textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend continues with above average temperatures this week, then some cooling arrives by next weekend.

* Increased breezes arrive by midweek, with a greater potential for gusty winds and fire weather concerns by the start of next weekend.

* Mainly dry conditions prevail for the upcoming week, except for minimal shower chances up to 10% for the eastern Sierra today and Tuesday, and near the Oregon border Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

The warming trend will continue for early-mid week as a weak high pressure ridge sets up over CA-NV. Highs climb through the 80s in lower elevations today-Tuesday, then by Wednesday highs are on track to reach 90 degrees in warmer valleys of western NV. A shortwave trough passage brushing across the Pacific NW around midweek brings a pause in the warmup Thursday, then 90 degree highs return to similar western NV valleys on Friday. HeatRisk edges into Moderate category for some of the warmer valleys of west central NV--while this isn't unusual for early June, it is quite a change from the 50s and 60s that prevailed for much of last week. For Sierra communities, highs mainly in the 70s are expected, with 80 degrees within reach for a few sites from Tuesday-Friday.

Overall dry conditions are likely to prevail through Friday. However, there are non-zero (10% or less) chances for brief showers each afternoon today and Tuesday near the Sierra crest in Mono County. This is due to increased daytime heating, terrain- driven convergence, and weak forcing from a weak upper low off the southern CA coast. Then on Wednesday, similar low-end shower chances shift to near the OR border with the aforementioned shortwave trough passage.

Mainly typical SW-W breezes are expected to start the week, then these winds edge upward on Wednesday with afternoon gusts near 30 mph across western NV. This may produce elevated fire weather concerns in isolated locations with grass-type vegetation drying out again after last week's rainfall.

For the upcoming weekend, a stronger low pressure area approaches the west coast. This brings an increased risk of gusty winds and elevated or locally critical fire weather conditions which could arrive as soon as Friday, but currently favoring Saturday for peak wind gusts of 35+ mph. At this time, precipitation chances look minimal, although some scenarios introduce slight chances for showers by next Sunday, depending on the eventual track of this low after it moves inland. A cooling trend is also projected for the weekend with highs dipping to the upper 60s near the Sierra and mid-upper 70s for lower elevations by Sunday--near or slightly below early June averages. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail at main terminals through late week. Only exception is for patchy fog early this morning in the Martis Valley including KTRK, lowering CIGS/VIS to IFR/LIFR conditions at times between 10Z and 16Z. This fog potential decreases for early Tuesday although shorter periods of shallower fog may still develop.

Typical late day W-NW breezes with gusts to 20 kt at the main terminals today-Tuesday, except lighter winds for KTRK/KTVL. Wind gusts may edge up to around 25 kt by Wednesday afternoon with Sierra ridge gusts to 35 kt, leading to periods of lee-side turbulence. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.