textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Today, breezy west winds with highs in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Elevated fire weather conditions will be in place.

- A cold front moves through tonight, impacting locations east of the Continental Divide. Gusty north winds with the front and cooler temperatures with cloud cover through Saturday. A few showers are possible (20 to 40 percent) over northern Wyoming with the front.

- A warming trend occurs into next week, with limited to no rain chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Overall forecast remains on track. The main weather story is the incoming cold front tonight. The front stalls along the Divide, so impacts are kept to locations east of the Divide. Colder air and thick cloud cover keeps high temperatures Saturday on the cool side, with highs generally forecasted in the 60s. Showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, are possible for the Absarokas, Bighorn Basin, Bighorn Mountains, and Johnson County with the front tonight, with chances generally 20 to 40 percent, though higher to 80 percent for Johnson County. Showers could occur (15 percent) as far south as Casper and the Lander foothills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

IR currently shows mainly clear skies across the CWA with the cooler cloud tops well north into Montana and Canada. The main low that affected the area the past few days is now progressively shifted well east and north into Canada affecting the Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley with the main finger of the PFJ north of the US Rockies pushing into the upper Great Plains. The deformation trough extending west from the upper low will push to the south clipping the CWA Friday night that will drop a weak cold front east of the Divide bringing some weak shower activity after midnight into Saturday morning. Much of the coverage will be across the Bighorns and eastern counties (~60%) but some still possible for the Bighorn Basin to the Owl Creeks (~40%) before weakening as it moves further south. Thunderstorm activity will be limited to the higher terrain of the Bighorns where the better instability will be (100-200 J/kg) in regards to fire weather issues due to lightning but will be pushed out by mid Saturday morning. Higher elevation snow likely for the northern Bighorns where CAMs are showing a couple inches of accumulation but no impacts to the lower mountain passes.

Otherwise, Friday afternoon will see mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures from Thursday around 10 degrees. Breezy winds east of the Divide but nothing of note being at or below 20 to 25 mph. Behind the weak front Friday night, Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Friday with weaker winds but more northeasterly heading into Sunday as well. Warming trend Sunday through Thursday back into the mid to upper 80s east of the Divide and 70s to near 80 to the west. Isolated storms Sunday afternoon but limited in coverage (10-20%) for the Bighorns but dry expected through Thursday. This will be when the next system will affect the area as the deepening northwest flow allows for increasing divergence aloft. Models are not as consistent on precipitation coverage but something to keep an eye on going forward. Fire weather looks to be limited to elevated Sunday through Thursday even with the warmer temperatures and lower RH values, but wind looks to generally be weak to a slight breeze throughout.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 356 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Skies will remain mostly clear today with VFR conditions through sunset. Most terminals will continue to see a west to northwest wind this with gusts of 20 to near 30 knots through sunset. KCOD will see a sharp northerly wind shift around 23Z as a cold front pushes south into the area. This will reach KWRL around 01Z, weakening as it approaches central Wyoming between 04Z and 06Z. Lower clouds and showers will follow overnight, with MVFR ceilings at KCOD and KWRL between 09Z and 12Z and then at KCPR by 15Z Saturday. The best chance for precipitation impacts will be at KCOD and KWRL, though low confidence precludes more than a PROB30 mention. Conditions will begin improving late Saturday morning, with lighter wind and VFR ceilings through the end of the period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.