textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Bands of rain and mountain snow, with a few thunderstorms and pellet showers, continue through Thursday night. Snow may impact travel over mountain passes.

* Very cool today with highs only in the 40s and 50s. After a modest warmup Thursday and Friday, further warming arrives this weekend, with highs returning to the 80s by the start of June.

* Mainly dry conditions with typical afternoon breezes are expected this weekend through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Most of the gusty winds have decreased across the region, although high resolution guidance has been consistent in showing one more push of increased northwest winds over Pyramid Lake from around daybreak through mid-morning. We'll keep the remaining Lake Wind Advisories going through their current expiration times (5 AM for Walker Lake, 11 AM for Pyramid Lake).

Current radar loop shows a broad area of steady light to moderate rain over west central NV, with additional bands of showers across parts of northeast CA and western NV mainly north and east of Reno. Through the remainder of this morning, additional precip bands are likely to rotate around the main low as it drifts southward from the Tahoe basin to Mono County. Meanwhile, a secondary circulation over west central NV is projected to track westward to the Reno-Tahoe region through this afternoon. The overall result will be a very cool and soggy day over most of eastern CA-western NV with highs only in the 40s and 50s. Some of the showers that pop up this afternoon could contain a few lightning strikes and produce small hail/graupel pellets.

Snow levels near 6000 feet this morning could bring minor travel impacts around the Tahoe region, although most roads below pass level should remain wet. For the main passes (Donner/Echo summits), a bit of slush may be present if a heavier shower moves through, with up to an inch or two of snowfall for higher passes such as Mt. Rose Summit through the mid-morning. For Alpine/Mono County passes, today's best snow chances arrive this afternoon and evening, with potential 1-4" accumulations for the higher elevations (Ebbetts, Sonora, Tioga, Mammoth Mountain).

The upper low continues to meander over CA/NV through tonight and Thursday. Additional shower bands are expected, with the best coverage favoring the eastern Sierra and western NV south of US-50 based on the model consensus for the main upper low's track across the southern Sierra, and eventually across southern/eastern NV. The same higher Sierra crest passes in Alpine/Mono counties are on track to receives another round of light snowfall (1-4") Thursday afternoon-evening. For this entire precip event across eastern CA and western NV, confidence is quite high (90+%) for wetting rainfall of at least 0.10" (has already occurred for much of northeast CA, and northwest-west central NV). Many locations should receive liquid totals between 0.20-0.60", with near 1" in a few sites where steady precip or heavier shower bands persist for a longer duration.

As the low departs Friday, lingering showers and isolated thunder remain on the table mainly north of US-50, while on Saturday a weaker shortwave trough brushing across northern CA/NV could kick off a few additional showers or storms mainly in the afternoon. The warming trend will become more pronounced as we get to the weekend, with 70s returning to lower elevations and 60s for Sierra communities. Further warming is expected as May transitions to June, with highs returning to the 80s for lower elevations/70s near the Sierra, while dry conditions and typical PM breezes prevail. MJD

AVIATION

Widespread terrain obscuration can be expected with thicker coverage of lower clouds today, with periods of rain producing MVFR conditions mainly for the Tahoe area and western NV terminals. KTVL/KTRK could see brief IFR with a rain-snow mix especially this morning. For KMMH, the best precip chances arrive by late afternoon and evening. Additional periods of showers continue through Thursday, with the best chances shifting to KMMH during the afternoon and evening. Generally light winds are expected through Thursday, although brief gusts to 20 kt could accompany the showers especially during the afternoon hours. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning NVZ001.

Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning NVZ004.

CA...None.