textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot for Sunday and Monday with diminishing thunderstorm chances and expanding Heat Advisories.

- Cool front moves through the plains Monday night bringing cooler temperature, and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast mountains and plains Tue and Wed. Burn scar flash flood risk increases.

- Another warming and drying trend for late week with isolated thunderstorm activity over the mountains while we wait for monsoon moisture to return late next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Drier air working through the upper ridge has resulted in more sparse convection over the mountains this afternoon. With dew points falling into the 30s and 40s, sbCAPE should be limited to 1000 J/kg or less, with highest values along the southern Sangre De Cristo range. We could still see an isolated stronger storm or two, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall which could jeopardize burn scars, but give the more sparse coverage the risk remains low with the stronger cells likely confined to the southern areas of the forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be a greater risk for storms across northern parts of the area. Otherwise, expect clearing overnight with low temperatures similar to this morning. Cooled off some of our valley locations where clear skies and a drier airmass should allow for efficient radiational cooling.

Temperature start to heat up for Sunday as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward over the area. Temperatures pop up into the upper 90s to 103 across the plains which puts El Paso, Pueblo and Fremont counties into Heat Advisory territory, especially where urban areas may amplify warming. For the remainder of the southeast plains, temperatures are still below heat advisory thresholds in spite of similar readings due to a warmer overall climatology for those regions. It will still be hot though, so precautions should be taken to avoid heat stress. Any afternoon thunderstorms will be very isolated and confined to the southern areas with gusty outflow winds the primary risk.

Record Highs for Aug 2nd:

COS: 90 in 1902 PUB:105 in 2008 ALS: 89 in 1969

-KT

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

It will be warmer still for Monday as the upper high spreads eastward and gets flattened on its northern extent by upper troughing moving through the northern U.S. H7 temperatures warm to +20 to +24 C which should put high temperatures well into the 100- 107 degree range across much of the plains. Based on climo and heat advisory criteria, this resulted in some expansions to the ongoing Heat Advisories for Monday to include the lower Arkansas River valley from Otero, Bent and Prowers counties. It is possible later shifts may need to add Baca and Eastern Las Animas, but for the time being, wasn't getting widespread enough criteria for those areas. Temperatures over the San Luis Valley should climb into the mid 90s which is hot compared to climo for those areas as well. With Heat Advisory criteria being met, have added a Heat Advisory for the San Luis Valley as well. Record Highs may come close or be challenged at many locations on Monday.

Record Highs for Aug 3rd:

COS: 99 in 1954 PUB: 103 in 1902 ALS: 91 in 2024

A cold front moves through the southeast plains Monday night, sparking some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There are some timing differences with NAM12 on the earlier side of the spectrum. This front may be accompanied with some strong north winds gusting up to 40 mph given the tight surface pressure gradient. Wind shift out of the east on Tuesday bringing low level moisture return into the I-25 corridor and southeast mountains. Moisture appears to lag a bit but still sufficient to bring some higher CAPE and increased shear for a strong storm or two. Precipitable waters are around normal, or slightly above across the southeast plains, which is not excessive, but high enough to pose an enhanced risk for Flash flooding on burn scars across the southeast mountains. Temperatures will drop back around 10-15 degrees across the southeast plains and around 2-4 degrees out west, bringing a break from the heat.

It will be slightly warmer on Wednesday with a more typical day 2 strong to severe thunderstorm set up with easterly surface winds beneath northwesterly flow aloft. A disturbance moving through the flow will bring another round of thunderstorms in the afternoon which could be strong to severe for the southeast mountains and adjacent plains, depending on the low level moisture quality and resultant CAPE. This will be another elevated risk day for flash flooding on burn scars.

Another drying and warming trend sets in for late week as the upper high builds again out west. There are still some signals that monsoon moisture will gradually return late next weekend or early next week. Until then, daily afternoon thunderstorm chances will continue over the mountains as weak waves move through west to northwest flow aloft. Until then, 100 degree temperatures will return for the plains for Friday into Saturday with 80s and lower 90s for the valleys, and 60s and 70s for the mountains. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 539 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Convection over and near the higher terrain, especially across the southern Sangre de Cristo range, will diminish and end through the early evening, with clearing skies overnight. Convection will be more limited through the day on Sunday, as upper high pressure builds across the Rockies. With that said, VFR conditions and generally light diurnal wind regimes are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through out this taf period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ069>071- 083>086-093-097-098. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086.