textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 800 PM Sunday...

* Increased fire danger statement again for Monday from 1100 AM until 800 PM.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 800 PM Sunday...

1) Increased Fire Danger statement wanted by the NCFS again for Monday. A state-wide fire ban remains in place and prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

2) Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures expected, with mainly dry conditions expected through late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 800 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger again Monday.

A state-wide fire ban remains in place and prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

NC forestry officials are worried about relative humidity values under 40 percent instead of the typical 25 percent given the very dry fuels as we are just before spring green up. The SW return flow around the departing high pressure will become 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph by late morning through Monday afternoon, as well. With much warmer temperatures in the 70s, conditions will continue to be favorable for adverse fire behavior and spread.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures expected, with mainly dry conditions expected through late week.

As surface high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast, southerly surface winds should return by Monday and continue through mid-week. This will allow temperatures to return to above normal on Monday and rise to about 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Wednesday. In terms of high temperatures, this is seen by a return to the 70s on Monday, increasing to the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Low to mid 80s are then generally expected through the weekend. Lows during this timeframe will return to the mid 50s to low 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers may be possible each day Wednesday through Saturday as a few shortwaves look to pass north of the region and moisture increases. Highest chances generally look to be in the western and northern portions of the CWA. Rainfall totals during this time should be light, with the 50th percentiles of the GEFS and European ensemble showing generally less than 0.5 inch of rain total through Sunday morning. Better rain chances will come Sunday night into Monday as a cold front looks to approach and move through the region sometime in this timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 800 PM Sunday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through 00z/Tuesday. A VFR cig around 3-4k feet with stratocumulus is possible in the Triad on Monday, otherwise expect mostly high cloudiness.

Outlook: Continued moisture return around what will be a persistent, Bermuda high regime through the upcoming week, will favor a chance of sub-VFR ceilings especially over the wrn Piedmont by Tuesday morning and likely again on Wednesday morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.