textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast for low elevations through at least Thursday, with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with gusty 25 to 35 mph west winds. More widespread fire weather concerns are expected Tuesday.

- Multiple weather systems are forecast Tuesday through the weekend, with precipitation chances (25% to 50%) largely confined to the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Northwest flow aloft continues to weaken over the CWA heading into the new work week with the main finger of the PFJ well to the north and northeast into Canada and through the Dakotas. Upper level ridging remains to the west but weakening with decreased convergence aloft ahead of an upper level system currently off the Alaskan Panhandle coast. This will deepen with its eastward progression with increased divergence aloft north of Montana. The PFJ will sag south but only clip the northwestern portions of the CWA and state heading into Tuesday. Above average temperatures will continue despite it passing to the north but winds will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusts up to 35 to 45 mph likely for many wind prone areas (especially northern Johnson and the Bighorn Basin) but not expecting high winds at this time. Humidity values are not quite as low as previously forecasts, and as such, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns expected with no highlights to be issued of any sort. Some accumulations of snow expected for the northern Bighorns with some spotty showers across the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County but nothing of note is expected.

Beyond Tuesday, the main upper level low will push east across southern Canada leaving the PFJ near the northern WY/MT state line bringing a sering of minor shortwaves Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring some limited chances for precipitation across similar areas, but nothing of significance is expected at this time with no outliers of the deterministic models showing otherwise. Temperatures will not be as warm Wednesday through Friday but back on the rise for the weekend as upper level ridging builds in with a negative tilt due to a cut off low to the southwest over southern California. This could be interesting to see how it interacts with the next bigger chance for more significant weather will come early the following week as the EC depicts a GOA low deepen with its progression to the Pacific northwest nearing the western CWA by early Monday morning. Stay tuned for updates in the coming days as this system could bring a more favorable southwest flow aloft across the CWA for some possible much needed precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 502 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds increase a bit for the afternoon today, with sustained winds 8 to 14 knots for most locations. No precipitation expected over the next 24 hours. KCOD will see increasing clouds this afternoon, which could bring a very light shower, though chances are only 15 percent.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.