textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions mainly west of U.S.65 continues this afternoon.

- Increasingly active pattern late this week through the middle of next week. Increasing potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding from late this week into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows an upper level closed low shifting southeast out of Manitoba into northeast North Dakota and another low out in the Pacific west of CA/OR and the 130W longitude. At the surface, a cold front was pushing southeast into southeast Nebraska ahead of the upper level low. Dry air continues over our area with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dew points in the upper 30s to mid 40s giving us early afternoon RH values in the mid 30s to around 40%. Winds were gusty and over 30 mph in some locations giving us some elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions, especially west of U.S. 65.

Rest of the afternoon: The elevated to localized significant fire weather conditions will persist through the afternoon with humidity levels dropping a bit further and wind gusts continuing through the afternoon.

Tonight: The surface cold front will continue to push southeast into northwest Missouri tonight. Wind gusts will diminish after sunset this evening and moisture will continue to increase over the area. Showers and thunderstorms should remain north and west of the area. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night: The upper level low will lift to the east northeast back into Canada, with the front eventually stalling out from west to east, north of the forecast area. We may get some showers/thunderstorms in our far northwestern CWA by Thursday night(20-40%) but most of the area will remain dry. Highs Thursday in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows Thursday night from the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A secondary northern stream shortwave on the heels of the first one that lifted into Canada will push east southeast along the U.S. Canadian border which may nudge the front a bit further south on Friday with an increase in MU CAPES south of the front over the southwestern portions of the CWA. Some stronger storms may be possible Friday afternoon over the southwestern CWA with hail and wind gusts potentially approaching severe limits.

A deeper upper trough will begin to push east into the west coast by Friday night with a broad area of southwest flow aloft setting up ahead of the low and into the plains. With high pressure in the low levels to the east of us and low pressure developing in the high plains, the front will lift back to the north as a warm front with Gulf moisture increasing over the eastern plains into our western CWA Friday night into the weekend. Some upper level jet energy will work into the area late Saturday into Sunday with the chances for shower and thunderstorms increasing. The best instability should remain west of the area, so we are not expecting any severe storms over the weekend.

While there remains differing solutions as to how the western trough evolves eastward with speed an placement, moisture and instability continue to increase ahead of the trough and upper energy and there may be several rounds of severe weather from Monday through Wednesday of next week. In addition to the severe weather chances, heavy rain will likely accompany the storms as the Gulf moisture continues to advect into the area ahead of this system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the area this evening through the day on Thursday. Gusty southerly winds will occur early this evening but will decrease early in the TAF period. Gusty southerly winds will develop again by mid morning Thursday and will continue into the early evening hours. Some high level clouds will move through the area at times through the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.