textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for large portion of the area from 11am to 7pm Today. Expect gusty southwest winds up to 35-45 mph and humidity in the 20-30% range.

- Above average temperatures expected through the rest of the week and into Saturday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday could be at least 20 degrees above average (Highs in the 70s).

- There is a 30-60% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning with rainfall amounts of 0.10in or less. Additional precip chances (30-50%) return Sunday into early next week however confidence is low with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Conditions associated with the rapid spread of wildfires remains short term concern with a Red Flag Warning in effect until 7 PM. Veil of cirrus continues to limit temperatures from reaching maximum potential and has so far limited impacts...with high resolution models continuing the cirrus flow out of the northwest into this evening. Most models also support a slow climb of surface dewpoints further indicating a reduced impact of mixing drier air downward. Of concern though are surface gradient winds of 35+ mph which will fan any fire starts so caution is still advised.

Widespread sustained winds and gusts are remaining just shy of Wind Advisory criteria but this will continue to be monitored into the afternoon.

The gradient will weaken this evening into tonight as a surface high departs to the east and a weakness forms ahead of a frontal boundary which is expected to have trouble advancing southward as the upper flow flattens in between a weak high off the Baja and troughing over Eastern Canada.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Potential for showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning becomes the next forecast challenge as the front slows its progress over the forecast area. Precipital water will climb a bit from this mornings 0.25 inch to between 0.5-0.75 inch but lift remains in question as frontengentical forcing to remain north of the forecast area in stronger mid level flow. Consequently the potential for showers will be low and those that do see rain won't see much of it.

The overall upper pattern looks to remain stagnant into next week though models have different solutions with some advecting the upper ridge into the southern Plains which would raise heights and result in a warmer solution...while others maintain a cooler northwest flow pattern. There is general agreement on a shortwave of varying magnitude to enter the weather picture as early as Friday night with others offering a slower arrival time.

What the models do agree upon though is that the aforementioned front will stall south of the region limiting moisture return ahead of this wave limiting precipitation efficiency. Consequently while confidence in forecast details may be lowered, the overall expectation is for this system to have limited impacts beyond light to moderate rain showers.

Looking further out...the upper air pattern suggest a spilt flow pattern change as a closed low forms over the southwest leading to southwest flow into the central Plains early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period. LLWS will once again develop later tonight into early Wednesday...with the most pronounced impact along and east of Highway 65 including the SGF and BBG airports.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ097-101. MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ068>071- 077>082-088>097-101>105.