textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 220 PM Friday...

* While pre-frontal convection/precipitation and clouds will probably affect the warm/moist sector over cntl NC early in the day Sunday, adequate instability will likely support the development of scattered storms (isolated severe) along/ahead of the synoptic cold front during the afternoon and evening

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 PM Friday...

1) Showers and possible storms still expected Sunday ahead of a cold front. The Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe, introduced for the Coastal Plain earlier this morning, may be expanded wwd across a larger portion of cntl NC in subsequent outlooks.

2) Turning cooler with below normal temperatures expected early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions possible midweek.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and possible storms still expected Sunday ahead of a cold front. The Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe, introduced for the Coastal Plain earlier this morning, may be expanded wwd across a larger portion of cntl NC in subsequent outlooks.

A mid/upr trough and embedded s/w will track ewd from the MS Valley and across the region Sun/Sun night, while the parent low lifts enewd across the Great Lakes and Quebec, Canada. At the surface, with Bermuda high pressure in place to the east, a strong cold front will approach from the west Sat night. As the parent low occludes over Canada, the ewd progression of the front may slow some, with the front moving across the region late Sun aft into early Sun night, progressing offshore by Mon morn. Ahead of the front, a 30-40 kt LLJ over the area Sat night/early Sun may weaken and shift ewd through Sun morn/aft. A pre-frontal trough may strengthen over the area, perhaps providing an early forcing mechanism for convection. Off the NAM forecast soundings, PWATs of 1.4"-1.6" are present, with 6km bulk shear maxing out between 25 and 40 kts and limited SBCAPE of roughly 200-600 J/Kg. The timing of the fropa will impact the available instability, with a continued conditional threat for a severe storm or two. The SPC does have ern NC (including the Coastal Plain) in a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning cooler with below normal temperatures expected early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions possible midweek.

In the wake of the front, a modified high will build into the region from the west Mon and Tue. A reinforcing Canadian high will slide sewd across the nrn Plains/upper MS Valley Mon night/Tue, then continue sewd across the Great Lakes and Northeast/mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed The high should shift off the mid-Atlantic coast by Wed night, continuing to ridge swwd into the region through Fri as it lifts newd over the Atlantic. Temperatures should drop to near normal (generally within 5 degrees) Mon and Tue, dropping further to below normal Tue night through Wed night before moderating back to near normal for the end of the week. The potential for frost/freeze conditions remains for mid-week. The coldest night will be Tue night when forecast lows drop into the mid/upper 30s, with the potential (via some of the cooler guidance) for some low 30s, especially in the usual cooler spots and across the north.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 200 PM Friday...

Scattered convection will result at FAY through early this evening, during which time brief flight restrictions, gusty surface winds, and thunder will be possible. VFR conditions are anticipated otherwise and elsewhere across cntl NC until Sat morning, when areas of mostly MVFR ceilings, to possibly IFR ones over the Piedmont, are again expected.

Outlook: A few showers and storms will be possible near and especially southwest of INT/GSO Sat afternoon. Despite the development of a nocturnal low-level jet in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians Sat night, a well-mixed boundary layer and an at least occasionally gusty swly surface breeze will limit the risk of low-level wind shear. A pre-frontal trough and/or synoptic cold front will focus showers and storms and flight restrictions as they move across cntl NC Sun afternoon through evening.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 4: KGSO: 87/2025 KRDU: 90/2025

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 5: KFAY: 67/2025

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.