textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Beneficial snows for the Continental Divide tonight through Wednesday with more isolated activity for the southeast plains

- Return to critical fire weather conditions for Thursday across much of the southeast plains

- Another system for Friday though a more northern storm track suggests more wind than precipitation across southern CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Pacific moisture continues to increase across southern CO ahead of the upper system for Wednesday. Rounds of showers will spread into the Continental Divide through tonight with the heaviest falling Wednesday morning as the upper trough swings through. Instability will be sufficient for some heavier snow bursts, especially over the San Juans, but QPF in model blends looks overdone and likely convectively enhanced especially into Wednesday afternoon. Forcing with the system will already be exiting eastern CO towards 00z. There could be a brief period of wrap around across northern portions of the southeast mountains and plains Wed evening if a circulation center is wrapped up sufficiently...though this solution appears to be an outlier among the ensembles. Given the speed of the system, and the warmth with snow levels rising back above 9000 feet in the afternoon, do not think that accumulating snows will be as impactful for the mountain passes, especially for the southeast mountains. Will need to watch Wolf Creek and Monarch passes closely though as convection can be a wild card for quickly driving snow levels down and bringing some locally higher amounts under the heavier snow bursts. But there is also a high likelihood that the eastern San Juans will get dry slotted in the afternoon as the system passes which should keep any convective bursts more localized. The central mountains will not see as favorable orographics until Wednesday afternoon, by which time the upper trough is lifting off to the east. So current Winter Weather Advisors for the Continental Divide still look on target.

For the southeast mountains and adjacent plains, some passing snow showers at times can be expected tonight through Wednesday. Higher peaks could see 4-7 inch amounts, but these stay fairly high and above pass levels. Any showers which spread into the plains look spotty and light with the potential for some embedded thunder out east near the KS border early Wed afternoon. -KT

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Winds increase on Thursday in the wake of the previous system and ahead of the next, which will be moving towards the Great Basin and northern U.S. Rockies through the day. With scant precipitation expected east of the mountains on Wed, this will set the stage for another critical fire weather day for the southeast plains. New Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Thursday afternoon and evening for most of the southeast plains. Some concerns will be locations that get rainfall on Wednesday which could impact northern portions of the southeast plains, especially the Pikes Peak region and perhaps Kiowa county. But given the current forecast QPF of under 0.10 across much of the region, have opted to include both of these zones in the Fire Weather Watch with the potential need for refinement if the wrap around precipitation slips farther southward. Northern El Paso is not quite meeting RH requirements, and have better odds of seeing at least some wetting precipitation on Wednesday, so will not include then in the Watch for now. Otherwise, temperatures will still be above normal, though well below record high temperature territory.

Potent low pressure system will move across WY Thursday night and Friday with energy rotating around the base of the passing system across CO on Friday. This will bring another windy day with critical fire weather conditions for the San Luis Valley and potentially southern portions of the southeast plains depending on the timing of a cold front. Some isolated to scattered showers will be possible, but precipitation amounts look spotty and light across the central and southeast mountains and adjacent plains given the storm track stays well to our north.

We warm up and dry out again for the weekend with another cold front for Monday. Precipitation chances look low at this point given continued progressive westerly flow aloft with brief embedded shortwaves. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 948 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

KALS...

Overnight, breezy winds will remain out of the SSW, picking up again BY Wednesday afternoon. Showers are expected over and near the higher terrain, with chances for showers at the terminal between 12Z-18Z, and again through 21Z. Any showers that pass close by will kick up wind gusts to 35 knots and MVFR cigs, along with briefly reduced visibility.

KCOS...

Breezy southeast winds will continue overnight, with increasing mid- level clouds. Showers will pass through the area in the afternoon hours, changing winds to southwesterly and bringing a chance of rain and the terminal around 21Z-00Z. Showers could result in gustier winds, MVFR cigs, and briefly reduced visibility. VFR will return Wednesday evening, though gusty northwest winds and mostly cloudy skies will remain.

KPUB...

Fairly light east winds will pair with increasing cloud cover tonight. By Wednesday afternoon, gusty southwest flow will set in with gusts upwards of 30 knots. Between 22Z-00Z, there is a chance that passing showers could impact the terminal, lowering cigs to MVFR and briefly reducing visibility. VFR conditions return later in the evening as showers move on, though gusty northwest winds around 25 knots are expected.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ058- 060-066-068. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ227>237.