textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in mid to upper 80s approaching records.

- Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers today through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not.

- Low-confidence Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms across central Missouri tonight.

- Widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface high pressure has moved south over the area and will continue to move across the region early this morning, then off to the east on today. A dry air mass also remains in place across the area. Lows will overall drop into in the middle 40s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s across extreme southeastern Kansas this morning. It is possible that some of the valleys across the eastern Ozarks drop to around the 40 degree mark.

Warm air advection will start to move from west to east into the area this morning. Some MUCAPE will develop with the warm air advection, but a dry air mass remains in place which will limit how much of the MUCAPE can be realized. Some isolated showers will likely develop, with maybe a rumble of thunder mainly along and west of I-49. Dry air will be in place farther to the east, so showers will dissipate before they cross Highway 65. The rainfall amounts will be light with this activity and may not be much more than sprinkles.

Highs will range from the middle 70s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon as the warming air mass advects in from the west. Moisture will also start to advect into the area from the west but will be slow to reach the portions of the area where afternoon RH values of 25 to 35% are expected east of Highway 65. As the surface high moves off to the east, southeasterly winds will develop and increase and be gusty at times this morning into the evening hours especially along and west of Highway 65 where gusts up to 30 mph will occur at times.

An upper-level disturbance will move east across the Plains today and into the region tonight. As the warmer air mass advects into the area a cap will develop across southern Missouri, with better instability and a weaker cap north of the area. Some scattered storm development will be possible across northern eastern Kansas and this evening and will move east into Missouri late this evening into the overnight hours. Models are indicating that the cap will hold stronger across our area with the better chances for this activity remain north of the area Thursday night. If the cap can weaken enough some storms could clip locations north of Highway 54, and a strong storm could be possible but overall this is a low risk at this time. Some light rain showers will be possible across portions of the area Friday morning with the disturbance but the cap should limit thunderstorm potential.

A warm air mass in the mid levels will result in a cap being in place across southern and portions of central Missouri on Friday. 850mb temperatures will warm into the lower 20s Celsius on Friday with highs warming into the middle to upper 80s. The upper level pattern will be a zonal ride patter where upper level disturbances more through the region at times but the upper level jet will remain well north of the area. There for shear will be weak across the area during the day time hours increasing slightly overnight with the low level jet. Another disturbance will move through the area on Friday evening and night. The cap will remain over much of the area, so some scattered light rain showers would be possible Friday night across portions of the area. If the cap could weaken again to the north some storms would be possible and maybe a strong storm of two but the trend is for the better potential for this to remain north of the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Summer-like Weather through the Weekend:

A similarly warm and capped airmass will remain in place Saturday through Sunday. However, a weak mid-level shortwave impulse that transits the synotpic-scale zonal pattern may provide a bit more lift that could aid in the development of more shallow, widely scattered showers Saturday morning. If these showers and clouds do indeed manifest, they could knock temperatures down a few degrees, with highs closer to the low 80s. If not, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees given the already-warm morning temperatures.

Upper-level flow will begin to turn more southwesterly on Sunday as a deeper, more prominent trough begins digging into the western CONUS. This shift will act to draw Gulf moisture into the region. With temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and increasing surface dew points, heat index values will land in the upper 80s to low 90s. Furthermore, some daily record temperatures may be challenged through the weekend, both for afternoon high temperatures and overnight low temperatures. In fact, temperatures may fail to cool below 70 degrees Sunday night into Monday. See the Climate section below for further details.

Widespread Rain & Thunderstorm Chances Monday and Tuesday:

The aforementioned upper-level trough will begin to move east across the Intermountain West early next week. As it does so, global models generally depict increasing dew points under a moderate mid-level jet across the Plains. This superposition of moisture, shear, and lift will support the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the warm, moist airmass, with the current model parameter space suggesting at least some risk for severe thunderstorms. Indeed, ML and AI guidance continue to ping a broad signal for severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, and the Storm Prediction Center has outlined roughly the northwest half of our CWA in a 15% severe weather outlook on Monday as of this writing. If the wave and front are slower/less progressive, then a severe risk may persist into Tuesday as well.

Ensemble solutions continue to disagree on the timing and magnitude of this feature, however. Some models are beginning to suggest that the northern stream energy may pivot through the Upper-Midwest early in the week, while the southern stream wave lags behind by a day or so. This effectively would result in slow-moving or stalled cold front across the region and introduce a chance for training thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. We will need to monitor forecast trends in the coming days to better evaluate these potential scenarios. Overall, however, confidence is medium to high that widespread rain chances will return Monday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10-20%) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm across far western Missouri between 12Z and 15Z this morning, but confidence was too low to include in the initial TAF issuance and will be handled with amendments if needed.

Southeasterly winds will increase late morning into the afternoon, particularly across far western Missouri and eastern Kansas, where gusts of 20 to 25 kt will be common.

An increasing low-level jet will then nose into the region tonight and introduce some LLWS into the TAFs after 03Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023

May 16:0 KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.