textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather prevails through most of the week with warmer than normal daytime temperatures.

* Periods of increased breezes will pose minor impacts to aviation and recreation this evening through Monday evening.

* A wetter and windier pattern continues to be delayed. Could see increased winds as early as Friday, with precipitation moving in Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Visible satellite imagery shows a band of high clouds moving through the region this afternoon. This band is associated with a shortwave trough in the PacNW. The approach of another shortwave trough right behind it will slightly tighten the pressure gradient this afternoon. Thus, expect an increase in ridgetop southwesterly gusts up to 45 mph and in northeast California and northern Washoe county 15-30 mph. Gusts in the rest of the area should remain in the 10-20 mph range. Winds continue to be elevated overnight in the ridgetops. Tomorrow with the actual passage of the trough and its associated dry cold front winds will be slightly stronger, about 5 mph higher than today, especially for northeast California tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

As the upper trough quickly moves away, a high amplitude upper level ridge will settle in the region leading to 5 to 10 degrees above normal temperatures through the rest of the work week. This will be accompanied by lighter winds and mostly clear skies too. While the ridge dominates the pattern over the western US, a broad upper level trough over the northern Pacific will split into two systems. The new closed upper low sinks towards SoCal moving towards Arizona/New Mexico this weekend.

The development of these systems have brought uncertainty in the scenarios for this weekend as the models struggle to figure out the final solution. They keep pushing the precipitation for our area later into the weekend and early next week. Ensemble models only have very few members showing any kind of precipitation Thursday and Friday, with an uptick by Saturday and the main consensus (for now) by Sunday into Monday. Probability-wise our chances for precipitation Thursday are below 5%, with Friday/Saturday between 5-25%, and Sunday 40%+ for the Sierra Front and the California-side of our area. Winds are also expected to increase this weekend, especially over area mountains. Anyway, this is likely to change as you have seen over the past several days.

-HC

AVIATION

KRNO: VFR conditions with light winds today, gusts increase up to 15 kts Monday between 21-02Z. Valley inversions continue each morning, reducing slantwise visibilities.

Elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals with light winds. Ridgetop gusts of 30-40 kts this afternoon and Monday. Minor turbulence and LLWS north of Lake Tahoe tonight through tomorrow morning between 06-18Z.

-Giralte/HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.