textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory across the area today. Extreme Heat Warning across the entire area Thursday through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110. Minimal overnight relief with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80.

- Low chances (10-20%) for a few isolated thunderstorms into central MO in the late afternoon and evening today and Thursday. Brief heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited across the area and most locations will likely remain dry.

- Potential heat relief for portions of the area by early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Through Tonight: Strong upper-level ridging is well-established across portions of the central CONUS, supporting a multi-day heat wave. 850mb temperatures around 24 to 26 C correlate to surface temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 in some locations. The run towards 100 is not typically realized on the spine of Plateau until the area dries out efficiently, and that seems to be the case as we progress through mid-Augusut. Heat index values are expected to range from 100 to 110 areawide, with the highest values off the Plateau. If there is any sense of relief, it is the breezy southwest winds in the afternoon's. Heat headlines remain intact, with an Extreme Heat Warning north and west of Springfield and a Heat Advisory elsewhere. An areawide upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning has been collaborated as we progress into Thursday through the weekend. More details on the prolonged heat later in the AFD.

Meanwhile, a subtle dip in the jet stream will may spawn a few isolated showers and thunderstorms near the area late this afternoon into the evening. This is captured with 10-20% PoPs across central MO through this evening, though the extent of coverage is expected to remain limited. Primary hazards would be brief heavy downpours and lightning, though a stray downburst remains plausible in this highly unstable environment. Most areas remain dry through tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Thursday-Sunday: The prolonged heat wave persists Thursday through the weekend, with the impacts of a multi-day heat wave compounding. This is well captured by the NWS HeatRisk, showing widespread major to extreme heat-related impacts. The extreme category is characterized by long duration of extreme heat with minimal or no overnight relief. Highs are progged to remain in the upper 90s to around 100, with lows in the upper 70s to around 80. With dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values remain around 100 to 110. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Thursday afternoon through Sunday evening. Any groups sensitive to heat, including the elderly and infants should take the proper precautions from the heat through the weekend. Stay hydrated and cool.

Otherwise, the jet stream primarily remains suppressed to the north of the area. A secondary shortwave slides north of the area on Thursday, with 10-20% PoPs glancing central MO once again. However, confidence remains low on this potential, with most areas remaining dry.

Next Week: Ensemble guidance is coming into a bit better agreement that a front gets into the area late Sunday into Monday. Depending on location and positioning of jet stream, this could support some relief from the heat. Early indications suggest a wide array of temperatures from south to north across the area. It is plausible to see middle to upper 90s south and upper 80s/lower 90s north. Thus, perhaps a brief in the heat for portions of the area, but not all. The uncertainty can be captured by interquartile spreads around 8 to 10 degrees for high temperatures next week. Additional rain chances (10-30%) accompany this pattern change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Scattered cloud cover through the period, with south- southwest winds at 5 to 15 knots, and occasional afternoon wind gusts at KJLN and KSGF up to 20 knots or so.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for MOZ070-071-081>083- 090>092-095>098-102>106. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.