textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exist for the entire area through Friday morning.

A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of NE Kentucky, SE Ohio, and most of West Virginia through Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and along the Ohio River on the WV side as well today and tonight.

- 2) Flooding concerns: Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall area wide through tonight. Locally heavy rain could lead to minor nuisance flooding, particularly in a heavier thunderstorm, and in the mountains where there is still residual snow and ice melt amid unseasonably mild weather. A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of NE Kentucky, SE Ohio, and most of West Virginia through Friday morning.

- 3) A pattern shift to colder weather will arrive over the weekend, with light snow showers possible Sunday into Monday, as lake- effect moisture flows into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, and a mid/upper-level low crosses and generates a potent offshore storm.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A surface low-pressure system located over the central states will deepen as it moves north-northeast into Lake Michigan by Friday morning. Meanwhile, a warm front will slowly lift north across our area through tonight, followed by a cold front arriving early Friday morning.

Parameter evaluation suggests favorable dynamics for triggering thunderstorms this afternoon. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, PWATs around 1 inch (97th percentile), MLCAPE reaching 1,000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear exceeding 50 to 60 knots are expected. These parameters will likely sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds. In addition, freezing levels around 9,000 to 10,000 feet will allow for large hail to develop within the tallest storms.

By this evening, the cold front will approach from the west, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots. Slightly stronger dynamics will emerge, with deep-layer shear exceeding 75 knots and SRH reaching 500 m2/s2. This second batch of convection may produce additional severe storms featuring damaging winds, large hail, and a few brief spin-ups, lasting at least through midnight. Gusty southerly winds will increase to 25 to 30 mph Friday afternoon before gradually subsiding Friday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across NE Kentucky, SE Ohio, and a tier of counties east of the Ohio River in West Virginia through tonight. The probabilities for all three severe weather hazards (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) are indicated at 5%, 5%, and 2%, respectively.

During this time, the area will reside in the warm sector of the system, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures tonight into Friday. A reinforcing cold front will then replace the warm, moist air with a cooler, drier airmass, resulting in more seasonable temperatures during the day Friday, and colder than normal temperatures by Friday night into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flooding Concerns: Although overall QPF amounts ranging from a half- inch to one inch generally do not pose a significant hydrologic threat, stronger, heavier thunderstorms this evening could produce quick bursts of rainfall. These intense rates may lead to localized ponding or rapid water rises, particularly in areas with poor drainage and already saturated soils. Additionally, locally higher, terrain enhanced rainfall amounts, combined with residual snow and ice melt amid unseasonably mild temperatures, could result in localized, minor high-water issues. Therefore, decided to issue a Flood Watch for portions of SE OH, NE KY and most of WV through Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Once the current storm moves out to sea, northwest winds will drag moisture all the way down from the Great Lakes into the region. Expect at least light snow accumulation as this moisture is forced up into the higher terrain. The heaviest, most impactful snow will fall on the wind-facing mountain slopes that get hit directly by these lake-effect bands.

Snow across the lowlands will be mostly spotty. Any real accumulation in the lower elevations will only happen if specific, narrow bands of lake moisture manage to stretch that far.

A colder airmass filters in behind Friday's cold front, followed by a large, deep pool of cold air plunging in from the northwest on Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures will plummet from Saturday through Monday, dropping well below normal by the second half of the weekend.

The chill will hit rock bottom early next workweek. With Monday Highs: Mid-30s in the lowlands, and only in the 20s in the mountains. Lows Monday night will plummet to around 20 degrees in the lowlands, and down into the bitter teens in the mountains.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Although most sites remain VFR at present, periods of MVFR or worse conditions are expected to develop as rain showers and thunderstorms continue to progress across the area overnight. Restrictions will improve in the wake of a cold front, with a return to area wide VFR anticipated to occur mid to late morning.

LLWS may be possible overnight, with some strong gusts occurring in storms. West to southwest winds are expected to strengthen during the day, with 25-35 kt gusts possible across the area. Winds should then start to ease after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers, thunderstorms, and associated restrictions could vary from the forecast. Timing of improvement to VFR may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 02/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M H H M M H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H L H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H L H M M H M H M H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible in snow and low ceilings, particularly across the mountains from Saturday night through Sunday, possibly Monday too.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>008-013>020- 026>032-039-040-517>526. OH...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.