textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...INCLUDING THE CITIES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

- Severe storm threat continues into Friday for the plains.

- Red flag conditions for the interior mtns and valleys Today and Wednesday.

- Some precip for the mtns tomorrow, more on Thursday.

- Hod and dry all areas this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1240 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Main concern today and tonight will be the threat of high end severe convection over the region. For this afternoon, any convection will be isolated, but potentially impactful. First threat area will be Baca county as 5000 CAPE noted at this time with sufficient shear. If a storm should initiate, it will likely be severe, However it should move relatively quickly into the OK and TX panhandles.

2nd threat area for this afternoon is the Pikes Peak region. Model solutions vary considerably with any convection initiating in this region, but latest HRR has some convection initiating over eastern El Paso around 6 pm and moving east.

The main time period of concern is late this evening after 10 pm for the I-25 corridor region. Many hi rez solutions show supercells exploding up and down the I-25 corridor and moving east. Large destructive wind drive hail will be possible. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out even along the I-25 corridor region.

Why is this scenario playing out like this? General weak subsidence is moving over the region this afternoon which is preventing convection from being more widespread. However, tonight, strong forcing from a shortwave will move in after 9-10 pm and once this forcing hits the unstable airmass over the plains, it will ignite the convection over the region. With the 40-50knts of shear in place, the storms will likely rotate.

Tomorrow, we will see another round of severe storms over the plains. These storms will likely initiate a bit later than normal as the plains will likely be rather stable tomorrow morning, and will take awhile to destabilize. Large hail and damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will once again be possible.

Moisture will also start to move into the mtns and we will see some shower over the CONTDVD tomorrow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For Thursday, severe storms will once again be possible over the plains. Over the mtns, there will be a much better chance of wetting rains as a moisture plume will move over the higher terrain this day.

Friday, showers and thunderstorms over the entire region, but they should be more generic in nature as the instability and shear will be much less on this day.

Weekend...

HOT and DRY. 100s return to the plains. Meteorological conditions for extreme fire behavior will be in place both days

Monday, a bit cooler with isold showers. Tuesday will be hot and dry again. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KALS...

VFR next 24 hours. Gusty SW sfc winds this afternoon.

KCOS...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON and ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. If storms develop this afternoon, and affect the taf site, they will likely be severe. However, there is some uncertainty if storms will develop during the daylight hours. Of a higher concern, is tonight. Hi res guidance continues to indicate a supercell storms will develop in and around pike peak and affect the KCOS taf region. Best chance will be between 04 UTC and 08 UTC tonight.

IFR will be possible late tonight due to low cigs.

KPUB...

Main concern is the potential for strong to severe storms late this evening and overnight in and around the KPUB region. Best chance will between 06 utc and 09 utc. Low cigs will then likely develop during the remainder of the early morning hours.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220- 222>224. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ220-224.