textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather conditions southern areas Sat-Sun with chance for strong to severe storms Palmer Divide and northern portions of the southeast plains

- Cooler Mon-Tue with a better chance for showers, especially Pikes Peak region.

- Gradually warming mid to late week with isolated daily thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across the mountains and plains this afternoon with high based dry lightning and gusty winds the primary concerns. Latest HREF develop these along the I-25 corridor towards 6 PM before moving them off to the east through the evening ahead of a weak shortwave moving through westerly flow aloft. These should exit into KS by around or shortly after midnight.

Next upper trough approaches out west on Saturday. Shallow front which makes a weak push into the southeast plains tonight will lift back northward in the afternoon as southwesterly mid/upper level winds increase ahead of the system. Dry air spreads northward off the Raton Ridge as breezy southwest winds mix down in the afternoon, with the front laying up across northern portions of the southeast plains in the afternoon. This will put critical fire weather conditions across much of the southeast and central mountains, and southern plains where fuels are critical. Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and added a tier of counties to the north along the I-25 corridor. To the north of the front, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of El Paso, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary risks with HREF showing highest CAPEs (1000-1500 J/kg) across Kiowa and Prowers counties. Thunderstorms may be a bit higher based for El Paso county with gusty winds and small hail the primary risks. But will need to see what happens with the tail end of the DCVZ and how far westward low level dew points return. Otherwise it will be another warm day across southern CO with temperatures well above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

The upper trough weakens and fills as it kicks northeastward across CO Sat night. Front drops through a portion of the southeast plains then lifts back north again on Sunday as southwest flow aloft increases again ahead of the next lobe of energy dropping towards the Great Basin Sun afternoon. Position of the frontal boundary will be pivotal in determining where higher pops and severe thunderstorm chances will set up to the north Sun afternoon versus gusty southwest winds and high fire danger to the south. Consensus of NBM members lifts the front back northward to along the Palmer Divide and across the east central plains and have opted to put up another Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for most of the southeast mountains and plains where fuels are critical. Kiowa county and southern El Paso counties carry the greatest uncertainty right now. Have opted to keep southern El Paso out of the watch for now, but put Kiowa county in. Further modifications may be needed as confidence increases in these details.

Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with severe storms to the north of the front. Elsewhere it will be warm and windy with isolated to scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms possible though fuels are either not critical or humidity values a tad too high for Fire Weather highlights.

Cold front makes a stronger push southward into the southeast plains Sunday night with the upper trough pivoting to the northeast across CO on Monday. Stratus and light showers develop overnight into Monday morning across the mountains and portions of the I-25 corridor. Front tries to lift back northward in the afternoon but will likely hang up near or just south of the Arkansas River valley in the afternoon. Right now it appears pretty stable behind the front with marginal dew point recovery, so this may end up being a cloudy day with some stratiform light precipitation sin the morning along and just east of the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon over the mountains where a little better instability may be realized. NBM suggests Monday night could be flirting with a freeze but suspect clouds and higher dew points will keep temperatures above freezing across the southeast plains.

Front drops southward again Monday evening with Tuesday starting out cloudy and cool before clouds break and thunderstorms develop over the mountains in the afternoon. Dew point return looks meager and CAPE modest at best, with a couple hundred J/kg across the southeast mountains. This will likely limit storm strengths even as another trough glances by to the north Tues night/Wed.

Upper flow gradually transitions to a more zonal pattern for mid to late week yielding a warm up and a little less thunderstorm activity, though at least some isolated mountain pops will be maintained most days. Don't really see any obvious critical fire weather days next week though the mountains will be breezy at times. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

KALS...a few showers are possible across the San Luis Valley late this afternoon into the evening. The main concern will be gusty outflow winds near 30 kts as they pass near the terminal. Outside of these showers, VFR conditions will prevail.

KCOS and KPUB...occasional gusts near 20 to 25 kts will be possible at KCOS this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will move off the higher terrain by late afternoon into the evening, with the primary concern being outflow wind gusts near 30 kts. This activity will clear through mid to late evening, with VFR conditions overnight into Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated dry lightning will be possible across portions of the southeast plains this evening before storms push eastward into Kansas. Much like yesterday, these could cause isolated fire starts where fuels are receptive.

Winds increase for Saturday and Sunday with Sunday being the windiest and driest day. Fire Weather Watches have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for Saturday and expanded slightly northeastward. New Fire Weather Watches have been posted for most of the southeast mountains and plains on Sunday. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220- 222-225-228>233-235-237. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ222-225-228>237.