textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Elevated fire weather concerns for some areas this afternoon and possibly Friday. A fire weather statement has been issued. Updates for rain chances Friday/Saturday. Aviation forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated fire weather danger today and Friday.

2) A cold front crosses Friday night into Saturday with some rain chances along with its passage. Next chances for widespread rain possibly next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Increased risk for fire weather this afternoon and evening due to very dry RH values between 20 and 30 percent and wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph. The lowest end of the RH range and the higher end of the wind gusts will occur across our Ohio counties and some of the central and northern lowland counties in West Virginia. A fire weather statement has been issued for portions of the aforementioned area after collaboration with neighboring offices and state forestry contacts. This statement will remain in place until 8 PM tonight.

Caution should be used outdoors this afternoon with any open burning and machinery that may throw sparks. Properly dispose of any cigarettes and follow any local burn laws that may be in place.

RH values are expected recover tonight, but conditions tomorrow look just as dry and winds will be breezy at times. Fire weather headlines may be needed once more tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cold front approaches and crosses from the west Friday night with fleeting chances possible along it. The air column will still be very dry so much of the rain will likely evaporate, but light rainfall amounts generally less than 0.10" will be possible, mostly across the northern lowlands and southeastern Ohio.

Behind this front, drier weather resumes for the rest of the weekend with a stark warming trend taking place starting Sunday. Temperatures look very warm to even hot Sunday through Wednesday. Chances for widespread rainfall and maybe a few thunderstorms are possible with this more summerlike pattern and added crossing of disturbances.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period under high pressure. Skies will be mostly clear with FEW mid to high-level (10,000 and 35,000 feet AGL) clouds crossing over this afternoon.

Winds will be SW'rly this afternoon and evening sustained between 4 and 10 knots with gusts between 15 and 20 possible at times, especially across SE'rn Ohio and N'rn West Virginia. Winds will slack off around and after sunset, but expecting breezy conditions to return again tomorrow afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR ceilings possible Friday night into Saturday morning with a cold front passage and light rain chances.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.