textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch is effect through 7 PM Thursday as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system.

- Pattern change incoming with high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. Patchy frost may occur Saturday and Sunday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An upper level low is currently located over Arizona and Utah early this morning. Ahead of the upper level low a front is located from western Oklahoma to the northeast into northern Missouri currently. The low will slow and the front will remain stalled in these locations today into tonight. Showers and storms developed from southwestern Oklahoma into northern Missouri along the front and these storms produced an outflow boundary which is currently moving south through the area early this morning. Showers and storms will continue to develop and move east/southeast through the area this morning. Severe weather is not expected this morning but some wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph could be possible with a few storms.

Moisture has increased across the area as dewpoints around 70 are in place across the area. Precipitable water values are around 2" across the area which will result in efficient rainfall rates with the showers and storms this morning. Overall this activity will continue to move steadily to the east southeast this morning, but localized training will be possible west of Highway 65 and north of I-44. The current activity should move south of the area by midday.

Clouds will remain in place through the day and will lower especially during the evening hours today. The upper level low will continue to slowly move east today and tonight so lift will occur across the area and some periods of light rain and drizzle will be possible this evening. Some weak instability will be in place this afternoon and evening, so a few isolated showers and storms will be possible but coverage in thunder this evening will be limited. With the increase in clouds temperatures will not cool much the rest of the day, and for much of the area will not warm much during the day today. Highs are expected to range from the middle 70s across the northern portions of the area to the lower/mid 80s across portions of south central Missouri today.

Tonight the upper level low will start to move more to the northeast and uncapped instability of 500 to 1300 J/kg will develop, especially west of Highway 65 tonight into Thursday morning. Instability will be weaker and not as deep to the east as these locations will be further from the upper level low to the west. As this occurs additional showers and storms will develop, and could develop into bands or lines and there could be some potential for training. The overall severe risk is low, with locally heavy rain the greatest risk tonight into Thursday. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible with any line segments that can develop tonight into Thursday morning.

An upper level trough will move southeast across the Plains on Thursday and will merge with the upper level low and will push a cold front east through the area Thursday into Thursday night. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along the front, though coverage in the activity could become more scattered in nature as the front moves east.

The Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday as multiple rounds of rain occur, the heaviest rain is still expected mainly west of Highway 65 and north of I-44. Where training of storms bands of 2 to 4" of rainfall with very localized amounts up to 5 to 6" still possible. Outside these bands rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 2" can be expected with the lower amounts more likely to the east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The upper level trough will continue to move south through the region on Friday with a cooler air mass moving over the area. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs in the 60s this weekend. Gusty northerly winds will accompany the cooler air mass on Friday, as gusts up to 35 mph at times Thursday night into Friday. Winds will gradually decrease Friday afternoon/evening as the trough moves off the southeast.

Lows Friday night in Saturday morning are expected to drop into the middle to upper 30s. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will range from the middle 30s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 40s across southeastern Kansas. Some patchy front could be possible both mornings in valleys and protected areas.

The ensemble model members show an upper level shortwave trough moving through the region Sunday night into Monday. A drier air mass will be in place so mainly just an increase in clouds will occur with the disturbance but a few sprinkles/light rain could occur but low chance (less then 15%).

A warming trend will occur early to middle of next week as highs warm into the 70s on Monday with highs in the lower 80s returning by mid week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to move east across portions of southern and central Missouri early this morning. An additional area of showers and thunderstorms have moving across portions of central Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas early this morning. This activity will also continue to move east and impact the TAF sites this morning. MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected with the heavier showers and storms this morning.

The activity should move out of the area this afternoon, through there could be the potential for a few isolated showers and storms to develop this afternoon, but coverage will be limited.

This evening into tonight IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the area. Lift will continue to move across the area this evening into tonight ahead of a slow moving system to the west. The lift and low level moisture will result in the potential for periods of drizzle or light rain to develop. Instability will also start to develop over the area tonight into early Thursday, which could also result in the potential for some scattered storm development.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089.