textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Repeat Critical Fire Weather days expected, focused on portions of the SE Mts and I-25 corridor Mon, then across all of the plains on Tuesday. Another round possible Wed across the plains.

- Damaging winds possible Tuesday across a large portion of southern CO where High Wind Watches have been expanded.

- Strong wind driven heavy snow expected for the mountains, especially Continental Divide, Monday Night through Wednesday with snow squalls possible.

- Unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures expected for late week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Southwest flow aloft increases tonight and Monday as the next trough approaches the west coast and pushes onshore during the day Monday. Dry weather will continue through much of the short term with warm and breezy conditions overspreading much of the region on Monday. Conditions meet critical fire weather conditions along the I-25 corridor, Pikes Peak region and the lower elevations of Fremont county from late Monday morning through Monday evening and have upgraded Fire Weather Watches to Red Flag Warnings and added Teller County where humidity values have come down in recent runs. Winds will gust up to 40 mph across the mountains with bands of 25-35 mph winds shooting through the gaps and passes into the adjacent lower elevations along the I-25 corridor during the afternoon. Wind prone areas such as the Arkansas River Valley through southern Ft Carson, Northern El Paso County, and the wind prone areas south of Colorado City to Raton Pass will be most affected. It is possible that the larger metro areas (Colorado Springs and Pueblo) may come up just shy of the needed 3 hour duration of 25 mph or higher gusts for Red flag. But other locations in those counties should make criteria and will not get too cute with highlights given the stronger winds and potential for higher fire danger impacts arriving Tuesday. Monday will be a warm up day for fire weather.

Otherwise it will be a mild night across the area tonight with extensive high cloudiness spreading in and increasing downslope drainage winds in and near the mountains. This should keep temperatures in the lower 40s in the banana belt regions along the lower eastern slopes with generally 30s elsewhere, and a few upper teens for some of our cooler valley locations. Monday will be warm with some record to near record high temperatures possible. Current records for 2/16 are...COS: 68 degrees set in 2017 and 1970, PUB: 73 degrees set in 2017 and 1970, ALS: 57 degrees set in 2020, 2000, 1958 and 1947.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

High impact high winds and high fire danger expected for Tuesday with wind driven mountain snows persisting along the Continental Divide through Wednesday. A strong shortwave will eject across the Desert Southwest and across CO Tuesday morning. Southwest flow will spread snow into the Continental Divide as early as Monday night with the heaviest wind driven snow expected late Monday night through Tuesday morning as the mid level front drives through. Snow squall parameters are high this day, with wind gusts in the 70 to 80 mph range across the higher elevations causing extensive wind driven snow across the peaks and passes. The heavier snow does look brief, which could limit accumulations some, but given the impacts from the winds and blowing snow, opted for Winter Storm Warnings across the eastern San Juans and the eastern Sawatch range due to the potential for treacherous travel conditions. Blanketed the remainder of the mountains out west under Advisories. Snow accumulations will be lighter, but winds and blowing snow could still lean impacts towards the higher end of the spectrum. Will need to monitor this time period for Snow Squall Warnings as snow spreads into the advisory areas, and into the Sangre De Cristo mountains briefly Tuesday morning.

As the associated upper jet ejects across southern CO on Tuesday, this will morph into a damaging wind/high fire danger day across the plains. NBM probabilities of over 75 mph wind gusts across the mountains, and in excess of 60 mph gusts across the plains are still in the 70-90 percent range along and south of highway 50, though will need to watch Teller county and the interior portions of Chaffee county for near high wind criteria as well. This is a high confidence forecast and have expanded high wind highlights some, and bumped timing back into the morning hours as the system appears a little faster. This will be more of a brute force mixing high wind event for southern CO, and showers that cross the San Luis Valley may aid in transporting strong winds aloft to the surface. Signal for high winds has remained strong (over 70%) across the San Luis Valley, the Wet Mountain Valley and portions of the upper Arkansas River valley, so have expanded high wind watches to include those areas. Will need to monitor El Paso county closely but with lower odds up that way and the upper jet centered across NM and southern CO, think they may come up just short of high wind criteria for now. Meanwhile, humidity values have nudged up a bit with cooling aloft occuring during the mid morning and afternoon. Have to get down below the lowest 10th percentile of NBM members (outliers of the 130 or so ensemble model members) to start seeing extremely low humidity values in the 9% range. So confidence in a PDS Red Flag Warning is not high at this point, and will leave current Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday as is. Regardless, with winds as strong as they will be, it will still be a volatile day for fire weather and great care should be taken to avoid wildfire starts.

We see a slight reprieve in snowfall rates out west Tuesday night but it picks up again Wednesday as another wave ejects across southern Colorado. This may keep impacts on the high side of the spectrum given continued blowing snow through the period, and will maintain Winter Storm Warnings into Wednesday evening along the Continental Divide, with Winter Weather Advisories adjacent to these areas. Another repeat critical fire weather day looks likely for the southeast plains Wed, and winds could come close to high wind criteria once again, especially south of highway 50 where NBM probabilities show 30-40 percent range of 58 mph or higher wind gusts along the southern I-25 corridor and San Luis Valley. Suspect later shifts will be hoisting another Fire Weather Watch for much of the plains on Wednesday, with confidence a little lower on the need for more High Wind Watches.

The pattern remains active late week into the weekend as the mean troughing out west translates eastward and across the Rockies on Friday. This will keep snow showers going at times for the mountains, and continued windy albeit cooler conditions for the plains. There could be another smaller critical fire weather potential for the southern plains hugging the NM/OK borders for Thursday. Elsewhere humidity values look a little too high given the cooler temperatures. As the upper trough finally swings through on Friday the plains may see some scattered showers and spotty wetting precipitation amounts. Another fast moving wave pushes through on Saturday producing more showers across the region. Then drier, warmer and less wind can arrives for Sunday as the next ridge moves in from the west. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 958 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

KALS: Winds mainly keep a south component through the period, with wind speeds around 10-12 knots and increasing mid-level clouds.

KCOS: More variable surface winds tonight, with stronger westerlies aloft, though the strongest flow should remain above 5 kft. Gusty winds to around 20-25 knots are expected during the afternoon hours.

KPUB: Winds should weaken overnight before brisk south-southwest winds pick up in the afternoon. Gusts shouldn't be as frequent as at KCOS, but a few gusts to 20 knots are still possible, though low confidence kept them from this round of TAFs.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 11 PM MST Wednesday for COZ058-059-061-066-067. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM Monday to 11 PM MST Wednesday for COZ060-068. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for COZ069>071-077-083-086>089-093>099. High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for COZ072>075-078>080. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for COZ221-222- 226>230. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ226>237.