textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and drizzle overnight into Saturday morning. Visibilities could drop to below one mile at times.

- Rain with embedded scattered thunderstorms will move across the area from west to east mid morning Saturday into Saturday evening. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall possible.

- Lower chances (10-40%) of rain on Sunday and Memorial Day mainly south of I-44. Many locations will remain dry.

- Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

An upper level disturbance is currently lifting northeast through the region this afternoon. Some light rain showers have developed ahead of the disturbance. Some weak MUCAPE (around 500 J/kg) is developing generally along and west of I-49 this afternoon. Some scattered moderate rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible this afternoon for these locations. The upper level trough will push northeast this evening into tonight. Cloud ice will weaken and deep layer lift will be weaker so the coverage is rain will decrease this evening and tonight. The weak MUCAPE will remain in place overnight across the far west so some isolated showers and may be a rumble of thunder possible but coverage will be limited.

Low level moisture will remain in place overnight into Saturday morning along with low level clouds. Some fog will be possible overnight, will likely be more a of stratus build down more than radiational fog, so visibilities may be lower on the plateau. The also could be some be periods of drizzle overnight into Saturday morning as the inversion sets up. Visibilities could drop below one mile at times. An upper level trough will move east across the Plains on Saturday and across the region Saturday night. Uncapped MUCAPE values of 500 to 1200 J/kg will develop across the area ahead of the trough Saturday morning into the evening hours. A weak surface front will also drop into the area with the trough. As lift develops across the area with the trough showers will drop across southeastern Kansas Saturday morning and move from west to east across the area into the evening hours. With the MUCAPE in place there will be scattered storms embedded within the showers. Shear will not be overly strong so not expecting severe weather. Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.25 to 1" range but there will be localized heavy rainfall around 2 to 3" possible with the the storms.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The upper level trough will move east across the region on Saturday night and Sunday. There is a low chance for an isolated shower south of I-44 and east of Highway 65 on Sunday as the trough moves through but most locations should remain dry. On Monday as upper level disturbance will move across Arkansas some lift may push into portions of south central Missouri where and isolated shower will be possible, but again most locations will likely remain dry on Sunday and Monday.

The upper level low will move over the region on Tuesday and remain over the central U.S. through much of next week. The upper level low will wobble across the region. As waves move across the area there will be periods of rain that develops, there could be some rumbles of thunder at times but no severe weather is expected. There will be dry periods as the low rotates across the region, but more waves will move back in. Overall light rain with pockets of moderate rainfall will occur at times with this system.

Highs next week will be dependent on the timing of waves of rain, as if more clouds and rain occur highs in the lower to middle 70s would be likely, on days with more sun upper 70s to lower 80s could be expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will be ongoing at the start of the TAF period. Scattered light showers moving through southern Missouri may intermittently reduce ceilings and visibilities to IFR or lower conditions this afternoon. Ceilings will then improve throughout the late afternoon and evening to VFR levels.

Overnight, the stratus deck is forecast to build down once again and may be associated with patchy drizzle that results in brief periods of IFR or lower conditions.

Light northeast winds this afternoon will gradually shift to the south after 00Z, generally remaining less than 10 kt through the forecast period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.