textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A stationary front will present 30-60% chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms west of Highway 65 intermittently today. A couple heavy downpours and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms this afternoon.

- Highest thunderstorm chances (40-80%) occur tonight through Friday. Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Friday, mainly east of I-49. All hazards possible including heavy rainfall.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Residual showers from the stationary front that's positioned below the state line are continuing to diminish early this morning. What's left is scattered clouds over the western portion of the state as the better convection occurs closer to the surface low over the CO/KS border. Temperatures are currently in the 70s with highs forecast to be a few degrees cooler today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few places in SE KS did end up hitting Heat Advisory criteria yesterday, (HI at 105 degrees or higher) but with the residual cloud cover expected to persist today combined with the cooler temperatures, we will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory today. The uncertainty is too high with the clouds lingering around. There may not be widespread heat index values hitting over 105 degrees today. Though, it will still feel warm over SE KS/SW MO as the heat index could still reach the lower 100s. The rest of the area will be in the 90s. As for rain today, the synoptic/ mesoscale set up will look similar to yesterday. Another small shortwave will move through and spark a few showers and thunderstorms over the area with better moisture (SE KS/SW MO). This area is already seeing dewpoints in the 70s which is almost 10 degrees higher than areas over in the eastern portion of the CWA. Rain chances increase (30-60%) this morning over that area and remain elevated through the rest of the daylight hours. No widespread severe weather is expected, and not everyone will see rain. These thunderstorms will be scattered in nature and may produce brief heavy downpours and lightning.

There will be a break in the rain after sunset, but then rain chances return overnight. The surface low begins to move into northern MO around midnight with rain chances increasing to 40-80% overnight. This system will linger throughout Friday and bring the highest rain chances to areas along and north of Hwy 60. Even with the highest rain chances remaining mostly north, the risk for severe weather will still be present mostly everywhere in our area. Think of this system as two waves for Friday. We'll have the warm front lift north and bring us rain in the morning, then we'll have the actual cold front come through in the afternoon, and that's where our severe risk is mentioned. SPC still has a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather issued for most of our area excluding the SE KS counties. All hazards are possible with this system with a tornado or two, 60 mph winds, and hail up to ping pong size (1.5") in the stronger storms. These hazards are primarily for any supercells that can develop Friday afternoon. Once the storm type changes into more of an MCS-type structure, then heavy rain and wind will be the primary hazards. There is still a bit of uncertainty on how strong these storms will be because the best instability and shear values won't necessarily line up perfectly over our area on Friday and the morning activity will impact the afternoon convection. Better instability is further west of the better shear which is out over eastern MO. SPC also mentions these uncertainties in the forecast which is why no upgrade to a Slight risk has been added, and may not be added if not deemed necessary. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly exit the area Friday night. Rainfall totals will be near 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts. These higher totals will be primarily over eastern MO. WPC has issued a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over this area which lies north of Hwy 60 and east of Hwy 65.

Temperatures for Thursday night will be in the 70s with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area for Friday. There still is the possibility for the need for a Heat Advisory on Friday if the confidence is there. This would most likely be issued for SE KS/SW MO.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Temperatures steadily decrease through weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s for Saturday and Sunday. This will be a welcome break from the heat especially with low temperatures in the 60s. Northwesterly winds will be breezy ahead of and after the frontal passage. Saturday will be breezy with winds gusting near 30 mph through the day. Sunday will still feature breezy winds near 20 mph out of the northeast. High pressure begins to build in again on Sunday, but temperatures take their time warming as we go into next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s to start the week with mostly dry weather expected as we start August.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

BBG is at MVFR this evening with patchy fog in the area. Fog is expected to persist through most of the night with it clearing near 12z. Visibilities are expected to stay above 1 SM. The rest of the TAF sites are at VFR and will see breezy southeasterly winds near 10 kts through the night. Chance for showers and thunderstorms return again this morning for SW MO. Showers may linger until 18z. Then, a break in the rain will occur before another chance for thunderstorms return after 20z and persist until 00z Friday. Southerly winds persist through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.