textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS AND RECENT HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE LINGERING TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

* FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS. * AFTER A BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA, ONGOING LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS SIERRA PASSES. AS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT, MANY LOCATIONS HAD BRIEF SUN TODAY THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR MELTING OF EXISTING SNOW AND ICE ON AREA ROADS. THIS HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED ROAD TRAVEL FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE AGAIN TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WET PATCHES AND PUDDLES TO REFREEZE. SO WITH THAT IN MIND, KEEP YOUR WINTER DRIVING SKILLS SHARP AS WE LOOK TO THURSDAY'S NEW SYSTEM.

THE MAIN TROUGH THAT CONTAINED THE RECENT UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WE JUST PUNTED TO THE EAST, HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LOW LOBE THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE AREA, AND THUS KEEPING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS, SNOW RATES AND AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE RECENT SYSTEM. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SNOWY TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT. LEESIDE CITIES OF RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4" OF FRESH SNOW. SIERRA COMMUNITIES OF VIRGINIA CITY COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 8" OF NEW SNOW, WHILE THE TAHOE BASIN COULD SEE 8 TO 12". LOOKING ABOVE 7000 FEET, TO INCLUDE DONNER PASS, ANOTHER 12 TO 18 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OUT OF THIS NEXT STORM.

NOW FOR THE BOOM/BUST SCENARIOS... WHICH ARE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND SOUTH, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SHORT-LIVED TONOPAH- LIKE LOW. THE MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS THE AREAS OF MINERAL AND LYON COUNTY THAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING 2 TO 4" OF SNOW MAY SEE A BOOST OF A COUPLE INCHES. STILL, THIS KEEPS A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE PINENUT MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH A ROGUE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW COULD DEPOSIT MORE. MANY SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE UPPER LOW TRACK TO TRAVEL MORE EASTWARD THAN SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, WHICH WOULD BOOST TOTALS OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE INSTEAD. IN THAT CASE, AREAS SUCH AS FERNLEY AND FALLON COULD ACQUIRE A FRESH 3" OF SNOW. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW TRACK CAREFULLY TONIGHT.

ONE THING IS CERTAIN, A BREAK IN THE STORM TRACK IS ON THE HORIZON FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME FOR CLEAN UP HAS BEEN SCHEDULED, SO TAKE ADVANTAGE AND CLEAR THE STORM DRAINS, WALKWAYS AND OVERHANGS!

AND... THAT WAS SHORT... HERE COMES ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT WARMER, WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. IF THIS MATERIALIZES, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH RAIN ON SNOW IN THE VALLEYS, WHICH COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. DETAILS WILL EMERGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. HRICH

P.S. ALL CAPS WAS NOT INTENTIONAL, AND WAS A SYSTEM ERROR. BUT, I SCREAM, YOU SCREAM, WE ALL SCREAM FOR MORE SNOW?

AVIATION

* ONGOING SIERRA SNOW SHOWERS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT, WITH KMMH SEEING A 70% CHANCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES THROUGH SUNSET THURSDAY. KMMH MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT, WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR THAT AMOUNT. KTRK AND KTVL HAVE AN 85% CHANCE TO SEE UP TO 6 INCHES BY SUNSET THURSDAY, WITH 20% CHANCES OF UP TO 12 INCHES.

* THE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS STARTS TONIGHT BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF 2 TO 4" OF RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE SNOW ARRIVING AROUND 11-12Z, PEAKING BETWEEN 17-22Z, AND ENDING BY 04Z. * WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 70 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AFTER 00Z TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z THURSDAY. HRICH

AVALANCHE

LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, THOUGH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 4" OF NEW SNOW). ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

* SNOWFALL TOTALS AND RATES: FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM, 6-12" WITH LOCALLY UP TO 18" ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE TAHOE BASIN. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR, BUT MAY EXCEED 1"/HR IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.

* SLRS AND SWE: LOW CONFIDENCE ON SLRS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM, BEST GUESS 13-15:1 RATIOS. SLRS MAY DROP TO 12:1 OR STAY AROUND 16:1, AS SEEN WITH THIS PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. SWE RANGES FROM 0.5-1", THOUGH 1" WILL MOSTLY BE SEEN ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE TAHOE BASIN.

* RIDGETOP GUSTS: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 50-60 MPH THURSDAY WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

-GIRALTE/HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday NVZ002- 003.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday CAZ071>073.