textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Expect a nice travel window through Sunday night with dry, clearing skies.

* A weaker storm brings mountain snow and valley rain late Sunday night into Monday.

* A stronger, colder storm midweek could drop heavy Sierra snow down to western Nevada valley floors.

DISCUSSION

Good travel conditions over Sierra passes continue through Sunday afternoon as the next storm sets up to arrive Sunday night. Light rain could start as early as Sunday afternoon for northeast California, with snow holding off until Sunday night over Sierra passes.

Sunday Night into Monday:

* Snow develops in the Tahoe Basin late Sunday evening, peaking Monday morning with snowfall rates up to 1" per hour for elevations above 7000 feet. The snow band will shift south by Monday afternoon, sliding over Mono County. The band will weaken as it moves south, however, lingering snow showers could keep roads slick into the Monday evening commute.

* Valleys get light rain, with rain spreading eastward toward US-95 Monday afternoon. Amounts will be light, generally under 0.25" inches. A brief period on Monday evening may feature snowflakes mixing in down to 5500 feet, but no accumulations are expected.

Tuesday:

* A break in the action with a cold morning. Lows will start the day in the teens across the Sierra and in the 20s in western Nevada valleys. Highs will top out in the 40s for most locations. The dry weather will offer another travel break through Tuesday night, when the next storm is set to arrive.

Tuesday Night into Thursday:

* Winds begin to increase late Tuesday, first along the ridges, then overspreading into western Nevada valleys by daybreak Wednesday. Ridges could see gusts to 70+ mph with valley gusts to 25 mph Wednesday morning.

* Expect significant Sierra snow and valley rain Wednesday through Thursday. Early forecasts have suggested 1-2 feet of fresh snowfall along the Sierra Crest, with around 6-9 inches for the Tahoe Basin. Snow levels have been forecasted to drop to 4500-5000 feet by Thursday, which may bring the season's first snow to the Reno-Carson City-Minden valleys.

Friday and Beyond:

* Friday will be chilly with the deeper trough digging and leaving behind a cold air mass overhead. High temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages as lingering mountain showers persist through Friday evening. A slow warmup will take us into the weekend, as dry conditions take over.

* The storm door is open, and there are indications more storms will approach around the Thanksgiving holiday travel timeframe.

HRICH

AVIATION

* KRNO... VFR through Sunday. Southwest ridge winds increase Sunday morning, with gusts along ridges of 40-45 mph bringing turbulence and LLWS. Winds will become southerly into the evening, around 00Z Monday.

* Regional Outlook through Sunday... Mostly VFR with patchy freezing fog possible for KTRK on Sunday morning, if we can realize a break in cloud cover. Ridge gusts of 40-45 mph along Sierra ridges will introduce turbulence, mountain waves and LLWS. * 24-72 Hour Outlook... Valley rain and mountain snow are expected to lower visibility to IFR at KTRK/KTVL Monday morning, reaching KMMH by Monday late afternoon. Western Nevada terminals will remain mostly VFR. Ridge gusts will approach 55 kts Sunday night, easing as the main band of showers approaches by Monday morning. * VFR conditions return areawide for Tuesday, although some early morning freezing fog cannot be ruled out for KTRK.

HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM PST Monday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM PST Monday CAZ072.