textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, warm and breezy today, with meteorological critical fire weather conditions across much of south central and southeast Colorado.

- Passing system brings cooler, but near seasonal temperatures on Thursday, with elevated fire weather conditions still present.

- Warmer into the early weekend, with cooler and more unsettled weather for the late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 142 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with one embedded short wave lifting out across the Northern Rockies at this time. Regional radars are indicating waa showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across northern Colorado, with regional satellite imagery indicating subsident and much drier air in place across the Great Basin early this morning. At the surface, a weak trough is in place across the lower Arkansas River valley early this morning, with breezy south to southwest winds continuing along and south the boundary, and northerly winds developing north of the boundary at this time.

For today and tonight, moderate westerly flow aloft through the day increases through tonight, as the next embedded wave translating across the Intermountain West, continues across the Northern Rockies tonight. With dry and subsident air in place behind tonight passing wave, we are expecting mainly clear skies through the day, with breezy westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph mixing down over and near the higher terrain through the late morning and afternoon. Further east will see lee troughing developing across the plains, with breezy southerly winds expected across the far southeast plains through the afternoon. With very dry air in place, will continue to see meteorological critical fire weather conditions across much of the area, with current Red Flag Warnings remaining in place from noon through 8 pm where fuels are deemed critical, across the Southwest Mountains into the San Luis Valley, the gap flow areas of the mid Arkansas River Valley, the southern I-25 Corridor and across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Will likely see critical fire weather conditions across portions of western Pueblo county as well, though coverage is not expected to be enough to add the whole zone into a Red Flag Warning. Temperatures aloft cool slightly today, more so across northern Colorado, though with expected downslope and sunshine, highs still look be some 5-10F above seasonal levels mainly in the 90s across the plains, with 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain below records of 91F at ALS, 98F at COS, and 103F at PUB, all set in 2013, which was a day before the Black Forest Fire 13 years ago tomorrow, June 11th, 2013.

Breezy westerlies will be slow to diminish over and near the higher terrain through the evening, with the passing Northern Rockies wave sending a dry cold front across the eastern plains, where gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph develop in its wake overnight. The breezy conditions will keep overnight lows mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the plains, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Poor overnight RH recovery is also expected overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 142 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Moderating westerly flow aloft behind the passing wave remains progged across the region on Thursday, with gusty northerly winds across the plains Thursday morning, becoming breezy easterly through the afternoon. Dry air remains in place across the region with only a few cumulus buildups expected over the higher terrain through the afternoon. Temperatures behind the front cool to around seasonal levels with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains on Thursday, with temperatures remaining in the 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Despite the cooler temperatures, the dry and breezy conditions will likely develop elevated fire weather conditions across the plains on Thursday, with only spotty critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain, due to weaker westerly winds.

Friday and Saturday will feature warmer conditions with modest westerly flow across the region through the early weekend, leading to temperatures at and above seasonal levels. Model data continues to support a slow increase in available moisture across the plains, with increasing chances of afternoon showers and storms, mainly across the eastern mtns and plains for Friday and Saturday.

A stronger passing system across the Northern Tier will bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the region Sunday into early next week, before upper level ridging builds across the Rockies, bringing warm and drier weather back to region for the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions across the forecast area today due to very dry air. Strong gusty winds will build in from the west by the early afternoon and remain through the night. The strongest winds through the calendar today are expected near terminals in the mountains. A frontal passage around 08Z (+/-1hr) will force strong NNW winds of 20-30kts for the eastern plains including KCOS and KPUB. Low Level Turbulence is possible through the day due to strong winds expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

With breezy westerly flow aloft and very dry air in place, will continue to see meteorological critical fire weather conditions across much of the area, with current Red Flag Warnings remaining in place from noon through 8 pm where fuels are deemed critical, across the Southwest Mountains into the San Luis Valley, the gap flow areas of the mid Arkansas River Valley, the southern I-25 Corridor and across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Will likely see critical fire weather conditions across portions of western Pueblo county as well, though coverage is not expected to be enough to add the whole zone into a Red Flag Warning. Poor overnight RH recovery is expected overnight, with a passing cold front across the plains developing gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph in its wake early Thursday morning. Despite cooler air, but still near seasonal temperatures, the breezy and dry conditions will keep fire weather conditions elevated across the plains on Thursday, with more spotty critical fire weather conditions expected over and near the higher terrain.

Warm and breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday will once again develop meteorological critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain, with slowly increasing available moisture bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Cooler and more unsettled weather remains in the offing for Sunday into early next week. Upper level ridging builds back across the region for the middle and end of next week

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222>224- 229-230-234>236.