textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Wednesday.

- A pattern change brings widespread rain to the area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Temperatures will cool to more seasonable normals in the 40s for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

After a cold front moved through the region last night and the morning fog dissipated, sunny skies and light southerly winds were allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 60s this afternoon. Some locations across far southern Missouri may even approach the 70 mark.

Surface high pressure in the Plains will slide east through tonight with the core of the high moving south of the Ozarks. This will help to keep clear skies, light winds and mild temperatures, in the middle to upper 30s in place overnight tonight.

As temperatures fall overnight, a low level inversion should develop as it did this morning. With the light winds, clear skies and cool temperatures along with lingering low level moisture, some areas of patchy fog may again develop. This should not be widespread and visibilities should be in the 3 to 5 mile range.

A shortwave upper level ridge will move across the Plains and Ozarks tomorrow, allowing temperatures to again climb into the 60s to near 70 degrees. By tomorrow afternoon the surface high will have moved well east of the region and surface winds will begin to increase a lee cyclogenesis begins to occur in response to a digging upper level trough. This trough will dig into southern New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley before lifting into the southern plains wednesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

As the above mentioned trough swings into the plains Wednesday night, increasing deep moisture will spread across the Plains and into the Ozarks in advance of the trough and a developing cold front. Rain, and isolated storms, are expected to spread into the region early Thursday morning with increasing coverage through the day.

As the surface low deepens and moves east and a cold front advances east the surface pressure gradient will increase across the area with gusty southerly winds expected through the day Thursday. Winds will shift to the west then northwest behind the front Thursday evening and night, and could be gusty at times especially in the evening hours.

Shear will increase across the area with the system but instability will be more limited with current models/CAMS indicating from 100 to 300 j/kg available with this system. With strong forcing and increased shear associated with the frontal passage, there could be some low potential for a strong to severe storm with wind the main risk.

The Cold front and surface low will then move fairly rapidly across the area Thursday with the surface low moving northeast into northern Missouri into Iowa Thursday night into Friday morning. This will bring a quite day for the region on Friday with highs in the 50s.

As the Thursday system moves through the area, another upper level reinforcing trough will keep the trough over the Four Corners region with another round of upper level energy ejecting into the plains Friday. This energy will then move east as the upper level ridge lifts and moves east into the plains.

Ensemble members remain in good(ish) agreement on brining additional, light, preciptiation with the system. Cooler temperatures will then filter into the Ozarks this weekend as highs only warm into the 40s and lows cool into the 20s Saturday and Sunday nights, which is more seasonable for early January.

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft early next week as upper level ridging develops across the west coast. Still above normal temperatures are expected as highs warm into the 50s again early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 449 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Expecting very similar conditions over the next 24 hours as what we've seen in the region over the previous 24 hours. Light southerly winds become variable under clear skies tonight, with efficient radiational cooling allowing for additional fog development during the overnight and especially early morning hours. Confidence is high in shallow, patchy ground fog forming overnight at the very least.

Confidence is lower (30-50%) in seeing MVFR or lower flight conditions at the TAF sites during the 10-15Z hours, with intensity of visibility reductions at these specific locations being the primary source of uncertainty. Since confidence falls between 30-50%, opted to leave sub-MVFR conditions out of the TAFs at this time. Whether or not IFR to LIFR conditions will need to be added to the morning hours will continue to be monitored as the next round of evening model guidance provides additional insight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.