textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash Flood Watch in effect until 11 PM due to heavy rainfall potential on the Aspen Acres Burn scar.

- Warmer and drier conditions for the weekend into early next week with temperatures approaching and exceeding 100 degrees for the southeast plains Sunday and Monday.

- First round of Heat Advisories issued for the northern I-25 corridor Sunday. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of the southeast plains on Monday.

- Front for Tuesday will bring another uptick in thunderstorm chances with potential for heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding for the southeast mountains and plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Amplifying upper ridge out west will put CO under northwest aloft tonight and Saturday. Storms over the mountains and I-25 corridor will be moving southward through the evening, with a little better deep layer shear resulting in the potential for stronger storm strengths. High res models indicate a couple rounds of thunderstorms, initially peaking in the late afternoon and evening, with the potential for some regeneration across the Pikes Peak region/Park County around 8 PM which will drop southward into the overnight hours depending on the model. As stated earlier, repeated rounds of storms could lead to training storms for the vulnerable burn scar areas which is one nudging factor for putting up a flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar. Light easterly winds should keep dew points in the 50s banked up against the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains, with surface heating resulting in CAPEs of up to 1500 J/kg, which would support the potential for locally heavy rainfall, as well as some marginally severe hail and potential for damaging wind gusts. Greatest concern though will be the flash flood potential for the Aspen Acres Burn scar. Current watch goes until 11 PM and will maintain. 12z NAMNest shows another round of rain possible across this area through 2 AM, but it is the outlier in this later timing, and will maintain watch duration as is. Extensions can be made as better clarity is gained. If this later round does occur, it looks like it is being forced by some weak energy dropping down the the east side of the upper ridge. It is likely that storm strengths will be weaker with this final round.

Showers and thunderstorms will percolate southward through the overnight hours with gradual clearing towards morning. Drier air works in from the north on Saturday cutting back the afternoon thunderstorm potential. Dew points out west and in the interior valleys will drop back down into the 20s and 30s. There will be enough moisture for some isolated thunderstorms across the eastern and southwest mountains with a little better coverage towards the NM border in the afternoon. But the risk for burn scar flash flooding looks considerably lower and no flash flood watches are anticipated. Temperatures will be generally similar to a degree or two warmer than today.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The drying and warming trend continues for Sunday and Monday with temperatures across the plains anticipated to crest over 100 once again. Heat Advisories have been issued for the urban areas of the I-25 corridor where temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s put it into the higher end of the Heat Impact Levels. There could still be some isolated thunderstorms across the southern mountains, but these will be higher based with more of a gusty outflow wind potential, and only spotty moderate rainfall. Monday looks similar but a few degrees hotter and it is likely that more Heat Advisories will be needed over a more widespread area of the southeast plains. Will let later shifts hone down that area as we get closer. Highs up to 106 will be possible on Monday.

A cool front pushes into the southeast plains Monday night with low level flow shifting around from the east on Tuesday. This will bring another uptick in thunderstorms for the southeast mountains and plains depending on how quickly low level moisture advects back westward. This will increase the risk of flash flooding on Aspen Acres.

After a cool down for Tuesday, temperatures gradually warm again, but the area will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves bringing episodic thunderstorm chances to the area most days. Main monsoon tap looks suppressed to the south so moisture quality doesn't looks as high as it was this week. Precipitable waters remain around to a little below normal through the period. So the signal for burn scar flash flooding looks minimal for the time being. But temperatures will be rebounding back towards the century mark across the plains by late week. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon and move south southeastward, possibly affecting KALS, KCOS and KPUB in the 20z-03z timeframe. VFR cigs and brief MVFR vis with heavy rainfall will be the primary risks if storms directly impact the terminals. Gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 kts could also occur in the vicinity of storms along with small hail. Odds of a direct impact are on the lower side of the spectrum, so PROB30 was maintained for generally VFR conditions with gusty outflow winds up to 35 kts at all three taf sites. Winds will be dominated by thunderstorm outflows through the evening, with generally north to northwesterly directions for KCOS and KPUB...and easterly directions for KALS. Otherwise, expect clearing skies with winds settling into diurnal patterns overnight into Saturday morning. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086.