textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, breezy and dry with spotty elevated fire weather conditions over the weekend but fuel conditions have been mitigated by green up and recent rains for most areas

- Another uptick in thunderstorm chances early next week as southern stream systems bring a moisture tap over the area with embedded disturbances

- Warmer temperatures with at least some isolated mountain storms late week into next weekend as upper ridging returns

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Upper low over UT will eject to the northeast into WY on Saturday putting southern CO under drying southwest to westerly flow aloft. The dry line across the southeast plains will get mixed out across the eastern CO border as the surface low moves into western KS by afternoon. This will bring the return of afternoon humidity levels below 15 percent across much of the San Luis Valley and southeast plains. High res models show breezy winds 20-30 mph mixing down by afternoon with the strongest gusts across the San Luis Valley, the I- 25 corridor and far eastern plains. Ordinarily this would result in a critical fire weather day, but recent rains and green up have mitigated fuel conditions for most areas, and conditions will be elevated at best as winds subside some in the mid to late afternoon. Therefore no fire weather highlights are anticipated. Otherwise, some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the central mountains in better proximity to the southern extent of moisture and lift with the passing system. Overall, any precipitation will be spotty and light as the brunt of the precipitation passes well to the north. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s to near 90 across the plains, 60s and 70s for the valleys, and 40s and 50s for the higher mountains.

Tonight will be dry and mild with enhanced westerly flow continuing along the eastern slopes and adjacent plains as the upper low glances by to the north. This will result in lows in the 40s to lower 50s for the plains with 20s and 30s for the mountains and valleys with some of the coolest readings in some of the cold pool trapping valley locations. -KT

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Sunday will be similarly warm, dry and breezy with elevated fire weather conditions across the San Luis valley and spotty areas along the I-25 corridor and southern sections of the southeast plains. Again with fuels deemed not receptive, no fire weather highlights are anticipated. Pops will be nil this day as the upper low to the north continues to pull away to the northeast putting southern CO under dry westerly flow.

A cold front drops through the plains Sunday night through early Monday. Depending on how quickly and far south the front drops, along with timing of the low level moisture return in easterly low level flow behind the front, Monday could be a potential severe weather day for portions of our southeast plains. Southwest flow aloft is still respectable before the upper ridge builds northward weakening the upper level flow for Tue an Wed. Deep layer shears are running around 40 kts from various models. It will all depend on the low level moisture return behind the frontal boundary and the resultant CAPE. This may be anywhere from the NBM mean of up to 1000 J/kg to a higher side value of up to 2000 J/kg across the eastern most counties from the NBM 90th percentile. Details will need to be honed down as the day gets closer, but Monday will be the day to watch. Pops this day will be confined to the eastern mountains and plains, for the most part, as the southwest flow aloft keeps a drier airmass over the mountains. Upper ridging over the southern plains for mid week taps some Pacific moisture over the mountains with southern stream energy sending some weak disturbances northward across CO. This will bring another uptick in showers and thunderstorms area wide along with slightly cooler temperatures due to increasing afternoon cloud cover/rain cooled outflows. There will be low level moisture positioned across the southeast plains, though with lighter flow aloft due to rising heights, shear becomes more limited by Tues (20-25kts) and even CAPE cuts back to under 500 J/kg by Wed across much of the area. So, although thunderstorm chances ramp up through mid week, thunderstorm risks will likely transition towards locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a localized flash flooding risk.

Another drying and warming trend returns for Friday into next weekend as upper ridging tries to get re-established across the southern/central Rockies. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Breezy southwest winds at the terminals through the early evening to become generally diurnally driven through the late evening and overnight. Any storms look to remain north of the area through the period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.