textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms expected today across the area. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Best coverage over the Continental Divide.

- Drier and a bit warmer this weekend.

- Unsettled pattern returns next week, with widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Another wet and seasonably cool day today. Brisk southwest flow remains in place aloft, with a shortwave passing overhead this afternoon. There will be plenty of moisture in the region, and coupled with some enhanced instability and forcing, showers and thunderstorms will be possible through most of the day and into this evening. Best coverage will be over our western mountains, as the best moisture transport will be into the Continental Divide. However, some showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to move onto the plains as well later in the day, though they will be much more isolated in nature. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be our primary impact concern, particularly over the burn scars, as well as any areas that are saturated from the previous few days of rain. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, if a few degrees warmer in places. Highs will be in the 60s to low-70s over the high valleys, and in the mid-70s over most of the eastern plains.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

An upper ridge will build in across the region on Saturday, giving us drier and warmer conditions as weaker westerly flow sets in aloft. Temperatures will increase to slightly above average, with highs over the plains reaching the low-mid 80s. These conditions will repeat on Sunday, with the entire region staying dry until Sunday evening at the earliest.

Late Sunday and into next week, an upper trough will move onto the west coast, bringing plenty of tropical moisture with it from the southwest. Widespread showers will move into the Continental Divide by early Monday morning, spreading to the rest of the CWA by the middle of the week. The main forecast challenge will be the timing and extent of the precipitation coverage, influenced by the movement of the incoming trough. In short, models have expressed a lot of variability on how much moisture we get, and how long it sticks around. The initial wave is still expected to come on Monday, but deterministic guidance has alternated between relatively wet and dry solutions. The wettest version of the forecast shows the upper low moving into our region by Wednesday, picking up moisture from the incoming remnants of hurricane Polo and moving along the southern Colorado border. This would bring ample moisture and widespread precipitation to our area, pretty consistently for most of next week. Latest model runs have started picking up on this, though the speed and evolution of the upper flow pattern is still lacking in some consistency. For now, stuck close to NBM POPs for next week. In general, we will see an uptick in precipitation coverage between Monday and Tuesday, with higher POPs spreading from west to east, with less certainty on Wednesday and onwards.

Something worthy of note: If the 'wet' solution amongst the long- term guidance verifies, there are hints at a strong closed low, fueled with remnant tropical cyclone moisture, spinning along the southern Colorado border through the back half of next week. This would bring a LOT of precipitation to our area, and sustained over several days at that. The lower elevations would receive a lot of rain, with snow over the peaks of our higher mountains. This could lead to notable impacts, so models will have to be tracked as we get closer to date, to see what kinds of potential impacts we could be dealing with.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Patch fog, some locally dense, will be possible for the first couple of hours at the 3 taf sites. Otherwise expect VFR through at least the early morning hours of Saturday. There will be a low chance of additional fog at the end of this fcst period at the 3 taf sites.

Passing -tsra will be possible during the 22-02 UTC time frame.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.