textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than average temperatures continue through the next week with mainly dry conditions.

- A weak weather system sweeps by to the northeast through Tuesday morning. A brief round of very light snow is possible for the northern Bighorn Mountains, with a light rain/snow mix for northern Johnson County. No impacts expected.

- A more widespread system looks to affect the area for early next week, details unknown with quite the uncertainty this far out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Upper level ridging continues to be in place across much of the western United States with the main finger of the PFJ pushing southeastward out of Canada into the Great Plains clipping northeastern Wyoming. A minor shortwave will continue to propagate down the aforementioned ridge with ever so slightly increasing divergence associated with it. As a result some minor accumulations of snow will be had for the northern Bighorns overnight into Tuesday morning. This will extend across northern Johnson County and Buffalo after sunrise Tuesday morning for a couple of hours before exiting to the east. With temperatures hovering around the freezing mark to just above in the morning, expect a rain/snow mix at these lower elevations. This quick shot will result in little to no accumulations to go along with no impacts to be had. This is depicted on IR with the colder cloud tops currently over central to eastern Montana starting to trickle into northern portions of Wyoming that will increase in coverage the remainder of the overnight hours into Tuesday morning.

Behind this shortwave and associated frontal boundary, expect temperatures for Tuesday afternoon highs to be a couple degrees less warm but still above average for this time of year. Winds will be heightened as well for the wind corridor up to Johnson County seeing 25 to 35 mph through early afternoon before diminishing the rest of the day and especially after sunset. Beyond that, ridging builds in stronger for the rest of the week and weekend with the high centered across California that will only build further with ever increasing convergence aloft. Temperatures back to 10 to 20 degrees above average with record highs to be flirted with. Dry conditions and no signs of stronger winds heading into early next week.

The next more widespread system looks to start to show its affects come Monday with longer term model solutions indicating that a trough will dig in across the Pacific Northwest. As a result, the ridge will begin to break and flatten down as it pushes east. Western mountain snow will look to be the for sure thing at this point in time with the more zonal flow bringing int the higher and mid level moisture. However, the EC that tends to be on the too fast side but still better this far out than the GFS, continues to have a more southward projection with how deep the trough digs down. This will bring a more southwest flow aloft by Tuesday that could bring snow for southern and southeastern portions of the CWA, and especially the Bighorns and Casper Mountain that are behind in snowpack thus far this winter. Colorado mountains should see some help with their's as well with this system as it tracks at this point in time. Regardless, cooler and more seasonable temperatures will be had with the coldest of the air still blocked well to the northeast into Canada even with the PFJ dipping as far south as southern California and through the Four Corner Region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 328 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A weak shortwave and cold front will move southward this morning, bringing gusty breezes and clouds. We continue to have no precipitation at TAF sites. However, given current radar trends we have added vicinity showers at KCOD and KJAC with showers possible in the adjacent mountains. Gusty breezes will occur at many TAF sites, with all wind decreasing to under 11 knots after sunset tonight. Lower VFR ceilings are possible in vicinity of KJAC, KCOD and KWRL with the frontal passage. There will be occasional mountain obscurations, mainly near the Absarokas, Bighorns and Tetons with the frontal passage.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.