textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with morning inversions prevails through Thursday with warmer than normal daytime temperatures.

* Strong winds Friday with increasing chances for valley rain and mountain snow over 7500 ft.

* Mostly dry Saturday with a second, colder system bringing impacts to the area as early as Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Dry weather with mild temperatures is the name of the game through at least Thursday of this week. Afternoon highs will tap out at the upper 60s to low 70s for valleys in NE CA, W NV, and Mono county. Sierra community counterparts will see highs in the low to mid 60s. Morning lows continue to be chilly, with many sites below or near freezing. Stagnant air due to light winds will allow for morning valley inversions and poor ventilation.

A pattern change is queued up for Friday and beyond as a trough out in the Pacific marches closer to the coast. The biggest change since last night's forecast is increasing model agreement in a weather system Friday. Winds will be strong, with a possible downslope signal for locations along the Sierra Front; there is a 70% chance gusts will exceed 45 mph. Best chances (50-80%) for precip occur after sunset Friday, with spillover into W NV. Snow levels currently hover between 7500-8000' from the Tahoe Basin down to Mono county. However, snow levels could fall as low as 6500-7000' late Friday night, bringing higher chances for roadway accumulations. Current snowfall totals range from zero inches (25th percentile) to over 20 inches with the 75th percentile. That being said, most cases show at least a 50% chance of over 6 inches of snow by Saturday afternoon for Sierra locations over 7500'.

Showers may linger along the Sierra through Saturday afternoon, though the remainder of the area looks dry with a less than 20% chance of precip along the Sierra Front. Another system is poised to impact the area Sunday through Monday, with lower snow levels bringing light accumulations to foothills. However, there is still plenty of model uncertainty, which will impact snowfall totals. Lowest snow levels could be below valley floors, with the highest above 7500' (10th vs 90th percentile). Winds will not be as strong as Friday, with gusts of 15-25 mph.

Other than the varying rain and snow totals for this weekend, expect much cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs drop into the low to mid 50s for valleys and low to mid 40s for Sierra communities. Morning lows drop below freezing areawide by Monday morning. Consider digging out some of those winter coats and gloves if you haven't already.

-Giralte

AVIATION

* KRNO: VFR conditions with gusts up to 10-15 kts each afternoon Thursday, otherwise light winds. Valley inversions continue each morning into Thursday, reducing slantwise visibilities.

* Elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals with light winds. Ridgetop winds are lighter today for all eastern Sierra terminals.

* Confidence is increasing for the potential of rain, higher elevations snow, and stronger winds on Friday and Saturday, impacting all eastern Sierra and western Nevada terminals.

-McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.