textproduct: Western and Central Wyoming

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder today with areas of light snow following the passage of an Arctic Front.

- Another front brings another chance of light snow from Saturday night into Sunday.

- The beginning and middle of next week looks largely dry with moderating temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

If you live in western and central Wyoming and don't like winter, you have been living a charmed life so far. Well that has come to an end this morning as an Arctic Front has dropped southward across the area and given a slap in the face of the fine people of western and central Wyoming and snapped us back to reality. There is also some light snow falling across the area. We will talk about these below.

We will start with the snow. For the most part is has been light given the very dry air mass behind the front. There has been a bit of wind but by Wyoming standards this is nothing. Reasoning remains similar to yesterday as well. The most impacted areas will be areas prone to northerly flow, with an emphasis on areas east of Thermopolis and especially around Casper where there will be a bit of right rear quadrant jet energy to enhance the lift of what little moisture we have. The main area of concern is Natrona County. Areas near Casper have around a 1 out 2 chance of an inch of more of snow but the chance of 3 inches is 1 out of 6 at most. The other area of concern is Thermopolis to Ten Sleep with around 1 in 2 chance of an inch of snow but being further from the jet energy the chance of 3 inches is almost zero. This, combined with wind that is not very strong and expected to decrease through the day means impacts will not be severe and we will not issue any highlights. There could be some snow in southern Wyoming as well but amounts here would be light. All snow should end in the evening as the front moves away.

And now we move on to temperatures. With the Arctic air moving in and cloud cover lingering, temperatures will not rise much at all today and may slowly fall, remaining in the teens and single digits East of the Divide. This still looks to be the coldest air of the season so far with 700 millibar temperatures falling to around minus 20. We lowered highs several degrees as a result. The next question is tonight, will some areas see below zero lows for the first time this season? We are now strongly leaning toward yes. It now appears we will see some clearing after midnight, allowing for better radiational cooling. The ensembles give at least a 2 out of 3 chance of lows below zero for most locations. Areas where the cold air pools and areas with some snow cover, like Natrona and Johnson County as well as portions of the Bighorn Basin, have a chance to drop under 10 below zero. The next question is, do we need cold highlights? Right now, the answer is no. The chance of lows of 20 below zero are very small, and with wind expected to be light, most areas will not reach criteria. It will be coldest night in quite a while though.

Saturday looks like a mainly dry but cold day across the area but a bit milder for some with some breezes mixing the atmosphere a bit, especially in the wind prone areas. Then, the final in a series of Arctic Fronts drops across the area for Saturday night. Like the others, there is not a lot of moisture with it. This one has a bit more jet forcing with it though. So, it looks a bit wetter than yesterday. At this time, things still look sub advisory with snowfall amounts with the only location with greater than a 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches or more is the western Bighorns where there may be a bit of upslope to enhance rates a bit. With the jet, this could be more of a banded type of snow, with most guidance favoring from Worland through Casper. Again, this is not a major storm but will likely be some more accumulating snow. Any snow here should end by sunset on Sunday. It will bring some reinforcing cold air, with another day of very cold temperatures and a cold night Sunday night.

We should then enter a quieter period as ridging builds into the area. Temperatures are the main question here. Normally breezier areas should mix out and see a return to near to somewhat above normal temperatures by Tuesday. There is more of a question for the basins where inversions may keep temperatures cooler. Still up in the air right now. However, no major storms are expected through at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 403 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

Ceilings will lower to around 7000 feet from north to south through the morning. Lower ceilings will lead to mountain obscurations over portions of Yellowstone and the Absarokas. Conditions are expected to remain mainly dry through the TAF period with the exception of KRKS, where there could be a snow shower after 02Z. Wind should remain on the light side through the TAF period, generally 10 knots or less.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

Areas of light snow will be around through through around 00Z, especially in vicinity of KCPR, KCOD and KWRL. The lowest ceilings are expected in vicinity of KCPR, where periods of MVFR conditions are likely through much of the period with a combination of snow and lower ceilings. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility will also be possible in vicinity of KWRL and KCOD, mainly until around 18 to 19Z Friday. We can't rule out a shower in vicinity of KRIW and KLND but not enough confidence to include. Mountain obscurations will be common through 00Z, especially the Bighorns and Casper Mountain. Sky will clear from north to south after 00Z tonight with VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites after 06Z tonight.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.