textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Light winds and valley inversions through Thursday will maintain hazy skies and air quality reductions for all valley areas with patchy freezing fog in some Sierra valleys and over Mono Lake. * A passing wave Thursday may bring gusty mountain ridge winds and low chances for showers to the Sierra and portions of western Nevada late week.

DISCUSSION

Freezing fog remains locked in over Mono Lake this morning, even with some cirrus overhead. That's expected to dissipate early Wednesday afternoon, likely around 12-1 PM. Valley inversions are still in place and likely will be through the end of the work week. A cut-off low is still on track to pass by to our south, sparking low end precip chances (20-30%) in Mono County Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Snow levels will be around 7500', although even the most aggressive CAMs are showing snow amounts of 1" at most along the highest peaks and qpf is at most 0.10" in other parts of Mono County. So it's very likely these showers won't amount to much. But good to keep in mind if you want to go in the backcountry up there.

Other than that, temperatures stay 5-10 degrees above normal through most of next week and winds remain light. Winds shift from the west to the north/northeast after Wednesday, staying northerly through the weekend. A very weak backdoor cold front looks to sneak on by to our east over Pershing/Churchill counties on Friday, dropping high temperatures on Saturday by 10 degrees but will quickly rebound Sunday and initiate another warming trend into next week.

Long range ensembles are still showing a pattern change towards the end of next week. It looks like there could be multiple storms rolling through the Sierra and western NV based off of the ensembles and the GEFS IVT plume. This far out, confidence remains very low due to each new model run showing something slightly different. But just know there are signs that indicate a pattern change could be coming.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light surface winds continue for area TAF sites through tonight. Freezing fog has a 10-15% chance to form again this morning over KTRK, but the upper level clouds will likely inhibit it from forming. Haze in W.NV may lead to reduced slantwise visibilities this afternoon. A quick system moves through Thursday, delivering 20-30% chances for a light rain shower for KMMH.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.