textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through this evening for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 105 to 110. A Heat Advisory has been expanded for much of the area through Wednesday, with heat index values around 100 to 105.

- There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Low confidence in the potential for localized heavy rainfall.

- Near average temperatures into the weekend, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Today-Tonight: Extreme heat continues across portions of the area today, with high temperatures back into the upper 90s to around 100. While efficient afternoon mixing keeps dewpoints in the middle 60s, the expectation remains on track for maximum heat index values around 100 to 110. The highest values will be found west of Highway 65, where an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through this evening. Areas along and just east of Highway 65 are in a Heat Advisory through this evening to account for heat index values around 105. Elsewhere, values peak around 100, which can still be dangerous for heat sensitive populations. This heat is supported by the strong and persistent mid-level ridging, which has encompassed the region for over a week.

In addition to the heat, an isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible late this afternoon into the early evening. However, chances (10-20%) and coverage are expected to remain limited to portions of southwest MO. A brief heavy downpour or stray rumble of thunder remain in cards. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Wednesday-Thursday: Another hot and humid day expected on Wednesday before a pattern change unfolds over the region. A mild start in the morning will gave way to highs reaching back into the upper 90s to near 100 by Wednesday afternoon. This occurs ahead of an approaching shortwave and associated cold front, progged to bring beneficial rainfall to the area through mid-week. Ahead of the front, dewpoints reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s as low-level moisture funnels in from the south. This will further be supported by PWATs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches along the front. The strong warm air advection may support scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front by Wednesday afternoon, though there is uncertainty with the extent of coverage as the main forcing still remains displaced further to the west. With this in mind, isolated convection and cloud cover may keep parts of the area cooler through the afternoon, but currently does not outweigh our confidence that heat remains a headline. Given the current forecast of isolated convection and scattered cloud cover, heat index values are once again progged to reach 100 to 105+. Given the longevity of this heat over a multiple day period and confidence in further heat impacts (NWS HeatRisk - Major 3 of 4), we have elected to continue/extend a Heat Advisory for much of the area on Wednesday. This only excludes portions of central MO at this time, where confidence is lower in extreme heat.

Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) increase across the northern part of the area through the late afternoon and evening as front approaches, becoming more widespread (60-90% chances) further south into Wednesday night and Thursday. Ample instability (MUCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) is forecast in the vicinity of marginal shear (0-6km 25-30 knots). Additionally, steeper low and mid level lapse rates should support a few stronger updrafts in this environment. As a result, the ingredients are in place for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC depicts this potential with a Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Outlook over the area on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Primary hazard with the strongest thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, though a vigorous updraft or two may support hail to the size of quarters. Damaging winds may be further supported by precipitable loading and rapid collapse of updrafts. Overall, widespread severe weather is not expected.

As convection continues into Wednesday night and Thursday, there may become additional focus on the training of activity over the same areas. While this rainfall is beneficial to ongoing drought conditions, too much rain in a short period of time can still support isolated instances of flash flooding. For now, confidence remains low in this potential given the groundwater deficiency and departures from normal. Most locations receive around 0.50 to 1.0 inch of rainfall through Thursday, with localized corridors of 2 to 4 inches. Pinning down these exact corridors will be best analyzed in the near term with mesoscale trends. In general, this rainfall will remain beneficial to ongoing drought conditions and increasing fire weather danger.

Friday-Monday: Additional disturbances look to move through the area on a daily basis into and through the weekend. This features a rather pessimistic rain chance forecast (20-50%) as we will have to pin down each daily disturbance. Expect additional PoP changes/modifications with future updates. NBM temp spreads have shrunk some which leads to higher confidence that temps will remain closer to average in the 80s to near 90.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with south-southwesterly winds 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, save for the potential of some scattered afternoon cu development with bases around 8kft.

CLIMATE

Issued at 130PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KVIH: 100/1901 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 8: KSGF: 76/1925

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073- 097-101. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066- 067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ066-067-077-078-081-082-088-089-091>094-096>098- 101>103-105-106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>057-069. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ068-079-080-090- 095-104.