textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record high temperatures will produce moderate HeatRisk across lower valleys today.

* Gusty winds and low shower chances are anticipated today and Wednesday. Strong outflow winds are possible this afternoon.

* Dry weather with above average temperatures expected later this week followed by some cooling for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows a upper ridge over the western CONUS with a Pacific closed low trailing behind it. Going through the day, model guidance projects the ridge getting pushed eastward with the low moving towards the OR/WA coast. This pattern aloft will allow for one last day of temperatures around 15-20 degrees above May normals. NE CA and W NV valleys have daytime highs forecast in the upper 80s to middle 90s range while Sierra communities expect to range between the middle 70s and lower 80s. These temperatures will bring another day of minor to moderate HeatRisk to the area, so please remember to stay hydrated and limit exposure to the sun during the warmest parts of the day, especially if you have outdoor plans and are sensitive to heat. Rivers are still running cold and fast, so please exercise caution around them as entering into them to cool off can become dangerous quickly.

Winds also look to be the concern today in two different ways. Within NE CA and northern Washoe County, southwest winds with gusts up to around 35-45 mph are forecast in the afternoon due to the low approaching the NW CONUS. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for lakes in those areas today, so please refer to this product for more details. Other portions of the CWA will have gusts generally between 25-35 mph this afternoon. Please also keep these winds in mind if you have travel or outdoor recreation plans. The second way winds could be a concern in the region involves possible strong outflow winds (erratic gusts of 40+ mph) as CAM guidance continues to show potential isolated showers and thunderstorms (<15% chance) later today. The window looks to open around 4 PM this afternoon with showers developing in Mono and Mineral Counties with coverage spreading into of the region going into the evening. As these high-based showers and storms will have a large dry layer underneath them, not much precipitation is expected to reach the ground. However, the environment shows that strong outflow gusts may occur from them which can blow dust causing reduced visibilities.

For Wednesday, forecast guidance depicts the upper low making its way into WA/OR and opening into a trough. This will cause a cold front passage in the region through the day allowing for milder temperatures and increased winds. The forecast has valley areas with daytime highs cooling down to between the mid-70s and mid-80s with Sierra communities in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Afternoon winds will gust up to around 30-40 mph areawide (up to around 60 mph in the Sierra ridges) out of the west. This will cause wind impacts to travel and recreation for more portions of the region, including choppy lake waters and reduced visibility from blowing dust near desert areas and sinks. While most of the region will stay dry, low chances (<10%) for afternoon showers are seen in areas near the OR border as well in the Eastern Sierra.

Dry conditions will prevail beginning Thursday and going through the weekend. High temperatures expect to rebound a bit on Friday with a brief pause in the cooldown. However, the cooldown resumes over the weekend with area high temperatures forecast in the 60s and 70s. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites today and tonight. South to southwest winds will gust up to around 25-30 kts within the region this afternoon between 12/18Z-13/03Z. There is a low chance (<15%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms within the region this afternoon and evening that could produce strong, erratic outflow gusts. VFR conditions are forecast again on Wednesday with westerly afternoon winds gusting up to around 35 kts possible. -078

CLIMATE

Both climate sites set new record high temperatures yesterday for the May 11th date. The Reno-Tahoe International Airport recorded a high of 92F, breaking the old record of 90F set in 2001 and 2013. South Lake Tahoe, CA recorded a high of 80F, breaking the old record of 78F set in 2013.

Current record high temperature for May 12th at Reno, NV that has potential to be broken or tied today:

89F, set in 1959 and 2013.

Current record high temperature for May 12th at South Lake Tahoe, CA that has potential to be broken or tied today:

79F, set in 1988 and 1996.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ071.