textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will develop and move across the area at times from from late this morning into Monday morning. A few embedded rumbles of thunder will be possible on at times today.

- Active pattern continues into the middle of March. There is a risk for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A cold front is moving through the region early this morning. Early morning temperatures range from the upper 30s lower 40s across the north portions of the area to the middle 50s across far southern Missouri. The front will continue to move south early this morning with lows ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s this morning. The front will then stall across northern Arkansas today.

An upper level short wave trough will move east across the region today and tonight. Some weak MUCAPE will develop by late morning into the afternoon mainly along and north of I-44. Lift will start to spread into the area from west to east late this morning then on to the east this afternoon. Some scattered showers, and a few storms will develop and move northeast as the lift moves into the area. With the weak instability some isolated rumbles for thunder will occur at times, some small hail (pea size) and gusty winds up to 30mph could be possible with the storms. The better coverage this morning and afternoon will be generally be along and north of I-44 and there could be breaks in the rain at times. A warm nose will be in place across the area, and warm air advection will occur in the mid levels so mostly rain will occur. The surface freezing line is also expected to remain north of the area. Lift will continue to move east across the area this evening into Monday morning. Clouds ice will become more limited tonight and may see periods of drizzle into Monday with scattered showers overnight across the entire area at times through this period. Instability will will mainly be southwest of the area overnight, but an isolated rumble of storms may be possible across far southwestern Missouri. Gusty winds will start to develop this evening and tonight as the pressure gradient tightens across the area.

Temperatures will range from the middle/upper 40s north to the middle 50s south this afternoon with the front to the south and with more rainfall occurring north. The front that will stall across Arkansas will lift back to the northeast as a warm front on Monday afternoon and night. Highs will range from the lower 50s across central Missouri south of the warm front to the upper 60s to lower 70s across far southwestern Missouri Monday afternoon south of the front. Some scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible along the front Monday afternoon and night. The front will lift north of the area by Tuesday. Lift will continue to move across the region on Monday evening and night south of the front and period of drizzle will occur. Lows will only cool into the 40s and 50s on Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An active weather pattern then looks to set up this week into the weekend into next week as a long wave trough sets up over the western U.S. This will setup a southwest upper level flow pattern and above normal temperatures across the region. A series of upper level trough will move through the region bringing shower and thunderstorms chances to the region at times. this weekend into the weekend. There will be dry periods between the rounds of rain. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s this week with highs in the 60s and 70s, days with more rainfall especially in the afternoon hours will be slight cool.

An upper level trough will move across the region during the middle of the week. The warm front will be moving north across the area Monday night into Tuesday. Some showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be possible along the front on Tuesday morning, mainly north of I-44. Surface low pressure will develop ahead of the upper level trough and move northeast across the region bringing a cold front across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as it moves through the region. Models still differ slightly on the exact track and timing of the system. The front could start to move in as early as Tuesday night and as late as Wednesday night into Thursday. If enough instability can develop further enough north there could be the potential for some strong to severe storms with the frontal passage. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Depending on the exact timing of the front a break could occur on Thursday until another system moves in Friday into Saturday bringing another round of showers and storms to the area. Locally heavy rainfall will occur again with the system and there could be the potential for a few strong storms again with the system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Northerly winds and highs clouds will occur across the area tonight. Showers will develop Sunday morning and will move northeast through the area at times into Monday morning. A few isolated storms will be possible Sunday afternoon. Winds will become more easterly on Sunday and will be gusty at times by Sunday evening. MVFR to even IFR conditions will be possible with the heavier showers and storms on Sunday. Ceilings will lower by Sunday evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.