textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably mild and dry through the weekend, then slight cooling and breezy winds Sat-Sun with a weak front. * Strong high pressure will likely produce record warmth next week with continued dry conditions.

* Longer range outlooks strongly favor dry and warm conditions going through at least the third week of March.

DISCUSSION

Unseasonable warmth and dry conditions will be the main story for at least the next week as a series of progressively stronger high pressure systems build across the west.

Temperatures will warm nearly 15F above average today-Friday, with mid-70s across W.Nevada and low/mid 60s for Sierra valleys. Then a mostly dry front will brush by the Nevada-Oregon border resulting in 3-6 degrees of cooling Saturday-Sunday.

Breezy northwest winds will accompany the front with gusts of 20-30 mph mainly northward of I-80 Saturday afternoon before weakening and becoming northeast to east by Sunday. Only a 15% chance for a light shower in E.Modoc Co Saturday afternoon.

Then an unseasonbly strong upper ridge will begin to build next week which will likely deliver record March temperatures. W.Nevada valleys will warm into the low-mid 80s with Sierra valleys seeing low-mid 70s. These high temperatures are more typical of early to mid June or about 20-25F above average for mid-March.

Daily high temperatures will likely be broken during the Monday- Friday timeframe next week with Tuesday being targeted as the warmest day of the week. Our current forecasted high temperature on Tuesday for Reno (84F) would set an all-time record for the warmest March day on record which is currently 83F which was set on March 31, 1966. We've also never recorded 3 consecutive days in row with high temperatures in the 80s in Reno, but that record may be in play as well. Aside from the warmth, there are no real prospects for precipitation in the next 7-10 days. Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through the upcoming week with afternoon west breezes with gusts 15-20 kt Thurs-Fri. Winds may then edge upward a bit for Saturday with W-NW gusts around 20 kt.

For next week, prepare for rising density altitudes as afternoon highs exceed 80 degrees at western NV terminals starting Monday. Justin/Fuentes

HYDROLOGY

Unseasonably mild temperatures through this weekend, followed by likely record warmth next week will accelerate snow melt next week. While rivers will run fast and cold, they are expected to remain well below flood levels. However, this premature runoff will greatly reduce late spring to early summer water supply conditions. Bardsley/Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.