplitude upper low over the southern CONUS. The warm and dry airmass continues over the region today, with satellite imagery showing clear skies over the area, and surface analysis depicting a weak warm front that pushed from west to east through the area this morning.

As of 1230 PM, observations showed temperatures ranging between the low to mid 80s, with highs expected to continue climbing into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and up to 90 degrees/the low 90s elsewhere. This approaches the record highs at the climate sites (Records are: Springfield/Joplin: 92 , West Plains: 90 , Vichy/Rolla: 86), however most should stay a few degrees below the record. The exception will be at Vichy/Rolla, so we'll have to continue monitoring observations to see if we can break the record.

With the dry airmass in place, minimum relative humidity values have been in the 30-40% range so far, and are expected to bottom out in the 25- 35% range by late afternoon (lowest values east of Highway 65). With south- southeasterly winds of 5-10mph occasionally gusting up to 10-15mph, some isolated pockets of elevated fire weather concerns will continue, primarily west of I-49 this afternoon/early evening. For today though, the lowest RH values don't align well with the wind gusts, so the fire concerns remain fairly low.

For tonight, overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Later this evening/tonight, Hurricane Isaias is progged to make landfall over AL/MS before weakening and pivoting northwest towards northern MS Saturday afternoon, and then northeast towards the Ohio Valley, further weakening through the remainder of the weekend. With the upper ridge situated over the Central Plains, most of the Hurricane remnants will remain out of our forecast area, with the exception of <20% chance of light rain over south-central MO.

Through the weekend and into the beginning of next week, the warm and dry airmass will continue, with highs remaining in the upper 80s and low 90s through Tuesday. Sunday will be the driest day, with minimum RHs in the 20-30% range. With the low humidity coupled with winds gusting up to 20-25mph west of Highway 65, this area will experience elevated fire danger Sunday afternoon/evening, meaning that weather and land conditions will be favorable for erratic fire spread if a fire were to start. Gusty winds up to 20-30mph will continue into Monday ahead of an upper level system, with the elevated fire danger shifting east of Highway 65 where the lowest RHs (25-30%) reside.

Looking back at the synoptic analysis for this weekend/next week, Hurricane Simon will continue to progress northward over western Mexico, with Tropical Storm Rachel progged to pivot northeast onto the southern coast of CA. An upper level closed low and associated trough will push down into the Pacific northwest over the weekend before ingesting Tropical Storm Rachel and pivoting over the desert southwest towards the Plains as it becomes an open wave. This is forecast to continue trekking towards the area, bringing our next chances of rainfall as early as Tuesday evening (30-60%), with the best chances (45-75%) on Wednesday, continuing into Thursday (40- 60%) before exiting the area Friday. There are still plenty of discrepancies between ensembles regarding the pattern's overall evolution and timing, so expect changes to the forecast over the next few days. It is worth mentioning that SPC has highlighted areas west of Highway 65 and north of Highway 60 in a Day 6 (Wednesday) 15% risk for severe weather. Again, this will largely be impacted by how this system evolves, so make sure to check back as the forecast matures and we get a better idea of the severe risk and timing.

This system will bring a gradual cool-down, dropping highs back to near-seasonal once it pushes through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the entire 00Z TAF period with mainly south-southeasterly winds at 5-12 kts. Some high clouds may reach into SGF and JLN after 12Z. Otherwise, skies remain clear.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.