textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory for portions of the area remain in effect until 8AM this morning. With the persistent cloud cover, confidence in widespread frost/freeze is low.

- Cooler temperatures continue this weekend, with higher potential for frost and freeze on Sunday morning.

- Warming trend returns early next week, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precip chances remain less than 15 percent through the next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 118 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Satellite imagery as of 1 AM shows a stratus deck continuing to drape across much of central and southern Missouri during the early morning hours. As suspected, this has hindered overnight temperatures from dropping further, with observations showing temps remaining in the mid to upper 40s so far. With lows expected to only drop a few more degrees as the cloud cover keeps insulating the night air (bottoming out in the upper 30s to low 40s for most), the Frost/Freeze occurrence this morning is less likely than previously anticipated. We'll continue to monitor how/if these clouds can begin to clear, however climatology would suggest they stick around through much of the remainder of the early morning hours. There have been occasional small pockets of clearing, which could result in some patchy fog as the early morning progresses if these pockets can grow and allow enough time for radiational cooling to occur. If this can occur, it'd be primarily over areas southwest of Springfield, however confidence remains low.

Otherwise, we remain under northwesterly flow aloft, as two upper level systems reside over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions and northwest Mexico. Clouds look to begin clearing by late afternoon/this evening. Depending on how early skies can clear will determine how warm we can get this afternoon. NBM interquartile spread shows pretty good likelihood of temps reaching at least the mid 50s. If clouds can clear faster, then the upper 50s will be possible for some locations.

Regardless, clouds are expected to clear by tonight, with surface winds remaining light/calm as surface high pressure continues over the region. This will bring the higher probability of frost/freeze to the region, with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Held off on issuing any Frost/Freeze headlines, as we first need to see how this early morning goes. If this morning's frost/freeze does not occur, then headlines will be on the table for Sunday morning. If they do occur this morning, then we'll be done issuing frost/freeze headlines for this growing season.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

As we head into the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week, northwesterly flow will continue over the region as an upper level ridge begins to build over the Plains. This will keep the dry conditions, with temperatures warming each day as midlevel heights rise. With only a 3-degree difference between the NBM MaxT interquartile spread, there's high confidence in afternoon highs climbing back into the 70s by Monday and Tuesday, which is 5-10 degrees above the climatological normal for this time of year.

More uncertainty exists midweek towards the end of next week, as an upper level shortwave trough slides across the southern CONUS while additional upper level energy pushes in from the north. There are discrepancies between ensembles regarding the track of these systems, which will influence precipitation chances (currently <15%) and temperatures. The NBM interquartile spread shows a 10-20 degree difference during this timeframe, leading to fairly low confidence in afternoon highs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 458 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

MVFR conditions will continue through the beginning of the TAF period at all sites as a stratus deck remains over the area. By 20Z however, conditions will improve back to VFR as skies begin to clear. Otherwise, surface winds will remain light and variable through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ066>068- 077>080-088>091-093>096-101>105. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ055>058- 069>071-081>083-092-097-098-106.