textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory for eastern Fremont, El Paso, and Pueblo through 7 pm, with scattered mainly high based convection through the evening.

- A tad cooler Wednesday, with increasing available "monsoon" moisture bringing increased coverage of thunderstorms and wetting rains especially over and near the higher terrain.

- Cooling trend to at and slightly below seasonal temperatures into the weekend, along with widespread coverage of daily storms leading to increasing flash flooding concerns.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

With peak daytime heating past, and outflow cooled air in place across Pueblo and El Paso Counties, and eastern Fremont County, the Heat Advisory that was in place for these areas has been allowed to expire.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has the center of a large upper high near the Four Corners region keeping modest westerly steering flow in place across the Central Rockies. GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery has PWATS between 90-110 percent of normal across the region, with an increased subtropical moisture plume stretching from Old Mexico into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin at this time. Temperatures have warmed into the 90s across the plains as of noon, with 60s, 70s and 80s being realized across the higher terrain, where a few showers and a storm have already developed.

For the rest of today and into tonight, model soundings continue to indicate high based convection, especially across the adjacent plains, where dew pts have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with more wetting rains remaining possible over the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd. This supports the potential for gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph with storms, especially across the plains, where DCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg remains progged through the afternoon. We have also added slight pops across the far southeast plains, with the potential for convection developing along an evident thermal trough through the late afternoon and early evening. Convection winds down through the evening, however, could continue to see showers into the overnight hours along and west of the Contdvd, as the abundant atmospheric moisture across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin continues into western Colorado.

The upper high continues to slide south and east into the Southern Rockies on Wednesday, leading to more available moisture working into the region within more west to southwest flow aloft. The increased moisture, working with strong summer solar heating, leads to scattered to numerous showers and storms developing across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon, with storms spreading east northeast across the high mountain valleys and adjacent plains through the afternoon and evening hours. Storms, especially across the higher terrain, to be more efficient rainmakers, leading to the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding, however, there will be enough steering flow to keep storms moving, and will not issue any flash flood products at this time. Slight cooling aloft, from west to east, and increased coverage of convection will lead to temperatures cooler than the past several days, though will still warm into the lower 100s across the far southeast plains on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Latest model data continues to support a cooling and wetting trend across all of south central and southeast Colorado through the end of week and into the weekend, as the upper high slides into Southern High Plains, as an upper trough develops across the West Coast. This set up is a classic monsoonal pattern for Colorado, with abundant moisture embedded within modest southwest flow aloft through the weekend. The available moisture, combined with upslope flow across the plains behind a passing front across the plains on Thursday, will bring temperatures back down to at and even slightly below seasonal levels through the weekend, with expected daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. We will likely need to issue flash flood watches for area burn scars for Thursday, and additional flood products for burn scars and other areas into the weekend, depending on coverage of heavy rain and how saturated soils may become. Those living in and near the recent burn areas should remain weather through the weekend.

Into early next week, models support the upper high building back across the Southern Rockies, leading to slight warming within more westerly flow across the region. However, models continue to support ample moisture within the westerly flow, for continued good coverage of daily showers and storms areawide into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be the main focus through early to mid evening, especially across COS and PUB. While latest radar imagery has shown most of the development stay away from the terminals, a low chance remains. Given recent trends, have maintained the prob30 for thunder very early in the period. Conditions look to remain dry later this evening into much of Wednesday, with any precip development not approaching any of the terminals until very late in the period. VFR conditions are anticipated, outside of any stray thunderstorm early this evening.

The winds early this evening will be impacted by several outflow boundaries, then return to more light and diurnally driven conditions. This trend looks to continue for much of Wednesday, however, should see increased chances for more erratic winds late in the period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.