textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Raised max temperatures a couple degrees across the area for Sunday with strong southwesterly flow taking hold.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A cold front will move through the region Sunday evening and overnight, with showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe.

- 2) Another front will affect the area late week, with cooler conditions in its wake.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weather becomes active again on Sunday across the region. Very warm, and humid conditions for this time of year, will take hold across the area, with increasing southwesterly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and storms are expected to develop by the afternoon hours, as instability increases out ahead of approaching front, progged to be in SE Ohio/approaching Ohio River vicinity by evening. Forecast model soundings across the north Sunday afternoon and evening indicate an atmosphere with strong shear, and steep lapse rates, with the potential for strong updrafts to develop, and thus a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Greatest threat area still looks to be along and north of the Ohio River vicinity due to timing of front, with instability waning after sunset, although some stronger cells will likely survive into the first few hours after sunset as they progress south/east. SPC continues to highlight the northern half of the area in a slight risk, with all hazards mentioned.

Storms should gradually reduce in intensity after sunset, with the front continuing to progress eastward across the CWA, making its way to our east by early Monday morning. In the wake of the front, cooler, more seasonable temperatures will take hold for Monday, along with somewhat gusty winds as high pressure tries to gradually nudge in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another frontal boundary will affect the area towards the end of the week. Still pretty far out, but there are indications it could linger across the area for a few days, with multiple waves moving along, possibly enhancing periods of precipitation. Too early to be concerned about any water issues this far out, but regardless, looks like a wet end to the week/into the next weekend is possible.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions can be expected through Sunday early afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front could cause restrictions late in the afternoon across central Ohio and northern West Virginia.

Light winds can be expected this evening, becoming southwest later tonight, then increasing on Sunday with some gusts of 15 to 25 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.