textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the area through 7 AM Tuesday. Heat index values around 105 to 115 degrees are expected.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect across the area from 7 AM Tuesday through 7 PM Tuesday as afternoon and early evening heat index values range from 100 to 110 degrees.

- Isolated storms will be possible across portions of central Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening though coverage will remain limited. A strong storm with gusty winds will be possible but the better chances will be east of the area.

- Some shower and thunderstorm chances (10-20%) will occur across portions of the area on Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) will then occur late Thursday into Saturday at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper level ridge of high pressure remains in place just to the west of the area. The hot air mass remains in over the region as 850mb temperatures are in the mid 20C. As a result temperatures will be similar to yesterday as highs warm into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon into early this evening. A drier air mass will be in the low levels of the atmosphere today and more mixing should occur today than occurred on Sunday. Therefore, dewpoints and humidity values should be lower today. Afternoon RH values are expected to drop into the 35 to 45% range and it is possible a few areas could drop to the around 30% this afternoon. South to southwesterly winds with gusts up to around 20-25mph will occur at times this morning through the afternoon with the expected mixing. As a result of more mixing today heat index values should be slightly less than what occurred across the area yesterday. Afternoon and early evening heat index values will generally be in the 100 to 110 degree ranges this afternoon, though a few locations could see heat index values top out around 115 degrees today. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the area today.

A cap will be in place across the area today, but some uncapped elevated instability will develop north and east of the area and cloud clip portions of central Missouri this afternoon/early this evening. Some isolated storms will be possible to the north and east of the area and could clip portions of central Missouri late this afternoon into early this evening. Coverage should remain limited across the area and it is also possible the cap remains stronger today and no storms move into the area. There will be the potential for a strong storm with gusty winds if storms can make it into portions of central Missouri but this is a low risk as MLCIN remains high over the area today. The rest of the area should remain dry today as the cap remains in place.

Lows tonight into Tuesday morning are only expected to cool into the 70s to near 80 degrees again as the hot air mass remains in place over the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The ridge of high pressure will start to move back to the west slightly tonight into Tuesday. This will leave the area more in the upper level northwest flow. A weak front is expected to move south towards the area as an upper level disturbance moves through the northwest flow on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorm development will be possible across the central Plains this evening into tonight ahead of the upper level disturbance. There will be the potential for this activity to move southeast into the area Tuesday. The activity will likely be weakening as it moves towards the area, if it can make it into the area. Some uncapped elevated instability may remain in place across the area on Tuesday therefore there will be the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms to be possible at times on Tuesday, and with peak heating some scattered afternoon/evening storms redeveloping will be possible too.

The hot air mass will remain in place across the area again on Tuesday, but with the potential for increased clouds and some rain potential for some of the area, temperatures could be cooler on Tuesday. However, if the rain does not develop and if clouds dissipate during the afternoon hours, the hotter conditions will occur again on Tuesday with highs in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. Less mixing may occur on Tuesday, so it is possible for heat index values to warm to around 110 degrees again Tuesday afternoon/early evening where plenty of sunshine occurs. But if more clouds occur through the afternoon/early evening hours temperatures and heat index values will be cooler. Will continue the Heat Advisory across the area on Tuesday based on the uncertainty on rain and cloud coverage potential. It is possible portions of the area could approach Extreme Heat Warning levels again on Tuesday if less clouds occur south of the front Tuesday.

The ridge pushes back to the west more during the middle and end of the week. The hotter air mass will also push back to the west of the area with temperatures returning closer to normal, in the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s mid and late week. The ridge will push further to the east this weekend with highs in the 80s expected.

The area will remain in a northwest flow pattern Thursday night into Saturday. An upper level disturbance will move through the the region in the northwest flow and will bring shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) to the area Thursday night into Friday and could linger into Saturday. The exact track and how widespread the rain will be is still questions as it is possible it is more of a band of scattered showers and storms. If showers and storms can train over the same locations there would be the potential for locally heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday across portions of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area today into Tuesday morning. South to southwesterly winds will occur through out the TAF period and could be gusty at times late this morning into this afternoon. There is a low chance for an isolate shower or storm across central Missouri later this afternoon into early this evening. This activity will remain well north and east of the TAF sites.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.