textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this early evening across far southwestern MO, then again tonight into Wednesday morning generally west of Highway 65. The primary hazards would be damaging wind gusts and small hail.

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Damaging wind gusts and small hail will be the main risks.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances persist through Friday. An associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding risk will accompany each round. A Slight Risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding capture this potential tonight, Wednesday and Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and storms are currently moving east across northeastern Oklahoma early this afternoon. The better instability and weaker cap is currently in place across Oklahoma with instability weakening to the northeast into our area. Still some weak uncapped instability is spreading into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon and will remain into the early evening hour, but will weaken completely this evening. The showers and storms across northeastern Oklahoma should continue to move east into the southwestern portions of the area later this afternoon into early this evening, generally south of Highway 54 and west of Highway 65 between 4 and 8 PM today. Instability will weaken by late this evening and the activity should dissipate then. The severe risk is low as instability and shear are weaker across the area, but a strong storm could be possible across the far southwestern portions of the area with gusty winds and small hail possible with the strongest storm. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, but overall coverage in storms will start to dissipate as they move into the area, so widespread flooding is not expected this afternoon and evening.

MUCAPE will start to develop over the area again tonight into Wednesday morning while the cap weakens. An upper level disturbance will move southeast across the region tonight and as the cap weakens scattered showers and storms should start to develop across the area overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Coverage should be more scattered in nature to start, but it is possible a band of showers and storms develop and move southeast across the area if the cold pools from the storms can congeal late tonight into Wednesday morning. If this occurs, there would be a localized flooding risk where this band develops and training of storms occur. There could also be a few strong to severe storms tonight into Wednesday morning mainly along and west of Highway 65, with damaging winds and small hail the main risk.

Instability then weakens Wednesday afternoon, a few showers and rumbles of thunder could linger into the afternoon hours but most of the area will be dry Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability will start to increase from the west late Wednesday night, it is possible some showers and storms develop Wednesday night but overall coverage should remain limited.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Another upper level disturbance will move east across the Central Plains on Thursday and across the region on Thursday night. Instability will increase across the area ahead of the disturbance and a line of storms will likely develop across Kansas and move east into and across the region on Thursday, generally late morning Thursday into Thursday evening. The SPC has a Marginal (1 out of 5) to Slight (2 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Damaging winds will be the main risk but some small hail will also be possible with the strongest storms. The exact track of these storms will be dependent on where they develop, they are expected to move through the area, but the line could shift slightly to the north of south. Where the line is from north to south will be the best potential for damaging winds. A band of showers and storms will likely develop behind the storms and linger into Friday. Precipitable water values increase across the area Thursday evening and night, leading to a flooding risk where training of storms and develop and occur Thursday night and Friday. This training will be banned in nature should could be more localized than widespread, and where this sets up will be dependent on exactly where storms develop on Thursday into Friday.

The ensemble model members are then showing an upper level ridge building over the central U.S. this weekend and remaining over the region next week. This will support warmer temperatures and overall a drier pattern but there could still be daily scattered thunderstorm chances during peak heating.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MVFR ceilings are in place across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri early this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will continue early in the TAF period, then will start to gradually improve later this afternoon.

Showers and storms have developed across portions of Kansas and Oklahoma and will continue to move east this afternoon and evening. This activity will likely push into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri then start to weaken as the activity moves further east into the area later this afternoon into this evening. This activity could impact all the TAF sites, with KJLN having the best chances but some showers and a few rumbles of thunder may continue to the KSGF and KBBG sites before weaken completely. IFR to MVFR conditions will occur with any of the storms this afternoon and evening.

Additional scattered showers and storm develop will be possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning and could impact the TAF sites. IFR to MVFR ceilings will be possible with this activity.

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across the area again tonight into Wednesday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.