textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (<15%) for flurries through today. Little to no accumulations expected, with a dusting at most.

- Bitterly cold tonight into Saturday morning. Lows in the single digits and wind chills around -5 to -15 degrees. A Cold Advisory is in effect for portions of southeast KS into southern MO. Well below normal temperatures persist through the weekend.

- Warming trend early next week with temperatures returning to near normal. Highs in the middle to upper 40s, to near 50.

- Lower confidence in a potential system moving through next Tuesday into Wednesday. Uncertainty in the timing and placement of key features, including associated precipitation chances and precipitation types.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

This Morning-Tonight: Broad northwest flow persists over the region, with an upper level trough beginning to dig south into the Central CONUS. An associated shortwave slides through the pattern, as an Arctic airmass is progged to overspread the area today. Ahead of high pressure settling into the region later tonight, shortwave energy will attempt to squeeze some moisture out of the atmosphere. Radar depicts the presence of light echos over portions of the area this morning, with an additional batch to the northwest. While the 00Z sounding from KSGF depicted the presence of substantial dry air, there may be just enough moisture and forcing later today to support low chances (<15%) for light snow or flurries. Most locations are expected to remain dry, with the best chances overspreading central into south central MO this evening. Little to no accumulations are expected with this activity, and thus no potential impacts as a dusting at most may occur.

The storyline then turns to the return of Arctic high pressure and bitterly cold temperatures tonight and through much of the weekend. Lows tonight are progged to fall into the lower single digits, with breezy north winds supporting wind chills as low as -5 to -15. With that in mind, a Cold Weather is in effect for southeast KS into southern MO for tonight into Saturday morning. This is where criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory is being met or exceeded as a result of breezy north winds lingering through tonight. Regardless, a cold night is expected areawide whether in the advisory or not.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Saturday-Sunday: Cold temperatures persist into Saturday, with highs in lower 20s for most of the area. Northwest winds will gradually taper off through Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. Another cold night on Saturday with overnight lows in the single digits to near 10 degrees once again.

A gradual shift in the pattern into Sunday as the eastern periphery of the ridge out west nudges into the area. This will support highs climbing to near or above freezing in most locations, with highs in the lower to upper 30s as winds turn out of the south-southwest.

Monday-Thursday: The warming trend continues into early next week as a ridge shifts east into the Middle Mississippi Valley, supporting increasing mid-level heights and low level warm air advection. Ensemble guidance is leaning towards a return of near normal temperatures as early as Monday, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. However, there is still some guidance that does not completely buy into this solution, as gleaned from an interquartile spread of 10 to 15 degrees. Factors that may still limit warming on Monday include the presence of a snowpack and the placement of the ridge. Nonetheless, confidence increases in the "warmer" temperatures into Tuesday and beyond.

As we progress into Tuesday, a dip in the jet stream suggests a a shortwave slides through the central CONUS. There is still considerable model to model, and run to run variance on the timing and placement of key features with this system. Thus, confidence is lower at this time in precipitation chances and associated precipitation types. The latest NBM guidance lowered PoPs on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with areawide 20 to 40% chances. Additionally, the timing of any precipitation chances will ultimately determine if any frozen precipitation is introduced in the overnight period (Tuesday night into Wednesday morning). Check for back for updates to the forecast.

As we get into mid to late next week, the pattern becomes rather benign with drier weather and near to above normal temperatures favored. This trend is important to keep an eye on into late Winter as drought conditions worsen into fire weather season.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 455 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions likely to prevail through the TAF period. Mid to high level cloud cover today. Northerly winds around 8 to 12 knots, with occasional wind gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon into the evening. Low chances (<15%) for some flurries today, though confidence remains low.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Saturday for MOZ077-082-083-088>098-101>106.