textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 Sunday and Monday. Occasional wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday. Uncertainty in timing and evolution of severe threats exists. 40-70 percent chance (highest chances along and north of Highway 54) of showers and storms Monday morning into early afternoon. Some severe storms possible with damaging winds the most likely hazard.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to move through early morning/sunrise Tuesday. Some severe storms possible with damaging winds the most likely hazard.

- Additional rainfall chances (30-50%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show southwest flow aloft with a strong trough moving into the Rockies. A 40kt jet at 850mb exists from the Gulf all the way through eastern Kansas. Surface low pressure continues to strengthen across southwest Kansas with a front stretching northeast into Nebraska. Boundary layer dews remain in the middle to upper 60s. The pressure gradient was allowing for wind gust of 30-40mph however a rather expansive cumulus field was keeping winds from increasing even further. Even with cloud cover, temps were in the lower 80s early this afternoon. Recent 18z sounding from KSGF measured a very strong capping inversion/elevated mixed layer (EML). This EML was centered around 750mb with a 700mb temp of 11C.

Afternoon - Evening: While some CAMS/High res guidance tries to develop late afternoon pop up storms over the area, the latest sounding builds confidence that the chance is low (less than 20 percent). While a rogue shower may develop, most locations should remain warm, dry and breezy through this evening.

Thunderstorm Potential Overnight through Monday Afternoon: Main attention turns to Kansas and Nebraska as the low level jet will strengthen overnight and interact with the forcing of the upper level trough and the surface front. Latest 12z HREF and REFS data strongly supports a cluster of storms forming overnight across northern Kansas. These storms will form in strongly unstable and highly sheared environment. Most guidance has this cluster of storms moving due east overnight, following the forward propagating vectors. Once storms get into Missouri, wind shear does weaken and there is a signal that storms could begin to develop/slide more southeast with time and perhaps backbuild. This is especially the case after 4am as storms move towards central Missouri. The HRRR is on the southern envelope of guidance, moving this cluster of storms across areas along and north of Highway 54 around sunrise.

The limiting factor for severe storms by this time is the wind shear. Shear will be decreasing since the stronger mid level flow remains west of the area, therefore we may see more of a unorganized/weakening cluster of storms still capable of producing damaging winds. We will closely monitor this activity as there is other model guidance keeping a stronger cold pool which would allow for the complex to stay north of the area entirely.

Past events/forecaster intuition would suggest that an outflow boundary should remain somewhere near the area as the complex moves east of the area and/or weakens. IF strong late morning/early afternoon heating/destabilization can develop, then storms could redevelop near that boundary, especially if there is low level jet interaction. Wind shear might be a limiting factor however there will be a severe threat if they can become organized. Damaging winds to 60mph and large hail to the size of quarters would be the most likely hazards. The strong capping inversion will also play a role in the southward extent of precip Monday, with the potential for areas south of I-44 to remain dry. Overall, the confidence in the timing and evolution of severe weather Monday is low with additional updates likely. Highs in the 80s are possible again, especially if clouds can decrease in the late morning/afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tuesday: A strong low level jet will develop again late Monday night into Tuesday morning which along with the upper level lift moving through will force another line of storms to develop across Kansas. Most guidance brings this into southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday, moving through most of southern Missouri during the pre dawn and dawn hours Tuesday. The strongest lift/shortwave energy will be moving north of the area and wind shear again may be our limiting factor for severe storms. Current expectations are for this line to weaken as it moves through the area with a few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. The speed of the front and morning storm evolution makes the afternoon severe potential highly uncertain. Locations southeast of Springfield could see a slightly higher severe threat if enough destabilization occurs.

Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern does not change much as the area remains in the west/southwest upper level flow pattern. The front that moves through Tuesday will likely lift back into the area and will serve as a focus for additional chances for showers and storms. Additional shortwaves looks to move in late Wednesday through Friday and rain chances have now increased into the 30-50% range. Cooler air aloft and precip chances look to keep our temps several degrees cooler than the last few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Middle to high clouds will continue to move over the region tonight and into Monday morning. A few showers or storms may develop and impact portions of the Ozarks after sunrise Monday morning. Where showers and storms do occur, flight conditions will become briefly MVFR, otherwise expect VFR flight conditions. In general, rain chances are limited thus the PROB30.

A dynamic system in the plains will allow for continued strong and gusty surface winds through the forecast. Periods of low level wind shear will be possible for the KJLN and KBBG terminals after midnight into the early morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.