textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for severe storms south of Interstate 44 this afternoon and early evening. The primary hazard is isolated wind gusts up to 60-70 mph, with secondary risks of large hail up to half dollar size and localized flooding.

- Rain chances returning next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Convection this afternoon and early evening: - Impacts: Severe storms with isolated 60-70 mph winds and hail up to the size of half dollars. Localized flooding. - Details: Strong to severe storms are expected south of I-44. These storms are starting to fire as of 1:20pm and will continue into early this evening before pushing south of the area. - Confidence: 80-90% confidence in warnings being required. - Meteorological Analysis: A weak front pushing south will continue to initiate convection in an area of agitated cumulus. SBCAPE values of 4,500+ J/kg will support aggressive updraft development, but very weak bulk shear of < 20 kts will prevent organization. This decreases the hail threat substantially, with generally small to marginally severe hail expected. Will advertise up to half dollar size. Main hazard will be localized damaging winds up to 60-70 mph due to 0-3km theta-e differences of 30-40 K. OPSTI values up to 14-16 also shows strong support for severe pulse storms.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Quiet those most of this period, but rain chances return late this week into next weekend: - Impacts: Too early to tell, but will be watching for any flooding threats. Risk appears low at this time, though. - Details: Moving back into a rainy pattern late this week through next weekend. - Confidence: Medium. - Meteorological Analysis: The upper high over the central CONUS keeps the area fairly quiet will shift east late this week as upper troughing settles over the midwest. This will lead to a wetter pattern. Ensemble PWATs are generally 1.5-2", which is around 150% of normal. This may support a flooding threat, but important details related to that have a low predictability at this point.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A weak front over KSGF and KJLN at 18Z today will push south, keeping the majority of the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening south of these sites. KBBG will likely see convection nearby or overhead, with large hail and especially damaging winds as the primary threat with pulse/microburst thunderstorms. Storms will push south of the area this evening. There is less than a 30% chance of fog tonight at KBBG. For now, left fog out of the forecast.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.