textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop north of I-44 this afternoon into this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, hail up to the size quarters being the main risk.

- Showers and storms will develop across the central Plains tonight and will move east into extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late tonight into Wednesday morning. There could be a few strong to severe storms with hail to the size of quarters the main risk. - A cold front will move east across the area on Wednesday and showers and storms will develop along the front, mainly along and east of Highway 65 late Wednesday morning into the evening hours. Strong to severe storms will occur again with hail and isolated damaging winds gusts the main risks.

- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be possible with hail and wind the main risks.

- Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the the rounds of rain and could lead to isolated flooding where locations receive the heaviest rain from the multiple rounds of rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current conditions and synoptic overview: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery continue to show a split flow across the CONUS with polar jet remaining along the U.S. Canadian border and the southern stream active from the four corners region into the central/southern plains and east to the mid Atlantic. The next large scale wave was located over Colorado with west- southwesterly flow ahead of the upper wave. The upper wave was helping to develop low pressure along the frontal boundary in Oklahoma with the front having lifted northward into central Missouri this morning. The front lifting into our northern CWA has cleared out the earlier stratus/fog and also brought temperatures into the 60s and 70s for most of the CWA, all but north of the front in our far northern CWA.

Rest of this afternoon...may continue to see some scattered showers near and north of the front this afternoon, but much of the area south of the front will remain capped. Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid to upper 70s in the south to the low 60s in the far north of the CWA which will remain north of the front.

Tonight: May see some additional shower/thunderstorm coverage along and north of the front during the evening/overnight as the low level jet begins to strengthen. Some of the stronger storms may produce some hail up to the size of quarters. Lows will be quite mild south of the front in the mid to upper 50s with upper 40s along and just north of the front.

Wednesday: As we get close to Wednesday morning, the surface low and frontal boundary will begin to drift into the western portions of the CWA and convection is expected to expand in coverage and then slowly shift east across the area. There should be enough elevated instability for some marginal hail risk during the morning with any stronger storms. Could start to see some surface based instability develop over south central Missouri during the afternoon ahead of the front with an added damaging wind gust potential and a limited tornado risk. Heavy rain will accompany the storms, but with recent drought conditions am not expecting any widespread flooding concerns with this first round of storms. Repeated thunderstorms over the same area may however result in a localized flood risk.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Convection will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight Wednesday night, but should diminish in intensity as instability diminishes during the late evening. The upper wave should exit the area to the northeast by Thursday morning, however it is quickly replaced by southwest flow aloft in advance of the next trough moving into the Rockies.

Moisture will begin to surge back to the north as a strong low level jet develops over eastern KS into western Missouri by Thursday night. Severe weather chances should remain west of the area during the day Thursday but then this risk shifts eastward into the forecast area on Friday and Friday night as the frontal boundary shifts east into the area. The best surface based CAPE and shear combo are located over our western half of the CWA during the afternoon/evening on Friday. All modes of severe storms look to be possible there at this time ahead of the cold front.

Additional heavy rain will accompany the chance for severe storms Friday and Friday night. In combination with the storms earlier in the week, there may be an increased flood risk. See hydro section for more information.

The upper pattern looks to remain active through at least the middle part of next week with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

For the 18z TAFS, the warm front has surged north into central Missouri and rapidly cleared out the stratus and fog over far southern Missouri by mid morning. Some scattered showers were developing along and north of the front, but north of the TAF sites. Expecting most of the 18z TAFS to be dry until the last six - seven hours as the convection developing ahead of the cold front in Kansas begins to move into the area from the west. Generally expecting VFR conditions until then, but could see some IFR with the showers/storms.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Although some locations recieved more than 1" of rainfall this past week, it was not enough to overcome long-term precipitation deficits across the area. Abnormally dry soils continue to persist across the CWA. The latest drought monitor shows abnormally dry (north) to severe and extreme drought (south) affecting the region. USGS streamgages indicate streamflow is running below normal to much below normal across many area waterways. With dry antecedant conditions prevailing, official forecasts for our river forecast points do not indicate flooding occuring. Keep in mind, official forecasts only utilize 24-48 hours of QPF so any rainfall forecast beyond that time window will not be reflected in the official river forecasts.

Looking at longer range (10 day), probabilistic HEFS forecasts for our river forecast points show the most likely outcome (50th percentile) indicates flows increasing, however, none are expected to reach flood stage. If more extreme QPF amounts materialize the 10% chance flow scenarios do indicate a number of river forecast locations reaching flood stage. The most recent Flood Hazard Outlook indicates that there is a limited chance for flash, urban, and river flooding later this week into next week.

The WPC Excessive Rain Outlook indicates a marginal risk for excessive rain on Wed and Fri/Sat across at least portions of the region. Flash Flood Guidance across the area ranges from 1.5"-2" (1 hour) to 2.5"- 3" (6 hour). If these thresholds are exceeded localized flash fooding may occur. Although, at this time, it does not appear that widespread significant river flooding will occur, stay tuned as these events unfold.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.