textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A PDS Red Flag Warning remains in effect across the San Luis Valley, the central mountains, and the Sangre de Cristos, with high fire danger across the remainder of the area. - Critical fire weather conditions return to much of the area on Thursday.

- Shower chances then increase area-wide over the weekend into early next week with snow will be possible at times over the higher elevations, and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 746 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Quick update to the forecast package for expiration of the High Wind Warning across portions of the San Luis Valley this evening. Strong, gusty winds are expected to persist this evening for much of the area, but the higher end damaging wind gusts are no longer anticipated. Incorporated latest obs data and ingested some HRRR data for the front end of the grids. Red Flag Warning continues tonight until midnight, with another set to start tomorrow at 11 AM.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Currently...

Winds have picked up across the CWA, with widespread 35-45 mph gusts being observed. Red Flag is on track so far, though the strongest winds have yet to be observed in the San Luis Valley. The dry line along the CO/KS border has pushed east into KS.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Strong winds and dry surface conditions will persist into the overnight hours tonight, as a low pressure moves north of us aloft and keeps pressure gradients tight over the region. High Winds will linger over portions of the San Luis Valley until 8pm or so, with Red Flag conditions expected to persist over most of the area clear through about midnight. Winds will back off for a few hours, but west-northwest flow will start increasing again after sunrise, mainly over the higher terrain, mountain valleys and gap flow areas along I-25. One note of concern here is a general lack of good moisture recovery overnight, with RH only expected to climb into the 20s-30s across the plains and valleys by Thursday morning.

Thursday...

A broad upper trough will pass over the area on Thursday, but a few intricacies will have some challenging implications on the forecast. Models runs the last few days have slowly trended a bit north with the trough and associated upper low. Meanwhile, the system will move through rather quickly, before lifting out to the northeast around the end of the day.

As a result, a weak cold front will push in, initially from the north- northwest, passing south over the plains by mid-late afternoon. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today over most areas, with 50s-60s over the San Luis Valley and the Pikes Peak Region. Most of the eastern plains will be in the low-mid 70s, getting progressively warmer the further southeast you look due to the timing of the front. Winds will be westerly through most of the morning, shifting to the north throughout the day and into the evening. With the low trending more north, the pressure gradient still looks to slacken somewhat over our CWA, meaning that wind gusts will be weaker than they are today. That being said, surface conditions will still be very dry, with RH in the single digits to low-teens. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across the area tomorrow afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning already in place.

During the afternoon hours, some enhanced forcing from the passing system will allow for a few showers and thunderstorms, with isolated- scattered POPs over portions of the higher terrain as well as the Palmer Divide. Conditions at the surface will be too dry for any precip to actually hit the ground, but will be on the lookout for virga and outflow winds, as well as any lightning-related fire starts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Strongest portions of the upper jet moves east on Friday, though some gusty winds will still linger in our area. Meanwhile, a broad closed low will continue moving along the Canadian border to our north. Still expecting spotty critical fire weather conditions over most of our area, but at this time the winds might be on the marginal side, given the recent model trends have been backing winds off the last day or so. With the track and positioning of the upper low trending north as well, main forcing for any precip also appears to remain north of our area, outside of some isolated POPs over the central mountains later in the day.

Looking into this weekend, the synoptic pattern gets a bit messier, leaving our area cooler and a bit unsettled. As the closed low up north continues moving east, models indicate a secondary lobe of energy developing to the west of it, near Idaho. Meanwhile, a new trough is expected to make its way onto the western coast of California around that time, with the entire pattern shifting east later in the weekend. Timing and amplitude of these systems is still somewhat uncertain, but the current consensus has trended the best forcing north of our CWA, keeping most of the CWA dry on Saturday. On Sunday, there will be a better chance of moisture influx into the mountains, with a front expected to move in sometime Sunday Night into Monday as a shortwave trough pushes through. Even so, given recent trends, would not be surprised to see QPF and general precip chances trending down for the weekend over the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions expected at KALS, KCOS and KPUB over the next 24 hours. Enhanced westerly winds will decrease and shift out of a northerly direction overnight before increasing again late Thursday morning. West to northwest winds will gust up to 30-35 kts at all three terminals by Thu afternoon. Variable mid/high cloudiness will spread in during the afternoon. Winds will decrease and shift from the north around 10 kts at all three terminals around 02-03z. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>222- 224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ221- 222-224>237.