textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Cool and pleasant conditions through Monday with morning lows near freezing in the Sierra valleys.
* Afternoon breezes return for the second half of this week with near normal summer temperatures and dry conditions for the holiday weekend.
DISCUSSION
Cool, calm, and collected is the name of the game today! The only exception may be along the Sierra crest from South Lake Tahoe down to Mammoth where most hi-res solutions (minus the HRRR) are highlighting light shower potential this afternoon. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 70s and 60s for valleys and higher elevations, respectively. Another cold morning on tap Monday morning, with a ~45% chance for lows near or below freezing for colder Sierra valleys.
Models have quickly resolved an insider-slider type low tomorrow, which is a bit odd for late June. Anyhow, this closed low pressure will bring additional upper level forcing, though the moisture content is quite low. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase along the Sierra tomorrow afternoon, with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE from Truckee down to the Mono/Inyo county border. PWATs are quite low, though, only 0.3-0.4" at best. As such, expect any storms that develop (10-15% chance) to be on the drier side.
The low pressure system that brought this weekend's much cooler temps will stall over the Great Basin this week, helping to keep afternoon highs near or slightly below normal (mid 80s and low 70s for W NV and Sierra communities, respectively) through midweek. We will also see enhanced breezes by the middle of the week, with the best chances for gusts to exceed 30-35 mph on Thursday for W NV. With the pre-existing dry vegetation and low humidities, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to emerge. Looking further out, afternoon highs will increase to the low 90s for W NV and low 80s for the Sierra for Independence Day.
-Giralte
AVIATION
VFR conditions for all terminals today. Afternoon cumulus build ups after 21z are possible along the Sierra between KTVL-KMMH, though chances remain below 15%. Any showers that develop may bring localized mountain obscurations.
A second weather system arrives Monday with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms KTRK-KMMH 21z-03z Tuesday.
-Giralte/Brong
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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