textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible over portions of the eastern plains, mainly north of Highway 50.

- A slow increase in available moisture brings a slow increase in daily shower and thunderstorm coverage into the middle of next week.

- Storms over the higher to be dry, initially, leading to increasing concerns for new fire starts.

- Warmer and drier pattern setting up late next week and into the next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderating westerly flow across the region, as last nights embedded wave continues to translate across the High Plains and upper level ridging builds across the Southern Rockies. Last nights passing wave and front brought in low level moisture across the plains and into Aspen Acres burn area, with dew pts in the 40s to lower 50s helping to goose up humidity levels through the morning. Further west, dew pts remain in the single digits and teens across the higher terrain along and west of the Continental Divide this afternoon, with low level moisture starting to mix out across across eastern mtns early this afternoon. Fortunately, with the weakening flow aloft, we are only seeing a few spotty area of critical fire weather conditions across the Central and Southwest mtns at this time. Further east, dew pts are in the 40s and 50s across the plains, regional radars indicating a few showers and storms popping up across the higher terrain of Park, Teller and Jeffco/Douglas counties at of 1 pm. Also, current radar data is not indicative of any strong smoke plumes disseminating from the Aspen Acres burn area at this time.

For tonight and tomorrow, latest model data keeps generally weak westerly flow in place across the region, as upper level ridging across the Southern Rockies builds into the Four Corners region. Weak flow aloft keeps the best available moisture over eastern mtns and plains, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across the higher terrain of eastern mtns from the late morning into the afternoon. Storms push across the immediate adjacent plains and across the far southeast plains in the afternoon into the early evening hours. Storms over and near the higher terrain to be higher based, producing more virga and gusty outflow winds than wetting rains. This, along with the potential for lightning and new fire starts, will be concern for those fighting the ongoing wildfires, as well as for area Emergency Management, with lean available resources. There will be enough shear in place this afternoon to support a few strong to marginally severe storms, especially across the Palmer Divide into northern portions of the southeast plains. Latest CAMS are also indicating the potential for elevated convection across the Raton Mesa later this evening. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies into the overnight hours, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Highs on Sunday to be generally around seasonal levels in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains, and in the 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest model data continues to support a slow moistening of the atmosphere with available moisture streaming into the Rockies withing weak south to southwest flow aloft, as upper level ridges builds into the Central Rockies. Ensemble mean data from ECS, GEFS and GEPS are indicating PWATs increasing to 100 to 125 percent of normal across the region, peaking Tuesday across western Colorado and Wednesday across eastern Colorado. This will support increasing chances and coverage of daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the work week. While PWATs do increase, sustained low level moisture return, especially across the higher terrain, is lacking, with still some concerns for gusty outflow flow winds and lightning hampering fire fighting. While widespread heavy rainfall does not look likely, there will be a flash flood concern for recent burn areas, as it only takes one strong storm over the wrong place to cause problems, when dealing with higher terrain burn areas. With the increasing moisture and increasing chance of convection, temperatures look to be around seasonal norms for the early to middle part of the week.

For the end of the work week into next weekend, model data is trending towards warmer and drier conditions developing once again, with modest west to northwest flow developing across the Rockies as upper level ridging retrogrades back across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. Decreasing available moisture will lead to temperatures warming back above seasonal levels, and increasing fire weather concerns, though generally weak flow aloft looks to keep critical fire weather development at bay.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 535 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds this evening will steadily lessen and become variable and light at all three TAF sites. Winds will start to slightly increase again tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops, especially for KCOS and KPUB, where gusts to around 20 knots is expected. Beyond that, dry conditions with periods of high level clouds is anticipated through this TAF period. With that said though, impact from a thunderstorm can't be ruled out for both KCOS and KPUB early in this TAF period, and again tomorrow afternoon. If a thunderstorm were to impact either site, strong outflow winds would be the primary hazard.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.