textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder conditions will remain over the area into early Monday.

- Warming trend begins Monday, with well above normal temperatures returning through mid week.

- Rain chances (15-45%) will occur on Thursday with a front passage. Colder conditions will move into the area Thursday night behind the front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A colder air mass is in place across the area as early afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the upper teens to the middle 20s. Highs this afternoon will only warm into the lower to upper 20s. Surface high pressure is over the region which will result in light winds occurring this afternoon and evening.

The area of surface high pressure will start to move off to the east tonight into Monday allowing southerly winds to return to the area. Lows will range from the lower teens (with some isolated readings in the upper single digits) across south central Missouri to near 20 degrees across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. Mostly clear skies will occur across the area through tonight with just a few passing high clouds. Southeasterly winds will start to increase slightly tonight allowing wind chills to drop into the single digits with a few locations across the eastern Ozarks having wind chill values around zero tonight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Southwesterly winds will develop on Monday and become gusty as gusts up to 30 mph will occur at times, especially west of Highway 65. The southwesterly winds will start a warming trend across the area as highs warm into the 40s on Monday. A drier air mass will remain in place on Monday and will result in afternoon humidity values dropping into the 25 to 35% range. Some locations across south central Missouri could see RH values drop to around 20% Monday afternoon as moisture will be slower to advect across the east. Winds will be the weakest where the humidity values are the lowest, but with the drier conditions and gusty winds developing, some elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop across portions of the area Monday afternoon.

The warmer air mass will continue to advect and remain over the region through at least Wednesday night. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will warm into the 50s with some readings in the lower 60s occurring on Wednesday. A weak upper level disturbance will move across the region Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited so only a slight increase in mid to high level clouds are expected with the disturbance, and will not have much impact on temperatures.

An upper level trough will dig southeast across the northern Plains on Wednesday night and across the region on Thursday. The ensemble model members are coming into better agreement on the trough digging further south and sending a cold front through the region on Thursday. Rain chances will occur along the front (15-45% probabilities) with the better chances occurring east of Highway 65 where better moisture return will occur. Some weak instability could develop and some isolated rumbles of thunder (5-10% chance) could be possible on Thursday.

A colder air mass will advect into the area behind the front. Looking at long wave charts a trough will be in place over the region which will support the trough digging further south, which the ensemble model members are coming in better agreement on. Highs are Thursday will be dependent on the exact timing of the front. Where the front moves through later in the day, highs in the 50s will occur. However, temperatures will likely drop behind the front as it moves southeast through the area.

A colder air mass will advect into the area behind the front and we will likely see lows in the teens to lower 20s Thursday night into Friday morning. The deterministic NBM's lows for Friday morning are trending colder and are closer to the 25th percentile of the NBM statistical spread. It's possible that the lows could be closer to the 25th percentile which would be in the teens for much of the area for Friday morning. The precipitation with the front will end before the colder air mass advects in, so all rain will occur.

The colder conditions will be short-lived as the trough will continue to move off to the east and more zonal to slight ridging sets up next weekend over the region as upper level long wave troughing develops over the west coast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 459 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entirety of the TAF period. Current east-northeast surface winds will continue to shift, becoming south-southwesterly by tonight. Expect an increase in wind speeds throughout the period, with gusts up to 20-25kts primarily at KSGF and KJLN during the morning/afternoon hours generally between 13Z-23Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.