textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture gradually increases across CO with another day of limited high based thunderstorms for the plains on Sunday, but better chances for wetting rains across the mountains and Continental Divide.

- Highest chance for heavy rainfall across the plains will be Monday with an elevated risk for Flash Flooding of burn scars.

- Drier weather returns for mid week before another influx of monsoon moisture returns to the mountains into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Relatively quiet at the start of the period, with isolated showery activity beginning to develop along and west of the Continental Divide. Elsewhere, dry weather is in place but with an expansive cloud shield in place over much of southern Colorado. As precip increases in coverage this afternoon, anticipate cloudier conditions for most of the area for the remainder of the day. While temperatures have risen well into the 80s and 90s so far, this cloud cover should keep temps from rising too much further this afternoon. With the upper ridge situated just to the southeast, the area will remain on the edge of slightly stronger and more energetic flow which should keep much of the precip development to the northwest. However, forcing should be enough to develop isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening, with the highest chances staying west of I-25. Lowering dewpoints today is indicative of the drier air that is still in place, which will also limit coverage and even intensity. This along with rather weak instability in place, don't anticipate any severe weather this afternoon, with the risks from any stronger expected to be gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, lightning, and spotty light to moderate rainfall. While widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, there is a low to medium chance for locally heavy rainfall across the central mountains.

Precip development should diminish by early to mid evening, however, some of the short term guidance is indicating returning showers to the southwest mountains and mountain valleys late this evening into early Sunday morning. Can't completely rule this out given persistent southwest flow, as well as satellite imagery showing additional upstream energy. So, did increase pops, but later forecasts may need to further increase. For Sunday, lingering cloud cover and cooler 700mb temps will support slightly cooler high temps. Similar setup on Sunday will bring another day isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. However, it does look like the flow does dip further south, which would help steer more energy across the area. This should help with some increased coverage and even intensity, and also expand coverage further east into the plains. While the risk of severe weather is low on Sunday, periods of locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk to keep an eye on.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms coverage continues to increase each day through Monday as the active monsoon plume remains over the CO and a well defined disturbance moves through southwest flow Monday afternoon and night.

Monday still looks like the wettest day of the period, though timing of the shortwave Monday night is not well juxtaposed with peak heating, which could reduce the risk of flash flooding. Will need to monitor the timing/position of a cold front as it drops through the southeast plains Monday/Monday night. If the front moves in during the day on Monday, east to southeast upslope flow may provide a better focus and sufficient confidence in flash flooding for the Aspen Acres burn scar to warrant a Flash Flood Watch. However, not all models agree with this timing and details will need to be refined as we get closer.

Tuesday looks drier behind the shortwave, though there is still sufficient moisture for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Then moisture gradually increases again as southwest flow picks up some Pacific moisture and spreads it across southern CO through late week. Best precipitation chances appear focused across the mountains (mainly Continental Divide) where better moisture fetch will be in place. East of the mountains, moisture looks high based again, though at least some isolated thunderstorms should return to the forecast for most areas by Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 519 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR TAFs are expected to persist with mostly diurnal wind regimes overnight. There may be some high based showers/virga coming out of southwestern CO later this evening along with outflow from storms in the northern CO plains, but confidence in these impacting the terminals were low so kept out mention. By Sunday afternoon, convection may be possible along the Palmer Divide so may need a PROB30 mention for KCOS - will continue to monitor the need for this in future updates.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.