textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions through Thursday across the region, with a downward trend in temperatures starting Friday.

* Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon, with increasing gusts possible Friday and Saturday.

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm potential returns south of US-50 Friday, with northward expansion of showers over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

The warm daytime temperatures will linger into Thursday as the ridge in place keeps us under its influence. Western Nevada valleys will be the focus for high temperatures reaching near 100 degrees, but the Sierra valleys will achieve upper 80s to low 90s. Then, an approaching trough from the northwest will begin to nudge cooler air from the northwest into the region. Along with the decreasing temperatures, an uptick in afternoon wind gust will appear for Friday, with gusts 30-35 mph. This trough will still be with us for Saturday, which will be the gustier of the two days. While this feature will dominate the weather pattern for our northeastern California and far northwestern Nevada neighbors, our southeastern neighbors in Mineral, Mono, and Churchill counties will start to see showers and storms streaming from the southeast as the periphery of the ridge retrogrades back to the west.

For Friday, moisture starts to approach, which may bring showers and storms as far north as US-50, but for now the chances are on the lower end, at 10-20%. Then, the moisture nudges further north for Saturday, bringing showers toward I-80 over the Basin and Range, increasing chances as more moisture will be available. The central Nevada area will see the higher chances of 25-45%, while further west over the southern Sierra and out over the Basin and Range the chances will range toward 15-25%. Sunday, the confidence on the position of the ridge is lesser, so the 10-25% chances could be modified as we go forward in the forecast cycle.

Looking beyond the weekend, there are hints of showers lingering, but given the ridge position is fairly uncertain in the late weekend, any shifts in ridge will impact the outcome. For now, we are seeing temperatures being held in a cooler trend, but if the ridge migrates westward, this could change. HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR conditions with daily afternoon gusts to 20 kts through Thursday. Winds will increase for Friday, with afternoon gusts to 30 kts. Friday, an increase in showers and storms may impact KMMH/KHTH/KBAN, with chances 10-20%. Saturday will bring increases in gusts to around 35 kts, along with increasing shower and storm chances as the moisture surges northwestward. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.