textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk for severe weather across most of the area this afternoon and evening. Hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized flash flooding.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday. Multiple rounds of storms may bring localized areas up to 4-7 inches of rain.

- Drier with near-normal temperatures next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Thunderstorms are currently moving through southeastern Missouri early this morning where they have prompted a few Flash Flood Warnings and even some continuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the potential to put down damaging winds. This activity is being forced at the nose of a low-level jet that is fully cranking away at around 35 kts. Storm motion is modest, but the favored areas for development continue to train new thunderstorms over the same areas that have been experiencing rain for hours already. Precipitable water is 2"+ in this area, making the training especially efficient.

Besides the flash flooding risk, the severe threat is winding down with the diurnal thermo and the generally messy storm mode creating a robust cold pool. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas from roughly Lake of the Ozarks down to West Plains and east. Rain totals in this area as of about 2 AM Friday are largely an inch or more with some areas exceeding 3 inches. Just outside the SGF CWA, Wayne county has seen over 5 inches of rain in the last 12 hours.

Storms will continue in this area and may develop farther to the northwest into central Missouri over the next several hours, dissipating around sunrise. Lows will get down to around 70 degrees in these areas, with the rest of the CWA only cooling to the mid 70s. Clouds thin a bit through the daytime hours, but some remaining cloud cover will keep us a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. The stationary boundary remains parked just north of the Plateau and the environment remains largely unchanged from yesterday, making it no surprise that we are once again in for severe storms today with a Slight risk (level 2/5) from the SPC for essentially the southern half of the state.

There will still be plenty of moisture to work with today with forecast precipitable water values around 1.5-2". As surface temperatures warm with the heat of the day, this moisture will begin to converge along the synoptic boundary, and up to 3500 J/Kg of CAPE will do the rest. Bulk shear looks better this afternoon with longer hodographs, increasing the hail threat from what we saw today, potentially up to half-dollar sized hail with the highest cores.

With extremely high surface theta-e, 0-3 km differentials will be very favorable for damaging winds. The synoptic forcing and deep layer shear will support the potential for 60-70 mph surface winds, especially with any linear/bowing segments with a descending RIJ. Again, this is a similar setup to yesterday with similar wind hazards.

Storms begin to fire near the center of the MCV (near Omaha) around midday, with trailing development into central Missouri beginning around 3-5 PM. The activity will continue into the evening and overnight, again bringing the risk for flash flooding. The Flood Watch is currently in effect through Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Precipitation lingers into Saturday as an upper-level shortwave keeps supporting development. There is currently a Marginal risk (level 1/5) from the SPC for severe storms Saturday, though a Slight risk lies against our border to the south. This is a result of the generally zonal pattern not acting to move the stalled boundary, and we will see what is hopefully a lower-magnitude echo of Friday's activity.

Heading into Sunday, precipitation finally comes to an end by midday as building high pressure to the north finally dislodges the boundary to the south. Through the rest of the period, precipitation potential comes in the form of isolated afternoon summer thunderstorms with less than 20% chance of occurrence.

Broad upper-level ridging begins to build in early next week, allowing for a slow warming trend of a degree or two per day until highs return to around 90 by the end of the week. However, longer term guidance is suggesting the potential for a return to uncomfortable heat after the next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Storms will be moving through the area throughout the day today, but don't become confidently widespread until after 00Z. Covered the storm chances as well as the potential for resulting temporarily reduced CIGVIS in both prevailing and PROB30 groups. Winds start south southwest up to 10-15 kts becoming light and variable after 00Z (exclusive of thunderstorm wind gusts).

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071- 082-083-097-098-106.