textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated winds overnight with mild morning lows east of the Divide, 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

- Mild and dry conditions look to prevail Friday and through much of the upcoming weekend with some breezy winds and elevated fire weather conditions.

- Precipitation chances return mainly across western WY for the start of next week while other locations remain mild and dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 1042 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Much of the previous forecast remains on track with little change. Winds have increased across much of the state this morning and gusty winds will persist through the afternoon and evening. Gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be common with isolated gusts in excess of 55 mph possible especially nearby the Cody Foothills and Absarokas. Dry weather, mild temperatures, and gusty winds have created elevated to near critical fire weather conditions today. The main areas of concern will be across portions of Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties. These concerns are likely to continue into Friday with slightly weaker winds. Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal through the upcoming weekend into the start of next week. The current highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 50s east of the Divide and mid to upper 40s west of the Divide. A disturbance looks to possibly impact portions of the state during the first half of next week. At this time western WY looks to have the best chances for precipitation. However, models have begun to show the possibility for precipitation to fall mainly as rain, due to warm temperatures. The only exception would be the highest elevations of western mountains but still snow amounts would be limited. A better chance for accumulating snowfall looks to arrive by mid week but at this time confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

09Z water vapor imagery shows an amplifying ridge over the CONUS West Coast and a broad longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, placing Wyoming in unsaturated northwest flow aloft. This flow is rather strong with an upper level jet core (110kts) positioned over the Central Rockies and another upper jet located over Montana/southern Canada. This places Wyoming in an area where convergence aloft and downward motion is maximized. This convergence aloft, combined with weak embedded disturbances traversing the state and a tight surface pressure gradient, will allow for widespread gusty winds today. On Friday, wind will still be ongoing as the upper level jet situates itself over Wyoming.

The strongest winds are expected to occur across the Absaroka Mountains and the Cody Foothills due to a tightening temperature gradient and localized gap winds. This afternoon, there is a 75% to 90% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph and a 50% to 80% chance of 65 mph gusts in an area from Cody to Clark. Additionally, across the Absarokas, there is a 50% to 70% of wind gusts exceeding 75 mph both Thursday and Friday. Given these high probabilities, the High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings. On Friday, confidence is not as high for gusts exceeding 55 mph (40% to 80%) across the Cody Foothills. However, this will need to be monitored for any highlight extensions. Elsewhere across the state, especially for the Wind Corridor and Upper Wind River Basin, gusty 30 to 40 mph west to northwest winds will be common. Higher elevations and wind prone locations could see gusts exceeding 50 mph both days.

There is high confidence (95%+) in dry weather and near to much above normal temperatures through Saturday. This combined with the expected gusty winds, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast across parts of the area. The areas of greatest concern are the Wind Corridor, especially Natrona County, and the Wind River Basin. With gusty winds and deep mixing, relative humidities will easily be able to bottom out in the 15% to 20% range through Saturday. There is slightly more concern for elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Friday due to temperatures east of the Divide being in the upper 50s (around 15 degrees above normal). There is a 50% to 60% chance that some locations east of the Divide will have high temperatures above 60 degrees.

The West Coast ridge begins to shift east and flatten Saturday afternoon and shift the upper level jet east. This will weaken flow aloft over Wyoming and lessen the surface pressure gradient slightly. Wind can still be expected on Saturday, but will not be as strong or as widespread compared to today and Thursday. Clouds will also be increasing Saturday afternoon as more zonal flow begins to set in and usher some mid-level moisture into the region. The next shot at precipitation arrives on Sunday, as the ridge breaks down even more and opens Wyoming up to increasing Pacific moisture. A vorticity maximum will also be present over southern Wyoming, focusing precipitation to areas west of the Continental Divide.

Model guidance has continued to be in consensus that an upper level trough and associated closed low will shift into the Great Basin Monday. This keeps precipitation potential for areas west of the Divide into early next week. There is a decent amount of uncertainty with regards to the trajectory and magnitude of this low Tuesday onward, which will have ramifications on any associated precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 408 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the period as a dry northwest flow edges into Wyoming. The primary aviation concern will be wind, most notably at KCOD, KCPR, KRIW, and KRKS, which will all see westerly gusts of 30 to 40 mph into this evening. Wind will decrease for most terminals after 03Z, though KCOD, KCPR, and KRKS are expected to hold on to gusts of 20 to 30 knots for most of the night. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with only a high FEW cloud deck. Most terminals will again see wind increase after 18Z Friday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for WYZ002.