textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A slow, gradual warming trend into this weekend will bring above average temperatures by Saturday. * A weak weather system may bring chances for light snow showers, mainly along the Sierra Crest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

* Dry conditions continue Wednesday onward with high pressure returning to the area.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: High pressure will move in late this week, increasing temperatures near 60 in lower valleys and upwards of 55 in Sierra communities by Saturday. This warm up will be around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, so this warm up will be noticeable. Mornings will still be pretty chilly, though. Morning temps this weekend will be around 30-35 for lower valleys and 25-30 for Sierra valleys.

Key Message 2: A shortwave trough will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and bring a quick round of snow showers to the Sierra and NE CA. Peak snow probabilities early Wednesday morning will be around 40-50% for Surprise Valley, Plumas County, and western Lassen County, down to the western slopes of Tahoe. Lesser chances of up to 30% will be seen for Alpine County up through Tahoe and through the eastern portions of Lassen County. Max QPF values will range from 0.10-0.15" for this mini storm and since snow levels are going to hang around 5000 feet or below, snow amounts in the Sierra look to be around a trace from Alpine County northward, with only 1-2 inches possible in the highest terrain in western Lassen. With snow levels that low, be aware that the morning commute Wednesday morning may be slick and icy across Sierra passes, especially Donner. Southwest winds won't be too much of an issue for this system, only Sierra ridges may get up to 60-70 mph Wednesday morning. Once this system moves out by midday Wednesday, the clouds will dissipate and the sun will poke through once again.

Key Message 3: Wednesday onward, we'll see high pressure move in again and keep us dry and sunny through this weekend. Valley inversions may set back up towards the end of the week again with light winds expected Wednesday onward. If sensitive to air quality, I'd monitor that later this week as some valleys may build up and trap some pollutants. Our next chance for precip looks to be around the 1st or 2nd of February, but confidence remains low this far out.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds are expected for all area TAF sites today. Light snow shower chances for NE CA and the Sierra on Tuesday into Wednesday with increased ridge wind gusts up to around 60 kts. We will likely see some LLWS and turbulence Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with this system as well.

-078/Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.