textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for central NC on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

1) Increased Fire Danger present in central North Carolina on Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will be above normal into the weekend, before dropping to near normal into the next week. The forecast is dry through Friday night, with a chance of rain by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger present in central North Carolina on Wednesday.

A surface low will move across the Great Lakes today, and the associated fronts will remain to the north of the region tomorrow. However, a surface trough will move across Virginia and North Carolina Wednesday afternoon, bringing a slight wind shift, an increase in wind gusts, and a band of clouds along the VA/NC border. Considering how dry the air will be in the lowest mile of the atmosphere, do not expect any precipitation to reach the ground. However, with mixing up to 700 mb, gusts as high as 25 mph, and afternoon relative humidity values as low as 20%, combined with already dry fuels from the ongoing drought, this will result in increased fire danger across all of central North Carolina. A statement has been issued after coordination with the North Carolina Fire Service. Once the trough moves through the region, the wind will slacken, lowering the threat of fires due to weather conditions for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will be above normal into the weekend, before dropping to near normal into the next week. The forecast is dry through Friday night, with a chance of rain by the weekend.

High pressure will dominate the Southeast on Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, another surface low will move across the Great Lakes, bringing a chance of rain to much of the East Coast. One opportunity for rain will come Saturday into Saturday night, while another front is expected to approach from the west on Tuesday. There are still differences with models in the timing and amounts of rainfall. Each of these systems could bring up to a quarter inch of rain to the area, but this will do little to overcome the long-term rainfall deficit.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 130 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. This afternoon, expect light surface winds with generally southerly winds through the overnight period. A 30-35 kt southwesterly low level jet looks to move just to our north tonight, which could allow for brief periods of light LLWS tonight in the north. Otherwise, tomorrow afternoon expect southwesterly winds to gust to around 18-24kts starting shortly after sunrise.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are generally expected to persist through the work week. Virga and/or very light rain will be possible around and north of RWI tomorrow afternoon with a cold front, but no restrictions are expected. The next best chance for rain and associated restrictions returns on Saturday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.