textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased Fire Danger will probably result throughout cntl NC on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM Tuesday...

1) Increased Fire Danger will probably result throughout cntl NC on Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near normal into early next week. Generally dry through Friday night, with the next chance of rain over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger will probably result throughout cntl NC on Wednesday.

A shortwave trough in nwly flow aloft will progress from the nrn Plains this morning to the Middle Atlantic and offshore Wed and early Wed night. At the surface, an accompanying frontal wave will track across and offshore the Middle Atlantic late Wed and Wed night, with a trailing, outflow re-inforced frontal zone that will move across the cntl and srn Virginias Wed and into the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC by early Wed night. While a related band of altocumulus may produce a few very light showers across nrn zones during the late afternoon and evening, a deeply-mixed and dry boundary and sub-cloud layer will favor mostly virga - like on Mon. It will otherwise be unseasonably warm (low-mid 80s F temps), very dry (upr teens to 25% RH), and breezy (wswly 10-20 mph with gusts in the 20s mph) ahead of the front and across cntl NC Wed. Those meteorological conditions will be supportive of Increased Fire Danger, which has already been preliminarily coordinated with NCFS and which will be further coordinated and probably finalized later today.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near normal into early next week. Generally dry through Friday night, with the next chance of rain over the weekend.

Aloft, the ridge will move slowly ewd to over the East Coast where it will flatten out over the weekend as a s/w disturbance moves ewd across the region. At the surface, a backdoor cold front may approach from the northeast Fri/Fri night, but should stay northeast of the area as a low tracks across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic. As the low shifts offshore over the weekend, the front may sink swd into the area, with cool nely flow in its wake. However, there are some differences amongst the available guidance with the fropa timing and strength of the high ridging in behind it that contribute to the forecast uncertainty for Saturday onward. Another low pressure system may develop to the west early next week, but there is too much uncertainty to say with any confidence how long the ridge will hold and when/if the system will make it into the area. The weather should largely remain dry through Friday night. There is still a chance for some rain over the weekend with the s/w passage, but timing and amounts remain uncertain. There could be another chance for rain Mon night/Tue depending how the next system evolves. Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday, with a return to near normal on Sun.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 145 AM Tuesday...

Canadian high pressure and dry, continental air will progress across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic with associated light and variable surface winds and high probability of VFR conditions over cntl NC through the 06Z TAF period.

Outlook: Marginal LLWS will be possible mainly over the Piedmont Wed morning, followed by gusty wswly surface winds with daytime heating and ahead of a moisture-starved cold front Wed. That front and a related band of VFR, altocumulus may result in light, VFR rain/showers near and north of RWI late Wed afternoon and evening. Moisture and a stronger frontal system will approach and provide a chance of rain and flight restrictions on Sat.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007-008. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ009>011- 021>028-038>043-076.