textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM as heat index values warm to around 100 to 105 degrees. Those with outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday should make efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.

- Several rounds of isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through tonight, but widespread rain chances remain <50% until after midnight.

- Highest risk for severe weather remains confined to areas west of Highway 65 and to the overnight hours in association with a storm complex moving in from the west, but isolated pop-up storms will have a low severe risk with them as well. Damaging winds are the primary severe risk for both rounds of storms.

- Additional storm chances (20-50%) will be possible across the area at times from Sunday into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:

A weakly-organized MCS over northeast Kansas is slowly moving towards the northwest corner of the forecast area, decaying as it pushes southeast. To its north, another distinct MCS is moving into northwest Missouri from Nebraska. These storms are forming in an area of CVA ahead of a vort max associated with a mid-level shortwave ejecting into the Central Plains, which is pushing the ridge that maintained the hot and humid conditions through the work week off to the east, initiating a change in the overall pattern.

Outflow has raced ahead of the southern MCS as it approaches our area, indicating that severe potential will be limited as storms become increasingly elevated over a nocturnal capping inversion that would prevent severe winds from pushing down to the surface. On top of that, storms become further decayed and disorganized as they fall behind the outflow, which decreases confidence in the complex arriving to the forecast area at all.

Rain/Severe Weather Chances Today: BLUF- low confidence forecast, with the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms to develop and move across the area. Widespread shower and storm chances remain <50% until after midnight Sunday.

Must preface with this: overall confidence in all models, including CAMs, is low at this time. The inability of 00Z-06Z models to properly initiate ongoing convection, the lack of run-to-run consistency, and the lack of model-to-model consistency all decreases overall confidence in forecast outcomes. Anyways.

The first low-confidence precip chances come in the early morning hours today in the far northwest corner of the CWA as the remnants of the MCS in northeast Kansas approach. The vort max over northwest Missouri weakens and pivots northeast between now and 13Z, suggesting that the southernmost decaying MCS will have little direct synoptic support beyond weak WAA off the nose of the LLJ and thus continue weakening, and the northernmost MCS will move east with the vort max, which keeps our overall precip chances low (<30%). Due to the lack of organization/support, any storms that can persist long enough to make it to areas north of Highway 54 early this morning are unlikely to be strong/organized enough to be severe, though some gusty winds up to 40-50 mph could be possible if a deep updraft can re-form along the outflow. Additionally, any deep convection will be possible of producing heavy rainfall with localized rates 1-2"/hour, which would also result in a localized flooding risk with storms if they can sustain.

Between 8AM and 8PM, there are several factors that could interact and introduce additional shower and thunderstorm chances of varying intensity and coverage. There will be a remnant outflow boundary somewhere over the western portion of the area, which could serve as a focus area to kick up additional showers and thunderstorms. 3000- 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE will develop through the day, with the cap eroding by late morning from east to west. The shortwave moves east through northern Missouri through the day, with a north-south corridor of enhanced 500mb vorticity developing south into our area along the shortwave axis as a separate/disconnected weak 250mb trough moves into southwest Missouri from northeast Oklahoma. The 850mb flow pivots after 13Z, becoming northwesterly, which actually will act to increase warm/moist air advection slightly. Further east, an area of surface convergence also develops, which could help to initiate/sustain storms as well.

All of that said, would expect the potential for a period of enhanced PoPs along/southeast of I-44 in the late morning/early afternoon hours, ahead of the broader lift axis within an area of surface convergence in the eastern Ozarks. The better shear (25+ kts) lags by a few hours, so overall organized severe potential should remain fairly limited with this activity if it does form. However, damaging downburst winds could be possible with any modifications to the mesoscale environment, especially if more organized cold pools can form.

Areas further west will not have the same issues with shear or sources of lift. 25-35kts of 0-6km bulk shear (with pockets of up to 40-45kts at times) overspread the western half of our area by noon, which is roughly when the inhibition should be eroded and the several thousand J/kg of CAPE will be able to be tapped into. Additionally, both the larger vort axis and the remnant outflow boundary should be available to serve as a source of lift to initiate storms. Severe chances are better to the west of Highway 65 with any storms that develop from the late morning hours through the afternoon and evening, thanks to the increased shear. There are some questions about overall storm mode and how widespread potential storm/severe coverage could be this afternoon: storms could be more pulse-like in nature, but despite the short lifespan may be capable of damaging winds to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. Storms will also be efficient rainfall producers given the humid air mass in place, which would lead to localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat anywhere that sees more than 1-2" of rain in a couple of hours.

The other twist in the forecast is the potential for an MCS to begin as semi-discrete convection outside of our forecast area in northern Missouri/northeast Kansas this afternoon/evening, as well as in southern Kansas. This gives us dual potential for remnant MCS activity as the systems mature and move into our area late this evening into tonight. The confidence in initial development of the southern Kansas MCS is higher, though the track of the system may dive south enough that our far SW counties may only be skimmed, reducing confidence in location. Additionally, these two systems may interact with each other, which would further complicate confidence in PoP placement and severe weather potential. However, any organized cold pools that develop in such a volatile thermodynamic environment will be capable of damaging winds, and maybe hail to the size of quarters (especially in areas along and west of I-49). The SPC Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk is primarily for this overnight MCS activity, as well as the Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall in our far western counties. HREF and REFS LPMMs indicate the potential for localized amounts as much as 3-5" overnight with this activity, so we are certainly also concerned about flooding potential with the overnight system.

Heat/Temperature: Highs today are forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the potential to slightly underachieve depending on how robust cloud cover is with the shower/storm chances and how early said cloud cover forms. Expected heat indices between 95 and 105 would also be slightly lower if temperatures end up a few degrees cooler. Regardless, it will be hot, and this level of heat will require active efforts to remain hydrated if enjoying outdoor activities. Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 8 PM tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Sunday: Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Sunday even after the early departure of the MCS that moves through during the early morning ours, with 45-55% chances of showers and storms through the day as a cold front moves across the area. The cold front will bring relief from the heat finally, dropping temperatures closer to normal in the mid- to upper 80s and allowing us to drop the Heat Advisory.

Next week: Although details are still a bit limited, it appears that the frontal boundary may stall south of the area, which could drift back north early the in the week and bring additional precip chances to southern and eastern portions of the area through Wednesday. As ridging builds over the central Plains through the week, the heat slowly builds too, with temperatures back into the 90s by mid- week with heat indices again exceeding 100 degrees. The ridging is shorter lived than this past week though, with another synoptic trough pushing across the Plains again on Thursday, which will likely be our next active weather day after this weekend ends.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Light southerly winds becoming southwesterly after 12Z, and becoming light and variable after 00Z. Scattered mid- to high- level cloud cover through the period. Scattered precipitation possible after 12Z, but most likely after 00Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4: KSGF: 78/1901

July 5: KSGF: 76/1990

July 9: KSGF: 76/1913

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.