textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Likely record-high temperatures today with temperatures around 30 degrees above climatological averages.

- Elevated to locally Significant fire danger today with hot, dry, and windy conditions. Additional Elevated fire danger through the upcoming weekend.

- Mostly light showers and a few thunderstorms move through the area tonight into Friday morning. Very low chance of an isolated strong storm capable of producing hail to quarters.

- Potential for additional rain chances and a more active weather pattern by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A prominent and well defined upper-level ridge was overspreading the western and central CONUS early this morning. Water vapor imagery also nicely reveals a compact shortwave ridge rider along the western periphery of this feature. To the north, several shortwave impulses over Canada are acting to flatten the ridge. At the surface, a cold front is draped across the northern Plains and extends into the Midwest.

Hot and Windy Today:

As the ridge shifts easts, anomalously warm air will continue to advect into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The 00Z SGF sounding showed 850 mb temperatures around 17 to 18 deg C, and these values will only continue to climb today with deterministic guidance suggesting 850 mb temperatures reaching between 18 to 21 deg C. This warmth will correlate to surface temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. With the frontal passage holding off until the overnight hours and little in the way of cloud cover, confidence in the temperature forecast is high, and all four climate sites will likely see their daily records broken today (see Climate section below). For reference, the climatological average highs range from 60 to 64 degrees.

As the aforementioned cold front approaches the Missouri Ozarks today, the surface pressure gradient will tighten, and southwest winds will increase. At the same time, an impressive 50 to 55 kt low-level jet will shift into eastern Kansas and western Missouri coincident with the onset of diurnal heating and vertical mixing. A hefty capping inversion will prevent mixing heights from getting notably high today, but it will not take much to mix down this higher momentum flow to the surface. Furthermore, an upward trend in winds from both deterministic guidance and model blends has been noted over the last 24 hours. Strong consideration was given to the issuance of a Wind Advisory for our westernmost Missouri and Kansas counties this afternoon, but confidence in gusts exceeding 45 mph was not quite high enough. That said, gusts of 40 to 45 mph are expected for this area. Elsewhere to the east, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common.

These hot and dry conditions will spark fire concerns across the region. Observations of RAWS site 10-hr fuel moisture between 7% and 10% along with ongoing wildfires and prescribed burns suggest fuels are still receptive to fire starts. That being said, continued gradual moisture advection will at least partially help to keep RH values from tanking below critical thresholds despite the anomalous warmth. Minimum afternoon humidities will generally range between 30% to 40% across the area. As a bit of a sanity check, the 10th percentile RHs from the REFS--a blend with a known dry bias--suggests values may approach 25% locally for an hour or two due to downsloping/diabatic warming effects, but these numbers look to be the exception rather than the rule. While humidities will stay above Red Flag Warning criteria for much and likely all of the forecast area, the hot and windy conditions will produce Elevated to locally Significant fire danger today.

Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight:

The aforementioned cold front will approach the region after 9 PM tonight and bring with it chances for widespread but mostly light rain. The previous forecast discussion did a wonderful job of thoroughly detailing why the Marginal severe risk was removed from our forecast area yesterday, but the Storm Prediction Center has pulled it back to the west and covers portions of central Missouri once again. Long story short, though, is that the better moisture, forcing, and instability will be well to the northeast of our area across the Ohio Valley. That being said, good mid- level lapse rates will result in elevated instability approaching 1000 J/kg, which will be enough for a few thunderstorms and possibly even some isolated hail. Confidence in this hail being realized is low. Otherwise, rainfall amounts will be light--ranging from a trace to a quarter inch--with localized amounts up to a half inch if under a stronger thunderstorm.

Cool and Breezy Friday:

Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front as it exits southern Missouri Friday morning. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s for much if not all of the area. These temperatures will be 30 to 35 degrees cooler than just 24 hours prior. Despite the cooler temperatures, Elevated to locally Significant fire conditions will continue as northerly winds gust to 30 to 35 mph and drier air filters in behind the front. This will be particularly true for areas that receive little rainfall Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The cooler temperatures on Friday will be short-lived as medium- range guidance shows consensus in the re-establishment of the upper-level ridge and a general warming trend this weekend into early next week. Furthermore, RHs are already progged to be quite low on Saturday with widespread afternoon minimums near 20%. And while moisture will be a bit better on Sunday, winds will be stronger. All of this to say that Elevated fire conditions will continue through the weekend.

Heading into the work week, NBM percentile data suggest medium to high confidence in high temperatures once again climbing into the the 80s by Monday. At the same time, ensemble clusters depict a breakdown of the ridge and the return of southwesterly flow aloft across the region by the middle of the week. This setup will open the door for more rain chances and a more active pattern overall.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are likely through much of the TAF period, but not without impacts. A low-level jet has been producing LLWS at the terminals early this morning. Then, southwesterly winds will increase late this morning into the afternoon. The strongest winds will be across far western Missouri, where gusts may approach 40 kt. Elsewhere to the east, gusts of 25 to 30 kt will be common.

A cold front will move through southern Missouri after 06Z, bringing with it widespread light showers and MVFR and IFR ceilings. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two, but these chances are highest across central Missouri, so no mention of lightning was put into the current TAFs for any of the terminals.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 26: KSGF: 82/2020 KJLN: 86/1910 KVIH: 83/2020 KUNO: 86/2020

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.