textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light rain and drizzle in the eastern Ozarks will continue to exit from west to east, clearing the area by 9 AM this morning.

- 60-80% chance of snow this weekend. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for counties along and south of a Joplin to Eminence line where at least a 50% chance of 5 inches of snow exists. There is still uncertainty in exact amounts, with a sharp accumulation cut-off possible, even in the watch area.

- High confidence in well below normal temperatures. Single digit lows with wind chills below zero will be likely each morning this weekend (70-95% chance).

- Temperatures are expected to stay below freezing through at least Tuesday, which will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground to clear.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The longwave pattern continues to stay stagnant but dynamic with deep troughing across central and eastern Canada/CONUS. In mid- level water vapor imagery, a few low-amplitude shortwaves can be seen, with the most obvious one located over central KS. A surface cold front is located not too far from the shortwave, stretching from south-central IA, down into the OK/TX panhandles. Ahead of the front, radar imagery shows widespread light rain showers within a zone of strong low-level warm air advection southeast of a line from Anderson to Eminence.

Periods of light rain and drizzle exit the area this morning:

These showers/drizzles will continue to move east out of the area through this morning. With warm air advection ongoing, most areas have warmed above freezing. However, cold holes and valleys in the eastern Ozarks (especially Shannon County) are slow to warm above freezing. For example, Alley Spring is still reading 27 F. For that reason, any showers that move over low- lying areas in the eastern Ozarks may freeze to surfaces, especially if elevated like bridges, overpasses, and/or dormant car wind shields. By the morning commute, temperatures should warm above freezing in all areas, so little impacts are expected, but be careful if you live in low-lying areas and are out and about before sunrise.

Near to above normal temperatures continue through Thursday:

Despite the cold front moving through the area today, highs are still expected to range in the 40s, with the coolest temperatures toward central Missouri. Lows, however, will be marginally cooler in the lower to middle 20s. Then, heights aloft modestly rise behind the exiting shortwave and ahead of the incoming system. This will keep high temperatures in the 40s Thursday.

As night falls, though, a slowly strengthening jet streak over the Great Lakes Region will be pulling down an Arctic surface high pressure system from Canada. This will pull a cold front down through our area, bringing lows Thursday night ranging from the single digits in toward central MO, to the lower 20s along the southern MO border.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

60-80% chance of snow this weekend:

Confidence has been steadily increasing in most locations in our CWA at least seeing some snow this weekend. After a southward shift in ensemble runs about 24-48 hours ago, the past couple runs of global ensembles have trended back north. Cluster analysis reveals that this is because most members are starting to lean toward the "stronger wave phasing" scenario discussed in past AFDs. In short, this means that the Eastern Pacific closed low is being favored to absorb better with the Arctic wave, injecting more energy into the overall system, and bumping the storm northward with higher QPF values. As previously discussed, these wiggles in track, even in ensemble means, will continue as global models attempt to resolve the notoriously difficult closed low out in the ocean. Hurricane Hunters are currently out in that area to sample the closed low, so hopefully our next few model runs will be "closer to the truth". But for now, expect slight deviations in storm track and snow probabilities as we get closer to Friday.

Winter Storm Watch in effect for southern counties this weekend:

Despite the uncertainty just discussed, there is enough confidence now for a Winter Storm Watch to be issued for counties along the MO/AR and KS/OK border, plus Jasper, Newton, Lawrence, Christian, Douglas, and Shannon counties. Within these counties, latest 00Z LREF guidance gives a greater than 50% chance for at least 5 inches of snow. The Winter Storm Watch delineation was actually outlined where the 25th percentile of the 00Z LREF hit 5 inches of snow (this means the percent chance of >5 inches within the watch area is >75%) along with Extreme Forecast Index values >0.8 with at least one shift of the tail. This decision was made based on the tendency for even the LREF mean to make large shifts in location based on how to EPac closed low is resolved. Additionally, there is still a reasonable scenario where the Arctic high pressure system creates such a sharp pressure/temperature gradient with dry air moving southward that a very sharp accumulation cut-off could occur within a county or two of space. The GFS is a good visual representation of this scenario with a range from 0-6 inches spanning the width of Greene County. This is a global model as well, so when hi- resolution models come in, this cut- off could be even sharper. With this uncertainty in play, the Winter Storm Watch counties were "played safe", leaning toward the more likely places to see accumulation snow, rather than the "more probable" places.

High confidence for below zero wind chills this weekend:

Speaking of the Arctic high, there is much higher confidence in dangerous cold this weekend. NBM spreads have shrunk for Friday and Saturday, depicting pretty good confidence in single digits lows Friday and Saturday night with single digit to lower teen highs Saturday and Sunday. This means we could see at least 36 hours of temperatures below 10 F. With such low temperatures, wind chills are also expected to be below 0 F for much of the weekend (70-95% chance).

With high confidence in well below normal temperatures, there is also increasing confidence in extreme cold as we get closer to the event. The Extreme Forecast Index has much of our area between 0.9-0.99, which means 90-99% of ENS model members are forecasting temperatures well below any climatological reforecasts. There is also a shift of the tail, indicating some models are even extremely low temperatures. The 25th percentile of the NBM puts lows between -3 and -10 F Saturday night and Sunday night.

It should come as no surprise, then, that a Cold Weather Advisory, or even an Extreme Cold Warning, may become necessary as we draw near. The LREF gives a 40-60% chance for wind chills below -10 F Sunday night into Monday morning (Cold Weather Advisory criteria), and a 15-25% chance of wind chills below -20 F (Extreme Cold Warning criteria). This is dangerous cold potential, so preparations should be made as confidence increases for the potential extreme scenarios.

Extended time for temperatures below freezing through Tuesday:

Extreme cold potential exists for overnight periods on the weekend. Of particular note, though, is that we are expected to be below freezing from Friday through at least Tuesday morning. This means that any snow that does fall will stick around for a lot longer. So any areas that see impactful snowfall could experience lingering impacts for several days (e.g., difficulty clearing snow). Just another potential impact to prepare for as most snow events in the Ozarks begin melting shortly after the event. In this case, snow depth will linger a bit longer. NBM high temperature spreads past Tuesday range from the upper 20s to the upper 30s, so there is also potential that the stretch of below freezing temperatures lasts longer than Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Satellite imagery and regional surface observations show low MVFR clouds moving in from the south and mid- to high-level clouds dropping in from the north. The MVFR cigs are expected to impact all three TAF sites through at least 10Z. Clearing of the cigs may be faster at JLN (10-30% chance of staying MVFR through 14Z), but the best guess timeframes are included in the TAFs.

Additionally, a 15-30% chance of light rain or drizzle is possible at BBG between 06-11Z tonight. have included a PROB30 group, but any precipitation may be light enough to not impact visibility categories.

Otherwise, winds are forecast to slowly shift from southerly to westerly, and then northwesterly, and then back to westerly through the duration of the time period. Speeds will generally be between 5 and 12 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.