textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday as heat index values warm to around 100 to 105 degrees today and Saturday. Little nighttime relief with lows in the 70s. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours today. Coverage/probability is less than 30 percent and most locations should remain dry.

- Scattered showers and storms may push south into portions of the area, mainly along and north of Highway 54, late tonight into Saturday morning. Additional scattered storms will be possible across the area Satruday afternoon and evening. Another round of storms will then be possible across portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- There is the potential for a few strong storms with gusty winds as the main risk with the scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening and again with the rounds of storms Saturday night.

- Additional storm chances (20-50%) will be possible across the area at times from Sunday into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The upper level ridge remains over the region with the upper level high centered to the east of the area. Overall today will be very similar to yesterday weather wise, as highs warm into the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Instability will increase and the cap will weaken today with peak heating. A few isolated storms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening hours. Coverage will again remain limited as lift will be weak, so overall most locations should remain dry. Shear and storm motions will remain weak so if any storm can develop it will not move much or last very along overall. Some gusty winds could be possible with a few of the storms as Theta-E difference increase this afternoon, but the overall severe risk will be low today.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across portions of Nebraska into Iowa and develop into a complex of storms. These storms will move more easterly at first but as a cold pool develops an outflow should also push south across northern Missouri towards the area tonight into Saturday morning. As the outflow moves south across towards mid Missouri, showers and storms will likely develop behind the outflow as it moves south towards the area tonight into Saturday morning. A cap will develop across much of the area tonight, but some uncapped instability will likely develop as far south as Highway 54 tonight into Saturday morning. This activity should be weakening as it moves into the area as instability will be weakening and a cap strengthening along with weaker shear over the area. Therefore, any showers and storms should dissipate fairly quickly as they move south into the area and south of Highway 54 into the more capped air mass and the weaker shear late tonight into Saturday morning.

The outflow will likely continue to move into the area Saturday morning and may stall across the area Saturday afternoon. Clouds will occur with the outflow, but should start to clear from north to south Saturday afternoon. Instability will increase and the cap weaken where the clouds clear Saturday afternoon and evening. With the outflow some scattered pulse type storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening and a few strong storms will be possible with gusty winds the risk.

Highs are expected to warm into the lower to middle 90s again on Saturday, with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees where the clouds clear and more sun occurs. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect today through Saturday for the entire area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The upper level ridge will start to move off to the east Saturday night into Sunday with and upper level northwest flow pattern setting up west of the ridge across the region. Additional storms are expected to develop across portions of central Kansas Saturday evening where uncapped MUCAPE will be in place. The MUCAPE will spread east into Missouri Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storms across Kansas will likely develop into a complex again and push southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning. The better upper level shear will be north of the area, but a few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible with this activity. The exact track of this activity will be dependent on exactly with the complex develops, if it develops further south and west it could miss much of the area, but if a complex of storms develop further north and east better chances for portions of the area being impacted would occur. Scattered afternoon/early evening storms will be possible again on Sunday.

Another upper level ridge will build towards the plains early next week and over the plain by the middle of next the week remaining west of the area. This will leave the area in a northwest upper level flow pattern much of next week. There will be the potential for thunderstorms to develop to the northwest of the area and move southeast towards the area during the overnight/morning hours. Confidences in exactly where storms will develop and track is still low at this time, but with the area being in a northwest flow upper level pattern portions of the area will have the potential of being impacted. Isolated/scattered afternoon/early evening storms could be possible each day next week too, especially if outflow boundaries form overnight convection can stall over the area.

Temperatures will return to closer to normal next week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values generally in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees each afternoon next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late this morning and afternoon. There could be a few isolated storms this afternoon/early evening but coverage will be limited with confidence in a TAF site being impacted very low. Southerly winds will occur this morning into early this evening, then light winds are expected to occur tonight

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.