textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot across the Plains with a Heat Advisory for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Highs across the Plains will reach into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- High fire danger due to gust winds and low humidity values will impact areas west of I-25 this afternoon and evening.

- Widespread fire weather conditions are possible again on Saturday, and moisture looks to return to the Plains for early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Currently...mostly clear skies have spread across southern Colorado early this morning. Temperatures are quite warm, with 60s to lower 70s. These temperatures will fall off into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak.

Today and tonight...the upper pattern will continue to favor northwest flow aloft across southern Colorado. Increasing flow aloft will help mixing this afternoon, helping to boost temperatures to near record levels (KALS record 92/forecast of 92, KCOS record 97/forecast 98, KPUB record 103/forecast 103). Head Advisories remain in place for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties from 11 AM through 7 PM due to the high temperatures. Precautions should be taken to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activities due to the heat. In addition to the heat, high fire danger will exist this afternoon and evening, mainly for areas west of I-25. Mountain areas, especially the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains, and northern portions of the San Luis Valley will see the strongest winds, with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible. Further east over the Eastern Mountains, Teller County, and much of the southern I-25 corridor will see very low humidity values, near 5 percent, with winds gusting near 30 to 35 mph. Caution is advised with any outdoor burning activities.

A cold front will arrive this evening across the Palmer Divide, and push south across the Plains overnight. This will usher in much cooler air with mostly 50s for overnight lows. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the cold front, with gusty winds, increasing moisture and stratus by Thursday morning. No precipitation is forecast with the frontal passage Thursday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

No big changes to the extended period, with differences in precipitation amounts for late in the weekend into early next week. Saturday looks hot, with continued periods of fire weather conditions.

Thursday through Friday...upper level ridging will shift east across southern Colorado on Thursday, and east into western Kansas by Friday. Much cooler temperatures are forecast Thursday, with easterly low level flow keeping highs in the 70s to lower 80s across the Plains. There could be a few light showers or thunderstorms by the afternoon over the San Juan Mountains and southern Sangre de Cristo Range. Further north, high fire danger will redevelop over the La Garita Range into the Central Mountains due to gusty winds and low humidity values. A Fire Weather Watch as been issued for the Continental Divide.

By Friday, the upper ridge axis shifts east into Kansas and trough develops to the west turning flow aloft across Colorado southwesterly. Upper energy in the southwest flow will lead to shower and thunderstorm development across the higher terrain by the afternoon. This activity will spread east across the Plains during the evening, dissipating overnight. Temperatures will begin to warm with highs back through the upper 80s to mid 90s across the Plains.

Saturday through Wednesday...gusty southwest flow will increase across the region on Saturday. Mixing will help boost temperatures back into the mid 90s ot lower 100s across the lower elevations by the afternoon. Strong winds and humidity values under 10 percent will lead to widespread high fire danger. How far the drier air pushes east will impact precipitation chances on the Plains, with a dryline likely lurking near the Kansas border. Depending on how far east the dryline mixes, a few stronger storms may be possible Saturday evening. If the dryline mixes too far east, the thunderstorm activity will be in Kansas, with high fire danger all the way out to the Kansas border.

A cold front will arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning turning low level flow southeasterly. Cooler temperatures in the 80s and 90s are expected for Sunday and Monday. Moisture advects into the Plains, and the potential exists for periods of precipitation across the Plains. The GFS and Canadian are pretty adamant with QPF totals Sunday into Tuesday on the Plains, with the ECMWF has less precipitation in the forecast. Left the NBM POPs and QPF during this period, with nearly daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS really pegs the Plains Monday night into Tuesday. PWAT values over an inch do support wet conditions before drier conditions return by the middle of next week. Spotty high fire danger will continue Sunday into Tuesday for the Central Mountains due to lower humidity values and gusty winds.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Skies will remain VFR through the 24 hour TAF period at KALS, KCOS and KPUB. Gusty northwest winds will spread into all three terminals today, with a more delayed response at KALS and KPUB. Gusts up to 25 kts will be possible. A cold front will push into KCOS and KPUB between 04z and 06z with north winds gusting up to 30 to 40 kts into the early morning hours. There is a low chance for VFR stratus to develop towards the tail end of the TAF valid period for both terminals, though confidence is too low to add just yet. KALS will see winds decrease in the mid to late evening with an enhanced easterly wind spreading into the terminal around dawn Thursday as cooler air pours through La Veta Pass behind the deepening cool airmass east of the mountains. -KT

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

High fire danger will continue this afternoon and evening for areas mainly west of I-25. For areas of the Central Mountains, down into the La Garita Range and northern San Luis Valley, winds will be strongest here, with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible, and humidity values under 15 percent. For areas east into Teller County, Eastern Mountains and Plains into the I-25 corridor, hot temperatures and dry air will allow for humidity values near 5 percent, with wind gusts near 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 9 PM today.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Continental Divide on Thursday. This will impact mainly areas from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains.

More widespread fire weather conditions are forecast for Friday across much of southern Colorado. Southwesterly winds will increase by the afternoon, and humidity values will fall to under 10 percent. The main question will be how far east the drier air mixes and the extent east of the high fire danger.

Spotty, critical fire weather conditions will continue Sunday into Tuesday for the Central Mountains.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>225-228>230. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ220-223. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.