textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Saturday will again be unseasonably warm (10-20 degrees above normal for many areas), dry, and breezy. This leads to elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across central Wyoming, mainly between 12 PM and 6 PM.

- The next chance of precipitation arrives Saturday night and Sunday across western Wyoming. Light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches occur in the mountains, up to around 6 inches in the Tetons, with only a morning dusting in the valleys.

- Precipitation continues across the western mountains through Monday, while many lower elevation locations see unseasonably warm temperatures prevail through at least Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

As detailed below, strong winds and an accompanying fire weather threat are the primary concerns in the short term. Late-morning observations already show near-critical fire weather conditions across the Wind River Basin and portions of Natrona County. Similar to yesterday, wind will be more widespread, with west/northwest gusts of 20 to 40 mph through the afternoon for most locations. Wind will decrease across lower elevations but remain elevated over the mountains of central and northern Wyoming through the overnight hours. Saturday will be similarly warm and dry though with wind a little more limited in both magnitude and spatial extent. Regardless, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected across central Wyoming Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Strong, unsaturated northwest flow prevails over the Intermountain West thanks to an amplifying ridge over the west coast and a broad trough to our north and east. Mean upper level winds range from 90kts to 105kts across the state today. Closer to the surface, mean 700mb winds are forecast to be 30kts to 40kts. This is a long way of saying that today will be another windy day with frequent 25 mph to 40 mph westerly gusts across the entire area. Across the Absarokas, 700mb winds will be amplified due to a localized tight temperature gradient over mountains. There is a 60% to 70% chance of westerly wind gusts of 75 mph, so the High Wind Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MST tonight.

700mb temperatures will also range from 0 to -5C across the entire area, and because deep mixing is expected another unseasonably warm day is expected. Highs across western Wyoming are forecast to be upper 30s and 40s and highs elsewhere across the state to be in the upper 40s to near 60 degrees Fahrenheit. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Wind River Basin and low elevations of Natrona County with these warm temperatures, 25 to 40 mph wind gusts (70%-90% chance), and relative humidity values of 15% or less (60%) this afternoon. There is moderate to high confidence in Red Flag Conditions this afternoon, so a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the aforementioned locations from 11AM to 6PM today. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming and other low elevation locations east of the Continental Divide due the warm temperatures, gusty winds, and minimum relative humidity values between 15%-25%.

The previously mentioned upper level ridge will begin to shift east and push the stronger upper level winds east. However, upper level winds will be in the 70kt to 90kt range so breezy conditions are still expected Saturday afternoon. 700mb temperatures will remain in that 0C to -5C range so expect these warm, above normal temperatures to continue. Thus, another day of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected. By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level ridge will begin to break down and open southern portions of the state up to a return of Pacific moisture. Just as moisture makes its return, a shortwave disturbance will position itself over southern Wyoming. This disturbance and moisture will be enough to support and focus precipitation chances (high elevation snow and low elevation rain) to many locations west of the Continental Divide Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Snow amounts with this are not expected to be anything of note with only a 20% chance of 6 inches of snow for the western mountains through Monday morning.

There is good consensus among model guidance that an upper level trough and associated closed low will push into the Great Basin on Monday and bring more Pacific moisture with it. This results in more widespread precipitation chances on Monday due to the moisture and increased support aloft most. However, because temperatures are still forecast to be unseasonably warm, expect mountain snow and low elevation rain. Precipitation chances will begin to wane on Tuesday as the low pushes east across Colorado. As we get into late next week, there is a reasonable amount of agreement that a longwave trough and an associated cold front will traverse the region. If this comes true, widespread precipitation would be favorable with temperatures dropping closer to normal. Given we are over a week out, the forecast will inevitably change but it is something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period. Mid/high cloud cover over the north departs by sunrise Saturday leaving few clouds until late in the afternoon. Warm air advection mid/high clouds increase from the southwest late Saturday, but conditions remain dry with little more than virga. Gusty westerly wind 10-22kts prevails at KCPR, KCOD, KRKS, and KRIW overnight and much of Saturday. A weak frontal boundary arrives just prior to 00Z/Monday at KCOD, KWRL, and KCPR, swinging the wind around to the north to northeast. Other terminals see a brief uptick in afternoon wind speeds before decreasing between 00Z-02Z/Monday. A few mountain top obscurations are possible late in the period over the highest peaks.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.