textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances (30-60%) this evening for areas near the MO/AR border. Severe weather is not expected.

- Marginal risk (1/5) for a few strong to severe storms for locations mainly along and north of I-44 Tuesday evening and night. Currently, the main threats are damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. - Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A surface cold front is currently moving south across far southern Missouri this afternoon. An upper-level trough is also moving east across the central Plains. Some weak elevated instability is developing mainly in Arkansas but will clip far southern Missouri this afternoon. Showers with some embedded thunder have developed across Oklahoma ahead of the system. As the upper-level trough continues to move east, most of the this activity will remain south of the area, but some scattered showers may clip far southern Missouri this afternoon. With the weak instability, a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible near to the Missouri/Arkansas border and to the south this afternoon. Any showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder that are able to develop across the area will push out of the area by this evening. Rainfall amounts will remain overall light.

A cooler air mass is pushing into the region, and highs will warm into the middle 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s.

An upper-level ridge will move over the Rocky Mountain Region on Monday. The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, but a warm air mass will start to advect into the region ahead of the region and highs warm into the middle to upper 70s Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The ridge will remain west of the area on Tuesday, but slightly warmer temperatures will continue to advect into the area as highs warm into the lower 80s Tuesday afternoon.

The region will remain in a northwest flow pattern Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper-level shortwave trough will move southeast at of the northern Plains and across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak cold front will also move through the area ahead of the trough Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Instability will start to increase across the area ahead of the system some, along with deep layer shear. Some drier air will be in place in the 500 to 250mb range, which may limit some of the instability. Forcing may also not be overly strong, so storms may be more scattered in nature overall.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible, with hail up to the size of quarters possible with a few of the strongest storms Tuesday evening and night, mainly north of I-44. If any line segments can develop, some localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph would also be possible. The activity should push south of the area by Wednesday morning and coverage will likely decrease from north to south across the area.

The air mass will not be much cooler behind the front as highs warm into the middle 70s to lower 80s Wednesday afternoon. The upper-level ridge will move east over the region late this weekend into the weekend. Highs will warm into the 80s late week, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees possible Friday into next weekend. The ensemble model members then indicate another upper-level trough could move east into the region next weekend. However, there is considerable difference between the model members on the track, timing, and structure of the system so there is a lot of uncertainty. Some rain chances could be possible at some point next weekend but will be dependent on the track and timing of the system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 527 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

An area of light rain will move across southern Missouri this evening with the highest chances along the Missouri/Arkansas border. Ceilings and vis will likely stay VFR. The rain will move east of the area after 06z. Light northeast winds will continue through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.