textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain and mountain snow chances gradually taper off from west to east by this afternoon, followed by a chilly night.

* Monday will be warmer and drier, with a return of increased winds and showers on Tuesday.

* Dry weather is favored for the second half of the week, with a potential return of unsettled weather around Veterans Day.

DISCUSSION

The latest radar returns this morning show rain and mountain snow continuing generally along and east of a line from Doyle, CA to Gerlach, NV this morning with portions to the east being mostly dry. For today, the latest model guidance depicts an upper trough moving over central NV by this afternoon and departing to the east tonight. As the upper trough moves through the region, the 06Z run of the RRFS model shows the current 60-90% precipitation chances in the region gradually tapering from west to east by this afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory continues for elevated portions of the Tahoe Region and Mono County through 7 AM PST (remember to change your clocks if needed in case you haven't already) when bulk of the snowfall is expected to end. Snow levels in the Tahoe region by the late morning look to be around 5500-6000 ft while Mono County sees ~6000-7000 ft so any lingering precipitation would be snow if not a rain/snow mix in these areas. Please use caution if traveling as roads in these areas can be slick due to the recent snowfall. The RRFS also shows a ~20-40% chances for some isolated showers to linger in Alpine and Mono Counties as well as in the NV Basin and Range, but they will diminish by 5-6 PM. QPF values for the remainder of this morning through afternoon for areas that see showers range from a trace up to around 0.2 inches. Additional snowfall totals look to range between a trace to around 2 inches at the highest peaks in Mono County. While dry conditions are expected tonight, chilly overnight temperatures (mid-20s to lower 30s for W NV and lower teens to lower 20s for Sierra communities) are in forecast due to the decreasing cloud cover allowing for more cooling.

For Monday, forecast guidance shows an upper ridge moving over the area briefly, allowing for dry conditions to persist and temperatures to increase a bit. Daytime high temperatures on Monday range between the mid to upper 50s in the W NV valleys and between the lower to mid-50s in Sierra communities. Another upper trough then moves through the region on Tuesday, which will cause winds to increase during the day, especially for Sierra ridges (gusts up to between 70-80 mph in the afternoon). Precipitation chances (20-40%) also return to the Northern Sierra and in eastern Pershing and Churchill Counties during the afternoon and evening, though not much moisture is in the forecast (a trace up to around 0.1 inches of QPF is forecast). Snow levels in the Tahoe region will between 7000-7500 ft, but not anticipating much accumulation if any at this time. Lingering precipitation chances in the eastern Pershing and Churchill Counties then taper off by early Wednesday morning.

Ensemble guidance shows the upper trough departing on Wednesday with a flattened upper ridge moving over region behind it. This ridge strengthens a bit going into next weekend, signaling temperatures taking a warming trend with dry conditions prevailing during the latter half of the week. Longer term guidance has mild and dry weather continuing into the following week, but hints (with great uncertainty this far out) at a possible return of wetter weather around Veterans Day. -078

AVIATION

Rain and mountain snow showers continue this morning through the region with the exception of portions in NE CA and northern Washoe County. These precipitation chances will begin to gradually taper off from east to west later this morning before ending late this afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV through around 01/16Z. Sierra snow showers will cause MVFR-IFR conditions to continue for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH through 01/16Z as well with KMMH seeing a ~30% chance of a lingering isolated shower until 02/00Z. After the precipitation chances end, cloud cover expects to decrease with VFR conditions prevailing across the region.

Dry conditions are expected on Monday, followed by increased Sierra ridge winds and precipitation chances in the forecast on Tuesday. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning CAZ072-073.