textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy today through Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph each afternoon.

- Potential for severe weather today and Monday has decreased. Latest expectation is that severe storm chances stay southwest of our area until Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the week.

- Forecast precipitation totals for the week trending down, with decreasing confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: A warm front is draped across the Midwest to our north, extending southeast off of a developing surface low in central South Dakota with an associated shortwave impulse clipping across the Northern Plains. A stronger, more dynamic longwave trough is slowly moving inland off the Pacific, with the Plains experiencing broad southwesterly flow between the trough and widespread ridging over the eastern third of the US. An MCS is developing along the axis of this southwesterly low-level jet in the Plains, and this storm complex is moving northeast towards the Ozarks.

Sunday's conditions will be dependent on the behavior of this MCS as it arrives in our area. Most short-range models anticipate the complex arriving at the Missouri/Kansas state line between 6-8am, though models do differ in the behavior of the complex as the morning progresses. MPAS-based models like the RRFS suggest a wet morning across the area as several clusters of showers and thunderstorms push north through Missouri, with coverage diminishing through the day as the storms enter a more stable environment. Additional redevelopment behind the trailing edge will be possible late this morning into early afternoon as a 40-50kt low-level jet streak noses into the area, but even with redevelopment, coverage is still expected to be on an overall downtrend as the afternoon hours progress.

Models are in good agreement that the instability to support strong and continued convection will lag behind the available sources of lift, so regardless of how the morning convection evolves, our ingredients are not well-aligned in time to support deep convection. Rumbles of thunder may even be few and far between with the limited available instability. For this reason, severe weather chances have been lowered for this afternoon again, with the SPC Marginal Risk being removed from our area entirely.

A tightened synoptic pressure gradient as the low in the Northern Plains strengthens further will cause winds to increase to 15-25 mph by this afternoon, with gusts up to 30-40 mph. The cold pool of the MCS may locally enhance the pressure gradient, gusts up to 45 mph may be possible as well. Strongest winds will be along and north of I-44, especially in areas west of Highway 65.

Temperatures today will be closely tied to the incoming system. Currently have highs in the low 70s in areas west of Highway 65 and mid to upper 70s to the west of Highway 65. Depending on timing of storms and strength of evaporative cooling with the rainfall, some places may reach their highs in the late morning/early afternoon just before storms reach them (middle portions of the forecast area would be where to watch for that).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Monday's severe weather outlook has also been downgraded from a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk to a general thunderstorm risk (no severe risk). As 700-500mb lapse rates increase to 7-8C/km with an influx of warm, dry air from the Rockies, a very robust cap will develop. While the environment does look supportive of strong to severe storms otherwise, all signs point to the capping inversion being far too stout to overcome, which will limit shower and thunderstorm chances to 20% or less all day. Monday is looking like a dry day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies all day. Gusty winds will continue Monday, gusting up to 30-40 mph in areas just north of the plateau and to the west of Highway 65 again.

Tuesday will see the severe weather potential improve and increase. Confidence in occurrence of severe weather on Tuesday compared to previous cycles is about the same. There are still a lot of remaining questions surrounding storm development. If storms can develop, they will have ample instability (2000-3000+ J/kg SBCAPE), surface-based storms with clockwise hodographs, and 30-40kts of bulk shear to tap into. However, there will still be a considerable cap to overcome in order for storms to develop in the afternoon and early evening. Model soundings show a loaded gun profile developing by the afternoon hours, which is a consistent trend over the last few model runs. Storms will likely develop upstream of us during the late evening and overnight hours into Wednesday, which would not have the "development" issue anticipated with afternoon storms, so if storms can get organized by the time they move into our area, an overnight severe risk would also exist. Synoptic winds will diminish some on Tuesday, gusting up to 30-35 mph to the west of Highway 65, but it will still be a bit gusty.

Confidence is higher in severe weather on Wednesday than any other day this week, with the big trough finally pushing across the Rockies and into the Plains. How AM convection will impact the afternoon severe risk remains TBD, but a cold front advancing into the area will provide ample lift within a warm, moist environment for scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development ahead of the front. While Tuesday's confidence revolves around the mesoscale environment, confidence in severe storms on Wednesday depends on the upper-level trough's movement and speed as it ejects across the Plains, with timing being the biggest uncertainty. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist into Wednesday night and Thursday.

Severe potential, and just overall rain chances, are lower on Thursday, with rain chances themselves only in the 20-35% range. Friday may be another day to keep an eye on, with the next trough ejection upstream expected sometime between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Continued moist southwesterly flow and another surface low developing in the Northern Plains puts us back in the SPC Day 6 convective outlook, with 15% chances of severe weather on Friday again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Primary hazards for the period: widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, gusty southerly winds 25-30kts, LLWS from low-level jet (mostly at KJLN), and briefly MVFR cigs associated with precip.

Widespread showers with embedded storms will move in from the central Plains after 12Z, with low to medium confidence in timing and duration at TAF sites. Most likely scenario sees rain as prevailing wx, with some uncertainty surrounding the strength of the storms when they arrive (i.e. whether they'll have lightning/thunder or not). AM storms may decrease in coverage as they move further east, which would create the potential for additional thunderstorm redevelopment behind the leading line of storms in the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 16: KSGF: 86/2006 KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 12: KSGF: 63/1972 KJLN: 71/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 66/1972

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.