textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms expected Friday evening through early Saturday morning with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms along and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds of 70-80 mph and tornadoes will all be a concern, especially in the enhanced risk area. The most prominent/likely hazard for the event looks to be damaging winds.

- Thunderstorms should move into southeast Kansas and western Missouri as early as 4-6pm but more likely after 6pm. Storms will then move southeast and reach the Interstate 44 corridor by 9pm-12am. Storms should then move southeast of Interstate 44 after midnight, ending before sunrise Saturday.

- Flood Watch in effect Friday night for locations along and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with a few isolated amounts of 3-4 inches, especially closer to the Truman Lake region.

- Much cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Low temperatures in the low to middle 30s Saturday night could cause frost formation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis currently shows mid level ridging over the area which is leading to dry/tranquil conditions. The 00z sounding showed a capping inversion around 800mb however this cap was weaker further southwest in Oklahoma. The next shortwave that will impact us is currently moving into the Rockies. Abundant moisture continues to stream in from both the Gulf and the Pacific with current dewpoints already in the low to middle 60s. PW values across portions of Texas were in the 1.2-1.4in range and this will be advecting north towards into the area.

Low confidence - Isolated storm potential this morning into early afternoon: The upper level system will continue to sweep through the Rockies during the morning. Surface low pressure will strengthen across Iowa with a front stretching southwest across Kansas. Therefore we will remain in the warm sector through most of the day. As the mid level flow turns more southwesterly, this opens up the potential for a few isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop in the late morning or early afternoon hours. Looking at HREF members, only a few of them show anything developing with precip chances in the 20-40% range, mainly north of Springfield, closer to the low level jet. We will need to look closely at the 12z soundings to check on the capping inversion. IF something was to develop, there would be enough instability for a severe storm however confidence is very low in this occuring. Otherwise, it will be warm and breezy with highs in the low 80s and southerly wind gusts around 30mph, even with high clouds.

Main round of severe storms Friday Night: Much higher confidence that increasing upper level lift will force the development of severe thunderstorms along the front across Kansas and northwest Missouri by late in the afternoon. This area will likely have an overlap of significant instability (2000-3000j/kg of ML CAPE) an wind shear (0-6km shear around 50kts+). Initial supercells look likely before mergers and cold pools force the transition into a QLCS. Latest HREF guidance generally has a consensus that storms (potentially still supercellular) could move into our southeast Kansas and western Missouri counties as early as 4-6pm however most suggest after 6pm. This area will have significant severe potential with large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds of 70-80mph and tornadoes. If storms remain discrete, then there is potential for a strong tornado, mainly across the far northwest corner of the area.

There generally looks to be a transition through the mid to late evening hours as storms congeal into a QLCS across locations northwest of Interstate 44 and eventually the I-44 corridor itself. This would generally be in the 8pm-12am timeframe. The hail threat would generally begin to decrease down to the 1-1.5in range with the more likely concerns becoming damaging winds and brief tornadoes. The low level jet will increase during this time with mean 850mb winds around 50kts. This will increase the low level helicity. 0-3km shear vectors pointed east/northeast around 35-45kts and 0-3km CAPE of 50-100j/kg leads to a concern for brief QLCS tornadoes to form in any line surges. Bowing segments will also pose a damaging wind threat. Latest SPC outlook has 45-59% damaging wind probabilities across the Truman Lake and Lake of the Ozarks region (and points north). The highest chances for 70-80mph winds will be in this region.

After midnight, this line of storms will likely be moving southeast of Interstate 44 with a gradual weakening trend. That being said, still expecting the potential for damaging winds and a brief tornado even in this region as long as low level instability remains favorable. Confidence in severe storms certainly drops off southeast of I-44.

Looking at "limiting factors"/"failure modes" for the severe threat could be: 1.A later arrival of storms overnight which would lead to lower instability and a lower severe threat. 2. The front surges south too quickly during the day/evening with storms getting "undercut" by the front before storms get organized which would decrease the threat.

Flooding Potential tonight: There does appear to be a signal that storms may train over the same areas northwest of Interstate 44 (mainly during the supercell phase before the storms begin to accelerate southeast as a QLCS). Latest mean QPF from the HREF shows a corridor of 1-2 inches along and especially northwest of Interstate 44 with even a corridor of 3-4 inches across the Highway 54 corridor (especially closer to Truman Lake). Soils are fairly saturated and stream flows are elevated (or even in flood stage) from recent rainfall across that region. Therefore a Flood Watch will be in effect for this rainfall event for locations along and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor. There could be isolated instances of flooding further southeast however confidence is not as high and rainfall amounts have been less recently further south of I-44.

Additional severe weather and flooding forecast updates are likely before the event occurs later today/tonight. We ask everyone, especially those with outdoor plans, to remain weather aware tonight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Much Cooler and Dry Conditions: Northwest flow aloft will allow for much cooler and drier conditions to filter into the area for the rest of the weekend. Surface high pressure looks to slide close to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. If skies can clear and winds remain light, we could see some frost potential. Latest NBM shows a corridor of 40-60% probs of temps dropping below 36 degrees across the heart of the Ozark Plateau and eastern Ozarks. Those with agricultural interests will want to stay up on the forecast. A gradual warm up is expected next week with no significant systems through mid week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

FEW to SCT cumulus are expected amid gusty south-southwesterly winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts through 00Z. After 22-00Z, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to move west to east. There is still some uncertainty in how early the line arrives to each TAF location. TEMPOs are given for the earliest timeframe, while FM groups are given for the highest confidence start time. Either way, the primary hazards with this line of storms will be gusts up to 50 to 65 kts at JLN and SGF, becoming weaker once reaching BBG with peak gusts at 45-50 kts. Hail up to quarter size and a brief spin-up tornado will also be possible as a secondary hazards, but confidence of that threat being within a TAF site is low. As storms move through, CIGS should drop to MVFR, perhaps IFR at times.

Otherwise, a cold fropa will quickly occur after the line of storms, shifting winds to northwesterly by 04-06Z with speeds of 12-18 kts and gusts up to 20-30 kts. Skies should also clear, leaving VFR conditions by 08-12Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-093-094.