textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 15-55% chance of sprinkles of rain tonight into tomorrow morning, with rainfall amounts of 0.10" or less. Many locations may remain dry.

- Above average temperatures expected through the rest of the week. Temperatures Friday and Saturday expected to be at least 20 degrees above average, with highs as warm as low to mid 70s.

- Additional precip chances (50-80%) return Saturday night with another cold front pushing through the area, with precip chances continuing into early next week.

- Brief cool down to near-normal temperatures behind the cold front will only last a few days, with temperatures returning to above normal mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight: Overcast skies are helping to moderate temperatures this afternoon, with early afternoon temps just breaking into the 60s in much of the area. A cold front is advancing south across Missouri, currently located roughly across the I-70 corridor. This cold front will be the focus of the overnight period, as a shortwave aloft progresses across the region and provides additional lift for overnight rain showers.

While moisture will slightly increase with light southerly 850mb winds advecting additional juice ahead of the front, overall moisture quality will not improve very much, only reaching to ~0.95" at most tonight (compared to ~0.53" at 12Z this morning). So even though PoPs are 40-55% in central Missouri tonight, overall precip amounts are expected to be limited to a tenth of an inch or less with tonight's showers. Most areas, especially further south and west, only have a 15-40% chance of seeing any showers tonight, so rainfall will be minimal to none for most tonight. Winds are expected to increase slightly as the front pushes through, but gusts only up to 25mph are not expected to be hazardous.

Thursday: Thursday may see some lingering cloud cover in the morning, especially towards south-central Missouri, but clouds should move out by afternoon and leave the region with a pleasant, spring-like day. Highs in cloudier areas to the east of Highway 65 will only reach the low 60s, but west of Highway 65 (where sunshine will be more abundant in the morning) will be in the upper 60s. Expect overnight lows in the 30s.

Friday: Friday will be similarly pleasant to Thursday, with highs increasing into the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. A light southerly breeze with gusts up to 25 mph will add to the ambiance, as well as contribute to some localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Warmer temperatures without appreciable moisture increases will bring afternoon RHs down to 25-30%, so areas that see gusts up to 20-25 mph could see increased fire risk.

Saturday: Even warmer than Friday, highs on Saturday will be in the 70s across southern Missouri and southeast Kansas. Afternoon relative humidity values in the 30-40% range with gusts in the 20-25 mph range raise concerns for additional localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions, though certainty isn't quite as high in fire weather impacts on Saturday.

While confidence in considerably above average temperatures on Saturday is quite high, there is still some spread between NBM members on just how warm it will get. Uncertainty is highest north of Hwy 54, where temperatures will be influenced most by the timing of the weekend cold front.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Saturday night, the passage of another cold front will kick off an active stretch of weather where more appreciable precipitation totals may materialize. While a lot of uncertainty still remains with the evolution of the active pattern, timing of frontal passage and potential round(s) of showers and maybe storms, a few things stand out as more interesting/potentially impactful than others:

1. Precip chances increase to 25-50% Saturday night, peaking at 60-80% Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours, and remain above 20% through Wednesday night.

2. Colder air (20+ degree temperature drops from Saturday to Sunday) will come surging in behind the cold front, and if timing aligns properly with the diurnal cycle, there may be some freezing precip mixing in for areas north of Hwy 54 early Sunday morning, where temperatures may drop into the low 30s overnight.

3. Temperatures will quickly begin rebounding post-frontal passage, with strong ensemble agreement in a warming trend beginning middle of next week.

4. LREF members are hinting at at least a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE Monday-Wednesday, so some rumbles of thunder can be expected with next week's rounds of showers.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

High cirrus will give way to a period of MVFR ceilings on the backside of the frontal boundary making its way through the forecast area overnight. There is a subset of models that suggest even lowered ceilings to develop with saturation to occur under a low level inversion...particularly east of Highway 65. Confidence is lacking to introduce IFR along and west of Highway 65 at this time though late night/early morning aviation interests will need to monitor for these lowered ceilings.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.