textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Interior mountain rain chances increasing Monday, and especially Tuesday, Lightning started fires possible mtns.

- Fewer storm chances mid-week, with critical fire weather conditions setting in over the San Luis Valley.

- Forecast becomes tricky late this week and into the weekend, with a messy, challenging pattern. Overall, warm and dry with some mixed in daily showers/storms possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Overall chances for showers and thunderstorms the rest of this afternoon appear somewhat low. Current mesoscale analysis shows a narrow area of CAPE over the far SE plains, with some dewpoints in the 40s over Baca County.

Latest high-res guidance shows a few isolated storms pushing through mid-late afternoon, but overall chances for any stronger to severe storms seems a bit low. Main impact concerns would mainly be some gusty outflow and lightning.

The synoptic pattern remains messy, with a ridge over most of Colorado while an upper low slowly moves onto the CA coast. This leads to a somewhat messy pattern, relatively weak flow aloft, and limited moisture advection.

Monday...

Flow will turn southerly over most of our area, just ahead of an incoming wave and low pressure system approaching the Four Corners. This will give us a mixed bag in regards to active weather. For the mountains, some incoming Pacific moisture will allow for a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. However, while the moisture will be beneficial overall, given how dry it has been, the chance for fire starts will also increase due to increased lightning activity. Even with the precip chances, min RH Monday afternoon generally stays below 30 percent across the mountains, lowest in the San Luis Valley. For the plains, POPs remain low, with only some isolated to scattered chances later in the day. Best chances would be for high-based showers to move off of the southeast mountains during the afternoon-evening, continuing east into the overnight hours. That being said, given how dry things look at the surface, little to no precip would be expected to hit the ground, mainly just resulting in windy virga. Looking at temperatures, Monday will be our hottest day this week, with highs in the 80s to low-90s over the plains, and 70s-80s for the high valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Noticeably cooler on Tuesday, with temps in the 70s-80s over the plains and 60s-70s in the valleys. Upper wave starts to move in from the west, increasing POPs across the higher terrain throughout most of the day. That being said, RH values are still a bit on the dry side, so expecting high-based showers with some virga. Still a chance for lightning strikes, but fire risk is overall a bit lower with a slightly better chance for some wetting rain in the afternoon. Over the plains, best chance for precip will be out along the KS border, where better moisture advection could generate some afternoon thunderstorm activity.

As we move into mid-week, the upper low to our west wraps up and closes off. Initially, flow over our area will be light and relatively dry, limiting the strength of any potential convection Weds-Thurs. Best chances will be over the eastern plains and portions of the southeast mountains, while the rest of the CWA remains mostly dry. This dry air will continue over our area on Thursday, bringing even lower POPs to the entire area. As southerly flow increases Thursday afternoon, critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the San Luis Valley.

Looking later this week and into next weekend, flow increases as the upper low moves closer to our CWA. Though moisture content still appears lacking, some isolated-scattered POPs return to the area as we get some better forcing. Beyond that, model solutions start to diverge on the behavior of the upper level pattern, but in general we can expect more breezy, warm days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 526 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be mainly light through the overnight hours at each station, with northwest winds at both KCOS and KPUB. Southerly and southeasterly winds develop Monday afternoon, with gusts to 25kt or possible at each station. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over and near the mountains tomorrow, with highest chances of storms moving in the vicinity of KALS or KCOS Monday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds to 45 or 50 mph are expected with any storms that develop tomorrow, especially in the San Luis Valley.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.