textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Overall warm and dry for the remainder of the week.

- There is potential for a widespread weather system for the first half of next week, but confidence and details are low this far out.

UPDATE

Issued at 1153 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

No major updates in the short term with this update. A Rex Block pattern over the west coast keeps overall dry and mild conditions through the remainder of this week. EFI has widespread 70th to nearly 100th percentiles for high temperatures each day, indicative of the well-above normal temperatures expected. Parts of Johnson County could see mid-60s Thursday, when normal highs are in the mid- 30s. Looking ahead into next week, there is still potential for a more impactful system, though confidence is very low this far out. Cluster analysis has a wide range of possibilities, with a fairly even split between models and solutions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Upper level ridging continues to be in place across much of the western United States with the main finger of the PFJ pushing southeastward out of Canada into the Great Plains clipping northeastern Wyoming. A minor shortwave will continue to propagate down the aforementioned ridge with ever so slightly increasing divergence associated with it. As a result some minor accumulations of snow will be had for the northern Bighorns overnight into Tuesday morning. This will extend across northern Johnson County and Buffalo after sunrise Tuesday morning for a couple of hours before exiting to the east. With temperatures hovering around the freezing mark to just above in the morning, expect a rain/snow mix at these lower elevations. This quick shot will result in little to no accumulations to go along with no impacts to be had. This is depicted on IR with the colder cloud tops currently over central to eastern Montana starting to trickle into northern portions of Wyoming that will increase in coverage the remainder of the overnight hours into Tuesday morning.

Behind this shortwave and associated frontal boundary, expect temperatures for Tuesday afternoon highs to be a couple degrees cooler but still above average for this time of year. Winds will be heightened as well for the wind corridor up to Johnson County seeing 25 to 35 mph through early afternoon before diminishing the rest of the day and especially after sunset. Beyond that, ridging builds in stronger for the rest of the week and weekend with the high centered across California that will only build further with ever increasing convergence aloft. Temperatures back to 10 to 20 degrees above average with record highs to be flirted with. Dry conditions and no signs of stronger winds heading into early next week.

The next more widespread system looks to start to show its effects come Monday with longer term model solutions indicating that a trough will dig in across the Pacific Northwest. As a result, the ridge will begin to break and flatten down as it pushes east. Western mountain snow will look to be the for sure thing at this point in time with the more zonal flow bringing in the high and mid level moisture. However, the EC that tends to be on the too fast side but still better this far out than the GFS, continues to have a more southward projection with how deep the trough digs down. This will bring a more southwest flow aloft by Tuesday that could bring snow for southern and southeastern portions of the CWA, and especially the Bighorns and Casper Mountain that are behind in snowpack thus far this winter. Colorado mountains should see some help with their's as well with this system as it tracks at this point in time. Regardless, cooler and more seasonable temperatures will be had with the coldest of the air still blocked well to the northeast into Canada even with the PFJ dipping as far south as southern California and through the Four Corner Region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 944 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the TAF period. A weak front continues to move through the state today. The frontal passage will bring some increase winds along with cloud cover. Isolated showers are moving across northern portions of the state which may bring nearby showers to terminals such as KCOD and KWRL. However, chances look low at this time so no VCSH or precipitation groups have been added. Nearly all terminals will see an increase in winds shortly after the start of the period. Winds look to range around 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. These winds decrease shortly after sunset with winds generally becoming light through the overnight. Clouds will also gradually decrease overnight with most terminals seeing some high fair weather cirrus or SKC for Wednesday. Mountains may see some brief periods of obscuration around the start of the TAF period, mainly near the Absarokas, Bighorns, and Tetons.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.