textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler behind passing front today, with a showers and storms developing this evening and continuing into the overnight hours.

- Warming and drying trend for Thursday and Friday, with spotty critical fire weather conditions developing over and near the higher terrain.

- Up and down weather pattern for the weekend into early next week, as a series of passing weather systems brings cooler and then warmer temperatures along with chances of precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 114 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has weak to moderate westerly flow aloft across the region, with a short wave translating through the stronger flow across the Northern Rockies at this time. GOES water vapor and blended total water vapor imagery continues to indicate ample subtropical moisture in place across the Desert SW across the Southern Rockies and into southeast Colorado and the Central High Plains, along with distinct drying across the Intermountain West into the eastern Great Basin and western Colorado at this time. Regional radars are indicating showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the southeast plains lifting out into western Kansas, with clouds clearing from west to east at this time.

For today and tonight, the passing Northern Rockies wave remains progged to send a cold front across eastern Colorado through the morning, with breezy northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph developing behind the front across the Palmer Dvd between 10Z-12Z, which continues to spread south across the rest of the southeast Colorado through mid morning. Winds become more east to southeast upslope through the late morning and afternoon across the plains, while flow aloft remains west to northwest as the tail end of said Northern Rockies short wave translates across the east through tonight.

Said passing front and developing upslope flow through the afternoon will keep temperatures around seasonal levels today across the plains with highs expected to be mainly in the 80s. Temperatures at to slightly above seasonal levels remain across the higher terrain with highs in 60s and 70s, with 80s for the high mountain valleys. Drier air working into south central Colorado will limit convection across the ContDvd, however, there will be enough moisture and potential instability for a few showers and storms across southeast mtns and plains, especially across the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns, Raton Mesa, and the Southern Tier with stalled front just south across northeastern New Mexico.

Latest model data continues to support increasing convective development across the southeast plains through the late afternoon and evening, as said stalled front lifts back north across the plains overnight. This leads to scattered showers and storms developing and continuing within modest elevated instability across the plains. Best coverage looks to be across the Raton Mesa and into the far southeast plains, where low level jet strengthens overnight, leading to a few possible stronger storms, with some higher res models developing helicity swaths across the plains overnight. Have also spread pops northward across the I-25 Corridor and northern portions of the plains, with ample moisture and some uvv from the tail end of the Northern Rockies wave translating into the High Plains. With that said, we will need to continue to monitor the how far north said convective development is and for any possible flooding issues for the Aspen Acres burn area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 114 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Drier air continues to move into ContDvd region and interior Valleys Thursday and Friday, with breezy westerly winds likely developing spotty critical fire weather conditions across the Central Mtns and Upper Arkansas river valley on Thursday, which spreads into portions of the San Luis Valley and the middle Arkansas river valley on Friday. Otherwise, enough moisture remains in place across the Raton Mesa and Southern Tier to support chances of storms on Thursday, with isolated showers and storms moving back into the ContDvd region on Friday. Temperatures warm up slightly on Thursday and back to 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms on Friday.

For Saturday and into early next week, models continue to indicate ebbs and flows of available moisture and forcing as occasional waves translate through the moderate to strong westerly flow aloft across the Northern Tier. This will bring chances of precipitation and cooler temperatures with possible fronts across the Plains on Saturday and again on Monday. There could be another influx of subtropical moisture across the Desert SW into western Colorado into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

For KALS, generally light winds through the period with some mid- level cloud cover.

For KCOS and KPUB, a cold front will move in later this morning, bringing gusts around 25 knots for a few hours. Winds behind the front will turn more southeasterly throughout the day, with some passing mid-level clouds.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the plains later this evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence in coverage is still too low to include mention in the KCOS TAF, but given the potential for outflow and better moisture, have included a PROB30 for KPUB. These showers should move off to the east prior to the end of this 24 hour forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.