textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue today for far northeast CA and northwest NV, with possible impacts to fire, aviation, and recreation. * Seasonal temperatures and mostly dry conditions prevail across the area this weekend.

* Above average temperatures, and widespread moderate HeatRisk return by Monday for western NV, with typical afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION

Visible satellite imagery is showing a cumulus field developing over portions of far northern Washoe, Pershing, eastern Churchill counties in NV, and over eastern Lassen/Modoc counties in CA. These are the main areas where we are expecting showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as they have the right ingredients for convection. Moisture is good with PWs around 0.5-0.75 inches; there is decent instability with MUCAPE around 200-700 J/kg, and effective shear of 25-30 kts. The nature of the storms per the CAMs show isolated cells, and with dry lower levels of the atmosphere this will lead to isolated dry lightning with any storm. However, the aforementioned good PWs will lead to brief periods of heavy rain at the center of the storms as they move east at 15-20 kts. Storms are also expected to be initially elevated along with DCAPE of 700-900 J/kg which leads to potential gusts of 45-55 mph. Small hail is also possible with any cell.

High temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow will be seasonal with max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s western NV and NE CA, and in the mid 70s to mid 80s for Sierra communities. We will continue a warm trend over the next few days as an upper trough moves east leading to zonal flow, and followed by a weak upper ridge for most of the work week. Therefore, expect temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this week over western NV, leading to widespread moderate HeatRisk. The NV Basin and Range has a 45-75% chance of exceeding 100F on Tuesday and Wednesday, while Reno has a 25-30% chance of reaching triple digits.

Late next week, temperatures cool down to seasonal averages again with the passage of another upper level trough through the PacNW bringing cool air back into the region along with increased winds and low chances for showers and thunderstorms. Details are tbd as there is uncertainty with the actual movement/location of the trough late next week.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue at all western NV and Sierra terminals. Typical west winds return in the afternoon to early evening with sustained 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts, then light and VRB overnight in the morning. -SHRA/TSRA chances are less than 10% at all terminals. There is a low chance for patchy for for KTRK overnight.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.