textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday as heat index values warm to around 100 to 105 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows in the 70s. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Isolated pulse-like thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours both today and tomorrow. Coverage/probability is less than 30 percent and most locations should remain dry.

- More scattered showers and storms may push south into portions of the area north of Highway 54 late tonight into Saturday morning. Another round of storms will then be possible across portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather with that activity, with damaging winds as the primary hazard.

- Additional storm chances (20-50%) will be possible across the area at times from Sunday into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The upper level ridge continues to push east through the eastern CONUS, with the upper high centered over parts of the Mid- Atlantic region. There were a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms that developed over the eastern Ozarks close to east-central Missouri this morning, however that activity has since weakened and/or moved further away from the area, with radar as of 2PM only showing a couple isolated showers.

Weather conditions today will be very similar to yesterday, in that it'll be hot with isolated pulse-like storms this afternoon/evening. Temperatures so far are generally ranging in the mid 80s to low 90s (as of 2PM), with peak heating leading to a few more degrees expected over the next couple hours topping out in the low 90s for a majority of the area. Did end up increasing dewpoints a bit for today and Saturday, as the NBM came in a few degrees lower than observations the past several days. This increased expected heat indices a bit, with apparent temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s (up to 105+ degrees especially on Saturday). The Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8PM Saturday. With many likely having outdoor plans for the Holiday weekend, make sure to take the necessary precautions to stay safe from heat-related illnesses.

As the afternoon progresses, the cap will continue to break, with ample instability and peak heating leading to isolated pulse-like showers and storms expected until sunset. As is the case with typical summer-time pulse thunderstorms, most activity should remain sub-severe. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm producing gusty winds up to 50-55mph as it collapses, with the better chances of this occurring closer to central MO (generally north of Highway 54).

Later this evening, Thunderstorms are progged to develop over the Central/Northern Plains, developing into an MCS and pushing southeast towards the region overnight. The expectation is for this complex to weaken as it approaches our forecast area by sunrise, as a strong capping inversion will be in place. There is a chance (<30%) that it can tap into some uncapped instability for areas north of Highway 54 around sunrise, however this is a low-confidence scenario, with the current expectation being sub-severe showers/storms reaching the northern CWA. Any storms should dissipate fairly quickly as they continue pushing south.

The outflow from this complex will continue pushing south into the area however, which will be the spark for additional pulse- like activity Saturday afternoon/evening as the capping inversion weakens in areas that can clear out the clouds.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

As Saturday progresses, the upper level ridge out east will continue pushing away from the area, with another upper level ridge building over the Desert Southwest/Southern Rockies. As a result, the area will be caught under pseudo-zonal flow aloft, with upper level disturbances associated with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains pushing through. As a result, thunderstorms will develop over the Central Plains during the afternoon, pushing southeast during the evening before developing into an MCS and reaching our area overnight into Sunday morning. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing of this reaching us, as it will likely depend on when/where storms develop and how progressive they are. Additionally, some CAMs suggest a more southern track, with others tracking this further north, leading to lower confidence in the overall system. Regardless, if/when this complex tracks through our area, it will bring a risk of severe weather, with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas west of Highway 65 and northwest of I-44 in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), with a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk elsewhere.

Once this activity weakens/pushes out around sunrise Sunday, additional sub-severe scattered storms will be possible through the afternoon and evening. A slight relief from the heat is expected, as afternoon highs only reach the upper 80s for a majority of the area, with heat indices remaining below 100.

Heading into the beginning of next week, as the upper level trough continues pushing northeast of the area, the upper level ridge to our west will continue building over the Plains, placing the area in northwest flow aloft. Several upper level disturbances look to bring daily chances (20-40%) of showers/storms during the evening/overnight hours however more modifications will need to be made in future forecast updates as we get a better idea of how the area will be impacted.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. There will be chances (<20%) for isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, however with coverage and confidence in terminals being affected remaining limited, decided to keep out of the TAFs for now and just mention here. Will continue to update/amend if coverage increases.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.