textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwesterly winds again this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph again this afternoon.

- Unseasonably cool conditions take hold tonight and linger through the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return to southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas on Sunday. Considerable uncertainty on the track of this system limits overall confidence.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1255 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

00Z upper air analysis indicates the continued presence of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwaves are embedded within the parent trough, with the first being tied to a sfc low progressing across the Ohio River Valley while another rides south along the periphery of the ridge into Iowa early this morning.

Mostly Dry and Breezy Again Today:

This second approaching shortwave is bringing another cold front towards the area with frontal passage , but the dry air mass sampled on our 00Z sounding will more than likely prevent any sprinkles from reaching the ground, keeping this frontal passage dry as well. Very sporadic patchy ground fog could be possible in cool low-lying areas and river valleys again this morning, but generally the drier dew points will prevent saturation from occurring quickly enough for fog to develop in most areas this morning. The surface pressure gradient will relax some today compared to yesterday, with gusts up to a slightly lower 25 mph this afternoon. REFS percentile spread data suggests a few gusts up to 30 mph may be possible this afternoon, but confidence is highest in gusts 20-25 mph areawide. Some mid-level clouds are expected to develop this afternoon into this evening, but mostly sunny conditions will prevail. Highs warm into the upper 50s to near 60 in western and southern portions of the area, only reaching low to mid-50s towards central Missouri.

Cool Down Tonight:

With the reinforcing secondary cold front bringing another burst of arctic air and CAA into the area, temperatures really drop tonight. REFS mean 850mb temps begin dropping below 0C this afternoon, and areawide 850mb temps drop to -2 to -8C overnight and into Friday morning, which is not just anomalously cool but below the 10th percentile for 850mb temps this time of year. The Eastern Ozarks, which will experience the strongest cold air advection, actually drops to below the 5th percentile of the low-level temperature climatology. This will bring subfreezing temperatures back tonight, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. The air mass behind the secondary frontal passage will not only be cold, but also dry-- dew points will continue to drop all day, with much of the area seeing Td fall below 30F by this evening. Frost/Freeze headlines have been suspended with the end of the growing season being declared, but any plants that may still be outdoors will be quite vulnerable.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Cool and Dry Continues Friday:

Temperatures and dew points continue falling on Friday. Local climatology indicates that the median high at Vichy-Rolla with an 850mb temperature of -7C and clear/partly cloudy skies is 41 degrees, and 34 degrees under mostly cloudy/overcast skies. Skies are currently expected to be mostly cloudy towards central Missouri, so it may be quite the brisk day for portions of our area on Friday. Cloud cover will decrease with southern and western extent, allowing for warmer temperatures. As cloud cover extent becomes further refined on Friday, temperatures will as well. Cloudier portions of central Missouri are likely to only reach low 40s, while areas with more sunshine will reach upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Dew points in the low 20s will make it feel quite dry, with afternoon RHs as low as 30%-35%.

Synoptic Evolution:

The ridging aloft shifts over the central US on Saturday, with troughing over the West squeezing the ridge between it and the trough over the East Coast. A southern stream shortwave pushes into Southern California on Friday and into the southern Plains by Sunday, quickly becoming cut off Sunday into Monday as it loses upper jet support. Ensembles start to diverge on the evolution of the synoptic pattern around this time as numerous shortwaves across the country become less clearly resolved, but trends over the last 24 hours have seen PoPs come in lower and slower for Sunday and Monday. The Euro is currently favoring a solution where the low becomes closed earlier and further west, bringing less energy into the area overall and keeping PoPs confined to areas further west and south. After the wave is absorbed, all ensembles point to a broadening of the ridging in place over most of the CONUS.

Temperatures Saturday and Beyond:

The height rises associated with the ridging over the central CONUS will allow temperatures to gradually rise on Saturday onward. Some uncertainty in Sunday's temperatures does result from questions about precipitation and cloud cover associated with the disturbance to our south, but a general warming trend emerges by next week. Weekend temperatures in the low 50s rise into the low 60s by Thursday, becoming more seasonable for mid- November.

Precip Chances Sunday/Monday:

As the disturbance pushes south of us on Sunday and Monday, PoPs begin to increase to 15-25% in our far southwest counties during the day on Sunday, which as high as the NBM brings them for this system. The LREF is more generous, keeping the NBM's prior 10-45% chances across the western half of our area. Overall QPF amounts are currently 0 for most of the area, peaking around 0.06" in McDonald County with measurable precip not even extending as far east as Springfield or as far north as Nevada. So, even if it does precipitate, it won't be very much, if at all. Most of the area will likely stay dry Sunday into Monday, especially areas east of Highway 65 and north of Highway 60.

As far as precip type goes............ this will depend heavily on timing and duration of any rainfall. With highs on Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s, precipitation will begin as rain, there's no question about that, especially since the highest PoPs are during the afternoon hours. Global ensembles, including the most conservative Euro ensemble, do keep low PoPs lingering through Sunday night. If rain continues into Sunday night as temperatures begin to drop, it becomes more likely that the 10% PoPs would turn from rain PoPs to flurry PoPs. But the other factor to consider is that GFS model soundings currently show 10,000 feet of dry air in the lowest level that precipitation of any type will have to overcome before it ever reaches the ground. Many variables to monitor in the coming days, but regardless of if these areas receive <0.1" of rain or a few flakes that melt as soon as they hit the ground, no impacts are expected from either outcome.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts increase to around 15 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts with a frontal passage turning winds more northerly after 19Z. Scattered fair weather cu with bases 3-4kft are expected to develop this afternoon, and though a ceiling is unlikely to result from these clouds (15-30% chance MVFR cigs) there is a low chance it may occur.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.