textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk late tonight into Sunday morning for an area along and northwest of I-44. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with thunderstorm complex. The primary risk is damaging wind gusts.

- Slight (2 of 5) Severe risk on Sunday morning through Sunday night across the entire area. Primary risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk for a few tornadoes.

- A Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall risk on Sunday morning through Monday morning across the entire area. A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 am Sunday morning through 7 am Monday morning. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain with localized higher amounts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

This Morning-Tonight: A weak frontal boundary is stationed across central MO early this morning, and has been the focus for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-30% chances). This is being supported by warm air advection in the vicinity of marginal instability (MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg). Most locations have remained dry across the area, with coverage limited to west central and central MO.

As we progress into this afternoon, a shortwave trough breaks down the ridge to our west and will eventually be the focus for unsettled weather late tonight through Sunday. Ahead of the approaching trough, a warm front moves through the area today featuring highs in the middle to upper 80s, and dewpoints into the lower 70s. This increase will push heat index values into the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. Recent guidance suggests little to no activity develops as the warm front lifts through, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible (< 10% chance).

The attention then turns towards widespread convection progged to develop across the Central Plains and build southeast. This will occur in the vicinity of a developing low over the Plains that tracks eastward into eastern KS and western MO. CAMs support a general consensus of this complex nudging into west central and central MO through late tonight and early Sunday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a severe and flooding potential accompanying this system and subsequent thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Sunday: An overnight MCS/complex begins to dive southeast into the area late tonight into the early morning hours on Sunday. SPC continues to depict a Marginal (1 of 5) Severe risk across portions of southeast KS, southwest, west central, and central MO late tonight into Sunday morning. This is to capture a lingering strong to severe potential with the complex as it dives southeast into the area. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph with the complex, with a general weakening trend expected into early Sunday morning. However, there is still a bit of uncertainty on the extent south of the severe potential that will be best analyzed with future forecast updates and mesoscale trends.

Further attention turns towards a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat that has been well captured in the latest guidance. The area has seen its fair share of heavy rainfall through the first 2 to 3 weeks of June, with elevated streamflows and saturated soils. PWATs are expected to push towards 1.8 to 2.0 inches with the impending moisture flux over the area. Low-level moisture will continue to advect into the area through Sunday morning and beyond, supporting efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per a hour. Given the environment in place and increasing potential for training and multiple rounds of thunderstorms, WPC has introduced a Moderate (3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall risk for a good portion of the area on Sunday. Following suite, a Flood Watch has been issued for the entire area. This Flood Watch runs from 1am Sunday morning through 7am Monday morning. The latest trends suggests the heaviest axis to align across southeast KS into west central and southwest MO. This axis may wobble north or south over the next 12 to 18 hours. Nonetheless, it appears flash flooding will become a concern into Sunday morning, only to be further amplified with afternoon and evening rounds of thunderstorms with an eventual cold front passage.

Following in the footsteps of Sunday morning's complex, there will be remnant boundaries and cold pools lingering across the area. There still remains some uncertainty on how well the atmosphere recovers following the morning complex, but the CAM trends suggests a reinforcement of instability (MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg) in the vicinity of deep layer shear around 30 to 40 knots. This will support the potential of organized thunderstorms, and thus a severe potential. SPC continues to highlight the entire area in a Slight (2 of 5) Severe risk for Sunday. The primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter sized hail. A secondary risk for a few tornadoes exist into the area as well, and will be greatest along any existing boundaries in the area. This will be best captured as we see Sunday morning play out. It is plausible that hail and wind hazards are bumped higher if supercells become the likely storm mode. Furthermore, the heavy rainfall and flash flooding risk continues through Sunday, especially if the front slows into the area with more west-east oriented convection. This would further amplify rainfall amounts, that are already progged to be 1 to 3 inches areawide. Localized higher amounts are likely given the training potential. The front gradually works its way through the area Sunday night into Monday morning.

Next Week: A cooler start to the week, with temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. This is anywhere from 3 to 5 degrees below average for mid to late June. Furthermore, the pattern remains active, but a bit further south. This can be gleaned from 20-50% PoPs lingering into southern MO through Monday and Tuesday. If the jet stream nudges any further north, we could see an increase in early week rain chances. We will continue to monitor this potential, as ensemble guidance varies a bit into early next week. Additional rain chances return late week into next week, though all day washouts are not expected at this time. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions likely through most of the TAF period. Low chances (10%) for an isolated shower early this morning. Otherwise, light and variable winds through this morning, become predominately south- southeast into the afternoon/evening. Scattered clouds through today, with increasing cloud cover overnight tonight ahead of an approaching system.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.