textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag warning issued for TODAY for a small part of the district

- Confidence continues to increase that dangerous ARCTIC air will affect the region starting late Thursday into Sunday

- Widespread light snow likely, It could be rather windy with very cold temps on the plains Friday.

- Best chance of widespread snow will be during the day Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 304 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Currently...

Clear skies prevailed across the region early this morning. Temps ranged in the 20s across the Plains with single digits in the center of the San Luis valley. Some L30s were noted over the valley floor in Chaffee County

Today...

Main concern is fire weather across parts of the district today. Area of concern in Teller, Fremont and the lower elevations of the Upper Arkansas River valley region as Tds continue to remain very low and winds are going to gust in the 25 to 35 mph range. At this time I do not believe any of the stronger winds will come onto the plains but some localized gusts coming out of the gap flow areas cant be ruled out.

Otherwise...another mild day across the region with mostly sunny skies and max temps in the U40s to M50s across the plains, San Luis Valley should see max temps in the 40-45F range

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 304 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday...

The cold air starts to infiltrate into the region. An initial subtle surge may come into the region during the early morning hours of Thursday across the far eastern plains and then wash out. As surface pressure increases off to our northeast, the colder air will push into the region and "back door" into our region during the late morning and especially the afternoon time periods. Max temps across the plains will likely occur during the late morning/early afternoon and then cool off as the remainder of the day progresses. It should remain dry across the region Thursday. The cool air will not get into the San Luis valley. Max temps will likely be in the 40s most of the plains with temps around 50 along the mtn/plains interface. Larger valleys will be in the 45-50F range. Upper to mid level clouds should steadily increase across the region as the day progresses.

By late THU afternoon and into the evening, low clouds will increase across the plains, and expect arctic air with low cigs across all of the plains by midnight.

Friday...

During the predawn hours, skies will likely be overcast all areas and pop chances will begin to increase all areas. A secondary surge of arctic air will push down across the plains and it will become WINDY across the plain, East winds of 20 to 40 mph will be possible during the afternoon time period, and these winds combined with teens and 20s along with light snow likely occurring over most of the region will make for a dangerous winter environment across the region. No winter hilites have been issued with this fcst package, but Cold weather hilites along with snow advisories will likely be needed with later forecast packages.

I should note that the San Luis valley and the upper Arkansas river valley will remain mild as the arctic air is rather shallow and will likely not make it above 8000 feet.

Friday night....

Very Cold with min temps readings in the negative 5 to positive 5 degree range. Winds will decrease somewhat, but it still will be breezy and Dangerous wind chills will continue across the all of the region. Snow will be ongoing across most of the region and the intensity may pickup somewhat especially over the mtns.

Saturday...

This day we will see the upward forcing over the region and best chance for more snow accumulations over the region. It is during this time that the highest probabilities of snow will be over the region (60-90%). ALL of the region will likely see snow fall. The overall heaviest snow will occur over the San Juans and the tops over the Sangres. Plains could see 0.5 to 2' late Fri nite into the day Saturday.

Saturday night...

Precip should diminish from late Saturday into Saturday evening. If we clear out and there is snow on the ground then we could see temps tank to well below zero F across the region. For now single digits cover the entire fcst area, but these temps could be significantly lower.

Sunday...

Temps will begin warm up, but expect temps to mainly remain below freezing across the fcst area, Best chance of some temps above freezing will be along the mtn/plains interface as some low level westerlies may begin to warm up in the downslope region.

Early next week...

Temps should quickly warm up as temps aloft quickly warm up and 40s should return to the region by Monday, with some 50s by Tuesday. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 424 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and diurnally driven.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ220>222.