textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cool with highs in the upper 60s to 70s today along with gusty winds and cloudy skies. Dreary conditions will continue, with drizzle and light rain persisting through this evening.

- Gradual warming trend with a return to normal temperatures early next week.

- Rain chances return later next week. Extreme heat possible next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Satellite imagery clearly depicts an occluded low centered over western Illinois, which has been the focus for wrap-around drizzle and stratus as shown on radar and observations this morning. This has led to a dreary Saturday, and is expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours before pushing out of the area tonight.

Looking at the synoptic analysis, that upper level shortwave energy continues over our northeast, pivoting southeast away from the region through the remainder of this weekend. To our west, an upper level high pressure system is set up over the desert southwest, with an associated upper ridge over the western CONUS. This has brought northwesterly flow aloft, which has ushered in a much cooler airmass to the region.

Observations as of 1PM show temperatures struggling to climb as cloud cover prevents sufficient daytime heating, with temps so far in the mid 60s to low 70s. As the afternoon progresses, temps should climb to the upper 60s/low 70s for areas east of I-49, and potentially into the upper 70s west of I-49. This may be wishful thinking, as those values are already lowered from the NBM deterministic by several degrees. It'll really come down to the cloud cover and if we can get some breaks in the stratus to heat things up a bit. To put that into perspective, some places may have already reached their high temperature for today.

Otherwise, it'll be a breezy day, with winds gusting up to 30mph at times. The precipitation should fully move out of our forecast area by midnight tonight as the upper level energy slides further away, with clouds beginning to clear from west to east. Overnight lows are expected to range in the low to mid 60s for the entire area.

Sunday will lead to drier and warmer conditions compared to today as the flow aloft becomes more northerly and the cloud cover clears out. Highs should be able to climb into the upper 70s for portions of the Eastern Ozark valleys, and into the 80s elsewhere (including the mid to upper 80s west of I-49).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The aforementioned upper level ridge begins to build over the region on Monday allowing mid-level heights to begin to rise. This will lead to sunny conditions and daytime heating bringing highs in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and into the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday (both days showing the warmer end of that range west of Highway 65).

An upper level low over Canada will push a shortwave trough through the Northern Plains during the beginning of the week. Guidance suggests the associated upper level energy sliding into our forecast area by Wednesday night, bringing additional chances (20-40%) for showers and storms, primarily north of Highway 60. As this is still several days out, we'll have to just keep an eye on how models handle this system to see what it'll be capable of.

Looking ahead towards the 8-14 Day timeframe, CPC is showcasing a Moderate Risk for extreme heat as we head towards the middle of the month, so make sure to enjoy this brief reprieve from the heat before temperatures start climbing back above normal!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue over the next few hours until ~21Z-23Z as drizzle, light rain, and stratus clouds continue to wrap around a surface low to the northeast. Northwesterly winds will continue to increase throughout today, with gusts up to 20-30kts at all three terminals.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.