textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow increase in available moisture brings an increase in daily shower and thunderstorm coverage through the middle of the week.

- Storms over the higher terrain to be mainly dry, initially, leading to a heightened concern for new fire starts, while slow movement of storms also brings increasing threat of flash flooding, especially across new burn areas.

- A much warmer and drier pattern setting up for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest west to southwest flow aloft across the region, as short wave energy translates through the stronger westerly flow in place across Intermountain West and upper level ridging continues to build across the Southern Rockies. GOES Blended Total Water Vapor data indicates PWATs up to 50% of normal across western Colorado, and 50 to 100 percent of normal across eastern Colorado, with better available moisture in place across the Southern High Plains through the Southern Rockies and into the Desert SW at this time. Regional radars are indicating scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the higher terrain, with the greatest coverage across the Sangre de Cristo range at this time. As of 1 pm, there have also been a few showers and a thunderstorm on the western and southern periphery of the Aspen Acres burn area.

For tonight and tomorrow, latest model data continues to indicate flow aloft being weak south to southwest across western Colorado and weak north to northwest across eastern Colorado, as upper level ridging continues to build across the Rockies. This will bring a slight increase in available moisture to western Colorado and a slight decrease in available moisture across eastern Colorado through the day tomorrow.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly over and near the higher terrain this afternoon, will diminish through the early evening, with clearing skies through the overnight hours. Overnight lows look to be around seasonal levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the plains and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

With the more northerly flow expected across eastern Colorado tomorrow, would expect afternoon and evening shower and storms to be mainly tied to over and near the higher terrain, with the best coverage remaining across the southern Sangre de Cristo range. Showers and storms to be more pop and drop in nature, with gusty winds up to 40 mph and lightning being the main threats. With the slow movement of storms, can not rule out spotty moderate to heavy rainfall, which if this occurs over a newer burn area, could pose a flash flood threat, with poor soil conditions leading to rapid runoff. Highs tomorrow to be at to slightly warmer than today, especially across eastern Colorado, with temperatures back into the 90s to around the century mark across the lower Arkansas River Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

No big changes to the extended forecast, as upper level ridging across the Rockies in pushed south and west by waves translating through the more westerly flow across the Intermountain West and Northern Tier. This will bring a continued moistening of the atmosphere with available moisture streaming into the Rockies within weak west to southwest flow aloft. Ensemble mean data from ECS, GEFS and GEPS continue to indicate PWATs increasing to 100 to 130 percent of normal across the region, peaking Tuesday across western Colorado and Wednesday across eastern Colorado. This will support increasing chances and coverage of daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the work week. While widespread heavy rainfall does not look likely, the slow movement of storms and increasing coverage of wetting rains, will bring an increasing concern for flash flooding, mainly for recent burn areas, as it only takes one strong storm over the wrong place to cause problems, when dealing with higher terrain burn areas. With the increasing moisture and increasing chances of daily convection, temperatures to cool to around seasonal norms through the middle and end of the work week.

For the weekend into early next week, model data continues to indicate much warmer and drier conditions developing once again, as upper level high pressure builds back across the Four Corners late this week, and model data indicating a large 600DM upper high centered over the Central Rockies for the weekend into early next week. This will push temperatures back to well above normal levels, along with decreasing precipitation chances as available moisture is pushed south and west of the Rockies. Despite the very warm and dry conditions, generally weak winds under the "heat dome" should keep widespread critical fire weather conditions at bay.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hrs...with occasionally reduced vis (slantwise), mainly at ALS. High based -shra/-tsra will continue to develop over the higher terrain through the afternoon, with possible -tsra spreading east across the immediated adjacent plains through the late afternoon and early evening. Main impacts to terminals would be gusty outflow winds to near 40kts, and will carry prob30s for both COS and PUB for said impact from 21Z-01Z. Clearing skies overnight, with generally light diurnal wind regimes.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.