textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy south to southwest winds will present minor impacts to fire, recreation, and travel Monday into Tuesday.

* Rain and mountain snow arrives mid to late week with a low chance of thunderstorms.

* Much cooler temperatures with chilly nights expected from midweek onward.

DISCUSSION

Warm and dry weather rounds out the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 60s and 70s this afternoon. Winds will be a bit more breezy in the afternoon, but nothing stronger than our usual afternoon breezes. Winds will increase Monday afternoon in response to a deepening eastern Pacific trough, encouraging S/SW gusts of 25- 35 mph across the NE California, E Sierra valleys, and far W Nevada. Ridgetop gusts are expected to reach 50-70 mph at times. These winds will yield a few hours of elevated fire concerns, and impact lake recreation and air/ground travel. Gusty winds shift to S Mono and Mineral counties Tuesday and Wednesday, with lighter winds elsewhere.

The aforementioned trough is still expected to become a closed low, churning off the California coast and pivoting through the region later this week. As it does so, S-SE flow aloft will transport both Pacific moisture and a moist, subtropical airmass northward into the region. Chances of rain and mountain snow increase to 60-90% as a result, with most areas having a 50% chance or better of receiving at least 0.25" of rain (or liquid equivalent) between Wednesday and Thursday. It's conceivable that some areas -- namely the E Sierra south of Tahoe and west-central Nevada -- may realize higher end totals of 1" or more by Friday given the moisture quality, although chances of this are only 20-40%. Moreover, strong synoptic lift will support a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday morning and afternoon, which would likely result in higher rainfall totals locally.

Snow levels will trend higher with this Pacific storm, only falling to around 7500-8000 ft. Still, this would allow wet snow along higher mountain passes in Mono County and Mammoth Mountain where there is 50-70% chance of 4+ inches of snow by Friday morning. Snow may impact travel and outdoor activities, so plan accordingly. Next week will also be much cooler as highs drop from the mid 60s and 70s today to the 40s and 50s by Thursday. Nights also become chilly for most areas late this week and weekend.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions prevail today and Monday with typical west breezes of 15-20 kts this afternoon. S/SW winds aloft and at the surface will increase on Monday, presenting minor LLWS and mountain wave turbulence concerns through Tuesday morning. A Pacific storm passes through the region around midweek with periods of rain and lowered CIGS/VIS at all area terminals.

-Salas

FIRE WEATHER

South-Southwest wind gusts Monday afternoon will climb to near 30 mph with localized gusts up to 40 mph for the Sierra north of Highways 50/88 into Plumas-Lassen and into northern Washoe County, and the Reno-Carson-Douglas-Storey area. Winds along with recent warm and dry conditions will elevate the wildfire threat and may produce localized critical conditions Monday afternoon.

After Monday, a Pacific storm is increasingly likely to deliver widespread wetting rainfall and high elevation snow. While this is still a low confidence forecast, there is a moderate to high probability (50% or higher) of most areas receiving at least 0.25" of liquid between Wednesday and Thursday. Brong/Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.