textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are expected each afternoon over the far eastern plains.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the mountains and San Luis Valley each afternoon through at least Wednesday.

- Some moisture may return to the mountains later in the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Another warm day across the region as high pressure dominates to our south. Winds aloft will remain out of the west across the region, though flow won't be particularly strong. Over the mountains, dry surface conditions and downsloping flow will cause critical fire weather conditions for several hours this afternoon. Red Flag Warning is in effect 1pm-8pm for our western mountains and the San Luis Valley.

Over the plains, highs will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, hovering in the 80s to low-90s. Breezy southeast winds will advect some moist air into the area, and with a shortwave trough passing over later in the day, showers and thunderstorms are expected. There will be ample instability in the area, with 500-800 J/kg of CAPE or so around the Palmer, where storms are likely to initiate first in the early afternoon. CAPE increases to the southeast along with moisture content, so as storms move in that direction they are expected to intensify. Shear will pick up as the shortwave moves overhead as well, leading to a window for strong to severe storms through most of the afternoon and into early evening. Main impact concerns will be large hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado or two.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The evolution of the long-term forecast remains fairly consistent with previous data. High pressure continues hovering to our south, leaving breezy west winds aloft over the region. For the mountains, this means repeated critical fire weather conditions each afternoon, mainly over our western mountains and the San Luis Valley, thanks to downsloping. Temperatures will remain warm, increasing again later in the week.

For the plains, surface winds will turn east-southeast in the afternoons, and several passing shortwave disturbances will allow for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Given the amount of moisture in place, storms closer to the CO/KS border will be strong to severe, with hail and wind as the main threats but with a few isolated tornadoes possible as well.

Our next pattern shift is expected to arrive around Thursday-Friday. An upper trough is expected to start amplifying over the Pacific Northwest, and as it moves our area will see better chances for more widespread precipitation. However, if the system moves north of us, we may just get stronger winds and, as a result, more widespread fire weather concerns instead. Will have to wait and see how the data handles things in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the next 24 hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across the eastern plains in the afternoon. Breezy southeast winds, gusting 20-25 knots, will be followed by passing storms. Have included as PROB30s for now given the isolated to scattered coverage expected. Outflow winds could hit 40 knots, accompanied by brief periods of rain and lightning before storms move on and winds weaken near the end of the period.

Meanwhile, KALS will remain dry, with gusty west-southwest flow around 20 knots during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon through the next several days, mainly over the mountains and the San Luis Valley. Warm temperatures will combine with dry air and downsloping, breezy west winds to create conditions supportive of dangerous fire behavior. There will be a brief lull in critical conditions around the end of the week, as winds aloft weaken and a bit more moisture moves in, but depending on how the wind pattern shifts this weekend more widespread critical conditions will be possible.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-223-224. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ220-223-224.