textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area today through the weekend as highs warm into the 50s and 60s each afternoon. Friday is expected to be the warmest day during this period.

- Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday morning. Higher rainfall amounts expected south of I-44. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with this activity.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures next week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

An area of surface high pressure is currently over the central Plains early this morning and will continue to move east across the area today. Winds will be light today generally around 5mph with the high moving over head, as the strongest winds of the day are occurring now. There could be some gusts up to around 10mph at times.

A slightly cooler air mass will be in place today than the very warm conditions that occurred the last two days. Highs will warm into the 50s this afternoon, which is still above normal for this time of year. A dry air mass will also be in place today and with mixing afternoon humidity values will drop to around 20 to 30%, and there could be some locations that drop into the teens. Lows will drop into the lower to middle 30s tonight into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Thursday the surface high pressure will move off to the east and remain across the eastern U.S. through the end of the week. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across the northern Plains on Thursday and across the region Thursday night. Moisture return will be limited across the area on Thursday ahead of this disturbance, the better lift with the system will also be to the north. Still there will be the potential for some isolated showers Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly across central Missouri closer to the trough. Coverage will be limited and most locations will likely remain dry. Rainfall amounts will remain light where any showers are able to develop on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will again warm into the 50s with some lower 60s possible across far southwestern MO.

An upper level trough will move east onto the southwestern U.S. Thursday night into Friday morning. An upper level ridge will move east over the area on Friday ahead of the trough. Warm air advection will occur under the ridge allowing highs to warm into the 60s area wide by evening with increasing clouds on Friday afternoon.

Surface low pressure will develop ahead of the upper level trough, and surface high pressure will be in place across the eastern U.S. This will allow moisture return to start across across the area on Friday ahead of the system. Most of the day on Friday should remain dry as the system remains off to the southeast.

The upper level trough and surface low will move east into the southern Plains Friday night then will move east across Arkansas on Saturday. A warm front will lift north ahead of the low Friday night into Saturday, with rain developing along the front as moisture returns to the north. Rain chances will continue ahead of the trough during the day on Saturday. Models continue to be in fairly good agreement with the overall system, but there are still difference in the fine details and the exact track between the models and from run and run. A further northern track would bring the better rainfall amounts to the entire area, but a southern shift would keep the better amounts south of the area. There also could be a sharper drop off in rain to the north. The better chances will be along and south of I-44. Amounts are going to depend on the exact track of the system. At this time the area looks to be on the northern edge of the rain, so a slight shift north or south will have large impacts on amounts. Rain will linger into Sunday morning before moving off to the east with the trough Sunday afternoon.

An upper level trough will develop off the west coast early next week, with upper level ridging develop over the central U.S. for the first half of next week. The ensemble model members indicate well above normal temperatures for the area during this time with highs in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 418 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area today through tonight as surface high pressure moves across the area. Northerly winds are occurring early this morning and will remain on the light side today becoming southeasterly by tonight into Thursday morning. High level clouds will start to increase across the area tonight into Thursday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.