textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty ridge winds and chances for light snow showers continue this morning with a weak weather system moving through the area.

* Dry conditions resume later this afternoon and persist through the rest of the week with high pressure returning to the area.

* A slow, gradual warming trend into this weekend will bring above average temperatures by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern depicts a shortwave trough currently over N CA with the axis of an upper ridge to the east of it over UT. The shortwave feature is responsible for the ongoing light snow showers as well as gusty winds this morning. According to the latest run of the RRFS, the morning precipitation chances start to taper off around 6 AM PT and are completely out of the CWA by 8 AM PT. The remaining snow chances spread from the OR border down to around Alpine, Douglas, Lyon, & N Mineral Counties. Areas that expect to see additional snowfall accumulation this morning are higher elevations in NE CA and the Northern Sierra as 0.1-0.2 inch per hour snowfall rates are possible at the Sierra pass level through at least 5 AM PT. Other portions of the CWA that see showers expect minimal to no snowfall accumulation this morning. Some of our sites are experiencing lower visibilities with these snow showers particularly in NE CA and around the Tahoe Basin, so please use caution if traveling this morning. Roads and surfaces during the morning commute may also be slick or icy with the cold temperatures and recent snowfall. While southwesterly ridge winds gusting up to around 60-70 kts continue this morning, model guidance shows the shortwave over the NV/UT border by the afternoon hours today allowing the winds to begin to decrease. Also on the decrease will be the cloud cover starting in the late morning with the system moving out. Daytime high temperatures for today are forecast to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s range for the W NV valleys with Sierra communities ranging between the middle 30s and the middle 40s. Overnight lows tonight look to be generally in the 20s to lower 30s range with the exception of some Sierra communities that may drop down as low as the middle teens.

For the remainder of the week, a high pressure ridge builds over the western CONUS allowing for another dry period and a warming trend. By Saturday, daytime highs are forecast to have raised by ~10 degrees compared to what is experienced today. However, overnight low temperatures may only climb by ~5 degrees by the weekend compared to tonight's lows and be in the 20s and 30s. While the winds should be mostly light and variable through the rest of the week, the high pressure does not look to keep cloud cover away with models showing some amount of clouds virtually each day. Another thing to mention is the possibility of freezing fog developing during the overnight hours over the next few days in the Sierra and Martis Valleys due to the recent precipitation. Be prepared for this potential hazard if you are traveling through these areas.

To begin next week (and February), extended guidance shows a weak trough moving through the NW CONUS on Sunday and early Monday allowing for a cold front to move through the area along with some low precipitation chances to return to areas closer to the OR border. Low confidence currently on these as model to model runs still have been showing some good uncertainty, but not anticipating any major impacts at this time. By late Monday going through midweek, long-term guidance projects another high pressure ridge building causing another dry period along with the warming trend to continue following a brief and slight drop in temperatures on Monday. -078

AVIATION

As the wintry system moves through the region this morning, most area TAF sites (KMMH being the exception) will have vicinity light shower chances continue through around 12-13Z. KTRK and KTVL will see temporary IFR conditions when a snow shower occurs near the terminals. LLWS and turbulence over the Sierra and Sierra Front continue this morning until around 15Z with the system departing to the east. Light winds and dry conditions are forecast for the rest of today following the system and going through the overnight hours. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.