textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A frontal zone will waver over VA through Friday, then move south and across central NC Friday night. Low pressure will track across and offshore the Southeast Saturday and Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/

As of 115 AM Friday...

* Above normal temperatures expected.

* Light rain chances return late Friday night.

Early this morning, a front which is located over central NC will shift north as a warm front. The front is then expected to move south through the region again late tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the southwest. This will allow temperatures to rise above normal. Highs look to rise into the mid/upper 50s north to the low 60s south. Overnight, temperatures look to bottom out in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

High clouds are expecting to start overspreading the region this morning, which will lower and thicken through the evening. As the low pressure system starts to approach the region late tonight, light rain looks to start moving into the western and especially the southwestern portions of the region shortly before sunrise.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 120 AM Friday...

* Cool and Soggy Conditions Saturday

A low-amplitude southern stream shortwave trough will progress quickly across the Southeast Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday night. An accompanying weak surface cyclone tracking across Georgia and South Carolina will keep central NC in the cool, stable, NELY low-level flow regime as weak high pressure wedges in from the north. Light rain will overspread the area during the morning, resulting in a cool and soggy conditions through much of the day.

A pronounced north-to-south temperature gradient is expected, with highs across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain struggling to reach upper 30s/near 40, while the Sandhills and southern Piedmont/coastal plain warm to around 50 degrees.

Rain will taper off from west-east fashion during the evening and overnight hours as the low exits and low-level cold air advection ensues. Overnight lows will range from upper 20s north to mid 30s.

Regarding rainfall amounts, there remains considerable spread in the ensemble guidance, particularly across the southern counties where the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles approaches 1 inch. However, mean qpf amounts are settling between 0.25 to 0.50" across central NC, highest across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain counties.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 120 AM Friday

* Mostly Dry with a warming trend through mid to late week

Transient sfc high pressure will build across the area Sunday and Monday, supporting dry conditions and near-seasonable temperatures.

By Tuesday, the high shifts offshore, allowing low-level southerly return flow to develop beneath an amplifying upper level ridge. This pattern will support a steady warming trend, with highs climbing into the 60s to near 70(south)and becoming well-above normal to close out the work week.

While the broad WAA regime could support isolated to widely scattered showers late in the period, the strengthening ridge should keep the more organized precipitation chances displaced to the north and west of the area.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1240 AM Friday...

VFR conditions should prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Skies are currently mostly clear with mostly calm winds. Overnight, high cirrus is expected to start spreading over the region, which should thicken and lower through the day, but remain VFR until after 6Z. Additionally, overnight some guidance is suggesting a brief period of fog in the northern Coastal Plain, however probability and confidence is too low to include at RWI at this time. Friday afternoon, occasional northwesterly gusts may be possible, but look to remain around 10-16kts.

Outlook: Widespread rain and flight restrictions look to return on Saturday, associated with a low pressure system which will track to our north. VFR conditions will return Sunday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.