textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized frost possible in the eastern Ozarks tonight.

- Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday and Monday.

- Additional low end severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper wave has pushed through the the area with the main low over Ontario/Quebec. Deep northwest flow was into the region from Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the northern and central plains and into the northern and mid Mississippi valley region. Upper level ridge axis was west of the northwest flow with another low off the Oregon/northern California coast. The northwest flow pattern has helped to draw another cold front through the area this morning and was now south of Missouri with high pressure building into the area at the surface.

Tonight: This high pressure system will move overhead tonight with winds becoming light and variable this evening through much of the overnight. Temperatures should drop into the upper 30s to low 40s over the area tonight, though some of the favored low lying areas in the eastern Ozarks may dip into the mid 30s tonight with patchy frost. Widespread frost is not expected over the area with probabilistic data from the HREF/NBM all showing temperature probabilities of less than 37 degrees at 20 percent or less.

Sunday-Sunday night: The surface ridge axis will shift south of the area and we'll start to see southerly winds become gusty during the daytime. Temperatures should warm into the mid 70s to around 80 during the afternoon which will increase the instability over the area. Gulf moisture return looks to be rather limited, but potentially enough with frontal convergence and upper level energy moving into the area from the north for some scattered convection during the mid afternoon into the early evening. Instability and shear look sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with hail the most likely risk if the moisture is sufficient for storms to develop.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The upper pattern will begin to transition on Monday as the upper low off the California coast begins to push inland which is associated with a strong southern stream jet. This will begin to phase in with northern stream energy dropping south out of Canada into the northern plains with a more westerly to southwesterly flow aloft over the area Monday night into Tuesday. A frontal boundary will become aligned southwest to northeast across the area while Gulf moisture returns to the area and interacts with the frontal boundary and upper energy. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the area for Monday night through Wednesday. Can't rule out some strong to possibly severe storms although widespread severe is not expected at this time.

The main upper trough should push through Wedneday night into Thursday morning and should shift the precipitation to the east of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

For the 18z TAFS, front has shifted south of the area and a mid level shortwave was exiting the eastern Ozarks. There are a few cumulus over the northeast half of the CWA with some remnant low level moisture. Added some cumulus at SGF but otherwise should remain skc. May have some gusts up to 18-20 kts this afternoon, but should diminish to light and variable this evening through much of the overnight as high pressure moves over the area. As this high moves south of the area on Sunday morning, the pressure gradient will tighten up and will become gusty out of the south through the day, with some gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.