textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming through midweek, with 80s today, with near record heat Wednesday on the Plains.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Central Mountains into the San Luis Valley Monday and Tuesday, spreading east on Wednesday due to gusty winds and low humidity.

- Better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive by late in week and next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Currently....radar early this morning shows a few light rain showers progressing east-southeast along the Highway 50 corridor. This activity will continue to weaken, with dry conditions forecast to prevail after 2 AM. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s across the Plains, and cloud cover will likely keep temperatures pretty steady into the morning hours.

Today and tonight...broad northwesterly flow with embedded energy will continue across southern Colorado through the next 24 hours. Low level southeasterly flow will help keep moisture pooled across the Plains, with dewpoints in the upper 40s along the I-25 corridor, and mid 50s near the Kansas border. Temperatures will warm into this afternoon, with 70s to lower 80s across the Plains. This will help destabilize the atmosphere with SBCAPE values along the Eastern Mountains into the I-25 corridor around 1000 j/kg. 0-6 km shear looks to increase to near 30 to 35 kts. With the weak energy moving southeast across the state this afternoon, a few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across the southern Sangre de Cristo Range, and into the Raton Mesa region. Hail to near 3/4 of a inch in diameter and wind gusts near 50 mph. A severe storm may be possible across the Raton Mesa this afternoon and evening. North across the Pikes Peak Region, and isolated thunderstorm may also be possible.

Gusty winds and low humidity values will move into the Central Mountains and northern San Luis Valley by this afternoon producing spotty, critical fire weather conditions. Caution is advised with any outdoor burning over these areas.

Any shower and thunderstorm activity that does develop this afternoon will quickly track south and east this evening, dissipating by midnight. Once storms clear the area, dry conditions will prevail into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the lower elevations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Not much change to the forecast thinking with the current model cycles. Flow will transition from northwesterly aloft with southwesterly by later this week into the weekend. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day, with near record heat, with increasing shower and thunderstorm potential late this week into the weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday...northwesterly flow will continue across southern Colorado, as upper ridging builds across the Great Basin. Dry conditions will prevail across the region both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will also be on the rise, with 80s and 90s for Tuesday, and upper 90s to lower 100s on Wednesday. Record highs Wednesday will be possible (KCOS record is 97 with a forecast high of 97, and KPUB record is 103 with a forecast high of 103). Precautions should be taken to protect yourself from the heat by seeking shade outdoors, limiting physical activity and finding air conditioning if possible. Spotty, critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible on Tuesday for the Central Mountains, southeast across the San Luis Valley. By Wednesday, strong northwesterly flow will spread east into the Eastern Mountains and portions of the I-25 corridor. Winds gusting to near 40 mph and humidity values under 10 percent are forecast, and a Fire Weather Watch is now in place for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Monday...the upper ridging to the west is forecast to shift east across Colorado Thursday into Friday, with upper troughing developing over the weekend into early next week. A cold front will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning with much cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s across the Plains. Dry conditions will prevail on Thursday. By Friday, low level flow becomes southerly across the Plains, slowly advecting moisture back across the Plains. Temperatures will remain warm with 80s and 90s. Instability will also increase, and shear will steadily increase through the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to increase Saturday through Monday, along with the potential for stronger or severe storms Sunday. This will need to be monitored. For areas along the Continental Divide, and into the San Luis Valley, daily spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

At KALS, prob30 for -tsra early this afternoon, then activity shifts southeast and risk ends after 21z. Gusty and erratic winds the main threat with any storms. Once storms end, VFR this evening and overnight, with decreasing winds.

At KCOS, low risk of convection drifting off the higher terrain to the west this afternoon, so will include a vcsh 21z-00z to account for this. Main threat from any -shra/-tsra will be gusty and erratic winds. Convection ends quickly this evening, with VFR conditions overnight into Tue morning.

At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, as convection should stay north and west of the terminal. Suspect we'll see brief periods of gusty outflow winds from distant storms late this afternoon and into the evening, before winds diminish overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Spotty, critical fire weather conditions are forecast from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains and San Luis Valley this afternoon, and again Tuesday. Dangerous fire weather conditions will spread east into the Eastern Mountains, and along the I-25 corridor on Wednesday, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Winds gusting near 40 mph and humidity values under 10 percent along with hot temperatures are forecast.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ220>225-228>230.