textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms expected over the plains this weekend, with some strong to severe possible east of I-25.

- Wetter and cooler conditions return to the area next week, though there is still uncertainty in the forecast for where and when the most rain will fall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 119 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

An upper level trough will move into the Rockies from the northwest, increasing southwest flow aloft over our region. With plenty of moisture advection, and some additional energy moving in with the trough, showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area today. Storms will initiate over the mountains, with best coverage being some scattered storms over the central mountains, before activity follows the passing wave to the east. Once it reaches the Palmer Divide, existing thunderstorms will interact with an incoming cold front from the north, increasing both the intensity and coverage of convection into this evening. Any storms moving onto the plains will also encounter better low-level moisture, with some models indicating over 1000 J/kg of CAPE and over 30 knots of shear. As such, some of these storms may become strong to severe, with a marginal outlook for severe weather over the portions of our plains north of Highway 50. The main forecast challenge for today will be specific timing of convective initiation. Looking through the CAMs, different models are handling the progression of the wave, convective evolution, and the incoming front at different speeds. Some have convection popping over the Palmer as early as noon, while others wait until late afternoon. POPs will certainly start ramping up after midday, though greatest chances for stronger storms will be later this afternoon into early evening. Later on, storms are expected to congeal, possibly lining out as convection pushes into Kansas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 119 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Another active day is expected on Sunday. Post frontal upslope will be present over the eastern plains, with brisk west winds aloft. Meanwhile, the passing upper trough will lift through the area during the afternoon, giving us everything we need for some strong to severe storms. Models indicate a good fetch of CAPE across the eastern plains, approaching 1000 J/kg and increasing a bit further east. With flow aloft turning more northwesterly, 40-45 knots of effective shear is well within expectations as well. As the upper low moves past, another cold front will also dive south over the plains, giving plenty of low-level forcing for storms to fire and intensify. Best chance for severe storms will be along this front, which will first hit the Palmer Divide during the mid-late afternoon, pushing south over the eastern plains into Sunday Night. Once the front passes through, convection will weaken as the best forcing departs our area, leaving some lingering rain showers into Monday morning over the southeast plains.

Still a good bit of variation in the long-term guidance regarding next week. Still expecting a closed upper low to move onto the CA coast, pushing east towards the middle of next week. Beyond that, models begin to diverge greatly, moving the wave at different speeds and with different tracks, which will have palpable impacts on how our local weather evolves over the next week. That being said, NBM consensus has leaned towards and overall cooler and wetter pattern for our area, particularly Tuesday through Thursday over portions of our southern mountains. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain near or just below seasonal levels.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Upper low over ID will push east in WY this evening, continuing moist southwest flow across the Four Corners and into CO. It will also force a cold front south across the eastern CO plains this evening which will be instrumental in developing convection across the Palmer Divide and eastern plains tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated for much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

KCOS and KPUB: Have PROB30 for -TSRA between 21z and 03z in the TAF as well as variable gusts to 35 kts.

KALS: SW winds gusting to 25 kts today between 20z and 01z. There will be some convection over the surrounding higher terrain, but confidence is low that it will cross terminal so did not mention.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.