textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon plume shifts westward bringing a downward trend in thunderstorm coverage over the mountains for Saturday and Sunday with temperatures heating up.

- Monday may need heat advisories for portions of the southeast plains as temperatures are forecast to crest over 100 degrees.

- Monsoon plume shifts back eastward through mid to late week with weak frontal intrusions increasing the odds of thunderstorms for the southeast plains by late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Upper high center will migrate to the northeast today with easterly flow wrapping the drier air, evident in WV imagery, westward across the mountains. This will bring a downward trend to thunderstorm coverage across the southeast mountains though there will be enough lingering moisture for a few isolated storms across Pikes Peak and the Sangre De Cristo mountains. With PWATs dropping under 100% of normal, rainfall amounts will be less intense and spottier in coverage. Meanwhile, higher moisture content will continue to reside along the Continental Divide for some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but should be spottier in coverage as well. Temperatures will similar to a degree or two warmer than yesterday.

Convection will diminish more quickly in the evening with clearing skies. Cooled off some of our valley locations a few degrees, otherwise stuck pretty close to model blends. -KT

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The drying trend continues into Sunday as easterly flow on the south side of the upper high advects drier air westward, dropping precipitable waters to under 100 percent of normal. Best chances for rain will be along and west of the Continental Divide where isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop. Locally heavy rainfall will become even spottier in coverage.

With the upper ridge axis to our west, the best monsoon tap stays to our west with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances staying confined to the Continental Divide region. H7 temperatures climb above 20C pushing high temperatures into the 100-105 degree range across the southeast plains. Urban areas along the I-25 corridor and portions of the southeast plains may end up needing some heat advisories on Monday as the day get closer.

A cool front drops into the southeast plains on Tuesday bringing a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the plains. Low level moisture return may be shallow and confined to eastern areas depending on the model, but details this far out are still prone to change.

The upper high shifts southeastward through mid to late week bringing the southerly moisture fetch eastward into western portions of the forecast area before the upper high expands back westward and gets flattened out resulting in stronger west to northwest flow aloft over CO by the end of the week. This brings the potential for stronger frontal intrusions into the plains with the promise of better low level moisture return, while the monsoon plume out west gradually moistens up the upper high. EC and GEFs ensembles show the greatest precipitable water increases across the southeast plains for Wednesday through Friday suggesting another uptick in thunderstorm coverage and an increased risk of burn scar flash flooding for our eastern mountain fire areas towards mid to late week. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 507 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Less convective activity is expected this afternoon, however cant rule out storms affecting ALS and have maintained prob30 1821/1901 at ALS. Winds at the terminals will again be breezy east to southeast for the afternoon and evening hours, becoming generally light diurnal drainage overnight.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.