textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures possible today through Sunday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend.

- Low rain chances until late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 136 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A prominent longwave ridge remains over the western CONUS this morning, leaving the Missouri Ozarks on the eastern periphery of the resultant warm airmass. Upper-air analysis suggests a weak shortwave impulse is transiting the Midwest early this morning, but a lack of moisture will preclude any rain chances.

Hot, Dry, and Elevated Fire Danger through Sunday:

Anomalously warm temperatures will continue today through Sunday. In fact, models have generally trended warmer for today's high temperatures over the last 12 to 24 hours, with NBM deterministic output suggesting highs in the low 90s will be common across much of the forecast area. This warm air will remain in place until a cold front moves through the region on Sunday and ushers in cooler temperatures. However, guidance has trended slower with this frontal passage Sunday afternoon, which will allow temperatures to climb a bit longer than earlier indications. There will likely be more of a temperature gradient across the forecast area as a result, with temperatures approaching 90 degrees once again across south- central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. These temperatures will challenge daily records (see Climate section below).

Forecast soundings once again show strong agreement in very robust mixing potential this afternoon. This mixing will act to decrease dew points further in an already-dry airmass. Mean REFS output depicts minimum RHs in the mid teens across southeast Kansas and western Missouri where temperatures will be the warmest, and values in the 20 to 25% range for locations south of I-44 and east of Highway 65. Winds will be light under the high pressure, however, and generally remain less than 10 mph sustained out of the south-southwest. While these light winds will fall short of Red Flag Warning criteria, the very dry airmass will still result in Elevated fire danger and be particularly conducive to fire starts and spotting.

Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front, and warm and dry air will remain in place across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas ahead of the boundary. It is possible that there is a short window Sunday afternoon where Red Flag Warning conditions could be a concern given a slightly slower frontal passage, but confidence in the stronger winds aligning in both space and time with the lowest RHs is too low for any headline issuance. To that end, 00Z HREF joint probabilities of RH <25% and wind speed >20 mph is currently 20% or less across the forecast area. This possibility will be better assessed in future forecast packages.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 136 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Briefly Cooler before Another Warm up:

The aforementioned cold front will push temperatures closer to climatological averages Sunday night into Monday. This "cool" spell will be short lived, however, as ensembles depict broad upper-level ridging developing over the central and western U.S. mid to late week. NBM percentile data show fair to good agreement with respect to temperatures through Tuesday, but greater uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Wednesday due to differing model solutions in the magnitude of warm air advection across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. There is high confidence in a warmup throughout the week, but there is lower confidence in just how much we warm up.

Low Rain Chances until Late Week:

Rain chances will remain limited throughout much of the week under the ridge, though a few deterministic global models depict overly broad precipitation footprints associated with weak shortwave ridge riders on Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture will be limited overall, and lift looks rather unimpressive, so confidence in any precipitation actually being manifested is low at this time. The highest precipitation chances over the next seven days are Thursday night into Friday with a cold frontal passage. Extended GEFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest this may be the beginning of a larger pattern change.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR through the period with southwesterly winds gusting up to 15 knots by this afternoon. Winds turn more southerly tonight and stay elevated with low-level wind shear possible over far southwestern Missouri.

CLIMATE

Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 21: KSGF: 88/1916 KJLN: 91/1907 KVIH: 85/1904 KUNO: 79/2011

March 22: KSGF: 88/1907 KJLN: 90/1995 KVIH: 78/1904 KUNO: 85/1997

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.