textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday as daily heat index values climb to around 100 to 105 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows in the 70s. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours today through Saturday. Coverage/probability is less than 30 percent each day. There is the potential for a few strong storms with gusty winds as the main risk, but confidence is low at this time.

- Additional storm chances (20-60%) will be possible across the area at times from late this weekend into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS, with the upper high centered over the TN/OH Valley regions. This continues to place our area on the western periphery of the ridging pattern, with southwesterly winds aloft. Another toasty day is in store, as observations show temperatures as of 1PM in the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak heating leading to a few more degrees added over the next couple hours, topping out in the low 90s. With heat indices climbing into the upper 90s/low 100s, the Heat Advisory remains in effect for all areas today through Saturday. Visible satellite imagery showed some high- level clouds filtering through the area during the morning/early afternoon hours, with a cumulus field developing over a large portion of the CWA.

As we continue through the remainder of the day, isolated showers/thunderstorms will continue to be possible (10-30%). Taking a look at the 12Z sounding, ample instability is in place, with a convective temperature of 88 degrees (which we've already met in most locations). This will lead to isolated thunderstorms, with limited coverage as they'll be more pulse- like in nature. 1PM radar imagery depicts a couple showers already beginning to develop, however any activity is expected to remain sub- severe, with gusts up to 50mph as the primary threat as storms collapse.

With these shower/storm chances being diurnal in nature, any activity should diminish by sunset, with scattered cloud cover beginning to clear out overnight. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70s tonight, leading to little relief from the heat.

Friday will be a similar day to today, with highs topping out in the low 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s/low 100s. Another chance for isolated summertime pulse-like thunderstorms exists Friday afternoon through early evening, with coverage/probabilities remaining limited (<20%).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Heading into the weekend, the ridging pattern to our east will continue to push away from the area, with brief pseudo-zonal flow setting up over the area. A weak upper level disturbance looks to push through on Saturday, with convection developing over the Plains Friday night/early Saturday morning and moving towards the Ozarks. This should weaken before reaching our area however, with any impacts remaining very limited (<20% in our far northwest counties). Resulting outflow boundaries from this activity could push into the area during the morning, acting as a lifting mechanism for additional isolated showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours. Similar to the isolated pulse storms today and tomorrow, any stronger storm will have the potential to produce gusty winds as it collapses.

Temperatures will once again be hot on Saturday, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s for most locations, and heat indices in the upper 90s/low 100s. The NWS HeatRisk tool continues to highlight the entire area in either a Moderate or Major risk of heat-related impacts into Saturday. With the heat continuing into a holiday in which many will be outside, decided to extend the Heat Advisory through 8PM Saturday. Those planning on spending time outdoors need to take the proper precautions to stay safe from the heat.

Saturday night, an upper level disturbance looks to move through the Plains, leading to convective development that's progged to push towards the area overnight in the form of a developed MCS. There's a chance (20-50%) that this could remain intact by the time it reaches us before sunrise Sunday morning, in which a Marginal severe risk (with damaging winds up to 60mph as the main hazard) would be on the table. There's still many uncertainties regarding the storm track, as this would be determined based on where storms can develop, so will need to continue assessing this potential with future forecast updates.

Looking ahead to the end of the weekend and into next week, several upper level disturbances look to push through the area, bringing 20-50% daily chances of afternoon showers/storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Light southerly winds will occur overnight and increase some during the day on Friday and could be gusty at times. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late Friday morning into the early evening hours. There could be a few isolated storms developing during the afternoon/early evening hours on Friday. Coverage will be very limited so confidence is very low on a TAF site being impacted.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.