textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal to slight risk for severe storms this evening and night. The highest chances for severe storms are along and northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri Line. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with a line of thunderstorms.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Analysis:

The Missouri Ozarks is currently under southwesterly flow aloft as an upper level closed Low over the northern Plains continues to make its way east/northeast towards the Great Lakes region. As a result, low to mid level clouds have increased over the area with cloud bases generally down to/around 3000-4500 feet. As the afternoon progresses, we may see a few brief breaks in the clouds, however they're expected to continue to generally increase as the system approaches the area even further. Warm, moist air has been advected into the region, with temperature observations so far (as of 1PM) ranging in the 70s. Temps should continue to increase slightly for locations that haven't reached peak heating, with highs maxing out in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Gusty Winds Today:

With the upper level trough pushing through the central CONUS today, a tightened pressure gradient has led to gusty southerly winds already today, which is expected to continue through at least tonight. Observations across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours have shown sustained winds between 10-15mph gusting up to 25-35mph (and sporadic gusts up to 40mph) primarily along/west of Highway 65 (with the higher observed gusts west of I-49). NBM probabilities of wind gusts >30mph show high probabilities (70-90%) for areas west of Highway 65 through 6PM before winds begin to diminish below 20-25mph. Regarding higher gusts, probabilities of gusts >=40mph remain at 30-40% until 2-3pm before probabilities drop below 15%.

Slight Risk for Severe Weather:

As the upper level system continues to trek towards the Great Lakes region, an associated surface low currently situated over Southeast NE/northwest MO will drag a cold front through the area later this evening into the overnight hours, bringing strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. There's three differing situations with varying confidence levels outlined below:

Low Confidence Scenario #1: CAMs have been fairly consistent with showers/thunderstorms developing out ahead of the front. There remains the question of what storm mode these will be. Current thinking is that they'll just pose a sub-severe to marginally severe risk, with hail up to quarters, brief gusts up to 60mph, and frequent lightning as the highest-potential hazards. However, there's a low- end chance that these could take a supercellular mode, which would lead to more of the large hail potential (up to 2 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes to be possible. This is the less likely scenario, but it at least deserved a mention.

Low Confidence Scenario #2: Another low confidence scenario takes storm initiation outside of our area into account. Further northwest near the surface low, storms are expected to develop, with scattered storms developing along the warm front to our north. This would bring the potential for a few supercells to develop to our north over northern MO/southern IA. The low confidence scenario would be supercells developing out ahead of the cold front before congealing together to form the line segment. Looking at forecast soundings, there's sufficient CAPE (SBCAPE >1500 J/kg) decent shear (0-1km shear ~35kts; 0-6km shear: 30-40kts), mid-level lapse rates >7.0 C/km, and a backing wind profile. Regarding the wind profile, if there were more of a southeasterly surface wind component that may contribute to slightly higher confidence in this scenario. But regardless, if this scenario comes to fruition, the supercellular storm mode would bring the potential for large hail up to 2 inches and a few tornadoes for areas generally northwest of I-44 and west of Highway 65. The SPC late-morning update highlighted this potential by extending the hatched hail risk further to the southwest. Again, this is another less- likely scenario.

Higher Confidence Scenario: The more likely scenario is the main area of strong to severe thunderstorms focusing on the line that pushes through along the cold front later this evening and overnight. With the ample shear in the atmosphere leading to potential bowing segments, damaging wind gusts up to 60-70mph look to be the primary hazard, with small hail (generally below severe limits, but isolated up to quarter size) and frequent lightning. With the 0-3km shear between 30-35kts vectorized towards the northeast, there's also the potential for quick spin-up tornadoes within the line. Timing for this line looks to push into our northwest counties no earlier than 6pm (between 6-8pm), pushing east/southeast before exiting our southeast counties by sunrise.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential:

As the previous discussion mentioned, flooding isn't a huge concern with this activity, as the line is expected to push through fairly progressively. That being said, WPC has outlined a large portion of our area (generally west of Highway 63) in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Flow will be nearly parallel to the front, which could pose a risk of localized training and hence, localized flooding. Comparing the 12Z HREF LPMM run to the previous 00Z run, rainfall amounts have decreased, with widespread rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 1.0 inches, and localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches (the previous run had localized amounts of 2-3 inches - so a slight decrease in amounts).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Cooler Temperatures and Frost Potential:

Behind the cold front that pushes through later this evening/tonight, winds will shift out of the northwest (with northwesterly flow aloft) and usher in much cooler temperatures to the area. The interquartile spread shows only a 4-degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles on Saturday, leading to fairly good confidence in afternoon highs ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. This would be near to below normal for this time of year, as the normal highs range between 64-66 degrees at our four climate sites. These more seasonable temperatures will continue into next week, with daily highs in the 60s, reaching the low 70s over south/southwest MO early next week.

Overnight lows are expected to dip down into the mid to upper 30s Saturday night through Monday night. Coupled with light overnight winds, this will lead to the potential for frost development, especially in the typical cold valleys/eastern Ozarks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Gusty southerly winds will continue to gust up to 25-35kts before diminishing down to 20-25kts around 00Z, and further below 10kts after 06Z. A cold front will push through the area tonight, dropping Cigs/Vis to MVFR conditions at all three terminals and likely bringing a line of thunderstorms (some strong to severe) from west to east after 00Z. There's the potential for some scattered thunderstorms to develop near KSGF/KBBG this afternoon, however the lower confidence in coverage resulted in a PROB30 group for this potential.

Behind the front, winds will shift out of the northwest for the remainder of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.