textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms, with high Sierra snow showers, will continue into the evening.

* Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon, but chances and coverage decrease from today.

* Warmer and drier weather prevails Wednesday through weekend.

DISCUSSION

Deepening cumulus and a few thunderstorms in far E Lassen/N Washoe County, and across Mono, S.Lyon, and Mineral counties is noted in latest satellite and radar obs. Farther east, a cluster of thunderstorms in W Nye County is moving into Mineral County along an eastward-propagating outflow boundary. This feature will move into an increasingly unstable environment in W Nevada, maintaining thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary as it moves downstream towards the Reno/Tahoe region. While DCAPE values (200-600 J/kg) are marginal, a sharpening density current -- or temperature difference between the ambient air ahead of the outflow boundary and rain-cooled air behind it -- will pose a risk of strong to locally severe wind gusts in W Nevada along/south of US-50, especially in wind-prone locales. There is some uncertainty in how far west the outflow boundary extends, but latest CAM guidance suggests that it will reach the Reno/Tahoe Basin area between 4-6 PM PDT. Should this occur, be prepared for stormy conditions during the evening commute.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to wane post-sunset, but a few lingering showers and storms will be possible overnight south of I-80 along a southward-advancing deformation zone. Meanwhile, higher Sierra peaks (above 8000 ft) will receive 1-4" of snowfall by Tuesday AM, with a 30-50% chance of 6" along the Sierra crest in Mono County. Snowfall should remain above major open passes, so travel impacts will be minimal, if any.

The low pressure responsible for our stormy weather the last few days will translate southeastward Tuesday, shifting the focus for showers and thunderstorms to areas south of I-80 Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will overspread the region from midweek onward, resulting in dry conditions and warmer temperatures as we head into the weekend.

-Salas

AVIATION

The primary concern today will be showers and thunderstorms with a widespread 30-40% chance of a thunderstorm within 10 miles of all terminals. Thunderstorm impacts -- especially sudden, strong wind shifts -- are most likely at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV and KTRK-KTVL between 23Z and 02Z. Other impacts include frequent lightning, small hail, and brief downpours/MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm activity wanes after 03Z with some lingering showers and isolated storms overnight.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.