textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Above seasonal temperatures through the end of the week.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain Thursday and Friday.

- Showers and storms ramp up along the Divide Saturday, still warm across the plains.

- Active weather returns to the region starting Sunday, lasting into next week. It could get rather impactful as a fairly strong system moves across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Relatively quiet at the start of the period, with only isolated shower and thunderstorm development occurring across the higher terrain. Most of the development should stay focused along and west of the Continental Divide, where a small but tightly pact vort max is located. Additionally, higher instability over the high terrain resides in this location. Can't rule out isolated development over the southeast mountains this afternoon too, as 700mb flow is situated right into the mountains. While weak, it should support additional development, similar to what has already occurred over the Wets and Ramparts.

Warmer temperatures continue on Thursday as 700mb temps in the teens are once again observed. The relatively active mid levels note a downward trend on Friday, as the energy weakens/dampens within the broader baggy flow. So, while isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible Thursday afternoon over the Continental Divide, coverage and intensity will continue to be on the low side.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Saturday, the main change this day will be in the mountains. As for the plains, Saturday will be nearly identical to Friday. However, over the higher terrain, more clouds are anticipated and there will be a better chance of showers over the Divide, and likewise, temps will be several degrees cooler over the higher terrain.

On the large scale, the pattern over the region will change as flow aloft will shift to a southwesterly direction through most of the column as a strong trough moves into the northwestern CONUS and begins to dig southward down the Pacific coast.

By midday Sunday, the trough over the west coast becomes a full longitude trough along the entire coast as the main Pacific trough interacts/merges with tropical cyclone activity off the Mexican coast. Flow over the entire Rocky mountain region becomes south- southwesterly and increases. This will push moisture up into the region and expect quite a few showers to be occurring over the Contdvd region on this day. This is clearly reflected in the statistical guidance as point forecast for the Wolf Creek region shows heavy rain occurring during the latter Sunday/Monday period over the Southwest mountains. The plains on this period will likely remain dry, but temps are expected to cool into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower terrain.

From Monday into next week, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the track, speed, flow orientation and moisture with this large scale trough. Although all of the long range deterministic guidance shows the trough moving through during the mid week period, there is still lofts of uncertainty. As mentioned yesterday, confidence is high that it will be getting cooler over the entire region next week and it will be wet over the CONTDVD region, but how cool and wet (white) still need to be determined.

Based on the latest deterministic guidance, the trough should move across the state later on Wednesday. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 532 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions with generally light diurnal wind regimes are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain will diminish and end with the loss of heating, leading to clearing skies through the overnight hours. Similar set up for tomorrow, with more isolated afternoon showers and storms mainly over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.