textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this afternoon with cool temperatures prevailing.

* Lingering shower and T-storm chances will continue across the eastern Sierra Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

* Expect drier weather with temperatures warming to around 10 degrees above average by the weekend. Shower chances may return for the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Scattered showers have redeveloped this afternoon as daytime heating increases instability. The highest chances (40-60%) will remain along the eastern Sierra, with a 10-15% chance of isolated thunderstorms. Farther east of US-95 in west-central Nevada, including southern Mono County, shower chances drop to 20-40%, though thunderstorm potential increases slightly to 15-20%. Elsewhere, only isolated showers are expected (10-20%).

Showers may bring brief light to moderate rain, with occasional pellet showers. In the Sierra, snow levels will remain near 7,000 feet with scattered light snow, though the likelihood of more than an inch of accumulation on passes is generally low (under 15-20%). Shower activity decreases Tuesday, with 35-45% chances lingering along the eastern Sierra (15-20% thunderstorm risk), before tapering to 10-15% for showers and less than 5% for storms by Wednesday. After that, dry conditions will prevail through the beginning of the weekend.

Well remain seasonably cool today with highs near 60 degrees across western Nevada and near 50 degrees for Sierra communities. A warming trend will then commerce through the weekend as highs increase into the mid and upper 60s for W.Nevada valleys before returning to the 70 degree mark on Wednesday with low 60s for Sierra valleys. Warming continues through the weekend with Friday and Saturday targeting a return to the 80 degree mark for W.Nevada valleys and near 70 for Sierra valleys.

Generally light northerly breezes will persist through the week, with southwest winds increasing by Saturday as a closed low approaches the West Coast. Showers may begin late Saturday in far northeast California, then expand into the Sierra and western Nevada with shower and isolated thunder chances potentially extending into early next week. Confidence remains low regarding the systems timing and track, which is typical for slow-moving spring cut-off lows. Fuentes

AVIATION

Afternoon showers with 10-15% chance of isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon before activity diminishes by 03-04z this evening. Brief MVFR conditions in -SHRA for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH and short periods of terrain obscuration for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV.

For Tuesday, isolated showers again bring similar brief MVFR potential for the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals, but western NV should remain dry with VFR conditions prevailing. Overall winds will be lighter today and Tuesday with gusts 20 kt or less, but brief gusts to 30 kt could occur near shower activity.

Decreasing clover overnight may yield higher chances (50-70%) for FZFG at KTRK with LIFR conditions early Tuesday mainly between 08-15Z, especially if precip occurs at the airport this afternoon. Fuentes/MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.