textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather, light winds, and unseasonably warm temperatures continue through this weekend with near-record highs on Saturday.

* Hazy skies and minor reductions in air quality possible each morning across lower urban valleys along with patchy freezing fog in Sierra basins.

* A pattern change is expected mid-next week, bringing increased winds and slight chances for precipitation primarily to the Sierra and northeast California.

DISCUSSION

A high pressure area remains in place over the western US leading to hazy mornings in western NV valleys, and low clouds and periods of fog and freezing fog in Sierra valleys due to the clear skies and light winds keeping the airmass trapped in place. The chance for fog is about 20-40%. However, we may have some slightly stronger winds at the Sierra crest that may help inhibit the formation of Sierra fog/low clouds, along with some mid to high level clouds reaching the northern Tahoe Basin per the HREF.

Next week, we have an initial shortwave trough approaching the region on Tuesday into Wednesday which would increase our precipitation chances as it is also pulling moisture from an atmospheric river. Mainly affecting portions of the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin into NE CA. Current guidance is showing less than 0.25 inches for western NV and Mono, 0.40-0.80 inches for the Sierra and NE CA, and up to 1-1.25 inches for the Sierra crest near the Tahoe Basin. Snow levels are high above 8500 ft, so snow shower will be limited to the highest peaks. Precipitation chances are around 10-40% for western NV and Mono Co., while the best chances will be for the Tahoe Basin and NE CA with a 30-70% chance.

Beyond mid-week, the pattern is still hinting at wetter conditions as the edge of the storm track appears to drop towards northern NV and CA. However, looking at the ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC there is still a lot of disagreement with solutions ranging from nothing (which are the least amount of members) to low amounts of precipitation (this is your best bet at the moment) to significant amounts which is somewhere in between the last two scenarios. Anyway, as we start getting closer to a busy travel period, keep an eye out on the forecast as it is getting busier weather-wise. Also if you are planning on outdoor activities, you may want to consider some backup plans just in case. For now, the trend in the long term is hinting at wetter and warmer than usual.

-HC

AVIATION

FG and FZFG continue over the Tahoe Basin with a 20% chance of it continuing through tomorrow. There is a possibility of it not happening due to slightly stronger winds at the ridgetops and some thicker mid-level cloud cover aloft overnight. Otherwise, continue to expect hazy western NV valleys resulting in slantwise VIS reductions through another morning.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.