textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds will occur today through Tuesday, with southerly winds gusting up to 30-40 mph at times each afternoon.

- There is the potential for severe thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday into Saturday.

- Forecast precipitation totals for the week trending down, with decreasing confidence in heavy rainfall and flooding this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

An upper level disturbance is lifting northeast across the region this afternoon. Scattered showers will occur at times the rest of this afternoon, ending across the eastern Ozarks this evening as this activity pushes east across the area. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon/early evening, but overall instability is limited and a cap is in place which will limit coverage of any thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening.

The clouds and rain have kept temperatures cooler this afternoon with readings in the middle 60s to lower 70s currently. Some breaks in the clouds will be possible across the western portions of the area and could see temperatures warm more into the 70s where these breaks can occur late this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds are also occurring across the area today. Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will continue to occur at times into early this evening. Winds will weaken slightly this evening and tonight but gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue through tonight. Lows will only cool into the middle to lower 60s tonight as cloudy skies and breezy winds occur.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

An upper level trough will dig south along the west coast tonight into the southwestern U.S. on Monday. An upper level ridge will build over the region east of the trough on Monday. A warm air mass will be in place as highs warm into the lower to middle 80s on Monday. Some weak instability that is uncapped may develop across far south central Missouri Monday afternoon and an isolated shower/storm may be possible. Overall a strong cap will remain in place across much of the area on Monday, and with the better upper level support and lift well west of the area much of the day should remain dry. Gusty southerly winds will occur across the area again on Monday as gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times.

The upper level trough will move northeast into the western Plains Tuesday night. An area of surface low pressure will move east across the central Plains on Tuesday with a dry line moving east into central/eastern Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dry line will then stall if not push back to the west some Tuesday night. Storms will likely develop along the dry line and move off the dry line to the northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening. The question is just how far east these storms make it, with the dry line and upper level trough remaining to the west. The instability axis and weaker cap will likely make it to the western portions of the area so these storms will likely make it to the area Tuesday evening and night. Theta-E difference will increase and with instability increase and a weak cap there is the potential enough storms could develop across eastern Kansas where a cold pool could develop a a MCS which could then race to the east. But with the better upper level support to the west, instability could still weaken to the east with more showers occurring further east if a cold pool and MCS does develop Tuesday evening and night. If a cold pool does not develop coverage in storms will be more scattered in nature mainly impacting the northwestern portions of the forecast area. Bottom line there will be the potential for severe storms Tuesday evening and night, mainly west of Highway 65 and especially along and west of I-49.

The upper level trough will lift northeast into Iowa and Minnesota on Wednesday and will push the frontal boundary to the east into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Storms will once again develop along the front. With the upper level trough lifting north the front will likely stall across our area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Storms will once again develop along the front and move off to the northeast. There will again be the potential for a cold pool to develop creating a complex of storms that pushes east across the area Wednesday evening and night. Severe storms will once again be possible on Wednesday especially along and northwest of I-44 closer to the stalled front and closer to the upper level trough to the north, but if a cold pool does develop a risk could push into south central Missouri.

Another upper level trough will move southeast across the Plains on Friday and across the region on Saturday. The trough will push a cold front through the region from late Friday into Saturday morning. The ensemble model members continue to differ on the exact timing of the front, some bring it into the area late Friday evening and through the area Friday night while the slower members bring it through Friday night into Saturday morning. The front will sweep through the area and with the upper level trough moving through the region with the front, better forcing will occur with a line of showers and storms likely along the front. The question is just how much instability can develop, especially with the overnight/morning time. Shear will increase across the region which will lead to a risk for severe storms late Friday into Saturday with this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR (1.5-2.5kft) ceilings are spread across the area early in the period, with some high clouds also moving out to the southeast. MVFR to continue until early this afternoon, when ceilings will improve to VFR.

Southerly winds 10-20kts through the period, with gusts up to 30-35kts at times this afternoon (up to 25kts at BBG, which sees lower winds due to the terrain). LLWS is a concern at JLN early in the period as well in conjunction with a strengthening nocturnal LLJ.

CLIMATE

Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KVIH: 87/2025

April 14: KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 16: KSGF: 86/2006 KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 12: KSGF: 63/1972 KJLN: 71/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 66/1972

April 13: KSGF: 65/1890 KJLN: 70/1972 KUNO: 63/1972 KVIH: 62/1981

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.