textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures today through early next week.

- Dry weather will persist through at least Monday afternoon.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation in the Feb 12th to 18th period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 128 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level low centered over southern portions of Hudson Bay north of Ontario Canada. West of this, a high amplitude ridge axis extended from Mexico into the northern Rockies and well into British Columbia, Canada. West of the ridge, and upper level wave was off the coast of California. Strong northwesterly flow was occurring east of the ridge axis from the northern plains into the southeast U.S. International Falls, MN 300mb wind speeds were 135kts at 00z associated with the jet streak diving into the upper Mississippi valley into the upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, we've had a warm front move through and temperatures have actually risen or steadied the past couple of hours. While our winds have decoupled during the evening, we do have some 30-40kts a few thousand feet up.

Today: Forecast soundings are indicating some wind gusts should start to occur by mid to late morning as we begin to mix down those higher winds again with some gusts up to 30 mph possible. A cold front should then move through from mid morning through around midday with winds becoming more northerly and remaining gusty through the afternoon. The warmer than normal temperatures will continue today with highs from the low 50s in the north which will have the front move through first to near 60 in the south.

Tonight: Winds should diminish by around 6 pm as we lose the mixing and high pressure begins to move over the region behind the front. A cooler air mass will bring temperatures to more seasonal readings overnight in the low to mid 20s out east to the mid to upper 20s out west. Some eastern valleys may dip into the teens.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 128 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Much warmer than normal temperatures build back into the area: Starting Saturday, we'll see the upper ridge begin to shift east into the area with rising upper heights. Low level warm advection will coincide with this and global ensemble temperatures are averaging 850mb temperatures around 10-12 degrees by late in the weekend into early next week. SPC upper level climatology for 850mb temperatures this time of year would put these values above the 90th percentile. Local climatology comparing 850mb and 925mb temperatures with high temperatures suggest that mid 60s to low 70s would fit the expected global ensemble readings and that matches what the NBM is putting out for Sunday-Monday. NBM is showing a 25th-75th percentile range from 67 to 73 degrees and a forecast of 71 for SGF on Monday which seems reasonable.

Next rain chances: Global ensembles have some timing differences with the ENS having the closed low on a slower pace to track east over the southern plains and eventually over the lower Misssissippi valley, while the GEFS/GEPS are quicker. Preferring the slower solution at this time. Most of the upper energy will remain south of our forecast area, but we do have a surface front that begins to push through the area on Tuesday which would be the main source of precipitation chances.

With more cloud cover on Tuesday, temperatures will likely be slightly cooler than moday across the area, but still well above climatology for this time of year with readings in the 60s. Behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday, slightly cooler air will move in with highs returning to the 50s (still above normal).

Days 8 to 14 temperatures: Global ensembles continue to show temperature anomolies of 6 to 7 degrees above normal(six-seven). So it looks like our warmer than normal temperatures will persist into week 2.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

For the first few hours of the 12z TAFS, some low level wind shear of 30 to 45 kts will be possible in the lower 2000 feet. As mixing starts up by 15-16z, we should start to see some gusty winds up to 25 kts reach the surface and should linger through the afternoon. Light and variable winds will then develop after 00z. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.