textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong wind gusts are expected by the late morning through the evening due to a dry cold front, leading to elevated fire weather concerns.

* A system will bring cooler temperatures with highs dropping between 5 to 10 degrees below average by Sunday and Monday.

* There is a chance for precipitation in western NV and the eastern Sierra Sunday night into Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

A dry cold front is still poised to move through the region today. Winds as of midnight are gusting between 40-45 mph on the ridges, and will continue to increase into the morning. Strong southwest winds will affect the area through the evening, with ridgetop gusts between 65-75 mph. Meanwhile, wind gusts between 30-40 mph will be common for most locations north of US-50 in western NV, as well as the eastern Sierra from Plumas County south through the Tahoe Basin. Wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. For that reason, Lake Wind Advisories are in effect for several area lakes, including Tahoe and Pyramid. Also, the combination of gusty winds and low humidity will create critical fire-weather concerns this afternoon and evening; see the Fire Weather Discussion below for details. Finally, smoke from the Dome Fire SW of Yosemite may result in areas of smoke and haze in Mono County throughout the day.

Ensembles and deterministic model runs all show a trough digging along the west coast on Sunday. This then forms into an upper low that moves into southern NV by late Monday. Latest blended guidance has increased precipitation chances compared to prior runs. Right now, we have a 20-40% chance of light precipitation in western NV and the eastern Sierra Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Snow levels with this colder low will drop to around 8,500 feet, with little to no snow accumulation expected. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will drop across the region, with high temperatures between 5 to 10 degrees below average. Also, Sierra valleys on Monday and Tuesday morning have likely chances for below freezing temperatures.

Ensembles indicate a ridge pattern moving in by the middle of next week. This will introduce a warming trend, with temperatures back above average by Wednesday. Dry weather looks to persist Tuesday through the end of the 7-day forecast period next Friday. -McKellar

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will continue to strengthen across the northern Sierra through the morning, with FL100 winds of 40-45kts resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS through at least 18Z this morning.

Eastern Sierra and western NV terminals will have increasing W-SW winds sustained between 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. The strongest winds are expected between 18Z to 03Z.

Areas of blowing dust are possible this afternoon for KNFL and KLOL, with visibilities possible down to 6SM. -McKellar

FIRE WEATHER

Strong winds are expected this afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Southwest gusts of 30 to 40 mph are most likely north of US-50, while wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum RH will increase slightly today, particularly across NE California and far N.Washoe County where the Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled due to these higher RH, but W.Nevada areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings due lower RH expected. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002>004.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-421.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073.