textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy north winds continue this evening, with lingering isolated light snow showers ending shortly after sunset.

- Temperatures gradually cool for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

- Friday and Saturday look to be the coldest days over the next week. Lows may range from below zero in some locations to the single digits elsewhere.

- Mainly dry and mild conditions return for the start of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1230 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

Not much to add in regards to the previous discussion. The front has begun to move across the state bringing with it scattered snow showers. These showers are currently moving through the Bighorn Basin and portions of Johnson County. Showers will continue to spread south but coverage looks to gradually dissipate the farther south they go. Increasing winds along with brief periods of moderate snowfall may lead to some difficult travel conditions especially across Johnson County and the Bighorn Basin this afternoon and evening. The only other noteworthy update regarding the forecast is the potential for some of the coldest temperatures of the season for the upcoming weekend. Models have started to show the possibility for some rather cold air making its way into the state in association with the frontal passage Friday. 700 mb temperatures currently range from -15 to -20C across central WY into the northeastern corner of the state. This would translate to lows possibly in the single digits to maybe below zero in some locations especially where snow cover exists such as western valleys. Probabilistic guidance currently shows many locations east of the Divide having a 40-70% chance of seeing lows below 5 degrees over the weekend. Colder lows below zero look more likely (50-80%) west of the Divide where snow cover exists. Temperatures looks to rebound by the start of next week as high pressure once again tries to reassert itself across the western CONUS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

There are certain milestones I watch through the first part of the year. Not being a winter lover, these are markers I use to see when winter will end (although I would take this one every time). Today is that we are a month past the solstice. However, we still have a long way to go, and today will be a reminder of that in portions of the area.

The first will today, as a cold front drops southward across the area. The air behind it is not all that cold though. It also has little moisture to work with. However, there will be impacts, especially to one portion of the area. And this is Johnson County. It will not be a long impact though, the only lasting around 6 hours, generally from around 10 am to 4 pm. First the snowy part. This looks to be the least impactful, almost all of the lower elevation locations have less than a 1 in 5 chance of an inch or more of snow, with only a small portion of the Bighorns having at least a 1 in 2 chance of 2 inches or more. The main impact looks to be the wind. This will be especially so in the favored northwest flow / cold advection locations. And this includes, obviously, Johnson County. Probabilistic guidance gives at least a 2 out of 3 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph there, as well as in some of the windier locations west of Cody and Highway 120. We did give thought to a high wind warning. However, the 700 millibar winds only top out at around 45 knots. In addition, this would be a brief time, mainly post frontal between around 12 and 3 pm. We will issue a Special Weather Statement to cover for this along with reduced visibility from possible blowing and drifting snow with the frontal passage. All snow should end shortly after sunset, with a clearing sky and chilly temperatures overnight.

Another cold front will then approach and move through the area on Wednesday. This one has even less moisture to work with and would only produce some snow showers over the western Bighorns. The main concern will again be strong wind. Most MOS guidance keeps wind below high wind criteria, but it will be blustery in the same locations much of Wednesday, with around a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph in similar areas as this afternoon. This system will also usher in a colder air mass, although the core of the cold air will remain east of the forecast area. The coldest areas will be Johnson and Natrona Counties, where highs on Thursday could be 20 degrees colder than today, although there is a spread in the model guidance. A third front then moves through on Friday, this one again dry although it will bring another shot of cooler air. However, temperatures should only average 5 to 10 degrees below normal, nothing out of the ordinary. Some guidance does show a bit of moisture overrunning the cold dome Friday night and Saturday, possibly bringing some light snow to southern Wyoming, but this is far from certain. Then starting later this weekend and into early next week, ridging looks to build across the area and bring a return to near to above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 449 PM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours for most locations. Lingering light snow showers should move out of the KCPR area by 21/01Z. Gusty winds decrease in the couple of hours after sunset, with lingering low- to mid- level clouds through about midnight over the mountains. Skies become mostly clear overnight, with thicker mid- and high- level clouds moving over the forecast area Wednesday late morning into the afternoon from both the northeast and the southwest. With NE winds east of the Continental Divide, southwest WY will again experience northwest winds from late morning into the afternoon with relatively light winds at KJAC.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.