textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased flash flood potential over the Aspen Acres burn scar today, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous across the area.

- Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms still drifting across the area early this morning, with plentiful moisture and weak upward forcing continuing. Still expect most activity to end by sunrise, persisting longest over the far eastern plains where low level jet may help boost activity for a few more hours. Brief break in convection Sunday morning, before mountain storms develop again starting around 19z, with activity spreading slowly over the plains and valleys from late afternoon into the evening. Precip signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar in the 00z CAMs is not quite as impressive as it was in the 12z data, as most forcing is rather weak and subtle (se surface winds are lacking in the 00z run), though much like Saturday, plenty of moisture and convection is in place, with very hard to predict outflow collisions/interactions driving convection. Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the burn scar this afternoon and evening, as rainfall amounts of over 1.5 inches fell between Beulah and Pueblo in less than an hr on Saturday, just missing the scar. Expect max temps today to cool just a few degf over mountains, as mid level heights fall slightly, while plains readings stay relatively unchanged.

On Monday, very little change in the pattern, with another round of afternoon and evening convection across the area. Will wait on another flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar to see how Sunday's convection and low level environment evolve, but may need another highlight as relatively stagnant weather persists.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Upper level high pressure drifts back westward into the swrn U.S. during the week, with mid/upper level flow becoming slightly more nwly through the period. Still not much change expected Tue, with another round of afternoon/evening storms focused over the mountains, drifting onto the plains in the evening. Weak front may then drop south south through the plains late Tue into Wed, potentially enhancing convection over the eastern mountains and across the plains on Wed, as enhanced easterly upslope winds behind the front refresh low level moisture. Max temps will drift downward a few degf by Wed, as ridge shifts subtly west and moisture increases. Slow transition to drier weather starts Thu as ridge gets far enough west to cut-off deeper mid-level moisture, but still expect the usual crop of afternoon/evening storms, most numerous eastern mountains and plains. Drier and warmer weather then in store for Friday into next weekend, though we never completely flush the moisture out of the area, so at least isolated afternoon/evening convection will continue each day, especially over the mountains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Remnant VFR cloud cover will gradually decrease this morning and still watching for the potential for some patchy MVFR stratus which is starting to develop over eastern portions of El Paso County. This is unlikely to make it into the KCOS and KPUB terminals, but will monitor trends closely. Otherwise, expect clearing skies at all three terminals with another round of thunderstorms developing over the mountains between 18-19z, and moving eastward into the TAF sites after 20-22z, earliest at KALS and later for KCOS and KPUB. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts, MVFR vis in RA, and VFR cigs will be possible with the stronger storms. Thunderstorms will pull east of the terminals by 02-03z with clearing skies returning late tonight. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086.