textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Compared to the past few days, temperatures this afternoon are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler west of the Continental Divide and 15 to 25 degrees cooler east of the Continental Divide.

- Gusty north to northwest winds through sunset today. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9PM tonight across south and southwest Wyoming due to gusty winds and relative humidity values around 10 percent.

- Mostly dry weather is forecast over the next 7 days, with a warming trend beginning Wednesday. Temperatures warm to the mid to upper 90s by Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A cold front trekked across the state this morning and brought cooler air to the entire area. 11 AM observations are indicating that temperatures east of the Continental Divide are running 10 to 20 degrees cooler and west of the Continental Divide are 5 to 10 cooler than 11 AM yesterday/Sunday. Gusty winds are also present today thanks to a tight surface pressure gradient behind the front and a 60kt to 80kt upper level jet overhead. These gusty 25 to 35 mph winds are contributing to two things on each side of the Continental Divide. Along and east of the Continental Divide a north wind is bringing smoke from the western United States wildfires into the area and causing reduced air quality. The strong west to northwest winds and low relative humidity across south and southwest Wyoming continues to result in critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Fire weather conditions begin to improve around 9PM this evening as both wind diminishes and relative humidity increases. The smoke looks to hang around through at least Tuesday morning due to light east winds overnight keeping the smoke socked in.

The only change made to the forecast was the addition of light rain across northern Wyoming on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough treks across the area. There looks to be just enough mid and low level moisture and lift with the shortwave to support light rain. The northern Bighorn Mountains are expected to have the "greatest" chances of seeing rain due to favorable orographics. However, this will not be a meaningful rain by any means with less than a 15% chance of 0.1" of rain by early Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

WV imagery shows dry slotting conditions for much of the northern Rockies with the main finger of the PFJ well north into Canada. IR shows mainly clear skies for the state with high pressure building in from the south behind a weak shortwave that has pushed through much of the CWA east of the Divide. As such, a weak cold front has pushed through the state affecting mainly portions east of the Divide through early Monday morning. This will result in more of northerly direction for winds and temperatures up to 15 to 20 degrees cooler in the afternoon than that of Sunday. Areas west of the Divide, especially south and southwestern portions of the CWA will not see much of the affects. Westerly winds persist in these areas where gusts up to 30 to 35 mph are likely through sunset before easing into the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday morning. This will continue to the red flag conditions before weaker winds expected Tuesday onward through the work week.

Going forward, expect mainly dry conditions and a slight warming trend through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The only exception will be a shortwave that will skirt by to the northeast, that will have weak PoPs around 15 to 20 percent for the northern Bighorns and into Johnson County Tuesday evening through about midnight. Quick moving and progressive, this will have limited impacts and QPF of note. Temperatures will push back to well above average once again for Thursday and Friday with areas east of the Divide pushing triple digits once again east of the Divide possibly pushing some records as well. Nothing of note on the horizon outside of the increasing temperatures and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, but no strong wind events look to occur as well. Longer term model solutions show a possible pattern change by early to mid next week as the upper level flow and upper high to the south weaken as trough digs down across the Pacific northwest. Time will tell, but in the meantime, enjoy the "cooler" Monday before temperatures push right back up throughout the week with no precipitation of note on the horizon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1046 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected across most terminals with a few exceptions as a result of persistent wildfire smoke. Western terminals such as KJAC, KPNA, KBPI, and KRKS have remained mostly unaffected with VFR conditions prevailing. However, other terminals such as KCOD, KWRL, KRIW, KLND, and KCPR have seen low level wildfire smoke create reduced visibilities at times this morning. This is especially prevalent at KCOD and KWRL where MVFR to even IFR visibilities have occurred. Northeasterly winds may allow for smoke to linger through the afternoon mainly at terminals east of the Divide. As a result of this, TEMPO groups for smoke have been added and may need to be adjusted if conditions do not improve. Otherwise skies are expected to remain clear through the period. Winds increase around the start of the period due to a weak cold front moving through the area. Northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be possible this afternoon and evening. Winds decrease after sunset becoming light across all terminals through the overnight. Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are forecast to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Wildfire smoke may create some mountain obscuration but likely only at low levels and over northern/central WY.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Behind a cold front, fire concerns should lessen across northern and central Wyoming with cooler temperatures and higher humidity. Critical fire weather conditions continue for southern and southwestern portions of the state due to warmer temperatures and lower humidity values below 10 percent Monday afternoon and early evening. Breezy westerly winds up to 30 to 35 mph persist leading to red flag conditions for these areas of the wind corridor.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until 11 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ001>011- 016>020-022.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277>279- 289.