textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Flood Watch across northwestern West Virginia and southeast Ohio has been extended through 7 AM Friday morning. In these areas, additional rainfall on top of what's already fallen can exacerbate or lead to new flooding issues.

A marginal risk of severe weather is now in effect over the area today with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The stretch of wet and unsettled weather continues with showers and thunderstorms expected through this weekend. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds, and flooding remains a concern across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia.

2) Very warm weather is expected through Saturday, then a weak cold front will bring a small drop in temperatures Sunday. Unseasonably warm weather then returns next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Over the next few days, a frontal boundary just north of our area across southern Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio will show very little movement. This, in combination with southern streams of mid-level vorticity, will allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to continue over the next few days. A cold front will swing across the area Saturday night, bringing a period of drier weather across northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio for several days.

Strong to severe storms are not out of the question today with sufficient forcing, wind dynamics, and just a touch of instability. A marginal risk of severe weather is being outlooked by SPC, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. A greater potential of severe weather will exist Saturday ahead of the cold front with weak to marginal instability expected. MLCAPE will rise to 400-600 J/kg by Saturday afternoon with 40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. The greatest severe threat Saturday will likely be damaging wind gusts as storms develop along and ahead of the cold front.

Given the heavy rainfall that has been seen over southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia the past few days, any thunderstorms that occur over those same areas will have to be closely monitored for flooding. The Flood Watch has been extended over these areas through 7 AM Friday morning to account for this threat.

While Sunday and Monday won't be completely dry, rain chances will be lower than the past several days. Another low pressure system will develop over the northern Plains early next week, and as it tracks eastward, rain chances will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday across the Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next few days will be very warm with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and Saturday across the lowlands. A slight drop in temperatures is expected Sunday behind the cold front. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures will rise again next week into the 70s as a ridge rebuilds over the eastern half of the country.

CLIMATE

Near record high temperatures are forecast for Friday and Saturday.

Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------------------------- Friday, 3/6 | Saturday, 3/7 | --------------------------------------- CRW | 80 / 80 (1956) | 80 / 81 (2009) | HTS | 81 / 81 (1956) | 80 / 82 (1983) | CKB | 74 / 83 (1983) | 77 / 77 (2009) | PKB | 76 / 76 (1973) | 78 / 80 (2009) | BKW | 76 / 75 (1910) | 75 / 74 (2009) | EKN | 74 / 77 (1946) | 77 / 76 (2009) | ---------------------------------------.