textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through Thursday with some records approached (see Climate section).

- Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 8 PM Thursday as a warm and very dry air mass combines with gusty winds to create conditions capable of quickly spreading fires.

- 15-30% chance of showers Thursday morning, especially east of Highway 63. The dry air mass in place should limit any appreciable rainfall. - Precipitation chance trends are decreasing for Friday night into Saturday (20-25% chances, down from 30-50%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

An energetic pattern is currently in place with a fast 130-140+ kt jet stream stretching from the desert southwest, through the Ozarks, and across Delaware/New Jersey. In mid-level water vapor imagery, a few waves of energy can be seen moving through the background flow. The most notable feature is a mid- and upper- level low over Minnesota/Wisconsin. Surface analysis shows an occluded surface low pressure system directly underneath the low aloft, with a cold front extending from Michigan down through southeast Missouri, and into central Texas. Based on observations behind the front, it's more of a dry front than a cold front as dewpoints and associated relative humidity have quickly dropped while temperatures are still climbing to well above normal, getting close to some record highs for the day. Current temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs on track to reach the lower to middle 70s (see the Climate section for more details on records).

Another shortwave trough currently analyzed over the western CONUS will translate eastward into the Plains overnight tonight. This will kickoff a relatively deep 996 surface low over east Kansas. RAP model guidance brings some brief moisture return in the area ahead of this wave and low pressure system, which will keep temperatures a bit mild tonight in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 8 PM Thursday:

Despite the brief moisture return, the surface low and associated trough aloft will be quick to traverse northeastward Thursday morning. A dryline is forecast to move through first, which will quickly and sharply tank dewpoints during the day, but keep maximum temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Surface and balloon observations seen today reveal very dry air aloft, which has been mixing to the surface with RH values between 15-25%, even below 15% atop ridges like in Branson. Given this regime, the forecast is being nudged toward the drier-biased models like the HRRR/RAP/RRFS with a continued forecast of 15-25% RHs, and perhaps less than 15% in localized spots. This will produce a very tall and well- mixed boundary layer, efficiently bringing down wind energy from aloft to the surface. As such, sustained winds of 10-25 mph are expected. The greatest winds (20-25 mph) are expected west of Highway 65. This is also where the lowest humidities of potentially below 15% are expected. With the combination of the two, SPC has issued an Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Outlook for areas west of Highway 65. For historical context, we usually get 1-2 Elevated outlooks in the year, with less than 1 Critical outlooks in the year. Therefore, the highest confidence for Red Flag conditions are along and west of Highway 65.

That said, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for our entire CWA. Relative humidity values should have no problem dropping below 25%. The main uncertainty is sustained wind speeds, with 10-20 mph speeds along and southeast of I-44. However, a look at SREF plume soundings shows the potential for frequent gusts between 30-40 mph, which would make up for the decreased sustained speeds impact-wise. Additionally, the REFS is more bullish than the HREF with a 70-80% chance of Red Flag conditions southeast of I-44 (HREF is lower at 15-40%, though it includes more moist-biased models).

So in terms of impacts, there is higher confidence in very quick fire spread west of Highway 65, but some localized areas could see quick fire spread east of that area, especially along southern aspects near the ridge tops.

Low 15-30% chance for a few showers Thursday morning:

As previously discussed, there will be some brief moisture advection ahead of the dryline Thursday morning. With strong forcing moving through with the dryline, this may be enough to spark a band of showers east of Highway 65. However, HREF soundings reveal very dry air aloft, so any precipitation that does form should be light in nature (less than a 15-30% chance). The maximum HREF member brings 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE east of Highway 65, so any shower that does form could have the chance for some lightning as well. Overall, though the threat level is minimal, and much of any appreciable rainfall should stay east of the area.

The main cold front then surges through the area Thursday evening, bringing low temperatures overnight into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Cooler, with near normal temperatures this weekend:

Following the main wave passage, a very strong 160+ kt zonal jet streak is progged to overspread our region. The jet will be mostly zonal with only marginal wiggles in the flow before Saturday into Sunday night. As the surface, the cold front will have pushed through the area, bringing in cooler, near normal temperatures for the weekend. Highs Friday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, dropping into the lower 40s across central MO to the lower 40s along the southern border for Saturday through Monday. Lows will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s Friday night, and in the upper teens to middle 20s Saturday and Sunday night.

20-25% chance for light rain/snow Friday night into Saturday:

A more pronounced shortwave is then progged to move through the central CONUS Friday night through Saturday. Global and medium- range have been having a bit of trouble resolving the nature of the shortwave energy and any resulting precipitation chances. The probability of precipitation with the 00Z runs were at 30-50%, but with the 12Z runs, that has dropped to 20-25% as the shortwave energy has flattened out a bit and the moisture looks to be locked well south of the area. Nevertheless, some light sprinkles and flurries could quickly move through the area late Friday night into early Saturday morning (15-25% chance). Little to no QPF is forecast with this system due to the variables listed before.

Warming trend returns after Monday of next week:

LREF global ensembles bring back longwave ridging over the area after Monday, which will initiate another warming trend back to above normal. NBM interquartile spreads are actually quite thin for being in the 5-7 day timeframe, showing high confidence in high temperatures in the 50s Tuesday, warming to the 60s Wednesday. Lows look to warm from the 20s to the middle 30s to middle 40s Monday night to Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few showers look to develop across eastern Missouri Thursday morning but should remain east of the terminals.

The main impact to aviation operations will be the increasing south to southwest winds during the daytime hours on Thursday. Southerly winds will shift to the southwest behind a frontal passage after 12Z and become increasingly gusty. Gusts of 30 kt are expected to be common, but a few gusts closer to 35 kt will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Observations have shown winds have begun to calm across much of the area at 5-10 mph as they gradually shift from westerly to southerly through today. That said, moisture has been a bit slow to exit the eastern Ozarks area today as a cold front moves through, but dewpoints behind the front have been lower than guidance, giving high confidence that areas will continue to see 15-25% afternoon relative humidity values across the region. Areas along the southern Missouri border and in extreme southeast Kansas even have a 10-40% chance to see below 15% RHs this afternoon, indeed, Branson has observed sub-15% RHs early this afternoon. Winds should generally stay below 10 mph, with some gusts up to 15 mph.

A brief moistening will occur overnight as a low pressure system moves through the area. During the day Thursday, though, a dryline-cold front combo will traverse the region, quickly drying out the area again to 15-25% across the region (once again, below 15% is possible for areas west of Highway 65 (10-40% chance)). With the frontal passages, winds will be southwesterly and increase to 15-25 mph sustained and gusts up to 25-35 mph across the region. This will introduce the threat for Red Flag conditions for much of the area, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for noon to 8 PM Thursday. The main uncertainty is that some areas may not see sustained winds above 20 mph, however, guidance suggests frequent gusts around 35 mph for much of the area which would compensate for lower sustained winds. That said, the greatest confidence for greater than Red Flag Criteria is along and west of Highway 65 where an Elevated to Critical SPC Fire Outlook is in place due to the higher confidence in sustained winds at 20-25 mph and minimum RH values ranging from 10-20%.

Some isolated showers are also possible east of Highway 63 (15-30% chance), but any appreciable rainfall should stay east of the area.

CLIMATE

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KJLN: 78/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 18: KSGF: 51/1971 KJLN: 58/1971 KUNO: 53/1971 KVIH: 50/2017

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.