textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A scattered band of storms will continue for the rest of the overnight hours into early this morning. Locally heavy rainfall and maybe a strong storm or two will be possible.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms on this afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail to the size of quarters, damaging winds up to 50 mph, and localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week and there is still uncertainty of the exact track of the system and rainfall amounts for the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

An outflow boundary pushed south through much of the area Wednesday evening from convection that developed across central Missouri. The outflow has stalled and is washing out across southern Missouri as it gets further from the upper level support that is moving across Iowa. Surface winds are returning to the south now north of the outflow and dewpoints and temperatures were not impacted much. Therefore, some MUCAPE remains in place across region and scattered bands of storms are developing early this morning from west central Missouri into central Missouri within the uncapped MUCAPE and with lift from the upper level shortwave trough to the north. Storm motions and and 0-3km bulk shear vectors are both from the west to east, this could set up some training of storms. A surface cold front is currently located just north of the area and will slowly move south into this morning and be out of the area by early afternoon. As the front starts to moves south, the storms will move also start to slowly move south but the storm motion will continue to move to the east, so training of storms will remain possible with the convection through the rest of the overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where multiple storms can track over the same location overnight as precipitable water values are currently 1.75-2". Widespread flooding is not expected as coverage in any training will be localized, but where training sets up there could be a flash flooding risk early this morning. The storms are currently along Highway 54, but will slowly shift south overnight.

Dry air has moved into the area in the 500-250mb range but better moisture remains in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Deep layer shear is around 30kts with MUCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg and gradually weaken to the south. Therefore, expect storms to continue to develop and shift south through the rest of the overnight hours with the moisture in the lower levels. The drier air aloft may limit how tall and strong storms get, but with enough lift, a few stronger storms would be possible. Overall the severe risk is low, but there could be a few strong storms with winds to 50 mph and hail up to the size of quarters through the rest of the overnight hours.

An upper level shortwave will move through the region this afternoon and evening. This activity will be behind the cold front and instability my be limited overall especially north of I-44 where mainly showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will occur as lift with the trough moves through. Some weak MUCAPE develops south of I-44 this afternoon and evening as deep layer shear increases. Overall the severe risk is low, but a few stronger storms will be possible with hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 50 mph the main risk. There could be some locally heavy rainfall with storms but overall the flooding risk will be low today.

A slightly cooler and less humid air mass will be into the area behind the front. Highs will likely only warm into the 70s this afternoon, as cloud and rain chances occur at times throughout the day. Lows tonight into Friday morning will drop into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface high pressure will move over the region on Friday with highs in the lower to middle 80s across the area. An upper level ridge will start to build east into the Plains by Saturday. Warm air advection will begin to move northeast into the area from the southwest late Friday into Saturday. A drier air mass will be in place but a few showers and isolated rumbles of thunder could be possible but overall coverage should be limited.

Saturday evening storms are expected to develop across the northern/central Plains and move to the east/southeast. Models differ on the exact track of this convection. Some move it across Iowa and northern Missouri Saturday night into Sunday while others bring it south into the area. Looking at winds and storm motions, storms will likely move more easterly with a slight southeasterly movement on the southern end. So, the further to the north storms develop the more likely the better chances remain to the north, the further south storms develop into the Central Plains on Saturday, the better chances for convection to move across the region. If a complex of storms can move over the area, there could be a low strong to severe risk with hail and winds the main risks along with a localized flooding risk. At this time the track of the storms will be dependent on exactly where storms develop so confidence is still low with rainfall amounts for the area Saturday night and Sunday. A front will likely move south through the region later Sunday into early Monday and will bring additional showers and storm chances to the area but may be more scattered in nature.

The ensemble members show the potential for another upper level disturbance to move through the region during the middle to end of next week, but there remains differences in the timing and track of this system with 20 to 40% shower and thunderstorm chances for the area during this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Broken clusters of showers and thunderstorms are spread across southwest Missouri and eastern Kansas early this afternoon, and continued development of on-and-off showers is expected to continue through the afternoon. With time, coverage will decrease, though additional redevelopment could continue into the evening (low probability). A few embedded rumbles of thunder will be possible, especially in the vicinity of KJLN, but confidence in impacts to the terminals is low. Areas of heavy rainfall could see brief reductions to MVFR conditions.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.