textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures possible again today with breezy winds near 35-40 mph this afternoon/evening.

- Elevated to significant fire weather concerns today as a cold front moves through later this afternoon.

- Record high temperatures possible again Wednesday and Thursday.

- Precipitation chances (35-60%) return Thursday night into Friday, however uncertainties still exist.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Current conditions and Synoptic Analysis:

An upper level high pressure system is currently situated over the desert southwest, with an associated surface high near the Four Corners Region. As the early afternoon progresses, models showcase an upper level weak shortwave trough continuing to push through the region, with an associated surface cold front sweeping through the forecast area this afternoon/evening.

So far this morning, temperatures have already been exceeding the NBM guidance, with noon temps already reaching the low to mid 80s (which was several degrees higher than the guidance in some locations). Decided to bump up temperatures to reflect this trend in observations, leading to afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s in most locations, and potentially reaching the low 90s closer to south- central MO as that area remains ahead of the cold front through the afternoon hours. This is also the area where NBM probabilities show 85-90% chances of reaching 90 degrees.

Gusty Winds Today:

Observations throughout the morning showed areas along/west of Highway 65 already reaching 30mph wind gusts, which was expected. As the early afternoon progresses, the cold front will begin to sweep through the northwest CWA pushing southeast, shifting winds to a more NW direction behind the front, and increasing wind gusts. Latest NBM guidance still has the 90th percentile just below any Wind Advisory criteria (criteria is gusts of 45mph). Additionally, Bufkit forecast soundings show momentum transfer aloft remaining below 40kts (45mph), with the closest model (RAP) having 39kt aloft for a short time period around 9pm this evening. Therefore, we continued to hold off on any issuance, but will continue to keep an eye on trends in observations. If one was warranted, it would be a shorter- fused advisory likely lasting less than 6 hours this evening between 6pm- 12am where the stronger gusts are expected. Regardless, it's going to be a breezy late afternoon/evening, with the majority of those forecast soundings still showing 32-35kt (37-40mph) winds aloft having decent chances of mixing down to the surface.

Elevated to Significant Fire Danger Today:

In addition to the gusty winds, a dry airmass remains in place ahead of the cold front, with minimum relative humidity values expected to dip into the 25-35% range this afternoon. We continue to monitor wind/humidity observations for any uptick in trends, however confidence in any Red Flag Warning issuance remains low, as the lowest RHs and strongest winds don't match up temporally or spatially. By 1-3PM RHs will begin to deteriorate, especially for areas southeast of I-44 where they'll likely see RHs in the 25-30% range. However at this time in the afternoon, the stronger winds (25- 35mph) remain northwest of I-44 as the cold front begins to push through the CWA. Fast forward to the evening when gusts climb into the 35-40mph range, RHs have already recovered into the 40-50% range. HREF joint probabilities of RH <=25% and winds >=20mph (RFW criteria) remain less than 30% for a short period this afternoon. That being said, there will be a very narrow window where we could potentially reach criteria and Significant Fire Danger as the cold front pushes through, generally west of Highway 65. If we notice wind/RH observations begin to exceed expectations and hit criteria, a short-fused Red Flag Warning would be on the table. For now, we'll just continue to message Elevated to Significant fire danger today, so be mindful to avoid any activities that may cause open flames or sparks.

Temperatures behind the Front:

This cold front will bring a temporary end to the well-above normal temperatures as more seasonable temperatures filter in. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be 20-25 degrees cooler than last night, dipping down into the upper 30s to low 40s. Heading into the start of the work week, Monday's afternoon highs will top out in the mid 50s (closer to central MO) to mid 60s (generally increasing south of Hwy 60).

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

As we progress through the beginning of the week, an upper level ridge will begin to build over the western CONUS, with surface high pressure over the region. Models show several disturbances pushing through our area bringing upper level energy, however with the dry airmass in place, no precipitation is expected through midweek.

As the upper level ridge continues to build over the region, midlevel heights will begin to rise, leading to a gradual climb in afternoon temperatures. Tuesday's highs look to remain in the mid to upper 60s (reaching the low 70s for far southwest MO), however both Wednesday and Thursday will bring near-record and well-above normal temperatures to the area once again (see Climate section below for current records). The NBM interquartile spread shows only a 4-6 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, leading to fairly good confidence in highs reaching the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and the upper 80s to potentially 90 degrees on Thursday. For reference, the normal high ranges from 60- 63 degrees for this time of year.

Next Precipitation Chances:

Another cold front is progged to push through the area Thursday night into Friday, returning shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Looking at the individual ensemble member low locations, there's a lot of variance in the timing and track of this system, leading to great uncertainty in any specifics at this time. As of now, precipitation looks to begin increasing Thursday evening (30- 50% pops), with the better chances (35-60%) occurring overnight into Friday morning. As far as any amounts are concerned, the NBM 24-hr probability of QPF > 0.25" is less than 40%, with the probability of QPF > 0.50" less than 20%. We'll continue monitoring this system as we get closer to this time frame to get a better idea of what to expect.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the forecast period. Current southwesterly surface winds are gusting between 25-30kts primarily at KSGF and KJLN. By this afternoon, a cold front will sweep through the area, increasing gusts up to 30-35kts and shifting winds out of the northwest behind the front. These gusty winds are expected to continue through the end of the period, with gusts up to 20-25kts persisting through Monday morning and winds becoming northeasterly.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KSGF: 88/1907 KJLN: 90/1995 KVIH: 78/1904 KUNO: 85/1997

March 25: KSGF: 83/1910 KJLN: 88/1910 KVIH: 80/1959 KUNO: 79/2012

March 26: KSGF: 82/2020 KJLN: 86/1910 KVIH: 83/2020 KUNO: 86/2020

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.