textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly less windy on Friday, with isolated thunderstorms over the San Juans/La Garitas, the Palmer Divide and along the NM border

- Winds increase over the weekend, with increasing fire danger at many locations. Isolated thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday over the central mountains and across the Pikes Peak Region

- Much cooler early next week, with increased precipitation chances for much of the region

UPDATE

Issued at 701 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Update to allow today's Red Flag Warning to expire as scheduled. Relative humidity values are expected to continue to increase as temperatures decrease after sunset. Winds are also beginning to weaken below warning thresholds. For these reasons, today's Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire as scheduled.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

High based convection which developed over Baca County early this afternoon has already shifted into KS, as gusty w-sw winds and drier air spread across the plains. Will hold onto some low ops over the far sern plains until early evening to account for any potential redevelopment, though overall storm/severe threat seems to have shifted east into KS/OK. Farther west, Red Flag Warning over the mountains/upper Arkansas Valley verifying at most locations, with winds gusting to 30 mph and RH of 10-15 percent. This evening and overnight, winds over the mountains will diminish, while on the plains, cold frontal passage will bring a period of gusty n-nw winds from around midnight until sunrise mainly along and east of I-25.

On Friday, mid-level flow weakens across the area, and while we'll still have some afternoon gusts to around 20 mph, doesn't appear we'll have enough wind for critical fire weather conditions, so no fire highlights are in place at this point. Very subtle increase in mid-level moisture spreads across the San Juans/La Garitas Friday afternoon, and expect just enough instability for some weak convection over the higher terrain, with a couple of lightning strikes possible. Over the eastern mountains and plains, weak upslope flow develops by afternoon, with low level moisture gradually working westward through the day. At this point, instability looks rather limited (CAPE under 500 J/KG), suggesting only isolated weak convection, mainly over/near the Palmer Divide and along the NM border. Deeper moisture does make it west of the KS border Fri evening, and at least a few CAMs are popping some stronger storms over the eastern tier of counties after sunset, but haven't committed to this solution yet in the grids, keeping only some very low pops in place for now. Max temps drift downward a few degf, especially on the plains, though readings will still be well above average.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Deep upper trough digs into the nrn Rockies over the weekend, with increasing swly flow aloft across Colorado. Pattern will bring generally warm/dry/windy conditions to most higher terrain south of Highway 50 both days, with a few showers possible to the north over Lake and Chaffee Counties. Have already hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for a few locations along the NM border and across the Sangres/Wets for Sat, and expect additional highlights again on Sunday as winds increase further. On the plains, pattern is complicated by position of surface low and associated trough/cold front, with moist/unstable air pooling north and east of the boundary both days. On Sat, surface low spins up near La Junta, with weak NW to SE oriented boundary lifting northeast during the day, though models disagree on how quick and how far north and east it lifts by Sat evening. Slower solutions (i.e. GFS) would leave much of the southeast plains with a threat of strong/severe storms (as depicted in the SWODY3), while other solutions (i.e. NAM) shift the threat well north into nern CO by evening. NBM and current forecast leans toward the drier/more nly solution, with pops Sat limited to areas along the Palmer Divide. Similar story for Sun, though a little more consensus among the models/ensembles that boundary may end up to the north, with better forcing for storms and precip staying north of the the CWA.

Upper trough swings by to the north Sunday night into Monday, with cold front finally pushing south through the region. Should see better chances for showers/thunderstorms behind the front, with best chances for measurable precip over the northern portions of the area, as best forcing continues to look too far north for widespread, significant precip across southern Colorado. Secondary energy will likely keep at least a chance of showers/storms going Tue/Wed, though model and WPC qpf remain rather light, generally a tenth of an inch or less. Max temps will cool significantly, especially on Tue, with readings below seasonal averages for a change.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 534 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected across KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

Winds at KCOS and KPUB will turn northerly overnight as a weak front moves in, then from the SE by about midday Friday. KALS winds will weaken overnight and will mostly keep a WSW component. Mid-level clouds will persist across the area.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ225-229-230-233-237.