textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of increased breezes will pose minor impacts to aviation and recreation through this evening.

* Dry weather prevails through most of the week with warmer than normal daytime temperatures.

* A wetter and windier pattern continues to be delayed. Could see increased winds as early as Friday, with precipitation moving in Saturday.

DISCUSSION

A weak trough quickly passing through Oregon with produce breezy west to southwest winds in northeast CA, northern Washoe County, and along the ridges from the Tahoe area northward. Expect ridgetop gusts up to 35-45 mph, and gusts between 15-25 mph in northeast California and northern Washoe County. Gusts in the rest of the area should remain between 10-20 mph. This weak trough is moisture starved, so the most we will get is an increase in high level cloud cover. Temperatures remain upwards of 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

Once this weak system passes through, an upper level ridge will amplify across the western U.S. through Thursday. During this timeframe, temperatures remain upwards of 5 to 10 degrees above average, with light winds throughout the region. While this ridge is dominating the pattern, a large scale trough in the northeast Pacific splits in two. This results in a closed upper low moving south towards southern California, with a larger deep trough in the northern Pacific.

We have been a broken record the last 2-3 days discussing the longer-term uncertainties in the forecast for this weekend. Ensembles and models have struggled with the evolution of the upper pattern, especially the larger deep trough in the northeastern Pacific. Some ensembles and model solutions are completely dry through Sunday, while others start the onset of precipitation as early as Friday. To further illustrate this uncertainty, the NBM 25th to 75th percentiles for 24 hour precipitation ending Sunday morning for the Tahoe Basin north into western Lassen County varies from 0 to 1.5 inches. But one thing to note, the chances of precipitation by Saturday evening through Sunday are likely (>60%) for the region. Will we see precipitation by this weekend? Chances are saying yes. How much will fall is still murky at this time. Winds in this period will increase throughout the region (especially eastern Sierra) and temperatures will once again fall to below average by the weekend. -McKellar

AVIATION

* KRNO: VFR conditions with gusts up to 15 kts today, otherwise light winds through at least Thursday. Valley inversions continue each morning, reducing slantwise visibilities.

* Elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals with light winds. Ridgetop gusts of 30-40 kts may bring minor turbulence and LLWS, primarily north of the Tahoe Basin.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.