textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-60% coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with localized heavy rainfall. - Warm and mostly dry this weekend with highs returning to the 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees. Hottest conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100, lows in the mid to upper 70s, and heat index values around 100-105.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fog is expected to develop into the early morning hours today, with potential for locally dense fog possible east of Highway 65.

The overall pattern for today will be similar to yesterday, but shower/storm activity will range from 30% coverage near Joplin to 60% near Rolla. This is due to the upper low having shifted west from yesterday, but being closer to the area. Similar to yesterday, REFS and HREF PMM values are very locally 2-3 inches, so some very localized, minor flooding may be possible mainly toward Central MO. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected.

Shortwave energy moves through on Friday, leading to 20-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Most areas should remain dry. Look for highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This weekend will seeing increasing temperatures and mostly dry conditions (PoPs < 20%). Look for highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to around 100.

Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest day as the warmest airmass advects over the area. Forecast high temps in the mid 90s to around 100 (hottest along/west of I-49) are plausible given HREF probabilities for 850mb temps > 24C around 50% over the west and sounding climatology showing several matches for >24C 850mb temps and surface highs of 100 or higher. Will advertise heat index values of 100-105 with HeatRisk in the major category both days. Also noteworthy that Monday night lows are only forecast to get into the mid to upper 70s.

The pattern for later in the week is less certain. The forecast features cooler temps with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s with minimal rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Confidence is high that scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this afternoon with the highest potential at SGF. There is a chance for a few showers tonight and again Friday however confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will primarily remain out of the west with speeds less than 10kts. There is also the potential for some patchy fog at BBG around 12z Friday that might reduce vis to MVFR and may need to add to future updates.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.