textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Typical July heat continues into next week with breezy afternoon winds posing minor fire and recreation impacts.

* Mostly dry through next week with low chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon into early next week.

* Hotter temperatures and increasing heat risk possible late next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Western US ridging will maintain typical July heat through the holiday weekend with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for Sierra communities and 90s for lower elevations each afternoon through Sunday. These temperatures will support widespread minor HeatRisk with moderate HeatRisk spreading into lower W NV valleys--partly due to nighttime lows near the mid 60s. Otherwise, winds will remain breezy each afternoon, posing minor fire and recreation impacts.

This afternoon features a low probability (10-15%) of showers and thunderstorms, but a more subsident mid-level flow should keep any showers/storms isolated and confined to the Sierra and near the Oregon border. Shower and isolated thunderstorm potential increases somewhat on Sunday in response to weak low pressure lifting through northern California. Areas closer to the low (i.e., from Tahoe-Reno northward to the Oregon border) have the best chance of light showers or perhaps a stray lightning strike. Better thunderstorm potential resides across the Surprise Valley and N Washoe County where instability is greatest.

Deepening of an eastern Pacific trough will reintroduce southwesterly flow next week, extending very warm, dry, and breezy weather through the middle of next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the afternoons early next week before drier air filters in and precludes shower/storm formation from mid to late week. Looking ahead, ensembles continue to show strong high pressure expanding across the Four Corners states late next week into next weekend. This pattern tends to result in a period of hot temperatures, and monsoonal moisture intrusions with increasing thunderstorm activity. There is higher confidence in the former as daytime highs are slated to flirt with 90F near the Sierra and 100F for lower elevations from Thursday onward. The latter is much more uncertain at this extended range, but worth keeping a close eye on as we head to mid-July.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions prevail today with only a 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms near KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. Mid to high cloud coverage will increase Sunday with low chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms at Tahoe and Sierra Front terminals. Otherwise, expect light morning winds to become breezy each afternoon with typical west gusts of 20-25 kts.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.