textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning along a corridor roughly from the Oklahoma border to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat Index values around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this area. A Heat Advisory is also in effect for locations farther south and east through the same timeframe with daily Heat Index values expected to be around 100. - Low rain chances (15-30%) Thursday through Saturday north of Interstate 44. Confidence remains low with a downward trend in rain chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show an upper level high slowly expanding east towards the area. Warmer air aloft continues to advect into the area with the 00z KSGF sounding measuring an 850mb temp of 23C and a 700mb temp of 14C. This has created a strong mid level capping inversion across the area. A low level jet across Kansas and northwest Missouri has allowed for the development of a small cluster of showers and storms near the Kansas City area. This cluster of storms was on the edge of the stronger capping with a slow southward movement. Temps remain quite mild overnight with many areas in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Hot and Mostly Dry Weather: The small cluster of storms may clip Morgan County early this morning and have added 20-30 percent rain chances across that area. Otherwise dry conditions are expected with minimal daily cloud cover. A slight increase in 850mb temps will allow for highs to climb a few degrees from previous days across the area. Many areas will reach the middle to upper 90s with 100 degrees across the I-49 corridor and west. Joplin reached 100 degrees for a high temp on Sunday with further adds confidence in these forecast high temps given the dry vegetation in that area. While there was some decent mixing yesterday, afternoon heat indicies were still able to reach the 103-108 range across the Extreme Heat Warning area with indicies closer to 100 across the Heat Advisory area. Very warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s will continue the next few days. Expecting similar conditions today and Tuesday and no changes planned to the heat headlines. NWS Heat Risk continues to show the entire area in the Major to Extreme category therefore heat sensitive groups will need to take proper precautions.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Hot conditions continue with decreasing rain chances: Ensembles suggest that the upper ridge will slide further east and become centered just south of the area by mid week. This will allow a more westerly component at 850mb with some of the highest temps advecting in (850mb temps of 24-26C). Latest NBM continues to show widespread upper 90s to lower 100s mainly across locations west of Highway 65 on Wednesday. Locations that have seen rain recently may still be too green to reach 100 but it will be close as consecutive days of these high temps will begin to dry soils/grass out. Dewpoints will mix out a little further in the afternoon each day however the higher air temps may still balance out to allow for continued heat indicies of 100-108.

Latest ensemble guidance has trended stronger with the upper ridge and would lead to hotter and drier conditions for Thursday through at least Friday. It is not unusual for these stronger summertime highs to remain established for longer periods of time than deterministic models originally indicate. We are becoming more confident that heat headlines may need to be extended into Thursday and perhaps Friday however will need to see how much mixing occurs and the exact placement of rain chances to our north. Highs may end of remaining well into the 90s to around 100 Thursday and Friday for the southwest half of the area. Rain chances have shifted further north for Thursday and Friday and this trend may continue further into the weekend. Latest CPC guidance indicates the prolonged heat may last or redevelop over the area during the following week (August 17-21). Therefore heat sensitive groups will need to prepare for the potential of an extended period of heat with low rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with some high clouds and afternoon cumulus around 6kft. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest during the late morning and afternoon with gusts around 20kts likely.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058- 066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083- 090>092-095>098-102>106.