textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall tonight into Thursday morning.

* Widespread hard freezes Friday morning.

* Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with active weather possible next week.

DISCUSSION

* A cold front passage is still on track for later this evening into Thursday morning. Lastest guidance has not changed the timing or magnitude of the winds from the prior forecast. Pre- frontal west winds this afternoon will gust between 35-45 mph across western NV and northeast CA. However, there is a likely (50-80%) chance for stronger wind gusts exceeding 55 mph in northern Washoe County, Pershing County, and the Surprise Valley this afternoon. With the passage of the front tonight, there will be a short 2-4 hour duration of strong winds along the Sierra Front, with gusts between 35-45 mph. For Thursday, the stronger winds shift south of I-80 toward Mineral and Mono counties, with northwest winds between 35-45 mph.

* This is not a very wet system; high-resolution guidance shows a quick shot of light snow and rain with the frontal passage tonight into Thursday morning. Amounts are meager, with a 15-40% chance for at least 0.1" inches of snow. Timing is still on track from prior forecast. Showers will arrive between 5-8 PM tonight in Lassen County and northern Washoe County. Snow showers are then possible between 10 PM-7 AM for western NV and the Tahoe Basin. Finally, snow showers will make their way into Mineral County by around 7-9 AM Thursday. * With the passage of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will struggle into the low 40s in the Sierra communties and near 50 degrees in western NV. With clearing skies, Friday morning low temperatures will likely (>90%) fall well into the 20s for much of northeast CA and western NV. The warmer urban locations, such as Reno, will be slightly warmer Friday morning.

* We will clear out and warm up on Friday and Saturday. But, we will keep an active pattern into next week. Ensembles are in some agreement in showing a larger trough pattern over the western US from Sunday through the end of the 7-day forecast period. There are differences in timing and strenght between the ensembles, but overall it remains active weather-wise. -McKellar

AVIATION

* A cold front will pass through tonight, creating some pre- frontal wind gusts in the afternoon likely up to 35kt. A wind shift from west to north will likely happen between 08-12Z Thursday morning for terminals around the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front.

* Ridgetop wind gusts from the west to southwest around 45-55 kts through the afternoon, increasing to 55-65 kts tonight. This will result in areas of turbulence and periods of LLWS in the Sierra and western NV terminals after 03Z.

* There will be a 20-30% chance for light snow showers late tonight through Thursday morning between 05-14Z. Any accumulations will be minimal, with just a 10-30% chance for up to 0.1" of snow. -McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ005.

Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning NVZ001- 003>005.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ070.

Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning CAZ070- 071.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072.