textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Primary risks are damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, and a tornado or two.

- Gusty northwest winds of 40 to 50 mph will occur behind the front this afternoon through tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area. - Light snow behind the frontal passage this evening, with any accumulating amounts a half inch or less in central Missouri. A few slick spots possible through tonight into the Monday morning commute.

- Below average temperatures with near record lows in the teens will occur on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will quickly rebound to above average by the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: Observations capture temperatures in the lower to middle 60s ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front extends from a low pressure system that is quickly strengthening in northeast MO. In the upper-levels, a trough is digging into the Central Plains, and will eject out into the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This is a strong dynamic system. Strong forcing with the approaching front will aid in the erosion of an existing cap, as captured in the latest KSGF 17 UTC sounding. Further analysis of this sounding depicts increasing low-level moisture, with observed dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s across southern MO. Expectations remain on track for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the frontal boundary, generally along the Highway 65 vicinity. As the front and associated precipitation shift east of Highway 65, the environment becomes more favorable for organized convection. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg nudges into south central MO ahead of the front, within a highly sheared environment. Expect the strongest thunderstorms to develop into the Eastern Ozarks, or Highway 63 and east. There will be a narrow window for strong to severe thunderstorms to occur, generally from now through 6 or 7 pm. This aligns with the latest SPC Severe Weather Outlooks. A Slight (2 of 5) Risk extends from Highway 65 to Highway 63 corridor, with an Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk into far south central MO. The primary threat are damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and a few spin up tornadoes. Hail remains less likely given the lack of favorable mid-level lapse rates in addition to storm mode being linear in nature compared to single/multi cell thunderstorms. With regards to the tornado risk, the most favorable low-level environment will align across south central into central MO. This is where low- level CAPE increases to around 100 J/kg in addition to line normal 0-3 km shear around 40 to 45 knots to the east/northeast. This would suggest a favorable environment for any bowing segments to produce a QLCS tornado or two. This is especially true for activity as it begins to exit east of our area and taps into better moisture early this evening. Continue to follow the forecast for updates on the mesoscale influences unfold.

In addition to the strong to severe thunderstorm potential, this system will also feature gusty non-thunderstorm winds. Behind the frontal passage, northwest winds ramp up to 30 to 40 mph, with occasional higher gusts approaching 40 to 50 mph. This can be gleaned from the latest momentum transfer on model soundings. For this reason, a Wind Advisory covers the entire area through tonight.

The other two facets of this system are the light snow chances and anomalous cold temperatures. The latest CAMs still suggest a band of light snow, perhaps moderate at times, to sweep through with wraparound moisture. This band is beginning to come together as we speak across eastern KS. The latest timing would suggest between 5 to 9 pm for this light snow to move through, generally north of Interstate 44. While ground temperatures will likely result in melting, there is a concern for brief periods of reduced visibilities with the falling snow. Furthermore, wet pavement may be at risk for flash freeze as temperatures continue to plummet behind the frontal passage. While snow amounts are expected to remain around a half inch or less, a few slick spots remain plausible given the rapid drop in temperatures into this evening/tonight. The greatest chances for a light dusting to a half inch are across central MO and locations north. Further south of Interstate 44, a light snow may mix with rain before the arrival of the colder air. This brings us to the other headline, bitter cold ahead through early this week. Lows tonight are progged to fall into teens to lower 20s.

Monday: As we progress into Monday morning, gusty northwest winds will gradually be on the decrease. However, still looking at wind gusts around 25 to 35 mph, supporting wind chills around zero. The area struggles to warm out of the lower/middle 30s on Monday afternoon. This is 20 to 30 degrees below average for mid- March. Another very cold night ahead into Tuesday morning, with lows in the teens once again. Those in the agriculture community should pay close attention to sensitive crops/early blooming. Additionally, make sure to not be caught off guard by the brief return of Winter and take the proper precautions. Potential record lows may occur over the next 48 hours, check out the Climate section for additional information.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Tuesday-Saturday: As we progress through mid-week, temperatures will slowly moderate. Highs Tuesday top out in the 40s to lower 50s (far southwest MO). Ensembles depict an upper-level ridge begin to strengthen into mid-week, with increasing heights. This will support a substantial warming trend by Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. Highs on Wednesday reach into the middle to upper 60s, putting us 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid- March. This will be quiet the contrast to previous days/nights early week.

NBM interquartile temperature spreads remain 20 to 25 degrees, though all above normal. For instance highs Thursday through the weekend are progged to range anywhere from upper 60s/lower 70s (25th percentile) to middle/upper 80s (75th percentile). For the time being, forecasting highs lean towards the 50th percentile in the middle to upper 70s, to even lower 80s. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This warm weather will be accompanied by a drier stretch of weather, with no rain chances through next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A dynamic system is bringing widespread MVFR conditions with some IFR and LIFR observations, primarily due to snow and low clouds following a cold front. Ceilings under 1 kft will be transient with heavy snow bands, and borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings will persist until around 12Z. Precipitation is expected to end shortly after the start of the period. Skies become clear by 18Z. Gusty northwest winds continue through the TAF period with sustained speeds up to 25 kts and gusts up to 40 kts. Winds begin to decrease going into the next TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A cold arctic airmass will bring a brief return of winter temperatures to the Ozarks for Monday (March 16) and Tuesday (March 17) mornings. For some locations, mornings lows may fall to near record temperatures with forecast lows in the middle to upper teens. These temperatures may have impacts on early blooming vegetation thanks to a warm previous two week period of temperatures from 5 to 15 degrees above average. Of the past 13 days, 10 have been warmer than average.

Record Low Temperatures:

March 16: KSGF: 16/1895 KJLN: 19/1988 KVIH: 14/1900 KUNO: 16/1988

March 17: KSGF: 13/1900 KJLN: 16/1906 KVIH: 8/1900 KUNO: 18/1958

Record Low Highs:

March 16: KUNO: 32/1970

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.