textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry for most locations today, with snow continuing over the Continental Divide through tonight.

- Snow will end on Friday along the Continental Divide. Temperatures will remain warm Friday through Monday, with the warmest highs on Sunday.

- High degree of uncertainty for mid next week with the evolution of an upper system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 223 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Most locations across the mountains and mountain valleys remain dry at this time, with any precip development well to the west and southwest. Mid and high level cloud cover have thickened and even lowered here recently, a sign that we are beginning to the feel the affects of the approaching system. Think we have at least another few hours of drier weather until the precip spreads east over the higher terrain later this morning.

Upper ridge in place to the west will shift east today, however dampen some. Meanwhile, mid level energy will propagate over the region and assist with increasing ascent and moistening of the column. The drier air currently in place will help to limit overall precip development for most locations, but should see snow really expand in coverage and intensity over the Continental Divide by late morning into midday. Again, this drier air will limit precip today, especially over the mountain valleys and plains. By later this afternoon, forecast soundings do indicate further moistening of the column that could support weak precip development into the evening. If this precip were to occur, the warm thermal profile in place will keep any development mostly rain. However, additionally cooling to the wet bulb could support some flurries, especially over the mountain valleys.

Snow over the Continental Divide continues later today into tonight, but with flow shifting from more of southwest component to a west northwest direction, should see snow intensity lower and then shift more to the central mountains. Will see forcing increase once again late tonight into early Friday morning, as another stronger wave approaches. While light, to occasionally moderate, snow is expected, amounts in general don't support any winter headlines at this time. Again, mainly dry weather for most of lower elevations this period, along with warmer temperatures. In this setup, will see 700mb temps increase. Did increase high temps today a couple of degrees but didn't increase too much given the fair amount of cloud cover likely over much of the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 223 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Not much change to the extended forecast, with differences arising late in the period with the handling of an upper low. The ECMWF has the system tracking well to the south, while the GFS moves the low across New Mexico. Therefore, confidence for mid next week is low.

Friday...models have trended the upper shortwave traversing the area south, moving it from Utah, southeast into New Mexico through the day. We are still anticipating snow along the Continental Divide, with the heaviest snowfall shifting south into the San Juan Range. Snow accumulations over the San Juan look to range in the 3 to 6 inch range on Friday, with 1 to 3 inches across the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains. There could be a few snow showers pop up across the Sangre de Cristo Range as well, with minor accumulations possible on the highest peaks. Dry conditions are forecast across the Plains. Afternoon highs will continue to be warm, with upper 50s to lower 60s on the Plains, and near 50 across the San Luis Valley.

Friday night through Monday...upper level high pressure will fill in behind the departing shortwave Friday night, with snow ending over the Mountains. Overnight lows will fall into the 20s and 30s across the region, with teens over the San Luis Valley.

Dry weather will prevail through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will also remain warm, especially Sunday and Monday. Saturday will see highs rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. As the upper ridge shifts east Sunday into Monday, enhanced southwesterly flow will spread across the region. Mixing will help boost temperatures on Sunday, with 60s to a few low 70s on the Plains, with highs near records. Winds will also be gusty along the lee slopes of the Eastern Mountains Sunday, with elevated fire weather conditions possible during the afternoon. This will need to be monitored. Overall, temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler, but still well into the 60s for most of the Plains. There could be a few snow showers move into the Continental Divide late in they day Monday, with little to no accumulation expected.

Tuesday into Thursday...models begin to diverge greatly during the later half of the extended period. The ECMWF and GFS both have upper systems, but have significantly different storm tracks. The ECMWF takes the upper low well south, across northern Mexico, and keeps southern Colorado mainly dry, with the exception of periods of light snow for the Continental Divide. The GFS takes the upper low much further north, across central New Mexico, with more widespread precipitation wrapping around the system as it ejects northeast into Kansas. Given the low confidence in storm track, did not stray from the NBM guidance, with low pops on the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures look to cool as well, with mostly 50s by mid week. Mozley

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 322 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions and mainly dry weather are expected at all sites this forecast period. Mid and high level cloud cover will lower throughout today, but again, remain VFR. There is a low chance for a sprinkle or even flurries at all sites late this afternoon into the evening. Think there is a higher likelihood for dry weather, and so have maintained dry TAFs at this time. If this precipitation were to occur, will need to monitor the possibility of lower ceilings developing across ALS later tonight. Lighter winds will persist at all sites this period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.