textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Well above average temperatures will persist through Friday, with daily record highs possible throughout the area. * A potent cold front is expected to produce gusty winds with the potential for enhanced fire weather concerns Fri-Sat.

* Significant cooling is expected behind the front with below average temperatures returning, along with 10-20% chances for rain and mountain snow showers by Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Dominant high pressure in place will allow for our warm streak of late summer-like temperatures to continue through Friday. For today, there is a likely 90% chance we'll tie or break the daily record high temperature in Reno, as well as other record highs across the area. These temperatures are upwards of 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early October. See the Climate section below for details on potential record highs and record warm lows at Reno and South Lake Tahoe.

Confidence is increasing for a significant pattern change this weekend. A closed low pressure and strong cold front will drop from the Pacific Northwest south into the region. The first thing this system will do is increase winds throughout the eastern Sierra, northeast CA, and western NV. West to southwest winds will begin to increase late Friday afternoon, and remain strong on the ridgetops Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will then increase further on Saturday as the cold front moves through the area. At this time, blended guidance shows widespread gusts between 30-40 mph, with a likely 50-70% chance for gusts over 45 mph along wind prone areas and ridges. When we combine these strong winds with the persistent dry conditions, critical fire weather conditions may materialize across western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra. There are also impacts to recreation, travel, and aviation.

As we head into Sunday and next week, there remains uncertainty into the exact track and strength of the upper level low. There is a possibility that remnant moisture from now hurricane Rachel will get pulled into this low. All of these means lower certainty into the extent of cooling across the region as well as the potential for measurable precipitation. Current blended guidance shows that temperatures by the end of the weekend into next week drop upwards of 20 degrees compared to our current streak of warm temperatures. Readings by this time will be 10-15 degrees below normal by mid-October. There is also a 20-40% chance for precipitation across the region, especially further south of I-80 in the eastern Sierra and western NV. This low is cold enough to allow for the chance of snow above 7,000 to 8,000 feet. Get ready to go from late summer back to fall, plus changing out your sandals for sweatshirts. -McKellar

AVIATION

* There is a low chance for patchy fog through 14Z at KTRK.

* VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through at least Friday with typical afternoon breezes below 20 kts.

* A pattern change this weekend may result in an increased potential for LLWS and turbulence as a potent cold front is expected to provide increasing winds along with much cooler weather with rain and mountain snow showers. -Fuentes/McKellar

CLIMATE

For both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO airport and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL airport):

Near record high temperatures and warmest low temperatures remain in the forecast through Friday. Wednesday (10/7) has the highest probability (near 90%) for at least a tied record high for that date.

Record high temperatures for October 3 (91F) and 4 (89F) were tied at Reno over the past weekend. So far this month, South Lake Tahoe hasn't reached any record highs, and neither site has reported any record warm lows.

Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014) 10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015) 10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996)

* Reno's latest 90+ degree day for any calendar year. ---------------------------------------------------------------

Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe:

Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021) 10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969) 10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003)

* Reno's warmest low temperature for any day in October.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.