textproduct: Springfield

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today with highs ranging from the 50s to the north to around 60 closer to the Arkansas border. - Some spotty light rain will be possible tonight into Friday though rainfall amounts to be less than a tenth of an inch

- Dry conditions to continue through much of next week...with well above normal temperatures to start the work week.

- Next chances for widespread precipitation hold off until the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The weather pattern tonight is dominated by a upper ridge extending from Mexico to British Columbia along with upper cyclones over the northern Great Lakes and over the California coast. At the surface a cold front along I-70 this evening was moving southward and will bring nothing more than a wind shift as it moves through the forecast area today before stalling over northern Arkansas tonight.

00z models have trended a bit more organized with a shortwave that evolves under the western ridge into the Texas Panhandle region...enhancing convergence along the frontal boundary as it moves back northward as a pseudo warm front tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible in this regime. At this time it looks like areas along the MO-AR border would have the better chance (20-30%) late tonight into Friday morning with a few showers continuing over south central Missouri Friday afternoon. As this activity is centered along the northward moving front...some northward adjustment may be warranted. With precipital water being less than a half inch all the way to the Gulf Coast coupled with limited residence time of the showers...areas that do see rain should expect only sprinkles up to perhaps a tenth of an inch of accumulation.

Cloud cover over areas along and north of Highway 54 to knock back highs temps a bit today...with areas along I-44 to the Arkansas border again seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s...falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday as the frontal boundary is pushed back southward.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Model uniformity in the short range gives way to differing solutions in handling shortwave energy impacting the western ridge toward the start of next week raising some minor differences in temperatures/clouds/winds...though the pattern is expected to be progressive and warmer than normal with little to no impactful weather other than continued dry conditions.

Signals for rain chances (20-40%) then appear over the latter part of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the entire TAF period at SGF and BBG with only increasing high cloud cover and variable light winds through the period. With a frontal boundary stretched across central Missouri, there is a very low 5-15% chance for low clouds to enter SGF and JLN between 12-17Z. There is much higher confidence for these low clouds to stay north of the area.

A low pressure system will pass through Arkansas Friday morning, which will bring a 30-50% chance for light rain and associated low-level clouds at BBG between 14-18Z.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.