textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the plains into early this evening, some strong to severe storms possible near the Kansas border, while snow showers and blowing snow continue along the Continental Divide until midnight - Critical fire weather conditions persist into this evening across the southern tier of the plains, with critical conditions potentially returning to the San Luis Valley and srn I-25 corridor Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday into Wednesday, mainly along and north of Highway 50

- Increased chances for heavier and more widespread rainfall from Wednesday night into Friday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Upper wave crossing Colorado today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms spilling from the mountains across the plains at mid-afternoon. Storm strength has been limited by rather meager moisture and instability, as CAPE values over the high terrain and along I-25 are only in the 200-400 J/KG range. As storms move across the plains, models develop a few pockets of higher instability (CAPE 400-800 J/KG) toward the KS border, suggesting at least a couple strong to severe storms will be possible, as 0-6km bulk shear is over 60 kts. Over the mountains, have seen some heavier snow showers above about 9000 feet, and also some strong winds (gusts 25-25 kts), which combined were producing areas of blowing snow and low visibility, especially along the Continental Divide. As a result, will keep winter weather advisory going until midnight, and have added eastern Lake County, as some bursts of heavier snow are likely over Fremont Pass into the evening. Have already seen winds increase substantially behind initial line of convection moving onto the southeast plains, with sw winds gusting over 40 kts already over the srn I-25 corridor (Walsenburg/Trinidad), and expect strong winds to push eastward onto the southeast plains through the afternoon into the evening before subsiding.

Overnight, precip chances fade away at most locations during the evening, with just some snow showers lingering over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide after midnight. Clearing skies, decreasing winds and drier air will lead to chilly overnight lows, with most mountains and high valleys below freezing, while plains/I-25 corridor drop into the 30s. On Monday, weak cold front on the plains and secondary upper wave lifting out of the Great Basin will lead to another round of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms, favoring mainly the northern half of the area. While precip amounts look mainly light, a few models point to areas along the Palmer Divide having at least the potential for some slightly heavier (quarter inch) rainfall by late Monday evening. Will have to watch the srn I-25 corridor and Walsenburg area for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, as cooler air may mix eastward in the afternoon with some modest gap flow developing. Max temps Mon look to cool just a few degf on the plains with weak front and switch to ely winds, while mountain temps stay relatively unchanged.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Area remains under fairly brisk wly flow aloft Tue/Wed, as broad upper level jet stays over the southern Rockies. A couple weak waves will bring isolated to scattered convection to the region both days, though forcing looks weak and moisture rather sparse, suggesting precip amounts through Wed afternoon will remain light. Will have to again watch the San Luis Valley and southern I-25 corridor for critical fire weather conditions both days, while areas farther north and east should stay moist enough to avoid any fire highlights. Only minor day to day changes in max temps expected, while lows remain rather chilly, with readings below freezing over the mountains and high valleys, mainly 30s on the plains.

Strong upper wave then drops south through the Rockies Wed night into Thu, while upper level low pressure deepens along the California coast. System should bring widespread precip to the area Wed night into Thu, with snow levels in the 7k-8k MSL range through the period. QPF of up to an inch possible by late Thu, heaviest amounts ern San Juans, ern mountains and I-25 corridor. Model differences on how quick/how far north will the California upper low eject become more pronounced Friday/Saturday, with ECMWF family of solutions in general a little farther north and wetter than GFS. NBM pops look to somewhat split the difference, and look fine for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Winds have decreased at all three terminals but will remain intermittently gusty from the west at KALS and KPUB overnight with gusts up to 25 mph at times. With strong winds just off the surface, KPUB will see the potential for LLWS until the steadier stronger NW winds spread down into the TAF site around 14z. Northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph will return to the KPUB and KCOS terminals between 14 and 15z. Afternoon winds will shift out of the southeast at 10-15 kts for KCOS and KPUB, while KALS see gusty southwest winds 15-25 kts spread back into the terminal. -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible at KCOS and KPUB bringing erratic gusty outflow winds up to 30 kts until the front pushes back westward into both terminals in the evening bring east to northeast surface winds into the overnight hours. This will spread MVFR to even IFR stratus into KCOS and KPUB around or just after the tail end of the 24 hr TAF valid period. -KT

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Red Flag Warning continues until 8 pm this evening for areas along the NM/OK border, as strong push of west winds and dry air moves through the I-25 corridor and across the plains. Winds then diminish late this evening, while humidity improves. Elevated fire weather conditions possible over the southern I-25 corridor Mon, mainly in the gap flow region from La Veta Pass through Walsenburg. No highlight in place at this point as area of strong winds is rather small and humidity marginal, though will monitor for possible updates. Elevated to critical conditions possible both Tues and Wed along the srn I-25 corridor and across the San Luis Valley, though haven't issued a watch for here yet as some questions about relative humidity remain, especially along I-25 where weak cold front and east winds could keep humidity above threshold, especially Wed.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ058- 060-068.