textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will continue to move east across the area the rest of the overnight hours ending from west to east this morning, mainly remaining north of I-44. - Additional storms are expected to move into the area this afternoon into tonight. There is a Marginal (1 out 5) risk for severe storms west of Highway 65 and a Slight (2 out 5) risk for severe storms west of I-49 today and tonight.

- Storms are possible again on Thursday morning and afternoon, mainly east of I-49. There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe storms east of Highway 65 Thursday. - Another round of storms expected Friday evening into Saturday morning. There will be the potential for additional severe storms with this round especially northwest of I-44.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A front is currently stalled across east central Kansas into central Missouri early this morning. Showers and storms have developed along the front in an area of uncapped MUCAPE. A few stronger storms occurred across eastern Kansas but are weakening as they move east as deep layer shear is on the weaker side further to the east. A stronger storm is still possible early this morning, but overall the risk is decreasing with the currently activity. This activity will move east out of the area later this morning. The storms have lined up from west to east early this morning, with multiple storms tracking over the same location. Localized heavy rainfall will occur where training of storms are occurring. This activity will generally remain north of I-44 closer to the front as a cap is in place across southern Missouri currently.

An upper level shortwave trough will move east into the central Plains by this evening. As the trough moves east the cap across southern Missouri will start to weaken by late this morning into this afternoon. Scattered storm development will be possible across the area late this morning into the afternoon hours. A few strong to severe storms with hail up to the size of quarters will be possible with this activity, but deep layer shear will still not be overly strong as the trough remains off to the west area, so most storms will be non severe with this activity. This activity should push east of the area by this evening.

As the upper level trough moves towards/into the plains this afternoon surface low pressure will lift to the northeast across western Kansas/Nebraska and will push the front currently across central Missouri back to the north. A dry line will push across Kansas and Oklahoma. Storms will likely develop east of the dry line this afternoon/evening. The front lifting north into northern Missouri will extend back to the southwest across eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Storm development will be possible on the front across eastern Kansas too, coverage will likely be less than to the southwest along the dry line. If storms can develop across eastern Kansas they will move northeast and could clip areas west of I-49 this evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds will be the main risk. Low level shear will increase this evening as a low level jet develop, and could lead to a low tornado risk with this activity this evening.

The storms that develop across Oklahoma will lift northeast this evening and could push into the area late this evening and continue into the overnight hours. Instability will weaken to the east as the upper level trough remains to the west. The storms will move off the surface boundary and Theta-E difference ahead of the system will not be overly strong, so this could limit a strong cold pool developing and therefore a line of storms may be less likely as the front will stall and not keep up with the storms. This activity may be more cluster in nature as they move east into the area late this evening into the overnight hours. There could be a strong to severe storm risk with this activity with hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph the main risk west of Highway 65 tonight. If a cold pool and line segments can develop there could be a low spin up tornado risk with any surges to the east/northeast within the line of storms. It is also possible the storms weaken as the move into the area as they move out of the better instability and further east away from the upper level support.

Storms could be on going across the area Thursday morning. The upper level shortwave trough will lift northeast into Iowa on Thursday and will push the front into the area Thursday morning. Instability will increase ahead of the front Thursday morning, but a much drier air mass will be in place in the mid level of the atmosphere and may limit storm develop across the front across the western portions of the area. The front will move east of Highway 65 in the afternoon hours and will start to stall. Better moisture will be in place across the eastern Ozarks and storm development will be possible east of Highway 65 if not east of Highway 63. The storms will move off the front and be more scattered in nature. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds will be the main risk. Low level shear will start to increase in the evening hours but the storms will likely be east of the area by then.

Another upper level trough will move east into the Plains by Friday. The front that will move into the area will lift north across the area Thursday evening and night as the trough moves east. Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible along the front Thursday evening and night as it lifts north through the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The upper level trough will move east across the Plains Friday night and across the region. As the trough moves east as could front will move southeast into and across the area Friday evening and night. A line of showers and storms will likely develop along and behind the front as strong lift will occur along the fast moving front. There will be the potential for some strong to severe storms across the area Friday evening and night. Damaging winds will be the main risk. Showers and a few storms may linger behind the front Saturday morning but should move east of the area by Saturday afternoon.

Cooler and dry conditions are expected behind the front this weekend into early next week. Lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings, with highs in the 50s on Sunday and highs in the 60s early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Showers and storms will continue to move east across areas north of Highway 54 this morning. This activity will remain north of the TAF sites. Scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms will be possible this evening across southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri then to the east into the area tonight. Lower ceilings and visibilities will occur with the storms.

Outside the storms gusty southerly winds will occur today and become more south to southeasterly tonight remaining gusty.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.