textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No appreciable changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 108 AM Saturday...

1) Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually trend above normal by the middle of next week.

2) Dry weather overall, with a signal for increased rain chances very late late next week or weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 108 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonal temperatures and pleasant conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually trend above normal towards the middle to latter part of next week.

An early season Nor'easter will affect portions of the northern Mid- Atlantic and southeastern New England this weekend will linger over that region into early next week. The system will eventually weaken and get kicked eastward as mid/upper level ridging develops over the central and southern US and tracks eastward into the Carolinas during the middle to latter part of next week.

Expect a very pleasant and mainly clear/sunny weekend with highs today in the mid 70s to around 80. Highs will slowly moderate into the lower 80s Sunday and Monday. Lows will continue very cool, with 40s over the Piedmont again tonight and lower to mid 50s elsewhere, moderating into the 50s early in the week.

We can expect a warming trend toward the middle to latter part of next week as ridging builds in from the west. Rising thicknesses and heights will favor a trend to above normal highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday through Friday. Lows will return to the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather overall, with a signal for increased rain chances very late next week or weekend.

It looks dry most, if not all this week. A mid/upper level high pressure will build east from the Plains to over our region late this week. This will keep it dry and warm this week.

Our best chance of a return to unsettled weather may not come until Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore and a progressive trough moves into the central U.S. by Fri-Sat. This should signal a pattern change with the trough to our west by next weekend and a return SW flow with increasing moisture from the Gulf.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 640 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Marginal LLWS conditions will be possible for the next few hours at RDU and RWI until surface winds start to pick up. In the next few hours, wind gusts are expected to start in the east. Expect northerly winds to gust up to about 20-22 kts, with the strongest gusts expected further east. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected for much of the day.

Outlook: A dry/continental airmass will remain over cntl NC and favor VFR conditions for at least the next several days.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.