textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog likely (60-80% chance) again tonight, particularly east of Highway 65.

- Record highs in the lower to middle 70s are expected to continue through at least Saturday.

- 40-70% chances for a quick line of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday. Low chance (5%) for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

- Much colder by Monday morning, with single digit wind chills. Highs on Monday only reach into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Current mid-level water vapor imagery depicts a mid-level shortwave progressing through the Great Lakes region. The vorticity boundary can be easily seen stretching through the Ohio River Valley, then across the MO/AR and KS/OK borders. A "cool" surface front associated with this shortwave trough is currently draped across the Ozark Plateau, and northeastward into Lake Michigan. The progression of the front has been stunted as strong upper-level ridging continues to hold strong across much of the CONUS.

Record highs achieved in some places again today:

The cool front is dropping temperatures ever so slightly as Joplin is sitting at 70 F as of 130 PM. Ahead of the front, though, locations like Springfield and West Plains have broken (West Plains has tied) their high records for the day, sitting at 75 and 73 F, respectively. Visible satellite shows very few high clouds, which is allowing the warmth, but will also allow for a tad cooler temperatures tonight ranging from the mid-40s in the eastern Ozarks, to the lower 50s in the far SW corner of MO.

Areas of fog likely (60-80% chance) again tonight:

Calm winds, mostly clear skies, and lower temperatures across the eastern Ozarks should allow radiation fog to develop tonight as dewpoints stay in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Both HREF and REFS CAM ensembles depict a 60-80% chance for fog with visibilities less than half a mile east of Highway 65 tonight into Saturday morning The greatest confidence is within the Rolla-Vichy and surrounding areas toward central Missouri.

Record highs expected to continue through at least Saturday:

While cloud cover may be a bit greater Saturday, the mid- and upper-level ridge will amplify ahead of an approaching trough over the Rockies. This will initiate southerly flow and warm air advection, allowing highs to once again reach the upper 60s to middle 70s, challenging the record highs. Increased cloud cover ahead of the approaching wave will keep the nighttime temperatures rather mild in the upper 50s to middle 60s, likely breaking record warm lows as well.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Potential for record highs again Sunday:

With the next system continuing to trend later, temperatures Sunday also continue to trend warmer with more daytime within the warm sector. Current forecast highs range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s, which will once again challenge record highs as most of them fall in the upper 60s.

40-70% chance for gusty showers and thunderstorms Sunday:

The boundary that is currently moving through the area will settle across the northern portions of our CWA as a stationary boundary into the weekend. As the next trough approaches, moisture and lift along the boundary will increase, likely forcing some elevated showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. There's still some question on the exact location of this precipitation, though most members keep much of the precipitation north of the area (only 15-20% chances in our northern counties late Saturday night). If any happen to impact our area, small hail will be possible given elevated skinny MUCAPE profiles.

As the day progresses Sunday, a strong cold front associated with the potent trough will crash southward through the Plains, overrunning the stationary boundary and surging through the Ozarks. The NBM mean has dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region ahead of the front, which should be enough for weak instability. LREF/SREF ensembles along with early looks at RRFS CAMs suggest somewhere between 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This is by no means a lot, however, with the strong flow aloft and the crashing cold front, this should be enough for a dynamically-forced thin line of convection to quickly move through the region Sunday. With potent dynamics and even a little bit of instability, the line of convection will for sure be gusty (30-40 mph gusts likely), with a low chance (5%) for >60 mph wind gusts as a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk is in place along and east of the Highway 65 corridor.

Sharp cold front brings much colder temperatures Monday morning:

Deterministic models are showing a very sharp temperature gradient with this cold front, likely dropping from the 60s and 70s to the 40s in just an hour or two. Most model members keep below freezing air lagging a bit further behind, which should inhibit flash freeze potential as winds will be blowing at 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. It still will be something to watch, though, as cold air will quickly funnel in, dropping Sunday's lows into the middle teens to lower 20s. The strong winds will bring wind chills into the single digits Monday morning which will be a very rude reintroduction to winter. Highs Monday will also struggle to reach 30 F, with a range from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Monday night will then drop into the middle to upper teens.

Gradual warming trend forecast through at least mid next week:

The pattern setup behind the exit of the trough features our region under northwest flow as a longwave trough/closed low sets up north of the Great Lakes region, extending through the eastern CONUS. This leads to some uncertainty in temperatures moving forward, as any slight positional change in the northwesterly jet could bring cooler or warmer temperatures. For now, though, most model members are leaning to a gradual warming trend into the middle of next week, bringing temperatures around normal in the 40s with lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 514 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Light winds and some passing high level clouds will move across the region this evening into tonight. Early Saturday areas of fog will develop across portions of central and south central Missouri. The western edge of this fog could clip the KBBG site and possibly the KSGF site briefly but over all the better fog potential will be northeast and east of the TAF sites.

Gusty southerly winds will then develop by Saturday afternoon across the area.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

December 25 Temperature Records Broken:

New Record High Temperatures: KSGF: 77 (previous 74/1889) KJLN: 79 (previous 72/2016) KVIH:73 (previous 71/1971) KUNO: 74 (ties 74/2021)

New Record Warm Low Temperatures: KJLN: 61 (previous 52/2016) KVIH: 58 (previous 46/2019) KUNO: 54 (previous 47/2021)

Record High Temperatures:

December 26: KSGF: 68/2008 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/1971 KUNO: 73/1971

December 27: KSGF: 71/2005 KJLN: 70/2008 KVIH: 69/2008 KUNO: 74/1971

December 28: KJLN: 69/1984 KVIH: 62/2019 KUNO: 69/1984

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

December 26: KSGF: 54/1942 KJLN: 56/1954 KVIH: 55/1971 KUNO: 50/2019

December 27: KSGF: 71/2005 KJLN: 70/2008 KVIH: 69/2008 KUNO: 74/1971

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.