textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms over west central MO into southeast KS this evening. Main risk will be with damaging wind up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. - Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next weekend with highs in the 80s to around 90 late week into the weekend.

- There's a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Water vapor imagery was showing an upper level shortwave tracking east across the upper Great Lakes region early this afternoon. Upper level analysis shows a high amplitude upper ridge from the 4 corners region into British Columbia and Alberta with an upper low shifting east in the Pacific towards the coast of OR/WA. Weak upper level northwest flow was occurring over our area to the east of the upper ridge axis and will help to draw the western sections of a cold front into the area tonight.

This cold front was currently positioned from a low in northern Wisconsin into the far northwest corner of MO and southwest into southwestern KS. Visible satellite imagery was showing no clouds over the forecast area with some mid level cloud cover near the frontal boundary in northern MO. 12z sounding from SGF shows a lot of dry air and a decent cap in place across the area.

Tonight: Frontal boundary will push through between 9pm and 2 am. Some elevated instability and 0-6 shear over southeast KS into west central MO may be supportive of a strong storm if storms can develop from mid to late evening, however instability will be weakening and frontal convergence looks pretty weak. CAMS develop some isolated showers/storms, however coverage(20% or less) continues to look good given the negatives. Cloud cover should diminish towards morning with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Wednesday: Northwest flow aloft will bring a surface high into the area during the day with a dry air mass. Temperatures should be from the mid 70s to around 80.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper level ridge axis will shift east into the area on Thursday with southerly winds in the low levels developing on the back of the high pressure. Moisture will be drawn back to the north into eastern KS and western MO with afternoon instability increasing along with the moisture. Storms may develop ahead of a dryline and mid level shortwave late Thursday/Thursday night further west in KS and possibly moving into the area Thursday night. Temperatures should warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

On Friday, ensemble mean 850mb temperatures warm into the upper teens to around 20 deg C. This would be in the >90th percentile for this time of year. Local climatology brings temperatures into the mid to upper 80s with cloud cover or upper 80s to low 90s with limited cloud cover. This fits fairly well or slightly cooler than the 25th-75th percentile of the NBM which has upper 80s to low 90s for highs.

Upper level flow becomes more westerly Thursday into the weekend with decent Gulf moisture across the area and dew points in the 60s. Best rain chances will occur in our northern CWA on Saturday into Sunday night.

A deeper trough will begin to develop on Sunday night across the Rockies with strong southerly flow occurring in the low levels and southwesterly flow aloft. Storms may begin to push into the area ahead of a cold front Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

A front will continue to move south through the area tonight into early Wednesday. Light southwesterly winds will occur ahead of the front, with north to northeasterly winds occurring behind the front through the day on Wednesday. An increase in mid level clouds will occur with the frontal passage, with clouds clearing shortly behind the front. No rain is expected with the frontal passage.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.