textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended stretch of active weather continues, with daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of next week.

- Severe weather is possible Sunday through Wednesday, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Sunday will be quite breezy, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph.

- Potential also exists for flash flooding and river flooding in areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, especially as the week progresses and rainfall accumulations add up.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

An area of showers move northeast across central Missouri early this afternoon. This activity will continue to move northeast and out of the area in the next hour or two.

High level clouds remain over the area but the mid level clouds associated with the rain is clearing from west to east across the area this afternoon. Satellite is showing some cumulus clouds developing across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Instability is increasing in these areas and some scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Instability starts to weaken this evening so any isolated showers/storms will be from through early evening ending by 6/7pm. Shear is not overly strong so not expecting any severe risk with the storms today, but cannot rule out a strong storms winds to 40mph and 1/2" size hail possible. Coverage will remain limited and most locations will likely not be affected.

An upper level trough will lift northeast across the southern Plains tonight and across the region on Sunday. An area of showers and embedded storms will develop ahead of the trough to will start to move east into the area late tonight into Sunday morning then across the rest of the area Sunday afternoon. Models show instability increasing across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri behind the morning convection Sunday afternoon/evening but the models also show a cap remaining in place and not weakening this far east. If the cap can weaken enough Sunday afternoon/evening after the morning convection some scattered storm develop will be possible again across the western portions of the area, and would also be the potential for a few strong storms mainly along and west of I-49 with hail the main risk. If the cap does not weaken then there would not be a risk of strong storms Sunday afternoon/evening.

The pressure gradient will increase across the area on Sunday with south to southeasterly winds increasing and becoming gusty at times. The strongest winds will generally be along and west of Highway 65 where gusts of 30 to 40 mph will occur at times, if enough mixing can occur there could be the potential for a few gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Highs will warm into the 80s on Monday and instability will increase across the area again with the heating of the day. Models are showing a cap will again be in place and forcing on Monday does not look overly strong, which will limit storm potential Monday. If the storm can weaken and storms develop there could be the potential for some strong to severe storms on Monday.

Another upper level trough will move east into the Plains on Tuesday and will push a dry line east into central Kansas. Storms will likely develop along the dry line Tuesday evening. The upper level trough will move northeast and the frontal boundary will just move into eastern Kansas and stall. Therefore, storms may not make it very far east Tuesday evening and night, with the activity remaining across the western portions the area. There could be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this activity Tuesday evening and night with across the western portions of area.

Another upper level trough will move into the plains on Wednesday and push the dry line further east but will again likely stall across eastern Kansas on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storm development will likely occur ahead of the frontal boundary Wednesday evening and there will be the potential for severe storms with this activity. Models still differ slightly in the timing of the upper level trough move east across the area some bringing in across the area Wednesday night others on Thursday. Showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the trough as it moves east. The slower solutions, rain chances Wednesday night would likely remain west of Highway 65 and move east across the area on Thursday. The faster solutions would bring the rain across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There will be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this activity as it moves across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area this afternoon and will push north of the area by this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms are then expected to push east into extreme southeastern Kansas a far western Missouri Sunday morning and push east during the afternoon hours. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with the showers and storms Sunday morning.

South to southeasterly winds will occur through the TAF period and will become gusty on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 11: KSGF: 84/1996 KUNO: 85/1965, 2019

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 12: KSGF: 63/1972 KJLN: 71/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 66/1972

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.