textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer conditions return for the remainder of the week.

* Dry weather prevails into the weekend, with mainly light winds except for some increased east to southeast breezes by late week.

* Showers, increased winds and colder temperatures could return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Robust ridging will build into the region from the Pacific through this week. As a result, temperatures will continue to moderate to a few degrees above seasonal averages. This setup will lead to a warmup from mid-late week, with highs peaking in the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 for Sierra communities from Friday through the weekend.

Winds will be on the lighter side through the day today, with afternoon gusts of generally 10-15 mph over western Nevada valleys and up to 20 mph across the Sierra. Thursday, an increase in winds will arrive due to an upper low that develops near southern California. Winds will mostly become easterly for Thursday, with gusts 15-20 mph mixing down to the lower valleys and up to 40+ mph across Sierra peaks. For Friday, the bulk of the wind will shift eastward, with the leeside valleys along the Sierra gusting up to 25 mph while the Sierra only gusts to 20 mph. As the low gets picked up in the westerly flow by Saturday, winds will again return to the typical afternoon gusts around 10-20 mph. By Sunday, another inbound trough will bring in more increasing winds. Gusty winds will stick around into Monday, as the trough draws nearer.

Late Monday, shower chances start to appear on the map, with the northern Sierra down to the Tahoe Basin checking in with 10-25% chances. By Tuesday morning, the wet weather chances increase, bringing 25-45% chances to the Sierra, while the Sierra Front will see chances 15-35%, higher chances over Douglas, Lyon and Mineral counties. Those increasing chances will also include snow over the Sierra, which for now is being depicted as light amounts ranging from a dusting to up to a couple inches. While yesterday's guidance had good agreement, there was a bit more spread in outcomes with today's guidance. So we will hold off on nailing down the snow totals until we get more solid evidence and less discrepancy. HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR flight conditions prevail through this week. Light winds will produce afternoon gusts 10-20 kts today. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.