textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy south to southwest winds will present minor impacts to fire, recreation, and travel on Monday.

* Active weather returns with rain, mountain snow and thunderstorms all possible by Tuesday into Wednesday.

* More fall-weather, including much cooler temperatures and chilly nights will stick around through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Time to get out and enjoy the last couple of warm/dry days of the week. Temperatures will remain in the upper 60s and 70s this afternoon along with our typical breezy, westerly winds. An approaching Pacific storm brings a change to the weather pattern starting Monday that will nudge us to cooler/wetter conditions for the rest of the week.

Winds - Winds will increase Monday afternoon with S/SW gusts of 25- 35 mph across NE California, E Sierra valleys, and far W Nevada. Ridgetop gusts will reach 50-70 mph at times through early Tuesday. Plan for some wind impacts Monday, including a few hours of elevated fire concerns, choppy lake recreation and possible restrictions for air/ground travel. The winds will lessen for much of the region on Tuesday as valley rain and mountain snow arrive, but gusty winds will persist in S Mono and Mineral counties into Wednesday.

Precipitation?! - The Pacific storm will meander across the Sierra and western Nevada Tuesday through the rest of the week. Moist, southerly flow will advect moisture into the region resulting in increased potential for valley rain, mountain snow, and yes, even some thunderstorms. Blended guidance is hinting at a fairly high potential for widespread (much-needed) wetting rains and most of the area with a 50%+ chance of at least 0.25 inches of rain through Friday. Some areas could see enhanced precipitation totals, especially considering the rather high EFI signals for CAPE on Wednesday. The anomalous CAPE values paired with the upper level ascent of the trough increases confidence for thunderstorm potential (15-25% chances) Wednesday and Thursday.

Snow levels will be pretty high with this warmer, sub-tropical origin storm. Snow levels around 7500-8000 ft will allow for wet snow accumulations along higher mountain passes in Mono County and Mammoth Mountain where there is 50-70% chance of 4+ inches of snow by Friday morning. If you have outdoor recreation plans or travel in the Eastern Sierra, then plan on snow impacting those activities.

Weather will remain on the cool side through next weekend as the large scale trough remains a fixture across the West and the Eastern Pacific ridge is slow to return.

-Lindaman

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions persist through today with standard westerly breezes of 15-20 kts by this afternoon.

Stronger S/SW winds arrive Monday with increased potential for minor LLWS and mountain wave turbulence concerns through Tuesday morning.

The Pacific storm bringing the enhanced winds on Monday will finally pass through the West Tuesday-Wednesday. Plan on periods of valley rain and mountain snow that will lower CIGS/VIS at all area terminals. A 10-20% chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday may also bring sudden VIS reductions to area terminals.

-Salas/Lindaman

FIRE WEATHER

Winds will increase on Monday ahead of a Pacific storm approaching the West. South-Southwest wind gusts Monday afternoon will waver around 30 mph with localized gusts up to 40 mph for the Sierra north of Highways 50/88 into Plumas-Lassen and into northern Washoe County, and the Reno-Carson-Douglas-Storey area. Winds along with recent warm and dry conditions will lead to an elevated wildfire threat and may produce localized critical conditions Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the Pacific storm is projected to bring widespread wetting rainfall and high elevation snow. Most areas have a 40% chance or higher of receiving at least 0.25" of liquid between Wednesday and Thursday. For the eastern Sierra, plan on accumulating snow (3-8 inches) above 7500-8000 feet by Friday morning.

-Lindaman

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.