textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend mainly across central and eastern WY.

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring increased chances for precipitation across the region through much of the upcoming week.

- Chances for high wind and critical fire weather conditions continue to increase for central and eastern WY on Tuesday, ahead of a nearing disturbance that will bring prolonged snowfall to western WY.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Much of the previous discussion remains on track with models having come into good consensus in regards to the short term forecast. Near record-breaking temperatures are forecast through the next few days. Locations such as Casper and Lander are currently forecast to either approach or tie current record highs for Sunday and Monday. Highs look to range from the mid to upper 50s east of the Continental Divide and the mid to upper 40s west of the Divide both days. The main concern over the next few days remains elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. As a result of abnormally dry fuels, unseasonably warm temperatures, and gusty winds, the first Red Flag Warnings of the year have been issued for Sunday. These warnings cover portions of Natrona and Johnson Counties where the strongest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. Minimum RHs do look to be borderline. However, with the lack of precipitation, long duration of unseasonably warm temperatures, and gusty wind across this area these warnings seem warranted. Other locations east of the Divide will likely see elevated fire weather conditions as well.

The remainder of the forecast is mostly on track with a disturbance nearing the region for the start of next week. Models continue to show strong 700 mb winds over the area which could lead to high wind concerns mainly east of the Divide. There are early indications for wind gusts in excess of 50 mph during the day Tuesday. The best chances are across Natrona County (50-80%) with slightly lesser chances in the Wind River Basin and along the Cody/Lander Foothills (30-50%). As mentioned in the earlier discussion, critical fire weather concerns are looking more likely for Tuesday. The other aspect of this disturbance will be more snow over western WY. Overall, snow amounts for western WY have remained mostly unchanged. Chances continue to increase for a prolonged period of light to moderate snow through much of the upcoming week for western WY.

One thing to monitor over the next few days will be a recent trend among models for snow chances east of the Divide during the middle of next week. The previous discussion touched upon this and models have continued to show the potential for this to occur. However, there is still time for things to change, but with the way this winter has gone, many will take whatever they can get in terms of snow chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

One of the traditions we have in the humble Riverton weather abode, at least among the older, Gen X crew, is listening to countdowns of the Top 40 songs of certain weeks from the 70s through the 90s as we compose the forecast. And there are two things from these that remind me of the weather over the next several days. The first few days remind me of the classic R&B band that was popular in the 70s and early 80s, Earth, Wind and Fire. Then we transfer to Pat Benatar's early 80s hit "Fire and Ice". Read on for details.

High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through around Monday evening, with the exception of some isolated shower activity across the northwestern mountains. I know the forecast has showers starting Monday afternoon. However, the models are almost always too fast with Pacific systems this far out, so we think it will be dry through at least sunset on Monday. The main concerns, mentioned above, will be wind and fire weather. Temperatures will remain well above normal through at least Monday, in some cases more than 20 degrees above normal. Ridging will begin to flatten today, and with the southwest flow this will favor areas from Muddy Gap through Natrona County, we could see gusts over 30 mph at times this afternoon. This is combined with dewpoints in the teens. Complicating this is that fuels are now critical in the lower elevations of Natrona and Johnson Counties. I did give some thought to fire weather highlights. Relative humidity should remain above critical levels though, with only a 1 in 3 chance of humidity below 20 percent in Natrona County and basically zero chance below 15 percent. Wind in Johnson County is expected to remain light to moderate and other locations do not have critical fuels. I am a bit more concerned about Sunday though as 700 millibar wind climbs to 40 knots, an 100 knot jet moves over Wyoming and a shortwave brushes by to the north. This will increase wind in Natrona County with some gusts approaching 40 mph. Relative humidity is again the limiting factor though, with probabilistic guidance giving less than a 1 out of 6 chance of humidity below 15 percent. Monday could see elevated fire weather as well, but slightly less wind and somewhat higher humidity may ease concerns just a bit.

Starting Monday night we should finally shift to a cooler and wetter pattern. A Pacific trough and cold front will swing into Wyoming. This will bring a return of snowy conditions to western Wyoming. It is a fairly fast mover though, with most of the snow falling in a 12 hour period. As for amounts, many of the western mountains have at least a 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches or more in a 24 period, but the chance of 12 inches or more is very small, generally less than 1 out of 10. With mild temperatures at the onset, snow levels will start fairly high, from 7000 to 8000 feet before falling to the valley floors by morning. In the valleys, at this time there is less than a 1 in 10 chance of 3 inches or more although some accumulation will be likely. There should at least by a lull after that on Tuesday night.

Shifting to east of the Divide, concerns shift to wind and fire concerns. Things are setting up nicely at this time for a decent high wind event. We will have the approaching front and trough. We will have a tight pressure gradient across the area Tuesday afternoon, as much as 22 millibars from northeast to southwest. The 700 millibar winds climb to as high as 65 knots at 18Z Tuesday. As we head into the probabilistic realm of ensembles, a good portion of the area, with an emphasis on east of the Divide, has at least a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 55 mph on Tuesday. Some of the wind prone areas near Casper have at least a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 70 mph. This, combined with humidity remaining low, could also bring widespread elevated fire weather east of the Divide. The chance of critical fire weather looks low though, as slightly cooler temperatures should keep humidity above critical levels. As for precipitation, the chance looks low with the strong southwesterly downsloping flow. There is a small chance of showers post-frontal, but any amounts should be very small.

Another system may then approach for the middle and latter part of the week. There is more model spread on this and it being at least 5 days out, I won't try to pin down details. However, this could possibly, emphasis on possibly, be the best chance for some measurable precipitation east of the Divide. The latest model runs are indicating some lee cyclogenesis over Colorado, and this could turn mid and low level flow more easterly, bringing in some better moisture. There are also a few models showing a 700 millibar low over Central Wyoming, all things we need for precipitation east of the Divide. Again, it is still several days out and guidance can flip flop at this distance. However, at this point, this may be the best chance for measurable precipitation east of the Divide that we have had in a while. As for temperatures, we look to finally have a period of near to below normal ones with broad troughing over the western United States. However, with the flow largely from the Pacific, no frigidly cold air is expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1015 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals

Persistent 700mb moist westerly flow has kept extensive cloud cover across far west Wyoming and has provided widespread BKN040-050 ceilings Saturday morning. KJAC to remain BKN040-045 into the evening with intermittent periods of SCT040, with the best chance coming overnight. In general, BKN040-045 likely holds most of the forecast period at KJAC. Other terminals to be VFR with primarily high cloud cover. West surface wind 10-15kts prevails at KRKS through Saturday afternoon before decreasing around 01Z/Sunday. Mountain tops obscured across far west Wyoming.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals

All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period with only passing high clouds. KCPR sees gusty southwest surface wind 15-28kts through most of Saturday afternoon. Speeds remain 10-14kts overnight until around 12Z-14Z/Sunday when speeds steadily increase to 24G34kts by late Sunday morning. KCOD sees occasional 10-18kt winds during the period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1021 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue to look ever more likely for locations east of the Divide through the next few days. The main areas of concern remain across portions of Natrona and Johnson County. Fire weather conditions for the rest of Saturday look to stay near elevated criteria with winds gusting 20 to 30 mph and Min RH around 20 percent. Concern increases for Sunday as a result of stronger wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and Min RH ranging from 15 to 20 percent. Due to this Red Flag Warnings have been issued for zones 280 and 281 starting Sunday 1100LT until 1700LT. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns look to persist into the first half of next week. Tuesday remains the most concerning due to very strong winds in excess of 50 mph being possible.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ280-281.