textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Transitioning to more of a FF threat, severe threat will be on the wane through late evening - focus on Raleigh east and south.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 859 PM Sunday...

1) Clusters of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Locally heavy rain possible, and a still an isolated severe wind gust is possible. New storms later in the NW?

2) Much below normal temperatures Monday, with highest rain chances confined to the west and south.

3) Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm chances late in the week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 859 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... transitioning to more of a FF threat, severe threat will be on the wane through late evening - focus on Raleigh east and south.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Locally heavy rain possible, and a still an isolated severe wind gust is possible. New storms later in the NW?

The severe threat is now confined to mainly areas around Raleigh and to the south and east for the next couple of hours. Strong convergence due to interesting low level boundaries are focusing on this region. Winds have gusted to 55+ mph in some of the small wet microbursts in the Severe thunderstorm warning areas. This threat will be shifting south in the next few hours into Johnston/Harnett/Wayne Counties. Expect a continued wind damage threat with gusts to 50-60 mph and a wall of heavy rain that will last 15-20 minutes in any one location.

The FF threat is isolated and confined mainly urban areas where the 3 inch per hour rates will produce rapid runoff. The latest hi-res guidance suggests this FF threat may shift to the NW later tonight into portions of the Triad with renewed convection as the main front moves SW into that region focusing convergence there.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Much below normal temperatures Monday, with highest rain chances confined to the west and south.

As the front settles largely S of the area by Mon, the threat for heavy rain in training cells and convective clusters will be over across our S, with much lower chances over our northern two-thirds. As a CAD-like regime sets up, the presence of considerable cloud cover (esp over the NW) to hinder heating plus a light NNE/NE low level flow drawing lower dewpoints and more stable air into the area will allow for a much cooler day, including highs in the 70s over the Piedmont, around 10 to 15 degrees below normal and a welcome respite from the very hot temps of the last several weeks. The I-95 corridor east should see highs around 80/low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm chances late in the week and weekend.

The front passing through the area right now should still be in close enough proximity to central North Carolina to provide some rain on Tuesday, although it appears there will likely be a tight gradient between what falls along the VA/NC border (nothing) and the NC/SC border (a good amount of rain). As the front slips farther to the south, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday now all appear to be dry. While Friday was previously under a SPC outlook for severe weather, the area of concern shifted north with SPC's latest outlook. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday with moisture arriving from the north.

In the meantime, after a cool day on Monday, temperatures will rise slightly on Tuesday, then the 90s return for the rest of the forecast. The current forecast doesn't call for any daily records, but Thursday and/or Friday could possibly approach heat advisory criteria before the weekend precipitation brings temperatures down slightly.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1245 PM Sunday...

While VFR conditions prevail over the W and S parts of central NC at this hour, patches of MVFR cigs persist from the RDU area to the N and E. These sub-VFR cigs should continue to slowly lift and break up over the next couple of hours, resulting in VFR conditions areawide by 20z. At the same time, though, the chance for rain will increase areawide during the mid to late afternoon, with scattered storms possible mainly along and south of Hwy 64 (best chance of thunder at FAY, lesser chance at RDU/RWI, and lower still at INT/GSO). Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs are possible in any showers or storms, along with sudden wind gusts over 35 mph in and near any storms. Light rain is already falling in the INT/GSO area, and this will continue on-and-off through 02z, while the chance for rain and embedded storms at RDU/RWI/FAY will peak this evening, with a decreasing but persistent threat of rain through tonight. Outside of storms, conditions should be largely VFR from 20z through 04z, but then thereafter, a trend to MVFR and IFR conditions is likely, particularly after 06z and lasting through Mon morning. INT/GSO/RDU will have the highest chance of IFR conditions (primarily low cigs) from 07z through the end of the TAF period, while RWI/FAY should see a trend from IFR to MVFR cigs starting around 15z. Surface winds will be mainly from the N and NE at 10 kts or less as a weak frontal zone settles south of the state and a relatively cool and moist wedge-regime sets up.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, sub-VFR cigs are likely to hold through at least mid afternoon Mon at INT/GSO/RDU, with a chance of rain areawide and perhaps a late-day storm near FAY. Rain chances will decrease Mon night, although patchy MVFR cigs may persist into Tue morning. Then, mostly dry weather and VFR conditions should dominate Tue-Fri, although storm chances may start to return by Fri.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 16: KRDU: 101/1887

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 12: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/2011 KFAY: 80/1935

July 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 78/1992

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019

July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.