textproduct: Reno
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry weather with unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail early this week with enhanced afternoon breezes today and Tuesday.
* Pattern shifts to cooler and wetter conditions by midweek with valley rain and high elevation snow.
* Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday, though confidence remains low on the extent of the impacts.
DISCUSSION
A weak ridge is currently moving overhead, allowing our region to stay dry and partly cloudy today. This ridge will hang around for a couple more days, until around Wednesday when it starts to breakdown and a trough pushes it out east. Temperatures through Wednesday will top out in the mid 70s for NE CA and W NV valleys and mid 60s for Sierra valleys. Typical afternoon gusts up to 25 mph out of the west will also be around through Wednesday.
As that trough approaches the West Coast Wednesday afternoon, there's about a 20-30% chance of showers (10% chance of lightning) along the Sierra crest from Tahoe northward, into NE CA and N Washoe County. Right now the CAMs are showing anywhere from 150-600 J/kg of MUCAPE, just enough potential energy to produce a couple non-severe thunderstorms.
Thursday onward there will be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms (50-80% PoPs, 15-30% chance of lightning), although some uncertainty remains in the timing, location, and intensity of the storms. Temperatures will take a hit as well, with high temperatures dipping down into the upper 50s for W NV valleys and upper 40s for Sierra valleys by Sunday. We'll know more as we get later in the week, but at it stands right now, expect a stormy pattern through Sunday.
-Justin
AVIATION
VFR conditions continue today for all area TAF sites. Dry conditions are expected in the region through Tuesday with afternoon breezes up to 15-20 kts. Precipitation chances may return to a portion of the region on Wednesday due to an approaching low. The chances are then forecast to increase and become more widespread through the remainder of the week.
-078/Justin
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None. CA...None.
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