textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Nothing appreciable

KEY MESSAGES

As of 200 AM Friday...

1) The persistent pattern of dry and seasonable weather will continue over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The persistent pattern of dry and seasonable weather will continue over the next 7 days.

The mid and upper level weather pattern through the weekend will be dominated by a high amplitude upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf north into the western Great Lakes with a general northerly flow across the Carolinas. Disturbances in the flow including a series of moisture-starved shortwave troughs will move across the Carolinas tonight and early Sunday. Deep layer moisture will be lacking as precipitable water values will remain low through the period ranging between 30-60% of normal.

A reinforcing surface high pressure system will progress east from the Great Lakes into the the Canadian Maritimes over the next few days. This high will extend into our region behind a dry cold front that will move across the Carolinas this morning. A slightly cooler airmass will arrive today and a northeasterly flow will spread shallow moisture and generate some fair weather stratocumulus clouds across the area during the today and Saturday, especially eastern areas. These will be the first notable clouds in central NC since Monday. Temperatures will generally range near and slightly below average through the weekend.

The mid and upper level ridge will begin to weaken early next week with another short wave trough moving across the region during the middle of the week. The airmass will moderate on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures warming up a few degrees before a slightly cooler airmass arrives for Wednesday an Thursday. Dry weather should continue for through Thursday although there are signals that a more southwesterly flow will result in an increase in deep layer moisture and perhaps the need to consider limited rain chances next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 215 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Expect nly-nely winds to become occasionally gusty into the teens to 20 kts mainly at FAY and RWI, possibly RDU, with daytime heating today and Sat. Some stratocumulus clouds have developed in the onshore flow over northeast NC, and should spread swwd across the area this evening and through the weekend. While most cloud bases should be above 3 kft and generally few to scattered in coverage, some brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible, especially during the morning hours.

Outlook: Aside from the aforementioned small chance of sub-VFR ceilings in nely flow this weekend, dry, VFR conditions are expected to persist for at least the next several days.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.