textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

Seasonably chilly high pressure will settle across the Southeast US through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 203 PM Sunday...

We'll continue to see area-wide nwly gustiness of up to 35 to 40 mph through sunset. Scattered virga continues to propagate across the northern portions of our CWA. While not expecting more than perhaps a rogue trace from these radar echoes, some additional locally enhanced gustiness may result via evaporative cooling. Otherwise, expect gusts to wane post-sunset with occasional gusts of up to 20 mph through the early overnight period. Any linger clouds should clear overnight with lows dipping into the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 123 PM Sunday...

* Dry with Moderating Temperatures

* Minimum RH Values 25-30% Monday and Tuesday

The period begins will quasi-zonal flow aloft as a long wave trough remains established across the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will begin to amplify late Tuesday as a potent shortwave trough dives south from central Canada. In response heights will begin to fall, and the upper flow will back to SWLY toward the end of the period.

At the surface, a strong +1030mb high pressure over the SE US will gradually weaken and shift south of the area. Meanwhile, persistent lee-side troughing will develop over western NC.

Expect a dry an quiet start to the week. Monday will feature seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies, save for some fleeting jet cirrus. As the surface shifts south, southerly return flow will yield a warming trend with afternoon highs rising to several degrees above seasonable normals.

Skies will remain generally mostly clear/sunny through Tuesday afternoon before thickening cloud cover Tuesday night.

Additionally, while winds are expected to remain light, minimum RH values are expected to bottom out in the 25-30% Monday and again on Tuesday. Dead fuel moisture levels will continue to decrease.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 110 PM Sunday...

* Above normal temperatures on Wed, transitioning to below normal through Fri and much of the weekend.

* Highest precipitation chances Thu, mainly liquid with a slight chance for a brief mix/transition to snow as it moves out.

Wednesday through Thursday night: Aloft, a pair of nrn stream shortwaves dropping ssewd out of Canada will amplify the longwave trough on Wed as they swing across the nrn Plains and upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the srn stream s/w will get picked up by the amplifying longwave trough. As the longwave trough shifts slowly ewd, the two nrn stream waves will merge forming a closed low over the OH Valley, while the srn stream wave tracks ewd across the nrn Gulf Wed night. The srn wave will continue ewd across FL and out over the Atlantic, while the nrn stream low moves ewd across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Thu/Thu night. At the surface, a wave will lift nnewd along the frontal zone offshore Wed/Wed night. Meanwhile, a low will develop over central VA, along the approaching cold front as it moves into the mid-Atlantic, meeting up with the pre-frontal trough. The low will deepen as it slowly shifts ewd across the region Wed night/Thu, shifting offshore Thu night. Cold high pressure will build ewd into the area in the wake of the low.

Temperatures: Above normal temperatures Wed/Wed night ahead of the front, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s. In the wake of the front, temperatures will drop 10-15 degrees to below normal, with highs ranging from low 40s NW to low 50s SE and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs Thu in the NW will likely occur at midnight.

Weather: There is a slight chance to chance for precipitation (highest across the north) Thu with the passage of a potent s/w aloft, which will trail the surface low. Overall QPF may be relatively light, highest along the VA border. The majority of the precipitation will fall in the wake of the surface low/front, starting as rain but possibly changing to snow briefly as it departs, with strong CAA and lift in the lower levels (-8 to-10 deg cold nose) despite drying in the dendritic growth zone aloft. Little if any accumulation is expected if/where snow does occur.

Friday through Sunday: Model agreement decreases over the weekend, but generally expect the longwave trough axis to amplify over the Plains/MS Valley as a nrn stream s/w drops south out of Canada Fri/Sat then swings ewd Sat night and across the area Sun. This will be the next best chance for precipitation, although there is model variability wrt when, where, and how much. At the surface, cold high pressure should build in behind the front, moving ewd across the region Fri night/Sat and exiting ahead of the next approaching system. However, the forecast remains uncertain give the increasing model spread and low predictability. Generally expect below normal temperatures to prevail, perhaps increasing to near normal Sat/Sat night.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 730 PM Sunday...

Wnwly winds may gust for a few more hours this evening, though not nearly as strong as the 35-40 kt gusts of Sunday afternoon, before diminishing by Mon morning. High pressure and associated light winds, and VFR conditions, are otherwise expected.

Outlook: A strong low pressure system will develop and deepen across and offshore the middle Atlantic region on Thursday, when a chance of precipitation and flight restrictions will be possible over cntl NC.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.