textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7am Wednesday morning. Afternoon heat index values peak around 95 to 105. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s and humid conditions. Humid conditions persist through Thursday.

- Low confidence in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm across southeast KS into west central MO on Wednesday night. Most of the area remains dry.

- Slight (2 of 5) Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across most of the area on Thursday afternoon into the evening.

- Cooler in the lower 80s this weekend, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Saturday and Sunday. Increasing confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: Visible satellite imagery depicts clearing skies this afternoon with subsidence in place behind a departing morning thunderstorm complex. Dewpoints are gradually recovering into the upper 60s to lower 70s, supporting heat index values into the middle 90s to lower 100s (95 to 105 degrees). For this reason, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through the remainder of today. Given the minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s and lingering humid conditions, the Heat Advisory will not expire until 7am Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Wednesday: A warm and humid airmass remains in place on Wednesday with increasing low-level southerly flow. Expect gusty south- southwest winds, upwards of 20 to 30 mph. Occasional higher gusts may occur towards the Interstate 49 corridor. Gusty winds persist into Thursday. Meanwhile, highs reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with afternoon heat index values peaking in the afternoon around 95 to 100. While this will be yet another humid day, confidence is rather high in the area remaining below Heat Advisory criteria (105 or higher). This can be gleaned from probabilistic guidance:

Prob of Apparent T > 95: 60-90% Prob of Apparent T > 100: 20-50% Prob of Apparent T > 105: Less than 10%

Cloud cover gradually increases through the later part of Wednesday with an approaching shortwave. Recent trends continue to support the remnants of any thunderstorms remaining north and west of the area. SPC nudges a Marginal (1 of 5) to a Slight (2 of 5) into portions of southeast KS and west central/central MO. Confidence in this area seeing any thunderstorms is low. If isolated thunderstorms do make it into the area, the primary risks would be hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Most areas are likely to remain dry through Wednesday night.

Thursday: Guidance continues to highlight Thursday as a bit more of a favorable setup for strong to severe thunderstorms. A compact shortwave builds into the Plains, with an associated surface low cold front progged to slide through the region. Ahead of this cold front, strong warm advection supports dewpoints into the middle 70s. This will allow heat index values to reach into the upper 90s to lower 100s, though confidence remains low in exceeding advisory criteria at this time. Regardless, humid conditions can be expected Thursday ahead of the approaching front. Meanwhile, the environment becomes increasingly favorable to support strong to severe thunderstorms. Ample instability builds into the area, with MUCAPE values progged to push 3000-4000+ J/kg. The potential limiting factor could be shear. Current guidance suggests anywhere from 25-30 knots of deep layer shear. This would suggest multi-cell clusters as the main storm mode, with damaging wind gusts and large hail as primary hazards. However, there is a scenario that if more shear is introduced, supercells become more favorable with all hazards. We will continue to monitor the trends with the environment, in addition to CAMs over the next 24 to 48 hours. The general consensus on timing is Thursday afternoon into the evening, before the front clears the area Thursday night.

This Weekend-Early Next Week: Cooler temperatures into the weekend with highs backing in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. As the pattern becomes more zonal in nature, the frontal boundary will lift back north through the area into Saturday and Sunday. There remains some differences within the ensembles on timing and location of additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms, though good agreement exists in overall chances (60-90%) this weekend. While all day washouts are not expected, rounds of thunderstorms look to persist through much of the weekend beyond Friday. A severe risk is not apparent at this time (though may materialize), but there is increasing concern for additional flooding given the saturated soils from this week's rainfall. Of particular concern, is on Saturday and Saturday night with a WPC Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook (2 of 4). Continue to monitor the forecast for updates as we progress through this week into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions ahead through much of the TAF period, outside of a low end chance (<20%) for an isolated shower or thunderstorm at KBBG through the afternoon. Otherwise, scattered mid to high level clouds with south-southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Breezy conditions ahead on Wednesday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.