textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area today through the weekend as highs warm into the 50s and 60s each afternoon. Friday is expected to be the warmest day during this period with some 70 degree readings possible.

- A dry air mass will remain in place across the area today as southerly winds return, which could result in some elevated fire weather conditions developing across portions of the area. - Showers will develop and move into the area Friday evening and night with periods of showers occurring into Sunday morning. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with this activity.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures next week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

An area of surface high pressure is located just to the east of the area early this morning where it will remain today. An upper level ridge will build into the Plains tonight, leaving the area in an upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak upper level disturbance will move across the area in the northwest flow today. A dry air mass is in place across the area, which will limit the rain potential across the area today. Mid level clouds will increase across the area today with the disturbance There could be some scattered lower clouds, but the low levels of the atmosphere will remain dry.

A warm air mass will start to move into the area from the west with highs ranging from the middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas this afternoon. The warm and dry air mass will allow afternoon humidity values to drop into the 25 to 35% range this afternoon, with values as low as around 20% if enough mixing can occur. South to southeasterly winds will occur today with the surface high to the east of the area. Sustained winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 15 to 25 mph at times. The winds will be strongest this morning (after 9AM) to around mid day, then winds will gradually weaken through the afternoon. Some elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of the area late this morning and afternoon as the dry air mass and southerly winds combine.

The upper level ridge will move over the region on Friday with warm air advection occurring. Sunny skies will occur across the area in the morning into the afternoon hours with clouds increasing from west to east in the afternoon hours ahead of a system to the southwest. Highs will warm into the 60s on Friday with some low 70 readings possible across far southwestern Missouri. Much of the area is expected to remain dry through the afternoon hours. There is a low chance rain starts to move into the far southwestern potions of the area Friday afternoon, but the better rain chances will hold off until Friday evening if not Friday night. Moisture return will start to slowly return from west to east on Friday and afternoon humidity values are expected to drop into the 30 to 40% range. It is possible portions of the eastern Ozarks drop below 30%. Winds will be light on Friday as the surface high moves off to the east and the surface low remains well southwest of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

An upper level low is currently located across the west coast early this morning. The upper level low will continue to dig to the south today and tonight and will move to the east on Friday and into the southern Plains on Saturday. The low will then move east remaining south of the area Saturday night into Sunday. Surface low pressure will move northeast across the southern Plains Friday evening and night. A warm front will lift north into the area as the surface low lifts north. The front will be the focus for showers to develop along as it lifts northeast, as early as Friday evening but especially Friday night into Saturday. The front will stall at some point as it lifts north across the area but there are still minor differences between the models on exactly where, as some take the warm front north of the area by Saturday evening where others keep it over the area, as periods of rain develop and move along the front. Surface low pressure will move east into Arkansas on Saturday and across Arkansas on Saturday night. Additional rainfall will develop with the low and move east across the area. There again are some slight differences on the exact placement of the low and therefor just how far north the rain occurs into Saturday night. Some have rain over the entire area whereas others just the southern portions of the area. Overall, widespread rainfall is expected across the area with high chances for 1/4 to 1" across much of the area. There is the potential for some 1 to 2", especially across the south, but will be dependent on the exact placement of the warm front and the surface low track. The higher amounts will occur if the front stalls further to the south and the low slightly more to the north. There will be some weak elevated instability that could result in some embedded thunder at times but no severe weather is expected.

Some rain may linger into Sunday morning, especially across the east, but much of the day should remain dry, as highs warm into the 60s. An upper level ridge will build east across the region early to the middle of next week with well above temperatures expected through the middle of next week. The ensemble model members show the potential for highs warming into the 70s by the middle of next week, possibly well into the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Mid level clouds will move over the area this morning then clear this afternoon from west to east. There is the potential for some MVFR ceilings this morning across portions of southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. South to southeasterly winds will occur this morning and could be gusty out time. Winds will gradually weaken this afternoon and become more southerly. Winds will then become light this evening into tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.