textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return Tuesday (30-70%) with additional chances through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain.

- The area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Localized flooding will be a concern for locations that see multiple rounds of rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows an upper level trough east of the area with another disturbance over Texas. 12z KSGF sounding continues to show plentiful low level moisture and visible satellite shows a cumulus field over the southeast half of the area. Surface high pressure was moving into the area with light north winds and temps in the 70s.

Dry and Mild Conditions through Memorial Day: No hazardous weather is expected as surface high pressure remains in control with upper level energy remaining south of the area. Winds should gradually turn southeasterly tonight through Memorial Day. Latest REFS guidance keeps fog potential much lower than previous nights however wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fog out near West Plains. Abundant sunshine and slightly warmer 850mb temps will allow for highs to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s on Memorial Day. It should be an ideal day for outdoor activities.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Increasing Rain Chances Tuesday Onward: Latest ensemble guidance is in decent agreement early/mid week but then diverges by the end of week/weekend. There is decent agreement that the energy south of the area will lift north into the area on Tuesday. This is likely due to a stronger low moving into the western US. Latest REFS guidance lifts rain chances through the area during the afternoon and evening hours during peak heating. Mean CAPE is currently less than 1000j/kg and mean 0-6km shear is less than 25kts therefore not seeing a severe threat at this time. Mean PW values however look to climb to around 1.5in which could allow for efficient rainfall rates. Highs on Tuesday will likely be coolest across the south and warmest northwest of Springfield.

Beyond Tuesday, it appears that the western US trough will be slow with spokes of energy occasionally ejecting out into the central US, giving us periodic rain chances. One such wave appears to move into the central US on Wednesday and another on Thursday. However ensembles really diverge towards the end of the week as there is considerable spread on what happens with the western US trough and energy sliding south through the Great Lakes region. This looks like a decent blocking pattern which makes it difficult to pin down exact time periods of rainfall chances. Currently the highest rain chances are Thursday and Friday (70-80%) however expect additional changes as we get a better handle on the upper level pattern. Given the multiple chances for rainfall, the area is in a broad marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This generally equates to localized flooding chances if locations experience repeated rounds of rainfall. Temperatures will also be impacted by these rain chances with Wednesday looking like the warmest day of the week with many areas in the 80s. Temps may drop back into the 70s for late week if the daily rain chances materialize.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For the 00z TAFS, high pressure has moved into the area behind the frontal boundary which brought showers and thunderstorms to the area yesterday afternoon and evening. Drier air associated with the air mass will keep a mostly clear sky over the area during the TAF period. Have added a tempo group for MVFR fog at BBG towards sunrise. Winds should be light and veer around to the east on Monday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.