textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of snow expected along the Continental Divide through Thursday with a few showers possible Pikes Peak region Thursday night. Snow accumulations across the mountains remain light.

- Another round of mountain snow and lower elevation rain for southern areas Friday through Saturday morning.

- Windy warm and dry conditions with high fire danger possible Monday through Wednesday with the potential for very strong winds on Tuesday with high end Red Flag conditions possible.

- Several rounds of wind driven snow possible across the Continental Divide next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

A round of snow will continue impacting the central mountains and western slopes of the southern Sangre De Cristos at times overnight. Webcams show occasionally heavy snow impacting Monarch Pass, though accumulations based on ski resort snow stake is only around 2 inches so far. Current snow should decrease here around midnight then ramp up again for a brief 2-3 hour window around 12z as next minor impulse in southwest flow moves through. Overall HREF and NBM probabilities of over 6 inches of snow is less than 40% in spotty areas across the central mountains with the NamNest being the only operational model to advertise around 6-8 inches in spotty areas along the spine of the Sawatch range. Will hold off on any highlights for now but will continue monitoring radar/sat and webcams closely as models could be a little too far north with the axis of heavier QPF. The remainder of the southern mountains could see a few inches of snow later tonight, but precipitation amounts should be lighter compared to farther north.

Otherwise, it will warm a few more degrees on Thursday across the plains with highs in the 60s. A few showers could push off the mountains during the late afternoon/evening across the Pikes Peak region, but these should be mainly rain or a brief rain/snow mix with little to no accumulation, especially given the warm conditions.

The next system will be moving into southern CA by Thursday night spreading more moisture into the Continental Divide towards Friday morning. Overnight lows should stay mild with only some light snow across the higher mountains out west towards dawn.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Models continue to trend farther south with the main energy associated with the upper low as it moves across the Desert Southwest and NM Friday through Saturday morning. North of highway 50, suspect precipitation amounts will be under 0.10 and some areas could see a only a trace to a few hundredths at best across El Paso county. To the south of highway 50, precipitation amount will range from 0.1 to 0.4 (greatest across the eastern San Juans and southern Sangre De Cristos). Probabilities of over 6 inches of snow is still quite low in the national model blends with probabilities of over 6 inches under 40 percent in spotty areas. Suspect QPF in the NBM is a tad overdone still and have blended them down a bit, especially across northern areas. This will be an all rain event for the plains given the warmth of the system. Snow levels may drop to around 6500 feet by Saturday morning across the Palmer and Raton Ridge, but amounts look light and greatest over the Raton Ridge where Fisher's Peak could see a couple inches through Saturday morning.

The system exits eastern CO on Saturday with dry conditions returning. Temperatures rebound back into the 60s to around 70 across the plains on Sunday with 50s across the valleys and 30s and 40s for the mountains. The next Pacific trough enters the west coast on Monday setting up strong southwest flow across CO early next week. Several days of critical fire weather conditions will be possible Monday through Wednesday as dry southwest flow with several shortwaves ejecting across CO bring rounds of strong winds. Tuesday will be the highest impact day with latest NBM showing probabilities of wind gusts of 58 mph or higher (lower elevation high wind criteria) up to 80% across the San Luis Valley and most of the southeast plains. Probability of over 75 mph wind gusts (mountain high wind criteria) are up to 80% across the mountains and lower east facing slopes. Mean humidity levels are running around 10-15% in from NBM means, and it is conceivable that they could be lower given pattern recognition. This could put any Critical Fire Weather conditions into the higher impact category. This is still many days out and prone to change but will be monitored closely. Wednesday will continue windy and dry with the potential for another repeat critical fire weather day, though wind gusts may not be quite as high as the upper jet shifts southward.

Meanwhile, the mountains, especially along the Continental Divide, will see rounds of wind driven snow as each disturbance sends waves of moisture into the mountains. Orographic forcing will be greatest across the eastern San Juan mountains given the southwesterly wind component. These should be heavier snow events which could bring some much needed recovery to the snow pack, though likely not enough to make up the strong deficits. Although the timing of each shortwave is still prone to change, it appears the best chances will come Tuesday with another round on Wednesday, and an active weather pattern suggesting another round late week. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1027 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours, with mid-level clouds cover increasing through today and tonight. Winds this afternoon will remain out of the southwest at KALS, and southeast at KCOS and KPUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.