textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and warm on Tuesday across the region.

- Very dangerous fire weather conditions arrive on Wednesday with very strong winds and very low humidity values. These conditions will prevail well into the overnight hours.

- Fire weather conditions continue across the region on Thursday with gusty winds and low humidity values.

- Active weather pattern Friday into early next week with increased chances for precipitation across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across southern Colorado with the exception of over the Mountains where cumulus and a few light rain or snow showers have developed. Winds are light across much of the region with the exception of out near the Kansas border where gusty winds 30 to 35 mph have combined with very low humidity values to produce Red Flag conditions. Overall, temperatures are pleasant, with 60s across the San Luis Valley, and 70s to lower 80s across the Plains.

Rest of today through Tuesday...upper level high pressure will build across Colorado through tonight, and shift eastward towards western Kansas Tuesday afternoon. For this afternoon, Red Flag conditions will continue over Prowers and Baca Counties, before winds subside early this evening. As for precipitation, a few rain or snow showers may be possible across the San Juan Range this afternoon into the evening, with no accumulations expected. Any showers that do pop up, should dissipate after sunset, with dry conditions prevailing overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures tonight will fall off into the 20s for the San Luis Valley, while the Plains see 30s and 40s.

The upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward into Kansas during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be warm, with 70s to 80s across the lower elevations. Weak energy moving through the upper ridge may allow for isolated showers across the higher terrain, with snow confined to above 10 kft with no accumulations expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Models in agreement with the evolution of the upper pattern, with differences late in the week, and through the weekend. Fire weather will be the main concern mid week, with active weather and timing detail issues Friday into early next week.

Wednesday and Thursday...models have come into line with an upper trough that is forecast to track from Utah, northeast into Nebraska for mid week. The main concerns with this upper trough will be very dangerous fire weather conditions, especially on Wednesday. Given the upper system track to our north, very strong winds in the base will spread across Colorado Wednesday afternoon and prevail well into the overnight hours. Model guidance is developing 50+ kt 700 mb flow by 00z Thurs as the trough axis passes north. Very dry air, with humidity values near 5 percent are forecast across much of the region. Given the strong winds, southwesterly gusting 50 to 60 mph, and the very low humidity values, a Red Flag Warning is in effect, from 10 AM through midnight Wednesday. In addition, widespread areas of blowing dust may be possible across the San Luis Valley and across the eastern Plains. For areas over the San Luis Valley, high wind highlights may be needed if model guidance continues ot hint at 60 mph winds. Any outdoor burning should be postponed until another day! As a note, there is a very low potential of a thunderstorm developing near the Kansas border, but current guidance has the dryline just to our east, with our Plains remaining dry.

A westerly frontal boundary will move across the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with continued strong winds across Colorado, as the upper wave lifts into Nebraska. Very dry air will remain in place across the region, with humidity values under 10 percent. Westerly winds will continue, shifting northwesterly by late afternoon to Thursday evening. Gusts in excess of 40 mph may be possible. Given the continued dangerous fire weather conditions, issued a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday for the San Luis Valley, east across the Plains. Thursday overall looks dry, with a few snow showers possible over the Central Mountains. Its not until the late afternoon into the evening, when the next frontal surge arrives from the north, that a few showers will be possible along the Eastern Mountains, into the Plains, mainly north of Highway 50.

After warm temperatures on Wednesday, with widespread 80s to lower 90s, temperatures on Thursday will cool off into the upper 60s to 70s.

Friday through Monday...the upper pattern becomes much more active beginning Friday and prevailing into early next week. An upper low is forecast to sit across southern Canada, with multiple waves dropping south out of the Pacific Northwest, and combining with moisture from southern California. Timing and track of each individual wave is uncertain at this time, but ensemble guidance has been consistently showing periods of precipitation through the weekend into Monday. Temperatures will also be cooler, with upper 50s to upper 60s during this period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light, around and less than 10 knots, through the majority of this TAF period for all three TAF sites. Winds are expected to increase tomorrow afternoon though as diurnal mixing develops, with gusts to around 20 knots possible, especially for KCOS. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of mid to high level clouds continue.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ220>222-224>237. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ221-222-224>237. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ236-237.