textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Highs in the middle to upper 80s through the upcoming weekend.

- Daily humidity values will drop into the 20-35% range however light winds (gusts less than 15mph) will keep the fire weather threat limited.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Today-Tonight: Surface high pressure is in place east of the area, with mid- level ridging continuing to build east out of the Four Corners region. This pattern will continue to support dry conditions and above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Likewise to Monday, dewpoints in the 40s will give way to minimum afternoon relative humidity values around 20 to 30 percent. The lowest values, perhaps below 20 percent, will be focused along and east of Highway 65. Despite the dry conditions and warm temperatures, light winds will remain a limiting factor for fire weather concerns despite easier fire starts. Winds remain around 10 to 15 mph or less. Otherwise, clear skies persist through tonight with lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s. The lowest temperatures will be found in the sheltered areas and valleys of the eastern Ozarks.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Wednesday-Early Next Week: Further warming occurs into mid-week as 850mb temperatures approach 16 to 18 C. This will correlate to high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. This is 10+ degrees above normal for early October. Despite the abnormally warm temperatures, it appears we will remain shy of any record highs in the lower 90s. Overall, confidence is high in the anomalous warm weather through this week and weekend, as gleaned by the small NBM interquartile spreads.

Additionally, the dry pattern is expected to persist with minimal PoPs in the forecast. The next "chance" for any measurable precipitation occurs with passing energy to the east of the area from tropical remnants lifting out of the Gulf. Confidence is low in this potential, with PoPs of 10 to 15 percent glancing southeast MO late Sunday. Ensemble guidance continues to favor a mostly dry scenario for the area. Otherwise, guidance hint at some low confidence PoPs early next week as an upper level trough translates into the northern US. With that being said, the storyline remains the same with dry weather and worsening drought conditions. Daily minimum relative humidity values around 20 to 35 percent remain likely, with light winds limiting fire weather concerns for the time being. Worsening drought conditions may further amplify the Fall fire danger as we progress through October.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

As high pressure dominates the local weather pattern, VFR conditions should continue throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds around 6-10 kt will go light and variable overnight and then return from the southwest around 15z tomorrow.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.