textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- After near normal temperatures through Friday, above-average heat returns this weekend into early next week. Multiple days of high temperatures between 90-100 F and Heat Index values of 95-105 F are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The current state of the synoptic pattern has not changed much from 24 hours ago. Northwesterly mid- and upper-level flow still dominates our region with ridging across the western CONUS, and troughing across the eastern CONUS. The main changes are that a low-amplitude shortwave currently analyzed at the base of the longwave trough in the eastern CONUS has brought a surface cold front through our area. The front is currently analyzed right on, or just south, of the Missouri-Arkansas border. A relatively drier air mass behind the front will allow lows to drop into the 60s tonight, as opposed to the 70s from previous nights. Satellite imagery also reveals some light ground/valley fog developing near Branson and in the eastern Ozarks. Any patchy fog that does develop will dissipate a couple hours after sunrise.

Near normal temperatures expected through Friday:

Drier and relatively cooler air behind the front will bring temperatures back to near normal for a couple days. Additionally, with the lower dewpoints, these temperatures will feel somewhat pleasant for this time of year. Highs will range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s (warmer toward the SW corner of MO and SE corner of KS), with lows in the 60s.

Skies are expected to be mostly sunny, save for a few passing high clouds and cumulus clouds during the day. There are very low chances (<10%) of remnant showers from thunderstorm complexes in the Plains making it into the area. For now, confidence in this is very, very low.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Climatologically abnormal heat returns into early next week:

Come Saturday, the ridge currently over the southwest CONUS is forecast to begin building northeastward into our area, bringing with it the passage of a surface warm front Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will revitalize southerly flow and subsequent compressional and advection heating. According to NAEFS and ECMWF ESATs, 99.5th percentile 700 mb temperatures will result in above normal temperatures, with the Extreme Forecast Index at values of 0.85-0.95. These values have been steadily increasing the past few forecasts as global ensembles tighten toward the upper end of the temperature spreads. Highs are forecast to warm into the 90s, and even near 100 F, by early next week. Heat Index values will also rise to 95-105 F, with the greatest values toward the Missouri-Arkansas border. While this level of heat is not crazy for what we've already experienced this August, it is abnormal for early September (as highlighted by the ESATs and EFI). The CPC Heat Index climatology/forecast shows 90th percentile Heat Index values for early September at 95-100 F, with a 90-99% chance to exceed that range at some point in early September.

In addition to the abnormal heat for this time period, these temperatures are expected to persist over multiple days, which will bring back a Heat Risk for those vulnerable to heat and/or without proper cooling methods. NWS HeatRisk brings in Major to Extreme values to our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat-related precautions will need to be taken as we enter this timeframe.

With ridging and high pressure in place, rain chances are forecast to be minimal into early next week. That said, global models and NBM rain chances are quite persistent within southwesterly flow just north of our area, so it would not be too out of place to see a few rain chances sneak into the area at some points.

Potential for some elevated fire weather this weekend:

When southerly flow returns behind the surface warm front Saturday, moisture is forecast to lag a bit behind. Additionally, the winds are expected to be a bit breezy, especially west of Highway 65, where sustained speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 15-25 mph are possible. Pair this with the hot temperatures in the 90s, and you have a recipe for hot, dry, and breezy conditions. The Hot, Dry, and Windy Index (HDWI) is picking up on this, with near certainty in above 90th percentile conditions for this time of year, and around a 50% chance of exceeding the 95th percentile. Therefore, some elevated fire weather concerns may become present west of Highway 65 where the hottest, driest, and breeziest conditions are currently forecast. This is especially true as this are is currently in a Moderate Drought and continuing its way into Severe Drought territory.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting at all TAF sites through the entire period. Winds will be calm and variable through 16-18Z before increasing to 8-12 kts out of the north. As winds pick up, a 7-8 kft cu field should also develop. After 01-03Z, winds turn to northeasterly and diminish to 3-8 kts under clear skies. There is very low potential for some patchy ground fog toward the end of the period, but impacts to TAF sites are highly unlikely.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.