textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move south across extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning, moving south of the area by mid morning.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Saturday and Sunday. Slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across the region late Saturday into Sunday night.

- Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Saturday night northwest of I-44. Slight (2 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm risk Sunday across the entire area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is currently moving southeast across the region early this morning. Scattered showers have developed ahead of the trough early this morning. Some weak MUCAPE is in place so a few thunderstorms have also developed with in this activity. This activity is high based so overall rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side and no severe storms are expected. Occasional lightning strikes will be the risk with any of the storms that develop early this morning. This activity will continue to slowly move southeast across the area early this morning pushing south of the area by the mid morning hours.

Temperatures this morning will cool into the middle 50s across portions of central Missouri to the lower 60s across far southern Missouri as a slightly cooler air mass is moving into the area behind a cold front that moved through on Thursday.

Dry weather is then expected across the area the rest of the day. Clouds may linger into the afternoon hours, but should start to see the cloud cover decrease from north to south this afternoon as a drier air mass advects south into the area. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Winds will generally be 5 to 10 mph out of the east to southeast, could see a few gusts up to 15 mph at times.

An upper level ridge will start to push east into the central Plains tonight into Saturday. Warm air advection will start to occur from the southwest to northeast across the area tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri tonight into Saturday morning. A drier air mass will be in place across the area but some MUCAPE will develop with the warm air advection along with some lift. Therefore, could result in some isolated showers and storms developing tonight into early Saturday morning. Coverage will be limited and most locations should remain dry.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The upper level ridge will build over the central Plains on Saturday. A warm front will lift northeast across the area on Saturday. Isolated showers and storms will be possible along and north of a warm front that lifts northeast across the area Saturday into Saturday evening. South of the front instability will increase during the day on Saturday but shear will be weak. A few isolated pulse like storms could be possible Satruday afternoon and evening across southern Missouri, but again coverage will remain limited and not all locations will be affected.

Saturday afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of western Kansas into Nebraska. These storms will likely develop into a complex and move east/southeast Saturday night into Sunday. The exact track and timing will be dependent on exact where the storms develop into a complex. MUCAPE will increase across the region ahead of the storms and a gradient will likely setup from northwest to southeast into the area. Corfidi vectors would support a east to southeastward track. 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be from west to east across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning at 20 to 30kt. A line of storms will likely develop on the leading edge of the complex and move east to southeast Saturday evening and night. This line could start to push in the northwestern portions of the area late Saturday night, but if the complex is a little slower to develop it could be more Sunday morning when it start to move in, again the exact track will be dependent on where it develops which will impact how far south it gets into the area.

A damaging wind risk will occur with the line of storms especially where the storms on the leading edge can line up from north to south late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The SPC has a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Saturday night into early Sunday morning for areas along and north of I-44. Damaging winds to 60 mph would be the main hazard. As the storms move further into the area the outflow will likely become more lined up from west to east. This will be more parallel to the low level flow. As this occurs storms many start to train some but the outflow may still move further enough south to limit the storms remaining in one spot for too long. It is also possible the outflow southern movement slows as it becomes more parallel to the low level flow, and could lead to some training. Where training can occur locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday. It is possible that the outflow does not get too far south into the area before it washes out as the better upper level support remains to the north late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A cold front will move south through the area Sunday into Sunday night. Instability recovering ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening will be dependent on storms earlier in the day Sunday. If the outflow from the morning storms washes out and storm dissipate earlier, recover will likely occur with instability and shear increasing leading to additional severe storm potential developing Sunday afternoon/evening and could linger into the overnight hours across far southern Missouri as the front moves south through the area. The SPC has a Slight (2 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk across the entire are on Sunday. Additional locally heavy rainfall and potential for flooding will occur with the storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

A cooler air mass will move into the area behind the front early next week as highs in the 70s are expected on Monday. Highs in the low to middle 80s are then expected across the area for much of the rest of the week. Some showers/few storms may linger into Monday morning, especially if the cold front slows some, but overall the better rain chances will be south of the area through mid week. The ensemble model members then show an upper level disturbance moving through the region late next week brining additional shower and storm chances to the area, but there remains differences in the timing and track between the different members so confidence on details remains low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue to move south across far southern Missouri early this morning. This activity will move south of the area by 14Z, but continue to impact the KBBG TAF site at the begnning of the TAF period. Scattered mid and high level clouds will move across the area this morning and afternoon with high level clouds increase this evening. Winds will be light generally from the east to southeast through the TAF period. There is a low chance for some isolated showers and storms late tonight into early Saturday morning but confidence in a TAF site being impacted is low.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.