textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures through Thursday followed by a warming trend into the weekend. A drier stretch of weather is expected through Saturday.

- 40-70% precipitation chances return on Sunday, with colder temperatures into early next week before another warm up.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A surface cold front has been making its way southeast through the forecast area through the morning and early afternoon hours, with low to mid level stratus clouds experienced across the area. Weak residual instability has led to light showers and some drizzle along the frontal passage, with observations showing an additional trace to a tenth of an inch of rain that has fallen since 7AM this morning. Some stronger convective cells developed over the far southeastern portion of the CWA, primarily in Oregon county, however lightning activity remained limited, and any convection remained sub-severe. The cloud cover, precipitation, and cold front have helped keep temperatures closer to seasonable, with observations showing a large gradient across the area. As of 1PM, areas along/north of I-44 showcase temperatures in the mid to upper 40s, with areas southeast of I-44 in the 50s to low 60s. Additionally, behind the frontal passage, observations have shown surface winds shifting out of the north- northwest, with sustained winds between 15-20mph periodically gusting up to 20-30mph.

As the upper level trough that brought last night's convection continues to translate eastward, northwesterly flow aloft has settled over the area, leading to seasonable temperatures continuing through Thursday. For tonight, overnight lows are expected to dip into the upper 20s to low 30s. The NBM interquartile spread shows a 5-degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles Thursday afternoon, with fairly good confidence in afternoon highs remaining in the mid to upper 50s. Some locations near the MO/AR border could reach 60.

We will need to keep an eye on any fire weather potential Thursday afternoon as a dry airmass filters in behind the cold front, dropping humidity values into the 25-30% range. An upper level shortwave trough looks to dive out of Canada, with an associated surface low developing over the Northern Plains. This will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to sustained winds between 10-20mph gusting up to 20-30mph. As a result, elevated fire conditions will be possible along and north of I-44 Thursday afternoon. As the previous discussion mentioned, with the recent rainfall leading to saturated soils, fuels may not be very receptive to these conditions, which could limit the fire danger.

Temperatures will begin to warm back up, with overnight lows Thursday night in the 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Surface high pressure continues over the region through the end of the work week, leading to dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s (along/north of Hwy 60) to the upper 60s (south of Hwy 60) on Friday, warming up to the low to mid 70s on Saturday.

The next chance for precipitation looks to be towards the end of the weekend as an upper level trough digs southeast through the Plains. An associated surface low will drag a cold front through the region, however there's still some timing and track uncertainties leading to lower confidence in precipitation type and intensity. Looking at ensemble member low placements, there seems to be two potential tracks the surface low takes. A more northern track during the daytime (i.e. The low tracking through northern MO/southern IA) would lead to rain being the primary precipitation type (with some thunderstorm potential), whereas a more southern track (i.e. tracking along the KS/OK border up through the forecast area) could lead to more of a rain/snow mixed precipitation event. The more probable solution would be the northern track with rain as the precipitation type and any wintry precip remaining north of the area. The caveat to that would be related to timing of this system. Currently it looks to push through during the day, however any residual precipitation in the evening and overnight hours could lead to a light rain/snow mix (<25% probability) as temperatures drop below freezing behind the frontal passage. We'll need to keep an eye on how this system evolves over the next several days to get a better idea on the exact details.

The potency of this system will lead to a tightened pressure gradient, therefore causing gusty conditions again on Sunday. Current guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-25mph gusting up to 30- 40mph. NBM probability of wind gusts >40mph currently sits at 30- 40%, so we'll need to keep an eye on any potential upticks in winds. Any fire weather concerns will be conditional on precipitation/timing of the system - namely if the stronger winds can match up with the drier air.

Looking ahead to next week, a ridging pattern will begin to set up over the Plains, leading to dry conditions and a general warming pattern through next week. The CPC Day 8-14 Outlook depicts temperatures leaning above normal with Below normal precipitation. With it still being the middle of the week, there's still uncertainty regarding how warm we can get towards the end of the week next week, however NBM percentiles suggest the potential for highs 15-20 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entire TAF period with only a few passing high clouds. Main aviation concern is an increase in winds and LLWS after a gradual shift from northwesterly to southwesterly 5-10 kt winds. After 17-20Z, the southwesterly winds are expected to increase to 13-18 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Toward the end of the period (after 01-04Z), a strong low-level jet will produce strong low-level wind shear of 45-50 kts, increasing above 50 kts right around the end of the 06Z TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.