textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s elsewhere into the weekend. Heat indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of Springfield.

- Marginal risk for severe storms northwest of Springfield late tonight into Saturday morning. Periodic, scattered rain chances (20-40%) will then occur on a daily basis Saturday through early next week. Many locations will remain dry.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The region remains influenced by a lob of the high pressure over the Great Lakes region. Some cloud cover was moving over the Ozarks from a storm complex moving across Kansas early this morning. Rainfall from this system is expected to remain mainly west of the Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas, though some locations may see a shower or two from Pittsburg kansas to Joplin and west but most areas will remain dry.

Today should see a slight increase in high temperatures compared to yesterday, especially southwest of Springfield where a few locations could approach 100 degrees. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will keep heat indicies generally at or below 100 degrees. An increase in mid and high clouds should arrive by late afternoon and evening as another disturbance moves down towards the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper level pattern is forecast by the synoptic and ensembles to be stuck in a western ridge, eastern trough with the Ozarks under the influence of upper level northwesterly flow and on the northeast periphery of the ridge. While this pattern can be dry, any disturbances that slide down and over the region can bring occasional rain chances.

One such disturbance is expected to move over the Ozarks late this evening into early Saturday. NBM precipitation chances have remained in the 20-40% range with the main uncertainty on rain placement. The SPC has included the far northwest portion of our area in a marginal risk for late tonight into Saturday morning, though the latest outlook pushed the Marginal risk a bit to the north. Confidence is pretty low with system and additional updates are likely. Ensembles suggest additional shortwaves dropping down Sunday through Wednesday which will keep daily rain chances going, albeit on the low side of probabilities.

The one thing that is expected to continue despite any rain chances is the summer time heat. Thank to this, and the limited rain over the past 1 to 2 weeks, increasing drought (D0 and D1) occurred this weak. This potential, flash drought, may aid in highs reaching into the 90s across most of the area this weekend into early next week. Locations west and southwest of of Springfield will be the hottest with highs around 100.

There will be the need to keep an eye on afternoon mixing since this could/should keep heat indicies below 100. However if we start seeing higher values then heat headlines could return, especially given the prolonged nature of the heat. The Heat Risk tool does show pockets of the major category across the far southwest corner of Missouri this weekend into next week. The latest CPC outlook for late August into early September favors lean in the chances towards above average temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The region will see mainly VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. There is the potential for a few showers that may move near the KJLN terminal through the day but coverage and confidence kept mention out of the forecast. This may need to be amended as the day goes on depending on how the atmosphere develops.

Winds will be light with only a few to scattered middle to high clouds moving over the region.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.