textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM as heat index values warm to around 100 to 105 degrees. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening. Highest chances for severe storms are west of Highway 65. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard along with lightning and localized flash flooding. Those outdoors will need to be weather aware this afternoon and evening.

- Additional storm chances (20-50%) will be possible across the area at times from Sunday into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a broad zonal type flow over the area with embedded shortwaves moving through. A surface front/trough was draped across Kansas into Missouri where an ongoing MCS was tracking through the Highway 54 corridor. Along and south of Highway 54, the airmass was strongly unstable with ML CAPES around 2500j/kg however wind shear was weak, around 20kts. It was very humid with temps approaching 90 and dews in the middle 70s. Satellite imagery also showed a outflow boundary just south of the MCS that was moving through southeast Kansas, towards the area. There was an expansive cumulus field developing across the area given the moisture and instability.

Thunderstorm Potential through Tonight: Short term guidance has struggled with the current MCS over the Highway 54 corridor of west central Missouri. The RRFS is doing a little better and with the activity however it was a tad north.Given the favorable instability environment we expect this cluster of storms to continue moving east along Highway 54 this afternoon and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for this region until 7pm for damaging wind potential.

Other storms, more isolated/pulse in nature may also form either along or ahead of the outflow boundary across the rest of the area. Decreasing inhibition, high PW and high thetaE Diffs suggest the potential for localized damaging downburst winds with any storms this afternoon across the area however locations east of Springfield might have a little better pulse environment. There are numerous outdoor events and activities therefore stay weather aware this afternoon. Hot conditions will continues and the Heat Advisory remains in effect.

This Evening/Tonight: The ongoing complex moving through north of Springfield as well as additional afternoon pop ups cast greater uncertainty on severe potential for this evening and tonight. Earlier day guidance showed severe storms developing this evening northwest of the area and moving in as additional energy moves in and interacts with the instability and remaining boundaries. One scenario we are starting to see play out is that once this cluster of storms moves through, there may be some subsidence which would cause a lull/break in storm potential this evening. However this may only be temporary as other storms refire in southern Kansas. It is these storms in Kansas that will likely move east/southeast back into the area tonight. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with these storms, especially along and west of I-49. There is a localized flash flood risk tonight if storms move over the same areas. The 12z HREF LPMM does show localized pockets of 2-3 inches.

Additional updates are likely as storm expectations become more clear this afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The overall pattern becomes a little more northwesterly going forward into next week. This will allow for additional energy to move in and keep precip chances going. For Sunday, currently have 20-50 pops going given scattered storm expectations. The area looks to stay on the northeast periphery of a developing mid level ridge across the southwest US. This could allow for additional off and on rain chances through the week however higher chances exist later in the week. Temps look to be a little cooler than previous days with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area throughout the period, becoming prevailing around 06Z. Thunderstorms may result in temporary CIG/VIS reductions, but in general, conditions will largely remain VFR. Winds will continue to be light and variable before becoming light out of the northwest around 15Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.