textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-40% chance for storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes.

- Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring.

- 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with potential for, yet low confidence in locations of, severe and flooding risks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

We're beginning the night with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds have picked up some speed since last night and are currently up to 10-15 mph. An MCV and associated convection is currently making its way across eastern Nebraska and Kansas. It is quickly losing steam as instability drops off and the nocturnal inversion sets in. It is expected to continue weakening as it begins to impact the SGF CWA in the next few hours.

Of course, the cloud cover, outflow boundaries, and overall impact on the environment of this early morning activity will likely have implications on the severe round of storms we are expecting later today. Though reinitiation along the trailing boundary is expected this afternoon, CAMs differ in both the timing and location of this development. Some models indicate redevelopment later and farther east than others due to their expectation of a more robust/longer- lasting area/period of cool stable air from the morning convection. The faster the morning activity and its associated cloud cover dissipate, the earlier we may see thunderstorms this afternoon. The early end of the window appears to be around 3-4 PM with most CAMs firing redevelopment by 6-7 PM.

Storms appear to form along one or two semi-linear axes of instability/convergence and sweep through the CWA from northwest to southeast. Storms look to clear the southeast CWA boundary by somewhere in the 12-3 AM timeframe. With direct support from the LLJ, damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms, especially in more organized linear and bowing segments. The hail risk appears to be more limited with the more robust deep-layer shear remaining in small pockets rather than becoming widespread. Hodographs are short, and storms will likely collapse on themselves before they become tall enough to deliver much in the way of hail. With pockets of better shear, though, the tallest storms may be able to produce a few larger hailstones up to the size of a quarter at most.

Additionally, there is a low, conditional risk for weak tornadoes and waterspouts. The storm activity would need to sufficiently modify the environment to increase the low-level shear and moisture content, which is of course difficult to predict on the storm scale. For these reasons, the damaging wind threat largely overshadows the hail and tornado threat.

Precipitable water values in forecast soundings are impressive, up to 2-2.5", which approaches and even exceeds the climatological max/record in the SPC sounding database. Plenty of instability and the potential for training, along with these high PW values, have prompted a Slight risk for excessive rainfall from SPC. While widespread totals are likely to remain below 0.5 inches, areas that experience the most mature storms and especially training storms may receive 3+ inches of rain in a short time period. One hour FFG ranges from 1.75"-3.00", and this environment will support the potential for 1-3"/hr rain rates.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The boundary responsible for today's mess is progged to stall out across the Ozarks for a couple of days, allowing widespread rain chances up to ~60% through Saturday with lingering precipitation into Sunday. With not much to move or modify things, marginal chances for severe thunderstorms will underlay the PoPs each day. Of course, with FFG likely being met in some places with just the first day in this series of wet days, flash flooding will continue to be a threat with additional rain through the weekend. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks reflect this.

The good news is that the precipitation activity will quell the heat for several days, and highs will largely remain in the upper 80s through early next week. However, a signal for a return to uncomfortable heat in the day 8-14 timeframe does exist.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

An area of thunderstorms this morning will most likely stay north of the TAF sites but will be close enough to SGF that a VCTS may be needed. Otherwise additional storm potential will exist later today and tonight however confidence is low in locations. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest. Low level wind shear is likely early this morning and again tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.