textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across portions of central Missouri.

- More widespread in nature showers and storms will move through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday. The is a Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms with this activity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface high pressure is over the region early this morning. A cooler air mass is also in place as temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 40s across the area with light winds. The area of surface high pressure is starting to move off to the southeast and southerly winds will return across the area from west to east this morning. Temperature will not much cool much more across the western portions of the area as the southerly winds return. The southerly winds will return last across the eastern Ozarks will temperatures will cool into the upper 30s with some more protected areas dropping into the middle 30s. Some patchy frost will remain possible early this morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks.

The pressure gradient will tighten across the area today as the area of surface high pressure moves off to the east and surface low pressure moves across the plains. Winds gust up to 30 mph will occur at times this morning into this evening, especially for locations along and west of Highway 65 today. The southerly winds will usher in a warmer air mass today as highs warm into the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.

A warm front will set up across central Missouri late this afternoon into this evening as an upper level disturbance moves east across northern Missouri. A cap will be in place across much of the area and no storms will occur in this area of capping. But along and just north of the front the cap will weaken and isolated to scattered storms will be possible, and strong storms with small hail will be possible. If the front remains to the north of the area the storms would too. It is possible the cap weakens across central Missouri including the Lake of the Ozark region. If this occur the isolated storms would be possible across the area.

The surface low will move east across the central Plains on Monday and a front will move southeast out of the northern Plains as the low moves east. The front will move north of the area through much of Monday which most of the day being dry. There could be a few light rain showers early Monday as the upper level disturbance moves east across the area. Highs will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday. Gusty southerly winds will occur again on Monday as gusts up to 30 mph occur.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The front will move southeast into and through the area late Monday night into Tuesday. There are still some timing issue among the models on the front. Some start bringing it in as early as late Monday evening and other not until Tuesday. Showers and storms will develop along the front as it moves through the area. Modest MUCAPE will develop as deep layer shear increases with the system. Therefore some strong to severe storms will be possible with hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph the main risks. Storms will move from northwest to southeast across the area area early as Monday evening, exiting the area to the south as late as Tuesday evening.

Showers and a few storms will linger behind the front at times Tuesday into Wednesday as the front stalls to the south of the area and an upper level trough moves east across the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will occur through the TAF period. Light winds will occur tonight, with winds increasing out of the south to southwest Sunday morning and being gusty at times into the evening hours. Low level wind shear will be possible late Sunday evening. There is a low chance for an isolated shower/storm across portions central MO Sunday afternoon/evening, chances and coverage are both low and if any convection can develop it would remain north of the TAF sites.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.