textproduct: Seattle/Tacoma

SYNOPSIS

Short break in the weather this morning. Next system moving through Western Washington tonight. Warm front quickly following Tuesday bringing more rain and wind to the area. Warm front lifting north Tuesday night into Wednesday. Trailing cold front stalled offshore Wednesday putting Western Washington in the warm sector with possible record high temperatures. Cold front dissipating as it moves inland Thursday. Next system reaching the area Friday will stall over Western Washington into Saturday. System moving east Saturday night with an upper level trough Sunday.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies this morning. Patchy fog over the Southwest Interior with local visibilities 3 to 5 miles. Temperatures at 2 am/10z were in the lower to mid 40s.

Short break in the action this morning with the next system to reach the area still west of 130W. Front will still be offshore by late afternoon. Rain out ahead of the front reaching the coast by noon with rain spreading over the interior in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s.

Front moving through the area this evening with rain coming to an end by midnight. Brief increase in the winds with the front but winds will not be strong enough for any advisories to be issued. Lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Fast moving warm front right on the heels of the Monday evening system with rain spreading back over the area Tuesday morning. Winds increasing as the front approaches. There is a good chance wind advisories will be needed for the coast and Northwest Interior. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Warm front lifting north Tuesday night with the front north of the border Wednesday. Advisory strength winds still likely along the coast and over the Northwest Interior at least through Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday. Trailing cold front stalled offshore as an upper level trough digs south behind the cold front. Rain chances confined to the coast and Northwest Interior by Wednesday morning. Western Washington in the warm sector Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Record highs are possible. The forecast high for Seattle of 65 degrees would tie the record set in 1990. Felton

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Extended models have been in good agreement with the warm front to the north Wednesday night and the cold front dissipating as it tries to move inland Thursday.

Atmospheric river taking aim at Western Washington Friday with the river stalling over the area Friday night into Saturday. Upper level trough kicking the river east Saturday night. Upper level trough over Western Washington Sunday keeping showers in the forecast. Snow levels dropping as low as 4000 feet Sunday. Felton

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail at most area terminals this morning, through locations across southwest WA are seeing localized fog, bringing MVFR to IFR visibilities at times. Elsewhere, the thick higher level cloud deck should help to limit radiational fog development.

Ceilings will start to lower to MVFR along the coast this afternoon and across the interior this evening as a frontal system brings a round of rain across the area. Rain will likely be heavy enough such that limitations in visibility to 3-5 mi are to be expected. Ceilings may raise back to low-end VFR behind the frontal passage overnight tonight, but periods of lower ceilings cannot be ruled out. More likely and widespread MVFR cigs are expected with the next round of widespread rain Tuesday morning.

Winds calm to lightly offshore early this morning will start to increase along the coast this morning, with southeasterly winds increasing across the rest of the area after this morning. Winds will peak this evening between 00-06Z with gusts up to 20-25 kt in this period. Winds will further increase later after 12Z Tue.

KSEA...VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. MVFR conditions develop after around 00Z as rain begins to move through the terminal. Limitations in visibility in the heavier band of rain will be followed by lowering ceilings. Conditions may temporarily rise back to MVFR after around 06Z. High confidence in additional MVFR conditions after 15Z Tue with another round of rain. Light southeast winds this morning will begin to increase this afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kt after 00Z. Winds shift to southwesterly and ease overnight into early Tuesday.

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MARINE

Winds will begin to increase across the coastal waters through the morning as the first of a series of frontal systems work their way across the coastal waters. Winds will peak over the coastal waters this afternoon and into the early evening over the interior Salish Sea with high confidence (70-near 100%) in wind gusts reaching gale force over the coastal waters and the East Entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The southeasterlies earlier in the evening will favor Small Craft conditions through Admiralty Inlet and into the Northern Inland Waters, then following the frontal passage late this evening, winds will turn southwesterly and ease briefly over the coastal waters, but remain elevated over Puget Sound and Hood Canal, which will have an advisory through early Tuesday morning.

The next system will be right on its tail with winds once again increasing over the coastal waters early Tuesday morning. Winds will persist through much of Tuesday and Wednesday as the associated front stalls offshore before weakening Wednesday night. This will allow for an extended period of gale force winds over the coastal waters and also over the northern Salish Sea waters through and north of Admiralty Inlet through Wednesday night.

Winds look to ease in the lull between systems on Thursday before the next strong low pressure system approaches the waters Thursday night. Models are showing a 60-80% chance of storm force gusts over the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday with gale force winds likely over the remaining coastal waters. Winds look to peak during the day Friday but remain elevated through much of the weekend with additional systems moving through.

Seas are continuing to slowly ease this morning and should lower to around 10-12 ft today and tonight before increasing late tonight up to 17-19 ft on Tuesday. Seas remain there through much of Wednesday before beginning to ease Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas then look to rise significantly Friday into the weekend with high confidence (>60-70%) in waves exceeding 20 ft Friday night into Saturday. The ECWMF ensemble 50th percentile significant wave height forecast by Saturday morning is around 25 ft with the 75th percentile reaching near 30 ft.

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HYDROLOGY

River flooding is not expected through Thursday. Atmospheric river hanging up over the Olympics Friday into Saturday. Current rainfall forecast for the South Slopes of the Olympics in the 3 to 4.5 inch range. Snow levels are not exceeding high, 5000 to 6500 feet, but add in the additional rainfall leading up to the event this amount of rain will bring a flooding threat to the Skokomish River at the end of the week.

River flooding not expected on the remainder of the rivers in the area Friday through Sunday. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Tuesday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.