textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical to extreme fire danger for most areas today and across the San Luis Valley on Sunday.

- Strong/Damaging winds over the Higher terrain Saturday evening spreading across the Plains early Sunday behind a strong cold front.

- Wind driven snow across the central mountains Saturday evening, and possibly across the Pikes Peak region early Sunday morning.

- Very warm potentially record breaking temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Latest water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate westerly flow aloft across the region early this morning, with stronger flow aloft across the Intermountain West and Pac NW Coast as an embedded short wave is translating through at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating mid and upper level moisture streaming out ahead of said wave at this time.

Latest model data continues to indicate increasing west to northwest flow aloft through the day today, with strong northwest flow aloft across the region tonight into the day Sunday, as said embedded wave translates east into the the High Plains by Sunday afternoon.

With that said, will continue to see increasing winds across the higher terrain through the morning, with winds mixing down across the lower elevations through the late morning and afternoon. Westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 50 to 60 mph remain expected across the area this afternoon, strongest over and near the higher terrain. The strong downslope will support very warm temperatures in the 70s to low 80s across plains, with 50s and 60s expected across the higher terrain. This, combined with low humidity levels and dry antecedent conditions, will bring critical to extreme fire weather conditions to most of south central and southeast Colorado today, with Red Flag Warnings in tact from 11 am through 10 pm Saturday. Latest data does indicate the highest fire danger across the mid Arkansas River valley late this afternoon, though confidence in widespread extreme conditions is not high enough to upgrade to a PDS Red Flag Warning at this time. Current records for today are 67F in Alamosa in 2017, 75F in Colorado Springs in 1935 and 83F in Pueblo in 2003.

For tonight into early Sunday morning, with strongest winds aloft will translate across south central and southeast Colorado, with 60 to 80 mph winds possible across the higher terrain overnight. We have upgraded the high wind watch to a high wind warning for the central mtns into the southeast mountains, with the strongest winds expected after 06Z which will continue through mid Sunday morning before tapering off into the afternoon. Will need to watch for possible addition of the higher terrain of the La Garita mtns, as latest data supports the axis of strongest winds across this area later Sunday morning. We have also added a winter weather advisory across the central mtns, generally north of Cottonwood Pass, where 2 to 5 inches of wind driven snow will be possible.

Further east, will also need to watch the potential for a brief mountain wave across the Pikes Peak region from around 02Z-06Z Sunday, before forward shear increases enough to shuts off the wave potential. Passing system sends a strong cold front across eastern Colorado early Sunday morning, with current High Wind Watch remaining in place across the plains. Latest data continues to support strong northerly winds of 40 to 60 mph developing behind the front, and will likely need to upgrade to a high wind warning with the next package. Models also continue to support a period of wind driven snow developing behind the front early Sunday morning, especially in the Pikes Peak/Palmer Dvd region, with strong fgen and upslope. Latest model data is also trending cooler on Sunday, especially across the plains, with strong caa keeping highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Further west, much drier air filters into the region, and with continued gusty winds, we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the San Luis Valley from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strong northerly flow aloft Sunday night weakens through the day Monday, with a reprieve of fire weather conditions expected. There may still be spotty critical fire weather conditions across the San Luis Valley, as temperatures warm to around seasonal levels into the 50s across the lower elevations, with 30s and 40s expected across the higher terrain. There also could be a few showers across the central mtns, as the northwest flow helps squeeze out lingering moisture.

For Tuesday onward, upper level ridging looks to rebuild across the region, bringing the potential for spotty critical fire weather conditions to portions of south central and southeast Colorado, as well as very warm and possibly record breaking temperatures from the middle to end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Skies at all three terminals will stay VFR with variable high cloudiness at times.

KCOS and KPUB...

Enhanced westerly winds will continue at KPUB overnight decoupling at times leading to increased probabilities of low level wind shear. Have carried this from 08z through 12z for now but it could start as early as 07z if surface winds decrease a little sooner. Odds of LLWS at KCOS look lower overnight as winds aloft are not quite as strong, and surface winds may stay strong enough to mitigate the risk. Winds will swing around from the east so southeast for a brief time at both KCOS and KPUB Saturday morning though winds aloft will be lighter for a time. Southwest to westerly winds spread into both terminals again after 18z with gusts up to 45 kts possible during the late afternoon and evening, especially at KCOS. A cold front will shift winds out of the north after 06z with gusts to around 50 kts possible just beyond the 24 hour TAF valid period.

KALS...

KALS will maintain light winds overnight with winds increasing from the west during the afternoon. Winds will stay elevated through the night with a wind shift from the northwest just beyond the 24 hour TAF valid period. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT Sunday for COZ060-061-072>075-087. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ224. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for COZ084>086-088-089-093>099.