textproduct: Blacksburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Sunday continues to trend warmer ahead of an approaching frontal system on Monday.

A series of fronts to impact the region through next week. Each front featuring a warming trend ahead of it, then a subsequent cool down behind the front. Rain possible with each frontal passage.

There is an increased fire potential for Monday for areas that do not receive rain Sunday night and Monday morning. Gusty post- frontal winds, RH values dropping to 15 to 25%, and warm temperatures may increase the fire danger, specifically for the Piedmont of VA and NC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record warmth on Sunday.

2) The next chances of showers should come during Sunday night into Monday morning and also later in the week. Increasing fire potential Monday afternoon for the Piedmont.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record warmth on Sunday.

Flow will increase from the southwest through Sunday as a weak upper wave moving across the northern states eventually amplifies by early Monday. This will result in a weak surface low tracking into New England and a resultant frontal boundary draped from Pennsylvania to Missouri that will begin to drop south towards our area. Strong southwest flow warm air advection and compressional warming will occur ahead of the front. This will result in well above normal temperatures for Sunday...with the potential of reaching or breaking records at a few locations. Mid 80s possible east of the mountains with widespread upper 70s to lower 80s for the mountains.

Station Record Hi Max Forecast MaxT Roanoke 84 in 1938 86 Lynchburg 90 in 1907 85 Danville 88 in 1968 87 Bluefield 81 in 2012 76 Blacksburg 85 in 1907 80

KEY MESSAGE 2: The next chances of showers should come during Sunday night into Monday and also later in the week. Increasing fire potential Monday for the Piedmont.

A cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest Sunday night, crossing the mountains around sunrise before pushing into North Carolina by late Monday morning. The front will be interacting with a relatively dry airmass and winds are expected to shift westerly very quickly. This transition will likely trigger scattered showers across the western mountains during the morning hours, though these will fade as the system nears the Blue Ridge, leaving areas to the east with little to no measurable rain. This lack of precipitation in the Piedmont, combined with downsloping winds and breezy, gusty conditions, will keep fuel moisture levels low and lead to high fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon.

The previously forecast Wednesday front has been removed from the outlook, with models now centering on a weak shortwave moving across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Guidance remains consistent regarding a stronger cold front on Friday, though recent runs suggest it will arrive from the north within a zonal flow. This shift in trajectory is expected to result in a slow-moving boundary that may stall over the region Friday into Friday night before finally clearing into North Carolina on Saturday. Rainfall totals with both the early-week and late-week systems are currently projected to remain light, generally between a tenth and two-tenths of an inch.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR expected for the 24hr TAF period. Mainly seeing some high deck cirrus above 10kft this afternoon. Should see it clear overnight leading to clear skies. Perhaps some afternoon CU along the southern Blue Ridge in Virginia and NW North Carolina.

Winds increase on Sunday from the southwest. Gusts will increase and become more frequent by midday, with some gusts potentially exceeding 20kts at the higher elevations.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal system will drop in from the north Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance for rain and sub-VFR conditions mainly to the mountains. Expect gusty NW winds Monday behind the front, with gusts between 20-30 kts throughout the area. Drier weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing fire potential Monday for the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina...

As a cold front exits the region Sunday evening, gusty northwest winds will arrive. In general, gusts up to 35 mph are possible for Sunday night and Monday along the higher elevations. Fire weather concerns may arise by Monday afternoon if the downsloping wind coincides with dry fuels that do not receive precipitation with the front Sunday night into Monday morning. The wind should decrease by Monday night as high pressure returns. We are currently outlooked by SPC for fire danger on Monday with a 40% critical probability outline over the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.