textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary risk.

- Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM Saturday morning.

- Hotter and drier conditions will occur across the area Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Surface analysis reveals a low pressure center across eastern Kansas with a stationary front extending to the east across northern Missouri and a cold front to the southwest across southeast Kansas. Visible satellite imagery shows abundant cloud cover persisting across the region, likely acting to delay or lessen today's destabilization, but a few peaks across west- central Missouri are more apparent. Mid-level flow remains fairly weak, though a belt of moderately enhanced 850 mb flow is nudging into southern Missouri.

Slight Severe Risk this Afternoon into Tonight:

Scattered storms will initiate in the warm sector across central and southern Missouri throughout the afternoon with diurnal heating and the passage of transient mid-level shortwave impulses. There was a question of how much the cloud cover will affect destabilization, but a special 18Z balloon launch suggests ample destablization with minimal surface inhibition.

With sufficient destabilization, a few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging straight line winds will be possible. Forecast 0-3 km theta-e differences are forecast to be marginal (25-30 deg), so while most storms are expected to be sub- severe a few gusts of 60 mph may be observed given the notable lack of CIN. Deep-layer shear will be marginal for supercell development along an outflow boundary across southwest and central Missouri, but should they occur, a secondary risk for hail to the size of ping pong balls and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Confidence in these secondary hazards occuring is low at this time. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of the area in a Slight risk.

Areas of Heavy Rainfall and Flooding through Tonight:

Model PWATs are forecast to be quite high (1.9" to 2.2") with deep moisture convergence south of the aforementioned stationary front across northern Missouri. Resulting rain rates within the strongest storms will be quite high as a result, with hourly rates of 1.5 to 2.5"/hr. Both of the 12Z runs from HREF and REFS LPMM data depict two distinct pockets of higher rainfall totals: One across the eastern Ozarks due to training convection this afternoon and evening, and another across the four corners region with the potential for overnight convection along a convergent boundary with MCV potential. Forecast rainfall totals are generally between 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches as a reasonable high-end scenario. Current thinking is that the heavy rainfall amounts will not be as widespread as they were yesterday, but the high-end potential still exists given the likelihood of very high rainfall rates. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined an area roughly south of a Pittsburg, KS to Rolla line in a Moderate risk for excessive rainfall, with a Slight risk extending across much of the rest of the area. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended areawide until 7 AM Saturday. It's possible locations across central Missouri will be removed from the watch before then as their risk ends earlier.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Storms Linger into Saturday:

Hi-res guidance suggests remnant convection associated with an MCV may linger into Saturday morning, particularly across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri where a marginal wind and hail risk may become apparent. This activity will shift east of Highway 65 and into the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon.

Dry Weather Finally Returns Next Week:

Global ensembles show strong agreement in building a prominent ridge across the eastern CONUS on Sunday and keeping a fairly stagnant synoptic pattern in place through the week. This means warmer and drier conditions overall. Moisture will still be moderately high, so a few low-end rain chances cannot be totally ruled out if some weak shortwave disturbance or warm air advection regime moves through, but these will be the exception rather than the rule.

NBM percentile data show unusually small interquartile spreads (2-4 degrees) through next week, indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Highs in the low to mid 90s will be common, with daily heat indices in the low 100s. This may open the door to possible heat headlines in future forecast packages.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Scattered storms along an outflow boundary in southern Missouri to start the TAF period, with nuisance long flash lightning in the vicinity (truly VC) of KSGF within the first 30-90 minutes of the TAF period and redeveloping/training storms at KJLN. MVFR to IFR visibility with any heavy downpours associated with these storms, in addition to downbursts/strong winds as the storms collapse. Some hail will be possible in the strongest updrafts as well. Timing/confidence at KBBG is much lower, and would be much later (closer to 04-06Z).

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.