textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front will move across central NC this morning. Yet another, reinforcing cold front will move across the region today. This will be followed by chilly high pressure that will settle across the Southeast through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 248 AM Sunday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement issued for the Southern Piedmont and Sandhills.

* Windy and turning colder later this morning through the day

* Clear and cold with diminishing wind tonight

The cold front will surge through the region through daybreak, reaching the coast shortly thereafter. The winds will really begin to increase behind the front, but the strongest winds will be later in the morning through the afternoon. Winds will become WNW at 15-25 mph with frequent gusts to 30-35 mph. Occasional gusts to 40 mph are likely in the NW Piedmont. Temperatures will generally fall through the day, especially as a secondary surge of CAA arrives mid afternoon through the evening.

The increased fire danger area is mainly for the southern part of central NC where the overlap of the driest fuels, lowest relative humidities, warmest temperatures, and some of the stronger winds will be. Collaboration with the NCFS and surrounding forecast offices revealed areas from Union to Cumberland counties as the main area of concern late 11 am through dusk.

The temperatures will fall quickly after dark, with the winds expected to slowly diminish to 10 mph or less late. Lows will dip into the 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/

As of 1235 AM Sunday...

* Dry and much colder

High pressure will begin Monday morning along the southern portion of the Mississippi River and extend east into North Carolina through the next 24 hours. Skies will be mostly sunny, with some high clouds across the south. Behind the pair of weekend cold fronts, highs will be below normal everywhere, with highs a few degrees on either side of 50 degrees. Another cold night is expected, with all locations in the 20s or lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1235 AM Sunday...

* Precipitation uncertainty remains, low chance for rain Wednesday and Thursday

* Near normal temperatures middle of the week becoming below normal

High pressure will remain across the Southeast on Tuesday, and an increase in southerly flow will allow temperatures to rise a bit higher than Monday, reaching the mid to upper 50s. Still not seeing much phasing between the coastal low Wednesday/Thursday and the low moving across the Great Lakes. Recent model runs are showing that another wave of low pressure may develop along the Great Lakes low's cold front as it passes over VA/NC, but this is a new development. The new forecast calls for a slight chance of rain everywhere Wednesday night and Thursday, with a slightly higher chance of rain from the Triangle to the north and east. With precipitation now expected to depart the region more quickly, the chance of snow has been removed from the forecast for Thursday evening as colder air funnels back into the region. Another area of high pressure will move across the Southeast Friday and Saturday, and temperatures will fall below normal once again.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 AM Sunday...

The cold front will move east of cntl NC by 13Z, after which time strong and gusty WNW winds will prevail with daytime heating through the day. A band of 6-8 thousand ft ceilings and widely scattered, high-based showers may accompany a reinforcing cold front across especially the Piedmont this afternoon. The weak/shallow character of the showers, and their high bases atop a very deep and dry boundary and sub-cloud layer, suggests most or all of the associated precipitation will sublimate/evaporate before reaching the surface. So while no visibility restrictions are expected, the localized cooling from sublimation/evaporation may locally and briefly enhance surface wind gusts, up to 35-40 kts.

Outlook: VFR, at least until a low pressure system may impact the Middle Atlantic region centered around the day Thu.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 248 AM Sunday...

The increased fire danger area is mainly for the southern part of central NC where the overlap of the driest fuels, lowest relative humidities, warmest temperatures, and some of the stronger winds will be. Collaboration with the NCFS and surrounding forecast offices revealed areas from Union to Cumberland counties as the main area of concern late 11 am through dusk.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.