textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through late week, with daily record highs possible throughout the area.

* A cooling trend with increased winds arrives this weekend, but confidence is lower for precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will be firmly in control through Friday, with temperatures remaining 10-15 degrees above average. We are looking at mostly mid 80s to near 90 degrees in western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower elevations of Mono County. For the eastern Sierra, temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s for Sierra communities with mid 50s to mid 60s in higher elevations. For a list of record high maximum and minimum temperatures for the next few days at our area climate sites (Reno & South Lake Tahoe), see the Climate section below.

Our warm weather pattern will come to an end this weekend as a broad area of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. While all ensembles are showing this pattern change by the weekend, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the exact strength, timing, and location of this weekend system.

Weather-wise, this low pressure system will first lead to an increase in winds on Saturday into Sunday. Given the recent period of dry weather and the low humidities expected on Saturday, we'll possibly see elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon. Other hazards include choppy waters on area lakes and bumpy air travel.

The second thing this low pressure will do is drastically lower temperatures throughout the region. Saturday temperatures drop around 10 degrees, returning back to near average. Temperatures drop an additional 10 degrees on Sunday, and another 5 degrees on Monday. Temperatures by Monday and Tuesday will be over 10 degrees below average, returning back into the 60s in western NV and 50s for the eastern Sierra communities. Lastly, blended guidance shows a broad area of 10-20% chances for precipitation with this low on Sunday into Monday. But confidence in precipitation remains very low at this time. -McKellar

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through at least Friday.

* Terminals will continue to have light winds (gusts below 20 kt). -McKellar

CLIMATE

For both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO airport and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL airport):

Record high temperatures for October 3 (91F) and 4 (89F) were tied at Reno over the past weekend. So far this month, South Lake Tahoe has reached any record highs, and neither site has reported any record warm lows.

Near record high temperatures and warmest low temperatures remain in the forecast through Friday. Wednesday (10/7) has the highest probability (near 90%) for at least a tied record high for that date.

Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1990,1991) 10/6 88F (1942,1980,1991,1996) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014) 10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015) 10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996)

* Reno's latest 90+ degree day for any calendar year. ---------------------------------------------------------------

Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021) 10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969) 10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003)

* Reno's warmest low temperature for any day in October.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.