textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. (highest chances south of I-44). Marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

- Moderate to high rain chances Thursday through Saturday. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flooding for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a blocking pattern over the CONUS with a strong upper low over the western US with a strong high off the Atlantic. Additional shortwave energy was sliding southeast through the Great Lakes. The central US was stuck in between with an elongated shortwave over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. A large area of low/mid level moisture continues to stream north from the Gulf. The 12Z KSGF sounding measured a PW value of 1.37in with higher values south of the area. A surface low was located over northeast Texas with a front stretching into Arkansas. Low clouds continue to scatter out with temps slowly climbing through the 70s.

This Afternoon through Tonight: With the lift to the west and a front south of the area, higher rain chances should stay south of the area through the afternoon and evening however locations south of I-44 will have a 20-30% chance of isolated showers and storms that can develop in a moist airmass. Temps should be able to reach 80 degrees across many areas, especially north of I-44 where clouds will be less.

Through the night, the surface low looks to slide north into southeast Oklahoma. A band of showers and isolated storms looks to develop south of the area and pivot north into Missouri overnight. Latest forecast PW values from the RAP suggest an increase closer to 1.75inches. This will allow for efficient rainfall rates in scattered cells. Latest HREF PMM suggests localized rainfall amounts up to one inch overnight, especially southwest of Springfield.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Moderate to High Rain Chances Thursday through Saturday: The pattern remains fairly stagnant for Thursday and Friday with an elongated vort/shear axis near or right over the area. The mean flow is very weak with 0-10km winds less than 20kts out of the south on Thursday. The surface low looks to very slowly slide north into eastern Oklahoma through the day. An axis of higher moisture and precip chances looks to set up within this southeast to northwest mean and moist flow. Latest HREF paintball plots showing a decent consensus of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through the evening across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, especially southwest of Springfield. Latest HREF PMM is showing localized pockets of 2-3 inches with this round. Therefore we will need to monitor for localized flooding. If confidence in this area increases or if qpf increases then a small flood watch could be needed. Temps on Thursday will likely be held down into the 70s given the extensive clouds/precip.

The surface low and lift slowly moves east on Friday however it looks to remain right over the area therefore another round of showers and storms is likely. Rainfall amounts from this round are a bit more uncertain and will need to hone in on latest high res trends. Given the high moisture content and weak mean flow, localized flooding will again be a concern. The lift begins to shift even further east on Saturday however it looks to remain close enough to continue rain chances, however chances are lower than the previous two days.

Decreasing Rain Chances Sunday through Tuesday: A recent trend in ensemble guidance suggests that the upper low out west will begin to lift north towards the northern plains. This would promote rising heights and decreasing rain chances for the area. This would also support warming 850mb temps and therefore warmer surface temps.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Showers will become more prevalent through the TAF period as an upper low moves toward the area. Thunderstorms will also be possible (about a 30% chance) at times through the TAF period, with the greatest chances Thursday afternoon and evening. Flight categories will vary due to showery nature of the convection, but will trend toward MVFR conditions with time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.