textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area through this evening. Heat index values around 100 to 115 will occur.

- There is a slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening mainly along/north of a line from Nevada to Lebanon to Rolla. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

- Heat returns to southwestern portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm potential, including severe chances, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then again Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Heat continues today, and temperatures were bumped up a couple degrees from previous forecasts given less than expected cloud cover. Look for highs around 100 with max head index values of 105-115.

The severe threat and area has been refined from previous forecasts, now with a slight risk that favors areas along/north of a line from Nevada to Lebanon to Rolla. Wind gusts to 60 mph (possibly 70 mph) remain the primary risk in this area from mid afternoon through the evening. Most other locations (see SPC outlook map for more details) are in a marginal risk for wind gusts mainly in the 40-50 mph range, with an isolated gust or two to 60 mph possible.

Mid-Missouri is favored due to a combination of enhanced mid- level winds resulting in 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kts, MLCAPE values of 2,500-3,500 J/kg, and greater differential Theta-E of 25-35 K. Further south, shear will be weak at 10-20 kts and MLCAPES lower at 1,500-2,500 J/kg, which may result in marginal pulse type storms with mainly 40-50 mph gusts (isolated 60 mph possible). Southern areas also have some mid to upper level confluence that should limit coverage and growth.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Following the passage of today's front, Monday will generally be cooler with highs potentially ranging from the mid 80s north to the mid 90s south. Temperatures are in greatest question over the southern CWA where a 20% chance of rain exists and may bring increased cloud cover with it. If mid 90s highs work out, then heat index values of 100-105 would probably occur, which would require a Heat Advisory given recent stint of hot weather. Opted to push that decision to later shifts to monitor trends.

Southerly flow pushes the hot airmass into southwestern portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Look for highs to range significantly across the area from 95-105 (heat index 100-110) along/southwest of a line from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains, to 85-95 (heat index 95-100) northwest of that line.

The pattern will generally favor northwest flow MCS potential Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and some guidance is showing that occuring. Plenty of uncertainty exists with this potential, but severe weather could be possible.

A shortwave and cold front then move through late Wednesday into Thursday, prompting thunderstorm chances. While confidence in details is low, machine learning models are showing severe potential with this round of convection.

Friday and Saturday are currently dry in the forecast with highs ranging from the mid 80s northeast to the mid 90s southwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. A front is currently approaching the I-44 corridor with some accompanying thunderstorms. Coverage and intensity of storms is rather low overall, though with particular interest to aviation is the downburst potential with pulse thunderstorms. Numerous downburst signatures around KSGF have already been observed on radar in the last couple of hours. The front continues to push southeast and will largely take storm chances with it, at least in the vicinity of the TAF sites (storms may lag behind the front farther east into central Missouri). KJLN is in the clear while KSGF will be dealing with scatted convection and downbursts for the next few hours and KBBG may see this activity closer to 06Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.