textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Well above average temperatures will persist through Friday, with daily record highs possible throughout the area. * A potent cold front is expected to produce gusty winds with enhanced fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday.

* Significant cooling is expected behind the front with below average temperatures returning, along with 50-70% chances for rain and mountain snow showers by Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Unseasonable warmth continues through Friday, with highs running 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages, more typical of late August or early September. Record highs are possible across the area this afternoon, with a 90% chance Reno will tie or break its daily record high of 87 degrees today. Highs through Friday will reach the upper 80s across W.Nevada and NE California, with mid to upper 70s across E.Sierra communities.

Dry conditions and light winds continue through Thursday before the seasons first potent fall cold front arrives this weekend. This pattern change will bring strong, gusty winds, significant cooling, and chances for valley rain and mountain showers late in the weekend into early next week. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected Friday and Saturday, along with potential impacts to outdoor recreation and travel.

Southwest winds increase Friday, with afternoon gusts of 25-35 mph from the Sierra Front into far NW Nevada and NE California. Winds strengthen with Saturdays cold front, bringing gusts of 30-40 mph and a 25-35% chance of exceeding 45 mph. Combined with persistent dry conditions, these winds could produce critical fire weather conditions. Fire Weather Watches have been issued across NE California and NW Nevada this weekend. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for details.

A sharp cooldown follows the cold front, with highs dropping 20-25 degrees from Friday to Sunday with the low 60s across W.Nevada and low 50s in E.Sierra communities. Precipitation chances have also increased as moisture from Hurricane Rachel gets drawn northward, reaching chances of 50-70% south of I-80 Sunday-Monday. Confidence in the lows track and precipitation totals remains low but overall things are trending wetter. Those planning outdoor recreation in the E.Sierra this weekend or early next week should prepare for much colder weather and possible light snow showers down to 7,000-8,000 feet. Fuentes

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through Thursday with typical afternoon breezes below 20 kts.

* The first potent fall cold front will begin to increase winds Friday afternoon, with the strongest winds expected with the frontal passage on Saturday. This will result in an increased potential for LLWS and turbulence.

* Temperatures will cool 20-25 degrees behind the front by Sunday with increasing chances for rain and mountain snowfall Sunday into early next week. Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

The seasons first potent cold front will bring increasing southwest winds Friday afternoon, peaking Saturday as it moves through NE California and W.Nevada. Winds combined with low humidity may produce periods of critical fire weather conditions both days. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Friday afternoon and evening for portions of NE California and NW Nevada, including fire weather zones 270, 278, and 458.

Friday afternoon gusts will reach 25-35 mph as minimum RH falls to 10-17%. The strongest winds will favor areas near the Oregon border, though elevated fire weather concerns may extend along the Sierra Front. Winds peak Saturday afternoon and evening, with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph mainly south of I-80. Humidity will increase across NE California and far NW Nevada, while areas south of I-80 may see continued elevated concerns with a more marginal minimum RH of 15-20% Saturday afternoon.

Behind the front, highs will drop 20-25 degrees from Friday to Sunday, reaching the low 60s across W.Nevada and low 50s in E.Sierra communities. Wetting rain potential increases Sunday- Monday, mainly south of I-80, as remnant moisture from Hurricane Rachel moves northward. The moistures track and precipitation totals still show higher uncertainty, but the overall trend has been wetter. Areas south of I-80 have a 20-40% chance of receiving at least 0.50 inches of rainfall through early next week, with the highest chances farther south. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ458.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening CAZ270-278.