textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) return tonight into Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. Damaging wind gusts near 60 mph is the main threat.

- Daily chances exist for showers and strong to severe thunderstorms through the weekend.

- Will have to monitor for excessive rainfall later this week into the weekend, especially where heaviest rain fell last week northwest of the I-44 corridor.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level ridging currently over the Mississippi valley into the OH valley and southeast U.S. An upper level low was over the central and northern high plains extending to the west into the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extended across the western Dakotas into western Nebraska with a dryline over western Kansas. Locally, stratus deck was over the western 2 tiers of counties. Temperatures were in the low 60s with dew points in the upper 50s.

Today/tonight: The upper wave will shift east into the plains today with the surface front shifting into central/eastern Kansas during the afternoon. ML CAPES ahead of the front in eastern KS should get into the 2500-3200 j/kg range this afternoon with 0-6 shear in the 30-40kt range west of our CWA. Supercell thunderstorms will be possible in eastern KS west of our CWA during the afternoon into the early evening with all modes of severe weather. By mid to late evening, a convective complex is expected to develop with storms forming into a QLCS. While a small tornado risk will be possible early as it moves into our far western CWA, the main severe weather risk late evening into overnight will be with damaging wind gusts as the linear thunderstorm complex shifts east/southeast through the CWA. Heavy rain will accompany the storms, however the line looks mostly progressive so there appears to be a minor flood risk at this time.

Friday: The main area of convection should come to an end Friday morning, but may refire over southern Missouri by late morning into the afternoon hours along the front or remnant boundaries. While the main severe risk will be further south in Arkansas, there will still be a wind risk with thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Friday night should be mostly dry with the main convection to our south and east.

Stronger west to southwesterly flow will begin to move into the area with an active subtropical jet on Saturday. Most of the focus for severe storms on Saturday into Saturday night will be near a warm front over the central into southern plains possibly moving into our southwestern CWA by early Sunday morning. While the main severe storms potential will be in Oklahoma and Kansas into Arkansas Saturday night, a few strong to severe storms may push into our southwest CWA by 12z Sunday.

Sunday - Monday: A stronger wave and surface cold front will push through with sufficient instability and shear for a severe weather potential over the area.

Heavy rain will accompany the storms late in the week through the weekend into Monday. A marginal risk of flooding exists where storms can train across the same locations, especially over our northwestern CWA which had the most rain with the previous events and where the soil moisture is the highest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For the 06z TAFS, some stratus over eastern KS will work into western MO and affect JLN overnight with some ceilings potentially into the MVFR catergory. Wind gusts could start to develop overnight at JLN up to 20 kts and at all 3 sites during the day Thursday ahead of the next system. Southerly winds may gust up to 30 kts at times. CAMS all show squall line developing late in the period and potentially making it to JLN by the end of the TAF period so have added a prob 30 group for this now, but have kept BBG/SGF dry for this forecast.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.