textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A wedge front will remain quasi-stationary over the western portions of NC today. A strong cold front will overtake it as it moves east of the Appalachians and across central NC tonight. Yet another, reinforcing cold front will move across the region on Sunday, followed by chilly high pressure that will settle across the Southeast through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 218 AM Saturday...

* Rain and fog in the Triad this morning, Showers this afternoon.

* Unseasonably warm and windy elsewhere, with a chance of showers and isolated storms central this afternoon into the early evening.

* High shear/low CAPE environment, can not rule out an isolated damaging wind gust over the Piedmont through this afternoon and early evening, over the Piedmont.

A wedge boundary remains in place over the NW Piedmont early today. It is essentially stationary and should remain so through the morning. Several waves of energy aloft will move NE a top the boundary allowing for widespread rain, mist, and fog on the NW or cool side of the boundary. This is where the most rainfall will occur today including the areas from north of Charlotte through the Triad to Henderson. Most of the rain will remain west and north of the Triangle Area through the period today, but some light showers are possible this morning.

This afternoon, we will continue watching the possibility of a stronger MCV (upper level energy) that may track NE along the aforementioned wedge boundary early to mid afternoon. Rainfall may be enhanced in the Piedmont, with a potential line of low topped convection developing along the boundary - then moving ENE into the northern Piedmont this afternoon. This area will have to be watched given the increasing shear and low level instability. The latter of which remains marginal, but enough to warrant a low end potential for some strong to locally damaging wind gusts along any line. Showers will still be possible as the front drifts in the central and eastern areas late this afternoon and evening, but the wind shear will exit NE and the low level instability will wane quickly toward dusk.

Highs today should reach their peak toward the end of the day in the west (with all the rain there), but reach peak by 3-4 PM east of the boundary where the SW winds will be strong and gusty this afternoon. Expect highs in the 60s NW to 70s SE.

SW winds in the central and east will be windy at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Skies will gradually clear off later tonight with winds becoming NW at 5-15 mph behind the front. Prefer the warmer lows with the typically lagging CAA in the central and east. Lows 40s west and lower to mid 50s east.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 215 AM Saturday...

Windy and sharply colder and drier Sunday.

Clear and cold Sunday night, with diminishing wind.

A secondary cold front will push through the region dry on Sunday. Expect gusty WNW winds at 15-25 mph and much drier and chillier air. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph will be commonplace with a few gusts to 40 mph, especially in the NW.

Highs in the 40s NW to 50s east will occur in the morning, with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon.

It will be mainly clear and cold Sunday night with lows in the 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 100 AM Saturday...

*Dry for the first half of the week, uncertain precipitation chances second half of the week

*Below normal temperatures throughout the week

Behind the pair of cold fronts this weekend, high pressure will build across the Southeast Monday and Tuesday. Forecast confidence remains low for the second half of the week. There is uncertainty as to where/when a coastal low will develop along the Atlantic coastline Wednesday into Thursday, and eventually how much moisture will be available along an arriving cold front with a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes. While the precipitation chance will be minimal Wednesday and Wednesday night, the most likely timing for any precipitation will be Thursday. There is still the potential that precipitation could end as a few flurries Thursday night, but precipitation amounts should be minimal. High pressure will build back in for Friday.

Temperatures will be below normal throughout the week - highs will be near 50 on Monday, in the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday, then primarily in the 40s on Thursday and Friday. After another night with below freezing temperatures Monday night, there should be some brief moderation Tuesday and Wednesday nights before lows fall back into the 20s everywhere Thursday night.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 238 AM Saturday...

Southerly flow off the Atlantic will continue to bring in low-level moisture and another good chance of fog and low stratus to central NC tonight into Saturday morning. IFR and MVFR ceilings persist at INT and GSO respectively, and ceilings there will lower to LIFR over the next few hours, staying there through the morning. Periods of rain will persist in the Triad through the afternoon with associated IFR/MVFR visibilities. Meanwhile VFR conditions will persist at the eastern TAF sites (RDU/FAY/RWI) this evening before IFR/LIFR ceilings return overnight by around 09z-12z. Areas of fog (locally dense) also can't be ruled out anywhere in the late overnight and early morning hours. Ceilings will lift to MVFR at the eastern TAF sites in the early afternoon hours on Saturday, then VFR by mid to late afternoon. Low ceilings will persist longer in the Triad but may lift to MVFR by late afternoon. Scattered showers will spread east to RDU by mid to late afternoon, and an isolated storm with a damaging wind gust can't be ruled out. Even outside of any showers/storms, SW winds will increase everywhere today, gusting to 25-30 kts in the afternoon (less so at INT where the wedge will inhibit mixing somewhat).

Outlook: A strong cold front will bring rain and embedded showers Sat into early Sun, with associated sub-VFR conditions, gusty winds of 25-30+ kt from the SW Sat and NW Sun, and possible mechanical turbulence. VFR should return midday Sun and continue through Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

January 10:

KRDU: 75/1930 KFAY: 79/1930

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

January 10: KGSO: 58/1937 KFAY: 59/1937

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.