textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue through the week as a warm and moist airmass remains in place.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 447 PM Monday...

Conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening with heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning being the main threats. PWATs are between 1.7" and 2.1" across the area, so training showers and thunderstorms will lead to instances of flash flooding. CAPE values between 2,500 and 3,000 J/Kg, high theta-e presence, and weak shear (less than 10kts) will lead to pulse-oriented thunderstorms with high and efficient rainfall rates.

Did increase coverage and density of river valley fog tonight as well due to the rainfall and moisture that will remain trapped at the surface.

As of 1207 PM Monday...

Warm, humid and unstable continues to be the name of the game in the near term period. Frontal boundary just to our north should sag a little farther south today towards the Ohio River vicinity. Showers and storms, already apparent on radar, will continue throughout the near term, both from passing weak waves and heating. Very heavy rainfall can be expected with any storms, with observed PW values around the 2 inch mark across much of the area. Overall, no significant severe weather threat is anticipated, however, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled out, with a damaging wind threat owing to precip loading. Frontal boundary may move slightly north on Tuesday, with the continuation of the warm, humid, unstable conditions, with shower and storm activity ramping back up in the afternoon hours again.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 1207 PM Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday look to remain unsettled across the area. A low pressure system will move into, and eventually east across the Great Lakes region during the period, dragging a front closer to the area towards the end of the period. Multiple shortwaves moving through the area will trigger showers and storms at times, with heavy downpours. There is the potential we could hit heat advisory criteria on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but afternoon storm activity could damper this.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1207 PM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues in the long term period, with a continuation of the warm and humid conditions, with showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 111 PM Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms, with brief IFR conditions. Otherwise, areas of MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the area.

After 00Z, showers and storms will slowly decrease in coverage. However, after 04-06Z, expecting widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog to develop, and linger through at least 12-14Z Tuesday.

After 14Z, expect mainly VFR although areas of MVFR cigs may continue to linger. Showers and storms will also start to ramp back up again after 16-18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of rain and storms today, and fog tonight, may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M L M M PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H L M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M M M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.