textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light showers continue overnight into Thursday morning coming to an end by sunrise. Mainly across the Bighorn Basin with upslope snow across the western Bighorns.

- Seasonable temperatures, breezy, low humidity, and limited rain and thunderstorm chances (less than 10-20 percent) Thursday through Sunday.

- Warming trend into next week with mainly dry conditions expected with the next widespread weather system by week's end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

IR shows cooling cloud tops pushing out of Montana over northern portions of the CWA associated with the main upper level trough starting to exit the upper Rockies to the east. The main finger of the PFJ pushes cyclonically around the aforementioned disturbance diving south out of eastern Montana progressing more progressive eastward into the High and Great Plains. It is weakening with its eastward moving due to decreasing divergence aloft. Lingering shower activity on the backside of this system that has affected the area the past few days stretches over the northern Bighorn Basin to the Bighorns. Mainly in the form of rain for lower elevations but some light snow possible for the northern Bighorns through sunrise Thursday morning with minor accumulations for the higher terrain with no impact to the mountain passes heading east into the higher plains of the state.

Northwest flow sets in place Thursday stretching from an upper level ridge southwest of California building with increasing convergence aloft keeping a tight gradient in the upper levels. As such, daily afternoon/evening shower activity possible through Saturday with daytime heating. Progressive in movement, this shower activity will be limited in coverage and shortened in time frame with little impacts constrained mainly to higher elevations along and northeast of the Winds. Coverage and confidence remain low for these daily occurrences around 10-20%. With the aforementioned system pushing east, weaker surface convergence and gradient will be instilled across the CWA with only breezy winds expected. The gradient will be cut nearly in half around 3-4mb throughout the CWA giving way to mainly westerlies up to 20-30 mph east of the Divide and 10-20 mph to the west from late morning to early evening due to daytime heating and mixing to the surface. Improved skies Thursday onward, clear at night and some passing clouds in the afternoon and evening, but otherwise, a more calm weather pattern going forward.

The upper level flow weakens even more come Sunday and into much of next week with very minimal if any at all shower activity diurnally. Nothing of note looks to be on the horizon until later in the work week and following weekend as longer term model solutions are pretty consistent with another deep low/trough pushing in from the Pacific northwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 430 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions for all TAF sites for the entirety of the period. Light winds for most locations, with a light drainage wind for RIW. Otherwise, winds increase with daytime heating and mixing up to 18-25kts, strongest CPR/RIW/RKS. Winds diminish after 02Z toward sunset with radiational cooling, remaining dry throughout.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.