textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts 60-70 mph and quarter- sized hail will be the main risks, with a lower-end risk of a tornado or two, primarily west of I-49.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from now until 7 AM Friday. Bands of 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts to 7" within these heavy bands.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Pulse-type thunderstorms have started to pop up over southwestern MO this afternoon in a corridor of instability that lies along and south of Hwy 60. These thunderstorms have had lightning with them as well as brief heavy rainfall. These little storms are just the appetizer for our bigger event later today. An MCS complex has been slowly working its way through Kansas today. This will continue into our area and bring a round of severe weather and flooding concerns. The main threat with this system is flooding and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. There is a low-end chance for a tornado or two to occur with this system, but it'll depend on if the shear and instability can line up just right. So far, the shear hasn't been too impressive (0-1 km bulk shear of 15-25kts) and doesn't start ramping up until the low-level jet gets going later tonight (0-1 km bulk shear of 25-35 kts) after sunset. However, our instability is sufficient with 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The bulk of the system will move through in the next couple of hours and persist through the evening. Then, a stalled front sets up over southern MO and allows the storms to train over the same area as the low-level jet interacts with the frontal boundary.

SPC has already put out a discussion this afternoon with a 60% chance for a watch at least for our western CWA at some point this afternoon. WPC has put out a discussion regarding the rainfall totals incoming with this system. We could see intense rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5"/hr with widespread rainfall totals of 2-4" with localized amounts up to 7". This will be especially impactful to SE KS and west-central MO where the Moderate risk (3/4) for flash flooding will occur today. We want to stress that this could be an overnight flooding situation as this activity will continue through the night. A few rivers in the area are forecast to reach moderate stage by Friday morning as well. Turn around don't drown, and please do not drive through flooded roadways especially at night!

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weather pattern change is expected heading into the weekend throughout the beginning of next week. An upper-level ridge is currently building over the CONUS area associated with a high pressure system centered over south-central Missouri. This ridging pattern is going to push 850mb temperatures into the mid to high 20s C; excessive heat is expected going into early next week. Heat indicies are forecasted to reach high 90s F to 100 F with localized areas reaching to the low 100s F within the area. This will cause for a major risk of heat-related impacts (3/4) with some areas in central Missouri having extreme (4/4) heat-related impacts going into the beginning of July. For the expected heat-related impacts, remember to remain hydrated and be able to have access to air conditioned indoors.

Heading into next week, the WPC has a likely chance (70-80%) for above average temperatures for the first week of July (average temperatures 87-89 F), and into the holiday weekend. Models suggest consistency with this persistent heat forecast as the upper- level ridge remains above the area. Dry weather conditions will pair with this expected heat wave with no precipitation in the forecast going into next week due to lack of atmospheric moisture for the beggining of July.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR for the next couple of hours until thunderstorms become more scattered. Severe weather may occur this afternoon and evening with the main threat being 60 mph winds and heavy rainfall. This thunderstorm complex will move in this evening and sit over the area through the night. Heavy rain could drop ceilings to MVFR at times. Break in the rain returns Friday morning and then afternoon convection returns across the area. Winds will be out of the south-southwest through the period and will be the strongest on Friday morning gusting near 20 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.