textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe storms along and north of Highway 60 through the remainder of the overnight hours. Primary hazard of winds 55-60 mph and secondary risk of large hail to the size of quarters through 9 AM.

- Flash flooding is likely through this morning in any parts of central and western Missouri that receive more than 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in a 1-3 hour timeframe.

- Warm and muggy conditions this afternoon, with heat index values in the 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon.

- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain chances returning next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Storms are forming generally along two axes at 230 AM local: just along and north of I-70 in northern Missouri, and along a Fort Scott KS to Independence KS line to the southwest into north-central Oklahoma. Both axes are aligned with subtle 25-30kt jet streaks embedded in a larger area of southwesterly low-level flow along the northern periphery of the 850mb ridge. Expected evolution of the northern system along the I-70 corridor is for storms to continue propagating slowly eastward before pivoting and taking a southeasterly dive around the Lake of the Ozarks area and towards the Missouri Bootheel. Storms should ride generally along the instability gradient, and accelerate as they move southeast. Storm motion seems to likely take the cluster right along the edge of our CWA with LSX but mostly remain outside of our area, but bleed over into our area will be possible, especially if storms backbuild in a different direction than they're propagating.

Damaging winds will be a concern as the cluster moves across central MO, but if the complex moves further into our area, they will encounter an increasingly capped atmosphere and decreasing amounts of shear, which will decrease our organized/widespread severe risk over the next 2-4 hours. Isolated damaging winds and hail to the size of quarters cannot be ruled out completely, but it will likely be more difficult to come by as the early morning hours continue. If the cluster gets well-organized and a dominant cold pool develops, the organized damaging wind threat will be able to overcome any of the mitigating factors and sustain its severe threat into the morning hours.

Rainfall rates in these storms are between 1 to 2 inches per hour, and with one hourly flash flood guidance values between 1.4-2", it likely won't take much to get flash flooding in areas where it rains. Storms have ample moisture to work with and are efficient rainfall producers, so these rates are expected to be sustained Additional development/backbuilding will increase flash flooding risk, but this is all contingent on storms actually moving into our counties. Without storms, flood potential won't materialize.

As for the western storms near the I-49 corridor and west, outflow has raced ahead of the initial cluster of storms and updrafts have long weakened below severe limits. Additional redevelopment may be possible along the outflow, but any severe wind or hail risk with these should be isolated at best.

Some CAMs are hinting at additional redevelopment near the Missouri/Arkansas border this afternoon, but confidence in storm development and whether storms would develop far enough north that it would impact our southern counties is still low. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for today covers this conditional threat. Main hazard would be damaging winds with a secondary risk of hail to the size of ping pong balls if storms develop.

Otherwise, ridging continues building through the day today. Some remnant cloud cover from morning convection may linger over the eastern Ozarks, keeping temperatures in the low to mid-80s this afternoon, but areas further west will push into the upper 80s and even low 90s with less cloud cover. It will stay just as humid as the past few days, so heat indices in the 90s to near 100 will be possible in far southwest Missouri again this afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Ridging persists with an omega block pattern through midweek, keeping temperatures seasonably warm in the upper 70s to mid-80s into next weekend. Thankfully, a drier air mass moves in on Wednesday so it doesn't feel quite as muggy. PoPs stay below 20% until Thursday night, reflecting that global model solutions begin to diverge on the timing of the next upper-level wave. Rain could return as early as Thursday evening, or as late as Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Winds will stay south to southwesterly overnight and slowly flip out of the north by Monday afternoon. Ceilings remain VFR through the period with partly cloudy skies.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.