textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across areas east of the Continental Divide through midnight. Locally heavy rain will remain possible with any strong storm that develops.

- High pressure builds across the Rockies for this weekend, bringing another round of heat to the state. Areas of northern and central Wyoming could again reach the upper 90s and lower 100s from Friday through Monday.

- Lingering monsoon moisture and weak disturbances from the Great Basin will continue to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms over western and northwestern Wyoming as well as other higher elevations this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Convection is well under way this early to mid afternoon across western and central WY, with most of the storms across southern and central WY. Still expecting more development over the eastern portions of the Absarokas, Bighorns, and Wind Rivers, moving to the southeast, as a shortwave trough rides over the ridge axis just to our west. The 18Z KRIW sounding not only shows a very moist lower atmosphere, but a significant cap around 500 mb which would limit the vertical extent of any convection. A new-ish Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 PM for some areas due to the possibility of heavy rain falling on now- saturated soils. However, the ground seems to be taking in quite a bit of precipitation given the lack of localized flooding the past two days. Otherwise, welcome showers and thunderstorms are expected through sunset this evening, moving toward southeast WY.

The upper-level ridge axis will slide eastward over western WY on Friday, keeping relatively light winds over the area. A weak shortwave trough is expected to move from the northern Great Basin toward northwestern WY during the afternoon, bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms to west-central WY, then into northern WY during the evening hours. Locally moderate rain and gusty winds up to 30 mph are possible from 4 to 8 PM Friday due to possible thunderstorms. With the ridge axis moving into WY Friday, temperatures are expected to climb about 7 to 10 degrees Friday afternoon, ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday, with the expectation that another shortwave trough will bring increasing afternoon cloudiness and scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

After a day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms yesterday, the overall threat for precipitation decreases some for Thursday. The shortwave trough that swept across the state yesterday is moving into eastern WY, taking most of the thunderstorm activity with it. WV imagery shows the main moisture pool shifting east with it, while a push of drier air moves in from the west. The lack of midlevel energy and the decrease in moisture will keep thunderstorm activity much more isolated today, mainly along the higher elevations of the Absarokas and Winds. With PW values holding near 1.00" late this afternoon, will likely continue the Flash Flood Watch through this evening, but only for those mountain ranges, after yesterday's saturating rainfall keeps some watershed prone for more runoff.

The H5 ridge builds across the Rockies for the weekend, centered still on the Four Corners region. Temperatures jump nearly 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Saturday will see continued warming, with highs from the mid 90s for western valleys and south WY, to upper 90s and lower 100s for northern and central WY. Monsoon moisture will still be able to draw into the state, but will be decreased enough to limit shower activity to higher elevations. The flooding risk with these will also be much lower. This warmer pattern with more isolated daytime showers on higher elevations look to remain the trend well into the upcoming week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 946 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight into Friday morning. Convection will develop across western Wyoming Friday afternoon and may spread eastward Friday evening. The best chance (30-40%) of rain showers and thunderstorms will be at KBPI and KPNA from 21Z Friday to 03Z Saturday. All other terminals have about a 10-15% chance of a shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening. Conditions may briefly drop to MVFR/IFR in the strongest storms.

Wind will be light tonight into Friday morning with most terminals only around 5 knots. Wind will increase at most terminals Friday afternoon to around 10 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots. Stronger gusts up to 30 knots may occur with thunderstorm downdrafts and outflows.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES