textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A late summer heat wave keeps daytime temperatures in the mid-90s to low 100s through at least Friday, with overnight lows only cooling to mid- to upper 70s in many areas.

- Daily 100+ degree heat indices lend to heat headlines all week, with a Heat Advisory in effect areawide from 12PM to 8PM on Monday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect from 12PM Tuesday through 8PM Friday.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area. Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to the fall fire weather season.

- Increasing confidence in above average temperatures (70-80% chance) and dry conditions continuing into mid-September.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Southwesterly flow has returned as ridging aloft builds eastward across the area, turning up the heat once again. The 21.75C 850mb temperature recorded on our 12Z KSGF sounding actually breaks the daily 12Z 850mb temp record, with 12Z CONUS upper air analysis indicating our placement along the northern 594dm contour that composes the heart of the ridge at 500mb. Backwards HYSPLIT analysis confirms that the layer of dry air aloft that can be seen on our 12Z sounding is in fact an elevated mixed layer that advected over our area from the Rockies, and the near-surface dry air mass is being mixed up to the bottom of the EML under mostly clear skies this afternoon. This afternoon mixing has slightly enhanced synoptic wind gusts caused by the tightening surface pressure gradient between a low in north- central Kansas and the sfc high over the eastern Tennessee Valley, with gusts up to 20-30 mph observed at times late this morning into early this afternoon.

Today/Tonight: Highs are approaching triple digits early this afternoon, but the dry air mixing down is helping to keep dew points in the low 60s to upper 50s across the area. These lowered dew points are preventing heat indices from climbing more than 2-3 degrees above the ambient temperature. Warmest temperatures are across areas of the plains to the north and west of the plateau, with temps and dew points staying a few degrees cooler within the slightly higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks. Widespread 25-35% RHs this afternoon could lead to elevated fire weather conditions across far southwest Missouri, where gusty winds overlap with the lower RHs. Lows tonight will only fall to the upper 60s along and south of the spine of the plateau, and the mid- to upper 70s across the plains areas to the north and west of the terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Heat: Heat remains the main story of the foreseeable future. Not much change from previous forecast cycles, with ensembles remaining in good agreement on the pattern through most of the week. Ridging aloft remains in place across the southeastern U.S., with a shortwave passing to the north of the Great Lakes region flattening the northern extent of the ridge midweek. The ridge builds back northwestward across the Central Plains behind the wave once it exits, perhaps getting a second a wind late in the week into next weekend. Even the AI global models/ensembles, which can sometimes be better at detecting the breakdown of persistent blocked highs like these at longer lead times, show no sign of true breakdown of the ridging through next weekend.

Heat starts really settling in tomorrow, with expected highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Some wind gusts up to 25 mph are expected again tomorrow, especially late morning. The mixing associated with peak heating will help to reduce dew points and overall heat indices, but even with this drier air mass, it's going to feel quite hot. 1-2 degree differences in temperature and/or dew point could result in us either overachieving our 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria, or staying just below it, but a large portion of the area will be flirting with or meeting criteria, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for 12 PM - 8 PM Monday with impacts in mind. The warmest temperatures and heat indices will be to the north and west of the plateau, with north of I-44/along I-49 providing a reasonable proxy.

Temperatures themselves don't necessarily increase as the week continues, moreso remaining steadily in the upper 90s/low 100s, but moisture does increase a bit as the week goes on, which does lead to an increase in heat indices through the week. Perhaps more notable is the lack of overnight relief, with nighttime temperatures only falling to 75-80 degrees across much of the area on Wednesday and Thursday. While repeated bouts of afternoon mixing could help keep heat indices down during the day and allow temperatures to fall lower at night in some areas, the combination of 5+ days of highly anomalous heat and the likely record-high overnight lows (see Climate section below) bring our HeatRisk well into the Major (Level 3 of 4) category and into Extreme (Level 4 of 4) levels in northern/western portions of the area every day this week. Right now, confidence is quite high in 100+ degree heat indices through the remainder of the week, but confidence is lower in the difference between 105+ and 100-104 degrees for Tuesday and beyond. As such, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued beginning 12 PM on Tuesday and continues through 8 PM Friday. This watch will be upgraded a Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning as confidence in exact heat index values at individual locations becomes more clear as the beginning of the week unfolds.

Beyond the forecast period, CPC continues to highlight 60-70% chances of above normal temperatures continuing through September 13 in their 8-14 Day Outlook.

Rain Chances (or lack thereof): NBM rain chances remain <30% through the next 7 days. One thing to consider with rainfall chances is that the shortwave to the north of the Great Lakes may disrupt the pattern enough to introduce low but mentionable PoPs Thursday and beyond, especially if the westward retrograde of the ridge behind that wave moves it far enough west to position us along its eastern edge, which might allow us to get some "ridge rider" storms. That being said, the most likely scenario progged by ensembles keeps us well under the influence of the ridge, and precip free, for at least the next week.

Drought/Fire Weather: The combination of prolonged hot and dry conditions will exacerbate the existing drought conditions, which have been in a degrading trend over the last several weeks. CPC and WPC continue to highlight rapid onset drought across the portions of our area that don't already have D1 or D2 drought conditions over the next 3-14 days. In addition to the obvious agricultural impacts from drought, another component to monitor is the potential early onset of the fall fire season as a result of early drying of fuels, especially fine fuels like grasses.

Moisture does slowly increase through this week, but Monday and Tuesday will see portions of our area reach minimum afternoon RHs between 25-35%. Be mindful of elevated fire weather concerns potentially materializing earlier than normal with these conditions this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light southeasterly winds become southwesterly around 12Z. Sustained speeds remain below 15 kts with infrequent 20 mph gusts possible. A few passing high clouds but mostly clear with no precipitation expected.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record High Temperatures In Jeopardy:

August 30: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 103/2000 KVIH: 99/2000

August 31: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 100/2000

September 1: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1953 KUNO: 101/2000

September 2: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1899 KUNO: 101/2000

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures In Jeopardy:

August 30: KSGF: 73/2013 KJLN: 76/1945 KVIH: 75/1951

August 31: KSGF: 76/2011 KJLN: 80/2011 KVIH: 75/1980

September 1: KSGF: 77/1922 KJLN: 80/2011 KUNO: 74/1989 KVIH: 76/2011

September 2: KSGF: 76/1922 KJLN: 77/1961 KUNO: 73/1980 KVIH: 75/1898

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011 KJLN: 77/1944 KUNO: 72/2023 KVIH: 74/1960

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913 KJLN: 77/1954 KUNO: 73/2021 KVIH: 74/1990

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998 KJLN: 77/1985 KUNO: 72/2012 KVIH: 78/1899

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

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