textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storm threat continues into Friday across the southeast Colorado Plains.

- Daily showers and storms across the mountains through Friday.

- Smoke from eastern Utah wildfires to ebb and flow across the Rockies through Friday.

- Drying out and warming up this weekend, leading to increasing coverage of critical fire conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Current water vapor imagery indicates another embedded shortwave within the modest westerly flow aloft across the Rockies at this time. Moist low level easterly upslope flow has keep dew pts in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, with dew pts in the 20s and 30s across south central Colorado at this time. Regional region radars and satellite imagery has CU and a few showers and storms developing across the higher terrain, with stratus starting to lift across El Paso county at this time. Smoke from eastern Utah wildfires caught up in the westerly flow aloft has brought smoke to much of south central and southeast Colorado today as well.

For this afternoon into tonight, with said shortwave aiding in storm development, will see scattered showers and storms developing and spreading across the higher terrain through the evening, with strong to severe storms expected once again across the lower eastern slopes into the southeast plains, where abundant low level moisture remains in place. Latest SPC meso-analysis and high res model data indicates 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE and up to 1500 j/kg to MLCAPE, along with 25-40kts of bulk shear, to support strong to severe storm development across the I-25 Corridor between 2pm-7pm, with the severe storm potential spreading into the southeast plains through the rest of the evening. With the abundant moisture in place, hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter, strong damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain, being the main threats from storms. With the better shear north of the Highway 50 Corridor, can't rule out an isolated tornado as well. The locally heavy rainfall will also bring the potential for flash flooding, especially for areas that received heavy rain over the past few days. Breezy westerly winds and higher based showers and storms will keep critical and near critical fire weather conditions across south central Colorado, where a Red Flag Warning will remain in place through 7 pm.

Showers and storms could continue over the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd through the overnight hours, with moist easterly upslope flow developing stratus across the plains once again early tomorrow morning.

A rinse and repeat forecast remains for tomorrow, as another short wave within the westerly flow aloft is progged to translate across the region, where more mid level moisture will bring scattered higher based showers and storms to the mountains tomorrow afternoon and evening. Further east, amble low level moisture remains progged to support another afternoon and evening of strong to severe storms, with the latest SPC Day 2 Outlook keeping a marginal risk across the eastern slopes and I-25 Corridor, and a slight risk across the Palmer Dvd and into the far southeast plains.

Latest smoke forecasts indicate smoke from eastern Utah wildfires, will ebb and flow within the westerly flow aloft through the day, with could remain in place into the early weekend, when flow aloft becomes more southwest.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

On Friday, which continues through the weekend, latest model data support increasing southwest flow aloft, which will gradually warm and dry the atmosphere across south central and southeast Colorado. Latest data supports a dryline mixing out across the southeast plains through the afternoon, with SPC Day 3 Outlook supporting a marginal risk of severe storms east of the I-25 Corridor Friday afternoon and evening, with more higher based storms across the rest of south central and southeast Colorado.

Warm, dry and breezy conditions remain forecast for the weekend into early next week, with decreasing available moisture leading to increasing coverage of critical fire weather conditions across the region. However, we will need to monitor fuel conditions for any updates during this weeks wetter pattern, for any issuance of fire weather highlights. Will also have to watch the evolution of the dryline across the plains, with some models indicating its presence across the far southeast plains later in the weekend and into early next week. Otherwise, temperatures to warm back above seasonal levels through the weekend, with temperatures possibly hitting the century mark across portions of the southeast plains once again, into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 531 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KALS: Passing showers will remain present in the valley for a few more hours, with intermittent MVFR cigs. Winds turn south to southwest overnight, with cigs hovering between low VFR and high MVFR. By 18Z or so Thursday, winds pick up out of the west, with another round of showers and storms expected in the afternoon into evening.

KCOS and KPUB: Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this evening, scattered in coverage with a relatively low chance of directly impacting the terminals. Chances at KCOS will be slightly higher than at KPUB, but left both as PROB30 for now. Will need to monitor for any influences from outflow. Cigs will sink into MVFR overnight, generally staying there into Thursday. By 15-18Z Thursday, winds pick up out of the southeast again, and another round of passing thunderstorms is expected through the end of this forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-224.