textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in well above average temperatures continuing today, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Potential for record highs. - Widespread 80-100% shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight into Wednesday morning with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts, with lower confidence in large hail and a tornado or two. Lower confidence in the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- Cooler behind the frontal passage mid-week, with a warming trend into next weekend accompanied by a drier stretch of weather through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances return on Sunday, with colder temperatures into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This Morning: Broad zonal flow is transitioning to southwesterly as an upper- level low builds out of Baja and northern Mexico. This wave of energy will be focus for active weather over the next 24 to 36 hours. Sufficient moisture continues to stream into the region ahead of this approaching system, with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Mild overnight lows have accompanied the warm air advection, with most locations in the upper 50s to lower 60s early this morning. As we progress through this morning, cloud cover will be on the increase, with temperatures remaining anomously warm.

This Afternoon: By this afternoon, gusty south-sothwest winds ramp back up over the area. Afternoon wind gusts approach 25 to 30 mph, with occasional stronger gusts west of Highway 65. Additionally, temperatures are expected to warm well into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon with substantial warm air aloft (850 mb temperatures around 16 to 18 C). This warm air aloft will aid in a stout capping inversion over the region within the warm sector of the impending system. There remains a potential for record highs this afternoon, as highlighted in the Climate Section. With a strong cap in place, most areas are expected to remain dry through the afternoon. This is a result of the absence of a lifting/forcing mechanism within the warm sector. This appears to be the storyline for most of the region through the afternoon. By the late afternoon and evening, expectations are for showers and thunderstorms to develop both north and south of the area in the vicinity of forcing mechanisms. This could very well leave our area in between rain free through the evening.

This Evening-Tonight: A complex scenario remains intact for this evening through tonight, with forcing to the north along a cold front and to the south along a dry line. HREF continues to highlight a favorable environment for organized thunderstorms, with ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and shear (0-6 km 30 to 40 knots) present. However, the strong capping inversion looks to inhibit development in our area. This brings us back around to the two areas of focus for thunderstorm development this evening, and the potential impacts for us. The first area of focus is to the north and west along the cold front. This front will trigger thunderstorm development across eastern Kansas in the late afternoon/early evening as depicted in the latest suite of CAMs. HREF paintball plots suggest this activity lifts east/northeast through the evening into tonight, perhaps clipping portions of the area. This would be along and north of a line from Fort Scott to Nevada to Osage Beach. Based on the latest guidance, confidence in this is low to medium, with the a potential shift north or south still plausible. Expected storm mode would be supercells to clusters/segments as it grows upscale. The primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, with secondary risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Meanwhile, the second area of focus along the dry line will need to be monitored. Much of the latest guidance suggests any activity that congeals off the dry line into eastern Oklahoma will remain south of the area. This would introduce the potential for thunderstorms to glance portions of southern Missouri, along the Missouri and Arkansas border, though confidence is low. These two focus areas for evening thunderstorm development occur during a window between 6pm to 12am. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) is in effect for the area to account for the severe potential, though overall confidence in our area realizing this potential is limited and conditional in nature.

Tonight-Wednesday Morning: As the main upper-level wave translate through the Plains, the cold front will begin to slide through the area into Wednesday morning. It appears the timing of this frontal passage may further work against the severe potential, with rather unimpressive CAM output along the passage.

While most areas should see at least some rain with the frontal passage sweeping through, confidence has decreased in the localized heavy rainfall/flooding potential. HREF PMM depicts a few strips of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rainfall, with most locations remaining under a half inch now. Will need to monitor closely for any training of thunderstorms, particularly across southern Missouri where antecedent conditions remain favorable for localized flooding.

Remainder of Wednesday: Behind the frontal passage, temperatures will gradually drop throughout the day with highs occurring earlier in the day. Most of the area will be in the lower 50s by the afternoon, with gusty northwest winds around 25 to 30 mph. Clearing clouds will give way to a cold night on Wednesday, with lows in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Thursday-Saturday: Northwest flow develops over the region as we progress into late this week and weekend. This will keep us drier across the region through at least Saturday. Additionally, subtle height rises nosing into the area will support a warming trend into Friday and Saturday, with highs returning to the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Sunday-Monday: The drier stretch of weather may be short-lived as precipitation chances return with a trough diving out of the Northern Plains. Ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement that a pattern change brings appreciable PoPs (30-60%) by Sunday with a cold front passage. Additionally, confidence is increasing that colder air lingers behind this frontal passage. This will support below average temperatures into early next week, with highs in the 40s on Monday. Furthermore, overnight lows look to drop well into the 20s. The NBM would suggest this cold shot is limited to a few days early next week. Continue to follow the forecast for updates over the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR flight conditions persist through tonight ahead of an approaching system. Southwest LLWS around 35 to 40 knots overnight, with increasing cloud cover. A brief period of MVFR ceilings around 3000 feet is progged to overspread the TAF sites through Tuesday morning, before improving to around 5000 feet ceilings in the afternoon. Meanwhile, gusty south-southwest winds are expected through the period. Wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots through Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances overspread the area by the late afternoon into the evening, as depicted with the PROB30 group after 00Z. MVFR to IFR flight conditions would accompany developing showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KSGF: 80/1955 KJLN: 82/1972 KVIH: 85/1955 KUNO: 82/1995

March 14: KSGF: 82/1971 KJLN: 80/2002

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.