textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and well above normal temperatures into early next week. Highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Dry agricultural conditions paired with daily humidity values dropping into the 20-35% range may increase the chance for fire starts. Higher gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible early to middle of next week.

- More widespread rain chances return mid-week next week; however uncertainty still exists regarding timing and system evolution.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Quasi-zonal flow to weak mid-level ridging exists across much of the central CONUS this morning. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows Isaias spinning over southern Alabama and become less organized since it has made landfall.

Warm and Dry Today:

Persistence forecasting will be of use today with little change in the parent airmass from yesterday. That is, temperatures have been nudged upward and dewpoints downward slightly from the NBM initialization, putting max temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees areawide. The biggest forecast challenge today will be capturing the influence (if any) of Isaias as it tracks north through Alabama before steering to the east late tonight. Confidence is high that no precipitation associated with the storm will occur in the forecast area, but the western cloud shield may impinge upon the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri this morning and afternoon. These clouds would act to suppress max temperatures several degrees, resulting in highs around 80 F. Where and if cloud cover is less prominent (most likely west of Highway 65), temperatures will reach closer to 90 degrees.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hot and Dry Early Week:

Once Isaias shifts to the east on Sunday, models show the aforementioned ridge building over the region, and with it, warm air advection pushing 850 mb temperatures into the 18-20 deg C range. Associated surface temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s will challenge daily records Sunday through Tuesday. These temperatures are 10-20 degrees above climatological averages. See the Climate section below for more details.

A lee-low is progged to strengthen east of the Rockies on Sunday in response to a weak shortwave that transits the northern High Plains. The tightened surface pressure gradient will result in breezy winds across far western Missouri and eastern Kansas; hedging closer to the NBM 75th percentile suggests gusts of 25 mph will be common for locations along and west of the Highway 65 corridor, and an occasional gust to 30 mph is also possible. These breezy winds in combination with the unseasonably hot and dry conditions will produce Elevated fire danger on Sunday. It should be noted that the area of strongest winds will not be collocated with the area of lowest RH. More specifically, the lowest RHs will likely be observed across portions of the eastern Ozarks as the southwesterly winds produce drying/downsloping effects on the northeast side of the plateau. Please see the Fire Weather section below for more detailed fuel information.

Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Mid-week:

The quiet pattern looks to become complicated rather quickly as we proceed into late Tuesday and through mid-week thanks to a pair of tropical systems in the Pacific and a digging shortwave trough. Global ensembles depict fairly good agreement in sweeping the two tropical systems into the southwest flow across the western CONUS, resulting in a stream of rich moisture content ahead of the upper-level shortwave. Cluster analysis depicts increasingly divergent solutions as this wave shifts east through the Plains, but they can roughly be categorized into two groups. The majority of ensembles depict convection developing along a cold front as it sags through Missouri late Tuesday before eventually stalling out and lifting back to the northeast as a warm front when the parent upper- level trough pivots through the Midwest sometime late Thursday into Friday. This solution would result in a longer period of rain chances that last through Thursday and possibly into Friday. The alternative is a more progressive shortwave that pushes through the region more quickly, winding rain chances down Thursday morning. A glance at NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables does indeed reveal a signal for abundant moisture content across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas should convection form. Current NBM rain chances increase Tuesday night (30-60%), max out on Wednesday (50-75%), and decrease Thursday afternoon (20-40%). Furthermore, if the strengthening upper-level flow becomes coincident with the deeply moist and unstable airmass, a risk for more organized convection may become apparent. Given the complexity of the forecast, it is still too early to pinpoint rainfall amounts at this time, and these details will be ironed out in future forecast updates.

In short, there are a number of factors that all promote rain of some sort across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas mid- week, but it is just a matter of how, if, and when these features converge that will determine the sensible weather we experience.

Cooler temperatures will move in behind the precipitation chances late week, if only briefly.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. The outer edge of the cloud shield from Isaias will pass over eastern Missouri this morning and afternoon, but no reductions to ceilings and no precipitation is forecast. Winds will prevail out of the south but will vary generally between 150 to 200 degrees.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A prolonged period with substantial rainfall deficits from late Summer and into the Fall has contributed to worsening drought conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The latest Drought Monitor valid Oct 6 showed a continued expansion of the D3 (Extreme Drought) and an overall categorical degradation across the fire weather forecast area. Resultant fuel moisture indices show similar trends. Woody FM readings between 60-70 and Herb FM values of 30-60 suggest these fuels are cured or very dry. Combined, these produce a Growing Season Index (GSI) of 0.1 to 0.3, indicating fuel dormancy. Furthermore, KBDI values greater than 600 (and in some cases greater than 700) also suggest fuels are near or completely cured.

While Red Flag Warning (RFW) conditions are not forecast to be met in the next seven days, we will officially begin our fire weather season messaging, and headlines will be issued should RFW criteria be forecast from this point onward.

CLIMATE

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

October 11: KSGF: 91/1963 KJLN: 91/2020 KVIH: 92/1963 KUNO: 93/1963

October 12: KSGF: 91/2024 KJLN: 93/2024 KVIH: 90/2024 KUNO: 87/1975

October 13: KSGF: 88/2017 KJLN: 88/1952 KVIH: 88/1899 KUNO: 93/1989

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.