textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Indian Summer continues across western Wyoming through most of the upcoming week, with highs well above normal in the 70s and 80s.

- Warm temperatures, dry air, and breezy winds will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns through the week. Red Flag Warnings are in effect today for portions of central and southern WY.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

H5 ridging continues to push the main storm track well to the north across the US/Canada border, leaving most of the Rocky Mountain Region dry and very warm. With temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above normal, several record high temperatures are in jeopardy this afternoon. While ridging is in place, there is a weak trough passing by to the north, which will tighten the local pressure gradient. This will be enough to bring wind gusts up near 25 mph across the main wind corridor from RKs to CPR. With dry air already in place, this will bring fire weather conditions near critical this afternoon. Red Flag Warnings are already in place, and no adjustments will be needed there. The other note with this trough is that there's enough midlevel moisture to spark some virga showers early this afternoon across the northern tier of counties of WY. Chances for actual measurable precip are very low (<5%).

Tuesday will be similar to today, with ridging being the main feature, keeping temperatures well above normal. Winds will be lower, as the northern weather system moves east quickly, with relaxing gradient. There is another trough moving into Colorado from northern California during the afternoon, which may bring virga showers to the southern counties, but again, due to very dry surface air, chances for any accumulation remains very low (<5%).

The remainder of the week remains similar, with warm temperatures continuing under the ridge. The next considerable shift int he weather pattern still pointing to a deep trough digging along the Rockies this weekend, with colder temperatures and a much better chance for precipitation. As noted yesterday, models have been a bit quick bringing this trough in, with better chances leaning more toward Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 522 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Cloud cover will be limited to high cirrus above 20000 feet, while most areas will keep southeast winds 10kts or less. There may be some mid level clouds around KCOD later this afternoon, with some virga possible, but these will be isolated in nature. Winds may briefly gust 15 to 20kts around KCPR and KRKS this afternoon, but all winds will decrease after sunset, with L?V winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Increased southwest flow today, coupled with very warm temperatures and dry sfc humidity will lead to near critical fire weather concerns for portions of southern and central Wyoming. Red Flag Warnings are in effect from Sweetwater County northeast into Natrona County through 6PM.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ279-280-289-300.