textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous but rather disorganized pocket-sized shower and thunderstorm activity expected across the region throughout today and tonight (60-90% chance).

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk today for isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph and brief and/or weak tornadoes. Severe risk will exist anytime between 10 AM and 10 PM.

- Flood Watch issued for 1 PM today to 1 PM Monday for areas along and west of Hwy 63. Quick 2-3 inch per hour downpours will promote a flash flooding risk for areas that see repeated storms. Total rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected, with spotty amounts up to 5-7 inches possible.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat- related impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A somewhat tropical-esque system continues to slowly churn across the central Plains. Water vapor and infrared satellite imagery actually showed a decent center of circulation over Oklahoma and Kansas early in the evening. The circulation has become a little less defined through the night as it starts to embed into the upper-level flow over the Rocky Mountains, making it become more trough-like. Our 00Z sounding confirms the tropical nature of the system with a saturated profile noted all the way through the troposphere, characterized by near 1.8-in PWATS. Deep clouds and moisture will keep lows pretty mild tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar imagery only shows spotty very light showers across the area at the moment, which should continue through the morning.

Numerous but rather disorganized showers and thunderstorms today:

Instability is currently rather weak across the area, but as the hybrid closed low/shortwave trough axis slowly lifts northeastward this morning, it will advect in lower 70 F dewpoints as temperatures begin to warm to around 80 F. This will generate 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area, with pockets of instability upwards of 3000 J/kg. Due to the deep, moist profile of forecast soundings, this instability will be uncapped. With the lack of any boundary across the area, synoptic-scale ascent from positive vorticity advection ahead of the trough axis will be the main source of lift. Since this lift will be subtle but widespread, expect "small-in-area" showers and thunderstorms to be numerous across the whole area throughout the day and night (rather than focused along a boundary during a specific time). Any subtle surface convergence boundaries that do develop would focus greater coverage of storms, but in general, expect numerous disorganized pocket- sized showers and storms throughout the day (60-90% chance)

Marginal Risk for brief damaging wind gusts and tornadoes today:

With the closed low becoming more embedded in the stronger background flow, along with the shortwave trough taking on a more defined axis, mid-level flow will become slightly enhanced across our region today. This will introduce 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. RAP and HREF members depict ranges of 10-20 kts of that shear being focused in the low-levels with small but curved hodographs generating 100-200 m2/s2 SRH. Combined this with the tropical nature of the system with tall, skinny CAPE profiles, the environment will be just capable enough for tropical-cyclone-type mini supercells. Given the environment, these type of supercells are generally capable of producing isolated brief and/or weak tornadoes. This was observed in Arkansas yesterday. Since their environment will be advected into our area today, there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for a low 2% chance of brief and/or weak tornadoes within 25 miles of any given point in southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas into this evening. Additionally, brief microbursts with wind gusts up to 60 mph would also be possible in precipitation- loaded downdrafts.

Since storms will not be focused along any boundary and will generally be developing, maturing, and dissipating throughout the day and into the evening, this severe risk will exist anytime from 10 AM to 10 PM, though may be best focused around 12-8 PM when the best shear/instability overlap.

Flash Flood Watch in effect from 1 PM today to 1 PM Monday:

In addition to the severe risk, the tropical-like environment will introduce an excessive rainfall and flash flooding risk across much of the area. Forecast PWATs near 1.8-2.0 inches will be above the 99th percentile for this time of year as portrayed by NAEFS ESATs and the SPC Sounding Climatology. Additionally, thermodynamic profiles will consist of tall, skinny CAPE with a deep LCL to Freezing Level layer. This will all promote high rain rates in any showers and thunderstorms. Oklahoma and Arkansas observed rates of 2-3 inches per hour yesterday. Again, since their environment will be in our area today, we can expect these rain rates to occur with any given storm today. For today, the flash flooding threat will not be what we are normally used to where storms train and dump rain for hours on end. Since storms will be quick and somewhat small-in-area, but numerous, the flooding threat will occur in any areas that experience repeated storm cells with 2-3 in/hr rates. Therefore, many areas may only see up to 1-3 inches of rain through Monday, with only very spotty streaks of locally higher amounts.

That said, as the trough axis traverses the area later tonight, the nocturnal low-level jet will respond, increasing to 20-25 kts. This will introduce added warm air advection and enhanced lift along the convergent nose of the LLJ. This would add some focus for greater coverage of back-building (longer-lasting) storms which may introduce a more widespread and concerning flash flooding threat. The 00Z CAM suite has begun to hint at this scenario with most members depicting a back-building complex of storms somewhere over our area, but timing and location are still very uncertain. The NAM/NSSL models place these toward south-central MO, while the FVR/RRFS models place this in southeast KS/northeast OK. Then, ARW/HRRR somewhere in between those two. We'll have to monitor trends for greater agreement, but bottom line is that if one of these complexes develop late tonight into Monday morning, a more widespread flash flood threat may materialize. HREF and REFS LPMMs depict pockets of 5-7+ inches of rain within any complex, which would promote more "serious" flash flooding.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Marginal severe and flood threat east of Highway 63 on Monday:

A lingering/decaying thunderstorm complex somewhere over the region appears likely Monday morning (40-60% chance). The location and evolution of this complex will determine the resulting severe/flooding threat into early Monday afternoon. Currently, the trough axis is progged to exit the area Monday afternoon, leaving our area in northwest flow. That said, instability will still be plentiful and any leftover boundaries from morning storms could spark some marginally severe (and heavy rain) storms east of Highway 63 during the day. If the morning complex is deep enough to generate an MCV, perhaps a very isolated tornado risk develops, but a damaging wind risk appears to be the primary hazard at this time.

Persistent heat enters the region for much of next week:

Once the wave exits the region, global ensembles show a shortwave ridge axis setting up over the Ozarks as an energetic trough enters the northwestern CONUS. ESATs depict this ridge to possess >97.5th percentile mid-level geopotential heights for this time of year. This will bring warm temperatures in the lower 90s for Tuesday through Friday. Furthermore, the low- level moisture in place is progged to be >99.5th percentile. These above normal temperatures and humidity will lead to Heat Index values ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s (reaching near 110 F in some spots), especially Tuesday.

While this is not uncommon heat for the Ozarks to experience, it is rather atypical for early June as contextualized by our "normal" max heat index of around 97 F for early June as outlined by the CPC. The CPC gives an 80-90% chance of exceeding this above normal heat index threshold at any point next week. With this being the first heat of the season, NBM spreads forecasting it to be over multiple days, and with warm nighttime temperatures in the 70s providing little relief, heat impacts may be slightly heightened from normal 100-110 F heat index impacts. This is reflected with a widespread Moderate to Major Risk for heat-related impacts, especially Wednesday and Thursday. This means the heat will likely affect those without cooling or hydration. Extra care for heat-related impacts should be exercised come next week.

The exact longevity of the heat wave is still a bit in question as ensemble clusters diverge a bit on shortwave and resulting cold front progressions Thursday and onward. Latest LREF trends point to a cold front moving through Thursday, bringing our next chance of rain (50-60%). This would "cool" things off to near normal for the rest of the week. Clusters are still a bit divergent, though, so trends will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A messy forecast is in store for the 06Z TAF period as satellite imagery continues to show a system spin away in Kansas/Oklahoma. Radar imagery shows a few light showers lifting north in the vicinity of SGF and BBG, which may impact visibilities at the TAF sites through 12Z. At the same time, cigs have been reported to be MVFR at JLN and BBG, nearing IFR. These will continue to fluctuate through at least 18Z before daytime mixing raises cigs above MVFR thresholds.

After 12Z, numerous small-in-area showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region, creating a PROB30 for thunderstorms throughout the entire period. Model guidance is honing on a potential weakly organized line of storms moving through SGF and BBG between 17-21Z. Have opted to put a TEMPO group here for the greater confidence in storm impact.

With any of the showers and storms, heavy downpours and lightning will be the main risk, with visibility dropping down to a mile or lower at times, if impacted directly.

Otherwise, winds will be at 8-13 kts out of the southeast for the entire period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday afternoon for MOZ055-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.