textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures possible today with breezy winds near 35-40 mph this afternoon.

- Elevated to significant fire weather concerns today as a cold front moves through later this afternoon.

- Record high temperatures possible Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Skies are clear this morning with low temperatures sitting in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A mild night is in store for us ahead of an incoming cold front. High temperatures today will likely occur just after noon and top out in the upper 80s today. Southwesterly winds will be breezy ahead of the front gusting up to 30 mph by late morning. Cold front will push through in the late afternoon hours switching our winds out of the north and bringing wind gusts near 35-40 mph across the area. No precipitation is expected with this front but mid to high level clouds will accompany it. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Potential hazards today: Confidence is low for the need of a Wind Advisory or a Red Flag Warning today. Though, we are close to hitting criteria for both of those products. For the areas in a Wind Advisory, they would need to have gusts that reach 45 mph or greater. Looking at model guidance, areas near I-49 and west have the best chance for even getting close to that criteria. Took a look at a few model soundings in that area to see our potential for mixing today. A couple of the models have 40 knot gusts (46 mph) aloft that have a decent chance to mix all the way to the surface. The rest of the model soundings do not have that scenario unfolding. A Wind Advisory isn't completely out of the question for today, but we won't be issuing one at this time as there isn't enough guidance to support 45 mph gusts even looking at the 90th percentile guidance. If observations in eastern KS start showing gusts reaching 45 mph, a Wind Advisory may be needed. The advisory will likely be short-fused and only be 6 hours from around 6pm to 12am where we'd see our highest gusts.

The Red Flag Warning decision to not issue one for today follows a similar logic to the Wind Advisory. There will be a very brief window for us to potentially reach Red Flag Advisory over the area right as the front comes through. The timing of the highest gusts doesn't match the timing of the lowest RH's. Min RH's will be the lowest (30-40%) in the early afternoon but winds will be too light and only gust to 25-30 mph during that time. As the front moves through and brings stronger winds by the late afternoon, that's where we'll see a brief 1-2 hr window where we may hit Red Flag Warning criteria where northerly wind gusts will be near 30-35 mph. By the time the winds reach their full strength at 35-40 mph, the dewpoints will be recovering and hourly RH values will be closer to 40% and will continue to steadily increase. The window for Significant fire danger will be small, but still present this afternoon for areas west of I-49. If observed winds/dewpoints are hitting criteria, we'd likely issue for those counties along and west of I-49. Again, confidence is low on that product for now, but we will be messaging Elevated to Significant fire danger today so be mindful to avoid activities that cause open flames or sparks.

Highs on Monday will be closer to normal with temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will be out of the east near 20 mph. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and partly cloud skies and winds out of the southeast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

High pressure builds over the southern Plains and we will see a series of disturbances that pass just over the ridge across our area. Though, we still seem too dry to receive any rainfall from these shortwaves. We'll be on record watch once again by mid-week as highs climb into the lower 90s by Thursday. Thursday night into Friday we will see another cold front come through. This frontal passage will be our next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Right now, model guidance is a bit uncertain on timing and strength of the front. High temperature spreads for Friday vary from 79 to 55 degrees. Greatest chance for rain looks to occur overnight with a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday night. Rain is forecast to linger into Friday morning with a 30-40% chance of rain. It's too early to determine if any of these storms will be severe, but expect general thunder for now and rainfall amounts around 0.5" or less across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR through the period with southerly winds near 10 knots persisting for the next couple of hours before winds turn southwesterly and gust near 25 knots. A cold front will move through late this afternoon and winds will shift northerly and gust near 30 knots. Winds will remain elevated through the evening hours. Mid to high level clouds will accompany the front.

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KSGF: 88/1907 KJLN: 90/1995 KVIH: 78/1904 KUNO: 85/1997

March 25: KSGF: 83/1910 KJLN: 88/1910 KVIH: 80/1959 KUNO: 79/2012

March 26: KSGF: 82/2020 KJLN: 86/1910 KVIH: 83/9999 KUNO: 86/2020

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.