textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Addition of a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk to the Triad late this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 240 PM Wednesday...

1) Conditional threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening across northern and western counties.

2) Above normal temperatures return today, with unusual and potentially dangerous heat Thu/Fri. The heat may abate a bit Sat, but temps will stay well above normal through Sun.

3) Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will continue each day Friday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily across the Triad.

The primary focus of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon has occurred to the north across Virginia with a line of storms that originally tracked across Ohio and West Virginia and continues to move east-southeast. While the bulk of this activity is expected to remain to the north across Virginia, the western end of the line could move into northern North Carolina. In addition, SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather primarily across the Triad for strong wind gusts. Despite the low cloud cover that was across the area for much of the morning, there are some breaks in the high clouds and diurnal cumulus has formed, with up to 2000 J/kg of instability available for thunderstorm development. A lack of wind shear should minimize any widespread threat of strong thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms have formed away from the primary line in Virginia, so this is not the only threat area for precipitation. Any precipitation should generally be winding down by sunset, with all rain done by midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures with unusual and potentially dangerous heat Thu/Fri. Temps will stay well above normal through early next week.

Widespread high temperatures around 90 degrees are likely across central North Carolina this afternoon, and the mercury will continue to rise tomorrow. All locations should rise into the 90s, and an isolated triple digit reading cannot be ruled out. Flow out of the south is continuing to bring additional moisture into the area, and this will allow many places to have a heat index in the low 100s tomorrow. There is the potential for heat indices to reach 105 northeast of Raleigh tomorrow, which is the local criteria for heat advisories. After collaborating with neighboring offices, have decided to hold off on issuing an advisory at this time. Despite the lack of a heat advisory, anybody who is outside and active tomorrow should be sure to take the necessary precautions to remain well hydrated.

Temperatures will continue to be warm on Friday with potentially dangerous heat as highs will reach triple digits in portions of Central NC again. Latest guidance shows highs in the mid-90s across the NW Piedmont and upper 90s elsewhere, with the Triangle and portions of the Coastal Plain reaching triple digits. Friday will be the hottest day, and with overnight lows only dropping into the 70s, the lack of overnight relief will significantly impact the heat risk. Consequently, heat advisories will likely be needed Friday as the risk for sudden heat illnesses spikes. On Friday, there is a high chance of almost all of central North Carolina reaching a Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4), which can adversely impact anyone without adequate cooling. However, chance of showers and storms late Friday afternoon and evening could help alleviate some of the heat Friday afternoon, but if storms hold off until early evening- temperatures will stay on track for near record temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances will continue each day through early next week with best chance Monday and Tuesday.

While much of Thursday will be dry, another MCS is expected to develop to the north of the area and track to the southeast Thursday afternoon, with areas northeast of Raleigh the most likely to have rain around sunset. The forecast reflects this, although confidence in the particulars is low due to the forecast depending on thunderstorms that have not yet developed. Friday onward there will be daily afternoon chances for showers and storms across the region. A weak cold front will move into the region late Friday evening into early Saturday morning before stalling out over the weekend. Another frontal boundary will slowly move across the Mid-Atlantic region bringing increased chances of showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 735 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are generally expected at the TAF sites over the 24 hour TAF period. Overnight, scattered low clouds will be possible, otherwise expect winds to remain southwesterly around 5-8 kts. Thursday afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms may be possible anywhere in central NC, however the exact timing and location are unclear at this time.

Outlook: Thursday evening starting at around 00Z looks to have a better chance for rain and the associated restrictions, with rain possible mostly in the northeast. Otherwise, the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue each day through Monday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 10: KFAY: 99/2008

June 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926

June 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022

June 15: KRDU: 99/2015 KFAY: 101/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 10: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 76/2020

June 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981

June 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926

June 16: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2015

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.