textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Coolest conditions of the season so far, with lows in the 20s to lower 30s through Monday night.

- Warming trend this weekend through next week, with highs topping out near 70 F by the end of the work week. 15-25% chance of rain Thursday and Friday when temperatures peak.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Current water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis shows upstream portion of a very meridional wave pattern over our region with northerly flow aloft. A second positively-tilted trough axis is currently digging well into the the southern CONUS, beginning up near Alaska. In between the two features, a narrow but amplified ridge axis stretches across the Plains states. Jet and wave dynamics from the deep trough over the eastern CONUS is placing an elongated surface high pressure system from Minnesota, down through the Ozarks, and into Louisiana. This has brought calm winds, mostly clear skies save for some high cirrus, and the coolest air mass we have seen this fall so far.

Lows in the 20s to lower 30s through Monday night:

The cold air mass paired with high pressure leading to clear skies and calm winds are on track to bring lows this morning into a balmy lower to middle 20s range. Low terrain in the eastern Ozarks could see temperatures in the upper teens.

While daytime temperatures will actually be seasonable in the 50s through Monday, longwave northerly flow will hold on for the entire period, keeping the surface high pressure system rather static. This should keep calm winds across the area, dropping lows into the 20s each night through Monday night.

Very low chance for light rain in far SW corner of Missouri:

The aforementioned digging trough into the southern CONUS is forecast to continue sliding SW of the area. A surface low pressure system is forecast to develop with this wave, however, persistent dry air and surface high pressure across our region will push back on the low pressure system, largely keeping any precipitation out of our area. Only a few CAMs and global models bring any semblance of rain into our the far SW corner of Missouri. The max rainfall of any model falls between 0.01-0.05 inches within McDonald County, speaking to very low (<15% chance) of rain in that area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Warming trend through next week, topping out near 70 F:

Once the aforementioned trough slides to our south and southeast, global ensembles depict the center of a pronounced ridge axis overspreading our region. This will act to warm temperatures back to above normal through next week. High temperatures are expected to begin in the middle to upper 50s on Monday, topping out around 70 F by Friday. Lows are also forecast to escape the twenties, starting in the 30s Tuesday, and increasing to the upper 40s to middle 50s by Friday night.

The NBM temperature spreads on this warming trend are very small and narrow, lending high confidence in the temperature forecast.

Timing uncertainties in next system, earliest arrival Thursday:

Confidence begins to breakdown as the trough on the other side of the pronounced ridge shifts its way toward our region at the end of the work week. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts very large timing differences in the longwave pattern, with greater differences in shortwave evolutions embedded within the flow. Depending on how quickly the longwave trough pushes east, a system may bring rain to the area Thursday and Friday. Though again, timing differences lead to only a 15-25% chance of rain as up to 75% of ensemble members keep us completely dry.

Interesting to note with this system, the deterministic GFS keeps us dry despite model parameters suggesting synoptic lift within a ribbon of sufficient moisture over our area. It's hard to believe no rain would come of that. The ENS and AIFS have been a bit more bullish on at least a bit of rain with any system during the Thursday and Friday timeframe.

Either way, the mean and interquartile solution places the longwave axis being close enough to our area by next weekend for better rain chances. But at this point, the exact placement, shape, and amplitude of any shortwaves are highly erratic in ensemble members, owing very little confidence in anything more than a pattern beginning to favor rainfall. Indeed, the CPC places us in a 50-60% chance for above normal precipitation between November 19-23 as that longwave inches closer to us, placing us under southwesterly flow and associated moisture advection. Trends will continue to be monitored on what that exactly means for the Ozarks.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for the entire 12Z TAF period, with 3-8 kt southeasterly winds and SCT to BKN high clouds.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.