textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- One or two storms should push onto the plains this evening.

- A few strong storms possible over the plains tomorrow afternoon.

- A drying trend with above normal temperatures for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Currently, and into this evening....

Scattered storms will continue to slowly intensify as they push southeast over the region. Based on latest guidance, a few storms will push onto the plains later today, and with dewpts in the 50s farther east, one or two of these storms will persist and could be on the stronger side, especially over the northeast sections of the southeast Colorado plains. Per SPC meso page, deep shear is pretty much non-exisitant, but there is some CAPE out on the plains given the 50s dwpts.

Storms over the higher terrain will primarily be a ltg threat.

Tonight...

One or two storms may be over the far eastern plains late this evening, but anticipate all storms should be finished prior to midnight. Min temps towards sunrise should be in the U50s/L60s plains with 40s mainly in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night...

Scattered storms will be over the region by later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Shear will continue to be weak (20 knts deep shear) but will be a bit stronger than today, while CAPE values will be in the 750-1500 range over the plains, especially far eastern plains. This will allow for a few stronger high based storms tomorrow that will be capable of some marginal svr hail and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, expect another warm day similar to today, with temps maybe a degree or two warmer. For tomorrow evening, storms will likely be finished over the plains prior to midnight. \/Hodanish

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For Friday...generally weak westerly flow continues across the Rockies, with another wave translating across the Northern Tier supporting isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection. Again, sounding profiles support higher based storms, save for the far eastern plains, where enough low level moisture and just enough shear may be in place to support stronger storms late Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Friday to be similar to previous days with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, into the 70s to low 80s for the high valleys and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Tuesday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build back across the Rockies for the weekend. Operational and ensemble model data support much drier air moving across the region within generally weak southwest flow aloft across the region. This will lead to decreasing chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend, with any storms that can develop being higher based. Temperatures into early next week to remain above seasonal norms with highs the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Models then continue to differ on the location and amplitude of an upper trough trying to break down the ridge into the middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation chances. NBM data does support a slow decrease in temperatures and a slight uptick in convection for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain this afternoon by 18z and persist through approx. 02z, potentially affecting KALS and KCOS. Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

KCOS: PROB30 maintained for -SHRA and variable gusts to around 30 kts from 21z-01z. Increasing mid and high level cloudiness through 06z tonight, then clearing.

KPUB: TEMPO from 23z-03z to try and capture expected outflow from mt convection, with predominant NW direction expected. Otherwise, increasing mid and high level cloudiness through 06z tonight, then clearing.

KALS: PROB30 maintained for -TSRA and variable gusts to around 30 kts from 21z-02z. Increasing mid and high level cloudiness through 06z tonight, then clearing. Moore

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.