textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong/severe storms possible on the plains south of the Arkansas River Mon afternoon

- Warm and dry Tue, then hot on Wednesday, with most of the Plains at or above 100 degrees, and high fire danger over the mountains

- Cooler Thu, then warmer weather and a chance for thunderstorms returns late week into next weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Weak upper wave crossing srn Colorado this afternoon, and with well-timed clearing, CAPE over the mountains has risen into the 500-1000 J/KG range already, while values in the 400-800 J/KG range are forecast for the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains by late day. Scattered storms already underway across the high terrain as of 130 pm, and expected storms to continue to develop and spread eastward onto lower elevations from mid-afternoon into the evening. Doesn't appear we'll have quite enough instability for severe storms, though one or two stronger storms could produce 45-50 mph winds and large amounts of small hail, especially over the mountains/Palmer Divide/Raton Mesa. Weakening activity lingers into the evening, then precip ends at most locations by midnight with skies slowly clearing. On Monday, west-northwest flow aloft over the area, with some drier air working into the mountains, especially along the Continental Divide by afternoon. On the plains, nose of 50 plus degf dewpoints pushes northward along/west of the KS border, with CAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG developing by afternoon. 0-6km shear rises into the 40-50 kt range, suggesting if storms develop, they'll likely become severe, with large hail initially, then more of wind threat as the push toward the KS border by 00z. Have bumped up pops somewhat versus blended (NBM) guidance over the plains as a result, while dry air farther north and west limits storm coverage/strength to isolated/weak, mainly over the ern mountains. Temps should climb back toward seasonal averages most locations with 70s/80s widespread.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Building wrn U.S. ridge nudges eastward on Tue, bringing drier/warmer conditions to all of srn CO as low level moisture is shunted eastward. Enough w-nw flow aloft over the area to produce elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions Tue afternoon, especially over the nrn San Luis Valley and across the central mountains/Upper Arkansas Valley. Max temps Tue bump back up into the 90s over the plains, with 70s/80s mountains/valleys. Hottest day of the week then expected Wed, as area remains on the edge of the wrn U.S. upper ridge, while reasonably strong (30-50 kts at 7h-5h) winds aloft maximize downslope warming. Forecast soundings continue to suggest NBM forecast maxes are slightly too high, though still expect almost all the plains to be over 100f, with perhaps some readings near 105f across the lower Arkansas Valley. Fire danger will be high area-wide on Wed, with critical conditions over the mountains and valleys potentially creeping into the I-25 corridor late in the day. Have held off on issuance of a fire weather watch for now given potential fuels updates on Mon, though expect many zones from I-25 west to eventually need a highlight Wed afternoon/evening.

Cooler on Thu as cold front sweeps through the region, though initial low level moisture return looks paltry, so dry forecast will persist Thu afternoon and evening. More active pattern then develops Fri-Sun, as series of weak troughs interacts with increasing moisture over the ern mountains and plains through the period. General broad-brush of scattered afternoon/evening pops each day looks fine for now, with a general warming trend into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

KALS...Showers and thunderstorms initially over the mountains, will move across the San Luis Valley mid/late afternoon into the evening. Will carry a prob 30 for -tsra for much of the afternoon, with MVFR cigs/vis possible under any heavier activity. Showers should clear the terminal by 03z with partial clearing overnight. There is a small chance of fog development towards 12z Tue if precipitation falls at the terminal.

KPUB and KCOS...Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains today, pushing off into the adjacent plains mid/late afternoon-early this evening. Will carry a prob30 for -tsra at both terminals from mid-afternoon into the evening with brief MVFR cigs/vis possible. Shower chances end 03z-06z with VFR cigs overnight into early Mon morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.