textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday through Friday with a heavy rainfall/flash flood risk for the mountains, especially the eastern San Juans.

- Moisture plume shifts eastward slightly late Friday into Saturday, bringing a better chance for showers/storms to the eastern mountains/I-25 corridor and southeast plains.

- Potentially drier Sunday/Monday, though model solutions for this period have bounced between dry/wet the past few runs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Currently, cold front has moved through all the southeast plains, with gusty north winds turning se and diminishing over all but the far east as of 1 pm. Starting to see low clouds over the eastern plains breaking up early this afternoon, though stream of mid/upper level cloud cover over much of the area will continue to keep temps cool through the remainder of the day. Precip so far has been rather sparse, with just a few weak -tsra developing over the mountains as of 130 pm, while a few storms over northern NM were moving northeast toward the srn Sangres. CAMs suggest best coverage of storms through the afternoon into the evening will be over the Sangres, with a few storms back along the Continental Divide as well. A few weakening showers/storms could drift into the I-25 corridor this evening, though precip amounts away from the mountains look light. Area of storms over nern NM later tonight may then push northward into the far southeast plains after midnight, while at least isolated activity percolates along the Continental Divide for much of the night. Not much of strong/severe threat with any storms this afternoon/tonight, though some brief heavy rainfall may occur, especially over the ern San Juans where moisture continues to deepen.

On Wednesday, upper ridge builds slightly, with mid level flow becoming more sly through the day. This will lead to warmer temperatures and a substantial upturn in shower/thunderstorm chances across srn CO, as deeper moisture over AZ/NM is brought northward into the region. Areas along the Continental Divide look most favored for heavy rainfall, especially the eastern San Juan Mountains, where a flash flood watch is in effect. Storm coverage decreases slightly farther east, though still expect at least scattered storms along I-25 and across the plains, as weak surface trough roughly from Trinidad to Eads may enhance storms away from the higher terrain. CAMs occasionally show a couple of stronger storms near the Aspen Acres Burn Scar Wed afternoon, though still not enough confidence in storm location/intensity for a flash flood watch here. Max temps will climb 5-10 degf over the plains, while readings over the mountains only nudge up a degree or two.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Moisture plume continues overhead Wednesday night, with rain chances continuing well into the night over much of the area. Forcing for heavy rain continues look strongest over the eastern San Juans, where flash flood watch will continue. Thursday looks like a repeat of Wednesday, as sly mid-level flow brings both moisture and weak s/w energy northward into the area. Flash flood watch will continue for the ern San Juans, where models suggest storm totals of over 2 inches by Thu evening. Won't issue any further flash flood watches at this point, but will have to closely monitor both the Willow/Aspen Acres scars for heavy rainfall.

Pacific NW upper trough then moves eastward through the nrn Rockies Fri/Sat, potentially dragging the main mid-level moisture plume slightly eastward into the eastern mountains and plains by Sat afternoon. Still expect another day of widespread showers/storms on Fri, then perhaps a better focus for storms over the eastern mountains and plains on Sat, with moist plume overhead and weak cold front in the vicinity by Sat evening. Forecast gets less clear Sun/Mon, as older NBM keeps convective threat going both days, while latest 12z deterministic models (GFS/ECMWF) both show increasing wly flow and fairly strong drying over the region both days. Forecast currently reflects the wetter NBM, but potential is growing that we may at least see a decrease in precip chances as we get into early next week. Temps Thu/Fri/Sat look mainly seasonal (70s/80s) then slightly cooler Sun/Mon as upper trough and cold front swing through.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Moist southwest flow will continue across the region through the upcoming taf period, keeping the best chances of precipitation over and near the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd. COS and PUB will continue to light east to southeast upslope winds into the morning, with the potential of seeing MFVR cigs sct-bkn020-030 into early Wednesday morning. Latest data indicates the plains to remain too stable for widespread shra/tsra through the afternoon, and expect mainly VFR cigs with weak upslope at COS and PUB. Did bring a prob30 -tsra at PUB and VCSH at COS aft 23Z with the potential for mtn convection to spread east.

Kept prob30 group at ALS through 10Z with the potential for ongoing showers and storms across the southwest mtns spreading across the San Luis Valley. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions through the morning, with another round of showers and storms bringing chances of MVFR conditions aft 20Z, which could continue through the end of this taf period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ067-068.