textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Negligible changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 205 PM Monday...

1) Minimal rain for for the remainder of today. Areas of dense fog possible tonight/early Tuesday morning.

2) A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

3) Hot and dry weather returns this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 205 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Minimal rain for for the remainder of today. Areas of dense fog possible tonight/early Tuesday morning.

The sfc cold front has slid south of central NC this morning, with a surge of cool nely flow pushing south across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. Expect temperatures to continue to drop through the remainder of today and into this evening. Rain chances have come down considerably as the stratiform rain shield remains mostly up into VA. Can't rule out a few Trace to a few hundreds of an inch across the NC/VA border, but overall QPF will be quite limited. Any convection down in SC should remain south of central NC at this point.

The main concern is the potential for areas of dense fog tonight. The most consistent signal has been for areas in the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain, but some guidance extends this down to RDU or even further south and east. Regardless, those across the NC/VA border should be prepared for possible slower travel for tomorrow's morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A weak cold front will move through the region Wednesday night. Ahead of the front, a band of showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms are expected. Rain is expected to start late Wednesday afternoon and last into Wednesday night. With most of the rain expected around or just after sunset, instability should be weak, which will lessen the risk of stronger or severe storms. However, adequate shear parameters may allow for a few embedded stronger cells. This will especially be true in the Triad where the front will approach first as there will be a better chance for more instability. In terms of rainfall, the latest LREF, which includes the European and Canadian ensembles and the GEFS, is suggesting around 0.25 to 0.5 in of rain over central NC. If any stronger storms develop, a few deterministic models are suggesting there could be a few swaths of up to 1 inch of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Hot and dry weather returns this weekend into next week.

After Wednesday's frontal passage, surface high pressure will build into the region through the end of the week and then shift offshore on Saturday. At the same time, a mid-level ridge will be in place over the region. Once the high shifts off the southeast coast and the ridge is centered over the region, southerly flow will prevail and allow for increasing temperatures. Saturday, central NC will have maximum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s, increasing to the upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday and Monday. This pattern is expected to continue into at least mid-week, leading to an extended period of warm to hot temperatures expected.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 750 PM Monday...

Sct-bkn MVFR clouds persist over the central Piedmont through the N and central Coastal Plain currently, but confidence is high that these clouds will gradually exit from W to E through 04z, although sct-bkn mid level clouds will persist across the SE (FAY) for a few hours longer. With the trend toward clearing skies, and as sfc winds from the NE at 6-12 kts diminish with surface ridging nosing in from the NNE, the stage will be set for near-surface stabilization and good radiational cooling, resulting in development of areas of shallow IFR/LIFR fog starting after 07z, mainly over the N and NW, with the highest fog chances at INT/GSO/RDU. With very dry air just aloft, this fog should quickly lift and break up with heating Tue morning, likely by 13z. After this time, fair skies and light winds from the E or SE under 10 kts are expected through the end of the TAF period at all sites.

Looking beyond 00z Wed, VFR conditions will hold through Wed afternoon. An approaching cold front and upper level trough will bring a chance for MVFR conditions in rain Wed evening and night, with rain shifting NW to SE through the area. VFR conditions are expected Thu through Sat, although gusty winds are expected Thu.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.