textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures will remain well above seasonal averages throughout the week with daily records likely to be challenged.

* Increasing afternoon winds Monday through Wednesday will create choppy lake conditions and potential travel impacts.

* Dry and warm conditions are expected to persist until a potential pattern shift arrives near the end of the month.

DISCUSSION

The synoptic pattern remains dominated by high-amplitude ridging centered over the West, though current visible satellite imagery shows high-level cloud debris from an offshore moisture plume filtering over the Sierra and western Nevada. Despite this cloud cover, the airmass remains unseasonably warm. Heating is expected to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures climbing 15-25 degrees above late-March norms. In the lower valleys of western Nevada, highs will reach into the 80s. Sierra valleys will see unseasonably warm highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while northeast California valleys will peak in the mid to upper 70s. These values will put daily records at risk through the middle of the week.

As the ridge axis shifts eastward, the pressure gradient will tighten in response to a trough clipping the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced vertical mixing will facilitate the transfer of 700 hPa momentum to the surface each afternoon Monday through Wednesday, yielding gusts in the 25-35 mph range mainly north of US-50, with portions of northern Pershing and Washoe counties hitting 35-45 mph, Tuesday afternoon. These winds will be especially impactful for area lakes, creating choppy conditions.

Looking toward the end of the month, the offshore moisture plume visible on satellite will be the feature to watch for a potential pattern break around March 30th or 31st. While there is a signal for the ridge to finally erode and allow for cooler, wetter weather, confidence remains low. High-pressure blocks of this magnitude often linger longer than numerical weather prediction guidance suggests. For now, the forecast stays dry and unseasonably warm through next weekend, with only a slight and brief cooling trend expected on Thursday.

-Johnston

AVIATION

VFR conditions will hold for all Sierra and western Nevada terminals through the next 48 hours. While high-level cloud debris will drift through, ceilings will remain well above 15000 ft MSL with no visibility concerns.

A standard afternoon breeze is expected today with westerly gusts 18-22kt, settling after sunset. Surface winds ramp up Monday through Wednesday, with widespread afternoon gusts of 25-30kt as stronger winds aloft mix down to the valley floors.

Expect mechanical turbulence and localized LLWS along the lee side of the Sierra, particularly for KRNO each afternoon Monday through Wednesday (18Z-03Z).

Unseasonably warm temperatures will create density altitude issues, especially from 18Z-03Z each afternoon. Expect degraded aircraft performance during the heat of the day.

-Johnston

CLIMATE

* Monthly record set at Reno:

- Reno, NV: New record of 88F. The old monthly record was 86F on 3/18/2026

* Monthly record set at South Lake Tahoe:

- South Lake Tahoe, CA: New record of 76F. The old monthly record was 71F on 3/30/2015

New daily record high temperatures and the previous daily record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 3/17 82F (old 78F in 2007) 69F (old 65F in 2007) 3/18 86F (old 77F in 1947) 76F (old 63F in 2004) 3/19 85F (old 77F in 1997) 72F (old 65F in 2015) 3/20 88F (old 81F in 2004) 72F (old 68F in 1997) 3/21 81F (old 80F in 2004) 70F (old 68F in 1997) 3/22 77F - 2004 65F - 2004 3/23 77F - 202266F - 2022 3/24 80F - 202265F - 2022 3/25 81F - 202267F - 2022

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New daily record warmest low temperatures and the previous daily record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 3/18 48F - 1904 37F - 2021 3/19 46F - 2013 38F - 2013 3/20 47F - 2013 35F - 2013 3/21 50F (old 46F in 2015) 38F - 1972 3/22 50F - 201240F - 2012 3/23 46F - 200040F - 1998 3/24 45F - 200640F - 1986 3/25 52F - 189338F - 2008

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REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.