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KEY MESSAGES

* A spring storm will bring periods of gusty winds, rain, mountain snow, and low-end thunderstorm chances today through Wednesday.

* Warmer and drier weather returns late this week, but with lingering shower chances.

DISCUSSION

The focus today will be on the increasing winds as the arriving system begins to impact the region. Southwesterly gusts will increase this morning along Sierra ridges, but by late morning will begin to mix down to valleys. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected (60- 90% chance) with some wind prone spots peaking at gusts of 60+ mph. Favored spots will include US-395 through Mono County, I-580 along Washoe Lake and US-95 along Walker Lake. Lake Wind Advisories have been hoisted across all lakes in the warning area.

Winds will subside in valleys overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, when mixing will allow the gusts to reach the valleys again Tuesday. The bulk of the winds will have nudged eastward, out ahead of the precipitation. As the showers filter in for Tuesday, areas such as Mineral and Mono counties will see increasing southerly winds, while elsewhere the winds will be replaced by showers. There is around a 50% chance to see gusts 50+ mph along US-395 in Mono County and US-95 in Mineral County.

As for the showers, the main show will be along the Sierra crest, where the chance for accumulating 12 inches at Donner Pass is about 50% by Wednesday evening, and chances for 18 inches at Donner Pass checking in around 20%. For the Tahoe Basin, a light 2 to 4 inches is possible, with the greater totals on the western shores. For example, Meeks Bay has a 70% chance for 4 inches of snow, while Zephyr Cove has only a 10-15% chance for 4 inches by Wednesday evening. Snow levels are expected to fall, but the precipitation timing (considering timing of intensity) seems to align best with the Tuesday snow levels of around 6500-7000 feet. Snow levels are expected to drop to near valley floors by early Wednesday morning, but by then the showers are moving east and tapering. A main point to consider this time of year is high sun angle working against snow accumulations on roads, although a layer will develop on most elevated surfaces. Finally, there is a 15-20% chance that any given shower could contain embedded lightning.

Thursday, we say goodbye to the showers and winds, and hello to a warming and drying trend that will take us into Friday. This storm door seems to be staying open, as a troughing pattern advertises a series of systems to come. Details will emerge as the end of April draws nearer. HRICH

AVIATION

* Late today into Tuesday, KSVE will start to see showers moving in early Tuesday morning, and by Tuesday afternoon the majority of terminals will see rain, snow, winds and possible lightning.

* Southerly winds will increase first for valley terminals (around 18z) with gusts to 60+ possible by this afternoon. For valley terminals, winds will increase after 20z, with gusts 30-40 mph this afternoon. Gusty winds will return for Tuesday. LLWS and turbulence are concerns both today and Tuesday. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon CAZ072-073.