textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 through the weekend. Occasional wind gusts of 20-35mph this afternoon and again Sunday.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with damaging winds the most likely hazard. A few separate rounds of storms are possible each day.

- Additional rainfall chances (20-30%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a broad west/southwest flow aloft over the central/southern US. Several shortwave/ripples in the flow were moving through the area. These shortwaves, along with a low level jet and plentiful moisture (PW value of 1.25in on the 12z KSGF sounding) aided in the development of scattered showers and storms earlier this morning. Temps early this afternoon were warming up into the 70s and 80s as clouds slowly begin to erode. At the surface, low pressure was developing across the lee of the Rockies with a front stretched northeast through Kansas into Iowa. We were in the warm sector with surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s.

Mostly Dry Conditions Tonight and Sunday: A slight mid level ridge/subsidence looks to slide into the area for the afternoon and evening hours. This will likely push rain showers out of the eastern counties with mostly dry conditions expected. A strong low level jet (50-60kts) looks to develop overnight across Kansas and Oklahoma and nose into northwest Missouri, impinging on the frontal boundary/instability gradient. Thunderstorms look to erupt up in that region. There are only a couple of CAMS that bring any of that activity close to Morgan county. Most of the guidance keeps all of that activity north of the area (I-70 corridor and north). We will monitor for any changes in these expectations but for now a mostly dry night is expected. A strong upper level shortwave trough will take shape across the western US Sunday with strengthening low pressure across southwest Kansas. The lack of forcing over the area should keep the area mainly precip free for Sunday. Thunderstorms do look to erupt across Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa Sunday evening however there has been a consistent signal that this activity weakens as it moves east and currently rain/storm chances late Sunday night remain less than 30 percent.

Warm and Breezy through Sunday: Residual clouds this afternoon will slowly clear from west to east with highs in the low to middle 80s likely. On Sunday, gusty south winds up to 35 mph are likely as the pressure gradient strengthens. Forecast soundings and HREF data suggest a cumulus field should develop over the area with daytime heating however highs should still be able to reach the middle to potentially upper 80s. See climate section below for details.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Severe Potential Monday and Monday Night: The strong shortwave trough will begin to take on a negative tilt as it moves into the Rockies and Central Plains. This is well west of the area however we are noticing some subtle shortwave energy that may move up the flow from the southwest from Texas into Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the day Monday. A 40-50kt low level jet will also be overspreading the area during the day. Therefore, while the stronger lift and front will be well west of the area, we are seeing signals of some potential for isolated/scattered thunderstorms that could develop over the area during the afternoon. 12z REFS guidance suggests mean SB CAPE around 2000-3000k/kg however wind shear looks to generally be less than 30kts during the afternoon. A sneaky afternoon strong to severe thunderstorm set up could occur if the lift does arrive and cause storms to initiate/break any capping inversion.

The more likely/higher confidence scenario is that an organized line of thunderstorms develops during the evening and overnight hours across Nebraska and Kansas, closer to the stronger lift/shear. This line of storms could then arrive after midnight, into the early morning hours Tuesday. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with this however will need to watch line segments/orientation for any tornado potential.

Severe/Flood Potential Tuesday: The early morning line of storms could create a messy/complicated setup for another round of storms as the front moves through the area during the day. Given the rather uniform wind profile aloft, it will likely take some time for the front to move through the area. Therefore if clouds can decrease and allow for sufficient destabilization, then severe thunderstorm development could occur during the afternoon and evening hours. One potential limiting factor to severe storms Tuesday is that the stronger lift could shift more north into the northern plains. If the lift remains farther south then that would allow a higher potential/coverage of severe storms. The flooding potential remains marginal given the relatively dry antecedent conditions of late along with lower stream flows. Confidence remains low in the overall severe potential for Tuesday.

Additional Rain Chances Mid/Late Week: Latest ensemble data suggests that the overall upper level pattern does not change much as the area remains in the west/southwest upper level flow pattern. The front that moves through Tuesday will likely lift back into the area and will serve as a focus for additional chances for showers and storms. While chances are currently only 20-30 percent, these could increase in future updates. The additional precip chances do look to suppress temps back down into the 70s for highs versus the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1057 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a low chance for showers through early afternoon, mainly at SGF. Clouds will begin to decrease late in the day however high clouds will spread over the area at times. Surface winds will remain out of the south with increasing gusts around 20kts this afternoon and again Sunday morning. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites overnight into Sunday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 16: KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.