textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with some potential records(see climate section).

- Windy conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some gust potential of 30 to 45 mph.

- Rain chances Tuesday night(15-30%), Thursday(20-30%) and Friday night into Saturday night(15-20%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show two strong upper level lows off the west coast. One off the California coast and another off the British Columbia coast with a jet streak of 100-120kts pushing into California. Upper level ridging was located over the central U.S. A southwesterly low level jet around 40kts was advecting warmer air into the area. Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 60s across the area.

Tonight: Upper level energy and jet streak will push eastward into the 4 corners region with jet streak increasing to around 150-160kts. Widespread upper divergence expected into the Rockies and high plains with a surface low and frontal system strengthening over the Rockies and high plains. Low level warm advection will continue with lows tonight from the low 40s in the southeast to the low 50s in the southwest.

Tuesday: Upper level wave will lift northeast into the central and northern plains with a strong surface low pushing into the Dakotas. The main upper energy and surface front will remain well north of the area through the day with a strong pressure gradient developing over the area. Wind gusts in our western CWA of 30 to 40 mph will be possible during the day with 25 to 30 mph gusts in the east. Even though the sky will be mostly cloudy, temperatures should reach the mid 60s to low 70s for highs.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Windy conditions continuing into Tuesday night: The windy conditions will persist into Tuesday night with possibly higher wind gusts during the evening up to 45 mph in parts of the western CWA. A narrow line of instability may set up just ahead of the front with the front and upper energy generating some showers and possibly some thunder(15-30% for rain). The main area of rain will be well north of the forecast area, however the trailing cold front will bring low pops into the forecast for mainly our northern counties.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue into Thursday: A drier air mass moves in behind the front Tuesday night and we should expect more sunshine on Wednesday. High should reach the 70s across the area which may approach or break some records(see climate section for the record highs and record warmest lows).

A secondary low and frontal system should approach on Thursday. Highs ahead of the front should again reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. Some moisture will try to sneak back up to the northeast ahead of the front and we'll have to keep an eye on shower/thunderstorm chances in our far eastern CWA for Thursday afternoon.

A cooler air mass will then move into the area for Friday into the weekend, knocking temperatures back to more seasonal readings. Upper energy will continue to move into the region with low end rain chances(15-25%) Friday night into Saturday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 447 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with passing high clouds. Winds will remain out of the south with increasing speeds and gusts again on Tuesday. Wind gusts around 25kts are likely Tuesday. Low level wind shear is likely at the TAFs beginning late tonight at JLN and SGF and BBG on Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 73/1911 KJLN: 74/2011 KUNO: 77/1986 KVIH: 73/2017

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KJLN: 78/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 54/2011 KJLN: 63/1911 KUNO: 55/1961 KVIH: 55/1961

February 18: KSGF: 51/1971 KJLN: 58/1971 KUNO: 53/1971 KVIH: 50/2017

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.