textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 215 AM Saturday...

1) Heat followed by a chance of showers and storms Monday into early Tuesday expected ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat followed by a chance of showers and storms Monday into early Tuesday expected ahead of a cold front.

Driven by a potent shortwave and low pressure system moving out of the Midwest into our area, this setup will drag a frontal boundary into the Mid-Atlantic, capable of triggering thunderstorms across the region. Confidence remains low regarding the exact timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall and severe risk, though the latest AI-NWP convective models continue to show a 3045% chance of severe storms across our area. Because showers and storms are expected to hold off until the afternoon Monday, there will be plenty of diurnal heating with afternoons highs in the mid/upper 90s. Triple digit feels like temperature results in Heat Risk values reaching the Major category (3 out of 4) across the Triangle and Sandhills, mainly along and east of US1.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 130 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through 06z Sunday.

Looking beyond 06z Sunday, VFR conditions are favored to dominate through Monday morning, with an outside chance of morning stratus on Monday. There is a chance of mainly afternoon and evening (MVFR) conditions Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected through mid-week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES