textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions will occur through Monday night with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Warming trend this week, with highs topping out near 70 by the end of the week.

- Low chance (10-20%) for a few light rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday though most locations will likely remain dry. Chances (30-45%) for scattered rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will occur late Friday night into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 124 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

An upper level ridge currently in place across the region this afternoon, with an upper level trough moving southeast across the southern plains under the ridge. A drier air mass is in place across the area, and the lift with the trough is remaining southwest of the area. Therefore, just some mid level clouds will clip the far southwestern portions of the area this afternoon as the upper level trough continues to slowly move to the south through Monday, remaining south of the area. No precipitation will occur across the area through early this week.

Temperatures are currently in the upper 40s to the lower 50s early this afternoon and will continue to warm a few more degrees this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Afternoon RH values in the 30 to 40% range will continue to occur this afternoon, a few localized locations could see RH values as low as 25%. Winds will remain on the lighter side the rest of this afternoon into tonight. Lows tonight will generally drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s tonight, but a few locations in the eastern Ozarks in the more protected areas could see lows drop into the middle 20s.

A gradually warming trend will occur this week and Monday will be a few degrees warmer than highs today as highs warm into the middle 50s to near 60. Afternoon RH values will again drop to around 30 to 40% as light east to southeasterly winds occur.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A gradual warming trend will continue to occur across the area this week as upper level ridging remains in place much of the week. Highs will warm a few degrees each day through the 60s with highs in the lower 70s possible by Friday.

Surface high pressure will remain over or just south of the area through much of the week. The surface high will also limit moisture return. The ensemble model members show an upper level trough move through the region Wednesday into Thursday. Winds may increase some on Wednesday ahead of the trough, with gusts up 25 mph at times otherwise light winds will generally occur much of this week. There are still some minor difference in the models on the exact track of the trough Wednesday into Thursday. They all have it lifting to the northeast across the plains off to the northeast. The further northern tracks keeps the area dry as the further southern tracks brings some low rain chances (10-20%) for a few showers to the area late Wednesday into Thursday. A drier air mass will be in place across the area and the better lift will be to the north so if any rain can occur it will be light and likely scattered in nature, may not be much more than sprinkles if any rain occurs at all.

An upper level trough is expected to move east out of the southwestern CONUS late this week and lift to the northeast across the region this weekend. There remains differences on the models on the track, timing and structure of this system. Moisture returning will start to return out of Texas into the central Plains late this week into this weekend. The 12Z models are trending further north with the the track of the low. A cold front will move southeast into and through the area with this system, but with the better moisture return to the west and better lift trending north it is possible scattered showers and a few storms develop along the front to the west/northwest of the area with coverage decreasing to the southeast and therefore all locations may not be impacted. The 12Z NBM has lowered PoPs with this system to 30 to 45% with the better chances across the northwestern portions of the area. The pressure gradient will increase across the area southwest of the surface low late Friday into Saturday which will result in the potential for some gusts up to around 30mph at times, especially along and northwest of I-44.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon through Sunday. Some high clouds will move across the area this afternoon into tonight with some mid level clouds clipping the far southwestern portions of the area include the KJLN site this afternoon. Winds will generally be light through the TAF period, but some winds around 12kt will be possible when the wind direction is at 150 degrees at KSGF early this afternoon and again Sunday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.