textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today and Monday, with elevated fire weather conditions possible Monday south of Highway 50.

- A storm system is forecast to move across Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday, with periods of heavy mountain snow, and moderate to possibly heavy rainfall on the Plains.

- We quickly dry out and warm back up for Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows mostly clear skies across southern Colorado. Temperatures have called into the 40s for most of the Plains, with a few degrees further cooling through sunrise.

Today and Tonight...upper level high pressure will slowly progress east across Colorado through tonight. This will help temperatures to warm nicely this afternoon, with 70s and 80s across the Plains, and 60s for the San Luis Valley. Residual moisture and weak instability may lead to a few showers across the San Juan and La Garita Mountain ranges this afternoon, with activity dissipating this evening with loss of daytime heating. Elsewhere, the Plains look to remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley will see 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Models remain in good agreement through the extended period, with shifting QPF maxima Tuesday into Wednesday on the Plains.

Monday...the upper level ridge across Colorado will shift eastward into Kansas by late afternoon, with increasing southwesterly flow spreading across the region. An embedded disturbance will bring increased shower activity to the Continental Divide by the afternoon, with a couple inches of snow possible under the heavier showers. This shower activity will spread northeast across the Palmer Divide, into northeast Colorado during the evening. There could be a few rumbles of thunder as they pass across the Palmer Divide. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for areas mainly south of Highway 50 with low humidity values, and occasional wind gusts near 25 mph. We will continue to monitor conditions and fuels over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain warm on the Plains, with 70s and 80s, while the San Luis Valley see 60s for highs.

Tuesday through Wednesday...two upper system look to impact Colorado for mid week. The first will move in from southern California, with moisture moving east in southwest flow, while the secondary system drops south out of the Northern Rockies. The northern system will send a cold front south into the Plains Tuesday morning, with low level flow turning northeasterly upslope through the day. Meanwhile, moisture in the southwesterly flow spread across the region, with model guidance developing widespread rain and snow by Tuesday night and through much of Wednesday. The latest guidance has shifted the heaviest QPF amounts north into the Palmer Divide, and areas north of Highway 50, especially Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, models are developing a surface low along the New Mexico border, enhancing low level upslope flow, and shifting the focus south along the Eastern Mountains and Raton Mesa for Wednesday. Colder air will be advecting into the area with snow levels falling to near 6 kft by Wednesday morning. Several inches of snow will be possible across the Palmer Divide, with a rain/snow mix for the lower Arkansas River Valley on Wednesday. The Central and Eastern Mountains will likely do well, with a foot or more of snow possible, with less amounts over the San Juan Range. Details are still a bit up in the air and storm tracks could change, but guidance has been consistently indicating a half inch or more of QPF during this period. As mentioned, NBM guidance likely too warm Wednesday with high temperatures (50s on the Plains), with a majority of the ensemble and deterministic guidance in the 40s. As the surface low tracks eastward Wednesday afternoon, low level flow will shift more northerly, cutting off upslope Wednesday evening, with precipitation weakening overnight into Thursday morning. As conditions clear, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s on the Plains heading into Thursday morning.

Thursday through Saturday...upper ridging is forecast to develop along the West Coast on Thursday and longwave troughing shifts east across the Ohio Valley. This will put southern Colorado under broad northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will rebound quickly, with highs Thursday and Friday back into the 70s and 80s. Any showers will remain confined to the Central Mountains where orographic upslope will likely produce daily afternoon and evening showers. By Saturday a cold front looks to arrive on the Plains, with increased chances for shower and thunderstorms and another cool down.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, through most of this TAF period. With that said, high-res model guidance shows the potential for a brief window this morning of gusty winds to around 20 knots developing as stronger winds aloft are briefly pushed to the surface. Otherwise, dry conditions with increasing mid to high level clouds are anticipated through this TAF period.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, through most of this TAF period. With that said, there is potential for a brief window this afternoon of gusty winds to around 25 knots developing from outflow winds from virga under high based showers. Otherwise, dry conditions with increasing mid to high level clouds are anticipated through this TAF period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.