textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of hot, well above-normal temperatures. The Extreme Heat Warning will continue through 9 PM this evening.

- Western Wyoming will see a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With a dry surface layer, much of the rain from this activity may not reach the ground. Strong outflow wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will be possible with any shower or storm.

- Temperatures trend down slightly beginning Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming more widespread through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No changes with the overall key messages with this update. As what typically occurs, models are not great at projecting the weakly forced convection during the afternoon, as seen the past few days over western Wyoming. Have therefore bumped up coverage for shower and thunderstorm chances a bit. Most activity looks to occur over the northwest mountains. Enough moisture is starting to make it into the area that isolated convection could produce rain that reaches the ground. Outflow gusts will be the greatest concern, especially around Yellowstone and the Absarokas. Gusts up to 45 mph are the likely outcome, though some gusts up to 60 mph are possible for stronger storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Another hot day is in store for the area as the strong ridge persists across the region. Temperatures will even tick up a few degrees east of the Divide as heights subtly rise again and cooler air is displaced farther north. Given the widespread highs from 95 to 105+ degrees, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through sunset today. Otherwise, elevated monsoonal moisture will increase again today leading to another afternoon of convection. This will similarly be most focused across the western mountains. With temperature/dewpoint depressions as large as 70 degrees, any virga or rain shower could produce strong outflow wind gusts. This is again expected to be fairly isolated. While an easterly breeze will pick up east of the Divide this afternoon, wind is still not expected to be widely strong enough for fire weather highlights. Regardless, all areas can expect at least elevated fire weather conditions again today.

The ridge is expected to shift farther east on Wednesday. This will allow for increasing monsoonal moisture advection and another uptick in convection, especially as a shortwave progress through the southwest flow over the area. Temperatures will decrease in response, though only marginally - high are still expected to be in the 90s to around 100 across the lower elevations.

Moisture advection will be further amplified on Thursday and Friday as PWAT values approach one inch, or around 150% of normal for this time of year. Accordingly, rain chances will increase across the area beginning Wednesday, with Thursday appearing most favorable for widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage at the moment.

Ensemble cluster guidance continues to favor anomalously high 500mb heights through the weekend. While this would not bring any big pattern changes, additional smaller disturbances and continued monsoonal moisture is likely to lead to more rain chances across the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 356 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Virga, showers, and thunderstorms are forecast across western Wyoming through 04Z Wednesday, with a 30 percent chance of impacting KJAC, KCOD, KPNA, and KBPI. Virga, showers, or thunderstorms could produce gusty 30 to 45 kt outflows, with an outflow up to 50 kts possible. There is a 10 percent chance that this convection reaches far enough east to KRKS, KWRL, and KLND through 04Z. However, confidence remains far too low to include in TAF. A stronger shower or thunderstorm could briefly reduce flight conditions, but this would be very short-lived. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again after 22Z Wednesday across northern and western Wyoming. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of a direct impact at KCOD, KBPI, KPNA, and KJAC from 22Z to 00Z Thursday. Chances increase at all other terminals after 00Z Thursday.

There is a 15 to 20 percent chance of lower clouds moving into KCOD around 12Z on Wednesday. Confidence in this occurring is rather low so opted to show the potential with a FEW020 group. Winds range from 8 kts to 15 kts, with gusts of 18 kts to 25 kts possible at KCOD, KCPR, KRIW, and KWRL before diminishing by 09Z. Winds are forecast to be around 10kts on Wednesday afternoon at all terminals. KJAC and KCPR are forecast to have occasional gusts up to 20 kts after 19Z Wednesday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ003>006-010-011-013-016>020-023-025>030.