textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s for portions of the area. - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (50-90% chances) are expected midweek/late week and could linger into the weekend. There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

High pressure will stick around the area through the next couple of days. This will allow our daytime high temperatures to reach the lower 80s today, and upper 80s tomorrow with mostly sunny skies. A drier than expected air mass is in place today with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will remain out of the east-southeast and stay under 10 knots. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with partly cloudy skies. Clouds start to build in tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next incoming system. We are not expecting rain from now through Tuesday night. Though, Tuesday night will be warm in the upper 60s to lower 70s due to the cloud cover.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The digging trough that's currently over the west coast will merge with the remnants of Hurricane Polo and bring us some much needed rain to end the week. Timing for the rain is forecast to occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning for most of the area. There are no severe weather outlooks for the end of the week/weekend at this time. Though, the strongest part of the trough will move through Thursday afternoon and could bring us a few rumbles of thunder. Moisture and lift will be there, but instability is in question as MUCAPE values are <500 J/kg. The trough over the area will be impacted by another trough moving through the northern Plains bringing us a cold front for the weekend. The northerly wind shift may occur during the day Friday, but the dewpoint drop won't occur until Saturday morning. There are discrepancies on how quickly the front moves through. The front could sweep through rather quickly and be out of the area by Saturday morning, or it sticks around and stalls out over southern MO bringing the area more rain into the weekend. Right now, we are going with the stalled front scenario with rain continuing through Saturday (30-50% chance of rain) and ending west to east Sunday morning (15-30% chance of rain).

Flooding: There is a flooding threat mainly west of Highway 65 where the higher axis of forecasted rainfall totals are situated. The trough will move into KS/OK and take its time moving east. It seems to become elongated and string out over the Central Plains. This system will be tropical-like and bring an abundance of moisture with it. Model PWATs with this system are record-breaking with values for this time of year near 2". Our daily max right now is 1.49", so this clearly will be a moist airmass moving in. Expect the rain to occur in bands and be prepared to receive multiple rounds of showers. Again, the higher rainfall totals are likely to occur west of Highway 65, but most of the area is expected to see near 1" of rain from Thursday through Sunday. We will continue to use probabilistic rainfall amounts until the event gets closer as rainfall amounts will change over the next couple of days as we try to narrow down the higher corridors of QPF. Please see the section below for probabilistic rainfall totals up to 3" for a few cities around the area. There may also be locally higher amounts where those bands of precipitation set up. This also means there may be sharp cut offs in rainfall amounts if you are located just outside of or too far to the east of these bands. We are in a D2 to D3 drought, which indicates that our soils could use the moisture. Even with that information, we still may issue a Flood Watch for counties at least west of I-49 due to the possibility of training heavy bands of rain for 24-48 hours. Areas in drought could still see flash flooding from this activity if the rain rates are high enough.

Probabilistic Rainfall Totals Wednesday-Saturday:

Joplin 1": 90% 2": 75% 3": 53%

Springfield 1": 82% 2": 68% 3": 39%

Branson 1": 72% 2": 56% 3": 31%

West Plains 1": 61% 2": 34% 3": 21%

Rolla 1": 75% 2": 54% 3": 27%

Temperatures: Temperatures will be warm on Wednesday in the upper 80s, but then we get another break from the abnormally warm temperatures. The rain will take its time spreading west to east on Thursday which will give us a 10 degree spread in temperatures across the area. Where the clouds and rain are, highs will stay in the lower 70s. Out over the eastern Ozarks where most of Thursday will be dry for them, they will be in the mid to upper 80s. By Friday, everyone will experience the cooldown with highs in the 70s. Those highs stick around through the weekend with lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR through the period with southeasterly winds less than 10 knots and partly cloudy skies.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.