textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend incoming with highs in the 70s and 80s for the weekend. - Chance for thunderstorms (40-70%) Friday afternoon/evening. SPC Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 out of 5) with large hail the main hazard.

- Another chance for thunderstorms (40-70%) returns Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thunderstorm severity remains in question.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

High pressure over the area has brought us clear skies, calm winds, and a cool night. Lows have dropped into the 40s across the area with the potential of patchy frost formation in low- lying areas.

Today will be another pleasant day with sunny skies and breezy southwesterly winds. Highs will be a bit warmer today as we top out in the mid 60s. Moisture builds back into the area later tonight and clouds will slowly build in from the north. This will keep the areas near central MO a bit warmer in the 50s and areas south towards the bootheel will bin the 40s again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

We are still expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms on Friday starting in the afternoon with a few storms lingering into the early evening hours. SPC kept most of our area in a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather on Friday as of this morning's update. The widespread risk for severe weather still looks low. The forcing from the front paired with the environment in place as it comes through, will only be conducive for isolated severe storms. These storms are expected to be elevated which means hail up to quarters and damaging wind gusts near 60 mph will be the primary threats. As for the environment, models are showing lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/kg, MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear near 30 kts, which all leads to a marginal threat for severe weather. As for rainfall, this front could move through rather quickly and only drop <0.5" of rain. Overall, there is potential for low-end severe storms to occur, especially west of Hwy 65, but we are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time. Storms will decrease in severity as they push east across the state as the environment becomes less favorable.

Next round of thunderstorms is forecast to move through Saturday night into Sunday with the next frontal passage. SPC has outlooked far SW MO in a general thunder outlook. Again, some of the machine learning outlooks have our western counties outlined for severe weather potential. Though, the area that has the better set up for severe weather seems to be further to our west over in KS/OK. We'll have to see how the strength and timing of the front unfolds because we could very well miss out on most of the severe weather on Saturday night. Either way, we will receive more rain for most of the area. Locations west of Hwy 65 have the best chance of seeing rain and getting the higher rainfall totals near 0.50".

Monday will be dry with surface high pressure moving in, but a low chance (15-25%) of thunderstorms returns on Tuesday with another frontal passage and then again on Wednesday evening with 15-20% chance of thunderstorms. These are low-end chances for rain and will likely change as we get closer to next week. Highs will be warm as we hit the mid 70s for Monday and 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period at all sites with only a SCT 5000-7000 ft cu field until 01Z and souhtwesterly winds at 8-12 kts. Winds shift more southerly between 01-14Z before shifting back southwesterly with increasing high clouds and speeds at 13-18 kts with gusts up to 20-30 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.