textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will sweep across the area this morning, followed by high pressure that will settle off the Southeast coast through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 220 AM Friday...

* Wind gusts of 30-40mph are expected this morning. A line of showers moving across the northern Piedmont this morning may result in some wind gusts as high as 45mph.

A strong, negatively tiled trough will lift across the central Appalachians today, with an associated cold front and robust line of low-topped showers currently moving through western NC. Ahead of the front, warm advection and an upper disturbance are forcing light to moderate rain moving northeast across central NC this morning. Wind gusts are increasing beneath a 50-60kt LLJ as a wedge front has mixed north of the area.

The area ongoing rain will depart the northern coastal plain by around 5am, with a brief lull before the cold front and showers sweep across s the area between 7-10am. With limited instability, guidance suggests a downward trend in the frontal showers, but increased mixing and post frontal cold-advection should still support wind gusts to 40mph or perhaps greater in spots through mid- morning, especially across the northwest and northern Piedmont areas. Confidence is not currently high enough for a Wind Advisory. Highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, but temps will likely hold steady or begin to fall by midday as cold advection sets in. Winds will diminish this evening and temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s overnight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 100 AM Friday...

Quiet weather expected Saturday with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Light variable winds in the morning will become more southerly by the afternoon as high pressure shifts offshore through the day. Skies mostly clear with temperatures in the low to mid 50s across the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s, all above freezing which is a few degrees above average.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1045 PM Thursday...

* Seasonably mild conditions, to unseasonably so by the end of the period, will be briefly interrupted by cooler than average ones on Mon. * Just a small chance of light rain Tue-Tue night

An amplified but moisture-starved shortwave trough will progress from srn QC and the lwr Great Lakes Sun to Atlantic Canada Sun night. A prolonged period of wnwly to nwly flow aloft will follow and prevail over cntl NC, around a sub-tropical high and ridge that will progress from Baja CA to the nrn Gulf and Gulf Coast states through next week. Within that wnwly flow regime, a mid-level frontal zone and band of WAA and lift, with associated saturation centered around 700 mb, will progress across the Appalachians and Middle Atlantic Tue-Tue night.

At the surface, cntl NC on Sun will likely be between a couple of moisture-starved frontal zones that will progress across the OH Valley/Middle Atlantic and Southeast, respectively, with the former likely to move south and across cntl NC Late Sun into early Sun night. Following, continental Polar high pressure, strong and near 1040 mb over OH/WV at the start of the period, will weaken while building across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic Mon-Mon night. In return flow around the high, a warm front will develop and retreat briefly nwd and across the Carolinas NC Tue-Tue night, then become strengthened across the Savannah Basin on Wed, as another weaker high builds briefly across the Middle Atlantic and directs equally briefly nly low-level flow across cntl NC. Mild-warm swly flow will then envelop much of the srn and ern US through the end of the week.

The exception to dry conditions will be just a small chance of light rain accompanying the aforementioned mid-level WAA regime, possibly augmented by lower-level isentropic lift over the Piedmont, Tue-Tue night. Temperatures will be mostly above average, probably trending well above by Christmas, with briefly below average and colder ones while under the influence of the cP high Sun night-Mon night.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 645 AM Friday...

A line of showers with very strong winds is moving through the Piedmont, nearing RDU as of 645am. Wind gusts of 40-50mph are still possible at RDU/RWI/FAY through 14Z. There should then be brief a lull in the winds as the cold front moves east of the area. Current IFR and MVFR conditions will improve to VFR, but strong westerly winds will redevelop with gusts to 30-40kt possible late morning into the afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure and associated VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the extended period.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.