textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Two lines of storms will continue to track east through southwest Missouri for the rest of tonight, clearing our eastern area by 7-9 AM. - Coverage of severe hazards have been low, but damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to half dollars, and spin up tornadoes will all still be possible until the line clears.

- Localized flash flooding will continue tonight into this morning as consecutive lines of storms produce localized pockets of 3 to 5 inches of rain.

- Another system will bring a 85-95% chance of additional widespread showers and thunderstorms. There is currently a 15% chance for severe thunderstorms with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current radar imagery depicts two broken lines of thunderstorms across Missouri, as of 2 AM. The first line is slower moving as it was associated with a growing complex of storms that fired off the dryline in east Oklahoma. The second line is along the synoptic cold front dropping into west Missouri and southeast Kansas. This lines is faster moving due to the surging cold front. This front is on the eastern edge of the jet downstream of a positively tilted trough axis that extends from central Canada down through the Baja Peninsula.

Two lines of storms will continue east through early this morning:

The eastern line of storms will slowly continue eastward through this morning. The second line is progged to catch up to the first line due to the swiftly moving cold front. Hourly model guidance suggests the lines to merge in the eastern Ozarks before clearing the area by 7-9 AM. The leading thunderstorm line will clear by 7-9 AM, but lingering stratiform rain and lightning will still be possible through the early afternoon (20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks).

Severe hazards still possible despite continued weakening:

The trend of these storms have been weakening despite the environment still supportive of severe storms with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts of 0-6 km effective bulk shear. The second line has even been less impressive. RAP forecasts were suggesting a better environment advecting in ahead of the line following the first line. However, RAP initialized wind fields poorly as compared to the current KSGF VAD. RAP renewed strong low-level veering, though the VAD shows unidirectional southwest flow from 1-11 km. Needless to say, the RAP may be bunked and the severe environment is likely weaker than modeled.

That said, radar trends do show a few scattered cells within the line that have shown signs of pulsing up and weakly rotating. Therefore, severe hazards are still possible, though the coverage is expected to be rather low for the rest of tonight. Maximum intensity of hazards look to be wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to half dollars, and weak spin-up tornadoes.

The main residual risk is localized flash flooding. Due to the slower moving leading line, bands of 1-3 inches of rain have fallen in some areas, with localized pockets up to 3-4 inches. Expect widespread areas to see 0.5-1.5 inches, with localized pockets up to 4-5 inches, which may lead to nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding, especially due to recent rains.

Cooler temperatures today and tonight following cold front:

Behind the cold front passage, a low-level stratus deck is progged to move into the region. Cold air advection paired with these clouds should keep highs in the lower 50s west of Highway 65, and in the mid-50s to mid-60s along and east of Highway 63. Lows tonight will also be cooler in the middle 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Well above normal temperatures to continue through mid-week:

After the cooler temperatures tonight, southerly flow will resume as the surface high pressure behind the cold front translates east of the area. This will bring highs Sunday into the middle 60s to lower 70s. With moisture return lagging slightly behind, relative humidity values will also drop into the 25-35% range, bringing localized pockets of elevated fire danger. This is especially true for areas north of I-44 where winds are expected to be a bit greater in the 10-15 mph range. However, the widespread recent rainfall should make fuels less receptive and limit fire danger.

Global ensembles then forecast a closed low to slowly approach the area from the Baja Peninsula. Downstream southwesterly flow and amplified ridging will continue warm/moist air advection, bringing highs Monday and Tuesday into the upper 70s. NBM 75th percentile even has Springfield reaching 81 F, which would challenge the current record of 81 F. Lows Monday night will also be very mild due to the increased moisture, with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This would also challenge record low max temperatures. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index captures these well above normal temperatures well with both high and low temperatures nearing 1.00 in southwest Missouri, signaling near record temperatures.

Next system to bring severe thunderstorm chances Tuesday:

The aforementioned closed low is progged to lolly-gag its way into the southern Plains during mid-week. LREF clusters understandably show a range of timing/phasing of the low. This is par for the course for closed lows due to the sensitivity of their track due to vorticity advection on all sides. Nevertheless, due to the persistent moisture advection ahead of the low, a broad warm sector will be in place and with lift ahead of the low, another round of widespread showers and storms are likely Tuesday (85-95% chance) and Wednesday (60-85% chance). There may still be some deviations in exact timing due to the differing scenarios in LREF clusters of the speed of the wave. Indeed, from the 00Z LREF suite 24 hours ago, the closed low has slowed down a tad, increasing precipitation chances Wednesday as well.

There is, however, more certainty in a shortwave progression with the polar jet stream across the northern states. This leads to a greater chance for storms Tuesday as a cold front associated with this wave moves through. Given the unstable warm sector and increased shear from enhanced flow downstream of the closed low, severe weather would be possible with this system. The LREF grand ensemble has increased chances of the joint probability for MUCAPE >500 J/kg; 0-6 km bulk shear >35 kts; and precipitation >0.01" (essentially the chance for a severe thunderstorm environment with precipitation). Chances have increased from 30-40% last night, to 50-65% with the current suite of models. On the other hand, though, CSU/NCAR AI guidance have decreased severe probabilities for our area. The SPC continues to outlook us in a 15% risk for Tuesday. Continue to monitor the forecast for more details.

Above normal temperatures continue through the rest of the week:

Behind the system, temperatures are forecast to marginally cool, but with the polar jet stream progged to stay north of the area, above normal temperatures are still expected. Highs in the 60s are expected Wednesday through Friday, with the coolest day being Thursday in the middle to upper 50s. Lows range from the middle 30s to middle 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A line of thunderstorms is currently progressing through the SGF area at 06Z. This line of storms will continue eastward, impacting BBG. Right along the line, wind gusts up to 50-60 kts are the main hazard, before southwesterly winds take back hold after the line passes.

Short-term model guidance is in agreement with another line of storms moving through the TAF sites along a cold front between 08-12Z. Wind gusts up to 50 kts will also be possible with these.

Immediately following the second line of thunderstorms, the cold front will shift 8-12 kt winds to northwesterly and cigs will drop to IFR. Clouds have a 50-70% chance of lasting through 00Z, but it remains to be seen the exact coverage, thus BKN is used in the TAFs at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.