textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snow through the day Sunday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the plains, some possibly strong to severe.

- Critical fire weather conditions across the southern Tier Sunday, with more widespread conditions possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Another round of showers and possible storms Monday.

- Unsettled pattern continues late week into early next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 712 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Updated to add areas of fog across El Paso County this morning. Several reports have indicated visibilities under 2 miles in areas, with several areas near a quarter mile. Slow down and use headlights. Fog looks to dissipate through 10 to 11 AM.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 146 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, with a broad upper trough in place across the West Coast and minor waves ejecting across the Great Basin and Rockies at this time. Regional radars have a few showers lifting out across the northeast plains, with scattered showers lifting northeast across western Colorado at this time. Further east, satellite data and surface observations indicating stratus developing across the southeast plains as low level moisture continues to increase within the east to southeast upslope flow behind yesterdays backdoor front.

Latest model data remains in good agreement of increasing moisture within the increasing southwest flow aloft through the day, as short wave energy ejects across the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies through the afternoon, before continuing into the Northern High Plains Sunday night. With the increasing lift and moisture, will see increasing coverage and intensity of showers along the Continental Divide through the day, with the best coverage shifting to the Northern and Central mtns through the evening and into the overnight hours. Current Winter Weather Advisories for the SW and Central mtns remain on track, with 5 to 10 inches across the higher peaks through Sunday night. Further east, stratus continues to develop across the plains overnight, with slow clearing from west to east through the morning, with developing downslope flow and lee cyclogenesis across the plains. Cant rule out a few showers and or patchy drizzle across the plains through the overnight hours, with waa within the southwesterly flow aloft.

Said surface low will help to develop a dryline across the far southeast plains through the afternoon, with latest higher res data indicating cape up to 1000 j/kg, along with ample shear of 40-50 kts to support a few strong to severe storms producing strong outflow winds and marginally severe hail. Latest HREF data keeps the best chances of severe storms across Kiowa and Prowers counties, where the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has pulled the marginal risk a tad further west to account for the latest higher res data. Further west of the dryline, latest models indicating gusty west to southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph developing through the late morning and afternoon, supporting critical fire weather conditions across the southern tier zones, including Las Animas and Baca counties, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 8 pm. Passing wave sends a weak northerly surge across the plains Sunday night, with the potential for a few showers developing across northern portions of southeast plains overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 146 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Monday-Tuesday...Models continue to indicate moderate west to southwest flow in place across the region, as the main West Coast trough translates across the Rockies. Sunday nights weak passing front keeps easterly upslope in place across the plains, keeping spotty elevated fire danger across the San Luis Valley and into western portions of Las Animas county, with fire weather highlights not anticipated at this time. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the West Coast system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across the region Monday afternoon and evening, with models keeping the best coverage north of the Highway 50 Corridor. The more westerly flow aloft across the region on Tuesday will bring the potential for more widespread Critical Fire Conditions to the interior valleys and into the gap flow areas of the I-25 Corridor, with enough available moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, once again favoring northern portions of the region.

For Wednesday and beyond, model data remains quite messy with a split flow northern and southern stream trying to merge across the Rockies. Timing and location of these system remains in question, with latest ensemble mean data indicating the southern stream energy staying further south across the southern Rockies. Despite the further south solutions, the latest ECS and GEFS data does indicate 0.50 to over 1 inch of qpf across south central and southeast Colorado, greatest across the southeast mountains and immediate adjacent plains, in the Thursday and Friday timeframe. With that said, stayed with current NBM data, which does indicate widespread precipitation and snow levels down to around 8000 ft through that period. Time will tell.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

KALS...CIGS near 6 kft will continue this morning, with a few showers possible across the San Luis Valley. Confidence in one occurring at the terminal is low at this time, and removed it from the 12z TAF. Winds will steadily increase through mid morning into the afternoon, with gusts well in excess of 30 kts expected. CIGS will improve by early afternoon with VFR conditions this afternoon, through the overnight period.

KCOS and KPUB...low CIGS and patchy fog will impact both sites this morning, with CIGS under 1000 ft, and VIS around 3SM. CIGS will slowly improve through mid to late morning. Winds will increase through early afternoon, with gusts nearing 40 kts. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the region, but confidence is low in one impacting either terminal.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of Las Animas and Baca counties, from noon to 8 pm today, as a lee low develops across the far southeast plains through the late morning and afternoon. This will allow for gusty southwest winds of 25 to 45 mph to develop through the late morning and persist through the late afternoon across western portions of the plains, with eastern portions of Las Animas county into Baca county seeing humidity levels dropping to between 10-15 percent in the afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ060- 068. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233-237.