textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will develop this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Elevated fire weather conditions will also occur this afternoon and this evening as the gusty winds and dry conditions combine.

- Warming trend into the start of the weekend. A drier stretch of weather is expected through Saturday.

- 50-80% chance for a line of gusty showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Severe wind gust potential exists east of Highway 65. - Then, 30-50% chances for light wintry precipitation Sunday night as colder air rushes in, bringing 30-40 mph wind gusts with it.

- Below average temperatures in the 30s Monday will quickly rebound to above average by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

An area of surface highs pressure is moving southeast across southern Missouri early this afternoon and will continue to move off to the southeast today. An area of surface low pressure is currently moving across the northern Plains this afternoon. The pressure gradient will continue tightening from northwest to southeast this afternoon and especially this evening as the high moves off to the southeast and the low moves east today. As this occurs, southwesterly winds will increase and become gusty at times with gusts up to 30 to 40mph mainly this evening, with the gusty winds occurring into the overnight hours. Highs will continue to warm into the middle to upper 50s under sunny skies. A dry air mass is also in place with RH values of 20 to 30% occurring this afternoon. The driest conditions will occur across far southern Missouri and before the stronger winds occur. RH will slowly recover this evening, but with the gusty winds elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions will occur this afternoon into much of the evening hours.

The the surface low will move east into the Great Lakes region on Friday, and a cold front will move east across the area Friday morning and afternoon. The dry air mass will remain in place ahead of the front so no rain will occur just an increase in high clouds. The front will not have any impacts on temperatures, just a shift in winds as highs will warm into the 60s on Friday. Dry conditions will remain in place as RH values drop to 20 to 30% again Friday afternoon. Winds will be weakening through the day on Friday and will be on the lighter side Friday afternoon and evening.

An upper level ridge will build over the region on Saturday and southwest flow will occur. 850mb temperatures will warm into the teens on Saturday which will support highs warming into the 70s. Southerly winds could gust to 20 to 25 mph at times on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The ensemble model members are in good agreement on an upper level trough and area of surface low pressure moving across the Plains on Sunday then through the region Sunday night. Southerly winds will increase Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the front. The front will move west to east across the area Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Showers will develop along and behind the front. Instability may be limited initially but will start to develop ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening. If the front is a little slower and this instability can develop, there could be a severe risk across the area mainly east of Highway 65. If the front is a little faster, instability will remain limited across the area and the better severe will be east and southeast of the area.

Behind the front and area of surface low pressure, the pressure gradient will tighten, northerly winds will increase and be quite gusty Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with gusts of 35 to 45mph possible at times. The northerly winds will usher in a colder air mass into the area with Sunday night and Monday morning lows dropping into the teens. Precipitation will wrap around the low into the area, especially across central Missouri. As the colder air mass advects, snow will be possible Sunday evening lingering into Sunday night across central Missouri. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s and 20s. There are still some differences between the models on the exact track of the wrap around snow as some models keep the snow more to the north. There could be some minor snow accumulations especially on elevated surfaces Sunday evening and night.

Colder temperatures will occur on Monday as highs only warm into the 30s and lows drop into the teens and 20s Monday night into Tuesday morning. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of next week with much above normal temperatures expected to return.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The main aviation hazard will be low-level wind shear 50-60 kts during the overnight hours. Surface winds will be strong out of the southwest, sustained up to 20 kts and gusting up to 30 kts, through approximately sunrise. Around midday Friday, they will weaken and begin to turn clockwise before becoming light and variable by the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.