textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph. Quarter- sized hail is a secondary hazard.

- A Marginal (1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Risk for localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding this afternoon through tonight.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) Friday. Details on locations, coverage, and hazards are uncertain at this time.

- Heat persists Saturday through early next week with increasing confidence in multiple days of Heat Index values approaching 100-105.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

This Afternoon-Evening: Overnight and morning convection has gradually diminished across portions of central MO early this afternoon. There is still some remnants that continue to fester along the established cold pool and associated outflow boundaries. If this activity maintains itself, it will build into portions of south central MO through the afternoon. Confidence is relatively low that at maintains beyond early afternoon.

Meanwhile, a cap is in place across portions of the area, though will gradually diminish this afternoon. Where thunderstorms do develop, the environment will be favorable for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Though not a true pulse thunderstorm environment, the Ozark Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index (OPSTI) highlights favorable lapse rates in the vicinity of ample instability (2000-3000 J/kg). Deep layer shear remains weaker around 20 to 30 knots, though may support a few organized updrafts. Given this environment, any thunderstorms that become established pose the risk for damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to quarters. However, it is worth noting much of this activity will be isolated to scattered in nature through this afternoon and evening. PoPs are capped off around 30 to 50%, primarily tied to peak diurnal heating. A few instances of localized heavy rainfall may accompany this activity.

As for temperatures, there will be quite the variance from west to east, with highs in the middle to upper 90s across southwest to middle 80s to the northeast as a result of lingering clouds/precipitation.

As we progress into tonight, the low-level jet enhances to 25 to 30 knots and overrides the frontal boundary stalling into southeast KS and central MO. PWATs around 2 inches or higher will continue to support efficient rainfall rates as an area of showers and thunderstorms develops across eastern KS. While an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm remains plausible overnight, the general confidence is low. The primary storyline becomes localized heavy rainfall as thunderstorms train over the same areas. The latest CAMs, including HREF and RRFS LPMMs highlight portions of southeast KS into southwest MO. In general, most locations will remain around a quarter to a half inch of rainfall through tonight, with localized higher amounts of 1 to 3 inches. Some locations remain completely dry, with the highest PoPs (40-70%) focused across southeast KS into southwest MO, or generally along and west of Interstate 49. A scenario to monitor, is minimal coverage through tonight if mid- level forcing/ascent is displaced from the front. This trend will need to be monitored as we progress through the short-term.

By Friday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing. There is still uncertainty with regards to the exact location, timing, and coverage of additional showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening. From an overview, the environment will support at least scattered thunderstorms chances (20-40%) in the vicinity of the front. The latest trends would suggest along and south of Interstate 44 for frontal positioning on Friday, and will ultimately drive the best chances. While uncertainty lingers in Friday's coverage, there is a consensus for activity to diminish into Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Saturday-Early Next Week: Increasing mid-level heights into this weekend as a longwave trough axis shifts east of the region. This will allow temperatures to warm into the 90s, with some locations even pushing near 100 in far southeast KS and southwest MO. Dewpoints into the upper 60s and lower 70s, will support daily heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees. LREF continues to suggest low probabilities of exceeding 105 in our area, with chances limited to around < 10%. Nonetheless, it is plausible headlines may need introduced as a result of the multi-day aspect of the heat. As we progress through the weekend into early next week, the NWS HeatRisk depicts widespread Major (3 of 4) for potential heat- related impacts.

Rain chances appear to be low through this period, though not zero as we remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Any subtle breakdowns in the ridge may allow shortwave energy to translate through the area. By mid-next week, ensembles are beginning to hint at the return of an active pattern as the ridge becomes displaced back west.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

An area of showers and storms continue to move east/southeast across portions of southern Missouri early this evening. This activity has pushed south of the KSGF area but the KBBG could still be affect early in the TAF period. The activity could linger across portions of south central Missouri through 03Z but should start to dissipate/move out of the area by late this evening.

Additional shower and storm develop will be possible overnight but the better potential will be west of the area and if convection can develop overnight into Friday morning coverage will likely be limited so confidence in low the TAF sites will be impacted.

Additional scattered storms will be possible late in the TAF period and just beyond Friday afternoon and evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.