textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for east-central Kansas and west-central Missouri counties until 4 AM this morning. Main hazards will be wind gusts up to 60-75 mph, small hail, and a very low-end spin-up tornado risk.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for areas along and west of Hwy 63 as another storm system moves in tonight. Could see 1-3"/hr rain rates and an additional widespread 1" with localized pockets of 3". Flood Watch will end at 7 AM Tuesday.

- Heat Advisory issued for 12pm Tuesday through 7 AM Wednesday for heat indices up to 104 degrees. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-related impacts.

- Confidence increasing for additional rounds of rain during the end of this week (50-70% chance) and flooding will likely be a concern again.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Clouds stuck around a bit longer than anticipated today and kept us cooler in the low 70s this morning. Now that clouds have started to burn off, we are quickly climbing into the upper 70s and will likely reach the 80s in most places across the area. Dewpoints have also recovered well today and are slowly reaching the lower 70s. We have received plenty of rainfall from the overnight convection and ended up getting around 3 to 6 inches over SE KS and SW MO where the heaviest rain fell. We received several flooding reports of flooding across the area which also included river flooding as well. Soils are saturated and rivers are elevated and any additional rainfall will lead to nuisance flooding and ponding on the roadways. This is why the Flood Watch has been extended for counties along and west of Highway 63 until 7 AM Tuesday.

We are expecting a decaying MCS to come through from NE KS and drop a bit more rainfall for us. We could see a widespread additional 1 inch of rain with localized amounts up to 3 inches with 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates. This would mean that an abundance of rain would fall in a short amount of time. The MCS wouldn't necessarily have to stall or move slow for us to see additional flooding impacts. The 1 inch amount may not seem like much, but that additional rain could have serious impacts if certain areas are already super saturated. We are also in a Slight risk (2/5) to Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather overnight with that MCS moving through. The better environment will be over NE KS and KCMO. The main risks for tonight will be the flooding potential and the wind risk of 60-70 mph damaging winds. Hail is a very low tertiary risk, with sizes near a quarter or smaller. No tornado risk tonight. CAMs are not in agreement on MCS behavior. Some models show it dissipating right as it gets into central MO. But other models have the system pushing all the way through south- central MO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A building upper level ridge combined with ample low level moisture, wet soils and good warm air advection will produce a period of persistent elevated heat risk for the middle to end of this week.

As the middle and upper level ridge builds over the region, ensemble guidance produces heat indices in the 90th or higher percentile range for this time of year, according to NAEFS ESATs. The expectation is for very warm temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday through Thursday. Additionally, ensembles show low level moisture near the top end of 30-year climatology for early June. At least a few models bring dewpoints near 80 F for some locations, producing what some affectionately call, air you can wear. These above normal temperatures and unprecedented early June humidity values will lead to Heat Index values ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s (reaching near 110 F in some spots), especially Tuesday.

With this being the first heat of the season, combining the afternoon heat and little in the way of overnight recovery, with warm nighttime temperatures in the 70s providing little relief is what has prompted the Heat Advisory. The Heat Advisory will go into effect Tuesday at noon and end at 7 AM Wednesday. This combination heat and humidity is reflected with a widespread Moderate to Major Risk for heat-related impacts, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

How long the heat wave continue does have some questions as ensemble have a few differing solutions as we head towards the end of the week and this weekend. Some models and trends have a cold front moving through Thursday and Thursday night, bringing our next chance of rain (50-70%). Very high moisture values ahead of the front would promote very high CAPE values, which means a severe risk is not out of the question, which has been indicated with the latest SPC day 4 outlook indicating severe potential for any system that moves through.

Any system would "cool" things off to near normal for the rest of the week. If the upper trough associated surface features can make its way through the Plains later this week, the heat risk would be tempered a bit and produce multiple chances of rain and storms through the weekend. Attention would again turn to additional flooding and severe threats that may evolve. Stay up to date with the forecast!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Current radar imagery shows a complex of thunderstorms moving east-southeast out of Kansas and into western Missouri. This complex is expected to be weakening as it moves east, but some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm still have a chance to impact TAF sites. Greatest confidence is at SGF, with slightly lower confidence at JLN, and even lower at BBG. These our outlined by prevailing groups at SGF, TEMPO at JLN, and PROB30 at BBG.

In the wake of the complex, skies will slowly clear, with winds becoming southwesterly at 10-15 kts, gusting up to 20-25 kts at times.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>081-088>096-101>105. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.