textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will occur this afternoon as dry air remains in place across the region.

- Line of gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area on Sunday along a cold front. Severe wind gust potential exists east of Highway 65. - Light snow will develop across portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening and linger into the overnight hours as much colder air moves into the region behind the front.

- Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the front Sunday/Sunday night with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at times.

- Below average temperatures with lows in the teens and highs in the 30s will occur on Monday. Temperatures will quickly rebound to above average by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Looking at the latest satellite images and surface observations early this morning, showed a broad area of cloud cover moving east across the northern plans associated with surface low pressure and a trailing cold front approaching the Ozarks. Winds in advance of the cold front were from the southwest and were gusting from 20 to 30 kts. The cold front will move through the region today as the surface low continues its eastward trek.

A dry airmass will move into the Ozarks in the wake of the front with winds shifting out of the west and falling off to less than 10 mph as the pressure gradient weakens. The dry airmass will allow afternoon Relative humidity values to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range for portions of the Ozarks. This will allow for elevated fire weather conditions with potential for fire starts to occur this afternoon. With weakening winds however, fire spread will be limited.

Upper level ridging will occur across the southwestern CONUS into Saturday with the eastern periphery sliding over the region on Saturday. This will bring 850mb temperatures in the teens allowing for highs warming into the 70s. Southerly winds could gust to 20 to 25 mph at times on Saturday as developing low pressure in the central Rockies tightens the surface gradient once again.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The low mentioned above will begin to move into the plains during the day Sunday and bring a significant change to the regions weather Sunday night into the beginning of next week. Synoptic models and ensemble members are in fairly good alignment with the timing of the system for the Ozarks as it moves across the plains, tough the track of the low has some minor differences. The thing that remains very consistent however is the polar airmass that will bring a return of winter to the region Sunday night into early Tuesday morning.

As the storm system moves east, a cold front will move west to east across the area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front. Instability, will be a limiting factor in the development of convection however. Depending on the speed and timing of the front, changes the potential storm strength will occur. If the front is a little slower, instability may be higher and allow for a limited severe risk across the area mainly east of Highway 65. If the front is a little faster, instability will remain limited across the area and the better severe threat will be east and southeast of the area.

As the front moves through the region, a continued tight surface pressure gradient will remain with winds shifting out of the north and potential wrap around moisture moving across the regions cold air surges into the Ozarks. Models have been insistent in a change over to snow as this occurs. With highs Sunday in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, any snow that would fall as the precipitation transitions to frozen would most likely accumulate on elevated and grassy surfaces. Timing would likely be Sunday evening into night with light accumulations possible. Current guidance suggests a 40-50% chance for an inch of accumulation. The better potential for this would be across the northern portion of the Ozarks, from Highway 54 north. Still depending on the track, some accumulations may reach to the Arkansas line.

In addition to the cold and snowy weather, the pressure gradient will tighten brining gusty winds to the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with gusts of 35 to 45mph possible at times. This blustery weather will bring falling temperatures through the afternoon into the evening.

Colder temperatures will occur on Monday with morning lows in the teens to lower 20s and highs only warming into the 30s. Monday night lows will then again drop into the teens and 20s into Tuesday morning. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of next week with much above normal temperatures expected to return for the end of next week into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the area this afternoon through Saturday. A weak front is currently moving south through the area this afternoon. Southwest to west winds are occurring ahead of the front with winds becoming northwesterly behind the front. Winds will weaken this afternoon and evening. Winds will then become southeasterly tonight into Saturday. Winds will increase and become gusty on Saturday afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.