textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer and drier weather prevails through the early weekend with low chances (5-10%) of afternoon showers near the Sierra crest today through Friday.

* Potential for rain and mountain snow showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds return late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Warming and drying trend kicks off today as low pressure exits the region and brief shortwave ridging prevails. Dry, north to northwest flow will scour out most of the mid to upper level moisture with relatively clear skies the next couple of days. Only exceptions will be (1) afternoon cumulus buildups with a ~10% chance of a shower or two along the Sierra crest and (2) the fog potential in the Truckee vicinity. Forecast soundings depict plenty of dry air in the mid to upper levels ushered in by the north-northwest flow, but enough surface level moisture to allow for areas of fog to form late each night into the early morning. We're all familiar with the dense fog culprits in Truckee and along Interstate 80 near Boca and Donner Lake, so take it slow during those morning commutes. Aside from those concerns, bust out the sunscreen and iced beverages to properly enjoy the warmer days with highs in the upper 60s and upper 70s by Saturday. Some warmer lower valleys may reach toward 80 degrees by Saturday afternoon.

There is also an honorable mention for a weak, dry frontal feature that is projected to pass through eastern NV on Thursday which may kick off some stronger breezes for areas east of Highway 95 and south of Interstate 80. Some residual northeast-east enhanced flow may result in stronger gusts for Mineral and Mono county ridgelines through early Friday morning.

After the relatively quiet weather, we are looking at a potpourri of weather starting on Saturday and taking residence through early next week. There are still some question marks on the finer details, but after some wind increases and isolated showers on Saturday, you can plan on the return of unsettled weather Sunday into Tuesday. We're talking cooler conditions, potential for rain and mountain snow showers, thunderstorms and some winds. While there are still some discrepancies in the track and timing of the system, for now, the precipitation potential peaks Monday into Tuesday. Blended guidance does show snow levels dropping for a brief period of time Monday into Tuesday with potential for snow impacts to the Sierra passes. Keep an eye on the future forecast updates because there could be more extended impacts to Sierra travel if the system hangs on later in the week.

Beyond this system, high pressure will nudge the cold system eastward with another warmer/drier period in store for next Wednesday into late next week. We're well into the ups/downs of true Spring here in Northern NV and CA.

-Edan

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light breezes prevail today. Plan on low to mid level cumulus buildups this afternoon, especially along the Sierra crest. There is a 10% chance of showers at KMMH-KTRK-KTVL through this evening.

There is a 15-25% chance of another round of FZFG and IFR/LIFR conditions at KTRK between 10Z and 16Z Thursday morning. Similar progression to the FZFG that we saw this morning, it should mix out with increasing CIGS and VIS.

-Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.