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WHAT HAS CHANGED

Models are stable for the mid and late week systems. Both still still lack of significant impacts for central NC due to little moisture to work with. Models have trended toward a mostly dry solution for this weekend as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Expect dry and quiet weather with above normal temperatures into Wednesday.

2) Models are stable for the mid and late week systems. They remain generally dry with with very limited to no impacts from any light snow late Wednesday night as the cold air chases the limited moisture through the region.

3) A much colder pattern follows the system Thursday into Friday.

4) Can't rule out some light rain on Saturday and light snow on Sunday, but guidance has come into better agreement for a dry solution and any amounts look quite limited at this time.

5) Cold air will return on Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Expect dry and quiet weather with above normal temperatures into Wednesday.

Expect a dry and quiet Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity will drop to 20-25% this afternoon. They will be higher Wednesday with 35-40 percent expected. Winds will be SW 10 to 15 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Models are stable for the mid and late week systems. They remain generally dry with with very limited to no impacts from any light snow late Wednesday night as the cold air chases the limited moisture through the region.

Models have stabilized and remain mostly dry during the Wednesday night into early Thursday period with very limited to no impacts from any showers. QPF remains very low with generally trace to 0.01 amounts expected. No snow accumulation is expected at the current time.

The Wednesday into Thursday forecast continues to feature a general pattern of a split flow with the southern stream moisture still well to our south and east and the mid/upper lift and moisture with the upper trough/vort max limited over central NC. This feature still tracks a bit too far north of our region to favor significant precipitation.

There may be a bit of light rain in the SE (mainly near the coast) with the southern branch moisture. This shifts NE and then we have to rely on the track of the upper level system Wednesday night and early Thursday.

There does remain uncertainty with some light precipitation associated with the upper feature Wednesday night and very early Thursday, mainly in the east. Some guidance suggests a brief period of just enough lift and moisture as the cold air surges SE into the region for some light showers, some of which potentially could be mixed with or change to snow showers. This is mainly true in the east where the cold air will have the most time to reach before precipitation exits. However, this chance would be limited and no accumulations are currently anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A much colder pattern follows the system Thursday into Friday.

A shift to much below-normal temperatures is expected Thursday as the storm exits the Mid-Atlantic coast and strong NW flow drives colder air into the region. NW wind gusts will be in the 20-30 mph range in the afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday should remain in the 30s (low 40s SE). Lows Thursday night should be 15-22. Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs in the lower- to-mid-40s.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Can't rule out some light rain on Saturday and light snow on Sunday, but guidance has come into better agreement for a dry solution and any amounts look quite limited at this time.

Within broad mid/upper troughing over the Eastern US, a shortwave will dive SE into the TN Valley on Saturday night before crossing central NC on Sunday behind another cold front that passes through central NC on Saturday night. A bit of light rain can't be ruled out with the prefrontal trough on Saturday, but similar to the midweek system, QPF if any is very low. When the shortwave energy moves through on Sunday, temperature profiles would likely be cold enough for snow if any precipitation occurs, but moisture looks very limited and the deterministic ECMWF now looks similar to the dry GFS. Given a minority of their ensemble members depict something measurable, the forecast has slight chance POPs, but any amounts again look very low.

KEY MESSAGE 5: Cold air will return on Sunday and Monday.

Behind Saturday night's cold front, temperatures will turn back to well below normal. Sunday's and Monday's highs will mostly be in the lower-to-mid-40s while lows will range from the upper-teens to mid- 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 625 AM Tuesday...

Seasonably chilly and dry high pressure will settle across the Southeast and favor VFR conditions and light SW surface winds, though with some strengthening and occasional gustiness to 15 to 18kt.

Outlook: Marginal low-level wind shear will be possible Tue night- Wed morning, followed by the possibility of very light/VFR rain Wed afternoon-evening. A band of showers may briefly increase in intensity and be accompanied by mostly MVFR restrictions Wed night- Thu morning, as an intense mid/upr-level trough and accompanying Arctic cold front sweep across the region. Strong and gusty nwly winds will also result behind that cold front through Thu.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.