textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening, mainly in the southwest corner of Missouri/southern Kansas. Hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph winds are the primary threats.

- An extended stretch of active weather begins today, with daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of next week.

- Severe weather is expected Sunday through at least Wednesday, with all severe hazards possible.

- Potential also exists for flash flooding and river flooding in areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, especially as the week progresses and rainfall accumulations add up.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:

A quasi-stationary/stalled cold front extends eastward from a leeside low in southeast Colorado across Kansas and through central Missouri into the Northeast, located just north of our forecast area as of 230 AM. We are in southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front, with the 850/925mb pattern transitioning into ridging extending from the southeast CONUS into the Northern Plains. The LLJ (aided by nocturnal enhancement) is bisecting that ridge early this morning. As a closed low in the upper-levels pushes northeast and out of the lower Hudson Bay area, that ridge will expand across the central US, with an upper-level trough pushing into the West Coast that will keep flow progressive.

Friday: Temperatures will range from the upper 60s near the front in central Missouri to upper 70s along the Missouri/Arkansas border. Showers and storms along the front are transitioning from convective updrafts to more stratiform in nature as they progress south into our area due to waning instability. Stratiform lightning flashes may continue over the next 2-4 hours, bringing a few rumbles of thunder early this morning, but overall support for continued widespread convection will be spotty and storms will decrease in intensity and coverage as they continue moving southeast through the area through the morning hours.

However, morning convection may provide a sufficient enough cold pool to reinforce the front as it stalls over southern Missouri this afternoon. This will increase the available lift for afternoon thunderstorm redevelopment, with 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE available to tap into in the afternoon/early evening hours. Coverage will likely be limited, with redevelopment being scattered and focused along the front. Any strong storms that develop will be elevated, with hail to the size of quarters being the primary severe threat, though a damaging wind gust or two up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Highest severe threat and chance of strong thunderstorms will be focused in the southwest corner of Missouri through southern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma.

HREF LPMMs indicate that some pockets of rainfall accumulations up to 1-2.5" will be possible in the embedded areas of strongest convection. 3 hour flash flood guidance across the area is 2-3", so if these localized areas of increased precip accumulation materialize, a low risk of nuisance flooding/ponding will exist in those areas. Most areas, however, should expect between 0.1" and 0.75".

Saturday: Ridging develops ahead of the trough in the West, with southwesterly flow turning the stalled stationary front into a warm front that will lift back to the north on Saturday. Some warm sector showers and thunderstorms will be possible in association with synoptic lift, with 20-65% rain chances in the morning before instability/lift push north of our area. Highest rainfall chances will be in the northern/western portions of our area. While some thunder will be possible with these storms, conditions for severe weather are not expected to be favorable on Saturday.

Sunday: Sunday kicks off the more interesting portion of our forecast period after Saturday's relative lull. The trough out west makes it to the Plains, with southerly flow advecting dew points in the 60s ahead of the ejecting trough. There is still some uncertainty remaining in the speed of that trough movement, which will impact severe weather chances in the Ozarks. As of now, only the areas along and west of the I-49 corridor have a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather, but upstream conditions and convective development will impact the chances of severe in our area. Rainfall chances remain 35-90%, with accumulations up to 0.5" in the I-49 corridor and west.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Repeated shortwave ejections Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances, with a higher risk of severe weather under stronger south-southwesterly flow, instability, moisture, and synoptic lift. There is still a LOT of remaining uncertainty in the evolution of synoptic features, which will impact location, timing, hazards, and intensity of anticipated storms. However, instability will be more surface- based and shear will increase to above 30kts, which signals towards severe weather potential.

Monday has the most question marks as of now, with limited ensemble QPF values introducing questions about storm coverage and development as far east as our area. PoPs remain in the 20-35% range, reflecting high uncertainty in if storms even develop in our area. If a slower Euro-suggested solution materializes, severe weather and rainfall chances will be quite limited. Tuesday and Wednesday, PoPs increase to 25-55% and 45-65% respectively, with a more widespread coverage as a cold front advances east across the Plains.

One concern is the fact that repeated storm activity will potentially prime the environment by Tuesday and Wednesday, and PW values of 1.25-1.5" will provide a ripe environment for storms to tap into, both for severe activity and heavy rainfall potential. Repeated storms over the same locations could produce several rounds of heavy rainfall, and saturation from several days of measurable rain may produce river and flash flooding concerns by Wednesday. TBD, since green-up may help soils absorb this water more effectively, but still worth keeping an eye on.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Showers and storms are slowly pushing from central Missouri towards the Ozarks as a front sags south, and are expected to continue to push south and east through this morning, diminishing in coverage and intensity through the morning. This afternoon into early this evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in portions of far southwest Missouri into southern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Confidence is low in coverage of storms and the extent/timing of impacts to TAF sites, but confidence is high in scattered storms somewhere across the region this afternoon.

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will likely accompany precipitation with both rounds of storms, at least briefly. Winds shift from southerly early in the period to westerly early this afternoon, then rapidly becoming easterly behind the frontal passage this afternoon (~20-23Z).

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 11: KSGF: 84/1996 KUNO: 85/1965, 2019

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 12: KSGF: 63/1972 KJLN: 71/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 66/1972

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.