textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Near average temperatures the next few days. Isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder this weekend, mainly west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts generally less than 0.50 inches, with some areas staying dry. - A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-80% chance) looks to occur next week, with the greatest chance of occurrence during the middle to end of the week. There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system, but confidence is still limited at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Missouri is currently seeing broken sun through mostly stratus cover as an elevated area of low pressure spins through northeast Kansas. This mesoscale feature has supported light rain showers through eastern Kansas that have moved into western Missouri as they continue to diminish. The instability and moisture gradient lies almost perfectly along the Missouri/Kansas border, which is evident by the quick reduction in magnitude and coverage of the rain as it moves east. Very light accumulations are expected with this activity, and it is not expected to survive east of Hwy 65.

Expecting highs to stay on the lower end of previous expectations today with the amount of cloud cover, especially west of Hwy 65. Should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest in areas that see more sun (along and east of Hwy 65). Another disturbance will move southeast through the region tonight into Sunday morning, bringing more widespread rain chances, but the best chances will again be west of Hwy 65 where better instability and moisture set up. There may be a few embedded rumbles of thunder, but severe weather is not expected. Rainfall totals will remain under half an inch with this activity, with most areas seeing much less.

Rain slowly comes to an end throughout Sunday morning as the shortwave energy weakens. Highs Sunday will be much like today with a similar amount of cloud cover. Very isolated light showers may linger into the afternoon. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend (warmer to the west, closer to the apex of the ridge).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Early next week, a deep cutoff low swings through the southwest, pushing the crest of the weak ridge through the Ozarks. This will allow for highs to warm a few degrees for Monday, into the low 80s for most of the area. By Tuesday, we lie in a southeast flow regime, directly in the path of shortwave energy that is shed from the approaching low. Moisture is pulled into the Plains by this low, aided by a dying Hurricane Polo that begins to Fujiwara with it and is eventually absorbed into the circulation. This dynamic is set to bring a substantial rain event to the southwestern portion of the country. For us, it manifests as a classic midlatitude system that will hopefully have the chops to bring some relief to the drought- stricken areas of the Ozarks.

Shortwave energy forces scattered precipitation as early at Tuesday primarily north of I-44, but the passage of the warm front overnight places us securely in the warm sector through the day Wednesday, bringing widespread PoPs 40-70% (for now). The system looks to stall over Missouri for a while, keeping PoPs above 50% and as high as 80% through Friday morning. The front does not appear to be in a hurry to leave. Anywhere from 2 inches (south central Missouri) to 4 inches (west central Missouri) of rain are expected from Tuesday to Friday. For some context, the NBM 72-hour QPF probabilities (Tuesday 7am through Friday 7am) indicate a 50-90% chance of at least 1 inch, 30-80% chance of at least 2 inches, and 15-60% chance of at least 3 inches (lower probabilities south central Missouri, higher probabilities west central Missouri). Portions of the Ozarks have been included in the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Rain showers with potentially isolated thunder are moving east through eastern Kansas at the start of the TAF period. While this activity is expected to diminish as it traverses Missouri, light rain and bases as low as 9kft may impact airfields this afternoon. More widespread rain is expected after midnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though short periods of MVFR may be seen with rain showers.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.