textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring strong wind to much of the area this afternoon, with some light snow possible East of the Divide.

- Two more fronts bring more shots of cold air Wednesday and Friday along with gusty wind, but little chance of meaningful snow.

- Above normal temperatures should return Sunday into the first part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026

There are certain milestones I watch through the first part of the year. Not being a winter lover, these are markers I use to see when winter will end (although I would take this one every time). Today is that we are a month past the solstice. However, we still have a long way to go, and today will be a reminder of that in portions of the area.

The first will today, as a cold front drops southward across the area. The air behind it is not all that cold though. It also has little moisture to work with. However, there will be impacts, especially to one portion of the area. And this is Johnson County. It will not be a long impact though, the only lasting around 6 hours, generally from around 10 am to 4 pm. First the snowy part. This looks to be the least impactful, almost all of the lower elevation locations have less than a 1 in 5 chance of an inch or more of snow, with only a small portion of the Bighorns having at least a 1 in 2 chance of 2 inches or more. The main impact looks to be the wind. This will be especially so in the favored northwest flow / cold advection locations. And this includes, obviously, Johnson County. Probabilistic guidance gives at least a 2 out of 3 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph there, as well as in some of the windier locations west of Cody and Highway 120. We did give thought to a high wind warning. However, the 700 millibar winds only top out at around 45 knots. In addition, this would be a brief time, mainly post frontal between around 12 and 3 pm. We will issue a Special Weather Statement to cover for this along with reduced visibility from possible blowing and drifting snow with the frontal passage. All snow should end shortly after sunset, with a clearing sky and chilly temperatures overnight.

Another cold front will then approach and move through the area on Wednesday. This one has even less moisture to work with and would only produce some snow showers over the western Bighorns. The main concern will again be strong wind. Most MOS guidance keeps wind below high wind criteria, but it will be blustery in the same locations much of Wednesday, with around a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 45 mph in similar areas as this afternoon. This system will also usher in a colder air mass, although the core of the cold air will remain east of the forecast area. The coldest areas will be Johnson and Natrona Counties, where highs on Thursday could be 20 degrees colder than today, although there is a spread in the model guidance. A third front then moves through on Friday, this one again dry although it will bring another shot of cooler air. However, temperatures should only average 5 to 10 degrees below normal, nothing out of the ordinary. Some guidance does show a bit of moisture overrunning the cold dome Friday night and Saturday, possibly bringing some light snow to southern Wyoming, but this is far from certain. Then starting later this weekend and into early next week, ridging looks to build across the area and bring a return to near to above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 927 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across most of western and central Wyoming over the next 24 hours, with the most impactful weather for most aviation interests being strong north to northwesterly winds which develop Tuesday mid-day. A cold front pushes southward across the state bringing 25 to 35 kt gusts for most locations. Those in far western Wyoming valleys will be spared the stronger winds.

MVFR conditions are possible in the far north of Wyoming. For our forecast area (which has Johnson County as its northeastern extreme), KBYG (Buffalo, WY) looks to be the location with the highest chance for a few hours of light of snow as the front passes, currently forecast to occur 20/1800z through 20/2200Z. Additionally, in this pattern, KBYG often gusts higher than surrounding sites, so there is a 70% chance of gusts in the 40 to 50 kt range during the mid-afternoon for the Powder River Basin in north-central Wyoming.

Winds decrease significantly after sunset, but will remain a bit elevated compared to normal during the early overnight hours.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.