textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds of 35-45 mph will occur at times through the remainder of the afternoon. The strongest winds will generally be along and northwest of I-44.

- Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight with all hazards possible. Primary hazards are hail up to baseball size, 70-80 mph winds, and a few tornadoes. The greatest severe risk is across central MO. Localized heavy rainfall may support localized flash flooding this evening and tonight.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday into early Thursday night, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and flash flooding are possible.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Forecast remains very similar to previous iterations, with a short window this afternoon with the potential for isolated but significant severe weather in central Missouri and a longer window this evening for scattered strong to severe storms before storms break apart and dissipate.

Items of note unrelated to storm potential: - Heat: Temperatures already in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees as of 1 PM this afternoon. With dew points in the 70s across most of the area, widespread heat indices in the 90s will occur this afternoon, even pushing above 100 degrees in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri. - Wind: Widespread sustained southwesterly winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40mph ongoing. Strong winds continue until cold front arrives.

Onto severe potential today/tonight:

Storm Mode/Coverage: Storms should initiate north of our forecast area as supercells that nearly immediately grow into broken clusters along the cold front and move south into our northern forecast area. The front will be the primary forcing mechanism and focal point for initial storms. Shear and instability weaken as storms move south, and storms will initially sustain in the weaker environments before slowly breaking apart and weakening in intensity into the evening as they move further south.

Location: Central Missouri, especially north of Hwy 54, still has the best severe (and especially significant severe) potential due to the higher instability. Confidence in severe weather decreases with southward and westward progression as you get more removed from better instability/shear.

Severity/Intensity: There will be a short window where these supercells will be able to tap into sufficient instability and low-level shear with impressively curved hodographs in the low-levels. Any supercells will be capable of hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds 70-80 mph, and tornadoes, especially before 8PM. Intensity will sustain into more hostile environments to the south and west initially, before slowly weakening and breaking apart into the evening.

Flooding: Storms will be capable of 1-3" per hour rain rates, and with all of the recent rainfall, flooding will be a concern nearly anywhere that sees rain rates greater than an inch per hour. HREF/REFS LPMMs indicate localized areas/bands of 2-3" in 6 hours, which supports the Slight (Level 2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook across the region.

Training Storms: While confidence still is low that this scenario will pan out, CAMs are back to suggesting that additional backbuilding and training along the front will occur at times overnight and into Thursday near the Missouri/Arkansas border as the front stalls. The flooding risk will increase significantly if any storms begin to train/backbuild.

Thursday Severe Potential: Regardless of if storms train overnight, elevated convection appears increasingly likely to develop behind the front Thursday morning. These storms would be capable of large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds, though the potential overnight convection decreases confidence in seeing severe weather if this activity develops and brings coverage into question. Regardless, we've seen this setup before, and damaging winds and elevated hailers appear possible, especially in the morning hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Friday will be quiet and dry, with highs in the 80s after storms move out Thursday. The quiet period will be brief, with another upper-level system pushing shortwaves through the area into the weekend, bringing PoPs back to 50-70% Saturday through Monday. With the repeated rounds of rainfall, flooding and additional severe weather appear possible again through the weekend. While considerable uncertainty remains in details of the threats, continue to check the forecast for additional rounds of severe weather and heavy rainfall this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are observed at terminals early this evening with a few to scattered cloud deck around 4,000 ft. Gusty southwest winds will subside within the next hour or two and remain under 12 kts for the rest of the TAF cycle. 2340z radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe storms extending from near KCNU to KNVD to KRAW. These will continue to push east southeast, eventually reaching the KSGF and KJLN terminals this evening. Have refined timing of TEMPO groups based on latest short term model guidance. Confidence remains well below 50% on if this line of storms will hold together by the time it reaches KBBG by 05z, so no mentions were included at this terminal.

MVFR ceilings will move into the terminals after 08z and persist for some portion of the morning hours. A few models suggest some scattered showers and storms redeveloping after 08z too, but confidence in placement and location of said storms remains low for inclusion in TAF at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.