textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect across the entire area through Saturday. Daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s, maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105, and minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area. Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to the Fall fire weather season.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A broad upper-level ridge remains parked over the eastern and central CONUS with its axis centered over the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, little to note in the region.

Heat Continues:

Another day of abnormal heat today with temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Have blended in some CAM dewpoints with NBM output to better account for mixing and align with observed minimum values in this pattern, effectively knocking them down around 2-4 degrees. Still, afternoon heat index values will once again climb into the 100 to 105 degree range.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Heat through the Holiday Weekend:

Ensembles exhibit strong agreement in maintaining the ridge-- and even amplifying it across the central CONUS--for the end of the week and through the weekend. Global models depict 850 mb temperatures of 22-25 C, correlating to surface temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees under mostly clear skies. Dew point variance amongst the guidance is a bit larger owing to typical biases (NAM too moist, GFS too dry, etc), but taking a rough mean of these values would put afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. Thus, maximum heat index values in the low to mid 100s will continue to be common through at least Saturday. Furthermore, the NWS HeatRisk depicts widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) values across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Extreme HeatRisk signifies a long duration heat with little to no overnight relief. This heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration; those with outdoor plans for the holiday in particular should make cooling and hydration options readily available. The Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide through Saturday. Further extensions may be necessary in future forecast updates.

Limited Rain Chances:

The ridge and weak upper-level flow will largely keep rain chances to a minimum through the long term period. Analysis of ensemble postage stamps depicts a limited number of members producing scattered QPF footprints somewhere across the region Saturday through Monday as a diffuse cold front dips into Missouri. A lack of strong forcing limits confidence in this QPF being realized, however, and NBM PoPs remain limited to 10-20%.

Ensemble clusters diverge more significantly by the middle of next week. There is some signal, at least, of a flattening ridge and an open door for rain chances. NBM PoPs are currently at 20-30% on Wednesday and Thursday. With the persistent heat and a lack of appreciable rainfall in the meantime, drought conditions will deteriorate, and fuels will be more susceptible to fire starts. These conditions will need to be monitored closely in the coming weeks for the potential of worsening impacts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of the south sustained between 7-10 kt with gusts up to 17 kt.

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998

September 6: KJLN: 101/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures (KSGF only):

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.