textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* A brief cooldown and breezy winds are expected today.

* A gradual warming trend begins on Friday with gusty Sierra ridge winds forecast Friday night.

* Dry conditions and above average temperatures will be the theme this weekend through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows the axis of an upper air trough cutting through the middle of NV this morning leaving most of the CWA on the western side of the trough. At the surface, the latest KRGX radar returns are reporting rain/snow showers continuing in W NV portions of the CWA. Forecast guidance shows the upper trough continuing an eastward journey today. With this pattern aloft, light precipitation chances (15-25%) will persist through the early morning in W NV, but they will taper off within the CWA by the late morning hours. While dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the day, cooler daytime highs compared to yesterday's temperatures are expected. The NE CA and W NV valleys will have high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s range while the Sierra communities will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s range. Breezy winds generally out of the north are expected during the afternoon and evening as well with gusts up to 25-35 mph. Low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees cooler compared to those experienced on the previous night.

For Friday, model guidance is projecting the CWA to have a northerly upper air flow through most of the day being under the back side of the trough. At the surface, slightly warmer daytime high temperatures are expected with the W NV and NE CA valley areas being in the lower to middle 50s and the Sierra communities being in the lower to middle 40s. Dry weather persists with N-NE winds gusting 15-25 mph. But beginning in the late afternoon and evening hours, models are showing a change in the upper air pattern as an upper low cuts off from the eastern trough and makes its way toward the AZ/CA border. With this happening, a jet streak then is seen moving through the flow over the CWA. This will result in Sierra ridge winds increasing out of the E-NE and gusting up to around 70-75 mph Friday night into Saturday morning. Models are also showing potential for some breezy winds at lake level in the Tahoe region with gusts having a ~50% NBM probability of 30+ mph going into Saturday. Will continue to monitor this in case a wind product is needed, so please watch for forecast updates.

Going through the weekend and Monday, the dry conditions and warming trend expects to continue with a Pacific ridge building that will have its front side over the CWA. The latest high temperature forecast for Monday has the NE CA and W NV valleys in the upper 60s to lower 70s range and the Sierra communities in the upper 50s to lower 60s range. Monday looks to be a best shot so far in 2026 for the Reno-Sparks area to see its first 70 degree day of the year with a 70-90% NBM probability of highs exceeding 70 degrees. Extended guidance then shows a possible weak cold front moving through the region late Monday into Tuesday which would briefly interrupt the warming trend. However, temperatures start to warm back up again midweek. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at most area TAF sites today. KTRK has a 20% chance of seeing sub-VFR conditions this morning through 05/18Z should patchy fog move develop near the terminal. Otherwise, generally NNE winds gusting up to around 15-20 kts are expected in the region this afternoon (KMMH having NW winds). Following lingering shower chances in W NV that should taper off around 05/15Z, dry conditions expect to prevail within the region. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.