textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning along a corridor roughly from the Oklahoma border to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat Index values around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this area. A Heat Advisory is also in effect for locations farther south and east through the same timeframe with daily Heat Index values expected to be around 100. - Rain chances return Wednesday through Saturday (15-30%) especially north of Interstate 44, however confidence remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The upper-level pattern across the country today is fairly zonal. There is weak upper troughing across the Great Lakes with ridging deepening with a high pressure center over the Desert Southwest. This ridging will slowly build into the area over the next several days, locking us into a pattern characterized by south-southwesterly flow and rising heights. Precipitation will be suppressed, and WAA will be maximized. Heat Index values 100-105+ are expected for several days. For these reasons, the previous Extreme Heat Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning beginning at noon today and lasting through Wednesday evening (for now). This covers an area from roughly the Oklahoma border to the Lake of the Ozarks and areas northwest. The rest of the CWA has been placed under a Heat Advisory, valid for the same time period (for now. Extensions/upgrades may be needed.)

With NBM interquartile spreads of only 3-4 degrees, it is safe to say that highs today will warm into the mid-90s in the east up to around 100 along the Kansas border. With dewpoints in the upper 60s, Heat Index values are projected to exceed 100 for most of the area. Some locations within the Extreme Heat Warning will approach 110. It will be mostly sunny throughout the afternoon with no precipitation expected. Thankfully, the southerly breeze up to about 15 mph will keep things from feeling too stuffy, though it is streaming more warmth into the area.

Though we will have clear skies tonight, WAA advection doesn't let up much, and it will be hard to completely recover from the intense heat of the day. Lows barely drop below 80 for the Warning area, with temperatures cooling into the low and middle 70s for the rest of the area. These warm overnight lows are a contributing factor in our decision to issue heat headlines, as the lack of relief from the heat overnight will result in a prolonged period of danger in addition to the daytime Heat Index values themselves.

The pattern holds through tomorrow, increasing high temperatures a couple of degrees from today. As is typical when dominated by high pressure, Monday will be much the same in terms of sensible weather. Mostly sunny, similar wind speed and direction, hot. Low temperatures will also be a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

You're going to be shocked at this, but Tuesday is also looking dry and hot with southwesterly flow. Confidence in the heat is still pretty good with interquartile spreads of about 5 degrees (mid 90s to 100 degrees).

Shortwave energy will be riding over the ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could bring some isolated showers in south-central Missouri throughout the day. Despite the introduction of a little cloud cover, Wednesday looks to be the hottest day this week. Southwesterly flow will be perfectly poised to advect in the warmest airmass possible. Highs will soar to near 100 for most, with only those in the lower elevations out east remaining in the mid 90s. Heat Index values will approach 110 for much of the area.

The ridge appears to start breaking down Wednesday night. Global models show more shortwave energy moving into the region and surface low pressure centers/fronts beginning to take over, at least across northern and central Missouri. As it stands, most of the precipitation potential remains north of our area. Much like last week, the surface front looks to stall to our north rather than truly pass through, allowing hot conditions to persist particularly for the south and west. There will definitely be a noticeable cooldown Thursday through late week for those generally west of 65, but Heat Index values will still be near 100. Locations along the southern and western Missouri borders in particular may need heat headline extensions beyond Wednesday.

The CPC still expects Extreme Heat risk headed into the 8-14 day period, so summer is definitely still in full swing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. South-southwesterly winds will continue to be breezy, with gusts up to 20-30kts especially impacting KJLN. Winds should slightly diminish further into this evening, however gusts up to 20kts will still be possible at KJLN, with sustained winds up to 12kts through the remainder of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058- 066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083- 090>092-095>098-102>106.