textproduct: Seattle/Tacoma

SYNOPSIS

Mild day today with a warm front to the north and a cold front still offshore. Cold front moving through tonight bringing rain and windy conditions to most of the area along with high surf to the beaches. Post frontal showers ending Sunday. Another wet and windy system moving into the area Monday night but not nearly as strong as the system tonight. Atmospheric river settling up over Western Washington Tuesday will lift north Tuesday night. Cold front stalling near the coast Wednesday and Thursday moving through Thursday night. Another system will arrive Friday.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Western Washington remaining in the warm sector today with a warm front to the north and a cold front still offshore late this afternoon. Rain developing along the coast this afternoon with the rain not making it as far east as the Puget Sound by late afternoon. Highs near 60.

Cold front reaching the coast this evening. The front will move through the Puget Sound area around midnight and will be into the Cascades by early Sunday morning. This front has some punch to it. Model 925 mb winds just ahead, with and just behind the front in the 55 to 65 knot range along the coast and in the 35 to 50 knot range over the interior from the Puget Sound northward. Some of these winds will mix down to the surface. Have upgraded the high wind watch on the beaches to a high wind warning beginning late this afternoon with southerly wind gusts has high as 60 mph. Have added wind advisories for the interior coast zones, along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet, and over the interior near the Puget Sound from Seattle Northward including the San Juan Islands for southerly wind gusts 45 to 50 mph tonight into early Sunday morning. Strongest winds will be with the frontal passage this evening along the coast and around midnight for the interior. Our benign October weather left plenty of leaves on the trees increasing the chances for impacts with borderline advisory wind speeds.

In addition to the winds, seas will rise rapidly into the 22 to 26 foot range along the ocean beaches tonight. A high surf warning has replaced the high surf advisory with the warning beginning at 10 pm. Seas will be well above 10 feet by low tide late this afternoon at Mocrocks beach. This along with strong winds will make for dangerous conditions for the clam dig.

Weather calming down Sunday, although breezy conditions will still be present in the morning. Post frontal shower activity will be minimal with most of the activity over with by noon. Highs in the mid 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Seas remaining elevated in the 22 to 26 foot range.

Break in the weather continuing Sunday night with the next system near 135W by 12Z Monday. The front is showing signs of becoming negatively tilted with the parent low moving north along 142W near 55W early in the morning. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Seas easing overnight. The high surf warning will come to an end at 10 pm Sunday evening.

Front moving east Monday but still offshore by late Monday afternoon. Rain reaching the coast in the afternoon with a chance of rain inland by late afternoon. Parent surface low way up in the Gulf of Alaska. Model 925 mb winds 30 to 40 knots along the coast with the front and weaker inland. This system will not produce winds like the system tonight. Felton

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Models in good agreement with the front moving through Monday night and another front right on its heels for Tuesday. Atmospheric river setting up Tuesday night with the bulk of the moisture aimed at Vancouver Island. Warm front hanging over Western Washington. Model solutions becoming inconsistent Wednesday as an upper level trough digs south offshore. This will push the warm front north into British Columbia. Solutions for the trailing cold front range from stalling along the coast to stalling back near 130W Wednesday. Inconsistencies continue Thursday with solutions split between what is left of the front moving through to the front remaining stalled off the coast. There is better agreement Friday with another system moving across the Pacific into the area. In general chance pops for Wednesday and Thursday with rain along the coast and rain likely inland Friday.

Mild temperatures through the period. Highs near 60 Tuesday and Thursday, lower to mid 60s Wednesday, then back down to the mid 50s with the rain Friday. Highs Wednesday will be close to records in some locations. Record high for Seattle is 65 set in 1990. Current forecast high is 64. Felton

AVIATION

West to southwest flow aloft will increase this morning and become strong this afternoon and evening as a vigorous frontal system moves onshore into the region. Plentiful low level moisture and light surface winds have resulted in a mixed bag of ceilings this morning from LIFR to MVFR for most areas along with areas of surface visibility below 3 statute miles. The low ceilings and reduced visibility are expected to scour out for most areas by 18Z-20Z as low level east to southeasterly flow begins to increase ahead of the incoming system. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate back to MVFR in increasing rain along the coast after 00Z. Rain will spread to most of the interior by 06Z with ceilings near or just above 3000 feet. Strong southerly surface winds with gusts 35 to 45 knots will develop along the coast late this afternoon/evening with strong winds spreading to interior areas this evening and overnight.

KSEA...VFR ceilings persist at the terminal this morning, with lower clouds within the vicinity not expected to push into the terminal. Gusty surface winds will develop by late this afternoon and increase through the evening. Rain is expected to arrive between 04-06Z with ceilings lowering to near or just above 3000 feet. Surface winds light E/SE this morning will rise to 8 to 12 knots this afternoon then quickly increase to southerly 15 to 25 knots gusting to 30 to 35 knots this evening and persisting overnight before gradually easing Sunday morning. Low level wind shear is expected just ahead of and with the front this evening with 2000 foot winds becoming southerly at 45 to 50 knots.

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MARINE

An active weather pattern will continue into next week as a series of frontal systems impact area waters. A vigorous frontal system associated with 970 millibar surface low curling northeastward offshore tonight is expected to produce a period of storm force wind gusts over the coastal waters later today into tonight with gales across the remainder of the waters tonight. Seas will build to 21 to 28 feet late tonight into Sunday before gradually subsiding Sunday night into Monday. Weak high pressure will briefly build over the waters on Monday before another deepening surface low moving toward Haida Gwaii pushes a front across the waters Monday night into Tuesday.

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HYDROLOGY

River flooding is not expected through the next seven days. Multiple weather systems moving through the area in the next week. While current precipitation forecasts are not expected to cause flooding, this will saturate soils and raise base flows that could bring a concern with storm systems by late next week.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastside-Island County-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.

High Surf Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet.

Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.