textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in place for Prowers and Baca Counties for Monday afternoon and evening.

- Very dangerous fire weather conditions forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, with wind gusts 50 to 60 mph and humidity values under 10 percent for most of southern Colorado.

- Chances for precipitation go up Friday into next weekend, but details are still uncertain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows clear skies across southern Colorado. Temperatures have warmed nicely with most of the lower elevations in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Overall, winds are light, expect across Baca County, where lee troughing has southerly winds gusting near 40 mph. The Red Flag for Baca County looks good for this afternoon and evening.

Tonight and Monday...upper level high pressure to the west will drift eastward through Monday. This will allow for quiet weather to persist through Monday afternoon. Overnight lows will fall off into the 30s and 40s across the Plains, with the coolest temperatures along the lower Arkansas River Valley, while the San Luis Valley fall off into the 20s. For Monday, weak energy moving through the upper ridge will lead to a few light rain or snow showers along the Continental Divide by the afternoon. No accumulations are expected. Across the Plains, lee troughing will once again lead to gusty winds near the Kansas border, and the fire weather watch for Prowers and Baca Counties has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for winds and low humidity. Temperatures will continue to warm, with 70s to mid 80s across the Plains, and near 70 for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Models remain in good agreement through mid week, with differences later this week into next weekend. The most critical days will be Wednesday and Thursday, with widespread fire weather conditions across southern Colorado.

Monday night through Tuesday...the upper level ridge across Colorado will slowly shift east into the Central Plains through Tuesday evening. Quiet weather will remain in place, with only a couple rain and snow showers possible along the Continental Divide due to energy moving through the ridge. Temperatures will remain warm on the Plains with upper 70s to upper 80s. With the upper ridge axis overhead, winds should remain light and no fire weather highlights are in effect for Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...an upper trough is forecast to move out of the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains for mid week. With the current storm track, our main concern during this period will be very dangerous fire weather conditions. On Wednesday, southwest flow increases substantially across southern Colorado, with very dry air in place. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph are possible, with humidity values well under 10 percent, producing the dangerous fire weather conditions. Mixing will also help boost temperatures, with highs on the Plains in the 80s to lower 90s. The upper trough continues to lift northeast into Wyoming and Northern Plains on Thursday. Cooler air will arrive Thursday morning, with high temperatures only in the 60s and 70s. But, given the storm track, dry, strong westerly flow will continue into Thursday afternoon. West winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph will remain possible along with humidity values under 10 percent through Thursday afternoon. The surface cold front looks to hold off on arriving until Thursday evening, which will finally switch winds northerly. As for precipitation, a few snow showers will remain possible, mainly along the Continental Divide, spreading northeast into the Palmer Divide region by late Thursday.

Friday into Sunday...active weather looks to continue into next week, but there are differences in the deterministic guidance and ensembles. The upper pattern will favor an upper low over south central Canada, with energy rotating south from the Northern Rockies, while moisture from the Desert Southwest begins to lift north into Colorado. Waves from the north will bring cold fronts to the area, while moisture from the south will allow for precipitation chances during the weekend. Given the uncertainty of individual waves, kept low chances for precipitation for the region through the weekend. High temperatures will be cooler, with 60s and 70s for the Plains each day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 502 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will continues to remain around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period, with a slight increase in magnitude tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of high level clouds will persist.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ236-237. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ237.