textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures today through early next week.

- Dry weather will persist through at least Monday afternoon.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation in the Feb 12th to 18th period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

High and mid-level clouds were moving across the region this afternoon with additional middle and high clouds expected to move across the region as noted in CONUS water vapor imagery and forecast relative humidity plots. There may be periods of partial clearing throughout the afternoon. With surface ridging south and east of the Ozarks, west-southwest winds will increase into the afternoon. The strongest winds will be west of the Highway 65 corridor where the pressure gradient is strongest allowing for winds to be sustained between 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph.

With the cloud cover expected, while generally thin and with breaks, did knock a degree or two off this afternoons high temperatures as the region got off to a slow start this morning. This was noted in the temperature spreads for today in the ensembles with potential highs in the 25th to 75th spreads of 5-6 degrees from upper 40s to middle 50s for todays highs.

This trend continues into tonight with similar temperature spreads and as a result, went ahead and dropped overnight temperatures a degree or two as well. Some high clouds will continue to move over the region overnight but should have little impact on the regions weather.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Synoptic and ensemble models show an amplified upper level ridging over the southern Plains into the northern Rockies will modify and move east into this weekend. This pattern change will bring a warming trend to the Plains and the Ozarks, though a dry cold front will move through the region Friday, with little impacts. Surface high pressure will slide down the eastern side of the upper level ridge for Saturday as models have a cut off upper low moving east under the ridge into the Baja Mexico region.

Ensemble models spreads for the weekend and into early next week continue to suggest a warmer than seasonal period in store for the region. For this time of the year, average daily highs run in the middle to upper 40s. Current model temperature spreads by Sunday afternoon are in the lower to middle 60s and by Monday and Tuesday next week high temperature spreads are in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Much of the temperatures will depend on the strength of the ridge as it moves east, but despite its ultimate strength, temperatures will be from 15 to 20 degrees warmer than seasonable highs to start next week.

Thanks to the ridging and mainly dry flow, a period of dry weather is in store for the Ozarks with a lack of any significant short waves or lift through the weekend. Precipitation chances remain less than 10% through Monday afternoon as a result.

Ensembles have continue to show the aforementioned close upper level low moving out of the Pacific southwest early next week. Guidance keeps indicating the upper low opening into an upper level wave as it move into the southern Plains Tuesday. As this occurs, moisture return into the Ozarks will be ongoing along with lift thanks to a surface low and cold front that develop and move east across the Plains. This will bring the next potential for rain chances.

Extended global guidance remains indicative of a potential pattern change to a more active stretch of weather as we head into the middle of the month. Some of the teleconnection indicies would support this as well, but it is far too early to single out any one model as the right one at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Middle to high cloud cover was moving across the region through this afternoon and overnight tonight. Limited moisture in the atmosphere will keep visibilities and ceilings VFR thanks to northwesterly flow aloft. In the middle level flow, a 40-50kt low level jet will move through the area overnight into Friday morning. This will likely allow for low level wind shear to impact the areas airfields.

Surface winds will become breezy into this afternoon for airfields along and north of the Ozarks Plateau including KJLN and KSGF with gusty winds continuing into tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.