textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably pleasant and dry conditions with near-normal temperatures in the 70s to mid-80s continuing through the rest of the week.

- Continuing to monitor pattern trends of 20-40% rain chances this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Much to write about nothing--which is a good thing after the brunt of heat that we endured the first half of September.

15-30% chance of showers and a stray thunderstorm this afternoon:

Current visible and water vapor satellite imagery depicts low- level stratus clouds clearing from west to east as a mid-level shortwave axis progresses eastward through Missouri, placing us in largely west-northwesterly flow. In the wake of the burning stratus, a cumulus field remains, with some clouds becoming tall enough for very light showers, especially within central Missouri. This is occurring in an area of 250-1000 J/kg of remnant instability, despite the main surface cold front being well south of the area. These instability profiles were quite thin based on our 12Z balloon data, and with synoptic descent taking hold of the area upstream of the exiting trough axis, would not expect much else other than a few stray stronger showers/thunderstorms this afternoon (15-30% chance).

Patchy light drizzle potential again late tonight:

As the shortwave continues to push off eastward, ridging across the Plains states is forecast to begin to amplify. This will shift low-level winds to more east-northeasterly across our area as air tends to move toward the resulting low pressure across the Rocky Mountain frontrange. With this northeasterly shift, cooler air and resulting low stratus should develop tonight as the air moves up the Ozark Plateau. This source of orographic lift may help promote some patchy drizzle production --much like this morning--as forecast soundings depict capping to remain above the saturated near-surface layer. The chance for patchy drizzle is lower tonight than it was this morning, though, since greater synoptic descent will be in the region with the shortwave east of the area. Will not discount orographic lift, though, so leaving the mention there as a key message for now. Any low stratus and drizzle would then evaporate by mid to later morning following daytime mixing.

Seasonably pleasant conditions continue through the work week:

As ridging over the Plains amplifies and becomes more meridional, it will only very slowly translate eastward, keeping east-northeasterly surface flow over our area, locking in the cooler air mass. "Cooler" is relative, of course, as the air mass is actually "normal" for this time of year. It is just much cooler than the persistent, record-breaking heat for September we just experienced. Anyways, highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows in the 50s will persist through Friday night before a warm front begins to press toward the area. Dry conditions are also forecast for this period, save for the patchy light drizzle Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Monitoring pattern trends for 20-40% rain chances this weekend:

The ridge forecast to be over the region Thursday and Friday is progged to be quite amplified/meridional. Global ensemble members are depicting a low-amplitude shortwave trough to progress through the west side of this ridge Friday and Saturday. Due to the amplified, but thin and meridional nature of the ridge paired with the low amplitude of the wave, it seems model members are struggling a bit on timing and placement of the shortwave trough. This is leading to uncertainty in the progression of a surface warm front and attendant rain chances into our area.

It seems there are two main scenarios. The first is the shortwave breaks the ridge down, and the wave rounds the top of the ridge and drops through the central CONUS. This scenario would bring a higher chance of rain to our area. The other scenario, is that instead of fully breaking down the ridge, it shifts the axis to be oriented northeastward, and the wave lifts off into the Great Lakes. This scenario would bring lower rain chances to our area. So, for now, chances are 20-40% across the area given the uncertainty in placement and timing. The pattern will continue to be monitored for any preference of the two scenarios. Either way, any chances of severe weather is very low as appreciable shear should stay well north of the area. It will mainly come down to coverage and longevity of any rain chances.

Temperatures should warm, though, as the ridge traverses the area, with forecast highs bumping up into the 80s for Saturday and Sunday. There is then even more uncertainty in the pattern going into next week, bringing wildly large temperature spreads. This is largely due to the transition to fall weather with the jet stream becoming a bit more variable, promoting chances for cold fronts to move through the area. While the 25th-75th percentile temperature spreads hover within the 80s to near 90 (consolidating greater confidence to that temperature range), the tails spread all the way from near records in the mid-90s, to somewhat cooler fall weather near 70 F. We will also continue to monitor these trends for any changes in the mean forecast temperatures next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

An MVFR stratus cloud deck is morning southwest across portions of central Missouri late this evening, and also developing across far southern Missouri. The stratus deck and low level moisture will continue to move southwest tonight into early Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at the KSGF and KBBG sites, but this stratus deck is expected to remain east of the KJLN site. Some IFR ceilings and maybe a brief period of light drizzle could develop within this stratus deck tonight, but at this time confidence low for this occurring. Any locations impacted by these low level clouds tonight/early Wednesday morning should see ceilings should improve fairly quickly after sunrise Wednesday morning.

Some patchy light ground fog will be possible in spots tonight/early Wednesday morning, but overall impacts are expected to be minimal.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.