textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10AM this morning for areas along and west of an Ozark to Miller County line. These areas can expect to see visibilities drop to a quarter mile or less at times.

- Rain chances return Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Current synoptic analysis shows the upper level low now situated over Manitoba/Ontario in Canada, with the associated upper shortwave continuing to push through the region during the early morning hours. The surface cold front that was pushing through during the day on Saturday bringing the rain to the area has now pushed east, taking the majority of the rain with it as surface high pressure filters in behind the front. Radar does show some lingering showers over the eastern CWA as of 2AM, which should continue to diminish this morning as the frontal boundary continues moving away.

Fog this morning: Observations have shown declining visibilities over the past few hours, with locations west of I-49 dropping below a mile (reaching 0.25 miles in some spots), and areas west of Highway 65 not too far behind. With HREF probabilities showing 60-80% chances of Visibilities <0.25 increasing over the next couple hours and continuing past sunrise, decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for areas along/west of an Ozark to Miller County line until 10AM this morning.

Rest of Today: Once the fog and the rain clear out later this morning, the rest of the day should be dry, with clouds gradually clearing from northwest to southeast. Areas over south- central Missouri (southeast of I-44) may not clear out as much, with that area being closer to the back edge of the frontal boundary. Regardless, afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, which is near- normal for this time of year.

Memorial Day Forecast: Monday morning, an upper level low looks to develop to our south/southwest, slowly making its way up into the region. The aforementioned frontal boundary to our southeast becomes pseudo- stationary, allowing the moisture to remain over our southeast counties. Much of the area should remain dry for the Holiday. There stands a 15-25% chance of isolated showers along the MO/AR border east of Highway 65, however if these were to occur, they'd be light, with hardly any measurable amounts expected. Skies should remain generally clear / mostly sunny, which will allow temperatures to climb into the low 80s for the majority of the area. Over our southeast where clouds persist and light rain chances exist, temperatures will struggle to reach 80.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Beginning on Tuesday, the active pattern continues and becomes more widespread, which is expected to persist through the remainder of the week. The aforementioned upper level low continues to push up into the region Tuesday morning and wobble around the region for several days. As a result, a series of shortwaves will bring daily chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Tuesday showcases 60-80% chances of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances currently southeast of the I-44 corridor. As mentioned previously, we're not expecting all-day washouts, with generally light rain mixed with pockets of moderate rainfall occurring at times. No severe weather is currently expected.

The NBM interquartile spreads show increasing differences between the 25th and 75th percentiles the further out we go, leading to lower confidence in exact temperatures next week. As a general guideline, days with clear skies and longer breaks in the rain will lead to highs climbing into the upper 70s/low 80s, with cloudier/rainier days limiting highs to the low/mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Dense Fog has lowered visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at times at KSGF and KJLN primarily, leading to IFR to VLIFR conditions. This is expected to continue for a couple more hours before conditions improve back to VFR by 14Z-15Z. Otherwise, light and variable winds should top out around 5kts and shift out of the southeast by the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057- 066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.