textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog development is likely off the Ozark Plateau tonight into Tuesday morning. There is a 40 to 70% chance visibilities drop below 1/2 mile for these locations.

- Steady warming trend with record highs possible mid- to late week. Clouds may result in temperatures being a little cooler than forecasted.

- Signal emerging for fog/drizzle to occur again Wednesday morning, though additional details are limited.

- Gusty winds return for Christmas Eve and Christmas, with sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1251 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Synoptic Overview:

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will give way to broad upper-level ridging this evening into Tuesday. Upper-air analysis also indicates a subtle shortwave impulse over the Plains translating east into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, the associated surface low was spinning over northern Nebraska and South Dakota with its attendant warm front extending to the southeast.

Warm and moist advection will occur this afternoon as the ridge deepens and heights rise. The stratus deck that was blanketing much of Missouri and eastern Kansas this morning continues to break up the afternoon with the clearing line steadily pushing east through the region. The modestly breezy winds this morning will wind down throughout the afternoon and evening coincident with the warm air advection.

Fog Tonight:

Clouds will build in again overnight as low-level saturation increases. With continued moisture advection, fog development appears likely. The most favorable areas for fog will be off the Ozark Plateau where temperatures will be cooler; particularly, locations across western Missouri and eastern Kansas may have the best shot at seeing dense fog as they experience the longest period of radiational cooling (clear skies). Indeed, 12Z HREF probabilities of visibilities less than 1/2 mile are highest (40-70%) are highest for these areas.

The one fly in the ointment with all of this is that models have struggled mightily in handling the moisture advection so far today; that is, they have been too quick to advect moisture northward, which is a common problem for our forecast area. The very latest model runs do seem to be slowly catching on, however, so perhaps the 00Z data will prove more useful in decision-making.

Even Warmer Tuesday:

Temperatures will continue to climb on Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge builds and mid-level heights rise. NBM percentile data support highs in the mid 60s to low 70s areawide. These temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees above the climatological average. We'll have to watch to see if or how long any morning fog hangs around which could muck up the temperature forecast. Regardless, well above-normal temperatures are here.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Temperatures: The upper level ridge continues to build over the central CONUS midweek, with 850mb temperatures between 16C-18C on Wednesday, and up to 19.5C Thursday. This will lead to potential record- breaking temperatures in the low to mid 70s both days (see climate section below for current records). Confidence in these temperatures is medium-to-high, as the ECMWF MaxT EFI maxes out to 0.99-1.00 Thursday, and 0.9-0.95 Wednesday and Friday, highlighting the anomalous nature for this time of year. Additionally, the NBM interquartile spread only highlights a 3-4 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles Wednesday and Thursday, with the 25th percentile currently tying the current record (74 degrees) on Thursday. It should be noted that moisture return/cloud cover will be a large determining factor in how warm we get (and if we tie/break current record temperatures). Higher res models are depicting some low-level moisture filtering into the area, which could increase the cloud cover, bring fog/drizzle potential, and keep temperatures several degrees lower than what we're currently forecasting. Confidence in the exact details remains low at this point as we're still ironing out the mesoscale details that would influence these differences - regardless, it'll be a warm Christmas holiday here in the Ozarks.

Drizzle potential: With moisture returning to the area, some patchy drizzle/fog will be possible Wednesday morning, however confidence in any widespread dense fog remains low at this time. Winds will be a factor in where/if this can play out - currently, the better chances for any fog development looks to be over the eastern Ozarks where wind speeds remain light overnight. By Christmas morning, winds increase enough to hinder any widespread dense fog, however we'll keep an eye on things to see if anything changes.

Winds: Another feature for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be windy conditions, with sustained southwesterly winds between 15-20mph and gusts up to 20-30mph (higher end of that range west of Highway 65). Minimum relative humidities look to remain in the 50-60% range, so we're not too concerned about any fire danger at this time.

Next Weekend and beyond: An upper level trough then looks to pivot southeast out of British Columbia towards the end of the week, with the associated upper low traversing towards the Great Lakes region. This should drag a cold front through the area Saturday night into Sunday, however there still remains many discrepancies regarding precipitation potential (current pops in the 20-30% range) and temperatures (large interquartile spreads). We'll have to keep an eye out on how things pan out as we continue through this week to get a better idea of potential outcomes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A MVFR stratus cloud deck is currently moving across portions of southern Missouri. The northern edge of this cloud deck could affect the KSGF and KJLN sites but the better chances will be south including the KBBG site through the overnight hours. Early Tuesday morning some MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings will move over the entire area, then will dissipate during the afternoon hours. Some patchy fog could be possible late tonight into Tuesday morning mainly across portions of south central Missouri and also northwest of the area. Low level wind shear will also impact the area overnight into early Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Record Warm Maximum Temperatures:

December 23: KSGF: 72/1982 KJLN: 73/1982 KVIH: 68/1904 KUNO: 68/1996

December 24: KSGF: 74/1955 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/2021 KUNO: 74/1955

December 25: KSGF: 74/1889 KJLN: 72/2016 KVIH: 71/1971 KUNO: 74/2021

December 26: KSGF: 68/2008 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/1971 KUNO: 73/1971

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

December 24: KSGF: 54/1889 KJLN: 58/2021 KVIH: 52/1982 KUNO: 54/2023

December 25: KSGF: 58/1889 KJLN: 52/2016 KVIH: 46/2019 KUNO: 47/2021

December 26: KSGF: 54/1942 KJLN: 56/1954 KVIH: 55/1971 KUNO: 50/2019

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.