textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Tuesday evening for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 105+.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely most of this week with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional heat headlines may be warranted.

- There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday and includes a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for areas north of Highway 60.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

An upper level ridge resides over the central CONUS, with an upper level low situated over the Northern Rockies, and an upper trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Midlevel heights continue to range between 20-25C, leading to the extended period of extreme heat continuing. As of 130PM, temperatures east of Highway 65 ranged between the upper 80s to low 90s, with areas west of Highway 65 reaching the mid to upper 90s (even up to 100 in some spots), especially closer to the I-49 corridor and westward. Areas within the Extreme Heat Warning have already reached heat index values up to 100-110+ degrees generally along/west of I-49 as well. As the afternoon continues and peak heating is realized, highs are expected to range between the low 90s (eastern Ozarks) to low 100s (along/west of I-49).

A remnant MCV was making its way through northern/central Missouri this morning and early afternoon, however with the environment remaining capped, the morning activity has since weakened and dissipated over our CWA. CAMs do hint at very isolated showers/storms this afternoon over far southwest MO, with satellite showing a developing cumulus field over southwest MO, but any chances remain <20% due to a lack of forcing and warm air aloft keeping things fairly capped.

Tuesday will be another hot day as temperatures climb into the mid 90s to low 100s once again. We've extended the Extreme Heat Warning through Tuesday for areas west of Highway 65 to account for the dangerous heat. CAMs indicate some scattered showers/storms during the afternoon on Tuesday, so we introduced 15-20% pops to account for this potential. We're not expecting any of this activity to reach strong to severe potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Starting midweek we'll begin to see a pattern change as the aforementioned upper Low progresses eastward, with the associated upper shortwave trough flattening out the ridge by Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is progged to push southeast through the area beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. With a moist airmass out ahead of the front (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) and moderate instability (MLCAPE upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg), showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-90+%) to develop along the front and push southeast Wednesday evening into Thursday. Right now, models show a linear storm mode, as bulk shear vectors (20-30kts) look to be parallel to the front. This would lead to a Marginal risk for damaging winds if any of these storms can become more organized, though this remains lower confidence as there's the potential for convection to be undercut by the front (as mentioned in SPCs discussion).

Before the frontal passage makes its way through the area late Wednesday, the heat is expected to continue, with highs once again reaching the mid 90s to low 100s and heat index values up to 100-110. Due to some remaining uncertainty regarding the timing of the front, decided to hold off extending the Heat headlines into Wednesday, however if trends continue as-is, we'll likely need the heat headlines extended one more day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period. There continues to be <20% chance of an isolated shower/storm or two this afternoon across western Missouri, however confidence in this occurrence remains too low to even include in a PROB30 group. Otherwise, winds remain out of the southeast generally below 10kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

September 12: KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 13: KUNO: 96/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

September 10: KSGF: 74/1938

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ066-067-077- 078-088-089-093-094-101>103.