textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Less than 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms in south central Missouri this afternoon. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most areas stay dry.

- Rain chances increase to 40-70% Thursday night through Saturday. Slight risk for severe storms Thursday night. Marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday through the weekend.

- Moderate Heat Risk Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

It's a clear and calm night this morning with temperatures in the low 70s. The surface low pressure system is moving east into the Ohio Valley and taking its cloud cover with it. Clear nighttime skies and mild temperatures with little to no wind will allow for the development of some patchy fog in south central Missouri during the early morning hours. Winds will slowly become southerly today as weak warm air advection returns.

As the low to the east continues to produce its diurnal convection, it is possible some of the precipitation will make it into the southeastern reaches of the CWA this afternoon. This potential is low, and PoPs remain largely 20% or less. Otherwise, we'll enjoy mostly sunny skies with fair weather Cu today, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and light southwest winds. Lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight with the return to southerly flow, in the upper 60s our east to the mid 70s in the west. Slightly stronger winds overnight should preclude any fog risk tonight into tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The breaking news of the forecast tonight is that central Missouri has been included in an upgrade to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe storms on Thursday by the SPC. As we transition into an upper level pattern characterized by zonal-ish flow with many embedded shortwaves and pockets of energy, a string of active weather begins to set up. Weakening showers and storms move in from the west early Thursday morning while a more robust system is expected to follow late Thursday night, which is responsible for the Slight risk. Short- term models and CAMs have come into better agreement on this solution over the last few runs. However, there still remains some uncertainty regarding how warm/unstable the airmass is able to become after morning precipitation moves through central Missouri. If cloud cover clears quickly and destabilization is maximized, the primary severe hazard would be damaging winds with a linear storm mode.

The warmest days of the period will be Thursday and Friday, when some areas may see a heat index of 100 degrees or more. This signal returns again early to mid next week.

Chances for thunderstorms continue for the next several days as southerly flow continues, shortwave energy traverses the high pressure to our southwest, and the ingredients come together each afternoon. Some days will see higher chances and better coverage than others; Friday and Saturday, PoPs are currently up to 60-70% in some areas while Sunday into early next week have a closer to 30-40% chance to see afternoon thunderstorms(as the high itself moves closer and suppresses convective activity). There is some risk for excessive rainfall for part or all of the area all the way through at least Sunday

Temperatures stay pretty steady after Friday, with southerly flow and precipitation working to cancel out their affects. Highs will generally land in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Current VFR conditions at 18Z consist of southwesterly 5-10 kt winds and a sparse cu field at 4-5 kft. This will continue through 00-02Z. At that time, a warm front will move through, shifting the light winds to more southerly, with the cu field dissipating with sunset.

Main aviation concern comes after 10Z. Guidance suggests a decaying thunderstorm complex could move in from the west or northwest between 10-13Z. There is a 30-50% chance of this at JLN, and a 20-40% chance of it reaching SGF and JLN. There is lingering uncertainty on if scattered remnant showers remain over the TAF sites through the remainder of the period. Have placed a PROB30 at this timeframe to capture the uncertainty.

Otherwise, winds will shift to southwesterly at 8-12 kts after 12Z with multiple layers of cloud debris from the decaying complex.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.