textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty to strong winds today and Saturday will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Remain fire aware.

* Winds today and Saturday will also result in dangerous boating conditions, areas of blowing dust, outdoor recreation impacts, and cross winds for high profile vehicles. * Much cooler weather arrives later this weekend with shower and thunderstorm chances north of U.S. Highway 50.

DISCUSSION

The latest model guidance shows a PacNW low continuing to move along the coast of BC today and then into the NW CONUS by tomorrow. With this setup above, a cold and windy weather system continues to impact the CWA today as a cold front moves through the region. Daytime high temperatures are on track to be around 10-15 degrees cooler than those experienced on Thursday. W NV valleys will have highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s range while Sierra communities will be in the in the middle 60s to lower 70s range. A second cold front moves through the region on Saturday which will cool down temperatures even more with daytime highs generally in the 60s and 70s (portions of Mineral County such as Hawthorne may hang on to the lower 80s). Please be prepared for a chilly night on Saturday into early Sunday with low temperatures in 30s and 40s Some Sierra communities will drop near or below the freezing mark as well, so take time to protect any sensitive outdoor plants and vegetation now.

The primary weather threat with this system for the rest of today and tomorrow are the increased winds that have already arrived in the Sierra and Sierra Front. Generally westerly to southwesterly winds through tomorrow expect to gust up to 35-45 mph in lower elevations. These winds may decrease slightly for a few hours Saturday morning, but they will quickly come right back up. Ridge winds gust up to 50-60 mph today, but will creep higher overnight and reach up to almost 80 mph on Saturday. Fire weather concerns as well as impacts to recreation and travel are expected within the region through tomorrow as a result of these winds. Please refer to the Red Flag Warning in W NV as well as the Lake Wind Advisory out for area lakes for more details. Blowing dust is expected in W NV near desert sinks and playas, so use caution if traveling through the region as reduced visibility may occur.

As for precipitation chances for the remainder of today and tomorrow, there is a 15-25% chance for light showers for the Sierra Crest near Tahoe, northern Lassen and Washoe Counties, and in the W NV Basin and Range going through the afternoon. During the evening hours, chances for showers increases to 40-80% near the OR border as the cold front moves closer to the region. These chances will continue into Saturday before lowering to 20-60% on Saturday night when they spread south into the Northern Tahoe Basin and the Reno/Sparks area. Chances for thunder within these showers looks to be around 15-25% with higher end chances closer to the OR border. Not anticipating severe weather at this time, but strong and erratic outflow winds as well as brief heavy rain could be possible if a stronger storm develops. QPF values through tomorrow night range between a trace and up to around 0.3 inches in NE CA. Snow levels on Saturday night drop down to between 6.5-7.5 kft, so higher elevations in NE CA and the Northern Sierra could potentially see a dusting of snow by Sunday morning.

On Sunday, precipitation chances will depart out of the region to the east with winds decreasing as the upper low journeys eastward. Cooler daytime highs are in the forecast on Sunday with W NV and NE CA valleys seeing highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s with Sierra communities in the lower to middle 60s. Dry conditions are expected going into the beginning of July with area high temperatures returning to the 70s and 80s during the work week. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are anticipated for all area TAF sites for the rest of today and tonight. With cold front passages today and tomorrow, winds gust up to around 25-35 kts at area terminals with Sierra ridges gusting up to around 55 kts. While surface winds may decrease briefly early Saturday, mountain top winds increase and will reach up to 60-70 kts through Saturday afternoon. LLWS and mountain wave turbulence is to be expected. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (15-25%) continue within the region before portions near the OR border see an increase to around 40-80% going into the night. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday while coverage drifts south by tomorrow evening which may cause MVFR ceilings. -078

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag conditions continue for western NV today and into Saturday with wind gusts of 30-50 mph and dry fuels. Slight shower chances (15-25%) continue within the region this afternoon with chances increasing near the OR border going into the night with an approaching low. Gusty winds may slightly decrease late tonight into early Saturday morning. Winds can briefly exceed 50 mph Saturday as a low pressure system passes across northern Nevada. More shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany the system Saturday, but wetting rains will be limited or non-existant.

The Tahoe Basin and eastern Sierra in Mono County will have similar winds of 30-50 mph and up to 80 mph over ridges. However, fuels have not been reported to be critically dry, though fire may quickly spread in pockets of dry fuels.

Cooler temperatures and light winds arrive Sunday, but dry and warm weather quickly returns Monday. Brong/078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420.

Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001>004.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ071>073.