textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Late spring to early summer warmth will prevail into next week, with highs climbing well above mid-March normals.

* Longer range outlooks strongly favor dry and warm conditions going through at least the third week of March.

DISCUSSION

Warmer temperatures are here to stay for at least the next 10 days. Record high temperatures (at KRNO) will be the biggest aspect of the weather as a strong upper level ridge moves over the southwest US on Sunday. The ridge will remain in place through pretty much all of next week. Given the strength and duration of this ridge, expect persistent large-scale subsidence leading to compressed and warming air, which will give us our record high temperatures.

So, about those records...let's dive into it. To sum it up first, Monday through Friday of next week will be the most likely timeframe to break previous records at the Reno Airport. I won't get into the percentages and details of each daily record, but average record highs next week are in the upper 70's and our forecast is calling for highs from 80-85 here in Reno. We have lesser chances to break records tomorrow and Sunday (about 60-70%), while Saturday will be a touch cooler, lowering our chances of breaking that record.

But records aside, high and low temperatures will feel remarkably warmer over the next 7-10 days. Morning low temperatures will get into the mid-upper 40's for lower valleys and get up to upper 30's in the Sierra. it'll definitely feel like early-mid June with the temperatures that we're able to have. Make sure to stay hydrated, protect yourself from the sun of you're outside for a long time, and be cautious around rivers as they'll be flowing fast and cold next week.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through the upcoming week. Winds will be light today, then afternoon west breezes with gusts 15-20 kt return Thurs-Fri. Winds may then edge upward a bit for Saturday with W-NW gusts around 20 kt.

For next week, prepare for rising density altitudes as afternoon highs exceed 80 degrees at western NV terminals starting Monday.

-MJD/Justin

HYDROLOGY

An early snowmelt triggered by a major warm up will increase streamflows across the region. Melting will accelerate next week as temperatures reach record highs. While rivers will run fast and cold, they are expected to remain well below flood levels. However, this premature runoff will greatly reduce late-spring to early-summer water supply conditions.

-Johnston

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.