textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Confidence in rain and possibly even stormy weather late Saturday into Sunday continues to increase.

* Collaboration call with WPC at 200 am revealed the Gulf system will likely be moving more quickly than previous forecasts. QPF maximums likely over the higher terrain in the NC mountains and near the inland moving coastal front with this system. Potential faster movement may help keep rainfall a bit lower than it could potentially be.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

1) Dry and warmer weather is expected through the work week. Confidence in rain Saturday into Sunday continues to increase.

2) Impactful system for the weekend, note the discussion above and below.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and warmer weather is expected through the work- week. Confidence in rain and possibly stormy weather continues to increase Saturday into Sunday.

Quick update on potential QPF for the weekend...

Collaboration call with WPC at 200 am revealed the Gulf system will likely be moving more quickly than previous forecasts. QPF maximums likely over the higher terrain in the NC mountains and near the inland moving coastal front with this system between 12z Saturday and 18z Sunday. Potential faster movement may help keep rainfall a bit lower than it could potentially be. Current projections are around 1 inch for central NC, with 2-3+ inches near the coastal front and in the mountains.

Previous discussion...

Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week. Highs will return to around 80 today and reach the lower to mid 80s Thursday. This will be the warmest day as SW-W flow will increase ahead of the approaching dry cold front. The front will push south through the region Thursday night. There will be little moisture to work with in a deep westerly flow along and ahead of the front. Thus, no POP. The skies will remain mainly clear/sunny. Cooler high pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley Friday, then move offshore Saturday. There will be increasing cloudiness on Saturday with a chance of showers late, mainly in the south and west. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s both Friday and Saturday.

Things will quickly change on Saturday into Saturday night as as the system should be moving quickly. NHC depicts a potential hurricane approaching the lower MS valley region by late Friday. This may track north into the MS/AL areas Saturday. It appears a coastal warm front will exist from NC/SC and potentially move inland Saturday night as the remnant low tracks potentially west of the Appalachians into Sunday. It appears at the current time that the chance of showers will increase by Saturday, becoming likely by Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Showers possibly thunder will overspread the region into Sunday. Much more on all the possible scenarios in future forecasts.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 150 AM Wednesday...

A ridge axis extending from roughly IXA to CLT from surface high pressure just off the Mid-Atlantic coast will favor patchy/areas of fog, most probable affecting RWI due to local affects. Although fleeting near-surface banks of mist/fog can't be ruled out at the Triad terminals or RDU, crossover forecast technique suggests worst case scenario would be a short period of mist around sunrise; confidence is low enough to preclude including in the 06z TAFs. Winds will remain light and variable underneath high pressure through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook: Shallow radiation fog will be possible at RWI Thu morning and possibly again early Fri morning, although increasing mid/high clouds will lead to lower forecast confidence in its development. A reinforcing cold front will move through Fri morning. Rain and flight restrictions, in cold air damming, are likely to develop late Sat night into Sun.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.