textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather prevails through next week with warmer than normal daytime temperatures this weekend.

* Periods of increased breezes will pose minor impacts to aviation and recreation Sunday into Monday.

* A wetter and windier pattern continues to be delayed. Could see increased winds as early as Friday, with precipitation moving in Saturday.

DISCUSSION

The weather this weekend and throughout the upcoming week will feel similar to groundhog day, where it's the same thing over and over. A rather robust ridge overhead will allow our region to warm up each afternoon while maintaining chilly mornings. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be the main theme for the next 5-6 days, so take advantage of this relatively warm weekend today and tomorrow!

Monday will be the lone exception to this rinse and repeat weather, though. A very weak and dry shortwave trough will pass by to our north over Washington and Oregon, which will just kick up our gusts a bit to 15-20 mph in the Sierra from Tahoe northward and 20-30 mph in northern Lassen and northern Washoe counties. Tuesday through Thursday, high pressure strengthens and pushes the shortwave out east. This will make for very pleasant conditions with light winds and high temperatures peaking in the upper 60s across western NV valleys and mid 60s in the Sierra.

Now for the tricky part of the forecast. The past 5 or so days we've been advertising active weather and possibly an atmospheric river at the end of next week, after Veteran's Day. However, the models have really struggled to resolve how that's all going to pan out. Just a couple days ago we were seeing the storm door opening Wednesday, but now, it seems as though it's more likely to be Saturday. Once high pressure builds in next week, it will basically act like a shield, deflecting any incoming storms to our north and south.

Friday, a deep trough off the West Coast stretches and splits and forms a cut-off low that dives south, leaving central CA in the middle of a deformation zone. Sweeping in just behind that looks to be a strong cold front that could bring our first wave of precip to the Sierra and northeast CA around Saturday-Sunday. Only about 40- 50% of ensemble members show measurable precipitation in the Sierra this upcoming weekend. The area of deformation could be what's helping perpetuate and strengthen the cold front, among orographic lift and other forcing mechanisms, giving us that 40-50% chance of seeing precipitation by Monday. But what we're seeing that is a little discouraging, is the AR Landfall Tool showing lower moisture probabilities that weekend for our range of latitudes than what we were seeing a couple of days ago. Being roughly 7 days out, I don't want to completely bank on these ensemble model solutions, and I expect there to be more changes in the forecast coming in the next few days. However, there remains a consistent trend among ensembles, even present earlier this week, that an active period is coming next weekend.

-Justin

AVIATION

KRNO... VFR conditions and light westerly winds are expected this afternoon. A scattered deck of cirrus clouds will be moving in tonight after 06Z. Valley inversions and morning haze may reduce slantwise visibilities each morning.

Elsewhere... VFR conditions continue for all terminals tonight with light westerly winds this afternoon. FL100 winds will increase Sunday into Monday out of the WSW between 25-30kt, though no LLWS is expected.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.