textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A Red Flag Warning is in effect Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for northeast California, far northwest Nevada, and the Sierra Front. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Sunday.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Mineral and Churchill counties today, then Mineral and Mono counties Friday. Gusty outflows and lightning are the main threats.

* Friday will be the hottest day. Temperatures dip a few degrees this weekend before rebounding Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY:

* Thunderstorms are ongoing over central and eastern Nevada, where the deeper moisture remains. Additional storms are possible through this evening, with 15-25% chances east of Fallon and across Mineral County. Chances Friday decrease to 10-20% across Mineral and Mono counties, with better coverage farther east. High cloud bases and a dry lower atmosphere will favor gusty, erratic outflows and lightning over widespread wetting rain. Storm chances fall below 10% this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT FRIDAY-SUNDAY:

* An eastern Pacific trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will strengthen southwest flow through Sunday. Chances of gusts above 30 mph Friday are 75% at Reno and 40-45% around Carson City, Susanville, and Mammoth. Probabilities increase Saturday to 55-80% from Lovelock and Carson City to Reno and Mono County. Reno, Carson City, and Mammoth retain 65-90% probabilities Sunday.

* Minimum humidity of 5-15% will combine with gusty winds to produce critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1 PM Friday through 9 PM Saturday, followed by a Fire Weather Watch Sunday.

* Friday highs will be near 100 at Reno and 100-103 at Fallon, Hawthorne, and Lovelock. Chances of reaching 100 are 70% at Reno and 90-95% elsewhere across western Nevada. Sierra valley highs will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Chances of reaching 90 are 40% at Bridgeport, 50% at Sierraville, and greater than 95% at Markleeville, but 5% or less around Truckee, Tahoe, and Mammoth. Moderate HeatRisk will be widespread, with localized Major HeatRisk across the Basin and Range. Temperatures ease 3-5 degrees Saturday through Monday.

HOT AND DRY NEXT WEEK:

* The EPS, GEFS, and CMCE ensemble means agree on a broad trough near the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest, with only small differences in how far south it extends. Forecast heights are nearly identical across eastern California and western Nevada.

* Monday remains breezy before winds return closer to typical zephyr speeds. Temperatures climb Tuesday, with Thursday highs again near 100 at Reno and 100-103 at Fallon, Hawthorne, and Lovelock. Chances of reaching 100 are 60% at Reno and 70-80% elsewhere. Meaningful precipitation remains unlikely through Thursday.

-Johnston

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. West- southwest winds will gust 20-25 kt through this evening, ease overnight, then return Friday afternoon. Chances for Friday gusts exceeding 25 kt are 55% at KCXP/KMMH, 35% at KTVL, 25% at KMEV, and 20% at KTRK. Thunderstorm chances will be greatest east of KNFL/KHTH this afternoon and evening. On Friday, chances increase to 15-20% for KMMH and KHTH. Fog is unlikely at KTRK Friday morning. Increased density altitude concerns continue each afternoon.

* For RNO: VFR conditions will prevail. West-northwest gusts near 25 kt are expected late this afternoon and evening, followed by light overnight winds. Gusty west winds return Friday afternoon, with an 80% chance of gusts exceeding 25 kt. Thunderstorm chances at KRNO remain below 10%.

-Johnston

FIRE WEATHER

* A drying and warming trend begins today, although a 15-25% chance of storms in Mono and Mineral counties continues through Friday, with chances in Churchill County mainly today. Friday and Saturday will be the two main days of concern this weekend. Increased winds gusting to 35 mph and afternoon minimum RHs ranging from 5-15% will overlap each afternoon across portions of northeast California and western Nevada, yielding 3-9 hours of critical fire weather conditions. For this reason, and with the ongoing Biscar Fire nearby, we have issued a Red Flag Warning for these areas from 1 PM Friday through 9 PM Saturday. We're also looking at Sunday to see if the increased winds linger and critical fire weather conditions persist for a third day. For the time being, we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon and will monitor as time gets closer.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420- 458.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening NVZ420-458.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday CAZ270- 278.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening CAZ270-278.