textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms likely on the plains next several days over the plains.

- RED FLAG Warnings in effect over parts of the region today and tomorrow over the interior mountains.

- Moisture should increase over the mountains Thursday and Friday.

- Hot and Dry (Critical fire wx conditions) will once again develop Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For today, severe thunderstorms are once again likely over the plains this afternoon into this evening. All areas at the lower elevations could see severe storms today, with the best chance over the far eastern plains where the better moisture and shear are located. The primary threat will be very large damaging hail. In the short term, best chance of strong/severe storms will be from El Paso county east-southeast towards Lamar. Additional storms will be possible later this afternoon and into this evening.

For tomorrow, the severe threat will be a bit more farther north and east, with the best chances of strong to severe storms from roughly Pueblo to Kim. Areas south of this line are expected to dry out, decreasing the threat of storms over this region. North of this line severe storms will be possible in the afternoon. Some of the guidance shows storms may for later in the day.

In the interior mountains for today and tomorrow it will be hot, dry and breezy. Red Flag conditions are likely both days.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Tomorrow night...

Guidance shows that storms, some strong to severe, will linger well into the night time hours Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. POPs from the initial NBM were categorical for most of the plains between 06 - 12 UTC Wed, and these values looked well overdone. However, I believe it we will see showers and storms and kept relatively high pops ongoing through the above mentioned time period above.

Wednesday, strong to severe storms will be possible, but believe storms will likely form much later in the day as I suspect the boundary layer over the region will be rather stable in the morning. Once again, all types of severe weather will be possible on wednesday.

For the mtns on Wednesday, Red Flag conditions will once again be possible over the interior mtns.

Thursday, severe weather threat will be much further north this day as the better flow will push poleward. However believe we will still see a threat of stronger storms this day over the region. Additionally, a moisture plume should move into the mtns and this should put an end to the red flag conditions, and we may see some wetting rains over the higher terrain. Unfortunately. we will likely see some lightning which may produce new fire starts.

Friday into Saturday...we should see a good chance of afternoon and evening storms both days over the entire region this day.

Sunday into next week. an strong trough will develop over the Pacific northwest and this will bring rather strong and dry mid level flow over the region, Temps will warm up significantly and 100s should return to the plains. Critical fire weather conditions will likely ramp up once again. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Gusty winds out of the west are forecast for Tuesday afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...gusty northeast to easterly winds will continue this evening due to outflow from thunderstorms to the east, with gusts near 30 kts likely. Winds will dissipate later this evening, becoming northerly overnight. Easterly winds will increase through Tuesday morning, with thunderstorms developing near KCOS by late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Red Flag conditions will occur today and tomorrow over the interior mountains and valleys. For tomorrow, critical conditions will push into Fremont county. Critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible Wednesday.

Some moisture may move into the mtns Thursday and Friday. It dries out and once again become hot and windy Sunday into early next week.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-223- 224. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ220- 222>224.