textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A dry, warm pattern continues through the end of the week with typical afternoon zephyr breezes.

* Temperatures warm through the weekend, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk by Friday through at least Wednesday.

* Very low precipitation chances are forecast for at least the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern displays the CWA continuing with a northwesterly flow aloft being between an upper trough over the Great Plains and an upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific. Model guidance shows the eastern trough progressing eastward today allowing the western ridge move more over the West Coast. This setup will allow for another day of mostly dry conditions underneath sunny skies today. Some of the CAMs though are showing low chances (<10%) for isolated showers during the afternoon in Southern Mono County. Daytime high temperatures continue to increase today with the highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s range for the W NV and NE CA valleys and in the lower to middle 80s range for the Sierra communities. Light winds are expected for most of the day with afternoon breezes gusting up to around 15-20 mph. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s again with a few of the W NV valleys cooling only to the lower 60s.

Going into the weekend, models show the ridge continuing to build and move more over the western CONUS. At the beginning of next week, forecast guidance then projects a trough feature moving through AK and causing the aforementioned ridge to flatten a bit midweek. This pattern will allow for the virtually zero precipitation chances to continue in the region and for temperatures to rise to at least 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals over the weekend and at least Wednesday. Daily high temperatures over the weekend are currently forecast to be in the lower to middle 90s for NE CA and W NV valleys and in the lower to middle 80s for the Sierra communities. High temperatures then warm even more with the valleys ranging into the upper 90s and some of the Sierra locations entering into the upper 80s on Monday through Wednesday. With this streak of very warm temperatures, the latest NWS HeatRisk product shows widespread Minor to Moderate HeatRisk especially in the valleys on Friday through Wednesday. There is even potential for Major HeatRisk in portions of W NV around Lovelock and Fallon on Tuesday as there is a 20-50% NBM probability of hitting the triple digits for highs. For more information on HeatRisk and potential impacts for these days: visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. Please keep this heat mind if you have outdoor plans through the middle of next week, especially if you are sensitive to heat. Lakes, rivers, and streams are also still running cold, so please refrain from entering into them to cool down as hypothermia could set in quickly. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast today and tonight across the region. Afternoon breezes expect to gust up to around 20 kts for KMMH with lesser winds seen for the rest of the TAF sites. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the rest of the week allowing for potential density altitude impacts by the weekend as temperatures warm to 10-15 degrees above June normals. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.