textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool temperatures through Friday with shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) ahead Thursday night through Saturday morning. Localized heavy rainfall is possible across west central into central MO, with a few instances of flash flooding.

- Heat is expected to return to the region on Sunday into early next week. Increasing confidence for highs in the middle 90s to near 100, with heat index values around 100 to 110 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today-Tonight: A weak shortwave translates through the region this morning and will interact with a band of frontogenesis north of the surface warm front. This area is the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms developing to our northwest, with CAMs suggesting this activity slides into the area later this morning. In general, a weakening trend is anticipated with the extent of PoPs (20-40%) limited to along and west of Interstate 49. As mentioned, the extent of coverage and translation further east will be inhibited by minimal instability. Expect dissipation to occur through the early afternoon, with many locations east of Interstate 49 remaining dry through the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, clouds linger over the area and will keep it quite cool for late July. Highs this afternoon are progged to reach into the lower 80s (east) to middle/upper 80s (west). This may even be too warm if cloud cover remains extensive in coverage.

As we progress into tonight, additional shortwave energy ejects out of the central Plains. The aforementioned surface warm front lifts closer to the Ozarks overnight tonight into Friday morning, with a 20 to 30 knot low-level jet veering into the region. This will support ample moisture influx, with PWATs climbing to near the 99th percentile at 2.0 to 2.1 inches. This sets the stage for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Friday, with the highest chances (40-70%) focused across west central into central MO. There is still some lingering uncertainty on the extent of coverage and exact corridors of potential heavier rainfall amounts. However, the latest trends suggest the greatest potential for any training of thunderstorms will occur along and north of Highway 54. This area appears to see the greatest instability, with convection taking on a northwest to southeast orientation. This setup would support localized heavy rainfall amounts and a few instances of flash flooding. Confidence in flash flooding remains low to medium, with uncertainty in the mesoscale influences. The latest HREF highlights a corridor of localized higher amounts possible, generally limited to 1 to 2 inches. Given the environmental background, WPC has kept the Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook in place over west central into central MO. This is an adjustment north from previous forecasts. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to persist across portions of the area on Friday, before dissipating south and east into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Saturday-Wednesday: Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms taper off to the south and east on Saturday, with a ridge quickly rebuilding to our west. This will support increasing mid-level heights across the area, with highs varying from upper 80s (east) to middle 90s (west). This will be accompanied by increasing dewpoints and humidity.

Ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement that the next potential heat wave really takes shape on Sunday into early next week. This can be gleaned from a shrinking interquartile spread, with highs progged to range from middle to upper 90s, with 100s across southeast KS into far southwest MO. The eastern portion of our area look to remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge through early next week, which will keep them slightly "cooler". Nonetheless, these temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees above normal for our area in late July. Meanwhile, heat index values appear to be in the 100 to 110 degree range, though some lingering uncertainty still exists on how well we mix each day in addition to existing variance in dewpoints ranging from 60s to 70s. As we progress through the end of the week into the weekend, we will need to address the potential for heat headlines going forward into early next week. Rain chances remain minimal (< 10%) during this timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A quick moving system slides through the area on Thursday. This will support low rain chances (10-30%) to KJLN and perhaps KSGF on Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A PROB30 group captures this potential at KJLN. Meanwhile, mid to high level clouds accompany this system on Thursday. Light east winds at 5 to 10 knots through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.