textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front will bring snow to the central mountains, Pikes Peak Region and portion of the southeast mountains today along with cooler temperatures and higher humidity.

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions return for the southern portions of the southeast plains and the San Luis Valley today. - Subfreezing temperatures expected across the lower elevations tonight and again Saturday night through Sunday morning which could damage tender plants and vulnerable irrigation systems.

- Dry and mild weather returns for the weekend with warmer conditons and critical fire weather conditions likely by mid week.

- Another storm system could bring precipitation to southern CO late week though lots of uncertainty on the details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Cold front evident in area radars and surface obs will be nearing the Palmer Divide by 2 AM. Gusts to the north of the front are in the 30 to 40 kt range with a few sporadic stronger gusts. Meanwhile, strong westerly winds continue along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains with 50-60 mph gusts spreading into Westcliffe area and across the higher mountains as of midnight.

The cold front will make an initial surge through the southeast plains early this morning and position along or just north of our southern plains border by 15z. Relative humidity to the north of the front rebounds as cooler air spreads in curtailing fire weather conditions in spite of breezy north winds which shift around from the east in the afternoon. However along the southern border, there will be a period of critical fire weather conditions from mid morning through early afternoon. Successive HRRR runs have been decreasing the critical fire weather coverage across Baca county with a stronger and earlier arrival of the cold front. However increasing westerly winds across the San Luis Valley and the western and southern portions of Las Animas County will keep critical fire weather conditions in play today. Maintained current Red Flag Warnings for Baca and Las Animas, though bumped up timing to 14z as poor humidity recoveries overnight and increasing winds this morning should yield an earlier start to critical conditions. Also added the San Luis Valley where drier air works in during the afternoon behind the upper trough axis and winds will be quite strong. Gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in both areas.

Snow breaks out across the central mountains towards dawn as the upper trough approaches, and spreads eastward across the Pikes Peak region, northern portions of the SE mountains during the afternoon. A period of instability and lift will result in a 3 to 6 hour window for some moderate to briefly heavy snow with embedded thunder possible across the Pikes Peak region. This results in a quick 2 to 4 inches of snow with some locally higher amounts possible. Ground warmth should limit impacts for the Palmer Divide as road conditions could become slushy at times during the heavier snow. Higher elevations of Teller county could see slick roads and travel impacts this afternoon as road temps are more likely to support accumulations at times. The Sawatch and Mosquito ranges will see similar impacts with slick and snow covered roads at times across northern areas. Overall snowfall amounts stay below winter weather advisory criteria. NBM probabilities of more than 6 inches of snow stays below 20 percent across Teller county and the crest of the Palmer Divide, while probabilities of over 3 inches range from 30 to 65 percent across the same areas. Activity shifts southward through mid to late afternoon and decreases for most areas by mid evening as the upper trough axis ejects into the central and northern high plains. Some residual snow showers may continue across the central mountains given northwest flow, but moisture looks pretty limited and coverage will be scattered at best. Higher areas of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges could see 2 to 4 inches as well for event totals.

A second surge behind the front this afternoon will bring north winds gusting up to 50 mph across portions of the plains but little in the way of precipitation east of the I-25 corridor. Surface pressure gradient is suspiciously tight, implying the potential for high wind criteria (58 mph or greater). But high res models keep gusts below this threshold and HREF probabilities of exceedance are Nil. Have boosted winds towards the higher side of the envelope of probabilities but kept them below high wind criteria.

With clearing skies and decreasing winds tonight, the main concern will shift towards the cold. There is a high probability of sub-freezing temperatures (75-100%) across all of the plains. Lows will drop into the teens across the Palmer Divide to 20s across the remainder of the lower elevations. Given the early start to the growing season, the current Freeze Warning looks in good shape. Did bump up timing slightly since high res models are showing sub-freezing temperatures setting in as early as 10 PM across the Palmer Divide. Otherwise, expect clearing skies and a cold night with some brisk winds across the higher elevations continuing on the back side of the departing system. -KT

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Mild temperatures return for Saturday with high temperatures a few degrees below normal. It will be dry with lighter winds, though north winds could come close to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the far eastern plains. Areal coverage does not look widespread enough for another round of fire weather highlights. Another night of subfreezing temperatures can be expected for Saturday night through Sunday morning across much of the plains. Temperatures do not look as cold, with lows in the 20s to lower 30s, but areas along and north of the Arkansas River have another shot of seeing a hard freeze. Have hoisted another Freeze Watch for this period.

Sunday and Monday will be dry and warmer as another upper ridge translates in from the west. Any critical fire weather conditions will be confined to the southern and eastern portions of the area as the lee side surface low deepens, but do not think these will be widespread critical fire weather days. Some moisture returns over the mountains on Monday for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but any precipitation will be spotty and light.

Southwest flow aloft increases for mid to late week as the next Pacific low pushes onshore out west. These look like more widespread critical fire weather days for the lower elevations with temperatures rebounding back into the 80s to lower 90s across the plains, 60s and 70s for the valleys and 40s and 50s for the mountains. This system will move across the Rockies on Thursday with the operational GFS still showing some promise for a more southern tracking closed low on Thursday which would suggest the possibility for some more meaningful precipitation across much of southern CO. However all of the other long range models and ensembles still point to a more open and northern storm track which would put southern CO under the drier and windier portion of the system. Extended forecast leans towards the drier majority for now. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

KALS:

VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Gusty west winds from the west-southwest, gusting 35 knots or so, will turn more northwesterly this afternoon and evening before winds weaken overnight.

KCOS:

First surge from the front has passed, with another expected to move in within the next few hours. Winds around 18Z will be from the northeast at 25 knots, turning more northerly and increasing to 35- 40 knots as the next surge moves in. With it, expect snow showers to emerge across the Palmer Divide, bringing periods of limited vis, lower clouds, and some blowing snow. Showers should clear by 00Z, with winds weakening after about 03Z. VFR then returns into tomorrow.

KPUB:

Gusty east winds will turn northeasterly within the next few hours, while MVFR clouds generally persist through the day. A few passing showers will pass to the east, with one or two potentially impact the terminal for a few hours. Low confidence leaves things at PROB30 for now. If a shower does impact the terminal, a rain/snow mix and lowered vis will be possible for brief periods. Winds will also increase, gusting 30-35 knots, up to 40 knots under any passing showers. Winds decrease after about 02Z, with VFR returning prior to 06Z tonight with clearing skies.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ083>089-093>099. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Red Flag Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ230-233- 237.