textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Light upslope snow showers are still being observed across portions of southern West Virginia early this afternoon, so we decided to keep 20% chance PoPs in the forecast through the mid afternoon.

Little changes with the rest of the forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wind Advisories are in effect Friday. Expect a very windy day as a strong area of low pressure passes by to our north.

2) A roller coaster ride in temperatures is expected over the next 7 days. Chilly today, mild this weekend, and back to cold early next week.

3) The next widespread rain and snow chance will be Sunday into Monday. While there will be very little snow accumulation, roads in the higher ridges of the northeast West Virginia mountains could be slippery Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A very windy day is expected Friday. Expect wind gusts to occasionally reach 50-55 mph across most of the area. Wind Advisory headlines are currently in effect across most of the forecast area, except for southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, where the wind won't be quite as strong there.

High Wind Warning headlines may eventually be needed in the northeastern West Virginia mountains over the higher terrain and portions of southeast Ohio. Our wind forecast is currently just below warning criteria, but we will watch this carefully and may upgrade at a later time if things change.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Over the next week, large swings in temperatures are expected. The large ridge of high pressure that has been influencing our weather over the past week has passed to the east, and now a trough currently sits over the middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures today are much chillier than recent days with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s areawide.

The 500-mb flow will flatten out Friday, giving way to a subtle warm up with highs expected to reach the 50s and lower 60s. Heights will then rise this weekend with temperatures again reaching the 70s for all but the mountains Sunday.

A large and robust low pressure system will pass through Monday, and temperatures will tumble behind it. Overnight lows will be in the 20s Monday night and highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s. As a reference, average high temperatures this time of year are generally in the lower to middle 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A large low pressure system will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday. This system will likely bring gusty winds (30-40 mph), widespread rain, and eventually a changeover to snow showers as colder air filters in on the backside of the low. Rainfall totals are expected to be 0.50-1.00 inch areawide. No snowfall accumulation is expected in the lowlands, but light accumulations are possible in the grass in the higher terrain of the northeastern West Virginia mountains. With a light dusting of snow possible in these areas, roads may be slippery as temperatures drop into the 20s by daybreak Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A mixture of MVFR and VFR is seen early this afternoon. Lingering snow showers will eventually taper off across the West Virginia mountains. VFR should return areawide by 00Z this evening, continuing through the rest of the period.

Beginning 12Z Friday morning and lasting through 18Z, winds will become gusty. Expect occasional wind gusts 30-40 kts across all of the terminals Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Improvement to areawide VFR today may occur faster than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-026>032-039-040-515>526. OH...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.