textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds overlap with low humidity for today, bringing isolated critical fire weather and recreation concerns. * Hotter temperatures this weekend will bring areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk for Saturday.

* Monsoon moisture surge starting Sunday will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

July continues to be 'so hot right now' with a trend for even hotter temperatures over the weekend. The hot and dry conditions persist today with enhanced breezes resulting in localized critical fire conditions for portions of NE CA and W NV, for more details on fire weather, check out the discussion below. Basin and Range locations will see triple digit heat and even Reno has an 80% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Saturday. This won't be record- breaking heat, but we will experience widespread Moderate to localized Major HeatRisk impacts. Check out the Heat Advisory in effect for the Nevada Basin and Range, Lyon and Mineral county for Saturday into Sunday morning. Be sure to stay hydrated with water and electrolytes, because we know that milk would be a bad choice. For more heat safety tips and precautions go to weather.gov/heat

Following the hot weekend, we reset our focus onto the pattern shift from late Sunday into the rest of next week. High pressure centers over the four corners region which promotes moist, subtropical southerly flow into the desert SW. We don't know how to put this, but monsoon moisture is kind of a big deal. Forecast soundings highlight precipitable water values starting around 0.20" Saturday then climbing into the 0.50-0.60" range Sunday and nearing 0.80" by Monday. This inundation of subtropical moisture (monsoon moisture surge) combined with the hot temperatures will leave plenty of room for convective activities, including increased potential for heavy rain and lightning with thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may start out on the drier end on Sunday with potential for lightning starts outside of wetter rain cores, but then as additional moisture crawls into the region we will transition to flash flood concerns along with the other thunderstorm risks. Have outdoor work or recreation scheduled next week? If you're not first, you're last down the mountain and in danger of deadly lightning. Have a way to receive alerts if you're in a remote area, and keep an eye on the skies as storms will have the potential to escalate quickly!

-Edan

AVIATION

VFR conditions persist with west/southwest gusts 20-30kt through 3z Saturday. FL100 winds increase to 30-35kt over the Sierra between Sat 0z-9z tonight as surface winds weaken, giving way to some pockets of LLWS and light turbulence over the Sierra. The typical light westerly winds and dry conditions resume Saturday afternoon.

Preview for next week: Thunderstorm chances return to the southern Sierra, KMMH, as early as Sunday afternoon. More widespread potential for thunderstorms and showers arrives Monday and Tuesday with a monsoon moisture surge.

-Edan

FIRE WEATHER

* Dry and hot afternoons prevail this weekend, with minimum RH values in the single digits for much of western NV (near 5% at times along & east of US-95) and eastern Lassen County, with 10- 15% for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and near the OR border. Overnight humidity recovery remain poor for much of western NV and some midslope/thermal belt regions, with maximum RH values only around 20-30%.

* Increased upper level SW-W flow over the Sierra this afternoon will boost surface afternoon wind gusts into the 30-35 mph range. Plan on several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions across parts of eastern Lassen/northern Washoe counties southward into the western NV Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from 2 PM to 9 PM. Winds will be elevated Saturday afternoon, but with only 1-3 hours of critical conditions expected.

* Monsoon moisture surge forecast for next week from Sunday into Tuesday will usher shower and thunderstorm chances back into the Eastern Sierra and western Nevada, along with much of the Southwest. First round of storms Sunday may be on the dry side with potential for starts outside of wetter rain cores, but storms will quickly become quite wet Monday into Tuesday with a higher heavy rain risk.

-Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-458.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.