textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Much colder temperatures and dry weather prevails this weekend with potential for freezing fog in the Sierra.
* Quiet weather with morning inversions leading to air stagnation is expected next week over western NV valleys.
* There is potential for the next storm system on New Years Day through next weekend, but the system looks weak compared to the last one.
DISCUSSION
A gentle north breeze sets up today as we're on the edge of a cold airmass that's dipping south and east of western NV. With this colder air working its way in, it'll bring our high and low temperatures down to 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. Morning lows in the Sierra tomorrow and Monday could see lows in the single digits! Nevada valleys those mornings will be a chilly 20 degrees, so make sure to bundle up! We'll warm up each day after Monday into late-week with highs reaching up to 50 degrees and lows near 30.
Light winds will prevail this week, causing morning valley inversions and stagnant air starting Sunday and going through at least Wednesday. We'll be keeping an eye on the freezing fog potential Sunday morning too for Sierra valleys with the combination of clear skies, light winds, and recent snowfall. As of right now, there's a 40-50% chance for freezing fog each morning through mid-week.
Looking ahead to Thursday and beyond, high pressure moves out and the storm door potentially opens up again. Ensembles show a 500mb negative height anomaly moving in towards the end of the week and staying off the coast through next weekend. Ensembles and long range models are still in great disagreement though, so timing and placement of any storms remains uncertain.
-Justin
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for much of the region over the next 24 hours, characterized by light winds and FEW to SCT mid- to-high level clouds. Another round of FZFG is possible for Sierra valleys between 08-17Z Sunday, bringing likely IFR/LIFR impacts to KTRK and potentially KTVL. While there is currently a 40-50% probability of FZFG, the development may be inhibited by an increase in mid-to-high level cloud cover arriving between 06-19Z Sunday.
-Johnston
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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