textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures expected through the rest of the week. Temperatures Friday and Saturday could be at least 20 degrees above average (Highs in the 70s).

- There is a 15-60% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning with rainfall amounts of 0.10" or less. Some locations may remain dry. Additional precip chances (30-60%) return Sunday into early next week however confidence is low for all forecast elements in this time period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 159 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Above normal temperatures through Saturday: - Impacts: None. - Messaging: General messaging of above normal temperatures. - Details: Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s through Thursday, then 70s Friday and Saturday. Normal highs are in the low to mid 50s. Lows generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s. - Meteorological analysis: Subtle changes in the large scale pattern of an upper ridge over the western CONUS and NW flow over the central CONUS will allow for a more WNW flow along and a shift of the western warm air into the central CONUS. Ensemble spreads are small (generally 4-5 degrees), leading to high confidence in forecast temperatures.

15-60% chance of light rain Wednesday night and Thursday: - Impacts: None. - Messaging: General probability for rain. Emphasizing some locations may remain dry and highest chances across central MO. - Details: Rain chances will vary from around 15% over the southwestern CWA to around 60% over central MO. Forecast amounts are less than 0.10" with only a 20-30% LREF probability for > 0.05" over central MO. - Meteorological analysis: Shortwave energy and a weak cold front will result in forcing, but dry moisture will be quite limited, keeping PoPs and QPF lower than if we had a moisture rich environment with the same synoptic features.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 159 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Overall low confidence in the pattern and all forecast elements early next week: - Impacts: Moving into an active pattern but no impacts to hone in on at this point. - Messaging: General messaging of a more active pattern, but not able to get into any detailed timing or other specifics. - Details: Generally cooler with increased chances for rain, but very wide ranges of model output limits anything more detailed. - Meteorological analysis: Ensembles trend toward a cutoff upper low over the desert SW, which models notoriously struggle with. This does result in a more active pattern as energy sheds from the low and moves through the region and the jet overhead provides opportunities for forcing and a nearby frontal zone. However, model spreads in most parameters are large. For example, NBM 10th-90th percentile MaxT spreads of 30-40 degrees are not uncommon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

An overcast layer of high clouds and light but generally easterly winds expected to persist through the remainder of daylight hours. Tonight, an overnight cold frontal passage is expected to bring light rain showers to central Missouri, potentially clipping site SGF (~30% chance) but the most likely scenario keeps southern Missouri dry.

Prevailing conditions will change as the cold front arrives. Just ahead of the front, winds will pick up and gust up to 15 kts, turning northerly to northeasterly as the front passes. Behind the front, a shallow layer of low- level moisture may decrease ceilings into the MVFR range for a few hours on Thursday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.