textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Another nice day today, with mild temperatures and a few showers along the Continental Divide.

- Confidence continues to increase for heavy rainfall along the Continental Divide, with the focus over the San Juan Range Wednesday into Friday.

- Snow levels will remain high, with minor accumulations possible above 12-13 kft (Wed-Fri).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows increasing clouds across western Colorado as flow aloft begins to increase out of the southwest. Otherwise, quiet weather will prevail through the early morning hours. Temperatures are currently in the 40s across the Plains, and 30s over the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will continue to cool into the 30s and lower 40s for the Plains, and 20s for the San Luis Valley by daybreak.

Today and tonight...upper level high pressure will continue to shift east into the Central Plains over the next 24 hours, while weak energy embedded in increasing southwest flow will lead to a few showers along the Continental Divide by late afternoon. Overall, temperatures will warm nicely today, with 70s on the Plains, and 60s across the San Luis Valley. Very spotty elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across Baca County this afternoon due to low humidity values and occasional breezy conditions.

Overnight, a few light showers will remain possible along the Continental Divide with the primary focus across the San Juan Range. Lows tonight will remain mild with 40s on the Plains, and 30s across the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Not much change to the extended forecast, with good agreement through the end of the week, and differences arising by next weekend with the upper pattern. Very wet conditions are still favored along the Continental Divide, focused on the San Juan Range.

Monday through Tuesday...persistent southwest flow will prevail across Colorado through the early part of the work week. Weak embedded energy will keep persistent shower activity going along the Continental Divide through much of this period. At this time, all shower activity looks to remain west, where the main energy lifts across western Colorado, to the northeast. Very weak instability could lead to a couple rumbles of thunder Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Snow levels will be high, above 13 kft, and a dusting of snow may be possible at best. Across the Plains, a weak cold front will arrive by Monday morning, which will help keep temperatures cool, mainly in the 60s. Temperatures will once again warm up on Tuesday, with mostly 70s for the lower elevations.

Wednesday through Friday...models still bringing a strong storm system across the region for mid to late week. There remains differences in storm track, with the ECMWF furthest south, and the GFS/Canadian north. All guidance and ensembles have a deep moisture tap off the eastern Pacific, and PWAT values will climb to near an inch across the region. Showers will increase in coverage along the Continental Divide on Wednesday, peaking in intensity Wednesday night into Thursday, and likely linger across the region into Friday. NBM guidance, ensembles and deterministic guidance all have 1 to 3 inches of QPF across the San Juan Range during this period. NBM is centered around 3 inches, and WPC guidance is in excess of 4 for the days 5-7 period. DESI probs of 2 inches or more are greater than 50% for the San Juan Range. So, overall confidence is higher for a heavy rainfall event. As for snow, snow levels will start out high on Wednesday, above 12-13 kft. They will likely lower towards the end of the event, Thursday night into Friday morning, to near 10 kft. Current snow progs are in the 2-4 inch range for the peaks, mainly across the San Juan Range. For the Plains, southwesterly flow isn't that conducive for shower activity, and most of the Plains east of I-25 look to remain dry. Could a few showers spread east off the Sangre de Cristo Range west of I-25, sure, but they will likely not amount to much. Model guidance has precipitation coming to an end by Friday morning as the upper system shifts northeast away from the area.

Temperatures during this period will remain warm, with 70s to lower 80s by Friday. These temperatures will be a few degrees shy of records at Colorado Springs and Pueblo.

Saturday and Sunday...uncertainty increases for next weekend with the evolution of the upper pattern. NBM pop grids look good, with low end precipitation chances across the area on Saturday, drying out for the weekend. Most guidance does have a cold front, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70 for the Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Mid-level cloudiness will increase through the period, with winds remaining under 12 knots with diurnal flow patterns. Some showers will be present over the terrain near the San Luis Valley this afternoon, though currently no impacts are expected at KALS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.