textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No major changes

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM Thursday...

1) A pair of cold fronts will bring gusty winds and potentially a few light showers today and tomorrow. Frost and potentially a freeze will be possible Friday night.

2) The chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend, followed by continued below average temperatures (including additional frost/freezes) and dry conditions that will persist through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A pair of cold fronts will bring gusty winds and potentially a few light showers today and tomorrow. Frost and potentially a freeze will be possible Friday night.

The first cold front appears to move through the region Thursday afternoon into the evening. The chance for pre-frontal showers is still low, with most models suggesting that most of the rain will dry up as the front crosses the mountains. Some very light rain may still be possible early this morning ahead of the front, mainly in the Triad, and this afternoon in the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain. The REFS is suggesting that only up to trace amounts of rain are likely, with a lesser chance of 0.01 inches in a few locations in the north. Highs this afternoon will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage, but look to max out in the upper 60s in the NW to the low/mid 70s in the SE. Winds should be pretty gusty with and behind the frontal passage today, with northwesterly gusts between 25-30 mph likely this afternoon and evening. Minimum temperatures tonight should drop into the low to mid 40s, with a few cool spots in the upper 30s.

An additional reinforcing cold front should move through the region on Friday. Ahead of the fropa, a few waves may move through the region. This could allow for a few additional light showers Friday evening/night, however the chance remains low with the amount of dry air over the region. Regardless, gusty winds will be possible again Friday afternoon ahead of the front, with gusts between 20-25 mph possible. Lows Friday night will also dip into the 30s. This will be the start of the coldest air so far in the season and will likely result in some sort of frost/freeze products. It appears that the atmosphere will not decouple which should help keep temperatures somewhat warmer than it looks in future nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend, followed by continued below average temperatures (including additional frost/freezes) and dry conditions that will persist through most of next week.

A mid/upr-level cyclone will progress slowly across and offshore the Northeast and Atlantic Canada through the weekend, followed by the progression of a high amplitude ridge from the cntl CONUS to the Middle Atlantic next week. The models indicate the basal portion of a vigorous trough now progressing across the ern N. Pacific will progress beneath the ridge and may briefly form a closed low over OK by Sun, then deamplify while progressing ewd and across and offshore the Southeast Mon-Wed. Mostly high-level cloudiness will precede/accompany the latter feature and may hinder otherwise excellent radiational cooling potential Mon morning.

At the surface, cP pressure will build from central Canada to the Middle Atlantic this weekend through early next week, where it will remain while gradually weakening/modifying through most of next week.

The coldest temperatures of the period will probably result Sun morning, by which time prior episodes of CAA will have waned, and the MSL pressure gradient relaxed. Sub-freezing temperatures appear likely, except for perhaps around freezing in the urban Triangle; and a hard freeze will be possible especially in outlying/rural Piedmont locations. While some moderation will result as the high gradually weakens and airmass modifies through most of next week, its continued presence and influence will yield continued below average temperatures and multiple, consecutive mornings of frost/freeze conditions.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 105 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours. A few disturbances will move over central NC today associated with a cold frontal passage. This will allow for a low chance of a few light showers, mainly in the north, with the best chance in the Triad (INT/GSO) terminals early morning, continuing east into the afternoon. If there is a light shower at a terminal, no restrictions are expected. Otherwise, only some mid and upper level ceilings are expected. The main hazard today will be gusty winds. This afternoon into the evening expect westerly to northwesterly gusts up to around 25 kts, with a chance of some infrequent higher gusts.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through early next week. Gusty NW winds are expected to continue Friday and Saturday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.