textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in well above average temperatures through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80. Potential for record highs Tuesday. - Widespread 80-100% thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts, with lower confidence in large hail and tornadoes. Additional potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- Cooler behind the frontal passage mid-week, with a warming trend into next weekend accompanied by a drier stretch of weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a broad zonal flow over the area however there was a weak vort max moving through Oklahoma. A cut off low was still south of California. Increasing southwest flow aloft was bringing in very warm air with the 12z KSGF sounding measuring a 850mb temp of 17C which is well above average for early March. This warm air aloft will also establish a capping inversion which will play a role in storm development over the next day or two. The weak vort moving through Oklahoma does have some cloud cover for areas south of I-44 however rain chances look to primarily remain south of the area through the afternoon. Temps as of early afternoon were already in the 70s with dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Gusty southwest winds were also occuring with occasional gusts around 30mph

Well Above Normal/Near Record Temperatures through Tuesday: With several hours of heating left, temps should reach the middle to upper 70s over the area today with a location or two touching 80 degrees. Overnight, cloud cover will increase and combined with a steady south wind, temps will likely remain well above average (lower 60s). This will set us up for a very warm/near record day on Tuesday. Guidance continues to show the upper low moving into the southwest US through the day. Cloud cover will increase however model soundings continue to show a strong capping inversion in place. This will likely keep the area dry and very warm. Latest short term guidance is in strong agreement in highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s which could tie or break some records. See the climate section below for the numbers.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Severe Thunderstorm and Flooding Potential Tuesday Night/Wednesday: A rather complex scenario seems to be showing itself for Tuesday night. Not only does the upper low eject out into OK/TX, but additional energy swings through the northern plains. Therefore two main sources of upper level lift will be approaching the area. A surface front looks to set up from central Kansas into northern Missouri by Tuesday evening. A dry line then will set up across western OK into Texas.

Latest forecast soundings and HREF guidance continues to show an unstable but strongly capped environment over the area even into the early evening hours Tuesday. The HRW NSSL and HRW ARW do show a few showers/storms trying to form in the warm sector across south central Missouri Tuesday evening however there is low confidence in this occuring given the lack of forcing/strong capping inversion.

Of greater confidence is that there will be two areas of thunderstorm focus from 6pm to 12am. One area will be along the front from central Kansas into central and northern Missouri along the front. These storms will have supercell potential with all hazards (tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds). Latest HREF paintball plots suggest this will remain north of the area however we will need to watch St Clair, Benton and Morgan counties for any storms to clip these areas. The other area of storm focus will be storms that can congeal off the dry line and move into central Oklahoma and then into northwest Arkansas. These are the storms that may have the greatest chance of reaching southern Missouri after midnight. Damaging winds and large hail would be the most likely hazards with this activity.

The cold front looks to move through the area around sunrise Wednesday and time of day is also a limiting factor for severe development. Bottom line, there remains a severe threat across the area however it remains conditional on which if any round makes it into the area or if we just get stuck in between. This also impacts rainfall amounts as the latest HREF and NBM are highlighting a decreasing trend in rainfall amounts back into the 0.25 to locally 1 inch range. Currently the area to watch for locally heavy rainfall is areas southeast of Springfield where/if that activity moves up from OK/AR. Localized flooding could occur with this activity if its heavy enough. We will continue to monitor latest trends and update precip chance forecasts with incoming data.

Cooler Wednesday then dry/warm to end the week: Cold air advection is likely on Wednesday behind the front with early morning highs then falling into the 50s during the day with gusty northwest winds. Dry northwest flow then develops Thursday through Saturday with highs slowly climbing each day. Temps will likely climb back into the 70s Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions are expected.

Pattern Change Late Weekend: Ensembles continue to suggest that a batch of cold air will drop into the northern and potentially central US by late weekend into early next week. This could send below normal temps to the area with our next chance for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

There will be some passing low level cumulus this afternoon with MVFR ceilings at times for BBG. Clouds will increase overnight into Tuesday morning however VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will be gusty this afternoon out of the southwest with gusts approaching 30kts at times. Winds will decrease tonight with an increase again on Tuesday. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites Tuesday morning. The chance of rain remains below 30 percent through the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 9: KSGF: 81/1974 KJLN: 81/2017 KVIH: 78/1974

March 10: KSGF: 80/1955 KJLN: 82/1972 KVIH: 85/1955 KUNO: 82/1995

March 14: KSGF: 82/1971 KJLN: 80/2002

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.