textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today across the Sierra and Sierra Front.
* Showers and thunderstorms continue this weekend with more persistent mountain snow for the Tahoe area and eastern Sierra Saturday night into Sunday.
* Showery weather is favored to continue into next week with drier conditions possible late next week.
DISCUSSION
Current satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds starting to bubble up, mainly south of US-50 this afternoon. This will be the best area for shower and thunderstorm development, with the highest chances for thunderstorms along the higher terrain (15-20% chance). Storms that develop today, mainly after 4pm, will be capable of brief heavy rain and pellet showers.
The longwave trough pattern that we're in for the next week will shuttle in snow chances above 8000' Saturday night for Alpine county and southward. Snow levels drop to 6000' Sunday morning, which will bring slick mountain roads. Snowfall accumulations are 6 inches at best along the highest terrain, with a 20-30% chance for 1 inch or more of snow along US-395 by Sunday morning. Snow that accumulates on roadways will melt off as the sun rises so travel delays will be short-lived.
Winds will be enhanced Saturday and Sunday due to the passage of the shortwave trough, with gusts up to 30 mph overnight. Ridgetop gusts may reach up to 50 mph. Sunday will also be the coldest day of the week, with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s for valleys and mid 40s for Sierra communities. The longwave trough pattern will keep daily shower chances through at least Wednesday, with 10-15% chance for thunder. A warming trend will also accompany this, with highs back up to the low 70s (valleys) and low 60s (Sierra) by Wednesday.
-Giralte
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail through at least the next 24 hours, though brief periods of rain and pellet showers may bring sub MVFR conditions, most notably at KTRK/KTVL/KMEV this evening. Mountain obscurations will also be likely for the aforementioned areas.
Thunderstorm chances peak at 20% this afternoon, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms (10-15%) through at least Tuesday of next week.
-Giralte
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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