textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger continues through the rest of today, and is likely to return early next week.

- Snow begins late tonight over the central mountains, spreading through the rest of the high country and into the I-25 corridor early tomorrow morning. Travel impacts are possible for both the morning and evening commutes tomorrow over the Palmer Divide!

- We warm and dry back out through the weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 724 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Winds have subsided and although humidity values are still low, a slow recovery is expected overnight as the upper low out west continues to take shape and shift eastward. Starting to see signs of a WAA precipitation band developing along the mid level front which will continue to advance eastward tonight. Quick update made to grids and package to allow Red Flag Warning to expire and to adjust pops a bit later tonight.

Full package re-work underway with continued favorable trends for snow in and near the southeast mountains upon initial inspection. May need to expand some advisories down the slopes a bit across the upper Arkansas river valley and Wet mountain valley depending on how 00z runs shape up. Still looks like heaviest amounts are favoring Wet mountains this time, but will see how this shapes up as data filters in. -KT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1211 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently..

Our incoming low continues to take shape over the Great Basin, increasing southwest flow over our region. As of Noon, southerly and southwesterly winds have developed along much of our mountain adjacent plains, with temperatures already warming well into the 50s and 60s. Humidity values have already dropped into the teens and low 20% range for many locations, with Trinidad already sitting at 10%.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Near record daytime highs remain possible today as southwest flow increases, with Alamosa still set to tie their standing record at 62F, and both Colorado Springs and Pueblo expected to come within a few degrees of their standing records as well. Critical fire weather conditions have already been met for many locations, and are expected to persist through sunset across all warned areas from the San Luis Valley through the eastern mountains, and across the entire plains. Minimum humidity values look to drop into the single digits with max winds gusts reaching into the 50 mph range over the San Luis Valley, southeast mountains, and southern plains. Once the sun sets and temperatures begin to cool, humidity values are expected to increase sufficiently to end fire weather concerns.

Models bring a cold front across our plains around midnight, spreading northerly winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for showery precipitation across the norther I-25 corridor late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Moist southwest flow aloft looks to be sufficient enough to spread snow showers across the high country through the overnight hours as well, though snowfall rates look to be fairly light tonight, and mainly concentrated over the central mountains and the San Juans. A Winter Weather Advisory for the central mountains goes into effect at 9 AM tonight, where 5 to 8 inches of wind driven snow is expected through Friday night.

Friday..

The NAM closes the incoming low off briefly as it nears the Colorado border early tomorrow morning, but model consensus seems to keep the wave open or at least open back up through tomorrow afternoon as it passes overhead. There is still quite a bit of instability associated with this system, and short term models continue to show heavier banding possible over our eastern mountains, the Pikes Peak region, and possibly Fremont County as well. Snowfall rates increase across the area as we near sunrise tomorrow morning, which may lead to travel concerns for some areas. Highs climb into the 40s and low 50s for much of the plains through the afternoon though, which will lead to periods of rain and mixed precipitation, with any snow likely melting right away for areas east of I-25. The Palmer Divide and that stretch of I-25 may be particularly hazardous tomorrow given expected gusty winds over that area. Temperatures are expected to be cool enough to support snowfall by sunrise, which will also lead to slick road conditions across the area. Northern El Paso County, The Sangres, The Wets, and the higher elevations of northern Fremont County have all been added to tomorrow's Winter Weather Advisory, valid from 6 AM through midnight Friday night. Snowfall totals in the mountains are expected to range from 5 to 8 inches, with totals closer to 3 to 5 inches for northern El Paso, Teller, and northern Fremont County. If convective trends continue, snowfall totals may need to increase over the lower elevations of Fremont County, and possibly over the Wet Mountain Valley as well. Both of these areas may need to be added to highlights as short term model guidance continues to hone in on the event. Models push the trough axis east of us by around sunset tomorrow evening, with precip chances gradually coming to an end through midnight or so. Tomorrow's overnight lows look to be much cooler than we have been, but very close to normal for this time of year, with most of our plains cooling down into the 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Saturday..

We remain cooler than we have been, but still very seasonally normal for this time of year, for our Saturday, with highs in the 40s and 50s for most locations. A few flurries will remain possible for the Sangres and the central mountains, especially in the morning, but any new snow amounts are expected to be minimal. Winds will be light. Skies will be mostly clear. Humidity values look to only drop into the 20% or higher range. Overall, Saturday looks to be a beautiful March day!

Sunday Onwards..

Temperatures rebound, bringing another round of warmer than normal temperatures, especially on Monday and Tuesday. Humidity values will drop below 15 percent during the afternoons but flow aloft remains fairly light for Sunday before increasing again on Monday as the northern stream jet sags southward. The cut off low which retrogrades off the northern coast of the Baja Peninsula will eventually kick eastward early next week, but latest iterations keep the storm track well to our south for much affect. The northern stream flow buckles a bit by Tuesday into Wednesday but looks less amplified with the upper trough as it treks across the northern Rockies and into the plains. Overall the forecast has trended warmer and drier towards the middle of next week, though it still looks like we will see another cold front drop through the plains at some point. Critical fire weather conditions may return for Tuesday and again on Thursday depending on fuels status, though any mitigating impacts from the Thurs Night-Fri snowfall may be fleeting given the significant precipitation deficits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1027 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

At KALS, VFR overnight into early Fri morning, then occasional MVFR/brief IFR conditions through the day Fri as waves of snow showers move through the San Luis Valley. Best chance of IFR conditions and heavier precip look to be in the 21z-03z time period. Slow improvement after 03z Fri evening as showers taper off and cigs begin to lift.

At KCOS/KPUB, VFR overnight, with a cold front bringing gusty north winds of 20-30 kts after 06z-08z. VCSH starting around 14z as precip develops, with periods of MVFR/IFR through much of the day as rain/snow showers move through the region. Greatest chance for IFR conditions and heavier precip will be roughly 19z-01z, with slowly improving conditions after 03z as showers taper off and cigs slowly rise. Strong north winds will persist through much of the day into the evening, with the highest gusts (30kts) at KCOS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Friday night for COZ058-060. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Friday to midnight MST Friday night for COZ059-061>063. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Friday night for COZ068. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to midnight MST Friday night for COZ072>082-084.