textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium confidence in frost development in the eastern Ozarks Saturday night.

- 50-70% shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Split upper-level flow was ongoing across the Plains this afternoon with Missouri under a more zonal pattern. At the surface, a weak trough/baroclinic boundary was noted across northern Missouri, gradually pushing southeast.

Dry though the Weekend:

With a dry airmass in place and an overall lack of synoptic lift, the region will generally remain precipitation-free through the weekend. A few CAMs do suggest the aforementioned surface front may be enough to squeeze out a few sprinkles across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas tonight, but confidence in occurrence is low, and PoPs have been limited to less than 20%.

Frost Potential Saturday Night:

Temperatures will dip into the 30s for portions of the area tonight and Saturday night. The coldest temperatures tonight will be across central Missouri; on Saturday night, they will be across the eastern Ozarks. NBM probabilities of temperatures less than 36 degrees--a proxy for frost potential--are highest Saturday night across the eastern Ozarks where they range from 40 to 60%. One caveat against frost development is that low- level moisture will not be particularly abundant, however. If temperatures trend cooler or forecast confidence increases over the next 24 hours, a Frost Advisory may be needed in future forecast packages.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Global models suggest two shortwave troughs will be apparent across the western CONUS early next week. By late Monday, the two streams begin to phase with one another as the upper-level jet shifts east. The resultant increasing Gulf moisture return and synoptic lift will aid in shower and thunderstorm development across the Missouri and Mississippi valleys. Ensemble clusters continue to depict varying solutions in the timing and magnitude of these features and any precipitation through this period, which reduces overall confidence in the overlap of relevant severe weather parameters. This system will need to be monitored in the coming days to better assess any severe thunderstorm potential. For what it's worth, most AI/ML guidance depict at least a modest signal for severe weather in our forecast area on Monday and Tuesday.

Cooler temperatures move in behind the trough/front on Wednesday, with high temperatures likely in the 60s. NBM percentile data suggest temperatures warm closer to climatological averages late in the week, though ensemble clusters depict increasing variability by this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a low chance (<30%) for a sprinkle or two with the passage of a surface boundary after 00Z this evening, but confidence in both occurrence and impact were too low to include in the current TAFs.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.