textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warning is in effect today across the San Luis Valley, the central mountains, and the Sangre de Cristos (fire weather zones 220, 224, and 225), with high fire danger across the remainder of the area

- Critical fire weather conditions likely across much of the area Thursday and potentially Friday

- Cooler and more active weather is expected for the weekend into early next week, though latest model trends continue to point toward a weaker/farther north track of the weekend weather system, suggesting potentially less in the way of precipitation over southern Colorado than earlier expected

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1221 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Upper low/trough moving onshore along the Pacific NW coast early this morning will track eastward through the nrn Great Basin today, then into the nrn Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, deep sw flow develops across Colorado, with increasing winds aloft through the day. Little change in forecast thinking for today, with widespread hot/dry/windy conditions all areas from midday until well after sunset. Quick look at 00z models does show a 10 kt or so drop off in 7h/5h winds versus forecast 24 hrs ago, with a corresponding decrease in surface wind gust potential, especially across the San Luis Valley, where gusts in a good deal of CAMs never quite get to 50 kts. Left the High Wind Warning in place at this point as widespread gusts over 50 mph and areas of blowing dust are likely, and still at least a chance of a few near 60 mph gusts for an hr or 2 mid-afternoon as mixing reaches a maximum. Red Flag/PDS Red Flag Warnings look good, though area of forecast PDS conditions has shrunk somewhat with the latest NBM guidance. Still a very slight chance of a high-based windy t-storm along the dryline near the KS border this afternoon, better chances stay farther east in KS. Main risk from a storm will be gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning, which could generate a few fire starts.

Strong winds and high fire danger continue past sunset this evening, before humidity improves enough to end Red Flag conditions after midnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Upper jet remains over the area on Thu, keeping windy and dry conditions going, though winds don't look quite as strong as Wed, especially on the plains, where a few models show a nly surge and perhaps some higher dewpoints late in the afternoon. Still appears we'll have at least 3 hours of critical conditions at most locations from late morning into mid-afternoon, so have converted the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for all locations, though will acknowledge that conditions may likely improve from late afternoon into the evening, especially on the plains. Could see a sprinkle/flurry over the higher peaks and Palmer Divide Thu afternoon/evening as mid levels moisten, though dry surface layer will keep precip amounts minimal. Max temps will fall some 5-15 degf at many locations Thu as trough knocks down the mid-level thermal ridge, though readings will still be well above average.

Still can't get rid of the upper jet on Fri, though mid-level flow decreases in many model forecasts as main jet segment drifts into nrn CO/srn WY by evening. Could still see spotty critical fire weather conditions for a few hours, especially back over the high terrain, though not enough confidence for a highlight at this point. Forcing for precip remains well north through Friday night, with a sprinkle/flurry at best over the central mountains, dry elsewhere. Maxes Fri end up near Thu numbers at most locations.

Weekend into early next week still looks cooler and unsettled, though a good amount of 00z guidance has continued to trend northward with both forcing and moisture, leaving much of southern Colorado on the drier side of the passing wave train. Best chances for measurable precip still appear to be Sunday, with Continental Divide having a reasonably good chance of 0.25 to 0.50 inches of liquid (several inches of snow above 9k feet) by early Monday. Elsewhere, suspect weekend NBM pops are overdone given 00z model trends, and won't be too surprised to see precip chances trend downward over the next day or 2 as earlier/wetter ensemble members continue to drop off.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain relatively light, less than 10 knots, overnight and into early tomorrow morning. By mid to late morning, winds will start to increase in magnitude as diurnal mixing develops, and peak during the afternoon hours, with gusts up to 40 knots possible, particularly for KALS. In addition, blowing dust may also be possible tomorrow afternoon as the strongest winds materialize, which could quickly drop visibility conditions. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of high level clouds continue.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ221- 222-224>237. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ069-070.