textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Timing of rain ending (late afternoon in the east).

* Temperatures will fall through the morning with the increase in rainfall.

* Any damaging or killing frost appears very unlikely due to residual breezes tonight (and temps too warm).

KEY MESSAGES

As of 225 AM Saturday...

1) Gusty north winds to 25 mph will be accompanied by rain and sharply colder temperatures falling into the 50s today.

2) Little if any frost threat tonight or Sunday night given some breeziness and cloudiness (Sunday night).

DISCUSSION

As of 225 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Gusty north winds to 25 mph will be accompanied by rain and sharply colder temperatures falling into the 50s today.

The cold front had pushed through all the region except Fayetteville and Clinton as of 200 AM. The front was not accompanied by even isolated showers. All the showers have been behind the front. This chance of showers will exist behind the front through 400 or 500 AM then rain will fill in over the western Piedmont, then spread east. This rain according to the latest guidance is favored to last through the morning in the west, and into the early to mid afternoon in the east. The higher POP (100) will be in the north and east, with 70-80 POP southwest. POP will reduce and fall off by mid to late day in the Coastal Plain.

It will be sharply colder today with temperatures likely to fall with the northerly winds 15-25 mph through the morning into the 50s. As the rain spreads into the SE sections by mid morning or so, temperatures will fall sharply there, as well.

The mid/upper trough will pivot east of the region later today allowing for subsidence drying and clearing from NW to SE this afternoon. However, some cloudiness will linger in the SE at sunset. Temps may recover a few degrees in the NW with the downslope flow and a bit of sun later.

Rainfall forecasts of 0.5 to possibly some 0.75 expected today from Raleigh NE and E to the coast, lower totals of less than 0.25 expected in the SW Piedmont.

No additional QPF after today.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Little if any frost threat tonight or Sunday night given some breeziness and cloudiness (Sunday night). No killing frost anticipated.

Even through guidance suggests some mid 30s in the colder and more calm western Piedmont later tonight with clear skies, very little frost is expected (if any). We do not expect a killing frost anywhere due to the lows 35-42 W to SE. Typically, the first real cold front of the October season does not bring a killing frost to the lower Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and Sandhills. This one seems on target for a minimal threat of a bit of light frost in spotty areas around Lexington to Asheboro and possibly Siler City and Roxboro - but not damaging. We will remove mention from the Hazards section (HWO).

Winds will continue brisk from the north to 25 to 30 mph on Sunday and possibly Monday - depending on how slow the coastal lows departure.

Regardless, slowly moderating temperatures and dry weather is expected inland NC and all of our region Monday-Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 635 AM Saturday...

TAF period: Rain is expected to develop over the Piedmont and Sandhills through 15z, then overspread central and eastern NC through the morning. Periods of rain will finally taper off between 18z and 22z in the east. Widespread IFR ceilings will develop between 12z and 15z and persist much of the afternoon. Visibilities are likely to drop to MVFR (and potentially IFR at times) with the rain, as well. VFR conditions and dry weather will return from NW to SE from mid afternoon into early evening. Northerly winds will also increase a bit further during the day, gusting up to 30 kts.

Outlook: A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean later today and tonight, which could result in several days of intermittent cloudiness and breezy conditions in the east. Confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 25-35 kt will occur Sunday, diminishing Monday or Monday night if the low moves out that quickly.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.