textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible today over the far eastern plains.

- Red Flag warning for interior mountains today

- Severe storms possible tomorrow, Tuesday, wednesday into Thursday as a favorable svr wx pattern remains over the region.

- Critical fire weather conditions over higher terrain into mid week

- Much needed moisture for the mountains fcst to return THU and FRI.

SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/

Issued at 114 PM MDT Sun Jun21 2026

Rest of today,

Latest obs indicate moisture over the plains is hanging in as dwpts remained in the 50 or above below 7500 feet. The deeper moisture wes note over the far eastern plains where 60 dwpts were noted. Storms were already beginning to form over NE Colorado, and with the NW flow aloft any rotating storm will have the propensity to move to the right of the mean flow, although the hodographs today are pretty straight so we may get left and right splits once the convection matures. Overall given the location of the sfc trough over NE CO, the greatest strong/svr storm potential will be over are far eastern plains late this afternoon and evening.

Later tonight, guidance continues to indicate a cluster of storms will back-build into the southeast plains as a 700 mb trough propagates over the region. These storms are forecast to become most prevalent after midnight and affect the southeast plains into the early morning hours.

Red Flag conditions were occurring over several region of the interior valleys and mountains early this afternoon, and this will continue into the early evening hours.

LONG TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 114 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Weather looks to be quite active this upcoming week as a favorable pattern for severe storms develops over the region. NW mid level moderate flow will continue through most of the week and several disturbances will move over the region in this flow. Additionally, upslope flow will be in place. The combinations of the NW Flow aloft and the surface upslope will set up a favorable shear pattern, along with sufficient CAPE, for organized severe storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Given the NW flow, storms will have the potential to affect the I-25 corridor cities if right turning supercells develop vicinity of the mtn/plains interface. The severe weather threat will likely last into Thursday. By Friday, flow aloft finally weakens and the threat for organized convection will decrease.

Over the higher terrain, it will remain hot, dry and breezy at times as a modest jet will be over the region. This will keep fire danger high over the mtns and valleys, A Red Flag warning is in effect tomorrow and additional warnings will likely be needed through Wednesday for the interior mtns and valleys.

Later in the week, guidance indicated that mid level moisture moving up from the tropical Pacific will move over S California and then into COlorado, This should bring an increasing chance of precip to the mtns starting Thursday and lasting into Saturday. Likewise, we should hopefully start to see some rain over the higher terrain by later in the week.

It looks to dry out by Sunday all areas as a rather anonymous mid level trough develops over the Pacific NW and rather strong flow (and very warm temps aloft) move over the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Diurnal flow will continue this afternoon but a boundary will push through KCOS and KPUB around 00 UTC and this will bring breezy NE winds to the two taf sites. into the early evening hours. There will also be a chance of a late night shower at KPUB.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue over the interior mountains and valleys Today through Wednesday, and then again next Sunday and Monday. Red Flag warnings are already in effect for tomorrow for the interior and additional highlights will likely be needed for the same regions through mid week.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220- 222>224. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-223- 224.