textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended stretch of active weather begins today, with daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of next week.

- Severe weather is expected Sunday through at least Wednesday, with all severe hazards possible.

- Potential also exists for flash flooding and river flooding in areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, especially as the week progresses and rainfall accumulations add up.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Analysis:

Currently the area is situated in zonal flow aloft as we transition into a ridging pattern that's currently building over the western CONUS/Plains region. An outflow boundary was bisecting the area throughout the morning hours, which was the focus for the stratiform rain and thunder observed on radar. Further north, a quasi-stationary cold front extending through southeast Kansas/central Missouri has been slowly sagging south into the area during the morning and early afternoon, with observations showcasing it reaching our northern CWA, generally between Hwy 54 and I-44. As of 130PM, temperatures along/north of Highway 60 range in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temps closer to the MO/AR border and south- central MO in the low to mid 70s. The morning precipitation/cloud cover has been more persistent than previous thinking, which has heavily influenced temperatures across the area. Therefore, decided to significantly reduce afternoon highs, with highs ranging in the 60s for the majority of the area, reaching the low to mid 70s further south where the front will take longer to reach. That means areas that haven't reached peak heating yet can expect an increase of few more degrees over the next couple hours.

Rest of Today:

Severe Potential: As the aforementioned cold front continues pushing south through the area, more convection is expected to spark along the frontal boundary. Instability has remained fairly limited with the current activity (generally 500 J/kg or less of MUCAPE), however some CAMs suggest further destabilization around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE as the afternoon progresses. As mentioned above, the current shower/thunderstorm activity has persisted much longer than previously expected, which has diminished the severe threat for today. Therefore, most activity is expected to remain sub-severe, with only small hail, lightning, and brief gusty winds as the primary hazards of any stronger storm. There remains the chance for a very isolated strong to severe thunderstorm to bring hail up to quarters and/or 60mph damaging wind gusts, but confidence in this occurring remains limited. The best area for this to occur would be generally along/south of Highway 60 where SPC has continued to highlight a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

Heavy Rain Potential: With the activity that we've seen so far, observations show between 0.25" to 1.00" of rain has fallen for areas along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. The 12Z HREF run showcased much larger values in the 24-hour LPMM versus the 00Z run, however the thinking is that some outliers were influencing those values, leading to lower confidence in that run. Additionally, the NBM 90th percentile (which is usually the "reasonable worst case scenario") only showcased between 1-2" of rainfall through today/tonight. This wouldn't necessarily be the expectant range, as it may not be taking into account the stalled nature of the frontal boundary. Generally speaking, some pockets up to 2-3" will be possible, with the majority of the area remaining below 1.5".

This Weekend:

Saturday: The upper level ridge that's been building over our west will move over our area, bringing southwesterly flow aloft on Saturday. This will lead to the frontal boundary lifting back up through the area in the form of a warm front. Due to the synoptic lift throughout the day, chances (40-60%) of showers/thunderstorms will continue for areas generally along/north of Highway 54 before the warm front lifts north of the area in the evening, pushing the instability out of the area. No severe weather is expected with this activity, however lightning will be possible, so anyone with outdoor plans will need to monitor the weather.

Sunday: Behind the upper level ridge that builds over the area on Sunday, an upper level trough associated with an upper closed low over the Pacific Northwest will begin pushing across the western CONUS. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will bring in dewpoint into the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of the trough. There's a lot of uncertainty in the severe threat for Sunday, primarily due to the inconsistencies/discrepancies between models regarding the timing/progression of the trough. Right now, SPC has areas along/west of I-49 in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5), with the better severe chances to our south and west. However we'll just have to keep monitoring over the next couple days to see if models get a better handle on things.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The beginning of next week continues the active stretch, with daily chances of showers/thunderstorms through at least Wednesday as multiple waves of energy push through the region. The southwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect even more Gulf moisture to the area, with widespread dewpoints in the 60s.

Monday will be similar to Sunday in regards to the confidence levels in the severe potential. A surface low is progged to develop over the Plains, with a frontal boundary and dryline extending south into Texas. However models continue to disagree in the progression and evolution of these synoptic features, leading to low confidence in any storm features (i.e. timing, hazards, intensity, location, etc.). As the previous discussion mentioned, a slower-progressing system will lead to more limited severe potential, whereas a quick-moving system will increase the potential and coverage. Currently, SPC continues to highlight areas along/west of I-49 in a 15% Day 4 Outlook.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the better days for severe weather potential, however as previously mentioned, it'll really depend on how this system evolves over the next several days. Both days have a large portion of the area under a Day 5 & 6 15% SPC Outlook, as more surface based instability and sufficient wind shear increases the severe potential. We'll need to continue monitoring how the synoptic features evolve over the weekend and into next week to gain a better confidence-level in the potential scenarios.

Additionally, with the repeat rounds of heavy rainfall, we'll need to monitor any flash flooding and river flooding potential, especially as we get into midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Behind a cold front, the combination of dropping temperatures under partly cloudy skies with calm winds (<5kts) is allowing patches of ground fog to develop at the beginning of the TAF period. This fog is based in the lowest 1000ft, transient, and fairly localized.

Opted for TEMPO instead of prevailing at KJLN because confidence in persistent IFR conditions is low... anticipating that site will bounce between IFR/MVFR and VFR as fog intermittently develops and dissipates in the vicinity of the terminal.

Low (30% or less) chance of some scattered to isolated showers in the early morning hours (11-16Z), but kept out of BBG and JLN TAFs for now since confidence is so low in impacts to these sites.

Calm/variable winds overnight become southerly during the day Saturday, 5-15kts sustained with some gusts up to 20kts at KJLN.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 11: KSGF: 84/1996 KUNO: 85/1965, 2019

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 12: KSGF: 63/1972 KJLN: 71/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 66/1972

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.