textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger today and tomorrow with hot, dry, and increasingly breezy conditions.

- High confidence in temperatures 10-20 degrees above climatological averages today through Tuesday. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Increasing confidence in chances for widespread rainfall late Tuesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Satellite imagery shows the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Isaias gradually meandering east through the southern US early this morning; meanwhile two (post) tropical systems are navigating the eastern Pacific south of a digging upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest. A less prominent shortwave is embedded within it, pivoting to the northeast through the northern High Plains. At the surface, an associated lee-low was developing across western Nebraska.

Elevated Fire Danger Today and Tomorrow:

Southwesterly winds, height rises, and warm air advection will push 850 mb temperatures into the 18 to 20 deg C range--a touch higher than yesterday--correlating with surface temperatures near 90 F given scattered high cloud cover. Forecast soundings suggest a dry and moderately deep mixed layer will develop this afternoon, with peak mixing heights between 5,000 and 6,500 ft. As the aforementioned surface low over the High Plains deepens and shifts east, the surface pressure gradient will tighten, and winds will increase. Furthermore, a belt of 25-30 kt 850 mb flow across eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri will permit some of that higher momentum flow to mix down to the surface. NBM depicts medium to high probabilities (50-75%) for gusts of 25 mph west of the Highway 65 corridor, but would not be surprised to see an odd gust closer to 30 mph either. Sustained winds will be between 10 to 20 mph. Fortunately, the driest RHs will not be co-located with the strongest winds; that is, RHs west of Highway 65 will drop into the 30-40% range, while they will drop into the 25-35% range to the east of this delineation owing in part to downsloping drying effects. These stronger winds will result in Elevated fire danger this afternoon, meaning a fire can spread rapidly should one start.

Similar temperatures and RH will occur on Monday, but winds will be stronger and extend farther to the east. This will result in an eastward expansion of the Elevated fire danger as well. Gusts of 30 mph will be more common, particularly west of Highway 65, where REFS guidance indicates a 40-60% chance. Given the lack of meaningful rainfall of late, fuels are dry and susceptible to fire starts. See the Fire section below for more detailed fuel index information.

These temperatures will also challenge daily records. See the Climate section below for more information. For context, high temperatures near 90 degrees are around 15-20 degrees above the climatological average for this time of year.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Hot Tuesday:

The hot and dry weather looks to continue through much of Tuesday. In fact, NBM percentile data suggest Tuesday may be the hottest day of the forecast period as a ridge axis builds over the Missouri Ozarks. If currently forecasted temperatures verify, daily record max temperatures would be broken or tied at all four climate sites.

Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Mid-week:

A more active pattern returns as we proceed into late Tuesday and through mid- week thanks to a pair of tropical systems in the Pacific and the aforementioned shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest. Global ensembles continue to depict good agreement in ingesting the two tropical systems into the southwest flow across the western CONUS, resulting in a stream of rich moisture content ahead of the upper-level shortwave. Cluster analysis depicts somewhat better agreement among ensembles regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern compared to yesterday, but meaningful differences still persist. The majority of ensembles depict convection developing along a cold front as it sags through Missouri late Tuesday before eventually stalling out and lifting back to the northeast as a warm front when the parent upper- level trough pivots through the Midwest sometime late Thursday into Friday. This solution would result in a period of rain chances that last through Thursday and possibly into Friday. The alternative is much more uncertain, with some ensembles--mostly ECMWF members--wanting to close off a low over the Intermountain West and effectively stall out the wave's progression, never phasing it with the northern stream energy. Should this happen, then the positioning of this wave/low will be of utmost importance, as it could either mean a sustained period of rain chances across the Missouri Ozarks, or some locations missing out entirely. A glance at NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables reveals a strong signal for abundant moisture content in forecast PWATs and specific humidity across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas where convection does form. Indeed, WPC's Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook map encompasses the entire forecast area in a risk for heavy rain. Current NBM rain chances increase Tuesday night (30-60%), max out on Wednesday (70-90%), and decrease Thursday night (25-50%).

As we have seen recently, however, many factors will have to align for this risk of heavy rain to be realized, and the forecast can and will change over the next 72 hours, so stay tuned as we get a better handle on these important meteorological details.

Cooler temperatures will move in behind this system, with near to perhaps even below average temperatures by the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southwest winds will increase after 12Z and become increasingly gusty into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt will wind down after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A prolonged period with substantial rainfall deficits from late Summer and into the Fall has contributed to worsening drought conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The latest Drought Monitor valid Oct 6 showed a continued expansion of the D3 (Extreme Drought) and an overall categorical degradation across the fire weather forecast area. Resultant fuel moisture indices show similar trends. Woody FM readings between 60-70 and Herb FM values of 30-60 suggest these fuels are cured or very dry. Combined, these produce a Growing Season Index (GSI) of 0.1 to 0.3, indicating fuel dormancy. Furthermore, KBDI values greater than 600 (and in some cases greater than 700) also suggest fuels are near or completely cured.

While Red Flag Warning (RFW) conditions are not forecast to be met in the next seven days, we will officially begin our fire weather season messaging, and headlines will be issued should RFW criteria be forecast from this point onward.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

October 11: KSGF: 91/1963 KJLN: 91/2020 KVIH: 92/1963 KUNO: 93/1963

October 12: KSGF: 91/2024 KJLN: 93/2024 KVIH: 90/2024 KUNO: 87/1975

October 13: KSGF: 88/2017 KJLN: 88/1952 KVIH: 88/1899 KUNO: 93/1989

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.