textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances remain low(15-30%) for Friday night into Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures into early next week and then warming back into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Upper analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper shortwave pushing into the area with a strong surface low over west central Missouri. Very strong southwesterly winds have moved in behind a dryline with wind gusts up to 40 mph so far in southwest Missouri. With much drier air moving in with the winds, RH values have dipped into the 20s and 30s so far early this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s to low 70s as of midday.

Rest of today and tonight: Red flag conditions will persist into the evening with the gusty wind of 30 to 40 mph continuing and RH values dipping into the teens to low 20s this afternoon with a slow recovery this evening. The very dry air and windy conditions will cause any fires to rapidly spread and a red flag warning remains in effect until 8 pm. Humidity levels only recover into the 50s-60s overnight, but the winds should diminish overnight as the low lifts off to the northeast. With the drier air in place, temperatures should dip back into the mid 20s in the west to the low 30s in the southeast.

Friday: Another upper level shortwave will approach from the west on Friday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler behind the surface low and front with highs in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Humidity levels do dip back into the 20s and 30s in the afternoon, but winds are not expected to be gusty like today which should keep fire weather in the limited category.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday: Shortwave energy will move across the area Friday night into Saturday, however moisture will likely be limited. GFS operational model looks like an outlier with moisture and precipitation compared with the global ensembles. Will keep pops in the low end(15-30%) with little to no qpf. Thermal profiles would be cold enough to support a rain/snow mix Friday night into Saturday morning with lows in the mid 20s north to mid 30s south.

Cooler temperatures into early next week: Behind the second shortwave, we get into more of a northwest flow pattern as a ridge out west begins to amplify. This will help to draw a colder air mass further south into the area over the remainder of the weekend into Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid/upper 40s in the south, while lows by Sunday night are expected to dip into the teens to low 20s. Some elevated fire weather conditions may develop again on Sunday with humidity levels dipping into the 20s and 30s with some wind gusts up to 25 mph.

Warming back above normal for midweek: rising heights and low level warm advection ahead of a frontal boundary will lead to temperatures warming back above normal into the 50s and 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will begin to increase Friday afternoon and evening. There is a 20-30 percent chance of light rain or light snow Friday evening however confidence is low on any accumulation and/or inclusion into the TAFs. Winds will gradually decrease overnight out of the west with 20-25kts dropping down closer to 15kts by Friday morning. A gradually turn from the west to the north will occur through the day Friday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.