textproduct: Raleigh

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM Friday...

1) The early season heat wave continues into the weekend. Lighter winds today preclude another fire danger statement. Yet, there are still concerning low humidities, high temperatures, and dry fuels.

2) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of light rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures then turning cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The early season heat wave continues into the weekend. Lighter winds today preclude another fire danger statement.

Coordination with the NCFS revealed that the lighter winds today around 10 mph should reduce the fire danger threat. However, the weak front will pass by dry. It will will become mostly sunny and remain hot today. Highs will reach around 90 for most areas. Winds will become WNW around 10 mph. The relative humidities should settle down into the 25 to 30 percent range. So, there is still a concern and I would not be surprised if the NCFS requests a statement again after mid-morning when the data is analyzed further.

Surface winds will increase on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens, especially east of the Blue Ridge lee trough over central and eastern NC. Temperatures will also peak for this heat wave into the lower to mid 90s. So, it seems fire concerns will be there again Saturday as winds reach 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of light rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures then turning cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning through early afternoon. Models are still showing generally light anafrontal rain behind the frontal passage Sunday morning through early afternoon. A few models are still showing the rain later in the afternoon. If this does occur, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially in the east. Overall, mostly light stratiform rain is expected, with less than 0.25 inch of rain being shown in all of central NC by both ensemble and deterministic models. Thus, little relief from drought conditions are expected. Also with the frontal passage, gusty winds are expected Sunday morning through afternoon, with model soundings suggesting wind gusts around 20-30 mph being possible.

The front will drop temperatures back near normal, even reaching below normal at times. As the front passes through on Sunday, highs should remain cooler, potentially only reaching the 70s in the southeastern half of the CWA where the front will take longer to move through. Sunday night, lows look to drop into the low to mid 40s, dropping into the upper 30s in the coolest spots. Lows will drop further Monday night as high pressure builds into or just north of the region. Temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s look likely, as good radiational cooling conditions should be met. This may lead to areas of patchy frost being possible Tuesday morning, especially north. Highs on Monday look to drop into generally the mid 60s to around 70s, with temperatures then increasing each day Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 620 AM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. SW surface winds will shift to the WNW at 10 knots after the fropa with little to no rainfall or restrictions this morning. Otherwise, VFR.

Outlook: Another cold front Sunday will bring a low end chance of showers and MVFR to IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected Sunday night through Tuesday.

CLIMATE

All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915 KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896 KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930

Record High Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941 April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921 April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.