textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding continues across rivers along the eastern San Juans and adjacent San Luis Valley.

- Gusty winds expected today, especially across the plains, with gusts of 30-50mph expected.

- Unsettled pattern continues through the week and into the weekend.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 105 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Tuesday - Sunday: For the long term period, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. For Tuesday, overall quiet and dry weather is anticipated as the Sunday-Monday storm system pushes out of the region. The exception to this will be early in the day as gusty northerly winds remain in place early across the plains, along with isolated light rain showers. Past that, additional troughs may impact the region, particularly Wednesday - early Thursday and Saturday - Sunday, bringing with them increased precipitation chances and breezier conditions. Outside all of that, stable and near seasonal temperatures can be anticipated, with periods of mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with skies cloudiest as the waves pass over/near.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1033 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Upper low pressure system crossing the Great Basin and Rocky Mt region over the next 24 hrs will bring widespread rain, low clouds and deteriorating conditions across much of the forecast area, affecting the three main terminal sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Currently there is a lull in activity for TAF sites since upper low center is still located over northern AZ.

KCOS: Wind shear mentioned now through 11z. Strong northerly winds starting 15z with gusts up to around 32 kts. PROB30 for IFR conditions with -SHRA and reduced vsby 15z-18z.

KPUB: Wind shear mentioned now through 12z. Brisk westerly winds starting at 12z, shifting to northerly by 19z with gusts up to around 32 kts. PROB30 for -shra redeveloping between 17z-19z and continuing through 23z.

KALS: Strong S winds gusting 30 kts. MVFR conditions due to low cigs and showers in the vcnty.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 112 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Forecast of significant flooding remains on track for the San Juans and wrn San Luis Valley, with many locations in the mountains already seeing rainfall amounts as of late morning in the 1-2 inch range, with another 2 inches possible by late evening. Snow level did dip down to around 10000 feet this morning, but has risen toward 11000 feet at midday, with observations and webcams showing mostly rain around Wolf Creek Pass with temps in the 30s, and a few locations farther south above Platoro Reservoir have warmed into the 40s. Even a few 50s up to 9000 feet toward the NM border. Snotels have begun to show drops in SWE (Snow Water Equivalent), suggesting melting snow will begin adding to river flows for the next 12 hrs or so. Switch to snow this evening still looks slow initially, before snow level drops quickly below 9000 feet by sunrise Mon. Total precipitation amounts of 3-4 inches look on track by late morning Mon, with a large portion of this falling as rain today and tonight below about 12000 feet. Rainfall amounts in the Valley itself should be between .5 and 1.5 inches, heaviest near the mountains on the western in edge.

Runoff peak should be this evening in the mountains, before snow level falls and run-off starts to decrease early Mon morning. River stage forecasts continue to indicate significant flooding, with the South Fork of the Rio Grande at South Fork and the Conejos River at Mogote rising well above flood stage this evening, cresting overnight into early Monday morning. These high flows will then move downstream Mon/Tue/Wed with flooding likely on the mainstem Rio Grande at Del Norte/Monte Vista and Alamosa and along the Conejos River east of Mogote through the period. A river flood warning has been issued for the Rio Grande at Del Norte, and a flood watch is now in effect for the Rio Grande at Alamosa. A areal flood watch also remains in effect for all of the San Luis Valley from tonight into Tue morning, mainly for mountain runoff.

Overall, most streams and rivers will likely crest at or slightly above levels seen during the flood event last week, with moderate to major flooding likely once again.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ067-068. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ068. Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for COZ069>071.