textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Limited to locally elevated fire weather risk Tuesday afternoon. Air will be dry, but winds will be relatively weak.

- Warming trend and mostly dry weather follows the cold start to the week. Increasing confidence in highs to be near to above normal, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s into the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts the dramatic pattern shift across the CONUS with a deep mid- and upper-level low/trough over the central and easter CONUS. A streak of dry air in the water vapor imagery stretches from Virginia, westward through our area, and across into central California marking where the 130-150 kt jet streak is situated. At the surface, the strong cold front is currently just on the eastern coast with high pressure across the Plains gradually filling in behind. The tight pressure gradient between the deep surface low over the Great Lakes and the high pressure over the Plains is bringing breezy winds today with 13-18 mph sustained and 20-25 mph gusts. The cold air ushered in behind the strong front is on track to keep lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s today with the warmer temperatures toward southern Missouri.

Another cold night tonight, but winds will be weaker:

The surface high pressure system is progged to slide south of the area tonight which will weaken winds and keep skies clear allowing for another cold night. Lows are forecast to bottom out in the middle teens. Since winds will be lighter, wind chills will not be as bad Tuesday morning, but you can still expect chilly feels like temperatures between 0 and 15 F.

Limited to locally elevated fire weather risk Tuesday:

The "normal winter cold" will not last long, though, as heights aloft modestly rise within the backside of a shortwave dropping through the northwesterly flow. This will renew west- southwesterly winds, warming us into the lower to middle 40s. With predominantly westerly winds, moisture will be slow to return,which will bring afternoon relative humidity values into the 25-30% range. The HREF gives a 20-40% probability of RH values below 25% in areas east of Highway 65. The REFS is more bullish up to 60-80% in some places, though all its members have a known dry bias, so forecaster intuition is to stick with the 20-40% chance at this time.

In combination, winds will also increase just a bit to 8-12 mph with gusts up to 15-20 mph at times. This brings a limited to locally elevated fire weather risk to some areas Tuesday afternoon, especially in the eastern Ozarks. Due to the weak winds, fire spread should not be much of an impact, but with dry fuels and dry air, fire starts may be a bit easier.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Warming trend follows the cold start to the week:

Global ensembles are coming into better agreement on the pattern ahead for this week. The majority of members keep the pattern rather consistent with a ridge over the western CONUS and a deep low over the eastern CONUS placing us in northwesterly flow. That said, most members also keep the jet stream north and east of the area, allowing for mainly southerly winds and gradual warming. NBM spreads have tightened up and also reveal this gradual warming trend with highs Wednesday starting in the middle 40s across central MO to the middle 50s along the southern Missouri border. These then gradually increase, peaking Sunday with highs in the middle 50s across central MO to the lower 60s along the southern Missouri border. The Extreme Forecast Index also highlights a signal for Sunday to be the warmest day with values of 0.6-0.7 across our western area signaling a low-end chance for potentially anomalous warm temperature event. Lows during this period will generally be consistent between the middle 20s and upper 30s.

The only break in the warming trend looks to possibly come Saturday as a shortwave trough slides southwest of the area, bringing in a mild cold front. NBM spreads suggest just a modest temperature drop with highs Saturday in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

Mostly dry, though some light showers may scrape south Missouri:

The pattern looks mostly dry. The only chance for weather looks to occur with the aforementioned shortwave trough, which should slide a surface low pressure system south of the area. Lift north of the low pressure system could bring some light showers to southern Missouri, but chances are currently <15% and no impacts would be expected with these.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions will occur across the area this evening through the day on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds will occur this evening becoming light overnight. West to southwesterly winds will develop Tuesday morning and afternoon and could be gusty at times during the afternoon hours especially west of Highway 65.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.