textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 AM Friday...

1) A wavy frontal zone will buckle northward Saturday and again on Monday, but rainfall amounts appear limited through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A wavy frontal zone will buckle northward Saturday and again on Monday, but rainfall amounts appear limited through the middle of next week.

A high-latitude omega-blocking pattern will prevail through the forecast period with a highly anomalous and persistent mid/upper-lvl ridge extending into central Canada which will be bookended by a pair of mid/upper-lvl lows over CA and the Canadian maritimes. This stagnant pattern will favor a series of shortwaves to lock-in mean troughing over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and push several reinforcing cold fronts into the area potentially through Tues.

The quasi-stationary boundary is expected to buckle northward a bit on Sat but will likely remain well south of central NC. Deep layer moisture will however be on the rise as the remnants of a mid-lvl shear axis lifts atop this boundary and into the Carolinas. This will likely support mostly increased cloud cover and very light rain and/or virga as forcing for ascent will likely be disjointed. Some moisture pooling ahead of the approaching cold frontal passage may support some scattered showers and isolated storms, but widespread deep convection appears unlikely.

Some shallow moisture return ahead of yet another cold front appears possible on Mon as an area of surface high pressure shifts off the Carolina Coast and may result in isolated to scattered showers, but confidence is low. An added complication highlighted in deterministic guidance suggests a weak disturbance ejecting underneath the high-latitude omega block may bring increasing cloud coverage as well as some virga and very light rain Mon morning. Better chances for showers will likely be over the upslope terrain in western NC with orographic forcing overcoming meager instability. Localized enhancements to convective coverage appear possible along the track of any storm-scale MCVs, but predictability on these meso- gamma to meso-beta features is nearly impossible with any degree of confidence at this time range.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 620 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Skies will continue to clear overall this morning as high pressure noses in from the north, resulting in drier northeasterly flow today. Winds will briefly return to southwesterly this evening before another backdoor cold front and northeasterly flow return Saturday. Showers will be possible Saturday morning but most likely after 12Z.

Outlook: There will be a chance for sub-VFR conditions in the south on Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front moves north, bringing a chance of rain and potentially sub-VFR ceilings. Additional restrictions may be possible Monday with another cold frontal passage.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.