textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Subzero temperatures will occur tonight across much of the area.

- Another cold/arctic front brings another chance of light snow from Saturday night into Sunday.

- The beginning and middle of next week looks largely dry with moderating temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 1200 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

IR continues to depict the cold cloud tops across the state, wrapping around the upper level trough positively tilted across the upper Rockies. The main finger of the PFJ will continue to push south and southeast that will finally tap into much better moisture as it progresses later tonight. This will be the big impact winter weather event for the Great Plains and southern regions of the country. As for here in our CWA, radar indicates the light snow tapering off with its southeastward progression this afternoon. Cloudy skies remain through sunset improving overnight that will give way to the coldest morning low temperatures east of the Divide Saturday morning.

The cold frontal passage later Saturday evening still on track with minimal impact outside of the some light snow in similar areas as today before tapering off Sunday morning. Ridging then builds back in with dry conditions and a warming trend back to seasonable temperatures Sunday and even above average Monday and through much of next week. No indications of any big weather system in the long term with mainly dry conditions the remainder of the month and into early February.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

If you live in western and central Wyoming and don't like winter, you have been living a charmed life so far. Well that has come to an end this morning as an Arctic front has dropped southward across the area and given a slap in the face of the fine people of western and central Wyoming and snapped us back to reality. There is also some light snow falling across the area. We will talk about these below.

We will start with the snow. For the most part it has been light given the very dry air mass behind the front. There has been a bit of wind but by Wyoming standards this is nothing. Reasoning remains similar to yesterday as well. The most impacted areas will be areas prone to northerly flow, with an emphasis on areas east of Thermopolis and especially around Casper where there will be a bit of right rear quadrant jet energy to enhance the lift of what little moisture we have. The main area of concern is Natrona County. Areas near Casper have around a 1 out 2 chance of an inch or more of snow, but the chance of 3 inches is 1 out of 6 at most. The other area of concern is Thermopolis to Ten Sleep with around 1 in 2 chance of an inch of snow, but being further from the jet energy the chance of 3 inches is almost zero. This, combined with wind that is not very strong and expected to decrease through the day, means impacts will not be severe and we will not issue any highlights. There could be some snow in southern Wyoming as well, but amounts here would be light. All snow should end in the evening as the front moves away.

And now we move on to temperatures. With the Arctic air moving in and cloud cover lingering, temperatures will not rise much at all today and may slowly fall, remaining in the teens and single digits east of the Divide. This still looks to be the coldest air of the season so far, with 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 20C. We lowered highs several degrees as a result. The next question is tonight, will some areas see below zero lows for the first time this season? We are now strongly leaning toward yes. It now appears we will see some clearing after midnight, allowing for better radiational cooling. The ensembles give at least a 2 out of 3 chance of lows below zero for most locations. Areas where the cold air pools and areas with some snow cover, like Natrona and Johnson County as well as portions of the Bighorn Basin, have a chance to drop under 10 below zero. The next question is, do we need cold highlights? Right now, the answer is no. The chance of lows of 20 below zero are very small, and with wind expected to be light, most areas will not reach criteria. It will be the coldest night in quite a while though.

Saturday looks like a mainly dry but cold day across the area but a bit milder for some with some breezes mixing the atmosphere a bit, especially in the wind prone areas. Then, the final in a series of Arctic Fronts drops across the area for Saturday night. Like the others, there is not a lot of moisture with it. This one has a bit more jet forcing with it though. So, it looks a bit wetter than yesterday. At this time, things still look sub-advisory with snowfall amounts. The only location with greater than a 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches or more is the western Bighorns, where there may be a bit of upslope to enhance rates a bit. With the jet, this could be more of a banded type of snow, with most guidance favoring from Worland through Casper. Again, this is not a major storm but will likely be some more accumulating snow. Any snow here should end by sunset on Sunday. It will bring some reinforcing cold air, with another day of very cold temperatures and a cold night Sunday night.

We should then enter a quieter period as ridging builds into the area. Temperatures are the main question here. Normally breezier areas should mix out and see a return to near to somewhat above normal temperatures by Tuesday. There is more of a question for the basins where inversions may keep temperatures cooler. Still up in the air right now. However, no major storms are expected through at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 426 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals.

All west of the Divide terminals are forecast to remain dry and largely VFR throughout the TAF period. Clouds are now expected to gradually diminish through roughly 06Z to 10Z as drier air behind a weak boundary moves into the area. However, low clouds remain possible during this timeframe, and perhaps a few hours beyond 10Z, at all west of the Divide terminals. Confidence in these low clouds being dense enough to cause MVFR flight conditions is between 20% and 30%. Given this lower confidence, VFR flight conditions are being maintained at this time but the potential is reflected in a SCT015, SCT030, or FEW030 group. Otherwise, expect relatively light winds much of the TAF period. Winds increase and become breezy late in the TAF period, especially at KPNA and KBPI where gusts between 20 kts and 25 kts are forecast.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals.

At KCPR and KWRL, light snow and any associated reduced flight conditions are expected to diminish by 01Z, with MVFR clouds lingering a few hours longer at KCPR. Confidence has increased to around 40% in MVFR flight conditions at KRIW and KLND to start the TAF period. There is higher confidence that MVFR ceilings will persist at KLND through the overnight hours compared to KRIW. All east of the Divide terminals can expect dry conditions a majority, if not the entire TAF period. The exception is KCOD where there is a 30% chance of light snow along a cold front after 22Z Saturday. Winds remain relatively light throughout the TAF period. Mountain obscuration is expected through at least 02Z around KCOD and 09Z around KCPR.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.