textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Changed flurries and snow showers lingering behind passing front tonight to drizzle or freezing drizzle. POPs were increased in the northeast mountains from today to Thursday to account for lingering upslope snow after frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Periods of drizzle or freezing drizzle along the mountains this morning through the afternoon. A Winter Weather advisory is in place to cover this hazard.

2.) Robust system for the weekend bringing rain across the lowlands and some snow in the mountains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Light wintry precipitation will continue into Thursday in the northeast mountains from a moisture flux from the Great lakes. Upslope snow could fetch a few inches of snowfall amounts in the highest peaks and ridges and then freezing drizzle may glaze the same area with a coating of ice although accumulations should be very little creating low impacts to roadways and sidewalks. A winter weather advisory is in place for the areas of southeast Webster, northwest Pocahontas, northwest Randolph and southeast Randolph counties. This will be in effect from 3am today until 3pm.

Snow and freezing drizzle due to a shallow moisture layer is expected with total accumulations up to one inch with isolated higher amounts in the peaks and ridges as previously stated. Ice accumulations of a few hundreths of an inch is possible within the advisory area with winds gusting as high as 40mph. This could cause slippery road conditions and the hazards could cause impacts on the morning commute, possibly the afternoon as well but the probability is relatively low on causing significant impacts at this time.

Slow down and use caution just in case while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 511 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for WV.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Confidence in models are increasing on bringing in a high pressure system to the area by end of week and for the greater part of the weekend. Quiet and dry conditions should persist amid the high pressure system. This will make way to a robust system out for the southern stream which models have another wave of low pressure splitting off and riding up along our mountains. the Main feature will head straight east out to the Atlantic. This will add plenty of rainfall across the lowlands and along with the melted snow pack grounds which should be saturated still by then to possibly provide the potential for some isolated flooding. Especially for low lying flood prone areas in our CWA.

This aforementioned wave of low pressure splitting off will take a Miller B type track from Sunday into Monday. This will make an all rain regime across the lowlands and mainly snow across the highest elevations, but since temperatures will be above freezing during the daytime a wintry mix is more likely hindering snow amount potential.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A mix of VFR/MVFR with the passing cold front. On the backside, there could be lower stratus but should only get into the eastern sites as some instances of IFR. The other sites will endure MVFR CIGs before scattering out by the late afternoon.

Winds will generally shift out of the west to a more northwest component after frontal passage. By this afternoon elevated northwesterly flow will dominate with some gusty conditions during the afternoon and evening with winds getting into the upper teens and low 20s for wind gusts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR restrictions associated with low stratus may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 02/11/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with snow showers in/near the northern mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ522-523-525-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.