textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures cool off to near or slightly below early June seasonal averages today through mid-week.

* Gusty winds and shower chances return Monday, then dry and warm for late-week.

DISCUSSION

Clear skies and light winds this morning have combined to drop low temps about 10 degrees from yesterday morning. Western NV valleys will dip just below 50 degrees this morning and Sierra valleys will get down to near freezing. Another trough over the Pacific NW extending down through the Western US is expected to pass through Monday. Once that trough exits the Western US, a ridge slowly builds in, leaving our area on the edge of the high pressure through next weekend.

Temperatures: In recent models runs, temperatures have trended warmer this week, with Tuesday being the coolest day of the week. Highs bottom out in the upper 70s in lower valleys and mid 60s in Sierra valleys. When the high pressure moves closer throughout the week, our temps warm up to the low-mid 90s in lower valleys by Friday. Morning lows also warm up each day, and we could see lows of 60 or just shy of 60 later this week. Higher elevations will be a tad cooler in the mornings - hanging around the mid-40s.

Winds & Precipitation: Today will be dry and a little breezy in the afternoon with westerly gusts up to 25 mph. Precip chances and winds increase Monday as the trough brushes by. PoPs have trended lower in the latest guidance to around 20% along the Sierra crest from Tahoe northward, and 20-50% in western NV Monday afternoon. There is a slight uptick in the PWATs with this system (0.5-0.6"), although QPF totals are less than 0.10". In addition, 700mb winds increase out of the west to 30-40kt Monday, which could mix down along the Sierra Front after 5 PM. Widespread gusts of 35-40 mph with wind prone locations along US-395 topping out around 55 mph. We dry out Tuesday through the rest of the week, and winds remain breezy but not too concerning. Winds do shift out of the north/northeast mid-week, but the gradients don't appear to be too strong to cause concern.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue today. Breezy westerly winds this afternoon with gusts 15-20kt for all terminals. FL100 winds increase again on Monday to 30-40kt out of the west. Expect an uptick in wind speeds to 15-20kt gusting 25-30kt Monday afternoon and evening. There's likely going to be another round of mountain wave turbulence and LLWS on Monday as well.

Precip chances start showing up Monday too, but they will likely be confined to the Sierra crest from Lake tahoe northward. There is a low chance (20-30%) the Sierra Front and western NV will see light rain Monday afternoon, but confidence is low.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.