textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage through today, with the greatest coverage tonight.

- Flooding will be possible in any areas that have already received rain or receive multiple rounds of rain.

- Drier and warmer conditions return this weekend.

- Another storm system is expected early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today and Tonight: For midweek, wet weather will be in place for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, southwesterly flow filled with rich Pacific moisture, will be streaming over the region. Along with that, shortwaves will be embedded in the broader flow and pushing over the area, especially tonight. The moist flow, combined with ascent from the shortwaves, will bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of precipitation will steadily increase throughout the day today, and peak overnight, and across the far eastern plains, when a greater plume of moisture and more organized shortwave passes over. In addition, with minimal to no capping in place, any instability will be released in a "slow burn" fashion, which will further support widespread convective thundershowers and weak thunderstorms. With that all said, given the likely efficient rain producers from this setup, flooding can't be ruled out, especially in areas that have already received moisture over the past week or so. Besides precipitation, today and tonight brings widespread cloud cover, with breezy winds across the area. The strongest winds are anticipated across the eastern plains, where a tighter surface gradient will support gusty winds to around 25-30 mph. As for temperatures, with thick cloud cover in place, temperatures will remain below seasonal highs for the day and will remain above seasonal lows for tonight. With that said, for today, the plains will be in the 70s, the valleys in the 60s, and the mountains in the mid 40s to 50s. For tonight, the plains will be in the 50s, the valleys in the 40s to low 50s, and the mountains in the mid 30s to 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Thursday - Friday: For the later part of the week, the wet pattern continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. Moist southwesterly flow, with additional embedded shortwaves, will be streaming over the region. This pattern will bring additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The greatest coverage of precipitation will be on Thursday, with another day of scattered to widespread showers and storms. Coverage is expected to lessen some through Friday as the deeper moisture lessens and is pushed east, with coverage more isolated to scattered in nature. Along with that, precipitation Friday will favor the mountains more, as weaker broader ascent becomes reinforced by orographic forcing. Beyond all of that, another couple of cloudy and breezy days is anticipated, though with cloud cover starting to thin out Friday. Also like Wednesday, the breeziest winds are expected across the eastern plains. Looking at temperatures, a slow warming trend begins, with high temperatures Thursday remaining slightly below seasonal, and then warming to near seasonal Friday. Then for lows, they follow their respective trend, with lows Thursday night above seasonal lows, and then cooling back to around seasonal lows Friday night.

Saturday - Sunday: For the weekend, quieter weather makes a brief return to south central and southeastern Colorado. Ridging will start to develop over the area, bringing greater subsidence and drier area. With this pattern in place, dry conditions are expected to prevail for much of the area. With that said though, a rogue shower can not be ruled out along the mountains given weak forcing and modest moisture in place. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloud skies with fairly light winds is anticipated. Temperatures will also continue the warming trend, with much of the region warming back to above seasonal values.

Monday - Tuesday: Now heading into early next week, we return to an active pattern. Troughing is expected to push across south central and southeastern Colorado during this timeframe. Confidence is medium to high (50-70%) in this feature passing over the area given strong agreement between ensemble guidance. However, there is still some uncertainty in how this pattern ultimately evolves, such as how amplified the troughing becomes and how much moisture is pulled northward ahead of it. Regardless, this pattern is expected to bring increased precipitation chances to the area Monday into early Tuesday. The greatest coverage of precipitation is anticipated to remain along the mountains, where forcing will be best. Then through Tuesday, drier conditions start to return on the backside of the troughing. Outside of precipitation concerns, clouds and winds are expected to increase with this pattern. Then looking at temperatures, Monday would be expected to remain above seasonal values ahead of the system, with temperatures falling Tuesday behind it and with a potential cold front passage.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A surge of subtropical moisture into Colorado will bring MVFR/IFR conditions to the 3 taf sites during the next 24 hours.

The moisture has already moved into the San Luis valley and expect MVFR to IFR conditions at KALS through the next 24 hours.

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR likely through early evening, then low MVFR/IFR cigs will move in thereafter with occasional showers/-tsra.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Thursday evening for COZ068.