textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and dreary conditions will continue along the I-25 corridor from Casper to Buffalo through tonight.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions return this weekend as temperatures warm back up to well above normal.

- A weather pattern change is finally expected to occur by the middle of next week, with chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures favored.

UPDATE

Issued at 119 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Temperatures are much cooler today thanks to the cold frontal passage last night into this morning. Low clouds along the I-25 corridor from Casper to Buffalo are also thanks to the cold front. These low clouds have about an 80% chance of hanging around through the rest of this afternoon and then continuing through tonight. Temperatures are only in the 30s in this area and will not improve much this afternoon as long as the low clouds persist. Mist and light snow will continue at times through this afternoon in and around Buffalo. There will be no snowfall accumulation. This precipitation will end this evening as the limited moisture exits the area.

For the Red Flag Warnings conditions have not quite reached the critical threshold so far this afternoon, with humidity values in the upper teens. Humidity values should continue to drop this afternoon, so the Red Flag Warnings will remain in place until 9 PM MDT for now. They may need to be cancelled early if humidity values do not drop as low as expected this afternoon. Regardless, it remains very dry and windy across southwestern WY today. Fire weather concerns return for this weekend after a brief reprieve on Friday. Continuing to keep an eye on the potential pattern shift next week, but confidence still remains low in a widespread wetting precipitation event.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Scattered showers, mainly in the form of virga, are making their way across portions of southern and central WY this morning. Depending on how much the atmosphere can saturate, there may be a few drops making their way to the surface early this morning. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as well. These showers should mostly dissipate by around sunrise.

The record breaking heat will subside today with temperatures cooling back down nearly 15 to 25 degrees compared to yesterday. This is the result of a cold front that will make its way across the state today. Forecasted temperatures will differ greatly due to the cold front slowing down over central portions of WY. There will be a gradient of temperatures with the coldest values remaining over northern WY as highs only get into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Johnson County looks to be particularly chilly, with forecasted highs only around 40. Natrona County could be another chilly spot with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. The cold front looks to slow before making its way into Fremont County. As a result, temperatures should be able to get into the upper 50s and maybe lower 60s depending on the timing. The warmer temperatures look to be across southern WY, where the front wont reach until late Thursday. This will allow for temperatures to get into the low to mid 60s with western valleys being cooler in the low to mid 50s. Winds will once again increase with widespread gusts of 20 to 35 mph with stronger gusts nearing 40 mph likely over southern WY. The frontal passage should limit fire weather concerns over much of the state today. The only exception to this will be southern WY as the late passing of the front should allow for RH values to drop down to near or below 15%. Due to this, Red Flag Warnings remain in effect across much of southern WY through Thursday evening.

The other aspect of the cold front passage will be chances for showers over portions of the lower and higher elevations of northern WY. The timing for this precipitation will coincide with the frontal passage. At this time, showers should begin developing shortly after sunrise with chances increasing through the morning and shifting east by the early afternoon. The lower elevations with the best chances of seeing scattered showers today will be along the Cody Foothills, eastern Bighorn Basin and parts of Johnson/Natrona Counties. Northern Johnson County is an area of interest as hi-res models have shown the best chances (30-60%) for showers occurring here. Temperatures are forecast to remain too warm for any snowfall in lower elevations, but a brief transition to wet snow or a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out. Snow chances will be better across the higher elevations of the northern Absarokas and Bighorn Ranges. The Bighorns will have the best chances to see a light accumulation of snow, with amounts ranging from an inch to two. Precipitation should gradually dissipate by the evening hours with a few lingering showers possible over Johnson and Natrona County by sunset.

The start of next week is looking more and more interesting with each passing day. Models are coming into good agreement that an unsettled and wetter pattern may be on its way. However, there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the most favorable locations will be. So overall, next week looks to bring a much welcomed change from the heat and dry conditions we have seen over the past week and a half. That being said, there are no guarantees at this moment that we will see widespread precipitation chances but chances are slowing increasing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 515 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Winds decrease this evening and into the early night, with all sites about 10 knots or less overnight. No precipitation is expected, with passing high clouds through the period. Low-end VFR to MVFR cloud ceilings continue at KCPR overnight. These clouds could begin to dissipate overnight as the northerly wind influence decreases, but may still linger into Friday morning.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The summer-like temperatures persisted across the Cowboy State on Wednesday, leading to numerous high temperature records being broken. High temperatures ended up climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s east of the Divide and low to upper 70s west of the Divide. A location of note was Rock Springs, which hit 78F breaking the previous all-time high temperature record for March of 76F. This previous record occurred only a few days ago back on March 21st. An example of how anomalously warm that value is, the high temperature record for April at Rock Springs is 79F meaning we fell only 1 degree short of tying the record for April while still in March. Lander is another location of note, with records going back to 1891. The mercury reached 81F making it the third 80 degree day so far this month. Lander, before this year has never recorded an 80 degree day in the month of March. It would now tie the current record for most 80 degree days in the month of April. In total all 9 of our climate sites broke daily high temperature records Wednesday by multiple degrees. These records will only be adding to the long list of records that have already been broken this month. Overall, this recent stretch of record breaking heat is very anomalous for March and will likely be remembered for years to come.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.