textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend and into early next week.

- Elevated fire weather is possible Sunday and Monday with strong wind and low humidity.

- The impactful system moves into the area Monday night into Tuesday, with snow in western Wyoming and strong to high wind east of the Divide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

I talked in a discussion a few weeks ago about the markers of the approach of Spring. We passed one a week ago, when we entered solar Spring. The sun is now back to the equivalent of a late October sun angle. We are reaching the next two markers. One is that average temperatures start going up by a degree every few days, accelerating as we head toward the end of the month. The second is not as fun. With the earlier sunrises, it is when I drive home after a night shift with the sun of horizon burning into my retinas. However, we have barely had a winter, especially by Wyoming standards. And this will continue for at least the next three or four days.

We will have a bit, emphasis on bit, of a weather maker today in the form of a shortwave moving through the area. As has been the case with many systems, it is rather moisture starved and will only produce a few snow showers over the northwestern mountains. As has been the case most of the winter, little or no precipitation will fall east of the Divide. We can't rule out some patchy fog in the western valleys as well, but nothing has formed so far. We will add it if things trend toward it.

Otherwise, ridging will control the weather through the weekend and bring mainly dry and mild weather. There could be a few showers in the northwestern mountains, but nothing impactful. We do have some other weather concerns though. The ridge will begin to flatten a bit as we head toward Sunday. With increasing 700 millibar wind, the favored prefrontal locations, like Casper, will begin to see some gusty wind. The chance of high wind gusts is small though, generally less than 1 out of 6 chances. Although it is February, we have had some fires already this month and more elevated fire weather is looking like a good possibility, as relative humidity falls toward 20 percent. These conditions look to repeat on Monday.

We may finally have somewhat of a pattern change as we head toward Tuesday, as a Pacific trough and cold front approach the west. Ensemble guidance is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches of snow across the western mountains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Areas east of the Divide will likely see little to no precipitation from this system due to downsloping flow. However, there is the possibility of high wind. This is a decent set up with the passing trough and 700 millibar wind rising to 60 to 65 knots on Tuesday. One thing working against it though is the best jet forcing will remain across Colorado. Nevertheless, many areas east of the Divide have at least a 1 out of 2 chance of 55 mph or greater wind gusts.

The transition to a wetter pattern is greater than 1 out of 2 for the rest of the week, with the 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing a greater than average chance of above average precipitation with a mean longwave trough across the Northern Rockies. However, with the flow more zonal, origin of the air masses looks to be largely Pacific. As a result, temperatures should only fall back to near normal to somewhat above normal. A couple other systems should bring some additional precipitation for the middle and end of next week. However, details on timing and amounts remain highly uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 351 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals

IFR conditions remain in the forecast at KJAC through about 17Z before ceilings slowly improve by 19Z, potentially as late as 20Z. There could be intermittent MVFR or VFR conditions early in the period, as lower ceilings have been slow to develop so far. KPNA/KBPI to see low- end VFR conditions, with a less than 40 percent chance at MVFR ceilings/visibility, through about 16Z. As for KRKS, lower ceilings and precipitation remain to the south of the airport. The axis of a persistent broad trough traverses the region by early Friday afternoon leaving improving and drier conditions by 18Z-21Z. West to northwest wind 10-18kt develops behind the axis passage and persists until sunset (01Z/Saturday) at all but KJAC. Mountain tops frequently obscured until 20Z, then will remain over the Tetons and Yellowstone NP through the rest of the TAF period.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals

All terminals to be VFR with generally only scattered mid/high cloud cover through the period. Central portions of the state will have SKC through much of the afternoon. The axis of a persistent broad trough traverses the region by early Friday afternoon. As a result, occasional gusty west to northwest wind surfaces at KCOD and KRIW late in the day and early evening. KCPR sees west- southwest 12-25kt surface wind from 16Z until around 01Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.