textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with typical afternoon breezes on Sunday.

* Increasing south to southwest winds may elevate fire concerns and pose impacts to recreation and travel Monday into Tuesday.

* Chances of rain and mountain snow increases around the middle of next week, but confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

A warm and dry weather pattern will remain in place through the weekend, with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s each day. Nights will be mild for most areas, but cold-prone Sierra valleys will continue to be chilly as temperatures fall to the twenties each night. Light winds prevail today with high pressure overhead, then typical afternoon breezes return Sunday in response to a trough passage to our north.

Winds are still expected to increase on Monday as an upper trough deepens in the eastern Pacific. S/SW gusts are favored to reach 25- 35 mph across NE California and far W Nevada in the afternoon. Meanwhile, ridgetops winds are expected to gust to 50-70 mph at times Monday into Tuesday. Potential wind impacts include choppy waters on lakes in this area -- including Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake -- and turbulent flights. A few hours of near-critical fire weather conditions are also likely across lower elevations from NE California into NW Nevada. Gusty winds shift to S Mono and Mineral counties on Tuesday with lighter winds elsewhere.

Beyond Monday, the upper trough evolves into a closed low off the California coast before finally pivoting through the region late in the week. Chances of rain and mountain snow increase between Tuesday and Thursday as a result, but a lack of consistency and agreement on the trough progression lends to a lower confidence forecast for next week. Tuesday is trending drier as the upper low tracks slower and farther offshore, favoring Wednesday and Thursday as the wettest days of the week. Areas south of I-80 have the best chances (50-80%) for rain and mountain snow, with higher uncertainty north of Tahoe/Reno. There may also be minor snow impacts to travel along higher Sierra passes in Mono County where there is 50-70% chance of 4" or more of total snowfall between Wednesday and Thursday. Much cooler temperatures arrive next week with highs lowering from the 60s and 70s on Sunday to the 40s and 50s by Thursday. Nights also become chilly for most areas as the week progresses.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions prevail through the weekend with light winds today becoming typical west breezes Sunday afternoon. Increasing S/SW winds are expected on Monday, which may introduce LLWS and mountain wave turbulence concerns.

-Salad

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.