textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers mainly over the higher terrain through Tuesday.

- Heavy rain headed for the Continental Divide, especially across the San Juan Range later Wednesday into the Friday timeframe. - Heavy rain on top of saturated soils and higher elevation snow already in place will bring the threat of flooding, with rock/mud slides also possible along the ContDvd.

- Generally warm and dry across the plains through the week, with cooler and more unsettled weather into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has generally weak west to southwest aloft across the region, with a weak short wave embedded within the flow across the Desert Southwest at this time. Regional radars have a few showers across the Western Slope this afternoon, with a few showers lifting out across northeastern New Mexico and the far southeast Plains at this time. Temperatures have warmed into the 60s to lower 70s across the plains this afternoon, with current readings in the 50s across the higher terrain, save for in the 40s at the peaks.

Models remain in good agreement with said wave across the Desert Southwest lifting out across the Central Rockies through the day tomorrow, leading to isolated to scattered showers, with an embedded thunderstorm not out of the question, expected mainly across the higher terrain through the day Tuesday. Can't rule out a few showers across the far southeast plains as well. Weather threats, aside from cloud to ground lightning, include brief rainfall and gusty out flow winds up to 40 mph. With expected increasing cloud cover tonight, lows looks to be in the 40s to around 50 across the plains, and mainly in the 30s across the higher terrain. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s across the plains and in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Latest operational and ensemble model data remain in good agreement through the end of the work week, with transitory upper ridging building across eastern Colorado through Thursday, as southwest flow increases across western Colorado ahead of an eastern Pacific storm system digging into the Great Basin. Model data supports abundant sup-tropical moisture becoming entrained within the southwest flow aloft, with PWATS of 0.8 to over 1 inch (200-300 percent of normal) moving across the region in the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. This, along with increasing orographic flow, and uvv associated with the Pacific system moving across the Great Basin, will lead to increasing coverage and intensity of precipitation along and west of the Continental Divide Wednesday, with the heaviest precipitation expected Thursday into Thursday night, as the main system starts to lift out across the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies.

Latest model data continues to support qpf of 1 to 3 inches along and west of the ContDvd through this period, with probabilities of >3 inches of liquid qpf in the 60 to 80 percent range across the San Juan Mtns. The Pacific origin of the system is expected to keep snow levels around peak level (at and above 12,000 feet) through the duration of the heavy precipitation event (at least through Thursday night), leading to concerns of river and stream flooding as well as the potential for rock/mudslides across the higher terrain of the ContDvd. However, the area of greatest concern remains across the San Juan Mtns, with already saturated soils from previous precipitation last week, as well the potential for rain on top of snowpack already in place, with SNOTEL data indicating SWE 3/4 to 1" across the San Juans at this time. Stay tuned for more information on this potentially high impact event unfolding later this week, with Flood Watches likely being issued as we get closer in time to this heavy precipitation event. Further east, with the transitory ridge, warm and mainly dry conditions will be in place, with chances of showers spreading east across the plains in later Thursday, as the Pacific system lifts out across the Northern Rockies. While models differ on location and strength of the system lifting out through the weekend, most solutions do indicate broad troughing translating across the region, bringing cooler, closer to seasonal temperatures, and unsettled weather to the area through next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 540 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Isolated showers over the mountains will likely miss the KALS terminal through this evening but could bring some light shifting winds. Otherwise, expect VFR cloudiness to persist into Tuesday with generally light diurnally driven winds under 15 kts. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.