textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler but still above-average temperatures (highs in the mid 50s) likely through the weekend.

- Rain chances return late this week starting Friday afternoon and continuing through Sunday morning. Higher rainfall amounts expected south of I-44.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures into mid to late-February with next Monday near 70 degrees in some places.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A cold front is pushing into south-central and southeast Missouri this afternoon. Locations across southern Missouri have had time to warm up considerably again today, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s; meanwhile, locations across central Missouri have remained in the 50s. Aloft, quasi-zonal/broad ridging is promoting dry weather across the region.

Mostly Dry through Wednesday:

As the aforementioned cold front pushes into southern Missouri, it will encounter some better moisture. As it does so, scattered showers look to develop along the boundary after 6 PM. Spatially, these precipitation chances are limited to our extreme southeastern CWA; namely locations southeast of an Eminence to Gainesville line. Precipitation amounts will be light if showers do form, generally remaining less than a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Otherwise, the Missouri Ozarks look to remain under the ridge through tomorrow, which will keep conditions dry. While mixing will only be modest, a dry airmass will push minimum afternoon relative humidity values into the 25 to 25% range areawide. Winds will remain fairly light, however, which will limit fire spread potential should one start.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Surface high pressure will be in place over the area for Wednesday into Thursday. Though, it starts to breakdown throughout the day on Thursday and clouds begin to move in. Winds will be out of the southeast with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A large 500mb trough will move through the southern portion of the CONUS later this week and bring our next chance for rain. Rain chances start to increase Friday afternoon and stay elevated (50-80%) through Sunday morning. There will be several rounds of rain with breaks in between. There could also be a few rumbles of thunder, but no widespread thunderstorms are forecast at this time. Latest guidance has been trending further and further south and the bulk of the rain is forecast to fall along and south of I-44 with lesser amounts falling towards central MO. This trough could continue to push further south, so keep that in mind as we get closer to the weekend. Deterministic rainfall totals may change and rainfall amounts may decrease over the next couple of days. Though, will add in probabilistic rainfall totals at this time. Probabilistic rainfall amounts are as follows:

Joplin: >0.5": 70% >1": 60% >2": 35%

Springfield: >0.5": 70% >1": 60% >2": 35%

Branson: >0.5": 80% >1": 60% >2": 35%

Rolla:

>0.5": 60% >1": 50% >2": 25%

Highs will be in the 50s each day from Thursday to Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Clouds will start to clear out by the afternoon on Sunday. Early next week upper level troughing will setup over the west coast with long wave upper level ridging over the central U.S. This will setup the potential for well above normal temperatures returning early next week. Some areas on Monday could see highs nearing 70 degrees!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight through the day on Wednesday as an area of surface pressure moves across the region. Winds will generally remain below 10kt through the TAF period. Northerly winds will occur tonight with northwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon then easterly winds Wednesday evening.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.