textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for thunderstorms (50-70%) Friday afternoon/evening. SPC Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 out of 5) with hail up to half dollars and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Warming trend incoming with highs in the 70s and 80s through Saturday. Brief period of cooler temperatures then occurs Sunday and Monday before 70s and 80s return for next week.

- Another chance for rain and a few rumbles of thunder (20-50%) returns Saturday night into Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts a belt of mid-level dry air just south of the Missouri border, stretching from an obvious closed low in southern Arizona eastward into Virginia/North Carolina. The belt of dry air aligns with an upper-level jet streak at the base of broad troughing over the entire north- central and northeast CONUS. Right entrance region dynamics are placed over our region, contributing to sinking air and mostly clear skies save for boundary-layer turbulence cumulus.

Cooler today, back to near normal temperatures Friday:

Despite the clear skies and renewed southwesterly flow, the cool air mass in place will be slow to depart with highs only reaching the middle to upper 60s. Lows will still be chilly, but a bit warmer as the southwesterly winds advect in warmer air. Readings should range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s, with the lowest readings in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks. Increased winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph Friday will then warm temperatures up to the middle 70s.

Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon into the evening:

A weak cold front is forecast to drop through the area Friday afternoon and evening as a clipper shortwave trough drops through the background northwest flow. Thanks to the stronger southwesterly flow, modest moisture will return to the area ahead of the front. As such, there is a 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area. HREF paintballs show that almost all members have slowed the front progression from the previous forecast package, delaying timing of precipitation a bit. The earliest time of arrival for areas north of I-44 would be between 2 and 6 PM, between 4 and 7 PM for areas along the I-44 corridor, and between 6 and 8 PM for areas south of I-44. CAMs suggest a broken line of thunderstorms that would last maybe up to 1-2 hours at any given location. Due to the weak cold front basically disintegrating as it moves through our area, no drop in temperatures is expected with lows Friday night in the lower 50s.

Dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be meager with the HREF mean showing values of 55-60 F, producing widespread 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg north of I-44 where the better moisture will be. With enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft, deep-layer shear will be plentiful at 50-60 kts. Therefore, any storm will have the potential to become severe. However, the cold front dropping through should be weakening, and with marginal instability, severity of any storm should not be particularly high. Sounding profiles show most storms to be elevated (or at least high-based due to the meager moisture). Therefore, large hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards. Maximum hail size is a bit uncertain. Modest and thin instability profiles, weak flow aloft, and lowered storm depth should keep much of the storms's max hail size around quarters. However, with strong shear and 6-7 C/km lapse rates leading to a Large Hail Parameter of 4-8, any supercell that is able to become established could produce up to ping pongs to golf balls. Will be a tad conservative for now with max size of half dollars until confidence in supercells increases.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Stronger cold front brings rain chances Saturday night:

Another clipper shortwave drops down through the flow Saturday night through Sunday, bringing a stronger surface cold front with it. Global models have had a tough time with timing of this system, which ties to instability concerns. REFS and LREF consensus suggest instability should be weak, bringing mainly showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two with the front (20-50% chance across the area Saturday night through Sunday evening).

Briefly cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday:

The cold front will bring cooler temperatures Sunday with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s and lows in the lower to middle 40s Sunday night. Continued northwesterly flow, but slightly rising heights aloft, will re-initiate southerly flow Monday, beginning another warming trend with highs in the middle 70s Monday.

Back to the 70s and 80s for at least the middle of next week:

The synoptic pattern barely budges into next week with persistent northwesterly flow. Shortwaves will continue to drop through the flow, locally increasing heights before briefly decreasing them. This will lead to a persistent warm up with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the middle 50s.

LREF clusters suggest the next shortwave system to move through sometime Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Timing of the wave is still in flux. The LREF joint probability for MUCAPE >750 J/kg and 0-6 km shear >35 kts is upwards of 40-60% chance, depicting a decent chance for a severe environment with this system. However, adding precipitation values >0.01" to the join probability drops it to 10-20%, suggesting a cap may be in place with this system. Details will become clearer as we get closer, but the uncertainties just discussed lead to current shower and thunderstorm chances at 15-30% Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through tonight and through much of Friday ahead of an approaching system. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots overnight, becoming more southwesterly on Friday morning with gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Clouds gradually overspread the area on Friday, with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 50 percent) late in the TAF period. Given the lower confidence on coverage, chances are being represented by a PROB30 group at this time for KJLN and KSGF.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.