textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No major changes with the early morning forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 125 AM Tuesday...

1) Seasonable and drier conditions persist through Wed night with unseasonably hot weather returning late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 125 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable and drier conditions persist through Wed night with unseasonably hot weather returning late week into the weekend.

A few days of near zero rain chances is expected as a highly anomalous and potentially record breaking mid/upper lvl subtropical ridge (+2.5 to 3 standardized height anomalies from 850 to 200mb Tues through Thurs night) builds over the TN Valley and southern Appalachians; perhaps even reaching 600 dam at H5 by Wed. Thankfully, strong convergence aloft on the backside of a shortwave to our northeast will favor building high pressure over the Northeast and ridging down into the Carolinas into Wednesday, supporting a brief dip down to seasonable temperatures (not-as-hot). However, this will not last as surface ridging begins to weaken over the western Atlantic and bring a moderating trend back to 10-15 degrees above normal into the weekend.

NWP ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement in the development of a an area of mid/upper-lvl low pressure developing off the Southeast coast, sliding west underneath the subtropical ridge and then stalling somewhere near the northern Gulf coast this weekend. As is typically the case with cutoff lows, forecast uncertainty is high on their evolution and when they will be picked up by any approaching troughs, but it does appear this feature may play a role in bringing more widespread precipitation chances to the area next week.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Overcast low-VFR cigs over the Triad terminals and nearby scattered sprinkles are expected to gradually clear through late morning. Brief gustiness around 15 kts is possible for a couple hours after sunrise as diurnal mixing quickly taps into flow just off the surface. Light northeast flow persists through the remainder of the daylight hours before most locations go calm Tues night into Wed morning.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic and favor prevailing VFR conditions in cntl NC for at least the next several days. The only exception to VFR will be a chance of shallow, ground fog at RWI due to local effects Wed through Fri morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.