textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are likely in NE CA and northwest NV near the OR border this afternoon.

* Warmer and generally dry conditions are expected through Thursday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. * Still expecting increased winds and cooler temperatures return towards the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

The upper level low that was affecting our area yesterday continues its northeastward trajectory towards eastern Idaho. Satellite imagery continues to show cloud cover associated with it over our area early this morning. A couple of showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm or two could be possible in areas north of I-80, especially over the Surprise Valley, Lassen, northern Washoe and northern Pershing counties late this afternoon and early evening per the HREF and RRFS. Some stray light showers may be possible near the Quad Counties area, and Lake Tahoe, but chances are around 5% or less.

As weak ridging develops to our west, our afternoon temperatures will try to increase a degree or two compared to yesterday. So, valley locations will be in the mid-80s, and Sierra communities in the mid-70s. Temperatures will continue to climb up through Thursday with afternoon highs peaking to the upper 80s valleys, and upper 70s for Sierra communities. These temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above average.

By Thursday, another upper level trough and its associated cold front in the Northern Pacific starts to swing into the PacNW. This will lead to slightly stronger afternoon winds from the west and southwest as the surface pressure gradient tightens. By Friday, the first wave plunges through the PacNW. This potentially leads to the strongest winds of the week. Deterministic and ensemble models are showing a deeper trough with stronger winds, so the trend is going up. Currently looking at gusts of 30-40 mph Friday afternoon with a 20-60% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph, especially over wind prone locations along the US-395 corridor. Elevated winds will continue through the weekend as another weaker wave appears to move through the region. However, the winds are not as strong at the moment. The late week and weekend systems appear dry for northern NV and CA... although I wouldn't be surprised of light rain in areas near the OR border.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours. Skies will slowly clear out through the day. KTRK has less than a 10% chance for FG to develop between 11-15Z this morning, better chances tomorrow morning with clearer skies. A 15% of light rain chances remain near KSVE and northward.

Winds will be generally from the west and northwest in the afternoon with gusts up to 12 kts. Otherwise, winds will be relatively light and VRB.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.