textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds will pose fire and recreation concerns each afternoon through Saturday.

* Increasing temperatures into the weekend will bring areas of moderate to locally major HeatRisk for Saturday.

* A monsoonal pattern may increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

DISCUSSION

The summer time pattern of recent has featured subtle ridging to our south with the Aleutian Low spinning on the Gulf of Alaska kicking shortwaves into the periphery of the ridge. This is the case again today, with an increased afternoon gusts as the noticeable effect. We will see gusts reaching 30-35 mph today, with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s and isolated areas near 100 for western Nevada. Sierra valleys will see highs in the 80s, with locations along US-395 climbing toward 90. The warming trend will continue as the weekend approaches, with yet another wrinkle of a shortwave in the flow increasing afternoon gusts again for Friday. These elevated winds will bring impacts to recreation, such as choppy lakes in the afternoons. Additionally, localized areas of elevated fire weather concerns today due to low relative humidities aligning with the timing of the afternoon gusts arrive this afternoon and again for Friday afternoon. See the Fire Weather section of this discussion for details.

As we heat up into the weekend, anticipate isolated areas of Major HeatRisk across the warmer valleys of western Nevada, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the majority of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada for Saturday. This warming trend will be on the decline Sunday into Monday as yet another shortwave spins off the parent Aleutian Low and migrates toward our region. A nudge in the center of the ridge circulation to our east may allow a monsoonal flow to set up for midweek, but confidence is low on timing and location with variance in model solutions at this time. HRICH

AVIATION

* Widespread VFR across the region with increasing afternoon westerly gusts 25-30 kts. Thursday will have VFR conditions with afternoon westerly gusts 20-25 kts. Friday will be similar to today, with westerly afternoon gusts returning to 25-30 kts. HRICH

FIRE WEATHER

* Increasing afternoon westerly gusts of 30-35 mph today will align with areas of low RH (6-15%) for the Sierra Front, Basin and Range and isolated valleys along the Sierra. This will bring a couple hours of isolated elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. Similar conditions return for Friday. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.