textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms for areas west of Highway 63 Saturday and Saturday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. Confidence in coverage is low. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week as highs in the 90s return.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The Marginal Risk for severe weather has expanded a bit further east today to include most locations west of Highway 63. Large hail and damaging winds are still the main threats. Our risk primarily comes from the activity that's occurring over SE NE early this morning. That shortwave will continue to push southeast into our area and bring us a round of showers and thunderstorms by late morning/early afternoon. The area within the Marginal Risk has the better moisture today with dewpoints in the mid 70s. MUCAPE will also be plentiful over SE KS/SW MO with values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. The main question today is the amount of lift this shortwave will have left by the time it reaches our area. A cap will be in place as it pushes through, which may limit how widespread the storms become later today. Most of the CAMs have some sort of a bowing segment forming, which would mean damaging wind gusts. Pulse thunderstorms could form ahead of the main line, which would bring our hail threat. Either way, we'll welcome the rain especially in that area where D3 drought is present.

Highs will be in the low to mid 90s today and it'll feel warm and humid again. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will remain light today. Expect most of the rain today to stick to areas mainly west of Highway 63 and for accumulations to be light < 0.50".

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Rain could occur again overnight Saturday into Sunday as another shortwave/MCS feature works its way east through southern KS. Not every model has the wave making its way east, but if it can, there is the possibility for thunderstorms in the same area as earlier in the day. This wave has a bit more lift associated with it and we have the chance for rain at 30-45%. SPC hasn't outlooked this area outside of a general thunder risk for Sunday. This isn't to say a Marginal risk wouldn't be issued, we'll just have to monitor how the convection plays out today and assess whether or not there are any leftover boundaries from this morning's convection, or if it stabilizes the atmosphere and we get nothing overnight.

A stationary front hangs out over the northern part of our CWA for most of the week and brings off and on rain chances for central MO. Blame the high pressure system sitting over the south for our area missing out on all the rain. Once that ridge begins to move east later in the week, rain chances increase to 30-40% by the end of the week. Unfortunately, not a lot of temperature changes or any signs of a cooldown coming this week. We do start to creep into the 80s towards the end of the work week, but it won't exactly feel like fall quite yet.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR through the period with southeast to southwesterly winds prevailing. Winds will remain light below 10 knots. Thunderstorms are moving south from the KC Metro early this morning and may impact JLN. There will be a break in the storms with another round possible later tonight near 06z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.