textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild weather with hazy morning skies continues through Thursday.

* A Pacific storm will deliver strong winds, valley rain, and mountain snow Friday into Saturday.

* Additional storms may renew recreation and travel impacts next week.

DISCUSSION

A dry and mild weather pattern remains in place through Thursday, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to 60s -- or about 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Stout inversions will continue to make for hazy morning skies and degraded air quality, especially in the vicinity of any prescribed burns.

A significant pattern change unfolds Friday and over the weekend as a series of Pacific storms traverse the region. The incipient storm arrives on Friday, delivering strong winds in the afternoon with valley rain and mountain snow through Saturday morning. Strongest winds are favored across NE California, the Sierra, and far W Nevada where there is moderate to high likelihood (40% chance or better) that S/SW gusts exceed 45 mph Friday afternoon. Reno and other communities along US- 395 and I-580 may realize higher end gusts of 60+ mph given a more southerly wind gradient, although chances of this are only 20-30%. Sierra ridgetop winds will also become rather strong with winds gusting to 80 mph or greater at times. Elsewhere, expect gusts of 30-40 mph. Needless to say, Friday is shaping up to be a windy day, so be prepared for impacts to recreation and air/ground travel.

Rain and mountain snow chances begin to increase from the Tahoe Basin northward late Friday morning, spreading eastward into western Nevada and Mono County in the afternoon and evening. Snow levels will be more elevated at the onset of the storm (7000 ft or higher), but will sharply fall to around 6000 ft overnight. As such, snow impacts to travel will be confined to higher Sierra passes Friday afternoon and evening, then expanding to lower Sierra communities and roadways Friday night into Saturday morning. Heaviest snowfall is favored between Friday night and early Saturday, lending to a 60%+ probability of 6" or more of snow above 7500' and 50% chance of a foot or more along highest Sierra peaks by Saturday afternoon. Truckee, Lake Tahoe communities, and stretches along US-395 in Mono County have a high probability of 3"+ by Saturday afternoon. If you plan to travel in/across the Sierra, be sure to do it before Friday or be prepared to face significant travel disruptions. While of lower likelihood, flooding concerns (especially in poor drainage areas) are greatest across W Lassen and Plumas counties where there is a 40-70% chance of seeing 1" or more of rain.

We'll get a brief break in between storms between late Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, which may allow for an opportunity for trans-Sierra travel assuming road conditions improve (check with CalTrans and NDOT). Then, our next storm arrives Sunday evening, and will provide another bout of rain and mountain snow through Monday. An additional storm is possible later next week, but confidence is low.

-Salas

AVIATION

* KRNO: VFR conditions with gusts up to 10-15 kts each afternoon through Thursday. Valley inversions continue each morning into Thursday, reducing slantwise visibilities.

* Elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals with light winds. Ridgetop winds are lighter today for all eastern Sierra terminals.

* Confidence is increasing for the potential of rain, higher elevations snow, and stronger winds on Friday and Saturday, impacting all eastern Sierra and western Nevada terminals.

-McKellar/Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning CAZ072.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning CAZ073.