textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and cool conditions continue across the region through Thursday, with a gradual cooling trend beginning Friday.

* Isolated snow showers late Thursday along the Sierra, lingering through Friday.

* Cooler and showery conditions this weekend with snow levels above 6500 feet.

DISCUSSION

Expect cool and dry conditions with light winds through Thursday before two upper level systems start to impact the area. Latest satellite imagery shows a low cycling out in the Pacific, northeast of Hawaii. This low will move inland as the week progresses, and is expected to interact with an upper-level trough, currently over British Columbia, this weekend.

Shower chances (15-30%) late Thursday through Friday will be confined to the Sierra crest, and can mostly be attributed to the trough from BC. Snow levels will vary, dropping as low as 6000-6500' late Thursday night. However, snow levels will mostly range between 6750-7750' with the highest snow levels in Mono county. New snowfall totals will amount to 2" or less.

Precip chances become widespread by Saturday afternoon, ranging from 30-65% as the low in the Pacific approaches the southern coast of California. This system will provide the majority of the moisture this weekend while the trough to our north will help bring colder temperatures. As such, snow levels will range from 6500' in and around the Tahoe Basin to 7500' in southern Mono county. Since these two aforementioned systems will be interacting, there is still plenty of uncertainty in both the liquid and snowfall totals this weekend. Snowfall totals will be confined to the Sierra and range anywhere from 0-7" (25th vs 75th percentile) by early Monday. As for liquid, anywhere from 0-0.75" by Monday morning. That being said, there's a 20-50% chance for wetting rain across W NV by Monday morning.

Temperatures will be quite cool this weekend, with highs dropping into the mid 50s for Western Nevada and mid to upper 40s for Sierra communities around the Tahoe Basin. Overnight lows plunge below freezing for Sunday and Monday areawide.

Ensembles hint at upper level ridging for Monday through at least Wednesday, with long-range guidance bringing another period of active weather for next weekend.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions through at least Thursday with light winds. Gusts upwards of 40 kts along the Sierra crest may produce localized areas of LLWS this afternoon.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.