textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably warm and dry conditions prevail through Saturday.

* Afternoon breezes will be slightly higher today and Friday, leading to elevated fire weather concerns, and minor impacts to aviation and recreation.

* Monsoonal moisture increases later this weekend and next week, renewing chances for showers and thunderstorms, with potential for localized heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

The battleground between drier SW flow over the Sierra and deeper moisture from the southwest US is tilting to the drier scenario for eastern CA-western NV through at least Saturday. The only exception may be a couple of passing showers (5-10% chance) across the far eastern parts of the Basin & Range (Mineral, Churchill, Pershing counties) later this afternoon and evening. Winds will edge upward with gusts 25-30 mph and a few gusts to 35 mph this afternoon and again Friday afternoon mainly for far northeast CA- northwest NV southward to the Reno-Carson vicinity. As minimum afternoon humidity trends lower to the 8-12% range, especially north of I-80 to the Oregon border, isolated areas of elevated fire weather concerns are expected both days. By Saturday, the winds ease back to a more typical zephyr breeze with gusts up to 25 mph while humidity won't be quite as low. Seasonal mid-July temperatures prevail through Saturday with highs in the mid-upper 90s for lower elevations and lower-mid 80s for Sierra communities.

For Sunday, a return of mid-upper level moisture is projected to return across much of the region, especially west of US-95. Meanwhile, a later arrival of cloud cover from US-95 eastward could allow for a bit more warming for this part of west central NV, with about a 40-50% chance for highs reaching 100 degrees. Latest guidance is trending less favorable for much precipitation arriving by Sunday afternoon, other than a few light showers for northeast CA-northwest NV. Additional showers could develop Sunday evening-night across the Sierra, northeast CA and far western NV, although with limited forcing rainfall amounts through this time frame are looking sparse.

Next week from Monday through at least Wednesday, a shift to more southerly flow aloft will direct a deeper push of monsoon-type moisture into the region. The initial round of showers/t-storms by Monday afternoon are currently favoring the eastern Sierra and western NV south of US-50 (20-35% chance), with more isolated shower activity (10-20% chance) spreading north of US-50 through Monday night. Current medium range guidance appears to favor a better chance of showers/t-storms Tuesday-Wednesday when disturbances rotating around the western periphery of the high pressure ridge over the Rockies/central US could increase upper level forcing over our region. However, confidence is lower with the extent and coverage of this precip due to varied timing and placement of these key weather features. Temperatures for next week will remain seasonably warm, with highs generally in the 90s for lower elevations and lower 80s near the Sierra, although highs could be a few degrees lower in some areas early next week if a cloudy/showery setup persists through the daytime hours. Nights look to be a few degrees warmer early next week (lows in the 60s-near 70 for lower elevations/lower-mid 50s near the Sierra) from this same increase in moisture/cloud cover. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through this weekend with mainly clear skies except for patchy mid-level clouds at times into Saturday, and a more widespread swath of mid-high level clouds arriving by Sunday. Afternoon SW-W wind gusts near 25 mph at most main terminals today and Friday (except a little lighter at KTVL), ramping up between 20-22Z and winding down between 03-05Z. Wind gusts decrease a bit across the main terminals for Saturday afternoon. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.