textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above-normal temperatures continue through the weekend. Gusty winds across portions of central and southern Wyoming will lead to elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

- A system will push into northwestern Wyoming late Sunday, bringing accumulating snow to the western mountains through Monday. The heaviest snowfall is expected across the Yellowstone area and the Tetons. Winter driving conditions are possible across Teton Pass and Togwotee Pass beginning early Monday morning.

- Light rain or snow will be possible through Monday evening across lower elevations east of the Continental Divide. The best chances (40-60%) will be across the Bighorn Basin, Johnson County, and Natrona County.

- An active weather pattern will persist through most of next week, leading to cooler temperatures and several chances for precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Satellite imagery currently shows the area under the back end of this morning's shortwave. This brought some mid and high level clouds, and likely some flurries earlier across the Yellowstone area. These clouds will clear through early afternoon and most areas will have clear skies before sunset. Another wrinkle in the flow will bring some high clouds this evening, though no precipitation is expected. As mentioned below, the warm and dry trend continues through most of Sunday. The main change with this forecast update was increasing PoPs just a little earlier (to late Sunday afternoon) across far northwestern Wyoming as a leading shortwave arrives ahead of the incoming trough. Regardless, snow chances will increase in earnest later Sunday evening, with the heaviest rates expected Sunday night through sunrise Monday morning focused mostly over Yellowstone, the Tetons, and the western Absarokas. Latest accumulation amounts are in the 6 to 12 inch range. Travelers over Teton Pass and Togwotee Pass should be prepared for the return of winter driving conditions Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A couple more days of near-record highs with the dominant H5 ridge, but the end is in sight. Today will see another day of highs well into the 40s for western valleys, mid 50s for southern WY, and low to mid 60s for lower elevations east of the Divide, with several record highs in jeopardy. A weak shortwave passing to the north will not have much impact across the state. The main thing of notice will be increased cloud cover and gusty winds for higher elevations, and from KRKS to KCPR this afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. Sunday will be another warm day, with highs similar to today. Winds will again be gusty for higher elevations and from KRKS to KCPR.

Starting Monday, the more active pattern will pick up as the H5 ridge finally breaks down, initially bringing a quicker zonal pattern. Initially, Moisture will sweep into the western mountains, bringing some light orographic snowfall Monday morning. As a larger trough develops to the west, impulses wrapping around it will try to sweep into the northern Rockies, enhancing snowfall. Timing and placement of these smaller features has been difficult, and changes on a daily basis. Confidence remains high that there will be some snow spreading east of the divide into next week, but timing and location will stay held back until models better resolve these features and their interactions with local features. This breakdown of the ridge will also bring colder temperatures next week, with highs closer to normal but still reaching the 20s and 30s for western valleys and lower 40s to the east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 446 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through the entire TAF period. Mid to high level clouds decrease overnight and increase in coverage on Sunday. The gusty winds at KRKS are forecast to diminish by 01Z Friday. At KCOD and KRIW, there is a 70% chance of gusty 20kt to 30kt winds overnight into Sunday, with gusts persisting longer at KCOD. Winds increase and become gusty at KCPR early Sunday morning with an 80% chance of gusts around 25kts. All other terminals can expect winds to be 12kts or less throughout the TAF period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.