textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of very warm temperatures across western Wyoming, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Multiple records highs may be broken again today.

- Windy conditions return Friday and into the weekend, bringing elevated to near critical fire weather concerns.

- The next weather system still timed to arrive later this weekend, with likely rain showers and an increasing probability of snow for higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Consistent and strong ridging continues to dominate western and central Wyoming through the rest of the upcoming week. This will keep the very warm and dry conditions going, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Friday. Those leaves that are already changing colors are going to get confused for a while. There is a weak and dissipating midlevel trough moving out of the Great Basin into western Colorado, which may push a few virga showers into far southern WY this afternoon, but with surface dewpoint temps in the 20s, any precip that tries to fall will quickly evaporate well before reaching the ground.

Hints of a larger change start to show on Friday, as a larger trough starts to drop southward along the Pacific Coast. This will start to tighten up the sfc gradient in the region, bringing a more typical windy Wyoming day. This along with the still very dry conditions will lead to near critical fire weather concerns during the afternoon. This pattern continues into the day Saturday as well. Longer term models still can't quite agree on the timing of the arrival of the trough this weekend, but are becoming more consistent in bringing it through nonetheless. Confidence in increasing in a considerable weather change with this system, bringing much colder temperatures, ample rainfall at lower levels, and the first decent amount of snowfall for the main mountain ranges across NW WY.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

All terminals to be VFR through the forecast period within west- northwest flow aloft. A weak upper-level disturbance generating thunderstorms over northeast Nevada late Monday evening slowly spins to our south by late Tuesday. There appears to be enough instability for weak convection between 21Z/Tuesday and 01Z/Wednesday over far southwest Wyoming in vicinity of the disturbance. Surface winds will be diurnally-driven, with southwest terminals seeing 7-11kt west to northwest wind from mid-afternoon until around sunset Tuesday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.