textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Late spring to early summer warmth will prevail into next week, with highs climbing well above mid-March normals.

* Longer range outlooks strongly favor dry and warm conditions going through at least the third week of March.

DISCUSSION

Warmer temperatures will resume today with highs close to 70 degrees for lower elevations, then more notable gains will show up starting Thursday as a strong high pressure ridge off the southern CA coast expands northward. The storm track across the Pacific NW will keep this ridge center in a similar location through the weekend, resulting in similar high temperatures each day (mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and 60s for Sierra communities) with light PM breezes. One small exception is Saturday as a weak trough brushes by with a slight increase in PM breezes and a few degrees of cooling north of I-80 to the Oregon border.

This warmup then climbs to another level for next week as the ridge becomes centered over much of CA/NV. Some of the more aggressive blended guidance data leaves open the possibility of upper 80s for warmer valleys of western NV Tuesday-Wednesday. Given that Reno's current record high for any date in March is 83 degrees (3/31/1966), this scenario would be uncharted territory for the climate history of western NV cities at this time of year. Other guidance sources including traditional model statistics and estimates of afternoon highs based on mixing 700 mb temperatures down to the surface are not quite as extreme, but even those projections of lower 80s would still set daily record highs for at least March 16-18. For Sierra communities, highs are on track to push above 70 degrees from Monday onward. The eventual location and strength of the upper ridge center will likely bring fluctuations in how warm we could get, but it won't change the big picture of very warm and persistent dry conditions across the region through the 3rd week of March. MJD

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through the upcoming week. Winds will be light today, then afternoon west breezes with gusts 15-20 kt return Thurs-Fri. Winds may then edge upward a bit for Saturday with W-NW gusts around 20 kt.

For next week, prepare for rising density altitudes as afternoon highs surpass 80 degrees at western NV terminals starting Monday. MJD

HYDROLOGY

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue the ongoing early snowmelt leading to diurnal increases in streamflows. Melt will accelerate next week with record high temperatures expected. While area rivers and streams will be running fast and cold, flows will remain well below flood impact levels. This level of snow melt will greatly reduce late spring to early summer water supply conditions.

-Bardsley/MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.