textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) severe risk late tonight into Sunday morning for an area northwest of I-44. The primary risk is damaging wind gusts.

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk Sunday afternoon through Sunday night across the entire area. Primary risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk for a few tornadoes.

- A Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall risk Sunday morning through Monday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 AM Sunday morning through 7 AM Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

BLUF: There will be a roughly 24 hour window of severe thunderstorm potential across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas from Sunday morning through early Monday morning. The highest confidence in severe weather is during the late afternoon and evening period across central Missouri. With the potential for several rounds of storms, a flash flood risk is also apparent.

Sunday Morning: An upper-level shortwave across the northern Plains has helped to initiate convection across eastern Nebraska early this afternoon. This activity will expand into an MCS and dive east- southeast along a warm front through Iowa and northern Missouri throughout the evening and overnight. Depending on the exact positioning of the front, locations along and north of Highway 54 may be clipped by this MCS Sunday morning. Models remain quite variable in how they handle the southern flank of the MCS and how much (if any) convection develops along the trailing cold front/trough that extends southward from the parent low through the Plains. MPAS models tend to be the most bullish and bringing a line of convection into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, while others tend to dissipate this activity as it outruns the 850 mb jet and higher instability. If storms are able to remained organized, a marginal wind threat may exist, mainly for locations across far western Missouri and eastern Kansas.

Sunday Afternoon and Evening: Models shows a general weakening of convection from the overnight MCS Sunday morning. Exactly where showers and storms track, how quickly (or if) they dissipate, and how much coverage lingers will affect how much thermodynamic recovery can occur during the day and where the afternoon/ evening risk will manifest. One or several outflow boundaries will likely exist across central Missouri, which will act as the focus for convective initiation once again. Given steep forecast mid- level lapse rates and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing hail to golf balls, 60-70 mph wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Wherever initiation occurs, storms will translate to the southeast during the afternoon and evening as the aforementioned surface low shifts east and drags its attendant cold front through southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

Sunday Night: Global models depict another shortwave impulse diving southeast through the Plains Sunday night into early Monday morning. This wave could help reinvigorate convection along the front before it clears the Missouri/Arkansas border and introduce a lingering severe thunderstorm risk across southern Missouri. Of course, this threat actually coming together is dependent upon a number of prior convective occurrences and mesoscale interactions, so confidence remains low at this time.

Flash Flood Risk through Sunday: The strong 850 mb jet across eastern Kansas will pump moisture into the region ahead of the front during the day Sunday, which will allow for efficient rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr within the strongest storms. Model QPF continues to vary quite significantly in the placement of highest rainfall amounts given the multitude of solutions in convective evolution throughout the day. As such, it is difficult to discriminate the flash flood potential across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, but given the saturated antecedent conditions from recent rainfall, any location that experiences training thunderstorms will be susceptible to flash flooding. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be common, with localized amounts up to 5 inches. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Ensemble clusters depict general agreement in building an upper-level ridge across the western CONUS next week, leaving the Missouri Ozarks under northwest flow aloft with a stalled frontal boundary draped somewhere across Arkansas. Overall, this pattern will allow for more dry time than not throughout the week. Deterministic global models do suggest some weakly forced convection may be possible each day with the passing of transient shortwave impulses as evidenced by NBM PoPs of 25-50%, but these chances will moreso be near-term forecast challenges that will have to be better assessed in future forecast updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Scattered fair weather cumulus have developed across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon. Where coverage is greater, some pockets of MVFR ceilings have developed. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light southerly winds will prevail.

A thunderstorm complex will track through central and northern Missouri tonight. There is a chance the southern flank of this complex sags south into southern Missouri and impact the terminals around 12Z, but confidence was too low to include in the current TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.