textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A cool start to the week will be followed by a gradual warming trend accompanied by generally dry conditions and lighter winds.

* An upper level low will drop into northern CA and NV Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in cooler temperatures, increased breezes, and low chances for showers near the Oregon border.

* Dry and warmer conditions with lighter winds are likely to return for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of noon, current temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday, with light east winds and clear skies. For tonight, we'll see similar low temperatures in the 40s for most lower elevations and 30s to even upper 20s again for Sierra valleys. For Tuesday, we remain dry with afternoon high temperatures increasing around 3-5 degrees, which will put us back to near average for mid-September. Winds will return to the normal westerly breezes in the afternoon, with gusts between 20-25 mph.

There is high confidence in the models and ensembles that a weak upper low from British Columbia will move south on Wednesday, with the center of the low off the northern CA coast. This low then slowly works its way east over northern NV by Thursday, then exits the area by Friday. Weather-wise, a majority of the area will remain dry with this weak system. At this time, the best chances (10-25%) for precipitation will be on Wednesday and Thursday in northeast CA and far northwest NV. Additionally, winds will increase in strength on Tuesday and peak on Wednesday. Current blended guidance has a 25-50% chance for peak gusts of at least 30 mph Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain 3-6 degrees below average Wednesday to Friday. For the weekend into next week, a high pressure ridge is projected to return across the west coast, resulting in warmer temperatures, lighter winds, and continued dry conditions. -McKellar

AVIATION

* VFR conditions prevail for the upcoming week, with lighter NE-E winds (gusts below 20 kt) at the main terminals into the evening. * By Tuesday afternoon, west winds return (except S-SW for KTRK/KTVL), with gusts near 20 kt. Wind gusts increase further to near 25 kt with areas of turbulence by Wednesday afternoon, as a weak low pressure drops into northern CA. MJD/McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.