textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty winds and minor impacts to fire, recreation, and air and ground travel expected today into Thursday.

* Chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms increase this afternoon near the Oregon border, and linger through Thursday.

* Dry and warmer weather is favored Friday into the weekend. Rain, thunderstorms, and breezy winds may return early next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper low passage will deliver gusty winds, and a low chance of rain and thunderstorms today into Thursday. S/SW gusts increase to 25-35 mph this afternoon from the Tahoe-Reno area south to Mono and Mineral counties. Locally stronger gusts of 40-45 mph remain possible in wind prone areas such as I-580 near Washoe Lake and US-395 between Mono Lake and Mammoth. As such, plan on gusty crosswinds and more difficult driving conditions along US-395 between Reno and Mammoth, especially along those windier stretches. Gusty winds will also make for rougher lake waters and a few hours of localized near-critical fire weather conditions from the Sierra Front into Mono and Mineral counties today. Meanwhile, wind gusts along the Sierra crest will increase from 45-50 mph in the afternoon to near 60 mph overnight into Thursday morning. Expect bumpy flights over the Sierra and a chilly Thursday morning for higher Sierra elevations. Winds remain breezy Thursday, but more typically so with gusts of 20-30 mph in the afternoon.

Farther north, rain chances increase to 10-20% this afternoon across portions of Lassen County into the Surprise Valley and far N Washoe County. Weak instability and moisture will also support a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few of the more aggressive solutions depict a narrow band of rain with possibly embedded lightning developing from Lassen County into northern Washoe County early Thursday morning. However, this seems more like an outlier scenario with only a 10-15% chance of materializing. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase to 20-30% Thursday afternoon, but remain confined near the Oregon border.

After a couple days of cooler than normal weather, a warming trend will bring temperatures back to seasonal averages by the weekend with mid-70s to mid-80s daytime highs. The only other notable item is a dry frontal passage Friday that encourages breezy E-NE winds along and west of the Sierra crest Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, this weekend is trending towards being a warm and dry one. Ensembles continue to hint at increasing winds and rain chances early next week, particularly for areas south of Tahoe/Reno.

-Salas

AVIATION

Surface winds increase this afternoon for all terminals, with initial S-SW gusts reaching 20-25 kts at KTRK-KTVL and 25-30 kts at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV. Winds are expected to shift to westerly at KRNO- KCXP-KMEV between 00-03Z this evening. Stronger SW gusts of 30-35 kts are favored at KMMH this afternoon. S/SW FL100 winds increase to 35 kts after 03Z, increasing LLWS and mountain wave turbulence concerns in the Sierra.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.