textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions continues through Friday, especially over and near the higher terrain.

- Strong to Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the far southeast plains through the early evening.

- Hot temperatures continue Friday, with a cooling trend and increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms for the Holiday Weekend into the middle of next week.

- Diminishing winds lessens Critical Fire Weather conditions into the Holiday Weekend, but increasing moisture and chances of precipitation brings the threat of flash flooding for area fires.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region, as an embedded short wave is translating through the broad upper trough in place across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Water vapor imagery and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor data continues to indicate dry air in place across south central Colorado, with current observations indicating dew pts in the single digits and teens across higher terrain. Further east, dew pts are in the 30s and 40s across the I-25 Corridor with mid 40 to upper 50 degree dew pts across the southeast plains at this time. Strengthening lee trough across the plains is starting to develop breezy southwest winds across the I-25 Corridor and mixing out low level moisture with the 1 pm observation at the Spanish Peaks Airport (K4V1) indicating SW winds gusting to 30 mph, with the temperature at 91F, dew pt of 12F and rh of 5 percent. Satellite imagery is indicating some CU developing along the Raton Mesa and Rampart Range, with regional radars indicating a few showers north of the Palmer Dvd and a thunderstorm developing across Baca county.

For the rest of today and tonight, southwest flow will continue to mix out moisture across the plains, with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Bent, Baca, Prowers counties through the late afternoon and early evening. Main threats from these storms continue to be damaging outflow winds up to 70 mph, along with the potential for hail up to the size of quarters. Further west, dry air and continued breezy west to southwest winds will keep critical fire weather conditions in place through the late evening, with current Red Flag Warning remaining in place through midnight, though breezy winds could keep spotty critical fire weather conditions ongoing into early Friday morning across the southeast mtns and banana belt. The westerly flow and and breezy conditions will keep rh recovery poor for the ongoing wildfires.

Moderate west to southwest flow aloft remains progged across the region for tomorrow, as model data supports another weak short wave translating across the Rockies. With expected hot temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, with 70s and 80s expected across the higher terrain and continued dry air in place, Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected once again on Friday, especially over and near the higher terrain, were a very dry airmass will remain in place. Current Red Flag Warnings remain in place from the I-25 Corridor westward from 10 AM to midnight on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Latest model data continues to indicate weakening flow aloft as upper level ridging builds across the Desert Southwest and into the Rockies through the Holiday Weekend. This will lessen the threat of Critical Fire Conditions areawide, though can not rule out spotty conditions across the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. Further east, latest models support a frontal boundary pushing into eastern Colorado through the day Saturday, with low level moisture increasing behind this boundary, leading to increasing chances of showers and storms across southeast Colorado late Saturday afternoon and evening. There remains uncertainty in how much moisture and instability will be available across the area, however, with easterly low level flow, combined with modest westerly flow aloft, there could be a few strong to severe storms across eastern Colorado 4th of July evening, with the most likely area along and north of the Palmer Dvd.

For Sunday, and continuing into the middle of next week, model data keeps weak south to southwest flow in place with upper level ridging across the Rockies. This allows for a slow moistening of the atmosphere leading to increasing chances of daily showers and storms and more seasonal temperatures through the period. This will keep critical fire weather conditions at bay, however, the increasing available moisture and weak flow aloft will bring an increasing threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the new area burn scars, where wildfires have lowered the capacity for the landscape and soil to absorb water.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Ongoing gusty winds will lessen heading into the evening and overnight hours, with winds remaining less than 10 knots overnight. Winds increase again tomorrow afternoon, especially for KALS, as mixing develops. Otherwise, dry conditions, with periods of high level clouds tomorrow, is expected. Along with all of that, wildfire smoke and haze will be a concern through this TAF period, but especially for KPUB given closer proximity to an ongoing wildfire in the Wet Mountains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in place through Midnight for both today and Friday for the mountains, valleys and adjacent plains. Gusty winds may see a slower onset for some areas along the I-25 Corridor both days. But as weak systems cross the mountains, winds should increase into the evening hours necessitating longer duration Red Flag Warnings with greater impacts continuing into the evening periods. Poor overnight humidity recovery can be expected both nights, but especially tonight along the lower east slopes of the southeast mountains.

It will remain warm and dry over the higher terrain on Saturday but winds will be lighter, with only spotty areas of critical fire weather conditions expected. Further east, a weak front will bring increasing low level moisture to eastern Colorado, with chances of showers and strong to severe storms Saturday night. Available moisture will continue to increase across the region through the middle of next week, leading to increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms. While the weaker winds and increased moisture will keep critical fire weather conditions at bay, there will be an increasing threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the new area burn scars.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>230. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for COZ220>230.