textproduct: Seattle/Tacoma

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather for the next week with upper level ridge centered offshore. Varying degrees of low level onshore flow through the period. Low level flow becoming light northerly on the warmer days. Ridge building and drifting closer to the area the first part of next week for a small warming trend.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The forecast this morning remains on track (with minor updates to the aviation section). -HPR/VMT

Satellite imagery shows stratus along the coast, over the Northwest Interior and down the Cascade foothills to about I-90. Low level onshore flow bringing marine air into the interior with temperatures at 3 am/10z in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level ridge centered well offshore with northwesterly flow aloft over Western Washington the next couple of days. Low level onshore flow will weaken later today into tonight with northerly flow in the lower levels Thursday. Stratus over the area this morning will dissipate by 10 am/17z leaving sunny skies for the remainder of the day. Less stratus Thursday morning with the low level northerly flow. Highs today in the mid and upper 60s along the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. A little warmer Thursday with highs near 70 coast and 70s to lower 80s inland. Increasing northerly winds Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A little bit of troughiness developing offshore Thursday night into Friday switching the flow aloft to west southwesterly. This will send some high clouds our way but that is about it. Light flow continuing in the lower levels. Highs Friday near 70 along the coast and 70s to mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Upper level ridge remaining offshore through the weekend with varying degrees of low level onshore flow ( increasing onshore flow Saturday weakening Sunday ). Offshore ridge building and moving closer to the area the first part of next week for a couple of warmer days. Highs Saturday in the mid to upper 60s coast and 70s inland, Sunday near 70 coast and 70s to mid 80s inland. A little warmer Monday and Tuesday with the coast in the lower to mid 70s and the warmer locations over the interior getting close to 90 degrees. No rain in sight the next 7 days.

With the continuation of the above normal temperatures Seattle looking at a possible top 10 and maybe a top 5 warmest June if the trends continue. The first half of the month was the 10th warmest in Seattle and above normal temperatures will continue for the next week at least. Felton

AVIATION

Mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings continue across the south interior into south Puget Sound, as well as the coast. Satellite has the stratus tracking north into Seattle with the south winds. As winds turn to the west and the north from 18Z to 22Z this afternoon, the ceilings will start to scatter for VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds speeds will generally range 5-10 kt by this afternoon, with a low chance of a gust to 18 kt in Puget Sound. The coast has a 50% chance of MVFR ceilings Thursday morning, but the probabilities remain low for the remainder of the interior. Winds to remain out of the north/northwest Thursday as north flow aloft continues to mix down to the surface.

KSEA...An MVFR stratus deck pushed into the terminal this morning from the south. It will likely remain around through as late as 21Z until winds shift to the west/northwest during the afternoon. VFR likely the remainder of the TAF period once the stratus clears. Afternoon winds to range around 5-10 kt with a low chance of a gust to 18 kt. MVFR ceiling likelihood remains low Thursday morning at 10-20%

HPR/VMT

MARINE

Broad high pressure over the NE Pacific will keep weak high pressure over Washington's waters. High pressure over the waters will then begin to weaken late Thursday as a low pressure system slowly moves across British Columbia through Saturday. As the low pressure system pushes to the east, broad high pressure over the NE will begin to build east into area waters and will strengthen into early next week.

Elevated northwesterly winds and seas are expected across the coastal waters throughout the week. Guidance suggests a 70% chance or higher of 21 kt winds across the coastal waters, especially the outer coastal waters. Westerly pushes are expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend. However, at this time winds look to remain below small craft thresholds, as the latest probabilities are around 20-35%.

FIRE WEATHER

The return of low level onshore flow has eased fire weather concerns for the next couple of days. Elevated fire weather concerns return Friday and the first part of next week with a few warmer and drier days. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop to around 30 percent Friday and during the first part of next week. Breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening hours combined with the lower relative humidity values could be problematic especially with the fuels continuing to dry out in the next week. Felton

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.