textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer like temperatures with highs in the 80s and low in the 60s to around 70 through the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms late tonight through Saturday with highest probabilities (50-65%) over central Missouri.

- More widespread rain chances will develop over the area by late Monday into Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a fairly zonal flow across much of the CONUS with strongest jet energy from the Pacific northwest into the upper Great Lakes. Some embedded upper energy associated with a subtropical jet streak was located from the southern plains into the mid Mississippi valley and was aiding in developing some scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over the area. There is some elevated instability, however we have a very strong cap in place over the region. At the surface, a warm front continues to track east across the forecast area. Temperatures hae creeped into the low 80s where some breaks in the clouds have occurred but have held in the mid to upper 70s over the western portions of the CWA. Dew points have risen into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Rest of the Afternoon into Saturday: Will continue with scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon. More robust convection will develop along a frontal boundary to our north and west and increase in intensity as the low level jet strengthens tonight. CAMS develop a thunderstorm complex over northern MO and track it southeast late tonight into our northern CWA. Energy from the southwestern upper shortwave will also continue to track into the area late tonight into Saturday. We've increased pops especially in the north on Saturday especially in the morning to account for the remnant MCS activity and any additional development during the day with the shortwave energy. Most of the convection should exit the area by 00z. We are expecting mainly general thunderstorms with the main severe weather risk remaining to our north. Storms late tonight into early Saturday morning in central MO may still pose a wind risk up to 60 mph.

The clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures slightly cooler and have dropped highs slightly from previous forecasts.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

We are generally expecting Saturday night and Sunday to be dry over the area as the upper trough out west deepens and the surface front remains to our north. Main convection should develop to our west and north Sunday afternoon and evening, possibly affecting our far western CWA late Sunday night with some convection. Winds will become quite gusty Sunday into Monday with ensemble probabilistic data showing nearly 100% chance of winds gusting over 30 mph both days.

The western CWA will have the best chances of strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday with the front setting up over southwest KS into northwest MO during the day, but then shifting southeast into the area Monday night and Tuesday which will bring the severe risk over most of the area during the day Tuesday. PW values increase on Monday and Tuesday to above the 90th percentile in the 1.4" to 1.5" range. We are also expecting storms to bring heavy rain with the potential of localized flooding.

The main upper wave will not arrive until Wednesday night into Thursday which should then push all rain chances to the south and east of the area.

For temperatures, we will flirt with some record warmest lows Sunday into Tuesday and also record highs Sunday into Monday across the area. See climate section for the current records in these categories.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

For the 18z TAFS, scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have developed over the area today ahead of an upper shortwave and near an eastward moving warm front. While we can't rule out a brief shower during the rest of the day and evening, most of the time will remain dry and should be in VFR with high based ceilings. Winds out of the south will gust up to 25 kts through the period with low level wind shear of 40 to 50 kts developing this evening and continuing through the night as a low level jet develops. More shortwave energy and potential remnants from a thunderstorm complex may push into the area Saturday morning and have added a prob30 group for SGF.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023

May 16:0 KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.