textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger continues for portions of the area today through Sunday, with the most widespread conditions Wednesday and again Saturday.

- Very hot temperatures are forecast for Wednesday, with Heat Advisories in place for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Widespread temperatures 95 to 105 degrees are forecast.

- Increasing chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Tuesday, however, details still need to be worked out.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Currently...quiet weather has spread across southern Colorado early this morning as an upper wave departs to the south. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies. Temperatures remain mild, with 50s and 60s across the Plains, with lows by sunrise in the lower to mid 50s.

Today and tonight...broad northwesterly flow continues across the region with an upper trough to the east and ridge off the West Coast. A lack of upper level energy along with drier air moving in from the northwest will help keep southern Colorado dry today and tonight. The main concern for today with be high fire danger for the Central Mountains, La Garita Range, northern San Luis Valley and western Fremont County. Humidity values will be low, with values under 15 percent. Winds will also be gusty, in the 40 to 45 mph range this afternoon. More spotty critical fire weather conditions are forecast for the San Juan Range and southern San Luis Valley. Across the Plains, weak southerly flow will help keep minimum humidity values at or above 15 percent. Afternoon high temperatures today will continue to warm, with upper 80s to mid 90s across the Plains. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Models remain in decent agreement through the extended period, with upper ridging moving across Colorado Thursday and Friday, with upper trough developing over the Great Basin with increasing southwesterly flow for the weekend. Very hot temperatures are forecast on Wednesday along with more widespread fire weather concerns.

Wednesday...northwesterly flow aloft increasing by the early afternoon with enhanced mixing expected across the region. This will help boost temperatures into the upper 90s to lower 100s across the Plains. Records will likely be tied or broken at the 3 climate sites (KALS record 92 and forecast of 92, KCOS record of 97 and forecast of 98, and KPUB record of 103 and forecast of 103). Due to the high temperature forecast, Heat Advisories have been issued for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Elsewhere, temperatures will be just below the heat risk criteria with 100 to 105 for much of the Plains. Caution should be taken with outdoor activities and drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. In addition to the hot temperatures, high fire danger will spread from the higher terrain down into the I-25 corridor by the afternoon. Gusty winds near 40 to 45 mph and humidity values well under 10 percent will produce the dangerous conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the western half of the CWA.

Wednesday night through Friday...a cold front associated with a shortwave passing well to the northeast will drop across the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Not much moisture around, and no precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. overnight lows by Thursday morning will fall into the 50s for most of the Plains. Upper ridging will move across Colorado on Thursday with another dry day expected. A few cumulus buildings will be possible over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and a very isolated thunderstorms may be possible. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with highs 15 to 20 degrees cooler than those seen on Wednesday (80s across the Plains). Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Central Mountains, southeast into the San Luis Valley on Thursday. By Friday the upper ridge will shift east into the Kansas and flow aloft shifts southwesterly. Moisture will begin to return to the region, with increasing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the higher terrain to the adjacent Plains. Elevated fire weather will continue over the Central Mountains and northern portions of the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will continue to warm, with mostly upper 80s across the Plains.

Saturday through Tuesday...upper trough will remain in place out west, with generally southwesterly flow aloft spreading across southern Colorado. Embedded energy will lead to periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially on Sunday and Monday. On Saturday, increased southwesterly flow and mixing will lead to more widespread critical fire weather conditions for most of the area due to gusty winds and low humidity values. The dryline may have a few thunderstorms develop along it out near the Kansas border. On Sunday, southerly flow is forecast across the Plains advecting low level moisture north across out Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be more widespread across the region. A cold front looks to arrive by Monday, with another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance has been consistent with the Sunday to Monday period begin wet across the Plains. This trend looks to continue into Tuesday. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible over the Central Mountains and northern San Luis Valley Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. KALS has the best chance of seeing some gusty NW winds developing by late afternoon, so introduced gusts to 25 kts starting at 00z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon for the Central Mountains, Continental Divide, San Luis Valley and Fremont County. The area of main concern will be from the La Garita Range, northern San Luis Valley, western Fremont County and Central Mountains, where winds will gust near 40 mph with humidly values under 15 percent. Further south, winds will be lighter with more spotty critical conditions.

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for areas west of I-25 on Wednesday. Increased northwesterly flow, very hot temperatures and humidity values well under 10 percent will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions. Winds could gust as high as 45 to possibly 50 mph, especially for the Central Mountains.

Periods of critical fire weather conditions will continue, mainly for the La Garita Range, Central Mountains and northern San Luis Valley Thursday into Sunday. More widespread conditions into the Plains are possible on Saturday.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222>224. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ220>225-228>230. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ083>086.