textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today (highest chances southeast of I-44). Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

- Patchy fog overnight, especially southeast of I-44. 40-60% chance for visibilities to drop below 1 mile.

- Additional rain chances through the end of the week and weekend. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis highlights shortwave energy across Arkansas and southeast Missouri. A larger upper level trough remains across the western US with a large high east of the Atlantic coast. Low level moisture continues to increase over the area. While the 12z KSGF sounding measured a PW of 0.9in, PW values are closer to 1.5in south of the area and were moving in from the south. This was due to surface low pressure southeast of the area drawing that moisture northwestward. An area of light to moderate rain continues across locations southeast of the I-44 corridor. Current instability remains low with very little thunder. Temps in the clouds/rain were held back into the 60s with low to middle 70s west of Springfield in the sunshine.

Rain Chances Today: As moisture and instability increases and the energy continues to move north through the area, scattered showers will continue to develop and spread northwest through the area. Highest chances will be along and south of the I-44 corridor. Locations that have destabilized may see a few storms develop this afternoon, this would generally be along the I-44 corridor region. As the lift moves north of the area and instability decreases this evening, rain chances should decrease after dark. Rainfall amounts this afternoon generally look to remain in the 0.1in to 0.30in range however any locations that see thunderstorms could see localized amounts (5-10miles wide) of 1-3 inches given slow storm motions. This is seen in the LPMM data from the HREF. There remains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall which could cause localized flooding.

Fog Potential Tonight: There has been an increasing trend in the potential for fog overnight into sunrise Wednesday, mainly southeast of Springfield. Locations southeast of Springfield will likely have wet grounds from rainfall today. This combined with light winds and some attempt for clearing skies overnight will allow for fog development. The amount of clearing is in question. That being said, latest HREF and REFS shows a 40-60% chance of visibilities dropping below one mile. We will need to monitor locations east of Highway 65 for this fog trend.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Rain Chances Wednesday: As the upper low across the western US moves east, another piece of energy will move from Texas into Kansas and Oklahoma. Latest HREF guidance depicts a corridor of showers and thunderstorms mainly developing in the afternoon and evening to the southwest of Springfield. HREF PW values around 1.5in should allow for efficient rainfall production with slow moving showers and storms. Therefore while most areas should be in the 0.1in to 0.30in range, very localized amounts closer to 1-2 inches could occur in localized areas southwest of Springfield as depicted by the HREF LPMM data. Weak shear should keep storms from becoming severe. Locations from Springfield and points north and east will see much less rainfall chances and therefore warmer temps with some areas reaching the lower 80s.

Rain Chances Thursday through the weekend: Ensemble data suggests that the overall blocking pattern will persist. Shortwave energy looks to get trapped in the flow over Kansas and Oklahoma and when combined with a stationary front, additional chances for showers and storms will continue. This type of pattern is one that makes it hard to nail down the times of the highest rainfall chances, especially since global output might have too large of a foot print. The activity end up remaining more scattered. However, the high moisture should allow for localized heavy rainfall and there continue to be marginal risks for excessive rainfall. Rain chances are above 60% Thursday and Friday for most of the area with a slight decrease over the weekend however future updates are likely. It does appear that the blocking pattern changes towards the end of the weekend with decreasing rain chances. Temps will largely be driven by precip chances with highs in the 70s common most days. Looking at total rainfall amounts, the latest NBM signals a footprint south of I-44 with 30-60% chances of 1inch or greater Thursday- Saturday. Stay up on the forecast for updates.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers have dissipated, with overcast skies expected to persist across much of the area. Lower IFR to MVFR ceilings overspread the area overnight, impacting KSGF and KBBG into Wednesday morning. Ceilings as low as 500 to 1500 feet are likely, with a period of ceilings dropping to LIFR at 300 feet at KBBG. This will be accompanied by reduced visibilities as fog builds into portions of the area. Reduced visibilities as low as a quarter to a half mile at KBBG, with lower confidence on the extent of fog to impact KSGF. Any fog that impacts the TAF sites will dissipate into mid- morning on Wednesday, with widespread cloud cover persisting. Light east- southeast winds through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.