textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected over the higher terrain again today, with the best chance for a storm along the Continental Divide.

- Moisture increases from Wednesday into the weekend over the mountains, bringing widespread thunderstorms and significant rainfall to the Continental Divide, with lighter amounts farther east over most interior valleys and the eastern mountains.

- I-25 corridor and eastern plains remain mostly dry and hot through the week into the weekend, before moisture begins to creep eastward, potentially bringing storms to areas east of the mountains early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Little change in the weather pattern today, with upper ridge from the Rockies into the nrn plains and main tap of mid-level moisture staying mostly west of Colorado through the day. Still enough residual moisture in place for another round of isolated afternoon storms over the higher terrain, with the best chance for storms over the Eastern San Juans, where moisture is slightly deeper. Little chance for a storm from the eastern mountain slopes eastward through I-25 and out onto the plains, as any mountain convection will continue to drift westward under weak e-ne steering flow. Max temps today will run within a couple degf of Monday's numbers.

Upper ridge weakens slightly on Wed, with deeper influx of moisture into wrn Colorado and along the Continental Divide. Should see a corresponding increase in thunderstorm coverage/intensity here, with some pockets of heavier rainfall likely. Will need to monitor the Willow Burn Scar for flash flooding, as rainfall rates will be on the upswing with deeper moisture. Remaining high terrain/interior valleys will see an uptick in convection as well Wed afternoon/evening, though in general rainfall away from the Divide will be spotter/lighter. I-25/plains will continue to miss most rainfall, as steering currents remain unfavorable for storms to move off the mountains and onto the plains. With more clouds and moisture, max temps will drift downward a few degf over the mountains, with I-25/plains little changed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Wetter pattern continues Thu/Fri over the mountains, especially the Continental Divide, as mid-level moisture tap remains over wrn CO. Again, storm coverage and strength will taper off east of the Divide, though most high terrain/high valleys will see at least a chance of storms and wetting rainfall both days. Could see 3 day (Wed/Thu/Fri) total rainfall over an inch across the ern San Juans, with pockets of near an inch farther north into the Sawatch Range. Still not much chance of any storms from I-25 eastward as unfavorable steering flow persists. Beginning to wonder if weekend may end up hotter/drier at many locations, as 14/00z deterministic models show center of the upper high reforming over CO/UT, pushing deeper moisture and associated storm chances back south and west. NDFD/WPC extended grids don't show much of a decrease in pops at this point, but won't be surprised it trend is toward drier over the next day or two. Blended max temp guidance already picking up on the hotter trend, with upper 90s/near 100f readings on the plains both Sat/Sun. Still looking at a potential upswing in convection area-wide starting Mon into next week as moisture plume returns and upper level flow takes on a more wly component, pushing any mountain convection out onto the plains. Still a rather low confidence solution however, as a good deal of variance in the location/strength of the upper high center exists among the various models/ensembles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated convection will develop across the higher terrain this afternoon, but is not expected to affect terminals. Surface winds will predominantly be out of the E-SE through the period, with gusts to 22 kts possible between 19z and 06z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.