textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area today through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s to around 80.

- Low chances (5-20%) for an isolated thunderstorm north of Highway 54 late tonight and again during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. Brief heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust are the main hazards. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited across the area and most if not all locations will likely remain dry.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Sunday evening/night into Monday morning for portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a strong upper level high centered just south of the area. The 12Z KSGF sounding continues to show warm air aloft with a 700mb temp of 12C and a 850mb temp of 23C. This is keeping rain and storm chances north of the area with mostly sunny skies. As of early afternoon, temps have already climbed into the middle to upper 90s with heat indicies around 100. While southerly wind gusts around 20-25mph continue, dewpoints still remain around 70 degrees.

Extreme Heat Continues: Conditions this afternoon and again Saturday will be quite similar with warm 850mb temps supporting highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. The warmest temps look to occur across southeast Kansas and western Missouri where highs in the low 100s are common. This region continues to be the driest and has allowed for these higher temps to be achieved. High res guidance does indicate that dews should begin to slowly drop into the upper 60s during the afternoons however some locations may remain in the low 70s. This will keep heat indicies in the 105-110 range during peak heating. Overnight lows again will remain very warm with little relief occuring. Therefore the Extreme Heat Warnings continue.

Very Low Rain Chances: Locations north of Highway 54 (Benton- Morgan counties) will be on the southern edge of the storm track overnight and again Saturday night as the low level jet develops and veers north and west of the area. Isolated showers and storms may graze those counties however chances remain below 20 percent and most places will remain dry.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Heat and Thunderstorm Chances Sunday: The ridge looks to flatten a bit and should allow for a front to sag into the area along with shortwave energy. Latest guidance suggests that a front and perhaps some ongoing elevated storms may be ongoing early Sunday morning to our northwest. Our environment on Sunday looks to be similar to the previous few days however mid level temps should begin to cool. This cooling aloft, along with the forcing of the front should allow for the development of afternoon/evening showers and storms. We will need to assess the mesoscale environment in future updates for exact storm hazards however sufficient instability and weak shear would support a pulse severe setup with damaging winds the most likely hazard. If storm motions are slow enough then localized flooding would be a concern. Soils continue to dry out therefore flash flood guidance is high.

Temps look to heat up into the upper 90s to around 100 again on Sunday with heat indicies around 100-110 degrees and the Extreme Heat Warning continues.

Heat Continues Next Week: For Sunday through Wednesday, there is less confidence in the pattern as the ridge looks to be close to the area to where temps may surge back up, especially mid week. However we may remain close enough that precip chances increase. At this point, the Extreme Heat Warning most likely will not be needed Monday and Tuesday however we will need to monitor temp trends south of I-44 where heat indicies will be highest. Wednesday looks to feature the next warmest day with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 and the NWS Heat Risk tool showing an increased area of "Major" risk for heat sensitive groups.

After Wednesday there seems to be a little more confidence as ensembles are in better agreement that the ridge will slide west of the area, back towards the Rockies. This would place our area in northwest flow aloft with the potential for highs to drop closer to average and perhaps increased precip chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period. Surface winds will increase this afternoon out of the south to southwest with gusts to 25kts at JLN. Weak low level wind shear is expected at SGF and JLN late tonight into Saturday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.