textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area during the overnight hours into this morning. Showers and maybe a few storms will linger into the evening hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with this activity. - Storms will redevelop during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly south and east of the area but could clip far south central Missouri. If storms can redevelop in the area a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into Thursday, with a warming trend to average temperatures by the weekend. Weekend precipitation possible with a frontal passage.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A cold front is currently located from central Kansas into northeastern Missouri. Showers and storms have developed along and ahead of the front currently remaining just north and west of the area. The front will move south through the area tonight through today pushing south of the area by this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area through the overnight hours into this morning. Current uncapped MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will decrease while spreading across areas mainly north of I-44 tonight as an upper level trough moves east across the plains. Deep layer shear is not overly strong currently but will increase as the trough moves east. The surface based cap will remain strong overnight so storms will be elevated in nature. Given the MUCAPE and shear would support a few strong to severe storms with hail to the size of half dollars the main risk over the next hours with the strong severe risk decreasing through the overnight hours. The wind risk will be more limited due to the elevated nature of the storms, but if any line segments can develop some isolated damaging wind gusts could be possible with any bowing segments.

The front will continue to move south through the area during day today. There could be a break in rain that ends early this morning then additional showers and a few storms will then occur again later this morning into this afternoon along and behind the front as the front moves to the south today. Instability will be weak this morning but will start to increase this afternoon into this evening south of the front. Once instability starts to increase late this afternoon and this evening storms will redevelop along the front as the upper level trough moves into the area. Most of this activity will be south of the area, but the front may still be north of far south central Missouri when the storms redevelopment late this afternoon. If this occurs there would be a brief window for strong storms with hail up to the size of ping pong balls to occur, but storms would quickly push out of the area. It is also possible the redevelopment along the front occurs after the front already is south of the area which would result in the strong to severe risk being south of the area.

Showers or drizzle will likely linger into the evening hours behind the front as the low level moisture/clouds and lift from the upper level trough moves across the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Cooler conditions will occur across the area on Wednesday as highs only warm into the 50s. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning will drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s with some middle 30s possible in the more protected locations.

Highs will warm into the 60s on Thursday with highs returning to the 70s and 80s by the weekend. Rain chances will then return this weekend as an upper level trough and front move through the region. There are still some difference on the timing of the system between the ensemble model members, some bring it in as early as late Saturday with others as late as late Sunday. The air mass behind this front will not be much cooler as highs in the 70s to low 80s will occur into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Showers and a few storms will continue to move across southern Missouri early this morning and will push south of the KJLN and KSGF by the start of the TAF period, but will linger across the KBBG site into the start of the TAF period. Additional showers and a few storms will move into the area mid to late morning as a cold front moves into the area. Light rain or drizzle will likely occur behind the front this afternoon into early this evening at times. Additional thunderstorms will be possible across far southern Missouri late this afternoon into early this evening as the cold front moves through the rest of the area and could impact the KBBG site. Ceilings will lower to IFR behind the front. Northeasterly winds will also occur behind the front today and could be gusty at times.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.