textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will end this morning. Residual flooding of creeks and rivers will continue today.

- Much cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Low temperatures in the low to middle 30s Saturday night could cause frost formation.

- Rain chances increase (30-60%) by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a strong shortwave trough pushing through the central plains. A cold front was working through the area along with a band of showers and thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm threat has ended however lightning and heavy rainfall continues. Northwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph were occuring behind the front as a much cooler airmass builds in. Temps were falling into the upper 40s behind the front.

Showers and Thunderstorms Ending/Residual Flooding: The area of showers and storms will continue moving southeast early this morning, likely exiting the area around sunrise. Several area creeks and streams are either in flood stage or have elevated stream flows northwest of Interstate 44, especially across the Osage and Spring River basins. Residual flooding will be a concern today in these areas.

Much Cooler Day/ Frost Potential Tonight: HREF guidance suggests that clouds should clear the area this morning with mostly clear skies for the rest of the day. Low level cold air advection will battle the increasing sun angle with afternoon highs expected to reach the upper 50s to around 60. However gusty northwest winds to 30mph will make it feel colder.

Surface high pressure looks to settle west of the area late tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for temps to fall rapidly tonight. Latest NBM guidance suggests temps will drop into the 30s however there is uncertainty on how low. NBM generally has a 35-38 degree range (25th/75th percentile) for the Springfield area however sheltered or wind protected areas may drop a little lower (however not expecting freezing temps). Confidence is just not high enough to issue a Frost Advisory at this time, however there will likely be a few spots that have some patchy frost Saturday night into Sunday morning. If temps trend colder then a short fuse Frost Advisory may be needed with future updates.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Mostly Dry and Mild through mid week: Ensembles suggest that a general northwest flow aloft will continue next week however the lower level flow will become more southwesterly which will allow for increasing temps. Temps look to warm a little bit each day with 70s likely for highs. Rain chances remain less than 10 percent through Wednesday.

Rain Chances Thursday/Friday: Ensembles do suggest a large trough will move into the Rockies during this time. This pattern looks to set up our next rain/thunderstorm chances. CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning probs do suggest the potential for severe weather across the central/southern plains however predictability in finer details is low for our area at this time range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Skies will continue to clear out this morning with VFR conditions expected through the day. BBG will take a little longer to improve this morning. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest with gusts around 25kts. Winds will then become light tonight with a turn to the south.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.