textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Back into record high temperature territory for Tuesday through Thursday.

- Almost daily Critical Fire Weather conditions possible with spotty conditions for the mtn valleys on Tue, a bit more widespread but still marginal for Wed, then more widespread conditions possible Thursday depending on the timing of a cold front through the plains.

- Cooler Friday with some isolated showers for the mountains, though precipitation amounts look scant.

- Warming back up over the weekend, though showers possible over the mountains Sunday into next weekend with transient southerly moisture fetches ahead of progressive shortwaves.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Upper ridging on Tuesday will bring warmer conditions to southern CO with record high temperatures once again in jeopardy of being set. In fact guidance and even a conservative HREF/NBM blend is forecasting record high temperatures to be broken by around 5 degrees at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Lee troughing will mix down westerly winds aloft to the surface across the mountains/valleys and east facing slopes in the morning. However, winds shift back around from the east in the afternoon and where humidity values are lowest, southern San Luis Valley and southern portions of the I-25 corridor and southeast plains, winds end up weakening in the afternoon. Spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible across central portions of the San Luis Valley, western Huerfano county and spotty areas in Fremont and southern Chaffee County, but overall coverage and duration does not appear great enough to warrant Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, winds decrease in the evening with at least fair humidity recovery for most areas. Did cool off mountain valleys closer to guidance values given relatively clear skies and dry surface dew points. -KT

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record high temperatures have a high chance of being broken again for Wednesday with forecast highs predicted to eclipse old records by 5 to 10 degrees! Upper ridge axis shifts in aloft, but it is a relatively flat upper ridge with some modest westerly flow aloft. Given the warmer temperatures, humidity values will definitely be drier than the previous day, with critically low values expected across the mountains, valleys and most of the southeast plains. Winds will be the more marginal factor, but odds of 25 mph wind gusts or higher range from 50-80% across the mountains and valleys. HREF wind probabilities are considerably lower. Current Fire Weather Watch across the valleys and southeast mountains still looks reasonable in light of the NBM and how dry and receptive to fire vegetation has been, though it does look like a lower end spectrum event as H7 winds struggle to hit 20 kts across much of the area. Would like to see a bit stronger flow aloft, but given the probabilistic data in NBM, will keep the current Fire Weather Watch in tact.

Southern CA upper trough gets picked up by southwest flow aloft and traverses southern CO on Thursday, at the same time as the northern stream upper jet sags southward. This looks like a more widespread critical fire weather day for southern CO though timing of a cold front moving through the southeast plains will be key as to how far north critical fire weather conditions will spread before the humidity increases behind the front. Suspect we will need another round of Fire Weather Watches for the mountains, valleys and plains along/south of highway 50 at a minimum. However would like to see how the timing of the cold front evolves before hoisting headlines just yet. It is a rather tight surface pressure gradient behind the cold front Thursday afternoon and evening with the potential for strong wind gusts over 50 mph as the front moves through. NBM probabilities show 50 to 75% chances of peak gusts over 50 mph across the eastern counties. Will need to monitor this closely. Areas of blowing dust could be a concern as this will be a dry cold front.

Temperatures cool off considerably for Friday with highs on in the 50s. Isolated showers will be possible across the mountains behind the front on Friday, but precipitation amounts will be spotty and light.

Temperatures rebound over the weekend with southwesterly flow increasing again for Sunday into early next week as shortwave energy off the southern CA coast gets picked up by the flow. Fortunately this also taps some moisture at times with daily showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two across the mountains, possibly spreading off into the adjacent plains. We will be flirting with critical fire weather conditions once again but at least there is a signal for precipitation that could offset this probability some. Temperatures will return to above normal with readings back into the 80s across the plains at times, but increased cloud cover may help keep the 90s at bay across the lower elevations, at least in theory. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 458 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS. Winds will be light and diurnally driven at KCOS and KPUB, with gusts to 25kt out of the northwest at KALS. Scattered to broken middle and upper-level clouds are likely through much of the forecast period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record High Temperatures

March 24th... Pueblo: 82 in 2012 Colorado Springs: 74 in 2012 Alamosa: 72 in 2012

March 25th... Pueblo: 81 in 2004 Colorado Springs: 75 in 2012 Alamosa: 73 in 2012

March 26th... Pueblo: 84 in 2022 and 2004 Colorado Springs: 81 in 1971 Alamosa: 73 in 1971

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ221-222-224-225.