textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will occur into early this evening as dry air is in place across the region.

- There is a Slight (2 out of 5) to Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/early evening as a line of showers and storms move across the area. The primary risk will be damaging winds with a low tornado risk across mainly south central Missouri. - Light snow will develop across portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening and linger into the overnight hours as much colder air moves into the region behind the front.

- Gusty northerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will occur behind the front Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night.

- Below average temperatures with lows in the teens and highs in the 30s will occur on Monday. Temperatures will quickly rebound to above average by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A weak front is moving south of the area this afternoon. Temperatures are not impacted by the front as highs will warm into the lower 60s to near 70s this afternoon/early evening with the warmest temperatures across far southern Missouri. Light northerly winds will develop across the area this afternoon and evening as surface high pressure moves over the region. A dry air mass will remain in place across the area this afternoon/early evening with RH values of 20 to 30%. Wind will continue to weaken this afternoon, but some elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the area into early this evening.

The surface high will move off to the east on Saturday and southerly winds will return across the area. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will occur times Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs will warm into the 70s. Mild conditions will occur into Saturday night as lows cool into the middle to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

An upper level trough will move southeast across the northern Plains on Sunday then east across the region Sunday night into early Monday. Surface low pressure will move east across the central Plains Saturday night and across Iowa on Sunday. The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the surface low late Saturday night into Sunday morning with south to southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 40mph occur. As the low moves east on Sunday a cold front will move east across the area.

A line of showers will develop along the front. Instability will start to develop across the area but may remain capped. As the front moves east of I-49 Sunday afternoon, the cap will start to weaken and isolated storms will be possible within the line, and chances for thunder increasing east of Highway 63. The line will move quickly across the area from west to east. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the thunderstorms and stronger showers given the strong wind fields in the low level of the atmosphere. As instability increases late Sunday afternoon/early evening a line of storms will likely develop east of Highway 63 and the wind risk could increase. This line will quickly move east of the area early Sunday evening. Low level shear will increase Sunday evening ahead of the front. If the front has not moved east of the area by early Sunday and the line of storms can get organized there could be a low spin up tornado risk within the line with any surges to the east/northeast mainly across south central Missouri.

Behind the front a colder air mass will advect into the area and temperatures will sharply drop from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. Wind will switch to the north/northwest behind the front and gusts to 40 to 50 mph at times Sunday afternoon/evening into Sunday night. There could be the potential for isolated gusts up to 60mph at times. As the upper level low moves in there will be an area of light snow, with the potential for a band of moderate snow at times late Sunday afternoon and mainly Sunday evening. The light snow will then end from west to east Sunday night. The better snow potential will generally be along and north of Highway 60 and east of Highway 65, but snow flakes will be possible across the entire area. There will be the potential for a dusting of snow with locally 1-2". Ground temperatures will be warm with the warm weather recently through Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop well into the 20s Sunday evening. Where any moderate bands of snow can develop there is the potential for the snow to melt then freeze as the colder temperatures move into the area and could result in slick spots especially on bridges and overpasses. The strong northerly winds will also occur with the snow and will reduce visibilities with in the band of moderate snow.

Lows will drop into the teens Monday morning with wind chill values falling to the single digits to around zero Monday morning. Highs will only warm into the 30s Monday afternoon. The colder weather will be short levels as the ensemble model members are in good agreement with temperatures returning to the 70s with highs in the 80s possible by the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR through the period with light northerly winds through the rest of the evening and into tonight. Saturday will be breezy as winds turn southerly once again and gust up to 25 knots for the afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.