textproduct: Raleigh

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Nothing appreciable.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 127 AM Thursday...

1) Light rain will push across central NC this morning followed by a drying and clearing trend from west to east this afternoon and evening.

2) Widespread rain Saturday with an offshore low, then drying out with below normal temperatures into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 127 AM Thursday..

KEY MESSAGE 1... Light rain will push across central NC this morning followed by a drying and clearing trend from west to east this afternoon and evening.

This past evening's broken convective line continues to push east through the southern Coastal Plain. It should push east of central NC entirely in the next hour or so. The sfc cold front was last observed over the NC Foothills. A few sites have gone calm across the western Piedmont, prompting patchy fog formation. Expect a few hours of patchy fog to persist the next few hours before the front sweeps drier air into our area. Otherwise, light rain associated with an MCV currently moving across AL/GA will push east across the southern two thirds of central NC this morning through ~18Z. A few embedded showers or isolated tstorms may push across the NC/SC border, but tstorm chances are generally pretty low. Temperatures will max out in the lower 70s this afternoon under clearing skies from west to east later today.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread rain Saturday with an offshore low, then drying out with below normal temperatures into early next week.

We continue to watch an offshore coastal low that is forecast to track just off the Outer Banks Saturday morning into the North Atlantic by Sunday morning. Some guidance shows the system may strengthen to a sub-1000 mb surface low as it tracks northeastward. Rain is forecast to develop as early as overnight Friday night, continuing most of Saturday in response to deep forcing aloft from the merging of two mid-level shortwaves and central NC in the right- entrance region of the upper jet.

Although there are still some minor differences in the surface low track and the northwest footprint of the precipitation shield, the LREF ensemble mean shows expected rainfall of a quarter inch in the NW to three quarters of an inch in the SE. The upper-end scenario suggests 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain from NW to SE, while the lower- end ranges from 0.25 to 0.5 inches. The latest forecast is closer to the LREF ensemble mean. Rain should taper off Saturday night, although another shortwave rounding the base of the trough could produce a secondary round of rain prior to midnight of a tenth of an inch or less.

Temperatures Saturday may struggle to get out of the 50s, suggested by some operational models, well over 15 degrees below normal. These below normal temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the 60s under cool high pressure. A trend to above normal is expected next week starting Monday as return flow sets in. Highs in the 70s Monday should reach the 80s by midweek. The next round of unsettled weather may approach late next week Wed or Thu with ensembles suggesting another potential frontal passage.

AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 102 AM Thursday...

The broken line of convection has largely cleared east of our TAF sites early this morning. In wake of its exit, and ahead of an approaching cold front, a few sites have shown some fog development and associated reduced visibilities this morning. Added a tempo group at most TAF sites to account for perhaps a few hours of reduced visibilities due to fog. Otherwise, an area of light rain will push east across central NC from ~13Z to 18Z today. Ceilings should largely remain VFR with this rain, but can't rule out brief drops to MVFR ceilings or visibilities while it pushes east through central NC.

Outlook: Rain and flight restrictions will accompany an area low pressure that is forecast to track along the coast of the Carolinas on Sat.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.