textproduct: Blacksburg

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in today into Thursday. Another frontal system starts to arrive to close out the week with another chance of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 113 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) High pressure provides dry weather through tonight.

Frontal boundary still lingers over the southeast this morning with residual showers pushing into the Triad. Several high-res models are showing a few showers possible into late morning along/south of a South Boston to Reidsville line. At the surface, this boundary starts to track way today with high pressure working in which is going to keep the majority of the area dry with fair weather cumulus scattered around. Sunshine with lack of wind will bring temps above normal though humidity to stay below normal summer standards.

High pressure keeps us dry tonight with mostly clear skies, with seasonable lows in the mid to upper 50s mountains to lower to mid 60s piedmont.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and hot Thursday

2) Showers and storms return Friday and remain into Saturday

On Thursday we will be situated on the western edge of both a ridge and a zone of surface high pressure. This southerly flow will allow temperatures to soar Thursday afternoon, with the areas east of the Blue Ridge reaching into the upper 80s, and parts of Southside VA and the Piedmont going above 90.

On Friday a low will begin to eject from the southern MS River basin, moving north. Along with this, a warm front will be brought north through our forecast area, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will become largely stationary in the northern OH valley for Saturday. As waves of energy traverse the front west to east, this will provide enough forcing to form more showers and storms Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Showers/storms continue off and on into the first half of next week

A frontal boundary near the OH River Valley will wobble north and south as waves pass along it during this period. As the front becomes closer or further, the increased forcing will allow for increased or decreased shower and thunderstorm coverage accordingly. There will be ample moisture with above normal PWATs for mid-June. As we get closer to this time period, more details will become clear on how heavy the rain will be, as well as if we can expect strong impactful thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be around to slightly above normal, and day to day locales may be slightly cooler or warmer depending on how much rain and cloud coverage occurs locally.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

Fog at LWB will erode by 13z, with VFR conditions expected through the period. A few fair weather cumulus may occur this afternoon.

Wind will be light/variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should provide VFR conditions for through Thursday morning. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will stall over the Southeast. As high pressure exits, the frontal boundary should lift back northward as a warm front to bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late in the week. Sub-VFR conditions appear more likely by Friday-Sunday with increasing moisture and convection along with possible overnight fog.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.