textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday over the mountains and interior valleys with locally heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding on burn scars.

- Monsoon plume shifts westward Saturday and Sunday with dry and hot conditions across the plains spreading into the southeast mountains.

- Another gradual uptick in thunderstorms expected next as the Monsoon plume transitions eastward and a cool front drops through the southeast plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1257 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Showers will gradually coming to an end across the mountains tonight with decreasing clouds towards morning. The upper high will remain centered across UT putting the best monsoon moisture fetch across AZ, UT and NV with northerly flow around the eastern side of the upper high bringing recycled moisture into the mountains and valleys of southern CO. The pattern will be similar to yesterday with showers and thunderstorms developing over the mountains around noon, before spreading southwestward into the adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening. Greatest precipitable waters (up to 150% of normal) will stay along the Continental Divide where the heaviest rain potential will set up. This will keep flash flood concerns highest for the Willow burn scar area, with much lower risks for Aspen Acres and the 24 fire as any storms that fire over the peaks will shift westward. Much like yesterday, convection should wind down during the evening with mild overnight lows across the mountains given higher dew points and remnant convective debris cloudiness.

Meanwhile the southeast plains will stay dry and breezy with high temperatures near normal with readings in the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1257 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Really not much change expected for Friday. The upper high center shifts off to the north, putting a more east to west steering current over CO. This appears to subtly decrease atmospheric moisture content Friday afternoon as the moisture plume gets shunted westward. Still looking at best precipitable waters (up to 140% of normal) along the Continental Divide, and fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance) in the afternoon and evening. But suspect we may start to see a downturn in convective coverage (30- 50% chance) for the eastern mountains and interior valleys. The southeast plains will remain dry with high temperatures similar to those of Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday will see precipitable waters continue to drop off as the monsoon moisture plume continues to shift westward and flow aloft becomes more easterly around our dominant western U.S upper high. Temperatures will warm well into the 90s to around 100, especially by Sunday across the plains, and afternoon thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered at best (20-40% chance) across the Continental Divide.

Upper high shifts eastward early next week, which should eventually put southern CO under a better monsoon moisture fetch. Models/ensembles look a little less enthused with thunderstorm potential on Monday for eastern areas due to a delay in the arrival of a cold front. With a later arrival on Tuesday, it still looks like the mid to latter part of the week may finally moisten up across southeast CO and hopefully bring some much needed rainfall. Northwest flow aloft may also increase storm strengths if low level moisture return and resultant CAPE is high enough in post frontal upslope flow. Would like to see the southerly monsoon moisture fetch shift eastward a bit more for greater confidence in more widespread wetting rains, but overall, the upslope signal suggests all burn scars in the southeast mountains (Aspen Acres and 24) may become more vulnerable to flash flooding at some point next week. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Afternoon showers and storms develop over the higher terrain and spread south and west across the high mountain valleys with weak northeast flow aloft across the Rockies. With that said, introduced prob30 1621/1701 at ALS. Winds at the terminals will again be breezy east to southeast for the afternoon and evening hours, becoming generally light diurnal drainage overnight.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.