textproduct: Raleigh

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week, bringing dry weather to the region along with varying amounts of cloud cover. Low pressure will track south of the Carolinas late Friday into Saturday, bringing the next chance of rain to the area. Dry weather will return Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 5 PM due to occasional gusts up to 15-25 mph and minimum RH values between 25-35 percent.

* Cool/dry tonight with temps in the 30s at midnight.

Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across much of the eastern CONUS today. A weak shortwave trough is approaching the western Appalachian mountains which should bring some increased cloudiness to the area as it makes it way eastward this afternoon/evening, otherwise conditions are relatively quiet across the area. Temps remain below normal for this time of year but are still about 5-8 degrees warmer than what was seen on Thursday. Look for late day highs to top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For the rest of this afternoon, we are still looking at the potential for some occasionally breezy conditions with gusts to around 20 mph at times. Between these winds, downslope drying off the mountains, and subsequent RH's in the 25-35 percent range, the Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in place through 5pm. Winds will relax considerably after sunset and fire weather concerns will also diminish.

Temps tonight will bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with midnight temps generally in the mid/upper 30s. No threat of rain given high pressure across the area and continued downslope drying off the mountains.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

* Near normal temperatures Thursday afternoon and dry weather expected to continue.

Much of the same forecast for New Year's Day as broad northwesterly flow remains the dominant synoptic feature across the region. Thicknesses will be a bit higher Thursday as compared to today and as such, look for high temps to be about 3-5 degrees warmer than today's max temps. Highs generally ranging from around 50 in the north to the upper 50s across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain. Lows tomorrow night ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the lower 30s in the south. Continued dry with zero or near-zero PoPs.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 140 AM Wednesday...

* Chance of rain Fri night through Sat night, with the greatest chances across the S.

* Apart from above-normal lows Fri night and again Mon night-Tue, temperatures should hold within a few degrees of normal.

The focus of the long term time window is the mid level shortwave trough that will be move from the Four Corners region into TX/OK Fri/Fri night before crossing the Mid South and Southeast states with a positive tilt Sat/Sat night and pushing off the coast early Sun. An associated and preceding surface low over the Red River Valley early Fri is expected to track eastward along an initially diffuse but sharpening frontal zone extending E across the Carolinas through Sat night, its energy transferring to a secondary coastal low just off the NC coast early Sun. Models and ensemble systems have agreed fairly well on a precip shield ahead of and attending this low, with preceding warm/moist air advection, but have varied a bit with the rain shield's northward extent. After a few runs that suggested the rain will be largely confined to our far S and SE or even held across SC, there appears to be a trend back a bit more to the N. The NBM and LREF 25th percentile still keep the CWA dry, and the GEFS mean shows little to no precip N of 64. However, the NBM mean and other LREF component model cores still favor a good chance of measurable rain, especially across the far S and SE. The forcing for ascent is apt to be limited, so the storm total rainfall amounts should be fairly light, ranging from a few hundredths near the VA border to a quarter or third inch or so in the far S. Skies will trend toward mostly cloudy to cloudy starting early Fri, then the highest rain chances look to be from mid morning Sat through the late afternoon, before exiting from the SE Sat night with clearing skies NW to SE. Highs Fri and Sat should be within a few degrees of normal, likely leaning above normal over the S half and near to slightly below normal near the VA border, although if the low ends up stronger and tracking S of the CWA, a stronger low level NNE flow into central NC and evap cooling may result in cooler-than-forecast highs Sat. Lows Fri night should be 1-2 categories above normal with thick cloud cover.

After the shortwave trough and surface low move offshore Sat night, a Canadian-source but modified surface high will build in from the NW for Sun through Mon, yielding dry weather and generally fair skies, although orographically enhanced high clouds are likely Sun night into Mon morning in the fast WNW steering flow. We maintain this mostly flat WNW flow aloft with slight backing into early next week, keeping us more influence by Pacific than Arctic waves. Dry weather should hold through Tue, although model output does favor a broad wave moving through the Great Lakes region that could bring a trend to mostly cloudy skies for Mon night and Tue. Expect above normal temps Mon night and Tue, as low level thicknesses rise to 10- 20 m above normal. -GIH

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There could be some minimal diurnal cumulus through the afternoon, otherwise the only cloud cover should be high clouds moving in from the northwest which will persist overnight. Wind gusts have not been as widespread as expected so far today, and have removed the wind gusts from FAY/RWI. The wind should be from the southwest through the period, and cannot rule out that some wind gusts could develop late Thursday morning (did not have enough confidence to add to the TAF at this time).

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Friday night, but eventually widespread rain and IFR conditions are expected into Saturday night. Dry VFR conditions should return for Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 5 PM today.

Very dry fuels will combine with low relative humidity values near 25 to 35 percent and wind gusts of up to 15 to 25 mph to create dangerous fire weather conditions for all of central NC.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.