textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures today with some records approached (see Climate section).

- Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 8 PM Today as a warm and very dry air mass combines with gusty winds to create conditions capable of quickly spreading fires. - Precipitation chances remain low(15-30%) for Friday night into Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures into early next week and then warming back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Upper analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper shortwave pushing into the area with a strong surface low over west central Missouri. Very strong southwesterly winds have moved in behind a dryline with wind gusts up to 40 mph so far in southwest Missouri. With much drier air moving in with the winds, RH values have dipped into the 20s and 30s so far early this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s as of midday.

Rest of today and tonight: Red flag conditions will persist into the evening with the gusty wind of 30 to 40 mph continuing and RH values dipping into the teens to low 20s this afternoon with a slow recovery this evening. The very dry air and windy conditions will cause any fires to rapidly spread and a red flag warning remains in effect until 8 pm. Humidity levels only recover into the 50s-60s overnight, but the winds should diminish overnight as the low lifts off to the northeast. With the drier air in place, temperatures should dip back into the mid 20s in the west to the low 30s in the southeast.

Friday: Another upper level shortwave will approach from the west on Friday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler behind the surface low and front with highs in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Humidity levels do dip back into the 20s and 30s in the afternoon, but winds are not expected to be gusty like today which should keep fire weather in the limited category.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday: Shortwave energy will move across the area Friday night into Saturday, however moisture will likely be limited. GFS operational model looks like an outlier with moisture and precipitation compared with the global ensembles. Will keep pops in the low end(15-30%) with little to no qpf. Thermal profiles would be cold enough to support a rain/snow mix Friday night into Saturday morning with lows in the mid 20s north to mid 30s south.

Cooler temperatures into early next week: Behind the second shortwave, we get into more of a northwest flow pattern as a ridge out west begins to amplify. This will help to draw a colder air mass further south into the area over the remainder of the weekend into Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid/upper 40s in the south, while lows by Sunday night are expected to dip into the teens to low 20s. Some elevated fire weather conditions may develop again on Sunday with humidity levels dipping into the 20s and 30s with some wind gusts up to 25 mph.

Warming back above normal for midweek: rising heights and low level warm advection ahead of a frontal boundary will lead to temperatures warming back above normal into the 50s and 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

For the 18z TAFS, strong surface low was pushing though the region today and very gusty winds up to 35 kts have occurred already out of the southwest. This will be the main avaition hazard today as drier air has punched into the area behind the dry line and will keep VFR conditions through the period. Winds will gradually veer around to the west and then northwest this evening and also diminish by late evening and the overnight hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KJLN: 78/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.