textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag conditions continue into this evening at many locations, then a cold front brings cooler air and lower fire danger overnight into Thursday.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions are possible again on Saturday as winds increase.

- Moisture returns to the eastern mountains and plains from Sunday into early next week, with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Hot across the area today, with record maxes reached at COS (98f so far/old record 97f) and tied at PUB (103f) as of 215 pm. Surface trough/initial piece of the main cold front has backed westward on the plains through the day, which has knocked back temps just a couple degf behind the boundary. Front will drift slowly westward into the evening, before main cold front arrives toward midnight, with gusty (30-40 mph) north winds behind it from I-25 eastward. On Thursday, max temps will run 10-15 degf cooler on the plains, while mountains and valleys see maxes drop only a couple degf. Winds on Thu should fall off noticeably area-wide as upper jet lifts slightly northward and winds aloft weaken, though still enough mixing for afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph over mainly the central mountains/upper Arkansas Valley. A few models hint at some weak convection over the southern Sangres late in the day, though with low levels still rather dry over the higher terrain, suspect activity will be weak and isolated at best.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Upper ridge builds over CO on Friday, with modest low level moisture return (dewpoints in the 40s) over the plains as surface flow swings around to the se. Should be enough moisture to pop off at least isolated afternoon convection along and east of the mountains, with storms pushing onto the plains by early evening. Max temps will rise as ridge builds, with 80s/90s widespread valleys/plains. Upper wave moves into the central Rockies on Sat, with increasing w-sw flow across srn CO during the day. Pattern looks likely to produce high fire danger across most of the area, with perhaps a couple storms possible near the KS border late as the dryline sharpens up. Max temps climb back toward 100f on the plains as mixing increases, with 80s/90s again most lower elevations/valleys. Upper ridge flattens from Sunday into early next week, with series of weak waves and accompanying cold fronts bringing a slow cooling and moistening trend to mainly the eastern mountains and plains. Expect a general increase in showers and thunderstorms through the period as result, though unfortunately bulk of precip will stay east of rather parched Continental Divide zones.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will be predominately w-nw this afternoon and evening, with a few gusts 20-25 kts until 01z-03z. Overnight, cold front moves through KCOS around 05z and KPUB near 06z, with nly winds gusting 30-40 kts behind the boundary. Winds then diminish and turn back s-se 11z-15z. At KALS, brief period of gusty east winds possible after 11z, as cold air east of the Sangres gets deep enough to spill westward into the San Luis Valley.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Red Flag conditions will persist into this evening across much of the area, then winds diminish after sunset with slowly rising humidity. A dry cold front will bring a period of gusty north winds to the plains overnight, though humidity values should stay above critical thresholds.

On Thursday, relative humidity remains low across the area, though winds at most locations weaken considerably. Main area of critical fire weather conditions Thu afternoon will be limited to the central mountains, where gusty downslope winds (20-30 mph) will spread from the Sawatch Range into the upper Arkansas Valley. Will upgrade the watch to a Red Flag Warning here, but will cancel any highlights farther south as winds will be lighter, with only some brief critical conditions in a few spots over the La Garitas and nrn San Luis Valley.

More widespread fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday, as southwesterly winds will increase by the afternoon, and humidity values will fall to under 10 percent. The main question will be how far east the drier air mixes and the eastern extent of the high fire danger.

Spotty, critical fire weather conditions will continue Sunday into Tuesday for the Central Mountains.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>225- 228>230. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220. Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.