textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 100 AM Tuesday...

* Minimal changes were made to the forecast over the next seven days.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 100 AM Tuesday...

1) Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

2) Mainly dry conditions expected, with daily isolated to scattered shower chances returning on Wednesday, and especially Friday until a frontal passage Sunday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 100 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

While relative humidity values will be slightly higher today than yesterday, with most locations dropping to around 40% RH in the afternoon, today's forecast calls for wind gusts out of the south- southwest to be between 15 and 25 mph. The North Carolina Forest Service burn ban across the state remains in effect until further notice.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mainly dry conditions expected, with daily isolated to scattered shower chances returning on Wednesday, and especially Friday until a frontal passage Sunday night into Monday.

A weak short-wave will push across eastern Canada Wednesday while the southeast US remains under the influence of an anomalous mid- level ridge. While any stronger sfc or upper forcing should remain well to our north, isolated mountain convection will be possible amongst persistent, moist swly flow aloft Wednesday afternoon. Some of this convection could trickle into our western areas late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Additionally, isolated sea-breeze induced convection could reach our southeast Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, the anomalous mid-level ridge will re-amplify over the northeast US as the center retrogrades closer to the Carolina coast. This setup will yield increasing subsidence and lower rain chances.

The center of the ridge will then migrate further east on Friday and Saturday, but convection will largely again be focused along the mountains, possibly spilling east into our western areas each afternoon and evening.

Better chances for widespread rain and a cool down may happen Sunday into Monday as guidance is hinting at a potentially stronger cold front approaching/moving through central NC.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 100 AM Tuesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. The wind is the primary driver of this TAF issuance. While some minimal low-level wind shear cannot be ruled out through the beginning of the forecast period, it appears that 2000 ft wind should not exceed much more than 30 kt, so LLWS was not added to the TAFs. Gusts will pick up out of the southwest with daybreak, reaching as high as 20 kt. Most sites will keep a sustained wind around 8-10 kt after sunset although gusts will come to an end. Cloud cover will primarily be diurnal cumulus.

Outlook: Scattered showers will be possible at INT/GSO Wednesday afternoon and at all terminals except RWI both Friday and Saturday afternoons. The best potential for any restrictions would be Thursday morning at INT/GSO.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 1: KGSO: 90/1910 KRDU: 89/1974 KFAY: 87/2010

April 2: KGSO: 87/2010 KRDU: 90/1967 KFAY: 90/1974

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1: KGSO: 63/2016 KRDU: 67/2016 KFAY: 67/2016

April 2: KGSO: 61/1979 KRDU: 66/2024 KFAY: 66/2024

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.