textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain and high elevation snow chances expected through Monday morning with low chances (10%) for isolated thunderstorms.

* Following a precipitation pause on Tuesday, a mid-week system will bring back light rain and snow chances areawide.

* Gusty to strong winds expected mid-week for areas south of US-50 at this time.

DISCUSSION

Rain, thunder, and snow, oh my! It is giving spring out there with the way things are fluctuating; are we sure we want it to be spring already? We are currently experiencing rain showers here in Reno, with sites around the Tahoe Basin picking up on a couple stray lightning strikes. Meanwhile, upper elevations, most notably Mt. Rose, are seeing snow. For details on Sierra snow levels, please see the Avalanche discussion below.

Showers will linger through the rest of the afternoon for the Sierra, and through the evening hours for the Basin and Range, as this system pushes east. Renewed shower chances arrive early Monday morning, mainly for Mono and N Washoe county along the OR border (30-60%). However, most of those showers will exit the region by mid-morning, allowing for a brief drying trend through late Tuesday night areawide.

Said drying trend will be shortlived, though, as another trough drops in early Wednesday morning, bringing widespread shower chances north of US-50. Accumulations are expected to be light with snow levels above 6000'. For our friends south of US-50, the main concern Wednesday through Thursday will be gusty to strong winds, especially along wind-prone areas near Walker Lake and along US-395 in Mono county. As of now, there is a 40-50% chance wind gusts will exceed 40 mph Wednesday for said wind-prone locations.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions mostly expected today for all terminals. The only exception will be brief periods of MVFR conditions for terminals experiencing -SHRA (most likely KTRK/KTVL/KRNO). A handful of lightning strikes have been recorded around the Sierra, which is introducing -TSRA/VCTS to KTRK/KTVL. Chances for lightning only decrease, though, as the rest of the day progresses.

FL100 winds increase to 30-50 kts today, which will allow for LLWS for Sierra terminals through much of the forecast period.

-Giralte

AVALANCHE

Light rain and snow showers with isolated thunder will impact all avalanche center terrain through Monday morning.

* Snow levels and amounts: Snow levels have dropped to about 8500' in the Tahoe Basin this afternoon, based on recent cameras. Levels will drop to 6500-8000' by midnight tonight (Tahoe on the lower range, Mono on the higher range). Snow levels bottom out at 5000-6500' around sunrise Monday before increasing to 6500-7500' (locally higher part of that range for southern Mono county) by mid afternoon. Snow amounts will be light through the remainder of today and predominantly along the highest peaks, with a trace to 0.5 inches in the Tahoe Basin and 1-2.5 inches for central Mono county (up 1.5" for ESAC terrain).

* SLR and SWE: SLRs 5-6:1, increasing to 8-11:1 by Monday morning. SWE will be highest for SAC and BAC terrain with up to 0.4" through Monday morning, with locally lower as you progress southward into ESAC terrain (up to 0.2").

* Wind gusts: Southwest ridgetop wind gusts up to 50 mph possible by this afternoon.

* Lightning: Thunderstorm chances generally <10%, peaking at 15% along the crest in the Tahoe Basin this afternoon.

-Giralte

HYDROLOGY

All rivers and streams in the area have crested last week, but flows remain elevated and may respond quickly to additional snowmelt with mild temperatures and isolated shower chances to start the week, especially smaller creeks and steams.

Use extra caution near rivers and creeks. Prolonged high flows may lead to unstable banks and erosion.

No new flooding is forecast, check for river forecasts and observations at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

-TB/078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.