textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty to strong winds today will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Remain fire aware.

* Winds today will also result in dangerous boating conditions, areas of blowing dust, outdoor recreation impacts, and cross winds for high profile vehicles. * Much cooler weather continues into Monday with shower and thunderstorm chances north of Highway 50.

DISCUSSION

Peak wind gusts so far today range from 35-40 mph across much of the area. Expect similar wind speeds to continue through this evening, with localized gusts up to 45 mph (50+ mph in wind prone locations along US-395 from Herlong Junction to Coleville/Walker). These winds will result in critical fire weather conditions, see the Fire Weather discussion below for more details, as well as hazardous boating conditions on lakes. Difficult travel for high profile vehicles and reduced visibilities from blowing dust are also in the cards today.

Showers and thunderstorms currently persist in north central NV as of this writing. As daytime heating increases, we can expect additional chances for showers and a stray lightning strike. The main area of concern will be north of I-80 in Pershing county as well as in NE CA and northern Washoe county along the OR border.

A potent cold front will track southward today, impacting our area after 5 PM; resulting in a wind switch to out of the north/northeast. We are also expecting additional shower chances late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hi-res models show a general band of showers developing along a southwest to northeast line from the central valley around Oroville up to just north of Pyramid Lake. This line will progress southeastward, encompassing Truckee/Donner up through Fernley and possibly Lovelock. As the line interacts with the terrain around the Tahoe Basin, it'll be sheared off, meaning our friends south of Spooner Summit will likely miss out on any precipitation.

What of the precipitation type? The preceding cold front will help drop temperatures into the upper 30s. As such, snow levels drop to about 7500 ft, which will align with the shower chances. Snow flurries aren't out of the question for the higher peaks of the Sierra in the Tahoe Basin, though lower elevations can expect rain. Any accumulations of either the liquid or frozen type will be little to none.

Sunday morning will be quite cold, with a 60% chance for Sierra communities (Truckee, South Lake Tahoe, Bridgeport, etc.) to drop to near or below freezing. Monday will be another cold morning, though chances for similar temperatures drop to 30-40%. Afternoon highs will be much cooler for the next week, only increasing to the mid 80s and low 70s for valleys and higher elevations, respectively, by Wednesday. The EC shows another low dropping down Monday, with partial agreement from the GFS. This will help keep temps down, and increase chances for showers. However, confidence remains low on this feature so check back here for more details.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for all terminals through this evening though mountain wave turbulence will impact all terminals today. Peak surface gusts of 25-45 kts at terminals today, with mountain top winds of 50-70 kts. LLWS likely after 21z today for KRNO/KCXP/KTRK/KTVL with passage of the cold front. Showers along and north of a line from KTVL-KNFL may lower ceilings to MVFR from 9-14z.

Northerly winds of 20-30 kts expected for Sunday with VFR conditions for all terminals.

-Giralte/Brong

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag conditions continue for western NV today with wind gusts of 30-50 mph, dry fuels, and lower RH values. Avoid activities that may cause a spark such as target shooting, driving motorized vehicles over dry grasses and vegetation, dragging trailer chains, and lighting fireworks.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany the cold front today, but will mainly persist north of I-80 before a line of showers drops south early Sunday morning. Outside of Lassen and northern Washoe counties, wetting rains will be limited or non- existent.

The Tahoe Basin and eastern Sierra in Mono County will have winds of 30-50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph over ridges today. While fuels for these regions have not been reported to be critically dry, fire may quickly spread in pockets of dry fuels when coupled with strong winds.

Cooler temperatures and lighter winds arrive Sunday and Monday.

-Giralte/Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420.

Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>004.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073.