textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered MinT for tonight (Friday night) and Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 1255 AM Friday...

1) Dry air, clear skies, and light winds tonight over the Piedmont will lead to lows in the lower to mid 40s. It will be a bit warmer in the Coastal Plain where the northerly wind will remain up around 5-12 mph overnight as low pressure strengthens well off the mid- Atlantic coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Excellent weather for the upcoming weekend across our region with temperatures very close to normal by day - and a bit on the cool side by night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Dry and becoming seasonably warm most of the week. The next chance of showers holds off until very late in the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 1255 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry air, clear skies, and light winds tonight over the Piedmont will lead to lows in the lower to mid 40s. It will be a bit warmer in the Coastal Plain where the northerly wind will remain up around 5-12 mph overnight as low pressure strengthens well off the mid-Atlantic coast.

As low pressure strengthens off the mid-Atlantic coast today and tonight and moves slowly north, strong dry and cool advection will allow the dew points to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s over the W-NW Piedmont this afternoon into tonight. Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs generally 70-73 with a gusty N wind at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. The stronger winds (up to 35 mph) are expected in the Coastal Plain. These highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal.

The lows tonight will be the coolest since May with readings in the 40-45 range in the Piedmont, and generally 15 to 20 degrees below normal. This will be due to the very dry air, diminishing wind to light, and clear skies. The lows tonight should be 5-10 degrees warmer in the Coastal Plain where the surface and boundary layer will remain mixed keeping the north wind stirring.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Excellent weather for the upcoming weekend across our region with temperatures very close to normal by day - and a bit on the cool side by night.

Mostly sunny skies are expected this weekend; however, the skies may become partly sunny at times in the NE Saturday due to some cloudiness from the low pressure off the mid-Atlantic and New England coast that will be moving very slowly. Highs will recover into the mid 70s to lower 80s Saturday and mostly in the lower 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s west and lower 50s east with mainly clear skies. These lows will again be well below normal through the weekend (by 10-15 degrees).

The next chance of showers may hold off until the end of the upcoming work week as high pressure dominates the SE states through at least Thursday. Lows will moderate into the 50s mid-week then 60s late week. Highs will generally be in the 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Dry and becoming seasonably warm most of the week. The next chance of showers holds off until very late in the week.

The next chance of showers will likely hold off until Friday as an upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen over the SE states well into the upcoming week (and possibly into next weekend). Temperatures will return to above normal levels especially Thursday and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 645 AM Friday...

VFR conditions should prevail today. The chance MVFR ceilings in the east (RWI) this morning have decreased, so took out the TEMPO with the 12Z TAF. The main hazard today will be gusty northerly winds this afternoon. Gusts up to 18-22 kts may be possible at all terminals this morning through this afternoon.

Outlook: A dry/continental airmass will remain over cntl NC and favor VFR conditions for at least the next several days.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.