textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather concerns through mid-week, and again this weekend.

- Warming trend into mid-week, with the potential for record high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs 15 to 25 degrees above average for late March.

- Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather for Thursday evening which includes areas north of Springfield along a line from Pittsburg, KS east to Round Spring, MO. All hazards possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Surface high pressure will slowly push east over the northeast while surface low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest today. That low has already started to bring high clouds to our area early this morning. Winds are out of the southeast and staying near 10 mph. Temperatures are a bit warmer than last night in the mid to upper 40s. Highs today will be pleasant in the upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. The drier air associated with high pressure to our east will be evident in the min RH values today. Lowest RH's will be east of Highway 65 in the 20-30% range while values west of Highway 65 will be in the 30-40% range. Elevated fire weather conditions will primarily occur east of Highway 65.

Tonight, lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Wednesday-Friday: Record high temperatures may be broken again by mid-week as mid-level high pressure starts to build over the southern Plains. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s once again which is almost 30 degrees above normal for this time of year. However, a cold front looks to move through on Thursday evening.

Southwesterly winds increase ahead of the front up to 35 mph especially near I-49. Wind speeds could continue to strengthen as we get closer to Thursday since the NBM is showing a 40% chance for wind speeds greater than 40 mph for the I-49 corridor. Min RH's will also be in the 30% range that day and we'll have to monitor for Red Flag Warning conditions mostly over the areas that have the higher wind gusts. Luckily, this front is forecast to bring us some rain. Model guidance has thunderstorms pushing in from north to south with the better ingredients for severe weather east of us over in the Ohio River Valley. SPC has upgraded a few of our counties to a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather on Thursday. The outlook includes areas north of Springfield along a line from Pittsburg, KS east to Round Spring, MO. Right now, MUCAPE is 1100-1500 J/kg over central MO, 700-500mb lapse rates are around 8 C/km, and the 0-3 km SRH is in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. Expect isolated severe thunderstorms that could be capable of damaging winds and hail and a localized tornado threat.

Rainfall amounts will be light with most locations seeing <0.5". Rain is forecast to start Thursday evening with the round of thunderstorms and continue through the night falling behind the front as well. Rain hangs around for awhile on Friday with 30-40% PoPs through most of the day which has increased over the last 24 hours. This will likely include clouds hanging around for most of the day as well which would leave us with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday: Surface high pressure moves in for the weekend and highs will be pleasant in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s which is closer to average for this time of year. No rain is expected this weekend and skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Though, a very dry air mass will be in place this weekend dropping our min RH values into the 20-30% range with south- southeasterly winds gusting near 20 mph. Another weekend where we'll have to watch for significant fire weather concerns.

Monday: A shortwave trough looks to move through the area ahead of another cold front incoming on Tuesday. Right now, highs will be in the 80s on Monday with a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms starting Monday evening and persisting into the overnight hours.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR through the period with high clouds overhead. Winds are out of the southeast with gusts near 20 knots. Winds will diminish this evening but stay around 10 knots.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KSGF: 83/1910 KJLN: 88/1910 KVIH: 80/1959 KUNO: 79/2012

March 26: KSGF: 82/2020 KJLN: 86/1910 KVIH: 83/2020 KUNO: 86/2020

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.