textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Mild temperatures with low shower and thunderstorm chances expected this week.
* Periods of increased breezes may pose minor fire and recreation impacts in the afternoons.
* A warming trend is favored for the holiday weekend with potential for thunderstorms in the Sierra.
DISCUSSION
Transient low pressure to the west will maintain mild temperatures today with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s. A relatively more favorable overlap of instability and moisture will support a low probability of showers and isolated storms from Alpine-Mono counties into S.Lyon-Mineral counties this afternoon. A stray afternoon shower may also develop near the Tahoe Basin, but confidence is low.
A persistent troughing pattern remains in place throughout the week, allowing temperatures to slowly warm to late June standards leading up to the holiday weekend. While most areas will stay dry this week, each afternoon will feature low chances (10% or less) of an isolated shower or a stray thunderstorm. Winds will become breezy each afternoon this week -- especially Tuesday and Thursday -- but winds aren't expected to be stronger than our typical zephyr breeze. Still, breezy conditions may pose minor impacts to fire and recreation at times.
The Independence Day weekend is trending towards being a hot one as temperatures sharply warm-up in response to building high pressure. Daytime highs are slated to breach the 80s for Sierra communities and 90s across NE CA/W NV valleys over the weekend. While there is no strong signal for widespread thunderstorm activity this weekend, warming surface temperatures tend to support at least some potential for thunderstorms across the higher Sierra terrain. If you have outdoor plans to celebrate the holiday, be sure to frequently check the latest forecast.
-Salas
AVIATION
VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes prevail today with a low 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms near KMMH between 20Z and 06Z. Expect similar conditions Tuesday, except with lower shower/storm chances and a slight uptick in afternoon breezes.
-Salas
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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