textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture strengthens slightly through most of next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region.

- Flooding and flash flooding will be possible each day over the Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars, urban areas, and over regions with saturated soils.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorm coverage will continue to be more isolated late this afternoon and evening. The primary risks will be gusty outflow winds of up to 40 MPH - so keep an eye out for virga which would be an indicator of strong winds. Underneath the core of the thunderstorm will be locally heavy rainfall. At this point in time, there is no hail in the forecast. As for flash flooding risks this afternoon, it is fairly low - one cannot rule out an isolated storm that develops over the burn scar in which we'll have to issue a Flash Flood Warning, but the chances are low (<20%).

Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 60s across the plains and the 50s over mountain valleys.

The stronger monsoonal tap returns once again tomorrow as the upper level high pressure center building today compresses allowing a westerly moist flow reach Colorado. The main question is if to issue a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar. I cannot say right now with 50% certainty or higher that the burn scar will have a flash flood tomorrow, therefore I will hold off on the Watch for this forecast cycle. Check back with the overnight crew.

High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s across the plains and in the upper 80s to low 90s over the mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Monsoon moisture will be present throughout most of the week. Sunday afternoon and evening has the strongest flooding signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar with enough confidence for thunderstorm development further south across the region. The 500hPa high is compressed enough in response to a wave passing to the north of the high to allow these storms to develop. So keep an eye out for a Flash Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon. Monday through Wednesday has a lot of similarities, however. The high is centered south of Colorado and allows that monsoonal moisture over the west to advect over southern Colorado, so there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over our mountains, mountain valleys, and plains. We'll need to be on higher alert for flooding and flash flooding over urban areas, regions with saturated soils, and over our burn scars, including the Aspen Acres burn scar.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Lingering convection across the eastern plains finally starting to diminish as of 06z, while still affecting KPUB with E-NE surface winds gusting to 30 kts. Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions across the forecast area overnight, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

Brought in VCTS for KALS and KCOS starting around 19z-20z tomorrow, with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 21z-03z. For KPUB, mentioned VCTS starting at 23z with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 00z-05z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.