textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture through the middle of the work week with increasing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Trending drier and warmer into next weekend with more isolated storms possible, mainly over the higher terrain, each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The focus for strong to severe thunderstorms has shifted north and east of the area. As such, have cancelled portions of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 for the remainder of this evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moderate southwest flow aloft continues across the region, with low level moisture back in place across the southeast plains with last nights passing front. SPC meso analysis as of 1 pm has 500-1500 j/kg in place across the I-25 Corridor, with 1500-2500 j/kg across the far southeast plains. Bulk shear was running at 25-35 kts from south to north across the region, with shear up to 40 kts across northern Colorado at this time. Current radar, as of 1 pm, has a severe storm producing 1" hail lifting out across northern El Paso County, along with a few echoes across Baca county at this time.

Latest higher res models continue to keep the best severe storm parameters across northern El Paso and the far southeast plains through the late afternoon, with Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 in place across Teller, El Paso, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties through 8 pm, which may be ended early, as latest models remain consistent that convection lifts out across eastern Colorado and western Kansas through the evening and overnight hours. This sends another slug of low moisture back across the southeast plains with stratus expected across the plains early tomorrow morning. This should keep low temperatures in the 50s across the plains, with lows mainly in the 30s and 40s expected across higher terrain.

Flow aloft becomes more west to southwest through the day tomorrow, with another embedded wave progged to translate across the eastern Great Basin into northwest Wyoming. This will help generate scattered showers and storms across the higher terrain. Further east, where better low level moisture will be in place, latest models keep to plains stable through the early afternoon, before storms across the mtns continue to push east through the late afternoon and early evening. The best coverage for storms looks to be across the southern I-25 Corridor and into the southeast plains through the evening. Strong to severe storms will remain possible, with the main threats being hail up to 1 inch in diameter and gusty outflow winds to near 60 mph, with locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible with the strongest storms. Temperatures are expected to be cooler tomorrow, especially across the plains with highs in the 70s to low 80s, with 50s, 60s and 70s expected across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Model data continues to support increasing available moisture across the area through Thursday, leading to increasing coverage of daily showers and storms through the end of the work week. Flow aloft weakens enough to support more locally heavy rain and the potential for localized flash flooding, however, there may be enough low level moisture to support a few pulse severe storms across the plains on Wednesday.

By the end of the work week into next weekend, flow aloft continues to weaken with upper level ridging building across the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Models do indicate warming temperatures, but differ on amount of available moisture in place, with likely enough moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, especially over and near the higher terrain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

At KCOS, storm threat should stay north of the terminal through the evening, so will drop the vcts mention with the 00z taf. Outflow boundary has just moved through the station, and expect gusty north winds this evening to turn easterly and diminish toward 06z. Winds then turn more e-se overnight, leading to a period of MVFR stratus 10z-16z. On Tue, clouds clear with VFR conditions much of the day, then a prob30 for -tsra after 22z as storms begin to move off the higher terrain.

At KPUB, VFR this evening, with winds shifting to northerly and becoming gusty by 02z as outflow boundary moves through. Winds then turn more e-se overnight, leading to a period of MVFR stratus 12z-15z. Clouds clear late morning Tue with VFR conditions much of the day, then a prob30 for -tsra after 22z as storms begin to move off the higher terrain. At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with sw winds diminishing this evening, then increasing again on Tue after 19z, with a few gusts 20-25 kts.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.