textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Updated Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 320 AM Monday...

1) A frontal system will bring the chance for rain across the area today.

2) A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

3) Hot and dry weather returns this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 320 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal system will bring the chance for rain across the area today.

Aloft, a s/w, within the base of the longwave trough will progress ewd across the region through tonight. At the surface, a cold front will drop swd into the area this morning. The front progression may slow/stall briefly this aft as an area of low pressure develops along it invof the SC/NC border, with the front continuing swd out of the area as the low shifts ewd and off the Carolina coast. High pressure will build in behind the front this eve and strengthen over the area tonight before shifting offshore on Tue.

Precipitation: Highest chances for rain will be along the NC/VA border behind the front from late morn through the aft. Closer to the coast and depending on the timing of the front, showers and perhaps a storm or two will be possible as a low developing along the front near the NC/SC border shifts ewd and offshore this aft. The best chance for any strong to severe storms will be in proximity to this low (where forcing and instability will be maximized), which is still expected to remain south of central NC, but could clip far srn Sampson county if the front is slower than anticipated.

Temperatures: Highs today will greatly depend on the front and precipitation, with a gradient of 10-15 degrees from N-S across the area. For now, have highs in the mid 60s across the north and upr 70s across the south. Lows tonight in the mid 40s north to around 50 degrees south expected. Even with the fropa, the drier air may stay north of the NC/VA border tonight, with temps falling to/near the dewpoint temp overnight. Where the anafrontal rain does occur across the north this aft, some potentially dense fog will be possible late tonight/early Tue morn.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A weak cold front is expected to bring a chance of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The moisture and instability again are forecast to be lacking. Thus, there is little expectation of widespread or significant rainfall. QPF of less than 0.25 is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Hot and dry weather returns this weekend into next week.

Much warmer or even hot weather is expected by next weekend when highs should reach well into the 80s and lower 90s in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain Saturday and Sunday. The heat is due to an expanding mid-level ridge over the region next weekend. This ridge and the heat may very well last well into the 8-14 day period.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 645 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Any lingering sub-VFR conditions invof KFAY and KRWI should return to VFR in the next hour or so. A cold front will continue swd across the area this morning, with winds becoming nly- nely and increasing behind the front. Gusts of 15-25kts are expected in its wake. Additionally, while there is still some uncertainty wrt the precipitation, an area of light rain with perhaps an embedded shower or two is expected to move ewd, generally along the NC/VA border, most likely impacting KINT, KGSO, possibly stretching as far south and east as KRDU and KRWI this afternoon. MVFR cigs may accompany the rain, creeping swd toward/into the nrn terminals this aft/eve. Farther south, showers could impact KFAY, but may remain to the south. Precipitation should clear out to the east this evening, with cloud cover and winds also decreasing later this eve/tonight. Fog is expected across the north early Tue morn, mainly where rain occurs this aft/eve and where skies clear and winds go calm. The highest likelihood of occurrence is at KINT/KGSO.

Outlook: Additional flight restrictions and rain are expected with the passage of another frontal system Wed into Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.