textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong to severe storms today and Friday across the eastern plains, with large hail and strong winds the primary hazards.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions return this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Today and Tonight: Thursday brings another potential round of afternoon and evening showers and storms. Westerly flow will remain in place across the region, bringing increase flow and orographics. While dry conditions are expected early in the day, this pattern will give way to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For the mountains and valleys, general Summer type thunderstorms are expected, with lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds to 40 mph expected. Across the eastern plains, richer moisture will be in place, and while some mixing is anticipated during the afternoon hours, this moisture combined with 40-50 knots of shear, could allow for storms to become strong to severe as they push eastward off of the higher terrain. Given higher cloud bases, strong outflow winds to 65 mph would be the primary hazard, though isolated instances of large hail to 1 inch will be possible. Another area of potential storm initiation may be along a cold front as it sags southward across the eastern plains. Given increased moisture behind this front, and the shear in place, at least transient supercells will be possible, with large hail up to 1.5 inches and strong winds to around 65 mph the primary concerns. With that all said, most showers and storms are expected to dissipate heading into the evening hours, though with isolated showers and storms still lingering through the night. Outside of all of that, breezy conditions will be in place during the day, especially for the San Luis Valley, with gusts to around 20 mph expected, and partly cloudy skies persisting throughout the day. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below seasonal values during the day, and mild and near seasonal overnight. With that, for highs, the plains will be in the 80s to low 90s, the valleys in the 80s, and the mountains in the 50s to 70s. For lows, the plains will be in the 50s to low 60s, the valleys in the 40s to low 50s, and the mountains in the 30s to 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Friday: For the end of the work week, active and stormy weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. Westerly to southwesterly flow will be in place, along with persistent orographics. Dry conditions are expected early in the day, but showers and storms are anticipated to blossom along the higher terrain by mid afternoon and push eastward across the valleys and plains. More typical Summer storms are expected across the mountains and valleys with lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Across the plains, another round of strong to severe storms is possible given better moisture quality across this localized area, with large hail and strong winds the primary hazards. As instability wanes in the evening, showers and storms are anticipated to dissipate. Beyond all of that, gusty afternoon winds and partly cloudy skies are expected areawide. As for temperatures, a warming trend begins, with much of the region warming back to seasonal values.

Saturday - Monday: Heading into the weekend and into early next week, active weather continues, but with fire weather concerns. Southwesterly flow will develop and persist over the area, bringing strong winds and drier air. With increasing winds, and drier air and associated lower humidity values, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected during this period. Confidence is fairly high (around 70%) on this pattern evolution, given strong and continued support and agreement from ensemble model guidance. Otherwise, as alluded to, windy conditions with mostly clear skies is anticipated. Temperatures will continue the warming trend, with above seasonal temperatures expected, with triple digit temperatures for portions of the eastern plains.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Continuing into the front part of the midweek period of next week, a pattern change takes place, though with active weather continuing. Southwesterly flow will remain, however, a large ridge of high pressure will be in place across the central/midwest parts of CONUS. This flow will start to advect in better moisture, particularly at the midlevel. Given this, shower and thunderstorm chances will start to increase again. With that said though, dry and windy conditions persist for western portions of the forecast area, potentially bringing additional days with critical fire weather conditions. Outside of all of that, more windy days and partly cloudy skies are anticipated. Looking at temperatures, slightly above seasonal values continue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1043 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

KALS: Winds weaken overnight, gaining a west component by morning. Gusts pick up to around 25 knots, with showers and thunderstorms moving through the valley after 20Z or so. Strong outflow gusts and MVFR cigs will be possible through the end of this forecast period.

KCOS: Mainly southeast flow overnight, but will have to monitor for any outflow from passing storms to the north. Low chance for brief periods of thunderstorms prior to 15Z, with more storms moving through the area Thursday afternoon and early Thursday Night. Wind gusts from thunderstorms could reach 40 knots at times, with MVFR cigs. Otherwise, mostly VFR expected outside of some high-MVFR near showers and storms.

KPUB: Gusty west winds around 20-25 knots, weakening later tonight with lower clouds in MVFR range setting in. Southeast flow returns Thursday morning, with another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected into the evening. Gusty outflow winds, rain, and brief reductions to vis all possible.

Left all thunderstorm activity as PROB30s for now, since coverage will be scattered across the area. Storms should move relatively quickly, leaving outflow winds as the most likely impact, followed by rain, lightning, and hail. Will have to monitor for needed updates, as outflow boundaries may interact and make things more variable.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220-222>225.