textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered light showers and drizzle tonight through Thursday morning. Most locations will receive less than half an inch of rain.

- Sustained northwest winds of 15 to 20+ mph with wind gusts up to 30 to 40+ mph on Thursday.

- Elevated to significant fire danger across extreme western Missouri and southeast Kansas Thursday afternoon.

- Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are favored this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Current satellite imagery as of 2PM shows a band of scattered mid to high level clouds continuing to make its way through southeast Missouri behind the weak shortwave trough that pushed through the area this morning. Additionally, low to mid level clouds have begun to push north into southern Missouri, with overcast skies between 2-3kft. Temperatures so far have ranged in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.

Models show an upper level trough currently deepening over the wester CONUS, which is progged to trek eastward towards the region, dragging an associated cold front through the area tomorrow morning. Coinciding with this, a 50-65kt low level jet (LLJ) looks to develop over Kansas later this evening/tonight, pushing into western Missouri by Thursday morning. This system will be the main focus through the forecast period, with the various potential impacts outlined below:

Drizzle/Light Showers Tonight into Thursday Morning: Moisture and lift will continue advecting into the area this evening as the LLJ and cold front approach the region. With "warmer" cloud tops leading to a lack of cloud ice potential, areas of patchy drizzle will be possible beginning later this afternoon/evening. The better chances look to remain south of Highway 60, however some isolated areas further north could see some drizzle later tonight. Additionally, guidance suggests anywhere up to 100-200 J/kg of mean MUCAPE as the cold front pushes through, leading to some convective precipitation potential as well. This is expected to remain in the form of isolated to scattered light showers, with accumulations less than 0.10" west of Highway 65, and between 0.10"-0.25" east of Highway 65. A few isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible, especially further east towards south- central Missouri, however no severe weather is expected for our area. The front is progged to push through the area by late morning/early afternoon, ending precipitation chances from west to east.

Gusty Winds: As the system approaches from the west, winds will begin to increase this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up, with gusts up to 25-35mph overnight. Observations already show some southwesterly gusts up to 20-25mph west of Highway 65 as of 2PM. Once the cold front pushes through in the morning, winds will shift out of the northwest, with gusts between 30-40mph through the entirety of the afternoon and evening hours before decreasing from west to east Thursday night. ECMWF shows a wind gust EFI between 0.8-0.9, highlighting potentially anomalous winds for this time of year. Debated issuing a Wind Advisory for our western two tiers of counties, however decided against it for now. Bufkit HREF momentum transfer keeps gusts below Wind Advisory Criteria, with NBM 90th percentile also keeping things right at or below criteria. It's going to be close, with ensemble probabilities of gusts >45mph ranging between 50-75% along/west of I-49. Therefore, can't fully rule out an advisory being issued with the next forecast package.

Fire Weather Concerns: Behind the frontal passage in the morning, skies are expected to clear out, with dry air filtering in. As a result, relative humidity values will begin to drop, with minimum RHs in the 35-55% range east of Hwy 65, and the 25-35% range west of Hwy 65 (lower in far southeast Kansas). The main area of concern for fire weather remains west of Highway 65, especially closer to the I-49 corridor and west. This is where the lower RHs and higher gusts are expected. HREF joint probability of RH <25% and wind speeds >20mph (Red Flag Warning criteria) continue to showcase a 50-60% probability over the western 2 tiers of counties in our forecast area. Additionally, SPC has highlighted this area in an Elevated Fire Weather Outlook, which isn't as common for our CWA, as discussed in the previous forecast. Similar to the Wind Advisory potential, confidence in Red Flag criteria being met remains too low at this time to issue any headlines, however we'll continue to monitor trends as we head into tonight/tomorrow.

Temperatures Thursday: Cold air advection will be slightly delayed behind the frontal passage, allowing afternoon highs to range in the mid to upper 50s, potentially reaching 60 once again towards the MO/AR border.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The colder airmass arrives by Thursday night as high pressure settles into the region, with overnight lows in the 20s. Winds should be settled down by this time, however some residual breezy conditions will result in wind chills dipping into the teens (primarily east of Hwy 65) and low 20s.

After afternoon highs in the 40s to low 50s on Friday, zonal flow with broad upper level ridging takes over the central CONUS, leading to dry conditions (precip. chances <10% through at least next Wednesday), and temperatures warming back up well above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the start of the TAF period, however low to mid level clouds will build in across southern Missouri this afternoon and evening, resulting in MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings.

South-southwest winds will begin to increase generally after 00Z, with gusts up to 20-30kts through the remainder of the period. By Thursday morning/afternoon, winds will shift out of the northwest behind a frontal passage.

Otherwise, patchy drizzle and isolated showers will be possible primarily after 06Z, with the higher potential between 11Z-16Z. Confidence in this affecting the terminals remains low, so continued to just include this in a PROB30 group for now.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.