textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above-normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- A weak system will bring light snow chances to far northwestern Wyoming tonight through Saturday morning.

- A pattern change on the way will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances early next week. The first round will arrive Sunday night, bringing snow to western Wyoming through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1243 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Little change in the forecast for the short term with warm and dry conditions continuing today. We did add some low (<25 percent) precipitation chances to the Yellowstone and Teton areas tonight and Saturday morning as a shortwave drops into Wyoming. This may bring a quick round of light snowfall before noon Saturday, with the best chances across Yellowstone; accumulations are expected to be minor, generally less than a half inch. After a weekend of near-record high temperatures, a pattern change is on the way that will bring moisture to the west beginning Sunday night. Questions remain on how much of this makes it to lower elevations elsewhere. Regardless, a more active weather pattern will bring cooler temperatures and several chances for moisture across the area through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

The last of the H5 ridge dominates overhead the next few days, continuing the pattern of much above normal temperatures for most of the state. Forecast highs today again reach the 50s and 60s east of the divide and well into the 40s for western valleys. Temps east of the divide will easily break daily record highs, and will be on the threshold of breaking monthly record high temperatures. Warm temperatures continue into Saturday and Sunday, with highs staying in the 50s and 60s. A small wave moves by to the north on Saturday, bringing a tighter pressure gradient across the state. This will bring a day of gustier west winds from Rock Springs to Casper. The warm and dry air along with gustier winds may bring some elevated fire weather concerns for a few hours during the afternoon.

The ridge finally starts to flatten and break down on Sunday, opening the door for a more active weather pattern for the upcoming week. Models and ensembles show the more active pattern bringing several weather systems through next week, bringing along a much better chance for snowfall for the mountains. The difficult part of the forecast is whether snow will reach into the lower elevations. Probabilities for at least an inch of snow still stand around 50% for most of central WY, but this has decreased with latest runs. The active pattern continues through the rest of the week into the weekend, so there are still multiples opportunities for precip expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 420 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR flight conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. A weak disturbance aloft traverses over the region this TAF period, bringing elevated or gusty winds to many terminals. KCOD and KCPR are forecast to have gusts between 20kts and 30kts after 04Z Saturday. At KRIW, there is a 50% chance of elevated northwest winds developing early Saturday morning. Given the pattern, opted to keep the mention of these elevated winds/15kt winds at KRIW in the TAF. Winds become gusty at KRKS late in the period. All other terminals can expect winds 12kts or less.

As the disturbance passes over the region, there is potential for light showers to occur on the mountains near KCOD Saturday morning. There is less than a 20% chance that light rain could reach KCOD so kept a VCSH at this time. Dry conditions are forecast at all other terminals.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.