textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures trend downward to near or below early June seasonal averages today into mid-week.

* Gusty winds and shower chances return Monday into early Tuesday, then dry and warm for late-week.

DISCUSSION

The atmosphere is serving a break today from all the recent gusty winds ahead of the next system that is inbound for Monday. Temperatures across the region will nudge slightly lower than yesterday, with upper 70s to low 80s across western Nevada and some chilly 50s for some Sierra communities today. Winds pick up this afternoon, but only to the level of our typical summertime afternoon gust speeds.

Monday a new trough will arrive, carrying gusty winds and some moisture along with it. We expect to see gusty winds kicking up choppy lakes and some blowing dust, so take caution if you have plans for travel or lake recreation. A Lake Wind Advisory has been posted for area lakes for tomorrow. Gusts along ridgetops will reach upwards of 50 mph, with gusts across the leeside valleys reaching 35 mph. Although, jet dynamics suggests there could be a bit of downsloping effect along the ridges realized tomorrow, the winds don't seem to mix all the way to valley floors, which will limit the wind speeds. Nevertheless, it will be a breezy day for most of the area.

As for moisture, PWAT sampling of soundings along the Oregon border reveal readings of 0.7-0.8 inches of precipitable water available. Sounds pretty impressive for this area, but the low- level dry air that has been in place would need to be saturated to see that amount of water translate to accumulations at the surface. Even more impressive is the significant decrease in POPs, earlier advertised as 20-50%, but now guidance is showing 10-30%. The expectation is that the lower levels will see an increase in relative humidity, but the showers in the sky may not hit the ground. Owing to this dry air, the best we can squeeze out of the QPF will be a few hundredths to a trace. This will also affect fire weather, in that our relative humidity readings will increase into the day on Monday, abating fire weather conditions into the evening hours. That said, there will be a couple hours of elevated fire weather conditions as winds pick up out ahead of the arrival of the moisture. See details in the Fire Weather section below.

This trough will be short-lived over our region, so by Tuesday we already see the trough exiting to our east. And by Wednesday, the warming and drying trend will return, and remain with us through the end of the week. HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR conditions present today across the region, with breezy westerly winds picking up gusts to 20 kts this afternoon. Winds will increase for Monday, with gusts to 35 kts possible, especially for KNFL and KLOL. LLWS and mountain wave turbulence could develop in pockets across the Sierra for Monday.

* Showers are expected to be light on Monday, with a 10% chance for showers for Tahoe Basin terminals KTRK and KTVL, and over the Basin and Range terminals of KLOL and KNFL, chances of 5-10%. HRICH

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions will return for a few hours during the afternoon on Monday, when winds will begin to increase ahead of an incoming trough. Gusts to 35 mph will overlap relative humidities ranging 10-15% across pockets of Pershing, Churchill, Lyon and Mono counties for a couple hours Monday afternoon. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ002>004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ072.