textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered shower and storm chances (40-80%) today into tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon and evening hours today as a cold front slowly pushes southeast across the area.

- Some isolated strong to severe storms are possible with activity this afternoon, with damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph and hail to the size of quarters possible in the strongest storms. SPC maintained Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe storms.

- Near-normal temperatures in the 70s to near 80 beginning Tuesday, with seasonably pleasant and dry conditions continuing through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Ridging across the eastern CONUS is finally beginning to be meaningfully dislodged, with a closed low/trough aloft over the Intermountain West sending several antecedent shortwaves across the Plains. One such shortwave is interacting with an area of sfc low pressure along a cold front extending southwest from central Iowa through NW Missouri and into south-central Kansas, where several clusters of showers and thunderstorms can be observed on 1:30 AM regional radar imagery. Also visible on overnight radar imagery is an outflow boundary that has raced ahead of a complex near Kansas City to the edge of our forecast area.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, the outflow boundary is expected to continue to fall south, providing a stabilizing effect that will mitigate any shower or storm potential before sunrise in central Missouri. The outflow seems to be more diffuse moving into Kansas, so the storms focused along the secondary low/cold front segment in Kansas have a better chance of making it into our Kansas and far southwest Missouri counties. The longevity/persistence overnight of these storms will likely be aided by the strengthening nocturnal LLJ, but many 00Z CAMs maintained yesterday's trends insisting that storms would fall apart as they reached the edges of our CWA. Through 8-9AM this morning, highest PoPs (40-60%) remain constricted to southeast Kansas and far western Missouri counties, with broken, decaying showers expected to dissipate nearly completely after 9AM.

Showers and Storms This Afternoon/Evening: The cold front will continue to slowly move across the region from northwest to southeast through the day today and into the overnight hours tonight, acting as a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms at times today and into tonight. Most areas will likely stay dry for the majority of the day today, with coverage appearing to even remain isolated to scattered once storms do re-initiate this afternoon. That being said, the surface convergence associated with the outflow boundary from this morning will be a mechanism to monitor as an additional source of convective initiation this afternoon ahead of the main front.

Despite evening CAM runs suggesting limited initiation, environmental analysis still suggests the potential for showers and storms this afternoon into this evening, with 1000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE available along the front (depending on your model of choice). The RAP goes as far as to suggest areas with 35-45kts of 0-6km bulk shear around 8-9PM tonight, which would suggest storms could become severe if a deep updraft or two could become rooted, especially within the vicinity of another storm. The best moisture and instability will be pooled along the slow-moving front as it traipses east, suggesting that clustered development along the front is most likely, while isolated to scattered cells may be possible if storms initiate ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will again be in the 90s for much of the area, especially along and south of I-44. This may also influence isolated cell development ahead of the front.

Most storms that do develop are still expected to remain sub- severe, though the potential for some embedded severe activity still remains on the table. Hail to the size of quarters will be possible with any supercells/multicell clusters, though damaging downburst winds to 50-60 mph will be the primary severe concern for the day with strong storms that develop.

Rain Lingers Into Monday: Post-frontal elevated showers may linger after dark and even into Monday morning, with 30-70% PoPs along the front between 12AM and 7AM on Monday. The front may not fully clear the far southeast portion of our forecast area until after dark on Monday, so rain chances along the front will linger until the front pushes fully out of the area Monday night. Best rain chances are near the Arkansas border on Monday afternoon, 30-50% chances remaining generally south of Highway 60.

Overall Rain Amounts: Not going to be a drought buster by any means, unfortunately. It's actually not out of the question that some areas, especially south of I-44, get no rain at all with this system due to the scattered, broken nature of storm coverage. With PW values 1.6-1.7" along the front, very small bullseyes of 1.5+ inches of rain will be possible with deep convective cells, but would be the exception, not the rule. Most areas have a >60% chance of seeing at least 0.25" through Monday night from the NBM, but the HREF is far more conservative and keeps >0.25" chances to 30% or less south of I-44 (though this may be an artifact from how dry the 00Z CAMs came in).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The front should be through the region with northwesterly flow in place by Tuesday, and it will be considerably cooler as a result. Highs Tuesday-Friday will be in the upper 70s to near 80 near the Arkansas/Missouri border, and in the low to mid-70s north into central Missouri. Overnight lows will even drop into the mid- to low 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with the lower terrain in the eastern Ozarks likely to drop below 50 degrees overnight this week! The air mass that settles in behind the front won't be overly dry either, which should prevent afternoon RHs from dropping below 40% in the afternoons most days this week as well.

Ridging aloft will build back across the Southern Plains after the frontal passage early in the week, but our region should generally remain in northerly flow with the heart of the ridge to our southwest. This should keep temperatures stable through the week, rather than the warming trend we often see when ridging puts us in southwesterly flow. However, this does mean there is a signal that we will remain dry through at least the end of the work week, which will support further worsening of drought conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Clouds will increase during the day Sunday however rain chances remain low. Have only included prob30 groups both in the morning and again in the evening at the sites. Confidence in thunderstorm chances and timing remains low with additional updates likely. There is a trend towards slightly higher chances Sunday night. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest Sunday with a wind shift to the north Sunday evening. Sunday morning could feature brief wind shifts to the northwest at JLN and SGF as a weak boundary moves through however given the uncertain timing of this have opted not to include a prevailing line for this.

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 20: KSGF: 97/1954 KJLN: 99/1954 KVIH: 95/1954 KUNO: 97/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 20: KSGF: 74/2018 KJLN: 75/1980 KUNO: 74/2018 KVIH: 73/2018

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.