textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms over west central MO into southeast KS this evening. Main risk will be with damaging wind up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. - Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

- There's a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Skies are clear early this morning with low temperatures in the mid 50s. Across the Springfield area, there has been smoke on the western side of the city for most of the day and has lingered overnight due to the light winds and likely inversion that is in place. Visibilities have been reduced on this side of the city and have dipped as low as 4 miles according to the SGF observation sensor. If you have been impacted by this localized smoke, relief is hopefully on the way with the increase in pressure gradient later today. Southwesterly winds will gust around 25 to 30 mph by late morning. Moisture return will be slow today and our dewpoints will struggle to get our of the 40s and 50s.

This dry air will limit our chance to see severe weather this evening. Looking at model soundings over the Joplin area where the environment is the most favorable, there is abundant dry air at the low and mid levels that the storms will have to overcome. We could still see an isolated severe storm or two over the Marginal risk (1/5) area, but even in that area the cap may be too strong for a severe storm to develop. Main hazards for today with any storm that becomes severe would be quarter sized hail and 60 mph damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat likely went away due to lack of instability and low-level moisture. LCL heights are only marginally favorable near 1300m across the area. As for timing and chance of precipitation, there's a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms moving into our CWA near sunset (5-7pm). The cold front will move northwest to southeast and will push out of the area near 10pm-12am.

Wednesday will be sunny and warm with northerly winds. Highs will reach the mid 70s and dewpoints will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s making for a pleasant day. Wind start to turn southerly again on Wednesday night and cloud cover will move in from west to east. Expect lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mid-level high pressure will move into the Central Plains and bring us warm temperatures to end the week. Highs will creep into the mid 80s for Thursday and through the weekend. Dewpoints rise into the mid 60s by Friday and stay elevated through the weekend. This will make it feel hot and humid and give us an early taste of summer. There are also a few chances for rain this weekend as a surface low begins to slowly work its way towards us, traversing over the Southern Plains. Right now, there's a 20-40% chance for rain across the area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. Also should note, if the clouds are thick enough with those rain chances, we may be a couple of degrees cooler than forecasted this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Nearby smoke at SGF has led to lowered visibilities around 4 to 6 SM with haze and MVFR ceilings. Smoke may linger through the morning until winds can become gusty enough over the next few hours to help disperse the smoke. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are expected elsewhere. Southwesterly winds will gust to 20 knots by the late morning hours.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.