textproduct: Seattle/Tacoma

SYNOPSIS

Cooler and calmer conditions will resume across western Washington through the remainder of the week as onshore flow returns. A low pressure system will move into the region Saturday, bringing widespread rain and breezy winds. Conditions are favored to dry out early next week.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A broad upper level trough will swing a cold front across western Washington on Saturday, bringing in cooler temperatures, widespread rain, and breezy conditions. Rain is favored to continue over higher terrain on Sunday with cloudy skies over the lowlands. Ensembles have trended slightly drier with this storm system, with preliminary rainfall totals of a third of an inch over the lowlands and up to 2 to 3 inches of liquid over the mountains. The bulk of the moisture with this system is on track to fall over the northwestern Olympic Peninsula.

Forecast models begin to show a larger spread in solutions starting next week, with operational models showing drying and warming on Monday and Tuesday whereas ensembles show potential for unsettled conditions to continue across western Washington. For now, a chance of rain has been maintained through the extended forecast with continued cooler temperatures.

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AVIATION

MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog along the coast with mostly VFR conditions inland. Marine stratus will continue to filter inland this morning, likely reaching KOLM and KPWT. Terminals east of the Puget Sound are favored to remain VFR through the morning. Conditions will improve inland by the late morning, with brief improvement to MVFR or VFR along the coast in the mid to late afternoon before another round of marine stratus redevelops and pushes inland early Thursday morning.

KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning with a low (10% to 15%) chance of MVFR to IFR low stratus developing over the terminal. Southerly winds generally 4 to 7 kt will continue through the early afternoon, switching to northerly around 21z-23z this afternoon and increasing to 7 to 11 kt. Winds will shift more northeasterly this evening and will stay predominantly northerly through Thursday. Forecast models show a higher chance (40% to 45%) of MVFR low stratus developing over the terminal early Thursday morning.

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MARINE

Surface high pressure will build over area waters through Friday with lower pressure inland. This will result in a westerly push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and evening, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Small Craft northwesterlies will also start over the coastal waters later today into Thursday. Onshore flow will continue into the weekend as a low pressure system moves over the region. High pressure will resume early next week with continued onshore flow.

Combined seas 5 to 6 feet will continue to build to 8 to 10 feet later today, remaining elevated through Thursday. Seas will be steep with a dominant period of 10 to 11 seconds. Seas will subside to 5 to 8 feet over the weekend, and are favored to stay below 10 feet into next week.

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SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.