textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Near average temperatures the next few days. 30-60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Highest rain chances west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts generally less than 0.25inch.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (60-70% chance) expected next week, with the greatest chance of occurrence late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe weather and flooding potential is currently very low, but will need monitoring.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a messy/blocking pattern with an upper low spinning slowly east through the Carolinas, a ridge over the Central/Southern Plains and a trough over the southwest. An easterly low level flow continues across our area with a persistent stratus deck across the eastern ozarks. This is helping to keep temps in the lower 60s there. locations further west are seeing more sun and temps in the 70s.

Seasonable Temps and Low Rain Chances: The low level clouds across the east will slowly erode later this afternoon and evening with another ideal evening for outdoor activities. Overnight we will see a low level jet develop across Kansas and nose into Nebraska and form an area of showers and storms. This activity will slowly try to build/expand southeast with time Friday morning as the jet veers. The airmass is stable/drier over our area thanks to the low level easterly flow. Therefore for the most part, only sprinkles or a few light rain showers are expected west of Highway 65 during the day. Mid/high clouds will stream in during the day however temps should still reach the 70s north of Springfield to the lower 80s south of I-44. If clouds end up being thicker then temps may need to be adjusted down.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Friday Night Through Sunday's Rain Chances: Low level jet looks to set up again across Kansas into Nebraska Friday night. An area of showers and storms again looks to develop and try to advance east into the area Saturday. Highest rain chances are north of I-44 during the morning and afternoon hours. Many locations will remain cloudy but dry. A stronger shortwave looks to build down into Missouri on Sunday with slightly higher rain chances. While there are rain chances this weekend, it currently does not look like complete washouts or anything very impactful. Mean MU CAPE less than 1000j/kg should keep lightning chances low. Latest NBM also has about a 20-40% probability for 0.50inch or rain or more across southeast Kansas into western Missouri. Most locations will see less than 0.50inch of rainfall. Temps will be seasonable and while the NBM does have highs in the 80s, if clouds are thicker than these may need to be nudged down some.

Higher Rain Chances Next Week: Ensembles continue to suggest that a stronger system will move into the Rockies and eventually our region during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame next week. Confidence is high in the rain chances (currently 50-70%) however significant structural and timing differences in the trough are still evident (either a progressive/amplified trough or a closed off low). Alot of this is likely due to the uncertainty of the remnants of Hurricane Polo off the coast of Mexico. Guidance has this potentially curving northeast into the Baja and then getting absorbed into our system. If this does occur then it would amplify the amount of moisture available with the system. Latest CPC does indicate the potential for heavy rainfall with this system which would be welcome given the ongoing/worsening drought over a large portion of the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period, with some mid to high level clouds at times. Surface winds will be light and variable out of the east tonight before shifting out of the southeast by the morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.