textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds will occur today and Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon.

- There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday.

- Forecast precipitation totals for the week trending down, with decreasing confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: A surface low is lifting northeast across Lake Superior early this morning, with a dryline extending south from the low into central Nebraska, where it continues south hugging the entire front range of the High Plains down to the high terrain of the Mexican Plateau. In the upper levels, an energetic longwave trough is moving into the Intermountain West, with lee troughing developing along the Front Range of the Rockies in the mid- and low-levels. This trough is pushing a broad upper ridge to the east as it progresses across the US.

Temperatures today are currently forecast to reach into the low 80s as a west-southwesterly wind in the 700-500mb layer brings warm, dry air into the region from the Rockies. Winds are southwesterly in the lower levels, which is tapping into a plume of Gulf moisture riding along the low-level jet to the east of the dryline. This will keep low-level clouds persistent across the area through much of today, which could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler in the upper 70s. These clouds will also make it difficult for the cap created by the warm, dry air aloft to be broken. Model soundings continue to indicate that the "loaded gun" profile will hold through the day, remaining too capped for convection to develop. If the cap is able to break, there is a very low chance that thunderstorms could develop, but kept PoPs <20% due to the anticipated strength of the cap and the lack of significant lifting mechanism for breaking through it. A few models suggest there may be increased chances of

As the lee cyclogenesis continues in the Northern Plains and the low begins to track towards Lake Superior again through the day today, the pressure gradient will strengthen and winds will again be gusty. Expect sustained winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph at times today and tonight, as an additional lee cyclone develops in the same place as the first into the overnight hours tonight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Synoptic Evolution: Overall good agreement on evolution of pattern through Friday, but details and timing of individual systems/waves are still being refined, especially later into the week. Overall, the pattern will be a bit repetitive, with lows re-developing along the Front Range and across the Upper Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday and then again on Friday. Aloft, a similarly repetitive pattern unfolds with numerous waves ejecting across the Northern Plains, one on Tuesday night and another on Friday. High confidence in temperatures in the upper 70s/low to mid 80s all week.

Tuesday Severe Weather Risk: The timing of the upper-level wave is trending towards the overnight hours, so the primary forcing available for thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon is the dryline, which will remain fairly stagnant across central Kansas or even retrograde slightly westward. The "loaded gun" profile will again be present on Tuesday, but 3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will be available to break that cap, which would allow isolated supercell development along and ahead of the dryline. The most likely scenario is that this occurs outside of our area to the west closer to the dryline and moves into our westernmost counties in the evening and overnight hours as storms grow upscale into clusters. The environment for storms will be favorable for large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes as upscale convection moves in from the southwest. Heavy rainfall may also occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the MCS matures.

Wednesday Severe Weather Risk: The boundary (dryline remnants/quasi-cold front) will stay roughly in the same place as Tuesday, stalling to our north and west. Convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, which would impact the evolution of Wednesday afternoon's severe risk based on how much the atmosphere can destabilize.

Thursday and Friday: Wednesday's evolution also impacts how Friday's potential severe weather risk will play out. While there could be lingering rainfall early Thursday morning based on development Wednesday night, Thursday appears to be a lull in activity for now, with no additional storm development anticipated at this time. Friday may usher in a pattern change with the southward push of a cold front across the area, which would be the focus area for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 517 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A cloud deck with 2.5-3kft ceilings is overspreading most of Missouri to begin the TAF period as the nocturnal LLJ advects moisture into the area, where it is trapped under a dry layer (inversion) aloft. As the day progresses, the inversion will lift, so ceilings should improve to VFR (bases 5-6kft) by late morning/early afternoon.

Southerly winds 10-20kts through the period, with gusts up to 30-35kts at times this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 16: KSGF: 86/2006 KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.