textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- After cool conditions today, temperatures warm to above average late this week and through the weekend.

- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will continue into the middle of February. The precipitation outlook also favors above-average precipitation through this period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 102 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level shortwave trough was pivoting over the Plains early this morning with an amplified ridge axis set up over the western CONUS. Meanwhile, a low-level stratus deck was blanketing much of Missouri and gradually creeping to the south and east.

Unseasonably Cool and Dry Today:

Northerly winds will reinforce cold air advection across the region and keep temperatures unseasonably cool today. Look for highs in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Forecast soundings depict a more shallow moist layer for locations east of Highway 65 and therefore break up the status out there this afternoon. These clearer skies will allow for more efficient radiational cooling, and we wouldn't be surprised to see some overnight lows in the teens tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 102 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Warm through the Long Term Forecast Period:

Global models show the aforementioned trough axis shifting east on Thursday, leaving southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri on the eastern periphery of the upper- level ridge by Friday. This process will allow a warmer airmass to advect into the region, and we'll see temperatures climb as a result. Saturday temperatures may be be a touch cooler than Friday as a weak shortwave impulse transits the Upper Midwest, though they will still remain above average. Ensemble clusters agree on this much, at least, though slight variances in the latitudinal positioning of the longwave trough axis are producing a moderate amount of uncertainty in the exact degree of warming our area will experience late this weekend into early next week. For what it's worth, the NBM deterministic output has trended toward the warmer GEFS solution. Should this scenario pan out, high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees will be achievable across far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas Sunday into early next week. The 25th percentile temperatures, meanwhile, are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Regardless, there is high confidence in above-average temperatures occurring this weekend into at least early next week. These temperatures will accelerate the melting of any remaining snowpack.

Dry through the Long Term Forecast Period:

With the Missouri Ozarks on the eastern edge of the ridge, northwest flow aloft will tend to stunt precipitation chances through the forecast period. In fact, NBM precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through Monday. LREF grand ensemble clusters begin to diverge more significantly in their depiction of the 500 mb height pattern by Tuesday, however. They do generally agree in breaking down the upper-level ridge around this time, but ensemble solutions vary greatly in how they handle the (potentially) digging trough across the Pacific. This pattern shift will at least open the door to the return of rain chances for the region, though, and details will be better assessed in future forecast packages.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A low-level stratus deck is blanketing much of southern and western Missouri early this morning, producing MVFR or near-MVFR ceilings. This stratus is expected to stick around through the morning before at least partially lifting across eastern Missouri this afternoon.

Winds will prevail out of the north between 5 to 10 kt until around 06Z when they begin to shift to the southwest.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.