textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast reasoning has been updated to reflect a diminished threat for freezing rain along the eastern slopes Sunday morning, with precipitation types now favoring a cold rain or wet snow mix at the highest elevations.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) A southern stream system will bring widespread rain to the region Sunday, with the heaviest amounts (0.50-1.00 inch) focused across the southern coalfields.

2.) A significant warming trend takes hold next week, with high temperatures in the lowlands likely exceeding 60 degrees from Tuesday through Friday.

3.) Unsettled weather returns mid-to-late week with a weak disturbance Wednesday night and a potentially stronger system approaching by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Current surface observations indicate high pressure remains in control, providing dry conditions through early Sunday morning. Attention then turns to a southern stream shortwave trough progged to track south of the region on Sunday.

Numerical guidance indicates a sharp gradient in Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from north to south. Deterministic output suggests rainfall totals ranging from a trace to a tenth of an inch across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia, increasing to between one-half and one inch across the southern coalfields and southwest Virginia. The corridor in between, including the Metro Valley, is forecast to receive between a tenth and a half of an inch.

A critical forecast challenge has been the precipitation type along the higher terrain of the Northeast Mountains. Thermodynamic profiles now suggest that the column will largely support rain, or column wet-bulbing down to freezing to produce wet snow rather than freezing rain. While dynamic cooling and isentropic lift could support a brief wintry mix at the onset, the predominant mode at the highest elevations appears to be a transition from cold rain to wet snow, with accumulations generally limited to a couple of inches on the highest ridges. Elsewhere, a cold rain is expected.

Hydrologically, soil moisture remains elevated due to recent snowmelt. The combination of saturated soils and the forecast 0.50-1.00 inch of rainfall across the southern zones introduces a risk for isolated nuisance flooding. Regarding river ice, most waterways in the south are now open. While some ice remains on rivers in the north, the minimal QPF forecast for those basins, combined with relatively low streamflows, suggests the risk for significant ice jams is minimal, but not zero.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the departure of the Sunday system, mid-level heights rise as ridging builds across the Southeast US. This pattern shift will usher in a period of dry weather starting Sunday night and continuing through Tuesday. A distinct warming trend will accompany this ridge. NBM deterministic temperatures and MOS guidance support daytime highs reaching into the 60s across the lowlands from Tuesday through Friday. This is a deviation from climatological normals and will aid in further drying of regional fuels as Spring fire season approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upper-level flow pattern becomes more progressive by midweek. A weak northern stream disturbance is forecast to transit north of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, potentially dragging a moisture-starved front through the region. This may generate light rain showers, primarily across the northern half of the CWA. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten, resulting in breezy conditions even in the absence of significant precipitation.

By late week, forecast confidence decreases as global models diverge on the evolution of a deep trough emerging from the Rockies. There is potential for surface cyclogenesis over the central Plains that could lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes, bringing another round of precipitation and potentially breezy conditions to the Ohio Valley heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours and into early Sunday morning under the influence of high pressure. Winds will remain light and variable.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate by Sunday morning as precipitation moves into the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 02/14/26 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions are likely Sunday, particularly in the mountains and southern coalfield before improving to VFR Monday. Restrictions may return Wednesday night with a passing disturbance.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.