textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash flood threat for today for the Aspen Acres (AA) burn scar

- Marginal severe storms today across the eastern plains.

- From Thu into early next week expect afternoon and evening storms with temps several degrees above normal, warmest days will be the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1201 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Main concern in the short term will be the chance of flash flooding over the Aspen Acres burn scar. A cool front has passed the area and upslope flow has commenced. Dwpts were 61F at the office at midnight Wednesday. With the NW flow at mid levels and southeasterly flow at low levels, modest shear will be in place and marginal severe weather will be possible from the mtns/plains interface eastward to KS later this afternoon. More importantly, any storms which form over the mtns/plains interface will move Southeast with the NW'erly flow aloft. This could allow for training thunderstorms to move over the AA burn scar tomorrow afternoon. Based on current data, the best chance for flash flooding tomorrow will be from 2 pm to 8pm tomorrow. As stated above, there may be more than 1 round of flash flooding tomorrow over the AA burn scar.

SPC has the area under marginal risk for svr, while WPC has us under marginal for Flash Flooding.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

From Thursday into early next week, the ridge aloft will generally remain just south of CO. It will wobble a bit to the west and east, but overall it will generally be over the region. Moisture is trapped under this ridge, and this will allow for a pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity over the region during the period. Overall best chance of storms will be over the higher terrain, with more isolated to scattered storms over the plains. The warmest days will likely occur this weekend, where temps will be at or around 100F over parts of the plains.

Given the fact that we will likely see storms over the higher terrain each day, flash flooding can not be ruled out over the burn scars. Any storm which produces locally heavy rain which develops over the burn scars will have the capability of producing flash flooding. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area, starting mid- afternoon and lasting into this evening.

For KALS, left passing -TSRA as a PROB30, due to more scattered coverage in the valley. However, will need to monitor closely for outflow winds.

At KCOS, passing thunderstorms are more likely, especially between 21-01Z, with lower confidence later this evening. Outflow winds are expected to be 40 knots, but an isolated gust could potential reach higher if a stronger storm passes by.

For KPUB, storms will move off the mountains mid-afternoon, heading southeast. Coverage will be more scattered than at KCOS, but convection is expected to linger in the area a bit longer, until at least 03Z or so. Outflow will be a primary impact, though if a storm does move over, expect brief periods of heavy rainfall.

Once convection dissipates in the area, generally by 03Z or so, lighter winds will remain at the terminals overnight, with VFR conditions persisting into Thursday.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086.