textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may develop west of Hwy 65 early tomorrow morning, but should not be dense or persistent.

- Today will be the last cool day for a while as temperatures warm to above average late this week and through the weekend.

- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will continue into the middle of February. The precipitation outlook also favors above-average precipitation from the end of this forecast period through mid-month.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Starting Thursday, we head into the great early February warmup! The deep ridge finally moves overhead and switches surface flow to the southwest by Thursday morning. It also gets a bit breezy with that pressure gradient on the east side of the ridge, with gusts up to 30 mph west of Hwy 65 (west of Hwy 65 has all the fun this forecast period). Clouds will still be working their way out of the area, but we'll be clear by evening. There's pretty high confidence in warm temperatures in the 50s and 60s through Sunday, though interquartile NBM ranges start to spread to 8+ degrees after that. Even so, the 25th percentile early next week lands in the mid to high 60s. There will be a slight cooldown Saturday (from the high 50s the previous day to the low 50s, so, very minor) as weak shortwave energy swings a (dry) cold front through. High-end cluster scenarios have us reaching the low to mid 70s for much of next week, so that is not completely off the table.

The high pressure "bubble" and the placement of the Ozarks in the right exit region of the upper jet will keep precipitation chances less than 10% until Monday night, when the Pacific jet shoves north and brings a shortwave trough through. Models diverge on timing and precipitation amounts, which is typical of day 6 prognostication, but we will be watching the potential closely as this is our next real chance for precipitation.

6-14 days out, the high probability for above-average temperatures remains, and potential for above-average precipitation is introduced, so perhaps the next system will pan out for us after all.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Ceilings are lingering between MVFR/VFR this evening and will continue to straddle those flight categories for the rest of the evening. Clouds are expected to lift into VFR levels tonight near 05-06z and slowly dissipate by Thursday morning near 10-13z. Winds are currently out of the northwest near 10 knots. Tonight they become variable and then increase again by Thursday afternoon becoming gusty up to 25 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.