textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 through the weekend. Occasional wind gusts of 20-35mph this afternoon.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. All hazards will be possible with damaging winds the most likely hazard. A few separate rounds of storms are possible each day.

- Additional rainfall chances (20-30%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A look at the region's IR and water vapor imagery and regional radar shows an active pattern with showers and storms impacting western Nebraska into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. This activity was occurring along a warm front across that area. These storms are forecast to remain north of the Ozarks this morning and through today. Surface low pressure in southeastern Colorado is anchoring the western end of the front under an upper level southwesterly flow pattern. Thanks to strong warm air and moisture advection from the southwesterly flow, a few locations along and west of I-49 may not cool out of the lower 70s this morning.

Synoptic and CAMS models keep a mid level ridge over the area through this morning and into the early evening hours. A strong low level jet (50-60kts) is forecast to move over the area tonight across Kansas and Oklahoma and nose into northwest Missouri. A strong upper level shortwave trough will deepen and move across the plains towards the region today with strengthening low pressure across southwest Kansas. There will be limited forcing during the day across the Ozarks however, which should keep the area dry through today. It will be warm and windy as the surface pressure gradient increases through the day in response to the approaching surface low in the Plains. Gusty south winds up to 35 mph are likely as a result. While cloud cover is expected to increase into this afternoon, daytime heating should still be capable of producing afternoon highs in the middle to potentially upper 80s. See climate section below for details on daily record highs that could be challenged.

Farther west in the central and north-central Plains, widespread severe weather is expected through most of the day. As mentioned, this will stay north and west of the Ozarks until late tonight. Discrete storms in the Plains are expected to congeal into a line or several line segments before moving through southern Missouri, bringing primarily a damaging wind threat that drives the Marginal severe risk from SPC for today. There seems to be some disagreement among the CAMs regarding the exact behavior of the line as it approaches, with some bringing storms much farther south (and a bit earlier) than others. Some models even favor a few storms lifting northeast out of Oklahoma ahead of the main line. Look for storms to move in near and after midnight, quickly weakening and lifting northeast as they move east of Highway 65.

Strong synoptic energy pushes closer to the area on Monday along with a low-level jet core. While the primary frontal energy lags behind until late Monday night, plenty of buoyancy, support from the jet, steep lapse rates, high moisture etc. could allow for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development throughout the day, but weak shear would limit their ability to become severe. A severe thunderstorm or two during the afternoon is possible, but unlikely.

Severe storms begin to fire through central Kansas mid-afternoon, where an SPC Moderate risk is in place for all hazards. These storms are once again expected to congeal into a line that moves into the Ozarks late Monday night, perhaps around 8-10 p.m. We are mostly outlined in a Slight risk for the hazards this line will pose, which is technically all, but with the storm mode, damaging winds will be most likely. QLCS-type tornado potential will need to be monitored. The far northwest corner of Bourbon county is clipped by the Enhanced risk, as severity is expected to decrease as the storms propagate to the southeast but will maximize in the northwest corners of our area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

While there is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday, there are many conditions that must be met for it to be realized. It is contingent on the speed of the front, the location of lift, and the subsequent location of convective initiation. Some of the longer- term CAMs depict discrete cells initiating along a southwest-to- northeast axis bisecting the state before moving off to the southeast. CAMs are not very reliable at these forecast hours, though they do depict possible scenarios. The front does appear to be more progressive than originally thought, especially once flow begins to pivot more westerly Tuesday, which will help to quell the risk for flash flooding along with the general lack of precipitation in the area as of late.

Additional Rain Chances Mid/Late Week: Latest ensemble data suggests that the overall upper level pattern does not change much as the area remains in the west/southwest upper level flow pattern. The front that moves through Tuesday will likely lift back into the area and will serve as a focus for additional chances for showers and storms. While chances are currently only 20-30 percent, these could increase in future updates. The additional precip chances do look to suppress temps back down into the 70s for highs versus the 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The region is expected to keep VFR flight conditions through the forecast period as a front remains across northern Missouri into tonight. Surface winds will remain out of the south with increasing gusts around 25 to 30kts through this morning and into this afternoon.

With increasing low level winds, low level wind shear will be a factor for flight from 06 to 08z this evening before the boundary layer mixes our and winds translate to the surface producing gusty surface winds through this morning and today.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 16: KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.