textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 200 AM Monday...

1) The weak boundary moving through the region overnight will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along the I-95 corridor this afternoon.

2) There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, with the primary threat coming from damaging wind.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The weak boundary moving through the region overnight will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along the I-95 corridor this afternoon.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through central North Carolina overnight. That boundary will make its way past the I- 95 corridor and stall across eastern North Carolina this afternoon. The bulk of the rain will stay to the east of the area, but there will be a slight chance for showers between US-1 and I-95 and a better chance for showers east of I-95. Thunderstorms will be possible, but with minimal wind shear, the threat for any severe thunderstorms is minimal with a lack of organization. While highs will still be a few degrees below normal, highs will return to the mid 80s to lower 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, with the primary threat coming from damaging wind.

Low pressure currently over the northern Plains will move southeast, reaching Lake Erie by Tuesday morning then drifting east into New York through Wednesday. While the low will stall out, the associated cold front is expected to continue pushing southeast, moving through central North Carolina around sunset Tuesday night. Modest wind shear will be present as the front moves through, although the amount of available instability will be dependent on the exact timing that the front moves through. With a deep layer of dry air well above the surface, the greatest potential for severe weather will come from downbursts. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center is also showing the potential for large hail primarily north and west of the Triangle and a minimal chance of a tornado north and east of the Triangle. Much of the area is also under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front, Tuesday may be the warmest day of the week, with most locations having highs in the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 645 AM Monday...

TAF period: Although widespread restrictions were forecast across local terminals, as of 1045Z, only GSO (fog/stratus) and RWI (fog) have had any restrictions develop. These restrictions should ease up shortly after sunrise, with widespread VFR conditions expected through the day. While there should be a modest area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern North Carolina, it appears that the bulk of the coverage should remain to the east of RWI and have kept that terminal's forecast dry.

Outlook: Fog/stratus will be possible again Tuesday morning, although it appears there will be a greater likelihood for flight restrictions away from INT/GSO. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms appears likely Tuesday afternoon at INT/GSO/RDU and Tuesday evening at RDU/RWI/FAY. Flight restrictions could be possible Wednesday morning anywhere that receives modest rainfall on Tuesday, then dry VFR conditions are forecast through Friday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.