textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms possible this evening before activity diminishes overnight.

- Thunderstorm chances increase over the plains this weekend while the mountains dry out. Strong to severe storms possible both days east of I-25.

- Wetter conditions return to much of the area next week, though still some uncertainty about when and where the greatest chance for rainfall will be.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Currently, scattered storms firing again as of 130 pm over the mountains/Palmer Divide and I-25 corridor, with activity in El Paso helped along by weak low level circulation (evident in KPUX reflectivity) drifting northward through the ern half of the county. For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, scattered showers/storms will continue, best coverage along the Continental Divide and near the Palmer Divide, very low chance of storms on the plains where instability is minimal. Brief heavy rain/gusty winds the main storm hazards today. Cold front on the plains tonight may produce some briefly gusty north winds from late evening toward midnight, especially along and north of the Arkansas River.

On Saturday, western U.S. upper low moves into the Central Rockies, with deepening swly flow across CO. Moisture over the higher terrain continues to thin out through the day, with only isolated convection expected most locations, best chance for a storm will be over the central mountains where upper forcing is stronger. Over the plains/I-25 corridor, post-frontal easterly flow is rather weak, keeping deepest moisture/instability generally east of I-25. CAPE (1000-200 J/KG) and shear (0-6km 35-45 kts) look sufficient for strong/severe storms, especially late in the day as low level easterly flow picks up a bit. Main question is timing of stronger storms, as a few CAMs (i.e. 18z HRRR) develop storms early afternoon near I-25, with a broken line of convection moving east across the plains from mid- afternoon into early evening. Other models initiate storms much later, with bulk of the activity in the evening and overnight. Adjusted NBM pops to at least acknowledge earlier convection possible along I-25 and the plains, kept highest pops in the evening hrs, then ended most storms after midnight except along the KS border. Fairly strong easterly winds behind departing convection should shove deeper low level moisture westward toward the mountains, setting up potential convection on the plains for Sunday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Potential day-2 severe set-up on the plains Sunday, as post frontal upslope deepens under brisk w-sw flow aloft, while strong upper trough lifts out of WY into the High Plains. CAPE 1k-2k J/KG and 0-6km shear over 30 kts (localized 40-50 kts between KCOS and KLIC) look favorable for strong/severe storms, especially with dynamic lift from the upper trough passing over the region. Storms likely initiate along the Palmer Divide mid/late afternoon, spreading southeast onto the plains through the evening. NBM pops looked ok for the most part, but did trim back numbers some, especially along the Wets/srn I-25 corridor, where forcing looks weaker. Models suggest weakening activity could even persist into Mon morning, though QPF by then will be rather light.

For next week, trend would appear to be toward wetter conditions once again, with upper high over TX and general troughing along the West Coast. Still a good deal of variance among the models/ensembles regarding timing/strength on s/w troughs and associated moisture surges, so forecast confidence is moderate at this point. Currently thinking is Mon may end up the driest day, at least over mountains, with scattered storms still possible on the plains. Wettest days could be Tue and again Thu, with srn mountains (ern San Juans/srn Sangres) most favored for rainfall. Temps will likely stay within a few degf of seasonal averages through the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

At KPUB and KCOS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with a prob30 for -tsra at both sites (best chance at KCOS) from mid-afternoon into early evening. Main storm threat will be gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Weak cold front will pass through the area mid/late evening, with briefly gusty north winds behind the boundary until around 06z.

At KALS, VFR this afternoon and evening, with a prob30 for -tsra from mid-afternoon into early evening. Storm threat then ends toward sunset with mid/high level cloud deck overnight. Did include a tempo for fog/stratus 10z-14z as winds become light and low levels saturate.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.