textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds overlap with low humidities across northern Washoe County, bringing elevated to critical fire weather concerns this afternoon. * Temperatures peak today, bringing areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk across western Nevada.

* A monsoon moisture surge starting Sunday will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through next week.

DISCUSSION

If you're not a fan of the heat out there today, well look no further. We're in store for a bit of a cooldown as high pressure relaxes eastward and cooler/moist air inundates the Eastern Sierra and western Nevada. Although, this new air mass comes with the price of ushering in higher dewpoints (humidity) that may have it feeling a bit more sticky even though the temperatures won't be quite as hot.

Primary concern over the next several days will be the potential for thunderstorms and showers as moist, subtropical air surges into the area. The highest probabilities (30-55% chances) for showers and thunderstorms will be Monday and Tuesday, but we will see some showers and storms at the leading edge of the moisture surge on Sunday. Initial showers will likely be elevated, and the precipitation may not even reach the surface (aka virga). After 12pm Sunday, as deeper moisture rushes in on southerly flow, the potential for showers and thunderstorms (15-25% chances) will climb, especially along far western Nevada, the Sierra, and into NE CA. Monday and Tuesday there will be more widespread coverage as moisture will be aplenty across the region along with sufficient instability. Plan on typical thunderstorm risks, including heavy rain, lightning, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

The weather outlook becomes a little more murky come Wednesday as drier, southwest flow battles for elbow room with the moist, southerly flow. There will be a stark difference in air mass properties across the region. Areas south of US50 may have sufficient moist air that will still promote shower/thunderstorm activity whereas north of US50 dry, stable air will severely limit any storm development. This line of storms/no storms will be difficult to pin down until we're a bit closer to Wednesday.

While you should always be aware of the weather, it will be imperative this week as storms may develop rapidly, and sometimes earlier in the day than usual. Have a way to receive weather alerts, monitor the radar, or keep your eyes on the skies. Early in the day cumulus build-ups (puffy, cotton-ball clouds) are a good indicator of the potential for storms developing, so have an exit strategy or backup plan if you're working or playing outdoors.

-Edan

AVIATION

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions today. Some high level SCT-BKN cloud cover migrates in ahead of the moisture surge for tomorrow. Typical westerly winds this afternoon with gusts up to 15-25kt for all terminals.

Showers and thunderstorm chances return to the Sierra by 22Z Sunday with potential for showers at KMMH between Sun 22z-Mon 3z and at KTVL between Mon 0-3z. Some lighter showers may persist overnight Sunday into Monday at KMMH. More widespread potential for thunderstorms and showers arrives Monday and Tuesday with a monsoon moisture surge.

-Edan

FIRE WEATHER

* Breezy winds are already gusting 25+mph across northern Washoe County, Surprise Valley, and northern Lassen County early this afternoon. The winds will coincide with 7-12% RH for roughly 1-5 hours through the evening resulting in elevated critical fire conditions.

* A monsoon moisture surge forecast for Sunday into Tuesday will usher shower and thunderstorm chances back into the Eastern Sierra and western Nevada, along with much of the Southwest US. First round of storms Sunday will likely be on the dry side with the potential for starts outside of wetter rain cores, but storms will quickly become quite wet Monday into Tuesday with a higher heavy rain risk.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Heat Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-004.

CA...None.