textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions will occur through Monday night with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Warming trend through the coming week, with highs topping out near 70 F by the end of the work week.

- 10-20% chance for rain showers from Wednesday night into Thursday with 30-60% chances for rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from late Friday night into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

As foreshadowed by last night's forecast, not much has changed in the current synoptic conditions over our region, with a continued dry slot of northerlies. The main difference is that a positively-titled shortwave trough--with a rather flat jet streak--has dug into TX, forcing precipitation across Texas/Oklahoma. Watching infrared and water vapor satellite imagery loops shows that the northward venting cirrus from this system is clashing with the southward dropping cirrus from the dry northerlies. The dry air appears to be winning as each subsequent run of models has kept any precipitation trending further southwest of our area. Our balloon soundings continue to show a stout and deep layer of dry air above the surface, which has continued to keep dewpoints and relative humidity values below guidance each day. Lastly, a surface high pressure system is currently centered over the Missouri/Illinois border, keeping winds calm again tonight. A bit greater coverage in clouds, though, will keep temperatures this morning just slightly warmer than yesterday morning (lower 20s to lower 30s).

Seasonable daytime temps; cooler nighttime temps through Monday:

While nighttime/morning temperatures are forecast to be rather cold (20s and 30s) due to the weakening of winds, subtle mixing during the day with peaks of sunshine through transparent cirrus will keep highs today and Monday more seasonable in the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Warming trend through next week, topping out near 70 F by Friday:

Once the aforementioned trough slides to our south and east, global ensembles depict the center of a pronounced ridge axis overspreading our region. This will act to warm temperatures back to above normal through next week. High temperatures are expected to begin in the middle to upper 50s on Monday, topping out around 70 F by Friday. Lows are also forecast to escape the twenties, starting in the 30s Tuesday, and increasing to the upper 40s to middle 50s by Friday night.

The NBM temperature spreads on this warming trend are very small and narrow, lending high confidence in the temperature forecast.

Appreciable uncertainty remains for the next system(s):

Ensembles do prog a shortwave trough to impinge on this ridge Wednesday night and Thursday, but heights will only very marginally decrease over our area, with them quickly increasing in the wake of the trough axis. With this initial system, models have continued to trend much drier as the picture becomes a bit clearer in terms of surface front position. By the time associated cold front with the wave reaches our area, deformation and resulting frontolysis is progged to be over our area. This, paired with the max omega staying well north of our region, should keep any appreciable rain chances quite low for Wednesday night into Thursday (10-20% chance). Seeing how past systems have trended west/southwest of our area (as we are seeing now), likely due in large part to drier-than-forecast air in our area (probably due to intense drought and very low soil moisture), this seems to be the same sort of trend in this system.

The rain should come eventually, though! The first shortwave is only one of several within a longwave trough pattern slowly shifting across the west CONUS. It's only a matter of time before the southwest flow of the longwave fully impinges on the Ozarks, bringing decent chances of rain. That said, there is still appreciable uncertainty in the exact timing as ensemble member forecasts heavily diverge in the nature of shortwave position, shape, orientation, etc. into next weekend.

For example, one main ensemble cluster scenario depicts the wave quickly moving northeast. This would bring rain chances closer to Friday night and Saturday, but would bring lower rain totals as the main lift with the wave stays northwest of the area.

The other main ensemble cluster scenario depicts a deeper digging trough out west. This would slow the progression of the wave (pushing chances toward Saturday night and Sunday), but also provide more lift for greater rain totals.

Whether the rain comes as a quick frontal passage, or a series of waves, will depend on the exact progression and evolution of the longwave pattern, which as already mentioned, is highly uncertain at this point in time. Trends will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the entire 12Z TAF period with 3-8 kt southeasterly winds. SCT high clouds are expected to dissipate by 00Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.