textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No appreciable changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 310 PM Friday...

1) A transition to cooler, wetter weather is expected this weekend as a cold front moves through, with periods of rain continuing through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A transition to cooler, wetter weather is expected this weekend as a cold front moves through, with periods of rain continuing through Sunday.

Saturday morning, a cold front will approach the region and slowly move through during the day before stalling to our south. This will likely allow for a large range in maximum temperatures for tomorrow, with the forecast ranging from the low 70s in the north to the mid 80s in the south. During the afternoon, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms look to develop mostly in the southern half of the region ahead of and along the front. Another area of rain looks to develop behind the front to our north. This rain however looks like it should remain to our north according to latest CAM guidance.

As the front stalls to our south Saturday night, cool high pressure should build in. This may result in a CAD wedge to set up over the region. During the day on Sunday, the front looks like it could retrograde north, back into central NC. These two things should combine to allow for a more widespread and steadier rain to develop Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. Most model and ensemble guidance is suggesting between 1-2.5 inches of rain between Saturday morning and Monday morning, with the highest amounts in the southeast. Some models are also showing signals of a few locations with higher rainfall totals where heavier rain could develop, mostly in the south near the frontal boundary.

A reinforcing cold front will move through the region on Monday. This should eliminate any rain chances for the rest of the week as cool and dry high pressure builds back in. High temperatures to start the work week should generally be in the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s, with Tuesday looking to be the coolest day. Lows look to drop into the 40s Tuesday night as well.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 150 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Wly-swly winds, with some gusts into the teens, expected this aft, decreasing after sunset and becoming variable late tonight. Scattered 3-5 kft clouds expected through the aft/eve, with increasing mid/high clouds spreading across the area overnight. Still expect some IFR/LIFR stratus and perhaps sub-VFR vsbys to develop at KFAY, KRWI, and possibly KRDU, around daybreak. A cold front will settle south across central NC from early Sat morn through Sat aft, with winds shifting to nely with the fropa, then increasing to 5-10 kts with gusts into the upper teens/low 20s kts possible (most likely at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU) a couple/few hours behind the initial wind shift. At KINT and KGSO, MVFR/IFR stratus is expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm will be possible at KFAY and KRDU from around mid-day onward, while light rain/drizzle will be possible at KINT and KGSO.

Outlook: Widespread adverse aviation conditions in clouds and rain with associated sub-VFR restrictions are expected across the entire region into Sunday night. A drier air mass will build into the region on Monday with a return to fair weather and VFR conditions expected for the second half of Monday through mid week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.