textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather conditions across the far southeast plains through the evening, with the potential for high fire danger again Wednesday and Thursday across the interior valleys.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week, with the best coverage Tuesday and again late in the work week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly flow in place across the region, with a weak embedded wave translating across the Great Basin, as stronger westerly flow persists across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating mid and high level moisture streaming across the Great Basin and into the Rockies at this time. GOES satellite imagery is indicating high level clouds streaming across the region, along with some cumulus clouds developing across the southern mtns at this time. Current temperatures are in the 60s to low 70s across the southeast plains, with readings in the in 40s to low 60s in place across the mountains and high mountain valleys at this time.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Elongated lee troughing across the plains has gusty southwest winds in place across southeastern tier, strongest across Baca county, where current Red Flag Warning through 8 pm looks to be in good shape. With the weak embedded wave translating across the region this evening, will see lee trough pushing south and east allowing for a back door front to slide across the plains, with gusty north to northeast winds developing through the evening and diminishing overnight across the plains. Still can't rule out a few high based showers over and near the higher terrain through the afternoon and early evening, with more virga and gusty outflow winds expected than measurable precipitation. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and said breezy conditions will keep overnight lows mild, mainly in the 30s across the plains, and in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain. Another weak embedded wave within the westerly flow aloft and increased available moisture will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms area wide tomorrow afternoon, with the best coverage over and near the southern mountains. Temperatures cool slightly with highs mainly in the 60s across the plains, and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Increasing west to northwest flow aloft remains progged on Wednesday, as a stronger upper trough translates across the Northern Tier. Increasing flow and drier conditions will lead to increasing fire danger once again, especially for the interior valleys and I-25 Corridor. However, there is not enough confidence in current wind forecast to support a Fire Weather Watch at this time. At any rate, temperatures look to warm back to well above seasonal levels in the 70s to mid 80s across the plains, with 50s and 60s expected across the higher terrain. However, there is some model indication of a quicker passing system and front, which could bring cooler temperatures to plains than currently forecast. There still looks to be enough residual moisture to support a few isolated based showers over and near the higher terrain on Wednesday.

Current model data does indicate upper level ridging building back across the region on Thursday, with lee troughing keeping warm temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s across the plains, with 50s and 60s in place for the higher terrain. There could once again be some critical fire weather conditions across the interior valleys, along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region on Thursday, but will need to see how this pattern develops.

For Friday into the weekend, models continue to indicate increasing available moisture within developing south to southwest flow aloft across the region, as an upper low across the West Coast slowly lifting out across the Desert SW and Great Basin. With poor model handling of split flow and cutoff patterns, the timing and location of this system remains in question. However, with increasing available moisture, will likely see increasing coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms late in the work week which will continue through the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 531 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. For KCOS and KPUB, gusty winds are expected through the evening hours today as a surface cyclone develops across the plains and pushes east. Winds are expected to lessen overnight, and remain around and less then 10 knots for the remainder of this TAF period. For KALS, gusty winds will lessen heading into the evening hours. With that all said, showers and weak thunderstorms may bring gusty outflow winds and periods of rain to the TAF sites tomorrow afternoon, along with this evening for KALS. Outside of all of that, dry conditions and mid to high level clouds will prevail.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ237.