textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation chances (40%-90+%) west of the Continental Divide after 5PM today through most of Wednesday. Snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches across the Tetons and Gros Ventre Mountains, the Salt River and Wyoming Ranges, and the western Wind River Range during this timeframe.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 5PM Tuesday until 5PM Wednesday for the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains, where winter travel conditions over Teton Pass are expected.

- Near to above normal temperatures Thursday through Sunday with a few chances for light mountain snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 946 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Things still look on track for snow moving into western Wyoming late this evening and through the day Wednesday. In the west to southwest flow, favored locations will be the Salt/Wyoming, Teton, and western Wind River Ranges. Upper-level dynamics support the most snowfall from mid-Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. There is good confidence (70%) for at least 4 to 6 inches across the higher terrain. Confidence in possible higher amounts is a little shaky, with recent hi-res guidance coming in with a greater spread. Would generally put the chances for greater than 8 inches around 40 percent. The exception here will be the Teton and western Wind River Ranges, where more favored flow has the chance for 8 inches or more around 70 percent. Enhanced snow showers could also bring locally higher snow to other locations. For lower elevations, warm temperatures will make it difficult to produce snow, or if snow does fall, for it to stick and accumulate. Most likely places for notable accumulations would be Star Valley and Jackson Hole, mainly Wednesday morning with cooler temperatures in place before daytime heating.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

The cold front that brought snow to western Wyoming on Monday is now well south of the state, leaving temperatures 10 to 20 degrees cooler compared to this time (1:30AM) on Monday. Weak height rises aloft, with an embedded weak disturbance, spread across the state south to north today with the main impact being increased cloud cover. Light winds and cloud cover will limit the amount of warming from the sun, so expect widespread cooler temperatures today. Today's highs are forecast to be in the 30s west of the Divide and 40s east of the Divide. A light flurry or drizzle cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon across southwestern portions, however, chances are less than 10% due to weak support aloft.

There is good consensus that a more potent shortwave will approach the state from the south and support a warm front moving into the state beginning late this evening. Moisture rich southwesterly flow behind the front will bring the next chances for widespread precipitation west of the Divide tonight and Wednesday. Precipitation with this system will largely be another "mountain snow show" for the Tetons and Gros Ventre Mountains, the Salt River and Wyoming Ranges, and the western Wind River Range. Strong warm air advection, favorable orographics, and the proximity to the left exit region of an upper-level jet will allow for the aforementioned mountain ranges to see anywhere from 4 to 12 inches late tonight through Wednesday night. Low elevations will likely see rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix during this period. Where snow falls, a trace up to 3 inches are possible. No highlights have been issued for the Salt and Wyoming Ranges and the western Wind River Mountains due to impactful snowfall amounts (6 to 12 inches) falling in not widely traveled areas. Salt River Pass has a 40% chance of seeing snow amounts above 4 inches, so we were comfortable not issuing highlights at this time. It is a different story for the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 5PM Tuesday through 5PM Wednesday for the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains for snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with the highest peaks potentially seeing more. Winter travel conditions are expected across Teton Pass with a 95% chance of at least 6 inches and a 70% chance of at least 8 inches of snow by Wednesday evening, so felt more than comfortable issuing the Advisory. Winter travel conditions are possible across Togwotee Pass with an interquartile snow range of 3 to 5 inches. The most likely period of more moderate snowfall rates of 0.5 inch/hour to 1 inch/hour, especially across the Tetons and Teton Pass, is Wednesday 5AM to 5PM. This 12 hour period is when overall dynamics (WAA and upper level divergence) will be maximized.

Deep available moisture will largely be cut off by an upper-level low over California Wednesday evening. However, lingering light mountain snow and low elevation rain, snow, or rain/snow mix is possible (30% to 60%) through Thursday evening across far southern Wyoming and the western mountains. Ensemble guidance is in consensus that the upper-level California low and associated trough will eject eastwards on Friday, cutting off nearly all moisture across Wyoming. This means that Friday and much of Saturday will remain largely dry. Zonal flow with embedded disturbances and some Pacific moisture looks to return to as early as Saturday evening. If this comes to fruition, snow chances (40%-60%) exist for northwestern portions Saturday evening and Sunday. Details are far from clear this early out, but the chances for more western mountain snow are there!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 930 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

VFR conditions will remain in place through 12Z. Marginal MVFR conditions will develop over Lincoln, Sublette and Teton counties by 12Z, as chances for snow chances rapidly increase. Mountain obscurations will be in place over the Salt/Wyoming Ranges, the Tetons and Gros Ventres and the west slopes of the Wind River Mountains by this time as well. Snow will be in place over most of far western portions by 14Z, with IFR/LIFR conditions quickly settling in at KJAC. KJAC will be the most impacted terminal through the TAF period, with these conditions expected through much of the day. VFR conditions are expected to return with snow ending by 02Z. Conditions are expected to stay MVFR at KBPI, KPNA and KRKS through the day, with the possibility for LIFR/IFR visibility at KPNA between 18Z and 21Z. Snow will end across much of the area after 02Z, with marginal VFR conditions in place. Mountain obscurations will remain in place through the end of the period. There is a possibility that snow will return, mainly impact KBPI/KPNA, after 06Z Thursday.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

Conditions are expected to remain dry with most of the precipitation staying on the west side of the Divide. VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period as well. BKN-OVC FL150-200 dropping to FL100-150 between 12Z and 18Z. Winds at KCPR will gradually return to the southwest by 17Z, with gusts up to 30kt occurring by 19Z. These winds will decrease by 01Z.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ012.