textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Chances of rain and high elevation snow increase across the Sierra and far NW Nevada Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. * Gusty winds may impact recreation and travel on Wednesday with elevated fire concerns in southern Mono County.

* Periods of gusty winds, rain and mountain snow possible late this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Our much awaited pattern change is expected to unfold this week as dampening high pressure allows the storm track to dip southward towards the region. We'll still be on the southern periphery of the storm track so a bulk of the rain and snow will stay north and west of the region, but a couple trough passages will bring periods of light rain and mountain snow this week.

The first opportunity for rain and snow will be Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as transient low pressure increases shower chances to 60-90% from the Tahoe Basin towards the Oregon border. Showers likely spill into far NW Nevada Wednesday morning, so don't be surprised to see light rain across the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area during the AM commute. Snow levels will remain above 9-10k feet, which would confine snowfall (dusting to 4") to highest Sierra peaks.

Winds also begin to intensify along Sierra ridges Tuesday night with gusts reaching/exceeding 100 mph by Wednesday morning. Enhanced winds aloft are transported to the surface Wednesday afternoon, resulting in SW/W gusts of 35-45 mph across lower valleys with wind prone locales seeing gusts upwards of 60 mph. Be prepared for choppy lakes, aviation impacts, and crosswind driving hazards along north- to-south oriented roadways such as I-580, US-395, and US-95. Low-end fire weather concerns will also exist across lower elevations of southern Mono County where RH reductions to near 30% are expected.

A second trough passage is slated for Friday, bringing renewed wind impacts and nearly identical shower chances as its predecessor. The weather pattern becomes zonal over the weekend, which will keep moisture directed into the region and support periods of rain and snow through the weekend. Ensembles advertise unsettled weather to continue into next week with more organized storms impacting the region, which increases the likelihood of holiday travel disruptions leading up to Christmas.

-Salas

AVIATION

FG/FZFG and reduced VIS/CIGS continue to be the main concern for Tahoe terminals, especially at KTVL where fog has proven to be more persistent. Fog may return to the KTRK/KTVL tonight into Tuesday morning, otherwise VFR conditions persist through Tuesday morning.

Increasing winds and shower chances are expected Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PST Wednesday NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PST Wednesday CAZ072.