textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool temperatures remain today, especially for locations with no wind. The trend will be for warming temperatures this week, with above normal temperatures by mid-week.

- A few weak weather systems this week could (15 to 30 percent chances) bring light snow chances, mainly for mountains.

- The long range outlook is favoring a mild and dry start to February.

UPDATE

Issued at 1124 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

No major changes needed with this update. Transitory high pressure brings a period of warm and generally dry conditions to start the week. Have kept high temperatures lowered today for basins and valleys with no wind, but even the current temperature forecast could be a bit high. Locations with gusty winds see decreasing speeds this evening and into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Another chilly start to the day across much of the Cowboy State. The coldest temperatures are lingering over lower lying basins where a fresh light coating of snow fell Sunday. This includes portions of the Bighorn and Wind River Basins along with Jackson Hole and Star Valley. Temperatures this morning in these locations have really bottomed out with values ranging from 0 to -10F. Worland has been the cold spot over the past few days with temperatures this morning sitting around -13F. Other locations such as the Cody Foothills and parts of Johnson and Natrona Counties are seeing temperatures gradually warm. This is due to breezy winds allowing warming 700 mb temperatures to mix down to the surface. One interesting example of this is Casper where in town temperatures are in the 20s with winds gusting around 30 mph. While to the east in Douglas temperatures are currently sitting around -20 with little to no wind.

The variation in temperatures will likely continue through the daytime today with winds greatly influencing the degree of warming that will occur. Due to this, forecasting how warm some locations get today may be quite tricky. Highs Monday will range from the low 20s to possibly upper 30s nearing 40 in some locations. The warmest temperatures are forecast to be across Johnson and Natrona County along with portions of the Cody Foothills and Southern WY. These locations also are forecast to see the strongest winds of 20 to 30 mph with periodic gusts near 40 mph. If these winds make their way into the Wind River Basin and the Bighorn Basin then temperatures there would likely also warm. However, the current thinking is that winds may not be enough to get these locations to mix, leading to cooler highs. Temperatures will likely moderate by Tuesday with above normal temperatures returning to nearly all of the state. Highs are forecast to get back into the mid 30s to mid 40s as a result of ridging building back in over the western CONUS. Mild and mostly dry conditions persist through the first half of the week.

As mentioned earlier, ridging once again builds back over the western CONUS. This ridge is not looking all too potent which may allow for a few weaker disturbances to move through during the week. However, these disturbances look to be very disorganized leading to minimal precipitation chances and if any precipitation was to occur, it would likely be mainly limited to the higher elevations. A more potent ridge looks to build in by the end of the week. This leads to the potential for well above normal temperatures to develop by the end of the month into the start of February. Early indications show highs possibly getting back into the 50s which would be nearly 20 degrees above normal. So unfortunately, after a promising period of more winter-like conditions, the all too familiar mild and mainly dry conditions might return for the start of February.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1006 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Dry and VFR flight conditions look to prevail the entire TAF period with northwesterly flow aloft. Most terminals will see relatively light winds. The exception terminals are KCOD, KCPR, KRIW, and KRKS. Confidence is highest (80%+) in gusty 25kt to 35kt winds occurring at KCOD, KCPR, and KRKS through 02Z at the latest. There is less confidence (around 50%) in northwesterly gusty winds occurring at KRIW from 04Z through sunrise Tuesday. Nonetheless, opted to put gusts in RIW TAF at this time. Otherwise, anticipate mid to high level clouds to move into the region after 00Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.