textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail early this week.

* Cooler and more unsettled weather remains likely during the second half of this week, but confidence is low on details.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP upper air analysis shows an upper ridge over the Western CONUS with a trough well off to the west over the Pacific Ocean. Current satellite imagery and surface observations report dry conditions and light winds underneath high clouds in the area this morning. Model forecast guidance has the ridge persisting through today allowing for the dry conditions as well as the current warming trend to continue. Valley portions of W NV and NE CA have high temperatures today ranging between lower to middle 70s while Sierra communities will be in the lower to middle 60s range. Overnight low temperatures even expect to be a few degrees warmer when compared to those experienced during the previous night.

For tomorrow, models are showing a weak disturbance passing through the region during the day within the ridging pattern. A weak surface trough associated with this disturbance passes through the region which will translate to some breezy westerly winds. The Sierra Ridges have around a 50-60% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph on Monday with lower elevations in the Sierra Front having a 10-20% chance for the same. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected once again along with daytime high temperatures continuing to warm by a few degrees. The dry pattern continues through Tuesday as well with the region seeing mostly similar daytime temperatures compared to those forecast for Monday.

The weather pattern does look to change by Wednesday as an upper low is projected to move closer to the N CA coast. While there is still uncertainty in details with this low (track, timing, general evolution), models are showing increased chances (>15%) for precipitation on each day for the rest of the week. A potential cold front passage on Wednesday also will allow for cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week compared to the former half. Will be monitoring how this all pans out as there could be some afternoon thunderstorms (~15% chance or less) with these late week precipitation chances in the Sierra and NE CA. With the temperatures cooling in the tail end of the week, measurable snowfall also could potentially be seen at the Sierra crest though not seeing impactful amounts at this time. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions expect to continue today for all area TAF sites. While area winds look to be lighter today compared to yesterday, Sierra Front terminals will have northwesterly winds up to around 10 kts this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast going into the beginning of the work week, followed by a potential pattern change on Wednesday. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.