textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area today through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s to around 80.

- Low chances (5-20%) for an isolated thunderstorm north of Highway 54 during the afternoon and evening hours today and Saturday. Brief heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust are the main hazards. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited across the area and most if not all locations will likely remain dry.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Sunday evening/night into Monday morning for portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The ridge of high pressure and hot air mass will remain in place over the region today into the weekend. Highs will continue to warm into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees today through Sunday with afternoon and early evening heat index values around 105 to 110. Warm overnight lows will also continue through Sunday as lows only cool into the middle 70s to the lower 80s each night. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area through 8 PM Sunday. The longevity of the extreme heat with limited overnight relief will elevate the heat risk and potential impacts. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will also continue to occur during the morning and afternoon hours each day through the weekend, especially west of Highway 65. Afternoon humidity values will also continue to drop into the 30 to 40% range each afternoon today and this weekend.

Thunderstorms have developed and are moving northeast across portions of central and northern Kansas early this morning. This activity will remain north of the area as the ridge is keeping the storm track north of the area. Instability will increase this afternoon/early evening, and the cap will weaken some across the far northern portions of the area. There is a low chance (<15%) for an isolated thunderstorm developing north of Highway 54 this afternoon/early evening. To the south the cap will be stronger and there will also be a drier air mass in the mid levels which will limit the thunderstorm potential. Most, if not all, of the area should remain dry today as chances are low and if a storm can develop coverage will be limited.

Showers and storms should develop again tonight across portions of Kansas into northern Missouri, and are expected to remain north of the area again. There is a low chance (<20%) for an isolated thunderstorm or two developing mainly along and north of Highway 54 Saturday afternoon and evening as the cap weakens some in these locations again. Just like today the cap will remain stronger to the south of Highway 54 limiting the thunderstorm potential for these locations. Most, if not all, of the area should remain dry again on Saturday. If a storm can develop gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall would be possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper level ridge will start to push back to the west some Sunday evening/night as an upper level disturbance moves out of the plains Sunday night into Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible across the central Plains ahead of the disturbance and could develop into a complex of storms and move southeast into portions of the area Sunday evening/night into Monday morning. There will be the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms with this activity Sunday evening into Monday morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main risk, especially with any line segments that can develop. This will be a complex of storms and the exact track will be dependent on just how far the ridge pushed back to west Sunday night and also where the storms develop before tracking to the east/southeast. The storms could be banded in nature. Precipitable water values will be around 2" so heavy rainfall rates will be possible with the storms therefore the potential for locally heavy rainfall will occur, especially where any storms can training. There is currently a Marginal Risk for Severe storms and also a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the area Sunday night into Monday morning.

Slightly cool temperatures are posisble across much of the area on Monday, with highs in the middle 80s (central MO) to the middle 90s (extreme southeastern KS). Will have to watch just how far back to the west the ridge pushes on Monday. If the ridge pushes further to the west the hotter temperatures would also push further back to the west, but if ridge remains further to the east highs would then be hotter to the east especially across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri on Monday. The Ridge is then expected to build back to east on Tuesday and over the entire area by Wednesday. Highs could range from the upper 80s across central Missouri to near 100 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri on Tuesday. If the ridge does not push as far west Sunday night/Monday the hotter conditions could move further east on Tuesday as some of the ensemble model members bring the ridge further east on Tuesday. Highs in the middle 90s to around 100 are expected across the entire area on Wednesday.

The 00Z ensemble model members are then pushing the ridge back to the west late next week as an upper level shortwave moves southeast trough the region. This would push the hotter air mass back to the west and also bring some rain chances to the area late next week as the trough moves through the region. There are still differences between the models on just how far west the ridge pushes back especially from run to run.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty southerly winds pick back up to 15-25kts again after 13Z on Friday. At KJLN, gusts will return earlier (around 07Z) as will a brief overnight period of LLWS. Otherwise, some passing high clouds but otherwise mostly clear skies through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.