textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this afternoon, with gusty outflow winds possible from any organized storms.

- At and above normal temperatures through the end of the work week, with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong across the plains.

- A drying trend with above normal temperatures for the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Today: Midweek brings another day of afternoon showers and storms to portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Messy and relatively weak northwest flow will be in place over the region. While major forcing is not expected, diurnal upsloping is anticipated to materialize during the afternoon hours. This terrain induced upsloping, along with moisture in place, will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom along the higher terrain during the early afternoon hours. While flow is weak, some showers and storms are expected to push off the terrain and across the valleys and immediate plains areas. Greatest concerns with any thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty outflow winds around 40-50 mph given high storm bases and large T/Td spreads leading to decent DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Beyond all of that, relatively light winds are expected outside of any storm outflows, with clear skies early becoming partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon as showers and storms develop. Looking at temperatures, Wednesday brings another warm day for many, with above seasonal temperatures expected across the area with the plains warming into the mid 80s to low 90s, the valleys into the mid 70s to low 80s, and the mountains into the 50s to 70s.

Tonight: Wednesday night starts off with active weather for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado, though will become quieter by the overnight hours. A ridge of high pressure will start to push over the area during this timeframe. Initially, showers and storms are anticipated to be ongoing during the early evening hours as diurnal upsloping and instability remain in place. However, with the increasing subsidence from the ridge, and decreasing diurnal upsloping and instability, showers and storms are expected to start dissipating by mid to late evening, with dry conditions then prevailing during the overnight hours. Outside of that, light winds will persist into Thursday morning, with afternoon cloud cover slowly lessening through the evening and early overnight hours. As for temperatures, with light winds and clearing skies, much of the area will fall to around seasonal low temperatures, with the plains dropping into the 50s, the valleys into the 40s, and the mountains into the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Thursday...Modest westerly flow aloft remains progged across the region as latest model data continues to indicate a weak embedded short wave translating through the stronger flow across the Northern Tier. This said wave looks to bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region, with scattered convection developing across the higher terrain late Thursday morning and early afternoon. Showers and storms spread east across the adjacent plains through the afternoon and into the southeast plains through the early evening. Sounding data indicates generally inverted v profiles which supports gusty outflow winds associated with these passing storms, especially across the southeast plains where the best cape and dcape could help produce a few marginally severe storms. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to be above seasonal levels with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, into the 70s to low 80s for the high valleys and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

For Friday...generally weak westerly flow continues across the Rockies, with another wave translating across the Northern Tier supporting isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection. Again, sounding profiles support higher based storms, save for the far eastern plains, where enough low level moisture and just enough shear may be in place to support stronger storms late Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Friday to be similar to previous days with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, into the 70s to low 80s for the high valleys and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Tuesday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build back across the Rockies for the weekend. Operational and ensemble model data support much drier air moving across the region within generally weak southwest flow aloft across the region. This will lead to decreasing chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend, with any storms that can develop being higher based. Temperatures into early next week to remain above seasonal norms with highs the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Models then continue to differ on the location and amplitude of an upper trough trying to break down the ridge into the middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation chances. NBM data does support a slow decrease in temperatures and a slight uptick in convection for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The main concern for this TAF period will be the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. They are expected to initially develop along the mountains and then push off the terrain and drift to the southeast during the mid to late afternoon. Coverage isn't expected to be high, especially over KCOS and KPUB, but lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will be the most likely hazards from any more organized convection. Otherwise, clear skies early will give way to increased mid to high level clouds by mid to late afternoon, with relatively light winds, outside of storm outflows, expected through this TAF period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.