textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions today across the region, with a downward trend in temperatures starting Friday.

* Increasing gusts on Friday and Saturday lead to elevated to near critical fire conditions for northeast CA and northwest NV.

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm potential returns for the NV Basin and Range, and south of US-50 Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Dry and warm weather continues today with afternoon highs in the upper 90s and around 100F. Starting tomorrow a gradual cooling trend starts as an upper trough off the West Coast starts to push inland into the PacNW. It appears that we will be in a similar routine for several days at the edge of a longwave trough. By early next week, afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s for western NV and northeast CA, and in the upper 70s to low 80s for Sierra communities.

The first push of this trough will send the upper high towards the Southern Plains. In turn, our pressure gradient will tighten at the surface Friday and Saturday, resulting in stronger westerly winds with gusts to 30-35 mph, with isolated locations potentially to 40 mph with a 10-50% chance of exceeding 40 mph on Saturday. Therefore, we have elevated fire risk on Friday, followed by critical fire weather on Saturday for portions of NE CA and NW NV. More about this in the fire section below.

The breaking of the ridge also allows for additional moisture to move northward towards western NV and the Eastern Sierra. PW increases to 0.8 to 1 inch for Mono/Mineral/Srn Lyon county and the NV Basin and Range, the rest of the area remains in the 0.6-0.8 inches. Therefore, our best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be generally in the aforementioned areas. Instability remains generally low with MUCAPE at 100-500 J/kg and shear around 20-30 kts. Thus, storms should be mostly isolated. Scattered storms have the best chances over Mineral on Saturday and eastern Churchill both on Saturday and Sunday.

The monsoonal moisture plume moves east again by Tuesday as another wave from the west moves inland potentially keeping cooler conditions along with drier weather.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions persist with afternoon gusts to 20 kts. Winds will increase on Friday, with afternoon gusts to 30 kts. Showers and storms may impact KMMH/KHTH/KBAN on Friday, with a 10-20% chance. Winds further increase Saturday with gusts to 35 kts, along with increasing shower and storm chances.

-HC

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire risk returns on Friday with an increase of west to southwesterly winds to around 30 mph and min RH around 15-20% for portions of eastern Lassen, the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe counties. Conditions deteriorate to critical by Saturday for the same area with gusts to 30-35 mph and a 40-80% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph, and similar min RH compared to Friday. Critical conditions may last for 3-6 hours between Saturday afternoon and early evening. Isolated locations in NE CA and NW NV on Saturday have a 10-50% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph. For these reasons, we are highlighting our fire weather products. We will decide later today if a Fire Weather Watch is necessary for the area.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.