textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually warming up into next week with a return of highs in the 80s.

- High confidence in dry weather through next weekend.

- Monitoring for fire weather threat 7-10 days out (late next weekend into early next week).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Quiet and dry conditions persist through tonight. Highs will be around 80 today with minimum RH values generally around 25-40% (lowest along and east of Hwy 65). Light breezy winds out of the NNE will gradually diminish this afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Rainfall: The only rain in the forecast over the next 7 days is a 20% chance over the far eastern CWA late next weekend, but that is dependent on a tropic system developing and moving east of the area, which is a very low confidence event. Ensembles continue to show negative precipitation anomalies through early next week. In fact, ECMWF ensemble probabilities for < 0.10 inches of total QPF through October 12th is generally 80-90%.

Temperatures/Humidity: Look for highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s through Tuesday, then low to upper 80s through next weekend. Look for afternoon minimum RH values generally at 25-35% through next weekend, with areas along/west of I-49 being slightly higher and areas along/east of Highway 65 being lower with several days below 25% and perhaps some days below 20%.

Fire weather threat next weekend into the following week: Still early to be confident in details, but models are starting to show a period of gustier winds and minimal to no rainfall next weekend into at least the early part of the following week. This may be concerning given significant portions of the area received less than an inch of recent rainfall on top of extensive drought conditions, little to no rainfall over the next week, and persistent low humidity each day. Ensemble 75th-90th percentile gusts (representing the reasonable higher end of model guidance) are generally of 20-30 mph Saturday and 25-40 mph next Sunday and Monday. Ensembles are hinting at Tuesday and Wednesday next week potentially being even gustier. While these winds are not the most likely scenario, they are a plausible outcome and worth keeping an eye on given expected fuel conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Gusty morning to mid-day winds today will diminish through the rest of this afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.