textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler Friday with isolated showers over and near the mountains.

- Warm and breezy again Saturday with critical fire weather conditions possible for the valleys, portions of the I-25 corridor and far southern plains.

- Back to warm and mostly dry with elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible across the valleys, portions of the I-25 corridor and southern plains Sun-Tue along with near record high temperatures.

- Active weather pattern through mid to late week with slightly cooler temperatures, and a chance of showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1251 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Post frontal upslope flow continues early this morning with stratus expanding eastward from the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains into the adjacent plains. Some light showers will be possible in and near the mountains as the moisture deepens into the morning hours, but high res models have been backing off on the coverage, and not expecting much in the way of precipitation from these. Otherwise, it will be cloudy most of the day across the plains with clouds eroding from east to west gradually through the afternoon and evening as upslope flow weakens and shifts from a more southerly direction. High temperatures will be considerably cooler, especially across the plains with highs in the 40s and 50s. The valleys and mountains will also be somewhat cooler with highs around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Isolated showers will develop over the mountains during the afternoon bringing some spotty light precipitation along with some gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, no critical fire weather conditions are expected given higher humidity values.

Friday night will be colder with low temperatures closer in line with seasonal normals. Lee troughing redevelops overnight which will allow for some enhanced westerly drainage winds to set up along the lower east slopes towards morning. This will allow temperatures to warm some towards sunrise as winds kick in. -KT

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

We jump right back into unseasonably warm temperatures and breezy conditions for Saturday with critical fire weather conditions redeveloping across the valleys, mountains and the far southern and eastern plains on the east side of the surface lee trough. Current Fire Weather Watches still look good and had to expand them to include Teller county and the eastern most counties near the KS border. Southwest winds may push off the mountains into the I-25 corridor counties of El Paso and Pueblo rather late in the day. These zones are currently not in the watch as the duration of gusty winds do not make the required 3 hour window to meet Red Flag Criteria. This will be monitored and updated as needed if the timing changes. Otherwise, another round of isolated high based showers will be possible in and near the mountains, though odds continue to decrease with the 00z runs and have trimmed back pops from the NBM.

The warm up continues for Sunday, though there will be an increase in mid/high cloud cover as moisture and weak energy rides through westerly flow aloft across CO. Winds aloft look a little lighter, which may keep Critical Fire Weather conditions more spotty in nature for the valleys. We may need another Fire Weather Watch for the valley areas based off NBM, but odds of gusts over 25 mph do look a little lower on Sunday (50-60%) as opposed to Sat (70-95%). There are some subtle differences in the deterministic models on how much the ridge flattens, which determines how strong the flow aloft will be. Conditions could get close. Current thinking is the increased cloud cover should help limit mixing some, so will hold off on issuing additional Fire Weather Watches. Otherwise, there will be sufficient moisture for isolated mountain showers in the afternoon and evening but any precipitation looks very light.

The pattern remains more active for next week with west to southwesterly flow and progressive troughs moving through the flow. Southerly flow helps tap some Pacific moisture bringing rounds of showers to mainly the mountain areas and above normal temperatures for the plains. The Continental Divide will see the best chance for wetting precipitation with snow levels around 10000 feet (or a little lower at night). Best chances come Tuesday night through Wednesday, though timing of this system is prone to change. A few inches of snow will be possible across the higher mountains with showers spilling into the adjacent southeast plains at times, especially Wednesday. Temperatures do cool a bit but still remain above normal. Still can't rule out some critical fire weather conditions at times across the plains, though Wednesday looks like the cooler day of the bunch as humidity values stay above critical thresholds.

Long range models and ensembles advertise a stronger trough for late week though all agree on it passing to the north of the area. This would suggest another round of mainly mountain showers and some slightly cooler temperatures. Winds across the southeast plains could get gusty at times with periodic showers spreading off the mountains into the adjacent plains as the system moves across. Overall the pattern keeps the majority of the precipitation along the Continental Divide with only spotty light precipitation across the plains. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 533 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

For KCOS and KPUB..MVFR ceilings will continue to be possible through the morning hours, especially at KCOS. Winds will be light and mainly easterly through the morning hours, becoming gustier out of the southeast later this afternoon. Clouds will lift and scatter through the late morning and afternoon hours, with VFR conditions expected after 17Z at both stations.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southeast winds with gusts to 24kt are expected later this afternoon and into this evening. Scattered to broken middle and upper-level cloud cover is expected.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ220>222-224-225-229-230-233>237.