textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Heat advisory has been issued for all of central NC for Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 PM Thursday...

1) Heat Advisories are in effect today and Friday. Dangerous heat will persist across central NC through at least the weekend and into Monday.

2) Mostly dry through the weekend, with better rain chances returning to start the work week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisories are in effect today and Friday. Dangerous heat will persist across central NC through at least the weekend and into Monday.

The prolonged period of dangerous heat has begun and will continue through at least early next week. A strong subtropical ridge remains centered across the Southeast will remain the dominant synoptic feature through the holiday weekend and into early next week. Afternoon highs a few deg either side of 100 are expected through at least Monday, before highs fall back to the lower to mid 90s by Tuesday. With dwpts generally in the lower 70s, afternoon heat indices will range from 103-108 also through at least Monday. By late Monday, we expect an increase in both clouds and rain chances, along with a backdoor front that may push through the area by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, which will allow temps to fall closer to climo readings by mid-week. Given the aforementioned, a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM today for areas along and west of the I-95 corridor...and a new heat advisory has recently been issued for all of central NC for Friday from Noon until 8 PM.

Other heat-related points:

- Overnight lows will generally remain in the mid to upper 70s, providing limited nocturnal recovery, allowing cumulative heat stress to increase as the event progresses.

- The greatest concern continues to be the prolonged duration of the heat rather than any single exceptionally hot day. Consecutive days of excessive heat and warm nights compound impacts.

- The experimental NWS Heat Risk product indicates Major Heat Risk across much of central North Carolina through Friday, with Extreme Heat Risk possible by Saturday and lingering into Monday. (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk)

- While isolated afternoon convection (particularly from Sunday on) may provide localized and temporary relief, coverage appears insufficient to significantly mitigate the overall heat hazard.

- Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed on multiple days, and portions of the area could approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria should temperatures trend a degree or two warmer or humidity remain higher than currently forecast.

- Finally, the highest risk will be for those without effective cooling, individuals working or recreating outdoors, and other heat- sensitive populations as the prolonged stretch of above-normal temperatures continues into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly dry through the weekend, with better rain chances returning to start the work week.

As the deep high pressure holds over the mid-Atlantic, rain chances should remain relatively low through the weekend. The best chance of a shower or storm this weekend will be in the northwest off of the Piedmont trough, however if a shower or thunderstorm is able to form this weekend, it will be very isolated and brief in nature. The upper level ridge should start to break down late weekend, allowing rain chances to increase starting on Sunday. However, Sunday's rain chances look to be decreasing, with the best chance for rain near the NC/VA border due to the best shortwave forcing being located in Virginia. As the high weakens further at the beginning of the work week, a backdoor cold front will approach the region Tuesday into Wednesday and may stall over central NC. This will allow for increased rain chances Monday through Wednesday, mainly in the afternoons with diurnal heating. However, ensemble data is still suggesting generally less than 0.25 inch of rain each day.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 300 PM Thursday...

TAF period: High pressure should keep VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Light wind should have a southerly component throughout.

Outlook: The forecast calls for dry VFR conditions to continue through at least Saturday with surface high pressure dominating the southeastern United States. By Saturday night, the surface high will begin to break down, and this could allow for isolated thunderstorms on Sunday and greater coverage on Monday. Anywhere that precipitation does occur, there will be higher chances for fog/stratus restrictions the following morning.

CLIMATE

All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence:

KGSO: 104/1914-07-27 KRDU: 106/2024-07-05 KFAY: 110/1983-08-21

Record High Temperatures:

July 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/twice KFAY: 98/2019 July 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/twice July 6: KGSO: 100/1977 KRDU: 102/1999 KFAY: 100/2024

All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of Occurrence:

KGSO: 80/2007-08-09 KRDU: 80/2025-07-18 KFAY: 84/1928-06-22

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005 July 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011- 021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.