textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Generally a warming and drying trend this weekend.

* A 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms remain through the weekend for Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties.

* Warming to near normal for next week, with afternoon westerly breezes. Showers or thunderstorms may return late next week.

DISCUSSION

* While much of the moisture the region has dealt with the past several days is being scoured out of the region, it's still present across southern and eastern Nevada. For western Nevada, the 12Z KREV sounding still indicated PWATs of 0.71". The atmosphere is certainly more stable, but there is just enough moisture present to keep 10-20% chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday across Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties. The HREF agrees with this as well, even showing a bit more coverage Sunday as compared to today, due to increased surface heating.

* A shortwave traversing through the Pacific northwest will bring a slight uptick in our typical afternoon westerly Zephyr breezes on Monday, primarily in far northeastern California and northwestern Nevada, closer to the Oregon border. There's a 40% chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon. While not indicative of widespread critical fire weather, it's certainly eyebrow raising given recent wildfires and will need to be monitored.

* A high pressure center expands westward through the week bringing warmer temperatures, with highs returning to the 90s in lower elevation valleys. Increasing instability, along with moisture sneaking in under the ridge will bring low end chances (10-20%) for storms the middle into the end of the week. A few ensemble members are more aggressive with the moisture surge, so there is a 5% chance for more expansive shower and thunderstorm coverage.

* The other item to keep an eye on is a trough late next week off the northern CA coast, which deepens southwest flow over the region. The probability for wind gusts exceeding 30 mph is increasing for late week into next weekend, which may bring fire weather concerns.

-Dawn

AVIATION

* Widespread VFR conditions this weekend, outside of low end (10- 20%) chances for showers or thunderstorms across Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties from approximately 21z-02z. Elsewhere, few to scattered mid-high level clouds, with most development in the afternoons.

* Winds will be light and variable, turning westerly with peak gusts at terminal sites reaching 10-20 kts in the afternoon, in absence of any thunderstorm outflow winds. An uptick in WSW winds should be expected Monday afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 15- 25 kts. -Dawn

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.