textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend continues today, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

- Northwesterly winds will become gusty behind the incoming cold front on Wednesday afternoon, gusting near 30 mph.

- Cooler conditions will occur late week into early next weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s expected Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Synoptic analysis showcases weak northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper level low pressure system situated over northern Texas, and an upper ridge continuing to build over the Rockies/Plains regions. Satellite imagery has depicted clear skies throughout the early morning hours as high pressure and a dry airmass dominates. Had to lower dewpoints this morning from the NBM guidance, as observations were coming in almost 10 degrees drier. These dry conditions will help mitigate any widespread fog from forming later this morning. Slightly "warmer" overnight temperatures have been observed compared to previous nights, with temperatures as of 1230AM showing a wide range in the upper 30s to mid 50s across the CWA. Expect temps to drop a few more degrees before sunrise for most, with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

The gradual warm-up will continue as the ridging builds, with high confidence in afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. This is backed by the NBM interquartile spread only having a 3-degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles. Did end up upping the highs by a degree or two for some locations, as the NBM has been coming in slightly cooler than observations, with most locations reaching at least 70.

For tonight, overnight lows are expected to remain in the upper 40s (eastern Ozarks) to low/mid 50s (warmer further west).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The aforementioned upper level low to our southwest will continue trekking eastward south of the area today into Wednesday morning. Guidance keeps any measurable precipitation/all impacts away from the area, however it should be noted that there's a chance (albeit very low - <10%) of some drizzle over far southwest MO very early Wednesday morning before sunrise. Guidance isn't quite picking up on this yet (hence the very low probabilities), however saturated air (RH > 85%) combined with upward omega, upslope flow, and a lack of cloud ice would suggest this to at least be possible. Again, it's a very localized area, with the better likelihood being all precipitation remaining south of the CWA.

The warming trend continues through midweek, with highs in the 70s on Tuesday and the 60s on Wednesday.

Additionally on Wednesday, an upper level shortwave trough will pivot southeast through the Plains towards the region, with an associated surface cold front progged to sweep through the area. Guidance now keeps any precipitation chances out of our area, as the better forcing lies east of Missouri over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The main impacts this system will bring to the area will be gusty winds up to 20-30mph (due to the tight pressure gradient), and cooler air behind the front.

This will result in temperatures dropping a few degrees below normal to finish out the week, with highs in the 50s on Thursday and the mid 40s to low 50s Friday. Friday night/Saturday morning will be the chilliest night in the forecast period, with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 20s east of Highway 65, and the upper 20s to low 30s west of the highway.

The next chance of precipitation will be towards the end of next weekend as another upper level shortwave pushes towards the region. With it being so far out, current probabilities are only 20-30%, however we'll continue monitoring how this system plays out this week to see if we can get a better idea on what to expect.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 453 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for much of the forecast period. There is a chance for some fog to lower visibilities below 3 miles at KJLN after 11Z Wednesday morning, however confidence was too low to include in this TAF issuance. We'll continue monitoring the need to add it to future forecasts. Otherwise, southwesterly surface winds will remain generally below 10kts through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.