textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* None at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 PM Sunday...

1) A frontal system will bring a chance for rain across the area Monday.

2) A cold front will bring a decent chance of showers and isolated storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall amounts and impacts should be low. Temperatures will turn from near to slightly below normal for the workweek to above normal over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal system will bring a chance for rain across the area Monday.

Latest sfc analysis this afternoon depicted the upstream cold front over the southern OH Valley. Here locally, subsidence has promoted mostly sunny skies with light sfc flow. Temperatures today should rise into the mid 80s under dry weather. As we pivot to this evening and tonight, weak forcing along the advancing front will trigger some upstream convection over north-central VA. As the front surges south into our area overnight, this forcing will weaken substantially and as such not expecting rain to accompany the frontal advance across central NC tonight. The front should largely clear to the NC/SC border by early to mid Monday morning. Flow behind the front will turn nely, and some gustiness up to 20 to 25 mph will be possible.

Latest guidance seems more in line with keeping any diurnal instability largely confined to the coastal areas Monday afternoon. As such, think the storm chances in our far southeast are fairly limited. Elsewhere, a weakly sheared vorticity lobe will pivot across the southern Appalachians and generate light rain Monday afternoon. Amounts should range from Trace to maybe a tenth or so up in the Triad area. Any linger rain will shift east of our area through early Tuesday night.

Despite the frontal passage, our dew points don't overly crash. As such, there is a good signal for potentially dense fog near sunrise Tuesday morning. The northern and western Piedmont may be favored given the QPF appears potentially higher up there.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will bring a decent chance of showers and isolated storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall amounts and impacts should be low. Temperatures will turn from near to slightly below normal for the workweek to above normal over the weekend.

A weak cold front will cross central NC on Wednesday night. A weak surface wave will develop along it and move NE through the southern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile a mid/upper trough with moderate 500 mb height falls of 40-60 m in 24 hours will traverse the region. This is likely to bring some showers to central NC on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. QPF in the models has increased slightly, with a quarter to half inch on average in the ensemble means, highest east. Still, instability and moisture look limited, so this will put little dent in the drought, and impacts should overall be minimal. High pressure will bring dry weather for the remainder of the period.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal from Tuesday through Friday. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, with highs in the lower-to-mid-70s and lows in the upper-40s to mid-50s. Highs will be in the upper-70s to lower-80s on Wednesday, before turning about a category cooler on Thursday and Friday behind the weak front. Warm weather will return over the weekend as the surface high moves east into the western Atlantic. Forecast highs are in the mid- to-upper-80s on Saturday and upper-80s to lower-90s on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 720 PM Sunday...

TAF period: The majority of the next 24 hours should be VFR, except restrictions should eventually arrive at INT/GSO. A cold front will move through the region tonight, but the wind should be light and variable with the passage of the cold front. However, late tonight, the wind should begin to pick up out of the northeast, with gusts actually developing by dawn. Models have been trending downward with the coverage of precipitation, but went ahead and added a tempo group for precipitation around noon tomorrow at INT/GSO where confidence in precipitation is the highest. There will be a chance of showers at other locations, but not high enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. By early/mid afternoon, lower ceilings should arrive at INT/GSO. It appears as if restrictions will hold off until 00Z Tuesday at other sites. However, if the moist air arrives more quickly, cannot rule out IFR ceilings at INT/GSO and MVFR ceilings at RDU/RWI between 18Z Monday and 00Z Tuesday. Wind gusts should also decrease Monday afternoon, but a sustained wind will remain out of the northeast.

Outlook: Minimal drying in the low-lvls behind the front may support patchy to areas of dense fog Tues morning where clearing skies and relatively calm winds can occur; greatest chances appear to be over the NC Piedmont (INT/GSO/RDU). Additional flight restrictions and rain are expected with the passage of another frontal system Wed into Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.