textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The risk for severe weather has quietly diminished across the forecast area this evening, with the exception of convection entering into the southern coalfields at the time of writing. The earlier Tornado Watch was allowed to end and no additional Watches have been warranted.

Modified temperatures as many locations in the Charleston metro areas and eastward remain mild this evening, primarily due to lackluster convective trends thus far and maintaining strong daytime heating. Should see temperatures tumble down to anticipated lows over the next few hours as the cold front tracks through the area overnight.

328 PM update... The Tornado Watch has been expanded into north central West Virginia, with the Watch in effect until 5 PM.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Showers and storms return today, with the potential for strong to severe storms. Precipitation then transitions to snow or a rain snow mix late tonight into Thursday morning behind the departing front. In addition, gusty winds will take hold behind the front, particularly across the higher terrain.

- 2) Another low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes region for late in the work week into the weekend, followed by another system late in the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across the forecast area in the warm sector in advance of a cold front currently located across central portions of the Ohio Valley. This initial wave of convection is anticipated to continue lifting further northeast, with an additional round of more widespread activity following late this afternoon and evening, progged to move west to east across the CWA. SPC has maintained the Slight Risk across the forecast area, with a Tornado Watch currently in effect across the central/northern forecast area until 5 PM. The main threats continue to be damaging wind gusts and the potential for isolated tornadoes, with hail also possible. The second round will be highly dependent on how destabilized the atmosphere can become after the initial wave moves through, but some additional strong to severe storms are anticipated, with damaging winds the primary threat given strong kinematics as the front approaches, although an isolated tornado or two remains possible. The severe threat quickly tapers by late this evening, although gusty winds will remain possible as the front crosses.

Locally heavy rain is expected through the evening with this activity, with isolated pockets of over an inch already being observed across portions of southeast Ohio with some training showers/storms. Given an overall increase in how fast shower/storm activity moves as the front approaches, have opted to hold off on a Flood Watch for flash flooding. Isolated instances of flash flooding do remain possible, however, especially if heavier rain moves over locations that experienced flooding recently with the last event.

High temperatures today will be the warmest of the week, pushing the low 80s across portions of the lowlands. In addition, it will be breezy outside of any shower/thunderstorm activity given strong low-level winds mixing down to the surface. Given such, have increased wind gusts from central guidance, with a Special Weather Statement in effect until 5 PM to account for this. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible outside of thunderstorms, with isolated gusts higher than that possible.

Strong cold air advection behind the front as it crosses tonight may result in a brief transition to a rain/snow mix or snow showers late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, primarily across the higher terrain, where a slushy half inch to an inch could be possible in a few locations. Given the recent warmth and wet antecedent ground from rain, minimal impacts are expected, and mainly above 3500 feet. Drier weather quickly returns by late Thursday morning, with breezy to gusty winds continuing throughout the day amid much cooler temperatures. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph will briefly be possible across the higher mountainous terrain with cold advection following the passage of the front late tonight into Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday night. The main impacts from this system across our area will be strong gusty winds (30 to 40 mph) across the area during the day on Friday, especially across central/northern portions of the CWA. Otherwise, precipitation is anticipated to remain north of the area.

A brief break in the weather is anticipated for much of the weekend, before another potent system moves into the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing another round of rain and gusty winds, followed by much colder air for the beginning of the new work week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

An advancing cold front will continue to bring showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder to the area this evening alongside gusty winds. The risk for severe weather has quickly tapered down in the forecast area, but one pesky storm heading towards BKW within the next hour could pose brief vsby restrictions as it passes overhead.

In the wake of the frontal passage, a blast of colder air trickles down from the northwest overnight and will promote a transition from rain to snow for any lingering precipitation. Opted to include the last line of precipitation mention as light rain and snow showers across all TAF sites as showers quickly depart eastward Thursday morning. Ceilings will lower down into IFR/MVFR levels overnight, followed by clearing skies on Thursday as high pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley.

Gusty winds outside of showers and storms will stretch into the overnight hours and veer out of the northwest with the passage of the cold front. Intensity of surface gusts will be strongest at the onset of the TAF period, becoming 15 to 20 knots on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/storms and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast. Gusty winds will fluctuate today into tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

Climate

A few record high temperatures were set (R) or tied (T) on Tuesday, and a few more may be set or tied today.

Obs-Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------------------------- Tue, 3/10 | Wed, 3/11 | --------------------------------------- CRW | 81R/ 80 (2009) | 82 / 83 (1990) | HTS | 81R/ 80 (2009) | 83 / 83 (1990) | CKB | 78 / 79 (1973) | 79 / 78 (1973) | PKB | 78 / 79 (2009) | 79 / 78 (1990) | BKW | 74 / 77 (2016) | 77 / 74 (2006) | EKN | 78T/ 78 (2016) | 79 / 76 (2006) | ---------------------------------------

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.