textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday as daily heat index values climb to around 100 to 105 degrees. Little nighttime relief with lows in the 70s. These hot conditions may linger through the Independence Day weekend, so those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours today, Friday, and Saturday. Coverage/probability is less than 30 percent each day. There is the potential for a few strong storms with gusty winds as the main risk, but confidence is low at this time.

- Additional storm chances (20-60%) will be possible across the area at times from late this weekend into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The ridge of high pressure remains over the region and will remain in place the rest of the week. Temperatures will be similar to what occurred yesterday both today and again on Friday as highs warm into the lower to middle 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Little relief from the heat will occur overnight, with lows remaining in the 70s across the entire area tonight into Friday morning. The Heat Advisory remains in place areawide through 9PM Friday evening. Winds will gusts up to 20 to 25 mph again during the late morning and afternoon hours west of Highway 65 both today and Friday.

Slightly better moisture will be in place in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere late this week. Instability will increases and the cap weakens with the heating of the day both today and Friday. As a result a few isolated storms will be possible during the late morning into the evening hours both today and Friday. Coverage will remain limited as lift will be weak so not all locations will be impacted. There is a low chance for a strong storm with gusty winds with this activity.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The ridge of high pressure will start to move off to the east this weekend. There is the potential for a complex of storms to develop across the central Plains Friday night and move southeast late Friday night into Saturday morning. The ridge will still be over the region during this time so any activity should weaken before moving into the area Saturday morning. Even with the convection weakening as it moves south towards the area, clouds and an outflow boundary from the activity could move into the area on Saturday. The outflow may then be a source of lift Saturday afternoon/evening for some scattered pulse type storms to develop. If storms can develop there could be the potential for some gusty winds with a few of the strongest storms. Storm movement will be slow which could lead to some locally heavy rainfall, but coverage should not be widespread.

Increase clouds and scattered storms could keep Saturday's highs to be slightly coole South to sor, but if more sun can occur highs in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values around 100 to 105 could once again occur across the area.

Saturday night into Sunday the ridge of high pressure will continue to move off to the east. Additional convection development will be possible across the central Plains Saturday night and move east/southeast Saturday night into Sunday. It is possible that this convection makes it into portions of the area but the exact track of storms will be dependent on exactly where storms develop.

The ensemble model members then indicate that a few weak upper level disturbances may move through the region at times next week bringing chances (20-60%) for showers and storms to the area at times. Differences remain on the exact timing and locations of the shower and storm potential next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Southerly will occur today and will become gusty at times this morning into this afternoon. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop across the area late this morning into early this evening. There is a low chance (< 25%) for a few isolated thunderstorms late this morning into the early evening hours. Coverage will be very limited so confidence in a TAF site being impacted was too low to include any mention of convection in the TAFs at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.