textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures increase by a few degrees each day today through Monday, with highs in the upper 90s by Sunday.

- Multiple days of high temperatures between 90-100 F and heat index values of 95-110 F are expected Sunday-Thursday, with Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk expected across the area.

- Once the heat starts, it is not forecast to end anytime soon. The CPC forecasting a 70-80% chance of above average temperatures to continue at least through September 4-10.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current surface observations show calm winds across the Ozarks with no frontal boundaries nearby, and a broad surface high pressure system centered in Iowa. As a result, temperatures tonight are on track to cool into the lower 60s. While the region is still underneath broad northwesterly flow aloft, RAP analysis maps show that the ridge axis over the western CONUS has begun shifting eastward over the last 24 hours.

Warming trend and dry weather through the weekend:

As the ridge axis continues to shift eastward into our area, heights will rise and temperatures will gradually warm each day beneath mostly sunny skies. Highs today are forecast to be somewhat near normal in the middle 80s to middle 90s, warming to the upper 80s to upper 90s on Saturday as a warm front associated with the traversing ridge pushes east through the area. Each day, the warmest values will be west of Highway 65, closer to the greatest heights aloft.

Low temperatures will also gradually warm from the 60s tonight, into the 60s and lower 70s Saturday night, with the west-to-east gradient as the high temperature pattern.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Climatologically abnormal heat returns into early next week:

The forecast for next week continues to be on track for heat to return to the area, and potentially for an extended amount of time. The Extreme Forecast Index trends have continued to go up over the past few runs (now at 0.9-0.99) as NBM temperature spreads continue to tighten around the upper-end of the spectrum. This signifies an anomalous event, but not quite record-challenging as of yet. Highs are currently forecast to range from 93 to right around 100 F with records at our climate sites generally being just above 100 F. Moisture will not be overly high either, which will keep Heat Index values generally between 95-105, though some areas toward the SW corner of MO and SE corner of KS may see some Heat Index values exceeding 105 F (15-20% chance from the latest LREF ensemble).

Regardless, the abnormal heat for this time period (early September) is expected to persist over multiple days, which will introduce a Heat Risk for those vulnerable to heat and/or without proper cooling methods. NWS HeatRisk brings in Major to Extreme values to our area Tuesday through Thursday. Heat- related precautions will need to be taken as we enter this timeframe. It seems there's a moderately-high chance (50-80%) that at least a Heat Advisory will be needed once 4 days of 100+ Heat Index values are achieved.

With ridging and high pressure in place, rain chances are forecast to be minimal into early next week. That said, global models do output a few splotches of QPF in our area some of the days this period. Therefore, a few instances of pop-up showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out some days despite low (<15%) chances.

Potential for some elevated fire weather this weekend:

When southerly flow returns behind the surface warm front Saturday, moisture is forecast to lag a bit behind. Additionally, the winds are expected to be a bit breezy, especially on Sunday west of Highway 65, where sustained speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 15-25 mph are possible. Pair this with the hot temperatures in the 90s to near 100 F, and you have a recipe for hot, dry, and breezy conditions. The Hot, Dry, and Windy Index (HDWI) is picking up on this, with near certainty in above 90th percentile conditions for this time of year, and around a 50% chance of exceeding the 95th percentile. Therefore, some elevated fire weather concerns may become present west of Highway 65, especially Sunday, where/when the hottest, driest, and breeziest conditions are currently forecast. This is especially true as this are is currently in a Moderate to Severe (D1 to D2 out of 4) Drought.

Heat forecast to continue through at least September 4-10:

The CPC's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook continues to hold us in a 70-80% chance for above normal temperatures during the September 4-10 period as ridging/high pressure continues to persist across our area. NBM temperature spreads leading up to this period continue to remain elevated in the upper 90s, with even some tails of the spreads depicting highs between 100-105 around September 4-6. This would become record-challenging if realized. Therefore, be prepared for another persistent heat wave as we go through the first days of September and Meteorological Fall.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions expected for the entire TAF period at all sites. 3-8 kt easterly winds below only a few passing high clouds and elevated fair weather cumulus clouds are forecast for the period. These winds start to shift to southeasterly by the end of the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

August 30: KSGF: 101/2000 KJLN: 103/2000

August 31: KJLN: 105/2000 KVIH: 100/2000

September 1: KVIH: 99/1953

September 2: KSGF: 101/2000 KVIH: 99/1899

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 30: KSGF: 73/2013 KJLN: 76/1945 KVIH: 75/1951

August 31: KSGF: 76/2011 KJLN: 80/2011 KVIH: 75/1980

September 1: KSGF: 77/1922 KJLN: 80/2011 KUNO: 74/1989 KVIH: 76/2011

September 2: KSGF: 76/1922 KJLN: 77/1961 KUNO: 73/1980 KVIH: 75/1898

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.