textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon into tonight. Number of rounds, timing of highest severe risk, exact hazards, and intensity still hinges on how quickly morning convection dissipates, but most severe scenario involves large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes this afternoon into this evening.

- Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with primary hazard being large hail.

- Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery depict an upper-level trough moving across the western CONUS, with the base of the trough pushing into the Sonoran Desert of northwest Mexico. Along the eastern edge of the advancing trough, two centers of cyclonic rotation can be observed, one near Bismarck ND and the other near North Platte NE. Deep convection is ongoing in 4 locations across the Midwest and Southern Plains along two boundaries of interest: along a stationary/quasi-cold front across southern Iowa and Wisconsin and from southern Michigan into northern Ohio, and in the warm sector ahead of a dryline in south-central Texas and from central Oklahoma into the Ozarks. The convection in our backyard early this morning is a decaying MCV that brought strong to severe winds as it moved into the area early this morning.

Despite the cold pool of the late evening MCV bleeding the environment and completely depleting the instability in northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri, additional pockets of elevated convection are forming on the western edges of the MLCAPE gradient/remnant cold pool as 50-60kt LLJ advects warm, moist air overtop the more dense air mass. These storms upstream of our area are not expected to be able to sustain themselves very long in such a stable environment, but this second round of scattered, disorganized elevated convection will advance into our area this morning. Even if the morning convection doesn't persist very long in time or reach very far east, it will still have some residual effect on the ability and speed at which the environment destabilizes this afternoon. One other potential impact this AM convection could have would be leaving residual outflow boundaries or cold pools behind for storms to potentially form along this afternoon.

Model guidance across 00Z-06Z suites seem to point to three potential solutions for how today'afternoons setup evolves. From most to least likely/highest confidence to lowest confidence:

Outcome 1: Afternoon warm sector convection across our area, followed by line of storms that form as discrete/semi-discrete supercells in Kansas/Oklahoma and quickly grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours.

This afternoon convection would depend on morning convection stopping at some point so a capping inversion can develop aloft before being broken this afternoon. Despite widespread cloud cover, confidence is high in the cap being broken, and the remnant outflow boundaries/cold pools/surface convergence from morning convection would serve as a mechanism for storms to form off of in the afternoon without requiring the dryline to initiate. Storms would form as discrete initially, but quickly grow upscale into clusters. Coverage would be scattered enough to allow for the later round of storms to maintain their severe risk.

Straight hodographs earlier in the afternoon would support splitting supercells that would suggest more of a hail threat initially, and also implicate that storm mode becomes messy quickly. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes would be possible with the afternoon storm development, while damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes would be the hazards for the line of storms later in the evening. There could be a risk for strong tornadoes with any supercells that remain mature into the evening, when shear profiles become more curved in the low- levels.

Outcome 2: No afternoon warm sector convection, but the discrete/semi- discrete supercells in Kansas and Oklahoma form along the dryline as anticipated and grow upscale into a line and arrive during the evening hours.

This outcome would have a lower, but still not insignificant, severe risk compared to the first outcome. The timing of severe potential would be limited to the window where storms are moving into the area from Oklahoma/Kansas, with the hazards being damaging winds up to 70 mph and weak embedded tornadoes with the line.

Outcome 3: Continuous, non-severe warm sector convection continues all through the morning and afternoon hours, before upstream convection develops and arrives this evening.

When the upstream storms do arrive this evening, the atmosphere would be so washed out from continuous development that there would be a far lower to even no severe risk once it does arrive.

The line of storms that arrives overnight could have stratiform development behind the leading edge that lingers into the early morning hours on Thursday. The Eastern Ozarks could see a continued, low severe risk for elevated storms on Thursday. with a few CAMs hinting at the line moving out of the area fast enough tonight that the air mass could recover and see redevelopment by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Far to our northwest, GOES-West water vapor imagery shows another digging trough developing aloft over the Pacific Northwest, which will serve as the primary driving force for another widespread round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Plains on Friday. Confidence is high in this trough moving across the central US by Friday night, providing ascent for widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cold front finally displaces the persistent Bermuda High that has been blocking the pattern up.

The best chances for severe weather on Friday will be further north and west of a Joplin to Jefferson City line within an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk, which is closer to the cold front and more likely to see initiation and maintenance within the more favorable diurnal window of instability. Our position between the dryline that persists over the Southern Plains and the cold front pushing in from the north means a big question mark surrounding whether we will be a part of the dryline supercell club as part of that severe risk. Supercells would put large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on the table as potential risks prior to the cold front arriving to the area. If our severe risk is tied only to the cold frontal passage, that would implicate damaging winds and embedded spin-up tornadoes as the severe hazards of concern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An additional round of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the area to start the TAF period, with leading and trailing stratiform lightning strikes surrounding the deeper convective pockets. Brief MVFR ceilings may accompany the heavy rainfall, but return to VFR after rain moves east. However, MVFR ceilings (1500-3000ft) will return later this morning.

Additional low chances for shower and thunderstorm development return early this afternoon with a potential severe weather event unfolding again today. Confidence is low in coverage and timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon if storms even develop, but timing will be refined as mesoscale features and their influence on showers and storms become more clear over the morning hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 16: KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

April 16: KSGF: 66/1963

April 17: KSGF: 66/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.