textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and windy on Monday. Critical fire weather conditions expected over the southern I-25 corridor.

- Passing system Tue/Wed brings snow to the central mountains and scattered rain showers to lower elevations, precip amounts will be fairly light, under a quarter inch.

- Fire danger increases again Thursday, before a new weather systems brings cooler and potentially wetter weather back to the region Fri/Sat, though track and intensity details are still far from certain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Passing mid to high-level clouds will work to keep things a bit cooler this afternoon, though temperatures across the region are still well above average. Beyond that, as the upper jet continues to lift north, light showers will dissipate over the central mountains and leave the area generally dry. Easterly winds will persist over the plains, with cooler air lingering as well closer to the KS border. Tonight, clouds roll in and out as winds at the lower elevations weaken. Low temperatures will be similar to last night, with 20s-30s over most areas.

For Monday, westerly flow picks up just ahead of an incoming upper low, leading to warmer and drier conditions along with gusty winds. Downsloping westerlies off the terrain will crank high temperatures into the 70s over most of the plains, while the high valleys linger in the mid-60s. When considering winds, will have to keep a close eye on forecast soundings and vertical mixing extent. Surface winds out east should remain out of the east, but some stronger mixing could bring down some westerly gusts. Partial cloud cover may work to mitigate that, though. West of I-25 and up into the higher terrain, breezy west winds will persist through most of the day, increasing chances for critical fire weather conditions in those areas. Area of highest concern is currently over southern I-25, just lee of the Huerfano County gap flow region. The San Luis Valley will also be quite breezy and dry, but RH should be just high enough to avoid the need for any highlights.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

The upper trough and associated low pressure system will swing through CO late Monday night into Tuesday. However, trends in the models have continued nudging the system north, leaving most of the better synoptic forcing north of our area. Late morning into early afternoon, the southeast plains may actually see a few hours of critical fire weather conditions as gusty west winds continue just ahead of the incoming front. Cold arrives on the plains from the north later in the day, bringing in a cooler airmass and the chance for some precip. Current POPs show best chances for moisture over the peaks of the central mountains and parts of the Palmer Divide/Pikes Peak Region. Meanwhile, scattered showers will be possible over southern portions of our CWA, though model trends continue to dry things out. Optimistically, we can expect a quick few inches of snow for the central mountains and the top of Pikes Peak, while anything east sees some scattered rain showers. Any downsloping areas will likely see little to no water hitting the ground, particularly south of Highway 50, though some better convective forcing could briefly override that. High temps will be cooler Tues/Weds, with 50s-60s over most areas below the mountains.

The system is already past by Wednesday morning, with drier and warmer conditions through Thursday. Expect highs to climb back into the 70s over the plains on Thursday, while both days will see chances for more critical fire weather conditions.

Friday and onwards, models continue to resolve a generally unsettled pattern, with a broad signal for a trough to move in from the west. This should bring noticeably cooler temps and better chances for widespread precip, but as of now the evolution of the larger scale pattern is still rather inconsistent between models.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 421 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will be light and diurnally driven during the overnight hours and early tomorrow morning. Surface winds by tomorrow will be influenced by an incoming trough and will become modestly gusty from the south- southwest during the afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for COZ229-230- 233. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for COZ229-230-233.