textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, east of the mountains.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, particularly around the Aspen Acres fire.

- Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with moisture slowly returning to across Western Colorado next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly flow in place across the Central Rockies, with a minor embedded shortwave translating through the faster zonal flow across Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicates drying across Great Basin and into Western Colorado, with PWATs of 40-60% of normal, with PWATs across Eastern Colorado currently running around 100 to 120 percent of normal. Regional radars already lighting up with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Continental Divide into the Eastern mtns and Pikes Peak region as of 1230 pm.

For this afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent of scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place, with the potential for storms to congeal into a MCS rolling into western Kansas through the late evening and overnight hours. With ample DCAPE in place, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, will be a concern for storms across the plains through the evening, with hail up to an inch in diameter and brief heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. While some drier air has worked into south central Colorado and into western portions of the Aspen Acres burn area within the modest westerly flow, can't rule out a stronger cell producing locally heavy rainfall, with a Flash Flood watch remaining in place until 8 pm. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies from west to east with convective outflow bringing back low level moisture across plains within east to northeast low level flow, keeping overnight lows at to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, with mainly 40s across the higher terrain.

Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the region for Friday, with weak easterly sfc-H7 keeping moisture in place across the eastern mtns and plains, while drier air remains in place across western and into south central Colorado. Latest high res models indicate CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg across the eastern mtns into the far southeast plains, with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity as they spread east into the eastern plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a marginal to slight risk tomorrow afternoon. The increased moisture and instability across the eastern mtns tomorrow will lead to another risk of locally heavy rainfall across the Aspen Acres Burn area, leading to more day of a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12-8pm.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

For the weekend, upper level ridging builds across the Four Corners and into the northern Rockies through Sunday, leading to warmer and drier conditions expected across the region with modest east to northeast flow aloft pushing the best moisture south and west of the region. There may be enough residual moisture to support a few showers and storms across the southeast mtns on Saturday afternoon, though convection would be mainly high based, producing more gusty outflow winds than measurable precipitation. This will be a concern for fire fighting efforts once again. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be some 5-10F above seasonal levels in the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the high mtns valleys. Will need to monitor for potential heat advisories across the region, however, current forecast fall short of criteria being the middle of summer.

For the becoming and into the middle of next week, the upper high and "heat dome" is expected to move north and east into the Upper Midwest, with modest easterly flow remaining progged across eastern Colorado while modest south to southwest flow develops across western Colorado. This will keep drier air in place across eastern Colorado and allow for a slow increase in available moisture pushing across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin into western Colorado. While temperatures remain at to slightly above seasonal levels and flow aloft remains modest, can't rule out spotty critical fire weather conditions developing across the region through the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KALS...VFR conditions overnight into Friday early afternoon with light winds. There are a few showers across western portions of the San Luis Valley, but confidence in one hitting the terminal is low through 02z this evening. Westerly wind will increase by early afternoon and showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminal through the afternoon with gusty outflow winds being the main concern.

KCOS and KPUB...showers have come to an end at both terminals for the evening, with VFR conditions prevail overnight into Friday early afternoon. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms forecast for both terminals, with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall possible.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ079-080-086.