textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the area through 7 AM Tuesday. Heat index values around 110 to 115 are expected.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect across the area from 7 AM Tuesday through 7 PM Tuesday evening as afternoon and early evening heat index values range from 100 to 110 degrees.

- Some rain chances (10-40%) will occur at times across portions of the area Tuesday into the weekend. There will be dry periods during this time and not all locations cloud be impacted.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A cumulus field is starting to pop up over southern MO this afternoon. The best instability will be over the south/east portion of the state, but dry air may limit any convection that attempts to form today. For any shower/thunderstorm that can sustain itself, it'll be very pulse-like and will not last very long. Biggest threats would be lightning and brief heavy downpours. As for high temperatures today, most of the area is in the low to mid 90s with daytime heating increasing those temperatures by a few more degrees before the end of the day. Most of the area is forecast to hit the upper 90s today with heat index values between 110 to 115 degrees with the hottest temperatures over SE KS/SW MO. Lows tonight will be warm and close to 80 degrees with mostly clear skies. Southwesterly winds will continue through the rest of today with another warm day expected tomorrow. Due to the persistent warm daytime and overnight temperatures, the Extreme Heat Warning has been extended until 7 AM Tuesday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

As mentioned, in the previous discussion, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through Monday night due to heat index values above 110 degrees. Highs will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, very similar to today. The dewpoints may be a bit lower by a degree or two tomorrow, but the confidence in that factor bringing down heat index values enough to just go with an advisory instead of a warning just wasn't there for us. Also, the heat related impacts will be the same either way. As soon as the Extreme Heat Warning expires on Tuesday morning, a Heat Advisory will replace it and continue through 7 PM Tuesday. Tuesday will be a bit trick on whether or not every county will still need a Heat Advisory. This is due to a few models showing a decaying system moving through our western counties on Tuesday. This would likely bring cloud cover and hopefully cooler temperatures and heat index values that wouldn't meet advisory criteria. However, not much rain is expected in our area due to dry air that will likely be in place.

The rest of the week looks a bit more seasonal for this time of year with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values in the 90s as well. There will be daily low-end rain chances through the rest of the week as the ridge begins to shift slightly off to the west and the trough that's currently over New England begins to dig and expand further west. This will allow for a few shortwaves to make it through the area and bring us 15-20% POPs. Friday is expected to be the best day for rain with POPs near 20-50% as a stronger shortwave moves over the eastern portion of the state. Areas east of Highway 65 have the best chance to see accumulating rainfall with amounts near 1". With the rain also comes a little cooldown with highs in the 80s going into this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR through the period with breezy southwesterly winds through the rest of today. Winds become variable overnight, then become breezy once again for Monday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.