textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry Saturday, with winds and fire weather concerns ramping up for Sunday.

- Warm Monday, with elevated fire weather concerns, cooling Tuesday and Wednesday a few degrees.

- Changes on the way Thursday into Saturday, with much colder temperatures and snow chances, however, much uncertainty remains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

An upper ridge will build in over the region today, leaving us with a warm, quiet day. Temperatures will be in the 50s to mid-60s over the plains, and high-40s to low-50s in the valleys. Winds should remain on the lighter side, with cloud cover slowly increasing later in the day. The area will remain dry, though we avoid any elevated fire concerns for one more day.

Winds will increase aloft tonight, mixing down towards the surface by early Sunday morning. Downsloping winds and increased cloud cover will keep overnight lows a bit warmer, with 30s to near-40 over the plains, while the valleys remain in the teens-20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

Overall, models and ensembles remain in decent agreement through the extended period, with differences arising by late next week into next week with the incoming storm system.

Sunday...broad zonal westerly flow will prevail on Sunday across southern Colorado. Flow will be strong, especially in the morning hours as an embedded wave moves across the region. This could lead to a few gusts along the lee slopes of the Sangre de Cristo range in excess of 50 mph during the morning. This will help keep Sunday morning temperatures mild along the lee slopes. Flow increases across the region by the afternoon, with breezy conditions spreading into the I-25 corridor. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the I-25 corridor for the afternoon hours due to gusty winds, especially in gap wind prone areas, and humidity values falling under 15 percent. The enhanced mixing will also help temperatures warm through the 60s and into the lower to mid 70s on the Plains, and 50s across the San Luis Valley. An isolated snow shower may be possible through the day along the Continental Divide.

Sunday night through Wednesday...generally broad zonal southwest to westerly flow will prevail through mid week. Multiple weak wave will move across the state in the flow, with periods of isolated to scattered snow showers along the Continental Divide, with minor snow accumulations possible. Dry weather will prevail through mid week on the Plains.

Another round of elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Monday afternoon, mainly in gap wind prone areas, and the Plains south of Highway 50. Temperatures will remain warm on Monday, with mixing allowing temperatures to warm back into the 60s on the Plains, and 50s for the San Luis Valley. Flow aloft weakens a bit Tuesday into Wednesday, with less wind expected. Temperatures will also cool, with highs on the Plains mainly in the 50s to near 60.

Thursday through Saturday...multiple upper wave will impact the region for late in the week into next weekend. The deterministic guidance is split on the timing and depth of an upper trough forecast across the region. The GFS is deeper, colder and slower than the ECMWF which is a bit more progressive with the initial trough, with a secondary surge by Saturday.

The GFS drops a strong cold front on the Plains Thursday, with strong cold air advection, and increased precipitation chances on the Plains. The GFS supports all snow on the Plains by Thursday evening, with periods of snow backed along the Eastern Mountains and adjacent Plains overnight into Friday. The GFS supports temperatures falling into the 20s, with highs struggling to reach freezing Friday into Saturday.

The ECMWF is much more progressive with an initial trough, with mountain snow, and less cold air Thursday into Friday. It keeps the Plains mostly dry with more northwesterly low level flow, with a period of snow THursday night on the Palmer Divide. The ECMWF does bring colder temperatures to the area, but 30s to near 40. It is the secondary surge on the backside of the departing initial trough that brings better chances for snow across the area on Saturday, along with the colder air.

The NBM guidance seems to split the two solutions, with low pops on the Plains Thursday into Saturday, and cools temperatures in the 30s Friday into Saturday. Just know that much cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation increase from Thursday and beyond. Mozley

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1025 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today with increasing high cloudiness this afternoon and tonight. Winds will increase over the mountains overnight with westerly winds spreading into the KPUB terminal before 18z Sun. KCOS winds will likely remain light as it will be positioned in the downstream wake of Pikes Peak. However a band of gusty west winds will likely set up north and south of KCOS with a low end possibility of brief Low Level Wind Shear in the vicinity of KCOS Sun morning. For now, it looks like the increase in winds with height will be above the 2000 ft level, so did not introduce LLWS into the TAF as odds look too low but this will be monitored closely. KALS will see light and variable winds through the 24 hour TAF window. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for COZ221-222-226>230.