textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds will occur today and Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon.

- There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A chaotic synoptic pattern is evident in satellite products and model data today. In the upper levels, high pressure in the Gulf is creating ridging over the southeast U.S. and southern east coast, with more zonal flow over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes/northern east coast. A deep cutoff low is moving onto the California coast, with several shortwaves coming out of the Pacific northwest. Lower into the midlevels, a low pressure center is evident over Nebraska, which extends down to the surface. Southwest flow across the Ozarks is observed at all levels due to this low to our northwest. As it pushes into western Iowa today and tomorrow, the pressure gradient in southern Missouri tightens (particularly in the west), and we can expect some breezy conditions.

Though the southwest flow is streaming plenty of warmth and moisture into our area, the 12Z upper air sounding from this morning clearly shows a very stout inversion around 800 mb that is just not realistically breakable. The convective temperature is 86 degrees, and with plenty of cloud cover todays, highs are expected to top out around 80 degrees. It appears some models are not getting the message, as a few of them try to pop out some isolated showers toward south-central Missouri this afternoon. Some low (<20%) PoPs account for this low-probability scenario.

Winds decrease a bit after sunset, but clouds largely stick around, limiting radiational cooling while WAA continues overnight. Temperatures will only cool to around 70 with some mid-60s in lower elevation areas.

A dryline extends south from the low pressure center in Nebraska, bisecting Oklahoma and continuing all the way down into Mexico. This will be the feature to blame for our severe weather threat Tuesday. As drylines tend to do, it hangs out here for today, wiggling back and forth a bit with nearly boundary-parallel surface flow. While the inversion/cap is too strong to allow for appreciable convection today, tomorrow looks to overcome the (weaker) cap with a much more moist profile and a little more daytime warming with highs in the mid-80s (convective temperature closer to 80 Tuesday). Instability of 1000-2000+ J/kg, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear 30-50 kts will support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and (to a lesser extent) tornadoes. The risk would be highest in the west/northwest and diminish to the east/southeast. This activity is expected to initiate in the afternoon and remain severe into the evening before transitioning to sub-severe convection that lingers into Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Low pressure swings through the area Wednesday, bringing a cold front that disrupts the stagnant dryline. The rain from Tuesday night continues through the day Wednesday, but the extra push from the cold front Wednesday night will bring another round of severe potential. A brief window of uncapped instability focused along the western Missouri border will have the potential to support convection, though this is a bit more uncertain given the morning precipitation. At worst, convection will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Rain may linger into Thursday morning, ending west to east as the cold front lifts away to the north and support for precipitation ends. Without a true frontal passage, highs Thursday are still around 80. We'll see some clearing and sun Thursday, a welcome break from the rain before a more aggressive cold front swings through Friday night, finally bringing a pattern change from the southwest flow we've had all week. The SPC highlights Slight- equivalent severe potential with this frontal passage, and if this holds, more details on timing and expected severe hazards will be forthcoming.

The new airmass will be quite obvious once the rain passes on Saturday, with highs over the weekend only reaching the mid-60s for most.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Breezy conditions will continue through the period, with south-southwesterly surface winds gusting up to 20-30kts at all terminals. VFR conditions should prevail through the majority of the period, with the exception of lowered Ceilings at KJLN between approximately 11Z-17Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/9999

April 16: KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006

April 17: KSGF: 66/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.