textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 50-80% coverage of thunderstorms today (mainly along/south of I-44) and 30-50% on Thursday (entire area) afternoon with localized heavy rainfall. - Warm and mostly dry this weekend with highs returning to around 90, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a strong mid level high across the northern plains, stretching back into the Rockies with an upper level shear axis across the Missouri/Arkansas border. The 12Z KSGF sounding showed a large increase in moisture versus yesterday with a PW value of 1.66inches. Even higher PW values were moving into the area from the southeast with a PW value of 2.03in at Nashville, TN. Surface winds remained out of the east/northeast with dewpoints now in the lower 70s. Therefore, a tropical like airmass is in place. Numerous showers and isolated storms have already developed over locations east of Springfield, with storm motions to the west.

Showers and Storms through Thursday: Would continue to expect additional showers and storms to develop over the area this afternoon and evening, especially along and south of Interstate 44. ML CAPE values are generally 1500j/kg or less with what is likely a tall, skinny CAPE profile. Pulse severe diagnostics suggest a very low chance for a storm to produce wind gusts to 30-50mph. The chance for this would most likely be west of Springfield, closer to an area of higher theta e diffs and higher instability. Storm motions will continue to be slow and to the west, which is atypical for the area. High PWs and slow storm motions may allow for a few locations to receive a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall. This is depicted well in high res cams. Most areas will see much less than that but areas that do get the quick burst of rain could see a localized flood threat. WPC continues the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

There is one other item to mention for this afternoon and evening and its a low probability of occurrence but has already occurred in southeast Missouri/Northeast Arkansas. That would be brief funnels. Given the shear axis over the area, high amounts of moisture and low LCLs, sometimes you can get conditions just right for brief funnels. Storm interactions along any outflow boundaries also can cause these. These very rarely touch the ground however since that shear axis is over the area and there is some surface vorticity as well with weak boundaries, it would not be surprising to see a few funnel cloud reports this afternoon and evening, especially south of Interstate 44. Again, its a low probability but want to mention it.

Otherwise, showers and storms will weaken after sunset with decreasing coverage however with the lift over the area, we could see a few showers remain over the area overnight. Locations east of Springfield will see lighter winds and perhaps a little higher potential for patchy fog. Currently the chance for visibilities less than 1 mile is low but will monitor for any changes.

While the main energy shifts west of the area on Thursday, it will be in close enough proximity to produce additional showers and storms during the day. The airmass looks very similar to today with a very low potential for gusty winds to 50 mph and localized flooding with a few areas seeing 1-3 inches. WPC continues the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Temps will also be similar to today with most areas in the 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Higher temps and mostly dry Friday into the Weekend: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to depict an upper ridge attempting to re establish itself across the Rockies. This would favor surface temps climbing closer to 90 if not reach the lower 90s by Saturday. Warmer 850mb temps aloft look to arrive on Monday which could be the warmest day coming up with areas reaching the lower to middle 90s. Heat indicies are currently forecast to reach the upper 90s to around 100 and the heat risk tool show potential for the area to reach the moderate to major category Saturday through Monday. Rain chances are currently less than 20 percent given the strength of the warm air aloft.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and storms will move through the area this afternoon and evening and have gone with tempo groups. There is a low chance that showers linger overnight. Additional showers and storms could develop towards the end of the TAF period however confidence is too low to include at this time. Ceilings and vis may drop into MVFR during any storms however VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will remain variable with winds gradually switching from the east to the south through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.