textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning with a MCS. Confidence remains low. The primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances persist Wednesday through Friday. An associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding risk will accompany each round. A Slight Risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding capture this potential on Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Today-Tonight: Guidance continues to capture low-amplitude ridging across our western CONUS with enhanced mid-level flow over the Plains. This pattern supports warm moist air advecting into the region, with a series of shortwaves progged to translate through the area. A frontal boundary will remain stationed south.

For later today, highs warm into the lower 80s. Most of the morning and afternoon will remain dry across the area before additional rain chances overspread the area this evening. There remains some uncertainty on the extent of coverage, though latest CAMs keep activity scattered across southeast KS into southwest MO. This is associated with energy diving out of the Plains this afternoon. Most locations look to remain dry, with a few instances of heavy downpours.

By this evening into tonight, guidance varies on the potential development and propagation southeastward of a MCS. The latest trends suggest the development to occur across the High Plains and track west of the area into OK. There is still a few CAMs that want to drop the MCS through our area, though these are becoming outliers for the time being. The general thought process is that any developed/mature MCS diving southeast with the Corfidi Vectors would follow the instability gradient. This gradient appears to being setting up just west of the area. Despite this lingering uncertainty, SPC has maintained a Marginal (1 of 5) severe risk across much of the area given the low chance for a MCS to glance the area. Mesoscale trends will help identify how the overnight MCS plays out tonight. If the complex gets into the area, the primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Check back for updates this afternoon. To put it simply, this severe is conditional and confidence remains low.

Wednesday: Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm chances persist across the area on Wednesday, though there remains some uncertainty on the extent of coverage through the morning and afternoon remains low confidence. Higher rain chances overspread the area into Wednesday night. The environment will be favorable for localized heavy rainfall and flooding, especially if thunderstorms track over the same areas. This can be gleaned by PWATs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches, supporting rainfall rates upwards of 1 to 2+ inches per a hour. WPC has highlighted the area in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding on Wednesday. Of particular concern will be areas that received heavy rainfall this past weekend, with elevated streamflows and saturated soils in place. Meanwhile, SPC highlights another Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, though confidence remains low and conditional on destabilization. This pattern persists beyond Wednesday into late this week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thursday-Friday: Ensemble guidance depicts additional high coverage rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday through Friday. There is still remaining uncertainty with exact track of each shortwave, and thus where the corridors of heaviest rainfall align. This will be best captured in future forecast updates. Once again, high PWATs in place will support efficient rainfall rates. WPC captures the potential for additional excessive rainfall and flash flooding with Slight (2 of 4) risk on Thursday and Marginal (1 of 4) risk on Friday. As confidence increases in potential corridors of heavier rainfall, a Flood Watch may need to be introduced. The latest trends suggest the highest amounts to be focused along and north of Interstate 44.

This Weekend into Early Next Week: Cluster analysis suggests a pattern chance to unfold into the upcoming weekend, featuring a building ridge over the central CONUS. This would bring the area our first taste of Summer, with warmer temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. WPC and CPC outlooks highlight the potential for excessive heat as early as this weekend, and continuing through next week. This may be a welcomed change after a very active June.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A localized corridor of reduced ceilings (700 to 1500 feet) this morning at KBBG, supporting a period of IFR to MVFR conditions through mid-morning. Otherwise, additional low to mid level clouds overspread the area this morning, with flight conditions remaining VFR with ceilings around 5000 feet or higher.

Low confidence in showers and thunderstorms this evening, as captured with PROB30 groups. Additional PROB30 groups are introduced late in the TAF period to capture the potential for a complex of thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning. Even if the complex does not impact the TAF sites, expect MVFR ceilings to return tonight into Wednesday morning. A reduction of visibilities and ceilings would accompany any thunderstorms. Light east-southeast winds through the period at 5 to 10 knots.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.