textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Both the Heat Advisory and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been canceled.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 355 PM Saturday...

1) Strong to severe storms remain possible across central NC into mid evening. Mostly dry through tonight, although patchy light rain is possible toward morning, along with widespread low clouds.

2) Today is the last dangerously hot day of this stretch, with a brief respite in the heat coming Sun through Tue. But above normal temperatures return for Wed through Sat, with Thu as the hottest day.

DISCUSSION

As of 355 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong to severe storms remain possible across central NC into mid evening. Mostly dry through tonight, although patchy light rain is possible toward morning, along with widespread low clouds.

Strong to severe storms are ongoing at this hour, with a general motion to the SE and SSE. As these feed on moderate SBCAPE within an environment of favorable effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts and high DCAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg, isolated to scattered discrete cells and clusters producing 60+ mph winds and 1-2" diameter hail remain likely. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for all of central NC until 8 PM EDT, although the severe threat in far NW areas has diminished as of now.

As these storms and its accompanying frontal zone settle into our southern areas by mid evening and to our S by midnight, more stable air and lingering low level moisture will combine to result in a good chance for low clouds and areas of fog over much of the area overnight into Sun morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Today is the last dangerously hot day of this stretch, with a brief respite in the heat coming Sun through Tue. But above normal temperatures return for Wed through Sat, with Thu as the hottest day.

As the aforementioned storms drop SE and SSE through the area, the rain-cooled air will bring a welcomed end to this stretch of dangerous heat. A cooler and less humid air mass building in from the N and NE will bring near normal or even slightly below normal temps for Sun-Tue, as broad but deep mid level troughing over the Eastern Seaboard gradually lifts ENE off the coast. By mid week, mid level ridging will build back in from the W, from the mid Miss Valley, pushing low level thicknesses back above normal. This heat doesn't look quite as intense as this most recent heat wave, as the dewpoints should be a little lower, keeping peak heat index values even on Thu in the mid 90s to around 100F. Apart from a chance of light rain Sun, dry weather is expected through at least mid week. Renewed mid level troughing digging through the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians late in the week should help knock temps back down closer to normal by Fri/Sat with increasing clouds and a return to shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 725 PM Saturday...

TAF period: Cannot rule out an isolated shower tonight, but nearly all precipitation has moved to the North Carolina coastline. VFR conditions are expected through the evening, but after midnight, IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to spread from northeast to southwest. There is high confidence that ceilings that do develop will be around 400-600 ft; however, there is less confidence in how widespread cloud cover will be and whether there will be enough sky cover to form ceilings. Have maintained the inherited ceilings at all terminals. On Sunday, ceilings will be slow to lift, and scattered showers are expected in the afternoon. There is the possibility that coverage of showers will be greater and require prevailing showers and/or a thunderstorm mention.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail across central NC Sunday night through much of Thu with generally dry weather, although rain chances start to ramp back up late Thu with an approaching cold front.

CLIMATE

Records within reach this forecast period:

Record High Temperatures:

September 5: KGSO: 97/1954 KRDU: 98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.