textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy areas of fog along with light snow flurries persist across portions of the Wind River Basin. Conditions are expected to gradually improve through the morning and early afternoon.

- Cold temperatures have enveloped the Cowboy State with highs forecast to only get into the upper teens and low 20s.

- A nearby system will bring chances for snow showers to portions of the state this afternoon and evening with minimal impacts expected.

- Quiet and warm weather returns for the weekend into the start of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1027 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Much of the previous discussion remains on track with little change in the forecast. One thing to mention is the patchy areas of fog that have developed across the Wind River Basin. This area of fog is gradually dissipating with conditions likely to improve by the early afternoon. Temperatures may be impacted as a result of this, so highs today have been adjusted slightly. Current highs for today range from the upper teens to low 20s across the state. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a nearby system will bring some chances for snow showers this afternoon and evening. However, chances are low ranging from 20-40% and mainly over western WY as well as parts of northwestern and northern WY. Otherwise the rest of the forecast has seen little change. Warm and mainly quiet weather looks to return to the area for the weekend into the start of next week. A disturbance continues to possibly move into the region for the first half of next week bringing more accumulating snow to western WY.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Old Man Winter finally returned to Wyoming after taking a rather long vacation. The vacation was so long east of the Divide we thought he abandoned his property. For the first time this winter, a majority of western and central Wyoming has snow cover. There is one thing to show how warm it has been though. When I returned from my shift last night I was shoveling my sidewalk and the snow was still melting at the bottom, despite it being around zero degrees. It really shows how abnormally warm it has been and the amount of warmth the ground had.

As for today, we have a few minor concerns. For one, a weak shortwave will be moving into northwestern Wyoming. This wave has little moisture to work with and although there will be some snow showers, any accumulation will be little to none. The other concern is a low that will pass over Colorado and may bring some snow showers to southern Wyoming. Most guidance is in good agreement that the vast majority of snow will remain south of the border and any showers that occur in Wyoming would remain south of Interstate 80, where impacts are slim to none. There is basically an almost zero chance of an inch even there. Another question is temperatures with the fresh snow cover. We did lower temperatures somewhat for today with the increased albedo. If it does get warmer, most people would either be happy or would not care. The other question is whether or not the fog monster can climb out of his lair to feast on the fresh moisture and bring reduced visibility. For now, we kept the patchy fog in the favored locations. Friday night looks like another cold night but nothing record breaking.

Ridging then builds into the area Saturday and controls the weather through Monday. We should then begin a warming trend. First in the areas that mix out easily, like Casper and Buffalo as southwest flow increases. In the basins, a lot depends on how quickly the snow can melt off. We kept temperatures below guidance through Saturday. Following that, the stronger late February sun should have melted off enough of the snow to begin to weaken the inversions. Most locations should have near normal temperatures by Sunday and above average temperatures by Monday.

Wind will begin to increase Monday as the next Pacific trough and cold front approach the state. As expected, guidance has slowed the arrival of the precipitation given the strength of the ridge. The current forecast has some precipitation arriving Monday night, and this would be the earliest. It more than likely would hold off until Tuesday. At this point, this system looks more like the weather systems we have seen more often than not this winter. That means zonal flow and a largely upslope / downslope pattern. There is ample moisture with it though, and this is potentially shaping up as a good storm for the western mountains with over a foot of new snow possible. East of the Divide, it looks like another wind event for some locations. First in the prefrontal locations on Tuesday, like around Casper. The windier day may end up being Wednesday though. A second piece of energy will drop southward with an 125 knot jet moving over Wyoming. The most likely location for this would be in northwest flow areas, like Buffalo, the Bighorn Basin, Wind River Basin and Sweetwater County. The jet energy looks to be the main chance for any showers, but almost all locations have less than a 1 out of 3 chance of an inch of snow except for the mountains. Some of the precipitation may end up being rain as well. Temperatures will be warm as well east of the Divide, with some locations approaching 60 degrees on Tuesday. Temperatures then cool somewhat toward the end of the week, but likely remain above normal. The pattern for the end of the week looks largely dry, mild and breezy to windy as flat ridging builds back into the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1012 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

KRIW/KLND continue to hold the low clouds and fog, but vis has started to improve in the last hour or so. Still going to take a few hours to erode this low layer, so have extended the BR/VV into early this afternoon. Latest forecast does not have a repeat overnight, so will hold off for now. Remaining sites remain VFR today with only passing mid to high cirrus. The minor shortwave passing through looks weak, so have removed any hints of vcsh for all except KJAC, where some snow in the approach corridors and adjacent mountains is still possible.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.