textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- After single digit wind chills this morning, temperatures quickly rebound to near to slightly above average through Thursday. Some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible today as moisture is slower to return.

- 15-30% chance of light rain or drizzle southeast of I-44 late tonight. A lower (<15%) chance exists for some meager icing on elevated surfaces in the eastern Ozarks.

- Upcoming weekend precipitation chances (40-70%). There is increasing confidence in seeing snow, but uncertainty remains in the track of the system and potential snow amounts.

- Higher confidence in well below normal temperatures. Single digit lows with wind chills below zero will be likely each morning this weekend (60-80% chance).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the CONUS-wide bowling ball trough has shifted east since 24 hours ago, raising geopotential heights aloft across the region. Consequentially, the surface high pressure system has sagged southeast of the area into the lower Mississippi River region. As such, southwesterly winds have taken hold of the region, which has slowly warmed temperatures from the upper single digits this evening, to the lower to middle teens.

Single digit wind chills before 10 AM this morning:

In tandem with gradual warming, winds will also begin increasing this morning. As a result, it will be another morning to warm up your car before leaving for the commute. Single digit winds chills will still impact the area until 10 AM when solar insolation warms temperatures above 20 degrees.

Rebound to slightly above average temperatures through Thursday:

With winds increasing to 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph, warm air advection will be strong today, bringing in highs in the 40s. Temperatures will be near 50 F in extreme southwest Missouri with highs near 40 out towards the eastern Ozarks. Lows will also be much more comfortable than as of late, with readings in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Another low-amplitude shortwave is then progged to dive through the longwave trough, but the strongest vorticity advection will stay north of the area. Nevertheless, a trailing "cool" front will move through the region late Wednesday. Before this, highs will once again warm into the mid-40s to lower 50s. Following the front, though, low temperatures will marginally cool into the lower to middle 20s.

Since upper-level energy will stay north of the area, temperatures will still be near average Thursday, with expected highs in the 40s. Colder air will start filtering in at night, though, as strong left entrance region jet dynamics starts to pull an Arctic high southward, Lows Thursday night then look to be in the middle teens to middle 20s, with the colder temperatures to the north.

Localized elevated fire weather conditions possible today:

As the air warms, moisture will lag behind. Afternoon RH values are forecast to be within the 20 to 35% range, with the driest air (20-25%) within the eastern Ozarks. With the faster winds west of Highway 65, the driest air and strongest winds will then be slightly displaced, limiting greater fire weather concerns. That said, there is a 10-20% chance of RHs less than 25% west of Highway 65, bringing localized elevated fire weather concerns to that area. Simultaneously, there is a 30-50% chance for winds between 15-20 mph within the eastern Ozarks, which also may bring some localized elevated fire weather concerns.

15-30% chance of light rain/drizzle southeast of I-44 tonight:

Moisture will finally start advecting in ahead of the aforementioned "cool" front later tonight. As the front moves through the area, it will provide some decent lift across the moisture zone. HREF soundings reveal the moisture layer being rather shallow with dry air aloft, which would point to drizzle or light rain potential late tonight as the front moves through. However, there are still some questions in how much moisture can return ahead of the front before it moves out of the area. NAM/ARW soundings are more moist, while the HRRR/RAP/RRFS are drier. Depending on which scenario pans out will determine if drizzle occurs southeast of I-44. Therefore, only 15-30% chances exist right now.

There is a low chance that if drizzle/light rain occurs, that freezing liquid could occur. Lows in the eastern Ozarks are expected to drop into the middle 20s. However, advection ahead of the front should start warming temperatures before sunrise. Therefore, it will depend on how quickly the area warms and moistens up. Trends will continue to be monitored, but for now, little to no impacts are expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

In-depth discussion on 40-70% snow chances this weekend:

Trends over the past 24 hours have increased confidence in IF we see precipitation this weekend, it will be in the form of snow. Only 3 members of the 100 member grand ensemble output a different precipitation type. As discussed in past AFDs (if you would like to see a lot more details on the scenarios, see the 3 AM AFD from 1/19), this is an odd case to grapple with as the general synoptic pattern is more in line with the Ozark's Ice Storm Climatology rather than Heavy Snow. This makes sense as models do output a ton of ice for the southern Plains and Gulf States. The main difference is that the Arctic surface high across the northern states is forecast to be anomalously strong (42% of GEFS and 84% of ENS members forecast the highest surface high pressure of any 30-year reforecast for late January). Add in general experience that intense Arctic air masses generally move in quicker than forecast, which will push your surface temperature gradient southward, generating a more southward jet streak. 24 hours ago, discussion was had about how AI models were against the grain in showing a more northern track. Latest trends now show a pretty big push southward from the AI models, coming in line with dynamical models as they come to accept that an "extreme" Arctic high is becoming more likely. All that is fancy-speak for saying, the ice will likely be south of our area, leaving snow as the expected precipitation type.

The main uncertainties now are with the exact track of the system and the subsequent amounts of snow, if any at all. Despite AI models starting to fall in line with dynamic models, the two *main* scenarios are still based on how an EPac closed low phases with the Arctic wave coming down from the northwest. As per usual, models have a difficult time resolving these closed lows. So even wiggles in ensemble mean tracks will occur up until the event. Past few runs were trending toward the scenario where there's a weaker phasing of the closed low, leading to a further south track. The latest run took a slight jog back northward in the mean track as a bit more than half of the members began favoring better phasing of the wave. This northward scenario would favor higher snow amounts in our area. The Euro is a good deterministic representation of this scenario. A further south track could lead to meager snow amounts, potentially none. The GFS is a good deterministic representation of this scenario. Neither will be the truth, but offer a visual guide to the two main scenarios.

As a showcase of the uncertainty, the 25th-75th LREF spread of snowfall accumulation ranges from 1-5 inches. The 10th-90th spread increases to 0-8 inches. With very cold air coming down, these SLRs would be loser to 15:1 than 10:1, which even further increases spread to 2-8 inches at 25th-75th, and 0-12 inches at 10th-90th. That said, the ensemble means have been wiggling (rather than just some members), which points to general difficulty in ingesting/resolving the EPac closed low. So these ranges will likely increase/decrease with subsequent runs, leading to even little skill in these ranges.

Some other scenarios in between include a much slower closed low progression, which could lead to two low pressure systems in rapid succession, prolonging the event and upping snowfall amounts (looking at you 00Z ECMWF). Other micro sources of uncertainty could come from the evolution of the Arctic high. If it's climatologically strong and impinging down south, we could see a much sharper baroclinic zone and subsequent precipitation gradient, leading to less snow for our area with areas just south seeing a lot more snow. As always, we will continue to monitor trends, but the main message for now is increasing confidence in seeing snow over the weekend, particularly Friday night into Saturday (40-70% chance of precipitation).

60-80% chance for below zero wind chills this weekend:

Regardless of the details in the storm system evolution, with a good number of members forecasting an anomalously strong Arctic high pressure system to move through the Great Lakes, it will not be difficult for below normal temperatures to sink into the region. The current deterministic forecast calls for highs in the 20s Friday and Sunday, and in the teens Saturday. 25th-75th percentile spreads range anywhere from 10 to 25 F highs Saturday and Sunday, and the Extreme Forecast Index is at 0.8-0.9 with a shift of the tail, so there is certainly potential for even lower temperatures. Additionally, deterministic lows are already in the single digits Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night with the NBM presenting a medium-high (60-80%) chance for the se single digit temperatures along with below zero wind chills. While it's still too far out to say anything of worth about exact wind speeds and subsequent apparent temperatures during the coldest timeframe, the LREF does spit out a 30-50% chance of reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria Friday night into Saturday morning (less than -5 F for our southern Missouri/Kansas border counties, and -10 F for counties north of those).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the entire TAF period. Winds will generally be south-southwesterly, increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts after 15Z. A low-level jet is then forecast to develop after 00Z, bringing some 40-45 kt LLWS to the TAF sites.

There is a low 15-30% chance for MVFR cigs to impact SGF and BBG after 09Z with moisture influx, but uncertainty in the timing of better moisture is too great to include in the TAFs at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.