textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures are forecast this afternoon, especially east of the Continental Divide where highs in the 90s will be common.

- Mostly dry showers and thunderstorms are forecast (40%-60% chance) after 2PM/3PM, especially across the western half of Wyoming. There is potential for strong to severe wind gusts (55 to 60+ mph) in any shower or thunderstorm, regardless if any rain makes it to the ground.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected today through Friday with widespread minimum relative humidity values below 15 percent, gusty 25 to 50 mph winds, and above normal temperatures.

- A pattern change with cooler temperatures and increased precipitation potential is looking more favorable beginning late Saturday/early Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

07Z satellite water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge over the Intermountain West, with it's axis over the western Wyoming border. An upper-level low is also present on water vapor imagery just off the Oregon coast. The ridge will shift east through midday today as the upper low ejects towards the northwestern Montana/southern Canadian border. By the early afternoon, strong southwest flow will be present over Wyoming with an embedded shortwave and a slight uptick in mid-level moisture. Through the afternoon, the surface pressure gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. All this movement in the upper atmosphere and with the approaching cold front will bring heat, wind, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, and shower and thunderstorm chances to much of Wyoming today.

There is high confidence that this will be the hottest day of 2026 thus far for most, if not all, locations east of the Continental Divide. As the upper ridge shifts east today, 700mb temperatures will be in the 12 to 15 Celsius degree range and this will translate to surface temperatures near 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Wind will be present today, thanks to the approaching cold front, and aid in temperatures warming even more due to downsloping off the mountains. Locations such as Lovell, Greybull, and Worland are expected to be the hottest with highs near 95 degrees. Those west of the Divide will not see this hot of temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s, partly due to increased cloud cover as mid-level moisture increases in the southwest flow. It is important to note, that if cloud cover is a bit more widespread east of the Divide, temperatures may only peak in the upper 80s. Regardless if high temperatures are in the 80s or 90s, today's temperatures are greater than 20 degrees above normal for the middle of May.

Despite the uptick in mid-level moisture this afternoon, air near the surface will remain rather dry. Relative humidity values are forecast to bottom out in the 8 to 12 percent range this afternoon for most areas and in the 15 to 20 percent range across far west Wyoming. This low humidity, widespread gusty 25 to 40 mph southwest winds, and much above normal temperatures leads to another day of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Because fuels have been classified as not critical, no fire weather headlines will be issued. Fire headlines or not, burning is not advised today.

By this afternoon (2PM/3PM MDT), a potent shortwave, and the associated cold front, will begin moving over Wyoming. This support aloft will be enough for shower and thunderstorm development ahead of and along the cold front this afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will also be increasingly unstable ahead of the front, especially across western Wyoming, where there will be anywhere from 600 to 800 J/kg of CAPE and 30 to 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. This is enough signal for some strong to severe thunderstorms capable of at least 60 mph winds. This severe thunderstorm threat is maximized over western Wyoming due to where the "greatest" moisture resides (15% to 30% chance of 0.10" or more) during peak heating. The severe thunderstorm threat is highlighted well in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk. Model soundings are also showing widespread strong inverted-V soundings with dewpoint depressions of 50 to 60 degree Fahrenheit and cloud bases above 10,000 feet west and east of the Divide. This suggests that any shower or thunderstorm could produce little to no liquid and produce gusty 60+ mph downbursts and outflows. This is a prime example of a "Green Blob" afternoon across most of the area.

The cold front will have trekked east across the state by early Thursday morning. The cold front will have brought temperatures somewhat closer to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s and 70s. On Thursday a tight post-frontal pressure gradient will be present with a 60kt to 80kt jet overhead. This will translate to a windy day across the entire area with widespread 35 to 50 mph wind gusts on Thursday afternoon. This leads to another day of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions with relative humidity values in 9 to 15 percent range. The windiest locations will be over northern Wyoming, specially across the Absarokas and Cody Foothills, where 700mb winds of 35 kt to 50 kts look to develop. For wind prone areas along the Cody Foothills, there is currently less than 20 percent chance of wind gusts of 60 mph. However, higher elevations and wind prone areas of the eastern Absarokas have a 70 percent chance of seeing gusts of at least 60 mph. Chances of exceeding 70 mph across the eastern Absarokas drop to less than 25 percent.

Strong zonal flow looks to continue on Friday with an upper-level jet still overhead. An embedded shortwave looks to also trek across the area on Friday afternoon, aiding in windy conditions. Widespread winds of 30 to 45 mph can be expected Friday afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to in the 70s, thanks to 700mb temperatures around 5 Celsius. Dry air will still remain across the area with widespread minimum relative humidity values between 10 and 15 percent. This will lead to yet another day of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the entire area.

Ensemble guidance has been consistently signally a pattern change as early as Saturday afternoon. There is a reasonable amount of agreement among ensemble guidance that a longwave trough, and associated cold front, will slowly traverse across the Intermountain West in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The core of this trough looks to originate from near the Alaskan Panhandle. This means that this system will have more of a "cold punch" and more moisture. By Sunday and Monday of next week, high temperatures look to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs in the 50s. The potential moisture associated with this system will be welcomed considering how dry the year has been so far. There are many uncertainties with how this system will pan out, including specific timing, moisture content, and precipitation type. These questions will hopefully come to fruition over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the entirety of the period. Light winds and increasing upper level clouds overnight into Wednesday morning ahead of the next mid level trough that will push through the area in the afternoon. With that, winds will increase up to 25 to 30kts at all TAF sites. Scattered rain showers and a few elevated isolated thunderstorms likely after 20-21Z west to east with gusty outflow winds the main hazard up to 40kts. These will push east by 01-02Z west to east once again with mid level ceilings through the end of the period that will begin to lift overnight into Thursday as winds will be even stronger.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Temperatures today are forecast to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal with many locations potentially seeing record highs. It will also be very dry with widespread minimum relative humidity values in the 8 to 15 percent range. Mostly dry showers and thunderstorms are forecast after 2PM/3PM MDT, especially across the western half of Wyoming. Any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of gusty 55 to 60+ mph winds. Winds will also be gusty outside of any shower or thunderstorm activity through the afternoon with frequent gusts of 25 to 40 mph.

Temperatures cool slightly on Thursday and Friday with less than a 10 percent chance of any showers or thunderstorms. However, there is relatively high confidence in continued elevated to near critical fire weather conditions due to minimum relative humidity below 15 percent and gusty 30 to 50 mph winds.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.