textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Little to no changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 1244 PM Friday...

1) Hot weather with low to middle 90s Sunday through Wednesday

2) A signal for showers and storms late next week, but overall confidence is low

DISCUSSION

As of 1244 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot weather with low to middle 90s Sunday through Wednesday

Anomalous ridging extending west into southeast US is forecast to be in place from Sunday through at least Wednesday. Ensemble and probabilistic data continue to show a high likelihood (70-percent and greater) of high temperatures at or above 90 degrees during this stretch. Low-level thicknesses will rise to values typical for late July, supportive of low to middle 90s, warmest in the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills. The Heat Risk category reaches a Moderate (level 2 of 4) threshold during this time with dewpoints mixing out into the 50s at times in the afternoon. As we saw in April during the two heat wave events, early season heat can result in a rapid rise in heat-related illnesses due to people being less accustomed to these conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A signal for showers and storms late next week, but overall confidence is low

The long-range LREF ensemble and corresponding deterministic scenarios continue to indicate that the anomalous ridge extending into the area my gradually lose its influence. The consensus supports a gradual trend of height falls in association with troughing across the west gradually shifting east. As that may happen, a slowly approaching cold front is forecast to slide east from the OH/TN valley region. That front, if it were to approach as guidance suggests, should favor increased shower and storm chances to close out next week, largely in the late Wed to Fri period. The LREF and ECMWF AI ensemble show many members indicating increasingly wet weather Wed onward. But as we see so often during the summer, the global ensembles lack the high-resolution of the CAMs to resolve convection, making forecasts of expected rainfall highly uncertain. Precipitable water values from the LREF reach 1.5 inches, on the upper-end for this time of year, certainly favorable if we can get frontal convergence. Whether the front actually moves through or stalls out over the area is highly uncertain at this point. For now, expect an uptick in storm chances late next week, along with gradually lower highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1244 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Little to no aviation concerns through mid day Saturday. FEW/SCT high clouds resulting from decaying convection over Indiana will overspread the area late tonight but otherwise expect clear skies. Light NW winds gradually backing to S through the period.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are forecast into next week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.