textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers, thunderstorms, and snowfall continue over the high country this afternoon, spreading into the plains mainly north of Highway 50 through the evening and overnight hours.

- We remain on track for wetting rains and accumulating snowfall for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highest snowfall rates and impacts expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the Pikes Peak region.

- We clear out throughout Wednesday evening and overnight, leading to the widespread potential for a hard freeze Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Showers and thunderstorms have pushed into the Continental Divide, with lightning present over the La Garitas as of 1230. West winds have stayed gusty through the morning hours as we sit in the northern periphery of the ridge. KCOS is still observing gusts to around 30 mph, and both the Pueblo and Trinidad ASOS sites have kept gusts to around 25 mph up this hour as well. Temperatures are in the 60s and 70s on the plains, and middle and high clouds have continued to stream in as well. Both Walsenburg and Springfield have come close to critical fire weather conditions this morning with humidity values falling into the mid teens, but humidity values are expected to begin to climb through the afternoon. Alamosa is currently at 29%, and Trinidad is at 23%. As the low to our southwest continues to push onshore over California this afternoon, moist southwesterly flow increases over our region. Shortwave energy in this moist southwest aloft will keep showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the daytime hours. A cold front moves through our plains this evening as well, helping to spread chances for showers and thunderstorms across the I-25 corridor and into our plains through the overnight hours. Best chances for precipitation will remain along and north of Highway 50 through the overnight hours, with some light snow over the central mountains tonight into tomorrow morning as well. Overnight lows on the plains remain close to seasonal normals with temperatures dipping down into the 30s and 40s.

Tomorrow and Wednesday..

Models are coming into more agreement with the interaction between two systems Tuesday and Wednesday. The two systems in question are a low over the desert southwest, and a broad trough to our northeast. The GFS and now the NAM both show the southwest low interacting with the trough for a bit on Tuesday, before splitting back off and diving south Tuesday night. This solution continues to influence the NBM and high res model guidance, with an overall decrease in qpf over our region as subtropical moisture gets shunted back southwards. The EC is starting to come along with this solution now as well, though the decrease in subtropical moisture is not as pronounced yet. With the southwest low getting shunted southwards, the influence of the trough is beginning to dominate our forecast progression more and more. This means that while areas south of highway 50 are ultimately forecast to see less moisture, the trough is dragging in colder and colder temperatures, which has resulted in higher snow totals for areas north of Highway 50. For now, Teller and northern El Paso County remain in Winter Weather Advisories, though both areas have seen a marked increase in expected snow totals due to the increased influence of the northern trough and its colder temperature solutions. The Pikes Peak region may need to be upgraded to warnings as details become more clear. At this time though, significant melting is expected throughout the event, and snowfall is expected to be much higher than actual snow depth. Impacts from heavy, wet snow are likely, which may lead to downed trees and power outages. Travel impacts may also be possible once road temperatures are overcome by snowfall rates, especially for the Wednesday morning commute over the Palmer Divide, and throughout Tuesday and Wednesday over the high country. Rain increases in coverage and intensity throughout Tuesday, switching to snow along with the mountain adjacent plains and the Palmer Divide overnight Tuesday. Temperatures will be near freezing Wednesday morning, which may lead to a changeover to snow for most of the plains, though it is expected to be short-lived and mostly melting off quickly given warmer ground temperatures. Highs look to climb into the 40s Wednesday afternoon, which will turn precip types back to a mix and eventually to rain as we warm back up above freezing. Overall, more impacts from downed trees that have already leafed out are expected than travel concerns on the plains with this event at this time. Mountain driving conditions are likely to be hazardous though, with snow covered slick roads, blowing snow, and degraded visibilities across much of the high country.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Thursday Onwards..

We clear out from north to south Wednesday night into Thursday morning, while sitting in strong northerly flow aloft. Models paint low to mid 20s for overnight lows Wednesday into Thursday morning, which has prompted the issuance of Freeze Watches across the region. Hard freeze conditions may be possible depending on the amount of clearing and strength of the incoming northerly cold push. Plants that survive the near freezing temperatures and wet snowfall on Tuesday and Wednesday may still be at risk Thursday morning with incoming hard freeze conditions.

We remain in northwest flow aloft throughout Thursday, which looks to keep us in the near seasonal normal range for daytime highs. Temperatures climb back into the 60s for mountain valleys, the Pikes Peak region, and the southern I-25 corridor, with low to mid 70s elsewhere on the plains. Mostly dry conditions are likely for Thursday, with light winds on the plains and slightly breezier winds over portions of the high country. We warm up back into the warmer than normal range for Friday and Saturday's temperatures as northwest flow continues. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain possible for Friday and Saturday as well, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Models continue to hint at another cold frontal passage and wave embedded in northwest flow around the Saturday timeframe, which would bring temperatures back down closer to seasonal normals for Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR cigs will drop into the IFR to even LIFR category for KCOS and KPUB by Tue morning as a front drops southward this evening and clouds and -SHRA fill in behind it. Temperatures stay warm enough for all rain precipitation types but may switch over to snow at KCOS later Tue evening which could bring some slushy snow accumulations of an inch or two Tue evening. KPUB could see a -SHRASN mix towards Tue evening but any brief accumulations would stay limited to grassy surfaces.

KALS will see VFR cigs dropping overnight into Tue morning with -SHRA possible beginning early Tue morning. Cigs should stay VFR. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ058-060-063-076. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ072>075-078>082-087. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ084.