textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is a high degree of uncertainty on if this systems tracks through southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

- The active weather pattern persists through the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. A flood risk may become apparent given recent heavy rainfall and saturated soils.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Satellite imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough axis centered over the region early this afternoon with broken to overcast cloud cover. At the surface, the cold front associated with last night's convection has settled south of the MO/AR border.

High 0-1 km RH, upward omega, IFR ceilings, and a lack of cloud ice have promoted patchy drizzle formation this morning. This potential should wind down throughout the afternoon as the front continues to sag south through Arkansas and lift decreases. Very weak shortwave energy translating across the Plains may result in some low-end precipitation chances (20-30%) across extreme western Missouri and southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon; otherwise, mostly dry weather will persist through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Summertime MCS Season Continues:

Global models depict broad, low-amplitude ridging developing across the western CONUS early this week. With a belt of enhanced 500 mb flow and warm, moist air remaining in place across the Plains, the environment will be favorable for the continuation of an active weather pattern throughout the week. While models typically struggle in accurately resolving the location and longevity of summertime MCSs, the envelope is unusually large even in the Day 1-3 period, featuring drastically different solutions in the timing, magnitude, and location of thunderstorm and MCS details.

For the Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning period, initial convective development is likely across portions of the High Plains. Models do generally agree in growing these storms upscale and forming into a southeastward moving MCS. Beyond that, however, solutions vary. A glance at REFS and HREF paintballs reveals a slight majority of members tends to track the MCS through south-central Kansas into Oklahoma early Wednesday morning, but a few depict a possible MCV forming and pivoting to the east into western Missouri, following the more eastward-pointing Corfidi vectors. Should this system track into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, a risk for severe storms-- primarily damaging straight- line winds-- may become apparent. Indeed, SPC has outlined southwest portions of the CWA in a Marginal severe weather outlook, citing similar concerns in forecast uncertainty.

Ensembles depict the upper-level pattern becoming more zonal by Thursday as a series of additional shortwaves move across the United States. Chances for additional showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday are moderate to high (60-85%) as a result. Furthermore, high rain rates and the potential for training thunderstorms over already-saturated soils will pose additional risks for flash flooding each day Tuesday night through Friday.

NBM 72-hr Rainfall Prob Exceedance Wed-Fri: Prob >1 inch: 60-90% Prob >2 inch: 40-60% Prob >3 inch: 20-40%

Pattern Change Next Week:

Cluster analysis suggests a pattern change may finally come late this week or early next week as higher-amplitude flow develops across the county. In particular, a building ridge over the Missouri Ozarks will allow temperatures to climb and precipitation chances to fall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A stratus deck with MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings will persist through the first part of the TAF period however conditions should actually improve somewhat overnight. MVFR ceilings however will likely remain, especially at BBG where some patchy fog may also form by 12z. Winds will remain light out of the northeast with a gradual switch to the southeast on Tuesday morning. Ceilings will likely bounce around on Tuesday with some MVFR likely at JLN and BBG. There is a low chance of thunderstorms towards the end of the TAF period at JLN however confidence is too low to include at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.