textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will linger along the Southeast coast today. A wedge front will develop and become quasi-stationary over the western Piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia Thursday and Thursday night, then be overtaken by a cold front that will sweep across the region early Friday. Following high pressure will migrate quickly eastward and across and offshore the Southeast through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/

As of 350 AM Wednesday...

As surface high pressure slides further off the coast, light SW winds will slowly increase the rest of tonight and into the day. This along with mid and high clouds beginning to enter the region from the west in advance of a shortwave entering the TN Valley will result in temperatures remaining steady or potentially even slightly rising as we head toward sunrise. Lows will be in the upper-20s to lower-30s.

Mid and high clouds will become more widespread this afternoon, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies. High temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal, in the upper-50s to lower-60s. SW winds may gust to 15-20 mph across the south and east. As a warm front begins to approach from the south tonight, dew points will start to increase, and with continued cloudy skies, lows will only drop into the 30s. Can't rule out some patchy fog late Wednesday night with the best chance in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. But overall the signal in guidance is mixed with some models like the NAM depicting it and others like the HRRR keeping it to our east. Think the mid and high clouds will at least limit fog potential, so confidence isn't high enough to include in the wx grids at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Thursday and Thursday night: A lead s/w disturbance will lift north/northwestward from the northern Gulf on Thursday into Thursday night, allowing for moisture to surge back into the area. This will allow for showers/rain (with possibly even some embedded thunder) to overspread the area on Thursday into Thursday night. This will help to drive a warm front into the region as well. However, we are likely to see an in-situ CAD airmass develop across the Piedmont on Thursday thanks to the antecedent dry airmass and expected rainfall. Meanwhile, a stronger northern stream s/w will moves across the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night propelling a cold front eastward and across central NC on Friday morning. Ahead of the cold front expect we will see temperatures rise some during the evening/overnight behind the first wave of precip, along with areas of fog develop, before a renewed band of showers and isolated thunderstorms moves across the area along and in advance of the cold front. SPC does not have our area highlight for a severe threat at this time, given the overall lack of instability. However, a strong to isolated severe storm can't entirely be ruled out, especially with the increasing wind fields as the front approaches.

Temperatures during this period will be tricky given the rather complex pattern, with a possible non-diurnal temperature cure. High temps during the daytime will likely range from the upper 40s northwest to the upper 60s southeast, with the potential for temps to increase a couple more degrees or remain steady across the Piedmont.

Friday and Friday night: The lead cold will quickly move to the east of the area on Friday morning, with the skies clearing out and breeze conditions for Friday late morning into the afternoon, with high temps generally ranging from the lower to mid 50s nw to the mid 60s se. Winds will become west to west-northwesterly behind the front, with wind gust up to 25 to 30 mph possible, with even a few stronger wind gusts possible.

High pressure will build into the area behind the front Friday night, with decreasing winds and much colder conditions. Lows Friday night are expected to generally be in the upper 20s to near 30.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1230 AM Wednesday...

* Trending unseasonably milder, briefly, through the weekend * Cooler and more-seasonable Mon-Tue * Just a slight chance of rain Sun evening, with a little better low chance on Tue

Continued progressive flow will become quasi-zonal across the mid- latitudes, around a sub-tropical high and surrounding ridge forecast to migrate from the sern Pacific to the srn Plains through early to mid next week. The models are in better agreement tonight regarding the amplitude of a shortwave trough forecast to progress across the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, with associated forcing for ascent that will likely remain north of cntl NC.

At the surface, ~1025 mb high pressure will migrate quickly ewd and across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas Sat-Sat night, during which time a warm front will develop ewd from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. It will consequently turn milder across cntl NC this weekend, ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will settle swd across the srn Middle Atlantic late Sun-Sun night, with following high pressure that will ridge across the Middle Atlantic with cooler temperatures Mon-Tue. Return flow, and developing isentropic lift around the ridge, will favor a small chance of rain Tue into Tue night.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 650 AM Wednesday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered high clouds have begun to move in from the west, and they will get thicker this morning and last through the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, calm to light SW winds will increase to 5-10 kts this morning, potentially gusting up to 20 kts at FAY and RWI late this morning and this afternoon, before diminishing again after dark. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning as low level moisture starts to increase, mainly in the east with the best chance at FAY and RWI. However, due to a mixed signal in guidance and the deck of mid and high clouds that should be overhead, confidence is too low to include mention in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Flight restrictions and rain will accompany a frontal system across the region Thu-Thu night. VFR and dry weather will return from Friday through Sunday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.