textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Light winds and valley inversions will keep hazy skies and air quality reductions into this weekend, with patchy freezing fog in some Sierra valleys.

* Breezy to gusty east winds for Sierra ridges will diminish this morning and remain light through the weekend.

* Dry weather prevails through the upcoming week with above average daytime temperatures and typical chilly nights, although inversions may weaken next week.

DISCUSSION

Today continues the theme of "what you've been seeing is what you'll get" for the weather conditions. So areas that have been warming up to the 50s and 60s (and even near 70 degrees along US-6 in southeast Mono County) can expect similar results today, while the Mono Lake basin continues to be stuck in the freezing fog with highs near or below freezing. Sierra ridge gusts have been a little stronger compared to the previous couple of nights, currently ranging from 45-60 mph but these winds are projected to diminish by this afternoon.

For this weekend through at least the middle of next week, dry conditions continue with some flavor of valley inversions remaining. A few subtle changes in the orientation of the upper level ridge will occur, with the axis lined up along the Sierra. This will keep ridge top winds light overall, while at the surface a weak west flow develops east of the Sierra crest in Mono County, which may help to nudge some of the freezing fog away from the US-395 corridor near Mono Lake and allow some warming each afternoon. However, with only modest mixing this fog is poised to return each night.

Elsewhere, consistent daily temperatures are expected, although a brief flattening of the ridge Saturday night-Sunday will bring a swath of cirrus across the region and weaken the inversion a bit. This would allow Sunday's highs to climb a few more degrees, with the best chance for areas around Reno, Carson City and Minden to reach 60 degrees. Another warmup similar to Sunday could also return toward the middle of next week.

As we get to later next week, the most recent ensemble guidance is trending drier with a potential weather system in the Thursday- Friday time frame. Light shower chances are only in the 10-20% range and largely confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra from Thursday afternoon into Friday. This weak trough passage may help to finally scour out the persistent inversions, although confidence is lower in this system producing enough wind or following a favorable track to remove the more stubborn inversion layers. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for the main terminals as we go into the holiday weekend, except for KTRK where patchy and mainly shallow FZFG is again expected at times this morning through around 15-16Z. Easterly Sierra ridge top wind gusts up to 45 kt will decrease later this morning. As these east winds end later today, FZFG coverage for tonight into Saturday morning around KTRK will likely increase, and could linger later in the morning until the 17-18Z time frame. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.