textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Updated Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 155 PM Saturday...

1) Heat advisory conditions possible once again Sunday mainly from the Triangle south and eastward.

2) Svr tstm risks today and Sunday - damaging wind gusts the primary threat both days. -Today: Marginal south and east of Raleigh. -Sunday: Slt risk from the Triangle north and eastward and marginal elsewhere across central NC.

3) Temperatures should fall back closer to normal to start the week, increasing back well above normal by Thursday. Best widespread rain chances come Friday with a frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

As of 155 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Despite a weak boundary having moved through, the airmass hasn't really substantially changed and won't until a more potent cold front moves across central NC early Monday. That said, look for temps on Sunday to be very similar to today, as esp noted by the experimental heat risk maps (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk) showing little or no change from today to tomorrow, with level 3 and some level 4 heat risk from the Triangle region south and eastward. That's where we have today's heat advisory in effect, so odds look good for another heat advisory for Sunday for the same locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

- Today's SVR storm chances: Guidance continues to suggest widely scattered showers/tstms are possible primarily east of I-95 today along and invof both the weak front that moved through earlier today and the sea breeze. Despite the lack of notable deep layer shear, ML cape is abundant (primary east of the front) and coupled with elevated dcape and noted boundaries nearby, can't rule out an isold gusty pulse tstm. However, as the day progresses, it looks like the best instability may end up being pinned to our far SE zones.

- Sunday's SVR storm chances: The combination of abundant heat, moisture, and resulting instability, coupled with increases deep layer shear with mid-level flow increasing ahead of a trough deepening to our north, along with presence of the Piedmont trough and/or the dissipating/retreating boundary that moved through today, both of which will provide a convergent focus, there continues to be a risk for isold to scattered strong to svr storms on Sunday across central NC, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. Storm may begin to fire up as early as 2 PM Sunday, then remaining possible through the the rest of the day. In addition to more local/climo boundaries providing a focus, we'll also be monitoring for the possibility of a pre-frontal band of convection (pre-frontal associated with the cold front to our west that's progged to move across early Monday) that may evolve well to our west during the afternoon Sunday and then move across central NC during the evening hours. Either way, there are plenty of features that could support isold to scattered strong to svr storms with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures should fall back closer to normal to start the week, increasing back well above normal by Thursday. Best widespread rain chances come Friday with a frontal passage.

After the cold frontal passage Sunday night/Monday morning, cooler and drier air will move into the region. This should allow for high temperatures to drop into the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday, and further drop into the 80s everywhere on Tuesday. The front looks to stall to our south on Monday on Tuesday, with a few models suggesting that a weak low pressure system will form off of the front and move to our south and east. This may allow for a few showers with a few embedded thunderstorms in our southeast Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should then warm each day with overall low rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, however a few isolated showers/thunderstorms cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Highs look to generally return to the lower 90s by Wednesday, and back into the mid-to-upper 90s on Thursday. Rain chances will increase Friday as a cold front looks to move through the region, however model differences are still large in the timing and location of the front. Despite the differences in timing, ensemble guidance is showing probabilities of about 50-60% for greater than 0.25 inch of rain from this frontal passage.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 800 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions outside of convection should prevail through this evening. Showers and storms continue to develop with the nnwwd migrating sea breeze, stretching roughly from Sanford to Smithfield to Rocky Mount as of 2340Z. KRWI and possibly KRDU may still get a shower/storm during the next few hours, while KFAY has been worked over already. Where showers/storms occurred today, some low stratus and reduced vsbys are possible, most likely at KFAY, possibly as far north and east as KRWI and KRDU depending on the convective activity in the next few hours. High confidence showers and storms will develop again Sun aft/eve, though exactly where and if/when they may impact a specific terminal is less certain. Expect the usual restrictions to accompany the convection, with gusts of 25- 40 kts, possibly higher.

Outlook: Convection should continue through the evening Sunday, though coverage and intensity should wane with loss of heating. A cold front should move across central NC Sun night/Mon, winds shifting from swly to nwly in its wake. While diurnally driven convection will be possible at all terminals Tue-Thu, best chances will be in the south and east Tue/Wed and northwest on Thu. Overnight into early morning sub-VFR cigs and mist cannot be ruled out around any terminals that receive substantial rainfall from afternoon convection.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.