textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today and Sunday. The greatest coverage will be on Sunday across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. - Hot and humid conditions build across the area Sunday through Tuesday. Maximum afternoon heat index values will approach 100-108 degrees.

- Seasonable temperatures ahead mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Today-Tonight: A broad ridge of high pressure remains over the Gulf Coast, with increasing mid-level heights into the region. This will continue to support warm and humid conditions across the area. Highs today reach into the upper 80s to around 90, with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100. Meanwhile, radar depicts a few isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Ozark Plateau early this afternoon. This is a result of some weak forcing in the vicinity of an unstable environment. While a weak cap should inhibit widespread coverage, we will continue to advertise 15-25% PoPs through the early evening. Any locations that do see this activity can expect brief heavy downpours and perhaps some lightning. Rain chances diminish through evening into tonight. There is still a few CAMs that capture a few isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that stalls into northern MO tonight. Confidence remains low on this potential, with less than 10% PoPs overnight. Lows fall into the lower to middle 70s overnight.

Sunday: As we progress into Sunday morning, the cold front to the north will nudge into portions of central MO and the eastern Ozarks. This area will be the focus for additional scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) on Sunday afternoon and evening. The latest trends suggest a bit better coverage than previous days, though the environment remains unfavorable for any strong to severe thunderstorms. Localized heavy rainfall and lightning remain the primary hazards through Sunday. Additionally, temperatures reach back into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values topping out around 100 to 105.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Monday-Tuesday: The ridge of high pressure becomes stronger into early next week, supporting some of the hottest temperatures of the season for our area. Highs soar into the middle to upper 90s, with the hottest day coming on Tuesday afternoon. With dewpoints in the middle 70s, heat index values will push into the 100-108 range. This may support the need for a Heat Advisory in subsequent forecast updates. Check back for updates over the next 24 to 36 hours. The hot and humid conditions persist through Tuesday before a pattern change unfolds into mid-week.

Wednesday-Friday: Ensemble guidance continues to capture a trough and upper-level low building into the northeast CONUS mid-week. This will allow a cold front to slide through the region into Wednesday. A drier and cooler air mass overspreads the region, with more seasonable temperatures and less humidity. Highs will vary from west to east across the area, with upper 80s/lower 90s (west) to middle 80s (east). There is still some lingering uncertainty with regards to the placement of the trough to the east and the ridge to the west. This can be gleaned from the NBM 8-12 degree interquartile spread on high temperatures mid to late week. The next rain chances (10-30%) come on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Showers have generally cleared the area only leaving residual anvil high clouds over the TAF sites. Through the night, skies will generally clear with winds becoming light at 3-5 kts out of the south. There is a very low signal (<20% chance) for some overnight showers and potentially a thunderstorm, but overall confidence in the location impacting TAF sites was too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

After 15Z, a 3-4 kft cu field will develop, and isolated to scattered showers will resume for the 18-00Z period as seen the past few days (30% chance for TAF site impacts). Winds will generally stay light at 3-8 kts out of the west.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.