textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

Becoming much colder with breezy conditions continuing through Monday in the wake of a cold front. Additional chances for precipitation return on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 350 PM Sunday...

Reduced dew points slightly and increased wind gusts across the lower elevations this afternoon to better reflect on-going conditions. Potentially not great RH recoveries across the south tonight coupled with another dry day on Monday will yield continued risk for wildfire spread but will be somewhat tempered by lighter, but still breezy conditions. Overnight burning is discouraged.

As of 1210 PM Sunday...

Forecast area is behind a cold front that passed overnight, with cooler and drier air taking hold. Gusty winds expected today behind the front, owing to tight pressure gradient, CAA, and strong winds aloft off ridge tops in particular. A wind advisory has been issued across the higher terrain through Monday. With the drier air filtering into place, RH values will generally bottom out in the upper 20s to 30s in the near term period. Fire danger should not remain a major concern however, with recent rain overnight, and with winds expected to slacken during the day Monday. High temperatures on Monday will continue to remain cool, with upper 40s to lower 50s expected across much of the area.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 1210 PM Sunday...

Precipitation returns to the area Tuesday into the first part of Wednesday as a shortwave crosses the area. Precipitation across the mountains, and SE Ohio, could start out as a brief wintry mix Tuesday, before transitioning to rain, if moisture arrives early enough in the day. In addition, there could be a rumble of thunder on Tuesday evening across the south, but overall, chances are limited. Wave will move off to the east later Tuesday, with areas of drizzle and low clouds lingering in its wake. Wednesday, although rather cloudy, should overall be drier, and warmer.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1210 PM Sunday...

Temps warm nicely Thursday as southerly flow increases out ahead of the next system that will develop in the southern stream, and eject northeast towards our region, transporting ample moisture to the area. Details are still being worked out at this point, but it's starting to look like a period of good soaking rain is possible late in the week.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1210 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions for the period. Gusty westerly to west- northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in the 20 kt range across the lowlands and the 20-40 kt range across the higher terrain, will slacken somewhat after 00-03Z, although will remain gusty at times particularly across the mountains. LLWS is expected tonight across parts of the mountains, including at site KEKN, generally 23Z through 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR ceilings possible with the weather system expected on Tuesday. IFR visibility possible early Tuesday in any areas that begin as snow.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.