textproduct: Raleigh

KEY MESSAGES

As of 216 PM Friday...

1) The heat wave continues through Saturday. The fire danger persists but currently no headlines are anticipated.

2) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of light rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures then turning cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

As of 216 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The heat wave continues through Saturday. The fire danger persists but currently no headlines are anticipated.

An upper-level disturbance is presently moving toward the coast. This same shortwave was responsible for a tenth of an inch of rain or so over the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain this morning. The system as it exits through the afternoon, height rises will fuel temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, warmest in our southern areas. We may be just a few degrees shy of records, but it will nonetheless be close.

The warmest day of the stretch is still expected tomorrow with widespread lower 90s. Anomalous ridging and return southwest flow of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph will promote this heat. It is quite possible we tie or break records at GSO/FAY. A strong trough moving into the Great Lakes and OH valley will approach late Sat night. Rain showers are possible over the NW Piedmont by early Sun, though most activity will hold off until mid-morning to early afternoon Sun.

Regarding the fire danger threat, meteorological conditions remain favorable for fire spread through the weekend, and even post-frontal early next week Monday. Winds are relatively light today, but RH levels dip once again into the 20s. Winds and RH will be more favorable Sat, with mid 20s RH and gusts to 25 mph. SPC has much of the state highlighted for fire danger through Monday. We coordinated with NCFS yesterday and presently no headlines are anticipated. However, that does not mean people should let their guard down. A burn ban remains in place and fires may start and spread very easily due to the very dry fuels. Additional coordination may be needed later this weekend for possible an increased threat on Mon when NW gusts combine with RH levels below 20 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of light rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures then turning cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

Models are in good agreement bringing the cold frontal passage through central NC fairly early on Sunday. Mid-level height falls, and sfc forcing should be maximized to our north. Given the early morning passage, this system will likely produce scattered pockets of primarily stratiform rain. QPF still looks minimal, unfortunately, with possibly only a few hundreds of an inch for much of central NC(highest amounts up to a tenth possible across the far northeast). Expect a little gustiness (20 to 30 mph) ahead of and behind the front on Sunday with most locations cooling off into lower to upper 70s.

High pressure will build in Monday with high temps cooling off into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Overnight lows may dip down into frost (and possibly freeze) levels Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some of the statistical guidance is quite chilly in our traditionally cooler spots.

After another cooler day on Tuesday, ridging will return with highs pushing mid to upper 80s by end of the week. Unfortunately rain chances look fairly limited until closer to the end of the month.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 715 PM Friday...

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will continue across central NC for the next 24 hours, with only a mix of scattered (perhaps broken for short times) mid clouds based around 8kft and a few high clouds anticipated. No vsby restrictions. Surface winds may stay up at 6-9 kts from the W or NW until 01z, then expect light and variable winds up to 15z, followed by winds from the SW at 8-12 kts after 15z Sat.

Looking beyond 00z Sun, mid and high clouds will increase Sat evening, but VFR conditions should hold. By late Sat night through Sun morning, a strong cold front is expected to push to the SE through the area, bringing several hours of wind gusts up to 20-30 kts and a shorter period of sub-VFR cigs with light rain just behind the front. VFR conditions should return late Sun into Sun night and persist through Wed.

CLIMATE

All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.