textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonal today, with spotty elevated fire danger - Breezy and warm Thursday with the return of widespread critical fire weather conditions - Next storm system brings rain and snow showers, along with gusty winds for Friday into Friday night, followed by widespread sub-freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Upper trough will lift out of Colorado this morning, with slowly building ridge across the state by late day. Main concern for today will be potential for some spotty elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in gap flow favored regions and across the upper Arkansas Valley. At this point, flow aloft doesn't appear strong enough to drive widespread gusts above 25 mph as 7h winds are under 20 kts, so will run with no highlights and just a mention of brief elevated conditions in the fire weather forecast. Max temps today will run at least in the vicinity of seasonal values, though most locations will end up a few degf on the warmer side of averages by late afternoon.

On Thursday, upper ridge migrates eastward into the High Plains, with increasing swly mid/upper flow across CO as next upper trough digs into the nrn Great Basin. While mid-level flow isn't terribly impressive (25-35 kts at 7h), surface gradient looks favorable for gusty winds, while humidity drops off to below 10 percent in spots by afternoon as deep mixing develops. Should have enough wind to justify the current fire weather highlight, though have started to see some weaker gusts on the plains in some of the 00z guidance, so have kept it a watch for now. Max temps will climb back into the 70s/80s on the plains with deep mixing, with 60s valleys and 50s/60s mountains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Upper trough swings through the central Rockies Friday/Friday night, with tend toward a faster system continuing in most 00z deterministic models. As a result, cold frontal passage on the plains has sped up, with a few solutions bringing the front through the plains Fri morning, while majority of models/ensembles point toward a slightly later passage in the afternoon. Deep wly flow ahead of the front could produce some critical fire weather conditions on the plains early Fri, especially south of the Arkansas River, though confidence is frontal timing is low enough to preclude any highlights at this point. Over the mountains, snow showers start early Fri morning along the Continental Divide, spreading eastward across the remaining mountains and high terrain through the day. If the front is quick enough, could see showers into the Pikes Peak region/Pueblo County Friday afternoon, with a thunderstorm possible as lapse rates steepen. Rain changes to snow quickly even along I-25 late Fri/Fri evening, with some moderate snow accums (2-4 inches in Teller County) forecast, and won't be surprised to see at least some light accums along the Palmer Divide/nrn COS as well. Forcing for precip drops off quickly the farther south you go across the region, and many areas south of the Arkansas River will see little or no rain/snow.

Upward motion diminishes quickly Fri night as trough moves rapidly away, and expect most if not all precip to end by midnight across the area. Winds die off and skies clear overnight, leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures Sat morning, with teens mountains and valleys, 20s on the plains. Cool and dry on Saturday, and will ignore slight chance NBM pops Sat afternoon, as air mass looks too dry to support convection. After another sub-freezing start Sun morning, warming trend begins from Sun afternoon into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and temperatures back to well above seasonal levels.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will will generally be light and diurnally driven. We could see some modest westerly gusty flow at KPUB and KALS tomorrow afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237.