textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-60% coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with localized heavy rainfall. - Warm and mostly dry this weekend with highs returning to the 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees. Hottest conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100, lows in the mid to upper 70s, and heat index values around 100-105.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge shifting west into the Rockies. There is shortwave energy currently located over Missouri. A very moist airmass is in place across the area with the 12z KSGF sounding measuring a PW value of 1.91in. As of early afternoon, convective temps have been reached and scattered showers and storms have been developing over the area.

Showers and Storm Chances Today and Friday: Would expect additional scattered showers and storms to form over the area during the afternoon and early evening. Slow storm motions to the north will occur. Much like yesterday, very localized areas could see 2-3 inches of rain in a short period of time. Latest high res data suggests locations along and north of Highway 54 have the highest chances of seeing these localized higher amounts of rain. Most areas will see much less than that but areas that do get the quick burst of rain could see a localized flood threat. WPC continues the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Pulse severe diagnostics suggest a very low chance for a storm to produce wind gusts to 30-50 mph.

Mid level heights do begin to rise some on Friday however there will be a weakening low level jet in the morning that could allow for isolated showers and storms. Chances are much lower for tomorrow versus today (less than 30 percent) however will need to assess updated high res data to pin down any areas that could see higher/lower chances. Otherwise, temps should be warmer with highs in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mostly Dry and Hot: Ensemble cluster analysis continues to depict an upper ridge attempting to re establish itself across the Rockies for the weekend into early next week. This would favor surface temps climbing into the upper 80s to warmer 90s for the weekend.

Warmer 850mb temps aloft look to arrive on Monday (mean 850mb temps higher than 22C) which would allow for high temps reaching the lower to middle 90s early next week. While there could be a few areas reach the upper 90s, we think that given the green vegetation, the potential for upper 90s or higher is low.

Heat indicies are currently forecast to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s and the heat risk tool show potential for the area to reach the moderate to major category this weekend but especially early next week. We will need to monitor for the potential for any Heat Advisories next week. Rain chances are currently less than 20 percent given the strength of the warm air aloft.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

There is a 15-20% chance for isolated showers and storms during the day Friday, which is too low to include in the forecast. As such, mainly expecting VFR conditions, but could see temporary lowered conditions under any convection.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.