textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation starts to increase across the region today, with snow for the mountains, valleys, and Palmer Divide regions.

- While some uncertainty still remains, snow expands in coverage tonight and through Friday.

- Drier and warmer conditions return for the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Quick look at 12z data suggests potential for heavy snow across El Paso County has increased, with several CAMs showing amounts greater than 8 inches into COS and over a foot along the Palmer. Will go ahead an upgrade the advisory for srn El Paso to a winter storm warning as a result, and will nudge up snow amounts at least a couple inches from current forecast. Less confidence for snow amounts farther south and east, but at least a few CAMs show snow bands with several inches possible on the plains all the way to La Junta, so will expand winter weather advisory to include all of the plains except for Kiowa County. Pueblo County remains on the gradient between snow bands in many models, so confidence on heaver snow is lower and will maintain winter wx advisory here, but will increase snow amounts a couple inches to account for potential convective snow bursts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Today: Heading into Thursday, an active day of weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. An ejecting shortwave will be racing over the area early in the day and exiting by the end of the day. This feature will bring increased forcing, along with an uptick in moisture. These factors will allow for scattered to widespread precipitation early in the day as the core of the system passes over, with precipitation then persisting along the higher terrain and Palmer by the afternoon. Early in the day, rain and rain/snow mix is expected across the lower elevations of the plains, with snow elsewhere. During the day, as temperatures modestly warm, mostly rain is anticipated for the plains, with snow everywhere else. The heaviest during this period is anticipated to remain along the mountains where persistent orographic forcing will aid in precipitation maintenance, and along the Palmer Divide, where northerly upsloping winds behind a frontal surge will allow for additional aid in precipitation maintenance in this localized area. Snow totals may range from 2-4 inches for the higher terrain, with up to 2 inches of snow along the Palmer Divide, and less everywhere else that sees snow. Beyond all of that, mostly cloudy conditions and breezy winds behind the front are expected for the day. As for temperatures, a cool and near seasonal day is anticipated thanks to the cold front passage and cloud cover, with the plains warming into the 40s, the valleys into the mid 30s to low 40s, and the mountains into the mid 10s to mid 20s.

Tonight - Tomorrow: For Thursday night and Friday, active weather continues, though this is the period with the most amount of uncertainty still. Despite being within 24-36 hours of this event, models continue to struggle hard with how to handle the evolution of the second trough approaching the area, primarily in how much and how fast to wrap up the low with the storm as it pushes over. The uncertainty is possibly caused by interactions with the exiting wave from Thursday, and then how far south the wave digs behind it. Still, certainty is very high (80-90%) in an active and impactful period of weather. Current thinking is that the wave will have a brief window to modestly wrap up, allowing for a period of increased and deeper forcing, particularly across the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas. In addition, forcing at the surface will also become heightened as another frontal surge takes place. However, unlike Thursday, moisture quality is expected to be less as the richer moisture is advected eastward with the first Thursday wave. With that all said, widespread precipitation is still anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Where confidence remains low to medium (40-50%) is how much, and where, the heaviest snowfall will take place. This will be highly dependent on how and when the low wraps up, and as alluded to, model guidance is struggling to resolve this messy pattern, leading to the lower confidence. With the current thinking though, the heaviest snow is likely to take place across the Palmer Divide and Pikes Peak region, and the Raton Mesa region where ascent from the wave and surface forcing behind the second front will allow for more favorable conditions of heavier snow. It should be noted this storms has large "boom or bust" potential given how dependent it will be on the evolution of the trough. The areas with biggest "boom or bust" potential are not only the specifically aforementioned regions, but across the far southeastern plains as well, where some of the lastest model guidance tries wrapping up the low more intensely. If this where to take place, heavy snow would develop in response to the increased ascent and moisture being pulled into this localized region. All in all, an active period of wintry weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado, and travel conditions are likely to become hazardous Thursday night into Friday as snow blossoms across the region. Extra caution should be taken when traveling, especially in the specifically mentioned regions above. Outside all of that, another period of cloudy and breezy conditions is expected, though clouds are anticipated start thinning in coverage late in the day. Looking at temperatures, a cooler period is expected thanks to the additional front passage, with Friday falling to below seasonal values.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Friday Night - Wednesday: For the rest of the long term period, quiet weather returns to south central and southeastern Colorado. Ridging and northwesterly flow will develop quickly behind the second wave from Thursday night/Friday. This pattern will bring drier air and increased subsidence. Given this, dry conditions are expected to prevail for the region. Otherwise, pockets of high level clouds and lighter winds are anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Looking at temperatures, a slow warming trend is anticipated, with values returning back to above seasonal values.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

At KPUB and KCOS, brief MVFR conditions with rain and snow showers until 22z-23z, then heavier snow begins to develop 23z-01z, continuing through the night. Expect IFR to LIFR at both airports overnight into mid-morning Fri, before conditions improve as snow ends 15z-16z Fri. Could see some areas of blowing/drifting snow after 12z Fri as n-ne winds increase.

At KALS, occasional MVFR conditions will showers today and tonight, with a period of IFR and steadier snow possible 11z-17z. Winds will remain generally light and variable.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for COZ060-066- 068-072>075. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ079-080-087-088-094. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for COZ081-082. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM MST Friday for COZ083-085-086. Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Friday for COZ084. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ099.