textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonable heat with dry conditions today outside of a 10-15% chance of isolated showers along the E.Sierra and NE CA.

* A passing trough will increase clouds and provide chances for morning showers with isolated T-storms Sunday afternoon. A few storms may produce isolated dry lightning/gusty outflow winds.

* Hotter temperatures and increasing HeatRisk possible mid-week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

High temperatures this afternoon will reach their warmest values of the week with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s across much of W.Nevada and portions of NE California. Sierra valleys will generally see low to mid 80s this afternoon.

Expect cumulus build-ups again this afternoon across elevated terrain areas which may yield enough instablilty to pop a few isolated showers along the E.Sierra and over portions of Lassen County this afternoon (15% chance with a 5% chance of an isolated thunderstorm).

Shower and storm chances increase on Sunday as a shortwave trough tracks across the N.Sierra and NW Nevada. Forcing from this wave will result in increasing clouds on Sunday with bands of light morning showers with a 10-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms extending from the E.Sierra from Mono County/Tahoe Basin into the Sierra Front and far NE California/NW Nevada near the Oregon border. These storms look to elevated and faster moving so isolated dry lightning strikes are possible along gusty outflow winds around 40-50 mph near any storm activity.

In addition, this shortwave trough may provide a bump to our late afternoon and early evening winds on Sunday roughly northward of Susanville and Pyramid Lake. This could yield in localized areas of critical fire weather conditions due dry conditions combined with wind gusts of 25-35 mph across portions of E.Lassen, N.Washoe, and Pershing counties late Sunday afternoon/evening.

This shortwave will also push temperatures down around 5 degrees for Sunday and Monday before a heating trend returns for the remainder of the week. Strengthening high pressure across the SW will allow highs to return to the upper 90s by Tuesday and near triple digits by next weekend across W.Nevada with Sierra valleys generally warming to the mid and upper 80s. Expect areas of moderate to major heat risk for hotter W.Nevada valleys. Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail today with a 10-15% chance of showers near KTRK-KTVL-KMEV and around a 5% chance of an isolated T-Storm. An upper level disturbance will increase cloud cover on Sunday and provide increased chances of a light band of showers in the morning with 10-20% odds of an isolated thunderstorm across Tahoe and Sierra Front terminals Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect light morning winds to become breezy each afternoon with typical west gusts of 20-25 kts. Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

A shortwave trough will track across the E.Sierra on Sunday and could trigger isolated areas of elevated and fast moving thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing isolated cloud-to-ground dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds.

Areas across the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front could see areas of banded light showers by Sunday with a 10-15% chance of afternoon thunderstorms. However, the best potential for dry strikes are expected across portions of E.Lassen County into the Surprise Valley, and far N.Washoe county near the Oregon border (15-20% chance). A few of these storms could be better organized with isolated stronger cells which could be capable of producing hail and strong outflow winds up to 50 mph. Any new ignitions could rapidly spread with these gusty outflow winds.

In addition, this passing wave could produce localized critical conditions due to a wind increase late Sunday afternoon and evening across NE California/NW Nevada, mainly across Fire Weather Zones 278 and 458. Wind gusts could reach 25-35 mph with minimum RH dipping to 10-15%. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.