textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

A system serves up showers and thunderstorms at times through the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio Valley region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1235 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will push into our area early this morning. A low level jet (currently 60 knots at 3000 feet near Charleston) will keep very strong winds just off the surface this morning. There is concern that these storms could mix these winds to the ground and produce damaging wind gusts. Model soundings also show helicity values of 800 to 900 as the line hits our western counties with shear values of 50 to 60. Therefore, tornados are also a possibility. With effective CAPE of 500 to 1000 in this area as well, some large hail is possible.

The cold front will then stall over eastern Kentucky and West Virginia today and tonight. Heating south of the front should once again create conditions favorable for severe weather this afternoon. The threat of flash flooding also increases. A couple of meso models are showing some heavy precipitation getting into northeastern West Virginia, although the majority are not. This does lead to concerns that the Flood Watch may need to be extended across the rest of northern West Virginia, but will hold off for now until models are in better agreement.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 156 PM Wednesday...

Frontal boundary initially stalled out across the area early Friday, should generally lift back north during the day. Heavy rain/storms are looking likely early Friday along the Ohio River and North Central WV in area of front. However, showers and storms will continue to occur during the day Friday, but thinking is as we progress into the late afternoon or evening hours, the bulk of precipitation should generally be north of the Ohio River closer to the front. Still looking at the potential for severe storms, mainly north of the Ohio River on Friday, with a damaging wind threat possible. By the time we get into Friday evening/night, the front should have lifted well to our north, along with the axis of heavier rainfall as waves of low pressure move along the front.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Point: * Flooding concerns linger into early next week.

An unsettled pattern continues as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region and then migrates northeast on Saturday. While drier conditions may creep in to southern and eastern portions of the CWA during the afternoon, the best chances for precipitation linger across southeast OH, northwest WV, and northeast KY. Rain and thunderstorms overspread the area as a cold front approaches Saturday night, then activity continues into Sunday night while the front slowly trudges east.

During the first half of the work week, another low passes to the north while an associated upper trough pivots overhead. Periods of precipitation remain possible as this system crosses and potentially sends another front across the area.

Flooding remains a concern, particularly across the western half of the CWA where soils are already expected to be saturated from previous rainfall. In addition to an initial risk of flash flooding this weekend, runoff is expected to lead to rises on rivers, creeks, and streams with potential for river flooding to persist through early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 145 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will push into our area early this morning, creating brief IFR conditions. A low level jet (currently 60 knots at 3000 feet near Charleston) will keep very strong winds just off the surface this morning. There is concern that these storms could mix these winds to the ground and produce damaging wind gusts. Tornados and large hail are also possible. Behind the line, some rain will create MVFR conditions for an hour or two. The line should weaken some as it pushes eastward into West Virginia.

The cold front will stall over the area today and tonight. This will create some MVFR clouds north of the front, with some areas dropping to IFR tonight. Generally VFR clouds can be expected south of the front. However, showers and thunderstorms at times will create brief IFR conditions. Some thunderstorms this afternoon south of the cold front could become severe.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning, then low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions with showers and thunderstorms could vary. The location of the front stalling could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 04/03/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Sunday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-014-017-019. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.