textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A drier air mass is in place across the area behind the front that moved through the area yesterday. Dewpoints currently range from the middle 50s across central MO to around 60 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Highs today will range from around 80 across central Missouri to the lower 90s across far southwestern Missouri.

An upper level disturbance is currently moving south towards the area this afternoon. Mid to high level clouds will continue to increase from north to south into this evening as the disturbance moves south. Some light rain showers will be possible at times late this afternoon and this evening as the disturbance moves south through the region. Rainfall amounts will generally be a trace to a few hundredths of an inch with the showers this evening as a drier air mass will remain in place across the area.

Tonight into Monday morning moisture will start to advect back into the region from the southwest. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2" from the southwest tonight into Monday morning across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, as the moisture starts to advect into the region. MUCAPE values of around 500 to 1000 J/kg will also develop within the area of advection tonight into Monday morning, generally along and west of Highway 65, with weaker instability to the east. A low level jet will increase across the southwestern portions of the area which will result in isentropic lift increasing. As this occurs, a band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region from the northwest to the southeast on the noise of the low level jet. Storm motions and 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be to the southeast which will be parallel to the lift. Therefore, some locally heavy rainfall will occur with the increase in moisture and some potential for training. Some of the short term models keep the lift more stationary across the western portions of the area which would result in more prolong training potential, while others slowly push the lift/advection to the northeast through the area. Localized areas of 2 to locally 4" of rainfall will be possible in bands and if more training of storms can occur, localized amount up to 6" could be possible. Outside the bands, rainfall amounts will likely drop off sharply. With the potential for higher rainfall rates and training, there will be a localized flooding risk within the heavier bands of rain tonight into Monday morning, generally between 4 to 10am. Some lingering showers could occur into mid day, but the heaviest should be overnight into the mid morning hours.

Deep layer shear will increase across the area tonight into Monday morning, MUCAPE will be more modest but a few strong storms will be possible with scattered damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph as the main severe risk, and hail to the size of quarters a secondary risk. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk across the western portions of the area tonight mainly west of Highway 65. Instability will be weaker to the east, but some non severe thunderstorms will be possible east of Highway 65 with coverage decreasing further to the east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this week. The ensemble model members show a couple upper level disturbances moving through the northwest flow bringing some chances (20-30%) chances for storms at times mid week and again late week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Mid and high-level clouds with intermittent light rain showers are currently overspreading the TAF sites. This is expected to continue through at least 08Z. Between 08-18Z, a relatively narrow line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop somewhere near JLN and stretch toward somewhere near BBG. The line is expected to be rather narrow and train over the same area (so not move very much), limiting confidence in if the band will actually impact a TAF site. Latest guidance suggests JLN has the best chances of seeing impacts, with BBG the second-best chance, and a lower-end chance that SGF sees impacts. These confidence levels are outlined as FM/TEMPO/PROB30s in the TAFs. The impacts would come mainly in the form of lightning and torrential rain, but a few instances of small hail cannot be ruled out.

After 15-18Z, rain will clear, and high clouds will be leftover with 8-12 kt southeasterly winds for the rest of the TAF period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.