textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* High elevation snow (above 8500') and rain showers linger along the Sierra today before pushing eastward into W NV.

* Break in active weather Friday before a second, stronger system moves into the area late Friday night, continuing through at least Sunday.

* Additional storms could keep valley rain and mountain snow chances going through early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

As of about midnight, light showers are pushing northward across W NV with light showers in the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin and northward. Mono county is a bit shadowed out this morning but as the low off the coast of SoCal tracks inland, the potential for spillover heightens. It's quite cold out there, though we have significantly warmed up to 32 and above across some valley locations. Thus, the threat for freezing rain has decreased. However, spots may still be slick overnight and into this morning so exhibit caution when driving.

Showers will hang on to the Sierra through about sunset today, with snow levels dropping below 8000' by or around noon. Expect lingering rain showers for the Sierra Front and W NV today, with any and all precip out of the area by midnight. We will see a break in precip through much of the day Friday before a second, colder storm moves onshore from the Pacific. Snow is expected to start in the Sierra of NE CA late Friday night (~1am Saturday), reaching the Tahoe Basin and parts of Mono county by around 5am Saturday. This system will continue through much of Sunday as well. For more details on amounts, rates, and snow levels, please see the avalanche discussion below.

Sierra Front communities will likely see rain much of Saturday, though snow for foothill communities, like Virginia City, isn't out of the question. Despite the lower snow levels, there remains a threat for flooding for much of NE CA with the CNRFC forecasting the Susan River to hit minor flood stage by Saturday. As such, we have issued a Flood Watch for the area from 11am Saturday through 4pm Monday. Please see the product for more details.

Saturday looks to be the windiest day of the week with widespread gusts up to 40 mph. Some wind prone may see gusts up to 45-50 mph while ridge winds will gust in the usual 80-100 mph range.

Active weather will continue through at least early next week with a potential third system on the heels of this second one, bringing impacts as early as Monday.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for Sierra Front terminals, though brief periods of MVFR will be possible due to -SHRA. Sierra terminals may drop to IFR/LIFR today due to -RA/-SN and low ceilings. Conditions are expected to improve after 00Z with most of the precip out of the area by then. From then onward, expect VFR conditions through much of the day Friday.

Winds will be generally light but Sierra terminals may see isolated periods of LLWS. Additionally, all terminals can expect mountain obscurations due to precip and low ceilings.

-Giralte

AVALANCHE

Two storm systems will impact all avalanche center terrain through at least Sunday.

* First storm through this afternoon: Snow levels will remain high this morning (over 9 kft) before dropping to 8 kft by noon and then to 7 kft as the precip wraps up. SLRs will be 6-8:1, bringing slushy accums of up to 6" for Mono county near Mammoth and a couple inches at most for the Tahoe Basin. Snowfall rates will remain under 1"/hr with SWE of 1.5-1.75" along the crests (0.5-1.5" elsewhere) and westerly ridge winds up to 50 mph. * Second storm early Saturday through Sunday: Snow levels start around 7-7.5 kft at the storm's onset before dropping slowly below 7 kft through Saturday and much of Sunday. Up to 3' possible along the crests with a foot near lake level and along US-395. Heaviest snowfall rates will be Saturday afternoon (up to 1"/hr) and again Sunday afternoon (rates 1"/hr+). SLRs near 8-10:1 with SWE up to 3" along the crest near the Tahoe Basin (up to 2.5" Mono county). Ridge winds will be stronger with gusts up to 100 mph.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Thursday NVZ002.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Thursday CAZ071>073.

Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon CAZ071.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning CAZ072-073.