textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions prevail across much of the state through the upcoming weekend.

- Elevated fire weather concerns continue to increase across central and eastern WY for the start of next week.

- An active weather pattern looks to bring multiple rounds of snow to western WY through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1027 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Not much has changed regarding the previous forecast discussion. Mild and dry conditions persist across nearly all of the state today through the weekend. Highs are forecast to be nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal with temperatures east of the Divide reaching the low to mid 50s. Snow cover and low clouds should limit warming west of the Divide with temperatures only reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. A few very isolated snow showers remain possible across the higher elevations of western and northwestern WY today. The main focus over the next few days will be the increasing elevated fire weather concerns that are likely to develop for the start of next week. Models continue to show strong 700 mb winds of 55 knots or more moving across the region for Monday and Tuesday. These winds are in association with a nearing disturbance that will bring more snow to western WY. The lack of moisture east of the Divide has lead to rapidly curing fuels. As a result, portions of Natrona and Johnson Counties have already reached critical fuel status. There does look to be some warranted concern regarding the combination of strong gusty winds, low min RH values, and dry fuels for the upcoming week. The increasing possibility for elevated to critical fire weather concerns will need to be monitored over the next few days. As for precipitation chances with the upcoming active weather pattern. Western WY looks prime to see an extended duration of light to moderate snowfall through the week. Unfortunately, models continue to show this moisture struggle to translate east of the Divide, which has been the main theme of this winter. A lack of organization, favorable flow, and moisture look to be the main culprits that will hinder precipitation for the upcoming week over central and eastern WY. So it is likely we see a repeat of December, where western WY saw rounds of snow and other locations remained warm, dry, and windy.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

I talked in a discussion a few weeks ago about the markers of the approach of Spring. We passed one a week ago, when we entered solar Spring. The sun is now back to the equivalent of a late October sun angle. We are reaching the next two markers. One is that average temperatures start going up by a degree every few days, accelerating as we head toward the end of the month. The second is not as fun. With the earlier sunrises, it is when I drive home after a night shift with the sun of horizon burning into my retinas. However, we have barely had a winter, especially by Wyoming standards. And this will continue for at least the next three or four days.

We will have a bit, emphasis on bit, of a weather maker today in the form of a shortwave moving through the area. As has been the case with many systems, it is rather moisture starved and will only produce a few snow showers over the northwestern mountains. As has been the case most of the winter, little or no precipitation will fall east of the Divide. We can't rule out some patchy fog in the western valleys as well, but nothing has formed so far. We will add it if things trend toward it.

Otherwise, ridging will control the weather through the weekend and bring mainly dry and mild weather. There could be a few showers in the northwestern mountains, but nothing impactful. We do have some other weather concerns though. The ridge will begin to flatten a bit as we head toward Sunday. With increasing 700 millibar wind, the favored prefrontal locations, like Casper, will begin to see some gusty wind. The chance of high wind gusts is small though, generally less than 1 out of 6 chances. Although it is February, we have had some fires already this month and more elevated fire weather is looking like a good possibility, as relative humidity falls toward 20 percent. These conditions look to repeat on Monday.

We may finally have somewhat of a pattern change as we head toward Tuesday, as a Pacific trough and cold front approach the west. Ensemble guidance is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches of snow across the western mountains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Areas east of the Divide will likely see little to no precipitation from this system due to downsloping flow. However, there is the possibility of high wind. This is a decent set up with the passing trough and 700 millibar wind rising to 60 to 65 knots on Tuesday. One thing working against it though is the best jet forcing will remain across Colorado. Nevertheless, many areas east of the Divide have at least a 1 out of 2 chance of 55 mph or greater wind gusts.

The transition to a wetter pattern is greater than 1 out of 2 for the rest of the week, with the 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing a greater than average chance of above average precipitation with a mean longwave trough across the Northern Rockies. However, with the flow more zonal, origin of the air masses looks to be largely Pacific. As a result, temperatures should only fall back to near normal to somewhat above normal. A couple other systems should bring some additional precipitation for the middle and end of next week. However, details on timing and amounts remain highly uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 421 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Most CU has thinned out this afternoon, with only some lingering clouds in the vicinity of KJAC mountains. Midlevel clouds will continue and vary around KJAC overnight, but remain around 8000 ft. Remaining sites will only see sct high cirrus through the night. VFR conditions expected for all sites during the day Saturday, with minimal high clouds only. Gusty winds will return to KCPR, gusting 25kts, and into KCOD/KRKS gusting near 20kts.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.