textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler and breezy conditions persist through the week, with gusts reaching up to 30-35 mph today and Thursday.

* Rain chances move into NE CA and the Tahoe Basin overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with the highest chances (45-70%) Thursday afternoon and evening.

* High uncertainty remains regarding the trajectory of tropical moisture early next week, which could increase shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Meteorological fall started yesterday, and boy did it deliver! Fall-like conditions will persist through the remainder of the week with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s for lower vallyes with highs in the low to mid 60s for Sierra communities. Overnight lows start to flirt with near freezing tonight for Sierra communities, continuing through the weekend.

Today and Thursday will continue to be breezy, with widespread wind gusts of 30-35 mph. As such, the Lake Wind Advisory has been extended through 11 PM Thursday, and expanded to include lakes in Mono County (Topaz Lake, Mono Lake, Bridgeport Reservoir, and Crowley Lake). Wind prone areas along US-395, including near Honey Lake and Washoe Valley, may see gusts up to 40-45 mph both days. Impacts from wind both days will include reduced visibility from blowing dust on desert sinks and playas, increased risk for small craft capsizing due to choppy lake waters, aircraft turbulence, and difficult travel for high profile vehicles.

Rain shower chances come up starting late Wednesday night, peaking in both areal coverage and chances Thursday afternoon and evening. Shower chances will be confined to NE CA, the Tahoe Basin, and northern Washoe county, including portions of the Black Rock Desert. Foothills along the Sierra Front may also see light rain showers Thursday evening. Precipitation amounts will range from 0.02-0.25", with the higher totals expected along the Sierra crest. Storm chances remain 10% or less, though additional forcing aloft from a low pressure system to our north may prove enough to get a stray lightning strike or two. Showers may linger in the morning Friday, with drier conditions expected Saturday.

Have Labor Day weekend plans? They may or may not get a bit soggy. There's still plenty of uncertainty on the placement of Tropical Storm Marie though current model guidance highlights an increase in moisture for Sunday night. This influx of moisture may just materialize as cloudy skies, though the current forecast paints 15-20% chances for rain across the region by late Sunday night. Forecaster confidence remains very low at this time so make sure to keep up to date with the forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions today with afternoon gusts of 25-30 kts. FL100 winds of 40-50 kts will introduce LLWS and mountain wave turbulence to all Sierra and Sierra Front sites. Areas of reduced visibility from blowing dust may impact KLOL, KNFL, KHTH as well as aviation operations on the Black Rock Desert (88NV) today and Thursday.

Rain chances increase for KTRK/KTVL Thursday, which may introduce MVFR/IFR conditions due to lower CIGS/VIS. Additionally, expect mountain obscurations as early as late Wednesday night for all Sierra terminals except KMMH.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002>004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday CAZ071>073.