textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms could start between 3-6pm on Friday. There will be two rounds of severe weather with supercells as the first round and a QLCS (line of storms) threat expected for the second round. Second round timing is around 8-11pm.

- Tornado threat is the greatest over far SW MO but tornadoes are possible for the whole area. Damaging wind threat up to 70 mph and 2-3" hail are all possible.

- Localized flash flooding will occur on Friday night under the strongest storms. A few storms could have rain rates of 1-2"/hr which would cause flooding with our 1-2" flash flood guidance across the area.

- Another system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms the middle of next week with Tuesday outlooked by SPC.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1225 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Lowered visibilities and overcast skies have been present for most of the day. Visibilities have started to improve but cirrus from the storms in AR mixed with altocumulus from the stationary front will keep us cloudy for most of today. Clouds do begin to break up late this evening leaving us with partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight. The low-level jet gets cranking once again overnight and combined with the stationary front, will bring us a 30-50% chance for thunderstorms tonight. Only general thunder is outlooked for tonight and the better environment for storms will be over in eastern KS. Therefore, no widespread severe weather is expected tonight, but there could be a few rumbles of thunder.

We will be expecting severe weather on Friday. Highs will be in the 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy during the day and southerly winds will be gusting up to 35 mph by the late morning hours. The storm mode tomorrow will be mixed mode with supercells kicking off our severe weather in the late afternoon and a QLCS moving through closer to 10pm. We have pushed back the timing just a tad as models are coming in a bit later than yesterday. We are also differentiating between round 1 and round 2 in this forecast package and listing uncertainties. Timing is a bit still uncertain as well since this is all based on the dry line over in central OK.

Mixed modes can lead to uncertainties in the forecast especially if there are two rounds of storms like what's expected tomorrow. Sometimes the supercells congeal and cut the energy off from each other even in a favorable environment. Then, they eat up all the instability and shear and leave a more stable environment for the next round of storms to move through. If that occurred, the QLCS would be on the lower-end of the severe threat. Round 1 could impact Round 2, and that's something to be mindful of going forward as there could be a break between the rounds or they could catch up to each other. Though, even with the storm mode uncertainties, we will still have a favorable environment for severe weather to occur tomorrow afternoon/evening. All modes of severe weather are possible as we have abundant SRH (~400 m2/s2) and shear (~40 kts) and MLCAPE (~1500 J/kg) with 700-500mb lapse rates at 7-7.5 C/km based on model soundings. Though, these values are from a model sounding over Barry co where the most favorable environment for tornadoes will be. We'll have to watch for surface winds to see if they become more favorable for tornado development as they're currently forecast to be 180 degrees directly out of the south. A southeast/southwest flow would be more favorable, but all hazards are still expected as the helicity, shear, and instability will be enough to bring us severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has nudged the Enhanced Risk (3/5) for severe weather a bit further east and now includes Greene, Webster, Polk, and most of Hickory county. The tornado outlook was upgraded a bit and is most favorable over far SW MO with supercell tornadoes more likely over that area, but not zero everywhere else as a QLCS can still bring a spin-up tornado threat. The hail outlook was also upgraded and the greatest threat for 3" hail will occur west of Highway 65 (where the supercells are more likely to occur) and areas east of Highway 65 are still outlooked for hail up to 2". The damaging wind outlook was pulled back a little further west, but we are still messaging up to 70 mph winds.

Another threat for Friday night is flooding. We have already received a few reports today of road closures and low-water crossings flooded just from the storms yesterday. Flash flood guidance is 1-2" and the soils are moist. Tomorrow's flood threat will be more rain rate driven since the event is expected to move through quicker than the storms we saw yesterday which means less training of storms. Flooding will occur under the strongest storms and that's why it will be less widespread. WPC forecasts storms have potential to reach 1-2"/hr rain rates. Flash flooding will be more localized and will peak overnight. Just a reminder to turn around don't drown especially driving at night!

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The cold front will push off to the east early on Saturday. There could be some lingering showers and maybe a rumble of thunder Saturday morning before the system moves off to the east. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday and the 60s on the Sunday with mostly dry conditions after any lingering rainfall ends Saturday morning.

The front will lift back to the north on Monday there could be a few showers and storms on the front but coverage will be limited. Highs will return to the 70s early next week. Another low pressure system will move across the desert southwest with a shortwave moving through the Central Plains. Moisture will increase going into the start of next week and SPC has outlooked Tuesday for a 15% risk of severe weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Fog and low ceilings are still occurring this morning with the TAF sites in MVFR, IFR, LIFR levels and visibilities down to 1 SM at times. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to improve in the next couple of hours and all sites should return to VFR for the rest of the day. Thunderstorm chances increase to 30% this evening near 03z for JLN and SGF. Have included a PROB30 to account for this activity until 09z. Rain tapers off near sunrise on Friday and southerly winds will gust up to 30 knots by late morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.