textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A weak area of low pressure brings isolated light shower and thunder chances this afternoon.

* Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through late week, with daily record highs possible throughout the area.

* A cooling trend with increased winds arrives this weekend, but confidence is lower for precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Showers with embedded lightning moved across the Truckee, Boca/Prosser/Stampede reservoir areas earlier today with light rainfall amounts to 0.10". Additional showers will continue to develop through this afternoon across parts of northeast CA, the eastern Sierra and western NV (mainly west of US-95) with similar light rain amounts or virga, and about a 10% chance of lightning. In addition, as temperatures climb and cloud bases rise, some of these showers may also produce occasional wind gusts to 35 mph through 6 PM. As this low exits and heating ends this evening, this shower activity will quickly diminish with clear skies prevailing overnight.

For the remainder of this week through Friday, high pressure over the southwest US will rebuild into CA/NV, keeping our area in a dry and warm pattern. Highs will continue to run 10-15 degrees above average for this portion of October (mid 80s-near 90 for lower elevations/upper 70s-lower 80s for Sierra communities). For a list of record high maximum and minimum temperatures for the next few days at our area climate sites (Reno & South Lake Tahoe), see the Climate section below.

As we head into the 3-day weekend, this warm pattern is expected to end as a broad area of a low pressure drops southward into the Pacific Northwest. This low will likely bring breezy to gusty winds starting Saturday which could continue through Sunday. Given the recent/upcoming period of very warm and dry conditions, these winds would bring increased fire weather concerns, especially Saturday when afternoon humidity is expected to be lower. Temperatures will begin to drop Saturday, but a more notable cooling arrives Sunday and Monday. The blended guidance is currently projecting highs to drop into the 60s to lower 70s by Sunday and upper 50s-mid 60s by Monday, but there's still about 10-15 degrees of spread between the 25th and 75th percentile, due to varied tracks of this low later in the weekend. Confidence in precipitation chances is also lower, with Saturday now trending drier. Sunday and Monday present a variety of scenarios from no precip to a closed low overhead with several shower bands--for now we'll continue with 10-20% chances across the area until a more definite trend emerges. MJD

AVIATION

* Weak low pressure will keep isolated showers for the main terminals (except KMMH) until 00-01Z today. A few stronger showers may produce isolated lightning, brief MVFR with mountain obscurations and wind gusts 30-35 kt, especially for the western NV sites.

* Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through at least Friday with light winds (gusts below 20 kt).

MJD

CLIMATE

For both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO airport and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL airport):

Record high temperatures for October 3 (91F) and 4 (89F) were tied at Reno over the past weekend. So far this month, South Lake Tahoe has reached any record highs, and neither site has reported any record warm lows.

Near record high temperatures and warmest low temperatures remain in the forecast through Friday. Wednesday (10/7) has the highest probability (near 90%) for at least a tied record high for that date.

Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1990,1991) 10/6 88F (1942,1980,1991,1996) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014) 10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015) 10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996)

* Reno's latest 90+ degree day for any calendar year. ---------------------------------------------------------------

Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021) 10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969) 10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003)

* Reno's warmest low temperature for any day in October.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.