textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue today for northeast CA and northwest NV, with possible fire, aviation, and recreational impacts. * Seasonal temperatures and mostly dry conditions across the area this weekend

* Above average temperatures return by the start of next week, with typical afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION

* After an active Friday weather-wise, today will have far less coverage of showers and storms. There remains a slight 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms, stretching from northeast CA eastward through northern Washoe into northern Pershing County. The main culprit is the larger scale trough still over the area that is interacting with daytime heating. The primary concerns will be locally heavy rain, small hail, wind gusts up to 40 mph. Per SPC fire weather outlooks, there still exists a 10% chance for dry storms with new lightning ignitions outside of the main storm cores. * The aforementioned trough will eventually exit the region by Sunday. This will keep us with near average temperatures throughout the area this weekend. Afternoon reading in western NV valleys will end up in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, while the Sierra communities will be in the mid-70s to low 80s. For reference, average highs for western NV are near 90 degree and near 80 degrees in the Sierra communities. * By Monday into next week, a large scale high pressure starts to setup and build over the southwest US. This will allow for temperatures to increase back above seasonal normals by Monday all the way through into Friday. This will reintroduce widespread moderate HeatRisk for western NV and lower valleys. So while hot temperatures are in store for next week, at least it's not looking like an intensive heat wave. By Friday onward, ensembles are showing another possible ridge breakdown, with increasing winds and low precipitation chances. -McKellar

AVIATION

* VFR conditions at all western NV and eastern Sierra terminals on Saturday and Sunday.

* Also, expect typical west winds in the afternoon to early evening with sustained 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. -McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.