textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm and dry weather prevails this weekend.

* Gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow return next week with impacts to recreation and travel possible.

* Warmer and drier weather returns by next weekend with gusty NE ridgetop winds Friday.

DISCUSSION

Broad high pressure will maintain dry weather with unseasonably warm -- potentially record-breaking -- temperatures through the weekend. Daytime highs today and Sunday will reach the upper 60s for Sierra communities and upper 70s for NE CA/W NV valleys. This warmth will also encourage typical afternoon breezes this weekend.

An eastward shift in high pressure will allow Pacific troughs to reach the western states, introducing cooler, wetter, and windier conditions to the region next week. Gusty winds and light showers arrive on Monday as a weak low passes to the north in concert with an elongated low approaching from the west. Wind impacts to recreation and air/ground travel will be of greatest concern on Monday given that showers will light with best chances of 20-50% confined to areas near the Oregon border.

The prospect of rain and mountain snow improves Tuesday when large scale ascent overspreads the region. Shower chances increase and expand southward in response, with best chances (70-80%) along the Sierra and near the Oregon border. Snow levels will remain in the 7500-8500' range Tuesday, limiting snowfall to the higher terrain. After a brief lull Tuesday night into Wednesday AM, shower activity will be reinvigorated by a compact upper low and attendant cold front passage late Wednesday and Thursday. Snow levels are favored to lower below Sierra passes by early Thursday, which may result in some travel disruptions. Snowfall is leaning on the lighter side as this storm continues to trend drier, but Tahoe passes like Donner and Carson have 45-55% chance of 4" or more by Friday AM. Winds are also favored to be strongest Wednesday afternoon and perhaps into Wednesday night, renewing impacts to recreation and travel.

We begin to dry out Friday as high pressure replaces the upper low, although some gusty NE winds will be possible along Sierra ridges. Another weekend of warm and dry weather looks likely as high pressure settles overhead.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions and typical west breezes each afternoon will prevail this weekend. A transition to a more unsettled weather pattern next week will increase the potential for reduced CIGS/VIS and LLWS/mountain wave turbulence impacts.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.