textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions prevail while temperatures warm up again, with record highs again within reach this weekend.

* Light winds today will be followed by more typical zephyr-type afternoon west breezes this weekend.

* A shift to a cooler and wetter pattern with stronger winds arrives next week, with increased chances of below average temperatures by the start of April.

DISCUSSION

After yesterday's cooling to more March-like levels, temperatures trend upward again today, although some of the warming will be limited by a thicker deck of mid-high level cloud cover and light winds. The weekend will bring a more notable warmup with highs near or above 80 degrees for western NV valleys and mid 60s-lower 70s for Sierra communities, while afternoon zephyr-type breezes return with gusts up to 25 mph. Record highs are well within reach Saturday (76 degrees for Reno and 66 for South Lake Tahoe), while Sunday's will be more difficult (78 for Reno and 70 for South Tahoe). Some of the high resolution guidance hints at a few brief pop-up showers late this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon for Mineral County and adjacent areas, triggered by weak upper level disturbances moving across central CA. However, with the dry lower atmosphere and limited instability, the potential for rain reaching the ground is quite low (below 10%). The most likely expectation is cumulus buildups and maybe some virga with isolated wind gusts up to 30 mph.

The Pacific storm door then opens next week with two periods of activity from late Monday into Tuesday and again Wednesday- Thursday. The first storm continues to look less impressive in terms of precip amounts, with more of a showery scenario and sparse high elevation snowfall (generally less than 6" and limited to 7500+ feet). Winds are likely to pick up with this storm Monday afternoon, with solid potential for 35+ mph gusts in lower elevations and Sierra ridge top gusts of 60+ mph. Temperatures will also take a tumble, settling to near average levels by the end of March. The second storm could potentially bring a wider range of winter and wind-related impacts, although the track continues to vary between a direct hit over the Sierra and western NV to a glancing blow with the bulk of the precip near or north of the OR border. If this second storm drops in over our area, it would be colder than the early week system, dropping snow levels below 7000 ft and even as low as 5000-5500 ft by early Thursday, and produce wind gusts stronger than Monday's storm. At this point for the first couple days of April, plan on impacts to air and ground travel due to gusty winds, and snow accumulations producing slick driving conditions over Sierra passes, and maybe down to lake level around the Tahoe basin. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through this weekend with a widespread deck of thicker mid-high cloud cover through early this evening. For this weekend, this higher cloud deck will be thinner overall but may still produce BKN coverage at times.

Light winds prevail today, with zephyr-type breezes returning each afternoon this weekend (gusts near 20 kt) at most terminals. FL100 winds increase by late Sunday, producing increased areas of lee-side turbulence.

More significant impacts to air travel are likely next week as Pacific storms return, with stronger winds arriving by Monday. By the start of April, snow potential increases for the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals, with rain for western NV sites and more widespread wind concerns. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.