textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog will occur across portions of central and southern Missouri early this morning. Some locations could see visibilities below one mile at times.

- Isolated storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible, but many locations will remain dry with limited coverage.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe storms tonight into Sunday morning, generally along and west of Highway 65.

- After the weekend, most (if not all) of the area stays dry through most of next week, with next widespread rain chances returning late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas of fog development is expected across portions of southern and central Missouri early this morning. Visibilities could drop to below one mile at times with some dense fog possible in spots. Lows will drop to upper to middle 60s this morning with the lower temps in south central MO.

Storms developed across central Kansas late this evening, and this activity will continue to push east to southeast early this morning, remaining along the instability axis across Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. The uncapped MUCAPE will mainly remain west and southwest of the area during the rest of the overnight hours into this morning, but the northern edge of the uncapped MUCAPE will clip the far western and southwestern portions of the area, generally along a Fort Scott Kansas to Cassville Missouri line. The current convection across central Kansas should continue to move east southeast within this area of enhanced instability. Overall, the severe risk is low with this activity, as deep layer shear is weak and the better instability will be west/southwest of the area, but there could be a few strong storms capable of penny size hail and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph; but generally, the better potential for this will be west of the area and many locations across the the area will not be impacted.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with this activity, and could produce localized flooding anywhere that multiple storms can track over the same locations. Any convection that moves more east should weaken as it gets into the more capped air mass across the rest of the area, but some showers will be possible this morning as this activity weakens as it moves into the area.

Upper-level ridging will move east over the area today, resulting in warm air advection into the region. Instability will increase across the area this afternoon, and the cap will start to weaken but will likely not completely erode, before likely re-strengthening again this evening. Some isolated storms will be possible, but coverage will likely be limited this afternoon into this evening. If storms can develop, a few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible, but with the weaker shear, the overall severe risk is low.

Storms are expected to develop across Kansas again this evening into Sunday. As Theta-E difference increase and cold pools congeal and an outflow boundary will develop and move southeast into the area with additional storms developing on the outflow. The MUCAPE instability of 2000-3000 J/kg develops west of Highway 65 tonight into Sunday morning. Deep layer shear will remain on the weaker side, limiting the overall severe risk, but given the thermodynamics there will be the potential for isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail up to the size of quarters tonight into Sunday morning, mainly west of Highway 65. Locally heavy rainfall will also occur with the storms, and if any storms can track over the same locations a localized flooding risk will also be possible tonight into Sunday morning.

The storms will likely move east of Highway 65 later Sunday morning and afternoon. Shear will be even weaker and there will be less instability, so a few strong storms may be possible but lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk. Sunday afternoon, a warmer and drier air mass will advect into the area from west to east, which will limit storm potential after the morning activity.

Highs are expected to range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s and maybe even low 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri today and Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The upper-level ridge will start to move east over the region early next week. The eastern and northern portions of the area will remain in the northwest flow of the ridge Sunday night into Monday. Therefore, showers and storms will be possible from the Lake of the Ozarks region to the eastern Ozarks Sunday night into Monday.

The upper-level ridge will then be over the region through the middle of next week and most locations should remain dry each day. Highs are expected to middle 80s to near 90 early next week.

Late week (late Thursday/Friday), the ridge starts to move east as a trough moves into the Plains, which will bring additional shower and storm chances to the region. There are still differences between the ensemble model members on the track and timing of the system late next week, which will impact timing and exact precipitation chances for the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Partial clearing behind this morning's precipitation may allow for the re-development of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of a front. Ceilings to IFR with visibilities of IFR or lower will be possible under any stronger storms.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.