textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 40-70% chances of rain return Friday and last into early next weekend. Monitoring for limited flooding potential. - Temperature and precipitation favored to be above normal for next week, but hazardous conditions are not expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 0115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A high pressure center sits over the midwest today with ridging and anticyclonic flow dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the High Plains and to the west, the pattern is more active, with a low pressure center churning just north of Montana, lows off the PNW and Baja regions, and shortwave energy kicking off some precipitation across New Mexico and Texas. The high pressure holds true for us today, bringing a gorgeous day of sunshine with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and comfortable dewpoints in the 50s.

Moisture and cloud cover increase tonight as the troughing to the west begins to push in. This will keep things pretty warm tonight with lows in the 60s west of Springfield and in the upper 50s to the east where the high pressure still holds more influence.

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible tomorrow as shortwave energy moves northeast through the area. This potential is confined to areas west and south of Springfield where moisture is maximized, and PoPs remain below 30%. These would be quick, light, summertime showers. With the return to southerly flow, highs will climb into the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints near 70 will make for a slightly uncomfortable heat. The good news is that partial cloud cover will break up the direct sun.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 0115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Upper level ridging will be across the Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, and into New England by Thursday evening. This will allow for south to southwesterly flow from the Gulf bringing deep moisture into the Ozarks to produce showers and isolated storms as an upper level shortwave moves across the plains. Thanks to the southerly flow, precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, limited instability and a 25 to 30kt low level jet providing some lift will allow for rather efficient rainfall where rain occurs. The overall pattern remains similar into and through the weekend, though moisture gets trapped under a building ridge and a shortwave/upper low moves up the western edge of the ridge Sunday into Monday. This dirty ridge will keep rain chances in place from Thursday night into early next week.

In general, rain chances remain in the 40 to 70% as indicated in previous discussions through the next 7 days. The details in how much remain in flux however. The chances more than 0.10 inches of rain on any given day range from less than 20% Thursday this week and Wednesday through Friday next week to as much as 50 to 80% this Friday through Monday. Sunday and Monday also present the best potential for rainfall of an inch or greater with a 20 to 25% chance each day.

If we look at the next 7 days as a whole, the region can expect to see from 0.75 to 2.00 inches of rainfall. some locations may see a little more or a little less.

Through the period, the temperature trend will be on a slow climb thanks to building upper level ridging. Temperatures will generally rise through the 80s, potentially reaching the upper 80s to around 90 by the end of next week. Additionally, dew points will be on the rise as well helping to increase humidity levels. This will occur thanks to rainfall and continued atmospheric moisture advection from the Gulf and the southwest flow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Passing high clouds and 5-10 kt southeasterly winds are expected to continue through 14Z. After 14Z, 8-13 kt surface winds will become more southerly, increasing moisture. Therefore, some low clouds are expected after 14Z. There is some question on if these cigs become MVFR. For now, the chance is <30%, keeping mention of 4 kft BKN cigs.

Between 18-00Z, some pop-up showers and thunderstorms will develop around the area, with less than 30% chance of them impacting SGF and BBG directly. The best chance for precipitation impacting a TAF site will be at JLN where a PROB30 is mentioned at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.