textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for south-central and southwest Missouri, and extreme southeast Kansas beginning 11 AM today, and lasting through 8 PM Tuesday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can be expected during this period.

- A stalled frontal boundary northwest of the area brings low 15-40% chances of rain northwest of I-44 through the week, with a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe weather clipping portions of west and central Missouri on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A few high level clouds are lingering around the area early this morning associated with the surface low to our west and to the stationary boundary to our south. Overnight temperatures have been warm in the upper 60s to mid 70s. There is a bit of convection occurring over NW MO, but the track of the low should keep most of the rain just north of us out of our area. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 11 AM today for south-central and southwest Missouri, and extreme southeast Kansas for heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. The advisory continues into Tuesday evening, but may need to be extended in future forecast updates. Highs today will be in the 90s with mostly clear skies and gusty southerly winds near 20 mph. Be sure to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water if spending long periods of time outside this week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A cold front will linger over central MO for the rest of the week and bring intermittent rain chances to that area. Most of the area will remain dry and hot for the rest of the week due to a high pressure system that will situate itself over the southeast CONUS.

There may be a shortwave on Tuesday that brings rain a bit further south (30-60%), that's where the Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather comes in. Right now, wind seems to be the main threat with any severe storms and those storms should stay confined to areas along and north of I-44. We'll have plenty of lift and instability due to the front and deep-layer shear will be adequate near 30 knots. Though, the better environment for severe weather will likely be further north, outside of our CWA.

Towards the end of the work week is when the high pressure system begins to push further east and when rain chances attempt to become more widespread. There has already been a decrease in rain chances later this week which may indicate that the ridge sticks around a bit longer than anticipated. Rain chances becoming more widespread will be determined by the behavior of the ridge. If the ridge stays put, it'll be more difficult to get rain any further south than central MO. Highs will be in the 90s this week with temperatures lowering into the 80s for next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR through the period with gusty southerly winds. Will increase to 20 knots by late morning and diminish to 10 knots after sunset.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ066>068-077>082-088>098-101>106.