textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue today with temperatures 5-10 degrees above average.

* Strong, gusty southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon and Friday ahead of a dry cold front, leading to elevated fire weather concerns.

* Cooler, near-normal temperatures return for the weekend, with temperatures dropping 5-10 degrees below average early next week.

DISCUSSION

Today marks the start of a fairly significant pattern change across the western US. A trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will tighten the pressure gradient across our region. Southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible across Western Nevada and Northeast California, and up to 25 mph in the Tahoe Basin. Highs today will remain well above average, reaching the mid-80s to low 90s for Western Nevada and 70s to low 80s in the Sierra.

The strongest winds are forecast for Friday as a dry cold front sweeps through the region. Ridgetop gusts in the Sierra could exceed 75 mph, with widespread valley gusts of 30-45 mph, particularly north of US-50 and along the Sierra Front. These strong winds, combined with low relative humidity (15-25%), will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures on Friday will remain warm, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for Western Nevada and mid-60s to low 70s in the Sierra, still above seasonal averages for many locations. Despite the frontal passage, moisture remains very limited and the only models to show any indications of precipitation are the WRF-NSSL and NBM (<20%) near the NV/OR border and the Warner Mountains.

Temperatures will moderate to near-normal values this weekend. Highs will generally be in the mid-70s for Western Nevada and mid-60s to low 70s in the Sierra. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s and 40s, with some colder Sierra valleys potentially reaching freezing or slightly below by Sunday morning. Breezy conditions will persist on Saturday, especially across the Sierra, but winds are expected to diminish by Sunday. Dry conditions are expected to continue through next week. Temperatures will bottom out on Monday, then slowly rebound back to near-normal by Wednesday.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon with increasing W-SW wind gusts this afternoon with terminal gusts generally around 20-25 kts

Winds will continue to strengthen across the northern Sierra tonight, with FL100 winds of 40-45kts possible after midnight resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS. Surface gusts across Tahoe and W.Nevada could see gusts around 25-25kts with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. Fuentes/Justin

FIRE WEATHER

Southwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected this afternoon across western Nevada and northeast California, with afternoon RH falling to 10-15%. Isolated areas may experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions, mainly along the Sierra Front, far northwest Nevada, and northeast California.

The strongest winds are expected Friday afternoon ahead of the front. Southwest gusts of 35-40 mph are most likely north of I-80, while wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum RH will increase slightly Friday, particularly across NE California and far N.Washoe County. However, despite minimum RH values of 18-25%, gusty winds could still produce 3-6 hours of critical fire weather conditions. Fuentes/Justin