textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Mountain snow and valley rain chances linger into tonight for Mono and Mineral Counties with the remainder of the region seeing precipitation chances end by late morning.

* A brief break in precipitation is forecast for Wednesday followed by another weather system on Thursday into Friday.

* After the next weather system departs the region, a drier period is expected over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

According to the latest RAP upper air analysis, an upper low is residing over the coast of central CA yielding a southeasterly to easterly flow over the CWA. When looking at the current satellite imagery and radar, the effects of the aforementioned low for this morning can be seen in the form of the wrap-around wintry precipitation in areas to the south of I-80. Going through the day, forecast guidance has the low continuing to progress down towards southern which will pull the precipitation south with it. While a good portion of the region sees precipitation chances end by the late morning, the low is not expected to move far enough south to end valley rain and mountain snow chances for Mono and Mineral Counties throughout the rest of today. As such, the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for Mono County especially for the White Mountains. Please see weather.gov/rev/winter for more information on this extension as well as the remaining snowfall forecast totals. High temperatures for today are forecast to be a few degrees warmer than those experienced on Monday with overnight low temperatures being a few degrees cooler since cloud coverage will diminish going through the day. The first 32F low temperature of the season could be recorded at the Reno-Tahoe International Airport tonight as the latest NBM probabilities show a 55-60% chance. If it hits, this would break the latest first fall freezing temperature record which is 11/16 set in 2016.

Going into Wednesday, models project the low to continue a eastward journey as an upper ridge moves into the area. This will cause all remaining precipitation chances to end and give the area some respite with dry conditions. Daytime highs on Wednesday for western NV look to be in the upper 40s to middle 50s range with the Sierra communities seeing highs in middle 40s to lower 50s range. Wednesday night's low temperatures look to be similar to those seen during the previous night with the western NV valleys in the lower to middle 30s and the Sierra communities in the teens and 20s.

After the calendar turns to Thursday, models show another Pacific low moving towards the CWA causing another round of rain and mountain snow. A bit early to see specific details, but the current forecast has a 60-75% PoP in the Sierra, 45-60% PoP at the Sierra Front, and 25-45% PoP for areas in the NV Basin and Range. Looking at the latest snow total probabilities, there is around a 30-50% chance of seeing 4 inches or more by Friday morning at the Sierra crest from the Tahoe region down to Mono County. By midday Friday, the low looks to travel farther away from the area with a ridge moving which ends the precipitation chances. Extended guidance shows dry conditions then prevailing over the weekend. -078

AVIATION

Low clouds along with lower visibilities due to a wintry weather system continue this morning in the area causing MVFR-LIFR conditions at all area TAF sites. Precipitation chances look to end by 18/17Z allowing conditions to improve and then return to VFR conditions by 22Z at most area terminals. The exception to this statement is at KMMH where chances for wrap-around wintry precipitation looks to continue into tonight. Light and variable winds are to be be expected across the region during the 12Z TAF period as well. KTRK may see FZFG due to the recent precipitation starting at 19/03Z and going into Wednesday morning. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ073.