textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions expected today and again on Monday. Relative humidity values will be in the 30-40% range with wind gusts increasing to 35 mph today with wind gusts up to 40 mph on Monday.

- A large warm up occurs again Monday and Tuesday with near record breaking temperatures. Windy conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday approaching wind advisory criteria in the west.

- An active pattern builds into the region by the middle of the week through next weekend featuring daily rain and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper flow was becoming more zonal across the CONUS as the upper trough continues to shift east into the north Atlantic. Another wave was beginning to push into the B.C. and Washington coasts with another trough further south in teh southern stream off the southern California coast. The main polar jet remains well to the north along the U.S. Canadian border. The surface high pressure which was over the area on Saturday morning has shifted east and southerly winds have developed behind the departing high and in advance of developing low pressure in the high plains. RH values still remain quite low, especially for this time of night when it should be recovering, with readings in the 20s and 30s. Nighttime Microphysics GOES imagery was showing some lower clouds starting to creep northward over east TX and eastern OK which could make it into the area this morning.

Today: strong low level warm advection will also help to bring some moisture back into the area today and we should see some slightly better RH values, although have trended toward the 10th percentile of NBM over the means for dewpoints during the day. This will give us 30 to 40% RH values during the afternoon. With increased pressure gradient and mixing from the late morning into the afternoon up to around 850mb, we could see some surface gusts of 25 to 35 mph. This will bring us into the elevated and localized spotty significant fire weather conditions this afternoon. Highs should surge back into the low to mid 70s this afternoon.

Tonight-Monday: The northern stream trough will shift inland and into Montana on Monday with low pressure and frontal system strengthening in the plains on Monday. A tight pressure gradient will set up over the area on Monday with wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph over the western CWA during the day. Lows will be mild tonight from the mid 50s to low 60s with highs back into the low to mid 80s on Monday. This will approach or potentially eclipse record values (see climate section below). Minimum RH values will again be in the 30s and 40s which will again lead to some elevated fire weather conditions given the windy conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Unseasonably warm conditions continue on Tuesday: The frontal boundary will approach the area from the west during the day Tuesday with lower rain chances during the day and the best chances over our northern CWA. Temperatures are again expected to be in the low to mid 80s, but may not get to record levels on Tuesday due to higher record highs for that day.

Unsettled period Tuesday night through the weekend: A frontal boundary will push into the area Tuesday night but may stall out over the area as upper flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a southern stream shortwave pushing into the plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday night continuing into Thursday as the front and then initial upper wave move through. Heavy rain will accompany the showers and storms which may lead to some localized flooding in areas receiving repeat heavy rain. The area is outlooked by WPC for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday.

A larger scale trough will then push into the plains late in the week and through the area over the weekend which will continue the chances for showers and thunderstorms through the Easter weekend.

Temperatures will cool down on Wednesday from Tuesday's 80s into the 60s for most locations which will continue into Thursday. Friday we may warm back into the 70s in between systems before dropping back into the 60s over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

For the 06z TAFS, surface ridge was shifting east of the area and winds have come around to the southeast to south around 10 kts. By morning, we should start to see gusts develop with gusts up to 28 kts during the day at SGF/JLN. Some shortwave energy may bring some mid level cloud cover to the area, but should remain in VFR through the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Monday March 30: KSGF: 82/1963 Forecast: 84 KJLN: 84/1904 Forecast: 84 KVIH: 80/1978 Forecast: 84 KUNO: 82/1968 Forecast: 82

Tuesday March 31: KSGF: 87/1974 Forecast: 83 KVIH: 84/2010 Forecast: 83 KUNO: 85/1981 Forecast: 83

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

Tuesday March 31: KSGF: 62/1967 Forecast: 63 KJLN: 65/1967 Forecast: 66 KVIH: 61/1967 Forecast: 64 KUNO: 58/1967 Forecast: 60

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.