textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures late week into the weekend with highs in mid to upper 80s approaching records.

- Intermittent chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend. Most locations will experience more dry time than not.

- Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms across central Missouri Thursday evening.

- More widespread rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a large amplitude ridge axis starting to shift east as an upper wave shifts into WA/OR. The ridge axis extended from TX into the high plains and Saskatchewan. Another shortwave was tracking into the lower Great Lakes and OH valley, leaving our forecast area in broad northwest flow ahead of the ridge axis and behind the shortwave to the east. This has brought a surface cold front through the area along with a drier air mass. Dew points were in the 30s and 40s with temperatures in the 70s bringing RH values into the 20s and 30s. Polar orbiting satellites PW layer products show the drier air pushing the more moist air south of the CWA very well with visible imagery showing a clear sky throughout the area.

Tonight: High pressure will drift overhead tonight with a clear sky and light and variable wind. Temperatures should drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for lows.

Thursday: Upper ridge axis will slide east into the area. The surface ridge will shift eastward and some low level warm advection will set up with a narrow ribbon of moisture over eastern OK/KS Thursday morning. May see some convection develop to our west where the better low level southerly winds will be, but pops look pretty minimal in our CWA, generally less than 20% for anything that may drift in here from the west. Highs on Thursday should reach the mid 70s to low 80s. Most locations will remain dry.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A surface front will lift north of the area with a low level jet feeding Gulf moisture northward through the area on Thursday night. Shortwave energy will move in from the west and may generate some widely scattered convection in our area with the better concentration of convection north of us closer to the fronal boundary. Similar setup through the weekend with the front north of the area along with better precipitation chances. There will be quite a bit of instability, but also a cap in place over the area. With 850 temperatures Friday through the weekend in the 17-20 deg C range still looking at temperatures in the mid to upper 80s which will come close to some records (see climate section for those records/years).

As the main upper wave begins to shift eastward it is expected to mainly affect the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley region Monday into with the best upper level jet energy. A frontal boundary will push into our area late Monday into Tuesday bringing more widespread storm chances to our forecast area along with the potential of severe storms and heavy rain.

Outside of the 7 day forecast period, another upper wave will shift through the area towards midweek continuing the thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

For the 18z TAFS, dry air has moved into the area behind a frontal boundary with high pressure at the surface. A clear sky and north to northeast winds are expected during the remainder of the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 20 kts at times. A light and variable wind is expected tonight and will shift around to the southeast by Thursday morning as the high slides to the east. There is a potential for some showers/thunderstorms developing west of the area late tonight and possibly moving into the western CWA on Thursday morning, however with chances generally less than 20%, will not introduce into any of the TAFS at this time. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 87/1957 KJLN: 89/1911 KUNO: 87/1957

May 16: KJLN: 89/2001

May 17: KSGF: 88/2001 KJLN: 89/2001 KVIH: 92/1996 KUNO: 89/1980

May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001

Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 15: KSGF: 67/1941 KJLN: 72/1941 KUNO: 55/1998 KVIH: 65/2023

May 16: KSGF: 69/2015 KJLN: 73/1974 KUNO: 67/2015 KVIH: 70/1899

May 17: KSGF: 69/1974 KJLN: 75/1974 KUNO: 68/2017 KVIH: 68/2017

May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996

May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.