textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Patchy fog possible once again Thursday morning within a similar airmass.

* Rain chances for the early part of November appear to be trending drier.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 202 PM Wednesday...

1) Patchy fog will be possible once again Thursday morning. A warmup is expected through Friday.

2) Forecast uncertainty remains high with respect to measurable rain for the start of November.

DISCUSSION

As of 202 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy fog will be possible once again Thursday morning. A warmup is expected through Friday.

Areas of fog developed earlier this morning, especially across the Triangle, portions of the Triad, and northeast Piedmont. Within a similar airmass under a moist easterly flow, patchy fog will again be possible across portions of central NC. The 12z suite of guidance is indicating the more focused area of fog across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. However, nearly all of central NC could have this threat, though at this stage it appears patchy. We will continue to monitor through the evening hours. Otherwise, low stratus will again develop, gradually lifting through the late morning and early afternoon on Thursday. Temperatures will trend warmer on Thursday and Friday, reaching the middle 70s Thursday and upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday. A backdoor cold front slides through early Saturday, dropping us back to normal for the weekend in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast uncertainty remains high with respect to measurable rain for the start of November.

Forecast uncertainty remains high with respect to rain chances for the first week of November. The 12z GFS appears to be coming in line with the drier machine-learning guidance, with the majority of precipitation staying across the Deep South Sunday and Monday. This is consistent with the trend in the ensembles as well. The 00z EPS trended drier as well, in line with the EC-AIFS, as surface ridging over the Mid-Atlantic remains anchored in place. There still do remain some wet solutions, specifically the GEFS/GEPS, leading to uncertainty on measurable rain late Sunday and Monday. For now, we lowered rain chances to 30-percent, down from 50-60 percent earlier. That trend may continue with the latest suite of guidance.

A better chance of measurable rain appears in the mid to latter part of next week, when guidance is showing a trough across the midsection of the country that may interact with a coastal low. There is still large spread at this time frame too, but this pattern appears more favorable with a better combination of moisture and lift.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 735 PM Wednesday...

High pressure with light wind will bring a chance of stratus and fog over most of central North Carolina later tonight into Thursday morning. Most of the status/fog will be in the IFR to LIFR range. The timing and lift of the fog should be around mid to late in the morning as cigs slowly lift. This should reveal VFR conditions by late morning.

Outlook: Once VFR returns Wednesday, VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. Restrictions may return Sunday into Monday with the next potential system.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.