textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening across the region, a few may become strong to severe across the far Eastern Plains.

- Hot, dry and windy Saturday through Wednesday with high fire danger across much of southern Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows widespread cumulus development across the Mountains into the I-25 corridor. Radar shows increasing shower and thunderstorm development, mainly from the La Garita range, northeast into the Palmer Divide. Temperatures are warm, with 80s across the Plains and San Luis Valley.

Rest of today and tonight...an embedded upper wave in increasingly southwest flow aloft will allow for continued shower and thunderstorms development this afternoon. The initial activity over the Mountains, will spread east into the Plains by late afternoon to early evening. Shear continues to increase, with around 30-35 kts of 0-6km shear, and modest SBCAPE values around 1200 j/kg across the Plains. As storms shift east into the Plains and encounter more favorable conditions, a couple may become strong to severe. For areas generally north of Highway 50 in Bent, Prowers and Kiowa Counties, surface winds are forecast to back more southeasterly, enhancing shear and low level helicity values. Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible over this area. There is also a low tornado threat, especially if low level flow backs southeasterly. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue track east across the Plains this evening, clearing into Kansas after midnight. Outside of the areas mentioned above, hail to nickels and wind gusts to 50-55 mph may accompany stronger storms. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and lower 60s across the Plains, with 40s across the San Luis Valley.

Saturday...hot and dry conditions return to southern Colorado beginning on Saturday, as flow from the southwest ushers in dry air. PWAT values are forecast to fall to near 0.5 inches. In addition, widespread southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts in excess of 35 mph are forecast. Humidity values will fall, to near 10 percent for much of southern Colorado by the afternoon. Temperatures will also warm, with 90s to near 100 degrees across the Plains. Red Flag Warnings are in place for the Mountains and San Luis Valley. There are concerns across the Plains, where low humidity values and strong winds are forecast. But, many areas saw spotty heavy rainfall this past week and it may take a couple days for fuels to dry out. That being said, not all areas saw rainfall, and given the conditions, any outdoor burning should be done with great caution.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

There is decent agreement among the various models and ensembles through much of the extended period. The upper pattern will favor a trough across the western states, with persistent dry southwest flow across Colorado into the middle of next week.

Saturday night through Wednesday...persistent southwest flow aloft will favor continued high fire danger across southern Colorado. Humidity values will remain low, with values at or under 10 percent each afternoon, with poor humidity recoveries overnight. Winds will remain gusty each day, with southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each afternoon. No precipitation is forecast during this period across southern Colorado. Daytime highs will remain hot, with 90s to lower 100s each afternoon, with overnight lows mainly in the 50s across the lower elevations. A Fire Weather Watch is in place for Sunday morning into the afternoon, mainly for the Mountains and San Luis Valley. The Plains continue to reach criteria as well, but as mentioned above, fuels are in question given recent spotty heavy rainfall. By Monday, we may need to rethink issuing fire weather highlights on the Plains as fuels begin to dry out.

Thursday into Friday...the upper pattern still favors southwest flow across southern Colorado, however, energy in more southerly flow may move northward across the Colorado-Kansas border. This may lead in an uptick of showers and thunderstorms near the border. There are model differences out this far in the forecast, and confidence is low in shower and thunderstorm occurrence at this time. Temperatures will remain hot, with 90s to lower 100s on the Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

KALS...generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few showers may be possible this evening, which may briefly limit VIS and CIGS. Very strong winds are forecast for Saturday by late morning.

KCOS and KPUB...showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening at both terminals, with the highest probabilities at KCOS. Reduced VIS, CIGS and very gusty winds may accompany storms. VFR conditions will prevail overnight into Saturday. Gusty winds will spread across both terminals by late morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High fire danger will spread across southern Colorado beginning Saturday, and continuing through mid week. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for tomorrow for the Mountains and San Luis Valley due to low humidity values and gusty southwest winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday for much of the same area. Dangerous fire weather conditions will also exist on the Plains, however, recent spotty heavy rainfall may temper briefly dry fuel conditions. Given the hot temperatures, low humidity values and gusty winds, we will have to monitor conditions on the Plains, especially during this prolonged dry, windy period. All areas on the Plains should be treated with caution with any outdoor burning activities, as not all areas saw rainfall, and high fire danger still exists.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220>225. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ220>222-224-225.