textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon across the southwest mountains.

- Showers and storms will continue over the mountains for a few more days, turning to snow by Wednesday.

- The plains will remain warm and largely dry through Tuesday.

- First freeze for the high valleys Wednesday night?

- A cold front moves in by Wednesday, bringing colder and wetter conditions to the region, though uncertainty in the forecast increases after that.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Flow aloft continues to increase out of the southwest, as a deep upper trough continues building in over the west coast. Through the rest of today, this flow will allow for showers and some thunderstorms to spread over the higher terrain, mainly over the eastern San Juans, with more scattered activity across the rest of the Continental Divide. For the San Juans specifically, storm coverage and intensity will be highest, with a few stronger isolated thunderstorms possible. Main impact concerns will be heavy rainfall and maybe some hail. Parameters continue to support this in the models, with 300-500 J/kg of CAPE, and anywhere from 40-60 knots of bulk shear. A severe storm or two, while not the most likely outcome, certainly cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Even without those concerns, some models place an inch or more of QPF over the San Juans by tomorrow morning, which could lead to localized flooding concerns as well.

Across the rest of our area, the eastern plains will remain hot today, with highs reaching the low-mid 80s in places. Meanwhile, gusty winds will continue across the region into tomorrow, mainly out of the southwest. While one or two showers may blow off the mountains and onto the I-25 corridor, most areas east of the mountains will remain dry today, and anything that does push further east is not expected to last very long.

Monday...

Upper trough will deepen over the western states while slowly pushing east. This will actually give us a brief lull in convective activity, as the best moisture plume is pushed northwest of our forecast area. Even so, some isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity will still be possible over portions of the Continental Divide in the afternoon, mainly just the San Juans. High temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than today, with gusty SW winds across the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Long-term forecast still remains complex and dynamically changing, however models have at least come into better agreement regarding the onset of the system, though impacts overall appear to be a bit less than they did with the last few days' worth of model runs.

Tuesday...

Upper low continues to dive south and slowly moving east, heading through Nevada and towards the Four Corners throughout the day. Southwest winds will increase aloft, which will bring more moisture into the mountains, along with increasingly cold air. High temps will cool off a bit compared to Sun-Mon, but only by a few degrees. Tuesday evening into Tuesday Night, a cold front will push down over the plains. This will be when the full changeover from rain to snow will occur over our higher mountains, while moisture finally increases over the plains with more widespread showers along and behind the passing front. That being said, latest guidance is coming in a bit slower compared to previous runs, so the onset of the front and moisture out east may be delayed until Weds morning.

Wednesday Onwards...

Wednesday is looking much cooler, with highs in the 50s-60s, with more widespread precipitation chances across our CWA behind the passing cold front. We may also see the chance for sub-freezing temperatures over the high valleys Weds Night, so take precautions for any exposed plumbing and sensitive vegetation.

Models continue to struggle with the back half of this week. Initial, broader trends suggest that the main axis of the upper trough will begin to push east of our area late Thursday into Friday, though some outlier model solutions retrograde the low back to the southwest and trap it under a blocking pattern for several days. There is a little more consistency shown in this morning's data with a ridge building in once the initial trough has passed us by, leading to a slight warmup into this weekend, along with drier conditions returning for at least a few days. That being said, with so much variation in the solutions, still need to wait and see how models handle the progression of the upper low over the next couple of days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be over the San Luis Valley until around midnight tonight, so a PROB30 group remains at KALS until that time. During this time if a thunderstorm develops over the site, there will be a chance at MVFR to IFR conditions. Persistent South-Southwesterly winds will continue overnight at KALS, strengthening late tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected outside of the thunderstorm period tonight.

For KPUB and KCOS, the main concern is south-southwest winds dissipating tonight and redeveloping late tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.