textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening. Primary hazards are hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph wind gusts.

- Gusty southerly winds of 35-45 mph on Wednesday.

- Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with all hazards possible. Primary hazards are tennis ball size hail, 70-80 mph winds, and a few tornadoes. The greatest risk is across central MO. Localized heavy rainfall may support flash flooding.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday into early Thursday night, mainly along and south of I-44. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and flash flooding are possible.

- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: Radar depicts a few showers and highly isolated thunderstorms pushing into southern MO early this afternoon, with most locations remaining dry further north. Any thunderstorms with this activity are expected to remain non-severe. The attention then turns to better moisture advecting northeast out of the Red River Valley into southeast KS and southwest MO by this evening. This can be gleaned from dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s to near 70. Meanwhile, SBCAPE pushes towards 1500-2000 J/kg in the vicinity of unidirectional deep layer shear of 40-50 knots. This setup may be supportive of a few isolated thunderstorms (40-60% chances), potentially supercellular in nature. Forcing remains the limiting factor, and as a result gives us reduced confidence in the extent of development and coverage. Nonetheless, if isolated thunderstorms are able to develop the environment will support a strong to severe thunderstorm or two. Primary hazards are large up to golf balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Thunderstorm splits may support a left- mover, further supporting large hail potential. This potential is captured with the latest SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk across portions of the area. Most locations remain dry outside of southeast KS into far southwest MO, generally west of Highway 65 and south of Highway 54 towards the Interstate 49 corridor.

Overnight lows fall into the 60s areawide, with changes on horizon ahead of the next system taking shape into Wednesday with a frontal passage.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Wednesday: A shortwave trough is expected translate through the Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, with an associated low pressure system expected to develop into eastern NE and IA. A tight pressure gradient will develop in the response to the deepening low pressure system, supporting strong southerly winds around 35 to 45 mph in response to sufficient mixing. Confidence is low in exceeding 45 mph wind gusts, with probabilities around 20-40%. For this reason, wind headlines are not expected at this time.

As we progress into the afternoon, strong warm air advection will support dewpoints into the lower/middle 70s as temperatures reach into the upper 80s to near 90. This will result in a rather hot and humid afternoon across the area ahead of an approaching cold front late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Latest guidance remains on track with the previous forecast, suggesting the most favorable environment for strong to severe thunderstorms will be along and north of Interstate 44, especially into central MO. This is captured with the latest SPC Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk. This environment will be characterized by ample instability (MUCAPE 3000+ J/kg) in the vicinity of 50-60 knot deep layer shear. Expect supercells to develop along the SW to NE oriented front by late afternoon and slide through the area in the evening/night. All hazards remains in play, particularly north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Large hail environment is supported by steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.0 C/km) and ample instability through the hail growth zone as seen in latest forecast soundings. Large Hail Parameter around 12 to 16 in this area suggest hail size to push towards tennis to baseball, especially if cells are able to remain more discrete in nature. Meanwhile, severe damaging winds could occur within these thunderstorms as theta-E differences approach 25 to 30 K with DCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. There is still some remaining uncertainty if supercells grow upscale into a line and/or bowing segments, and thus the extent of the damaging wind gusts. Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph remain plausible. As for tornadoes, strong low-level shear will be present, and rather unidirectional in nature. Expect sufficient ingestion of streamwise vorticity with supercell structures as a result, which could support a few tornadoes. This tornadic environment will be present in central MO, and diminish further south as the low-level becomes less favorable. Large scale assent becomes weaker into the evening, and thus the severe potential and thunderstorm coverage decreases further south towards the Interstate 44 and south. This well captured in the latest trends of CAMs.

An additional concern with the system moving through on Wednesday will be localized heavy rainfall. Efficient rainfall rates are forecast given PWATs of 1.7-2.1 inches. The antecedent conditions in place (saturated soils and elevated streamflows) will support flash flooding in areas where training of thunderstorms occur. WPC depicts this potential with a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Additional flash flooding will become more of a concern into Thursday as post- frontal showers and thunderstorms persist across southern MO as the front stalls into northern AR.

Thursday: With the frontal slowly meandering through southern MO into Thursday morning before stalling into northern AR, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop. Strong warm air advection persists, with ample instability and shear to support a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk exists along and south of Interstate 44 on Thursday. Additionally, a a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook is stationed across the same area. Likewise to Wednesday evening/night's threat, antecedent conditions remain favorable to support localized flash flooding. The extent of precipitation coverage north of Interstate 44 remains minimal on Thursday. Overall, cooler on Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

This Weekend-Early Next Week: As we turn the page into Friday, a break in the active pattern is expected with a drier forecast. Highs in the lower 80s. This break in the pattern appears to be short-lived as a series of shortwaves are progged to move through northwest flow with a ridge south of the region. This pattern is indicative of MCSs, bringing additional rain chances through the weekend. Associated severe and/or flooding may accompany each system's passage this weekend. This will need be monitored closely given the saturated soils and elevated streamflows, especially across the western half of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light scattered showers moving through the area early this afternoon before dissipating. Additional low chances for isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the early evening, as depicted with PROB30 group. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots become more southerly into tonight. Winds increase on Wednesday morning, with sustained winds at 10 to 20 knots and gusts of 25 to 35 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.