textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- First round of light to moderate snow expected for the Continental Divide Wednesday through Thursday.

- Second storm system will bring another round of rain and snow showers to southern CO Friday into Saturday morning.

- Windy conditions early next week with the potential for more Continental Divide snow and high fire danger conditions for the southeast plains Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Upper low across northern and central California will drop southward tonight putting CO under strong southwest flow aloft. Pacific moisture will push into the Continental Divide with snow showers increasing through the day Wednesday, as an upper jet and associated disturbance ejects across CO ahead of the system out west. Temperatures rebound across the southeast plains as lee troughing develops and kicks eastward tonight as the wave crosses the mountains. Temperatures will warm the most across the southern plains south of highway 50 where high temperatures will climb back into the mid to upper 60s in increasing south to southwest flow. The plains north of highway 50 maintain more of a south to southeasterly wind component keeping highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Mountain valleys will see breezy southwest winds mix down in the afternoon with highs in the 50s.

Snowfall increases in the afternoon and evening with snowfall totals in the 3 to 7 inch range across the eastern San Juans and Sawatch and Mosquito range by early Thu AM. Quick check of HREF and National Blend of Model probabilities show odds of 24 hour snowfall amounts exceeding 6 inches (low end advisory amounts) stays under 40 percent and probabilities of 8 inches or more remain well under 20%. All in all, winter weather advisories do not look warranted at this time given these low probabilities. Low temperatures Wednesday night will remain on the mild side and precipitation chances east of the mountains will be non-existent as downslope flow dominates.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Pacific low across central CA continues to drop southward through Thursday night with troughing out west moving into the Great Basin. Another round of shortwave energy kicks out across CO. After a brief lull in precipitation Thursday morning, it should pick up again Thursday afternoon and evening with a few showers spilling out into the adjacent plains Thursday evening, especially north of the Arkansas River. Thursday will be warm again with highs in the 60s across the plains, 50s valleys, and 30s and 40s for the mountains. Snow across the mountains will remain light, perhaps another inch or two through Thursday evening. Any showers that spread off into the adjacent plains will remain primarily as rain. Precipitation amounts will be very spotty and light across the lower elevations with not enough to be considered a wetting precipitation event.

More active weather spreads in for Friday as the CA low pushes eastward through the Desert Southwest and across NM into west TX/OK by mid day Saturday. Emphasis for the greatest amount of precipitation stays south of the Arkansas River and amounts do not look all that substantial. National Blend of Models keeps odds of greater than 6 inches of snow at less than 20% across the eastern San Juans and southern Sangre De Cristo mountains. This will be another warm source region storm, so the southeast plains will see a chance of rain, though amounts are looking light at this point, perhaps up to 0.10 to 0.15 north of highway 50, and the potential for close to a half inch of liquid along the southern CO border. Temperatures cool back down again for Friday though highs will still be around or a little above seasonal normals.

The weather pattern remains active into early next week with continued chances of snow for the Continental Divide. Temperatures warm back up as southwest flow increases ahead of another storm system moves on shore out west which ejects across CO during the Mon/Tue timeframe. This will be another warm and windy event for the plains with the potential for critical fire weather conditions, especially on Tuesday as the system crosses the mountains. We could be dealing with high wind or near high wind criteria across the plains Tue based on pattern recognition. Meanwhile, the Continental Divide should pick up more snow as southwest funnels Pacific moisture into the Continental Divide. Best orographic forcing should focus heavier amounts across the eastern San Juan mountains. There are still some timing/amplitude differences this far out and details are still murky, so trends will continue to be monitored closely. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 424 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected for all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Increasing mid and high clouds are expected through the period. Southwest winds will gust from around 20 to 25kt at KALS and KCOS, with southeast winds developing for KPUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.