textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warming today with highs in the 90s for most.

- Strong to severe storms possible Wednesday with multiple rounds of rain expected through Friday. Excessive rainfall may become a concern.

- Extreme heat possible again next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Low temperatures this morning are expected to cool into the low 60s in south-central Missouri and to right around 70 along the Kansas border. Skies are mostly clear with light southeast winds. With the sunrise, temperatures will begin to warm to highs in the upper 80s out east to the upper 90s in the west. While surface flow will be relatively light, stronger WAA associated with a low pressure system just to the west will influence our western counties in particular, paired with mostly sunny skies allowing for efficient insolation. This will be the first day in a while that some may see Heat Index values around 100, especially along the Kansas border.

Though a low pressure system is nearby, the influence of synoptic high pressure will hold on a bit longer. No precipitation is expected today, though cloud cover will slowly increase, especially overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning as the primary front to the northwest moves closer. Winds will remain light out of the southeast tonight, and the increase in cloud cover will keep early morning lows in the mid-70s west of Hwy 65 and in the upper 60s to the east.

As the front approaches tomorrow, south-southwest flow enhances WAA, and clouds stay broken enough through the early afternoon for daytime highs to climb a couple of degrees higher. The southwest corner of the CWA is looking at highs nearing 100 while the rest of the area will remain in the low to mid 90s. Areas along the Kansas and western Arkansas borders may see Heat Index values approach 105, however this will likely be localized and is not widespread enough to warrant heat headlines just yet.

As the main trough approaches through the day, shortwave energy ahead of the front may be capable of initiating a few storms, especially as instability begins to ramp up in the afternoon. These would be displaced from the better shear and should remain sub- severe. The main front should arrive in the evening, encountering 3- 4K J/Kg of CAPE and deep layer shear in excess of 35 kts. With 0-3 km shear vectors just a bit offset from line-normal, a mixed-mode event looks most likely, with the primary hazard damaging winds with line segments formed by congealing cells. Small hail may be possible with initial storms if they stay discrete long enough. The best chance for storms will be north of I-44, with PoPs ranging from around 40% along the plateau up to 70% in west- central MO. Those south of the interstate will likely not see much activity until later in the week, activity that is expected to be both more isolated in nature and less intense.

As the primary trough moves through, the low pressure center that has been sitting off to the southwest extends an inverted trough of sorts that joins forces with it, allowing more rain to move in behind the frontal energy as it begins to retreat to the north. This low will have upper level support with several shortwaves passing overhead that keep the precipitation potential going.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The rain moving through Thursday will remain mostly benign, though a potentially sufficient combination of convergence and instability in the afternoon could allow storms to put down some stronger wind gusts. It will temper daytime highs a touch, with those nearer central MO seeing highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with those in far southwest MO seeing highs in the mid-90s. PoPs remain largely below 40% for most of the day, ramping up to around 60% south of I- 44 overnight into Friday as a deeper shortwave trough passes overhead.

Rain slowly comes to an end from west to east Friday, however PoPs perk back up to 20-30% east of Hwy 65 overnight into Saturday as the shortwave deepens over southeast MO. Temperatures sit near and even a bit below normal Friday as the clouds and precipitation cool us off and inhibit further warming. With repeated rounds of rain over several days, excessive rainfall and flooding may become a concern, especially Thursday and Friday for areas that see repeated rainfall.

The weekend looks dry with slowly increasing temperatures. Highs will land in the 90s with Heat Index values around 100 for most. The risk for Extreme Heat returning next week remains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites this afternoon through Wednesday morning. A few diurnal cumulus clouds with bases around 6 to 7kft this afternoon. Winds will be out of the south to southwest this afternoon and more south to southeasterly tonight, generally at 10kt or below.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.