textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild weather prevails this weekend with increased afternoon breezes on Sunday.

* Periods of gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow are expected between Monday and Wednesday.

* Warmer and drier weather late next week, but with lingering shower chances.

DISCUSSION

Seasonably warm and dry conditions will largely characterize this weekend's weather as weak high pressure passes through the western states. Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the 60s and 70s this afternoon for Sierra and NE CA/W NV valleys, respectively. Much of the same is in store for Sunday, but with greater cloud cover and breezier afternoon winds.

Our next storm is slowly churning in the eastern Pacific per latest moisture-channel imagery, and is projected to impact the region during the first half of the upcoming week. Gusty winds and mountain snow -- and their attendant impacts to recreation and travel -- are the primary concerns with this storm passage between Monday and Wednesday. Strongest winds are favored Monday and Tuesday when there is a moderate to high (50-90%) likelihood of gusts exceeding 40 mph across much of the region. A more southerly orientation of the wind field suggests that areas prone to south winds (e.g. along US-395/I- 580, US-95, etc) may see locally stronger gusts up to 60-65 mph at times. Winds will be gusty/strong on Tuesday, but intensity and duration will depend on the timing of a cold frontal passage. However, there is higher confidence in strongest winds materializing from Mono County to Pershing County closer to a deepening surface low in W central Nevada.

Rain and mountain snow begins to overspread the region Tuesday in concert with the advancing cold front. Snow levels start at 6500- 7500 ft across the eastern Sierra before falling to around 5000-5500 ft Wednesday morning. This will allow snowfall down to Sierra passes during this timeframe when there is ~30% chance of 12" or more by Thursday morning. The higher sun angle does introduce uncertainty in how much snow can stick to roadways, but in any case, be prepared for travel disruptions in and across the Sierra next week. A few lightning strikes also cannot be ruled out as increasing instability will bring a 10-20% of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

We'll begin to warm-up and dry out Thursday into the weekend, but a persistent troughing pattern will maintain lower end shower chances each day through next Saturday.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions and light breezes prevail today under weak high pressure. Similar conditions are expected Sunday with breezy S/SW winds in the afternoon. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate Monday through Wednesday as a late season storm brings gusty winds, rain, mountain snow, and low chances (10-20%) chance of lightning.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.