textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 200 PM Wednesday...

1) A more typical summertime pattern returns to central North Carolina over the next week, with diurnally-driven scattered thunderstorms and highs in the 90s.

DISCUSSION

As of 200 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A more typical summertime pattern returns to central North Carolina over the next week, with diurnally-driven scattered thunderstorms and highs in the 90s.

As opposed to the last several days, where showers and thunderstorm coverage has been more widespread and highs have been in the 80s, the coverage of precipitation should be less over the next week. Precipitable water values have been well over 2 inches, and will drop closer to 2 inches, which is at or slightly above normal for this time of year. In addition, there will be fewer synoptic features serving to force any precipitation. Any frontal boundaries should remain closer to the US/Canadian border, and after a broad upper trough moves over the East Coast this weekend, the mid level flow becomes more zonal. Each day there will likely be isolated to scattered thunderstorms, but overall, less people will be receiving rain each day. The surface wind will generally be light and out of the southwest, which should allow some warmer air to eventually filter into the region. Friday is the first day in the forecast where most locations will reach the lower 90s, and mid 90s don't appear likely to return to the majority of the region until at least Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 230 PM Wednesday...

24-hour TAF period: Widespread broken stratocumulus continues across central NC. While most sites have scattered and lifted to low VFR early this afternoon, several sites including GSO and RWI are still observing MVFR. VFR should mostly prevail through the rest of this afternoon and evening, but can't rule out a brief sub-VFR ceiling and visibility with any shower or storm that develops. Overall coverage of convection should be less than previous days, more isolated to scattered in nature with the greatest chance in the western Piedmont (including INT and GSO).

As shower and storm chances end overnight, more IFR/LIFR ceilings will again be possible after 06z, particularly where any rain fell today. Models differ on the likelihood and placement of the low stratus, but leaned toward the more moist guidance given what occurred this morning and little change in the overall pattern, favoring a persistence forecast. Patchy fog/mist can't be ruled out either, but similar to this morning think it will mostly be low ceilings that determine the flight category and not the visibilities.

Ceilings should mostly lift and scatter out to VFR by late morning on Thursday. Winds will be mostly from the SSW through the period, around 5-8 kts during the day and 5 kts or less tonight.

Outlook: Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible through late week, with reduced coverage by the weekend into early next week. Early morning stratus and fog restrictions will be possible each night.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.