textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High Fire Danger for much of the area this evening until 10 PM due to gusty winds and low humidity levels. Weak RH recovery expected overnight tonight.

- Critical fire weather conditions again for Tuesday, and onward through the work week for the mountains and at times the adjacent plains depending on position of the dryline.

- Severe storms possible Tuesday far eastern plains with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks.

- Hottest days of the forecast will be Thursday through Saturday, then a hint at some possible moisture across the plains for Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1022 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Quick update to allow Red Flag Warning to expire at 10 PM as most areas have seen winds decrease sufficiently. Poor humidity recovery is expected tonight which will set the stage for another critical fire weather day on Tuesday. Made some grid updates to account for cold front making a stronger push into the northern I-25 corridor this evening. It is loosing steam as it pushes southward and current distance speed tool puts it into the fire area after midnight now and perhaps closer to 2 AM. Suspect further slowing could occur allowing winds to stay more west to northwesterly before shifting around from the east to southeast Tues AM. Followed the HRRR more closely as it had a better track on the front timing earlier. -KT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently...Strong upper longwave trough over the western US has produced strong southwest flow across the Four Corners region, leading to hot and dry conditions across the forecast area and widespread high fire danger. Temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the 70s to near 80F for the high valleys, and upper 80s to near 100F for the plains.

Tonight...Little change to the upper pattern through the night, with brisk southwest flow aloft continuing. Current Red Flag Warning drops off at 10 PM as temps cool and winds are expected to lessen, but overnight humidity recovery is forecast to be somewhat poor along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts. This sets up a potential dangerous situation for ongoing wildfires, due to persistent activity overnight and a quicker start up period tomorrow morning. Residents are urged to exercise caution this evening with outdoor activities. Overnight low temps are forecast to drop into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Tomorrow...Very similar pattern in place, though a lobe of energy in the upper trough was move up into the Great Basin, shifting the flow aloft across CO to a more south-southwest direction. Gusty, hot and dry conditions will persist across the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor, therefore a Red Flag is in place from 10 AM through 10 PM for those areas. However, farther east models indicate some llvl moisture being drawn up across NM and into the far eastern CO plains, with model CAPE of around 2000 j/kg right along the eastern border in the afternoon. Bulk shear is sitting right at around 30 kts, so may threats will likely be strong gusty winds, lightning and potentially larger hail, and SPc has brought the Slight area for severe thunderstorms back into Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. Plan on highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to near 100F for the plains once again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Little change to the ongoing upper pattern, with the upper trough keeping a predominantly southwest flow aloft in place through Wed, while at the surface the dryline across the east will waver, allowing some llvl moisture to creep into the southeast corner of CO. High fire danger persists, so went ahead and pushed the Fire Weather Watch out for Wed for a nearly identical area as Tue, with the question remaining on how far west the higher surface dewpoints will track.

Thursday through Saturday...The area starts to "dry" out even moreso as the flow aloft shifts from southwest to a more westerly zonal flow, as the trough begins to break down and migrate to the north. Storm potential for the east dissipates, and fire wx concerns intensify for all areas including the eastern plains. High temps will climb into the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 95- 105F range for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Long range models indicate that an upper ridge tries to build into the US southern plains, drawing gulf moisture up across NM TX, NM and OK into southeastern CO. This would potentially provide for 5 to 10 degrees of "cooling" for the plains, as well as a shot of some beneficial precipitation. Stay tuned. Moore

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 953 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

KALS: Weaker winds overnight, with gusty SW winds picking up by 17Z or so. Gusts in the afternoon will range 25-35 knots, with some mid- level clouds moving in.

KCOS: North winds through most of tonight after a weak boundary pushed through. Gusty SE winds pick up by 18Z Tuesday, with gusts around 35 knots in the afternoon. Mid-level clouds increase through the end of the period.

KPUB: Expect variable winds and persistent smoke overnight across the area. Winds turn southeast Tuesday morning, picking up in the afternoon with gusts 25-30 knots. Mid-level clouds will move in and last into Tuesday evening.

All three terminals will see passing chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into evening. Coverage will be isolated to scattered, increasing a bit during the later half of the afternoon. Mainly concerned with strong outflow winds, though rain will be possible if any storms move over the terminals. Given the spotty coverage, included as PROB30s at all three TAF sites for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A very heavy FireWx-centric weather pattern is in place, and should remain for the most part through the work week. A Red Flag Warning remains in place for all of the CWA today until 10 PM, and weak RH recovery overnight is anticipated. Another Red Flag Warning remains in place for much of the area Tuesday from 10 AM through 10 PM, but kept the far eastern plains out due to the possibility of some stronger afternoon convection closer to the eastern border. Finally, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for a nearly identical area for Wednesday morning through Wednesday night, due to the expected combination of gusty winds and RH levels in the 5-15% range. Additional highlights for Thu and Fri for portions of the area are likely.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ220>233. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ220>230-233.