textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* There are low chances for showers and storms this afternoon in Mono, Mineral, and far southern Lyon counties. Otherwise, temperatures will be above average.

* Areas of smoke and haze may locally impact visibility and air quality the next several days due to fires in California and northern Washoe County.

* Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

* With high pressure building over southern UT and northern AZ, our warming trend will continue today. High temperatures will end up around 2-5 degrees above average for the last day of August. High resolution models still indicate there is enough moisture and instability to allow for a 10-25% chance for showers and storms in Mono, Mineral, Alpine, southern Douglas and far southern Lyon counties by the afternoon. Otherwise, the majority of the region will remain dry. Monday temperatures look to be similar to today, with low to mid-90s in western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower elevations of Mono County. The eastern Sierra communities will enjoy mostly 80s, and around 70s higher up. Monday storm chances look to be less than 15% in the eastern Sierra.

* The next pattern change is still in store for Tuesday through the end of the week. With the upper high in this current location, moisture from the south will stream into the region. PWATs are around 0.5-0.7", which is around the 90th percentile. With deeper moisture in place, the chances for showers and storms on Tuesday is still 20-40% areawide, with around a 50% chance in the eastern Sierra south of US-50. The remaining wildcard in this pattern is a negative tilted trough off the CA coast. Although the models are in better agreement in depicting this aforementioned trough, there are still considerable differences in the models with timing and location of this feature. But, given inverted-V profiles and faster moving cells the risk of hybrid thunderstorms and fire weather concerns are higher, especially Tuesday. Storm chances decrease on Wednesday into the weekend, with a daily 10-25% chance for showers and storms each afternoon. The only remaining issue for the area will be smoke and haze from ongoing fires in northwest CA and in the southern Sierra. -McKellar

AVIATION

* Smoke filtering in from the Garnet Fire may bring periods of visibility reduction at KMMH. The Buffalo Fire in northern Washoe County and fires in northern CA may also bring visibility reductions to portions of western NV and northeast CA. Any other restrictions to visibility will be primarily slantwise due to haze aloft. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

* Mostly dry conditions today, with a 10-25% chance for a stray storm to form in Mono/Mineral/southern Douglas/Lyon counties, impacting KMMH. Storm chances expand once again by Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

* High density altitudes may become a problem in western NV today and Monday.

-McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.