textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return this week. Rain chances remain less than 10 percent. - The CPC gives a 60-70% chance for above normal temperatures to persist through the end of October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis highlights a blocking pattern across the country with an upper low across the southwest, one across the eastern US and a large ridge over the central US. Surface high pressure was sliding east across the Ohio valley with low level winds slowly turning to the southeast locally. The 00z KSGF sounding measured a dry airmass in place with a PW value of 0.40in. Clear skies and calm to light winds have allowed for temps to fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s across a large part of the area. The coolest locations were in the eastern ozarks and near valleys/rivers where readings were in the lower to middle 30s.

Increasing High Temps, Cool Nights: Temps will most likely continue to drop prior to sunrise, even with a light wind. The Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9am for locations east of Springfield where temps in the low to middle 30s will allow for frost formation. Mostly sunny skies and a dry airmass will allow for temps to warm back to around average with most areas in the upper 60s to around 70. With the dry airmass remaining in place (dews in the 30s/40), temps will likely drop quickly this evening.

Temps tonight will again be coolest in the eastern Ozarks. Latest NBM has a 30-40% chance of temps dropping to or below 36 degrees east of Springfield. The limiting factor for cooler temps will be slightly higher southeast winds. If confidence increases in temps below 36 degrees then a Frost Advisory may be needed for areas east of Springfield again tonight/Monday morning. Slightly warmer air aloft advects in for Monday with highs in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Above Average Temps and Dry Conditions This Week: Ensembles are in decent agreement that mid level ridging will continue for the week, with increasing mid level heights towards the end of the week. 850mb temps will gradually warm into the 12-16C range and this will support gradually increasing temps. High temps will reach the upper 70s to around 80 from Wednesday through the end of the week. This upper level pattern does not favor rain chances with chances staying below 10 percent for the week ahead.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today through Monday. High level clouds may start to move into the area from the west tonight into Monday morning. South to southeasterly winds will occur through the TAF period, generally remaining at 10kts or less.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.