textproduct: Blacksburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably mild through the week with a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

2) Weekend Reset: Cooler, seasonable air returns this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through the week with a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon into Friday. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast turns the flow toward the southeast to south today providing warmer temperatures. As a front approaches Wednesday the flow turns south to southwest so expecting increasing clouds/dewpoints. Will see showers pushing into the mountains by late afternoon. Some instability reaches the far southwest VA counties, so not out of the question for some thunderstorms heading into Wednesday evening. PoPs ramp up along/ahead of the front Wednesday night, then get somewhat of a lull Thursday before another wave of low pressure pushes across Thu night into Friday keeping higher pops in the Piedmont.

As for rain chances, Low pressure will move through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Region by Thursday, with the accompanying surface front bringing a chance of rain showers to the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Models have continued to back off on precipitation coverage, QPF trending lower. From what we are seeing, the best chance for showers will be along and west of the Blue Ridge (amounts 0.25 to 0.50), moisture along the front thinning as it crosses the mountains and leaving areas east of the Blue Ridge with less than a quarter of an inch of wetting. Overall rainfall amounts Wed afternoon- Friday will average a third of an inch to three-quarters of an inch, with highest amounts in the Piedmont which need it due to the drought.

May see some lingering upslope showers along the western slopes through Saturday given persistent NW flow. Otherwise, quiet weather once again returns through the remainder of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Weekend Reset: Cooler, seasonable air returns this weekend.

Thursday's frontal passage will begin transition to lower temperatures for the weekend, readings closer to normal for Saturday and Sunday.

Models are advertising a clipper-like system to barrel through the region late Sunday or Monday...this feature originating from the northern stream and cooler northern latitudes. Depending on its track it may draw down temperatures even further for Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a few days of cooler than normal weather, a taste of what November should be like... cool and crisp.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High clouds will be the only clouds expect today and VFR through the majority of the period. Some indications for fog at both LYH/LWB late tonight so for now have MVFR in the 10-12z time frame. Give dry conditions not seeing it but the east wind may advect some river fog toward LWB, so there is potential for lower vsbys here.

Confidence in the above forecast is high, except for the fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Quiet weather and VFR flight conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon. A frontal boundary moves into the area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall and likely sub-VFR flight conditions. Rain chances linger behind the front on Friday, keeping a chance of sub-VFR conditions around before clearing back out for the weekend.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.