textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-30% chance of a light rain/light snow mix tonight through Saturday morning. No accumulation or impacts expected. Many locations will remain dry.

- Much cooler temperatures this weekend into early next week then warming back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a strong (150kt) upper level jet moving through the area. Shortwave energy was currently moving through northern Missouri with additional energy moving into the Rockies. A strong, nearly occluded surface low was located over northwest Illinois with a trailing front along the Mississippi River. Strong low level cold air advection was occuring in the wake of this system with surface temps 40 degrees colder than about 12 hours ago. Gusty west winds were continuing however they were trending down as the low is pulling away from the region.

Light Rain/Light Snow Mix Tonight: Given the continued west/southwest flow aloft, the shortwave over the Rockies will slide east into the area this evening. While lift will overspread the area, low level moisture again looks to be a limiting factor for precip chances/amounts. HREF mean forecast soundings for tonight shows mid level moisture in most cases however RH below 850mb is low. Thermal profiles suggest that there will be enough cold air aloft for snow however surface temps may remain at or just above freezing. Locations north of Interstate 44 will be closer to the stronger lift and may have a slightly higher potential to actually seeing that light rain/light snow mix. Latest high res guidance and NBM keeps precip chances less than 30 percent tonight. Given the lack of moisture this seems reasonable with many locations not seeing any measurable precip.

Much Cooler Temperatures through Saturday: After the last few days of well above average temps, highs today and Saturday will be below average. Mean 850mb temps closer to 0C will keep highs down into the 40s, especially with late day clouds today and partly clouds skies Saturday. Locations along the Missouri/Arkansas border may reach 50 today before the clouds return. Low temps below freezing are likely tonight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 145 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Much Cooler Temperatures Sunday through Early Next Week then Warming Up: The shortwave trough will slide just east of the area Sunday with a 1040mb surface high axis building into the area for Monday morning. This will lead to continued below average high and low temps. Latest NBM has a 70-95% chance of temps in the teens Monday morning for the northeast half of the area. Latest ensemble cluster analysis then shows a general pattern change back to a large mid level ridge across the Rockies by early to mid next week. This will allow for a return to southwest winds and warming temperatures across the area. We will need to monitor the return/increasing southwest winds and warmer temps for Tuesday as there are indications of potential elevated fire danger conditions.

Ensembles then diverge by Thursday as there are indications of shortwave energy dropping down into the area which could provide the next chance of rainfall if enough moisture is present. Confidence is low with rain chances less than 30 percent at this time. Therefore, given the lack of widespread rainfall over the next several days, rainfall deficits will continue to increase across the area, exacerbating drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will begin to increase by this evening. There is a 20-30 percent chance of light rain or light snow tonight however confidence is low on any accumulation and/or inclusion into the TAFs. Winds will gradually decrease today out of the west with 20-25kts dropping down closer to 15kts by this afternoon. A gradually turn from the west to the north will also occur through the day.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.