textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy conditions expected for Sunday and Monday most areas with an uptick in thunderstorm chances Mon across the plains though low confidence on severe thunderstorm potential due to timing of moisture return

- Cooler and wetter for Tuesday and Wednesday with risk for heavy rainfall potential increasing with thunderstorms for all areas

- Trending drier and warmer again late week into next weekend though at least isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains each day

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

One more dry day expected for today across southern CO with temperatures warming around 2 to 5 degrees over those of yesterday. West southwest flow aloft over the region will mix down in the afternoon across the San Luis Valley and southern portions of the I- 25 corridor in the afternoon resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Fortunately land management agencies report fuels are too moist or in green up for fire weather highlights. But humidity values will be below the critical 15 percent threshold across all of the southeast plains and valleys once again. NBM temperatures looked on target and on par with guidance values so no changes made.

There could be some elevated afternoon/early evening convection skim by northern portions of the forecast area but odds of any measurable precipitation looks extremely low and will carry mostly silent (sub 10 percent) pops for now. Tonight will be clear and cool again across the valleys where a dry airmass will allow for efficient radiational cooling. The boundary to our north pushes back southward into the plains overnight which may keep temperatures on the warmer side due to some elevated northerly winds and low level moisture return.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

The front pushes through the southeast plains Monday morning, laying up near the southern CO border in the afternoon. The real cooler airmass behind the boundary will stay to the north, with temperatures on Monday actually warming a few degrees more for most areas as heights rise aloft with the building southern plains upper ridge. On the northern fringes of this ridge, flow aloft is still respectable, so deep layer shears are running around 35-40 kts. But HREF mean CAPE Monday afternoon range from a few hundred J/kg along the I-25 corridor to around 1500 J/kg across Kiowa county. HREF paintballs show convection developing along the Palmer Divide and across Baca/Prowers counties in the afternoon and rolling eastward through the evening, as a convective cluster develops across northeast or east central CO and pushes off into western KS overnight. Convective coverage across southeast CO looks pretty isolated but parameters would be in place for a strong to severe storm if they can develop. The Palmer Divide and Kiowa county look the most likely to see some large hail or damaging winds, with risks leaning more towards strong winds farther south and west towards the I-25 corridor. Once again, the timing of the moisture return and resultant CAPE will be the key ingredient for storm strengths and it is possible that this boundary could slip southward which could increase the hail risk over more of southern CO.

The southern plains ridge continues to amplify for Tuesday and gets shunted eastward on Wednesday as weak disturbances and moisture in an active southern stream gets funneled up across southern CO. Thunderstorm chances ramp up for Tuesday and Wednesday. Deep layer shears get progressively weaker as the flow aloft decreases. So as afternoon and evening thunderstorms become more widespread, storms will become less organized, with heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and some brief small hail possible. May need to monitor burn scars more closely as storms become more slower moving, though mesoscale details are difficult to pin down this far out and confidence that burn scars will be directly impacted is still low. Temperatures will cool off a few degrees with increased clouds and afternoon convection, and nudged NBM down a few degrees for Tuesday.

The pattern becomes more messy for late week into the weekend as weak southwest flow with embedded disturbances continues to track across CO. Thunderstorm chances decrease especially into next Sunday as the atmosphere appears to dry out some ahead of another more amplified trough taking shape across the northwest U.S. However, sufficient moisture lingers for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each day, which is a wetter trend compared to model runs last evening. Temperatures rebound back into the 90s across the plains by next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 527 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions with dry weather will persist across the TAF sites this period. While winds will generally be light and diurnally driven, a period of gusty winds are likely at ALS and COS sites later today.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.