textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning across portions of southeast KS, southwest MO, and into central MO through Wednesday. Daily heat index values around 105. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory is in effect for daily heat index values around 100 to 104.

- Mostly dry conditions are now expected through the end of the week and weekend.

- Confidence is increasing in the extension of heat headlines on Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show an elongated upper level high pressure axis across the southern US. Low and mid level temps remain warm over the area however an axis of much warmer 850mb temps remains west of the area across Oklahoma and Kansas. The 850mb low level jet remained slightly farther west than last night with clear skies over the area. Temps remain quite mild overnight with many areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s under steady south winds.

Hot and Dry Conditions Today: Similar conditions to yesterday are expected with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. Temps may end up 1-2 degrees higher than yesterday, especially in areas that are beginning to dry out. Latest NBM and high res guidance shows highs in the upper 90s to around 100 west of Springfield with middle/upper 90s expected elsewhere. Dewpoints have been slowly dropping 1-2 degrees each day in the afternoons and expect that trend to continue today. With air temps increasing a few degrees, heat indicies around 100 are expected in the advisory area with a few 105 degree readings across the warning area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Prolonged Heat Continues: Latest ensembles are trending towards the mid level high strengthening just south of the area from mid week into the weekend. This will allow for more of a westerly component at 850mb which will allow for even higher 850mb temps to advect in (24-26C). This would allow for daily highs in the middle/upper 90s east of Springfield, to around 100 west of Springfield and would last all the way into the weekend. The NBM interquartile spreads are around 2-3 degrees which allows for higher confidence in these high temps.

The lack of rainfall and these high temps will continue to allow for vegetation to dry out. This will not only support these high temps, but will also begin to allow for dewpoints to perhaps remain at or below 70 during the day (versus low 70s we have seen recently). While the air temps will increase, lower dews may allow for heat indicies to remain generally at or below 105 in most areas. Indicies around 100 still look likely all the way into the weekend. Therefore extension of heat headlines look likely for Thursday onward. We will need to reassess the afternoon mixing potential today and Wednesday for exact headline changes/extensions for future updates. Little relief is expected at night with lows in the 70s to around 80. Looking at the latest NWS Heat Risk tool (which takes into account how unusually above normal temps are, time of year and duration of unusual heat), most of the area looks to remain in the major to extreme category. While heat indicies themselves may not be that extreme, the duration of the heat (looking to make a run at 7+ days in some areas) will put a strain on heat sensitive groups.

Decreasing Precip Chances: Warmer air aloft will make precip chances hard to come by into the weekend. Precip chances now have dropped below 20 percent with most places remaining dry. The one area that will need to monitor for precip chances will be the corridor from Morgan county to Phelps county. This area will be just close enough where an isolated shower or storm could drop in. Confidence in this occuring is low. The latest CPC outlook suggests an increasing potential for Rapid Onset Drought across southwest Missouri going into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with passing mid level clouds at times. Winds will increase this morning and afternoon out of the south southwest with gusts around 20kts. Low level wind shear is expected at the sites overnight into Wednesday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058- 066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083- 090>092-095>098-102>106.