textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue today with temperatures 4-8 degrees above average.

* Increasing southwesterly breezes will prevail this afternoon with stronger wind gusts expected on Friday with a dry cold front, leading to elevated fire weather concerns.

* Cooler, near-normal temperatures return for the weekend, with highs dropping 5-10 degrees below average early next week.

DISCUSSION

Seasonably warm and breezy conditions will prevail this afternoon before a dry cold front results in cooler conditions with gusty winds and areas of increased fire weather concerns on Friday.

Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon with most areas seeing gusts between 20-30 mph today, creating localized fire weather concerns and choppy conditions on area lakes, especially north of US-50.

Winds will strengthen further late Thursday night into Friday as the front approaches. Ridgetop gusts could exceed 75 mph, followed by widespread southwest gusts of 30-40 mph north of US-50 Friday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity could create critical fire-weather concerns; see the Fire Weather Discussion below for details. In addition, smoke from the Dome Fire SW of Yosemite, may result in areas of smoke and haze across Mono County with moderate impacts to air quality possible.

Temperatures will cool on Friday, but will remain near season averages. The more noticeable cooldown is expected Sunday-Monday where highs may fall 5-10 degrees below average. Some colder Sierra valleys could drop below freezing Saturday morning, with freezing temperatures becoming more likely early next week.

While prospects for precipitation remains minimal over the weekend. A weak upper-level low may introduce enough instability to present a 10-20% chance for a few light rain showers or high elevation snow flurries across the high Sierra in Mono County (>9500') on Sunday. Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon with increasing W-SW wind gusts this afternoon with terminal gusts generally around 20-25 kts

Winds will continue to strengthen across the northern Sierra tonight, with FL100 winds of 40-45kts possible after midnight resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS. Surface gusts across Tahoe and W.Nevada could see gusts around 25-25kts with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. Fuentes/Justin

FIRE WEATHER

Areas of elevated fire weather concerns are possible this afternoon as wind gusts reach 25-35 mph for most areas, with afternoon RH falling to 10-15%. Isolated areas may experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions, mainly along the Sierra Front, far northwest Nevada, and northeast California.

The strongest winds are expected Friday afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Southwest gusts of 30-40 mph are most likely north of US-50, while wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum RH will increase slightly Friday, particularly across NE California and far N.Washoe County where the Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled due to these higher RH, but W.Nevada areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings due lower RH expected. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002>004.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-421.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073.