textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- High winds are expected much today across the Absarokas and Cody Foothills, with 55 mph to 70 mph gusts (50-80% Chance). Gusty winds of 25 to 40 mph winds will be common elsewhere, especially across the Wind Corridor. Similar winds are forecast on Friday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions exist today through Saturday across the Wind Corridor, especially Natrona County, and the Wind River Basin due to gusty west winds, low relative humidity, and much above normal temperatures.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. The next chances for precipitation arrive Sunday, mainly for locations west of the Continental Divide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

09Z water vapor imagery shows an amplifying ridge over the CONUS West Coast and a broad longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, placing Wyoming in unsaturated northwest flow aloft. This flow is rather strong with an upper level jet core (110kts) positioned over the Central Rockies and another upper jet located over Montana/southern Canada. This places Wyoming in an area where convergence aloft and downward motion is maximized. This convergence aloft, combined with weak embedded disturbances traversing the state and a tight surface pressure gradient, will allow for widespread gusty winds today. On Friday, wind will still be ongoing as the upper level jet situates itself over Wyoming.

The strongest winds are expected to occur across the Absaroka Mountains and the Cody Foothills due to a tightening temperature gradient and localized gap winds. This afternoon, there is a 75% to 90% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph and a 50% to 80% chance of 65 mph gusts in an area from Cody to Clark. Additionally, across the Absarokas, there is a 50% to 70% of wind gusts exceeding 75 mph both Thursday and Friday. Given these high probabilities, the High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings. On Friday, confidence is not as high for gusts exceeding 55 mph (40% to 80%) across the Cody Foothills. However, this will need to be monitored for any highlight extensions. Elsewhere across the state, especially for the Wind Corridor and Upper Wind River Basin, gusty 30 to 40 mph west to northwest winds will be common. Higher elevations and wind prone locations could see gusts exceeding 50 mph both days.

There is high confidence (95%+) in dry weather and near to much above normal temperatures through Saturday. This combined with the expected gusty winds, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast across parts of the area. The areas of greatest concern are the Wind Corridor, especially Natrona County, and the Wind River Basin. With gusty winds and deep mixing, relative humidities will easily be able to bottom out in the 15% to 20% range through Saturday. There is slightly more concern for elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Friday due to temperatures east of the Divide being in the upper 50s (around 15 degrees above normal). There is a 50% to 60% chance that some locations east of the Divide will have high temperatures above 60 degrees.

The West Coast ridge begins to shift east and flatten Saturday afternoon and shift the upper level jet east. This will weaken flow aloft over Wyoming and lessen the surface pressure gradient slightly. Wind can still be expected on Saturday, but will not be as strong or as widespread compared to today and Thursday. Clouds will also be increasing Saturday afternoon as more zonal flow begins to set in and usher some mid-level moisture into the region. The next shot at precipitation arrives on Sunday, as the ridge breaks down even more and opens Wyoming up to increasing Pacific moisture. A vorticity maximum will also be present over southern Wyoming, focusing precipitation to areas west of the Continental Divide.

Model guidance has continued to be in consensus that an upper level trough and associated closed low will shift into the Great Basin Monday. This keeps precipitation potential for areas west of the Divide into early next week. There is a decent amount of uncertainty with regards to the trajectory and magnitude of this low Tuesday onward, which will have ramifications on any associated precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites for the entirety of the period. Wind gusts of 20 to 30kt are ongoing at KBPI, KCOD and KRIW. Gusts up to 40kt will develop at KCOD by 19Z. Similar gusts of 20 to 35kt will develop at KRKS, KPNA and KCPR. Winds diminish between 00Z and 03Z with radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and shallow inversion. Winds, however remain elevated at KCOD, KCPR and KRKS due to funneling and southward LLJ remaining. Some high clouds will be the extent of sky conditions, remaining dry throughout. Turbulent winds will develop and remain in place over the Absaroka Mountains after 00Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Friday for WYZ002.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ003.