textproduct: Blacksburg

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will allow for dry conditions through tonight, with increasing clouds this evening. The next weather system nears from the west on Tuesday, bringing chances of rain through Wednesday. A more potent front moves through the region on Wednesday and a much colder airmass is expected for Thanksgiving and beyond.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1230 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Pleasant weather today with increasing clouds this evening and tonight.

2) Rain chances increase Tuesday with gusty winds across the ridges.

Upper trough will swing through the Plains this evening and into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. High pressure providing sunny skies and dry conditions will slide east into the Atlantic tonight. Warm air advection will increase through the overnight in advance of an approaching frontal boundary associated with the upper wave progged to move north of the region. In response, will see increase cloud cover and eventually some showers/drizzle developing along the Blue Ridge late tonight into early Tuesday.

Better chance for rain comes late morning and into the afternoon/evening as the front moves closer to the region, but overall rainfall amounts still appear to be light, around 0.25 inches or less.

Increasing southerly jet will result in gusty winds along the ridges, especially on the downslope side of the western slopes. Some gusts into the 20mph range, perhaps around 30mph at times for areas from Burkes Garden to Bluefield and along the I77 corridor in West Virginia.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 1235 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible Tuesday night, with highest coverage across the Piedmont.

2) A strong cold front will arrive Wednesday evening, bringing a sharp cooldown for Thanksgiving day.

Little change in the previous forecast thinking for Tuesday night as a disturbance makes its way across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Some forecast data continues to suggest the disturbance will trigger a band of rain across the Piedmont before dawn on Wednesday, with this band having the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms and brief downpours. Given the recent dry conditions however, flooding is not anticipated with this activity. As the disturbance moves away Wednesday morning, it will leave only occasional shower activity in its wake, with continued unseasonably warm temperatures through the afternoon. During early Wednesday evening, a strong cold front will push quickly across the lower Mid-Atlantic, bringing with it significantly cooler and drier air that will linger through the remainder of the period. Still signals in the latest weather data indicating a brief period of snow across western Greenbrier County during late Wednesday evening as temperatures drop to freezing, however moisture is not forecast to remain long enough for any snow accumulations.

High pressure building in behind the cold front will bring mostly clear skies and breezy west winds for Thanksgiving, with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for late November.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1245 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Cool and dry weather on Friday will give way to wet weather on Sunday with seasonable temperatures.

2) A brief period of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain is possible on Saturday night.

The weekend will start off with continued chilly temperatures as high pressure passes from the central Mississippi River Valley early Friday to the Atlantic coast on Saturday evening. Friday afternoon highs will struggle to reach freezing across portions of the mountains, with temperatures overall holding 15-20 degrees below normal. Temperatures for Saturday will trend warmer however as winds shift more from the south.

Heading into Saturday night, cloud cover will increase as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. Given lingering cold air across the Mid-Atlantic, there is a chance that precipitation moving into our area will start as a brief period of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain, before temperatures warm enough to change precipitation over to rain. Periods of rain will then linger through the day on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west.

Extended Aviation Outlook

Rain and sub-VFR conditions continue through Tuesday night and into Wednesday to all TAF sites. A strong front will increase winds Wednesday night and into Thursday. Some low-level wind shear will be possible. VFR conditions return Thursday and Friday.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.