textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire area through Friday. Highs in the 90s with heat index values of 100-105 can be expected. Overnight lows will only drop into the 70s. Several daily records may be tied or broken.

- There is a 20-40% chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, north of I-44. There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe weather for locations north of Highway 54 with the main risks being damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning. - Isolated afternoon/evening storms will be possible again on Wednesday (10-20%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a strong upper level high over the Tennessee River Valley. Our area is on the northwest periphery of the ridge but also just far enough away from shortwave energy across Kansas-Nebraska-Iowa. A surface front was nearly stationary from Topeka to St Joseph with a weak pre frontal trough just southeast of Kansas City. An 850mb jet has allowed for surface wind gusts around 20-25mph early this afternoon. Hot temps were being observed with most locations already in the middle 90s and heat index values approaching 100.

Heat: Temps will continue to heat up through the afternoon as only scattered cumulus will develop east of Highway 65. While some mixing will occur, dew points will likely remain in the 60s to around 70. High temps will likely reach the middle to upper 90s in most areas and will challenge records. Heat index values will remain around 100. Temps tonight will be slow to drop with lows in the 70s likely. The Heat Risk tool is showing areas of major to extreme heat risk for the area. The Heat Advisory not only remains in effect today but has also been extended through Friday (more on that further below).

Rain Chances Today/Tonight: The front will slowly slide southeast towards Kansas City this afternoon. The pre frontal trough will likely slide into the far northern CWA as well. Both of these features will provide forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest REFS guidance suggests that the pre frontal trough may allow for a few storms to form up around Lake of the Ozarks after 4pm however coverage will be low. The stronger front looks to remain northwest of the area therefore the higher rain chances will stay just outside of the area. If a storm can become organized (shear is fairly weak this far south though) then brief wind gusts of 50-60 mph would occur. The marginal severe risk from SPC is still aligned along and north of Highway 54. It will likely be a struggle to see many storms south of Highway 54. The low level jet will continue to feed storm development across northern Missouri overnight and may eventually force a boundary into the area for Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Afternoon Storm Chances Wednesday: The upper level ridge will slowly begin to retrograde towards the area which equates to rising mid level heights. This is not helpful for storm development. However if that weak boundary/wind shift can make it into the area then it may be enough to force some scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. The latest REFS shows a consensus of storms from the Branson area to Springfield then up towards Rolla (roughly where that boundary may end up or wash out). Currently thinking only a handful of storms and have kept pops at or below 20 percent. The lack of lift is the main limiting factor at this time for higher pops. The strongest storms on Wednesday could produce wind gusts up to 50mph given increasing PW values around 1.75in. Many areas will remain dry however.

Heat Advisory Extended: Ensembles suggest that the upper high will slowly retrograde west mid to late week. This will keep 850mb temps in the 20-24C range which will continue to keep surface temperatures 15+ degrees above average. Daily highs in the middle to upper 90s are likely with lows in the 70s. Some afternoon mixing will occur however daily heat index values around 100 will continue. The Heat Risk tool continues to support the potential for major to extreme heat impacts. This is likely due to the prolonged heat aspect and the climatological aspect. All this to say that the Heat Advisory has been extended through 8pm Friday for the entire area.

Pattern Change Late Weekend? Ensembles then suggest that stronger shortwave energy will push into the Rockies late in the weekend. This will allow for decreasing mid level heights and temps along with a frontal passage at some point. The timing of this front remains in question however there is cooler air behind it. Currently precip chances are 30-50% Sunday night into Monday with that frontal passage. NBM temp spreads do increase during this timeframe however even the higher percentiles would indicate highs in the 80s which would be welcome.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR flight conditions likely to prevail through most of the TAF period. South-southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots through tonight, becoming southwesterly into Wednesday. Cumulus field gradually dissipates this evening, before redeveloping on Wednesday again. Any isolated showers or thunderstorms look to remain well north of the TAF sites through tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KJLN: 98/1956 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 98/1954

September 16: KSGF: 95/1980 KJLN: 98/1954 KVIH: 96/1954 KUNO: 99/1980

September 17: KSGF: 96/1953 KJLN: 95/1953 KVIH: 97/1953 KUNO: 97/1953

September 18: KSGF: 95/2019 KJLN: 97/2022 KVIH: 95/1953 KUNO: 96/1972

September 19: KSGF: 96/1954 KJLN: 99/2024 KUNO: 97/1954

September 20: KUNO: 97/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15: KSGF: 74/1936

September 16: KSGF: 73/1927

September 17: KSGF: 73/1978

September 18: KSGF: 74/1931

September 19: KSGF: 73/1931

September 20: KSGF: 74/2018

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.