textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-60%) Friday night through Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Through Tonight: Broad southwest flow continues to persist in the mid-levels, with weak shortwave energy translating through the flow. This has spawned a few isolated sprinkles across the area, though most areas will remain completely dry with PoPs limited to less than 10%. Otherwise, another mild afternoon across the area with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s.

For tonight, clouds gradually scattered with warm air advection keeping lows in the middle to upper 50s west of Highway 65. Further east, lows dip into the middle to upper 40s.

Wednesday: Another warm day in the forecast for Wednesday as mid-level heights nudge towards 13-15C at 850mb. This will support highs 10+ degrees above normal for late October, in the upper 70s to around 80. Additionally, breezy south-southwest winds around 20 to 25 mph are expected across the western half of the area through Wednesday afternoon. Another mild night with lows in the 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Thursday-Friday: Additional weak shortwave energy translate through southwest flow into Thursday and Friday, though moisture return and forcing look to remain minimal with dry air persisting in the mid-levels. Ensemble guidance suggests the greatest forcing will be focused north and west of the area through Friday afternoon. Low PoPs (10-20%) glance the area, though most of the area remains dry.

The warmest day of the week comes on Thursday, with current forecast highs in the lower 80s. Above normal temperatures persist through Friday and the upcoming weekend, though a pattern change is on the horizon.

Saturday-Early Next Week: The mid-level trough and stronger shortwave energy move into the central CONUS this weekend. Stronger moisture influx into the area, as apparent with forecast PWATs around 1.25 to 1.5 inches. This environment will be supportive of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-60% chances) overspreading the area Friday night into Saturday morning from west to east. Rain chances persist through Saturday afternoon, with thunder/lightning limited. The better instability/shear remain suppressed south of the area on Saturday. The recent timing suggests rain chances dissipate Saturday evening into the overnight, though some adjustments remain likely as the event nears. For those partaking in outdoor activities, a rain jacket may be needed with scattered rain chances lingering around. Rainfall amounts look to remain light with this event. NBM probabilities depict the following for Friday night through Sunday:

Prob of > 0.10: 60-70% Prob of > 0.25 inch: 40-50% Prob of >0.50 inch: 30-40%

Drier weather into Sunday ahead of an active pattern returning early next week. Ensemble guidance vary on exact timing and placement of synoptic features, but there the general message remains on track for increasing rain chances (40-70%) early next week. Any rainfall would be beneficial to ongoing drought conditions, though it is too early to pin down rainfall amounts. Highs remain near or above normal into early next week for the first week of November.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An area of mid level clouds continue to translate through the area this afternoon, with a low chance (< 10%) for isolated sprinkles. Otherwise, confidence remains high in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Light south-southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.