textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across portions of southeastern Kansas into central Missouri through the area the rest of the overnight hours into morning. The activity will then start to move slowly to the southeast this morning into this afternoon. Additional scattered storms will be possible across far southern/south central MO this afternoon/early evening. - There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across south central Missouri this afternoon/early evening.

- Locally heavy rainfall is also expected the rest of the overnight into this morning across portions of southeastern Kansas into central MO as showers and storms continue to develop and track over the same locations.

- Heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s Saturday into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed from central Kansas into central Missouri early this morning. This activity is developing in an area of 500 to 1500 J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE. Deep layer shear is weaker around 20kt and will weaken overnight. This activity is also elevated in nature and severe risk low with this activity overnight, but a few storms across southeastern KS/western Missouri could have some gusty winds and small hail. The upper level trough is moving east out of the northern plains early this morning and will not push the activity south much the next several hours. Precipitable water values are around 2" in these locations. With the lift and uncapped MUCAPE remaining in the same locations scattered showers and storms should continue to develop across southeastern Kansas into Central Missouri overnight. Instability is weaker to the southeast with more of a cap so do not expect the activity to move south the next several hours. HREF LPMM data is shower the potential for localized rainfall amounts of 2-4" with this activity early this morning where storms can train over the same locations across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri.

Closer to sunrise into this morning the upper level trough will start to push the front and this activity to the south. Instability will be weaker to the southeast so overall this activity will be weakening, but there will be enough lift for showers and embedded thunderstorms to occur across the rest of the area this morning but rainfall rates will likely decrease to the southeast. This activity should end by around midday/early afternoon. The front will bring a colder air mass to the area but will be slower to move through south central Missouri where highs in the 90s will once again be possible. Else where highs the upper 70s to the middle 80s are expected. Instability will increase with the heating of the day this afternoon/early afternoon across south central MO on to the south. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, and a few strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging wind gusts the main risk. This activity should end my the mid evening hours.

Tonight into Friday morning an upper level shortwave trough will move east through the region and showers and some embedded storms will likely develop mainly along and southeast of I-44. A few showers and storms could linger into Friday afternoon/early evening across portions of the eastern Ozarks.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper level ridge will build over the plains this weekend allowing highs to warm into the upper 80s to the middle 90s Saturday and Sunday.

The region will be in an upper level northwest flow pattern this weekend with the ridge to the east of the area. The models are showing an upper level disturbance moving through the northwest flow Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the disturbance. There are still questions on the track of the disturbance and convection and what portions of the area will be impacted. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible if a complex of showers and storms can develop and move through the area.

The ensemble model members show and upper level trough and cold front moving out of the plains by the middle of next week. However, the models differ on the track and how far south the front moves. Some models keep the front north of the area while others bring the front through the area. If the front remains north, highs in the 90s could continue into the middle of next week, if the front moves further south highs in the 80s and some shower and thunderstorm chances will occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed from south central Kansas into central Missouri this evening. This activity will generally remain north of the TAF sites, but an isolated shower/storm around sunrise will be possible. This activity will then move south across the area as a front moves into the area, with showers and embedded scattered thunderstorms Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. The activity will overall be weakening as it moves south into the area. Scattered thunderstorm develop will again be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. mainly southeast of the TAF sites but could clip the KBBG site. MVFR conditions will occur with thunderstorms and heavier showers.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.