textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty winds will pose fire and lake recreation impacts this afternoon. Typical afternoon breezes return after today.

* Seasonably hot and dry weather prevails through midweek with very low chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week.

* Hotter temperatures are expected late this week into next weekend, increasing the potential for heat impacts.

DISCUSSION

A seasonably hot, dry, and breezy weather pattern remains in place through midweek as strong high pressure to the east directs dry, southwesterly flow into the region. W/SW gusts of 25-35 mph will once again mix down to areas from the Oregon border south along the Sierra Front today, renewing fire and lake recreation impacts this afternoon. After today, winds weaken to a more typical 20-30 mph each afternoon. Otherwise, typical July heat continues through Tuesday with daytime highs in the 80s to mid-90s.

Moisture aloft continues to be displaced east of the region today, but forecast soundings suggest there may be just enough residual moisture to support isolated showers/virga in S Mono and Mineral counties this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected as this moisture is likely too shallow. The upcoming week is favored to be a rather dry one as chances of showers and thunderstorms stay below 5% through next weekend. A couple of weak trough passages around midweek may posses enough lift/moisture to yield a stray shower or storm near the Oregon border, but there is much higher confidence in dry weather prevailing this week.

A warming trend remains on track for the second half of the week as high pressure retrogrades towards the Four Corners region. Triple digit heat may return to lower elevations valleys as early as Wednesday with higher chances of 100F+ heat Thursday into next weekend. While shy of record-breaking, these temperatures will increase the potential for heat impacts to health as we head into August so be sure to make plans accordingly.

-Salas

AVIATION

Gusty W/SW winds and minor LLWS impacts remain the primary concern today and Monday with surface gusts reaching 20-30 kts each afternoon. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions prevail over the next several days.

Triple digit heat may return to western Nevada terminals towards the end of the week, increasing the potential of density altitude impacts.

-Salas

FIRE WEATHER

A brief 2-5 hour overlap of marginally critical W/SW winds (sustained 10-20 mph, gusts of 30-35 mph) and RH reductions to 5-15% should unfold this afternoon across far NE California and NW Nevada. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 1 PM until 9 PM PDT today for these areas. Nighttime recoveries will be moderate to poor in these areas each night, which may allow fires to actively burn overnight -- especially in W NV where RH struggles to exceed 20-30%.

Winds weaken to near/sub-critical levels after today, but will still become breezy each afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph. Along with hot and dry conditions, these winds may briefly support areas of elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon this week. A warming and drying trend is favored late this week into next weekend, yielding 90F and 100F+ heat with teen and single digit min RH, and poor nighttime recoveries spreading into higher elevations. Some notable potential impacts from this include: drier vegetation -- especially heavier fuels, heat stress/exhaustion to fire suppression personnel, and deeper vertical plume growth on new/existing fires.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-458.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.