textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* The Freeze Watch for the northern and western Piedmont has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight.

* A Frost Advisory has been issued elsewhere for tonight.

* A Freeze Watch has been issued for all areas Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 135 AM Friday...

1) A reinforcing cold front will move through the region tonight. Ahead of it this afternoon and evening, expect some gusty winds and a few light showers.

2) A Freeze Warning has been issued for the western and northern Piedmont tonight, with a Frost Advisory elsewhere.

3) A Freeze Watch has been issued for all counties for Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 135 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A reinforcing cold front will move through the region tonight. Ahead of it this afternoon and evening, expect some gusty winds and a few light showers.

Another cold front will move through the region Friday night which will bring additional cold and dry air after Thursday's front. Ahead of the fropa, a shortwave trough looks to move through the region this evening. This should allow for a few light showers Friday evening/night. The most favored location for any rain looks to be east of the US-1 corridor, but not everywhere in this area will receive rain. Precipitation amounts should generally just be a trace to a few hundredths. Gusty winds will be possible again this afternoon ahead of the front, with northwesterly gusts up to about 20 mph possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Freeze Warning has been issued for the western and northern Piedmont tonight, with a Frost Advisory elsewhere.

The Freeze Watch previously issued has been upgraded to a Warning for tonight. This will include most of the Piedmont. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Warning area. The only exception will be in the urban areas where lows will be a few degrees warmer. Regardless, most areas will see their first 32 degree reading in the Warning area. There will be some lingering cirrus in the lee of the mountains for a time tonight. However, most models suggest that the skies will clear between 03z and 06z leading to better potential. In addition, winds are expected to become light after 06z, with good radiational cooling. Therefore, scattered frost can be expected in the rest of the region as lows dip into the mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 3)... A Freeze Watch has been issued for all counties for Saturday night.

The lows on Saturday night are expected to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Thus, a widespread freeze is expected. Generally clear skies and light wind with frost points (dew points) in the 20s will lead to a fairly long duration freeze for most areas. With the winds going to light (less than 6 mph) very good radiational cooling will lead to at least scattered frost as well. So, the double whammy of a freeze and frost will definitely end the growing season.

In addition, expect the cold high pressure to continue to extend into the region into mid-week. This will lead to well below normal temperatures in the 25-32 range at night and generally 50-55 during the day. A gradual moderating trend is expected by Thursday and Friday as highs return to the mid to upper 60s with lows in the mid to upper 30s by late week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1235 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Late this evening into early tonight there will be another chance of a few light rain showers, mainly from the Triangle to the northeast. Currently, it is still too early to tell if any rain will impact a TAF site, but no restrictions are expected if so. Otherwise, only some mid and upper level ceilings are expected. The main hazard today will be gusty winds. This afternoon into the evening expect northwesterly gusts up to around 15-20 kts, with a chance of some infrequent higher gusts.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ007>011- 021>026-038>040. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ027-028- 041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.