textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday, with highs around 5 to 10 degrees above normal and areas of Moderate HeatRisk across warmer lower valleys.

* Southwest to west breezes increase today and Friday, with the strongest winds expected Saturday.

* Elevated fire weather concerns develop today and Friday, with a more widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather threat Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Warm and Dry Through Friday:

* Low-amplitude ridging over CA/NV will maintain a warm and very dry air mass through Friday. Highs will generally reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for western NV valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s for Sierra communities. Friday remains the warmest day, with mid 90s possible along portions of the US-95 corridor, supporting a greater extent of Moderate HeatRisk across west- central NV.

Increasing Winds Today and Friday:

* Weak shortwaves brushing the Pacific Northwest will tighten the surface pressure gradient at times, bringing increased southwest to west winds this afternoon and again Friday. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected across portions of northeast CA, the Sierra, and western NV, strongest in typical wind-prone areas. Impacts remain minor but may include choppy lakes, aviation turbulence, and brief fire weather concerns where fuels are receptive.

Stronger Winds Saturday, Then Cooler:

* The main Pacific trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern CA/NV Saturday, bringing the strongest gradient and deepest mixing of the forecast period. Widespread southwest-west gusts of 30-40 mph are favored, with locally higher gusts in wind-prone corridors along US-395/I-580, US-95, and the eastern Sierra. Temperatures cool back toward early June averages Sunday into early next week. Dry conditions prevail through at least Sunday, with only low shower chances returning Tuesday-Wednesday, generally 10-20% near the Sierra/northeast CA and 5-15% across western NV.

-Johnston

AVIATION

* VFR conditions prevail with no meaningful CIG/VIS restrictions expected. The main aviation concern will be southwest to west winds this afternoon-evening, with terminal gusts generally 20-30 kt, except somewhat lighter at KTVL. FL100 winds near 30-35 kt will support turbulence and localized LLWS along and east of the Sierra.

* Winds ease Thursday, then increase again Friday afternoon with similar gust magnitudes to today. Saturday remains the higher- impact aviation period, with widespread southwest-west gusts of 25- 35 kt and locally stronger gusts possible. Expect increased mountain wave/mechanical turbulence, crosswind concerns, and periods of LLWS near and east of the Sierra.

-Johnston

FIRE WEATHER

* Warm and very dry conditions through Friday will maintain very large afternoon vapor pressure deficits (40-50 hPa), especially across western NV lower valleys where RH falls into the single digits and teens. This will continue to dry fine fuels, with localized elevated fire weather concerns today and Friday where SW-W gusts of 25-35 mph overlap receptive grasses and brush.

* Saturday remains the primary concern as the strongest winds arrive after several days of drying. Southwest-west gusts over 35 mph are likely across much of western NV and portions of eastern CA, with minimum RH generally 8-15% in lower valleys. Longer critical wind/RH overlap supports elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions where fuels are sufficiently cured.

-Johnston

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.