textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* None at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 240 PM Saturday...

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in cloudiness are expected this weekend.

2) Forecast confidence is high in unseasonably mild temperatures next week but low regarding amounts with the next chance of rain late in the week (favored Thu-Fri).

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in cloudiness are expected this weekend.

Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of a pair of mid and upper level disturbances (one currently over the lower MS Valley and another over the Southern Plains) is resulting in broken to overcast mid and high clouds overspreading central NC from the south and west this afternoon. This will continue through tomorrow, but no rain is expected given a dry and stable air mass in the lower levels.

High temperatures this weekend will be near normal, generally mid-to- upper-60s today and a couple degrees warmer than that tomorrow. Temperatures for trick-or-treating this evening will be mostly in the mid-50s to mid-60s. While low-level thicknesses will be lower tonight, the effect will be somewhat offset by the increased cloud cover, so bumped up forecast lows on Sunday morning a tad to mid-40s to 50. Monday morning's lows should again be similar, perhaps a degree or two warmer.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast confidence is high in unseasonably mild temperatures next week but low regarding amounts with the next chance of rain late in the week (favored Thu-Fri).

There remains considerable model spread and forecast uncertainty regarding episodes of stream interaction and phasing of the flow upstream of a mid-level ridge that will otherwise remain and redevelop just offshore the srn Middle Atlantic coast for most of next week. There is good model consensus that the ridge will weaken and drift to near and east of Bermuda by the end of the week, which should allow for perturbed, cyclonic flow to progress ewd and across cntl NC by Fri. Although the geometry of the cyclonic flow is less certain, there remains a consistent signal in model guidance for the stronger height falls to "lift" and pass to the north and west of cntl NC at least through Sat.

At the surface, the most dominant and highest predictability feature will be a ridge, related a 1034 mb Canadian high now centered over the lwr Great Lakes, which will extend across the Middle Atlantic through the middle of next week. Similar uncertainty regarding the evolution of the trough aloft noted above exists with the strength and timing of passage of the accompanying surface frontal zone, probably through cntl NC on or around Friday based on recent model guidance. While the probability of rain will increase ahead of that front by Thu, then maximize with its passage, rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain; and the prospects for a soaking rain area- wide are in doubt.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 740 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period, with bkn to ovc mid and high clouds through the period. Calm to light nely winds tonight, increasing to 5-10 kts during the day Sun. Still expect dry weather to prevail at all terminals through Sun.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the upcoming work week with a small chance of some stratus/fog on Wednesday morning and a better chance on Thursday morning. There is also a chance of light rain in the west on Wednesday and areawide on Thursday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.