textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-60%) Friday night through Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early next week but there is still considerable uncertainty with this potential system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Continued warm and dry conditions through Thursday as 850mb temps remain around 13-15C, resulting in high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s.

There is less than a 15% chance for showers over far southeast KS Thursday afternoon/evening if a weak disturbance can kick off any convection, but the forecast remains dry for now.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

As an upper ridge shifts east of the area and deep troughing moves into the western CONUS this weekend, mid to upper level diffluence and shortwave energy will result in scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. Coverage and amounts of rainfall have decreased slightly in recent model runs. Some areas may remain dry through the entire event, while others see scattered light rainfall but not all day washouts. Friday evening into Friday night will see 15-30% rain chances over the northwestern CWA. Greatest coverage/chances are Saturday afternoon into Saturday night at 30-50%. Deterministic forecast rainfall amounts are currently 0.00-0.12 inches, with NBM probabilities for >=0.10 inches only at 30-50%.

Friday will continue to be very warm with highs in the upper 70s to around 80, but Saturday will see highs in the low to mid 70s.

Early to middle of next week will see potential for widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures closer to normal. This is due to ensembles showing a deep mid level system moving into the central CONUS. However, model spread is still significant with this, which makes sense given the current location of the wave is well west of Alaska and has a substantial amount of evolution to undergo as it interacts with additional waves before moving into the CONUS. Ensemble clusters are showing little preference for one scenario over another, with differences in timing, strength, and track. Outcomes generally range from a strong closed low moving into the area (worst case: Widespread rain, thunderstorms, maybe a severe and flooding risk) to a weaker, positively tiled upper wave (best case: Scattered showers and storms). Model blend results in 50-70% chances for showers and storms Monday into Wednesday. Confidence is too low to discuss specifics, but those with interest should continue to monitor.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few mid-level clouds associated with a sagging cold front will move in from northern Missouri Thursday afternoon underneath scattered high clouds, but no reductions to flight category are expected. Winds may wobble a bit throughout the forecast period but generally prevail out of the south, sustained between 5 to 10 kt.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.