textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme heat continues across the area through this afternoon, with heat index values around 100 to 105. Heat headlines expire this evening, with more seasonable temperatures into mid to late week.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) through tonight, before additional chances (30-60%) overspread the area on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The highest shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) occur Thursday night through Friday. Localized heavy rainfall is possible.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures this weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today-Tonight: An upper-level ridge continues to shift westward today, as the area becomes situated on the eastern periphery. An upper-level disturbance is translating around the top of the ridge and sinking southeast through the region. This disturbance and an associated frontal passage are responsible for a band of dissipating showers across southeast KS into west central and central MO. As we progress through the afternoon, this activity may perk back up as it encounters better instability across southern MO. However, that is a low confidence scenario with many locations remaining dry through the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, hot and humid conditions remain persistent this afternoon ahead of the frontal passage. Clouds and associated precipitation will keep it bit cooler, particularly north of Highway 60. Highs reach into the lower 90s north of Highway 60, and middle to upper 90s south of Highway 60. With dewpoints into the lower and middle 70s, heat index values will peak around 100 to 105, with some locations pushing towards 110 across far southern MO. Heat headlines expire at 7pm this evening.

By later this evening into tonight, another disturbance translates through northwest flow. Guidance depicts the presence of some elevated instability, that will support an axis of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. In general, this will be focused along a northwest to southeast orientation from north central KS through northeast AR, or along and west of Highway 65. While this activity is not expected to be widespread in coverage, there may be a few instances of localized heavy rainfall. Lows remain warm in the lower to middle 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Wednesday-Friday: Slightly cooler temperatures behind the frontal passage on Wednesday, and lingering through Friday. Temperatures will range from middle/upper 80s (east) to lower 90s (west). While widespread extreme heat is not in the forecast, it is plausible some locations push heat index values around 100 in southeast KS into far southwest MO through the end of the week. However, confidence is not high enough to issue any additional heat headlines at this time. Otherwise, expect a few systems to translate through the pattern mid to late week, with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) returning Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The coverage looks to remain confined to a narrower corridor, with many locations remaining dry. Dry time will be particularly prevalent through the afternoon and evening on Wednesday and Thursday.

By Thursday night, a stronger shortwave trough ejects out of the Northern Plains. Moisture return looks healthy (PWATs 1.8-2.0 inches) ahead of this next system and associated frontal passage. Ensemble guidance trends suggest this system tracks a bit further east than previous forecasts. There is still some spread across the models and members, and thus lingering uncertainty still exists on the exact timing and location of the highest rain chances on Thursday night through Friday. For now, the highest chances (40-70%) are focused across the north and eastern portions of the area. A strong thunderstorm wind gust or two is possible within any bands/clusters, though confidence remains low. An additional hazard of focus is the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Anywhere that realizes repeated thunderstorms over the same locations in a short period of time may be subject to flash flooding. This activity lingers across the area through Friday night, before gradually shifting out of the area on Saturday.

Saturday-Monday: Much cooler on Saturday behind the frontal passage, with unseasonably cool temperatures in the forecast. The latest NBM guidance depicts highs ranging from upper 70s to lower/middle 80s. Lows dip into the lower to middle 60s. This prevails into Sunday as well, with an upper level low meandering over the region. Low isolated shower chances (10-20%) exist this weekend, though coverage would be limited. Temperatures look to gradually warm back up into early next week with a building ridge to the west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR through the period with variable winds overnight. Southeasterly winds increase to around 10 knots tomorrow morning and thunderstorms return to the area after 18z and are expected to end before 00z Thursday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.