textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering moisture under the upper ridge will support isolated, high based convection over and near the higher terrain today through Wednesday.

- From Wednesday into next weekend, moisture may slowly spread over the western half of CO, bringing a gradual increase in coverage of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, mainly over and near the ContDvd.

- From I-25 eastward, mainly dry and hot conditions are expected through the week, as upper level winds will be unfavorable for storms to move off the mountains onto the plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Upper ridge continues to slowly amplify over the Rockies today, with deep easterly flow across much of Colorado. Still enough moisture/instability for isolated high terrain convection this afternoon and evening, with the best chance over the eastern San Juans where mid-level moisture is slightly deeper. Gusty winds and lightning the main features of any storms. I-25 and points eastward will miss out on most convection, with just a small chance of a storm near the Palmer Divide and along the Raton Mesa. Expect max temps to nudge upward a couple degf from yesterday's readings, though east winds and lack of downslope mixing will limit maxes to "only" the 90s on the plains.

On Monday, low/mid level flow bends back to the se, which will allow for a slight influx of mid-level moisture, especially over the southwest mountains and interior valleys. As a result, we should see an upturn in afternoon/evening evening convection, with a better chance of at least spotty wetting rainfall, especially over the eastern San Juans. Nudged up pops in a few spots from blended guidance for Monday afternoon as a result, mainly along the Continental Divide. East slopes/I-25/southeast plains to miss most activity, as unfavorable northeasterly steering flow moves high terrain activity away from the area. Max temps change little from Mon, with perhaps just some slight cooling over the southwest mountains where clouds/precip develop early enough to cut a couple degf off of highs.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Models hint at a downturn in convective chances Tue/Wed as upper high center over the nrn plains drifts slightly westward, keeping best moisture shunted south and west of the area. Still enough residual moisture around for isolated afternoon storms over the mountains both days, mainly back along the Continental Divide, where mid levels may remain slightly moister. Max temps remain little changed both days, with readings a few degf above mid- July averages. Still rather low confidence in how quick moisture spreads back across wrn CO/Continental Divide by the end of the week, as a good deal of 00z guidance looks rather dry, with upper high drifting back westward into the central Rockies, keeping main moisture plume well west. NDFD is still rather bullish on precip Thu-Sat, with highest pops along the Continental Divide tapering off to nothing on the plains. Best bet for beneficial rainfall by the end of the week will be over the eastern San Juans/La Garitas where better mid-level moisture will work north, while unfortunately remainder of the high terrain will see mainly spotty/lighter amounts. Might see a slight increase in max temps toward the end of the week as upper high drifts closer, with highs around 100f over the lower Arkansas Valley Fri/Sat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will predominantly be from an easterly component at all taf sites. It will be breezy at times in the afternoon and early evening time periods.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.