textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm temperatures prevail through Friday with isolated Moderate HeatRisk for some lower valleys, followed by some cooling this weekend.

* Other than low shower chances up to 15% near the eastern Sierra this afternoon, dry weather is expected to prevail for the upcoming week.

* Breezy winds may bring brief elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday, with stronger gusts producing increased potential for elevated to locally critical conditions toward the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Warm this Week:

* Weak ridging over CA/NV will keep temperatures above early June averages through Friday. Highs will generally reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for western NV valleys, with upper 70s to near 80 for Sierra communities. Warmest days remain Wednesday and Friday, with isolated Moderate HeatRisk for the warmer lower valleys of west-central NV.

Isolated Showers and Midweek Winds:

* Most areas remain dry through midweek. Low-end shower chances (15% or less) return for Mono County this afternoon. Otherwise, the latest track of Wednesday's shortwave trough is a bit farther north, essentially eliminating the shower risk near the OR border. Winds increase Wednesday afternoon, with the best signal for gusts of 25-35 mph across western NV from US-50 northward and west of US-95, and far eastern Lassen County. For more details, see the fire weather section below.

Gusty, Cooler Weekend:

* A deeper Pacific trough approaches the west coast late week into the weekend, bringing another round of increased winds and a cooling trend to near or slightly below early June averages by Sunday. Winds begin to increase Friday, with the stronger wind period still favored for Saturday. Confidence remains mixed with the extent and strength of the peak wind gusts, although current scenarios still bring about a 60-80% chance for peak gusts of 35+ mph to much of western NV. Shower chances remain quite low (10% or less) through early next week with more ensemble guidance members presenting dry scenarios regionwide through Sunday.

MJD

AVIATION

* VFR conditions are expected at the main terminals through this week, with drier air and areas of cloud cover limiting the fog potential at KTRK. Isolated showers may form in Mono County this afternoon, but chances for direct impacts to CIGS/VIS at KMMH are 15% or less.

* Winds this afternoon will be similar to Monday, with gusts mainly 15-20 kt. These winds increase by Wednesday afternoon as SW-W gusts reach 25-30 kt for most terminals, except slightly less for the Tahoe area sites. Sierra ridge gusts increase to near 35 kt Wednesday afternoon and although not particularly strong, the SW-W direction of these winds up to FL100 will favor periods of mountain wave turbulence and occasional LLWS near and east of the Sierra.

MJD

FIRE WEATHER

* Last week's rainfall across the eastern Sierra, northeast CA northwest NV and the Basin and Range was abundant, with many locations receiving totals from 0.50" to over 1". Farther south across far western NV southward to Mineral and Mono counties, rainfall totals were more spotty with most sites receiving 0.10"-0.40", with the least rain falling in southeast Mono and southern Mineral counties. The recent and upcoming stretch of warm and dry days will lead to increased drying of vegetation, leading to a mixture of conditions including some pockets of drier grasses which may become more receptive to carrying fire. * Elevated fire weather concerns may return by Wednesday afternoon, mainly across parts of far western and west central NV, where the best overlap of gusts at least 30 mph and minimum RH 15% or lower is expected.

* A longer period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions is still favored for Saturday afternoon as a Pacific trough brings stronger wind gusts (30-40 mph) to the region. The greatest concerns remain focused across much of western NV south of Gerlach and a small portion of Lassen County south and east of Susanville.

MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.