textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through Friday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can be expected. Overnight lows will only drop into the 70s. Several daily records may be tied or broken. - Isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon with up to 20% chance. Most will remain dry.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure continues to dominate over the Tennessee Valley with shortwave energy traversing the western and northern edges, all the way from the Gulf of California across the Plains and up through the Great Lakes. The Ozarks sit just far enough south of this energy to miss out on the precipitation, though much of northern Missouri are seeing a good wetting rain tonight. The responsible surface front has almost made its way to the I-44 corridor as of about 3 a.m., but as it has dropped south it has encountered a reduction in precipitable water, MLCIN, and of course becoming displaced from the shortwave energy. RAP 925mb analysis depicts the diffusion of the front with considerable agreement among the CAMs that it will stall out over southern Missouri soon. Observations behind the front in the northwestern portions of the area are in the low to mid 70s with current temperatures around 80 ahead of the front, so some early risers may be blessed with a slightly cooler morning before the unseasonal heating starts up again with the sunrise this morning. Unfortunately for the rest of us, the front will likely not clear completely to the Arkansas border. In any case, the precipitation has been left well behind it.

Expecting another hot day today as the Heat Advisory continues through the end of the week. Highs near 100 are expected with Heat Index values several degrees higher. There is a consistent signal for some pop-up showers and storms along a corridor from roughly Barry northeast through Phelps county this afternoon. HREF paintballs even indicate this potential over a larger area. These would be primarily driven by free convection from the surface due to extremely high daytime temperatures that allow parcels to realize the 1-2k+ J/Kg of CAPE throughout the afternoon profile. With practically no shear, severe storms are not a concern (the Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index tops out at 10-12). This potential spans the whole afternoon, from whenever surface temperatures warm sufficiently to overcome the cap (looking to be around noon) until warming ceases with sunset. These popcorn-like cells, should they be realized, will be small and scattered. Most will not see precipitation. PoPs will be limited to around 20%.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The Heat Advisory is valid through Friday evening. The synoptic high pressure does not look to release its grip on the southeast and southern Plains this week, in fact retrograding slightly to more firmly place the Ozarks under its influence. Highs are expected in the 90s the remainder of the week, somewhere between 10 to even 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are also much higher than normal lows in the mid 50s. A large swath of the area is under Extreme HeatRisk with almost everywhere under at least Major.

A strong low pressure that is actually sitting over the Pacific northwest currently may be the bowling ball we need to knock the persistent high pressure out of its place. Ensembles are suggesting a synoptic pattern change by early next week with a frontal passage, cooler temperatures, and maybe even some widespread rain. While there is uncertainty on exact details at this lead time, there does appear to be some hope on the horizon with even 75th percentile highs in the 80s and widespread PoPs 30-50%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Some passing high cloud cover in central MO at the start of the period will give way to clear skies until fair weather Cu begin developing with the heat of the day. Less than 20% chance for SGF and BBG to be impacted by small pulse thunderstorms this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 16: KSGF: 95/1980 KJLN: 98/1954 KVIH: 96/1954 KUNO: 99/1980

September 17: KSGF: 96/1953 KJLN: 95/1953 KVIH: 97/1953 KUNO: 97/1953

September 18: KSGF: 95/2019 KJLN: 97/2022 KVIH: 95/1953 KUNO: 96/1972

September 19: KSGF: 96/1954 KJLN: 99/2024 KUNO: 97/1954

September 20: KSGF: 97/1954 KVIH: 95/1954 KUNO: 97/1954

September 21: KUNO: 95/1955

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 16: KSGF: 73/1927

September 17: KSGF: 73/1978

September 18: KSGF: 74/1931

September 19: KSGF: 73/1931

September 20: KSGF: 74/2018

September 21: KSGF: 73/1931

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.