textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures cooling to near average for the remainder of the holiday weekend and early next week.

* Dry conditions prevail into the start of December, except for a few light snow showers near the Oregon border and northwest NV Sunday morning. * Another cold front brings additional cooling, breezy winds, and light showers around the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Although the Sierra ridges are 5-10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday, the inversion that persisted yesterday in valley floors around Reno and west central NV will be weaker, resulting in a better chance of topping 60 degrees this afternoon.

This warmup will be short lived as today's flat ridge retreats to the CA coast tonight and Saturday, leading to a return of valley inversions with highs dipping to the lower-mid 50s across western NV. Then a weak slider-type low drops into the Great Basin on Sunday, leading to an increase in north and northeast breezes (gusts up to 20 mph), stronger Sierra ridge top winds (gusts 40-60 mph) and further cooling to around 50 degrees. Through the past week we have been seeing varied storm tracks, but the most recent consensus keeps the majority of the region dry, except for about a 10-20% chance of stray snow showers/flurries with no meaningful accumulations near the OR border and scraping across northern/eastern Pershing County Sunday morning.

For next week, the blocking ridge remains off the west coast, keeping CA/NV in a cooler trough pattern with generally light winds and valley inversions. One exception is a brief warm-up on Tuesday ahead of a weak slider-type low dropping in from the north, with increasing west winds for Sierra ridges.

This low is then projected to push a cold front through Tuesday night-Wednesday with increasing north and northeast breezes for lower elevations and stronger ridge top gusts (30-50% chance of 50+ mph). The magnitude of these winds will again be dependent on the eventual track of this low, as the medium range ensembles range from a drier brush-by scenario similar to this weekend's system, to a more southerly track that would bring increased snow shower chances to the eastern Sierra and parts of western NV. Given the limited available moisture with the inland trajectory of this low, precipitation/snow amounts would remain on the lighter side, with only a 10-20% chance of snowfall exceeding 1" in the eastern Sierra/Tahoe basin and less than 10% chance for any accumulating snow in lower elevations early Wednesday. MJD

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions and light breezes prevail through much of Saturday with high pressure overhead retreating to the west coast. Areas of cirrus cloud cover will limit the potential for patchy FZFG at KTRK to less than 20% for the next couple of mornings.

FL100/ridge top winds increase from the west with gusts 35-50 kt Saturday afternoon-night, leading to periods of mountain wave turbulence for the main terminals, then shift to northeast with similar speeds on Sunday. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.