textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog potential early Monday that may impact the morning commute for areas generally east of Highway 65.

- Gradual warming trend throughout this week.

- Rain chances return by mid-week. Extreme heat possible next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Synoptic analysis shows the upper level shortwave that brought convection on Friday and wrap-around drizzle/stratus yesterday has since continued to pivot further east, with the upper level energy out of our area. The upper level high is currently centered over the desert southwest/Four Corners Region, with the associated upper Ridge beginning to build over the central CONUS. This has brought near-northerly winds both aloft and at the surface as we're between the two systems. Satellite imagery shows some scattered fair-weather cumulus across the area, with daytime heating bringing temperatures so far (as of 1PM) into the upper 70s to low 80s. Compared to yesterday, this is already several degrees warmer than yesterday's high temperatures. As the afternoon progresses, areas that haven't received peak heating yet will climb a few more degrees, with highs topping out in the upper 70s (eastern Ozarks) to mid/upper 80s (higher the further west you get from Highway 65).

Overnight lows tonight are expected to remain in the low to mid 60s for a majority of the area. With clear skies, light winds, and recent saturated soils, some patchy fog will be likely overnight into Monday morning, especially in areas towards the Eastern Ozarks. Current HREF guidance shows a 50-60% chance of visibilities <0.25 miles for areas east of Highway 65 and north of Highway 60. We'll continue to monitor the need for a Dense Fog Advisory, however as it stands now, confidence and coverage remain too low for an advisory issuance in this forecast package. Regardless, those traveling during the morning commute will need to be cautious of the lowered visibility chances.

Surface high pressure resides over the forecast area Monday, bringing another day of clear skies and warmer weather. Afternoon highs have a high likelihood of reaching the mid/upper 80s to low 90s for the majority of the area, with the NBM interquartile spread only having a 4-degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Beginning on Tuesday, the aforementioned upper level ridge over the western CONUS will begin to flatten out as an upper low over Canada begins to push an associated upper shortwave trough through the northern Plains. Tuesday and much of Wednesday should remain dry however as high pressure still dominates over the area. Temperatures continue to climb, with the majority of the CWA reaching the low to mid 90s by Wednesday (and even the upper 90s for areas along/southwest of I-49). Humidity levels should remain marginal, however some locations that reach the upper 90s could see Heat Indices surpass 100 degrees. Current guidance suggests these areas remain below Heat Advisory criteria though.

As we get further into the afternoon and into the evening on Wednesday, a surface low associated with the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will continue to push through the Great Lakes region, with a cold front sweeping southwest through north/central MO and central KS. As the front continues to push south towards the area during the evening and overnight hours before becoming pseudo-stationary over central MO, some isolated convection could develop, potentially becoming strong to marginally severe. There's still a lot of details that need to be ironed out as this is still several days away, however the better chances (30-60%) look to be overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a Marginal risk for severe weather was introduced once we get into the Day 3 outlook period, as SPC continues to discuss this potential. However confidence and coverage remain too low for any certainty at this time.

Additional spokes of upper level energy will continue to push through the region through Friday, bringing more chances (30-50%) of showers and storms. The aforementioned stationary front looks to retreat back to the north on Friday, so there won't be a true frontal passage through our area with this system (as the previous discussion mentioned).

Looking beyond the forecast period, the Ozarks continues to be highlighted in a Moderate Risk (40-60%) of Extreme Heat by CPC during the 8-14 day period, leading to above- normal temperatures likely returning as we head into mid-August.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. There is the potential for patchy fog at KSGF and KBBG between approximately 09Z-13Z, however confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs at this issuance. Otherwise, northerly winds generally below 12kts will diminish overnight, becoming southeasterly by the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.