textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly east of I-25. If a cell does develop over the Aspen Acres burn scar, flash flooding may be possible, but confidence in this is low at this time.

- Flash flooding may be possible for area burn scars on Friday, along with low end severe weather.

- Drier, hot conditions for the weekend into early next week, then a return of moisture and flash flood potential for mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows upper level high pressure spinning across New Mexico, with an upper wave dropping south across Eastern Colorado. This has led to an areas of showers and thunderstorms tracking east across the Plains, which should exit into Kansas through 4 AM. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will accompany stronger storms. Temperatures remain mild, mainly in the 60s across the Plains, and will hold steady through sunrise, as dewpoints remain elevated.

Today and tonight...upper level high pressure will build into the Four Corners region this afternoon, with ridging stretching north into Montana. Another embedded wave in northwesterly flow will track southeast across northern Colorado and into the Plains by the afternoon. This will lead to shower and thunderstorm activity for this afternoon and evening across the Plains.

For the Aspen Acres burn scar...confidence in widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms is low. That being said, PWAT values remain elevated near an inch, and moisture remains pooled along the lee slopes of the Wet Mountains. The main question is forcing, with the embedded wave tracking a bit further east on the Plains. Most CAM guidance has cells developing by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the burn scar, but cells don't pick up steam until they are further east on the Plains. Given the moisture parameters, if a cell does develop a bit west on the burn scar, it does have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, and flash flooding may be possible. Opted to not issue a Flash Flood Watch with this package given the lower confidence, but did want to mention the risk if a cell does pop this afternoon.

For the Plains...showers and thunderstorms look to develop by mid afternoon generally east of I-25, and coverage does not look overly widespread. Cells that do form will have plenty of moisture to work with and will be efficient precipitation producers. Lack of shear and modest instability should keep thunderstorms from reaching severe limits. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds near 50 mph and hail to half an inch may accompany stronger cells. Model guidance is consistent with tracking this activity east into Kansas through the overnight hours.

Temperatures today will be hot, with highs climbing back into the mid 90s to lower 100s across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley pushes 90.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Not much change to the forecast thinking for the extended period. The upper high retrogrades west, while an upper longwave trough moves across the northern states by early next week.

Friday...the upper high begins to shift west across the Intermountain West towards the Great Basin. This will shift the upper pattern, putting northerly flow across Eastern Colorado. An embedded wave is forecast to drop south by the afternoon, with another round of thunderstorms for the area.

Low level surface flow on Friday will turn east to southeasterly helping keep moisture pooled across the Plains. Shear increases by the afternoon, and around 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE are expected along the Eastern Mountains into the I-25 corridor. Thunderstorms look to fire off by early afternoon across Eastern Mountains. PWAT values remain high, and this will keep precipitation efficiency high as well. The main concern for Friday will be the north to south cell movement, with multiple thunderstorms dropping south over the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25 corridor. Flash flooding on Aspen Acres burn scar will once again be possible, and a Flash Flood Watch may be needed. Given the increased shear and modest instability, a few cells could become strong to severe through the afternoon and evening, with hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. Heavy rainfall is expected with thunderstorms. This activity will move southeast off the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor through the evening, clearing into New Mexico overnight.

Saturday through Monday...the upper high is forecast to stretch from southern California, northeast into North Dakota ahead of an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. Drier air will work into the region, with PWAT values falling to well under an inch through the weekend into Monday. With the upper ridge axis moving overhead, temperatures will warm, with upper 90s to lower 100s across the Plains, especially Sunday and Monday. Lack of embedded energy under the upper ridge should keep shower and thunderstorm activity to a minimum. Saturday may see the greatest coverage, with isolated to scattered activity across the higher terrain, with Sunday and Monday likely being mostly dry.

Tuesday into Thursday...the upper trough is forecast to move out of the Pacific Northwest and across the Northern Plains. A cold front arrives on Tuesday morning, with low level flow easterly, and advecting moisture back west across the Plains. Multiple shortwave troughs in the westerly flow across Colorado will likely lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms for mid week, with a return of flash flood potential for the area burn scars.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Conditions will remain VFR over the 24 hour period, though afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible. These could bring locally heavy rainfall and brief low end VFR cigs and MVFR vis should a stronger storm impact the terminals. Gusty erratic outflow winds will be possible with these as well. Evening winds will be dominated by remnant thunderstorm outflows before decreasing. A cold front will bring some gusty north winds into KCOS around 09z and into KPUB around 10 or 11z Friday morning. Winds will shift around from the east to southeast in the afternoon bringing another uptick in thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.