textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 258 AM Wednesday...

* Rain chances late Sat night into Sun have sped up by several hours, which could impact prefrontal instability potential Sun.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 258 AM Wednesday...

1) Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

2) An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible over the far NW Piedmont late today into the evening.

3) After mainly dry conditions Thu, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are possible mainly in the western Piedmont on Fri/Sat. More widespread showers and storms are expected from early Sun through Sun night with a cold frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

As of 258 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

NC forestry officials remain concerned about the very dry fuel moistures, breezy winds, and relative humidities in the 35-45 percent range.

Anomalous ridging will continue across the SE US and western Atlantic effectively blocking any rainy systems from reaching our region for the foreseeable future. In addition, the antecedent dryness and continued breezy and unseasonably warm weather will keep forestry officials much busier than usual. The statewide burning band remains in place. SW winds 10-20 mph today will occasionally gust to 25 mph. Highs will reach in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points do show promise, forecast to creep upward into the mid 50s to lower 60s with minimum relative humidities only dropping into the 40s for the most part.

Looking ahead to Thursday, increased fire danger may persist, although to a lesser degree, given that winds will be a bit lower, relative humidities a bit higher and green up continues.

Another increased fire danger statement for Thursday will be discussed later today.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated PM showers/thunder are possible across the far NW Piedmont late day with origins over the mountains.

Continued southwesterly moisture/thermal advection will support unseasonably warm temperatures (lower to mid 80s) and limited diurnal mixing/lowering of afternoon dew points (upper 50s to low 60s). This will likely result in seasonably high instability (500- 1500 MLCAPE) over a majority of the Piedmont to the NC Foothills by Wed afternoon. Although convective temperatures may be met anywhere in this area and result in a few towering cumulus and an isolated shower chance, most hi-res guidance suggests the bulk of the convective chances/coverage will initially develop over the high terrain to our W and NW and move NE into the far NW Piedmont and SW VA late afternoon and early evening hours before dissipating. Otherwise, the chance of showers is less than 10 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 3... After mainly dry conditions Thu, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are possible mainly in the western Piedmont on Fri/Sat. More widespread showers and storms are expected from early Sun through Sun night with a cold frontal passage.

On Thursday, the anomalous mid-level ridge will re-amplify over the northeast US as the center retrogrades closer to the Carolina coast. This setup will yield increasing subsidence and lower rain chances.

The center of the ridge will then migrate further east on Friday and Saturday, but convection will largely again be focused along the mountains, possibly spilling east into our western areas each afternoon and evening. Additional convection may be possible in our southern areas along the inland penetrating sea breeze.

Guidance is in good agreement pushing a cold front into our area Sunday, with widespread rain and isolated storms convection likely ahead of it. The timing of the front differs, however, and thus not sure how much of a severe threat we may have especially if the passage is earlier in the day. However, bulk-layer shear is expected to increase significantly and as such isolated strong to severe storms may be possible (especially if the frontal passage lags into the afternoon/evening).

Conditions behind the front on Monday and Tuesday will turn much cooler with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower-to-mid-40s. The region should also be largely free of precipitation early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to dominate much of the 12z TAF period across central NC. Surface winds have remained up at 10 to 15 kt and this has kept the threat of LLWS down. The period around sunrise may present some LLWS as surface winds will likely be at the lowest at that time. Also, there is a slight chance of a late day shower at KINT and possibly KGSO, but the chance is only about 15 percent.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the week given the large and powerful ridge aloft off the SE coast.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 1: KGSO: 90/1910 KRDU: 89/1974 KFAY: 87/2010

April 2: KGSO: 87/2010 KFAY: 90/1974

April 3: KFAY: 90/1934

April 4: KGSO: 87/2025 KRDU: 90/2025

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1: KGSO: 63/2016 KRDU: 67/2016

April 2: KGSO: 61/1979 KRDU: 66/2024 KFAY: 66/2024

April 5: KFAY: 67/2025

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.