textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today, with highs around 70 degrees for a majority of the area.

- Isolated (15-40%) showers, and a possible thunderstorm, this afternoon, favored across western Wyoming. Most showers will be dry/virga, with only a very light rain for showers that reach the ground.

- Increasing precipitation chances through early next week, as well as cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today sees the transition from a ridge over the area to the incoming trough. With the ridge still over the state, temperatures warm once again, with highs generally around 70 degrees for most of the area. The tightening pressure gradient will bring a breezy afternoon, with gusts 15 to 25 mph. Stronger gusts to 35 mph occur across Sweetwater County and northern Johnson County. A subtle shortwave passes through ahead of the advancing trough today. Moisture will be limited, but the lift should be just enough to produce some virga or light rain showers, as well as a very slight (10-15%) chance for a thunderstorm. Given the overall dryness of the atmosphere, most of these showers should be virga. If a shower does produce rain, amounts would be about 0.02 inches or less. The Wind River Mountains may aid in some additional lift, increasing the chances for better moisture amounts there, mainly at the higher elevations. In terms of chances of a seeing a virga shower or light rain today, it's very difficult to pinpoint. It's going to be one of those days where its effectively random where a shower decides to pop-up. Overall, would give any location at least a 10 percent chance today. Western Wyoming will be more favored, as the better moisture is there, with chances more in the 10 to 40 percent range. One last note about any showers (virga or light rain) is outflow gusts, which could be up to 55 mph at the high end, though would more likely be more likely in the 20 to 40 mph range.

Saturday shares similarities to today. However, a more potent shortwave passes through ahead of the main system. This brings better precipitation chances to the area, in additional to better moisture availability. Snow levels will be around 9000 feet, so expect rain in the lower elevations. Everywhere has at least a 20 percent chance for rain, again favored higher chances over the west. Western locations could see up to 0.2 inches of rain if a shower moves right overhead. Overall, amounts should be under 0.1 inches (and mainly under 0.05 inches) unless a stronger showers moves directly over.

The advancing low is slow moving, so although each day this weekend sees increasing precipitation chances, the main system won't pass through until Monday/Tuesday. As it's so slow moving, it will drop most of its moisture to our west and southwest. So, moisture availability will be limited here through early next week. As a result, models have, rightfully so, lowered precipitation amounts each day compared to previous runs.

Taking a peek further ahead, late next week (maybe Thursday or Friday) could see another system from the north. This has the chance to bring below freezing nighttime temperatures. Though confidence is low on the details, heads-up to anyone with sprinkler systems or early season vulnerable vegetation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR flight conditions are forecast through 18Z Saturday. There exists a 15 to 30 percent chance of rain showers at most terminals this afternoon (beginning around 22Z) and evening (ending around 04Z). Showers will move from southwest to northeast, be scattered in nature, and mostly dry/virga, so it is uncertain if any given terminal will see any actual rain. PROB30 groups have been added where confidence is around 30 percent chance in direct impacts to a terminal. There also exists a 10 percent chance for isolated thunderstorms, especially across western Wyoming. Any showers/thunderstorms could produce gusty 25 to 45kt outflows.

Winds will increase early this afternoon at KJAC, KCOD, KCPR, KRKS, KBPI, and KRKS with gusts ranging from around 18kts to 25kts. Isolated light rain shower potential exists early Saturday morning around KRKS, KBPI, and KPNA.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.