textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today. Periods of rain return Friday afternoon through Sunday. Break Monday. More active weather thereafter.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 640 AM Thursday...

The current near term forecast is generally on track this morning.

As of 210 AM Thursday...

While the bulk of the area should remain dry, a shortwave passing to the northwest could bring some light precipitation or sprinkles into southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky this morning. Quiet weather and decreasing cloud cover are then expected for the afternoon as the shortwave departs and drier air filters in at the surface. For tonight, lingering high pressure allows drier conditions to persist, though cloud cover may gradually increase in response to the next system lifting northeast out of Texas.

Mild temperatures are expected during the day, with highs reaching low 40s to low 50s in the mountains, and upper 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands. Lows for tonight should then range from 30 to 40 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 200 AM Thursday...

To start this period, a system to our southwest will be moving north through Friday. This feature will spread chances for rain by the afternoon. Guidance wanted to speed up the timing of precipitation spreading in from west to east but models had us dry for a good portion of Friday, therefore cut back on the timing of rainfall from guidance significantly to account for model agreement.

High end PoPs, mainly categorical, for the rest of the weekend is expected with an all rain regime as another system from the southwest rides up along our western periphery toward the northeast. The total QPF is up near 2 inches for the weekend time frame for most of the area which will be a good soak for the area and for drought mitigation purposes. The warm trend will continue through this period with temperatures forecast to be anomalously higher than average for this time of year.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 200 AM Thursday...

By Monday, there will be a slight break from rain as the aforementioned system exits. Medium range models have us active thereafter with a few disturbances forecast to head our way. Chances for precipitation increase dramatically for Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly rain for Tuesday and a transition over to a possible wintry mix for Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to be on a warm trend but lose momentum during the new week eventually going back down to more seasonable by the end of this period.

Model agreement deviates slightly for this period, therefore accepted central guidance to represent a more ensemble approach for the end of this period dealing with rain to a wintry mix. Confidence is not there to time when the cold air gets to us therefore the forcast is likely to change some as we get closer.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 640 AM Thursday...

Once patchy fog dissipates early this morning, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day. Mid-level clouds should decrease in coverage this afternoon, then an approaching system brings clouds back into the area late in the TAF period. Patchy valley fog may again be possible overnight, though the increasing clouds may help to limit the extent of development.

Winds will be calm to light through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog could be possible tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 12/26/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain and low stratus Friday night through the weekend.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.