textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through the week. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Halloween weekend may be a wet one, with rain chances 40-60% Friday night through Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Satellite imagery nicely depicts the current upper-level pattern, with clear skies over the southeast where ridging dominates, increasing cloud cover over the Ozarks as a shortwave nudges into the area from the west, and more dynamic low pressure swirling over the northern Rockies. The cloud cover is still pretty high in altitude, so it is not affecting our low temperatures much, and we still expect to cool into the mid 40s (eastern Ozarks) to mid 50s (north and west of Springfield) by sunrise.

Heights are lowering as the shortwave pushes in. Increasing cloud cover will help temper insolation, though south winds and therefor WAA increases ever so slightly. All of this together will add up to highs a few degrees cooler today, in the low to mid 70s. This is still 10-15 degrees above normal for late October, but at least it won't be the 80 degrees we have seen for several days.

The approaching shortwave has already begun forcing rain along a corridor from central Oklahoma up through Kansas into SE Nebraska and SW Iowa. This is coincident with the stream of best moisture return ahead of the forcing. As the trough lifts northeast throughout the day today, scattered rain showers will be possible primarily north of I-44, with chances best farther west (though PoPs generally do not exceed 10-15%). The precipitation, if it materializes, will be so light and sparse that it is really only detectable on model reflectivity composites rather than hourly modeled reflectivity, such as the 4-hour REFS max reflectivity. Dense cloud cover will gradually lower throughout the day, and a saturated layer aloft with enough forcing will make these scattered showers possible, but only for a select few. Most will stay dry today.

Clouds begin to clear out overnight, but stronger WAA just off the surface will keep overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s north and west of the Plateau. Areas in the eastern Ozarks can expect lows in the upper 40s to near 50 as they have been. Highs soar to near 80 again on Wednesday as southwest flow takes hold once again. Skies clear out, becoming mostly sunny. Lows Wednesday may break 60 degrees in the western Ozarks, and will be closer to 50 in the east.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Stronger southwest flow and sunny skies to start the day will allow highs Thursday to reach the lower 80s, our warmest day of the week. The front sags south out of northern Missouri Thursday, and precip chances will return to central Missouri. This could impact the northern fringes of the area, but is unlikely.

Friday looks to be the beginning of the end for this unseasonable synoptic ridge. A deeper low approaches, finally beginning the breakdown of high pressure, and bringing widespread rain chances that begin to move into the western portions of the area by Friday evening. Peak PoPs currently line up throughout Saturday morning and early afternoon, 50-60% area-wide. Some models begin to taper the intensity and coverage by trick-or-treating hours while others show widespread rain continuing into the evening. Though there remains uncertainty on the details at this lead time, it is safe to say that it may still be raining in some areas and will be gloomy/damp for most.

The silver lining is that this pattern change is not being brought about by a front, and the temperature of the airmass is not expected to drastically change. Cloud cover and rainfall get us down closer to 70 for the daytime high, but lows remain in the mid-50s. More troughing and shortwaves are progged to follow throughout the weekend, with long range models showing the potential for a proper frontal passage complete with seasonal temperatures in the first week of November. Fingers crossed!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. SSE winds continue, with gusts remaining below 15 kts. Broken mid- to high-level clouds will begin to disband after 00Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.