textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Negligible changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 258 PM Thursday...

1) Increasingly hot, but with low humidity and no rain through Sunday. Convection will be possible ahead of a cold front Sunday night, with possible isolated convection through middle of next week as well.

DISCUSSION

As of 257 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly hot, but with low humidity and no rain through Sunday. Convection will be possible ahead of a cold front Sunday night, with possible isolated convection through middle of next week as well.

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted a mid-level low spinning off the NC coast downstream of an anomalous ridge that extends north into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures have largely reached the mid to upper 80s, with dew points mixing out into the lower 40s. Quite weather expected again tonight with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s.

The center of the anomalous mid-level ridge will shift over the eastern US Friday into the weekend while high pressure at the sfc shifts offshore. Increasing sly flow along with downslope warming will promote increasing temperatures Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will push the mid 90s Friday and Saturday but residual wnwly flow aloft and low PWAT should allow decent mixing out of dew points each afternoon. By Sunday, guidance is suggesting temps could peak near record levels in the upper 90s to around 100. Moisture should return a bit on Sunday as well, and as such heat concerns will return (the experimental HeatRisk shows areas of Moderate to Major levels for much of central NC). All groups should practice heat safety this weekend and into early next week.

Guidance continues to be in good agreement sending a cold front through central NC late Sunday into Monday. Beyond Monday morning, however, guidance differs. The GFS/GEFS builds a stronger high behind the front and maintains drier/cooler temps through mid to late next week. Conversely, the euro turns flow sly quicker and allows some warmer temps to develop during the same period. Following a similar trend, the EURO/ENS promotes afternoon convection each day through mid to late next week. The GEFS/GFS support drier conditions through this period. Both global model sets highlight at least some convection ahead of the approaching front Sunday night into Monday, but QPF is quite low.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 145 PM Thursday...

High pressure anchored over the region will result in VFR conditions with light and variable surface winds expected through Friday afternoon.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will settle into cntl NC with an associated chance of showers/storms late Sun into Mon.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.