textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) today and Friday. There is a Slight risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall/localized flooding today through Friday morning across southeast KS into southeast MO.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) through Memorial Day weekend with a gradual warming trend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Today-Friday: Broad southwest flow persists across the central CONUS, with another shortwave progged to translate through the region. This will feature a system with associated shower and thunderstorm chances later today through tonight. As moisture return increases this morning, scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread southeast KS into southwest MO. This will occur in the vicinity of warm air advection and an upper- level jet steak. The environment looks to remain rather benign, with no severe weather expected given the lack of sufficient shear and instability. Forecast MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg nudges into southeast KS and southwest MO and will support non- severe thunderstorms through tonight. The area of precipitation will generally remain confined to areas west of Highway 65 through the afternoon. Highs reach into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon.

By this evening into tonight, CAMs show some discontinuity on extent of rain chances persisting behind midnight. There is a scenario where precipitation coverage becomes isolated in nature overnight tonight before additional shortwave energy arrives on Friday. This scenario seems to be what trends support, with additional shower and thunderstorms eventually overspreading the area on Friday. Areas of east of Highway 65 may not see much of any rain on Thursday.

WPC highlights portions of southeast KS into southwest MO in a Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook through tonight into early Friday morning. This is to capture the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding, in particular in areas that remain saturated from heavy rainfall earlier this week. It appears that this potential will be rather localized, with HREF PMM and LPMM highlighting a few corridors of 1 to 3 inches where training of thunderstorms may occur. Most locations remain around a 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rainfall through Friday. Expect rain chances to gradually dissipate into Friday evening/night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Saturday-Sunday: An active pattern persists into the weekend with mid-level heights increasing to support a gradual warming trend. Expect temperatures to return to normal for mid to late May, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the Memorial Day Weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain around 40-70% both Saturday and Sunday, though discrepancies exist on the timing and extent of coverage. Despite some lingering uncertainty, we are currently not expecting all day washouts either Saturday or Sunday.

Next Week: Unsettled weather featuring additional rain chances lingers into next week with a stationary boundary in the region. Ensemble guidance suggest the axis of heaviest rainfall potential aligns across the southern Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Continue to check back with the forecast for updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Ceilings are gradually improving from IFR/MVFR to VFR early this afternoon, with medium-high confidence that a period of VFR cigs will prevail this afternoon before returning tonight with a round of showers that moves in and develops from west to east. Confidence in exact timing of showers is low, but visibility and ceiling would be reduced to IFR with any precipitation.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.