textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures forecast through Monday.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain, and especially the Continental Divide, starts today and continues into the beginning of next week.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday, then significantly cooler for Wednesday through Friday.

- Potential first freeze for the high valleys Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Currently...Cloud cover and isolated shower activity is on the increase along the western CO border late tonight as moisture starts to increase across the Four Corners. Isolated showers were starting to push into the Pagosa Springs and Wolf Creek Pass area as of 11 PM. Overnight low temps tonight are anticipated to drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and 50s for the plains.

Today and tonight...Pacific low center off the southern CA coast is set to absorb the remnants of Hurricane Rachel today, while a longwave trough deepens along the entire West Coast. Deep southwest flow aloft will be in place across the Four Corners, feeding this moisture into western CO. This is already occurring, evident by the isolated activity already pushing into western CO, which will likely lead to isolated showers along the Continental Divide by daybreak. Convection will become more scattered through the day along the Divide, then become widespread across the SW mts through the evening due to favored topography. Forecast QPF amounts have decreased slightly, and expected amounts along the Divide are in the range of around a quarter inch of rain through the day today. While the high valleys will cool a couple degrees due to increasing cloud cover and precip chances, the eastern plains will remain hot. Look for highs in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F once again for the plains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

In the past 24 hrs, models have made a few changes in the expected solution that will have dramatic effects for southern CO. First, the upper trough is located slightly more to the west, outside of the "sweet" spot for copious precip amounts for much of the forecast area save for the Continental Divide. Second, the remnants of Tropical Storm Simon is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coastline much farther south, and will be less of a player in additional available moisture.

Sunday and Monday...Strong Pacific low pressure trough digs south along the West Coast but really remains anchored there on Sunday and for much of Monday. This will lead to enhanced shower and storm chances for the higher terrain, with a focus on western CO and the Continental Divide. Meanwhile, the plains will remain very warm and at times breezy. Latest QPF amounts are showing around .2 to .3 of an inch total over both days for the mts, and around an inch for the eastern San Juans with much of that coming Sunday. Given the decreasing QPF amounts, do not feel a Flash Flood Watch will be needed. As for temps, the plains will remain hot and above normal with highs in the 80s to around 90F. For the high valleys, temps will climb into the 60s to around 70F.

Tuesday...Models finally start the upper low moving across the Great Basin on Tue, reaching the northwestern quad of CO by the evening. This path will lead to continued precip chances for the higher terrain that will likely spread to the Pikes Peak region through the evening, as well as brisk winds for the San Luis Valley and portions of the eastern plains through the day along with perhaps some isolated showers. The cold front originally slated for Tue morning still is there, though it backdoors into the eastern plains and does not look as strong as previously expected. Regardless, cooler temps are forecast across the board for Tue with highs in the 60s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. This is also when temps cool enough for precip to finally switch over to snow for the mts, but weakening moisture plume has really put a damper on potential new snow amounts. Latest forecast amounts are coming in around 2 to maybe 3 inches for the peaks of the eastern San Juan Mts and for the peaks in Lake County.

Wednesday through Friday...Upper low system crosses over CO and WY quickly on Wed, reaching the Dakotas by Thu morning, allowing strong north to northwest flow to sweep across CO both Thu and Fri. Precipitation chances are fairly dismal across the forecast area after Wed evening, but temperatures certainly begin a cooling trend through the end of the week. In fact, freezing overnight temperatures are forecast for the high valleys starting Wednesday night, and continuing each night into the weekend. Moore

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 511 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will have more of southwest component to them through the period, especially during the afternoon hours.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.