textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms will move from southwest to northeast across the Ozarks through this evening.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend with highs returning to the 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees. Hottest conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100, lows in the mid to upper 70s, and heat index values around 100-108.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Surface high pressure centered over Louisiana was producing flow up and over the high with moisture moving from the Gulf into the Plains and the Ozarks. The increased moisture and diurnal heating were acting to produce isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across portions of the area. This activity will continue through sunset with coverage decreasing rapidly after sunset. Lightning will be the only hazard with this activity. Look for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The overall patter will see little change into Saturday with continued potential for isolated showers and storms during the afternoon and evening though most locations should remain dry. Warmer air will begin to move into the region with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat index values of in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The heat will continue to build in to the region Sunday and into early next week with the warmest temperatures and heat indicies peaking on Monday and Tuesday.

Highs on Sunday will climb into the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100. A few showers will be possible again Sunday afternoon. By Monday and Tuesday highs will be in mid 90s to around 100 with heat index values of 100-108 thanks to continued moisture advection and 850mb temperatures forecast in 23-25 degrees C range. HeatRisk outputs continue to show values of moderate to major. Will monitor this period closely for any needed heat headlines.

A cold front will move through the region late in the day Tuesday, which will bring some relief from the heat for Wednesday into the end of next week though little rain potential is noted in the models with this frontal passage. This will then bring a pattern chance with northwesterly flow aloft across the region. While this will bring more moderate temperatures to the region with highs in the upper 80s to around 90, the pattern will also bring the potential for thunderstorm complexes and rounds showers and storms heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Isolated showers and storms will occur across portions of the region this afternoon and evening. As a result of the isolated nature of any showers or storms, mainly VFR conditions are expected, but could see temporary lowered conditions under any convection.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.