textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in mid to upper 80s approaching records.

- Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers today through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not.

- Widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. Potential for severe storms with this activity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Convection has developed across central and northern Missouri ahead of an upper level disturbance. The disturbance will continue to move east during the overnight hours. The southern end of this activity may clip the northern portions of our CWA. A few light showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two could be possible as much of it not all of the area remains dry.

Surface low pressure will move into the central Plains today. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area with gusty south to southwesterly winds developing. The strongest will be along and west of Highway 65 where gusts up to 35 mph will be possible at times during the morning and afternoon hours as mixing occurs. Highs will generally warm into the middle to upper 80s on Friday across much of the area. If clouds linger across the eastern Ozarks, highs there may only warm into the lower 80s.

An upper level disturbance will move across the area through the morning and afternoon. Some weak elevated MUCAPE will be in place, so a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible but coverage will be limited. If any convection can develop, the bases will be very high with only light rainfall amounts expected. Most locations will remain dry and may not be much more than sprinkles where any showers can develop.

A strong cap will develop across the area Friday afternoon and evening as warm air advects into the mid levels of the atmosphere. The upper level jet and better lift will be in place across north portions of the area. Storm development will be possible across Nebraska into northern Missouri and Iowa tonight into the early morning hours Saturday. Coverage in storms will likely be better with this activity, and could congeal into a cluster of storms. The storms would then likely move south. The better shear will be to the north so this activity should weaken as it moves into the area, and a stronger cap will be in place father south. Showers and storms will be possible at least as far south as Highway 54. Some showers could make it as far south as Highway 60 as the activity weakens as it moves south. The better coverage will be across central Missouri were the cap will be slightly weaker. Some gusty winds and small hail could be possible across the far northern portions of the area with this activity.

Lows will only cool into the middle 60s to the lower 70s Saturday morning as the warm air mass will be in place across the area. Clouds will be in place Saturday morning, but will clear through the day. Highs will then warm into the middle to upper 80s Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Lows stay warm Saturday night as southerly flow continues, mostly in the 60s with some remaining as warm as 70 in the west. Low pressure approaches Sunday, tightening the pressure gradient and strengthening WAA, yet again with the threat to break record high temperatures. As that system drags through a front, severe storms are expected to form north of the area in Nebraska and Iowa, coming together into a squall line that has less severe potential the farther it moves south. The SPC has outlined the western portion of the area in a Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday, with threat moving later into the overnight and Monday morning.

As the trough axis shifts over the area Monday, more severe weather will be supported as a stronger front begins to push through all of the warmth and moisture that has collected in the Ozarks over the last week. This front looks to move slowly and perhaps stall, which explains the Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday from WPC. As the front is in no hurry to move on, its presence will also bring a severe threat for Tuesday, contingent on atmospheric recovery. This energy shift will allow for much cooler highs midweek, with highs in the 70s not much warmer than the lows we are expecting this weekend.

The pattern is still active by the end of this forecast period, and the warming trend looks to make a quick recovery. The CPC 8-14 day outlook is still calling for above normal temperatures and leans slightly toward above normal precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

LLWS is the primary aviation concern through the period. A few isolated thunderstorms are expected later this evening and overnight, with the strongest most likely in central Missouri, far to the north of the TAF sites. Mid- and high-level clouds pass by through the period, with no CIG/VIS concerns and VFR expected through the period. The exception would be the very low chance of a thunderstorm impacting the TAF site, which may slightly reduce CIG/VIS temporarily.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023

May 16:0 KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.