textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High-impact system will bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns to SE Colorado through Thursday. System will also come with strong north winds and some high mountain snow.

- Some aspects of the forecast are prone to changes, including heaviest rain amounts and locations.

- Warmer and drier conditions return to the region Friday and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper low continues to spin towards the Four Corners, strengthening and bringing up moisture from the remnants of hurricane Polo. Showers will continue spreading from south to north across the region overnight and into Wednesday, with widespread light to moderate rainfall.

Where the challenge with this forecast comes in will be the exact placement of both the upper and surface lows, along with the highest axis of QPF. Even a minor north of south shift of the upper low, or a few hours of difference in the intensification of the surface low, could cause dramatic changes in the overall rainfall amounts we receive. The general trends have sent the upper low through New Mexico, lifting northeast through early Thursday with the surface low just ahead of it, tracking through the OK Panhandle.

Light to moderate rainfall will be widespread across most areas, though the spacial coverage of rain showers will decrease somewhat the further north you go. Where the tricky part of the QPF comes in is the higher-end amounts. Our heaviest QPF over the next 48 hours will fall in bands and more isolated pockets of intense rainfall. These are what will shift the most with the position of the system, and they are what the models have been struggling the most with. We'll rely on a combination of deformation banding, upsloping winds, some orographic assistance, and the intensification of the low.

Our highest QPF remains along and east of our southeast mountains, with some high bullseyes over portions of the eastern plains south of highway 50. These areas have remained consistent across recent model trends, with even the NBM and ensemble means highlighting these areas as potentially receiving the highest impacts. That being said, locally higher QPF will also be possible over the San Juans, Pikes Peak, the southwest San Luis Valley, and other portions of our higher terrain, depending on orographics.

Looking at the specific numbers amongst the models, forecast confidence increases further south and east. The south and east plains, mainly along and south of highway 50, look to receive anywhere from 1-3 inches by Thursday evening. Areas north of 50 will typically get 1-2 inches in total, with some areas in and around El Paso County getting between a half-inch and an inch, thanks to some localized downsloping. That being said, some models have far more precip in places, while others have noticeably less. Will have to keep a close eye on how the system evolves, given the amount of dynamic factors in place.

Several inches of snowfall are also expected over our highest peaks, mainly above 12 thousand feet. While the snowfall will be confined to these higher elevations, it may accumulate quickly at times. Travel over the higher terrain may be hazardous for the next few days.

The Wet Mountains and the Aspen Acres burn scar will continue to be at heightened chances for flash flooding, mudslides, and debris flow, with some flooding and related impacts having already occurred. Some gusty winds are also expected with the intensifying system, with gusts 30-40 mph possible through early Thursday, with some more localized gusts up to 45 mph possible. This could result in some tree damage as well as power line concerns, particularly in areas with unstable or flooded ground.

Outside of the burn scars, steeper areas in the terrain, areas with already-saturated soils, and other low-lying areas will also be at heightened risk for flash flooding. Flash flooding can occur quickly, so be sure to remain aware, and have multiple ways of receiving warnings and other weather information.

For Thursday, the low continues east, as will the axis of heaviest rainfall and strongest winds. Focus will shift onto the eastern plains, with the system finally pushing east of us by the evening. That being said, any ongoing flooding may persist past the end of the actual rainfall. So again, make sure to remain situationally aware, especially if you are near a higher risk area.

Additionally, there is a very low-end but still realistic chance for a few embedded severe storms on Thursday. These would occur on the back side of the departing low over the far southeast plains, sometime Thursday afternoon into evening. While this portion of the forecast remains low in terms of confidence, we cannot completely rule out some severe impacts given how moist and dynamically driven this system is.

Finally, temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, with highs in the 50s to low-60s along and west of I-25, warming slightly further east. Thursday will be slightly warmer, with low-mid 60s across most of our area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Looking at Friday and into this weekend, warmer and drier conditions are expected to return to the region. Upper ridging will build back in over the western CONUS, with very little expected in terms of precipitation. Temperatures will warm a bit as well, with highs climbing into the 70s to possibly low-80s by next week. There will still be chances for isolated convection over the mountains each day, but overall not much is expected. With the drier air moving in, may need to monitor for freezing overnight temps in the high valleys, but as of now latest NBM keeps things in the mid to upper- 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 545 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain showers will continue at KPUB, KCOS and KALS today and this evening, with a mix of low VFR/occasional MVFR cigs/vis through the period. KCOS and KPUB will see increasing north winds from late this afternoon into the overnight hours, with gusts 25-35 kts possible. Precip begins to taper off overnight, and expect most -shra activity to end after 06z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067>071. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>089-093>099.