textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather prevails through Sunday afternoon with areas of wildfire smoke today.

* A weak low pressure system brings a 10% chance of showers for the Sierra and northeast California on Sunday evening into Monday morning. * Warm and above average temperatures prevail through next week, with slightly cooler temperatures possible by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Relatively fair weather is expected again across the region for today with a high pressure ridge building over the SW CONUS. Current satellite imagery shows some monsoonal moisture wrapping around the high pressure and pushing across N CA this morning, allowing for some cloud cover over the region throughout the day. This ridge will allow for dry conditions and daytime high temperatures around 10-15 degrees above early October normals to persist through this weekend. W NV and NE CA valleys have highs in the mid-80s to around the 90 degree mark in the forecast through Sunday with Sierra communities seeing highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s range. The latest HeatRisk product continues to show isolated pockets of moderate HeatRisk this weekend, including the Reno metro area, so please keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans. It's also worth noting that overnight low temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees warmer than normal as well through the weekend and into next week. The latest run of the HRRR smoke product shows smoke from the Dome Fire filtering into the Sierra and Sierra Front through the day with southwest to west winds in the region. Those sensitive to reduced air quality should continue to watch conditions on airnow.gov for more information.

Model guidance then shows a weak upper trough moving toward N CA and interrupting the ridge development late Sunday. This feature then tracks across the southern OR border on Monday. With this pattern aloft, the latest run of the NBM is giving NE CA and the Sierra a 10% or less chance of light showers or possibly virga Sunday evening going into Monday morning. Slightly increased westerly winds are possible on Monday as well, particularly for areas closer to the OR border where the NBM shows a ~25-50% probability for 25+ mph wind gusts. Above normal high temperatures still are in forecast on Monday though they may be up to 5 degrees cooler than the highs experienced over the weekend.

Beyond Monday, ensemble guidance projects the ridge rebuilding in the W CONUS after the weak trough departs the region on Tuesday. This pattern will allow for more dry conditions and above normal temperatures going through next week with W NV valleys being in the mid to upper 80s and the Sierra communities being in the 70s. However, there looks to be a possible pattern change on Friday as the GFS projects a Pac NW trough moving across the NW CONUS while the ECMWF shows a more zonal flow over the region. The GFS solution could bring slightly cooler temperatures by next weekend as a result with the ECMWF staying closer to the temperatures currently forecast during the week. Will continue to monitor upcoming model runs to see how forecast models resolve this discrepancy going forward. -MRC

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected across the region today and tonight with some increased cloud cover. Winds are forecast to gust up to around 15-20 kts between 02/20Z-03/03Z. A dry pattern will continue through the weekend. -MRC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.