textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple drier and warmer days for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Monsoon moisture returns late week into early next week with best chances for heavy rainfall over the mountains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 106 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Dry southwest flow over the area will bring warmer temperatures, some afternoon breezes in and near the mountains, and considerably less convective development today. The best chance of any showers/high based thunderstorms will be across the central mountains this afternoon and early evening. But overall, most areas will stay dry. With the breezier southwest winds in the afternoon, there runs the risk of some elevated fire weather conditions but RHs look to stay mostly above critical thresholds and wind gusts are not expected to be strong or persistent enough to meet critical fire weather conditions. High temperatures will rebound back into the lower to mid 90s across the plains, with mid 70s to mid 80s across the valleys and mid 50s to mid 60s for the higher mountains.

Another clear cool night expected tonight with temperatures dropping into the 30s for some of our mountain valley locations.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 106 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Thursday will be fairly similar to Wednesday under dry southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will warm a couple degrees over Wed with highs cresting in the upper 90s across eastern portions of the southeast plains. Any shower and thunderstorm chances stay to our south this day.

Monsoon moisture returns for Friday with the best chances across the southern mountains. A surface trough axis across the southeast plains may also have sufficient convergence for some thunderstorm development. Surface dew points are still relatively low (generally upper 30s to 40s mountains, to lower 50s eastern plains). Although the heavy rainfall risk will increase again as precipitable waters rebound back to 100-130% of normal, model soundings keep moisture fairly high based with gusty winds the primary risk, especially for northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.

Thunderstorm chances ramp up over the mountains for the weekend as the monsoon plume gets better established across southern CO. Southwest flow may pick up and entrain some tropical moisture from Marie which boosts precipitable waters to 140-170% of normal across southern CO, with the highest values across the mountains. This will put the risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the area if we can get within the stronger moisture fetch. Signals for heavier QPF appear stay to the west in ensemble means with Willow burn scar at a greater risk for flash flooding than Aspen Acres.

Precipitable waters and rain chances stay high for Monday then an upper trough passes by to the north and potentially disrupts the deeper monsoon moisture fetch to some degree, reducing thunderstorm chances slightly sometime early next week. On the whole, best rain chances will stay over the mountains with the Continental Divide seeing the greater precipitation accumulations. The plains will see almost daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms but lacking a strong signal for upslope flow, QPF may stay on the lighter side. There is some potential for a cool front to bring some post frontal upslope flow and an uptick in thunderstorms across the plains on Tuesday, but this signal is weaker in ensemble means, so will continue to carry generally isolated to scattered pops for the plains through the period until better confidence is gained. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 519 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, as drier air continues to spread into the Rockies with moderate southwest flow aloft. Breezy south to southwest winds at COS and ALS through the afternoon, with generally light diurnal wind regimes expected there after.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.