textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue today and Wednesday across the region, with flash flooding concerns for the Aspen Acres burn scar persisting. A few severe storms are possible on the plains both today and Wednesday, with wind gusts over 60 mph the main storm threat.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday and Friday, though storm coverage will begin to slowly decrease as slightly drier air moves into the area.

- Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances continues Sat, though the threat of storms never completely goes away, with a potential uptick in storms from Sunday into early next week as moisture returns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Still a few showers/isolated thunderstorms lingering over the far eastern tier of counties early this morning, though expect activity to push east into KS and weaken over the next couple hours, with generally dry conditions and clearing skies by sunrise. Much like the past few days. after a quiet morning, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain shortly after noon, then spread eastward across the valleys and lower elevations from mid-afternoon into the evening. There are a few subtle changes from yesterday however; 1) Instability along and east of I-25 looks slightly higher than Mon, with some pockets of 1000 J/KG CAPE across the plains and along I-25 today, which is on average a couple hundred J/KG better than yesterday, 2) A cold front will drop south through the plains late afternoon/early in the evening, providing a focus for a few strong/severe storms east of I-25 (and especially near the KS border and 3) Slightly stronger upward vertical motion looks possible, as weak wave crests the upper ridge and dives into the High Plains by late day. Will keep Flash Flood Watch in place for the Aspen Acres scar for today, though just like Mon, heavy rain is not a certainty, given the scattered nature of expected convection.

Convection and post frontal upslope winds Tuesday night will likely send a surge of moisture westward toward the mountains, with a moist air mass banked up against the higher terrain Wed. As a result, we may see increased coverage of storms and an enhanced threat of heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon and evening, though risk of persistent clouds which would limit instability does add some uncertainty to the forecast. Overall, nudged up NBM pops over the plains on Wed, with high chance to likely pops over much of the eastern mountains and plains from late afternoon into the evening. Will hold off on a flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar at this point to get a better read on lower cloud/limited instability potential, though best guess is we'll need one eventually. Max temps Wed will fall back to near or slightly below seasonal averages for a change with moisture/clouds and weak cold advection knocking readings a few degf back, especially on the plains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Upper ridge amplifies slightly Thu/Fri as center of upper high drifts westward toward AZ, then flow flattens over the weekend into early next week as upper trough digs into the Pacific NW and upper jet sags south through the Rockies. Still plenty of moisture around on Thu with CAPE approaching 1000 J/KG in spots, and with NW flow aloft carrying storms away from the mountains into the I-25 corridor, expect another rather active thunderstorm day, though eastward extent of storms may be limited by slightly weaker instability over the far east. Can't rule out heavy rain once again, especially over the ern mountains and along I-25. Fri/Sat look drier as lee surface trough deepens on the plains and low level flow takes on a more wly downslope look both days. Still can't rule out a storm anywhere in the CWA, though activity looks more isolated and weaker than earlier in the week. Temps Thu will again run near/slightly cooler than average, then some slight warming expected Fri/Sat with heights beginning to rise and downslope mixing developing. Upper jet then sags far enough south to enhance thunderstorm chance from Sun into early next week, as mid level moisture flows back into the area and low levels potentially moisten as well behind a late weekend/early week cold front.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and diurnally driven outside of -TSRA activity.

The main concern will be the chance of passing -tsra activity late tomorrow afternoon and early evening, with gusty winds being the main concern.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086.