textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered the dew points a few degrees each afternoon from today through Wednesday given the continued dry NW flow pattern and good mixing each day.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 125 AM Monday...

1) Overall dry and increasingly warm weather through the upcoming week, with the next chance of showers not until next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 125 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Overall dry and increasingly warm weather through the upcoming week, with the next chance of showers not until next weekend.

Low pressure will slowly lift NE near the New England coast through Tuesday, as weak high pressure dives down from the Northern Plains to the OH Valley. This will result in continued dry NW flow across central NC. There will continue to be some stratocumulus/altocumulus cloudiness that may make it into the N-E portions of hte area, but the winds will be lighter than in previous days. Highs around 80 can be expected today and Tuesday, with mid 80s by Wednesday. Significant warming will continue late week as the mid/upper ridge aloft takes hold. Highs of 85-90 can be expected Thu-Fri.

A mid/upper trough will approach from the west sometime this weekend, resulting in increasing shower chances. However, significant timing differences persist between the GFS and ECMWF, with the ECMWF much slower with the trough and thus keeping us mainly dry until late Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand, brings showers into the area as early as Friday, though it continues to be an early wet outlier compared to the ensembles. We have POPs ramping up from around 20-30% on Friday to 30-40% on Saturday and 40-50% on Sunday. One last very warm day is expected on Friday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 with lows in the mid to upper-60s.

Behind a cold frontal passage on Friday night, temperatures will turn much more seasonable again over the weekend, with highs in the 70s, with some 60s when/if rain/showers arrive by Sunday in the NW.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 645 AM Monday...

Dry, VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Mid-level clouds are expected to move across the region today through this afternoon that associated with the Nor'easter that continues to hug the NE coast. Light northwesterly winds throughout the day today becoming mostly calm later this evening and overnight.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should prevail most of the upcoming week. An unsettling pattern will move into the region by late Friday with sub-VFR conditions expected through the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

September 30: KGSO: 89/1954 KRDU: 89/1954

October 1: KGSO: 90/1986 KRDU: 90/1986

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.