textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A few storms may remain during the rest of the overnight hours as they move northeast out of southeast KS.

- Severe thunderstorm redevelopment likely Monday afternoon and evening for locations east of Highway 65, with a greater Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk east of Highway 63. Large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes are all possible.

- Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in far south-central Missouri. Large hail is the main hazard with a secondary damaging wind risk.

- Localized flooding may occur with any training storms this weekend into Tuesday. A corridor of slightly higher flooding potential could develop along and north of Highway 54 tonight into Monday.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday and onward.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

An upper low has lifted northeast out of Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba. Mid-level shortwave energy was pushing into the central plains and has initiated additional severe storms over Kansas. Storm motions were lifting northeast and the eastern sections of the convection over Kansas may affect our far western CWA during the remainder of the overnight hours. At the surface, a warm front was bisecting the CWA with temperatures still in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

Strong to severe storms likely today: Mid level shortwave will begin to track northeast and across Missouri today. Surface low and a cold front slightly ahead of the mid level shortwave will also track across the area today and will interact with increasing instability throughout the day. Storms are likely to reinitiate after midday as the instability increases ahead of the boundary. The environment ahead of the front looks favorable for supercells to develop with all modes of severe storms possible including very large hail and tornadoes. The most favorable area over our CWA for severe storms looks to be along and east of the U.S. 65 corridor where an enhanced risk(3 of 5) exits. Most of the severe storms should clear the area by the mid to late evening. Localized flooding will be possible for any storms that can move across the same locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Tuesday: Behind the mid level shortwave, we remain in southwesterly flow which will keep the front from making it too far to the south, possibly stalling over northern AR or southern MO. Additional convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across southern sections of Missouri. A large hail and damaging wind risk would be the main risks with any severe storms on Tuesday.

A drier air mass will then move into the area on Wednesday as the cold front shifts south of the area. This should keep the remainder of the long term mostly dry with the main qpf associated with a late week system remaining to our south.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For the 12z TAFS, convection out of the area (for now). As the mid-level shortwave begins to kick out to the northeast, a surface low and front will track across the area. Redevelopment of storms will be possible along the front mainly this afternoon and evening most likely east of JLN but have included prob30s for SGF/BBG with scattered development expected. Could initially see some MVFR ceilings this morning, but should become VFR by mid morning. If storms move over the terminal locations this afternoon/evening some MVFR/IFR will be possible with the storms. Winds will be quite gusty today ahead of the front with gusts up to 30 kts possible and will veer from southerly to southwesterly, eventually to northerly behind the front this evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.