textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions continue tonight, with enhanced westerly flow across the lower eastern slopes bringing the potential for rapid fire growth and spread.

- Diminishing winds aloft lessens Critical Fire Weather conditions on Saturday, with passing front across the plains bringing chances of showers and storms, some of which could be strong/severe.

- A slow increase in available moisture through next week will bring increasing chances of daily showers and storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates increasing west to southwest flow aloft across the region, as another embedded short wave is translating through the broad upper trough in place across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Water vapor and GOES satellite imagery indicates a slight increase in upper level moisture with wave clouds spreading across southern Colorado this afternoon, though very dry air remains at the surface with dew pts across south central Colorado in the single digits and teens. Further east, a passing outflow boundary boosted dew pts into the 40s and 50s across the I-25 Corridor this morning, though mixing has dropped dew pts into the 30s and 40s across northern portions of the the I-25 Corridor with latest observations indicating dew pts in the single digits and teens across the southern I-25 Corridor. Dew pts further east across the plains remain in the 40s and 50s, with regional radars indicating a few showers developing across Baca county at this time.

For the rest of today and tonight, latest model data supports increasing westerly flow aloft as said embedded short wave continues across the state. Increasing westerly flow deepens lee trough/low across the plains and allows for enhanced westerly flow along the lee slopes of southeast mtns and in the gap flow areas. Gusty west winds of 35 to 45 mph, combined with continued very dry air in place, will bring the potential for rapid fire growth and spread for ongoing fires into the late evening hours, before winds become more northerly and slowly weaken overnight, as the waves associated front slides across the eastern plains. Moisture behind said front could also develop a brief shower/storm along the Palmer Dvd later tonight.

Winds aloft continue to weaken through the day tomorrow, with surface winds becoming more east to southeast through the day across southeast mtns and plains. This will help keep low level moisture in place and aid in afternoon shower and storm developing, especially across the Palmer Dvd, where a few showers and storms could develop through the late afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe storm development could continue out across the far southeast plains through the evening, with theta-e axis in place. Further west, available moisture remains limited, though with weakening flow, only seeing spotty critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain, with not enough coverage to issue any Fire Weather Highlights. However, with continued dry conditions, precautions should be taken to avoid any activities which could spark a fire.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

For Sunday, and continuing into the middle of next week, model data develops weak south to southwest flow across the region, with upper level ridging across the Rockies. This allows for a slow moistening of the atmosphere leading to increasing chances of daily showers and storms and more seasonal temperatures through the period. Precipitation over and near the higher terrain will initially be higher based, posing a dry lighting threat and the risk for more fire starts. By the middle of the week, ensemble model data indicates PWATS increasing to 100 to 125 percent of normal, bringing increasing chances of wetting rains, however, this will also bring an increasing threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the new area burn scars.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light northerly winds at the start of the TAF period will become gusty with a frontal surge, with gusts to around 25 knots anticipated. After a couple of hours of gusty winds, winds are expected to lessen in magnitude, and remain around and less than 10 knots through the remainder of this TAF period. While dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out for KCOS Saturday afternoon, with strong outflow the primary impacts to the TAF site. Otherwise, pockets of high level clouds is expected.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain light, at and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period. Along with that, dry conditions with pockets of high level clouds is anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in place through midnight tonight for the mountains, valleys and adjacent plains, as gusty winds combine with very dry conditions to produce critical fire weather conditions. Gusty winds to continue into the late evening hours across the lee slopes of the southeast mountains, with the potential for rapid fire growth and spread continuing into the overnight hours.

It will remain warm and dry over the higher terrain on Saturday but winds will be lighter, with only spotty areas of critical fire weather conditions expected. Further east, a weak front will bring increasing low level moisture to eastern Colorado, with chances of showers and strong to severe storms Saturday night. Available moisture will continue to increase across the region through the middle of next week, leading to increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms over the higher terrain will initially be higher based, posing a dry lighting threat and the risk for more fire starts. By the middle of the week, ensemble model data indicates PWATS increasing to 100 to 125 percent of normal, bringing increasing chances of wetting rains, however, this will also bring an increasing threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially across the new area burn scars.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>230.