textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will occur today and Sunday. The greatest coverage will be on Sunday across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. - Hot and humid conditions build across the area Sunday through Tuesday. Maximum afternoon heat index values will approach 100-108 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Broad ridging persists aloft today with surface high pressure across the Gulf coast producing continued warm, humid conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

Isolated Showers and Storms Today:

Models show a weak cap persisting through much of the day and much of the area today, which will limit the overall coverage. Above the cap, long and skinny thermo profiles may support isolated convective initiation and storms capable of producing lightning and brief heavy downpours. Much of the forecast area will remain dry, however, and PoPs are limited to 20%. A weak northwest to southeast oriented cold front will stall somewhere across northern and central Missouri tonight, and a few models depict isolated elevated convection lingering along this boundary.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered Storms Linger into Sunday:

The aforementioned cold front will remain stalled from northern to southeastern Missouri on Sunday. Diurnal heating may act to reinvigorate convection along this boundary in the afternoon. Precipitation chances are their relative highest across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, where 30-50% PoPs exist.

Heat Builds Early Next Week:

Forecast temperatures tick up each day Sunday through Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts to the east. With a continued moist and humid airmass, heat index values will start to approach Heat Advisory criteria. Looking at forecast soundings, it's possible NBM is overdoing temperatures and/or dew points slightly by undercooking the mixing potential. With current forecast maximum heat indices in the 100-108 degree range (marginal advisory criteria), confidence was too low to issue any headlines at this point.

Seasonable Temperatures Return Mid-week:

Global ensembles depict fairly good agreement in dropping an upper-level low out of eastern Canada and into the northeastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which will act to bring a cold front through the Missouri Ozarks. More seasonable temperatures and a drier airmass will move in behind the front, resulting in more pleasant feeling conditions and very low precipitation chances (<20%).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR flight conditions through most of the period as a cumulus field overspreads the area this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorms remains possible, but the extent of coverage remains too low to depict in TAFs at this time. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots, turning lighter tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.