textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southern Missouri until 10 AM this morning as localized bands of moderate to locally heavy rain at times move through portions of the area.

- Scattered rain chances will occur today and Saturday. A few strong storms may be possible along and west of I-49 Saturday afternoon/evening, but coverage will likely remain limited.

- Low rain chances will occur at times from Sunday into mid week next week, but much of the area will likely remain dry each day. Highs in the 80s for this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level low was located across Kansas early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms occurred on Thursday ahead of the trough, with some locally heavy rain occurring across portions of southern Missouri Thursday. The coverage of rain has decreased across the area but some light rain continued overnight. Upper level energy associated with the low is lifting north across Arkansas currently, were convection is developing. This energy will lift north into the area early this morning, moving to the north/northeast by late morning. Bands of showers, moderate at times, will continue to develop in Arkansas and lift northeast across portions of the area early this morning and could continue into the mid morning hours. Some weak MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg will also develop and move north with this activity and could result in some scattered embedded rumbles of thunder and locally heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values will be 1.75 to near 2" across the area the rest of the overnight hours into this morning which will produce efficient rainfall with any showers and storms. The lift will move north/northeast and will likely result in a band or bands of showers/scattered storms that will track over the same locations and could lead to locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially if any of these bands track over locations that received heavy rainfall on Thursday. Will keep the Flood Watch going as is until 10 am this morning, as these locations received the heaviest rainfall on Thursday, but some locally heavy rainfall could be possible north and east of the flood watch, but again these locations did not get as much rain on Thursday.

The bands of rain will likely lift northeast and out of the area by Friday afternoon. Instability will increase to around 800-1200 J/kg Friday afternoon/evening with a weak cap. Lift will be more limited behind the upper level trough, but if any outflow boundaries from the morning convection remain over the area, some scattered storms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. Shear will be weak so not expecting any severe weather. Storm motion will be slow so some locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but drier air will advect into the area in the 500-250mb level and coverage will be limited so the overall flooding risk will be low this afternoon/evening.

Shower and storm development will be possible across Kansas this afternoon/evening, if cool pools from the convection can congeal it is possible some showers/few storms move into the area from the west late tonight into early Saturday morning. A cap will be in place as you go east across the area early Saturday, so this activity would be weakening if it can develop and move into the area at all.

An upper level ridge will build over the region on Saturday with highs warming into the 80s. Instability will also increase, especially across the western portions of the area on to the west Saturday afternoon/evening. A cap will weaken across the area Saturday afternoon but models indicate that it will likely not totally erode. Lift will be more limited across the area and with a weak cap in place may limited storms. It is possible an out flow from Saturday morning convection will be over the area, the question is will there be enough lift along it overcome the weak cap. Theta-E difference will increase across the area especially west of Highway 65. Shear will remain on the weaker side, to limit organized convection. If storms can develop there could be the potential for a few strong storms across the western portions of the area Saturday afternoon/evening, with wind and small hail the main risk. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. If lift remains limited it is also possible many locations remain dry on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level disturbance is expected to track east across Kansas Saturday evening and move east across the region Saturday night into Sunday. There is still some difference between the models on the exact track of this disturbance, as some members keep it north of the area Saturday night into Sunday as others are further south. An upper level ridge will remain in place on Sunday into early next week, but will push back to the west slightly and flatten some with the upper level disturbance moving over the ridge. Therefore, rainfall chances will be better across the northern and eastern portions of the area closer to the disturbance on the eastern edge of the ridge, with chances decreasing to the southwest.

The ridge will remain over the area next week as it slowly moves east, though the ridge axis may remain just east enough that some low rain chances could be possible across the eastern Ozarks on Monday. Mainly dry conditions are then likely Tuesday through Thursday. Later in the week the ridge starts to move east as an upper level shortwave trough moves across the Plains towards the area and could bring some scattered rain chances back to the area.

Highs will warm into the middle 80s to near 90 Sunday into early next week, with slightly cooler temperatures by late week in the low to middle 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern Missouri will continue to push northeast at the start of the TAF period, while more isolated to scattered activity will fester across southern Missouri into the afternoon.

Status will build down overnight and produce IFR or lower ceilings and possibly result in reduced visibilities for higher-terrain locations. For this reason, lowered visibility was introduced into the BBG TAF after 08Z.

Weakening remnants of showers and thunderstorms may move out of Kansas late tonight into early Saturday morning and impact the JLN terminal. Confidence in occurrence is low, so any mention of lightning was relegated to a PROB30 group.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.