textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers mainly along the Continental Divide today and Tuesday.

- Very heavy rainfall for the Continental Divide focused on the San Juan Range Wed-Thurs. Flooding and rock/mud slides may be possible.

- Remaining dry on the Plains with warm temperatures through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning has widespread mid and high cloud cover spread across Southern Colorado. This has helped keep temperatures mild, with 50s to low 60s across the Plains. A few degrees of cooling are anticipated before sunrise with most areas on the Plains falling into the 40s, and near 30 across the San Luis Valley.

Today and tonight...upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Central Plains, with persistent southwest flow spread across Colorado. An embedded upper wave is forecast to track over the western portion of the state, helping to generate a few showers along the Continental Divide this afternoon and evening. While instability is rather weak (CAPE less than 200 j/kg), one or two rumbles of thunder may be possible. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly cooler across the Plains with mostly 60s to near 70.

Overnight, the embedded upper wave will eject to the northeast, with showers coming to an end during the evening hours. Quiet conditions will then prevail into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will fall off into the 40s across the Plains, and 30s for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Models and ensembles are in much better agreement through Friday, with very wet conditions forecast along the Continental Divide for mid to late week. The latest trends for all guidance have come up with QPF amounts, and now have the rainfall persist well into Friday.

Tuesday...an embedded upper wave in the persistent southwest flow will lift north across Colorado Tuesday afternoon and evening. Moisture looks to be slightly increased, and instability a bit higher for the Mountains and will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main threat will be lightning. This activity will spread northeast during the evening hours and come to an end overnight. High temperatures on Tuesday will warm back into the lower to mid 70s across the Plains, and overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 40s.

Wednesday through Friday...all model guidance and ensembles have come into agreement with the evolution and track of an upper storm system across Colorado. Deep tropical moisture, with PWAT values in excess of 0.8-1.2 inches are forecast to spread across southern Colorado Wednesday afternoon and continue into Friday. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon along the Continental Divide, and remain persistently lift northward through this period. All signs are pointing toward heavy rainfall. Most model guidance continues to come in with higher QPF amounts, with areas around Wolf Creek Pass in the 2-4+ inch range over this 3 day period. DESI probabilistic guidance has a greater than 90 percent probability of 2 or more inches over the San Juans, and around 40 percent for 4 inches. The main concerns from this much rain will be flooding, and ground may be unstable enough due to heavy rains over the past month to produce rock and mud slides. There is not a lot of cold air with this system, and snow levels will remain high, above 12-13 kft through a majority of the storm. For the very high peaks of the San Juan Range and La Garita Mountains, snow could be very heavy. It isn't until Thursday night into Friday morning that snow levels may come down to near 10 kft, with only a couple inches of slushy snow possible by the time precipitation comes to an end. We will continue to monitor trends and the potential flooding possibilities.

On the Plains, not much in the way of precipitation will happen. Some guidance, including the GFS does force showers and isolated thunderstorms off the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor on Thursday. Looking at the QPF progs for the Plains, there has been very little consistency from run to run, and confidence that areas along the I-25 corridor will see rain is low. East of I-25, looks to remain dry. The main concern on the Plains looks to be wind as the main upper trough lift northeast across the Rockies. Most model guidance spreads 30-40 kt 700 mb flow across the Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on the Plains will remain warm, with 70s to near 80 for mid to late week.

Saturday through Monday...models diverge significantly by next weekend with various trough and ridge positioning. The NBM guidance generally has low pops across the region and given the uncertainty, did not thinking changes were necessary. Temperatures will cool over the weekend with the passage of the upper trough on Friday and a cold front knocking highs back into the 60s on the Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 516 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Mid-level cloud cover will persist across the region, with showers this afternoon over the higher terrain. Currently, no showers are expected near the TAF sites. Winds should remain under 12 knots, with diurnal flow patterns.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.