textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Skies remain partly cloudy today, with highs again in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- An approaching weather system will bring a small chance for showers to the Absarokas and Bighorns this afternoon.

- The next weather system moves across the state Monday and Tuesday, bringing a good chance for rain and snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

The more progressive pattern continues across the northern Rockies during the next week. Today will start with some high clouds and warm temperatures reaching the 60s and 70s. The approach of the next weather system will bring enough instability today for some shower activity along the higher reaches of the Absarokas and Bighorns. While moisture has started to increase across northern WY in the past 24 hours, there still isn't a whole lot to produce much accumulation with showers today.

The main system itself will begin to impact Wyoming Monday morning, as a front sweeps in from the north. The first push should reach the northern WY/MT border right around sunrise Monday, and reaches around the Continental Divide by 18Z, before spreading southwest late in the afternoon. The front will bring along valley rain and mountain snow behind it, spreading southward through the day. Most areas should receive a good wetting rain, but some shadowing across the Bighorn Basin may keep amounts there to a minimum. With the front stretched along the southern WY border during the evening, best opportunity for rainfall would be focused from the Winds east along the Greens and Casper Mountain. Rain decreases late Monday night into Tuesday, but a brief secondary north wind push will keep very light rain/snow going for all except for the Bighorn Basin and the NW Parks during the day Tuesday. Current accumulation numbers have remained steady for a couple tenths for the southern 2/3 of the state, with the highest band near a half inch for the Winds east to Casper Mountain. Models have nudged amounts downward slightly since yesterday, and with last couple events the models have overestimated final totals, so current totals may be a bit high.

Once this system sweeps southeast early Wednesday, upper level pattern remains from the northwest, so while temperatures will return to the 60s and 70s, weak embedded impulses may bring light heating-of-the-day showers to the northern mountain through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Some light showers will be around the Absaroka Mountains near KCOD this afternoon, with a 20 to 30 percent chance a shower moves over KCOD during the afternoon. The entire area will see very light showers, or more likely virga showers, between 18z and 00z, with the last diminishing by 03z. Any site could see a gusty outflow wind up to 50 knots (high end) from these, though up to 30 knots would be most likely.

Tonight, a cold front moves in from the north starting around 12z. This brings a gusty north wind shift to locations east of the Continental Divide, with the strongest winds at KCOD and KWRL. Precipitation then follows, though the best chances hold off until just after the period, for Monday afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.