textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms this evening into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging straight- line winds will be the primary hazards.

- Localized flash flooding is a concern broadly across central Missouri tonight, though confidence in the location/axis of the heaviest rainfall remains low.

- Warm and humid conditions on Monday with heat index values in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

- Mostly dry conditions through the work week, with better rain chances returning next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

An upper-level shortwave embedded in an otherwise stangnat blocking pattern is pivoting northeast through the northern Rockies this afternoon, with a broad ridge trying to build over the south- central CONUS. At the surface, a stalled front is draped from central Kansas to the southeast through southwest Missouri and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

On radar, a few loosely organized thunderstorms/storm clusters are drifting through central and eastern Missouri riding a residual outflow boundary from last night's convection. Observations and hi-res guidance say the environment is still moist and plenty unstable with dewpoints in the low 70s and MUCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg early this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is modest at 20-30 kt.

Isolated Severe Storms this Afternoon and Tonight:

Afternoon: Diurnal heating and steep low and mid-level lapse rates will result in further destabilization this afternoon and evening. While shear is marginal, the aforementioned stalled front and residual outflow boundaries combined with this strong instability may allow for isolated, weakly forced severe thunderstorms. Hail to quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary hazards with these storms. Probability of occurrence is low here.

Evening/Overnight: Warm air advection through a corridor of increasing shear in southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri look to produce more widespread and organized convection this evening. Furthermore, decreasing surface CIN and strong 35-45 K theta-e differences should allow for better- established cold pools that may result in the formation of an MCS. Storm motion would initially be easterly or even northeasterly across eastern Kansas and western Missouri but will eventually shift to the southeast as storms cross into central Missouri, following the eastern periphery of the ridge and forward-propagating corfidi vectors in a highly unstable, uncapped atmosphere.

Hazards: If supercells do form across eastern Kansas and western Missouri (I-49 and west) this evening, there will be a short window where hail up to golf balls and winds up to 70 mph will be the primary hazards. Low- level shear will initially be weak, but RAP output suggests 0-1 km SRH modestly increases to around 100-125 m2s2 throughout the evening, which is marginally sufficient for a low-end tornado risk, particularly in the vicinity of the stalled surface front. As the storms move into central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks overnight, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and quarter sized hail will be the primary hazards.

Localized Flash Flood Threat Tonight:

Storms will be efficient rainmakers tonight with PWATs of 1.6" to 1.9", likely allowing for rain rates of 1-2"/hr. While storm motions will be more progessive tonight than they were last night, a veering low-level jet in the vicinity of the front may produce training storms over the same area.

How Much Rain: Guidance varies quite significantly in the placement of the strongest storms and axis of heaviest rainfall (therefore precluding Flood Watch issuance); HREF LPMM depicts an axis of 2 to 4 inch totals near the Highway 54 corridor, while the REFS shows similar precip totals farther north along the I-70 corridor. There is a broad Slight (level 2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook across central Missouri tonight. In reality, the areal extent of the flood risk will not be quite as widespread as the outlook may suggest, but there is increasing confidence that there will be a localized flash flood risk across central Missouri tonight.

Warm and Muggy Monday:

The shortwave will lift northeast tonight, allowing the aforementioned ridge to build across the central CONUS, bringing warm and humid air with it. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat index values in the 90s to near 100 degrees across extreme southwest MO and southeast KS. Greater cloud cover--and possibly even lingering showers through the morning--across the eastern Ozarks and south- central Missouri may result in slightly cooler conditions than the rest of the forecast area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Ensembles show general agreement in the omega block pattern persisting through mid-week, meaning dry and seasonably warm conditions for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Indeed, PoPs remain less than 20% through Thursday with NBM percentile data suggest daily highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Cluster analysis depicts increasing variability in the synoptic pattern starting on Friday, though most show the pattern finally breaking down with the return of rain chances across the area Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Scattered low to mid-level clouds are moving through southern Missouri at the start of the TAF period, with scattered showers and storms across central Missouri. Cloud cover over may occasionally fill in enough throughout the afternoon for ceilings to bounce between MVFR and VFR, but no precipitation is expected through the evening.

Overnight, a thunderstorm complex will track though central and eastern Missouri. This activity will likely remain north of the terminals. The highest chance for any impacts will be at SGF, where a PROB30 group was included after 06Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.