textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect across the entire area through Saturday. Daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s, maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105, and minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- Little to no rain chances over the next week, with hot and dry conditions amplifying a rapid onset drought across the area. Worsening drought conditions may allow for an early onset to the Fall fire weather season.

- High confidence in above-average temperatures (70-80% chance) continuing into mid-September.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Synoptic Overview:

The upper-level ridge has shifted slightly to the east over the last 24 hours; otherwise, little has changed in the synoptic pattern. The weakening remnants of now Tropical Depression Edouard are gradually drifting northwest through eastern Texas, but the weak steering flow will keep this feature well south of the Missouri Ozarks.

Heat Continues:

Little change in the synoptic pattern will lead to only small changes in the sensible weather today. The slight eastward shift of the ridge axis may keep temperatures 1-3 degrees cooler than yesterday, but highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees will occur once again. Furthermore, forecast soundings suggest a deep, well mixed boundary layer will form again today, but better moisture quality aloft will reduce the drying effect today, resulting in conditions feeling a bit more humid. This combination will produce afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Extended Heat:

Global models and ensembles show little to no indication in the ridge--and the heat--breaking down anytime soon. In fact, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index depicts widespread values of 0.8 to 1.0 for MaxT but a Shift of Tails of 0, suggesting high confidence in an abnormally hot but not extreme event. Indeed, NBM interquartile temperatures demonstrate small (2-4) variability through the weekend. As a result, daily heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range will continue, and the Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday. Further extension may be necessary in future forecast updates as confidence increases.

Limited Rain Chances:

The ridge and weak upper-level flow will largely keep rain chances to a minimum through the long term period. Analysis of ensemble postage stamps depicts a limited number of members producing scattered QPF footprints somewhere across the region Saturday through Monday as a diffuse cold front dips into Missouri. A lack of strong forcing limits confidence in this QPF being realized, however, and NBM PoPs remain limited to 10-20%.

With the persistent heat and a lack of appreciable rainfall, drought conditions will deteriorate, and fuels will be more susceptible to fire starts. These conditions will need to be monitored closely in the coming weeks for the potential of worsening impacts. To that end, the CPC 6-1 Day Outlook depicts a 70-80% chance of above-average temperatures continuing through the September 7-11 period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of the south between 5-10 kt with occasional gusts up to 15 kt.

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 2: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 99/1899

September 3: KSGF: 102/2000 KJLN: 102/1954 KVIH: 100/1897

September 4: KJLN: 102/1954

September 5: KSGF: 99/1998 KJLN: 103/1998

September 6: KJLN: 101/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures (KSGF only):

September 2: KSGF: 76/1922

September 3: KSGF: 74/2011

September 4: KSGF: 75/1913

September 5: KSGF: 76/1998

September 6: KSGF: 76/1925

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.