textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty west to northwest wind 15 to 25 mph blows Tuesday afternoon across portions of northern, central, and southwest Wyoming.

- High pressure builds over the Rockies and Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday leading to dry conditions and daytime highs 10F to 15F above seasonal averages through Friday. Gusty southwest wind returns Friday to central Wyoming.

- The next weather system approaches Saturday into Saturday night providing a chance of showers across mainly western Wyoming. Rain and snow amounts look to be on the light side.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

A weak shortwave is traversing eastern Montana at midday leaving the forecast area in northwest flow aloft in its wake Tuesday afternoon. This leads to breezy afternoon west to northwest wind 15 to 25 mph in favored locations of the northern Bighorn Basin and Johnson County, the Wind River Basin, and from Rock Springs to Casper. Other than some mid/high clouds across northwest Wyoming, cloud cover will be minimal through tonight. A long wave trough digs off the US West Coast tonight and Wednesday amplifying a ridge across the Rockies and Great Basin. High clouds drift through the state Wednesday within the northwest flow aloft, but in general it will be mostly sunny. Rising mid-level temperatures Wednesday allow for daytime highs to climb to 10-15F above seasonal averages. This trend continues Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

The general rule of thumb this year is that it has been a very warm calendar year, and in some locations back to last autumn. And, this will be the rule over the next several days as well. If you want to see some statistics on this, we will have a post on our social media pages on how warm it has been a little later this morning. In the meantime, back to our regularly scheduled forecast discussion.

A weak shortwave is now working its way through Idaho, and will cross Wyoming today. The wave is rather moisture starved, with most of any moisture remaining north of the area across Montana. There could be just enough lift for a stray shower across northern Wyoming through around 2 pm, but the chance everywhere except the mountains is less than 1 out of 5. Most areas will just see some passing clouds. The main impact most areas will see is a gusty wind. The 700 millibar winds are not sufficient for high wind (only topping out at around 30 to 35 knots). However, there will be a gusty wind for many locations, Much of the area has at least a 1 out 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph. The greater than 1 out of 2 chance of wind gusts over 50 mph is largely restricted to the higher elevations though. The peak wind would be early in the afternoon, during the time of maximum mixing and an assist from an 100 knot jet streak passing across northern Wyoming at this time. Wind should decrease after sunset as the shortwave moves away and the atmosphere decouples. And, it will be another day of mild temperatures m with many locations East of the Divide seeing high temperatures in the 60s.

Weather concerns will be few to none Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge axis moves over Wyoming, bringing another period of above normal temperatures and light to moderate wind. Friday looks dry as well, although the next approaching system from the west will tighten the pressure gradient and bring breezier conditions to the favored southwest flow locations like Casper. With relative humidity falling to around 20 percent, we could see elevated fire weather in the afternoon in some locations.

The aforementioned weather system mentioned in the last paragraph, a Pacific trough and front, should approach the area on Saturday. The current forecast shows some showers moving in later Friday night. This looks a bit too fast though, most showers should hold off until Saturday and especially Saturday afternoon and evening. This system will likely be weakening as it approaches with the main forcing remaining south of Wyoming. As a result, precipitation amounts should remain light. The only areas with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of over a tenth of an inch of QPF are the western mountains and the chance of over a half of an inch is basically zero at this point. With the westerly movement of the system, downsloping flow should dominate East of the Divide with only isolated to widely scattered showers (less than 1 in 4 chance).

Other than a few lingering showers in western Wyoming, mainly dry conditions should return on Sunday and last into Monday. Temperatures will cool somewhat behind the front. However, with the Pacific origin of the air, temperatures should remain near to somewhat above normal. Guidance is showing something potentially more interesting for the middle of next week. This is still a long way out though, and as we all know, a lot can change over the course of a week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1028 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with breezy winds gusting up to 20-25 kt across the board through 00z Wednesday, with the exception being KLND seeing lighter winds. KCOD may hold onto isolated gusts up to 20 kt into tomorrow morning as winds largely subside across all terminals. Dry conditions then hold through tomorrow along with a few isolated high clouds above 20k ft under light winds, though KCPR may see an isolated 20 kt gust after 11/1600Z.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.