textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak disturbance arrives Tuesday morning. This will bring very light snow to northern Wyoming, as well as wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph for much of the area.

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected across the area through most of the week.

- The next weak system is set to arrive Friday bringing colder temperatures and the potential for light mountain snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 1229 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The forecast is on track today as the weather pattern remains largely unchanged. After a mild day with calmer wind, the next weak wave within the northwesterly flow arrives tomorrow morning. As noted below, this one has a little more moisture and consequently the potential for light snow (an inch or two on the high end), mainly across the Absarokas and Bighorns. Light flurries are also possible (20-30%) across lower elevations of northern Wyoming during the daylight hours Tuesday, though again accumulations are expected to be very light, generally under half an inch. Wind will be the more notable impact tomorrow, with the strongest gusts 50 to 60 mph in northern Johnson County.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The H5 ridge holds in place yet another day, deflecting larger weather systems and most moisture well away from the region. Yesterday's shortwave was enough to bring a few nuisance flurries to central WY, but not much to speak of otherwise. Today will see decreasing cloud cover as the wave departs. Westerly winds will start ramping upwards again for higher elevations and across central WY due to the approach of the next wave. Winds will help keep temperatures mild again, with highs around 40 east of the Divide and across Sweetwater County, while western valleys hold around 30 again.

The next wave on Tuesday will bring another surge of north winds, but is not bringing any appreciable cold weather along with it, which will hold back into later in the afternoon. Temperatures most of the day will again rise into the 30s and 40s. There is enough moisture to bring snow into the higher elevations of the Bighorns, but wringing out more than 1 to 2 inches will be tough. Some light precip may drift into the lower elevations east of the divide, but with mild temps, expect only light drizzle/flurries at best. North winds with this wave will jump again east of the divide, with gusts 30 to 30 for the Bighorn and Wind River basins, and another 50 to 60 mph event across Johnson County. A trailing wave sweeps southward across the Dakotas on Wednesday. This is too far east to provide any precip, but will reinforce the gusty north winds, especially across Johnson County.

Thursday looks to be a mild day again, as the ridge axis shifts eastward along the Rockies for the day. For the upcoming weekend, confidence remains lower, as models continue to vary on cold air and precip with the next system. There is a considerable cold pool racing southward into the central US, but how much of the cold air gets into Wyoming is the difficult part of the forecast. Will keep a close eye on these.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1017 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through much of the TAF period. Some mid to high level cirrus clouds may develop this afternoon and evening. Winds remain light at mostly all terminals with the only exceptions being KCPR, KPNA, and KRKS near the start of the TAF period. Other terminals like KRIW and KCOD will see winds increase this evening around 02Z Tuesday. Winds generally will be around 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots at the aforementioned terminals. Scattered to broken cloud decks begin to develop overnight into the early morning hours Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to persist with cloud decks remaining above MVFR. A weak frontal passage will lead to increased winds at nearly all terminals by the end of the TAF period. There also looks to be a shift in wind direction as the front passes with winds going from westerly to more northerly.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.