textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with 60s and 70s for highs and increased precipitation chances.

- Hot by Wednesday, with most of the Plains at or above 100 degrees, with widespread high fire danger.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1237 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently...a few light showers will prevail through around 2 AM across the far southeast Plains as upper energy exits into the Central Plains. At the surface, light easterly flow will keep low level moisture pooled across the Plains with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50. This will likely help develop low stratus through morning, with light precipitation possible, mainly along the lee slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Rampart Range. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

Today and tonight...broad northwest flow aloft will prevail through this afternoon across southern Colorado. Upper energy embedded in the flow will move across the eastern Plains this afternoon, while a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Wyoming into Nebraska. This will help keep low level flow across the Plains easterly, transitioning to southeasterly by this afternoon. Dewpoints look to remain in the 40s to lower 50s across the Plains, and cloud cover will help keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for this afternoon. The energy moving through the northwesterly flow aloft will help generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, initially across the higher terrain, and spreading into the Plains by this afternoon. SBCAPE values in 500-700 j/kg range and weak 0-6km shear of 25 to 30 kts will likely limit thunderstorm strength, with hail to half an inch and wind gusts near 40 mph possible with stronger cores. PWAT values near 0.8 inches could lead to decent precipitation efficiencies with locally heavy rainfall possible under stronger cores.

This activity will continue will shift south and east this evening as the upper energy in the northwest flow moves east into Kansas overnight. Most shower and thunderstorm activity looks to dissipate by midnight, with a few lingering showers out near the Kansas border possible during the late night hours. Overnight lows will fall off into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Plains, and near 40s for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Models overall in good agreement through the extended period with broad northwesterly flow through midweek, and upper ridging moving across the region and flow transitioning to southwesterly by next weekend. The main concerns will be increasing fire weather conditions through much of the extended period, and very hot temperatures for Wednesday.

Monday through Wednesday...temperatures will begin to warm Monday across the region, with northwesterly flow continuing. One last embedded wave will shift southeast across Colorado, with model guidance developing afternoon thunderstorms across the southern Sangre de Cristo Range, east into the Raton Mesa Monday afternoon. A couple of storms could become strong as they move off the higher terrain into the Raton Mesa, however, 0-6 km shear is only around 20 kts, and CAPE values near 1200 j/kg should help storms from becoming severe. Hail to 3/4 of an inch and wind gusts to 50 mph may be possible with the stronger storms. This activity will shift south and east Monday evening, clearing Monday night. Temperatures will gradually warm into the 70s to lower 80s across the Plains. For areas from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains, breezy northwest winds and drier air will lead to spotty critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. Overnight lows on Monday will fall into the 40s and 50s across the region.

Upper ridging to the west will begin to shift eastward Tuesday and Wednesday. This will force the upper energy in northwesterly flow aloft into the Central Plains, leaving southern Colorado dry for Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will also continue to warm with upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday afternoon, and mid 90s to lower 100s by Wednesday. Fire weather conditions will also spread east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Areas along the Continental Divide, into the San Luis Valley will see elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday. By Wednesday, gusty winds and very dry air (in additions to the very hot temperatures) will continue eastward encompassing all mountain areas, east into the I-25 corridor. Those with outdoor burning activities should plan to burn another day. No precipitation is forecast at this time Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...the upper ridging is forecast to shift eastward across Colorado, while a cold front drops south across the Plains, with highs Thursday mostly in the 80s across the lower elevations. Dry conditions will continue on Thursday, with elevated fire weather conditions across the Continental Divide and San Luis Valley.

By Friday, the upper ridge will shift east into the Central Plains, with broad troughing developing across the western states. This will shift flow southwesterly for Friday into the weekend, with embedded energy bringing increased chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. These precipitation chances increase daily, with be best chances over the weekend. Temperatures will remain hot, with mostly 90s across the Plains. Spotty, critical fire weather conditions will remain possible from the Continental Divide, into the San Luis Valley, mainly for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Current VFR conditions for most locations now through 08z, then as easterly flow deepens and increases, clouds thicken and lower along with drizzle/very light rain spreading, producing MVFR for most spots, and persisting into midday Sunday. Introduced PROB30 wording for -TSRA potential starting around 19z Sunday for all three terminal sites, KCOS, KPUB and KALS and lasting until around 02z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.