textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM today to 6 PM Sunday. Expected snowfall is 8-13 inches across the area.

- Uncertainty remains in the potential upper-end amounts depending on the system's exact track and the potential of sleet to occur Saturday afternoon near the MO/AR border.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight through 12 PM Monday. Single digit lows (above and below zero) and wind chills below -10 F will be likely each morning this weekend. Single digit highs possible Saturday.

- Behind the winter storm, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s through Thursday along with lows in the single digits to teens will extend the time it takes for any snow on the ground to clear.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Fire Weather: Today will start out breezy with northeasterly winds gusting up to 30 mph especially for areas across eastern KS and far western MO as the low pressure system pushes east. There will be elevated fire weather conditions today ahead of our snow storm due to dry air and gusty winds. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the 20-30% range with 20ft winds gusting to 15-20 mph. We are just shy of Red Flag Warning criteria, but burning is still discouraged.

Winds and Temperatures: Northeasterly winds are currently gusting to 25 mph early this morning across the area with high clouds overhead. Clouds will begin to increase through the day and high temperatures will occur first thing this morning. Most of the area is sitting in the mid to upper 20s and that is unfortunately most likely going to be the warmest it'll get today. Temperatures are expected to drop through the day with afternoon temperatures forecast to be in the teens with wind chills in the single digits. Winds start to diminish later this evening once the cold front has completely moved through.

Winter Weather: A Cold Weather Advisory is still in effect for the entire area from 12AM Saturday to 12PM Monday for minimum wind chills around -10 to -20F each morning. The Winter Storm Warning is also still in effect for 6PM tonight to 6PM Sunday with 8 to 13 inches of snow expected across the area with the higher totals occurring over southern MO.

We are close enough to the start time with this event for high- res models to start to paint a better picture of how this storm will all unfold. These models have started to pick up on some snow banding especially near the MO/AR border. Snowfall totals continue to increase in those areas as we try to nail down where these bands of snow will set up. There are a couple of wrinkles in the forecast as far as start time for the snow and precipitation types. Latest model soundings show quite a bit of dry air over us this evening and that'll be tough for snow to overcome in the beginning until we completely wet-bulb. This may push back start times tonight to be a few hours after the start time of the Winter Storm Warning. We have decided to leave the start time the same for this forecast package due to the fact that a few models show the possibility of moisture overcoming the dry air and snow starting in our KS counties around 9PM tonight. We want to leave a bit of wiggle room in case the storm begins to creep in before midnight even though most of the impactful snow will occur overnight Friday into Saturday. The timing of the heavier snow falling overnight will be great for snowfall accumulations.

Snowfall is expected to linger into the late morning hours on Saturday and start to taper off by the early afternoon. There appears to still be a lull in between the two rounds of snow on Saturday afternoon. Though, the lull may not mean that everyone will remain dry during this break in preicp. Model soundings have still shown a signal for a brief period of sleet occurring Saturday afternoon for areas mostly south of I-44. There are a few factors in play here that will determine if that area sees mixed precip on Saturday. First, the warm nose has to be present for this to occur, there has to be a brief break in the cloud ice, and the air has to be dry, but not too dry otherwise no precip will make it to the surface. There is a chance that this precip could fall as freezing drizzle instead, either way, the precip would be impactful and will cause hazardous road conditions. Any sleet that does fall, will impact snowfall amounts as well and will lower them just slightly. There's only a few models showing sleet occurring but it's still worth mentioning due to the impacts it could have on anyone traveling. The second round of moderate to heavy snow moves in late Saturday into Sunday morning. Snow will exit west to east Sunday afternoon.

Probabilistic snowfall amounts: >= 6": 80-90% >= 8": 60-80% >= 12": 30-40%

Unusual combined snow/cold threat considerations: Special consideration should be given to both cold and snow individually, but also when combined. If individuals become stranded during the event, they will be exposed to dangerously cold conditions. We are messaging: "Motorists should avoid traveling but will need to plan for cold weather survival in the event they become stranded."

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 247 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Snow will linger for the beginning of next week as cold temperatures stick around through the weekend. Daytime highs only reach the teens across the area with Monday and Tuesday creeping into the 20s and 30s. Then, another shot of cold air arrives on Thursday.

Wind Chills: As previously mentioned, -10 to -20F wind chills will occur each morning from Saturday through Monday. These temperatures have the potential to get even colder due to the snowpack on the ground. Monday morning will be the coldest with widespread wind chill values in the -15 to -20 range which may warrant an Extreme Cold Watch that gets converted to an Extreme Cold Warning, if needed. We definitely can't rule out issuing that product especially with snow on the ground causing our temperatures to stay even cooler.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period with broken to overcast mid-level clouds over much of the region. Elevated northeast winds will be sustained between 12 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt through the afternoon.

Snow will begin to move into southern Missouri after 03Z this evening. There may be a brief period early Saturday morning where blowing snow significantly reduces visibility across extreme southwest Missouri. Snow looks to continue across southern Missouri through the end of the TAF period. MVFR to IFR ceilings will accompany this snow.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.