textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning convection expected to diminish near late morning (10 AM to 12 PM). No widespread severe weather expected with this first round.

- Heat Advisory issued for areas along and west of I-49 today from 12 to 8 PM for heat index values up to 110 degrees.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms east of Highway 65 from 4 to 11 PM today. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk, with a secondary risk for hail (half dollar size) and tornadoes.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Current weather: Convection is currently bubbling over SE KS and SW MO early this morning along a stationary front and ahead of an incoming surface low. There have been a few isolated lightning strikes, but no widespread severe weather in our area. A bit further north in N KS, wind gusts near 60 mph have been the primary threat. The convection over KS will continue to push east as the surface front moves east as well. Widespread severe weather isn't expected with this first round of storms this morning. Though, with dewpoints in the 70s and PWATs over 2" this morning, any rain that does move through the area will likely be heavy.

Heat: Rain and clouds are expected to clear the area by late morning and allow daytime heating to occur. Highs are forecast to be warm in the low to mid 90s with heat index values up to 110 degrees west of I-49 and in the lower 100s east of I-49. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued from 12-8 PM for SE KS and far SW MO (mainly areas along and west of I-49). There may be areas just to the east of the advisory that hit the 105 degree threshold, but the confidence was much lower for those areas to hit due to lingering cloud cover. So, the counties with the highest confidence to hit heat advisory are in the advisory.

Severe Weather: A cold front is forecast to move through later this evening bringing a chance for severe weather mainly east of Highway 65. The timing is still expected to be 4-11 PM with the front moving west to east across our area. SPC has moved the Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather a tad bit to the east since yesterday's update. They have also expanded the slight risk further east, but that doesn't include our forecast area. The severe weather forecast is mostly the same from the previous discussion in that all hazards are possible including up half dollar size hail (1.25"), up to 70 mph winds, and a couple of tornadoes. The locations with the highest chance to see severe weather are forecast to be east of Highway 65 where the better environment will be.

CAMs have the storms starting over central MO and continuing to initiate further south along the cold front as we go further in time. Since our area is likely where the storms will initiate, it'll be tough to exactly nail down the start time. The atmosphere will need time to recover from this morning's convection and the storms will have to overcome any stable/dry air that's in place. Though, when storms do start, they are forecast to start out as discrete cells, then merge into a line as the front pushes further east. Any discrete cells that form will give us the possibility to see any of the hazards mentioned above. Once the cells merge, wind will be the primary threat. The tornado threat could be a bit concerning especially over the eastern Ozarks if ingredients align. Just looking over the eastern Ozarks, there are 0-1 km SRH values of ~200 m2s2, 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35 kts, and MLCAPE values ~2000 J/kg. But as previously mentioned in the last discussion, there will be a cap that these storms will have to break through to reach their full severe potential. Also should mention the threat for nuisance flooding with these storms as they could drop a good amount of rainfall in a short amount of time. Be sure to remain weather aware this evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Temperatures steadily decrease through weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s for Saturday and Sunday. This will be a welcome break from the heat especially with low temperatures in the 60s. Northwesterly winds will be breezy ahead of and after the frontal passage. Saturday will be breezy with winds gusting near 30 mph through the day. Sunday will still feature breezy winds near 20 mph out of the northeast. High pressure begins to build in again on Sunday, but temperatures take their time warming as we go into next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s to start the week with mid to upper 90s returning by mid- week. Mostly dry weather is expected as we start August.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A broken line of showers are moving east through western Missouri to start the TAF period, with a secondary line of showers setting up just west of the first line. These showers are expected to remain largely thunder-free, with increasing coverage that should be maximized around 12Z. After 12Z, coverage starts to become more broken.

Southeasterly winds become southwesterly after 12Z, with gusts up to 20kts expected after 15Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.