textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Above average temperatures, and widespread moderate HeatRisk are expected through Thursday for western NV, with typical afternoon breezes prevailing.

* Increasing fire weather concerns for Friday & Saturday due to strong and gusty winds combining with low humidity.

* Much cooler over the weekend with light showers possible. Near freezing low temperatures possible for Sierra valleys.

DISCUSSION

Highs this afternoon will heat into the upper 90s for W.Nevada valleys with Sierra valleys reaching the mid-80s. Expect widespread moderate HeatRisk across much of W.Nevada, along with isolated areas of Major HeatRisk in Basin and Range valleys where temperatures could touch 100 degrees. Skies will remain mostly clear, aside from some afternoon cumulus development which could support a 10-15% chance of a few pop-up showers and even an isolated thunderstorm across Mineral County this afternoon.

Highs will gradually cool by 2-3 degrees daily through Thursday, followed by a more significant drop over the weekend as a series of potent cold fronts moves through the region. Typical afternoon zephyr winds will continue through Wednesday, with gusts increasing to 20-25 mph by late afternoon and early evening.

Winds will continue to intensify Friday-Saturday, with a 40-50% chance of gusts reaching 40 mph, mainly from along Highway 395 eastward into the Nevada Basin and Range. The main frontal passage arrives Saturday, which is expected to increase sustained winds near 20-30 mph in addition to gusts of 30-40 mph. Critical fire weather conditions are a growing concern for Friday and Saturday. See the Fire Discussion below for additional details.

In addition to fire weather concerns, these winds could disrupt outdoor recreation, create hazardous boating conditions, and impact road and aviation travel. High profile vehicles could be impacted by strong crosswinds, and blowing dust may reduce visibility in areas downwind of desert sinks.

Precipitation chances remains limited with this front with 20-50% chance of light showers Friday/Saturday with only a 10-30% chance of wetting rains (0.1") northward of Susanville-Gerlach to the Oregon border. In addition, isolated thunderstorm chances of 10-15% are possible for the Surprise Valley and far N.Washoe county.

A significant cool down is expected in the wake of the cold front as high temperatures fall to 10-20 degrees below late June averages. This will translate to highs in the mid and upper 70s for W.Nevada with 60s for the Sierra. Sierra valleys could see 40-50% odds of overnight lows falling below freezing. Even Carson Valley communities could see a 10-15% chance hitting the freezing. Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon with typical westerly afternoon/evening gusts of 20-25 knots. A few buildups over the high terrain each afternoon, but chances for showers and storms are less than 5% outside of 10-15% chances this afternoon at KHTH.

The warmest temperatures of the week are expected this afternoon with highs reaching the upper 90s for W.Nevada terminals which may yield density altitude impacts today. Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and dry conditions will persist through Thursday. Today is expected to be the hottest day, with highs reaching the upper 90s in W.Nevada valleys. Afternoon relative humidity will drop into the teens and single digits, with poor overnight recovery below 30% across W.Nevada mid-slopes and Basin and Range valleys.

The primary fire weather concern is a critical pattern developing this weekend from a series of strong cold fronts expected to move through on Friday and Saturday. Confidence is increasing for critical fire weather conditions due to the strong winds and low humidity across portions of W.Nevada.

Winds will remain typical through Wednesday, with afternoon westerly gusts around 20-25 mph. Gusts increase to 25-30 mph on Thursday, then strengthen further Friday and Saturday as the front moves through. Isolated critical conditions may develop as early as Thursday afternoon, but the greatest concern is Friday and Saturday, especially from US-395 eastward where dry conditions could combine with gusts of 30-40+ mph.

In addition, Saturdays winds are showing signals for a strong sustained wind component of up to 20-30 mph as the front sweeps through the region. Any new ignitions or lightning holdovers could rapidly spread with these expected wind speeds. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.