textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow continues over the San Juans and the southern Sangres through tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms remain possible for the next few afternoons, mainly over and near the higher terrain, with an overall warming and drying trend for Saturday through Monday.

- Probabilities for wetting rains on the plains and accumulating snowfall for the high country continue to increase for the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Models continue to bring a lobe of shortwave energy through the trough and into the Four Corners region throughout the day today. This feature is expected to keep chances for showers and thunderstorms over and near the high country and the southern plains, with snowfall over the higher peaks of the San Juans and the southern Sangres. After a bit of a lull this morning, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop over and near the mountains early this afternoon, with highest coverage over the San Luis Valley and the southern I-25 corridor. Snow levels remain above 8000 feet or so, with precipitation falling as snow for peak above this elevation this afternoon. Forcing and upslope will be best favored over the eastern slopes of the San Juans this afternoon and this evening, where a quick 3 to 6 inches of snowfall looks to be possible by tomorrow morning. Snowfall continues over the southern Sangres as well, so have left this area in a Winter Storm Warning through Saturday morning with this package. That said, snowfall decrease significantly towards midnight tonight as the system weakens and dips south, so our Sangres may end up being dropped from warning status earlier than currently forecast. Speaking of early clearing, clear skies and weak winds will lead to very efficient cooling tonight, which has led to the issuance of a widespread Frost Advisory for our plains. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s are likely across all of our lower elevation locations tonight, which may be harmful to sensitive outdoor plants!

Tomorrow..

Clear skies will help us to warm quickly in the morning, with highs climbing back into the near normal range by afternoon. Temperatures are expected to range from 60s for mountain valleys, the Pikes Peak region, and the southern I-25 corridor, to 70s for the rest of our plains under clear skies and light winds. Most of the area will be dry and sunny tomorrow, but our western mountain will keep chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon. Light snow will be possible for the highest peaks of the La Garitas and the San Juans, though accumulations are expected to be minimal. With ridging building overhead Saturday into Sunday, overnight lows look to remain mild, near seasonal, and frost- free for our lower elevations heading into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Sunday..

As the ridge scoots overhead Sunday our temperatures jump up another 10 or so degrees from Saturday, bringing us back into the warmer than normal range. Mountain valleys look to stay in to middle to upper 60s, with all of our plains well into the 70s and low 80s. Models keep us in the northern periphery of the ridge as it decays a bit on Sunday, which leads to gustier winds over the central mountains and through our gap flows. At this time, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. Depending on available moisture in the larger scale southwest flow aloft, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could also be possible over and near the higher terrain Sunday afternoon.

Monday Onwards..

Models bring moist southwest flow further into our area by Monday, allowing for better coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the high country. Daytime highs remain warmer than normal on Monday for now, with models bringing a cold front in sometime late Monday or Tuesday from a trough passing to our northeast. As the system to our southwest gets dragged into the larger scale troughing, we look to see the benefits in terms of another round of cooler and more active weather towards the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe of next week. For now, wetting rains for the plains and accumulating snowfall for the high country look to be possible for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Models develop another ridge to our west by Thursday, keeping us in northwest flow through the end of our work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Relatively quiet at the start of the period, with VFR conditions in place and any precipitation development staying confined to the higher terrain. This general trend should continue, though afternoon showery development is appearing likely around both COS and ALS, with PUB staying drier. Given the lower coverage expected today, have maintained the VCSH for both sites and think this should suffice today. VFR ceilings develop again today and don't anticipate any additional lower ceilings through the period at this time. If clearing occurs earlier tonight at ALS, will need to monitor for the potential of redeveloping low ceilings by early Saturday morning. Confidence is low on this possibility at this time, and so have left out any mention.

Again, winds will be diurnally driven, but with a low chance of any stronger or erratic winds with the shower development this afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ075. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ083>089-093>099.