textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today with wind chills in the single digits this morning. Afternoon highs remaining in the 30s for most locations.

- Elevated to Significant Fire Weather conditions on Tuesday with gusty southwest winds up to 35 mph and humidity in the 20-30% range.

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday through the rest of the week. There is a 40-60% chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show northwest flow aloft over the area. Low level cold air advection continues under northwest winds. Surface high pressure over the Northern Plains is advecting in a dry airmass as the 00z KSGF sounding measured a 0.11in PW value. Surface dewpoints upstream were in the low single digits. Skies were clear over the area and temps have dropped into the teens and low 20s. Wind chills were already in the single digits in many locations.

Cold Today: The surface high pressure axis will slide through the area today. Skies will be clear and winds will be lighter however cold air aloft will keep high temps in the 30s across most of the area with a few low 40s southwest of Springfield. The airmass will be dry with afternoon RH values dropping below 25% in many areas however the lighter winds will keep the fire danger limited today (conducive to fire starts but spreads will be slower).

Elevated to Significant Fire Danger Tuesday: Surface high pressure shifts southeast of the region Tuesday and surface winds turn southwesterly. Latest HREF guidance depicts a 45kt mean 850mb jet over the area with warm air advection occuring. Past events and local studies suggest that blended model guidance can be too high on dewpoints/RH in departing surface high regimes. Therefore we have lowered dewpoints and when combined with high temps approaching 60, this produces low humidity potential (20-30%). The area will be out ahead of a front and given the higher winds aloft, we are seeing the signal for surface wind gusts of 30-35mph with even sustained winds around 20 mph. The combined low humidity/gusty wind combo will create elevated to significant fire danger across a large part of the area and the SPC elevated fire outlook has now increased over the area. The limiting factor/uncertainty is cloud cover. A strong upper level jet will be overspreading the area and the latest HREF suggests mean high cloud cover at about 40-70%. This amount of cloud cover could limit the amount of mixing/gusty winds to some extent. This is further seen in HREF joint probabilities (humidity less than 30%/wind speeds over 15mph) being less than 50 percent. If confidence in humidity and wind gusts increase, we will need to consider either a Fire Weather Watch or go straight to a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Above Average Temps and Rain Chances: Westerly flow at 850mb will allow for highs on Wednesday reaching the 50s and 60s again with the warmest temps southwest of Springfield. A weak wind shift/front looks to move through late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with lighter winds. Ensembles continue to suggest a shortwave will drop down into the central plains Wednesday night, sending another front into the area. Moisture quality continues to be the main question with this system as it drops down from the northwest. The latest NBM guidance suggests only a 30-50% chance of rainfall amounts greater than 0.10in with higher probs southeast of the region. The airmass behind this system does not look very cold with southwest low level flow setting right back in with highs remaining above average.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire 18Z TAF period. Main aviation concern is increasing winds and LLWS after 09Z. Beforehand, winds will trend to light and variable as a high pressure system moves through. After 09Z, winds will become gusty out of the southwest at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30-35 kts at times. Due to the low-level jet, LLWS will increase after 09Z, peaking at 45-55 kts between 12-16Z, diminishing by the end of the TAF period.

Otherwise, expect clear skies, with scattered high clouds moving into the region after 04-06Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.