textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A travel window opens through Sunday, as clearing skies and dry conditions return.

* A weaker storm will likely bring snow to Sierra passes and rain in the valleys late Sunday night into Monday.

* A stronger and colder storm Wednesday into Thursday could bring heavy Sierra snow and snow down to western Nevada valley floors.

DISCUSSION

Friday night's storm brought a burst of snow to the Sierra with totals of 7-14" above 7000 ft and 2-5" below 7000 ft to lake level around Tahoe, and for higher. Rainfall ranged from 0.20-0.50" near and west of US-395 for eastern CA and the main urban areas of western NV, with locally higher amounts up to 1" for foothills west of Reno-Carson-Minden, the Tahoe basin and western Mono County. Along the Sierra crest, liquid totals were generally 1-1.5".

The remainder of today through Sunday afternoon brings a good travel window for crossing the Sierra passes, as the next storm is trending a bit slower. While rain may begin across northeast CA Sunday afternoon, the next round of snow for main passes such as I-80 and US-50 is now favoring Sunday night-Monday.

Sunday Night-Monday Storm:

* While less intense than Friday's storm, a band of snow is poised to set up as soon as late Sunday evening across the Tahoe region, with best potential during the early-mid morning hours Monday. Expect winter travel conditions mainly near and above 7000 feet for the Monday AM commute with snowfall rates near 1"/hour, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. This band will progress slowly southward along the Sierra through Monday afternoon and lose some of its punch, with lesser totals of 2-5" near the crest in Mono County. Colder air and residual snow showers may keep patchy slick conditions going for the Monday PM commute near the Sierra.

* For lower elevations, mainly light rain (0.10" or less, locally up to 0.25") is expected across far western NV Monday AM, pushing eastward to the US-95 corridor Monday PM. As shower activity winds down by late Monday, colder air may yield a few snowflakes down to near 5500 feet, but no accumulation is expected.

Tuesday - Break Between Storms:

* Cold morning start with teens in the Sierra and mid 20s in western NV, with highs only in the 40s-near 50 for lower elevations and near 40 for Sierra communities. Dry conditions will allow for another travel window over the Sierra Tuesday through most of Tuesday night before a stronger storm arrives.

Wednesday-Thursday Storm:

* MORE SNOW! This storm is poised to bring another round of Sierra snow and valley rain starting Wednesday which may continue through much of Thursday, with potential to exceed the combined totals of the first two storms from yesterday and Monday. Early projections call for 1-2 feet near the Sierra crest and 6+" down to lake level around Tahoe. Gusty winds are expected to spread into lower elevations Wednesday, with stronger Sierra ridge gusts of 70+ mph. Snow levels could drop to 5000 feet or lower by early Thursday through the storm's end Thursday night, which may impact commutes for Reno-Carson City-Minden with the first snowfall of the season. The duration of this storm is still in flux as a closed low following Wednesday's initial moisture band shows some spread in its eventual track, which would enhance or limit the overall Sierra totals, and determine whether snow reaches the lower elevations.

Friday-Next Week - Mainly Dry and Chilly, then More Storms toward Thanksgiving?:

* Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below average Friday, with highs only in the upper 30s near the Sierra to mid 40s in lower elevations, followed by a slow upward temperature trend through next weekend. Expect cold nights for late week-next weekend, even dipping to the teens for lower elevations especially if any snow cover is present. Showers may linger into Friday as the Wed-Thurs storm departs, but overall drier conditions are favored into next weekend. However, longer range guidance indicates a potential for additional storm activity near the peak Thanksgiving holiday travel period, so keep posted to our forecast updates and consider alternate plans to avoid the longest delays.

MJD

AVIATION

* KRNO...VFR thru Sunday. Increasing SW ridge winds gusts 40-45 kt Sunday AM with increased turbulence/mountain wave activity through the day. SFC winds light, becoming south with gusts near 15 kt after 21Z.

* Regional Outlook thru Sunday...VFR except patchy FZFG with LIFR conditions at KTRK Sun AM mainly 13-17Z. Increasing SW ridge winds with gusts 40-45 kt Sunday AM increased turbulence and mountain wave activity through the day and periods of LLWS at KTVL/KTRK. SFC winds light, becoming south with gusts 15-20 kt after 19Z for KTRK/KTVL and after 21Z for KCXP/KMEV. * 24-72 Hour Outlook...The next storm brings periods of rain/snow and IFR conditions Monday AM (most likely 08-16Z) for KTRK/KTVL, with a shorter period of snow reaching KMMH by Monday PM (most likely 22-03Z). Western NV sites mostly VFR except short periods of MVFR due to rain showers Monday. Winds mainly light, except for stronger ridge wind gusts of 45-55 kt Sunday night with continued turbulence and periods of LLWS, then decreasing Monday. For Tuesday, VFR for all sites except potential for AM FZFG at KTRK (60+% chance).

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM PST Monday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM PST Monday CAZ072.