textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue this evening, some strong to severe. Strong winds, hail, and heavy rain/flash flooding on the table.

- Afternoon storms are expected again on Monday, mostly over the eastern mountains and Raton Mesa.

- A bit drier through the rest of the week, though some scattered storms will still be possible each afternoon starting Weds.

- Warmer temps return this week and into the weekend. Eastern plains may hit triple digits this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Strong to severe storms have already formed over the Pikes Peak Region and near the Raton Mesa as of 2pm. Flash flooding is also ongoing over the Aspen Acres burn scar. Activity is expected to continue pushing east through the remainder of the evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 9pm this evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

With the monsoon plume funneling right into our area, thunderstorm activity is expected to move across our area through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening. Strong to severe storms are still anticipated, with current analysis showing 1000 J/kg of CAPE along I- 25, increasing to 2000+ further east. Additionally, the eastern half of our CWA shows 30 knots or so of effective bulk shear. Dewpoints remain in the 50s over most of these areas as well, close to 60 in places.

Storms will continue to initiate over our eastern mountains, pushing over the plains within the next few hours and intensifying. Main storm hazards remain on track from previous forecasts, with outflow winds 60-70 mph, hail up to 1.5 inches, heavy rain and flash flooding. Flood Watch for Aspen Acres remains in effect thru 8pm.

Storms will move off to the east later tonight, with mild temperatures and lingering low-level moisture setting things up for tomorrow.

Monday...

The upper ridge will build back in over our area on Monday, kicking the monsoon plume to our west and giving us a slightly drier day. However, some lingering low-level moisture should coincide with a weak passing shortwave aloft, allowing for some afternoon thunderstorm formation, though noticeably less than today. The majority of convection will form over our southeast mountains, spreading close to the Raton Mesa and far southern plains later in the day, while a few isolated to scattered storms will be possible over the San Juans and the Pikes Peak Region. Storms along the terrain will be on the weaker side, with outflow to 50 mph and hail up to half an inch or so. If storms manage to persist long enough to move onto the eastern plains, they will encounter moist, southeasterly surface winds and better forcing thanks to the passing shortwave. Some stronger to severe storms (60 mph winds, 1 inch hail) will be possible late afternoon into early evening. Additionally, any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, so flash flooding will still be a concern over burn scars, though again coverage and confidence are both lower for Monday than today. Finally, highs will be a few degrees warmer across the region, with mid-80s to low-90s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Long-range forecast remains on track, with the upper high expected to build back in over the Four Corners Region. This will amplify the upper ridge, leading to drier conditions across the area through most of the week. After much drier conditions on Tuesday, lingering low to mid-level moisture will allow for more scattered thunderstorm activity each day. Storms will first form over the mountains, with a passing front on Wednesday bringing precipitation back to the plains as well. Meanwhile, high temps will increase across the board, with high-80s over the valleys and high-90s over the eastern plains, with a low but non-zero chance for some more triple digits heading into this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

Scattered showers and storms will move past KCOS and KPUB between 20- 03Z, with expected outflow winds over 40 knots. Chances for direct impact at KPUB remains low, so left as PROB30. Confidence in precip at KCOS has increased, so added a TEMPO group there, followed by a PROB30 this evening for when coverage becomes more sparse.

Currently, no precip or storm-related impacts at KALS this period, with winds mainly retaining a southerly component. Mid-level clouds will linger across the area as well.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086.