textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry weather with afternoon breezes on Sunday.

* Increasing south to southwest winds elevate fire concerns and pose impacts to recreation and travel Monday.

* Rain, mountain snow, and thunderstorms return to the forecast for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Warm and sunny weekend continues ahead of an approaching Pacific low pressure system. Main forecast challenge is the track/position of the low as it gets pinched off from the main flow Sunday night and Monday, then meanders off the CA coast Monday-Tuesday before slowly moving inland Wednesday-Friday.

Initial hazard is the increasing south to southwest winds with impacts to fire and recreation for Monday. Impacts appear to be limited to the Sierra into northeast CA and far northwest NV as the low splits from the main flow and drops south along the CA coast. Not a ton of confidence in peak gust forecast as surface gusts in the models remain near and below 30 mph, but the flow at 10,000-15,000 feet msl could support stronger gusts of 30-40 mph for 2-5 hours and Sierra ridge winds up near 60-70 mph.

As the low pushes inland it will drag moisture into the region from the south late Tuesday with precipitation chances rising to 50-60% Wednesday-Thursday. Warm surface air, and instability with the low opens the door for a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday. The track makes locating the rain/snow amount forecast difficult, but for now ensembles are showing a 50/50 chance of 0.25-0.50 inch of liquid and 10-20% chance of 1 inch or more along and south of I-80. While the low originates from the Gulf of Alaska, the air mass with it warms when it wobbles off the CA coast leaving snow level forecast no lower than 7000-8000 feet. Dense-wet snow chances should be confined to the Sierra from Carson Pass southward to Mammoth and the White Mountains; with 50-60% chance of 2+ inches, and 10-20% chance of 12+ inches. If you have plans to travel over the High Sierra passes or be in the backcounty later next week, snow may be impactful. Brong

AVIATION

VFR conditions the next 2-3 days. West breezes return Sunday afternoon with mountain wave turbulence and S/SW surface winds to 30 kts late Sunday and Monday. Brong

FIRE WEATHER

South-Southwest wind gusts Monday afternoon will climb to near 30 mph with localized gusts up to 40 mph for the Sierra north of Highways 50/88 into Plumas-Lassen and into northern Washoe County, and the Reno-Carson-Douglas-Storey area. Winds along with recent warm and dry conditions will elevate the wildfire threat and may produce localized critical conditions Monday afternoon. Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.