textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Even with a recent cold front passage temperatures today will be warm and above normal. Skies remain mostly clear today and dry conditions look to persist.

- A very nice finish to the weekend on Sunday with even warmer temperatures, light wind and plenty of sunshine.

- Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions continue through much of next week. Elevated to possibly critical fire weather will be possible at times, with Monday looking like a day of greater concern.

UPDATE

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Little to add or update regarding the previous forecast discussion. After a weak cold front passage temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday but values will still be above normal. Well above normal temperatures with highs nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal are likely to prevail through much of the upcoming week. Some locations east of the Divide may see highs flirt with 80 throughout much of the week which is quite unprecedented for October. As mentioned in the previous discussion these warm temperatures and dry conditions may lead to prolonged periods of elevated fire weather conditions through the upcoming week. Long range forecast models are hinting at the warmth eventually breaking down by the end of next week into the weekend. However, being nearly a week out there remains high uncertainty. For now, well above normal temperatures and dry conditions look to persist across the region for the near future.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

For the past several months, my strings of shifts seemed like they have been one extreme or another, not much in between. In May, they were quiet. In June, fairly busy with predicting strong to severe thunderstorms. From July through most of September, it was the seemingly never ending monsoon with periods of showers and thunderstorms that the models handled rather poorly. And this was also sprinkled with record heat, including some all time record high temperatures.

Most of this string has returned to the quiet type, with only one night of somewhat active weather. And this will continue through the weekend. For today, a weak cold front will slide southward today, coming to rest around the Continental Divide. This will mean cooler temperatures East of the Divide, anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees in central Wyoming to as much as 15 degrees in Johnson County. Temperatures will still average above normal for this time of year though. There will be locally breezy conditions in the favored northwest flow areas, especially Johnson County and eastern Fremont / western Natrona Counties, where there is a greater than 3 out of 4 chance of gusts over 35 mph. The strongest gusts should be in Johnson County, where gusts over 40 mph are possible. No real fire weather concerns though, since humidity will be higher behind the cold front and wind should be light to moderate across southern Wyoming.

Sunday is shaping up to be one of those nearly perfect early autumn days with a cool start in the morning, a comfortably warm afternoon, lots of sunshine and a fairly light wind. So, if you are fortunate enough to have the day off, enjoy it. We don't get many like it in Wyoming.

We do have some concerns for Monday though. A trough will be moving out of the west coast and approach the northern and central Rockies Monday and Tuesday. The system has little moisture to work with and any moisture it has will likely remain south of Wyoming. It will tighten the pressure gradient across the area though, especially in the favored southwest flow locations, like from Muddy Gap through Casper. This should bring a gusty breeze, with the NBM ensemble showing a greater than 3 out of 4 chance of gusts over 30 mph from Rock Springs through Casper as well as the Lee of the Absarokas on Monday afternoon. Downsloping flow will also bring a very warm day, especially for early October. Most locations East of the Divide below 6000 feet have at least a 1 in 2 chance of highs over 80, with the warmer spots like Thermopolis, Worland and even Buffalo having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of highs of 85 degrees or greater. This will also bring low humidity, under 15 percent in some locations. We may need some fire weather watches for this day but it is a bit too early at this time. The most likely area of concern would be from Eastern Sweetwater County through Natrona County.

Tuesday looks warm but a little cooler. Wind also looks to be a little less and humidity a bit higher, making things borderline for any fire weather highlights. Much of next week looks the same, with a continuation of above normal temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions that could bring elevated fire weather each afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 435 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the entirety of the period for all TAF sites. Light winds towards sunset after 02Z with radiational cooling through the overnight and Sunday morning hours. Winds remain light, except for RKS that will increase to 18kt gusts after 20Z with daytime heating and a tightening gradient to the south. Otherwise, some passing high clouds Sunday afternoon with no other weather elements expected at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.