textproduct: Raleigh
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* No appreciable changes.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 1242 PM Sunday...
1) A continuation of dry and seasonable conditions is expected through the week, with above normal temperatures late this week and weekend.
DISCUSSION
As of 1242 PM Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A continuation of dry and seasonable conditions is expected through the week, with above normal temperatures late this week and weekend.
A sub-tropical ridge will progress slowly eastward and across the Southeast this week, then drift off the South Atlantic coast by next weekend. Largely seasonal temperatures will persist this upcoming week with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A moisture-starved backdoor cold front will move in early Wednesday and result in a reinforcing shot of cool high pressure at least through Thursday.
A warming trend is favored late this week and weekend, where temperatures in the mid to upper 70s will be the norm. A few spots could touch 80 degrees given the expected rise in low-level thicknesses.
As for rain chances, they are slim at best. Some ensemble systems are indicating a chance next Sunday to early next week with perhaps a system building east from the TN valley. But then, other solutions keep a ridge well in place and suppress precipitation. At this stage, we should stay dry through the end of October.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1242 PM Sunday...
There is high confidence in VFR conditions through most of the TAF period. Gusts out of the northeast are expected over the eastern terminals of 15-20 kt. These winds will diminish by sunset, leading to light northeast flow through the remainder of the period. There remains the potential for shallow radiation fog Monday morning. The 12z HREF/REFS continue to paint a period of sub-VFR visibilities across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, likely a result of more favorable crossover temperatures. The best chance appears at RWI, but could secondarily impact RDU briefly. For now, introduced a period of MVFR at RDU and a period of IFR at RWI.
Outlook: A reinforcing, moisture-starved cold front will move across NC Tue night, with following northeasterly flow that will result in a risk of MVFR ceilings Wed and Thu morning. VFR should prevail otherwise.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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