textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures Sunday with light winds, followed by above normal temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above) on Monday. Above normal warmth continues through the work week.

- Starting Tuesday morning, there will be a 36-hour period of persistent snow across the western Wyoming mountains. Widespread 8 to 12 inch snowfall totals with the potential (40-60 percent) for 15 plus inch totals in the higher portions of the Teton Range and southern Absaroka Mountains.

- A prolonged period of very windy conditions along and east of the Continental Divide Monday night through Friday. Widespread 35 to 45 mph wind gusts occur by Wednesday afternoon with central Wyoming seeing the greatest chance (50-70 percent) for strong wind gusts in excess of 55 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 120 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Lower cloud cover and flurries have persisted over the higher peaks and west slope of the northwest and northern mountains Saturday morning, but the clouds and flurries fade by evening. This leaves only passing mid/high cloud cover across the region Saturday night and early Sunday. Abundant sunshine is found Sunday and colder air retreats northeast during the day. This leads to Sunday highs at or a tad above normal. The warming trend continues Monday as 700mb temperatures rebound to around 0C, leading to highs 45 to 55 for most lower elevations.

There is increasing confidence in widespread accumulating snow Tuesday through at least Tuesday night across the mountains of northwest Wyoming. The leading edge of an atmospheric river with IVT values 300-400 kg/ms reaches the far west Tuesday morning and persists into Tuesday night. Strong isentropic upglide occurs during this period. There is a high probability (greater than 70 percent) of widespread northwest mountain snowfall of at least 8 inches, while the Tetons and southern Absarokas have a 40-60 percent chance of totals topping 15 inches. Winter weather highlights for this period are likely if these trends hold. Additional Tuesday through Wednesday concerns remain regarding far west valley rain/snow and potentially strong wind east of the Continental Divide. The previous discussion provides a detailed account of these forecast challenges.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Things are largely quiet across western and central Wyoming this morning. We still have a few orographic snow showers across the western mountains and possibly a stray shower across northern Big Horn and Johnson Counties, but nothing else. And most of these should end by sunrise. Otherwise, ridging should bring dry and quiet weather through Monday. The main concern will be temperatures. We did lower them a bit, but it will be warmer than yesterday. The tread over the next few days will be for warming temperatures and flow turning southwest. On the balance, by Sunday temperatures should return to near normal and above normal Monday as the snow from earlier this week melts off.

Wind will be increasing Sunday and especially Monday as the next weather system approaches from the west. This will begin in the favored southwest flow locations like Casper Sunday but especially on Monday. As for precipitation, the absolute earliest any showers would develop is later Monday night but more than likely precipitation would hold off until after sunrise Tuesday.

And this brings us to the discussion of the next significant weather maker, the next Pacific trough and front approaching from the west. For the most part, this system looks similar to most of the systems this winter with zonal flow. That means upslope west of the Divide with the potential for a good amount of snow in the western mountains. The NBM ensemble guidance gives a greater than 9 in 10 chance of over 6 inches for the western mountains with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of over a foot in the higher elevations. As for lower elevations, there is more uncertainty. This looks like a fairly warm system, with 700 millibar temperatures rising to as high as minus 3C in southern Wyoming and minus 5C even in northwestern Wyoming, putting snow levels between 6000 and 7000 feet. A place like the Star Valley or even Jackson could see some mixing with or changing to rain at times Tuesday or Tuesday night before cooler air moves in for Wednesday. Ensemble guidance gives less than a 1 in 4 chance of 4 inches or more through Thursday morning as a result.

As for east of the Divide, the main story once again looks to be wind. Wind will begin to increase on Tuesday, and bring another very mild day with some locations seeing high temperatures close to 60F. High wind will begin to become possible in some areas like the Absarokas and Cody Foothills. The main event for the wind looks to be Wednesday at this time. As of now, there looks to be a good set up for high wind. The front and trough will provide some mixing. A potent jet, possibly over 130 knots, will be dropping southward across Wyoming. The most recent model runs show 700 millibar winds increasing to 60 to 65 knots. Numerous locations east of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 55 mph. So, chances are decent at this time for some wind highlights. As for precipitation, amounts would be small. The chance of a tenth of an inch of QPF remains small, generally less than a 1 out of 6 chance except in the mountains. The best chance would be in the north on Wednesday, when there could be some additional lift from the left front quadrant of the jet. In the lower elevations, it may end up being rain as temperatures will remain mild, at least at the onset.

Most guidance shows the precipitation ending Wednesday night as the system moves away to the south and east, with dry and mild weather returning for Thursday. Another system may approach for next weekend, but guidance is split this far out so confidence remains low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 935 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Benign aviation weather over the next 24 hours, with very light winds, mostly clear skies (besides scattered high cirrus), and VFR conditions. Given a dry lower atmosphere, morning fog looks unlikely. Even typically windy locations like KCPR, KCOD, and KRKS are forecast to have gusts remain under the 15 to 20 kt range Sunday afternoon.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.