textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler temperatures, gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow return today with impacts to recreation and travel, plus snow levels down to Sierra passes by Thursday.

* Warmer and drier weather with gusty NE ridgetop winds return on Friday followed by lighter winds Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Hopefully everyone enjoyed the pleasant day we had yesterday! Unfortunately, much cooler temperatures and some precipitation is on the way. Spring will definitely be reclaiming some ground this week.

Starting off with today, an upper level shortwave trough will be passing over our CWA, causing temperatures to dip by a few degrees compared to yesterday. 700mb winds will also increase today to around 25-30kt, causing Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake to be a bit choppy. Widespread gusts of 25-30 mph out of the west and ridges gusting to 60-70 mph can be expected this afternoon. A band of light rain will work its way into NE CA and N NV this afternoon as well, though amounts will be fairly light around 0.05-0.1".

Those showers will subside overnight, then our next wave of precip moves in around 4 AM Tuesday. This time, the precip will be focused from I-80 southward through Mono County. Snow levels will range from 7000-8000', and snow amounts above 8000' are ranging from 2-12" through Tuesday night. Current NBM probabilities have a 30-45% chance of 6+ inches around Tahoe, and 60-75% chance of 6+ inches in Mono County along the crest. The Sierra Front and eastern Sierra have a 20-60% chance to see 0.10+ inches of rain. Temperatures will also take another hit on Tuesday, dropping down to the low 60s across W NV valleys and upper 40s in Sierra valleys. Winds will stay breezy too, with gusts up to 25 mph.

By early morning Wednesday, our next storm will arrive in the Sierra and NE CA. A larger, deeper upper level trough will move in, bringing additional Sierra snow and valley rain. Snow levels will start off around 7500' and then drop below 5000' after 10 PM. Snow amounts above 7000' along the Sierra crest from Alpine County northward have a 50-80% chance of at least 6", and 10-40% chance of at least 12" through Thursday evening. Over Mono County, there is currently a 30-50% chance of at least 2" through Thursday evening. Lower valleys in NE CA, W NV, and the eastern Sierra have a 40-70% chance of at least 0.10" of rain, and 20-50% chance of at least 0.20" of rain through Thursday evening. I'll add too that there's a 15-20% chance of lightning with the showers on Wednesday. Strong gusty winds will be possible on as well on Wednesday. There is a 60-80% chance of widespread gusts of 45+ mph in the afternoon.

The rain and snow should all wrap up by Thursday evening, leaving behind chilly northeasterly breezes. Then Friday onward, a ridge builds in and hangs out over our CWA through this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Our temperatures will rebound back up to 10-15 degrees above average, but nowhere near record levels. Gotta love the roller coaster of spring!

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions with no precipitation is expected today. Gusty westerly winds up to 20-30kt will be possible this afternoon for all terminals. FL100 winds will increase to 25-30kt this afternoon, then increase to 40-50kt after 06Z tonight, then drop back off to 20-30kt by midday Tuesday.

Periods of rain are expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening. MVFR-IFR conditions will be possible in these rain showers. Sierra terminals have a 60-80% chance to see light snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Strong westerly winds will be possible Wednesday afternoon, with a 50-70% chance to exceed 40kt.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.