textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are expected to move into the area late this evening into the overnight hours from Oklahoma. There will be the potential for some severe storms mainly along and south of I-44 and along and west of Highway 65. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

An upper level trough is currently moving east across the Rocky Mountains region this evening. An area of surface low pressure is located across western Kansas with a dry line extending from central Kansas to the southwest into western Texas early this evening. Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line across central Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon and evening. Further north across Kansas, the cap never weakened enough for storm development especially with the better lift to the west with the upper level trough so storms have not developed across Kansas. A few showers have developed but storms have just not been able to develop further north. Confidence is now low that northern storms will develop as the cap will continue to strengthen this evening across east central Kansas into west central Missouri.

Therefore attention turns to the activity to the southwest in Oklahoma. Coverage in storms is increasing across Oklahoma and a cluster of storms is expected to develop on move northeast this evening into tonight. The upper level trough will move east tonight and an area of MLCAPE of 750 to around 1000 J/kg with a weak cap will be in place ahead of the storms to the northeast into extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri late this evening into the early overnight hours generally south of I-44 and west of Highway 65. Instability will remain weakly capped to the east into south central Missouri into Wednesday morning but the instability will decrease to 500 J/kg or less to the east as the cluster of storms moves out well ahead of the better upper level support to the west.

Therefore, the cluster/line of storms across south central Oklahoma and north central Texas is expected to move east northeast basically along I-44 into the area late this evening, generally after 10pm into the overnight hours. Overall the storms should be weakening as they move into the area but a scattered damaging wind risk and an isolated quarter size hail risk will occur into the far southwestern portions of the area, again along and south of I-44 and west of Hwy 65. Low level shear will be increase some with a low level jet developing, but the line of storms may out run the better shear. Therefore, the tornado risk is low, but there could be a low chance for a brief tornado across the far southwestern portions of the area if mesovorts can develop, but the risk is decreasing for our area. As this complex moves east across the area overnight it will be more showers with some embedded thunder as it moves east across central Missouri.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today.

The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component.

These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line.

The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight.

With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days.

Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A mesoscale convective system is moving from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with deeper convective towers sandwiched on either side by a stratiform rainfall region. Lightning does extend ahead and behind of the strongest convective towers into the leading and trailing stratiform rainfall regions, with positive bolts recorded by ground lightning station observations suggesting lightning potential extends 20-30 miles east of the leading edge of the convective line.

Impacts at the site begin with light rain. As the deeper towers arrive, southerly winds gust 30-40kts, lightning concentration increases, and precip transitions to a heavy downpour, which lends itself to vis reductions to 1-2 miles. After the brief downpour, rainfall becomes light again and conditions return to VFR. By 09-10Z, rainfall is expected to end at TAF sites.

Additional scattered showers and storms may pass over the area at times through the early morning hours and again this afternoon, with the best chance for widespread rainfall and thunderstorms returning after 16Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/9999

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006

April 16: KSGF: 66/1963

April 17: KSGF: 66/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.