textproduct: Blacksburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Light wintry precipitation tonight and again tomorrow night. No headlines to be issued during this update.

Slight increase in snow amounts, but still below Advisory criteria.

Potential for reaching Wind Advisory criteria Friday night into Saturday in the wake of an Arctic front, along with snow accumulations for the mountains.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light wintry precipitation possible tonight through Thursday morning.

2) Arctic front to bring light snow accumulations to the mountains Friday afternoon/night.

3) Strong northwest winds could gust over 45 mph in the mountains Friday night into Saturday morning.

4) Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for the mountains of WV Saturday morning.

5) Mainly dry the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light wintry precipitation possible tonight through Thursday morning.

Another system will impact the lower Mid-Atlantic starting this evening, with a potential to continue through Thursday morning. This should be less impactful than the past two system, with much light amounts of precipitation forecast.

A weak surface low pressure system will track east along a stationary boundary from the middle Mississippi Valley today across Tennessee tonight. A warm front draped across Virginia has allowed for enough southerly flow for temperatures to rise into the mid 30s and lower 40s. Precipitation will gradually increase from the west through this evening and overnight. With temperatures not expecting to decrease much overnight, this should prevent widespread wintry precipitation with this first round tonight...mostly rain with the exception being the higher elevations from the New River Valley northward into the Alleghenies and Greenbrier Valley. Temperatures borderline, any accumulations will be light.

A lull in the activity comes for most on Wednesday after the first batch of precipitation moves out. Recent hi-res guidance has been giving better confidence of a secondary area of low pressure developing over the Carolinas by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This would result in redevelopment of precipitation over our region, with the predominate p-type as snow as colder air is drawn south as the low develops. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on this evolution and subsequent amounts, which will vary widely based on the strength of the developing low. As of now, light snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 are possible from the New River Valley northward. A coating to an inch possible east of the mountains. North Carolina should stay mostly rain or rain/snow mix. Stay closely tuned as model guidance continues to adjust.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Expect an arctic front to traverse the area Friday and bring a quick hitting swath of light snow to the mountains and even perhaps the Piedmont. Speed of movement dictates limited amounts but strength of shortwave and cold advection lend to watching for potential snow squalls behind the front early Friday evening in the WV mountains. Total accumulations forecasted will range from an inch or less along/west of the Blue Ridge, increasing to several inches in western Greenbrier county due to extended upslope also behind the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Low level winds of 35 to 50kts will follow the front Friday night and forecast sounding point to mixing of 35 to 50 mph possible along and west of the Blue Ridge, coupled with 6 hr pressure rises of 5 to 10 mb should lead to a solid wind advisory. This is a quick hitter, so strongest gusts would be right behind the front Friday evening into the overnight, decreasing Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 4... With the cold air and winds, wind chills are likely to tank in the sub-zero range across the WV mountains and overall looks mainly like western Greenbrier county is solidly reaching cold weather advisory criteria as of now.

KEY MESSAGE 5... Overall models/ensembles paint a drier forecast to close out the weekend into early next week, though another shortwave may bring light snow showers to the mountains of WV Sunday. Temperatures gradually moderate but still running 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Ensembles/models are showing a shortwave ridge building across by Tuesday with temperatures moderating to around normal. We shall see, but long range teleconnections (PNA, AO, NAO) forecasts also point to a pattern change after Valentine's Day.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are being observed at all Piedmont terminals to include LYH, DAN, and ROA this evening. All terminals west of the Blue Ridge to include BCB, BLF, and LWB have fallen to MVFR restrictions due to low CIGs this evening. These restrictions are only expected to get worse as IFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs develop overnight. All terminals look to crash to these restrictions prior to 12 UTC Wednesday. A mix of rain and snow looks to persist at all terminals through the overnight hours before a brief reprieve is expected after 12 UTC Wednesday. Light snow showers look to fill in again by the 16-20 UTC timeframe for all terminals, and are forecast to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will generally remain light at around 0-5 knots out of the north/northeast through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A series of disturbances will continue to track east through Friday bringing widespread sub- VFR and light precipitation to the region.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.