textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Near average temperatures the next few days. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly some thunder this weekend. Highest rain chances west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts generally less than 0.25 inches, with some areas staying dry. - A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance) looks to occur next week, with the greatest chance of occurrence Tuesday through Thursday. Severe weather and flooding potential is currently very low, but will need monitoring. Confidence is limited at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continue to show a blocking pattern across the country with an upper low over the east coast, a trough out west and a ridge over the central/southern plains. This ridge over our area is likely providing enough subsidence to keep the bulk of the rain west of the area over the last 24 hours. The 12z KSGF sounding also showed a dry layer about 800-925mb. A broken cumulus deck continues again today east of Highway 65 however temps are already warmer over there than yesterday with most areas in the 70s. Winds were light, creating very comfortable conditions.

Seasonable Temps/Low Rain Chances: Most locations should remain dry this evening with an ideal night for outdoor activities. A low level jet will set up to our west overnight, nosing up into Nebraska and Iowa, which is where the highest rain chances will occur. The llj will veer some by Saturday morning which may allow for some light rain or sprinkles to move into areas along and west of Highway 65. At this time, rain chances on Saturday are low with the highest chances closer to Kansas. Temps look similar to today and will be highly dependent on clouds.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Saturday Night/Sunday: Confidence is high that the ridge will break down by Saturday night with shortwave energy moving down into the area from the northwest. A low level jet looks to set up a little farther east than previous nights and will allow for an area of scattered showers and storms to form in Kansas and slide southeast into the area overnight into Sunday morning. The latest HREF shows mean MU CAPE approaching 1000j/kg along and west of Highway 65 after 10pm with the 1-hr thunder probs at 30-60% in this area after midnight, lasting to sunrise Sunday. This will linger into Sunday morning before decreasing. This appears to be our highest rain chances of the weekend, however its mainly for locations along and west of Highway 65. Mean rainfall amounts are less than 0.50inch. Currently the NBM has high temps on Sunday in the low 70s across the Rolla area to the lower 80s across the rest of the area. It is possible that this gradient will be sharper depending on how long morning clouds/rain holds on and temp adjustments made need to be made.

Mid Week System: Ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger system will move into the desert southwest and eventually the central plains during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame next week. Confidence is high in the rain chances (currently 50-70%) however significant structural and timing differences in the trough are still evident (either a progressive/amplified trough or a closed off low). Alot of this is due to the uncertainty of the remnants of Hurricane Polo off the coast of Mexico. Guidance has this curving northeast into the Baja and then getting absorbed into our system. If this does occur then it would increase the amount of moisture available with the system and lead to several rounds of rainfall. The trend over the last 24 hours has been for a slower arrival of this system with the higher rain chances delayed more towards Wednesday. Latest CPC/WPC outlooks does indicate the potential for heavy/excessive rainfall with this system which would be welcome given the ongoing/worsening drought over a large portion of the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Very low chances (<15%) for sprinkles at KJLN tonight, however chances remain too low to include in the TAFs. Better chances (30-50%) of scattered showers and storms exist Saturday night at KJLN, with chances increasing at KSGF and KBBG slightly beyond the TAF period. Otherwise, surface winds should primarily remain out of the southeast below 10kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.