textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for record high temperatures today and tomorrow. Highs 20 to 30 degrees above average for late March.

- Elevated to locally Significant fire danger on Thursday with hot, dry, and windy conditions.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night through Friday morning. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms across central Missouri, but confidence remains limited.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined upper-level ridge expanding across much of the western and central CONUS early this morning. At the surface, a weak lee low was located across northeast Colorado with a northwest- to- southeast oriented stationary front draped across the High Plains. The 00Z SGF sounding revealed a quite-dry boundary layer, with resultant relative humidities struggling to recover east of Highway 65. A few isolated observations have sporadically reported reduced visibilities due to wildfire smoke; otherwise, quiet weather is ongoing across the region.

Hot, Dry, and a bit Windy Today and Tomorrow:

As the aforementioned lee low shifts east this morning, the associated frontal boundary will lift through the Plains and usher in a warmer and slightly moister airmass. To the former, deterministic guidance depicts 850 mb temperatures in the 16 to 19 deg C range west of the Highway 65 corridor, with values in the 14 to 16 deg C range to the east. These 850 mb temperatures support surface highs of 80 to 87 deg F. To the latter, moisture content will be higher behind the boundary, and southwesterly winds will advect Gulf moisture northeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. There could be some slight elevation-driven variation in the degree of moisture return with higher dew points in the lower terrain, but dew points in the 50s will be common. These higher dew points will be somewhat offset by the warmer temperatures, however, and minimum RHs will be in the 35 to 45% range. This moisture will limit the fire danger overall today, but there could be some locally Elevated conditions out there where RHs approach 35% and gusts exceed 20 mph.

Thursday, in a nutshell, will essentially be Wednesday+. That is, temperatures will be a bit warmer, RHs will be a bit lower, and winds will be a bit breezier. NBM temperature spreads remain quite small, indicating high confidence in temperatures reaching the upper 80s and low 90s. For reference, the climatological average highs range from 59 to 63 degrees. While daily records will be challenged on Wednesday, we will likely see a clean sweep of all four climate sites on Thursday. See the Climate section below for more details. Furthermore, while mixing heights will not be anomalously high on Thursday, point forecast soundings suggest there will be plenty of dry air aloft eager to mix down to the surface and lower afternoon RHs. Current NBM output depicts minimum RH values in the 30 to 40% range, though REFS probabilities of RH <30% are generally between 30 to 60%, so we have nudged the forecast down slightly with some localized RHs of 25% possible. Indeed, the Hot-Dry-Windy Index is forecast to exceed the 90th--and possibly 95th--percentile of climatology. Further adjustments to forecast RH values may be necessary in the future.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Showers and Storms Thursday Night into Friday:

Global models show an upper-level shortwave transiting the northern periphery of the aforementioned ridge and approaching the Great Lakes region by Thursday evening, dragging a prominent surface cold front with it. A stout capping inversion will keep the forecast area dry through Thursday afternoon, though increasing moisture convergence along the front and steep mid- level lapse rates will allow for shower and thunderstorm development across central Missouri and the Ohio Valley by the evening. This activity will then shift southeast along the boundary overnight into Friday morning. There are a number of factors that limit our confidence in storm coverage, longevity, and intensity in the Missouri Ozarks, however. Namely, the strength of the cap, the amount of moisture return, and the timing/overlap of a conducive parameter space are all in question. Should strong to severe storms indeed occur in the forecast area, large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with their latest update though has notably pulled it eastward from the previous outlook. Details will (hopefully) become clearer over the next 12 to 24 hours as we get into range of the CAMs.

While there are some slight differences in timing of the frontal passage among the guidance, the front and its associated precipitation look to clear the forecast area Friday afternoon. Given a southwest-to-northeast frontal orientation but a southeastward frontal motion, storms will likely not linger over any one location for too long, which will limit precipitation amounts overall. The highest amounts are forecast across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where there is higher confidence in storm coverage.

Latest 24-hr NBM Precipitation Total Probabilities:

>0.10 inch: 40-80% >0.25 inch: 25-65% >0.50 inch: 10-40%

Locally higher amounts will be possible under any stronger thunderstorms, but flash flooding is not a concern overall.

Another Warmup through the Weekend:

Temperatures will take a significant tumble behind the front on Friday. Forecast highs in the upper 50s to low 60s will be nearly 30 degrees cooler than the day prior. The tightened pressure gradient behind the front will also result in breezy northeasterly winds.

These cooler temperatures will be short-lived, however, as ensembles show strong agreement in building the ridge back to the east this weekend into early next week. To that end, NBM temperature percentile data show medium to high confidence in this warming trend as forecast temperatures once again climb into the 80s by Monday.

Maybe More Active Pattern Next Week:

Extended GEFS and ECMWF products suggest the Missouri Ozarks may sit under a southwest flow pattern by the middle of next week, which would open the door for more rain chances and potentially a more active pattern. Indeed, the Climate Prediction Center's 8 to 14 Day Outlooks favor chances for above-average temperatures and precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period as scattered high cirrus clears out of the area tonight. A few sporadic surface observations have occasionally shown reduced visibilities due to wildfire smoke, but confidence in any impacts to the TAF sites is too low to include in the current TAFs. Wind gusts will increase after 15Z as winds shift to the southwest. Gusts of 20 to 25 kt will be common across southwest Missouri, but an occasional gust closer to 30 kt will also be possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KSGF: 83/1910 KJLN: 88/1910 KVIH: 80/1959 KUNO: 79/2012

March 26: KSGF: 82/2020 KJLN: 86/1910 KVIH: 83/2020 KUNO: 86/2020

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.