textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue each afternoon through mid-week.

- Most storms near the mountains will be dry, with gusty outflow winds and lightning that may cause wildfire issues. Heavy rainfall could also pose flash flooding concerns over burn scar areas.

- A much warmer and drier pattern setting up for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Today and tonight...

Flow aloft will be weak today, and more northerly than the last few days. This should tie most of the afternoon convection to the higher terrain, particularly our more eastern mountains. Low-level moisture will still be lacking, and without any larger-scale forcing, storms will be relatively weak and high-based. Main impact concerns will be gusty outflow winds, to around 40 mph, along with lightning and related fire starts. Wetting rains will be few and far between, but if a stronger shower does move over an ongoing fire or recent burn scar, flash flooding will be a concern as well. Highs will be a bit warmer today as well, with 80s over the high valleys and mid-90s to low-100s over the eastern plains.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Extended forecast remains on track, with good model agreement through the rest of this week. Moisture will continue increasing over the region through about Wednesday, as high pressure and weak southwest winds aloft funnel in some high mid-level PWATs. Showers will be scattered over the plains and a bit more widespread over and near the higher terrain, both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Low- level moisture will still be a bit lacking, meaning that gusty outflow winds will be our primary impact concern from storms. Lightning may also pose risks for fire starts. While widespread heavy rain isn't expected, any storm that drops precipitation on a new burn scar could result in flash flooding, due to poor moisture absorption into the ground. Meanwhile, temperatures remain mostly steady, near or slightly above seasonal levels.

Models remain in good agreement when looking at later this week into the weekend. Broad high pressure will start building in from the west, bringing in hotter temperatures and weak flow aloft. After one more day of scattered precip on Thursday, the region will quickly dry out. NBM temperatures show us climbing well above seasonal levels, with increasing likelihood of the plains reaching into the triple digits by Sunday. Fuels will certainly dry out as RH drops, but the absence of any gusty winds should limit any widespread fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today, though showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon bringing shifting gusty outflow winds into KALS in the late afternoon and early evening. Clouds will increase at KCOS and KPUB but thunderstorms appear to stay more confined to the mountains to the west of both terminals keeping winds southeasterly at both sites during the afternoon. There is a low chance that KCOS could see a northerly wind shift from outflows over Teller county in the evening, though confidence in this scenario is low and have keep winds from a southwest direction for now. Otherwise, winds will become light and terrain driven late this evening into the overnight hours with some persistent VFR mid/high level remnant cloud cover. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.