textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy light fog possible this morning. Dense fog chances are currently low (< 15%), but any places that do see localized dense fog could see a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces.

- Snow melt continues today with warmer temperatures expected. Highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

- 15 to 25% light rain or drizzle chances across the eastern Ozarks on Tuesday. Low confidence is a brief period of light freezing drizzle possible during the early morning.

- After briefly cooler temperatures mid-week, temperatures warm to above average for the late week into next weekend with dry weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

This Morning-Tonight: Another cold start this morning with temperatures in the teens to lower 20s, with winds beginning to turn out of the south- southeast. Moisture is gradually on the increase through the morning into the afternoon as a aforementioned warm front lifts through the area. Fog has struggled to develop this morning as a result of dry air that remains in place over the area. The latest HREF guidance still suggested some localized areas of light fog to develop through early morning, but is expected to remain limited in coverage and visibility reductions. There is only around a 30% chance for visibilities to drop below 3 miles, with the greatest chances focused west of Highway 65. Any light fog that does develop should not pose a freezing fog/light glaze. Dense fog potential is very low (< 10%). Most of the area remains cold and quiet through this morning.

By this afternoon, temperatures will be on the warming trend has mid-level height rises nudge into the area. Forecast temperatures are progged to reach into the middle/upper 40s (north and east) to lower/middle 50s (south and west). There is still a bit of lingering uncertainty on high temperatures due the existing snowpack and increasing cloud cover this afternoon, that may keep prevent us from reaching the forecast highs. Nonetheless, temperatures above freezing areawide will support additional snowmelt to begin the week. Lows tonight fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tuesday: A dip in the jet stream on Tuesday with an associated shortwave will bring a quick return of cooler temperatures and low precipitation chances. As a cold front drops south into the area on Tuesday morning, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out some light precipitation. Given the surface temperatures around or just below freezing on Tuesday morning, there is a low chance (15-25%) for a wintry mix of light drizzle and freezing drizzle. The exact precipitation type would be a result of the surface temperatures, and thus the timing of any precipitation. Most of the guidance is leaning towards light drizzle at best, with the PoPs clipping portions of the eastern Ozarks. Better precipitation chances remain east of the area on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday fall back into the upper 30s (north) to middle/upper 40s (south).

Wednesday: The chilliest day of the week comes on Wednesday with the axis of the trough diving through the southeast CONUS. This will support a return of highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s with a brisk northerly wind.

Thursday-Sunday: The cooler temperatures are short-lived as ensemble guidance depicts a building ridge to the west of the area. A warming trend is expected as the ridge and rising heights overspread the area through late week into next weekend. This will support temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal as we progress into the weekend. There is still some uncertainty on the positioning of the ridge and its eastern extent into the area. Nonetheless, temperatures are forecast to vary from upper 40s to upper 50s, to perhaps 60 in far southeast KS and southern MO this weekend. This pattern reinforces high confidence in little to no precipitation chances through the end of the week and next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light south-southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots through tonight, becoming more westerly late in the TAF period ahead of an approaching front. Mid to high level clouds increase through tonight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.