textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A feed of moisture from the Great Lakes has allowed a few light showers to linger over portions of the area; however, activity is still expected to taper off as drier air filters in later today

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread freeze expected tonight into early Sunday morning.

3) Next week will be seasonable and quiet.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A feed of moisture from off the Great Lakes has allowed scattered to broken cloud cover and a few light showers to persist this afternoon. However, high pressure building in from the west should bring an end to any lingering precipitation by evening. Breezy conditions will also diminish by the end of the day.

For tonight, temperatures are expected to dive into the 20s to 30s under clearing skies and calm to light flow. Therefore, a Freeze Warning is effect for the entire forecast area late tonight through early Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

While a low pressure system meanders up along the East Coast next week, the Middle Ohio Valley is expected to remain dry with high pressure in control through the end of the work week. Although daytime temperatures should be right around normal for this time of year, the early mornings remain chilly through mid week. If the growing season is not ended by tonight's freeze, then additional frost/freeze products may be warranted late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day, with isolated light showers coming to an end as drier air builds into the area. Gusty north winds will weaken this evening, then flow becomes calm to light and northeasterly overnight.

Under clearing skies and calm flow, fog may develop in the river valleys and prompt MVFR or worse conditions at a few terminals late tonight into early Sunday morning. Any restrictions will dissipate after sunrise, allowing areawide VFR to take hold for the remainder of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of clearing skies today and extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR or worse conditions will be possible in river valley fog each morning through early next week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ003-004.