textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-50% chances of isolated to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms, and again Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds to 55 mph and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms. Most stay dry.

- Rain chances increase to 40-60% Thursday through Saturday.

- Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, returning into the 90s midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis show a compact upper level low over northern Arkansas. Afternoon temps in the 80s and dews in the 60s have created an environment of ML CAPEs approaching 2000j/kg. Convective temps in the low 80s on the morning sounding have been reached and the cumulus field has since blossomed with isolated showers and storms developing over the area to the north of the upper low.

Afternoon Thunderstorm Chances: Highest chances for storms this afternoon are currently north and east of Springfield however as the low pivots east we could see storms move further south and west. Looking at the pulse severe potential, the main limiting factor seems to be weak 0-3km theta e diffs, however like previous days, we could still see a few stronger cells producing downburst winds around 50mph, lightning and brief heavy rainfall as storm motions will be slow and erratic. Many locations will stay dry. Storm coverage will likely decrease after sunset given loss of daytime heating and the exit of the upper low. There is a low chance for some patchy fog overnight however not seeing a signal for anything dense or overly widespread at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday: The upper low will continue to slide southeast of the area however there could remain enough proximity to allow for isolated afternoon storms across south central Missouri. A few CAMS in the HREF suggest this potential. Many areas will remain dry with highs in the 80s. Ensembles suggest that the upper low will continue to slowly move even further away on Wednesday. Rain chances look to be less than 20 percent. Warmer air will begin to advect in with highs in the 80s however a few locations west of Springfield may reach 90.

Thursday through Sunday: Ensembles continue to suggest that an upper ridge will attempt to build across the western US however trends suggest it may take a little longer to become fully established. Therefore, pieces of energy will attempt to move into the area beginning Thursday night and continuing off and on into the weekend. Increasing moisture and lift will allow for rain chances to increase across the area however details remain uncertain. The WPC continues to highlight a marginal risk for excessive rainfall during this time frame. Latest NBM suggests about a 30% chance of precip amounts over 1 inch with the highest probs currently north of the area. Temps look to be the warmest on Thursday ahead of the next system with the NBM suggesting a medium to high potential in highs reaching the low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The Ozarks are under the influence of a slow moving upper level trough that is producing showers and storms moving from the north-northeast to the south-southwest across the region. This, back side, activity will produce isolated showers and a storm or two through sunset with activity dropping off quickly afterwards.

Otherwise, surface winds will be generally light and variable with a northerly component through the next 24 hours with VFR flight conditions.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.