textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. Elevated hail and isolated damaging winds will be the primary severe risk. - Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and night. Damaging winds will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes as secondary hazards.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the Ozarks from 1 AM tonight through 7 PM Sunday morning. Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall early Saturday into Sunday. This is due to recent rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface high pressure is overhead today and zonal flow is in place giving us a pleasant day and a break in the humidity. Highs today will reach the lower 80s and dewpoints will stay in the 50s and 60s. With the zonal flow in place, it'll allow a few shortwaves to move through overnight.

Severe Weather Analysis:

The first shortwave impulse of energy ejects off the Colorado Front Range this evening. This will trigger lee surface cyclogenesis, initiating a mass response of southerly flow across our area. This will lift the cold front from yesterday's storms back north as a warm front this evening and through tonight. Warm air advection associated with the front will provide some lift within 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of elevated 1-6 km shear. Therefore, a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms exists with the lifting warm front, especially west of Highway 65. The marginal shear will promote a low-end hail risk as storms will be elevated. Since shear is a tad on the marginal side, only a few storms may become severe, but the environment in place supporting elevated storms, straight shear vectors above the boundary layer supporting splits for any rotating storms that can develop, and a Large Hail Parameter of 4-8, will make large hail a threat. Mostly quarters to half dollar-sized hail are expected, but up to golf balls are possible in any stronger storms.

Uncertainty then exists in the evolution (and subsequent timing) of potential storms into Saturday morning, and through the day Saturday before higher confidence storms move through Saturday evening into the early overnight hours.

Scenario 1: Some HREF CAMs (particularly the HRRR/NAMNest), depict upscale growth into an MCS with these overnight storms, which would dive southeast, impacting areas east of Highway 65 very early Saturday morning (currently not in a SPC Risk, so watch for a potential expansion if this scenario becomes greater confidence). This is supported by RAP forecasts depicting high downdraft CAPE values and 50-60% MCS Maintenance Probabilities. So, this scenario seems possible (50-60% chance) if storms can punch through the nocturnal boundary layer and develop a cold pool. This would then support a damaging wind risk of up to 60 mph along the leading edge of the complex.

If this scenario occurs, remnant cold pools should be enough to keep convection at bay until Saturday evening.

Scenario 2: Other HREF CAMs (particularly the ARW/NSSL/RRFS/FV3) are not entirely robust on upscale growth of the storms overnight. This is supported by lack of synoptic ascent and the potential for storms not being able to develop a cold pool through the stable nocturnal boundary layer.

If this scenario occurs, there will not be a strong cold pool during the day. Regional models depict the Colorado shortwave to move through our area mid-day Saturday. With lift along this wave, if there is no surface cold pool, development of storms would then be posisble (40-50% chance). The environment at this time would be juiced up with HREF mean showing 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE and RAP showing up to 4500 J/kg thanks to renewed mid-70s dewpoints. This instability would be within 35-45 kts of deep- layer shear, high amounts of downdraft CAPE, strong 0-6 km wind speeds, very high Theta-E diffs of 30-35 K, and a Microburst Composite Parameter of around 10. This would all suggest a damaging wind threat of up to 75 mph gusts with any storms that form. A system and or bowing segment would be the main driver of these. Again, in this scenario, these would occur during the middle of the day to early afternoon.

Scenario 1 & 2: Regardless of which Scenario 1 or 2 develop, there is pretty high confidence (90%) in a line of storms moving through with the second, but main, shortwave and associated surface cold front during the evening and early overnight hours. As this large complex moves through, the environment will be the same as characterized in Scenario 2, leading to a damaging wind risk as the main threat. Some weak or brief spin-up tornadoes would also be possible given 25-35 kt 0-3 km shear vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to the movement/orientation of the line. Hail threat would be lower but non-zero with the MCS, especially if any embedded supercell structures can occur in the line.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Pleasant weather returns to start next week with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s which is below average for this time of year. Then, by mid-week, rain chances return to the area with a few shortwaves bringing in 30-60% chances for rain. CIPS/CSU severe weather aggregates are hinting at a chance for severe weather to occur on Thursday as a strong low pressure system moves through the area. We'll have to watch for another active pattern for the middle of next week. Daytime high temperatures slowly increase into the upper 80s once again.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A surface warm front will lift north through the region tonight with surface winds shifting to lightly southeasterly behind the front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible (20% chance) across far southern Missouri, however the limited coverage of storms precludes a mention in the Branson TAF.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected across portions of southern Missouri from late tonight into early Saturday morning as a low-level jet stream shifts into the region. We have included PROB30 groups at JLN and SGF to cover this potential scenario. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected with any storms.

We will also be monitoring the potential for fog formation north of the front, especially around BBG. We have introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities at BBG for late tonight and early Saturday morning.

Additional thunderstorm development will then be possible Saturday afternoon (20% chance). The low confidence precluded a mention of thunderstorms in the southern Missouri TAFs.

Looking ahead, there is a 60-80% chance that a line of thunderstorms will push southeast through southern Missouri Saturday evening (after 00Z). This would include the potential for 50-65 knot winds.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Many areas across western Missouri and southeast Kansas have received over 2" of rainfall and localized areas received over 6" of rain in the past 7 days. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for a widespread 2-4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts near 5 inches. For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1-2 inches of rain. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (3/4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday and overnight into Sunday primarily for areas along and north of Highway 60. This upgrade is due to the two potential MCS moving through tonight and Saturday night. The area of greatest concern within the Moderate risk is SE KS and W MO. Depending on which tracks the MCS take, that area could see the highest QPF. PWATs in that area are also the highest at over 2 inches and rivers are elevated as well. Soil moisture is between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch with 1 hr FFG of 1-2 inches. There is still a bit of discrepancy in the track of the systems over the next 24-36 hrs, but if they do train over the same area, this would lead to "locally considerable flash flooding, along with isolated moderate river flooding" per the National Water Center. Since some of this flooding may occur overnight, remember to watch for flooded roadways and low water crossings and turn around don't drown!

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>090-093>095-101>103.