textproduct: Raleigh
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Nothing significant.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 1245 PM Sunday...
1) High pressure will allow for a continued period of dry weather with near or slightly below temperatures this week.
DISCUSSION
As of 1245 PM Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will allow for a continued period of dry weather with near or slightly below temperatures this week.
Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs show a 1038mb surface ridge over western Pennsylvania, with ridging extending southward into North Carolina. A deepening area of low pressure resides off the coast, located along the stalled cold front that has brought significantly cooler temperatures to much of the East Coast. As the low has deepened, this has tightened the pressure gradient across central NC with most/if not all observing sites reporting gusty northeasterly winds around 20kts.
The overall synoptic setup this week will feature surface and upper level high pressure in control of the weather across central NC. The offshore low will maintain a relatively tight pressure gradient across the area through mid week, yielding afternoon breeziness out of the north, but little in the way of other sensible weather impacts. Temps each afternoon will be within a few degrees of normal for mid/late October, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Meanwhile, morning lows should generally fall into the 40s. Frost should not be a concern this week given a few kts of wind lingering through the overnight hours, although it would not be surprising if some of the normally cooler spots in the western Piedmont saw temps reach the upper 30s tonight and again Monday night.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 PM Sunday...
VFR weather through at least Monday afternoon, with occasional late morning through late afternoon northerly breeziness. There could be a period later tonight after the BL stabilizes where a period of northeasterly LLWS develops, as some of the higher res guidance is showing winds around 30-35kts around 2kft. High confidence that winds will increase noticeably with height, but just how strong remains to be seen and I'll keep LLWS out of the TAFs for now.
Outlook: Continued VFR weather expected through the end of the week.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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