textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions and mostly clear skies persist with cold temperatures through Sunday along with below zero wind chills near the Sierra crest with gusty breezes. * Another storm arrives Monday with valley rain and high elevation mountain snow through Wednesday. Flooding potential exists, but confidence remains low.

DISCUSSION

Our brief break in the active storm pattern has arrived! Don't forget to wear your sunscreen and sunglasses because the sun is reflecting off all that fresh snow cover. Looking out to the rest of the weekend, it will be quite cold out, but fairly typical for late February. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the teens for western NV and NE CA, single digits for the Tahoe Basin, and single digits above and below zero for Mono County. Primary concern for the next few days will be wind chills below zero in the highest terrain at the ridges, so be sure to bundle up in layers.

The next storm arrives on Sunday as a large trough drops just off the Pacific Northwest coastline. There could be multiple waves with this trough and for now it looks like NE CA and far NW NV will get a little preview of gusty winds and some light showers late Sunday into early Monday. The bulk of the storm is still slated to arrive during the Monday-Wednesday timeframe with the most intense precipitation on Tuesday. Snow levels with this first wave on Sunday will still be relatively low (around 6000 feet), but snow levels will gradually rise from Monday into Wednesday to above 7000 to 8000 feet. With what we are looking at right now, we'd plan on seeing heavy, wet snow in the Sierra above 7000-8000 ft and then mostly rain below that threshold.

The combination of rain over snow will lead to rises and fast flows on areas rivers and creeks. While it is still a bit early to say if we will see river flooding, there is a heightened concern. In preparation for the wetter/warmer conditions, everyone should be sure to clear all gutters and drains free of snow. Do you have snow piled up high on your home? Now's the time to ensure it is safely removed ahead of the wet weather next week. Rain on snow could result in roof avalanches and other atypical impacts.

It does look like warmer and drier conditions resume after midweek next week, but we may be dealing with residual rain-on-snow impacts.

-EL

AVIATION

Plan on mostly VFR conditions over the weekend. Some patchy fog is also possible tonight into Sat 15Z at KTRK. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail along with generally light and variable winds. -EL

AVALANCHE

No snow is forecast through the weekend with mostly sunny skies and occasional high clouds.

Winds Saturday: Ridgetop gusts 10 to 40 mph out of the W/SW with wind chills of -10 to -15F.

Sunday: Wind gusts begin to increase on Sunday ahead of the next system with winds 50 to 70 mph possible along the highest ridges.

Monday PM: The next storm arrives with more snow to the mountains along with gusty winds. However, this system is warmer and may lead to rain over snow in elevations below 7 to 8 kft.

-HC/EL

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.