textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-40% chance for light showers north of I-44 this afternoon and evening. A stray weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out north of Highway 54.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures through the end of the week. Low potential for patchy frost exists in the eastern Ozarks Friday and Saturday nights.

- Temperatures are expected to warm back up to near or above average early next week. 30-70% shower and thunderstorm chances also return with this pattern change starting Monday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Cool high pressure over the region was allowing for a rather nice day across the Ozarks. The overall upper level pattern was fairly zonal across the region with more northerly trajectories across the northern plains and the front range of the Rockies. Over the next 24 hours, the pattern is expected to remain the same.

A fairly week cold front was moving south in the upper level flow with a reinforcing cool surface high behind it. This will being a wind shift to the north this afternoon into the evening. As for precipitation, there is some indications of some very limited elevated instability, no more than 200j/kg along the elevated 850mb front. As a result, this may be just enough to allow for a few sprinkles or showers across portions of the Ozarks with the best potential north of Highway 54. If a shower does develop and can take advantage of every bit of instability, it might be able to produce a rumble of thunder or two, but overall, rain chances are less that 30-40 percent with most areas less than 20 percent.

The cold front will slide south of the area through today which will allow temperatures to be cooler than average with highs in the middle 60s. Clouds overhead through the day and night will keep lows tonight a bit warmer in the lower to middle 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The overall upper level pattern will continue to favor cooler than average temperatures through the end of the work week into the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be the coolest Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Lows for both Friday and Saturday night will be chilly in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Light winds and relatively clearer skies at night could then lead to a low potential for patchy frost, especially in low-lying areas that drop to 36 F or below. Areas most likely to see the coolest temperatures are expected to be across the eastern Ozarks. Therefore, care should be given to any vulnerable plants/crops the next few nights.

A pattern change begins on Saturday with synoptic models showing a shortwave dropping through the area which may be able to squeeze out some light rain. If the rain does occur, this would be in the form of light showers or sprinkles.

By Sunday night into early next week, the upper level pattern will begin to shift allowing southerly surface winds to begin to bring warmer air and moisture into the area allowing for the beginnings of a warming trend. Initially, the moisture advection will be limited as the source region for the southerly flow will come out out of the desert southwest. The flow will eventually come of the western Gulf as a shortwave and cold front move through the Ozarks late Monday into Tuesday morning with additional potential into Wednesday. which could bring the next round of precipitation, albeit limited, for the Ozarks.

Dynamic model ensembles continue to hinting at severe potential with this pattern change as the simulated environment has increased probabilities from 10-25% to a 15-30% chance for severe weather. Cluster analysis depicts mainly timing differences in shortwave progression, which means any severe risk will likely be confined to one of the days between Monday night and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Despite high pressure over the region, middle to high cloud cover will increase across this afternoon and into tonight. Surface winds will be generally light from 4 to 8mph and mostly variable. A weak cold front is expected to move through the Ozarks early this afternoon.

Along with the cold front, there will be a slight chance around 15 percent with any increased lift that may be able to produce showers mainly north of the regions terminals. The chances are small enough that rain was not included in the TAFS but will be watched.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.