textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east across the area this morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk with this morning activity.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through this morning for locations along and north of a Nevada to Versailles line where the heaviest rainfall occurred Wednesday evening into this morning.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur this morning and afternoon.

- There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening east of Highway 65, however confidence in storm development and coverage is low. - Another round of storms (some severe) are expected Friday evening and night. The highest chances for severe storms are expected along and northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri Line.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers and storms are currently occurring from northern Missouri into central Oklahoma early this morning. The activity is generally remaining across the western portions of the are currently, west of Highway 65. The activity has not move much east from Wednesday evening to now as a cap remains in place further to the east of the activity. Uncapped MUCAPE remains in place across the western portions of the area where the showers and storms area occurring. These are the locations that received the heaviest rainfall yesterday, so a flooding risk will continue mainly the northern portions of the area this morning, where a Flood Watch is remains in effect until noon today. The rain should moving out of these locations by noon, if not sooner, so no changes to the Flood Watch will occur. As an upper level trough moves east the cap will begin to erode allowing the the showers and storms to start to move east early this morning through the morning hours likely making it to the Highway 65 corridor this morning. Models show that the cap will remain in place further to the east through much of the morning, so this activity will likely weaken further as it moves into the eastern Ozarks this morning.

An upper level low is currently located across western Kansas early this morning. The low will northeast into Iowa by this afternoon. An area of surface low pressure is also located across western Kansas and will also move to the northwest into Iowa today. The pressure gradient will increase this morning and afternoon allowing winds to increase out of the south to southwest today. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will develop by mid morning and continue at times into the afternoon hours. If high enough mixing can occur there could be the potential for an isolate gusts up to 50 mph at times but with the showers and clouds in place this is a low potential at this time.

As surface front will move southwest into the area this morning/afternoon and will stall over the area. The front will stall near the I-44 corridor into this evening and will lift back to the north tonight. As the upper level trough move northeast across the plains the cap will weaken as instability increase across the area this morning into this evening ahead of the front. A drier air mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will build into the area today and will likely limited convection develop. Further east slightly better moisture will be in place and some scattered storm develop will be possible this afternoon and evening, generally east of Highway 65.. MLCAPE values will increase to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg this afternoon/evening. The deep layer shear will also increase today and will support the potential for severe weather if storms can develop. The front will just slowly move into the area and stall as the better upper air support moves off to the northeast. So forcing may not be all that strong across the area. Also, the drier air in the mid levels cloud limit how much of the instability that can be realized. Therefore, there are still question on storm development and coverage. If storms can develop and over come the dry air there would be the potential for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon into this evening, west of Highway 65. The main risk would be hail to the size of quarters and scattered damaging winds gusts. Low level shear will start to increase during the evening hours as a low level jet develops, if storms can develop and remain surface base and organized into this evening there could be a low tornado risk this evening west of Highway 63.

The front should lift back north of the area by Friday morning. Another upper level trough will move across the northern Plains on Friday and another area of surface low pressure will move northeast across the central Plains into Iowa on Friday. The pressure gradient will once again tighten across the area allow southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph to occur at times. A cold front will move east across Kansas on Friday afternoon as the low moves to the northeast and into and through and through the region Friday evening and night. Some lingering showers and a few storms could occur across the area Saturday morning behind the front before pushing off to the south. Instability will increase ahead of the front. A line of storms will likely develop along the front as strong forcing occurs with the front. The main risk will be damaging winds and and some hail up to the size of quarters. The better insatiability will be along and north of a Branson to Rolla Missouri line, where the better coverage in strong to severe wind gusts will occur, but at least a scattered damaging wind risk will occur to the southeast of this line Friday night. Low level shear will increase ahead of the front Friday evening and night as a low level jet develops. There will enough low level CAPE in place to to support a risk for a few spin up tornadoes within the line with any line surges to the east. The line will be moving fast so any heavy rain will be brief in nature, but locations that received heavy rainfall yesterday into today could see a localized flooding risk with this additional flooding risk.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A cooler air mass will move into the region behind the front this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 60s will occur this weekend, with some upper 50 readings possible in spots. Highs will warm into the middle 60s to near 70 early next week. Lows are expected to drop into the 30s Sunday and Monday mornings with light winds. There could be some frost potential each morning as the NBM is showing a 20-50% (low to moderate) chance of temps dropping below 36 degrees both those mornings.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An area of weakening showers and storms continue to slowly move east across western and central Missouri early this morning. This activity will continue to move east this morning, and should further weaken as it moves into the eastern Ozarks. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with the storms and and showers this morning. With the activity weakening as it moves east it may be more short lived at any given location.

Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur today and increase by mid morning this morning and afternoon with winds gradually weakening this evening into tonight.

Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly east of Highway 65 if not east of Highway 63. The mornings convection may limit redevelopment later today and if storms can develop coverage could be limited.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055-056-066- 067.