textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region through the evening (50-70% chance). With additional showers and storms, through midnight.

- Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for some storms to become strong to severe into tonight, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail up to baseballs is the main hazard throughout the day, with a conditional damaging wind and tornado risk this afternoon and evening.

- Due to chances of storms throughout the day, localized flooding may occur with any repeated rainfalls or training of storms.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday and onward.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A very unstable airmass was in place over the Ozarks this afternoon. Despite a significant inversion on the SGF 12Z sounding, elevated instability was from 1000 to 2500 j/kg, with elevated lapse rates from 7 to 8.5. A middle level 700mb trough was approaching the region with a surface low moving across Texas. This combination is expected to allow the cold front that moved through the Ozarks yesterday to lift back north as a warm front this afternoon into the evening.

Additionally, the system this afternoon into this evening will have middle an upper level Jet support with a 30-40kts southerly winds at 850mb, 40 to 55kts southwesterly winds at 700mb, and a coupled jet over the Ozarks at 250mb. This will allow allow for continued upscale growth of storms across the region. Forecast hodographs remained very long and straight above the surface inversion which would favor splitting supercells, which should favor left-movers over right- movers.

There's remains uncertainty in shower, storm, and severe chances between 4 PM and midnight. Given large-scale synoptic ascent with the lifting warm front, these storms may be somewhat widespread, which could overturn the atmosphere, washing out mid-level lapse rates and associated MUCAPE. What may aid in storm development is a lifting warm front that as of the 1pm mesoscale interrogations looks to have lifted into southern Missouri from Rogers, AR to north of Branson to just south of West Plains. This boundary may allow for enhanced vorticity and lift along the front. Along and south of the boundary would also provide the potential for surface based storms to develop, allowing for a possible brief tornado spin up.

Finally, with multiple rounds of rain anticipated into tonight, localized flash flooding will also be possible. Storms will have estimated hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches, though residence time will be shorter. This would still allow for for localized flooding.

Rain chances should clear our area by midnight, with temperatures cooling into the lower 50s in south-central Missouri, and the lower 40s in west-central Missouri.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the wake of todays storms, high pressure will filter into the region and allow for a few days of quiet weather into at least Thursday though possibly into the coming weekend. A weak upper level trough may produce some light rain Thursday night ahead to the trough but synoptic models wash out the rain before it reaches the region. Overall, the upper level flows looks as though it will be zonal into the coming weekend.

The pattern and rounds of cooler high pressure will bring below average temperatures through at least Saturday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The coolest period still looks light Friday and Friday night as a trough moves through the area. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 60s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There may be a low end frost risk if trends continue decreasing temperatures.

Ensembles still show a potential warm-up beginning Sunday into early next week back to near normal temperatures in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

IFR ceilings are expected to continue at all three terminals with a stratus deck over the area. Periods between 00Z-04Z could lead to brief LIFR Cigs, primarily at KSGF and KBBG before conditions improve back to VFR at KJLN by 05Z-06Z and KSGF/KBBG between 09Z-12Z. Otherwise, expect northerly winds generally between 5-10kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.