textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Lows in the mid to upper 30s tonight and Sunday night. May see some areas of frost development. Planning on frost advisory for much of the area tonight.

- Warming trend begins by mid-week with an upper level pattern change.

- Unsettled conditions with daily rain chances from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a split flow over the CONUS with the polar jet dipping into the central plains and mid Mississippi valley with a closed low over MN. A weak subtropical jet was pushing into the Baja region and along the U.S. Mexico border. The surface cold front has shifted east of the CWA, but some lingering stratus was occurring in the cooler air behind the front with a clearing sky in the far western CWA. The clouds and cooler air have kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s early this afternoon and low 60s closer to the front in the southeast.

Tonight: Upper trough axis will shift east of the area with the surface high starting to push into the area from the northwest. Winds should diminish after sunset the the sky will continue to clear from west to east during the afternoon leaving a clear sky tonight. HREF probabilities are giving around 40-100% chance of temperatures below 37 degrees tonight for most of the area...all but the far southwest and far southeast. While the potential for frost looks borderline, will error on the side of caution and will be going with a frost advisory for much of the CWA overnight.

Sunday - Sunday night: The surface ridge will move overhead during this time frame with dry conditions, sunny during the day a clear during the night. Afternoon highs on Sunday are expected in the low to mid 60s with lows Sunday night dipping back into the mid to upper 30s. The coolest temperatures will shift a bit east into the eastern Ozarks. May need another frost advisory on Sunday night, but will tackle that tomorrow.

Monday - Monday night: Another cold front is expected to move through the area on Monday, but should move through dry. Some models are developing a band of precipitation mainly north of the CWA in an area of mid level frontogenesis Monday night into Tuesday but we should remain dry for most of our CWA. Highs Monday should range from the mid 60s in the north to the low 70s in the south, with lows Monday night from the mid 30s north to the low 40s south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Warming trend and unsettled conditions in the longer term: Flow becomes more westerly aloft by the middle of the week with the split flow continuing. Low level warm advection will ramp up by Wednesday and we should see temperatures warm back into the low to mid 70s across the CWA.

An upper low will begin to push into the California coast late in the week with a broad area of southwest flow aloft developing from south of the low into the mid/upper MS valley. A front boundary will likely get stalled out over the region with low level Gulf moisture advection into the area. Precipitation chances will begin on Thursday and continue into the upcoming weekend and may continue into the early part of the following week as the low ejects out of the southwest CONUS into the central U.S.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

For the 18z TAFS, surface front has shifted east of the forecast terminals with some lingering stratus behind the front. Some MVFR conditions will continue into the early to mid afternoon before clearing out. High pressure will move into the area tonight with a clear sky and diminishing wind.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>097-105.