textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 110 AM Wednesday...

* No significant changes to the forecast. Dry into Friday with a warming trend.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 110 AM Wednesday...

1) A strong cold front will move across the region late Friday and Friday night.

2) Windy and turning colder Saturday behind Friday's cold front. Frost/freeze conditions possible Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

As of 110 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front could move across the region Friday into Friday night.

Aloft, a trough will amplify over the East Coast Thu night through Sat as s/w disturbances track ewd across the Great Lakes/OH Valley, gradually pushing the ridge to the southwest. At the surface, a lee trough will develop Thu night, and remain in place until the cold front, approaching from the NW, moves into and across the area Fri/Fri night. Canadian high pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front over the weekend as it moves ewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic.

Showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible with the fropa. Based off forecast soundings from the GFS, SBCAPE of less than 300 J/Kg, with 6km Bulk Shear around 40 kts are expected, with PWATs peaking around 1.5". The front will likely be the primary forcing mechanism, so expect best chance of storms along and ahead of the front. However, as mentioned in the previous discussion, a remnant EML over the High Plains could provide a cap and prevent any deep convection from developing, as boundary layer moisture lacks Gulf moisture influence. Regardless, winds will be breezy/gusty Fri/Fri night, with swly winds gusting to around 25 mph ahead of the front becoming nly and remaining gusty behind it.

Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to low 60s expected, while highs Fri should range from low 80s north to upper 80s south.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Windy and turning colder Saturday behind Friday's cold front. Frost/freeze conditions possible Sunday morning.

Behind the front late Friday, high pressure will move from the northern Plains east to over the Carolinas by Sunday morning. While doing so, look for an increased pressure gradient and windy conditions behind the front Friday night into early Saturday. The wind will diminish by late Saturday as the pressure gradient begins to relax. The other notable item will be the colder airmass that will move into the area. Highs Saturday could be as much as 30 degrees colder than the previous day (upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday). Sunday morning lows could fall to the mid 30s, which under clear skies and light wind, we could see some frost that morning as well.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 620 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hrs at central NC terminals, with high confidence. Scattered to broken layers of mostly high cloudiness will continue to pass over the area, with mostly thin cloudiness today.

Looking beyond 12z/Thu, VFR conditions are likely to hold into Fri, then an approaching cold front will bring a chance for sub-VFR conditions and shower chances from late Fri into early Sat morning. VFR conditions should then return for late Sat through Sun.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 27: KGSO: 86/1921 KRDU: 87/2007 KFAY: 87/1946

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007 KFAY: 65/1949

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.