textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 140 PM Monday...

* The forecast continues to trend toward a typical early summertime pattern with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and isolated storms, initially focused over the NC Foothills but gradually spreading into the Piedmont.

* Precipitation chances remain extremely limited for the Sandhills and Coastal Plain until a cold frontal passage late this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 140 PM Monday...

1) An increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

2) Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures expected.

3) Mainly dry conditions expected, with daily isolated to scattered shower chances returning on Wednesday, and especially Friday until a frontal passage Sunday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 140 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until further notice.

NC forestry officials remain very concerned about the high risk for dangerous fire weather conditions today. The ongoing drought and paucity of rainfall in the last 90 days is contributing to very dry fuels and tree litter, and minimum RH is expected to be around 35- 40% across all of central NC today, with frequent gusts in the 15-25 mph range. These factors all suggest the potential for explosive fire growth and spread today, and a burn ban remains in effect until further notice.

Looking ahead to Tue, the increased fire danger may persist given that frequent gusts to 15-25 mph will occur again tomorrow. Although RH values will likely be about 5% higher compared to this afternoon, this will have negligible impact on risk for rapid fire growth. Another increase fire danger statement will be needed for Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Extended period of above to much above normal temperatures expected.

Surface high pressure has moved off the coast, and is currently centered to the east of NC. This has allowed for winds to shift to southerly and allow temperatures to return to above normal for this time of year. Temperatures are expected to rise to about 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Wednesday. In terms of high temperatures, this is seen by a return to the low to mid 70s this afternoon, increasing to the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Low to mid 80s are then generally expected through the weekend. Lows during this timeframe will return to the mid 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Mainly dry conditions expected, with daily isolated to scattered shower chances returning on Wednesday until a frontal passage Sunday night into Monday.

Although better forcing from a frontal system is expected to stay well to our north, isolated to scattered showers may be possible each afternoon Wednesday through Saturday as there should be plenty of moisture over the region and high temperatures will promote instability. Thursday looks to have the lowest chance of any showers forming during this timeframe as an area of drier air looks to pass over the region. The highest probabilities of rain each afternoon will be in the west due to orographic enhancement from the mountains. Within any showers that form each afternoon, embedded thunderstorms will be possible and an isolated stronger wind gust cannot be ruled out. However, widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Better and more widespread rain chances will come Sunday night into Monday as a potentially strong cold front looks to approach and move through the region. Differences in timing and location of the system in deterministic models and ensemble data is making any details unclear at this time.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 720 PM Monday...

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the 00z TAF period. The gusty southwesterly surface winds observed this afternoon today will decouple over the next hour or so after sunset. Expect light southerly to southwesterly winds (310 kts) to prevail overnight under a mix of high-level cirrus and thin mid-level decks. While a 3540 kt low-level jet (LLJ) is expected to develop over the region tonight, the lack of significant directional veering and the presence of 10 kt surface winds at the terminals should keep LLWS magnitudes just below the 30-kt threshold to include in tonight's TAF.

Conditions remain dry through tomorrow morning. By mid morning Tuesday, vertical mixing will re-establish, leading to a return of gusty southwesterly winds. Expect winds of around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts through the afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually thicken and lower (staying VFR) into a BKN/OVC mid-level deck (10,00015,000 ft) as moisture advection increases ahead of the next system.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered convection developing over the high terrain over western NC and drifting eastward into the Piedmont will be possible Tues (5-15% chance), but becoming increasingly possible Wed and Fri (20-45%), with minimal coverage on Thurs. Patchy early- morning fog and/or low stratus can't be ruled out Wed-Fri.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 1: KGSO: 90/1910 KRDU: 89/1974 KFAY: 87/2010

April 2: KGSO: 87/2010 KRDU: 90/1967 KFAY: 90/1974

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1: KGSO: 63/2016 KRDU: 67/2016 KFAY: 67/2016

April 2: KGSO: 61/1979 KRDU: 66/2024 KFAY: 66/2024

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.