textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend through midweek.

- Rain chances return midweek with strong to severe storms possible Wednesday.

- Extreme heat possible again next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The upper level ridge continues to build over the region as we start this work week, with surface high pressure over the area. This is leading to a pleasant day, with satellite imagery showing scattered fair-weather cumulus, and observations showing temperatures ranging in the 80s (reaching 90 for some) so far. As the afternoon progresses, expect areas that haven't experienced peak heating yet to climb a few more degrees, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s, and even the low 90s for areas west of I-49.

For tonight, expect lows to range in the 60s for a majority of the area, with some locations remaining in the low 70s. Some valley fog will be possible over portions of the Eastern Ozarks, however we're not expecting widespread dense fog by any means.

Tuesday's highs will be slightly warmer than today, with only a 3-degree spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles leading to high likelihood of highs reaching the 90s for a majority of the area (upper 80s over portions of the eastern Ozarks).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The upper level ridge to our west will continue to flatten out as an upper level Low over Canada continues to pivot northeast, with an associated shortwave trough moving through the Plains. Much of the area should stay dry for the beginning half of the day on Wednesday, with some isolated chances (10-25%) of rain northwest of I-44 during the afternoon, and cloud cover increasing throughout the day. A cold front attached to a surface low over the Great Lakes region is progged to extend southwest through northern MO and central KS, pushing southeast towards the area throughout the day before stalling out over central MO. As a result, some isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, with the better chances (50-70%) overnight. Some storms will have the potential to be strong to marginally severe, primarily for areas northwest of Highway 54 where the better instability looks to set up. As mentioned in the previous discussion, cloud cover and the positioning of the frontal boundary will play a large role in the severe potential. If the frontal lift lines up with the greatest instability, then shear would increase, leading to a better chance for severe storms. If this were to occur, a line segment of sorts would be probable, with damaging winds as the main hazard before instability decreases further southeast. As this is still a few days away, more details need to be ironed out before confidence increases in any specifics.

The front will continue to stall out over central MO Thursday before retreating back to the north on Friday. This will lead to additional shower and storm chances (30-60%) both days.

Once this system pushes out, temperatures will begin to gradually warm back up, reaching the 90s over the entire area by the end of the weekend and into early next week. We'll be keeping an eye on the Extreme Heat potential, as heat indices look to climb into the 100s for many next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period as high pressure dominates the region. Expect scattered cumulus clouds through the day, with light and variable winds through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.