textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Today's highs are forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s east of the Continental Divide and across southern Wyoming. Temperatures across the west are forecast to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Light snow chances (30%) push into Yellowstone early this afternoon before becoming more widespread (80-90% chance) after sunset tonight across the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains and Yellowstone. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these locations from 5PM Sunday through 5PM Monday for snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches.

- With above normal temperatures and gusty 20 to 40 mph winds, elevated fire weather conditions are possible for areas east of the Continental Divide and across southern Wyoming today and Monday.

- Cooler temperatures and multiple chances (30%-60%) of low elevation light rain and/or snow exist Monday evening through late Wednesday. However, minimal accumulations are forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

09Z satellite water vapor imagery shows flow aloft becoming more zonal over western Wyoming while northwesterly flow remains over the rest of the area. The zonal flow is ushering Pacific moisture into the area, evident by increased cloud cover, and will bring the return of winter to the west as early as late morning today/Sunday. The strongest winds aloft, and associated moisture, will be focused over Montana and northwestern Wyoming much of the daylight hours today. A weak embedded disturbance is forecast to sweep over northwestern portions early this afternoon and bring light snow chances mainly to Yellowstone National Park. There is a 90% chance that snow amounts during the daylight hours will be less than 0.5 inches across the highest terrain of Yellowstone.

The real show for the west begins around sunset today. By 00Z/5PM today, flow across the entire state becomes zonal and allows most of western Wyoming to fully tap into the aforementioned Pacific moisture. With the available moisture and embedded shortwaves traversing the area, snow chances across the west will quickly ramp up after sunset and persist through most of the day on Monday. The greatest snow amounts are expected across Yellowstone National Park and the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains. From 5PM Sunday through 5PM Monday there is 90% chance of at least 6 inches of snow and 50% of at least 9 inches. Given these high probabilities and gusty 20 mph to 35 mph gusty winds due to a tightening pressure gradient, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas beginning 5PM today/Sunday until 5PM Monday. The highest elevations of the Tetons and Yellowstone could see 15 to 18 inches of snow during this time period, but due to widespread amounts below 12 inches and given that Teton and Togwotee Passes are forecast to see up to 8 inches (60% chance), opted with only an advisory. The highest snowfall accumulations are forecast to occur between 11PM Sunday and 11AM Monday along and behind a cold front. Only light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (20%-60% chance) are expected for Jackson Hole Valley and Star Valley.

While western Wyoming will see snow, the rest of the forecast area will see gusty winds and possible elevated fire weather conditions, especially on Monday. Flow aloft today/Sunday will generally be northwesterly through early afternoon before becoming zonal with weak disturbances traversing overhead. By early afternoon, 700 mb 30kt to 40kt 700mb develop across the Absarokas, the eastern Wind River Mountains, and from South Pass to southern Johnson County. With deep mixing expected across these areas, especially the southern half of Johnson County, there is a 80%-90%+ chance of 30 mph to 40 mph wind gusts this afternoon and tonight across these areas. By Monday morning, the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the approaching cold front. This will bring widespread gusty 20 mph to 40 mph winds to most the area. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible both days, especially on Monday, as a result of gusty winds, temperatures both days remaining 20 to 30 degrees above normal, and relatively dry conditions across southern Wyoming and east of the Continental Divide.

By Monday evening, the main shortwave and associated cold front makes its way east and brings isolated precipitation chances (10%- 30%) to the rest of the area. 700mb temperatures ahead of the front are forecast to range from +1C to +5C and quickly fall behind the front to -5C to -10C by Monday night. This means that any precipitation east of the Divide will likely first fall as light rain and transition to light snow.

There is good consensus among model guidance that cooler, albeit still above normal, temperatures will grip the state Tuesday through at least Friday. There is also good consensus that more widespread snow chances (20%-70%) exist Tuesday through late Wednesday. These snow chances are associated with a Tuesday disturbance preceding a more potent shortwave and front traversing the state on Wednesday. The current forecast reflects relatively light snow amounts across the area, with a light dusting for low elevations to up to 7 inches for the western mountains. Nonetheless, any amount of moisture is welcome as this has been a relatively dry winter thus far.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Wind will be the main concern, most notably at KCOD and KCPR which will both see gusts nearing 30 knots at times - KCOD during the front half of the period and KCPR during the back half. KRIW will also see gusty winds at the start of the period to around 20 knots. Otherwise, mid and high cloud decks will increase after 00Z Monday as a system approaches from the west. The mountains around KJAC may see snow before 00Z leading to some mountain obscurations, though impacts to KJAC are expected to hold off until the next period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Monday for WYZ001-012.