textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe storms over southern portions of the area during the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. Isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds are the greatest threats, however much of this activity should remain below severe limits.

- Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday, though uncertainty remains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Pretty strong northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper high over the Southwest/Southern Rockies and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance continues to slide southeast through the area, which allowed for a cluster of storms to develop over parts of NE/KS earlier this morning. This cluster has since weakened and entered the forecast area, with mainly pesky showers/storms so far this morning/early afternoon.

The 12Z sounding showed an impressive amount of MUCAPE (>4500 J/kg), with effective bulk shear >45kts, however many factors have limited storms from tapping into this. An outflow boundary continues to push south, with "cooler" temperatures in the 70s to 80s behind it, and temps in the 90s ahead of it (MO/AR border). Some pockets of clear skies are visible on satellite closer to the MO/AR border, which could lead to these pockets further destabilizing ahead of the showers/storms. If this were to happen, then intensification could occur south of Highway 60 over the next few hours, posing mainly an isolated damaging wind threat, and a secondary isolated hail risk. Latest CAMs however keep this activity weak in our area before intensifying south of the border in Arkansas. This is looking more likely, as cloud cover increases and the outflow boundary quickly advances south, hindering reintensification for our area. The Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook showcases this thinking, with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk generally along/south of Highway 60, and the better severe risk (Slight risk) south of the forecast area beginning in Arkansas.

Shower and storm chances should push out of the area this evening, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

On Sunday, the upper level ridge over the west and associated upper high slide slightly eastward, with the aforementioned upper trough continuing to pivot over the eastern CONUS keeping us in northwesterly flow aloft. During the day, conditions look mainly dry, with highs topping out in the 80s to even the low 90s for southeast KS and far southwest MO. Another upper level disturbance looks to slide southeast into the area again Sunday night, leading to additional chances (50-60%) for showers and storms. CAMs show two clusters of showers/storms developing: One pushing southeast from the Dakotas into northern MO, and a second developing over KS/OK pushing east. As these push through the area overnight and into Monday morning, they could pose a localized flooding threat, as some guidance suggests PWATS over 2.0". As the previous discussion mentioned, this would be 150-175% above normal. Current HREF 24-hr LPMMs show localized pockets of 1.5-2.5" of rainfall, with the majority of the area expected to remain below an inch. There's still much uncertainty regarding this activity, with several key mesoscale factors that need to come together to form any hydro concerns.

With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid/upper 90s (southwest CWA).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions expected through much of the period. Some showers and storms are currently visible on Radar pushing southeast, with a ~30% chance of affecting the terminals from the beginning of the period until approximately 00Z. Any stronger storm could temporarily lower ceilings and visibilities, however this is expected to be short-lived.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.