textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening, a few possibly strong across far eastern plains.

- Cooler tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms, with best coverage of storms along mtns/plains interface and along CO/NM border.

- Warmer and breezy on Saturday, with the afternoon showers and storms.

- Breezy to windy Sunday and Monday with Critical Fire Weather Conditions likely across portions of south central and southeast Colorado.

- Cooler and unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate westerly flow aloft across the region, with an embedded short wave translating through the stronger flow across the Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating some increase in mid and upper level moisture across the region, though low level moisture remains lacking with current dew pts in the teens and 20s over and near the higher terrain, and into the 20s and 30s across the far southeast plains at this time. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s to low 80s this afternoon across the plains, with 50 and 60s across the higher terrain, with regional radars indicating scattered high based showers over and near the higher terrain, with one thunderstorm pushing east just north of the Palmer Dvd at this time.

This afternoon into Tonight...SPC meso analysis indicating only modest instability up to 500 j/kg across the higher terrain this afternoon, with latest HREF data supporting mean cape of up to 500 j/kg across the far southeast plains through the evening, with models supporting only weak of shear less than 25 kts across the region. With that said, we expect generally high based showers and a few embedded thunderstorms tonight, producing virga and gusty out flow winds up to 45 mph, and only spotty pockets of light measurable precipitation. Latest HREF and higher res data keeps the best coverage across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa through the evening. A few storms remain possible across the far southeast plains as well, where enough instability could produce stronger winds to near 60 mph and small hail.

Tonight and Friday...Expecting clearing skies through the late evening and into the overnight hours, save for increasing clouds and stratus filling in from east to west across the plains behind a passing cold front late tonight into early Friday morning. There could be a few showers and or light drizzle associated with the passing front and lowering cloud deck into the morning hours. Latest model data does indicate slowly increasing southwest flow aloft through the day on Friday, with waa and persisting low level clouds through the late morning keeping the plains stable. Increasing instability will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain Friday afternoon, where HREF has modest cape of 400-900 j/kg and weak shear of 15-25kts. Further east, best chances of storms to remain along and south of the Raton Mesa where could see a few stronger storms into the late evening. The main storm threats on Friday remain gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, along with brief pockets of moderate rain. As for temperatures on Friday, we did go closer to the low side of guidance across the plains, with the expected cloud and easterly upslope, leading to cool temperatures mainly into the low 60s, with highs in the 50s and 60s further west across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Latest models continue to support increasing southwest flow through the day, as short wave energy ejecting off the main West Coast low translates across the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies. Increasing moisture and uvv within the southerly flow and a possible dryline setting up across the plains, will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening with the best coverage over the higher terrain, with a few stronger storms possible across the plains, depending on location of dry line and how much instability can be generated. Temperatures warm back into the 70s to low 80s across the plains on Saturday, with mainly 50s and 60s expected once again across the higher terrain.

Models continue to indicate moderate to strong southwest flow across the region Sunday and Monday as the West Coast upper system slowly translates into the Great Basin. This will bring warm and breezy to windy conditions across the region, with the potential for higher end critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, depending on how much precipitation actually falls Friday and Saturday. Increasing available within the flow on Monday will bring increasing precipitation chances along and west of the Continental Divide.

Cooler and more unsettled weather remains in store for Tuesday into Wednesday, as said Great Basin system lifts out across the Rockies. How this system moves across the region remains in question, with run to run differences leading to uncertainty in the amounts and type of precipitation, especially across the eastern plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

KALS: Gusty southwest winds 20-25 knots will pick up this afternoon lasting into the evening before lighter winds move in tonight. Mid level clouds will move in and out periodically throughout this forecast period.

KCOS: Low chance for some passing showers this afternoon into evening, moving from the higher terrain to the west. If showers pass near the terminal, outflow winds to 30 knots will be possible. Given the generally low chance at this time, have included as PROB30. Surface conditions are generally dry, so if showers do form coverage will be spotty. After 03Z or so, all potential showers should leave the area. A front will pass overnight, turning winds north and then southeasterly by morning. The resulting upslope may result in a few hours of lower clouds nearing MVFR.

KPUB: Southwest winds this afternoon will become more northeast overnight as a front approaches. With the front passing between 03Z- 06Z or so, winds behind it will turn more easterly Friday morning. This may result in a few hours of lower clouds, but at this time conditions are expected to remain VFR.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.