textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this morning before exiting the area this afternoon. Low chances for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain possible, a Flood Watch is still in effect.

- Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

This Morning: A strong cold front continues to push through the area early this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out. For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes it's way through the area with the front.

Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3 inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment, which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to 50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for the flash flooding potential this morning.

As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast). Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight, with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows fall into the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Wednesday: Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before dissipating.

Thursday-Friday: Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90% on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as highs return into the 70s late week.

This Weekend: Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A system continues to move through the area this morning, with associated showers and thunderstorms. Instances of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity as a result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Visibilities as low as 2 to 4 miles within thunderstorms. Widespread MVFR ceilings move into the area this morning, with heights around 1500 to 2500 feet. Further reductions in ceilings occurs with the frontal passage this afternoon, as IFR ceilings around 700 to 900 feet overspread the area. Winds become northerly behind the front. Additional scattered rain chances persist through the afternoon into the evening. IFR ceilings persist through tonight into early Wednesday morning behind the frontal passage.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-078>081.