textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-70%) at times across portions of the area from Friday night into Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early to the middle of next week but there is still uncertainty with with specific details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Continued warm and dry conditions for the most part through Friday as 850mb temps remain around 13-14C, resulting in high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s. For Friday, dry air will push in from the southeast, resulting in afternoon minimum RH values of 30-40% along/south of I-44, but winds will remain relatively light, keeping fire weather threats under control.

As weak disturbances move through the area, there is a 15-20% chance for light rain over central MO tonight and 15-30% over far southeast KS and far west-central MO on Friday. Dry air will limit potential, coverage, and amounts of rain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Better rain chances move in on Saturday into Saturday night as stronger shortwave energy moves in, along with greater moisture. There is a 50-70% chance for showers and storms, but coverage looks to be scattered and all day washouts are not expected. While some areas (particularly the far NW CWA) may have some areas that stay dry or see very little rainfall, other areas have seen a slight uptick in forecast precip amounts. Still, amounts will be light at 0.05-0.25 inches. A few thunderstorms will also be possible. Look for highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday.

Much of Sunday will be dry with highs in the 70s.

Still watching the potential for a strong system to move through the region early to middle of next week. Model spread is still significant with this system, with difference in all aspects of the system. Ensembles show surface low track locations ranging from northern Texas to the far northern CONUS. Ensemble clusters are showing little preference for one scenario over another, with differences in timing, strength, and track, made worse by multiple pieces of energy that may or may not phase and impact the system further. Outcomes generally range from a strong closed low moving into the area (worst case: Widespread rain, thunderstorms, maybe a severe and flooding risk) to a weaker, positively tiled upper wave (best case: Scattered showers and storms). Current NBM chances for showers and thunderstorms peak at 70-80%. Timing of greatest chances is currently Monday night into Tuesday, but that may change. Confidence is too low to discuss specifics, but those with interest should continue to monitor.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.