textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy with snow for the Continental Divide Monday, dry and windy elsewhere with critical fire weather conditions for the southern I- 25 corridor and adjacent plains.

- Unsettled pattern returns during the end of the week, bringing heightened precipitation chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 208 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Westerly winds across the high country have spread down into the valleys and through the gaps and passes into the adjacent plains this afternoon. With dew points in the teens and even single digits, critical fire weather conditions have materialized across portions of the southeast mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon. This will continue through the remainder of the afternoon before winds decouple around 5 PM.

We will reside in between systems tonight under swift southwest flow aloft. The strongest winds pull back up into the higher elevations overnight. Moisture increases across the Continental Divide late tonight ahead of the next system, with snow showers starting up towards dawn across the eastern San Juans where southwest flow will provide the best orographics. Snow will begin shortly thereafter across the Sawatch range. Strong winds will result in areas of blowing snow through Monday across these ranges. Amounts will remain light (1-2 inches), so no winter weather highlights expected though the wind driven nature to the snow could make for slick conditions and poor visibility at times over the higher mountain passes.

As the system crosses the mountains on Monday, strong westerly winds will spread into the lower elevations and adjacent plains through the afternoon with more areas likely to see wind gusts up to 35-40 mph as the system and upper jet translate across southeast CO in the afternoon. Models have trended drier, and will upgrade to Red Flag Warnings for counties along and south of the Arkansas River valley along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. It is possible that Red Flag Warnings may need to expand northward another tier of counties, but cooler temperatures keep humidity values just above the critical 15 percent threshold for El Paso and Teller counties. Some spotty elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for that area, but for now odds of seeing sustained 15% or lower humidity levels are below 20% in both the the HREF and REFS.

Otherwise, temperatures will continue above normal though around 5- 10 degrees cooler than those of Sunday due to some cooling aloft.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 338 AM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Monday Night - Saturday: For the rest of the week, some active weather is expected, especially near the end of the week. For the early part of the week, generally westerly flow is expected to be in place, with a pattern change for the end of the week as more troughing develops. Confidence in this pattern is medium to high (50-60%), given fairly good agreement between ensemble model guidance. Overall, precipitation chances will remain elevated across the mountains given persistent orographic forcing, with chances increasing area wide for the end of the week with the more unsettled pattern. Outside of that, breezy afternoons and pockets of mid to high level clouds are anticipated for the region. There could be some elevated fire weather conditions on Tuesday along portions of the I-25 corridor. Looking at temperatures, a slow downward trend is expected, with more seasonal temperatures returning during the end of the week as a system moves across.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1025 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with continued waves of passing high level clouds. Breezy west to southwest winds 15-25kts develop once again late Monday morning as flow aloft increases once again ahead of another passing wave.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for COZ228>233.