textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably cool conditions take hold tonight and linger through the weekend.

- Low (10-20%) precipitation chances move into extreme southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Sunday. Considerable uncertainty on the track of this system limits overall confidence in seeing precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 226 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

The synoptic pattern is characterized by a deep low and troughing along the east coast and Great Lakes region, which has brought unsettled weather to those areas the last couple of days, and ridging over the entire Rocky Mountain range in the west with another dynamic low pressure system pushing its way onshore over the west coast. The Ozarks are sitting on the southwest periphery of shortwave energy deepening into the trough, placing us in chilly northwest flow with a decent pressure gradient as a secondary cold front makes its way through Missouri from north to south.

As the front clears the area this afternoon, winds will slowly begin to die down for the evening and take on a more northerly component. More efficient CAA, lowering heights, and clear skies tonight will allow low temperatures to tank. Widespread lows below freezing are expected, with readings in the mid-20s in valleys and sheltered areas. Since the growing season has ended, no freeze products will be issued, but a hard freeze will be possible with these lows.

As evidenced by our 0.51 PWAT on the 12Z sounding this morning, it is quite dry, and even drier air will be filtering in behind the front. With the cooler temperatures, though, minimum RH values remain largely above 35% for Friday afternoon. Winds will exhibit a slight diurnal increase, but remain below 15 mph. Highs will be up to 10 degrees cooler than today, even with mostly sunny skies, due to continued CAA overnight and 850mb temperatures in the lowest quartile of climatology.

Friday night will be the absolute coldest of the forecast period. Lows from the low to mid 20s are expected. This would be 10-15 degrees below our normal lows in the upper 30s for mid-November. Though surface winds will be light, skies will be clear, and heights will still be in the lowest 25% of the climatological distribution.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 226 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Saturday, the high pressure that has been hanging on for dear life as it is pinched between the two troughs will begin to influence the Ozarks. Highs warm a few degrees into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds become light and turn west/southwesterly as the high pressure center passes by to the north across central Missouri. High cloud cover begins to intrude from the southwest ahead of the troughing that starts pushing into Texas.

By Sunday, ensembles seem to agree that the incoming shortwave undercuts the ridge as it moves across the southern Plains Sunday and Monday. However, there is disagreement regarding magnitude and track. The NBM continues to trend down on PoPs for our area, and currently limits them to 15-20% for our extreme southwestern-most counties. It also clears them out before temperatures could drop low enough to result in any snow flurries. The Canadian ensemble is most generous in giving areas southwest of Springfield up to two tenths of an inch of rain while the European ensemble brings only two hundredths. The official deterministic forecast (in this case, the NBM) currently depicts zero QPF.

Regardless of the precipitation outcome of the cutoff low, ridging looks to take hold once more to begin the work week. Temperatures steadily trend up to near 60 again by midweek, several degrees above our normals in the mid-50s. There is surprisingly good agreement on a frontal passage midweek that *could* result in precipitation, but probabilities are low for now and it would be irresponsible to assert anything for sure at this lead time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions expected this period. Slightly gusty northwest winds this morning up to 20 kts ahead of a cold front that will pass through the area this afternoon. Winds will then diminish behind the front and become more northerly beginning around 00Z. Few to scattered Cu around 2-4 kft. MVFR ceilings unlikely (<20%) but possible.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.