textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday, with the best coverage along and north of Highway 50.

- Spotty critical fire weather conditions across portions of Huerfano County today, with potentially more widespread conditions across the interior valleys and gap flow areas Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cooler and unsettled Thursday and Friday with increasing chances of widespread precipitation.

- Warmer and drier for next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to indicate moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, with a broad upper trough in place across the West Coast. Water vapor imagery also indicates one embedded wave translating across the the Northern Rockies at this time, with another wave moving across the Great Basin. Regional radars have a few showers lifting out across the northeast plains, with more scattered showers lifting out across western Colorado at this time.

There are no big changes to the ongoing forecast through tonight, as latest model data continues to indicate moderate west to southwest flow in place across the region, as the Great Basin embedded wave continues to translate across Western Colorado and into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the wave will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected along and north of the Highway 50 Corridor. Some light snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible across the higher peaks of the Central mtns into the Pikes Peak region, with snow levels aoa 9,000 feet. Further east across the plains, tonight's passing wave across the Northern Rockies sends another weak northerly surge across the plains through the morning, with low level flow becoming more east to southeast through the afternoon. With a slight increase low level moisture, latest models do indicate cape up to 400 j/kg across the higher terrain, along with a ribbon of cape of 400-800 j/kg across the Pikes Peak region. This, along with enough shear in place could support a few stronger storms and the potential for low topped super cells with the help of "Palmer Divide magic". Time will tell, however, will need to watch for the potential for some bigger hail with said stronger storms, though the main threats from most storms being gusty outflow winds.

With the front moving across the plains through the morning, latest models continue to indicating breezy westerly developing across the southern I-25 Corridor through the late afternoon, leading to spotty critical fire weather conditions across western portions of Huerfano county late this afternoon. Currently, these conditions are too spotty to issue any fire weather highlights.

Showers diminish through the overnight hours with partial clearing leading to lows in the 30s across the plains, and mainly in teens and 20s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A similar setup is expected across the region on Tuesday, as the main West Coast trough translates across the Northern Rockies. The more westerly flow aloft across the region on Tuesday will bring the potential for more Critical Fire Conditions to the interior valleys and into the gap flow areas of the I-25 Corridor. However, with latest models indicating mixing generally up to 550-600 MB, we are not realizing the strongest winds to the surface, leading to only marginal critical fire weather conditions. With that said, we did not issue any fire weather highlights for Tuesday at this time. Otherwise, there is enough available moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, once again favoring northern portions of the region.

For Wednesday through Friday, models continue to indicate run to run differences on timing and phasing of northern and southern stream energy across the Rockies, with the latest EC a tad faster with the northern stream sending a front and moisture across the region as early as Wednesday evening. The EC is also slower and further south with the southern stream system moving across the southern Rockies Thursday night and Friday. The latest GFS and Canadian runs keep the enough moisture across the region to support isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a northern stream trough digging across the Rockies Thursday and Friday, as the southern stream system translates tad further north across central New Mexico. Each systems ensemble data is consistent with keeping the best moisture across the southern Rockies where PWATS are progged to be over 200 percent of normal, with PWATS of 100 to 160 percent of normal across the Central Rockies. With that said, we are still expecting widespread precipitation developing across the region stating in the late Wednesday night or Thursday timeframe, and lasting through Friday night, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain, with weak easterly low level upslope combined with ample moisture within the west to southwest flow aloft. Models do indicate the potential for snow levels down to between 7K-8K feet, with light to moderate snow accumulations and possible winter weather highlights needed, especially across the Southeast Mtns. While timing of the system remains in question, high temperatures look to be well below seasonal levels, especially Thursday and Friday. A warming and drying trend does remain in the offing through next weekend, as upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

At KCOS, cold front has moved through the terminal, bringing a a vcsh after 20z and prob30 for -tsra 21z-24z as air mass moistens behind the boundary. Winds will continue to be easterly through the afternoon and into the evening, with a few gusts over 20 mph possible. Winds turn more sely overnight, with a period of IFR stratus likely 05z-16z, then slowly improving cigs after 16z Tue.

At KPUB, nw winds will switch to e-se this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Will include a vcsh for a few hrs 23z-02z, though best chance will likely be just north of the terminal. Persistent e-se wind overnight will bring in MVFR stratus after 17z, with lower clouds lingering until 18z Tue.

At KALS, VFR with gusty w-sw winds this afternoon, diminishing this evening. Gusty w-sw winds return 17z-18z Tue.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.