textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected for a large portion of southern Colorado Thursday.

- Snow possible Thursday night through Friday across a good portion of southern CO in and near the mountains as the storm track has trended south.

- Dry and warming back up again for the weekend into early next week with another mid week northern stream wave possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1257 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Southwest flow aloft increases today as the next system approaches the Great Basin. Dry air overspreads southern CO ahead of the system with gusty southwest winds spreading into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Models do not look as windy as earlier runs had indicated and locations across southern El Paso and northern Pueblo as well as Crowley and Kiowa counties may struggle to get gusts over 25 mph until fairly late in the day. Will maintain current Red Flag Warnings as southern portions of these zones may make criteria, but northern areas may come up shy of the full 3 hours needed duration. Otherwise it will be unseasonably warm with high temperatures approaching record highs for this date which are 62 in 1986 for Alamosa, 70 set in 1910 and 1925 for Colorado Springs, and 78 degrees in 2010 for Pueblo. Winds in and near the mountains will gust up to 40 to 50 mph with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range more common elsewhere.

Upper low takes shape across eastern UT/western CO tonight, edging slowly eastward. This will spread snow into the Continental Divide after sunset with showers gradually spreading eastward towards dawn. Snowfall amounts have increased with the latest set of runs, with the central mountains likely to see some moderate wind driven snow after midnight. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges with the heaviest snow and greatest impacts likely north of Cottonwood Pass. Elsewhere, showers will hold off until closer to dawn as a cold front pushes into the Pikes Peak region around 2 AM. Showers will break out across northern Teller and northern El Paso counties by dawn, and temperatures will be cold enough with this system for an all snow event. To the south, temperatures will be more mild as westerly downslope flow maintains through the night. Blended some warmer temperatures into the NBM mean across southern areas where lows are likely to remain on the warmer side.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1257 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Deterministic models and ensembles have trended farther south of the upper low as it tracks across CO on Friday before shearing off to the northeast during the late afternoon and evening as upper jet energy digging down the west side develops a cut off low across the Desert Southwest Friday night. A cold front will push southward through the plains Friday morning with snow spreading eastward into the Pikes Peak region towards dawn, then expanding southward behind the cold front into the remainder of the southeast mountains and adjacent plains through the day. Depending on how compact the mid level circulation center gets, there could be some precipitation enhancement across the Pikes Peak region, Fremont County and the Wet mountains from late morning into the afternoon as H7 winds shift around from the east to northeast briefly before becoming more northerly during the afternoon. There will also be some instability to play with over the mountains and immediately behind the front across portions of the southeast mountains and adjacent plains with the latest suite of runs pointing to the Wet Mountains and Fremont county as the wild card area for some heavier QPF and enhanced snowfall. Teller and northern El Paso county should see some respectable amounts as well and suspect more Winter Weather Advisories will be needed for these areas as snowfall totals have increased. Will have to keep a close eye on Fremont County and the Wet Mountains if model trends continue. Given the start of the event won't be until closer to dawn Friday, will hold off on highlights just yet. This will be a colder system than the previous one with precipitation starting off as snow across the Pikes Peak region and staying as snow through the day. Cooled temperatures down towards the 25th percentile of the NBM which is closer in line with guidance. Snow levels will stay around 5000-5500 feet with a rain/snow mix possible down to 4500 feet through the day. So any convective enhancement could yield some quick and heavy accumulations of snow in and near the mountains.

Snowfall winds down Friday night with a return to dry weather for Saturday through Monday. Temperatures rebound again, especially Sunday into Monday. Humidity values will drop below 15 percent during the afternoons but flow aloft remains fairly light for Sunday before increasing again on Monday as the northern stream jet sags southward. The cut off low which retrogrades off the northern coast of the Baja Peninsula will eventually kick eastward early next week, but latest iterations keep the storm track well to our south for much affect. The northern stream flow buckles a bit by Tuesday into Wednesday but looks less amplified with the upper trough as it treks across the northern Rockies and into the plains. Overall the forecast has trended warmer and drier towards the middle of next week, though it still looks like we will see another cold front drop through the plains at some point. Critical fire weather conditions may return for Tuesday and again on Thursday depending on fuels status, though any mitigating impacts from the Thurs Night-Fri snowfall may be fleeting given the significant precipitation deficits. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the majority of the TAF period. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to begin very late in the period after a cold frontal passage, with snow showers and lower ceilings later moving into the region. Highest chances will exist over KCOS, mainly after 14Z Friday morning. For today though, expect VFR conditions and breezy southerly to southwesterly winds.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight MST Friday night for COZ058-060. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ222- 224>237.