textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog early this morning will reduce visibilities to less than one mile, especially south of Highway 60.

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main risks, with a lower-end risk of a tornado or two, primarily west of I-49.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM Friday. Bands of 2 to 4" with locally higher amounts to 6" within these heavy bands.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday. The primary hazard would be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Synoptic Analysis and Current Conditions:

The upper level disturbance that pushed through the area/northern Arkansas yesterday evening bringing isolated showers/thunderstorms has moved further southeast out of the area. An upper level high currently sits to our southwest over northern Mexico/TX/AZ/NM, with an upper level shortwave over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a surface low resides near Lake Michigan, with an associated cold front dipping south/southwest from the low through northern MO and into the High Plains.

As the morning progresses, the forecast area will be caught in zonal flow and westerly winds aloft, with an upper level disturbance moving through later today (more on this later). All of the shower activity that swept through during the evening has since moved out, leading to a much welcomed quiet night. Observations show temperatures across the area in the mid to upper 60s, with some areas still holding on to the lower 70s as of 2AM.

Foggy this morning:

Around midnight, satellite imagery showed many locations experiencing clear skies, with observations indicating relative humidities in the upper 90% to 100% range over saturated soils. Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicts pockets of low-level stratus and fog developing in localized areas south of Highway 60, with observations showing some locations in this area already dropping below a mile in visibility. HREF guidances suggests mean visibilities of 3-5 miles south of the highway, with a 40-70% chance of visibilities <0.5 miles and a 40-60% chance <0.25 miles. All that to say, it looks like there's a better chance of dense fog early this morning (compared to yesterday morning). Decided against a Dense Fog Advisory for now, as the better chances for visibilities <0.25 miles (DFA criteria) looks more localized in nature, but will continue monitoring observations and trends to see if one is warranted over the next several hours.

Severe Weather and Flooding Chances later today:

The aforementioned upper level disturbance is progged to move through OK/KS and towards the Ozarks during the morning hours, with high-res guidance suggesting an MCS accompanying it and reaching our western counties during the early afternoon. Behind this complex, additional thunderstorms look to develop along the frontal boundary that will begin to push southeast through the area during the afternoon and evening hours, lingering into the overnight.

Overall, this system looks pretty messy, and it remains a question of which round will bring the higher severe threat. Remembering the system that went through last Sunday, we had a morning MCS that pushed through, with afternoon/evening thunderstorms developing behind the complex. The original thought with that system was that the afternoon/evening storms would bring the higher severe potential, when in reality it was the other way around. The system expected today has a similar feel, so it'll be interesting to see how the MCS in the first round influences the atmosphere before the second round occurs.

Severe Hazards and Uncertainty:

The main questions today will be 1)Which round brings the greater severe risk? and 2)What storm mode is the most likely option? With the initial MCS progged to push through during peak heating time, models suggest MUCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg, leading to ample destabilization. Shear looks to be fairly week though, generally around 15-25kts, so the MCS could take on more of a multicellular/cluster mode rather than a true line-segment. If this comes to fruition, then the severe threat would lean more towards the second round. If shear can increase further though, then this MCS could be the main severe risk. The more likely scenario is the previous thought, with the second round being the primary severe risk.

Behind this complex, winds become easterly as the front sags south/southeast, aiding in additional thunderstorms developing over KS/OK where the remnant outflow boundary and cold front meet. Additionally, a 30-40kt LLJ will develop over the KS/OK border, nudging northeast into Missouri during the late evening/overnight hours. With 30-50kt bulk shear and MUCAPE up to 2500 J/kg, isolated supercells mixed with clusters of storms look to be the developing storm modes to our west, pushing towards the area during the late afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Right now, CAMs suggest these supercells becoming more of a cluster of elevated strong to severe storms as they approach our western CWA. This would lead to the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail with any of the stronger storms. If the supercells can hold their structure long enough to reach our area, then tornadoes would also be a probable hazard for areas primarily west of I-49.

There is a scenario in which the early afternoon MCS wipes out the atmosphere, which would lead to less of a severe threat, and the focus shifting primarily to the flooding potential. As previously mentioned, this system is very messy, so there's a lot of conditional scenarios and uncertainties still involved. Current thinking has this scenario as the least likely option however, with the more likely scenario being strong to severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon/evening into the overnight hours with the second round. Figured this scenario should at least be mentioned though.

Flooding Potential:

The aforementioned cold front that's progged to push into the area during the afternoon and evening will become quasi- stationary over the forecast area, bringing likely chances for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms push through. HREF 24-hour LPMM guidance suggests a wide band of 2-4", with localized areas receiving up to 6". Outside of the heavier band of rainfall, widespread amounts of 0.5-1.0" can be expected. Strayed away from the NBM for the QPF as it continued to push the axis of heavy rainfall further north than any other guidance, likely influenced by more northerly outliers. Went ahead and extended the Flood Watch to include the entire CWA, which goes into effect at 1PM this afternoon. It's currently set to expire at 7AM Friday, however we'll need to assess if a future extension is needed, as additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday.

Strong to Severe Storms Friday:

Friday will begin with the lingering strong to severe thunderstorms during the morning before they weaken as they move into a more stable airmass to our east. During the early afternoon however, destabilization looks to occur during peak heating (MUCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg), leading to additional storms developing along the frontal boundary during the late afternoon/evening hours. Shear remains weaker, generally between 20-30kts, so these should take on more of a multicellular mode as they push through, with damaging winds up to 60mph as the primary hazard.

As previously mentioned, we'll need to closely monitor where these storms develop and track, as any additional rainfall would extend the flooding risk into Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A much desired pattern change is likely once we get further into the weekend and into the beginning of next week as the upper level ridge builds over the central CONUS, with the center of the high pressure over the area. As mid-level heights rise heading into the end of June and into the beginning of July, excessive heat will begin to become a major concern. WPC highlights a large portion of the central CONUS (including our forecast area) to experience Hazardous Heat between the June 27-July 1 timeframe (WPC Day 3-7 hazards), with a Moderate risk of Excessive heat during the first week of July (WPC Day 8-14 hazard outlook). Looking at the NBM interquartile spread, there's high likelihood that high temperatures will range in the low 90s for the entirety of the area through much of next week, as there's only a 3-4 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles. Additionally, maximum heat indices are expected to reach the upper 90s to the low 100s, leading to much of the state expected to experience Major Heat Risk (level 3 of 4 in the NWS HeatRisk product), with pockets of Extreme risk (4 of 4) during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. We'll need to continue monitoring how things set up to determine if any future Heat Advisories are needed, but regardless, it'll be hot next week heading into the Fourth of July Holiday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, during extreme temperatures, limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to air conditioning/cooling areas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The first six hours of the TAF period will feature an area of stratus and fog that looks to develop, especially near SGF and BBG. This should send either vis or ceilings into IFR through sunrise. Some uncertainty on exact timing however have used a tempo group for now from 9-12z. There is a low chance that some areas briefly drop below one mile in fog.

The next concern is an area of showers and thunderstorms that could move into the TAF sites as early as mid afternoon Thursday. Uncertainty on timing has led to prob30 groups for now. Confidence is higher in widespread showers and storms Thursday night at SGF and JLN. Heavy rainfall could reduce vis in thunderstorms.

Winds will remain light out of the south, generally 10kts or less. There is the potential for low level wind shear at the sites towards the end of this TAF period and may be included in future updates.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.