textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-50% chance of isolated to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-44 this afternoon with even lesser chances Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most stay dry.

- Rain chances increase to 40-70% Thursday night through Saturday. Marginal risk for severe storms Thursday night. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through the weekend.

- Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, returning into the 90s midweek. Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis show a compact upper level low has shifted into northeast Arkansas. Afternoon temps in the 80s and dews in the 60s to around 70 have created an environment of ML CAPEs approaching 2000j/kg. Convective temps around 79 on the morning sounding have been reached and the cumulus field has since blossomed with isolated showers and storms developing over south central Missouri.

Isolated Storm Chances This Afternoon: Highest chances for storms this afternoon will likely be southeast of Interstate 44, closer to the lift from the upper low. Looking at the pulse severe potential, the main limiting factors seems to be weak 0-3km theta e diffs and slightly lower RH above 600mb, however like previous days, we could still see a few stronger cells producing downburst winds around 50mph, lightning and brief heavy rainfall as storm motions will be slow and erratic. Many locations will stay dry. Storm coverage will likely decrease after sunset given loss of daytime heating and the exit of the upper low. There is a low chance for some patchy fog overnight again however not seeing a signal for anything dense or overly widespread at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Wednesday: Ensembles suggest that the upper low will continue to slowly move even further away on Wednesday. Rain chances look to be less than 20 percent across south central Missouri. Warmer air will begin to advect in with highs in the 80s however a few locations west of Springfield may reach 90.

Rain Chances Thursday into the Weekend: Ensembles continue to suggest that an upper ridge will attempt to build across the western US however pieces of energy will attempt to move into the area beginning Thursday and continuing off and on into the weekend. Increasing moisture and lift will allow for rain chances to increase across the area however details remain uncertain and will likely only be better resolved once we get into the mesoscale range (24-48hrs before event).

There does look to be a signal for an MCS to develop across the plains Wednesday night. This is mainly on the nose of a strengthening low level jet. The exact track of the MCS is uncertain but most guidance takes it into central Missouri during the day Thursday and weakens it. We will need to monitor for any boundaries that could fire off additional storms during the day however confidence is low. There is currently a marginal risk for severe storms across the northern half of the area if storms can refire during the afternoon and evening.

Additional energy then slides down into the area on Friday and Saturday which will provide more focus for storms however this type of pattern has a low predictability in exact timing and chances given that the preceding days storms will affect the thermo environment of the day before. Currently rain chances are in the 40-70% range Friday night through Saturday however this will likely change with future updates. The WPC continues to highlight a marginal risk for excessive rainfall during this entire time frame. Latest NBM probs for 1 inch or more of rainfall has increased into the 30-50% range which suggests an increasing trend for at least one MCS to traverse the area during this time frame. Ensemble cluster analysis then shows a further south trend with precip chances/amounts Sunday onward.

Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday: Precip chances will highly impact temps/heat these two days however the latest NWS Heat Risk tool shows the area in the moderate category with even some pockets of major heat risk. This is likely due to temps in the low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 70s. There is the potential for heat indicies to reach 100 however its highly dependent on clouds. Main message is to expect an increase in the heat in this timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 450 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

North to northeasterly winds will continue into early this evening, then light and variable winds are expected the rest of this evening into Wednesday morning. South to southwesterly winds will then occur Wednesday afternoon generally remain less than 10kts.

Scattered showers and a few storms will continue across portions of south central Missouri into early this evening. This activity should generally remain east of the TAF sites. Cumulus clouds will continue at the TAF sites into early this evening then clear skies will occur overnight. diurnal cumulus clouds are expected to occur again on Wednesday. Some patchy fog could be possible again in valleys across the eastern Ozarks tonight into early Wednesday morning. There is a low chance for some brief MVFR visibilities at the KBBG site early Wednesday and across portions of the eastern Ozarks.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.