textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 200 PM Thursday...

* Nothing appreciable

KEY MESSAGES

As of 200 PM Thursday...

1) Unseasonable warmth will prevail on Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. More-widespread showers and storms are expected on Sunday/Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.

2) Temperatures will turn much cooler early next week with potential for frost/freeze on Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonable warmth will prevail on Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front. More-widespread showers and storms are expected on Sunday/Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.

As SW low-level flow persists ahead of a cold front, temperatures will be unseasonably warm across central NC on Friday and Saturday. Friday's highs will be in the lower-80s (10-15 degrees above normal) and lows will be in the lower-60s (15-20 degrees above normal), with Saturday about 1-3 degrees warmer than that. Isolated showers will be possible on Friday and Saturday afternoons as the western Atlantic mid-level high begins migrating back east, perhaps a bit higher on Saturday vs Friday as we start to get weak mid-level height falls. This chance will be greatest in the western Piedmont (west of the Triangle) which will be furthest removed from the high. But with limited forcing, limited CAPE, and a capping inversion, POPs are only slight chance and storms are unlikely to develop.

Widespread showers and storms are expected on Sunday along and ahead of a strong cold frontal passage. Mid/upper troughing will move across the Eastern US with resulting moderate mid-level height falls of 30-60 m/12 hr across central NC. Mid-level flow will increase to the 35-50 kt range, so shear could be sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence is still low at this time given uncertainty in timing of the front. A delayed frontal passage to the evening compared to earlier in the day would give more time for daytime heating and instability to build up. The GFS is faster and brings precipitation to central NC starting in the morning, greatly limiting SBCAPE and focusing it mainly in the SE. The slower ECMWF and NAM would allow for more SBCAPE across the whole region, but it still isn't too impressive (around 500 J/kg or less) given widespread cloud cover and poor mid-level lapse rates. POPs continue to be in the categorical range, but ensemble mean QPF is generally a quarter to half an inch, which should provide very limited relief from the ongoing drought.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will turn much cooler early next week with potential for frost/freeze on Wednesday morning.

Temperatures behind the cold front will drop substantially with highs on Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 60s and lows Monday night in the lower-to-mid-40s. A reinforcing cold surface high will build from the Great Lakes and Northeast US down the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday night and Wednesday. While current forecast lows on Tuesday night drop to the mid-30s to lower-40s, statistical guidance particularly the MEX shows potential for temperatures dropping to at or even below freezing. So frost or freeze headlines may be needed on Wednesday morning given the growing season started for central NC on April 1. One limiting factor may be that there does look to be a decent pressure gradient in place, which would work against radiational cooling. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the upper- 50s to lower-60s. The cold high will move east into the Atlantic on Wednesday night/Thursday, resulting in temperatures moderating back to near normal, but still can't rule out some frost concerns on Thursday morning as well.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 155 PM Thursday...

Areas of IFR-MVFR ceilings are expected to develop and concentrate over the Piedmont, to near or just west of FAY and RWI, between 09- 15Z Fri. Patches of light rain or showers may also result from the associated cloud layer over the Piedmont. The associated cloud layer should then lift and scatter through MVFR through midday.

Outlook: Low-level moisture will gradually deepen and support the development of IFR-MVFR ceilings again Sat and Sun mornings, ahead of a cold front and chance of convection and flight restrictions that will move across cntl NC Sun afternoon.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 2: KGSO: 87/2010 KFAY: 90/1974

April 3: KFAY: 90/1934

April 4: KGSO: 87/2025 KRDU: 90/2025

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 2: KGSO: 61/1979 KRDU: 66/2024 KFAY: 66/2024

April 5: KFAY: 67/2025

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.