textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 233 PM Monday...

* No significant changes from previous forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 233 PM Monday...

1) There is an increased fire danger today from 3 PM to 10 PM in areas west of I-95, due to the expected combination of very dry fuels, blustery winds, and falling humidity.

DISCUSSION

As of 233 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There is an increased fire danger today from 3 PM to 10 PM in areas west of I-95, due to the expected combination of very dry fuels, blustery winds, and falling humidity.

Sfc flow has largely turn wnwly this afternoon as the front continues to sag south through central NC. Some stronger gusts are starting to show across northern stations into the 25 to 30 mph range. Expect these stronger gusts to surge south and peak in the southern Piedmont later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings indicate continued mixing through much of the overnight period with gusts of up to 20 mph possible through sunrise.

Weak instability has formed in our Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain this afternoon. However, weak forcing has largely precluded convective initiation. Given latest trends, think the rain chances (which were already slim) are pretty low the rest of today. Best chances for an isolated shower/storm would be in the southern Coastal Plain (better chances into the Wilmington CWA).

Dew points across our area are largely still in the upper 40s to mid 50s with drier air further upstream. With time, the RH should drop into the upper 20s/lower 30s across portions of the western and southern Piedmont. There still appears to be a short window where increased fire danger conditions will result later this afternoon/early evening. Burning is discouraged today.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 744 PM Monday...

The primary aviation concern through the 24 hour TAF period will be wind, given N-NE winds overnight with gusts up to 25 kt at all central NC TAF sites. This is due to a tight pressure gradient with high pressure building in from the NW overnight behind the departing cold front. As the high settles over the Carolinas during the daytime Tuesday, winds will gradually veer to E and possibly SE by late in the day, with speeds between 6-12kt. Otherwise, clouds and cigs will be high variety, so overall, VFR flt conditions expected.

After 00Z Wednesday, VFR conditions will dominate through much of this week, although the chance for sub-VFR conditions in rain will increase late Fri as another cold front approaches from the N.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 23: KFAY: 86/1948

March 27: KGSO: 86/1921 KRDU: 87/2007 KFAY: 87/1946

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007 KFAY: 65/1949

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.