textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler weather continues through Tuesday morning, with chilly overnight temperatures.

* Valley rain showers and snow on the highest peaks are possible through Tuesday morning.

* A gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday, with dry conditions and light afternoon breezes returning.

DISCUSSION

For the rest of today going into tonight, model guidance shows an upper low over SE Oregon traveling down into central Nevada. With this pattern aloft today, cooler air continues to flow into the region from the north, which along with increased cloud cover over the region causes daytime high temperatures around 15-20 degrees below normal. Prepare for a cold night as well with W.Nevada seeing lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s range and Sierra communities being in the middle teens to lower 20s range. Remember to protect the 4 P's from the cold: people, pets, plants, and pipes.

As for precipitation chances, the latest run for the HRRR model shows shower chances increasing generally south of I-80 this afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances begin at 15-40% this afternoon and increase to 30-70% in the evening with the higher end chances seen in Mono and Mineral Counties. According to the latest run of the NBM, snow levels in the afternoon still look to be around 6500-7500 ft before dropping below 6000 ft around 8-11 PM in the Tahoe area and around 11 PM - 2 AM in Mono County. By Tuesday morning, snow levels will drop to around 4000-5000 ft in the Tahoe area and around 4500-5500 ft in Mono County. So expect valley rain and mountain snow with showers that occur today, with rain gradually turning to snow going into the night. Fortunately, the HRRR shows most shower chances fading around midnight tonight before the coldest temperatures arrive, though there may be some lingering showers south of US-50 into early Tuesday morning. Please be careful if traveling in the region tonight as any precipitation may make roads slick and wet surfaces may freeze when temperatures drop. Visibility could be reduced as well due to snowfall.

As better moisture is well off to the east of our area, current QPF values with showers through tomorrow morning look to range between a trace and about 0.2 inches. The latest NBM probabilities show around a 20-50% chance of 1+ inch of snow in the highest peaks of the Sierra with the White Mountains seeing a 20-40% chance of 2+ inches. Lower elevations that see snowfall could receive a dusting to a few tenths of an inch if snow collects. There's also less than 10% chance for a rumble of thunder within showers today, with thunderstorms that occur being capable of brief periods of heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday, model guidance starts to show high pressure building over the region through the rest of the week as the upper low departs farther east. This signals a gradual warming trend with drier weather through the rest of the week, with daytime high temperatures across the region returning to near or above seasonal normals toward the weekend. Extended guidance does hint at a possible cooling trend at the start of next week. -078

AVIATION

Mostly VFR conditions continue with brief periods of MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration in the Sierra due to showers through around 13/06-07Z. KRNO/KCXP/KMEV/ see N/NW winds gusting up to around 25 kts through around 13/04-05Z when there is a 15-30% chance for isolated showers in the vicinity. KTVL sees a 20-40% chance for showers through 13/04Z as well. Portions of the Eastern Sierra (including KMCK) have a 35-65% chance through 13/07Z that will taper off completely by around 13/12Z. There also looks to be a 20-30% conditional chance of morning fog forming early Tuesday in the vicinity of KTRK should showers occur nearby today.

By Tuesday afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail as a period of dry conditions begins along with a gradual warming trend. Sierra ridge winds may also gust up to around 50 kts on Tuesday afternoon. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.