textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Decreasing precipitation chances are expected today and tomorrow with seasonably warm temperatures and typical afternoon breezes.

* Smoke from the recent Hawk Fire may bring poorer visibility and air quality to portions of the region near the Reno metro-area.

* Dry conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the work week with a potential increase in winds Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

For today, forecast guidance shows the CWA generally with a southwesterly flow aloft as an upper low moves along the U.S./Canada border while a high pressure ridge resides to the south and east. During the afternoon hours, models do show a slight shortwave disturbance passing through the flow over central NV. While dry conditions are expected for most of the region, this upper disturbance allows for Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill Counties to see a ~10-25% chance for isolated showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two between 2-10 PM today. While forecast convective parameters do not support severe weather, stronger storms may produce brief periods of heavy rainfall with forecast PWs in these areas around 0.7-0.8 inches though not anticipating any flash flood threat at this time. For tomorrow, models do show another afternoon disturbance passing through the region, but this time closer to the OR border. As such, similar shower and thunderstorm chances are seen in Lassen, Modoc, and N. Washoe Counties on Monday afternoon. The latest forecast PW values in these locations come down slightly to 0.5-0.7 inches, so we cannot rule out potential isolated dry thunderstorms at this time on Monday.

Another concern for today particularly in Washoe County and its adjacent areas looks to be smoke produced from the recent Hawk Fire. The latest HRRR smoke model shows patchy smoke continuing through the Sunday morning hours. But by the Sunday afternoon and evening hours, the model shows an increase in the concentration of near-surface smoke particularly in the Reno-Sparks area which may reduce area visibilities slightly. Those sensitive to poor air quality may want to continue to monitor airnow.gov today for the latest air quality information. The HRRR also shows patchy smoke possibly filtering into the portions of the NV Basin & Range going through the night as well. While typical afternoon breezes gusting up to around 20-25 mph are forecast today and tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Forecast convective parameters though do support potential plume development from the Hawk Fire later today with decent mid-level moisture and triple digit CAPE values.

Daytime high temperatures today through Friday generally will be in the lower to middle 90s for the NE CA and W NV valleys and in the middle 70s to lower 80s range for Sierra communities. While low precipitation chances are to be expected after Monday, an isolated shower from diurnal heating cannot be ruled out completely through the rest of the work week. Model guidance does show a PacNW upper low moving towards BC midweek which may cause afternoon winds to increase a bit particularly in NE CA and NW NV on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The latest NBM probabilities on these days shows around a 50-80% chance for 30+ mph maximum wind gusts on these days. Will be monitoring this in case conditions trend towards widespread critical fire weather concerns going forward, but currently seeing elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in these areas midweek. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are currently anticipated for all area TAF sites today. One concern especially for KRNO looks to come from possible reduced visibilities due to smoke from the recent Hawk Fire. The 16/00Z HRRR smoke model shows some slight reductions in visibility for KRNO/KRTS/KTRK with KRNO/KTRK seeing some improvements by 23/16Z. However, sub-VFR visibilities are seen between 23/20Z-24/04Z by KRTS and in the vicinity of KRNO due to the proximity and location of the Hawk Fire. Forecast convective parameters will also support wildfire cloud plume development during this time. Will continue to watch the trends going forward and amend TAFs if needed especially at KRNO. The HRRR continues to show patchy smoke in W NV going through the overnight hours into Monday morning.

Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected today across the region with typical afternoon zephyr breezes. Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill Counties see a ~10-25% chance for isolated showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm between 23/21Z-24/06Z. Outside ~15-30% chances for showers in NE CA and far NW NV on Monday, dry conditions look to prevail through at least the first half of the week. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.