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KEY MESSAGES

* Warm, dry, and breezy today with choppy lakes and isolated critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for W.NV.

* Critical fire weather concerns for W.Nevada due to gusty winds and dry conditions with a strong cold front on Fri & Sat. * Temperatures cooling 10-20 degrees below average over the weekend with light showers possible Friday-Saturday.

DISCUSSION

One more day of warm, dry, and breezy conditions today before significant changes arrive with a series of cold fronts over the weekend. Highs today will remain in the low 90s for W.Nevada valleys with upper 70s/low 80s for Sierra valleys. Along with increasing cloud cover, wind gusts are expected to increase to around 25-35 mph late this afternoon/evening. Continued dry conditions with gusty winds may yield isolated areas of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across W.Nevada. Choppy lake waters are expected for W.Nevada lakes including Pyramid.

The main weather highlight will be our significant cool down and gusty winds Fri-Sat. Gusty winds prevail on Friday with SW sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Stronger winds are expected Saturday with higher sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph across the E.Sierra and W.Nevada.

The first frontal passage on Friday will provide a band of light showers north of I-80 late Thursday night into very early Friday morning before tracking south of I-80 through the afternoon. Shower chances will be around 15-25% with a 10-15% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Accumulations are expected to be light with only about a 10% chance for up 0.10" of precipitation with 15-25% chances northward of Susanville to the Oregon border.

The secondary front on Saturday will keep shower chances (25-50%) mainly northward of I-80 with the best potential for up to 0.25" of rainfall mainly across far N.Lassen County into far N.Washoe county near the Oregon border. The overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday may also bring a dusting of snow to higher elevations of the northern Tahoe Basin and Warner Mountains as snow levels snow levels drop to around 7500-8000'.

Expect temperatures to drop about 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday with the first front, and then another 5-10 degrees by Saturday/Sunday. This translates into low-mid 70s for W.Nevada and mid-upper 60s for Sierra valleys. Below freezing temperatures for Sierra valleys are most likely (50-70%) by early Sunday and Monday mornings with most W.Nevada communities remaining in the low-mid 40s, but colder rural valleys could dip into the mid-30s. Temperatures will then rebound back in to the mid-upper 80s early next week, then to the low 90s by Independence day. Fuentes

AVIATION

* VFR conditions today with increasing clouds (FL200) and westerly afternoon gusts around 25-30 kts. Areas of mountain turbulence and LLWS are an increasing likelihood after about 06z this evening for Tahoe terminals and also along Sierra Front terminals including: KRNO, KRTS, KCXP, and KMEV.

* A strong, spring-like cold front will bring gusty winds to area terminals Friday and Saturday, where gusts will range 35-45 kts. Additional hazards include LLWS, mountain waves, and visibility reductions for KLOL, KNFL, KHTH due to blowing dust. Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

* Critical fire weather concerns are expected this weekend across W.Nevada as series of potent cold fronts track through the area. Red Flag Warnings now in effect for the Sierra Front eastward into the W.Nevada Basin and Range Friday and Saturday.

* We will begin seeing isolated areas of critical fire weather conditions by late afternoon today as our afternoon westerly gusts increase to 25-35 mph while afternoon RH drops into the single digits.

* Friday will see more widespread gusty conditions as the first front moves through. Southwesterly sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph are expected across both the E.Sierra and W.Nevada by mid-afternoon through early evening. RH will be trending higher with afternoon minimums around 12-20% across W.Nevada. In addition, there will be 15-25% chances of light showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

* Saturday will see stronger wind potential as the main front sweeps through. Higher sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with W.Nevada afternoon RH dipping back down to 10-18%. Overall, slightly higher RH values these days may negated by the stronger winds, dry fuels/grasses, and recent lightning holdover potential from last weeks storms.

* E.Sierra fire weather zones are also expected to see these same strong winds with ridgetops seeing wind gusts near 80 mph. However, fuels have not been reported to be critical and minimum RH is expected to be around 30-40%.

* Critical fire weather conditions will lull Friday night into early Saturday as humidity recoveries increase to around 40-70%, but winds will remain breezy for mid-slopes and ridges. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM PDT Saturday NVZ001>004.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday NVZ004.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ423- 429.

CA... Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM PDT Saturday CAZ071- 072.