textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler temperatures, gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow expected this week, bringing impacts to recreation and travel.

* Warmer and drier weather with gusty NE ridgetop winds return on Friday followed by lighter winds Saturday.

DISCUSSION

We've got a lot going on this week, so buckle in! For specifics on snow totals and levels, please see the Avalanche Discussion below.

Today:

* Warmest day of the work week with highs in the low 70s and 60s for valleys and Sierra communities, respectively. Upper level cloud cover will continue to build today, which may reduce how warm we get. Afternoon gusty winds also continue; a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Pyramid Lake and Lake Tahoe until 10 pm tonight.

* Shower chances (10-20%) in NE CA and along the OR border today, though little lightning (<5% chance) expected. Model soundings for Susanville today, albeit the fact this is a bit south, show a healthy inverted-V profile with PWATs of 0.4" or less. Showers that develop in the region will likely be of the virga variety. Hi-res CAMs also want to put some showers in the Basin and Range and Mono county after sunset tonight and overnight. Shower chances range from 15-25% for that time period.

Tomorrow (Tuesday):

* Our first system moves in late tonight, and will be the warmer of the two systems this week. It's also a bit more convective in nature; most of Nevada is in an area of general thunder from the Storm Prediction Center tomorrow. Snow levels will be mostly above 7000' with most of the snowfall expected in Mono county. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Mono county from 5am Tuesday through 5am Wednesday. Please see the product for more details. Snow for Tahoe and along Sierra passes (I-80, US-50) is still likely and may cause localized travel impacts.

* Rain showers are likely for valley locations, though QPF totals are 0.05" or less. The main concern for W NV valleys will be wind. Gusts of 25-30 mph are expected, with locally higher along wind prone locations. Precipitation will likely dampen the possibility for blowing dust downwind of Basin and Range desert sinks.

Wednesday - Thursday:

* The stronger and more potent of the two systems drops in Wednesday. This will bring colder temperatures and snow levels down to 5000-5500'. Snow is more likely for the Tahoe Basin and northward with this wave of precip, with rain/snow mix for foothills. Snow will reach Sierra pass level, and will likely bring winter travel impacts. To stay up to date on road conditions, please visit NVRoads and Caltrans QuickMap.

* Rain for Sierra Front communities Wednesday afternoon will likely shift to wind by late Wednesday night into Thursday. 700 hPa wind speeds late Wednesday are hitting upwards of 70 kts with model soundings for KRNO highlighting a strong inversion at 700 hPa, setting us up for a downslope wind event. As such, a High Wind Watch is in effect from 8pm Wednesday until 2pm Thursday for both the Sierra Front and Mono county. Please see the product for more details. Expect both air and ground travel impacts, with wind prone locations gusting upwards of 60 mph.

Upper level high pressure settles over the Pacific NW by this Friday, bringing a warming and drying trend over the weekend. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s and 60s (valleys and high elevations, respectively) by Sunday.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected through today with gusty winds of 20-30 kts this afternoon for all terminals. FL100 winds increase to 40kt after 06Z tonight, before dropping back to 20-30kt by midday Tuesday.

Light SHRA returns for Sierra Front terminals by midday Tuesday, with SHRASN likely for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. Snow levels will be above 7000', bringing low chances for runway accumulations. MVFR/IFR conditions likely due to lower CIGS/VIS in periods of SHRA/SHRASN. Mountain obscurations will also be likely.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-004.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon NVZ003.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ073.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon CAZ073.