textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather continues this evening across southern Wyoming, with elevated to near critical fire weather likely elsewhere. Humidity recovery will be poor tonight.

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with the heat peaking over the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather will be likely each afternoon over the weekend. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Saturday and Sunday for most of western and central Wyoming.

- Some monsoonal moisture may return next week with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms, although details of coverage and timing remain highly uncertain at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Smoke from western US wildfires remains persistent across the state today, and will remain through most of the upcoming weekend. Air Quality will remain poor through the weekend, so an Air Quality Alert has been issued through Noon Monday. Temperatures still expected to reach near 100 again tomorrow, with gusty southwest winds reaching 25 to 30 mph for most of western and central Wyoming. With humidity already expected to fall to near 10 percent, this will keep the region in critical fire weather concerns. Have issued Red Flag Warning for all areas with critical fuels for Saturday, and also included Sunday, as gusty winds and very dry air remain through the rest of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This one of those strings of shifts when I feel like I have Deja Vu every night (the feeling, not the 1980 hit by Dionne Warwick). Basically, the weather is the same every night and the possibly hazards are the same every night. And this is continues tonight, with the heat and fire the concerns.

As for today, we will have very warm temperatures. However, there is one other thing that may have an impact, the smoke. It could help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than what would be expected. However, it still looks like a hot day with most locations below 6300 feet above 90 degrees for a high temperature. As for the century mark (100 degrees), the highest chance is across central Wyoming below 5000 feet, in places like Riverton, Shoshoni and even the lower elevations of Casper. We will likely have some record highs fall today. The other concern is for fire weather. Most guidance is showing somewhat lighter wind than today, especially East of the Divide. It is still rather gusty across southern Wyoming though, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 25 mph. With that, we will issue a Red Flag Warning for Sweetwater, Sublette, southern Lincoln and southeastern Fremont County. We also included the eastern Wind River Range. I did give thought to the Wind River Basin. However, wind looks too borderline at this time. Also, the weekend looks more concerning so we lift it out for now.

It is more of the same for the weekend, with strong ridging remaining over the Cowboy State. The very hot temperatures will continue, with 700 millibar temperatures climbing over 20 celsius for some locations. Saturday looks like the warmest day of the two, with most locations below 5500 feet having at least a 1 in 2 chance of highs of 100 or higher. Sunday still looks hot, but maybe a degree or two cooler. However, there does look to be more of a breeze this days, so the chance of critical fire weather also looks to increase. We may need more fire weather highlights this weekend, but will will punt the decision to the day shift for now. As for convection, the chance remains very low. A bit of mid level moisture may try to creep into far southwestern Wyoming on Saturday, but it is the mid level variety so the only activity may be a few virga showers given the very dry low levels. The chance may be slightly higher on Sunday afternoon but probably no more than 1 out of 6 and again, largely confined to southwestern Wyoming. And, we will likely continue to deal with areas of smoke that will reduce visibility at times.

As we head into next week, the ridge will begin to retreat to the south, and this should allow for somewhat cooler temperatures. However, temperatures still look to be above normal. It could allow for some more monsoonal moisture to spread into the area though. This morning runs did come in somewhat drier though, keeping the bulk of the moisture across Utah and Colorado with Wyoming only on the edge of the best moisture. As a result, coverage looks rather sparse next week with at most a 1 out of 3 chance for any given area. There has also been a lack of model consistency, so trying to pick out a more active day or placement of any convection is nearly impossible this far out. There some signals it could be more active next weekend, but a lot can change this far out. So, as for the next three days, it looks like more of the same. Near record to record high temperatures, little to no chance of rain and elevated to critical fire weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Smoke remains the main aviation impact through the period. TAFs will persist VFR, though occasional MVFR impacts continue to be possible and will need to be monitored for TEMPO additions. Otherwise, breezy winds late this afternoon will wane after sunset. Wind will pick up again around 18Z Saturday, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots at most terminals. With a little more moisture over the area, some cumulus buildup is expected Saturday afternoon across southwestern Wyoming. This will bring in a scattered cloud deck to KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS, as well as the potential for a few virga showers and associated gusty outflow winds.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A combination of humidity falling into the single digits and a gusty breeze will keep critical fire weather across much of southern Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Across central Wyoming, elevated to near critical fire weather is likely although critical fire weather is less likely due to wind being somewhat lighter. A combination of hot weather, low humidity and a gusty breeze will keep the chance of elevated to critical fire weather across much of central and southern Wyoming into the weekend.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until noon MDT Monday for WYZ001>020-022>030.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ140-275>283-285>289-300.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277>279- 288-289.