textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

Cool high pressure will build into the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/

As of 200 AM Wednesday...

* Sunny and breezy today, with a continued increased fire danger.

The generally dry surface cold front currently making its way through central NC will shift E off the coast this morning, leaving us within a deeply dry cyclonic flow through the low and mid levels from the WSW-W. A few mid clouds are expected mainly across the N and E through the morning, but these should give way to sunny skies in the afternoon with dry air advection and deep subsidence. Low level thicknesses with CAA are expected to be 10-20 m below normal today, which when balanced with plentiful insolation will equate to temps near to just a bit below normal, with highs in the mid 60s NW to mid 70s SE. A fairly tight height gradient will persist through the low and mid levels, esp in our N sections, and as we mix into some of the stronger winds aloft, frequent gusts up to 20-25 mph are expected from mid morning through much of the afternoon. These winds plus low RH today will lead to an increased fire danger. (See fire weather discussion below.) Clear skies and decoupling in the low levels near and after sunset will yield decreasing surface winds and good radiational cooling, supporting lows tonight from 37-45, coolest in the rural Piedmont. -GIH

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 215 AM Wednesday...

The large mid level gyre centered over Quebec and covering the NE quarter of NOAM combined with a cool and dry narrow surface ridge building into NC from the Upper Midwest will lead to a continued dry and stable column Thu/Thu night. Skies will again be generally sunny, with another day of breezy conditions, although gusts should be just a couple of kts lower. A few mid level clouds will pass swiftly over the area late in the day as a shearing mid level perturbation and accompanying dry reinforcing surface front sweep through, but otherwise fair skies will dominate through Thu night, with winds again abating near sunset as the low levels decouple. Low level thicknesses are expected to be slightly lower than today, favoring highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. With another clear and cool night, lows should once again be 37-45. -GIH

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 205 AM Wednesday...

The extended with feature a lingering trough along the east coast Friday into Saturday promoting wnwly flow over central NC. The trough will shift offshore Sunday while a short-wave moves across the central US. The short-wave will move east and dissipate out through Tuesday, ahead of a potentially stronger/deeper trough approach middle of next week.

At the sfc, chilly high pressure will extend down into central NC Friday, with the center of the high moving over our area Friday night. Low-level thicknesses will drop to ~1330m Saturday morning. Winds should largely decouple Friday night with good radiational cooling potential. As such, we could see some sites along the NC/VA border reach near Frost Advisory criteria in the mid to upper 30s early Saturday morning. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s Friday, and a bit cooler on Saturday in the lower to mid 60s.

Models are in a bit of disagreement wrt to the evolution of the aforementioned short-wave through early next week. The GFS pulls deepest moisture and upper forcing northward from the TN valley up into the Ohio Valley leaving our area largely dry through early next week. Conversely, the Euro keeps the wave further south, accumulating moisture and lift over the southeast which would potentially allow a bit higher chances for rain for us. Ensembles show generally 20-30% chances along our western and southern areas Monday. We'll have to see how the upper wave evolves, but there's at least a slight chance for some light rain during this period for portions of our area. Beyond Tuesday, the next shot for measurable rain appears to be sometime in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe from a potentially strong upper trough developing across the central to eastern US.

With generally nnely flow expected Sunday through Wednesday, expect chilly daytime highs in the lower to mid 60s. Overnight lows in the 40s are generally expected over this time period.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 635 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will hold across central NC terminals today through tonight, with no vsby restrictions and few to no clouds. It will again be blustery from mid morning to late afternoon, with sustained speeds of 10-14 kts and frequent gusts as high as 20-24 kts.

Looking beyond 12z Thu, VFR conditions are likely to hold through Sun as high pressure stays in control. -GIH

FIRE WEATHER

Surface winds generally from the WSW or W today will gust up to 20- 25 mph. These winds combined with relative humidity values expected to bottom out at 22%-30% this afternoon will lead to an increased risk of fire danger today. This risk will be enhanced by the ongoing dry and drought conditions over central NC, as well as by the increasing amounts of tree litter. A fire danger statement has been issued by NWS offices serving NC, valid from mid morning through the afternoon. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.