textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Another, quick moving storm brings additional snow and widespread travel impacts across the Sierra and portions of western Nevada through tonight.

* Dry conditions with mild temperatures and light winds prevail from Friday through at least Sunday.

* More winter weather arrives as early as Monday, with higher snow levels bringing potential flooding concerns for lower elevations.

DISCUSSION

From current radar imagery we can determine a handful of things: it continues to snow in the Sierra around the Tahoe Basin, light showers continue to spread along the Sierra Front into the Basin and Range, and more intense bands of snow can be seen populating off of Lake Tahoe. Areas within these more intense snow bands can expect locally higher snowfall totals and snowfall rates, but we'll get into the details below.

The low pressure system continuing our winter weather this week can be seen spinning off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The forecast continues to stay on track with 1-4" of snow on valley floors and 3-6" for foothills above 5000'. Snowfall rates for valleys will remain under 1"/hr but those more intense snow bands could see rates over 1"/hr.

Snow showers will continue in the Sierra through much of today. For details on snowfall totals, rates, and SLRs, please see the Avalanche section below. Areas of NE CA are still on track to see 2-6" of snow, with up to 12" above 7000' and locally up to 18" along the highest peaks through late tonight. Our friends out in the Basin and Range also have the potential to get in on the snow action today. That aforementioned low? There's two tracks that it could take today; a handful of the hi-res models show the low tracking along I-80 out past Winnemucca. However, the other half want to drag the low south towards Tonopah. Depending on this track, we could see additional snow in the Basin and Range, but the question remains where. If it takes the I-80 track, we could see a couple inches in Fernley/Fallon, possibly even down to Yerington. If the low drops south, areas in Hawthorne and Smith Valley could see a couple of inches, with increased snowfall in Mono county as well.

Despite the uncertainty, what we are certain about is travel and commute impacts across much of the area today. The AM commute will be slick along the Sierra Front, especially over bridges, and not just because of light snow showers overnight. Any remaining water will have likely refrozen, creating icy conditions. The PM commute may also experience impacts as the heaviest snowfall is expected by midday. With temperatures plunging overnight after the snow tapers off, be aware of slick and icy patches persisting into the Friday morning commute as well. Remember, take it slow in snow!

Another pleasant weekend is in store as dry conditions settle back in, bringing light winds and mild temperatures. Said conditions will continue through at least Sunday. Model guidance hints at another system arriving as early as Monday. While timing continues to trend this system later and later (seems to be the trend of this season in general), there's higher confidence on this being a warmer system. This will allow for higher snow levels (currently around or above 7000') and the risk for rain on snow, and the corresponding flooding concerns, for valley locations. Stay tuned for more concrete details over the weekend.

-Giralte

AVIATION

LIFR/IFR conditions expected for Sierra terminals through 06Z tonight due to additional SHSN with a 50% chance for 4+" of snow for KTRK/KTVL by early evening (20% chance for KMMH). Sierra Front terminals can expect MVFR/LIFR conditions due to -SHSN today, with the heaviest snowfall expected around 18Z today. There's a 70% chance for at least 1" of snow for KCXP/KMEV, with a 30% chance for the same amount at KRNO by early evening. Showers will decrease in intensity after sunset, wrapping up entirely by early Friday.

Winds will be relatively light for Sierra Front terminals with gusts up to 35 kts for Sierra terminals. LLWS continues for all terminals through early evening.

-Giralte

AVALANCHE

Another round of snow has arrived this early morning, continuing through late tonight, and impacting all avalanche center terrain.

* Snowfall totals and rates: For SAC terrain, 6-12" with up to 18" along the crest and locally up to 24" west of Mt. Tallac. For BAC terrain, 8-18" of snow. For ESAC terrain, 4-6" along US-395 with 10-14" along the crest, locally up to 18" in the Mammoth area. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr, with 1.5-2"/hr in the late morning through the early afternoon.

* SLRs and SWE: SLRs look to remain around 14-16:1 with this system while SWE ranges from 0.75-1.25", coming up a bit from the previous forecast. Expect locally lower for BAC terrain, with SWE of 0.75-1".

* Ridgetop gusts: Southwest winds of 50-60 mph with localized gusts up to 70 mph.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002-003.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ071>073.