textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected across Fremont County this afternoon through 7 PM.

- Isolated light precipitation and thunder this afternoon and evening across the eastern mountains and southeast plains.

- Widespread high fire danger possible Thursday through Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Currently...Upper Pacific low was located over the California Baja late Monday night, slowly moving east, while an upper shortwave was pushing east across the Pacific NW. skies were mostly clear, but brisk westerly flow in spots has kept temps rather mild so far as of 11 PM with 40s and 50s across the plains, and upper 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys. Winds should decouple and lighten overnight, with expected minimum temps Tue morn in the 30s to around 40F for the plains, and 20s and 30s for the high valleys.

Today and Tonight...The upper low will track east along the southern US border tonight through midday Tue, but does not open up and eject to the east until it hits south central NM. This track is even further south than solutions just 24 hrs ago, and keeps much of the energy and activity just south and east of the forecast area. There will still be some isolated snow for the southern mts, with minimal amounts, and isolated showers tracking across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening with one or two storms possible - but this latest solution is disappointing. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph, with the greatest chance across Baca and Prowers counties.

Meanwhile, gusty west winds this afternoon will combine with continuing dry and warm conditons to produce high fire danger for Fremont County, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 7 PM. There may be some spotty critical conditions for far western Pueblo County and southern El Paso County this afternoon as well, but areal coverage did not look to be broad enough to warrant any highlight for those areas.

A surface cold front is still slated to drop south across the Palmer Divide during the evening, with the initial frontal passage between 6 and 9 PM, then the stronger northerly winds with the true colder air then pushing through during the overnight hours.

As for temps, given a warmer start and a mid-evening frontal passage, plan on highs today in the 60s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Overnight lows will cool into the 20s for the San Luis Valley, and upper 20s to mid 30s for the plains and the Upper Arkansas River Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Wednesday...A cooler, post-frontal day across southeast and south- central CO, with brisk northerly winds across much of the plains through at least the first half of the day. Plan on much more seasonal temps with upper 40s to mid 50s for most areas, and nearing 60F for the San Luis Valley. In fact, the San Luis Valley will not be affected as much by the cold front passage, so continued warm and dry conditions there will lead to some spotty critical fire weather conditions. No highlights are planned at this time.

Thursday through Saturday...The forecast area falls back into the thick of high fire danger concerns, as steady west to northwest flow aloft keeps dry conditions in place, with steadily warming temps. The model blend indicates temps climbing back up into the 70s to lower 80s for the plains, and nearing 70F for the high valleys over the weekend, so more fire weather highlights are probable.

Saturday night through Monday...Long range models continue to indicate an upper shortwave crossing the Rockies Saturday, bringing some showers to the central mts and Palmer Divide starting Sat evening, as well as dropping a cold front south across the plains Sat night. High temps for Sunday are forecast to be 25 to 30 degrees colder than those realized on Saturday, with continued cool but seasonal temps on Monday. Something to watch for and be aware of. Moore

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Increasing VFR high cloudiness expected on Tuesday, otherwise expect mostly clear skies. Elevated drainage winds can be expected overnight at times with KALS seeing enhanced southerly winds, KPUB seeing enhanced westerly winds, and KCOS seeing enhanced north to northwest winds. Winds will be diurnally driven with light southerly for KPUB and KALS through the day Tuesday while winds swing around from an easterly direction at KCOS. Northwest winds will pick up at all three terminals between 22-23z with gusts to around 25 kts. A front will shift winds out of the north to northwest at 15-30 kts between 03z-05z. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222.