textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers at times across portions of the area today and tonight with a few light showers lingering into Sunday. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and west of Highway 65. Very low probability (<10%) for winds to exceed Wind Advisory Criteria.

- 90+% chance for rain to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end potential for severe weather with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

No significantly impactful weather expected in the short term. Mainly looking at scattered light showers (with little not thunder risk) persisting into tonight, then isolated light showers lingering into Sunday. Forecast rainfall amounts generally range from < 0.10 inches N of I-44 to 0.10-0.20 south of I-44.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Synopsis: A deep upper trough is shown by all guidance to move through the central CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in a high confidence in precip chances (90+%) moving west to east through the area. There still remains considerable model spread on some details of the system, such as shortwave energy location/strength within the larger trough and subsequent low level pressure fields. Cluster analysis of ensembles doesn't significantly favor one outcome over another, further reducing confidence on outcomes such as wind gusts and precip amounts. Mid to late week is considerably uncertain as models significantly vary in the evolution of the pattern, with some showing the trough or upper low stalling and lingering near the CWA, while others have a more progressive pattern with shortwave energy moving through.

Winds Monday: Minimally hazardous southerly gusts up to 35 mph are currently expected for Monday. Given the uncertainty in the low level pressure fields, these expectations may change with time, but current NBM probabilities for gusts above Wind Advisory levels are generally < 10%.

Severe potential late Monday into Monday night: SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather along/West of Hwy 65 and a slight risk over portions of our southeast Kansas counties. It is quite likely that deep layer shear will be > 50 kts, but instability and other near-term details remain quite uncertain. At this time, ensemble and deterministic outputs keep MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, with many showing < 250 J/kg. This limits confidence in severe potential in our CWA, but many of the important mesoscale details are not resolvable given the uncertainty in even synoptic level details.

Rainfall amounts late Monday and Tuesday: Overall amounts have been trending lower, with the forecast totals now at 0.8-1.5 inches. While considerable uncertainly in these details remains, CAM output suggests that some areas have potential to see very little rainfall and many areas may not see meaningful drought relief. NBM probabilities for total rainfall >= 1.0 inches ranges from 50% over the western CWA to 70% over the east. Probabilities for >= 2.0 inches is 10-40% (greatest SE of Springfield). Not seeing any noteworthy flooding potential at this time.

Mid to late week: Given uncertainty, kept the NBM blend untouched in this time range, resulting some 15-25% chances for rain, highs in the 60s, and lows in the 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain showers at KJLN and KBBG this afternoon will continue into this evening before becoming more scattered to isolated this evening and tonight. KSGF may occasionally see a shower, but prevalent conditions are expected to be dry.

Low level moisture will move in tonight, resulting in MVFR to IFR ceilings into Sunday.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.