textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably warm and dry conditions prevail through Saturday.

* Afternoon breezes will be elevated today, leading to elevated fire weather concerns, especially for NE California and NW Nevada.

* Monsoonal moisture returns Sunday, renewing chances for showers and thunderstorms, with potential for localized heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Mostly sunny skies prevail today and tomorrow with seasonably warm temperatures in the mid-90s and to around 100F for the lower elevations and mid-70s to mid-80s for Sierra communities. Afternoon west to southwest winds will be elevated with gusts generally 15-25 mph for most areas and a 40-60% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph. These winds combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather concerns, especially for NE CA, far NW NV and mountain ridges. Afternoon gusts are expected to be slightly lighter tomorrow, typically 10-20 mph with lower chances of exceeding 25 mph. Monsoonal moisture returns from the south on leading to partly cloudy skies and slightly warmer overnight lows on Saturday night. On Sunday, monsoonal continues to intrude the region. POPs will increase from around 5% to 10-15% primarily over higher terrain of western NV and the Sierra. From Monday through Thursday, the monsoonal flow becomes better established leading to daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be in areas south of US-50. NBM guidance shows POPs ranging from 10-40% Mono/Mineral, 10-20% Sierra and western NV, and 5-15% for NE CA. The deeper moisture with PWs around 1 inch and dewpoints in the 40s-50s range, and MUCAPE around 300-500 J/kg is enough for localized heavy rain with potential for minor flash flooding, especially over burn scars, steep terrain and urban areas. There is also potential for strong outflow winds with the stronger storms.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm through the weekend and next week. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s over the lower elevations and upper 70s to upper 80s for Sierra communities. However, overnight lows will be slightly warmer than usual due to increased moisture and cloud cover, with min temps in the 60s to low 70s for the lower elevations and 50s for the Sierra. Overall, uncertainty remains next week with the exact timing and coverage of daily convection, which is typical for monsoonal patterns.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue across the area. Main concern today will be afternoon westerly breezes up to 25 kts. Winds will subside around sunset, but increased winds persist at FL100 level that could lead to very minor turbulence and LLWS. Chances for -SHRA/-TSRA are less than 5%, better chances return Sunday.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.