textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather prevails through the middle of next week with warmer than normal daytime temperatures this weekend.

* Periods of increased breezes will pose minor impacts to aviation and recreation this weekend into early next week.

* A wetter and windier pattern remains on track to arrive late next week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will extend our ongoing stretch of dry and mild weather into the middle of next week, making for an ideal weekend to spend time outdoors. Daytime highs warm to the 60s and low 70s over the weekend, which is about 5-10 degrees warmer than normal for early November. While nights and early mornings won't be as cold this weekend, cold-prone locales (e.g. Truckee, Bridgeport, Bodie, Minden) will remain chilly each night as temperatures fall near/below freezing.

Breezy afternoon winds return this weekend and early next week in response to a couple trough passages to the north. Areas near the Oregon border are favored for strongest SW/W gusts of 25-30 mph Saturday afternoon, with gusts to 15-20 mph elsewhere. Ridgetop winds from the Tahoe Basin northward will also become gusty (up to 40-50 mph) at times through Monday. Wind impacts should be minimal, but flights may be a bit more bumpy and mornings in the higher Sierra backcountry might be more brisk.

A pattern change is still on track to deliver wetter and windier weather late next week, increasing the potential for impacts to recreation and air/ground travel through the weekend (Nov 14/15). However, this pattern change is not without its uncertainties. Shower chances begin to increase late Thursday into Friday, but this is likely a reflection of a weaker trough passage that has proven to be more variable in its path/timing. This is also likely the culprit behind a delayed onset of unsettled weather. Conversely, there has been a relatively more consistent signal for a stronger Pacific storm to bring heavier rain, Sierra snow, and gusty winds over the November 14/15 weekend, perhaps extending into the following week. The Climate Prediction Center corroborates this as they have added a moderate (40-60% chance) risk of heavy snow along the Sierra for that weekend. Ensembles suggest that additional storms are possible during the week of November 16, but of course confidence is much lower at that extended range.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions prevail through the weekend, with light east breezes today. Stout inversions and morning haze may reduce slantwise visibilities each morning. SW FL100 winds begin to increase on Sunday, which may induce periods of minor LLWS and mountain wave turbulence issues at KTRK-KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.