textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory for portions of the area late tonight into Saturday morning. Upper 20s/Low 30s east of Springfield with middle/upper 30s from Springfield and points west. Cloud cover could keep these temps slightly warmer.

- Low confidence in patchy fog potential overnight across southwest Missouri. Visibilities less than one mile are possible in localized areas.

- Cooler temperatures continue this weekend, with additional areas of frost and freeze on Sunday morning.

- Warming trend returns early next week, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precip chances remain less than 10 percent through the next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the area in a northwest flow pattern as a trough moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Regional soundings continue to show low level moisture trapped underneath an inversion with significant dry air above the inversion. Morning drizzle has since ended given the lack of lift however low clouds remain. It was a classic cold season Ozark Plateau stratus deck with the upslope factor (north winds) causing thicker clouds along the spine of the plateau with some breaks on either side. The clearing line was well up in northeast Missouri. Clouds and north winds have kept temps rather chilly in the upper 40s to around 50. Also of note are dewpoints which are generally in the low 40s locally with middle 30s across northern Missouri.

Clouds, Frost and Fog: A rather complicated and somewhat uncertain forecast is shaping up for tonight. The main contributer to the uncertainty is the cloud cover. Latest satellite trends and high res ensembles suggest that the clouds will be slower to clear out, especially along the plateau. There will also be some thin high clouds moving in from the west. Therefore the location of any clearing will be key to the temperature forecast/frost/fog potential.

Latest REFS guidance strongly suggests that clouds will linger west of Highway 63 for most of the night, however some breaks are evident. While REFS guidance doesn't strongly favor it, other short range guidance depicts a scenario where breaks in the clouds occur across southwest Missouri overnight with areas of fog then developing. Given the high RH and light winds, this is certainly plausible however will be highly dependent on enough clearing. This currently does not look like a stratus builddown event. The guidance that does favor fog seems to favor areas from Springfield and points southwest and will need to monitor this potential this evening.

Given the cloud cover lingering longer across most of the area, this causes a wrinkle in low temps tonight. Most guidance has trended a few degrees warmer with overnight lows, with the exception of areas east of Highway 63 where clouds should be less. Current dews in the 40s also support warmer overnight lows, unless the drier air up north can make it in by morning. Overall, highest chances for temps below freezing area east of Springfield in the current Freeze Warning area. The more uncertain areas are in the Frost Advisory where temps may stay in the middle/upper 30s with frost remaining patchy at best. If clouds were to clear quicker than current trends would indicate, then temps would be a little cooler. Regardless, those with sensitive plants/vegetation will need to take appropriate precautions and no changes will be made to the Frost/Freeze products.

Clouds look to linger on Saturday and have knocked high temps down a few degrees with most places struggling to reach the lower/middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Surface high pressure does look to slide over the area and REFS guidance depicts a higher probability for less clouds, patchy fog northwest of Springfield and overall higher frost/freeze potential with lows in the 30s (20s east of Springfield). If we do not have a sufficiently cold night tonight then additional frost/freeze headlines would be needed for Saturday night given a more likely colder night. After a cold start Sunday morning, clear skies on Sunday should allow for temps to warmer closer to average in the 60s.

Warmer and Dry Next Week: Ensemble Cluster Analysis continues to suggest a west/northwest flow pattern across our area for early and mid week with disturbances remaining either north or south of the area. Precip chances remain less than 10 percent this week. NBM interquartile spreads are generally less than 5 degrees which suggest high confidence of above average highs with temps approaching 70 Monday through Wednesday. Uncertainty in the pattern does appear Thursday and Friday as energy slides down from the north into the area and may bring another shot of cooler air.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 506 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A stratus deck has been more persistent than previous forecasts suggested, and while a few breaks may be observed, climatology suggests it will likely stick around through the overnight hours, bringing widespread MVFR to near-IFR ceilings to the terminals. If extended periods of breaks in the clouds do occur, then fog will become a greater concern, particularly as we approach 12Z.

Winds remain light and variable through the forecast period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>096-101>105. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ055>058-069>071-081>083-092-097-098-106.