textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Typical afternoon breezes today will increase on Wednesday, producing minor fire, recreation, and travel impacts.

* Low pressure brings a low chance of rain and thunderstorms to areas near the Oregon border Wednesday and Thursday.

* Warm and dry weather is favored Friday through the weekend. Chances of rain and breezy winds may return early next week.

DISCUSSION

A dry and mild weather pattern remains in place today with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s, which is about on par for mid-September. Typical west breezes return this afternoon with gusts reaching 25-30 mph. Dry and breezy conditions may support brief elevated fire concerns along the Sierra Front in the afternoon.

A compact upper low will dig into northern California on Wednesday before lifting northeast to the northern Rockies on Thursday. In response, winds will increase from the Tahoe-Reno area south to Mono and Mineral Counties Wednesday afternoon, yielding S-SW gusts around 30-35 mph. A few windier spots (i.e., US-395 between Mammoth and Mono Lake) may see gusts of 40-45 mph. Meanwhile, Sierra ridges will be gusting to 50 mph at times Wednesday night into Thursday morning. These winds will overlap RH reductions to 7-15%, which should support a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across far W Nevada into Mono County. Other potential wind impacts include choppy lakes, gusty crosswinds along US-395/I-580 between Reno and Mammoth, and bumpier flights in/over the Sierra. Also, lingering gusty winds will contribute to a chilly, brisk morning for higher Sierra elevations on Thursday.

Farther north, chances of rain showers increase to 10-20% Wednesday afternoon across portions of Lassen County into the Surprise Valley and far N Washoe County. Weak instability and moisture will also support a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few showers may develop farther south closer to I-80 on Wednesday, but will be dependent on the eventual track of the low pressure. Low (10-20%) shower and thunderstorm chances linger through Thursday, but will be confined to areas near the Oregon border.

A dry frontal passage is expected Friday as the low pressure departs the region. East to northeast breezes will develop in its wake, becoming gusty at times along and west of the Sierra crest. Weak high pressure moves over the region late this week, allowing warm and dry weather to prevail Friday through the weekend. Another low pressure passage increases the potential for breezy winds and showers to return early next week, but confidence remains low.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions prevail today, with light morning winds becoming SW-W gusts at 20-25 kt after 19Z. Winds are expected to increase on Wednesday, lending to LLWS concerns and mountain wave turbulence along the eastern Sierra.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.