textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing winter system will bring heavy, wet snow to the area later today through Weds Night. Wetting rain also expected for the lower elevations at times.

- Slushy roads, hazardous travel, and damage to trees and power lines will all be possible.

- Subfreezing temperatures expected across the area Weds Night into early Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Model agreement continues to improve on the evolution of our active weather pattern this week. Two separate systems will impact SE Colorado; a broad upper trough just to our north and east, and a second low pressure system passing to our south. A northerly surge is already through the plains, due to the northern trough passing by. As a result, surface winds over the plains will turn ESE, giving us persistent upsloping to help enhance precipitation and cloud cover. Precip will mainly start increasing in chance and coverage after around midday, after a brief lull in the morning hours. This will coincide with an increase in surface winds, with showers spreading over the Palmer Divide, mountains/plains interface, and generally other areas north of Highway 50.

With this wintry system coming so late in the season, temperatures will play a big role in what kinds of precipitation we see at the surface, along with rain/snow accumulations and rates. To start, today's showers will initiate as rain across the lower elevations, while the peaks of the mountains see snow. Initial mountain snow accumulations look to be on the lighter side through the rest of the afternoon, though the top of Pikes Peak will likely see a few inches by sunset. Moving into tonight, temperatures will quickly drop over the top of the Palmer, with rain switching over to snow prior to midnight. By Weds morning, snow levels are expected to drop over the rest of I-25 and portions of the plains north of Highway 50.

The tricky part will be where the heaviest accumulations will be for snow, along with considering how much of it melts. With temperatures remaining above freezing over the plains and parts of the Palmer at the initial onset of the system, we're still expecting a lot of melting to occur with the initial transition from rain to snow. This will be most prevalent over roadways and other darker surfaces, while snow will accumulate better over grass, plants, etc. Even so, this could have its own impacts.

First, melting snow on roadways could easily lead to slushy, slick travel conditions. Despite the lack of initial accumulation, the combination of limited visibility in heavier precip and slushy roads will make travel hazardous. Next, the snow we're expecting should be on the heavier and wetter side of things. As such, expect some damage to leafy trees and other plants. Tree branches could come down from the added weight, and damage to power lines and the potential for power outages should be noted as well.

Moving into Wednesday, temperatures will come up a bit during the day as precip continues across the area. Latest forecast has high temperatures reaching into the 40s over the plains, though that may drop a few degrees depending on how heavy precip is at the surface. Regardless, expecting an afternoon switch from solely snow to a rain/snow mix, though snow will become the dominate precip mode quickly again once the sun starts to set.

Not much change to the forecasted snow totals with this latest update. Heaviest amounts will be over the southeast mountains, Teller County, and the Palmer Divide, with some areas expected to receive over a foot by Weds Night. That being said, with the melting we're expecting with this system, those amounts will not be on the ground at the same time. Even so, impact-wise, still expecting a heavy wet snow along with potential tree/power lines damage, as well as slushy roads. As such, have upgraded Teller and northern El Paso to Winter Storm Warnings. Given the lesser impacts expected elsewhere, left the Advisories as they were for now, but may need to look at upgrading the peaks of the southeast mountains later in the day, assuming QPF doesn't come down with incoming model runs.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Not much change to the long-term forecast at this time. The area will dry out Weds Night into Thursday as the upper trough pushes east of us. With cold air still in place and fewer clouds, Wednesday Night will be cold. Sub-freezing temps are expected across the CWA, with a Freeze Watch in place for the eastern plains.

Breezy northwest flow sets in aloft on Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Highs will climb into the 60s to low- 70s over most of our area, with drier conditions setting in. Temperatures will continue to warm as we head into next weekend, though enough moisture and lighter winds should keep us free of any widespread fire weather concerns. Another shortwave is expected to pass close to our region around Saturday, sending another cold front onto the plains and bringing temps back towards seasonal normals.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

KCOS and KPUB: MVFR conditions are expected early, with IFR to LIFR conditions developing throughout the day as ceilings drop. Thick low to mid level clouds are expected through the entirety of this TAF period, with clouds lowering and thickening in coverage by this afternoon as precipitation develops. Speaking of precipitation, showers will start to develop during the afternoon hours for both sites, with rain initially. Thunder will also be possible with these showers, but especially for KPUB. Precipitation will steadily increase in coverage heading into the evening hours, and as temperatures drop, rain is expected to transition to all snow for KCOS and at least a rain/snow mix for KPUB. Any precipitation is expected to drop visibility and ceilings quickly. Beyond all of that, relatively light winds early will become gusty this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 knots. Winds will steadily lessen again heading into the evening and overnight hours for both sites.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected for a majority of this TAF period, with MVFR conditions developing near the end as ceilings lower. Mid to high level clouds will be in place early, and will steadily lower throughout the day, with MVFR ceilings expected tonight for the TAF site. In addition, showers will develop within the San Luis Valley late in the period, some of which may impact the TAF site. Quick drops in visibility and ceilings can be expected during any shower passage. Otherwise, relatively light winds early will become gusty this afternoon, with gusts to 30 knots. Winds will steadily lessen again heading into the evening and overnight hours for both sites.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ058-060-063-076. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ072>075-078>080-087. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ081-082. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ084.