textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation has diminished for the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Winds have diminished but still elevated with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph for points east of the Divide.

- Gusty winds exceeding 50 mph persist into Thursday with the windiest locations likely being across the Absarokas, Cody Foothills, and Wind Corridor from Casper to Rock Springs.

- Dry, mild, and breezy conditions prevail through the remainder of the week into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1108 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Much of the forecast remains on track with little change in comparison to the previous discussion. Showers look to gradually dissipate over western WY with precipitation chances shifting to parts of northern and central WY this afternoon and evening. Hi-res models have indicated the possibility for a few rumbles of thunder as showers pop up east of the Divide. Otherwise widespread strong gusty winds remain mostly unchanged with these gusty winds likely to persist into Thursday for portions of the CWA. At this time confidence has not increased regarding the possibility for High Wind criteria over the Absarokas and Cody Foothills. Due to this High Wind Watches remain with the possibility for an upgrade coming with the next forecast package overnight. Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Thursday due to the combination of low RH, gusty winds, and dry fuels. The areas of concern remain across portions of Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties. However, at this time no fire related highlights will be issued. The rest of the forecast period sees warm and mostly dry conditions prevail. High temperatures are forecast to remain within the mid to upper 50s east of the Divide. Locations west of the Divide will see a more gradual warm up with highs eventually reaching the mid to upper 40s by the end of the week. Precipitation chances look to return to western WY for the start of next week. At this time any chances for precipitation east of the Divide remains very low. February will likely end up being one of the warmest on record across numerous climate sites. The same can be said for the meteorological winter, which is from Dec to Feb, as nearly all climate sites are expected to see the warmest winter on record.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

There are two key features present on 09Z water vapor imagery. The first is a fetch of Pacific moisture embedded within strong west- northwesterly flow and the second is a shortwave trough near the Montana/Canada border. The strong jet aloft is ushering the Pacific moisture into the region and will remain located over Wyoming today, bringing precipitation to the west and widespread wind. Expect temperatures today to be slightly warmer than yesterday due to more wind.

This abundant moisture, combined with favorable orographics, has brought heavy snow to the western mountains over the last 24 hours or so. Expect this moderate to heavy snow to continue through much of the day today across the western mountains. The current forecast reflects these areas, especially locations above 9,000 ft, seeing anywhere from 6 to 12 (70%-95% chance) inches through 5PM this evening. Thus, the Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 5PM for the Yellowstone National Park, and the Absaroka, Wind River, Teton, Salt River, and Wyoming Mountain Ranges. An additional 4 to 6 (70% chance) inches are expected across the Bighorn Mountains, including over Powder River Pass, through 5 PM this evening, so the Winter Weather Advisory also remains in effect. As for Jackson Hole Valley, the predominate precipitation type is expected to be rain with a 90% chance of temperatures remaining above 35 degrees F. Precipitation rates will overall be less today as drier air begins in infiltrate the low levels, so it is not likely that a prolonged period of snow will occur. Given that precipitation will largely fall as rain, and occasionally as a rain/snow mix, the Winter Weather Advisory for Jackson Hole Valley has been cancelled. The previously mentioned shortwave trough, and associated front, will traverse south across Wyoming this afternoon and evening and quickly cut available moisture off to the area. Light snow could linger over the mountains through the overnight hours with minimal accumulations.

As mentioned, widespread strong to high winds are expected today. The shortwave trough will be shifting south today and orient the core of the upper level jet to be directly over Wyoming with mean winds of 125kts to 140kts. Closer to the surface, westerly winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching shortwave from Canada. Wind gusts ranging from 35mph to 65mph will be common across most of the area today, with the greatest winds occurring between 10AM and 6PM. The strongest winds will coincide with the shortwave's vorticity maximum. Wind gusts of 50 to 65mph are most likely (80% to 95% chance) across the Wind River Basin, Natrona County, much of Sweetwater County, southern Lincoln County, and the eastern Wind River Mountains. Occasional gusts above 70 mph (40% to 70%) are possible in wind prone locations such as around South Pass and Outer Drive in Casper. High Wind Warnings are in effect today across these locations.

Northwesterly flow will be evident on Thursday behind the shortwave and as a ridge builds over the West Coast with little available moisture. Wyoming will be positioned in the left entrance region of an upper level jet to the south and in the right exit region of an upper jet to the north. This is a region where downward motion is favored, thus higher winds at the surface. The main story for Thursday is wind and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across parts of the area. Let's first discuss wind. A tight pressure gradient is expected across the entire area, especially over the Absarokas. Mean 700mb winds across the Absarokas are forecast to be anywhere from 50kts to 70kts, and with flow being more west to northwesterly, strong gap winds are forecast to develop in the Clark to Cody areas. There is a 85% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph and a 35% to 40% chance of gusts exceeding 70 mph. Given these probabilities, a High Wind Watch will be issued for the Absaroka Mountains and the Cody Foothills beginning Thursday morning.

Wind will also be present across the Wind Corridor due to 700mb winds between 30kts and 40kts. These winds are expected to translate to the surface, so frequent westerly gusts of 30 to 45 mph (80% to 95% chance) expected. Given deep mixing and a drier airmass behind today's front, relative humidities are forecast to fall in the 15% to 25% range across Natrona County, southern Johnson County, and across the Wind River Basin. These low relative humidities could even be too high as gusty winds could lower them more. It is important to note, that last weeks snow has been melting due to the warm temperatures and gusty winds so the top layers of ground could be more saturated. However, more drying is expected today. Given these lower relative humidity values, gusty winds, and dry fuels, elevated to near critical fire weather is expected for the aforementioned areas Thursday afternoon.

There is good consensus among ensemble members that unsaturated, northwesterly flow will be in place Thursday through Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to be near normal (upper 30s to low 40s) across western Wyoming and 10 to 15 degrees above normal (50s) elsewhere. The West Coast ridge begins to shift east and flatten late Saturday into Sunday as a trough and associated closed low develops over the Southwest. This will allow for Pacific moisture to make its return and bring our next shot at mountain snow and low elevation rain and/or snow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 930 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites for the entirety of the period. Winds remain elevated overnight at COD/RKS with gusts up to 25kts. These winds will increase to 35kts after 16-17Z with daytime heating and mixing to the surface. Increasing winds at CPR/RIW/PNA/JAC after 17-18Z as well with gusts up to 18-25kts along the same lines. Winds diminish after 00-02Z with radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and shallow inversion. Winds, however remain elevated at COD/RKS/CPR due to funneling and southward LLJ remaining. Some high clouds will be the extent of sky conditions remaining dry throughout.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST Thursday through Friday evening for WYZ002.

High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST Thursday through Thursday evening for WYZ003.