textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph will be widespread across the area today. Gusts up to 75 mph are expected over Red Canyon/South Pass.

- There is a 20-30% chance for rain showers over far northern portions of Johnson County between 6 PM and midnight. Confidence is low for liquid amounts to lead to icy roads as temperatures fall below freezing after midnight.

- Light snow will occur over northern portions as a cold front slowly moves over the northern half of the forecast area. The heaviest accumulations in the mountains will occur over the northern half of the Bighorns and Absarokas, with 2 to 4 inches possible. Snowfall accumulations during the day near Cody and Johnson County are expected to remain in grassy areas. West-northwest winds, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, will occur over central and southern portions.

- Widespread gusty winds 30 to 60 mph for the rest of the week, with Thursday looking to be the day of greatest winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The High Wind Warnings for the Absaroka Mountains and Cody Foothills were allowed to expire a few hours ago, as winds continue to decrease and the threat for gusts of 75 and 60 mph (respectively) has gone down. However, gusts of 40 to 55 mph will continue over the east slopes of the Absaroka, Bighorn and Wind River Mountains through the rest of the night. Similar gusts up to 35 mph will also continue over the Cody Foothills and portions of Natrona County. There will be a 20-50% chance for snow showers over the Gros Ventres, the southern end of the Absarokas and the northern end of the Wind River Mountains this morning. This snow will be the result of low clouds over these areas that are currently visible on satellite imagery. Localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected through 18Z.

The overall forecast remains on track for today. A more zonal flow pattern will be in place today with the PFJ extending from the PACNW to the Great Lakes. Although the core of the jet will be north of the Cowboy State, the gradient will remain tight with widespread 35 to 60kt 700mb winds over much of the CWA. Winds will increase late this morning with gusts of 35 to 55 mph in place across much of the CWA by 18Z. Areas east of the Divide will have gusts on the higher end of that range. The areas that could have gusts over 60 mph will be the east slopes of the Wind River Mountains, southern portions of the Absarokas (specifically the Washakie Needles area) and the Owl Creeks. The two latter areas are not expected to reach criteria (75 mph), but the Wind River Mountains still look likely to reach criteria, so will upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning. There is a 30 to 50% chance for several locations east of the Divide to have a 60 mph gust, with Meeteetse and Cody having a 60 to 70 % chance, respectively. This is likely a one-time gust and not indicative over the overall winds expected this afternoon. It is noteworthy that there is non-zero chance for these higher gusts. Additionally, an experimental version of the HRRR is depicting a breaking mountain wave to impact Lander between 18Z and 00Z. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal as the winds keep the atmosphere well mixed, with readings in the 60s for most areas east of the Divide. Areas along the Wind River and Bighorn River could approach 70F.

Winds will decrease across the area through the evening, with the threat for high winds decreasing as well. There is a 20-30% chance for showers toward the Buffalo area, dropping southward from Sheridan County, this evening as a cold front makes its way into the forecast area. Temperatures will be dropping through the evening, reaching the freezing mark by 06Z Tuesday. Roads could be icy over I- 90 and US-16 if there is enough QPF to wet the roads, but confidence remains low at this point.

Light snow will develop over the northern mountains Tuesday morning as the cold front slowly progresses southward. Chances for snow will increase over Johnson County Tuesday afternoon, but accumulations will likely be confined to grassy areas due to the March sun angle. Overall snowfall amounts have trended downward, with 2 to 4 inches over the Bighorns and 1 to 3 inches over the Absarokas. 1 to 2 inches are forecasted near Cody and portions of Johnson County along I-25, with most of this occurring during Tuesday afternoon. The front will continue its slow southward progression, extending from Lincoln County, to the Wind River Basin and the Natrona/Johnson county line by 00Z Wednesday. The front gradually reaches the WY/CO border by 12Z Wednesday, resulting in overnight lows in the teens for much of the area. Because of the front's slow progression, west- northwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will occur across much of the area west of the Divide, as well as the Wind River Basin and Natrona County Tuesday afternoon.

Dry conditions return Wednesday, as a ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin. West to southwest winds, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, will return across much of the area. Areas prone to southwest winds will be most impacted. Temperatures look to stay near normal with readings in the upper 30s to lower 50s across the area.

The trend of widespread windy conditions, and possibly high winds, looks to return Thursday and Friday as the PFJ becomes somewhat zonal (from the PACNW to the Midwest) and a jet streak of 160kt over southern Canada. This keeps the gradient tight over the Cowboy State with 700mb winds of 40-70kt over much of the CWA by 12Z Thursday. At this point, High Wind Watches continue to look likely for the Absarokas, Cody Foothills, east slopes of the Wind River Mountains, the east slopes of the Bighorns and Johnson County. The west winds coming off the Bighorns could lead to a strong crosswind hazard over I-25. Its also possible the Wind River Basin, Natrona and Sweetwater counties would need Watches as well. Winds will be increasing Wednesday night, reaching high wind criteria at or around the 12Z timeframe. This certainly looks likely for the aforementioned mountain zones. The lower elevation zones look likely by 18Z. Winds will decrease across much of the area Thursday night, with high winds remaining possible over the east slopes of the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains. This could lead to South Pass being impacted by 60-80 mph winds for about 36 hrs straight as these conditions continue into Friday. These overall conditions will continue Friday, as the northwest flow pattern continues. The high winds from Thursday are not likely to impact as many areas Friday, but widespread winds of 40 to 55 mph will occur. The previously forecasted cold front for Friday is now forecasted to stay well to the north and will not impact the CWA until Saturday night. This could lead to a repeat of Friday, with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph and the more severe wind gusts being confined to the east slopes of the Wind river Mountains and the southern end of the Absarokas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions across nearly all terminals throughout the TAF period. The only exception to this would be KJAC, KPNA, and KBPI which may see a few brief periods of MVFR through the morning. Conditions are forecast to improve by the late morning on Monday with ceilings gradually rising. Around the same time winds will begin to increase across nearly all terminals. Winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts of 25 to 35 knots will be frequent. KCPR, KLND, and KRIW see stronger gusts in excess of 40 knots. KCPR and KLND may see a period with gusts near or exceeding 50 knots. Winds gradually decrease by around 00-02Z Tuesday with most terminals seeing a light breeze of 5 to 10 knots after 06Z through the end of the TAF period. A nearing weather system will bring in lowering cloud decks as well as precipitation chances to western terminals by the end of the period. Mountain obscuration will be possible across western and some central ranges through the afternoon before gradually improving. The aforementioned weather system is likely to bring obscuration back to the area for the end of the TAF period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ015.