textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area through this evening. Heat index values around 100 to 110 will occur.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk this afternoon/evening and into tonight for portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Synoptic analysis shows the upper level high to our south, with the ridging pattern beginning to flatten out, leading to west- northwesterly flow aloft. As a result, embedded upper level energy is progged to push through the region throughout today, with an associated surface cold front moving southeast through the forecast area this afternoon/evening and into tonight. Taking a look at current radar as of 2AM, some scattered convection has been ongoing over portions of northern KS into central MO during the early morning hours. Most of this activity has stayed north of the CWA so far, however did introduce some pops (15%) for areas north of Highway 54, as they could see some isolated showers/storms this morning. Any convection that does make its way this far south this morning is expected to remain below severe limits.

Today will be another hot and toasty day, although some locations will see highs several degrees lower than previous days as the cold front makes its way south this afternoon. Areas north of Highway 60 are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s, with areas along and south of Hwy 60 reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. With heat index values once again ranging between 100-110 degrees, the Extreme Heat Warning will be allowed to continue through the remainder of today before expiring this evening.

The aforementioned cold front that will push through the area this afternoon/evening and into tonight will spark isolated to scattered showers and storms. Guidance suggests ample instability, with MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear of 20-25kts, which would be supportive of more pulse-like thunderstorms capable of producing isolated 60mph wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight areas east of I-49 in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to account for this potential. Latest High-res guidance suggests the better severe potential beginning after 4pm, with isolated chances persisting until a little after midnight. Some isolated showers and storms may linger through the remainder of the overnight hours, however we're not expecting these to be strong.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Surface winds behind the frontal passage will become northerly on Monday, with northwesterly flow aloft ushering in cooler temperatures and a brief relief from the heat. Afternoon highs will range in the 80s for a majority of the forecast area, with some locations closer to the MO/AR border and over far southeast KS reaching the low 90s. There exists some isolated chances (20-40%) for convection Monday afternoon over the far southern portion of MO and into AR as some upper level energy pushes through, which could limit the temperatures even further. Any activity that does enter the CWA should remain sub-severe.

Southerly flow returns on Tuesday, bringing warming temperatures back to the area. Highs will range in the low to mid 90s, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s towards far southeast KS/southwest MO, with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s. Wednesday will likely be a few degrees warmer, however large spreads between the NBMs 25th and 75th percentiles leads to lowered confidence in exact temperatures.

An upper level shortwave trough is progged to make its way through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with an associated surface cold front passing through. This will bring additional chances (30-50%) for showers/storms. There's still much uncertainty as we look ahead towards the end of the week, as any small change will affect temperatures and precipitation chances. The current forecast temperatures show highs in the mid 80s northeast to the mid 90s southwest to finish out the week, however this could change as models get a better handle on future systems.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through much of the TAF period. Southwesterly surface winds will shift to the north during the afternoon as a cold front pushes through the area. This will spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after ~20Z, which may temporarily lower ceilings and visibilities with any of the stronger storms that push near the terminals. Confidence in coverage/these affecting the terminals remains low at this point, so just included this potential in a PROB30 group.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.