textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9 PM today to 6 PM Sunday. Forecast snowfall amounts between 6 to 14 inches will make for dangerous travel conditions.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight through 12 PM Monday. Single digit low temperatures above and below zero and wind chills below -10 F will be likely each morning this weekend.

- Behind the winter storm, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s through Thursday along with lows in the single digits to teens will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground to clear.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A 500 mb jet was oriented west to east extending from the Midwest into the northeast this afternoon. With southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas under the right entrance region, lift and saturated mid-levels have produced some elevated echoes over these areas. A layer of dry air at the surface has and will preclude any snow from making it to the surface until moisture return increases, however. Meanwhile, a closed upper- level low was spinning over the Pacific southwest and preparing to shift eastward. At the surface, an impressive 1050 mb high pressure was located over the Upper Midwest, bringing with it a very cold and dry airmass. Indeed, we have seen dew points drop today as dry air advects into southern Missouri from the north.

Snow Tonight through Sunday:

Round 1: Snow is expected to come in two (at least semi-discrete) rounds this weekend. The first round of snow will begin to move into southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas after 9 PM this evening as moisture surges northward and the low levels become saturated. Given the very dry air in the low levels, this process will take some time. Notably, models continue to vary in both the quality and timing of moisture advection. Thus, snowfall rates may initially be light this evening into the early overnight hours. This first round looks to be driven primarily by deep isentropic upglide coupled with lift from the right entrance region of the upper-level jet. Given the timing of the snowfall (mainly overnight), and the well below-freezing temperatures, any snow that does fall will begin to accumulate immediately. With forecast snow-to-liquid ratios in the 13-17:1 range, this snow will be light and fluffy in nature. To that end, there could be some patchy blowing snow across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri where winds remain somewhat elevated near 20 mph.

Round 2: As hinted by global models previously, CAMs show better the potential for at least a partial break in the accumulating snow late Saturday afternoon and evening as we sit between the two primary forcing mechanisms. There could be some lingering light snow through this period, but accumulations are forecast to be light. The second round will ramp up late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as the aforementioned upper-level low pivots to the east. The combined upper-level jet influence will promote deep tropospheric ascent across southern Missouri that will support generally heavier snowfall rates than the first round. This second round will be when the "better" potential is for some sleet to mix in across extreme southern Missouri. Inspection of HREF soundings shows that 800-700 mb temperatures may approach or just exceed the 0 degree mark that could result in partial melting of the snow. It should be noted, however, that models have trended slightly cooler over the last 12 hours, and therefore, this potential has decreased. Precipitation chances decrease Sunday evening as the upper-level low continues its northeastward pivot.

How Much Snow Will I Get? There is medium to high confidence that the second round of snow (Saturday night into Sunday morning) will be the heavier round of the two, so don't be caught off guard if you wake up Saturday morning and there's not a whole lot of snow on the ground. The 25th percentile snowfall amounts through the entirety of the event ranges from 6 to 10 inches across the area as a reasonable low- end scenario. The 75th percentile ranges from 10 to 14 inches across the area as a reasonable high-end scenario.

Dangerous Cold this Weekend:

A bitterly cold airmass will sink into southern Missouri and southeast Kansas tonight. Low temperatures will be in the single digits to near zero degrees, with wind chills between -10 to -15 degrees. Saturday afternoon will not warm much at all with little in the way of solar radiation; highs are forecast to be in the teens to near 10 degrees areawide. For Saturday night, wind chills will be in the -5 to -10 degree range. Sunday night will be the coldest of this stretch, with wind chills between -10 to -20 degrees. This is approaching our Extreme Cold Warning criteria, but we have held off on any upgrade of the current advisory at this time. The impact of snowpack will also be more easily assessed in future forecasts.

This cold will be dangerous for anyone who is outdoors. However, it will be particularly dangerous to any travelers who become stranded on the roads. Avoid travel if at all possible, but for those who have to be on the road, be equipped for dangerously cold conditions.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Near to Below-freezing temperatures through the Week:

The sun will come out on Monday. However, temperatures will struggle to get out of the teens all day, so little snow melt will occur. Interestingly, the NBM deterministic forecast is above the 75th percentile almost every day next week. With lingering snowpack, these temperatures may ultimately be too high. This would mean that much if not all of the area will remain below freezing throughout the entire week, reducing snow melt potential.

Dry through Next Week:

The good news is that ensemble clusters generally agree in keeping the area under a dry northwest flow aloft pattern through at least Thursday. In fact, NBM precipitation chances remain below 10% through this period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings will start to creep into the area as snow starts to make it to the ground. Heavier bands of snow tonight and tomorrow will reduce visibilities down to under 1 SM at times. Northeasterly winds will stay elevated through the period just under 15 knots. There will be a break in snow Saturday afternoon around 20z, but ceilings will remain low. Then, the next round of snow will start after 00z Sunday and will also contain heavy bands that will reduce visibilities.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.