textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area from the west late this evening into Friday morning. There will be the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. Damaging wind gusts near 60 mph is the main threat.

- Severe thunderstorm chances will occur across portions of the area each day from Friday through Monday as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across the region. There are still questions on exact timing of each round.

- Will have to monitor for excessive rainfall later this week into the weekend, especially where heavy rain fell last week northwest of the I-44 corridor.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

An upper level trough is currently moving east into the Plains this afternoon. A dry line is located from eastern Nebraska to the southwest into central Oklahoma. Storms are developing along the front across eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas. Storms will continue to develop along the dry line to the south this afternoon into this evening. The best axis of instability is located along and just east of the dry line. As the upper level trough moves the storms will develop into a line and will move to the east into the western portions of the area late this evening, after 9pm then will move east across the rest of the area into the overnight hours. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will develop ahead of the storms as the trough moves east late this evening into Friday morning. Deep layer shear will also increase and lead to the potential for severe storms with the line across the entire area. Damaging winds of 60 to 70mph will be the main risk, with an isolated large hail risk, especially along and west of I-49. Low level shear will support a low brief tornado potential with any surges in the line to the east, west of Highway 65. Low level shear will weaken to the east. As the storms move to the southeast tonight, the main risk will be scattered damaging winds across the rest of the area into Friday morning. Showers and some rumbles of thunder will likely linger behind the line of storms for a few hours and could all push south of the area by the mid morning hours Friday.

A surface front will stall near the I-44 corridor on Friday and instability will increase during the heating of the day. Lift will not be overly strong across the area on Friday with the better storm potential south of the area, but some isolated storms will be possible along and south of I-44 Friday afternoon into the early evening hours. A few storms may be strong to severe with hail up to the size of quarters but most of the activity will likely be sub severe Friday afternoon and evening. This activity will dissipated by the mid evening hours Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Much of the day Saturday should be dry across the area as the Friday system moves off to the east and upper level ridging builds over the region. Another upper level trough will move east into the Plains by Saturday night. Instability will increase and the cap is expected to weaken across Kansas and Oklahoma Satruday evening. This activity could then develop into a line of storms will push east across the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There will be the potential for severe storms with this activity with damaging winds the main risk.

Storms may be ongoing across the area Sunday morning but should move off to the east by the afternoon hours Sunday. Instability will increase across the area on Sunday afternoon east of Highway 65. The better lift will be east of the area on Sunday but some scattered storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. If storms are able to develop Sunday afternoon/evening there would be the potential for some large hail up to the size of golf balls with a few of these storms. As peak heating ends, these storms will weaken Sunday evening.

Further to the west another upper level trough will push into the Plains with a dry line setting up across Kansas and Oklahoma. Storms will likely develop along the dry line on Sunday evening. The upper trough will remain to the west Sunday therefore, the dry line will not move much to the east Sunday evening. So, it is possible the storms remain west of the area in the better instability. If the dry line and instability axis can move to the east enough, there would be the potential for these storms to move into the area Sunday evening at least in the west. There are questions on just how far east the storms can make on Sunday. If these storms can make it into the area, large hail, damaging winds, and few tornadoes will all be possible, but it is possible this activity remains west of the area.

The upper level trough will move northeast across the area on Monday. Surface low pressure will develop ahead of the trough and move northeast into northern Missouri and Iowa. As the surface low moves northeast a cold front will move east across the area. The 12Z models are a little slower with the frontal passage with it moving into the western portions of the area Monday afternoon and across the area into Monday evening. There will a again be the potential for severe weather will this round across the entire area. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with each round of storms, and with multiple rounds of storms, there will be the potential for flooding of rivers and flood prone areas, especially if these multiple rounds of rain track over locations north of I-44 that received heavy rain last week.

The front will push south of the area on Tuesday and stall. The front may then lift back to the north mid/late week with chances for showers and storms returning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

MVFR ceilings have developed across portions of western and southern Missouri this morning including the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites. Ceilings should improve to VFR this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will continue through this afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms will develop across Kansas this afternoon/evening and will form into the a line and move through the area late this evening into Friday morning. Some showers and embedded thunder will be possible a couple hours after the line of storms tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with the storms along with gusty winds.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.