textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of storms will continue progressing eastward tonight. The severe threat will be rather isolated, though the environment will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and a spin-up tornado if any storm can strengthen enough. - Additional 60-90% chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning with the main cold front passage. No severe weather expected.

- Cooler temperatures mid-week followed by a warming trend into the weekend accompanied by a drier stretch of weather through Saturday.

- 40-70% precipitation chances return on Sunday, with colder temperatures into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A line of thunderstorms is currently moving west to east across Missouri as of 2 AM. For the most part, these storms have been sub-severe, though some areas along the line have been noted to surge out, drop observed 50-60 mph gusts, then weaken again. These storms are occuring ahead of a mid-level low over TX that is currently merging with a low-amplitude but energetic polar longwave noted over ND/SD/NE. These storms are currently driving themselves as the synoptic cold front is observed to stretch from south-central KS, through west-central MO, and into northern IL.

Line of storms to exit the area. Isolated severe threat:

Expect the strengthening/weakening trend to continue for the rest of the night before the storms clear the eastern CWA by 6-8 AM. Our 04Z sounding depicted substantial MLCIN (>100 J/kg) which seems to be stunting intensity across much of the line. Our VAD shows very strong 40+ kts of 0-1/0-3 km shear, which has led to some mesovort type structures along the line, but ultimately the MLCIN seems to keep from anything more severe from spinning up. That said, if any storm is able to overcome the inhibition, the strongly sheared environment would be supportive of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and a spin-up tornado or two. This threat will end as the line exits the area at 6-8 AM.

Additional 60-90% chances for showers and storms this morning:

At around the same time (6-8 AM), the main cold front will be dropping southeast through the area. Weak residual instability ahead of the front will bring a 60-90% chance for showers along and behind the front, with some becoming thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected with this activity given very weak instability, but residual 0-6 km effective bulk shear at 30-40 kts along with strong cold air advection behind the front may bring some sub-severe wind gusts up to 40-50 mph immediately with the cold front.

Near normal temperatures today and Thursday behind cold front:

Low-level clouds and cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures cool today. High temperatures for most areas will occur this morning before the front moves through with temperatures ranging from 50 to 65 F. Afternoon temperatures look to stay in the mid-40s to lower 50s across the area. Lows tonight then look to bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

The polar wave trough axis will be exiting the area Thursday, bringing the northeastern edge of a surface high through our region in the morning. This will keep highs cooler than what we have been experiencing, but still near normal. Highs Thursday look to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

The surface high will then slide southeast of our area during the afternoon, renewing southwesterly flow. The surface cold front will be well into the Gulf at this point, so warm air advection will commence, but moisture will not return. This will bring afternoon relative humidity values down to the 25-30% range. This will bring elevated fire weather conditions along and north of I-44 where sustained winds are forecast to reach 10-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. However, with our recent rounds of rainfall and high soil saturation, not expecting fuels to be very receptive to the conditions, limiting much of the concerns.

Lows are then forecast to be in the upper 30s to middle 40s Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Warming trend comes back Friday into Saturday:

Global models bring through a dry cold front Friday afternoon, but before this occurs, continued southwesterly flow should bring temperatures up into the lower 60s to lower 70s with lows overnight in the upper 30s to middle 40s. As the polar jet is expected to stay well north following this dry cold front, winds will quickly return to southerly, advecting in even warmer air Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the lower to middle 50s.

40-70% precipitation chances Sunday. Thunderstorms possible:

LREF clusters are in pretty good agreement with a deep, energetic meridional trough to dive into the central Plains Sunday, bringing a strong cold front to surge southward with it. Ahead of this wave, only marginal moisture return is expected with dewpoints reaching the lower 50s. The combination of warm and marginally moist air with cooler temperatures aloft (aided by 8-9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates) will produce weak MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg as noted by GFS/ECMWF deterministic output. This would be enough instability for showers and thunderstorms along the crashing cold front, especially toward central Missouri where forcing is better towards the surface low (40-70% chance).

A look at LREF cluster joint probabilities for >500 J/kg MUCAPE; >35 kts 0-6 km bulk shear; and >0.01" QPF reveals a 20-30% chance of achieving those ingredients. Given the added strong dynamics of the front, would not be surprised to see a quick thin line of low-topped convection that brings at least sub- severe wind gusts and potentially marginally severe wind gusts. Will continue to analyze trends for this potential.

Looking windy Sunday following the strong cold front:

The strong dynamics of the trough and attendant surface cold front will bring strong cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient. Isallobaric flow will also contribute to enhanced winds. The current forecast calls for sustained winds between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph, but the NBM presents a 20-30% chance for winds gusts >40 mph. This may also present a fire weather concern if the winds overlap with drier air, but uncertainty in exact frontal timing precludes any considerable mention with this forecast.

Cooler temperatures to start next week following cold front:

With such strong cold air advection, temperatures will become quite chilly Sunday night through Monday night. Lows Sunday and Monday night will tank into the lower to middle 20s with highs Monday only reaching the lower to middle 40s.

A warming trend will be quick to follow, though, due to the very compact and meridional structure of the upper-level trough. Heights will quickly rise, southerly flow will return, and temperatures will quickly rebound into the 50s Tuesday and the 60s to lower 70s Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A line of thunderstorms is currently ongoing across west-central Missouri into southeast Kansas. This line is attempting to fill in southward through Oklahoma and Arkansas. This line of storms will progress eastward during the first half of the TAF period, impacting JLN between 06-08Z, and SGF/BBG around 07-09Z. Wind gusts up to 40-50 kts are possible with these storms, as well as a spin up tornado, though the chance of that occurring within 25 miles of the TAF site is low (<5%).

Afterwards, there will be a brief lull in rain before the main cold fropa occurs, bringing another chance for some low-topped showers and thunderstorms between 13-18Z. No severe hazards are expected with these storms, but a wind shift to northwesterly with brief gusts up to 30-40 kts will likely occur. Following the fropa, winds should stay elevated in the 15-20 kt range with gusts up to 25-30 kts.

Otherwise, cigs are expected to drop to MVFR and IFR with the storms passage, and then the fropa. Model guidance suggests MVFR cigs lasting through at least 00Z at all TAF sites (50-60% chance).

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KSGF: 80/1955 KJLN: 82/1972 KVIH: 85/1955 KUNO: 82/1995

March 14: KSGF: 82/1971 KJLN: 80/2002

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.