textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Potent relatively quick moving system will bring a period of higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain to the region today and this evening

- Precip could be rather heavy for an hour or two as as the band goes by, and it may snow quite heavily during this time over the higher terrain. Some accumulations likely northern El Paso county.

- Warmer and Drier Monday

- Cooler and potentially unsettled Tuesday into Wednesday

- Dry and seasonable Thanksgiving into Friday, then possibly QUITE unsettled next weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Potent storm will roll over the region today into this evening. This closed low was noted over Yuma AZ early this morning, and this system will roll over the this evening. This system is quite dynamic and simulations show that it may intensify as it pushes off the mtns later this afternoon. Precip with this system is NOT widespread, and appears to be more banded in nature. but when these bands push across, the precip may be on the heavier side. Over the higher terrain where it is cold enough to snow, the snow will likely be rather heavy for an hour or two, and a quick 2-3" accumulations may occur.

My biggest concern with this weather system is later today into this evening over the Pikes Peak region, especially northern El Paso county (Greater Monument/Black Forest region). As this storm moves northeast across the state, I mentioned above that it will likely intensify and pivot over the Pikes Peak region (the pivoting motion is best seen in looping the HRRR qpf fields). This pivot motion will allow for an extended period of precip to occur over the Pikes Peak area. Additionally, this location will be in the coldest part of the storm, and the heaviest precip will occur around/after sunset. For this reason I cannot rule out some heavier snow occurring over the greater Monument/Black Forest region during this time. Soundings over the Monument area are completely isothermally saturated from 300 mb to the surface. Reviewing the HREF DESI guidance, the worst case scenario is showing 3-4" for this region. For now, I have Snow explicitly mentioned in the grids with 1-2" of accumulation occurring, As shown with the DESI guidance, there is a non-zero threat that there may be more than 1-2" occuring over Monument Hill/Black Forest this evening.

As for the rest of the area, Precip should move into the SW mtns by mid morning, over a good part of the region south of US50 by noontime, and then move over the plains this afternoon. Some relatively heavy banding of precip is shown in the guidance. the storm then pivots and intensifies over the Pikes Peak region, and then moves out to the northeast later this evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

For Monday, weak ridging develops and temps will warm up into the 50s to around 60 plains with mid 40s valleys. Overall, not too bad of a day.

For TUE and Wed, another strong short wave with some cold air with it will move east-southeast to our north. This will bring a cold front down with it and much cooler weather will move into the region Tue and Wed. It will be mainly dry, but we will see some on and off snow showers over the central mtns.

For THU and FRI, ridging builds across the region again and it will be seasonable an dry.

Next weekend into the following week looks possibly quite unsettled and turning much colder with some wintry weather finally affecting the region. It is still too early to know what (if any) impacts there will be, but confidence is increasing that, at minimum, it will be getting much colder, and, at worst, possibly quite wintry. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1053 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper low will continue to translate across south central Colorado this morning into the northeast Colorado plains this evening, bringing scattered rain showers to PUB and COS through the afternoon. Brief mVFR cigs and vis can be expected at the terminals early this afternoon, before more widespread rain develops at the terminal late this afternoon and evening. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the evening, with mixed rain and snow not out of the question at COS...though no accumulations are expected at the terminal. Passing system will develop breezy northerly winds through the overnight hours, with precipitation ending and VFR cigs rising through the rest of the taf period. There is a low end chance of seeing fog at the terminals, mainly PUB, if clouds clear fast enough.

MVFR/IFR conditions expected at ALS through the period, with rain and snow showers possible through the afternoon. More widespread snow is expected this evening, with enough precipitation recorded through the day to develop IFR/LIFR cigs and vis in fog overnight. VIS and CIGs improve through the tail end of this taf period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ066-068. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ073-075. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ082.