textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms continue today through Monday, with flash flooding possible on area burn scars, and a couple of strong to severe storms across the Plains.

- Temperatures remain in the 80s for most areas through Monday.

- A strong upper high is forecast to build across Colorado for mid to late next week which will dry us out and bring warmer temperatures to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Currently...radar shows an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting northeast across the Plains, mainly east of a Walsenburg to Eads line. This activity will continue to lift northeast overnight, clearing into Kansas by daybreak. Areas of fog may develop late tonight across the Plains reducing visibility on area roadways. Temperatures will remain steady into morning with upper 50s to mid 60s across the lower elevations.

Today and tonight...not much change to the forecast thinking, with an upper high over the Southeast US and persistent southwest flow across Colorado. The next in a series of upper level shortwave troughs will move across the region this afternoon into the overnight hours. This will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Low level southeasterly flow, while weaker than yesterday, will remain in place, keeping upper 50 to low 60 dewpoint air banked into the Eastern Mountains. Daytime heating will allow for destabilization by early afternoon across the higher terrain, with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg. 0-6km shear remains on the weaker side near 25 kts. The 00z CAM guidance is in pretty good agreement, with thunderstorms developing by 1 PM along the Eastern Mountains, then spreading east during the late afternoon and evening. The upper wave is a bit south today, with the primary focus across the Raton Mesa, northeast into the Plains. Another focus area will be the Palmer Divide. A few storms may become strong to severe, with 1 inch diameter hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, especially south from the Raton Mesa along the New Mexico border. Storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for this afternoon and evening for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

Temperatures will remain cooler than what we have seen, with the Plains in the lower 80s to near 90, with the warmest readings near the Kansas border. Overnight lows will fall off into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The GFS continues to struggle with the evolution of the upper pattern, while the ECMWF and Canadian are in good agreement. Ensembles are handling things a bit better, and the NBM guidance is slowly starting to trend towards the ECMWF/Canadian as well.

Sunday through Monday...the upper pattern remains consistent with southwesterly flow with embedded energy moving across Colorado. This will lead to more rounds of showers and thunderstorms across southern Colorado. Southeasterly low level flow will keep moisture pooled across the Plains with mid 50s to lower 60s dewpoints through Monday. Instability both afternoons will be modest near 1000 j/kg and 0-6km shear around 25 kts. PWAT values remain elevated on Sunday, drying slightly on Monday as the upper high starts to retrograde west. Thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers, with flash flooding remaining a risk on area burn scars. A few stronger storms are possible across the Plains with hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. Focus areas are still in question and will depend on individual wave tracks. Thunderstorm coverage looks to be greatest on Sunday, with slightly less on Monday due to drier air.

Overall, temperatures will be pleasant through Monday, with mostly 80s across the Plains, and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Saturday...continue to favor the ECMWF and Canadian solutions for mid to late week. Both models develop a 598 dm high right across Utah into Colorado beginning Tuesday, and strengthening through the week. The NBM guidance seems slow to warm temperatures and have a feeling they are 10 degree too cool. Would not be surprised if by Thursday and Friday, highs are back into the upper 90s to near 100 on the Plains. With the upper high in place, drier air will be overhead, with PWAT values falling to near or less than half an inch. Any convection will be confined to the higher terrain, with lightning and gusty outflow winds the main concerns.

The GFS does develop an upper high, just much later in the forecast period. The GFS drops an upper trough out of the Pacific Northwest into the Central Plains for mid week, then builds the high in by next weekend. This upper system would keep temperatures cooler, more in line with the NBM guidance. For now, continuing to discount the GFS solution given the ECMWF and Canadian similarities.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 555 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR this morning with a brief -shra possible, though haven't mentioned it in either taf as chances look very low (10 percent) and any precip will be very light. Thunderstorms return this afternoon, and carried a prob30 for tsra at both sites 20z-02z, before precip shifts eastward this evening. Gusty winds of up to 40 kts and brief heavy rainfall are again the main threats with any storms. Outside of convection, prevailing winds this morning will be variable and light, then becoming sely 5-10 kts after 18z.

At KALS, VFR with a brief sprinkle this morning, then continued VFR this afternoon and evening as bulk of afternoon convection stays east of the terminal. Low chance (10-20 percent) of a vcts and some gusty outflow winds 20z-02z, but chances continue to look too low to include in the taf. Winds this morning will be light, then gradually become swly 8-12 kts 16z-18z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.