textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue into tonight, with flash flooding concerns for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Showers and storms will continue across the area each day this week. Heavy rain/flash flood risks continue.

- Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances for the end of the week into the weekend, though threat of storms never completely goes away, with at least isolated activity over the mountains possible each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Pattern remains on track from previous estimates, with high pressure over the area and the monsoon plume in place. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, with storms forming over the terrain and pushing east into tonight. PWATs remain high (>100% of normal) across the region, and with the monsoon tap continuing, storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns. The Aspen Acres burn scar will at high risk, along with low-lying terrain and some urban areas. Though shear will be on the low-side this afternoon, there should be sufficient CAPE and moisture for a few stronger to marginally severe storms, with winds 55-60 mph and some small hail. Main impact concern from storms will be the flash flood potential, followed by gusty outflow winds. Highs today will be warm again, with 80s over the interior valleys and mid-high 90s out east.

Storms move off to the east and dissipate later tonight, though outflow interactions may keep things percolating a bit later than the CAMs suggest, which has been a pattern recently.

Largely a rinse and repeat pattern for Tuesday, with a few subtle changes. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, with more cloud cover early in the day. Storm coverage will be limited early in the day, but by afternoon diurnal heating and low-level moisture will help CAPE creep up above 700-800 J/kg. Activity will initiate over the mountains as usual, pushing southeast as a weak front moves in beneath a passing disturbance aloft. As this front moves over the plains, localized increases to shear and lift will allow for some strong to severe thunderstorms east of the mountains. Will again need to watch for heavy rain and flash flooding over the burn scars, while strong outflow winds and some possible hail remain concerns further east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Looking through the rest of the week, Wednesday still appears to be our most active day. Deeper moisture will allow for higher instability across the plains, though morning cloud cover may introduce a cap that delays storms until later. Heavy rain will be a concern across much of the area, with at least marginally severe storms possible over the eastern plains again.

The upper ridge will amplify later in the week, slowly shifting to the west. This will give us a slight warming/drying trend through Saturday, though scattered showers and storms will still be possible over and near the terrain each day. The plains may see a few storms as well, but much more isolated in nature. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over the burn scars. For temperatures, highs will mostly be in the high 80s-90s, with a few areas out east will likely hit the triple-digit mark.

Later this weekend into early next week, long-range guidance is showing signs for an upper low to track in from the Pacific Northwest, which could bring a quick return to cooler and wetter conditions across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR is mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the area today, with PROB30s at all terminals late this afternoon into this evening. Gusts near storms will be capable of producing outflow winds 30-40 knots. Coverage will be too scattered for high confidence in rain at the terminals, but if something does drift overhead, briefly heavy rainfall will be possible. Vis could also drop into MVFR briefly.

Storms will depart the area after about 03Z this evening, though showers may linger near KPUB for a bit longer. Light winds and VFR will then return into Tuesday morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086.