textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Scattered thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening.
* Quiet weather this weekend with warm but below average temperatures, light winds, and no precipitation.
* Most of next week will be seasonably warm and mainly dry. A few buildups or isolated storms cannot be ruled out over the high terrain.
DISCUSSION
* Another round of showers/t-storms expected this afternoon but less widespread than the past couple days. Probabilities are 20-40%. Based on the HREF we're looking at mid-afternoon development along Hwy 395 and adjacent high terrain, which then pushes eastward late afternoon into early evening. Typical impacts: outflow gusts 30-40 MPH, lightning, possible new fire starts, and brief heavy rain up to 1"/hour, and of course small hail.
* Quiet pattern for this weekend with warm but below average temperatures, good humidity recoveries, little/no precip, and light afternoon breezes.
* Regarding smoke potential, unless there's a big shift upward in fire activity or new fires, smoke models are not showing much in our area through the weekend. Localized smoke/haze is possible near ongoing fires such as the Bug, Stallion, and Talbot.
* Next week also looks relatively tame weather-wise compared to this past week, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin with a trough along the west coast. Basically that yields warm daytime temps but nothing excessive, typical afternoon zephyr breezes, lower humidities which also brings cooler nighttime lows, and little/no precip. There's a 5-10% chance of buildups or even isolated storms over the high terrain starting Thursday but confidence is low.
-Chris
AVIATION
* Scattered t-storms expected from roughly 22z/14-04z/15 that could bring brief periods of MVFR conditions in rain. Erratic outflow winds 25-35 knots, lightning, and small hail are possible. Main risk area includes RNO, CXP, MEV, HTH, NFL, and LOL. Blowing dust is possible near NFL/LOL.
* Outside of storms today and through the weekend, expect VFR conditions with light/variable winds turning westerly each afternoon with scattered mid/high altitude clouds. Fog at TRK can never be ruled out, but with limited precipitation there the past few days, the odds for Saturday morning are low ~10%.
-Chris
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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