textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon wind down tonight.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday. Slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across the region, but confidence in details remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level low was located over the Great Lakes region early this afternoon with an attendant cold front sagging south through the Ohio Valley before turning more westerly into northern Arkansas under zonal flow aloft. On radar, widespread precipitation was ongoing across central and southwest MO with several embedded thunderstorms across southeast Kansas.

Scattered Showers and a Few Storms Today:

High resolution guidance shows any appreciable MUCAPE values (500-1000 J/kg) remaining confined to southeast Kansas through the afternoon. So far, radar returns have behaved as if this is true with an overall weakening as convection approaches southwest Missouri. Cannot completely rule out a strong storm capable of producing small hail clipping portions of extreme southeast KS and southwest MO this afternoon, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. Precipitation will decrease tonight as drier air filters into the area along with synoptic scale descent.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface high pressure overspreads the area on Friday along with seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the afternoon. Weak shortwave energy transiting the northwest flow aloft may allow for a few isolated showers or storms Friday night, but confidence remains low.

Weekend Showers and Thunderstorms:

A strengthening lee-low beneath an upper-level shortwave across the High Plains will be the focus for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening. Some guidance suggests this activity grows into an MCS as it shifts east. Should this occur, Corfidi vectors suggest the northern portion of the system would follow a more easterly storm motion, while the southern end may follow the east-to-west instability gradient somewhere across central/southern Missouri. From a deterministic standpoint, inter-model and run-to-run variability in MCS track persists, resulting in overall lower confidence.

Another shortwave and frontal system will move through the area Sunday into early Monday, bringing additional chances for rain and storms. Confidence in this system is actually higher than the Saturday system, and PoPs are high (80-90%).

NBM 48-hr Rainfall Totals 7am Sat thru 7am Mon: Prob >0.5 inch: 75-95% Prob >1.0 inch: 60-75% Prob >2.0 inch: 20-50% Prob >3.0 inch: 5-30%

Note: Global models will not be able to accurately resolve smaller mesoscale features that could result in locally higher rainfall amounts due to the potential for training thunderstorms, so the true flood risk will be better assessed as we get in range of the hi-res guidance.

Mostly Dry Early Next Week:

Ensembles depict an upper-level ridge developing across the western CONUS next week with northwest flow aloft over the Missouri Ozarks, which should keep rain chances low. However, a stalled front will be located south of the region, which could open the door to some low precipitation chances across southern Missouri. Confidence is low, and most areas will likely remain dry through early week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Rain will taper off later this evening and a few showers may move back into the area overnight. No severe weather is expected. These showers will only last for an hour or two then clear the area. Expect skies to stay mostly cloudy overnight and slowly clear out late Friday morning. VFR ceilings are forecast to persist. Winds become variable overnight and then turn easterly to start the day on Friday and stay around 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.