textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Above average temperatures, and widespread moderate HeatRisk are expected Monday through Thursday for western NV, with typical afternoon breezes.

* Upper trough potentially arrives by the end of the week, with an increase in winds, lower temperatures and low chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the OR border.

DISCUSSION

* High pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will gradually expand into the forecast area through Tuesday. This will allow for a warming trend, with temperatures returning to the mid to upper 90s for much of western NV and eastern Lassen County. We could even see near the century mark for the Chalfant Valley and isolated valleys in the NV Basin and Range. High temperatures for the eastern Sierra communities will warm mostly into the upper 70s to 80s. With the hot temperatures, widespread Moderate HeatRisk is likely for a majority of western NV, with a few isolated Major HeatRisk areas in the inner Basin.

* At this moment, blended guidance shows Tuesday as the hottest day this week. The reason is that on Wednesday, a weak trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. This feature will start to push the aforementioned high pressure back to the southeast. By Friday, another potentially stronger trough is poised to moved into the Pacific Northwest. The ensembles are starting to show better agreement on the evolution of this feature compared to prior runs. At this time, gusty winds start to increase as early as Thursday. Winds are the strongest on Friday, with likely (60-90%) chances for winds greater than 35 mph. These winds combined with the hot temperatures and dry conditions will lead to fire weather concerns Thursday into Saturday. There are other additional impacts to aviation and recreation, as well as low 10-20% chances for showers and storms near the OR border on Friday. Winds remain strong on Saturday, then finally start to decrease on Sunday. Temperatures during this time frame with trend cooler, with afternoon readings between 5-10 degrees below average for late June. We will be riding the weather roller coaster this week! -McKellar

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Typical west winds return in the afternoon to early evening with sustained 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts, then light and VRB overnight and in the morning.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.