textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of hot, well above-normal temperatures. The Extreme Heat Warning will continue through 9 PM this evening.

- Western Wyoming will see a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With a dry surface layer, much of the rain from this activity may not reach the ground. Strong outflow wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will be possible with any shower or storm.

- Temperatures trend down slightly beginning Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming more widespread through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Another hot day is in store for the area as the strong ridge persists across the region. Temperatures will even tick up a few degrees east of the Divide as heights subtly rise again and cooler air is displaced farther north. Given the widespread highs from 95 to 105+ degrees, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through sunset today. Otherwise, elevated monsoonal moisture will increase again today leading to another afternoon of convection. This will similarly be most focused across the western mountains. With temperature/dewpoint depressions as large as 70 degrees, any virga or rain shower could produce strong outflow wind gusts. This is again expected to be fairly isolated. While an easterly breeze will pick up east of the Divide this afternoon, wind is still not expected to be widely strong enough for fire weather highlights. Regardless, all areas can expect at least elevated fire weather conditions again today.

The ridge is expected to shift farther east on Wednesday. This will allow for increasing monsoonal moisture advection and another uptick in convection, especially as a shortwave progress through the southwest flow over the area. Temperatures will decrease in response, though only marginally - high are still expected to be in the 90s to around 100 across the lower elevations.

Moisture advection will be further amplified on Thursday and Friday as PWAT values approach one inch, or around 150% of normal for this time of year. Accordingly, rain chances will increase across the area beginning Wednesday, with Thursday appearing most favorable for widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage at the moment.

Ensemble cluster guidance continues to favor anomalously high 500mb heights through the weekend. While this would not bring any big pattern changes, additional smaller disturbances and continued monsoonal moisture is likely to lead to more rain chances across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 451 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure persists across the area. This will lead to another day of hot temperatures at the surface. With increasing moisture, convection is expected to be a little more widespread this afternoon, though still mostly limited to the western half of Wyoming. PROB30 groups are in place for possible impacts at KBPI, KCOD, KJAC, and KPNA. The primary concern will be strong outflow wind gusts with this activity. Otherwise, wind will be fairly light, though there will be an increased easterly breeze this afternoon at several terminals east of the Divide.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ003>006-010-011-013-016>020-023-025>030.