textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little change to the severe weather outlook for late this evening into Friday morning, carrying a Slight Risk for Perry and Morgan Counties in Ohio and a Marginal Risk for areas north of the I-64 corridor. Loss of daytime heating and orientation of activity draped along the cold front will play a role in convective trends tonight. No changes to the excessive rainfall outlook tonight either, with a Marginal Risk slated for the northern portions of the forecast area due to heavy downpours and potential for training showers and storms heading into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Two rounds of shower and storms possible today. The first encroaches from the west this morning along a warm front, followed by more widespread potential for activity late this evening into the overnight hours with a cold frontal passage. Monitoring for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall with this second round.

- 2) High pressure prevails this weekend into the start of next week, prompting a multi-day dry spell. Renewed chances for precipitation takes aim for the Central Appalachians beginning on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A quiet start to the day will be followed by two rounds of showers and storms later this morning and once again tonight. The first round encroaches the Ohio River Valley this morning, gliding along a passing warm front. Hi-res CAMs depict this cluster of activity reaching the Tri-State around 8 to 9 AM, progressing eastward and diminishing in size by the early afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow in the wake of the warm front, couple with radar coverage, will determine temperature recovery for this afternoon. Clearing skies from southwest to northeast will encourage a stronger rise in afternoon highs for today, with our southwestern zones branching into the low 80s while the north-central lowlands plateau around the mid 70s due to lingering cloud coverage and lingering proximity to the warm front.

A cold front, oriented from southwest to northeast, travels down from the Great Lakes region for the second half of the day into tonight. Thunderstorm activity forming along the boundary today will bear close monitoring late this evening as the front sinks southward. Timing of storms plays a role in convective trends, with gradual weakening expected due to the loss of daytime heating the further south activity travels tonight. A similar setup took place this past weekend, where storms retained strong to low end severe strength as they ventured down into Perry County late Sunday night and proceeded to weaken further overnight into Monday morning. While losing severity characteristics, storms will continue to be capable of producing lightning, bursts of stronger winds, and heavy downpours heading into Friday morning.

Very little change to the severe weather outlook for late this evening into Friday morning, carrying a Slight Risk for Perry and Morgan Counties in Ohio and a Marginal Risk for areas north of the I-64 corridor. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall remains slated for the northern portions of the forecast area due to heavy downpours and potential for training showers and storms.

The front will continue its southward progression through the forecast area on Friday, with colder air filtering down from the north in its wake. The back edge of precipitation may transition over to a wet rain/snow mix, and could lead to very light snow accumulations along the northeast West Virginia mountains overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After an active end to the work week, the weekend will shape up to be pleasant amid robust high pressure. This feature slides into the Ohio Valley for Saturday and will retain strong influence over the forecast area into Monday morning. The center of the high shifts eastward for the end of the weekend. This will bolster a warming trend to transpire by Sunday, returning daytime temperatures to their climatological norm for this time of year. Shortwave activity for the start of next week may begin to encourage renewed potential for showers and storms despite strong ridging aloft. Diurnally driven convection rounds out the Days 6 through 7 forecast period (Tuesday and Wednesday), with peak afternoon temperatures exceeding 80 degrees amid an abundance of moisture settled into the area from onshore flow and passing shortwaves.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A warm front sails northward into the area this morning, imposing a chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder late this morning into the early afternoon. A brief break in activity during the afternoon and evening will be followed by overnight convection draped along a southwest to northeast oriented cold front. Uncertainty exists in regards to whether storms will retain strong to severe strength as they drift southward into the area late tonight into Friday morning.

There is higher confidence in lowering ceilings to occur overnight tonight with the arrival of the cold front. MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely be included with the 12Z TAF package for the Friday morning timeframe.

Strong winds aloft entering into our airspace early this morning will yield low level wind shear potential for most terminals. Winds mix down to the surface after daybreak and will prompt a breezy day, with gusts on the upwards of 20 to 25kts included for each site this afternoon into tonight,

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief drop into MVFR possible later this morning with precipitation.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 03/26/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front and accompanying showers and storms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.