textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A weak low-pressure system brings isolated light shower chances into Monday afternoon.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist through late week, with daily record highs possible throughout the area.

* A cooling trend with low precipitation chances arrive this weekend, but confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper low pressure moves through the area today. This will bring a low 10-20% chance for showers and a lower <10% chance for thunderstorms. Main areas to watch out for precipitation today are the eastern Sierra stretching from Lassen County south through the Tahoe Basin and into Mono County. There is also a low 15% chance for precipitation this afternoon along the Sierra Front, including the greater Reno area. Because we have a dry airmass in place, any liquid amounts will be low, generally less than 0.10". The most any storms may do today is produce gusty winds up to 35 mph and virga. Even with the upper low moving through the region, our temperatures today will remain upwards of 10 degrees above average for the first week of October. After this low moves out of the region, a large-scale ridge will be positioned over the western U.S. through at least Friday. Temperatures the remainder of the week will remain 10-15 degrees above average. We are looking at mostly mid to upper 80s in western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower elevations of Mono County. For the eastern Sierra, temperatures this week will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s for Sierra communities with mid 50s to mid 60s in higher elevations. We still have a 90% for setting a new daily record high temperature in Reno on Wednesday (see climate section below).

As we head into the weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in the ensembles and between the ensembles in the evolution of the pattern. Solutions range from a deeper low pressure over the area to a weak ridge. Blended guidance has a cooldown Saturday and Sunday. But, the range of temperatures between the 25th to 75th percentile is 15 degrees. There is even lower certainty for any precipitation, so for now we'll keep 10-20% chances across the area. -McKellar

AVIATION

* A weak system moving through the region today will introduce a 20% chance for showers between 18Z to 00Z at KTRK, KTVL, KRNO, KCXP, and KMEV. This may drop ceilings to local IFR/MVFR in showers and mountain obscurations.

* Outside areas of precipitation, we have mostly VFR conditions today with some smoke and haze lingering across the area, limiting slantwise visibility for some area terminals (such as KMMH, KHTH).

* Lighter winds today with gusts as high as 10-15kts this afternoon. -McKellar

CLIMATE

Near record high temperatures and near record warmest low temperatures are forecast at both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL) for the beginning of this week.

Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/4 Hi: 89F, Tied 89F (1987) Hi: 77, Old: 82F (1988) 10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1991) 10/6 88F (1980,1991,1996,2004) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014)

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Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/4 Low: 52F, Old: 54F (2024) 45F (2015) 10/5 52F (1947,1999,2024) 39F (2024) 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (2021,2024) 43F (2021)

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.