textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms (10-30% chances) this afternoon and evening. Primary hazard with the strongest thunderstorms are wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Low potential for a few additional severe thunderstorms continues late tonight into Thursday morning. Primary hazards are damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and half dollar sized hail.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms (50-80% chances) tonight into Thursday morning across portions of west central into central MO. Forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches within the Flood Watch.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday, with the potential for marginally severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall.

- Heat returns this weekend into early next week, with increasing confidence in heat index values approaching 100 to 105.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: A shortwave translates through mid-level flow today, with a surface front sagging into portions of southeast KS and central MO. Ahead of this front, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are progged to develop in conjunction with peak daytime heating. Remnant overnight activity continues to fester along the front, mostly in form of dissipating showers. As for the development of isolated thunderstorms, coverage is expected to remain minimal given a stout cap in place over the area. However, it is worth noting the environment is highly unstable (CAPE ~2500-3000 J/kg). If thunderstorms do develop, the environment supports a few strong to marginally severe pulse- like thunderstorms, with the primary hazard being wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Most of the activity is expected to remain non- severe, in addition to many locations remaining dry through this afternoon and evening.

As we progress into tonight, more robust convection is expected to develop as the shortwave energy overspreads the region. Meanwhile, the surface front lifts back north a bit into portions of central MO and will be focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday morning. Strong warm air advection with a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet overrides the front, that generally becomes oriented west to east tonight. Ample instability in the vicinity, with PWATs pushing around 2.0 inches will support efficient rainfall rates upwards of 1 to 3+ inches per a hour. Confidence continues to increase that this activity will train over the same areas for a few hours, before outflows and front movement shift the axis of rainfall with time. With that being said, there is an increasing concern for a localized corridor of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. CAMs continue to vary on the exact placement of this anticipated corridor, with the generally consensus keeping it north of the Highway 54 corridor tonight. However, there remains some uncertainty if the axis remains just north of our area, or nudges into portions of central MO. Nonetheless, a Flood Watch is in effect for this area from 10 pm tonight through 10 am Thursday morning to account for the favorable environment for flooding. The current scenario, suggests that a widespread 1 to 2 inches remains in play, with a localized corridor of 3 to 5 inches. HREF and REFS LPMMs even paint the picture of slightly higher amounts, pushing towards 5 to 7 inches. WPC captured the flash flooding potential with a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.

In addition to heavy rainfall, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may occur overnight. This is a result of more favorable deep layer shear around 30 to 35 knots nudging into central MO. This would suggest a bit more organized updrafts are plausible, with storm mode remaining a question mark, whether we see embedded supercell structures or more linear segments. Primary hazards are damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the size of half dollars. The hail potential will be best realized with any embedded supercells.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Thursday-Friday: Convection will likely be ongoing into Thursday morning, with the best coverage confined to portions of central MO. Activity gradually dissipates through Thursday morning, with low confidence in any redevelopment along the front into Thursday afternoon as the better lift becomes displaced. For now, rain chances are around 10-30%. However, SPC introduced another Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This is supported by the lingering instability and deep layer shear. Otherwise, a wide variance of high temperatures on Thursday ranging from middle 80s (north) to middle 90s (south).

By Thursday night, additional shortwave energy is progged to move into the area with a nocturnal low-level jet in place. The highest shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday night into Friday morning will focused along the frontal boundary placement once again, and thus there may be the need to expand the Flood Watch. This lingering uncertainty will be better analyzed in subsequent forecast updates over the next 24 hours. Likewise, we will need to closely monitor the potential for marginally severe thunderstorms and/or localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The front gradually slides south and east of the region through Friday.

This Weekend-Early Next Week: As we get beyond Friday, an upper-level ridge gradually returns to the region. This would support a return of hot and humid conditions, in addition to drier weather. Highs on Saturday and Sunday reach back into the middle 90s, with heat index values around 100 to 105. This remains the storyline heading into early next week. While this heat is fairly common for this time of the year, we will still need to monitor for potential heat headlines. It is worth noting, the area remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with subtle differences or shifts in the pattern potentially reintroducing some thunderstorm chances into our area early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A system moves into the region today, with associated cloud cover overspreading the area. Isolated shower and thunderstorms remain low (10-30%) through the afternoon and evening, with confidence remaining low. Thus, a PROB30 group is being used to capture the potential. Additional low confidence chances may occur overnight tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities would accompany any of this activity.

Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the period with more clouds than sun later today. South-southwest winds becoming more south-southeast into this evening at 5 to 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-069>071-083.