textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Heavy Sierra snow and western Nevada rain will peak on Friday afternoon/evening, then tapering Saturday morning.

* A colder system brings mountain snow and valley rain Sunday night-Tuesday after a brief weekend break.

DISCUSSION

Storm 1: Friday through Saturday Morning

* Snow & Timing: Heavy wet snow is targeting the Tahoe Basin between 2PM and 8PM and targeting Mono County between 3PM through 10PM. Snowfall rates will approach 1-2" per hour, with the Sierra Crest seeing up to 3" per hour. Snowfall totals will reach 1+ feet above 7000', with up to 1-2 feet for the Sierra Crest. Snow levels will drop to around 5000-5500 feet late Friday night before snow showers begin to taper on Saturday morning.

* Strong Winds: Gusts of 45-55 mph will blow across exposed valleys with up to 70 mph for wind-prone spots (US-395) and 80+ mph along the Sierra Crest today. Expect choppy lake waters and blowing dust across dry lake beds and desert sinks. Winds will begin to taper late afternoon as a band of showers moves across the region, but will increase again once the late afternoon/evening rain/snow band exits to the east.

* Western Nevada Valleys: Rain peaks Friday afternoon/evening with a precipitation total ranging 0.1-0.5". Rain will transition to light snow late Friday night for locations above 5000-5500 feet, which could bring up a trace of snow to higher foothills such as Virginia City and Galena, with rain on lower valley floors.

A Break in the Action: Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon

* Dry and calm conditions return across the region Saturday morning as snow showers clear out.

Storm 2: Sunday Night into Tuesday Morning

* Colder and Less Windy System: The steadiest snowfall rates will arrive to Tahoe late Sunday night into Monday morning, then into Mono County by Monday afternoon/evening. Expect 3-8" of snowfall on Sierra passes with up to a foot on the Sierra Crest. Elsewhere, in lower valleys, up to 0.1" of light rain is possible. Snow levels will fall to valleys floors as showers wrap-up for Tuesday morning.

Looking Ahead: Mid-to-Late Next Week:

* After a brief break Tuesday night, a colder Gulf of Alaska system could bring another round of Sierra snow Wednesday through Thursday, potentially lowering snow levels to western Nevada valley floors once again. HRICH

AVIATION

KRNO Forecast:

* Friday Morning into Afternoon: Southerly surface gusts increase to 20-30 kts Friday morning, peaking at 35-40 kts late afternoon. LLWS and turbulence are likely around 21-00z with S/SW winds 45- 50 kts at 2kft AGL.

* Friday Evening into Saturday Morning: Rain likely late Friday afternoon with brief MVFR and terrain obscuration. Winds shift W/NW around 10 kts with 20 kt gusts by 03z Saturday.

Regional Outlook:

* Friday Winds & Turbulence: S/SW winds reach 45-55 kts at 1.5-2 kft AGL for KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH Friday afternoon, creating LLWS and mountain wave turbulence. Peak gusts: 25-35 kt at KCXP/KMEV, ~40 kts at KTVL/KMMH.

24-72 Hour Outlook:

* Friday Night Flight Categories: Ceilings lower to MVFR at KTRK/KTVL Friday afternoon, dropping to IFR/LIFR as rain turns to snow between 00-03z Saturday. Snow arrives to KMMH Friday evening with MVFR/IFR.

* Weekend Outlook: VFR conditions return for Saturday through Sunday. The next storm system arrives Sunday night through Tuesday morning. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening NVZ005.

High Wind Watch from 10 AM PST this morning through this evening NVZ005.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening NVZ001-003-004.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ002.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Saturday NVZ002.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening CAZ070.

High Wind Watch from 10 AM PST this morning through this evening CAZ070.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening CAZ071.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ072.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Saturday CAZ072-073.