textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry the rest of today, with isolated showers near the east mountains.

- Cooler and wetter Wednesday, with possible flash flood risk for the Aspen Acres burn scar. Stronger storms possible over the plains.

- Warming trend into this weekend, with daily showers and storms over the mountains.

- Hints at a cooler and wetter pattern next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 109 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Warm and mostly dry the rest of today. What storms do manage to form will likely stay confined to the Palmer Divide, with impacts being limited to virga, gusty outflow, and possibly some light rain. Later tonight, a cold front will move in from the north, likely between 7- 10pm. This will bring in more moist air, some gusty winds, and give us a better setup for convection tomorrow.

Wednesday...

Much more active on Wednesday, thanks to the front. Moist, southeast upslope will be present throughout the day over the plains, with brisk northwest flow aloft. Storms are expected to fire over the mountains by early-mid afternoon, pushing east-southeast through the rest of the day and into Weds Night. Flash flooding potential will increase again, with heavy rainfall possible over the Aspen Acres burn scar along with other vulnerable areas. Flood Watch is in effect, 1pm to 8pm. Later in the day, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as well over the eastern plains, with things intensifying closer to our eastern borders. Strong outflow winds and severe hail will be possible with these storms alongside heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 109 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Moving towards the end of the work week, high pressure builds in over the Four Corners, slowly pushing east into this weekend. Temperatures will warm as mid-level moisture remains, giving us daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Given the lack of forcing out east, most convection will remain tied to the mountains. Flash flooding will continue to be a primary concern over burn scars and other vulnerable areas, due to the potential for heavy rainfall several days in a row. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to warm, reaching mid-high 80s over the interior valleys and 90s to low- 100s over the eastern plains.

By next week, the monsoon plume is expected to move back into our area, giving us a more favorable pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Will have to see how models handle the evolution of the pattern over the rest of this week, but in general conditions are looking wetter and a good few degrees cooler.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

For KCOS, kept in a PROB30 for passing showers this evening, 00-03Z as a cold front moves in. Expecting gusty winds, 25-30 knots, along and just behind the front into early Weds morning.

Kept a PROB30 at KPUB for the front, though any shower coverage will be much more isolated. Still expecting gusts to 30 knots behind the front lasting into early Weds morning.

For KALS, VFR conditions and light winds through 24 hours. There is a low end chance for isolated showers to move through the valley around 00Z as well, so added in a PROB30, though the main concern will be outflow winds.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ079-080-086.