textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty northeast to east ridge winds linger through tonight, with chilly breezes for western Nevada valleys. * A slow warming trend will bring back some valley inversions next week, then a weak weather system may bring chances for light showers, mainly along the Sierra mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Brr! It's brisk out there. Admittedly, it's been pretty nice as of late and these moderately colder temperatures can't hold a candle to the deep freeze for the eastern half of the country.

Easterly ridge wind gusts have been well over 50-60 mph for much of the highest terrain today with several reports of wind holds at local ski areas. The winds will persist through much of the afternoon and evening with decreasing speeds into Sunday morning. Backcountry recreation and aviation impacts are expected for much of today, especially for areas along and west of the Sierra crest. Surface breezes in the lower valleys and foothills won't be quite as strong with gusts 15 to 20 mph at most, but the breezes will contribute to the chill.

Plan on weak high pressure for Sunday into Tuesday with a return of light winds and inversions. Another trough approaches the Eastern Pacific by Tuesday, but the Ensembles Clusters are on the struggle bus with the track/timing. Only 23% of the solutions show the trough tracking in across Northern CA, while the others are an array of dry results for the northern Sierra and western NV, including the trough becoming a cutoff low dropping toward SoCal. Blended guidance has a 10-20% chance for precipitation right along the Sierra crest. This is not the snow maker that we're looking for. The ridge resumes residency following this little shortwave trough passage, with no big signals for something more prolific for our latitude. There are a few waves of moisture forecast to sweep into the Pacific Northwest, but the IVT moisture plume probabilities are looking rather dire for the Sierra and Western Nevada. Similarly, the 8-14 day outlooks are also the dry and warm side.

-Edan

AVIATION

* Colder, drier air has brought VFR conditions to most Sierra and Nevada terminals today after the patchy low clouds from this morning. The very dry, cold air will likely limit fog formation (less than 5% chance) at KTRK for tonight into early Sunday.

* Primary concern for aviators will be the strong NE-E FL100 winds 25-35 kts through 06Z Sunday. Easterly surface wind gusts will be limited to around 10-20kts through 03Z Sunday. Localized areas of LLWS and turbulence possible along and west of the Sierra crest.

* Inversions will return Sunday through Tuesday with light surface winds and a dry forecast.

-Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.