textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue into this evening.

- Moisture increases through this weekend over the mountains. Chances for moderate to heavy rain will increase along with flash flooding concerns over burn scars.

- Eastern plains remain mostly dry for now, with temperatures slightly above average. Hints at more widespread moisture next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The rest of this afternoon, isolated-scattered convection will continue over the higher terrain, mainly producing gusty outflow winds and some lightning. Will have to keep an eye on any storms close to burn scar areas, but otherwise precipitation will be light with little in the way of expected impacts.

High pressure overhead weakens a bit on Wednesday, allowing a better influx of moisture into the Continental Divide. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will noticeably increase from today, with some brief moderate to heavy rainfall possible at times. Main concern will be the Willow Burn Scar, as any accumulating rainfall could pose a flash flooding threat. The rest of the terrain will generally see lighter rainfall, along with more gusty winds and lightning. Meanwhile, easterly steering flow at the mid-levels will keep the plains and I-25 dry once again. Temperatures will be very similar to today's highs.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Moisture will continue increasing over the region through the end of this week, as the upper ridge slowly shifts off to the north- northeast. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain, with best coverage and chances over the Continental Divide. Coverage and intensity of storms will increase, with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall expected across the region. This will pose a flash flooding concern over new burn scars, and conditions will need to be closely monitored. Further east, very little in terms of expected precip east of the mountains as dry air remains in place at the lower levels and flow aloft keeps the moisture back in the mountains.

Looking into this weekend, and eventually next week, confidence in model solutions decrease, though with a few consistencies to keep track of. The upper ridge is expected to remain in place over our region, meaning that moisture will still be making its way into the mountains. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist for the mountains, with QPF forecasts likely increasing with time. What we get on the plains will depend on the winds. If flow manages to take on a more westerly component, which several deterministic models support, this could help push moisture further east and give us some showers and storms on the plains next week. Ensemble guidance is still generally show a good range of different solutions, so will have to resolve those details closer to date. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain steady through the next several days, with highs in the 80s-90s. Over the weekend, temps will increase a bit more above average over the eastern plains, with some areas climbing into the low triple digits.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds will gust from the SE this afternoon, 20-25 knots at all three terminals. Other than a low-end chance for some passing showers prior to 00Z at KALS, no impacts from showers are expected this forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.