textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain and high elevation snow chances continue into this afternoon with low chances for isolated thunderstorms.

* Following a precipitation pause Tuesday, a mid-week cold front will bring back light rain and snow chances areawide and gusty to strong winds to areas south of US-50.

* Dry conditions and near-average temperatures are forecast toward the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP upper air analysis shows low pressure over N CA this morning giving the CWA a southwesterly flow aloft. Forecast guidance shows the low traveling eastward along the N NV state border through today with an upper ridge feature moving in late tonight into Tuesday. At the surface, the region continues to see shower and isolated thunderstorm chances early this morning that will mostly taper off later this morning. There does look to be around a 20-40% chance of some lingering isolated showers in Lassen, W Modoc, N Washoe, and Churchill Counties going through the afternoon hours. But the latest run of the RRFS shows the precipitation chances ending completely late this evening. Snow levels this morning expect to be ~5.5-6 kft along and north of US-50 and ~6-7 kft to the south of US-50 before becoming 6.5-7.5 kft in the afternoon. QPF values from this lingering light precipitation today range between a trace to around 0.2 inches. Daytime high temperatures today will be cooler than those seen over the weekend with the valleys being between 50-60 degrees and higher elevations in the Sierra being in the middle to upper 40s. The dry period continues on Tuesday with area temperatures warming up by 5-10 degrees.

For Wednesday into Thursday, model guidance depicts a PacNW trough traveling through the Western CONUS. With this pattern above, a cold front is expected to pass through the region causing valley rain and mountain snow chances to return on Wednesday mostly for areas north of US-50. Current QPF values range from a trace to around 0.25 inches along the OR border. Snowfall accumulation will be confined to the highest mountain peaks the mid-week snow chances with an NBM probability of 1 inch or more being 10-30% at the Sierra crest. For areas south of US-50, there are lesser chances (~15-30%) for afternoon showers though the main concern will be gusty to strong winds, especially along wind-prone areas near Walker Lake and along US-395 in Mono county. According to the latest NBM run, there is a 35-65% chance that wind gusts will exceed 50 mph in these areas. Will continue to monitor this in case a wind product is needed, but please keep these increased winds in mind if you plan on traveling through the area on Wednesday as they could cause hazardous conditions. On Thursday, the cooling trend persists while area precipitation chances end during the morning hours.

Going into the weekend, temperatures start a warming trend on Friday with the region showing highs in the 50s and 60s by Sunday. Dry conditions are also currently forecast for the region Friday through Sunday. Friday does show some signs for some breezy to gusty northerly winds possible with extended guidance showing an enhanced jet moving over the area. Low confidence at this time, but will continue to monitor in case as the day grows closer. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions mostly expected today for all terminals. The exceptions are at KTRK which will be experiencing fog through 02/16Z and KMMH which could see a brief shower passing by during the same time. Precipitation chances in the region mostly taper off later this morning with areas closer to the OR border seeing lingering chances continue into the afternoon. W NV TAF sites have west-northwesterly winds gusting up to around 20 kts beginning around 02/19-20Z. KMMH looks to be the outlier in the Sierra terminals with westerly winds gusting up 23 kts in the morning and afternoon. Dry conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday. -078

AVALANCHE

Light rain and snow showers chances (15-25%) expect to taper off later this morning with dry conditions through the rest of the day.

* Snow levels and amounts: Snow levels look to be 5.5 kft-7 kft this morning before increasing to 6.5 to 7.5 kft this afternoon. Minimal additional snowfall accumulation expected (up to 1 inch in the Sierra crest of Mono County possible).

* SLR and SWE: SLRs 8-12:1 this morning. Additional SWE expected to be generally less than 0.1 inches.

* Wind gusts: Southwest ridgetop wind gusts up to 45 mph possible this morning decreasing this afternoon.

* Lightning: Thunderstorm chances generally <10%. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.