textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions and breezy to gusty winds will bring periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions for the next few days. A longer period of gusty winds possible Friday, breezy Saturday. * Temperatures will cool slightly, but still above average, for the remainder of this week.

* Temperatures climb again by midweek next week, with typical afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION

As a weak shortwave delivers showers along the Oregon border this afternoon, further south along the Sierra Front, gusty winds and low relative humidities settle in for the rest of the week. This setup will bring about elevated fire weather conditions today and Thursday, with stronger wind gusts along with lowering relative humidities arriving for Friday and Saturday inducing critical fire weather concerns.

Westerly winds increase each afternoon into the weekend. This afternoon, gusts may reach 30-35 mph, with the higher gusts over the Basin and Range. At the same time, relative humidity will struggle to reach 10% over the Basin and Range, while the Sierra Front may see 10-15%. Thursday is more of the same, with winds a little more tame around 25-30 mph and similar relative humidity. Friday will be much breezier for a longer duration, with up to 6 hours of gusty winds that could reach speeds up to 40 mph in localized areas. Saturday will feel like a repeat of Friday with wind speeds, although their duration will be shorter. Finally the shortwave activity will trend down as high pressure and subsidence migrates toward the Great Basin.

Looking into next week, we see the dry weather continue, with some blended guidance suggesting shortwave activity may brush by to our north. This may increase winds at times, but no precipitation is expected. By midweek we see a return of summer-like heat, with daily afternoon breezes. HRICH

AVIATION

* Widespread VFR conditions today as the clouds will remain to our north along the Oregon border. Westerly winds will gust near 30 kts for western Nevada valley terminals, with the potential for some turbulence and LLWS. Sierra terminals may see gusts 25-30 kts as well today.

* VFR conditions with gusty winds continue Thursday, with an increase in winds for Friday afternoon to nearly 35 kts for western Nevada valley terminals. Turbulence and LLWS will be concerns for aviators through the weekend. HRICH

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing SW-W winds will lead to elevated-locally critical conditions mainly below 6000 feet each afternoon starting today. Another dry and breezy frontal passage could bring a longer period of enhanced afternoon winds across the eastern Sierra and western NV Friday and Saturday. As these winds increase and fine fuels continue to become receptive to sparks, there may be flare-ups of holdover ignitions from recent lightning.

* Today - Thursday: SW-W gusts of 25-30 mph (similar or just a bit above our typical zephyr breezes), with a few typically windier sites catching gusts up to 35 mph for less than 3 hours overlapping with very low afternoon RH (10-16% today, 6-12% Wed- Thurs). Overnight RH recoveries will become poor for much of western NV from Wednesday night onward, with Max RH about 25-40% in valleys, and even lower for mid slopes/thermal belts.

* Friday and Saturday: Winds still have a potential for increasing a notch (gusts 30-35 mph, isolated gusts up to 40 mph) and occurring for a longer duration (3-6+ hours of critical wind/RH conditions possible), depending on the eventual track of a weak dry shortwave. With similar low RH values and a few days of further drying for vegetation, fire weather concerns would be greater for this period. MJD/HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.