textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect through Thursday as daily heat indices climb to around 100 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- An overall drier pattern will accompany the heat this week with only low-end rain chances by Thursday and Friday.

- The Climate Prediction Center outlines the area in a Moderate Risk (40-60% chance) for the excessive heat to continue through the Fourth of July weekend. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Satellite imagery shows the much-anticipated ridge building over the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon with just some fair- weather cumulus across southern and western Missouri. At the surface, a lee-low in the High Plains is contributing to a tightened pressure gradient across southeast Kansas and western Missouri.

Warm and Breezy Today:

Solar insolation and warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s today. With dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will approach or even slightly exceed the 100 degree mark. A Heat Advisory is in effect areawide today.

The enhanced pressure gradient has and will continue to produce breezy south-southwest winds today. The strongest winds will be across our southeast Kansas counties and far western Missouri, where gusts of 30 to 35 mph will occur.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Hot, Humid, and Dry Pattern through the Week:

Global ensembles continue to demonstrate strong agreement in locking us into a stagnant upper-level pattern through the week with a prominent ridge across the eastern half of the CONUS. This will keep conditions hot, humid, and mostly precipitation-free across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. NBM 25th-75th percentile temperature spreads remain unusually small (2-3 degrees) through the entire week, indicating high forecast confidence. While NAEFS and GEFS ensemble situational awareness tables and the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index do not suggest record- breaking heat is likely, daily heat indices around 100 degrees will bring about prolonged hot conditions, and overnight lows in the 70s along with continued humid conditions will provide little relief from the heat. These numbers, coupled with the fact that this week will be the first prolonged heat of the year, have warranted the continuation of the Heat Advisory through at least Thursday. In fact, the NWS HeatRisk product-- which accounts for both the duration of the heat and nighttime temperatures-- indicates an increasing areal extent of the Major risk category (level 3 of 4) through the week. Likewise, forecast Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)--which accounts for heat stress for active individuals out in the sun-- also sees an uptick throughout the week.

Furthermore, the Climate Prediction Center's extended hazards outlook outlines the entire area in a Moderate Risk (40-60% chance) for this excessive heat to continue through the Fourth of July weekend. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

The ridge will keep precipitation chances to a minimum throughout the week. However, with a humid airmass in place, the possibility of pulse convection cannot be ruled out. The relative highest precipitation chances are currently on Thursday and Friday, where 15-20% chances exist.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy south-southwest will persist across southwest Missouri into Monday, with frequent gusts between 20-30 kt. Have also added a mention of LLWS into the TAFs as the low-level jet lurches east after 05Z tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.