textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible for portions of NE CA, Mono and Mineral counties today.

* A drier, breezier and warmer airmass moves into the region through Friday restricting shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated.

* Monsoonal moisture potentially returns this weekend into next week, bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Radar is mostly clear of rain in our region early this morning. However, convective debris (clouds) remain in portions of the NV Basin and Range, Mineral and Mono counties. This afternoon, we should have low level cumulus develop again with residual moisture. This moisture along with marginal instability (MUCAPE ~200 J/kg) and shear (around 25 kts) should be enough to develop some showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two in portions of Mono/Mineral and over NE CA. PWs are lower today around 0.8-0.9 inches meaning that the convective activity will be a less efficient rain producer. So, watch out for any dry lightning today, although the chances are less than 5%. High-based showers could potentially have some gusty outflows as they dissipate, though.

Otherwise, generally dry, hot and breezy conditions prevail the rest of the week. A southwest flow develops from the approach of an upper trough from the PacNW pushing the upper ridge to our southeast bringing the aforementioned conditions. The ridge been slightly pushed out along with sunnier skies will allow for warmer temperatures, with highs in the 80s for Sierra communities and 90s for NE CA and western NV. The slight tightening of the pressure gradient will increase our typical afternoon winds on Thursday and Friday with gusts to 20-30 mph valleys and 30-40 mph over ridgelines, especially over NE CA and the Sierra crest.

This weekend, the upper ridge strengthens and expands over the Rockies towards the Four Corners area, pushing the upper trough to our west. This will allow the return of a monsoonal plume of moisture towards western NV and eastern CA. It is looking drier than what we were seeing a few days ago, but it is starting to trend wetter again for Saturday and Sunday over the Sierra and Mineral county with POPs in the 20-30% range. Rain and thunderstorm chances appear to further increase next week. However, there is still uncertainty this far out.

-HC

AVIATION

Mainly VFR conditions return areawide as -SHRA/-TSRA move away from the area early this morning. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA could be possible near the OR border and near KMMH/KHTH. Although KTRK has a 10% chance of developing FG this morning. Otherwise, it should be dry today. Winds will be light and VRB through 18Z then become from the west 5-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts after 20Z. Winds subside around sunset. Some LLWS and minor turbulence is possible from the Tahoe Basin into NE CA due to FL100 winds to 25 kts after 00Z this afternoon.

-HC

FIRE WEATHER

Today through Friday brings a drier, warmer and breezier airmass, reintroducing elevated to critical fire weather conditions over NE California and far NW Nevada. Stronger winds over the next few days rise with westerly gusts to 20-25 mph in valleys, and ridgelines to 35-40 mph. This may light up any potential holdover fires from lightning over the last few days, especially over NE CA. Additionally, the morning fog that may return this morning to portions of the Sierra, NE CA and western NV, which could impact visibility.

-HRICH/HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.