textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly quiet today with increasing clouds. Low chance for an afternoon pop-up shower west of Springfield.

- Daily rain chances Thursday through the weekend. Scattered coverage and breaks may inhibit flood potential, but need to pay close attention to anywhere that receives multiple rounds of rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Weak ridging has taken hold and promises to bring us another beautiful day. Winds are very light, but southerly, slowly advecting in some warmer and more moist air. A plume of moisture from the Gulf will shoot north through Oklahoma and eastern Kansas today, allowing some high cloud cover to begin filtering in. Today will have filtered sun, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Some areas toward central MO may hit 90 today!

A few CAMs are now starting to develop some tiny summertime showers in the western portion of our area this afternoon as the shortwave approaching from the southwest and the system to our north in Iowa join forces. This isn't a super consistent signal among the CAMs, and these itty bitty showers wouldn't be very impactful. PoPs remain less than 15%. Tonight will be quiet, and cloud cover will keep lows in the mid 60s.

The shortwave arrives in earnest Thursday morning. It approaches out of the southwest, and rain will arrive there first. Precipitation starts out more stratiform with perhaps some embedded pockets of higher intensity, but into the afternoon and evening more organized cells begin to take shape with more broken pockets of energy. Cloud cover and rain bring our highs for Thursday down just a bit to around 80. Scattered showers continue overnight with warm lows in the mid-60s. There is a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thursday, as the wave swings energy up through the area several times, which may allow showers and storms to develop and move over the same areas. Soils are still very saturated, and it won't take much to see localized flooding.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Since the low is progged to pass directly over us, we get to be influenced by it for several days in a row. Rain continues into Friday, especially through the morning, before reducing in coverage for the afternoon. Temperatures remain pretty steady through Friday with good southerly flow in the upper levels helping to make up for some of the cooling with the rain. The thick cloud cover continues to keep us warm at night with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

While rain chances continue through the weekend, PoPs are not as high as the support of the wave begins to exit. For Saturday they remain less than 50% and are highest southeast of Springfield through the morning, dropping off to less than 25% by afternoon. Sunday looks remarkably similar. There is a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Friday and Saturday in addition to Thursday. Each day is capable of resulting in localized flooding, but the cumulative effect of rain each day could be worse. Totals through Sunday are maximized along the Arkansas border at 1.5-2 inches with decreasing totals to the north.

The active pattern continues into early next week with a series of upper-level shortwaves. Temperatures warm again after the departure of the initial wave. The CPC 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook has our area included in a slight risk for both extreme heat and heavy rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Winds start out light out of the southwest, then turn southeast for the evening. High clouds pass by today with a cloud deck moving into the southwest after 6Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.