textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 100 PM Saturday...

* Cannot rule out a few snow flurries or brief light snow Sunday across our northern zones. No accumulation expected

KEY MESSAGES

As of 100 PM Saturday...

1) The Wind Advisory will expire at 7 PM this evening, followed by a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of the Sandhills and Coastal Plain

2) Cannot rule out a few snow flurries or brief light snow Sunday across our northern zones. No accumulation expected

3) Above-average temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday

4) An unsettled pattern is expected mid to late week, bringing increasing precipitation chances and a potential for a wintry mix on Friday

DISCUSSION

As of 100 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The Wind Advisory will expire at 7 PM this evening, followed by a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of the Sandhills and Coastal Plain

The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM this evening for a majority of central NC, excluding the southern Piedmont and much of the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. So far, wind gusts have definitely met criteria over much of the advisory area today. Our highest gusts have ranged in the 40 to 50 mph range, with the strongest gusts in the Triad. These strong NW wind gusts will gradually slack off late this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts in the 15 to 30 mph range may persist into early evening, but diminish by late tonight and overnight. With those weaker gusts tonight, wind chills in the 5 to 10 degree range are forecast overnight into mid-morning Sunday as low tumble into the mid to upper teens. Cannot rule out some areas in the NE getting into the lower teens under cold high pressure and generally clear skies prior to sunrise. The Cold Weather Advisory will remain in effect for a portion of the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cannot rule out a few snow flurries or brief light snow Sunday across our northern zones. No accumulation expected

A mid-level system will track through Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon. Most of this energy will generate mainly just lots of mid and high cloudiness for the day on Sunday. However, model guidance is showing a decent band of mid-level FGEN and isentropic lift in the 700-500 mb layer that tracks southeast over the northern tier counties of central NC. With the airmass being certainly well below freezing over the depth of the atmosphere, anything that falls would be of snow origin. However, forecast soundings are very dry in the lowest layers of the atmosphere. Despite this dryness, some of the 12z HREF members and RAP soundings indicate saturation could extend as far down as 2-3 kft above the surface. If that were to occur, some of the snow could survive before drying out aloft and lead to some snow flurries or light snow for a brief period Sunday. The main time frame for this would be between 10 am and 2 pm Sunday. We are still skeptical that anything could reach the ground in the very dry airmass, but certainly cannot rule it out. At worst, a light dusting could occur over the Triad, northern Piedmont, and northern Triangle. Outside of that, no snow accumulation is currently anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Above-average temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday

As a warm front lifts north late Monday night, surface high pressure over the Southeast will promote south to southeast flow across the region on Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to run around 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the low 60s across the north to the mid and upper 60s across the south. This marks the first period of above-normal temperatures since early to mid January (Jan 411 and Jan 2223). Overnight lows will generally remain above freezing, with lows Tuesday night in the 40s and Wednesday night in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 4... An unsettled pattern is expected mid to late week, bringing increasing precipitation chances and a potential for a wintry mix on Friday

Several shortwave disturbances will move across the region mid to late week, resulting in multiple rounds of precipitation. The first chance arrives Wednesday, when temperatures in the 60s will support all liquid precipitation. Another round associated with a cold front will move in Thursday afternoon into the evening, with temperatures gradually falling as a cooler airmass filters in behind the front. Showers are expected to persist into Friday morning, with a rain/snow mix possible, mainly across the northern half of the CWA. A weak area of low pressure lifting north from the south on Saturday may bring isolated light showers, with temperatures generally remaining above freezing.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1236 PM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions persist this afternoon with gusts starting to trickle downward (still gusting in the upper 20s to lower 30s). Winds will continue to gradually weaken through the day although some degree of gustiness will linger through the overnight period.

New high-res guidance this morning is hinting at the potential for light snow at KINT/KGSO/KRDU mid Sunday morning for a few hours. It's not quite clear if these light snow showers will reach the towers/ground given a considerable dry layer near the surface. However, some guidance shows less dryness in the lower levels. Think if it occurs, best chances would be at KINT/KGSO between ~14 and 17Z. Little impacts other than some reduction in visibility would be expected with this precip.

Outlook: Generally VFR weather forecast for much of the upcoming week. A series of weak waves will sweep through the area Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in increased cloud cover but otherwise limited aviation impacts.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>043-073>077. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-085-086-088-089.