textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to PoPs and QPF to align with latest CAMs trends for todays system. Added mention of areas of fog for Monday morning across much of the lowlands.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Widespread rain is expected today, with the heaviest amounts (0.50-1.00 inch) across the southern coalfields and mountains. A brief wintry mix is possible at the highest peaks this morning.

2.) A significant warming trend begins Tuesday, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the work week. Higher elevation snowpack erosion.

3.) Gusty winds and scattered showers return Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A southern stream shortwave trough, currently pivoting across the Lower Mississippi Valley, will lift northeastward today, driving a surface low through the Deep South. Isentropic ascent ahead of this feature is already generating widespread precipitation, which will overspread the forecast area from southwest to northeast this morning.

Thermal profiles from model soundings indicate a dominant warm nose between H850 and H750, with temperatures reaching +3C to +5C aloft. This supports rain as the primary precipitation type for the vast majority of the CWA. However, at the highest elevations of the northern mountains (generally above 3500 ft), surface wet-bulb temperatures hovering near 0C at onset may allow for a brief period of wet snow before dynamic cooling is overcome by warm advection, transitioning precipitation to all rain by midday. Rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are forecast, with the highest amounts oriented along the southern coalfields where moisture transport is maximized. While antecedent conditions are somewhat moist from the melt out of the lower elevation snow and ice pack, this rainfall accumulation over a 12-hour period is expected to remain largely within bankfull limits, though minor drainage issues in low- lying areas cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east this evening as the shortwave exits. Partial clearing and light winds in the wake of the system, combined with low-level saturation from todays rain, will likely foster the development of areas of fog tonight into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper-level ridging builds in Monday night and persists through mid-week, signaling a pattern change to significantly warmer conditions. As the surface high shifts east, return flow from the Gulf will advect a much milder airmass into the Ohio Valley. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60s across the lowlands from Tuesday through Friday, with 50s likely even at the highest elevations.

This prolonged period of warmth, with freezing levels rising well above the terrain summits, will facilitate a steady ripening and melting of the remaining snowpack in the mountains. Current analysis suggests the melt will be orderly; however, stream flows out of the higher will remain bolstered due to the combination of runoff and todays rainfall. Unsure on the ice status on waterways coming out of the mountains given steeper runs, but if any streams or rivers are still completely frozen over some minor ice jam issues may be possible with increased flows.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By Wednesday, a northern stream trough moving through the Great Lakes will drag a cold front toward the region. The pressure gradient will tighten between the departing high and the approaching front, strengthening low-level flow. Momentum transfer would yield surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph Wednesday afternoon, particularly across the exposed ridgetops.

Moisture return ahead of this front appears modest, limiting precipitation chances to scattered showers, primarily Wednesday night into Thursday. A secondary southern stream wave ejecting from the Plains may interact with the frontal boundary late week, potentially enhancing precipitation chances Thursday night into Friday, though model spread regarding the timing and phasing of these features leads to lower forecast confidence for rainfall amounts during this period. Behind the front, seasonably cooler air will filter back into the region for next weekend.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly this morning as widespread rain continues to overspread the terminals. VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR by 15Z at most sites and persist through the period. Visibility reductions to 2-4SM in rain and mist are expected.

Precipitation tapers off from west to east after 00Z Monday. However, low-level moisture trapped beneath a strengthening inversion will likely maintain IFR/LIFR stratus and allow for the development of fog overnight. Areas of dense fog are possible at CRW, HTS, and PKB towards after this TAF period if breaks in the cloud cover occur.

Winds will remain light, generally from the southeast to south at 5-10KTs today, becoming light and variable tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions may vary from the forecast. Fog coverage and intensity may vary from the forecast tonight contingent on clearing out of clouds.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 02/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H L H M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L H H M H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L H L M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Rain, low stratus, and perhaps fog should support continuing IFR conditions Monday morning, especially in the mountains and southern coalfields.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.