textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, then again Tuesday and Wednesday, with the best coverage continuing to be along and north of Highway 50.

- Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley Tuesday, with elevated fire weather conditions across the southern I-25 corridor as well. Same area will see high fire danger again on Wednesday.

- Cooler and wetter weather still on track for Thursday and Friday, with an increasing chance of widespread rain/high terrain snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Cold front roughly along Highway 50 early this afternoon, with showers and isolated thunderstorms starting to develop in the moister air mass behind the front. For the rest of the afternoon into this evening, expect front to continue to push south toward the New Mexico border, with gusty east winds over most of the plains into the evening. Best coverage of showers and thunderstorms into this evening will be over the Pikes Peak region, and a brief strong storm remains possible over the Palmer Divide. Elsewhere, just isolated showers expected, mainly north of Highway 50, with only very light rainfall. Showers fade away at most locations toward midnight, though continued e-se winds will likely generate some low level stratus along I-25 by morning. A few spots on the plains, especially around Lamar, could see some patchy frost early Tuesday morning as winds diminish, though enough cloud cover will remain in place to keep chance for widespread frost low.

Repeat scenario on Tuesday, with jet overhead and cold front backing through the plains in the afternoon. Again, highest precip chances will be over the northern half of the area, with models showing at least scattered tsra over the plains north of the Arkansas River as front comes through, just isolated activity elsewhere. Surface westerly winds increase slightly as mid-level flow strengthens, with increasing fire danger over the San Luis Valley and across the southern I-25 corridor ahead of the cold front. Have hoisted a Red Flag warning for the San Luis Valley, but held off farther east, as front may arrive early enough to boost humidity for the last half of the day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Cool and potentially frosty in spots on the plains Tuesday night, though again clouds may limit temperature fall. Upper trough drops south through the nrn Rockies on Wed, while low pressure deepens off the California coast. Cold front forecast to drop south through the plains during the day, then surface low spins up in nern NM Wed evening. Showers will spread from north to south across the region through the day Wed, with some isolated thunderstorms possible as well given presence of weak instability. Precip chances increase Wed night into Thu, as upward motion slowly ramps up, with widespread rain and snow across the region through the period. Snow level starts around 9k feet Wed evening, then falls toward 7k feet Thu night, which suggests several inches of accumulating snowfall possible over the mountains, especially eastern ranges (Sangres/Wets/Pikes Peak), where upslope flow increases precip intensity. Still some question about precip duration/ending time on Friday/Friday night, as at least a few ensembles/deterministic model solutions shift strongest upward motion and heavier precip south of the region by midday Fri, though bulk of solutions keep at least light precip going through the day. NBM leans wet, keeping high pops in place until around midnight Fri night, which looks good for now, and didn't deviate far from the blended model solution. Total QPF Wed-Fri ranges from 1-2 inches over the ern mountains and I-25 corridor, with 1-1.5 inches on the plains. Lighter amounts farther west, with mainly 0.5 to 1 inches over interior valleys and along the Continental Divide.

Warming/drying trend then develops over the weekend, though enough residual moisture lingers to likely pop some weak afternoon convection over the high terrain both Sat/Sun.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upper shortwave crossing the Rockies is responsible for the lingering convection over the Palmer Divide tonight through 08z or so, then varying cigs. As this feature pushes east, it will drop another cold front south across the Palmer Divide in the 19z-22z time frame, primarily affecting KCOS and KPUB terminals and the eastern plains.

KCOS: VCSH and VCTS to the north and to the east of the terminal through 08z as activity wanes. IFR cigs due to post-convective stratus by 10z, then improving after 14z. Another cold front drops down out of the north by 22z with gusts to 22 kt.

KPUB: E winds with MVFR-IFR CIGS developing by 10z and lasting through 16z. Another cold front drops down out of the north by 23z with gusts to 28 kt.

KALS: VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs. Light S-SW winds overnight. W-SW winds picking back up and gusting to 24 kt by 18z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224.