textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s to around 80.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Sunday afternoon and evening for portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Heat persist today very similar to the last couple of day, including the extreme heat warning.

For Sunday, a shortwave and cold front look to move into the area Sunday afternoon and evening, sparking thunderstorms with a marginal severe risk. HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/kg is shown, along with 0-6km bulk shear of 20-25 kts. Mainly looking at a 60 mph wind threat in small clusters of storms. Location for severe storms (and greater convective coverage in general) will be over the central and eastern CWA (see SPC outlook).

Otherwise, Sunday will be a little cooler over the far northern CWA with highs in the low to mid 90s and max heat index around 100. The rest of the area will be similar to today and the last couple of days, until local thunderstorms/outflow develops.

Isolated to scattered convection may linger through Sunday night, but is not expected to be strong overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Northeasterly flow will knock temperatures down on Monday with highs in the mid 80s (max heat index around 90) northeast to the mid 90s (max heat index around 100) southwest). However, convection over the southern CWA may lead to changes in these temperature expectations.

Warmer Tuesday with the return of southerly flow. Look for highs in the low 90s to around 100 (warmest southwest) with max heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Wednesday may be a couple degrees warmer. However, NBM spread is pretty high so expect changes to these forecasts.

Look for a 30-40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday night as a cold front passes through, followed by potentially cooler weather late week. Models show a temperature gradient just to the southwest, so the forecast may change substantially with small shifts in guidance, but we are currently shown by ensemble means to be on the "cold" side of the gradient. This puts the highs in the mid 80s northeast to the mid 90s southwest in the official forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.