textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather this afternoon into tonight, generally along and west of I-44. Low confidence in afternoon supercell development (all hazards possible), with higher confidence in window of severe potential associated with storms moving in from KS and OK (hail and wind risks). - Breezy southerly winds will occur again this afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph outside of thunderstorms. - Additional severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening, and again Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: A diffuse area of surface low pressure with two embedded centers of low pressure is located over the Northern Plains early this morning. Several hours ago, a dryline extended southward from this area of low pressure through central Kansas and Oklahoma before arcing back through northwest Texas. Now, the dryline has sagged back south and is attaching onto another developing lee cyclone in western Kansas with more of a cold front connecting the developing low to the established low pressure center over Iowa. This dryline separates a corridor of very moist air from a much drier air mass, which can be seen in the difference in PW values between the 00Z RAOBs at OUN (1.26") and DDC (0.3"). Upstream, an amplified trough with a closed low over the Mojave Desert is keeping flow progressive.

Severe Weather This Afternoon Into Tonight: Tricky forecast with a lot of nuance and subtle mesoscale influences that will drive the ultimate outcome. The surface low near Wisconsin (calling this low #1 for the rest of this discussion) will slide east into the Great Lakes area and lee cyclogenesis will continue in western Kansas (calling this low #2). All guidance seems to agree on the general evolution through the day: as low #2 deepens and begins to creep east, the boundary connecting lows #1 and #2 will begin to lift north as a warm front and moisture will pool along it. Low #2 will push the dryline east and create a dry slot that could extend as far east as the Missouri/Kansas line by this evening, when moisture will surge northward along the boundary and begin cutting off off the "dry slot" between the warm front and leading edge of moisture transport.

What we know mostly for sure: Storms are expected to initiate along the southern portion of the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma this evening and push into our area late tonight as the LLJ ramps back up. These storms are expected to initiate as supercells, and long-track supercells could be sustained if they remain discrete into the overnight hours. With widespread initiation along the dryline expected, it is more likely that the storms initially begin discrete and begin forming into clusters and grow upscale as they approach and enter our area.

Low confidence, higher-severe scenario: This is a low confidence scenario, but the potential severity deems it worth mentioning. As the theta-e gradient sags south through the dry slot this afternoon, it could serve as a lifting mechanism for potential afternoon thunderstorms. Some models indicate that there is a few hours roughly between 21-01Z where the dry slot sags south and east, which would orient the gradient from west to east in portions eastern Kansas. Due southerly surface flow would suggest that the warmer, more moist air would overrun the dry slot, which could provide another lifting mechanism for storms, further north of the expected primary dryline initiation in OK. Soundings suggest that the cap will be overcome-able by late afternoon in the north and west portions of our area, so this overrunning, in addition to any associated surface convergence that occurs as a result of these air masses interacting, would provide the final ingredient for supercell development. 40-50kts of westerly shear could favor either discrete supercells or a preceding round of multicell clusters with supercell characteristics, depending on location of initiation and the orientation of the mesoscale boundary at that location.

In all scenarios, any discrete supercells that develop/track into our area would be capable of damaging winds up to 70 mph, very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), and tornadoes. Once storms begin to interact with other nearby storms and cold pools become contaminated, the primary risk would be damaging wind gusts (especially with bowing segments) and embedded spin-up tornadoes if any line segments can become balanced.

Wednesday Severe Weather Potential: Wednesday will begin with the aforementioned round of thunderstorms moving in from the southwest. There may be a few rounds of multicell clusters that move through the area before the primary MCS arrives, pending development near Wichita, but the main AM system will be the TX/OK dryline development from Tuesday night. REFS and HREF members both depict several different scenarios as far as potential number of rounds or timing, but overall consensus is that the MCS will arrive around 6-8am on Wednesday morning. The duration, intensity, and speed of this MCS will be very influential on how the afternoon plays out.

As a shortwave upper trough ejects into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, an additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and night. The warm front between lows #1 and 2 on Tuesday will push back south as a cold front, likely stalling in Northern Missouri, but the dryline will still be in play in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Between 1500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available in these areas, which will have the most time to recover from morning convection. Despite the uncertainty, if isolated storms could develop and break through the cap, thermodynamic profiles favor large hail from resulting supercells.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thursday: Uncertainty in Wednesday afternoon/night storm evolutions leads to uncertainty in when rain will move out of the area. Most medium-range models indicate rain will linger through the early morning hours, especially into the Eastern Ozarks, so maintained 30-65% PoPs through 12Z (7am) Thursday. Coverage may become more scattered as the storms progress, which would see PoPs decreased in following forecasts. Storm redevelopment is not expected on Thursday afternoon, with the rest of the afternoon remaining dry.

Friday will see a more aggressive cold front approach from the northwest, serving as another source for severe weather this week. Synoptic conditions appear similar to Wednesday, except this time the cold front makes it into our area. Storms could initially be more supercellular in the afternoon warm sector, which appears to include our entire forecast area, before growing into a line of storms with the cold frontal passage Friday night. Temperatures will finally drop out of the 80s on Saturday, with mean temperatures in the 60s for this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Scattered low stratus in the 2-3kft layer to start the period, with only localized parts of Missouri recording enough coverage to create MVFR ceilings. Satellite trends suggest the transient nature of these clouds at the SGF and BBG sites should keep prevailing conditions largely VFR, though brief reductions to MVFR cigs will be possible through the critical TAF period.

Otherwise, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms (likely strong to severe, if they materialize) late this afternoon into this evening. Lots of remaining uncertainty into details (especially coverage and timing) but KJLN is most likely to see impacts and would likely see storms earlier than other sites.

CLIMATE

Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KSGF: 88/1936 KVIH: 87/2006 KUNO: 86/2024

April 15: KUNO: 84/9999

April 16: KVIH: 85/2006

April 17: KSGF: 87/1937 KVIH: 86/2004 KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 14: KSGF: 67/2006 KJLN: 70/2006 KUNO: 63/2012 KVIH: 63/2006

April 15: KSGF: 63/2006 KJLN: 66/2006 KUNO: 62/2006 KVIH: 63/1976

April 17: KSGF: 66/1976

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.