textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions persist through late-week across the Eastern Sierra and western Nevada.

* Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon, with stronger winds possible late week.

* Shower and thunderstorm potential returns late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Broad upper-level ridging continues to build westward across the Desert Southwest, dominating the weather pattern for the REV CWA through mid-week. This will lead to a continued warming and drying trend across the region. Then, the upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward towards the Four Corners region by late week. This pattern change will allow for a return of monsoonal moisture to stream northward across the Intermountain West, including western NV.

Temperatures will gradually increase each day, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Lower valleys of western NV are forecast to reach 98-102 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. Sierra valleys and the Eastern Sierra will warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the 60s for valleys and 40s-50s for higher elevations. A gradual cooling trend is expected from Friday into the weekend and early next week. Highs will generally drop by a few degrees, returning to the mid 80s to low 90s for western Nevada valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s for the Sierra.

Afternoon and evening breezes will be typical for the region, generally 10-15 mph with localized gusts up to 25 mph. Increased potential for stronger westerly to southwesterly afternoon winds is anticipated, particularly on Friday and Saturday, as the Pacific trough approaches and height gradients tighten. NBM guidance shows afternoon gusts increasing to 30-35 mph, especially for exposed ridges and higher terrain.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will return and gradually increase from Friday into the weekend, peaking Sunday through Tuesday. The highest probabilities are currently anticipated over the Eastern Sierra and southern Mono County (20-30%). While overall probabilities remain low, the presence of monsoonal moisture and steep lapse rates suggests that any storms that do develop could at least produce gusty outflow winds and lightning.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue today and throughout this week. Increased westerly winds are expected across northeast CA and far northwest NV this afternoon with gusts up to 25kt. Otherwise, high pressure will keep the region warm and dry through late-week.

Late-week into the weekend, shower/thunderstorm chances return as high pressure pushes eastward over the four-corners region. Highest chances (~20-30%) will be in the eastern Sierra near KMMH Sun-Tues.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.