textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through this evening for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index values around 105+.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely most of this week with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional heat headlines may be warranted.

- There is a 60-90 % chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday and includes a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for areas north of Highway 60.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the mid level ridge has become positioned over the TX/OK panhandles with a more northerly flow over the area. A weak shortwave was currently moving through central Missouri. A frontal boundary was located across eastern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma. Lower moisture and temps were generally located just east of the area however locations near Rolla had seen temps drop into the low 70s. Other than a few remaining showers across central Missouri, most of the area was dry.

Hot and Mostly Dry Today: The upper ridge will begin to slowly expand east again today. A temp/dewpoint gradient will remain established across the area from southwest to northeast. Locations west of Highway 65 will experience hot conditions with highs around 100 and heat indicies approaching 105. These areas remain in an Extreme Heat Warning today. Locations further northeast towards Rolla will likely remain about 10 degrees lower with highs around 90. There is a 10-20% chance of a isolated shower or storm this afternoon west of Highway 65 however given the increasing warm air aloft and lack of forcing, we dont expect coverage or severity to be similar to yesterday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Hot Conditions Tuesday and Wednesday: Ensembles continue to support the trend that the mid level ridge will build even further east over the area. This will allow for highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across a larger portion of the area. Even with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, heat indicies will likely reach 100 to 105 degrees across a large portion of the area. Additional heat headlines may be needed in future updates.

Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday Night/Thursday: A pattern change then commences Wednesday into Thursday as shortwave energy moves through the northern plains, sending a cold front into the area. Currently the timing of the front looks to be mainly Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday. Given the largely parallel flow aloft along the front, there will be showers and storms along and behind the frontal boundary. Rain chances have increased into the 60-90% range. Latest NBM shows a 75% chance for rainfall amounts over 0.50 inch along and north of Highway 60, which would help with the ongoing drought. The SPC has added a marginal risk for severe storms for locations north of Highway 60. Latest guidance does show an overlap in higher CAPE/Shear across this area (and especially areas closer to Interstate 70) and will need to monitor for a damaging wind and hail potential with this system. However as noted in the SPC discussion, the parallel nature of the flow would suggest storms may become undercut which could decrease the severe threat. Northerly winds and clouds on Thursday will keep temps considerably lower than previous days with many places remaining in the 80s.

A west/northwest flow pattern then sets in Friday into the weekend as the area will be on the northeast periphery of the ridge. This will keep at least low chances for showers and storms over the area along with temps near to slightly above average. Ensemble variance increases late weekend into the following week with very large temperature spreads in the latest NBM data. Confidence is low in the upper level pattern as we head into the following week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is less than a 20% chance of a shower or storm across western Missouri Monday afternoon however confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will gradually shift from the east to the southeast on Monday with speeds less than 10kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 7: KJLN: 101/1998

September 8: KSGF: 98/1960 KJLN: 98/1955 KUNO: 99/1990

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

September 12: KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 13: KUNO: 96/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 7: KSGF: 77/1899

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

September 10: KSGF: 74/1938

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066- 067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.