textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger continues today, with elevated fire danger persisting Friday and Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures remain in place today through at least Saturday.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns as early as Sunday to portions of the Pikes Peak region, spreading across the remainder of the area through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 117 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Upper level jet will remain over the area today, with brisk mid level flow at 7h/5h slowly tapering off late this afternoon and evening as jet subtly weakens and drifts off to the north tonight. Should be more than enough wind and dry air to justify the current Red Flag Warning along I-25 and back through Fremont County, with a few gusts over 40 mph likely from Pueblo westward through the Arkansas Valley as w-nw winds line up with the river. Main question for this afternoon is how far east will wly winds push, before cold front arrives and switches winds to more nly by late day. Could get an hour or two of critical conditions into Otero/Crowley/ern Las Animas Counties before front moves through, but likely not long enough to justify at warning at this point. Front could end critical conditions in El Paso County a little early, but think we'll get more than the required 3 hours as winds pick up early enough in the morning. A few snow showers will linger over the central mountains, especially this morning, though accums will be limited to mainly higher elevations. Max temps today will continue well above seasonal averages despite the frontal passage, and kept maxes at or a little above most guidance numbers.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 117 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Friday, main question concerns the Fire Weather Watch, as lee surface trough stays west of I-25, which will likely limit the eastward spread of strong winds through the day. Still looks fairly windy in Fremont/Teller Counties, with a few hints of perhaps a weak mountain wave and enhanced winds in Teller County late in the day. Will keep highlight a watch for now, but it may need some reconfiguration as weekend approaches. Max temps Fri look little changed from Thursday, with readings again well above average. Mid-level flow relaxes a bit on Sat, and with 7h flow generally under 20 kts, surface winds may end up weak enough to avoid any fire weather highlights, though gap flow through the Arkansas Valley could enhance things a bit. Upper jet sags back southward across Colorado on Sunday, with frontal boundary backing westward across the plains during the day. A good deal of deterministic and ensemble guidance break out precip behind the front over mainly northern Colorado late Sunday into Sunday night, with rain and snow showers as far south as the Pikes Peak region by late day. Current NBM low pops/light QPF look fine for now, but might need to be increased a bit as we get closer to the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday next week, western U.S. cut-off ejects across Colorado during the period, though timing/strength/track differences persist. Most consistent messages from the models appears to be 1) system will bring precip to most of southern Colorado sometime during the early/mid week, with 00z deterministic models leaning toward Tues night/Wed having the highest pops, while NBM is faster with higher pops during the day Tue. 2) System will be very warm, keeping snow levels high (7k-8k feet) initially before falling somewhat as low departs. This would keep bulk of precip rain on the plains and along I-25, though some snow could be possible as the system departs and temps cool. 3) Most solutions tend to track the upper low quickly into the central plains, which will keep QPF on the light side, with WPC and NBM consensus of less than a half inch of total QPF, heaviest amounts over the mountains. Temps will cool due to clouds and precip, with Monday potentially seeing the lowest temperatures as clouds and light east winds could keep cool air in place along and east of the mountains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions expected over the 24 hour period with scattered high clouds at times. Winds will increase from the Northwest at all three terminals between 17z and 18z with gusts up to 25-35 kts through the afternoon. A dry cool front will shift winds out of the north at KCOS and KPUB during the late afternoon with winds decreasing at all three terminals during the early evening. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ222-226>230. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ221-222-227>230.