textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms push east through the area this afternoon and evening. There remains a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms across the eastern Ozarks and south- central Missouri, capable of producing damaging winds and a brief spin-up tornado. - Temperatures will cool closer to seasonal averages in the 40s for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A loosely organized thunderstorm complex continues its eastward trek across Missouri early this afternoon. While it was better defined when it was in Oklahoma earlier this morning, decreasing instability across the Ozarks has contributed to the more nebulous appearance on radar, as instability has been the limiting factor. Shear will not be lacking as an impressive low- level jet moves overhead. Moisture quality north of the Ozark Plateau is more questionable, and that activity is expected to diminish through the afternoon. A plume of better moisture return is creeping into southern Missouri, however, which is aiding in locally higher (~500 J/kg) surface- based CAPE. This is where we see the most organized convection in our forecast area that will persist longer into the evening as it moves into the eastern Ozarks. A few of these storms will remain capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts up to 60 mph and a brief spin- up tornado. The severe threat looks to end by around 9 pm as the storms push east of the forecast area.

Temperatures will begin to decrease tonight behind this system as a cold front ushers in a colder airmass. The coldest air will be yet to come, however, as lows tonight will still be near 40 degrees.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

An upper-level trough currently over the Pacific coast is progged to dig as it shifts east tonight into Friday. Global models show this northern stream energy phasing with the southern stream that's inciting today's convection. This will bring additional precipitation chances to our area, with the highest chances (20 to 40%) Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture content will not be as high as it was today, however, and any precipitation is expected to be light. Forecast soundings suggest that rain will be the dominant precipitation type, but temperatures close to the freezing mark may allow for a few snowflakes to mix in. No impacts are expected with this activity.

Temperatures will continue to fall through the weekend as another shortwave drops out of the Upper Midwest. Highs on Sunday will finally be close to--if not slightly lower than-- our climatological average. Highs are forecast in the mid 30s to low 40s, with lows in the 20s.

By the beginning of next week, ensemble clusters depict an upper-level ridge building over the Pacific coast, leaving the Missouri Ozarks under a northwest flow pattern. This setup would tend to keep our region dry, but we will have to watch for any shortwaves that can dig a bit farther to the west, as hinted by occasional runs from global models for Wednesday. NBM precip chances remain less than 20% through this period, however, and it is much too early to latch onto any one model solution.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A complex of thunderstorms is pushing through Missouri at the start of the TAF period. Ceilings and visibilities are quite variable, ranging from VFR to IFR, though MVFR are most common. Ceilings may briefly lift this afternoon but will degrade once again to low MVFR to IFR levels overnight. These showers and storms will push east of the terminals this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area and switches winds to the northwest.

Gusty southerly winds continue through the afternoon, occasionally gusting between 30 to 35 kt. Winds will decrease Friday morning behind the front.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.