textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue through the rest of this afternoon as a warm and dry air mass remain in place. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 mph with afternoon minimal humidity values in the 20-35% range.

- Light rain will move south through the region this evening and tonight. Rainfall amounts will be light, a trace to around 0.10".

- Cooler weather returns for the middle to end of the week with colder conditions this weekend. Wind chills in the upper single digits and teens will occur Thursday morning with single digit winds chills expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings.

- Gusty northwesterly winds will occur on Wednesday and again on Friday with gusts up to 35 mph at times both days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is currently north of the area across Iowa/Minnesota and will continue to move east today. Another trough will then move south tonight and through the region on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough a warm and dry air mass remains in place across there area. Mid level clouds are increase across the area from the north ahead of the trough, but mild conditions for mid January are still occurring even with the clouds. Temperatures are currently in upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs will continue to warm into the lower to middle 60s across much of the area this afternoon. A dry air mass is also in place across the area as humidity values will continue to drop to around 20% across south central Missouri and to around 35% across the northern portions of the area. Southwest to westerly winds with gusts up to around 15 to 25 mph will still occur at times this afternoon, but will start to weaken by early this evening.

The cold front will remain north of the area through the afternoon hours but as the trough starts to dig south this evening the cold front will move south and through the area overnight. Strong forcing will occur with the front and upper level trough. A dry air mass will be in place across the area with limited moisture return ahead of the front. Even with the drier air, the strong forcing will produce periods of sprinkles to light rain showers across the area from north to south this evening into tonight. The dry air will keep the rainfall amounts from a trace to around one tenth of an inch. Portions of central MO have the better potential for 0.10" of rainfall with far southwestern MO and extreme southeastern KS getting only a few sprinkles. The colder air mass will linger behind the system and temperatures will remain warm enough for all rain to to occur as the colder air moves in after the rain moves off to the south. Lows tonight into Wednesday morning will be in the middle 30s to the lower 40s.

Gusty northerly winds will develop late tonight and continue through the day on Wednesday with gusts up to around 35 mph at times especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. A colder air mass will advect into the region on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will likely occur closer to midnight tonight with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday morning and then may drop through the 30s during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A colder air mass will be in place across the area as lows drop into the teens Wednesday night into Thursday morning with Wind Chill Values in the upper single digits to middle teens occurring. Highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Lighter winds will occur on Thursday as high pressure will be over the region.

Near normal temperatures will occur on Friday as highs warm into the 40s. Gusty northerly winds will develop again, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph occurring again on Friday. A dry air mass will also remain in place even with the cooler conditions and could lead to some elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the area on Friday afternoon.

A colder air mass will advect into the region for this weekend into early next week as another trough moves south into the area. Highs in the 30s to around 40 will occur this weekend into early next week. Lows will drop into the mid teens to lower 20s Saturday morning then into the teens Sunday and Monday mornings. Wind chill values in the single digits will occur each morning this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Current radar imagery shows widespread very light rain dropping south through central Missouri along a cold front. This rain is expected to reach the TAF sites by 03-05Z. For the most part, the light rain should not impact visibility or cig flight categories. However, there is around a 15-30% chance for MVFR cigs and visibilities if an embedded shower briefly moves over the TAF sites. As the rain/front moves through, winds will shift from west-southwesterly to northerly, increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 20-30 kts, peaking between 15-21Z.

As the rain and front clears, some lower MVFR cigs are expected to develop at SGF and BBG between 10-17Z, with 20-50% chances of intermittent MVFR cigs at JLN. These should dissipate after 17Z to just a few cumulus remaining for the rest of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.