textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A localized corridor of thunderstorms across far southern MO will support flash flooding through early this morning. A Flood Watch is in effect for this corridor from McDonald county to Ozark county.

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall that would support flash flooding.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) through late week, with an additional heavy rainfall and flooding potential. Cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This Morning: Radar captures the extent of lingering showers and thunderstorms across far southern MO this morning as a cold front slows sinks south. Recent mesoscale trends suggest the front is stalling into this area, and will support repeated rounds of thunderstorms through this morning. As a result, a targeted Flood Watch has been introduced for McDonald, Barry, Stone, Taney, and Ozark counties in MO. Ample moisture is in place, with PWATs around 1.9 to 2.1 inches. This will support efficient rainfall rates upwards of 1 to 3 inches per a hour. The experimental high- resolution Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) has latched onto this heavy rainfall trend over southern MO, suggesting rainfall amounts in this corridor of 2 of 4 inches, with localize rainfall amounts up to 6 inches. A potential max QPF scenario from WoFS even shows highly localized amounts in the 6 to 10 inch range. This is a the high-end, worst case scenario. One factor that remains unknown is how the MCS across OK impacts this flood setup, and if it pulls the associated west-east band of convection further south. This is not a scenario we wanted to wait to see play out or not, so the targeted watch has been put out. Considerable flash flooding may occur if higher end amounts pan out, especially given local terrain and basin characteristics in this area.

This Afternoon-Tonight: Drier and cooler weather overspread the area behind the frontal passage later today with highs in the middle to upper 70s/near80. This is anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid to late June. Light north-northeast winds with clouds gradually clearing this evening. Lows fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: As we progress into Tuesday, northwest flow takes shape over the region with a series of shortwaves progged to translate through the area this week. This pattern will be characterized by a stalled frontal boundary into northern AR. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return by Tuesday morning and afternoon, with more widespread chances (60-80%) into overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning with an overnight MCS diving southeast into the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Wednesday: By Wednesday morning, guidance depict the potential of an overnight MCS tracking southeast through the area. There remains some uncertainty on this MCS tracking through the area, though recent trends do capture at least portions of the area being clipped. This will be better resolved in subsequent forecast updates. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance depicts persistent shower and thunderstorms chances through the remainder of Wednesday with a stalled boundary just south of the area. Strong low level moisture advects north over this frontal boundary into Wednesday, as gleaned by PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 over southern MO. Given the increasing confidence in more widespread rainfall, potentially heavy at times, WPC has highlight portions of the area in Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Additional details will be captured over the next 24 to 48 hours, though the trend does suggest an increasing potential for flash flooding in the area. This is especially true given antecedent conditions, with elevated streamflows and saturated soils.

Thursday-Sunday: As we get into the later part of the week, an active pattern remains in place across. Ensemble guidance vary on timing and location of shortwaves, though the general consensus is for the region to see persistent rain chances (30-60%) through Friday. An associated heavy rainfall and flooding threat may accompany each round. This pattern will feature cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this week.

By next weekend, guidance hints at a potential pattern change with the jet stream becoming suppressed further north with a ridge building over the region. This would suggest a warm up in the forecast, with highs into the upper 80s near 90.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR ceilings are ongoing across southern Missouri and southeast Kansas at the start of the TAF period with broken to overcast stratus overhead. Ceilings will slowly lift throughout the afternoon, and any patchy drizzle will end.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.