textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Lighter winds gives us a break from critical fire weather conditions today.

- Some strong to severe storms possible this afternoon over portions of the eastern plains, mainly north of highway 50.

- Moisture increases slowly in the mountains heading into next week, with chances for showers and storms each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Winds will be a bit weaker aloft today as our region sits between a weak high pressure system to our south, along with an incoming trough from the northwest. Winds behind the passing front will turn easterly by early this afternoon, allowing for some better upsloping and low-level moisture. This will give us a brief reprieve from critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave disturbance will pass overhead, giving us enough lift to initiate some showers and thunderstorms. Latest model guidance indicates storms moving into the Pikes Peak Region by mid-afternoon, with general activity following the shortwave east-southeast. Best chances for strong to severe storms will mainly be El Paso and Kiowa Counties, with lesser but non-zero chances over most of the eastern plains north of Highway 50. These areas could be seeing 1000+ J/kg of CAPE paired with 30-40 knots of shear for a few hour in the afternoon. Low-level moisture, while sufficient for a few isolated to scattered storms, will still be lacking. Therefore, most likely impact threats will be strong outflow winds, along with the lower chance for hail out of stronger storms.

High temperatures today will be in the 80s-90s, warmest further east. Overnight, partly cloudy and mild temps, with decent RH recovery over the higher terrain, around 60-65 percent.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Models remain on track for late this weekend and into next week. High pressure will continue building in over the region, with weak to modest southwest flow setting up beneath the upper ridge. This will allow for more moisture to move into the mountains, allowing for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Initially, storms will be high-based, with best chances for impacts relating to dry lightning and strong outflow winds. Chances for heavy rainfall will increase heading into early next week as moisture content and PWATs rise. This will being an increasing chance for wetting rains, along with flash flooding concerns for any burn areas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are anticipiated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. East to southeast winds at COS and PUB will keep chances of showers and storms through the afternoon and evening, with best chances of storms at the terminals being at COS, with gusty outflow winds up to 40kts being the main threat. While storms may not develop at PUB, gusty outflows will remain a threat through the evening hours. Generally light diurnal winds at ALS through the afternoon, with breezy easterly winds possible aft 00z as surface high pressure backs across the southeast plains.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.