textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Forecasted wind gusts are steadily rising from Tuesday through Thursday night surrounding the cold frontal passage.

* Precipitation chances continue to gradually increase for late Wednesday night through Thursday.

* Aviation forecast discussion has been updated to reflect the 12z TAF forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 215 AM Sunday...

1) Marginal fire weather concerns are expected Monday and Tuesday, with the greatest risk occurring Tuesday afternoon.

2) A cold front will bring showers and isolated strong storms to the region Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

As of 215 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Marginal fire weather concerns are expected Monday and Tuesday, with the greatest risk occurring Tuesday afternoon.

Marginal fire weather concerns exist for both Monday and Tuesday due to a dry air mass and increasing gusts ahead of a cold front. The most significant concerns are expected Tuesday afternoon. As surface high pressure shifts eastward, southwesterly return flow will strengthen, though moisture recovery will remain slow. This will cause dewpoints to mix out into the upper 30s to mid-40s across the Piedmont and Sandhills both days. However, Tuesday will have much stronger gusts, with south-southwest gusts reaching 2535 mph over the Piedmont and Sandhills, compared to the 1520 mph gusts expected on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will bring showers and isolated strong storms to the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the arrival of precipitation across central NC, though some variance remains concerning the intensity and exact exit timing of the system on Thursday. Showers and storms are expected to begin across the NW Piedmont as early as Wednesday morning, with chances increasing areawide as the day progresses and moisture surges northward.

The best forcing for this system will arrive on Thursday in tandem with the passage of a cold front. Ahead of the cold front and as it shifts across the region expect gusty winds up to 35 mph. This frontal forcing, combined with available instability, will provide the highest chance for storms during the Thursday afternoon and evening hours. While models are still slightly inconsistent on the timing of the departure, current trends suggest the front should clear the region by late Thursday night, allowing cool high pressure to ridge in thereafter. One potential limiting factor to monitor is the extent of cloud cover late Wednesday into early Thursday, which could limit the destabilization needed for stronger storm development.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 630 AM Sunday...

Drier air advecting across the Carolinas at the surface has dispersed the risk for AM mist with VFR and clear skies expected throughout the TAF period. Northwest wind gusts will increase to around 15 kts through early/mid afternoon before gradually relaxing and backing to westerly by sunset.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Tues. Southwest winds will become gusty (20-30kts) by Tues as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the Mid- Atlantic with LLWS possible Tues night. Sub-VFR conditions, showers and storms, and continued gusty conditions are expected Wed through Thurs as a cold from traverses the region.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.