textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 300 AM Thursday...

* Nothing appreciable

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM Thursday...

1) Areas of fog and very low overcast along and just offshore the South Atlantic coast will develop/advect inland and across the ern Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each morning through the weekend.

2) Very warm to near record breaking temperatures will prevail from Thursday through at least the middle of next week, with highs around 15-20 degrees above normal and lows around 20-25 degrees above normal. While at least isolated showers can't be ruled out each day, the best chance of showers and storms comes on Sunday/Monday and again on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of fog and very low overcast along and just offshore the South Atlantic coast will develop/advect inland and across the ern Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each morning through the weekend.

Onshore flow, around what will become a persistent sub-tropical high that will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states, will transport an increasingly-moist airmass inland, such that surface dewpoints mostly in the low-mid 50s F over cntl NC this morning will increase to upr 50s to low-mid 60s by this weekend. This pattern will favor the inland development/advection of fog and low overcast into the NC Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills each morning, with SREF and HREF probabilities that favor greatest coverage Fri through Sun morning, as the aforementioned surface dewpoints maximize. That which has developed this morning appears most likely to impact Sampson Co., and perhaps adjacent portions of Wayne and Cumberland counties, based on satellite and observational trends over sern NC this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Very warm to near record breaking temperatures will prevail from Thursday through at least the middle of next week, with highs around 15-20 degrees above normal and lows around 20-25 degrees above normal. While at least isolated showers can't be ruled out each day, the best chance of showers and storms comes on Sunday/Monday and again on Wednesday.

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify over New England Friday into the weekend while sfc high pressure remains anchored offshore. This will lock in largely swly flow through much of the lower to mid levels and associated moisture advection and above normal temperatures (reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s much of the period.) The deepest moisture should largely stay to our west Thursday, but can't rule out an afternoon shower/storm along the foothills/western Piedmont. By Friday, the deeper moisture starts to migrate east, and with it we'll see continued afternoon isolated to scattered showers/storms primarily in our western areas. By Saturday, and especially into Sunday, the mid-level ridge will break-down. This will allow highly anomalous moisture to spill east across our area with pre-frontal showers and storms likely especially on Sunday/early Monday. Still a bit out, but we may need to monitor shear and marginal severe potential on Sunday. Showers and scattered storms will linger Monday and Tuesday as a jet lifts over us and offshore.

Beyond Monday, there appears to be a signal for a temporary re- amplification of the mid-level ridge up the eastern seaboard on Tuesday ahead of a strong mid to upper level Baja low. This may allow yet another warm up into the lower to mid 80s (although lingering clouds and precipitation may dampen these highs a bit). Additional rain chances will continue into middle to late next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 650 AM Thursday...

An area of VLIFR-IFR fog and stratus has developed and rapidly expanded in the past few hours across SC and srn NC, the nrn edge of which extended at 1150Z from near VUJ to TTA to GSB, including FAY. Some may reach even Piedmont sites and RWI in the form of few to perhaps briefly broken 500-1200 ft AGL cloud bases through around 15Z. Otherwise, swly surface winds will strengthen and become gusty into the mid teens to low 20s kts from late morning through mid-late afternoon, then diminish by sunset.

Outlook: Areas of fog and/or stratus will likely develop over the ern Carolinas and portions of the cntl Carolinas each morning through the weekend, with relative highest probability of occurrence at FAY and RWI and with greatest areal coverage into portions of the Piedmont Fri-Sat. Additionally, a weakening frontal system will settle into cntl NC, with an associated likely probability of convection and flight restrictions, on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 5: KGSO: 81/1967 KRDU: 83/1967 KFAY: 87/1976

March 6: KGSO: 78/2022 KRDU: 82/1967 KFAY: 86/1918

March 7: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 85/1974 KFAY: 84/1961

March 8: KGSO: 83/2000 KRDU: 87/1974 KFAY: 87/1974

March 9: KGSO: 81/1974 KRDU: 84/2009 KFAY: 87/1974

March 10: KGSO: 78/2016 KRDU: 81/1974 KFAY: 84/1974

March 11: KGSO: 86/1967 KRDU: 85/1925 KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 5: KGSO: 61/1976 KRDU: 65/1976 KFAY: 63/1976

March 6: KGSO: 64/1967 KRDU: 64/1967 KFAY: 65/1961

March 7: KGSO: 63/1956 KRDU: 64/1956 KFAY: 65/1961

March 8: KGSO: 57/1946 KRDU: 60/1946 KFAY: 63/1961

March 9: KGSO: 61/1921 KRDU: 61/1921 KFAY: 62/1980

March 10: KGSO: 58/2016 KRDU: 57/2020 KFAY: 65/1964

March 11: KGSO: 62/2016 KRDU: 63/2016 KFAY: 63/2016

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.