textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-30% chance for light showers north of I-44 this afternoon and evening. A stray weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out north of Highway 54.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures through the end of the week. Low potential for patchy frost exists in the eastern Ozarks Friday night and Saturday night.

- Temperatures are expected to warm back up to near or above average early next week. 30-70% shower and thunderstorm chances also return with this pattern change starting Monday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The synoptic pattern has not changed much in the last 24 hours. The main change is the upper-level closed low shifting slightly southeast over Lake Superior, a slight amplification of a shortwave trough extending through the Dakotas, Mountain States, and into California, and a southward trend of the jet core, which has also shifted a surface cold front further south. Additionally, a secondary cold front is developing along the amplifying shortwave across the Dakotas. Our current temperatures are a bit chilly in the middle 40s, with forecast morning lows to reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. With a surface high pressure system moving through, calm winds, and clear skies, would not be surprised to see some patchy frost in low- lying areas out in the eastern Ozarks.

Cooler than average temperatures today and tonight:

With the cold front south of the area, temperatures will continue to be cooler than average today with highs in the middle 60s. Clouds overhead through the day and night will keep lows tonight a bit warmer in the lower to middle 40s.

10-30% chance for light showers and maybe a stray thunderstorm:

The jet core is progged to slowly lift north through the day, which will increase high-level cloud coverage. Short-term model guidance suggests weak synoptic ascent beneath this jet core, which could produce some light sprinkles across the area during mid-day (5-15% chance). Confidence is low in this, though, as the cloud layers appear to be above the layer of lift.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned secondary cold front will be sagging south. Short-term forecast soundings show some marginal elevated moisture leading to very weak levels of elevated instability along the front (50-250 J/kg). CAM members break out scattered showers along the 850 mb front late this afternoon into the evening north of Highway 54 (15-30% chance/coverage). Given very weak instability, these should mainly be showers, but there's a <5% chance for a few lightning strikes in any shower. As the front drops south, synoptic descent takes over, and the showers should dissipate. However, leftover light showers may still make it to the I-44 corridor this evening (15% chance).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Cooler than average temperatures expected through Saturday:

Following the passage of the secondary cold front, temperatures will be coolest Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Lows will be chilly in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Light winds and relatively clearer skies at night could then lead to a low potential for patchy frost, especially in low- lying areas that drop to 36 F or below. Therefore, care should be given to any vulnerable plants/crops the next few nights.

Saturday, global models are hinting at another clipper shortwave dropping through the area which could squeeze out a few more light showers or sprinkles, but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

Pattern change initiates warm-up and rain chances next week:

Global ensembles kick the zonal flow and jet core out of our area starting Sunday. This will create a rising geopotential height trend. Therefore, temperatures will begin to warm up to near average in the 70s Sunday and into early next week. With northwest flow and a subtropical jet still over the Gulf, appreciable moisture will be locked away. That said, clusters depict the potential for a clipper system to drop through the flow, bringing some marginal Pacific moisture. Some members bring enough moisture to produce some weak instability along with this system. This will bring low 15-20% chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

The pattern really begins to change toward the end of the forecast period Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday as the subtropical jet pivots to a southwesterly orientation and looks to potentially merge with a polar shortwave, opening up the Gulf and lifting more appreciable moisture into our area. There's still a good deal of uncertainty in ensembles, especially as at this time a closed low will be over the southwest CONUS area (which notoriously is hard to resolve in models), so we can't say much more other than shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday night through Wednesday (30-70% chance). Machine Learning/AI and dynamic model ensembles do start hinting at severe probabilities with this pattern change as the simulated environment has increased probabilities from 5-25% to a 15-30% chance for severe weather. Cluster analysis depicts mainly timing differences in shortwave progression, which means any severe risk will likely be confined to one of the days between Monday night and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period, with increasing mid-level cloud cover. Winds will generally be light at 3-8 kts, but shifting around most of the period. A cold fropa between 18-21Z will hard shift mainly east- southeasterly winds to mainly northwesterly, but speeds are expected to stay light in the 3-8 kt range.

There is a low 15% chance for some light showers to make it to SGF after 04Z, but these should be dissipating just north of the site, precluding any mention in the TAFs at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.