textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk for severe weather across most of the area through Saturday. Severe storms may occur at anytime during this period. Hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized flash flooding.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Saturday. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over areas already saturated brings a Slight to Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding. Additional localized rainfall amounts of up to 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible.

- Relatively drier with near-normal temperatures next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Early morning satellite imagery showed continued development of showers and storms with some cooling cloud tops along a stalled frontal boundary across the Ozarks. Surface analysis showed the frontal boundary generally along the Highway 60 corridor where storms were ongoing. This was likely in response to a shortwave trough moving across Missouri.

The combination of the above features has allowed for the development of an axis of slow- moving and locally training showers and thunderstorms oriented west to east from Pittsburg, KS to the east generally along and north of I-44.

MLCAPE values along and ahead of the front we noted between 1500 to 2000 J/kg with a rather moist airmass with precipitable water values from 1.75 to 2.0 inches. In addition, 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear is available which would favor some organized convection into the morning as storms generally move slowly eastward along the front. With good DCAPE as well, as the storms move through the region, a few storms may become strong to isolated severe. The main concern will be for damaging winds.

Thanks to the high PW's, rainfall rates from 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour will be possible with with the stronger and more organized cells. Where cells train over the same regions, as much as 3 to 5 inches of rainfall may occur. Short term models/CAMS have struggled with the placement of the overnight convection, though the NAM Nest and HRRR did show some indication of the ongoing activity.

As a result of the rainfall potential some areas of flash flooding will be possible with the high rainfall rates and especially the cell- training concerns. This prompted the continuation and slight expansion of the Flash Flood Watch that is in effect through this evening.

The front is expected to sag south into northern Arkansas or linger along the state line through this afternoon and evening. This may allow for continued shower and storms to impact some locations into this evening, otherwise, partly cloudy skies and light winds will occur across the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Once the front move south of the region, upper level ridging will build over the region. This will bring high pressure to the center of the country with mild and around seasonable normal conditions for Sunday and into the middle to end of next week.

The upper ridge does retrograde to the west by the middle of the week which may bring some low end chances for showers for Wednesday, though confidence is low at this time. This pattern will brings highs in the middle to upper 80s, edging towards lower 90s towards the end of the week, and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT SAT Jul 11 2026

A stalled front across the area will allow for continued shower and storm development through the morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR flight conditions with impacts mainly to visibilities where rain occurs. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light winds.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ097-101. MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-067>071- 077>083-088>092-094-097-098-106.