textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in mid to upper 80s approaching records.

- Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers today through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not.

- Widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Upper level ridge axis has shifted eastward and was now positioned from east TX into western Ontario. Northern stream jet was located along the northern U.S. states west of the ridge axis with a shortwave embedded in this flow tracking across southern Saskatchewan into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Polar orbiting satellite PW data showing low level moisture return to the west of the ridge across eastern OK and KS along with some elevated instability was supporting a band of light showers over eastern KS into far western MO, however low level dry air over MO was likely putting the kabash on any precipitation reaching the ground other than a few sprinkles.

Tonight: Upper ridge axis will deamplify and shift east of the area by late evening with a southwesterly low level jet setting up over the area. A dry line to the west of the area will aid in producing some strong to severe storms over western/central KS this afternoon and evening, however progression into our area looks to be low probability with fairly weak synoptic scale forcing and a decent CAP over the area. Marginal risk was removed from the area in an earlier update.

Friday: Low level moisture will continue to increase with stronger southerly flow from the Gulf. Despite a decent CAP in place, elevated MU CAPES increase during the afternoon and evening may support an isolated strong to severe storm over our northern CWA. Warm 850mb temperatures in the 17-20 deg C range will advect into the area bringing about warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s starting Friday and likely continuing through the weekend into early next week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday: Broad southwesterly flow will set up aloft in advance of an upper level wave. A frontal boundary will remain positioned west and north of the area while a low level jet remains positioned southwest to northeast across the region. Best organized convection will remain north of the area, however can't rule out widely scattered convection, mostly in the morning across the northern CWA.

Sunday looks mostly dry with the upper trough digging further to our west. This will start to pivot and become negatively tilted across the central plains into the upper Mississippi valley region where the best severe weather chances will exist. Our precipitation chances will start to increase on Monday, especially later in the day as the frontal boundary shifts into eastern KS and western MO during the evening. With the main upper shortwave lifting northeast away from the area and west to southwest flow continuing behind the front, moisture will be quick to return by midweek in advance of the next upper wave. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday which may bring some heavy rain and the potential for some localized flooding.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

For the 18z TAFS, some mid level clouds over western MO and southeast KS with a narrow band of moisture return. A few echoes on radar, however given the dry low levels over the area and thermal CAP, not expecting much as far as precipitation reaching the ground. Some gusty southerly winds are expected through the period with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Low level wind shear of 40-50 kts will develop over the area as a low level jet develops this evening.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023

May 16:0 KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.