textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture slowly increases starting Friday and heading into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 117 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Conditions will be largely dry and hot the rest of today. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above average over most of the plains, with a few isolated showers/storms late this afternoon into early evening. If storms do manage to form, largely just looking at outflow winds and possibly some lightning, given how dry things are near the surface. Warm and mild overnight tonight with modest west-southwest winds.

For Friday, an upper low will move into the Pacific Northwest, compressing the ridge overhead and allowing for some monsoon moisture to make it back into our area. Looking at the placement of the best mid-level moisture transport, the best ingredients for convection will be over the southern half of our CWA, particularly the Raton Mesa and our SE mountains. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over most areas in the afternoon, though the plains will stay mostly dry north of Highway 50. Temperatures will be similar to today, with high-90s over the plains and 80s for the valleys.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 117 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Southwest flow aloft will allow for some better mid-level moisture as we head into the weekend. A combination of the monsoon plume and transported moisture from Hurricane Marie will allow for largely scattered showers/thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Best chances for more widespread convection will be over the southern Sangres, and possible the Raton Mesa as well. Will have to keep an eye on flash flooding potential over Aspen Acres, though coverage up that way should be more isolated. Meanwhile, the plains will remain largely dry north of the Highway 50 corridor.

Moisture across the region increases Sunday-Monday as the upper high shifts and more shortwave energy starts to move over the Rockies. Thunderstorm coverage will increase both days, especially over the Continental Divide. This will also increase our flash flooding chances over the burn scars. Temperatures will remain above average, if a few degrees cooler thanks to increased cloud cover.

Model solutions diverge as we move towards the middle of next week. General patterns show an upper low digging down from the Pacific NW and into CA, slowly kicking the upper high towards the east. Speed and evolution of this pattern vary between models, though the general trend so far leans us in a wetter and slightly cooler direction.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Low chance (10-20 percent) of a brief tsra and gusty outflow winds at/near all terminals 21z until 02z on Fri, but haven't included anything in the taf yet. Winds will become light drainage overnight, before swinging back around to the se at KPUB and KCOS, sw at KALS, after 18z Fri, with a few gusts over 20 kts. Winds diminish after 02z Fri evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.