textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 120 PM Saturday...

* Patchy light rain in the far southeast this afternoon, otherwise dry. * Areas of dense fog likely tonight.

* Below normal temperatures expected.

A frontal system remains stalled off the NC coast, with the associated low pressure well to our northeast. This has left weak high pressure over the region. This should keep the majority of central NC dry, with exception of the far southeast where patchy light rain associated with the frontal boundary looks to be possible over the next several hours. Temperatures this afternoon will stay below normal for this time of year and are generally expected to reach the low to mid 40s.

Additionally, in the overnight hours dense fog looks to be probable. The HREF is showing the probability of visibilities less than 0.5 miles between about 50-70% for much of the region, with the higher probabilities focused mostly in the southwest and to a lesser extent the northeast regions of the CWA. Low temperatures overnight look to dip at or below freezing everywhere, with mid/upper 20s in the north. This means that anywhere fog may develop, freezing fog is possible when temperatures are at and below freezing.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As of 120 PM Saturday...

* Continued fog expected into the morning hours.

* Temperatures slightly warmer than today, but still below normal.

Weak high pressure will continue to pass through the mid-Atlantic through the day on Sunday ahead of an approaching trough and associated cold front. Through the morning hours, areas of potentially dense fog will slowly dissipate with the daytime heating. After fog dissipates, partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the afternoon, with increasing cloudiness overnight as the cold front approaches. Increased low level thicknesses will support slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday. Thus, highs are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows dipping in the upper 20s to mid 30s. While most of the precipitation with the front looks to hold off until after daybreak on Monday, there is a possibility of some very light rain reaching western portions of the region late Sunday night. Temperature profiles do not look conducive of any wintry precipitation before sunrise on Monday at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 130 PM Saturday. . .

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues. -Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont. -Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday.

A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across portions of the northern Piedmontgenerally from Rocky Mount to Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation will exit the region by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid- Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for black ice during the Tuesday morning commute. High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday morning. Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late Thursday afternoonmainly across the NW Piedmontbefore a front sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 155 PM SATURDAY...

Most sites are reporting IFR conditions with 600 to 700 ft ceilings this afternoon. As a long string of low to mid clouds stream from the southwest across the region expect cloud coverage to continue through the afternoon and evening hours. While some lifting of ceilings is expected, clearing of skies is not expected at this time. Models suggest any scattering to MVFR or VFR will be later that afternoon and early evening. Flight improvements will be brief as dense fog looks likely tonight with no airmass change and less high clouds than this morning. Fog could develop as early as 02-04Z and persist through the entire night and Sunday early Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected to return after the fog lifts mid morning with BKN to SCT high clouds over the region.

Outlook: A clipper system will induce light rain/snow mix that may change to light snow, especially across northern areas Monday afternoon. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. Another weather system will move into the region Thursday afternoon beginning another round of sub-VFR conditions.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.