textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance (less than 30 percent) for an afternoon or evening storm south of I-44 today. Higher chances (40-70%) Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with localized heavy rainfall. - Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend with heat indices in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a strong mid level high across the northern plains, stretching back into the Rockies with an upper level low over Mississippi. A dry mid level airmass remains in place across the area which was evident on the 12z SGF sounding. Higher moisture was evident east of the area with a PW value of 1.82 inches at Nashville, TN. Surface winds remained out of the east with dewpoints generally in the 60s. Moisture was slowly increasing from the southeast and a cumulus field has developed. Temps have warmed into the 80s.

Afternoon/Evening Rain Chances Today and Wednesday: The upper level low will continue to slowly move west today however it has trended a little slower which will keep the isolated shower/storm potential lower for this afternoon/evening across south central Missouri. Most locations will remain dry.

On Wednesday, the upper low and higher moisture quality will inch closer to the area. HREF mean PW values greater than 1.75 inches will likely arrive and given ML CAPE around 1500j/kg, would expect a cumulus field to develop quickly in the morning with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing in the afternoon and evening hours. The highest chances will be along and south of Interstate 44. Pulse severe potential is low generally due to the lack of stronger instability therefore the main concern will be with any slow moving storms that can produce heavy rainfall rates over a long enough period of time for localized flooding. The latest HREF PMM data shows several very small/localized pockets of 1-2 inches of rainfall with many other areas seeing less than that. Higher rainfall pockets (greater than 2 inches) seem to be favored further south in Arkansas, closer to the center of the low. Clouds and precip will likely keep high temps lower than previous days with the exception of Kansas and western Missouri.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Rain Chances Thursday: While the main low/disturbance will be west of the area, additional pieces of energy look to rotate through the area a little longer into Thursday. Therefore a similar day to Wednesday is shaping up with afternoon and evening scattered storms. Rain chances have now increased into the 40-70% range. Given slow storm motions and high PWs, locally heavy rainfall should occur and the WPC now has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This could result in localized flooding. Clouds and precip should keep high temps in the 80s again with a few locations west of Springfield pushing 90.

Higher temps Friday into the Weekend: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to depict an upper ridge attempting to re establish itself across the Rockies. This would favor surface temps climbing closer to 90 if not reach the lower 90s by Saturday. While heat indicies are currently forecast to only reach the upper 90s to around 100, the heat risk tool show potential for the area to reach the moderate to major category. Rain chances are currently less than 20 percent given the strength of the warm air aloft. However we will need to monitor for the potential return to northwest flow aloft next week if the ridge shifts further west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with increasing cumulus around 4-6kft. There is a low chance for a shower or storm this evening at BBG however higher chances return to the TAF sites just after the end of this TAF period. Winds will remain light out of the east with speeds generally less than 12kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.