textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today with hot, dry, and increasingly breezy conditions with southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- High confidence in temperatures 15-20 degrees above climatological averages tomorrow. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Increasing confidence in chances for widespread rainfall late Tuesday through Thursday, including a risk for heavy rainfall.

- Pattern change incoming with high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High pressure is building overhead and will continue to do so over the next 48 hours. We will challenge record high temperatures over the next couple of days as we get into the low to mid 90s which is 20 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Skies have been sunny today but high clouds start filtering in on Tuesday ahead of our next system. Winds stay out of the south-southwest during the short term period and will be gusty at 25-30 mph ahead of the incoming trough. Overnight lows will be warm with temperatures in the 70s and southerly winds still breezy around 10 mph.

There are Elevated Fire Danger concerns today with southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph and min RH values in the 20 to 30% range. We have dewpoints near the MO/AR border that have dipped into the mid 40s and dropped the min RH values into the lower 20% range over that area. We have been able to mix very well today and its allowed us to really dry out. We are also still in a D3 drought (extreme drought) across most of the area. Fires can spread rapidly in these conditions and uncontrolled fires can pose a risk to life and property. Avoid activities that cause open flames or sparks. Properly discard of cigarettes and avoid parking on dry grass and check trailers for dragging chains. A more thorough Fire Weather section can be found below.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A welcomed pattern change will move through by mid-week due to the remnants of Hurricane Simon getting ingested into an upper- level wave. This system will move through the Plains early this week and bring us a chance by early Wednesday morning. Rain is forecast to start near sunrise and will continue intermittently through Thursday evening as a couple of cold fronts move through the area.

Severe Threat?: Our PWAT values will be near record for this event from 2.0-2.5" which is normally near 1.67" for this time of year. This means these rain showers will be efficient rainfall producers which could lead to nuisance flooding if rain showers train over the same area. There is a chance for a strong thunderstorm or two on Wednesday by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Any strong to severe storms that occur will be over a very localized area and will only last for a short amount of time. Right now, SPC has a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather issued for Wednesday. This area goes as far west as Pittsburg, KS, down to the MO/AR border, as far north as Stockton/Lebanon and as far east as Mountain Grove. There will be a small window of time where 0-6km bulk shear will be near 35 kts and MUCAPE of ~2500 J/kg in an uncapped environment just ahead of the cold front. Though, this favorable environment won't last long as the environment quickly becomes stable as the first front moves through. It's important to note that this severe risk is highly conditional due to how overworked the atmosphere will be from the rain that will have occurred earlier in the morning. If the atmosphere can't recover, we'll just see rain and miss out on the strong/severe storms. For this reason, we are not completely sold on the idea that we'll have severe weather on Wednesday.

Rainfall Amounts: As for rainfall totals, the amounts continue to decrease with every forecast update. Now, the range is 0.5-3" across the area. There is a sharp gradient of rainfall amounts with the lower amounts (0.5-1.5") occurring southeast of I-44 and the higher amounts (1.75-3") northwest of the interstate. Unfortunately, this sharp cut-off in rainfall amounts may occur over Greene county.

Temperatures: As for temperatures for the rest of the week, highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, we'll see a change in temperatures with highs only in the lower 60s and lows getting down into the mid 30s to upper 40s. It'll feel chilly compared to the mid 90s we'll be experiencing earlier this week. High pressure moves in this weekend with another day of perfect fall weather on Saturday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and Sunday a bit warmer with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR through the period with gusty southwesterly winds up to 30 knots through the rest of the afternoon. Winds diminish to around 10 knots around 00z tonight and turn southerly. Winds increase and turn southwesterly again tomorrow near 15z with wind speeds up to 25 knots. High clouds start to build in by late morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A prolonged period with substantial rainfall deficits from late Summer and into the Fall has contributed to worsening drought conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The latest Drought Monitor valid Oct 6 showed a continued expansion of the D3 (Extreme Drought) and an overall categorical degradation across the fire weather forecast area. Resultant fuel moisture indices show similar trends. Woody FM readings between 60-70 and Herb FM values of 30-60 suggest these fuels are cured or very dry. Combined, these produce a Growing Season Index (GSI) of 0.1 to 0.3, indicating fuel dormancy. Furthermore, KBDI values greater than 600 (and in some cases greater than 700) also suggest fuels are near or completely cured.

While Red Flag Warning (RFW) conditions are not forecast to be met in the next seven days, we will officially begin our fire weather season messaging, and headlines will be issued should RFW criteria be forecast from this point onward.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

October 12: KSGF: 91/2024 KJLN: 93/2024 KVIH: 90/2024 KUNO: 87/1975

October 13: KSGF: 88/2017 KJLN: 88/1952 KVIH: 88/1899 KUNO: 93/1989

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.