textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 252 AM Friday...

* Areas of fog, then a chance of rain mainly south and east today.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 252 AM Friday...

1) Above normal temperatures return this weekend ahead of the next chance of precipitation.

2) A chance for wintry precipitation returns for the beginning of next week, but low confidence in precipitation type and amounts.

3) Spring-like temperatures return for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 252 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of fog early today. Above normal temperatures return this weekend ahead of the next chance of precipitation.

We will have one more very gloomy day with low clouds, fog, and areas of rain before light at the end of the tunnel. Areas of fog this morning will most likely be alleviated by the thickening mid level clouds and some rain arriving this morning. The rain will be mainly across areas from Charlotte to Fayetteville to Goldsboro and points south and east as another weak wave of low pressure tracks along the front to our south, then offshore tonight. Some light rain and drizzle may make it as far north and west as the Triangle Area by late morning into the early afternoon. It will also be another day with very cool temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s NE to S. Areas of fog are possible again later tonight into early Saturday as the low levels remain nearly saturated and there is no significant feature to scour it out quickly.

On a brighter note, both Saturday and Sunday should return to above normal temperatures as weak surface high pressure builds overhead and north of the region. This should allow highs on Saturday to rise into the 60s, increasing further on Sunday into the upper 60s to mid 70s with additional sunshine and a SW flow. This will be about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows will remain in the low-to-mid 40s Saturday night and decrease to the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday night cold air starts to move into the region behind a backdoor cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low probability of wintry mix Monday into Tuesday morning, but predominant precip type, and amounts remain uncertain.

A chance for wintry precipitation returns for the beginning of next week, but low confidence in precipitation type and amounts.

After a warm weekend, high temperatures will plunge 20-25 degrees from Sunday to Monday as high pressure moves into the Northeast and the wind begins to come from the northeast. In addition to the wedge of cold air, isentropic ascent is expected to result in an area of precipitation somewhere across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast, but there is a lack of agreement from models as to how far south this precipitation will extend. The GFS/GEFS continue to show a more southern track with the system, bringing more precipitation to North Carolina, while the ECMWF/EPS have a more northern track, with the bulk of the precipitation remaining to the north and just clipping North Carolina. As to the precipitation type, models are suggesting that there could be enough warm air aloft to melt any falling snow, meaning that precipitation would reach the ground as sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. The precipitation type would be of greatest concern around sunrise Tuesday. Uncertainty remains high with the system, although overall liquid amounts of precipitation remain on the low side.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Spring-like temperatures return for the middle of next week.

Although there will be a low chance of rain Wednesday into Thursday, there will be no precipitation type concerns during that time period. As high pressure moves offshore, the wind direction will turn to the southwest, bringing much warmer temperatures back into the forecast. Highs should return to the 60s and lower 70s on Wednesday, with the temperature rising an additional five degrees on Thursday. Lows will be in the 40s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 639 AM Friday...

LIFR cigs will be accompanied by areas of IFR to LIFR fog over most of the region this morning. Areas of light rain and drizzle will also result areawide, with some steadier rain that will likely affect srn NC, including over and especially just south of FAY today. Ceilings will be slow to lift through IFR today and will lower again with sunset tonight. LIFR conditions are expected tonight and early Saturday.

Outlook: Morning fog and stratus will be possible both Sat and Sun morning, followed by another chance of flight restrictions, and mainly a cold light rain/drizzle in cold air damming, early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.