textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Tornado Watch issued for areas along and near Highway 65 until 7 PM.

- Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM Monday the entire area. Quick 2-3 inch per hour downpours will promote a flash flooding risk for areas that see repeated storms. Total rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected, with spotty amounts up to 5-7 inches possible.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat- related impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today will be a bit soggy for some folks with a Flood Watch in effect from 1 PM today through 1 PM Monday for all the counties in our CWA. Rain will continue to move in from the south due to the incoming surface low pressure system. So far, the forecast is on track for flash flooding concerns today and tomorrow. The atmosphere is very tropical-like right now and is primed for a heavy rainfall event. Our PWATs from the 12z sounding came in at 1.74" which matches our max for this time of year. What is a bit different is how this flash flooding event may occur. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this will not be a widespread flash flooding event where everyone sees a ton of rain at once. This will be like a tropical disturbance in that the heaviest rain may fall in bands and may be localized to certain areas. The latest HREF LPMM has wider footprint of 2-3" of rain falling and a swatch of localized higher-end rainfall totals near 7-10" over SE KS and far SW MO. Though, the 7-10" outlier will be highly localized, so we'll stick to messaging the upper end 5-7" amount. The storms that will be coming through aren't necessarily slow moving, but may train over the same areas multiple times through the rest of today and into tomorrow. These storms are likely to be efficient rainfall producers and contain 2-3"/hr rain rates. The CAMs are also showing the potential for a backbuilding MCS tonight somewhere near SE KS and SW MO. The MCS potential really gets going once the LLJ kicks in overnight. This is likely the reason for the higher rainfall totals over in that area.

There is a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather today with mostly a tornado/wind risk. This is why a small/short-fused tornado watch has been issued until 7 PM tonight for counties along Highway 65 where the environment for tornadoes is maximized. This set up is messy, and these spin-ups will be very quick and brief. Shear and instability are becoming more favorable as the evening goes on and as the surface low moves northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night with the tornado threat winding down as diurnal heating decreases.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

High pressure starts to build in by Tuesday bringing us a period of dry and hot weather. This is when our first heatwave of the year will make its appearance. We will see heat indices reaching the lower 100s across the area for Tuesday through Thursday. Highs will be in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the 70s making it feel hot and humid. The heat risk for this heatwave is between Major and Extreme levels. This means that the heat will likely affect anyone without effective cooling and or adequate hydration. This is especially true with little to no overnight relief. Though, by the end of the week we will have a cold front move through and give us a break in the heat and bring us another round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is the potential to see some severe storms with this frontal passage as the CIPS/CSU severe probabilities highlight areas near central MO. Though, the better severe set up may be to our north over the Great Lakes region. Stay up to date with the latest forecast as we get closer to the event. Either way, we'll see highs about 10 degrees cooler in the 80s to end the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening and will bring heavy downpours to the area as well as MVFR ceilings and lowered visibilities. There is also a lightning risk with these storms through the period. Expect winds to remain out of the south with gusts up to 20 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.