textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler temperatures continue today with shower chances returning through early Tuesday morning.

* Gusty winds will bring recreation and travel impacts today along with elevated fire weather concerns.

* Temperatures will trend warmer starting Tuesday, allowing for minor to moderate HeatRisk within the region for the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis shows an upper trough over the NW CONUS this morning, which is allowing for the high cloud cover over the CWA seen in current satellite imagery. Going through today, model guidance shows another wave breaking off from the a low over the Gulf of Alaska and reinforcing the aforementioned trough. With this setup aloft, the current cooling trend continues today with W NV valley highs being in the upper 70s to lower 80s range and Sierra communities seeing highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s range. During the afternoon and going into tonight, the forecast is also calling for a ~15-35% chance for light showers in the NE CA, the Northern Sierra, and Northern Washoe County with better chances staying north of the OR border. Pershing and Churchill County also will see around 10-20% chances for showers as well during this time while the rest of the CWA stays mostly dry with precipitation chances being in the single digits. Not expecting much moisture from these showers with the resident drier air in the lower levels potentially allowing for virga over rain. But if a shower develops and precipitation does reach the ground, QPF amounts look to be a few hundredths at best.

However, the main concerns today comes from the gusty winds expected within the region. Winds start to pick up an hour or two before noon generally out of the west to southwest and will gust up to around 30-40 mph (up to around 45 mph in wind prone areas and up to around 55 mph in the Sierra ridges) going through the rest of the day. As these winds will cause choppy conditions on area lakes, Lake Wind Advisories are in effect today (please see the product for more details). Blowing dust reducing visibility may be possible today within the W NV Basin and Range especially near desert sinks and playas, so please use caution if traveling through these areas. These winds will also bring an elevated to locally critical fire weather concern to portions of the region, so please refer to the Fire Weather section for more details on this.

Models project the upper trough progressing eastward on Tuesday followed by an upper ridge beginning to build over the region on Wednesday through the rest of the week. This signals dry conditions for the remainder of the week as temperatures trend warmer. Above normal temperatures for June are in the forecast starting on Wednesday and continue into the weekend. The W NV and NE CA valleys are forecast to see high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s Thursday through the weekend while Sierra communities are currently seeing highs between the upper 70s and the middle 80s. We'll be keeping an eye on this as the latest NWS HeatRisk product is showing widespread minor to moderate HeatRisk within W NV, but please plan now for these warmer temperatures if you have outdoor plans later this week. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected across the region today and tonight. Increased winds gusting up to around 25-35 kts are to be expected starting in the late morning that may last through at least around 10/06Z which will allow for LLWS and mountain wave turbulence within the region. Reductions in visibility may be possible at KLOL and KNFL due to blowing dust as well. Light shower chances between 15-35% are in the forecast in the afternoon and evening within the region especially portions closer to the OR border, but not anticipating sub-VFR conditions for any of the TAF sites at this time. -078

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon today when west to southwest winds are forecast to increase. Gusts to 35 mph will overlap relative humidities ranging 10-15% across pockets of Pershing, Churchill, Lyon and Mono counties for a couple hours Monday afternoon. HRICH/078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002>004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071-072.