textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Fog, locally dense, possible tonight and Sunday night.

- Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall possible. - Impacts: General thunder impacts and localized marginal flooding risk. - Details: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening before shifting east. Localized rainfall amounts of 2-3" are possible. - Confidence: High confidence in coverage and potential impact. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy, a remnant MCV and a stationary front (over the NW CWA) have led to thunderstorms across the area. MLCAPE up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg over the NW CWA and closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere is accompanied by very weak shear of < 20 kts. This will lead to slow storm movements and potential for very isolated heavy rainfall up to 2-3" per REFS LPMM. This could result in isolated marginal flooding potential.

Fog, locally dense, possible tonight and Sunday night. - Impacts: Travel difficulty for road and air traffic. - Details: Fog will be possible both nights and may be locally dense. May need a Dense Fog Advisory. - Confidence: For tonight, REFS probabilities for < 1/4 mile vis are 50-70% along and west of Hwy 65 and across the Lake of the Ozarks region. Elsewhere, probabilities for even light fog are < 20%. For Sunday night, < 1/4 mile probabilities are generally 30-50% over the lakes regions and < 20% elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain. - Impacts: None at this time. - Details: Daily rainfall is forecast, although it won't be a total washout. - Confidence: Medium confidence in a wet pattern developing. Low confidence in daily timing and coverage details. - Meteorological Analysis: Weak upper level energy will shift north into the area Monday night and Tuesday and remain nearby while a deep upper low moves over the intermountain west. This will support southerly low level flow off the Gulf of America, supplying moisture to accompany the large scale ascent.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase this afternoon and evening before shifting east. Look for another round of fog tonight into early Sunday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.