textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect from 12 PM today through 7 AM Wednesday as Heat Index values reach as high as 106 F. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-related impacts.

- After a brief dry period, shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and onward as a frontal boundary loiters around the region. A Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms exists at least for Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Another complex of thunderstorms is currently decaying as it moves east-southeastward through southeast Kansas and central Missouri. This complex is escaping east of a weak stationary boundary over Kansas. In doing so, it is also moving east of better background flow and instability as it pushes into raised mid- and upper-level geopotential heights of a building ridge, despite quite elevated moisture keeping temperatures mild in the lower to middle 70s.

Severe Thunderstorm and Flood Watch set to end at 4 and 7 AM:

Infrared satellite trends show rapid warming cloud tops and subsequent weakening of the system. This is expected to continue through the morning with the complex completely dissipating by 7-9 AM or so. That said, there has been some transient spikes in some cells over the last hour or so, which holds the Severe Watch until 4 AM given the instability still in place. Additionally, the remnant rain of the complex will move over areas that saw copious amounts of rain last night, so for that reason, the Flood Watch will also be help through 7 AM.

Additional storms have been developing over Kansas, and there is some hints that they may take the same track as the current complex, coming close to our CWA by early/mid-morning. However, with atmospheric upturn in the wake of the first system paired with the timing of the next storms being in our area by morning mix time, current expectations is for these storms to either A) not make it into our area, or B) be in a sub-severe state if they do.

Heat Advisory to take over starting at 12 PM today:

With rain ending through the morning, attention then turns to the developing heat. Moisture has been quite plentiful the past few days, but max temperatures have been on the mild side in the lower 80s. This will change today as abnormal mid-level ridging has finally taken hold of the area leading to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. NAEFS ESATs continue to show >99.5th percentile mid- level heights, paired with the already maxed out moisture for the 30-year climatology of early June. The warmer temperatures and excessive moisture (dewpoints in the upper 70s, nearing 80 F in some places!) will lead to Heat Index values in the upper 90s to middle 100s (as in around 105, not 150 ;). Being the first heat wave of the season, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area as heat-related impacts may be heightened.

The Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Wednesday as mild nighttime temperatures in the middle 70s will limit heat relief for those that do not have ample cooling methods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Heat Index values around 100 continue Wednesday and Thursday:

The warm and humid air mass will remain in place Wednesday and Thursday with Heat Index values continuing to be around 95-105 F. However, as a potent closed low moves across the northern CONUS, high cloud cover may increase into Wednesday, tempering max heat indices a bit. For that reason, the Heat Advisory is currently set to end Wednesday morning. This will be revisited with the forecast shift during the day today for potential extension through at least Wednesday.

Thursday looks even more uncertain in terms of heat as a cold front is forecast to drop from the northeast during the day. This will lead to storm development, which may also temper max heat indices a bit.

Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday:

Firstly, there is a very small portion of a Marginal Risk in our northwest counties for Wednesday night. The risk here is a bit low as this would be any remnants from storms in the main risk during the day Wednesday. If thinking on that changes, we will certainly update messaging, but for now, any severe risk appears very low.

Moving into Thursday, global models are in good agreement on a compact shortwave rounding the larger closed low, lifting through the central and northern Plains. This will force a cold front to drop south east through our area during the day Thursday. Thanks to the very high upper 70s and nearing 80 dewpoints at the surface, and cooler air aloft approaching with the wave, MUCAPE is expected to be very high. LREF mean places MUCAPE values in the 3500-4000 J/kg range, with the operational GFS showing a swath of 5000-5500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear looks to be a bit on the weaker side with values in the 25-30 kt range. But with bombastic CAPE values, a cold front diving through it, and at least enough shear for multicell clusters, severe weather is certainly possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

Exact hazards will depend on storm mode which depends on the amount of shear that actually transpires, so trends will continue to be monitored. With 25-30 kts currently forecast, the main risk would be multicell clusters with damaging winds as the main threat and large hail as a secondary threat. If deep-layer shear can increase, supercells and all hazards would become a concern.

The cold front moving through will cool temperatures back to near normal into the weekend (highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s).

Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into early next week:

Following the exit of the shortwave, the pattern will become quite zonal as the closed low slowly moves west to east through south-central Canada. The zonal flow will allow the cold front to lift back north through our area, bringing additional 60-70% rain chances this weekend. LREF ensemble clusters diverge after the weekend, but mean solutions point to the front loitering around our region, with slight advancements/retrogrades depending on timing and strength of shortwaves moving through the flow. The front hanging around the region will continue to bring rain chances into early next week. The NBM shows around a 20% chance for >3 inches of rain west of Highway 65 for Thursday through Monday. Additional severe and flooding threats may materialize with any of these rounds, but given uncertainty in exact timing, there is not much to be said about the risk on any given day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Decayed remnants of thunderstorm complexes have left several layers of cloud debris across the TAF sites to start the 12Z period. Some cigs may drop below 3 kft at time, especially at JLN, but expectation is for gradual clearing and lifting of cigs.

Of lower confidence, yet another thunderstorm complex is moving in from Kansas. Guidance has not been handling this system well. Recent trends have it pretty steady-state. Therefore, it may follow the same path as the previous complex and impact the JLN/SGF TAF sites between 13-16Z. Amendments may be needed if confidence increases.

Otherwise, following variable winds behind any storms, winds will become predominantly out of the southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times before diminishing to 8-12 kts after 00Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.