textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and non-severe storms this morning and early afternoon.

- Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for isolated severe thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this afternoon and evening. A few isolated instances of 60 mph winds and golf ball size hail possible in the strongest storms.

- Gusty southerly winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday.

- Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with all modes of severe weather threats. Primary hazards are golf ball size hail, 70-80 mph winds, and tornadoes. The greatest threats are expected along and and north of a Pittsburg, KS to Rolla, MO line where there is also a conditional threat for more significant severe threats. Flash Flooding will also be possible.

- Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday into early Thursday night, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and flash flooding are possible.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Scattered showers and non-severe storms this morning and early afternoon: - Impacts: Lightning. - Details: Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe storm this morning to mid-afternoon. - Confidence: High. Activity has already developed upwind of the area. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy has led to showers and thunderstorms over central KS early this morning. This activity will shift through this morning and early afternoon. Only lightning threats are expected with this activity.

Marginal (1 out of 5) risk today: - Impacts: A few isolated storms capable of producing up to golf ball size hail and 60 mph winds. - Details: 30-50% chance of isolated to scattered storms developing mid afternoon into the evening over far southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri. Any storms that can become established will pose a severe risk. - Confidence: Low to medium confidence in storms developing. Medium confidence in storms becoming severe if they do develop. - Meteorological Analysis: Following earlier convective activity, greater moisture pushes northeast into the southwestern CWA mid to late afternoon today. There isn't a distinct forcing mechanism, which limits confidence in storms forming and will prevent greater coverage potential. A few storms may develop (30-50% chance) and if they can become established could produce golf ball size hail and 60 mph winds, especially in left movers which are possible given nearly unidirectional 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Instability looks to rebound to 1,500-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE per HREF and REFS mean values. Activity should diminish later this evening as inhibition increases.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Gusty southerly winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday. - Impacts: Below advisory level winds, but marginal gusty wind impacts. - Details: Southerly gusts up to 30-45 mph all day Wednesday. - Confidence: High - Meteorological Analysis: A right pressure gradient, strong low level winds, and good mixing will allow for gusts of 30-45 mph. Gusts greater than 45 mph are possible (30-50% probability) west of Hwy 65 and north of I-44.

Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) severe risk Wednesday and Wednesday night: - Impacts: Golf ball size hail, 70-80 mph winds, and tornadoes. Even greater conditional threats exist over the north and northwest CWA. Flash flooding is possible where storms train. - Details: Storms developing north of the area Thursday mid afternoon, then shifting south into the overnight hours. Greatest threat and conditional probabilities for significant severe are north of a line from Pittsburg, KS to Rolla, MO. - Confidence: High confidence in seeing severe weather. Medium confidence on coverage and exact severe threats. Low confidence in threats over far southern Missouri as the storms may stall out overnight. - Meteorological Analysis: Well advertised event still on track as a strong system moves across the upper midwest. Details that have changed this forecast period include earlier arrival of the cold front and convection (now slated for mid to late afternoon) and greater clarity on storm mode and hazards. Threats will be greatest over the northern and northwestern CWA where 2,000-3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and seasonally unusual 50-60 kt deep layer shear will exist at storm initiation. Expectation is for supercells to develop along the SW to NE oriented front. Given strong arcing hodographs, right moving vectors to the ESE should allow supercells to stay ahead of the front, sustaining higher end severe threats. Low level shear is strong and nearly unidirectional, with right moving vectors allowing storms to ingest higher quality streamwise vorticity. These factors have led SPC to include conditional probabilities for higher end threats in the N/NW. An existing EML over the southwestern CWA leads to some uncertainly with coverage over the western CWA, but at this time it appears likely at least isolated storms will develop there. As storms shift south in the evening and overnight, they will lose large scale ascent while moving into a drier and more stable airmass. Thinking there is less potential for widespread upscale growth than was previously anticipated, but eastward bowing segments along the slowing front will continue to pose a wind and isolated tornado threat into the night. Overall, the severe threat is expected to decrease with southern extent, but there is limited confidence in the evolution as the storms/front move south. Models are now favoring the front to stall or at least slow substantially instead of blasting all the way through the CWA.

Marginal (level 1 out of 5) severe risk Thursday into early Thursday night: , mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and flash flooding are possible. - Impacts: Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and flash flooding. - Details: Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected throughout the day Thursday and into early Thursday night. Greatest severe threat will generally be along and south of Interstate 44. - Confidence: Medium. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy moves through on Thursday as the aforementioned cold front should be stalled over the southern CWA (uncertainly due to overnight convection). Models show 1,000-2,000 J/kg of elevated CAPE on the cold side of the front and generally 1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE on the warm side closer to the MO/AR border. Effective shear values of 40-50 kts allow for organized convection, with hodographs shows potential for splitting cells, including left movers on the cold side of the front. With the front only slowly moving south, the threat should persist much of the day and perhaps into the early overnight hours. Training convection will pose a flooding concern, especially given PWATs of 1.75-2.25 inches.

Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week: - Impacts: Unclear, but potentially a severe and flooding threat. - Details: The general pattern will become active over the weekend and remain active into early next week. While details are lacking, the general setup will allow for severe and flooding threats within the region. - Confidence: Low. - Meteorological Analysis: Pattern supportive of MCSs develops this weekend into early next week. Details related to impacts are a shorter term forecast target that we are just too far out for right now. That being said, SPC did highlight a day 5 risk just NW of the CWA for Saturday and Saturday night. Stay tuned for future updates.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today as shortwave energy moves through the region. KJLN may see a severe risk with any isolated storms that form this evening as instability increases late in the day. Large hail up to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds would be the main severe weather threats. Otherwise, outside of convection look for VFR conditions.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.