textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Residual river flooding will continue following weekend rainfall.

- 30% chance for isolated thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, some of which may be strong to marginally severe with 60 mph winds and 1 inch hail the primary threats.

- Gusty southerly winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday.

- Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night with all modes of severe weather threats. Conditional risk for significant severe threats.

- Thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Residual river flooding will continue following weekend rainfall: - Impacts: River flooding. Some river locations are still seeing rising levels as water moves downstream. - Details: Extended the Areal Flood Warning covering much of the area another 24 hours until early Tuesday morning.

30% chance for isolated thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, some of which may be strong to marginally severe with 60 mph winds and 1 inch hail the primary threats: - Impacts: Lightning and potentially strong to severe storm threats. - Details: Some guidance is showing isolated thunderstorms over the far southwestern CWA Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. If storms develop, they may be strong to marginally severe. - Confidence: Low confidence (20-30%) in thunderstorms developing. If they do form, shear and instability will be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. - Meteorological Analysis: MUCAPE of 1,500-2,000 J/kg and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear are supportive of strong thunderstorms development. However, a lack of forcing mechanism limits confidence in storms developing and becoming mature. SPC does not feature a risk for this area due to this uncertainty, but mentioned that one may be needed if confidence in development increases, which is quite reasonable. Stay tuned for updates.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Gusty southerly winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday: - Impacts: Gusty S-SW wind impacts. - Details: Wind gusts of 30-45 mph are possible, strongest west of Highway 65. - Confidence: 50-90% per NBM probabilities of max wind gusts >= 39 mph, highest along I-49 north of Joplin. - Meteorological Analysis: A tight pressure gradient and strong low level flow, along with decent mixing, will allow for wind gusts of 30-45 mph. While stronger gusts are possible, NBM probabilities for gusts over 45% are only around 30% over a small part of the NW CWA.

Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night with all modes of severe weather threats. Conditional risk for significant severe threats: - Impacts: Severe weather impacts, including potential for higher end wind and tornado threats. Greatest impacts are currently favored in the SPC hatched hazard area along/north of a line from Pittsburg, KS to Lebanon, MO to Rolla, MO. Will be issuing a DSS Packet for this threat. - Details: Thunderstorms are expected within a very unstable and highly sheared environment Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. While details related to storm type and exact hazards are still somewhat unclear, potential will exists for supercells across the northern portions of our forecast area, possibly evolving into a linear complex. Higher end wind and strong tornado threats are in play. - Confidence: Probabilities of thunderstorms occuring are 70-100%. LREF probabilities for very favorable instability and shear is 60-90% Wednesday evening, diminishing with time overnight. Of course, with strong environments there are plenty of factors that can interfere with severe chances, such as precipitation earlier in the day. Stay tuned for updates. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy and a surface low will move across the upper midwest Wednesday into Wednesday night. Strong southwest flow (50+ kt LLJ) will develop, bringing a warm, moist airmass to the entire region. As the system shifts through, a cold front will move into the northern portions of the area, which is currently slated for Wednesday evening before pushing south overnight. Models are in good agreement on these larger scale details, with very little difference (mainly relatively small timing differences) between LREF clusters. LREF probabilities for evening SBCAPE values > 2,000 J/kg are 60-90% with deep layer shear values most likely in the 40-60 kt range (25th-75th percentiles). These wind fields will be quite strong for this time of year (NAEFS 850mb wind return intervals of 1 day every 10 years and bordering on being outside of the climatology altogether). While details related to exact threats and storm mode still somewhat unclear, hodographs are long and strongly curved, which may favor supercells initially over the northern CWA, if ideal conditions do indeed develop. This is where the conditional risk for strong tornadoes exists. Generally expect upscale growth with time, with higher end wind threat possible. Overall expect the severe threat to decrease with southern extent as instability decreases through the night. Morning convection is possible, which could interfere with all of this, so stay tuned for later forecasts.

Thunderstorm chances return next weekend: - Impacts: Low confidence potential for severe storm complex and flooding. - Details: The pattern may favor thunderstorm complexes, which in general brings a risk for severe storms and flooding. - Confidence: Low confidence in the pattern. If the pattern does develop, details related to thunderstorm complex tracks and characteristics would be better resolved 1-2 days prior to the event.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.