textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions will return on Friday with northwest gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

- Colder weather arrives this weekend. Overnight wind chills are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero Saturday night.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of the area on Friday, Satruday, and especially Sunday when the lowest humidity values are expected.

- Some flurries will be possible across portions of central Missouri Friday evening and night, otherwise mostly dry conditions will persist over the next seven days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Surface high pressure is in place across the region along with a cooler and dry air mass. Temperatures will continue to warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s this afternoon as minimum humidity values drop to 20 to 35 percent this afternoon. The area of surface high pressure will continue to move east today and southerly winds will start to slightly increase some from west to east with light winds occurring across central and south central MO through this afternoon where the lowest RH values will occur. There could still be some localized elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

The southerly winds will occur into tonight ahead of a cold front that will move south through the region tonight into Friday morning. Northwesterly winds will occur behind the front and increase and be gusty at times. Low level winds will support wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Friday morning and afternoon, but there could be some isolated wind gusts up 45 mph at times. Temperatures will likely hold steady in the low to middle 40s through much of a day, but later in the day a trough will start to move south into the region with a colder air mass advecting south. Clouds will also increase across the area on Friday, and looking at low level moisture, RH values will likely not drop as much, with values overall in the 30 to 45% range. With the gusty winds some elevated fire weather conditions will occur at times.

The trough will move south through the area Friday evening and night. Moisture will be limited across the area, but the lift will support some flurries to light snow at times Friday evening and night. No impacts are expected as the amounts will remain light with the drier air in place across our area. A colder air mass will start to advect south into the region Friday night as lows drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A colder and dry air mass will remain be in place across the area this weekend into early next week. Wind chill values in the single digits will be possible each morning this weekend into early next week. The coldest morning will be Sunday, where lows in the upper single digits to lower teens will occur with wind chill values as cold as around five below. Highs Saturday will only warm into the middle 20s to the lower 30s across much of the area on Sunday and Monday. A dry air mass will remain in place across the area and could lead to some elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the area each afternoon this weekend, especially on Sunday where RH values around 20 to 25% are expected.

The ensemble model members are then indicating a warming trend beggining on Tuesday as highs warm into the upper 30s to middle 40s, then into the upper 40s to the lower 50s on Wednesday. There is the potential for an upper level disturbance to move through the region during the middle of next week and could bring some light precipitation chances to the area. There are difference between the models on the track and timing of this system with the ensemble model members only showing a 10 to 20% chance of any light precipitation occurring across the area during the middle of next week. A colder air mass will move in with this system, but that will be after the precipitation ends.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much, if not all, of the TAF period. Main aviation concern is a fropa occurring between 06-11Z, with 35-40 kt LLWS occurring with the fropa. Then, winds settle out of the northwest but increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts.

Towards the end of the period, low-level clouds will move in, though forecast soundings suggest cigs will stay above MVFR level. Right around 00Z, some isolated snow showers are possible at SGF, but with a low <15% chance of impacting the TAF site.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.