textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions may lead to elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the state today and Friday.

- A nearing disturbance looks to bring widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms over the upcoming weekend. The best chances remain along the Continental Divide and areas east, especially across the Bighorns and Absarokas.

- The first week of summer is looking quite warm with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Not much to update regarding the forecast as warm and dry conditions will persist today into Friday. This will keep elevated to near critical conditions possible during the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/evening mainly over portions of far southwestern WY. Otherwise, the focus turns to the weekend, which looks to bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Models remain in good agreement with the best chances for precipitation being across central and northern WY. Locations such as the Absarokas and Bighorns currently look to have the best chances for wetting rains. The first week of summer looks to be on the warm side with chances for showers and thunderstorms possibly arriving by the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A pleasant day is on tap today, with seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The one negative aspect will be northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph over areas west of the Divide after 18Z. Fire weather conditions will continue to be elevated to critical this afternoon, with the highest concern being over southern portions where the aforementioned winds will combine with humidity values as low as 8%.

The rest of the forecast remains on track with little changes from previous packages. A ridge will build over the region from the west Friday, marking a return for temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Fire weather conditions will continue to be elevated to critical, with critical RH values (<15%) occurring across areas west of the Divide, including the western valleys, and central portions of the CWA. Mid to high clouds will begin to increase, in advance to the incoming remnant Pacific low. There is a 10% chance for a virga shower to occur under these clouds through the afternoon.

Chances for precipitation return for the weekend, as the Pacific low move over the region. Northern portions of the CWA look to have the best chances to receive any precipitation, with forecasted rainfall amounts trending downward slightly between 0.25" to 0.50" over Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rain remains possible from these storms, as precipitable water values of 0.60" to 1" are still forecasted. Precipitation chances could linger into Monday, as a Canadian cold front moves over the area. Dry conditions return to the region Tuesday, as a strong area of high pressure develops over the Desert Southwest. Initial indications suggest that shortwaves will move over the PACNW/Northern Rockies from Wednesday to Friday, keeping precipitation chances up and the ridge suppressed to the south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Conditions remain VFR through 18Z/Friday with little more than increasing high clouds tonight and Friday morning. West-northwest wind gusting 18-26kts increases early Thursday afternoon and continues through 01Z-02Z/Friday at terminals west of the Continental Divide. To the east, northerly wind gets a secondary surge Thursday evening with winds gusting 15-20kts before decreasing after midnight. By sunrise Friday, wind speeds will be 10kts or less across the forecast area.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue today, with critical RH values across southern zones, as well as zones 280 and 283. West-northwest winds, with gusts up to 30 mph will be confined to areas west of the Divide in the afternoon. Northeasterly winds increase over zones 280/281 after 1900, with gusts up to 30 mph. These winds will slowly decrease overnight tonight, ending by sunrise Friday morning.

Similar conditions return Friday, with westerly winds gusting up to 25 mph being mainly confined over areas west of the Divide. There will be a 10% chance for a virga shower across the area through the afternoon.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.