textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to Significant Fire Weather conditions Tuesday with gusty southwest winds up to 35-45 mph and humidity in the 20-30% range. There is a medium-low 15-40% chance for localized terrain spots to meet Red Flag criteria (<25% RH; >20 mph winds)

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday through the rest of the week. There is a 35-65% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Current satellite imagery depicts the powerful cyclone of the east coast bringing lots of snow to portions of the northeastern seaboard. As is typical when a storm is brewing off the east coast, the longwave pattern consists of northwesterly flow across our region as the deep trough continues out east with an upstream ridge over the western CONUS. At the apex of the ridge is a 130-150 kt jet over Washington/Idaho/Montana. Directly underneath the inflection point of the trough/ridge is an elongated surface high pressure system stretching from the Hudson Bay down through our area and into east Texas. As the high pressure has been traversing the area, winds have become more light and variable, skies have cleared, and high temperatures today remain on track to be a bit chilly in the 30s.

Temperatures to stay chilly for rest of today and tonight:

The aforementioned jet streak over the NW CONUS is progged to round the ridge and dive into the north-central Plains tonight into Tuesday morning. Dynamics associated with the jet streak will pivot a deepening surface low across the US/Canada border. Meanwhile, the surface high will depart to the southeast. Our region will the be within the tight surface pressure gradient between the deep surface low and departing surface high. This will initiate stronger southwesterly surface winds and associated warm air advection. As such, lows tonight will be a tad warmer, with lows in the teens toward central and south- central Missouri, and in the middle to upper 20s across extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

Elevated to Significant Fire Weather conditions Tuesday:

Winds are expected to get rather breezy Tuesday as the tight pressure gradient moves across the region. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph are likely (>80% from NBM/HREF/REFS members). West of Highway 65, winds will be greatest, with gusts actually coming close to Wind Advisory criteria. NBM probabilities of >45 mph are a bit low in the 15-25% range, but all high resolution members are coming in rather hot, with a 50-90% chance of gusts >45 mph during mid-day Tuesday. Therefore, expect frequent wind gusts between 30-40 mph, with infrequent gusts at or just above 45 mph.

Despite renewed strong southwesterly winds and associated warm air advection, deeper moisture will be limited and lag behind as the surface high pressure moving southeast keeps much of the moisture locked in the Gulf. As a result, temperatures will climb with only a modest increase in moisture. Highs will reach the middle 50s to middle 60s across the area Tuesday. This will lower relative humidity values into the 20-35% range.

RHs are the main uncertainty regarding fire weather concerns. With the jet streak impinging on the area, high cloud cover is expected to overspread the area Tuesday. Depending on the thickness of this cloud cover, high temperatures could struggle to reach 60 F, likely being in the 55-60 F range. This could keep RH values above the 25% threshold, closer to 30-35%. On the other hand, the strong wind gusts could make up for any lowered temperatures, efficiently mixing drier air down to the surface, especially at higher terrain. Therefore, there is potential for Red Flag conditions Tuesday, especially in localized terrain spots such as southerly aspects. The HREF, which includes moist-biased models, only give a 10-20% chance to reach criteria while the dry-biased REFS is more bullish at the 50-70% chance range. The REFS verified better than the HREF for last week's Red Flag Warning, so would anticipate RHs to hover around or below 25%, especially along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau and I-44 corridor. Combining the HREF/REFS gives a better 15-40% chance for localized areas to reach Red Flag criteria. Given the localized nature of the potential Red Flag criteria, a Watch/Warning is not expected at this time, but know that the potential is still there.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Above average temperatures return Tuesday through end of the week:

With the jet stream staying north of the area, continued southerly flow will keep temperatures above normal through the end of the week. There will be some variance in just how warm temperatures are (especially Thursday) as a weak cold front and southerly branch of the jet stream dip through the area. In general, though, expect highs ranging from the middle 50s toward central Missouri to the upper 60s along the southern border Wednesday. Highs then range from the lower 50s to the middle 60s across the same areas Thursday. Lows look to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s Wednesday night, and the 30s Thursday night.

Global ensembles prog the southern branch of the jet stream to phase back with the northern branch Friday, which will raise heights over our area, allowing for temperatures to warm even more into the weekend. Highs look to be in the mid-60s to mid-70s Friday and Saturday with lows in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

35-65% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning:

The weak cold front mentioned in the section above will bring a 35-65% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With temperatures forecast above 32 F, all precipitation should be in the form of rain. The SREF has a <=10% chance for MUCAPE > 50 J/kg with the Euro ensemble putting a 15-30% chance of MUCAPE >100 J/kg. Therefore, there could be a few rumbles of thunder. But for the most part, thermodynamic profiles should be too weak for any widespread thunder mention. The system is forecast to move through rather quickly, and with only limited moisture, precipitation totals should stay at or below quarter of an inch.

Monitoring 30-40% chance for next system, but uncertainty is high:

Lots of uncertainty in the pattern then arises Sunday and onward. Ensemble clusters depict a shallow wave developing somewhere over the CONUS, with the shallow troughing staying toward the northern portions, and shallow ridging staying to the southern portions, leaving our area in a rather flat upper-level pattern. With the troughing to the north, a cold front is progged to sag southward. The flattened wave should stall the front somewhere across the central CONUS. Unfortunately, this means our area could be behind or before the cold front Sunday, leading to a massive 25th-75th NBM percentile spread of 41 to 78 F for Springfield. This spread is visualized by a flat histogram, meaning rather than a bimodal setup (either 41 or 78, nothing in between), any temperature between 41 and 78 degrees have a relatively equal chance of occurring.

Coinciding with the vast uncertainty in temperatures comes uncertainty in a system and its precipitation types. Given there are still ensemble clusters that disagree in the exact placement of the shallow troughing/ridging, there is only a 30-40% chance of precipitation at this time. If precipitation were to occur, the position of the upper-level pattern and surface cold front will be critical to any potential precipitation types. Based on the clusters, a deeper longwave trough across the northeast CONUS would promote snow chances; A flatter upper-level pattern would support an ice chance; A deeper trough coming in from the northwest CONUS would promote better warm air advection and rain chances; Higher heights out west would promote little to no precipitation. At the moment, the best chance is for mostly rain with 41% of models favoring the warmer scenario. We will continue to monitor the forecast in the coming updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

For the 00z TAFS, winds will be the main aviation hazard. While high pressure overhead will bring light and variable winds to the area this evening, it will slide to the southeast of the area tonight into Tuesday while a front approaches from the northwest. In between the front and departing high pressure, we'll have a strong pressure gradient set up along with a strong low level jet. By around 10z, we'll see low level wind shear below 2000 feet from 40 to 60 kts which continues through around 18z. Surface wind gusts during the day Tuesday will be from 25 to 35 kts. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.