textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor PoP adjustments for this weekend, otherwise no major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 245 PM Friday...

1) Unsettled wx pattern this weekend, potentially wet at times later Saturday.

2) Mainly dry with temps closer to seasonable values much of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM Friday...

1) Unsettled wx pattern this weekend, potentially wet at times later Saturday.

An upper short wave trough currently moving across the Miss Valley will lift NE across the TN Valley tomorrow and exit off the Mid- Atlantic coast by mid-day Sunday. In response, we'll see several opportunities for showers and tstms through early Sunday, the first of which being widely scattered showers and tstms the rest of today, a few of which could include an isolated strong or possibly damaging wind gust (see SWODY1 for additional details).

Saturday, particularly later in the day and early night, appears to be the most unsettled part of the weekend as the trough approaches and begins moving across. While a shower/tstm will be possible any time Saturday, the most likely time and best coverage will likely be late in the day from mid-afternoon hours through the late evening hours. It's worth noting that central NC is included in the Days 1 and 2 ERO, so any of the heavier downpours could results in isold flooding of the typical spots that are more sensitive to heavy downpours, such as urban and low-lying areas.

While the bulk of the prefrontal shower/tstm activity should be to our east by daybreak Sunday morning, we can't rule out a few additional showers or tstms assoc with the actual frontal passage which will occur later Sunday, thus the reason for the ongoing elevated PoPs Sunday afternoon; however, coverage and intensity should be much less compared to the previous day.

2) Mainly dry with temps closer to seasonable values much of next week.

Most of next week will be dry thanks to an upper ridge that will be positioned to our west much of the time and resulting dry northerly flow. In addition, the airmass... while still a few deg above normal... will at least be closer to normal with highs each day generally in the 80s. It's worth noting that a closed upper trough, broken off from a larger-scale trough moving off the Northeast states early next week, will drift south parallel to the East Coast. Today's NWP models forecast it to remain far enough offshore so that our only impact from it will be occasional gusty NE winds at times during the mid-week period.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 800 PM Friday...

VFR will largely prevail across central NC through this evening, with mostly mid and high clouds. Isolated showers and storms have developed across mainly far northern and far southern parts of the region, along with a developing cluster near RDU. Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible with any storm, but other than what is currently happening around RDU, the chances of a storm directly impacting a terminal are low.

Overnight tonight after about 06z, low stratus will begin to spread into central NC from north to south, with all terminals likely to experience IFR conditions. A period of LIFR is even possible around daybreak, along with patchy MVFR/IFR visibilities. VFR will return to most areas by midday on Saturday, but MVFR may linger into early afternoon around the Triad. Showers and storms are then expected to develop in the afternoon across the region, and they should be more widespread compared to today. Brief gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any storms.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Saturday evening as a cold front makes its way through central NC. Low stratus and/or fog may develop and cause sub-VFR restrictions again on Sunday and Monday mornings as well.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.