textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Downward adjustment in lows on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

* A downward adjustment/delay in PoPs across western areas on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 140 AM Thursday...

1) Cold air damming regime likely to persist into the afternoon, with another day of cool temperatures and light rain.

2) A period of autumnal weather on Friday and Saturday with the coolest low temperatures since early June if not mid May will give way to a warming trend with highs climbing into the upper 80s by Wednesday.

3) Another extended period of dry weather is expected from Friday through Wednesday with limited rain chances arriving toward the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

As of 140 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold air damming regime likely to persist into the afternoon, with another day of cool temperatures and light rain.

Today should be the last day of the CAD wedge allowing for cool, wet conditions over central NC. A mid level low looks to slowly move over central NC through the day today. This will allow for forcing for continued light rain/drizzle in mainly the west and south this morning through this afternoon. Then, dry air should move in from the northwest, helping erode the CAD regime this afternoon into tonight as the low shifts offshore. With the increased cloud cover into at least early afternoon, another day of below average temperatures are expected. Highs this afternoon look to reach the low 60s in the northwest to around 70 in the east. Temperatures could also remain cooler if the CAD regime takes longer to dissipate this afternoon. Overnight, lows should dip into the upper 40s in the northwest to the mid 50s in the southeast.

Additionally, a surface level low pressure system will continue to strengthen and deepen off the NC coast through the day today. This will allow for the surface pressure gradient to strengthen, allowing for gusty winds across the region. 20-25 mph gusts are most likely, but could reach up to 30 mph, especially as you go further east.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A period of autumnal weather on Friday and Saturday with the coolest low temperatures since early June if not mid May will give way to a warming trend with highs climbing into the upper 80s by Wednesday.

Deep and anomalously strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday will drive a chilly and dry airmass into the region. Low- level thickness values on Friday morning will range in the 1350s. Morning dew points in the 40s may mix out into the upper 30s with deep afternoon mixing. It should be a beautiful fall day with mostly sunny skies and highs around 70. The coolest morning since the first week of June if not mid May is expected on Saturday with lows ranging in the mid 40s to around 50. These lows range about 6 to 11 degrees below average.

The airmass on Saturday will moderate with morning thickness values warming 10 to 15m yielding highs in the mid 70s in most locations with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Sunday morning will generally range in the upper 40s to lower 50s although if radiational cooling conditions are maximized, lows could be cooler and more similar to Saturday morning. The mid and upper level flow will transition to more northwesterly on Sunday and Monday with highs moderating into the upper 70s to lower 80s which is a few degrees above average.

The flow will become increasingly southwesterly on Tuesday and Wednesday with morning low level thickness values warming into the 1390s on Wednesday morning and near 1400m on Thursday morning. These values will support highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday and in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday which is about 6 to 10 degrees above average. Lows will moderate through the period and range in the lower to mid 60s by Wednesday night bringing a return of some mugginess to the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Another extended period of dry weather is expected from Friday through Wednesday with limited rain chances arriving toward the end of the work week.

A dry north to northwesterly flow aloft from Friday through early next week will result in fair weather and the maintenance of a dry air mass. Precipitable water values of around 0.50 inches or less which is about 25% of normal are expected on Friday with PW values ranging under 0.75 inches on Saturday through Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a westerly flow aloft which will maintain a dry pattern. An upper level trough spreading across the OH Valley and Great Lakes on Wednesday may bring a chance of showers or storms to the area late in the work week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 100 AM Thursday...

The rest of the night will be another night of low clouds and light rain/drizzle as the cold air damming regime holds over the region. Expect the MVFR to IFR ceilings to remain over the region, with a few locations potentially having brief reductions in visibilities from light rain/drizzle that remains into the morning. It appears that ceilings should lift and scatter out to MVFR and then VFR this afternoon, but models typically struggle with how long the CAD will remain in place, so wouldn't be shocked if restrictions remain later into the afternoon. Otherwise, northeasterly winds will be gusty all day up to around 25 kts, with the strongest gusts expected further east this afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure will extend across the region and favor mostly VFR conditions through early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.