textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 141 PM Saturday...

* No significant changes to the weekend storm system, with continued high confidence in a soaking rainfall of 0.75 to 1.25 inches. Any flooding should be very, very minor or localized if at all. CAD over the Piedmont will keep temperatures in the 40s (even some lower probabilities of some upper 30s in the NW Triad region) Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 141 PM Saturday...

1) Confidence remains high in widespread and beneficial rainfall this weekend, mainly Sunday into Sunday night.

2) Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through Friday with mostly dry weather this week.

DISCUSSION

As of 141 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence remains high in widespread and beneficial rainfall this weekend, mainly Sunday into Sunday night.

The next weather maker is still expected to arrive Sunday morning as the mid/upper level trough currently over the Southern Plains progressively moves rather quickly east into the lower MS Valley 12z/Sunday, reaching the western Carolinas by 00z/Monday, then shifting offshore by 12z/Monday. High pressure will move off the coast late tonight with an excellent return flow from the Gulf and Atlantic into the system as it approaches Sunday. The forecast of the surface low pressure track essentially remains the same, from southern AL/GA around 00z/Monday NE off the NC coast between 06z and 12z/Monday. Hybrid CAD is expected over the Piedmont with the widespread rain and NE flow. We did lower the temperatures in the CAD region (temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 40s Sunday) - with the standard NBM being on the higher side of the guidance. Readings should approach or reach 60 in the SE before the rain arrives by early afternoon creating a climatological CAD temperature pattern / gradient by late day.

Rain is expected to develop/overspread the Piedmont between daybreak and late morning, spreading east over most of the region Sunday afternoon. QFP is expected to range generally between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, with most guidance indicating around 1 inch.

This widespread rain will be beneficial to the ongoing drought. It appears the rainfall rates will be low enough to preclude mention of flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through Friday with mostly dry weather this week.

After the exit of the rain early Monday, a period of mostly dry and above normal temperatures will return as surface high pressure moves across the area. This will allow for temperatures to warm each day, potentially reaching the low 70s in the south by Wednesday afternoon and potentially reaching the 70s in the whole region on Thursday and Friday. This is about 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period, as a pair of shortwave troughs and their associated fronts look to move through the region sometime Friday and Saturday. This should allow Saturday's temperatures to drop closer to normal, but are still currently expected to be above average. Model spread with the cold frontal passage is very high, but ensemble guidance suggests that a few showers may be possible both Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 700 PM Saturday...

An area of light to moderate rain will begin to spread into the area during the late morning into the early afternoon. There is high confidence in cigs/vsbys falling to MVFR then IFR at INT, GSO, and RDU, with less confidence but still probable at FAY/RWI before 00z Mon. A period of moderate rain is becoming more likely to persist for several hours at the Piedmont terminals when cigs/vsby are most likely to drop below 600 ft and 2 SM respectively. Marginal to moderate LLWS appears probable, but timing/magnitude is uncertain and opted to not include in the 00z TAFS at this time. For now, moderate LLWS is most probable at GSO, RDU and RWI, where northerly winds and strengthening southeasterly winds aloft may overlap for a period of time after 17z.

Outlook beyond 00z Monday: IFR to LIFR conditions with rain and fog should taper off at western terminals late Sun night, but may last to near daybreak Monday in the east. A return to VFR conditions will return throughout the day on Monday. Minimal airmass change and high pressure building overhead Monday night may promote a favorable pattern for radiation fog with widespread saturated soils.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.