textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 200 AM Thursday...

* QPF has trended lower than previous forecasts (now expected to be 0.50 SE to 1.00 to 1.25 inches central and north Piedmont regions).

* The surface wave pushes east through NC today, with the surface cold front to sag south tonight and Friday. Lots of lingering low level moisture and cloudiness tonight into Friday with the NE flow.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 200 AM Thursday...

1) Beneficial rain today, lingering low clouds and possibly fog tonight, low cloudiness Friday.

2) Above normal temperatures return this weekend ahead of the next frontal system.

3) There is a chance of rain and a period of below normal temperatures early next week; however, uncertainty in the finer details remains.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Beneficial rain today, lingering low clouds and possibly fog tonight, low cloudiness Friday.

Rain has been developing/overspreading much of central NC early this morning as weak low pressure was poised to move from TN eastward across NC today. The rainfall has been light thus far, but is expected to increase in intensity and coverage through the morning across the western and north Piedmont. The rain will then spread east and southeast into the Sandhills and SE NC late morning through the afternoon. Rain is expected to taper off from the west later today, with areas of drizzle lingering well into the evening. Another weak wave may bring a chance of additional light rain, mainly in the south and east later tonight and Friday as the cold front stalls to our south.

The HREF/REFS continues to show the potential for some training along and north of the boundary today as it sags into central NC. However, the instability is low and most of the rainfall will be stratiform and along/north of the boundary. Still, the WPC and NBM still suggest many areas should come out of the event with 1 inch storm totals, with 1.25+ still possible in the central and NE Piedmont. Lower totals are expected around and SE of Fayetteville and Goldsboro.

Highs today should hold mostly in the 50s in the west and north, ranging into the 60s south and east where the steadier rain will arrive later.

The weather story tonight and Friday will likely be the lingering low overcast and even some fog potential at night. The low level NE flow will keep it overcast tonight into Friday, with only slowly increasing ceilings from under 1k feet to 3-5k feet for many areas Friday. Temperatures will dip into the 40s to lower 50s tonight, with highs Friday in the 50s for most areas, even in the SE where some additional light rain may develop with the next possible wave along the front then.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures return this weekend ahead of the next frontal system.

Saturday and Sunday should return to above normal temperatures as weak surface high pressure builds in over the region from the northeast. Highs on Saturday look to increase mainly into the mid-to- upper 60s, increasing further on Sunday into the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will be about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows will remain in the low-to-mid 40s Saturday night and decrease to the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday night cold air starts to move into the region behind a weak cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There is a chance of rain and a period of below normal temperatures early next week; however, uncertainty in the finer details remains.

Aloft, a s/w will track ewd across the mid-MS Valley Sun night, within a broadening longwave trough over the eastern US. The amplitude of this s/w as it continues ewd across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic/Carolinas Mon/Mon night varies amongst the available model guidance, as does the timing and strength of additional nrn stream shortwaves tracking ewd-esewd along the Canada- US border Mon and Tue. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will track ewd across the Great Lakes Sun/Sun night, then enewd across the Northeast US and off the New England coast Mon/Mon night. In the wake of the (potentially backdoor) cold front sliding swd across central NC Sun/Sun night, this high will ridge across the area and linger until at least Mon night. However, the strength and persistence of the ridge, as well as inverted trough development on either side of it (and its potential to erode the ridge), varies amongst the medium-range guidance. Should the s/w aloft be more amplified and there be precipitation into the cold air at the surface, CAD may take hold and strengthen the ridge over the region, keeping skies cloudy and temperatures lower.

There highest chance for precipitation is Mon/Mon night, some of which could be wintry in nature as the cold air chases the precipitation out of the area Mon night, especially along the VA border. However, the bulk of it is expected to be liquid for now. Temperatures Mon/Mon night will be below normal. Decreasing confidence in forecast details Tue and Wed.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1252 AM Thursday...

Areas of rain will become widespread across much of the region today, then shift east this evening. Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will develop with the rain by 12z over the Piedmont, reaching the KRWI area by 15z and KFAY by early afternoon. The rain will gradually taper off to areas of light rain/drizzle late this afternoon and evening. However, low level moisture is now expected to linger through the night tonight - with IFR to LIFR cigs expected. VSBYS may lower again below MVFR (more on that in later forecasts).

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Friday into a good part of the weekend behind this system.

Another chance of flight restrictions and rain will result in cold air damming early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.