textproduct: Springfield
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Localized frost possible in the eastern Ozarks tonight.
- Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday and Monday.
- Additional low end severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026
Localized frost possible in the eastern Ozarks tonight: - Impacts: Risk to sensitive plants in typical cold spots over the eastern Ozarks. - Details: Forecast calls for lows in the mid to upper 30s over the east along with isolated, patchy frost. - Confidence: NBM probability of min temps < 36 F is 30-60% in the impacted area. This is a rough proxy for frost potential.
Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms Sunday and Monday: - Impacts: Low potential for isolated severe storms with 60 mph winds and one inch hail. - Details: Northern portions of the CWA from west-central Mo through central MO may see isolated storms, a couple of which may be strong to severe in the afternoon and evening both days. - Confidence: SPC severe probabilities are 5%, which seems reasonable given marginal environment and limited coverage. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy both days will lead to similar potentials both days. A roughly 30% chance of showers and storms is in the forecast Sunday and Monday afternoon and evening. SREF Interquartile CAPE/Shear values are 500-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE with 35-45 kts of deep layer shear. This may lead to a couple strong to marginally severe storms.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026
Additional low end severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday: - Impacts: Low risk (< 15% chance) for severe storms on Tuesday. - Details: SPC does not highlight the area for severe weather, but model guidance does show a low end severe risk. - Confidence: Low. - Meteorological Analysis: NW flow will give way to an upper trough and surface cold front moving through the central CONUS. This will lead to 50-80% chances for showers and storms with a < 15% chance of severe weather. Severe storm chances are shown by some of the AI/ML guidance. Timing differences may push the threat earlier or later.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026
VFR conditions and light winds will linger through the TAF period.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None. MO...None.
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