textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall coverage and amounts continue to decrease through this morning, with precipitation exiting the area by this afternoon.

- Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will then occur this weekend through the majority of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The upper level system that we've been tracking over the past few days has weakened substantially, with the previous 500mb closed low now an open shortwave trough extending from western TX up into northern MO/northern IL. Scattered showers have been ongoing overnight, primarily in areas along/southeast of I-44. As of 2AM, the 3-hour observed precipitation totals showed a meager few hundredths of an inch, with some locations between 0.1-0.2". No lightning has been observed, as instability remains weak, with drizzle being reported behind the light precip. The surface cold front has been trekking southeast through the area overnight, and is currently extending across southern MO.

As the early morning progresses, the cold front will continue to sag southeast, and is progged to clear the forecast area around sunrise. Some lingering drizzle/light rain will continue to end from northwest to southeast through this morning before fully exiting the CWA by late afternoon. Areas along/southeast of I-44 could see additional rainfall amounts up to 0.4-0.75", with amounts generally remaining below 0.1" north of the I-44 corridor.

Behind the frontal passage, a cooler and drier airmass will begin to filter into the region, keeping afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s today.

Tonight will mark the beginning of an extended dry period, as skies begin to clear from north to south. Expect overnight lows to range in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Heading into the beginning of the weekend, upper level High pressure will build over the desert southwest, with northwesterly flow developing aloft. Dry conditions and close to normal temperatures in the 70s and low 80s are expected through midweek before a warm-up occurs, causing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Aviation conditions are gradually deteriorating as a cold front sags into the area. Observations show an IFR (700-1000 ft) cloud deck just north of JLN and SGF. These should reach SGF and JLN by 06-08Z. BBG is already experiencing LIFR cigs. Once these cigs take hold, they should be quite persistent for much of the TAF period. There is uncertainty in how long IFR cigs hang on, though latest guidance and rules of thumb suggest clearing may not occur until the end of the TAF period. Trends will be monitored for the 12Z TAFs.

During this period, rain and/or drizzle is possible through 12-15Z. The main period to watch is between 06-13Z at SGF and BBG where some heavier rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may occur, bringing visibilities down to 2-5 miles at times.

Winds are expected to stay north-northeasterly as the front continues to push south. For the most part, winds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times, especially between 08-23Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.