textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front will move south through the area today. Some sprinkles/light rain possible across portions of south central MO.

- Cooler but still above-average temperatures likely through the weekend.

- Rain chances return late this week. The best chances for widespread rain will be Friday night into Saturday.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures into mid to late- February.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cold front is located across northern Missouri/southern Iowa early this morning. Ahead of the front mild conditions are occurring across the area early this morning as the lower to upper 50s across much of the area, which are warmer than the normal highs for this time of year. Temperatures will only cool a few more degrees the rest of the overnight hours. The front will move south into the northern portions of the area this morning and will move south through the area by this evening. Temperatures south of the front will warm quickly, with temperatures dropping behind the front. Highs will remain from the middle 50s across the northern portions of the area where the front will move through this morning, to the lower 70s across far southern Missouri where the front moves through later this afternoon. Highs along the I-44 corridor will be in the lower to middle 60s ahead of the front around mid day. Winds will switch to the north/northwest behind the front and gusts up to 25 mph could be possible at times this afternoon into this evening.

A dry air mass is in place and moisture return ahead of the front is limited. The decent forcing will occur with the front and could lead to some sprinkles with the front and maybe a few light showers across portions of far south central Missouri this afternoon and evening. Most locations should remain dry and those that do see some rain, amounts will be light.

A slightly cooler but still above normal air mass will move into the area behind the front as highs cool into the lower to middle 30s tonight into Wednesday morning with highs in the 50s across much of the area on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

An upper level low will move east onto the west coast late this week and will then move east across the region this weekend. The ensemble model members show a weak upper level disturbance moving across the region ahead of the main trough Thursday into Friday. Some scattered showers will be possible with this disturbance, some weak MUCAPE may also develop and could lead to some isolated rumbles of thunder. This activity will not be widespread therefore not all locations will be impacted Thursday into Friday morning with this system.

Surface low pressure will develop ahead of the upper level low and both will move east across the southern plains this weekend. There remains difference between the models on the exact track and timing of this system among the members and from run to run. Models are consistent with the overall pattern with a warm front lifting north and rounds of showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder or two occurring along the front with widespread rainfall occur. The front will be oriented from west to east, and with the lows moving east could see widespread rainfall occurring from Friday night through the day of Saturday ending on Saturday. Again the models differ on the exact track of the upper level and surface lows, and therefore the front. The further north members bring the low into the area with the front moving through the entire area bringing widespread rain to the entire area. The further south solutions keep the low south with the front along the Arkansas and Missouri boarder, and there are several solutions in between . There are still good rainfall chances for the area, especially the southern half but the exact amounts will be dependent on the exact track of the low a light shift south will keep the better rainfall amounts to the south of the area with the a northern track brings the better rain to the area.

Highs will remain normal generally in the 50s each day from Thursday into Friday, though some highs in the 50s will be possible on Thursday. Early next week upper level troughing will setup over the west coast with long wave upper level ridging over the central U.S. This will setup the potential for well above normal temperatures returning early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be shifting to the north at the beginning of the forecast period as a cold front moves through southern Missouri. A few sprinkles or light showers may develop along the front this evening, though they look to stay south and east of the terminals, so no mention was made in the current TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.