textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue through tonight with brief dry periods. More widespread rain chances will occur Sunday into Monday (90% chance).

- A Flood Watch has been issued for 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for areas along and west of Hwy 63. 1-3 inch per hour downpours possible leading to a flash flooding risk. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat- related impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A surface low is churning to our west over OK today and that's where the heaviest rain has fallen. However, southern MO has seen some rain today, but rainfall accumulations have stayed lower (~ 1 inch) and no flooding has occurred quite yet. Though, with rain that has moved through, visibilities have dropped to 1 to 2 miles within the heavier rain bands. Heaviest bands and lightning has stayed closer to the surface low down to our southwest. There will be brief periods of dry weather especially later this evening as the chance for rain drops to 20-40%. Then, a small low-level jet gets going tonight after midnight over far SW MO and SE KS and starts to increase our rain chances again in that area overnight (50-60%). There may be minor flooding that occurs today especially in urban areas or low- lying flood prone areas.

The remainder of today will be cloudy with highs reaching the upper 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s with light southerly winds.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

More rain is on the way on Sunday as the low pressure system slowly pushes northeast through the day. Tomorrow features our highest chance for flooding as the trough ejects an abundance of mid-level vorticity into our area. This will enhance the lift for even higher rain rates over our area tomorrow. We will still message the threat for 1-3 in/hr rates with this activity which is the reason for the issuance of the Flood Watch. There were already 2-3 in/hr rates in the activity today over OK, and we will see similar convective processes tomorrow. This watch was issued due to the high rain rates expected as opposed to overall rainfall totals. The Flood Watch as been issued mostly for counties along and west of Highway 63 from 1 PM Sunday through 1 PM Monday. Even though rain will start earlier than this timeframe, this is when the risk for flash flooding is at its peak. Not all the counties in the watch will see flash flooding, and there could be areas outside of the watch that do end up seeing localized flash flooding. As far as rainfall totals go, we are expecting 1-3 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 5 inches.

SPC has introduced a small area of a Marginal Risk (1/5) over SE KS and SW MO mainly for a tornado risk. This risk spawns from the decent amount of shear and SRH (200-300 m2/s2) over the area due to the surface low. This tornado risk is a low and very conditional threat. Shear and instability have to line up perfectly to get this risk to come to fruition. But, the low-end risk is there tomorrow and we will have to monitor that threat.

Another shortwave moves through the area to start the week and brings rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. By mid-week, high pressure sets in once again. Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-related impacts. Take caution if you are sensitive to heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Ceilings will oscillate between VFR/MVFR through the period as heavy rain moves through the area. There will be brief periods of dry time, then heavy rain will start again. No severe weather is expected, but there may be a few rumbles of thunder in this activity. Visibilities may drop to 1 to 2 SM within the heaviest bands of rain. Winds will stay southerly and gust up to 15 mph through the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MOZ055-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.