textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are expected this evening into the overnight. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible. The highest risk is in far southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas and along/north of I-44. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

It's breezy out there today as the trough pushes into our area and the surface pressure gradient remains tight. Southwest winds have been observed at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s despite a good amount of cloud cover. There are a few hours of warming left, so we're still on track to reach the predicted highs in the 80s today.

The low encroaching on western Missouri has an attendant dryline that extends south and west across western Oklahoma and down into Texas. Convective initiation is expected along this dryline in the next couple of hours. Headed into the evening, these initial supercells are expected to line up as they move east-northeast across Kansas and Oklahoma on their way to us. The northeastern-most end of the line will reach us first, and may feature some development out ahead in west-central Missouri as early as 5-6 p.m. The main line looks to reach our area closer to 7-8 p.m., moving generally west-to-east with a northeast component.

These supercells will look very scary as they move through Oklahoma, where they will be riding a moisture/instability gradient and tapping into all the moisture and warmth that has streamed into the region with the last several days of southerly flow. However, as they move eastward into our area and out of the better instability, they will become less organized/discrete. They are still very much expected to be severe, just not as severe as what may be seen in central Oklahoma, so keep this in mind when monitoring upstream. The stronger/more discrete cells in the line will be capable of very large hail up to 2-3", damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and tornadoes (particularly in our Kansas counties). With the line as a whole/line segments, hail up to quarters and damaging winds will be possible. Again, storms decrease in severity as they move east due to the loss of daytime heating and storms quickly gobbling up the favorable environment. The area with the highest risk for these hazards (SPC Slight risk, level 2/5) is roughly the northwestern half of the CWA, or a Cassville-Springfield- Lebanon-Vichy line.

The severe risk will come to an end in the early morning hours, but there will be little break in the rainfall as a cold front impinging on the dryline from the west continues to force precipitation in eastern Oklahoma that tracks northeast into SWMO. Wednesday will be rainy and dreary the majority of the day. The dryline/cold front situation makes a final push Wednesday night, and should have just enough oomph from 1000-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE, 30-50 kts of shear, steep lapse rates, moisture, and all a severe storm's favorite things to bring another round of severe convection in the afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity as well, and the risk will end after midnight.

With the multiple rounds of rain, one might wonder about the flash flood risk. While there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, given that the expected storm total QPF forecast over the course of two days still remains lower than 1-hr flash flood guidance, it would take hours worth of training and/or strong cells to create a flash flood hazard. This risk is considered secondary to the hail/wind/tornado risk both days.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The cold front lifts to the north rather than moving through Wednesday night, keeping us in the southerly flow regime for the time being. Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday morning, and we'll enjoy some sunshine in the afternoon with highs in the low 80s. The winds settle down as well, with no disturbances nearby for the first time in several days.

Friday, a deep trough finally pushes a cold front through the area. This looks like a very classic severe setup, and we are included in an Enhanced equivalent (level 3/5) outlook from the SPC. Based on the expected environmental conditions, supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes are expected for our area, which grow upscale into a squall line as they progress toward the Mississippi valley.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Scattered to broken stratocumulus was moving across the region this afternoon with high end MVFR to VFR ceilings. With slowly increasing low level moisture continuing to filter into the region cloud cover is expected to continue. Ceilings are expected to lift to VFR, from 6 to 8 kft this evening. However, showers and thunderstorms will also be on the increase across the region this evening. Where showers or storms do occur, MVFR to locally IFR flight conditions will be possible.

Surface winds will remain breezy and gusty with peak gusts from 25 to 35kts at times. Winds will remain southerly through the period. With increasing winds aloft, periods of low level wind shear will occur overnight into Wednesday morning as the boundary layer decouples from the surface flow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/9999

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006

April 16: KSGF: 66/1963

April 17: KSGF: 66/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.