textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-60%) Friday night through Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early next week but there are still uncertainty of the exact timing of the system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The region remains in an upper level southwest flow pattern early this morning. A weak upper level disturbance is currently moving through the flow and a few sprinkles will be possible early this morning across extreme southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri. Lows will range from the middle to upper 40s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to upper 50s west of Highway 65 this morning.

A warmer air mass will be in place today as 850mb temperatures will warm to around 13 to 15C. This will support highs warming into the upper 70s to around 80, which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late October. Southerly winds will increase today with gusts up to around 20 to 25 mph at times this morning into this afternoon mainly west of Highway 65. Lows tonight into Thursday morning will be similar to this morning's lows with highs ranging from the middle/upper 40s across the east with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 across extreme southeastern Kansas.

An upper level ridge will be over the region on Thursday along with the warmer air mass. Highs in the lower 80s are expected on Thursday afternoon. Instability will increase across extreme southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri Thursday afternoon/early evening, with the heating of the day along with the cap weakening. Lift will be more limited across the area with the ridge over the region. A dry air mass will also be in place in the mid levels of the atmosphere. 700-500mb RH values will be around 15%. This dry air mass along with limited lift will limit shower and storm chances on Thursday. If enough lift can occur an isolated shower/rumble of thunder could be possible, but most locations should remain dry.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

An upper level shortwave trough will move northeast across the southern Plains on Friday then across the area on Saturday into Sunday. Much of the day will be dry across the area on Friday with the upper level energy remaining to the southwest of the area. As the upper level trough approaches the area scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will develop Friday night into Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely be light in nature. As additional upper level energy moves through the area on Saturday into early Sunday, bands of showers and maybe few thunderstorms will be possible. There will be dry periods on Saturday and rainfall amounts may be light generally rainfall from a few tenth of an inch to one half inch of rainfall. There could be locally heavy amounts with any thunderstorms that can develop. No severe weather or flooding is expected this weekend.

The ensemble model members then show an upper level low moving towards the region early next week. The models differ on the exact track, structure, and timing of the system from run to run and with each other. Therefore, confidence on the timing is still low for the area. Better lift will occur with this system which could result in better widespread rainfall amounts, but the timing and rainfall amounts and impacts will be dependent on the track and structure of the system.

Highs in the 70s are expected this weekend into Monday with highs in the 60s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Gusty winds at KSGF and KJLN will taper off late this afternoon and evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.