textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures today with patchy frost potential tonight, mainly in valleys and low lying areas. Warming trend incoming with highs in the 70s and 80s for the weekend. - Chance for thunderstorms (40-70%) Friday afternoon/evening. SPC Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 out of 5) with large hail the main hazard.

- Another chance for thunderstorms (40-70%) returns Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thunderstorm severity remains in question.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to highlight a broad, positively tilted upper level trough centered from Minnesota to Colorado. Surface high pressure was sliding south into Colorado and Kansas. This was allowing for a cooler and drier airmass to continue to filter into the area with northerly winds. There remains some intermittent cloud cover from both high clouds streaming in from the southwest and a few cumulus from residual low level moisture.

Cool Temperatures - Patchy Frost Tonight: Dewpoints should continue to drop into the 30s this evening. As winds become light, temps should fall off quickly into the 40s overnight. The latest NBM continues to highlight temps falling into the middle to upper 30s by sunrise Thursday morning. This could lead to some patchy frost formation. The main limiting factor is cloud cover. While winds will go very light to near calm, there will be periods of clouds that stream through overnight, with potentially one batch moving through near sunrise. This could cause temps to bounce around overnight with some areas staying closer to 40 degrees. Those with sensitive outdoor vegetation should take proper precautions, especially areas that are more sheltered from the wind and area valleys/low spots.

Warmer Temps Thursday: Winds look to turn southerly during the day as the trough moves pushes east of the area. Latest HREF data suggests mostly clear skies with the exception of areas east of Highway 65 which may have just enough residual low level moisture for some cumulus. Temps will likely respond back into the 60s for highs.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night: Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest a positively tilted shortwave will drop southeast into the area late in the day Friday. This will drag a cold front into the area. Before then, gusty southwest winds are likely and will advect in warmer temps aloft. High temps in the 70s look likely.

The exact timing of the front is still in question however the consensus is that it moves into the area late Friday afternoon and sweeps through the area in the evening. Moisture quality is somewhat in question however the latest mean dewpoint forecasts suggest middle to potentially upper 50 dews could advect into the western half of the area before the front arrives. The current overlap of the greatest instability and wind shear looks to be over the western half of the area. Given the northwest flow aloft/positively tilted trough would suggest the potential for long/straight hodographs which would favor a large hail threat. The latest update from the SPC now includes a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms with this frontal passage. Continue to monitor future updates.

Thunderstorm Chances Saturday Night - Sunday: Another shortwave will quickly drop southeast into the area by Saturday night. This also looks to be positively tilted with another front dropping southeast into the area. The current consensus of timing for this front is later Saturday night which leads to uncertainty in instability potential for any severe threat. There is not any severe outlook for the area at this time however the CIPS analogs and CSU ML probs do support a severe risk just to our west across Kansas and Oklahoma. Therefore, given the timing of both fronts, this does not look like a washout weekend with the potential for a long period of dry time in between rounds. Highs on Saturday could reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, especially if clouds clear sufficiently. Sunday could be cooler with highs in the lower 70s.

Beyond Sunday, guidance continues to suggest a developing mid level ridge across the rockies with southwest winds bringing in warmer temperatures. There is the potential for temps to reach the 80s area wide early next week along with precip chances below 20 percent.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Drier air has moved in along with surface high pressure. This will bring mainly VFR conditions through the period along with a light and variable with through the night. With the high shifting out of the area on Thursday, southwesterly winds will pick up by mid morning with some gusts up to 20 kts possible.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.