textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk for severe weather across most of the area this afternoon through Saturday. Severe storms may occur at anytime during this period. Hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized flash flooding.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Saturday. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over areas already saturated brings a Slight to Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding. Additional localized rainfall amounts of up to 3-5 inches are possible.

- Relatively drier with near-normal temperatures next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An analysis of current conditions once again places complex features across the region. An expansive band of cloud cover is currently stretching along and just north of the I-44 corridor along the leading edge of a subtle MCV wave embedded within the more distinct mid-level trough in eastern Nebraska. Lift associated with this wave has forced a few light showers along the wave. A thermal boundary is placed over northern Kansas and northern Missouri, which has started dropping south this afternoon. These features will be the focus for storms today through Saturday.

Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon through Saturday:

Ahead of the aforementioned leading edge of the MCV wave (generally southeast of I-44, especially in the eastern Ozarks), clear skies have allowed temperatures to reach the upper 80s and lower 90s with dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s. This is resulting in 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE. Lift along the wave as it moves into this region may fire some scattered thunderstorms after 4-5 PM this afternoon (15-40% chance). Since shear is weak in this region, any development would be scattered. On the other hand, 700 mb temps are a bit high (-10 C) which is providing some capping to the environment. Therefore, development may be stunted a bit if peak heating does not overlap with peak lift. That said, any development would be capable of 60-70 mph microbursts since low- level lapse rates are somewhat steep at 7-8 C/km, thermo profiles are inverted-Vs in short-term forecast soundings, and microburst composite values in excess of 7. Additionally, our in-house Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index is highlighting values of 13-16 (moderate risk) for pulse severe thunderstorms. This activity would diminish after 8-9 PM as the sun disappears for the day.

Afterwards, the front in north Kansas and north Missouri will drop a bit south as the tail-end of the MCV wave/boundary lifts a bit back north. This will focus for new storm development along a strengthening LLJ nose later this evening (after 7 PM) along and north of I-44. Storm coverage will likely be greater along this front (40-75% chance). With that said, mean flow from west to east parallel to the boundary will mean storms will be along a somewhat narrow band and train. So if you see rain, you'll probably see a decent amount of rain. Severe storms will also be possible with these storms as the environment continues to consist of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE within a bit better sheared effective shear environment of around 30 kts. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will be the primary hazard, but a weak tornado or two and hail up to quarters are also possible.

The past few days, we've seen "unforeseen" strong thunderstorms lines move through during the morning. While model guidance suggests the greatest severe risk being this afternoon and evening instability and shear will remain through the entire night and into tomorrow morning, so any healthy storm will have the potential to be severe at anytime. Stay up with the forecast!

So that said, the front continues to drop south Saturday and will focus more thunderstorm development (potentially severe with excessive rainfall) during the day just north of the MO/AR border. The main mid-level wave will also be churning through eastern Missouri, which may spark some storms in the eastern Ozarks. However, greatest lift with the wave may be displaced from the best instability of the day, focusing the best severe chance in southern Missouri. Since the environment will not change much, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph continue to be the main hazard with any stronger storms.

Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Saturday:

Of additional concern is the flooding threat. A narrow band of heavy training thunderstorms occurred last night from Maries to Phelps to Dent, and into Reynolds/Iron Counties. This resulted in up to 6-12 inches of rain creating some significant flash flooding. Areas around this band of rainfall are under the gun again tonight with a reinvigoration of the LLJ overtop the sagging frontal boundary. As mentioned before, the thunderstorm development will be in a narrow band, which means this may not form over the same areas as last night. If it does, significant flash flooding is possible as the area will already be saturated. For that reason, this area (including Maries/Phelps/Dent Counties) has been upgraded to a Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding. If the band does not set up in that area, flash flooding will still be possible given a training signal with PWATs in excess of 1.8 inches leading to high rain rates. To account for the latest training signal, the Flood Watch has been expended northwest into west- central MO, with the time being extended to 7 PM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Relatively drier with near-normal temperatures next week:

An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s (lower 90s toward later in the week) and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. During this period, rain chances are much lower, but given a bit of northeasterly flow beneath the high will be present, some backdoor cold front action may spark a pulse-like few showers and thunderstorms each day during the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Current satellite and radar observations show light showers along a boundary moving west to east across Missouri. Some of these showers may impact SGF and JLN (30% chance), but visibility changes would be minimal in magnitude and timing.

Afterwards, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop somewhere across central Missouri. There is a 30% chance that the band develops in the vicinity of SGF and JLN, but there is higher confidence in drier weather in SGF. Therefore, only PROB30s are introduced at this time.

Otherwise, winds will generally be south-southwesterly at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times. A boundary will settle over the area which could bring winds to more calm and variable between 03-12Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ055>058-067>071- 080>083-092-097-098-106.