textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.

- Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not.

- Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms across central Missouri Thursday evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 138 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak cold front will continue to move south through the area overnight into early this morning. There is some weak MUCAPE in place ahead of the front, but a dry air mass is also in place in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere which is limiting any convection along the front as lift is not overly strong to overcome the dry air mass. Therefore, a dry frontal passage is expected through the early morning hours. The air mass behind the front is not much cooler than ahead of it, as highs are expected to warm into the middle to upper 70s this afternoon, just a few degrees cooler than what occurred yesterday.

An area of surface high pressure will move south into the region today and across the area tonight and off to the east on Thursday. As temperatures start to warm, mixing will occur and will result in some gusts of 15 to 25 mph at times this morning and afternoon. A dry air mass will be in place and with mixing afternoon RH values will likely drop to around 20 to 30%.

An upper-level ridge will move into the Plains tonight into Thursday. Warm air advection will occur from west to east across the area late tonight into Thursday. Some weak MUCAPE will develop across the area with the warm air advection. The dry air mass will remain in place across the area especially further to the east. Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible (10-20%) west of I-49 late tonight as lift from the warm air moves into the area. The dry air will limit coverage so most locations will likely remain dry. The lift and weak instability will move east across the rest of the area Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. The dry air mass will likely limit convection potential, but a few isolated showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible across the region Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. Though it is also quite possible the dry air mass wins out and most if not all locations remain dry. As the warmer air advects into the region, highs will range from the middle 70s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower to mid 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 138 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Marginal Severe Risk Thursday Night:

A mid-level shortwave trough and surface dryline will shift through the Plains on Thursday and produce isolated to widely scattered storms across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Models show instability waning diurnally as the system pushes into eastern Kansas and Missouri; however, a strengthening and veering low-level jet may allow for a continued low severe risk into our area Thursday night. These storms would be elevated in nature, with hail up to the size of quarters as the primary risk. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined locations roughly along and north of Highway 54 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) through this period.

Summer-like Weather this Weekend into Next Week:

Ensembles depict a more zonal upper-level pattern developing Friday into the weekend. Farther down, 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise into the 17 to 20 deg C range, which correlates to surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s climatologically. For reference, average highs this time of year are in the 75 to 78 degree range.

Deterministic guidance suggests a few weak shortwave impulses will wiggle their way through the westerly upper-level flow, which, in combination with moderate low-level moisture, could produce intermittent scattered showers and thunderstorms. There will likely be more dry time than not through the weekend, though, and NBM probabilities of 72-hr (Fri-Sun) rainfall totals greater than 1 inch are 10% or less.

A deeper, more prominent trough will dig through the western CONUS Sunday night into Monday, which will act to draw Gulf moisture into the region. As this wave and its attendant cold front shift east, showers and thunderstorms will develop throughout the warm, moist, and unstable air. As the southwesterly flow strengthens, the increasing shear may allow for more organized storm development. Some AI/ML guidance does indeed depict some signal for severe thunderstorm potential with this system, though confidence in the details is too low at this point to provide much in the way of specifics. To that end, ensemble clusters portray significant disagreements in both the magnitude of the aforementioned trough and the timing of its passage, limiting overall forecast confidence. For what it's worth, models have continued to trend slower with the speed of this system, meaning the highest precipitation chances for southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri are currently from Monday evening into Tuesday. Until the passage of this front, the summer- like temperatures will continue.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Winds have shifted to the north-northeast behind the cold front that passed through southern Missouri early this morning, leaving behind clear skies. Winds will gradually turn to the southeast after 00Z.

There is a low chance (10 to 20%) of a few showers across far western Missouri around 12Z Thursday, but confidence in occurrence or any impacts to the terminals was too low to include in the current TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.