textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of increased breezes will pose minor impacts to aviation and recreation through this evening.

* Dry weather prevails through most of the week with warmer than normal daytime temperatures.

* A wetter and windier pattern potentially returns this weekend. The chances for gusty winds and precipitation increase as early as Friday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

High clouds persist over the region through this afternoon and evening. Skies will slowly clear overnight as the upper level shortwave trough moves east and it's replaced by an upper level ridge. Winds will pick up this afternoon as the the trough axis and associated dry cold front moves through the region. Already seeing gusts to 35-45 mph in the Sierra crest. Expect gusts of 15-25 mph in northeast California and north Washoe county, and 10-20 mph for the rest of the area.

A high amplitude ridge develops tomorrow bringing warm and dry air towards us. Enjoy warm fall temperatures through the work week, as afternoon highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above average through Thursday. Highs will be in the mid-upper 60s for valleys across western NV, NE CA and Chalfant, and upper 50s to low 60s Sierra communities. Mornings will still be chilly in the 30s to low 40s valleys, and mid 20s to low 30s in the Sierra.

Starting on Friday through early next week, the deterministic and ensemble models continue to struggle with the forecast. The main problem has been solving when the cut-off low splits from the upper trough in the Eastern Pacific. Regardless, the low is still forecast to keep a southerly track into SoCal and subsequently Arizona. The slower upper trough to our north will be the main concern for us as this will be the one bringing colder temperatures, valley rain, mountain snow and gusty winds.

What are we certain of? Colder temperatures and gusty winds starting on Friday through the weekend. There is a 30-60% chance of gusts greater than 35 mph. So, yes there will be gusty winds. What are we uncertain of? Onset and ending of the precipitation, snow levels and amounts of rain/snow. Precipitation potentially starts over the western portions of the region with a 10-40% chance on Friday afternoon, increasing on Friday night with a break on Saturday, and restarting again Saturday night through Monday. Snow levels are ranging from 6500 to 7500 feet, this will directly affect snow amounts between those elevations. Lastly, how much precipitation we will get. The ensembles continue to have a wide spread of amounts of rain and snow to make any clear determination 5 to 7 days out. Overall, prepare for a winter storm event this weekend into early next week. The details will become clear over the next few days.

-HC

AVIATION

* KRNO: VFR conditions with gusts up to 15 kts this afternoon, otherwise light winds. Valley inversions continue each morning, reducing slantwise visibilities.

* Elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals with light winds. Ridgetop gusts of 30-40 kts may bring turbulence and LLWS, primarily north of Lake Tahoe through 00Z this afternoon.

-Giralte/HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.