textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy west winds develop today ahead of the next storm with recreation and aviation impacts possible with gusty ridge winds.

* The next storm arrives later today into Thursday morning, setting us up for light mountain and valley snow potential.

* Warmer, drier weather returning through at least the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Winds are developing across the ridges this morning, with gusts increasing into the afternoon today. Wind gusts will continue to intensify into the overnight hours tonight, as a piecemeal jet at 300 mb of 110 kts tries to congeal over the region. Westerly ridge gusts today will reach upwards of 70+ mph around Tahoe peaks, while western Nevada leeside valleys will see gusts of 25-30 mph. The core of wind speeds will move as the jet slides in a northwest to southeast directional from the Oregon border this morning to the southern end of the Sierra by Thursday morning. As the jet becomes more collected overhead, it brings gusts of 60 mph to Mono County ridges early Thursday morning. By midday Thursday, the winds will be subsiding for northeastern California and the western Nevada valleys. At the same time, winds across Mineral County will be reaching a zenith, as the frontal boundary clears the region. Lake Wind Advisories are posted for Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake for wind gusts up to 35 mph, which will create choppy lake waters and wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.

Snowfall will be mostly light with this fast-moving, moisture- starved system arriving late tonight into Thursday. The main caveat to this is a banded snowfall scenario that could bring 1 inch per hour snowfall rates to the highest peaks around Tahoe for a brief overnight period ahead of Thursday's commute. This band of snowfall may also deposit snow on valley floors, with a 30% chance for 0.5 inches of snow for Verdi, and Stead checking in with a 15% chance for that 0.5 inch total. As for I-80, Donner Pass has a 35-40% chance to acquire 3 inches of snow. Amounts may be lighter on the eastern slopes of the Tahoe Basin, with Mt. Rose Summit checking in with a 10% chance for the same 3 inches. On the high end, up to 4 inches of snow could be found across the higher Sierra peaks along the western Tahoe Basin, and under the heaviest bands. The nature of banded snowfall lends to a tale of the haves versus the have- nots. In other words, some places will receive measurable snow, while others may only see flurries in the air. It does not take a significant amount of snow to produce slick roads, so our advice is to leave early for the Thursday morning commute to allow for longer travel times on slippery roads that may develop. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for western Nevada valleys as a heads up for the incoming system.

Once we clear the boards of this system, a warming and drying trend will emerge under a stout ridging pattern that will dominate the West Coast through at least the end of next week. Highs across western Nevada will climb out of the 40s to near the mid 50s by midweek next week. Sierra valleys will join in, with low 50s by the same time frame. HRICH

AVIATION

* Surface winds will be increasing today, with sustained winds for western Nevada terminals reaching 15-20 kts after 21z. LLWS will be intermittent later in the day as ridges gust to 60 kts after 00z. * The potential for snow showers returns after Thursday 6z with local visibility reductions possible and light snow accumulations. Banded snowfall may reduce visibility rapidly. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Thursday NVZ002.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Thursday NVZ001.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Thursday NVZ003-004.

Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Thursday CAZ072.