textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and storms will move through the area late this evening into Tuesday. Showers and a few storms linger into Wednesday.

- There is a Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms tonight into Tuesday with hail to the size to the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph the main risks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A weak upper level disturbance is moving east across the plains and will move across the area today. Some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder may be able to develop across central Missouri late this morning into early this afternoon with this disturbance but most if not all locations will remain dry through this afternoon.

Surface low pressure will remain over the central Plains today with gusty south to southwesterly winds developing this morning and occurring into early this evening. Wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur at times.

A cold front will move south into the area late this evening/tonight and move through the area pushing south through the area by Tuesday evening. Showers and storms will likely develop along the front this evening to the north and west of the area and move south through the area late this evening into the overnight hours. MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg will be in place. Deep layer shear will be around 20 to 25 kts when the storms first move into the area, and could support an isolated damaging wind risk and a hail risk up to quarters tonight into Tuesday morning. The front will continue to move south through the area on Tuesday. Instability will increase ahead of the front south of I-44 and especially across south central Missouri Tuesday afternoon. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible along the front. Hail up to the size of half dollars and damaging winds up to 60 mph will be the main risks with the storms on Tuesday afternoon. The window for severe storms will be short for our area as the front moves south of the area by Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Showers and a few storms will then occur at times behind the front Tuesday evening/night with light rain/drizzling lingering into Wednesday as an upper level trough moves east through the region. No severe weather is expected during this time.

The region will then be in a northwest upper level flow pattern through the end of the week. Highs in the 50s are expected on Wednesday with the clouds and light rain/drizzle at times. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s with highs in the 70s returning by the weekend.

The ensemble model members then indicate additional rain chances late this weekend as an upper level trough moves across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty southerly wind will occur across the area this morning into early this evening then winds will weaken this into tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will possible tonight into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into and through the region.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.