textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There may be some breaks in rain for the rest of today, but widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this afternoon and continue through Friday.

- Expect additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches, with some localized higher amounts. Flash flooding may occur with embedded areas of heavier rainfall, but widespread flooding is not anticipated.

- Increasing chances, 60-80%, for rain to return early next week. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate due to some model uncertainty with this next system.

- A potential period of colder than average temperatures are becoming more likely for Thanksgiving Day into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A warm front remained across the Ozarks with portions of central and west central Missouri just on or north of the front with light northerly winds noted this morning along with Dense Fog where rain was not falling. South of the front where moisture was running over the boundary across southern Missouri, Showers and isolated storms were moving across the region. This fetch of moisture can be traced all the way to the Pacific off the Coast of Old Mexico south of the Baja Peninsula. Additionally, low level flow off the Gulf of America can also be seen moving towards the region. These atmospheric rivers of moisture are forecast to continue to feed the system moving across the Plains allowing for continued shower and storm potential for the region through tonight and likely into Friday night.

As a result, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight. Lightning will be possible with all storms though decreasing during lighter rainfall overnight through Friday. Winds may shift to briefly northerly behind any outflow boundaries that pass through from thunderstorms in nearby areas. Otherwise, winds will generally be light and southeasterly at 6 mph or less during this period, switching to southwesterly at 5-10 mph Friday morning. A cold front will slowly move through the area on Friday, turning winds more northerly behind the front.

Ample moisture as noted above will keep the area socked in with low stratus despite any periods of little to no rainfall. This will limit the amount of solar radiation that can make it to the surface and keep temperatures from climbing much out of the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Similarly, this will also keep overnight temperatures in the 50s. With the limited recovery chances for any embedded storms in the stratus should be limited, though not zero. If a cell or two can take full advantage of what instability and lift there is, most likely along the residual warm frontal boundary, they may be capable of producing small localized hail.

Some locations, especially those that see little rain may see additional fog overnight tonight, will need to monitor areas of central Missouri for continued fog or fog development.

In looking at the models, some of the members bring some drier air into the region too quickly considering the significant moisture streaming into the region. Limiting the impacts on the forecast and leaning slightly more on some of the CAMS, rain is expected to linger across most of the Ozarks into Friday evening.

Overall, rainfall amounts remain consistent with previous forecasts, with all of southwest Missouri and far southeast Kansas expected to see and additional 0.75in to 1.5 inches of rain which will send final storm totals around 2-4 inches. The additional rainfall lead to some localized flooding, especially considering the amount of leaves and detritus falling recently which may clog drains. This would be more of a concern in urban areas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Surface low pressure is finally expected to move across and through the Ozarks by Friday evening, with a cold front sliding behind it along with slow clearing. This may lead to areas of Dense Fog Friday night with wet ground and cold air advection.

The weather pattern for the weekend behind this system looks more seasonable and dry. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected for Saturday and into the low to middle 60s on Sunday, with overnight lows in the 40s through the weekend.

Seasonable highs in the upper 50s will continue into early next week before cold air begins to move into the central Plains and the Ozarks towards the Thanksgiving Day Holiday and next weekend. The next round of rain will come Sunday night through Monday night as another surface low and associated upper level trough take a similar track as our current system.

In looking at some of the longer range guidance like the CFSv2 and EFI shift of tails, chances for a period of colder than average temperatures look increasingly likely. The CFSv2 has a bullseye of below average temperatures cantered over Missouri with the EFI indicating good potential for temperatures in the 10th percentile. Current forecast temperatures are in the 40s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. These temperatures may not be cold enough if the longer range guidance is correct though. Will see how things progress this week, though the CPC and WPC are both forecasting the potential for colder than normal temperatures in the Nov 27th to Dec 3rd period. If this is correct we may feel more like winter as we head into the climatological December to February winter period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A warm front that pushed into the region, stalled across central Missouri. Showers and isolated storms will continue to move over the region through tonight and into Friday. Low IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through the forecast with generally light surface winds.

Where storms move over a terminal, visibilities and ceilings will be impacted.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ073- 097. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ055>057-066>069-077-078.