textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue each afternoon through Wednesday along the Sierra.

* Drier conditions with warming temperatures by Friday.

* Shower and thunder chances return by Sunday and continue through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Cumulus clouds are bubbling up along the higher terrain already this early afternoon. Showers are most likely expected to materialize (45-65%) along the Sierra today with a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms after 12 PM. Model soundings show MUCAPE values of 100-300 J/kg this afternoon. Additional forcing from a low pressure system off the coast of central California, combined with surface heating, will promote deeper storm profiles with higher storm tops. Storms that develop today will be capable of lightning, small hail or pellets, brief heavy rainfall, temperature drops, and gusty winds.

The aforementioned low will continue to move across California, bringing additional light shower chances (<15%) to the Sierra Wednesday afternoon. Drier conditions will emerge through at least Saturday before another shortwave trough approaches the California coast by Sunday. Until then, expect temperatures to warm up to 10 degrees above normal by Saturday with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for valleys and mid 60s for Sierra communities.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of the forecast period, with brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible for KTRK/KTVL this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and will be capable of mountain obscurations and lower VIS with brief heavy rainfall. Gusty outflows may bring brief wind direction changes for Sierra Front terminals. KTRK can also expect FZFG again late tonight until about sunrise.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.