textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Models trending drier for the mid to late week system.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Expect a dry and quiet start to the week. Minimum relative humidity will drop to 20-30% this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.

2) Models are trending drier during the Wednesday-Thursday period with very limited to no impacts from snow.

3) Prolonged Cold Pattern to begin late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Expect a dry and quiet start to the week. Minimum relative humidity will drop to 20-30% this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.

Surface high pressure over the region will shift south Tuesday. Resultant southerly return flow will yield a warming trend with cool seasonable cool temps today and tonight rising to several degrees above normal on Tuesday.

Minimum relative humidity will drop to 20-30% this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. While fuels are dry, light winds should mitigate the risk of rapid fire spread.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Models are trending drier during the Wednesday- Thursday period with very limited to no impacts from snow.

The mid week forecast has trended drier as a dampening southern stream trough ejects across the SE US Wednesday. While the deepest moisture and lift will likely remain south and east of the area, southeastern counties could see a glancing shot of light rain during the day Wednesday, with a secondary window for light rain area-wide Wednesday evening and Wednesday night as a northern stream cold front crosses the area. Rainfall amounts will be light and largely negligible(less than a tenth of an inch), providing little to no relief for ongoing and worsening drought conditions.

For Thursday, models have trended towards a less amplified and more northerly track of the trailing upper level low. This northward shift effectively keeps the deeper moisture and stronger lift to the north. Consequently, the potential for a transition to accumulating snow has diminished to near zero with little to no impacts expected for central NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Prolonged cold pattern starting late week.

A shift to below-normal temperatures is expected to begin late this week as a highly amplified upper level pattern develops. Persistent troughing east of the Rockies will likely maintain this colder than average pattern through the remainder of the month.

With the cold air in place, periodic shortwave troughs diving through region that will lead to the reinforcement/reloading of the long wave trough may provide sufficient lift and moisture to support occasional chances for light wintry precip. However, specific details regarding timing and precipitation types remain uncertain at this extended time range.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected through 18z Tuesday. Winds will remain light from the SW.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions should continue through Wednesday, with bulk of precipitation remaining south and east of the area as weak low pressure remains off the SE US coast. A northern stream cold front crossing the region late Wednesday into early Thursday may support some light rain and a brief period of sub-VFR restrictions, along with blustery NW wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt.

Drier conditions return Friday and Saturday with VFR prevailing.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.