textproduct: Blacksburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated.

Still looking like Monday-Tuesday are our wettest days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Meandering frontal boundary will provide opportunity for needed rain early next week. A cooldown by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Meandering frontal boundary will provide opportunity for needed rain early next week. A cooldown by Wednesday.

Surface front to our south with high pressure wedging in from the north will provide a little more cloud cover today and cooler temperatures. A few showers this morning will skirt the Blue Ridge, but main chances of showers/few storms look to stay west and south of us closer to the front. Temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s in the Shenandoah Valley south into the southern Blue Ridge including Lynchburg/Roanoke where cloud cover may linger most of the day. Warmer temperatures in the lower 80s are expected in southside VA and the NC Piedmont, and also across the Clinch and Holston River Valleys.

By Sunday the flow turns quickly with warm air advection advancing across the TN/OH valleys. This will push the front back to the north as a warm front, only to clash with another southward moving upper level trough Monday and Tuesday, temperatures trending cooler again for mid week. A wholesale uptick in rain chances area expected for both Monday and Tuesday with widespread QPF of one inch or more possible during this time frame. 48 hour probabilistic ensemble guidance indicates 80 percent chance for 0.50, 50% chance of 1.00 and 25% chance of 1.50 or more. This is good news. For most, this will be much needed rain.

By Wednesday upper trough digs in from the northwest while the front shifts southeast. Cooler air from the north with high pressure wedge will have our highs Wednesday running 10 to 20 degrees below normal, with mid 50s to mid 60s for most.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Stratus and fog will increase overnight as northeast flow increases. Expect sub-VFR at all sites by 09z, with LIFR conditions in the mountains at time. Cannot rule out a shower near ROA/LYH, but overall dry through the taf period. A gradual improvement to MVFR to VFR occurs in the 13-17z time frame. Cigs sink again in the mountains below VFR Saturday evening. Rain chances today will be limited with best chances south of an VJI-MWK line.

Forecast confidence is high on sub-VFR this morning, the moderate on improving to VFR by 17z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower/storm chances increase Sunday into the middle of next week with Monday and Tuesday looking at the most coverage. During this time expect periods of sub-VFR conditions and potential heavy rain, with fog at night.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.