textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer and drier weather continues this weekend with breezy winds this afternoon.

* Gusty winds and dry conditions may elevate fire concerns Monday and especially Tuesday.

* Precipitation chances return for the second half of next week with breezy conditions persisting.

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery is showing cumulus fields across much of the area this afternoon. Later on, we have low chances (10-15%) of rain and storms from southern Mono and extending into eastern Mineral/Churchill/Pershing counties. Tomorrow, conditions will be drier and warmer with the 10-15% chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms restricted to Mono and Alpine counties.

On Monday, another upper level trough descends from the Gulf of Alaska towards the PacNW. This will start to tighten the surface pressure gradient a bit near the OR border leading to increased southwest breezes for eastern Lassen, the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe county. This may lead to some choppy lake waters in eastern Lassen and Pyramid Lake, plus elevated fire weather conditions in the late afternoon and early evening. For more info about fire conditions please look at the fire weather section below.

By Tuesday, winds will increase as the trough starts to push inland. We will potentially have the strongest winds between Tuesday and Wednesday (still trying to nail the details about that). Currently, looking at gusts of 30-40 mph valleys and 40-50 mph on the highest elevations, but again take this numbers with a grain of salt for now. Anyway, there is potential for choppy lakes along the Sierra Front, the NV Basin and Range, NE CA, and Mono County with those winds. Plus the fire weather potential increases too.

Elevated/breezy winds will continue through the rest of the work week as we remain under the influence of that upper trough that continues to deepen over the western US. However, our rain chances start to increase late in the week, although quite low at 10-25% for the Sierra, northeast CA and northern Washoe near the OR border.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail across much of the area. KTRK has a 15% chance of FG between 10-15Z Sun AM. There is a 10% chance of showers east of KHTH/KMMH this afternoon, and 10-15% for KMMH and vicinity tomorrow afternoon.

Winds will be the primary concern with west to southwest winds gusting to 22-27 kts between 19Z-03Z today. Winds subside overnight, and are expected to have lower speeds on Sunday afternoon. Areas of turbulence are possible along and east of the Sierra with FL100 winds of 30-40 kts from 00Z-06Z this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds return late Monday, peaking on Tuesday.

-HC

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions return early this week as winds start to slowly increase with the approach of another upper level trough. On Monday, elevated to near critical conditions return to portions of northern Washoe, the Surprise Valley and eastern Lassen. Periods of southwest winds gusting to around 25-30 mph and min RH around 15%. The threat appears to be very isolated to the higher elevations and lee-side of area mountains of northern Washoe and eastern Lassen counties.

By Tuesday, conditions quickly deteriorate in much of the same region, but also extending southward into the Sierra Front with southwest winds greater than 35 mph. Min RH increases slightly, but mostly on mountain areas (Sierra). However, the rest of the area of concern has min RH at 9-17%.

By Wednesday, winds only diminish slightly but min RH continues to increase, reducing our risk for critical conditions. Breezy conditions persist through the rest of the week, but we have a continuous increase of rain chances and relative humidity limiting the fire risk.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.