textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Further reduced high temperatures for Saturday afternoon

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 PM Saturday...

1) Cold wedge keeps temperatures well below normal this afternoon into tonight, along with increasing rain chances this evening

2) Extended period of unsettled weather and rain chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold wedge keeps temperatures well below normal this afternoon into tonight, along with increasing rain chances this evening

As of 2pm, the eastern edge of the wedge is just east of the forecast area, with many locations in eastern North Carolina in the low to mid 80s for temperatures. Meanwhile, easternmost counties in the Raleigh forecast area are only in the 60s and lower 70s, with locations north and west of Raleigh remaining in the 50s. While some thunderstorms developed on the warm side of the wedge and are moving towards Cumberland and Sampson counties, they will be short lived as they move into the much more stable air. Models have been consistent in showing a more concentrated area moving into the Charlotte metro area and southwestern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into the evening. The coverage of showers should then spread north and east through the overnight period.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Extended period of unsettled weather and rain chances

Surface high pressure is located off the SE coast with mid-level ridging centered to the east of the region. Tomorrow, the wedge airmass should still be in place in the morning, dissipating throughout the day. Thus, kept temperatures on the cooler side of guidance with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds should allow highs to generally increase each afternoon, into the low-to-mid 80s on Monday to the mid-to-upper 90s by Thursday afternoon. Friday, a backdoor cold front looks to pass south through the region, bringing back a period of cooler temperatures.

In terms of precipitation, multiple waves of mid-level energy will move through the region on the edge of the ridge through the extended period. This will allow for rain chances each day Sunday through Thursday. Exact timing and location of any showers and embedded thunderstorms is still unclear at this time. However, the mean of the LREF is showing generally 0.5 inch of rain each day tomorrow through Tuesday, with closer to 0.25 inch Wednesday and Thursday, and even less through the weekend after the passage of the cold front. However, swaths of higher rainfall totals will be possible each afternoon from any stronger storms that may develop.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 135 PM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in restrictions through the next 24 hours, much lower confidence in just how low the restrictions will be. A cold air damming wedge has remained across much of central North Carolina, and with it appearing likely to stay in place longer than expected, this should prevent ceilings from rising as much as previously anticipated at RWI/FAY and also reduce the chance of thunderstorms at local terminals this afternoon. That being said, it appears that thunderstorms will split the FAY terminal around 18Z, but these storms have formed outside of the wedge and are moving into the area. While some improvement to IFR/MVFR ceilings is anticipated to happen area-wide through the afternoon, nightfall will bring a return to widespread LIFR ceilings. The highest potential of rain is still likely to move in south of INT/GSO/RDU and move northeast during the evening hours. Rain coverage has been sparse this morning, and appears that it will continue to be sparse this afternoon before rain coverage expands overnight. Ceilings should lift somewhat Sunday morning, although additional rain is likely at that time.

Outlook: While ceilings are likely to lift to MVFR/VFR Sunday afternoon, another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings should occur Sunday night. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through the period.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

May 23: KGSO: 59/1931

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000

May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006

May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

May 29: KRDU: 72/2012 KFAY: 73/2018

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.