textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than average temperatures continue through the next week with mainly dry conditions.

- Minimal snow chances (10-20%) for the northern Bighorns and points east Monday evening with a weak system with the main impact of increased clouds and temperatures not quite as warm Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

More of the same for the forecast with warmer than average temperatures up to 20 degrees east of the Divide and mainly dry conditions for at least another week. IR continues to depict cirrus spilling over the strong upper level ridge over much of the western United States, and will only increase in coverage later on Sunday and into Monday. With the northwest flow aloft, expect a stronger drainage wind for the Wind River Basin even in the overnight hours seeing gusts over 20 mph through much of the day Sunday and even into Monday as well, picked up mostly by the ever reliable FV3. Otherwise, breezy winds at the usual suspect areas for the wind corridor of Sweetwater to Natrona Counties, even extending into parts of Johnson as well for Sunday.

The main finger of the PFJ remains well north into Canada before dipping into far northeastern parts of the country keeping the colder air north of the border. The aforementioned ridge does break down a bit as convergence weakens aloft that will allow for a weak shortwave to push by to the northeast Monday afternoon and evening. This will drop a "cold" front through the area that will knock temperatures a few degrees for Tuesday but still above average for this time of year to start the month of February. Minimal snow shower chances across the Bighorns Monday night into Tuesday morning dropping to Johnson County possibly but low confidence on anything significant (10-20%) at this time. Once this pushes through, the upper level ridge builds in stronger with increasing convergence aloft. This will keep the warmer than average temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy winds in the wind corridor through the week and weekend.

Longer term model solutions, in particular the EC, depict a stronger system to affect the area come early the following week. The PFJ dips south allow for a strong westerly flow aloft that will likely bring western mountain snow as it normally does with the northwest Pacific moisture pushing in. With this, points east of the Divide will likely remain mostly dry but colder temperatures should be had for all if this comes to fruition. This is the only hope for a winter sighting in the long term forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1003 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions through the period as high pressure influences the area. Scattered to broken high clouds move over the area, decreasing towards the end of the period. Notably, KCOD could see intermittent gusts through the period, as gustier winds aloft mix down. Otherwise, winds at sites generally follow normal diurnal trends.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.