textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 15-25 mph winds with gusts up to 35 mph will persist into this evening.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes along and east of Highway 65 today. Line of showers and thunderstorms will be out of the area around 6 PM.

- Drizzle may occur this afternoon/evening on the backside of the main line of showers and thunderstorms.

- Rain chances return Thursday (40-60%) with dry weather expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain has begun to move in over SE KS/SW MO early this morning. There is still a tornado watch in effect until 3 AM for this area. However, this convection has been underwhelming and so far hasn't reached its potential over our area. The lack of instability may have been one of the factors that limited the severe potential. There were moments over in NE OK that all the elements lined up perfectly, and a few tornado warnings were issued. Models aren't handling the current set up well, but we can't completely rule out a quick spin-up as this line continues its way northeast. As far as damaging winds, we haven't seen winds more than 40-50 mph from this activity. Overall, the widespread severe threat hasn't materialized, but we will see beneficial rainfall of around 1-2 inches across the area.

Southeasterly winds have remained gusty near 35 mph and will remain elevated through this evening. Wind direction will change throughout the day with winds turning southwesterly by late morning and northwesterly later this evening. This line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east through the night and into Tuesday. As the line continues to push east through the day, we'll still need to monitor for the threat of severe weather especially this afternoon. If destabilization can occur this afternoon east of Highway 65, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and a brief, spin-up tornado or two are possible. There is a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather over that area to account for this possibility. The eastern Ozarks will have a similar environment to what we've seen tonight with wind shear overachieving and instability lacking. There will also be some dry air in the mid-levels that starts to creep into the area from west to east following this line. Severe weather may also be limited if cloud cover ahead of the line limits destabilization later this afternoon. The chance for severe weather is more conditional today.

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy today with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. There is a chance for drizzle this afternoon/evening on the backside of the main line of showers and thunderstorms. There will be some leftover upward omega available as long as the moisture is there. If drizzle does occur, it may lower visibilities during the evening commute if it becomes heavy enough. Northwesterly winds will continue to diminish overnight with clouds beginning to thin out. Lows tonight will be a bit cooler in the mid 40s as that cold air advection and drier air starts to filter in.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The low pressure system that moves through at the beginning of the week will drop our temperatures, but only by about 10 degrees. Though, it will bring them closer to average for this time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the rest of the week. Cloud cover starts to dissipate on Wednesday and skies remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny into the weekend. Rain chances have returned back into the forecast this Thursday as another low pressure system moves through. Model guidance has struggled with these rain chances, but we'll take the rain if we can get it. Rain chances are 40-60% through the day Thursday with the higher chances occurring over the western CWA. Surface high pressure moves back in for the weekend. Dry weather is expected and patchy fog may occur if lows can dip into the 30s this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A band of showers is currently exiting east of the TAF sites. Behind the showers, there is a narrow dry slot producing mostly clear skies over SGF and BBG. West of this slot, MVFR cigs are moving into JLN. This cloud deck will then move into SGF and BBG by 20-00Z. Some drizzle or light showers may accompany these conditions, which may drop visibilities at times, but otherwise, cigs are expected to be MVFR with a 30-40% chance of IFR cigs at times. Once in place, these cigs are expected to hold through much of the 18Z TAF period, slightly clearing towards the end.

Winds within the dry/clear slow will be slightly more gusty with gusts up to 25-35 kts. Once cloud cover increased, winds should diminish and turn westerly at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.