textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and well above normal temperatures into early next week. Highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Dry agricultural conditions paired with daily humidity values dropping into the 20-35% range may increase the chance for fire starts. Higher gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible early to middle of next week.

- More widespread rain chances return mid-week next week; however uncertainty still exists regarding timing and system evolution.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias currently resides over AL, with synoptic analysis showing weak mid-level ridging over the Great Lakes region and southwesterly flow aloft over our region. This pattern is largely aiding in keeping Isaias remnants out of our area, with high confidence in dry weather continuing through the short term. Temperatures as of 1230PM range in the mid to upper 70s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. As the afternoon progresses, temps are expected to continue climbing into the upper 80s for the majority of the CWA. The exception will be over portions of the eastern Ozarks/south- central MO where mid- to high- level clouds associated with Isaias continue to filter in as shown on satellite imagery. This should keep temperatures a few degrees "cooler", with highs remaining in the low 80s.

As Isaias continue to pivot northeast towards the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Sunday, a mid-level ridge will begin to build over the region, raising mid-level heights and 850mb temperatures into the 18- 20C range. This will allow afternoon highs to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the entire forecast area.

A weak mid level shortwave trough will push through the High Plains on Sunday, with an associated surface low developing east of the Rockies. As a result, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten, leading to increased southwesterly winds gusting up to 25mph generally west of the Highway 65 corridor. Some occasional gusts up to 30mph will be possible (65-85% probability according to the HREF). With the dry airmass remaining in place, minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 30-40% range west of Highway 65, and into the 25-35% range east of the highway. Despite the strongest winds not aligning with the driest areas, elevated fire danger is expected generally along/west of Highway 65. See the Fire Weather section below for more detailed fuel information.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The above-normal temperatures and dry airmass will continue into the beginning portion of the week, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s through Tuesday. Did end up lowering highs from the NBM deterministic by a couple degrees on Tuesday to account for some frontal boundary positioning uncertainty. Regardless, we'll be challenging record high temperatures through Tuesday (see Climate section below).

The increased winds will continue on Monday, with southwesterly gusts up to 35mph west of Highway 65 and up to 20-30mph east of the highway. This will once again contribute to elevated fire weather concerns, with the greatest threat east of Highway 65 where minimum RHs drop into the 25-35% range.

Synoptically, an upper level closed low and associated trough will continue dropping into the Pacific Northwest region today before pushing southeast towards the Rockies. It's currently progged to ingest Tropical Storm Rachel once she makes landfall off the coast of CA/northern Baja Peninsula and pushes over the desert southwest late Tuesday. Latest guidance seems to have slowed this system down a bit, with large spreads between the models regarding the systems evolution/timing leading to continued uncertainty. Current thinking has a cold front dropping south into the area late Tuesday before stalling out and lifting in the form of a warm front Wednesday night, with a secondary cold front sweeping through Friday morning, ending the precipitation chances. Of course, there are still timing uncertainties. Regardless, this will bring our next chance of showers and storms as early as Tuesday evening/night (30-60%), with the highest chances (65-85%) on Wednesday before the front lifts northeast Thursday (30-60% pops) and precipitation ends on Friday with the secondary front. As the previous discussion mentioned, this is a fairly complex forecast with many discrepancies. Therefore, it's still too early to get into the weeds of specific rainfall amounts, with details continuing to get ironed out in future updates.

Behind the cold frontal passage, cooler temperatures will move in by next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entirety of the forecast period. Surface winds out of the southwest will generally remain between 5-10kts before increasing towards the end of the period and beyond, gusting up to 20kts primarily at KSGF and KJLN

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A prolonged period with substantial rainfall deficits from late Summer and into the Fall has contributed to worsening drought conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The latest Drought Monitor valid Oct 6 showed a continued expansion of the D3 (Extreme Drought) and an overall categorical degradation across the fire weather forecast area. Resultant fuel moisture indices show similar trends. Woody FM readings between 60-70 and Herb FM values of 30-60 suggest these fuels are cured or very dry. Combined, these produce a Growing Season Index (GSI) of 0.1 to 0.3, indicating fuel dormancy. Furthermore, KBDI values greater than 600 (and in some cases greater than 700) also suggest fuels are near or completely cured.

While Red Flag Warning (RFW) conditions are not forecast to be met in the next seven days, we will officially begin our fire weather season messaging, and headlines will be issued should RFW criteria be forecast from this point onward.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

October 11: KSGF: 91/1963 KJLN: 91/2020 KVIH: 92/1963 KUNO: 93/1963

October 12: KSGF: 91/2024 KJLN: 93/2024 KVIH: 90/2024 KUNO: 87/1975

October 13: KSGF: 88/2017 KJLN: 88/1952 KVIH: 88/1899 KUNO: 93/1989

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.