textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (30-50%) at times across portions of the area from Friday night into Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early to the middle of next week but there is still uncertainty with this potential system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An upper level ridge and warmer air mass remains over the region. 850mb temperatures will be in the 12 to 14C range today which will result in highs in the lower 80s this afternoon. Warm conditions will occur again on Friday but highs will be a few degree cooler with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. These temperatures are around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late October.

A front is currently located across northern Missouri where some a few showers and storms have developed early this morning. This front will remain north of the area today. Another boundary is located across central Missouri where some clouds have develop from east central Kansas into central Missouri. A drier air mass is in place further south and lift is weaker with the southern boundary. A few showers could develop mainly along and north of Highway 54 this morning, but chances are low and if rain can develop coverage will likely be limited and light in nature. Therefore, most locations across the area should remain dry this morning.

This afternoon into the early evening hours, instability will increase to around 1000 to 1400J/kg northwest of I-44. Shear will remain on the weaker side with the upper level ridge over the area. The weak boundary will remain over the area, so a few showers and thunderstorms could be possible across the northwestern portions of the area this afternoon into early this evening. Lift will be on the weaker side and a drier air mass will be in place in the mid levels of the atmosphere which will limit the the convection potential across the area with slightly better chances to the north and west of the area where better moisture and lift will be in place.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Upper level shortwave energy will lift northeast out of the southern Plains on Friday and again on Saturday into Sunday morning. Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible at times with this system. Most of the activity should remain east of the area on Friday but could clip the far northwestern portions of the area Friday evening into Saturday morning. Much of the area may remain dry through Saturday afternoon. Satruday evening additional upper level energy will move northeast through the region. Cloud ice may be limited initially late Satruday afternoon and evening, so some periods of drizzle will be possible as lift with the trough moves into the area. As the upper level trough moves into the area cloud ice will increase and scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will develop and move northeast through portions of the area. The better chances may be along and southeast of I-44. Overall rainfall amounts will be on the light side with this system with amounts generally remaining below one quarter of an inch, and some locations may not see any measurable rainfall with this system. No severe weather will occur with the system this weekend.

The ensemble model members then show a deep upper level low moving towards and through the region during the early to middle portions of next week. The 00Z ensemble model members still have difference with the timing and track of the system but those differences are not quite as significant as previous runs. There is the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms as the low and associated cold front move through the region, and maybe a severe and flooding risk depending on the exact track and timing of the system. The 00Z model blend has 60-80% chances for showers and thunderstorms from late Monday into Tuesday night with linger rain chances on Wednesday. Those with interest should continue to monitor the latest forecast information.

Highs on Saturday will be around 70 with highs in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then look to cool to closer to the normal for the middle to end of next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Some mid level clouds are moving east across central Missouri early this morning and will mainly remain north of the TAF sites early this morning. Scattered clouds will develop this morning around 4 to 5kft into this afternoon. South to southwesterly winds will occur this morning and afternoon becoming light this evening and tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.