textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible across portions of the area early this morning, however widespread dense fog is unlikely.

- Warming trend early this week, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. There is a 20-30 percent chance of rain on Wednesday mainly east of Highway 65.

- Cooler conditions will occur late week into early next weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s expected Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level ridge continuing to build over the Plains, with an upper low south of New Mexico. Observations as of 1230AM show a wide range of temperatures in the mid 30s to low 50s so far, which are expected to drop a few more degrees into the upper 30s to mid 40s. The lower end of that range will be over the eastern Ozarks, which could see some patchy frost in the valleys and protected areas over the next few hours. Widespread frost is not expected however, as temperatures will remain warmer than what's required to allow for frost. Patchy fog will also be a possibility early this morning, however observations have shown air conditions trending drier, with REFS guidance significantly lowering probabilities (only localized patches of 20-40% chances of visibilities <1 mile). We'll continue to monitor how things progress over the next several hours, however dense fog is not expected.

Otherwise, a warming trend continues today as the ridge builds, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. This is 5-10 degrees above the climatological normal for this time of year. Expect overnight lows to remain in the upper 30s (eastern Ozarks) to mid/upper 40s (increasing further west of Highway 65).

The aforementioned upper low to our southwest will continue sliding eastward on Tuesday, however guidance keeps this system south of our area, with no impacts expected. Highs on Tuesday will once again be above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

An upper level shortwave trough looks to slide southeast through the Plains and towards the forecast area on Wednesday, with an associated cold front pushing through. There's still model discrepancies regarding timing and potency of this system, however a drier airmass looks to dominate for much of the area as the frontal boundary pushes through, keeping things mostly dry. The exception lies in the east/northeast portion of the CWA, where better forcing and moisture exists, resulting in better precipitation chances (20-30%) and a few rumbles of thunder during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

The timing of the frontal passage will play a large role in Wednesday's temperatures, however as of right now, highs look to once again be in the mid 60s to low 70s for most ahead of the cold front.

Behind this system, cooler air will filter in, dropping temperatures a few degrees below normal in the 50s on Thursday, and the upper 40s to low 50s on Friday. The overnights will be chilly, with many locations dropping below freezing in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday and Friday nights.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites through the period. There is a low chance for fog, especially at KBBG beginning around 12Z, however probabilities have gone down since the previous forecast issuance, as observations have trended drier than anticipated. Otherwise, light winds will persist through the forecast period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.