textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near-record temperatures prevail across western and central Wyoming for the next several days, with daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees above average through Saturday.

- Increasing southwest wind begins Friday and continues Saturday ahead of an approaching weather system. The windy, warm, and dry weather leads to elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across portions of central and southwest Wyoming.

- The next weather system arrives Saturday night and provides a better chance of precipitation through Sunday night. Much cooler temperatures allow for lowering snow levels and the potential for accumulating mountain snow and perhaps some lower elevation snow showers.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Short term forecast still on track for the next couple of days with above average temperatures and relatively light winds through Thursday. IR depicts mainly clear skies and a nice afternoon ahead through that point. Increasing fire weather concerns come Friday with the continued dry conditions but stronger winds as well. The weekend system has trended a bit earlier for western mountains for Saturday evening with mountain snow above 12kft and valley rain below. Accumulations at this point are not in consensus with models, but there is higher confidence if most of the area receiving at least a bit or precipitation at some point from late Saturday and into early next week. This is where models divulge from one another in how quick this system pushes east. Some have it through Tuesday and other Wednesday, but beyond that, ridging builds back in with the trend of dryer and warmer than average conditions to persist there after.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Consistent and strong ridging continues to dominate western and central Wyoming through the rest of the upcoming week. This will keep the very warm and dry conditions going, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Friday. Those leaves that are already changing colors are going to get confused for a while. There is a weak and dissipating midlevel trough moving out of the Great Basin into western Colorado, which may push a few virga showers into far southern WY this afternoon, but with surface dewpoint temps in the 20s, any precip that tries to fall will quickly evaporate well before reaching the ground.

Hints of a larger change start to show on Friday, as a larger trough starts to drop southward along the Pacific Coast. This will start to tighten up the surface gradient in the region, bringing a more typical windy Wyoming day. This along with the still very dry conditions will lead to near critical fire weather concerns during the afternoon. This pattern continues into the day Saturday as well. Longer term models still can't quite agree on the timing of the arrival of the trough this weekend, but are becoming more consistent in bringing it through nonetheless. Confidence in increasing in a considerable weather change with this system, bringing much colder temperatures, ample rainfall at lower levels, and the first decent amount of snowfall for the main mountain ranges across NW WY.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 955 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

All terminals to be VFR with wind speeds less than 10kts through 06Z/Thursday. Some high clouds skirt the north half of the region, otherwise a clear sky reigns. A layer of smoke is possible in the vicinity of KBPI late Wednesday afternoon due to a prescribed fire in the mountains west of the terminal.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.