textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 10 AM this morning for southeast Kansas into west-central and southwest Missouri. Visibilities as low as one quarter to one half mile at times.

- Widespread rain chances (60-90%) return late tonight through Monday. Highest amounts expected across portions of southern Missouri, around a half inch to an inch.

- Below average temperatures by mid-week into Thanksgiving. Highs in the 40s to near 50, and lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

- Seasonable temperatures in the 50s next weekend, with increasing confidence in additional rain chances (40-70%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

This morning: Satellite imagery continues to depict an area of low stratus persisting across much of the area early this morning. With low- level moisture in place, stratus is likely to build down. This will support widespread areas of fog developing through sunrise, with reduced visibilities around a quarter to a half mile. Most guidance highlights the extent of the fog from southeast KS into southwest and central MO. For this reason, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 AM this morning. Lows bottom out in the 40s.

Today-Monday: As we progress through the late morning into the afternoon, clouds will gradually dissipate with subtle mid-level height rises associated with some ridging. Highs this afternoon climb into the lower 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Additionally, drier weather is expected through much of today ahead of the next trough and associated system building out of the Baja/Four Corners region.

This upper- level trough is progged to build into the Southern Plains by tonight, with increasing moisture ahead of it. PWATs push towards 0.75 to 1.00 inch as we head into tonight and Monday, setting the stage with ample moisture as PVA overspreads the area. This will support scattered showers increasing in coverage from the southwest late tonight into Monday morning. Rain chances (60-90%) are highest Monday morning through Monday evening, with the greatest coverage south of Interstate 44. With more CAMs coming into focus, there has been some subtle shifts to be noted in the forecast. Particularly, the shift in the axis of heaviest rainfall amounts further south of the area through central AR. As a result, rainfall amounts have trended downward in the area south of Interstate 44. Additionally, the chances for any embedded thunderstorms are very low (10-15%) and suggest more showers than anything. NBM probabilities for greater than a half inch of rain remain highest towards the MO/AR border, around 40-70%. This area could see a few pockets of 0.75 to 1.0 inch. Otherwise, rainfall amounts are expected to taper off further north, closer to a quarter to a half inch. As a result, no flooding is expected with this system. Any rainfall received will remain beneficial to ongoing drought conditions. Breezy southerly winds accompany highs in the 50s to near 60 on Monday as rain moves through the area. There will be some periods of dry time, with rain chances tapering off from west to east overnight Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tuesday-Friday: By Tuesday, the early week system slides east of the region with a cold front progged to translate through the Middle Mississippi Valley. This cold front is tied to a passing trough across the north, ushering in a cooler airmass for mid week. This will support highs in the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday, and overnight lows in the middle to upper 20s. The cooler weather will be accompanied by mostly dry weather through mid to late week. This includes the Thanksgiving Holiday next Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Next Weekend: By next weekend, confidence is a bit lower with regards to temperatures, as NBM interquartile spreads remain 10 degrees or greater. For the time being, the forecast is leaning towards seasonable to slightly below average temperatures. Meanwhile, the upper- level pattern appears to become more active, supporting the return of rain chances next weekend. The latest ensemble guidance suggest rain chances (40-70%) to increase Friday night into Saturday. Additional rain chances look to persist through Sunday. It does not appear we will be cold enough to support wintry precipitation, but we will monitor closely over the next week with remaining uncertainties in the temperature forecast into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

High confidence in fog developing overnight, with reduced visibilities through Sunday morning at the TAF sites. This will result in IFR to LIFR flight conditions. Visibilities as low as a quarter to a half mile through a 4 to 6 hour period, before gradually dissipating through mid-morning. Flight conditions are expected to improve by late morning into the early afternoon as clouds clear. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots into Sunday afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ055-056- 066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.