textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday. Highs near 100 with Heat Index values 100-105 can be expected. Daily records may continue to be tied or broken. - Less than 20% chance for isolated showers and storms this afternoon, particularly across the eastern Ozarks and south- central Missouri.

- Cooler conditions with scattered rain chances arrive early next week. Details on the exact extent of the cooldown and location of the highest rain chances remain uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Despite being firmly into "fall" by now, the summer weather pattern continues. High pressure dominates with shortwave energy riding the ridge across the Rockies and central Plains. For the Ozarks region, this really just means continued heat. Highs in the mid 90s to near 100 again today with Heat Index values up to around 105. The Heat Advisory remains in effect until tomorrow evening area-wide.

We'll see a repeat of pulse thunderstorm potential this afternoon once again as a stalled front focuses moisture, instability, and lift across Missouri. The greatest collocation of these ingredients will be farther northeast, again as we have seen the last couple of days. For southwest Missouri, CAMs indicate very small, transient pulse storms. HRRR hourly gusts show very limited potential for wind gusts up to 40 mph with this activity. The Ozarks Pulse Thunderstorm Index has very little if any output in the SGF CWA.

Thunderstorms rain themselves out and stabilize the atmosphere by sunset. Lows are still very warm in the 60s for most, though south- central MO could be a few degrees cooler as convective cloud cover may prevent those areas from heating quite as much during the afternoon. Dewpoints will be a bit lower Saturday, so Heat Index values may be a few degrees cooler with perhaps fewer areas breaking 100 degrees. Highs themselves still in the upper 90s to near 100. With a slightly drier, more stable airmass, afternoon thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Still in the upper 60s to low 70s for lows Saturday night, though the much anticipated cold front creeps ever closer. By the early morning hours Sunday, PoPs in west-central Missouri climb to 30-50%. The front looks to move quite slowly throughout Sunday into Monday, allowing highs for much of the area Sunday to still reach the upper 90s, especially in central Missouri. An extension of the Heat Advisory for some of these areas may be warranted, though farther north highs may "only" reach the mid-90s depending on the speed of the front.

The NBM has increased precipitation chances as the front moves through, with PoPs up to 60% reaching the I-44 corridor by Monday morning and 50-70% chances in south-central Missouri by the afternoon. However, there is considerable spread in NBM members at this range. There is a nearly ten degree interquartile spread in high temperatures Monday, ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s in Springfield, for example. These large spreads continue for the rest of the week, though the entire distribution lies in the 70s for Springfield Tuesday, which is encouraging.

Rain comes to an end Monday night. Deterministic rainfall totals show a gradient of about 0.75" in west-central Missouri down to less than a tenth of an inch in south-central Missouri. Totals are about 0.4 to 0.2 from west to east along the I-44 corridor. The probability of >0.50" ranges from about 50% at Truman State Park to about 20% in West Plains.

Highs Tuesday through Thursday look to be largely below 80 degrees, but again, there is very little confidence at this range. A few days ago, highs Monday looked much lower and have only warmed the closer we get, so it is best to temper our expectations for now. Still a slight lean toward wet and warm for the 8-14 day outlook, but no indication away from normal one day or the other for 3-4 weeks out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light SSW winds. Mostly clear skies with some summertime Cu this afternoon. Less than 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Ozarks this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 18: KSGF: 95/2019 KJLN: 97/2022 KVIH: 95/1953 KUNO: 96/1972

September 19: KSGF: 96/1954 KJLN: 99/2024 KUNO: 97/1954

September 20: KSGF: 97/1954 KVIH: 95/1954 KUNO: 97/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 18: KSGF: 74/1931

September 19: KSGF: 73/1931

September 20: KSGF: 74/2018

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.