textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog will be possible this morning and again tonight. Localized visibility reductions as low as 1 mile may occur.

- 20-40% chances of isolated to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 44 this afternoon, and again Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds to 55 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most stay dry.

- Rain chances continue daily through the end of the week, increasing to 40-60% Thursday into Friday.

- Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, returning into the 90s midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: A positively-tilted trough aloft stretches from the Great Lakes through northern Texas, with ridging building to the west of the synoptic trough. The upper-level vort max is clearly evident on water vapor satellite imagery over Joplin as of 2:00AM this morning. A weak stationary front is located across Missouri spreading from Kansas City to Cape Girardeau. Synoptic conditions today will be very similar to yesterday, and are not anticipated to change much today and tonight.

Fog This Morning and Tonight: With the stationary front in the area, portions of central Missouri may see fog early this morning. Overnight trends suggest that fog will not be dense (<1/4 mi) in most areas, likely due to outflow boundaries that are lingering from Sunday evening's convection keeping the atmosphere a little more turbulent despite many weather stations reporting near 100% saturation. HREF probability of less than 1 mile visibility peaks at 35-50% in the areas just north of the plateau of the eastern Ozarks around 5-6am this morning, so visibility reductions will be possible even if fog is not technically "dense". River valleys and low-lying areas will also be susceptible to more dense fog than surrounding areas, including into . Without a notable change in the synoptic pattern by tonight, additional patchy fog will be possible areawide again tonight, with the area that will likely see the most dense fog further south towards the Arkansas/Missouri border.

Isolated Showers and Storms Possible Again Today: 20-40% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms again today along and south of I-44, peaking in the afternoon/evening. The vort max over the area provides embedded pockets of lift for additional thunderstorm development, most likely along whatever's left of the outflow boundaries from yesterday evening's storms. Shear remains too weak to support organized severe weather potential, but gusty winds to 55 mph and brief heavy downpours will be possible anywhere that sees storms. Many areas will remain dry.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday: Rinse and repeat of Sunday and Monday's conditions. Isolated pop-up shower and thunderstorm chances are 20-40% along and south of I-44 each afternoon, with the upper-level low/vort max being slow to move out of the region. Most areas (especially west of Highway 65) will stay dry both days, but anywhere that does see storms will again be at risk of gusty winds up to 55 mph, heavy downpours, and lightning.

Temperatures Slowly Climb Back Into 90s: Ensembles are in good agreement that temperatures will stay in the mid- to upper 80s early this week under northerly flow. As the upper-level low slowly slides further and further east as the week progresses, low-level high pressure will build over the Midwest and we will shift to southerly flow here in the Ozarks. Southerly flow will bring a gradual warming trend from Wednesday through the end of the week, returning our temperatures to the 90s and our heat indices to near 100 degrees.

Pattern Shift Midweek: Once the upper low exits the area, the "rinse and repeat" pattern should break, with increasing temperatures under more zonal flow. Global ensembles all suggest some amount of increased precip chances Thursday-Sunday as the ridge gets broken down by a deep trough pushing into the West Coast, with the potential for multiple shortwaves to develop across the region. While the larger synoptic features are fairly well- resolved by the global models, the more subtle mesoscale features that will be the primary dictating factors of precip chances across our area are not as well-resolved. Therefore, confidence in overall details regarding the late week system(s) is low despite the high confidence that the pattern will switch up.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Transient high clouds across the area today with the potential for some low-level cumulus development this afternoon, with light northeasterly winds. Patchy fog has developed early this morning across portions of the area, but will be quick to dissipate after sunrise. Low chance for isolated to scattered pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon, especially from 20-01Z, but chances remain below 30% at KJLN and KSGF terminals.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.