textproduct: Raleigh
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Confidence in the rain chance on Sunday is low.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 135 PM Monday...
1) Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The first day of November could bring some rain.
DISCUSSION
As of 135 PM Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and seasonable weather continues through the week. The first day of November could bring some rain.
A continued stretch of dry and quiet weather is expected through the end of October. High pressure ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern. Daily high temperatures each day are forecast to hover in the 70s through the period. The warmest days are expected Thursday through Saturday, where some locales could rise to around 80 degrees, especially on Friday across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain.
Rain chances could arrives as early as the start of November, during the period Sunday into Monday. Models and ensembles appear to showing the remnants of tropical storm Vance, presently out over the tropical Pacific, reaching the TN valley and southeast US early next week. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty with respect to rainfall amounts, if any. The machine learning guidance is much drier, showing a flatter quasi-zonal shortwave tracking through, while some GEFS/GFS members are wetter with a more developed wave of low pressure. At this stage, confidence in expected rain early next week is low. If this trends dry, the next best chance would have to wait until late next week.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 135 PM Monday...
VFR conditions should generally prevail for most, if not all, of the 24 hour TAF period. Overall light northerly winds are expected through the day, potentially becoming calm overnight. This could allow for a few areas of patchy, light fog to develop tonight, however confidence is low on whether or not this will happen. If any fog does develop, the most likely site to be impacted will be RWI.
Outlook: Another chance for low stratus/fog looks to come Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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