textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm across southeast KS into west- central MO tonight. Most of the area remains dry.

- Slight Risk (2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and evening. Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, with a secondary risk of tornadoes.

- Additional thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Saturday and Sunday. Increasing confidence in the potential for flash flooding due to recent heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils. An associated severe weather risk may develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Through Tonight: A shortwave trough is translating through the Plains today, as the upper-level ridge gradually flattens out over the southern CONUS. A surface low has developed well to the north towards the Upper Mississippi Valley, with gusty south-southwest winds in the open warm sector across region. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph have been prevalent across much of the area, with the strongest wind gusts focused along and west of Highway 65. Meanwhile, dewpoints in the lower 70s have supported afternoon heat index values into the middle 90s to near 100. While a cumulus field has developed across the area, we are not looking for any afternoon convection given stout cap in the place.

As we progress into tonight, the associated cold front begins to slowly drop into portions of northeast KS and northwest MO. This front will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this evening, but confidence still remains rather low on the activity sinking into our area by later tonight. This can be gleaned from an environment with minimal shear tonight, despite ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) lingering over the area. Additionally, forcing becomes less pronounced further south into the area. With that being said, if thunderstorms overperform and/or establish a cold pool we could see convection meander into portions of southeast KS and west central and central MO. SPC denotes this low confidence scenario with a Marginal (1 of 5) to a Slight (2 of 5) Severe Risk nudging into the area, generally north of Interstate 44. Primary hazards would be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. We will continue to monitor mesoscale trends as they unfold over the next 4 to 6 hours. Otherwise, most of the area remains dry through tonight with lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thursday: As we progress into Thursday, the cold front will begin to advance towards the area. Ahead of the front, temperatures quickly warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with afternoon heat index values into the upper 90s to lower 100s. Gusty southwest winds around 25 to 35 mph persist across the area ahead of the front.

By mid-afternoon, the front will begin sinking southeast with an environment favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms. The environment is characterized by ample instability (MUCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg), deep layer 0-6km shear (25-35 knots), and steep mid- level lapse rates (7.5-8.0 C/km). These parameters will align in an enhanced 850mb and mid-level flow, supporting robust updraft development. Initial storm mode is expected to be multi-cell and/or supercells, before growing upscale into a line of thunderstorms. Given this environment, we are expecting primary hazards to be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and golfballs sized hail. The tornado risk remains low and confined to central MO and northeast at this time given the lack of sufficient low-level shear forecasted. This will need to be monitored closely as mesoscale trends unfold, as just a slight uptick in low-level shear may be enough to support a few tornadoes. RRFS captures a good agreement as seen with paintballs overlapping with development towards 2 to 4 pm, and sinking southeast through the area. SPC highlights the entire area in a Slight (2 of 5) Severe Risk, with the best severe thunderstorm environment along and north of Interstate 44. Meanwhile, localized heavy rainfall may accompany the line of thunderstorms as it moves through the area, though the progressive nature should limit the flash flood potential. Expect the front to clear the area towards midnight.

Friday: Cooler on Friday behind the frontal passage, with drier conditions expected through much of the day. Overall, a pleasant day with a break from the humidity and thunderstorms.

Saturday-Sunday: The pattern becomes zonal into the weekend, with a series of shortwaves progged to move through the region. Meanwhile, the front that cleared the area on Sunday is expected to lift back north into our vicinity and will be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore, machine learning guidance is hitting that the environment will be supportive of some strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC highlights a Slight (2 of 5) Severe Risk just to the north of here on Saturday, though ensemble trends suggest a southward expansion may be necessary with future updates. On the other note, the environment becomes increasingly supportive of heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding. PWATs are progged to reach towards 1.8 to 2.0 inch, suggesting efficient rainfall rates. Additionally, recent heavy rainfall, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils will support flash flooding potential. WPC currently has most of the area in a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Saturday. There is small differences within the ensembles on the timing and evolution of each round of thunderstorms, though a general consensus is beginning to highlight Saturday night into Sunday morning as the focus for heaviest rainfall amounts. Continue to monitor for updates. Rain chances (50-70%) persist through Sunday, perhaps more focused across southern MO as the front waffles around.

Next Week: Much cooler to begin next week with highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Additional rain chances (20-40%), though ensemble guidance varies on timing and locations.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Gusty southerly winds will pick up again Thursday morning around sunrise and gradually decrease through the morning, while remaining breezy until a front passes later in the day. Along the front, there is high confidence in thunderstorms occurring. Some storms may be severe.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.