textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of drizzle into early Wednesday morning, especially along and northwest of I-44.

- Light rain chances return on Thursday (20-50%) with dry weather expected this weekend, and a warm-up next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Current conditions present a classic mid-latitude cyclone centered over the NE KS and NW MO corners. Widespread showers are noted ahead of the cold front east of Highway 63, a dry/clear slot is directly behind this band over the Highway 65 corridor, then low-level clouds are noted along and west of I-49 where the comma-head of the cyclone is positioned. Within this comma-head, some lowered visibilities due to brief bouts of drizzle have been observed. Widespread totals across the area are up to half an inch to an inch, with a localized band of 2-3 inches stretching from Kimberling City up through Marshfield and Lebanon. Elsewhere, another upper-level low is currently moving over the west coast.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms exiting the area:

The showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms across the eastern portions of our area are forecast to move out of the area by 6-7 PM. At this point, chances for any severe weather are very low as instability beneath these showers are less than 250 J/kg. That said, there is a very narrow corridor of up to 500 J/kg SB/MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front within the dry slot area. Some attempts have been made for showers to form within this corridor, though they have struggled immensely. Anything along this corridor would be the only chance for further severe weather before the front exits between 6-7 PM. But even then, the chance is quite minuscule.

Wind gusts up to 25-35 mph to persist into the evening:

15-20 mph winds have begun to shift to southwesterly as the front has been moving through the area. These winds will settle out of the west-northwest by 6 PM to midnight, diminishing to 10-15 mph as they do. During the rest of our daylight hours, gusts up to 25-35 mph are possible, especially within the narrow wedge of mostly clear skies currently over the Highway 65 corridor where greater mixing has resulted in observed gusts up to 35 mph at the Springfield ASOS.

15-30% chance for waves of light drizzle through tonight:

As previously mentioned, low-level clouds within the comma-head will overspread the area this evening and through tonight. Forecast soundings depicting saturated boundary layers capped by a dry inversion limiting any cloud ice, paired with waves of omega and upslope flow on the NW side of the Plateau should add in light drizzle production through tonight (15-30% chance). The cloud cover and moisture will keep low temperatures mild in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Dry and seasonable weather on Wednesday before next system:

The low-level clouds should mix out and dissipate by mid-day or early afternoon Wednesday, making way for clear skies. Due to some mild cold air advection and clouds for half of the day, highs are expected to be a bit cooler, but more seasonable, in the upper 50s to middle 60s Wednesday, and dropping into the middle 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night, which may bring some patchy frost potential in low-lying, protected areas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

High confidence in less than a half inch of rain on Thursday:

The upper-level low currently entering the west coast is forecast to eject into the central Plains on Thursday. Lift and a diffuse cold front associated with the wave will bring 20-50% chances of rain to the area. Any rain appears to be light in nature as any appreciable moisture is forecast to be locked in the Gulf by the cold front moving through today. Every LREF cluster keeps mean totals below a quarter inch. 90% of models depict widespread totals less than half an inch.

Dry and seasonable weather through the weekend:

After Thursday's wave, yet another upper-level trough is forecast to move through during the weekend. With the resulting jet stream just south of the area, and the trough axis only giving a glancing blow to our region, temperatures are expected to stay seasonable. Highs are forecast to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s Friday through Sunday, with lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. The lower 30s are expected to be in the eastern Ozarks, largely keeping areas west of Highway 63 above freezing.

A warm-up to above normal temperatures looks likely next week:

After the series of waves, ensembles are in fairly good agreement on ridging to take hold of the central and west CONUS going into next week. This will bring another warm up to above normal temperatures with highs reaching the 70s by Tuesday. NBM interquartile spreads keep temperatures in the 70s through at least the 12th, and the CPC agrees with their forecast for November 11-16 showing a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures.

Since forecast lows are currently supposed to stay above freezing for the Springfield area and many other areas across the CWA, this technically means the growing season is forecast to last into mid-November. For some context, September was our warmest on record. October was our second warmest on record. And above normal temperatures in November could keep these top warmest months going. Furthermore, MRCC data shows that Greene County's latest first freeze date on record is November 12th. If the warm temperatures indeed pan out, we could set a new latest first freeze date. Even furthermore, Greene County's earliest last freeze date is March 12th. This year, our last freeze was March 18th. Therefore, if the warm temperatures pan out, we could be looking at a record long "growing season" this year. Though it has been a bit too dry to grow much of anything lately.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR ceilings and westerly surface winds of 6-12 knots will prevail across the region into Wednesday morning as upper level low pressure continues to slowly migrate east across the Upper Mississippi Valley.

We do expect areas of drizzle tonight into early Wednesday morning. The most widespread and heaviest drizzle will occur in the vicinity of Springfield, where occasional IFR conditions are expected tonight. This will especially be the case after 04Z as surface winds become slightly upslope in nature. The potential for IFR at Joplin and Branson remains below 20%.

Any remaining drizzle will then end by late Wednesday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.