textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM for areas along/east of Highway 63. Expect patches of fluctuating visibilities below a quarter mile at times.

- Widespread light to moderate rain continues through today and into tonight.

- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

- Additional rain chances (60-70%) next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An upper level low continues to progress eastward through the Plains, with a surface low over southeast Colorado as of 2 AM. Satellite imagery clearly depicts the comma-head feature surrounding this low pressure system, with the eastern extent over much of Missouri.

Dense Fog Advisory This Morning: Observations showcase a large portion of northern, eastern, and southeastern Missouri experiencing visibilities below a mile, with many in the 0.25-0.50 mile range as a stratus deck remains over the region in places that aren't yet seeing precipitation. There remains a question of how far west this will extend as we progress through the morning hours. For areas along and east of Highway 63, REFS and HREF continue to highlight 60+% probabilities of visibilities below 0.25 miles, leading to higher confidence. Once you get west of Highway 63 towards Springfield, those higher probabilities start to drop off and become more patchy. Decided to trim the western tier of counties out of the Dense Fog Advisory since they should remain more patchy in nature before rain settles in. Counties along and east of a Howell to Miller line remain in the Advisory until 9AM.

Precipitation continuing through today: As the upper level trough has been making its way towards the Ozarks, a 30-35kt low level jet developed over Kansas, with PVA and increasing moisture (0.75-1.0 PWATS) beginning to push into the area. As a result, light rain began making its way into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight, with the "heaviest" rainfall showcasing an hourly rate of 0.15-0.20"/hr. As the morning progresses, CAMs showcase a weakening trend in the coverage, leading to some breaks in the rainfall. However, as the surface low continues to make its way towards the area late afternoon/evening, additional showers are expected to develop and push through the area before exiting the CWA from west to east tonight. Instability trends have gone down with the more current guidance, but still can't rule out a rumble of thunder or two this afternoon/evening (20-30%). Forecast rain totals remain on track with the previous forecast, with amounts generally between 0.20 and 0.50. HREF LPMM continues to highlight the potential for localized areas reaching 1.0-1.5 inches towards western/Central Missouri where training showers are more possible, however most locations won't see these higher amounts.

Cooler and More Seasonable Temperatures Today: With the increased cloud cover and precipitation limiting warming potential, decided to lower temperatures several degrees away from the deterministic NBM, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 50s. This is between 6-12 degrees cooler than yesterday's highs (with the exception of Vichy-Rolla that stayed in the upper 40s), and is much closer to seasonable temperatures.

Tuesday: Cloud cover will slowly begin to clear from west to east throughout much of Tuesday, with highs in the low 60s for much of the area. Models depict an upper level shortwave digging into the Midwest Tuesday afternoon/evening, with an associated cold front sweeping through the area. However, moisture and lift remain slim to none, so confidence in any precipitation occurring with this frontal passage is low - therefore, kept pops in the 10-20% range.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The cold front that's progged to sweep through the area on Tuesday will usher in much colder, below-normal temperatures, with highs remaining in the 40s to low 50s, and overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s Wednesday through Friday. With the northwesterly flow aloft and the dry airmass in place, not expecting any precipitation through at least Friday afternoon.

As we head into next weekend, ensembles are beginning to hint at an upper level trough pushing through the western CONUS, leading to additional precipitation chances returning to the area. With this being so far out still, there's a lot of discrepancies leading to low confidence in timing, intensity, amounts, and locations. NBM temperature interquartile spread continues to show an almost 20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles (25th: 37 degrees; 75th: 56 degrees; NBM deterministic: 51 degrees), further showcasing the uncertainty surrounding this system. We'll need to continue assessing model trends as we get closer to this time frame to really narrow down potential scenarios.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current VFR conditions will begin to deteriorate as the TAF period continues. Radar and satellite imagery shows a stratus deck and precipitation making its way towards KJLN, which should arrive shortly after the period begins, making its way towards the remainder of the TAF sites later this morning. There should be some periodic breaks in precipitation between 13Z-18Z, with some chances (<30%) of thunder at KBBG between 18Z-00Z, so continued the PROB30 group for now. By the end of the period, all TAF sites have a high likelihood of IFR ceilings.

Otherwise, light southeasterly winds will begin to increase to 8-12 kts generally after 12Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ057-058- 070-071-082-083-097-098-106.