textproduct: Seattle/Tacoma

UPDATE

Satellite imagery shows plenty of high clouds over Western Washington this evening. Doppler radar has the rain associated with the approaching front well offshore at 8 PM/04Z. Temperatures were in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Bellingham's high of 68 today tied for the 5th warmest November day on record. Wednesday tied for the second warmest November day on record in Bellingham.

Current forecast on track with rain starting along the coast in Friday morning with the rain spreading inland in the afternoon. The combination of high tides and wind will result in possible significant coastal flooding in the San Juans and minor coastal flooding along the coast and Puget Sound, including the Seattle area along Puget Sound.

Second system arriving later Saturday will bring more rain and will be the windier of the next two systems.

Current forecast on track. Updated aviation and marine sections below. Felton

SYNOPSIS

A cold front remains stalled offshore today with mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

A frontal system remains stalled offshore today for another dry and mild day across western WA. Temperatures continue to track warmer than average with highs around 60. East winds will increase across the Cascade tonight with gusts to 20-30 MPH in the gaps and foothills.

The stalled frontal system will slowly track east and inland on Friday with the bulk of the rain along the coast. Rain will spread inland mid to late morning and afternoon with around a tenth to a quarter inch for most areas. High astronomical tide and lower pressure may lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding. The timing would be around the time of high tide Friday morning. In addition, large waves will reach the coast with seas of 20 ft and a High Surf Advisory is in effect.

Another strong Pacific frontal system is poised to impact the Pac NW Saturday-Sunday for more rain, gusty winds and high elevation snow. Rain-wise, we're looking at another 1-3 inches of rain along the coast this weekend with 0.50-1.00 inches in the interior. Additional rainfall in the Olympics will keep the Skokomish River running high with the potential for flooding. It'll be windy too with the potential for strong wind gusts along the coast of 40-50 MPH. Interior areas will see gusts of 30-40 MPH (winds peaking Saturday night). 33

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers will linger on Sunday and Monday with a trough over the region. Snow levels will lower to around 4000 ft on Monday with just light snow amounts in the mountains. Temperatures will track closer to average with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower 50s. The next system slated for midweek is pushing south toward Oregon with some wrap-around moisture clipping our southern border. A Rex Block pattern sets up over the West late in the week with drier conditions forecast for western WA. 33

AVIATION

A stalled front remains offshore this evening. Majority of terminals are VFR this evening with some mist being reported around KOLM down to MVFR/IFR. The front will gain momentum inland tonight into Friday with showers expected to spread inland. Low level wind shear may impact terminals as the frontal system moves through. Ceilings will likely briefly dip to MVFR as the rain pushes through Friday morning, though conditions are favored to remain predominantly VFR for much of the day. The exception will be along the coast, where IFR conditions are expected to develop by Friday morning and continue throughout the day in rain, low ceilings, and mist. Post frontal showers will develop Friday afternoon, with slight chances for a few lightning strikes along the coast (confidence too low to include in TAFs at this time). Surface winds will generally remain south/southeast through the period, with winds generally 5-10 kt with gusts to 20 kt for the Puget Sound terminals and higher gusts up to 30 to 40 kt along the coast and over the mountains.

KSEA...VFR conditions with high clouds will continue into the mid morning. A frontal system will push inland between 12z-18z, bringing rain and potential for low level wind shear at the terminal. While conditions are expected to remain predominantly VFR, MVFR may briefly develop in heavier rain showers. Winds will generally remain out of the south or southeast around 10 kt or less, with gusts to 20 kt developing at the terminal Friday afternoon.

15/HPR

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories for the East Strait of Juan de Fuca and Grays Harbor Bar will continue through the evening as SCAs transition to a Gale Warning over the coastal waters this evening as a stalled frontal system begins to push inland. The strongest winds will occur over the coastal waters later this evening into early Friday morning, reaching high end gale force. An occasional storm force gust cannot be ruled out, particularly over the outer coastal waters. Winds will remain elevated over the coastal waters and over the East Entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca throughout the day Friday, with Small Craft winds picking up over the northern inland waters late Friday as the front shifts eastward.

While winds over the inner waters remain elevated into Saturday morning, winds over the coastal waters will briefly decrease. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for seas during this lull in wind, with an even stronger frontal system moving in close behind. Ensembles continue to show strong potential for Storm Force winds over the outer waters on Saturday, with an 60% to 70% chance of maximum wind gusts exceeding 50 knots over the outer coastal waters.

Small Craft winds are favored to continue on Sunday, at least over the coastal waters and potentially over some of the inner waters as well. Conditions are favored to calm by Monday, with potential for continued windy conditions over the waters returning by Tuesday.

Seas will remain elevated through the weekend as a series of dynamic systems cross area waters. Friday's system will bring very large seas to the Washington coast, with high confidence in waves building to 20 feet or above by Friday afternoon, with waves across the coastal waters as high as 26-27 feet. These large waves will also be very energetic, with a dominant period of 18 to 22 seconds. Seas will remain elevated through Saturday morning and will briefly ease a bit into early Sunday, remaining between 14 to 18 feet. Another system will send another round of large, long period waves on Sunday with another round of waves likely 20 feet or higher through early Monday. Seas look to ease a bit after Monday, but will likely stay in the 12-15 foot range heading into the middle of next week.

15

HYDROLOGY

The potential for flooding continues on the Skokomish River with periods of heavy rainfall Friday through the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect.

River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area in the next 7 days at this time.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to noon PST Friday for San Juan County.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon PST Friday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Island County-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area- Southern Hood Canal.

Flood Watch from 4 AM PST Friday through late Saturday night for Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.

High Surf Advisory from noon Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM PST Friday for Grays Harbor County Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday for Admiralty Inlet.

Gale Warning until 7 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.