textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory in effect for the eastern Missouri Ozarks from 1 AM tonight until 9 AM Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend to return temperatures to well above normal - The CPC gives a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures to persist through the end of October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The short term will be dominated by a cooler Canadian air mass with high pressure centered over the forecast area today. The main forecast challenge is the extent of frost tonight into early Sunday morning, and to a degree additional frost potential Sunday night.

The center of the surface high will shift eastward into the Ohio Valley tonight at the same time an upper ridge builds across the southern Plains. The continuation of clear skies will be one frost factor though attention to surface winds will be the dominant frost factor. Expectations are that the surface high will shift eastward enough for winds generally north of the Plateau and west of Highway 5 to maintain enough mixing after midnight. Consequently will lean toward the lower end of the model spectrum in the sheltered areas south and east of this region and in particular the eastern Ozarks resulting in these areas standing the best chance for frost.

Sunday will then begin a warming trend as the upper ridge builds east while cyclogenesis occurs over the Rockies leading to a strengthening low level southerly flow that will continue into coming work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

To what should be no surprise given trends this summer, our weekend spell of cooler fall weather will be short lived as the region will once again see temperatures shoot up over the coming week as upper heights climb above 585 with the return of the southern upper ridge. The NBM models depict a 25-75 percentile spread of only a few degrees apart leading to high confidence in this warming trend.

Of equal note is that the dry Canadian continental air mass has advected all the way into the Gulf so even with the return flow this week the pattern will keep the vertical pattern dry leading to a extremely low chance for any rainfall minimizing any recent improvements to the drought gained by last weeks rainfall.

As had been previously introduced, there remains at least medium confidence in above normal temperatures to end October as the CPC has our entire region in a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures for the period of October 24-30.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable with a gradual turn to the south on Sunday with speeds less than 10kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ058-070-071- 081>083-091-092-096>098-105-106.