textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills will drop into the single digits above zero again tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures quickly rebound to near to slightly above average during the middle of the week. Some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Tuesday.

- Upcoming late week into the weekend precipitation chances (30-60%), however a LOT of uncertainty still remains with thermal profiles, moisture, and timing of upper energy.

- Higher confidence is colder temperatures this weekend as temperatures drop well below normal. Wind chills below zero will be possible each morning this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH Wednesday /

Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The mid level clouds will continue to clear from north to south across the rest of the area by early this evening. An area of Surface high pressure is mvoing into the area and will be over the area by this evening. The high will then push off to the east tonight into Tuesday. A colder air mass will remain over the area through tonight. Temperatures are currently only in the lower to middle 20s this afternoon and will only warm a few more degrees through the rest of the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will drop into the teens tonight into Tuesday morning. As the surface highs start to move off to the east tonight southerly winds will start to develop from west to east late tonight into Tuesday morning. Wind chills are expected to drop into the single digits again tonight into Tuesday morning.

As the area of surface high pressure moves off to the east on Tuesday southerly winds will return along with warm air advection. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 40s across much of the area with some upper 40 readings across far southern Missouri. A dry air mass will be in place across the area Tuesday morning. Low level moisture will start to develop behind the departing high on Tuesday, but will be slow to make it north into our area by Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, afternoon humidity values will likely drop into the 20 to 35% range. Winds will gradually increase from west to east during the day with gusts up to around 15 to 25mph by the afternoon hours. The increasing southerly winds and dry conditions will lead to the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

The low level moisture will increase across the area during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday, especially along and south of I-44. A drier air mass will remain in place in the mid levels of the atmosphere and cloud ice may remain limited over the area. An upper level trough will move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the increasing low level moisture, and drier air in the mid levels precipitation amounts will remain light and may be more drizzle than rain, again mainly along and south of I-44 will the better low level moisture will occur. Temperatures will likely drop into the low to middle 30s Tuesday night, but warm air advection will be occurring with the lift so drizzle/light rain will be the main precipitation type. Any locations that are around the freezing mark should quickly warm above freezing once any drizzle begins Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Behind the frontal passage on Wednesday near normal temperatures will occur Wednesday night and Thursday with lows in the low/mid 20s and highs in the low/mid 40s.

An upper level low will dig south off the west coast late week as another upper level trough moves south into the northern Plains late week into the weekend. The ensemble model members continue to differ on the exact track and timing of the system, but they continue to trend further south with the colder air mass. With the upper low trough to the north the cold front that moves south through the area will be deeper therefore would prevent any warm nose developing over the area this far north. Therefore, the most likely preciptiation type for our area would be snow if precipitation occurs, as with how deep cold air mass advecting in is. With the further south colder trend it will likely prevent a warm nose backing it this far north.

Models continue to differ on the track of the upper level low off the west coast late week, some model members continue to dig it southeast with other moving it east across the southwestern U.S. and phasing with the northern trough. The front will likely move through the area dry early Friday with precipitation developing behind the front in the cold air Friday afternoon into Saturday. The question is the track of the southern low and therefore how far south the cold front makes into the Gulf states and how far north precipitation develops behind the front. The models that are further to the south, keep most if not all of the preciptiation to the south of the area with southern MO having the better potential with amounts decreasing to the north. The further northern tracks would bring the potential for snow further north to much of the area. Even with the further northern track, this may be a banded snow setup which could be more narrow than what the global ensemble model members are indicating therefore some mesoscale features that will be better know with time to including snowfall amounts. The models overall continue to trend south with the system each model run but there is still a large range in solutions. If the cold front can move further south this will limit the snow further north, so a more northerly track would have to occur.

There is higher confidence in much colder conditions this weekend as cold air mass advects into the region with the late week/weekend system. The NBM spreads continue to show the potential for lows in the single digits this weekend with highs in the teens on Saturday and 20s on Sunday. If any accumulating snow can occur across the area, there will be the potential for colder temperatures, possibly lows below zero as this will be a cold air mass.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

An upper level trough is moving through the region this morning. Mid level clouds are currently over the region associated with the trough and will clear from north to south this afternoon into early this evening as the trough moves off to the east.

Northwesterly winds are occurring across the area and will continue to gradually weaken this afternoon as surface high pressure moves towards the area. The area of surface high pressure will move over the region this evening with light winds occurring. The high will start to move off to the east late tonight into Tuesday morning with south to southwesterly winds returning to the area from west to east.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.