textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and record breaking warmth prevails across the state, especially locations east of the Divide today.

- Unseasonable warmth persists into the weekend with highs likely to be 20 to 30 degrees above normal across much of the state.

- Confidence is slowly but surely growing for a change in the weather pattern by the start of next week. This shift would usher in cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation across high and low elevations.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Not much to update in terms of the short term with the main story being well above normal near record temperatures. As of writing this around noon, Buffalo and Cody are already nearing the mid 60s. Both of which have already broken their record high temperatures for the day by more than 5 degrees. Buffalo along with other portions of Johnson County may see high temperatures this afternoon flirt with 70 degrees. Other locations such as parts of the Bighorn Basin and Natrona County likely see highs in the low to mid 60s. The Wind River Basin will also be warm with high temperatures nearing 60 with Lander possibly seeing warmer temperatures. West of the Divide sees mild temperatures as well with western valleys in the low 40s and other areas seeing highs in the low 50s. These warm, well above normal temperatures persist across the Cowboy State through the weekend. This is largely due to a very potent large high pressure that has established itself over much of the western CONUS.

The previous discussion mentions this potent ridge eventually being suppressed by the end of the weekend into the start of next week. This remains on track with the newest models continuing to show this shift in the overall weather pattern occurring. There looks to be multiple chances for colder temperatures and precipitation throughout next week. However, impacts still remain up in the air with models unsure as to the track of these disturbances. The current trend is showing the possibility for accumulating snow to return to the higher elevations of western and central WY. Lower elevations look to have a chance to see light snow accumulations but at this time there still remains way too much uncertainty. A clearer picture of what to expect will likely come into focus over the next few days. Overall, chances do continue to increase regarding a potential shift in the weather pattern with some chances for snow to return to portions of the Cowboy State.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

This winter's dominant ridge across the west continues to keep temperatures well above normal, but confidence is increasing that the ridge may finally be breaking down, with a more active pattern setting up across the state.

For today, Still looking at temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with several record high temps in jeopardy. This is especially east of the divide, where highs will be in the 60s, with Buffalo currently at 50% probability of reaching 70.

Models continue to tear down the ridge over the weekend, opening up the region to westerly flow off the Pacific. This brings a tap of moisture into the western mountains, bringing better upslope moisture for increased snowfall. At that time, another weather system sweeps through somewhere in the vicinity, bringing increased snow chances for the Bighorn Mountains, and is noting a better chance for moisture at lower elevations. This will also bring temperatures back closer to normal for most of next week, while longer term ensembles note that these colder temperatures finally stay in place into the middle of the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 338 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Dry and VFR flight conditions are forecast this TAF period with high pressure dominating the region. Winds at KCPR remain elevated (above 10kts) through 05Z Friday before diminishing overnight. Winds at KCPR increase above 10kts early Friday afternoon. Light winds are expected at all other terminals. Skies remain clear overnight before high clouds gradually filter into the area Friday afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.