textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 310 AM Saturday...

1) A pair of weak upper-level disturbances and a northward advancing cold front will produce considerable cloudiness today along with a chance of some spotty light rain this morning and a few afternoon showers. Most locations will be dry, rain amounts should be insignificant, and impacts to most outdoor plans limited.

2) A pair of cold fronts will bring a chance of showers, the first Sunday night into Monday and the second on late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Overall amounts and impacts should be low.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A pair of weak upper-level disturbances and a northward advancing cold front will produce considerable cloudiness today along with a chance of some spotty light rain this morning and a few afternoon showers. Most locations will be dry, rain amounts should be insignificant, and impacts to most outdoor plans limited.

A return flow will develop today as surface high pressure moves further away from the mid-Atlantic and a weak warm front lifts north across the area. Low level and deep layer moisture will increase with dew points increasing into the mid 50s to around 60 by late this afternoon. At the same time a couple of disjointed mid-level shortwaves will move across the region with one moving across the mid Atlantic and a weaker system moving across GA/SC. with the better, albeit still weak, forcing bypassing central NC, any precipitation coverage will be limited today. Hi resolution guidance hints at two prospects for precipitation, first some low level isentropic lift may generate some some spotty rain mainly across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain this morning. There's a risk of a few showers this afternoon into this evening across any part of the area, but primarily the eastern Piedmont, Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A rogue thunderstorm is possible although instability will be very limited generally a few hundred unit s of CAPE at best. The mid level flow is enhanced with 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 kts, but with weak updrafts, the risk of a strong storm is rather limited. The rain chances with both systems are very limited in terms of coverage, probability and precipitation amounts if it occurs.

High temperatures should range in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows tonight will be moderating by increasing moisture and clouds with lows ranging in the mid 50s to around 60. Some patchy fog or low stratus is possible late tonight, especially across southern and southeastern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of cold fronts will bring a chance of showers, the first Sunday night into Monday and the second on late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Overall amounts and impacts should be low.

Much of Sunday should be dry and warmer. However, there is a low end chance of showers in the far SE, associated with a weak upper disturbance that will exit early in the day. Highs will warm into the lower to mid-80s. A cold front is forecast to move SE through the region Sunday night and early Monday. This will bring a chance of showers, with some areas in the SE possibly achieving likely POP Monday morning. However, most of the western and northern sections may see very little shower activity. The fleeting moisture and instability will be most favorable in the SE. But even there, QPF is only in the quarter to half inch range. Lesser amounts are forecast over the Piedmont. Regardless, the shower chances will exit Monday afternoon with additional dry weather to follow Tuesday. It will be much cooler Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A second cold front may bring a chance of showers late Wednesday into early Thursday. Rainfall amounts look even lighter and impacts should again be minimal. Warming temperatures into the 70s are expected, with 80s by the end of the week with dry weather.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.