textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread near critical to critical fire weather conditions exist through roughly 8PM tonight due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of Natrona County until 8PM.

- Strong westerly winds today with widespread gusts of 35 to 55 mph between 11AM and 9PM. Higher elevations and wind prone locations could see gusts around 60 mph.

- Seasonable temperatures, breezy, low humidity, and limited rain and thunderstorm chances (less than 20 percent) Thursday through Saturday morning. Rain and thunderstorm chances (20 to 60 percent) Saturday afternoon through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

IR shows much clearing and improved skies across much of the southern half of the CWA with the cooler cloud tops to the north and east over Montana and into the High Plains. WV depicts the main finger of the PFJ becoming more disoriented across the northern Rockies as the main upper level trough shifting eastward and retreating north along the MT state line. As a result, the lingering rain showers are constrained for northern parts of the CWA coming off the Absarokas through the Bighorn Basin to the upslope of the Bighorns. These will continue to wain into the early Wednesday morning hours through around sunrise.

The associated deformation zone will continue to linger across the north for much of Wednesday before the L/W trough exits east into the upper Great Plains by midnight and into Thursday morning. Rain shower activity more limited Wednesday afternoon associated with another weaker cold frontal passage losing its luster before hitting the southern half of the CWA where the near surface is much drier. Gusty outflows the main concern on top of the already windy conditions east of the Divide. Winds have wained overnight but will again increase by mid Wednesday morning as the gradient remains in place and mixing occurs after a weak inversion erodes with daytime heating. Gusts up to 35 to 55mph likely, highest along the Wind Corridor once again through the afternoon hours diminishing towards sunset with radiational cooling under continued improved skies for Wednesday night. The last gasp of the backside of the upper level disturbance comes after midnight with some scattered rain showers pushing across the northern Bighorn Basin into Johnson County exiting by sunrise. Light snow for the higher elevations above ~12kft expected for the Absarokas to the Bighorns but minimal, if any, impacts expected down the passes.

Regardless, expect Wednesday to be the coolest afternoon of the week another 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday even becoming less than average for this particular June day. Beyond that, more seasonable Thursday with a warming trend into the weekend and next work week. Isolated higher elevation shower activity expected Thursday through the weekend with northwest to westerly flow continues across the upper Rockies but limited in coverage. Breezy winds expected but not near what has occurred Tuesday and Wednesday leading to a more limited to elevated fire weather concern Thursday onward. Beyond the weekend, upper level ridging builds in from the southwest keeping a similar pattern for much of next week. Longer term model solutions continue to ping the next bigger disturbance to occur by week's end into the following weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites for the entirety of the period. Mid level clouds throughout as winds increase after 15Z once again, peaking up to 40kts at CPR/RIW and 30-35kts at all other locations. Winds diminish after 05-07Z with radiational cooling through the end of the period. Best shower activity for JAC/WRL/COD between 20-02Z as the system pushes northeast. More activity after 06Z on the backside of the low but will remain northeast of COD/WRL as it still brings it lower but VFR ceilings. Improving sky conditions into the next TAF cycle Thursday with less wind and dry conditions to be had going forward.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions continue Wednesday from 9AM to 8PM. Red Flag Warning continues for Fire Zone 280 (only zone with critical fuels at this time). Strong winds expected out of the west gusting up to 40 to 55 mph in many areas east of the Divide, and up to 30 to 40 mph to the west. Humidity values will be as low as 10 to 15 percent, driest in the Wind Corridor from Sweetwater to Natrona Counties.

Low humidity values continue for Thursday and Friday into the weekend, but with less wind expected seeing only breezy conditions up to 15 to 25 mph.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280.