textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Watch along a corridor roughly from the Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat indices near/around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this area. Heat indicies around 100 are expected elsewhere early next week. - Rain chances return Wednesday through Friday (20-50%), especially north of Interstate 44.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a upper level high across the southwest US. An upper level disturbance responsible for the evening storms/flooding was shifting southeast into Arkansas. Clouds were beginning to clear from the northwest. Temps were largely in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Dry and Hot Today: Clouds will continue to clear out early this morning and there could be some patchy fog around sunrise. Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected today. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s across the east to the lower/middle 90s from Springfield and points west. Winds will be light with not alot of mixing occuring. Therefore a few locations west of Springfield could see heat indices reach 100.

Overnight, a weak shortwave looks to cause showers and storms across Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Almost all guidance has this activity weakening and perhaps even dissipating before reaching the area by early Sunday morning. We will need to monitor latest guidance to make sure that activity does not make it in here. Precip chances are currently less than 10 percent.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Extreme Heat Watch Sunday - Wednesday: Ensemble guidance is in agreement that the upper level ridge out west will elongate/spread east late weekend through early next week. Rising heights and increasing 850mb temps will allow for temps to increase well back into the 90s. NBM interquartile ranges are about 3-5 degrees with many areas reaching the lower to upper 90s. Locations west of Springfield have not seen as much rain lately and those areas could see highs approach 100 by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Those temps alone are not unusual for this time of year however with dews staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s, this will push heat indicies up to 100 degrees with some areas around 105 degrees for several days. This creates a prolonged heat risk. So far many times this summer we have seen highest afternoon dewpoints and heat indicies off of the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. We have seen deeper mixing on the plateau with heat indices staying a tad lower. Currently the highest confidence area for heat indicies to reach 105 is in the area that we will be issuing an Extreme Heat Watch for Sunday through Wednesday from roughly a corridor from the Joplin metro up towards the Lake of the Ozarks region. What may occur is that an eventual Heat Advisory may be needed for most of the area with some areas getting into a Extreme Heat Warning. Future updates will expand on this possibility.

Also of note is that the NWS Experimental Heat Risk tool does show a large portion of the area in the major category which means that heat related impacts affect anyone with cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries.

Rain Chances Return Mid/Late Week: Ensemble cluster analysis then shows the ridge flattening out a bit with a return to a slightly northwest flow aloft which will allow for a return to precip chances. Currently rain chances are highest north of I-44 however confidence in placement of rain chances at this range in that type of pattern is low and would expect additional changes with future updates. NBM temps spreads are much larger by late next week which also leads to a lower confidence time frame.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of the south, generally remaining less than 10 kt through the afternoon. May see a slight uptick after dark and into Sunday with a few gusts up to 17 kt across far southwest Missouri.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094- 101.