textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions expected today with slightly warmer daytime high temperatures.

* A mild cold front will bring light rain and mountain snow chances areawide along with gusty winds, strongest across the Western Nevada Basin and Range and eastern Sierra.

* Dry conditions and above average temperatures are forecast through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Calm and dry conditions continue today across the region. A transient ridge is to thank for this weather today, though its sunshine and warmth won't last long. Our next storm - a mild cold front - is set to arrive tomorrow morning.

First reaching Lassen County and the Warner Mountains around 7 AM will be the leading edge of precipitation. The snow level will hover around 6000-6500 ft at the start of the precip and steadily drop to below valley floors as the front moves SE through the day. Mono County will be the last area to hold onto >6000ft snow levels until after 4 PM when they finally start to decrease. Precip chances start off around 70-90% in NE CA, then drop to 30-40% across the Sierra and W NV tomorrow afternoon. QPF amounts range from 0.05-0.20" for this whole system, where Lassen County and the Sierra crest will see the higher range of those amounts and W NV and the Tahoe basin will see the lower range.

Gusty winds out of the west will be the main hazard with this cold front tomorrow. We'll see widespread gusts of 30-35 mph and wind prone locations along US-95 in Mineral County and US-395 in Mono County gusting 45-55 mph. Peak winds will be between 10AM-7PM.

As the front pushes SE throughout the afternoon, temperatures across W NV and NE CA will peak in the 55-62 range and just barely over 40 degrees in the Sierra before dropping significantly after the frontal passage. Morning temperatures on Thursday will be 32 degrees or less for all of W NV and NE CA, and down into the teens for Sierra valleys.

Moving ahead to Thursday and beyond, we dry out and warm up. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will be the main theme through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures may heat up to 70 by Sunday for W NV valleys and stay elevated into next week. Stay tuned to see when our next chance for rain/snow will be.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at most area TAF sites today with little to no cloud cover. The next weather system is expected by Wednesday morning which will provide west to northwest winds gusting 30kt before the frontal passage, and light rain and mountain snow as the front moves from NW to SE throughout the afternoon.

The timing of the light rain and snow will be between 21Z-04Z Wednesday for the Sierra and Sierra Front, and 04Z-07Z for KMMH. Precip will be primarily rain, though some terminals like KTRK and KTVL may see snow after 00Z. FL100 winds will peak around 35-40kt midday Wednesday. Expect LLWS and mountain wave turbulence with this system.

-Justin

AVALANCHE

A cold front bringing light rain and snow showers chances (30-40%) is expected across the Sierra Wednesday between noon and 10PM. Tahoe will get the precip first, then as the front moves south, Mono County will finally see some light showers later on in the evening.

* Snow levels and amounts: Snow levels look to be 6-6.5 kft tomorrow morning then dropping to <6 kft in the afternoon. Minimal additional snowfall accumulation is expected (15-20% chance of at least 2" in the Tahoe Basin above 6 kft, 15-20% chance 0.5" or more in Mono County above 6 kft).

* SLR and SWE: SLRs 7-10:1 at the start of the snow, then increasing to 12-14:1 as the front pushes south of Tahoe. Additional SWE expected to be less than 0.20 inches along the highest peaks.

* Wind gusts: Southwest-west ridgetop wind gusts up to 75 mph in the afternoon.

* Lightning: Thunderstorm chances generally <10%, some areas around Tahoe could reach 10-15% in more convective showers between 1-6 PM. -Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ002.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ001-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday CAZ072.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday CAZ073.