textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this evening and tonight. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts, with lower confidence in large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

- Cooler temperatures mid-week followed by a warming trend into the weekend accompanied by a drier stretch of weather through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances return on Sunday, with colder temperatures into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A surface low pressure center was sitting over far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri early this afternoon. A quasi- stationary front extended to the east-northeast toward the Great Lakes region, while a dryline and cold front extended southwest into the southern Plains. Aloft, a closed low was spinning over the desert southwest, preparing to shift east, leaving the forecast area under a broad open warm sector.

Near-Record Warmth Today:

With increased southerly winds and substantial warm air advection, temperatures will climb to unseasonably warm values this afternoon despite the expansive cloud cover. Maximum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will challenge daily records once again today. See the Climate section below for additional information.

Slight Risk of Severe Storms this Evening/Overnight:

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) across the entire forecast area for the potential of severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight hours. There are two (at least somewhat) separate mechanisms that appear to serve as the impetus for storm initiation across the forecast area.

The first and earlier risk will increase this evening as the aforementioned surface low and cold front in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri slink to the southwest as an upper-level shortwave trough ejects through the Great Lakes region. CAM output suggests a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong destabilization across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon ahead of the front. Initially, a strong capping inversion will prevent storm initiation, but as that cap erodes with daytime heating, storm development/intensification looks to occur rapidly. With a strengthening low- level jet coincident in both time and location of expected storm initiation, supercells will initially be possible. These supercells will be capable of golf ball sized hail or larger, wind gusts of 60 mph, and tornadoes. Given the current location of the cold front, these storms look to develop north of the forecast area. CAM guidance also depicts storm initiation just north of the forecast area across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas. However, with bulk shear vectors oriented largely parallel to the front, storms may quickly grow upscale into a more linear mode and clip the northwest portions of the forecast area as the front dips to the southeast. Should this scenario play out, damaging wind gusts of 60 mph would be the primary hazard. The flash flooding threat is low and conditional upon storms training over the same area. HREF LPMM output suggests a localized band of 1.5 to 2.5 inches will be possible where and if storms grow upscale into a line. Timing wise, storms look to fire across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas between 6 and 8 PM and move into our southeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri counties between 9 PM and midnight.

The second and more widespread severe risk will occur after midnight as the closed low across the desert southwest shifts east, increasing deep synoptic lift and forcing the dryline into the area. The extent and likelihood of the severe potential with this round remains less clear, however, as instability diminishes overnight. Notably, the 12Z SGF sounding revealed a deep layer of dry air between 850 to 500 mb that would need to be overcome today to support severe thunderstorms. Looking at upstream soundings, those profiles were more saturated this morning, suggesting better moisture return is on the way. The 00Z sounding will be telling, though, and should give us a better sense of the moisture quality across southern Missouri. All in all, while the severe risk may be more widespread overnight, it likely has lower-end potential than the evening risk across our northwest. While the severe risk may end sooner, general showers and thunderstorms may linger through the morning for areas east of the Highway 65 corridor on Wednesday.

Rain Ending and Cooler on Wednesday:

Rain may hang on across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri through Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. Otherwise, cooler air will filter in behind the front, with high temperatures near 60 degrees across western and central Missouri.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Elevated Fire Danger on Thursday:

A drier airmass will settle into the region on Thursday as high pressure overspreads the southern Plains. As a compact shortwave trough dives out of Canada, the associated surface low will increase the surface pressure gradient across the Ozarks and result in breezy winds. This combination of dry and breezy conditions will result in areas of Elevated fire danger on Thursday, particularly for locations that receive less rain from tonight's storms.

Next Chance for Precipitation Sunday Morning:

Dry weather will persist Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Beyond that, ensembles show general consensus in digging another shortwave trough through the Plains Saturday night through Sunday. This wave will provide the next-best chance for widespread precipitation for the area. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests differing solutions regarding the timing of this shortwave passage, which may influence precipitation type. Currently, the most likely solution favors the majority of the precipitation to fall during the day on Sunday, which would mean all or mostly rain. However, at this point, some light snow on the backside of the system Sunday night cannot be ruled out. These details will be better resolved in future forecast packages.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

MVFR ceilings are being observed across much of southern Missouri at the start of the TAF period. There were a few elevated weak echoes on radar this afternoon, but dry air aloft has and is expected to initially limit their growth.

A pair of passing fronts will provide chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing gusts up to 60 mph. Southwesterly winds will shift to the north- northwest behind the front Wednesday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KSGF: 80/1955 KJLN: 82/1972 KVIH: 85/1955 KUNO: 82/1995

March 14: KSGF: 82/1971 KJLN: 80/2002

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.