textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected today through Tuesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday, with strong thunderstorms possible.

- More active pattern emerges Thursday through Sunday, with heightened precipitation and fire weather chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Today and Tonight: For Monday, quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be developing across the four corners region, and will influence the area. With subsidence increasing from this feature, along with a downtick in moisture, dry conditions are expected today and tonight. The exception to this may be along the mountains, where a highly isolated, diurnally driven, shower can't be ruled out this afternoon. Outside of that, other than some partly cloudy skies during the afternoon, mostly clear skies prevail, with relatively light winds around and less than 10 mph anticipated. Winds are expected to be a bit breezier across the plains this afternoon though, where the pressure gradient of the surface lee trough will be tightest, with gusts to around 25 mph possible. Looking at temperatures, both today and tonight will be above seasonal values thanks to the ridging in place, and at least modest winds persisting overnight. For highs, the plains will warm into the 80s, the valleys into the 70s to low 80s, and the mountains into the 50s to 60s. For lows, the plains will cool into the mid 40s to mid 50s, the valleys into the mid 30s to 40s, and the mountains into the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday: Heading into the first part of the midweek period, quiet weather prevails Tuesday, with an uptick in active weather Wednesday. Ridging will continue to be in place during this period, though will start to drift eastward. While this feature will keep the area dry Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances start to increase Wednesday, as vorticity maxes embedded within the overall flow, along with diurnal and surface upsloping, overcome the broader descent. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be greatest along and west of the I-25 corridor, given most forcing mechanisms will be tied to terrain features. A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible as well, with strong outflow winds the primary hazard. Beyond all of that, winds will continue to be breezy across the plains both days, earlier Tuesday behind a weak cold front, and during the afternoon Wednesday. Sky coverage is expected to be partly cloudy both days, but especially Wednesday as clouds increase in response to an incoming pattern change. As for temperatures, despite the cold front Tuesday, both days will continue to remain warm and above seasonal values.

Thursday - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, some active weather will continue for south central and southeastern Colorado, as a pattern change takes place. Synoptically, broader troughing and embedded waves will start influencing the region, bringing an uptick in forcing and moisture. Confidence remains high (70-80%) in the overall pattern change given strong support from ensemble model guidance. With increased forcing and moisture, precipitation chances are expected to increase slightly, but especially along the mountains where forcing will be greatest. Along with that, with increasing winds, and low humidity values during the afternoons, fire weather conditions, at least meteorologically, will be possible. With that said though, recent moisture and ongoing green-up may limit overall fire concerns. Otherwise, as alluded to, breezy conditions are anticipated during this period, with increased cloud coverage, especially during the afternoons. Temperatures during this timeframe are also expected to remain warm and above seasonal values, though there are hints of a potential cold front passage sometime this weekend, which could bring slightly cooler temperatures, but confidence on that is low (20-30%) at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be light overnight, becoming westerly at KALS, and southerly at KCOS and KPUB Monday afternoon, with a few passing mid level clouds.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.