textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s to around 80.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Sunday evening/night into Monday morning for portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level high situated southeast of the area, with a shortwave trough making its way across the IA/MO border overnight. With a LLJ having developed west/northwest of the area and pushing northeast, this has been the focus for some strong to severe thunderstorms over northern MO into central IL during the early morning hours. Guidance has this activity remaining north of the forecast area, however added 15% pops over the counties north of Highway 54 for the next few hours in the off-chance that this system pushes further south than guidance suggests. Most, if not all locations will remain dry.

Observations as of 2AM show temperatures ranging in the mid to upper 70s, with many locations still in the 80s. This will offer very little relief from the heat wave, as overnight lows aren't expected to get much lower. Expect temperatures to drop only a few more degrees before sunrise, with lows in the low to mid 70s along/east of Hwy 65, and the upper 70s to low 80s west of Hwy 65.

Today will be very similar to yesterday as the Extreme Heat Warning continues. 850mb temperatures support afternoon highs once again reaching the upper 90s to low 100s, with the hottest temperatures over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Heat indices will again range between 105-110, with overnight lows tonight remaining in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s, offering little to no relief.

The upper level ridge begins to flatten on Sunday, with west/northwesterly flow aloft pushing an upper level disturbance through the region. An associated surface cold front is progged to push south through the area during the day Sunday and into Monday morning, bringing the return of shower and thunderstorm chances during the afternoon/evening. Right now, the environment would support these storms being more pulse-like in nature as shear remains weak, with damaging winds as the primary hazard. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas generally around/east of Highway 65 in a Marginal Risk to account for this potential.

The heat continues on Sunday, however with midlevel temperatures slightly cooler and the cold front slowly pushing south during peak heating, areas north of Highway 60 should remain in the low to mid 90s (with highs in the upper 90s/low 100s once again along/south of Highway 60). With Heat indices again in the 105-110 range, the Extreme Heat Warning continues through Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Looking ahead to the beginning of next week, Monday will offer a slight relief from the heat as temperatures behind the front top out in the mid 80s (towards Central MO) to mid 90s (increasing further south towards the MO/AR border). There's still some uncertainty regarding any precipitation chances, as some guidance suggests upper level energy pushing through Monday morning/afternoon bringing additional chances (20-40%) for showers towards south-central MO. Additionally, NBM shows a large spread in temperatures between the 25th and 75th percentiles, leading to less confidence in afternoon highs. We'll have to see how the ridging pattern plays out, as that will determine precip chances as well as how the heat builds back up.

Once we get closer to midweek, the upper level ridge will begin to push back west of the area, bringing northwesterly flow aloft. This will lead to more seasonable temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. Southerly winds shift towards the southwest and increase after 15Z, with occasional gusts up to 20kts at KJLN and KSGF through the afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.