textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday afternoons. More widespread rain chances will occur Saturday night and Sunday (50-90%). No severe weather expected at this time.

- Monitoring for flash flood potential this weekend, especially on Sunday. All of our area is in a Slight Risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall on Sunday. A Flood Watch may be needed later this weekend. - Temperature and precipitation favored to be above average for next week. Highs will be in the upper 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A cold front is draped over the north-central Plains and has sparked convection just to its south over northern MO. That convection has been very slow moving which has led to flash flooding over northern MO. Fortunately, that activity has stayed further north and won't impact us. Though, we have another mid- level trough working its way east over the southern Plains that will impact parts of southern MO later today. A bit of energy will eject from the incoming low later this afternoon and bring a chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. None of this activity is expected to be severe and these storms will be very isolated. If convection does occur, it'll primarily stay south of I-44. There are a few CAM solutions that have the convection that's currently to our north, moving east throughout the day and bringing us a low-end chance (15-20%) for showers over central MO. There will be plenty of moisture in place today with dewpoints in the 70s, but the lift will be lacking. Perhaps a few thunderstorms could spark off of an outflow off the main system, and if they did, they'd mostly be east of Highway 63.

The mid-level trough begins to move northeast by Saturday and will bring us a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms. We'll start to see a few showers and thunderstorms move in ahead of the trough by late morning/early afternoon. The rain chances increase as the day goes on and the low moves closer towards us. Rain chances in the morning/afternoon will be 30-50% with rain chances after midnight increasing to 40-70%. With the track of this system, SW MO will have the highest chance to see rain. Again, no severe weather is expected, but we will have to monitor for any flash flooding potential.

Today and Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy due to the incoming low. Though, it'll still feel warm and muggy with dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the mid 80s. Lows will also feel warm in the mid 60s over the next couple of days.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The trough will continue to bring us rain chances for Sunday. WPC has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (2/4) for Sunday. If this trend continues, we may need a Flood Watch later this weekend due to saturated soils and elevated river levels. Sunday will likely have widespread rain showers for the late morning/afternoon hours. There is a 60-95% chance for rain with a few rumbles of thunder. Some areas may see 2 inches of rain or more by the end of the weekend. There will be localized higher amounts that fall especially if any storms train over the same areas this weekend. Then, to start the week, a shortwave moves through right after the low pressure system lifts northeast. This will keep our rain chances elevated through late Monday with a 30-50% chance for thunderstorms. No severe weather expected at this time.

High temperatures start to get even warmer as we enter into next week. Daytime highs will be in the upper 90s by midweek. It will feel warm and muggy with dewpoints in the mid 70s as well. Unfortunately, it's that time of year where we need to start mentioning heat indices. Heat indices will be in the lower 100s for most of the area for Tuesday-Thursday. Lows for the long term period also stay fairly warm in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Low end VFR to high end MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon, followed by improving conditions this evening and tonight. KBBG may see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 30% chances for showers and MVFR ceilings then develop Saturday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.