textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered light showers and drizzle Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Most locations will receive less than half an inch of rain.

- Sustained northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph on Thursday.

- Elevated to significant fire danger across extreme western Missouri and southeast Kansas Thursday afternoon.

- Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are favored this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 117 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Synoptic Overview:

A weak upper-level shortwave trough was transiting the region early this morning. At the surface, a cold front was extended across northwest Missouri pushing east/southeast. A few very weak echoes could be observed on radar; however, no precipitation is expected this morning with observed soundings showing a deep layer of dry air in the mid-levels. Broken to scattered high clouds will clear the region this morning, but low to mid-level clouds look to build in across southern Missouri in response to increasing moisture return. Meanwhile, a deeper, more dynamic trough will dig through the northern Plains and Midwest today.

Light Rain Chances Thursday Morning:

Coincident with an increasing low-level jet and approaching cold front, moisture return and lift will be on the rise today. RAP output depicts more questionable cloud ice probabilities ahead of the front late tonight and early Thursday morning, suggesting patchy drizzle will be possible across the forecast area. Furthermore, point forecast soundings depict warm cloud top temperatures above freezing, supporting this drizzle potential. Hi-res guidance also depicts around 100 to 200 J/kg of MUCAPE with this front, which may allow for limited convective activity as well. Therefore, it's entirely possible we see isolated to scattered showers with patchy drizzle mixed in. To that end, there could also be just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm or two, though that risk looks to be limited both spatially and temporally-- limited to east of Highway 65 Thursday morning and ending by early afternoon. Forecast rain totals are light, ranging from nothing across extreme western Missouri and southeast Kansas to 0.40 inches east of Highway 63.

Windy with Increased Fire Danger Thursday Afternoon:

Southerly winds will begin to increase this evening in response to an increasing pressure gradient as the aforementioned trough approaches the area. Winds will then shift to the northwest Thursday morning with the frontal passage, and peak winds will occur during the afternoon on Thursday as mixing increases. Bufkit momentum transfer profiles depict the top of the mixed layer reaching up to around 7000 ft across western Missouri and southeast Kansas, which is pretty deep for this time of year. This mixing will allow for the transfer of higher momentum flow and drier air down to the surface. The 00Z HREF joint probabilities of relative humidity less than 25% and wind speed greater than 20 mph (Red Flag Warning criteria) max out between 50% to 60% across our southeast Kansas counties. To that end, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our southeast Kansas counties in an Elevated fire weather risk Thursday afternoon. For reference, our forecast area averages just one to two of these outlooks a year. Looking at winds exclusively, gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common. NBM probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph are generally in the 40% to 80% range across the area, and probabilities of gusts greater than 45 mph (Wind Advisory criteria) are in the 10% to 50% range. While confidence is not yet high enough for any headline issuance, trends in the hi- res guidance will need to be monitored over the next 12 to 24 hours. It is worth noting that the areas with the lowest forecast relative humidities Thursday afternoon currently have no QPF from the morning precipitation chances.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 117 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A brief return of cold air will move in behind the aforementioned front Thursday night. Forecast lows are in the 20s areawide. Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease overnight, though some breezy winds may linger across portions of the eastern Ozarks. There, wind chills in the low teens will be possible.

These cold conditions will be short-lived, however, as ensembles depict zonal flow aloft to perhaps broad mid-level ridging developing over the Plains and much of the CONUS Friday into next week. This pattern will act to keep temperatures unseasonably warm across much of the country and likewise keep precipitation chances across the Ozarks and southeast Kansas to a minimum. More specifically, precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period with broken to scattered high clouds moving over Missouri. These clouds will largely clear the region early this morning, but lower clouds will build in across southern Missouri throughout the afternoon and evening, bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings to the terminals.

An approaching low pressure system will also cause south- southwest winds to increase after 00Z, with gusts to 25 kt. Patchy drizzle and isolated showers will be possible with this system, though precipitation chances are expected to hold off until shortly after the TAF period, so no mention was included in the current TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.