textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 255 AM Thursday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 255 AM Thursday...

1) Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph.

2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday.

3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back to near normal.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger Statement again today. Winds will be stronger today than in previous days. Expect SW winds at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, with gusts to 30 mph.

The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit today. Strong heating with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s can be expected. This will aid the mixing process by late morning with SW winds expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph by noon, then 15 to 25 mph this afternoon through 600 PM. Peak gusts up to 30-32 mph are expected.

Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely be issued daily until things change significantly.

Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally pretty light. Fire weather concerns will likely persist late weekend into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near record high temperatures through Saturday.

See records below. Strong ridging will persist overhead with only a brief brush with mid/upper troughing expected to pass mainly north of our region Thursday night through Friday morning, moving off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday afternoon. A period of mostly mid and high clouds is expected during that period since the trough will be moisture starved and brushing by during the late night and morning hours. The temperatures may be a degree or two cooler on Friday - but the downslope WNW flow in the afternoon with clearing skies should really offset that. Expect highs Friday and Saturday similar to the highs today.

Fortunately, it is still April and the humidity looks tolerable if not comfortable, with dew points mostly bottoming out in the 50s each day, perhaps even some 40s especially in the Piedmont. So heat indices will be about 3-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back near normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers, then will turn temperatures back to near normal.

A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning through afternoon. Models are still showing an earlier frontal passage, with 3 of 4 LREF ensemble clusters showing the front pass through the region Sunday morning. If the front does move through later in the afternoon, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially in the east. Instability will be weak, meaning that any severe weather is not expected. Additionally, overall light rain is expected with any showers that develop, with the mean of each of the 4 clusters of the LREF showing less than 0.25 inch of rain by Sunday night. Deterministic models are also showing much of central NC with less than 0.1 inch of rain from the frontal passage. Thus, little relief from drought conditions are expected.

The front will drop temperatures back near normal, even reaching below normal at times. Sunday will start the cool down with the frontal passage, with lows dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. Lows will drop further Monday night as high pressure builds into or just north of the region. If the high settles over the region, temperatures could be even cooler, leading to areas of patchy frost, especially north. Highs on Monday look to drop into generally the mid 60s to around 70s, with temperatures then increasing each day Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

As of 630 AM Thursday...

Generally VFR conditions will continue through 12z/Friday. It will be breezy between late morning through the afternoon today from the SW at 15-25 knots. Winds will be mostly 10 knots or less during the overnight through mid-morning hours. A trough will approach from the west tonight and move by the region on Friday. There will be mostly some mid and high level clouds and possibly a brief shower Friday.

Outlook: There is a chance of some light rain behind a cold front Sunday. There is a small chance of MVFR cigs Sunday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected into next week.

CLIMATE

All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.