textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Nothing appreciable

KEY MESSAGES

As of 240 AM Thursday...

1) Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week

DISCUSSION

As of 240 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Becoming hot, seasonably moist/humid, and with limited diurnal convection during the latter half of the weekend through mid next week

The flow aloft will undergo amplification during the latter half of the weekend into early to mid next week, as trough anchored by a cyclone now over the Gulf of AK progresses inland and across the Pacific Northwest and Rockies. Downstream and through the same time, a mid-level, sub-tropical high now over TX will progress ewd and strengthen along or just off the srn Middle Atlantic coast.

Surface high pressure beneath and downstream of the associated sub- tropical high will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a trough will extend in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a sea breeze will probably move through the entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-evening. Warm and seasonably moist sswly flow around the Bermuda high and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the lwr 90s and mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s by Sun, with similarly hot and perhaps slightly more-humid conditions likely to continue through the middle of next week. An associated weakly unstable and weakly capped environment (with pockets of moderate instability possible) will become supportive of isolated/widely scattered convection - favored along the lee trough (nw Piedmont) and also possibly along the sea breeze (Sampson Co.) through mid-evening, when nocturnal cooling and boundary layer stabilization should cause convective inhibition to become prohibitive to development. More than slight to low chance probabilities of rain/convection will not result until the next cold front reaches cntl NC, probably not until just beyond the valid forecast period (ie. not until Thu).

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 155 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions should largely prevail through the TAF period. The showers accompanied by 6-8 kft cigs moving across the northern sites now should continue ewd through early this morning. A gust into the teens will be possible ahead of the showers. Skies will clear out from W-E as the front moves across the area through this morning. Winds will become nwly and increase behind the front. Nwly winds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts expected around/after sunrise through early eve. Winds should abate after sunset, remaining light through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Mon, although some patchy early morning sub-VFR fog is possible Sun and Mon mornings.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.