textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

A cold front extending from WV into VA will shift south across NC this afternoon and evening before settling across GA and SC on Thursday. High pressure will ridge across the region for Thursday through early Friday before the front lifts north as a warm front on Friday across the Carolinas and into VA.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

As the wavering frontal boundary finally settles south this afternoon, clouds will continue to clear from the region west to east. Temperatures will warm up into the mid upper 70s across the southwest, and upper 60s to low 70s across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Overnight as the surface high extends down from the Northeast, and the upper level ridge builds into the region, upper level moisture will bring in more cloud cover which is expected to stick around through Thursday. Depending on the TOA of clouds, temps tonight could be a tad on the cooler side and may need to be adjusted up 1-2 degrees with next forecast package. For now have lows in the low 40s north to mid/upper 40s south.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As of 1220 PM Wednesday...

Overview: Aloft, central NC will be on the nrn periphery of the sub- tropical ridge on Thu, with a s/w approaching from the west. The s/w will track across or north of the area Thu night/Fri as a more potent s/w lifts newd from the Desert Southwest to the central Plains. This second, stronger s/w will get picked up in the nrn stream flow (about a cyclone moving east across Ontario and Quebec) and track east across the mid-MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley Fri night. At the surface, high pressure will ridge swd across the area Thu, slowly shifting out of the area through Thu night as the high shifts offshore and the boundary lifts back northward across central NC. Swly flow will increase on Fri in the wake of the warm front and ahead of the next system approaching from the west. The low will generally ride/become a bit W-E elongated along the warm front as it tracks ewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic Fri night.

Precipitation: Much of the day Thu should be dry, with chances for rain, mainly across the NW and north, Thu night/Fri morning. There should be a lull in rain Fri aft/eve. Precipitation chances become a bit more uncertain late Fri/Fri night, as they appear dependent upon the track/timing of the s/w aloft. Will maintain the slight chance/chance for Fri night until there is better agreement.

Temperatures: Cloud cover Thu may keep highs a bit muted, but still within 6 degrees of normal, upper 60s SW to mid 50s NE. Lows should range from low 50s SW to mid 40s NE. Expect above to well above normal temperatures Fri/Fri night, with highs ranging from mid 70s south to mid/upper 60s NE and lows in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1252 PM Wednesday...

* Rain chances in the extended focused on Sat and late Tue/Wed

We will start mild on Sat ahead of a cold front slated to move south out of VA. Ahead of the front, highs will be some 10-15 degrees above normal in the low 70s N to mid/upper 70s S. The amount of energy at mid-levels is relatively weak, but there does appear to be enough isentropic lift and convergence along the boundary to warrant some light rain or showers in the afternoon/evening. Rainfall amounts, look to be light at a tenth of an inch or less in the ensemble data.

Temperatures lower slightly Sun and Mon behind the front and with somewhat cooler high pressure over the region. We should still manage above normal highs by some 5-10 degrees in the 60s to around 70 and lows in the 40s.

For the early to middle part of next week, ridging will take over briefly ahead of our next system. Guidance is indicating another frontal system moving east from the Central Plains and MS valley region. Currently, the models are not in excellent agreement on timing, but a consensus of the ensemble data would suggest the best chance of rain/showers sometime late Tue into Wed. Confidence on details is low at this point, depending on the actual track of the system. Highs are expected to mainly hold in the 60s through midweek.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 140 PM Wednesday...

A period of generally favorable flying conditions (VFR) is anticipated across central North Carolina through the forecast period, transitioning to localized reduced visibility and ceilings early Wednesday morning due to the return of upper level moisture and calm to light winds. All terminals are currently experiencing VFR conditions with light surface winds, predominantly from a northwesterly direction. High clouds are clearing the eastern portions of the CWA as a weak cold front is moving through the region, ushering in slightly drier air behind it. Tonight, winds will shift to a light northeast flow, bringing increased low-level moisture. Conditions remain border VFR, but by early Wednesday, low stratus potential increases significantly across a few of the northern sites with MVFR conditions possible. Brief period of 1500ft ceilings at the northern sites are possible as increased cloud coverage moves into the region. Conditions will slowly improve mid morning, with ceilings rising to at least 5000ft through the day but expect BKN skies for much of the day.

Outlook: Considerable cloudiness will lower and result in periods of MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings early Friday morning. A modest weather system may bring showers and associated flight restrictions late Friday through Saturday evening. Improving weather conditions are expected on Sunday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.