textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for entire area through this evening. The warning has been extended through Monday evening for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 105+.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely this week with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional heat headlines may be warranted.

- There is a 50-80 % chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Today-Tonight: An upper-level ridge remains intact over the region, with a backdoor cold front expected to nudge into the area today. An additional outflow boundary extends into eastern KS from overnight convection. An upper-level disturbance overrides these boundaries today and provides a source of energy. The combination of the strong ridge/high pressure just to our west and the weak disturbance sets the stage for another hot day accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The extreme heat remains a big headline this afternoon, with an Extreme Heat Warning across the entire area. Temperatures once again sore into the upper 90s to lower 100s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, heat index values will approach 105 to 110. This is part of persistent and relentless heat wave, that has now seen extreme temperatures and heat index values for over a week. The backdoor cold front provides "some" relief across the area into Monday, though is relatively minimal as to be discussed later in the AFD.

The other headline for today is scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. Compared to yesterday, this activity is a bit better in coverage. Additionally, the environment is favorable for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. This can be gleaned by Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index (OPSTI), capturing favorable lapse rates and instability in the vicinity of weak steering flow and uncapped environment. Additionally, the environment is characterized by ample DCAPE and PWATs around 1.8+ inches. This would suggest a few strong updrafts that quickly collapse (precipitable loading), supporting the potential of damaging wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph. While not all locations will see activity today, it is important to remain Weather Aware! Any rainfall will be beneficial to ongoing drought conditions, that continue to worsen through this heat wave.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm gradually diminish late this evening with the loss of daytime heating, though some CAMs do keep activity in the area to as late as midnight. Minimal overnight relief, particularly across the western half of the area, with lows ranging from middle 60s (east) to middle 70s (west).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Monday-Thursday: As we progress into Monday, the ridge will be displaced further west, leaving our area on the eastern periphery. This will support slight cooler temperatures than the previous week for some, with the extreme heat persisting elsewhere. Across the eastern half of the area, expect highs in the lower to middle 90s. Meanwhile, upper 90s to around 100 persist across the western half of the area. This will once again support heat index values around 105, providing high enough confidence to extend the Extreme Warning for counties west of Highway 65. Counties to the east will see heat index values top out in the upper 90s to around 100. At this time, confidence is not high enough to warrant a heat product. The ridge subtly shifts back east into Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper 90s to lower 100s returning to the entire area. This will likely warrant additional heat headlines as progress into early week.

Additionally, the area remains dry through Monday and Tuesday, ahead of pattern change late Wednesday into Thursday. The upper- level ridge flattens across the central CONUS, allowing a frontal passage to sweep through the region. NBM PoPs have continued to increase for Wednesday evening/night into Thursday, upwards of 50-80% along the front. Ensembles are coming into better agreement on at least some beneficial rainfall. Though there is still some uncertainty on the exact corridor of highest rainfall amounts. NBM depicts the following probabilities:

Prob of > 0.25 inch: 50-80% Prob of > 0.50 inch: 40-70% Prob of > 1.00 inch: 20-40%

Subsequent forecasts will work to pin down rainfall amounts. Nonetheless, any rainfall will be beneficial given the worsening drought conditions, further amplified by the extreme heat.

Next Weekend: Ensemble guidance diverges a bit into next week, but the general trend support a bit cooler temperatures, yet still 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early to mid September. This would correlate to highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Additional shortwaves translate through the flow, supporting low rain chances (10-30%).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of the area early this evening. This activity will start to decrease in coverage before completely dissipating by the mid/late evening hours. There will remain a low chance for shower/storm early in the TAF period at all the TAF sites. Gusty winds and a brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible with any storm.

VFR conditions and east to southeasterly winds are expected through the rest of the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 6: KSGF: 100/1960 KJLN: 101/1954 KUNO: 101/1990

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KVIH: 100/1901 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

September 10: KJLN: 96/2000

September 12: KSGF: 97/1939 KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

September 10: KSGF: 74/1938

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ066-067-077- 078-088-089-093-094-101>103. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-104>106.