textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record temperatures today with afternoon highs in the low 90s.

- Showers and thunderstorms move through the area tonight through Thursday night. A risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system.

- Pattern change incoming with high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Water vapor imagery nicely shows an upper-level ridge axis shifting over the Mississippi Valley region early this morning. To the west, upper-air analysis depicts a closed low pressure center within a digging trough over the western CONUS, while a less prominent shortwave was lifting through the northern Plains and into the Midwest. Observations as of midnight show dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, but that will be quick to change as southwest winds advect moisture into the region with upstream dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

Record Heat this Afternoon:

Rising heights, warm air advection, and 850 mb temperatures in the 19 to 21 deg C range will support afternoon max temperatures in the low to even mid 90s F areawide. This alone will be enough to break several daily records. For reference, the climatological average high for Springfield today is 72 degrees. As mentioned, however, more humid air will also be moving into the area today; resultant afternoon heat index values will be upper 90s to even the low 100s. Consideration was given to the issuance of a short Heat Advisory given the climatological anomalousness of this mid-October heat, but confidence is high that most if not all locations will come up a few degrees short of the 105 degree criteria. Regardless, it will be unusually hot today.

Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight through Thursday:

As the aforementioned trough across the western CONUS shifts east today, rich tropical moisture will be drawn ahead of it. Meanwhile, a slow-moving cold front will sag south through northern Missouri and Kansas. Once the moisture advection and diurnal heating erode the cap during the afternoon, convective initiation along this boundary is likely. Enhanced mid-level flow and an increasing low-level jet may provide sufficient shear for organized convection capable of producing hail and severe wind gusts. While the better parameter space will lie north and west of the forecast area, a few of these storms could persist long enough to move into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight. A glance at REFS and HREF 40 dBZ paintballs suggests that if this stronger activity does indeed survive into our area, it would most likely be after 10 PM. The primary hazard would be a risk of wind gusts up to 60 mph within any established cold pools or outflow boundary, with a secondary risk of small hail. The SPC has a Marginal Risk roughly along and northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Rolla, MO line for tonight.

This activity will continue as the front gradually pushes south on Wednesday before stalling out and eventually lifting back to the north on Thursday. Periods of weakening and re- strengthening are likely as instability wanes and grows. While cloud cover will limit thermodynamic recovery for many areas, locations that see peaks of sunshine--perhaps along the southern fringe of the convection's leading edge--may experience enough destabilization for the development of isolated storms capable of producing severe wind gusts. Most activity will remain sub- severe, however, if earlier convection keeps the environment worked over.

Rainfall Amounts: Rain chances begin across the northwestern portions of the forecast area after 10 PM tonight, expand southeast Wednesday morning, and then wind down Thursday night. The highest forecast rainfall totals are north of the I-44 corridor, driven primarily by the Tuesday night into Wednesday morning round, and then another round Wednesday night. For these locations, widespread 72-hr rainfall totals between 1.50 to 3.00 inches are forecast. To the south of the interstate, forecast rainfall totals fall between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. With forecast PWATs exceeding the 99th percentile of climatology and near daily records, moisture will not be lacking. Any stronger storms will be good rainmakers, so locally higher amounts are likely. A Flood Watch has been issued for the northwest-most tier of counties in the forecast area until 10 AM Wednesday. With the dry antecedent conditions and many rivers in or near low flow, it will take quite a bit of rainfall to result in widespread flooding, but given the potential for rain rates exceeding 2 in/hr, there is at least some risk for true flash flooding. Furthermore, both HREF and REFS LPMM depict localized amounts of 4 inches in the Flood Watch area through this period. It should be noted that this watch currently does NOT go through the entirety of rainfall event, ending Wednesday morning as is. The need for a potential extension or expansion will be re- evaluated with this afternoon's forecast package.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Much Cooler End of Week:

A much, much cooler airmass will move in behind the rain on Friday. The NBM has clearly trended toward the cold end of its previously-large interquartile range over the past 24 hours, now showing its mean high temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Friday and Saturday. Should this verify, those high temperatures would be colder than most locations' minimum temperatures tonight. Furthermore, overnight low temperatures in the 30s will open the door to a frost risk across portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks Friday night and Saturday night.

Looking ahead at ensembles for next week, however, shows that these cooler temperatures may be short-lived as a building ridge brings warmer air right back into the area on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with increasing high/mid level clouds during the day Tuesday. Southerly winds will increase in speed and gusts Tuesday morning and afternoon with gusts around 20kts likely. Low level wind shear is likely at SGF and JLN overnight into Tuesday morning. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area at the end of the TAF period and beyond into Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A prolonged period with substantial rainfall deficits from late Summer and into the Fall has contributed to worsening drought conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The latest Drought Monitor valid Oct 6 showed a continued expansion of the D3 (Extreme Drought) and an overall categorical degradation across the fire weather forecast area. Resultant fuel moisture indices show similar trends. Woody FM readings between 60-70 and Herb FM values of 30-60 suggest these fuels are cured or very dry. Combined, these produce a Growing Season Index (GSI) of 0.1 to 0.3, indicating fuel dormancy. Furthermore, KBDI values greater than 600 (and in some cases greater than 700) also suggest fuels are near or completely cured.

While Red Flag Warning (RFW) conditions are not forecast to be met in the next seven days, we will officially begin our fire weather season messaging, and headlines will be issued should RFW criteria be forecast from this point onward.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

October 12: KSGF: 91/2024 KJLN: 93/2024 KVIH: 90/2024 KUNO: 87/1975

October 13: KSGF: 88/2017 KJLN: 88/1952 KVIH: 88/1899 KUNO: 93/1989

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.