textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Record breaking warmth, gusty winds, and dry conditions are expected to occur today. This will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening.

- An isolated virga shower cannot be ruled out this evening across southern WY.

- A frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures for Thursday along with precipitation chances to some higher and lower elevations of northern WY.

- Dry and warm conditions return for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Another round of high temperature records were broken across the Cowboy State Tuesday. In total, 7 climate locations saw new or tied record high temperatures as values got into the low to mid 70s east of the Divide and middle to upper 60s west of the Divide. More of the same is likely to occur today, as temperatures once again climb to well above normal values.

As mentioned earlier, another day of record breaking temperatures is expected to occur today. 700mb temperatures increase as a result of the potent high to the south pushing farther north. Compared to yesterday, these temperatures have adjusted slightly. The values across northwestern WY have cooled to values around 2-3C. This is likely the result of the high not extending as far to the north as originally thought. Temperatures will still warm the farther south and east you go, with central WY seeing values around 7C to 10C. Southern WY, mainly Sweetwater County, still looks to see 700mb temperatures around 10C to 12C. These values will still likely translate to near or even record breaking temperatures for the lower elevations of southern WY and east of the Divide. The current forecast has highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s east of the Divide. Southern WY sees values reach the mid to upper 70s, while western valleys look to get into the low 70s. Probabilistic guidance has changed slightly, showing central and northern basins having a 60-80% of seeing highs reach or exceed 80F. Southern WY has remained mostly unchanged with a 50-80% chance of seeing highs exceed 75F. Daily high temperature records and even all-time March high temperature records may once again be in jeopardy. Other locations across central and northern WY have a lower confidence in seeing new monthly records, but daily records will certainly be on the table.

Aside from record breaking temperatures, the main focus today will be on widespread critical fire weather conditions. Winds will begin to strengthen late this morning into the early afternoon. This is the result of a nearing disturbance further tightening the pressure gradient. 700mb winds are not too concerning in regards to high wind hazards, but with values of 30 to 50 knots the fire weather concerns will only be exacerbated. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected to be widespread across lower elevations Wednesday. Periodic gusts of 50 mph or more will be possible across central basins and along the Cody Foothills with chances ranging from 40 to 70%. Min RH values are forecast to decrease further, ranging from 10 to 15% across nearly all lower elevations. The combination of record breaking temperatures, gusty winds, and low min RH values will create widespread critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening. Due to this, Red Flag Warnings have been issued and will go into effect this afternoon across nearly all lower elevations besides western valleys. Some additional higher elevation areas have been added to the Red Flag Warning due to the curing of fuels. These locations include Casper Mtn along with the southern Bighorns and Bridger Mtns.

A cold front begins to move across the state Thursday morning bringing with it cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to parts of the state. Hi-res models have shown some new locations that may have chances to see showers. The first location looks to be across southern WY from Rock Springs to Casper during the evening on Wednesday. Some very weak splotches of instability may be capable of fueling the development of an isolated shower or even a weak thunderstorm. However, due to the overall dryness of the lower atmosphere, little to no precipitation would reach the surface. Chances for this occurring currently sit around 10-30%. The other location is along the eastern Bighorn Basin and portions of Johnson County as the front moves through Thursday morning. These locations would have a better chance of seeing moisture reach the surface due to a moistening of the atmosphere as the front moves through. Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough for any precipitation to fall as rain. The last location is the northern Bighorns, where a quick inch or two of snow may fall over the highest peaks of the northern range Thursday.

As the front moves south Thursday, it looks to stall over central WY. This will lead to warmer and drier conditions lingering across southern WY during the day. Winds look to remain gusty across much of the state Thursday with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Stronger gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible across southern WY ahead of the front. Otherwise, Thursday will see cooler temperatures ranging from the 50s to mid 60s with the warmest temperatures being over southern WY. As a result of the front stalling and not making its way through southern WY, critical fire weather conditions look likely. So the Red Flag Warnings for southern WY have been extended into Thursday evening.

The remainder of the week into the weekend will see high pressure attempt to re-establish itself post frontal passage. This looks to take a little time so warming will be gradual with temperatures getting back into the 70s by Saturday and persisting into early next week. As for the next chances for widespread precipitation across lower elevations, there remains some indications of an unsettled pattern developing for the start of April. However, at this time confidence remains low and with this falling around April 1st it would not come as a surprise if this was just a cruel April Fools joke.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1018 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A cold front approaches from the north this afternoon and evening, with strong wind from the west ahead of this front. Skies will remain SCT-BKN200 across most of the area through this evening. Wind will shift northerly behind the from starting around 08Z at KCOD pushing through KWRL by 10Z, KCPR by 11Z, KRIW by 12Z, and KLND by 13Z Thursday. The cold front will not make it west of the Continental Divide until Thursday afternoon/evening.

Wind gusts this afternoon and evening will range from 25-35 knots on average, with some gusts as high as 40 knots possible at KCPR, KRKS, and KRIW. A lull in wind will occur this evening into tonight before the cold front passes, but wind will still remain about 10-15 knots at most terminals. Then, wind will increase once again by mid morning to early afternoon, Thursday for all terminals. Some low clouds will develop at KCOD and KCPR behind the cold front tonight/early Thursday morning. For now kept them as SCT020-030 due to how dry the cold front will be, although it may become a ceiling at times. Will re-evaluate for 00Z and 06Z TAF issuance.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today. Record breaking warmth, dry conditions and gusty winds will be key contributers to this. Winds strengthen late in the morning with gusts of 30 to 50 mph possible at times. Min RH values will drop to 10-15 percent across nearly all lower elevations. A few virga showers may be possible over southern WY this evening with a dry lightning strike or two not out of the question. A cold front moves through Thursday morning improving conditions over central and northern WY. However, due to it stalling, critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across southern WY for Thursday afternoon and evening.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ275-276- 280>283-285-289-300.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ277>279.