textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for locations along and south of a Joplin to Springfield to Salem Missouri line through 7 PM today. Heat index values around 105 to 115 degrees are expected.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for locations north of a Joplin to Springfield to Salem Missouri line through 7 PM today. Heat index values up to 105 degrees are possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southeast through portions of the area today. A few showers and storms will also be possible across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern Missouri tonight into early Wednesday.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-70%) will occur at times Wednesday through Friday, before dissipating east on Saturday. Localized heavy rainfall is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The upper level ridge has shifted slightly back to the west early this morning leaving the area more in the upper level northwest flow. An upper level disturbance is currently moving north of the upper level high across western Kansas into southern Nebraska area this morning. Areas of showers and thunderstorms have developed across portions of western Kansas into southeastern Nebraska ahead of the upper level disturbance area this morning. A weak cold front will also move south across the area the area this afternoon and evening.

The upper level disturbance will continue to move southeast and across the area later this morning into this evening. There could be some isolated showers/few rumbles of thunder that move out ahead of the main disturbance into portions of the northern and western areas early this morning but this activity will be moving out ahead of the better lift. Instability is also more limited currently across the area. The better lift is currently further to the northwest so any early morning activity should remain isolated across the area, if any at all, and it is quite possible it dissipated completely as the convection moves towards and into the area early this morning. Better forcing will occur with the disturbance later this morning into this evening. Instability will be better across far southern Missouri late this morning into this afternoon so it is possible this current activity weakens as it moves into the area but with the forcing a band of showers will remain possible, but some locations may not see much rain today. As the activity moves further south it is possible scattered storms redevelop across the south this afternoon and evening across portions of southern and south central Missouri as the disturbance moves into the slightly better area of instability today.

The hot air mass that has been over the area the last several days will remain in place across the area again today even with the frontal boundary pushing into the area later today. However, clouds and rain potential with the convection moving towards the area could keep temperatures cooler today, especially where clouds can linger through much of the peak heating period today. Where clouds moving int later in the day, or if clouds can clear early enough in the day temperatures should recover quickly. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for locations along and south of a Joplin to Springfield to Salem, Missouri line today where maximum heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees are expected. A Heat Advisory is in effect today for heat index values up to 105 degrees for locations north of the Joplin to Springfield to Salem Missouri line. Locations that see rain this morning but can see the clouds clear early enough in the day could see temperatures recover quick this afternoon/early evening especially south of the front.

The region will remain in an upper level northwest flow pattern tonight and another upper level disturbance will move through the northwest flow tonight into Wednesday. Some elevated uncapped instability is expected to develop across portions of the southern Missouri into southeastern Kansas tonight into Wednesday morning. A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from the northwest to southeast is possible tonight into Wednesday morning generally west of Highway 65 but could remain west of I-49. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible where any training of storms can occur tonight into Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Some showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across the far western portions of the area Wednesday morning but should push off to the south by the afternoon hours. The area will remain in the upper level northwest flow pattern and another area of showers and storms is expected to develop and push to the southeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The upper level ridge will continue to push slightly back to the west during this time so it is possible the activity Wednesday night remain just to the west of the area, but could again clip the far western portions of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible west of Highway 65 Thursday afternoon and evening as times.

An upper level shortwave trough will move southwest across the central Plains Thursday night an across the region on Friday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west/northwest and move across the region. Coverage will likely be better with this system as better forcing will be in place. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible Thursday night into Friday as a band of showers and storms will likely develop, the exact location the band setups will be dependent one exactly where the complex develops, but there will be the potential for it setting up over the area. There also could be the potential for some strong storms late Thursday night into Friday with damaging wind gusts the main risk with any line segments that can develop. Shower and thunderstorms will linger into Friday night ending from west to east on Saturday as the trough moves off to the east.

A cooler air mass will move into the area behind the trough on Saturday as highs in the 70s to the middle 80s are expected. Temperatures will warm back to near normal for this time of year by early next week as highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s are expected. Widespread rain chances are currently low late this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 455 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms are currently occurring from central Kansas into northwestern Missouri early this morning. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible this morning ahead of the main disturbance that will move through the area this afternoon and evening. Coverage with any morning convection will be limited and confidence in a TAF site being impacts this morning.

This afternoon into early this evening an area of scattered showers and isolated storms will push south across the area and could impact the TAF site as the upper level disturbance moves across the region. A brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible with any storm/heavier shower that can develop today.

A front will move south into the area this afternoon and evening. westerly winds will occur across the area this morning ahead of the front, with northwesterly then north to northeasterly winds behind the front this afternoon and evening. Late and variable winds are then expected tonight into Wednesday morning.

A band of scattered showers and storms will be possible again tonight into Wednesday morning generally west of Highway 65.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>081-089. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082- 083-088-090>098-101>106.