textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered temperatures a few degrees tonight in our anomalous pattern.

* Raised high temperatures a few degrees due to the very dry air in place, especially Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 205 AM Wednesday...

1) Very dry air and soil moisture levels will lead to desert-like conditions with very warm days and very cool nights into Thursday night.

2) Temperatures rising back into the 90s by Friday, with the rest of the extended period remaining mainly dry.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Very dry air and soil moisture levels will lead to desert-like conditions with mainly sunny warm days and clear and very cool nights into Thursday night.

The mid/upper low offshore combined with the chilly surface high pressure to our north will continue to supply very low relative humidities (DAA and sinking air) for early June. The anomalous northerly flow will combine with mainly sunny skies to bring desert- like conditions through Thursday. Highs today will reach the lower to mid 80s after near record lows early today in the 40s/lower 50s.

Relative humidities will be in the 20s again this afternoon - essentially very rare for our region in early June. Lows tonight with clear skies and light winds will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

We went a few degrees lower than the NBM and most statistical guidance for low and a few degrees higher for MaxT during the period.

Highs Thursday will warm further into the mid to upper 80s with very low relative humidities again.

2) Temperatures rising back into the 90s by Friday, with the rest of the extended period remaining mainly dry.

Canadian high pressure will start to shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night or Friday morning as mid-level ridging will start building into the region. This will allow winds to shift to be mainly southerly which will bring warmer air. Thus, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday afternoon. Saturday should be the warmest day, with highs in the lower to mid 90s, with Sunday looking to be a few degrees cooler.

During this time, much or all of central NC is in Moderate HeatRisk, meaning that being outside in the heat may impact individuals sensitive to heat who don't have access to adequate cooling or hydration.

As the ridging shifts offshore on Sunday, highs should return to the 80s on Monday and Tuesday. During this time, a relatively dry air remains over the region, which means central NC should remain mostly dry through at least Saturday. The chance of isolated showers may return Sunday and Monday as the ridge moves offshore and greater moisture returns.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

TAF period: VFR conditions expected through 12z/Friday.

Outlook beyond 12Z Friday: Generally VFR conditions through the weekend.

Increasing storm chances with non-VFR weather possible next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.