textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower and storm chances (5-40%) linger into tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage. - Near-normal temperatures in the 70s to near 80 beginning Tuesday, with seasonably pleasant and dry conditions continuing through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: The cold front has dropped south through much of the area as of 230 AM this morning, with some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lingering on radar. 00Z upper air analysis reveals that the shortwave aloft lags far behind the front, with the 500mb closed low near the Black Hills of South Dakota. Some patchy fog is also developing early this morning as the cooler air mass settles into the region and reaches saturation and winds begin to calm.

Rain Chances Rest of Today: The front will push through the remainder of the Eastern Ozarks by late morning, and the best rain chances will exit the area with it. The upper-level low will continue moving eastward into the Midwest as the day progresses, sending additional weak upper-level energy impulses across our region today and tonight. A weak, inverted surface pressure trough will develop between the sfc trough to our south and the center of the upper-level energy to our north, which could assist in the development of scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon into this evening (15-35% chances). Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

Cloud cover is expected to remain in place through the day today, which will moderate temperatures and keep conditions a few degrees cooler. Daytime highs range from mid-70s in central Missouri to mid-80s in far south-central Missouri. Low temperatures tonight in the low 60s will be near/at saturation, so additional patchy fog development may occur again tonight, especially around areas that received rainfall on Sunday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Some hi-res guidance is suggesting that there may be some additional pop-up showers/storm chances continuing into Tuesday, but capped rain chances at locally 10-20% due to overall subsidence expected to be in place behind the upper-level disturbance.

Long-range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper- level low will stall and strengthen over the northeast US by the end of the week. The ridging over the Southern Plains that was flattened by this weekend's shortwave intrusion will build back to the north through the week, with the potential for several embedded shortwaves to ride atop the ridge between now and next weekend. The upper air pattern is a little messy between now and Wednesday, which causes some uncertainty later in the period with respect to what happens as various open waves are absorbed into the polar jet, but it appears that the next big trough will push into the West Coast later this week and begin de-amplifying the ridge, with a return of 15-30% PoPs to our far western counties Thursday night into Friday. When the ridge does start getting broken down later this week, our next rainfall chances will return, but much still TBD with respect to when and whether widespread measurable rainfall can be expected.

Northerly flow will prevent significant changes in temperatures most of the week, with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s through Friday and overnight lows in the 50s. Temperature spreads begin to increase on Saturday and beyond as model solutions diverge on the evolution of the dominant ridge aloft.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Ceilings will hover between IFR/LIFR through late morning. Heights increase into MVFR around 18z and reach VFR by this afternoon near 20z. Ceilings will drop into IFR/LIFR again overnight into early Tuesday morning around 10z. Winds remain light less than 10 knots out of the northwest.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.