textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main risk.

- Slight (2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 PM this evening.

- Hotter conditions are then expected to occur across the area Sunday into next week as highs warm into the 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level high pressure system to our southwest over Texas and northern Mexico, with an upper level shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This has allowed the area to experience zonal flow, with an upper level disturbance continuing to make its way through the area during the early morning hours. At the surface, a surface low is currently situated over southern Kansas, with a frontal boundary extending northeast into northern MO. As the early morning hours progress, this low is progged to push east-northeast into the area, with a quasi-stationary front continuing through the morning and into the afternoon hours.

Taking a look at the Dual-Pol storm total precipitation estimates from the past 24 hours (which seems to match observations fairly well), so far the area has received widespread amounts of 0.25-1.5", with bands of higher rainfall. Portions of Crawford and Cherokee counties saw 3.0-4.5", with northern Greene county receiving 2-5" (localized areas just above 5" near Ash Grove).

Current radar as of 1 AM shows remnant pockets of showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 65, with additional showers and storms pushing in from the northwest into areas north of I-44. The atmosphere has been pretty worked over in areas that received the heaviest rainfall, leading to MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg lowering the rainfall rates for the stratiform showers and thunderstorms moving in from central KS and west-central MO. Currently seeing rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" per hour with that activity. Towards southeast KS, more elevated storms are beginning to push into the southwest CWA into an area with better instability (this area received less rainfall earlier, so the atmosphere is less worked-over). CAMs show these showers and storms continuing to push east through the area during the remainder of the morning hours.

Storms Redeveloping This Afternoon:

The previous thunderstorm activity from yesterday evening and this morning will aid in sparking redevelopment later this afternoon. Additionally, a 25-35kt LLJ will continue over the area, with dewpoints in the 70s providing sufficient moisture and lift, as well as 1250-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Shear looks to be fairly weak, generally between 20-30kts, so developing storms should be multicellular in nature (as opposed to supercellular or a more organized line). Current High-res guidance suggests these storms developing along the frontal boundary, generally along I-44 before pushing southeast. Damaging winds up to 60mph will be the primary threat, however IF storms can become more surface based, then a lower-end risk of a tornado or two couldn't be fully ruled out.

With the heavy rainfall experienced over the past 24 hours and the additional rainfall expected through today, the Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area until 7PM this evening.

Saturday:

Thunderstorm development on Saturday remains a question as midlevel heights begin to rise with a building upper level ridge. Remnant showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours, but this activity is expected to weaken as it pushes east and out of the area. A weak MCV pushing in from the High Plains could spark additional development in the afternoon, bringing a very conditional chance for a supercell or two to develop. If this can occur, all modes of severe weather would be possible, however confidence in this scenario is extremely low at this point. We'll need to monitor how the atmosphere can recover.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An upper level ridge will continue to build over the central U.S. on Sunday and remain over the area through next week as an upper level high builds underneath. This ridge will keep the upper level jet and storm track to the north of the area through much of next week, therefore no widespread rain chance are expected into the middle of next week. The upper level high will be over the area by the middle of next week and a few afternoon/evening pulse type storms may be possible. Late week the ensemble model members indicate that the upper level ridge of high pressure will try to push east some late next week. The ensemble model members do differ on just how far east the high moves east as some keep it over the region late next week. If the ridge can push further east, portions of the area could get in northwest flow, bringing some rain chances, however confidence in this is low as several members keep the upper level high over the area. Some pulse type storms would be possible late week if the ridge of high pressure remains centered over the area.

A warmer air mass will advect into the region under the upper level ridge Sunday through next week. 850mb temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 20s C. This will allow highs into warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s each day, with some middle 90s possible by the middle of next week as the upper level high moves over the region. Heat index values will warm into the upper 90s to around 100 to 105 degrees next week. The Heat Risks for heat-related impacts for the area based on the forecasted highs show the area reaching the Moderate to Major category next week. The NBM temperature range between the ensemble model members is low next week with a five degree spread from the upper 80s to the middle 90s next week, which leads to higher confidence in hotter conditions and a dry weather pattern for the region next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the entirety of the TAF period, with a few intermittent breaks throughout. MVFR to LIFR conditions will occur with the storms, as visibilities drop with the heaviest rainfall. Winds will become gusty primarily at KSGF and KJLN around 17Z, diminishing by 00Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.