textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger is expected for portions of the area today and tomorrow.

- Shower and thunder chances continue today and tomorrow, with a few strong to severe storms possible mainly for areas north of Highway 50.

- A cold front comes through in part Sunday night, and then again on Monday night, ushering in better chances for showers and weak thunderstorms, light snow over the San Juans and the central mountains, and much cooler temperatures through the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Today and Tonight..

Showers and outflow boundaries have mostly cleared the area as of midnight, with only a few lingering down on our far southern border. Temperatures are still in the 60s and 70s across the area, with dewpoints in the 30s on the plains and teens to 20s over the high country. We'll start out our Saturday with poor overnight moisture recoveries, and temperatures will warm quickly as southwest flow aloft increases over the region. Downsloping winds look to reach gusts of 30 to 40 mph over the San Luis Valley and our eastern mountains, and several fire weather zones that have critical fuels remain under a Red Flag Warning for today. The central mountains, Sangres, Wets, Fremont, Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Las Animas, Bent, and Baca counties are expected to see several hours of 25 mph wind gusts and humidity values below 15% this afternoon. Daytime high temperatures are expected to be much warmer than normal once again as well, with mountain valleys, the Pikes Peak region, and the southern I-25 corridor all climbing into the 80s, and the rest of our plains warming into the 90s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for our northernmost areas as well, some of which may be strong to severe. Chances for strong to severe storms will be highest over El Paso, Kiowa, and Prowers counties. These areas are outlined for a marginal risk for severe storms tomorrow, with damaging winds and 1 inch hail possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday..

Models try to bring a cold front south across our plains Sunday, but for now, models hint that southwest flow will win for most of the day. For this reason, high fire danger is expected and storms are not. If models begin to trend towards an earlier arrival of the front, the forecast focus towards chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. For now though, fire weather and strong southwest winds with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected for Sunday, along with another day of much warmer than normal temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees less than today, but still well into the upper 70s for mountain valleys, and mid to upper 80s on the plains. Models finally bring the front southwards across our plains after sunset when southwest flow ebbs, which will allow for gusty north winds over portions of the plains Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms may end up forming up over the Palmer Divide on Sunday as well, especially if the front hangs up along this area. Storms here could be strong to severe More widespread coverage of showers and storms will be expected over the high country, and generally along and west of I-25, and along and north of Highway 50, overnight Sunday behind the cold front.

Monday Onwards..

The trough axis continues to approach throughout Monday, which will keep very gusty winds over the high country Monday morning. Models bring the trough axis and strongest jet support for high winds across our forecast area by late morning, and winds should begin to weaken through the afternoon. For now, highlights are not expected, but High Wind Watches may end up being necessary if models trend any strong with winds late Sunday night into Monday morning, especially over and in the lee of the eastern mountains. Light snow is also expected over the higher peaks of the Continental Divide, with 1 to 2 inches possible over the San Juans, and 2 to 4 inches possible over the central mountains from Sunday night through Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage on Monday on the plains as well, especially north of Highway 50. The front gets hung up again along our southern border, which will keep temperatures in the 80s over eastern Las Animas and Baca counties. Both areas may see another round of critical fire weather conditions on Monday. All other areas on our plains should be in the 60s and 70s with continued chances for showers and weak thunderstorms. Models finally bring the front through more earnestly Monday night into Tuesday. Models keeps high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms. As northwest flow weakens towards the end of the work week, temperatures begin to climb back into the normal range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 513 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Diurnal flow is expected today at all 3 taf sites, however winds will likely be modestly gusty during the afternoon time period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222-225-228>233-235-237. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ222-225-228>237.