textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper level high pressure to keep hot temperatures in place through Monday, with daily showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.

- Monsoonal moisture increases areawide through the end of the work week, with increasing coverage of daily showers and storms bringing increased flash flooding concerns, especially for burn areas.

- Drying trend into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to indicate a large upper ridge in place across the southern High Plains and into the Rockies, with a nearly 600DM high centered across the Central Rockies. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery has PWATS running between 100-130 percent of normal (1 to 1.2 inches) under the upper high, with PWATs of 150-175 percent of normal currently across the Southern Rockies into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin region. Regional radars are indicating a few diminishing showers over and near the higher terrain, with better coverage of storms across southern periphery of the ridge across western New Mexico into the eastern Arizona. Convective clouds are slow to dissipate through the late evening hours, which is helping to keep mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 80s across the plains at this time, with readings currently in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

Not much change in the forecast through tonight, as models keep the upper high in place across the region, which keeps weak, mainly westerly flow aloft in place over the higher terrain. This, along with a slight increase in PWATs within the weak westerly flow, and strong summer solar heating, will support another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain through the late morning and continuing through the late afternoon. Showers and storms spread east across the high mountain valleys and immediate adjacent plains, through the afternoon and evening, before diminishing and ending with the loss of solar heating. The best coverage of storms remains along and west of the ContDvd, where slow movement will continue to pose a flash flooding threat for the Willow burn area, and other susceptible areas such as the Chalk Cliffs and Poncha Pass. With the moisture in place, can't rule out localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding with all storms today as well.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected underneath the ridge again today, with likely the warmest readings of the week expected across region. Temperatures will quickly warm into the 90s through the morning across the plains and then top out in the upper 90s to 109F, warmest across the lower Arkansas River Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 am through 9 pm for most of the southeast plains. We could also see a few records fall today, with current record max temperatures for July 26th being 91F for ALS in 2023, 97F for COS in 1953, and 103F for PUB in 2023.

Clouds diminish overnight with low temperatures similar to todays readings in the 60s to around 70 expected across the plains, and mainly in the 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For Monday, latest models in good agreement of the upper high and mid level thermal trough shifting slowly south and east through the day. This will likely keep hot temperatures in place across the southeast plains. However, surface reflection of thermal trough sends a northerly surge across northern portions of the plains through the morning, and developing surface upslope across the mtn/plains interface will lead to better chances of clouds and afternoon storm development, with the continued influx of available moisture within the weak westerly flow aloft. So for now, will let the next shift get a better handle on temperatures and the need for any Heat Advisories for Monday. Otherwise, with the continued influx of available moisture, will once again see a good coverage of afternoon showers and storms over and near the higher terrain, with the continued threat of heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding, especially for the new burn areas.

Through the middle and end of the work week, the upper high remains progged to build south and west across the Southern Rockies and looks to centered across the Four Corners region by the end of the week. This will lead to a slow cooling trend, with temperatures at to slightly above seasonal levels through the end of the week. The continued wetter trend remains areawide, as monsoonal moisture continues to increase within developing west to northwest flow across the region. The best coverage of daily showers and storms will remain over and near the higher terrain through period, though, the southeast plains will see increasing chances of showers and storms through the middle and end of the week, with the abundant moisture in place and a few embedded disturbances riding the periphery of the ridge.

Latest longer term models and ensemble data do indicate drier air working back into the Rockies into next weekend, as monsoonal moisture is pushed south and west of the Central Rockies. There will likely be enough residual moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain, though storms will likely be on the drier side and less efficient rain makers.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions expected at the terminals overnight with generally light diurnally driven winds. KPUB and KCOS will see more northeast to easterly winds in the afternoon around 10-15 kts behind a diffuse boundary which may be the focus for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Will carry VCSH for now at both terminals until better confidence is gained on -TSRA potential. This would be most likely to begin after 22z for KCOS and after 00 or 01z at KPUB. Gusty outflow winds will be possible but will try to time the wind shifts in prevailing groups for now. KALS will have the best chance for -TSRA and have included that in a PROB30 group for the late afternoon and early evening. Gusty erratic outflow winds will be possible with these. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-093-095>099.