textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A weak weather system may bring chances for light snow showers, mainly along the Sierra Crest tonight into Wednesday morning.

* Dry conditions continue Wednesday onward with high pressure returning to the area.

* A slow, gradual warming trend into this weekend will bring above average temperatures by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough bringing a quick round of snow showers is still on track to move in the Sierra and NE CA. Peak precip probabilities early Wednesday morning will be around 40-50% for Surprise Valley, Plumas County, and western Lassen County, down to the western slopes of Tahoe. Lesser chances of up to 30% will be seen for Alpine County up through Tahoe and through the eastern portions of Lassen County. Some areas out in Pershing and northern Washoe counties also have a 30% chance to see a light snow shower. Max QPF values will range from 0.10-0.20" for this mini storm and since snow levels are going to hang around 5000 feet or below, snow amounts for the highest Sierra peaks look to be around a trace from Alpine County northward, with only 1-2 inches possible in the highest terrain in western Lassen over to Pershing County. With snow levels that low, be aware that the morning commute Wednesday morning may be slick and icy across Sierra passes, especially Donner. Southwest winds won't pose much of an issue either, only Sierra ridges may get up to 60-70 mph Wednesday morning. Once this system moves out by midday Wednesday, the clouds will dissipate and we'll return to our usual dry and calm conditions.

Wednesday onward, we'll see high pressure move in again and keep us dry and sunny through this weekend. High pressure will move in late this week, increasing temperatures to near 60 in lower valleys and upwards of 55 in Sierra communities by Saturday. This warm up will be around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Mornings will still be pretty chilly, though. Morning temps this weekend will be around 30-35 for lower valleys and 25-30 for Sierra valleys. After this week, our next best chance for precip looks to be around the 1st or 2nd of February, but confidence remains low this far out.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds will be the main story through about 06Z tonight. A brief wave of light snow showers will move in tonight and exit tomorrow morning around 14-15Z. KTRK/KTVL/KSVE have a 40- 50% chance to see snow showers, with accumulations up to 1". MVFR conditions are possible for the Sierra terminals, but are unlikely due to the intensity of the showers.

FL100 winds tonight will peak around 09Z at 40-45KT out of the southwest, although Sierra ridges could see gusts up to 60KT. Expect LLWS and turbulence over the Sierra and Sierra Front tonight through about 15Z. Dry conditions and light winds are expected the rest of Wednesday.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.