textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous storms expected TODAY and TOMORROW over the region; Storms capable of heavy rain

- A few severe storms today, Flash flooding possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

As of early afternoon, numerous storms already noted over the CONTDVD region with scattered storms along the S mtns and Pikes Peak region. 50+ dbz cores already noted in several storms. Dewpts higher all areas with near 70 dwpts along US50 corridor over the plains east of KPUB. Observed PWATs over the plains above 150 to 200% of normal with 100-150% over interior mtns.

Main concern today will obviously be flash flooding over the burn scars, especially the Aspen Acres burn area. Photos starting to show mudflows in the central part of the AA burn scar and if we get a strong storm, the potential for mud flows/flash flooding will be high.

Additionally, any storm which moves slow/trains will have the potential to produce flash flooding today

Decent cape of 1000-1500 and some very modest shear will allow for a few lower end severe storms and a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the plains generally along and north of US50.

The activity will become more organized over as the day progresses and a line of storm should be note over the I-25 corridor by late afternoon, moving slowly east as the evening progresses. The activity should reach the KS border AOA midnight. SOme storms may linger through the early AM hours of Wednesday, especially along the CO/NM border.

For tomorrow, I anticipate a repeat performance of today as plenty of moisture will be through the column as the monsoon plume remains over the region and weak short waves will be moving over the mid level ridge over the region. Flash flooding may be more of a concern over a larger part of the region as todays precip will likely start to saturate the soils over the region, and more heavy rain coming down over a brief period of time could cause issues, especially over the burn scars and urban areas. With less shear and CAPE severe threat will be less.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For Thursday, anticipate it will be somewhat drier over the region and storms this day will be more confined to the higher terrain, with more isolated activity plains. Additionally, temps will start to be on the increase once again.

Friday, a much more pronounced short wave will be moving down in the NW flow aloft and winds throughout the column will be rather strong as a jet streak will clearly be over the region. The mtns appear drier this day so less convection over the higher terrain, but we may see some organized severe storms over the eastern plains on this day.

Weekend into Monday...Hot. Any storms will be isolated and mainly confined to the mtns.

Tuesday we may see cooler weather move in with a better chance of precip. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 552 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: MVFR conditions may take place in thunderstorms due to reduced visibility, but outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected for all three sites. Showers and storms are expected to end during the late evening to early overnight hours. With that said, another round of heavy monsoon thunderstorms is expected tomorrow afternoon, especially at KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist much of this TAF period, with light winds outside of thunderstorms.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ079-080-086.