textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and well above normal temperatures into early next week. Highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Dry agricultural conditions paired with daily humidity values dropping into the 20-35% range may increase the chance for fire starts, but winds generally below 15 mph should limit fire spread danger. Higher gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible early to middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Mid-level high pressure continues with well above average temperatures still expected over the next several days. Will have to monitor for potential fire danger as the drought continues to worsen and min RH values sit in the 20-30% range today. Southerly winds will be breezy gusting near 20 mph. Southerly winds shift more southeasterly for Saturday and gusts stay near 10 mph. High temperatures for the next couple of days will be in the mid to upper 80s with some clouds moving in on Saturday due to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. Unfortunately, the rain chances for the far eastern Ozarks have shifted further east. There still is a 20-40% chance for rain, but it'll likely fall over the bootheel and stay mostly out of our area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The ridge parked over the Central Plains keeps most of the remnants of Hurricane Isaias further east of our area. This ridge will persist through the early part of next week and it will slowly move east. Meanwhile, Hurricane Simon off the southwest coast of Mexico is forecast to bring us our next rain chances for the middle of next week. Models have Hurricane Simon making landfall on the west side of Mexico and seemingly gets strung out due to our ridge. The remnants of Hurricane Simon are forecast to get caught up in the ridge and move right through southern MO. Rain chances increase Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning with rain chances at 30-60% across the area with the higher chances over central MO. Then, large mid-level trough is expected to move through towards the end of next week and bring more rain and a stronger cold front. Thanks to the frontal passage, those rain chances stick around through Friday when they start to taper off in the late morning.

This strong low pressure system will tighten the pressure gradient as early as Wednesday. This will cause southerly winds to become gusty up to 25 mph from Wednesday through Friday. Throughout the day Friday, the air mass will start to feel different as dewpoints drop by almost 20 degrees and winds turn northerly. Highs for next Friday are forecast to be in the lower 70s. However, this is a long term forecast and these numbers are likely to change. The NBM high temperature spread for Springfield for Friday is 65 to 78 degrees. With this large of a temperature spread of over 10 degrees, there is a lot of uncertainty and we will have to see how this air mass behaves as we get closer. Though, having a high temperature less than 90 degrees is a welcome change and this cold air advection hopefully keeps itself together long enough to bring us a taste of fall by next weekend!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the area tonight through the day on Friday. Southerly winds will occur across the area through the TAF period generally less than 10kt but a few gusts up to around 12kt will be possible at times Friday morning/early afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.