textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures and continued dry conditions through Tuesday.

- A more unsettled pattern sets up Tuesday night into next weekend as temperatures trend cooler with periodic rain chances.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation in the Feb 15th to 21st period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show the upper low that was over the Ontario/Quebec border last night has shifted southeast into New England early this morning. The upper ridge axis has flattened out a bit from last night as strong jet energy continue to push across the northern half of the west coast of the U.S. A closed low was cutoff from the main flow off the Baja coastline. An embedded upper level circulation was located over eastern MT/WY. At the surface, southeast winds were occuring across most of the CWA. In the west a warm front has lifted through. Temperatures were rnaging from the mid 30s in the east to the upper 40s in the far west where the front has moved through.

Today: The surface warm front will continue shift eastward overnight and through the day with a weak trough moving through late in the day. This will veer winds around to the west and northwest by late in the day. Some high cloud cover will continue for much of the day before clearing out late. Highs should reach the mid to upper 50s out east and the mid to upper 60s out west.

Tonight: Light and variable winds will become light and southerly towards morning. Sky should remain mostly clear with temperatures dipping into the low 30s (possibly some 20s in the valleys) out east to the mid and upper 30s in the west.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Unseasonably warm Monday and Tuesday: Strong low level warm advection sets up on Monday. Ensemble data in overall agreement with 850mb T from 10-12 deg C and 925mb T from 12-16 deg C which is over the 90th percentile from climatology. Local studies suggest these numbers would correlate with upper 60s to low 70s for highs which the NBM has for Monday. NBM 25th/75th percentile ranges from 70 to 74 degrees at SGF which look reasonable. We have maintained the NBM values with this forecast which range from the mid 60s in the east to the low/mid 70s in the west. Looking at records, this would keep most areas shy of record values (see climate section). Tuesday will be a bit more tricky with additional cloud cover and a frontal boundary moving through. NBM 25th/75th percentile have a much larger range from 63 to 73. We've kept the NBM forecast which brings highs from the low 60s in the north where the front will move through first to the low 70s in the south.

Rain chances this week: The week as a whole looks unsettled with a fairly zonal pattern over the CONUS with the main jet axis remaining north of the area until late in the week. Pops have trended downward from yesterday for the late Tuesday into Tuesday night system with pops of 20-50%. Some models are showing most of the precipitation remaining to our south. Better chances look to arrive later in the week into next weekend as the main jet axis shifts further south into the area. Temperatures will trend lower than the unseasonably warm readings we are expecting Monday and Tuesday, but still likely remaining around normal to slightly above.

Warmer conditions continue into week 2: Upper ridging and low level warm advection set up again heading into week 2 and ensemble temperatures anomolies continue to show 8 to 10 degrees above the mean.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

For the 06z TAFS, a low level jet was developing over the area ahead of a shortwave entering the northern plains. As a result, we'll see low level wind shear develop overnight into mid morning Sunday with shear in the lower 2000 feet up to around 45 kts. Surface winds will be around 10 to 15 kts overnight mainly out of the south and then veering to the southwest, west and eventually northwest by late afternoon. Some high clouds are expected, but we should remain in VFR through the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 114 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 9: KSGF: 76/1932 KJLN: 73/2000 KVIH: 69/2000

February 10: KSGF: 74/1999

Record Precipitation:

February 13: KJLN: 0.88/2001

February 14: KUNO: 1.46/1949

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.