textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Light showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms are possible today, posing a risk of new lightning fire starts. * Typical July heat continues through midweek with breezy afternoon winds posing minor fire and recreation impacts.

* Hotter temperatures and increasing heat risk probable by late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough traversing across the region will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies today with a 15% chance of showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Favored areas for isolated storms remain across far NE California and NW Nevada near the Oregon border (15-20% chance) with lesser potential (5-10%) across the E.Sierra and Sierra Front with expansive cloud cover limiting afternoon heating and instability.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish on Monday afternoon as a drier swath of moisture moves its way into the N.Sierra and W.Nevada. A few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger roughly south of US-50 in the E.Sierra and across far northern Washoe County and the Surprise Valley (10-15% chances), with generally less than a 5% chance elsewhere.

After a few days of near average temperatures today and Monday, temperatures will begin a heating trend through the week. Strengthening high pressure across the SW will allow highs to return to the mid/upper 90s by Tuesday before W.Nevada communities heat to near 100 degrees (60-90% chances) by next weekend with Sierra valleys generally warming to the mid and upper 80s. Expect areas of moderate to major heat risk for hotter W.Nevada valleys.

Otherwise we'll be looking at dry conditions with typical afternoon zephyr breezes with limited precipitation potential this week. Looking ahead to the week of July 13th, there continues to be signals for monsoonal moisture to push northward into the E.Sierra and W.Nevada. This would create a favorable set-up for a multi-day pattern of afternoon thunderstorms during this timeframe. While more than a week out, confidence on timing and coverage will be refined in the week to come but be sure to keep tabs if you have any outdoor plans as this pattern can provide wide ranging impacts. Fuentes

AVIATION

An upper level disturbance will continue 15% chances for afternoon showers along with isolated thunderstorms. Tahoe and Sierra Front terminals will see 10% chances for T-Storms this afternoon between 21-03z with about a 5% chance for KMMH. Otherwise, expect typical west gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon. Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

* Increased clouds with a 10% of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon after about 1-2pm across the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front. Best potential today favors far E.Lassen County, N.Washoe County, and the Surprise valley (15-20% chances).

* T-storm chances diminish Monday with only a 10-15% chance lingering across far N.Washoe county and areas south of US-50 in the E.Sierra into W.Mineral County. 5% chances elsewhere. Drier conditions expected the rest of the week with temperatures heating to near triple digits by the weekend for W.Nevada.

* These storms will be capable of producing isolated cloud-to- ground dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds (40-50 mph). Any new ignitions could rapidly spread with these gusty outflow winds.

* In addition, this passing wave could produce localized critical conditions due to a wind increase late this afternoon and evening across NE California/NW Nevada, mainly across Fire Weather Zones 278 and 458. Wind gusts could reach 25-35 mph with minimum RH dipping to 10-15%. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.