textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain possible Thursday afternoon, transitioning to drizzle Thursday evening into Friday.

- Lows in the 20s and 30s will introduce the potential for frost and freeze Friday night into early next week.

- Warming trend early next week, with a return of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Currently, the CONUS pattern is dominated by a deep closed low over the upper Mississippi Valley and a shortwave trough over the Four Corners Region. Both these features will result in weather in the long term portion of the forecast.

Clouds continue to clear this afternoon and evening, resulting in mostly clear skies through tonight.

Look for lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s tonight under light southwest winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

As the shortwave over the west moves east on Thursday, it will cross through the CWA while merging into trough associated with the closed low currently to the north. This will allow for a 20-40% chance of showers over the area Thursday afternoon. As the trough moves east, it will bring a cold front through the area, with cooler conditions and greater low level moisture behind the front. This will be an ideal drizzle setup across the area Thursday night into Friday, with moisture trapped below an increasingly sharp inversion. The big question is how long the drizzle and/or low clouds last on Friday, with some guidance keeping it around through much of the day. On top of drizzle remaining, this would result in cooler high temperatures than currently predicted and possibly not getting out of the 40s in some areas.

If skies can clear, which most guidance suggests they will, Friday night will see lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s (coldest over the typical cold spots in the eastern Ozarks). Similar lows are expected through at least Sunday night and possibly into Monday night, resulting in widespread frost/freeze conditions. There is high confidence that this forecast will remain on track, which would require headlines in the coming shifts. If the clouds and drizzle can persist into Friday night, temperatures would stay warmer due to the cloud cover and freezing drizzle would not be expected.

The pattern becomes quite uncertain this weekend into next week as models show a wide range of outcomes with upper level energy. At this time, we are not seeing any noteworthy precip chances for this time period, but changes in temperature forecasts may occur as the picture becomes more clear.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR flight conditions through tonight and much of Thursday afternoon ahead of a frontal passage. This frontal passage will bring light rain and drizzle chances to the area in the later part of the TAF period. Confidence is low on coverage, and thus is not being captured in the TAFs at this time.

West-southwest winds through early Thursday afternoon, becoming north-northwest behind the frontal passage Thursday evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.