textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, quiet weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with continued warmer than normal temperatures.

- Higher impact winter system possible for the Thursday into Friday timeframe, with snow for the high country and mainly rain forecast for the plains at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 206 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Currently...An upper low was pushing east into the NE panhandle this afternoon, and a tight pressure gradient wrapping around on the back side of the low coupled with a 90 kt upper jet was producing widespread strong and gusty west winds across the state. Gusts of 45- 55 mph were reported, though most gusts were in the 30-40 mph range. Light snow along the Continental Divide has dwindled as of 1 PM, while high temps have warmed into the mid 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s all the way to around 70F for the I- 25 Corridor and eastern plains.

Tonight and Tuesday...The upper low to the northeast of CO will continue to push east and out of the area over the next 24 hours, while the next upper low to affect the state will track south along the southern CA coastline. Temporary ridging aloft across the Four Corners tonight will then transition to a steady southwest flow into western CO tomorrow.

What this means is that the strong gusty westerly winds across the forecast area currently are expected to diminish between 5 and 7 PM this eve, leading to dry conditions, lighter winds and a smattering of high level clouds overnight. Minimum temps tonight are forecast to cool into the teens and 20s for the high valleys, and 30s across the plains. Plan on partly sunny skies tomorrow, with highs at or slightly above seasonal normals with upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 320 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Tuesday Night and Wednesday..

Overnight lows on Tuesday night will again be cooler than tonight but still a few degrees warmer than normal, especially for our southeast plains. Southwest flow aloft will begin to increase as our next low deepens over southern California early Wednesday morning. Ensemble guidance suggests that this next system will come onshore by Wednesday evening, though impacts will be scarce for southeast Colorado by that time. Our southeast mountains may see some southwesterly gusts to 30 mph or so through Wednesday afternoon, and downsloping winds will lead to warmer temperatures for Wednesday as well. Highs will be closer to the 10-12 degrees warmer than normal mark for Wednesday, with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s for mountain valleys, low 60s for the Pikes Peak region, mid to upper 60s for much of the plains, and possibly some low 70s for our far eastern plains. Our far southwest mountains and the higher peaks of the San Juans may begin to see some light snowfall through the late evening hours of Wednesday as our next low approaches, though accumulations would not be expected with this current track and timing.

Thursday and Friday..

Though models still consistently show a system coming through in the Thursday into Friday timeframe, there is still a lot of run-to-run and model-to-model disagreement. In previous runs, GFS members were the most aggressive and showed a closed low with ideal placement just to our south. Now that model is now the further north and is a weaker, more open wave solution, though it does close the low off again as it moves into Kansas Friday morning. Overall, it does seem likely that we will see a cool down, and meaningful moisture and precipitation chances at least for the high country. Heavy snow may be possible for some of our mountain ranges, and accumulating snow may also be possible for the Palmer Divide and the Raton Mesa, especially for Friday morning if current forecast timing and track remain consistent. Timing and track will of course be the determining factor for our plains forecast in general, but at this time the system looks warm enough to keep precipitation chances falling mostly as rain throughout the duration of the event for the majority of the plains. Current trends point towards highs in the 50s for much of the area on Thursday and 40s for Friday.

Saturday Onwards..

For now, our weekend looks to be a bit of a lull between systems. Of course, either system could speed up or slow down and change that, but for now, our weekend looks to bring near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures, and mainly dry, quiet weather. Models hint at another system coming in from our southwest through the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1021 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. For this TAF period, winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots. With that said, a slight increase in winds is expected tomorrow afternoon, as modest mixing develops. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of high level clouds will continue.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.