textproduct: Pueblo

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today...

Breezy west flow remains in place aloft as high pressure builds far to our south. For today, mainly hot and dry across most of the area. High temperatures will be a few degrees lower than yesterday, but still hot, with the eastern plains climbing back into the high-90s. Gusty winds will mix down towards the surface across the higher terrain, with critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of the Continental Divide, Upper Arkansas, and the San Luis Valley. RFW in effect 11am-10pm.

Later in the day, towards early evening, a shortwave disturbance will pass through the flow aloft to our northeast, sending a weak front south across the plains. As it does, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form, mainly closer to the CO/KS border with a few isolated storms over the Palmer Divide, traveling south and east as the front does. Models differ on the strength and coverage of thunderstorms, mainly due to differences in available moisture and lift. The front itself should provide the necessary lift, along with some low-level wind shear, but moisture may be a bit lacking. Generally, models range with dewpoints ahead of the front, with modest instability of 1000 J/kg or less generally expected during the afternoon. Though more moist air moves in behind the front, the main threat expected from strong to severe storms will be strong outflow winds. However, if any storms manage to stay more isolated and intensify further, large hail will quickly become a concern.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today...

Breezy west flow remains in place aloft as high pressure builds far to our south. For today, mainly hot and dry across most of the area. High temperatures will be a few degrees lower than yesterday, but still hot, with the eastern plains climbing back into the high-90s. Gusty winds will mix down towards the surface across the higher terrain, with critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of the Continental Divide, Upper Arkansas, and the San Luis Valley. RFW in effect 11am-10pm.

Later in the day, towards early evening, a shortwave disturbance will pass through the flow aloft to our northeast, sending a weak front south across the plains. As it does, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form, mainly closer to the CO/KS border with a few isolated storms over the Palmer Divide, traveling south and east as the front does. Models differ on the strength and coverage of thunderstorms, mainly due to differences in available moisture and lift. The front itself should provide the necessary lift, along with some low-level wind shear, but moisture may be a bit lacking. Generally, models range with dewpoints ahead of the front, with modest instability of 1000 J/kg or less generally expected during the afternoon. Though more moist air moves in behind the front, the main threat expected from strong to severe storms will be strong outflow winds. However, if any storms manage to stay more isolated and intensify further, large hail will quickly become a concern.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Not much change to the long-term forecast at this time. As high pressure continues to build in from the south, breezy west winds will persist over the mountains and adjacent areas, leading to spotty critical fire weather conditions. Limiting factor there will mainly just be how strong the winds get, but some critical conditions are expected each afternoon. Meanwhile, favorable upslope winds will be in place over the far eastern plains. This will combine with a few disturbances passing overhead throughout the week, meaning that showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon over our far eastern counties. There should be enough moisture for some good instability, and with the added lift from the synoptic pattern and decent wind shear, some strong to severe storms will be possible as well.

This pattern will last through most of the week, with models beginning to hint at a more broad trough moving in sometime next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Diurnal flow will continue this afternoon but a boundary will push through KCOS and KPUB around 00 UTC and this will bring breezy NE winds to the two taf sites. into the early evening hours. There will also be a chance of a late night shower at KPUB.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Still expecting a very active week, fire weather-wise, across the region.

Today: Red Flag Warning is in effect, 11am to 10pm, for portions of the Continental Divide, Upper Arkansas, and the San Luis Valley. Breezy west winds will coincide with dry surface conditions through most of the afternoon and evening.

Monday Onwards: Dry, warm conditions will remain in place across the higher terrain the rest of the week. Critical conditions will depend on how strong winds are, but generally gusts should keep critical conditions over portions of the higher terrain each afternoon. At this time, no precipitation is expected over the mountains this week.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220- 222>224. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-223- 224.