textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 PM Tuesday...

1) Unusually hot weather returns starting Wed, lasting through the weekend, with the most dangerous heat on Thu/Fri.

2) Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unusually hot weather returns starting Wed, lasting through the weekend, with the most dangerous heat on Thu/Fri.

Today's highs, primarily in the 80s except for a few upper 70s, were the coolest high temperatures that can be expected over the next 7 days. The heat will build in on Wednesday, with most locations outside of the Triad rising into the 90s.

The warmest days of the week will be Thursday through Saturday as the mid-level ridge shifts over the region. This will allow temperatures to rise generally into the mid-to-upper 90s on Thursday, rising further into the upper 90s on Friday. The probability of maximum temperatures greater than 99 are generally about 10-30% over the eastern portions of the CWA, with a few splotches of 40-50% in the Sandhills and the Triangle. The experimental HeatRisk is showing the majority of central NC under a Major risk of heat-related impacts from Thursday through Saturday, with a few locations showing an Extreme risk of heat-related impacts in the Sandhills. This will also be made worse by above normal temperatures overnight. Lows look to remain in the low-to-mid 70s each night, allowing for little relief from daytime temperatures. However, the chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may also provide some relief from the hot afternoon temperatures each day. The ridge will start to break down some, potentially allowing a weak cold front to approach or move through the region on Saturday or Sunday. This should allow for temperatures to cool down slightly to start next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day through the weekend.

The stationary front that has been draped from northwest to southeast just to the west of the forecast area will dissipate over the next few hours. However, before that occurs, some showers and isolated thunderstorms could make their way into western counties during the afternoon, with conditions drying out after sunset. An upper level shortwave will move across the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, and this will bring another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily Wednesday afternoon.

The warm/moist airmass will remain overhead from mid-week through the weekend. A daily pattern of isolated to scattered diurnally induced showers and embedded thunderstorms looks to return to the region Thursday through the weekend. The typical summer-like pattern is currently low predictability in exactly where showers may develop each afternoon. However, rainfall amounts look to be relatively light, with the 50th percentile of the LREF showing less than 0.1 inch of rain Thursday and Friday. This weekend, forcing will increase slightly as a front looks to fall apart as it approaches the area which may allow for slightly higher rainfall totals and potentially more organized storms. The LREF is showing up to 0.15 inch of rain on Saturday and an additional 0.10 inch on Sunday. The frontal boundary looks to waver over the region into next week, allowing for continued rain chances early week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 800 PM Tuesday...

24-hour TAF period: Any showers have dissipated across the region, and dry weather and light S/SW winds (less than 7 kts) are expected for the rest of this evening into tonight. A deck of mid and high clouds will keep skies mostly overcast through the TAF period, and while conditions are currently VFR everywhere, there continues to be good confidence that MVFR stratus will at least get to FAY later tonight after 06z. A period of IFR can't be ruled out either, so added a TEMPO group at FAY for that potential. The next most likely TAF site to experience MVFR/IFR ceilings early Wednesday morning is RDU, while confidence in it occurring is lower at RWI/INT/GSO, as the RAP and NAM are more aggressive compared to the HRRR and GFS. Still, it can't be totally ruled out. Ceilings will lift to VFR by mid to late morning, when SW winds may start gusting to 15-20 kts at times. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday afternoon as an upper disturbance moves across the region. The best chance will be at INT, GSO and RDU so introduced PROB30 groups at those sites for possible restrictions.

Outlook: Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day into Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions from low stratus and fog can't be ruled out each early morning, particularly at sites that experience rainfall the previous day.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 10: KRDU: 101/2008 KFAY: 99/2008

June 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926

June 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022

June 15: KRDU: 99/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981

June 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KFAY: 77/2022 June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.