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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Warmer conditions for the remainder of the week into this weekend.
* Increased east to southeast breezes Thursday into Friday with stronger ridge top winds peaking Thursday night.
* Cooler temperatures return next week with increased winds followed by chances for rain and mountain snow showers.
DISCUSSION
A high-pressure ridge off the California coast building into the northern Great Basin and a developing low off Southern California will bring easterly breezes on Thursday (gusts 15-25 mph generally, 40-50 mph on ridge tops, and up to 60 mph overnight). Lake Tahoe's western shores may see choppy waters Thursday night. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory is in place for Lake Tahoe from 7 PM thursday through 2 AM on Friday.
By Friday, winds shift to the southeast with afternoon gusts of 15- 25 mph, with localized areas up to 30 mph. Lower humidity (12-20%) will elevate fire weather concerns in these areas. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details.
Winds diminish Saturday, returning to typical southwest/west breezes Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra.
An approaching upper-level trough breaks down the ridge early next week. Monday brings increasing winds with 30-40 mph gusts and renewed fire weather concerns.
Cooler temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s follow Tuesday through Thursday. Showers are expected Tuesday night through Thursday (30- 50% chance south of US-50, 15-30% elsewhere), with light rain in valleys and snow above 8000-8500 feet in Mono County. HRICH
AVIATION
* VFR conditions prevail this weekend under clear skies. East/southeast gusts up to 15-20 kts this afternoon through Friday. Stronger ridge east winds (40-50 kts) today through early Friday may trigger mountain wave turbulence and LLWS west of the Sierra and Carson Ranges. HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
* Elevated fire weather conditions are noted for Friday over northern Washoe, portions of southern Washoe and Lassen counties and portions of Mineral County due to gusty winds up to 35 mph and low relative humidity ranging 10-15%. HRICH
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday NVZ002.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday CAZ072.
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