textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. All modes of severe storms will be possible with the main risks being large hail and damaging wind.

- Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail.

- Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show deep southwesterly flow aloft from west Texas into New England. Upper low was located over Nebraska with a trough extending southwest of the low into New Mexico with another low entering the Pacific northwest. Surface front was shifting out of central KS into eastern KS where surface based CAPES were in the 3500-4000 j/kg and no CIN was residing. The morning convection and low clouds have kept some CIN values around 50-100 j/kg in the eastern half of the CWA, but this was slowly eroding and better CAPES were spreading east into the area. 0-6km shear values were around 50kts out of the southwest. Still getting some scattered showers/storms over our eastern CWA with the remnants of this mornings activity.

Severe weather this afternoon / tonight: Expecting convection to develop along/ahead of cold front/dryline in eastern KS/OK within the band of higher instability. This activity is expected to initiaite slightly west of the CWA with some discrete supercells possible which would include all modes of severe storms. As the upper wave and surface front shift east by late afternoon and early evening, storms may form into clusters or qlcs segments. Damaging wind and an embedded tornado risk will be the main severe weather risks this evening as the qlcs shifts east. While there is some timing differences in the CAMS, the main area of convection should exit the eastern CWA between midnight and 3 am.

Thursday/Thursday night: Instability is expected to increase during the afternoon in the wake of any residual precipitation from the today/tonights shortwave. A secondary shortwave is then expected to move through the area during the afternoon and early evening with some of the CAMS generating additional convection over the eastern Ozarks. We are currently in a marginal risk(1 of 5) for this activity, in which the main risk would be with large hail. Anything that develops should move out of the area by the early evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Severe weather chances late Friday into Saturday morning: The upper level wave currently entering the Pacific northwest will continue to track east and into the plains during the day on Friday. A strong upper level jet out of the southwest will be southeast of the trough and move into the area late in the day. strong southerly winds in the lower levels will advect Gulf moisture into the area during the day. With temperatures and moisture increasing in the low levels, instability will increase ahead of an eastward moving dry line/cold front which will begin to push into the area during the late afternoon or early evening. Discrete supercells are expected to develop ahead of a dryline over the central/southern plains and dryline. As the upper wave shifts eastward, the cold front will overtake the dryline and storms should begin to form into a qlcs with damaging wind and spin-up tornado risks becoming the more predominant severe weather risks. The storms and front will continue to track east across the CWA during the night and potentially into Saturday morning before ending. This upper wave will finally end our persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft with drier air moving in behind the wave and surface front for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

For the 18z TAFS, surface based CAPES starting to increase to our west and should creep in here throughout the afternoon. Could see storm initiation ahead of a dryline towards the onset of the 18z TAFS to the west of the CWA, however some scattered activity will be possible over the area before that main area moves in. Have gone with prob30s until late afternoon and then a predominant TSRA with heavier rain between 23z and 02z as the main line moves through. Expecting MVFR conditions with brief periods of IFR within the stronger convection. Things should clear east of the TAF sites by 03-04z. May get some stratus in here overnight towards morning, especially at the BBG site.

CLIMATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 16: KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

April 16: KSGF: 66/1963

April 17: KSGF: 66/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.