textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold tonight into Saturday morning. Lows in the single digits and wind chills around -5 to -15 degrees. A Cold Advisory is in effect for portions of southeast KS into southern MO. Well below normal temperatures persist through the weekend.

- Isolated flurries through tonight, and again Saturday night. Little to no accumulations expected, with a dusting at most.

- Warming trend early next week with temperatures becoming near normal. Highs either in the middle 40s, OR the middle 50s.

- 15-30% chance of precipitation Tuesday. Uncertainty still remains, but forecast trends have been toward mostly rain with greater coverage east of our area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The leading edge of yet another Arctic airmass can be easily spotted in mid-level water vapor imagery. The leading edge is currently over north Missouri/Kansas, with the Arctic air locked within a surface high pressure north of it within Iowa/Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. This air mass coincides with a straight west-east shortwave trough axis quickly diving through the region. West of this shortwave trough, an amplified ridge over the west CONUS is producing meridional north-south flow over the Rockies.

Flurries continue through tonight:

The compact nature of the shortwave, along with a small jet at the base of the trough is leading synoptic scale ascent both from left exit region jet dynamics and positive vorticity advection. Despite the strong forcing, the west-east nature of the shortwave means no northward moisture advection. Thus, only flurries with some pockets of light snow have been observed via radar and surface observations. These flurries are expected to continue and move southward through tonight along with the shortwave.

Lows in the single digits with wind chills between -5 and -15:

After the wave moves through, the Arctic air will surge in with winds increasing to 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph tonight. This will bring lows down into the single digits with wind chills between -5 to -15 degrees. HREF guidance does bring some low-level clouds, which may keep areas locally warmer. So, a Cold Weather Advisory is in place across our southern Missouri and southeast Kansas counties where winds are expected to be greatest leading to higher confidence in -5 to -15 F wind chills. Highs will then struggle to reach the lower 20s during the day Saturday.

Flurries to "more than just flurries" possible Saturday night:

Another compact shortwave is then progged to move through the region Saturday night. Medium range models initiate additional strong PVA and mid-level frontogenesis with this wave, which has resulted in a band of precipitation to manifest in the models. For now, there isn't really a footprint in southwest Missouri. This is largely due to a very dry air mass just above the surface according to HREF/REFS forecast soundings. However, much like today, with the strong forcing, would not be surprised to see a quick band of flurries to light snow moving from west to east Saturday night. At this point, impacts are should only be a dusting of snow, but there is a very low confidence scenario in briefly heavier snow within the band that drops a quick light accumulation in some areas.

Lows then drop to the lower single digits in the eastern Ozarks, to the lower teens along the MoKs border Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Warming trend into early next week with temperatures near normal:

Following the second compact shortwave, we finally start to see some cold relief as global ensembles shift the upper-level longwave pattern eastward, which raises heights in our area beneath shortwave ridging. This will re-initate southerly flow and subsequent warm air advection. High temperatures will rise into the 30s Sunday with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s Sunday night.

The temperature forecast then gets a bit nuanced Monday and Tuesday. While the general trend will bring us near normal (normal highs are in the middle 40s with normal lows in the middle 20s), the current deterministic forecast may be unrepresentative of what actually occurs. This is due to a bi- modal distribution in the NBM split by the ENS and GEFS ensembles. Monday, most ENS members have us ranging from 35-45 F while most GEFS members have us ranging from 50-60 F. This means the mean temperature is somewhere between 45 and 50. However, either scenario does not fit that range. Therefore, at this time, there is generally equal weighting in seeing temperatures in the lower 40s Monday and Tuesday as there is seeing temperatures in the 50s.

The ENS has a known cool bias and shows a flatter ridge leading to the cooler scenario, while the GEFS has a known warm bias and shows a more amplified ridge leading to the warmer scenario. We'll have to see how the pattern plays out to see which becomes favored, but at the moment, the bias-weighted deterministic NBM seems to like the GEFS scenario with highs Monday in the upper 40s to middle 50s and in the 40s to lower 50s Tuesday. No matter the scenario, though, the near normal temperatures will bring cold relief and begin appreciably melting the snowpack.

15-30% chance of precipitation Tuesday. Trending toward rain:

The shortwave ridging won't last long, though, as another shortwave trough drops in from the north bringing our next potential system. LREF clusters are still a bit whiffy-waffly with this system, largely due to the differences in the pattern and surface temperature layout. However, as we get closer to the event, models have trended a bit further east and warmer leading to only 15-30% chances of rain (maybe a rain-snow mix in central Missouri) Tuesday. There still room for change given the cluster differences and expected tight temperature gradient with the freezing line somewhere in the region. For now, though, minimally impactful rain showers are forecast.

Following the shortwave, temperatures will briefly drop again into the 30s Wednesday with lows around 20 F. As was seen this weekend, the upstream branch of the shortwave may bring enough forcing to squeeze out some more flurries/light snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, but we are too far out to determine that for sure.

Near normal temperatures expected again following the "system":

The LREF grand ensemble then points to rising heights and a pronounced ridge axis building into the region for the late week. This will bring another warming trend to near normal. NBM spreads are a bit large, but hover around normal with the 25th percentile in the lower 40s and the 75th percentile in the upper 50s. Lows during this timeframe look to be in the 20s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Current BKN mid-level clouds will continue through the first hours of the TAF period. After 22Z, the eastern edge of an Arctic high pressure system will push south into the region this TAF period. This will increase northerly winds to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times. It will also bring in a low cloud deck, though uncertainty in the coverage and exact level is currently medium-low. Current guidance gives a 40-60% chance of MVFR, and a slightly lower 30-45% chance for IFR cigs. Given uncertainty in coverage, have opted to split the difference at 2 kft MVFR since if IFR clouds are SCT in coverage, impactfulness will be limited.

The second question is how long clouds linger, with guidance suggesting lingering clouds at SGF through at least 14Z. Highest confidence forecast is outlined in the TAF, but SCT coverage is given for timeframes after 08-12Z to account for the potential of lingering clouds.

Some flurries may accompany the cloud coverage (<15% chance), but impacts to TAF sites will be negligible.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Saturday for MOZ077-082-083-088>098-101>106.