textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty afternoon winds lead to minor aviation and recreation impacts, but with critical fire weather conditions through Sunday. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely each afternoon this weekend in portions of Mono and Mineral counties.

* Seasonably hot weather prevails through next week with periods of moderate to isolated major HeatRisk across lower elevation valleys.

DISCUSSION

Hot and generally dry weather continue this weekend. Skies are mostly clear as this morning with some cumulus development in the southern portions of the CWA. We are currently seated under a sort of dry slot between an upper ridge to our east and an upper low off the PacNW. The ridge to our east is dirty with trapped moisture under it, which will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms in portions of Mineral and Mono each afternoon this weekend per the HREF members. Main concerns with any storm will be gusty outflow winds to 35-40 mph, brief periods of heavy rain and dry lightning outside of rain cores. Furthermore, this set up allows for stronger afternoon winds compared to the last few days, especially for the Sierra Front and NE CA with gusts generally between 25-35 mph and isolated gusts up to 40-45 mph over mountain ridges. This will lead to minor impacts to aviation and recreational interests, as well as critical fire weather conditions in the aforementioned areas. More of this in the Fire Section below. Temperatures this weekend will be seasonably hot with temps in the upper 90s to around 100F in valleys of western NV and NE CA, higher elevations including Sierra communities will be in the 80s.

A similar pattern continues next week with the upper high moving towards the Southern Plains, and the upper trough becoming deeper to our west, and leading to a looser the pressure gradient over our region. Therefore, typical afternoon winds return along with drier conditions, POPs below 5%, and high temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than this weekend. For the second half of the week, the upper high retrogrades back towards the Desert Southwest. Main hazard at the moment will be heat. Temperatures climb back up late next week into the upper 90s and around the triple digit mark for all valleys. There is a 75-90% chance of reaching 100F next weekend per NBM guidance if this weather pattern persists.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hrs. Exceptions possible near KMMH and KHTH due to a 10-30% chance of -SHRA/-TSRA. Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Winds will be the main concern with W to SW gusts to 25-30 kts. Minor turbulence and LLWS is possible between 00Z and 18Z Saturday due to FL100 SW winds around 30 kts.

-HC

FIRE WEATHER

Enhanced zephyr breezes with gusts up to 35 mph (isolated gusts up to 40 mph) today through Saturday will create 3 to 6 hours of Red Flag conditions in the afternoon and evening hours across portions of northeast CA and western NV. They also overlap with the Biscar Fire and the new Macy Fire in northern Washoe County. These winds will coincide with minimum RHs of 5-15%, with overnight recoveries 20-45% over the aforementioned areas.

Elevated to critical wind/RH is possible Sunday afternoon in similar areas. A Fire Weather Watch was issued to address this potential fire threat. After Sunday, high pressure with a dry airmass will move overhead, with afternoon winds returning back to our typical breezes (10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph).

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday NVZ458.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening NVZ420-458.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday CAZ270-278.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening CAZ270-278.