textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall coverage and amounts continue to decrease through Friday, but additional rounds of showers are expected. Flooding threat is minimal.

- Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will then occur this weekend through the majority of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

While some areas of SE KS have already received over 2 inches of rainfall from this system, many areas have seen minimal amounts. The overall trend has been less coverage and amounts of rainfall through the end of the event on Friday. This is due to subsidence downstream of the rapidly weakening cyclone currently over the panhandle of OK. The system is expected to continue to weaken/fill as it moves as a trough over the area tonight into Friday. For the rest of today, mainly looking at isolated to scattered light showers, but some heavier scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms are possible mainly east of Highway 65 where 500-1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE has developed thanks to decreased cloud cover and temps in the mid to upper 80s. Shear will be weak, so not expecting and severe chances, but could see some brief moderate to heavy rainfall. The passage of the mid- level trough will coincide with a cold frontal passage, bringing increased rain chances of 80-100% (mainly along and south of I-44) tonight into Friday morning. Precip then ends from NW to SE during the day Friday.

Overall, look for additional rainfall amounts of 0.25-1.50", with potential for locally higher values of 2-3 inches possible. This is not expected to cause any flooding issues outside of localize nuisance flooding.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Dry weather with closer to normal temperatures takes hold this weekend into next week. Look for highs in the 70s for the most part through Monday, then 70s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Aviation conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate and stay poor for much of the 00Z TAF period. Short-term guidance gives a near 100% chance for IFR cigs by 09Z, though latest observations suggest these will settle in earlier. Have included TEMPO groups for uncertainty in onset timing, with the greatest confidence occurring in the FM groups.

There is some uncertainty in just how low cigs get, but chances for periods of LIFR do look to be greater than 30%. During this period, rain and/or drizzle is possible through 12-15Z, though given latest observations, any precipitation should not impact visibilities all too much. The main period to watch is between 06-13Z at SGF and BBG where some heavier rain may occur, bringing visibilities down to 2-5 miles at times.

The low cigs are expected to move in with a cold front, which will also shift winds to north-northeasterly between 00-03Z, increasing from 5-10 kts to 10-15 kts by 08-10Z. Some gusts up to 20-25 kts are possible after 10Z.

Lastly, there is uncertainty in how long IFR cigs hang on, though latest guidance and rules of thumb suggest clearing may not occur until the very end of the TAF period. Trends will be monitored for the 06Z TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.