textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend and a drier stretch of weather through Wednesday, featuring temperatures in the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) return by Thursday and Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. There is still remaining uncertainties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Today-Tonight: A dry airmass has settled into the region this afternoon, featuring a slight warm up and dry weather. Highs top out in the upper 60s to near 70 across the area, which is right around average for mid April. This has been accompanied by mostly clear skies and light west-southwest winds.

As we progress into tonight, a secondary weak cold front sags south into the area with a surface high dropping into the Great Lakes region. This will support some additional cloud cover sneaking into central MO, though PoPs remain less than 10% given little to no moisture return. Lows tonight fall into the 40s, with a bit colder temperatures into the upper 30s across the Eastern Ozarks.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Monday-Wednesday: Broad northwest flow aloft takes shape into early week, with southwesterly low-level flow. This will support ridging across the Plains, with increasing mid-level heights nudging into the area. As a result, a warming trend will continue through early week, with highs reaching into the middle 70s. Additionally, drier weather prevails with this pattern.

Thursday-Saturday: By Thursday, ensemble guidance depicts the evolution of a trough building off the West Coast into the Rockies and Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop to the north of the area with an associated frontal boundary draped across the region. Moisture builds back into the area ahead of this frontal passage, with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additionally, the dynamics become stronger, supporting the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as rain chances (50-80%) increase into Thursday afternoon/night. The latest trends suggest the timing of the frontal passage and associated thunderstorm chances to linger into Friday. SPC has highlighted portions of the area in Severe Weather Outlooks (15-29%) on Thursday and Friday to account for the potential. Localized heavy rainfall and flooding may accompany this system as well, particularly in areas that saw heavy rainfall over the last week. WPC Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook encompasses our area for heavy rainfall during this Thursday and Friday timeframe. There are still many remaining uncertainties with the exact timing, locations of greatest concern, and hazard types. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates through the week. Lower rain chances (20-40%) persist beyond Thursday and Friday into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

For the 00z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the period with a dry air mass in place. Winds will continue to diminish and become southerly tonight before picking back up again out of the south-southwest by mid morning with some gusts up to 22 kts during the day.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.