textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder weather arrives this weekend. Overnight wind chills are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero Saturday night.

- Windy conditions will return on Friday with northwest gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist over the next seven days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Some lingering cloud streets behind last night's frontal passage can be observed on satellite across southern Missouri early this afternoon. Aloft, a longwave trough is digging across the eastern CONUS, while a prominent ridge is set up across the west.

The resulting surface pressure gradient--along with modest mixing--has resulted in a crisp and breezy day today. As the aforementioned front continues to slink southward this evening, the gradient will loosen, and winds will subside. At the same time, temperatures will hold steady or slightly drop throughout the day, and the daily maximum will have likely occurred earlier this morning. Lows tonight will fall into the teens for much of the area.

Quiet weather continues through Thursday as the Missouri Ozarks remain under dry northwest flow aloft. A shortwave impulse will dive out of Canada and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, but its progged track should tend to keep the best forcing and any precipitation chances just to the northeast of our forecast area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Cold Weekend Temperatures:

The seasonable temperatures continue through Friday afternoon, but a series of shortwave troughs along with a pair of cold fronts look to change that Friday night into the weekend. Global models dig these impulses a bit farther to the west than Thursday's, which will bring colder air into the region. Near to below average maximum temperatures (5 to 10 degrees below) are forecast through Monday. Saturday night will be the coldest stretch of the forecast period. NBM probabilistic data show a 30 to 60% chance of overnight minimum temperatures in the single digits. Furthermore, breezy northwest winds will push wind chills into the single digits above and below zero. Temperatures will begin to gradually warm up early next week as ensembles show mid-level heights rising across the region.

Windy and Dry on Friday:

Winds will increase on Friday as a shortwave digs into southern Missouri and a 30 to 40 kt 850 mb jet looms overhead. Forecast soundings suggest mixing potential will be quite high Friday afternoon, which should allow that higher momentum flow to mix down to the surface. Deterministic NBM supports northwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph, but if this robust mixing does indeed pan out, then gusts closer to 40 mph will be more likely. In fact, quantile-mapped distribution data depict 40 to 60% probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph atop the Ozark Plateau. These details will be better resolved as we get in range of the hi-res guidance. As dry air will remain in place, these winds could result in Elevated fire danger Friday afternoon.

Mostly Dry through the Long Term:

Ensemble output suggests limited precipitation chances through the long term forecast period. We'll have to watch for the possibility of some light flurries behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning as soundings show a shallow layer of moisture and lift are apparent in forecast soundings, but confidence is low, and impacts are not expected. Current NBM precipitation chances are near 10% across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Trailing mid-level clouds behind a cold front are moving through southern Missouri this afternoon, followed by mostly clearing skies. Gusty north- northwest winds will continue through the afternoon before diminishing this evening and shifting to the west.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.