textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy light fog possible tonight into Monday morning. Dense fog chances are currently low (<30%), but any places that do see denser fog could see a glaze of ice on elevated surfaces.

- Snow melt continues Monday with warm temperatures becoming near or slightly above average. Highs peak either in the lower 40s, OR the middle 50s.

- 15 to 25% light rain or drizzle chances across the eastern Ozarks Tuesday. If ingredients line up in time, a brief period of light freezing drizzle is possible during the early morning.

- After briefly cooler temperatures mid-week, temperatures warm to slightly above average for the late week with dry weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

RAP analysis currently shows a belt of strong northwesterly flow across the Great Plains with longwave troughing over the east, and ridging over the west. Mid-level water vapor imagery depicts a compact shortwave quickly moving down the Mississippi River valley, currently centered over eastern Missouri. The trend of this wave has been flattening as it progresses southeast. As a result, radar returns showing flurries over central Missouri have all but dissipated as of 130 PM. However, light returns have developed over southwest Missouri. Visual observations show virga-snow showers due to low-level dry air, however, a few flurry snowflakes are still possible through the afternoon. At the surface, a north-south oriented warm front extends from a surface low in Minnesota, down through eastern Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma. As the warm front has been approaching, the surface pressure gradient has been tightening, increasing winds to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 23-28 mph at sporadic times.

Snow melt begins today with above freezing high temperatures:

Current surface observations show temperatures a couple degrees above or below freezing as warm air gets ushered into the area from southwesterly flow. As such, you can expect snow to begin melting today as highs cap out in the lower 30s across central Missouri to the lower 40s along the southern border.

Patchy light fog possible tonight into Monday morning:

The aforementioned warm front will push east through the area tonight. As this occurs, winds will become more light and variable with clear skies. Those conditions, paired with "warmer" air moving in behind the front could promote some fog development tonight. Forecast boundary layer soundings support fog, but with moisture lagging a bit behind today, it could be too dry for fog (or dense fog for that matter). Nevertheless, HREF members show a 20-40% chance of fog (<3 mile visibility). With lows dropping into the upper teens to middle 20s, a freezing fog scenario is on the table. However, fog needs to be dense for it to be impactful, so with only light fog expected, no freezing fog impacts are expected with the current forecast. That said, if areas do develop dense enough fog, a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces is possible going into Tuesday morning.

Highs either in the lower 40s OR middle 50s Monday:

An actually quite tricky temperature forecast is still present for Monday. Being only one day out makes it frustrating. The good news is that either scenario will still be near or above average temperatures contributing to snow melt. Still, some people would like to know whether it will be upper 30s/lower 40s or middle 50s, as one is certainly more comfortable than the other. The pattern of all ENS members showing maximum temperatures <45 F, with all GEFS members >50 F. Therefore, the current mean forecast of ~48-49 F for SGF likely won't happen. If my forecaster intuition had to make a choice, I would lean a bit toward the cooler solutions and here's why:

GEFS inherently has a warm bias, however, the one thing strongly favoring the >50 F solution is 850 mb temperature climatology. Both the GEFS/ENS have 850 mb temps warming into the 6-9 C range, which according to our climatology this time of year points to an average high around 54-60 F depending on cloud coverage. So why is ENS forecasting below 45 F? ENS does have a slight cool bias, however, every 12Z HREF member has also come in lower than 45 F. Since our average snowfall in a year is around 15-17 inches, and we usually melt the snow shortly after the fall, the climatology referenced likely does not include snowpack effects correctly. Or if it does, those are the outliers at the 10th percentile which are <45 F. Additionally, a second warm front is forecast to lift north through the area Monday. The 850 mb warm front will overspread the area first, but the surface warm front always lags behind and is forecast to move through the mid to late afternoon. Therefore, the max 850 mb temperature forecast may not accurately translate to the surface fast enough to match events as seen in the climatology. And lastly, today's temperatures have been consistently slower to climb than forecasted. All those variables lead me to believe our high may be quite cooler than currently forecasted (probably <45 F). Time will tell, though! Model guidance alone give a 50/50 chance.

Lows Monday night then stay relatively warmer in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

15-25% chance of light rain or drizzle Tuesday, perhaps freezing:

Another shortwave is then progged to moved southeast through the background flow late Monday night into Tuesday morning. An accompanying surface cold front is forecast to drop south into the area. Meanwhile, right entrance region jet dynamics look to produce a weak low pressure center to move west to east across southern Missouri. This system will have a weak warm front attached to it lined up somewhere across southern Missouri as the cold front drops south. These sources of lift will set the stage for potential light precipitation across the eastern Ozarks/southern Missouri Tuesday.

Measurable precipitation looks less and less likely with only the NAM and associated NBM members depicting >0.01" of precipitation. However, looking at other member forecast soundings, the low-level profiles support potential drizzle with a near-saturated low-level layer beneath a dry/capped mid-level profile and lift between the two aforementioned surface fronts. There are still some little wiggles in timing of forcing and moisture, but if these conditions line up to occur during the morning hours, light freezing drizzle will be possible in the eastern Ozarks where morning temperatures are forecast below 30 F. HREF/RAP probabilities/soundings suggest the greatest risk for this would be between 4 and 8 AM, well east of Highway 65. If the forcing occurs later in the morning, mostly drizzle would be expected before weather clears later in the day.

Briefly cooler temperatures mid-week, then above average week:

Temperatures cool behind the sinking cold front with highs in the middle 30s to middle 40s Tuesday and middle to upper 30s Wednesday with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s Tuesday and Wednesday night. Afterwards, LREF grand ensemble suggests ridging and rising heights which warm NBM temperature spreads into the late week. Current high temperatures are forecast in the middle 40s to upper 50s Thursday through Saturday with lows in the middle 20s to middle 30s. 25th-75th NBM temperature spreads suggest highs between 50 and 65 F for the late week/weekend forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 448 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Mid level clouds are currently over the area early this evening, with southwesterly winds. Some scattered flurries are occurring east of Highway 65 but will remain east of the TAF sites this evening.

Winds will be come light late this evening through the overnight hours as the clouds clear. Winds will then become more southerly on Monday with an increase in high level clouds.

Some patchy light fog could be possible across the area late tonight into early Monday morning, but confidence in this occurring is too low to include any mention in the TAFs at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.