textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for portions of the area today.

- Chances for precipitation increase this weekend and into early next week. Snow likely for the mountain peaks, while the plains should see some showers and isolated thunderstorms.

- High fire danger may be possible Tuesday, then another active pattern setting in through the second half of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Currently...Upper low is centered just north of MT and the Dakotas this morning, while a longwave trough is starting to develop back across the western third of the country. Brisk west-southwest flow aloft is in place across the Four Corners region, while a surface front is pushing south across the Palmer Divide and into the southeast plains. The front pushed across PUB ASOS just prior to midnight. The front is expected to bring cooler air as well as an increase in low- level moisture, and overnight lows are anticipated to bottom out in the 20s to around 30F for the high valleys, and 30s to around 40F for the plains.

Today...The cold front will continue south and west across the plains this morning, and where this boundary finally sets up is the challenge. At the same time, southwest flow aloft increases as an upper low pushes onshore across the CA coast. Gusty southwest surface winds will butt heads with the advancing cold front, with the boundary likely setting up from Pueblo County back to the southeast across eastern Las Animas County. Areas to the east of that line will see E-NE surface winds, slightly cooler temps and higher humidity levels. To the west of that boundary, gusty W-SW winds and continued very dry conditions. See below for more details, but spotty critical fire weather conditions are anticipated. Isolated showers are forecast to develop along the Continental Divide by midday, then spread to all of the higher terrain and El Paso County through the afternoon. Plan on highs today in the 60s for the high valleys, 60s along and north of Highway 50, and upper 60s to mid 70s south of Highway 50.

Tonight...The CA upper low gets absorbed into the upper trough and pushes across NV, nearing the Four Corners. Increasing lift and available moisture will finally bring some much-needed moisture to the mts, with snow totals as of right now ranging from 3 to 5 inches for the peaks of the eastern San Juans, 2 to 4 inches for the central mountains, and 1 to 3 inches for the peaks of the eastern mountains. Scattered rain showers will also spread across the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains through the evening. Overnight lows should be on the mild side due to increased cloud cover, with readings in the 30s for the high valleys, and mid 30s to lower 40s for the plains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sunday...First upper shortwave embedded with the trough will cross the state on Sunday, bringing additional snow to the mts and atmospheric moisture increases. Current forecast grids paint an additional 6-8 inches of new snow for the peaks of the Continental Divide through the day and night, while the rest of the higher terrain sees 2-4 inches. These amounts, minus any potential melting, are leaning towards advisory criteria, but will have the following shift take another look just in case this QPF is too heavy handed. meanwhile, across the eastern plains, increasing southerly flow will draw up some low-level moisture and provide the first real shot at some thunderstorm activity for the plains in quite a while. About 1000 j/kg of CAPE blossoms mid-afternoon across the plains and pushes to the east-northeast, and SPC has painted the entire CWA with General thunder, and portions of the plains with A Marginal risk of strong to severe storms. Stay tuned as this looks like an interesting day. Plan on high temps in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains.

Monday...The messy upper pattern continues as the second shortwave tracks across the region. Another day of snow chances for the higher terrain, and convection for the San Luis Valley and eastern plains, though the northern sections of the forecast area will have the best shot of precipitation, mainly the central mts and the Palmer Divide. Pikes Peak and even Monument Hill may see some new snow late Monday afternoon and evening, though some melting will occur over Monument. Look for highs around 60F for the high valleys, 50s to around 70F for much of the plains, and mid 50s for northern El Paso County.

Tuesday...Increasing westerly flow aloft will mean slightly warmer temps and a increasing fire danger across the southern portions of the warning area. Another shortwave brushing by to the north will bring continued isolated to scattered showers to the central mts and Pikes Peak region through the day, while those areas along the southern border including the San Luis Valley will see increased downslope flow and single digit RH levels creeping back in.

Wednesday through Friday...Blend of models indicates that Wednesday may se a slight increase in precip chances across all of the area, along with near-normal temperatures. Another upper low system will then track across the Four Corners region, but will follow a more southerly path, bringing another shot of mt snow and storm chances to the plains for Thu and Fri. Moore

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 517 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through much of the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will increase by early afternoon, with gusts near 30 to 35 kts possible. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the afternoon and into the evening, lowering to near 5 kft for the overnight period.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through this afternoon with increasing mid and high clouds. Easterly surface flow will increase this afternoon as a boundary backs into the I-25 corridor, with gusts 25 to 30 kts possible. Increased moisture will lead to low stratus development overnight as winds weaken by Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Very dry conditions and receptive fuels remain.

Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Fire Zones 220, 224, 229 and 230 today from Noon until 8 PM for southwest winds 15 to 25 mph gusting up to 40 mph, and RH levels as low as 10 percent. Fire Zone 224, and the valley floor of Fire Zone 220, has the greatest chance of seeing widespread critical weather conditions this afternoon due to low RH levels and strong gusty winds. Zones 229 and 230 will be a bit more questionable since it will be heavily dependent on where the boundary sets up between the advancing cold front, and gusty downslope W-SW winds. Spotty elevated conditions may also be possible for gap flow areas in eastern Fremont, southern El Paso, and northern Pueblo counties, but at this time it does not look like the areal coverage and time criteria would be met in those locations.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-224-229-230.