textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions return across the forecast area today. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be concentrated for areas west of the Divide due to the combination of wind gusts up to 25 mph and humidity values as low as 8%.

- Very isolated virga showers will also be possible across the area this afternoon and early evening. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph could occur from a passing shower.

- An approaching disturbance looks to bring widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The best chances for a wetting rain remain over the northern half of the forecast area.

- The first week of summer is looking warm with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A ridge will build over the region from the west today, as Pacific moisture begins to enter the region. Highs this afternoon will be in the 70s and 80s, with readings approaching the 90 degree mark over the western half of Sweetwater County. Winds will not be as strong today as the sfc pressure gradient loosens and the ridge axis shifts over the Cowboy State. West winds, with gusts up to 25 mph, will develop over areas west of the Divide by mid-afternoon and decrease in the evening. At the same time, another surge of easterly winds will occur over Natrona County into the Wind River Basin, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph occurring through 08Z. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also return across southern portions of the forecast area, due to the aforementioned winds and humidity values as low as 8%. Virga showers will be possible across the CWA through the afternoon into the early evening. Brief gusts of 50 to 60 mph could occur from these showers, due to the large dewpoint spreads that will be present. Another area of virga showers will develop over far western portions after 06Z Saturday, moving east of the Divide by the predawn hours Saturday morning. This will be a precursor to the more widespread convective activity expected during the day Saturday.

Chances for precipitation return for the weekend, as a remnant Pacific low moves over the region. Northern portions of the CWA continue to have the best chances to receive any precipitation, with forecasted rainfall amounts trending downwards again (no surprise). Amounts are now in the 0.20" to 0.40" range Saturday through Monday, with portions of Natrona County trending above 0.10". Locally heavy rain remains possible from these storms, as precipitable water values of 0.60" to 1" are still forecasted. Precipitation chances linger into Monday, as a Canadian cold front moves over areas east of the Divide. Dry conditions return to the region Tuesday, as a strong area of high pressure develops over the Desert Southwest. Models remain split whether shortwaves will move over the PACNW/Northern Rockies from Wednesday to Friday, keeping precipitation chances up and the ridge suppressed to the south. Given the latest CPC outlooks of a 33% chance for above normal precipitation, confidence is low to medium at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 429 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions will occur through the TAF period. West of the Divide terminals will increase to gusts up to 20kt between 19Z and 21Z, decreasing again around 01Z. Another surge of easterly winds gusting around 25kt will impact KCPR after 01Z and push toward KRIW. These winds will subside between 06Z and 08Z. Very isolated virga showers will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. A second surge of virga showers will move up from UT after 06Z, spreading west to east through 12Z. No impacts are expected and confidence is too low to include as a PROB30 group for KBPI/KPNA and KRKS.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.