textproduct: Raleigh
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Little to no changes with this package.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 100 PM Thursday...
1) A prolonged period of hot weather begins this weekend and continues into much of next week with limited rain chances
DISCUSSION
As of 100 PM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A prolonged period of hot weather begins this weekend and continues into much of next week with limited rain chances
Cool high pressure builds offshore on Saturday and settles near Bermuda well into next week. This will favor a prolonged period of hot weather as anomalous ridging sets in off the SE US coast. Highs will top out in the low to perhaps middle 90s. While dewpoints are expected to rise toward seasonably moist levels next week, afternoon values will mix out into the upper 50s to lower 60s. These values should limit the overall severity of the heat, compared to the peak part of summer when dewpoints can be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Nevertheless, the Heat Risk category reaches a Moderate (level 2 of 4) threshold. As we saw in April during the two heat wave events, early season heat can result in a rapid rise in heat-related illnesses due to people being less acclimated to the temperatures.
As for rain chances, they appear pretty limited. With each successive run of the global ensembles, the chance of showers gets delayed a day or so, resulting in low confidence for our next widespread storm chances. While we cannot rule out a few isolated activity Sun and early next week, better chances for rain will have to wait until a frontal system tries to approach late Wednesday or Thursday. But even some ensemble solutions keep us dry through Fri.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1259 PM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: Post frontal nwly gusts of 15 to 25 kts continues this afternoon. Suspect these gusts will start to subside near sunset or so, but some light stirring is likely overnight. Otherwise, stratocu this afternoon will dissipate this evening and clear skies are generally expected overnight.
Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Mon, although some patchy early morning sub-VFR fog is possible Sun and Mon mornings.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941
May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911
May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022
May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018
May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022
May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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