textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) return Thursday evening into Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. There are still remaining uncertainties.

- Will have to monitor for excessive rainfall over west-central MO later this week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Surface high pressure is building over the south today which has caused the pressure gradient to tighten and led to gusty southwesterly winds near 30 mph this afternoon. High clouds will start to filter in later this evening as that high pressure system continues to push east over the southeast CONUS. We start to get better moisture return once that ridge pushes a bit further to the east tonight which will allow the low pressure system over OK/TX to usher in more moisture. This will lead to low to mid level clouds forming over us by early Wednesday morning. Though, tonight will still have lows int he upper 40s to mid 50s with the warmest temperatures occurring over the western counties as clouds start to push in from west to east. Winds will still be breezy overnight near 10 mph.

Wednesday will be partly cloudy with dewpoints about 10 degrees warmer than today, which means it'll feel more humid even though daytime high temperatures will be the same in the mid 70s. Winds will be a bit more southerly tomorrow and wind gusts won't be as strong. Expect gusts to be near 20-25 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Thursday through Monday features our pattern change. There haven't been too many changes with the SPC outlooks at this time. We still nearly miss the slight risk (2/5) that has been issued for eastern KS and NW MO. That doesn't mean we won't see thunderstorms, but it does mean that the best ingredients for severe weather to occur will likely be over the KC area once again. But, we are outlooked for severe weather somewhere in our CWA from Thursday through Monday. Most of the area can expect thunderstorms at some point almost everyday through the end of the week and into the weekend. Right now, the timing for these storms seems to be tied to how long it takes for the cold front to move through the area. Models show a few storms firing up late Thursday ahead of the front, then a wrap around cold front will bring us storms on Friday, then again overnight into Saturday. This could change as we continue through the week especially if the timing or location of the front changes.

WPC still has us in the same outlooks for flooding for the end of the week (marginal risk 1/4) and models are starting to narrow down on a small corridor of higher end rainfall totals where we currently have river flood warnings in effect which is over the Bourbon/Vernon/St. Clair county areas in our NW CWA. The Little Osage, Osage, and Marmaton Rivers all have flood warnings out at this time. The past few systems that have gone through have dropped quite a bit of rainfall over that area and the ground is quite saturated. That area could see accumulations near 3-5 inches over the next seven days with a few rounds of thunderstorms expected for the end of the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Current satellite imagery and surface observations show a layer of MVFR clouds across Oklahoma and Kansas with FEW/SCT reaching into JLN and SGF. Over the course of the night, generally after 01-03Z, these MVFR clouds will build into SGF and JLN, with a 30-40% chance that they reach to IFR levels. Highest confidence is in MVFR, so BKN015 is the prevailing group at this time. The cloud deck is then anticipated to clear (or at least become fewer in coverage) after 18-22Z.

Otherwise, winds will be south-southwesterly at 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.