textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Nothing significant

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

1) Cold air damming regime will stay in place over the next few days, with cool temperatures and light rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

1) Cold air damming regime will stay in place over the next few days, with cool temperatures and light rain.

The cold front has successfully made its way through the region, and now looks to be located along the NC coast into South Carolina. This front should stall to our south and at the same time a low pressure system is expected to strengthen off the NC coast. This has allowed for a cold air damming regime to set up over the area. Through the day today, expect cooler temperatures, with highs looking to remain in the low 60s in the northwest to the low (perhaps mid) 70s in the southeast. This will be accompanied by overcast skies and periods of light rain/drizzle. A shortwave trough should approach and move through the region tonight, which could allow for increased rainfall in the evening to overnight hours.

The low pressure system will continue to strengthen off the coast and move to the north, which should help the CAD erode Thursday evening into Friday. The erosion should be aided by drier and somewhat cooler air moving into the region by Friday morning. Since the CAD looks to remain through Thursday afternoon, additional light rain and drizzle will remain possible Thursday as well. Additionally, gusty winds look likely as the low strengthens off the coast on Thursday afternoon. After the CAD erodes, temperatures look to slowly moderate each day through mid-week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 200 AM Wednesday...

IFR conditions are generally expected to prevail over the 24 hour TAF period. A cold air damming regime will allow for the deck of 500- 900 ft OVC ceilings to remain in place through the day today. Along with this, periods of drizzle and/or light rain will remain possible over at least the next 24 hours, with periods of moderate rain possible late tonight. With the drizzle/light rain there will also be reductions in visibility, with a few sites reporting 3-5 SM visibilities as of the 6Z observations. There could be brief improvements or reductions from the IFR ceilings, however IFR should be the main prevailing flight category.

Outlook: Widespread stratus with at least sub-VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Conditions will improve on Friday and Saturday as VFR conditions arrive.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.