textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and fair conditions with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the weekend. Drier air will alleviate the recent muggy conditions, making Tuesday and Wednesday more pleasant.

- Rain chances (30-60%) return Friday and last through the weekend. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures likely to be above normal for the next two weeks, with precipitation chances leaning towards above normal through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Two upper-level troughs are located over the northwest and northeast portions of the country, separated by a building ridge through the central Plains. At the surface, a weak occluded low is spinning over southern Saskatchewan under the northwestern trough, while an area of high pressure continues to build southward from the Hudson Bay into the UP of Michigan. This high pressure has pushed a backdoor cold front into the area, with easterly winds now prevailing across the area.

A shortwave trough has ejected off the trough to our northwest into the central Plains, leading to the development of an MCS in south-central Kansas Monday evening. This storm complex has taken a southward dive compared to its previous eastward movement, and should continue to progress along the MLCAPE gradient across central/northeast Oklahoma through the morning hours. CAMs indicate that the complex will continue to decay as well as stay southwest of our area, but portions of far southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas may get clipped by the northern edge and see some rain showers early this morning. There is an errant chance of an isolated shower or storm late this morning into early this afternoon along the Arkansas/Oklahoma and Missouri/Kansas state lines as the outflow of the northern edge of the complex runs into the cold front, but no severe weather is expected if these storms do form due to the disorganized and weak shear profile.

Otherwise, today stays partly to mostly sunny, especially into central Missouri. The cold front and easterly winds will slowly begin to advect much drier air into the area from northeast to southwest this evening and especially tonight, providing some respite from the muggy conditions we've had the last few days. Highs will be a few degrees cooler today, in the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the area. Far southwest Missouri and eastern Kansas may push into the mid- to upper 80s, but the decreased dew points and breezy 15-20 mph gusts should keep heat indices within 2-4 degrees of the actual temperature.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Synoptic Evolution: The high pressure dominating the eastern portion of the country will slowly slide east through the week, with the upper-level pattern staying fairly blocked through Thursday, when the ridge starts breaking down and flow becomes zonal across the central US. Throughout the week, several embedded shortwaves will attempt to undercut the ridge as they eject off the Rockies, bringing rounds of continued rain chances to the states to our west. The shower and storm chances will slowly creep east towards our area as the shortwaves continue disrupting the ridge and pushing it east, but should stay west of our area through at least Wednesday and most of Thursday.

Rain Chances: As winds turn southerly on Thursday with the departing high pressure, they begin to advect more moisture into the area. Showers and thunderstorms could return as early as Thursday afternoon (GEFS and ENS solutions) or as late as Friday afternoon/evening (GEPS solution). NBM PoPs split the difference, increasing to 30-60% on Friday morning. Models diverge on the evolution after this, but zonal flow on global ensembles suggests that shortwaves are likely to continue ejecting off the Rockies into the Plains into this weekend, in addition to the development of a larger upper-level disturbance in Baja California late this week that will lift into the central Plains over the weekend.

Keep An Eye On Flood Potential This Weekend: With multiple rounds of rainfall possible with the shortwaves late week and larger synoptic disturbance over the weekend, we are monitoring for the potential of another series of MCSs going into the weekend. Details are minimal at this time, but the conceptual model and typical early summer climatology would suggest that any MCSs could support heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding. WPC maintained a broad area of Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall from Texas to Wisconsin for Friday, and added another fairly broad Marginal Risk area from Texas into northern Missouri for Saturday as well.

Temperatures: Temperatures stay in the seasonable upper 70s to mid-80s through the weekend. Average highs for early June are low 80s. Low temperatures will slowly rise 2-3 degrees each night this week, starting in the low to mid-50s in south-central Missouri and low 60s in western Missouri tonight and increasing to mid- to upper 60s by Friday night.

Moisture/Heat Indices: A very dry air mass moves in slowly behind the cold front, with dew points expected to drop into the lower 50s to upper 40s Wednesday afternoon. Dew points have been in the upper 60s to low 70s the last several days, so the dry air will make conditions quite pleasant on Wednesday, keeping apparent temperatures equal to the air temperatures Wednesday afternoon. Moisture will begin to creep back in overnight Thursday into Friday, increasing heat indices into the upper 80s in most areas for Thursday and Friday.

Beyond The Forecast Period: Long-range models are indicating fairly strong 500mb height anomalies persisting across much of the country for the next 5-10 days. CPC is highlighting 50-70% chances of above normal temperatures in our area through June 15. The southerly flow associated with the likely ridging pattern will keep moist air in place across the southern Plains during this period, which contributes to the 6-10 day precipitation outlook leaning above normal as well (40-50%) through June 11.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds move through the area today, with light east-northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots. Dissipating clouds into this evening and tonight, with winds becoming more east-southeast.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.