textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-45% chances of isolated to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-44 again Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Gusty winds to 50 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most stay dry.

- Rain chances increase to 40-60% Thursday through Saturday.

- Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, returning into the 90s midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: 00Z upper air analysis indicates the continued presence of a weak upper-level trough over the Mid-South, with building ridging over the Desert Southwest. Water vapor satellite imagery depicts weakly cyclonic flow associated with the upper low over the Missouri bootheel, with the dry conveyor belt of the cyclone stretching from northeast Missouri to the Big Bend of Texas, clearly outlining the western periphery of the trough. Surface high pressure has developed over the Midwest, with calm winds and patchy fog across the area early this morning.

Looking at more of the same today, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s this afternoon, with light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies across most of the region this afternoon. The upper low will continue to dilly-dally over southeast Missouri, lending itself to another afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of the I-44 corridor. Most locations will stay dry, but areas that do see showers and storms could see a few strong cells produce downburst winds up to 50 mph, lightning, and heavy downpours. The best thunderstorm chances will be areas further south and east between 1-8PM. Tonight, lows in the mid- to upper 60s will lend themselves to additional fog potential, especially in the eastern Ozarks.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Wednesday: Wednesday is another day of more of the same, with the 20-40% chances of isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms slowly sliding east of the Highway 63 corridor. As the low slinks east, the high pressure over the Midwest will allow our winds to turn more southerly, bringing warmer air into the region. Highs warm to the upper 80s in the east and to the low 90s in the west, raising heat indices back into the 90s.

Thursday-Monday: The upper-level ridge will build across the central CONUS behind the low as it progresses further and further east. Attempts to kick the ridge begin on Thursday as a shortwave currently over Cascadia pushes east and gets absorbed into a stronger synoptic trough in the Hudson Bay area, and the shortwave energy ripples south through the northern Plains. Model trends continue to indicate that the furthest south the vort max will get with this push is northern Missouri, so Thursday's PoPs are 15-45% with the highest chances remaining confined to our northernmost counties. This subtle wave primes the central Plains for lee cyclogenesis Friday and Saturday, which has another and perhaps better shot at bringing impactful weather to the area.

The southerly flow will bring more moisture back into the area Thursday and Friday, with an LREF mean PWAT of 1.7-1.8" across the region by Friday as the shortwave approaches. NBM is known to struggle with timing the breakdown of deep ridging regimes in the summertime, and has been pushing the highest PoPs back by 12 hours for the last couple of forecast cycles. However, the other factor to consider with PoPs is how the initial shortwave Thursday will cause a ripple effect on the following days' conditions. If convection in the Northern Plains on Wednesday evening/night is strong enough to send an outflow boundary as far south as Kansas/Missouri, it could serve as a forcing mechanism to develop thunderstorms without the help of the shortwave, and the improved thermos from the southerly flow could support strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has introduced a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for areas generally north of I-44 to account for this potential. However, there a lot of scenarios where this doesn't happen, and higher storm chances stay north of us and the area remains dry all through Thursday.

The high uncertainty in how Thursday will evolve causes that ripple effect into the confidence of Friday and Saturday's forecast. Global AI models have been consistently pointing towards Friday into Saturday as the most likely timing for a shortwave to reach and impact our area, which aligns with a higher confidence 40-60% storm chance. Machine learning severe weather probabilities are 15-30% across central Missouri on Friday and 10-15% areawide on Saturday, but severe weather chances will be highly dependent on the available wind shear. The biggest factor will be how potential storms on Thursday impact the thermodynamic environment available on Friday, which will then impact the environment available on Saturday. Regardless, the several MCS systems that could be possible towards the end of the week will be capable of deep convection and training along what will likely be a weak boundary, so despite the low confidence in what will actually occur at this point, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all feature Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risks for excessive rainfall from WPC.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Some localized patches of fog are reducing visibility across the area to start the TAF period, with observations bouncing back and forth between IFR and VFR at KJLN and KSGF. As the sun rises, fog will quickly dissipate and VFR conditions will prevail with generally northerly winds. Low chance for isolated thunderstorms again this afternoon between 18Z and 00Z, but confidence in impacts to TAF sites is low with better chances further east of the sites. KBBG would be the most likely site to see storms, but probability is still <30%, so left out of TAF at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.