textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today: Mainly looking at a dry day given a very dry airmass in place and capping, but there is a <20% chance of showers/storms this afternoon that would struggle to see noteworthy precip reaching the ground through the dry air. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s NE to the low to mid 90s SW. Afternoon dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s will prevent heat concerns.

Tonight into Monday morning: As has been advertised, 1-2 mid- level waves will move through the area under NW flow aloft. A mid-level jet will develop, promoting ascent over the CWA (favoring the SW CWA at this time). The mid-level jet will also result in the development of a SE low level jet that will nose into the area. An 850mb front will also be in place over the SW CWA, oriented from NW to SE. All these features will allow for widespread elevated thunderstorms to develop, as shown by most models and ensembles. 30-40 kts of effective shear and elevated instability will allow for strong updraft development and potential for hail to the size of quarters and the greater threat of 60 mph winds given 500-1,000 J/kg of DCAPE. Greatest potential/coverage is expected later tonight into Monday morning.

Another threat for tonight into Monday morning is locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Generally slow storm movement and motions parallel to the 850mb front will favor training convection. HREF LPMM is showing 3-6 inches of rain, so we will advertise that as the localized rainfall amounts under the heaviest storms. 6 hourly flash flood guidance is around that same 3-6 inch value, so only expecting isolated flooding that does not warrant a flood watch at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the mid 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid 90s (southwest CWA).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Mid and high level clouds will increase from the north this afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance moves south through region tonight. A few rain showers will be possible this evening as the disturbance moves into the area. Brief MVFR visibilities could be possible with the heavier showers.

Tonight into Monday morning bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, with the 10-14Z times is when the best coverage should occur, but it is possible for isolated convection prior to 10Z and for some linger shower and maybe a few storms after 14Z Monday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.