textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued record to near record warmth Sun and Mon with elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday and the possibility fore critical fire weather conditions across much of southern CO Mon

- Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance for showers in and near the mountains with accumulating snow across the Continental Divide Wednesday

- Still some potential for a stronger system late week into next weekend, though storm track remains a major question

UPDATE

Issued at 807 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Quick update to allow Red Flag Warning to come down as humidity have increased and/or winds decreased across the area and Red Flag conditions are no longer being met. -KT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 123 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Deeper mixing and associated winds have been a little slow to develop today, though winds on the far eastern plains ramped up quickly this morning, with gusts over 30 kts across Baca County. Just starting to see winds stir and temps rise at many locations as of 1 pm, and expect a continued increase in winds and temps through the remainder of the day. Red Flag Warning has been slow to verify, though will keep it in place for now as driest/windiest part of the day is still ahead for many locations. Low chance (less than 20 percent) of a shower in the Pikes Peak region late this afternoon into early evening as area of mid-level moisture moves across, though expect any activity to be windy sprinkles/virga at most. Winds remain rather breezy through the night, keeping overnight low temps above freezing on the plains, with 20/30s mountains and high valleys.

On Sunday, flat upper ridge remains over the area, with record/near record maxes possible at many locations. Main question is potential for critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon, as atmosphere mixes deeply once again, with gusty west winds late in the afternoon. Have held off on a fire weather highlight for now for a couple reasons; 1) Winds aloft are slightly weaker than Sat, with probabilities for surface gusts over 25 mph less than 50 percent at most lower elevations and 2) Where winds will be strongest over the mountains, humidity stays between 15-20 percent. Areas to watch for the highest fire danger will be the upper Arkansas Valley from Pueblo westward to Salida, and the southern San Luis Valley, where we could see an hour or two of critical conditions late in the day.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 123 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Initial upper trough over the western U.S. begins to push into the nrn Rockies on Mon, with second wave still off the California coast. Winds aloft begin to slowly pick up across srn CO through the day, with 7h flow of 30kts across the region. Pattern suggests Red Flag Conditions possible over interior valleys and portions of the plains, and will hoist a Fire Weather Watch for these areas, as DESI probs of 25 mph or greater gusts are over 75 percent over the mountains and along I-25. Will have to re-evaluate far eastern portion of the watch tomorrow, as at least some late-arriving guidance suggests a drop-off in wind speeds toward the KS border. Could see just enough moisture for some isolated high-based convection (maybe a TS near the NM border?) Mon afternoon over the mountains, but NBM pops seemed too high, especially across lower elevations, so cut precip chance back a bit, keeping most activity across the higher terrain. Max temps again near record levels, with readings near 90f on the plains.

Cold front moves through the region Mon night/Tue morning, with cooler and moister conditions across the area through the day. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances increase over the mountains and along I-25 Tue afternoon and evening as upward vertical motion strengthens ahead of approaching short wave trough, with fairly widespread precipitation over all but the far sern plains Tue night into Wed. Snow level remains fairly high (8000-9000 ft MSL) over the mountains through the period, while over the plains, cold air deepens enough that we could see a brief rain/snow mix along I-25 and across the plains for a few hours during the coldest part of the morning early Wed. QPF for the event looks to range from a quarter to half inch over much of the higher terrain west of I-25, with amounts up to a quarter inch along the Interstate. A few convectively favored spots on the Continental Divide could see between a half inch and an inch of precip by late Wed, while the ern plains miss much of the evening, with amounts here of less than tenth. Max temps both Tue and Wed will be much cooler than the past few days, but still around seasonal averages.

Warmer and drier weather returns Thu, before next trough approaches for Fri into the weekend. Still a big spread in strength, timing and track of this system, with 28/12z deterministic model runs showing a pronounced shift to the north of Colorado with the storm track. Forecast has cooler temps and low/moderate pops for Fri/Sat as a first guess, but suspect the forecast will bounce around a bit the next few days until system gets closer to the West Coast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the next 24 hours.

KALS...

Gusty west winds to around 30 knots will linger for a few hours, weakening and turning more SW overnight, though some gustier winds will be present about 5 kft or so. Mid level clouds cover will increase until late Sunday morning. Breezy west winds set in near the end of this forecast period.

KCOS...

Gusty southwest winds, around 30 knots, will remain at the terminal for a few more hours, weakening overnight. Winds will shift for a few hours before settling with a northerly component and scattered mid-level cloud cover. Though surface winds will weaken tonight, there will be some stronger flow above about 2 kft. Winds return to southeasterly by mid-afternoon Sunday.

KPUB...

After a brief lull in winds this evening, northwest flow will pick up again along with some mid-level cloud cover. Winds turn more westerly Sunday morning, remaining near 10 knots or so. Currently not expecting enough mixing overnight tonight to warrant any LLWS, but will monitor incoming data for needed amendments between now and 06Z TAFs. Best chance would be between about 06Z-15Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Corrected Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

March 29th Records... Pueblo: 86 in 1943 Colorado Springs: 75 in 1967 Alamosa: 69 in 1943,1986,2015

March 30th Records... Pueblo: 83 in 1946,1986,2010 Colorado Springs: 78 in 2010 Alamosa: 71 in 2015

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ221-222-224-227>237.