textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* After another night of near-freezing temperatures in lower valleys, warmer conditions return for the remainder of the week.

* Dry weather prevails into the weekend, with mainly light winds except for some increased east to southeast breezes by late week.

* Showers, increased winds and colder temperatures could return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Clearing skies overnight brought chilly temperatures into the 20s to lower 30s across most lower elevations, with colder Sierra valleys dipping into the teens this morning. Similar near or below freezing lows are expected again tonight.

As the upper low that brought this recent cool weather moves from the Great Basin to the Rockies, high pressure off the west coast will extend inland across northern CA-NV later this week and hold in place through much of the weekend, keeping the region dry. This will allow for a warmup from mid-late week, with highs peaking in the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 for Sierra communities from Friday through the weekend. Lingering NE-E winds over the Sierra ridges and north winds in west central NV will diminish overnight and Wednesday, but an east to southeast wind gradient returns Thursday through Friday as an upper low redevelops over southern CA. This could bring afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph Thursday-Friday, with Sierra ridge top gusts of 40+ mph. Lighter winds return for the start of the weekend, with zephyr- type southwest-west breezes arriving by Sunday.

For early next week, ensemble/blended guidance is in good agreement for a storm arriving from the northeast Pacific. While some scenarios bring shower chances as soon as late Monday afternoon, the overall consensus favors increasing winds Monday, with best chances for showers (30-50%) and sharply colder conditions from late Monday night through Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday only look to range from the upper 40s-mid 50s and although preliminary snow levels are ranging from 6500-7000 feet in the Sierra, light snow accumulations down to lake level can't be ruled out, with potential rain-snow mix into foothills of far western NV if the storm keeps a track over the Sierra/far western NV. MJD

AVIATION

* VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of this week.

* Mainly light winds are expected through Wednesday, with prevailing N-NE direction. KMMH could see occasional gusts to 20 kt this afternoon thru 01Z. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.