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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
High pressure extending into the region from the north will push eastward off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast Monday. The resulting southeast flow will bring a return to unseasonably warm weather through the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
As of 110 PM Sunday...
Mostly sunny and mild this afternoon (near normal temperatures).
Some increase in cloudiness, especially west late tonight.
The skies were mostly sunny across central NC early this afternoon. High pressure was extending down the eastern seaboard into our region, expect highs to hold in the mid 60s to around 70.
Fair skies are expected this evening and most of the overnight. However, as the high pressure ridge axis slowly moves more to the eastern areas, the H925-850 return flow will become more of a SE one from the Atlantic into the western areas late tonight. This will increase the development of cloudiness late. Lows will be mostly in the 40s to around 50 south.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 135 PM Sunday...
Aloft, ridging will be in place, extending in from the southeast coast and over southwest Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure ridging off the New England coast will gradually slide off into the N. Atlantic. A cad-like wedge will still be in place on Mon. At the same time, the low-level high pressure ridging between 850-700 mb will be situated ENE the NC coast and gradually slide to the east into the evening and overnight. As this happens, increasing low- level moisture will increasingly spread northward around the western periphery of the high from SC and into the Piedmont and Foothills/mtns of western NC. High temperatures are likely to vary from west to east, where clouds are expected to be prevalent in the cad-like wedge over the NW. Highs could range from the low 60s in the NW to the low/mid 70s in the Far SE.
For Mon night into Tue morning, as the moisture in the low-levels increases, particularly across our western zones, shallow upslope across western NC should promote a chance of light rain or drizzle over the Triad and southern Piedmont. Forecast soundings show enough deep saturation of 3-5 kft deep for collision coalescence processes. Much of the global models depict these light rain chances, as well as the 12z HRRR/ARW/FV3. Overnight lows across the region with rising dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 will favor well above average lows in the 50s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 250 PM Sunday...
Temperatures well above average with near record breaking temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances increase Wednesday and Thursday with low confidence late week and into the weekend.
Upper level ridge over the region Tuesday with the center off the Southeast coast will slowly weaken and shift south through the week resulting in deep upper level moisture moving in from the south mid to late week. At the surface, high pressure well off the Mid- Atlantic coast will barely extend into Central NC. Onshore southeast surface flow will help influence WAA Tuesday and into Wednesday ahead of the what could be a tropical cyclone in the the Gulf of Mexico. With that in mind some lift along with the moisture could result in showers in the NW Piedmont Tuesday and expanding across the entire region Wednesday afternoon. Highest PoPs are overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Showers could linger into late Thursday night before a cold front sags south and clears the region early Friday. After the cold front exits the region we could see some clearing of the skies Friday afternoon and evening. For the weekend, a low confidence forecast as ensembles still have a wide variety of track and intensity for the PTC developing in the Gulf and for now expected to bring more rainfall to much of the Southeast over the weekend and early next week.
For temperatures during the work week, expect highs well above average in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the warmest days with Wednesdays forecast high temps 3-5 degrees near the Daily Record Max Temperature. Temperatures will cool down a tad (even through they will still be about 5 to 10 degrees above average) after the front moves through with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s north to low/mid 70s south.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 725 PM Sunday...
24 hour TAF period: The clear/mostly clear skies this evening will gradually give way to bkn/ovc high clouds by Mon morning, after which they will remain through the end of the TAF period. Fairly high confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KRDU, KFAY and KRWI. At KINT and KGSO, MVFR cigs are expected to develop Mon morning and could linger into mid-day before scattering. However, there is some uncertainty wrt how low the cigs will be and how long they will persist. Light nely winds should prevail through the TAF period.
Outlook: As the surface high moves out over the nrn Atlantic and a cold front approaches from the west, winds will veer around to more ely Mon night, then sely Tue. The increasing moisture advection into the area may result in additional sub-VFR conditions Tue, Wed, and Thu, with some light rain possible mainly over the Piedmont.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
November 5: KFAY: 86/2003
November 6: KGSO: 80/1975 KRDU: 83/2022 KFAY: 85/2022
November 7: KGSO: 82/2022 KRDU: 84/2022 KFAY: 86/2022
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
November 6: KGSO: 65/1938
November 7: KGSO: 61/2022 KRDU: 65/2022 KFAY: 65/2003
November 8: KGSO: 57/1975 KRDU: 64/1895 KFAY: 65/1946
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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