textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire conditions are expected through the afternoon hours today, due to the combination of warm temperatures in the 70s, low relative humidity values of 20-35%, and some wind gusts up to 30 mph at times.

- Scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two will be possible today. Not all locations will be impacted and rainfall amounts will be light with any showers that do develop.

- Widespread precipitation chances (70-90%) Sunday into Monday morning as a cold front moves into the area. A brief mix of rain and snow will be possible in central Missouri with little to no impact expected.

- Active pattern continues after this weekend into the middle of March. There is a risk for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, flooding, and potential severe weather mid to late next week into the following week (March 4-11).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor and upper level analysis show a split flow over the CONUS with a closed low in the Pacific west of the California coast with the main flow south of the low into the southern plains, lower Mississippi valley and southeast U.S. The northern stream flow was cyclonic around low pressure over Hudson Bay bringing northwest to westerly flow from the northern plains into the Great Lakes. Closer to the ground, a frontal boundary remains over the region and was gradually beginning to lift slightly north again with southwesterly winds developing over southwest portions of the CWA. Low levels remain quite dry with humidity levels in the 20s and 30s across most of the area. Most of the wind gusts so far have remained below 25 mph. Scattered light showers have moved into the area this morning and continue this afternoon. Some elevated instability led to some isolated lightning strikes.

Rest of this afternoon: Temperatures may have quite the range this afternoon. In the south we could see upper 70s to low 80s, but in the north with more cloud cover and on the other side of the front mid to upper 60s are more likely. Afternoon humidity levels in the south and west may drop into the 20 to 25 percent range and wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible in the west which will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions mainly in the western forecast area. Scattered showers and maybe some isolated thunder with elevated instability this afternoon into the early evening with some shortwave energy and the surface boundary. Precipitation amounts look light and will be scattered where not everyone will receive precipitation.

Tonight: Cold front will sink south through the area with temperatures dropping to around 30 in the north to the mid 40s in the south.

Sunday: Southern stream starts becoming active with shortwave/jet energy beginning to move into the area by midday Sunday. Moisture will begin to lift back into the area with an inverted trough nosing into the area northeast of a surface low in Oklahoma. Rain should begin to overspread the area during the afternoon Sunday. Cloud cover, rain and being in the cool side of the front will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler on Sunday compared to today, with highs from the mid 40s north to around 60 in the far south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

By Sunday night, a low level jet will begin to set up over northern Arkansas into southern Missouri which will enhance the overrunning precipitation over the area. Coldest air will remain north of the CWA and we are expecting mostly rain for our CWA. Can't rule out a rain/snow mix over our far northern CWA as temperatures dip into the mid 30s there towards morning, while upper 30s and low 40s are expected over our central and southern counties. Even if there is a mix or changeover to snow, it is not expected to be impactful over our CWA with warm ground temperatures.

Southern stream upper level pattern remains quite active over the area through the 7 day long term period and into next weekend and early the following week. We'll have to see how things evolve over the next couple of days, but a system Tuesday into Wednesday could bring the potential of some strong to severe storms over the central U.S. along with the continued chances of rain and possibly flooding. Temperatures remain well above normal into next weekend. Ensemble mean qpfs are similar between the ens/gefs/geps in showing precipiation totals of 3 to 4 inches over the 10 day forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

For the 18z TAFS, frontal boundary was meandering around the forecast area this morning but is expected to lift northward this afternoon with some southwest gusty winds developing in the southwestern portion of the area during the afternoon. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm with prob30 in during the afternoon to early evening, but should remain in VFR conditions through the period. Winds will become east-northeast during Sunday morning.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Recent drought and precipitation deficit has area streamflows and soil moisture running low going into this weekend. However, the upcoming pattern change and potential for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are beginning to signal that drought could be greatly reduced or eliminated in the coming weeks. There is still a lot of uncertainty related to how exactly this pattern shift will affect the Ozarks, but it is worth keeping an eye on streamflow projections and water model trends over the coming week to evaluate whether the rainfall will be sufficient enough to saturate the soils and push us over into flooding territory by next weekend.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.