textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder conditions into early Monday. Coldest time period is this morning with minimum wind chill values of -10F to 0F.

- Strong warm up this week with temperatures swinging to well above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Through this morning:

- Coldest temperatures/wind chills of the season with temps in the single digits to low teens and wind chills of 0F to -10F.

- Some lake effect flurries are occuring downwind of larger area lakes, but will diminish today.

Rest of today and tonight:

- Continued much colder than normal with highs today in the 20s and lows tonight mainly in the teens.

- Winds will become calm by this afternoon, eliminating wind chill factor for the rest of today. Southerly winds pick up a bit tonight, bringing wind chill values in the single digits to low teens.

- Any remaining cloud cover will clear out.

Monday:

- After the previously mentioned cold start to the day, things will turn around quickly as southwest flow increases (gusts up to 20-30 mph).

- Sunny skies and strong warm advection will lead to highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Tuesday through Wednesday:

- The amplified pattern of a strong upper trough over the eastern CONUS and ridge over the western CONUS has resulted in a lot of warm air over the west. The pattern becomes more zonal, allowing the warmer airmass to shift east across the area.

- No precip expected.

- Highs in the 50s Tuesday and around 60 on Wednesday. High confidence in this forecast given little ensemble spread.

Wednesday night into Thursday night:

- Models in good general agreement on a deep upper trough diving into the central CONUS, but differ on details related to timing and strength of the system which will impact temperatures and precipitation, among other parameters. LREF clusters do not significantly favor one solution over another as each has similar model membership percentages. This to say that going with the ensemble mean is still the best path forward at this time.

- NBM has been increasing chances for rain (would be all rain even with faster, colder solutions since rain moves out before cold air arrives), now featuring a 20-40% chance for areas east of Highway 65. If model trends continue to be stronger with this system, expect increased and expanded chances.

- Spread in NBM potential temperature outcomes increases to several degrees for highs Thursday and lows Thursday night. Current forecast calls for Thursday highs in the mid 50s to around 60, but that may end up being early before a cold front moves through. Lows Thursday night are forecast to be in the mid to upper 20s. Could see temperatures below 20, with NBM putting chances of that occuring at around 20% over central MO and the eastern Ozarks. Again, timing and extent of the front is uncertain. Friday and Saturday:

- We roll right back into the early to mid week pattern behind the potential Thursday system. Look for highs most likely in the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday and in the in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday. Confidence is medium during this time frame due to greater ensemble spread.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will become light and variable today.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.