textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Very warm and dry weather conditions through the weekend with low chances of showers and isolated storms in the afternoons for Mono county.

* Hotter conditions are expected next week, resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk by mid next week.

DISCUSSION

A single thunderstorm developed south of Mono Lake today before dissipating as it traversed to the southeast. Expect daily thunderstorm chances (15%) for Mono county this weekend as CAPE values range from 300-400 J/kg. DCAPE values are also over 1400 J/kg, meaning outflow gusts could range from 45-55 mph. This additional synoptic forcing is owed to a low pressure system cycling over the San Francisco Bay Area.

The other main story is the incoming heat. Afternoon weekend highs will be in the mid 90s for valleys and mid 80s for Sierra communities. As high pressure builds over British Columbia through next week, we heat up further. There is a 40% chance for Reno to hit 100F next Tuesday, with a 15% chance South Lake Tahoe will reach 90F or above. As such, Moderate HeatRisk extends into the Tahoe Basin, with areas of Major HeatRisk in the lower valleys east of US-385. With summer heat settling in nicely, get back into the routine of drinking plenty of water and reapplying sunscreen.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the weekend, with the only exception of KMMH where brief MVFR conditions may arise in the wake of any shower or thunderstorm development. Odds are 15% or less, though showers that develop will be capable of gusty and erratic winds with brief heavy rainfall.

Warming continues through mid next week, which may produce density altitude impacts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.