textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm through the extended period, with mostly 70s across the lower elevations.

- A few showers possible mainly along the Continental Divide Monday and Tuesday.

- Heavy precipitation possible mid to late week, mainly over the higher terrain, with uncertainty on the Plains as the storm system moves away from the area Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows clear skies across southern Colorado early this morning due to upper level high pressure across the region. Weak winds and strong radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees for much of the Plains by morning. Areas west of I-25 may see weak westerly winds which may keep temperatures at or near freezing into the morning hours. Those with sensitive outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them.

Today and tonight...upper level high pressure will sit across Colorado through tonight with quiet weather across the region. Temperatures will warm nicely this afternoon, with much of the Plains reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s after a cold start. A few spotty fire weather conditions will be possible across Baca County this afternoon due to low humidity values and occasional wind gusts. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley sees mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Good agreement between the various model solutions and ensembles through the extended period. The main concern through the extended period is a storm system slated for mid to late week impacting mountain areas.

Sunday through Tuesday...persistent southwest flow will prevail across southern Colorado into early next week. Two upper waves embedded in the flow will lead to isolated to scattered mountains showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions will prevail on Sunday as upper energy begins to lift out of Arizona. Sunday temperatures will be warm, with mostly lower to mid 70s across the Plains. An isolated shower may be possible across the San Juan Range by late Sunday afternoon as energy approaches.

The upper energy over Arizona will track northeast across Colorado on Monday. Expected shower coverage to increase across the Continental Divide Sunday night and continue through Monday afternoon. Not much cold air with this energy, and snow levels will be high, above 12-13 kft. A quick inch or two may be possible above these elevations across the San Juans. As the upper wave tracks northeast, a few showers may spread northeast into Teller County and the Palmer Divide Monday evening. Not much moisture to work with unfavorable southwest flow aloft will likely limit precipitation to just a few light showers if anything at all. The Plains look to remain dry as this energy moves northeast.

By Tuesday, an upper low moves into the West Coast with moisture moving northward out of the tropics. This will help prime the area for the upper storm system for mid to late week. A few light showers will remain possible along the Continental Divide Tuesday due to persistent southwest flow and embedded energy.

A weak boundary will arrive on Monday, knocking 3 to 5 degrees off highs Monday afternoon. Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday back into the lower to mid 70s across the Plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...a strong upper level low is forecast to track slowly east from southern California, northeast across Colorado for mid to late week. Plenty of deep tropical moisture with PWAT values of 0.8-1.1 inches will spread northward on Wednesday and prevail across Colorado Wednesday into Thursday. Strong orographic moisture flow will lead to heavy precipitation along the Continental Divide, favoring the San Juan Range and La Garita Mountains. Model guidance and ensembles support heavy rainfall, with Wolf Creek Pass QPF progs of 1-3 inches (the Canadian has higher amounts) during this period. Again, not much cold air with this system, with snow levels likely above 12-13 kft. There could be significant snow accumulations for the high peaks of the San Juan, La Garita and southern Sangre de Cristo ranges. At this time, the southwest flow will likely keep showers west of I-25 during this period, with a majority of the Plains remaining dry. Temperatures on the Plains will remain mild with 70s to near 80 for highs.

For the later part of the extended period, much will depend on how this upper system ejects across the state. The ECMWF and Canadian have remain consistent, lifting the upper low away from Colorado Friday into Saturday with a gradual drying trend. This was similar to the 18z GFS. The 00z GFS reloads the upper low and sends a strong cold front south across the Plains on Saturday, with heavy precipitation with the cold front. The NBM just has widespread low POPS across the Plains, and did not stray from this given the uncertainty for Friday and Saturday.

If you are traveling across the Mountains Wednesday into Thursday, be prepared for heavy precipitation, and very high elevation snowfall. This area has seen heavy rainfall over the past month, and could be prone to flash flooding and slides.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with light diurnal wind cycle under 12 kts expected.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ083>089- 093>099.