textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers into the early Thursday morning for central and northern Wyoming (~20% coverage).

- Warmer and breezy Thursday afternoon with 20-30% coverage for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for many of the same areas. - Dry and warming trend into the weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

IR depicts a minor shortwave propagating across the northwest flow aloft to the north. This is bringing some isolated showers for portions of northern/central parts of the CWA through the early Thursday morning hours with no impacts expected. The meridional longwave pattern continues to the north of the state with the PFJ remaining across southern parts of Canada to Montana then through the Dakotas and upper Great Lake region. With the aforementioned northwest flow aloft and sufficient divergence for Thursday afternoon, a strengthened gradient near the surface will give way to gusty winds across much of the CWA seeing gusts as high as 35-40 mph for southern and eastern counties for the lower elevations outside of the higher mountains. There will be enough instability for portions of central to northern Wyoming (~300-400 J/kg) and decent lapse rates to render some isolated thunderstorm activity. Best chances (20-30%) will be from south of Cody off the Absaroka foothills to the Owl Creeks/southern Bighorns. There may be an isolated storm before sunset for Johnson County as well near Buffalo, with gusty outflows the main hazard to speak of outside of the lightning activity. Regardless of the amplitude of the activity, these will diminish by sunset and towards midnight Thursday. QPF amounts look to be minimal as these will have progressive movement with southeast storm motion throughout.

Beyond that, expect clearing and another warm and breezy Friday afternoon into Saturday as northwest flow continues aloft. Another subtle shortwave will affect portions of the north/central parts of the state with minimal impacts once again Saturday afternoon. Similar conditions as Thursday afternoon/evening for Saturday, with ridging building back in from the west for Sunday and into next week. Ample convergence aloft will yield even warmer temperatures into next work week with widespread 80s expected east of the Divide/70s to the west. Upper level higher heights continue to build throughout the week with the next system to look at not until week's end into the following weekend looking to be more potent according to the more accurate EC for long term solutions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the entirety of the period. Some ongoing showers this morning will affect CPR between 13-17Z to bring lower but VFR ceilings. Otherwise, afternoon thunderstorms possible (20-30%) for COD/WRL/CPR between 21-01Z as lower ceilings linger through sunset. Other locations will remain dry as winds increase with daytime heating after around 19-21Z, highest at RKS up to 35kts. Winds will diminish after 02-03Z with radiational cooling through the overnight into Friday morning becoming 10kts or less with mid levels clouds remain before clearing into the next TAF cycle.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.