textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Late spring to early summer warmth will prevail into next week, with highs climbing well above mid-March normals.

* Longer range outlooks strongly favor dry and warm conditions going through at least the third week of March.

DISCUSSION

* There are no major changes to the latest forecast thinking. An unseasonably strong high pressure ridge will begin to dominate the western US starting Wednesday through much to all of next week. With high pressure aloft, temperatures will soar to late- spring readings from Thursday into Sunday. High temperatures for most of western NV, eastern Lassen County, and the lower elevations in Mono County will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, while mid 60s will be common for eastern Sierra communities. These temperatures will likely (60-80% chance) approach daily records in western NV on Friday and Sunday.

* We will continue to heat up toward early-summer temperatures by Monday through much of next week. Current blended guidance has temperatures soaring into the low to upper 80s across western NV, eastern Lassen County, and the lower elevations in Mono County. Reno International Airport has likely (90%+) chances for daily temperature records Monday through at least Thursday, with even a likely (80%) chances for breaking the monthly record of 83 degrees set in 1966. Even the high temperatures for our eastern Sierra communities will reach well into the 70s. * As for any precipitation in the forecast? If you are looking for precipitation, you are searching in the wrong part of the country.

-McKellar

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period, though an increasing westerly pressure gradient will bring turbulence and low-level wind hazards to all terminals through 04Z Wednesday.

Turbulence & LLWS

* Mountain Wave Activity: Moderate turbulence is expected from SFC-FL180 due to a passing shortwave trough. Stacked ACSL over the Sierra crest and an active G-AIRMET (19Z Tue) confirm these conditions. Recent PIREPs near KRNO note light to moderate chop near FL080-100.

* Low-Level Wind Shear: Expect LLWS (260-280/20kt) within the lowest 2000 ft AGL at all terminals through this evening. PIREPs confirm the presence of LLWS at KRNO, with several reports of +/- 10-15kt on approach to runway 35L early this afternoon.

Surface Winds

* KRNO/KCXP/KMEV: West gusts 25-30kt through 04Z. Crosswind components of 15-20kt (gusts to 30kt) for KRNO parallel runways (17/35s).

* KTRK/KTVL/KMMH: West gusts 20-25kt through early evening.

Extended Outlook:

* High pressure builds Wednesday through at least mid-next week, maintaining VFR. A typical afternoon Zephyr pattern returns with daily west breezes (15-20kt) for Sierra front terminals. Winds shift NW by Saturday. A significant warming trend starts this weekend; prepare for rising density altitudes as western NV temperatures climb into the low-to-mid-80s by early next week.

-Johnston

HYDROLOGY

* Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue the ongoing early snowmelt leading to diurnal increases in streamflows. Melt will accelerate next week with record high temperatures expected. While area rivers and streams will be running fast and cold, flows will remain well below flood impact levels. This level of snow melt will greatly reduce late-spring to early summer water supply conditions.

-Bardsley

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.