textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms will move into portions of the area this evening, and could linger into the overnight hours, mainly west of Springfield. The strongest storms could produce large hail to the size of ping pong balls.

- Low confidence severe thunderstorm potential Sunday with isolated storms throughout the day. Large hail to the size of golf balls are possible it storms develop. Highest chances along and west of Highway 65.

- Severe thunderstorms likely Monday for locations east of Highway 65 with an Enhanced risk east of Highway 63. All severe thunderstorm hazards are possible Monday afternoon and evening with this round.

- Localized flooding may occur with training storms this weekend into Monday. Most locations should see rainfall amounts between 0.25in and 0.75in with localized amounts of 1.00in.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms have developed from central Kansas to the southeast into west central Arkansas this evening. The storms are developing along a surface boundary and ahead of an upper level shortwave trough. An axis of instability is in place across central Kansas into western Arkansas where the storms are developing. The storms will continue to move southeast within the higher instability. Overall the better instability will remain just southwest of the area, but the front should slowly lift northeast into the area this evening and tonight. Instability will increase across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours as the the front and upper level disturbance move into the area. Therefore there is a risk for severe thunderstorms across the far southwestern portions of the area this evening, and could linger into the overnight hours, generally along and southwest of a Pittsburg Kansas to Greenfield to Shell Knob Missouri line. There is a risk for large hail up to the size of ping pong balls. There could be a isolated damaging wind risk with a few of the strongest storms. Low level shear is weak, limiting the tornado risk across our area. Farther east, there is the potential for some showers and storms tonight, but instability and shear will be weaker east of these lines.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows some weak mid level ridging over the area out ahead of a shortwave moving into Kansas. Several additional pieces of energy exist across the western US. The 12Z KSGF sounding showed considerable dry air aloft however some low level moisture was trying to advect in under southeast surface winds. Surface analysis shows a warm front well south of the region, generally along the Red River Valley. This has set up a strong surface instability gradient across Oklahoma with some instability over the western half of the area (SB CAPE around 2000j/kg).Partly cloudy skies (associated with the mid level ridge/subsidence) have allowed for temps to climb into the 70s.

Thunderstorm Potential This Evening - Tonight: The surface warm front looks to lift north into central Oklahoma. Increasing lift from the incoming shortwave and a 850mb jet will likely force thunderstorms to form well southwest of the area in Oklahoma. Additional storms may also try to form in central Kansas along a secondary front. That leaves an uncertain storm coverage area across southeast Kansas and western Missouri which will be farther removed from the forcing. 12z HREF data only shows a few CAMS with storms across far southwest Missouri before 7pm with slightly higher coverage after 9pm, likely associated with that low level jet. IF storms can become organized to the west and move into the area, they would likely be elevated. 0-6km shear of 40-50kts would be sufficient for large hail production. Forecast large hail parameters between 6 and 8 would suggest golf ball size hail or slightly larger could occur with this activity. Highest chances of this would be along and west of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Joplin to Pineville line.

Instability drops off substantially with eastern extent therefore there is a strong signal that storms will decrease in intensity as they move towards the Highway 65 corridor. Many locations could remain dry from Highway 65 and point east tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Thunderstorm Potential Sunday - Sunday Night: There is a low chance (20-40%) of remnant thunderstorms in the morning, likely with any residual low level jet influence. Otherwise attention then turns to the warm front as it attempts to lift into the area. Guidance suggests that the front will lift north into the area by the afternoon. Widespread cloud cover could inhibit instability somewhat however ML CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and sufficient shear would allow for a severe thunderstorm threat if storms can break the cap with the warm frontal passage.

A higher coverage of storms looks to occur Sunday night farther north from northern Kansas into northern Missouri, closer to the shortwave energy. Considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how far south this activity can make it. Some guidance keeps the area dry (storms all north of the area), however other CAMS do clip areas along and north of Highway 54 with storms. We will need to monitor this closely with additional updates.

Thunderstorm Potential Monday: Strong mid/upper level energy will move out into the plains during the day, with the strongest forcing generally north of the area. This may play a role in our severe storm coverage as a front looks to move through the area during the day. There are still some timing uncertainties with the frontal passage. Depending on any morning thunderstorm coverage, destabilization to some degree will likely occur. Latest RAP guidance hints at the potential for a corridor of 2000-3000j/kg of ML CAPE with 50kts of 0-6km shear. Surface temps have the potentially to reach the lower 80s. Surface winds ahead of the front may try to become more southwesterly which would reduce helicities slightly. Large hail (potentially greater than 2 inch) and damaging winds seem to the most likely hazards however there will be a tornado threat as well given the shear/instability combo. The highest potential for severe storms currently looks to be east of Highway 65 in the afternoon. Locations along and east of Highway 63 will be in the zone for potentially significant severe weather and we will need to closely monitor the frontal timing. Also, if the stronger energy/lift remains north of the area, then this could reduce the number of storms across our area.

Pattern Change Tuesday - Friday: The front may try to lift back north into the area on Tuesday however confidence is low. With incoming shortwave energy, we will have to monitor that frontal placement for additional rain chances Tuesday, with the highest chances south of Springfield. A split flow pattern then develops for mid to late week with northwest flow aloft over the area and a cut off low south of California. While confidence in rain chances in this pattern is low, confidence is high that temperatures will drop back to or perhaps below average with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across southern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma this evening. This activity will move east/southeast into extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri this evening into the early overnight hours. This activity could impact the TAF sites this evening, the best potential will be the the KJLN site. Gusty winds and brief IFR to MVFR conditions will be possible with the storms.

Light winds will occur tonight, with southeastern winds developing Sunday morning and afternoon, and could be gusty at times.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.