textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero this morning and Monday night.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected between 11 AM and 4 PM today, with some patchy areas approaching Red Flag criteria for less than 2 hours.

- Isolated non-impactful flurries possible again today.

- Temperatures rebound to near to slightly above average during the middle of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The synoptic pattern has barely budged in the past 24 hours with longwave troughing over the entire eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Based on mid-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis, an amplified shortwave at the base of the longwave extends from IL/IN down toward the Houston, TX area. Much like yesterday, additional small compact shortwaves can be seen diving through the backside of the trough in the northern Plains and central Canada. At the surface, a barrage of cold fronts is stretched across the eastern CONUS, with the latest to drop through currently placed over north Texas into east Arkansas, putting surface high pressure across the Ozarks. This has ushered in cold air to our area, with current temperatures in the single digits or right around 10 degrees. Stations are already reportingwind chills around 0 F. Never fear, though: Associated with the next compact shortwave, the Rocky Mountain front range stationary boundary is starting to advance eastward as a warm front.

Overnight and morning wind chills around zero through Monday:

With surface high pressure sagging through the region, winds are currently rather weak. However, low temperatures are still on track to be in the single digits. Therefore, even a 5-10 mph wind will produce wind chills between -5 to 10 F this morning before 8 AM. After 8 AM, solar insolation and southwesterly winds will begin warming temperatures into the middle 30s across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

Another cold front will surge south through the region tonight, bringing breezier winds tonight into Monday morning. While the winds will keep low temperatures a tad warmer in the lower to middle teens, the increased wind speeds will bring another round of -5 to 10 F wind chills tonight into Monday morning.

Elevated fire weather conditions expected for a few hours today:

The weather will be fast and loose today with multiple boundaries moving through in a short amount of time. Firstly, a warm front is forecast to move through the area between 11 AM and 3 PM. As the warm front moves through, winds will increase to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph, slowly shifting from southwesterly to westerly. Temperatures will warm slightly, but moisture will be lagging slightly behind. This will keep minimum relative humidity values between 20-30%.

Since yesterday, short-range models have backed off on higher confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria. This is due to a trend towards a later warm front passage and increased cloud cover/flurry potential resulting in slightly lower high temperatures today. This has also led to a forecast where the highest winds are west of Highway 65 while the driest air is east of Highway 65 during the peak daylight hours. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected today, with only a low chance (10-30%) of isolated pockets briefly reaching Red Flag criteria right as the warm front passes. Any locations that reach criteria would only be there for less than 2 hours before the warm front exits that area and slightly higher moisture fills in.

Non-impactful flurries possible again today:

The shortwave diving south through the backside of the longwave trough mimics the pattern seen yesterday. As such, some isolated to scattered flurries are once again possible as the shortwave moves through. This looks most likely between 6 AM and 12 PM this morning ahead of the warm front, then again between 6 PM and midnight this evening with the cold front as low-level clouds move through the area with each of these boundaries. No impacts are expected with these.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Temperatures rebound to near to slightly above average mid-week:

Following the barrage of shortwaves and frontal boundaries, ensembles then bring the path of the next waves a bit further north of the area, keeping the jet stream also north of our area. This will initiate southerly flow and bring in near to slightly above normal temperatures for the middle of the week. Highs will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s Tuesday through Friday. For reference, normal highs for this time of year are between 40 and 45 F.

Pattern favors potential weekend system despite high uncertainty:

The past few forecast packages, we've been monitoring the potential for the next system to move through late this week into the weekend. Reiterating from before, ensemble clusters have been in fairly good agreement on the longwave pattern continuing to have a closed upper-level low over east-central Canada with troughing (albeit flatter troughing) across the central and east CONUS. The clusters reveal great disparity between timing and positioning of any shortwaves, however. Therefore, not much can be said on the timing, location, and resulting precipitation of the next system other than that there is general agreement in a pattern favoring a system at some point late in the week into the weekend. A look at both LREF ensembles and AI ensembles seem to place any QPF footprint along the Lower Mississippi into the Ohio River Valleys, which would generally favor a precipitation type transition zone in or around our CWA. That said, again, exact positioning and timing will be key on what type of precipitation we get and when. Currently, the best chance is around 20-40% Friday night, with other potential timings being Friday, Saturday, Saturday night (10-15% chance), or even perhaps later with the newest global deterministic model runs trending later than Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Medium confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entire TAF period. Main aviation concern is continued breezy winds, starting to increase to 13-18 kts out of the southwest after 08-11Z. Gusts up to 20-30 kts will be possible at times between 14-00Z, but especially between 16-21Z as a boundary moves through the area. This boundary will shift winds back to northwesterly, diminishing to 5-10 kts after 00Z.

Mostly scattered low to mid-level clouds will pass through the area, with >90% chances for levels to stay above 3kft. Between 01-06Z, there is a low 20-30% chance for some SCT to BKN MVFR cigs to pass through the region. Confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Also with this passage, some flurries would be possible, but these would not impact flight categories.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.