textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph and afternoon humidity of 25 to 35 percent.

- Warming trend begins today, with well above normal temperatures returning through mid week.

- Rain chances (15-50%) return on Thursday with the highest chances east of Highway 65.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows northwest flow aloft with a ridge across the Rockies. Warm air advection was developing at 850mb as that flow begins to turn westerly. The latest SGF sounding did show warming in the mid levels along with a significantly dry airmass with a PW value of only 0.11in. Surface high pressure has shifted east of the area and winds have turned southerly. Skies were clear and areas east of Springfield in the valleys and wind protected areas were in the lower teens with locations west of Springfield in the lower 20s.

Today: An increasing pressure gradient will develop today with increasing southwest wind gusts as warm air advection continues. Latest bufkit soundings suggest the potential for wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the area today, especially west of Springfield. A few models even show wind gusts of 35mph at times across the Kansas/Missouri border. As is the case with strong departing surface highs, model guidance is too high with dewpoints therefore we have lowered them closer to the NBM10th percentile as we believe mixing will offset the advection from the southwest. Even with highs only in the middle/upper 40s, afternoon RH values of 25 to 35 percent are likely today. Lowest RH values are expected east of Springfield where some locations could drop to 20 percent. Given the ongoing drought/lack of rainfall and this humidity/wind combination, we believe the fire danger today will be elevated.

Tonight: A weak shortwave looks to slide through the area overnight and the latest HREF suggests increasing potential for some low/mid level clouds to slide through southern Missouri overnight. The clouds and light southerly winds should keep low temps in the 20s with perhaps a few teens in the typical cold spots/wind protected areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Tuesday through Wednesday: Mid level temps rise further with mean 850mb temps around 10C. Continued southerly winds should push high temps at least into the lower to middle 50s. If skies remain clear to partly cloudy then temps on Tuesday may need to be raised closer to the upper 50s. Another weak shortwave looks to slide through Tuesday night into Wednesday however no precip is expected given the dry airmass. Another mild day is expected Wednesday with temps at least into the middle to upper 50s which is about 10 degrees above average for middle December.

Thursday through Friday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that a strong shortwave will push southeast into the northern and central plains. A cold front is slated to move into the area on Thursday. Ensembles suggest that the highest moisture return/quality will be just east of the area however locations east of Highway 65 do have about a 20-50% chance of rain with this front. Given the progressive nature of the front, rainfall amounts would likely be light (less than 0.25inch). If this system were to slow down then we could see higher rainfall potential however this does not seem likely at this time. This frontal passage would then give us a glancing blow of cold air with highs being knocked back down closer to average for Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: Ensembles continue to suggest zonal flow with significant 850mb warm air advection potential for Saturday with 850mb temps around the 90th percentile for middle December. Latest NBM suggests highs potentially reaching 60 degrees. Another dry frontal passage then looks possible by Sunday however the bulk of the cold air looks to remain well north of the area for the foreseeable future with the CPC outlook favoring above normal temperatures continuing into the following week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to occur through the afternoon hours. The southwesterly winds are advecting in a warmer air mass. Low level moisture is also advecting north across central Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas late this morning. A band of MVFR ceilings have formed within this area of moisture advection and will spread northeast into the area from west to east late this afternoon into early this evening. These MVFR ceilings will then likely linger through the overnight hours before clearing Tuesday morning. The gusty winds will also decrease this evening and tonight but will occur again on Tuesday but will not be quite as gusty as today.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.