textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Made a downward adjustment to high temperatures on Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 235 PM Tuesday...

1) Hot and dry through Wednesday.

2) Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and dry through Wednesday.

Surface high pressure is located off the SE coast with mid-level ridging over the region. This is allowing for the extended period of southerly winds bringing hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions to continue through Wednesday. This afternoon, temperatures are still expected to rise generally into the mid 90s. Low level thicknesses are similar tomorrow afternoon, suggesting that highs should rise into the mid 90s again. Lows both nights also look to only drop into the mid-to-upper 60s, which will provide little relief from the heat. Thus, the HeatRisk both days is mostly Moderate (level 2 of 4), with a few isolated patches of Major (3 of 4). This means that heat may effect those without access to cooling and hydration, especially those who are sensitive to heat.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances return Thursday, with chances persisting into early next week. Low confidence in high temps Thursday and especially Friday.

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge may once again strengthen and lift newd across the region Thu night through Sat, with several s/w disturbances tracking across the Plains and MS Valley. A s/w will clip the region over the weekend, with high pressure strengthening again off the Southeast US coast early next week. At the surface, cold front approaching from the north will slide southward across central NC Thu aft/eve. A CAD air mass should set up through Fri/Fri night as high pressure tracking across the Northeast US ridges swd into the area and warm, moist air overruns the cool, stable boundary layer resulting in overcast skies and rain. Still expect the wedge to erode Sat/Sat night, with the front lifting nnwwd back across the area. However, the spread in available guidance increases beyond from Sat onward, with significant differences and forecast implications for central NC. The EC erodes the wedge on by Sat night, while the GFS keeps it in place into Mon.

Precipitation: The best chances for showers/storms will be Thu along and ahead of the backdoor cold front as it moves into and across the area. In the wake of the front, warm air advecting in above the cooler, stable boundary layer could result in some light rain through at least Fri/Fri night over central NC. Regardless of what happens with the wedge, expect daily chances for precipitation Sat- Mon, with temperatures and instability the primary areas of uncertainty. Where/when the wedge erodes and a warm front lifts nwd across the area, there will be the chance for additional diurnally driven convection on the warm side of the boundary, while rain will be favored north of it.

Temperatures: Highs Thu will be impacted by the timing of the front and the convection ahead/along it. For now, expect highs ranging from mid 80s north to low 90s south. There is a large bust potential wrt highs on Fri given the potential for CAD to briefly set up and possible continued rain into it. For now have highs ranging from upper 60s north to low/mid 80s south, but with below average confidence. Lows Thu and Fri nights expected to range from mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Generally expect temperatures to moderate back to near/slightly above normal over the weekend and early next week, but that will depend on when the wedge erodes.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 158 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are generally expected at the TAF sites over the 24 hour TAF period. An exception to this will be if fog is able to move far enough inland. A similar airmass will be in place tonight, which should allow for the formation of fog tonight in a similar location as this previous morning. Thus, kept the tempo for sub-VFR visibilities and potentially low ceilings at FAY. Otherwise, this afternoon expect southerly to southwesterly winds at around 8-12 kts, with a few gusts up to 18 kts possible and mostly clear skies.

Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and embedded storms along with gusty winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022

May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025

May 23: KFAY: 72/2011

May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000

May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.