textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday. Temperatures will be 10-15+ degrees above normal with daily Heat Index values 100-110. Heat headline upgrades/extensions may be needed in the coming days.

- Minimal rain chances for the next week. Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

An upper level ridge continues to build across the lower midwest and Gulf coast with a low pressure system beginning to come onshore in the Pacific Northwest and largely zonal flow across the northeast with another low just north in eastern Canada. This pattern is deep and persistent, evident through the atmospheric column down to the surface. Minor areas of low pressure are riding around the top of the ridge and continuing east to be caught up in the cyclonic surface flow in the northeast. This pattern holds solidly through at least early next week before long term models start to indicate the eventual breakdown of the ridge.

The Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8 p.m. Saturday. The heat that we have been seeing the last couple of days is expected to continue with perhaps minor fluctuations. Many areas reached a Heat Index greater than 105 during peak heating yesterday, and with dewpoint temperatures staying steady or perhaps increasing over the next few days, duration criteria may be met for an Extreme Heat Warning and necessitate upgrading at least part of the Heat Advisory. It will be tricky to determine which counties may need upgraded since max HI values seem to be varying quite a bit over short distances each day, with local topography definitely a factor. In any case, HI values are expected to remain below 110 today, eliminating the need for urgency regrading an upgrade. That said, it is wise to prepare for the possibility, and continue to practice heat safety as we are all now no stranger to the hairdryer-like conditions that have settled into the area.

NBM interquartile spreads for temperatures are only 2-3 degrees through the entirety of the forecast period, indicating high confidence in much above normal (10-15+ degrees) temperatures for early September. The NWS HeatRisk tool is maxed out at Extreme levels today and tomorrow for areas generally along and north of the Plateau.

High temperatures this afternoon top out in the upper 90s and low 100s with HI values between 100 and 110. We are getting a hot breeze out of the south reaching 10-15 mph (hence the hairdryer moniker). Conditions will be much the same Friday. Clear skies will make conditions even more oppressive in direct sunlight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Saturday, The ridge actually looks to retrograde a bit, though this will change little for the Ozarks besides ensure that it's not moving on anytime soon. Winds get very light through the weekend as surface high pressure passes over, but maximized height rises and clear skies will ensure that daytime highs still approach or exceed 100 degrees. Heat Index values look to be highest Saturday, with the entire area experiencing HI values between 100 and 110.

A weak backdoor cold front move through the state throughout Saturday night into Sunday morning. The better supporting energy looks to stay to the east, however some ensembles are outputting very splotchy areas of light rain. This is not a scenario I would put much stock in as our deliverance from the dry spell, but there is currently a 10-15% chance to see a few raindrops Saturday, which is more than we have had in a while. It does look to bring a *slight* cooldown to our far east/south-central Missouri for Monday where highs will be in the low 90s...but this won't involve much of our CWA, and will be short-lived.

The global models indicate that Fujiwhara-ing low pressure centers ejecting out of the northwest midweek will flatten the ridge as they move by to the north and send a surface cold front south that will be approaching the area by Thursday morning. Though this scenario is uncertain as we begin talking about 8+ days out from now, it is perhaps the first glimmer of hope that we may at least temporarily see temperatures decrease by a smidge. However, the CPC 8-14 day hazards outlook does indicate that we still have a slight risk (20- 40%) for Extreme Heat September 11-17.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds up to 12 kts today with occasional gusts to 20 kts. Winds decrease after 06Z with a small shift clockwise to the southwest. Clear skies and no precipitation expected.

CLIMATE

Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998 KUNO: 101/1954

September 6: KSGF: 100/1960 KJLN: 101/1954 KUNO: 101/1990

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KVIH: 100/1901 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

September 8: KSGF: 76/1925

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.