textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* A system will bring cooler temperatures with highs dropping between 5 to 10 degrees below average by Sunday and Monday.
* 20-50% chance for rain and light high elevation snow showers (>9,000') across the eastern Sierra and western Nevada Sunday night into Monday afternoon.
* Ridge returns to the area Tuesday, leading to a warming and drying trend through next weekend.
DISCUSSION
The system that produced strong winds across the region on Friday has moved into the northern Rockies. We are under a near-zonal flow aloft today with calm conditions and normal temperatures for the last week of September. Winds will remain a bit breezy this afternoon, with gusts between 20-25 mph for most locations and 40-45 mph for the Sierra ridges.
By Sunday and Monday, another low pressure system will move into the region. The first impact from this system will be a 20-50% chance for precipitation for much of western NV starting late Sunday into late Monday. Precipitation amounts in western NV are light, with a 15-30% chance for at least 0.10" of rain.
The eastern Sierra will also have a 20-50% chance for precipitation during this timeframe, mostly impacting the Tahoe Basin southward into Mono County. Snow levels with this system will drop to between 8,500-9,000 feet, where there still is a low 10-20% chance for at least 1" of snow above 9,500 feet in Mono County. Overall precipitation amounts are also light, with a 30-50% chance for at least 0.10" of liquid.
Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be on the cool side, with highs around 5-10 degrees below average by Monday with highs in the low 70s across western NV with mid-60s for Sierra valleys. Also, Sierra valleys on Monday and Tuesday morning have likely chances for below freezing temperatures.
Long term ensembles show high pressure returning to the region Tuesday onward. This will lead to a warming trend, with above normal temperatures by Wednesday into next weekend. We look dry during this timeframe. -McKellar
AVIATION
Surface winds from the SW around 10-15kts with gusts of 20-25kts are expected at all area terminals this afternoon and evening. FL100 winds remain elevated around 30-35kts from the SW through the morning, resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. -McKellar
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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