textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures through the end of the week. Low potential for patchy frost exists in the eastern Ozarks tonight and Friday night.

- 15-20% chances for some light stratiform rain Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures are expected to warm back up to near or above average early next week. 15-30% shower and thunderstorm chances also return with this pattern change.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Cool, stable air is finally pushing into the area, ending our stretch of active weather. Water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts a broad and rather stable mid- and upper-leel low over Minnesota and Canada with broad zonal flow across the central CONUS. A shortwave trough is noted over Nevada/Arizona, but is forecast to become diffuse within the broader background flow. At the surface, the cold front has pushed just east and south of our CWA. Lingering moisture and lift behind the front has been producing drizzle which should dissipate by sunrise.

Dry with cooler than average temperatures starting today:

Northerly winds and associated cold air advection will keep highs below average for this time of year. Temperatures are forecast to peak somewhere in the middle 60s today. Some spots may even be a bit cooler as middle and high level clouds move in overhead.

Low frost potential in the eastern Ozarks tonight:

Late tonight, ensembles place the center of the surface high pressure over the eastern Ozarks. While NBM spreads keep low temperatures tonight in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with the surface high in place, weak winds and clear skies overnight will create a good setup for radiational cooling. Therefore, using some bias-corrected models, have decreased forecasted temperatures in the eastern Ozarks to the middle 30s. This may present a frost risk, especially for low-lying valley areas that may have better potential for temperatures in the lower 30s. Being late April, would suggest taking an abundance of caution and cover any susceptible crops and plants if in these low-lying areas in south-central Missouri.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Cooler than average temperatures expected through Saturday:

Broad zonal westerly flow will continue through Saturday with the upper-level jet core pretty much directly overhead. This will keep the surface cold front locked away well to our south along the Gulf. As such, temperatures will remain cooler than average with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The coolest day/night appears to be Friday and Friday night as a secondary cold front is progged to drop through the region. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 60s, though with cloud cover forecast to be overhead along with NBM 25th percentile temperatures in the upper 50s, would not be surprised to see areas read as high as the mid to upper 50s Friday.

Friday night will also be chilly with lows forecast to be in the middle 30s to lower 40s. The pattern looks to be the same story as tonight with a high pressure moving across the area, calming winds and clearing skies. Therefore, a somewhat more widespread frost risk is also possible Friday night into Saturday morning. The NBM gives a solid 20-40% chance of most areas seeing less than 36 F when waking up Saturday morning. Sensitive vegetation will need to be protected Friday night, especially if frost transpires tonight into Thursday morning.

15-20% chances for light stratiform rain Thursday and Friday:

Along with the secondary cold front passage, some light stratiform rain may occur Thursday and Friday. Global models depict this occuring ahead of a mid-level shortwave, however, this looks to be placed under the left entrance region of the 300 mb jet, which may inhibit widespread lift. Either way, any rain that develops should be light with only very small measurable amounts expected. The greatest public impact from this would be a dreary, cloudy, and cool day.

Pattern change initiates warm-up and rain chances next week:

Global ensembles kick the zonal flow and jet core out of our area starting Sunday. This will create a rising geopotential height trend. Therefore, temperatures will begin to warm up to near average in the 70s Sunday and into early next week. With northwest flow and a subtropical jet still over the Gulf, appreciable moisture will be locked away. That said, clusters depict the potential for a clipper system to drop through the flow, bringing some marginal Pacific moisture. Some members bring enough moisture to produce some weak instability along with this system. This will bring low 15-20% chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Along with marginal moisture, clusters still disagree on timing, amplitude, and location of the shortwave, leading to the low chances. With that said, if enough instability is able to develop, shear should be on the 30+ kt side, which could bring a marginal severe risk Sunday night and/or Monday. Trends will continue to be monitored.

The pattern really begins to change toward the end of the forecast period Tuesday as the subtropical jet pivots to a southwesterly orientation, opening up the Gulf and lifting more appreciable moisture into our area. There's still a good deal of uncertainty in ensembles, especially as at this time a closed low will be over the southwest CONUS area (which notoriously is hard to resolve in models), so we can't say much more other than shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and potentially onward (30-40% as of now). Machine Learning/AI and dynamic model ensembles do start hinting at severe probabilities with this pattern change as the simulated environment presents a 5-25% chance for to be conducive for severe weather. Details are far from known, though, so keep up with the forecasts for greater confidence and future updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

IFR ceilings are expected to continue at all three terminals with a stratus deck over the area. Periods between 00Z-04Z could lead to brief LIFR Cigs, primarily at KSGF and KBBG before conditions improve back to VFR at KJLN by 05Z-06Z and KSGF/KBBG between 09Z-12Z. Otherwise, expect northerly winds generally between 5-10kts.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.