textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily showers/storms continue today and Tuesday.

- Drier over the mts Wednesday, with shower/storm chances out east.

- Warmer and drier Thurs/Fri, with fire concerns for the San Luis Valley and nearby mts.

- Some hints of potentially cooler and wetter weather possible next weekend, though confidence is low at this point.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Strong upper low continues to move down from the Pacific Northwest, with a baggy trough digging in over the western states. Brisk southerly flow aloft continues advecting moist air into our area, giving us a decent chance at seeing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight.

Models have continued showing scattered showers and thunderstorms that linger across the eastern plains into this evening before slowly dissipating. Over the higher terrain, southerly flow keeps showers going through most of the night and into Tuesday morning, with mild low temperatures in the 40s-50s.

Tuesday...

Upper wave moves into our area tomorrow, bringing some more moisture and better precip chances across the area. Showers will linger in the mountains from overnight, leading to stable but persistent rain showers. Meanwhile, scattered showers will move across the plains through the afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible closer to the KS border. While moisture won't be an issue, instability is somewhat lacking. Current guidance shows varying CAPE across the eastern plains, ranging anywhere from about 200-800 J/kg on average, depending on which model you look at. Certainly enough for some embedded thunder and maybe even some small hail, but the odds for any stronger to severe storms is very low at this time. That being said, most areas have a decent chance at getting some wetting rain. Temperatures will also be noticeably cooler than today, with mid 70s- 80s over the plains and 60s to low-70s for the high valleys.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Main upper low moves onshore around CA Wednesday, with some of the energy on the east side of the system impacting our region. Winds aloft will turn more west-southwest, advecting some drier air into the mountains from the Desert Southwest and cutting back on precip. Meanwhile, lowering pressure over the far eastern plains will drag up warmer, moist air from the Gulf area, increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Still not expecting much instability, and flow aloft isn't particularly strong, so still not a terribly high chance of anything severe. Still, if CAPE manages to push towards 1000 J/kg, could see a few stronger thunderstorms during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler over the plains compared to Tuesday, and a few degrees warmer over the higher terrain.

Drier air continues funneling into the region Thursday-Friday, with temps out east warming back into the mid-high 80s and RH dropping below critical thresholds both afternoons. As the closed upper low encroaches on western Colorado, southern flow over our higher terrain will increase both days, leading to widespread critical fire weather conditions in the San Luis Valley, as well as some of the adjacent mountains. Any potential fire weather highlights will need to be assessed in the coming days, along with fuel conditions.

Pattern heading into this weekend still appears to be somewhat messy, with latest guidance having the trough swinging back up to the north and leaving weaker flow in place over our region. The weak forcing and moisture advection suggests a slightly cooler and overall wetter pattern, but the details will need a few more days to come into focus between the models.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the next 24 hours.

Mid-level clouds will increase throughout the afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area, potentially impacting all three TAF sites. Coverage will be somewhat spotty, but outflow winds will be prevalent enough to include a PROB30 in all TAFs once again, with gusts 35-40 knots possible at times. Precip chances dwindle at KCOS and KPUB this evening, though showers are expected to linger near KALS into tomorrow morning, with some potential cig drops in MVFR prior to 12Z. Lower-end chance for a few lingering showers near KPUB as well, but only around 07-10Z tonight.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.