textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds overlap with low humidity for Friday and Saturday afternoons, bringing elevated fire weather and recreation concerns. * Increasing temperatures into the weekend will bring areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk for Saturday.

* A monsoon-type pattern increases potential for showers and thunderstorms next week.

DISCUSSION

Clear skies prevail over the region into the weekend, with low end potential (5-10%) afternoon cumulus development over northeastern California and northwestern Nevada that could bring a brief light shower for today. Otherwise, dry and warm will be the theme as we look at our upcoming weekend.

Recent low daytime relative humidities have dried fine fuels, making them more receptive to fire. With an increase in afternoon winds, the concern of critical fire weather conditions across northeastern California and northwestern Nevada has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Friday. See the Fire Weather section and the Red Flag Warning product for details. While the heat and lack of moisture will remain into Saturday, the overlap of gusty winds and low RH will have a shorter duration. There will still be pockets of elevated fire weather conditions lingering into Saturday. Avoid activities that may create a spark!

As mentioned above, the heat is on! For Saturday, the afternoon high temperatures across western Nevada valleys will range 99 to 106 degrees, with little overnight relief Saturday into Sunday as lows only dip to 65 to 70 degrees. This has warranted a Heat Advisory for the western Nevada Basin and Range valleys, from 11 AM Saturday through 8 AM Sunday. Make sure to take frequent, shaded rest breaks if outdoors, check in on neighbors and relatives, and make sure to look for children and pets before locking any vehicle! Also drink plenty of water, and wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing.

As we glance ahead to Sunday night into Monday morning, a moisture rich monsoonal airmass is on the move and headed our way! Model sounding PWATs across the Sierra will increase to around 0.7-0.9 inches by Monday afternoon, overtaking this dry airmass we have been enduring. As such, there will be an increasing threat for showers and storms, especially along the Sierra eastward into the Sierra Front. While locally heavy rain and flash flooding is a concern in any monsoon pattern, the gradient where the two airmasses collide may be a setup to watch for dry thunderstorms, which may increase our overall concerns for 'bolts from the blue' and new fire starts. Stay tuned to our discussions for the latest forecast. HRICH

AVIATION

* Widespread VFR across the region through this weekend with SW-W gusts 20-25 kts for the main terminals. Winds edge upward Friday-Saturday, with afternoon gusts 25-30 kts for the main terminals. HRICH/MJD

FIRE WEATHER

* Continued dry afternoons prevail into this weekend, with minimum RH values dipping to the single digits for much of western NV (down to near 5% at times along/east of US-95) and eastern Lassen County, with 10-15% for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and near the OR border. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor for much of western NV and some midslope/thermal belt regions, with maximum RH values only around 20-30%.

* SW-W flow increases over the Sierra Friday with 700 mb winds increasing to 25-30 kt. This would increase the potential for afternoon wind gusts pushing into the 30-35 mph range, producing elevated to locally critical conditions across parts of eastern Lassen/northern Washoe counties southward into the western NV Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday.

* The duration of the gusty winds/low RH meeting critical levels for Saturday still looks limited, but a few sites could see these conditions occur for more than 3 hours. MJD/HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-458.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday CAZ270-278.