textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm weather prevails through the weekend with low chances of afternoon showers and storms from Mono County into Mineral County. * A heatwave will introduce moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday through Wednesday.

* A pattern change may bring cooler temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and increased shower and storm chances late next week.

DISCUSSION

Warm and generally dry conditions persist for the weekend, but there are a couple of features we are keeping an eye on. High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will help to keep temperatures warm, but a weak shortwave trough traversing southward across the Basin and Range and the Sierra will promote higher risk for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Diffluence aloft may pair with the surface instability due to solar heating to promote more storms forming or stronger storms this afternoon. It's a bit of a messy pattern which lends to some uncertainty in the forecast, but we can plan on similar shower and thunderstorm potential (15% chances) for Mono, Mineral, and Lyon counties through the weekend. For the Sierra crest towards the Tahoe Basin, the chances are below 15% for showers and storms, but not zero. Be aware if you're enjoying the outdoors this weekend, and when thunder roars, go indoors!

Other than the storm/shower chances, the heat is the main story for the weekend into early next week. Highs will become hot by Monday into Wednesday with values well above 90F and nearing 100F. Plan on widespread moderate HeatRisk for early next week with some areas into the major HeatRisk category for the lower valley areas. Keep an eye on vulnerable populations, especially early next week, if they don't have access to adequate cooling measures. Try to avoid the hottest parts of the day by getting out early in the day or later in the evening to prevent heat illness.

Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a signal for high pressure over the West to break down and displace eastward mid to late next week. With this pattern shift we typically monitor for breezy winds and elevated fire concerns, along with better shower/storm potential, but timing and details are too early to flesh out. For now, we can plan on it cooling down to more typical temperatures late next week after pretty hot start.

-Edan

AVIATION

The main weather concern will be the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms near KMMH each afternoon through the weekend. Chances are low (15% or less), but gusty outflow winds, brief downpours, and isolated lightning may impact KMMH should showers/storms develop. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes prevail through the weekend.

Density altitude concerns arise early next week with widespread hot temperatures running 10-20 degrees above average.

-Salas

FIRE WEATHER

An extended period of very warm/hot and dry conditions is forecast through next Thursday. Monday through Wednesday features the hottest temperatures (10-20F above normal) with RH reductions to the teens and single digits. Plan on typical summertime breezes each afternoon until Tuesday, where simulations are signaling for increased breezes and possible elevated fire concerns in western Nevada. Furthermore, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon into next week, raising localized concerns for lightning ignitions and strong outflow winds.

Breakdown of a western ridge is slated to occur after Wednesday, which may introduce increased breezes and greater fire concerns, as well as better thunderstorm potential late next week into next weekend.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.