textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Slight increase to wind gusts for Monday (15 to 25 mph) and Tuesday (20 to 30 mph).

* Increased chances for showers and storms Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 AM Monday...

1) Dry and gusty winds to bring low to moderate chance for increased fire potential today into Wednesday to the southern Mid-Atlantic.

2) A cold front will bring showers and isolated strong storms to the region Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and gusty winds to bring low to moderate chance for increased fire potential today into Wednesday to the southern Mid-Atlantic.

Elongated surface high pressure draped from the central Gulf states to off the Carolina coast will retreat towards Bermuda today before settling just off the coast of Newfoundland through Wed. Surface ridging from the parent high will continue to extend into the Southeast and tighten the surface pressure gradient into the southern Mid-Atlantic as low pressure occludes over the Hudson Bay and waves of low pressure ripple along the trailing, slow-moving, cold front over the Ohio Valley by Wed.

Enhanced flow just off the surface is expected to mix down to the surface with daytime heating and support wind gusts 15-25 mph Monday and 20-30 mph on Tues. Delayed moisture return will result in dry afternoon RH as thermal advection within the southwesterly flow increases temperatures into the upper 70s to around 80. This combination may result in moderate chance for significant fire potential and increased fire danger where these meteoroligical conditions overlap critically dry fuels. The best overlap will be across the Piedmont of NC, which missed out on the steady, soaking rainfall on Sat. Further coordination will be needed to assess the need for any Fire Weather headlines. Increasing cloud cover and more appreciable moisture advection should limit the risk on Wed, although it will remain breezy.

Reminder, although 81 counties in NC were lifted from the burn ban by the NC Forest Service, it remains in place for Forsyth, Guilford, Davidson, Randolph, Alamance, Chatham, Stanly, Mongomergy, Moore, Anson, Stokes, Rockingham, Davie, Rowan, Iredell, Cabarrus, Gaston, Mecklenburg and Union counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will bring showers and isolated strong storms to the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Guidance continues to come into better agreement regarding the arrival of precipitation across central NC, though some variance remains concerning the intensity and exact exit timing of the frontal boundary on Thursday. Showers are expected to begin across the NW Piedmont as early as Wednesday morning, with chances increasing areawide through the afternoon and evening.

By Thursday morning the cold front is expected to be moving across the Appalachians and continue across central NC through the day on Thursday. Ahead of the cold front expect gusty winds up to 35 mph ahead of the storms on Thursday. Forcing from the frontal boundary, combined with some instability, will provide the highest chance for storms during the Thursday afternoon and evening hours. While models are still slightly inconsistent on the timing of the fronts departure, current trends suggest the front should clear the region by late Thursday night, allowing cool high pressure to filter in Friday morning. One potential limiting factor to monitor is the extent of cloud cover late Wednesday into early Thursday, which could limit the destabilization needed for stronger storm development.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 145 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period. A stream of mid-lvl clouds around 10 kft and virga seen in regional radar and satellite products will likely remain north of the forecast area. Light stirring tonight is anticipated to increase to a light southwesterly gustiness through the afternoon hours and cease around sunset. Marginal LLWS is expected Mon night into Tues as the low-lvl jet centered around 1,500 ft strengthens to 30-40 kts (least probable at KFAY).

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Tues. Southwest winds will become gusty (20-30kts) by Tues as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the Mid- Atlantic with marginal LLWS expected Tues night, although degree of surface mixing is uncertain. Sub-VFR conditions, showers and storms, and continued gusty conditions are expected Wed night through Thurs as a cold from traverses the region.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.