textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper trough crosses southern Colorado today, with a couple waves of showers/isolated t-storms moving through the area in the afternoon/evening. - Higher mountains, above 8-9k feet, will see snow today, heaviest in the eastern San Juan Mts, where 4-7 inches is expected. Rain/snow mix possible Monument Hill late this evening, though any accumulations here will be minor.

- Dry with a slow warning trend Sun-Mon, before another fast moving trough brings snow to the mountains, mainly along the Continental Divide Tue/Wed.

- A strong winter storm will move through the Rockies and onto the plains toward next weekend, though much uncertainty remains on the ultimate track of the system and where the greatest impacts/heaviest precip will occur.

UPDATE

Issued at 227 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Updated to add fog to El Paso and Pueblo Counties through the early morning. Area webcams and observations are indicating visibilities falling to 1 to 2 miles. A few locations could see denser fog through morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Upper trough over the wrn U.S. early this morning will move across Colorado today into this evening, before closing off a weak upper low across the southern plains early Sunday morning. Already seeing some light snow over the San Juans as of midnight, and expect snow here to become heavier/steadier overnight into early Sat morning as upward motion increases. A few rain/mountain snow showers will spread farther east over most of the high terrain/interior valleys toward sunrise, then a couple waves of showers will develop and move through the mountains and across the plains today, especially this afternoon and evening. May even be enough instability for a few t-storms over the eastern mountains and plains, especially late afternoon into the evening as colder air aloft moves across and lapse rates steepen. Bulk of the precip should be done by midnight, with just some lingering showers and patchy fog into early Sunday morning, mainly on the plains. In general, forecast precip amounts have continued to trend downward, with one or two tenths of an inch of liquid at most locations. Exceptions will be the higher elevations of the San Juans, where a quarter to half inch of liquid (snowfall of 3-7 inches) is possible, with perhaps the higher peaks of the Sangres seeing a quarter inch (2-4 inches of snow). If we do see some stronger convection on the plains, a quick quarter to half inch of rain is possible in isolated spots, with a few CAMs (RRFS/HRRR) occasionally hinting at this. Clouds will keep temps cool today, with highs mainly in the 30s/40s, though a few spots along I-25 could reach the low 50s if we see a few breaks in the clouds midday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Clouds and cool temps will linger Sunday on the plains, as Srn Plains upper low is slow to move eastward, while mountains and interior valleys see more sun and slightly warmer temps. Dry and warmer all areas on Mon, as upper ridge moves across and low/mid level flow turns more swly. Next upper wave moves though late Tue into Wed, though system continues to look rather progressive/fast moving, which will likely limit precip amounts over srn CO. As wave approaches, lee surface trough on the plains will promote deep mixing and warmer temperatures both Tue and Wed, with readings in the 60s along and east of I-25, and potentially approaching 70f at a few locations across the lower Arkansas Valley. Mountains, especially along the Continental Divide, will see a quick shot of snow Tue night/Wed morning, before precip ends by late day Wed as wave moves east. Suspect we'll see accumulating snow and perhaps some brief travel issues over the higher mountain passes, though not looking at major impacts at this point.

Deeper upper trough then moves into the western U.S. late week, before ejecting eastward through the Rockies and into the plains late Fri into Sat. System has potential to be impactful with deep surface low spinning up over the High Plains and strong winds/heavy snow developing, though many questions remain concerning the ultimate track of the system and the location of the heaviest precip. Model trends have been slowly shifting northward the past 24 hrs or so, with surface low spinning up slightly too far north to bring heavy snow to srn CO, though quick look at 14/00z ECMWF deterministic model shows it could be close. Still rather far out of get an exact track at this point, but system needs to be monitored as it won't take much of a southerly shift to bring heavy snow/wind to srn CO.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1047 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Upper low system currently crossing the Four Corners continues to bring snow to the higher terrain, and showers to the high valleys and eastern plains. System is forecast to exit the region around 12z Sun.

KALS...MVFR conditions due to cigs, vsby and -SHRA activity through approx 02z this evening, then clearing skies to give way to patchy fog and MVFR/IFR conditions from 06z onward.

KCOS and KPUB...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low cigs and -SHRA activity through 06z-08z, then IFR/LIFR due to areas of fog and low cigs until around 15z-16z. Current TAFS have TEMPO group 06z-10z for LIFR vsby and cigs, but will likely need to be extended through 15z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for COZ068.