textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect across the entire area today through Friday. Daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area. Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to the Fall fire weather season.

- Increasing confidence in above average temperatures (70-80% chance) and dry conditions continuing into mid-September.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Today-Tonight: An upper-level ridge continues to strengthen over the region today, with increasing mid-level heights (850mb temperatures of 20 to 24 C). This will correlate to another hot and dry afternoon, with highs in the middle to upper 90s. A few locations will reach/exceed 100. Dewpoints remain relatively "low" in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, maximum afternoon heat index values peak around 100 to 105 degrees. Overall, a "dry" heat today with relative humidity values dipping to around 25 to 35% again as peak mixing occurs in the afternoon. South- southwest winds this afternoon, with occasional wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph along and west of Highway 65. This will support some localized areas of fire weather, particularly with regard to finer fuels such as grass. Despite this being a drier heat to begin the week, hot is hot. A Heat Advisory begins this afternoon and will run through the remainder of the week. Minimal overnight relief tonight, with lows remaining in the middle to upper 70s across most of the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Tuesday-Sunday: The well above normal temperatures and daily heat index values of 100 to 105+ degrees will be accompanied by minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s. There is the potential for record temperatures through this period (see Climate section). The extent of the extreme heat is well captured by the NWS HeatRisk product, with widespread Major (3/4) to Extreme (4/4) Heat Risk over the area on Tuesday through Thursday. Other days peak into the Major (3/4) category. This outlines the potential for heat- related impacts, with increasing concerns as the prolonged heat envelops the entire area. At this time, it appears the heat wave remains locked in place through at least Friday. However, ensemble guidance suggests the heat persists beyond the seven day forecast period, with WPC and CPC highlighting extreme heat over the region well into early/mid September. NBM interquartile temperatures spreads are shrinking and trending towards at least the western half of the area remaining in extreme heat.

Currently, the highest heat index values of 100 to 105+ degrees overspread the area Tuesday through Friday. This time period is when dewpoints are progged to be highest, in the middle to upper 60s. Confidence remains high for heat index values to remain between 100 to 105, with much lower confidence in exceeding 105. Any locations that do exceed 105 will generally be confined to north and west of the Ozark Plateau. Thus, a Heat Advisory remains the most appropriate product, though a localized corridor of an Extreme Heat Warning may be warranted if confidence increases.

This period of extreme heat will be dry with no mentionable PoPs in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. The extent and coverage of this heat wave will further amplify drought conditions over the area, with D1 and D2 now in effect for portions of southeast KS and southwest MO. CPC continues to highlight concerns for a rapid onset drought. Additionally, this could support an early onset of Fall fire weather season. Continue to monitor trends and observations.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Minimal high level clouds through today. South-southwest winds around 8 to 12 knots, with occasional wind gusts this afternoon around 20 knots.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record High Temperatures In Jeopardy:

August 30: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 103/2000 KVIH: 99/2000

August 31: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 100/2000

September 1: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1953 KUNO: 101/2000

September 2: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1899 KUNO: 101/2000

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures In Jeopardy:

August 30: KSGF: 73/2013 KJLN: 76/1945 KVIH: 75/1951

August 31: KSGF: 76/2011 KJLN: 80/2011 KVIH: 75/1980

September 1: KSGF: 77/1922 KJLN: 80/2011 KUNO: 74/1989 KVIH: 76/2011

September 2: KSGF: 76/1922 KJLN: 77/1961 KUNO: 73/1980 KVIH: 75/1898

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011 KJLN: 77/1944 KUNO: 72/2023 KVIH: 74/1960

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913 KJLN: 77/1954 KUNO: 73/2021 KVIH: 74/1990

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998 KJLN: 77/1985 KUNO: 72/2012 KVIH: 78/1899

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.