textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers are expected across the plains Saturday morning, with dry conditions then prevailing for the rest of the weekend.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected everyday next week, with potential for high end fire weather days, especially Tuesday.

- Showers return to the mountains and valleys next week, especially across the Continental Divide.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1253 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today: The start of the weekend brings active weather early, though with quiet weather returning by the end of the day. An exiting trough and associated surface low will be in place early in the day. With these features in place, some organized ascent will be ongoing, primarily across the plains given influence from the surface low. Along with that, richer moisture content will be wrapping around the surface low and across the eastern plains. With the forcing and moisture, rain showers are expected to be ongoing across the plains early in the day, and given very low instability in place, convective rain showers are possible. With that all said though, as the trough and low are anticipated to push east during the afternoon, with ridging quickly building in behind it. With forcing and moisture decreasing, showers are expected to dissipate from the northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours, with dry conditions by early evening. Otherwise, cloudy skies early will become mostly clear by the evening hours, with breezy winds in place behind the storm system. Looking at temperatures, a mild, though above seasonal, day is anticipated, with the plains in the 50s to low 60s, the valleys in the 50s, and the mountains in the 20s to 40s.

Tonight: Saturday night brings quiet weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned ridge will be in place over the region, and given greater descent with this feature, along with drier air, dry conditions are expected to prevail. Then to go along with that, winds will remain light, with mostly clear skies persisting. Temperatures overnight, while chilly, will remain above seasonal lows for mid February, with the plains falling into the 20s to low 30s, and the valleys and mountains into the 10s to 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Sunday: For Sunday, the quiet weather continues across south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridging will remain in place. Given the continued descent, and no uptick in moisture content, dry conditions will persist. Otherwise, winds will start to become breezy ahead of a pattern change, with pockets of clouds becoming more prominent during the day as well. Looking at temperatures, with increasing winds and downsloping, winds will continue the warm and above seasonal values trends, especially across the eastern plains.

Sunday Night: Ending the weekend, quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado before a busy week of weather. The Ridging will still be in place, though will start to slide east as a pattern change pushes into the region. Still, with the ridging in place, dry conditions are anticipated for the area. Winds during this period will remain light for the valleys and plains, though will start to become increasingly breezy for the higher elevations as flow aloft increases in response to the approaching pattern change. Outside of all of that, another mild night with above seasonal temperatures and partly cloudy skies is expected.

Monday - Friday: Through much of next week, active weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado, with critical fire weather conditions remaining the biggest concern. Synoptically, a prolonged period of strong westerly to southwesterly flow will setup over the region as a jet streak stagnates over the area. This will bring a period of increased orographic forcing along the mountains, along with gusty winds through the week. Confidence remains high (70-80%) in this pattern evolution given continued strong agreement between model guidance. Looking at precipitation, showers are expected across the mountains and valleys next week given the persistent orographic forcing in place. The greatest coverage of showers will remain along the Continental Divide. The plains are expected to remain fairly dry given strong downsloping winds. The greatest weather concern next week is still expected to be a prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions. Gusty to strong winds, and low humidity values, will be in place across the plains everyday next week. Fire danger will be high during this period, but especially Tuesday, when the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity values will take place, potentially allowing for extreme critical fire weather conditions to develop. Beyond all of that, partly cloudy skies and gusty winds will be in place during this period. Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal values are anticipated early in the week, with a cool down by midweek, though with temperatures still hovering slightly above seasonal values.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 433 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Rain and snow showers w/lower cigs will come to an end early this morning with VFR conditions developing by 14-15 UTC.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for COZ226>230. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ226>237.