textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions west of Highway 65 again today. Elevated fire weather likely through at least midweek as dry conditions settle across the region.

- Near record lows again this morning, with lows ranging from the lower teens to lower 20s.

- Temperatures will quickly rebound to upper 60s/low 70s Wednesday and continue warming into the weekend, with highs in the 80s by Friday. Those temperatures would challenge record highs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Upper-level troughing has shifted off to our east as ridging aloft centered over the Desert Southwest continues to build into the Plains. Far to our northwest, an atmospheric river is impacting Cascadia and funneling moisture along the crest of the ridge. The 100-150kt+ jet stream is rapidly escorting that moisture back into the Plains, which is dominated by high pressure that is expanding south and east. Northwesterly flow aloft during the day yesterday reinforced the cold, dry air mass that moved into the region over the weekend, with low temperatures early this morning in the teens to lower 20s.

Today and Tonight: While winds have calmed to 0-10 mph overnight, these chilly temperatures will still lead to wind chills in the single digits and teens to start our morning. However, our low-level winds will turn southerly this afternoon, which will act to bring back warmer air to the Ozarks as a warm front slowly lifts northeast across the area this afternoon into tonight. With the slow movement of this warm front, there may be a range of temperatures across the area this afternoon, with far southwest Missouri seeing highs in the low 50s while the Eastern Ozarks and central Missouri only break into the low to mid-40s.

We are very, very dry right now. 00Z SGF sounding clocked a PWAT of 0.08", which puts it at one of the top 50 driest 00Z soundings we've ever recorded here in Springfield (technically it'd be in a 19-way tie for 6th driest 00Z sounding). That's nerd-speak for "there's not enough water in the entire atmosphere, from the ground all the way up to space, to wet a sponge if you collected it all." Luckily, that moisture moving across the Plains is knocking on our doorstep, so we will see an increase in moisture through the day today.

Unfortunately, there is a caveat: most of the water is in the upper levels of the atmosphere, so the increased moisture will primarily manifest through mid-level cloud cover increasing through the day. Surface dew points will start increasing this afternoon as our southerly winds tap into air that is ever so slightly wetter than what we currently have, but minimum afternoon RHs are still expected to decrease into the 25-35% range. Winds will be in the 5-10 mph range with gusts up to 15 mph in areas east of Highway 65, which will help limit fire weather. However, winds will be stronger to the west of Highway 65, with speeds 10-20 mph and occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph, which will lead to another day of elevated fire weather conditions.

This afternoon, the trough in the Pacific Northwest will make its first attempt to undercut the building ridge over the Intermountain West. This will kickstart the warm front's northeast movement as lee troughing sends the high pressure towards the Southeast. It's already so dry that it will be really difficult for any precipitation that falls to reach the ground without evaporating in the deep layer of dry air.

With the warm front movement being dependent on the speed at which the pressure gradient changes, there are a few ways this could subtly impact our weather today and tonight:

1. Warm front moves north faster. We end up with more mixing, higher winds, drier air, and a more widespread fire weather day. We lose our source of lift for any sprinkles that might've made it through the deep layer of dry air.

2. Warm front moves north slower. Moisture has more time to infiltrate our area. Clouds keeps us a little cooler, which makes it easier for the surface to saturate in central Missouri. This is the scenario where our 15-20% chances of rain pan out.

3. Doesn't matter what warm front does, it's just too dry for any precipitation to make it to the ground. Cloud cover prevents deep mixing, but it gets really dry anyway (20-25% afternoon RHs) because there's two low-level jets converging overhead and that confuses the moisture and it gets lost, arriving a few hours late. This is the most likely scenario: slightly drier, higher fire weather concerns, no precipitation.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

After today, the warming trend will become quite noticeable, with temperatures rising to upper 60s and low 70s on Wednesday. From there, temperatures rise another 10 degrees into the upper 70s/low 80s on Thursday, and just keep rising from there as the ridge over the West moves overhead.

The strength of the ridge to our west will mean that it will take multiple attempts from the trough in the Pacific Northwest to succeed in fully undercutting the ridge. However, each attempt at undercutting will send a burst of shortwave energy through the upper Midwest, and there will likely be several embedded shortwave troughs that slingshot across the northern CONUS through the rest of the week. The extreme amplification of this ridge will make it difficult for any of the perturbations of the flow to be felt this far south, so we look to remain dry the rest of the week.

While we will see an increase in moisture through the week, with dew points in the 40s and 50s by Friday, a proportional increase in temperatures will keep RHs in the 25-35% range each afternoon. This will keep elevated fire weather conditions on our radar each day this week, with local variations in wind looking to be the main driving factor in any localized areas of significant fire weather that may develop any day this week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Calm winds overnight become southwesterly early Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts beginning after 18Z. High clouds will move in early Tuesday morning, with a broken mid-level deck (10kft) developing into the afternoon hours. Wind shear will increase after 00Z as flow from the nocturnal low-level jet converges with broader and stronger northwesterly synoptic flow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Record Low Temperatures:

March 17: KSGF: 13/1900 | Forecast: 17 KJLN: 16/1906 | Forecast: 19 KVIH: 8/1900 | Forecast: 14 KUNO: 18/1958 | Forecast: 18

Record Low Highs:

March 16: KUNO: 32/1970 Forecast: 31

Record High Temperatures:

March 19: KUNO: 81/1969 | Forecast: 79

March 21: KSGF: 88/1916 | Forecast: 84 KJLN: 91/1907 | Forecast: 86 KVIH: 85/1904 | Forecast: 81 KUNO: 79/2011 | Forecast: 84

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.