textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will develop and move into the area this evening and overnight with periods of showers occurring into Sunday morning. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with this activity.

- Rainfall amounts will be around 0.75-1" with localized pockets up to 2.5" with the higher amounts falling along and south of I-44.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures next week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region was keeping southerly winds in place across the region early this morning. Middle and upper level clouds were beginning to move over the region and should continue to do so through the day today. South westerly flow aloft through the day ill allow moisture and warm air advection to bring increasing moisture and warmer weather into the region.

Surface low pressure will develop through the day across the southwest and begin to lift into the plains and towards the Ozarks this evening and through the day Saturday as upper level ridging moves east across the central Plains. Models have remained consistent with near 90 to 100 percent chances for rainfall from late this evening through Saturday and into early Sunday with the latest run suggesting a slight increase in potential rainfall amounts. The placement of the remains similar to previous runs as well though areas along I-49 may initially see a period of moderate rainfall that could bring amounts from 1 to 2.5 inches. Otherwise, the highest rainfall amounts will fall along and south of I-44 ranging from 0.75-1" with localized pockets up to 2.5".

There should be some breaks but most everyone is expected to see some rainfall. The period of greatest rain potential will come during the day Saturday with some potential for a few rumbles of thunder near the MO/AR border. there is a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across southern MO for Friday and Saturday, though current drought conditions should limit any flooding.

Afternoon highs today will climb into the lower to upper 60s with highs on Saturday in the 50s to lower 60s thanks to the expected rainfall and cloud cover.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

An upper level low/wave will move the ridge out of the way and slide the surface low across Arkansas Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is expected to bring an end to the rain for the Ozarks by Sunday morning from west to east. This will be replaced by lingering scattered cloud cover and highs in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees.

Short wave and transient ridging then develops Sunday night int Monday before a quick moving upper trough moves across the Plains Tuesday bringing more cloud cover. Even with the increase in potential cloud cover, well above average temperatures for this time of year will occur with highs in the 60s and 70s for the start of next week with little to no rain chances expected at this time.

The next system comes towards the end of next week but like the Tuesday system, may move across the Plains well north of the Ozarks and have little impacts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail until about 00z when increasing clouds and rain chances arrive from the west. Rain chances increase through the night with widespread rain, MVFR ceilings and vis likely overnight through Saturday morning. We have added some prob30s for thunderstorm potential overnight with the highest chances towards Joplin. There is also increasing potential for brief IFR ceilings Saturday morning. Winds will remain out of the southeast with speeds and gusts increasing on Saturday morning. Low level wind shear is possible tonight but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.