textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop north of I-44 late this morning into this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, hail up to the size quarters being the main risk.

- Showers and storms will develop across the central Plains tonight and will move east into extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late tonight into Wednesday morning. There could be a few strong to severe storms with hail to the size of quarters the main risk. - A cold front will move east across the area on Wednesday and showers and storms will develop along the front, mainly along and east of Highway 65 late Wednesday morning into the evening hours. Strong to severe storms will occur again with hail and isolated damaging winds gusts the main risks.

- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be possible with hail and wind the main risks.

- Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the the rounds of rain and could lead to isolated flooding where locations receive the heaviest rain from the multiple rounds of rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A warm front will continue to move north across the area this morning and will stall across the northern portions of the area by this afternoon. MUCAPE will increase late this morning and especially this afternoon and evening along the front, roughly north of I-44. Scattered storms will develop along the front and move northeast, with uncapped MUCAPE around 1200 J/kg develop. Deep layer shear will not be overall strong but could support a few strong to severe storms with hail up to the size quarters the main risk. Coverage will not be widespread, but with the front being stalled scattered storms could develop multiple times late this morning into this evening.

A warm air mass will advect into the area south of the front today across southern Missouri. Highs will range from the middle 60s north of the front will move rain and clouds to the upper 70s across southern Missouri south of the front.

An upper level trough will move east into the central Plains tonight. Surface low pressure will move northeast into Missouri. Showers and storms will develop and move northeast into Missouri tonight into Wednesday. A cold front will move east into southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri late tonight into Wednesday morning. Uncapped MUCAPE will once again develop ahead of the front tonight around 1500 J/kg late tonight into Wednesday morning. Deep layer shear will also increase ahead of the trough. Storms will once again develop to the east along the front and move into the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some strong to severe storm will again be possible mainly west of Highway 65, late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Instability will weaken during late morning as the cap increases so the storms should weaken as they move east. Instability will increase and become more surface base Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front, which will be mainly southeast of I-44. MLCAPE values of 500 to 1200 J/kg will develop with the strongest to the south. Some strong to severe storms will be possible ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, with hail to the size of quarters and isolated damaging wind gusts. South of Hwy 60 and east of Hwy 65 will see slightly better instability and coverage of severe storms may be a little better with hail to the size of ping pong balls and scattered damaging wind gusts. Low level shear will be weaker but will start to increase some in the evening hours as the low level jet increases. The front may be pushing east of the area by the time this occurs so the tornado risk is low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

The front will become orientated from west to east across southern Missouri/northern Arkansas Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Scattered showers and non severe storms will remain possible on the front. The front will lift north across the area on Thursday as another upper level low moves into the southwestern U.S. The rain will end from south to north on Thursday as the front lifts back through the area.

The upper level low will move into the Plains on Friday and across the region on Saturday. A cold front will move east across the central Plains on Friday. Storms could develop and move out ahead of the front late Friday into Friday night. As the upper level trough moves east the front will sweep across the region Friday night into Satruday and additional storms will develop along the front. There will be the potential for severe storms both on Friday then again Friday night into Saturday as the front moves through the area.

Highs in the 70s will occur on Thursday and Friday. Slightly cooler temperatures (highs in the 60s) will occur behind the front this weekend then highs in the 70s return early next week. The ensemble model members show the potential for another upper level system moving across the region during the middle of next week bringing additional shower and storm chances to the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Patchy fog has developed across portions of south central Missouri early this morning and will impact the KBBG site this morning. Any fog should dissipate by the mid morning hours. Scattered showers and a few storms will occur across central Missouri this morning into the evening hours. There is a low chance this activity impact the TAF sites, but the better potential will be north of the TAF sites. Southeast to southerly winds will occur today and will be gusty at times late this morning through the afternoon hours.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.