textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 AM this morning for extreme southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas. Flash flooding remains the main threat, but a few instances of 60 mph wind gusts and spin-up tornadoes are possible.

- Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 PM today for the entire area. Greatest at risk area for potentially significant and life-threatening flooding is in extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas where a Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall is in place.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat- related impacts.

- Confidence increasing for additional rounds of rain during the end of this week (50-70% chance).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Numerous alerts are sprawled across our CWA tonight, mostly encapsulated by a Flood Watch and several Flash Flood Warnings as rainfall totals reached 1-2 inches across much of the area, with a few pockets up to 6 inches.

After a very brief lull in shower and thunderstorm activity this evening, numerous slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have developed again within southwest Missouri, southeast Kansas, and northeast Oklahoma. These storms are developing on the convergent nose of the nocturnal low-level jet that is pumping strong warm and moist air advection into the region. Of additional note, the environment for these storms is a bit different than earlier storms. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows the deep moist air mass east of our region, with a belt of dry air cycling into the center of the shortwave. Additionally, where these storms are developing, shear profiles are northwesterly versus the southwesterly profiles from earlier today.

Potentially significant flash flooding possible this morning:

The way these storms are setting up is primed for training. Indeed, we are already seeing vertical lines of thunderstorms moving over the same areas in southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. HREF CAM members are in quite good agreement that these storms will continue to increase in coverage as the LLJ only strengthens through the night. With 1.8-1.9 PWATs currently in place (well above normal for this time of year), very heavy downpours are likely. As a result, HREF LPMMs depict pockets of up to 5-8 inches in areas around southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. HRRR-based FIM and Water Model output certainly paints a somewhat concerning flash flood picture if these storms put the highest rainfall amounts over populated areas. The WPC's Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0359 has more in depth information on the setup/risk, but their summary falls in line with our messaging of "a locally significant and life-threatening flash flood event" being expected. If in Cherokee, Crawford, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton, McDonald, and Barry Counties, please be aware of potentially localized significant and life-threatenng flash flooding come morning.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 AM this morning:

While flash flooding is the main threat through this morning, the mid-level dry air and northwesterly modest shear profiles across the area could also promote cold pools developing within the complex. If this occurs, damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and brief spin-up tornadoes would all be possible. To account for this scenario, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect until 8 AM this morning, though flooding still remains the main threat.

Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms west of Hwy 65 tonight:

The main brunt of the evolving thunderstorm complex should be exiting our CWA by mid-morning, leaving remnant light to moderate rain across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. As the day goes on and instability reinvigorates, a NW-SE oriented band of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the outflow/convergent wake of the thunderstorm complex. These would not be expected to be widespread, creating only a 15-40% chance of storms this afternoon.

After the brief lull in activity during the day, a Marginal to a sliver of a Slight Risk or severe thunderstorms exists west of Highway 65 for later this evening into the overnight hours. Most 00Z HREF members depict an MCS moving in from the west, though there is still considerable uncertainty in location, timing, and progged intensity. Instability will be plentiful for this system (2000-2500+ J/kg MUCAPE), but shear will generally be weaker with eastward extent. Therefore, the complex is expected to be weakening as it enters our area. Nevertheless, the remnant complex may still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to quarter size, and brief spin-up tornadoes, especially as it reaches the MO/KS border. This complex will then mark the end of rain chances for a couple days.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Persistent heat enters the region for much of next week:

Mid- and upper-level geopotential heights will rise in the wake of the system finally exiting the region. The resulting mid- level ridge that builds into the area has >99.5th percentile heights for this time of year according to NAEFS ESATs. This will bring very warm temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday through Thursday. Furthermore, ensembles are coming into agreement on the upper-end of the moisture spread with ESATs progging the low-level moisture to be the greatest modeled in the 30-year climatology for early June. NBM dewpoints are modeled near 80 F in some spots, which will certainly make the air feel like tomato soup. These above normal temperatures and unprecedented early June humidity values will lead to Heat Index values ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s (reaching near 110 F in some spots), especially Tuesday.

While this is not uncommon heat for the Ozarks to experience, it is rather atypical for early June as contextualized by our "normal" max heat index of around 97 F for early June as outlined by the CPC. With this being the first heat of the season, NBM spreads forecasting it to be over multiple days, and with warm nighttime temperatures in the 70s providing little relief, heat impacts may be slightly heightened from normal 100-110 F heat index impacts. This is reflected with a widespread Moderate to Major Risk for heat-related impacts, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. This means the heat will likely affect those without cooling or hydration. Extra care for heat-related impacts should be exercised come next week.

Confidence increasing for additional rounds of rain end of week:

The exact longevity of the heat wave is still a bit in question as ensemble clusters diverge a bit on shortwave and resulting frontal boundary progressions Thursday and onward. Latest LREF trends point to a cold front moving through Thursday and Thursday night, bringing our next chance of rain (50-70%). Very high moisture values ahead of the front would promote very high CAPE values, which means a severe risk is not out of the question for any system that moves through. ML NSSL/CSU guidance do hint at a severe risk with the passage, which we will have to monitor going forward.

Any system would "cool" things off to near normal for the rest of the week. Clusters are still a bit divergent, though, and there are hints at multiple progressions and regressions of the frontal boundary into the weekend as a synoptic trough takes its sweet old time to move through the Northern Plains. If this occurs, the heat risk would be tempered a bit, but introduce multiple chances of rain and storms through the weekend. Attention would be turned to additional flooding and severe threats that may evolve. Stay up to date with the forecast!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A complex of thunderstorms is moving through the TAF sites for the first part of the period. Copious amounts of lightning have been observed with these storms. Reductions in visibility are possible through 15-18Z. Afterwards, a lull in activity is expected with potentially several layers of cloud debris. Very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible at SGF between 18-21Z, but this is a 20-30% chance.

While winds will be a bit variable for the first part of the period due to the thunderstorm complex, they should settle back to south-southwesterly at 10-15 kts, sometimes gusting up to 20 kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.