textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A slight chance (10%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms across NE California and NW Nevada this afternoon, with similar chances areawide Sunday.

* Fog development for fog-prone Sierra valleys again tonight through tomorrow morning.

* Above normal temperatures prevail next week with cooler, unsettled weather possible next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Hi-res models are having difficulty resolving the location for showers and thunderstorms today. Some show isolated showers across the Sierra and Sierra Front while the HRRR and RRFS want to highlight NE CA and central Washoe into Pershing county. 12Z model sounding values show very little CAPE again this morning; cumulus buildups will be likely along the higher terrain, though may have difficulty with deeper vertical development. Light rain out of any showers that develop will be most likely in NE CA near Susanville. Thunderstorm chances for the same area remain 10% or less.

Forecasted sky conditions have us clearing out again tonight, which will be conducive to fog development in and around Truckee and the Martis Valley. Fog stayed persistent until about 9:30 this morning, so expect fog to linger well past sunrise again tomorrow morning. Drivers should prepare for limited visibilities and slick roadways.

CAM guidance and model soundings hint at shower and thunderstorm potential Sunday. MUCAPE values increase in a south to north fashion from Mammoth (~150 J/kg), through the Sierra Front (~250-300 J/kg), and into NE CA and northern Washoe (~450 J/kg). Soundings currently show inverted-V profiles but the shortwave to our north may bring in mid level dry air, which would inhibit any shower and thunderstorm development. Deeper cumulus buildups are likely from the higher CAPE values, though confidence in significant impacts from showers and storms that develop remains low.

A warming and drying trend is on tap through at least mid next week with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and 70s for W NV valleys and Sierra communities, respectively. As of now, there is a ~30% chance to hit 90F in Reno Wednesday and Thursday. Long range guidance shows additional disturbances next week as well, which may bring increased afternoon breezes Wednesday. After that, a pattern change is likely by next weekend, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Stay tuned as we get closer!

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for all terminals today. The only exception will be for KTRK and KTVL where FG development will drop CIGS/VIS down to IFR/LIFR conditions from 09-16Z. Low chances (10-15%) for showers and thunderstorms today, though low cloud development will result in mountain obscurations this afternoon.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.