textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and along the Ohio River on the WV side as well today and tonight. Also, locally heavy rain could lead to minor nuisance flooding, particularly in a heavier thunderstorm, and in the mountains where there is still residual snow and ice melt amid unseasonably mild weather.

- 2) A pattern shift to colder weather will arrive over the weekend, with light snow showers possible Sunday into Monday, as lake-effect moisture flows into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, and a mid/upper-level low crosses and generates a potent offshore storm.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong low pressure system will bring rain today from its warm front, and then showers tonight ahead of its cold front.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded their Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms that had been along our western flank, and it now encroaches across the Ohio River into about a tier of WV counties along the east side of it. All three severe weather hazards, damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes, are indicated at 5, 5 and 2 percent, respectively, but the expansion of it was mostly for the hail threat. This Marginal Risk, is on the eastern flank of a Slight Risk area over the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi valleys with 15, 15 and 5 percent risks for most of it, where earlier warm frontal passage will allow better instability to develop this afternoon.

The culprit is a negatively tilted mid/upper-level short wave trough which closes off as it crosses the plains today and the midwest tonight. Its associated surface low pressure center slowly intensifies as it takes a similar and slight farther south track today and tonight, possibly getting below 990 MB by Friday morning.

Rain showers associated with a warm front loosely associated with the system were rolling across far southern portions of the area overnight, and will move northward across the remainder of the area, though mainly east of the Ohio River today, as the system approaches.

As such, instability will be limited late today and this evening. However, we may be able to manage modest CAPE, up to around 500 J/kg, in southeast Ohio where there is less rain today, or northeast Kentucky, who're the rain ends and the warm front crosses soonest. Any convective instability that can be realized given surface dew points climbing well into the 50s will have high shear to work with, to go with a strong upper level jet, modest mid-level forcing and low level warm advection veering with height near the bottom of the warm front.

Elevated convection associated with warm fronts is generally maximized during the overnight and early morning hours, but surface/near surface-based convection along the warm front itself could support all three severe weather hazards more independently of the time of day. It is also plausible upscale growth upstream makes inroads into the forecast area this evening with a wind threat, before weakening tonight. The expansion of the hail threat accounts for elevated instability farther northeast in the warm advection regime tonight.

Meanwhile, the cold front associated with the system whizzes across the area Friday morning, also unfavorable timing for strong thunderstorms diurnally, but additional showers will occur with it overnight into Friday morning, with a thunderstorm not out of the question at least overnight.

The overall QPF with this system ranges from about one half inch to one inch, generally not a significant hydrologic concern. However, a stronger, heavier thunderstorm this evening could cause a quick water rise due to poor drainage and saturated ground. Also, locally higher terrain-enhance rainfall amounts, combined with residual snow and ice melt amid the unseasonably mild weather, could give rise to localized minor high water issues.

Mid/upper-level ridging along the Gulf and southeast coasts, coupled with the warm front crossing later today and tonight, keep the unseasonably mild weather going today through Friday. Even as the cold front crosses Friday morning, , it will take a second, drier cold front crossing later in the day to start taking out the unseasonably mild air in ernest. However, there should be little if any snow and ice left in our environment by the time this week is out.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The mid/upper-level trough that bring a pair of cold fronts across the area Friday is followed by another right behind it, which finally eradicates the Gulf ridge giving rise to the springlike weather this week, as it closes off into a modestly deep mid/upper-level low over the broader northeast U.S by Sunday.

A flat wave out ahead of this system may bring light rain to far southeastern portions of the area on Saturday.

More important cyclogenesis is forecast to occur off the southeast coast on Sunday, the cyclone then intensifying quickly as it moves northeast off the middle Atlantic seaboard Sunday night through Monday, and then even intensifies further as it moves on through the Canadian maritimes Monday night through Tuesday. The weather could get rather impactful for a time along the middle Atlantic seaboard Sunday afternoon and evening if the storm undergoes a period of rapid intensification, takes a northward curl and becomes nearly stacked in the process.

For the forecast area, this would bring rain to at least southeast portions overnight Saturday night, that then changes to snow on Sunday as low level cold advection ensues beneath the mid/upper-level low digging southeastward across the area. Light snowfall accumulations are possible, mainly over the higher, colder terrain. Light snow or snow showers are also plausible Sunday beneath the digging mid/upper-level low, particularly with its crossing being coincident with peak insolation Sunday afternoon.

As the system moves offshore, deep layer northwest flow will transport ample moisture from the Great Lakes into the forecast area, resulting in upslope snow with the potential for at least light accumulations in the mountains and some foothill locations, Sunday night into Monday. Any accumulations in the lowlands at this time would be with bands within trajectories off the Great Lakes, and otherwise spotty. By contrast, the mst impactful accumulations in the mountains may be where these bands intersect the higher windward terrain.

Temperatures trend sharply downward Saturday through Monday, in the wake of the second cold frontal passage on Friday, and then the deep mid/upper-level low digging southeastward through the area Sunday into Sunday night amid long-wave troughing along the east coast. Temperatures will be back below normal by the second half of the weekend, and the nadir of the cold wave appears to be most likely during the early portion of the following work week, with highs in the mid 30s lowlands and 20s mountains Monday, and lows Monday night around 20 for the lowlands and teens in the mountains.

However, the pattern appears to remain progressive, with the east coast long wave trough shifting offshore heading into the middle of next week. Temperatures recover to, if not even above, normal amid mid/upper-level ridging ahead of the next cold front next Wednesday. Hang on tight, though, as the roller coaster ride continues, with 00Z model consensus on a deep long wave trough and cold air mass settling into the east behind the cold front late next week. The cold front itself is likely to be preceded/accompanied by a round of rain showers, and possibly thunder.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

There are areas of fog, stratus and stratocumulus around early this morning. A warm front will bring rain today, with thunderstorms also possible late, and then a cold front will bring showers tonight, with thunderstorms still possible.

The TAFs open with dense VLIFR fog at EKN and HTS, with MVFR to IFR mist/fog elsewhere, but it can become dense at a moments notice when clouds break.

The fog should dissipate by 14Z this morning, and ceilings could improve to VFR for a time at CKB and EKN. However, The warm front will then bring rain from south to north, with MVFR visibility and ceilings to most sites this afternoon. The rain will be mostly southeast of the Ohio River, so HTS and PKB may not have MVFR visibility, but MVFR ceilings are still likely to persist there.

Thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and this evening, as the warm front itself moves through and out ahead of the cold front to the west. This was coded up as a PROB30 at HTS and a VCTS at CRW and PKB 22Z-00Z.

Finally, there may be a brief break with VFR visibility and ceilings this evening, before the cold front brings rain showers with MVFR visibility and ceilings tonight. A thunderstorm remains possible overnight tonight, but confidence was not high enough to code it up for this time frame at this juncture.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility may vary and fluctuate. Timing and location of showers may also vary, and thunderstorms could be more impactful then forecast late today and tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 02/19/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M H M L M H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H L H L H M L M H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in snow Sunday into Monday, most likely in and near the mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.