textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry and breezy weather will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of southeast Colorado Tuesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain Wednesday and Thursday.

- Trending much colder Friday and Saturday with increasing chances for snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 207 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates moderate northwest flow aloft across the region, with upper level ridging across the West Coast and a broad upper trough in place across the Upper Great Lakes through the Central Conus. Regional satellite data is indicating mostly sunny conditions as clouds continue to decrease across the far southeast plains, with much drier air working into the regional behind this mornings passing wave. Temperatures have been slow to warm behind the passing wave, with readings as of 1 pm in the 30s across the plains and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Latest model data supports increasing northwest flow aloft through the day Tuesday, ahead of yet another embedded wave digging down across the Northern Tier.

This will keep very dry air in place across the region, and with clear skies tonight, will see temperatures cool off into the single digits and teens through the overnight hours, with expected warming over and near the higher terrain into early Tuesday morning.

Increasing northwest flow supports lee troughing across the I-25 Corridor on Tuesday, which will help to develop gap flows and breezy winds through the afternoon. This, along with warming temperatures (in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain) and continued dry air in place, will support critical fire weather conditions for portions of the mountains/plains interface. With that said, we have issued Red Flag Warnings for fire weather zones 221, 222, 228 and 229. We did not include zones 225 and 226, as there will likely be some areas along the lower eastern slopes reaching criteria, it was not enough to include all of the zones.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

For Wednesday, it will be similar to Tuesday, but winds will be a bit less and RH values will be a bit higher, but still we may see some spotty fire weather issues along the mtn/plains interface on this day.

Thursday, the beginning of a potential SIGNIFICANT cold snap will start to be felt as guidance is indicating arctic boundary pushing into the region during the mid/late day period over the plains. It should remain dry across the entire fcst area during this day.

Friday...Max temps are now NOT forecasted to get above freezing across all of the plains. DESI guidance is still showing a rather large range in the max temps fcst, but most members are favoring a colder solution. RH values through the column are also noticeably higher and some low end pops are now being fcst over the lower elevations. Deterministic solutions are showing a large 1050 mb Arctic airmass pushing across the north central states with solid upslope flow over the High Plains. Confidence is increasing Friday into Saturday will be quite cold and cloud with upslope precip over the plains. POPs for the Plains are now in the 20-40% range with higher amounts mtns for the FRI into SAT time period.

For Sunday into Monday, dry with temps warming back up into the 40s and 50s. Another arctic intrusion could occur mid week next week if the EC deterministic guidance verifies. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1035 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS as skies continue to clear through the rest of the morning, with drier air working into the region behind this mornings passing system. Generally light diurnal wind regimes at the terminals, with breezy westerlies developing at COS and especially PUB at the tail end of this taf period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ221-222- 228-229.