textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing 2-3 inch hail possible tomorrow evening along the I-25 corridor. - Strong to severe storms possible across the eastern plains Wednesday through Friday.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected west of the I-25 corridor today.

- Critical fire weather condition may return Wednesday, and then again this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Today and Tonight: Tuesday continues the active weather trend, with severe weather for portions of the area, and fire weather fire other portions. Westerly flow will be in place across the region, with an embedded shortwave passing over. Throughout the day, dry conditions are expected to prevail, as modest capping hinders any deep shower or thunderstorm development. With that said though, a dryline will be in place across the eastern plains, and given around 40-50 knots of shear, if a storm were to break through the cap, it would likely become severe, with large hail up to 2 inches and strong winds to 70 mph the most likely hazards. With that said, the evening and early overnight hours bring the period of greatest concern for severe thunderstorms. Model guidance has come into solid agreement about a strong westward surge of moisture of around 60F dewpoints taking place, and slamming into the higher terrain. This strong lift, in combination with MLCAPE of 3500+ J/kg, and around 60 knots of effective shear, will likely lead to a couple of intense supercells along the I-25 corridor, capable of producing 2-3 inch, possibly even larger, hail. Strong to severe storms may then even linger into the overnight hours along and east of the I-25 corridor, with large hail around 1-1.5 inches and damaging winds around 60 mph the primary hazards. Confidence is lower on this later overnight convection however, and will be dependent on how storms, and associated outflows/cold pools, develop during the evening hours. Beyond all of that, critical fire weather conditions will also develop during the afternoon. With increased flow from the shortwave mixing to the surface during the day, wind gusts to around 35 mph are expected west of the I-25 corridor. In addition, humidity values will drop into the single digits across much of the higher terrain and valleys as drier air remains in place here. With the gusty winds and dry conditions, critical fire weather conditions will develop early afternoon, and persist into mid evening, before winds lessen and humidity values start to increase. Otherwise, breezy conditions will be in place for many, with gusts around 25 mph, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will be above seasonal values during the day and overnight hours. For the day, highs will be in the 90s for the plains, upper 80s to low 90s for the valleys, and 60s to 80s for the mountains. As for lows, the plains will be in the 50s to low 60s, the valleys in the 50s to mid 50s, and the mountains in the 30s to 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Wednesday - Friday: For the later half of the week, active weather continues for south central and south eastern Colorado. Westerly flow and embedded shortwaves will remain in place. With heightened flow and shear, along with moisture remaining across the plains, strong to severe storms will be possible each afternoon and evening across the plains, with supercells and organized storm clusters possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards with any organized convection. Otherwise, typical summer showers and thunderstorms are expected across the valleys and mountains, which may produce small hail and gusty outflow winds. Beyond all of that, breezy conditions will be in place each afternoon, especially the San Luis Valley, with partly cloud skies for the region. Looking at temperatures, much of the area will warm to around and slightly below seasonal values, with the warmest conditions across the plains.

Saturday- Monday: For the remainder of the long term period, conditions dry out, with fire weather returning. Confidence is high (60-70%) in drier southwesterly flow developing over the area given good agreement between ensemble model guidance. This pattern will decrease precipitation chances across much of the area. In addition, it will bring stronger winds and drier air to the area. With the increased winds and drier conditions, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to make a return during this period. Outside of that, warm and above seasonal temperatures and mostly clear skies prevail.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

An influx of moist air along the front range has allowed for MVFR- IFR ceilings to develop this morning. These are expected to mix out leading to clear skies. Clear skies will be short lived though as storms are expected to arrive in the afternoon for terminals east of the mtns. These storms could come in two waves and last into the late night 06-07Z or so. Winds could be sporadic with these storms, possibly reaching up to 75mph or so depending on the location of the downdrafts. Ceilings are forecasted to be VFR through the day before a potential decrease in category down to MVFR-IFR late night (10Z +/- 2hr) again as more moist air fills into the region.

KALS is forecasted to be VFR through the day with building gusty easterly winds into the afternoon before calming into the evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222>224. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ220-224.