textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch is effect through 7 PM Thursday as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system.

- Pattern change incoming with high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. Patchy frost may occur Saturday and Sunday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

High pressure overhead for one more day before our pattern change arrives. The remnants of a tropical system will combine with an upper-level low pressure system to bring us shower and thunderstorm chances for the end of the week. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas north of I-44 starting tonight at 10 PM and continuing until 7 PM Thursday night. Forecast rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with localized higher amounts near 5 inches possible. This will be a tropical type of airmass coming in, which means these showers will be efficient rainfall producers and can drop a large amount of rain in a short amount of time. This is especially true if convection trains over the same areas throughout the duration of this event. Be mindful of flooding at night and do not drive through flooded roadways especially low-water crossings. Rain showers will be intermittent and there will be breaks over the next couple of days.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with this system. There is a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather late tonight mainly north of I-44 closer towards the front. There is another chance for severe weather Wednesday late evening with a small area of a Slight risk (2/5) being introduced by SPC over far SW MO. Main threats are still 60 mph winds and localized heavy rainfall. However, there is a low-end tornado threat over far SW MO in the Slight risk area. This due to the surface low moving up from NE OK and an abundant amount of southwesterly 0-6km and 0-3km bulk shear in an uncapped environment. Any storms that become super-cellular are forecast to merge into a line segment as they push through the SW portion of our area. In this is where the low-end tornado threat lies. All the ingredients for severe weather will be available throughout Wednesday, it's just if they can align perfectly to produce strong/severe storms. There may be a few rumbles of thunder throughout Wednesday, but don't assume that every thunderstorm will be severe tomorrow, because they more than likely will not be. This is mostly due to the cloud cover and inability for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Rain will continue intermittently through Thursday and will slowly taper off late Thursday night. Expect winds to remain elevated through the rest of the week at at least 20 mph during the daytime hours. Our cold front moves through by Friday morning and we will feel the cold air advection with this front. Winds flip out of the north and we'll feel a brisk gusty wind near 35 mph with mostly cloudy skies to start Friday and it'll feel chilly with morning temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Clouds clear throughout the day and temperatures only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area making it truly feel like fall.

These fall-like temperatures stick around through the weekend with a chance for our first frost possible on Saturday morning with lows dipping into the mid 30s in a few places. Highs stick in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s through the weekend as high pressure builds back over the area. No rain is expected for the start of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms extends from central Oklahoma into northern Missouri. The leading edge of showers and storms currently in east central Kansas/west central Missouri will continue to move east/southeast overnight and impact the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds will shift to the northwest and be gusty for a short period with the storms.

Additional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will continue to occur across the area at times Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours.

Ceilings will lower behind the storms, especially Wednesday evening with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible. Some light rain or drizzle will be possible Wednesday afternoon along with lower visibilities across the area within any rain/drizzle that can develop.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089.