textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No changes to the Freeze Watch or Freeze Warning.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 200 AM Saturday...

1) Frost/Freeze headlines remain in place tonight, with a Freeze Warning for all of central NC Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Frost/Freeze headlines remain in place this morning, with a Freeze Warning for all of central NC early Sunday morning.

Frost/Freeze headlines have remained unchanged into early this morning. While the aforementioned shortwave and cold front moving into the region early this morning will increase cloud cover, still expect clouds to weaken and disperse through the early morning hours today. Some light stirring may also inhibit lows from getting below freezing widespread in the Warning area, but given little change in guidance with respect to lows, decided to keep frost/freeze headlines intact.

The more widespread freeze is expected late tonight into Sunday morning. A Continental Polar high of around 1030-mb will settle across the Mid MS valley region. Although not in the most ideal position, the pressure gradient should relax, allowing winds to go calm. Coupled with low-level thicknesses of 1304-1310m, should support a widespread freeze of mid/upper 20s to low 30s, coldest across the Northern Piedmont. Given the consistent signal in guidance, decided to keep the entire area under a Freeze Warning Sunday morning.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 200 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals through the 24-hour TAF period.

Lingering upper level energy pushing east across the Coastal Plain will keep a chance of light rain showers/sprinkles occurring near RWI and RDU early this morning, though ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain VFR. Further west at INT and GSO, precipitation has ended with just scattered mid level clouds remaining.

Precipitation will clear over the next few hours, then leaving scattered clouds for the rest of the day. Light north/northwesterly winds overnight will pick up out of the northwest by late morning as daytime mixing develops, with afternoon gusts around 15 to 20 kt. Skies will continue to scatter out through the afternoon, and gusts will subside around sunset as winds relax to 0-5kts.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are forecast to continue into next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ007>011-021>026- 038>040. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ027-028-041>043- 073>078-083>086-088-089.