textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds overlap with low humidity for today, bringing critical fire weather and recreation concerns. * Increasing temperatures into the weekend will bring areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk for Saturday.

* A monsoonal pattern increases potential for showers and thunderstorms throughout next week and next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Our warm-hot temperatures continue this afternoon across the CWA with temperatures expected to top out in the mid-90s across lower valleys and low-80s in the Sierra. Fallon (KNFL) has a 60% chance to reach 100 degrees today, which would be their first 100 degree day this year. Similarly, Lovelock has an 80% chance to reach 100 degrees today, which would be KLOL's second 100 degree day this year. Aloft, a trough swinging by to our northwest will help increase surface winds across western NV and northeast CA. Because of the heat and low RHs this afternoon, these gusty winds of 30-35 mph will yield 3-7 hours of critical fire weather conditions. More information on our Red Flag Warning down in the Fire Weather Section down below.

The real "hot" temperatures don't come until tomorrow when the high pressure aloft shifts to our east and advects some warmer air into western Nevada. Because of these hot and slightly above average temperatures, we have issued a Heat Advisory for the Nevada Basin and Range Lyon and Mineral county valid for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Our typical zephyr breeze picks back up Saturday and we continue to stay dry thanks to the high pressure. Sunday will feature more of the same; more hot and dry conditions across northeast CA and western NV.

Due to the position of the high pressure to our east, it's going to tap into some subtropical moisture and draw it up from the south starting Sunday night. This will be the start of a monsoonal pattern we usually see at least once every summer that brings our CWA around a week or so of showers and thunderstorms. Similar to previous guidance, PWAT values across western NV range from 0.7-0.9" the first half of next week, signifying the potential for heavy rain with any thunderstorms. With this upcoming multi-day event, potential lightning starts from strikes outside of rain cores, flash flooding, and strong gusty outflow winds will all be possible. As of the current time, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the models with the location and duration of these showers and thunderstorms next week. From what we're seeing, it looks like the highest probabilities remain south of I-80 in the Sierra and western NV. Even for this Sunday, the east-west positioning of the storms still varies from over the Sierra crest to western Nevada, so still lots to resolve as we get closer in time.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue today with west/southwest gusts 20-30kt. FL100 winds increase to 30-35kt over the Sierra late tonight as surface winds weaken, giving way to some pockets of LLWS and light turbulence over the Sierra. Lighter westerly winds and dry conditions are expected Saturday afternoon.

-Justin

FIRE WEATHER

* Continued dry afternoons prevail into this weekend, with minimum RH values dipping to the single digits for much of western NV (near 5% at times along & east of US-95) and eastern Lassen County, with 10-15% for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and near the OR border. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor for much of western NV and some midslope/thermal belt regions, with maximum RH values only around 20-30%.

* SW-W flow increases over the Sierra this afternoon with 700 mb winds increasing to 25-30 kt. This would increase the potential for afternoon wind gusts pushing into the 30-35 mph range, producing elevated to locally critical conditions across parts of eastern Lassen/northern Washoe counties southward into the western NV Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for today from 2 PM to 9 PM.

* The duration of the gusty winds/low RH meeting critical levels for Saturday still looks very isolated, but a few sites could see these conditions occur for more than 3 hours. HRICH/Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-458.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.