textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms over west central MO into southeast KS. Main risk will be with damaging wind up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. - Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

- There's a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Water vapor and upper level analysis show weak northwest flow over the area with a mid/upper level ridge axis from the 4 corners region into the west coast of British Columbia. A shortwave over east TX was bringing convection along the Gulf coast of east TX and LA. Surface high pressure was over the area with a dry air mass in place. Humidity levels have dipped into the 20s and 30s over the area. Winds are light and variable with the high pressure over the area.

Tonight-Tuesday: High pressure will slowly drift south and east of the area with a southerly wind redeveloping by morning. The low level southerly flow will help to draw some moisture back to the north and into western sections of the forecast area during the day on the western side of the high pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front. A thermal cap will develop over the area during the day with MUCAPES along the front up to 1300 j/kg developing. Not expecting the cap to break until Tuesday evening. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Tuesday night marginal risk: The frontal convergence will be weaker over our forecast area which will limit thunderstorm coverage as it moves into west central MO and southeast Kansas in the evening. Thermodynamic and shear profiles would still suggest a marginal risk for hail and wind over the area with winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. CAMS show scattered coverage along the front, but quickly diminish coverage and intensity by 03-04z.

Wed-Thu: Upper level ridge axis begins to shift eastward and over the area by Thursday. Southerly low level flow will begin to draw Gulf moisture back into the area on Thursday, continuing through the upcoming weekend. Precipitation chances should increase ahead of upper level energy which will start to push into the area Thursday night and a frontal boundary stalling out in the area over the weekend.

Temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s to around 90 by Friday into the weekend, although rain chances could lower these values slightly over the weekend as precipitation chances increase.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure was bringing a drier air mass and light wind to the area. VFR conditions are expected through the period. The surface high will shift east of the area tonight with a southerly wind redeveloping by morning and becoming gusty by 14-15z up to 22kts at SGF/JLN.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.