textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Warmer than normal weather prevails through the weekend with breezy north winds Thursday.
* Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases Thursday into the holiday weekend.
* A Pacific storm may result in a period of cooler, more unsettled weather early next week.
DISCUSSION
A warm and dry pattern remains in place today with temperatures warming to near 70F and 80F this afternoon. Further warming is expected through the weekend when daytime highs reach the upper 70s and 80s for Sierra communities and NE/W NV valleys, respectively. Increased north breezes are also possible Thursday in the wake of a dry frontal passage, but impacts should be minimal.
Shower and thunderstorm potential increases Thursday into the weekend as Pacific moisture overspreads warming surface temperatures each afternoon. Weak instability and subsident flow should limit spatial coverage during this sequence, favoring the higher Sierra/Sierra Front terrain and southeast-adjacent areas for showers and thunderstorms. Friday appears to be the most favorable day for thunderstorms (10-20% odds) as a weak shortwave trough passes overhead. Dry SW flow displaces Pacific moisture to the northeast, shifting best shower/t-storm potential to the OR border, the W NV Basin and Range, and Mono County for the holiday weekend. Be sure to make your holiday plans accordingly, and ensure you have ways of receiving weather alerts if recreating outdoors.
Ensembles continue to hint at a stronger Pacific storm impacting the region early next week, which may result in cooler, more unsettled weather. However, confidence is low on the track and timing of this storm, so details are TBD for now.
-Salas
AVIATION
Widespread VFR conditions and light breezes prevail today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday and Friday, with best chances (10-20%) at KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. Otherwise, expect increasing cumulus in the afternoons, which may result in mountain obscurations.
-Salas
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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