textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect across the entire area today through Friday. Daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area. Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to the Fall fire weather season.

- Increasing confidence in above average temperatures (70-80% chance) and dry conditions continuing into mid-September.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/

Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

After another hot, dry after wraps up, tonight will again be quiet with lows in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The long term forecast will be quite repetitive with daily highs in the mid 90s to around 100 through at least Saturday. Dew points are likely to stay in the 60s (LREF probabilities for afternoon Td > 70 is generally 0-5%), which is a drier trend that looks to continue through the weekend. The forecast dew points and heat index values may be too high Friday and Saturday. This will bring down heat index values to near the dry bulb temperature. This makes it unlikely that the area will see heat index values above 105, and some areas may barely see 100. A Heat Advisory continues through Friday. There is potential it will need to continue into Saturday, but LREF only has around 50% probabilities for heat index above 100, so for now will not extend it.

Looking longer term, ensemble data and CPC forecasts continue to indicate above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Notably, ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean temperature anomalies around +10-15F continue through next week, as do negative precipitation anomalies. Ensemble probabilities for total precipitation of < 0.1" through this week are generally 89-100% and through next week they show around 50% (but 70-80% chance of < 0.5"). In other words, hot and dry will continue to dominate the forecast, resulting in increased drought and wildfire risks with time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record High Temperatures:

August 31: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 100/2000

September 1: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1953 KUNO: 101/2000

September 2: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1899

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998

September 6: KJLN: 101/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures (KSGF only):

August 31: KSGF: 76/2011

September 1: KSGF: 77/1922

September 2: KSGF: 76/1922

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.