textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms this afternoon and evening. Low-confidence risk of an isolated downburst producing winds of 50 to 60 mph.

- Heat Advisory in effect Sunday through Thursday as daily heat indices climb to around 100 degrees. Little night time relief with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

- An overall drier pattern will accompany the heat next week with only low-end rain chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

A zonal pattern exists aloft this afternoon with a stationary front lingering across central Missouri, connecting westward to a surface low in the High Plains. Broken cloud cover has allowed for localized peaks of solar insolation amidst still-elevated dew points in the low to mid 70s areawide. A complex of showers and thunderstorms associated with a fairly large MCV is pushing through southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois early this afternoon; a secondary (weak) MCV coming out of southeast Kansas has struggled as it's moved into southwest Missouri, barely apparent on radar or satellite imagery anymore.

Isolated Storms this Afternoon and Evening:

There will be two potential impetuses for convective initiation this afternoon and evening. The first is the aforementioned decaying MCV across southwest Missouri that may act to reinvigorate a few updrafts east of Highway 65 during the afternoon hours given still-sufficient instability and moisture. Little in the way of lift will act to keep coverage fairly isolated, however. The second chance will emerge along the northern convergent boundary on the nose of the low-level jet across southwest and west-central Missouri this evening. Indeed, some CAMs do want to initiate a few showers and storms along this boundary. If updrafts can get tall enough, a marginal risk for downburst wind gusts of 50-60 mph may become apparent. Confidence in both scenarios is currently low, however, as forcing is weak. Rain chances are their relative highest across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, where they're generally between 30 to 40%.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The long term forecast will be defined by hot and humid conditions with few precipitation chances. Global ensembles continue to demonstrate strong agreement in building an upper- level ridge across the eastern CONUS and locking us into that pattern for much if not all of next week. NBM percentile data show unusually small interquartile spreads (2-4 degrees) through next week, indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Highs in the low to mid 90s will be common, with daily heat indices in the low 100s. Furthermore, overnight low temperatures in the 70s with continued humid conditions will provide little relief from the heat. A Heat Advisory is in effect areawide Sunday through Thursday.

The ridge will keep precipitation chances to a minimum throughout the week. However, with a humid airmass in place, the possibility of pulse convection cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Broken to overcast cloud cover is hiding some very localized pockets of MVFR ceilings, but most observations suggest VFR conditions are prevailing across southern Missouri. Cloud cover will gradually clear throughout the afternoon and evening.

There is a low chance (20-30%) of an isolated thunderstorm across southern Missouri during the afternoon, so any lightning mention was relegated to a PROB30 group.

A strengthening low-level jet will nudge into southern Missouri after dark. Forecast LLWS appears marginal for mention in the TAF itself, and given the occurrence would be beyond 6 hours, no mention was included in the 18Z TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.