textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry but colder weather prevails this weekend with potential for freezing fog in the Sierra.

* Quiet weather with morning inversions leading to air stagnation is expected next week over western NV valleys.

* There is potential for the next storm system on New Years Day through the weekend, but the system looks weak compared to the last one.

DISCUSSION

A few light rain and snow showers continue in the Sierra and NE CA as of 2 AM this morning per radar. This activity is expected to dwindle over the next few hours as the upper trough responsible for the weather over the last few days slowly leaves the region. A few stray showers could be possible today associated to that system, but any rain/snow accumulations will be minimal or nothing at all. Also freezing fog is likely, mainly over Sierra valleys this morning, once the skies clear out.

In the wake of this system, we will have cold weather through the weekend as a northerly flow advects cold air towards northern NV/CA. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below average through early next week. Therefore, expect cold mornings and chilly afternoons. As the upper ridge moves slowly inland next week, temperatures rise to seasonal on Tue/Wed, above average by Thursday. So, we will get to enjoy some mild temperatures for the end of the year. Furthermore, the quiet weather will increase the chances for morning inversions leading to stagnant air early next week.

The next system is forecast to arrive sometime around or after New Year's Day. The models have diverging solutions with some showing a more progressive solution, while others are taking their time pushing this system into the Great Basin. The intensity of the system also vastly changes among ensemble and deterministic members of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC. However, the trend that can be seen is wetter and cooler conditions along with potential for gusty winds. It also appears that this system is looking weaker than the one that affected us this past Christmas. We will know more as we get better data over the next few days.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected across most of the area. However, there will be a few exceptions due to FZFG, which is very likely once the skies clear out resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions, especially for KTRK/KTVL. If FZFG develops at KTRK/KTVL it could last through 15-17Z this morning. Sfc winds will be generally light and VRB or from the north AOB 8 kts.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.