textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-50% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon mainly west of Highway 65. No severe weather expected at this time.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday afternoons. More widespread rain chances will occur Sunday into Monday (50-90%). No severe weather expected at this time. Monitoring for limited flooding potential. - Temperature and precipitation favored to be above average for next week, but hazardous conditions are not expected. Highs in the upper 80s by next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

High pressure remains across the southeastern states with southwesterly flow in the plains and the Ozarks as noted in the latest surface plots and IR and visible satellite imagery. The strong moisture advection into the Ozarks from the Gulf will allow for development of showers and isolated storms through this afternoon into the evening.

Current visible imagery showed some agitated and towering cumulus across the western portions of the area, mainly west of Highway 65. The showers associated with the cumulus should produce up to a tenth of an inch of rain as they move to the north. Where lift can be maximized, mainly along the I-49 corridor, isolated storms and lightning will be the primary concerns with rainfall a bit heavier, possible up to a quarter inch. Some locations may remain dry thanks to the spotty nature of the showers.

The pattern will change little overnight and through Friday night though the areas of better rain chances will shift from the western Ozarks to the southeastern Ozarks, mainly south of I-44 and east of Highway 65. This will occur as a mid-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region dragging a weak front through the region. This should allow for showers and a few rumbles of thunder by the afternoon/evening. Despite the shift in rain fall area, overall rain chance decrease Friday with only 20 to 30 percent chances of rainfall. Not everyone will see rain with the system on Friday, and no widespread severe weather is expected. Friday will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

High pressure centered over the Gulf and southeastern Gulf state will remain in place through the weekend with upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS keeping southwesterly flow in plains in the southern Plains and the Ozarks. With the continued flow from the Gulf into the region WPC has all or portions of the Ozarks in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for flooding from Saturday through Tuesday morning.

The warm air and moisture advection is noted on most of the Synoptic models with good, deep moisture from the surface through 500mb and in some periods up to 250mb. This can be seen in the precipitable water values which range from 1.4 to as much as 2.0 inches. These values are at or above average for this time of year and will allow for very efficient rainfall where rain occurs.

Upper level low pressure will move across the southwestern states and into the southern plains Saturday and lift towards the Ozarks on Sunday. This low is essentially stuck under a developing upper level ridge which will provide for slow movement until the low is picked up by the upper level flow around an upper level trough that will remain across the northwestern CONUS into early next week. This low will provide the limited lift needed to produce showers and isolated storms through the weekend and into early next week. Overall rain chances from Saturday through Tuesday range from 20 to 80% with the best period from Sunday through Monday morning. for the most part most locations will see a tenth of an inch or less. There does remain the potential, from Sunday into Monday, of seeing an inch or more with probabilities from 15 to 35%. Other than what appears to be the wetter period from Sunday into Monday, Saturday and Tuesday will have rain chances as well but may see more scattered rainfall with less coverage.

The multiple days of rainfall, will remain something we will continue to monitor as the rains over the past week and in to the end of May have produce wet antecedent conditions with soil moisture and surface water for many areas primed as a result.

The pattern does change into the middle and end of next week as the upper ridge continues to build over the Plains and a strengthening upper low digs into the southwestern CONUS. The low that will bring showers this weekend will slowly move up and over the ridge and linger in the Great Lakes region into the end of next week as well. This pattern should allow for a dry period from Wednesday into Friday of next week.

This pattern change will also allow for a warming trend through this weekend into the end of next week. Highs will trend from the lower to middle 80s this weekend to the upper 80s to lower 90s by the end of next week.

The warm and wet trend may continue into the middle of June as well based on the latest guidance from the Climate Prediction Center. The forecasts from June 9th through the 17th leans the chances towards seeing warmer (40-50%) and wetter (30-40%) than average conditions. There are some signals from dynamical models favoring an amplified ridge over the west and east coasts that may allow for a period of 500mb weakness in the pattern and a long wave trough over the Midwest, for the second half of June. What does this mean? This pattern may signal a period of slightly cooler and wetter than average conditions for the second half of the month of June which is supported from some global circulation models, ENSO indicies and other teleconnections.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Ceilings will remain VFR for tonight but start to drop by Friday morning as low clouds move in from the activity that is currently over KCMO. Ceilings are expected to drop into MVFR around 12-15z and then slowly begin to dissipate through the afternoon and return to VFR. There's a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon mainly for areas east of Highway 65. Right now, only have a PROB30 for BBG and no severe weather is expected. Winds will be south-southwesterly with gusts up to 20 knots through tonight and tomorrow.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.