textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through Saturday.

- Near to above average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.

- Cold air settles in Friday night through Saturday night. Overnight wind chills in the teens to single digits are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The stratus deck that was blanketing southern Missouri this morning will continue to break up throughout the afternoon, though a few scattered clouds may linger. Despite the clearing, warm air advection looks to arrive too late to realize much actual heating today, and high temperatures will remain below average.

However, a passing mid-level shortwave impulse and increasing southwesterly winds will aid in warmer air advecting into the region by Tuesday. Afternoon highs look to top out in the mid to upper 50s. While point forecast soundings suggest relatively low mixing heights, the tightening surface pressure gradient will support occasional wind gusts between 25 to 30 mph.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Dry: The upper-level pattern will not be supportive of notable precipitation chances through the long term period; that is, global ensembles depict a longwave trough persisting across the eastern CONUS, keeping southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas in a dry northwest flow pattern through at least Sunday. Precipitation chances remain less than 10% through the long term forecast.

Cold Weekend: A passing shortwave through the northern Plains and Midwest will drag a surface cold front through the region Thursday night into early Friday that will usher in a much colder airmass this weekend. The good news is that southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas will be spared from the coldest air, which will be across the Midwest and northeastern U.S. A glance at ensemble clusters reveals two primary solutions. The "warmer" solution-- mainly dominated by ECMWF members--keeps the aforementioned trough slightly flatter, or farther northeast. To that end, the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails therefore keep any extreme cold signal northeast of our area. The colder solution is comprised mainly of GEFS and GEPS members which allow the trough to intrude farther southwest. Indeed, this disagreement in the models is manifested in the NBM's large (10+ degrees) interquartile spread in temperatures beyond Friday.

So what does this mean for actual temperatures? In the "warm" solution, low temperatures Friday night would generally be in the 20s with Saturday highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. In the cold solution, lows Friday night would generally be in the teens to single digits with Saturday highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Wind chills in the single digits are possible. Regardless, there is high confidence that temperatures will fall well below normal late Friday through Saturday--the question is simply how far below normal. For what it's worth, the trend in the guidance has been toward the warmer solution. Temperatures look to increase for Sunday as the cold airmass shifts northeast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Mostly clear with a few passing high clouds. Light southerly winds at the start of the period will increase and turn slightly southwesterly overnight, with gusts up to 25 kts possible after 16Z. Some low level wind shear may be present during the early morning hours, especially for SGF.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.