textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) to Slight (2 out of 5) Risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening as a quick moving line moves through the area. The primary risk will be damaging winds, with a low risk for a quick spin up across far south-central Missouri.

- Gusty northerly winds of 40 to 50 mph will occur behind the front this afternoon through tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area. - Light snow behind the frontal passage this evening, with any accumulating amounts a half inch or less in central Missouri. A few slick spots possible through tonight into Monday mornings commute.

- Below average temperatures with near record lows in the teens will occur on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will quickly rebound to above average or warmer by the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Early morning satellite imagery showed the storm system that will impact the region this afternoon moving across central Kansas with little if any signs of lightning noted. Surface and upper level analysis shoed a tight pressure gradient in advance of the system which will continue through this afternoon as a cold front associated with the surface low moves towards the Ozarks. Synoptic models show the low moving to the northeast across northern Missouri and elongating as it does. This is in response to a 105kt 250mb Jet rounding the base of an upper level trough and lifting to the northeast on the east side of the trough moving across the state through tonight.

Before the cold front begins to make its way into and through the Ozarks today, strong southerly winds and warm air and moisture advection will allow for temperatures to climb into the middle 60s. The tight pressure gradient will bring gusty winds from 30 to 40mph. Cloud cover will increase which could impact instability ahead of the front. Instability is expected to be marginal at best with a highly sheared environment. HREF MUCAPE is around 200-650 J/kg. As the strong front rushes into the area, convection will have to erode the cap. This should occur quickly thanks to the frontal lift, but storms are only expected to develop a thin line of showers and thunderstorms generally right along the front. CAMs, especially the HRRR, hold off storm development until the front reaches the Highway 65 corridor near noon, with "better" development expected along and east of Highway 63. The main risk with this system remains the potential for a strongly forced thin line of storms with damaging wind gusts around 60 to 70 mph. There does remain a lower threat for a quick spin up along the line through the latest guidance continues to show a downward trend in the severe potential for our area, with the better environment aligning to the east as reflected in the SPC outlook for today having shifted the Enhanced area east of the Ozarks.

On the back side of the upper level trough, a 125-130kt 250mb jet will dig into the southern plains overnight. This will work to do two things. One, this will aid in keeping the surface pressure gradient tight and allow for continued strong, actually slightly stronger winds, behind the front with 40 to 50mph winds from this evening into Monday morning. Because of these factors, a Wind Advisory is in effect for today through Monday morning. Two, it will allow an arctic airmass to rapidly push into the region dropping the temperatures below freezing by this evening and bringing the potential for any wrap around precipitation on the back side of the low/front to change over to snow. Residual moisture behind the front will be best across central Missouri, though most of the region will likely see at least some snow flakes. Areas mainly east of Highway 65 and north of Highway 60 may see some light accumulations of a half inch of less on elevated and grassy surfaces.

With the temperatures falling rapidly behind the front, a few slick spots may occur where residual moisture remains on the ground. This flash freeze potential is on the low side but cannot be ruled given the rapid drop in temperatures. A limiting factor for a flash freeze will be the gusty winds which may help dry things out quicker.

Finally, The cold airmass that will move into the region will bring the potential for near record to record cold temperatures across the Ozarks by Monday morning. See the Climate Section below for more details. Morning lows Monday are expected to drop into the teens to lower 20s with Monday morning wind chills around 0. The area will then struggle to warm much more than lower to middle 30s on Monday afternoon.

Those in the agriculture community should play close attention to sensitive crops/early blooming. Additionally, make sure to not be caught off guard by the brief return of Winter. With the rapid drop in temperatures, hoses still connected to homes may freeze overnight as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

For Monday night into Tuesday morning, lows will again fall into the teens thanks to a second cold airmass moving over area on the northerly upper level flow. This will again bring the potential for near to record breaking lows Tuesday morning.

The brief period of colder weather to start the week will the begin to moderate Tuesday and through the rest of next week. Ensemble model members are in good agreement with temperatures returning to the 70s by midweek, with highs in the 80s possible by the middle to end of next week. A few model 90th percentile outputs for highs next weekend even have temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. This would send the Ozarks from winter to summer in the span of a week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strengthening area of surface low pressure was moving across the central plains and will continue to move east through this morning and today. In advance of the system, strong southerly surface winds, gusting from 30 to 40mph, will occur. As moisture increases cloud cover will expand and VFR to MVFR ceilings will over spread the region.

A cold front will then move through the Ozarks this afternoon into this evening and bring the potential for showers and storms along with a wind shift from southerly to northerly winds. Behind the front surface winds will increase from 40 to 50mph.

Through sunrise LLWS will impact the region thanks to a strong low level jet from 45 to 55mph moving over the region.

Cold air will rush into the region behind the front allowing for some wintry precipitation to impact the region with icing a potential impact as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A cold arctic airmass will bring a brief return of winter temperatures to the Ozarks for Monday (March 16) and Tuesday (March 17) mornings. For some locations, mornings lows may fall to near record temperatures with forecast lows in the middle to upper teens. These temperatures may have impacts on early blooming vegetation thanks to a warm previous two week period of temperatures from 5 to 15 degrees above average. Of the past 13 days, 10 have been warmer than average.

Record Low Temperatures:

March 16: KSGF: 16/1895 KJLN: 19/1988 KVIH: 14/1900 KUNO: 16/1988

March 17: KSGF: 13/1900 KJLN: 16/1906 KVIH: 8/1900 KUNO: 18/1958

Record Low Highs:

March 16: KUNO: 32/1970

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.