textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture gradually increases across CO with another day of limited high based thunderstorms for the plains on Saturday but better chances for wetting rains over the weekend across the mountains and Continental Divide.

- Best chance for heavy rainfall across the plains will be Monday with an elevated risk for Flash Flooding of burn scars as a system moves across.

- Drier weather returns for mid week before another influx of monsoon moisture returns to the mountains into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Southwest flow over the area will bring a sight uptick in monsoon moisture to southern CO through tonight. The mountains will see an increase in precipitable waters with up to 150% of normal along the Continental Divide by this evening. As a weak impulse ride through the western periphery of the upper high centered to our south, this should trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the mountains with the heaviest rainfall potential along the Continental Divide. Willow burn scar as well as Chalk Cliffs and Poncha Pass will need to be monitored closely for a Flash Flood potential. East of the Continental Divide, moisture is still rather high based with gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, lightning, and spotty light to moderate rainfall possible with the stronger storms. Another focus area for thunderstorms will be along the surface trough axis across the far southeast plains. But with limited CAPE and shear, the risk for severe storms will be low. Activity will diminish through the evening as it shifts eastward into KS through the evening. Meanwhile, an active monsoon plume out west will keep some isolated to scattered showers going into the overnight period across the mountains and interior valleys. With an increase in cloud cover, stuck close to model blends for temperatures through the period. Looks like we will be close but perhaps just shy of our record highs for Aug 29th which are:

KALS 87 set in 2019, 2013, and 1990 KCOS 95 set in 2019 KPUB 102 set in 1970

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms coverage continues to increase each day through Monday as the active monsoon plume remains over the CO and a well defined disturbance moves through southwest flow Monday afternoon and night. Thunderstorms on Sunday still look high based across the southeast plains but some gradual moistening does bring CAPE up a bit with values approaching 1000 J/kg across southern areas. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern and burn scar flash flooding will be possible should a stronger storm impact those area. Highest precipitable waters still reside out west with up to 150% of normal along the Continental Divide. With westerly downslope flow across the southeast mountains/adjacent plains, confidence is low that Aspen Acres will be impacted. But at the same time, the risk will not be zero either. Willow burn scar and Chalk Cliffs stand a better chance conceptually for seeing excessive rainfall/flash flooding. Otherwise, temperatures cool off slightly as clouds increase. Monday still looks like the wettest day of the period, though timing of the shortwave Monday night is not well juxtaposed with peak heating, which could reduce the risk of flash flooding. Will need to monitor the timing/position of a cold front as it drops through the southeast plains Monday/Monday night. If the front moves in during the day on Monday, east to southeast upslope flow may provide a better focus and sufficient confidence in flash flooding for the Aspen Acres burn scar to warrant a Flash Flood Watch. However, not all models agree with this timing and details will need to be refined as we get closer.

Tuesday looks drier behind the shortwave, though there is still sufficient moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Then moisture gradually increases again as southwest flow picks up some Pacific moisture and spreads it across southern CO through late week. Best precipitation chances appear focused across the mountains (mainly Continental Divide) where better moisture fetch will be in place. East of the mountains, moisture looks high based again, though at least some isolated thunderstorms should return to the forecast for most areas by Saturday. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft aiding in increased monsoonal moisture advection, which in turn will produce enhanced mid and high level cloudiness across the forecast area through the TAF period.

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Did include PROB30 wording for variable gusts to 35 kt and -TSRA at all three terminal sites starting around 20z and lasting through 01z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.