textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in severe thunderstorm potential with isolated to scattered storms throughout today and tonight. Any morning and early afternoon storms will have the potential for quarter to half dollar sized hail. Any late afternoon and overnight storms will have the potential for hail up to lime size, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and a tornado depending on storm evolution.

- Higher confidence in severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening for locations east of Highway 65, with a greater Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk east of Highway 63. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible.

- Lingering Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in far south-central Missouri. Large hail is the main hazard.

- Localized flooding may occur with any training storms this weekend into Tuesday. Some locations may remain completely dry.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday and onward.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The 8am update from the SPC did make some changes to the severe probabilities for our area. The most notable changes were a eastward extension of the Slight risk as far east as Rolla and Salem. Tornado probabilities have also been increased slightly across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Damaging wind probabilities are highest now northwest of Springfield. Large hail probabilities, including the potential for hail to 2 inches in diameter, are located along and west of Highway 65.

Changes/Updates: By in large, the expectations/scenarios described below remain. The main change seems to be with afternoon/evening and overnight storms. As far as this morning goes, the 12z KSGF sounding showed minimal instability and a capping inversion, even for elevated parcels. This leads to lower confidence in morning thunderstorm potential. The synoptic pattern remains very complex with a nearly stationary front across central Kansas. There is a weak trough/pseudo warm front across northeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. However the true warm front with much higher dews remains in far southern Oklahoma. There is a low level jet across Oklahoma that may try to initiate thunderstorms along the front in northeast Oklahoma. We have seen some attempts however most have failed so far. The 11z sounding from northern Oklahoma showed less capping so storms could form further west and will see if they can get organized. There does appear to be weak mid level ridging/subsidence over the area which may also be a factor in limiting storms. There is a developing cumulus field along this front therefore will be watching to see if anything can form. If they do then large hail would be the main hazard.

Of greater concern is for later this afternoon, evening and overnight. Latest trends in high res guidance tries to depict supercells developing across Kansas (near or either side of I-70) and then moving east into Missouri and forming clusters. This is more tied to that Kansas front. Other supercells may attempt to form along the fronts to the south in Oklahoma however this is more uncertain. There seems to be a growing trend that a cluster, or perhaps multiple clusters of storms could form from Kansas into Missouri either late this afternoon/evening and then perhaps linger well into the night as the low level jet increases. Damaging winds and large hail would be the most likely hazards however locations across southeast Kansas and western Missouri (I-49 west) will have a tornado threat. The clusters of storms mainly look to stay along and especially north of I-44.

This will be an evolving and changing situation, therefore stay up to date on changes through the day and evening. Also, the extent of what happens tonight will have an effect on tomorrows severe potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current synoptic conditions across the CONUS is rather chaotic with subtle mid-level shortwaves scattered across the landmass. Around the Plains area, westerly mid- and upper-level flow break down to a 700 mb shortwave axis stretching across KS and into western MO. Along this axis, 850-700 mb frontogenesis and warm- air advection is noted in RAP analysis. This is the beginning of a warm front that will slowly lift northward through today and tonight ahead of a more potent wave approaching from the desert Southwest. The surface front is currently progged along the Red River Valley and southern Arkansas, though the plane of warm air advection extends northward to central KS/western MO where the aforementioned 700 mb front is located. These features will be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development throughout today and tonight as the warm front slowly lifts north.

Low confidence severe thunderstorm risk today and tonight:

HREF/RAP models lift the warm front northward this morning. While many CAMs fail to depict convection, analysis of soundings show uncapped 500-1000 J/kg elevated instability as the front lifts through. With WAA and frontogenesis occurring within the uncapped environment, isolated to scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms do show potential to develop as early as 6-8 AM, with a 25-40% chance west of Highway 65 through at least 1 PM as the front slowly lifts north. There is some uncertainty in exact timing as different models activate different levels of the warm front. For example, if the 700 mb front activates, we could see storms as early as 6-8 AM (RAP). If the 850 mb front activates, we could see storms a bit closer to mid-day (NAMNest). If the surface front activates, we could see storms later in the afternoon (HRRR). Therefore, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day today west of Highway 65 (25-40% chance).

While the potential exists all day, the intensity of potential hazards is in flux. During the morning hours, deep-layer shear and MUCAPE will be on the marginal side at 25-35 kts 1-6 km bulk shear, and 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Therefore, any stronger storms in the morning to early afternoon would carry a hail risk of up to quarters to half dollars. As the day goes on, mid-level flow will increase and temperatures will climb, increasing deep- layer shear to 35-45 kts and MUCAPE values of 1750-3000 J/kg. Additionally, mid-level lapse rates will be at 7-8 C/km. This will lead to a greater potential for any storms to become supercells during the late afternoon and early evening, with a large hail risk up to golf balls to lime size. RAP forecasts put a Large Hail Parameter of 8-12 this afternoon, which research shows lines up with maximum hail sizes of limes to tennis balls.

Location of these storms will largely remain confined to west of Highway 65, with a slightly higher chance toward west-central Missouri where positive vorticity advection and synoptic ascent is greater (this is also where the Enhanced SPC Risk is).

Meanwhile, storms are expected to develop in central KS and northern OK. These are progged to continue eastward, potentially reaching our area late this evening through the overnight hours. CAMs have also struggled to simulate what these storms will do, but with the environment consistently staying at 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear, pattern recognition suggests these storms would grow upscale into an MCS as they move eastward, reaching our area after midnight. The 06Z HRRR is starting to conform to this scenario after multiple runs of keeping us dry. Therefore, the severe threat will last well overnight tonight. If the MCS scenario pans out, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will be possible. If storms stay rather discrete, large hail up to limes will continue to be the main hazard. That said, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but they are the secondary hazards. Once again, it is unclear how far south the greater coverage in storms get as the stronger forcing remains north. North of I-44 seems to have the best chance for storms overnight (60-70% chance).

Higher confidence in severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon:

Considering the MCS scenario above, remnant showers and storms may be ongoing Monday morning, but should quickly clear out. At this point, the warm front should be north of the area, putting us in an open warm sector characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints with resulting HREF mean SBCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg (with some output showing 4000+ J/kg). A dryline will be pushing eastward through our area mid-day. This will also provide a deep elevated mixed layer (EML) with mid-level lapse rates at 8-9 C/km. While this will initially provide some capping (we may see a "loaded gun" type sounding at 18Z), HREF and RAP models erode this capping by early to middle of the afternoon as synoptic-scale ascent overspreads the area from the approaching mid-level shortwave/jet max. This speed max will increase deep-layer shear to 50-60 kts. These parameters create quite the juiced up environment for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

The main uncertainty is in timing of storm initiation, which will depend on the exact time of cap erosion. The SPC risk map highlights this uncertainty with the Marginal extending west to I-49, the Slight along Highway 65, and the Enhanced along Highway 63. An early erosion of the cap would put initiation along I-49. A later erosion would put initiation closer to Highway 63.

Either way, expectation is for coverage of storms to be isolated to scattered due to weaker surface forcing from the dryline, shear vectors oriented eastward (perpendicular to the dryline) and weaker synoptic ascent as the main wave lifts north of the area. Therefore, a couple discrete supercells seems to be the most likely scenario, which almost all CAMs are portraying.

As for hazards, all hazards are in play with the potential for some to be significant, especially if discrete supercells are the main storm mode. The main hazard appears to be very large hail given the aforementioned environment being conducive for large and strong updrafts, especially if storms fire earlier in the afternoon. Models show that earlier in the day, low-level shear and instability will be a bit weaker, decreasing the tornado risk. However, strong storm relative inflow is seen on modeled hodographs. This paired with weaker sub-HGZ CAPE, but very strong deep-layer shear, lapse rates, and MUCAPE above the HGZ would promote large hail, potentially significant, up to limes to tennis balls in the strongest storms.

As the storms progress eastward (or if they initiate later in the day further east), large hail will still be a hazard, but the low-level shear environment will strengthen to 20-30 kts 0-1 km shear, characterized by long, curved hodographs resulting in 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. While surface winds will be a bit more southwesterly, decreasing streamwiseness of the hodograph, this will still be enough shear for tornadoes with the potential for strong tornadoes. SPC currently has us in a 5% CIG1 tornado risk along and east of Highway 63. The 5% is due to the expected low coverage of storms (and by association, low coverage of tornadoes), but the CIG1 I'd wager is on the upper- end of the spectrum, closer to a CIG2, given HREF/RAP Significant Tornado Parameter fields approaching 3-6. The REFS is a bit more bullish with a corridor of 8-10 STP. Therefore, if a tornado forms, the reasonable maximum intensity of it (defined as an approximate 10% chance) could be EF2-EF3. This still means an approximate 80-90% chance that any tornado would be EF0-EF1, but given the forecasted environment, there is a 10% chance of any given tornado being an EF2-EF3.

There is potential for storms to merge into a line as a cold front drops in from the north, overtaking the dryline and providing stronger surface forcing. While this appears to occur after the storms leave our area, if it does occur beforehand, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will also be a primary hazard. Storms should clear our eastern area by late evening.

Note on flooding potential through Tuesday:

Due to the expected isolated to scattered coverage of storms, the overall flooding risk is low. That said, soils are still pretty saturated, so it will not take much for any given storm or training storms to produce a localized flooding risk. This is the cause for the Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Lingering Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday:

Since the shortwave axis will lift to the northeast, the cold front is progged to stall just south of Missouri. Meanwhile, another low amplitude wave will be ejecting off the Rockies Tuesday. Global and medium range models suggest this will lift the front a bit northward, bringing elevated instability and shear back to our far southern Missouri areas. This will bring a lingering Marginal severe risk Tuesday afternoon along that frontal boundary. Medium-range guidance shows weak surface winds and resulting shear, but elongated hodographs above the surface, suggesting a large hail threat would be the main hazard with any storms Tuesday afternoon.

Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures mid-week onward:

The cold front finally makes its final push southward after Tuesday night, bringing cooler than average temperatures to the area Wednesday and onwards. Expect highs in the middle to upper 60s with lows in the middle to upper 40s through Saturday. During this period, dry weather is expected except for Thursday night and Friday.

15-35% chances for light rain Thursday night through Friday:

Thursday night and Friday, the right entrance region of a polar jet branch will overlap with a subtropical shortwave in central Texas. The result will be a strong baroclinic zone across the southern states. Stratiform rain from this system may lift north into our area Thursday night and Friday (15-35% chance). At the moment, it appears any thunderstorm chances would be very low to non-existent with this round of rain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon ane evening. Confidence is much lower with the thunderstorm potential this afternoon through tonight. Have tried to keep the prob30s limited to tonight/overnight when the thunderstorm chances are higher at JLN and SGF. However if storms develop earlier, then we made need amendments. Winds will remain southeasterly with a gradualy shift to the south tonight into Monday. Wind gusts on Monday will increase to around 25-30kts. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites overnight into Monday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.