textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm with above average temperatures through Friday, with isolated Moderate HeatRisk for warmer lower valleys.

* Isolated shower chances remain low through midweek, with increasing winds Wednesday bringing brief elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.

* Stronger winds and cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns possible.

DISCUSSION

Warm this Week:

* Weak ridging over CA/NV will keep temperatures above early June averages through Friday. Highs will generally reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for western NV valleys, with upper 70s to near 80 for Sierra communities. Warmest days remain Wednesday and Friday, with isolated Moderate HeatRisk possible for the warmer lower valleys of west-central NV.

Isolated Showers and Midweek Winds:

* Most areas remain dry through midweek. Low-end shower chances, around 10% or less, continue near Mono County this afternoon and Tuesday, then shift toward far northeast CA and the OR border Wednesday as a weak shortwave brushes the Pacific NW. Winds increase Wednesday afternoon, with the best signal for gusts greater than 35 mph focused along the Sierra Front, northeast CA, western NV, and portions of west-central NV. This may produce areas of elevated fire weather concerns where fuels are receptive.

Gusty, Cooler Weekend:

* A deeper Pacific trough approaches the West Coast late week into the weekend, bringing another round of increased winds and a cooling trend. Winds may begin to increase Friday, with the stronger wind period still favored Saturday. Fire weather concerns may increase again where fuels remain receptive, but the magnitude and coverage will depend on the eventual trough track, wind strength, and afternoon RH. Shower chances remain low, generally 10% or less, although a slightly wetter trend remains possible by Sunday depending on how far inland the trough moves. Temperatures cool to near or slightly below early June averages by Sunday.

-Johnston

AVIATION

* VFR conditions are expected at the main terminals through Wednesday. The main aviation concern will be increasing afternoon winds, especially Wednesday as W-SW gusts reach 25-30 kt for Sierra Front terminals and near 25 kt at KMMH. Sierra ridge gusts may reach 30-35 kt Wednesday afternoon, producing areas of mountain wave and lee-side turbulence near and east of the Sierra. Periods of LLWS will also be possible. * Winds remain lighter today and Tuesday, with typical afternoon W- NW breezes generally 15-20 kt. Isolated showers remain possible near Mono County today and Tuesday, but chances are 10% or less with low confidence in direct terminal impacts. Brief early morning valley fog near KTRK remains possible, otherwise VFR prevails.

-Johnston

FIRE WEATHER

* Dry and warmer than normal conditions prevail through much of the week outside of low-end shower chances near Mono County this afternoon and Tuesday, then near far northeast CA and the OR border Wednesday.

* Elevated fire weather concerns are possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly across western NV, northeast CA, and portions of west- central NV, where the best overlap of gusts over 30 mph and single-digit minimum RH is expected.

* A longer period of elevated fire weather conditions is possible Saturday afternoon as a Pacific trough brings stronger winds to the region. The greatest concerns remain focused across western NV and northeast CA.

-Johnston

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.