textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions today through Monday thanks to above normal temperatures, gusty wind, and very dry conditions.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect and Fire Weather Watches have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Notable change is putting the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County in a Red Flag Warning for Sunday as well.

- A weather system moves in on Monday, with a strong cold front pushing through Monday evening into Monday night. Most precipitation will be confined to higher elevations in the form of snow. Some lower elevation locations may see up to a tenth of an inch of rain.

- It will remain cooler, with chances for precipitation Tuesday and beyond thanks to a weather pattern change.

UPDATE

Issued at 153 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Warm, breezy, and dry today into tonight. Mountain induced high clouds have been keeping locations east of the Continental Divide a little cooler than expected today, but these clouds are finally dissipating. This is leading to plentiful sunshine, which is allowing temperatures to climb quickly this afternoon. Temperatures should warm enough for mix out to occur, which will result in Red Flag Conditions across much of the area. Kept the existing Red Flag Warnings the same for today through Monday and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County. The timing for the Red Flag Warnings in the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County was pushed up by a day as winds look like they will be a bit stronger Sunday afternoon. Humidity recovery will struggle tonight as temperatures remain relatively warm, so fire weather conditions will not improve much overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A broad flat ridge is beginning to build over the region this morning, indicative of the high clouds over the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in a persistent westerly flow aloft, which will also lead to a leeside trough over eastern portions of the state. This will tighten the sfc pressure gradient and cause westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph over much of the CWA today and Sunday. Most of Johnson County and eastern portions of the Bighorn Basin will not be affected by these winds. However, model trends have increased the winds in these areas with gusts up to 30 mph on Sunday. Will hold off on changing the timing of the Fire Weather Watches in these areas for now and let the day shift take another look. Additionally, RH values will be critically low for most lower elevation zones Saturday and Sunday. Above normal to record temperatures will also return across the area. Conditions will be dry today, with a 30% chance for virga showers over southern portions of Sweetwater County from Flaming Gorge to Wamsutter as a weak shortwave over western UT moves over the UT/WY/CO border.

These dry conditions return for Monday as well, with winds increasing and becoming more widespread across the CWA as a trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. Chances for precipitation will increase over northwestern portions through the day Monday, with snow levels between 7000ft and 8000ft. Winds will be much stronger across the area as well, with areas east of the Divide having a 70-90% chance of gusts over 50 mph; there is a 40- 60% chance of gusts over 60 mph, with Cody having a locally high chance of 90%. If gusts of 60 mph were to occur, they would likely occur late in the afternoon between 22Z (4PM) and 00Z (6PM) with peak heating and the proximity of the front being the major contributors.

Chances for precipitation Monday night will initially be mainly confined to western and northern portions, spreading across areas east of the Divide through the overnight hours. The timing of the front has sped up and is now progged to pass through Buffalo and Kemmerer by 03Z Tuesday. The associated airmass is rather cold, with 700mb temperatures ranging from minus 6C to minus 11C across the northern half of the CWA by 12Z Tuesday. Snowfall accumulations in the lower elevations are not expected to be noteworthy at this time, with accumulations staying less than 0.5". This will be due to the unseasonably warm conditions for the next 3 days ahead of the front. However, any slippery conditions will melt away after 18Z Tuesday as temperatures warm and clouds clear in the wake of the system. Otherwise, snowfall amounts in the northern and western mountains of 2 to 4 inches are still expected.

There is a chance for precipitation over the southern half of the CWA Wednesday, as another weak embedded shortwave moves over the Great Basin. Models are starting to come into better agreement with the next storm system from Thursday into next Saturday. Precipitation chances over western portions begin to increase by Thursday morning with a difluent flow pattern as the storm begins to dig over the Great Basin through Thursday night. Confidence continues to favor the ECMWF solution, which is the slower solution and keeps southwest flow aloft over the Cowboy State Friday as a result of bottoming the trough over the Great Basin. This would also spread precipitation chances across the rest of the CWA. Will continue to keep an eye on this system as run-to-run consistency remains in favor for a cooler and wetter pattern Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions throughout the entirety of the period at all TAF sites. High clouds continue to spill over the broadened upper level ridge across the CWA. Winds will increase after the start of the period this afternoon, with highest gusts up to 30kts at CPR/RKS, and all other 20-25kts. Winds will diminish towards sunset after 02-03Z with radiational cooling overnight expected to increase once again into the next TAF cycle.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions return today and last through Monday. West winds with gusts of 30 to 35 mph will occur for much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday, with chances increasing for gusts over 25 mph to occur in zones 275, 281 and 282 starting Sunday. Will hold off from changing the current timing of the Fire Weather Watches in these zones for now. RH recovery will be fair to poor tonight and Sunday night. Precipitation chances will be confined to far northwestern portions of the state during the day Monday, with snow levels around 7000ft to 8000ft. The front will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning with snowfall amounts less than 0.5 inches possible over lower elevations areas east of the Divide.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ276>280-283-285- 287-289-300.

Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ275-281-282.