textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold wind chills tonight into Monday morning with single digits above and below zero. Monday night into Tuesday morning has wind chills in the single digits above zero.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon as wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible and humidity levels dip into the 20 to 30 percent range.

- Temperatures rebound to near to slightly above average during the middle of the work week.

- Upcoming late week into the weekend precipitation chances (20-30%), however a LOT of uncertainty still remains with thermal profiles...moisture and timing of upper energy.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 146 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis continues to paint the same picture as 24 hours ago with a high amplitude ridge axis along the west coast and a deep trough extending from much of eastern Canada south through the lower Mississippi valley. Shortwave energy continues to drop south- southeast within the north-northwesterly flow on the back side of the trough axis across the plains and into the mid Mississippi valley and OH/TN valleys. Morning cloud cover with one of these shortwaves has exited most of the area to the southeast, but kept cold temperatures in place through the morning. Readings were still in the low to upper 20s as of midday. Winds started to gust behind the clearing of the cloud cover.

Rest of this afternoon and tonight: Gusty winds, with some gusts of 20 to 30 mph this afternoon will be possible and RH values dropping into the 20-30 percent range will bring a large area of elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours to the CWA. A cold front will switch winds back to the northwest tonight as the next cold air mass begins to move into the area. Lows tonight will be cold again in the teens with winds dropping wind chills into the single digits above and below zero.

Monday: The cold air mass will position itself over the area during the day with highs from the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 146 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The surface high should shift to the east of the area Monday night, but we'll continue another cold night across the area with lows generally in the teens and wind chills from 5 to 15 above zero.

Warming temperatures for the middle of the week: We'll see some low level warm advection develop during the middle of the week behind the high pressure to the east and developing low pressure ahead of the next upper shortwave which will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures on Tuesday into Wednesday should reach the low mid 40s Tuesday and the mid 40s to low 50s Wednesday. We do have some low pops(15-25%) late Tuesday night into Wednesday associated with the front and upper energy.

Late week into next weekend precipitation chances: The pattern will become less amplified by the end of the week into the weekend and we may see several chances of precipitation (Fri- Sun). There is still a lot of uncertainty with huge variance within the ensembles for temperature profiles, moisture and timing of any upper energy. We do have some 20-30% pops going during this time frame, but given the current uncertainty with so many parameters, there will likely be quite a bit of change for this upcoming time period over the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds increase in coverage through tonight. Westerly winds become northwesterly with another cold front passage. Wind gusts around 20 knots accompany this frontal passage into Monday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.