textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today with less wind and lower fire danger, then slightly cooler Sunday on the plains behind a weak cold front.

- Weather system on track to bring rain/high elevation snow to the region Tuesday into early Wednesday, though precipitation amounts look rather light at this point.

- More weather systems possible late week into next weekend, though track and intensity details still far from certain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Weakening mid/upper level northwest flow expected across the area today, and while relative humidity will remain low (10-15 percent), winds will be lighter than the past few days, limiting the fire danger at most locations. Mid level thermal ridge will be in place this afternoon over the plains, so even though mixing may be limited with weak flow aloft, it won't take much wind to boost max temps well into the 60s/70s at lower elevations, with 40s/50s in the mountains. Weak lee trough overnight will keep some modest downslope breezes going into Sunday morning, keeping east slope mins above freezing once again, while most mountains and valleys settle into the 20s. On the plains, cold front begins to back westward by early Sun morning, leading to winds becoming more easterly and increasing slowly in speed as we approach sunrise.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Cooler air backs westward toward the mountains Sunday morning, with easterly winds along and east of I-25 through the day. This, along with some increasing mid/upper level cloud cover should keep max temps several degf cooler than the past several days, with readings only in the 50s near the KS border. Western edge of the cooler air could erode a bit by Sun afternoon, with highs popping back into the 60s along I-25, though again suspect temp gradient Sun afternoon may end up tighter than current forecast, as blended guidance tends to over smooth things a bit. Some risk that we could end up even colder than forecast on the plains if mid/high level clouds are thick enough, as at least some, but not all MOS guidance is several degf colder than NBM. Any showers Sunday/Sunday night now look to stay mainly north of the region, with just some flurries/snow showers over the higher peaks of the central mountains expected. Cold air retreats on Monday as upper trough approaches, with highs climbing back to well above average levels at many locations. Could see enough wind to get elevated/briefly critical fire danger over the srn I-25 corridor Mon afternoon, and may need a fire weather headline at some point for the Walsenburg/Trinidad areas if subsequent model runs confirm the return of dry/windy conditions.

Models/ensemble solutions continue to converge with the track/strength of the next upper trough swinging through Colorado Tue/Wed, with a track generally through the middle of the state expected. Best forcing for heavier precip would appear to be over the northern half of CO, with mainly scattered showers Tue/Tue night over the southern half of the state. QPF amounts continue to fall, with WPC/NBM values below a quarter inch at most locations, heaviest in Teller County. Still wonder if we could get a surprise period of heavier convective precip Tue evening over the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region and perhaps the Wets, as mid level flow turns briefly nely and convective instability lingers, with a random assortment of deterministic runs occasionally putting a bullseye of heavier precip over the ern slopes. Forecast doesn't portray this scenario yet, but bears watching, especially as snow levels fall below 7000 feet Tue evening.

Quick warm up Wed/Thu as system departs, with max temps well above seasonal averages at all locations both days. Next piece of upper energy approaches the state on Friday, bringing cooler temps and at least a chance for precip, though model solutions for the end of the week into the weekend start to vary widely with the evolution of the western U.S. trough, leading to a rather low confidence forecast at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1018 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and diurnally driven.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.