textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with a 10% chance for additional thunderstorms this weekend.

* Colder with additional rain and mountain snow this weekend. Highest snowfall rates Saturday night with Sierra Pass travel difficulties.

* Gusty winds today through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

* Despite the unprecedented March warmth, winter isn't going down without a fight. A series of storms will push through northern CA/NV this weekend bringing significantly cooler and wetter weather to the region, in addition to gusty winds.

* Today, we are under an area of upper level divergence and decent shear ahead of the leading edge of our first wave. This is leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms already ongoing across the region, with thunderstorms chances increasing further this afternoon as we destabilize with peak afternoon heating. Per the latest mesoanalysis, the greatest risk will be in northern Washoe Co, shifting eastward into Pershing, Churchill, and Northern Lyon Counties by mid afternoon. The other spot to watch will be the Sierra into northeast CA for stronger storm potential. In the aforementioned areas, there is a 10-15% chance to see severe storms, aka winds 58+ mph or hail 1+" or greater. Elsewhere, there is a 5% chance for severe storms. Also on the table will be snow pellet showers, something April and May are known for in these convective regimes.

* Additional rain and snow showers Saturday as the first wave moves through the area. Snow levels will dip to 6000-6500 feet late tonight into early Saturday, before the deep southerly flow increases daytime snow levels closer to 7000 feet. There will also be a 10% chance for afternoon thunderstorms Saturday.

* Saturday night into Sunday, a cold, deep trough shifts into the region with snow levels crashing and heavy snow falling in the Sierra. Latest high resolution guidance is showing period of snowfall rates reaching 2-3"/hour Saturday night in the Sierra. Anticipate slow and difficult travel over Sierra passes as roads will rapidly become snow covered. For the latest forecast snow totals with this storm, please see the current Winter Storm Warnings.

* Snow levels will be low enough for snow in foothill locations early Sunday morning around western Nevada, a 30-50% for up to 1" of accumulation above 5000 feet, including Virginia City. There's a 10% chance snow will mix with rain for the lowest valleys as well, but given the recent warmth, only a 2% chance for anything to accumulate. The limiting factor will be the dwindling moisture availability by this point.

* A few showers to linger into Monday morning with rather chilly temperatures. If you have any sensitive vegetation and/or irrigation, be sure to protect these items as near freezing temperatures are expected in even the warmer valleys, with hard freezes outside of urban areas.

* Looking into next week -- drier and warmer conditions to kick off next week, but another storm brushes across northern Nevada mid- week, followed by another trough the following weekend. -Dawn

AVIATION

* Showers and thunderstorms today with mountain obscuration and wind shear. Storms bring the risk of wind gusts in excess of 45 kts, hail, snow pellets, and localized heavy rainfall.

* FL100 S-SW winds sustained around 30 kts today, increasing to 45 kts Saturday. This will translate to winds gusting 20-30 kts at terminal sites in absence of any thunderstorm outflow influences.

* Additional showers to linger into Saturday, with increasing snow rates in the Sierra Saturday night and several inches of accumulation by Sunday at all Sierra terminals. W NV terminals will primarily be rain, but could see some snow mix with rain late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Chances for any accumulation are less than 5% for KRNO, and 10% for KCXP/KMEV.

-Dawn

AVALANCHE

* Spring storm to bring widespread showers to the Sierra today, with a 90% chance for rain/snow in SAC terrain and a 40-60% chance in ESAC and BAC terrain. Snow levels to hover near 7.5kft in SAC terrain and upwards of 8kft in ESAC/BAC areas, with snow ratios generally 6-9:1. Accumulations through tonight of 1-5" with gusty S-SW winds of 60-80 mph at ridgelines and 35-45 mph for lower exposed elevations.

* Saturday-Monday Morning: Snow levels below 6.5 kft by Saturday morning, increasing to around 7 kft by the afternoon before dropping below 6 kft by early Sunday morning. Snow ratios of 8- 10:1 Saturday before increasing to around 12:1 by Sunday as colder air moves in.

* Peak snowfall rates Saturday evening for SAC and overnight for BAC/ESAC. Rates could exceed 2-3"/hour for a period of time in the high Sierra. Storm total SWE of 2.0-2.50" along the Sierra crest for the Tahoe Basin with 1.5-2.0" for Mono county. Snowfall totals up to 3 feet along the Sierra crest in the Tahoe Basin with up to 2 feet for the crest in Mono county. Strong and gusty south-southwest winds are expected on Saturday with ridgetop gusts of 80-100 mph expected. -Dawn/Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ071.

Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ072-073.