textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday, mainly south of a line from Fort Scott, KS to Marshfield, MO to West Plains. Quarter size hail and 60 mph winds are the primary threats.

- Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding Sunday into Wednesday, with the greatest chances on Monday and Tuesday. All modes of severe weather are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a low lifting northeast out of eastern Ontario south of Hudson Bay and another large closed low in the Pacific just about to enter northern California. A shortwave was shifting southeast out of eastern MT into ND. A westerly flow was occurring in between the two closed lows across the northern and central plains into the Mississippi valley. At the surface, the westerly flow aloft has temporarily stalled out a frontal boundary over northern Kansas and Missouri.

Over the forecast area, temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s with a mostly sunny sky. Visible imagery is showing some cumulus developing early this afternoon, especially over the southern half of the CWA.

Tonight: Convection is expected to develop along the front this evening in northwest Missouri and into Kansas with an east to slight southeast movement which may move the effective front further south and toward the northern CWA overnight. We could see some thunderstorms late tonight in our northwest CWA, but instability will have weakened quite a bit by then and we are not expected severe storms with this.

Friday-Friday night: The boundary pushes further south into the area with instability developing by late morning south of the boundary and we may have a risk of hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph along and south of the boundary or roughly south of a Fort Scott to West Plains line. This area may shift a bit depending on how far south the boundary makes it. The marginal severe risk may linger into the early evening, but the the instability will diminish during the evening and the severe risk will also likely wane after sunset.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The long term is setting up to be quite active as a deep trough sets up out west and we get into a broad southwest flow aloft. This will help to open up the Gulf even more with a strong southerly fetch of air in the low levels advecting northward into the area. The timing of the waves ejecting out of the western trough will be the focus for enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the extended(and beyond) as the southwesterly flow looks like it might continue through the end of next week.

A series of shortwaves are expected next week and will generally keep this southwesterly flow aloft going throughout next week. Monday through Wednesday are all outlooked for severe storms with western areas of the CWA having the highest probability of severe storms which lines up with the better instability axis. The devil will be in the details as the models come into better agreement and we get a better handle on the timing/location/severity expected.

In addition the the severe weather chances, heavy rain will accompany the storms with ensemble data showing average PW values in the 1.0 to 1.35 in. range from Sunday through Wednesday which is in the 90th percentile or higher for this time of year. Repeat storms over the same locations could lead to localized flooding.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours and most of Friday. There will be an increasing potential for showers and storms to move into the TAF sites Friday afternoon and have included prob 30 for now. If confidence increases then tempo groups may need to be added in future updates. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the south through the period, turning west Friday afternoon. Low level wind shear is likely tonight at JLN and SGF.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.