textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds to 55 mph will continue across Johnson County tonight. Wind will decrease after sunrise Saturday morning with gusts of 35 to 45 mph through the day.

- There is around a 30 percent chance of light snow (less than an inch) across the I-90 and I-25 corridor in northern Johnson County from tonight to sunrise Saturday.

- Seasonal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected over weekend, with little chance of precipitation through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1254 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The strong northwesterly wind will continue through the daylight hours for areas along and east of the Divide. This remains most notable across Johnson County, where gusts have exceeded 70 mph at times today. This should begin to decrease by sunset for most locations, with stronger gusts persisting in the northern Bighorns as another upper jet surge arrives. This will provide enough lift for light snow in the Bighorns this evening (less than an inch), with lower chances (20-30%) for light snow across the I-90/I-25 corridor in northern Johnson County. Otherwise, not much change in the forecast; mild and mostly dry conditions are expected through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

09Z satellite water vapor imagery shows Wyoming sandwiched between a western CONUS ridge and an Upper Midwest trough. This set up is resulting in strong northerly flow aloft, with a 100kt to 130kt upper level jet over the Cowboy State. An associated northwesterly oriented 50kt-60kt 700mb wind maximum is also present over Johnson County. This set up will be in place throughout the day today which means a windy day, especially across Johnson County, with widespread cooler temperatures is in store.

There remains high confidence (90%+) that high winds will occur most of the daylight hours across Johnson County, given little to no shift in the orientation of the 700mb wind maximums and upper level jet. High winds are sustained gusts of 40 mph or gusts of at least 58 mph. Probabilities of these gusts occurring across the aforementioned location are 80% to 95% through the afternoon. Thus, the High Wind Warning remains in effect for Johnson County, especially near Buffalo, through 5PM this evening. These winds will also be present across the Bighorn Mountains, however, there is higher criteria for High Wind headlines for the mountain. A few hour extension past 5PM was considered given the overall set up remains mostly in place. The only difference is that 700mb winds begin to decrease. We have opted to not extend the High Wind Warning given probabilities of these winds occurring past 5PM drop to less than 20%. Regardless winds across Johnson County, and especially near Buffalo, will remain elevated with a 50% to 60% chance of gusts up to 45 mph occurring through early Saturday morning.

Given the upper level jet stays over the state today, windy northwest winds are also forecast across Natrona County, eastern Fremont County, the Bighorn Basin, and high elevations along the Continental Divide. Wind gusts across these areas will generally be between 30 mph and 40 mph, with an occasional gust of 50 mph not out of question through sunset this evening. Mean 700mb winds over these locations are forecast to be 30kt to 40kt, which is the reason that these areas are being spared from the gusts that are over Johnson County. However, this is something that will need to be monitored throughout the day and if any additions need to be made to the High Wind Warning. Elsewhere across the area, breezy winds with gusts up to 25 mph are possible (30%-70% chance). Winds remain windy across much of the area into Saturday before flow aloft becomes northwesterly as the trough shifts east and the overall pressure gradient wanes.

As mentioned previously, cooler temperatures are in store today. A cold front on Thursday that was associated with the beginning of the winds, is now well south of Wyoming. Mean 700mb temperatures are forecast to be -9C across southwestern portions and around -20C across Johnson County. With deep mixing expected and cool 700mb temperatures, near to even slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures are forecast with todays highs largely in the 20s. The exceptions are the Green River, Wind River, and Bighorn Basins as well as across Sweetwater County, where highs will likely (90% chance) be in the 30s. Finally, there is a up to a 30% chance of light snow across the northern Bighorn Mountains, north of Buffalo, and on Casper Mountain today given favorable upsloping. Snow accumulations will most likely be less than 0.5 inch (80% chance). The only impacts that could occur would be associated with low visibilities due to blowing snow.

There is good agreement amongst ensemble model guidance that largely unsaturated northwesterly flow will be in place from Saturday evening through at least the middle of next week. This is due to the upper-level ridge remaining over the western CONUS. Expect temperatures warm back up to above normal as well. Additionally, weak embedded disturbances are forecast to trek across the region on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Moisture with these disturbances will be limited given the overall Canadian origin so there are very low, if any precipitation chances. Overall, the dry and mild January that we have been having continues.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 940 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

SCT-BKN FL100-200 skies will be in place by the start of the forecast, becoming mostly SKC after 12Z. Gusty winds around 25 to 30kt will continue at times at KBPI/KPNA through 00Z. LLWS will also occur at these terminals through 17Z. Stronger winds over the Bighorns and Johnson County will continue through 00Z as well, decreasing slightly afterward. Winds will be less of an impact over terminal sites after 00Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.