textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Thursday, Thursday night, Friday trending drier

* Saturday trending slightly wetter

KEY MESSAGES

As of 215 PM Sunday...

1) Some CAD erosion this afternoon, with scattered convection possible through the overnight period

2) Moist and muggy through mid week with high probabilities for precipitation

3) Thursday will be a transition day from muggy conditions to cooler weather for the weekend

DISCUSSION

As of 215 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Some CAD erosion this afternoon, with scattered convection possible through the overnight period

Starting to see thinning of the wedge cloud deck this afternoon with locations generally along and east of US-1 reaching the mid to upper 70s. Further southeast, sea-breeze induced forcing along with convergence along the leading edge of the CAD boundary has triggered convection in the MHX and ILM CWAs. The Cu field is deepening in the southern Coastal Plain, and some isolated to scattered convection is likely to initiate over the next several hours. This convection will generally retreat northward along the CAPE gradient through early evening. Poor lapse rates and weak shear will preclude any concerning storms. Convection should peter out with sunset. An additional wave of showers associated with an MCV trekking through Alabama this afternoon will be possible tonight. Highest chances will be across the western piedmont with this wave of showers. Any lingering showers should diminish through sunrise.

Stratus will sock back in tonight, and some lowering of the cloud base may lead to patchy fog similar to recent mornings.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm and unseasonably humid/muggy through mid-week, with above average chances of rain/convection

While the wedge that plagued central North Carolina on Saturday and Sunday will have moved to the north by Monday, a stationary front will remain along the length of the Ohio River and then extending south along the Mississippi River. In addition, the Bermuda high will continue to provide southerly moist flow across the southeastern United States. The combination of the stationary front and the flow will remain as a focus for showers and thunderstorms through the first half of the week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are all expected to be mostly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, although it will not rain continuously. There is low predictability as to when particular impulses will move along the front and increase the chance of rain locally. Unlike this weekend, where the wedge kept stable air across the area and there was minimal thunderstorm coverage, there should be greater thunderstorm coverage during the week, although a lack of shear this far away from the front should prevent any thunderstorms from becoming severe. Highs will generally be in the 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Trending milder and progressively drier, with respect to both humidity and rain chances late week into next weekend

Thursday appears likely to be the warmest day out of the next seven, although the forecast has been trending drier that day with the portion of the stationary front along the Ohio River finally beginning to drop to the south. Thursday night and Friday should be the driest 24 hour period in the next week, but after that, the front will then become hung up over South Carolina during the weekend. Being on the cooler side of the front, highs on Saturday and Sunday should only be in the 70s. The rain chances will increase for Saturday and Sunday, particularly across southern counties closer to the front.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 750 PM Sunday...

Through 00Z Tuesday: The sea breeze boundary continues to move NW fairly quickly this evening and has nearly reached RDU. Isold to scat showers along that boundary have decreased substantially in coverage the past hour, with VFR conditions now across all of central NC, including the Triad. Meanwhile sfc dwpts have steadily increasing across central NC from SE to NW during the past several hours, so look for flt conditions to quickly fall back to MVFR after sunset, then IFR or lower by midnight with stratus developing across much of central NC. Look for cigs to only gradually improve between 12-16Z Monday, perhaps becoming low-VFR by afternoon. However by then, another round of scattered showers/tstms are expected, which may locally reduce flt conditions at times.

Outlook: Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through the period, along with morning fog or stratus. While still uncertain, there is perhaps a signal for drier weather to return Friday into next weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.