textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above-average temperatures continue into Thursday.

- Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and breezy winds on Thursday.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for a few strong to severe storms on Thursday, with damaging winds the main risk.

- Temperatures will cool to more seasonable normals in the 40s for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Upper-air analysis depicts rising mid-level heights and a weakly building ridge over the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. On satellite, a well defined shortwave trough is moving through the Pacific southwest, while broken cirrus are overspreading southern Missouri. This ridge will allow the much- above-average temperatures to continue today, and the shortwave will provide our next precipitation chances by Thursday morning.

Breezy Thursday:

As the shortwave transits the Plains tomorrow morning, models show the associated surface low strengthening. This increased pressure gradient will help to increase winds across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common, though a few gusts may approach 45 mph (advisory criteria) west of Highway 65, where HREF probabilities of exceeding this value are in the 30 to 60% range. Forecast soundings do not show the mixing layer being particularly deep, though it really won't have to be to mix down higher momentum flow due to the strong 850 mb jet. Given all of this, confidence was not high enough for any headline issuance at this time, but model trends will have to be monitored over the next 12 to 18 hours.

Showers and Storms Thursday:

Hi- res guidance shows modest instability (~500 J/kg) developing ahead of the shortwave Thursday morning as the attendant warm front lifts through southern Missouri. With it, light stratiform rain will develop. Forcing is progged to be stronger along the trailing "cold" front as it pushes west to east through the area during the morning and afternoon hours. Along it, heavier showers and a few thunderstorms are likely (80 to 90% chance). Despite meager instability, strong (50 to 60 kt) deep-layer shear may allow for isolated organized storms or line segments that would pose a risk for damaging winds to 60 mph should they become surface- based. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained their Marginal (1 of 5) risk across the entire forecast area on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms end from west to east Thursday evening as the shortwave ejects to the northeast. Forecast rainfall amounts largely look to remain less than 1 inch areawide. Totals range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch north of I-44, and from a tenth to a quarter inch south of the interstate. HREF 90th percentile totals get up to 1.5 inches as a reasonable high-end scenario.

Cooler Air Thursday Night:

Cooler temperatures hold off until a second cold front pushes through the area Saturday evening and night, finally ushering in a colder airmass. Lows Thursday night are forecast to be in the 40s, but colder temperatures are coming.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

More Seasonable Temperatures this Weekend:

Global models show the longwave trough digging through the CONUS Friday into Saturday. This shift will bring colder air southward into the Missouri Ozarks. Sunday will likely be the coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. For reference, average highs for this period are in the 41 to 44 degree range.

Very Low Precipitation Chances on Saturday:

An embedded shortwave impulse is progged to dig through the Upper Midwest on Saturday, which will develop additional precipitation across the region. Ensemble clusters disagree, however, on the evolution and track of the closed low and therefore the location of the strongest forcing. Ultimately, the track of this system will determine if any precipitation can make it into the northern reaches of the forecast area, but currently chances are low (10%). If precipitation occurs Saturday afternoon or evening, temperatures will be warm enough to support all rain, but if any precip can hold off until Saturday night, then a few snowflakes could also mix in. Regardless, no impacts are expected at this time.

Mostly Dry Early Next Week:

Ensembles show consensus on developing and stalling an upper- level ridge across the western CONUS early next week. This will keep the Missouri Ozarks in a northwest flow (and generally dry) pattern through this period. NBM percentile data support a slight warm up in temperatures as well, with mean high temperatures near 50 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Broken high clouds will continue to move across southern Missouri today into Thursday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. As this system approaches the region, southerly winds will increase Thursday morning, and ceilings will drop to MVFR to IFR levels. A few scattered light showers will be possible by 12Z at the terminals, but the highest precipitation chances will be closer to 18Z. While most activity is not expected to have lightning, there is a low chance (20 to 30%) of a few rumbles of thunder, so any mention was relegated to a prob30 group. This system will also introduce a period of low- level wind shear across the region overnight with the presence of a strong low- level jet.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.