textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions southern I-25 corridor, otherwise cooler with scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers through tonight.

- More widespread critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday ahead of the next system.

- Next round of rain and higher elevation snow showers expected Thursday night through Friday night though splitting system looks less favorable for widespread significant precipitation amounts.

- May have to wait for the ejection of the cut off low mid week for a better chance of precipitation but details are murky and confidence remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Upper low across northern UT, southwest WY will fill and drop southeastward today which will send a cold front through the southeast plains. Showers are ongoing across the central mountains and these are progged to spread eastward then southward behind a cold front which pushes through the southeast plains through the day. Temperatures remain tricky with cold air/fog across far eastern areas during the morning which mixes out and erodes eastward by mid day. Trended temperatures down towards the 10th percentile across far eastern areas where cooler airmass may hang in tighter than model blends suggest. Meanwhile, westerly downslope flow should allow temperatures to warm quickly along the southern I-25 corridor where a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will be likely from late morning to early afternoon before the cold front pushes into the region. Current Red Flag Warning area still looks good with no further expansions necessary. Southern portions of the San Luis Valley could see a few hours of critical fire weather conditions as well, but conditions do not look widespread enough for fire weather highlights.

Rain and snow showers will develop behind the front across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains as flow briefly shifts from the northeast releasing some instability aloft given the cold core within the upper trough aloft. System doesn't look wrapped enough for a more organized band of rain showers to take shape across the plains, and latest high res models now keep precipitation more localized to the southeast mountains and adjacent plains during the late afternoon and evening. Will need to watch this trend closely as current satellite loops show a more closed off circulation and this could fill in as it acts in concert with some afternoon instability. For now best chances for showers will be across the Pikes Peak region where an inch or two of snow looks plausible as snow levels drop to around 7500 feet. There will be a convective wild card to this evening so some locally heavier amounts are possible, but overall trends continue to show paltry liquid equivalent precipitation amounts with totals generally under a 0.10 for most areas that do get precipitation. Some pockets of up to 0.25 will be possible, but this looks localized. Precipitation will diminish after midnight as the system pulls eastward. Temperatures across the interior valleys out west will be on the cold side given clearing skies. -KT

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Shortwave ridging will bring a reprieve from fire weather conditions on Wednesday. Temperatures rebound a few degrees for most areas as dry conditions return but winds look generally light.

The next system enters the west coast and drops towards the Great Basin region before splitting/shearing apart as northern stream energy ejects across central and northern CO while southern stream energy cuts off and retrogrades to off the southern CA coast by Friday night. Thursday will be warm, dry and windy again across much of southern CO in advance of this system, elevating fire weather concerns once again. Will likely need another round of Fire Weather Watches for most of the lower elevations and portions of the southeast mountain zones, but will let another set of model runs iron out these details before issuing Fire Weather Watches this far in advance. Meanwhile, snow showers spread into the Continental Divide Thursday night before expanding eastward into the southeast mountains and adjacent plains on Friday. Northern stream energy could potentially taps some colder air this time with lower snow levels, but details on how this system ejects leads to doubts on how much precipitation will impact southern CO. Models have trended drier as the system diverts the majority of the energy with both streams away from southern CO. For now, this is looking like a light event with NBM mean keeping QPF under 0.25 inches across southern CO with most of the southeast plains under 0.05.

Eventually the southern stream cut off gets ejected across the southern U.S towards the middle of next week, and while this may bring yet another chance for precipitation to southern CO, operational runs and model ensembles point to a storm track that may be too far south to bring much appreciable precipitation to our neck of the woods. Time will tell, but for now, main concerns continue to be critical fire weather as these systems bring bouts of wind and unseasonably warm temperatures. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1048 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with gusty winds near 25 kts this afternoon, then decreasing this evening.

KCOS and KPUB...showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening at both terminals. A cold front will increase winds this afternoon, with gusts near 30 kts behind it. Thunderstorms and showers will reduced CIGS and VIS at times this afternoon into the evening. A rain/snow mix will be possible this evening at KCOS, with rain expected at KPUB. Clearing conditions are anticipated after 07-09z into Wednesday morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.