textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday afternoon over portions of western Nevada and the Sierra.

* Gusty to strong winds return Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, with winds peaking on Saturday bringing impacts to fire weather, aviation, and recreation.

* A significant cooling trend is expected for Friday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Today will bring low 90s back over western Nevada and 80s to Sierra valleys before temperatures start to moderate for Friday. We will still see similar readings across the region, but the warming trend will be put on hold as a trough passes this weekend. The main feature to watch for today will be chances for showers and low-end thunderstorms chances. The recent guidance suggests showers could be found as far north as I-80, with some also showing showers nearing the Black Rock Playa. Showers should remain light, with amounts of only a couple hundredths falling from fast-moving, shallow storms and showers. Chances are generally 10-25%, with a concentration near the northern Sierra for early afternoon and then for Mono and Mineral counties later in the day. Showers will move east by late tonight.

Friday will see increasing winds with gusts 20-25 mph bringing impacts to aviation and recreation interests. By Saturday, the trough base will bring a tightening gradient overhead, increasing winds further with gusts 35-45 mph in valleys and 55-65 mph for wind prone areas such as Washoe Valley and the foothills and ridges. This pattern brings concerns for choppy lake waters, blowing dust and fire weather. The trough exits eastward by Sunday morning, but until then, expect breezy conditions to prevail. Shower chances do appear for the northern borders of California and Nevada late day Saturday, but most areas will remain dry. As the trough exits for Sunday, temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with highs across western Nevada only reaching the mid-70s and Sierra valleys will have to settle with upper 60s to low 70s.

After Sunday, a warming trend will reemerge for the new week. Winds look to return to typical afternoon breezes. Some low-end shower chances reappear for mid-to-late week, but with variance in modeling, confidence is low for this solution. HRICH

AVIATION

* Showers and storms are possible today, with chances ranging 10-25% for most area terminals. Showers will develop near the Sierra around 20-21z, then move to the east throughout the day. Amounts are expected to be low, but showers and storms may bring lowering CIGs and VIS with terrain obscuration, and areas of LLWS and turbulence possible. Winds will be generally 10-15 kts or less, with gusts to 25 kts possible today.

* Winds increase for Friday, with gusts to 20-25 kts for Friday. Then winds increase for Saturday, with gusts reaching 35-45 kts for leeside valley terminals and potentially to 55-65 kts for Sierra terminals. Both days will feature LLWS and turbulence. HRICH

FIRE WEATHER

An approaching upper level storm system brings strong winds to most of the region for Friday and Saturday. Elevated to near critical conditions are expected on Friday for portions of northern Washoe, eastern Lassen, Churchill, and northern Lyon counties. The minimum relative humidity of 10-15% will accompany winds gusting to 25-35 mph in the late afternoon and evening. No products are expected as the areas are isolated and the timing is expected to be short, but it will be highlighted in the Fire Planning Forecast.

By Saturday, winds increase significantly with gusts to 35-45 mph and 55-65 mph in wind prone areas. Min RH increases slightly to 10- 20%, however, the strong winds will overcome any increase in RH.

Conditions will improve by Sunday morning as the winds slowly come down on Saturday night.

-HC/HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.