textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Well above average temperatures will persist through Friday, with daily record highs possible throughout the area. * A potent cold front is expected to produce gusty winds with the potential for enhanced fire weather concerns Fri-Sat.

* Significant cooling is expected behind the front with below averages temperatures returning, along with 10-20% chances for rain and mountain snow showers by Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Strengthening high pressure will result in temperatures 10-15 degrees above average through Friday afternoon, with nearly a 90% chance of record-breaking highs in Reno on Wednesday which has softer records that day. Overall, highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across western Nevada, eastern Lassen County, and lower elevations of Mono County, while eastern Sierra communities will see highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s through Friday. See the Climate section below for details on potential record highs and record warm lows at Reno and South Lake Tahoe.

A significant change arrives this weekend as a closed low pressure system moves south from the Pacific Northwest. A potent cold front associated with this system will increase winds on Friday, with stronger winds expected Saturday with the front. Widespread gusts of 30-40 mph are possible, with a 25-35% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph. These winds, combined with persistent dry conditions could create critical fire weather conditions across western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra.

Temperatures are expected to drop 20-25 degrees from Friday to Sunday, with a 10-20% chance of rain and high-elevation snow showers from Sunday into early next week. Confidence in the systems track remains low, leaving the extent of cooling, precipitation chances, and snow levels uncertain. Those with outdoor recreation plans in the eastern Sierra this weekend or early next week should prepare for much colder weather and the possibility of light snow showers as low as 7,000-8,000 feet. Fuentes

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through at least Friday with typical afternoon breezes below 20 kts.

* A pattern change this weekend may result in an increased potential for LLWS and turbulence as a potent cold front is expected to provide increasing winds along with much cooler weather with rain and mountain snow showers. Fuentes

CLIMATE

For both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO airport and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL airport):

Record high temperatures for October 3 (91F) and 4 (89F) were tied at Reno over the past weekend. So far this month, South Lake Tahoe hasn't reached any record highs, and neither site has reported any record warm lows.

Near record high temperatures and warmest low temperatures remain in the forecast through Friday. Wednesday (10/7) has the highest probability (near 90%) for at least a tied record high for that date.

Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 88F (1942,1980,1991,1996) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014) 10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015) 10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996)

* Reno's latest 90+ degree day for any calendar year. ---------------------------------------------------------------

Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021) 10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969) 10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003)

* Reno's warmest low temperature for any day in October.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.