textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty winds and near critical fire weather conditions continue through the afternoon. * Low chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon along and south of Interstate 80.

* Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances become more widespread Friday, along with much cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Persistent eastern Pacific troughing will encourage another dry and breezy afternoon today for areas north of the I-80 corridor. W/SW gusts of 30-35 mph (40-45 mph for wind prone locales) will be common between 12 PM and 8 PM PDT, renewing elevated fire concerns from the OR border south along the Sierra Front this afternoon (more details in the Fire Weather section below). Lakes may also be a bit more choppy in the afternoon. Increasing moisture aloft and daytime heating will support a 20-40% chance of light rain showers through the evening along and south of I-80. Thunderstorm chances today are only 10-15% and confined to Mono, Mineral, Lyon, and Churchill counties, but any storm that does develop will be capable of strong outflow gusts (45+ mph), brief heavy rain, and occasional lightning.

Light rain showers may linger overnight tonight (10-20% probability), then chances increase to 50-80% from the Sierra crest far western Nevada. Abundant cloud cover and limited instability makes thunderstorm potential a bit more uncertain, but blended guidance shows a 20-30% chance of storms from Alpine-Mono County into Lyon, Mineral, Churchill counties Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances are 15% or less. Faster storm motions suggest that new lightning fires will be more of a concern compared to flooding, but flash flooding will still be possible (at least a 5% chance) where storms train -- especially if they do so over vulnerable burn scars and/or steep terrain. Friday will also be noticeably cooler as temperatures fall ~10 degrees from today.

A drying trend will reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage/chances on Saturday with dry weather favored Sunday and Monday. Chances begin to increase after Monday, but confidence is low. Afternoon winds may also become a tad stronger than our typical zephyr breeze Monday and Tuesday, which would pose fire weather concerns once again next week. Otherwise, next week's temperatures are leaning towards being mild and cooler than normal.

-Salas

AVIATION

TAF sites look to see mostly VFR conditions today and tonight. Area winds will gust up to around 20-25 kts between 27/20Z-28/04Z, with portions closer to the OR border seeing gusts up to around 30 kts.

Forecast guidance shows around a 10-40% chance for showers between 27/20Z-28/06Z in W NV and the Sierra, with the higher end chances in Mono County/KMMH. In addition, there is a 10% chance for an isolated thunderstorm at KMMH. On Friday, a cooler weather system moves through the region, bringing increased cloud cover and a more widespread showers (50-75% chance) and thunderstorms. -078/Salas

FIRE WEATHER

A 2-5 hour overlap of W/SW gusts of 30-35 mph (40-45 mph on exposed ridges) and RH reductions to 10-15% will unfold this afternoon across far NE California and NW Nevada -- including the S-1 Vya, S- 3, and Hawk fires. Nighttime recoveries will be poor to moderate in this area as RH struggles to exceed 40%, extending burn periods into the overnight hours.

Increasing moisture and abundant cloud cover arrives on Friday, introducing much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and moderate to high chances (50-80%) of rain showers to much of the region. A warmer and drier pattern returns Saturday into early next week with increased breezes possible Monday and Tuesday. -Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.