textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Plenty of morning stratus/fog today.

DISCUSSION

As of 130 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... We will start the day with plenty of stratus and fog. Then, scattered PM thunderstorms today will be limited to the SE Coastal Plain.

A weak cold front has moved south through the region and will become stationary near the coast this afternoon. Plenty of low level moisture remained across central NC as the wind has become light easterly. The stratus will become rather extensive in the next few hours and is forecast to linger well into the mid to late morning. Otherwise, much drier air in the mid-levels associated with high pressure will suppress the typical afternoon thunderstorm chance over the Piedmont and much of NC. However, the weak boundary near the coast will combine with the sea breeze to produce a few thunderstorms into far SE NC. It will be a bit cooler many areas today with the morning clouds and light E flow. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High heat and humidity return quickly this week, beginning Monday and peaking Wednesday through Friday.

Strong ridging is expected to build aloft from the hot and dry southern Plains east to the Atlantic coast into Wednesday, then become nearly stationary over the TN Valley and southern Mid- Atlantic mid to late week.

This essentially means an early September heat wave with highs returning to the 90-95 range Monday and well into the 90s most areas Tue-Friday. The heat indices will likely reach 105 by Tuesday, peaking between 105 and 110 Wednesday into Friday. Heat advisories will be likely.

Other than an isolated storm or two during peak heating, expect very low POP for any storms this week. QPF will be less than 0.10 on average for the next 5 days.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 616 AM Sunday...

Plenty of low level moisture and sporadic wet grounds will lead to another round of low stratus/fog looks for most of our region through 15z today. Restrictions should lift or scatter out with daytime heating, however, some guidance does suggest a few hours of MVFR ceilings may be possible into the afternoon.

A few showers or thunderstorms may be possible in the SE this afternoon; however, confidence showers should be east of RWI and FAY.

Outlook: Looking at Monday and beyond, generally VFR except some early morning stratus/fog again Monday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

September 2: KRDU: 99/1912

September 3: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010

September 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020

September 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020

September 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.