textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (15-30%) for a narrow band of light wintry mix becoming light snow into this evening across central Missouri. Low confidence in any light snow accumulations, generally limited to a dusting or less.

- Low chances (10-20%) for freezing drizzle south of Interstate 44 corridor this evening into tonight, with the best chances across south central Missouri. Low confidence in a light glaze of ice and a few slick spots into Thursday morning.

- Much colder on Thursday with highs in the 30s, before a return to 40s through the weekend. Furthermore, confidence is increasing in a warming trend into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Through Tonight: A shortwave trough builds off the leeside of the Rockies today, with a cold front surging south out of the Plains. Strong dynamics overlay the region, with a 120-140 knot jet streak. Moisture lifting north will clash with the front sliding south. In this area of frontogenesis, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out some precipitation. This introduces low PoPs (15-30%) across the area through this evening and tonight. Initial temperature profiles would support rain, before a changeover to a wintry mix. However, the other side of picture would suggest little to no coverage of precipitation through tonight due a lack of sufficient moisture.

The most likely scenario based on the latest trends suggests a narrow band of light wintry mix sliding through portions of the area. This can be gleaned from the latest radar analysis, depicting light reflectivity echos developing across central MO. However, much of this has struggled to make it to ground so far this afternoon, as low- level moisture remains marginal. As we progress through the late afternoon into the evening, a slight uptick in moisture is progged to occur, supporting PoPs up to 30% across central and south central MO. A deeper look would suggest light rain develops in a narrow band associated with 700mb frontogenesis. As colder air settles into the area and sunset occurs, a changeover to light rain to wintry mix to all light snow would occur. Confidence remains low on the extent of coverage and any potential accumulations. The higher end of guidance suggest light snowfall amounts across central MO towards a 0.5 inch, with most of the guidance around a dusting or less. As the front sinks further south, the attention turns towards light wintry mix becoming light drizzle/freezing drizzle. This is generally in the area east of Highway 65 and south of Highway 60, where low-level moisture is present in the vicinity of no cloud ice. Thus, supporting the potential development of areas of drizzle to freezing drizzle. The residual time of any freezing drizzle would be short-lived, with it falling as a very fine drizzle in terms of microphysics. Additionally, as stratus builds down, some spotty areas of freezing fog may develop again into south central MO. Likewise, confidence remains low in this potential as well. However, any light accumulations of snow or a glaze of ice could support some slick spots, especially on elevated or untreated roadways. With all this in mind, the extent of coverage of wintry precipitation is expected to remain low, with most areas likely remaining dry through tonight.

On the contrary, moisture and forcing overlap may not be enough to overcome dry air in the low-levels. In this scenario, lower PoPs would be warranted along a dry frontal passage.

Nonetheless, the frontal passage supports colder air building into the area overnight, with lows in the teens (north) and lower 20s (south). Northerly winds around 10 to 15 mph gives way to wind chills in the single digits to teens for Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Thursday: Guidance suggests the stratus deck behind the front gradually dissipates through Thursday for portions of the area, with colder temperatures in the forecast. Highs Thursday reach into the upper 20s (north) to middle 30s (south).

As we progress through the day, a secondary shortwave ejects eastward into the region. The latest ensembles suppress the jet streak further south of the area, which would suggest a shift of precipitation axis further south. There has been a lack of run to run, and model to model consistency with this wave. Based on the latest, the general consensus is low PoPs (10-20%) skirting the MO/AR border. Timing would generally be late afternoon through the night if anything is able to materialize. However, confidence remains low once again. Another cold night across the area with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.

Friday-Sunday: As we get into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quasi-zonal to northwesterly. This will support a bit "warmer" temperatures, though still 5+ degrees below normal for early December. Highs this weekend are progged to reach into the 40s to near 50 on Friday and Saturday, before yet another frontal passage cools us off into Sunday. Ensembles vary on associated precipitation chances with the frontal passage. For now, keeping PoPs low around 15-25%.

Next Week: Ensembles are slowly coming into better agreement on mid-level riding building east towards the region into next week. If confidence continues to increase in this signal, next week would favor a return of temperatures near to above normal into the 50s. Additionally, this pattern would support a drier stretch of weather. This aligns with the latest CPC 6 to 10 day Outlook, with remaining uncertainty on the extent east of the ridging.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds are scattering out early afternoon, though will be short-lived as additional cloud covers builds in this afternoon ahead of a frontal passage. Expect IFR to MVFR flight conditions with the frontal passage into this evening, with ceilings around 900 to 2500 feet. Additionally, there is a low chance (10-20%) as depicted by the PROB30 groups for light wintry mix overnight. Confidence is low in coverage and extent of chances. Flight conditions gradually improve late in the TAF period.

Meanwhile, expect light southerly winds to become more west- northwest with the frontal passage. Likely a more northeasterly component at KBBG.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.