textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return Tuesday (30-70%) with additional chances through the end of the week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain.

- The area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Localized flooding will be a concern for locations that see multiple rounds of rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Current synoptic analysis shows the upper level low now over Quebec, Canada with its associated shortwave east of the area. As a result, surface high pressure filtered in behind the trough on Sunday, which will continue to positively influence the weather conditions for the Holiday as midlevel heights rise with an upper level ridge building over the region.

Satellite imagery shows some mid to high level clouds filtering up into the area during the early morning hours. Can't rule out some patchy fog over the eastern Ozark valleys early this morning, however widespread dense fog isn't expected.

Today will be a pleasant and dry day, with highs in the upper 70s (eastern Ozarks) to low 80s (everywhere else). Some locations closer to the MO/AR border could reach the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Daily rain chances return starting on Tuesday as a prominent upper closed low pushes onto the west coast and a weaker upper level low to our south moves up into the region. As a result, the frontal boundary that pushed through a couple days ago and set up to our southeast will begin to lift back up into the area, with moisture returning once again. Ensemble guidance has rain chances (20-50%) increasing late Tuesday morning, and ramping up (50-80%) by the afternoon and evening for areas mainly along/south of I-44. With PWAT values around 1.5in, rainfall rates could be fairly efficient, however we're not expecting an all-day washout or widespread flooding by any means. No severe weather is expected either, as both instability and shear remain relatively limited, however some thunderstorms can be expected, with lightning as the primary hazard.

Several spokes of upper level energy from the closed low over the western CONUS will allow for daily rain chances through the rest of the week and into the weekend. With the closed low to the west and another closed low over the northeast, an Omega blocking pattern looks to set up towards the end of the week, which leads to some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the rainfall chances. Regardless, each day has at least roughly a 50-70% chance of rainfall, with higher chances (70-90%) Thursday and Friday. Once again, these won't be all-day washouts, and many will see periodic breaks in the rain. With rainfall in the forecast daily, WPC has highlighted portions of our area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall each day to account for the localized flooding potential for areas that receive repeated rounds.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as surface high pressure continues over the area. Expect east- southeast surface winds between 5-8kts during the day, with light and variable winds overnight tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.