textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this afternoon. Additional scattered showers/storms possible overnight. No severe weather expected.

- Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue. Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible south of Interstate 44.

- Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows an upper level trough/jet streak over the Rockies with another more compact shortwave working through the area. An 850mb front was located from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. The surface cold front was currently located just west of Springfield with temps in the 50s to around 60 behind it with lower to middle 60s ahead of the front. The airmass was becoming increasingly stable over the area with MU CAPE now less than 1000j/kg. However there was a corridor of slightly higher MU CAPE centered more along the 850mb front. The widespread area of showers and storms has now shifted to the areas east of Highway 65. Residual flooding continues across locations north of Springfield where heavy rainfall occurred.

Rain Chances Through Wednesday and cooler temps: The afternoon batch of showers and isolated storms will continue to move east/southeast with a brief break/lull this evening. However, overnight (mainly after midnight) there is an increasing signal that light showers or perhaps an isolated storm will develop over the area along the corridor of the 850mb front. A low level jet and continued placement of the right entrance region of the upper level jet will also aid in the development of this scattered activity. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall amounts will likely remain light enough to limit any renewed flooding. Temperatures should slowly decrease into the 50s.

Weak mid level ridging should allow for a decreasing trend in precip chances through the day. Northeast winds and mostly cloudy conditions should keep temps cool with most locations staying in the 60s. There could even be a few locations north of Springfield that struggle to even reach 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Additional Rain Chances Late Week and Weekend: Ensemble data shows a rather unsettled pattern Thursday onward. From a synoptic perspective, the pattern favors shortwave energy moving through the area every few days given the southwest flow aloft. One such wave looks to move into the area late Thursday into Friday. Precip chances have increased into the 60-80% range as a shield of showers and storms looks to move through the area from the southwest. Looking at instability, latest ensemble probs for CAPE greater than 500j/kg is highest on Friday. Latest probs for precip greater than 0.5in is around 60%. Therefore we will need to monitor the location of the heaviest rainfall. The WPC has highlighted portions of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

Additional shortwaves look to rotate through the area this weekend. Confidence is low on exact timing of each wave and subsequent hazards however rain chances are in the 30-50% range at times this weekend. A gradual warming trend should occur this weekend with the potential for highs to reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms was moving through southern Missouri. The chance of thunderstorms will decrease through the afternoon however rain chances remain high. The chance of rain will also return overnight. A front is moving the area and has already moved into JLN. The front will move through SGF and BBG this afternoon and will switch the winds to the northwest. North to northwest winds will then continue through Wednesday. Behind the front, cloud ceilings drop quickly into IFR with some LIFR. Confidence is high that ceilings will drop below 1kft this afternoon, lasting through tonight. Ceilings may drop down to 500 ft at times and additional updates are likely. Lastly, visibilities may drop closer to 4-5 miles at times in the rain showers.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.