textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Light showers and drizzle move through the area this morning. Most locations will receive less than half an inch of rain.

- Sustained northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for locations along and west of the I-49 corridor.

- Elevated to Significant fire danger across western Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for locations along and west of the I-49 corridor.

- Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are favored this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Synoptic Overview:

A dynamic upper-level trough was digging through the northern Plains and Midwest early this morning. Just ahead of it, upper- air analysis suggests perhaps a weaker secondary impulse exists. At the surface, a cold front was draped over central Kansas barreling to the east.

Light Rain and Drizzle this Morning:

Radar returns and surface obs show a swath of moderate to heavy drizzle moving through southern Missouri early this morning with more patchy activity to the southeast. This drizzle will be supplanted by more showery activity as the cold front approaches southern Missouri. RAP output and other forecast soundings indicate cloud ice increasing this morning along with around 100 to 200 J/kg of MUCAPE. Lightning potential is extremely limited but non-zero (NBM probabilities are generally 10% or less). CAMs show these showers becoming more widespread as the front passes east of the I-49 corridor this morning. Rates will generally be light, but brief periods of more moderate rain may occur as the showers move into eastern Missouri where moisture content is slightly better. Precipitation chances end from west to east throughout the morning and early afternoon. Forecast rain totals remain on track; a tenth to four tenths of an inch east of Springfield, and nothing to a tenth west of Springfield.

Windy:

Southerly winds have already been somewhat elevated since yesterday evening with observations showing gusts generally between 25 and 35 mph. Winds are expected to increase throughout the morning as the front approaches and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Behind the front, forecast soundings show deep mixing occurring underneath an impressive 40-45 kt low- level jet, particularly across far western Missouri and southeast Kansas. This mixing will help transport the higher momentum flow down to the surface and likely increase winds further. While gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common, 00Z HREF probabilities of gusts greater than 45 mph are medium to high (50 to 90%). Thus, we have issued a Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM for extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, generally along and west of the I-49 corridor.

Elsewhere, winds will still be quite breezy (gusts of 30 to 35 mph), but less mixing may reduce the higher-end potential. To complicate the matter, however, will be a second shot of cold air advection that penetrates southward this evening which will help keep winds elevated as the boundary layer decouples from the flow aloft. Therefore, we have kept breezy winds across the eastern Ozarks even after sunset when mixing ceases.

Fire Danger:

As mentioned above, the primary cold front looks to clear our west by mid-morning and our entire forecast area by early afternoon. This front will usher in a much drier airmass behind it. Point forecast soundings across western Missouri and eastern Kansas depict a classic inverted v-shaped temperature and dewpoint profile, indicating a well mixed airmass. There is also decent model consensus in mixing heights reaching around 7000 ft in the afternoon, which is pretty high for this time of year. Furthermore, these locations are expected to receive little to no precipitation this morning, which should keep fuels dry. To that end, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained and even expanded their Elevated fire weather risk today. For reference, our forecast area averages just one to two of these outlooks a year.

Forecasting dewpoints and relative humidities can be quite difficult in transition regimes such as today as they can often be "boom or bust" scenarios, but we have decided to err on the dry side of model guidance to account for the robust mixing potential. This adjustment puts forecast minimum RH values in the 20 to 25% range across extreme western Missouri and southeast Kansas. In combination with the breezy winds and dry fuels, we have issued a Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM for these locations (the same locations as the Wind Advisory). It is possible a short-fused eastward expansion is needed if the front clears the area a bit faster than currently forecast, but for now we have stuck with the area of highest confidence for headline issuance.

Brief Cold Tonight:

Temperatures will drop into the 20s areawide tonight. With the lingering elevated winds, wind chills in the low teens are forecast, particularly for locations east of Springfield.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The long term forecast will be marked by dry conditions with near to well above average temperatures. The cold shot tonight will be short-lived as upper-level heights transition to a more zonal pattern. This setup will support seasonable temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Ensemble guidance is and has been consistent in showing that this quasi-zonal pattern will persist through the weekend before giving way to broad upper-level ridging across much of the CONUS next week. There is high confidence then that temperatures will be well above average through next week. For context, average high temperatures for this time of year are in the 41 to 46 degree range. While we don't typically like to discuss deterministic temperature forecasts seven days out due to forecast uncertainty, the NBM 25th percentile high temperature for Springfield on Christmas Eve is 66 degrees. The 75th percentile? 72 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Drizzle and light showers will move through southern Missouri this morning, bringing widespread MVFR and isolated IFR conditions. Gusty south-southwest will shift to the northwest as a cold front passes through the area this morning. Winds will remain elevated through the afternoon, gusting to 30 to 40 kt at times. Skies will clear behind the front, though some scattered low to mid-level clouds may sink into central Missouri this afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-101. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.