textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog advisory until 9 am Saturday with areas of visibility dropping to a half mile or less across south central Missouri along and south of a frontal boundary.

- Severe weather risk over southwest sections of our forecast area with the best risk to our west and southwest late this afternoon and tonight.

- Additional severe risk late Sunday into Sunday night over the western half of the forecast area with hail and damaging wind the main severe weather risk

- Main system will push through Monday with additional severe storms. Monday appears to be the day of the sequence with the highest severe risk.

- Localized flooding may occur with training storms this weekend into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis continues to show a closed low over southern Saskatchewan with an active belt of mid and upper level energy from California into the plains and MS valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary was located from southwest to northeast across southern Missouri with areas along and south of the front starting to see fog development. Temperatures across the area were in the mid 50s to around 60 with dew points in the mid 50s.

Rest of the overnight into Saturday Night: HREF probs are showing probabilities of visibilities at or below a half mile in the 30 to 60% range overnight along the MO/AR border. Have decided to go with a dense fog advisory through 9 AM for these counties with a near zero dew point depression and nearly calm wind southeast of the front. The fog should dissipate by mid morning. Instability will begin to increase over the central and southern plains as moisture begins to stream northward into the region. Our forecast area will be on the northeastern fringes of the best instability. CAMS are showing supercells developing by the late afternoon into the evening west and southwest of the area. A few of these storms may make it into southwestern portions of the forecast area by mid to late evening but anything over our area is likely to diminish by the late evening if storms remain more scattered. If they can form more into clusters or a line, then the risk may be maintained longer into the overnight hours with mainly a wind risk.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A surface low will begin to strengthen over the plains as an upper level trough begins to eject out of the Rockies into the plains late Sunday into Sunday night. Sufficient instability and shear will exist especially over our western half of the forecast area for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind being the main severe weather risks.

The main upper wave and surface front will push through on Monday. There remains considerable timing differences with this system which will determine where the best severe weather chances will exist over the area. A slower moving system will favor severe storms across most of the area while a quicker system would favor severe storms over the eastern half of the CWA. Ample shear and instability should exist for all modes of severe storms to develop within the severe weather risk.

There will exist a localized chance of excessive rainfall in locations that receive repeat heavy rain over the weekend into Monday.

Drier weather should move in behind this system through the middle of the week with rain chances potentially moving back into the area by late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

For the 12z TAFS, still have a widespread but narrow area of dense fog along the MO/AR border counties, including BBG. Will continue with LIFR through 14z before improving visiblities. Should improve to VFR by 15-16z wtih mainly VFR conditions thereafter. Coverage of convection tonight is still in question, but confidence in anything getting to the TAF sites remains below a prob30 mention at this time so have kept out of TAFS for now.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ082- 095>098-102>106.