textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the area this afternoon into the evening with rain and drizzle overnight into Monday.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the week into next weekend.

- Active pattern continues into the middle of March. There is a risk for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Split flow evident in the water vapor and upper level analysis with an active southern stream extending from the low off the California coast through the Rockies, southern and central plains into the mid and lower Mississippi valleys. The northern stream jet axis was well to the north along the U.S. Canada border. Scattered convection has developed from late morning over eastern KS into Oklahoma lifting northeast in advance of shortwave and upper jet energy and within an area of marginal MU CAPES. Some thunderstorms with sub-severe hail will be possible within the area of elevated instability. The surface cold front has shifted south into Oklahoma and Arkansas with a cooler shallow air mass in place over the area. Low level moisture is overrunning the shallow cold front with southerly winds above the front.

Rest of this afternoon and into the evening: Convection will increase in coverage this afternoon, especially over the western CWA as the shortwave and jet energy move in from the west. Embedded thunderstorm activity will likely continue through the afternoon and early evening with diminishing MU CAPE by mid to late evening. Can't rule out continuing the small (sub-severe) hail risk until then.

Overnight: After about 2am-3am, we start to lose cloud ice aloft, but there are strong signals for drizzle continuing through the rest of the night into Monday morning with low stratus and lift continuing. Temperatures should remain warm enough (above freezing) for most if not all the activity in our CWA to be rain. If there are some valleys that do dip down to freezing, the ground temperatures should prevent any wintery accumulation or impacts.

Monday: Drizzle will likely persist through much of the morning. Additional precipitation(15-40%) with showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon in the southwest corner of MO into southeast KS. Some weak MU CAPE does move back into that area during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The active southern stream flow will bring several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region this week into next weekend. The next main one will be in the Tuesday through Wednesday night time frame. Gulf moisture and instability will increase out ahead of the main upper wave and surface front which will likely arrive on Wednesday. While not currently in a severe outlook for Wednesday, if enough instability can develop we may see some stronger to potentially severe storms with this next wave. Heavy rain is expected with the thunderstorm activity.

A second wave is then expected to move into the area from late Thursday into Saturday morning. Additional showers and thunderstorm with heavy rain and potential strong to severe storms with this system and SPC currently has a 10% risk for severe storms Friday over our area. Additional heavy rain with this second system may lead to some flooding with repeat rainfall over the same areas.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week into at least next weekend as the polar jet remains well to the north of the area.

The upper pattern continues to remain active into the middle part of March which will likely lead to additional rain chances and hopefully reducing some of our current drought conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR ceilings with light rain falling across the area and breezy easterly winds gusting up to 25 knots. Rain will continue through this evening and overnight and will become heavier in the next few hours through 06z. This will lower visibilities and ceilings down to MVFR/IFR levels for tonight and into Monday morning. Easterly winds will stay gusty through tonight and begin to diminish by Monday morning. Once the rain clears out tomorrow, fog is forecast to form and keep ceilings at IFR levels for most of the day. Easterly winds will be light under 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.