textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry through Thursday with moderate HeatRisk.

* Increasing winds with fire weather concerns Friday & Saturday.

* Cooler temperatures for the weekend with light showers possible.

DISCUSSION

* Warm temperatures expected through Thursday. However the latest guidance has backed off the intensity some such that HeatRisk is mainly moderate in lower elevations with only very isolated Major on Tuesday. We'll likely see some buildups over the high terrain each afternoon, but at this point the chance of t-storms is low, generally 5% or less.

* Pattern gets more interesting starting Thursday, as a series of deepening troughs moves into the west. Primary concern is wind and fire weather. Deterministic models are showing potential for 30-45 knots at 700mb Friday-Saturday and NBM translating that to a 40-60% chance of peak surface gusts above 40 MPH along Hwy 395 eastward into Nevada. Friday & Saturday have a hearty combination of low humidity and long duration (4-6 hour) breezy winds, except Tahoe/NE Cal where humidities are a bit higher. Thursday could be a sneaky day up in NE California with 2-3 hour period of critical winds before humidity rises.

* Secondary impacts include shower potential Friday & Saturday along with much cooler temps Saturday & Sunday. On the shower front, we're looking at mainly Tahoe up into NE California with a 20-50% chance of measurable precip each day Friday & Saturday, while wetting rain probabilities (0.1") are lower generally 10-20%. Isolated t-storms possible too with NBM indicating 5-15% chance of thunder each day in these same areas. Snow lines are high at first, but on Saturday within the cooler air aloft, they drop down to 8,000-9,000'. So we can't rule out for higher peaks from Tahoe northward to the Warner Mtns if we end up with a band of heavier precip there could be some snow in the mix.

* Well below normal temps for the upcoming weekend are looking increasingly likely, with NBM trending cooler with each run lately. At RNO there's a 60% chance of remaining below 80F Saturday and a 70% chance Sunday. Impressive for late June. At night, Sierra valleys will likely get some frost Sunday & Monday mornings, with 60%+ odds of temps falling to 35F or less. Even Minden seeing 10% chance of meeting that mark.

* Pattern looks to rebound to more of a summer mode next week, with guidance indicating a steady climb in max temps and a return of typical zephyr breezes. No significant heat, wind, or precip signals in the week two outlooks.

-Chris

AVIATION

* Warm and dry VFR weather through Wednesday with typical west/northwest afternoon and evening breezes. Gusts on the order of 20-25 knots.

* A few buildups over the high terrain each afternoon, but chances for showers and storms are less than 5%.

* Density altitude may be a factor for some aircraft especially Tuesday with the week's hottest temperatures.

* Can't entirely rule out fog at TRK 10-15z/Tuesday. GFS LAMP guidance only showing one hour of reduced visibilities suggesting patchy/shallow nature, with only light rainfall in the vicinity over the past 5 days.

-Chris

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.