textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today generally southwest of Highway 65. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main risks, with a lower risk of a tornado or two.

- Flood Watch is in effect for locations along and north of Highway 60 from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday. Bands of 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts to 6" within these heavy bands.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to slowly move across southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma into far southwestern Missouri early this afternoon. Instability weakens to the east with the better instability and weaker cap in place across Oklahoma and Arkansas. This activity will continue to move east this afternoon, and will continue to weaken in coverage and decrease as it tracks east across southern Missouri. The better lightning potential will be across the Missouri/Arkansas border but some scattered lightning will also be possible north of the border. Additional scattered showers and storms have developed across portions of central Missouri early this afternoon out east. Scattered shower and storm development will remain possible east of Highway 65 into this evening. Coverage will be limited and severe weather is not expected. The storms are moving slow, so some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms this afternoon but widespread flooding is not expected today.

Any convection should overall dissipate by the mid evening hours, but an isolated shower/storm may remain possible overnight but most locations will remain dry. The activity will decrease later this evening into tonight as the cap increases across the area and lift will be weaker between upper level disturbances.

A wave of upper level disturbances will move across the region Thursday into Friday. The cap will weaken ahead of the upper level waves which will allow bands of showers and thunderstorms to develop at times from late Thursday morning into Friday as surface low pressure moves across Kansas and a front sets up from Kansas into Central Missouri. The low level flow will be parallel to the front so training showers and storms will be possible. There are still questions on exactly where the front will setup, overall the models have trended a little further north this today's 12Z rounds however, with storms it is possible outflows push the front slightly further south than what the models are showing, will have to see exactly where the front sets up. The HREF LPMM are showing the banding potential with 2-4" of rain within the bands with locally heavier amounts up to 6" where the training can occur the longest. On the low- side, the rainfall amounts will be less with 0.25 to 1" overall. A Flood Watch has been issued from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday generally along and north of Highway 60.

There will also be the potential for some strong to severe storms on Thursday into Friday. The main risk will be damaging winds to 60 mph and the heavy rainfall and lightning. Instability will be highest during the afternoon/evenings, will weaken some overnight into Friday but enough will remain in place for storms to occur at times. Shear will be weaker during the afternoon hours but will start to increase Thursday evening and night across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. With rounds of storms, a surface cap may develop prior to the increasing shear. MUCAPE will remain in place so storms will continue but if they are more elevated that will limit the tornado potential. If storms can remain surface based and line segments can surge to the east, there could be a low conditional tornado risk across the far southwestern portions of the area Thursday evening and night.

Shower and storms will likely linger into Friday afternoon but coverage will decrease through the day. An upper level ridge will begin to push east into the Plains on Friday and another complex of storms will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning. There are still questions on the exact track of the MCS. Additional heavy rainfall and some gusty rainfall will be possible with the storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

An area of showers and storms are slowly moving east across southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma this afternoon. This activity will continue to slowly move east this afternoon, and should gradually weaken, and become more scattered in nature with time. The KJLN TAF site will likely be impacted the activity could be more scattered in nature when this activity moves into the KSGF and KBBG sites. Scattered showers and storms will also be possible across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon and evening.

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible across the area late tonight into Thursday morning.

Additional showers and storms will develop and may start to move into the area Thursday morning late in the TAF period but the better chances will be Thursday afternoon with bands continuing into Friday morning after this TAF period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Southwesterly winds will stay light under 10 knots overnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings may move in after 06z as patchy fog settles in and reduces visibilities down to under 5 SM. Fog will persist through the early morning hours and dissipate near 15z. Then, VFR ceilings return and so do southerly winds. Chances for thunderstorms move in Thursday late afternoon into the evening hours.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094.