textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Highs return to the middle to upper 80s through mid to late week.

- Daily humidity values will drop into the 20-35% range however light winds (gusts less than 15mph) will keep the fire weather threat limited.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the area in a northwest flow pattern with an upper level ridge across the southwest US. High pressure over the Great Lakes region continues to advect in a dry airmass with easterly winds. The 12z SGF sounding measured this dry airmass with a PW value of 0.51in and 12% humidity in the mid levels. After early morning temps in the 40s/50s, this dry airmass and clear skies has allowed for temps to climb well into the 70s.

Warm and Dry Conditions: A persistence forecast will rule given no significant pattern changes in the next few days. We have lowered dewpoints today through Tuesday from the NBM given stronger mixing. Highs this afternoon will likely peak around 80 with lower 80s on Tuesday. Confidence is high that daily afternoon RH's will drop into the 20-35% range. This will allow for an easier potential for fire starts however winds will remain light with gusts less than 15kts. This will keep fire threat/spread limited. Winds will begin to switch around to the south on Tuesday however given the dry air to our south, no significant moisture recovery is expected. Low temps tonight should be similar to this morning with the sheltered/valley locations in the 40s and 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Warm and Dry Conditions: This persistence forecast will largely prevail through the end of the week however daily temps will climb a few degrees each day. This is due to southerly low level winds and an increase in 850mb temps (closer to 15-18C). NBM temp spreads are small with highs in the middle to potentially upper 80s Wednesday through Sunday. These temps are roughly 10-15 degrees above average for early October. Daily RH values in the 25-35% range will continue however winds still look to remain fairly low. Will need to monitor for any days/periods where winds can increase as this would increase the fire spread threat.

Rain Chances?: There are a couple of systems that give us some hope for rainfall however both systems are not really in the picture until at least Sunday. This leads to high confidence in dry conditions for the remainder of the week and perhaps all weekend. There is currently energy in the western part of the Gulf of America that some ensemble model members want to develop into a tropical system over the coming days. We will want to track that however current ensembles suggest this energy remaining east of our region if it does develop and move inland. The other rain opportunity would be about 7-8 days from now as ensembles suggest an upper trough moving into the northern US. Confidence in both these systems is low and the drought is likely to persist and worsen this week due to the lack of rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. Winds will remain light out of the east with a gradual turn to the southeast on Tuesday. Wind gusts will likely remain less than 15kts. There is low potential for some patchy fog at BBG around sunrise Tuesday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.