textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm front will lift northeast through the area this evening into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and storms will be possible along the front. There will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms with hail the main risk on Tuesday mainly along and north of Highway 54. - Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday through this weekend. - Active pattern continues into the middle of March. There is a risk for multiple rounds of rain across the area this week and weekend. There will be dry periods. There will be the for isolated flooding and severe weather Mid-week and again late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show mostly split zonal flow over the CONUS with an upper low over the Great Basin with jet energy south and southeast of the low. The polar jet remains well to the north and northeast, mainly along the U.S./Canada border into New England. A surface front remains fairly stationary over central Arkansas early this afternoon. The main band of scattered showers has shifted east of the forecast area, but we still have low ceilings/drizzle and fog along the MO/AR border. With the cloud cover and the area on the cool side of the front, temperatures remained in the mid 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the southwest.

Rest of the afternoon: The cloud cover will continue to keep temperatures from rising too much with highs in the 40s north to mid 50s southwest. Patchy areas of fog and drizzle may persist in the far south.

Tonight: The upper level low will push further east into the rockies with a surface low developing along the frontal zone in the southern plains. Low level jet energy from the southwest ahead of the low will impinge on the area late tonight into Tuesday morning with MUCAPES increasing as a warm front lifts northward into the area. The front looks like it will stop its northward progression over our northern CWA on Tuesday morning. Low ceilings and drizzle look likely in areas where cloud ice is missing along and north of the frontal zone with strong warm air advection. Elevated instability may also lead to some elevated convection along and north of the frontal zone this evening and overnight. With any stronger thunderstorm activity, some small hail will be possible.

Tuesday: A thermal cap will develop behind the warm front with most of the area(south of the front) expected to mostly dry day. Along and north of the front in central MO, some scattered convection will be possible during the day. Small hail will be possible with any stronger convection. Highs are expected to rise into the mid 70s to around 80 for most locations. Along and north of the front in central MO may be in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday night: The upper wave should move east into the plains on Tuesday night with the surface front moving into the western CWA by early Wed. morning. Models do have differing solutions with the timing of the front and resultant main area of convection with the cold front. Highest probabilities continue to show late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the rain and thunderstorm chances. Best shear/CAPE combos have the better severe chances to our west and southwest Tuesday night, but could still see some strong storms in the west as we approach sunrise Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Wednesday-Wednesday night: A strong to severe weather risk exists over the area as the upper wave shifts eastward and into western portions of the CWA while the cold front moves through the area. While the best instability/shear remain southwest of the CWA, there will likely be enough over our forecast area for marginally to severe storms especially during the afternoon into early evening when the instability will be maximized. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main severe weather risks with this system.

At the same time the upper wave is moving into the area, another upper trough will be pushing into the west coast. The timing of this next wave is still in question with some models showing a cutoff system developing over the southwest U.S. late in the week which may delay the timing of the front into the area.

Southwest flow aloft ahead of that next system may bring some weaker energy into the area along with additional shower/thunderstorm chances late in the week as low level Gulf moisture will continue to feed into the region.

The active weather pattern looks like it will continue into the weekend and next week with additional shower/thunderstorm chances and above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

While ceilings have improved to MVFR/VFR, conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight, especially at SGF and BBG. Confidence is high that ceilings will drop into MVFR with some potential for IFR at SGF and BBG after 03z. Confidence is low however with regards to fog potential. Have included vis dropping down to 2sm at BBG overnight however there is a low to medium chance that it drops below 1 mile with additional updates likely. Rain chances remain low enough to preclude adding them to the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain light out of the east with a gradual turn to the south on Tuesday with increasing speeds. Low level wind shear is likely at JLN and SGF overnight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.