textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A dry pattern continues through the end of the week with enhanced breezes today, otherwise afternoon zephyr breezes prevail.

* Temperatures warm through the weekend, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk by Friday.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the current upper air pattern shows the CWA with a northwesterly flow aloft being between an upper trough in the Rockies and high pressure in the Eastern Pacific this morning. Going through the day, model guidance has the high moving toward the west coast as a ridge feature develops. This setup allows for dry conditions to prevail underneath sunny skies today across the region. With better exposure to the sun today compared to yesterday, daytime high temperatures will be warmer today with the W NV and NE CA valleys being in the middle to upper 80s range and the Sierra communities being in the upper 70s to lower 80s range. Afternoon breezes gusting up to around 20-25 mph out of the northwest to north are also in the forecast. Tonight's low temperatures expect to be in the 40s and 50s and slightly warmer than those experienced Tuesday night.

Going through the remainder of the week and into weekend, the ridge continues to build and moves more over the western CONUS by the weekend. At the beginning of next week, forecast guidance then projects a trough feature moving through AK and causing the ridge to breakdown. This evolution in the upper air pattern will allow for the dry conditions to continue in the region as well as temperatures to rise to above seasonal normals on Thursday and to well above June normals by Friday through the beginning of next week. Daily high temperatures from Friday to at least Tuesday are currently forecast to be in the 90s for NE CA and W NV valleys and in the 80s for the Sierra communities. With this streak of very warm temperatures, the latest NWS HeatRisk product shows widespread Minor to Moderate HeatRisk especially in the valleys on Friday through Tuesday. Please keep this in mind if you have outdoor plans through the weekend and into early next week, especially if you are sensitive to heat. Lakes, rivers, and streams are still running cold, so please refrain from entering into them to cool down as hypothermia could set in quickly. Long term model guidance shows potential for the pattern to change in the possibly by the middle or end of next week, but there is good uncertainty this far out. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast today and tonight across the region. Afternoon breezes expect to gust up to around 20-25 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMMH with lesser winds seen for the rest of the TAF sites. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the rest of the week allowing for potential density altitude impacts by the weekend as temperatures warm to 10-15 degrees above June normals. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.