textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory continues for areas along and west of I-49 today until 8 PM for heat index values up to 110 degrees. - Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms east of Highway 65 from 4 to 11 PM today. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk, with a secondary risk for hail (ping pong ball size) and tornadoes.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Synoptic Analysis shows an upper level low pressure system over the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the shortwave trough axis progged to continue pushing southeast throughout today. Satellite imagery showcases the associated surface low currently residing over northern Iowa, with a cold front extending south/southwest through northwest Missouri, southeast Kansas, and down into the Texas panhandle.

This morning's showers/storms have pushed out of the area, with radar showing clear weather across the forecast area. Behind this morning's convection and ahead of the cold front, temperatures have begun to climb, with observations as of 1PM showing temps in the upper 70s/low 80s east of Hwy 65 and into the low 90s further west towards the MO/KS border so far. Over the next few hours, temps will continue to climb a couple more degrees in areas that haven't experienced peak heating, with highs topping out in the 90s along/west of Highway 65, and the mid 80s further east. Additionally, with dewpoints in the 70s and relative humidity values of 70-80%, it's been a very muggy morning/early afternoon. This has helped raise heat index values into the upper 90s to 105 degree range, especially for areas that were able to clear out faster from the morning rain, generally along/west of Highway 65. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas along/west of the I-49 corridor, where heat indices will range between 105-110 degrees.

Severe Weather Chances This Afternoon/Evening:

Visible satellite has been depicting clearing behind the morning activity, which has led to daytime heating and destabilization as much of the area is now in the warm sector. As the afternoon continues with diurnal heating, Hi-Res guidance suggests MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg ahead of the trailing cold front. Deep layer shear values remain relatively marginal between 25-35kts, however as they're oriented perpendicular to the approaching frontal boundary, some semi-discrete cells could initiate before developing into a more organized cluster/line segment, bringing the potential for severe weather. SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east of Highway 65, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) extending westward. Right now, damaging winds look to be the primary hazard, especially if any part of the line segment can begin to bow out. If discrete cells do end up initiating ahead of the front (as CAMs are suggesting) , large hail up to ping pong ball size will also pose a secondary threat, however this is a lower-end scenario. There will also be a short window in which tornadoes will pose a threat, especially if SRH values up to 150-250 m2/s2 can align with the highest instability. This would primarily be for areas east of Highway 65, which is highlighted by SPC's 5% tornado risk area. CAMs suggest the greatest severe threat would be within a 4pm-11pm window, with the better severe chances along/east of Highway 63.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The cold front will usher in a cooler, drier airmass into the region on Saturday, leading to highs remaining in the 70s for much of the area (and into the low 80s for far southeast KS/southwest MO). This would be well below (10-15 degrees below) the climatological normal. This is supported by northwesterly flow aloft, as an upper level closed High pressure system resides over the Four Corners region, with an associated upper Ridge over the western CONUS. Additionally, Saturday will be breezy, with gusts up to 30-35mph throughout the day.

Temperatures will gradually warm up throughout next week, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s by midweek. Mostly dry weather is expected as we head into the beginning of August.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 555 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Isolated convection has begun to initiate ahead of a cold front pushing through the area, bringing chances for strong to severe storms. KJLN is now behind the front, so confidence is high that that terminal will remain dry. There's low confidence in convection affecting KSGF and KBBG, with the better chances (albeit still below 30%) at KBBG. Went with a PROB30 group for KBBG for -TSRA to account for this potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist until approximately 11Z when MVFR ceilings filter in to KSGF and KBBG before lifting between 20Z-22Z.

Behind the frontal passage, northwest winds will begin to pick up at all sites, gusting up to 20-30kts beginning around 06Z and persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088- 093-101.