textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening over the far eastern plains. Large hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected over large portions of the region today.

- Mainly dry and warm Sunday, with elevated fire weather concerns for the mountains and more severe storms out east.

- Pattern continues into next week. Fire concerns for the higher terrain, and daily showers/thunderstorms for the plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Today...

An upper-level shortwave trough will pass over our area today, bringing with it much more active weather and several concerns for the forecast.

Over the eastern plains, a lee trough will develop at the surface during the afternoon. This will couple with hot temperatures (mid- 90s to around 100F) and a southerly wind that should bring some higher dewpoints to the CO/KS border. This, along with the advancing shortwave. will provide ample ingredients for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Specifics on storm mode, longevity, and most likely impacts will depend on a few factors, namely the timing of the upper wave passing over and how much moisture actually makes it back onto the eastern plains of Colorado. As usual, forecast models are somewhat inconsistent with moisture content at the surface, and therefore available instability. That being said, even the HRRR, which tends to underdo dewpoints, still has mid-50s by early in the afternoon across our far eastern counties. The more aggressive models, such as the NAM Nest, have dewpoints hovering right around 60, which is more than enough to get storms to form and intensify. Across the CAMs, CAPE looks to quickly increase the further east you go, with 800-1000 J/kg over I-25 by mid-afternoon and anywhere from 1500-2000 J/kg along our eastern border. Bulk shear should be anywhere between 35-45 knots as well. In all, looking at storm potential for today into this evening, all severe hazards are on the table, including large hail, gusty and potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and a lower-end threat for isolated tornadoes.

That being said, severe storms will only be possible where storms actually manage to form. With quickly decreasing moisture closer to the mountains, coverage over the I-25 corridor will be isolated, with only a few smaller storms possible. Anything that makes it further east will quickly intensify, with better coverage closer to the KS border. This will be one of those "all or nothing" sort of days, where storms may initially struggle to form in our area, especially if the upper wave comes in later than expected, but anything that manages to fire should be pretty strong.

Meanwhile, critical fire weather conditions are expected across the entirety of our higher terrain, clear out to the I-25 corridor and some adjacent areas. This is due to the mentioned lack of moisture further to the west, coupled with dry, hot conditions and gusty southwest winds with plenty of downsloping. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of the area, 11am-10pm.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Hot again on Sunday, and generally drier. Highs will be similar to today's, if a few degrees lower. Meanwhile, west winds continue aloft, pushing most of the moisture away from our CWA, though gusts should be less frequent. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected over the higher terrain and some of the mountain valleys.

Sunday Night into Monday, another shortwave disturbance will glance by to our north, sending a weak front across the eastern plains. The influx of higher-dewpoints, coupled with the boundary, will likely net us a few hours of thunderstorms during the evening hours and into the early overnight. These storms will likely line up on the boundary, becoming strong to severe with wind gusts being the main impact concern.

Moving into next week, long-term models remain mostly consistent in the evolution of the synoptic pattern. A high pressure center will set up south of Colorado, with westerly flow aloft into our region and a few shortwaves passing over throughout the week. Over the higher terrain, expect critical fire weather conditions almost every afternoon, with temperatures remaining a bit above average and intermittent gusty winds. Over the eastern plains, the passing shortwaves will provide lift while ESE surface winds bring in moisture. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated each afternoon into evening, primarily close to the Kansas border.

The pattern breaks down later in the week, with models becoming much less consistent on our next incoming system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 538 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Winds to be generally light through the morning. Stronger winds will develop around midday before becoming gusty south southwest 15-30kt by 18Z. Most convective storms will be east of the terminals, with severe storms expected across the southeast plains. There is a chance of these storms creating downburst winds that reach PUB, yet forecast confidence remains too low to include that in the forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Still expecting a very active week, fire weather-wise, across the region.

Today: Critical fire weather conditions become much more widespread across the region today. Above average temperatures will coincide with gusty west-southwest winds and plenty of downsloping, leading to RH values in the teens to single digits over the mountains, and only slightly higher further east. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of our forecast area, 11am to 10pm.

Sunday Onwards: Hot temperatures and breezy west winds will continue throughout the week. The mountains will see continued dry surface conditions and intermittent wind gusts, leading to more critical fire weather conditions each afternoon, mainly over the central mountains but spreading towards the San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas at times as well.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>225-227>233. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ220-222>224.