textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and drizzle will continue across the area through this morning and could be patchy at times into this evening.

- A warm front will lift northeast through the area this evening into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and storms will be possible along the front. There will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms with hail the main risk on Tuesday mainly along and north of Highway 54. - Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday through this weekend. - Active pattern continues into the middle of March. There is a risk for multiple rounds of rain across the area this week and weekend. There will be dry periods. There will be the for isolated flooding and severe weather Mid-week and again late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

An area of showers continues to move east across the region early this morning as an upper level trough moves through the region. Cloud ice is decreasing from west to east this morning. Low level moisture and lift will remain in place through at this mid morning, so the rain will become to be more drizzle which will reduce visibilities at times this morning. The coverage in drizzle/light rain will develop late morning and afternoon but could be some pockets at times.

This evening into Tuesday morning a warm front will lift northeast through the region. The front will then stall over or just north of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak MUCAPE will be in place along the front as it moves northeast through the area Monday night. There will be a cap in place across southwestern Missouri Monday evening but will weaken across central and south central Missouri, allowing some scattered showers and storms to occur along the front. Some small hail (pea size) will be possible with a few of the storms, but no severe weather is expected Monday evening and night as instability and deep layer shear remain on the lower side.

Tuesday morning and afternoon MUCAPE and deep layer shear will increase along and north of the front. There could a few strong to severe storms along and north of the front mainly along and northwest of Highway 54 with hail up to the size of quarters the main risk Tuesday morning and afternoon. Most locations south of the front will remain dry on Tuesday.

Highs will range from the middle 40s across central Missouri to the lower 60s across far southwestern Missouri today as the front starts to lift northeast late today. Highs will warm into the 70s across the area on Tuesday south of the warm front.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

An upper level trough will across the region Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure will develop ahead of the low and lift northeast into northern Missouri with a cold front moving east across the region on Tuesday. Models continue to differ slightly on the exact timing of the front, the faster solutions have the front moving into the western portions of the area Wednesday morning and across the eastern portions of the area Wednesday afternoon/early evening. The slower solutions have the front moving into the area Wednesday evening and across during the overnight hours. A cap will be in place across the area during the morning hours, but will weaken as instability increases Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Deep layer shear will increase across the region ahead of the upper level low. The where be the potential for strong to severe storms along and ahead of the front on Wednesday. The risk would mainly be east of Highway 65 with the faster solutions and further to the west with the fast solutions.

Above normal temperatures will occur late week as highs warm into the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another upper level trough will dig into the southwestern U.S. late week and move across the region by early this evening. Another front will move east across the region Friday/Friday night. Instability and shear will support the risk for severe weather along and ahead of the front Friday into Friday night. Rain could linger into Saturday morning as the system moves across the region on Saturday. Slight cooler conditions will occur behind the front this weekend with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR ceilings with light rain falling across the area and breezy easterly winds gusting up to 25 knots. Rain will continue through this evening and overnight and will become heavier in the next few hours through 06z. This will lower visibilities and ceilings down to MVFR/IFR levels for tonight and into Monday morning. Easterly winds will stay gusty through tonight and begin to diminish by Monday morning. Once the rain clears out tomorrow, fog is forecast to form and keep ceilings at IFR levels for most of the day. Easterly winds will be light under 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.