textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued hot with isolated to low-end scattered thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain today. Heat Advisory in place for El Paso and eastern Fremont counties.

- Precipitation chances start to increase Tuesday, then moreso for Wednesday into the weekend. Flash flood concerns increase for area burn scars.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...Very quiet night across the region this evening as high pressure overhead keeps much of the lower atmosphere subdued. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 50s for the high valleys and 60s for the plains, so most locations as of 10 PM have another 15 degrees of cooling to occur.

Today and Tonight...Very little change to the ongoing pattern for today, as high pressure centered over the region will produce a very hot day for the forecast area. Ongoing Heat Advisory in place for El Paso and eastern Fremont counties looks reasonable, as afternoon highs are expected to reach upper 80s to mid 90s for the high valleys, and mid 90s to lower 100s for the plains. However, with little to no cloud cover likely, decided to extend the time on the advisory by starting it a couple hours earlier, and running in until 8 PM. There are some spotty critical fire weather conditions continuing to develop near the Aspen Acres Fire. There is not enough areal coverage to warrant a highlight at this time from the WFO, but onsite IMET will monitor. Finally, it will be another day of isolated convection over the mts, with perhaps low-end scattered chances across the central mts which could affect the Willow Fire area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tuesday...Upper ridge axis shifts slightly to the east, which allows a weak front to drop south across the eastern plains, with moist easterly flow pushing back into eastern CO. This shift also allows a gradual increase in moisture advection up across the Desert SW and into western CO. Latest numerical guidance does not indicate any cooling, in fact high temps stay nearly the same as Monday forecast. However, this pattern shift will allow a slow increase in precipitation chances across the higher terrain, with isolated showers spilling over onto the I-25 Corridor through the late afternoon and evening. As precip chances go up, so does the concern for flash flooding potential across area burn scars. Feel that both the Willow and the Aspen Acres Fires will need to be monitored closely by late afternoon into the evening. Though forecast QPF is not impressive, one over-performing storm could create a dangerous situation. Plan on highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the high valleys, and mid 90s to lower 100s for the plains.

Wednesday through Friday...Long range model trends indicate a rather strong upper shortwave crossing the Rocky Mt region Wed into Thu, then the upper ridge builds back overhead starting Fri. Looking at the 1000-500 mb RH, there is an impressive slug of moisture streaming up across the Four Corners and then across the Rockies through Thu, lending some confidence to the likely/categorical pops models are spitting out for essentially all of the higher terrain into Fri morning. Temps will remain hot, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms significantly increase starting Wed and continue into the weekend. The threat of flash flooding over area burn scars becomes much more of a concern starting Wed. Currently, Fri is the "coolest" day, with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...As the ridge builds back overhead, it looks like moisture trapped under the high will recirculate each day, fueling afternoon and evening activity. Temps climb back up to around 90F for the high valleys, and mid 90s to low 100s for the plains, with scattered to likely pops for all of the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor. Moore

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 515 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Less convection is expected this afternoon, with the best coverage along and west of the ContDvd. Winds at the terminals will again be breezy east to southeast for the afternoon and evening hours, becoming generally light diurnal drainage overnight.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>085.