textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Primary hazards are localized heavy rainfall and lightning.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for today and Tuesday, with heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees. The hottest day occurs on Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures mid to late week, with rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Water vapor imagery nicely depicts the large upper-level ridge spanning much of the western and central CONUS early this morning. A shortwave trough and the corresponding surface low were located across south- central Canada with an attendant stationary front extending south through northern and eastern Missouri.

Hot and Humid through Tuesday:

The ridge will expand east slightly today, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s across western Missouri this afternoon. With dew points in the low 70s, afternoon heat indices will climb into the 100 to 110 degree range. Forecast soundings suggest a well mixed thermo profile will be present during the afternoon, which increases uncertainty regrading surface dew points, and ultimately, heat indices. However, winds will be quite light (less than 10 mph), which will limit the overall amount of mixing. Furthermore, forecast soundings suggest RHs above 850 mb will be quite high, so even with the mixing that does occur, the drying effect will likely be small. The relative greatest impact will be along higher elevations and the Ozark plateau.

Temperatures are forecast to increase further on Tuesday. The aforementioned shortwave over Canada will translate east, pulling a cold front through the Midwest and into Missouri. The timing of this front will naturally have an impact on the degree of warming; to that end, guidance has trended toward a quicker solution, bringing the front through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas during the late afternoon. However, models suggest the cold air will lag behind the front/wind shift by several hours, which should still allow for ample warming during the day. In fact, it is not out of the question that locations across extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas could see heat indices approaching or even slightly above 110 degrees (warning criteria), but confidence is currently too low to issue a warning at this time. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area from 1 PM today through 7 PM Tuesday for afternoon heat indices between 100 and 110 degrees. The NWS HeatRisk product likewise depicts widespread Moderate to Major values, suggesting those without effective cooling and hydration measures are likely to face heat-related impacts.

Low-end Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Today and Tomorrow:

Isolated convection is progged to develop within a corridor of moderate to high instability, ample moisture, and weak convection this afternoon, primarily across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri. Lightning and brief heavy downpours will be the primary hazards with this activity.

Attention will next turn to the aforementioned cold front for the next chance of showers and storms late Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Models vary from run to run in where/if/when they initiate convection along this boundary, therefore limiting forecast confidence and PoPs. The most likely area affected would be across extreme southern Missouri (circa Highway 60 and south). If convection does initiate, RAP 0-3 km theta-e differences around 25-30 deg C may support a few stronger downdrafts and wind gusts.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

More seasonable temperatures and a drier airmass will move in behind the cold front on Wednesday, which will act to keep rain chances minimal through much of Thursday. Forecast highs range from the low 80s across the eastern Ozarks to low 90s across extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, and with dew points around 60 degrees, conditions will feel much more pleasant. Global models suggest a flattening of the ridge with the passage of a transient shortwave trough late Thursday which may open the door to more precipitation chances into Friday morning. Current NBM PoPs sit between 30 to 50%.

Ensemble cluster solutions diverge more significantly Friday into the weekend as evidenced by large temperature spreads. A more eastward ridge axis would tend to mean above-average temperatures and drier conditions, while a more westward solution would be slightly cooler with continued precipitation chances on the eastern periphery of the ridge. NBM PoPs suggest rain chances are low early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The showers and storms that developed over the area this evening has dissipated late this evening. Mainly dry conditions will then occur overnight. Some isolated showers and storms are expect to develop again Monday afternoon and evening mainly across south central Missouri. Light winds will occur overnight and will become more southwesterly during the day on Monday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.