textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today (highest chances southeast of I-44). Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

- Patchy fog overnight, especially southeast of I-44. 40-60% chance for visibilities to drop below 1 mile.

- Additional rain chances through the end of the week and weekend. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Current synoptic analysis shows a prominent upper level closed low pushing onto the west coast during the early morning hours, with a weaker upper low just to our south/southwest. As the day continues, the upper low to our south will slowly continue to push up into the region. A surface stationary front is currently set up over the bootheel region, which should remain fairly in place for the day, with ample moisture over our southeast CWA.

With the increased moisture, satellite imagery shows some mid to high level clouds continuing to lift north through the eastern part of the CWA, mainly east of Highway 65 (as of 2AM).

High-res ensemble guidance suggests precipitation chances beginning to increase around sunrise (40-60%) this morning for our far southeast counties, slowly lifting north/northwest before chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms peak at 60-80% this afternoon/early evening. The higher chances continue to be southeast of the I-44 corridor, however some isolated activity could occur (20-40%) north of I-44. With PWAT values around 1.5in, some efficient rainfall rates could occur with brief periods of moderate rainfall. WPC does highlight areas south of I-44 in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall to account for the potential for localized flooding (especially with the saturated soils from recent rainfall), however we're not expecting any widespread flooding or an all- day washouts for today. Most of the activity will be in the form of light rain, with a few bouts of moderate rainfall. Additionally, with MUCAPE remaining between 500-1000 J/kg and shear limited to <20kts at best, no severe weather is expected. The primary hazard for today will be lightning and brief periods of localized heavy rainfall.

By this evening, the majority of the rain should push out of the area, with mostly dry conditions expected overnight tonight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The active pattern will continue through the week and into the weekend as the upper closed low continues over the western CONUS, lifting several spokes of energy through the region. As a result, daily chances of rain exist (20-50%), with increased 60-80% chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Wednesday looks to be the "driest" day this week, with the higher chances (20-40%) limited to the MO/KS and MO/AR border in our southwest. Most areas should remain mostly dry.

An Omega blocking pattern looks to set up, with another upper closed low near the Nova Scotia area, and an upper ridge in between the two lows. That being said, some uncertainties still exist regarding timing and coverage of this activity - even now, the coverage on Thursday and Friday has changed from previous model runs. We'll continue to monitor how the upper level systems play out over the next couple days to get a better idea of what to expect. Regardless, we're once again not expecting all-day washouts, with periods of dry weather likely. WPC does have portions of the area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall daily through Friday to account for the localized flooding potential for any areas that receive repeat rounds of rainfall through this week.

Temperatures this week look to remain mostly in the 70s, with some locations reaching the low 80s. That would be dependent on how the precipitation and associated cloud cover set up. Wednesday does look to be the warmest day in the forecast period (since it's also the day with the lowest precipitation chances), with most locations in the low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around southern Missouri this afternoon. The highest chances will be south of I-44, especially in the BBG area and have gone with a prevailing group there and prob30s at SGF. Locations west of Springfield are more likely to stay dry. Ceilings will lower into MVFR at BBG however its uncertain if SGF lowers into MVFR. Winds will be light out of the east with a gradual turn to the southeast tonight. There is a 40-60% chance of fog dropping visibilities dropping below one mile overnight/towards sunrise Wednesday east of SGF. For now have dropped SGF and BBG to MVFR vis with the highest chances for IFR vis east of the sites.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.