textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms and locally heavy rain possible LATE this afternoon into the evening hours over parts of the forecast area.

- Cooler tomorrow, with a good chance of convection over the eastern plains tomorrow evening extending into the overnight hours of early Thursday morning.

- Hot again Friday, but a bit cooler for the weekend, then even cooler for early next week with showers and storms continuing.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The main concern in the short term is the threat of showers and thunderstorms, some strong with heavy rain, extending for the El Paso/N Pueblo area eastward out to Kiowa county. Strong storms will be possible in this above mentioned area, but the heavier rain threat will likely be over the greater Kiowa county region late this evening.

First, SPC has pushed the marginal westward to E Pueblo/E El Paso county area eastward. This looks reasonable as a band of CAPE and some shear are noted over this region later today. Secondly, the CAMS have been showing some rather impressive 1 hour rainfall amounts this evening over the far eastern plains, mainly in the greater Kiowa county region. The guidance has been pretty persistent on keeping these rather high qpf values run and run. Have bumped up the QPF over this region and we have issued a mesographich describing the threat for late this afternoon into the evening hours.

Another area of showers and storms is expected to occur mainly this afternoon and early evening along the CO/NM-OK border areas.

Over the remainder of the region, the convective activity will be more isolated. Although I cannot rule out some heavy rain over the Aspen Acres burn scar, the probability is too low for a flash flood watch.

Tomorrow...Seasonable temperatures are expected this day and not expecting too much during the afternoon time period. The best chance of precip prior to 6 pm tomorrow will be over the southern Sangres.

Tomorrow night...and interesting scenario develops as the guidance has rather high pops over all of the southeastern plains tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. forcing for this precip is associated with a short wave in the developing WNW flow aloft developing over the region. The NBM POP numbers looked a bit overdone to me, and have decreased these values to scattered values for most of the evening /overnight time period.

The moisture late tomorrow over the AA burn scar may be of higher quality, and later shifts may need to issue a flash flood watch for the AA Burn scar for the Wed afternoon/evening time period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Thursday, drier air is forecast to move into the interior sections and it will likely be dry over the higher terrain. the best chance of any showers will be over the far southeastern plains during the late afternoon and evening time period. Temperatures will be seasonable this day. Marginal critical fire weather conditions will be possible over the interior mtns due to single digit min RH values and breezy conditions.

Friday is expected to be mainly dry and much warmer, with mid 90s most of plains and mid 80s valleys. It will be much drier over the interior and fire weather concerns will continua over the interior mtns (Although RH values will be a bit higher than Thursdays values).

Weekend...Saturday will be cooler than Sunday (Mid 80s vs Low 90s). Scattered storms are expected each day in the mtns with isolated over the plains.

For early next week, statistical guidance still shows quite a bit of variability, but overall it shows a cooling trend with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region. The variability is likely due in part to the timing of a cool front which is forecast to come down the plains during the ~Tuesday-ish time frame. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Shower and thunderstorms will be LIKELY today at KCOS and KPUB. Strong gusty winds to ~40 knts and a period of low vis due to rain will be possible. Best time frame for the thunder will be roughly during the 23Z-03Z time frame this late afternoon/early evening. Otherwise expect VFR conditions at the these two airports.

VFR next 24 hours at KALS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.