textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect mainly east of the I-49 corridor through 9 AM. Visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than a half-mile. May persist longer along/south of Highway 60.

- Scattered drizzle and/or light rain today.

- Additional high rain chances (60-90%+) this evening through tonight. Highest rainfall amounts across south central Missouri. Could see some low water crossings overtopped, but no other flooding expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Low level moisture is not high enough for widespread drizzle, but could see some periods of drizzle across portions of the area into the day today. Fog, including dense fog, will be the main story this morning, especially along and south of Highway 60. RAP/HRRR guidance suggests <1/2 mile visibilities in the favored areas through mid day today, so trends will have to be watched for possible extension of the Dense Fog Advisory. Areas along and north of I-44 may not see as low of visibilities as previously expected, but will keep the Dense Fog Advisory for those locations as a precaution.

Have reduced high temps today closer to the lower end of ensemble spread, which results in highs in the low to mid 50s. Similar for Friday. Both days will see persistent, thick cloud cover and precip chances. Over the last couple of days, observations were generally on the very low end of ensemble spread, so trended less than the 5th percentile of NBM guidance.

The next system will move through tonight, which will bring widespread rain to areas generally along and south of I-44, as well as central Missouri. The heavier rainfall threat has shifted southeast. HREF PMM values are less than an inch. Still, could see some elevated river levels, which should not cause flooding aside from overtopping some of the more susceptible low water crossings in south-central Missouri. For areas north of I-44, light rain and/or drizzle is forecast with this system.

There is a 15-30% chance of showers Friday afternoon and evening as a mid-level shortwave and surface trough move through.

Fog will be possible across the entire area tonight, with chances diminishing on Friday. Best potential for dense fog would be along/south of Highway 60 again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

May see warmer temperatures Saturday and Sunday, depending on cloud cover. Looking for highs in the mid to upper 50s Saturday with some clearing in the afternoon, but models are also in fair disagreement in cloud cover and precip potential due to differences in the strength of a shortwave moving through the region. For now, have 15-30% PoPs Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly south of I-44.

Sunday looks dry, partly cloudy, and warmer with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Models continue to depict a stronger wave moving through around Monday night, which will usher in colder air for the middle of next week and may bring some rain Monday night into early Tuesday (20-40 PoPs, favoring the NE CWA). Look for highs around 60 Monday, then in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop back to more typical temperatures in the 20s starting Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1039 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

IFR and LIFR ceilings will continue into Thursday night as low- level moisture remains abundant. Pilots should expect low ceilings, fog, and areas of drizzle. Locally dense fog will continue into Thursday morning, especially in the vicinity of Branson.

While visibilities and ceilings are expected to slightly improve Thursday afternoon, an approaching low pressure system will bring lowering ceilings, visibilities, and increasing rain showers to the region Thursday night.

Surface winds will remain light out of the southeast through Thursday but will increase Thursday evening ahead of that low pressure.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ055>058- 067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.