textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. Primary hazards are localized heavy rainfall and lightning. Additional low chances on Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Monday and Tuesday, with heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees. The hottest day occurs on Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures mid to late week, with rain chances (20-40%) returning late Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: An upper-level ridge is positioned over the Plains, with a trough dipping into the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS. Surface high pressure is situated north of the area, and will push a frontal boundary towards the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. This frontal boundary is the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with primary hazards being localized heavy rainfall and lightning. The environment this afternoon is characterized by ample moisture (PWATs 1.8 to 2.0 inches) in the vicinity of an unstable airmass (MUCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Meanwhile, another hot and humid day across the Ozarks with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105. Moisture convergence intensifies through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage across central and south central MO through the evening. Areas that do see thunderstorms may see localized heavy rainfall with rainfall rates approaching 1 to 3 inches per a hour. The highly localized amounts are captured by the latest HREF/RRFS guidance. On the other hand, some areas may remain completely dry through this evening. Scattered activity diminishes through the evening, with lows falling into the 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Monday-Tuesday: Hot and humid conditions to begin the week, with increasing mid- level heights as the ridge to our west builds into the region. While some mixing will occur on Monday, we are not expecting dewpoints to fall out of the lower 70s. As a result, confidence remains relatively high in humid conditions persisting and supporting a Heat Advisory for both Monday and Tuesday. The greatest confidence in exceeding advisory criteria across the entire area is on Tuesday. For Monday, expect highs in the lower to middle 90s, and heat index values around 100 to 105+ areawide. A bit warmer into Tuesday, with highs in the middle to upper 90s to around 100 (southeast KS and far southwest MO). This will further amplify heat index values around 100 to 110. Diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% chances) may occur both days, mainly across south central MO. In general, most of the area remains dry on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday-Next Weekend: Seasonable temperatures behind the frontal passage on Wednesday into Thursday, with highs ranging from lower/middle 80s (east) to upper 80s/lower 90s (west). This temperature range will ultimately be determined by the position of ridge to our west and trough to our east, with NBM interquartile spreads remaining around 8 to 10 degrees for forecasted highs. Nonetheless, it looks to be drier through mid-week.

Ensemble guidance depicts the ridge flattening into late Thursday and Friday, with shortwave energy translating through the flow. This supports the return of rain chances (20-40%), though lingering uncertainty remains on the exact placement and timing of mesoscale features. Guidance diverges into next weekend, with larger temperature spreads and differences on potential rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A cumulus field is overspreading the area this afternoon with a frontal boundary stalling into east-central MO. West-southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots through this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon into the early evening, though confidence remains relatively low on the extent of coverage. For this reason, we have captured the potential with PROB30 groups. Reduced ceilings and visibilities would accompany any activity, with brief heavy downpours and lightning. Clouds gradually scatter into late evening, with winds becoming light and variable.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.