textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms for areas along and north of I-44 on Tuesday evening. Main threat will be quarter sized hail, 60 mph damaging winds, and a low-end tornado threat that covers all of SE KS, areas as far south as Jasper co, and as far east as Stockton Lake. - Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

- There's a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure settles in for the next couple of days. Today will be a pleasant and sunny day with light winds and highs in the mid 70s. Tonight will feature clear skies and lows in the 50s. Southwesterly flow returns on Tuesday and moisture begins to return to the area. Skies will be sunny with high temperatures in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A cold front is forecast to move through Tuesday evening into Wednesday and will bring us our next chance for shower and thunderstorms. SPC currently has areas along and north of I-44 in a Marginal risk (1/4) for severe weather. Those areas along and north of I-44 are forecast to have the better moisture with dewpoints in the 50s and the best set up for severe weather. Though, there is some uncertainty as far as instability and how the low-level convergence plays out ahead of the front. Right now, all hazards are possible especially with any supercells that develop near the front.

Mid- level lapse rates rates will be near 7.5-8 C/km over SE KS/SW MO with 0-6 km bulk shear at 45-55 kts. Models differ on the MLCAPE values a bit, but there could be anywhere between 700-1500 J/kg. Large hail parameter shows the highest values over SE KS/SW MO in the 5-6 range which would equate to ping pong to golf ball sized hail. There's also a tornado outlook that encompasses all of our SE KS counties and goes as far south as Jasper co and as far east as Stockton Lake. The 0-1 km helicity (120-150 m2/s2) is best over those areas as well. As the front pushes further southeast, severe weather may still occur, but the ingredients don't line up as well as they do over SE KS/SW MO. That area could be upgraded to a higher risk due to the tornado threat as we get closer to the event, we'll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, areas under the Marginal risk should monitor the forecast over the next couple of days.

The cold front will bring down our dewpoints and flip our winds out of the northeast, but it won't really impact our temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will still be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds turn southerly by Thursday and dewpoints start to increase for the end of the week. Highs will creep into the mid 80s by Friday and dewpoints reach the mid 60s as well. This will make it feel hot and humid for the end of the week into next weekend. There are also a few chances for rain this weekend as a surface low begins to slowly work its way towards us, traversing over the Southern Plains. Right now, there's a 20-40% chance for rain across the entire area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. Also should note, if the clouds are thick enough with those rain chances, we may be a couple of degrees cooler than forecasted this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR through the period with variable winds through today and tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.