textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- A hot day across the area today with some locations rising to close to 100 degrees. Some daily record high temperatures could be set this afternoon.

- Critical fire weather is likely once again across southern Wyoming, with elevated to near critical fire weather likely elsewhere.

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with the heat peaking over the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather will be likely each afternoon over the weekend.

- Some monsoonal moisture may return next week with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms, although details of coverage and timing remain highly uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This one of those strings of shifts when I feel like I have Deja Vu every night (the feeling, not the 1980 hit by Dionne Warwick). Basically, the weather is the same every night and the possibly hazards are the same every night. And this is continues tonight, with the heat and fire the concerns.

As for today, we will have very warm temperatures. However, there is one other thing that may have an impact, the smoke. It could help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than what would be expected. However, it still looks like a hot day with most locations below 6300 feet above 90 degrees for a high temperature. As for the century mark (100 degrees), the highest chance is across central Wyoming below 5000 feet, in places like Riverton, Shoshoni and even the lower elevations of Casper. We will likely have some record highs fall today. The other concern is for fire weather. Most guidance is showing somewhat lighter wind than today, especially East of the Divide. It is still rather gusty across southern Wyoming though, with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 25 mph. With that, we will issue a Red Flag Warning for Sweetwater, Sublette, southern Lincoln and southeastern Fremont County. We also included the eastern Wind River Range. I did give thought to the Wind River Basin. However, wind looks too borderline at this time. Also, the weekend looks more concerning so we lift it out for now.

It is more of the same for the weekend, with strong ridging remaining over the Cowboy State. The very hot temperatures will continue, with 700 millibar temperatures climbing over 20 celsius for some locations. Saturday looks like the warmest day of the two, with most locations below 5500 feet having at least a 1 in 2 chance of highs of 100 or higher. Sunday still looks hot, but maybe a degree or two cooler. However, there does look to be more of a breeze this days, so the chance of critical fire weather also looks to increase. We may need more fire weather highlights this weekend, but will will punt the decision to the day shift for now. As for convection, the chance remains very low. A bit of mid level moisture may try to creep into far southwestern Wyoming on Saturday, but it is the mid level variety so the only activity may be a few virga showers given the very dry low levels. The chance may be slightly higher on Sunday afternoon but probably no more than 1 out of 6 and again, largely confined to southwestern Wyoming. And, we will likely continue to deal with areas of smoke that will reduce visibility at times.

As we head into next week, the ridge will begin to retreat to the south, and this should allow for somewhat cooler temperatures. However, temperatures still look to be above normal. It could allow for some more monsoonal moisture to spread into the area though. This morning runs did come in somewhat drier though, keeping the bulk of the moisture across Utah and Colorado with Wyoming only on the edge of the best moisture. As a result, coverage looks rather sparse next week with at most a 1 out of 3 chance for any given area. There has also been a lack of model consistency, so trying to pick out a more active day or placement of any convection is nearly impossible this far out. There some signals it could be more active next weekend, but a lot can change this far out. So, as for the next three days, it looks like more of the same. Near record to record high temperatures, little to no chance of rain and elevated to critical fire weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 406 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Primarily VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Saturday. However, wildfire smoke may occasionally result in brief periods of MVFR visibility through the period. With the low confidence of placement and timing we will leave out of the TAFs for now. Wind will increase again after 18Z, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots for most terminals except for KCOD and KWRL where wind should remain 11 knots or less. Lighter wind prevails at all terminals after sunset on Saturday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A combination of humidity falling into the single digits and a gusty breeze will keep critical fire weather across much of southern Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Across central Wyoming, elevated to near critical fire weather is likely although critical fire weather is less likely due to wind being somewhat lighter. A combination of hot weather, low humidity and a gusty breeze will keep the chance of elevated to critical fire weather across much of central and southern Wyoming into the weekend.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until 11 AM MDT this morning for WYZ001>013- 016>018.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277>279-288-289.