textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area today, with heat index values around 100 to 105.

- Scattered showers and storms will occur across portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-90%) will then increase from north to south this evening/tonight into Thursday.

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this evening/tonight and again across south central Missouri on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected, with the greatest amounts from southeast Kansas into Central Missouri.

- Heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s Saturday into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Overview: Currently there is a stalled front from the northern CWA to the eastern CWA with a couple clusters of thunderstorms along it. Expect clusters of marginally strong to possibly briefly severe storms to move along this front into the evening. In the meantime, a more prominent cold front northwest of the CWA will slowly sink into the northwestern CWA late this evening into tonight, leading to a minimal risk of strong to severe storms and a greater potential for 1-3 inches, with locally up to around 5 inches, of rain northwest of I-44. The front then pushes southeast on Thursday, with a similar marginal severe risk over south-central MO Thursday afternoon/evening. Locations along and south of I-44 are forecast to see lesser rainfall amounts of 0.25 to locally 1 inch.

The specific severe threats through Thursday are mainly for a localized 60 mph wind threat and possibly 1 inch hail. Diurnal MLCAPE values are expected to be around 1,500-2,500 J/kg and nocturnal values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg, combined with weak shear (generally < 20 kts) and marginal mid-level lapse rates in the marginal severe risk areas. Future shifts will need to monitor model trends to see if a short fuse flood watch is needed for the northwestern CWA, but with 25 hour HREF and REFS PMM values generally near or less than 6 hour FFG and later and northerly model trends, decided not to issue a watch at this time.

Look for highs Thursday from the upper 70s over central MO to the upper 80s to lower 90s along the AR border.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s Friday through the weekend. A few isolated shower/storms will be possible on Friday across portions of southern Missouri but most locations will likely remain dry.

The ensemble model members show an upper level ridge over the plains. There will be the potential for storms to develop across the central Plains and move southeast into portions of the area later Saturday into Sunday. There are still questions on where the storms develop and then how they track with this system. At this time the better potential will be to the north with chances decreasing to the south into southern Missouri. There could be some locally heavy rainfall if this activity is able to move through portions of the area.

Heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s are expected Saturday into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR ceilings for now until the front moves closer to the area overnight. Thunderstorms will be possible overnight with a lower cloud deck expecting to bring MVFR ceilings by Thursday morning. Rain ends by late morning and VFR ceilings return by the afternoon. Winds are out of the southwest and gusting up to 20 mph especially further west near the Kansas and Missouri state line where the convection is currently. Winds turn easterly before 12z Thursday and turn northerly by 15z as the front pushes its way through.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.