textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild weather continues through Thursday, with breezy conditions and rough conditions on Lake Tahoe Thursday night.

* A storm brings strong winds Friday, then valley rain, and heavy, wet Sierra snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

* A colder but weaker storm brings mountain snow Monday. Another storm may follow Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Today and Thursday:

* Expect sunny and mild weather the rest of this afternoon and Thursday, with highs in the 60s to near 70 in the lower valleys. Tonight will be clear and chilly.

* We have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Tahoe from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM Friday. Winds above the surface ahead of the storm mix down to the lake Thursday night, hours before they reach the lower valleys of western Nevada. Southwest gusts up to 35 mph will generate 2 to 5 foot waves, highest on the north and east shores.

First Storm - Friday into Saturday Morning:

* Wind comes first on Friday, strongest from late morning through the afternoon. Wind Advisories remain in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM. For the Reno-Carson City-Minden area and Lassen, eastern Plumas, and eastern Sierra counties, expect gusts up to 55 mph, and up to 65 mph in wind prone spots along US-395 and I-580. For the Basin and Range, Pyramid Lake, and Mineral and southern Lyon counties, expect gusts up to 45 mph, raised to 55 mph for wind prone areas along US-50 and US-95, with 2 to 4 foot waves on Pyramid Lake. A High Wind Watch remains for far northern Washoe County and the Surprise Valley, with gusts up to 65 mph possible. Sierra ridge gusts could reach 70 to 90 mph around Tahoe, up from our earlier forecast, and 60 to 80 mph in Mono County.

* Strong winds may also kick up blowing dust from dry lake beds and desert sinks such as the Carson and Humboldt Sinks and the Smoke Creek and Black Rock Deserts. Travel will be rough for trucks, trailers, and RVs, due to the strong winds.

* Rain and snow move into the Sierra Friday afternoon, heaviest from about 4 PM to midnight. Snow levels fall from 7500 feet to near 6000 feet by evening and 5000 to 5500 feet by early Saturday, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour above 7000 feet. Winter Storm Watches remain for the Tahoe area and Mono County, and we increased snow amounts this afternoon. Around Tahoe, expect near 12 inches above 7000 feet, up to 20 inches along the crest, and 3 to 6 inches at lake level. Mono County could see 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet, up from about a foot earlier, and up to 6 inches between 6000 and 7000 feet. Travel is not advised during this time, but if you must, carry chains and a winter kit, and check CalTrans QuickMap and NVRoads.

* Reno, Carson City, and Minden can expect a third to a half inch of rain, with a quarter inch or less farther east. Watch for ponding on roads. The storm clears Saturday, followed by a dry Sunday morning and early afternoon with highs in the 40s to near 50.

Second Storm - Late Sunday Night through Monday:

* The second storm is colder but weaker, and confidence is lower than with Friday's storm. Most of the rain and snow looks to fall late Sunday night through Monday, but models still disagree on how far offshore the low stays and how quickly it moves inland. That creates a wide range of possible outcomes. A faster track closer to the coast would bring more snow at Lake Tahoe and the Eastern Sierra, while a slower track farther offshore would keep amounts light. Plan for possible slick travel over Sierra passes late Sunday into Monday, and check back as the details come into better focus.

Mid-to-Late Next Week:

* Another storm may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Models range from light amounts to a quarter to half inch of precipitation, so confidence is low. Stay tuned.

-Johnston

AVIATION

* KRNO: VFR conditions through Thursday, with valley inversions reducing slantwise visibilities during the morning hours. On Friday, S-SW wind gusts of 30-40 kts are likely from 18Z-03Z, with turbulence and LLWS. Rain showers 00Z-09Z Sat may bring brief MVFR conditions.

* Elsewhere: Ridgetop winds increase Thursday night, with chances for LLWS at KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH after 02Z Fri. On Friday, gusts of 30-40 kts are likely at KCXP and KMEV, and 40-50 kts at KMMH. Sierra ridge gusts of 60-80 kts will bring mountain waves and turbulence over and east of the Sierra.

* For Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, expect areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow, with widespread mountain obscurations. Snow becomes dominant at KTRK and KTVL after 03-06Z Sat, with IFR/LIFR conditions and runway accumulations likely. Conditions improve by Saturday afternoon. Another round of mountain snow with MVFR/IFR at KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH is possible late Sunday into Monday.

-Johnston

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ005.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Friday NVZ001-003-004.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday NVZ002.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning NVZ002.

CA...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening CAZ070.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Friday CAZ071.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday CAZ072.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning CAZ072.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning CAZ073.