textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 245 PM Sunday...

* An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 3 PM EDT to 10 PM EDT on Monday across the Piedmont and Sandhills of central NC.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 245 PM Sunday...

1) Record highs possible this afternoon with an airmass typical of late June to early July. Slight chance of showers mainly along and east of I-95 accompanying a cold frontal passage Monday. Minimal rain expected till late next week.

2) An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 3 PM EDT to 10 PM EDT on Monday across the Piedmont and Sandhills of central NC due to a combination of breezy post-frontal winds and low relative humidities.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Record highs possible this afternoon with an airmass typical of late June to early July. Slight chance of showers mainly along and east of I-95 accompanying a cold frontal passage Monday. Minimal rain expected till late next week.

Temperatures have been slow to climb across the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain thus far today given lingering cloudiness from this morning's showers. Elsewhere, temps have rose into the lower to mid 80s. Still expecting a surge into the upper 80s/lower 90s everywhere the next few hours given consistent swly flow. Expect a little gustiness (up to 20 to 25 mph at times) to pick up this afternoon before subsiding some overnight.

Further upstream, a strong sfc cold front will generate convection over the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Latest CAM guidance has largely trended towards diminishing these showers/storms before reaching us overnight. However, as the front passes south through central NC Monday morning/early afternoon, some instability may form and support a few showers or an isolated storm along the front. Best chances for any rain remain along and east of I-95.

Beyond Monday, flow aloft will largely remain wnwly promoting dry conditions for much of next week which isn't ideal for our ongoing drought. The median ensemble total precipitation through next Monday only highlights a few tenths of an inch of rain across much of the area. Best chances appear to be Friday/Saturday with another strong frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 3 PM EDT to 10 PM EDT on Monday across the Piedmont and Sandhills of central NC due to a combination of breezy post-frontal winds and low relative humidities.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through central NC in the late morning and early afternoon on Monday. High temperatures will reach the mid-70s to lower-80s, and model forecast soundings depict mixing up to around 850 mb with ample dry air above that behind the front. This along with NNW downsloping flow will help dew points crash into the 30s and eventually 20s, resulting in RH values dropping to 25-30% across the Piedmont and Sandhills from mid- afternoon to early evening. Soundings also indicate post-frontal NNW gusts could reach up to 20-25 mph at times. Some light rain fell yesterday across western and southern parts of the area, but totals were mainly around a tenth of an inch or less, so fuels continue to be dry. While winds look too low for Red Flag Warning criteria, all of these factors will result in an increased fire danger risk on Monday in the Piedmont and Sandhills from 3 PM to 10 PM. The SACC outlook continues to highlight that area in a high risk for significant fire potential. There will be a sharp west-to-east gradient in low-level moisture across central NC, so not expecting as much fire weather concern in the Coastal Plain where RH values are expected to only drop to the 30-45% range and there is a slight chance of showers and storms.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 815 PM Sunday...

A wswly, 40-45 kt low-level jet will develop in the lee of the srn Appalachians and favor low-level wind shear conditions throughout cntl NC tonight. Wswly surface winds will strengthen and become gusty with daytime heating around 14Z, then veer to nwly and remain equally gusty behind a cold front that will move across the area Mon late morning through early afternoon. A band of showers may also develop along the front where its passage coincides with early afternoon heating (eg. near and southeast of RWI and FAY). Nwly surface winds will probably remain gusty through the evening-early overnight hours Mon night, as much colder air surges across the region.

Outlook: A chance of morning stratus will exist Thu and Fri mornings ahead of a strong cold front and next chance of rain and flight restrictions late Fri-Fri night.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 85/1948 KRDU: 89/1907 KFAY: 88/1948

March 23: KFAY: 86/1948

March 27: KGSO: 86/1921 KRDU: 87/2007 KFAY: 87/1946

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 63/1948

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007 KFAY: 65/1949

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.