textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and possible thunderstorms due to passing waves are possible for the mountains Friday and Saturday.

- Very heavy rainfall for the San Juan Mountains will likely lead to another round of flooding, transitioning to snow over the mountains late in the event.

- A strong cold front will arrive on the Plains Monday, with winds in excess of 40 mph. Winds could prevail into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 452 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

After coordination with surrounding offices, went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of the plains late tonight through tomorrow morning. It is effect for Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM tomorrow morning. Visibility is expected to drop down to less than 1/4 mile at times within the advisory area, and motorists are urged to allow extra travel time and stopping distance when driving in those areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Quiet weather is expected across the CWA today. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, with the potential for some areas in the southern plains to reach 70. There is a chance for an isolated shower to reach into far SE CO tonight as some energy moves through the TX/OK panhandle, but weaker forcing and moisture will keep any precipitation very limited.

Fog returns to the eastern plains Friday morning as an unusually moist low-level airmass remains in place. Fog is expected to generally stay east of Pueblo County. Visibility will rapidly decrease in this area, falling to around 1-3 miles near the Kansas border. Remember to exercise caution when travailing. Fog will clear around 10am.

Friday afternoon will bring a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far SE CO. The main instability axis, moisture, and forcing are all displaced to our south, however the northern extent may clip part of our CWA. With MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg lingering, the possibility of a stray thunderstorm developing and crossing the SE CO border cannot be ruled out. Severe thresholds are not expected to be met.

Overnight Friday, a sfc trough will develop across eastern UT and western CO. This will act to bring the first wave of precipitation into the San Juans in association with the next system.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

There is good agreement through much of the extended period, with a heavy rainfall event and very high elevation snowfall along the Continental Divide. Mountain flooding and windy conditions on the Plains are likely.

Saturday...a weak upper wave embedded in southwest flow will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide by the afternoon. Lightning will be the main concern with any thunderstorms.

Saturday night through Monday...two upper waves are forecast to combine across southern Colorado during this period. The first, and upper wave moving in off the Baja Coast is forecast to lift northeast across the Desert Southwest, ahead of a secondary system out of the Pacific Northwest. The first upper wave will begin to impact the Continental Divide Saturday night into Sunday morning. PWAT values in excess of 0.8 to 1.1 inches will spread north across Colorado by Sunday morning. This will help promote heavy rainfall across the San Juan Range on Sunday. Snow levels will initially be high, above 12 kft, and the tropical nature help to produce heavy rainfall on Sunday. There could be a few lightning strikes embedded over the mountains. Flooding on area streams and rivers is likely across the San Juan Mountains, down into the San Luis Valley. This will be monitored closely.

Moving into Sunday night, the secondary wave will quickly fill in behind the initial wave. This will help lower snow levels to near 8500 feet by Monday morning. Precipitation will remain heavy across the San Juan Range. For elevations above 10 kft, snow probabilities increase, with 10 to 15 inches possible Sunday night into Monday. Lower elevations will continue to moderate to periods of heavy rainfall, and continued flooding potential.

Across the Plains, a cold front will arrive Monday morning, with very strong winds developing behind the northerly push. Model guidance in general agreement with showers developing along the Eastern Mountains, south along the Raton Mesa by late morning. This activity will continue south and east through the afternoon. At this time, around a quarter to half inch of rainfall is possible along the lee slopes and Raton Ridge before precipitation ends Monday evening. Snow levels on the eastern side will remain high, lower to near 9 kft by Monday afternoon. Snow amounts of a couple inches are possible up high.

East on the Plains, wind will be the main concern. Widespread strong northerly winds are forecast to prevail Monday afternoon and night. Gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible, especially out near the Kansas border. There is some guidance indicating winds could be stronger, approaching 50 mph. We will continue to monitor wind conditions as the storm system approaches.

Temperatures look to remain warm both Sunday and Monday across the Plains. Highs in the 60s are forecast for Sunday, with around 5 to 10 degrees cooling behind the cold front on Monday, down into the 50s and lower 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday...the upper storm system is forecast to park itself across eastern Kansas for mid week. While precipitation come to an end Monday evening, the tight pressure gradient will keep winds gusting across the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, before upper level ridging build across southern Colorado on Thursday. Temperatures will remain cool, with mostly 50s across the lower elevations. Winds with gusts 30 to 40 mph will remain possible on the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, decreasing on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Significant mid and high level cloud deck over the western half of the forecast area and the I-25 Corridor, affecting the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. As has been the case the past few nights, areas of fog and low stratus expected to push in across portions of the eastern plains tonight through Fri morning, producing IFR/LIFR conditions. Mentioned VCFG for KCOS, though confidence is low that it will directly affect terminal. Did include TEMPO group for LIFR fog for PUB from 10z-14z, though it may begin an hr or two earlier, and last until 16z. Will amend as needed. KALS remains VFR through the forecast period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Another round of heavy rainfall is forecast for the San Juan Mountains beginning late Saturday night, and prevailing into Monday afternoon. Two components will accompany this storm. The first will arrive from the Eastern Pacific, with subtropical moisture spreading across the region. Warm temperatures will keep initial snow levels high, above 12 kft on Sunday and Sunday evening. There are a couple of concerns here...one being already saturated soils due to the previous storm system. The second being high snow water equivalent (SWE) values in the current snow pack. Current SWE values from SNOTEl sites are currently in the 2-5 inch range. With high snow levels with the first part of the storm, 1 to 3 inches of liquid QPF will likely fall on this high water content snow, leading to melting and extra runoff. With the second part of the storm system Sunday night into Monday, snow levels will fall to near 8500 to 9000 feet, with heavy wet snow (10 to 15 inches) possible before precipitation ends Monday late afternoon or evening. There is a very high potential for another round of flooding across the San Juan Range, down into the San Luis Valley, including the Rio Grande, Conejos, and San Antonio Rivers. Pay attention to the forecast for the latest updates to the forecast.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ086-089-093-095>098.