textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and warmer Thu, with increasing fire danger over the central and eastern mountains

- Mainly dry and warm Fri, then increasing precipitation chances over the northern half of the region Saturday and Sunday, while southern areas see higher fire danger both days

- Much cooler with precipitation chances area-wide on Monday and Tuesday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Weak convection developing over the mountains this afternoon, with showers already into the I-25 corridor around Trinidad as of 2 pm. Haven't seen any lightning yet, but expect to eventually see a few strikes with isolated stronger convection as afternoon wears on. Highest pops into early evening will remain over the mountains, lower on the plains, though CAMs point to portions of Las Animas County east of Trinidad having the potential for a stronger storm in the 22z-00z time frame. Mainly wind and sprinkles with most activity, wind gusts to 50 mph, brief rainfall and maybe some pea size hail possible with the strongest storms. Activity diminishes over the plains/valleys quickly this evening with loss of heating, while a few showers could linger along the Continental Divide into early Thu morning, before drier air moves into the region around sunrise.

On Thu, dry swly flow develops as s/w trough moves by well the north along the Canadian border. Looks like we'll have just enough wind (7h winds 20-30 kts, 5h winds around 30 kts) for critical fire weather conditions to develop over the central mountains/upper Arkansas Valley and Sangres/Wets to warrant a Red Flag Warning, and have converted current watch to a warning for these areas as a result. Windiest spots look to be over the higher peaks of the Sawatch Range, with some stronger gusts funneling through the Arkansas Valley from Salida to Canon City as well. On the plains, patchy critical conditions are possible, though winds diminish slightly and humidity improves a few percent by late afternoon, so will hold off on a highlight here for now. Shower/thunderstorm chances look limited, with an isolated storm possible along the Palmer Divide and over the far southeast plains, where some very shallow moisture sneaks westward by late afternoon. Maxes Thu will end up well above average, with highs in the 80s/90s most valleys and across the plains, 60s/70s mountains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Weak cold front Thu night will usher in some slightly cooler air for Friday, along with a little less wind at most locations. Post-frontal upslope flow may try to wring out some weak convection over the ern mountains/Raton Mesa by late afternoon, though low level air mass looks too dry to support more than a wind/sprinkles with most activity. Although surface relative humidity will remain low (10-15 percent range) on Friday, fire danger looks lower, as winds aloft weaken and only brief pockets of afternoon gustiness develop. W-SW flow aloft increases on Friday, while slightly deep low level moisture (dewpoints in the 40s) sloshes back west toward the mountains. Best chance for afternoon storms will over the extreme northern half of the area where better moisture/instability/lift coincide, with highest pops in the Pikes Peak region and over the central mountains. Fire danger will increase as winds ramp up and air mass over the southern half of the area remains dry, though forecast wind speeds suggest only spotty critical conditions at this point. Max temps Sat near to a degree or two warmer than Fri expected.

Strong upper trough digs into the Rockies Sun, with brisk southwest flow across Colorado. Surface front ends up somewhere on the ern plains Sun afternoon, as low pressure spins in the sern corner of CO by late day. Ahead of the front, strong winds and very low relative humidity with high fire danger likely, while areas behind the boundary will be much cooler with increasing shower chances by Sun afternoon/evening. Highway 50 looks like a good first guess for a frontal position by late Sunday afternoon, though solutions range from far nern CO to the NM border, so still a good deal of variability in the forecast at this point. Precip chances Sun again look limited to the nrn edge of the area, as best forcing remains across nrn CO into WY.

Better precip chances develop Mon into Tue, as secondary cold front sweeps through and upper level energy continues drop into the Rockies, though again best forcing may end up just north of the region. It will be much cooler area-wide Mon/Tue, with maxes 10-20 degf lower than weekend numbers at many locations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Low chance (10-20 percent) of a -shra this afternoon at all terminals, but won't include at this time and just monitor radar trends for any increased potential later today. All sites could see a period (22z-02z) of gusty/erratic outflow winds from distant convection/virga, with brief gusts to 40 kts possible. Any showers end this evening, with decreasing clouds and winds after 02z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220- 222-225.