textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A gradual warming trend continues, with highs reaching the 90s in lower elevations and 80s near the Sierra for the July 4th holiday weekend and next week.

* Typical afternoon breezes are expected each day through early next week, stay fire safe.

* Afternoon cumulus buildups are likely each day into next week, with a less than 10% chance for brief showers or thunder.

DISCUSSION

A weak low pressure trough over CA/NV will gradually retreat to just off the Pacific NW coast as we reach the July 4th holiday weekend. This will allow for continued warming for the next few days. From July 4th through at least early next week, highs are projected to remain steady in the mid-upper 90s for most lower elevations and lower-mid 80s for Sierra communities--a bit warmer than average but not unusual for early July. The dry air mass will allow for decent cooling each night which limits the overall HeatRisk, although pockets of Moderate HeatRisk return to warmer valleys each afternoon from Saturday onward, when taking the usual heat safety precautions is advised.

Each afternoon will bring typical zephyr-type breezes with gusts near 25 mph, although on any afternoon occasional gusts around 30 mph are within reach mainly near the US-395/I-580 corridors. With the recent dry conditions across the region, any spark could ignite and carry in dry vegetation, so avoid activities that could start a fire, and be extra cautious with fireworks for the holiday festivities. While the overall winds won't meet lake wind advisory thresholds, be aware of localized choppy conditions each afternoon-evening, which could be enhanced a bit with increased watercraft usage on area lakes.

While there isn't a significant thunderstorm threat for the upcoming week, as temperatures climb we'll see daily formation of cumulus each afternoon. Any subtle weak upper disturbance combined with terrain-driven convergence could allow for a few short-lived showers capable of isolated lightning. This potential is minimal (less than 10%) but non-zero, but if any showers manage to form, favored areas would be near the eastern Sierra and adjacent portions of western NV mainly from US-50 southward. The latest high resolution model guidance continues to show a mix of scenarios today through Friday, ranging from just flat to moderate cumulus to a few shower/t-storm cells popping up between 3-9 PM. MJD

AVIATION

* Widespread VFR conditions expected at the main terminals through the holiday weekend with areas of cirrus passing through at times. Each afternoon will see FEW-SCT cumulus but chances for rain or thunder near any terminal is 5% or less.

* Typical SW-W winds are expected each afternoon-early evening (mainly between 21-04Z) through at least Sunday with gusts generally 20-25 kt at the main terminals. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.