textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will move north into the region late tonight into Friday. A cold front will then sweep across central NC Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 353 AM Friday...

Weak mid-level impulses and isentropic upglide continue to generate scattered light rain across central NC this morning. Mostly trace to a few hundreds of an inch of rain have been observed thus far. However, a band of steadier rain is quickly approaching the Triad this morning and should likely squeeze out a bit more (a few hundreds to maybe a few tenths) as it moves across the western to central Piedmont and Coastal Plain through late this morning. Expect a relative lull in rain through much of this afternoon and early evening. By later tonight, weak mid-level impulses and increasing WAA should trigger additional light rain primarily along the NC/VA border early before filling in further south through sunrise Saturday morning. A few tenths of an inch of rain are expected Friday night through 12Z Saturday.

Dense fog has developed just outside the southwestern Piedmont down in SC this morning. Latest guidance has backed off advecting this dense fog up into our southern Piedmont (cloud cover is pretty extensive here as well). As such, think the fog chances may be more limited than previously expected but can't fully rule it out. Otherwise expect high temperatures in the lower 60s (NE) to lower 70s (SW). Overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 are expected.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 354 AM Friday...

A potent short-wave and associated mid-level height falls will move over central NC late Saturday afternoon and evening. Forcing from this feature will trigger pre-frontal showers and storms across central NC Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lingering light rain via weak mid-level impulses will likely be ongoing along and east of US-1 early Saturday. This initial band will move east of central NC through mid to late morning. Dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected by afternoon, while temperatures reach into the mid to upper 70s. If destabilization can occur, models are hinting at upwards of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing across areas south and east of Raleigh Saturday afternoon. Given the expected upper forcing, there is a good chance for a band of showers and scattered storms to slide down from VA and move ese across central NC through Saturday evening. Shear parameters are pretty potent, with bulk-layer shear of ~60 kts expected Saturday afternoon. While simulated hodographs are largely straight amongst models, the latest HREF does indicate some weak clustering of mid-level helicity swaths in the Sandhills/Coastal Plain. All in all, think the overall severe potential is low, but if any stronger storm can develop there is plenty of strong kinematics to work with and thus can't rule an isolated stronger/organized storm (primary concern would be hail if anything at all).

Any lingering showers/storms should sweep south of our area by Saturday night. A sfc cold front will then sweep across the area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning drying things out. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s are expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 100 PM Thursday...

A cold front will move across the region Saturday bringing scattered showers with a few isolated storms in the afternoon. While PoPs are generally only between 20-30% there is still a good chance of precip anywhere across central NC as the front moves through the region, it will be more isolated to scattered coverage category. The timing of the front will really determine how much CAPE can get into the region, where right now models are showing low end CAPE of only a couple hundred J/kgs in the afternoon. By late afternoon early evening the front should sweep through the region with cool dry high pressure filtering in behind. Temperatures Saturday ahead of the front will be 15-20 degrees above average with highs in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday will be a bit cooler as high northerly flow and high pressure builds into the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with lows in the low 40s. A few cooler spots could drop into the upper 30s. High pressure will slide east/northeast Monday with temperatures trending warmer with highs int eh mid to upper 60s and low in the mid to upper 40s.

On Tuesday a low pressure system over the mid MS valley and TN valley will continue east with a warm front stretching east across the southern Mid-Atlantic region. The warm front is expected to lift north late Tuesday bringing another chance of precip to the area with the best chance late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. As the low shifts east into New England and another low develops in Ontario Canada, the associated cold fronts swing across the US which are expected to move into the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday and the other one sometime on Thursday. The models are showing these front to be mainly dry but will keep an eye on any moisture development. Depending on the timing of the fronts, temperatures will trend cooler mid to late week for Thanksgiving. Highs Wed will be mid 60s to mid 70s and Thursday will be mid 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 143 AM Thursday...

Largely VFR conditions continue across central NC early this morning, although MVFR ceilings have arrived at KFAY recently. Expect conditions to deteriorate at all TAF sites near sunrise as deeper low-level moisture (and some light rain) move across central NC through Friday afternoon. Fog and reduced visibilities are also likely at KINT/KGSO and KRWI later this morning. Any lingering sub- VFR ceilings/fog should lift by Friday evening. Additional light rain showers will be possible Friday night.

Outlook: Additional rounds of light rain and low-level cloudiness will be possible Friday night into Saturday. A front will sag into central NC on Saturday, continuing the chance for unsettled weather with perhaps a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The front will clear south of our area Sunday, with dry VFR weather returning early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.