textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions through Thursday across the region, with afternoon highs near 100 degrees in lower valleys.

* Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon, with stronger winds possible Friday into the weekend.

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm potential returns south of US 50 Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

The weather pattern remains dominated by an upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. This ridge will continue to advect a very warm and relatively dry airmass across the Great Basin and Eastern Sierra through Thursday. Temperatures peak today and Thursday with lower valleys across western Nevada observing afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 100F. Hottest areas will be in the NV Basin and Range, Mineral and the Chalfant Valley. Sierra communities will see highs in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the 60s for valleys and 40s-50s for the Sierra.

Afternoon breezes will be typical for Wednesday and Thursday, with gusts generally in the 10-20 mph range. By Friday, the upper ridge shifts towards the Four Corners region, and a weak trough approaches the California coast. This shift will lead to increasing winds across the region Friday and Saturday with gusts to 30-35 mph (with a 40-70% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph), that could bring elevated to near critical fire risk for northeastern CA and northwestern NV.

As the ridge continues to shift, an increase in monsoonal moisture is anticipated for the far eastern and southern portions of the CWA by Friday night. The continued eastward shift of the ridge towards the Southern Plains, keeps a southerly flow, allowing more monsoonal moisture into the region through early next week. This will lead to a return of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily to the Eastern Sierra and eastern portions of western Nevada with the main concerns for outflow winds and occasional lightning. The chances for rain and storms remain at 10-35% with the best chances on Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

A gradual cooling trend also starts this weekend and continues into next week. Afternoon highs are expected to drop into the low 90s and upper 80s for western Nevada valleys, and low 80s and 70s for Sierra communities.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue through much of the week with typical breezes up to 20 kts. Lower CIGS/VIS for KMMH by Friday with afternoon shower and thunderstorm development (15-20% chance). Otherwise, breezes increase to 30-35 kts for all terminals Friday and Saturday.

-Giralte/HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.