textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in mid to upper 80s approaching records.

- Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers today through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not.

- Widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Upper level ridge axis has shifted eastward and was now positioned from east TX into western Ontario. Northern stream jet was located along the northern U.S. states west of the ridge axis with a shortwave embedded in this flow tracking across southern Saskatchewan into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Polar orbiting satellite PW data showing low level moisture return to the west of the ridge across eastern OK and KS along with some elevated instability was supporting a band of light showers over eastern KS into far western MO, however low level dry air over MO was likely putting the kabash on any precipitation reaching the ground other than a few sprinkles.

Tonight: Upper ridge axis will deamplify and shift east of the area by late evening with a southwesterly low level jet setting up over the area. A dry line to the west of the area will aid in producing some strong to severe storms over western/central KS this afternoon and evening, however progression into our area looks to be low probability with fairly weak synoptic scale forcing and a decent CAP over the area. Marginal risk was removed from the area in an earlier update.

Friday: Low level moisture will continue to increase with stronger southerly flow from the Gulf. Despite a decent CAP in place, elevated MU CAPES increase during the afternoon and evening may support an isolated strong to severe storm over our northern CWA. Warm 850mb temperatures in the 17-20 deg C range will advect into the area bringing about warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s starting Friday and likely continuing through the weekend into early next week.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday: Broad southwesterly flow will set up aloft in advance of an upper level wave. A frontal boundary will remain positioned west and north of the area while a low level jet remains positioned southwest to northeast across the region. Best organized convection will remain north of the area, however can't rule out widely scattered convection, mostly in the morning across the northern CWA.

Sunday looks mostly dry with the upper trough digging further to our west. This will start to pivot and become negatively tilted across the central plains into the upper Mississippi valley region where the best severe weather chances will exist. Our precipitation chances will start to increase on Monday, especially later in the day as the frontal boundary shifts into eastern KS and western MO during the evening. With the main upper shortwave lifting northeast away from the area and west to southwest flow continuing behind the front, moisture will be quick to return by midweek in advance of the next upper wave. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday which may bring some heavy rain and the potential for some localized flooding.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mid and high level clouds will move across the area tonight and through the day on Friday. Some showers developed across south central Kansas this evening. Shower and thunderstorm development will be possible across northwestern Missouri overnight. This activity should track southeast and could clip portions of central Missouri early Friday morning, but should remain well north of the TAF sites. There is a low chance for a few light rain showers developing across portions of the area Friday morning and afternoon and maybe a rumble of thunder but coverage and chances will both be low.

Southerly winds will occur overnight and could gusts up to 20kt at times, but there will be times when winds are not as gusty overnight. South to southwesterly winds will occur Friday morning and afternoon and will increase and remain gusty. Low level wind shear will be possible overnight into Friday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023

May 16:0 KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.