textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady warming trend with record highs possible mid to late week.

- No precipitation expected for the next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 116 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

During the late morning and early afternoon hours, an 850mb trough has been progressing through the area, with surface low pressure located over northwest MO, and an associated southwest- to-northeast oriented weak cold front entering our forecast area. Observations have depicted temperatures across the area already reaching 7-10 degrees above yesterday's highs (as of 1PM), with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. Some passing high clouds can be observed on visible satellite imagery, however these have clearly not affected temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees above normal.

The cold front is progged to continue pushing through the Missouri Ozarks through the afternoon and early evening hours, however with the dry airmass firmly in place, no precipitation is expected. Colder air will advect into the region behind this frontal boundary, dropping overnight temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s. Some low-lying areas in the eastern Ozarks could see temps even lower, dipping into the mid 20s.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday as winds continue rotating clockwise behind the cold front, not shifting out of the southeast until mid-afternoon when highs reach the upper 40s (eastern Ozarks) to mid 50s (southwest MO). The main story for Sunday will be elevated fire danger, as dry conditions will lead to minimum relative humidities dipping into the 25-35% range. Sustained winds up to 10-15mph with occasional gusts slightly higher will lead to the higher potential primarily along/west of Highway 65.

For Sunday night, overnight lows will range in the 30s, with the lower end of that range in the eastern Ozarks.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 116 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Upper level ridging looks to build over the central CONUS by midweek, raising midlevel heights and bringing a warming trend with abnormally high temperatures for this time of year. Afternoon highs starting out in the upper 50s to low 60s on Monday will climb each day, with the warmest temperatures expected Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, reaching the low to mid 70s. This comes with pretty high confidence, as the NBM interquartile spread only highlights a 3-degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles. To put how abnormal this is into perspective, Springfield has only reached the 70s on Christmas Day twice in history. The first occurrence was in 1889 when we hit 74 degrees (the current record), and the second was in 1971 with 70 degrees. We came close in 2019, but only got up to 69 degrees that year. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights an EFI between 0.9-0.95 Christmas Day, further emphasizing the anomalous temperatures for this time of year. Needless to say, there's extremely high confidence that the Ozarks won't get a white Christmas this year. See the climate section below for the current record temperatures that will be in jeopardy next week.

Looking beyond the Christmas holiday, the Climate Prediction Center continues to highlight above normal temperatures for our area through the remainder of this year. However as the previous discussion mentioned, probabilities are on the decline, so we may see some relief in the new year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entirety of the TAF period. Current southwesterly winds will continue to turn clockwise, becoming east-southeasterly by the end of the TAF period. Occasional gusts up to 20kts will be possible primarily at KJLN later this evening, however winds at all three terminals are expected to stay generally below 10kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 23: KSGF: 72/1982 KJLN: 73/1982 KVIH: 68/1904 KUNO: 68/1996

December 24: KSGF: 74/1955 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/9999 KUNO: 74/1955

December 25: KSGF: 74/1889 KJLN: 72/2016 KVIH: 71/1971 KUNO: 74/2021

December 26: KSGF: 68/2008 KVIH: 72/1971 KUNO: 73/1971

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 23: KSGF: 57/1982

December 24: KSGF: 54/1889

December 25: KSGF: 58/1889

December 26: KSGF: 54/1942

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.