textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) return Thursday evening into Friday. Low to medium confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall. There are still remaining uncertainties.

- Daily chances exist for showers and strong to severe thunderstorms through the weekend.

- Will have to monitor for excessive rainfall later this week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Upper air analysis shows the area in northwesterly flow aloft as the upper level ridge continues to build over the Plains and the upper level shortwave trough pushes further southeast near MS/AL. Satellite imagery showcased an expansive stratus deck extending from western MO down through southern TX, with observations showing low level clouds around 1500-2500ft underneath. As the early morning continues, cloud cover is expected to continue increasing across the area before lifting back out by the afternoon/evening. This is the result of southwesterly surface winds, as streamlines showcase surface winds ushering more moisture into the region from the Gulf as air filters around a surface high located east of the ArkLaTex region.

With the added cloud cover, high temperatures will be slightly lower than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. The added moisture will allow dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s, leading to a slightly more humid feel to the day.

For tonight, overnight lows will remain in the low 50s over portions of the eastern Ozarks, and in the upper 50s/low 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Thursday will mark the beginning of a pattern change, as an upper level trough pushes through the western CONUS, projecting several spokes of upper level energy through the region towards the end of the week and through the weekend. A surface low is progged to develop in southern Canada, dragging an associated cold front through the Plains during the day on Thursday, with a secondary surface low developing over the Southern Plains. Right now, timing continues to have some uncertainties, however we're still thinking storms could reach our northwest area by late Thursday, pushing through into Friday morning for this first round. Despite all modes of severe weather possible, the most probable hazard looks to be damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk area to include areas along/northwest of a northern Benton County to Morgan County line, with the higher areas of instability and better chances of severe weather remaining north/northwest of the area.

Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis through the weekend as disturbances push through. SPC continues to highlight portions of the area in severe outlooks, however much of the specifics of this activity (i.e. location, severity, etc.) will be dependent on the previous days convection, so high uncertainty exists. Sunday/Monday does look like the better day for strong to severe weather as a more prominent shortwave approaches the region. A resultant surface low is progged to develop over the OK panhandle, lifting a warm front northeast and placing the area in the warm sector for Monday before a cold front sweeps through. With this still being several days out, lots of uncertainty in the models exists, so we'll need to continue monitoring trends to get a better handle on this system moving forward.

We'll also need to monitor the flooding potential, as multiple rounds of rainfall are expected over already saturated soils. Increased chances in excessive rainfall exists over areas primarily west of Highway 65, with WPC highlighting a large portion of our area in Marginal (level 1/4) risks daily through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An expansive stratus deck extending from northern MO down through southern TX can be seen on satellite imagery, with observations showing MVFR to IFR ceilings affecting the terminals. These lowered ceilings are expected to continue through this morning before improving back to VFR this afternoon generally between 19Z-21Z.

Otherwise, south-southwesterly surface winds will gust up to 20kts primarily at KJLN today, with gusts up to 25-30kts possible at all terminals beyond the TAF period for Thursday afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.