textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Meteorological Critical Fire Weather conditions across much of south central and southeast Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered high based showers and storms Tuesday afternoon, with potential for a strong/severe storm across the far SE plains.

- Above seasonal temperatures through mid week with cooler conditions Thursday.

- Warmer into the early weekend, with cooler and more unsettled weather for the late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating increasing southwest flow aloft across the region, with a short wave trough lifting out across the Eastern Great Basin at this time. Regional radars has the last of northeastern Colorado convection moving into northwest Kansas, with low level moisture and easterly outflow from previous storms backing across the plains at this time. Current dew pts in the 50s to around 60F are in place across the plains, save for the southern I-25 corridor with dew pts in the 20s in Walsenburg (K4V1) and Trinidad (KTAD), where westerlies are still prevailing. Further west, dew pts are in the teens, 20s and 30s, with a noticeable increase in available moisture across the Desert SW and into the Eastern Great Basin ahead of the short wave. Regional satellite imagery does indicate increasing mid and upper level moisture into south central Colorado, with some stratus developing across portions of the plains.

For today into tonight...southwest flow continues to increase across the region as the Eastern Great Basin shortwave continues to lift out across the Northern Rockies later tonight. Increasing mid and upper level moisture and some uvv from the passing wave will help to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms late this morning into the late afternoon, with the best coverage across the southern mtns into the Raton Mesa and southeast plains. Model soundings do indicate inverted V soundings, as low level moisture mixes out across the plains, owning to mainly virga and gusty winds expected with most storms. However, further east, generally north and east of a Eads to Kim line, HREF is indicating mean CAPE 800-1500 j/kg supporting the potential for a strong/severe storm with strong wind gusts to over 60 mph and marginally severe hail the main threats. Gusty southwest winds of 25 to 45 mph develop across the region through the late morning and afternoon, leading to a hodgepodge of Red Flag Warnings, based on current fuel conditions, however, we have added the San Luis Valley into the Red Flag Warning for today, as their fuel status was downgraded to "critical" on Monday. With the expected convective cloud cover, we did temper NBM highs a tad for today, which better matches other statistical guidance.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Wednesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow remains progged across the region on Wednesday, as another short wave translates across the Northern Rockies, with said passing wave sending a cold front across the plains on Thursday. Models remain consistent with dry air in place across the region both days, with breezy westerly winds on Wednesday leading to possible meteorological Critical Fire Weather conditions across portions of the area once again, though have left current Fire Weather Watch in tact for areas where fuels are deemed critical. Highs on Wednesday to remain some 10 degrees above seasonal levels, however did once again lower NBM a tad. Passing wave Wednesday night sends a dry front across the plains, leading to near seasonal temperatures across the plains on Thursday, with continued above seasonal highs across the western half of the district.

Latest model data supports modest westerly flow across the region through the early weekend, leading to at and above seasonal temperatures in place across the region. Model data does support a slow increase in available moisture across the plains, with increasing chances of afternoon showers and storms, mainly across the eastern mtns and plains for Friday and Saturday. Stronger passing systems across the Northern Tier will bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the region Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 551 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MVFR stratus at KCOS and KPUB will continue to scatter through the morning, with VFR cigs both sites 14z-15z. VFR conditions then expected through the day and into tonight, with a couple waves of mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms possible late morning into mid-afternoon. Chances still look too low (10-20 percent) to include in either taf, though will monitor radar trends through the morning for potential inclusion (especially at KPUB). Main risk from any convection would be gusty/erratic outflow winds to 40 kts, along with lightning and brief rainfall. Outside of convection, strong s-sw winds will develop by 18z, with gusts 30-35 kts until 02z.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, but have included a vcsh from late morning until mid-afternoon, with potential to upgrade a -vcts if convection strengthens later this morning. S-SW winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts 35-40 kts until 02z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Meteorological Critical Fire Weather Conditions are expected across most of south central and southeast Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday, as drier air mixes across the region within breezy southwest flow aloft. There remains a hodgepodge of Red Flag Warnings across the district today, based on latest fuel status, though we have added the San Luis Valley to today's warning, as fuel status was downgraded to "critical" on Monday afternoon. In addition, we can't rule out a few fire starts from lighting, with isolated to scattered high based storms this afternoon, with the best coverage across the southern mtns into the southern I-25 Corridor. We have left the Fire Weather Watch in tact for Wednesday afternoon, as we have the most confidence in rh conditions being reached, however winds, especially across the eastern portions of the district may be marginal.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ222>224-228>231-234>236. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-228>231-235.