textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild conditions with light winds continue through much of Thursday across the area.

* Isolated and light rain and snow showers Thursday evening across the Sierra, lingering through Friday.

* Cooler conditions with valley rain and mountain snow chances above 7500 ft Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

If you've been following the forecast for this weekend, you'll know that it has fluctuated each day this week. Today is no exception! Biggest change with this morning's forecast run is that the hi-res models are showing greater agreement in light showers Thursday afternoon for the Sierra and Sierra Front. Snow levels will be around 7000 ft, and any accumulations will be light. However, it's very possible that these "showers" may only materialize as cloud cover; current forecast POPs are 10% or less. Until then, expect cool and mild conditions with light winds.

Chances (15-30%) for Sierra snow increase late Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow levels lower a bit; above 6500 ft for much of the Tahoe Basin, increasing to above 7000 ft near Tioga Pass and over 7250 ft for southern Mono county near Mammoth. New snow accumulations will amount to 0.5" or less.

Precip chances increase areawide from Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Snow levels will fluctuate but will be mainly above 7500 ft for the Tahoe Basin, Sierra Front, and Basin and Range. Expect locally lower snow levels for NE CA (above 7000 ft) and higher for Mono county (generally above 8000 ft). This will result in snowfall totals of 4" or less along the Sierra, locally up to 6" west of the June Lake Loop. Liquid totals from this event will reach up to 0.06" for much of the valleys, with wetting rains (0.1-0.3") for higher elevations. The heaviest precip will occur overnight Saturday into Sunday, with clearing conditions by Sunday afternoon.

Ridging looks to settle back in place Sunday through at least Wednesday with light winds, dry conditions, and slightly warming temperatures (mid to upper 50s).

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions areawide today with winds of generally 8 kts or less. Increasing chances for rain Thursday night for KTRK and KTVL, however any accumulations will be light. Conditions may degrade to MVFR with lower CIGS/VIS from precip after 30/09Z. Otherwise, expect mountain obscurations for all terminals by Thursday afternoon.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.