textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-60% chance for storms this afternoon, and 40-80% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday. Multiple rounds of storms expected this afternoon/tonight, and Friday afternoon/tonight may bring localized areas up to 3-5 inches of rain.

- Slight Risk for severe weather across the Lake of the Ozarks Region Friday. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and hail up to half dollars are the main risks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Somewhat complex features are splayed around our region today. An MCV associated with this morning's activity is currently exiting through east Missouri. A secondary, smaller MCV is just moving out of NE KS into NW MO. At the surface, an outflow boundary from residual morning activity is currently oriented NW to SE from Kansas City, down through Stockton and into south- central MO. This has been slowly lifting NE as a warm front through the early afternoon. Elsewhere, a surface low is over southern KS, which is helping keeping winds more southerly/southeasterly rather than southwesterly. Cloud debris from the morning complex has been hanging around the region, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening:

The MCV moving into NW MO and residual outflow/warm front draped across the area is our focus for new thunderstorm development and potential severe weather this afternoon. From a conceptual model mental picture standpoint, synoptic ascent ahead of the MCV should kickstart storms along the surface boundaries SE of Kansas City. Indeed, the cumulus clouds around the Kansas City area is gaining some better texture. When storms form there, they should move southeast along the warm front/outflow boundary which is producing an SBCAPE gradient across our area (>3000 J/kg SW of the boundary, and <2000 J/kg NE of the boundary). Latest CAMs and WoFS output has been slowly gravitating to this conceptual model with storms developing and moving into our area around 4-5 PM and lasting through the evening. Our 12Z sounding depicted decent inverted-V thermo profiles below 700 mb. This, paired with Theta-E Diffs around 22-25 C, will promote largely a damaging wind threat with storms that form along this region (northeast of a Nevada to West Plains line). Added shear from the MCV influence (0-6 km bulk shear around 30-35 kts), would promote some line segments as well with enhanced winds up to 70 mph possible.

There is still a secondary weak tornado threat focused along wherever the warm front/outflow boundary settles this afternoon and evening. Yesterday's discussion mentioned three things that needed to happen for the tornado threat to materialize. A) The MCV enhanced low-level shear and curvature greater than modeled. Check! Our VAD along with RAP analysis shows 35-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, 20-25 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, and 30-40 kts of 0-3 km shear. Additionally, it all appears to be curved with near 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH). B) Dewpoints needed to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum. Check! Observations across the area depict dewpoints around 72-77 F. C) Temperatures needed to be cooler than forecast to inhibit very high dewpoint depressions and LCLs. Check! Temperatures across the area are in the middle to upper 80s rather than the lower 90s the HRRR had forecasted. This is keeping LCLs a bit lower. All things together introduces a low- end weak tornado risk, especially along the warm front/outflow boundary where added vorticity and surface-based inflow will be available.

Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday Morning:

As the night goes on, the nocturnal inversion will settle in and the LLJ will decouple and increase to 30-40 kts. This will overlap the warm front/outflow boundary in which storms will track over during the afternoon. With skinny elevated 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE profiles at the nose of the LLJ along with 1.8-2.0 inch PWATs, additional storms are expected to develop across the eastern Ozarks. Storm motions to the southeast will be parallel to the initiating boundary, increasing the risk for training storms. Efficient rainfall paired with a training risk leads to a flash flooding potential. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for areas east of Miller to Howell Counties. Even just a bit of training could result in localized areas of 3-5 inches of rain within the Watch area. Since storm motions are fast, flooding risk will be localized to areas that see training of multiple storms.

These overnight storms are expected to continue through early Friday morning until the nocturnal LLJ dissipates with daytime mixing. Dry periods are then expected Friday morning.

Slight Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening:

But wait! The synoptic boundary is still expected to hang around the area during the day Friday as only weak zonal flow is over the area. CAMs are actually in pretty good agreement on the location and timing of another MCV moving through the central Plains and being over the Kansas City area Friday afternoon. Lift and enhanced shear ahead of this along the synoptic boundary will focus redevelopment of storms, potentially severe, Friday afternoon and evening. This would be focused within the Lake of the Ozarks region where shear will be better closer to the MCV. As the environment will not change much, multicell clusters with damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will be the main threat, but with a bit better shear forecasted, hail up to half dollars are also possible.

A flooding risk will also evolve again Friday night with the LLJ, especially over areas that see the most rain today and tonight. Therefore, the Flood Watch stays in effect through Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding Saturday:

The synoptic boundary will continue to sag southward during the day Saturday. Once again, little change to the environment will keep a severe and flooding risk across the area, but focused mainly across southern Missouri as the boundary moves southward. That said, exact details will become more apparent with mesoscale features that develop overnight Friday.

Dry weather returns next week with more seasonable temperatures:

An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 50-60% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 F at some point during the July 14-18 timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current satellite imagery depicts only light cloud debris around the TAF sites as a decaying thunderstorm complex exits eastward. As the time period goes on, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected generally east of the TAF sites generally between 22-06Z, but some storms may sneak into the sites. Have outlined these time periods as PROB30s for now.

Otherwise, winds will generally shift from southerly to southwesterly between 18-06Z at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times. Low-level wind shear will also increase overnight to around 40 kts from 230 degrees.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071- 082-083-097-098-106.