textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through Thursday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. * Increasing winds are expected Thursday, with stronger gust by Friday afternoon, leading to elevated fire weather concerns.

* Temperatures drop about 5-10 degrees below normal and breezy winds return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Thursday, with temperatures running 4-8 degrees above average. Winds will remain light this afternoon, then increase Thursday afternoon ahead of a dry cold front expected Friday.

Southwesterly wind gusts on Thursday may reach 25-35 mph, creating localized fire-weather concerns and choppy conditions on area lakes, especially north of US-50. Winds will strengthen further late Thursday night into Friday as the front approaches. Ridgetop gusts could exceed 75 mph, followed by widespread southwest gusts of 30-40 mph north of US-50 Friday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will elevate fire-weather concerns; see the Fire Weather Discussion below for details.

Cooler, near-normal temperatures return Saturday and persist into early next week. Highs may fall 5-10 degrees below average by Monday. Some colder Sierra valleys could drop below freezing Saturday morning, with freezing temperatures becoming more likely early next week. Ensemble guidance indicates an upper-level trough will move across the region early next week. Aside from the cooler temperatures, precipitation chances remain limited, generally below 10%. Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday with light W-SW wind gusts this afternoon around 10-15kts. Winds will increase by Thursday afternoon with terminal gusts generally around 20-25 kts

Winds will strengthen across the northern Sierra Thursday night, with FL100 winds of 40-45kts possible after midnight resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS. Surface gusts across Tahoe and W.Nevada could see gusts around 25-25kts with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. Fuentes

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing winds and continued dry conditions will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions by Thursday afternoon. The greatest concern is expected Friday with a dry cold front and has resulted in the issuance of Fire Weather Watches for portions of W.NV.

On Thursday, southwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected across W.Nevada and NE California, with afternoon RH falling to 10-15%. Isolated areas may experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions, mainly along the Sierra Front, far NW Nevada, and NE California.

The strongest winds are expected Friday afternoon ahead of the front. Southwest gusts of 35-40 mph are most likely north of I-80, while wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum RH will increase slightly Friday, particularly across NE California and far N.Washoe County. However, despite minimum RH values of 18-25%, gusty winds could still produce 3-6 hours of critical fire weather conditions. Fuentes/Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ420-421.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ423-429.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ458.

CA...