textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 40%-90%+ chance of widespread precipitation west of the Continental Divide most of the day today. Snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are forecast across the Tetons and Gros Ventre Mountains, the Salt River and Wyoming Ranges, and the western Wind River Range.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 5PM today for the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains, with winter travel conditions expected over Teton Pass. The most likely period of heaviest snowfall, with possible rates of 0.5 inch/hour, is between 6AM and 3PM today.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through early next week. There will be a few precipitation chances in the next week, mainly Thursday and again Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

08Z satellite water vapor imagery shows a swath of Pacific moisture advecting into Wyoming thanks to a developing upper-level low off the coast of central California. Surface observations indicate that a warm front is more lagged behind, presumably collocated with a vorticity maximum currently (08Z) south of the southern Wyoming border. This warm front is serving as a moisture boundary, with the greater available moisture south of the front. Through the morning the vorticity maximum and the associated warm front and moisture will traverse northwards into the state. As this northward movement occurs, precipitation chances (40%-90%) will quickly ramp up west of the Continental Divide.

There is high confidence that warm air advection behind the front, increased moisture, and favorable orographics in southwesterly flow will bring accumulating snow to the Tetons and Gros Ventre Mountains, the Salt River and Wyoming Ranges, and western Wind River Mountains today. Although there is high confidence in the occurrence of snow for these areas, confidence in snow amounts has decreased a decent amount over the last 24 hours. Through 5PM this evening, there is a 50% to 90% chance of at least 6 inches of snow across the Tetons, including Teton Pass (50% chance), and higher elevations of the Gros Ventre Mountains. For these same areas, probabilities of 10 inches of snow or more is considerably lower (10%-20%), except for the highest peaks of the Tetons. Given that snow totals still fall in that 6 to 10 inch range, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains until 5PM this evening. The period of greatest snow accumulation is most likely to occur from 6AM to 3PM, where snow rates up to 0.5 inch per hour are possible due to the strongest warm air advection and support aloft being present. Winter travel conditions are still anticipated today across Teton Pass.

3 to 10 inches of snow are forecast for the Salt River and Wyoming Ranges and the western Wind River Mountains. However, we still feel conformable not adding these locations to the Winter Weather Advisory given the higher amounts will likely fall in not widely traveled areas. Northern portions of Star Valley and Jackson Hole Valley will see the most snow accumulation today for the low elevations west of the Continental Divide. The most snow accumulation wording should be taken loosely as there is only a 30% chance of 2 inches or more, with current snow amount spreads between 0.5 and 2 inches for these areas. Most other low elevation areas west of the Divide will be lucky to see 0.5 inches. These low snow amounts are largely due to a bulk of the snow falling during the daylight hours when temperatures range from the low to mid 30s (70%- 90% chance of temperatures being above 32 degrees) to 40s. Most of these other low elevation areas will likely see a rain/snow mix or just rain much of the day.

Most locations east of the Divide will remain dry today with abundant cloud cover. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s to low 50s east of the Divide. However, the current forecasted high temperatures could be a bit too warm given the abundant cloud cover that is forecast. The warmest locations will be across Natrona and southern Johnson County due to gusty 20 to 30 mph southwesterly winds.

Precipitation chances largely come to an end this evening as flow in the low levels becomes more westerly due to the warm front retreating back to the south. Lingering light mountain snow and low elevation rain and/or snow across southern Wyoming is possible through Thursday evening as the previously mentioned California upper-level low, and associated trough, slowly moves onshore into the far southwest CONUS. By Friday and Saturday there is a reasonable amount of consensus among guidance that flow aloft becomes zonal and largely unsaturated. To start the weekend mostly dry weather and 5 to 15 degrees above normal temperatures are forecast, with the warmest areas being east of the Divide and across southern Wyoming. Deep southwesterly flow takes hold of the region as a west CONUS trough develops Sunday into the first half of next week. This means that continued above normal temperatures are favored with a few precipitation chances as embedded shortwaves traverse the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions to start the period at all TAF sites. MVFR conditions west of the Divide after 14-15Z with light snow pushing in for JAC/BPI/PNA, becoming a mix at RKS after 17Z. This will end by 00-02Z with lingering low but VFR ceilings through the overnight hours not improving until the next TAF cycle. Mid level ceilings and dry conditions east of the Divide expected. Light winds for all locations 10kts or less except for CPR seeing gusts up to 25kts during peak heating of the afternoon between 19Z through 01Z before cutting off due to radiational cooling.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ012.