textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered shower and storm chances (20-50%) continue through this morning into this afternoon, especially east of Highway 65. Severe weather is not expected, though slow-moving storms could bring rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour, causing localized flooding concerns.

- Cooler today, with highs dropping in the mid-80s. Widespread heat indices below 100 degrees for the first time in 7 days.

- Additional isolated shower and storm chances (15-30%) will be possible each afternoon until Thursday, when more widespread rain chances (40-60%) return.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: A 250/300mb trough is slowly digging across the Midwest, with an attendant cold/quasi-stationary surface front located across Iowa and central Illinois advancing southward. A mesolow is located over southwest Missouri with a surface trough extending behind it, with an ongoing MCV apparent on early morning radar imagery.

Today: The cold front will continue marching south today, marked more by wind shift than any substantial change in the air mass. However, very light cold advection under northeasterly low-level winds as well as dramatic cooling in the wake of the evening convection will act to drop high temperatures 5-10 degrees this afternoon compared to yesterday, with expected highs in the mid-80s. It will remain humid, with another day of dew points in the low 70s, but heat indices will largely stay in the upper 80s to mid-90s today, remaining below 100 degrees for the first time in 7 days.

The scattered, broken remnants of the overnight MCV will continue to push east through the early morning hours with additional scattered development where localized low-level theta-e advection initiates new storms ahead of/along an enhanced nocturnal LLJ streak. There will still be a risk of a strong wind gust to 55 mph with any strong storms that can pulse up, as well as heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding concerns with renewed convection, but the widespread severe/flooding risk for the remainder of the overnight period has ended.

Additional and lingering scattered convection can be expected through the morning in the eastern Ozarks along various outflow boundaries that remain from previous convection, with renewed redevelopment this afternoon as the front arrives. Areas to the east of Highway 65 will have the highest rainfall chances this afternoon as the cold front pushes south and provides a more widespread source of lift for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage remains in question, with the potential instability somewhat limited from morning cloud cover and convection. Shear is unimpressive, so storms should remain sub- severe. Weak steering flow of 5-15kts will mean that flooding could be a threat anywhere that sees more than an hour or two of rain, with rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour in any deep convection likely to remain nearly stationary for the lifespan of any thunderstorms without any steering flow to keep storms moving.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

An upper-level ridge begins to build back into the central Plains on Monday, but the 250mb trough is slow to move out, with a closed low developing directly overhead on Monday and lingering through at least Wednesday, per most medium and long- range models. This closed low's influence keeps us on the edge of the synoptic wave, which will allow for continued precipitation chances from pop-up thunderstorms each afternoon (especially in the eastern Ozarks) through Wednesday.

As we approach midweek, the closed low finally gets absorbed and pushes east and away from the area. The return to zonal flow aloft allows a building low-level ridge over the southeast to expand north into our area. This will return us to southwesterly flow, and advect warmer temperatures back into the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures climb back into the 90s, with heat indices returning to near 100-105 degrees. Ensembles are generally in agreement that widespread rain chances 40-60% return on Thursday with the next shortwave trough ejection into the southern Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the entirety of the TAF period. Some isolated showers will be possible (20-40%) at KSGF and KBBG (with the higher probabilities at KBBG) between 16Z-23Z, however coverage is expected to remain limited. Otherwise, expect light northerly winds by late morning before becoming light and variable overnight.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.