textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds over the high country overnight and through the early morning hours.

- Strong/damaging winds over the mountains and I-25 Corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening, with widespread high fire danger on the plains.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible again on Thursday, and moreso for Friday on the plains.

- Occasional windy snow showers over the central mountains Wednesday and again Saturday, though snowfall amounts look light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently...West to northwest flow aloft continued across the region this afternoon, with one wave of mid and high level cloudiness exiting the state, and another starting to push into the west. Westerly downslope winds and plenty of sun have helped boost temps up into record to near record levels for much of the plains, with Pueblo setting a new record for the day and colorado Springs getting close. As of 1 PM temps have climbed into the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to around 70F for the plains.

Tonight...An approaching upper level Pacific system will push into the Pacific NW tonight, while the leading edge of the upper jet noses into the Great Basin. The pressure gradient aloft tightens and westerly flow begins to strengthen across the higher terrain overnight into the early morning hours tomorrow, leading to milder temps for the high terrain as well as the lee slopes or banana belt region. Overnight minimums will drop into the teens to perhaps single digits for the san Luis Valley, 20s for the Upper Arkansas River Valley, mid 20s to mid 30s for the much of the plains, and mid 30s to around 40F near the mts west of I-25.

Wednesday...The upper system quickly moves east across MT along the US/Canada border through the day, while the upper jet with a 170 kt core edges into western CO. Without going into too much detail, latest model guidance leans towards a much stronger event with a tightening gradient by midday over the higher terrain and adjacent plains producing a brute force high wind event, with the greatest winds likely to be in the 00z-10z time window. If the upper jet was scheduled to be a few hours earlier, this could a very, very bad fire weather event, but the way it is currently, the strongest winds will likely occur after the heat of the day when humidity levels are starting to recover. Regardless, it will be a heads up day for fire monitoring. Given the model trends, decided to go ahead and expand high wind highlights to all of the I-25 Corridor, much of Fremont County, the Wet Mts and the Wet Mt Valley starting at 21z and lasting through 10z. Finally, extended existing High Wind Warning until 10z as well to account for lasting winds and to make it cleaner. The high winds may not extend as far south as Trinidad and the southern border, but did not want to get too complicated with start times and areas.

One final note, with respect to snow across the central mts. Models do point towards a quick blast of 2 to 6 inches of snow for the highest elevations of Lake and Chaffee counties Wed aftn through the evening. The amounts are less than needed for any sort of highlight, but the strong winds will certainly produce areas of blowing and drifting snow, and reduced visibilities.

Plan on a warm and windy day tomorrow, with high temps across the plains once again around 20 degrees above seasonal normals. Highs will warm into upper 40s to mid 50s across the high valleys, and 60s to around 70F across the plains. Secure all lightweight outdoor items! Moore

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Upper jet moves overhead Wed evening, with strongest mid-level flow roughly 03z-09z, with pockets of 50-60 kt winds at 700mb, and some 100kt flags at 500mb. Still not seeing a classic mountain wave set-up with mountain top inversion/critical layer lacking, though shear profile does go neutral/weak reversed for period in the afternoon, before jet arrives and profile becomes strongly forward after 00z. Simple brute force mixing should get winds above 75 mph across the central mountains and over/near Pikes Peak, especially late afternoon/evening, and have upgraded the high wind watch to a warning for these areas. Farther east along I-25, lack of a pronounced wave and late arrival (after sunset) of the strongest winds aloft may limit wind potential somewhat, though with bora cold front racing south through the area in the evening, could get a quick burst of 50-60 mph winds right behind the front in the 8pm-2am timeframe. Will thus hold off on any expansion of high wind highlights to lower elevations, and let later shifts look take a look at new CAMs data later today. Have also upgraded the fire weather watch to a warning for Wed as winds will be gusty through Fremont County and along/east of I-25 for much of the day, and expanded it to include the Palmer Divide as well. A good deal of blended model guidance suggests RH threshold (15 percent) may be hard to reach as dewpoints stay in the 20s, but have seen at least a few models (especially ECMWF) showing afternoon dewpoints falling into the teens, leading to RH over much of the area in the lower/mid teens, which seems realistic given strong winds/mixing. Snow showers will return to the central mountains Wed afternoon and evening, and while snowfall amounts will be light (1-3 inches) travel could be difficult at times over higher mountain passes given combination of wind and blowing snow.

Much cooler Thursday, as cold front will be well south and mid- level temps fall through the day. Winds aloft stay strong, and with at least some shallow mixing, suspect we'll see some 30-45 mph gusts reappear, especially near the KS border. This raises the risk of critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon over the plains, as despite the cooler temps, dewpoints will crash into the single digits, keeping minimum relative humidity in the teens once again. Won't issue any highlight right now, but a fire weather watch may be needed if drying trend persists in the next few model runs. Warmer and breezy/windy on Fri, though with upper jet shifting northward, extreme winds look unlikely. Windiest on the plains, where deep mixing along the lee trough will boost wind speeds, and we may again have elevated to critical fire weather conditions at times, especially east of I-25. Slightly cooler (especially Sunday) and breezy over the weekend as fast westerly flow continues, then dry, warmer and still breezy early next week as upper level ridge builds over the Rockies.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 459 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds tonight will remain relatively light and variable for both sites. Through late tomorrow morning though, winds are expected to start increasing, with frequent gusts at or above 40 knots by mid afternoon. In addition, there may be a brief window during the late morning hours of some low level shear as stronger winds aloft start to push over the area. However, confidence is low (20%) in this at this time, so have left out of the TAF product itself. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of high level clouds is anticipated.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain light and variable overnight, with an increase in winds during tomorrow afternoon. While frequent higher wind gusts are not expected at this time, an occasional gusts up to around 20 knots will be possible during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of high level clouds is anticipated.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 3 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060-061-081-082. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ222- 226>237. High Wind Warning from 2 PM Wednesday to 3 AM MST Thursday for COZ077>080-083>088.