textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 137 PM Sunday...

* The ending of the rain event tonight continues to trend earlier, now late evening in the SW and 200-400 AM in the NE.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 137 PM Sunday...

1) Rain will continue this afternoon into the evening. The rain will taper off from the SW late evening into the early overnight hours.

2) Above normal temperatures this week, with limited rain chances returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 135 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The ending of the rain event tonight continues to trend earlier, now late evening in the SW and 200-500 AM in the NE.

Rain in the north and east has been light thus far, less than 0.10 of an inch. To the south and west where the rain began earlier this morning, the rainfall totals thus far were between 0.25 and 0.50 of an inch. Albemarle tallied 0.49 as of 100 PM, while Lexington reported 0.40, and Greensboro 0.43.

Rain will continue through the afternoon and well into the evening. There will be some areas with up to 0.15 to 0.20 in an hour; however, these rainfall intensities will not cause anything more than very localized poor drainage minor flooding. Most guidance continues to settle in on around an inch of rain, with up to 1.25 in some areas for storm totals.

The latest hi-res guidance continues to trend in ending the rain earlier tonight. Therefore, the rain should taper off late evening in the SW-W Piedmont and a few hours after midnight in the NE. CAD conditions over the Piedmont will keep readings in check this afternoon and fall into the upper 30s tonight. Elsewhere, temperatures will fall into the 40s overnight as the winds become NE- N and increase to 10-20 mph as low pressure tracks from SC to off the NC coast.

The skies are expected to clear from west to east Monday. The clearing for most areas will be in the morning, with cloudiness likely lingering in the NE into the mid afternoon. Monday temperatures will be coolest in the NE where the circulation of the low pressure offshore will be slower to exit. Highs should range from the lower 50s NE to 60 SW.

Monday night lows should dip into the 30-35 range, which will be the only freezing lows for some areas this week. A strong warming trend will begin on Tuesday when highs reach the 60s with sunshine and lighter winds

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures this week, with limited rain chances returning this weekend.

Temperatures will increase each day as a mid/upper level ridge and surface high pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region through the week. Maximum temperatures will be in the low/mid 60s Tuesday, which will be above normal everywhere. Highs will increase to the 70s by Thursday and Friday, which is up to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Forecast confidence decreases into Saturday, as models diverge on the timing of a cold front, however expect highs to drop closer to normal.

There will also be limited rain chances each day Thursday through Sunday as multiple shortwave troughs and fronts look to move either through or just north of the region. Although confidence remains low, a few showers cannot be ruled out Thursday and Friday, with better rain chances over the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 700 PM Sunday...

Widespread steady moderate rain is beginning to lift towards the NC/VA border. In its wake, light rain and embedded mixed character (ie showery) precipitation remains, and will continue to affect central NC through midnight. Widespread IFR/LIFR is expected at all terminals with only brief MVFR/VFR possible towards FAY as the warm front lifts just north of the terminal. Patchy dense fog is possible north of the front and where rain ceases, but predictability in terminal impacts is low. Marginal LLWS remains possible at RDU, FAY, RWI, but surface winds veering to southerly and marginal winds aloft are mitigating this risk.

Improvement to MVFR will be slow Mon morning with VFR scattering of flat cu is expected at INT, GSO, RDU, and FAY, but confidence is less at RWI through 00z Tues.

Outlook: Widespread saturated soils and light to calm winds Mon night into Tues morning will likely result radiation fog as crossover temperatures are met. Patchy to areas of dense fog will be possible, but areal coverage will depend on erosion of stratocu Mon afternoon/evening. VFR conditions are expected Tues through at least Wed night. Southwest winds will become gusty on Wed when widespread 25 to 30 kt gusts are expected.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.