textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning.

- Excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a shortwave currently pushing over western Missouri and interacting with low/mid level moisture and increased instability for scattered convection over the eastern CWA. Morning soundings and CAM forecast soundings are favorable for hail development with this convection and have had a few severe warnings for this already. Another strong upper low and jet streak were moving east across the northern and central great basin region eastward into the northern and central Rockies. West-southwest flow aloft was occurring ahead of this feature west of the previously mentioned shortwave over western MO.

This afternoon into tonight: CAMS are indicating the scattered strong to severe convection over the eastern Ozarks lingering through the afternoon before exiting the region to the east/southeast. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. The remainder of the night should generally be free of storms with the shortwave passing to the east.

Friday-Friday night: Things are coming together for another round of severe storms late Friday into Friday night. The large scale trough will shift east into the plains during the day Friday and gusty low level winds will draw Gulf moisture back into the area ahead of the surface front and upper wave. Instability will be increasing throughout the day. By late afternoon surface based CAPES from 1500-2500 j/kg develop along and ahead of the front with 0-6km shear of 35-45kts over our western CWA. CAMS are showing the potential for some supercell activity out ahead of the front in the western CWA and west of the CWA prior to a squall line developing and pushing through the area during the evening into the overnight hours. Shear increases significantly during the evening with curved hodographs and helicity values getting over 300-400. All modes of severe storms will be possible, especially early in the evolution. When the squall line moves through the primary severe risk will become damaging wind with the potential remaining for embedded spin up tornadoes within the squall line. In addition to the severe storm potential, heavy rain will accompany the storms, on top of what the area received yesterday and last night which may lead to a flooding risk, especially if storms train across the same locations.

Saturday: The front should be through most if not all of the CWA by 12z Saturday morning with a few remaining showers possible early in the morning. A cooler and drier air mass will then move in behind the front throughout the day on Saturday with highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Cold temperatures Saturday night: The high pressure system at the surface will be over the area with a dry air mass in place. Temperatures are expected to dip into the mid 30s for lows with 25th-75th percentile temperatures ranging from the low to upper 30s. Will need to continue monitoring this for a minor frost potential.

Sunday-Wednesday: Expecting generally dry conditions through the period with a warming trend back into the 70s for highs by Monday and lows back in the 50s by Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the overnight hours into the day on Friday with passing high clouds. There is a 20 percent chance of a thunderstorm across southwest Missouri Friday morning however confidence is too low to include at this time. Confidence is high that a line of thunderstorms will approach the TAF sites Friday night and have included a prevailing line to account for this. Some of these storms will be severe with damaging winds. Until then, winds will remain southerly with gusts around 25-30kts during the day Friday. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites tonight and again Friday night.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.