textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect from 11 PM tonight until 9 AM Monday morning for areas along and south of I-44 and along and east of the Polk to Stone County line. Visibilities may drop below a half mile at times, especially in low-lying areas.

- Windy Tuesday with gusts up to 35 mph possible west of Springfield.

- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) this week with highs in the 60s and 70s through Thursday. Some records may be broken.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor show a closed low over the southeast U.S. which aided in bringing us some much needed rainfall to the forecast area, but also brought severe weather to the lower Mississippi valley yesterday. A ridge axis was building into the area behind the upper wave from the plains with another closed low off the Pacific coast. The surface low was over northwest Alabama early this afternoon with some gusty northerly winds behind the low over the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. The extensive low cloud cover which was over the area earlier this morning quickly dissipated by late morning. Temperatures at noon were ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s with dewpoints in the low to mid 40s.

Tonight: Some radiational fog will be possible tonight especially over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA where light and variable winds will reside the longest into the overnight. We should start to see some light fog developing around midnight as we approach the crossover temperatures in the low to mid 40s with a clear sky and light wind. HREF probabilities of >50% for dense fog formation over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA after 06z and linger until around 12z-13z. Not planning on an advisory just yet since it isn't a slam dunk, but added this potential in the forecast. Less chance for fog in the northwest 1/2 of the CWA due to surface winds increasing earlier in the overnight hours as the pressure gradient increases with an approaching low pressure system. Lows tonight are expected in the mid 30s in the southeast and the low 40s in the west.

Monday: Upper level ridge begins to push into the area from the west along with low level warm advection setting up. Surface winds may gust up to 30 mph over the western CWA. Fog should clear out by late morning with afternoon sunshine warming temperatures into the mid 60s to around 70 during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Windy conditions Tuesday: As the storm system pushes into the western U.S. with associated strong upper level jet(150-160kts), low pressure will strengthen over the northern and central plains. The tight pressure gradient will develop strong winds in the lower atmosphere. Mixing up to around 900mb shows a potential momentum transfer of 30 to 40 kts. We may see some wind gusts in excess of 35 mph during the day west of Springfield.

There is a narrow band of moisture ahead of the upper wave and surface front Tuesday night along with some weak instability. Most of the precipitation is staying north of our CWA, but does get into our northern sections of the CWA(15-25%).

Much above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday: Ahead of the front on Tuesday, strong south to southwest low level flow will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s despite the increased cloud cover. The front is not expected to cool things down for Wednesday or Thursday with similar readings each day. These highs may approach or eclipse records as well as some potential warmest lows(see climate section for these records).

Another upper wave and frontal system may bring some precipitation to the area late in the week. This front will probably lower temperatures closer back to normal by Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A high pressure system will traverse the area for the first half of the TAF period, bringing clear skies, calm and variable winds, and the chance for some impactful fog. Forecast soundings and high resolution guidance are in very good agreement for at least MVFR visibility fog/mist at SGF and BBG, with a 50-70% chance for dense, LIFR visibility fog/mist. The chance is lower at JLN (15-30%), therefore, only included TEMPO groups for MVFR fog versus LIFR fog TEMPOs at SGF and BBG.

Any fog may clear a bit earlier than forecast due to increasing southerly winds after 12Z. Expect peak winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts after 15Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 73/1911 KJLN: 74/2011 KVIH: 73/2017

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 54/2011 KJLN: 63/1911 KUNO: 55/1961 KVIH: 55/1961

February 18: KSGF: 51/1971 KJLN: 58/1971 KUNO: 53/1971 KVIH: 50/2017

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ070-071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.