textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Tuesday.

- A more unsettled pattern sets up Tuesday night into next weekend as temperatures trend cooler with periodic rain chances.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation into mid-February.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 218 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2025

Some light sprinkles/showers pushed through far southern Missouri this morning and early afternoon accompanying an upper level disturbance and associated surface Low, with showers over northeast AR and south-central MO still visible on radar (as of 2PM). Any rainfall in MO was very light, with observations showing some locations receiving only a couple hundredths of an inch. Visible satellite imagery shows high level clouds continuing to push out of the eastern Ozarks, with clear skies over most of the remaining forecast area.

With the cloud cover clearing out earlier than initially expected, temperatures as of 2PM have already surpassed our initial highs for the day, with observations in the mid to upper 60s west of Highway 65 (and even reaching the low 70s in some areas). Further east where cloud cover remains, temperatures are still in the 50s. As cloud cover continues to clear out and more afternoon heating occurs, temps should climb a few more degrees where peak heating hasn't already occurred. Barely any models were matching the current observations as of 2PM, but decided to blend a mixture of the bias-corrected CMC (Canadian) and ECMWF (Euro) for afternoon highs, reaching the 60s to low 70s for the majority of the area (higher end of that range over far southwest MO).

Light and variable winds are expected for tonight, with mostly clear skies cooling temperatures down to the 30s (low 30s out east, upper 30s to the west), and potentially the upper 20s in the valleys.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of the week, with Monday showcasing 850mb temps between 10-12C and 925mb temps between 12-16C (above the 90th percentile). This should correlate well with what the NBM has, which is highs in the upper 60s east of Hwy 65, and the low to mid 70s west of Hwy 65. Some locations over far southwest MO could top out in the upper 70s. The Climate section below highlights some records that we could come close to, however many locations should remain just shy of records.

Tuesday's temperature forecast is a bit harder to nail down, as additional cloud cover and a surface boundary pushes in from the north. Currently going with the low to mid 60s north of I-44 (sooner affected by the clouds/cold front), and the mid 60s to low 70s south of I-44. With the NBM interquartile spread highlighting a large difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, confidence in these highs remain low.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 218 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

An upper level closed low currently over the Baja Peninsula will continue pushing east, becoming an open wave over the Southern Plains before pivoting southeast towards the Gulf. This will bring some upper level energy up into our area, resulting in precipitation returning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Not much change from the previous forecast for this system - the greater precipitation chances continue to look southeast of our area, with 30-50% pops primarily along/south of I-44. NBM 24-hour probability of QPF > 0.10" is only 30-50% (south of I-44), with QPF > 0.25" showing only a 30-40% chance. That being said, we're not expecting much rainfall with this system.

The better chances for precipitation look to be towards the end of the week through much of the weekend as multiple upper level waves push through/around the region. To end out the week, pops remain in the 30-40% range Thursday and Friday. A more prominent upper level closed low will move through the area on Saturday however, bringing higher chances (40-60%) through the majority of the day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1106 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period, with surface winds below 10kts becoming light and variable overnight. Some light sprinkles will be possible during the first hour or so of the period for KBBG, as current radar imagery depicts light rain over far southwest MO/northwest AR. This activity isn't expected to cause any Cig/Vis impacts to the terminal.

CLIMATE

Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 8: KSGF: 72/1943 KJLN: 73/2015

February 9: KSGF: 76/1932 KJLN: 73/2000 KVIH: 69/2000

February 10: KSGF: 74/1999

Record Precipitation:

February 13: KJLN: 0.88/2001

February 14: KUNO: 1.46/1949

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.