textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Low humidity and gusty south winds will create elevated fire conditions into this evening, especially west of Highway 65. - Dry with above normal temperatures are favored this weekend through next week. Near record breaking high temperatures by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Surface high pressure and a surface ridge had moved south and east of the Ozarks this afternoon with surface winds becoming southerly across the region. Satellite IR imagery showed middle to high cloud cover moving over the area which is expected to continue but produce no sensible weather for the area tonight into Saturday.

Surface low pressure located over southern Saskatchewan Province in Canada, will begin to slide east with a lob of low pressure and a cold front developing this evening into the overnight hours. The cold front will extend south into the central plains, which will aid in tightening the surface pressure gradient and bring a return of some breezy winds, though nothing close to yesterdays gusty winds. Winds this evening and overnight should gust from 20-25mph with sustained winds from 10-15mph through the overnight in advance of the front based on NBM/HRRR/SREF.

Little if any moisture is available for more than clouds to develop with this front and expectations are for a dry frontal passage during the day Saturday. Winds will shift from southerly to northwesterly by early afternoon tomorrow for the Ozarks with additional cool and dry air filtering into the region in the wake of the front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Canadian high pressure will then move south into the region Saturday night and continue to control the regions weather through the weekend and into the start of next week. Sunday evening into Monday morning, winds will shift out of the south and may become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens and as lee cyclogenesis occurs Monday evening and surface low pressure moves into and ultimately across the plains into the middle of the week.

Initially zonal upper level flow will transition into upper level ridging through the week with 850mb temperatures in the 10-14 degrees C range Monday and Tuesday. This pattern is expected to remain in place through the holiday week with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 50s and 60s and the potential for near record high temperatures for Christmas Day with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. NBM guidance has continued good, 50-80% chance, of high temps greater than 70 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. See the climate section below for more details.

This pattern will also act to keep rain chances out of the region for the most part. The only period where some moisture may produce light rain might occur Late Tuesday night as a warm front lifts into the region, and then the best potential will be in the far eastern Ozarks. Otherwise, chances will be well less than 10 percent through next week with cluster analysis not showing any meaningful chances through Friday.

Looking further ahead, a glance at the latest Wave 5 pattern, GEFS based Arctic Oscillation (AO) and NAO indicies show a shift towards negative indicies which can bring cooler weather to areas east of the Rockies. This could lead to a pattern flip/shift which could occur around the last few days of the year. A caveat would be the rather strong depiction of a negative PNA as well, if this were to occur in conjunction with the negative NAO/AO pattern, this may lead to a more active upper level pattern across the center of the country for the end of next week into the end of the month.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions this TAF period, however wind shear will be a significant hazard for roughly the first half of the period. Surface winds will be southerly up to around 15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts through midday Saturday, and low-level wind shear will peak at 50-60 kts around sunrise. Then, winds decrease and begin to turn clockwise through the remainder of the period, with easterly winds by 18Z and northerly winds by 00Z. A few passing high clouds and no precipitation expected.

CLIMATE

Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 23: KSGF: 72/1982 KJLN: 73/1982 KVIH: 68/1904 KUNO: 68/1996

December 24: KSGF: 74/1955 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/9999 KUNO: 74/1955

December 25: KSGF: 74/1889 KJLN: 72/2016 KVIH: 71/1971 KUNO: 74/2021

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 24: KSGF: 54/1889

December 25: KSGF: 58/1889

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.