textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (2 out of 5) to Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon/early evening as a quick moving line moves through the area. The primary risk will be damaging winds, with a low risk for a quick spin up across south- central Missouri.

- Gusty northerly winds of 40 to 50 mph will occur behind the front Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area. - Light snow behind the frontal passage on Sunday evening, with amounts generally around a half inch or less in central Missouri. A few slick spots possible through Sunday night into Monday morning commute.

- Below average temperatures with near record lows in the teens will occur on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will quickly rebound to above average by the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Through Tonight: Surface high pressure is gradually settling east of the area into the Ohio River Valley, allowing southerly return flow. Winds have increased through the early afternoon, with occasional gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph. Additionally, this has allowed for warmer weather today with highs topping out in the lower to middle 70s. This brief stretch of drier and warmer weather will be short-lived as a pattern change is on the horizon with an approaching storm system on Sunday into Monday. Clouds will be on the increase overnight, with lows in the middle to upper 50s.

Sunday-Monday: By Sunday morning, an upper-level trough digs out of the Northern Plains with a rapidly developing and strengthening low translating into the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. Strong warm air advection will precede the approach of this system, with locations reaching their high temperatures (middle 60s) in the morning. Additionally, a slight uptick in moisture can be expected, though not overwhelmingly impressive. This can be gleaned from dewpoints only expected to reach into the lower to middle 50s. Further analysis of moisture can be captured from model soundings, depicting some mid-level moisture nudging into the area. This may play a factor in the realized instability as a front surges through the area by early Sunday afternoon, featuring a thin line of showers and thunderstorms. In addition to the line of thunderstorms, gusty non-thunderstorm winds will also accompany this system. A tightening pressure gradient with the low will support 40 to 50 mph gusts through Sunday. Lastly, this system will feature a shot of Winter with light snow chances and very cold temperatures/wind chills.

Potential for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms: Instability is still expected to remain rather marginal at best with a highly sheared environment. HREF depict MUCAPE around 250-750 J/kg. As the strong front surges into the area, an existing cap will quickly be eroded and giveaway to a thin line of showers and thunderstorms. CAMs want to initialize this activity along the Highway 65 corridor near noon, with "better" development expected east of Highway 65. This can be better characterized by SPCs Day 2 Severe Outlook, where a Slight (2 of 5) risk transitions to an Enhanced (3 of 5) risk. This aligns along and east of the Highway 63 corridor. The primary risk with this strongly forced thin line will be damaging wind gust around 60 to 70 mph. A much lower threat for a quick spin up along the line, though low-level conditions remain marginal at best. Overall, the latest guidance suggest a downward trend in the severe potential for our area, with the better environment aligning to the east. The timeframe for the line moving through the area is roughly between 12 to 6 pm. Monitor the forecast for updates as mesoscale details unfold over the next 12 to 18 hours.

Gusty Winds: The tight pressure gradient will support strong winds, both pre- and post-frontal. Ahead of the front, southerly winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph, before turning out of the west- northwest behind the front on Sunday afternoon and evening. The strong gusts occur along and behind the frontal passage, with northwest wind gusts approaching 40 to 50 mph. The strong winds persist through Sunday night, before gradually weakening into Monday morning. Given the increased confidence in strong gusts of 40 to 50 mph, the entire area has been put into a Wind Advisory for Sunday morning through Monday morning.

Winter Weather and Cold: As the front surges through the area by late Sunday afternoon, there could be some wraparound moisture that slides through the area into Sunday evening. The latest trends suggest less moisture, and thus less snowfall potential. Snowfall probabilities have dropped off since the overnight forecast package, with central Missouri the primary location for seeing measurable and impactful snow amounts. This is where probabilities for measurable snowfall are 40 to 60 percent, with greater than one inch less than 10 percent. This supports the storyline of light amounts at best into central Missouri, with a few slick spots possible as cold air surges into the region. Furthermore, a few slick spots as a result of flash freeze cannot be ruled given the rapid drop in temperatures. However, gusty winds may work against the flash freeze potential, quickly drying pavements. For the time being, we will continue to advertise the potential for light snowfall amounts (up to a half inch or less) across central Missouri, with a few slick spots possible into Sunday night and Monday morning. Particularly, untreated roadways and bridges/overpasses may become slick. Blowing snow has become less of concern, though a brief period or two of reduced visibilities remains plausible.

This turns attention to the anomalous cold temperatures on Sunday night into Monday, lingering through early next week. Lows are progged to drop into the teens to lower 20s Sunday night, with Monday morning wind chills around 0. The area struggles to warm much more than lower to middle 30s on Monday afternoon, with another very cold night into Tuesday morning with lows once again in the teens. Those in the agriculture community should play close attention to sensitive crops/early blooming. Additionally, make sure to not be caught off guard by the brief return of Winter.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The colder weather will begin to moderate Tuesday and through the rest of next week. Ensemble model members are in good agreement with temperatures returning to the 70s by midweek, with highs in the 80s possible by the middle to end of next week. A few model 90th percentile outputs for highs next weekend even have temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. This would send the Ozarks from winter to summer in one week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR ceilings will persist through the rest of today with breezy southerly winds gusting up to 25 knots overnight. High clouds will start to move in ahead of the cold front early tomorrow morning. Wind shear may be an issue tomorrow especially as winds continue to increase throughout the day on Sunday following the passage of a strong cold front. MVFR ceilings return late Sunday morning with rain starting after 12z. Cold front moves through in the afternoon and turns our winds northerly with gusts near 40 knots. Though, a Wind Advisory has been issued for late Sunday morning and gusts up to 50 mph could occur occasionally. Light snow is forecast for most of the area and will wrap around the backside of the front just before 00z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A cold arctic airmass will bring a brief return of winter temperatures to the Ozarks for Monday (March 16) and Tuesday (March 17) mornings. For some locations, mornings lows may fall to near record temperatures with forecast lows in the middle to upper teens. These temperatures may have impacts on early blooming vegetation thanks to a warm previous two week period of temperatures from 5 to 15 degrees above average. Of the past 13 days, 10 have been warmer than average.

Record Low Temperatures:

March 16: KSGF: 16/1895 KJLN: 19/1988 KVIH: 14/1900 KUNO: 16/1988

March 17: KSGF: 13/1900 KJLN: 16/1906 KVIH: 8/1900 KUNO: 18/1958

Record Low Highs:

March 16: KUNO: 32/1970

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073- 097-101. MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.