textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for central NC on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

1) Increased Fire Danger present in central North Carolina on Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will be above normal into the weekend, before dropping to near normal into the next week. The forecast is dry through Friday night, with a chance of rain by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger present in central North Carolina on Wednesday.

A surface low will move across the Great Lakes today, and the associated fronts will remain to the north of the region tomorrow. However, a surface trough will move across Virginia and North Carolina Wednesday afternoon, bringing a slight wind shift, an increase in wind gusts, and a band of clouds along the VA/NC border. Considering how dry the air will be in the lowest mile of the atmosphere, do not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. However, with mixing up to 700 mb, gusts as high as 25 mph, and afternoon relative humidity values as low as 20%, combined with already dry fuels from the ongoing drought, this will result in increased fire danger across all of central North Carolina. A statement has been issued after coordination with the North Carolina Fire Service. Once the trough moves through the region, the wind will slacken, lowering the threat of fires due to weather conditions for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will be above normal into the weekend, before dropping to near normal into the next week. The forecast is dry through Friday night, with a chance of rain by the weekend.

High pressure will dominate the Southeast on Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, another surface low will move across the Great Lakes, bringing a chance of rain to much of the East Coast. One opportunity for rain will come Saturday into Saturday night, while another front is expected to approach from the west on Tuesday. There are still differences with models in the timing and amounts of rainfall. Each of these systems could bring up to a quarter inch of rain to the area, but this will do little to overcome the long-term rainfall deficit.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 800 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the next 24 hours. Light southerly winds tonight will shift to southwesterly after sunrise tomorrow, gusting to 15 to 25 kts. There is an outside chance for marginal low-level wind shear across the north tonight, but the jet doesn't look strong enough to put LLWS in the TAFs at this time. Scattered to few high clouds tonight will give way to mainly clear skies tomorrow morning, before a band of mid and high clouds moves in from the north in the late afternoon and evening. Virga and/or very light rain will be possible around and north of RWI tomorrow afternoon, but no restrictions are expected.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are generally expected to persist through the work week. The next best chance for rain and associated restrictions returns on Saturday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.