textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy afternoon winds are likely with a weak system to our north today. * A warming and drying trend continues through the weekend with above average high temperatures.

* Near record heat is becoming increasingly likely from Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Upper level ridge continues over the region this morning leading to clear skies and light winds. Although, patchy fog is still likely over the Martis Valley early this morning. Later today, a quick and weak shortwave trough will be passing through the PacNW resulting in an increase of our typical westerly winds. Therefore, expect gusts in the 20-30 mph range, especially in areas north of I-80. Afternoon highs will be similar to yesterday, 80s in western NV valleys and 70s or lower for the Sierra and higher elevations.

By tonight, the upper level ridge is reestablished keeping the gradual warm up trend going through early next week. Afternoon temperatures over western NV/NE CA valleys will be in the low 90s, while in the Sierra will be in the low 80s. These temperatures are 15-20 degrees above average for this time of the year. NWS HeatRisk is also showing areas of moderate heat with a 15-80% chance of reaching this category across most valleys. Furthermore, expect several daily high temperatures records to be broken between Sunday and Tuesday.

As the ridge axis moves east from the Eastern Pacific into the Four Corners area next week, subtropical moisture will start to be advected north in the backside of the ridge. By Tuesday afternoon, several models are highlighting the return for chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Sierra and other area mountains. Current chances are at 15% or less, but models are diverging in the solution of other disturbances in our vicinity and to our north that could result in higher probabilities of rain and storms for the Sierra, NE CA and far western NV. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with the additional moisture and cloud cover, but highs will remain above average for the foreseeable future.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. However, periods of IFR to LIFR conditions persist at KTRK between 11-16Z. Winds will be from the west between 10-15 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts from 18-03Z. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.