textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and damp afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Divide as the west improves with clearing northwest to southeast.

- Mountain snow lingers across the Winds with rain shower activity persisting east of the Divide, especially upslope into the Wind River Basin and into eastern Sweetwater to Natrona Counties.

- Clearing skies and diminished rain shower activity by early to mid Thursday morning giving way to widespread freezing temperatures for Friday morning.

- Warming and dry trend for Friday and over the weekend into early next week ahead of the next system by Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Mid-day IR shows improving cloud cover to the northwest portions of the CWA, expanding south, west of the Divide. Cooler cloud tops across the south and central parts of the state, where the ample rain shower activity continues on the backside of the low. Radar shows the Wind River Basin continuing to fill in from the east and southeast, stretching to the south and east across eastern Sweetwater to much of Natrona Counties. This will slowly diminish into the evening hours as it regresses southeast with the low itself. It become more progressive with the newest Hi- Res data, suggesting rain shower activity to be out of the CWA by sunrise, with a few drizzly portions of southeastern Natrona with upslope of Casper Mountain. Very minor snow possible in these higher elevations of Natrona, but any activity for the Winds will end early this afternoon if not already.

Beyond that, expect clearing skies through the afternoon and evening. This will give way to hard freezing temperatures for Friday morning through 9AM, giving this the last of the freezing headlines until Spring. Ridging then builds in quite strong Friday and over the weekend, seeing widespread 60s east of the Divide in the afternoon, to even low 70s for eastern counties of Johnson and Natrona through Monday. Next up will be another GOA low pushing down into the Pacific northwest, deepening and elongating with its progression south and east with increased divergence aloft. The question, as it was with this last system, is how progressive it becomes staying more closed off or an open wave. Stay tuned for details in the coming days, but enjoy the warming trend for the weekend as it will be great for those visiting the parks for one last hoorah before winter starts knocking for good.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The main driver in the forecast this morning remains me of one of the better movies of the mid 1990s, Leaving Las Vegas. It is because the upper level low that has brought the clouds and showers of the past few days that was centered near Las Vegas is now leaving and will be making a turn toward to the northeast, crossing Colorado through tonight before moving into the central Plains states for the end of the week. And it will continue be the main driver in the weather for about the next 24 to 36 hours.

Satellite imagery shows some more enhanced cloud tops heading toward Wyoming, with showers across much of the southern two thirds of the area. There remains some uncertainty this morning in regards to how widespread the showers will be today though. Some ensemble members, as well as the operational GFS, keep the low further south, keeping more of the area mainly dry, with showers confined largely south and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Green River line. Other members, as well as the operational European model, bring the low closer and keep showers across most of the southern two thirds of the area through this evening. There is some agreement in showers starting to end from northwest to southeast starting after midnight tonight, with all showers finally over by noon on Thursday.

Now we turn to precipitation amounts. Far northwestern Wyoming should be done with showers. As for an additional quarter of an inch starting at 6 am this morning, the 1 out of 2 chance of an additional quarter inch or more runs roughly south and east of a Kaycee to east of Riverton to Rock Springs line. However, precipitation has been underperforming in most locations. The heaviest amounts, with around a 2 out of 5 chance of three quarter inches of rain are mainly in Natrona, southeastern Fremont and southern Sweetwater Counties.

And finally, we talk about snow. Amounts over the passes have been rather small so far. Snow levels will reach the lowest point early this morning. With 700 millibar temperatures generally dropping to between minus 2 to minus 3, which would lower snow levels to around 7000 to 7500 feet. This would keep the lower elevations largely rain, although there could be some wet snowflakes from time to time, especially if precipitation is heavier. As for an additional inch starting at 6 am this morning, it mainly across the Wind River Range, the Green and Rattlesnake Ranges and also Casper Mountain where there is a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 1 inch or greater. When we bump it up to 3 inches, it is again mainly above 8500 feet. However, the NBM ensemble has a couple of interesting things. It still has a greater than 2 out of 5 chance of 3 inches over the higher elevations of South Pass. I am giving some thought to possibly extending the Winter Weather Advisory another 6 hours or so, when snow levels should rise another 1000 feet or so. This will likely be a gametime decision based on road conditions when we get closer to expiration, which is at 6 am. Other locations that could see over 3 inches include Casper Mountain, but all guidance keeps the chance of over 6 inches to less than 1 out of 5. The other location is the Green and Rattlesnake Range, but this would be the higher elevations with no impacts. Snow should really taper off after midnight with just about all areas done by Thursday morning.

And you think we are done, but wait, there's more! And that will be the strong wind tonight. The upper level will initiate some lee cyclogenesis over Colorado and tighten the pressure gradient as the low deepens. This will be mainly after midnight tonight and into Thursday morning, although it will linger longer over Johnson County. Most areas East of the Divide as well as eastern Sweetwater County have at least a 3 out of 5 chance of wind gusts past 30 mph. The areas prone to the cold advection / north flow pattern, like Johnson County and portions of the Big Horn Basin have at least a 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 40 mph. High wind looks unlikely, as 700 millibar wind looks to top out at around 40 knots, and I would likely to see 50 knots for that. Wind should decrease Thursday afternoon as the low moves into the Plains states.

And this brings us to the last main concern, a possibly killing freeze. Yes, most locations are a few weeks past the average first freeze, so we have been living on borrowed time. But many areas will have a good chance Thursday night as the wind decreases and the sky the sky clears as the low moves away. Thursday night there is a very good chance of that killing freeze. Just about the entire area has at least a 2 out of 3 chance of temperatures of 28 degrees or below. Freeze warnings will likely be needed, but we will let future shifts issue these as we still have rain and snow to deal with.

Following that, it looks like some pleasant fall weather should return for several days as ridging builds back into the area. This means a mainly clear sky and temperatures near to somewhat above normal from Friday through the weekend and into early next week. The next chance for decent precipitation looks to hold off until the middle of next week when the next Pacific system approaches the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Rain showers and associated MVFR to IFR flight conditions are forecast at KRIW and KLND through 03Z and at KCPR and KRKS through 09Z, at the latest. All other terminals are forecast to remain dry this TAF period. Once rain moves out of the terminals, cloud cover is also forecast to diminish. However, low clouds are expected to push into KRKS and east of the Continental Divide terminals (KCPR, KCOD, KRIW, KLND, and KWRL) on Thursday morning. There is uncertainty in how dense cloud cover will be, with the greatest confidence in MVFR ceilings at KCPR Thursday morning.

A gusty north wind pushes into most terminals after 05Z Thursday and be present for a few hours. KRKS and KWRL are the exceptions where gusty winds persist most of day on Thursday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030.