textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered rain showers and a low chance of thunderstorms persist into the evening.

* Warmer and drier weather returns this weekend with breezy afternoon winds on Saturday.

* Increased afternoon breezes may elevate fire concerns early next week, with low chances of showers and storms late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Gloomy skies and scattered rain showers are contributing to a welcomed fall-like feel to today's weather. A swath of showers is providing light rain roughly along I-80 from the Tahoe/Greater Reno- Carson-Minden area to Pershing/Churchill County, as evident on late morning radar observations. This area will be the focus for rainfall today with totals varying from 0.1" to 0.25". A pocket of greater rainfall is favored around the Tahoe Basin south into N Mono County where there is a moderate to high likelihood (50-80% chance) of receiving 0.5" or more of rain.

Thunderstorm activity today remains a bit uncertain as cloudy skies and abundant moisture limit instability from surface heating. Synoptic lift from both the broader E.Pac troughing pattern and impinging shortwave may provide enough instability aloft for lightning embedded within the band of showers along I-80, but chances of this are only 10-20%. However, thunderstorm development will be most favorable where breaks in the clouds allow for better surface heating/destabilization this afternoon. Both satellite obs and latest CAMs suggest this is most likely to occur from Mono County into Lyon, Mineral, and Churchill counties where t-storm chances increase to 30-50% this afternoon. Storms in this area will be capable of: strong outflow winds (45+ mph) and blowing dust near desert sinks and playas, brief heavy rain, and occasional lightning/new fire starts. Faster storm motions will preclude a greater flooding threat today, but given the moisture quality there is at least a 5% chance of flash flooding where storms train -- especially if they do over vulnerable burn scars and/or in steep terrain.

Warmer and drier weather returns Saturday as moisture is scoured out to the east. Shower and isolated storms will be possible in the afternoon from Mono County northeastward to Pershing County (20-40% chance). Breezy winds also return Saturday afternoon, which may elevate fire concerns somewhat but higher humidity and antecedent rain should mitigate wind impacts. Ensembles hint at a more progressive weather pattern next week, featuring a series of upper trough passages. Early indications are that we'll stay on the drier and windier side of these storms, which would lend to periods of greater fire concerns next week (especially between Monday and Wednesday). Of course, we could trend wetter next week depending on the eventual depth/track of these troughs, but confidence on either scenario playing out is rather low at this point.

-Salas

AVIATION

Light rain will continue to periodically lower CIGS/VIS to MVFR conditions at KTRK-KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV into the early evening before showers taper off between 00-03Z. There is also a 10-20% chance of embedded lightning at these terminals this afternoon. At KMMH, higher t-storm probs (20-40%) exist this afternoon, posing a risk of gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain/reduced CIGS/VIS, and lightning. Otherwise, low clouds may lead to mountain obscuration at Sierra and Sierra Front terminals.

Drier conditions are in store this weekend with low shower and thunderstorm chances at KMMH each afternoon.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.