textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend and a dry stretch of weather through Wednesday, featuring temperatures in the lower/middle 70s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return by Thursday and Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. There is still remaining uncertainties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis highlights a northwest flow pattern over the area with a weak shortwave over the area. A weak front was present across Kansas into Missouri. Surface high pressure was located southeast of the area with southerly winds in place. The 00z KSGF sounding continues to show a dry airmass in place. Other than a small patch of clouds over central Missouri, skies were mostly clear with temps in the 40s to lower 50s.

Warm and Dry Monday: Mostly sunny skies, a dry airmass and southerly winds will allow for warmer temps today with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Warm and Dry Tuesday - Wednesday: A mid level ridge will begin to develop over the central US. A weak/compact shortwave looks to slide south of the area which could increase mid/high clouds. Regardless, a dry airmass will keep precip chances less than 10 percent. 850mb temps will continue to slowly climb which will allow for temps to reach the middle 70s as well as a slow climb in surface dewpoints.

Showers and Thunderstorm Chances Thursday - Sunday: A pattern shift will occur as ensembles continue to highlight a large upper level trough moving through the western US. Several pieces of energy will be associated with this. One shortwave looks to move into the central plains Thursday. This will force a surface front to move into the area and rain chances continue to increase (now in the 60-80% range). The SPC suggests the potential for severe storms over portions of the area. The WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Uncertainty exists on Friday as the location of the front will determine additional rain/storm chances. If the front gets too far south then rain chances may decrease, however if the front remains over the area then we may see additional storms. The WPC has the southeast half of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The SPC continues to highlight the potential for severe storms. Again, frontal placement will be a critical factor in heavy rain/severe threats. The front does looks to meander over the area this weekend. When combined with additional shortwave energy in a west - southwest flow, rain chances are likely to continue at times. The latest NBM highlights a 50-70% chance of total rainfall amounts over 1.00in (Thursday-Sunday total).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. Winds will remain out of the south with gusts to 20kts this afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.