textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A system will bring 40-80% chances for precipitation Monday into Monday night. Very light wintry mix possible roughly along and south of I-44 (turning to all snow in the evening), with mainly snow north of I-44. Confidence in precipitation amounts is limited, with potential for some areas to only see trace amounts. Little to no significant impacts expected.

- Precipitation chances trending upward for Thursday night into Friday, currently at 30-40%. Model spread is currently still too high to put any certainty to forecast precipitation types.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current infrared and water vapor imagery depict two systems developing across the central CONUS well. The first system is developing across NE/KS where the left exit region of a jet streak is currently situated. The second system is developing across east TX beneath the right entrance region of a separate jet streak stretched across the Gulf States. Sandwiched in between these systems, a ribbon of dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery stretching from southern NM up through the Ozarks. Both systems have cooled cloud tops in the upper levels, producing stratiform snow in KS/NE, and stratiform rain in east TX. In between, where the mid-level dry layer is, infrared satellite shows more broken low-level clouds as shallow showers associated with strong 700 mb warm air advection across the region. This type of precipitation is expected to move NE into the Ozarks, staying beneath the mid-level dry layer.

30-40% chance for scattered light wintry mix showers this morning:

The type of precipitation currently over OK is expected to move northeast into the Ozarks, staying beneath the mid-level dry layer. Current mPing reports within Oklahoma have varied between sleet/ice pellets, snow, and sometimes freezing drizzle. Given observed and forecast soundings showing an unsaturated DGZ, a near-surface dry layer, and the saturated precipitating layer between 800-600 mb (-4 to -8 C), snow development characteristics would point towards columns and needles, which falling through the dry layer would sometimes present itself as ice pellets or sleet at the surface. Freezing drizzle is also then possible in areas where near-surface air becomes saturated enough for warm rain processes. That's a long way of saying that these showers are producing a wintry mix of pellets, snow, and sometimes freezing drizzle.

Timing:

These showers will lift into SW MO/SE KS early this morning after 5 AM and progress through southern Missouri into the mid- afternoon hours, clearing our CWA by 3-5 PM. Following these scattered showers, a period of mostly dry weather is expected. Forecast soundings show near-surface dry air following these showers, however, recent RAP runs do suggest a low-end chance for some light freezing drizzle within this dry area. This would most likely occur along and south of I-44 between 1 and 6 PM.

Accumulations and Impacts:

Since the wintry mix showers are initiated in a shallow layer between 600-800 mb, are isolated to scattered in nature, and expected to move somewhat quickly, any bouts of precipitation will be light and quick leading to little to no accumulations or impacts. Any impacts would likely come from freezing drizzle, though even then, it would be light enough where only less than minor driving impacts would occur.

50-80% chance for quick-hitting light snow band this evening:

Following the brief dry period during the middle of this afternoon, the first jet streak will pivot to a more SSW-NNE orientation and sweep through the area. This will pivot the snow band across NE/KS also to the SSW-NNE orientation and traverse our CWA as light snow. The better chance for seeing this snow is toward central MO, where the snow band is closer to better synoptic ascent with the left exit region of the jet over north MO/south IA/west IL. It is very possible that areas along the southern MO border do not see much or any snow from this band as it moves west to east (20-40% chance of seeing snow along the southern MO border; 60-80% chance of not seeing snow).

Timing:

The band is expected to enter our SE KS counties between 3-5 PM, reach the Springfield area by 6-8 PM, then the eastern Ozarks by 9-11 PM, clearing the area by midnight. While HREF CAMs show very minor differences in exact timing of arrival of the band, when it does hit your area, it will last only 1-3 hours.

Accumulations and Impacts:

Since this snow band will be rather light and quick-moving, only nuisance impacts are expected if driving through the actively snowing area. This includes modest drops in visibility, and some slick spots on the roads. The best chance for road impacts increases as you go north where HREF mean places snowfall rates at 0.25-0.5 in/hr, which is still meager, but is better than the 0.1 in/hr rates along and south of I-44. This paired with current road temps sitting around 28 F will allow for some light accumulation to roads while it is actively snowing. Melting on roads will likely occur quickly after the snow band ends.

Accumulations on unpaved surfaces look to amount from nothing, to a trace, to 1 inch or so. The best chance for an inch also increase as you go toward central MO for the same reasons as outlined above.

Along southern MO, there is a higher chance (>50%) for no snow accumulations than there is for a trace. Once you get to the Highway 54 corridor and northward, there is a 20-50% chance of at least an inch of snow.

As for temperatures, today will be quite chilly, hovering in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures then drop into the upper teens to lower 20s tonight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Oscillations of below to near normal temperatures thru the week:

Temperatures will largely be below to near normal through the week as the jet stream stays over the area, but a somewhat flat ridge moves over from west to east. As the ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures will slightly rise before another cold front drops south. So, temperatures Tuesday start at the mid-30s to mid-40s, increasing to the middle to upper 40s Wednesday, decreasing to the upper 20s to middle 30s Thursday, before warming back up into the 40s for the weekend following another system. During this period, lows will largely hover in the 20s, with the coldest night being Wednesday night with lows in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Next system brings a 30-40% chance of precipitation late week:

Chances for precipitation with our next system Thursday night into Friday have not increased any bit from the last 24 hours of forecasts. Taking a look at global deterministic models, each subsequent run is flip-flopping on northward extent and timing of the system. This is a physical embodiment of the large differences in ensemble clusters at the moment. Each cluster has varying types, amounts, and locations of precipitation. So, at the moment, there is a signal for anything from rain, to snow, to freezing precipitation, but nothing meaningful can be discerned from each signal at this time. Continue to monitor the forecast for any updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current radar imagery shows scattered to numerous wintry showers across Oklahoma, which will slowly spread over the southwest Missouri TAF sites. This is the first of two rounds and it looks to occur between 12-19Z. Any shower that impacts a TAF site will be light and quick, but any precipitation type will likely be a mix of snow, pellets, and some freezing precipitation that could create some slick paved surfaces.

The next round will consist of a narrow band of light snow moving from west to east between 22-03Z. Timing is outlined in the individual TAFs, but precipitation type is expected to be explicitly snow within this band, lightly accumulating for just a few hours. With the snow band, cigs will decrease to MVFR, becoming IFR during the main portion of the band.

Otherwise, winds will begin easterly at 5-10 kts, then become variable after 17Z until settling out of the northwest by 00Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.