textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday, mainly south of a line from Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield, MO to West Plains. Quarter size hail and 60 mph winds are the primary threats.

- Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding Sunday into Wednesday, with the greatest chances on Monday and Tuesday. All modes of severe weather are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Friday Severe Thunderstorm Risk: - Impacts: Marginal risk for 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds. - Details: - Timing: Late morning into evening. - Location: Roughly along/south of a line from Fort Scott to Marshfield to West Plains. - Confidence: High confidence in seeing storms and in timing. Medium confidence in severe threats and location. - Meteorological Analysis: A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop today over northeastern Kansas. These storms will be sub-severe as they shift southeast into the NW CWA tonight into Friday morning, with an effective front/outflow pushing into the area and settling on Friday. Thunderstorms will be strongest along that front mid to late Friday, but the exact location will be subject to near term convective trends. Near and south of the front, MLCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear values of 20-30 kts are possible, which will drive marginal severe potential, again depending on near term convective trends. Something to monitor is an outside chance for a low end tornado threat along the front, especially if the orientation of the front ends up more WNW to ESE, which would favor deviant right moving cells along with a source for enhanced SRH. Not advertising this threat at this time as confidence is too limited.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Severe thunderstorm chance Sunday/Sunday night: - Impacts: Low end severe risk over the western CWA. - Details: - Timing: Late Sunday into Sunday night. - Location: Generally along/west of I-49. - Confidence: Low to medium. - Meteorological Analysis: As the warm front moves north in response to an upper trough pushing in from the west and leeward cyclogenesis, Saturday may see some general convection (30-60% chance), but no severe weather is expected as instability will be focused over W Texas. However, the area of greatest instability shift eastward into central OK and KS on Sunday, putting the western CWA on the eastern periphery of the severe threat area. How this plays out will largely depend on near term convective trends that are unknown at this point, but thinking a marginal threat is a prudent expectation pending further monitoring.

Greatest severe risk Monday through Tuesday night: - Impacts: Slight risk for severe storms with all severe modes and flash flooding possible - Details: - Timing: Multiple rounds of severe storms possible from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. - Location: Entire area. - Confidence: Medium confidence in the general pattern and overall risk for severe storms. Low confidence in details. - Meteorological Analysis: As the system continues to track east, instability will peak over our area. LREF joint probabilities for greater than 2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30 kts of deep layer shear are 50-70% over the western CWA on Monday into Monday night, although there are some unknowns about forcing mechanisms and CAP strength. Tuesday is perhaps less optimal purely on the basis of CAPE/Shear combo probabilities given these same values are 20-40%, but shear and forcing will be much greater as a strong shortwave and associated cold front move into the region. This severe risk will linger into or through Tuesday night, possibly even lingering into Wednesday over south-central MO if the frontal passage is on the slower end of guidance. NBM CWASP probabilities on Monday suggest a 30-60$ chance of seeing values that typically correlate with an SPC slight risk, while values on Tuesday suggest a 40-50% chance of seeing values that typically correlate with an enhanced risk.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Friday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.