textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A healthy moisture tap will lead to daily showers and thunderstorms across the region through Friday. Best focus will be over our southern mountains and plains.

- Area burn scars will need to be monitored for potential flash flooding.

- Warmer and drier over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Currently...Upper low pressure system centered over the Great Basin was producing deep southwest flow across the Four Corners region, drawing abundant moisture up into the western half of Colorado. Isolated convection has developed across the southern mts and border this afternoon, while the remainder of the area was still enjoying mostly sunny skies. As of 1 PM, temps had warmed into the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s for the plains.

Tonight through Wednesday...Models indicate that the upper low over the Great Basin will open up and eject to the northeast through the evening, while the upper ridge overhead begins shifting to the east. This will allow the broadening of the moisture plume across the entire width of CO, and where initially the focus is along the SW mts and southern border tonight, activity will be allowed to spread further east and north starting tomorrow as daytime heating works on the available moisture. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be likely to categorical across all of the higher terrain and southern border by tomorrow afternoon, and scattered across the plains, but by tomorrow evening convection will be likely to at times categorical, 80% or greater, across much of the forecast area including the eastern plains. QPF amounts range from 1-2 inches of rain for the SW and S mts, and southern border, to .25 -.75 of an inch across much of the eastern plains and northern sections of the county warning area. Area burn scars will need to be monitored due to the widespread nature of this event, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the SW mts starting Wed afternoon and lasting through Thu night since that area will be the target area for up to 2 inches of new rainfall, on top of what has fallen in the past week.

Overnight low temps tonight are forecast to drop into the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. High temps tomorrow will be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, with 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s for the plains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Thursday and Friday...As the upper ridge axis remains to the east of CO, and another upper low center sits over the CA Baja, the moisture plume will remain across NM and CO for Thu, leading to another day of widespread precip. Thu is expected to be the coolest day of the extended period, with highs forecast to only warm into the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to upper 70s for the plains. The Flash Flood Watch for the SW mts will remain in place through Thu evening. On Fri the upper pattern starts to shift slightly, and the upper low to the southwest begins to lift out, crossing the state through the day, This pattern shift will push the moisture plume to the east, but as the upper disturbance crosses Colorado, it will tap into available moisture and provide for one more day of shower and thunderstorm activity for the higher terrain and adjacent plains. High temps will warm a couple degrees over Thu readings.

Saturday and Sunday...The upper shortwave pushes east, and a ridge of high pressure builds in for both Sat and Sun. Long range models indicate only isolated afternoon and evening convection, mainly tied to the higher terrain, and temps warm back up into the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Monday...Models are trying to latch onto another upper trough approaching for Mon, drawing more moisture into the state and producing another round of precipitation. Stay tuned. Moore

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 529 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

KALS...showers will increase in coverage across the San Luis Valley this evening and prevail overnight. CIGS and VIS will be reduced. Heavier rain will likely move into the terminal with embedded thunderstorms possible from mid morning into the afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible at KCOS through 02z. Generally VFR conditions overnight with CIGS around 7kft to 10kft. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon at both terminals.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ068.