textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record temperatures today with highs in the mid 90s.

- A Flood Watch goes into effect tonight at 10 PM until 7 PM Thursday as showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system.

- Pattern change incoming with high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. Patchy frost may occur Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

High pressure overhead for one more day before our pattern change arrives. The remnants of a tropical system will combine with an upper-level low pressure system to bring us shower and thunderstorm chances for the end of the week. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas north of I-44 starting tonight at 10 PM and continuing until 7 PM Thursday night. Forecast rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with localized higher amounts near 5 inches possible. This will be a tropical type of airmass coming in, which means these showers will be efficient rainfall producers and can drop a large amount of rain in a short amount of time. This is especially true if convection trains over the same areas throughout the duration of this event. Be mindful of flooding at night and do not drive through flooded roadways especially low-water crossings. Rain showers will be intermittent and there will be breaks over the next couple of days.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with this system. There is a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather late tonight mainly north of I-44 closer towards the front. There is another chance for severe weather Wednesday late evening with a small area of a Slight risk (2/5) being introduced by SPC over far SW MO. Main threats are still 60 mph winds and localized heavy rainfall. However, there is a low-end tornado threat over far SW MO in the Slight risk area. This due to the surface low moving up from NE OK and an abundant amount of southwesterly 0-6km and 0-3km bulk shear in an uncapped environment. Any storms that become super-cellular are forecast to merge into a line segment as they push through the SW portion of our area. In this is where the low-end tornado threat lies. All the ingredients for severe weather will be available throughout Wednesday, it's just if they can align perfectly to produce strong/severe storms. There may be a few rumbles of thunder throughout Wednesday, but don't assume that every thunderstorm will be severe tomorrow, because they more than likely will not be. This is mostly due to the cloud cover and inability for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Rain will continue intermittently through Thursday and will slowly taper off late Thursday night. Expect winds to remain elevated through the rest of the week at at least 20 mph during the daytime hours. Our cold front moves through by Friday morning and we will feel the cold air advection with this front. Winds flip out of the north and we'll feel a brisk gusty wind near 35 mph with mostly cloudy skies to start Friday and it'll feel chilly with morning temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Clouds clear throughout the day and temperatures only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area making it truly feel like fall.

These fall-like temperatures stick around through the weekend with a chance for our first frost possible on Saturday morning with lows dipping into the mid 30s in a few places. Highs stick in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s through the weekend as high pressure builds back over the area. No rain is expected for the start of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the first 6 hours of the TAF period. An area of showers and thunderstorms will likely approach the area from the west after 06z however confidence in exact start times are uncertain. Highest confidence is after 09z, lasting through the morning hours. Have gone with prevailing TSRA groups along with MVFR ceilings. Will have to monitor for the potential of brief IFR ceilings/vis in the heavier storms. Rain may linger through early afternoon.

Winds will start out southerly with a shift to the northwest as storms arrive overnight. Northwest winds will likely linger into mid day with variable winds then for the rest of Wednesday. There is the potential for severe storms with damaging winds overnight, mainly from SGF and points west towards JLN.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088-089.