textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* The passage of a dry cold front will produce gusty winds and low humidities today, bringing critical fire weather concerns for northeast CA and parts of western NV.

* Cooler and breezy conditions for the remainder of the week with rain shower chances for northeast CA and northwest NV Thursday and Friday.

* Remnant moisture from a tropical system may increase chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week, though confidence remains low.

DISCUSSION

Today will be the driest and windiest day of the week, with afternoon wind gusts reaching 30-40 mph from roughly Topaz Lake north to the OR border, including parts of NE CA near Susanville. Ridgetop gusts will increase to 70-80 mph today, with gusts in the remainder of the area between 20-30 mph. Combined with humidity values ranging from 12-20%, Red Flag Warnings have been issued. Please see the Fire Discussion below for more details. Additionally, a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for area lakes in and around the Tahoe Basin, NE CA, and W NV. This includes Lake Tahoe, Pyramid Lake, Donner Lake, and many others. Please see the product for more details. In addition to bringing impacts to boaters on area lakes, expect blowing dust on desert playas and sinks bringing reduced visibilities, choppy air travel/turbulence, and localized difficult travel for high profile vehicles.

Breezy conditions continue through the remainder of the week, with afternoon high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal. This equates to highs in the mid 70s for valleys and low to mid 60s for Sierra communities. Overnight lows will also drop near to below freezing for Sierra communities like Truckee and Mammoth Lakes. Recreators are encouraged to monitor the forecast and bring layers when enjoying the outdoors, especially if staying out past sunset.

Precipitation chances (15-40%) creep into the area Wednesday night for Lassen county in NE CA as a low pressure system tracks inland. Rain will be more showery in nature, with 5-10% chances for embedded thunderstorms. Showers will expand both in probability (30-55%) and areal coverage as Thursday progresses, dipping south into the Tahoe Basin and the foothills of the Sierra Front Thursday into Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday look to be relatively dry, with Sunday introducing a wildcard into the forecast; precip chances increase to 15-25% across all of west-central NV and NE CA as models hint at moisture from a tropical system moving into the area. There is still plenty of uncertainty on the track of this tropical system so stay tuned for more concrete details as we get closer.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions persist areawide today with afternoon gusts of 25-30 kts. FL100 winds increase to 60-70 kts this afternoon, bringing LLWS and mountain wave turbulence to all Sierra and Sierra Front sites.

Areas of reduced visibility from blowing dust may impact KLOL, KNFL, KHTH as well as aviation operations on the Black Rock desert today.

-Giralte/Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

Today will pose the highest concern for critical fire weather conditions as humidity values drop to 12-20% and afternoon wind gusts increase up to 40 mph. This is due to a dry cold frontal passage today. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern Sierra Front and extending northward into NE CA east of CA-139, northern Washoe county, and the Surprise Valley in Modoc county. Winds will be primarily out of the southwest, shifting westerly/northwesterly after sunset.

Winds will remain gusty Wednesday (20 to 30 mph) but higher humidity values will limit fire concerns for most areas. Breezy afternoons continue through Friday, with precip chances and cooler temperatures mitigating the fire threat for the remainder of the week.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ458.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ420.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ002>004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday CAZ270-278.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday CAZ071-072.