textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- TODAY - Warm again then a cold front pushes across in afternoon. Some afternoon/evening thunderstorms, a few possibly strong far eastern plains.

- Patchy critical fire weather conditions this afternoon gap flow areas and parts of San Luis Valley.

- Much cooler Friday; some thunder possible along mtns/plains interface and along CO/NM border.

- Saturday, warm and windy with passing afternoon showers/TSRA

- SUN and MON - Critical Fire Weather Conditions LIKELY over the plains.

- Cooler/unsettled region-wide TUE and WED.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1212 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Today will be similar to yesterday temperature-wise, but we may see a better chance of showers and thunderstorms over the plains/east slopes of mtns in the afternoon and evening as a cool front pushes across during the afternoon and evening. SPC has the potential of a few stronger storms out near the border, mainly being a wind threat. The good news is that if we do see some storms later today, they should actually produce some measurable precipitation.

Tonight, we should see low clouds move in behind the front. Showers will also likely linger over the far eastern plains well into the evening hours. Interior mountains and valleys should be dry.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Friday...

It will be cool across the plains. However interior sections will likely not see much change on Friday as compared today. Showers will be possible lower elevations in the morning but precip will likely not add up to much. However, we should see a better chance of precip develop along the mtns/plains interface later in the afternoon. We will also likely see a better chance of precip along the CO/NM border. One or two of these storms could be on the stronger side. Overall, it should be a rather cloudy day across the plains on Friday.

Saturday...

Modest southwest flow develops aloft as a de-amplifying short wave embedded in the more significant trough over California moves over the region. Although it will be warm and windy on Saturday, the atmospheric column should be on the moist-side and fire weather concerns should be low. Once again we could see a quick moving shower or thunderstorm across the region during the afternoon. Best chance of pops should be over the mtns and along the CO/NM border. Any snow that occurs with this first short wave will likely be above treeline.

Sunday and Monday...

These two days will be critical fire weather days, mainly across most of the plains, as strong SW flow remains over the region and humidity values decrease significantly (<10% RH, winds 30-45 mph). This has the potential to be a higher-end Critical Fire situation on both days.

Tuesday and wednesday...

DESI and deterministic guidance show an unsettled pattern moving across the district. Deterministic guidance shows a fair robust high longitudinal trough moving across the region. Based on this data and pattern recognition, confidence is higher than normal that it will get cooler over the region and the mtns should get some substantial precip with this event (It does appear it is moving rather slow and the trough is lagging behind). Hopefully this system shows a greater tendency to close off and the plains gets some decent precip with it. Time will tell. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Variable VFR cloudiness will affect KCOS, KALS, and KPUB today with afternoon convective cloud cover developing over the mountains and pushing eastward across the plains. KCOS will have the best chance of seeing some -SHRA at the terminal and have included this in a Prob30 group. Gusty outflow winds will be possible with showers today. A cold front will push through the plains during the evening bringing a northerly wind shift at both KCOS and KPUB between 00z and 01z. Clouds will lower and thicken towards the tail end of the TAF period with MVFR cigs possible just beyond the 24 hour TAF forecast window at both COS and KPUB. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.