textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Temperatures trending cooler for Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning.

* Precipitation chances late week into the weekend continue to trend down with the return of convective chances being pushed later into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 AM Monday...

1) Seasonable and drier conditions Tues through Wed night with unseasonably warm weather returning late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable and drier conditions Tues through Wed night with unseasonably warm weather returning late week into the weekend.

A surface cold front is still slowly working its way through the lower Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic based on the 06z observations. Ahead of this front however, a pre-frontal trough, roughly around the I-95 corridor, is slowly ushering in slightly drier air across the Piedmont and slowly advancing eastward. Model guidance continues to push the cold front into and through our region from the north-northeast as a backdoor cold front through peak heating into this evening. Thankfully, drier air mixing down to the surface behind the pre-frontal trough (mean mixing-ratio at 00z GSO RAOB 13.4 compared to 17.7 at MHX) will greatly limit instability along and ahead of the front this afternoon. Isolated sprinkles or a shower or two can't be ruled out, especially across the Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain where favorable diurnal timing, 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and glancing influence from trough axis pivoting across and offshore of the northern Mid-Atlantic may overcome marginal instability and drier mid/upper-lvl air.

A prolonged period of minimal convective chances is expected behind the frontal passage as a seasonably significant mid/upper lvl subtropical ridge (+2.5 to 3 standardized height anomalies from 850 to 200mb Tues through Thurs night) builds over the TN Valley and southern Appalachians; perhaps even reaching 600 dam at H5 by Wed. A brief dip down to seasonable temperatures is expected post cold-frontal passage Tues and perhaps lingering into Wed before moderating back to 10-15 degrees above normal as the ridge flattens and anomalous H85 temps sag south into the Carolinas into the weekend. Forecast uncertainty remains on when convective chances return to the region as how/when the anomalous ridge loosens its grip over the Carolinas remains highly inconsistent among NWP models; below normal PoPs may linger until late this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 130 AM Monday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Lingering moist low-lvl moisture, with dew points and afternoon crossover temperatures in the low 70s, may result in patchy wisps of surface mist (1-5 SM) in the typical cool spots. RWI may experience temporary restrictions from mist/fog in the 7-11z window due to local effects before relatively drier air over the Piedmont advects eastward this morning. Periodic light stirring the fleeting cigs in the 6-9 kft layer prevents greater confidence in mist/fog to occur. Prevailing northwest winds after sunrise will veer out of the north-northeast post backdoor cold front with frequent gusts of around 15 kts, especially at RWI and FAY through the afternoon into the evening.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions expected as deep high pressure persists over the region through at least Friday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.