textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- 5 to 10 degree warm up today; T-storms few and far between.

- interior mountain rain chances increasing Monday, and especially Tuesday, Lightning started fires possible mtns.

- Confidence from Wednesday onward is not all that high as Omega blocking pattern develops at end of fcst period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1210 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

The weather this period will be impacted by a compact closed low that will drop into Nevada by 00 UTC Wednesday and then slowly lift northeast by late week with the overall mid level flow developing into an Omega pattern.

Thunderstorms will be few and far between today across the region, and any thunder will be high based with gusty winds possible. Storms today will be scattered in the central mtns and Lagaritas, with mainly isolated activity over the remainder of the higher terrain. Over the plains, it will be mainly dry. There may be two or three storms over the far southeast plains later today.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

For Monday, mid level flow switches to southerly in advance of a shortwave over the greater Las Vega area. This will start to push some moisture into the mtns along the CONTDVD, and especially the southwest slope of the San Juans. This is both good news and bad news, it is good news because the interior mtns need the precip ans it has been quite dry over the interior per drought charts, but it is bad news as there is likely to be a ramp up in lightning activity over the mountain regions; and new fire starts will be possible. Min RH values Monday afternoon will be in the 15 to 25% range over the valleys and 25 to 35 percent range higher elevations. Monday should be the hottest day over the region this entire fcst period with U80s to L90s plains and U70s valleys.

Tuesday, It will be noticeably cooler of the mtns as temps will be in the 40 mtn tops and 60s valleys. Min RH values are expected to be much higher region-wide with 30-40% valleys and 50-60 percent mtns. Pops will be categorical nearly all of the higher terrain, although qpf values are not expected to be all that high Tuesday; mainly 0.10- 0.20" higher mtns with les than 0.10 valleys. Lots of clouds will be likely.

By Wednesday, closed low will still be quite wound up and spinning over the NV/CA area. Southerly flow, relatively light, will still be over the region. However drier air to the south of the closed low will start to rotate around and push into the western sections of the fcst area. However the eastern section may still have some moisture to play with, and it appears we are trending a little wetter over the eastern half of the fcst area for Wednesday. The driest areas for Wednesday will be the I-25 corridor while the interior mtns should see sctd/likely showers with scattered showers over the far eastern plains.

Thursday...Upper low will begin to push northeast. Drier air will likely advect northward and we should see a decrease in precip chances over the region. Most of the precip with the closed low will be in the immediate vicinity over the mid level low center

Friday...flow ramps up at mid levels but the air appears to be quite dry at mid levels in advance of the weakening mid level low center. Cant rule out some isolated thunder (possibly strong over the region due to the shear) but overall it looks rather dry most areas.

For the weekend, deterministic guidance does not show much agreement, GFS wetter for the area while EC dry. Statistical guidance has some showers over the region with 70s and 80s for highs.

Overall, What actually happens later this week is going to be very dependent on the track of the potent closed mid level low, and how much drier air gets wrapped into it (and where this drier air move towards). Guidance typically has problems with the details with patterns evolving like this one (Omega block) \/Hodanish

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and mainly diurnally driven. Skies remain clear through the remainder of the overnight hours, with scattered to occasionally broken middle and upper-level cloud decks likely returning for all three stations Sunday afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.