textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A cool start to the week will be followed by a gradual warming trend accompanied by generally dry conditions and lighter winds.

* An upper level low will drop into northern CA and NV Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in cooler temperatures, increased breezes, and low chances for showers near the Oregon border.

* Dry and warmer conditions with lighter winds are likely to return for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

After a chilly start this morning, light northeast to east winds will limit heating in lower elevations despite plenty of sun, with highs generally in the 70s for most valley and Sierra sites. Similar fall-like lows in the 40s for most lower elevations and 30s or even upper 20s for Sierra valleys return tonight.

The main weather highlight for this week will be a weak closed low pressure system dropping southward from the Pacific NW coast. For Tuesday, no significant weather impacts are anticipated, other than a return of typical zephyr-type breezes (gusts up to 25 mph) in the afternoon, leading to a warmup to the lower-mid 80s for most lower elevations.

Then for Wednesday-Thursday, the low is projected to reach its southernmost extent with the center meandering from near the north CA coast to far northern NV. Latest guidance still presents varied tracks for this system, but the most likely scenario would bring a 10-15% chance of light rain showers from late Wednesday through Thursday across northeast CA-northwest NV. The remainder of eastern CA-western NV is looking at continued dry conditions with an upward trend in winds, which could lead to short periods of elevated fire weather concerns. Current blended guidance indicates about 25-50% chance for peak gusts of at least 30 mph Wednesday afternoon, except up to 70% chance around Mammoth Lakes. These breezy winds could continue through Thursday afternoon, depending on the eventual track of the low. Some cooling will also result from this low, with highs retreating to the 70s in most lower elevations and upper 60s near the Sierra by Thursday.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a high pressure ridge is projected to return across CA-NV, resulting in warmer temperatures returning (highs in the 80s for lower elevations/70s near the Sierra), lighter winds and continued dry conditions. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail for the upcoming week, with lighter NE-E winds (gusts below 20 kt) at the main terminals today. By Tuesday afternoon, west winds return (except S-SW for KTRK/KTVL), with gusts near 20 kt. Wind gusts may increase further to near 25 kt with areas of turbulence by Wednesday afternoon, as a weak low pressure drops into northern CA. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.