textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding continue through Sunday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains both days.

- Thunderstorm activity a little less widespread for Monday as drier air works in from the west.

- Warmer and drier for the rest of next week with isolated thunderstorms over the mountains most days.

- A cool front brings an uptick in thunderstorms, with the potential for strong to severe storms for the southeast mountains and plains Wed and Thu.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Monsoon moisture with embedded disturbances continues to stream up from the southwest across southern CO. Many areas receive rainfall across the plains on Friday with a broad swath of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts across Las Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties. Another area of 1-2 inch rainfall amounts fell across northern Teller and El Paso counties. With more rainfall possible today, opted to expand Flash Flood Watches across most of the southeast plains except Baca county where rainfall the past couple days has been much lighter.

Thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight hours across the southeast plains with one or more thunderstorm clusters developing and advancing east southeastward off the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa regions. Mean CAPE off HREF ranges from up to 1000 J/kg along the I-25 corridor to close to 2000 J/kg across the far eastern plains with stronger deep layer shears (30-35kts) vs yesterday. This should support a few more severe thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds around 60 mph or greater and hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern, especially for burn scars, urban areas and locations with already saturated soil conditions. Kept pops going well into the night as most CAMS suggest thunderstorm regeneration along the southeast mountains pushing off into the adjacent plains. Confidence is greatest for persistent thunderstorm regeneration to the north of highway 50 and out across Baca county along a reinforcing surge of a cold front. Kept low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance.

A similar scenario will play out for Sunday though the axis of higher CAPE will push westward to along the I-25 corridor where enhanced easterly upslope flow will keep dew points in the upper 50s to close to 60. With monsoon moisture still over the region combined with a stronger focus for thunderstorm develop across the southeast mountains, Sunday looks like another high end day (perhaps higher risk than today) for flash flooding of the Aspen Acres Burn scar. Have issued another Flash Flood Watch for this area. Thunderstorms will push eastward across the plains where higher CAPE and better shear will reside, resulting in another round of strong to severe thunderstorms, this time favoring the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. Large hail and damaging winds will be the most likely threats. A cap farther east may take a little longer to erode on Sunday, but it still looks like sufficient surface heating will take place for thunderstorms to spread eastward into the evening with some regeneration possible after dark along the I-25 corridor as a disturbance aloft moves through the flow. -KT

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A drying trend commences on Monday though southern and eastern areas will see one more round of heavy rain producing thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible across the plains where shears will range from 25 to 35 kts in the afternoon. Flash Flooding of Aspen Acres burn scar still looks possible though thunderstorm coverage may be a little less which may reduce the risk some.

The upper high expands westward for Tuesday then amplifies across the western U.S. through mid week as a shortwave trough passes by to the north and east on Wednesday. Hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions will return for Tuesday with highs rebounding into the mid to upper 90s across the plains. A cold front brings another uptick in thunderstorms to the southeast mountains and plains Wednesday and possibly Thursday. With southeasterly low level flow beneath northwest flow aloft, shear will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as long as low level moisture and sufficient CAPE is maintained. There is some drying coming in from the north on Thursday which could shunt the strong to severe storm potential to south of highway 50 on Thursday.

Otherwise...warmer weather returns for Friday into the weekend with a southerly moisture tap out west recirculating through the upper high bringing another gradual moistening along with increasing thunderstorm chances across the mountains next weekend. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around 18z and spread off into KCOS and KPUB after 20-21z. Some brief MVFR cigs/vis will be possible with any stronger storms should they impact the terminals, along with gusty outflow winds up to 50 kts. Some small hail and torrential rainfall could also accompany the stronger cells. Storms will pull east of the terminals by 00-01z but another round will move off the mountains during the evening affecting KCOS and possibly KPUB through 06z-07z. Confidence is greatest at KCOS where a PROB30 group will cover this potential. Less confidence exists for KPUB so kept this a prevailing VCSH for now. Winds will become dominated by thunderstorm outflows and further AMDs may be needed to capture timing of wind shifts through the evening. Otherwise, winds will settle into a north to northwest component under 10 kts overnight and increase from the southeast at both terminals on Sun with another round of showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will be possible to the north of KALS but are less likely to impact the terminals. North winds will spread into KALS between 00-01z from decaying thunderstorm outflows with speeds around 10-15 kts. Clearing skies and light winds will return by 06z. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ079-080-086. Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ081-082-084- 085-087>089-093>098.