textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost possible in the eastern Ozarks Saturday night.

- 50-70% shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Overall a pretty quiet period, but could see some periods of isolated showers as subtle shortwaves move down the NW flow aloft. Currently, chances are less than 15% and would favor central MO for highest potential.

Frost possible in the eastern Ozarks Saturday night. - Impacts: Potential for damage to sensitive vegetation. - Details: Lows in the mid 30s and frost potential in areas roughly south of I-44 and east of Hwy 65. - Confidence: NBM probabilities of min temps < 36 is 40-60% in the aforementioned areas.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

50-70% shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday night: - Impacts: Showers and thunderstorms. Outside potential for severe risk. - Details: Timing differences (as shown in cluster analysis) leads to potential from Monday night through Tuesday night, but greatest chances are on Tuesday. - Confidence: Medium confidence in seeing precipitation. Low confidence (<15% for any severe weather on Tuesday). - Meteorological Analysis: NW flow will give way to an upper trough and surface cold front moving through the central CONUS. This will lead to 50-70% chances for showers and storms with a < 15% chance of severe weather, both of which area highest on Tuesday. Severe storm chances are shown by some of the AI/ML guidance. Timing differences may push the threat earlier or later and also may change thermodynamics and increase/decrease severe chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.