textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Despite weak winds tonight, cold overnight temperatures in the teens will bring single digit wind chills again tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures quickly rebound to near to slightly above average during the middle of the week.

- Upcoming late week into the weekend precipitation chances (20-45%), however a LOT of uncertainty still remains with thermal profiles, moisture, and timing of upper energy.

- Increasing likelihood (75-90% chance) for much below normal temperatures this weekend. NBM spreads forecast lows anywhere between -5 and 15 F, with highs anywhere between 10 and 25 F.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

An absolute bowling ball of a vertcially-stacked trough continues to churn away across North America with a 120-140 kt jet streak stretched across the Ohio River Valley into Missouri. At the surface, a cold front is currently over the I-44 corridor moving to the southeast. Both radar and satellite imagery depict bands of low clouds and light flurries occurring along the front. Additionally, surface observations have recorded brief gusts up to 20-40 mph right along the front. These winds will usher cold air back into the region for today. The temperature/moisture gradient can be easily seen surging southeast on infrared satellite imagery.

Cold today/tonight with single digit wind chills Tuesday morning:

Temperatures behind the cold front will bring lows tonight into the teens. Increased northerly winds behind the front of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph will bring morning wind chills down to -5 to 10 F before 9 AM.

During the day, cloud cover will increase as a surface high pressure system traverses the area. This will keep high temperatures cold in the 20s, with the coldest temperatures toward central Missouri.

Temperatures then drop back into the teens tonight. Winds will be lighter, though, and out of the southwest. This will keep wind chills overnight into Tuesday morning a bit more reasonable between 0 and 15 F.

Localized areas may see elevated fire weather conditions today:

The air will continue to be dry today with afternoon relative humidity values forecast to be between 25-30% with a 20-40% for some areas to see RHs below 25%. Winds, however, are forecast to be strongest before 12-2 PM. Therefore, fire weather ingredients will be slightly displaced temporally for elevated fire risk. That said, there could be some overlap of elevated conditions between 12 and 4 PM as winds diminish and the afternoon air becomes driest.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Temperatures rebound to near to slightly above average mid-week:

The longwave pattern is progged to stay relatively constant through mid-week, however, global models keep shortwaves and the jet stream a bit further north than the past few barrage of shortwaves we've had. As a result, the surface temperature gradient will lift northward, rebounding temperatures to near to slightly above average through Thursday. NBM interquartile spreads are fairly confident on high temperatures ranging in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday, with the warmest day being Wednesday when some areas along the southern border may see temperatures above 50 F (35-55% chance). Lows during this period are forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday night, and in the 20s Wednesday and Thursday night.

As previously mentioned, any shortwave that moves through is forecast to be north of the area. One such shortwave is progged to move through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions Wednesday. While the main focus of lift will be north of the area, a trailing cool front will still drop through the region. This may bring some showers to the region, particularly southeast of I-44, which is where the front will be during the afternoon. Current NBM probabilities have less than 15% for this region, however, medium-range CAMs like the NAMNest and RRFS suggest some scattered showers are possible.

In-depth discussion on 20-45% precipitation chances this weekend:

There's still a great deal of uncertainty and flip-floppingness in models with the evolution of the system late this week into the weekend. That said, it is falling within the 5-76 day timeframe, and there are a few notable things coming out of the ensemble mean and cluster fields.

Firstly, the general synoptic pattern depicted by the mean LREF and AIGEFS/HGEFS is pretty similar to our Ice Storm Climatology with a broad positively-tilted trough over the west CONUS, a strong jet streak in the vicinity of the Great Lakes Region, and a strong Arctic high pressure across the northern Plains. No need to panic yet, though, as there's still a great deal of uncertainty in the clusters that could deviate from this mean solution. Furthermore, if the mean field does somewhat pan out, the main differences are a further south jet streak and anomalously strong surface high pressure system. In fact, ESATs reveal that 25% of GEFS and 64% of ENS members forecast a record high surface pressure over the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. The strength of this high along with a further south jet streak would point more toward a suppressed southern track with mostly snow or nothing at all for our area. Indeed, some members (including the operational GFS/ECMWF depict this scenario with freezing rain staying well south of our area).

Secondly, ensemble clusters and AI vs. Dynamical ensembles seem to show two "broad-brushed" scenarios. I say "broad-brushed" as there are many different scenarios in between, but these are the two averaged scenarios. The two scenarios essentially depend on how a closed low coming out of the eastern Pacific interacts with the positively-tilted wave over the northwest CONUS.

Average Scenario 1: Most AI models along with less than half of dynamical models depict a scenario where the closed low has stronger phasing with the wave, injecting more of its energy downstream across the south-central CONUS. This scenario features greater QPF values along with a more northward track. While this trend will certainly be monitored, there is a caveat to it with most the AI members depicting this scenario. If such an anomalous surface high pressure system does pan out, AI models will have a more difficult time pinning down a good forecast due to the limited events in their training datasets that match. With extreme solutions, the dynamical models may be a better go-to. Of note, the deterministic Euro is closest to this scenario, which brings a decent amount of snow to our region. The Extreme Forecast Index is latching onto this signal with values of 0.5-0.6, which isn't particularly high, but there is a shift of the tail which signals that some members are showing "extreme solutions".

Average Scenario 2: More than half of the dynamic models depict a slower or more lagging closed low, leading to weaker phasing with the wave. This scenario leads to lower QPF values, but also a more suppressed and southward track of the storm system, bringing us next to nothing. Of note, the deterministic GFS is closest to this scenario which keeps much, if not all, of the precipitation south of our area.

It's important to note that the deterministic models were used as examples resembling the two clusters. There will still be modulations in the forecasted evolution between now and then, but the scenarios above are the two favored scenarios with the current data. Models generally handle closed low evolutions terribly even up to 1-2 days before a system, so monitor the forecast closely. As of now, the probability of precipitation is 15-45% from Friday morning to Sunday morning, with the most agreement Friday night (30-45% chances).

75-90% chance for below normal temperatures this weekend:

Regardless of the details int he storm system evolution, with a good number of members forecasting an anomalously strong Arctic high pressure system to move through the Great Lakes, it will not be difficult for below normal temperatures to sink into the region. The CPC currently has us in a 75-90% chance for below normal temperatures as NBM box and whisker plots continue to sink to lower temperatures. The current deterministic forecast calls for highs in the 20s to 30s Friday and Sunday, and in the teens Saturday. 25th-75th percentile spreads range anywhere from 10 to 25 F highs those days and the Extreme Forecast Index is at 0.75-0.9 with a shift of the tail, so there is certainly potential for even lower temperatures. Additionally, deterministic lows are already in the single digits Friday and Saturday night. While it's still too far out to say anything of worth about exact wind speeds during the coldest timeframe, but the LREF does spit out a 30-50% chance of reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria Friday night into Saturday morning (less than -10 F).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Current satellite imagery shows mid-level clouds moving into the TAF sites as a cold front clears south of the area. This cold front is bringing 10-15 kts northerly winds with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times. These winds will continue through 16-19Z before diminishing to light and variable by 00Z. All the while, clouds will stay within VFR range, varying in coverage throughout the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.