textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 215 AM Monday...

* Temperatures trended slightly cooler late week into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 215 AM Monday...

1) Widespread frost possible for much of central North Carolina Wednesday and Thursday morning.

2) Dry conditions expected to intensify fire weather concerns through the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Widespread frost possible for much of central North Carolina Wednesday and Thursday morning.

In the wake of Sunday's initial cold front followed by Monday night's secondary frontal passage, strong surface high pressure will settle across the Mid Atlantic Tuesday through late week. This will provide a continued infusion of cooler and drier air to central NC, along with relatively light overnight winds and favorable conditions for radiational cooling both Tuesday night and again Wednesday night. NBM temperatures have been slowly trending downward for both nights, now showing lows in the mid 30s along the NC/VA border for Tuesday night and closer to 40 across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain. Given the strength and position of the surface ridge, along with gradual downward trends from the NBM and other ensemble guidance, it's conceivable that portions of central NC could see at least some frost Wednesday morning and Thursday morning especially along and north of US-64. Warmer temperatures will return late in the week, ending the frost threat for the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 ... Dry conditions expected to intensify fire weather concerns through the week.

One other effect of the aforementioned cold frontal passages will be increased winds and substantially lower humidities across central NC. While nearly everyone saw rainfall on Sunday, many spots saw less than a quarter of an inch and only a few saw upwards of a half inch. This will be the only appreciable rainfall for the next week as the next 7 days are essentially completely dry. The combination of continued lack of rainfall, dry dewpoints, and increased winds could result in elevated fire weather concerns from mid week onward, perhaps as early as Tuesday when afternoon RH values will fall to around 25-35 percent areawide. Similar values are expected Wednesday afternoon although increased onshore flow Thursday and Friday may provide some temporary relief for the Coastal Plain with RH values closer to 50%.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 630 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 12Z TAF period as high pressure continues to build into the area from the west. The primary concern through the morning hours remains the lingering pressure gradient, which is could surface winds slightly elevated, though not confident enough to keep gusts (of 15 to 20kts) in 12 TAF. While most sites are seeing sustained N-NW winds of 5-10KT, the best chance for a few gusts will be at the eastern sites.

As the ridge axis centers over the Piedmont later this morning, winds will gradually diminish and veer slightly more NW to W. Sky conditions will remain mostly clear of low-level ceilings, but a mix of mid and high-clouds is expected through this afternoon and evening.

Outlook: VFR expected to continue through most of next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.