textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather through early Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

* Cold temperatures tonight in the low to mid 20s

Cold high pressure over the Southern Plains will slowly migrate into southeast Texas into tomorrow morning. Northwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will diminish this evening. While the high is not positioned just right, we should see winds decouple, to allow for excellent radiational cooling across the region. Some guidance suggests some orographic cirrus across the Triad tonight, dissipating by sunrise Wed. Otherwise, it should be mainly clear. Most areas should drop into the low to middle 20s. There might be a few locations over the Piedmont that drop briefly into the upper teens, per latest statistical guidance.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

* Possible fire danger concerns with brief gusts with low RH

Cold high pressure over Texas will move offshore into the northern Gulf during the day and evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front over the Upper MS valley will gradually slide south into the OH valley come early Thu, as cold high pressure builds into the Midwest. In advance of front, southwest winds will take over Wed with the southern high pressure to our southwest. WSW winds of 10 to 15 will gust at times to 15 to 20 mph, with perhaps a rogue 25 mph gust. Highs should range from the upper 40s north to the low 50s across the south. Combined low RH in the middle 20s with these gusts could create fire danger concerns, especially with fuel dryness continuing from Tue. We are planning to reach out to the NCFS on a potential fire danger statement for portions of NC. Lows will not be as cold Wed night, generally in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 107 PM Tuesday...

Upper pattern: A short-wave will move off the New England Coast Thursday as rising heights and nwly flow aloft spread across the eastern US. A weak short-wave will then transit the southern Plains/Deep South Friday into Saturday night. Nwly aloft returns over central NC Sunday through Tuesday as an anomalous mid-level ridge re-amplifies over the central US.

Thursday through Saturday: A dry cold front will clear eastern NC early Thursday, but the coldest/driest air will hang to our north (highs Thursday will reach the upper 40s (N) to mid 50s (S)). Low- level thicknesses will drop to ~1330 m Friday morning as high pressure shifts overhead. Good radiational cooling should promote lows in the mid to upper 20s Thursday night.

The aforementioned weak short-wave will move across the Deep South Friday evening and push offshore through Saturday evening. Ahead of the system, swly sfc will develop over central NC with some temperature and dew point recovery expected (highs will reach the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon). Associated mid-level perturbations will move across the southeast Friday evening and into the overnight period. At the sfc, models depict a weak low developing Friday night over the Gulf states. Lift associated with these features should promote the development of light rain over the Deep South Friday evening that will shift east with time through Saturday morning. However, guidance continues to trend towards shunting much of this precipitation to our south (several deterministic models have central NC largely dry from this system). Have trended the NBM PoPs down some to account for this shift in the guidance, but still maintain a chance of rain Friday night into Saturday afternoon with highest chances across the NC/SC border.

Dry high pressure will settle in behind the exiting weak short-wave as nwly flow aloft dominates into early next week. However, the coldest air will remain to our north, as highs remain near to just above normal in the mid 50s Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the entirety of the 24 hour TAF period. Gusty NW winds today of 15-20kts this afternoon will diminish after sunset. Expect calm to light winds overnight with a few mid/high clouds moving across the region not expected to impact aviation restrictions. Another round of gust winds 15-20kts (locally a few 25kt gusts) will pick up late morning and last through the afternoon Wednesday.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system will bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the region. VFR conditions will return for Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions remain possible Wednesday when humidity values will be low, in the 25 to 30 percent range during the late morning through early evening hours. Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph. We reached out to the NCFS regarding a fire statement for Wed, and will coordinate any potential headlines, if needed, by early Tue evening.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.