textproduct: Reno

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms, with high Sierra snow showers, persist through this evening but with lower chances and coverage.

* Gradual warm up along with drier weather prevails starting on Wednesday into the weekend.

* Well above average temperatures return next week with western Nevada valleys potentially reaching 90F degrees.

DISCUSSION

A line of showers continue across portions of western NV and the Sierra early this morning. This line will continue a southward track as the upper level trough continues its movement to the southeast towards SoCal and AZ. Hi-res models continue to show showers and thunderstorm continuing this afternoon. The main areas of concern will be south of Highway 50 and along the Sierra crest from NE CA to Mono county. Thunder chances remain at 10-30% through the afternoon and early evening, then drop after 8PM below 10%. Most of the rain and high elevation mountain snow should be done by 10 PM tonight, except for a few stray lingering light showers.

Thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be is expected to be weaker than the last few days and with less coverage. MUCAPE values are around 100-600 J/kg during peak heating around 2-5 PM with 0-6 km shear in the 40-50 kts range, DCAPE around 300-800 J/kg, PW around 0.5 to 0.75" and mean winds aloft around 20 kts. Therefore, expect with any storm frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds up to 45 mph, and periods of heavy rain that could lead to ponding of low-lying areas through this evening.

Once the upper level trough leaves the region northerly flow remains keeping cool temperatures on Wednesday. Although, we should be warmer with less cloud cover. Temperatures will continue a gradual warm up trend as a high amplitude upper level ridge moves inland. This will lead to 5-15 degrees above average temperatures through Saturday. A very weak upper level disturbance in the PacNW will help in keeping the temperatures under control Friday.

Late this weekend into early next week, temperatures will soar as a broader high pressure area settles over the Desert Southwest bringing more warm and dry air. This will potentially lead to the first 90 degree days of the season for western NV and NE CA valleys.

-HC

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue across much of the area with periods of MVFR near showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Thunder chances today will be 10-30% between 18-03Z then dropping below 10%. Showers will end in most areas by 06Z tonight. Mountain obscurations persist through 06-12Z tonight. Periods of FG are likely around KTRK early this morning, and again tonight leading to IFR to LIFR conditions. Winds will be light and VRB overnight, and from the north and northwest with gusts up to 20 kts between 19-03Z. However, stronger and erratic gusts up to 40 kts are possible near TSRA.

-HC

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.