textproduct: Springfield
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Friday. There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system, but widespread flooding is not expected.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Currently, the well advertised system is in the form of a deeply closed 500mb low over the AZ/NM border and a ~1000 mb surface low over the Oklahoma panhandle.
As the system moves east, the low will become stacked over western KS, then weaken to an open wave well before it gets over our area. Precip chances will increase gradually from west to east late this evening through Thursday, focusing mainly W of Hwy 65 through Thursday morning. Precip will then NW to SE on Friday, with most areas being dry by Friday night.
Rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain, but models continue to show the greatest amounts along and west of I-49. The forecast (most likely) QPF is 0.5-1.0" along/south of I-44 and 1-2" north of I-44 with potential for 2-3 inches over parts of SE KS and far W MO. Again, higher than normal uncertainty exists for this time range, so changes are possible. These values themselves will not be enough for flooding, but convective elements could lead to locally higher amounts and localized flooding. Precipitable Water values are forecast to be 1.5-2.0 inches, which is 150-200% of normal values, supporting the threat for these higher amounts with convective elements.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
The weekend into early next week is quiet with no precip in the forecast, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
An area of rain will slowly move into JLN overnight and eventually SGF and BBG on Thursday morning. Rain chances increase as the morning goes on at the sites. The chance of thunderstorms is much more uncertain with the highest confidence at JLN Thursday morning/afternoon. Ceilings may briefly bounce around MVFR within the heavier rain however VFR conditions should remain until the end of the TAF period when a front arrives and brings in MVFR ceilings and north winds. Low level wind shear is likely at JLN and SGF overnight into Thursday morning.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None. MO...None.
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