textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through Thursday with some records approached (see Climate section).

- Windy conditions this morning. The strongest gusts may reach 20 to 30 mph but will drop off by lunch time

- Elevated to significant fire weather conditions, as a warm and dry air mass combines with gusty winds today and Thursday. - Rain chances Friday night into Saturday (30-50%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1244 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Looking at the IR Satellite image early this morning showed a deep surface low over the northern plains with a cold front stretching south from Northeastern South Dakota to northeastern Missouri ands then back west into the southern Oklahoma. In advance of the front the surface pressure gradient was helping to produce southerly winds with gusts from 20 to 30 mph. As the front moves east through this morning, the pressure gradient will weaken behind it which will allow the winds gradually weakening. Temperatures will not cool much behind the front as afternoon highs will climb into the upper 60s to middle 70.

What will occur under clearing skies is increasingly dry air that will move into the region in the wake of the front. This will allow for increasing fire weather potential with relative humidity values this afternoon falling into the 15 to 25 percent range. This combination of clear skies, unseasonably warm (possibly near record) temperatures, and dry air will produce elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will be the only limiting factor for rapid fire spread, however, atmospheric conditions will be conducive for fire starts. Some local areas of significant fire concern may occur but should be limited.

Warm air will remain in place tonight with overnight lows only falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s under clear skies.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Lee cyclogenesis will enhance a surface low through Thursday morning that will then move across the plains and into northern Missouri by midday Thursday. A cold front will approach the Ozarks with increasing surface winds adding to the fire weather conditions that will already be in place from today. This combination will allow for the potential of the regions first Red Flag Warning day of the 2026 spring fire weather season.

The dry air mass in place on Thursday will keep relative humidity values again from 15 to 25%. The surface low pressure will allow for southerly winds increasing and becoming gusty with gusts of 25 to 35 mph along with afternoon highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s once again.

The front will move east through the area Thursday, but cooler air lag until the passage of a secondary cold front late Thursday afternoon. Winds will become more westerly behind the front Thursday afternoon. Cooler air will filter into the region Thursday night allowing for overnight lows more appropriate for middle to late February in the upper 20s to low 30s.

With the lingering dry air over the Ozarks, clear skies will allow afternoon highs on Friday to climb into the 50s despite the cold start. Thanks to the slightly cooler conditions, afternoon relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 35% range. Winds will be much lighter generally less than 10mph with occasional gusts less than 20mph. Some areas of elevated fire concern may occur, but significant Red Flag conditions should not be reached.

Synoptic models and ensemble try to hint at a weak system moving across the plains with int the southwesterly upper level flow that would bring a limited chance for some precipitation to the area by Friday night, If enough moisture can make it into the region to overcome the dry air in place over the area, some light showers would be possible, 30-50%, but trends have been downward and if rain does occur, most locations that receive rain would see a tenth of an inch or less. A cooler air mass will be in place Friday night int5 Saturday morning and the temperature profile could support a light snow or a rain light snow mix if precipitation does materialize.

Cooler conditions will occur this weekend into early next week, highs in the 40s lows in the 20s and teens behind the system. An upper level ridge then appears to build over the region by the middle of next weekend with a potential for yet another warming trend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. That said, main aviation concern will be increasing southwesterly winds after 10Z with a fropa. The fropa will also bring 40-45 kt LLWS to the area between 09-15Z as it moves through. Winds then increase to 15-20 kt sustained with gusts up to 25-35 kts at times toward the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, skies should be mostly clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A front will move east across the region this morning. A warmer air mass will remain in place behind the front, but a much drier air mass will advect into the region. Mostly sunny skies will occur today with highs warming into the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Morning gusty winds will become lighter across the area through today. Mixing will occur (mixing heights of 4500 to 5000ft) and allow RH values to drop to 15 to 25% this afternoon. Sustained winds will be 5 to 10mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph with the strongest winds west of Highway 65. With the dry air mass in place, elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the area. Weather conditions are expected to fall just below Red Flag criteria as a result of the lighter winds.

The warm and dry air mass will remain in place on Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to the middle 70s again. Surface low pressure will move across the central Plains on Thursday. A frontal boundary will be east across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will start off out of the west Thursday morning and will become southwesterly then westerly behind the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will increase with winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 40mph, the strongest winds will be west of Highway 65. Mixing will again occur (around 5000ft) with RH falling into the 20 to 30% range. If slightly warmer conditions can occur it's possible RH values could drop to as low as 15% Thursday afternoon. These conditions will approach Red Flag Warning criteria across the western portions of the area.

Lingering dry conditions will remain in place into Friday though temperatures will be cooler in the 50s for highs. This will limit RH values in the 25 to 35% ranges and winds will be light as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KJLN: 78/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 18: KSGF: 51/1971 KJLN: 58/1971 KUNO: 53/1971 KVIH: 50/2017

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.