textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* A colder storm continues today, bringing cool temperatures with more rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds.
* Wrap-around rain and mountain snow is forecast to continue into Tuesday with lower confidence currently seen for higher impacts in the region.
* Following a precipitation break on Wednesday, rain and mountain snow chances look to return by early Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Looking at the latest RAP upper air analysis, an upper low is currently just off the coast of northern CA causing the CWA to have a generally southerly flow aloft. Going through the rest of the day, forecast guidance shows the Pacific low traveling south along the CA coast. With this setup aloft, the ongoing precipitation currently seen in CA looks to spread into the Tahoe region and the Eastern Sierra this morning. As the latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) highlights potential minor to moderate impacts possible at higher elevations, the Winter Weather Advisories for these areas remain in effect for today (and going into tomorrow for the Eastern Sierra). For more details on these advisories, the WSSI, and latest snowfall totals: please visit weather.gov/rev/winter. Please use caution if traveling through these areas. NE CA sees good chances (60-80%) for light snow today as well, but not anticipating any snow accumulation that would merit an advisory. Snow levels look to start around 6.5kft this morning in the Sierra before dropping to around 5.5-6 kft by the late afternoon. The precipitation chances expect to cross the CA/NV state border by this afternoon so that the Reno-Carson City-Virginia City-Minden area starts to see their share. However, the forecast calls for mostly rain with the some potential of snow mixing in overnight when snow levels drop. Not anticipating any major impacts at this time, but slick roads are possible. Daytime highs for today look to be similar to those seen on Sunday being in the middle 40s to middle 50s in western NV while Sierra communities see highs in the 30s and 40s. Cooler overnight low temperatures in the 20s and 30s can be expected once again as well.
On Tuesday, confidence in seeing a Tonopah low setup looks to have lowered a bit (but not completely disappeared) in recent model ensemble runs. The favored track now seems to have the low cut across SoCal and make its way near Las Vegas or south of it. As result: it looks like the greater precipitation impacts may stay south of our area. The exception to this rule may be in Mono County as the advisory continues through Tuesday morning. Precipitation continues into the morning hours for areas south of I-80 then transition to south of US-50 by Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels continue to be around 5.5-6 kft in the morning, but gradually rise as the day progresses. High temperatures are forecast to a few degrees warmer than those on Monday with overnight low temperatures being a few degrees cooler since cloud cover expects to decrease going through the day. The first 32F low temperature of the season could be recorded at the Reno-Tahoe International Airport as the latest NBM probabilities show a 60-70% chance.
On Wednesday, forecast guidance shows a ridge moving over the Reno CWA allowing for some drier conditions as the aforementioned low moves farther east. However, this respite does not last too long as another Pacific low is seen in extended guidance by late Wednesday and Thursday. Will be monitoring this potential system going forward as well as it could potentially bring another round of Sierra snow later in the week. -078
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday CAZ073.
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