textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning across portions of southeast KS, southwest MO, and into central MO through Friday. Daily heat index values around 105. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory is in effect for daily heat index values around 100 to 104.

- Mostly dry conditions are now expected through the end of the week and weekend.

- Confidence is increasing in the extension of heat headlines through the the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This Afternoon - Tonight: A ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen and is well- established across portions of the central CONUS. 850mb temperatures around 23 to 26 C correlate to surface temperatures into the middle to upper 90s, with some 100s into southeast KS and far southwest MO. Similar to previous days, cloud cover has been minimal with a highly scattered cumulus field. Meanwhile, dewpoints into the upper 60s to lower 70s support heat index values ranging from 100 to 105+ degrees. While some mixing has occurred daily in the afternoon's, the area has still been enveloped in extreme heat this week. South- southwest winds continue to persist in this pattern, with occasional afternoon wind gusts approach 20 to 25 mph. For tonight, minimal overnight relief is expected with lows in middle/upper 70s to around 80. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect north and west of Springfield, with a Heat Advisory elsewhere.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Wednesday - Monday: As we progress through mid-week, ensemble guidance highlights a slight dip in the jet stream. The trends over the last few days remain intact, with PoPs being suppressed north of the area. The highest chances (10-15%) nudge into portions of central MO on Wednesday and Thursday, though confidence is low. A closer look at the latest RRFS, REFS, and HREF suggest an isolated shower or thunderstorm clipping the area, though the majority of the guidance keeps it further north.

Otherwise, the storyline remains extreme heat persisting through late week and this weekend. NBM interquartile spreads on max high temperatures remain around 2 to 3 degrees in the upper 90s to near 100. Accompanied by dewpoints around 70, maximum daily heat index values are forecast to be around around 100 to 105+. This introduces the question, how extreme is this heat from a climatological stance. While the area is no stranger to heat waves in the Summer, the duration of the heat over several days can compound the impacts. NWS HeatRisk captures this potential with widespread Major to Extreme heat risk through the upcoming weekend. This will put a strain on heat sensitives groups. The heat headlines have been extended through Friday evening at the moment, with increasing confidence in the need for an additional extension beyond Friday.

Furthermore, the extreme heat has began to dry out soils across the area. CPC highlights portions of southeast KS and southern MO as an area vulnerable to rapid onset drought. This is similar to "flash" droughts we have seen in past Summer's, where heat waves coincidences with minimal rain. Furthermore, CPC depicts a high risk for hazardous temperatures in the 8 to 14 day outlook (August 18-24). This further increases confidence in prolonged heat through mid-August. The remaining uncertainty is on the extent of heat as we get into early next week as ensemble guidance suggests another dip in the jet stream and slightly cooler temperatures. There is a scenario where we see a wide variance in temperatures from north to south across the area. Check back for more details.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight through the day on Wednesday. Gusty winds will develop again Wednesday morning and afternoon out of the south to southwest.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058- 066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ070-071-081>083- 090>092-095>098-102>106.