textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions across the plains today, with rain and snow showers over the mountains

- After a break Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions return to much of the region on Thursday and potentially Friday - New storm system arrives Fri/Sat bringing a chance for rain and mountain snow, along with widespread below freezing temperatures possible Saturday and Sunday mornings

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Upper level low over nrn AZ this morning, with widespread rain and snow showers over the wrn half of Colorado ahead of the system. Web cams show snow over Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes as of 1 am, though roads so far look mostly wet to slushy in spots. With snow showers persisting into the morning, won't be too surprised if passes along the Continental Divide eventually see some slushy/icy roads by sunrise, especially Highway 160 from South Fork up to Wolf Creek. Mountains and valleys east of the Continental Divide will see scattered rain/snow showers through sunrise, though precip here will be fairly spotty and light.

Upper low forecast to move across Colorado and weaken today and tonight, with rain/snow showers continuing across the mountains and valleys through the day. Could even be a brief thunderstorm over mainly the higher terrain as lapse rates steepen under the upper low/trough. Accumulating snow looks limited to the higher peaks, especially along the Continental Divide, where storm totals of 3-6 inches are possible by this evening. Along I-25 and across the plains, strong west winds develop late this morning, continuing into the afternoon, as upper jet moves overhead and surface low spins up near the KS border. Expect gusts of 35-45 mph to be common from the Sangres eastward, perhaps a few 50 plus mph gusts in the enhanced gap flow region near Walsenburg. Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the plains/I-25 for much of the day, as humidity will fall toward 10 percent in the afternoon. Windy across the Sangres and San Luis Valley/Upper Arkansas Valley as well, but relative humidity here will be much higher, tempering fire danger somewhat.

Tonight, cold front sweeps through the plains in the evening, ending the critical fire weather threat as humidity increases substantially behind the front. Window for showers along I-25 is fairly small, limited to areas near the Palmer Divide/El Paso County during the evening, with a least a threat of a brief mix or period of snow under any heavier showers near the top of the Divide as snow levels fall toward 7k feet. Shower chances diminish quickly farther south, as best dynamic lift stays north. Precip ends quickly after midnight as low weakens and shifts east, with just a few sprinkles/flurries left by sunrise.

On Wednesday, dry, breezy and slightly cooler conditions expected, with a few pockets of elevated fire danger through Fremont County as gap winds increase during the afternoon. Haven't issued a highlight here yet, as duration and areal extent of any critical conditions looks limited.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

High fire danger returns to the area on Thursday, as southwest flow aloft strengthens ahead of next upper trough digging into the wrn U.S. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for most of the region for Thu afternoon/evening, as vast majority of model and statistical guidance suggest wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range over the entire area. Trough then swings through the central Rockies Fri, quickly shifting into the plains on Sat. While system will be colder than the past few, trend in model/ensembles has been for a more northern track, keeping best lift and precip over the nrn half of Colorado, with lighter amounts south. Ahead of the system, may still see some critical fire weather conditions on the plains Fri ahead of the cold front, though frontal timing has slightly accelerated, with boundary near the NM border by late Fri afternoon in some of the 00z deterministic guidance. Still too early for any highlights, but expect another potentially active fire weather day for at least portions of the region. Best window for precip looks to be Fri afternoon/evening, mainly over the mountains, with trend toward a quicker trough ending precip by early Sat. Still looking at the potential for widespread below freezing temps Sat and Sun mornings, with readings in the teens and 20s possible mountains and high valleys, mainly 20s on the plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Strong southwest flow aloft is over the region and will remain over the region during this period. Gusty southwest winds will crank up after 15 UTC tomorrow and will be quite strong during the afternoon; 30-40 knts from the southwest. Winds will gradually go to northwest late in the afternoon then north-northwest during the evening then decrease.

There is a very low chance of a passing shower tomorrow, especially at KCOS and KALS. There may be some brief periods of haze due to some possible blowing dust due to the strong southwest winds.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237.