textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move over the area this afternoon, evening and overnight. There is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms. The highest chance for severe storms is between 4pm and midnight. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds are the most likely hazards if severe storms form. There is a lower chance for tornadoes, mainly north and west of Springfield near the front.

- A Flood Watch is in effect tonight for locations along and north of a Nevada to Versailles line. 1-2 inches of rainfall will be common in this area with localized amounts of 3-5 inches. Areas outside of the watch will see less than one inch.

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur Thursday morning, especially along and west of Highway 65. There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday evening however confidence in storm development is low. - Another round of storms (some severe) are expected Friday night into Saturday morning. The highest chances for severe storms are expected along and northwest of Interstate 44.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could cause frost to form if winds are light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the area in a broad southwest flow aloft with a strong shortwave moving through the Rockies. The 12Z KSGF sounding exhibited a weakly capped and unstable environment however wind shear remained low (30kts or less). A stationary front remains along and perhaps just north of the Highway 54 corridor with temps in the low 60s north of the front with low 80s along the Arkansas border. Given the weak cap, scattered storms have developed at times today however storm organization has remained poor with messy clusters/pulse like qualities.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tonight: Mesoanalysis and forecasts does show strong mid level winds and therefore higher wind shear just to the west of the area. Latest guidance suggests that as this spreads into the area this evening, any additional storms that form should become more organized. Forecast soundings for mid to late evening suggest wind shear closer to 40kts with ML CAPE around 1000j/kg. Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur in this environment with large hail and damaging winds the most likely hazards. Given the stationary front over northern portions of the area, we will need to monitor for any storms that can become rooted on the front. This could increase low level helicity enough for a tornadic threat however its highly conditional/uncertain.

Another area of storms to watch will be an area of thunderstorms that will form in more of a north to south (linear) fashion from south central Kansas into central Oklahoma. These storms may move into the area after 10pm and mainly affect locations along and west of I-49. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are all potential hazards with this line of storms as it moves in. There is considerable uncertainty on how long the storms maintain organization as they move east through the area overnight. Some guidance weakens it substantially. We will need to monitor this threat through the evening.

Flooding Potential: There is increasing confidence that a corridor of heavy rainfall (due to repeated storms) will occur just north of the stationary front. Latest HREF guidance shows 1-2 inches common/mean with pockets of 3-5 inches in a very narrow corridor. However this corridor is highly susceptible to where the front will be and could shift north or south. Therefore locations along and north of a Nevada to Versailles line will be close enough to this area and we have included them in a Flood Watch that runs from tonight through Thursday morning. It should be noted that south of the heavy rainfall band, much lower rainfall amounts will occur with some areas of south of I-44 seeing very little rainfall (less than 0.25in).

Non Thunderstorm Winds: The area of showers and storms will be moving east of the area Thursday morning. The western areas looks to see some clearing Thursday morning. A surface low will deepen northwest of the area and an increasing pressure gradient will lead to gusty southwest winds will mix down to the surface. Bufkit momentum transfers suggest 40-45mph wind gusts at the surface Thursday morning, especially along and west of Highway 65. We may need a Wind Advisory if confidence increases in this threat.

Severe Potential Thursday/Thursday Night: There remains considerable uncertainty on if storms will develop over the area Thursday afternoon or evening along the front. Most of the upper level forcing looks to stay north of the area however a few CAMS do show storms trying to form east of Highway 63 and then intensifying as they move east of the area. We will have to monitor this potential with future updates.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Severe Potential Friday: A strong upper trough will move into the central plains. A strong pacific front will also sweep through the plains, forcing an extensive squall line to form to our west and move through Friday night (potentially overnight). Latest CAPE/Shear combo probs suggest the potential for both a damaging wind and spinup/QLCS tornado threat. Therefore we will need to monitor forecast trends for Friday night.

Cooler Temps/Frost Potential Sunday and Monday Mornings: A much cooler and drier airmass will build into the area from the northwest. Latest NBM has a 30-50% (low to moderate) chance of temps dropping below 36 degrees both those mornings therefore we will need to monitor for frost formation if winds are light enough.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Overall a low confidence thunderstorm thunderstorm TAF forecast since there will be isolated, pop up storms this afternoon and evening with slightly higher chances overnight. Therefore we went the prob30 route for thunderstorm potential and expect additional amendments today/tonight. The BBG area has the lowest chance of seeing thunderstorms today/tonight. During any thunderstorms, conditions could briefly drop into the MVFR range (ceilings and vis). Southerly winds will be gust at times however the higher gusts 20-35kts will occur Thursday morning. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites Thursday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon for MOZ055-056-066-067.