textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers spreads across south central and southeast Colorado tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- High impact system on track to bring periods of heavy rain, the potential for flash flooding, strong winds, and high mountain snow across southern Colorado Tuesday night through Thursday,

- Warmer and Drier weather for Friday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, as an upper trough continues to dig across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating Hurricane Polo spinning off the central California Baja coast, with abundant subtropical moisture continuing to spread across Old Mexico into the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies at this time.

Current forecast remains on track through the day Tuesday, as an ejecting short wave ahead of the West Coast/Great Basin system spreads scattered to numerous showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, across south central and southeast Colorado tonight. Showers and storms diminish from west to east through the day Tuesday, bringing a brief lull in precipitation, as we wait for a stronger system developing across the Desert Southwest. With the abundant moisture in place, PWATs running 150 to 200 percent of normal, locally heavy rainfall is expected, leading to possible flash flooding, especially across the eastern San Juan mountains, with the enhanced southwest orographics aiding in precipitation. Cloudy and cool conditions are expected with the precipitation through the day, with the potential for a few inches of snow across the highest peaks, generally above 12,000 feet.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

While models continue to differ on the details, specifically on the ingestion of extra-tropical system Polo, and its movement northward across the southern Rockies into southeast Colorado, there is enough agreement in ensemble data to support a high impact system affecting southern Colorado through Thursday.

Current forecast supports moist south to southwest flow aloft across the region Tuesday night, with increasing south to southeast flow through the day Wednesday, as a strengthening upper low moves into northwest New Mexico. This will bring widespread light to moderate rain across southern Colorado Tuesday night with moderate to heavy deformation banded precipitation spreading across south central and southeast Colorado through the day Wednesday and Wednesday night, as the upper low continues across northern New Mexico. Widespread precipitation then winds down northwest to southeast through the day Thursday, as the deformation band lifts north and east into the Central High Plains. The movement of this system, and its developing surface low reflection, will also develop gusty northerly gradient winds of 20 to 40 mph, with locally stronger gusts across eastern Colorado later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, which could bring enhanced orographic precipitation to the Palmer Divide and Pikes Peak region, as well as the southern Sangres and Raton Mesa. With that said, we have expanded flash flood watches in coverage and time across most of south central and southeast Colorado, with current forecast of 2 to 4 inches of liquid qpf, greatest across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains over the 3 day period. For the flash flooding threat, the lack of instability and its associated enhancement on precipitation rates, is a concern, however, the shear amount of moisture (PWATs progged up to 250 percent of normal), dynamics, upslope and warm rain processes look to support locally heavy rain and rates up to inch or more inch an hour at times. This combined, with the long duration and expected increasing saturated soils, especially across the southeast plains, which have already seen 2 to 4 inches of rain this month, will support flash flooding, along with quickly rising flows in streams and rivers across the area. The Aspen Acres fire area will also be susceptible to flash flooding and mud flows, with the potential for fallen trees, as the gusty northerly winds develop later Wednesday. Latest model data also supports several inches of higher elevation (at or above 12,000 feet) through Thursday.

We will continue to monitor the track of this developing storm system, with potentially higher impacts, if it tracks more north than currently forecast, as well as lesser possible impacts, if it goes further south. Either way, people should remain weather aware through Thursday, and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, especially those in flood prone areas.

By Friday and into the weekend, warm and drier air within more westerly flow works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to a slow warming and drying trend, as there may be enough residual moisture to support isolated afternoon convection over the higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A highly dynamic storm pattern will start to push across the region. This will bring, one, significant cloud cover to the region. As cloud cover progressively increases and lowers, MVFR to IFR ceiling heights are expected at all three TAFs and through at least tomorrow. Secondly, widespread rain showers are anticipated, with impacts also at all three TAF sites. These rain showers are likely to bring periods of reduced visibility, with at least a drop to MVFR visibility restrictions expected. Along with that, isolated instances of lightning and thunder will be possible, though confidence is low, less than 20%, in this. Otherwise, the strongest winds are expected early in the TAF period this afternoon, with gusty winds up to around 20 knots anticipated, especially for KALS and KCOS. Winds are expected to lessen heading into the evening, and remain at or less than 10 knots through the remainder of this TAF period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for COZ067-068. Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ069>071. Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for COZ072>075-077>080-083-086>089-093>099. Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for COZ076-081-082-084-085.