textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday. Elevated to locally significant fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday.

- Widespread precip chances (70-85%) Saturday night into Sunday night as a cold front moves into the area, including potential for a wintry mix mainly north of I-44.

- Active pattern continues after this weekend into the middle of March. There is a threat for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week (March 4-11).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts broad northwesterly split flow across much of the CONUS. Areas of greater atmospheric moisture are lined up with the two branches of the jet stream. One stretches from Oregon down into Mississippi/Alabama, and the other stretches from British Columbia down through the Great Lakes Region. This puts the Ozarks under relatively weaker flow throughout the atmosphere. As a result, surface winds are also rather light as a mild high pressure system moves in behind an exiting "cold front".

Above normal temperatures through Saturday:

Temperatures aren't exactly colder behind the front, as the northern branch of the jet stream keeps the colder Arctic air to our north. Along with clear skies, temperatures are on track to reach the 60s across the region today.

Interestingly, the surface pattern will be somewhat disconnected to the upper-air pattern Friday and Saturday. Mid- and upper level troughing with northwesterly flow will be over the area Friday, though near surface flow will turn southwesterly as they feed warmer air into a deep low pressure system north of the Great Lakes. Resulting warm air advection will bring well above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s Friday and Saturday. Lows will also be mild in the middle 30s to upper 40s tonight and Friday night.

Locally elevated fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday:

Since the southern branch of the jet stream will be troughed down to the Gulf, the southerly flow Friday and Saturday will only slowly advect marginal moisture back into the area. With temperatures rising into the 70s, afternoon RHs are expected to dip into the 20-25% range Friday and 25-35% range Saturday. The REFS, which has verified rather nicely for the past few southwesterly flow events, gives a 10-30% chance of localized areas seeing RH values below 20%. This would especially be true along any higher terrain and southern aspects.

This will set the stage for Elevated to locally Significant fire danger along and north of I-44 where winds will be a bit faster closer to the surface cyclone. Sustained wind speeds are expected to range between 10-15 mph with gusts up to 18-25 mph along and north of I-44. High resolution model soundings and ensemble probabilities suggest a low <15% chance for wind speeds greater than 20 mph in Bourbon and Vernon counties. Therefore, no Red Flag headlines are expected at this time, but fire spread danger will still be elevated to locally significant given the parameters.

Saturday will be a bit more tame with somewhat the same wind speed layout, but slightly higher RH values in the 25-35% range as slightly more moisture slowly gets advected into the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

70-85% precipitation chances Sunday, potential for wintry mix:

Most ensemble members are in agreement with a cold front dropping through the area Saturday night. Cluster means for the freezing line generally put it around the Highway 54 corridor or a bit south. Therefore, lows ranging from just below 30 F north of Highway 54, to the mid-40s along the southern Missouri border are forecast Saturday night through Monday night. Lower 40s to lower 60s are forecast as highs for Sunday through Tuesday. Ensemble spread increases greatly after Saturday night as the next system moves in. Based on deterministic and ensemble model output, the forcing for this system appears to come from the middle/lower levels of the atmosphere while the upper-level pattern remains rather flat. That said, there are some minor differences in ensemble members that make or break the chance for winter precipitation in our CWA.

Based on cluster analysis, somewhat lower heights aloft in the northern CONUS would lead to a slightly stronger and more extensive surface high pressure system which would force colder air further southward. This would lead to a better chance for some wintry precipitation dropping down to the I-44 corridor Sunday and Sunday night. On the other hand, slightly higher heights aloft would keep colder air northward and bring mostly rain to the area.

Analysis of GFS/Euro deterministics show these two scenarios rather well. The GFS depicts a southerly branch of the jet stream reaching into the Ozarks, resulting in keeping the freezing line further south in our area through the day Sunday. The Euro, however, does not have this feature, resulting in a stronger low-level jet, leading to advection of the freezing line north of the CWA, producing all rain. In an ensemble space, 30% of models depict the winter precipitation reaching down to I-44, while 19% of models depict all rain. 51% of models show something in between with a wintry mix lining up somewhere along Highway 54.

In terms of precipitation type, the pattern of a surface high pressure system compressing southward into an inverted surface pressure trough points to the potential presence of freezing rain and/or sleet along the transition zone as a warm nose would likely be present atop the wedge of cold air at the surface. Where exactly this transition zone sets up is still uncertain as discussed above. Any snow would be north of this zone, which has a 30% chance of reaching into our far northern counties.

In terms of timing, light precipitation should start filling in from southwest to northeast Saturday night, with peak coverage and rates occuring late Saturday into Sunday night, and exiting by Monday morning.

Active pattern forecast to continue following the weekend:

After the first system exits Monday morning, the ensembles agree on the longwave pattern featuring troughing across the western CONUS with southwesterly flow across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. Taking a look at panels of individual members show a not very amplified longwave pattern, but rather multiple shortwaves moving through the background flow. This type of setup would allow for multiple days of warm/moist air building into the region, with multiple waves of lift tapping into said air mass. This will bring multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms through next week with PoPs generally at 40-70% Monday night through at least Thursday.

Within the 7-day forecast period, the SPC mentions our region (among a variety of surrounding regions) for potential severe weather Wednesday and Thursday. This will very much depend on the track of shortwaves and location of surface boundaries, but the longwave pattern supports the chance in or near our region. This also goes for heavy rainfall and flooding, especially if multiple systems move through the area back-to-back.

Extended forecast leans toward active/wet pattern continuing:

For the March 5-11 period, chances for thunderstorms and subsequent heavy rainfall and potential severe weather generally increase as the longwave pattern allows for the warm sector to continuously build up instability. The WPC has our area under a Moderate Risk for Heavy Rain between March 6th and 10th, with a High Risk for Heavy Precipitation south of I-44 for between March 6th and 9th. Furthermore, they outline southeast of I-44 in a "Flooding Possible" area March 6-12. And, there is 50-70% chance for above normal precipitation between March 5th and 11th. The hybrid AI and dynamical GEFS ensemble places the axis of heaviest precipitation in the extended along the I-44 corridor. That said, based on the QPF footprint, this could shift as far east as the Ohio River Valley or as far west as central KS/OK.

Additionally, the NSSL ML guidance for severe weather (both from the EPS and GEFS) increases chances in the March 6th through 9th timeframe. That said, these chances are broad an extend from central Texas all the way to central Pennsylvania, so exact locations are still very much uncertain. This is mainly heads up that the pattern favors heavy rainfall and potential severe weather over multiple days in the extended.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the entire TAF period with mostly clear skies and 5-10 kt northwesterly winds becoming calm and variable after 02Z. Towards the end of the period, winds will become southwesterly, increasing to 8-13 kts by 16-18Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.