textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather prevails through the middle of next week with warmer than normal daytime temperatures this weekend.

* Periods of increased breezes will pose minor impacts to aviation and recreation Sunday into Monday.

* A wetter and windier pattern remains on track to arrive late next week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

We will get to enjoy a warm and dry weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead. Today's afternoon temperatures will increase into the low to mid-60s in western NV and northeast CA. Eastern Sierra communities will vary from the upper-50s to mid-60s. Afternoon high temperatures increase a few more degrees on Sunday, with mid-60s to near 70 degrees in western NV, and low to mid-60s in the eastern Sierra. Winds today are light throughout the region. However by Sunday, west to southwest winds will begin to increase during the afternoon along the ridgetops in response to a weak trough poised to brush the region on Monday. A weak trough will pass through the Pacific Northwest on Monday resulting in a slight increase in winds throughout the region. Gusts have not changed much from prior guidance. The strongest west to southwest winds Monday afternoon are favored toward the Oregon border, with gusts of 25-30 mph. Meanwhile, west to southwest wind gusts to 15-20 mph are expected elsewhere. Ridgetop winds from the Tahoe Basin northward will also become gusty at times through Monday evening, with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will tumble a few degrees, but remain above average for the second week of November. At this moment, this weak system is still dry.

From Tuesday through Thursday, the model ensembles agree that a ridge of high pressure will amplify across the western half of the U.S. As a result, temperatures during this timeframe will be upwards of 4 to 8 degrees above average mid mid-November. With high pressure aloft, the storm track and precipitation remain to the north. By Friday through the weekend, ensembles continue to show the upper high pressure moving east as a larger scale trough moves into the eastern Pacific/west coast. Meanwhile, a cutoff low forms and moves south toward southern CA/Baja. At this time, there remains high uncertainty from rain/snow timing and amounts, as well as winds across the region. The bottom line toward the end of next week (14th to 15th), the pattern will change from calm, dry weather to a more active, wet, and windy. -McKellar

AVIATION

VFR conditions for all terminals through the weekend with light winds. Valley inversions and morning haze may reduce slantwise visibilities each morning for KRNO. FL100 winds increase by early Sunday morning, bringing brief periods of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.