textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible tomorrow afternoon along and east of the I-25 corridor.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected within the San Luis and upper Arkansas River Valleys.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions expected to return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 106 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today and Tonight: For midweek, active weather continues for the area, with another day of severe weather and fire weather potential. Westerly flow will remain in place, with another embedded shortwave pushing across the region. While dry conditions are expected early in the day, and again overnight, thunderstorms are anticipated to blossom during the mid afternoon hours and persist into the evening hours. Storms along and east of the I-25 corridor may be strong to severe given shear of 40-50 knots, and moist easterly surface winds upsloping into the terrain. There is some uncertainty in how much moisture mixes during the afternoon, which would alter the primary severe concerns. If greater mixing develops, storms will be predominantly high based and outflow dominant, with strong winds to around 75 mph the main threat. If lesser mixing develops, storms will be less outflow dominant, and more cellular in nature, with large hail to around 1-1.5 inches and strong winds to 70 mph the primary threats. West of the I-25 corridor, more typical Summer type thunderstorms are expected, with lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds to around 40 mph expected. Also as alluded to, fire weather will be a concern as well. With the increased flow, dry, gusty winds will mix to the surface during the afternoon hours across western portions of the forecast area, with gusts to around 30 mph anticipated. These winds, combined with low humidity values between 12-15%, will bring critical fire weather conditions to the San Luis Valley and upper Arkansas River Valley, with spotty critical fire weather conditions along the rest of the higher terrain. As winds lessen and humidity values increase during the evening hours, critical fire weather conditions will end. Beyond all of that, breezy winds to around 20 to 25 mph are expected for most areas, with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Looking at temperatures, the daytime will bring near to slightly below seasonal values, with mild and near seasonal lows. For highs, the plains will be in the 80s, the valleys in the 80s to low 90s, and the mountains in the 60s to 70s. For lows, the plains will be in the 50s to low 60s, the valleys in the 40s to mid 50s, and the mountains in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 106 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Thursday - Friday: For the the later part of the week, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. Westerly flow and embedded shortwaves will remain in place. This flow, and associate shear, in combination with lingering moisture across the eastern plains, may allow for additional strong to severe thunderstorms both days east of the I-25 corridor, with large hail and strong winds the primary concerns. Thunderstorms are also expected across the mountains and valleys each day, with lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. Any showers and storms are expected to dissipate during the late evening and overnight hours as instability wanes. Otherwise, breezy conditions and partly cloudy skies are expected each day. Temperatures will start a slow warming trend, with near to slightly above seasonal values by Friday.

Saturday - Tuesday: For the weekend and into early next week, fire weather conditions return for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, southwesterly flow will develop over the region, bringing windy and dry conditions to the area. Confidence is fairly high (around 70%) given solid agreement from ensemble model guidance. Overall this pattern will bring dry conditions to the region, which will increase critical fire weather conditions areawide. Outside of that, gusty winds and partly clouds skies are expected each day. Looking at temperatures, much of the area will warm to above seasonal values.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MVFR stratus at COS and PUB, to break between 18Z-20Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, developing over the higher terrain through the afternoon and early evening, will push into the more unstable atmosphere in place across the I-25 Corridor and southeast Plains, leading to the potential for strong to severe storms at the terminals once again through the evening. Strong winds and hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter being the main threats, with locally heavy rainfall also bringing the threat of localized flash flooding. Storms to clear the area the I-25 Corridor through the evening, though may continue across the higher terrain through the overnight hours, with shortwave energy embedded withing the westerly flow aloft. Moist outflow from storms could once again develop MVFR/IFR stratus at COS and PUB once again early Thursday morning.

VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, with said passing shortwave, bringing low chances of showers and thunderstorms to ALS this afternoon and evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-224.