textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible across portions of central Missouri early this morning mainly north of Highway 54. Additional fog development will be possible mainly east Highway 65 tonight into Saturday morning. - Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue across portions of south central Missouri early this morning. There is the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms redeveloping southeast of a Branson to Salem Missouri line late this morning into this afternoon.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of east central Kansas into Central Missouri Saturday and Saturday night.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week as highs in the 90s return.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is moving east across portions of northern Arkansas into southeastern Missouri early this morning. This activity is mainly remaining south and east of the area, but may continue to just clip the far southern portions of the area early this morning.

Fog has developed across portions of central Missouri early this morning. The better fog potential will remain north of the area but some patchy dense fog will be possible mainly along and north of the Highway 54 corridor early this morning.

An upper level shortwave trough is moving southeast towards the area currently and will move through the area today. A drier air mass in the mid level of the atmosphere is advecting into the area from the northwest. As the trough moves across the area today a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning into this afternoon, mainly southeast of a Branson to Salem Missouri line will better mid level moisture will be in place. The drier air mass in the mid levels will limit the potential to the west across the rest of the area today. Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the hazards with any storm that is able to develop today. Coverage will remain limited and most locations will likely remain dry with the activity this afternoon. The drier air mass will continue to advect to the east across the area today ending the rain chances from east to west by this evening. This evening the drier air mass should be in place across much of the area except maybe for far south central MO where there is a low chance for a lingering isolated storm to occur into this evening.

Tonight the upper level shortwave trough will push off the east as an upper level ridge builds across the plains. Warm air advection will start to occur from west to east tonight into Saturday. Skies will clear and winds will be light tonight into Saturday morning. There will be the potential for fog development again tonight into Saturday morning mainly along and east of Highway 65, east of the warm air advection. Some patchy dense fog could be possible as lows drop into the lower to middle 60s across the eastern Ozarks. Highs this afternoon will range from the lower 80s across the eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Warm air advection will occur across the area on Saturday as highs warm into the upper 80s to the middle 90s. Moisture will also start to advect into the area from west to east Saturday into Saturday night. Instability will increase across the area Saturday afternoon with the heating of a day. Lift will be limited across the area but the cap should start to weaken Saturday afternoon. There will be the potential for a few isolated storms developing Saturday afternoon/early evening mainly west of Highway 65, as the cap will likely be stronger to the east and the drier air mass may remain in place into the afternoon hours across the eastern Ozarks. Storm coverage will likely be limited due to the weak lift therefore, most locations will likely remain dry Saturday afternoon. If isolated storms can develop there would be the potential for a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds the main risk due to the increasing instability and Theta-E difference Saturday afternoon across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri. If a storm can develop and produce an outflow, the low level flow would support additional storm development on the outflow to the east/southeast.

Saturday evening additional storm development will be possible across central Kansas into northern Missouri. This activity could develop into a complex of storms and track east southeast and move into portions of the area late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. The exact track will be dependent on exactly where storms develop and if the cold pools can congeal and storms developing into a complex. The storm motion would support a complex of storms moving east/southeast Saturday night. Therefore, the further west storms develop the better potential more of the area is impacted, then further to the east and north would limit the potential. The better lift will remain to the north of the area but if a strong cold pool can develop low level wind flow and MUCAPE would support a complex of storms maintaining to the southeast into the area, again the exact track and locations impacted will be dependent on a complex of storms developing and exactly where one develops. There will also be the potential for some strong to severe storms with damaging winds the main risk with the Saturday night storms too.

Highs are expected to warm into the 90s again Sunday into early next week. The ensemble model members are trending more towards keeping the front further north through the middle of next week, which would keep highs in the 90s through the middle of next week. The front may then push into the area late next week but there remains difference in the timing between the model members. There could be some scattered shower and storm chances at times early/middle of next week, but with the front remaining further north the widespread rain potential may remain more limited to the front can move into and through the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Patchy fog has develop across portions of southeastern Kansas into western Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will likely vary with time and should improve by the mid morning hours. These low visibilities will impact the KJLN site early in the TAF period.

An area of showers is currently moving east across northern Arkansas into portions of south central and southeastern Missouri early this morning. This activity will remain south and east of the TAF sites this morning but a low level stratus cloud deck is moving north into portions of southern/south central MO with IFR to LIFR ceilings. These lower clouds will impact the KBBG site early in the TAF period. It is possible these lower clouds make it as far north and west as the KSGF site but the better potential will be just south and east of the site.

There is a low chance for some isolated storms this afternoon across south central MO on to the south. This activity could clip the KBBG site but confidence was too low to include any mention of convection in the TAF at this time.

A drier air mass will move into the area from west to east today and VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening. There is some fog potential tonight into Saturday morning, mainly east of the TAF sites.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.