textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning across portions of southeast KS, southwest MO, and into central MO through Friday. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory is in effect for daily heat index values around 100 to 106.

- Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk for portions of central Missouri today and again on Thursday. Gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be the risk. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited across the area and most locations will likely remain dry.

- Confidence is increasing in the hot conditions continuing across the area into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region along with the hot air mass. 850mb temperatures will remain in the middle 20C today with highs in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. Some mixing will occur again today with gusty southwesterly winds occurring during the morning and afternoon hours, with gusts around 20 to 30 mph occurring at times mainly west of Highway 65 today. RH values will drop to around 30 to 45% this afternoon. Heat index values around 100 to near 110 will occur today with the hottest conditions north of I-44. The Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect for locations generally north of I-44 with a Heat Advisory in effect for the rest of the area through Friday.

Instability will increase with the heating of the day today and the cap will start to weaken across portions of the central Missouri. The cap may not completely weaken though so coverage in storms will remain limited across the area with most locations likely remaining dry. If a few isolated storms can develop the Theta-E difference is high across the area and the environment would support the potential for strong down burst winds if storms can develop. Storm motions will be slow so locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Weather risk for portions of central Missouri today for the gusty winds. This is a conditional on if the cap can weaken enough for a few isolate storms to develop today.

Lows tonight into Thursday morning will only cool into the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Overall Thursday will be very similar to today weather wise. The ridge of high pressure will remain in place and highs in the middle 90s to around 100 will occur with heat index values around 100 to near 110. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop again during the morning and afternoon hours, mainly west of Highway 65. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm across portions of central Missouri again Thursday afternoon/early evening. Coverage will again be limited with most locations likely remaining dry. If a storm can develop, there is the potential for a strong storm with gusty winds the main risk. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk for potential for central MO on Thursday.

The upper level ridge of high pressure remains in place across the area into this weekend. The hot conditions will continue with highs in the middle 90s to around 100 degree, with lows only cooling into the middle 70s to the lower 80s each day. The area will remain mainly dry Friday into the weekend.

The ensemble model members are showing the ridge shifting back to the west some early next week, with the upper level jet shifting a little further south. This will bring shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%) back to portions of the area early next week. There is still question on just how far south and west this will occur as the upper level ridge may just push slightly back to the west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area today through tonight. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur at this morning and this afternoon. There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm across portions of central Missouri this afternoon/early this evening, this activity is expected to remain northwest of the TAF sites and coverage will be limited with most locations likely remaining dry.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058- 066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ070-071-081>083- 090>092-095>098-102>106.