textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 100 PM Tuesday...

* No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 100 PM Tuesday...

1) Cold air damming slowly erodes this afternoon and evening, with patchy fog in our southeast early Wednesday.

2) Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

3) Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 100 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold air damming slowly erodes this afternoon and evening, with patchy fog in our southeast early Wednesday.

This morning's GSO 12z sounding showed a pronounced inversion in the lowest 3000 ft AGL as a result of the cold air damming. This cold air damming is slowly eroding as the high continues to shift east out over the north Atlantic. The latest satellite imagery reveals the low stratus slowly eroding from south to north, with sunshine in the far south Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. This trend should continue, with partial sunshine possible by late this afternoon over the rest of central NC. The Triad may not fully break out of the clouds, but these patterns are always difficult to forecast. For now, temperatures were kept from this morning, with mid 50s in the northwest and low/mid 60s in the far south and southeast. If the Triad does not clear out, they could be stuck in the 40s for highs. Tonight, there remains the potential for fog from the Sandhills into the Coastal Plain, mainly along/east of I-95. Fog should lift and disperse by 9-10 am Wed, followed by warmer temperatures Wed afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday, weak upper-level ridging will maintain warm southerly flow across the region. High temperatures tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 70s. On Thursday, warm southerly flow will increase and all of Central NC will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. By Friday and into Saturday, temperatures and dew points will continue to increase ahead of a frontal boundary stretching across the Mississippi Valley. Highs are expected to run 2025 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday, with highs nearing record values in the low 80s (see climate section below).

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler early next week but remain well above normal, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s to low 80s which will be around 1020 degrees above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into Monday.

The next precipitation chance is expected to arrive Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic. However a few models are showing precipitation west of US-1 as early as Saturday afternoon/evening. Ensemble guidance suggests a good chance of measurable precipitation across central NC especially Sunday and Monday. There is considerable spread in timing and coverage tied to the frontal boundary and how far east the boundary will actually make it. For now, the highest PoPs are focused Sunday afternoon and evening as the front attempts to begin to move across the region, but is expected to stall along the Foothills. Lingering showers and isolated storms could stick around through Monday before clearing out Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 100 PM Tuesday...

As of the 18Z observations, most locations in the southeastern half of the CWA have improved to MVFR to VFR, while many locations in the northwestern half of the region remaining IFR to LIFR. Ceilings are expected to continue to lift/scatter over the next few hours, eventually becoming VFR everywhere by this afternoon/evening. Overnight, areas of low stratus and fog are expected to develop, with the highest probability of restrictions to IFR and potentially LIFR in the eastern sites (FAY/RWI). Any restrictions should improve shortly after sunrise.

Outlook: Each morning will have the potential for low stratus and/or fog development, especially at the eastern sites (FAY/RWI). Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.