textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through Friday.

- Elevated fire conditions are possible (a 1 in 2 chance) in portions of central Wyoming as a gusty southwesterly breeze tries to develop.

- A weakening Pacific system may bring some showers to western Wyoming this weekend, while most locations East of the Divide should remain largely dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

For much of the fall, it seems like the weather has been lagging about a month behind what it should be for this time of year. For much of September, it felt like August. October was very warm as well and felt more like September for most of it. And for most of November so far, it has felt like October. And the next three days are no exception.

We still have a gusty breeze in portions of the area, but this should decrease by sunrise. The main feature of the next three days and even into the first part of next week will be a sharp ridge that will keep the weather more like October than November and keep snow lovers, like some in our office, rather disappointed at the lack of the white stuff that falls from the sky.

Temperatures will continue to average 10 to 15 and some cases close to 20 degrees above normal through at least Friday. Wind should remain light to moderate through Thursday. Areas prone to southwest flow, like Casper, will see an increased southwest breeze on Friday as the next system approaches the area. High wind is not expected. However, with humidity falling to around 20 percent in some locations, elevated fire weather will be possible in some locations. Critical fire weather looks unlikely though (less than 1 out of 4 chance) as humidity may not reach 15 percent and fuels are turning non critical in increasing numbers of locations.

The aforementioned weather system, a Pacific trough and cold front, will approach the area Saturday. However, with the ridge blocking it, the trough should weaken as it approaches Wyoming. As a result, chances of precipitation and especially amounts are lower than yesterday, especially East of the Continental Divide. Other than the mountains, there is less than 1 in 6 chance of showers East of the Divide this weekend with most locations seeing nothing. The only areas with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of a tenth of an inch of QPF or more are the western mountains, with no location having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of a third of an inch of precipitation through the weekend. The main impact will be some breezy conditions. It will also knock temperatures down a few degrees. However, with the Pacific origin of the air, highs should remain above seasonal normals.

Transitory ridging should then keep things mainly dry through at least Monday night. The next potential weather maker then moves in for the middle of the week, although there are differences in timing and exact path of the system. The system is approaching from the southwest, so it looks warmer so most snow would fall in the mountains. However, a lot can change over the course of a week. So, for the next week or so, we will continue to have October in November.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Thin, high (>20k ft) clouds move NW to SE across Wyoming throughout the day but bring no aviation impacts. Some mid-level clouds are expected over extreme NW Wyoming (Yellowstone) which may near KCOD in the early morning hours, but no precipitation expected. Winds will be breezy at KCOD through the overnight before decreasing by the late morning Wednesday. Light winds of less then 10 knots are forecast across all terminals with a breeze developing at KCPR by the afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.