textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will continue this afternoon. - There is a marginal to slight risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening east of Highway 63, however confidence in storm development and coverage is low. - Another round of thunderstorms (some severe) are expected Friday evening and night. The highest chances for severe storms are expected along and northwest of a Branson to Rolla Missouri Line. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with a line of thunderstorms.

- Cooler temperatures will occur behind the front this weekend into early next week, as lows in the 30s are expected Sunday and Monday mornings. These colder temperatures could lead to the potential for frost to form if winds are light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a strong/compact upper low moving into Iowa with another wave moving through the northwest US. A surface low was also moving into Iowa with a trailing front across eastern Kansas. Clouds were beginning to slowly clear out from west to east with temps heating up into the 70s. The surface pressure gradient and breaks in the clouds were allowing for wind gusts of 35-45mph across the area. SPC mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE around 1000j/kg, little inhibition and 0-6km shear of 30-40kts. There were a few showers east of Highway 65 but most locations were dry.

Winds This Afternoon: As the surface low moves further northeast, winds will slowly begin to decrease this evening. Until this evening, southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common.

Thunderstorm Potential This Afternoon/Evening: Instability will continue to slowly increase this afternoon as the front moves in however forcing along the front is rather weak. Large scale ascent will be lacking and more focused north of the region. Latest HRRR and Warn On Forecast data suggests that locations east of Highway 63 could see a few storms try to become organized through 6pm however that window is closing quickly. If a storm can develop and become organized then large hail to the size of quarters, damaging winds and even a tornado could occur. Confidence is low in the coverage of storms east of Highway 63 this afternoon.

The front then sort of stalls over the area tonight. Upper level forcing looks weak therefore rain chances remain below 30% overnight with most locations remaining dry. It will be a mild night with lows in the 60s with steady south winds.

Thunderstorm Potential Friday Night: Upper level energy will move into the plains during the day with the front lifting north of our area. Forecast soundings suggest the area will be in the warm sector but capped through the day with high temps in the low 80s. By early evening, a line of storms is likely to become organized from northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas. Forecast soundings and HREF data suggests an unstable airmass with ML CAPE around 1000j/kg. Wind shear again looks to be a potential limiting factor to severe storms as 0-6km shear could remain in the 30kt range with 0-3km shear in the 20-30kt range. Higher shear looks to remain north of the area and this is due to the system remaining north of the area and not an overly strong low level jet (850mb jet at 40kts).

Confidence is high that a line of storms will move into our southeast Kansas counties as early as 5-6pm Friday however more likely after 6pm. This line of storms will then sweep through southern Missouri the rest of the evening, exiting the eastern ozarks by 3-5am Saturday. Given the likelihood of a squall line, damaging winds are the main concern. We will need to monitor the 0-3km shear vectors tomorrow night as any increase in speeds would potentially increase the QLCS/quick spin up tornado threat. Any surges of the line to the northeast would be a concern for brief tornadoes. Locations along and northwest of a Branson to Rolla line remain in the slight risk for tomorrow night.

Rainfall Friday Night: If the line of storm remains progressive in nature/quick then rainfall amounts will remain in the 0.5 to 1 inch range (latest HREF mean). There are a CAMS showing pockets of 2-3 inches and this could occur if the line slows down or storms train over the same areas. Currently it looks like the heaviest rains will stay southeast of where the heaviest rains occurred last night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Much Cooler Temps This Weekend: A much cooler and drier airmass will build into the area from the northwest. Latest NBM continues to highlight a 30-50% (low to moderate) chance of temps dropping below 36 degrees both those mornings therefore we will need to monitor for frost formation if winds are light enough. These low probs suggest that a hard freeze is unlikely.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

3-4kft ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours at the sites with gradual clearing this evening. The chance of showers and storms remains less than 30 percent. Southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon with frequent 30-35kt gusts. Winds will then decrease this evening and turn more to the south on Friday. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites Friday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.