textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the mountains on Wednesday, with gusty winds over 50 mph and occasional cloud- to-ground lightning the main storm threats

- Drier with elevated fire danger over much of the area on Thursday

- Weak cold front will bring back isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday, then heat and increasing fire danger return over the weekend with isolated thunderstorms continuing - Stronger cold front and an upturn in shower/thunderstorm chances in store for late Sunday into Monday, though heaviest rainfall may stay north of the area

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Weak cold front has moved through the plains today, knocking just a couple degf off of high temps while bringing back some very shallow moisture to areas along/east of the mountains. Starting to see some moderate cumulus build over the Pikes Peak region at mid-afternoon where minor instability (CAPE 100-300 J/KG) has developed, and won't be too surprised to see some windy sprinkles/virga over Teller County and along the Palmer Divide late this afternoon/early this evening, before any activity quickly ends toward sunset. Clear and cool overnight with light winds initially, before s-se flow increases on the plains and over the Palmer Divide around sunrise. On Wednesday, upper ridge shifts into the plains with weak s/w trough and pocket of mid-level moisture rotating across CO during the afternoon and evening. As a result, should see an upturn in convection over mainly the high terrain, though storm coverage will be limited by rather dry low levels. Main threat from storms Wed will be gusty winds over 50 mph given expected high storm bases and dCAPE approaching 1000 J/KG, with occasional cloud-to-ground lightning potentially starting fires a concern as well. Better instability exists on the plains where CAPE is in the 500-1000 J/KG range, though soundings have a good deal of CIN, which will likely limit most storm activity. With better mixing and a small rise in mid-level temps, expect maxes to climb a few degf, with some 90f readings on the plains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Could see a lingering shower/sprinkle along the Continental Divide Wed night, then drier air spreads across much of the area on Thu behind departing wave. While fire danger will increase to elevated levels across much of the region by Thu afternoon, mid level winds weaken through the day, suggesting critical potential will likely be limited and spotty, and thus no fire weather highlight has been issued yet. Areas to watch for increased fire danger/potential Red Flag conditions would be mainly the Upper Arkansas Valley and Fremont Counties, where gap flow may enhance wind speeds somewhat. Max temps will get a downslope boost along and east of the mountains, with readings deep into the 90s over most of the eastern plains. By late Thu afternoon into the evening, a few models show weak cold front already dropping south through the plains, with winds turning ely and low level moisture returning behind it. This may be enough to spark a shower/storm along the Palmer Divide, though models in general are rather sparse with their convection, so will only throw in a very narrow sliver of pops along the Divide for now.

Slightly cooler and generally dry on Fri, and while a few deterministic models produce scattered showers/storms Fri afternoon/evening, moisture/instability look shallow/weak, and will lean toward the drier ensemble/blended guidance solutions for now. Warmer Sat, with increasing swly flow aloft bringing back some dry air and elevated fire weather conditions to the mountains by late day. Over the ern mountains and on the plains, some guidance suggests enough low level moisture (Dewpoints 40-50f) returns to generate scattered convection in the afternoon/evening, with the best chance along and north of the Palmer Divide, where flow aloft and upper forcing appear to be a bit stronger. Upper trough digs into the wrn U.S. Sun/Mon, with strong sw flow across Colorado. In general, pattern would appear to favor warm/dry/windy conditions on Sunday with increased fire danger, then cooler, potentially wetter weather Mon, though timing issues remain to be worked out on how quick the trough and associated cold front come through CO.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds across the area will weaken overnight, with slowly increasing clouds between now and midday tomorrow. By afternoon, winds will be a bit more breezy, gusty to around 20 knots at KALS and KCOS, from the southwest and southeast, respectively. KPUB will also see breezy SE winds, though a bit less gusty. Some showers may move off the mountains between 20Z-00Z tomorrow afternoon, but currently confidence in coverage is too low to include in this round of TAFs. Best chances would be at KCOS, followed by KPUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.