textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued critical and near critical fire weather conditions into early evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, which continue into the overnight hours behind a stronger cold front.

- Much cooler on Sunday, with highest chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.

- Hot, drier and breezy weather for the middle to end of next week will bring critical fire weather conditions back across south central and southeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Continue to monitor surface cold front dropping south across the plains this afternoon for strengthening northerly winds, increased potential for critical fire weather conditions, as well bringing increased moisture to the plains. Have mainly observed northerly winds gusting to around 35 mph as this front has pushed through, with most locations over the plains observing a one to two hour window of critical fire weather conditions. With dew points and RH values quickly improving post FROPA, have not expanded the Red Flag Warning at this time. For the two zones in the Red Flag Warning, this has mostly verified, especially for the Lake and Chaffee county/zones. Will keep the end times for both zones this evening, however, could see the Pueblo county/zone improving slightly before the end time.

Shower and thunderstorm development has remained limited this afternoon, however, have begun to see shower development over the southwest mountains and valleys as mid level energy has increased the region. This will likely continue and spread east through the afternoon, reaching the southeast mountains and far southern I-25 corridor. Thunderstorms will remain possible, but with limited instability, don't think severe weather will be possible in this area this afternoon. Have observed isolated thunderstorm development over the far southeast plains here recently, developing along the cold front and surface trough. Higher instability in this location is supporting some more robust updrafts at this time, and given high amount of DCAPE, think a stronger storm or two with strong wind gusts will remain possible in this area this afternoon.

The energy pushes east through the evening, with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms expected to remain across the southeast plains. Additional increases in moisture through this time frame will support increased instability and with shear increasing as well, would not be surprised to see a strong to severe storm or two later this evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible but don't anticipate any severe weather in these locations.

Much cooler and more moist air arrives tonight and with deeper easterlies in place, think showers and isolated thunder will remain possible. By Sunday, this cooler air will support much cooler temperatures across southern Colorado. Additionally, instability gets pushed across the mountains and mountain valleys on Sunday. Highest chances for stronger thunderstorms will be across these locations.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged for Monday and Tuesday, and will lead to temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels. There will be enough available moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, with the potential for stronger storms with said northwest flow aloft.

Increasing westerly flow remains progged across the region for the middle to end of next week, as upper level ridging across the Desert SW remains progged to build into the Rockies. Increasing flow will bring critical fire weather conditions back across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, along with temperatures back to well above seasonal levels, with triple digits readings possible across the southeast plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A period of gusty winds is appearing likely at all sites this period, given the stronger flow aloft and cold front pushing across the plains. Will see west northwest gusts develop across ALS this afternoon with winds turning more easterly later this evening, and with gusts continuing. Current north northeast winds and gusts at COS and PUB will become more easterly through the afternoon. Think winds will easily gust to 30 kt, occasionally to 35 kt, at each site through the evening.

VFR conditions with mainly dry weather for ALS this period, though can't rule out a stray shower this afternoon, and once again late in the period. Isolated to widely scattered showers remain possible across COS and PUB this afternoon through this evening. During this time, there remains a low chance for thunder, and so have continued the prob30 at this time. Drizzle or light rain is expected during the overnight hours. The forecasted MVFR ceilings still look on track for both COS and PUB, and didn't make any changes at this time. Given the southeast to east flow, don't think much improvement will occur through the end of the period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-228.