textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail early this week with enhanced afternoon breezes Monday and Tuesday.

* Pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions by midweek with valley rain and high elevation snow.

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday, though confidence remains low on the extent of the impacts.

DISCUSSION

Mostly dry and mild through at least Tuesday of this week with afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal. This translates to the mid 70s for W NV and the mid 60s for Sierra communities. Afternoon breezes will pick up Monday and again Tuesday afternoon due to a brief shortwave cutting across southern Nevada.

A pattern change arrives Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches the California coast. This brings cooler and wetter conditions, with chances of precipitation by mid-afternoon Wednesday. Snow levels are high, over 9000', so the main precip type will be rain. However, said precip will have to override the dry layer we have at the surface; precip Wednesday will likely be virga.

The most interesting piece to note in the forecast for this week is the chance for thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. Chances Thursday are a bit more isolated, but increase in areal coverage Friday to be of the "scattered" variety. Model soundings for Reno show roughly 430 J/kg of CAPE and 0.5" PWATs Friday. Both of these values are approaching the max values based on sounding climatology. The low bringing these storm chances will remain cut off from the upper level flow, which will allow for track meanderings. Check back here to see how confidence changes; confidence on the extent of the impacts by the end of the week remains low for now.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for all terminals. Winds will be light and variable today, with afternoon breezes up to 15-20 kts kicking in Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.