textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated Fire Danger for potentially erratic fire behavior is expected across portions of the area this afternoon/evening.

- Near-record breaking temperatures and breezy conditions will occur across the area again today.

- Scattered showers and storms are expected this evening into Wednesday, mainly north of Highway 54. A few strong storms with hail may be possible.

- Additional storms are expected to move into the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. There is a Marginal (1 out 5) risk for severe storms west of Highway 65 and a Slight (2 out 5) risk for severe storms west of I-49 Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Another round of storms are expected Friday evening into Saturday morning. There could be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this round.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The latest surface analysis reveals a broad area of surface high pressure centered off the Eastern Seaboard. To the north, a series of surface waves with trailing cold fronts extends from New England southwestward into the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestward toward the Pacific Northwest. Locally, the region remains within the warm sector ahead of a cold front currently positioned across northwestern Missouri. Within this warm sector, widespread strong southerly to southwesterly winds prevail, with temperatures currently in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early overnight hours, the area will remain under the influence of the warm sector. The combination of strong winds, warm temperatures, and low relative humidity will result in elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, particularly across southwestern portions of the CWA that did not see morning convection. Later this afternoon/evening, the surface front currently over northwestern Missouri will drift southward toward central Missouri. This boundary will provide the necessary lift for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late this evening and through the early overnight period, before activity begins to dissipate toward sunrise. Some storms may be strong to severe, especially across the northern third of the CWA, where the SPC has a Day 1 Marginal Risk. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards associated with any organized convection.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to diminish by Wednesday morning as the frontal boundary retreats northward as a warm front. As the region is re-established within the warm sector, a strengthening low-level jet will develop during the morning and persist through the afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, a surface wave is progged to develop along the Colorado Front Range and eject northeastward toward northwestern Missouri. This evolution will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Given the favorable environment, the SPC has placed the CWA under a Day 2 Marginal Risk, with a Day 2 Slight Risk clipping the far northwestern counties. All convective hazards will be possible as the primary cold front traverses the region.

The period will be characterized by strong winds and warm temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. A sagging cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight, followed by a brief reprieve on Wednesday as the front retreats. Gusty winds will return Wednesday ahead of a more potent cold front, which will bring a renewed threat of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

There is good agreement in the guidance for much of the long term period with a active pattern setting up across the Middle Mississippi Valley region through the end of the week. The first part of the period begins, with the shortwave moving east into the region and this will usher a cold front into Missouri. There is some uncertainty where this boundary stalls and therefore uncertainty on the PoPs for Thursday. Overall looks like based on the various ensembles systems there is a decent shot for at least measurable precipitation. However, the finer details will need to be worked out in coming forecast packages and with help from CAMs. If storms do develop perhaps a stronger storm could be realized, but overall the parameter space is on the weaker side. This seems to line up with SPCs marginal risk for a small portion of the CWA on Thursday.

The previously mentioned boundary will lift northward Friday as another shortwave pushes eastward. This will help deepen a surface low and this helps to a tighten the pressure gradient into southwest Missouri. This will generate gusty southerly winds especially toward the western parts of the CWA, where NBM probs of greater than 30 mph gust are around 70 percent. This will also surge afternoon highs into the lower 80s. The shortwave and advancing cold front will aid increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms (generally 80-90 percent chance of rain) especially Friday night into Saturday morning. There is some indication of for heavier rain in the ensembles given the plume of PWATs and convection. This will have to be monitored as it will depend on rounds of convection ahead of this feature given the progressive nature of this cold front. Some of the AI and machine learning data is also showing some signal for stronger storms, but timing for better instability and shear are a bit off. This will have to be watched closely in later forecasts.

High pressure will push toward the area and this will lead to dry weather through the weekend into early next week. In the wake of this cold front expect northwest flow and more seasonable airmass to arrive across southwest Missouri for the weekend, with afternoon highs topping out into the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday and Sunday. Then by early next week afternoon highs surge back into the upper 60s and even lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A frontal boundary located across central Missouri will linger in place through tonight and into Wednesday before lifting north into Wednesday afternoon. Through tonight and into tomorrow, scattered showers and storms will impact mainly locations along and north of the I-44 corridor.

Where showers and storms impact the region, ceilings and visibilities may fall to MVFR, otherwise expect VFR flight conditions. Winds at the areas terminals will remain southerly through the forecast as the front remains north of the terminals.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.