textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 150 PM Sunday...

* Thursday is trending drier with increased chances Saturday and Sunday for precipitation.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 150 PM Sunday...

1) Above-average temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected mid to late week. Rain is likely Wednesday, followed by increasing uncertainty Friday into the weekend as a wedge pattern may allow periods of rain and snow, with the greatest chance for wintry precipitation near the VA/NC border.

DISCUSSION

As of 150 PM Sunday...

Key Message 1: Above-average temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

As a warm front lifts north late Monday night, surface high pressure over the Southeast will promote south to southwest flow across the region on Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to run around 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the low 60s across the north to the mid and upper 60s across the south. This marks the first period of above-normal temperatures since early to mid January (Jan 4-11 and Jan 22-23). A cold front will begin to move across the region Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 50s/low 60s across the north and mid/upper 60s in the south. Overnight lows will remain well above freezing, with lows Tuesday night in the low 40s north to mid/upper 40s in the south. Depending on the timing of the cold front passing through Wednesday, lows are expected to range from the low 30s north to mid 30s south.

Key Message 2: Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected mid to late week. Rain is likely Wednesday, followed by increasing uncertainty Friday into the weekend as a wedge pattern may allow periods of rain and snow, with the greatest chance for wintry precipitation near the VA/NC border.

Several shortwave disturbances will move across the region mid to late week, resulting in multiple rounds of precipitation. The first occurs Wednesday, when temperatures in the 60s will support all liquid precipitation. Recent model runs have delayed the second wave slightly, with much of Thursday now expected to remain dry.

Forecast uncertainty increases Friday as a low pressure system tracks across the southern Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast, while surface high pressure builds over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and wedges southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians late week into the weekend. Temperatures will be below freezing Friday morning, allowing for a rain/snow mix at onset. Daytime temperatures rising into the 40s to near 50 across southern areas should support a changeover to all rain Friday.

The strength and persistence of the wedge will be critical Friday night into Saturday morning, as temperatures may fall below freezing across much of central NC, resulting in another period of rain/snow mix, with a greater likelihood of snow near the VA/NC border. As the surface high shifts northeast and the parent low continues across the Gulf states, another surge of moisture is expected Sunday. With temperatures remaining just above freezing, rain will be the dominant precipitation type, though a few flakes cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1245 PM Sunday...

TAF period: Mid-level moisture continues to spread across central NC, but the near surface air has been to dry for any snow to reach the ground. The chances of any impacts remain too low for mention in the latest TAF. Ceilings will generally scatter this evening, with just some mid-level moisture streaming across the south through early Monday. Light and variable winds slowly becoming more southerly on Monday.

Outlook: VFR weather is forecast through the week. Cannot rule out some low cloud across the west early Tuesday or restrictions in showers from Wednesday onward with multiple weak systems moving through the area.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.