textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 716 PM Saturday...

* Increased Fire Danger statement issued for Sunday due to a combination of low relative humidity values and very dry fuels. A state-wide fire ban is also in place issued earlier today by the NC Forest Service. Outdoor burning is prohibited.

* Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 147 PM Saturday...

1) Increased fire danger remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. There may be a fire danger risk on Sunday.

2) Widespread freezing conditions tonight-Sun morning, with a hard freeze (ie. <28F) probable in typically colder, rural locations.

3) Increasing temperatures through mid-week ahead of the next frontal system wavering through the region through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 147 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. There may be a fire danger risk on Sunday.

The increased fire danger remains in effect until 8 pm this evening for all of central NC. Relative humidity values will hover in the lower 20s over the western Piedmont and middle to upper 20s over the remainder of the area until early evening. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph will gradually diminish by the early evening hours. Good relative humidity recovery is expected tonight, allowing the fire danger statement to expire.

Tomorrow, relative humidity values will remain quite low, actually lower than today, in the upper teens in the western Piedmont to the mid to upper 20s elsewhere. However, wind gusts will only be in the 10-20 mph range, highest across the west, and developing late in the day as return flow gradually returns. As such, a fire danger statement may not be needed. But we will be reaching out to NCFS regarding any potential statements, especially given the antecedent dry conditions. More to follow later.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread freezing conditions tonight-Sun morning, with a hard freeze (ie. < 28F) probable in typically colder, rural locations.

No appreciable changes were made to the going forecast for tonight's lows across central NC. Cold high pressure will settle across the lower Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina tonight and early Sunday. The low-level thickness forecast to be in place are supportive of widespread lower 30s, with a few locations in the typical cooler spots of upper 20s of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The NBM probability of 32 or lower is highest over the western Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, with only about a 10-20 percent chance over the Triangle and Triad. Our going forecast matches quite well with anticipated lows from the statistical guidance so no major changes were made. Areas of frost are likely, particularly with any lingering moisture/wetness from the rain.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Increasing temperatures through mid-week ahead of the next frontal system wavering through the region through the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast, southerly surface winds should return by Monday and continue through mid-week. This will allow temperatures to return to about 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Wednesday. In terms of high temperatures, this is seen by a return to the 70s on Monday, increasing to the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Lows during this timeframe will return to the mid 50s to low 60s. A frontal system looks to approach and waiver over the region from Wednesday through the weekend. This means that temperatures from Thursday through Saturday are expected to be cooler than previous days, but the timing and location of the front each day will allow for some uncertainty in the temperature forecast. Currently, the front looks to bisect our area on Thursday, which would lead to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s north, to upper 70s to low 80s south.

In terms of precipitation, each day Wednesday through Saturday will have a chance of rain as the frontal boundary approaches the region and then looks to waiver through the region before another front will approach the region early next week. Rainfall is expected to overall be light each day, with 50th percentiles of the GEFS and European ensemble showing generally less than 1.5 inches of rain total through Saturday night. However, the GEPS is suggesting that over 2 inches of rain will be possible near the NC/VA border.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 145 AM Sunday...

Canadian high pressure and associated very dry air will favor VFR conditions through tonight. A band of VFR stratocumulus may develop from the coast to the Piedmont this afternoon through tonight, coincident with an area of lift and moistening centered around 850 mb/~5000 ft AGL. Otherwise, initially calm to light ely/sely surface winds this morning will modestly strengthen and veer to sly through this afternoon, with some mid-late afternoon gustiness into the teens kts possible mainly over the wrn Piedmont (INT/GSO).

Outlook: Return flow moisture, around what will be a persistent, Bermuda high regime through the upcoming week, will favor a chance of sub-VFR ceilings especially over the wrn Piedmont by mid-week. Lift and rain chances will otherwise be low.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.