textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 205 PM Monday...

* Minimal changes to expected rainfall event Thu/Thu night, although some models are trending toward a weaker/faster system, which would mean lower total rainfall in central NC and a slightly earlier rain arrival.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 205 PM Monday...

1) Wind gusts up to 20-25 mph are possible Wed.

2) Chance of showers mainly Thu/Thu night as low pressure tracks along a frontal zone through NC. Thunder chances are low.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Wind gusts up to 20-25 mph are possible Wed.

Surface high pressure will push eastward off the Southeast coast and FL late Tue through Tue night, setting up a blustery flow from the SW over central NC for Wed as a warm front lifts northward into the area. Gusts in our area are most likely to top out at 20-25 mph, however the NBM does give a 10% chance for gusts over 30 mph Wed, while the EPS output suggests even higher probabilities (60-80%) of 30+ mph gusts over portions of central NC. Such gusts would not be particularly hazardous overall, but may cause outdoor objects to be blown around and may present difficulties for those drying high- profile vehicles.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers mainly Thu/Thu night as low pressure tracks along a frontal zone through NC. Thunder chances are low.

A warm frontal zone lifting into the area early Wed is expected to settle across NC or VA as surface low pressure tracks from OK/N TX eastward along the front. As this low approaches, southwesterly low level flow will increasingly draw Gulf-source moisture into NC starting late Wed night. Aloft, a broad mid level shortwave trough dropping into the Upper Midwest late Tue will track E over the Great Lakes region Wed through Thu. Incoming mid level DPVA and upper divergence combined with low level moist upglide and high PWs (up to 250%-300% of normal) support a period of likely to categorical pops. Earlier model runs had a slower and stronger shortwave trough and, as a result, had a longer duration of more moderate rainfall Thu into Fri. Some newer model runs, however, are trending toward a weaker and slightly faster Great Lakes wave, so we may see precip arriving sooner (Wed night) and peaking late Thu into Thu night before exiting our SE early Fri. Storm total rainfall is expected to generally range from a quarter inch to two-thirds of an inch, highest in the NW (Triad) where a little urban street flooding may occur if the rain comes down heavy enough. Temps will be generally mild, esp lows, with clouds yielding a smaller-than-usual diurnal range. Even behind this system, there will be no Arctic air available, thus daily average temps will continue above normal through the weekend, warmest Sat/Sun.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1200 PM Monday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Although mid-level clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon, particularly at RDU/RWI/FAY, the clouds will decrease in coverage this evening. The primary concern will be the wind, with northwest wind 10-15 kt sustained and 22-27 kt gusts this afternoon into this evening. While all TAFs show gusts coming to an end late this evening, there is some model guidance that indicates gusts in the teens could continue overnight, although the gusts would not be as strong as they were last night.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions will continue Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and Wednesday. Cig/vis restrictions could reach INT/GSO as early as Wednesday night, with other terminals dropping on Thursday. Rain is likely in all locations with restrictions Thursday and Thursday night with more scattered coverage of rain Friday. Dry VFR conditions are forecast Friday night and Saturday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.