textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snow and lower elevation rain showers spread across the area Friday afternoon through midday Saturday, heaviest precipitation southern areas, south of Highway 50

- Windy warm and dry conditions with high fire danger possible Monday through Wednesday with the potential for very strong winds on Tuesday with high end Red Flag conditions possible.

- Several rounds of wind driven snow possible across the Continental Divide next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 151 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Still some light snow along the Continental Divide this afternoon, though bulk of the accumulating snow has nearly ended as upper wave shifts east. Enough moisture will linger across the central mountains overnight for some on/off snow showers, and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry/brief snow shower over the Pikes Peak region as well, though any overnight accums look minor.

On Friday, West Coast upper trough/low turn the corner and head east through the Desert SW, reaching central NM by early Saturday morning. As upward motion increases, snow will increase in coverage and intensity along the Continental Divide Friday morning, then precip spreads eastward across much of the area Friday afternoon. Heaviest rain/snow will occur Fri night/Sat morning, with southern zones favored given track of the mid level circulation through NM. Snow levels start really high on Friday, above 8000 feet, then slowly fall toward 7000 feet by Saturday morning, as mid levels finally cool a bit. In terms of snowfall, higher peaks of the San Juans and southern Sangres will do best, with some spotty 6-8 inch amounts above timberline, with a sloppy 2-6 inches over most mountain passes. Valleys and plains will see mainly rain, though a brief mix or changeover to snow will be possible early Saturday morning over the San Luis/upper Arkansas Valleys and along the Palmer Divide/Raton Mesa. Total QPF amounts average from 0.2 to 0.4 inches over southern sections, south of Highway 50, areas to the north will see less perhaps only a tenth or so. Precip ends from west to east Saturday morning, with some rain lingering into the afternoon over the far southeast corner as upper system deepens over the Southern Plains and precip shield wraps back westward. With little cold air coming in behind the trough and some afternoon sun, Sat maxes will bounce back into the 40s/50s at many locations, with even some 60s over the lower Arkansas Valley.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Temperatures rebound back into the 60s to around 70 across the plains on Sunday with 50s across the valleys and 30s and 40s for the mountains. The next Pacific trough enters the west coast on Monday setting up strong southwest flow across CO early next week. Several days of critical fire weather conditions will be possible Monday through Wednesday as dry southwest flow with several shortwaves ejecting across CO bring rounds of strong winds. Monday looks most questionable for fire weather and wind, as mid level winds don't increase until afternoon and surface flow, especially east of I-25, keeps a more southerly component through the day.

Tuesday will be the highest impact day with NBM showing probabilities of wind gusts of 58 mph or higher (lower elevation high wind criteria) up to 80% across the San Luis Valley and most of the southeast plains. Probability of over 75 mph wind gusts (mountain high wind criteria) are up to 80% across the mountains and lower east facing slopes. Mean humidity levels are running around 10-15% in from NBM means, and it is conceivable that they could be lower given pattern recognition. This could put any Critical Fire Weather conditions into the higher impact category. This is still many days out and prone to change but will be monitored closely. Wednesday will continue windy and dry with the potential for another repeat critical fire weather day, though wind gusts may not be quite as high as the upper jet shifts southward.

Meanwhile, the mountains, especially along the Continental Divide, will see rounds of wind driven snow as each disturbance sends waves of moisture into the mountains. Orographic forcing will be greatest across the eastern San Juan mountains given the southwesterly wind component. These should be heavier snow events which could bring some much needed recovery to the snow pack, though likely not enough to make up the large deficits. Although the timing of each shortwave is still prone to change, it appears the best chances will come Tuesday with another round on Wednesday, and an active weather pattern suggesting another round late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the rest of today and tonight. Mid-level clouds will increase across the region starting this evening as a system moves in, with rain showers expected to start at all three terminals Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.