textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening across the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa.

- Another round of afternoon showers and storms expected Monday.

- Patter change taking place through the week, though uncertainty still exist, especially for Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Tonight: For Sunday night, some showers and storms will be ongoing for portions of the area, with quiet weather for most. Overall, southwesterly flow, with increasing moisture, will be in place as a high pressure sits to the southeast of the region. While forcing with this pattern will be weak, stronger surface forcing across the Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide will be ongoing as breezy southerly winds materialize today and persist into the evening in response to lee troughing. With weak broader forcing, most areas will remain dry. Then across the Raton and Palmer, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected thanks to the additional surface ascent over the terrain features. With that all said, any showers and storms present through the evening hours are anticipated to dissipate by late evening as diurnal instability wanes, with dry conditions then prevailing into Monday morning. As alluded to, winds at the surface will be breezy overnight. This is in response to the tighter pressure gradient from the lee troughing in place, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 20-35 mph for much of the area. The strongest of those winds is expected across the Raton Mesa and eastern plains regions, where the gradient will be tightest. Beyond all of that, with the increasing moisture, partly cloudy skies will persist through the night, with mild temperatures for many. Speaking of temperatures, given the windy, and somewhat cloudy, conditions, much of south central and southeastern Colorado will remain above seasonal low values, with the plains in the low 60s to low 70s, the valleys in the 50s, the mountains in the low 40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow: Heading into Monday, another day with active weather is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Moist southwesterly flow will continue over the region as the aforementioned high pressure remains just to the southeast. Given the moisture plume, modest forcing, and increasing diurnal instability, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to blossom along the higher terrain by mid afternoon, and slowly drift east across the valleys and eastern plains through late afternoon. The main hazards with any of the stronger storms will be gusty outflow winds to around 50 mph and frequent lightning. In addition, like Sunday night, lee troughing with a tightening gradient will be in place, bringing another breezy day to the area. With that, sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 20-35 mph are expected, with the strongest of those winds again across the eastern plains. Otherwise, another day with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures is anticipated. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will warm to above seasonal values given downsloping winds, with the plains in the low 90s to low 100s, the valleys in the 80s to low 90s, and the mountains in the mid 50s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Monday Night - Saturday: For the long term period, active weather continues, though with notable pattern changes taking place. While uncertainty still exist, especially towards the end the week and start of the weekend, current thinking based on ensemble model guidance is that the high pressure will begin to flatten through the week, with potentially more troughing influencing the area by the weekend. Overall, this pattern will keep precipitation chances elevated, as moisture never gets fully cleared out, though could certainly be lowered behind any passing waves. Along with that, cloudy skies and breezy conditions would be expected to persist, especially with any wave and frontal passages that take place. Then looking at temperatures, given the influence from this pattern, fluctuating temperatures are anticipated with cold front passages, with signals pointing to a dip in temperatures midweek, increasing by the end of the week, and dipping again through the weekend. With that all said, a lot will depend how the troughing and waves evolve, so continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds at the start of this TAF period are expected to increase this afternoon as diurnal mixing becomes established, with gusts up to around 20-25 knots expected. Along with that, mid to high level clouds will increase through the afternoon and persist into tomorrow morning. Beyond all that, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail for this TAF period. With that said though, can not rule out an isolated shower or storm impacting KCOS this afternoon and early evening, but confidence is very low, less than 10%, on this, so have left out of this TAF product.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.