textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow dissipating into early Thursday morning across the Bighorns and eastern Bighorn Basin.

- Additional afternoon to late evening showers across northern counties Thursday and Friday with much less activity.

- Dry and warming trend over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Snow shower activity is diminishing across the eastern Bighorn Basin and Bighorns into the early Thursday morning hours. The longwave pattern continues to elongate the deep trough across much of the Rockies from Montana down to Baja California. As such, much less activity expected Thursday and Friday to end the work week. However, with the diffluence aloft persistent over the CWA, expect sporadic, isolated showers for northern counties with higher elevation snow and lower valley rain. The surface boundary along the Montana state line will sag a bit further south Thursday afternoon and evening giving way to this development by early to mid afternoon before dissipating towards midnight with nighttime cooling. Nothing of significance with this activity with limited accumulations outside the highest terrain above any passes. Warmer temperatures Thursday but a bit cooler slightly below average for this time of year on Friday behind the aforementioned surface boundary.

Similar conditions Friday as the cold front picks up a bit more steam as it starts to slide east and southeast with the movement of the upper level trough. With a much broader difluent flow aloft, expect limited shower activity east of the Divide mainly lingering into the overnight hours ending by early Saturday morning. The main finger of the PFJ extends into the upper Great Plains as ridging builds in from the west across the upper Rockies. Increasing convergence aloft will give way to mainly dry conditions and a warming trend for the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Strengthen mid and upper level heights allows for well above average temperatures for all of next week seeing 60s to even 70s once again east of the Divide and into the 50s to near 60 westward.

The upper level ridge looks to flatten out at the top due to the PFJ sagging a bit further south out of the Pacific northwest and through Montana. As such, some isolated chances for precipitation late Tuesday through early Thursday, mainly across northern sections of the CWA as the aforementioned PFJ remains to the north in Montana. Beyond that, strong model agreement on ridging building back in place and remain so through the following weekend. Long term outlooks depict warmer and dryer than average conditions to continue even beyond the middle of the month, more than likely through the end as well nearing the new month of May.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 915 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Shower activity continues to wane, with only a few light showers in the vicinity of KCOD and KWRL. These should be done by 06Z, so will not continue VCSH in those TAFs for tonight. VFR conditions remain for the remaining sites overnight into the day Thursday, with mainly high cirrus through the day. With the remnant front across far northern Wyoming, some shower activity is expected to redevelop late in the afternoon, with possible impacts again for KCOD and KWRL. Traded out the PROB30 group for a TEMPO group for the afternoon, with higher confidence of brief impacts at KCOD.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.