textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Near-record high temperatures with dry conditions through this afternoon, accompanied by localized wildfire smoke.

* A weak low-pressure system brings isolated light shower chances tonight into Monday afternoon.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist through late week, with a cooling trend and precipitation chances arriving by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

The ridging feature that is offering us the warm temperatures today is breaking down as a trough swings through today through late Monday. So, we will see near-record high temperatures with lower valleys in the upper 80s to low 90s, while Sierra valleys in the mid 70s to low 80s for today, with cloud cover filtering overhead. Current NBM probabilities show an over 80% chance for the Reno-Tahoe International Airport to tie the October 4th record of 89 degrees. And while this weak trough will offer clouds and showers for Monday, we will continue to see above average temperatures through the majority of this week. Smoke and haze from various fires around the area may also linger, so check airnow.gov for the latest air quality updates.

Shower chances will increase with this weak trough for Monday, with a 15-30% chance for showers across the Sierra, with lower 10-15% chances for the Sierra Front and the Basin and Range. While we cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or embedded lightning in any given shower, we are not expecting severe weather for Monday. In fact, we have built quite a dry layer at the surface, which would need to be sufficiently moistened to even get raindrops to reach the ground. Wind gusts could reach 20-30 mph Monday afternoon and evening with this system.

The upper ridge will rebound after the trough exits early Tuesday morning, returning us to our warming trend of around 10 degrees above average through the end of the week. Then, for the Friday in tot he weekend time frame, a colder trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest, bringing a stark cooling pattern with shower chances and increased winds. Temperatures will return to seasonal averages, with recent guidance suggesting shower chances of around 10-20% for the weekend. Of course, we will iron out details on this as we draw nearer to the holiday weekend. HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR conditions today with some smoke and haze lingering across the area, limiting slantwise visibility for some area terminals. Afternoon gusts 15-20 mph today.

* A weak system moves through the region late tonight into Monday bringing up to around 20% chances for light showers to NE CA, the Sierra, and the Sierra Front. -MRC/HRICH

CLIMATE

Near record high temperatures and near record warmest low temperatures are forecast at both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL) for the beginning of this week.

Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/4 89F (1987) 82F (1988) 10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1991) 10/6 88F (1980,1991,1996,2004) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014)

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Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/4 54F (2024) 45F (2015) 10/5 52F (1947,1999,2024) 39F (2024) 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (2021,2024) 43F (2021)

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.