textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will move into the area tonight and last through the day Saturday (90-100% chance). There is a 50% chance for a few thunderstorms late tonight, mainly west of Springfield.

- Total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with a few localized areas receiving up to 3 inches. Ongoing drought and below normal streamflows will minimize any flooding potential.

- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) next week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a strong upper level trough digging across the southwest US. Upper level ridging was occuring across the central plains. Surface low pressure across the Rockies and high pressure across the eastern US has allowed for southerly winds out ahead of the next system. Moisture was beginning to surge north across Texas with dewpoints down there now in the 50s and 60s south of a stationary front. Across the Ozarks, mostly sunny skies and light winds were occuring with temps in the 50s and 60s however the low levels were still dry with dews in the 20s and 30s.

Widespread Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Tonight - Saturday: A low level jet will set up tonight across Texas and Oklahoma and will nose into southwest Missouri. This will transport moisture into the area with the latest HREF suggesting PW values approaching 1 inch by Sat morning which is near the 90th percentile (well above normal). Additional lift with the upper level system will move towards the area tonight as well. Latest high res ensemble guidance also suggests that elevated instability will develop across southeast Kansas and western Missouri (mean MU CAPE around 500j/kg). HREF 1-hr thunder probs are now in the 50-60% range mainly west of Highway 65 overnight.

Expectations are for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across southeast Kansas and western Missouri after 6pm and expand overnight as the low level jet strengthens and noses into the area. Locations east of Highway 65 may not see rain until after midnight. Surface low pressure looks to slide east/southeast across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the day Saturday. While instability/thunder chances will be lower, light to moderate rain showers are likely for most of the day, with a slow decreasing trend Saturday night as the surface low moves southeast of the area. Temperatures will likely remain the 50s through the day.

Rainfall Amounts and Impacts: Given the high moisture content and potential for convective elements (mainly west of Springfield), a widespread soaking rainfall event is likely across the area with this system. The highest rainfall rates (0.25-0.75in per hour) look to occur overnight with any isolated thunderstorms. The majority of the high res ensemble members paint a widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall across the area. There are indications of a narrow corridor of 3 inches of rainfall with this system. The exact location of this is difficult to pin point however locations near or just west/southwest of Springfield seem to be in the most likely overlapping spot for this (given convective element potential). The NAM/NAMNest seem to be a northern outlier with this system as it is showing the highest amounts along and north of Highway 54. This seems to be tied to a farther north low level jet. We will monitor for any northward trends in future updates. There is the potential for a few sites to reach or break record precip for Saturday (see climate section below) however it may be difficult given the rain starting prior to midnight at Joplin and Springfield.

Severe to extreme drought and well below normal streamflows are certainly limiting factors to what would normally be a flooding concern given these forecast rainfall amounts and dormant vegetation. While some areas will see water ponding and some increase in stream flows, the flooding potential looks marginal at this time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Above Normal Temps and Mostly Dry Next Week: Ensembles are in decent agreement of mid level height rises and 850mb temps increasing into the 10-16C range by Tuesday and especially Wednesday. These temps are near the 99th percentile and when combined with increasing southwest winds will lead to well above normal temperatures. Latest NBM shows small interquartile temp spreads with high confidence in high temps in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. These high temps will be with 5 degrees of records (see climate section below). Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning may even remain in the 50s. We will also need to monitor the fire danger by the middle of next week. The well above normal temps, gusty winds and drought could lead to an elevated fire danger however the weekend rains could keep the threat somewhat lower.

Ensembles also suggest that a strong upper level disturbance will move into the western US and Rockies mid week with some attempt to move south into the central plains however confidence is low therefore precip chances remain less than 30 percent for next Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Radar imagery and observations across the region showed rain and scattered thunderstorms moving across southern Missouri. This activity is expected to continue to develop and move across the region through this morning and during the day today. As moisture continues to filter into the Ozarks, rainfall will continue and ceilings will lower through the period.

Current VFR ceilings will fall to MVFR by 08z to 09z and continue to degrade overnight with IFR ceilings by late morning, 16z to 17z. Conditions by Saturday afternoon will likely see ceilings from IFR to LIFR with continued rainfall with more showery activity and little to no thunder.

With rainfall, visibilities will be MVFR overnight with periods of IFR visibilities in heavier rain bands of thunderstorms. Once the heaviest rain moves through, lingering showers and low level moisture will produce MVFR to IFR visibilities Saturday afternoon into the evening.

Surface winds will remain southeasterly from 5 to 10 kts with across the area with occasional gusty from 15 to 20 kts for KSGF as winds funnel through the southeasterly oriented White River Valley (160 to 130 degrees).

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 73/1911 KJLN: 74/2011 KVIH: 73/2017

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Precipitation:

February 14: KSGF: 2.10/1908 KJLN: 1.54/1992 KVIH: 1.50/1949 KUNO: 1.46/1949

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.