textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Seasonably warm and mostly dry through Friday with low chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons.
* A slight increase in afternoon breezes will elevate fire concerns with minor impacts to recreation.
* Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
A warming and drying trend begins today as southwest flow scours out moisture to the east. However, residual moisture and resultant instability will support a low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms into the early evening. Areas near the Oregon border, and from Mono County into the W NV Basin and Range are most favored, but there may be showers as far west as US-395. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday with daytime highs in the 80s and 90s.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will encourage afternoon breezes to be a skosh stronger than usual Thursday and Friday -- albeit not by much. W/SW gusts of 20-30 mph (locally up to 35 mph) will be common across far NE California and NW Nevada each afternoon, which may make for rougher lake waters in these areas. Moreover, these increased breezes and RH reductions to 10-15% will briefly pose elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions where fuels are dry. Otherwise, seasonably warm and mostly dry weather prevails to end the week with low shower/storm chances persisting in the afternoons from Mono County into the W NV Basin & Range.
Much of the same is in store for the weekend, except afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances expand along the eastern Sierra as moisture begins to filter back into the region. A more pronounced monsoonal moisture surge increases and further expands shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday into early next week, renewing the potential for thunderstorm impacts.
-Salas
AVIATION
Low chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern today, with best chances of 10-20% at western Nevada terminals and KMMH-KBAN. Otherwise, VFR conditions with typical afternoon breezes prevail with cumulus build-ups through the afternoon.
-Salas
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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