textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry and mild weather will persist across the region through the upcoming weekend.
* Temperatures will trend well above seasonal averages, with many western Nevada locations likely reaching the 70s by Sunday.
* A significant pattern change is expected mid next week, bringing increased chances for precipitation and gusty winds.
DISCUSSION
High pressure will start to build in today, resulting in sunny skies and mild temperatures across the region. Today will be a calm and sunny day with light winds and some cirrus clouds moving in this evening. Those clouds are due to a weak trough moving through the Pacific NW tonight and will act as a blanket, insulating surface temperatures. Morning lows tomorrow will be just a few degrees warmer than this morning.
Tomorrow, the weak upper trough is expected to move quickly eastward, allowing another ridge to build over the area. Temperatures will begin a noticeable warming trend, with highs reaching the low 60s for western NV/northeast CA and upper 50s in the Sierra. This high pressure will remain in place through the weekend, with temperatures peaking Sunday in the low 70s in western NV/northeast CA and mid 60s in the Sierra.
Looking ahead to next week, model solutions start to diverge. Long range ensemble models show quite a bit of variability in when the first wave of precip will move in. The models have been trending later in the week. Right now, they're showing late Wednesday into Thursday morning as the most likely first chance we'll see precipitation. So, still lots to smooth out over the upcoming days. However, there is increasing confidence in the potential for a more organized atmospheric river event to approach the West Coast sometime next week.
-Justin
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected today. Dry conditions will prevail across the region with light winds. Freezing fog may return to the Northern Sierra valleys including KTRK tonight, but low confidence (40% chance) due to increased cloud cover overnight.
-Justin
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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