textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 300 PM Monday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement issued for the western Piedmont and Sandhills.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 PM Monday...

1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week.

2) Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week.

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30 days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the elevated drought conditions. While the combination of RH and wind will not reach typical IFD criteria today or through this week, given the anomalously dry fuels and near-record heat, the NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with their current state-wide burn ban. As such, an IFD has been issued for the western Piedmont/Sandhills for the rest of today where gusts will be strongest. An additional IFD for the same footprint will be likely issued this evening for Tuesday. A possible expansion eastward to the coast may be needed from Wednesday through the end of the week, but further details to come.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday through Saturday.

Subtropical ridging will persist over the Southeast US for much of the period from Tuesday through Saturday. At the surface, a Bermuda High will bring warm southwesterly flow to central NC during this time. 1000-850 mb thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and forecast maximum and minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day. Tuesday's forecast highs are in the upper-80s with mostly lower-90s each day after that, which is around 20 degrees above normal. Some mid-90s will even be possible on Saturday, which looks to be the hottest day. For reference, this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more details. Forecast lows are also quite mild, in the lower-to-mid-60s, which is 10-20 degrees above normal. Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points bottoming out in the lower- to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some upper-40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4 degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 145 PM Monday...

High confidence of mainly VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in generally fair weather with periods of high and mid cloudiness through 18Z Tuesday. A south to southwesterly flow around the high pressure system will continue through the period. Gusty south to southwest winds this afternoon at 8 to 14kts with gusts of 18 to 24 hours this afternoon will become southwest at 6 to 10kts tonight. Southwest winds will pick back up on Tuesday at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 16 to 20 kts.

Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected into the first part of the weekend as warm air circulates around high pressure just off the Southeast coast. -Blaes

CLIMATE

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922 KFAY: 92/1916

April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

April 19: KFAY: 94/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.