textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler weather continues through Tuesday morning, with chilly overnight temperatures.

* Valley rain showers and snow on the highest peaks are possible through Tuesday morning.

* A gradual warming trend resumes starting Tuesday, with dry conditions and light afternoon breezes returning as well.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP upper air analysis shows an upper trough over the region today, which forecast models project to move slowly eastward while closing off into an upper low over the next few days. This pattern will allow for the cooling trend to continue through Tuesday morning. Expect daytime highs on Monday in the 50s for the lower valleys and in the mid to upper 40s in Sierra communities. Overnight lows tonight look to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those experienced last night. The coldest morning of this week will be early Tuesday with low temperatures forecast between the middle 20s and lower 30s range in W Nevada and in the middle teens to middle 20s in Sierra communities. Please be prepared for these chilly temperatures and remember to protect the 4 P's from the cold: people, pets, plants, and pipes.

As for precipitation chances through tonight, current radar returns shows isolated light showers ongoing this afternoon generally around the Reno area that are moving northeast through Pershing County. The latest runs of the CAMs project these light showers continuing to pop up around the Reno area and follow the same track going into the evening though coverage does spread into portions of NE CA as well. The forecast also shows around a 15-35% chance for precipitation overnight in the Sierra. Snow levels drop down to 6.5-7.5 kft by tomorrow morning, but snowfall amounts in the Sierra for tonight look to be light.

By Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning, precipitation chances are forecast to increase to around 50-70% for areas south of I-80 with the higher end chances in the Sierra. Portions to the north of I-80 look to be less than 15% at this time. Snow levels will rise to around 7-7.5 kft on Monday afternoon, then lower 6- 6.5 kft overnight. As for snowfall totals through this period, they appeared to have trended downward with higher elevations of the Sierra seeing a 50-70% NBM probability of 2+ inches of snow. For now, there is still a 20-40% probability to see up to 4 inches of snow on the top of Mt. Rose and a 40-70% probability for the White Mountains to see the same. The lower valleys will see light rain showers with a less than 10% for a rumble of thunder. There is still some good uncertainty with this system, especially since the increased moisture from the Tropical Storm Rachel remnants has been pulled more northeast and farther away from the region when compared to prior forecast model runs. So please stay tuned for more forecast updates as they become available.

On Tuesday, model guidance starts to show a ridge building over the region through the rest of the week after the system departs farther east. This signals a gradual warming trend with drier weather through the rest of the week, with high temperatures returning to near or above seasonal normals going into the weekend. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight for all area TAF sites, with a 15-35% chance for isolated showers generally in the Sierra and Sierra Front portions of the area through tonight. Most terminals look to have winds gusting up to 20-25 kts through 11/02-03Z. Sierra terminals could see light rain change to light snow tonight into Monday morning, but forecast snowfall amounts continue to look light. Valley rain and mountain snow chances increase to around 50-70% by Monday afternoon going into Monday night, potentially causing sub-VFR conditions at Sierra terminals. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.