textproduct: Raleigh
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Aviation updated.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
1) Unseasonably cool and dry for early June.
2) Temperatures rising back into the 90s by Friday, with the rest of the extended period remaining mainly dry.
DISCUSSION
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonably cool and dry for early June.
The anomalous mid/upper low will rotate off the coast in the western Atlantic into mid-week. Associate surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly drift to the mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week. CAA and DAA will continue over central NC for the next several days. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s through Wednesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures rising back into the 90s by Friday, with the rest of the extended period remaining mainly dry.
Canadian high pressure will start to shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night or Friday morning as mid-level ridging will start building into the region. This will allow winds to shift to be mainly southerly which will bring warmer air. Thus, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday afternoon. Saturday should be the warmest day, with highs in the lower to mid 90s, with Sunday looking to be a few degrees cooler. During this time, much or all of central NC is in Moderate HeatRisk, meaning that being outside in the heat may impact individuals sensitive to heat who don't have access to adequate cooling or hydration. As the ridging shifts offshore on Sunday, highs should return to the 80s on Monday and Tuesday. During this time, a relatively dry air remains over the region, which means central NC should remain mostly dry through at least Saturday. The chance of isolated showers may return Sunday and Monday as the ridge moves offshore and greater moisture returns.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 630 AM Tuesday...
TAF period: Generally VFR conditions with high pressure are expected through 12z/Wed. Surface winds will be gusty from the NE at 12-22kt today, mostly between 14z and 22z. Winds will become light thereafter.
Outlook beyond 12z Wednesday: Generally VFR conditions expected this week.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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