textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snow persists through the day, with areas within the Winter Storm Warnings having a 70% to 95% chance of 6 to 12 inches of additional snow. Precipitation will largely fall as rain across the western valleys, with occasional periods of a rain/snow mix.

- There is high confidence in widespread gusty winds. There is an 80% to 95% chance of wind gusts of 50 to 65mph across central and southern Wyoming, especially this afternoon. Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be common elsewhere.

- More wind is expected on Thursday across the Absarokas, the Cody Foothills, and the Wind Corridor. There is a 85% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55mph over the Absarokas and in the Clark to Cody areas. Elevated to near fire weather conditions exist across parts of Central Wyoming on Thursday.

- Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Friday through Saturday morning with near to above normal temperatures. The next chances of precipitation arrive late Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

There are two key features present on 09Z water vapor imagery. The first is a fetch of Pacific moisture embedded within strong west- northwesterly flow and the second is a shortwave trough near the Montana/Canada border. The strong jet aloft is ushering the Pacific moisture into the region and will remain located over Wyoming today, bringing precipitation to the west and widespread wind. Expect temperatures today to be slightly warmer than yesterday due to more wind.

This abundant moisture, combined with favorable orographics, has brought heavy snow to the western mountains over the last 24 hours or so. Expect this moderate to heavy snow to continue through much of the day today across the western mountains. The current forecast reflects these areas, especially locations above 9,000 ft, seeing anywhere from 6 to 12 (70%-95% chance) inches through 5PM this evening. Thus, the Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 5PM for the Yellowstone National Park, and the Absaroka, Wind River, Teton, Salt River, and Wyoming Mountain Ranges. An additional 4 to 6 (70% chance) inches are expected across the Bighorn Mountains, including over Powder River Pass, through 5 PM this evening, so the Winter Weather Advisory also remains in effect. As for Jackson Hole Valley, the predominate precipitation type is expected to be rain with a 90% chance of temperatures remaining above 35 degrees F. Precipitation rates will overall be less today as drier air begins in infiltrate the low levels, so it is not likely that a prolonged period of snow will occur. Given that precipitation will largely fall as rain, and occasionally as a rain/snow mix, the Winter Weather Advisory for Jackson Hole Valley has been cancelled. The previously mentioned shortwave trough, and associated front, will traverse south across Wyoming this afternoon and evening and quickly cut available moisture off to the area. Light snow could linger over the mountains through the overnight hours with minimal accumulations.

As mentioned, widespread strong to high winds are expected today. The shortwave trough will be shifting south today and orient the core of the upper level jet to be directly over Wyoming with mean winds of 125kts to 140kts. Closer to the surface, westerly winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching shortwave from Canada. Wind gusts ranging from 35mph to 65mph will be common across most of the area today, with the greatest winds occurring between 10AM and 6PM. The strongest winds will coincide with the shortwave's vorticity maximum. Wind gusts of 50 to 65mph are most likely (80% to 95% chance) across the Wind River Basin, Natrona County, much of Sweetwater County, southern Lincoln County, and the eastern Wind River Mountains. Occasional gusts above 70 mph (40% to 70%) are possible in wind prone locations such as around South Pass and Outer Drive in Casper. High Wind Warnings are in effect today across these locations.

Northwesterly flow will be evident on Thursday behind the shortwave and as a ridge builds over the West Coast with little available moisture. Wyoming will be positioned in the left entrance region of an upper level jet to the south and in the right exit region of an upper jet to the north. This is a region where downward motion is favored, thus higher winds at the surface. The main story for Thursday is wind and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across parts of the area. Let's first discuss wind. A tight pressure gradient is expected across the entire area, especially over the Absarokas. Mean 700mb winds across the Absarokas are forecast to be anywhere from 50kts to 70kts, and with flow being more west to northwesterly, strong gap winds are forecast to develop in the Clark to Cody areas. There is a 85% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph and a 35% to 40% chance of gusts exceeding 70 mph. Given these probabilities, a High Wind Watch will be issued for the Absaroka Mountains and the Cody Foothills beginning Thursday morning.

Wind will also be present across the Wind Corridor due to 700mb winds between 30kts and 40kts. These winds are expected to translate to the surface, so frequent westerly gusts of 30 to 45 mph (80% to 95% chance) expected. Given deep mixing and a drier airmass behind today's front, relative humidities are forecast to fall in the 15% to 25% range across Natrona County, southern Johnson County, and across the Wind River Basin. These low relative humidities could even be too high as gusty winds could lower them more. It is important to note, that last weeks snow has been melting due to the warm temperatures and gusty winds so the top layers of ground could be more saturated. However, more drying is expected today. Given these lower relative humidity values, gusty winds, and dry fuels, elevated to near critical fire weather is expected for the aforementioned areas Thursday afternoon.

There is good consensus among ensemble members that unsaturated, northwesterly flow will be in place Thursday through Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to be near normal (upper 30s to low 40s) across western Wyoming and 10 to 15 degrees above normal (50s) elsewhere. The West Coast ridge begins to shift east and flatten late Saturday into Sunday as a trough and associated closed low develops over the Southwest. This will allow for Pacific moisture to make its return and bring our next shot at mountain snow and low elevation rain and/or snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals.

The back half of a system will continue to lead to MVFR conditions at times through the afternoon, with VFR conditions prevailing after 00Z. Strong westerly wind has been more widespread today; wind will persist through the afternoon and decrease by 03Z. However, KRKS will keep an elevated wind through Thursday morning. Light snow showers in the mountains are expected through this evening, but these are not expected to impact terminals. Skies will become mostly clear after sunrise Thursday. Frequent mountain obscuration is expected through around 12Z Thursday.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals.

Scattered rain showers are currently moving northwest to southeast across the area. The best chance for terminal impacts will be at KCPR over the next few hours. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with this activity. Otherwise, wind will be the more widespread impact, with most terminals seeing gusts of 30 to 40 knots through around 00Z Thursday. Lighter wind is then expected for most overnight as skies clear out. KRIW will be the exception as down- basin winds pick up around 09Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ001- 002-012-014-024.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for WYZ002.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for WYZ003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ008-009.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ015-016.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ017-019- 020-027>030.