textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High Fire Danger for much of the area this evening until 10 PM due to gusty winds and low humidity levels. Weak RH recovery expected overnight tonight.

- Critical fire weather conditions again for Tuesday, and onward through the work week for the mountains and at times the adjacent plains depending on position of the dryline.

- Severe storms possible Tuesday far eastern plains with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks.

- Hottest days of the forecast will be Thursday through Saturday, then a hint at some possible moisture across the plains for Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently...Strong upper longwave trough over the western US has produced strong southwest flow across the Four Corners region, leading to hot and dry conditions across the forecast area and widespread high fire danger. Temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the 70s to near 80F for the high valleys, and upper 80s to near 100F for the plains.

Tonight...Little change to the upper pattern through the night, with brisk southwest flow aloft continuing. Current Red Flag Warning drops off at 10 PM as temps cool and winds are expected to lessen, but overnight humidity recovery is forecast to be somewhat poor along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts. This sets up a potential dangerous situation for ongoing wildfires, due to persistent activity overnight and a quicker start up period tomorrow morning. Residents are urged to exercise caution this evening with outdoor activities. Overnight low temps are forecast to drop into the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Tomorrow...Very similar pattern in place, though a lobe of energy in the upper trough was move up into the Great Basin, shifting the flow aloft across CO to a more south-southwest direction. Gusty, hot and dry conditions will persist across the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor, therefore a Red Flag is in place from 10 AM through 10 PM for those areas. However, farther east models indicate some llvl moisture being drawn up across NM and into the far eastern CO plains, with model CAPE of around 2000 j/kg right along the eastern border in the afternoon. Bulk shear is sitting right at around 30 kts, so may threats will likely be strong gusty winds, lightning and potentially larger hail, and SPc has brought the Slight area for severe thunderstorms back into Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. Plan on highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to near 100F for the plains once again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Little change to the ongoing upper pattern, with the upper trough keeping a predominantly southwest flow aloft in place through Wed, while at the surface the dryline across the east will waver, allowing some llvl moisture to creep into the southeast corner of CO. High fire danger persists, so went ahead and pushed the Fire Weather Watch out for Wed for a nearly identical area as Tue, with the question remaining on how far west the higher surface dewpoints will track.

Thursday through Saturday...The area starts to "dry" out even moreso as the flow aloft shifts from southwest to a more westerly zonal flow, as the trough begins to break down and migrate to the north. Storm potential for the east dissipates, and fire wx concerns intensify for all areas including the eastern plains. High temps will climb into the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 95- 105F range for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Long range models indicate that an upper ridge tries to build into the US southern plains, drawing gulf moisture up across NM TX, NM and OK into southeastern CO. This would potentially provide for 5 to 10 degrees of "cooling" for the plains, as well as a shot of some beneficial precipitation. Stay tuned. Moore

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Gusty W-SW winds across much of the forecast area today through approx 06z, with gusts of 25-35 kts, along with areas of smoke from numerous area fires. smoke will be evident, though vsby should not drop below 6SM. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated over the next 24 hours for much of the forecast area, including the three TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

Winds will be on the increase once again for TAF sites starting between 15z-17z tomorrow, though gusts are forecast to be slightly less, in the 20-25 kt range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A very heavy FireWx-centric weather pattern is in place, and should remain for the most part through the work week. A Red Flag Warning remains in place for all of the CWA today until 10 PM, and weak RH recovery overnight is anticipated. Another Red Flag Warning remains in place for much of the area Tuesday from 10 AM through 10 PM, but kept the far eastern plains out due to the possibility of some stronger afternoon convection closer to the eastern border. Finally, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for a nearly identical area for Wednesday morning through Wednesday night, due to the expected combination of gusty winds and RH levels in the 5-15% range. Additional highlights for Thu and Fri for portions of the area are likely.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>237. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ220>233. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ220>230-233.