textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across portions of central Missouri.

- More widespread in nature showers and storms will move through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday. The is a Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms with this activity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show cyclonic flow around a low centered over Hudson Bay covering the northeastern 2/3 of the CONUS and continuing to bring northwestly flow to the area. A large low pressure system remains off the California coast with westerly subtropical jet flow south of the low across Mexico into the Gulf coastal states. A mid/upper level shortwave was dropping southeast out of the upper Mississippi valley into the Upper Great Lakes and western sections of the Ohio valley regions. At the surface, a cold front was dropping southeast into northern Missouri. Dewpoints have risen into the upper 40s to near 50 in the west and you can see the narrow low level moisture increase in the ALPW surface to 850mb polar orbiting satellite imagery. That being said, we have a fairly stout area of MU CIN over the area and visible satellite shows no cloud development.

Late this afternoon and tonight: previously mentioned cold front will likely stall out north of the CWA. CAMS are depicting most if not all convection remaining north of the area though we are keeping low pops in our northern CWA. With steep mid level lapse rates edging in here late in the day into this evening, elevated instability above around 700mb and increasing shear, if an isolated storm were to form, it may be capable of large hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. We are expecting most if not all of the area to remain dry however. Temperatures tonight will be quite a bit warmer than the past couple of nights with the low level southerly flow. We should have lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Monday-Monday night: Upper flow will begin to transition to more of a westerly flow as the upper low off the California coast begins to shift inland and upper jet energy shifts across the southwest U.S. and begins to phase with the northern stream cyclonic flow. The front will slowly begin to shift south into the area and we'll have some increasing afternoon instability enough for some low pops during the day in the northern half of the CWA. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Monday night as the front begins to push through the area and a low level jet sets up over the region. There may be enough shear and instability along with the fronal convergence for some strong to severe storms. Hail and thunderstorm wind gusts would be the main severe weather risks.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The frontal boundary will continue to push through the area on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms continuing. A few strong to severe storms will remain possible during the day on Tuesday with hail and damaging wind gusts remaining the main severe weather risks. With the front continuing to sink south of the area Tuesday night, the instability should also diminish by the early evening. The main upper trough will then swing through on Wednesday and may bring some additional rain to the area with fairly cool temperatures in the 50s for highs and upper 30s to low 40s for lows Wednesday night.

Behind the upper wave on Wednesday it generally looks to be dry into next weekend with temperatures returning to the 70s by Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A frontal boundary is expected to stall out north of the area this evening. While a few storms are expected north of the front, we should remain dry over the CWA and at the terminals through the period. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will be the main aviation concern with gusty south to southwesterly winds of 20 to 25 kts this afternoon and then gusts up to 28 to 30 kts starting on Monday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.