textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather continues through Monday.

- Elevated fire weather is likely the next few afternoons, especially Sunday, with an emphasis from Rock Springs through Casper.

- An approaching weather system will bring snow to western Wyoming and strong to high wind East of the Divide from Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

One of the traditions we have in the humble Riverton weather abode, at least among the older, Gen X crew, is listening to countdowns of the Top 40 songs of certain weeks from the 70s through the 90s as we compose the forecast. And there are two things from these that remind me of the weather over the next several days. The first few days remind me of the classic R&B band that was popular in the 70s and early 80s, Earth, Wind and Fire. Then we transfer to Pat Benatar's early 80s hit "Fire and Ice". Read on for details.

High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through around Monday evening, with the exception of some isolated shower activity across the northwestern mountains. I know the forecast has showers starting Monday afternoon. However, the models are almost always too fast with Pacific systems this far out so we think it will be dry through at least sunset on Monday. The main concerns, mentioned above will be wind and fire weather. Temperatures will remain well above normal through at least Monday, in some cases more than 20 degrees above normal. Ridging will begin to flatten today, and with the southwest flow this will favor areas from Muddy Gap through Natrona County, we could see gusts over 30 mph at times this afternoon. This is combined with dew points in the teens. Complicating this is that fuels are now critical in the lower elevations of Natrona and Johnson Counties. I did give some thought to fire weather highlights. Relative humidity should remain above critical levels though, with only a 1 in 3 chance of humidity below 20 percent in Natrona County and basically zero chance below 15 percent. Wind in Johnson County is expected to remain light to moderate and other locations do not have critical fuels. I am a bit more concerned about Sunday though as 700 millibar wind climbs to 40 knots, an 100 knot jet moves over Wyoming and a shortwave brushes by to the north. This will increase wind in Natrona County with some gusts approaching 40 mph. Relative humidity is again the limiting factor though, with probabilistic guidance giving less than a 1 out of 6 chance of humidity below 15 percent. Monday could see elevated fire weather as well but slightly less wind and somewhat higher humidity may ease concerns just a bit.

Starting Monday night we should finally shift to a cooler and wetter pattern. A Pacific trough and cold front will swing into Wyoming. This will bring a return of snowy conditions to western Wyoming. It is a fairly fast mover though, with most of the snow falling in a 12 hour period. As for amounts, many of the western mountains have at least a 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches or more in a 24 period, but the chance of 12 inches or more is very small, generally less than 1 out of 10. With mild temperatures at the onset, snow levels will start fairly high, from 7000 to 8000 feet before falling to the valley floors by morning. In the valleys, at this time there is less than a 1 in 10 chance of 3 inches or more although some accumulation will be likely. There should at least by a lull after that on Tuesday night.

Shifting to East of the Divide, concerns shift to wind and again fire concerns. Things are setting up nicely at this time for a decent high wind event. We will have the approaching front and trough. We will have a tight pressure gradient across the area Tuesday afternoon, as much as 22 millibars from northeast to southwest. The 700 millibar winds climb to as high as 65 knots at 18Z Tuesday. As we head into the probabilistic realm of ensembles, a good portion of the area, with an emphasis on East of the Divide, has at least a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 55 mph on Tuesday. Some of the wind prone areas near Casper have at least a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 70 mph. This, combined with humidity remaining low, could also bring widespread elevated fire weather East of the Divide. The chance of critical fire weather looks low though, as slightly cooler temperatures should keep humidity above critical levels. As for precipitation, the chance looks low with the strong southwesterly downsloping flow. There is a small chance of showers post-frontal, but any amounts should be very small.

Another system may then approach for the middle and latter part of the week. There is more model spread on this and it being at least 5 days out, I won't try to pin down details. However, this could possibly, emphasis on possibly, be the best chance for some measurable precipitation East of the Divide. The latest model runs are indicating some lee cyclogenesis over Colorado, and this could turn mid and low level flow more easterly, bring in some better moisture. There are also a few showing a 700 millibar low over Central Wyoming, all things we need for precipitation East of the Divide. Again, it is still several days out guidance can flip flop at this distance. However, at this point, this may be the best chance for measurable precipitation East of the Divide that we have had in a while. As for temperatures, we look to finally have a period of near to below normal ones with broad troughing over the western United States. However, with the flow largely from the Pacific, no frigidly cold air is expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1019 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at terminals through the period. KCPR will see gusts to around 25 knots by 16Z Saturday and through the afternoon; remaining terminals will generally see gusts remaining under 20 knots. Midlevel broken to scattered clouds will continue at KJAC through the period, with most other terminals seeing higher scattered to few cloud decks.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Elevated fire weather will be possible over the next few days. The main area of concern today is from eastern Sweetwater County through Natrona County where wind gusts over 25 mph and relative humidity to 20 percent will be possible. Sunday will be a greater concern with stronger wind and somewhat warmer temperatures. Concern may ease a bit Monday. An approaching cold front may bring more widespread elevated fire weather on Tuesday. At this time, with relative humidity expected to remain above 15 percent for the part, critical fire weather is not expected.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.