textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) return Thursday evening into Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. Damaging wind gusts near 60 mph is the main threat.

- Daily chances exist for showers and strong to severe thunderstorms through the weekend.

- Will have to monitor for excessive rainfall later this week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Visible satellite imagery is showing a cloud deck trying to break up over us with a few peaks of sun here and there. Dewpoints have been quite a bit warmer today in the upper 50s across the area. Though, daytime highs are very similar to yesterday with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Southwesterly winds have been gusty today near 20 mph. Winds stay slightly elevated near 10 mph overnight with clouds slowly breaking up as the evening goes on.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Thursday will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 70s. Pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the cold front tomorrow with winds the strongest over western MO near 35 mph. Showers and thunderstorms have potential to form ahead of the front and flow into our NW CWA. We have 20-30% POPs over that area to account for any convection that does develop. The main threat will be the cold front that will push through Thursday night into Friday. The best environment for all modes of severe weather will occur over NE KS and NW MO where the bulk of the slight risk (2/5) is located. Our western counties are just barely included in that area. Though all modes of severe weather are possible, damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) will be the greatest threat with this system especially as it pushes further east into south-central MO and it becomes more linear. The better shear (orientation and magnitude) will occur over SE KS and the far SW MO. This area (for our CWA) is the best area for spin-up tornadoes to occur. Shear diminishes in strength as you go further east in the state.

The cold front will slowly push through overnight and winds start to turn northerly for central MO by late Friday morning. Models are showing the front stalling just south of I-44 on Friday. This has led to the slight risk (2/5) being issued for areas along and south I-44. If the front wraps back around or stalls in that area, it could cause convection to occur Friday afternoon. The Friday severe threat is very conditional and will be entirely based on where the front stalls out on Friday morning and how long the initial convection with the first push of the cold front sticks around. The better environment will likely be south of the MO/AR border where there's better instability. Again, all modes of severe weather will be possible on Friday afternoon, but convection may be shorter lived and will be highly dependent on how Friday morning plays out.

Next round of severe weather is forecast Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night into Monday due to a few shortwaves passing through the area. Saturday night's system will be overflow convection from NE OK and SE KS. The main area for severe weather will occur to our west over those areas. Hazards are still a bit uncertain at this time, but the storms that push in from those areas may not be as widespread as the storm system we see on Thursday night. Then, we get another round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday with the next shortwave moving through.

This activity unfortunately does bring in the concern for localized heavy rainfall. Last week we saw that these storms can be efficient rainfall producers and have caused the river levels to rise especially over in western MO. WPC has most of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall (1/4) throughout the end of the week into the weekend. Right now, areas along and north of I-44 are forecast to receive the most rainfall. WPC has that area seeing upwards of 3-5 inches through that five day period (Thu-Mon). Looking at the Southern Regional Climate Center, areas north of I-44 have received 200-600% of their 30-day average rainfall totals. This means that those areas are already saturated and some rivers are still elevated above their normal levels as well. We'll have to carefully monitor for any flooding in that area this weekend. Lastly, winds may not even have to be +60 mph to take down trees. Since the soil is so saturated, this may cause even more trees to become uprooted with any moderate wind gusts that come through that area with the cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Flight conditions across the region are expected to remain mainly VFR though Thursday afternoon. There will likely be a period of MVFR ceilings for the KJLN terminal from 12-19Z as increased low level moisture moves over the area.

There will be the potential for a few showers to move over the area was well through Thursday morning into the early afternoon, though confidence is low and thus not included in the forecasts.

Surface winds will be rather breezy with gusts from 20 to 30kts after sunrise across the plateau including JLN and SGF.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.