textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry conditions continue today, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal and areas of Moderate HeatRisk across lower valleys.

* West breezes increase today with brief elevated fire concerns. Stronger winds and higher fire risk is expected Saturday.

* Some cooling returns this weekend, with temperatures near or slightly below early June averages Sunday through much of next week. Gusty winds and shower chances may also return next week.

DISCUSSION

Enhanced zephyr breezes are expected this afternoon across the region with widespread gusts of 20-30 mph and isolated pockets of up to 35 mph in western NV. Conditions will be marginal for lake wind advisories today, however lakes out in western NV may become choppy in the afternoon. Today will also hold the warmest temperatures for at least the next 6 days, before a cooling trend commences this weekend. High temps in west central NV will approach 95-97 degrees, and 90-93 degrees in northeast CA and along the Sierra Front. Sierra valleys are expected to see temperatures into the low 80s, and those near Chalfant Valley will be approaching 100 degrees again today. Pockets of Moderate HeatRisk and widespread Minor HeatRisk will also be prevalent across western NV valleys today. With the gusty winds and widespread RH less than 15% this afternoon, there will be a few hours of isolated elevated-locally critical fire weather conditions in western NV and northeast CA.

A large upper level trough located over the Pacific Northwest and its accompanied slow-moving cold front are what will increase winds further on Saturday. Tight pre-frontal pressure gradients in far western NV are driving wind gusts up to 45 mph, though northeast CA and western NV are more likely to see 35-40 mph. As such, we have opted to issue Lake Wind Advisories for western NV and Mono County Saturday morning through evening. More widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday for the aforementioned areas, as up to 9-10 hours of Red Flag conditions are very possible.

Temperatures start to cool off Saturday, then continue to cool off through mid-week as a deeper low pushes farther south. Temperatures bottom out close to average for this time of year, if not a few degrees below average next week. Highs across western NV valleys will be in the mid 70s, and low 60s in the Sierra. Some variation in the models exists as to how far south the low will move, leading to conflicting potential for rain early next week. As it stands this morning, precip chances of 20-40% begin Monday and continue through Tuesday, then decrease to 10-15% by Wednesday. There will also be an uptick in the winds early next week as well when this low drops in, though because of the higher RH, there is less of a concern for critical fire conditions. Models are hinting at a rather robust ridge moving in at the end of next week, bringing temperatures back up to above average for next weekend.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail today and Saturday with no chances for precipitation. Main concern will be increasing SW-W winds each afternoon, with gusts 20-25 kt today and near 30 kt Saturday. FL100 winds out of the west at 30-35 kt may cause areas of turbulence and crosswinds over the Sierra and Sierra Front on Saturday.

-Justin

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated to brief periods of near critical conditions are expected today, where westerly gusts of 25-35 mph overlap receptive grasses and brush over western NV and portions of eastern Lassen/Plumas counties.

Saturday remains the primary concern as the strongest winds arrive after several days of drying. Westerly gusts over 35 mph are likely across much of western NV and portions of eastern CA, with minimum RH generally 9-16% in lower valleys. Longer critical wind/RH overlap supports up to 9-10 hours of Red Flag conditions across western NV and into eastern Lassen County. A fire weather watch remains in effect for Saturday from 11 AM to 11 PM.

-HC/Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ420-423-429-458.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001-004.

Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ003.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening CAZ278.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ073.