textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with below-average temperatures through at least early Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

- Widespread precipitation chances (70% to 90%) arrive late Friday and persist through the weekend. All rain is favored across most of the area, but wet snow may mix in across the eastern Ozarks late Friday into early Saturday.

- Below-average temperatures are likely to continue into early December.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level low approaching the Great Lakes region, with the associated surface low dragging a cold front that pushed east of the forecast area late yesterday evening. The pressure gradient remains tightened over the area, which has led to the higher gusts continuing. Observations overnight have showcased gusts ranging between 20-30mph, with some localized higher gusts up to 35mph. As the low continues making its way eastward through the Great Lakes and the trough continues pushing away from our area, winds will begin to diminish slowly throughout the day before becoming light once again later this evening and tonight.

The aforementioned cold front that swept through the area ushered in a cooler airmass, with observed temperatures in the mid to upper 30s so far during the early morning hours (as of 2 AM). As the early morning progresses, we'll see a temperature drop of a few more degrees, with most locations hovering around the freezing mark before/around sunrise.

With surface high pressure overspreading the Plains and the northwesterly flow aloft remaining over the region, sunny skies will return to the area once again. Despite that, today will be fairly chilly, with high confidence in afternoon highs remaining in the low to mid 40s.

The cold will continue through at least the Thanksgiving holiday, with overnight lows both tonight and Wednesday night dipping into the 20s and low 30s. Temperatures on Thursday will be slightly warmer than today, however they'll still remain in the mid/upper 40s (most of the area) to low 50s (towards the MO/AR border).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

As we look towards the holiday weekend, ensembles have consistently depicted an upper level trough developing over the western CONUS and digging into the Plains by late week/early weekend. An associated surface low is progged to develop over the Plains, with a warm front lifting over our area. This will bring an end to the dry weather as moisture returns to the area, with NBM probabilities ranging between 70-90% Friday night through Saturday.

The big-picture forecast looks fairly on track from previous forecasts, with continued agreement between models placing much of our area in the "warm" sector, with temperatures above freezing and the colder temperatures over northeast Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa. As such, the most likely ptype scenario remains: all rain across southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas, snow favored across northeast Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa, and a rain/wet snow mixture in between. This would lead to the mixed ptype potentially over parts of the eastern Ozarks. That being said, latest NBM probabilities of 24-hour snow >0.1" did increase from the previous forecast, now showing a 30-60% chance over the eastern Ozarks. Jumping up to the probability of >1", NBM shows less than 15% chances.

Despite the greater consistency between ensembles, there remains uncertainty regarding Sunday, as some guidance suggests wrap- around precipitation affecting the area. If this were to occur, more of the area could experience mixed wintry precipitation. Confidence remains low at this point, so we'll need to continue watching trends through the week. Regardless, those traveling during the holiday weekend should begin preparing now for potential wintry impacts, and keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to this timeframe.

Heading into next week, below- normal temperatures will continue to be possible, with highs ranging in the 30s for Monday and into the 40s through midweek. There remains an 8-12 degree difference between the NBM interquartile spread, so we'll have to see how much of the cold air can infiltrate the Ozarks with a secondary upper level trough progged to push through the CONUS. We'll also need to keep an eye on precipitation chances with this system - as it stands, large uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude remain, which would largely influence precip chances, temperatures, ptypes, etc. We'll continue to monitor how models handle this system through the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

For the 18z TAFS, mid and upper level moisture will start to increase late this afternoon and overnight, but forecast soundings show fairly dry low levels continuing. We are expecting VFR ceilings from late this afternoon through around 14z on Thursday with a clear sky thereafter. Some northwest wind gusts up to 20 kts will be possible this afternoon before becoming light and variable early this evening as surface high pressure moves into the area.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.