textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A weather system will bring showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures this weekend. Be prepared for recreation and travel impacts due to gusty winds, rain, hail, and mountain snow.

* Cool, showery weather continues Monday to Wednesday. Snow may impact travel over mountain passes above 8000 feet Monday.

* Warm weather returns late next week.

DISCUSSION

Blocking pattern over the eastern Pacific remains in place for the next 4-5 days. Today's high pressure will move off and be replaced by a cut off low along the California coast that will bring showers and thunderstorms this weekend. The cut off low is forecast to move inland and across NV Monday to Wednesday keeping the shower activity and cooler temperatures in place.

A few highlights...

Shower and thunderstorms will begin Saturday afternoon, simulations show the activity anywhere from along the Sierra Crest to a line from Pyramid Lake area southward to Lyon and Mineral Counties. Those with outdoor plans should prepare for erratic gusty winds of 30+ mph (may not be a great boating weekend), rain, hail, and mountain snow above 9000 feet. Models increase instability and forcing mechanism for stronger thunderstorm development Sunday, so really keep an eye to the sky if you are out and about this weekend.

Rain-snow lines are forecast to lower 8000 feet where the low pressure system tracks inland Sunday night and Monday. For now that is from South Tahoe to Mono County. Model ensemble systems are producing a 50-60% chance of 4 inches of snow along the Mono County crest Monday. This may lead to travel impact especially to high mountain roads such as CA routes 88, 89, 108, 120, and the Mt Rose Summit. Heavier showers and thunderstorms can quickly drop rain-snow lines an additional 1000 feet or produce accumulating hail on mountain roadways.

Shower activity will decrease Tuesday and Wednesday but with less forcing, meaning spring showers will be around during the afternoon hours but remain light with minimal travel impacts.

Warm weather return for the second half of next week with afternoon highs across the NV valley near 80 by for Thursday-Friday. However the warmth may be short lived as the next low pressure system with the eastern Pacific blocking pattern arrives for the following weekend. Brong

AVIATION

VFR conditions with light winds tonight. KTRK has a 30% chance to see FZFG tonight through sunrise.

An incoming system on Saturday will increase winds out of the south and southwest 20kts in the afternoon. Shower chances jump up to 30-40% on Saturday and 50-80% on Sunday, each with a 15% and 30% chance of lightning, respectively. Mountain tops may become obscured as cloud heights lower through the weekend. Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.