textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for south-central and southwest Missouri, and extreme southeast Kansas beginning 11 AM Monday, and lasting through 8 PM Tuesday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can be expected during this period.

- A stalled frontal boundary northwest of the area brings low 15-40% chances of rain northwest of I-44 through the week, with a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe weather clipping portions of west and central Missouri on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Current visible satellite and radar imagery shows the remnants of a thunderstorm complex that was over Kansas last night has almost completely dissipated across our area this morning as it progresses east of a mid-level shortwave ridge axis centered along the OK/AR and MO/KS border. The leftover cloud debris is producing variable temperatures across our area. In general, cooler temperatures in the lower 80s are observed northwest of I-44, with hotter temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s observed southeast of I-44.

North of this ridge axis, the jet stream is starting to take on aspects of fall, with enhanced flow and energetic troughs over the Great Lakes and NW CONUS. Unfortunately, this jet stream is forecast to stay north well to the north for the forecast period, bringing well above normal temperatures back into our region.

Low 15-20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms today:

The cloud debris and leftover "cold" pool has made it difficult for any meaningful instability to redevelop today. Our morning balloon showed a whopping 16 J/kg of MLCAPE and -350 J/kg of MLCIN, with a bulb of dry air noted through 600 mb. Current RAP mesoanalysis continues to show very weak instability and strong capping over much of the area. There is perhaps some better instability and weaker capping in the eastern Ozarks where temperatures are highest and a few cumulus clouds are starting to be seen. This is where there may be a 15-20% chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two this afternoon before sunset, but confidence is much higher in dry weather persisting today.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Heat Advisory in effect for from 11 AM Monday until 8 PM Tuesday:

Models forecast a pretty pronounced ridge axis to develop and move over the area Monday as the potent upper low over the NW CONUS continues eastward. As a result of this, warm air advection and an attending warm front will blitz through the area early Monday morning, bringing moisture and hot (well above normal) temperatures back to the area for at least Monday and Tuesday. Highs are forecast to be in the 90s (near 100 west of Highway 65). With dewpoints near 70 F entering with this air mass, Heat Index values are forecast to be in the lower 100s, especially west of Highway 65. The heat is then expected to move eastward Tuesday, enveloping much of our area Tuesday. For this reason, a Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of our area starting at 11 AM Monday and lasting through Tuesday.

Depending on the exact location of the warm front during the heat of the day on Monday, some temperatures may be in the upper 80s, especially near central Missouri. For this reason, those counties have been left out of the Heat Advisory for now. However, as the ridge progresses eastward into Tuesday, the heat should fully engulf our CWA, and those counties may need to be added for Tuesday.

While in the grand scheme of things, Heat Index values will be just around or below 105 F, the heat being well above normal for this time of year (EFI values are essentially maxxed out, which makes sense as records in the upper 90s are going to be challenged) leads to a Major to Extreme Heat Risk for areas within the Advisory. Therefore, heat-related precautions should be taken regardless of if Heat Index values are 100 or 105. This is especially true as low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle to upper 70s, which is near unheard of for this time of year and will provide little heat relief for people that have already endured so much heat the past few weeks.

Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather Tuesday evening:

Once the ridge axis moves of east of our area, the jet stream will settle into a stagnant SW to NE orientation, stretching from Nevada, up into Minnesota. This will stall out an associated surface cold front Tuesday, somewhere northwest of our CWA. While the bulk of the frontal lift and shear from the jet stream should stay northwest of our area, depending on exact location, some storms and better shear values may leak into our extreme NW portions of the CWA. For this reason, there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather Tuesday. This seems to mainly be in the evening into the overnight hours as storms are expected to develop along the front NW of the area, and may push into our area later in the evening. That said, confidence is still pretty low, with only a 15-40% chance of rain northwest of I-44.

15-40% chances of rain Tuesday onward, mainly northwest of I-44:

The jet stream and associated frontal boundary are forecast to stall in the aforementioned position through the week. This will bring daily 15-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms northwest of I-44, depending on the exact position of the synoptic features each day. Additionally, with plentiful moisture in this air mass, some isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms would be possible anywhere in the CWA each afternoon and evening.

Global ensemble members really start to diverge toward the end of the week. Some members start top flatten the ridge with the jet stream and front sagging SE into our area, some members keep the ridge strong, some members bring a bit more amplified shortwave through. The averaged solution starts to bring the 15-40% chances of precipitation further southeast during the weekend, but we will have to see which scenario pans out.

If the ridge holds strong, we could be looking at extended heat with Heat Index values between 100-105 through at least Thursday/Friday. Therefore, look for any indication in the potential extension in time of the current Heat Advisory beyond Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The 18Z TAF period is expected to mostly be characterized by light and variable winds (a slight preference to northeasterly wind direction) with mid- and high-level cloud debris from a decaying rain shield. There is a very low-end chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm between 18-02Z, but chances of impacting TAF sites are less than 10%.

After 06Z, winds shift and increase a bit to 8-12 kts out of the south-southeast.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ066>068-077>082-088>098-101>106.