textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon scattered showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday. Highest chances (30-60%) south of Interstate 44 Wednesday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall. - Warming trend for the end of the week through the weekend with heat indices in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a strong mid level high across the northern plains with shortwave energy across the Gulf Coast region. A dry mid level airmass was in place across the area which was evident on the 12z SGF sounding. Surface winds remained out of the northeast with dewpoints generally in the 60s. A few cumulus have developed given just enough moisture around 850mb. Temps have warmed into the 80s.

Afternoon Rain Chances Tuesday: Shortwave energy looks to slide west underneath the ridge towards eastern Arkansas during the day. This disturbance will have some deeper moisture with it with PW values climbing to 1.50in by the afternoon and evening across south central Missouri. For this reason, precip chances have been increased to the 20-30% range for the afternoon, evening and early overnight hours. This mainly looks to affect locations south of Interstate 44 with many locations remaining dry. High temps Tuesday will be very similar to today.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Rain Chances Wednesday and Thursday: Additional energy looks to slide through the area on Wednesday and Thursday. A very tropical like airmass will move in Wednesday from the southeast with mean PW values pushing 2 inches across the southeast half of the area by the afternoon. Instability looks to be generally less than 1500j/kg therefore we expect scattered showers and non severe storms during the afternoon and evening and precip chances are high southeast of I-44 (pushing 70% near West Plains). Given slow storm motions and high PWs, locally heavy rainfall should occur and the WPC does have the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This could result in localized flooding. Precip chances are currently less for Thursday however if the shortwave lingers a bit longer than forecast we could see increased chances. Clouds and precip should keep high temps in the 80s both days with a few locations west of Springfield pushing 90.

Higher temps Friday into the Weekend: Ensemble cluster analysis depicts an upper ridge attempting to re establish itself across the Rockies however there is still uncertainty on how quick it redevelops and its exact placement. There is some potential for the area to remain in a northwest flow pattern which would allow for precip chances. Currently, rain chances are less than 20 percent. Depending on the return to warmer 80mb temps, surface temps will begin to climb closer to 90 if not reach the lower 90s by Saturday. While heat indicies are currently forecast to only reach the upper 90s to around 100, the heat risk tool show potential for the area to reach the moderate to major category.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with passing afternoon cumulus around 3-4kft. Winds will remain light out of the east to northeast with speeds less than 10kts. There is a low chance for brief, MVFR vis at BBG tomorrow morning at sunrise.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.