textproduct: Raleigh

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 230 AM Monday...

* No changes are planned to current headlines. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7am Monday through 12pm Tuesday for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain of central NC.

* Up to an inch of snow accumulation expected, with as much 2 inches possible near the VA border.

* Very cold overnight lows in the teens to lower/mid 20s will allow leftover moisture on roadways and sidewalks to freeze, resulting in slippery and hazardous travel tonight through late morning/mid day Tuesday.

Earlier clearing has led to the development of areas of dense fog, with gradual improvement expected from west to east as moisture and cloud cover increases ahead of the system.

While most of the radar returns will be virga, weak ascent from PVA and jet-induced lift may produce non-measurable sprinkles or very light precipitation across the far northern Piedmont through daybreak. With sub-freezing sfc temperatures, a brief period/fleeting light freezing rain is possible, though impacts should be minimal.

An arctic cold front--currently over central TN-- will sweep SE through the area this morning, followed by a trailing shortwave trough through the evening. Enhanced by a weak 850 wave, WAA and frontogenesis will support a swath of light precip spreading into the western Piedmont after daybreak, exiting the coastal plain this evening. QPF will range from a few hundredths across the south to ~0.20" across the northeast.

Along and north of HWY 64, precip should begin as a rain or a rain- snow mix, before rapid column cooling supports a change-over to all snow before ending. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across the advisory area, highest across the northeastern Piedmont and northern coastal plain where guidance indicates the best potential for banding, and where snow ratios of 12:1 are possible.

South of 64, precip will fall as mostly rain with, briefly mixing with or changing over to snow before ending. Little to no accumulation is expected there.

Light snow/flurries will taper off across the northern/central coastal plain between 00 to 03z. Continued strong CAA and decreasing cloud cover will result in very cold temperatures Tuesday morning with lows ranging from mid/upper teens north(snow ground cover) to lower/mid 20s south. Any remaining snow or moisture on area roads and sidewalks will freeze, producing hazardous travel overnight and into Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 230 AM Monday. . .

* Areas of black ice possible Tuesday morning

Arctic high pressure over the region will make for a cold start to our Tue. Lingering wet/snowy roads from the Mon system will likely mean areas of patchy black ice will be possible into the mid/late morning hours. Mostly sunny skies should prevail for much of the day under light winds. Highs will be well below normal in the upper 30s over the far north, to lower 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will shift east Tue night and winds may shift slightly from the southwest, but remain light. Lows will be cold again in the middle 20s to around 30 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 230 AM Monday...

* Gusty winds Wed with winds up to 30 mph possible

* Precipitation chances somewhat limited with a few moisture starved frontal systems.

* Well below normal temperatures favored for the late weekend

High pressure will shift offshore Wed. A fast-moving low pressure system tracking across the Lower Great Lakes will create a tightened pressure gradient across the region. Southwest winds could gust up to 30 mph or so at times during the afternoon hours as guidance depicts a strong low-level jet upwards of 50-kts. The pressure gradient relaxes Wed night as a moisture starved cold front advances through by early Thu. Precipitation chances appear very limited with this front. Temperatures should moderate closer to average with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Cool high pressure settles over the region Thu, with highs below normal generally in the mid 40s to near 50.

Our next system looks to arrive sometime Fri/Fri night when a warm front lifts north across the Carolinas. This will be ahead of another potentially strong Arctic cold front that tracks through sometime Sat-Sun, ushering in much below normal temperatures with highs possibly in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the teens to low 20s. For the warm front Fri, ensemble guidance is largely dry, with moisture and lift somewhat lacking. However, if it were to trend wetter, we could not rule out a rain/snow mix. Confidence in that scenario, however, is not high at the moment. The Arctic front Sat into Sun appears right now as a dry passage, with impacts mainly centered around very cold temperatures as wind chills could be in the lower teens Sun morning.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 250 AM Monday...

Earlier clearing has led to the development of areas of dense fog, with gradual improvement expected from west to east as moisture and cloud cover increases ahead of the system.

A rain/snow mix and associated IFR or MVFR ceilings and visibilities will then spread in from west to east in the early morning around INT and GSO, changing over to all snow by late morning before ending by mid to late afternoon. Precipitation will likely start in the late morning or early afternoon at the eastern terminals, initially as a rain/snow mix at RDU and RWI before changing to snow in the early to mid afternoon. IFR or LIFR visibilities are likely where all snow occurs. At FAY, precipitation should start as rain before possibly changing to a brief rain/snow mix at the end of the event. Precipitation will diminish in coverage and intensity by late afternoon with visibilities improving, but an upper disturbance may result in some additional light snow in the east during the evening hours.

Outlook: Light snow/flurries should exit the eastern counties by 06z followed by gradually clearing from west to east through 12z Tuesday. VFR weather is then forecast from Tuesday through Friday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.