textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry weather with a minor to moderate HeatRisk will prevail this holiday weekend.

* Typical afternoon breezes may pose minor impacts to fire and recreation into early next week.

* There is a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Sierra each afternoon through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Seasonably warm and mostly dry conditions will prevail through the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures will heat up over the weekend, with highs on the 4th of July expected to reach the mid-to-upper 90s across W.Nevada, the Hwy 395 corridor extending into Susanville, and the Chalfant Valley. E.Sierra communities will generally see mid-80s. These temperatures will yield minor HeatRisk across Sierra communities with moderate HeatRisk across lower W.Nevada valleys over the weekend.

Daytime heating may provide enough instablilty to sprout afternoon cumulus build-ups along the E.Sierra and over portions of Lassen County this afternoon. A few of these build-ups could yield a 15% chance of showers along with a 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon from N.Mono County and into the Tahoe Basin and extending across Lassen County. These low, 10-15% chances will remain in these areas through the weekend with the addition of N.Washoe County by Sunday afternoon.

Typical afternoon zephyr breezes will continue through Saturday with afternoon westerly gusts of around 20-25 mph. However, Sunday afternoon could see a boost to the winds with areas roughly northward of Susanville-Pyramid Lake seeing gust potential of around 30-35 mph. This could result in localized areas of critical fire weather conditions due dry conditions combined with gusty winds across portions of E.Lassen, N.Washoe, and Pershing counties late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Heading into next week, we are favoring a pattern of seasonable heat with dry conditions outside of afternoon cumulus build-ups with low (10-15% chance) of showers or an isolated thunderstorm. Longer term outlooks favor the building of a strong four-corners ridge around 7/10-7/16 which could increase the potential for hotter weather with increasing heat risks. Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes (20-25 kts) prevail through the holiday weekend. Cumulus build-ups along the higher terrain will continue to be common with only a 10-15% chance of maturing into showers and thunderstorms at KTVL and KMMH. Salas/Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.