textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for large portion of the area from 11am to 7pm Today. Expect gusty southwest winds up to 35-45 mph and humidity in the 20-30% range.

- Above average temperatures expected through the rest of the week and into Saturday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday could be at least 20 degrees above average (Highs in the 70s).

- There is a 30-60% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning with rainfall amounts of 0.10in or less. Additional precip chances (30-50%) return Sunday into early next week however confidence is low with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to highlight northwest flow aloft over the area with a 170kt upper level jet moving into the Northern Plains. The Central Plains were stuck in between surface low pressure over North Dakota and a departing surface high over Alabama. This has led to an increasing surface pressure gradient and increasing low level jet. This 40-50kt low level jet was over Kansas and Oklahoma however it will spread east later this morning. The 00z KSGF sounding measured a dry airmass throughout the column with PW values around 0.13in and dews in the lower teens. Taking a look to our incoming source region, the 00z KOUN sounding had a similar dry sounding with dews in the low 20s. As of 2am, temps were beginning to slowly climb as the southerly winds begin however RH values remain in the 40-60% range.

Fire Danger/Gusty Winds Today: No major changes to expectations. High cloud cover will spread southeast into the area, creating a filtered sunshine environment as well as limiting full mixing potential. That being said, even without full mixing potential, the aforementioned low level jet will spread into the area through the morning and will actually increase in intensity by the afternoon. At the surface, latest high res guidance continues to indicate the potential (over 75% chance) for sustained winds at least 20 mph and wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range across a large portion of the area.

High res guidance did trend up a degree or two in highs for today however we did nudge them back down a little to account for high clouds (highs in the upper 50s east to lower 60s west of Springfield). Surface dewpoints to the southwest remain in the lower 20s, therefore this builds confidence in what will be advecting into the area through the day. We continue to trend lower on dewpoints for today because of this. Confidence continues to increase in humidity values dropping into the 24-30% range across a large portion of the area today. There are a few high res models like the HRRR that seem to be "over mixing" today which is causing lower RH (as low as 20% in some areas) and higher wind gusts (over 45mph). We will need to closely monitor sky conditions today. If cloud cover is not as thick or if there are several breaks in the high clouds then the HRRR output could be realized, however thinking this is an outlier at this time. This is also the primary reason we held off on a Wind Advisory.

Red Flag Warning decision: While there remains uncertainty in exactly how low the RH will go today (will it hit 25% in all areas?), there were other factors that led to the decision. Fuel moisture from RAWS sites a few days back were in the 7-10% range, this along with partner feedback and areas of D2 drought indicate primed fuels for fire spread. Latest HREF guidance also indicates a high chance (greater than 75%) of wind speeds over 20mph not to mention the frequent gusts over 30mph. Even if RH values dont exactly get as low as 25% in some areas, the winds will likely compensate to still make for significant fire conditions. The Ozark Plateau also sometimes allows for areas of higher wind gusts and drying effects. Therefore a Red Flag Warning has been issued for a large part of the area except for areas generally north of Highway 54. This area may end up with more prolonged cloud cover however will need to monitor morning trends/obs as they could very well be added in.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Above Average Temperatures: Latest NBM guidance continues to show relatively small spreads (5-8 degrees) in potential highs through Saturday as warmer low level air remains in place. Highs in the 50s and 60s seem likely for Wednesday and Thursday however by Friday and Saturday there are indications that even warmer air aloft could build in (mean 850mb temps approaching 10-12C). This could lead to highs in the 70s, which are around 20 degrees above average for late February. IF that kind of warmth does materialize we will also need to monitor the fire conditions/danger.

Rain Chances Wednesday Night/Thursday: Ensemble guidance still depicts shortwave energy and a cold front dropping into the area from the northwest Wednesday night. Moisture return remains the big question with this progressive system. This could be a system where we see light rainfall/sprinkles over the area (medium to high pops but low qpf amounts). Latest NBM probs for 0.10in or more of rain are around 20-30% from Springfield to Rolla. Elevated instability probs also decreased with NBM thunder probs now less than 10 percent.

Late Weekend System/Uncertainty: Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a highly uncertain pattern for late in the weekend. It mainly revolves around a very cold airmass and strong surface high that moves from Canada into the northern US and Great Lakes region. How far south this cold airmass makes it is the primary question. This uncertainty is seen in the NBM guidance with large potential temperature spreads showing highs to be either in the 40s or 70s. Safe to say confidence is low in this pattern as clusters are depicting differing precip scenarios. We will continue to monitor this system over the coming days with current precip chances in the broad 30-50% range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with increasing high clouds today. Winds at the surface and aloft will increase rapidly after 14z this morning with surface winds around 20kts and gusts around 30kts. Low level wind shear is likely across the entire area for most of the day with it peaking this morning and then decreasing by late afternoon. Surface winds and gusts will also begin to decrease by evening however remaining out of the southwest through the entire period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ097-101. MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ068>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.