textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast thinking remains unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A weak shortwave will move through the area today, with light showers and possible an isolated storm. RH will not be as low today due to increased moisture.

- 2) Showers and storms return for Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a cold front moves through the area. Some storms could be strong to severe. Precipitation then transitions to snow or a rain snow mix Thursday behind the departing front. In addition, gusty winds will take hold, with wind advisory headlines possibly needed across the higher terrain of the northern mountains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak shortwave will move through the area today. This will provide an increase in cloud cover and relative humidity, and some light shower activity. An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon, but overall coverage of any precipitation should be relatively limited.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Showers and storms are expected to become more numerous Wednesday/Wednesday night with the approach of a trough and surface cold front. Showers and storms are possible early Wednesday across parts of the area via forcing from a strong low level jet. Front looks to generally move into the CWA Wednesday evening. Strengthening low level southwesterly flow out ahead of the front will advect above normal pw values into the area, with localized water issues not completely out of the question, mainly in locations that would get hit repetitively, as overall flow/speed of storms should be sufficient enough to prevent widespread issues. As far as severe threat, by the time the front comes in, it appears much of the instability will be waning. However, with the overall strong dynamics/shear expected with the system, there is a damaging wind threat during the period, and spc continues to highlight parts of the area for severe potential.

Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region for Thursday, with a transition to snow or a rain snow mix across areas. In addition, gusty winds will take hold for Thursday behind the front, with at least near advisory criteria winds expected across the higher terrain of the northern mountains. At this point, expecting minimal impacts due to wintry weather with this system.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Isolated showers and storms are possible today, mainly 16Z to 00Z, with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR is expected outside of showers/storms. Generally light south-southwesterly winds during the period, although occasional gusts teens generally 16Z to 21Z.

Additionally, brief/marginal LLWS expected through early Tuesday morning at some sites and have added this to certain TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers/storms may be more widespread than currently forecast for Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night, and in mixed wintry precipitation Thursday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.