textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds and minor impacts to travel and recreation continue Thursday afternoon. * Rain, and high elevation snow showers arrive on Friday with stronger winds renewing travel and recreation impacts.

* Unsettled weather continues this weekend and through Christmas with impacts to holiday travel increasingly likely.

DISCUSSION

Gusty winds continue to surface across much of the region as 19z obs reveal SW/W gusts of 30-40 mph across valley communities and 50-60 mph through wind prone areas such as I-580 near Washoe Valley. These winds and subsequent impacts (e.g., choppy lakes, crosswind driving hazards, bumpy flights) should last through the early afternoon before subsiding between 3-5 PM PST. Ridge winds also weaken in the afternoon, but remain elevated into the weekend so aviation impacts may also persist. Light showers have all but diminished as of 11 AM with only a few lingering showers in the Sierra, which should completely taper in the afternoon.

Weak ridging will briefly displace the moisture feed to the north on Thursday, confining shower activity to areas near the Oregon border. Winds will become gusty again Thursday afternoon, but will be much weaker than today's winds as SW/W gusts reach 30-40 mph. The exception to this will be from the Surprise Valley into N Washoe County where 45-55 mph gusts will be common.

Friday offers our next opportunity for rain, high elevation snow, and strong, gusty winds as moist, high-amplitude zonal flow overspreads the region. As a result, shower coverage expands across NE California into N Washoe County, and south towards the Tahoe Basin on Friday where precip odds (70-90%) are greatest. Snow levels will remain elevated (above 8500 feet), so snowfall will be confined to highest Sierra peaks. Rain may sneak into the Sierra Front and W NV Basin and Range, but chances are lower. Another round of strong winds is in store on Friday with gusts possibly reaching 40-50 mph across lower valleys. As such, expect renewed wind impacts to travel and recreation on Friday.

While a brief lull in rain/snow is expected Friday night into Saturday morning, minimal change in weather pattern will keep the region under a belt of moisture through the weekend into early next week. It's increasingly likely that we'll see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall below 8000-9000 feet between Sunday and Monday, which result in rising creeks and streams. Unsettled weather continues around Christmas, and lower snow levels may yield snow impacts to holiday travel in and across the Sierra.

-Salas

AVIATION

Mountain wave turbulence and LLWS impacts will continue to be of greatest concern through the afternoon before winds aloft and at the surface weaken. W FL100 winds of 50-70 kts will continue to overspread the region through 00z, which will likely be the period of most intense mountain wave turbulence impacts. Meanwhile, SW/W winds continue to gust to 20-30 kts at Tahoe terminals and 30-40 kts at KMMH and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV until 00z before subsiding. A brief lull in W FL100 winds (20-40 kts) should mitigate turbulence/LLWS issues between 00z and 06z before increasing to 40-50 kts and becoming northwesterly Thursday morning.

Shower activity continues to taper off, but residual low clouds may obstruct surrounding terrain at KTRK and KTVL this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR conditions are expected until Friday.

-Salas

HYDROLOGY

A series of warm and wet storms are expected rises in rivers and streams through the area. Flood risk will be mitigated by limited snow covered area and surface soil conditions that have dried during the last several weeks of warm and dry conditions. That said, some minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible during any prolonged periods of high intensity rainfall. Mainstem river flooding is not currently expected, but keep an eye out for forecast updates. Additional storms mid next week could cause additional rises and potential flood concerns, especially in drainages with large mountain areas below about 6,000 feet. The Susan river is one example to keep a close watch on next week.

-Bardsley

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002>005.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ070>073.