textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

540 AM... Aviation discussion update.

334 AM... Updates to the wintry mess which is still expected Monday into Tuesday. Higher confidence for light accumulating snow across the mountains and ice accumulations.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Despite model disagreement, snow and freezing rain could cause impacts Monday into Tuesday.

- 2) Daily rain chances expected behind this system. Hydro issues may crop up by end of the week due to rainfall and snow melt.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Shortwave disturbance brings chances for rain this morning. Brief reprieve expected today and tonight ahead of another shortwave, which brings chances for rain, snow, and freezing rain Monday into Tuesday. Models still disagree on timing and extent of where the most ice or snow may occur, but there is higher confidence for ice accretions across the mountains Monday night into Tuesday. Some minor impacts to the morning commute are possible area wide with slick roads and a flash freeze taking hold. Impacts become confined to the northeastern mountains Monday evening and Tuesday morning as most other locations will have switched over to all rain by Monday evening.

Currently going with a middle ground solution of between 0.10" and 0.20" being possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially in the Greenbrier Valley of Pocahontas and the lee side of the mountains. Strong cold-air damming and a warm nose aloft will force a switch over from snow to freezing rain. Some models predict a glaze across the coalfields and northeastern KY early Monday but this is of lower confidence.

Light snowfall between 1-3" is a solid bet across the higher elevations above 3,500 feet in the northeastern mountains. Outside of the mountains, confidence in snow accumulations outside of this area are very low with timing and temperatures being a conflict for anything more than half an inch at most across the rest of the area.

The GFS continues to hammer home an earlier start, but has come down some on amounts across much of the area. It does show a stripe of 1-3" across OH, but thinking this may end up farther north, outside of our area. This model does however show a crippling ice event(0.25-0.50" of ice accretion) setting up across the Greenbrier Valley due to the very strong cold-air damming. This would impact SE Pocahontas County.

EURO, Canadian, NAM, and ICON models all give a later start time and show less snow accumulations for our area altogether. The NAM and Canadian however do show a similar ice event for the Greenbrier Valley like the GFS and even have some accumulations across the Tri-State and Ohio River Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the expected wintry weather we can expect more ripples of energy moving through the rest of the week leading to daily chances for rain. Highest likelihood at this time looks to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, then again Thursday night into Friday with a more hefty trough and low pressure center. There are slight chances for thunderstorms later this week into the weekend.

The marginal risk for excessive rainfall mid week remains mostly out of the area. Will have to monitor for hydro issues with portions of Ohio, northeastern mountains and the northern lowlands of West Virginia slated to pick up over an inch of rainfall through Wednesday. Snow melt across the mountains may add to this threat.

A warming trend is in store starting Tuesday into the weekend. Some locations in the lowlands could reach the upper 70s and maybe even 80 degrees Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A stalled front across the area will push southeastward this morning allowing for some MVFR CIGs to overspread the area, otherwise VFR will be common. Some light showers are moving west to east across the central lowlands and coalfields towards the mountains, but models show these tapering off by ~17z.

Afterwards, a bit of a drier spell will occur this afternoon and into tonight and VFR will return for many sites, especially those outside of the mountains. SCT to BKN skies at lower level(1,500-3,500 feet AGL) will persist until mid-afternoon when heights rise and skies clear from NW to SE. BKW and EKN may hang onto BKN/OVC and lower CIGs longer and this is predicted by a few models.

Winds will be light (4-10kts) with a NW to N'rly direction through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain showers this morning may vary from the forecast. CIGs may fluctuate between MVFR and VFR this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 03/01/26 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR conditions likely at times Monday morning through Monday afternoon with snow and rain, then with freezing rain in the mountains Monday night into Tuesday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.