textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions will occur through Monday night with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Warming trend this weekend through next week, with highs topping out near 70 F by the end of the work week.

- 10-20% chance for rain showers from Wednesday night into Thursday with 30-50% chances for rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from late Friday night into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The region is located between an upper level low moving off towards the northeastern CONUS and another upper level trough moving southeast towards the southern Plains currently. A cooler air mass remains over the region as highs today will warm into the upper 40s to the lower 50s this afternoon. A dry air mass will be in place with afternoon humidity values in the 30 to 40% range today. Light east to southeasterly winds will occur this afternoon.

The upper level trough to the west will continue to move to the southeast across the southern Plains tonight into Sunday then slowly to the southeast on Monday remaining south of the area. A drier air mass is in place across the area and the better lift will remain southwest of the area so no rain is expected across the area with this system.

High level clouds will continue to move east across the area today into Sunday morning. Clear skies are then expected Sunday night through Monday night. Highs will warm a few degrees each day with highs in the lower to middle 50s on Sunday with highs in the middle 50s to near 60 on Monday. The NBM has a small temperatures spread in highs between the ensemble model members through Monday. Afternoon RH values will again drop to around 30 to 40% with light southeasterly winds both Sunday and Monday.

Surface highs pressure will remain over the region through Monday then will start to push off to the east Monday night. Lows tonight and again Sunday night will again drop into the lower 20s to the lower 30s with the coldest readings across the eastern Ozarks. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning may actually be a few degrees cooler than tonight as high level clouds will be in place tonight. Lows on Monday night into Tuesday morning will range from the middle/upper 20s across the eastern Ozarks to the upper 30s across extreme southeastern Kansas as southerly winds start return from west to east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Tuesday through Thursday:

Long wave charts indicate that an upper-level ridge will be positioned over the region during the midweek period. Ensemble clusters are consistent in bringing an upper-level short wave trough out of the western U.S. and into the northern and central Plains on Wednesday before reaching the western Great Lakes early Thursday. This feature will likely be shearing with time given that it will encounter the long wave ridge.

At the surface, a sprawling area of high pressure will remain entrenched over the eastern U.S. That aforementioned short wave trough will be reflected at the surface in the form of a cold front. However, the track and shearing nature of the wave will likely result in that front either remaining north of the area or being very weak in nature if it can manage to pass through the Ozarks.

Given an overall lack of forcing and limited moisture return, it will be difficult to realize any measurable precipitation. We have kept PoPs in the 10-20% range from Wednesday night into Thursday if forcing and moisture return are on the higher end of the ensemble envelope.

NBM probabilistic data reveals tight clustering with respect to temperatures for the midweek period, thus our confidence is high in temperature forecasts. High temperatures will return to the middle 60s to lower 70s by Thursday.

Friday into Monday:

Ensembles indicate a stronger upper level short wave trough emerging from the Rockies and into the central U.S. However, the timing and magnitude of this wave vary considerably. We are confident that this wave will be stronger than the feature that passes through the region around midweek as the long wave ridge is forecast to weaken over the central U.S. by the weekend.

With that being said, a cold front will likely pass through the area sometime in the Friday night or Saturday time frame. Stronger forcing and better moisture return will both be favored with this setup, thus we expect the potential for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms with the frontal passage. The potential for thunder will depend on the quality of moisture return and overall instability. For now, we have PoPs in the 30-50% range from late Friday night into Saturday night. PoPs may be increased for a specific time period once we get a better feel for the timing of that cold front.

Temperatures ahead of that front will continue to be mild on Friday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Temperatures will then cool off behind the front, however the magnitude of cooling behind the front for Sunday and early next week is still in question:

Scenario 1 (60% chance): Ensemble clusters indicate northwesterly flow developing behind the trough with a stronger polar fetch. This would result in a more substantial cooldown with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s and lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Scenario 2 (40% chance): Ensemble clusters indicate a flatter flow behind the passing trough and less in the way of a polar fetch. This would result in a more modest cooldown with highs falling back into the upper 50s to middle 60s with lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon through the day on Saturday. High level clouds will move across the region during the TAF period. East to Southeasterly winds will occur through the TAF period generally between 4 and 10 kt.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.