textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through the week. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Halloween weekend may be a wet one, with rain chances increasing to 35-50% Friday night and remaining elevated through Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Upper-air analysis reveals (at least) three shortwaves embedded within the larger longwave trough over the western CONUS as the ridge axis that has kept our weather dry lately shifts east this afternoon. A surface low was situated over northwest Kansas with a warm front extending east into northern Missouri and a diffuse cold front to the south into the Texas panhandle. Scattered mid and high clouds across eastern Missouri are shifting to the east with the ridge, resulting in clearing skies today.

Warm and Mostly Dry through the Week:

A lack of deep synoptic-scale ascent and modest moisture return will limit rain chances in the Missouri Ozarks through Thursday. Global models exhibit consensus in lifting a pair of shortwaves through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday, which will act to force a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm ahead of a surface cold front across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. It's possible a few light showers or sprinkles could spread into our far northwestern CWA Tuesday night and again Thursday morning, but chances remain low (10-20%), and most areas will remain completely dry.

Southerly winds and warm air advection will keep temperatures above the climatological average through the short term. Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the warmest days of the forecast period as weak ridging takes hold behind the aforementioned shortwaves. Forecast highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are around 15 degrees above average for this time of year.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Guidance continues to suggest that the train of shortwaves undercutting the ridging across the eastern CONUS will see its next push on Thursday night, with rain chances progressively invading further south by Friday evening. Daytime rain chances on Friday remain fairly low at this point due to the ensemble predictability limit, with 15-20% PoPs staying west of I-49 during the day, but as higher-resolution regional guidance begins to get into range through the week, these PoPs will likely become more refined spatially and temporally as mesoscale influences and the location of the shortwaves become better resolved.

Global ensembles and deterministic models remain well in agreement that the eventual breakdown of the ridge and widespread precip chances will be here by Friday night and Saturday, with an upper- level low lifting into the Southern Plains overnight Friday into Saturday. As a result, broad-brushed 35-50% rain chances on Saturday (Halloween)currently spread across the entire forecast area. It is possible at this point that Saturday does not remain a complete washout depending on the finer-scale details that are not yet resolved by longer range models, but because of the lack of certainty in placement, timing, and intensity of the wave due to how far out in the forecast period Saturday still is, we don't have many other details to report for the trick-or-treat forecast at this time, so stay tuned through the week as details become more clear.

As far as temperatures go, cloud cover associated with the shortwaves/rainfall will have the potential to limit temperatures some over the weekend. Signals don't currently suggest there will be significant air mass modification (aka, a cold frontal passage) as the shortwave moves through Friday night/Saturday, so cloud cover and rainfall will be the primary factor to monitor as far as temperatures go this weekend, otherwise remaining relatively steady. However, this also means there won't be a major drop in temperatures, so current guidance suggesting highs between 65-75 degrees seems like a fairly safe bet, even at such an extended time range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Scattered mid and high clouds will shift through eastern Missouri this afternoon while another wave of high clouds will fill in across southwest Missouri after 00Z.

Southerly winds will occasionally gust to 15-20 kt during the afternoon. They may take on a more southeasterly component after 00Z but ultimately prevail out of the south through the forecast period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.