textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning along a corridor roughly from the Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat indices near/around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this area. Heat Advisory issued for locations further south and east with daily heat indicies around 100. - Rain chances return Wednesday through Saturday (30-50%), especially north of Interstate 44 however confidence remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show an upper level ridge across the southwest US. There was a weak disturbance moving southeast into northwest Missouri where some scattered showers were occuring. Temperatures remained very warm with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area. Locations across south central Missouri have dropped into the lower 70s. The 00z KSGF sounding showed an unstable but capped airmass across the area along with mid level dry air.

Hot Today - Morning Sprinkles North?: The weak disturbance will continue moving southeast towards the area this morning. While CAMS indicate a weakening/dissipating area of showers moving towards the area, we think there is a chance for some sprinkles across the Truman Lake and Lake of the Ozarks areas. Most locations will remain dry with some increased high clouds.

Clouds look to thin out by afternoon and expect temps to soar into the 90s across most of the area. 850mb temps in the lower 20's Celsius will support highs in the middle to upper 90s west of Highway 65 with slowly decreasing temps to the east. Winds will be a little more noticeable than yesterday with some stronger mixing occuring. This will cause dew points to drop into the upper 60s however some areas will still remain around 70. This looks to create afternoon heat indicies around 100 across most of the area. Higher locations along the Ozark Plateau may mix out a bit more with slightly lower dewpoints.

While Joplin reached a high of 96 with a 103 heat index yesterday, most of the area will begin to feel that type of heat today and will last most of the week (more on that below). Therefore we converted the Excessive Heat Watch to a Warning and made the rest of the area into a Heat Advisory today through Wednesday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Extreme Heat: As discussed above, it will be a hot week as mid level heights and 850mb temps slowly increase. We will need to monitor clouds/sprinkle chances again early Monday morning however not seeing much impact currently. Daily temps look to reach the middle to upper 90s across a large portion of the area however temps may approach or even exceed 100 degrees in the Joplin/SE Kansas area. Typically the rule of thumb to reach 100 degrees is that dry vegetation/antecedent conditions are needed (brown grass rule) and this is certainly true in that area. Therefore given highs approaching 100, it wont take much for heat indicies to come close to or exceed 105. Therefore the highest confidence for locations to reach heat indicies around 105 is in the warning area. Locations along the spine of the Ozark Plateau typically mix out a little more. Guidance continues to suggest a slightly higher moisture axis around the Table Rock Lake/Branson area with potential for heat indicies to reach 105+ in that area. Not confident in that but will need to monitor mixing in that area over the next day or two to see if that trend decreases. Additional modifications to the Warning and Advisory are certainly possible this week.

The other factor into the Warning/Advisory decision is the very warm overnight lows. Lows in the lower 80s look to occur across portions of the warning area early this week as winds remain steady. This can sometimes be just as impactful as the daytime heat indicies. The latest NWS Heat Risk tool shows the entire area in the Major category with now a few pixels of the Extreme category by Tuesday. Heat sensitive groups will need to take proper precautions.

We will need to monitor how fast the ridge breaks down past Wednesday. Latest ensembles suggest that the ridge may hold on for Thursday and Friday and portions of the area could see heat product extensions however confidence is low at this time.

Rain Chances: As just mentioned, the ridge will be attempting to break down mid/late week. This would allow for rain chances to return to the area however the highest chances remain just north of the area, closer to shortwave energy. Would expect additional modifications to precip chances depending on the placement/strength of the ridge.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with passing high clouds at times. Winds will gradually increase out of the southwest during the day with gusts to 20kts. There is the potential for low level wind shear at JLN and SGF late tonight into Monday morning but the potential is too limited to include at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070- 071-081>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.