textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 156 AM Sunday...

* High confidence for multiple days of record high temps occurring mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 156 AM Sunday...

1) Dry weather and near-record heat will maintain fire weather concerns through much of next week.

2) Near record temperatures possible Tuesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 156 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather and near-record heat will maintain fire weather concerns through much of next week.

Dry conditions will persist across the region as minimum RH values drop into the 2530% throughout the coming week, particularly from Tuesday through Friday. While the pressure gradient remains relatively relaxedlimiting peak wind gusts to the 1520 mph range, the lack of significant moisture recovery is noteworthy. Although the forecast combination of humidity and wind is expected to remain just below official Increased Fire Danger or Red Flag Warning criteria, elevated fire concerns will persist until a wetting rain occurs. With no meaningful precipitation on the horizon, perhaps not until the tail end of the month, a statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of NC until further notice with all burning, including with previously-issued permits, prohibited.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Near record temperatures possible Tuesday through Saturday.

As the Bermuda high offshore continues to influence the Mid-Atlantic region with warm south/southwesterly flow through the week expect temperatures to climb into the low 90s by Wednesday. The mid- level ridge is highly anomalous, near the 90th percentile for mid-April. Expect temperatures to continue to be 20-25 degrees above normal through the rest of the week with near to record breaking temperatures in the low to perhaps middle 90s expected at all 3 climate sites (GSO/RDU/FAY) each day mid to late week. The warmest temperatures may end up being Fri-Sun ahead of a cold front that tries to approach late next weekend. During this time, the NBM percentiles indicate the potential for mid/upper 90s in some portions of the Triangle and Sandhills. Our saving grace will be the fact that dewpoints mix out during the afternoon in the lower 50s, keeping RH quite comfortable in the 25-30 percent range.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 AM Sunday...

A backdoor cold front continues to push westward this morning. A weak area of low pressure that has been present over the western Piedmont and Charlotte area has been weakening as the front moves west. Areas of MVFR stratus has developed in the wake of the frontal passage over the Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont. The general consensus indicates that this area of MVFR stratus will continue to advect west as moisture and weak upslope pools into the Piedmont of central NC. The uncertainty lies in where the western edge will be located, with most guidance too far west with the stratus shield compared to current observations. Despite this uncertainty, current thinking favors this stratus at the eastern sites (RDU, FAY, RWI) between 12-15z and enveloping over the Triad terminals (GSO/INT) in the 12-16z time period, where IFR may briefly occur. There is the potential that GSO/INT stay west of the stratus shield, but confidence was not great in removing this from the TAF given broad consensus of westward advection of the low-level moisture.

Winds out of the east-southeast today will become southerly tonight. A sea-breeze will favor some gustiness in the 12-18 kt range between 00-06z tonight. A return period of MVFR/IFR stratus is possible early Mon in a moist return flow and as the backdoor front lifts northward. Confidence is low on if/where this may occur, but introduced tempo groups at the eastern sites, where model guidance shows broad agreement.

Outlook: Outside of some early morning stratus Mon, VFR should prevail through Thursday.

CLIMATE

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 88/1930 KRDU: 89/1922

April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 13: KGSO: 61/2019 KRDU: 66/1930

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.