textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Light to moderate snow continues into this evening with hazardous roads likely through Friday morning commute.

* Cold but quiet weather Friday through Sunday. Sub-zero wind chills in the mountains.

* Potential increasing for a warm storm with rain late Monday through Wednesday next week. Flood potential exists but specifics remain low confidence this far out.

DISCUSSION

* Ongoing snow will gradually wind down late this afternoon and this evening as associated low pressure moves eastward. Per HREF, some banded snows could produce brief periods of 0.5-1"/hour rates in W Nevada this evening, otherwise after midnight skies should partially clear with cold temperatures projected for Friday morning. Widespread teens and single digits especially in snow covered areas. Roads are likely to remain snow/ice covered for the Friday AM commute, so plan for some extra time and delays even if an advisory for new snow isn't in effect.

* Quiet but cool weekend expected Friday-Sunday with ridging building in. Saturday morning has greater potential for colder temps vs Friday AM, with clear skies expected plus that new snow cover. Near to sub-zero temps in Sierra valleys or even the Carson Valley. Wind chills will be a factor up in the Sierra especially Friday and Saturday as winds aloft don't entirely slow down, remaining NW/W/SW direction. NBM has wind chills -10 to -25F in the mornings for some of the upper elevations of the Sierra ski resorts.

* Next storm is projected late Monday through Wednesday. This one is decidedly warmer with more of an atmospheric river component per CW3E diagnostics. The IVT orientation doesn't become super favorable until Tuesday when the vectors are more W/SW. NBM indicating 7000-8000' rain-snow lines Tuesday and with an AR factor, QPF would likely be toward the mid-high end of the NBM probabilistic space - so there's potential for 2-3" rain in the mountains with 0.5 to 1" in W Nevada. This certainly introduces concern for flooding with a fresh snowpack, but at this point we're too far out to know how all these things will interact. But at this point probably not a bad idea to clean out plugged and snow blocked drains and gutters this weekend. Potential is there for rises on streams/rivers Tuesday into Wednesday but TBD on extent.

-Chris

AVIATION

* Current IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to improve, especially after 0z as low pressure causing the snow moves eastward. Can't rule out (30%) periods of IFR snow after 0z through about 3z around RTS-RNO-NFL and MMH per latest HREF guidance showing banded snow showers. Potential for another 1-2" if banding sets up just right.

* Scattered to broken IFR-MVFR clouds will persist overnight before clearing on Friday. Overall quiet weather expected through the upcoming weekend.

-Chris

AVALANCHE

* Snow rates are expected to decline this evening across the Sierra, with an additional 0.2 to 0.4" of SWE and SLRs on the higher end of the spectrum 14-17:1. Probability of 1"/hour snowfall rates also diminishes, with a token 10-20% chance along the Sierra crest through early/mid evening. Current strong W/SW winds gusting 60-80 MPH on the ridges should also decrease this evening as low pressure scoots off to the east, with gusts 20-40 MPH after midnight as direction shifts W/NW.

* Upper ridge builds in for Friday and into the weekend but winds aloft don't entirely slow down, so we'll see rather cold wind chills along the Sierra crest (down to -10 to -25F Fri & Sat AM) and mountain top gusts 30-50 MPH out of the NW/W/SW much of the weekend. Friday daytime probably has the lowest wind speeds of all three days.

-Chris

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002-003.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ071>073.