textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Any showers will end by 8pm this evening. Conditions will remain dry tonight with clearing skies through the night. Dry conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures remaining 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

- A system will bring precipitation chances to western portions of the state by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures could support snowfall across the western valleys with accumulating snowfall across the higher elevations.

- Much cooler temperatures build into the region for the second half of the week with values returning to seasonable or even slightly below average with better precipitation chances east of the Divide by Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Fog and low stratus has dissipated across eastern portions of Natrona County, giving way to ample sunshine east of the Divide and similar temperatures as yesterday. West of the Divide continues to see much cloud cover, but more limited on precipitation chances. PoPs have been scaled back to adjust to current conditions as most of the shower activity is limited to eastern Idaho. A few isolated showers should still push into western parts of the state but more limited with lower confidence as it was before.

Otherwise, expect improving skies overnight into Sunday with a return to similar temperatures and mostly sunny skies as well into Monday ahead of the first wave of precipitation. At this time, expectations are for western parts of the state to begin to see the affect late Tuesday and into Wednesday, with the second main wave for Thursday and Friday that will push east of the Divide. Confidence still wanes at this time as with other systems, they seem to dig further south than anticipated, and thus, become more limited in QPF and precipitation chances themselves. With the southwest flow aloft, still expect some of the precipitation to have a better chance wrapping around the Divide to the east. Stay tuned for updated forecasts and hazard issuances in the coming days if necessary.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Above normal temperatures and mostly quiet weather will prevail across much of the Cowboy State this weekend. For Saturday, a nearing trough will try to bring some precipitation chances to portions of southern and western WY. However, due to it being so unorganized and the bulk of the energy tracking farther south, much of the state will remain dry. A few rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out this morning into the early afternoon hours today. The best chances (30-60%) will be across far southwestern and western WY with lesser chances elsewhere. The higher elevations of western WY may see a very light coating of snow, but overall accumulations will be little to nonexistent. Locations east of the Divide will remain dry with breaks in the cloud cover by the afternoon likely allowing for sunshine to break through. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s east of the Divide and mid to upper 40s west of the Divide. Sunday is looking quite nice with clouds decreasing, allowing for plenty of sunshine throughout the day. Temperatures are expected to remain around the same values as Saturday. Winds do look to increase across the Wind Corridor by the afternoon from Rock Springs to Casper. Speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be likely during the afternoon.

The start of the work week will see pleasant, dry, and mild conditions continue across the region. Temperatures will be similar to Sunday with breezy winds once again expected in the afternoon from Casper to Rock Springs. Another disturbance looks to be on the horizon for late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This disturbance is in association with a trough that digs across the western CONUS starting late Monday. However, energy with this trough is likely to struggle to organize as it tracks east throughout the day Tuesday. Models do not really show any well defined closed low developing which will limit impacts. Precipitation chances overall do look much better than this most recent system, especially for the higher elevation mountains and western WY. Along with better precipitation chances, this disturbance will bring cooler and seasonable temperatures to the area.

The current forecast is for showers to move into western WY late Tuesday behind a cold front that will gradually sweep west to east over the region. Temperatures may be a little too warm for snow to initially fall for the western valleys, but they should cool quite quickly allowing for a transition over to snow. Snow showers will be possible through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday across portions of western and southern WY. Some precipitation may make it across the Divide, but dynamics may not be the most favorable. So at this time the best chances for precipitation will remain over western and southern WY along with the higher elevation mountains of western, central, and northern WY. Winds are another aspect to monitor as initially models showed a potent area of 700mb winds move over central WY. However, the recent trends have lowered these winds. With that being said, some gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph still look possible Tuesday afternoon along the Wind Corridor from Rock Springs to Casper. As for snow accumulations, probabilistic guidance is showing western valleys having a 30-60% chance of at least 1 inch of snow. The higher elevations of the Teton, Gros Ventre, Wyoming/Salt River, and western Wind River Ranges have a 50-70% of 3 or more inches of snow accumulation. Other high elevations such as the Absaroka and Bighorn Ranges have a 20-50% chance of seeing 3 inches. Models are trying to show the chance for light snowfall across the lower elevations of central and northern WY. However, the dynamics are not very favorable as mentioned before so chances for any snow accumulation at this time look very low. The system moves out by Wednesday afternoon, leaving behind much colder temperatures. If any snow accumulation does occur overnight, temperatures may be even colder than what is currently forecast. Currently Wednesday nights lows look to get into the 20s east of the Divide and teens west of the Divide. As mentioned earlier, if snow accumulation does occur especially for western valleys these lows could be even colder. There remains the potential for another possibly more potent system to impact the region by the end of the work week into the weekend. However, being so far out and with how volatile the current set up is it's tough to know what to expect at this time. Long range models continue to flip-flop with not much consensus at this time. So, stay tuned as it is looking like the upcoming work week may be quite eventful for the Cowboy State.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 408 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of a light shower at or in the vicinity of KJAC, KBPI, and KPNA through 03Z. Given the very low chances, there is no mention in the aforementioned TAFs. Early Sunday, there is a 20 to 30 percent chance in fog/low cloud development at KRKS, KBPI, and KPNA and these chances are reflected in a FEW low cloud group at this time. Otherwise, there is high confidence in dry and VFR flight conditions the entire TAF period at KCOD, KRIW, KCPR, KLND, and KWRL.

Breezy west to northwest winds, with occasional gusts around 20 kts, are forecast at KCOD, KRIW, KRKS, KPNA, and KBPI the first part of the TAF period behind a frontal passage. These winds are expected to weaken by 09Z, at the latest, and be light the remainder of the TAF period. Winds increase at KCPR shortly after 06Z and remain breezy through 00Z Monday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.