textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures on the decline into the evening and overnight hours as the Extreme Heat Warning expires at 9PM.

- A few scattered thunderstorms for western mountains, as well as the northern Bighorns through sunset. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 to 50 mph possible with frequent lightning the main hazard of note.

- Temperatures trend down slightly beginning Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming more widespread through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No changes with the overall key messages with this update. As what typically occurs, models are not great at projecting the weakly forced convection during the afternoon, as seen the past few days over western Wyoming. Have therefore bumped up coverage for shower and thunderstorm chances a bit. Most activity looks to occur over the northwest mountains. Enough moisture is starting to make it into the area that isolated convection could produce rain that reaches the ground. Outflow gusts will be the greatest concern, especially around Yellowstone and the Absarokas. Gusts up to 45 mph are the likely outcome, though some gusts up to 60 mph are possible for stronger storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Another hot day is in store for the area as the strong ridge persists across the region. Temperatures will even tick up a few degrees east of the Divide as heights subtly rise again and cooler air is displaced farther north. Given the widespread highs from 95 to 105+ degrees, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through sunset today. Otherwise, elevated monsoonal moisture will increase again today leading to another afternoon of convection. This will similarly be most focused across the western mountains. With temperature/dewpoint depressions as large as 70 degrees, any virga or rain shower could produce strong outflow wind gusts. This is again expected to be fairly isolated. While an easterly breeze will pick up east of the Divide this afternoon, wind is still not expected to be widely strong enough for fire weather highlights. Regardless, all areas can expect at least elevated fire weather conditions again today.

The ridge is expected to shift farther east on Wednesday. This will allow for increasing monsoonal moisture advection and another uptick in convection, especially as a shortwave progress through the southwest flow over the area. Temperatures will decrease in response, though only marginally - high are still expected to be in the 90s to around 100 across the lower elevations.

Moisture advection will be further amplified on Thursday and Friday as PWAT values approach one inch, or around 150% of normal for this time of year. Accordingly, rain chances will increase across the area beginning Wednesday, with Thursday appearing most favorable for widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage at the moment.

Ensemble cluster guidance continues to favor anomalously high 500mb heights through the weekend. While this would not bring any big pattern changes, additional smaller disturbances and continued monsoonal moisture is likely to lead to more rain chances across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 950 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for the entirety of the period. Storm activity has waned for the evening and overnight hours with some mid level SCT-BKN clouds and relatively light winds 10kts or less. Winds increase at CPR/JAC due to the stronger gradients further west and east after 19-20Z coupled with daytime heating and mixing. Low chance (<10%) lower clouds at COD between 08-16Z but confidence low carrying only a few at that time. Otherwise, increasing storm activity once again, mainly between 21-03Z, lingering a bit later further south at RKS. Storms develop near or just east of JAC around 20Z being short lived in a couple hours pushing east. CPR will not see any activity with storms diminishing towards sunset before reaching that far east. Otherwise, similar conditions into the overnight hours Wednesday night as it is Tuesday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.