textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry Monday, with some fire weather concerns.

- Passing system brings snow to the mountain peaks and rain to the lower elevations, Tues/Weds.

- More weather systems possible late week into next weekend, though track and intensity details still far from certain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Warm and generally quiet through the rest of today, with cloud cover increasing from the west into tonight.

Weak lee troughing over the plains tonight will keep low temperatures relatively warm, particularly along the mountains/plains interface. Expect high-30s just west of I-25, lower 30s out east, and mid-20s for the high valleys. Cloud cover will increase into Sunday morning as a weak cool front backs in from the east.

Cooler and cloudier on Sunday, with highs in the 50s-60s over most of the area, though some areas over the far southern I-25 corridor could breach 70 degrees. Highs over the plains may be tricky, with some of the models showing more cloud cover and keeping things a bit cooler. On the contrary, some sites further east could easily jump 5 or so degrees higher should the clouds underperform.

Meanwhile, some passing energy embedded in the upper level flow will kick up some scattered snow showers, late tonight and into Sunday, over the peaks of the Continental Divide. However, the majority of the forcing should remain north of our CWA, so accumulations will be light, with any precip ending by Sunday Night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Highs climb well above seasonal averages on Monday as the cool air retreats. Model consensus has increased a bit, particularly over the plains, but some areas will be dependent on cloud cover. Fire weather will be a concern, mainly along and west of southern I-25, but could see potential for conditions to spread north if we get more of a downsloping wind component close to the Palmer. As of now, RH is a bit too high and winds are too low to warrant any fire weather highlights, but that could easily change if winds pick up more in the coming model runs.

No major changes to the long-range forecast at this time. Model solutions still bring a low pressure system through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Best forcing for precip still appears to be over the northern half of the state, with a few of the deterministic model solutions taking the passing low further north. Currently expecting likely rain showers over the Palmer/Pikes Peak Region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, while a few inches of snow hits the peaks of the Continental Divide. That being said, QPF has continued to trend down, and if the low shifts any further north I can see the expected QPF to decrease even more. Still, given the lift present with the passing system, what showers we do get could be convectively driven, so heavier precip rates could be something to watch for.

Quick warm up Wed/Thu as system departs, with max temps well above seasonal averages at all locations both days. Model solutions begin to diverge on Thursday, some bringing a quick-moving open wave into CO by the late afternoon, while others send a slower closed low just to our south on Friday. The end of the week will generally be cooler and wetter, with generally more active conditions, but with models so out of phase, will have to wait and see for more details to become consistent.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1012 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds should remain under 10 knots with diurnal flow patterns. Mid to high level cloud cover will increase this afternoon, lasting into Sunday.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.