textproduct: Blacksburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation update. No major changes to the forecast into next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather into Sunday.

2) Thunderstorm chances ramp up Monday, but mid to late next week looks more widely scattered for storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Tranquil weather this weekend.

The weekend overall looks dry. There will be some mid and high clouds today, with scattered cumulus in the afternoon. A weaker front approaches from the northwest Saturday evening, and some of the higher res models show spotty showers poppin in the mountains but appears very limited, so kept pops mainly 15 percent or less, except 20ish over Greenbrier.

Low pressure moves along the front Sunday and still looks like our area will be on the dry side of things.

Temperatures today will be seasonably warm with lower dewpoints and northwest breeze. Temps warm up Sunday to more typical June standards, with 90s in the Piedmont.

FYI... The summer solstice is Sunday June 21 at 424 AM EDT.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong storms possible Monday, the widely scattered convection for the rest of the week, and dry for most.

A broad cyclonic flow from the southern Plains to the Mid- Atlantic will exits Monday. Within this zone, several embedded mid- level shortwave troughs are expected, the strongest of which will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic during the day Monday. A weak surface low will likely be associated with this lead shortwave trough. A frontal zone will extend between these 2 features and act as the primary focus for storm development through the period on Monday.

A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening.

Afterwards, a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern will be in place across the country.A lingering frontal boundary draped across the Mid-South to the central Plains, coupled with some shortwave energy aloft, will fuel the development of multiple thunderstorm complexes buy most of this falls south of our area. Still at times, we will see widely scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms.

Temps through the period will be close to late June standards.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to persist for much of the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the west/northwest for most through today with gusts increasing after 15 UTC at some terminals into the 15-20 knot range. Winds subside by 00z/21.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected into late Sunday. Shower and storm chances increase on Monday, with associated sub-VFR conditions probable as this activity passes over airports. Still some scattered storm activity Tuesday and Wednesday but mainly VFR outside any storms.

Other sub-VFR possibilities may be some late night/early morning mountain valley/river fog Sunday morning and again middle of next week.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.