textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s for portions of the area. - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (50-90% chances) are expected midweek/late week and could linger into the weekend. There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A few scattered sprinkles will be possible across portions of the area east of Highway 65 early this morning as upper level energy moves south through the region. Most locations will remain dry and just a trace of rainfall will occur at any of the few locations affected by this activity early this morning.

Highs are once again expected to warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s this afternoon as clouds clear from west to east this afternoon. Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will range from the middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.

An upper level ridge will start to move east into the region on Tuesday as an upper level low digs south across the west coast. A warmer airmass will start to advect from west to east across the area on Tuesday with above normal temperatures expected with highs warming into the 80s with middle to upper 80s expected for portions of the area. No rainfall is expected across the area on Tuesday as the upper level trough remains well southwest of the area. The warmer air mass will remain in place across the area into Wednesday. Lows will range from around 60 across south central Missouri to near 70 across extreme southeastern Kansas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The upper level low will continue to dig southeast across the southwestern U.S. on Wednesday with a warmer airmass remaining in place across the area. Above normal temperatures will again occur on Wednesday as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s and a few locations could approach the 90 degree mark. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will accompany the warmer air mass as gusts up to around 30 mph occurs at times on Wednesday.

The upper level low will remain well to the southwest of the area on Wednesday resulting in much of the day remaining dry. The long wave trough will remain west of the area with the western portions of the area on the eastern edge of the trough. Therefore, energy will lift more to the north from the low and remain west of the area through much of the day on Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday the trough will start to slowly move to the east. Moisture advection will occur ahead of the system and the slow movement will allow a longer return period. The remnants of Hurricane Polo will also be absorbed into the upper level low before moving into the region also increasing moisture with the system.

Bands of showers, with some embedded thunderstorms will develop ahead of the low and track to the north/northeast. As the trough slowly moves east these bands could start to move into the western portions of the area Wednesday evening, but more likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The bands will continue to develop and track to the north/northeast on Thursday and spread east through the day. The upper level low will start slowly move east therefore the bands may not reach the eastern portions of the area until later in the day. The slow movement of the trough will lead to the potential for training of these bands as the keep develop and tracking over the same locations. The increased moisture and the training potential will lead to the risk for some heavy rainfall across portions of the the area. The WPC has locations along and west of I-49 in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rain for Wednesday night and a Slight Risk for much of the area on Thursday/Thursday night as the system slowly moves to the east.

Highs will only warm into the 70s on Thursday where the rain moves into the area, but with the slow movement of the system the rain may not move into the eastern portions of the area until later in the day allowing highs to potentially warm into the lower to middle 80s where the rain holds off until longer into the day.

Another upper level trough will move east across the northern Plains late week and will push a front to the south into the area Friday/Friday night. The upper level low to the southwest should start to move east through towards the area Friday, and will likely open up into a trough as the long wave trough become less amplified. The front and trough will result in additional periods of rain occurring across the area on Friday/Friday night. The ensemble model members differ on the timing of the front as some move it south of the area Friday night, with others moving the front south of the area on Saturday, and a few members (therefore lower potential at time) showing the front stalling over the area through much of the weekend. Rain chances will occur across the area until the front moves south of the area. The front will bring cooler conditions to the area with highs in the upper 60s into the middle 70s expected this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A few sprinkles will be possible across portions of the area early this morning, but not all locations will be affected and no impacts are expected for those that due see any of this sprinkle activity. Any sprinkle potential should end by the mid morning hours today.

VFR clouds will remain in place across the area this morning an will start to clear from southwest to northeast this afternoon with mostly clear skies expected by this evening.

Winds will generally be light out of the east to southeast through much of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.