textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 215 AM Thursday...

* Increased Fire danger continues to be in effect today.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 215 AM Thursday...

1) Increased fire danger continues today along with the statewide burn ban that prohibits outdoor burning.

2) Unseasonably warm Fri and Sat, then widespread showers and storms Sun with cold front passage.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger continues today along with the statewide burn ban that prohibits outdoor burning.

NC forestry officials remain concerned about the very dry fuel moisture, relative humidity values in the 35-45 percent range, and marginally breezy and gusty surface winds - all of which are forecast today. After coordination with NCFS Wednesday afternoon, it was agreed that the Fire Danger Statement should continue through at least today. The need for a continuation in subsequent days will be likely given the lack of change in the drought, dry fuels, breezy conditions, and very warm temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unseasonably warm Fri and Sat, then widespread showers and storms Sun with cold front passage.

A mid level ridge will remain the dominant feature over the Southeast Fri/Sat, with unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s. While synoptic subsidence will generally suppress activity, isolated to scattered "pulse-type" showers and storms are possible each afternoon primarily in the western Piedmont due to orographic enhancement from the mountains. Also a secondary chance for sea-breeze convection in the south and eastern counties. However, with surface dew points expected to be in the upper 50s along with poor mid-level lapse rates, CAPE values should stay below 500 J/kg. Given the lack of significant forcing and weak mid-level flow, convective coverage will be very limited.

Confidence is high for more impactful weather as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as mid and upper level troughing moves across the eastern US, bringing moderate height falls to the region. While PoPs are now 75-95% range, there remains some model divergence regarding the timing of the frontal passage. A slower solution would allow for greater daytime heating and instability. With bulk shear in the 40- 50 kt range, any storms that develop ahead of the front could become strong to severe. Total rainfall is currently expected to be between a quarter and half an inch, which will unfortunately provide only little relief for the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 615 AM Thursday...

A mixture of IFR to MVFR ceilings are favored in the 12-15z period, mainly in the Piedmont. Sub-VFR ceilings should lift by 15z, with south-southwest winds at times gusting this afternoon to near 20 knots. VFR all areas this afternoon and tonight. IFR stratus is again expected late tonight, between 09z and 12z at most locations.

Outlook: Low-level moisture will gradually deepen and support increasing probabilities of early morning IFR-MVFR stratus again Saturday morning. A cold front and chance of convection and flight restrictions will move across cntl NC on Sun.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 2: KGSO: 87/2010 KFAY: 90/1974

April 3: KFAY: 90/1934

April 4: KGSO: 87/2025 KRDU: 90/2025

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 2: KGSO: 61/1979 KRDU: 66/2024 KFAY: 66/2024

April 5: KFAY: 67/2025

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.