textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will settle south of the area this evening. High pressure will extend into the region from the north late tonight through early Tuesday, bringing colder and drier air. High pressure will then develop over the Southeast, resulting in dry and warmer weather for the middle to end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1230 PM Sunday...

* A dry cold front will move the area with chilly conditions tonight.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying dry cold front will cross the area through the afternoon. The passing trough will advect a band of orographically-enhanced cirrus, currently banked along the eastern slopes of the southern and central Appalachians, south and east across central NC. In the wake of the front, a brief period of post-frontal gustiness of 15 to 20 mph can also be expected through the afternoon.

Winds will gradually diminish this evening and tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes, with clearing progressing from NW to SE. CAA will support chilly overnight lows ranging from mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s south.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/

As of 1230 PM Sunday...

* Cool and dry Monday before increasing clouds and sprinkles Monday night as warmer air begins to return.

A 1030 mb surface high centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning will shift offshore Monday evening into Monday night as a warm front skirts north and west of the area. Monday will be the one chilly day in the upcoming holiday work week. Cirrus will begin to stream across the area by the afternoon, becoming broken across the northern counties by sunset. Highs will range from upper 40s northeast to lower/mid 50s south.

Monday night, weak mid-level perturbations embedded in the west- northwesterly flow, combined with a strengthening warm moist air regime, will result in an expanding deck of stratus and altostratus between 06 to 12z. Expect to a good bit of virga streaming across the area, with a slight chance of some very light rain or sprinkles mainly along and north-north east of the Triangle. Overnight lows will occur early in the night, before the cloud deck arrives, with temperatures gradually rising through daybreak. Precipitation type will be rain with no winter precip-type concerns. Lows will generally range from 35 to 40, with a few lower 30s possible in outlying rural areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1230 PM Sunday...

* An overall dry week with seasonably mild temperatures through the Christmas holiday.

A warm front lifts north of the region on Tue. Most of the energy tied to the system focuses up across VA, but enough isentropic ascent moisture transport in the low to mid-levels will promote a low-end chance of light rain or sprinkles, mainly across US-64 north. A look at forecast soundings, however, indicate that a very dry layer exists below 850-mb, such that most of the area may just see virga. Clouds in the morning will clear out by late-afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A stretch of very mild temperatures is still forecast Wed through Fri, including the Christmas holiday, where warm ridging over the Southern Plains to Lower MS valley will bring WAA into the region during this time. Sprinkled in this period will be a few systems passing through, namely a backdoor front Wed that lifts north as a warm front Thu. Most of the energy on Thu stays to our north such that we are again dry. Other than clouds, these systems won't impact our ability to rise into the mid/upper 60s Wed/Thu and low to maybe mid 70s Fri.

Model guidance spread increases late Fri into Sun with another possible cold front. Some guidance brings a strong front through Fri night, while other guidance stalls it off to our north before another front arrives late Sun. All this is to say that highs Sat/Sun are more tricky. Highs could range from the upper 50s to the mid 70s Sat depending on which model verifies. If this verifies on the higher end, we could get a few degrees close of record highs Fri/Sat, see climate section for that. While a few shower chances are possible late Fri and Sun with these systems, the pattern is presently not too favorable for measurable precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 640 PM Sunday...

* High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure will build into central NC from the north through Mon, as a cold front settles to our S. The result will be a dry flow from the N or NE in the low levels and from the WNW in the mid levels. A mid level tisturbance now tracking through the region is producing a deck of mid level clouds, and both will exit to the E through this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight through much of Mon. An area of mid level moisture now over IA into MO/IL will bring increasing mid clouds based aoa 12thsnd ft AGL late in the forecast period. No vsby restrictions in the next 24 hours. Surface winds will be mostly under 10 kts, from the N and NE tonight shifting to SE or SSE by late Mon.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, a few sprinkles are possible 09z-21z Tue, mainly at RDU/RWI/FAY, and brief MVFR cigs are possible. But otherwise, the risk of any sub-VFR conditions is low through Fri. There is a risk of low level wind shear Tue morning, esp across northern terminals. -GIH

CLIMATE

Record Highs 12/25 12/26 12/27 RDU 75 (1955) 75 (1889) 76 (2015) GSO 74 (2015) 75 (2015) 74 (2015) FAY 81 (2015) 79 (1955) 78 (2015)

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.