textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries possible through the afternoon and again on Sunday.

- Overnight wind chills are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero tonight and Sunday night.

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday with some patchy areas approaching red flag criteria for a brief time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: water vapor continues to show a high amplitude ridge axis along the west coast and a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes region into Texas. Shortwave energy continues to cycle through the trough region with periodic cloud cover and rounds of snow flurries. This trend will continue through the afternoon. Surface temperatures have risen into the low 30s over our southern CWA which has had some sunshine, but were still in the upper teens to low 20s in central MO which had more cloud cover and snow flurries.

Rest of today and tonight: The upper trough axis will continue to push southeast through the area today into this evening. Wind gusts should continue until around sunset. Cloud cover and scattered flurries should end this evening and the winds should diminish as well. Surface high pressure and dry air will be over the area tonight and we'll see temperatures dip into the single digits to lower teens. Wind chills will dip into the single digits above and below zero.

Sunday: Northwest flow aloft will remain active and the next shortwave will push into the area. Do have some flurries/sprinkles in for our northeast CWA where the upper energy will have the most impact in our CWA. Ahead of the next shortwave and surface front, we'll see southwesterly winds begin to ramp up with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. A dry air mass will be in place over the area with humidity levels dipping into the upper teens to mid 20s. There will generally be a 2 to 3 hour window where we could approach/exceed red flag conditions in patchy areas along and northwest of the I-44 corridor. High temperatures should reach the low to mid 40s for all but the eastern CWA which may only get to the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Another cold front will then move through the area late Sunday into Sunday night with temperatures dropping back into the teens across the area and wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. The center of the surface high will then be over the area on Monday with temperatures likely to remain below freezing in the mid to upper 20s for highs.

We'll remain in northwest flow through much of the week with another shortwave and surface front to move through the area by the middle of the week. Precipitation chances look slim to none at this point.

Outside of the long term period next weekend: the upper pattern begins to transition to a more zonal pattern which could lead to some precipitation next weekend. Deterministic models seem to be outliers within the ensemble data with a WIDE variety of solutions for just about every variable that still need to get resolved.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

For the 18z TAFS, gusty winds have started to develop across the area including the TAF sites with gusts up to 30 kts possible during the afternoon out of the west to northwest. Clouds should start to increase, but should remain in VFR. Can't rule out some flurries with the increased cloud cover. Winds should diminish tonight and become more southwesterly on Sunday and gusty by around mid to late morning again.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.