textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Calm and quiet weather conditions today and tonight with little to no weather hazards.

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions return tomorrow through Monday as temperatures rise well above normal once again.

- Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for this weekend into Monday.

- A cooler and wetter weather pattern is poised to develop beginning Tuesday as several weather systems will move through the region back to back.

UPDATE

Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A calm Spring day has unfolded across the area as low clouds along the I-25 gave way to sunshine earlier this morning. Skies will remain mostly clear through tonight. While temperatures will drop again tonight they will not quite be as cold as last night, which ended up being a hard freeze for most locations. Although it has been very warm as of late, remember it is still March, so the growing season has not fully begun yet. The cooler temperatures today will not last as tomorrow through Monday will be abnormally warm once again. This will lead to more Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the area. The Fire Weather Watches that were issued last night have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings with the timing from noon Saturday through 9 PM Monday. Conditions will improve a bit Saturday night and Sunday night as wind decreases overnight, but with poor humidity recovery the fire weather threat will not diminish entirely overnight. As such, have decided to keep the Red Flag Warnings in effect through the whole period from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening. In addition, Fire Weather Watches have been issued for The Bighorn Basin and Johnson County from noon to 9 PM Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low clouds will remain in place over areas east of the Divide this morning. It will be a chilly start (given the recent trend of above normal temperatures) this morning with temperatures in the 20s to middle 30s. It will be a pleasant day with dry conditions, light winds and highs in the 50s to lower 60s (this is still slightly above normal for late March). The only downside will be high clouds streaming over the area from west to east.

Dry conditions will continue over the weekend as a broad flat ridge builds over the Northern Rockies. This will result in a persistent westerly flow aloft, which will also lead to a leeside trough over eastern portions of the state. This will tighten the pressure gradient and cause westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph over much of the CWA. Most of Johnson County and eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin will not be affected by these winds. Additionally, RH values will be critically low for most lower elevation zones Saturday and Sunday. Above normal to record temperatures will also return across the area. These conditions return for Monday as well, with winds increasing and becoming more widespread across the CWA as a trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. Chances for precipitation will increase over northwestern portions through the day Monday, with snow levels around 7000ft. Thus, will issue Fire Weather Watches for Saturday Sunday and Monday.

Chances for precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning will be mainly confined to western and northern portions. Snow levels will continue to drop, reaching at least 6000ft. Any snow that may fall in the lower elevations Monday night will melt after sunrise Tuesday morning due to the rising March sun angle. Otherwise, snowfall amounts in the northern and western mountains are rather light so far, ranging between 2 to 5 inches.

Dry conditions return for Wednesday, as this system will quickly exit eastward over the Central/Northern Plains. Models remain split with the next storm system from Thursday into next Saturday. Confidence continues to favor the ECMWF solution, which digs a longwave trough over the Intermountain West. This will increase southwest flow aloft over the Cowboy State Thursday, with increasing chances for precipitation Thursday and Friday as the base of the trough (with a closed low) bottoms out over the Great Basin. Will continue to keep an eye on this system with fingers crossed for the much needed precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 350 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions throughout the entirety of the period. Abundant high clouds throughout the period spilling over the broadening upper level ridge to the southwest. Light winds overnight into Saturday morning 10kts or less. An increasing gradient coupled with daytime heating and mixing to the surface will see increasing winds after 18-20Z Saturday. Gusts up to 20-25kts will be common, but highest at RKS up to 30kts after 21Z, all through the end of the period. No other weather elements are expected at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions expected to return Saturday and last through Monday. West winds with gusts of 30 to 35 mph will occur for much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 35 to 50 mph Monday ahead of a cold front. RH recovery will be fair to poor Saturday night and Sunday night. Precipitation chances will be confined to far northwestern portions of the state during the day Monday, with snow levels around 7000ft. The front will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ276>280-283-285-287-289-300.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ275-281-282.