textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 230 PM Thursday...

Thunderstorms have exited the area and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 PM Thursday...

1) A post frontal region of stratiform rain behind a potent upper-level system and cold front will exit the central NC late this afternoon with gusty northwest winds diminishing this evening.

2) There is a risk of severe weather on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps across the region.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM Thursday...

Key message 1: A post frontal region of stratiform rain behind a potent upper-level system and cold front will exit the central NC late this afternoon with gusty northwest winds diminishing this evening.

A much needed rainfall of a half inch to three-quarters of an inch fell across much of central NC late this morning and afternoon. A combination of synoptically driven wind gusts and embedded convective wind gusts resulted in a generous supply of wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph across the area today. Isolated gusts of 50 mph or more were noted with some thunderstorms which were associated with scattered reports of downed trees, especially to the south and east of Raleigh.

The rain should lift north and east and exit central NC by 5pm or so. Rapid clearing behind the system has arrived in the Triad and should result in at least a brief period of sunshine across the area before sunset. Gusty winds this afternoon will continue to diminish this evening with night northerly winds expected overnight. Strong cold advection should result in low level thickness values that fall to between 1300 and 1310m by daybreak Friday. Have adjusted mins tonight to a few degrees below the NBM with lows in the lower 30s and perhaps a few spots in the upper 20s. -Blaes

Key message 2: There is a risk of severe weather on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps across the region.

The only chance of rain in the forecast after this afternoon will come on Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers will move in from the south on Sunday with an isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. However, the greatest chance of rain will come Monday from a cold front moving east with a low moving over the Great Lakes. The latest guidance continues to shift the arrival of the cold front slightly later, with the peak of the rain expected to arrive Monday afternoon. Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center added a 15% risk for severe weather across our area on Monday, the equivalent of a slight (level 2 of 5) risk. This threat level is usually only issued about twice a year in our area this far out. With modest instability and strong, veering wind shear, this setup indeed looks favorable for severe weather potential. Keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to this event. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will come to an end Monday night. -TG

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 130 PM Thursday...

Widespread rain will exit central NC over the next few hours resulting in improving aviation conditions this evening and continuing overnight. Visible satellite imagery shows that rapid clearing is arriving in the western Piedmont with VFR conditions now reaching KINT. Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions across the remainder of central will quickly improve late this afternoon with VFR conditions expected areawide by 00Z. Clear skies are expected overnight. The SREF and some guidance including the NAM suggest a small potential for some patchy fog, this appears most favored across eastern locations where the low level drying will be the slowest. Mainly clear skies are expected on Friday with some patchy high cirrus clouds.

Gusty northwesterly winds will linger across eastern locations over the next few hours but otherwise quickly diminish this evening. Light northerly winds at 5kts or so is expected late night. Winds will veer around to south and south-southwesterly on Friday at around 10 kts with gusts at times to 20 kts.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue for the remainder of Friday into Saturday. Stronger warm advection winds are possible Friday and again on Monday. Increasing moisture in a return flow pattern could result in some stratus on Sunday and spotty precipitation. A strong cold front will bring the risk of showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds on Monday. -Blaes

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.