textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm days with afternoon breezes and dry conditions today through Thursday will bring elevated fire weather concerns.

* A short period of increased heat with Moderate to isolated Major HeatRisk is expected Friday through Saturday.

* Increased moisture may bring shower and thunderstorm chances as soon as Sunday, with a greater potential for storms early next week.

DISCUSSION

A low pressure trough along the west coast will bring drier air and increased afternoon breezes today and Wednesday, just a touch above our typical zephyr winds (gusting 25-30 mph, locally up to 35 mph). With the dry conditions and warm temperatures (highs in the mid-upper 90s for lower elevations and lower-mid 80s for Sierra communities), expect pockets of elevated to brief critical fire weather concerns. Winds ease back a bit on Thursday as the trough weakens, but similar warm and dry conditions will persist, with poor overnight humidity recovery across much of western NV and midslope/thermal belt areas.

We'll see a further warmup Friday-Saturday as a high pressure ridge expands over the southwest US and Four Corners region. This translates to highs near or above 100 degrees for western NV valleys, and upper 80s for Sierra communities. As of now, the Reno airport has a 40-50% chance for reaching 100F on Friday, and 70-80% chance on Saturday. Lower elevations can expect widespread Moderate HeatRisk and isolated areas of Major HeatRisk, so if you have outdoor plans, be sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the shade.

For later this weekend into early next week, the high pressure ridge is projected to shift to the Rockies and central US, while a southerly flow aloft over CA-NV brings an increase of subtropical monsoon-type moisture and instability. Isolated PM showers and t-storms may return as early as Sunday near the eastern Sierra, with increased potential expanding into parts of western NV and northeast CA for early next week. Daytime highs Sunday are projected to dip slightly to the upper 90s for lower elevations with mid 80s near the Sierra, then could fall further next Monday- Tuesday as cloud cover and precip chances increase. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail for all terminals this week. Expect afternoon SW-W breezes for all terminals mainly between 21-04Z for the next few days, with gusts mainly 20-25 kt. The western NV terminals and KMMH could see brief gusts near 30 kt today and Wednesday. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.