textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected again this afternoon and evening, with flash flood risk continuing for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Showers and storms widespread again Tuesday and Wednesday, with an uptick in severe storm chances on the plains both days. Still a heavy rain rain/flood risk as well.

- Gradual downturn in thunderstorm chances for the end of the week into the weekend, though threat of storms never completely goes away, with at least isolated activity over the mountains possible each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Currently, convection was exiting the region early this morning, with last few showers drifting into Kansas shortly after midnight. Satellite/radar trends plus CAMs all suggest convection is done for the night, and will go with a dry forecast for all locations into Monday morning. Upper high remains over NM today, with little change in the pattern over Colorado. and expect another round of afternoon/evening convection moving generally eastward through the area. Heavy rain again the main threat, and will continue the flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres scar, as storm environment is similar to the fast few days. Severe threat today looks limited by weak wind shear, best chance may be over Kiowa County where low/mid level winds are a tad higher, though any stronger storms will have at least a low end gusty wet microburst threat. Max temps look similar to yesterday as mid-level heights show little change.

On Tuesday, weak cold front drops south through the plains late in the day, bringing increased forcing for storms as low level winds, improving effective shear along and east of I-25. Surface dewpoints come up as well, leading to CAPE in the 1k-2k J/KG range east of the Interstate. SWODY2 marginal risk on the eastern plains looks good for now, any higher risk will depend on where low level boundary and subsequent pooling of higher instability end up, as 00z models point more toward KS than ern CO for the strongest storms. Farther west, usual crop of afternoon/evening storms will roll east off the mountains, and will again need to watch for heavy rain over the Aspen Acres burn scar, especially late day as front and outflow potentially push moisture back toward the high terrain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Expect a slightly stronger westward push of moisture Tue night into Wed behind departing central plains convection, with deeper moisture and instability along and east of the mountains during the day, though potential for early morning stratus could hamper instability initially. Overall, expect Wed to be perhaps the most convectively active day of the week, with heavy rain threat over much of the region and at least a low end severe threat along and east of I-25. Cooler temps expected Wed with clouds and moisture, and maxes will end up near/below seasonal averages for a change at many locations.

Upper ridge drifts west and expands northward for the end of the week, before potentially flattening and drifting back eastward early next week. Overall, expect a slow drying/warming trend from Thu into the weekend, though enough recycled moisture will be around for daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Plains could see still see some storms Thu/Fri, before most activity retreats into the higher terrain over the weekend. Max temps will drift upward through the period, with 80s/90s widespread and even a few 100 degf readings returning to the plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 523 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Another round of thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around 18-19Z and drift off into the adjacent valleys and plains through the afternoon and evening. All three terminals could see -TSRA on site after 22-23z through 01-02z. VFR cigs/vis in -TSRA with gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts will be possible. Vis could briefly drop into the MVFR category if a stronger storm impacts the terminals. Otherwise, expect diurnally driven winds through mid afternoon to become dominated by thunderstorm outflows through the early evening. Winds will become light and diurnally drive again after 05-06z. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086.