textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Nothing appreciable

KEY MESSAGES

As of 255 AM Thursday...

1) A continuation of dry and seasonable conditions is expected through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A continuation of dry and seasonable conditions is expected through the middle of next week.

An initially high amplitude mid and upr-level ridge over the cntl Plains will progress slowly ewd and across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic through early to mid next week, while gradually weakening. To the east of the slowly progressive and dampening ridge, a couple of moisture-starved shortwave troughs will dig across the Middle Atlantic and into a mean trough off the East Coast, with passages across cntl NC early tonight and again on Sun.

At the surface, Subtropical Storm Josephine will accelerate northeastward and away from the coast of the Middle Atlantic and New England later today and tonight. A series of reinforcing, Canadian surface highs will progress across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic and extend across cntl NC through the middle of next week. A ~1025 mb one now centered over srn ON will gradually strengthen to near 1035 mb while progressing across the lwr Great Lakes and nrn Middle Atlantic through the first half of the weekend. Its leading edge will be marked by a weak frontal zone now stretching from srn QC to the cntl Plains and which will progress swd and across the srn Middle Atlantic on Fri. Following, maritime-influenced nely flow will both increase the risk for mostly a scattering of stratocumulus Fri through the weekend, within otherwise deeply dry and clear skies, and also contribute to slightly cooler and below average high temperatures Fri-Sun.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 610 AM Thursday...

Canadian surface high pressure and related dry, continental air will favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through the 12Z TAF period. There may be a few lingering wind gusts in the teens kts from late morning through early this afternoon especially at FAY and RWI, in a weakening pressure gradient between the Canadian high and Subtropical Storm Josephine off the nrn Middle Atlantic coast.

Outlook: While VFR conditions are likely to continue through early next week, low VFR to MVFR-based stratocumulus will be possible in nely flow, behind a backdoor cold front, this weekend. The relative highest probability of associated sub-VFR ceilings will be over the VA and NC Tidewater Sat morning and in the mountains and Foothills Sun and Mon morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.