textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 1240 PM Monday...

* Friday is trending warmer and drier.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 1240 PM Monday...

1) Pockets of light rain or drizzle into tonight and early Tuesday, mainly across the northern and northwest Piedmont.

2) Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into Monday.

3) Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 1240 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Pockets of light rain or drizzle into tonight and early Tuesday, mainly across the northern and northwest Piedmont.

A 1038 mb Arctic high to our northeast will continue to nose down into the area in a mainly dry CAD scenario for the rest of today. As the high shifts offshore tonight, it will transition to a hybrid style CAD setup. Northeast flow will be prevalent today through tonight, along with areas of low stratus. A mid-level system tracking mainly north of the region this afternoon and tonight will bring some pockets of light rain and/or drizzle. Much of this rain activity will be located north of US-64 across the northern and northwest Piedmont. The 12z CAM solutions continue the northward shift in expected rainfall. A tenth of an inch or less of rain is expected over the Triad over towards Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids, with just a few hundredths of an inch of rain for other areas. A trace or less of rain is possible across the south in the Sandhills to southern Coastal Plain.

Weak upslope in the east-southeast flow at low-levels will favor some pockets of drizzle over the NW Piedmont overnight tonight as the stratus layer continues to lower by Tue morning. Lows should hover in the upper 30s N to low 40s S.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into Monday.

The next precipitation chance is expected to arrive Sunday as a frontal boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Ensemble guidance suggests a low to moderate chance of measurable precipitation across central NC, with considerable spread in timing and coverage tied to frontal passage. Most members favor isolated to scattered showers, with higher PoPs possible across the northern and western Piedmont if the boundary slows along the Appalachians. For now, the highest PoPs are focused Sunday afternoon and evening as the front attempts to move through the region. Latest model guidance shows a slightly slower arrival time of the rain for Sunday, therefore if this continues we could see a drier Sunday and wetter Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday, weak upper-level ridging will maintain warm southerly flow across the region. High temperatures Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s, with dew points generally in the 50s. On Thursday, warm southerly flow will increase and dewpoints will reach the low 60s. All of Central NC will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. By Friday, temperatures and dew points will increase ahead of a frontal boundary stretching across the Mississippi Valley. Highs are expected to run 1525 degrees above normal Friday and 1520 degrees above normal Saturday, with highs nearing record values in the low 80s (see climate section below).

As the front passes through the region early next, temperatures will trend slightly cooler but remain well above normal, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s (some areas will still be in the 80s on Monday) which will be around 1020 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 730 PM Monday...

24-hour TAF period: Mostly MVFR ceilings are currently observed across central NC, with the exception of the western Piedmont (including INT and GSO) where ceilings have largely lifted/scattered to VFR, though some MVFR ceilings still can't be ruled out there this evening. An area of light rain/drizzle continues over the northern and western Piedmont, and this will try to move east across the rest of central NC this evening, weakening as it does so. Some of the radar returns are virga, and rates are very light, so visibilities at all TAF sites should stay VFR.

Continued NE flow will favor IFR ceilings spreading into most of central NC overnight after 06z from NE to SW, including all the northern TAF sites (INT, GSO, RDU, RWI). While this looks like more of a low stratus vs fog threat, LIFR ceilings are possible early Tuesday morning, which may get close enough to the surface for some MVFR visibilities. The best chance for this is in the NE (including RWI). There is less confidence in IFR ceilings reaching FAY, so have a TEMPO group for this potential there. Ceilings will be slow to lift on Tuesday morning, with MVFR expected across the north by early afternoon, then VFR by mid to late afternoon. Winds will be light (around 7 kts or less) through the period, initially from the NE through Tuesday morning before switching to S/SW in the afternoon.

Outlook: Each morning will have the potential for low stratus and/or fog development, especially at the eastern sites (FAY/RWI). Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.