textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds will pose fire and recreation impacts each afternoon through Saturday.

* Seasonably hot and dry weather prevails into the weekend with areas of moderate to locally major HeatRisk Saturday.

* A monsoonal pattern may increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

DISCUSSION

Persistent eastern Pacific troughing will finally dislodge and traverse across the Pacific Northwest states today with an attendant weak surface front entering and stalling near/just south of the Oregon border. These features will encourage another afternoon of breezy winds with W/NW gusts reaching 20-30 mph, broadly. However, a swath of 25-35 mph gusts and RH reductions to 7-15% will support elevated to briefly critical fire weather this afternoon from the Oregon border south along the Sierra Front. Breezy winds will also make for more hazardous boating conditions due to choppy lake waters -- most notably on Pyramid Lake. Otherwise, another very warm and dry July day is in store today.

For the rest of the week and weekend, the region will be positioned between deepening low pressure to the northwest and expanding high pressure to the southeast. Temperatures slowly increase through Saturday in response, culminating in daytime highs in the mid-upper 80s in the Sierra and upper 90s to triple digits for lower elevation valleys on Saturday. Moreover, nighttime lows will stay on the warmer side in western Nevada valleys over the weekend as temperatures only fall into the 60s. These temperatures will yield minor to moderate HeatRisk Friday through the weekend with major HeatRisk spreading into lowest W NV valleys on Saturday. Friday and Saturday afternoons will also feature increased breezes across far NE California and NW Nevada, renewing fire and recreation concerns in these areas.

With time, high pressure will continue to broaden across the central CONUS, allowing south to southeast flow to advect monsoonal moisture towards the region. Higher quality moisture aloft and typical July heat should increase the potential of showers and thunderstorms early next week, but there are still some questions on the location of the moisture axis and duration of the monsoonal pattern. Still, it's becoming increasingly likely that showers and thunderstorms will return next week, so be sure to check back with the latest forecast and make plans accordingly.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions prevail today with light AM winds increasing in the afternoon. Expect W/NW surface gusts of 20-30 kts at all main terminals this afternoon, becoming light in the evening.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.