textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds of 35-45 mph will occur at times today. The strongest winds will generally be along and northwest of I-44.

- Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight with all hazards possible. Primary hazards are hail up to baseball size, 70-80 mph winds, and a few tornadoes. The greatest severe risk is across central MO. Localized heavy rainfall may support localized flash flooding this evening and tonight.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday into early Thursday night, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and flash flooding are possible.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

An isolated elevated storm developed across east central Kansas late Tuesday evening and is slowly moving south/southeast early this morning across southeastern Kansas. A more stable airmass and a cap are in place south of the storm. Therefore, the storm is expected to weakening as it moves further to the south/southeast early this morning. Some weak uncapped MUCAPE will clip portions of central Missouri early this morning, (4-8am) some isolated showers and a storm or two will be possible in these locations. Coverage should be limited and most locations remaining dry.

A strong cap will develop over the area the rest of this morning through much of the afternoon hours with dry conditions expected during this timeframe. An area of surface low pressure will move across Minnesota and Iowa today resulting in the pressure gradient tightening across the area. As a result gusty south to southwesterly winds will develop early this morning and occur into this afternoon/early evening. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur at times. The strongest winds will generally occur along and northwest of I-44 today. Warm air advection will occur across the area today allowing highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. Heat index values this afternoon will be in the lower 90s to around 100 degrees.

As the area of surface low pressure moves to the east today a cold front will move southeast across northern Missouri this afternoon then into central Missouri late this afternoon into early this evening and will continue to move south into the area into tonight. An upper level trough will also move east across Iowa today and off to the east tonight. With the better upper level support remaining to the north and northeast, the front will likely stall across southern Missouri tonight into Thursday before pushing south of the area by Thursday night.

As the upper level trough moves east across Iowa this afternoon the cap will start to weaken ahead of the front from north to south into the area this evening. Instability will increase with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across central Missouri gradually weakening to the south into southern Missouri. Deep layer shear will also increase to 50 to 60kt this evening and with the instability will support the potential for severe storms this evening, and possibility some strong storms into tonight. This is captured with the latest SPC Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk with the highest potential across central Missouri. Supercells are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon and slide through the area this evening into tonight generally pushing in the northern portions of the area afternoon 5PM. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds up to 70 to 80mph especially with any bowing segments, and a few tornadoes as low level shear also increases this evening, especially north of I-44 towards the Highway 54 corridor where the better instability and shear will be in place.

As the storms move south the front will start to stall, until a secondary front pushing south through the area Thursday morning, across southern Missouri late this evening into tonight, likely near Hwy 60. Low level shear is weaker further south, but uncapped instability will remain in place over night and storms could develop and move east along the front tonight. An 850mb front will move south across the area Thursday afternoon and evening with scattered showers and storms lingering at times through Thursday evening. There will remain the potential for some strong to severe storms with large up to golf ball size and 60 mph wind gusts the main risk late tonight through Thursday mainly along and south of Highway 60. 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be from west to east, so there could be the potential for some localized training of storms where the front stalls. HREF LPMM rainfall amounts show the potential for a localized band of 2-3" of rainfall tonight through Thursday. This could lead to localized flooding where any training of storms can setup. Highs will be in the middle 70s to the lower 80s on Thursday with clouds and scattered rain occurring at times through the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface high pressure will move over the region on Friday with dry conditions expected. Highs are expected to warm into the lower 80s Friday afternoon.

A warm front will lift back northeast through the area on Saturday. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the warm front on Saturday. The ensemble model members then show a shortwave trough moving east through the region sometime as early as Saturday night and as late as later Sunday as timing differences remain between the models. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely with the shortwave, and will likely linger into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A few areas of low (2500ft) cumulus streets are developing late this morning under otherwise clear skies. Southwesterly winds are sustained 15-25kts with gusts up to 35kts this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the north.

The cold front will arrive around 01-02Z to the KSGF and KJLN sites (an hour or so later to KBBG) and will bring scattered shower and thunderstorm chances with it. Broken clusters of storms are expected to be developed along this cold front as it arrives, but with diminishing coverage and intensity as it progresses to the south. Confidence is too low in coverage (and thus, whether the terminals themselves will be impacted) at this point to include a prevailing group for thunderstorms, but confidence has increased to >30% so have upped the SGF/JLN storm groups from prob30 to TEMPO. Winds will diminish and turn north/northeasterly with the arrival of the front.

Additional scattered showers and storms may be possible through the overnight hours and on Thursday as the front stalls across southern Missouri, but confidence is low in whether the storms will develop and how widespread the coverage will be.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.