textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A stationary front will present 20-50% chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms west of Highway 65 through Thursday. A couple heavy downpours and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms this afternoon.

- Highest thunderstorm chances (40-80%) occur Thursday night through Friday. Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Friday, mainly east of I-49. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows a classic CONUS-length longwave with deep ridging over the southern Plains, and deep troughing over the northeast CONUS. Northwesterly flow across the Ozarks is positioned between the ridge and the trough features. Within this gradient, a stationary boundary is setup at the surface, stretching pretty much parallel to the 9780 isohypse at 300 mb. This is from central Kansas, down through extreme southwest Missouri and into west-central Arkansas. Along and southwest of the boundary, temperatures have risen into the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints in the middle 70s. Northeast of the boundary, temperatures are a bit cooler in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the middle 60s. Visible satellite imagery also shows convergence in the vicinity of this surface boundary as a field of agitated cumulus (and some showers and thunderstorms already on radar) have developed.

20-50% chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms today:

These scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop in the vicinity of the stationary front through this afternoon and evening as peak heating is reached. This is generally in the extreme southeast corner of Kansas and extreme southwest corner of Missouri. Our 12Z sounding had PWATs of 1.98 inches, with RAP analysis suggesting values as high as 2.1 inches along the boundary. With elevated moisture, SBCAPE values are also excessively in the 3000-4500 J/kg range. Therefore, the main hazard with these storms will be heavy downpours. However, the Ozark Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index is highlighting the potential for a few of the storms to be capable of producing wind gusts up to 40-50 mph.

Any storm should rain itself out in 30 minutes to an hour as shear is weak and mean-layer flow is leading to near-zero storm motions. And with the lack of any advection over the front, there should not be much redevelopment in the same areas, limiting a flooding threats. These storms should generally dissipate through the evening, leaving a brief lull in precipitation chances until Thursday morning.

Continued scattered shower and storm chances through Thursday:

The stationary boundary will have barely moved by Thursday morning. A very subtle vort max and related warm air advection nose will overlap the front Thursday morning, which should increase scattered shower chances again to 20-50% generally along and west of I-49. These chances should be more showery than thundery given weak ascent above the residual nocturnal inversion. They will generally decrease by mid to late afternoon Thursday.

Residual localized heat remains a limited concern:

Based on the temperature/dewpoint observations described above, Heat Index values have ranged from 100-105 in some places west of Highway 65. Therefore, heat remains a concern for localized areas. The areas will be localized and transient as high-level cloud cirrus clouds along with cloud cover from scattered showers will generally cool things below 100 F. Lows tonight will also stay rather mild west of Highway 65 with readings forecast to be in the lower to middle 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Highest chances for rain come Thursday night into Friday morning:

The stationary front will finally get some movement Thursday night as a rather potent mid-level wave for late July drops straight south along the Missouri River in Nebraska, forcing a surface low within Nebraska/Kansas. This will advance the stationary boundary eastward as a warm front as a warm air advection response develops. The warm air and moisture advection over the front occurs, a thunderstorm complex is forecast to develop in the northern and central Plains, dropping southeast into the area late Thursday night into Friday morning (40-80% chance). HREF and REFS members suggest that as the complex makes it into our area, MUCAPE/Shear values will dwindle, leading to the activity to be rather messy with lightning and heavy rain being the main hazards. That said, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out in any stronger storm.

Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening:

The complex is forecast to weaken as it moves west to east across the area Friday morning. This provides some uncertainty in how widespread cloud debris is and how long that hangs around Friday, which would impact storm chances that Friday afternoon. Putting that uncertainty aside for now, the setup has the anomalous wave and associated surface low and cold front moving through Friday afternoon. Instability will be no problem, and shear should increase ahead of the wave, which will bring a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather. It's a bit too early to say anything definitive as synoptic conditions often change drastically 3 days out in late Summer. As a representation of this, there is still additional uncertainty in the magnitude of shear with 10th-90th percentile LREF members ranging from 20-35 kts. So if solutions trend toward the greater shear values, with the low triple point forecast to move through central Missouri and a narrow warm sector pushing through our area ahead of the strong front, an all hazard threat could develop. Continue to monitor the forecast for any potential upgrades in the severe risk.

Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this weekend:

EFI and ESAT ensemble forecasts point to this system being rather anomalous (dynamic) for late summer. A relatively strong cold front will surge through with the wave. This will bring unseasonably cool temperatures with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s Saturday and Sunday. It will also bring unseasonably windy conditions Saturday. The EFI says approximately 80-90% of models are above the climatologically normal distribution with some members on the extreme side. This is a result of a forecasted north wind at 13-18 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Not really near any wind advisory, but it will feel more brisk than you are used to for late Summer. Some LREF members suggest a 30-40% chance of gusts up to 35-40 mph at times Saturday.

Temperatures gradually warm back up through next week:

Following these briefly cool temperatures, global ensemble members gradually build the ridge back into the area, raising temperatures back to near normal through next week. Rain chances are also rather low (<30%), and will likely continue to diminish as latest global model trends have backed off on a closed low solutions for early next week. Would imagine forecasts to drop lower as the time-lagged models exit the NBM forecast.

Moving forward, the CPC has the whole CONUS in 33-70% chances for above normal temperatures in the 6-14 day range (50-60% chance for our area). Therefore, expect normal August weather to return towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A few showers and storms were on going in the vicinity of a stationary boundary that is lingering across the area. This activity is expected to continue but diminish into this evening with the main impacts at JLN and BBG.

Winds will generally be from 5 to 15kts. Renewed chances for showers are possible (30-40% chance) at JLN between 12-21Z as another system moves in from the west.

Other than the chance of showers and storms, conditions are expected to remain VFR for the entire period except where a storm would move over a TAF site.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.