textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe storms today through Monday. Hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the primary hazards each day.

- Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in the 90s.

- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain chances returning next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Upper-level shortwave energy is slowly lifting through the Intermountain West this afternoon with an associated surface low over the High Plains. The attendant warm front is extending southeast into eastern Kansas and the four corners region. On radar, a cluster of very slow-moving thunderstorms has developed across eastern Kansas. On satellite, plenty of clearing has occurred behind the showers that moved through the area this morning.

Marginal Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today through Monday:

The decreasing cloud cover will weaken surface inhibition and increase instability across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this afternoon. While convergence along the aforementioned warm front will not be particularly strong, isentropic upglide along the boundary may force isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in a warm and moist airmass. A few of these storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing hail up to quarters and gusts up to 60 mph.

Just 24 hours ago, models were more bullish in bringing the decaying remnants of an MCS into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight tonight. While this potential cannot be completely ruled out as model guidance often struggles to handle these kinds of setups, confidence in this scenario panning out has decreased with the better forcing to the north of the CWA.

The warm, moist, and unstable airmass will remain in place on Sunday. While synoptic scale forcing will be weak, instability will be aplenty, and a few updrafts could get tall enough in the afternoon and evening to produce hail to quarters and 60 mph wind gusts.

Upper-level ridging will build across the Plains on Monday. A subtle ridge-runner may provide lift for additional showers and thunderstorms once again, particularly across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. A juiced thermo profile will support the risk for isolated strong to severe storms. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms exists each day through Monday.

To that end, warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low 70s will make it feel quite muggy. Heat index values are forecast to be in the 90s areawide.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Ensembles show the upper-level ridge persisting into mid- week and gradually shifting east. This setup will keep the region seasonably warm and mostly dry through the work week.

Cluster analysis suggests the synoptic pattern breaks down late week into the weekend, which will open the door to better precipitation chances Friday into Saturday. Significant divergence in ensemble solutions is apparent at this time, limiting PoPs and overall forecast confidence.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Not a clear cut forecast. Most likely outcome is predominantly VFR conditions through the period. The two factors that would impact prevailing VFR are 1) isolated to scattered showers/storms, and 2) decreased visibility from BR/low stratus, mostly at KBBG but maybe also KSGF.

Storms: isolated to scattered development/redevelopment through the AM hours. Low confidence in impacts to TAF sites due to limited coverage of storms. MVFR visibility possible within any storms due to heavy rainfall. Very low (<20%) chance of additional scattered showers and storms during the afternoon Sunday.

Visibility/BR: the low levels are very saturated, and similar to last night, visibility reductions due to mist/patchy fog will be possible. Far lower confidence in magnitude of reductions, with IFR conditions unlikely to be reached (<15% chance) due to stronger winds, but MVFR expected for at least a few hours at KBBG due to terrain.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.