textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy and cooler conditions today behind the first of two cold fronts for this weekend. * A secondary, stronger cold front arrives Sunday bringing gusty northerly winds, even colder temperatures and valley rain and foothill/mountain snow showers mid to late Sunday.

* Freezing to near freezing temperatures Monday morning give way to warmer and drier conditions for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Today: Current temperatures are already running about 8-10 degrees cooler than yesterday and will feel even cooler with the brisk northerly winds in place. Ridge and foothill wind gusts will be in the 30 to 45 mph range through the afternoon. Surface, valley winds won't be quite as burly, but plan on gusts 20 mph to 35 mph in the wake of the cold front this afternoon and evening.

Sunday:

* Winds - Stronger cold front arrives with another noticeable drop (10-15 degrees) in temperatures and strong winds. Winds gradually increase through the day on Sunday, with northerly gusts switching to northeasterly and widespread 40-70% chances of gusts 40+ mph Sunday night. Mono, Alpine and Mineral counties will experience the strongest winds where gusts may reach 45+ mph. Plan on impacts like reduced visibility due to blowing dust, hazardous crosswinds for vehicles, bumpy aviation conditions and hazardous boating on area lakes. See the various Lake Wind Advisories and Wind Advisory for details.

* Temperatures - Sierra communities will climb into the 50s to near 60 and northeastern CA and western NV will reside in the upper 50s to low 60s. As we dive into Sunday night and early Monday morning, plan on widespread freezing temperatures for the Sierra valleys. There is a non-zero chance that colder valleys in western Nevada may drop near to below freezing by Monday morning. Take precautions to protect sensitive plants. The latest blended guidance keeps temperatures in Reno, Carson City and Minden areas in the 30s with a 15-20% chance of dropping below the freezing mark.

* Precipitation - Recent high resolution simulations have trended toward a more robust precipitation signal that is also farther west than previous model runs. Showers are projected to spread across the Basin and Range (20-30% chances) before sunrise Sunday and then track southwestward toward Reno/I80 corridor (15%/20%) between 10a-noon, and then into Mono, Alpine and Mineral counties (30-50%) from noon-3p. For the most part, the showers will be light, but we could see some snow for areas above 5000 feet as the front barrels through the area.

Monday: The warming and drying trend continues its scheduled programming for mid-May with 80s across western Nevada and upper 70s to 80s for northeastern CA into the Sierra by midweek.

Spoiler alert: Ensemble cluster projections are a mixed bag looking ahead to next weekend for Memorial Day. Looks like an even split for simulations between continued high pressure (leaning to warmer/drier) or a trough (trend to wet/cool). Have outdoor plans? Stay tuned for updates and be sure to have a backup (if the weather stinks) plan.

-Edan

AVIATION

* Brisk, northerly winds with gusts up to 25 kts persist today with VFR conditions.

* Winds continue on Sunday with FL100 winds increasing to 25-40kts from Sun 9z to Mon 12z. Wind direction will shift from west, southwest early Sun to north, northeast Mon 0z-Mon 12z. Surface wind gusts will climb up to 45 kts, particularly near KHTH. Areas of blowing dust may result in visibility reductions near KNFL, KLOL, KHTH.

* Rain shower chances will be highest (25-50%) east of KLOL-KNFL and also at KMMH with snow chances above 5000 feet possible Sunday morning and afternoon. -Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ003.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ001.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Sunday NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ071.

Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday CAZ072.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ073.