textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions with gusty winds and marginal humidity values along the New Mexico border today.

- A storm system will move across Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread moderate to heavy precipitation, including snow down to 5-6 kft.

- Drier conditions and a quick warm up return Thursday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Currently...upper level energy moving through a flat upper ridge is leading to widespread cloud cover across western Colorado. Temperatures are mild with 50s and 60s across the Plains, with a few degrees of cooling expected through sunrise, with morning lows in the 40s. Out west, as the upper wave approaches, showers will develop along the Continental Divide by daybreak. Snow will be up high, above 10 kft, with spotty low accumulations possible.

Today and tonight...there will be a couple of concerns for this afternoon across southern Colorado. The first is the potential for spotty, critical fire weather conditions for Huerfano, Las Animas and Baca Counties this afternoon. Winds will be gusty, to near 30 mph, however, humidity values will be marginal near 15 percent. Given the marginal humidity values and recent rainfall, opted to not issue fire weather highlights at this time. But, use caution with any outdoor burning activities today down south.

The other main concern will be precipitation chances for this afternoon and overnight. The embedded upper wave will track from western Colorado, northeast into northern Colorado this afternoon. Showers along the Continental Divide will spread northeast into the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado by early evening. In addition, a cold front will arrive on the Palmer Divide by late afternoon, and push south across the Plains during the evening hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures this afternoon will be toasty, with 70s and 80s across the Plains, and 60s for the San Luis Valley.

Models in good agreement with precipitation tracking northeast overnight, mostly impacting areas north of Highway 50. Cloud cover will spread across the Plains overnight as moisture returns and low level flow turns more northeasterly. Showers could fill in across the Plains late tonight, but guidance has it holding off until after sunrise. Overnight lows will be cool with upper 30s to lower 40s across the lower elevations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Models overall remain in good agreement through the extended period, with differences in the surface low development Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Tuesday into Wednesday...the upper pattern will feature moisture moving across Colorado from the Desert Southwest during this period, with a cold upper trough digs south by Wednesday. The main model differences from previous runs has been the out of phase nature of the current upper pattern compared to yesterday. In addition, the surface low that previous solutions had is much weaker with the current cycle, all of which will impact precipitation amounts.

Models are in agreement with precipitation chances increasing Tuesday morning across southern Colorado, was moisture moves overhead, and low level upslope flow deepens across the Plains. Periods of light rainfall are forecast across the Plains during the day Tuesday, with highs in the 40s to 50s. Snow levels will be high, initially above 9 kft through Tuesday afternoon, with snow focused across the Central Mountains.

By Tuesday night, the upper trough to the north will track south into Colorado, with much colder air advecting south. As mentioned, a surface low, albeit weaker with this cycle, looks to form near Trinidad and track east along the New Mexico border into Wednesday morning. One thing this low will do is drawn south colder air, with overnight lows Tuesday into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Precipitation will also become more focused from the Palmer Divide, south along the Eastern Mountains and Raton Mesa. While QPF amounts have come down a bit, most areas will likely see half inch to inch QPF amounts through Wednesday afternoon. As for this on Wednesday, they continue to trend down, with most areas now in the 30s to lower 40s. Have a feeling guidance is still a bit too warm, and this will impact precipitation types and snowfall amounts. Snow levels will likely fall to near 5 kft Tuesday night into Wednesday, with accumulations most likely above 6 kft. Issued Winter Weather Advisories for the Central Mountains, Teller County, northern El Paso County and the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, where heavier snow is expected. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and trees have leafed out. This could lead to widespread tree damage across northern El Paso County. Power outages could also occur with heavy snow on power lines. The commute Wednesday morning could be difficult across Monument Hill.

Models in good agreement with precipitation winding down Wednesday evening, clearing the area by Thursday morning. Cold temperatures are forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with most areas on the Plains in the 20s. Those with sensitive plants and exposed sprinklers should take precautions to protect them.

Thursday through Sunday...upper ridging will build across the western states and the upper trough shifts east, with broad northwesterly flow setting up across Colorado. This will lead to a quick warm up with 70s and 80s during this period. A cold front and upper system may be possible over the weekend, with a few thunderstorms across the region Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 540 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

KCOS: VFR conditions are expected through a majority of this TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing near the end as ceilings lower. Winds will remain light early in the TAF period, though will quickly increase and become gusty mid afternoon as a cold front pushes southward. Along with that, showers early in the day may cause gusty outflow winds. These showers may also bring brief periods of rain and reduced visibility. Beyond all of that, mid to high level clouds will be in place most of this TAF period, with ceilings steadily dropping throughout the day, with MVFR ceilings developing tonight into Tuesday morning.

KPUB: VFR conditions are expected through a majority of this TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing near the end as ceilings lower. Winds will remain light early in the TAF period, though will quickly increase and become gusty mid morning as gap flow winds develop and impact the TAF site. In addition, a cold front is expected to push southward late afternoon, bringing a sudden northerly shift in winds, with gusty winds persisting after FROPA. Beyond that, while dry conditions are expected, a shower impacting the TAF site can not be ruled out this afternoon, which could bring a brief period of rain and reduced visibility, though confidence in this scenario is very low, less than 20%. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will be in place most of this TAF period, with ceilings steadily dropping during the evening hours, with MVFR ceilings developing by Tuesday morning.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light through the early part of this TAF period, though will increase in magnitude this afternoon as diurnal mixing develops, with gusty winds to around 30 knots anticipated. Winds will again lessen during the evening hours as mixing stops. Beyond that, dry conditions with persistent mid to high level clouds is expected.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ058-060. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ072>075-079>082. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ084.