textproduct: Blacksburg

SYNOPSIS

Rain showers to continue this morning as a result of an passing system. A strong cold front moves across the region tonight, ushering in gusty winds and much colder air for Thanksgiving Day. Cooler and dry conditions remain in place through Saturday. Rain chances return again by Sunday as another low pressure system approaches the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 200 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers ending this morning, with skies clearing. Warmer, especially for the Piedmont.

2) Winds become gusty, with a Wind Advisory for the Southern Blue Ridge and the Greenbrier Valley beginning this evening.

3) Cold air settles in tonight, with lows below freezing for most.

Today, cyclonic flow continues as a closed low moves through the OH Valley. At the surface, dual cold fronts push through the region today. The first had generated precipitation and was moving east of the Blue Ridge this morning. Rain should end by morning for the Piedmont, and by mid morning for the extreme western mountains where upslope showers linger. Rainfall amounts were highest in the Greenbrier Valley in WV and also the southern Blue Ridge, with readings between a third of an inch to an inch. In between, most spots only saw between a tenth and a quarter inch of rain with this system.

While clouds gradually clear out for most, westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph today. The second cold front will introduce wind gusts in the 30 to 45+ mph range. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Greenbrier Valley and the southern Blue Ridge where winds may briefly exceed 46 mph.

Temperatures today will range from 50 to 60 degrees for the mountains, and the mid 60s to low 70s for the Piedmont. Tonight, westerly winds weaken as high pressure dominating central Canada and the Plains builds east. Continued gusty winds will keep temperatures warmer than otherwise, but still expect lows between 25 to 35F areawide.

Confidence is moderate in the near term forecast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 150 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and quiet weather through the period.

2) Cold temperatures for Thanksgiving into the weekend.

3) Strong winds bring very cold wind chills Friday morning.

Behind the front that passes through Wednesday night, high pressure begins to build in from the west, with cold air plunging south from Canada into our area. An upper trough will also remain across the Eastern CONUS for the late week, which will keep temperatures well below normal. On top of the much colder air for Thanksgiving, northwest winds will be very gusty due to a strong pressure gradient that stays in place through late Friday. A few stray upslope snow showers may be possible in WV, due to the strong winds and the upper trough, but confidence is very low. Winds on Thursday will be 10-20 mph, gusting to near 30 mph. The upper trough swings through Thursday night, increasing winds once again for the ridgetops, from the NW at 15-20 mph and gusts of 35-40+ mph expected.

Friday will see quiet conditions, though winds slowly reduce through the day as surface high pressure builds in and the upper trough shifts east and out of the area. By Friday night, wind gusts fall to under 20 mph. The high pressure remains centered over the Mid- Atlantic and slowly shifts east through Saturday, with southerly flow returning late in the day ahead of the next system.

Temperatures will be cold for Thanksgiving Day, with highs only in the 30s to around 40 along/west of the Blue Ridge. Piedmont locations will be warmer, but still only in the 40s to around 50. Strong winds will make it feel even colder, with wind chills in the 20s/30s throughout the day. The warmth from eating all of the Thanksgiving food will be much needed on this day. Friday will be even colder, with highs in the 20s to low 30s for the mountains, with low 40s for the Piedmont, so enjoy any leftovers. Saturday sees a small improvement, with 30s/40s area- wide. Overnight lows will be in the teens/20s Friday morning, as wind chills will fall into the single digits west of the Blue Ridge. The highest elevations could see wind chills below zero. Saturday morning is even colder, with area-wide teens to around 20 degrees. Wind chills will be less severe as winds reduce, only in the teens.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 150 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain chances return Sunday, brief snow showers in the mountains.

2) Temperatures remain below normal into next week.

Quiet weather continues for Saturday night, as high pressure remains in control but begins to shift offshore. A low pressure system over the Great Plains moves into the Great Lakes Region, again missing our area to the north, with the upper- level trough also lifting back north and allowing the heavier rain to fizzle out as it reaches us. Some light showers will still be possible over our area, with the best chances remaining west of the Blue Ridge. With cold air already in place, some brief snow showers may occur Sunday morning in the mountains and higher elevations. Rain chances continue through the day, with snow possible in the WV mountains into Sunday night. A high pressure system in the Great Plains briefly ridges into the area for Monday, though rain will remain possible due to a stalled front to our southeast. Models are beginning to hint at another low system forming along the southern jet stream and moving into the Carolinas on Tuesday, potentially bringing a chance of winter weather to the area, depending on the low track and amount of cold air present. Confidence remains low in this as it is a week out, but it will be monitored as the setup could be favorable for our area.

Temperatures remain below normal, with highs in the 40s/50s each day, with some 30s in the highest elevations. Lows will be in the 20s/30s.

Extended Aviation Outlook

Strong northwesterly winds continue tonight into Thursday, lingering into Friday before finally relaxing for the weekend. The strongest winds are expected this evening through through Thursday morning. High pressure will build into the region late today, keeping dry weather and VFR conditions in place through Saturday night. By Sunday, the next system arrives, which could bring sub-VFR conditions back to the area.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for VAZ015. NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002-018. WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for WVZ508.