textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm up gets underway next week which will dry out fuels once again. - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms ramp up mid to late week though precipitation amounts look spotty and light

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions increase late week into next weekend along with the winds at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Clouds have been gradually clearing across the southeast plains this afternoon with clear skies returning overnight. With dry weather and clear skies, mountain valleys will likely drop back into the mid 20s to lower 30s and have cooled some of our cold pocket valleys a few degrees from NBM. Elsewhere National Blend of Models looked reasonable. Did bump up dew points slightly as upslope flow hasn't allowed for much drying on the plains.

Upper ridging builds in for Monday bringing warmer temperatures to the region once again. Temperatures will rebound back to summer like readings with highs well into the 80s across the plains, 70s to lower 80s for the valleys and 50s and 60s for the mountains. Winds should stay relatively light and below critical fire weather thresholds as the pressure gradient weakens aloft within the building ridge. -KT

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Continued above normal temperatures can be expected through the week as upper ridging builds in for Tuesday, then shifts eastward for Wednesday giving way to more a more zonal active flow pattern through late week as Pacific systems ride through the flow. Temperatures will top out near 90 across the plains most days, and even some 80s across the mountain valleys. The weather looks dry through Tuesday with fairly light winds under the ridge though the northern periphery across the central mountains/valleys could see some afternoon breezes at times. Overall, the fire weather risk looks low for now.

Winds increase for Wednesday into next weekend as the flow becomes more zonal on the whole. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will spread back into the mountains as transient southwest flow ahead of the next trough advects some mid/high level moisture in from the southwest. These will likely be high based showers and not much in the way of precipitation makers. Will need to monitor the San Luis Valley for potential Red Flag Warnings if winds increase quickly enough.

The spread in the models increases with the track of the next Pacific system. The operational 12z GFS is considerably farther south and closed off with it as it moves across CO on Friday, which is a rather large diversion from its previous progressive, weaker and farther north storm track. It is the outlier of the 12z runs. EC has stayed fairly consistent with this system glancing by as an open wave to the north. Ensembles, including the GEFs, supports the more open EC solution as well, so overall expect some isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm chances over the mountains, above normal temperatures, and increasing winds with elevated to critical fire weather chances ramping up as fuels dry out towards late week into next weekend. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 511 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours with light winds overnight. Westerly winds will increase at KALS, while KCOS and KPUB see southerly winds near 10 to 12 kts Monday afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.