textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures and continued dry conditions through Tuesday.

- A more unsettled pattern sets up Tuesday night into next weekend as temperatures trend cooler with periodic rain chances.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation in the Feb 14th to 20th period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 147 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A Canadian high air mass centered over the Great Lakes led to it being not quite as warm today but with plenty of sunshine afternoon readings still climbed into the 50s by early afternoon.

The upper air pattern featuring a western over the Rockies and a eastern North America trough has left the SGF forecast area in northwest flow which will undergo changes Sunday as a weakening wave brings some cloudiness but no precipitation while meandering southwesterly low level flow advects in well warmer than normal temperatures Sunday into Tuesday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 147 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Looking ahead toward midweek upper level heights will weaken as an upper level closed low translating under the base of the western ridge works its way into the southern Plains while a series of waves weaken the ridge itself. The result will be a transition to strengthening westerly flow.

Precipitation chances initial begin Tuesday night into Wednesday. The vertical thermal sounding will begin to cool though any precipitation witnessed will be as rain with some limited instability potentially resulting in a few rumbles of thunder.

A chaotic upper pattern will then lead to periodic mainly light precipitation chances into next weekend. The NBM model members in general keep the precipitation as rain...though for awareness purposes the 25th-75th percentile surface temperatures Friday night range from 30-36 degrees (with coolest conditions more likely toward central MO) with the mean 6 hourly QPF topping a tenth of an inch.

Daytime temperatures then climb well above freezing Saturday followed by mean model overnight lows falling toward freezing. Again this is for awareness and continued monitoring as temperature trends turn back colder.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions through the period. South winds up to about 15 kts through the overnight with LLWS concerns roughly 6Z-18Z up to 2kft/45 kts. Around 12Z, roughly 10 kt winds begin to turn westerly and eventually light out of the north by the end of the period. Scattered to broken high clouds. No precipitation expected.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.