textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty critical fire weather conditions return for today, then more widespread for Monday, as dry and warm conditions persist.

- Chance for some light precipitation and even some thunder Tuesday afternoon and evening across the eastern mountains and plains.

- Increasing fire danger Thursday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1140 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Currently...Colorado remains situated between an upper low off the coast of the California Baja, and an upper shortwave pushing east across the central US. North to northwest flow aloft was in place across the state, with some high level cloudiness beginning to filter into the Rocky Mt region. Temps as of midnight have cooled into the 30s across the plains, and 20s for the high valleys, but overnight low readings early Sunday morning should dip into the 20s for the plains and Upper Arkansas River Valley, and teens for the San Luis Valley.

Today and Tonight...The upper low to our southwest will remain somewhat stationary over the next 24 hrs, while the flow aloft across Colorado becomes more westerly with a gradual tightening of the pressure gradient. Increasing downslope flow today will help boost afternoon highs into the 60s and 70s for the eastern plains, and 50s to near 60F for the high valleys. While westerly winds will be increasing today, the strongest potential gusts will be found in those gap flow areas along the southern I-25 Corridor closer to the New Mexico state line. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across Huerfano and western Las Animas counties this afternoon. Spotty conditions may crop up across the southern portions of the San Luis Valley as well as other portions of the eastern plains, but feel that those cases will not last long enough or cover enough ground to warrant any expansion to the existing warning. Tonight plan on mostly clear skies, and overnight lows in the teens to mid 20s for the high valleys, and 30s across the plains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Monday...The Pacific low pressure system starts to push onshore on Monday, following the southern US border and reaching the southern AZ border through Mon night. Meanwhile, increasing westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin and Rocky Mt regions will result in greater downslope flow for the forecast area, and potentially a more widespread fire weather event. High temps are forecast to climb into the 60s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Combined with a rather large area of minimum RH levels of 5 to 15 percent, decided to expand the ongoing Fire Weather Watch to include Fremont, Pueblo and southern El Paso counties. Overnight lows will likely be a bit more mild as well with the increased winds, with 20s to around 30F for the high valleys, and 30s to lower 40s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Tuesday is looking to be a somewhat active day as the upper low to our southwest starts to pick up speed and eject to the northeast across NM and towards the OK and TX Panhandles through the day. It will all come down to timing, but at this time it looks like precip chances increase across the southern mts and plains by midday, then spread across all of the eastern plains through the afternoon with an added potential for some thunder. Again, timing will mean everything, dictating convection strength and areal coverage. Some models are indicating all the CAPE will be east of CO, but the difference comes down to around 50 miles, so the southeast corner still has a decent shot. It will still be a very warm day for much of the area, considering a warmer start, but a cold front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide during the evening, allowing precip to linger into the night. On Wednesday, post-frontal, conditions dry out but afternoon highs will be much more seasonal with 50s for most areas, and nearing 60F for the San Luis Valley. One thing to keep an eye on will be the speed of the approaching cold front Tue eve. A quicker progression will have an effect on max temps, but could increase bulk shear during the prime convection window.

Thursday through Saturday...A very familiar pattern then settles back in starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Brisk west to northwest flow aloft will bring a return of dry conditions and above normal temperatures, leading to increased fire danger once again. The NBM brings isolated moisture back to the central mts starting Sat evening but confidence is low at this time with that solution. Moore

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR the next 24 hrs at all taf sites. Winds will remain light, generally at/below 10 kts.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ222-224-227-228. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Sunday for COZ229-230. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ229-230.