textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 600 AM Monday...

* High confidence in multiple days of record or near-record high temperatures through late week.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 600 AM Monday...

1) Dry weather and near-record heat will maintain fire weather concerns through much of the week. SPC has portions of the Piedmont in the Elevated risk (level 1 of 3) for today and Tuesday. The threat appears low enough to preclude an increased fire danger statement today - after coordination with the NCFS.

2) Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 600 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather and near-record heat will maintain fire weather concerns through much of the week. SPC has portions of the Piedmont in the Elevated risk (level 1 of 3) for today and Tuesday. The threat appears low enough to preclude an increased fire danger statement today - after coordination with the NCFS.

For today and Tuesday, even though SPC has portions of the region in the elevated level for fire weather today, the return flow from the S-SW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph and the minimum relative humidities in the 30-35 range are a bit too marginal for statements. Coordination with the NCFS left it up to the meterologist's decision due to these marginal conditions. Therefore, we decided to highlight the mid to late week period for increasing hazards for fire weather and behavior give the expected 90s for highs and continued drying. The winds and relative humidities do seem that they will remain marginal and not get out of hand.

Dry conditions will persist across the region as minimum RH values drop into the 2535% range this week, particularly Thursday into the weekend ahead of the next frontal passage. While the pressure gradient remains relatively relaxedlimiting peak wind gusts to the 1520 mph rangethe lack of significant moisture recovery is notable. Although the forecast combination of humidity and wind is expected to remain just below official "Increased Fire Danger" criteria, elevated concerns will persist until a wetting rain occurs. With no meaningful precipitation on the horizon, a statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of NC until further notice with all burning, including with previously-issued permits, is prohibited.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record temperatures expected Tuesday through Saturday.

As the surface high offshore continues to influence the Mid-Atlantic region with warm south/southwesterly flow through the week expect temperatures to climb into the low 90s by Wednesday. Expect temperatures to continue to be 20-25 degrees above normal through the rest of the week with near record breaking temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected at all 3 climate sites (GSO/RDU/FAY) each day through the end of the week. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday with highs in the low to mid 90s everywhere. (see climate section below for list of climate records)

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 600 AM Monday...

Generally VFR conditions are favored with high confidence through 12z Tuesday. South to southwest winds around 10 knots will veer to the SW, strengthen, and become gusty to around 20-23 knots today.

Outlook: VFR conditions will be favored this week, during an extended period of warm and dry swly flow, around a continental- sourced area of high pressure that will become anchored near Bermuda.

CLIMATE

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922

April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.