textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight increase in precipitation chances today, then widespread shower and storm activity from Wednesday through the weekend. Flash flood concerns increase for area burn scars.

- Temperatures will remain hot throughout the extended forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Currently...Another fairly quiet night across the forecast area, with just a slight increase in shower and storm activity across the central mts. Skies are for the most part mostly clear, with just some lingering clouds along the Continental Divide and westward. Given how hot it was today, it should be a warm night tonight with overnight lows in the 50s to near 60F for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains.

Today and Tonight...Very little change to the model solution over the past few days, at the risk of sounding like a broken record. Upper high pressure ridge axis shifts edges to the east today, opening the door for increasing moisture up across the Four Corners and Great Basin, while at the same time a weak "cold" front drops down the eastern plains this morning. As surface winds shift east through the morning, a slight increase in llvl moisture will push west towards the I-25 Corridor and eastern mts. This, combined with the increasing moisture across western Co, should mean isolated convection developing by midday for the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor, becoming more scattered by late afternoon into early evening. The far eastern plains will likely remain dry.

As precip chances go up, so does the concern for flash flooding potential across area burn scars - a reoccurring threat that will persist through the extended forecast period. Feel that both the Willow and the Aspen Acres Fires will need to be monitored closely by late afternoon into the evening. Forecast QPF continues to be unimpressive today, but all it takes is one slow-moving storm. Plan on highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the high valleys, and mid 90s to lower 100s for the plains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Temps are forecast to remain hot through the extended period, with models indicating that Thu and Fri will be slightly "cooler" days.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge axis remains along the eastern border of CO on Wed, then the high pressure centroid shifts back westward on Thu. A rather strong upper shortwave tracks across the Great Basin on Wed and rides the crest of the ridge, across the Rockies on Thu. This feature corresponds nicely with the model 1000- 500 mb RH fields, which indicate a healthy slug of moisture sweeping across the region. This will be the trigger and the fuel for more widespread convection across all of the higher terrain both days, with scattered to even likely activity spilling onto the plains as well. Flash flooding threat for area burn scars increase significantly for these days, and a Flash Flood Watch may be deemed necessary. Look for highs Wed very similar to today, with 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and mid 90s to low 100s for the plains. Increased cloud cover on Thu should help knock a couple degrees off the max temp, with 80s for the high valleys and 90s for the plains.

Friday...The upper shortwave exits to the east Fri morning, then the high pressure ridge builds back in overhead. Moisture trapped under the high will fuel afternoon and evening convection once again, with showers and thunderstorms likely across the higher terrain, and more scattered in nature for the lower elevations. Plan on highs similar to readings on Thu.

Saturday through Monday...The heat returns, as high pressure overhead remains firmly in place. Moisture trapped under the high will recirculate each day, fueling likely afternoon and evening activity across the mts, and scattered elsewhere. Flash flood concerns will continue, though it could be more spotty in nature. Moore

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours. A front will drop through KCOS and KPUB between 09z and 12z bringing northerly winds gusting up to 25 kts. Winds will shift from the east to southeast at all three terminals with gusts up to 25 kts in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible at all three terminals in the afternoon which could produce some gusty erratic outflow winds through 01-02z. Showers and thunderstorms should dissipate or move east of the terminals after 02z with winds eventually settling into more diurally driven overnight patterns. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.