textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire danger is expected across our southern plains today, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits.

- 50 mph winds are expected over the southern mountains and the San Luis Valley, which may lead to blowing dust over the valley, blowing snow over the mountains, and travel concerns resulting in both cases.

- Showers will be possible north of Highway 50 and west of I-25, with thunderstorms mainly across the Pikes Peak region.

- A Freeze Watch remains in place for El Paso and Kiowa counties tonight, and frost may be possible for other portions of the plains as well.

- Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas tomorrow and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

For the plains..The elusive cold front has sagged back south since sunset, and is now sitting between Springfield and Campo across Baca County. This front and where it ends up again this afternoon will be the driving factor in today's forecast across the plains once again. North of the front and west of I-25, stratus has begun to develop up against the terrain as of midnight. USAFA is reporting ceilings down to 2,000ft, and the Colorado Springs airfield is starting to see lower scattered decks as well. Models continue to suggest that rain will be possible as upslope continues across the mountains/plains interface throughout this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible across the Pikes Peak region again this afternoon, though severe development is not expected. That said, lots of shear will present over the region today, so if any areas clear out and warm up, chances for a stronger storm or two may be possible, especially over the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. The main forecast concern on our plains today though will be our high end Red Flag Warning across our southern plains. Las Animas and Baca counties are both included in this warning, and southern portions of Bent and Prowers counties may see periods of critical conditions as well depending on how far north/east the front gets shoved this afternoon. Over these areas, single digit relative humidity values and southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected. The strongest winds and lowest humidities will be over Baca County this afternoon, which will lead to the possibility for extreme fire behavior for any new or existing fires today. Please use extra caution and take care not to start a wildfire today. One last note for the plains, gusty winds over our southeast plains may also lead to blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions. Once the sun sets, the front *finally* pushes itself completely southwards, allowing all areas to cool and moisten through the overnight hours. This will put an end to fire weather concerns for a few days. Overnight lows will be chilly in our post frontal airmass though, and areas north of Highway 50 may see hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. El Paso and Kiowa counties are both under Freeze Watches for tonight through early Tuesday morning, and temperatures down into the upper 20s will be possible. Another tier of counties or two may also see the potential for frost depending on clearing through the overnight hours.

For the high country and the San Luis Valley..Models bring the trough axis through our southern mountains between 9 AM and Noon or so, which will be the windiest timeframe for the San Juans, the San Luis Valley, and the Sangres. The NBM continues to be the only outlier suggesting high wind criteria, so have continued to trend towards other model consensus, which keeps winds below warning levels across the area. The San Luis Valley is likely to see gusts upwards of 50 mph or so though, especially if any showers survive off the mountains and help to enhance gusts coming down the terrain. Areas of blowing dust are likely across the Valley today, especially with any localized stronger winds from decaying showers. Over the mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of wind driven snow will be possible for the San Juans and the central mountains. Though totals will be low, degraded visibility and hazardous travel conditions may be possible from blowing snow, especially over mountain passes. Snow comes to an end for both range by around midnight or so at the latest.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday..

The front is finally through us and will stay through us for Tuesday and Wednesday. We stay in southwest flow aloft as messy troughing sits out west. This pattern will keep temperatures cooler than normal, and it will keep precip chances over us as well. Models bring shortwave energy through the trough and over us on Tuesday, which will help to develop weak showers and thunderstorms over the high country on Tuesday afternoon, and better chances for widespread rain on the plains overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Daytime highs look to stay in the 60s both days, with decent chances for precipitation both days.

Thursday Onwards..

Models are not in great agreement about the pattern late week onwards, but the general consensus suggests some type of northwest flow with a trough passing to our north. This looks to bring temperatures back into the near normal range for Thursday and Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures by the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast nearly every afternoon, especially across the high country.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

KALS: Gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day, gusting 25-30 knots this morning and closer to 45 knots by 16Z or so. With the strongest gusts, there will be a period late this morning through mid afternoon with the potential for periods of blowing dust and reduced visibility. After 22Z, there is also a low- end chance that rain showers will move off the terrain and pass bu the terminal, but chances are low enough to leave as PROB30 for now.

KCOS: Winds will turn SE later this morning, gusting to 25 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the north- northwest after 20Z or so, bringing precipitation and gusty outflow to the terminal. Outflow from storms will reach 35 knots or so. Precip departs the immediate area prior to 00Z, though gusty winds and MVFR-IFR cigs will remain the rest of the period. Winds will turn northerly later this afternoon as a frontal surge moves in.

KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the period. Winds turn ESE later this morning, with a lower-end chance for thunderstorms to pass by the terminal during the afternoon. Winds will generally gust to 25 knots or so, with any outflow from thunderstorms gusting to about 35 knots. Winds will turn north later in the day as a frontal surge moves in.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233-237.