textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures continue Tuesday afternoon with critical fire weather conditions east of the Divide.

- Not quite as warm and windy Wednesday and Thursday behind a cold front Tuesday night.

- Precipitation chances for western and northern mountains with and behind FROPA Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours (20-30% coverage) to include possible thunderstorms for northern and northeastern areas. - More scattered precipitation chances for similar areas Wednesday and Thursday with continued limited coverage with warmer temperatures and dry conditions into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Winds are starting to increase across portions of Wyoming this afternoon, and will remain gusty through the rest of the day. Most areas will be gusting to at least 30 mph, with the highest gusts from KRKS to KCPR. Satellite does show some CU bubbling up across southern WY, which is expected to expand across the state this afternoon. A few brief very light showers are possible, mainly across Sweetwater County and around the Bighorn Range where instability is greatest, but anything that does form would be hard-pressed to produce any meaningful precipitation. The front is still expected to cross through areas east of the Divide overnight tonight, bringing lighter winds for the day Wednesday. Areas west of the Divide will not see this wind shift, so gusty west winds will return quickly in the morning, with elevated to near-critical fire concerns continuing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Weak northwest flow aloft continues across the CWA as the main finger of the PFJ continues to sag south overnight into Tuesday. An upper level low across southern Canada will progress east remaining along the border where much of the PVA and precipitation activity will occur north of the CWA. Ahead of this first shortwave, the gradient will increase producing quite gusty winds east of the Divide especially seeing up to 40 to 50 mph likely by noon lasting through sunset before diminish into the overnight hours being FROPA. With FROPA, it will push in from the north to west of north around the sunset timeframe for northern parts of the state and progressing southeast overnight. With warming temperatures ahead of it, expect a decent instability range of 200-300 J/kg across the Bighorn Basin and points east that could see some very isolated areas of thunderstorm activity. Some scattered showers further west for the Absarokas to the Tetons as well Tuesday afternoon through the early evening hours ahead of FROPA.

The cold front will have pushed through the entire CWA shortly around sunrise Wednesday morning with any lingering shower activity going with it for the time being. Temperatures not as warm Wednesday afternoon but still 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year with winds not quite as strong seeing gusts up to 20 to 30 mph in the wind prone areas. Otherwise, another minor shortwave pushes through during the evening and into the overnight hours that will see some additional shower activity, mainly the northern areas with some minor snow accumulations for the northern Bighorns (<1-2 inches for the higher elevations).

By Thursday morning, expect some lingering shower activity to push across the northeastern parts of the CWA as the PFJ retreats into eastern Montana and the Dakotas. As it retreats northeast, upper level ridging builds in with a negative tilt that will bring a warming trend and dry conditions Friday and into the weekend. As this occurs, a low cuts off over California as a deepening low pushes into the Pacific northwest from the GOA. This will bring some an interesting weather pattern change if the EC holds up for later Sunday into early next week as it continues to embed these two features with a more favorable negative tilt and southwest flow for the CWA and much of the northern Rockies. Time will tell, There will be a few isolated thunderstorms across northern Wyoming Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.so stay tuned for updates in the coming days but don't hold your breath until then...

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals ahead of a nearing cold front. The main concerns this period will be gusty winds along with wind direction shifts as the front passes through the state. Winds are forecast to gradually increase at or shortly after the start of the period with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 knots. Winds remain breezy through the overnight with some weakening after the frontal passage. The front is expected to pass through the state shortly after 00Z Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal passage a few showers may develop across northern and western WY. Prob30 groups have been removed due to decreasing confidence in shower development. As a result, VCSH groups have been added to KJAC, KCOD, and KWRL to show a small chance (10-20%) for a nearby shower. A stray rumble of thunder and strike of lightning cannot be ruled out with the greatest chances only around 10%. Northern terminals will see the direction shift first between 00Z-06Z with most going from a westerly wind to a more northernly direction. The front continues to move south through the morning making its way into central WY between 06-12Z Wednesday. Some terminals such as KJAC and KPNA may not see all too much of a wind shift.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions by noon Tuesday and through the afternoon and early evening hours of sunset. Low relative humidity down to 13 to 16 percent and gusty west winds up to 40 to 50 mph likely for many areas east of the Divide. The most prone areas will be of Fremont to Natrona and Johnson County, where fuels are still susceptible. Further south, if Sweetwater County was not in green-up, it would be in red flag status as well. Other areas across the Bighorn Basin will be near critical, winds and humidity down to around 17 percent. Otherwise, some storm activity across this area could be of concern later Tuesday afternoon and early evening before sunset.

Wednesday will see similar humidity values behind a cold front. Winds will be more northwesterly in many areas with winds not as strong more constrained to the wind prone areas from Sweetwater to eastern Fremont and Natrona Counties.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280-281- 283-289.