textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence that much-above-average temperatures will occur early next week. - Widespread rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday. There is currently a 15% chance for severe thunderstorms with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 141 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Synoptic Overview:

The line of showers and storms that moved through the area last night has now pushed east of the forecast area and was plodding through the Ohio Valley all the way down to northeast Texas early this afternoon. Substantial cloud cover has remained over much of Missouri behind the front. Aloft, water vapor imagery nicely showed an upper-level low in the process of cutting off from the synoptic flow over the Pacific southwest and becoming unphased with the northern stream energy.

Cooler Today:

The strong cold front this morning brought substantially cooler air to the Missouri Ozarks this morning, and the thick stratus deck overhead has and will continue to prevent much warming from occurring throughout the day. Thus, we have lowered temperatures quite substantially this afternoon. For many, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s today. The warmest conditions will be across south-central and southeast Missouri in closer proximity to the front, where temperatures will remain in the 60s. The clouds will clear out this evening as the front continues to push east and high pressure takes its place.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 141 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Much-Above-Average Temperatures Early Next Week:

Global models depict the upper-level pattern becoming more zonal over the region early next week. With southerly low-level flow, warm air advection will once again allow for the return of above-average temperatures. In fact, temperatures may challenge daily records on Monday and Tuesday (but especially Monday). With clear or mostly clear skies and a relatively stagnant pattern, NBM temperature percentile ranges are quite small, indicating high forecast confidence. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are likely. Overnight temperatures will be anomalously warm as well, with minimum temperatures near 60 degrees. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index captures this signal well, with values nearly maxing out in the forecast area. These temperatures are around 20 to 25 degrees above average.

A warm airmass will remain in place on Tuesday and result in continued much-above-average temperatures; however, a bit more uncertainty creeps into the forecast by then with the arrival of rain chances. Behind the rain that is forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday, a cooler airmass will (at least briefly) settle into the region.

Severe Thunderstorm Chances on Tuesday:

Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement in shifting the aforementioned cutoff low that's currently over the Pacific southwest to the east late Monday into Tuesday, transitioning it to an open wave as it does so. This shift will open up the Gulf and result in increased moisture return across an expansive open warm sector spanning the southern Plains and Midwest. Deep synoptic ascent should allow for thunderstorm development across this region on Tuesday. With deep-layer shear provided by the enhanced flow aloft, severe storms will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center maintains its 15% risk areawide on Tuesday, with the most likely timing currently being Tuesday afternoon and evening. Furthermore, machine-learning guidance continues to highlight a similar area for severe thunderstorm probabilities. At this point, we will continue to monitor forecast trends regarding the timing of the causal wave and the resultant magnitudes of the parameter space that will ultimately shape the consequent severe risk level.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Widespread clouds are covering most of the state of Missouri behind the cold front that passed through the state earlier this morning. MVFR ceilings have been observed across much of the state, with IFR or lower ceilings noted atop the Ozark Plateau. These clouds will be slow to clear today with lingering low- level moisture. In fact, brief periods of reduced visibilities will remain possible into the early afternoon.

Winds will remain out of the northwest through the afternoon before shifting to the southwest after 06Z as high pressure moves into the area.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.