textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures persist into our Monday, with increasing snow, rain showers, and thunderstorms for much of the area late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible over the southern I-25 corridor Monday afternoon.

- Chances for wetting rains and accumulating snowfall remain in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, though forecast qpf has decreased for some areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Water vapor imagery shows us in the northern periphery of the ridge, which has lead to some breezy winds across northern portions of the forecast area, along with some middle and upper-level cloud cover. Gusts to around 25 mph are being observed across the Pikes Peak region and our central mountains, and are likely to spread southwards into the I-25 corridor and Sangres throughout the afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 60s and 70s as of Noon, and are likely to sneak up into the 80s over the Lower Arkansas River Valley over the next few hours. Humidity values are ranging from mid teens into the 20% range for most areas. Most areas look to stay dry throughout the rest of today and into tonight, though isolated snow, rain showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over and near the higher terrain, mainly for the San Juans. Overnight lows stay mild as westerly flow weakens and becomes more southwesterly heading into Monday morning. Lows look to cool into the 30s for mountain valleys and 40s for our plains.

Tomorrow..

A low moving onshore over California throughout the day tomorrow will help to increase moist southwesterly flow aloft. This will help to spread in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening as shortwave energy passes overhead. Daytime highs look to climb back into the 60s and 70s for mountain valleys, the Pikes Peak region, and the southern I-25 corridor, with 80s for the rest of the plains. Most areas are likely to see an increase in both humidity values and chances for showers and thunderstorms, but the southern I-25 corridor may see a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions as gusty southwest winds persist into the afternoon. Have held off on highlights for now since relative humidity values look to be marginal, and on the increase through the windiest part of the afternoon. Models keep chances for showers and thunderstorms going into the evening and overnight hours on the plains, especially along and north of Highway 50. Overnight lows are looking similar to tonight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday..

Models continue to struggle with the progression of two systems and how they will interact over Colorado in the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe. The low to our southwest moves into the desert southwest by Tuesday afternoon, and some solutions absorb it fully into a larger trough digging across the Great Plains throughout Tuesday evening. GEFS members sort of show the two features merging briefly, but have started to actually break the low off again, dragging it south across the Mexico border throughout the second half of the week. This trend has influenced a decrease in qpf across much of the area, especially for southern portions of Colorado. Portions of Teller and northern El Paso county remain in favorable areas for moderate to heavy precipitation, along with possibly the central mountains, northern Sangres, and the Wets, but overall qpf has decreased somewhat. For now, chances for wetting rains and accumulating snowfall remain high, but exact numbers are still largely unknown. The Palmer Divide looks to see somewhere in the 3 to 6 inch range of snowfall at least, but much of that will be melting as it falls throughout the event. Temperatures do continue to trend cooler as the northern trough begins to have more influence on the forecast, and have kept highs mainly in the 40s for Wednesday with this package. Impacts from heavy snow still look possible over the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region, but may be more focused on downed trees and power lines, with less risk for travel concerns as road temperatures remain warm. That said, this system is cooler than the last, so the Wednesday morning commute may end up seeing snow covered roads across portions of the area.

Thursday Onwards..

We sit in northwest flow aloft on Thursday behind the departing system. Friday into next weekend looks a little less clear, as some solutions are still dealing with the low pushing into Texas, and others had already pushed it into the trough, but the general consensus keeps us in somewhat northwesterly flow aloft with active weather and a shortwave moving through around the Saturday timeframe. This pattern keeps highs in the near to slightly warmer than normal range, with daily showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Westerly winds with gusts to around 25kt are likely at each station this afternoon, and will weaken after sunset. Southwest winds increase again tomorrow afternoon, especially at KALS and KPUB. Scattered to broken middle and upper-level clouds will continue off and on throughout the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are not expected at any station today, but may be possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly near KCOS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.