textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and drizzle continue early this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9AM for areas along/west of an Ozark to Morgan County line. - Rain with embedded scattered thunderstorms will move across the area from west to east mid morning into this evening. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Lower chances (20-40%) of rain on Sunday and Memorial Day mainly south of I-44. Many locations will remain dry.

- Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 507 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Observations over the past couple hours have shown deteriorating visibilities, with multiple locations periodically dropping down to 0.25 miles and below. High-Res model guidance also suggests higher probabilities (60-70%) of dense fog (<0.25 mile visibility) continuing over the next several hours. Although visibilities have been fluctuating, the persistent nature of visibilities dropping to 0.25 miles in addition to the potentially increased travel due to the Holiday weekend, decided to issue a short-fused Dense Fog Advisory for areas generally along and west of a Ozark to Morgan County line until 9am when probabilities begin to drop off.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Current synoptic analysis depicts an upper level low currently situated over the Northern Plains/Manitoba, Canada, with the associated shortwave trough over the central CONUS. There remains some weak MUCAPE between 250-500 J/kg in our west (up to 1000+ J/kg over eastern KS), with some isolated showers/thunderstorms over eastern KS observed during the early morning hours (as of 2 AM). Observations show some areas of lowered visibilities periodically fluctuating below 1 mile as some patchy fog is developing. HREF probabilities sit at 60-70% chances of these lowered visibilities becoming more widespread, so we'll continue to monitor if widespread dense fog occurs/if a Dense Fog Advisory is needed. Assessing the drizzle potential, the cloud ice will continue to drop off, especially for areas along/west of Highway 65. With pockets of lift and remaining moisture over the area, some patchy drizzle will continue to be possible during the overnight hours, generally before sunrise.

During the day today, the aforementioned shortwave trough will continue pushing east towards the area, with MUCAPE up to 1000-1200 J/kg developing ahead of the trough. A cold front will push through with the trough, increasing chances (55-75%) for showers and some scattered embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected however, as shear remains minimal. Rainfall amounts will generally range between 0.25" to 1.0", with HREF LPMM showing localized areas could receive up to 2-3" with the stronger storms.

Otherwise, temperatures are expected to return to near-normal today, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The upper level shortwave will continue pushing east of the area on Sunday, with 20-40% chances of isolated showers generally southeast of the I-44 corridor during the afternoon hours. Most locations will remain dry. That being said, an active pattern will continue into next week, with a series of upper level shortwaves bringing rain chances to the area. Memorial Day should remain dry for most areas, with only 15-20% chances of light showers over south- central Missouri. However, an upper level low is progged to move over the region on Tuesday, generally remaining in place/wobbling across the region through the end of the week. Tuesday showcases 60-90% chances of showers and thunderstorms, with daily chances (40-60%) of rainfall through the end of the week. We're not expecting all-day washouts by any means, with light rain and pockets of moderate rainfall occurring at times. Additionally, no severe weather is currently expected.

Temperatures next week will be hard to pin down, as highs will be largely dependent on the rainfall timing and cloud cover associated with these systems. In general, clear days will lead to highs climbing into the upper 70s/low 80s, with cloudy days limiting highs to the low/mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas of patchy to dense fog with visibilities down to a quarter mile or less will continue until approximately 13Z-15Z, with LIFR to VLIFR flight conditions at KSGF and KBBG respectively, and MVFR at KJLN. Later this morning, conditions should improve back to VFR. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move west to east later this afternoon and evening, with the better chances between 18Z-00Z at the terminals. With any stronger storm, lowered flight categories could occur. Towards the end of the TAF period, additional fog chances could reduce ceilings and visibilities once again.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055-056- 066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.