textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably mild through Saturday with light winds and valley inversions persisting. High flows continue on streams/rivers.

* Showers chances this weekend with 15-30% chances for thunderstorms across NE California/NW Nevada on Saturday.

* Shower chances through Monday, but decreasing T-storm chances. Unsettled weather continues mid-week with a series of spring- like systems bringing chances of rain and mountain snow showers.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures will feel more like early May than late February through Saturday as high temperatures warm to 10-15F above average. This equates to highs in the upper 60s to around 70 for warmer W.Nevada valleys and mid to upper 50s for Sierra valleys.

The weather pattern into next week will feel rather spring-like as a series of weaker low pressure systems sweep through the region. The first of these on Saturday will provide increased chances for showers and 15-30% chance of thunderstorms mainly northward of I-80 into Lassen and far northern Washoe County. Snow levels will be quite high (>9500') so it will mainly be rain for all elevations outside of small hail or pellet showers in stronger shower or thunderstorm cells.

Sierra ridgetops will also become gusty through Sunday with afternoon gusts around 60+ mph. Expect continued light shower chances through Monday with snow levels lowering to 7500-8500' by Sunday, then 6000-7000' by Monday. Overall snowfall potential looks limited during this timeframe with up to 3 inches along the Sierra crest.

After a lull on Tuesday, an unsettled pattern will resume around the middle of next week as another series of spring-like lows drift through the region. Additional chances for rain and mountain showers will be possible with each passage along with cooler, but seasonable temperatures. Fuentes.

AVIATION

20% chance for FZFG at KTRK but increasing mid-level clouds may keep coverage patchy and shallow. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances return on Saturday with an incoming low pressure system. Expect 10-15% chances of isolated thunderstorms for KTRK, KTVL, KRNO, KCXP, and KMEV. Higher chances expected north across NE California with 30% chance at KSVE. Winds aloft (FL100 winds 30-35 kts). Fuentes

AVALANCHE

Weather impacts to avalanche center terrain will be dominated by continued warm temperatures through Saturday, followed by a windy, showery period late Saturday through Monday with limited high- elevation snowfall.

* Snow Levels/SLR/SWE: Snow levels remain very high through Saturday evening (9500-10000 ft), then fall to around 6500-7500 ft Sunday night into Monday. Probabilities of at least 1 inch of snowfall above 8000 ft are around 10-20% in the Tahoe Basin, and 30-40% chance through Alpine and Mono County during this time period, with SLRs on the order of 5:1 increasing to 8-10:1 by Monday morning. Overall SWE contributions remain modest, roughly 0.10-0.30 inches along the Sierra crest through Monday.

* Winds: Southwest ridgetop winds increase sharply late Saturday morning through Saturday evening, with gusts 50-60 mph likely. Winds remain breezy into Sunday, gradually easing Monday.

* Lightning: Saturday afternoon/evening carries a 15-20% chance of thunderstorm Saturday afternoon, with a 10-15% through Alpine County and less than <5% along the Mono County crest. Activity then transitions to more widespread but generally light/scattered showers Sunday into Monday. Fuentes

HYDROLOGY

All rivers and streams in the area have crested, but flows remain elevated and may respond quickly to continued snowmelt with warm temperatures and any weekend showers/thunderstorms, especially smaller creeks and steams.

Use extra caution near rivers and creeks. Prolonged high flows may lead to unstable banks and erosion.

No new flooding is forecast, check for river forecasts and observations at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

-TB

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.