textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 through the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms through this morning with highest probabilities (50-65%) over central Missouri.

- More widespread rain chances will develop over the area by late Monday into Tuesday night. Severe potential exists with this activity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Satellite IR and water vapor imagery this evening showed an overall southwesterly flow pattern over the Ozarks with surface low pressure located over the Oklahoma panhandle and a cold front from the surface low across western Kansas into Iowa where storms were occuring. Within the southwesterly flow, elevated showers and storms were moving across eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. Looking at the 00z SGF sounding, nearly the lowest 600mb were rather dry. This is expected to limit the potential for anything but scattered elevated showers and a few rumbles of thunder overnight.

The better convection potential will remain along the frontal boundaries north and west of the region as the low level jet strengthens tonight. CAMS develop a thunderstorm complex over northern MO and track it southeast late tonight into our northern CWA by early morning, 5 to 6 am. Energy from an upper level short wave moving out of the southwest is also expected to move into the area late tonight into Saturday. with this in mind, the remnants of a potential MCS may be able to make it into portions of central Missouri. Base on these factors, mainly general thunderstorms are forecast with the main severe weather risk remaining to our north. Storms late tonight into early Saturday morning in central MO may still pose an isolated wind risk up to 60 mph.

Around midnight, some very light elevated precipitation was helping to mix down stronger winds from the low-level jet nosing into southwestern Missouri. There were only a few lightning bolts with this activity, and the wind gusts were observed quite far from the radar echoes at times. Eventually, the precipitation disappeared, but the wind gusts remained. For this reason, we have issued a Wind Advisory for Cherokee (KS), Jasper, Lawrence, Newton, McDonald, and Barry counties until 7AM. This may be canceled early.

For most of Saturday and Sunday, the forecast is dry over the area as the upper trough out west deepens and the surface front remains to our north. By Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, storms should develop to our west and north. These may move far enough east to impact areas along and west of I-49 late Sunday night. Marginal severe weather appears possible with this activity, with damaging wind gusts being the primary risk with a linear storm mode. Synoptic winds are expected to become gusty Sunday into Monday with ensemble probabilistic data showing nearly 100% chance of winds gusting over 30 mph both days.

With southwesterly flow in place, warm air and moisture advection will keep at least partly cloudy skies across region as temperatures stay in the 60s at night and in the lower to middle 80s during the afternoons.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

On Monday, the upper trough begins to lift southeast across the Plains. Low pressure will deepen in the upper Midwest with the attendant cold front draping southwest. Prefrontal convection looks to kick off across the area as our daytime highs warm to the mid-80s convective temperature with ample moisture and instability. This activity makes up most of Monday's precipitation, with the best severe potential across the north and west due to closer proximity to the low-level jet, higher lapse rates, and more instability. SPC is using "outbreak" wording with this setup, though the higher risk exists northwest of our CWA at this time. Nevertheless, all hazards appear possible, even for us. Synoptic winds will also be gusty Monday as the approaching front causes the pressure gradient to tighten.

The front arrives Monday night into Tuesday, but passes slowly, perhaps even stalling at times. It will continue to bring a severe threat through Tuesday, as well as a risk for flooding due to the slow movement and potential for training. The front pushes the warm airmass we've been advecting in out, and areas west of 65 will only top out in the upper 70s for highs Tuesday while areas in the east will be several degrees warmer before the front reaches them.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday barely break 70 degrees with overnight lows in the 50s. PoPs of 20-40% linger through the end of the week, especially for the southern half of the area, as the front stalls out just south of the border. Ridging begins to move in once more by the end of the week, hopefully allowing for some warmer, drier weather for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

LLWS is a concern again tonight and tomorrow night with the low-level jet in such close proximity. Southerly winds sustained at 15-20 kts will gust up to 30 kts at JLN today and up to 25 kts for the rest of the area. Thunderstorms are expected across central Missouri this morning, but expect minimal impacts to the TAF sites. Scattered ceilings around 20 kft tonight, lowering to 10-15 kft for a few hours after 12Z at SGF and east as thunderstorms pass by, then becoming SKC after 18Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 16: KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ101. MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ088-093-094- 101-102.