textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (30-60%) with a frontal passage through this evening and tonight. Additional rainfall amounts around a few tenths of an inch.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s. The coolest day will be on Friday. Expect gusty northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph behind the frontal passage through Friday evening.

- Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Today-Tonight: The upper level trough is beginning to dig out of the Northern Plains this afternoon, with an associated low lifting through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. A strong cold front will sweep through the region as the trough translates towards the Ohio Valley.

A warm and rather humid airmass for mid-October is in place across the area early this afternoon. Scattered showers (30-60% chances) continue to advect through the warm sector this afternoon, with thunder limited by the lack of forcing. The Flood Watch was cancelled early given the scattered coverage and less favorable conditions for excessive rainfall this afternoon. Expect this activity to continue to move through the area ahead of the frontal passage that is surging south. As the front passes through, better forcing may support a few heavier downpours and isolated thunderstorms. At this time, it does not appear any stronger thunderstorms will occur in this environment. The front continues to push southeast through the area into this evening and tonight, with gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph behind the passage. Temperatures will quickly begin to cooldown, with lows in the 40s by Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts will be limited to a few tenths of an inch through tonight. This will bring storm total rainfall amounts to 0.5 to 2 inches for several locations, with localized corridors of 2 to 4 inches over the last 36 hours. This has been a beneficial rainfall across the area given the ongoing drought conditions.

Friday: Some breaks in the clouds through Friday morning before additional low-level clouds overspread the area into Friday afternoon. Low chances (10%) exist for light sprinkles with wraparound moisture being squeezed out of the atmosphere as high pressure builds towards the area. Otherwise, a rather chilly Friday is in the forecast as gusty northwest winds persist with highs in the 50s. It is plausible that some locations struggle to break 50 on Friday afternoon. Winds will gradually taper off into Friday night, though clouds will remain scattered to broken in coverage. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning fall into the middle 30s to lower 40s. The coldest temperatures will be focused across the eastern Ozarks. However, confidence is relatively low for frost into Saturday morning given the lingering winds and cloud cover. Any frost will be patchy in nature, and confined to sheltered areas and valleys.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Saturday-Sunday: High pressure settles over the region into Saturday, with clouds clearing the area. Expect highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday afternoon, with light northeast winds. Clear skies and calm winds set the stage for another chilly night, including increasing chances for areas of frost. The latest guidance suggests probabilities of frost formation (< 35 degrees as a proxy) have increased to 60-90% in areas, especially across the eastern Ozarks. It is even reasonable to expect the much lower elevations and protected areas out east will fall below freezing. It is fairly common for this area to see temperatures 5+ degrees below surrounding observations. Elsewhere, patchy frost remains in the cards for Sunday morning and potential headlines will be assessed with future forecast updates. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from October 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from October 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. Highs a bit warmer into Sunday, reaching into the middle to upper 60s.

Early Next Week: A ridge gradually amplifies over the central CONUS into early/mid next week, supporting a return of above normal temperatures. This will be characterized by high temperatures back into the middle to upper 70s, to even lower 80s by mid- week. This aligns with the latest CPC forecasts, depicting 70-80% chances for above normal temperatures into mid to late next week. Meanwhile, any rain chances remain low (< 10%) through early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A system continues to support scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area through tonight. Periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity, with reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles and ceilings around 900 to 2500 feet at times. Widespread reduced ceilings along a frontal passage late this afternoon and evening. Winds will turn from southwest this afternoon to west-northwest with the front. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots persist behind the frontal passage through Friday. A break in the clouds Friday morning before additional low-level clouds advect into the area Friday afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.