textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier for the mountains Wednesday, with cool and wet conditions for the east mountains and plains. Showers and storms will continue.

- Warmer and drier Thurs/Fri, still a low chance of thunderstorms across the eastern mountains and plains. Increased fire danger expected across the San Luis Valley, as winds ramp up.

- Still some hints of potentially cooler and wetter weather for the weekend into early next week, though confidence remains rather low in the timing and coverage of precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

A baggy upper trough continues to influence our area through the rest of today, as a stronger closed low spins over the west coast and slowly moves east-northeast. Through the rest of today, moisture will continue advecting in, with showers and thunderstorms spreading across the mountains and valleys. As far as chances for stronger thunderstorms are concerned, seeing very little in terms of instability. Models indicate around 200-500 J/kg of CAPE across the eastern plains, but with a general lack of shear and good forcing, some embedded thunder and gusty outflow winds are about all today is expected to yield.

For tonight, showers will linger across the area, with more widespread, stratiform precipitation moving onto I-25 from the Raton area. These showers will mainly stay close to the mountains, with better chances for rain in areas with more persistent upsloping. After a brief lull in the early morning hours, more showers and thunderstorms will spread in from the southeast as the upper system moves in.

The main circulation around the upper low begins to move into western Colorado tomorrow. There's been a bit of variation between models on the behavior and strength of this circulation, but in general we should be seeing an uptick in precip chances along and east of our southeast mountains, while drier air moves into the higher terrain and keeps chances low. Any lingering showers from overnight near the mountains should dissipate by mid-morning, with showers and storms kicking up over portions of the plains throughout the rest of the day. Best chances for anything on the stronger side will be along the mountains/plains interface, where easterly upslope will be maximized and enhance lift, and near the KS border, where dewpoints will be a bit higher.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

The upper low continues moving into the Rockies Thurs/Fri, bringing warmer temperatures to most of the area and drier conditions to the mountains. Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected across the San Luis Valley both days, as well as portions of the nearby mountains. As of now, fuels remain green enough to avoid any highlights, but we'll see how much things dry out before then. For the plains, models disagree on the amount of available moisture, and whether we'll see any convection on Thursday. CAPE looks to range anywhere from 200-1000 K/kg with the latest deterministic model runs, and with winds aloft fairly weak, shear looks to be minimal. Latest NBM has brought POPs down a bit, so will stick closer to that solution for now given the drier trend in the data the last few days. Expecting rain showers and a few scattered thunderstorms over the southeast mountains, portions of the Pikes Peak Region, and along the CO/KS border. More dry air moves into the region on Friday, with only scattered afternoon showers and storms expected, mostly over the higher terrain and southeast plains due to diurnal heating. Temperatures will be in the 70s-80s both days, slightly warmer on Friday. Some critical fire weather conditions will also be possible in the San Luis Valley, but winds appear marginal and fuels are still green, so no highlights needed as of yet.

Weekend pattern still looks messy and inconsistent between models. Once the first portion of the upper trough shoves off to our northeast, a weak blocking pattern will build in over the CONUS for a few days. Meanwhile, another trough will begin deepening over the Pacific Northwest. Beyond that, models diverge on the behavior of the overall pattern, particularly in regards to moisture content. Overall, the pattern continues to signal wet conditions over the plains and the southeast mountains, while the rest of the area remains dry, with some fire weather concerns around the San Luis Valley.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

KALS: Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area, sporadically through the next 24 hours. Showers will be present in the area this afternoon, with thunderstorms moving near the terminal after 21Z. Another round of showers will move through the valley after 02Z or so. Assigned PROB30 and TEMPO groups based on confidence in storm coverage. Clouds will sink into the MVFR to high- IFR range, only returning to 5kft or so cigs by the end of the period. Showers and storms will produce gusty outflow, with gusts 25- 30 knots possible.

KCOS: Showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of the area today and tonight. This afternoon, most storms should remain over the mountains, but included a PROB30 as some storms may move further east. Upslope winds will gust 30 knots, weakening to 10 knots or so overnight. These winds will lower cloud decks well into MVFR and remain there into tomorrow. Showers are expected to pass through overnight around 03Z, with another round possible mid-late morning on Wednesday.

KPUB: Breezy southeast winds around 20-25 knots will move into the terminal this afternoon, with clouds dipping into MVFR and largely staying there through Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will pass through the area later this afternoon, potentially bringing precip to the terminal for brief periods between 21-03Z. Winds weaken overnight, and upslope keeps lower clouds in place across the area. Early Weds morning, another round of showers will be possible in the area, lasting into mid-morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.