textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances and intensity continue to decrease through the rest of the Holiday Weekend. - Drier and warmer Tue, with mainly isolated thunderstorms over the mountains.

- Slight uptick in precip chances Wed/Wed night with cold front moving through the region, then return to drier conditions possible Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest northwest flow aloft across the region at this time, with upper level ridging building across the Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, while short wave energy digs down the backside of the ridge across the Upper Midwest and Northern High Plains. Water vapor imagery is also indicating drier air embedded within the northwest flow aloft, with GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicating PWATS of 50 to 75 percent of normal across western Colorado at this time, with PWATs running around 100-120 percent of normal across southeastern Colorado. Satellite imagery and regional radars as of 1 am are indicating convection has pushed south and east into northeastern New Mexico and northwestern Oklahoma, with some lingering clouds across the Southern Mtns and the San Luis Valley at this time.

Latest model data continues to support drier air working into the region through rest of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend, with flow aloft becoming more northerly through the day Monday. This will lead to isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain, with the greatest coverage expected across the Southern mountains both today and Monday. With less available moisture, cape and shear, storm intensity will also lessen. Model soundings are indicating more inverted v profiles also indicating a lesser heavy rain threat as well. Further east, soundings are also indicating capped profiles, as temperatures aloft continue to warm. With less convection and cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be warmer than yesterday, though still below seasonal levels in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains, and mainly in the 60s across the higher terrain. Temperatures continue to warm into Monday, with highs back around seasonal levels in the 80s across the plains and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Air mass continues to dry out a bit on Tuesday as mid level nly flow strengthens slightly. Thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated and limited to over/near the high terrain, best chances again over the srn Sangres near the NM border. NBM guidance continues to run a little too high for pops given the pattern, and trimmed back chances 5-10 percent at many locations, though won't be too surprised if we end up with very little storm activity Tue/Tue evening. Cold front drops south through the plains on Wed, though model trends over the past couple days continue to point toward a weaker front, with less cool air and moisture than previously expected. At this point, will still go with at least a modest upturn in storm chances Wed afternoon/evening as front passes, though have to acknowledge that at least a few ensemble members and the 31/00z run of the GFS have trended drier with little precip indicated. Increased mixing with the front will likely offset low level cold advection during the day Wed, with max temps similar if not a degf or two warmer than Tue numbers. Model spread increases Thu- Sat as many models/ensembles are now mainly dry for Thu as any cool/moist air retreats on the plains. Secondary cold front possible late Thu into Fri may then ramp up convective chances into the weekend, with storms aided by potential mid-level moisture surge as flow takes on a more sw direction.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 534 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) the next 24 hours. There is a low chance (10-20 percent) of a shower and brief gusty outflow winds at KALS this afternoon, but confidence is low that one will hit the terminal. Overall, winds will generally be under 12 kts, with nly flow at KCOS and KPUB this morning, switching to an ely component after 20z, before returning to light downslope after 03z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.