textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and dreary conditions will continue along the I-25 corridor from Casper to Buffalo through this morning.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions return this weekend and Monday as temperatures warm back up to well above normal.

- A cold front will move over the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Chances for light snow over the western and northern mountains. Any snow that could occur in the lower elevations will melt Tuesday.

- A weather pattern change is finally expected to occur toward the latter half of next week, with chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures favored.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low clouds will remain in place over areas east of the Divide this morning. It will be a chilly start (given the recent trend of above normal temperatures) this morning with temperatures in the 20s to middle 30s. It will be a pleasant day with dry conditions, light winds and highs in the 50s to lower 60s (this is still slightly above normal for late March). The only downside will be high clouds streaming over the area from west to east.

Dry conditions will continue over the weekend as a broad flat ridge builds over the Northern Rockies. This will result in a persistent westerly flow aloft, which will also lead to a leeside trough over eastern portions of the state. This will tighten the pressure gradient and cause westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph over much of the CWA. Most of Johnson County and eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin will not be affected by these winds. Additionally, RH values will be critically low for most lower elevation zones Saturday and Sunday. Above normal to record temperatures will also return across the area. These conditions return for Monday as well, with winds increasing and becoming more widespread across the CWA as a trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. Chances for precipitation will increase over northwestern portions through the day Monday, with snow levels around 7000ft. Thus, will issue Fire Weather Watches for Saturday Sunday and Monday.

Chances for precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning will be mainly confined to western and northern portions. Snow levels will continue to drop, reaching at least 6000ft. Any snow that may fall in the lower elevations Monday night will melt after sunrise Tuesday morning due to the rising March sun angle. Otherwise, snowfall amounts in the northern and western mountains are rather light so far, ranging between 2 to 5 inches.

Dry conditions return for Wednesday, as this system will quickly exit eastward over the Central/Northern Plains. Models remain split with the next storm system from Thursday into next Saturday. Confidence continues to favor the ECMWF solution, which digs a longwave trough over the Intermountain West. This will increase southwest flow aloft over the Cowboy State Thursday, with increasing chances for precipitation Thursday and Friday as the base of the trough (with a closed low) bottoms out over the Great Basin. Will continue to keep an eye on this system with fingers crossed for the much needed precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 423 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Most terminals will have largely VFR conditions through the period with wind generally 12 knots or less. The exception will be in vicinity of KCPR where easterly flow will bring MVFR ceilings through around 15Z before beginning to scatter out and VFR conditions return. Local wind shear may occur in vicinity of KRIW and KLND through around 16Z this morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions expected to return Saturday and last through Monday. West winds with gusts of 30 to 35 mph will occur for much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 35 to 50 mph Monday ahead of a cold front. RH recovery will be fair to poor Saturday night and Sunday night. Precipitation chances will be confined to far northwestern portions of the state during the day Monday, with snow levels around 7000ft. The front will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ276>280-283-285-287-289-300.