textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash Flood Watch today for the Aspen Acres burn scar due to the potential for heavy rainfall with thunderstorms.

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will initiate across the higher terrain, and spread into the Plains today through Sunday.

- Cooler through Sunday, gradually warming and drier conditions next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows high pressure over the Southeast U.S. with trough along the West Coast. This has allowed southwesterly flow to spread across Colorado with energy moving into western Nebraska. A cold front has pushed south across the Plains with gusty north winds which will subside through the early morning hours. Temperatures are generally mild, with 60s and 70s across the Plains.

Today and tonight...southwesterly flow aloft will continue through tonight, with an embedded upper wave lifting across Colorado. At the surface, low level flow will turn southeasterly by mid morning, keeping moisture pooled across the Plains with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. The combination of the upper wave, upslope low level flow and moisture will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop by midday across the higher terrain. PWAT values increase this afternoon, and weak CAPE near 1000 j/kg and weak 0-6km shear near 20 kts will allow for storms to become efficient rain producers, especially along the Eastern Mountains, and as they push east this afternoon in to the I-25 corridor. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Aspen Acres burn scar for this afternoon and evening, due to the areas of expected heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will lift northeast through this evening as the embedded upper wave moves into Nebraska. In addition to the heavy rainfall, stronger storms may be capable of producing wind gusts near 50 mph and half inch hail, mainly across the Plains north of Highway 50. This activity will continue to lift northeast through the overnight hours, clearing by tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be cooler today with mid 80s to lower 90s, with the warmest conditions near the Kansas border. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s across the Plains.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Active weather looks to continue into early next week before differences arise in the deterministic and ensemble solutions. The main differences beyond Monday deal with positioning of strength of the rebuilding upper high across the western states.

Friday through Sunday...models in good agreement through this period with the upper high over the Southeast states and broad southwesterly flow continuing across Colorado. Several embedded upper waves are forecast to track northeast across Colorado through the weekend, each bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

The first embedded wave will lift across Colorado on Friday. PWAT values remain elevated over an inch across the Plains and low level flow continues to keep moisture pooled along the Eastern Mountains. The NAM is most aggressive with the embedded upper wave, sparking convection across the Eastern Mountains by early afternoon. Modest CAPE and shear and the high PWAT values will once again enable storms to be heavy rain producers. The NAM lights up the whole of the Eastern Mountains, with higher- res guidance is a mix of focus areas, mainly the Palmer Divide depending on the upper vort max track. Given the uncertainty, did not issue any Flash Flood Watch for Friday, but know that one may be needed as models converge on a solution. Temperatures continue to cool on Friday, with mostly 80s across the lower elevations.

Not much change on Saturday, with another wave moving across Colorado. This will once again bring more showers and thunderstorms to the region. Guidance remain focused on the Palmer Divide and for areas north of Highway 50. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern and the flash flood risk remains elevated on areas burn scars. Temperatures continue to be pleasant, with 80s across the Plains.

By Sunday, the upper high to the southeast begins to retrograde west into Texas. This will bring one more day of southwesterly flow aloft with embedded energy. PWAT values begin to fall, and rainfall efficiencies decrease. Still, any thunderstorms that move across burn scars will be capable of producing localized flash flooding. Temperatures on Sunday will continue to be nice, with 70s and 80s for highs.

Monday into Thursday...large differences in the models arrive next week. The one consistency between guidance and ensembles is a drying and warming trend, with the main differences coming with the position and strength of the retrograding upper ridge. The ECMWF is strongest with the upper high across Colorado for mid to late week. It is the warmest and driest solution. The GFS is a bit further west with the high over the Great Basin. This solution brings energy in northwest flow across the state a mid week cold front. Overall, NBM temperature guidance has a slow warming trend throughout next week, with mid 90s on the Plains by Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM guidance is also on the drier side, with showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1023 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions expected at all terminals overnight into Thu morning, as most -shra/-tsra activity has weakened and moved north of the Palmer Divide as of 05z. Cold front was through KCOS and KPUB as of 04z, with gusty (30-40 kt) north winds at both sites, diminishing by 09z. On Thu, wind turn se by midday at KCOS/KPUB, with sw winds after 18z at KALS. Tsra build over the mountains starting around 18z, with prob30 at all taf sites 20z-02z as storms move off the higher terrain. Gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall the main threats with any storms on Thu. Convection diminishes after 02z, though with lingering -shra, will keep vcsh at KCOS and KPUB 02z-06z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.