textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- 5 to 10 degrees warmer today; a few storms (possibly strong) down along the CO/NM-OK border

- Mainly dry and warm into Sunday, then increasing moisture Monday and especially Tuesday (with most of it in the mtns)

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

It is expected to be drier and warmer today as compared to yesterday across the region. Guidance shows the best chance of scattered storms down along the CO/NM-OK border. Some stronger storms were noted in the HREF guidance along and mainly south of the border, but a strong storm or two cant be ruled out on the Colorado side of the border later this afternoon. Overall, expect temps in the mid to upper 70s across the plains with lower 70s larger valleys.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Sunday....

Storms this day will be mainly over the higher terrain and possibly across the far southeast part of the fcst area. It will be warmer with highs reaching around 90 across the warmest part of the plains with upper 70s valleys.

Monday...

The pattern starts to change as a robust, albeit small, closed low starts to moving into the northwest intermountain region. Flow in advance of this system becomes southwesterly and moisture begins to advect into the western part of the region. Overall, temps will be similar or a degree or two warmer over the region, but we will likely see an increase in storm activity in the mtns. I am still concerned that lightning will be on the increase, and with it being so dry in the mtns new fire starts from lightning will be a distinct possibility.

Tuesday...

Moisture will noticeably increase this day over all of the region, especially along the divide, as NBM guidance came in with categorical pops for a good chunk of the higher terrain. These high pops are associated with the lead short wave in advance of the closed low which will likely be located over the intermountain northwest by 12 UTC TUE. Favorable lift will move over the region Tuesday afternoon with plenty of instability, so Lots of storms are expected and we could see widespread precip, but we will also see quite a bit of lightning activity over the higher terrain on this day. On the other hand we may actually see some heavy rain with the storms. This day will have to be watched carefully.

Wednesday into late week...

By mid week the closed low will be over Nevada/Utah, and it is fcst to lift to the northeast through late week. Although the low will be relatively close by to our state during this time, dry air is fcst to advect immediately in advance of the low and dry air is fcst to move up into the state from the Southwest US. This will likely allow the temps to warm up and the precip to decrease. We will have to watch how this system actually evolves as if this system tracks only a bit differently then we could see a wetter scenario. (i.e., the mid levels may dry out but we may see favorable low level moisture advect onto the plains and this would be favorable for more convection over the plains). Twit. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 526 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Patchy stratus this morning across the southeast plains will stay in the VFR category before gradually decreasing by 15z. Winds will increase from the south to southeast at 10-15 kts for both KCOS and KPUB this afternoon with cumulus build ups over the mountains, pushing off into the adjacent plains this afternoon. Chances for -SHRA remains too low to warrant inclusion in TAFs at this point. Convective cloud cover will increase during the late afternoon and evening before clearing again this evening as light diurnally driven winds set up.

ALS will stay VFR with cumulus build ups developing in the afternoon. This will bring a gusty west winds into the terminal around 21z. Winds will decrease during the evening under clearing skies. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.