textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog through this morning, especially southeast of I-44. 40-60% chance for visibilities to drop below 1 mile. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today (highest chances southeast of I-44). Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

- Additional rain chances through the end of the week and weekend. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Early morning observations showed much of the Ozarks under stratus and continued southeasterly flow. This was occurring thanks to weak upper level flow as a strong upper low was nearly anchored on the west coast. The continued south and southeasterly flow through the day that brought rain to much of the region also brought increasing PW values with the 00Z sounding at 1.62in, up from 0.90 on the 12z sounding. Scattered to isolated showers were moving from southeast to northwest early this morning across portions of the region mainly along and south of I-44.

With the increased PW's, the rainfall from yesterday and wet ground, where clouds can clear, visibilities have fallen to a mile or less for some isolated locations thanks in part to the light winds as well. As cloud cover moves over the region, visibilities improve but will monitor through sunrise for any increased coverage and duration of dense fog for any products. Short range ensembles have continued to show 40-60% chance of visibilities dropping below one mile mainly along and south of I-44 and mostly east of Highway 65.

The upper low across the western US will make little eastward progress today, however, upper level energy will round the bottom of the upper trough and move into the Plains. Short range models and ensembles develop showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening primarily to the southwest of Springfield. With the ample moisture over the region, rainfall will be fairly efficient with slow moving showers and storms. Overall, while most areas should expect 0.1in to 0.25in of rain, very localized amounts closer to 1 to 1.5 inches could occur for localized areas southwest of Springfield. With very low shear forecast storms are expected to remain non-severe. Locations from Springfield and points north and east will see much less rainfall chances. Despite the cloud cover and showers across the Ozarks today, southerly flow will help bring warmer temperatures with most areas reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Rain chances will continue for the Ozarks from Thursday into the weekend. The upper low over the west will continue block the pattern until it begins to weaken, fill and lift north into far western Canada by early next week. As this occurs, upper level ridging will develop in the Plains and Ozarks, but lingering moisture and pieces of energy roughing the upper low will keep shower and storm potential for the region through the weekend and into early nest week. By Tuesday, an upper low will dive south across the Great Lakes and into the central Appalachians before lifting to the northeast by the end of next week.

Upper level patters in these type of stagnant regimes can forecasting times and durations of rainfall difficult, especially with regard to global model output. As a result, showers tend to be more scattered. Localized heavy rainfall will remain a possibility, with the potential for multiple rounds of rainfall which resulted in marginal risks for excessive rainfall. Total rainfall amounts through the week are forecast by the NBM to be from 1 to 1.25 inches or less with areas of the eastern Ozarks and central Missouri seeing the least rains, possibly less than a quarter of an inch.

Temperatures will be impacted as a result of rainfall and cloud cover but highs in the 70s to lower 80s will be common most days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered showers were moving across the Ozarks this morning and are expected to continue to impact the region into this afternoon and evening. limited confidence in coverage, timing and impacts precluded anything more that mention in PROB30 groups but will be continuously monitored.

A low IFR overcast stratus deck spread over the area and is expected to continue into the afternoon before some improvements to MVFR or VFR occur. Surface winds will be light and variable unless a storm impacts a terminal. Where showers or storms do occur, expected worse conditions.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.