textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures today and tomorrow.

- Winds increase for Friday mainly from Rock Springs to Casper and into Johnson County. Elevated fire weather conditions possible during the afternoon.

- An unorganized system may bring some chances for precipitation to western portions of the state for Saturday. The remainder of the state looks to remain dry and mild for much of the weekend with closer to seasonable temperatures over the weekend and into early next week.

- Another disjointed system pushes in mid next week with even colder temperatures, but otherwise, much uncertainty in terms of precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Short term forecast in tact with above average temperatures today and Friday. A bit stronger winds across the wind corridor Friday afternoon as the gradient tightens ahead of the next system. Otherwise, QPF amounts have continued its downward trend with minimal impacts west of the Divide for Saturday, as well as the mid week system next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Like a broken record, mild and dry conditions persist across the Cowboy State today. Temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal in large part due to high pressure that is centered over the Four Corners region. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s east of the Divide and mid to upper 50s in the west. After multiple days of similar weather conditions, some change is around the corner for Friday into the weekend.

High pressure looks to be gradually ushered east starting Friday as a trough begins to near the West Coast. This will be the next weather maker for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, this system is already beginning to fall apart and weaken, leading to an unorganized nature and lesser impacts. Friday will see winds increase mainly across the Wind Corridor from Rock Springs to Casper and up into Johnson County. This is the result of southwesterly flow developing ahead of the trough. Winds across the previously mentioned area will range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph at times. Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible during the afternoon on Friday but non-critical fuels and RH above 20 percent should hinder fire concerns. Temperatures on Friday will still be mild across all of the state with somewhat cooler values for Saturday. Precipitation chances begin to increase Saturday mainly across western WY as the system begins to move into the Great Basin region. Model guidance is starting to hint at a rather lack luster event with only sparse chances for showers during the day Saturday into Sunday morning. The best chances will remain across the higher elevations of western WY with a scattered shower or two possible for the lower elevation valleys. Probabilistic guidance currently only shows a 40-70% chance of 0.05 of liquid for the higher elevations and a 20-40% for lower elevations through the weekend. So its currently looking like this systems biggest impacts will be breezy winds and cooler temperatures with precipitation chances continuing to decrease. The system moves out of the region Sunday with dry and mild conditions returning for the start of next week.

Locations east of the Divide will remain mostly if not entirely dry, as southwesterly flow will be rather unfavorable. Mild temperatures persist through the weekend with breezy winds lingering across the Wind Corridor.

Ridging builds back in for the start of next week with mild and dry conditions persisting through the first half. Another disturbance looks to possibly move into the region by the middle of the week. However with every passing day it continues to look more disorganized and currently looks to be an open wave by the time it moves through. That being said, there could be some precipitation associated with it but overall it will be light in nature. Favored locations would be the higher elevations of western and central WY. Some precipitation cannot be ruled out for the lower elevations but warm temperatures should keep it in the form of rain.

Looking farther ahead into the end of next week and into the weekend, there may be another chance for a disturbance. Confidence is low this far out with way too much uncertainty to go into further detail but at this time it may be the best chance for any notable precipitation if things can come together properly.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1026 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout the forecast period. High-level clouds move in west to east across the area starting at 00Z Friday, but bring no terminal impacts. KCPR will have gusts of 20 to 25 knots through 23Z today. Friday morning winds start light, but again KCPR sees southwest winds increasing throughout the morning, gusting 20 to 25 knots by 18Z. All other terminals see winds less than 10 knots throughout the TAF period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.