textproduct: Seattle/Tacoma

SYNOPSIS

A cold front remains stalled offshore today with mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Much like yesterday, a front remains stalled offshore with a very mild air mass in place across the region. Clouds will stream across the area throughout the day ahead with periods of light rainfall skirting the coast and Olympic Peninsula as the interior remains mostly dry. Models remain largely unchanged with the overall pattern heading into the conclusion of the week. A vertically stacked system moving into the offshore waters tonight and early Friday will push an occluded front onshore during the day on Friday with another shot of rain and breezy to windy conditions...especially coast and near east/west gaps in terrain. High tides and lower pressure may lead to minor coastal flooding Friday morning. The main area is the shoreline and beaches around the Salish Sea during the time of high tide. While precip with this system doesn't look particularly heavy, it should be sufficient to push the Skokomish River back above flood stage.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A stronger system remains on track to arrive later Saturday into Saturday night. More widespread windy conditions are expected with this system...strongest along the coast where NBM probabilities of 50 mph gusts are 50-70 percent. QPF is also heavier with storm total rainfall estimates between between Saturday midday and Sunday afternoon of 1.5 to 2 inches along the coast and upwards of 3 to 4 inches in the Olympics.

Showery conditions continue Sunday night into Monday before tapering off. Forecast confidence begins to decrease Tuesday and beyond as both deterministic and ensembles start to diverge with some solutions now suggesting that a system around the middle of next week will cut off and head south of the area. One portion of the forecast that retains at least some confidence is a downward trend in temperatures to nearer seasonal norms next week.

27

AVIATION

A stalled frontal boundary will remain offshore today as showers continue west of the Olympics for terminals such as KHQM and KUIL. As a result, IFR conditions will be met throughout the remainder of the morning with MVFR cigs possible for KCLM as well. Mid-high level cloud coverage will keep mostly VFR in place for inland terminals but KOLM and KPWT may have to contend with fog and low clouds throughout the remainder of the morning until conditions improve around 18-20z. VFR area wide including the coastal areas towards the afternoon but steadier widespread rain will return late overnight into Friday morning with a return of low ceilings.

KSEA...VFR likely to persist through the upcoming TAF period as high clouds stream overhead. Low chance (5%) of vicinity fog in the morning near the Duwamish River/east of the terminal this morning. Winds mainly out of the SE 5 kt or less.

41

MARINE

A frontal boundary remains stalled offshore today as winds begin to pick up this afternoon across marine waters. A pair of strong low pressure systems will later move across the coastal waters later tonight into Friday, with the second moving through Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, the inherited Gale Watch across the coastal waters have been upgraded to a warning and a new SCA has been issued for the East Strait, starting later this morning and lasting into early Friday morning. Additional SCAs may be needed elsewhere. Seas will remain around 12 to 15 ft today before increasing above 20 ft Friday night with a 25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through Saturday morning. An active pattern may remain into early next week as the parade of storms continue.

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HYDROLOGY

The Skokomish River fell below flood stage overnight. The river will remain elevated into Friday then rise back above flood stage later Friday into the weekend with another round of heavy rain over the Olympics.

River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area in the next 7 days at this time. Felton/27

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Friday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.