textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to warm this afternoon, with highs across most locations in the 30s and 40s.

- Light snow shower chances (20%-80%) exist Wednesday afternoon and evening across the entire area. A light dusting is forecast for low elevations that see snow showers and up to 0.5 inches for the Western Valleys.

- Other than light high elevation snow chances (up to 30%), expect dry weather and mild temperatures in the 30s and 40s, and potentially in the 50s, Thursday through Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1224 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

19Z water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level ridge over the western CONUS, leaving the Intermountain West in unsaturated northwesterly flow aloft. The temperatures forecast remains on track for this afternoon. Abundant daytime sunshine, breezy winds, and 700mb temperatures in the -6C to -9C range continue to favor highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s east of the Divide and across southern Wyoming this afternoon. High temperatures could approach 50 degrees where winds remain elevated. Across western Wyoming, expect highs to be slightly cooler (around 30 degrees) due to light winds not mixing out the colder air.

The upper level ridge remains on track to shift east into the region overnight tonight. There is consensus among model guidance that a weak shortwave trough will traverse the state, disrupting the ridge, Wednesday afternoon. This shortwave will provide support for a weak cold front and to push through during this time. An associated upper level jet streak will be positioned to the south and west of Wyoming, leaving the area in a favorable location for enhanced lift. All of these ingredients have increased confidence in light snow chances (20%-80%) across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amounts and snow chances are greatest (50-80%) across western Wyoming with a 90% chance for 2 inches across the Tetons and Salt River and Wyoming Ranges. The Western Valleys have a 30% chance of 0.5 inches of snow. As for areas across southern Wyoming and east of the Continental Divide, there is only a 20% chance of a light snow shower for any given location. Anywhere that sees a light snow shower will likely (90% chance) see only a light dusting Wednesday evening. However, areas such as Natrona and Sweetwater Counties are forecast to be breezy, so there could be brief instances of reduced visibilities. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged this afternoon with a warmup to much above normal temperatures beginning Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

The anomalous period of cold temperatures we have seen across the Cowboy State over the past few days has concluded. During a normal winter this cold snap would not have been all too uncommon but this winter has been anything but normal. This period of cold seems to have done little to impact monthly averages with places like Lander still on track to have a top 3 warmest January on record. As for snowfall or even just moisture in general, it has been abysmal especially east of the Divide. Since July 1st, Lander has only seen 4.5 inches of snow compared to the normal amount of 38.9 inches. Where does this rank among other years on record? Well it would be the record lowest amount of snow within that time span...So to say this winter has been normal is really quite a reach. Unfortunately, there really is no relief in sight, as warm and mainly dry conditions are likely to return and persist through the end of January and into the start of February.

As mentioned earlier, warm and dry conditions have returned to the state. This is in part thanks to more ridging developing over the western CONUS and gradually shifting east. The first ridge that is moving through the region currently, is not all too strong. However, it will be enough to bring warm temperatures and dry conditions to the state Tuesday. Highs are forecast to range in the mid 30s to mid 40s with colder temperatures in the upper 20s across western valleys. The lack of potency with this ridge will allow some weak disturbances to move through the region. The first moves through Wednesday afternoon, bringing with it chances for precipitation to portions of the state. Upper level flow from the west will lead to the best chances for precipitation setting up along the higher elevations of western WY. Probabilistic guidance shows parts of the Tetons and Salt River/Wyoming Ranges having a 40-70% of seeing 2 inches or more of snow. Precipitation will not be mainly limited to the higher elevations, as western valleys may see light snow showers at times as well. Showers continue to move east through the afternoon with the best chances remaining in the higher elevation mountains. That being said, showers will still be possible in the lower elevations of northern, central, and southern WY. However, at this time impacts look minimal with precipitation chances currently sitting around 20-50%. The system moves out by the early morning hours on Thursday. Some light snow accumulations of a coating to possibly an inch cannot be ruled out in the lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin along with parts of Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lower elevations will see mainly dry conditions through the end of the work week while some light showers linger over higher elevations.

The second half of the week will see another ridge begin to build in over the western CONUS. This ridge looks more potent than the previous and will gradually make its way east by the weekend. Well above normal temperatures look to accompany this ridge with highs nearing the upper 40s to possibly 50s by Friday. Models differ on what the weekend may look like with some showing a disturbance skirt over the top of the ridge. This disturbance may clip the state bringing some chances for light showers but confidence remains low. The track of this disturbance is still uncertain, however even if the state were to get clipped, impacts look minimal as not much moisture is associated with this system. Overall, while there may be some chances for disturbances over the next week, precipitation looks light and warm above normal temperatures will prevail.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1008 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions through the period as high pressure moves over the area. Winds are mainly diurnally driven, with some gusty winds 15 to 25 knots this afternoon for some locations. Winds decrease this evening, with increasing high clouds overnight ahead of the next weather system.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.