textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended stretch of active weather continues, with daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of next week.

- Severe weather is possible Sunday through Wednesday, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Sunday will be quite breezy, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph.

- Potential also exists for flash flooding and river flooding in areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, especially as the week progresses and rainfall accumulations add up.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:

00Z upper air analysis shows a negatively-tilted ridge building across the central CONUS, with a downstream trough and associated jet streak aloft pushing east through New England. Upstream of the ridge, a shortwave trough is pushing into the West Coast, weakening as it gets absorbed by a stronger digging trough that is approaching from further west in the Pacific. At the surface, the cold front that pushed south through the area during the day on Friday has stalled across central Arkansas, with a high pressure north of the front across the Midwest and another surface high to the south of the front in the southeast US. Zooming out to the hemispheric view, global models are initializing a 6-wave pattern (more on what this means in a moment).

Fog This Morning: Temperatures dropped into the low 60s and upper 50s behind the cold frontal passage Friday evening. The front did not supply significant dry air advection into the area, so dew points remain largely in the mid to upper 50s overnight. This is putting the surface at saturation, so with light to calm winds, we are observing some ground fog on satellite between the breaks in the high clouds. Areas in western Missouri and eastern Kansas are seeing minor visibility reductions (4-5 miles) due to this fog. The fog will be generally transient in nature, so any patches of locally dense fog that might reduce visibility as low as 1-2 miles should be short-lived and confined to small areas. As winds gradually pick up over the next 1-3 hours, fog will disperse.

Synoptic Evolution Through The Weekend: The high pressure to the north of the front in the Midwest slides east as a surface low advances across the upper Missouri Valley. The synoptic ridging across the southeast will be slower to pivot and begin pushing east, resulting in the southern high overpowering the northern one, returning the Ozarks to prevailing southerly winds. The return of this southerly flow will cause that stalled boundary to push back north as a warm front, which will move across our forecast area from south to north this morning. This southerly jet will be strongest and advect the best moisture from the Gulf through central OK/KS and arc through northwest Missouri, reaching the Great Lakes by Sunday evening. However, we will remain on the eastern edge of the main low-level jet streak.

Showers & Storms Today: Temperature advection associated with the warm front will provide broad synoptic support for shower and thunderstorm development, but PoPs all day today are in the 15-35% range across the area to reflect the isolated to scattered coverage of any storms that manage to develop in our area. Overall, the ingredients for storms don't line up very well timing-wise for us, which may keep most of our area dry. The front will lift through our area during the morning hours today while the environment remains capped (MLCIN 75-150 J/kg), and once the cap breaks in the early afternoon, the best forcing, moisture, and instability will be to our north. If the cap breaks earlier (late morning hours), perhaps destabilizing faster in areas that can take advantage of those breaks in high clouds, we could see some scattered development of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder (it is spring after all). Severe weather is not a concern with these scattered showers/storms.

Showers & Storms Tomorrow (Sunday): The SPC severe weather risk area is confined to a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas along and west of I-49. Ongoing convection in the central Plains will move into our area early Sunday morning, slowly progressing and redeveloping through the day. Capping will be less of an issue, but instability is still meager once you get as far east as our forecast area, especially with ongoing convection across the area preventing taking full advantage of that peak heating period. However, areas along the I-49 corridor and west will push convection out earliest and have more time to recover. If strong storms can re-develop in these areas Sunday afternoon/evening, model soundings suggest that some elevated storms producing hail to the size of quarters could be possible.

Windy Outside of Storms on Sunday: As the surface low in the Northern Plains becomes more developed during the day on Sunday, the high pressure in the southeast will linger long enough to cause a decent tightening in the pressure gradient and bring some gusty south-southwesterly winds to the area. Winds will gust up to 30-40 mph, with the strongest winds furthest west and in areas that see localized enhancement from the downsloping effect of the plateau (generally Barton/Jasper/Vernon counties in MO are the bullseye of highest winds). While an isolated gust or two up to 45 mph is not out of the question, widespread chances of exceeding 45 mph gusts are <10% at this time, so a Wind Advisory is not currently anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Overall Pattern Evolution/Synopsis: Okay, here's where the 6-wave pattern comes in: a more active hemispheric pattern sets the stage for a very progressive and energetic pattern, with a train of shortwaves (a series of smaller embedded troughs within the bigger parent trough) bringing shower and storm chances every day of the upcoming work week. The leeside trough that develops in the Central Plains early in the week will deepen and lift across the central US towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday, serving as a focal point for the sensible weather pattern through at least midweek.

Monday - Severe: Confidence in severe potential on Monday remains similarly low to Sunday. The previous SPC 15% severe outlook has transitioned into a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for areas that are generally along and west of I-49 again. The environment is very capped again, with MLCIN potentially exceeding 200 J/kg, which will suppress storm development and keep coverage of any storms that can develop very isolated. However, if a strong storm can develop, the primary hazard would be hail up to the size of quarters or half dollars.

Tuesday and Wednesday - Severe: Tuesday and Wednesday still look to be the best days for severe weather. Model agreement is not much better than previous forecast, but confidence is medium to high in the surface low developing and tracking northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bulk shear increases above 30kts on Tuesday and to 45-50kts on Wednesday, which will improve storm organization and severe potential compared to previous days. 15% (Slight/level 2 of 5 equivalent) SPC outlooks were maintained, with an all-hazards event possible on both days.

Thursday and Friday - Severe?: Uncertainty is still very high in how the end of the week will evolve, but global models point towards the energetic shortwave train remaining on the tracks, which keep PoPs 35-55% on both Thursday and Friday. Machine learning algorithms indicate similarly elevated potential to earlier in the week with regards to severe weather potential, with Friday being another potential day to keep an eye on.

Flooding/Heavy Rainfall: While excessive training of showers and storms is not anticipated at this point, areas that experience embedded deep convection and multiple rounds of rainfall at any point this week will have to remain cognizant of the potential for flash flooding. As the week continues on, we will also need to monitor for potential river flooding threats as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A warm front is lifting across Missouri from south to north early this morning, turning winds from light and easterly to 5-15kts and southerly to start the period. Transient patches of fog are still lingering in parts of the area, but with strengthening winds with the warm front, remaining localized patches of fog are anticipated to dissipate shortly. Gusts up to 20kts may be possible at times. Late in the period (after 06Z Sun) LLWS becomes a concern with low-level jet development overnight.

Scattered shower and storm development is anticipated this morning into this afternoon in association with the warm front, though overall coverage is still questionable at this time. Opted for a TEMPO to start at SGF because of a shower that was moving from the nearby vicinity to within the airspace, though the shower itself may not directly impact the terminal.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 11: KSGF: 84/1996 KUNO: 85/1965, 2019

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 12: KSGF: 63/1972 KJLN: 71/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 66/1972

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.