textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon south and east of Interstate 80. * Warmer and drier weather prevails Wednesday through at least early next week with breezy afternoon winds on Friday.

* Near record heat is becoming increasingly likely late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Skies will continue to clear in a north-south fashion this afternoon as a deformation zone -- draped across Mono-Mineral-Churchill counties -- sinks southward, allowing better surface heating to overspread moisture pools of 40-50F dewpoints in W Nevada valleys. As a result, a swath of greater instability will reside from just south of Tahoe to far NE Nevada where MUCAPE reaches 200-800 J/kg by the midafternoon.

The expectation is for shower and thunderstorm development to be closer to the deformation zone where lift is maximized. Hi-res ensembles corroborate this as lightning probabilities range from 30- 60% in this area. However, deep-layer shear may be too strong for instability/lift to overcome, which would inhibit thunderstorm formation. Thunderstorm potential closer to I-80 is a bit more uncertain as low-level moisture becomes mixed/scoured out over time, reducing instability as the afternoon goes on. Still, there is at least a 10-30% chance of lightning along and north/west of the I-80 corridor, with the more likely outcome (20-40% chance) being a few passing showers this afternoon. Expect strong outflow winds, heavy downpours, and occasional lightning with any thunderstorm.

A warming and drying trend begins after today as high pressure builds into western states. Chances of showers will remain below 5% through the weekend and into early next week. A weak low pressure will quickly pass to our north towards the end of the week, which may result in increased W/NW breezes on Friday. More notably, temperatures will climb each day this week and weekend, culminating in daytime highs around 80F for Sierra communities and 90F in NE CA/W NV valleys Sunday and/or Monday.

-Salas

AVIATION

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be the main concern today, mainly at KMMH, KHTH, KNFL/FER, and KLOL where chances of lightning within 10 miles are greatest (20-40%). The most likely timeframe for thunderstorm impacts (sudden/strong wind shifts, heavy downpours/MVFR conditions, lightning) will be between 21Z and 03Z. Elsewhere, low clouds may result in terrain obscuration. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light breezes prevail.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.