textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances (10-30%) late this afternoon and evening, transitioning to drizzle tonight into Friday.

- Increasing confidence in the potential for areas of frost and freeze this weekend. Lows each morning in the upper 20s and 30s.

- Warming trend returns early next week, with a return of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Today-Tonight: A mid-level trough and associated shortwave build out of the Southern Plains today. Moisture return looks limited, with a rather diffuse frontal passage expected across the region. Ahead of the front, highs reach into the 60s today, with the warmest temperatures across southern MO. Cloud cover increases ahead of the approaching shortwave, with PoPs limited to 10-30%. Initial onset of scattered light showers will be confined to southeast KS and southwest MO late this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts look to remain limited to a few hundredths of less. Several areas remain dry through this evening. Further north and east, the lift looks to remain marginal at best. This will limit the extent of PoP coverage through this evening. However, as cloud ice dissipates and low- level moisture filters in, drizzle looks to overspread the Ozark Plateau. Breezy north- northwest winds filter in a cooler airmass tonight into Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Friday: Behind the frontal passage, low-level moisture remains trapped below a sharp inversion. This may allow for drizzle and low- level clouds to persist through Friday. The longer the clouds/drizzle linger, the cooler high temperatures reach on Friday afternoon. Currently, highs are only progged to reach into the 50s, though may end up a bit cooler. By Friday night, clouds dissipate as light north winds settle into the area. This will set the stage for a cold night, with lows falling into the 30s. Recent trends would suggest increasing confidence in widespread frost, with a freeze likely in the eastern Ozarks. A freeze remains possible in other parts of the area, particularly in the sheltered valleys. Frost and freeze headlines will be needed in subsequent forecasts. However, it is plausible low- level cloud cover inhibits frost/freeze concerns for Friday night into Saturday morning, that will need monitored closely over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Saturday-Sunday: Cooler temperatures persist on Saturday with highs in the middle 50s. This will be accompanied by dry weather. Clearing skies into Saturday night set the stage for additional frost/freeze concerns.

A bit warmer into the lower/middle 60s on Sunday, before yet another chilly night into Monday morning. This will likely be the last potential morning for frost/freeze with a warming trend expected through mid next week.

Early Next Week: Ensemble guidance are slowly coming into better agreement into next week, with a ridge of high pressure overspreading the central CONUS. This will support increasing mid-level heights, and thus a warming trend. Temperatures are progged to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with daily highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will be accompanied by another dry stretch of weather, further amplifying drought conditions and potential Fall fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR flight conditions through the afternoon and evening, with a low chance (10-20%) for light rain and drizzle this evening/tonight. This is captured with a PROB30 group at KSGF and KJLN. This may introduce instances of MVFR flight conditions. Otherwise, expecting increasing cloud cover with the approaching frontal passage. West- southwest winds become northwesterly behind the frontal passage later today.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.