textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Highs in the middle to upper 80s through the upcoming weekend.

- Daily humidity values will drop into the 20-35% range however light winds (gusts less than 15mph) will keep the fire weather threat limited.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

At 1245 pm, temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints ranged from the low 40s to low 50s across southern and central Missouri. Mixing will continue to deepen over the next couple hours, perhaps bringing relative humidity (RH) values below 20% in spots - lowest east of Highway 65. While this will make for easier fire starts, winds, remaining generally less than 10-15 mph, will limit fire danger on the whole. Otherwise, expect daytime highs in the low 80s later this afternoon, followed by a sharp drop in temperatures after sunset as the dry airmass and lack of clouds favor efficient radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

West-northwest flow aloft will advect a warmer airmass into the region tomorrow, with the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system mean bringing 850mb temperatures into the 17-18 degC range. Forecast soundings suggest that during the afternoon we'll mix into this warm layer to bring surface temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, a decaying cool front will approach the area from the north tomorrow night into Thursday, and as high pressure settles over Iowa the local area will see a return to northeast surface winds which may keep it slightly cooler Thursday afternoon - particularly north of Highway 60. Friday, however, the unseasonable warmth will surge back northward to encompass the entire area as ridging strengthens over the Mississippi River Valley and deep southwest flow consequently overtakes the local area. Given the continued dry weather, drought conditions will worsen throughout the week.

Uncertainty increases in the weather over the weekend as models struggle to handle phasing between a cutoff low lifting north out of Arklatex and a tropical system currently evolving over the southwest Gulf. Spaghetti plots from various hurricane models suggest invest 92L, which the NHC gives nearly 100% chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone (TC) over the next 48 hours, will move north across the Lower-Mid Mississippi Valley before getting lifted northeastward across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. Given most guidance keeps the track to our east, it remains unclear whether we'll see (and if so, then how much) rainfall from this feature, but probabilities of measurable rain from the National Blend of Models (NBM) range from less than 5% across far western Missouri to 40% across areas east of roughly Highway 63.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR through the period with variable winds overnight. Southwesterly winds increase near 10 knots for Wednesday afternoon and return back to variable after 00z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.