textproduct: Blacksburg

SYNOPSIS

High pressure over the eastern United States will move offshore tonight. A large low pressure system tracking through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will bring a prolonged probability of precipitation to the region Friday night through Sunday. Monday is expected to by dry under weak high pressure.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Key message: - Tranquil weather today and tonight - Near to slightly above normal temperatures

Upper ridging over the eastern United States today will move offshore tonight. At the surface high pressure a well established wedge over the Appalachians remains in place. Bufkit forecast soundings and Hi-Res guidance have some breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon. Tonight isentropic lift and a more southeast direction of low level wind will increase the moisture and low clouds across the area. Stayed close to guidance for lows tonight. Will stay close to NBM for highs today and lows tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 430 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Wet weekend ahead

2) Mild temperatures for the end of the year

A meridionally extensive cold front attendant to a low in the Great Lakes region will cross over most of the eastern seaboard this weekend. This is set to bring widespread rain showers to the westernmost zones of our CWA by Friday night, and continually march eastward. A quick following secondary area of low pressure will move out of the southern plains and through the TN valley Saturday night. These back to back features will keep rain in the forecast effectively the entire weekend. Currently not looking at hydrology concerns, as we have been dry for a good chunk of time and high rain rates would be rare in this setup.

The frontal passage will see a pickup in winds, with gusts of 15-25 MPH possible. Temperatures will be in 40s and 50s, even the 60s by Sunday as southerly flow keeps us well above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 500 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Several shortwaves bring another week of potential precipitation

Once the weekend's rain and cold front pushes through, a series of westerly shortwaves bring repeated chances of precipitation for the forecast area. There will be a reprieve on Monday as a transient area of surface high pressure induces subsidence. The amount of rainfall is currently expected to not be particularly impressive given a downtrend in precipitable water and dew points for early next week.

Confidence in this forecast is average.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1245 AM EST Thursday...

Upper ridging over the eastern United States today will move offshore tonight. At the surface high pressure a well established wedge over the Appalachians remains in place. Bufkit forecast soundings and Hi-Res guidance have some breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon.

Tonight isentropic lift and a more southeast direction of low level wind will increase the moisture and ceilings will lower to MVFR cross across much of the area. TAFs have KROA, KLWB, and KBCB reaching MVFR between 06-08Z/1-3AM.

Across the Piedmont winds will be light northeast, while in the mountains light east to southeast.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mostly cloudy skies and light east winds continue through Friday, with the potential for sub VFR ceilings.

Widespread precipitation with IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities is expected from Friday night through Sunday.

Monday will be dry and flight conditions should improve.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.