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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty to strong winds this afternoon through Sunday morning, with winds peaking on Saturday bringing impacts to fire weather, aviation, and recreation.

* A significant cooling trend is expected for Friday through early next week, followed by a gradual warm up with dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Winds are already increasing along ridges and winds are expected to be elevated throughout the day. Winds will become more widespread as the day progresses, with gusts in western Nevada valleys reaching 30- 35 mph while ridges are gusting up to 45 mph. Watch for choppy lakes, bumpy plane rides and recreation impacts. As such, there are Lake Wind Advisories up for area lakes this afternoon.

Saturday will really see amplification of winds, starting early and lingering into the overnight hours. Winds will start to increase ahead of sunrise and keep trending gustier through the day. With the downsloping potential developing later in the day possibly coinciding with the timing and placement of the frontal passage, we expect to see gusts 55-65 mph possible along wind prone slopes, while ridges may gust to near 80+ mph, especially along the northern Sierra. Western Nevada valleys could see gusts approaching 40-50 mph during the afternoon hours. The winds look to stay elevated along the ridges through the overnight hours, tapering by late morning. This will bring aviation, recreation and travel concerns for high- profile vehicles, as well as blowing dust near desert sinks and dry lake beds. The winds will work to overcome any relative humidity increases from recent showers, also bringing fire weather concerns to be covered in the Fire Weather section of this discussion.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Sunday once the front passes, leaving behind a cool end to the weekend. Temperatures will slowly rebound into next week, with dry conditions prevailing. HRICH

AVIATION

* Winds are already increasing along ridges this morning, with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Expect LLWS and turbulence today.

* Saturday winds will increase further, with gusts to 60 kts possible for Sierra terminals, while western Nevada valley terminals will see gusts up to 45 kts possible. More LLWS and turbulence is expected for Saturday. HRICH

FIRE WEATHER

An approaching upper level storm system brings strong winds to most of the region today and Saturday. Elevated to near critical conditions are expected on Friday for portions of northern Washoe, eastern Lassen, Churchill, and northern Lyon counties. The minimum relative humidity of 10-15% will accompany winds gusting to 25-35 mph in the late afternoon and evening.

By Saturday, winds increase significantly with widespread gusts to 40-50 mph with 55-65 mph for wind prone areas. Gusty to strong winds are expected with minimum relative humidity above 15-20%, however, the strong winds will overcome any increase in RH.

Conditions will improve by Sunday morning as the winds very slowly come down on Saturday night.

-HC/HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ458.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday NVZ002-004- 005.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002>004.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ420-421.

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night NVZ003.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ423-429.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening CAZ270-278.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday CAZ070>072.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ071-072.

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night CAZ073.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening CAZ274.


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