textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms possible through the early evening. - Another round of showers and storms on Wednesday, greatest coverage over and near the higher terrain, with locally heavy rainfall possible and an isolated strong storm possible far eastern plains.

- A warming and drying trend remains in the offing for the weekend into early next week, with a few afternoon mtn showers and storms remaining possible each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 217 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Moderate southwest flow aloft continues across the region, with east to southeast low level flow keeping dew pts in the the 50s across the southeast plains early this afternoon. Further west, dewpts are in the 30s and 40s over and near the eastern mountains and up the mid and upper Arkansas River Valley, with dew pts mainly in the teens and 20s across the rest of the higher terrain and into the San Luis Valley. SPC meso analysis has CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg over and near the eastern mtns, with 1000-2000 j/kg across the southeast plains as of 1 pm, however, with the clouds and warmer air aloft, analysis is indicating ample CIN in place as well. Bulk shear remains fairly weak, with 15 to 30kts being analyzed south to north across the region at this time. Regional radars as of 1 pm have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, greatest coverage across the northern mtns, with showers and storms also starting to lift out across southern Sangres and the northeastern New Mexico highlands.

For Tonight...latest high res model data are starting to keep the plains fairly stable, with clouds and warmer air aloft keeping deep moist convection capped. Will continue to see scattered showers and storms developing over and near the eastern mtns, where effective shear of 20- 30kts, could support a few stronger storms producing hail and gusty outflow winds. Showers and storms weaken as the push across the plains, though continued waa could keep showers ongoing across the plains into the late evening hours. WAA and slow clearing will keep lows in the 50s across the plains, with 30s and 40s expected across the higher terrain.

Flow aloft becomes modestly more westerly tomorrow, with latest model data supporting better coverage of afternoon showers and storms, with more expected solar heating through the day. Best coverage of storms remains over and near the higher terrain, where slower movement of storms will support locally heavy rainfall, and the potential for localized flash flooding. Further east, lee troughing and developing southerly winds across plains will support the potential for a few stronger storms across the far southeast plains with HREF data indicating mean CAPE of up to 1500 j/kg, however expected weak shear will be a limiting factor to severe storms. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer across the plains mainly in the 80s, with 50s, 60s and 70s expected once again across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 217 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Model data continues to indicate warmer and drier conditions across the region for the end of the work into early next week, with flow aloft remaining weak westerly as upper level ridging builds across the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Models do indicate the likelihood of above seasonal temperatures, but differ on amount of available moisture in place, with likely enough moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, especially over and near the higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Moist east to southeast flow has helped to keep low clouds at COS and PUB through the morning, with MVFR/low VFR cigs continuing through the early afternoon. Low chances of -TSRA/SHRA at the terminals through the early evening, with VFR conditions expected to persist through the rest of the taf period.

VFR conditions expected at ALS through the taf period. Breezy southwest winds through the afternoon, with low chances of high based showers.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.