textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow for the Continental Divide through Tonight with Winter Weather Advisories posted through midnight for the Sawatch, Mosquitos and eastern San Juan Mountains.

- Cooler with rain showers across the southeast plains later today and tonight. A few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon especially southern portions of the southeast plains.

- Hard Freeze for the San Luis Valley tonight into Thursday morning.

- Freezing temperatures possible for portions of the southeast plains Thursday night into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1240 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Upper low over northern Arizona will continue to trek eastward lifting into the 4 Corners area by mid day and into northeast CO by early Thursday morning. Rounds of rain and higher elevation snow will continue across the Continental Divide today with snow levels dropping to around 8000 feet by this afternoon as colder air aloft spreads in. Best forcing and greatest QG-omega comes across this morning for the western mountains, which also coincides with a period of enhanced southwesterly orographic flow for the Eastern San Juans. Snow levels remain around 10,500 so most of the accumulations will remain around/above pass levels with initial road warmth keeping travel conditions wet. But with quickly drop snow levels in the afternoon combined with instability, this will be the period where more impactful snow could fall with the focus shifting into the central mountains tonight as mid level flow shifts around to a northwesterly component which will favor the Sawatch and Mosquitoes for heavier snowfall amounts into the night time hours. All in all, looking at around 4-10 inches of accumulation for the higher mountain zones out west, with the heaviest across the Sawatch and Mosquitoes where the timing of the cold air, orographic enhancement and upper lift with the system are better juxtaposed.

For the southeast mountains and plains, stratus will continue to fill in across the plains overnight with overrunning showers developing towards morning as the upper low approaches. Best chance for precipitation will arrive in the afternoon as a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms develops along the nose of the upper jet/dry slot which lifts across the southeast plains during the afternoon. Given the storm track, with the center of the low to the north, this will result in a more brief round of showers/tstorms but high res models have come into better agreement on a fairly good chance of brief wetting rain spreading eastward through the evening hours for most of the plains. Elevated instability could result in a strong storm or two, particularly south of highway 50, though these storms will be elevated if stratus stays locked in. However cold air aloft will allow for some small hail along with heavy rainfall and lightning.

Precipitation decreases from southwest to northeast overnight as the upper low center pulls off to the north. Clearing across the San Luis Valley will allow for a cold night with a hard freeze likely. Freeze Warnings have already been posted. -KT

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Central mountains and Pikes Peak region could see another round of showers with a brief mix to snow down to 7500 feet Thursday morning as wrap around moisture and strong northerly winds around the back side of the system spread across southeast CO. Winds could gust up to 50 mph across the plains. Any additional rain/snow accumulation Thursday morning will be spotty and light and confined to the southeast mountains according to latest model runs. As winds diminish during the evening and skies clear out, this will set the stage for another frost/freeze event across northern portions of the southeast plains. Probabilities look greatest across El Paso and Kiowa counties (40-80%), though there could be some more patchy frost or brief light freezing temperatures as far south as the highway 50 corridor and along the southern I-25 corridor in Huerfano and western Las Animas County. Will hoist a Freeze Watch for El Paso and Kiowa counties where probabilities of freezing temperatures are 50% or greater. Lows in the mid to upper 20s could bring an end to the growing season across northern El Paso County. As details become more clear, suspect we may need some Frost Advisories to the south.

Temperatures slowly recover for Friday and odds for a more widespread freeze looks higher for Friday night into Saturday morning for all of the southeast plains as clear skies and dry surface dew points allow for efficient radiational cooling. Lee troughing may keep temperatures slightly warmer along the lower eastern slopes and I-25 corridor though, so will need to see how these details play out, but suspect another round of frost/freeze highlights will be necessary east of I-25.

Otherwise warmer temperatures return though these will be closer to normal rather than the 10-15 degree normal readings we've had of late. A weak system in southwest flow will bring a low end chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the mountains on Sunday. Then we will be watching the approach of our next upper trough/closed along the west coast which could affect CO sometime mid to latter part of next week. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

KALS: Winds weaken a bit overnight, with clouds lowering into MVFR. Gusty southwest winds to around 30 knots return by late morning, with more showers possible Wednesday afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB: Upsloping east to southeast winds will bring low stratus and some patchy fog to the terminals. IFR to patchy LIFR conditions will last the rest of the forecast period. There will be a low chance for some rain showers in the early morning, with rain become more likely later in the day as showers move off the mountains.

Conditions will slowly start to improve across the terminals Wednesday Night into Thursday, though some low clouds may still stick around until around 06z for both KCOS and KPUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight for COZ058-060. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ068. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ069>071. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ084-085-095-096.