textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend through the weekend with periods of gusty ridgetop winds and light showers near the southern Oregon border.

* Well above average temperatures and dry into next week with signals for precipitation by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

A ridge is currently sitting over the eastern Pacific Ocean, deflecting any troughs to our north that swing by. A couple of shortwave troughs will pass through between tomorrow and Wednesday next week. Then once mid-next week comes, that ridge will finally start to breakdown and move east, allowing the storm track to shift further south.

High temperatures will gradually warm up each day through this weekend and into next week, eventually bringing high temperatures into the 60's in lower valleys and Sierra valleys by Wednesday. Winds will stay light (<20 mph) through at least Wednesday next week, though ridgetops could see gusts up to 35-50 mph through Saturday.

With these shortwaves riding around the edge of the high pressure, northern Washoe County, Surprise Valley, northern lassen County, and Pershing County have a 30-60% chance to see light rain showers tomorrow (Friday) afternoon-evening. The next round of showers up north look to be around the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

Looking ahead to late next week and next weekend as the ridge breaks down, we will likely be in for a pattern change with more active weather. Approximately 60% of the ECMWF Ens and GEFS members show signs of precipitation arriving during that time. We'll monitor as it gets closer.

-Justin

AVIATION

Light sfc winds and VFR conditions continue today and Friday. FL100 winds increase out of the north overnight tonight to 25-30kt.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.