textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Following a morning of fog and freezing fog in valley locations, dry and cold conditions will prevail across the region today.

* Another storm will bring rain and snow to the Sierra and western Nevada on Thursday into Friday, but this is not nearly as wet as the multi-day storm we just had.

* Looking ahead to the week of Thanksgiving, the weather for traveling looks good the early part of the week. Simulations are then pointing toward a potential colder storm during the weekend after the holiday.

DISCUSSION

Today: At the time of the composition of this discussion, the Reno- Tahoe International airport ASOS (KRNO) has not yet hit 32F this morning though the potential still remains. Will be monitoring the observations to see if the latest "first freeze" at that site will be recorded this morning. Across the region, other observations are showing low dewpoint depressions especially in the valley areas. As there has been recent precipitation and there are clear skies above, these conditions may lead to fog and freezing fog formation, so please use caution traveling this morning as visibility may be reduced. But the fog chances look to disappear by the afternoon allowing for dry conditions today. Cool daytime temperatures are in the forecast for today as western NV valleys ranges between the middle 40s and middle 50s with the Sierra communities' highs between the upper 30s and up to just around the 50 degree mark. As another Pacific low moves closer to the CWA late today, cloud cover expects to increase which will limit overnight cooling. As such, low temperatures tonight are forecast to be a few degrees warmer than those from the previous night.

Thursday into the weekend: Shortly after midnight tonight, the window for wintry precipitation chances opens in NE CA and in the Tahoe Basin area as the Pacific low is expected to take south- southeast track across CA and passed the CWA to the west. Gusty winds up to around 40 mph are currently in the forecast at the crest during the morning with this setup. The precipitation chances (~50-75%) then will spread over the rest of the CWA going through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. By the evening hours, the rain/snow chance begin to taper off from the north to the south with the progression of the aforementioned low. By Friday morning, the PoPs are forecast to decrease to around 15-25% and be confined mostly south of US-50. Any lingering precipitation chances then disappear by the late afternoon/early evening on Friday. As for forecast snow levels during this system, they look to begin around 6-6.5 kft during the early morning hours before dropping to around 5.5-6 kft in the late morning and then continue more or less through the life of the system. Most of the measurable snowfall looks to be in the higher elevations of the Sierra as the latest NBM probabilities show a 40-60% chance of 4 inches of snow or more at the pass level in the Tahoe Region and a 60-80% chance of the same at the pass level in the Eastern Sierra. At Tahoe Lake level and near Virginia City, there is currently a 20-30% probability of 2 inches or more with this system as well. Will continue to monitor this in case snow amounts start to trend upward. Following the rain/snow chances that end the work week, a ridge looks to build over the region over the weekend signaling for cool temperatures to continue and a dry pattern to prevail.

Thanksgiving week: Looking ahead to one of the busiest travel period of the year, the extended forecast is currently showing the dry period continuing and that signs of the weather on Thanksgiving may be relatively quiet. However, we are still are seeing a large number of ensembles (80+%) indicating a colder trough for the weekend following the holiday, with rain and snow chances. It is still to early to get into particular details with this storm being 10-12 days out, but just something to be aware of if you do have holiday travel plans. -078

AVIATION

Chances for sub-VFR conditions are seen through this morning due to clear skies allowing for FG/FZFG to form reducing visibilities in valley areas. Conditions look to improve by around 17-18Z for most of the region. Beyond that: dry conditions, relatively light winds, and decreased cloud cover are forecast through the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions. Going into the night, an approaching weather system will cause cloud cover to increase within the region. Shortly after Thursday begins, the system brings snow chances to the Sierra and NE CA while ridge winds gusting up to around 30-35 kts are in the forecast through the morning. These precipitation chances spread across the rest of the region going through the night allowing for rain and snow that could lower flight rules. The precipitation coverage looks to begin to taper off from north to south beginning Thursday evening before vanishing completely by midday Friday. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.