textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence in above-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Tuesday.

- Front moves through Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing low chances (<30%) for light rain across southern Missouri later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Slightly cooler conditions then occur behind the front mid week.

- Additional rain chances will then occur late week into the weekend.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above- average precipitation into mid-February.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

An upper level disturbance is currently over the region early this morning and will continue to move the southeast and south of the area this morning. Just some high level clouds are occurring with the shortwave and will move off to the south also this morning with mostly sunny skies occurring today.

Warm air advection will occur across the area today behind the disturbance. 850mb temperature will warm into the teens C, and with sunny skies will support highs ranging from the upper 60s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 70s across extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri today. Some record highs could be approached today, see Climate section below for more details on record highs for today. Southerly winds will occur today generally around 10mph with gusts up to 15 to 20mph at times. A dry air mass will also be in place across the area today as afternoon humidity values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. This could lead to some elevated fire weather conditions west of Highway 65 this afternoon where fuels can dry out.

A cold front will then move south through the region on Tuesday. Highs will warm into the 60s again on Tuesday, as the cooler air mass assiocated with the front will lag some behind the front before moving into the area. Moisture return will be limited ahead of the front with a dry air mass remain in place into Tuesday. Cloud ice will be limited and low level moisture will be on the drier side. There will be some decent lift with the front, but with the dry air mass in place most of the area will likely remain dry. A few sprinkles/light rain will be possible (<30% chance) for portions of southern Missouri later Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Slightly cooler conditions will occur mid week as highs mainly warm into the 50s mid week. A few locations could warm into the 60s on Thursday. Lows will generally cool into the 30s each night Tuesday night through the end of the week.

An upper level disturbance will move southeast out of the northern Plains and across the region late week (Thursday/Friday). This system will bring some rain chances (20-40%) to the area Thursday into Friday. Moisture return will remain limited and this rain may not be widespread in nature. There are ensemble members that keep the area dry with this disturbance late week.

The ensemble model members then indicate a shortwave trough moving on to the west coast late week then moving across the region this weekend. There continues to be differences in the track of this system among the model members and from run to run. The more southern members keep most of the rain south of the area, but the northern members bringing the better rain chances over the entire area. Still going with a 40 to 60% chance for rain for the area this weekend but again the exact details will be dependent on the exact track and timing of the system which there are still questions on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight through the day on Monday. High level clouds and light winds will occur overnight. Southerly winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening around 10kts and could see some gusts up to 15kt at times during the afternoon and evening hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 9: KSGF: 76/1932 KJLN: 73/2000 KVIH: 69/2000 KUNO: 73/1954

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.