textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild weather will persist across the region through the upcoming weekend.

* Temperatures will trend well above seasonal averages, with some western Nevada locations possibly reaching the 70s by Sunday.

* A significant pattern change is expected mid next week, bringing increased chances for precipitation and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

For today, forecast guidance projects a weak upper trough passing through the region this morning with an upper ridge moving in behind the trough later today. Overnight cloud cover will move along eastward with the departing trough, leaving mostly sunny skies and dry conditions for the region. Daytime high temperatures will range between the mid-50s and the lower 60s in western NV valleys and between the lower to mid-50s in Sierra communities. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be within a few degrees of those experienced the previous night.

Going into the weekend: the upper ridge builds over the region on Friday and Saturday before a passing Canadian trough passes to north on Sunday, suppressing the ridge a bit and giving the region a zonal flow aloft. With this pattern above, the region expects dry weather to continue with area temperatures trending warmer and reaching up to around 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of the year by Sunday. High temperatures for Sunday currently are forecast in the mid-60s to around the 70 degree mark in western NV and northeastern CA valleys and in the lower to mid-60s in the Sierra. The latest run of the NBM shows that both Reno and Carson City have a 30-50% chance of hitting the 70 degree mark on Sunday afternoon.

For next week, dry conditions look to persist Monday and Tuesday with area high temperatures cooling slightly by a few degrees. Ensemble guidance then shows the weather pattern changing on Veterans Day as an upper trough builds in the Pacific. Model solutions diverge with how they deal with this trough adding to the uncertainty in details at this time. But this signals the return of precipitation chances midweek and possibly through the rest of the week. The latest guidance from the CPC shows a moderate (40-60%) risk for heavy snow in the Sierra for 11/12-15. When looking at the CW3E's atmospheric river landfall tool, it does project some good amount of moisture heading towards the region during the latter half of next week. We'll be keeping an eye on this potential precipitation, so please stay tuned as forecast details become clearer. But for now: keep in mind that wetter, cooler, and windier weather could be in store for the second half of next week. -078

AVIATION

Area cameras show FZFG moving near KTRK this morning similar to the last few mornings, causing LIFR conditions once again. This may last through around 05/17Z. Aside from that, VFR conditions are expected today for area TAF sites with skies clearing up a bit through the day. Low confidence on a return of FZFG to the Northern Sierra valleys tonight due to drier weather, but will monitor conditions and amend TAFs if needed. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.