textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal by mid to late week.

* Warming temperatures will support afternoon cumulus buildups near the Sierra, with low-end thunder chances Thursday into the weekend.

* Afternoon west breezes continue this week, with somewhat stronger breezes possible by Memorial Day into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Chances to hit 90 in W NV and 80 in the Tahoe Basin this weekend has quickly dropped to near zero as a shortwave impacts the area. More details on that in subsequent paragraphs. For now, highs will be 5-10 degrees above average with afternoon temps topping out in the mid 80s and 70s for valleys and higher elevations, respectively. Typical west winds and dry conditions will prevail for much of the area through at least Friday.

For the Sierra and Sierra Front, we're seeing chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. Surface heating will allow for cumulus buildups along the higher terrain today, continuing through Friday. Thursday, those buildups will mature into shower chances, mainly south of the Tahoe Basin through Mono county. Thunderstorm chances remain below 5% and CAPE values barely reach 50 J/kg. Some precip may fall out of the sky with those juicier clouds (model soundings do show inverted-V profiles, though), but any accumulations will be light. Friday looks to be more impactful with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances expanding into the Tahoe Basin and the Sierra Front. CAPE values increase to 100-200 J/kg, with PWATs increasing to 0.5-0.6". Isolated shower chances with the occasional lightning strike may bring impacts to recreation. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Model agreement remains mixed as we look towards the weekend; they agree on a shortwave, but not necessarily the placement nor the timing of said shortwave. Additionally, the models are having difficulty resolving just how deep the shortwave may get. This could bring additional impacts for the holiday weekend, including gustier winds and isolated thunderstorms. Check back here for more concrete details as we get closer.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the week with no significant visibility or precipitation impacts at the main terminals. Winds remain typical for late May, with afternoon west to southwest breezes most days. Peak gusts will generally remain around 15-25 kt.

Afternoon cumulus buildups are possible near the Sierra crest west of MMH Wednesday, with low-end isolated shower or thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend near the Sierra, northeast California, and far western Nevada. Impacts will be limited to isolated mountain obscurations and possible gusty, erratic winds.

-Johnston/Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.