textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Burn scar flash flooding and marginally severe storms possible this evening.

- Daily afternoon showers and storms will continue into early next week, along with slowly warming temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently...

A few showers have already formed over the higher terrain as of 1pm. Latest mesoanalysis shows 2000+ J/kg of surface-based CAPE along and east of the mountains, though there is a bit of a cap in place that may keep things from intensifying for a few more hours. Meanwhile, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear is in place, though with the best conditions just slightly north of our area.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Storms will continue forming over and near the mountains this afternoon, before spreading southeast and intensifying into tonight. Main concern will initially be flash flooding, particularly over the Aspen Acres burn scar, due to heavy rain. As storms move east, they will enter more unstable air and intensify, becoming strong to severe. Outflow winds to 60 mph and hail to 1.5 inches will be possible, along with heavy rain and flash flooding for urban and low- lying areas. Storms will continue for a few hours after sunset, though most of the CAMs have the last of the activity dissipating by around midnight. That could push a bit longer if we get any stronger outflow interactions, but at this time the chance isn't very high.

Thursday...

Upper ridge will continue building in over the region on Thursday. The plains will be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-90s, while the valleys remain in the 80s. Less available moisture and a lack of large-scale forcing will keep afternoon convection tied to the mountains, with mostly scattered POPs aside from the San Juans and southern Sangres, which show better potential for some localized upsloping. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times, so we will have to continue monitoring the burn scars for flash flooding potential.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The pattern for the long-term forecast remains consistent with previous model runs. The upper ridge will continue dominating the region, with the center of the high slowly shifting east through the weekend. Temperatures will remain warm, with some areas over the eastern plains creeping back into triple digits. Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue each day as moisture moves around the upper high. Most convection will be over the mountains, but the eastern plains will see isolated to scattered storms each day as well.

Flash flooding will still be a concern over the burn scars, as even a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall can cause major impacts in these areas.

As of now, this pattern looks to persist into early next week, though model solutions begin to diverge quickly after about Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the forecast area through 02z-03z, affecting main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Variable gusty outflow winds up to 30-35 kts possible with any storms in the vcnty. After 03z, and def by 05z, VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area through the remainder of the period. SE surface flow reestablishing around 18z tomorrow for all three sites, with VCTS mentioned for KALS after 22z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086.