textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through Thursday with some records threatened (see Climate section).

- Windy conditions today and tonight. The strongest gusts may reach 30 to 40 mph.

- Elevated to significant fire weather conditions, as warm and dry air mass combines with gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday. - Rain chances Tuesday night (15-30%), Thursday (15-25%) and Friday night into Saturday night (30-35%).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

An upper level trough and area of surface low pressure is located across the northern Plains this afternoon. The pressure gradient has tightened across the and southerly winds will continue to gust to 30 to 40 mph at times this afternoon into this evening. A front will move east through the region this evening into tonight. There could be a few isolated light rain showers along the front this evening, coverage will be very limited and rainfall amounts will be light with any rain that is able to develop. The pressure gradient will weaken behind the front which winds gradually weakening overnight. Temperatures will not cool much behind the front as lows only drop into the middle 40s to the lower 50s this afternoon. Skies will also clear from west to east tonight behind the front.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A warm air mass will remain in place across the area on Wednesday as highs warm into the lower 70s. A much drier air mass will advect into the region on Wednesday, and with mixing, afternoon humidity values are expected to drop to 15 to 25%. Winds will be lighter on Wednesday, generally around 10mph, with mixing there will be some gusts up to 15 to 25 mph at times. Elevated fire weather weather conditions will develop across the area on Wednesday afternoon, there could be some localized significant fire weather conditions possible across the western portions of the area where winds could be slightly more.

The warm air mass will remain in place on Thursday with highs again warming into the upper 60s to the lower 70s, some middle 70 readings are possible. There is the potential for some record high temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, please see climate section below.

A dry air mass will remain in place on Thursday and will be another day where drier air mixes down with afternoon RH values falling into the 20 to 30% range. Surface low pressure will move across the central Plains on Thursday resulting in southerly winds increasing and becoming gusty. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected with some gusts up to 40 mph possible across the western portions of the area Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. The warm and dry air mass will combine with the gusty winds to create elevated to significant fire weather conditions on Thursday and could approach Red Flag Warning criteria. A front will move east through the area on Thursday, but the cooler air mass will lag behind the front on a secondary cold front that will move through the area on Thursday afternoon. Winds will become more westerly behind the front Thursday afternoon. With the dry air mass in place the front should pass through mainly dry but there is a low chance (<20%) for a sprinkle light shower Thursday evening across the east but most locations will remain dry.

A cooler air mass will advect into the region Thursday night into Friday as lows drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday morning with highs in the upper 40s to the middle 50s Friday afternoon. A dry air mass will be in place, but with the slightly cooler conditions afternoon RH values will drop into the 25 to 35% range. Winds will be much lighter with winds less than 10mph and gusts less than 20mph.

Another system will then move across the region Friday night into Saturday. The models continue to differ on the track and structure of this system. Some of the ensemble model members are bringing the system dry where others show the potential for some light precipitation. A dry air mass will be in place ahead of this system and moisture return will be limited, so only expecting light precipitation. This precipitation will likely be banded in nature and will coincide with the better lift. A cooler air mass will be in place and the temperature profile could support a light snow or a rain light snow mix. Though, there is a lot of uncertainty with this system and only light preciptiation is expected at this time.

Cooler conditions will occur this weekend into early next week, highs in the 40s lows in the 20s and teens behind the system. An upper level ridge then appears to build over the region by the middle of next weekend with a potential for a warming trend again.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. A few very weak echoes on radar will push east through southern Missouri after 00Z that may result in a few sprinkles at the terminals, but confidence in occurrence was too low to include in the TAFs, and confidence in any impacts is even lower. Clouds will begin to clear out after 06Z, through high clouds will remain possible across southern Missouri through much of the day Wednesday.

Breezy southerly winds and low-level wind shear will be ongoing at the start of the TAF period but are expected to decrease Wednesday morning behind the passage of a cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A front will move east across the region this evening into tonight. A warmer air mass will remain in place behind the front, but a much drier air mass will advect into the region. Mostly sunny skies will occur on Wednesday and highs will warm into the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Winds will be lighter across the area tomorrow than today. Mixing will occur (mixing heights of 4500 to 5000ft) and allow RH values to drop to 15 to 25% Wednesday afternoon. Sustained winds will be 5 to 15mph with gusts up to 25 mph with the strongest winds west of Highway 65. With the dry air mass in place, elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the area. RH values are expected to reach Red Flag criteria but winds are currently expected to remain below.

The warm and dry air mass will remain in place on Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to the middle 70s again. Surface low pressure will move across the central Plains on Thursday. A frontal boundary will be east across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will start off out of the west Thursday morning and will become southwesterly then westerly behind the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will increase with winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 40mph, the strongest winds will be west of Highway 65. Mixing will again occur (around 5000ft) with RH falling into the 20 to 30% range. If slightly warmer conditions can occur it's possible RH values could drop to as low as 15% Thursday afternoon. These conditions will approach Red Flag Warning criteria across the western portions of the area.

CLIMATE

Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 73/1911 KJLN: 74/2011 KUNO: 77/1986 KVIH: 73/2017

February 18: KSGF: 74/2016 KJLN: 78/1986 KVIH: 72/1991 KUNO: 77/1986

February 19: KSGF: 75/2017 KJLN: 78/2017 KVIH: 76/2017 KUNO: 73/1981

Record Warmest Minimum Temperatures:

February 17: KSGF: 54/2011 KJLN: 63/1911 KUNO: 55/1961 KVIH: 55/1961

February 18: KSGF: 51/1971 KJLN: 58/1971 KUNO: 53/1971 KVIH: 50/2017

February 19: KSGF: 52/1994 KJLN: 53/1943 KUNO: 54/1994 KVIH: 54/1994

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.