textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Areas of dense fog are expected this morning. Still some uncertainties with the next round of wintry weather later this weekend, but snowfall looks possible across the area with most models showing light accumulations Sunday night through Monday, impacting the morning commute.

KEY MESSAGES

-1. Drier and more mild weather today and Saturday. Areas of dense fog likely this morning and possibly again tonight.

-2. A system looks to bring accumulating snow to the area Sunday and Monday.

-3. Warming trend by middle of next week with daily rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of dense fog and low stratus are expected this morning. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s and lower 30s across the forecast area this morning though leading to some patchy areas of freezing fog. This could in turn lead to slick spots on roads, sidewalks and elevated surfaces. One limiting factor will be extent of mid to high level cloud cover moving over which would limit fog formation. An SPS or Dense Fog Advisory may be needed this morning and will be evaluated as these conditions develop.

Otherwise, Drier and milder weather is anticipated for today and again on Saturday as high pressure moves in. Mostly clear skies are expected each afternoon with temperatures in the 50s today and low to mid 60s on Saturday. With clearer skies and calm winds it is possible that some locations may be warmer than the advertised high temperatures. Another round of fog is possible tonight. One limiting factor may be increasing winds later tonight with an approaching dry cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Our next round of wintry weather is expected to be Sunday and Monday with a deepening trough north of our area interacting with a southern stream shortwave disturbance. There is much uncertainty still in the details, but models do suggest some rain chances Saturday night into Sunday with some rain/snow mix being possible across the northern lowlands as a cold front stalls to our east.

The main event and question mark is Sunday night through Monday as models do show wintry weather in the form of snow and maybe a glaze of freezing rain across our area. Models still differ quite a lot at this time though in regards to timing and amounts, but all show some precipitation late Sunday night through Monday.

The GFS is the most bullish solution, with precipitation arriving between ~06z(1am) and ~09z(4am) Monday. This model shows a stronger shortwave and the highest snowfall totals. The EURO model is in the middle showing an arrival closer to ~12z(7am) and more widespread coverage. The QPF and snowfall output in the EURO is lackluster though, only showing very light amounts across the entire area, with up to an inch across only portions of the lowlands and 1 to 3 inches in the mountains. The Canadian and NAM are the latest on timing with more of a bias across the mountains and southern coalfields for amounts and those amounts look to be on the lighter side much like the EURO solution.

The GFS is the current standalone showing the highest amounts, even showing a stripe of 3" to 5" across the central lowlands. 4" to 8" is shown across portions of the mountains with the GFS.

That said, there is still quite some variance in the models, but some snowfall looks possible to end the weekend and start the new week. Some impacts to the Monday morning commute could be possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Daily chances for rain linger through the week behind this next wintry scenario with multiple disturbances taking aim at the area. A warming trend will start Tuesday through the balance of the week though as we go from 50s across the lowlands on Tuesday to possible 70s Thursday and Friday. There is higher confidence for reaching these warmer than normal temperatures by the end of the week due to a very strong dome of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS resulting in warm southerly flow.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Low stratus and areas of dense fog will impact sites this morning. CIGS and VIS will vary due to passing high level clouds moving over, but IFR or lower will be possible at many sites with the low ceilings. EKN will maintain dense LIFR FZFG through the morning, until at least ~14-15z. Elsewhere, low stratus and shallow fog will be the primary impact.

VFR resumes under SKC by ~16z and will continue through the day. Winds will be calm at most sites, but BKW, HTS, and PKB may see light SW'rly winds picking up in the afternoon. Another round of fog may be possible tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR today may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in snow and wintry mix Sunday night through Monday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.