textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again today, with flash flood threat continuing over the Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

- Severe storm threat increases on the plains today, especially east of I-25 this evening.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances persist on Thursday, with perhaps a brief downturn in activity Friday, before moisture returns and storm activity increases over the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Shower activity exiting the area into KS early this morning, with generally clearing skies and light winds expected through sunrise, especially over the mountains. Potential for low clouds on the plains this morning seems to have lessened, as models and current obs don't show much evidence of increasing easterly flow through 12z, though some patchy/brief stratus may still be possible over areas along and south of the Arkansas River which received heavier rainfall yesterday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again develop this afternoon over the mountains, spreading eastward across lower elevations from late in the afternoon into the evening. Pretty wide envelope of convective location/strength/coverage among various CAMs and most larger scale models, as at least a few solutions (NAM/RAP) show only isolated storms over the eastern slopes and I-25 corridor, while other solutions (GFS/HRRR) show more extensive storm coverage. In general, most model solutions have less coverage and weaker storms over the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor, as instability stays under 1000 J/KG in this area. Still expect enough storm strength and coverage for a flash flood risk over the Aspen Acres Burn Scar, while severe risk along the I-25 corridor looks less certain, given potential for only modest CAPE. Many models then show a cluster of strong/severe storms diving southeast across the plains toward sunset, with a slight risk for areas east of I-25 looking justified at this point, as CAPE over the plains will be in the 1-2k J/KG range and 0-6km shear increases to over 30 kts. Max temps today will run slightly cooler than the past few days, with most locations staying below 90f for a change.

Somewhat of a similar set-up for Thu, though slightly warmer temps may boost instability a bit over the mountains, while storm threat on the plains lessens as moisture decreases here and instability falls off. Models keep most convection along and west of I-25 Thu afternoon, with a few storms drifting across the plains in the evening. Heavy rainfall again the threat, especially over burn scars.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Upper ridge amplifies over the area on Friday, with a trend toward hotter and drier conditions developing. Will still be enough moisture around for isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms, though overall Fri may end up being the driest day we've seen over the past week. Upper ridge then slips eastward on Sat, with increasing swly flow across srn CO. Pattern will keep hot temperatures going another day, with a few 100f readings returning to the plains. Mid level moisture also increases, with scattered to numerous shower/storms over the mountains Sat afternoon, especially back toward the Continental Divide, while the plains see isolated activity moving off the mountains late in the day. Upper trough moves through the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains on Sun, with sw flow across CO bringing back deepening moisture, especially along the Continental Divide. Expect widespread showers/storms over the mountains Sun, with again less activity over the plains. Cold front then pushes through late Sun into Mon, while sw flow aloft persists ahead of Pacific Coast upper trough. Expect an upturn in convection all areas as a result, with renewed low level moisture on the plains and upper level jet overhead. After peaking on Sat, max temps will drift downward Sun-Tue, as cooler air filters into the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Convection will develop across the higher terrain by 18z today, affecting TAF sites by mid-afternoon. Therefore, introduced PROB30 wording for all three sites by 21z-23z and lasting through 03z for variable wind gusts to 30-35 kts and -TSRA. Hail may affect KCOS and KPUB as well. Further east across the eastern plains, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon and evening, with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and hail 1-2 inches in diameter. Finally, some patchy fog may affect KCOS and KPUB after 09z, but confidence was too low to include in TAFs at this time.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.