textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly east of Highway 65. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with large hail and a tornado being secondary hazards. Additional, non severe storms will develop late tonight south of Springfield.

- Hot and humid conditions continue to the south of a cold front on today with far southwest Missouri having the best chance (50%) of seeing heat index values near 105 again.

- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s elsewhere through the rest of the week. The next chance of rain (10-20%) arrives Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a compact shortwave trough moving southeast out of Nebraska and into Kansas and Missouri. A corridor of warm air aloft (capping) exists across most of the area ahead of a surface front. This front was moving into Missouri along a surface low in southeast Kansas. A warm front then stretched out east across southern Missouri. Clouds were beginning to clear out which is allowing that warm front to lift northeast towards Springfield. Temps varied across the area with 70s northeast of Springfield to the low to mid 90s southwest of Springfield. Gusty winds were occuring near and behind the warm front with lower dewpoints southwest of the warm front. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that the airmass remains capped with ML CAPE around 1500j/kg. 0-6km shear was in the 30-40kt range.

Hot Conditions: With additional heating, afternoon temps will push the upper 90s to around 100 along and southwest of a Joplin to Branson line. Temps will then gradually taper off to the northeast. Heat indicies around 100-105 will likely occur in the Heat Advisory area and no changes are planned before its expiration this evening.

Severe Storm Potential: As we progress through the afternoon, mid level height falls will begin to overspread the area and will help to force convective initiation along the main surface front across the eastern CWA. 12z HREF and REFS along with latest HRRR trends suggest that the highest potential for storm development will be east of Springfield after 3pm. The corridor from Rolla to Houston to Gainesville and east is most favored. Steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient bulk shear will promote severe storm development. Most guidance suggests storms will grow into one or two small clusters with damaging winds to 70mph the most likely hazard. Given the increased bulk shear, the forecast Large Hail Parameter of 4-6 would support a few instances of large hail to the size of golf balls, however most instances would be less than that. The storms that develop further north (closer to Rolla) would have the higher hail potential, especially if storms can remain isolated. Given the boundary in the area, there will be a low tornado potential however it would have to take a favorable boundary interaction for that to occur and confidence in that occuring is low.

Thunderstorms look to move out of the CWA after 8-9pm however a low level jet will develop overnight along the Missouri/Arkansas border. The forecast 850mb front will be across southern Missouri therefore scattered showers and storms are likely to develop along that boundary and then sag south into Arkansas. These storms are not forecast to be severe however a few could produce small hail/brief gusty winds before moving out. Rainfall amounts with the afternoon/evening and overnight storms will generally be one inch or less.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Hot Conditions: The area looks to remain in a northwest flow pattern through at least the weekend, and perhaps into early next week. A 850mb temp gradient looks to set up from southwest to northeast across the area therefore a decent surface temp gradient will also likely set up with the warmest temps west of Springfield. Highs in the mid/upper 90s are likely in these areas, especially locations where drought is increasing. Mean dewpoints continue to come in lower during the afternoons (middle/upper 60s) which should help with keeping heat indicies at or below 100. The NWS Heat Risk tool shows mainly moderate levels with some increase to major by the end of the weekend and next week, most likely due to the prolonged heat.

Rain Chances Saturday-Monday: Rain chances currently are 20 percent or less at times over the weekend into early next week. Ensembles have trended a little wetter at times though depending on timing of waves moving down the northwest flow aloft. If the ridge remains further west of the area then precip chances would be less and more confined west of the area. Confidence is low during this time frame and will need to pin down details a little more with future updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and storms are expected to develop east of the sites this afternoon and evening however have added prob30 groups to SGF and BBG for overnight storm potential. VFR conditions are generally expected for the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southeast at BBG and SGF to start the period then switching to the southwest and then west this afternoon and evening. Winds will then switch to the north tonight into Thursday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ093-101>105.