textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak weather system will bring a gusty wind to much of the area today. A stray shower can't be ruled out across northern Wyoming.

- Dry and mild weather returns Wednesday and lasts through at least Friday. Breezy conditions may return Friday.

- The next weather system approaches Saturday into Saturday night with the next chance of showers. Rain and snow amounts look to remain on the light side right now, and largely confined to western Wyoming.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

The general rule of thumb this year is that it has been a very warm calendar year, and in some locations back to last autumn. And, this will be the rule over the next several days as well. If you want to see some statistics on this, we will have a post on our social media pages on how warm it has been a little later this morning. In the meantime, back to our regularly scheduled forecast discussion.

A weak shortwave is now working its way through Idaho, and will cross Wyoming today. The wave is rather moisture starved, with most of any moisture remaining north of the area across Montana. There could be just enough lift for a stray shower across northern Wyoming through around 2 pm, but the chance everywhere except the mountains is less than 1 out of 5. Most areas will just see some passing clouds. The main impact most areas will see is a gusty wind. The 700 millibar winds are not sufficient for high wind (only topping out at around 30 to 35 knots). However, there will be a gusty wind for many locations, Much of the area has at least a 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph. The greater than 1 out of 2 chance of wind gusts over 50 mph is largely restricted to the higher elevations though. The peak wind would be early in the afternoon, during the time of maximum mixing and an assist from an 100 knot jet streak passing across northern Wyoming at this time. Wind should decrease after sunset as the shortwave moves away and the atmosphere decouples. And, it will be another day of mild temperatures m with many locations East of the Divide seeing high temperatures in the 60s.

Weather concerns will be few to none Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge axis moves over Wyoming, bringing another period of above normal temperatures and light to moderate wind. Friday looks dry as well, although the next approaching system from the west will tighten the pressure gradient and bring breezier conditions to the favored southwest flow locations like Casper. With relative humidity falling to around 20 percent, we could see elevated fire weather in the afternoon in some locations.

The aforementioned weather system mentioned in the last paragraph, a Pacific trough and front, should approach the area on Saturday. The current forecast shows some showers moving in later Friday night. This looks a bit too fast though, most showers should hold off until Saturday and especially Saturday afternoon and evening. This system will likely be weakening as it approaches with the main forcing remaining south of Wyoming. As a result, precipitation amounts should remain light. The only areas with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of over a tenth of an inch of QPF are the western mountains and the chance of over a half of an inch is basically zero at this point. With the westerly movement of the system, downsloping flow should dominate East of the Divide with only isolated to widely scattered showers (less than 1 in 4 chance).

Other than a few lingering showers in western Wyoming, mainly dry conditions should return on Sunday and last into Monday. Temperatures will cool somewhat behind the front. However, with the Pacific origin of the air, temperatures should remain near to somewhat above normal. Guidance is showing something potentially more interesting for the middle of next week. This is still a long way out though, and as we all know, a lot can change over the course of a week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 951 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

A dry weather system will pass through the area Tuesday, which will result in increased northwesterly wind Tuesday afternoon. Skies will mostly remain clear and conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period. Most terminals will have wind increase to between 10-15 knots, with gusts around 20 knots Tuesday afternoon. Stronger wind between 15-20 knots, with gusts up to 30 knots will occur at KCPR and KRKS Tuesday afternoon. The breezy northwest wind will linger into Tuesday evening at KRIW.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.