textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Mild and dry weather with periods of breezy winds are expected through early next week.

* A wetter and windier pattern remains favored to arrive around and after Veterans Day.

DISCUSSION

Mild and dry weather looks to be the story for the region through the weekend as the latest forecast guidance projects a high pressure ridge over the SW CONUS. Area temperatures will trend warmer each day and reach up to around 5-10 degrees above normal for early November by Sunday. High temperatures for Sunday currently are forecast in the mid-60s to around the 70 degree mark in western NV and northeastern CA valleys and in the lower to mid-60s in the Sierra. The latest run of the NBM shows that both Reno and Carson City have a 20-40% chance of hitting the 70 degree mark on Sunday afternoon, which is a slightly lesser chance than that seen in previous NBM runs. Forecast model soundings continue to show inversions each morning, which signals hazy skies especially in areas near prescribed burns. Portions of the region closer to the OR border could see afternoon winds gusting up to 20-30 mph over the weekend due to passing troughs well to the north. Early next week, model guidance shows a weak upper trough moving through the region, allowing for daytime high temperatures to drop a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday.

By midweek, ensemble guidance projects a trough moving into the Pacific that looks to reside near the west coast through the remainder of the week. This signals a change to wetter and windier weather for the second half of next week, but forecast details for this upcoming system are still uncertain. Rain and mountain snow chances will return to the forecast with stronger ridgetop winds, but the exact timing of the onset of this weather is still in question as ensembles still have not come to a consensus. There is also a question of if this precipitation will come in two waves versus one main wave. Other questions include how cold the system would be (which impacts snow levels) and what the chances for spillover into western NV are. The CPC's latest hazard outlook does still show a moderate risk (40-60%) for heavy snowfall going into next weekend. So, please continue to watch for forecast updates on this upcoming system going forward especially if you have outdoor or travel activities in your plans later next week. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected again today for area TAF sites with relatively lighter winds in the region. There is low confidence in fog impacting KTRK this morning as the latest surface observations have been reporting drier conditions. Dry weather is expected for the region through the weekend with Sierra ridgetop winds gusting up to 30-40 kts during the overnight hours. Hazy skies may impact slantwise visibilities each morning though the weekend as well. -Salas/078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.