textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant fire conditions today. Elevated to locally significant fire conditions are expected again on Saturday.

- Low (10-30% chance) of scattered showers and a rumble of thunder on Saturday afternoon.

- Widespread precipitation chances (70-85%) Sunday into Monday morning as a cold front moves into the area, including potential for a wintry mix, mainly north of Hwy 54.

- Active pattern continues after this weekend into the middle of March. There is a threat for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week (March 4-11).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Biggest stories:

1. It's Very Warm High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon under clear skies are 20+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Expect temperatures in the mid 70s again on Saturday before a cold front pushes towards the area Saturday night into Sunday and brings us back to normal temperatures for March 1 (upper 40s to mid 50s). 25th/75th percentile temperature spreads of 8-12 degrees indicate that there is still significant uncertainty with the timing and location of the front after it stalls on Sunday and Monday. If the front does stall atop the Ozarks as currently progged, temperatures may range from mid 60s near the OK/MO border to mid 40s in central Missouri during the day on Monday.

2. Elevated Fire Concerns Today and Saturday See Fire Weather section for further detail.

3. Shower Chances Tonight and Saturday As a synoptic low moves through the Great Lakes area tonight into Saturday, several mid- level vort maxes will move across the area and serve as a localized source of lift. Without appreciable moisture advection during the overnight hours, it will be extremely difficult to impossible for showers to overcome the deep surface-based layer of dry air to precipitate at the surface, resulting in virga at best. However, building high pressure over the Gulf will begin to allow better low-level moisture advection into the area during the day on Saturday, which will give showers a better, if still slim (10-30%), chance of making it down to the surface.

4. Widespread 60-85% Precip Chances Sunday Moisture will be the primary limiting factor that delays the onset of showers and storms, with initial moisture from the Saturday daytime surge being replaced by drier air overnight into Sunday according to most recent REFS guidance. However, a secondary moisture plume will push into the area late Saturday night into Sunday. With the front stalled in the vicinity, as well as some elevated instability, once the moisture arrives on Sunday morning, it will be go-time for the showers and even some rumbles of thunder in the far southern portions of our area.

5. Mixed Precip Chances Sunday Night With the aforementioned uncertainties related to timing of frontal passage/temperatures and timing of more robust moisture, there are several things contributing to an uncertain forecast regarding precipitation type in our northernmost counties (north of Highway 54) on Sunday and into Sunday night. As colder air starts settling into the area, a wintry mix could develop in the evening hours before warm air advection changes the predominant precip type back to rain Monday morning. However, confidence in this p-type assessment remains low due to the sensitivity and lack of run-to-run consistency with models.

6. Rain Chances Stay High After Sunday, With A Warming Trend Sunday night/Monday's precip will be the first of many potential rounds of precip as the shortwave trough train begins. Monday features 20-50% chances of rain as the cold front stalls and starts trying to nudge back north as a pseudo-warm front. Highs on Monday will vary based on your location in relation to the front, but expect most of the area to stay near the 50s for highs and upper 40s/50s for lows.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A list of interesting things that may or may not happen, continued:

7. Moisture! GFS IVT starts to indicate a moisture plume with some substance to it flowing off the Gulf and through the Ozarks into the MS River Valley after Tuesday. With several shortwaves moving across the area and a lingering stalled frontal boundary, there will opportunities for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout next week. The continuous moisture could serve to fuel heavy rainfall, potentially several rounds of heavy rainfall.

8. Storms! Several shortwave ejections into the Plains, paired with southwest flow, a consistent stream of high-quality moisture, and above-normal temperatures in the month of March likely spells out severe weather for somewhere in the southern/central Plains. Whether or not that "somewhere" will turn out to be the Ozarks will be dependent on whether all of those ingredients actually line up over our area, which is still unclear at this time.

9. Lots of Uncertainty Keep an eye on the forecast over the coming week to see how the aforementioned forecast elements evolve, because there are numerous factors resulting in compounding uncertainty as time goes on. Very few details are set in stone at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR through the period with breezy southwesterly winds gusting near 10 knots overnight for most of the area. Winds will primarily be southwesterly on Saturday and gust up to 25 knots. Winds stay elevated through Saturday evening and skies stay partly cloudy through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Today: Significant fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon, with warm temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and clear skies allowing deep, efficient mixing. Moisture recovery this morning was pretty variable across different parts of the area, with remnants of narrow corridors of enhanced moisture that developed overnight still visible when looking at dew point observations this afternoon. This fact, paired with hyper-local terrain influences on heating and mixing, is generally keeping sub-20% RH values confined to localized areas. Mixing heights are expected to reach 6-7kft (potentially as high as 8kft in the most well-mixed areas).

10-15 mph southwesterly winds are gusting to around 25 mph in most of southern Missouri this afternoon, but an occasional gust up to 30 mph will remain possible until sunset in areas north of Highway 54 in Missouri. North of Highway 54 is where the highest fire risk remains this afternoon due to these slightly increased winds, which is borderline Red Flag Warning conditions. Confidence in persistent gusts >30 mph remains below 50%, which is why a Red Flag Warning has not been issued. However, "borderline" Red Flag fire conditions are still conducive to rapid spread or loss of control of any fires that are started by anyone except experienced fire personnel.

Tonight: Clear skies will allow an inversion to develop early this evening in the lowest 100-300 feet, which could trap smoke/a "smokey smell" in the vicinity of any large burns this evening. The inversion will begin to dissipate as cloud cover infiltrates after midnight. Recovery will be minimal overnight, with a <20% chance of RHs increasing above 75% as the cloud cover begins limiting efficient radiational cooling.

Saturday: Saturday will be another elevated to locally significant fire danger day, with afternoon RHs 20-30% possible again amidst 10-20 mph southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 mph. The strongest winds will be generally along and north of I-44, especially west of Highway 65. Widespread fire danger will be somewhat tempered by the misalignment of the strongest winds with the lowest relative humidity values, which will be located generally south of I-44. However, the non-uniformity of the moisture field observed on Friday may bleed into Saturday some, meaning there could still be localized areas that do see overlap between sub-30% RHs and gusts over 25 mph.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Recent drought and precipitation deficit has area streamflows and soil moisture running low going into this weekend. However, the upcoming pattern change and potential for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are beginning to signal that drought could be greatly reduced or eliminated in the coming weeks. There is still a lot of uncertainty related to how exactly this pattern shift will affect the Ozarks, but it is worth keeping an eye on streamflow projections and water model trends over the coming week to evaluate whether the rainfall will be sufficient enough to saturate the soils and push us over into flooding territory by next weekend.

CLIMATE

Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 28: KSGF: 77/2017 KJLN: 78/1972 KUNO: 77/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 4: KSGF: 58/2024

March 5: KSGF: 56/1992

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.