textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Diurnal showers and storms will persist across the region, with flash flooding concerns continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Severe storms remain possible this afternoon across the southeast plains, with a westward expansion of severe storm threat towards the eastern mountains on Wednesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances persist on Thursday with gradual downturn in available moisture Friday and Saturday.

- Another slow increase in storm activity for Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly flow aloft across the region with the center of a large upper high in place across central New Mexico. Water vapor imagery also indicates a weak embedded wave translating through the westerly flow across the northern Rockies, with GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicating PWATS running from 100 to 130 percent of normal from west to east across the region at this time. Regional radars have scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, with a few storms pushing across the immediate adjacent plains at this time.

Latest model data continues to support storms developing over the higher terrain and pushing east across the plains, where dew pts in the 50s to lower 60s and just enough shear support the threat of a few severe storms producing strong winds to around 60 mph and hail to near an inch in diameter. With the continued available moisture, stronger storms will also be capable of producing heavy rain, leading to the potential for flash flooding, especially for storms developing and moving across the Aspen Acres burn area. Storms to diminish from west to east through the evening, with the passing northern Rockies wave sending a weak backdoor front across the plains, which could keep convection ongoing across the far southeast plains through the overnight hours.

An uptick in severe storm coverage is expected on Wednesday, with enhanced upslope and low level moisture behind the passing backdoor front, combined with more west to northwest flow aloft expected as upper high continues to lift north and east into the Four Corners region through the day. Model data continues to support PWATs increasing between 120 and 150 percent of normal, combined with another weak embedded short wave, to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms over the higher terrain through the late morning and afternoon, with storms intensifying as they push into the I-25 Corridor and southeast plains through the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain, strong winds in excess of 60 mph and hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter will be possible across the plains on Wednesday. This, along with the threat of training storms across the eastern mountains has prompted the issuance of another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres from noon through 9 pm.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge remains progged to drift north and west keeping modest north to northwest flow in place across the Central Rockies. This will tend to slowly diminish available moisture and keep most of afternoon and evening storms tied closer to the higher terrain. By Saturday into Sunday, flow aloft slowly becomes more west to southwest, as broad upper troughing across the West Coast pushes the upper high back south and east into the Southern Rockies. This will bring another slow uptick in available moisture and storm coverage, especially for the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd. West to southwest flow aloft remains progged across the region through the middle of next week, keeping chances of the showers and storms across the region, with the best coverage across the higher terrain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 526 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Some isolated -tsra at the 3 taf sites at the very beginning of this time period (especially KPUB) then VFR through the rest of the period. Will likely see more thunder later tomorrow afternoon at each of the taf sites. The rain may be heavier tomorrow and we may see stronger winds and possible hail.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ079-080-086.