textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Lows from the mid 30s to around 40 tonight. May have some patchy frost in the eastern Ozarks.

- Steady warming trend and a pattern change around midweek bringing potentially prolonged rain chances through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor and upper level analysis shows split flow continuing over the CONUS with the polar jet carving out a trough over the Great Lakes into the Ohio valley with a ridge axis from the 4 corners region into the Pacific northwest. A shortwave within the weaker subtropical flow was pushing east out of northern Mexico into west Texas. At the surface, the front has pushed south of Louisiana into the Gulf. High pressure was building into the region from the plains. Despite the sunshine, temperatures were in the low to mid 50s at midday across the area after lows in the low to upper 30s this morning.

Tonight: Surface high pressure will move overhead and we should see those wind gusts this afternoon diminish to light and variable. A clear sky is expected with temperatures dropping back into the 30s for lows. Most of the area should see upper 30s for lows, with sections of the eastern Ozarks in the mid 30s. Wouldn't be surprised for some patchy frost, but probably not enough to warrant a frost advisory again tonight.

Monday: With northwest flow continuing aloft and shortwave energy diving southeast out of Minnesota into the Great Lakes, a secondary surface cold front will push through the area. We should still rise into the mid 60s in the north to the low 70s in the south.

Monday night: A fairly strong but narrow band of mid level frontogenetic forcing sets up from the northern plains into the upper and mid Mississippi valley from northwest to southeast. This band has been slowly shifting northward with progressive model runs with the best lifting from western Iowa into northeast MO. We have some fairly low pops all the way down into the far northern reaches of our CWA, but most likely the precipitation will remain north of the area with this event. All of the HREF members are keeping the precipitation north of the CWA. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the south. Note: if you have travel plans into northern MO or Iowa, the banded precipitation will be in cool enough temperatures for accumulating snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The banded precipitation mentioned above will likely continue into Tuesday but to our north. The surface ridge will shift east of the area on Tuesday and we'll see a return to low level southerly flow. A southern stream shortwave will push across the southern plains while the northern stream shows a trough pushing out of the Pacific northwest into the northern Rockies. Temperatures should range from near 60 in the northeast CWA to low 70s in the southwest.

By the middle of the week, the northern stream shortwave and the southern stream wave will try to phase together over the plains. Will see stronger low level warm and moisture advection on the back side of the ridge and with the approaching shortwave/front to the west. Wind gusts over the western half of the CWA may exceed 30 mph during the day. Highs should warm into the low to mid 70s across the area.

Unsettled period Wednesday night into the upcoming weekend: the main upper wave will lift into the Great Lakes region with a front becoming stationary to our northwest or bisecting the area in our northwest CWA. Broad southwest flow aloft will be over the area all the way from the Pacific south of a low moving into southern California. At the same time, strong low level southerly flow from the Gulf will persist into the area which will significantly increase the moisture over the area. The best chances for precipitation will likely be to our west and over our western CWA until the upper trough begins to eject to the east and the front begins to push east into the area. There are still timing differences with the above, so a broad timeframe of precipitation chances exist from Wednesday night through the weekend. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s each day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions expected. Clear skies, light and variable winds, clear visibility.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.