textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm, dry, and breezy day is in store today, with most seeing highs in the 50s and 60s. Johnson County will likely see highs in the low 70s.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon across Johnson County due to abnormally warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and breezy winds.

- Apart from low shower chances (20%) across northwest Wyoming on Tuesday, there is high confidence in dry weather, occasional breezy afternoon winds, and above normal temperatures Monday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

The upper level ridge that was in place over Wyoming on Saturday has begun to fold over and flatten as of 1AM. Water vapor imagery is already showing more zonal flow across northwest Wyoming. By mid to late morning, zonal flow will prevail across the state with a surface high centered over Colorado. Although 700mb temperatures will be in the 4C to 8C degree range, deep mixing is not expected for most locations and these temperatures will likely not translate to the surface. Nonetheless, another warm and dry day is expected with highs in the 50s west of the Continental Divide and upper 50s and 60s for most locations east of the Continental Divide.

Zonal flow aloft is forecast to strengthen throughout the day over northern Wyoming. This is particularly favorable for gusty winds across Yellowstone National Park and the Absarokas, around Dubois, and for downsloping to occur off of the Bighorns into Johnson County. Temperatures across Johnson County will have no issue warming into the low 70s today with many locations seeing minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 15% to 20% range. Gusty winds are also forecast from South Pass to southeast Johnson County and eastern Natrona County ahead of a weak cold front this evening. Given the abnormally warm temperatures, low relative humidity values, and breezy winds across Johnson County, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon.

Zonal flow will remain present across the state on Monday with breezy conditions across many of the same locations as today due to fairly strong flow aloft. Most will see similar temperatures to today and more dry weather on Monday. Johnson County will be the exception due to forecasted 700mb temperatures being decently cooler (1C vs the 8C today) behind this evening's cold front. There is consensus amongst model guidance that a shortwave trough will traverse the area on Tuesday. There is forecast to be just enough moisture and orographic lift for light showers (20% chance) across northwest Wyoming. Most will remain dry with warm temperatures and breezy afternoon winds.

Confidence continues to increase that an upper level ridge will dominate the region Wednesday through Saturday. Current 700mb and 500mb temperatures accompanying this ridge are above the 90th percentile of climatology. This means that dry weather and abnormally warm temperatures will linger as we enter the middle of November. In fact, the current forecasted highs in the 50s and 60s are 10 to 20 degrees above normal. So if you are ready for the cooler November temperatures, you will have to wait just a bit longer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1005 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions through the period as high pressure remains over the area. A trough well to the north flattens the ridge some this evening and overnight, bringing some increased high clouds. This also brings increased westerly winds around KCOD, potentially keeping winds stronger through the night. KCPR also sees westerly winds linger into the night. Otherwise, winds follow typical diurnal trends.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 137 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected across Johnson County this afternoon due to abnormally warm temperatures, minimum relative humidity values in the 15% to 20% range, and breezy winds. The warmest temperatures and lowest relative humidity values are forecast to be across northern and central portions of the county. However, gusty winds of 25 mph or greater are expected to be confined to southeast Johnson County. The overlap of lowest relative humidity and gusty winds of at least 25 mph is not expected to be widespread. Thus, no headlines have been issued at this time.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.