textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers continue through the overnight hours ending by early Tuesday morning before sunrise. Additional accumulations remain light less than an inch or two in the higher elevations.

- Widespread windy conditions return Tuesday, with high winds possible (25-45%) near Cody and Dubois. - Well above average temperatures in place starting Tuesday into the weekend, with record-breaking heat expected from Wednesday onward. Some locations east of the Divide could have the earliest 80 degree day on record.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be in place over central and southern portions Wednesday, becoming more likely and widespread Thursday into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1248 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Temperatures are recovering well this afternoon, as most cloud cover is starting to thin and move east. Remaining precip is confined to the higher elevations of northwest WY currently, which will continue through around midnight tonight. Expect another 1 to 2 inches of light snow mainly above 8000 feet. Otherwise remaining forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

High clouds continue to stream over the CWA this morning, which should limit any fog development. Additionally, dewpoint depressions are somewhat large (5 degrees or more) and indicative of the drier airmass in place. Will continue to watch through the rest of the night, but confidence remains low at this point.

Cold temperatures this morning (ranging from the single digits over Natrona/Johnson counties and the Upper Green River Basin to the middle 20s in Sweetwater and southern Lincoln counties) will gradually rise through the morning with afternoon highs in the 40s to lower 50s, marking a 40 degree swing for some locations. This will easily melt any remain snow from Saturday night. West to northwest winds, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph, will be in place across the I-80 corridor this morning, spreading into the upper Green River Basin through the afternoon. Similar winds, with gusts up to 45 mph will occur in the upper Wind River Basin during this time as well. Light snow will also develop over northwestern portions this morning as Pacific moisture rounds the ridge and moves over this area within the northwest flow pattern. The western slopes of the Absarokas along the eastern edge of YNP, the Tetons and Togwotee Pass will have accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through tonight. Locally higher amounts up to 8 inches will be possible in the higher peaks.

The story from Tuesday onward will be the above normal temperatures as a high center begins to move over southern CA. This high center will slowly track eastward over the Desert Southwest and the Four Corners through Saturday. The high center will start as high as 591dm (at 500mb), strengthening to 594-597dm by Thursday over the Desert Southwest. This is very anomalous for this time of year and can expect highs in the 60s and 70s by Tuesday. The gradient will tighten again Tuesday, with northwest flow aloft remaining in place. 700mb winds will increase to 40-60kt for much of the CWA. High winds are looking likely again in the Cody Foothills and the Wind River Basin, as models prog 700mb winds of 50-60kt off the east slopes of the Absarokas and the Upper Wind River Basin. For now, model guidance is keeping winds for most areas in the 35 to 45 mph range Tuesday afternoon. Cody and Dubois have the highest chances for 60+ mph, ranging between 25 to 45%. Will hold off issuing any High Wind Watches as a result.

Although the influence from the PFJ gets shunted northward as the high center moves over the Desert Southwest, winds continue to be a concern Thursday and Friday. The conditions that will lead to the record heat will also allow for 700mb winds of 25 to 30kt to mix to the sfc, resulting in wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also continue, with critical RH values being more widespread from southern Lincoln to southern Johnson County, including the Wind River Basin and southern portions of the Bighorn Basin. Several locations could reach 80 degrees Thursday and Friday, which would be the earliest 80 degree day on record by about 4 weeks. Here are some dates for reference: Casper - April 11; Lander - April 11; Worland - March 28; Riverton - April 23. These conditions are likely to continue into Saturday, as the high begins to weaken and the ridge flattens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions for the entirety of the period at all locations. Some lingering light rain around JAC with some low but VFR ceilings for the first couple of hours of the period. Otherwise, mid to upper level clouds throughout across the entire CWA. Winds will remain elevated overnight at RKS/RIW with all locations picking up by 17Z with daytime heating and mixing to the surface. Peak winds at COD/RIW/RKS up to 35kts with all other locations 25-30kts. Winds diminish after around 01Z with radiational cooling but remaining elevated at RIW/RKS once again into the overnight hours Tuesday night.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to start Wednesday, as unseasonably warm/record temperatures continue from Tuesday. Additionally, RH values are expected to become critical in portions of zones 279, 280, 283 and 289. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will occur in these zones, as well as 276, 277, 278 and 281. Critical RH values will become widespread across much of the Casper and Cody Dispatch zones Thursday and Friday, with similar winds expected each day. These conditions could also return for Saturday.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.