textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Round of rain and snow will continue along the Continental Divide with snow levels dropping late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening bringing some light to moderate accumulations along the Continental Divide.

- Showers spread eastward across the plains Wednesday and Wednesday night with much cooler temperatures expected.

- Hard Freeze possible for the San Luis Valley Wednesday night and Thursday, with a frost or freeze possible across the southeast plains Thursday and Friday nights. Freeze Watch issued for the San Luis Valley.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Upper low over NV will continue to dig south southeastward into NW Arizona before lifting towards the 4 corners region overnight. Waves of moisture will continue to funnel off and on rain and snow showers into the Continental Divide through tonight. Snow levels will waver between 10 and 11 kft bringing some periodic 1 to 2 inch amounts across the higher areas of the eastern San Juan mountains. Impacts at mountain pass levels will mainly be wet roads and restrictions to visibility during snowfall, but with temperatures in the 30s, it will be difficult to see much accumulation on road surfaces until later tonight.

Otherwise, the southeast plains will remain dry again today, though a cold front in NE CO will begin to backdoor into northern portions of the southeast plains during the late afternoon and evening. Nudged high temperatures down a bit across the Palmer and northern portions of Kiowa county accordingly following the faster NAM, though it is possible the front could stall along our northern fringe during the day.

The cold front makes a stronger push into the southeast plains this evening with stratus and fog developing along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and plains after midnight. Broad WAA overrunning will spread across the southeast plains in response to increasing upper forcing out west from the approaching closed low. This will allow for some light showers to spread into the southeast mountains and adjacent plains towards dawn.

Meanwhile another wave of snowfall will spread into the Continental Divide as snow levels drop to around 9000 feet towards dawn...bringing the start of potentially more travel impacting snow for the Continental Divide.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Wednesday will be noticeably colder and unsettled across southern CO as widespread stratus, mountain snow, and lower elevation rain showers spread eastward as the upper low lifts across central CO during the day. 00z GFS, while still faster with the system, has trended farther south with the storm track vs the other models/ensemble means which would bring a period of wrap around precipitation farther south into southern CO Wednesday afternoon and evening. This more tightly wrapped up system also brings some mid level instability across the plains and can't rule out a few strong storms with small hail and strong winds given decent shear. The best instability will likely remain to the south, so do not think the severe threat will be there, but it bears watching. Snow levels over the mountains drop to around 8500 feet by Wed evening and the southeast mountains could see some brief light accumulations across the higher areas, though residual ground warmth will likely limit impacts to wet road conditions for the mountain communities. A few inches of snow accumulations will be possible across the higher peaks of the Sangres, Wets and Pikes Peak through Wednesday night, with around 3-8 inches possible across the central mountains where some travel impacts will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.

As the upper low lifts into NE CO Thursday morning, we should see some clearing out west and NBM has been consistent with forecasting a high probability (70+% chance) of a hard freeze for the San Luis Valley. Will issue a Freeze Watch for the San Luis Valley with this package since this is likely to be a growing season ending hard freeze.

There are still some differences in the models with storm track/timing as the upper low ejects to the northeast on Thursday. A slower track (Canadian/EC) could keep some wrap around showers going into Thursday across northern portions of the forecast area including the central mountains and Pikes Peak region. A faster ejection would suggest an earlier end to any precipitation. Either way, a reinforcing surge will bring gusty northerly winds up to 45 mph across the plains through the day. With the upper troughing hanging back over CO towards a retrograding upper low over the Desert Southwest, we will likely remain unsettled with scattered instability showers across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains through the day. It doesn't look like these will amount to much given the consensus of the storm track, but it will stay cool and unsettled.

A frost or freeze will be possible across the southeast plains Thursday and Friday nights as drier air spreads in allowing for efficient radiational cooling under clear skies. Lee troughing along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains may keep banana belt regions slightly warmer Fri night, but we may need frost or freeze highlights for portions of the southeast plains one or both nights.

Otherwise, dry and warmer weather will return for the weekend with temperatures returning to above normal by early next week. The pattern continues to look active into next week, as a new trough takes shape across the western U.S. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB over the next 24 hours.

KALS: Gusty winds set in early Tuesday morning, with a brief period of showers possible after 14Z or so. As a system moves into the region, gusts increase out of the southwest, and ceilings start to drop towards MVFR.

KCOS: LLWS is expected overnight, with breezy SW winds aloft. Winds turn SE Tues afternoon, gusting to about 30 knots. Clouds increase in the evening ahead of an incoming front.

KPUB: Generally west flow overnight, increasing after 18-20Z with gusts around 20-25 knots. Clouds start to increase in the evening ahead of an incoming front.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ069>071.