textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Residual river flooding will continue following weekend rainfall.

- 30-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with 60 mph winds and golf ball size hail possible in the strongest storms.

- Gusty southerly winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday.

- Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night with all modes of severe weather threats. Conditional risk for significant severe threats.

- Thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Lingering impacts from this past weekend: VIIRS/ABI joint satellite analyses show pockets of residual flooding still lingering across southern Missouri, with a couple of rivers in the Osage, James, and Spring River basins still yet to crest or coming down from flood stages. Residual flooding, especially of low-lying areas and low water crossings downstream of headwaters, is expected to persist for the near future. River and lake levels and streamflows will also remain elevated for for the coming days. Continue to heed road closures and do not drive through floodwaters!

Current conditions and synoptic overview: High pressure is building over the area in the wake of the cold front that caused this past weekend's active weather. Aloft, ridging is building over the West Coast, with a strengthening upper-level low centered over the Hudson Bay pushing a longwave trough further south into the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

Today: Skies cleared early today, so bumped high temps this afternoon up a few degrees. Areas near the Kansas and Arkansas borders may push near 80 degrees, with high 70s across the rest of the area. Overall very pleasant, with light northerly winds and a developing fair weather cumulus field early this afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies for most of the overnight period will allow efficient radiational cooling with calm winds. Lows in the low to mid-50s in the eastern Ozarks and the upper 50s elsewhere will be near dew points, so patchy fog may develop, especially in locations that still have water puddled.

Tuesday: A shortwave will wade across the Great Lakes through the northwesterly upper-level jet and push a cold front south through Missouri Tuesday morning. The front will become more diffuse with southwest extent, with a stronger influence in central Missouri than in southwest Missouri or southeast Kansas. A plume of higher lapse rates and drier air pushes behind the front Tuesday morning, drying up the light morning convection and breaking apart the showers and storms as they move into the area from the northwest.

However, the afternoon hours see a stronger theta-e/moisture gradient build along the front with some convergence in northern Oklahoma bringing Gulf moisture and dew points near 70 to the Four Corners region. A corridor of 2000-3000 J/kg+ uncapped SBCAPE builds from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri near the Arkansas/Missouri state line by the early evening, and 45-50kts of bulk shear will be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms to develop. This area overlaps with weak omega and the more diffuse portion of the cold front, suggesting no strong forcing mechanism will present, but 0-3km lapse rates >7C/km suggest that daytime heating may be enough to initiate deep convection, especially without a strong cap in place to overcome. Convective temperatures in the 80-82 degree range near the Missouri/Arkansas line will be exceeded with the current forecast of low 80s in central Missouri under more cloud cover and 82-84 near the state lines with Arkansas/Kansas/Oklahoma.

Hazards: Damaging winds and hail would be the main severe hazards for Tuesday's Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk. Generally unidirectional to weakly veered shear profiles should allow clusters to develop along strong cold pools, making damaging winds to 60 mph the primary risk, but far southwest Missouri may see sufficient enough mid-level lapse rates and straight enough hodographs for hail to the size of golf balls, especially in any left-movers that may be able to split.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Another shortwave ejects through the upper-level jet streak across the Northern Plains going into Wednesday, with a strengthening surface low and deepening pressure gradient developing in South Dakota by Wednesday morning. A 50kt+ 850mb jet streak forms through central Missouri where the shortwave and high pressure to the southeast create convergent flow, creating unusually strong shear profiles given the largely zonal jet aloft.

Winds - Wednesday: The tightening pressure gradient will produce wind gusts 35-45 mph at times on Wednesday afternoon, with the strongest winds north of I-44. Still only a ~30% maximum chance for gusts greater than 45 mph, so while quite gusty, Wind Advisory still appears unlikely.

Severe - Wednesday: Southwesterly low-level flow will lift the cold front back north as a warm front into central Missouri on Wednesday, and the warm front and open warm sector will be the focal point for potential severe storm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. 4000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and 60+ kts of bulk shear will develop along the warm front and within the open warm sector, which will be more than enough for severe storms to form. 30-40kts of 0-3km bulk shear will favor a large humped hodograph, making this potentially an all-hazards event.

Areas north of Highway 54 will have the best chance of seeing severe weather, closer to the highest instability and under the upper-level jet (which has strongest upper jet streak speeds in northern Missouri and central Illinois). It seems like the area that is most favorable for initiation may lie north of our forecast area, increasing the uncertainty in storm mode and hazards due to morning convection potentially interfering with afternoon discrete convection firing up. Supercells producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible initially, with a more widespread damaging wind threat developing later into the evening with a QLCS developing as cold pools organize seeming likely. While the risk will be conditional, the environment in our central Missouri counties could be quite volatile, so stay tuned for additional details as they become available.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible into Thursday with a cold frontal passage in association with Wednesday's maturing cyclone. While Friday looks dry, rain chances increase Saturday as the current pattern breaks down. Rain chances >30% continue through the end of the forecast period. Machine learning models indicate a broad area of severe weather potential in association with the continuing PoPs through the weekend, but confidence is details is minimal at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a 30 percent chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon and evening however confidence is too low to go higher than prob30s right now. Winds will start out light out of the northwest however a switch to the south is likely tonight then another switch to the west northwest on Tuesday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.