textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will move east into extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning and push east through the morning hours. There could be a few strong to severe storms with hail to the size of quarters and localized damaging wind risk. - A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon, additional storms will develop along the front, mainly along and southeast of I-44. Strong to severe storms will occur again with hail and isolated damaging winds gusts the main risks.

- A band of heavy rainfall will be possible along and southeast of I-44 today into Thursday morning, and could lead to localized flooding where locations receive the heaviest rain.

- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be be possible from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There will the potential for hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds and a tornado risk with this activity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A front is located across the area generally along I-44. The front will primarily remain located here, shifting slightly north to south at times, through the morning hours. Then this afternoon and evening a cold front will move southeast across the area and into northwest Arkansas into south central by this evening, before stalling from west to east across southern Missouri/northern Arkansas tonight into Thursday morning. the front will then lift north through the area on to the north Thursday afternoon.

A few showers and storms will be possible the next few hours, but most locations will remain dry. An upper level trough is moving east into the plains early this morning. Storms are developing across northwestern Texas currently. Storms will continue to develop and expand in coverage and push east this morning and into extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri early this morning then to the east this morning mainly along and south of the stalled front. Instability will be strongest to the west of Highway 65 and some hail to the size of quarters will occur with this cluster of storms that move into the area. There also could be some line segments and there will be a scattered damaging wind risk with the line segments.

Instability will increase south of the front this afternoon and evening ahead of the upper level trough and a cold front. There will be the potential for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with hail the main risk. There will be weak low level shear and low level cape will not be overly strong therefore the tornado risk will be low but with the front stalled across the area and multiple rounds of storms some boundary interactions could risk in a low (2%) brief weak tornado risk.

The front will stall across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri tonight into Thursday morning. Rounds of showers and storms will continue to develop and move across the area along and north of the front through this period. Most of this activity will be sub severe but a few stronger storms with hail the risk will be possible tonight into Thursday morning. With multiple round of rain moving across the area there will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The HREF LPMM precipitation amounts show the potential for a narrow band of 3-5" of rainfall today into Thursday morning along and south of I-44. This will be possible if/where training of storms can occur. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today into Thursday morning for location south of I-44 where localized flash flooding will be possible under the band of heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the 70s on Thursday afternoon as the front lifts off to the north of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An stronger upper level trough will dig into the southwestern U.S. on Thursday and will move into the plains on Friday and across the region on Saturday. Warm air mass will be in place as highs will warm into the 70s. An area of surface low pressure will move northeast into the central Plains on Friday and dry line will move east across central and eastern Kansas Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, likely in the form of supercells, will develop and move northeast a head of the dry line Friday afternoon and evening. These storms could move into locations mainly along and west of I-49. Deep layer and low level shear will increase across the region with the approach of the trough. Modest MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will develop with around 100 J/kg. There will be the potential for large hail to the size of golf balls and isolated damaging winds, with the low level shear and low level cap there will also be a tornado risk. As the upper level trough moves east a cold front will sweep east and a overtake the dry line and move across the area Friday night. A line of storms will develop long front and move east across the region. Damaging winds will occur with the line with some scattered hail to the size of quarters west of Highway 65 where better instability will be in place. Instability will gradually weaken east of Highway 65 early Satruday morning, the hail risk will decrease but enough instability will remain in place for at least a scattered damaging wind risk with the line of storms until it move east of the area. Low level cap and shear will support a spin up tornado risk within the line.

The front will move south of the area on Saturday, some showers could linger across south central MO behind the front Satruday morning morning before moving south during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler conditions will occur this weekend behind the front with highs in the 60s, some locations may remain in the 50s across the northern portions of the area on Saturday.

The warm front will lift north through region early next week when highs warming into the 70s again. Another system move through the region during the middle of the week bringing additional rain chances to the area. There remains differences between the model members on the exact track and timing of this system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 438 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A front is located over the area and will remain over the area this morning then move south this afternoon and evening and back to the north tonight into Thursday. Winds will generally be light and variable through the TAF period.

Some patchy fog will be possible early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will move into and through the area this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur at times this afternoon into this evening. Some light rain or drizzle will be possible into tonight. IFR ceilings will develop across the area this morning, may improve briefing this afternoon then return this evening and tonight. Gusty winds and hail will be possible with the strongest storms today.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Although some locations received more than 1" of rainfall this past week, it was not enough to overcome long-term precipitation deficits across the area. Abnormally dry soils continue to persist across the CWA. The latest drought monitor shows abnormally dry (north) to severe and extreme drought (south) affecting the region. USGS streamgages indicate streamflow is running below normal to much below normal across many area waterways. With dry antecedent conditions prevailing, official forecasts for our river forecast points do not indicate flooding occuring. Keep in mind, official forecasts only utilize 24-48 hours of QPF so any rainfall forecast beyond that time window will not be reflected in the official river forecasts.

Looking at longer range (10 day), probabilistic HEFS forecasts for our river forecast points show the most likely outcome (50th percentile) indicates flows increasing, however, none are expected to reach flood stage. If more extreme QPF amounts materialize the 10% chance flow scenarios do indicate a number of river forecast locations reaching flood stage. The most recent Flood Hazard Outlook indicates that there is a limited chance for flash, urban, and river flooding later this week into next week.

The WPC Excessive Rain Outlook indicates a Slight Risk for excessive rain Today and a Maringal Risk on Fri/Sat across at least portions of the region. Flash Flood Guidance across the area ranges from 1.5"-2" (1 hour) to 2.5"- 3" (6 hour). If these thresholds are exceeded localized flash flooding may occur. Although, at this time, it does not appear that widespread significant river flooding will occur, stay tuned as these events unfold.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.