textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal and areas of Moderate HeatRisk across warmer lower valleys.

* Lighter breezes return today, then southwest to west breezes increase Friday with brief elevated fire concerns, then the peak winds and fire concerns are expected Saturday.

* Some cooling returns this weekend, with temperatures near or slightly below early June averages Sunday through much of next week. Gusty winds and shower chances may also return next week.

DISCUSSION

Warm and Dry Through Friday:

* Low-amplitude ridging over CA/NV will maintain a warm and very dry air mass through Friday. Highs will generally reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for western NV valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s for Sierra communities. Friday remains the warmest day, with mid 90s along much of the US-95 corridor, supporting a greater extent of Moderate HeatRisk across west-central NV.

Lighter Winds Today, then Increasing Winds Friday:

* We'll be in between weather systems today, with a lighter zonal flow supporting typical afternoon W-NW breezes gusts 25 mph or less. The next storm approaching the Pacific NW coast will bring similar wind speeds as Wednesday, with afternoon gusts of 25-35 mph for much of the region. These winds will bring minor impacts for recreation and aviation Friday afternoon.

Stronger Winds Saturday with Cooling Trend This Weekend:

* The main Pacific storm moves into the Pacific NW and northern CA/NV Saturday, bringing stronger SW-W wind gusts of 35-40 mph, with locally higher gusts in wind-prone corridors along US-395/I-580, US-95, and the eastern Sierra. These winds will produce more notable impacts for recreation and travel compared to Friday. Temperatures will cool by about 5-10 degrees on Saturday and drop further to early June averages Sunday (near 80 for lower elevations and near 70 for Sierra communities) with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend.

Cooler with Shower Chances and Periods of Gusty Winds Next Week:

* For early-mid next week, another Pacific storm may move inland and maintain near to slightly cooler than average temperatures. Depending on the eventual storm track which appears to be slower than the Saturday storm, we could again see periods of gusty winds (30+ mph) and increased shower chances from Monday afternoon through Wednesday. The latest ensemble guidance is leaning a bit cooler and wetter especially for areas near and north of I-80, although confidence remains on the lower side. Overall chances for measurable rain range from 15-30% for northeast CA/northwest NV and the Tahoe region, with 5-15% chances across the remainder of western NV and Mono County. MJD

AVIATION

* VFR conditions prevail with no meaningful CIG/VIS restrictions expected through the next few days. Only exception is a low 20-30% chance for a return of patchy shallow fog around KTRK early Friday morning.

* Winds ease today at the main terminals (gusts mainly below 20 kt, except a short period of 20-25 kt at KMMH), then increase again Friday afternoon with gusts near 25 kt at most sites (except brief gusts up to 30 kt at KRNO).

* Saturday remains the higher-impact aviation period, with widespread southwest-west gusts of 25-35 kt at the main terminals and FL100 gusts of 40-50 kt. Expect increased areas of turbulence, crosswind concerns, and periods of LLWS near and east of the Sierra.

MJD

FIRE WEATHER

* Recent and upcoming warm days through Friday with low afternoon humidity (10% or below most days) and limited overnight recovery (30-50%) will continue to dry out grass and brush-type vegetation, especially across lower elevations of western NV.

* Breezy winds with SW-W gusts of 25-35 mph return Friday afternoon, with localized elevated fire weather concerns in areas where drier vegetation is present. A few small fires occurred on Wednesday in western NV with similar winds, but they were quickly extinguished.

* Saturday remains the primary concern as the strongest winds arrive after several days of drying. Southwest-west gusts over 35 mph are likely (>70%) across much of western NV and portions of eastern CA, with minimum RH generally 8-15% in lower valleys. Longer critical wind/RH overlap supports elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions where grasses and brush have become sufficiently dry.

MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.