textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No major changes

KEY MESSAGES

As of 210 PM Sunday...

1) Cloudy and cool conditions and patches of drizzle/mist continue through the day today.

2) Temperatures will moderate through the week, with rain likely returning by the end of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 210 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloudy and cool conditions and patches of drizzle/mist continue through the day today.

Yesterday's cold front looks to have stalled along the coast and into South Carolina, allowing the CAD wedge airmass to set up over central NC. That has led to the cool, cloudy, and drizzly/misty conditions that have been ongoing. This should continue through the day today, with highs looking to only reach the mid 60s to potentially around 70 in the south. Much of the light rain should be done for the afternoon, with some light drizzle/mist continuing in the northeastern portions of the CWA. Late tonight, another round of light rain may be possible in the far southeast as another wave moves along the stalled front.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will moderate through the week, with rain likely returning by the end of next weekend.

As the cold front along the Atlantic shoreline slides offshore Monday with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley, cloud cover will be slow to depart central North Carolina. Considering there will be more sun in the west Monday afternoon than the east, this will likely be a rare case where the Triad has the warmest temperatures, although all locations are likely to reach the mid 70s. Northeasterly flow will bring slightly cooler highs on Tuesday, but all locations are expected to warm into the 80s by Thursday.

Thursday should be the warmest day out of the next seven, with cloud cover beginning to increase by Friday in advance of a storm that will move north from the Gulf into the Mississippi River Valley. The current forecast introduces a chance of rain beginning Saturday night and continues to increase into Sunday. There are still many days for the specifics to change with this part of the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 716 PM Sunday...

Satellite imagery and observations continue to reveal widespread stratus. The back edge of the MVFR stratus is presently approaching the Triad terminals, but upstream observations in western NC continue to indicate areas of MVFR ceilings. With continued low- level drying expected, a gradual trend to VFR should prevail at GSO/INT, though the latest forecast may be a tad too early. Most guidance has MVFR lifting to VFR between 00z and 03z at GSO/INT.

Further east, IFR-MVFR stratus is expected to prevail through the night. The lowest ceilings are expected at RWI and secondly at RDU, where the low-level moisture is favored to linger in place under weak convergence.

As the low-level moisture dries out across the north, there is the potential of fog early Mon. The HRRR/REFS/HREF indicate a potential for LIFR fog across the northern Piedmont between 09z and 14z, roughly between the Triad and RDU terminals. Confidence is not high given widespread high cloudiness. However, given enough of a signal in the guidance, introduced a period of LIFR at GSO/RDU. Areas of LIFR ceilings are expected at RWI early Mon in the low-level saturated airmass.

A gradual rise in ceilings is expected Mon, lifting from IFR/MVFR to VFR around 17-20z, slowest to erode at RWI. Thereafter, VFR should prevail into Monday evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions return late Monday afternoon and prevail through much of the upcoming work week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.