textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming back into the 70s this week and into the weekend.

- Unsettled conditions with daily rain chances Thursday through early next week.

- Heavy rain and the potential for strong to severe weather will move into the area by early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an exiting trough over New England in the northern stream and also a closed low dropping southeast out of British Columbia into Alberta. There was shortwave energy over west Texas embedded within the weaker southern stream flow. Temperatures at midday were ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s from northeast to southwest.

Tonight - Wednesday night: The upper low over western Alberta will track east-southeast and into the northern plains and eventually to the upper Great Lakes region by Thursday morning. At the surface, we'll see southerly winds increase in the lower levels bringing some warm air advection over the region. Temperatures tonight will dip into the low 40s in the east to near 50 in the west. Highs on Wednesday should return to the mid 70s for most locations with lows on Wednesday night from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

While we do have some low pops in our far northern CWA Thursday and Thursday night, the front is expected to remain north of our area with upper level flow not supporting much further southward movement. So most of the area will remain dry through at least Thursday night.

A large upper level closed low is expected to move inland over California on Friday and a broad area of southwest flow will develop south of the low into the central and southern plains. Gulf moisture will be on the increase with a large area of low level flow over the region. The front may be positioned over the area during the day Friday before lifting to the north Friday night. NOrthern portions of the CWA will have the best chances for shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday and Friday evening prior to the front lifting northward. Heavy rain will be possible.

There may be a lull in the activity for most of the area then until later in the day Sunday and then into early next week. The upper level system will begin to lift out of the west and may come in several waves lingering into late Tuesday. Better instability and higher moisture will lead to stronger to possible severe storms Monday and Tuesday in addition to the potential of heavy rain and possibly excessive rainfall should training of storms occur.

Current SPC/WPC Outlooks -

Severe Weather Outlook: SPC 15% risk for Monday.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook: WPC Marginal risk on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

For the 18z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the period with a dry air mass in place. Some gusty winds will be possible out of the southeast up to 25 kts behind a departing high pressure system and ahead of low pressure.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.