textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Abundant monsoonal moisture will bring rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms areawide through Thursday.

- Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain bringing increased flash flooding concerns, especially for area burn scars, along with the potential for strong outflow winds and hail.

- Temperatures at to slightly above normal through the week before a warming and drying trend for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 157 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has the center of a large upper high across northeastern New Mexico, with modest west to southwest flow aloft in place across the Central and Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor imagery also has a weak embedded wave translating through the westerly flow aloft, with GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicating PWATs running between 120-150 percent of normal (1 to 1.40 inches) across south central and southeast Colorado, with more sub-tropical moisture lifting north and east into the Desert Southwest and eastern Great Basin at this time. Said embedded disturbance is aiding in ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast Colorado at this time.

Latest model data keeps abundant moisture in place within continued modest westerly flow across the region through the day, with another embedded wave across the eastern Great Basin, expected to translate through the flow through the evening. The abundant moisture, combined with strong solar heating, uvv from the passing wave, and easterly upslope across the plains, will develop scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain from the late morning through the late evening, with storms pushing east into a more unstable atmosphere across the I-25 Corridor and southeast plains through the afternoon and evening. Storms will be efficient rain makers, and with potential for training storms across the eastern mtns, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn area from noon through midnight. The modest westerly flow will keep storms moving today, however, with very juicy airmass in place, will also see heavy rain and localized flash flooding across the southeast plains, where the latest WPC Excessive Rain Outlook has a slight risk. Also, can not rule out the potential for strong to severe storms, generally along and east of the I-25 Corridor and north of Highway 50, where upslope flow and modest shear will be maximized. Main threats, other than the heavy rain, will be wind gusts to around 60 mph and hail generally less than an inch in diameter. Storms will likely produce frequent of lightning as well, however, the rain will hopefully be enough to quell fire starts. Convection diminishes and ends west to east through the late evening, partially clearing skies through early Wednesday morning. With slight cooling aloft and expected early convection, high temperatures will be in the 90s to around 100 across the southeast plains, with 60s, 70s and 80s expected across the higher terrain. Overnight lows should also be cooler and closer to seasonal norms in the 60s across the plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 157 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A similar set up remains for Wednesday, as ample moisture remains in place, along with another progged wave translating through the modest westerly flow in place across the region. Scattered to numerous storms develop across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon, and push out across the plains through the evening. We will likely need another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn area again on Wednesday, and depending on much rain falls today, there could be the potential to expand watches further east across the plains.

Longer term model and ensemble data continue to support drier air working back into the Rockies for the end of the week into the weekend and early next week, as the upper ridge builds back into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin region, bringing more north to northwest flow aloft into the Rockies. There will likely be enough residual moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain through the weekend, though storms will likely be on the drier side and less efficient rain makers. Temperatures will start to warm back to above seasonal levels into early next week, as the ridge starts to build back into the Rockies.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Any ongoing showers and storms around the TAF sites early during this TAF period are expected to quickly dissipate heading into the overnight hours, with dry conditions returning by the morning. With that said, another round of showers and storms is expected tomorrow afternoon, especially for KCOS and KPUB. Any thunderstorm during this TAF period may bring periods of reduced visibility, lightning, and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will be in place through a majority of this TAF period, with winds also remaining relatively light outside of thunderstorm influence, around and less than 10 knots.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.