textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with east to southeast breezes this afternoon.

* Increasing south to southwest winds by Monday afternoon as a storm approaches the west coast.

* Chances of rain and mountain snow showers may return by mid-late next week, but confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Breezy E/SE winds this afternoon with gusts 25-30 mph may produce minor fire concerns in far northeast CA/northwest NV, and also in Mineral County. While most areas should see these winds diminish tonight, a small area of enhanced SE-S winds (gusts 30-35 mph) is still indicated over Mineral and SE Churchill counties overnight into early Saturday morning, bringing a short period of choppy conditions on Walker Lake.

Lighter winds then prevail through most of the weekend, except for a return of modest zephyr-type southwest/west breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) Sunday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will rise into the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra.

For next week, an approaching storm from the eastern Pacific is expected to bring increased S-SW winds Monday afternoon, although the latest guidance is trending slower with this storm's approach toward the west coast. This would delay the onset of winds and also cap the speeds a bit with gusts more in the 30-35 mph range from the Reno-Tahoe areas northward to the OR border. These winds with ongoing dry conditions could lead to a period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.

For the remainder of next week, this storm appears to show a greater potential of stalling offshore Tuesday and reducing shower chances across the region. Then from Wednesday through Friday, a more varied storm track continues to limit confidence in rain and mountain snow chances/amounts, especially north of I-80. Currently the eastern Sierra and Tahoe are favored with 50-70% chances centered on Wednesday, but dropping to a broader 25-50% elsewhere. Showers could linger or even have a delayed onset until later next week, as some scenarios hold the low offshore before finally moving inland as a weaker system. A few wetter outcomes are still within the realm of the ensemble guidance ranges, but at this time a less significant precip event is more likely next week. Cooler temperatures are still on the table next week from Tuesday onward, with highs generally in the upper 50s-mid 60s for lower elevations and lower-mid 50s for Sierra communities. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.