textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated light rain showers and breezy ridge winds from the Tahoe basin northward to the Oregon border will end this morning as a weak weather system exits to the Oregon border.

* A dry and warmer pattern will prevail for the rest of today into early next week, with highs by Monday near record levels.

* A more active storm pattern may return by late next week, but current confidence is lower on rain, snow, and wind impacts.

DISCUSSION

An area of light rain showers moving across northern CA will spread across parts of northeast CA and northwest NV through the early morning hours, although higher resolution guidance shows a weakening trend, with only sparse rainfall amounts (less than 0.05") expected.

After these showers end, a building high pressure ridge over CA/NV will produce several days of dry weather with light winds prevailing. A slow warming trend will also take place, with valley inversions by this weekend leading to similar high temperatures for lower elevations and Sierra communities, mainly in the mid-upper 60s through this weekend. As the ridge starts to flatten early next week, weaker inversions will bring additional warming to lower elevations, with highs pushing into the lower 70s through Veterans Day. Monday has a reachable record high at the Reno airport, with about a 60% chance of at least matching the current November 10 record high of 74 degrees.

Later next week, longer range guidance continues to advertise a potential change to a more active storm pattern. The prevailing ridge appears to be holding the next storm system offshore a little longer, reducing precip chances for next Wednesday. Then from Thursday through the November 15-16 weekend, chances for precip increase, with snow levels initially quite high but then trending lower. The evolution of this storm is still several days away with wide variations in the track and timing, so confidence in more particular rain, snow and wind impacts across the region remains below average. MJD

AVIATION

Lingering west FL100/ridge top winds with gusts to 40 kt could keep areas of mountain wave turbulence going through this morning east of the Sierra. Otherwise, a longer stretch of VFR conditions and light winds is on tap today into early next week across the main terminals. The only exception is AM FZFG around KTRK which has a lower chance (less than 20%) of forming this morning due to the ridge top winds and bands of cloud cover moving overhead, but increases to above 60% each morning this weekend as the ridge builds in with fewer clouds and light winds. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.