textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture through the work week leading to increasing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Colorado Monday and Tuesday.

- Trending drier and warmer into next weekend with more isolated storms possible, mainly over the higher terrain, each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with another short wave translating across eastern Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies at this time. Dry air remains in place across much of southern Colorado with current dew pts in the 20s and 30s across most of south central and southeast Colorado, with dew pts in the 40s across the far southeast plains at this time. Regional satellite imagery and radar data has isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms across the northern mtns, with some cumulus buildups across the Central mountains into the Pikes Peak region as of 1 pm.

For tonight, can't rule out a high based shower across the Central mtns into the Pikes Peak region through the late afternoon and early evening, with mainly virga and little to no measurable rain expected. Otherwise, passing Northern Rockies wave will send a front across the Eastern Plains leading to increasing low level moisture back into southeast Colorado overnight. Overnight lows look to be warmer than last night, with lows mainly in the 50s across the plains and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Latest model data supports moderate southwest flow aloft across the region tomorrow, with another embedded wave translating across the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies through the day. This helps to develop lee troughing across the plains with south to southeast low level flow keeping the best low level moisture north and east of a Falcon (eastern El Paso County) to La Junta line, where HREF data has mean CAPE of 1000- 2000 j/kg. Further west across the I-25 Corridor, HREF mean CAPE is 500- 1000 j/kg. Also, model sounding data supports mid level waa and capping in place across plains, with latest HREF and higher res data indicating best chances of storm initiation in the Pikes Peak region, along and north the Palmer Dvd, as well as across Raton Mesa into Baca County. SPC Day 2 Outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms generally north and east of Pueblo to Springfield line, with a slight risk generally north and east of a Limon to Eads line, with the main risks across most of southeast Colorado being large hail around an inch in diameter and strong winds to around 60 mph, with a non zero chance of a tornado across portions of Kiowa County, where more easterly flow and increased SRH will be in place. Further west, can't rule a few high based showers/storms once again across the central mtns, where enough moisture and lift from passing Great Basin wave will be in place. Temperatures will be at and above seasonal levels again tomorrow, with highs mainly in the 80s across the plains, with mainly 60s and 70s expected across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Model data continues to support increasing available moisture to the area within more southwesterly flow aloft, as more energy digs across the Great Basin and then lifts out across the Northern Rockies through the work week. Passing waves and convection will bring a few passing fronts across the eastern plains, allowing for ebbs and flows of low level moisture as well. This will lead to increasing coverage of daily showers and storms through the week, with the potential for strong to severe storms across the plains on Tuesday, where SPD has a marginal risk at this time. By Wednesday and Thursday, flow aloft weakens enough to support more locally heavy rain and a the potential for localized flash flooding. With the expected increase in convection, I did lower NBM temperatures some, especially across the southeast plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

By the end of the work week into next weekend, flow aloft continues to weaken with upper level ridging building across the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Models do indicate warming temperatures, but differ on amount of available moisture in place, with likely enough moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, especially over and near the higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through this taf period. Breezy south to southeast winds at COS and PUB develop through the afternoon and become northerly through the evening behind a front pushing south across the Eastern Plains. Breezy southwest winds at ALS through the afternoon, diminish to light diurnal through the evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.