textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder weather arrives this weekend. Overnight wind chills are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero Saturday night.

- Windy conditions will return on Friday with northwest gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist over the next seven days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 143 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Satellite imagery showed clear skies across the area during the early morning hours as surface high pressure begins to build over the region. Observations show a much chillier start to the day, with 1:30AM temperatures ranging in the low to mid 20s. These temperatures are expected to drop down several more degrees over the next few hours, with lows in the teens to low 20s and wind chills dropping into the single digits for some locations.

The northwesterly flow aloft will keep things quiet and dry for today. Models are showing subtle upper level energy pushing southeast out of Canada later this evening/tonight, however any precipitation should stay north/northeast of our forecast area where the better forcing exists. With the cooler airmass remaining in place, afternoon highs are only expected to top out in the upper 30s (eastern Ozarks) to mid/upper 40s, increasing further west of Highway 65.

Subtle mid-level height rises will lead to slightly "warmer" overnight lows tonight, with temperatures remaining in the upper 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 143 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

An upper level shortwave will begin to dive southeast out of the Northern Plains on Friday, resulting in a tightened pressure gradient and a 30-40kt low level jet overhead. This will lead to gusty winds once again on Friday. Bufkit forecast soundings depict good mixing potential which could lead to better momentum transfer at the surface. Current guidance suggests wind gusts up to 35mph, however as the previous forecast discussion mentioned, we can't rule out gusts up to 40mph along the Plateau. With the stronger wind gusts and the drier air in place, Elevated Fire Danger is expected once again Friday afternoon.

The associated surface cold front that pushes south with the upper level system will usher in much colder air for the weekend. Highs will only top out in the mid/upper 20s (north of Highway 60s) to mid 30s (closer to the MO/AR border) on Saturday, and the 30s to low 40s for Sunday. With the breezy northwesterly winds, overnight temperatures are expected to dip into the single digits Saturday night, with wind chills near and below zero. This will be the coldest night in the forecast period, however wind chills in the single digits are expected through at least Monday night.

We'll have to keep an eye on light snow chances Friday night behind the cold front as there's potential for enough lift/moisture to squeeze out some flurries. Confidence in this occurring remains low (<20%), with no impacts expected if it can occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as surface high pressure continues to build into the region. Winds are expected to gradually shift, becoming southwesterly by this afternoon. KJLN could see a slight increase in winds after 18Z, however speeds should remain below 12kts. LLWS will be possible at all terminals, generally beginning between 01Z-03Z and lasting through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.