textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming continues across the Cowboy State today with highs nearly 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

- Record breaking warmth, gusty winds, and dry conditions are expected to occur Wednesday. This will likely lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening.

- A frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures for Thursday with some fire weather concerns persisting over portions of southern WY.

- Dry and warm conditions return for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The potent area of high pressure that brought record-breaking temperatures to the state last week has been suppressed to the south over the past few days. As a result of this, daily high temperatures have remained only 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This looks to change, as the high begins to push back north out of the Desert Southwest starting today. This push north will gradually usher in warmer temperatures to the region. 700mb temperatures look to range between 3C and 7C across much of the state. Winds also begin to increase today as a disturbance starts to make its way into the PACNW. This will start to gradually tighten the pressure gradient creating breezy to gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph for central and southern parts of the state. Stronger gusts exceeding 40 mph will be more likely along the Wind Corridor from Casper to Rock Springs. Chances of seeing gusts in excess of 40 mph over this area range from 60 to 80%. The increasing winds should allow for warmer 700mb temperatures to mix down to the surface. Currently, highs today are forecast to range from the low to mid 60s west of the Divide and upper 60s to lower 70s east of the Divide. Min RH values will keep fire weather concerns marginal for the most part with elevated conditions possible for some lower elevation locations in central and southern WY.

The fire weather concern intensifies for Wednesday as temperatures climb to near record-breaking values and winds strengthen. 700mb temperatures increase as a result of the high to the south pushing farther north. This will create a gradient of 700mb temperatures over the state with the coolest values around 5C over northwestern WY. Temperatures warm the farther south and east you go, with central WY seeing values around 7C to 10C and the warmest values of 10C to 12C across portions of Sweetwater County. These values will likely translate to near or even record breaking temperatures for lower elevations in southern WY and east of the Divide. The current forecast has highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s east of the Divide. Southern WY sees values reach the mid to upper 70s, while western valleys look to get into the low 70s. Probabilistic guidance shows central and northern basins having a 60-90% of seeing highs reach or exceed 80F. Southern WY has a 50-80% chance of seeing highs exceed 75F. Daily high temperature records and even all-time March high temperature records may once again be in jeopardy. The newly set March high temperature record of 76F at Rock Springs Airport set on the 21st has the potential to once again be broken. Other locations across central and northern WY have a lower confidence in seeing new monthly records, but daily records will certainly be on the table. As mentioned earlier, winds will strengthen across the state Wednesday. This is the result of a nearing disturbance further tightening the pressure gradient. 700mb winds are not too concerning in regards to high wind hazards, but with values of 30 to 50 knots this will enhance fire weather concerns. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected to be widespread across lower elevations Wednesday. Periodic gusts of 50 mph or more will be possible across central basins and along the Cody Foothills with chances ranging from 40 to 70%. Min RH values are forecast to decrease further, ranging from 10 to 15% across nearly all lower elevations. The combination of record breaking temperatures, gusty winds, and low min RH values will create widespread critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this time, Fire Weather Watches remain in place with a likely upgrade to Red Flag Warnings coming within the next 24 hours.

A cold front begins to move across the state Thursday morning, bringing with it cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to the mountains of northern WY. As the front moves south Thursday, it looks to stall over central WY. This may lead to warmer and drier conditions lingering across southern WY during the day. So it is possible elevated to critical fire weather conditions may persist into Thursday for southern WY if the front does stall. Otherwise, Thursday will see cooler temperatures ranging from the 50s to mid 60s. The timing of the front will be key in determining just how warm some locations get. As for precipitation chances, portions of the northern Absarokas and Bighorns will have the best odds. Currently, precipitation is looking minimal with maybe an inch of snow possible in the highest elevations of these ranges. Little to no precipitation is expected at this time for lower elevations with the frontal passage. Winds will be gusty to breezy at times Thursday as a result of the frontal passage. Many locations look to see gusts of 25 to 35 mph with periodic gusts in excess of 40 mph possible at times.

The remainder of the week into the weekend will see high pressure attempt to re-establish itself across the region. This would likely lead to another period of warm and dry conditions. As for the next chances for widespread precipitation across lower elevations, there are some early indications of an unsettled pattern developing for the start of April. However, at this time confidence remains low with plenty of time for things to change.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 430 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

SCT-BKN FL150-200 clouds will stream over the forecast area through 00Z. Expect clearing skies from west to east after 00Z as a trough moves over the area. Wind gusts of 25 to 35kt will be widespread, impacting most terminals after 18Z. These winds will decrease after 01Z, becoming light (11kt or less) through 03Z. There is a 20-30% chance for strong winds to impact KRIW around this timeframe due to the aforementioned trough. Strong midlevel winds (10kft MSL) of 50-60kt could mix down to the sfc in the wake of the trough. Turbulent winds will also result over northwestern portions of the state, as well as off the east slopes of the Wind River and Bighorn Mountains through 12Z Wednesday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of central and southern WY today. Winds will be gusting 20 to 40 mph at times today with min RH values around 20 percent. Fire weather concerns worsen for Wednesday as a result of near record breaking warmth with widespread dry and gusty conditions. Winds strengthen Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 50 mph possible at times. Min RH values will drop to 10-15 percent across nearly all lower elevations. A cold front moves through Thursday morning improving conditions over central and northern WY. However, it may stall, possibly leading to persisting fire weather concerns for southern WY.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for WYZ275>277-279>283-289.