textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible (50% chance) in southeast Kansas around sunrise tomorrow morning.

- After briefly cooler temperatures tomorrow, temperatures warm to above average late this week and through the weekend.

- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will continue into the middle of February.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Synoptic Overview:

The U.S. is pretty well split by a deep low pressure system over the northeast and a high pressure center over the southwest, leaving the Ozarks in the middle to experience north/northwest flow through after the front moved through this morning, allowing the sunshine to counteract the northerly flow and warm us up into the 40s today. This will aid in continued snowmelt. Lots of grass is beginning to peek through!

Some weak low pressure in the central Plains and an associated stationary front will eventually make its way down, bringing some broken low cloudcover tonight. Unfortunately, with a north wind all day today and through the overnight, it wont be enough to keep us as warm overnight as last night. Lows tonight will be in the mid to low 20s. No precipitation is expected with these clouds, as lift is weak and moisture return is even weaker. However, where the moisture is best, the HREF is indicating an up to 50% chance for visibilities <0.5 miles right around sunrise in our Kansas counties and area right along the MO/KS border. Forecast soundings indicate that the NAM is really the only model supporting this, and with all the other indications that the moisture return will be subpar, I am inclined to disagree with it. But, the 40-50% chance may be worth mentioning though we are far from needing any sort of fog headline.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Well have one more cold day to make it through before winds shift tomorrow night and bring us warmer air. Before the trough fully leaves us alone, it will deepen just a smidge tomorrow and increase our north winds up to 10-12 mph. This will result in highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds cover will be thickest over the western half of the CWA given its proximity to the deepest energy, which helps that area stay a bit warmer overnight -- low to mid 20s compared to mid to high teens in the eastern half of the area.

By Thursday morning, the blessed high pressure system finally graces us with its presence, and winds shift out of the southwest. They get a bit breezy atop and to the northwest of the Plateau, up to 15-25 mph. Clear skies accompany this WAA to really maximize warming, pulling out highs up into the 50s for Thursday; Mother Natures gift to us on this years National Weatherpersons Day.

From here, we continue to sit on the eastern periphery of the incoming ridge for the rest of the week. Normal highs for this time of year land in the upper 40s to around 50., but we will enjoy highs in the 50s and 60s through Monday. The NBM has a 5-7 degrees range between the 25th and 75th percentile for our highs Friday through Saturday, but the entire range lies within the mid 50s to low 60s, indicating good odds for warm temperatures but medium confidence on exact values. Lows range from the high 20s to low 40s each night depending on cloudcover.

On the very fringes of the forecast period, it appears some low (~20%) PoPs begin to creep in as some shortwave energy rides across an inverted ridge. This solution is very inconsistent across the long-range models (the GFS brings widespread rain while the ECMWF brings only a little, for example). This next system may be the next target of opportunity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Conditions will begin VFR this afternoon with clear skies and northerly winds up to 10 kts. Clouds will move in from the northwest after sunset, bringing cielings lower over the course of the night, though mostly remaining VFR with the possibility of falling into high-end MVFR just under 3kft. Winds stay northerly but diminish over the course of the day.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.