textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures through early next week.

- Dry weather will persist through at least Monday afternoon.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation in the Feb 13th to 19th period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 110 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Synoptic analysis shows a prominent upper level ridging pattern over the western CONUS/Plains, placing the area in northwesterly flow aloft. As a result, dry conditions accompany the weak cold front that continues to push south through the Ozarks this morning/early afternoon, shifting surface winds out of the north/northwest. Bufkit forecast soundings continue to indicate wind gusts up to 20-30mph through this afternoon as mixing occurs, with some locations already observing 30+mph gusts during the late morning hours.

The above-normal temperatures continue today, with observed temperatures as of 1PM in the mid 50s to low 60s. By this evening, winds will begin to diminish as we lose mixing. A cooler air mass will allow for overnight temperatures to drop into the 20s, with some locations along the MO/AR border remaining at 30.

With the cooler airmass continuing to keep temperatures seasonal on Saturday, expect highs in the mid to upper 40s (east of Hwy 65) and ranging in the 50s (west of Hwy 65).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

As we continue through the weekend however, the aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to build eastward towards the region. Warm air will advect into the area behind a warm front as mid-level heights rise, with 850mb temps climbing into the 10-12C range. To put this into a climatological perspective as the previous discussion mentioned, SPC upper level climatology places these values above the 90th percentile. With the NBM interquartile spread only showcasing a 3-5 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, there's fairly high confidence in temperatures on Sunday ranging in the 60s and even reaching the upper 60s/low 70s on Monday.

There continues to be a signal for rain chances to return to the area on Tuesday as ensembles show an upper level shortwave pushing east from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. A surface cold front is progged to push through the area on Tuesday, which would be the source of the precipitation chances. Right now, any precipitation looks to remain somewhat light, so we're not expecting a wash-out by any means. However some timing differences still exist, so we'll continue to keep an eye on how things progress as we head into next week.

With the additional cloud cover from this system, there remains a question as to how warm we'll get on Tuesday. The NBM deterministic has the majority of the forecast area reaching the upper 60s and even the low 70s in some locations over far southwest Missouri. However with the interquartile spread showcasing a larger difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, there's a lot less confidence in the temperature forecast for that day.

That being said, cooler air will filter into the area towards the end of next week, with highs returning into the 50s. The Climate Prediction Center does highlight a 68% chance of above normal temperatures during the 8-14 Day period (February 13-19), so the mild to warm temperatures may be here to stay for a little while longer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. Some northerly wind gusts have been observed during the morning hours, with occasional gusts up to 25kts possible at all TAFs sites through 00Z. Light and variable winds will then develop after 00Z and persist overnight, with winds shifting out of the southeast by the end of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.