textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler but still above-average temperatures likely through the end of the week.

- Rain chances return late this week. The best chances for widespread rain will be Friday night into Saturday.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation into mid-February.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level shortwave passed through the region this morning, leaving the Missouri Ozarks under a quasi-zonal/broad ridging pattern aloft. At the surface, a warm front continues to lift through Missouri as southerly winds fuel substantial warm air advection.

Near Daily Record Warmth Today:

Temperatures continue to track near some daily record highs today. Whether individual records are broken or not, these temperatures are anomalously warm--around 25 degrees above average. See the Climate section below for specific details.

Cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday:

A cold front will move southeast through the area Tuesday morning, though the relative coldest air looks to lag behind the surface front and arrive with the 850 mb front. This delay will allow temperatures to still warm well above average Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will remain limited across the Ozarks on Tuesday, and the passage of the cold front will largely remain dry. However, a few CAMs do want to develop some very light showers or sprinkles across extreme south-central Missouri Tuesday night as the strong lift encounters better moisture, though confidence in any precipitation being realized in our forecast area is low.

Temperatures will be cooler still on Wednesday though still above average. Look for highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees areawide.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Rain Chances Late this Week into the Weekend:

Global models show a weak mid- level shortwave transiting the ridge Thursday into Friday. Jet dynamics will support modest lift, and moisture return may intrude far enough north to produce some scattered showers across central Missouri on Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, grand ensemble clusters generally agree in digging a more prominent shortwave across the Pacific southwest late this week, with some members even closing off a low. As the wave approaches, southerly flow will increase moisture return across the Ozarks. Where ensembles disagree, however, is in the exact positioning of this system. The farther north solutions would place more of our area under the left exit region of the upper-level jet, therefore increasing lift and likely supporting more widespread rain. Conversely, a more southerly solution would keep the better moisture and lift south of our area. The ECMWF members tend to favor the more northerly solution, and indeed, the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails products depict an increased signal for QPF Friday into Saturday. With the more appreciable instability kept well south of the area, any severe risk looks limited. For what it's worth, all of the machine learning guidance keep the better severe probabilities across the southern Plains and Gulf states. Still a long ways to go until then, however, so we will simply have to monitor trends in the data to increase forecast confidence going forward. As of now, the highest precipitation chances are Friday night into Saturday.

Above-average to Near-average Temperatures Late Week:

The cooler temperatures (compared to earlier in the week) will continue through late week, though still look to largely remain above average with daily highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees. It is possible some locations struggle to get out of the 40s on Friday and Saturday if cloud cover and rain are more prevalent, though these numbers are closer to the NBM 10th percentile.

Looking ahead, ensembles point toward another warmup next week with the return of much above-average temperatures. The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook depicts 60 to 70% chances for above-average temperatures in the Feb 16th-22nd period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much if not all of the TAF period. Clear skies and southerly winds will prevail through the afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through southern Missouri Tuesday morning and shift winds to the north. Some low-level clouds may develop along that front, but confidence in coverage was not high enough to include reduced flight categories in the current TAFs.

CLIMATE

Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 9: KSGF: 76/1932 KJLN: 73/2000 KVIH: 69/2000 KUNO: 73/1954

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.