textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday for Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties.

* Afternoon winds increase the fire risk Monday for northeast CA and northwest NV.

* A weather system could approach the west coast late in the week bringing afternoon winds, showers, and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

For the most part this week will feature run of the mill summer weather. Plan on afternoon highs for the lower valleys in the low to mid 90s with 80s for the Sierra. Heating and moisture will drive afternoon cumulus build ups with shower and thunderstorm chances 20% or less through mid week. For this afternoon and Monday afternoon, high resolution models produce minimal activity over Mineral and southern Churchill counties from 4-8pm.

High pressure over the desert southwest and an elongated area of low pressure stretching from the Pacific Northwest to 30N 140W over the Pacific will leave us under a dry southwest flow. The jet stream associated with the low sits over northern California and close enough to raise winds gusts to 20-30 mph Monday afternoon.

The low is forecast to back away from the CA coast Tue-Thu allowing for a shorter duration of afternoon winds along with light speeds (<20 mph). The low re-approaches the CA and OR coasts for Friday and the weekend. Simulations show winds increasing to raise the fire risk again along with bringing moisture for showers and thunderstorms. Brong

AVIATION

VFR conditions the next several days. There is a 10-20% chance for showers or thunderstorms across Mineral, and southern Churchill counties from 21z-03z this afternoon and Monday afternoon. An uptick in WSW winds Monday afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20-25 kts for the Tahoe and western NV terminals. Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.