textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated Fire Danger for potentially erratic fire behavior is expected across portions of the area late this afternoon/evening and again Tuesday.

- Near-record breaking temperatures and breezy conditions are forecast again Tuesday.

- An active and wet weather pattern will exist Wednesday through Saturday with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Near-full insolation and low-level southerly/southwesterly flow with 850-hPa temperatures exceeding the 90th climatological percentile will allow temperatures this afternoon to flirt with daily records. Additionally, with deep boundary-layer mixing, RH values should continue falling to around 30 to 40 percent across southern and southeastern MO resulting supporting at least a few hours of Elevated Fire Danger through early evening with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds. The surface pressure gradient will remain tight tonight, preventing appreciable decoupling and cooling with low temperatures only reaching the low to mid-60s F, setting the stage for potentially breaking maximum low temperature records on Tuesday.

A similar airmass will remain in place for Tuesday, with the net effect of a warm start and periods of mid-level clouds limiting insolation resulting in high temperatures close to today and again threatening daily records. Some CAMs also indicate that these mid- level clouds could be associated with isolated showers and thunderstorms (above a capping inversion) during the morning into early afternoon, but weak forcing and a dry sub-cloud layer suggests that predominantly dry conditions will prevail. These factors also add some nuance to the RH forecast for Tuesday, which has implications for fire weather, given that breezy southerly to southwesterly winds are expected once again. That being said, confidence is still high in Elevated Fire Danger across most of the area during the afternoon, with much lower confidence in RH falling low enough to reach Red Flag Criteria (less than 25 percent) outside of sporadic instances.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mainly in the northern half of MO Tuesday night, a developing nocturnal LLJ and slow-moving cold front will lead to increasing showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty on whether or not these showers and thunderstorms actually reach the CWA since the capping inversion and low-level forcing will keep them on the front's cool (north) side and CAMs/short-term guidance is mixed on whether the front itself can manage to reach west-central and south- central MO counties before stalling and lifting back northward Wednesday morning. As a result, latest HREF probabilities of measurable rainfall have a very tight gradient in these areas, tapering quickly from 70 to 30 percent from north to south.

A more active and wetter weather pattern will become established Wednesday through Saturday as upper-level flow becomes increasingly southwesterly with several troughs ejected through the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. There is a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the structure, track, and amplitude of these troughs and associated movements of a front, but ensemble model guidance probabilities of showers and thunderstorms have maxima Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon into Saturday. These most favorable time periods for showers and thunderstorms will be refined as guidance comes in better alignment. This pattern also poses at least a low threat of strong to severe thunderstorms at times. More specifically, this threat comes as early as Wednesday evening across southeastern KS/southwestern MO with support for a line of thunderstorms to enter the area just before or during the early stages of weakening as they encounter lower instability and shear with time and eastward extent. Machine- learning and analog guidance also highlight Thursday and, moreso, Friday for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms, which bears watching going forward. Additionally, there is a threat of locally heavy rainfall through this time period, but confidence is low in sufficiently heavy rainfall for flash flooding since antecedent soil conditions are exceptionally dry. The threat would theoretically increase later in the week as deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture arrives and initial rounds of showers and thunderstorms have a chance to precondition soils for subsequent rounds. NBM probabilities of 1"+ total rainfall (through Saturday) are 60 to 90 percent across nearly the entire CWA, with 20 to 50 percent probabilities of 2"+ generally along/north of I-44.

With the wavering front and waves of clouds and precipitation, there is lower confidence in what exact temperatures will be Wednesday through Friday, but the entire NBM temperature distribution remains well-above average albeit slightly cooler than today and Tuesday. Due to variability in the passage of a stronger cold front on Saturday, that day has the largest uncertainty with NBM interquartile high temperature ranges spanning nearly 15 F. A seasonably cool airmass will at least briefly reside across the region behind the front through the rest of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A dry airmass remains in place over the Ozarks region which will allow for VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. However, strong southwesterly surface and middle level flow will continue to bring moisture into the region through tonight. This will bring some middle to high level cloud cover over the region.

The strong middle level flow will also bring a strong low level jet into the region which will produce some 40 to 50kt LLWS to the regions terminals after 02-03Z and into 13-14Z Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday March 31: KSGF: 87/1974 KVIH: 84/2010 KUNO: 85/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

Tuesday March 31: KSGF: 62/1967 KJLN: 65/1967 KVIH: 61/1967 KUNO: 58/1967

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.