textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- One more active day for thunderstorms over the mountains followed by a warming and drying trend over the weekend as monsoon moisture gets suppressed westward.

- Return of 100 degree temperatures across the plains likely by Sunday along with continued dry conditions.

- Monday now looks like a transition day with thunderstorms increasing out west, but remaining hot and dry out east.

- Uptick in thunderstorms possible for most areas by mid week as some degree of monsoon moisture returns and cold frontal intrusions across the southeast plains bring promise of low level moisture return.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Broad upper high centered over the Rockies will dominate the pattern for Friday with the richer monsoon moisture tap (Precip waters running 150+ percent of normal) remaining across AZ/UT and western CO. Today looks fairly similar to yesterday with the exception of some better moisture return along the Raton Mesa in the afternoon in southerly flow. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains in the afternoon before drifting southwestward into the adjacent mountains/valleys through the afternoon and evening as southern Colorado remains under light northeasterly steering currents aloft. Heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flash flooding for burn scars and areas with susceptible soils will continue to be the primary risk. This includes Willow fire. Precipitable waters transitions to around 100% of normal for the southeast mountains, so thunderstorm coverage may be a little less with a slightly lower probability (though not 0) for producing flash flooding. Otherwise, the plains will remain dry again, with the exception of the Raton Ridge where high res models suggest 50+ dew points advect in from the south with up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE in place in the afternoon. Have nudged isolated pops northward into this area, but otherwise, the remainder of the plains will remain dry.

Showers and thunderstorms simmer down during the evening with gradual clear overnight. Didn't stray too far from model blends, except to cool some of the cooler valley locations (Rio Grande, San Luis, and Wet Mountain Valley) where NBM means have been running a few degrees too warm lately. -KT

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper high shifts eastward across WY putting southern CO under easterly flow aloft under the south side of the upper high circulation. This serves to push the monsoon plume westward, bringing warmer and drier conditions across the forecast area over the weekend. Precipitable waters decrease to up to 120% of normal along the Continental Divide, with drier air across the plains spreading westward into the southeast mountains. This will bring a downturn in thunderstorm coverage over the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains. The majority of these will be across the central and southwest mountains with storm motions to the west. The Flash Flood Risk decreases too by virtue of less thunderstorm coverage, though there will still be some spotty heavy rains possible along the Continental Divide. Meanwhile, with H7 temperatures soaring into the +18 to +20 C range, temperatures could top 100 across the plains, especially on Sunday.

Upper high shifts southeastward into next week, allowing the eastern edge of the monsoon plume to shift back eastward into the mountains with recirculating monsoon moisture gradually spreading around the northern and eastern side of the upper ridge into the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. With more of a northwest component to winds aloft, this may allow for a few storms to drift off into the adjacent plains, while also allowing for cool fronts to penetrate southward into southeast plains by mid week. Monday moistens out west, but still looks hot and dry across most of the southeast plains. A cool Front drops in for Tuesday bringing the potential for increasing low level moisture and thunderstorm chances across the plains when precipitable waters finally edge towards 120% of normal. Highest precipitable waters through the period will remain out west (up to 150% of normal) across the southwest and central mountains. Locally heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding will increase again for burn scars. If low level moisture in easterly upslope flow increases sufficiently, Aspen Acres and the 24 burn scars may also see an elevated risk of flash flooding for mid to late week. This also drops temperatures a few degrees towards more seasonal normals towards the weeks end. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Afternoon showers and storms develop over the higher terrain and spread south and west across the high mountain valleys with weak east to northeast flow aloft across the Rockies. With that said, introduced prob30 1722/1802 at ALS. Winds at the terminals will again be breezy east to southeast for the afternoon and evening hours, becoming generally light diurnal drainage overnight.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.