textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Light western mountain snow and southern Wyoming rain and/or snow chances (20%-30%) exist throughout the day today. Dry weather is expected elsewhere with near to above normal temperatures.

- Largely dry weather and above normal temperatures are forecast Friday through Sunday. Precipitation chances (30%-40%) increase across the west Sunday afternoon through late Monday.

- There are early indications that gusty 35 to 45 mph southwest winds will be present across portions of central Wyoming Monday and especially Tuesday. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are looking favorable early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Southwesterly flow is present over Wyoming, thanks to an upper-level closed low over central California and its attendant parent trough extending over the Great Basin. Multiple areas of vorticity are present embedded in the southwesterly flow and will provide support for isolated precipitation chances throughout the day today. At the same time, a stalled warm front will be situated roughly along the Continental Divide and keep those precipitation chances (20%-30%) confined to western and southern Wyoming. Mean snow levels range from 6,000 ft ASL across western Wyoming to around 7,000 ft ASL across southern Wyoming. This means that precipitation will fall as snow for the western mountains, however, light accumulations are expected due to limited available moisture. There is an 80% to 90% chance that snow accumulations will be between 0.1 inch to 1 inch for the western mountains. Isolated amounts up to 2 inches cannot be ruled out across the highest peaks.

As for southern Wyoming, the most likely precipitation type during the day will be light rain as there is above 70% chance that temperatures remain above 40 degrees. However, after sunset, temperatures are expected to drop near freezing so if any precipitation falls a light rain/snow mix is possible. Although it is February, a rumble thunder is not 100% out of question across far southwest Wyoming this afternoon with mid-level lapse rates between 7C/km and 7.5C/km. Dry weather is expected east of the Continental Divide, thanks to the warm front keeping any available moisture south. Mostly sunny skies will allow for the atmosphere to mix out, and with 700mb temperatures around -5C, expect high temperatures in the low 50s.

The aforementioned California low and associated trough is forecasted to make its eastward shift Friday and favor zonal flow over Wyoming. As it does so, the warm front will retreat southwards and cut off nearly all moisture to the area. However, limited moisture could linger across the western mountains and allow for a 20% to 30% chance of light snow during the day as the trough axis moves through. Temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal (40s to near 60) both Friday and Saturday.

Ensemble guidance is in fairly good consensus that a trough will begin to develop over the far western CONUS Sunday and put the Intermountain West in deep southwesterly flow. Warm southwesterly flow favors temperatures being a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to Saturday. Upper level flow begins to tighten and strength as the trough slowly shifts east late Sunday and Monday as embedded disturbances traverse the state. Thus, precipitation chances increase across the west and wind increases across the east. There is early indication that a potent shortwave, and an associated front, will move across the region sometime between late Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. A tightening surface pressure gradient ahead of this system and strong winds aloft allows for gusty 35 to 45 mph winds across parts of central Wyoming both Monday and Tuesday. This favors elevated fire weather conditions, especially on Tuesday, across parts of the area. Because we are 5+ days out, details in timing, precipitation extent, and location of said precipitation are very uncertain. However, because this winter has been so dry for many locations, we felt it important to highlight the elevated fire weather potential at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low stratus and fog around JAC/BPI/PNA due to the snow from yesterday and overnight. IFR will lift to MVFR by 14-15Z, to VFR by 16-18Z, lingering around JAC longer due to its terrain surroundings. RKS will see some shower activity through 15Z following the I-80 corridor that has been on and off overnight since midnight. MVFR conditions will lift to VFR by 19Z with all locations continuing to see mid level ceilings throughout the period west of the Divide. Light winds less than 10kts and mid level ceilings for all sites east of the Divide with no other weather elements expected at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.