textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions will persist through the rest of the week as high pressure builds in the area.

* A slow, gradual warming trend into this weekend will bring above average temperatures by Saturday.

* A weak system on Sunday may bring breezy winds and precipitation chances to NE CA and N NV, but confidence remains low.

DISCUSSION

According to the latest RAP upper air analysis, a ridge continues to build over the W CONUS with a weak disturbance traveling through the flow over N CA. Forecast guidance shows this pattern more or less continuing through the rest of the week allowing for the dry conditions and light to persist. Models are showing a decent amount of moisture staying within the upper levels along with these daily weak disturbances, which will allow for some high cloud cover in the skies each day. However, this does not expect to interrupt the current warming trend within the region. The latest NBM probabilities begin to show a 30-40% chance for daytime highs to reach 60 degrees or above in the lower valleys on Friday that increase to around 50-80% by Saturday. Sierra communities look to warm to between the middle 40s and the middle 50s by the weekend as well. Overnight temperatures also increase slightly with forecast lows forecast in the 20s and 30s across the region for the weekend.

At the beginning of next week, ensemble guidance shows a change in the upper air pattern with a shortwave trough passing through the region on Sunday into early Monday. This will allow for a cold front to pass through at the surface which will interrupt the warming trend. While temperatures come down slightly by a few degrees on Sunday and again on Monday, daytime highs expect to still be above normals for the beginning of February. The front will also cause Sierra ridge winds to pick up on Sunday with gusts up to around 40 mph. As for precipitation chances: light shower cannot be completely ruled out in NE CA and N CA for late Sunday, but there still is low confidence in them occurring. The chances have diminished a bit being between ~5-15% at best with the higher end chances being in the highest elevations. By late Monday going through midweek, long-term guidance projects another high pressure ridge building causing more dry weather along with another warming trend. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions and relatively light winds persist at all area TAF sites today. High pressure build through the rest of the week allowing for dry conditions though there may be some high cloud coverage in the region going into the weekend. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.