textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 100 AM Friday...

1) As the remnants of Isaias track through the Tennessee Valley and push tropical moisture northeastward, Central NC will experience unsettling weather with showers and storms from Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 100 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... As the remnants of Isaias track through the Tennessee Valley and push tropical moisture northeastward, Central NC will experience unsettling weather with showers and storms from Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night.

Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon, with widespread rainfall driven by strong isentropic lift peaking between Saturday evening and Sunday. Models show a brief lull midday Sunday before a final broken band of showers and storms passes through Sunday afternoon and evening. Conditions will clear rapidly from west to east overnight into Monday morning.

Storm totals across Central NC will average 1 to 2 inches, though localized urban or poor-drainage flooding is possible. Cold Air Damming set up will keep totals lower across the NW Piedmont (~0.5 to 1 inch), while a secondary low development along the coast will result in localized higher amounts across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.

The severe threat remains low overall due to limited instability in a high-shear, Low-CAPE environment. However, a few isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon/evening, primarily across the far eastern and southeastern areas.

The CAD wedge will keep conditions cool and damp over the weekend, with highs in the mid/upper 60s NW to low 70s in the SE and breezy easterly flow before sunshine returns Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 120 AM Friday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Overall high clouds will dominate the forecast in the near- term. A few gusts will be possible Friday afternoon, primarily across FAY in the 15-18 kt range out of the northeast.

Outlook: Stratiform rain will overspread cntl NC late Saturday afternoon, continuing into Sunday. Cold air damming and flight restrictions will result and be slow to erode, if at all over the Piedmont, through Sunday. The cold air damming regime and flight restrictions will probably be eradicated at FAY and RWI, and more broadly across ern and e-cntl NC, by the nwwd retreat/passage of a warm/wedge front Sunday afternoon. A band of heavier, convective precipitation may form along or near that front Sunday afternoon, amid otherwise lifting/scattering of low ceilings with its passage and eradication of the cold air damming airmass. VFR conditions should return Monday and continue into Tuesday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.