textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Storm exiting tonight with clearing skies. Light rain/snow or pellet showers possible through early evening.

* Cold morning Thursday followed by seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday afternoons and mostly dry conditions except a few showers over the mountains Friday.

* Showers becoming more likely Saturday and Sunday, with potential for wetting rains and mountain snowfall.

DISCUSSION

* Storm exiting the region with just residual light rain or snow showers through early evening. Weak instability could yield pellet showers - seeing a short anvil or two out the window here. Significant travel impacts are not expected. Skies will clear tonight, leading to widespread freezing temperatures with hard freezes likely (80% odds) in rural valleys of W Nevada. With recent moisture, areas of fog are likely (70% odds) in normally prone valleys like near Truckee and the Sierra Valley.

* Temps warm back up to near or just above normal Thursday and Friday afternoons. A few showers could bubble up over the Sierra Friday afternoon with low-end instability present under weak troughing.

* Saturday into Sunday is where things get a little more interesting with more appreciable troughing dropping into the region. Guidance shows increasing chances for showers and t-storms/pellet showers Saturday afternoon/night into Sunday. Highest chances over the mountains but if we end up with organized bands of showers, then wetting rains possible into W Nevada. This could also be a sneaky snowfall for areas above 6,500-7,000' which would impact travel over Sierra passes Sat night into Sunday morning when temps are coldest. Typically this time of year snowfall impacts are limited to the nighttime hours, unless snowfall rates are particularly high.

* Cold and breezy day Sunday followed by gradually increasing temperatures as the week goes on next week. Guidance indicates continued risk for daily rain/snow showers at least into Monday and Tuesday, as the trough pattern over the west never totally fades away. I'd say overall forecast confidence for next week is below normal with multiple waves/troughs in the models.

-Chris

AVIATION

* Isolated MVFR rain/snow or pellet showers through early evening, mainly over the mountains near MMH/TVL/TRK (30-40% odds). A few in the vicinity of RNO/CXP/MEV too (10-20% odds). Gusty W/NW winds through early evening as well, with gusts 20-25 knots possible near showers.

* Clearing skies tonight with winds subsiding. Fog likely Thursday morning (70% odds) at TRK and nearby valleys that had recent rain/snowfall.

* VFR conditions Thursday with generally light N/NE winds.

-Chris

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.