textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing coverage of thunderstorms for today, especially mountains with locally heavy rainfall possible

- Drier and warmer for Thursday and Friday with isolated thunderstorms both days as focus shifts across the plains

- Slight uptick in thunderstorm coverage again for Saturday followed by daily isolated thunderstorms into early next week with more summer like temperatures

UPDATE

Issued at 758 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Quick update to tail back precipitation chances as latest model runs have trended drier. Still think we could see some showers or weak thunderstorms spread up across the far southeast plains later tonight in area of WAA/overrunning. Any lingering thunderstorms should be weak, bringing some spotty rainfall and lightning. -KT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Upper level circulation across NM will lift northeastward across southeast CO today bringing a swath of higher specific humidities across southern CO. This will ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances, especially over the mountains where elevated heating will also help initiate thunderstorms by early afternoon. Another swath of showers and thunderstorms will develop during the mid to late afternoon east of the surface trough axis across the far southeast plains, in closer proximity to the circulation center aloft. HREF mean CAPE shows values of under 1000 J/kg across the mountains and southeast plains. Deep layer shears will run around 15-25 kts so thunderstorms will likely stay poorly organized with locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and lightning the primary risks. Will need to monitor the burn scars (24 and Oak Ridge) because some high res models show a spotty inch rainfall amounts under the heavier cores. Flash flood risk looks low though, due to the spotty coverage of the stronger cells. Soundings still show inverted V profiles across the valleys where gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will be possible. Otherwise, temperatures will warm a few degrees over yesterday with highs back into the 80s across the plains, 70s for the valleys, and 50s and 60s for the mountains.

Thunderstorm activity diminishes in the evening as the circulation center shears out and lifts off to the northeast. Overnight lows should stay mild due to lingering low level moisture out west and some enhanced westerly downslope flow into the lee side trough.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Drier air filters in across CO under more westerly flow aloft as the southern stream upper low stays shunted well to the south. A weak wave embedded in this modest westerly flow aloft does bring some mid and high based moisture for some isolated to scattered mountain thunderstorms in the afternoon. These will push off into the adjacent plains through the evening. Shear and CAPE are relatively weak, so some spotty rainfall, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary risk. Coverage of thunderstorms on Friday look even less. Temperatures heat back up again for both Thursday and Friday.

Another disturbance will eject to the northeast from the mean trough/upper low across old Mexico for Saturday. This will bring a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms to southern CO for Saturday. Gusty winds, lightning and light to moderate rainfall will be the primary risks. Temperatures will remain above normal.

Southern CO will be back underneath the upper ridge for Sunday for another hot and dry day. Temperatures will climb well into the 90s across the plains with 70s and 80s for the valleys and 50s and 60s for the mountains. This will definitely feel like a more summer like day. Southwest flow transitions over CO for early next week as a new upper low/mean trough pushes into the western U.S. Weak disturbances will translate through the flow across CO bringing episodic afternoon and evening thunderstorms with continued above normal temperatures. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

At KCOS, VFR overnight as light north drainage winds should keep stratus formation at bay. On Wed, VFR conditions, with a prob30 for -tsra 20z-01z as a couple waves of showers/storms move into the I-25 corridor. Convection shifts south and east of the terminal after 01z, with north winds gradually diminishing toward 06z.

At KPUB, weak drainage winds developing overnight should keep stratus at bay, with VFR conditions through the night and during the day on Wed. Added a prob30 for -tsra starting at 23z as storms drift into the I-25 corridor, then convection ends/shifts east after 03z with winds trending toward light n-ne by after 03z.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Low chance (10-20 percent) of a tsra and gusty outflow Wed afternoon, though haven't included a mention in the taf yet, as bulk of the activity may stay closer to the high terrain. Even without a -shra/-tsra at the station, outflows from distant storms/virga may produce brief periods of strong/erratic winds Wed afternoon/early evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.