textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 210 PM Thursday...

* No major changes to the weekend storm system. Confidence remains high in widespread beneficial rainfall this weekend, mainly from late Sat night through Sun night, potentially into Monday as well.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 210 PM Thursday...

1) Steady light to moderate rain expected late Sat night through Sun night. While much of the rainfall will be beneficial given the current drought conditions, isolated pockets of heavier rain could lead to standing water on roads in some locations.

2) A warming trend returns, with much above normal temperatures expected by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

As of 210 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Steady light to moderate rain expected late Sat night through Sun night. While much of the rainfall will be beneficial given the current drought conditions, isolated pockets of heavier rain could lead to standing water on roads in some locations.

A deep low pressure system is still expected to move south of the region on Sunday as another low will form and strengthen off the NC coast, bringing a round of beneficial rain to central NC. Looking at the 00Z LREF, most ensemble members and the cluster analysis shows rain starting late Saturday night, however there are still differences in how late into Monday rain may stick around depending on the strength and location of the coastal low. The 50th percentile of the GEPS is showing the fastest exit, with the rain moving out of the region Monday morning, while the GEFS is showing rain until early afternoon, and the GEPS is showing light rain in the east through Monday night, potentially even into Tuesday.

In terms of rainfall amounts, the 50th percentile of the LREF is showing up to 1.25 inches of rain in the northwest to around 0.75 inches of rain in the southeast. When looking at the probabilities for over 1 inch of rain, the Triad has the highest likelihood at around 60-70%. The probability decreases as you move southeast, with the southern Coastal Plain showing a 40-50% chance of over one inch of rain. Probabilities increase to around 80-90% for all of central NC for 0.5 inches of rain. This indicates that a much needed widespread rain is expected for all of central NC. Where there is locally heavier rainfall, minor urban flooding may be possible, but widespread flash flooding is not likely at this time. Additionally, limited instability looks to be present for this event, meaning that the risk for thunderstorms will be low, however a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out especially in the southeast Sunday afternoon and evening where temperatures and dewpoints will be higher.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A warming trend returns, with much above normal temperatures expected by mid-week.

After the passage of the system Sunday into Monday, the region will return to a period of upper level ridging and surface high pressure. This will allow for a period of warming temperatures. For maximum temperatures, all of central NC looks to reach back into the 60s by Tuesday, which is around 5-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures should rise more on Wednesday and Thursday, with a return to the 70s possible Wednesday and especially Thursday. This should be between 15-20 degrees above normal. During this time, lows will also be generally in the 40s, which will be around 10-20 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1255 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the TAF period with high confidence. A backdoor cold front will settle south through the area today. Mid and high clouds are expected through around 00-02Z, then clearing to FEW/SKC later tonight. NW winds 5-10 kt this afternoon and evening, with occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt, will diminish and veer to N/NNW by sunset, all winds will become light overnight.

Outlook: VFR through Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions with rain likely Saturday night through Sunday night. VFR returns Monday with increased winds in the afternoon.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.