textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday mainly across central and western WY.

- It will be warmer Friday and Saturday. Wind will be quite breezy on Saturday, with elevated fire weather conditions.

- It will cool down again by Sunday into next week, especially across western valleys.

- Uncertainty remains regarding a potential system for the end of the weekend into the start of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Another mild and pleasant day across much of the Cowboy State today. The one exception to this is portions of southern WY including southern Lincoln and Sweetwater Counties. These areas currently are seeming some showers and weak thunderstorms develop. Impacts remain mostly unchanged from the previous discussion with the bulk of the moisture falling as virga and some gusty outflow winds possible. Friday looks to see a similar setup with shower/thunderstorm coverage expanding slightly farther north and west. Showers look to develop by the early afternoon Friday and gradually spread north. Precipitation chances range from 10 to 40% across parts of southern, central and western WY. However, as mentioned in the previous discussion the overall atmosphere will be rather dry likely leading to mostly virga showers. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with chances sitting around 5-15%. Otherwise temperatures will continue to climb into the low to mid 70s east of the Divide and low to mid 60s west of the Divide. Saturday looks to be a similar kind of day with the only deviant being a better setup. This should allow for moisture to make it to the surface across portions of the state mainly west of the Divide.

Looking ahead to the end of the weekend into the start of next week. Models over the past few days have been indicating the possibility of a low moving into the western CONUS and gradually shifting east. The initial thought was the potential for a widespread precipitation event if the low was to remain intact and track favorably. Unfortunately, the most recent round of model data has shown signs of this no longer being the case. In fact, models have shifted considerably with the trend now being towards lesser precipitation and coverage. This looks to be the result of the low becoming disorganized shortly after moving inland. Also, the low looks to track much farther south leading to a less favorable setup for the Cowboy State. Overall, the model trend is not looking very promising but that does not mean things cannot shift back to a more favorable setup over the next few days. As of right now, things are looking to be dryer but there should still be some chances for precipitation for the start of next week. Obviously, the trends in recent model guidance will need to be monitored over the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Westerly flow aloft will be the synoptic pattern for today, transitioning to a weak ridging pattern for late today and Friday. Temperatures today are thus a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the low-to-mid 60s for a majority of the area. A decent pressure gradient remains in the wake of yesterday's cold front and the slight ridging building in, so today continues to be a breezy day. Wind gusts 15 to 25 mph are fairly common across the lower elevations from mid-mroning to this evening, with some areas closer to 30 mph. An approaching upper low around northern California advects some leading moisture across southern Wyoming today as well. Models have limited this moisture a bit compared to yesterday's runs. If any rain does fall, it would occur around I-80 and south, though some hi-res models have a stray shower occurring a bit farther north towards South Pass. In any case, moisture is quite limited, so virga showers is the expected result. A strong shower could develop and produce a brief rain, though any amounts would likely be under 0.05 inches. There is also the slight chance (15%) for a shower to become a thunderstorm. The main concern here is the potential for any fire starts due to lightning, given the overall dry conditions. A shower (virga or rain-producing) could also bring a 40 to 50 mph outflow gust, though this would be an upper-end wind gust.

For Friday, temperatures trend a little warmer as a quick ridge moves over. Again, some moisture, although limited, continues to advect in from the approaching system. An isolated shower is possible during the afternoon, mainly for the western mountains, though an isolated shower can't be ruled out elsewhere, such as around Natrona County. Like will be the case today, moisture is limited, so expect virga showers or very light rain amounts.

The aforementioned low over northern California begins to impact the area this weekend as it moves onshore. Precipitation chances pickup for Saturday as a shortwave ahead of the main system helps provide a little lift with the available, but limited, moisture. The best favored location at this time is the western mountains, though elsewhere does have limited chances (15-30%). These chances are likely to decrease though as we get closer and hi-res models better take into effect the mountains. This system is not very quick as it treks eastwards. Daily precipitation chances occur Saturday through early next week, with the center of low passing by Wyoming Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A little moisture will make its way into the area Friday afternoon, which will allow isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to develop. The chance (20- 30%) for actual impacts at any terminals is too low for prevailing, but PROB30 groups of -SHRA have been added at terminals that have the best chance. Lightning with little to no rain will also be possible (40%) with these storms.

Wind will increase and become more southerly Friday afternoon. The strongest wind will be at KRKS where gusts up to 30 knots will occur Friday afternoon. Most other terminals will have wind of 10-15 knots, with gusts around 20 knots Friday afternoon. Higher gusts to 40 knots are possible where showers occur.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.