textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the area from southwest to northeast starting as early as 10 AM to 12 PM, lasting through the evening (50-70% chance). Following showers and storms, some drizzle may occur.

- Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for some storms to become strong to severe today, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail up to golf balls to tennis balls is the main hazard throughout the day, with a conditional damaging wind and tornado risk this afternoon and evening.

- Due to chances of storms throughout the day, localized flooding may occur with any repeated rainfalls or training of storms.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday and onward.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

After quite a long stretch of severe weather, skies are finally clear as a surface cold front has cleared south and east of the area -- for now at least. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- and upper- level shortwave currently pushing through south CO/north NM. RAP analysis already is depicting moderate 700 mb warm air advection (WAA) nosing into southwest Missouri as the wave begins forcing a lee surface low in the OK/TX panhandle region. As these features progress eastward this morning, the aforementioned cold front is progged to lift back north as a warm front within the WAA regime. This will bring renewed 50-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and into the early evening. Basically, the weather is saying "I ain't hear no bell".

Slight to Enhanced Risk for severe storms throughout today:

Westerly mid-level flow sourced from the desert southwest is already bringing an elevated mixed layer (EML) of 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates across Kansas and into western Missouri. As the warm front lifts north into our area, low-level moisture will increase below these lapse rates, increasing instability to 1000-2000 J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE along the boundary, according to the RAP and HREF mean. Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow will act to bring quite a lot of shear to the area with effective 0-6 km deep-layer shear at 50-60+ kts. Thus, severe thunderstorms are possible again today along and south of the boundary, which is progged to setup along the I-44 corridor.

With low- to mid-level WAA increasing and the shortwave approaching from the west, lift will be plentiful within the zone of uncapped instability spreading into the area. Therefore, showers and storms are expected to develop as early as 10 AM to 12 PM which is when the instability axis is progged to reach into southeast Kansas and extreme southwest Missouri. This will present the risk for showers and thunderstorms, some perhaps severe, anywhere between 10 AM until the front clears the area again around 10 PM to midnight.

Large hail is the main hazard risk throughout the day:

Given initial elevated instability for much of mid-day, large hail will be the main risk. High amounts of deep-layer shear will support supercells, which already would be enough forcing to produce up to golf ball sized hail. That said, an analysis of the environment also shows steep 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, and strong venting aloft (55-65+ kts). Additionally, soundings depict much of the MUCAPE within the HGZ, with weak values below the HGZ. This, paired with strong storm-relative inflow, may be enough of a thermodynamic/kinematic balance for hail up to limes to tennis balls. Of additional note, hodographs are very long and straight above the surface inversion which would favor splitting supercells. In fact, some CAM members show decent backing aloft through the 1-6 km layer, which may actually favor left-movers over right-movers. Since left-movers generally overachieve hail size (and/or amount), this adds confidence to the potential for hail larger than golf balls. Soundings also show somewhat lower equilibrium levels, and paired with elevated storm bases, the environment looks good for mini, low-topped, left-moving supercells at least during mid-day to mid-afternoon.

Conditional tornado risk may develop this afternoon and evening:

After the initial round of showers and storms between 10 AM and 4 PM, there's is uncertainty in shower, storm, and severe chances between 4 PM and midnight. Given large-scale synoptic ascent with the lifting warm front, these storms may be somewhat widespread, which could overturn the atmosphere, washing out mid-level lapse rates and associated MUCAPE, as well as the cooler surface air keeping the surface warm frontal boundary south of the area. Forecaster intuition and pattern recognition points to this as the most likely scenario, effectively ending the severe threat by early evening.

However, some CAMs suggest a less robust round of storms during the day and/or better recovery following the storms as mass- response with the approaching wave/surface low advects moisture back north. Therefore, I must talk about the this potential scenario. If there is less robust storms during the day, and/or decent recovery during the afternoon, the surface warm front could lift some distance north into our southern CWA. If this occurs, surface-based instability would develop across our south-central CWA (HREF gives a 40-50% chance for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE). Additionally, winds would turn southerly in this area, and with an approaching surface low, models even bring them southeasterly, elongating hodographs in the low-levels with 100-200 0-1 km m2/s2 and 15-25 kts of 0-1 km shear. Despite the elongation, low-level shear a bit on the marginal side may still limit the threat and/or continue the large hail threat. But, we will have a boundary in the vicinity, so mesoscale boundary oopsie action could still occur. This would present a tornado risk for any storms that can develop along the warm-front- turned-cold-front that drops through after 4 PM. This risk is of course conditional on the frontal boundary lifting north into the area, so trends of mid-day convection and subsequent recovery will need to be monitored for this scenario. Any tornado risk should generally remain confined to south of Highway 60 and east of Highway 65.

Localized flooding may occur with any repeated rainfalls:

With somewhat widespread showers and thunderstorms expected during the day (along with a potential second round during the evening), a localized flooding risk will be present for any location that sees the stronger storms and/or repeated storms.

As the cold front drops through the area, lingering moisture and lift would present the chance for drizzle this evening. All precipitation chances should clear our area by midnight, of which temperatures will cool to the lower 50s in south-central Missouri, and the lower 40s in west-central Missouri.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures rest of the week:

The surface cold front is forecast to stay well south of the area for the remainder of the week as upper-level flow remains rather zonal with the jet right over our area. This will keep us in below average temperatures through at least Saturday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The coolest day/night looks to be Friday and Friday night as a trough moves through the area. High temperatures look to be in the lower 60s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, which may present a frost risk if trends continue decreasing temperatures. Also during this time period, there could be a low 15-25% chance for light stratiform rain in our far southern counties as the trough traverses the area.

NBM and LREF ensembles hint at a warm-up beginning Sunday into early next week back to near normal temperatures in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Quite a few aviation weather events are expected within the 06Z TAF period. Firstly, 5-10 kts northwesterly winds will gradually shift to easterly by 15-18Z, increasing to 8-12 kts. Before this timeframe, an MVFR stratus deck noted on satellite imagery over central Missouri may make it down to SGF/JLN. Models suggest the deck stalling before reaching the sites, but added a SCT030 to cover the potential. At the same time, a warm front will lift north through BBG, which could also bring MVFR stratus clouds.

Secondly, as the warm front lifts north, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at all TAF sites between 15-21Z (70-90% chance). Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing lightning and hail, especially at BBG. Along with the warm front, an MVFR to IFR stratus deck is forecast to move in.

Thirdly, after 19-21Z, the chance for thunderstorms still remains, but becomes more isolated (<40% chance) as a surface low pressure system traverses the area. Therefore, have included a PROB30 for this timeframe. Once again, lightning and hail will both be hazards, especially at BBG.

Fourthly, as the surface low pressure system departs, lingering lift and moisture could create some drizzle during the 23-04Z timeframe.

Lastly, the departing low pressure system will have 8-12 kt winds shift back to northerly for the end of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.