textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 215 AM Tuesday...

* No major changes to the forecast, updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 1255 AM Tuesday...

1) Patchy frost possible tonight/tomorrow morning and Thursday morning, but this frost potential could be mitigated by wind tonight and clouds tomorrow night.

2) Worsening drought conditions from a dry forecast, and the prolonged influence of continental air and low relative humidity, will increase fire weather concerns through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 1255 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... CAA over the next 24-30 hours will set the stage for chilly temps tonight and early Wednesday morning. Our current forecast shows lows Wednesday morning from the low-mid 30s along and north of I-85 and esp along the VA border, with lows 35-40 elsewhere across central NC. Ordinarily these temps would suffice for patchy frost, which would necessitate a frost advisory tonight. However, we are expecting NE winds to remain elevated tonight along with dwpts falling through the 20s, which in this case may actually limit the frost potential. The locations with the best chance to see frost tonight will be those mentioned above with low-mid 30s (along and north of I-85 and near the VA border). Will closely monitor and the day shift can issue a frost advisory should the trends support that.

Cold readings are expected again Thursday morning with lows near to perhaps a degree colder than Wednesday morning. However this time we'll have additional cloud cover which would yet again limit frost potential. It's worth noting that if these clouds don't materialize, or if there are ample breaks in them, we could see patches of frost set up Thursday morning, esp in the colder locations north near the VA border and west of the Triangle.

KEY MESSAGE 2 ... Worsening drought conditions from a dry forecast, and the prolonged influence of continental air and low relative humidity, will increase fire weather concerns through the weekend.

The prolonged presence and influence of the cP surface high/ridge through the week will favor both a dry forecast and min RH values below 45% every day of the forecast period, lowest and mostly in the 20s percent Tue-Wed. While associated surface winds will be relatively light through most of the forecast period, they will be relatively strongest from the northeast at 10-15 kts and with gusts to around 20 or so kts Wed, when the MSL pressure gradient around the anomalously strong surface high will be maximized.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 215 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period as a dry cold front pushes southward through the region. High cirrus clouds currently blanketing the area will gradually thin out through the morning, giving way to clear skies by the afternoon and evening as a much drier air mass settles in from the north.

The main change to watch for is a wind shift this morning. Winds overnight will be light and variable will turn to come out of the north-northeast. Once this shift happens, you can expect some breezy conditions during the afternoon, with occasional gusts reaching up to 20 mph at times. These breezes will settle down after sunset, leaving a light, steady wind through the rest of the night.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist through the early part of the upcoming weekend.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.