textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue today, then slightly cooler weather returns for the middle to end of the week with colder conditions this weekend.

- Elevated fire weather conditions again this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 to 30 mph with afternoon minimal humidity values in the 25-35% range.

- Scattered light rain potential (25-45%) this evening and night as a strong upper disturbance and cold front move through. Rainfall amounts will be light.

- Gusty northwesterly winds on Wednesday and again on Friday with gusts up to 35 mph at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 109 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Synoptic analysis showcases northwesterly flow aloft, with upper level energy pushing into Manitoba, Canada and the Northern Plains. Ahead of this system, satellite imagery depicts high level clouds continuing to push southeast over the forecast area as of 1AM, with observations showcasing overnight temperatures generally in the 40s. Early morning temperatures should drop a few more degrees before sunrise, with lows in the mid/upper 30s to low 40s.

As the day progresses, an upper level shortwave is progged to pivot southeast towards the region, bringing our next chances of precipitation (albeit light) later tonight. Before that occurs however, a tightened pressure gradient will lead to continued southwesterly wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph through the morning and afternoon before the associated cold front sweeps through and shifts winds out of the northwest. The current dry airmass in place (minimum RHs forecast to drop into the 25-35% range) coupled with these higher gusts will lead to another day of Elevated Fire Danger.

These southwesterly winds will continue to advect warm air into the area ahead of tonight's system, leading to the warmest day in the foreseeable future. The NBM interquartile spread showcases a meager 3-degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles, leading to high confidence in reaching the low to mid 60s later this afternoon.

By this evening, the associated surface cold front will begin to push southeast into the forecast area. Enough lift and moisture looks to be present to bring some sprinkles/light showers, however with this system approaching from the north/northwest, and the dry airmass in place, rainfall will remain limited, with forecast amounts only expected to range between a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch. Most locations should remain below a tenth of an inch, however areas closer to central MO could see amounts reaching closer to 0.10".

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 109 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The above-normal temperatures will return closer to normal for Wednesday as gusty northerly winds between 25 to 35 mph usher in the colder air behind the front. Expect Wednesday's highs to drop back down into the 40s, with overnight lows falling into the teens Wednesday night. For Thursday, highs will remain in the upper 30s (eastern Ozarks) to the mid 40s (higher west of Highway 65).

Another upper level low is progged to push towards the Great Lakes Region on Friday, with an associated upper level trough and surface cold front pushing through the area. As a result, another bout of cold air will be ushered in for the weekend, with highs expected to remain in the 30s for most locations. With wind gusts up to 25 to 35 mph occurring at times once again, wind chills could drop into the low teens to single digits Saturday morning, and the single digits into the negatives Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mid level clouds will continue to increase across the area from the north this afternoon and evening. Southwest to westerly winds will occur this afternoon and will be gusty at times up to around 20kt at times. Wind will weaken this evening.

A cold front will move south through the area late this evening into tonight. Some light rain will occur with the front but will remain on the light side. MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings will also be possible behind the front late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the front late tonight and especially during the day on Wednesday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.