textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 210 PM Friday...

* No major changes

KEY MESSAGES

As of 210 PM Friday...

1) Fire weather concerns will continue due to dry weather, near record heat, and worsening drought conditions.

2) Near record warm temperatures possible Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 210 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Fire weather concerns will continue due to dry weather, near record heat, and worsening drought conditions.

Except for some rain along a front this past Sunday, there has been very little rainfall across central North Carolina recently. Right now, it appears that the most likely chance for rain in the next seven days would be along a front Saturday afternoon/evening, and there isn't even enough confidence to specifically add a 20% mention of showers to the forecast at this time. Some high-resolution models are showing the potential for some showers, primarily to the north of US-64. Every day in the forecast, the minimum relative humidity value across the area is forecast to drop into the 25-40% range. While wind gusts shouldn't be higher than 10-15 mph on Saturday and Sunday, wind gusts will increase to 10-20 mph each afternoon next week. Although the combination of RH and wind values will not reach official "increased fire danger" or "red flag warning" criteria, fire weather concerns will remain until a wetting rain occurs, which does not appear to be on the horizon. A burn ban remains across the entire state of North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record warm temperatures possible Tuesday through Friday.

Temperatures are forecast to be above average every period through the next seven days, but it is not until Tuesday that the forecast should begin to flirt with record warmth. Through the forecast, all record highs at our three climate sites are in the 90s except for upper 80s at GSO/RDU on Monday and GSO on Thursday. The first day in the forecast where any location in the area reaches 90 degrees is Tuesday, and many locations will likely experience multiple days of 90 degree heat, weather that is typical in July and August, not April. NWS Experimental Heat Risk reaches Level 2/Moderate/Orange by Tue/Wed, and with the first 90 degree forecasts of the year, people who are sensitive to the heat should be prepared.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 145 PM Friday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions across central NC through the 24-hour TAF period, with only a few thin high clouds at times. Winds will be largely from the S/SW today, then veer to a northerly direction tomorrow, remaining less than 7 kts during the day and mostly calm at night.

Outlook: VFR should prevail most of Sat and Sun, though a backdoor cold front moving through Sat night could bring sub-VFR stratus over the Piedmont early Sun. VFR and dry weather are expected Mon through Wed.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 11: KFAY: 90/2001

April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.