textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon. Additional storms will develop along the front, mainly along and southeast of I-44. Strong to severe storms will occur again with hail and isolated damaging winds gusts the main risks.

- A band of heavy rainfall will be possible southeast of I-44 today into Thursday morning, and could lead to localized flooding where locations receive the heaviest rain.

- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be be possible from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There will the potential for hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds and a tornado risk with this activity.

- Another system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms on Tuesday of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Split flow continues aloft with two evident circulations one over the central plains and the next entering the west coast. A surface front was bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast. A band of showers and thunderstorms continue to shift northeast along and ahead of this boundary. Most of this activity has remained sub-severe although we had some elevated hailers producing just over quarter size hail earlier in the morning. The only area which has not received any precipitation yet has been in our far southeast CWA and is the only location that has any surface based CAPE currently. We still do have some elevated CAPE extending further back into the CWA and can't rule out some small hail with some of the larger updrafts. Temperatures were ranging from the low 70s where the rain has not occurred yet(mainly in Howell, Shannon and Oregon counties) and upper 40s to low 50s over much of the remainder of the area.

Rest of the afternoon and this evening: Convection extends southwest into central OK and the next area of showers/thunderstorms will move into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. HREF progs have the best chances of severe thunderstorms in those counties which have not had any rainfall yet where CAPES >500 j/kg and 0-6km shear >30 kts coexist with greater than 50% probability. Elevated instability will remain in place behind the surface instability with the main upper wave moving into the area tonight. Scattered convection will remain likely for much of the area and can't rule out some elevated hailers behind the main front. The better chances for large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado though will be over our far southeast counties. The current area of heavy rain which is southeast of the I-44 corridor will also be the focus for the heavy rain potential during the afternoon and evening.

Overnight, the convection will continue over the eastern Ozarks ahead of the main upper wave. This activity may linger into early Thursday morning before exiting completely out of the CWA. Severe chances should diminish during the overnight hours, although some elevated instability remains.

Thursday-Thursday night: The surface front will not make it too far south of the area and should move back to the north as a warm front on Thursday with highs back in the 70s for most of the area. The upper low will begin to dig over the 4 corners region and eventually cutoff with deep southwesterly flow aloft developing over the central and southern plains into the mid and upper Mississippi valley. A strong low level jet will develop over the plains with severe weather developing in the southern into central plains.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

By late Friday into Friday night, strong jet energy and increased instability ahead of another surface cold front will initiate strong to severe storms over the eastern central and southern plains into the MS valley including our CWA. It looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible with this system in addition to the chance of heavy rain and localized flooding.

This system should move through for most of the upcoming weekend to remain dry, however the cutoff low will eventually begin to lift out and track east with another round of potentially strong to severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 535 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Confidence is high that showers and isolated thunderstorms will redevelop over the area tonight, with the highest chances at SGF and BBG. Ceilings at BBG and SGF will likely remain at IFR/LIFR through the night with fog forming as well. JLN is a little less certain however should see gradual drop back into IFR overnight. Winds will remain light out of the west to west northwest at SGF and JLN. BBG will start out with southerly winds with a turn to the northwest overnight. Rain will move out Thursday morning however IFR conditions will likely persist through at least 18z with gradual improvement in the afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.