textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm, mostly dry conditions with light winds through the weekend.

* There is a 30% chance for light precipitation on Friday mainly in Mono and Mineral Counties.

* Cooler temperatures and light precipitation possible as a cold front moves through Monday-Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Clouds filtering in along the Sierra from the southeast are arriving courtesy of an upper low that has formed along the coast of southern California. Snow showers above 7000 feet will begin to rotate northward into the Sierra this morning, lifting as far north as the southern shores of Lake Tahoe later this afternoon. Overall, amounts are expected to be light, with generally 0.5-1.0 inches of fresh snowfall and isolated peaks receiving up to 2 inches. With the system being rather transient in nature, we will see this on its way shortly after nightfall tonight. The clearing skies will allow for temperatures to fall a couple degrees below last night's lows, bringing near freezing temperatures back to western Nevada valleys for a couple nights.

Overall, afternoons this weekend will keep the same warm, dry flavor that we have been under for awhile. Light winds and inversions will also be featured the majority of the weekend. By Sunday, hints of our next system will begin to materialize first for northeastern California, eventually drifting into the Sierra and even some western Nevada valleys. This may be the beginning of the pattern shift many of our snow sports enthusiasts have been seeking. Snow amounts for the early week system still look a bit light, with snow levels looking to start out around 8000 feet, tumbling to around 5000 feet for the northern Sierra and 7500 feet for the southern portion of the Sierra across Mono County. Overall, amounts look to be less than 1 inch for most areas with isolated peaks gathering up to 3 inches of fresh snow. Valleys below will see a rain/snow mix as snow levels take a sharp decline to valley floors early Wednesday and Thursday, possibly even bringing light snow for a brief period ahead of day break on Wednesday. Confidence is lower on how timing of moisture and cold air in place may affect the outcome and amounts.

Another piece of information that is unclear is just how long this system will be with us. If the ensemble solutions are correct, we could be under the influence of the low pressure circulation through the rest of the work week into the weekend. Check back in future discussions to find out more about this upcoming wetter pattern.

HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR conditions throughout the forecast period, with light winds and hazy skies due to inversions in valleys. Valley terminals may experience slantwise visibility concerns due to the haze. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.