textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday. Locally elevated fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday.

- Widespread precip chances (70-80%) Saturday night into Sunday night as a cold front moves into the area, including potential for a wintry mix.

- Active pattern this weekend into the middle of March, with a threat for rounds of heavy rainfall and flooding mid to late next week into the following week (March 5-11).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Above normal temperatures through Saturday. Locally elevated fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday: - Impacts: Localized elevated fire weather threat. - Messaging: Graphic highlighting fire danger. - Details: Highs in the 70s (even upper 70s Saturday). Southwest winds up to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph. MinRH values of 20-35% both days. - Meteorological analysis: Any rain from this morning will be isolated and generally light, not providing substantial moisture to reduce fire fuel threat Friday and Saturday. For Friday and Saturday, a warmer airmass will advect in from the west, bringing well above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s. If mixing overachieves, then increased temperatures and decreased dew points may need to be integrated into the forecast, resulting in MinRH in the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Widespread precip chances (70-80%) Saturday night into Sunday night as a cold front moves into the area, including potential for a wintry mix. - Impacts: Potential for a wintry mix of rain, light freezing rain, light snow, and sleet, mainly north of Highway 60. Substantial uncertainty exists, though. Stay tuned. - Messaging: Given wide model spread in critical parameters, confidence is low. Advertising likely precip and generally some wintry mix possible, but can't go into specifics at this point. - Details: Widespread precip develops Saturday night and lingers into Sunday night (possibly in 2-3 waves) with chances at 70-80%. Temperature fields at the surface and aloft are not well agreed on by models, but chances do exist for all modes of wintry precip. - Meteorological analysis: - A cold front moves in and stalls over the area Saturday night into Sunday night as upper energy and jet structure favor widespread lift/precip. This results in high PoPs as models are in good overall agreement on the large scale pattern, but differ considerably on thermal fields that will determine ptype. - 10th-90th ensemble surface temperature spread on Sunday is 30-40 degrees F. At 850mb, 00Z/26 LREF temperature spread is 10+ degrees C on Sunday. So while we are increasingly confidence in precip chances, preciptiation type remains highly uncertain. - At 6am Sunday, LREF shows a joint probability for temperatures < 32 and QPF > 0.05 at 30-50% north of a line from Nevada, MO to Lebanon, MO to Salem, MO.

Active pattern this weekend into the middle of March, with a threat for rounds of heavy rainfall and flooding mid to late next week into the following week (March 5-11). - Impacts: Low confidence/predictability heavy rainfall/flooding event in this time frame. - Messaging: Advertising active pattern with rounds of heavy rainfall possible. WPC 8-14 day Hazards Outlook shows this well with a slight risk for heavy rainfall March 5-11 and a moderate risk March 5-7. - Details: Generally 40-60% chances for rain each period Saturday night through next week. Increasing moisture and a more favorable pattern for flooding may become established. - Meteorological analysis: As an upper low over the desert SW slowly moves east, the pattern may increasingly resemble a Maddox Heavy Rainfall setup with SW flow aloft, a stalled front over/near the area, and increasing moisture. GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show several periods with PWATs above 1", representing around 150-250% of normal values. Additionally, these ensemble systems show 5 day precip anomalies of +1.5-2.5" throughout the March 5-11 time range. Still a lot of details to work out, but enhanced monitoring for flood potential in this period is warranted.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.