textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with light winds and unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend.

* Hazy skies and minor reductions in air quality possible each morning across lower urban valleys.

* A pattern change is expected next week, bringing increasing winds and slight chances for precipitation primarily to the Sierra and northeast California.

DISCUSSION

Sunny skies and morning valley inversions continue through the weekend. The resultant haze and minor air quality concerns may persist into the afternoon hours each day, as winds remain very light even with the unseasonably warm temperatures we have experienced over the past several days. Above average temperature continue through the weekend and next week, with a slight cool down by mid next week.

Confidence continues to increase with the passage of a weak shortwave trough on Monday night into Tuesday, mainly affecting the Tahoe Basin and northward into NE CA with minor spillover into the Sierra Front. The system is relatively weak with precipitation amounts through Tuesday afternoon generally less than 0.1 inches. There appears to be an uptick in precipitation by Tuesday evening with up to 0.25-0.40 inches near the Sierra crest, but there is only a 20-50% chance of observing precipitation. Snow levels remain quite high too, above 8500 ft. Therefore, snow accumulations will be in the highest peaks. Western NV rain chances continue to be low at 10-25% per NBM guidance.

Subsequent shortwaves are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, keeping rounds of light showers for the middle part of next week. Winds next week will also increase with this series of shortwaves with the stronger gusts on Wednesday and Thursday with a 20-50% chance of seeing gusts above 40 mph in mountain ridges and wind prone areas. However, the ensemble models for the GFS/ECMWF/CMC diverge in terms of precipitation intensity and type, and wind magnitudes this far out. The ensembles are hitting at a wetter pattern continuing beyond next weekend, but we have seen how this year has gone. We will have to wait to get closer to have a better picture of the possible scenarios and better details.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions persist through Friday along with light winds across much of the area. Although, FZFG continues to be an issue at KTRK between 08Z-16Z with a 20-40% chance of developing. Slantwise VIS restriction are also a concern for western NV terminals due to haze from morning valley inversions.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.