textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually warming up into next week a return to highs in the 80s.

- High confidence in dry weather through next week.

- Monitoring for fire weather threat 7-10 days out (next weekend into early the following week)

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Quiet weather today with high clouds expanding across the area, highs in the 70s, and overnight lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Rainfall: No rain in the forecast over the next 7 days. CPC outlooks call for below normal precipitation through the middle of October, which is backed up by ensembles showing negative precipitation anomalies through the same time range. In fact, ECMWF ensemble probabilities for < 0.10 inches of total QPF through October 12th is 80-90%.

Temperatures/Humidity: Today will be the coolest day with highs in the 70s, followed by highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s through Tuesday, then low to upper 80s through next weekend. Look for afternoon minimum RH values generally at 30-40% through next weekend, with areas along/west of I-49 being slightly higher and areas east of Highway 65 being lower with several days below 30% and perhaps some days below 20%.

Fire weather threat 7-10 days out (next weekend into early the following week): Still early to be confident in details, but models are starting to show a period of gustier winds and minimal to no rainfall next weekend into at least the early part of the following week. This may be concerning given significant portions of the area received less than an inch of recent rainfall on top of extensive drought conditions, no rainfall over the next week, and persistent low humidity each day. Ensemble 75th-95th percentile gusts (representing the higher end of model guidance) are generally of 25-35 mph. While these winds are not the most likely scenario, they are a plausible outcome and worth keeping an eye on given expected fuel conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR clouds are over the area and will remain in place this evening into the overnight hours, then will clear by Sunday morning. A few sprinkles will be possible across south central Missouri this evening, but this activity should remain south and east of the TAF sites. Light winds will occur this evening and tonight with northerly winds occurring on Sunday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.