textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- After a modest cooldown with highs in the 40s Saturday, dry conditions and above normal temperatures follow for Sunday through much of next week.

- A pattern change brings our next chance of widespread precipitation during the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows light rain and clouds clearing from our area from southwest to northeast. This is occurring as a compact shortwave and associated surface low pressure system quickly moves through the ArkLaTex region. This system has pulled down the stationary boundary from southern Missouri down into northern Arkansas. This, along with cloud cover, has kept temperatures a bit cooler today with highs on track to reach the middle 30s across central Missouri, to the middle 50s across the extreme southeast corner of Kansas and extreme southwest corner of Missouri.

Cold front brings modest cooldown with highs in the 40s Saturday:

Also noted on mid-level water vapor imagery is another small shortwave currently over Rocky Mountain front range. The small and compact nature of this shortwave will also allow it to quickly move through the area tonight, shifting winds to more northerly, allowing cooler air to filter further south into the area. High Saturday will be cooler in the upper 30s to lower 40s across central Missouri, up to the middle to upper 40s along the southern border. Lows Saturday night then sink into the 20s Saturday night.

Additionally, the first shortwave that moved through this morning has kicked out much of the moisture. Therefore, the shortwave tonight should be mostly dry, however, some models keep some residual atmospheric moisture that could be squeezed out with weak lift ahead of the wave. Therefore, some light sprinkles or flurries (depending on your temperature at the time) may move through between 3 AM and 10 AM Saturday morning. No impacts are expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures much of next week:

After the two small shortwaves move through the area, the longwave pattern holds true with longwave ridging building into the area from the west. This will initiate a quick return to a warming trend Sunday into Monday as winds shift back out of the south. Highs Sunday are forecast to be in the middle 40s across central Missouri, to the middle 50s across extreme southeast Kansas and extreme southwest Missouri. Lows will also be warmer in the lower 30s to middle 40s. Temperatures will quickly climb early next week as the ridge axis inches closer to the region. NBM spreads are pretty confident in highs in the middle 60s and lows in the 40s throughout the week. With ridging overhead, precipitation chances will also be near zero through the day Wednesday.

Mid-week pattern change brings our next chance of precipitation:

After Wednesday, global ensemble clusters are in pretty good agreement with a longwave pattern change that may persist for at least a few days. All clusters depict the flow aloft becoming southwesterly over the area with a trough over the western CONUS. This type of pattern generally allows moisture advection and lift that could result in multiple days of rain chances depending on the shortwaves that move through. While the longwave pattern is in good agreement, clusters still reveal varying differences in the progression of these shortwaves which is resulting in some uncertainty in exact timing and location of rain chances.

That said, as we close in toward the end of the week, ensembles are starting to agree a bit more on one shortwave progression lifting northeast from Mexico, bringing the first chance of rain Wednesday night through Thursday night. There's still some varying differences in position and timing, leading to 30-50% chances trough the period. But, the signal is strengthening for a wave to move through that period, bringing some rain chances.

Going into the extended period beyond Thursday, AI versus physical ensembles diverge in the expected pattern. AI EPS and GEFS ensembles produce a decent signal in the troughing quickly moving through the central CONUS, bringing northwesterly flow back to our after next weekend. On the other hand, physical GEFS and EPS ensembles keep mean flow a bit more west-southwesterly for a few more days after. Depending on the length of the pattern will determine the number of systems that move through. The physical ensemble scenario would allow for multiple chances into next weekend, whereas the AI scenario would probably keep us more dry with northwest flow. Recent research suggests AI ensembles are a bit better at identifying/forecasting large- scale features/patterns than physical ensembles, so it will be interesting to see how the long-range pattern pans out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Current radar imagery has some light radar returns near BBG. Traffic cameras reveal light rain at some locations, though the BBG station is not reporting rain. Therefore, including a TEMPO for light rain and lowered cigs through 20Z. Otherwise, visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing from southwest to northeast during the early portion of the period. Only some middle and high level clouds will remain at all sites after 20Z.

Later, a fropa is forecast to occur between 09-12Z, shifting light winds from easterly to northerly. Ahead of and along the fropa, cigs are expected to drop to MVFR as early as 02-06Z (65-80% chance), with a 15-30% chance of brief periods of IFR cigs. The low confidence in IFR cigs has led to no mention in the TAFs at this time. These cigs are expected to linger through the end of the TAF period. Some sprinkles may also occur with the fropa, but impacts to visibility from any rain should be negligible.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.