textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures today with some records approached (see Climate section).

- Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 8 PM Today as a warm and very dry air mass combines with gusty winds to create conditions capable of quickly spreading fires. - Precipitation chance trends are decreasing for Friday night into Saturday (15-25% chances, down from 30-50%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A look a satellite and surface observations this morning showed Generally light, 5 to 10 mph, southerly winds with a warm front across northern Missouri in advance of a surface low moving across western Kansas. A rather dry airmass moved into the region yesterday has see little in the way of modification from the southerly winds. Morning relative humidities have see little in the way of recovery with RH values in the 30 and 40 percents. There was some middle and high clouds that were moving over the region as well which was helping to keep overnight temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

As the surface low approaches and moves north of the Ozarks through today, winds will increase and become gusty with afternoon gust from 30 to 40mph expected. This will set the stage for significant to extreme fire weather potential today. More detailed information can be found in the Fire Weather section below. Bottom line is, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for today from Noon through 8 pm.

Continued southerly to southwesterly winds will keep warm air advection going through the day with highs this afternoon climbing into the upper 60s middle 70s.

Models have continued to show a limited potential for a brief shower across the far eastern Ozarks through this morning, thanks to some prefrontal forcing. This is despite a pretty dry airmass in place. If a shower were to occur, 10-20% chance, It would be most likely along and east of Highway 5 in the eastern Ozarks and any amounts wouldn't be much more than sprinkles to a few hundredths.

The cold front associated with the surface low will then traverse the Ozarks this evening, allowing a cooler and dry airmass to move in to the area. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight as a result and will keep temperatures to more seasonable levels in the upper 40s to middle 50s on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

By Friday evening and into Saturday morning, a shallow upper levee trough will move across the center of the country. This will be associated with a strong 150kt plus upper level jet which will provide some forcing over the Ozarks. This may be enough to squeeze out some Pacific moisture in the form of a mix or rain and/or snow. Chances have trended downward with this however over the past few runs with current 15-25% chances. If this does occur, again amounts would be light and little to no snow accumulations would occur.

Additional rounds of seasonable air will move through the area through the weekend as upper level flow become northwesterly, thanks to a building ridge over the Rockies. Thanks to the northwesterly flow, cool air will keep afternoon highs in the 40s, much more like middle to late February than to day. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s through the weekend and the Teens to start the week on Monday morning.

Monday looks like it will be the coolest day of the week next week as a warming trend occurs through next week as an upper level wave flattens the western ridge. This warming trend will not be as robust as this week however, with highs in the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The potential for gusty surface winds and low level wind shear will be the main concerns with the forecast with generally VFR conditions otherwise. Expectations through the day are for morning southerly winds from 5 to 10kts to increase and become gusty through the morning hours. Sustained winds from 10 to 15kts and gusts from 20-30kts will occur by the afternoon and become westerly. Additionally, a period through 15z to 17z will see low level wind shear impact the region as a low level jet moves through the Ozarks. Windy conditions will continue into tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Moisture recovery overnight has been rather limited with overnight RH values only climbing into the 30s to 40s across the Ozarks. This will set the stage for an exceptionally dry day across the area today. An area of low pressure will move across northern Missouri through the day with a dry front pushing through the region reinforcing the the dry air in place and quickly drying out the area again to 10-20%. The best potential for the lowest RH's will be for areas west of Highway 65 (10-40% chance). With the frontal passages southwesterly winds will increase through this morning into this afternoon increasing from 5 to 10mph to 15-25 mph sustained and gusts up to 25-40 mph across the region.

This combination of dry weather, high winds and warm afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to middle 70s will produce the right ingredients for for Red Flag conditions for much of the area. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for noon to 8 PM today. The main uncertainty is that some areas may not see sustained winds above 20 mph, however, guidance suggests frequent gusts around or in excess of 35 mph for much of the area which would compensate for lower sustained winds.

The area of greatest confidence reaching and exceeding Red Flag Criteria is along and west of Highway 65 where an Elevated to Critical SPC Fire Outlook is in place. This is the result of the expected confidence in sustained winds at 20-25 mph and minimum RH values ranging from 10-20%.

CLIMATE

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KJLN: 78/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.