textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably cool conditions take hold tonight and linger through the weekend. A gradual warming trend then brings temperatures back to near-normal next week.

- Precip chances continue to trend downward on Sunday (maximum 10-20% in extreme southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri), with increasing confidence that the region will remain completely dry.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

Upper-level troughing is in place across the West Coast and the eastern CONUS, with a ridge centered over the Rockies sandwiched between these two features. At the surface, broad high pressure is building across the Midwest. The Ozarks are cooling to near or below freezing under clear skies early this morning, with light northwest winds.

Cool & Dry Today and Tomorrow:

A cold and very dry air mass has moved into the region, with today and tonight expected to be the coldest days of the period. Highs today will only reach the mid-40s in central Missouri where skies will be cloudier, and upper 40s to low 50s further west and south under clear skies. Clouds will dissipate with clear skies areawide tonight, with temperatures dropping to low to mid-20s. Much less breezy this afternoon than past days, with gusts up to 20 mph east of Highway 65.

Temperatures warm slightly tomorrow as the ridge pushes eastward and weak southerly flow returns to the region. Highs warm slightly to the upper 40s to low 50s, kickstarting a slow and gradual warming that continues through the week and possibly beyond. Temperatures to drop near or below freezing again Saturday night, with lows in the lower 30s in areas west of Highway 65 and into the 20s across the eastern Ozarks.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Synoptic Evolution:

Global deterministic and ensemble models continue to indicate a shortwave will push across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday, bringing rain to portions of the south-central Plains. Height rises quickly follow the weakening wave, with good agreement amongst models on the timing and amplitude of ridging that builds in its wake. Ridging remains in place through at least midweek next week, keeping the region dry and continuing to warm.

Precip Chances:

Precip chances for Sunday and Sunday night continue to trend downward, with the NBM noticeably lower than the LREF (potentially due to bias corrections?). PoPs are now maximized at 15-20% on Sunday, and >10% chances are confined to the southwest portions of the Cherokee KS and McDonald MO counties. This trend may be better attributed to the models trending towards a drier air mass being in place across our area that creeps further west with each run, rather than the track of the shortwave itself. As such, confidence is increasing that our area will remain without precip Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Northerly winds gradually turn northeasterly through the period, with sustained 5-8kt winds and an occasional gust up to 15kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.