textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably pleasant and dry conditions with near-normal temperatures in the 70s to mid-80s continuing through the rest of the week.

- Continuing to monitor pattern trends of 50-60% rain chances this weekend.

- Round of showers and thunderstorms expected sometime early next week, with the greatest chance of occurrence on Tuesday (60-70%). Severe weather potential is currently very low, but will need monitoring.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts pronounced ridging having developed over the Great Plains with a localized northwesterly jet streak currently over Missouri as a very subtle mid-level shortwave is currently rounding an upper-level low over the lower Great Lakes States. At the surface, any sign of frontal boundaries are well off to the south and west of the area, promoting continued northeasterly flow and "cooler", more seasonable air. Residual moisture within this cool air mass has promoted low-level stratus and light patchy fog development the past few mornings. These have since burned off for the most part as daytime mixing has commenced. Despite meager cloud cover this afternoon, highs are on track to be in the lower 70s to lower 80s across the area.

Seasonably pleasant and dry conditions rest of this week:

As the ridging over the Plains amplifies and becomes more meridional, it will only somewhat slowly translate eastward, keeping east-northeasterly surface flow over our area, locking in the cooler air mass. Highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows in the 50s are forecast to persist through Friday night before a warm front begins to press toward the area.

Much like the past few mornings, some patchy fog and/or low stratus are possible late each night and early each morning through the Friday period, but anything in the way of dense fog is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Monitoring 50-60% rain chances late this weekend:

The ridge forecast to be over the region Thursday and Friday is progged to be quite amplified/meridional. Global ensemble members are depicting a low-amplitude shortwave trough to progress through the west side of this ridge Friday and Saturday. This will shove a warm front eastward toward our area and bring 50-60% chances of showers and storms this weekend.

Due to the amplified, but thin and meridional nature of the ridge paired with the low amplitude of the wave, model members have been struggling a bit on timing and placement of the shortwave trough. However, in deviation from the forecast 24 hours ago, models do seem to be converging on the scenario of the shortwave taking an east- southeastward turn as it enters Kansas and Missouri, leading to increased confidence in seeing some sort of precipitation this weekend (chances are up from 20-40% 24 hours ago).

While members have converged a bit on a solution, the timing continues to be pushed back towards the late Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe. During this time, while the surface warm front will not be quite in our region yet, the elevated warm front should be in the area, with a 25-30 kt nocturnal low-level jet developing over the area. This should produce at least scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Saturday. At the moment, both instability and shear look a tad meager in global model ensemble members, keeping any appreciable severe risk very low for this round of rain chances.

Shower and thunderstorm potential sometime next week:

Following the initial low-amplitude wave, almost all ensemble clusters depict a deep and meridional trough swinging through the CONUS early next week, which will trigger stronger southerly surface flow and warm air advection as the ridge pivots eastward. This will briefly increase highs toward the middle and upper 80s Sunday and Monday.

While all model members depict a potent trough and front moving through, there are some differences on timing. Earliest appears to be Monday night (15-40% chance), mean timing is Tuesday into Tuesday night (60-70% chance), and latest is Wednesday night or Thursday morning (15-30% chance). The dynamic nature of the trough and front will surely produce some showers and thunderstorms, but the severe risk is still up in the air. shear will be plentiful as is per usual for entering fall season, but instability on global models looks a tad meager. Trends will continue to be monitored, but a decent amount of rain looks likely whenever the front moves through as the CPC forecasts a 50-60% chance for above normal precipitation for the period. For some context, though, normal precipitation for the period is 0.75-1.00 inches. Since the front is expected to move through rather quickly (chances are spread amongst days due to timing differences in ensembles), this equates to a 50-60% chance for at least 0.75-1.00 inches in some areas with this round of precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery shows low-level stratus clouds almost completely dissipated around TAF sites, leaving only a FEW/SCT cu field at 2-3 kft. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected for the first part of the 18Z TAF period. Low-level (IFR) clouds and patchy light fog (fluctuating between 4 and 8 SM) are possible again between 09-16Z, mainly at SGF and BBG (40-50% chance via latest short- term model guidance).

Otherwise, winds will remain out of the east northeast at 5-10 kts for the entire TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.