textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered storms will continue along and southeast of I-44 this rest of the overnight hours. The storms will continue to end from from northwest to southeast this morning. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk, though an isolated strong storm with hail up to the size of dimes may occur.

- Drizzle and areas of fog will be possible after the heavy rainfall ends early this morning.

- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be be possible from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There will the potential for hail to the size of two inches, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a tornado risk with this activity.

- Another system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An area of showers with scattered thunderstorms continue to move east across the area, generally east of an Anderson to Springfield to Camdenton to Eldon Missouri line early this morning as an upper level trough moves east through area. A front remains located across northwest Arkansas across southern Missouri this morning, generally near I-44. There could still be some small hail and maybe a strong storm over the next few hours but instability has decreased and the overall severe risk is decreasing for the risk of the night. Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the storms overnight, but the thunderstorms are becoming more scattered in nature so the heavy rainfall will be more localized the next several hours. There could still be some localized flooding where heavy rain takes over locations that got the heavier rain on Wednesday.

The showers and scattered storms will continue to slowly end from northwest to southeast this morning and should be out of the area by mid day, if not sooner. Behind the rain tonight, some fog and drizzle will be possible in the mid morning hours today there could be some potential for some pockets of dense fog at times.

The warm front will lift back to the north this afternoon and evening. There could be some scattered showers and storms along the front and the front should move north fairly quickly as an upper level tough digs into the southwestern U.S. and brings southwest upper level flow to the area. Better coverage could occur across east central Kansas and far western Missouri as the front could linger slightly longer there. Highs will range from the upper 60s across the north to the low to middle 70s across southern Missouri this afternoon as the front moves north through the area and a warmer air mass moves into the area.

Highs will warm into the middle to upper 70s on Friday. A cap will be in place across the area on Friday but the cap will start to weaken from west to east late Friday afternoon/evening into the overnight hours. It is possible some elevated isolated storms can develop Friday afternoon across the area there could be a hail risk with this activity. A dry line will push east across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma Friday afternoon/evening. As the cap weakens scattered storms will develop on the dry line and lift northeast and could push into extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Friday afternoon into the evening hours. MLCAPE will increase along with develop layer shear ahead of the storms Friday afternoon evening and will support the storms be supercells in nature. All severe hazards will be possible with this activity which include, hail up to 2", 70 mph damaging winds, and lower level shear will also support the risk for tornadoes with this storms too. The supper cell risk will generally mainly be along and west of I-49 but could move as far east of Highway 65. As the upper level trough moves east into the plains a cold front will sweep east and move across the area Friday night. A line of storms will develop along front and move across the area. Instability and shear, including strong low level shear, will support a severe risk across the entire area with the line of storms Friday night into Saturday morning. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of ping pond bands and embedded spin up tornadoes will occur with the line of storm. Locally heavy rainfall will also occur with the storms, the supercells will be scattered in nature and the line of storms should move quickly to the east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The cold front will push off to the east on Saturday. There could be some linger showers and maybe a rumble of thunder Saturday morning before the system moves off to the east. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday and the 60s on the Sunday with mostly dry conditions after any lingering rainfall ends Saturday morning.

The front will lift back to the north on Monday there could be a few showers and storms on the front but coverage will be limited. Highs will return to the 70s early next week. Another system will move across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The ensemble models continue to differ on the exact track and timing of the system and the placement of the front. Moisture will increase back to the north and there could be the potential for strong to severe storms, be the details will be dependent on the exact track and timing of the system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 441 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Showers and a few storms will continue to move across south central Missouri early this morning, this activity could clip KBBG early in the TAF period. Some areas of fog will be possible this morning after the rain ends, with IFR to LIFR conditions possible. Light winds will occur this morning.

The warm front will lift north through the area today and this evening. MVFR ceilings will occur this afternoon and should improve this evening. Southerly winds will occur south of the front today and could become gusty at times this evening and tonight ahead of a system that will impact the region Friday afternoon and night.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.