textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday, with highs around 10 degrees above normal and isolated Moderate HeatRisk in lower valleys.

* Breezy winds may bring brief elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday, with stronger gusts producing increased potential for elevated to locally critical conditions toward the weekend.

* Some cooling returns this weekend, with temperatures near early June averages Sunday into early next week. Shower chances may also return next week.

DISCUSSION

Warm and Dry Through Friday:

* Weak mid-level ridging over CA/NV will maintain above-average temperatures through Friday. Highs generally reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across western NV valleys, with upper 70s to lower 80s for Sierra communities. Friday is trending a bit warmer, with highs pushing to near 95 degrees in west central NV, increasing the extent of Moderate HeatRisk.

Breezy Today & Friday, Then Brief Lull Thursday:

* A weak shortwave passing across the Pacific NW will tighten the surface pressure gradient and increase southwest to west winds this afternoon. The best signal for gusts of 25-35 mph remains across much of western NV, and eastern Lassen County. Winds ease back on Thursday before increasing again Friday ahead of the next Pacific storm.

Stronger Weekend Storm and Wind Potential:

* A deeper northeast Pacific storm moves onshore across the Pacific NW this weekend, with a trough axis extending southward into northern CA-NV. While the southern extent of this storm varies among the ensemble guidance scenarios, the best potential for stronger wind gusts of 35-40 mph continues to favor Saturday. For wind prone areas near US-395/I-580 in far western NV and the eastern Sierra, there's a 40-70% chance for peak gusts above 40 mph. With dry conditions prevailing through this weekend, fire weather concerns will likely increase--see the Fire Weather section below. Temperatures will cool off from this week's warmth, with highs falling back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Sunday in lower elevations and near 70 for Sierra communities--near early June averages.

Next Week Outlook--Shower Chances May Return:

* Near-average temperatures are more likely to continue into early next week, although increased spread among the longer range guidance leads to lower forecast confidence. Another Pacific storm with a cold front could drop across CA/NV by late next Monday and bring gusty winds with chances for showers especially north of I-80. More aggressive scenarios keep this storm around through the middle of next week, which would result in cooler than average temperatures and continued shower chances. However, a majority of the scenarios show a quicker exit of this storm, so we will keep the precip chances on the lower end--generally 10% or less for western NV and 10-20% near the Sierra and northeast CA from late Monday through midweek.

MJD

AVIATION

* VFR conditions prevail through at least Friday for all main terminals, with no significant CIG/VIS restrictions expected.

* SW-W winds increase this afternoon-early evening with gusts 25-30 kt at times at the main terminals, except slightly less at KTVL. With FL100 wind gusts near 35 kt from the similar direction, conditions become favorable for periods of mountain wave turbulence and occasional LLWS near and east of the Sierra.

* After a decrease in winds Thursday, the next storm brings breezy conditions similar to today by Friday afternoon, then stronger winds with increased impacts to aviation likely arrive for Saturday.

MJD

FIRE WEATHER

* Last week's cool and wet conditions temporarily eased fire weather concerns. However, the recent and upcoming stretch of warm and dry days will lead to increased drying of vegetation, leading to a mixture of conditions including pockets of drier grasses/brush which may become more receptive to carrying fire.

* This afternoon brings a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions as southwest to west gusts of 25-35 mph overlap with minimum RH in the single digits to teens across much of western NV south of Gerlach. A similar period of dry and breezy conditions is forecast to return to much of western NV Friday afternoon.

* Saturday continues to show the greatest potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, with a 70% or greater chance for peak gusts greater than 35 mph across much of western NV, along with eastern portions of Lassen and Mono Counties. In these areas, minimum RH is expected to range from 8-15% as these winds pick up in the afternoon.

MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.