textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (40-80%) through this afternoon, before dissipating into this evening/tonight. Periods of dry time can be expected.

- Increasing confidence in the development of fog overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) on Saturday, with lower chances (20-50%) on Sunday and Memorial Day. More widespread chances (50-80%) return next Tuesday. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This Morning-This Evening: Mid-level shortwave energy continues to translate through broad southwest flow today. This will continue to spawn scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms through this morning and the afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected along and west of Highway 65. Overall, trends suggest the extent of coverage has decreased from previous runs. Rainfall amounts will generally be limited to a quarter inch or less, with highly localized amounts up to one inch. This can be gleaned from the latest HREF PMM. Given this setup, localized flash flooding does not appear to be a concern as we progress today. It is plausible that some locations remain completely dry through today. Highs in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon with widespread cloud cover persisting over the area.

Tonight: As we progress into tonight, rain chances become minimal (less than 10%). Guidance is beginning to hint at cooler temperatures and light winds giving way to fog development in the presence of saturated soils and low-level moisture. There is increasing confidence in the potential for fog to become dense in locations, perhaps widespread in nature by early Saturday morning. If trends continue through today, a Dense Fog Advisory may be warranted tonight. Check back later today for updates. Lows bottom out in the middle to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Saturday: Additional shortwave energy builds into the region on Saturday, supporting scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%). The latest trends suggest a system building out of northeast OK into southwest MO through the afternoon, and gradually moving through the area Saturday evening/night. There is a low end potential for some localized heavy rainfall and flooding given the saturated soils from previous heavy rainfall this week. Saturday will also feature the return of near average temperatures with subtle mid-level height rises into the region. Highs on Saturday return to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Sunday-Thursday: An active pattern persists into Sunday and beyond into next week with ensemble guidance highlighting a series of shortwaves progged to translate through the central CONUS. Guidance vary on exact timing and location of each wave, and thus the extent of rain chances and coverage. Nonetheless, additional rain chances remain in the forecast through much of next week, including Memorial Day on Monday. It worth noting, Sunday and Monday feature lower rain chances (20-50%). With that being said, there will be periods of dry time and all day washouts are currently not expected. The highest rain chances (50-80%) are centered on Tuesday of next week. The environment remains marginal at best, with severe weather not expected to be in play at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light rain is falling over far southwest Missouri tonight and will continue for the next few hours. Ceilings are currently at VFR, but will lower to MVFR/IFR near 08z. Ceilings remain low during most of the day on Friday while winds stay below 10 knots and out of the southeast. Rain begins again by late morning and ends by the afternoon. VFR returns briefly as clouds break during the evening. Models have fog forming by late Friday night after 06z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.