textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, warm and breezy today leading to critical fire weather conditions across much of the forecast area.

- A passing cold front will cause cooler, but near seasonal temperatures on Thursday, with elevated fire weather conditions still present.

- Conditons warm into the early weekend, with cooler and more unsettled weather late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 111 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong flow at the 500mb level is present above the forecast area this afternoon. A persistent and stubborn upper level trough sits over the northern plains with higher pressure to the east and west of the area. A well mixed atmosphere will develop through the day leading to strong westerly winds of 25-35mph by later this afternoon. The a surface low pressure center over the lower Arkansas River Valley is causing easterlies at the moment, yet when this low moves off to the east, westerlies will fill in. These westerlies will advect dry, adiabatically warmed air over the area sharply increasing afternoon temperatures. Forecast confidence in triple digit temperatures for Pueblo has decreased as this low pressure currently shows slower movement than models were originally suggesting. There is high confidence however of humidities decreasing to the single digits for the vast majority of southern CO by later this afternoon.

Overnight, global models show fair agreement of a shortwave disturbance rippling down underneath the upper level trough to the north. A cold frontal passage will be associated with this disturbance. For areas east of the mountains, winds will increase around 3 A.M. This front will also usher in dry, cooler air to the forecast area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 111 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The aforementioned northerly winds are expected to shift to easterlies through the morning tomorrow. Dry air will continue to flow into the region leading to minimal storm potential even with orographic lift. High resolution models do suggest some clouds forming over the mountains, yet no precipitation is expected (0% of >0.01"). Friday and Saturday show continued dry air and strong winds over the area. Moist air will attempt to enter back into the eastern plains which will increase the chance of showers each afternoon.

More widespread unsettled weather is predicted for the area Sunday into Monday as a secondary shortwave disturbance dips down into SE CO. Global model ensembles show normal to slightly above normal PWAT values during this frontal passage. Long range CAPE calculations also show enough instability to promote wingspread rain. NBM data shows the likelihood of wetting rain (>0.10") over 24 hours for Sunday between 40-70%. After this rain, ensemble clusters suggest an upper level ridge forming over PacNW with this upper trough migrating more towards the Great Lakes region. This synoptic set up allows for steady patterns of seasonable temperatures and afternoon convection beginning early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions with dry weather are expected at all sites this forecast period. The winds and speeds will be the main challenges this forecast period, especially at COS and PUB. For ALS, the current southwest winds and gusts will persist into early this evening, with winds becoming light and variable tonight. Southwest winds do return tomorrow, however, not quite as strong as today.

For COS, the current westerly winds and gusts will veer slightly to northwest this evening, while diminishing. Will see a stronger front slide south during the overnight hours and likely reach COS in that 7-8z time frame, strengthening the northerly winds. Did increase speeds and gusts, however, could see later forecasts needing to further increase. At PUB, lighter winds should prevail this evening with an eventual wind shift back to the west/northwest early this evening. Similar trends are expected for PUB, with that front reaching the terminal in the 8-9Z time frame. Additionally, similar thoughts on speeds/gusts and trends are expected for PUB. For COS and PUB, the gusts will eventually diminish Thursday morning, with a trend back to more of a lighter and diurnal component.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Critical fire weather concerns exist across the district through the end of the week. Very dry air with peak low RH values in the single digits are expected through today. Westerly winds up to 35-40mph are being observed and are expected to continue through the evening. A cold frontal passage across the plains overnight will increase northerly winds and RH recoveries in the far eastern zones. Northerly winds will be as strong as 45mph during the morning. These strong winds will force dry air into the region leading to Red Flag conditions through the afternoon. Forecast confidence has rapidly increased in regards to strong E-NE winds forcing dry air into fire zones along the foothills through the afternoon with strong gusts of 30-40mph leading to Red Flag conditions. Forecast confidence has also increased on more widespread critical fire weather conditions Friday due to strong W-SE winds and RH values in the low teens to high single digits for areas currently under Fire Weather Watches.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ220-222>224. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222>224- 229-230-234>236. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ222- 228>230. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ229-230. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MDT Thursday for COZ231- 234>236.