textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) throughout the weekend with a gradual warming trend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows a broad southwesterly flow aloft from the Pacific across Baja and into the mid Mississippi valley ahead of a trough from the central Rockies into Alberta. Still have a large stratus shield over the area. Surface front has pushed south into southern AR.

Shortwave energy over northern Mexico will begin to lift northeast into the southern plains tonight and into the mid Mississippi valley late Thursday. A few showers may occur late tonight into early Thursday morning ahead of this wave, however the majority of the expected associated rainfall will arrive with the shortwave late Thursday, but especially Thursday night into Friday morning. Most of the current cloud cover will hang around, although ceilings may improve a bit this afternoon before dropping again tonight. Lows will be in the mid 50s across the area with highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday.

The majority of the rain will affect areas west of the U.S. 65 corridor with QPF of 0.50" to 1.5" through Thursday night. This may lead to some localized flooding given the recent rainfall over the past few days and we are in a day 2 slight risk for excessive rainfall. Rain will continue into Friday where an additional quarter to half inch of rain will be possible.

There is some weak instability to support low end thunderstorm chances, however severe weather is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The southern stream flow will remain active through the holiday weekend with several upper waves of energy continuing the shower and thunderstorm chances each day and into Tuesday. There will be a potential for localized heavy rain and flooding, although some uncertainty remains in the timing of these waves and precipitation. While chances for rain have increased, we are not expecting all day washouts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

MVFR to even occasional LIFR flight conditions will continue as a stratus deck remains in place with areas of patchy drizzle. Some improvements to VFR could occur Thursday afternoon, however any improvements would be shortlived, as flight categories lower back into MVFR towards the end of the period. Some rain showers will be possible at all sites throughout the day on Thursday, with the higher confidence at KJLN. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable overnight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.