textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet, active weather today through Thursday with widespread heavy rainfall and Flash Flood Watches in effect for much of the area.

- There is a fair amount of uncertainty with precipitation amounts...while the forecast favors higher amounts, a few model solutions have significantly less rainfall

- Cooler through Thursday with mainly 50s and 60s for highs.

- Drier and warmer conditions for the weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Update to current forecast for today, with scattered to numerous showers spreading northeast across the southern tier through the southeast plains through the morning. Moist southerly flow aloft to help develop scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the afternoon, with widespread precipitation developing from south to north through the evening and into early Wednesday morning, as the upper low lifts north and east across northern New Mexico. While can rule out locally heavy rain, through out the day, the heaviest rain area-wide is expected later tonight and through the day Wednesday. However, we will keep the current Flood Watch in place, hopefully to avoid confusion in changing the timing.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently...satellite and radar imagery early this morning show widespread shower activity spreading across much of southern Colorado. These showers will continue lift northeast across the region through sunrise. Temperatures are currently in the 50s to 60s across the Plains, and will likely hold steady through morning.

Today and tonight...an upper level low will slowly move out of southern California and across Arizona through tonight. Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward ahead of the upper low across Colorado leading to continued periods of widespread moderate to at times heavy rainfall. The main focus for today will be south along the New Mexico border, lifting northeast along the Kansas border by this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will drop south along the I-25 corridor turning winds northerly by mid to late morning. This will likely limit rainfall across the Pikes Peak Region down in the Pueblo. Low level surface flow will shift more northeasterly late tonight into Wednesday morning. This will help showers fill in across the Plains toward Wednesday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will reach into the 60s across the region, with a few low 70s near southeast Kansas border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

There is still a LOT of uncertainty among the various model solutions through Thursday with the handling of the remnants of Polo and the track of the upper low. The ECMWF continues to track the upper low further west, while the GFS is further southeast. There is better agreement beyond Thursday with high pressure impacting the region over the weekend into early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...as mentioned, there remains a high degree of uncertainty with the upper low storm track, gradient, and QPF amounts. There are two scenarios that remain plausible during this period...the ECMWF, some CAM guidance, and several ensembles tracking the upper low along with the remnants of Polo north out of New Mexico, and across southern Colorado before shifting the system east Thursday evening. These solutions are by far the wettest solutions, most with widespread 2 to 4 inch amounts focused along the central/southern I-25 corridor and Raton Mesa region. Strong upper dynamics, deep upslope flow, and moisture wrapping around the system look to produce a period of heavy rainfall Wednesday into Thursday morning over the areas mentioned above. This activity looks to shift eastward Thursday afternoon and clear into Kansas overnight Thursday. Wind in these solutions would be possible Wednesday night Thursday morning, but not as strong as the further east guidance.

Looking at the other scenario, the GFS, NAM 12km and other various AI and ensemble guidance are clustered around a drier solution. They track the upper low out of New Mexico and into the Central Plains. A majority of the guidance in this camp have much stronger north downslope winds Wednesday night into Thursday morning, limiting precipitation amounts along the I-25 corridor (very similar to our winter storms). These guidance have the highest totals out east along the Kansas border. QPF amounts with these solutions vary from a half inch or less, to around an inch and a half over the Raton Mesa and near the Kansas border. In addition, a strong gradient would set up, with very strong winds possible off the Palmer Divide and across the Plains north of Highway 50. Wind gusts in excess of 40 to 50 mph would be possible.

As for the the forecast...did not stray from the NBM guidance, which is similar to the ECMWF camp, with widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall during this period, mainly along and south of Highway 50, with the highest amounts along the Wet Mountains and southern Sangre de Cristo Range. Just know that if the storm track is further east (like the GFS), rainfall amounts could be significantly less!

Temperatures do look to remain cool, with 50s and 60s both Wednesday and Thursday across the region, and 40s to 50s for overnight lows. A Flash Flood Watch remain in effect for this period for most of the county warning area, including the Aspen Acres burn scar.

Snow levels look to remain high; above 12 kft through this period. Several inches of snow are possible across the higher peaks.

Friday through Tuesday...upper level high pressure looks to build across the Great Basin over the weekend into early next week, with generally broad northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures look to warm, and much drier air will work into the region. Expect any residual showers on the Plains to have cleared by Friday morning, with dry conditions through early next week anticipated. Temperatures will warm back through the 70s and lower 80s. A couple of dry cold fronts Saturday and Monday will bring minor cool downs to the Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

At KCOS and KPUB, a lull in precipitation is possible this morning, with mainly VFR cigs and some brief sprinkles at times. Showers move back into the area this afternoon, with periods of MVFR conditions under heavier showers possible. Rain becomes steadier and heavier overnight into Wed morning, with MVFR conditions prevailing.

AT KALS, occasional showers expected today, then steadier/heavier rainfall overnight into Wed morning. Cigs/vis will be occasionally drop to MVFR levels today under heavier showers, then MVFR conditions prevail this evening and overnight with heavier rainfall.

There will be a low chance (10-20 percent) for a thunderstorm at all terminals from this afternoon into the overnight hours, though haven't included a mention in any taf as activity looks isolated at best.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067-068. Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for COZ069>071. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>075-077>080- 083-086>089-093>099. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Thursday morning for COZ076-081-082-084-085.