textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog will be possible tonight...especially over the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area. Fog may be dense (visibility <1/4 mi) in parts of central Missouri.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms move across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Current conditions and synoptic overview: An upper low was pushing east out of Iowa into the upper Great Lakes region, while a secondary low continues to spin along the west coast of southern California. A surface warm front lifted through the area earlier this morning and a trailing cold front was starting to push east over the western CWA. Temperatures were ranging from the low to mid 70s across the area ahead of the cold front.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: The cold front will continue to shift east across the remainder of the area this afternoon into the early evening. Temperatures ahead of the front will continue into the mid to upper 70s...possibly even 80 degrees which may approach or break record highs for today. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will become northwesterly behind the front, but should diminish quickly this evening. CAMS and global models are showing signs for fog development, especially over the eastern 2/3 of the CWA late tonight and have continued that trend from previous forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Widespread rain Wednesday night through Friday: The upper low off the California coast will begin to edge eastward as a secondary low begins to push into the west coast. The first low will start to become more of an open wave as it shifts east over Baja, northern Mexico and Arizona on Wednesday. Gulf moisture will start to increase ahead of the low by late Wednesday over the area. By Wednesday night, ensemble data is showing PW's ranging from 1.3 to 1.5" Wednesday night through about midday Friday which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Synoptic scale lifting will occur as energy from the upper wave lifts northeast into the area during this time frame and will combine with weak instability for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Present indications are for widespread 1.5" to 2.3" of rainfall from Wednesday night through Friday before the upper wave shifts out of the area and precipitation ends on Friday night. The several rounds of heavy rain may lead to some localized flooding over the area...especially in locations with that receive repeat heavy rain.

After a mainly dry Saturday and Sunday, the secondary upper low will begin to lift into the area early next week. There are still some timing issues with the models, so exact time is still some lower confidence in the exact timing of the next round of precipitation, but it appears this system may also bring the potential of some heavy rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Largely VFR conditions with light and variable winds for most of the TAF period. Signal for fog development in central Missouri and spreading southwest continues, especially in the 11Z-15Z timeframe.

KSGF is anticipated to be right on the southernmost edge of the dense fog as it spreads south, with ~60% chance of going below 3SM and ~50% that the terminal drops below 1SM visibility. Given these probabilities, opted for a prevailing MVFR group and a TEMPO for LIFR conditions.

KJLN is far enough west that conditions should remain VFR through the TAF period, though some shallow fog may develop. Opted for IFR at KBBG knowing the propensity for fog development given its location.

CLIMATE

Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the 55-59 degree range. Average low temps for middle November are in the 34-36 degree range.

Tuesday November 18:

Record High Temperatures: Forecast:

KSGF: 78/1930 76 KJLN: 76/1999 75 KVIH: 74/1981 74 KUNO: 74/2017 80

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

November 20: Forecast: KUNO: 52/2007 55

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.