textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms along and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor, and a Moderate (4 of 5) Risk clipping our northwest counties exists tonight.

- If supercells develop, Large hail to the size of tennis balls and tornadoes will all be a concern, especially west of I-49. Otherwise, a line of storms is likely with the primary hazard being damaging winds up to 70-80 mph, potentially higher within the Moderate Risk.

- Thunderstorms should move into southeast Kansas and western Missouri as early as 4-6 PM but more likely after 6 PM. Storms will then move southeast and reach the I-44 corridor by 8-11 PM. Storms should then weaken as they move southeast of I-44 after midnight, ending before sunrise Saturday.

- Flood Watch in effect Friday night for locations along and northwest of the Interstate 44 corridor. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely (>60% chance) with a few isolated amounts of 3-5 inches, especially in the Stockton to Truman Lake region.

- Much cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Low temperatures in the low to middle 30s Saturday night could cause frost formation.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

If you are looking for all the scientific jargon associated with the upcoming severe weather risk, you've come to the right place! Read this section. If you are looking for straight- forward what, when, where communications, check the "Short-Term" section above.

A deep trough axis currently stretches from Canada, down across the Rocky Mountain front range. An attendant cold front and banana low stretches from from east Minnesota down into south- central KS and into the panhandles. Along the cold front, a broken line of strong supercells has already developed from Minnesota down through Kansas and Oklahoma. Radar signatures already suggest very large hail occurring with these storms.

These supercells are expected to continue eastward. Of particular note, there is a cluster of supercells in southeast Kansas lifting northeast that may reach into our northwest CWA. If this occurs, the environment will be supportive of very large hail and tornadoes, potentially strong if they do occur. Our 12Z sounding was already juiced with 1750 J/kg MUCAPE, a pronounced EML with 7-8 C/km lapse rates, and a layer of dry air aloft. RAP analysis and short-term forecasts show 50-60 kts of effective 0-6 km bulk shear, defined by large elongated hodographs, basically straight west to east. This leads to the Large Hail Parameter at 18-22, which according to research, supports very large hail up to 3-4 inches. This threat is conditional of discrete supercells, which CAM guidance suggests would stay confined to our extreme southeast Kansas and west-central Missouri counties.

Due to the relatively straight nature of the hodographs, 0-1 km SRH is only around 50-100 m2/s2. As such, the current storms in Kansas have struggled to develop low-level mesocyclones. That said, the tornado threat is not zero, especially as the low- level jet ramps up across the same area as mentioned above. This looks to increase SRH to around 200 m2/s2 with STP values approaching 2-3. Therefore, a tornado threat also exists with the conditional supercell mode, with the reasonable worst case scenario of an EF2 tornado, given the environment.

Now that the conditional scenario has been discussed, the primary hazard looks to be very strong wind gusts as a cold front moves in with the shear vectors along the front being rather parallel to the flow. This should result in upscale growth of the current storms in Kansas to become a line. Strong shear, intense background wind fields, an axis of 3000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE, 20-25 C theta-e difference, and quite dry air above the boundary layer should allow for RIJs and bow echoes with strong downburst winds, potentially upwards of 70-80 mph. Some isolated winds above 80 mph would be possible where the axis of SBCAPE and Theta-E diff is located, generally along and northwest of a Fort Scott to Warsaw line. As the line moves southeast toward the I-44 corridor, nocturnal inhibition will slowly increase, gradually diminishing the line's intensity. That said, 60-80 mph will still be possible along and northwest of I-44, diminishing to 60 mph southeast of I-44.

Lastly, with the line oriented southwest to northeast and mean flow vectors east-northeast, some training of the line of storms is expected along and northwest of I-44. HREF LPMM amounts put widespread 1-2 inches in this area with localized amounts up to 3-5 inches. Given recent saturation across this same area, flash and river flooding is possible enough to warrant a few flood and river flood watches.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

If you are looking for the what, when, where communications for the upcoming severe risk, you've come to the right place! If you are looking for all the scientific jargon regarding the "why" of the severe risk, continue to the "Mesoscale Details" section below.

What - Enhanced to Moderate Risk for severe weather tonight:

Ample instability and shear are in place for widespread severe weather chances this evening into tonight, mainly along and northwest of I-44 where the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) to Moderate (Level 4 of 5) Risk exists.

The coverage and intensity of the hazards vary by geographic location from northwest to southeast. In general, the primary hazard is damaging wind gusts up to 60-80 mph across the area, particularly northwest of I-44. Secondary hazards include brief, spin-up tornadoes along the line, and a conditional risk for large hail up to golf balls to tennis balls if discrete supercells develop.

The primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds up to 70-80 mph (potentially higher northwest of a Fort Scott, KS to Warsaw line), generally diminishing as the line proceeds southeast of I-44. This is due to the primary expectation for storms currently developing over south-central Kansas to congeal into a line as it moves eastward. Due to the line spanning the large region, your chance for damaging wind gusts reach 45-59% within 25 miles of your given community along and northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach line.

Additionally, flash and river flooding will be possible along and northwest of I-44 where storms are expected to train a bit, putting down total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with localized amounts up to 3-5 inches.

When/Where:

The primary hazard is expected to be damaging winds up to 70-80 mph (potentially higher northwest of a Fort Scott, KS to Warsaw line), generally diminishing as the line proceeds southeast of I-44. This is due to the primary expectation for storms currently developing over south-central Kansas to congeal into a line as it moves eastward. Due to the line spanning the large region, your chance for damaging wind gusts reach 45-59% within 25 miles of your given community along and northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach line. The wind gust hazard has potential peak gusts at 60-80 mph northwest of I-44, then up to 60 mph southeast of I-44.

The secondary hazard of brief spin-up tornadoes exists across the whole areas as the line progresses west to east. The greatest chance, though, exists along and northwest of I-44 where better shear is in place.

Regarding the secondary conditional scenario, if supercells are able to develop, large hail up to golf balls to tennis balls would be posisble along with tornadoes. This conditional hazard looks most likely to occur in extreme southeast Kansas into west- central Missouri, generally between 4-7 PM.

Flash and river flooding will be possible along and northwest of I-44 where storms are expected.

Potential Impacts:

With the primary hazard being potentially destructive wind gusts, anywhere where the line produces 70-80 mph winds would allow for trees to be uprooted, branches to be snapped, power lines to be downed leading to power outages, varying structural damage to barns, homes, and businesses, and high profile vehicles to be at risk along the roads.

The secondary conditional scenario of very large hail and tornadoes would bring potentially life-threatening impacts, mainly structural damage as well as damage to crops, livestock, and any humans finding themselves outdoors in the storms. This is especially true given the strong wind threat, which could result in wind driven very large hail, which can do damage to siding and windows. Again, this is conditional of supercells developing, and would mainly be confined to extreme southeast Kansas and west- central Missouri.

Flooding, especially at nighttime, can make it difficult for drivers to see the depth of water. Any flowing water over roadways can sweep cars off the roads, creating life-threatening conditions. Some rivers are forecast to reach Moderate Stage along the Little Osage, Sac, and Marmaton Rivers. This would present potential impacts to roads and businesses.

After the line clears:

Temperatures behind the front will drop lows tonight into the 40s as gusty northerly winds advect in colder air.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After the main wave/cold front moves through tonight, the synoptic-scale pattern will consist of ridging and rising heights which will result in mostly dry weather through at least Thursday.

Before temperatures warm back up with ridging moving eastward, the cooler polar air mass will take hold of the area Saturday with highs struggling to reach 60 F amid strong cold air advection. The main surface high pressure center should then move directly across our area from northwest to southeast, decreasing winds and dropping temperatures into the middle to upper 30s. This would bring the potential for frost. Being the growing season, make sure to protect any plants Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Southerly flow then returns behind the departing high with the rising heights aloft. This will slowly warm temperatures back into the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday, and into the middle to upper 70s through Thursday. Lows will increase from the middle 40s Sunday night, to the lower 60s Wednesday night.

Our next chance of rain could be as early as Thursday (20-40% chance) as ensembles hint at the next trough moving into the area. There is some uncertainty on timing, however, with chances peaking more towards Friday rather than Thursday. Trends will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

For the 00z TAFS, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop into a squall line this evening ahead of a southeast moving cold front. Gusty southerly winds of 25 to 35 kts will occur ahead of the storms/front and become northerly behind the front. Within the storms, could get some severe wind gusts. Will have MVFR to VFR conditions ahead of the convection and MVFR to IFR within the convection. The main convection will occur between 01 and 08z. VFR conditions will arrive late tonight at BBG and towards morning at BBG.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>081-088>091-093-094.