textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm weather prevails through the weekend with low chances of afternoon showers and storms from Mono County into Mineral County. * A heatwave will induce moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday through Wednesday.

* A pattern change may bring cooler temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and increased shower and storm chances late next week.

DISCUSSION

Eastern Pacific ridging will sustain very warm weather with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s and 90s this afternoon across Sierra and lower NE CA/W NV communities, respectively. Stronger differential heating and resultant instability will support a low probability (up to 15% chance) of isolated showers and thunderstorms from Mono County into S.Lyon and Mineral counties this afternoon.

Slight amplification of our governing weather pattern will allow more pronounced troughing (albeit still weak) to develop over the weekend. Our warming trend will briefly pause in response, keeping daytime highs in the low to mid 80s and 90s Saturday and Sunday. Similar shower and thunderstorm odds (15% or less) will exist in Mono, Mineral, and far S. Lyon counties each afternoon this weekend, but it's possible showers/storms spread northward along the Sierra crest towards the Tahoe Basin.

A heatwave remains on track for the first half of next week as broad high pressure expands across the western states. Daytime highs near/in excess of 90F and 100F will support widespread moderate HeatRisk between Monday and Wednesday, with nighttime lows in the mid/upper 60s pushing HeatRisk into the major category for W NV valleys. Now is a good time to review your heat safety precautions and to make your plans accordingly. Shower and storm chances linger early next week given warming surface temperatures, but subsident flow may limit chances/coverage.

A ridge breakdown sequence is shaping up to take place after Wednesday, allowing a troughing pattern to develop across the west late next week and weekend. This type of pattern change tends to encourage breezy winds and elevated fire concerns, along with better shower/storm potential, but confidence is low at this point. However, there is higher confidence that we'll cool down to more seasonable temperatures late next week after a few days of hot conditions.

-Salas

AVIATION

The main weather concern will be the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms near KMMH each afternoon through the weekend. Chances are low (15% or less), but gusty outflow winds, brief downpours, and isolated lightning may impact KMMH should showers/storms develop. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes prevail through the weekend.

Density altitude concerns arise early next week as temperatures become 10-20 degrees above average.

-Salas

FIRE WEATHER

An extended period of very warm/hot and dry conditions is expected through next Thursday. Monday through Wednesday features the hottest temperatures (10-20F above normal) with RH reductions to the teens and single digits. While winds aren't anticipated to deviate stronger than our typical summertime breeze, Tuesday stands out as having increased breezes and possible elevated fire concerns in western Nevada. Furthermore, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon into next week, raising localized concerns for lightning ignitions and strong outflow winds.

Breakdown of a western ridge is slated to occur after Wednesday, which may introduce increased breezes and greater fire concerns, as well as better thunderstorm potential late next week into next weekend.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.