textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures today with light winds, followed by above normal temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above) on Monday. Above normal warmth continues through the work week.

- Starting Tuesday morning, there will be a 36-hour period of persistent snow across the western Wyoming mountains. Widespread 8 to 12 inch snowfall totals with the potential (40-60 percent) for 15 plus inch totals in the higher portions of the Tetons and southern Absaroka Mountains.

- A prolonged period of very windy conditions along and east of the Continental Divide Monday night through Friday. Widespread 35 to 45 mph wind gusts occur by Wednesday afternoon with central Wyoming seeing the greatest chance (50-70 percent) for strong wind gusts in excess of 55 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today will likely be the calmest day of the week. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer today, rebounding back to near normal levels. Conditions will remain dry, with high clouds this morning giving way to clear skies by the afternoon. Winds will be light for most locations. Exceptions will be the east slopes of the Absaroka, Wind River and Bighorn Mountains and the Wind Corridor east of the Divide (Muddy Gap/Jeffrey City to Casper). Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will occur in these areas. Similar conditions return for Monday, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees warmer across the area leading to highs in the 45F to 55F range. Gusty winds will impact the previously mentioned areas again, with higher gusts of 35 to 55 mph occurring through the afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be more widespread as well, from southern Lincoln County to southern Johnson County. These increased winds will be due to the pressure gradient tightening irt an approaching storm system that will begin to impact western portions later Monday night.

An atmospheric river (AR) will develop over the PACNW tonight into Monday, as a broad ridge develops over much of the Intermountain West Monday night into Tuesday. This pattern will lead to the core of the PFJ being over the PACNW and Canadian border. At the same time, Pacific moisture from this AR will begin to increase over the region, with the first rounds of snow developing over the western mountains late Monday night. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will rapidly increase between 06Z and 12Z Tuesday, with values of 0.35" to 0.4" becoming widespread across the Cowboy State. This is well above the 90th percentile and toward the climatological maximum. This, coupled with strong isentropic upslope, will lead to heavy snow. There remains a high probability (greater than 70 percent) of widespread snowfall of at least 8 inches over the northwestern mountains (including Yellowstone), while the Tetons and southern Absarokas have a 40-60 percent chance of totals over 15 inches. The chances for snow in the Jackson and Star Valleys are highly variable, as model solutions are waffling on snow levels (which are currently between 6000 and 7000ft). This is likely due to the Pacific nature of the airmass. However, there is up to a 50% chance for 2 inches or more in the Jackson Valley (with higher chances on the north end of the valley between Moose and Moran) and a 10 to 20% chance in Star Valley through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night.

Gusty winds will also continue over the mountains and increase late Monday night as well, as the gradient continues to tighten as a system begins to drop southward from Canada. 700mb winds will increase to 50 to 70kt between 09Z and 12Z Tuesday, with a strong downsloping signature off the east slopes of the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains occurring by 12Z. This could lead to high winds (wind gusts 60+ mph) at places like Cody, Dubois and Lander. Needless to say, gusty winds will be more widespread with gusts of 35 to 50 mph occurring from southern Lincoln County to Natrona County Tuesday afternoon. Locally higher gusts around 60 mph will occur over South Pass. Caution is advised for travelers here, as well as over Togwotee/Teton Pass, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph occurring with the snow.

The aforementioned Canadian system will rapidly drop southward across the forecast area through the day Wednesday. Strong to high winds will be widespread across the CWA as a result. The main reason will be due to a 130kt jet max associated with the PFJ that will be in place ahead of the system. This will translate to 700mb winds of 45 to 60kt, which will mix down to the surface. Most areas can expect wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph through the day on Wednesday. These winds will decrease for most areas after sunset Wednesday evening, but gusts of 25 to 40 mph will continue for wind prone locations. Moderate to heavy snow will also continue over the western mountains Wednesday, ending by the evening as well, as the main system exits to the south.

Strong gusty winds will continue across the area Thursday in the wake of the storm, as northwest winds persist. Another Canadian storm system could impact the area with cold temperatures and snow by Saturday. Most of the impacts will likely stay east of the Divide if current trends continue.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 410 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

There is high confidence that dry and VFR flight conditions persist this TAF period. At KCPR, there is a very low chance (10%) in fog development through 14Z, but confidence is too low to include in TAF. Otherwise, expect high clouds to clear out through the morning, with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Winds remain light at most terminals. KCPR is the exception terminal, where afternoon gusts around 20kts exist through 00Z Monday and again after 05Z Monday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.