textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today generally southwest of Highway 65. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main risks, with a lower risk of a tornado or two.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances persist through Friday. An associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding risk will accompany each round. A Slight Risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding capture this potential into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

An upper level high pressure system is currently situated over parts of AZ/NM/TX, with a shortwave trough continuing to push southeast through the area during the early morning hours.

Observations show relative humidities across a large portion of the area in the upper 90% to even 100% range. With the recent rainfall from yesterday's complex leading to saturated soils over southeast KS/southwest MO, satellite imagery shows patchy areas of fog, with observations depicting lowered visibilities down to 2-5 miles (with very localized areas occasionally down to 0.25 miles) in that general area. The continued thought is that this shouldn't get widespread or dense enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, but we'll continue to watch the trends over the next few hours so see if one ends up being needed.

The shower/thunderstorm complex that pushed through southeast KS/southwest MO earlier yesterday afternoon and evening ended up working over the atmosphere, leading to the better instability being pushed further south than originally anticipated. Additionally, the shortwave trough and associated instability gradient that led to the development of the strong to severe thunderstorm complex currently over the Plains was realized further west than originally anticipated. As a result, that complex will continue to push southeast during the morning hours, however it should mostly remain out of our CWA as it moves through Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. With the upper level disturbance moving through the area overnight, some isolated showers near the MO/AR border can be seen on radar, which will continue to be possible for areas primarily south of Highway 60 over the next few hours. Latest trends however show much of the area remaining dry this morning.

As the day continues, another shortwave trough will make its way through the area, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the CWA. Most of this activity should remain sub-severe, however an isolated storm could get strong enough to produce localized damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. This would primarily be possible over far southeast KS and far southwest MO. Otherwise, temperatures should climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for much of the area this afternoon, with overnight lows tonight in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Thursday will once again bring active weather as another shortwave trough is progged to push through the Plains and into the area by Thursday evening. As storms look to develop in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, guidance shows them pushing east into the Ozarks during mid/late afternoon and into the evening hours following an increase in instability. There remains a question of storm mode once they reach the area, as supercells will be possible further west, with more of a line segment/cluster possibility as it approaches far southeast KS/southwest MO. Additionally, the exact track of these storms is also still a question, as that would be dependent on where exactly they develop. Regardless, the primary hazards will be large hail and damaging winds, with a tornado or two as a lesser, secondary hazard. The Storm Prediction Center highlights areas west of Highway 65 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather, with a Marginal risk (1 of 5) for a majority of the remaining CWA.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the wake of these afternoon/evening storms and linger into Friday, bringing a flooding risk to the area. High PWATs will once again support efficient rainfall rates, and any training showers/storms will lead to a localized flash flooding potential. The uncertainty with this lies in the location of the highest flooding threat, as these storms will be more banded in nature. Similar to the severe threat, the highest rainfall (and hence flooding threat) will be dependent on where storms develop on Thursday and where the band of showers/storms sets up. WPC highlighted the entire area in a Slight Risk (2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall to account for the flooding potential.

Looking ahead to the end of the weekend and into next week, models show an upper level ridge building over the central CONUS. This will lead to warmer temperatures as the mid-level heights rise, with the NBM interquartile spread showing the 25th to 75th percentiles in the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

IFR conditions are currently affecting the TAF sites as patchy fog and low-level clouds can be seen on radar. This should improve to MVFR by ~15Z, with VFR returning by late morning/early afternoon. Included PROB30 groups for -SHRA this afternoon/evening as isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible (20-50%). Went with the PROB30 group due to the lower confidence in coverage and if they'll affect the TAF sites. Otherwise, surface winds will be shifting throughout the day, generally between 5-10kts before becoming light and variable overnight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.