textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Heat Advisories possible across much of the region Thursday.

* Continued increasing chance of showers/storms (wet period expected) Thursday afternoon into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 110 AM Wednesday...

1) Heat shifts a bit south today, with Heat Advisories for Fayetteville to Clinton.

2) Another heat advisory appears likely - and extending north into the Piedmont Thursday (the last in this series of high heat and humidity).

3) High chances of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Daily highs will be tempered (mostly 80s Friday and Saturday).

DISCUSSION

As of 110 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat shifts a bit south today, with Heat Advisories for Fayetteville to Clinton. Another heat advisory appear likely - and extending north into the Piedmont Thursday (the last in this series of high heat and humidity).

Dew points mixed into the 60s over much of the Piedmont Tuesday. This aided in keeping the heat indices below 100 for the most part, expect in the SE.

Weak high pressure over western NC today will lead to additional mixing today with a light NW flow over much of our region. The hottest temperatures will be found over the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain this afternoon, well south of the Triad and Triangle Areas. Fayetteville and Clinton should top out around 95 to 97, with heat indices up to 106 in the Clinton area. As previously mentioned, Fayetteville and Cumberland County will be in the Heat Advisory area even with the heat index expected to fall a bit short of 105 degrees. It is the experimental HeatRisk product that continued to depict a level 4 of 4 in that region extending into portions of Sampson County. Elsewhere, it appears that highs will be in the 90- 95 range, with heat index values mostly in the 90s (near 100 across the far southern and eastern Piedmont into the Coastal Plain).

Key message 2... One more day in the 90s with potential heat index values of 100 to 110 expected Thursday from NW to SE. There is a chance of PM storms, especially late day into the evening Thursday.

However, the heat is expected to be tamped down by increasing cloudiness Friday into portions of the weekend, with a much better chance of showers/storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High chances of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Daily highs will be tempered (mostly 80s Friday and Saturday).

Models continue to highlight Friday into Saturday for showers and thunderstorms associated with the approaching trough from the west and very high PW values. A few models suggest late Thursday into Thursday evening may become active with thunderstorms as well over portions of hte area. Some localized flooding is possible, especially in the central and east.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 150 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will mostly prevail across central NC through the next 24 hours. The one exception tonight is the northern Coastal Plain (including RWI), where some patchy fog and very low stratus are possible given all the rain that fell there yesterday. RWI is already reporting LIFR visibilities, and winds have gone calm there, so more fog is possible there until sunrise when it should quickly dissipate. Other than a slight chance of showers and storms along the sea breeze in the southern Coastal Plain, much of the area will be dry and VFR during the day Wednesday. Winds will be light (5 kts or less) and out of the N/NE through this morning, turning more NW in the afternoon.

Outlook: A more active pattern is expected as early as Thurs afternoon, but especially Thurs night through at least Sat. Convection is likely to become more widespread during this time, diurnally maximized in the afternoon/evening, and may have a tendency to linger into the early overnight hours at times. Additionally, brief, moist northeasterly flow may also bring more persistent sub-VFR cigs as well, especially on Fri into Fri night.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940 August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005 August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005 August 22: KFAY: 75/2018

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT for NCZ088-089.