textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture brings better chances for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

- Main concerns from storms will be gusty outflow, lightning, and flash flooding for burn scar areas.

- Hotter and drier conditions are expected to move in around the end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Forecast generally remains on track today, with weaker flow aloft as high pressure builds in from the Four Corners. Slightly warmer today, with highs in the 80s to mid-90s, hottest further east as usual. At the surface, east-southeast winds over the plains will bring in moisture to allow for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Best moisture and chances for storms will be along our southeast mountains and over parts of the plains. Coverage will be isolated to scattered through most of the afternoon, with storms forming west of I-25 and pushing over the plains into the evening. Impact-wise, mainly looking at gusty outflow winds, which could pose serious concern for ongoing wildfire operations. Chances for wetting rain do increase a bit further to the east where the moisture is better. A few stronger to marginally severe storms may be possible late afternoon into early evening, though these would likely be over or near the Raton Mesa. Activity then quickly wanes overnight, with mild temperatures and good RH recovery heading into the work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Long-range models remain in good agreement on the evolution of the pattern through most of next week. More moisture will continue moving into our area at the mid and upper-levels, allowing for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. PWATs remain on the rise, finally creeping above normal values, mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday. That being said, drier air will persist at the low-levels, meaning that gusty outflow winds and virga will still be a concern with any convection. That will be especially true over and near the higher terrain, where these outflow winds could impact burn scar areas and ongoing wildfire operations. Will need to keep an eye out for any lightning starts as well. Any showers that form over or near burn scar areas will also be something to watch closely, as flash flooding could easily become a concern due to brief but heavy rainfall over water-resistant surfaces. Temperatures look to remain around seasonal normals through about mid-week.

Both deterministic and ensemble guidance shows hints at a rather broad high pressure system building in from the west, later this week and towards next weekend. This will bring the return of drier and hotter conditions across the region, with hints at most of the plains climbing into triple-digit temperatures. That being said, winds look light overall, meaning that widespread critical fire weather conditions are not currently expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

At KPUB and KCOS, VFR this morning into early afternoon, then carried a prob30 for -tsra and gusty outflow winds from 21z-24z as storms move off the higher terrain. Convection should end after 00z, though CAMs suggest sely outflow winds from convection over nern NM/sern CO could persist well into the night, temporarily overriding usual drainage flows until early Mon morning.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with light winds generally under 12 kts.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.