textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 946 AM Monday...

The Advisories for cold weather and black ice have been expired this morning.

There is a low probability of a brief change from light rain to some light snow at the end of the next precipitation event (which is expected to be light and much warmer than the past system) late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM Monday...

1) Bitter Cold temperatures this morning under fresh snow cover. Icy driving conditions will persist through Monday morning, and continue all day in the areas shaded from the sun.

2) Some moderating temperatures Tuesday through mid-week.

3) A couple of upper disturbances will move through the area from Tuesday night into Wednesday night, but precipitation amounts look fairly light. A brief changeover to snow at the end of the event can't be ruled out, but confidence in that occurring is low and impacts are expected to be minimal at this time.

4) Well below normal temperatures will persist through next weekend as Arctic air returns Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Bitter Cold temperatures this morning under fresh snow cover. Icy driving conditions will persist through Monday morning, and continue all day in the areas shaded from the sun.

The bitter cold will ease this afternoon with sunshine, less wind, and temperatures reaching into the upper 30s to lower 40s. This It will take all morning for the sun to do the work to get above freezing, but the afternoon will feel more comfortable. The fresh powdery snow should begin to melt efficiently in the sunny areas; however, areas with shade or north slopes will not see much melting at all. Therefore, there will continue to be issues with black ice, ice, and snow cover again tonight. Temperatures will quickly fall back into the 20s by mid-late evening with a quick re-freeze. Black ice from the light runoff this afternoon and a quick hardening of the snow/ice will occur with or just after dark. Be extra careful.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Some moderation of temperatures Tuesday through mid- week.

Expect sunshine again Tuesday with the core of the arctic air mass finally scouring out. Highs will reach into the mid/upper 40s most areas. There will be increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. With a light SW flow, the combination may keep temperatures from falling much below 32. Some areas may even see it remain above 32. This would help with potentially less re-freezing or a slower re-freezing for some areas Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A couple of upper disturbances will move through the area from Tuesday night into Wednesday night, but precipitation amounts look fairly light. The atmosphere warms just enough for rain during this period; however, a brief changeover to light snow at the end of the event still can't be ruled out Wednesday night. The timing of the cold front and whether or not a weak wave forms on the front Wednesday night will be key. Continued low confidence on the potential for a change to light snow before ending Wednesday night. Highs in the lower to mid 40s with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

QPF amounts look light, around a tenth to quarter inch SE. Again, this is expected to be mostly liquid at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Well below normal temperatures will persist through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as Arctic air returns Thursday into the weekend.

After the passage of the cold front Wednesday night, the temperatures Thursday through Sunday will remain below to well below normal. A few rounds of cold, dry air look to make their way to central NC during this time frame. This should allow high temperatures to remain in the 30s to low 40s each afternoon, with the exception of Friday afternoon which looks to rise into the mid 40s to low 50s ahead of another reinforcing dry cold front. Lows look to remain in the upper teens into the 20s each night.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1230 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hr TAF period. Some mid to high level cloudiness may move across the Triad this evening. By early Tuesday morning, guidance indicates low potential for some near sub-VFR ceilings possibly at KINT/KGSO/KRDU. However, confidence is too low to add to this TAF package (they look fleeting at best with lowest ceilings mostly pinned to the western slopes of the mountains). Otherwise expect calm conditions overnight.

Mid to high level cloudiness will increase throughout the day Tuesday as our next frontal system approaches. Any precipitation and sub-VFR conditions will hold off until ~00Z.

Outlook: Flight restrictions and light precipitation is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. A return to VFR is expected behind the system into the weekend.

Climate

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

February 1: KGSO: 27/1971 KRDU: 28/1900 KFAY: 32/1981

February 2: KGSO: 30/1951

Record Low Temperatures:

February 2: KGSO: 6/1971 KRDU: 5/1971 KFAY: 15/1971

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES