textproduct: Raleigh
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Updated Aviation discussion
KEY MESSAGES
As of 145 PM Tuesday...
1) Another dangerous heat wave will begin to develop by Thursday, although values do not appear to be as hot as two weeks ago.
DISCUSSION
As of 145 PM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Another dangerous heat wave will begin to develop by Thursday, although values do not appear to be as hot as two weeks ago.
Today will be the last in a brief string of days with below normal temperatures, with highs rising back into the 90s on Wednesday and remaining there through the rest of the forecast. A strong upper ridge will build across the eastern third of the United States and a southerly component will return to the surface wind. Right now, it appears that Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days in the stretch, with highs primarily in the mid to upper 90s, but some isolated locations are expected to reach 100 degrees. Heat warning criteria (heat index > 110 degrees) are not currently included in the forecast, although heat advisory criteria (heat index > 105 degrees) will likely be met. While the highs will not be quite as high as a couple weeks ago, this stretch of hot weather will once again include low temperatures only dropping into the 70s, which will have a cumulative effect on people over several days and will cause issues for people who are heat-sensitive or do not have access to air conditioning. Beginning on Thursday, the experimental HeatRisk will have values of 3 out of 4 across the Triangle and Fayetteville, expanding to most locations Friday and Saturday. Expect high temperatures to drop a few degrees over the weekend into early next week as the upper ridge retrogrades to the west and a broad trough begins to bring scattered diurnal thunderstorms to much of the East Coast.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 700 PM Tuesday...
24 hour TAF period: Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. However, there could be some radiation fog near KFAY and KRWI early Wed morn. Winds will be calm to light and variable overnight, with light (mainly 5 kts or less) wly winds Wed morn becoming swly-sswly through the day. Additionally, some smoke in the mid-upper levels approaching from the nne may result in hazy conditions.
Outlook: Increasing low-level moisture/humidity levels this weekend will support a chance of both showers/storms and patchy mist/fog and/or stratus.
CLIMATE
Record temperatures within 3F of forecast ones...
Record Highs:
July 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887
July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932
Record High Mins:
July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2019
July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025
July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023
July 20: KRDU: 76/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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