textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Modest easterly flow aloft supports warm and dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado through the upcoming work week.

- A slow increase in available moisture will bring a slow increase in daily thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain, mainly along and west of the ContDvd for the middle to end of the work week.

- Monsoonal moisture possibly working into all of the region for the weekend into early next week?

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest east to northeast flow aloft across the region, with upper level ridging building into the Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating a drying and subsident airmass building across eastern and into south central Colorado at this time. A mid level thermal trough, associated with the building upper high across Northwest Colorado, has developed breezy east to southeast low level winds and spotty critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and southeast Colorado early this afternoon. GOES satellite imagery and regional radars are indicating CU and a few showers moving southwest across the higher terrain, with some fair weather CU indicated across the southeast plains, as of 1230 pm.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, latest models and CAMs are picking up on the subsident airmass across eastern and into south central Colorado, with only a few expected high based -shra and -tsra expected across the higher terrain, mainly along and west of the ContDvd, through the rest of the afternoon, with convection diminishing and ending with the loss of solar heating through the early evening. The breezy east to southeast low level winds will continue through the early evening, which will become more southerly and remain breezy, at times, through the overnight hours, as the mid level thermal trough and upper ridge continues to build north and east across the Northern Rockies. This, along with another westward surge of low level moisture across the plains, will keep overnight temperatures on the mild side, with lows mainly in the 60s across the plains, and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. With the southerly low level winds and increase in low level moisture, will need to watch for the development of stratus tomorrow morning, mainly along and south of the Palmer Divide, however, the potential remains too low to add into the forecast at time.

Model data indicates the Northern Rockies upper level ridge to continue to build into the Northern High Plains through the day, with flow aloft becoming more easterly across the region. Model data continues to support a slight increase in available moisture through the day, especially across southwestern Colorado. This increase in moisture, will work with strong summer solar heating, to develop isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, with the best coverage across southwest mountains. With the more eastern flow aloft, could see a few storms moving towards the west across the high mountain valleys. Storms will continue to be high based, with gusty outflow winds and possible lightning being the main weather risks. Further east, a warm and subsident airmass looks to keep convection at bay. Temperatures look to be slightly above seasonal levels in the 90s across the plains, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain and in the mid 80s to low 90s once again across the high mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Longer term and ensemble model data continue to support an elongated upper ridge across the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains through the middle of the work week, keeping generally warm and dry easterly flow across the region, especially across eastern Colorado. This will keep daily chances of isolated high based showers and storms over the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd through the middle of the week, with temperatures remaining at to slightly above mid summer norms. The continued breezy easterly flow will also keep spotty critical fire conditions in place at times, especially across the interior valley locales.

Latest model data also remains consistent with the elongated upper ridge slowly building back across Rockies through the end of the work week and into next weekend. This will allow for better coverage of daily showers and storms, and wetting rains across western Colorado, which may eventually push into south central and possibly eastern Colorado by early next week, as monsoonal moisture across the Desert Southwest, slowly pushes east across the Great Basin and into western Colorado. Time will tell.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Gusty east to southeast winds 15-25kts to persist at the terminals through the evening hours, as mid level thermal trough, associated with upper level ridging building across northwestern Colorado, continues into the Northern Rockies overnight. Most, if not all, convection will be tied to the higher terrain and should not affect the terminals today.

The passing thermal trough to the north will also keep south to southeast winds at COS and PUB through the overnight hours, with the potential for stratus development, mainly at COS overnight. This potential for stratus is too low to include in the tafs at this time. Most

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.