textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Colder today with rain and mountain snow producing winter travel impacts for the eastern Sierra.

* A slight 10-20% chance for additional thunderstorms continue through the afternoon.

* Periods of gusty winds this afternoon for western NV, eastern Lassen County, and east of the crests in Mono County.

DISCUSSION

* As of 1:30 AM PDT, heavy snow continues in the eastern Sierra with rates of around 2"/hour. Rain along with snow to as low as 5,000 ft is also observed in western NV. Per latest high- resolution model guidance, the primary band of precipitation will exit the Tahoe Basin by around 3-5 AM, then eventually Mono County by around 5-7 AM. Spillover precipitation will continue across the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas through around 4-5 AM, and the inner-basin and ranges through 7-8 AM.

* Snow showers will likely (>70%) persist all day in the Sierra, with likely (60%) rates around 0.5-1"/hour. With the main cold low moving overhead, instability will increase this afternoon. Latest HREF/Hi-Res models show lapse rates of 7-8C/km advecting into the region, with SBCAPES in the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys of ~250-500 J/kg. As such, we can't rule out snowfall rates up to 2-3"/hour in heavier convective thunderstorms that move into the Sierra this afternoon. There is also a low (20%) chance for lightning today. We're looking at additional snow totals of 12-14", with locally up to 18" along the highest peaks in heavier snow showers.

* For western NV, eastern Lassen County, and Mono County east of the crests, the HREF and high-resolution models show that today will be mostly precipitation shadowed, with a slight 20-30% chance of showers. Southwest winds will increase this afternoon in these aforementioned areas, with gusts up to 35-45 mph.

* A majority of the precipitation comes to an end later this evening. But, there remains a 30-50% chance for leftover showers through Monday afternoon in the Sierra primarily from the Tahoe Basin south into Mono County. * We'll see a brief warmup Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near mid-April averages before another fast moving storm drops into the region. We can expect increasing winds, valley rain and mountain snow showers, followed by cooler than average temperatures through late next week. -McKellar

AVIATION

* FL100 S-SW wind gusts to 50-60 kt today, resulting in widespread turbulence and periods of LLWS especially through tonight. Surface wind gusts at main terminals near 30 kt this afternoon.

* Snow rates of 0.5-1"/hour, producing IFR/LIFR conditions, with spotty additional accumulations of 1-4" for Sierra terminals. We cannot rule out heavier snow rates of 2-3"/hour in convective snow showers.

* Western NV terminals will primarily be rain, but could see some snow mix with rain this morning, producing MVFR/brief IFR conditions. Chances for any runway snow accumulation are less than 10% at KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. Isolated rain/snow/pellet showers return this afternoon-early evening with brief MVFR periods. -McKellar

AVALANCHE

Moderate to heavy snow will continue to impact all avalanche center terrain through Sunday evening.

* Snow totals, levels, and rates: Additional snow totals of 12-14", with locally up to 18" along the highest peaks in BAC terrain. Snow levels as of this writing are around 5000 ft, but are expected to rise to ~5500 ft this afternoon. Snowfall rates peak early this morning with rates of 2-3"/hr until about sunrise. Otherwise, rates of 0.5-1.5"/hr (highest for SAC terrain). Any convective-type snow bands that form could have rates up to 2-3"/hr.

* SLRs and SWE: SLRs of 11-13:1 today, locally up to 15:1. Additional SWE (50th percentile) of 1-1.5", locally lower of 0.75-1.25" for ESAC terrain.

* Thunder potential and wind gusts: 20-25% chance of thunder along the crest today, mainly this afternoon. Southwest wind gusts of 60- 80 mph today.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ071.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ072-073.