textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated Fire Danger for potentially erratic fire behavior is expected across portions of the area this afternoon/evening.

- Near-record breaking temperatures and breezy conditions will occur across the area again today.

- Scattered showers and storms are expected this evening into Wednesday, mainly north of Highway 54. A few strong storms with hail may be possible.

- Additional storms are expected to move into the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. There is a Marginal (1 out 5) risk for severe storms west of Highway 65 and a Slight (2 out 5) risk for severe storms west of I-49 Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Another round of storms are expected Friday evening into Saturday morning. There could be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this round.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Surface low pressure remains in place across the plains this morning and will remain to the west through the day today. Gusty south to southeasterly winds are occurring across the area early this morning and will again increase out of the south to southwest this morning with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph at times into early this evening.

A few showers and storms have developed across east central Kansas early this morning. This is in an area of uncapped elevated instability. This uncapped MUCape will continue to move across across the northern portions of the area this morning into mid day, mainly along and north of Highway 54. Coverage will be limited with just some isolated showers and rumbles of thunder. This convection will be high based and rainfall amounts will be light with this activity.

A warm air mass will remain in place today and highs will again warm into the lower to middle 80s. Mid level clouds will increase across the area today, especially northwest of I-44, with more breaks in the clouds across south central Missouri. The gusty southerly winds will start to usher low level moisture into the area, but will be slower to reach the eastern Ozarks. Afternoon humidity values will generally be in the 25 to 45% range with the driest conditions across the eastern Ozarks with RH increasing to the west. Elevated fire weather conditions will once again develop today, as the gusty winds and dry conditions combine.

A front will move south across northern Missouri into central Missouri this evening into Wednesday. MUCAPE will increase and the cap weakens along the front allowing for some scattered storms to develop along the front. Models show the better instability remaining to the north of the area but the cap will weaken to near the Highway 54 corridor but will remain in place further to the south. Therefore, the better shower and storm potential will mainly be along and north of Highway 54. There could be the potential for a few strong storms with this activity this evening with hail the main risk.

The front will stall across central Missouri, either over the northern portions of the area or just to the north of the area. An upper level shortwave trough will move east into the plains on Wednesday and lift the surface low to the northeast, which will also lift the front back to the north. Scattered storms will be possible along and north of the front, there will be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this activity, with the front lifting north the overall better potential will again be across the far northern portions of the area off to the north of the area.

As the surface low lifts northeast a dry line will move east and storms will likely develop along the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening to the west of the area and move off to the northeast. The better instability will be west of the area but the cap will weaken west of I-49 Wednesday evening a few storms could move into these areas Wednesday evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds will be the main risk. Low level shear will increase Wednesday evening and night as a low level jet develops so there could also be a tornado risk with this activity. The front will not move much to the east on Wednesday evening and the upper level short wave trough will also remain further west, so coverage will be more limited this far east and the activity should overall gradually weaken as it moves east out of the better instability and more capped environment.

Additional storm develop will be possible along the front across central Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front again will be slow to move east but it is possible a cold pool develops with this activity and a cluster or line of storms develop and moves east into the area Wednesday night. Models are not showing very high Theta-E values so a strong cold pool may not develop so more clusters of storms may develop. There will again be the risk for some strong to severe storms with this activity with scattered damaging winds and hail the main risk. If a strong enough cold pool can develop low level shear would support a spin up tornado risk with any line surges to the east/northeast. Again the cold pool may remain weak.

The shortwave upper level trough and front will move into the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Height falls will occur with the approaching trough, but convection ahead of the front could limit instability. If the cold pool remains weak and coverage of storms is less ahead of the front, a line of storms will be possible along the front late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and there could be a risk for severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main risk, with an isolated large hail risk. Low level shear will remain high enough to support a spin up tornado risk with any line surges to the east/northeast. If more convection develops overnight ahead of the front this risk will be limited.

The main severe risk will be along and west of Highway 65, as the upper level trough will move northeast and the front will move off the northeast, so storms should weaken as the move east of Highway 65. The front will lift back to the north later Thursday into Thursday night as another area of surface low pressure develops over the plains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The front will lift back to the north on Thursday, but if the front remains over central Missouri into the evening hours, some scattered showers and storms would be possible along and north of the front.

The front will lift well north of the area on Friday as highs warm into the 80s again. Models are in fairly good agreement with an upper level trough moving east into the plains on Friday and across the area on Saturday. A cold front will move across the area Friday evening into Saturday morning as the trough moves east across the region. Strong lift should occur along the front so decent coverage in showers and storms will occur. the front will be moving fairly fast so any heavy rainfall should be short lived in nature with this round. If enough instability can develop there will be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this activity. The front could move east of the area by mid day Saturday, a few models are a little slower with the front moving east of the area in the afternoon.

Behind the front cooler conditions and dry conditions will occur this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s are expected this weekend with highs in the 60s early next week. Lows in the middle to lower 30s will be possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A isolated showers and storms will occur across portions of central Missouri this morning. This activity is expected to remain north of the TAF sites. A front will move south into central Missouri this evening into tonight. Scattered showers and storms will develop and occur at times from this evening into Wednesday morning. The better chances will be north of the area, but there is low chances that convection can move as far south as the I-44 corridor tonight into Wednesday morning but confidence is too low that the TAF sites will be impacted to include a mention in the TAFs at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday March 31: KSGF: 87/1974 KVIH: 84/2010 KUNO: 85/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

Tuesday March 31: KSGF: 62/1967 KJLN: 65/1967 KVIH: 61/1967 KUNO: 58/1967

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.