textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall that may result in flash flooding this afternoon and another round overnight. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts and large hail to the size of quarters.

- A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight tonight into Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to quickly move through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. There is a lower chance for a few, brief tornadoes.

- Additional rainfall chances (40-70%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows southwest flow aloft with a strong shortwave over Colorado. There is a compact shortwave currently moving into Arkansas. While the low level jet has weakened, it remains out of the southwest around 35-40kts over the area. An outflow boundary from overnight storms was beginning to wash out however it remains west to east from about Barton County east/northeast to Phelps county. A moist and unstable airmass continues over the area with the 12Z sounding measuring 2500j/kg MU CAPE and 0-6km shear around 30kts. Thunderstorms continue to develop along and north of that outflow boundary, especially in the Flood Watch area. Temperatures varied drastically with 60s along/north of Highway 54 to lower 80s further south.

Thunderstorm/Flood Threat This Afternoon: Latest meso trends and 12z HREF/REFS supports continued development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern half of the area. Given the CAPE/Shear combo, a few severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds the most likely hazards. Flash flooding will be a concern in the Flood Watch area, especially locations that have received several inches of rainfall already. There should be a decreasing trend in storm coverage closer to 6-9pm.

Round of thunderstorms Overnight/Tuesday: Confidence is high that significant severe storms will develop in Kansas this afternoon and evening along a cold front and an area of high shear and high instability. The storms look to quickly grow upscale into a QLCS and will expand southwest towards Oklahoma. Latest guidance suggests that the QLCS will move southeast and enter our southeast Kansas and western Missouri counties shortly after midnight. ML CAPE around 1500j/kg and 0-3km shear around 30kts will allow for the potential for damaging winds to be the most likely hazard as this line of storms moves southeast through the area. We will need to monitor for any line segments that can surge/pivot to the east-northeast as there will be a potential for a brief tornado, especially locations west of Highway 65. There remains uncertainty with respect to the exact timing of the line as it moves through the area however it should be along the I-44 corridor in the 4am to 8am time frame. The instability levels will continue to decrease overnight therefore an overall weakening trend seems likely as storms move southeast of I-44 early Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible with the storms overnight. We did extend the Flood Watch until 18Z Tuesday to account for the next round of rainfall.

The remainder of Tuesday is uncertain as there are questions about how fast the front moves through the area during the day. There are a few CAMS that suggest that storms intensify during the afternoon, mainly southeast of I-44. Large hail and damaging winds would be the most likely hazards if storms redevelop/intensify Tuesday afternoon. Considerable uncertainty exists with additional updates likely. Temps will also begin to fall quickly behind the front with 60s in some areas by late Tuesday afternoon. Additional post frontal showers look likely Tuesday evening as additional energy moves through the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern west/southwest with several disturbances moving through the region. The front that moves through Tuesday looks to stay south of the area Wednesday however given the flow, additional precip chances are possible south of I-44. The front does appear to attempt to lift north into the area Thursday and persist through Saturday. Precip chances currently from the NBM are rather pessimistic with chances greater than 50% at times, especially closer to Thursday and Friday. Currently not seeing a signal for severe storms or flooding. Temps will remain cooler than previous days, especially Wednesday with slowly climbing temps closer to 80 degrees by the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A line of thunderstorms currently over Kansas will shift into the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible with this activity. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. Confidence in forecast values decreases with time due to uncertainty related to convective evolution.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071- 078>081.