textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* The fog potential appears a little less likely tonight with better much chances on Tuesday night.

* Wednesday and Wednesday night will largely be dry with rain chances and amounts decreasing for Thursday with the main focus for at least a little rain now delayed into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 215 PM Monday...

1) Some patchy dense fog is possible late tonight and especially on Tuesday night.

2) Above normal temperatures continue through Friday with rain chances shifting primarily to Friday afternoon, followed by a dry, cooler weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Some patchy dense fog is possible late tonight and especially on Tuesday night.

The upper level disturbance that produced some VFR sprinkles and spotty rain earlier today is now exiting the area. Areas of mid and high clouds are now shifting east.

The low level flow will gradually veer around and become more easterly and southeasterly supporting an increase in low level moisture. As we dive deeper into the transition season with cooler and longer nights, the potential for fog and some stratus increases. Areas of fog are possible tonight across eastern areas in the Coastal Plain and the eastern Piedmont and more widespread and impactful on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Outside of the fog and stratus, fair weather is expected over the next couple of days with highs in the mid and upper 70s on Tuesday with lows tonight and Tuesday night in the 40s to around 50.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures continue through Friday with rain chances shifting primarily to Friday afternoon, followed by a dry, cooler weekend.

A frontal system approaching the Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning will lift a warm front northward across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The primary cold front will cross the region Thursday night into Friday before pushing offshore Friday evening, followed by a weak, dry reinforcing boundary early Saturday.

As mentioned before, model guidance has trended notably drier for Thursday, shifting the primary focus for precipitation to Friday afternoon. The highest coverage remains focused along and east of the US1 corridor. PoPs and QPF have been trimmed back for Thursday, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible during the afternoon. The good news is that models continue to agree and show the reinforcing dry frontal boundary sweeping across the region late Friday into early Saturday, assuring a dry weekend.

Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normal through Friday, with highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s and mild overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Expect overnight lows to return to the 40s Saturday night, with highs moderating into the 60s Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 755 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions this evening should give way to IFR/LIFR stratus/fog tonight, highest confidence of lowest restrictions for the longest duration in the east (KRWI), though onset time is uncertain, most likely by 08Z Tue. Confidence decreases farther west. While the signal for IFR/LIFR fog creeps to near KRDU and KFAY, for now expect MVFR/IFR conditions. Some guidance suggests a period of restrictions also possible at KINT and KGSO, though confidence is lowest there. Conditions should gradually improve after daybreak, with VFR expected to return everywhere by 15Z Tue. Calm to light ely winds should prevail tonight, with ely wind of 10 kts or less expected Tue.

Outlook: Areas of fog and low stratus are expected to develop again Wed morning, probably with greatest coverage from e-cntl VA through n-cntl NC and with highest probability of occurrence and lowest restrictions at RWI and RDU. A moist axis, and a couple of bands of showers and possible flight restrictions, will precede a slow-moving cold front across the region Thu and Fri.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.