textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

TDs a little lower this afternoon with RHs in the 20 percent range and increased wind gusts Sunday into Monday. Rest of the forecast was largely unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong cold front moves through the region late Sunday into Monday morning bringing a significant temperature drop and rain changing to snow.

2) Marginal risk for severe weather late Sunday night into Monday morning.

3) Much colder temps Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong cold front will move through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. This will bring a marginal risk for severe weather (discussed below), gusty winds, rapid temp drop, and rain changing to snow showers.

As of now, highs look to occur very early Monday morning, falling through the day. Rain showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will transition to snow showers across the region by Monday evening. Light snow accumulations will be possible in the foothills and mountains, but any snow will struggle to accumulate during the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A marginal risk for severe weather will be possible late Sunday night into early Monday morning for SE OH, western WV, and NE KY. Looking at the latest guidance, suggest a weakening squall line entering the CWA early Monday morning. Main threats would be damaging winds, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado. One thing we will need to watch for is the wind threat persisting deeper into WV as a very strong wind field will exist just off the surface. Heavier showers could mix some of those higher gusts to the surface.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Much colder weather is expected in the wake of the cold front Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet on the day Monday with temps falling into the 30s/40s by late afternoon/evening. Lows will fall into the teens/twenties Tuesday/Wednesday morning with highs on Tuesday in the lower 30s lowlands and teens/twenties foothills/mtns.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

While the strongest winds have ended, some gustiness remains for area TAF locales. Expect sfc winds to continue to lessen into the morning.

VFR expected through the forecast cycle with only SCT/BKN mid and high level cloudiness. Afternoon sfc winds under 10kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... Mid level cloudiness could become more OVC/BKN between 10k-15k ft AGL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 03/14/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain/snow showers on Monday into Monday night.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.