textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers late this afternoon through tonight along and northeast of a Mountain View to Stockton line. Snow showers may result in rapidly decreasing visibilities that produce briefly hazardous driving conditions.

- Cold weather arrives this weekend. Overnight wind chills are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero Saturday night.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Saturday and especially Sunday when low humidity values are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A narrow band of light snow along a cold front was diminishing as it was pushing southeast into southeast Missouri early this afternoon. Water vapor imagery nicely depicts upper-level shortwaves embedded within the longwave trough spinning over North Dakota and the Great Lakes.

We've seen some partial clearing behind this front, though residual moisture behind it has allowed for additional cloud development. These clouds along with slightly weaker than expected flow aloft has prompted us to lower our wind forecast this afternoon. However, breezy northwest gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with perhaps an isolated gust or two closer to 35 mph.

Snow Showers this Evening:

Attention will then turn to the potential for isolated to scattered showers late this afternoon and evening. As the aforementioned shortwave dives southeast into the area, RAP output depicts a layer of 900 to 800 mb frontogenesis coincident with the increased lift. Forecast soundings show an initially dry profile moistening in the mid-levels throughout the evening, which may allow for these showers to take on a convective nature. Temperatures will gradually decrease throughout the evening, approaching the freezing mark after sunset. However, given the antecedent dry low levels, wet bulb temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing sooner, which should foster a quicker transition of rain to snow. The strongest showers will be capable of quick bursts of moderate snow, and along with the breezy winds, result in brief periods of reduced visibility. Ground temperatures remain unseasonably warm, but snow will stick to the ground if rates are high enough. CAMs continue to show this activity being isolated to scattered in nature as it approaches the forecast area, and most locations here will see little to no impacts. However, for those locations that do experience these heavier showers, briefly hazardous travel conditions will be possible. The most likely timing and location for any travel impacts will be between 6 pm and 11 pm northeast of a Mountain View to Stockton line.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cold this Weekend:

Temperatures will continue to drop behind a secondary cold front on Saturday. In fact, many locations will struggle to get above the freezing mark at all. Overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday will drop to near 10 degrees areawide, and along with 5 to 10 mph winds, wind chills will be in the single digits above and below zero.

Fire Weather Concerns on Sunday:

Slight mid-level height rises on Sunday will allow for temperatures to rise closer toward more seasonable normals. Moisture return will be almost non-existent through Sunday afternoon, and afternoon dew point recovery will be very low with single digit dew points persisting into the afternoon. Deterministic NBM relative humidities are in the 20 to 25% range for much of the area, and we may see these values creep lower as models get a better handle on the mixing potential in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds appear to be the biggest question mark when it comes to the level of fire danger on Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest the mixing layer will not be particularly deep, but a decent surface pressure gradient and 40 to 50 kt 850 mb flow overhead may support increased winds. Latest LREF joint probabilities of RH < 25% and sustained winds > 20 mph (Red Flag Warning criteria) are in the 20 to 25% range west of Highway 65 where the strongest winds are forecast. A Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warning will be considered in the future.

Warming up Next Week:

Global models show consensus in bringing another shortwave through the area Sunday night into Monday. While dry, this wave will bring another shot of cold air for Monday. Beyond that, the shortwave will shift east, and a warmer airmass will advect into the region as a more zonal upper-level pattern takes shape. Ensemble clusters depict increasingly divergent solutions in their handling of the evolution of the jet stream by Thursday, however. This uncertainty is illustrated well by the increasing NBM temperature spreads after this period, with interquartile ranges of 15 to 20 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions have been observed across Missouri at the start of the TAF period with isolated MVFR ceilings along a passing cold front. Winds will prevail out of the northwest with occasional gusts near 25 kt this afternoon.

Isolated snow showers will be possible closer to 00Z this evening mainly across the eastern Ozarks which could briefly reduce visibilities to IFR levels. While it is not completely out of the question one of these showers moves over the terminals, the probability was too low to include in the current TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.