textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal to slight risk for severe storms this evening and night. The highest chances for severe storms are along and northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri Line. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with a line of thunderstorms.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Severe storms this evening into tonight: - Impacts: Severe storm hazards. Slight flooding threat. - Details: SPC severe threat ranges from slight along and NW of a Branson to Rolla line and Marginal SE of this line. Primary hazard is damaging winds, but brief tornado spinups and 1 inch hail are also possible. - Confidence: High confidence in timing (6pm-5am). High confidence in primarily linear storm mode. Medium confidence in flooding threat. - Meteorological Analysis: - A cold front will move in from the NW this evening and exit the area late tonight/early Saturday, forcing a line of storms. - Scattered convection is possible this afternoon ahead of the front, but limited shear and elevated nature of these storms prevents severe weather from being expected. - Primary hazard with the evening/overnight storms is expected to be damaging winds to 60-70 mph given 30-40 kt mean 0-6 km winds, 1,000-1,300 J/kg of CAPE (less to the east later in the night), and 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Wind fields are nearly parallel to the front, supporting linear storm mode. - Given linear mode and 0-3 km shear of 30-35 kts vectored to the NE, there may be a few brief tornadic spinups in segments that bow out to the NE. - Could see some isolated 1 inch hail, but think this will not be common given storm mode. - New SPC day 1 outlook did increase tornado and hail probabilities (including conditional probabilities), but need to monitor for changes in guidance that suggest non- linear modes to match this trend with local messaging. - Flooding is not a major concern given fairly progressive nature of the front, but with nearly front-parallel flow there could be some localized opportunities for training. HREF LPMM values suggest potential for localized amounts up to 2-3 inches, which is similar to 3 hour FFG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Cooler with frost potential this weekend into early next week: - Impacts: Frost potential - Details: Forecast lows in the mid 30s to low 40s Saturday night through Monday night. Potentially lingering cooler temps into Tuesday night over the eastern Ozarks. - Confidence: Medium to high confidence in temperatures. Medium confidence in frost. - Meteorological Analysis: A cooler airmass moves in this weekend into early next week, resulting in cooler overnight lows. In typical cold valleys and where winds can become light, locally cooler temperatures and frost will be possible.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For today, expect gusty southerly winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at KSGF and KBBG this afternoon and evening, but the better chances for storms across the area will be with a line of storms along a front that will move southwest through the are late this evening into tonight. Severe storms are possible with the later round of storms.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.