textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rainfall will continue across the ern San Juans into the evening, with significant and dangerous flooding expected from the mountains downstream into the western edge of the San Luis Valley.

- Snow level finally drops late tonight, with several inches of snow above 9000 feet in the San Juans before precip ends Monday.

- Runoff from heavy rain today and tonight will likely cause flooding along the Rio Grande from Mon-Wed, especially from South Fork downstream to Alamosa. Flooding is also likely along the Conejos River.

- Dry and warmer on Tue, then a weak weather system will bring a chance of showers to much of the region Wed into early Thu.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 212 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

After a bit of a lull in precip rates around midday, early afternoon observations and radar data suggest rainfall is increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon over the San Juans and adjacent areas, with snow level climbing toward 11k feet across the area. Most CAMs suggest period from now (2pm MST) until around 10 pm will see the heaviest rainfall, with additional QPF of over 2 inches possible by midnight, then rain changes to snow above 9000 feet and rates decrease by sunrise on Mon. Combo of snow and wind could make for difficult travel over Wolf Creek and Cumbres Passes Mon morning, with Winter Storm Warning in effect until midday Mon. Overall, current set of flood highlights for the area look in good shape, but expect we'll see multiple areal/river flood warnings later today and tonight, as run-off hits area waterways and heads downstream. Elsewhere, scattered showers expected to continue over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening, with perhaps a few quick moving showers/thunderstorms on the plains this evening, before downslope drying ends most activity along/east of the mountains and across the plains after midnight.

On Monday, upper low moves through Colorado, with strong surface cold front sweeping southward through the plains during the late morning hours. Over the mountains, switch to more west and eventually northwest upper flow should decrease precip intensity/coverage over the San Juans through the morning, while snow picks up in the central mountains as snow levels fall and upward motion increases. Higher elevations from Monarch Pass northward could see a few inches of snow and some blowing/drifting by afternoon, though accumulations look low enough to preclude issuance of an advisory at this point. Over the eastern mountains and plains, strong north winds will develop by afternoon behind the cold front, with enough upward motion for fairly widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms from early afternoon into early evening, though focus for precip will shift toward the NM border/srn I-25 corridor fairly quickly as precip hole develops over COS/PUB (though 18z HRRR has a bullseye of heavier precip over COS/PUB around noon before activity shifts south). Could get cold enough for some snow showers along the Palmer Divide Mon evening before lift exits the area into the plains by midnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 212 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

After a drier/warmer day on Tue, most model solutions have latched onto some weak energy sliding through the Rockies Wed/Thu, generating low elevation rain/mtn snow showers across the region especially Wed/Wed night. Still not expecting heavy precip as system continues to look moisture-starved, though some light snow accumulations over the higher mountains look possible. End of the week/weekend upper trough position continues to shift east, suggesting most impacts and precip will be east of the area, though associated cold front may bring some brief light sprinkles and cooler temperatures to the region on Fri.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 452 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Upper low pressure system crossing the Great Basin and Rocky Mt region over the next 24 hrs will bring widespread rain, low clouds and deteriorating conditions across much of the forecast area, affecting the three main terminal sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

KCOS: MVFR to IFR conditions now through 18z due to RA and low cigs. Mentioned wind shear starting at 06z and lasting through 11z. Front pushes through by midday with N gusts to 32 kts and -SHRA.

KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions through 06z due to RA and low cigs. Mentioned wind shear starting at 12z and lasting through 19z. W-SW winds gusting gusting to around 20 kts through the early morning, then front pushes through by midday with N gusts to 32 kts and -SHRA.

KALS: Strong S winds gusting 30-40 kts. MVFR conditions, with intermittent IFR due to reduced visibility from RA.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 112 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Forecast of significant flooding remains on track for the San Juans and wrn San Luis Valley, with many locations in the mountains already seeing rainfall amounts as of late morning in the 1-2 inch range, with another 2 inches possible by late evening. Snow level did dip down to around 10000 feet this morning, but has risen toward 11000 feet at midday, with observations and webcams showing mostly rain around Wolf Creek Pass with temps in the 30s, and a few locations farther south above Platoro Reservoir have warmed into the 40s. Even a few 50s up to 9000 feet toward the NM border. Snotels have begun to show drops in SWE (Snow Water Equivalent), suggesting melting snow will begin adding to river flows for the next 12 hrs or so. Switch to snow this evening still looks slow initially, before snow level drops quickly below 9000 feet by sunrise Mon. Total precipitation amounts of 3-4 inches look on track by late morning Mon, with a large portion of this falling as rain today and tonight below about 12000 feet. Rainfall amounts in the Valley itself should be between .5 and 1.5 inches, heaviest near the mountains on the western in edge.

Runoff peak should be this evening in the mountains, before snow level falls and run-off starts to decrease early Mon morning. River stage forecasts continue to indicate significant flooding, with the South Fork of the Rio Grande at South Fork and the Conejos River at Mogote rising well above flood stage this evening, cresting overnight into early Monday morning. These high flows will then move downstream Mon/Tue/Wed with flooding likely on the mainstem Rio Grande at Del Norte/Monte Vista and Alamosa and along the Conejos River east of Mogote through the period. A river flood warning has been issued for the Rio Grande at Del Norte, and a flood watch is now in effect for the Rio Grande at Alamosa. A areal flood watch also remains in effect for all of the San Luis Valley from tonight into Tue morning, mainly for mountain runoff.

Overall, most streams and rivers will likely crest at or slightly above levels seen during the flood event last week, with moderate to major flooding likely once again.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday morning for COZ067-068. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ068. Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for COZ069>071.