textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A weather system continues to bring showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures today. Be prepared for recreation and travel impacts due to gusty winds, rain, hail, and mountain snow.

* Warmer, showery weather with additional thunderstorm chances expected Tuesday.

* Warm and dry weather returns mid-week through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Another round of storms is expected this afternoon. Overall strength of these storms appears to be limited and weaker than yesterday's storms due to lack of instability and much cooler afternoon temperatures. Some showers across western NV will continue into the early morning and linger until the next round of storms fire off 10 AM. Snow levels do come down quite a bit to 7500-8500 feet over Mono County this afternoon. That being said, there is a 40-50% chance of 6 or more inches of snow above 8500 feet in Mono County. The most likely range is between 4-8", with 8" falling on the highest peaks. Graupel will likely get mixed in with the snow in the more convective, stronger cells as well. Chances for precip are around 50-80% area-wide, with a 25-35% chance for lightning.

CAMs have MUCAPE anywhere between 400-1100 J/kg across the CWA, with DCAPE between generally 300-800 J/kg. Storms over Pershing County and northern Washoe County will have higher LCLs with more DCAPE(>900 J/kg), so the potential for stronger gusts up to 50-55 mph is more likely further north. Could see more blowing dust out in the Basin and Range today too as those storms extend north. Storms will be moving from east to west today at 25kt, so they'll be moving fairly fast. In general, with this kind of environment we're expecting any hail to remain around pea size and outflow gusts up to 45 mph. However, I do want to call out a narrow corridor from Fallon to Reno where a stronger thunderstorm could develop this afternoon (hail 0.5", gusts 45+ mph). This many hours out I don't want to put too much confidence in it, but the CAMs are consistently hinting at it to where it's worth mentioning. Timing and placement of a brief clearing in the clouds to allow additional instability will be key with this, so that's why the uncertainty is so high.

These showers and thunderstorms will taper off tonight around 8-10 PM. The low off the coast will continue to track south and east, then by Tuesday afternoon we'll be set up for another round of showers and thunderstorms focused more over S. Lyon, Mineral, and Mono counties. Current probabilities for those storms are 50-60%, with a 15-20% chance of lightning.

Wednesday through this weekend, high pressure will set in where we'll finally dry out and warm up to the mid 80s in western NV valleys and mid 70s in Sierra valleys. Expect really nice spring weather heading into this weekend with light winds and sunny skies.

-Justin

AVIATION

Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected this afternoon for all terminals. Probabilities are higher in the Sierra (80-90%) and lower into western NV (50-70%). Chances for lightning will be 25-35% this afternoon as well. With these storms expect frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall (IFR), gusty outflow winds (30-40 kt), and small hail (less than 1"). Lower cloud heights are expected today, which may cause mountaintop obscurations. More storms are in the forecast Tuesday, with KMMH having the highest probability to see a storm.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.