textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms mainly along and east of Highway 65, Wednesday afternoon and early evening. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms with hail up to the size of pennies and damaging winds the main risk.

- Additional showers and storms will be possible at times Wednesday night into Friday. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall with this activity. All day rains are not expected and some locations could see very little rainfall during this time.

- Extreme heat possible again next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

An upper level high is located across the southwestern U.S. as an upper level short wave trough is moving into the northern Plains this afternoon. To the east normal early August conditions are occurring across the area as highs in the upper 80s to the middle 90s will occur this afternoon, with heat index values in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. No rain chances will occur through tonight as a cap remains in place.

The upper level shortwave trough will move east across the northern Plains on Wednesday and into the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Ahead of the trough, the cap will start to weaken some, mainly along and east of Highway 65. This will allow for some isolated to scattered storms to develop during the afternoon/early evening hours Wednesday. Shear will be weaker which will limit the overall severe risk but a few strong storms could be possible with small hail and gusty winds the main risk Wednesday afternoon/evening. As the trough continues to move to the east a weak front will move southeast into the area Wednesday night and stall near the I-44 corridor. Additional shower and storm development will be possible along the front Wednesday evening across the northwestern portions of the area and will move southeast across portions of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The instability will be more elevated in nature as a surface based cap may remain in place, but if any line segments can develop there could be a damaging wind risk with any bow segments along with locally heavy rainfall. The better potential for this activity will be across the northern and eastern portions of the area, and not all locations could be impacted especially further to the southwest across the area.

Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the mid 90s with heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 again on Wednesday afternoon. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning are expected to only cool into the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Showers and a few storms may be ongoing across the area Thursday morning but should push off to the southeast of the area during morning hours. Highs are then expected to warm into the upper 80s to the middle 90s Thursday afternoon, with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100-105 degrees with the warmest readings across the southwestern portions of the area.

The front will lift back to the north Thursday afternoon/evening. Instability will increase with the heating of the day and some isolated storms will be possible across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours Thursday, but coverage will be limited as lift will be more limited across the area Thursday afternoon/early evening.

Another upper level disturbance will move southeast across the region Thursday night into Friday and will push the front back into the area. Scattered showers and storms will again be possible across portions of the area Thursday evening into Friday morning as the system moves through. Coverage may be more limited especially further south so not all locations could be impacted. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible again where the the storms are able to develop and train over the same locations. The activity should move off to the southeast Friday morning, a few scattered showers and storms could linger across the eastern portions of the area into Friday afternoon.

An upper level ridge will build over the plains this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to 100-105 degrees each afternoon. The ensemble models are not indicating any widespread rain chances this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR through the period with southeasterly winds around 10 knots or less with partly cloudy skies. A chance (15-30%) for thunderstorms returns to the area tomorrow afternoon and evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.