textproduct: Reno

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the Oregon border and parts of west central NV southward to Mono County. * Warm days with afternoon breezes and dry conditions, brief elevated fire weather conditions likely.

* Hotter temperatures with Moderate to isolated Major HeatRisk arrive later this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

CAM guidance highlights two areas for convection today: NE CA into northern Washoe county along the OR border and southern Eastern Sierra of Mono county into southern Lyon and Mineral counties. Model soundings show CAPE upwards of 500 J/kg in the northern sector today, with 200-300 J/kg for Mono county and parts of western Nevada. As such, the best chance for lightning will be along the OR border today. With inverted-V soundings and PWATs of 0.4-0.6", the main threat leans towards dry lightning. Any showers and storms that develop off the Eastern Sierra may push up towards the Pine Nut mountains today, but will remain primarily south of US-50.

Afternoon breezes increase Tuesday and Wednesday, just a touch above our typical zephyr winds (gusting 25-30 mph). With the dry conditions, we could see pockets of localized elevated to critical fire weather. Continue to avoid activities that may cause a spark.

The ridge continues to build overhead as the week progresses, helping us warm up to above seasonal averages for the weekend. This translates to near triple digit temps in lower valleys, and upper 80s for Sierra communities. As of now, there is a 45% chance the Reno-Tahoe Intl' Airport will reach 100F Friday, with a 65% chance for 100F on Saturday. These rising temperatures will allow isolated areas of Major HeatRisk to creep in. Recreating this week/weekend? Make sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the shade.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions for all terminals today, with a less than 10% chance for showers for Sierra Front terminals. 10-15% chances showers at KMMH this afternoon, which may bring brief MVFR conditions. Afternoon breezes for all terminals, with gusts up to 30 kts each day.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.

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