textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-60% chance of thunderstorms during the day Wednesday with a Marginal to Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph as the main threat. Marginal is for most of our area, Slight is mostly for areas south of Highway 60. Timing for the severe weather threat is 2-8 PM. - Temperatures climb this weekend into early next week with high temperature around 100F and heat index values of 100-105F possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

High clouds have moved in ahead of an MCV but temperatures have been warm still reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. Southeasterly winds have been light today staying under 10 mph. Dewpoints have been high once again in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. Mid-level clouds will start to flow in through the evening and tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A decaying MCV will move south out of KS early Wednesday morning just after midnight. There is the possibility of a few showers moving into SE KS/SW MO as the MCV dives south into central OK just before sunrise. Leftover boundaries from the dying MCV will push east through the day into an unstable (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moist atmosphere (dewpoints in the 70s), with 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35 kts. These leftover boundaries will collide with an incoming cold front that will round the base of a mid- level trough that's currently situated over the Great Lakes region. This will initiate showers and thunderstorms (30-60%) across the area in the afternoon and evening hours mainly from 2-8 PM. The area with the highest threat for severe weather will be south of Highway 60 near the MO/AR border as AR has the better environment with higher dewpoints and a stationary front hanging out over the central part of the state. Main threat is 60 mph damaging wind gusts, secondary threat is 1 inch hail, and there is a very low threat for a tornado or two. PWATs will be near 2 inches so any areas that see rain may see nuisance flooding as well.

There are still some uncertainties with Wednesday's forecast. Boundaries that move in off the MCV will dictate where storms initiate, high clouds may impact our instability, and if morning showers linger longer than anticipated this will keep us more stable. The timing of the cold front will also be a factor tomorrow.

The rest of the week into the weekend is forecast to remain dry. Looking ahead to the start of September, CPC outlook for the first week of September doesn't bode well for the folks who are eager for fall to arrive. The 6-10 day temperature outlook has a 65% chance for above normal temperatures (avg = 82-87 degrees) and equal chances to see above/below normal rainfall accumulation (avg = 0.73").

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A weak middle level system is currently moving over a weak surface front across southwest Missouri, bringing patches of low and middle-level clouds. Some stations in the vicinity of the front have briefly reported lowered visibilities as well. Confidence in extended periods of time of low visibilities at the TAF sites, though, is low. These conditions will continue for the first part of the TAF period, with winds generally calm and variable until the frontal boundary passes, bringing 5-10 kt northerly winds.

Later in the period (17-00Z), the front may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms near SGF (20-30% chance) and BBG (40-50% chance). The higher chances at BBG are reflected by the TEMPO in the TAFs. These storms could carry potential hazards of brief heavy downpours, microbursts with gusty surface winds up to 40-50 kts, small hail, and lightning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.