textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Weekend Winter Storm: Winter Storm Warning now in effect from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM Sunday. Expected snowfall is 7-14 inches across the area.

- Uncertainty remains in the potential upper-end amounts depending on the system's exact track. 25% of model guidance is calling for amounts greater than 14 inches.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for Friday night through 12 PM Monday. Single digit lows (above and below zero) and wind chills below -10 F will be likely each morning this weekend. Single digit highs possible Saturday.

- Behind the winter storm, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s through Thursday along with lows in the single digits to teens will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground to clear.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 150 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Today is dry with light winds. RH values have dropped in the 15-25%.

Elevated fire weather and much colder Friday: - Winds gusting up to 20-30 mph. - RH values of 15-25% in all locations with potential for some areas to see values around 10%. - Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions as a result. - Highs in the mid teens to upper 20s with midday details of -5F to around 15F. - Snow holds off until late in the day (see long term section)

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 150 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Snowfall: - Changes this forecast update: Models continue to move into greater agreement as the event draws nearer, thus increasing confidence and advertisement of greater amounts. The event has separated from a single round of moderate to heavy snowfall to two rounds with light snowfall in between. Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning and extended the end time to 6pm Sunday. Also extended the end time of the Cold Weather Advisory to noon Monday.

- Impacts and probabilistic amounts: - Temperatures: Going into the event highs on Friday will be in the mid teens north to the upper 20s south, with temps quickly falling into the single digits Friday night as the snow moves in. This will result in most or all snowfall to stick to roads. Highs in the single digits to teens Saturday will prevent effective road treatment, which will continue into Sunday. - Timing: Snow will be fighting very dry air on the front end. Snow becomes likely over the western CWA after 6pm Friday, then overspreads the entire area between midnight and 6am Saturday. Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected into Saturday morning before a lull of light snowfall (potentially some short periods of no snowfall) Saturday afternoon into the evening. The second round of moderate to heavy snow moves in late Saturday into Sunday morning. Snow will exit west to east Sunday afternoon (potentially lingering over the east into the evening). - Snowfall amounts: Advertising expected snowfall amounts in the 25th-75th percentile range, which is 7-14" areawide. Higher end amounts are still uncertain. Also, a mix of sleet and snow is possible along the MO/AR border, especially Saturday into Saturday night, but isn't expected to impact totals significantly. Looking at probabilistic amounts: - >= 4": 95-100% - >= 6": 80-90% - >= 8": 70-80% - >= 12": 35-45% - >= 18": 5-15% - Winter Storm Severity Index deterministic values are high along and south of a line from Joplin, MO to Springfield, MO to Eminence, MO, and moderate north of this line.

- Remaining uncertainties: Potential for some sleet and maybe some light freezing rain over far south-central MO, but mainly expecting snow at this time. Still lacking great confidence in the placement of higher end totals.

Cold: - Cold Weather Advisory Friday night to noon on Monday, but may need an Extreme Cold Warning with the greatest potential for such on Sunday night into Monday morning. - Friday night: Single digits lows with wind chills -5F to -15F. - Saturday: Highs single digits to mid teens. Midday wind chills -10F to around zero. - Saturday night: Single digits lows with wind chills -5F to -15F. - Sunday: Highs in the teens with midday wind chills -5 to 5F. - Sunday night: Lows single digits below zero. Wind chills -10F to -20F. - Monday: Highs in the 20s. Single digit midday wind chills. - Monday night: Lows in the single digits above zero. Light winds.

Unusual combined snow/cold threat considerations: - Special consideration should be given to both cold and snow individually, but also when combined. If individuals become stranded during the event, they will be exposed to dangerously cold conditions. We are messaging: "Motorists should avoid traveling but will need to plan for cold weather survival in the event they become stranded."

Conditions early to middle of next week following the event: - Mainly for post-event cleanup purposes, look for highs in the 20s and 30s Monday through Thursday with overnight lows in the single digits and teens. This will keep snowfall on the ground longer than normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will occur for the rest of tonight into most of the day tomorrow with high clouds overhead and breezy northeasterly winds gusting up to 25 knots as the low pressure system moves closer to our area. Snow is expected to start after 00z Saturday and continue through most of Saturday. Snow may be heavy at times and may reduce visibilities down to below 6 SM.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.