textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry weather prevails through Sunday afternoon with areas of smoke this afternoon and evening.
* Weak low pressure system brings a 10% chance of showers for the Sierra and northeast CA on Sunday evening into Monday morning. * Warm and above average temperatures prevail through the foreseeable future with a little hiccup early next week.
DISCUSSION
Fair weather prevails today. Some high clouds will move in later tonight, but that's about it for the weather today. Although, smoke from the Dome Fire will make it to the Sierra and Sierra Front this afternoon and evening, per the HRRR. Similar conditions are expected to continue over the next few days with an upper level ridge dominating the synoptic pattern over the Desert Southwest through Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be rising to well above normal with some isolated areas observing moderate HeatRisk. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday in lower valleys and upper 70s to mid-80s for Sierra communities.
A little hiccup appears on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning with the passage of a weak upper shortwave trough. This system may bring slightly enhanced westerly winds compared to what we are seeing today. Shower chances increase up to 10%, mainly over the Sierra and northeast CA. So a few light rain showers or virga is possible, but confidence is very low as most ensembles are pretty dry. Temperatures will drop around 2-5 degrees Monday behind the associated cold front. So, will still be above normal for October.
Next week, the ridge fully returns keeping dry and warm weather for the second week of the month. However, we will start seeing more systems in the PacNW which will help turn the pattern closer to a zonal flow which will keep the temperatures for valleys in the mid-80s, and Sierra communities in the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. Winds may increase a bit too, bringing back typical afternoon gusts.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR conditions prevail over the 24 hr period. Winds will be generally light and VRB, except for terrain-driven afternoon breezes up to 12 kts between 20-03Z.
-HC
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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