textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and breezy today through Monday with wind chills in the single digits this morning and Monday morning.

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday through the rest of the week. There is a 20-50% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a shortwave trough pushing east through the Mississippi River valley. Low level cold air advection continues across the area as 40kt 850mb flow moves down into the area from the northwest. Skies were clear across the area with temps in the 20s. Northwest surface winds/gusts have begun to increase as the stronger 850mb flow moves in with wind chill values in the teens across central Missouri.

Cold Temps Through Monday: Even with full sunshine today, mean 850mb temps in the -5 to -8C range will keep high temps below average with most locations only reaching the middle to upper 30s. Locations south of Highway 60 may reach 40. Forecast soundings support mixing down of stronger winds aloft with occasional gusts of 20-30mph. Wind chill values this morning will drop down into the single digits and teens.

A surface high pressure axis will slide into the area tonight through Monday. This will decrease winds however with clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass, temperatures will rapidly fall tonight with lows in the teens likely. A few locations across the eastern Ozarks may even reach the upper single digits. Monday morning wind chill values will likely be in the 0 to 10 degree range. High temps on Monday will be similar today with most locations staying in the 30s. Locations southwest of Springfield may see lower 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Increasing Temperatures: Increasing heights and low level warm air advection begins Tuesday and continues Wednesday as a strong upper level ridge takes shape across the Rockies. 850mb temps increase back into the 5-8C range and latest NBM data shows small temp spreads Tuesday with temps likely reaching the lower 60s. Gusty southwest winds up to 30mph and a dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire danger Tuesday afternoon. Even warmer air aloft builds in for Wednesday which could boost highs even further into the 60s. The limiting factor could be increasing clouds as the next storm system moves down from the northwest.

Rain Chances Wednesday Night/Thursday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that a shortwave trough will move in from the northwest late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will send a cold front into the area which would provide forcing for precip. Moisture quality will be in question and given the progressive nature of the system, rainfall amounts currently look light with rain chances remaining in the 20-50% range. Warmer air aloft looks to build back in for the end of the week with above average highs returning and rain chances less than 20 percent.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with clear skies. Northwest winds will increase from late morning into the afternoon with speeds around 15kts and gusts around 22-25kts. Winds will decrease this evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.