textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of widespread gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph. A cold front passage will bring cooler temperatures and some chances for light snowfall throughout the day mainly across northern WY.

- Widespread strong gusty winds in excess of 50 mph are likely to return to the area for Thursday with gusty winds persisting through Saturday.

- Aside from strong gusty winds, a prolonged period of snowfall is expected to set up across the northern mountains Thursday through Saturday.

- Another cold front passage looks to bring chances for widespread light snowfall by Saturday across all elevations.

- Confidence continues to grow in a period of possibly near record breaking heat developing over the state for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A slow cold front continues to trek its way across the Cowboy State today. As of writing this early Tuesday morning, the front has made its way into portions of Fremont County. This can be seen through temperatures dropping around 10 degrees and winds switching from the northwest to the northeast. The front is expected to slowly move south through the remainder of the morning. Temperatures for once look to be around normal to slightly below with highs forecast to be in the 30s to mid 40s. Precipitation is expected to start developing behind the front across parts of northern WY this morning. Temperatures should be cold enough to allow for some snow accumulation over parts of the northern WY. However, due to the prolonged period of warm temperatures and strong sun angle, snow may be mainly limited to grassy surfaces during the day. Showers will move south through the afternoon and evening bringing chances to portions of western and central WY. Showers dissipate by the late evening hours on Tuesday. Snow accumulation looks to be minimal across higher and lower elevations. For the higher elevations of the Absarokas, Tetons, Gros Ventre, northern Wind River, and Bighorn Ranges, 2 to 4 inches of snow looks the most likely (50-80%). However, portions of the Absarokas and Bighorns may see localized higher amounts nearing or exceeding 6 inches (20-50%). As for lower elevations, snow accumulation of more than a trace looks the most likely across northern WY, western valleys, and portions of Natrona County. The most favorable locations for accumulating snow looks to be across the western Bighorn Basin and Johnson County especially nearby Buffalo. Current probabilistic guidance gives these locations a 40-70% chance of seeing 2 or more inches of snow. A few isolated areas may see amounts nearing 3 inches. Other locations, likely see little to no snow accumulation or no precipitation at all. Aside from precipitation and colder temperatures, gusty winds will once again return to parts of the state this afternoon. The good news is winds should be weaker than the past few days with gusts likely only ranging from 30 to 45 mph. The favorable locations to see these winds gusts would be across central and southern WY. Northern WY may see some breezy winds with gusts only around 20 mph.

Wednesday sees a brief break in the action with mainly dry conditions, near seasonable temperatures and breezy to gusty winds. Winds once again look to be mostly widespread with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible. The strongest gusts look to setup across the Wind Corridor from Casper and Rock Springs along with higher elevation mountain passes such as Togwotee, Powder River and South Passes. These locations may see periodic gusts of 40 mph or more at times during the afternoon and evening Wednesday.

All focus will then shift to late Wednesday through late Saturday evening when a very potent jet sets up across the northern half of the CONUS. 500 mb winds look very robust with a strong jet streak of 120 to 150 kts stretching from southwestern Canada down into the northern High Plains. As a result, the pressure gradient will remain tight across the region with 700 mb winds of 50-80 kts settling over much of the state. The strongest winds currently look to be east of the Divide with widespread wind gusts in excess of 50 mph likely throughout much of the day Friday. Current probabilistic guidance gives nearly all lower elevation locations east of the Divide a solid 40-70% chance of seeing gusts in excess of 60 mph. Higher elevations will see very potent wind gusts, likely in excess of 80 mph at times. This likely creates dangerous conditions along mountain highways/routes such as Powder River/Granite Passes, South Pass, and Chief Joseph (Wyoming Highway 296). Localized gusts of 70 mph or more do not look totally impossible across the lower elevations. Overall, just the wind threat for Thursday will need continued monitoring over the next few days. There is increasing confidence in High Wind Watches being issued but not at this time. These strong gusty winds look to persist into Friday and Saturday. Winds are expected to decrease some overnight Thursday into Friday and then again Friday into Saturday. However there will likely be gusty winds through the overnight hours these days. Winds are expected to gradually increase each day during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Wind gusts on Friday and Saturday are currently looking strong as well but not to the same extent as Thursday. 700 mb winds do weaken some with speeds ranging from 40-70 kts over much of the state. This would translate to widespread wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph especially east of the Divide. That being said its very possible High Wind Highlights may need to be extended throughout these days as strong gusty winds likely persist over the same locations.

The other aspect of this upcoming weather event will be a prolonged period of precipitation across the higher elevations of northern and central WY. Predominately westerly/northwesterly flow will persist over the region Thursday through Saturday. This looks to funnel precipitation across northern mountain ranges such as the Absaroka, Bighorn, Teton, Gros Ventre, and northern Wind River Ranges. The most favorable mountain ranges looks to be the Absarokas and portions of YNP. Models currently show QPF amounts starting Thursday through Saturday morning ranging from 0.30 to over 1 in mainly over the Absarokas. There is one caveat to this though and that is very mild temperatures across much of the region. 700 mb temperatures are currently forecast to range from -2 to -5C which would keep snow levels at around 7500-8000 ft. That being said, snow ratios would still be rather low even above 8000 ft. Models are showing snow ratios around 10:1 in the best situations with ratios further decreasing after Thursday. So currently, snowfall amounts as a result of the prolonged period of favorable flow mostly range from 4 to 10 inches. The most favorable location, the Absarokas has the highest amounts ranging from 12 to 18 inches with the highest peaks possibly seeing more. It is important to keep in mind that these amounts are still very preliminary and will likely change over the next few days. Overall, the main take away is that any snow that falls Thursday through Saturday morning will likely be very wet and heavy. Now combine the very strong winds that are forecast across the higher elevations with moderate to heavy snowfall. There is the potential for very hazardous travel conditions to occur at times Thursday through Saturday across the higher elevations of northern WY.

A cold front will eventually make its way into the area by Saturday and this frontal passage should gradually cut off the strong winds. Behind the front there does look to be much colder air that will filter into the region. Along with the colder temperatures there will be chances for widespread precipitation across all elevations mainly east of the Divide. Models are not showing any major impacts with the current likely outcome being a few inches of snowfall Saturday night into Sunday morning.

There is one last thing of note, currently there are early indications for a very potent area of high pressure to build in over the western CONUS by the start of next week (March 16th). Now, especially with this past winter, a very potent area of high pressure is nothing out of the ordinary. However, there is increasing confidence and agreement among many long range models that this will not be your run of the mill period of warm temperature and dry conditions. It is looking increasingly possible that much of the western CONUS and Intermountain West will see a period of WELL above normal temperatures. The NBM, which usually tends to be on the more tame side when compared to other models, is showing record breaking temperatures. Highs are currently forecast to get into the low to mid 70s for the start of the week. By the second half of the week there is the potential to see all time March high temperature records being shattered by nearly 5 degrees. For comparison Lander's highest temperature recorded during the month of March is 76F. This is still quite a ways out but the concern is the wide consensus among long range models of this occurring and with each passing day confidence seems to only grow. So this will be one of the many things to monitor over the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions expected for the entirety of the period for all TAF sites once the low stratus around CPR pushes off to the east and burns off shortly after the start of the period. Otherwise, increasing winds for all locations after 16Z peaking after the 18-20Z period. Strongest gusts up to 40kts at RKS, and up to 35kts for BPI/CPR, with others 30kts or less during peak heating of the afternoon. Small timeframes for snow chances at JAC/COD with a passing shortwave to the north between after 15-17Z through 23-03Z. Impacts minor with the warmer temperature leading up to today, but all other locations will remain dry.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.