textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding for burn scars and urban areas expected through Sunday and possibly even Monday.

- Flash Flood Watches expanded to include El Paso County through this evening, and another Flash Flood Watch posted for the Aspen Acres burn scar for Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Stronger storms possible across the southeast plains over the weekend as shear increases and instability remains high.

- Slight drying trend next week though daily thunderstorm chances will continue as the pattern shifts more to a NW flow regime

UPDATE

Issued at 807 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Updated to expire the Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar at 8PM. There are still rain showers moving in from the west, which should impact the burn scar through 10 PM. Rain rates are light with these showers, and flash flooding does not pose a threat at this time. Also adjusted pops across the Plains based on the latest radar data, with most of the activity stretching from the Palmer Divide, southeast towards Baca County. This activity will continue to lift northeast over the next several hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southwest flow continues aloft with the next embedded disturbance back over the 4 corners region resolved by models to lift northeastward across CO through this evening. This will bring more widespread thunderstorms to the region through this evening with the focus shifting eastward across the plains through the overnight hours. Precipitable waters are running 100-150 percent of normal according to Blended TPW with highest values across the southeast plains where dew points will stay in the 50s and 60s today. Mountains and valleys are progged to increase as well as next impulse of moisture shifts in from the southwest. Needless to say, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the primary risks with thunderstorms through this evening, although an increase in CAPE (up to 2000 J/kg) across the plains could lead to some pulsey type embedded severe storms with strong downburst winds (most likely in the wet microburst category) and even some hail to near or briefly above 1 inch in diameter with any storm interactions/outflow collisions. Deep layer shear still looks pretty weak today, so not expecting a widespread severe risk overall.

Main concern will continue to be the burn scars with the potential for flash flooding. Already have a watch posted for Aspen Acres through 8 PM, and although odds of greater than 0.25 inches of rain still rests in the 15-30% range (higher probs in NBM than HREF), the very moist atmosphere combined with a disturbance and at least some weak upslope flow make this a prudent watch. Could see localized 2 inches or more of rain under the more intense cores (similar to yesterday). Also added a Flash Flood Watch for El Paso county where heavy rainfall across northern El Paso county yesterday and portions of southern El Paso could lead to rapid runoff. The urban Colorado Springs area will also be vulnerable to flash flooding should a stronger storm impact this region. Thunderstorm activity pulls off to the northeast this evening and overnight, but the active monsoon plume could keep a few lingering showers over the mountains and delay clearing overnight. This will keep low temperatures on the warm side overnight. Could even see some patchy fog/stratus overnight across portions of the southeast plains.

Saturday looks very similar to today with high precipitable waters remaining over the region, though with perhaps a slight decrease across the mountains out west. Easterly upslope flow across the plains keeps dew points in the 50s and lower 60s, and afternoon CAPE will range up to 2000 J/kg. Models suggest deep layer shears will be a little stronger due to stronger flow aloft and we could see a few more severe thunderstorms across the plains in the afternoon. With a stronger signal for upslope flow on the plains, and deep atmospheric moisture over the region, will issue another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar on Saturday. It's also possible that the lower Arkansas River Valley portion of the plains may see delayed destabilization depending on outflows from thunderstorms the evening before. If this occurs, the favored areas for strong storms may stay concentrated across the Palmer and Raton Mesa regions. The low level jet Saturday evening would favor maintenance of storms farther south across the TX/OK panhandle but expect some convection to maintain as it moves across the plains into the evening and overnight hours.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Sunday looks similarly wet as we are still under a favorable southwesterly trajectory for monsoon moisture and embedded disturbances moving up the west side of the upper ridge. Will likely need another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar as probabilities of flash flood producing rain amounts are above 50% for 0.25 in the NBM blends and we are still under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Southeasterly low level flow also looks stronger on Sunday in some high res CAMs models which also raises concerns for focused thunderstorm development across the southeast mountains. Deep layer of 35 kts and CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg across the southeast mountains adjacent plains also suggests some higher probs of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

Upper high to the south expands westward putting southern CO under more westerly flow aloft for Monday and increasingly northwesterly flow through mid to late week. Monday will be a transition day as precipitable start to decrease but are still above normal. Heavy rainfall will still be possible, though perhaps shunted to the southern portions of our area. Temperatures begin to rebound a couple degrees. Tuesday looks drier for most of the area with temperatures returning into the 90s across the plains. A shortwave trough drops through the central plains with variable timing according to long range models but sends another cold front into the southeast plains. This cools temperatures down a couple degrees out east and brings an uptick in thunderstorm chances to the southeast mountains and plains. Otherwise, northwest flow continues through mid to late week as the upper high gradually builds and shifts over western CO/UT towards next Friday. This suggests another warm up with recycled monsoon moisture eventually returning over the mountains. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light rain showers may impact the TAF sites right at the start of this TAF period, but are expected to dissipate early, with dry conditions for the rest of tonight and through tomorrow morning. Another round of storms is expected to develop along the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and push eastward. If one of these storms were to impact either TAF site, heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and lightning would be the primary hazards. Beyond all of that, mid to high level clouds will persist through much of this TAF period, with winds remaining relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, outside of any thunderstorms.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period. Along with that, dry conditions are expected to prevail, though a rouge shower or storm impacting the TAF site can not be ruled out tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is very low (less than 10) in this however, so have left out any precipitation from this TAF forecast. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist through this TAF period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ079-080-086.