textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will quickly rebound to upper 60s/low 70s Wednesday and continue warming into the weekend, with highs in the 80s by Friday. Those temperatures would challenge record highs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Less than a 20% chance for very light rain/snow (sprinkles/flurries) across central MO this evening into tonight: - Impacts: None - Details: <20% chance for measurable precip over central MO. - Confidence: High. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy moving through may allow for some elevated radar returns, but a very dry airmass will prevent much or all of that from reaching the ground. HREF probabilities for >= 0.01" are generally < 20% of liquid QPF over central MO.

Warming temperatures: - Impacts: None - Details: Lows in the low 30s to low 40s tonight, climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday night. Highs around 70 Wednesday climbing to around 80 by Friday. - Confidence: High. NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads are generally <=5 degrees, showing agreement among models. - Meteorological Analysis: As the upper level pattern shifts east, the deep trough over the area will give way to an amplified ridge over the western CONUS as it flattens out and shifts across the area. This will cause a much warmer airmass to push in from the west. Resulting high temperatures may near record levels Thursday and Friday, but the greatest likelihoods for breaking records will be on Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Continued above normal (near record) this weekend: - Impacts: Low (< 25%) probability for heightened fire weather concerns. - Details: Highs in the 80s Saturday and mid 70s to mid 80s Sunday. Drier air (RH values 20-35%) and increased winds forecast for Sunday and Monday with < 25% chance for combined dry and windy conditions (gusts > 25 mph and RH < 30%). - Confidence: Medium-high Saturday (NBM 25-75% percentile spread of 5-7 degrees) and medium-low on Sunday (15-20 degree spread). Low to medium confidence in fire weather concerns. - Meteorological Analysis: The warm airmass mentioned in the short term section continues to push into the area Saturday when the warmest temperatures are expected. See the climate section for records. Probabilities for > 90 F high temperatures is 20-30% along the MO/AR border Saturday. Chances increase to 20-40% on Sunday, but confidence decreases. A cold front may move through Sunday, leading to gusty winds Sunday and cooler (closer to normal) conditions Monday. Even drier air will move in with the front, so no chances for precipitation exist, but a fire weather threat may result.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR through the period with high clouds filtering in and out throughout the night and for Wednesday. Wind shear will be present overnight, then dissipate by sunrise on Wednesday. Surface winds will continue to be out of the south-southwest and will gust up to 25 knots overnight. Wind speeds will decrease to 10 knots or less for tomorrow but stay out of the same direction.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 19: KUNO: 81/1969

March 20: KVIH: 83/2017

March 21: KSGF: 88/1916 KVIH: 85/1904 KUNO: 79/2011

March 22: KVIH: 78/1904 KUNO: 85/1997

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.