textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

Key Messages:

- Critical fire weather conditions will linger into this evening across the area. Red Flag Warning in effect through 9pm.

- Chances for precipitation increase this weekend and into early next week. Possible snow over the mountain peaks, while the plains see showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Upper low continues to push through our area, bringing cooler and somewhat mild conditions into this evening behind a passing cold front. One or two showers may pop along the front near the CO/KS border, but surface conditions appear too dry for any actual precip, so just looking at outflow winds if anything manages to form. Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s-40s over the plains, and in the 20s for the mountain valleys. Looking at the fire weather potential moving into Friday, overnight RH recovery looks to be above 50 percent east of the I-25 corridor, but a bit lower over and near the southeast mountains. Winds will be a bit lighter overnight as well, aside from a few gap flow gusts near Huerfano County.

Friday...

More fire weather is expected on Friday. RH will approach single digits to the low-teens in the afternoon, with gusty winds once again. Pressure gradient tightens up aloft in the afternoon, though mid-level flow appears a bit weaker than the last few days. Expecting breezy south winds over the plains, while the higher terrain sees more of the gusty west-southwest flow we've been experiencing through most of the week. Upgraded the Watch to a Red Flag, still valid for most of our area 11am through 9pm. Temperatures will be similar, if a few degrees warmer in some places. Expect low-mid 70s for the plains and 60s for the valleys and the top of the Palmer.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Saturday-Sunday...

Pattern starts to pick up heading into this weekend, with a strong closed low spinning in southern Canada. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough will begin moving in from the Pacific Northwest, while a secondary low and shortwave trough moves onto the western coast of California.

Distant upper low will send a front south across the plains on Saturday, increasing chances for showers and storms over the higher terrain during the latter half of the day. More widespread precipitation is expected for our area on Sunday, as the broad upper trough begins to amplify and the shortwave moves through the region. Will see how the temperature forecast shapes up over the higher terrain, but current thinking is for some accumulating snow over our peaks, especially along the Continental Divide, while the rest of the area sees chances for showers and thunderstorms. POPs could, and probably will, decrease for us Sunday if the system trends north at all, but currently we still have a good chance to get some moisture into our CWA.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees this weekend, especially over the higher terrain, but conditions will generally be mild with temps similar to Thursday and Friday.

Monday Onwards...

Pattern into next week looks messy and unsettled, with one trough pushing east of us while two additional lobes of energy move in over Idaho and the Pacific coastline. As this energy approaches our area through the first half of the week, we'll see more chances for widespread precipitation, with temperatures remaining a few degrees above normal. Details remain uncertain, due to model differences when resolving the upper-level flow pattern, but more details will be honed down in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

KALS: Winds remain generally westerly throughout the day and this evening, gusting around 30-35 knots. Mid-level clouds will move in and out throughout this forecast period.

KCOS: Gusty west-southwest winds will turn northwest this afternoon as a front moves in, shifting more northeasterly behind the front. Current data has winds shifting around 20-21Z, through around 00Z, before weakening overnight. Mid-level cloud cover will persist.

KPUB: winds this morning will turn southwesterly ahead of an incoming front, shifting winds northwest by 20Z or so and more northerly after 00Z. Expect gusts this afternoon 30-35 knots, with winds weakening overnight. Mid-level clouds will linger today but skies should clear later tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

High fire danger will continue into this evening, with gusty winds and single-digit RH values. Winds over and near the higher terrain will generally keep a west component to them, but winds over the plains will be much more complex this evening as a cold front moves in from the north. Winds will shift from the west to north-northwest, and then northeasterly after the front has passed. Gusts will persist until around 10 PM but are expected to weaken overnight.

Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday. Winds are slightly weaker than today, but given the return of single digit RH values and gusts still hitting the 25 mph threshold in places, the ongoing elevated fire danger warranted an upgrade.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222- 224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ220>222- 224>237.