textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated showers are possible during the day on Thursday, while the chance for showers Friday night has increased slightly, with even a few rumbles of thunder possible.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A more tranquil weather pattern continues for the balance of this work week with a steady warming trend. Isolated showers are possible during the day on Thursday.

- 2) The chance for showers increases Friday/Sunday nights in association with approaching frontal boundaries. Well-above normal temperatures over the weekend give way to cooler temperatures for the start of the new work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure east of the area will provide return flow today, resulting in a significant warming trend over this time yesterday, albeit still below normal. Highs today will generally top out 10-15 degrees below normal, with 40s across the lowlands, while upper 20s and 30s in the mountains. Weak isentropic lift could result in a sprinkle/flurry here/there today across the lowlands, with perhaps a few ISOLD snow showers squeezed out along the higher terrain of the northern mountains early tonight, with little to no impacts expected. Regional 12Z RAOB soundings depict a significant dry layer from H800 to H700, which should result in much of this remaining just virga today into tonight.

A similar set up tomorrow results in a more realistic chance for ISOLD showers making it to the surface across portions of the forecast area, with 20-30% PoPs coded in. Highs on Thursday will be close to 15 degrees warmer than today, with high temperatures on Friday potentially pushing 70 across the western lowlands amid dry weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern will become slightly more active heading over the weekend as a pair of cold fronts, one Friday night and another Sunday night, approach the area. The front on Friday is slightly weaker and may stall north of the area or wash out across the forecast area, bringing the chance for scattered showers Friday night and potentially a few rumbles of thunder, but perhaps having no significant impact to the ongoing warming trend. On the other hand, there is high confidence that the front on Sunday night (into Monday morning) will cross through the CWA, bringing another round of light showers and ushering in a much cooler start to the new work week. Temperatures on Monday will be near or slightly below normal, with highs progged in the upper 40s and 50s across the lowlands. In between these fronts, mainly dry weather is expected during the day on Saturday and Sunday, with the new work week starting out mainly dry outside of lingering/exiting showers southeast of the Ohio River on Monday. Sunday will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the 70s across the lowlands, perhaps low 80s in some locations.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions can be expected through most of the TAF period, although some MVFR ceilings can not be ruled out in northeastern West Virginia on Thursday.

Light southerly winds will gradually become southwesterly. Brief low-level wind shear could occur overnight at a few sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief low-level wind shear could occur overnight at a few sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.