textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* SPC introduced a marginal risk for isolated severe storms on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 255 AM Monday...

1) An unsettled weather pattern returns Tuesday through the weekend, with a few rounds of light rain possible.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An unsettled weather pattern returns Tuesday through the weekend, with a few rounds of light rain possible.

The first chance of rain will come Tuesday morning as a line of showers looks to decay over the mountains. While most of the rain looks to stay to our west, a few showers may reach the Triad. A small amount of elevated instability will be possible as well, meaning that a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

The next best chance of rain will come on Wednesday as a surface low moves to our north and a shortwave trough and associated front move through the region. Looking at the LREF and deterministic models, rain looks to spread into the region Wednesday morning. The end timing is a little more unclear, with the GEFS showing a longer duration light rain into Tuesday afternoon, while the European and Canadian ensembles show rain ending by Thursday morning. This is also combined with some guidance still suggesting that there could be a split of the heavier rain to both our north and south. Regardless, QPF values look to be light, with the 50th percentile of each ensemble generally showing less than 0.5 inches of rain by Thursday night. Some limited instability looks to be present Wednesday afternoon, so a few embedded thunderstorms may be possible. Any embedded stronger showers or storms may also cause localized areas of greater rainfall totals.

The next chance of rain will be on Saturday as the front stalls to our south and a shortwave trough moves through the southeast. Models disagree on if a low forms off the NC coast, which is making the rainfall forecast uncertain. This is also seen in the LREF cluster analysis, where only 2 of the 4 clusters are showing over 40% chance of rain Saturday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 558 AM Monday...

10Z Update: MVFR ceilings are hanging on at all TAF sites early this morning. However, VFR and clear skies is showing up across the NC/VA border. Still expecting ceilings to clear from north to south this morning, but delayed the return to VFR a few hours at each site given latest observational and satellite trends. KFAY may hold onto MVFR ceilings through ~16 to 17Z.

Previous discussion:

MVFR stratus persists this morning with a little residual nely gustiness at KRDU/KFAY. This cloud deck should diminish from north to south through mid to late morning. Nely sfc flow will persist today, but expect flow to weaken through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue into tonight with light to calm sfc winds.

Outlook: A disturbance will move across the area on Tuesday, bringing a small risk of a shower at GSO/INT. A better chance of restrictions in showers and perhaps storms arrives Wednesday with a stronger area of low pressure. VFR should prevail Thu and Fri.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.