textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The risk for tornadoes has been increased across the CWA today per latest SPC outlook.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Showers and storms return today, with the potential for strong to severe storms. Precipitation then transitions to snow or a rain snow mix Thursday behind the departing front. In addition, gusty winds will take hold behind the front, particularly across the higher terrain.

- 2) Another low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes region for late in the week into the weekend, followed by another system late in the week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Active weather returns to the forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday evening with the forecast area in the warm sector of a low pressure system moving northeast into Canada, with its associated cold front and upper trough approaching later in the day and tonight. Some showers and storms will be possible early today in the unstable airmass in the warm sector, and some of these could be strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat with potential for stronger winds aloft to come to the surface. There is also a threat for tornadoes particularly as we progress towards the afternoon hours as the trough/cold front push closer to our area, with shear and SRH increasing, with increasing potential for rotating supercells. In addition, large hail is also possible, with strong/long lived updrafts possible. How much of a threat of severe we have later in the day with the cold front will largely depend on the coverage of storms during the day Wednesday, and how much the atmosphere is worked over. SPC continues to maintain a slight risk across the CWA, but has increased the tor risk to 5%. WPC continues to maintain the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but overall, the threat of problems is fairly low due to anticipated fast movement of convection. It would be more an issue in spots that are repetitively hit by convection and poor drainage areas.

Colder air will filter into the region for Thursday behind the front, with a transition to a wintry mix, particularly across the mountains. There is the possibility for some light ice or sleet accumulation across the mountains, but will hold off on any sort of headlines at this point, due to uncertainty in coverage/amounts/how quickly precipitation leaves the area, and how cold surfaces really are for problems to occur. An sps may be more appropriate for this situation versus an advisory, but will allow the day shift to evaluate closer.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. This will create gusty winds across the area, owing to an increased pressure gradient, and potentially lead to light precipitation across the far northern counties, although at this point, just an increase in cloud cover is anticipated. A brief break in the weather is anticipated for much of the weekend, before another potent system moves into the area for Sunday into Monday, with colder air, and the possibility for wintry weather taking hold on Monday as the system departs to our east.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Isolated to scattered convection will develop generally after 09Z to 11Z, with a decrease in the coverage of convection possible after 18Z to 20Z, before showers and storms increase again from west to east with the approach of a cold front this evening and tonight. Storms this morning and afternoon will contain brief heavy downpours, and strong, damaging, erratic wind gusts, along with brief MVFR and IFR conditions. Additional storms later this evening and overnight associated with the front will be more widespread in coverage, and result in the development of widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions, and continued strong wind gusts.

Light south to southwest surface flow tonight will strengthen and become gusty again on Wednesday, 20 to 30 kts outside thunderstorms. Light southwest flow aloft this evening will become moderate to strong southwest overnight, and then remain so throughout the day on Wednesday. This is likely to result in low level wind shear overnight and early Wednesday, before momentum aloft mixes to the surface Wednesday morning, and this code was maintained in the TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/storms early Wednesday, and associated restrictions, may vary from the forecast. Gusty winds will fluctuate on Wednesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 03/11/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night, and in mixed wintry precipitation early Thursday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.