textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area today, with heat index values around 100 to 110. The hottest conditions will occur across southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri

- Scattered showers and storms will occur across portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-90%) will then increase from north to south this evening/tonight into Thursday.

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms today and again across south central Missouri on Thursday. Low confidence in the potential for localized heavy rainfall.

- Near average temperatures into the weekend, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-70%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure and a warm air mass remains in place across the area early this morning. The ridge is starting to flatten as an upper level trough is moving east out of the northern Plains. The upper level trough will move east in the Great Lakes region today and will start to slowly push the upper level ridge to the south/west. A cold front will slowly move south across northern Missouri today into central Missouri by this evening and will slowly move south into the area tonight before pushing through the rest of the area on Thursday. A warm air mass will remain in place across much of the area today as 850mb temperatures will warm into the lower 20C today. Highs are once again expected to warm into the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. The hottest temperatures and heat index values will occur across southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri where heat index values around 105 to 110 are expected. Highs will start to cool across central MO this afternoon as clouds increase from north to south as the front moves south towards/into the area. With the front moving slower to the south have expanded the Heat Advisory to the north slightly and the Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of the area except for portions of central MO. Afternoon humidity values will once again drop to near 30 to 40% across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri this afternoon. South to southwesterly wind gusts up to around 25 mph will also occur at times this morning into this afternoon and will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions. As the front pushes south into the area humidity values will increase.

Some isolated showers and storms will be posisble across the area this afternoon/early evening but overall coverage should be limited south of the front as a cap and drier air mass will be in place. As the front moves south into there area rain chances will increase mainly along and north of Highway 54 this evening. The front continue to slowly move south across the area tonight and will likely stall across the area tonight into Thursday morning with the better rain chances occurring along and north of I-44 through tonight. There is a low chance for a few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts the main risk. With the front slowly moving south through the area some locally heavy rainfall will be possible where storms can training over the same locations.

An upper level shortwave will move through the region on Thursday and push the front through the rest of the area. instability will increase across south central Missouri Thursday afternoon south of the area. As the front pushes south through the area there will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the main risk as theta-E difference increase across souther/south central MO during the afternoon/early evening hours, before the front pushes south of the area. Rain chances will increase across southern Missouri on Thursday as the front moves south and decrease north of I-44 as the front moves south through the day.

Cooler conditions are expected across much of the area on Thursday behind the front. Portions of far south central Missouri will likely warm into the 90s again ahead of the front, but the rest of the area should see highs in the lower to middle 80s and portions of central Missouri may only warm into the upper 70s on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s Friday through the weekend. A few isolated shower/storms will be possible on Friday across portions of southern Missouri but most locations will likely remain dry.

The ensemble model members show an upper level ridge over the plains. There will be the potential for storms to develop across the central Plains and move southeast into portions of the area later Saturday into Sunday. There are still questions on where the storms develop and then how they track with this system. At this time the better potential will be to the north with chances decrease to the south into southern Missouri. There could be some locally heavy rainfall if this activity is able to move through portions of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 507 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A cold front will slowly move south across Missouri today and tonight. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur across the area this morning and afternoon ahead of the front. Some scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area this afternoon into this evening. Coverage will be limited. As the front moves south shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along and behind the front. The better chances will remain north of the TAF sites but will start to approach the I-44 corridor late tonight into early Thursday. The better chances at the TAF sites will be just after the TAF period Thursday morning. MVFR conditions will occur with the storms and the heavier showers.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 9: KSGF: 98/1939 KJLN: 100/1947 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 99/1980

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 9: KSGF: 75/1939

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066>070- 077>083-088>098-101>106.