textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Still enough lingering moisture for isolated, high based convection over the mountains and Pikes Peak region today. with lightning and gusty outflow winds a fire concern.

- Hotter and drier conditions build Sunday into next week, though enough moisture lingers over the mountains for isolated, weak and brief afternoon thunderstorms.

- Moisture and thunderstorm chances potentially return to areas along the Continental Divide from Wednesday into the end of the week, with only isolated storms over the eastern mountains, while the plains remain dry and hot.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Still a few lingering storms over the plains south of the Arkansas River early this morning, though expect activity to sink south and dissipate the next few hours, with gradually clearing skies by sunrise. For today, upper ridge builds over the Rockies, leading to much less in the way of thunderstorm activity over the region this afternoon. A few CAMs suggest enough residual moisture/instability around to pop an isolated t-storm over the mountains mid/late afternoon, though activity will be spotty and weak with lack of much upper support. Will have to watch for some locally gusty winds with any outflows, with HRRR hinting at some moderate east winds (gusts 20-25 mph) near/just north of the Aspen Acres fire in the late afternoon/early evening. Max temps will creep upward under the ridge, with 80s over the higher terrain and upper 80s to mid 90s over the valleys and plains.

Slightly hotter and drier on Sunday as heights creep upward under the ridge, with subsidence again suppressing most t-storm activity. Again, can't rule out some brief, weak convection over the higher terrain in the afternoon as low level moisture lingers, though suspect activity will be even more sparse than Saturday's meager crop of storms. Breezy east winds Saturday afternoon may create some brief periods of enhanced fire danger, mainly over the central mountains and San Luis Valley. Max temps will nudge upward another degf or two as ridge builds, warmest spots across the lower Arkansas Valley with mid/upper 90s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Upper ridge remains in place over the Rockies from Monday through much of next week, though center of the high will stay over the northern plains/upper Midwest, leaving southern Colorado with fairly deep easterly flow, which should keep temps from becoming "excessively" hot through the week. Pattern is not conducive to much in the way of thunderstorm activity, especially eastern mountains and plains, though some isolated convection may build over the higher terrain each after Mon-Wed, best chance of some light rainfall will be back toward the Continental Divide. Subtle differences in ridge position from mid-late week lead to a rather low confidence forecast in the return of thunderstorm activity to the area, with GFS and it's ensemble members wetter than rather dry looking Euro/Euro Ensembles. NBM leans wetter for Thu/Fri, though won't be too surprised if forecast trends drier the next few days, as ridge position in general looks unfavorable for a deep plume of moisture reaching southern Colorado. Highest pops mid-late week will be along the Continental Divide, where at least scattered areas of wetting rainfall will be possible by the end of the period. Eastern mountains and plains will likely miss most activity, with just some very isolated storms over the mountains by week's end. No let-up in the hot temps expected, with 80s mountains/high valleys and 90s to near 100f plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 529 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

Isolated convection is forecast across the higher terrain this afternoon through early evening, and main push outflow across neighboring terminals, but confidence is not high enough to mention in TAF. Look for brisk E winds gusting to around 25 kts at KALS between 00z and 06z. At KCOS and KPUB, plan on gusty SE winds 20-25 kts between 19z and 03z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.