textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 15-30% chance of light rain or drizzle southeast of I-44 late tonight. A lower (<15%) chance exists for some meager icing on elevated surfaces in the eastern Ozarks.

- Upcoming weekend precipitation chances (40-70%). There is increasing confidence in seeing snow, but uncertainty remains in the track of the system and potential snow amounts.

- Higher confidence in well below normal temperatures. Single digit lows with wind chills below zero will be likely each morning this weekend (60-80% chance).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Surface low pressure is located across the central Plains as an area of surface high pressure moves off to the east of the area. South to southwesterly winds are occurring across the area this afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 25mph occurring at times the rest of this afternoon into early this evening. Temperatures will continue to warm into the low to middle 40s the rest of this afternoon. A dry air mass is also in place across the area with RH values around 20 to 30% occurring this afternoon. This will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions the rest of this afternoon.

This evening temperatures will likely cool off fairly quickly then hold steady if not warm overnight in Wednesday morning as southerly flow and moisture return starts to occur ahead of the approaching low. The surface low will move northeast into northern Missouri tonight with an associated front moving southeast through the area tonight into Wednesday morning. Moisture will start to advect north ahead of the low, which is currently located in southern Texas. So, the moisture still has a way to make it to get into the area. Therefore, its possible the better moisture return remains south of the area before the front/upper level trough tonight. If the moisture return does make it into the area it will likely only move into the far southern portions of the area. There will be lift with the front and an upper level trough that moves across the area, so if the moisture can make it into the area some light rain, and more likely drizzle, will be possible. The mid levels of atmosphere will remain dry limiting cloud ice through for it will likely be more drizzle in nature and remain light. Temperatures will likely cool to around 30 degrees across south central MO. Temperatures will likely warm as precipitation begins but there could be a brief window where temperatures are at or below freezing, but no impacts are expected as the precipitation remains really light and overall the better chances remain south where warmer temperatures will be in place. If the moisture return is slower and remains south of the area, the rain/drizzle potential will also decrease with only a 10 to 30% chance of occurring currently and if it can occur there is only 10% of a brief period of freezing drizzle occurring, again no impacts are expected.

The air mass behind the front will not be much cooler as highs still warm into the 40s Wednesday and Thursday. Lighter winds will occur on Thursday as surface high pressure moves over the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

An upper level low will move south into the Great Lakes region Thursday night and will send an area of surface high pressure and a much colder air mass south into the area on Friday with gusty northerly winds. This much colder air mass will then remain over the area through the weekend into early next week. Wind chill values will likely drop below zero on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. If snow can occur across the area temperatures may be even colder this weekend.

Precipitation will also occur with the system. The cold front will push well south of the area on Friday and preciptiation will start to form and move northeast Friday into Saturday along the front. Behind the front the ensemble model members continue to support a deep cold air mass and if any preciptiation develops it would be all snow, though a brief period of sleet could be possible on the onset as dry air is overcome. Models are coming in better agreement that the center and heavy preciptiation will setup south of the area again closer to the front. There will be the potential for the northern edge of this precipitation impacting the area late Friday into Saturday morning. There could be a tight gradient in wintry amounts to the north and possible much remains south of the area and also could see some snow into at least southern Missouri. There is also potential the system could still move to the north or south some which would impact snowfall potential for the area.

Models still differ though this weekend with the second wave that will move through the region this weekend. An upper level low will dig south off the west coast through late this week then move to the east this weekend. The models differ on the track of this low, between the upper level low moving east remaining well south of the area, to the upper level low phasing with the northern trough and moving northeast through the area, with several solutions in between. The more southerly track will again keep the bulk of the snow south of the area with the northern track bringing snow further north across much of the area. A much colder air mass will be in place so this would be a dry snow. There remains a large spread in the models on snow amounts between the members, with the 10 percentile or low end amount currently indicating the accumulating snow remaining south of the area to the 90 percentile, higher end amounts showing the potential for several inches of snow. Still too early for specific snowfall amounts for the area with the uncertainties as the system is still off the west coast and not being sampled yet so changes are still likely to the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions and a clear sky will continue into the evening, but we could start to see some moisture increase from the south over south central MO overnight. Have kept clouds in the VFR level, but may need to watch BBG overnight for some MVFR ceilings. Low level wind shear looks like the biggest aviation hazard tonight with up to 50 kts of shear in the lowest 2000 feet.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.