textproduct: Reno

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong high pressure will result in historic March warmth this week.

* The warm temperatures will accelerate snowmelt, leading to rivers running fast and cold.

* Dry and mild weather is favored through the weekend, but a pattern change is possible by March 24th or 25th.

DISCUSSION

* An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure (~595 dam) will move over the western U.S. this week. This will allow for high temperatures throughout the region to soar to readings more common for early to mid-June. High temperatures will likely (>85%) reach the low to mid 80s this week for much of western NV, as well as eastern Lassen and the lower elevations of Mono and Alpine counties. Even the eastern Sierra communities will reach into the mid to upper 70s. Daily records are likely (80%) for the entire region Tuesday through Friday. We even have a 85% chance of reaching or exceeding the monthly record high of 83 degrees in Reno. Temperatures cool a bit by Saturday and Sunday as the high pressure slightly weakens. But, we'll remain up to 15 degrees above average. With the ridge breakdown, winds will start to pick up by the weekend.

* Melting snow will cause local rivers and streams to rise and flow rapidly this week. While air temperatures are record- breaking, the water remains cold enough to cause immediate physical shock and exhaustion. To stay safe, avoid the water and keep children and pets away from fast-moving riverbanks.

* Ensembles are starting to show signs of a pattern change around the 24th-25th. The probability of rain and snow remains low (15%), and blended guidance shows temperatures remaining up to 10 degrees above average. -McKellar

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions with light east breezes prevail today. Significant warming this week may pose density altitude impacts for western Nevada terminals, particularly after today when temperatures are warmest. Reductions to slantwise visibilities will also be possible each morning due to inversions and subsequent haze.

-Salas/McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.

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