textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions over Pueblo, Fremont, and the lower elevations of Huerfano County this afternoon and evening

- Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon over the far eastern plains

- Hot temperatures - right around 10F above average for this time of year

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 109 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another hot day for southern Colorado with a mixture of fire weather over the western 2/3s of the CWA with a risk for severe weather of the eastern 1/3. First, let's talk about about the severe weather first.

Currently the northeastern plains of Colorado have a Marginal and Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon, with general thunder over the southeastern plains. I do believe that there is the opportunity for a few severe thunderstorms over the eastern plains. All guidance has a wave moving over the region during the early afternoon, sparking thunderstorms over the mountains creating weaker thunderstorm over the southern plains with most of the storms struggling over the lower dew point air across the I-25 Corridor. However, a few models (RRFS A, WRF-ARW2, HRRR) have a few storms developing. The interesting part about the HRRR is that it really tries to have a larger storm develop, but it seems like it runs into some weak inhibitions aloft. The NAMNEST doesn't have convection developing, but looking at the sounding, there really isn't a reason it shouldn't convect. So my overall forecast is that we'll get a storm or two that becomes severe between the hours of 2- 7PM over the far eastern plains, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties. MUCAPE values are between 1500-2500 J/kg, sfc-6km bulk shear values around 40-45kts, and there is a fairly straight hodograph. I think if we can convect in the eastern plains atmosphere a splitting supercell is possible. Again, if the storms develop, 1-2" hail, 60 to 70 MPH winds are possible, and I cannot rule out a tornado.

Meteorological fire weather will develop over the western 2/3s of the CWA, but fuel limitations will keep us only issuing for Fremont and the lower elevations of Pueblo and Fremont Counties. Wind gusts up to 30 MPH and RH values less than 15% are expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 109 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tuesday's fire weather concerns look a little less concerning that previous forecasts as a the latest data has slug of moisture propagate from the SW over the region. RH values increase from below 15% to ~20%. We'll keep the Fire Weather Watch up for now, but if trends continue, we may remove that highlight. With the uptick in moisture, there may be a severe weather risk on Tuesday instead of fire weather. Around 1000-1500 J/kg is being resolved over the southeastern corner of the state.

Wednesday is still on track with critical fire weather conditions in the forecast and I am not as convinced for Thursday, since a cold front is forecast to pass over the region and post frontal NE winds form - this isn't the best fire weather set-up, however, there have been times in similar set-ups where the air is still dry behind the cold front in the warm season, just not very common. We've issues a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and evening over the I-25 Corridor.

A high pressure begins to build to the south which puts a bit of enhanced winds from SW to the NE over Colorado advecting a bit of that eastern Pacific moisture our way, which will present shower and thunderstorm opportunities both on Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Generally quiet across the terminals this forecast period, with VFR conditions prevailing. Thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the evening still looks to remain to the north of both COS and PUB, with ALS not anticipated to observe any precip. It does look like low chances for showers return to ALS late in the period, Tuesday morning. With chances low, have left out of the taf at this time. Winds will be gusty this period at all sites, with ALS observing a south southwest wind/gusts this afternoon and again late Tuesday morning. Similar trends for COS and PUB, though the direction will be more south to southeast at these sites. Have maintained a wind shift to the northeast for both COS and PUB later this evening given a likely outflow boundary that will push across the terminals. Still monitoring the low chance for MVFR ceilings moving over both COS and PUB later tonight, but with chances still on the low side, have not added them to the forecast quite yet.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-228- 229. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ222-228>231-234-235. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ222-228>231-234-236.