textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry Sunday with increasing winds

- Critical fire weather conditions expected everyday next week, with potential for high end fire weather days, especially Tuesday

- Rain and snow showers return to the mountains and valleys next week, heavy snow possible along the Continental Divide

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 101 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper ridge builds over the Rockies tonight and Sunday, bringing dry conditions and well above average temperatures Sunday afternoon. Highs will push into the 60s/low 70s plains, with 50s/60s high valleys, 40s/50s mountains as heights rise and pronounced mid level thermal ridge develops across srn CO. Winds begin to increase Sunday afternoon over the mountains along/west of I-25 as surface lee trough develops on the plains. Getting enough wind and low humidity for some enhanced fire weather conditions over the Pikes Peak region and a narrow strip of the plains west of I-25, though with recent rain/snow over the area and at least patchy snow cover over Teller County, won't issue any highlights at this point.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 101 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper trough deepens along the West Coast Monday with surface low low pressure falling on the plains as a result. Increasing winds aloft and tightening pressure gradient should bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of the I-25 corridor, especially along and west of the Interstate, with less wind farther east where gradient loosens quickly. Expanded the current fire weather watch to include Fremont County, as wind may keep just enough wly component for some gap flow enhancement here, while keeping remainder of the original watch intact. Max temps Wed will continue to rise, with readings into the 60s/70s lower elevations, 40s/50s mountains.

Energy begins to eject from the western U.S. trough Monday night, with a significant wave and 180 kt upper jet streak passing over Colorado Tue. Should see snow start along the Continental Divide by sunrise Tuesday, with periods of wind driven snow over the higher mountains (especially the ern San Juans/Wolf Creek Pass) through the day. Story farther east will be potential for strong and damaging winds plus high fire danger, especially along and east of I-25. Mid level flow really increases through the day as jet comes overhead, with 7h/60kt at 5h/90kt winds over the plains south the Arkansas during strongest mixing in the afternoon. Grids have winds reaching high wind criteria already, though still a little early for a High Wind Watch, as position of the upper jet has sagged a little south in some of the 14/12z deterministic models, so we'll hold off another cycle or two. Fire weather watch definitely on track along and east of I-25, and while current models/ensembles don't drive dewpoints down low enough for a extremely critical conditions (RH of 9 percent or less, winds over 55 mph), we could get close as models tend to struggle getting the air mass dry enough under strong wly flow.

Will note some models and the NBM have rather high (20-50 percent) pops spilling into the I-25 corridor Tue, suspect this is overdone due to terrain resolution issues as strong downslope subsidence and drying will tend to diminish any showers, with just virga at best at most locations.

Wednesday - Friday: active weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado, with critical fire weather conditions remaining the biggest concern. Synoptically, a prolonged period of strong westerly to southwesterly flow will setup over the region, bringing a period of increased orographic forcing over the mountains, along with gusty winds through the week. Confidence remains high (70-80%) in this pattern evolution given continued strong agreement between model guidance. Looking at precipitation, showers are expected across the mountains and valleys next week given the persistent orographic forcing in place. The greatest coverage of showers and heavier snowfall will remain along the Continental Divide. The plains are expected to remain fairly dry given strong downsloping winds. The greatest weather concern is still expected to be a prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions. Gusty to strong winds, and low humidity values, will be in place across the plains everyday and fire danger will remain high. Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal values are anticipated early in the week, with a cool down by midweek, though with temperatures still hovering slightly above seasonal values. Some relaxation in the pattern is possible late Friday into Saturday as at least some models/ensembles show some temporary upper ridging building over the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1048 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, with briefly gusty (g20ktS) north winds this afternoon diminishing this evening.

At KALS, VFR today and into this evening, then low risk of MVFR/brief IFR due to fog/low clouds Sun morning due to lingering moisture in the Valley.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for COZ226>230. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ226>237.