textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 155 AM Monday...

* No significant changes from previous forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 155 AM Monday...

1) There is an increased fire danger today from 3 PM to 10 PM in areas west of I-95, due to the expected combination of very dry fuels, blustery winds, and falling humidity.

2) A strong cold front could move across the region Fri-Sat, but specifics are uncertain.

DISCUSSION

As of 155 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There is an increased fire danger today from 3 PM to 10 PM in areas west of I-95, due to the expected combination of very dry fuels, blustery winds, and falling humidity.

A strong cold front (in terms of temperature drop) will push southeastward through central NC from mid morning through mid afternoon today. With a narrow zone of above-normal PW, a dry WNW low-mid level flow yielding dry air in the low levels, and little in the way of either potential instability or substantial dynamic forcing for ascent, precip with this front still appears very limited, with only areas along and E of I-95 expected to see a brief window of isolated to scattered showers, with perhaps a storm or two mainly SE of a GSB-CTZ line. Winds just aloft will be quite strong ahead of the front early this morning, although these SW winds at 40-50 kts at 1500-2500 ft AGL will be held aloft until the onset and deepening of mixing during the mid morning. By this time, the 925-850 mb frontal zone will be shifting SE through the area, and while the winds aloft will be a bit lower behind the front, they'll still be blustery enough with deep mixing to yield surface gusts in the 20-30 mph range from mid morning well into the evening hours. As dewpoints crash post-front from NW to SE through the day, surface Rh will drop into the 25-30% range. This combination of winds and dropping RH along with very dry fine fuels (amidst an ongoing drought over the area) will bring about concerns for dangerous fire weather conditions. A fire danger statement has been issued for areas W of I-95 from mid morning through much of the evening. Any burning is highly discouraged, as any fires will be capable of quickly getting out of control and becoming very dangerous.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front could move across the region Fri-Sat, but specifics are uncertain.

A lee trough will develop Thu/Thu night, and remain in place until the cold front, approaching from the NW, moves into the area Fri/Fri night. Canadian high pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front over the weekend. Showers will be possible with the fropa, but specifics remain uncertain. There will be a significant temperature change with the front, swinging from well above normal Thu night/Fri, to below-well below normal Sat/Sat night. Highs Sat could be 15-25 degrees lower than Fri, while lows Fri night could be 10-20 degrees lower than Thu night.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 630 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are likely to hold across central NC for the next 24 hours, with periods of sct-bkn VFR clouds ahead of a cold front that will track SE through the area from mid morning through mid afternoon. More important will be the anticipated winds at the surface and aloft: First, there is a risk of low level wind shear early this morning at all central NC terminals, a result of a 40-45 kt jet from the SW at 1500-2000 ft AGL, lasting until 13z-14z. Then, with the onset of mixing by mid morning, these winds will start to mix to the ground, resulting in sustained winds of 10-15 kts gusting to 22-26 kts from late morning through at least mid evening, although gusts should start to diminish after 04z. Winds from the SW early this morning will shift to be from the WNW then NW mid morning through early afternoon, starting first with INT/GSO then shifting at RDU and finally at RWI/FAY. The chance for precipitation is minimal, and while RWI and FAY may see a brief shower this afternoon, the risk of any sub-VFR conditions is very small.

Looking beyond 12z Tue, VFR conditions will dominate through much of this week, although the chance for sub-VFR conditions in rain will increase late Fri as another cold front approaches from the N.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 23: KFAY: 86/1948

March 27: KGSO: 86/1921 KRDU: 87/2007 KFAY: 87/1946

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007 KFAY: 65/1949

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.