textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 525 AM Sunday...

1) A chance of showers return later tonight into Monday, mainly south and east.

2) A period of below normal temperatures, rising back to the 90s by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 525 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A chance of showers return later tonight and Monday, mainly in the south and east.

High pressure will dominate today and then shift east. Partly sunny skies today will yield highs around 80.

This will be followed by an upper level disturbance in the NW flow aloft that will approach late tonight and pass overhead Monday afternoon and evening. A weak surface trough is expected to develop over the Piedmont Monday, with a weak wave of low pressure expected to track from the Gulf Coast states across SC and offshore by Monday night. Although most of the convection will be to our south again, there appears to be a window of opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over the southern and eastern part of central NC late tonight, Monday, into Monday evening. The higher instability and moisture will develop from Charlotte to Raleigh south and east Monday. This is where the higher probabilities of scattered thunderstorms will be (Southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain). QPF is variable as is typically the case with scattered convection. Thus, expect little to nothing NW and 0.10 to 0.25 south and east, with a few locals of 0.5 to 1 inch in thunderstorms - mainly over the Coastal Plain. POP will ramp up very late tonight and Monday, peaking in the south and east Monday afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60s tonight and highs Monday expected to reach the lower to mid 80s.

This will be followed by a cool and dry weather with the anomalous NE upper trough and strong (for June) surface high pressure building south from the Great Lakes Tuesday into mid-week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 ... A period of below normal temperatures, rising back to the 90s by this weekend.

After Monday's cold frontal passage, Tuesday and Wednesday will remain about 5-10 degrees below normal as high pressure starts to build in west of the region. This equates to highs in the 70s on Tuesday, rising a few degrees into the mid-to-upper 70s on Wednesday. The high looks to pass over the region on Thursday, allowing for winds to shift out of the south. This should allow highs to return to the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday, rising to the low 90s on Saturday. A few showers may be possible as the front and potential coastal low continue to exit the area on Friday, otherwise mainly dry conditions are expected as the high pressure moves through the region.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 525 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight.

Outlook: A chance of MVFR conditions with showers/storms arrive Monday into Monday night - mainly from KFAY to KRDU eastward. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.