textproduct: Reno

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer than normal weather prevails through the weekend with typical afternoon westerly breezes.

* 10-30% chances for showers along with isolated thunderstorms Thursday into the holiday weekend.

* A Pacific storm may result in a period of cooler, windier, and more unsettled weather early next week.

DISCUSSION

Warm, above average temperatures continue through the weekend. Highs will reach the lower 80s across W.Nevada through Friday, then will climb to the mid-to-upper 80s by Saturday and Sunday (70s for Sierra valleys). Moisture will increase through Friday as PWATs rise to near 0.6-0.7". Combined with daytime heating and convergence along the afternoon zephyr, weak shortwave forcing could trigger 10-20% chances for showers and 5-10% chances for isolated lightning strikes. Shower chances increase slightly Friday afternoon (20-35%), though the main limiting factor will be instability with MUCAPE values only around 100-200 J/kg.

Drier air will filter in with an approaching shortwave trough on Saturday-Sunday which will shift shower and isolated thunderstorm chances eastward across the W.Nevada Basin and Range and south into Mono County. Otherwise expect dry conditions outside these areas with typical afternoon zephyr breezes with gust up to around 20 mph, then slightly breezier Saturday afternoon.

We will get a reminder that we are still in spring early next as a deeper closed low drops across northern Nevada. This may result in a much cooler and unsettled pattern through mid-week. Gusty winds and low humidity in the low teens and single digits Monday afternoon could provide increasing fire weather concerns for any areas of cured fine fuels/grasses across portions of western Nevada. Timing and the trajectory of the low are still lower end confidence at this time but will have implications on how much cooling and how gusty winds become early next week. Fuentes

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions and light breezes prevail today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Today and Friday, with best chances (10-20%) at KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. Otherwise, expect increasing cumulus in the afternoons, which may result in mountain obscurations.

-Salas/Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.

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