textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Mild and dry weather is expected through Friday.

* Cooler temperatures and increased winds are likely over the weekend, making for brisk weather for outdoor activities.

* A warming trend next week will bring a return of above average temperatures for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows a west- northwesterly flow over the CWA this morning as an upper low moves into MT. Going through today and tomorrow, models show a westerly, zonal flow over the CWA as the departing low moves further east. Dry conditions are to be expected with this pattern aloft today and Friday. Daytime high temperatures for the area will cool a few degrees each day, but are forecast in the 70s and 80s, which is still around 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. Lighter winds compared to those experienced on Wednesday are forecast with typical afternoon breezes.

Over the weekend, model guidance projects an upper trough moving in the NW CONUS on Saturday and deepening over the Great Basin on Sunday. This pattern will cause a series of cold fronts to pass through the region, which will cool temperatures and enhance winds. Daytime highs for the region look to be in the 60s and 70s on Saturday before dropping down to the 50s and 60s on Sunday (which is around 5-15 degrees below normal for this time of the year). NE CA and W NV valleys will see low temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s range on Saturday night followed by the lower to upper 30s range on Sunday night. Overnight low temperatures for Sierra communities are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Saturday and lower 20s to lower 30s on Sunday. As for the winds increasing, there is still some uncertainty between models in timing of frontal passages which would affect some of the wind details. However, these winds will be out of the north on both days and have potential for gusts to exceed 30 mph (particularly on Sunday). This could cause travel and maritime impacts within the area, so please watch for further updates in case a product such as a Lake Wind Advisory needs to be issued for the weekend. While mostly dry conditions are anticipated on Saturday and Sunday, there is a low chance (<15%) for a shower or two in eastern Pershing and Churchill Counties early Sunday.

On Monday and going into the middle of next week, forecast guidance has the trough making its way farther east with an upper ridge trailing it. This will allow for more dry conditions and a warming trend to start. Area high temperatures currently are forecast to return to the 70s and 80s by at least Wednesday. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are anticipated for all area TAF sites today and tonight. Dry conditions are in the forecast and afternoon winds may gust up around 20-25 kts. Similar conditions are expected on Friday, followed by increasing winds over the weekend due with a series of cold front passages. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.