textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Tuesday evening for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 105+. A Heat Advisory is in effect Today for the Highway 65 corridor and Lake of the Ozarks for heat index values of 100-105.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely Today and Wednesday with highs in the 90s to around 100. Additional heat headlines may be warranted Wednesday.

- There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday and includes a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall which could lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the center of a mid level ridge across Kansas and Oklahoma. The 00z KSGF sounding continues to show a fairly moist airmass aloft with a PW value of 1.82inches. A decent surface moisture gradient has set up over the area with dews in the middle 50s east of Springfield with lower to middle 60s west. Temps however remain quite mild with many areas in the middle 70s to lower 80s with the exception across the eastern ozarks. Surface low pressure across the lee of the rockies has set up a pressure gradient which has allowed for steady southeast winds across the area which is likely aiding in the warmer temps. The area of higher surface moisture seems to be tied to a stationary frontal zone across northeast Oklahoma into eastern Kansas.

Hot and Dry Today: Temperatures today will be similar or perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday as the center of the mid level ridge remains close to the area. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s will be common across most of the area which will likely challenge records. The zone of higher dewpoints looks to advect/spread a little further east during the day. This will allow for peak heat indicies to reach the 100-107 degree range with the highest indicies west of Springfield. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect west of Springfield. We have issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties along Highway 65 and in the Lake of the Ozarks region. This is due to an increase in the potential for heat indicies to reach 100-105. The NWS Heat Risk tool also shows the potential for major to extreme impacts across most of the warning and advisory area. This is likely due to the near record breaking temperatures and very warm overnight lows for early September. Those sensitive to the heat will need to take proper precautions today.

There is a 10-20% chance for an isolated pop up storm or two along and just west of the Highway 65 corridor. Several CAMS are showing this potential however given the weak forcing/warm air aloft, we think coverage will remain very low. Most locations will remain dry. Those that do see a shower or storm could briefly see a 30-40mph downburst given the high moisture content aloft.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Hot Temperatures Wednesday: Shortwave energy will move through the northern plains during the day. This will begin to suppress the ridge south. However before it completely does, one final day of extreme heat may occur. A frontal boundary will begin to move into the area from the north during the afternoon. Ahead of this front, winds will begin turning more southwesterly and then westerly. Similar setups to this in the past have allowed for hot temps and increased dew points (moisture pooling). While clouds and precip chances do make things uncertain (more on that below), confidence is increasing that temps may be able to make it to the upper 90s to low 100s early enough in the day to allow for heat indicies to again reach 100-107, perhaps even further east than today. This would likely require an extension/expansion of heat headlines in future updates.

Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday - Thursday: As mentioned above, a frontal boundary will be moving south into the area during the afternoon and further into the area during the evening. While mean ML CAPES look to be around 2000j/kg, wind shear will generally be marginal (25-30kts). With the mean flow being parallel to the front, scattered storms may form along or perhaps just behind the front. Any storms that can become more organized will have the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail however widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.

Coverage of showers and storms will likely increase from north to south during the evening and overnight hours with high precip chances, which is welcome due to the drought. However, mean PW values around 2.0inches and convective elements could allow for rainfall rates to be high enough for some localized flooding. Latest REFS guidance suggests that higher potential for this would be along and north of the Highway 54 corridor with localized pockets of 2-4 inches. Most locations do have a 70-90% chance of seeing at least 0.50 inch of rain with the highest amounts expected north of Interstate 44. Showers and thunderstorms could linger through the day on Thursday as the area remains in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Widespread clouds behind the front looks to keep temps in the 80s on Thursday which would be welcome from the previous days extreme heat.

Late Week/Weekend Rain Chances/Temps: Additional disturbances look to move through the area on a daily basis into and through the weekend. This features a rather pessimistic precip chance forecast (20-50%) as we will have to pin down each daily disturbance. Expect additional pop changes/modifications with future updates. NBM temp spreads have shrunk some which leads to higher confidence that temps will remain closer to average.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with afternoon and evening cumulus. There is a low chance (20%) of a shower or storm in the afternoon but most places will be dry and coverage is too low to include in the TAF. Winds will be out of the southeast this morning and then south with steady speeds around 10kts. There could be brief periods where gusts reach 15-18kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KVIH: 100/1901 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

September 12: KJLN: 97/1956

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 8: KSGF: 76/1925

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

September 10: KSGF: 74/1938

September 13: KSGF: 75/1936

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066- 067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>057-068-069-079-080-090-095-104.