textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will hold over the Southeast through today. A mostly dry cold front will move through the area Sunday, followed by Pacific high pressure Sunday night through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 240 AM Saturday...

* Dry, warm, and becoming breezy as a moisture-starved cold front approaches from the west.

An amplifying mid/upper level trough will dive SE out of central Canada across the Great Lakes and into the northern Mid-Atlantic, offering only glancing influence across NC.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift south and eastward across the southeastern US and northern Carribean, ahead of a moisture-starved cold front that will reach the NC mountains late tonight.

Airmass moderation will continue under low-level SWLY flow, with highs rising into the 70-75 degree and BL dewpoints increasing into the 40s. Winds will become breezy by the afternoon, with modest gusts of 15 to 20 mph. A vorticity shear axis and weak height falls overspreading the area will support periods of considerable high clouds.

Tonight, the arrival of a nocturnal ~50kt low-level jet will keep the BL well mixed, maintaining steady SWLY winds of 10 to 15 mph. Overnight lows will remain mild, in the lower to mid 50s, with the potential for orographically enhanced cirrus overspread the northern zones.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 240 AM Saturday...

*Continued warm and windy Sunday with colder air arriving Sunday night

A dry cold front will sweep across the area Sunday, followed by the arrival of Pacific high pressure Sunday night.

The primary weather concerns will be the windy conditions both ahead and immediately behind the front. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph, occasionally reaching 35 to 40 mph. Aided by downslope warming, highs will once again climb into the 70s, and may approach 80 across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain.

Behind the front, dewpoints will drops sharply during the afternoon, likely yielding afternoon RH values in the 25 to 30 percent range across much of central NC. This may lead to an increased fire danger.

Gustiness will subside Sunday evening, though CAA will keep winds stirring overnight. Lows will fall into the 35 to 40 range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 208 AM Saturday...

Key points this period...

1) Dry weather with seasonable temps Monday through Tuesday afternoon: SFC High pressure and s/w ridging aloft will set the stage for the aforementioned weather.

2) Brief opportunity for some light rain Tuesday evening: A quick- moving s/w trough passing across the Mid Atlantic region will offer a brief chance for rain mainly Tuesday evening, particularly across the northern half of central NC.

3) Mainly dry wx with above normal temps during the Wed-Thu timeframe: In the wake of Tuesday evening's s/w trough exiting the region, a ridge will quickly amplify over the eastern US Wednesday through Thursday, which should keep PoPs minimized and allow for WAA and resulting above-normal temps.

4) Increasing PoPs late Friday: The next s/w trough will lift from the central Plain newd toward the Great Lakes. In the process, a cold front will approach our region and eventually move across central NC sometime next weekend.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 600 AM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with a period of broken to overcast high clouds later this morning and into afternoon. SW surface winds will increase to 7-11 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts at times from late morning into the afternoon. Gustiness may temporary subside after sunset before increasing to 15 to 20 kts overnight as a 50 kt low-level jet moves through the area. This jet will also bring a threat for LLWS at all TAF sites tonight/early Sunday.

Outlook: Strong surface wind gusts of 25 to 30kts are expected ahead of, and especially behind, a mostly dry cold frontal passage during the day on Sun. Mostly clear skies on Sun should result in excellent mechanical mixing and result in light to moderate low- level turbulence and may result in wind gusts as high as 35 kts. The next chance of light rain and perhaps sub-VFR conditions comes on Tuesday/Tuesday night, especially north, before drying out on Wednesday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.