textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, especially Palmer Divide and far eastern counties with large hail and damaging winds possible with an isolated tornado risk along the Palmer Divide

- Another round of strong to severe storms for the southeast plains on Tuesday with higher CAPE but weaker deep layer shear

- Thunderstorm chances increase all areas for Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall possible

- A trend toward drier and warmer conditions sets in late week into next weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Frontal boundary sags southward into southeast CO through the morning with easterly low level flow behind the front advecting 40s to low 50 dew points back westward into the southeast plains, particularly along/north of highway 50. Lee side surface low deepens along the southern border setting up a dry line across eastern Las Animas and Baca counties in the afternoon. Degree of moisture return still varies in the models with the drier solutions keeping dew points in the 30s and 40s in the afternoon which would push the higher CAPE and severe storm risk just north of the area. Mean CAPEs off the HREF suggest 500-1000 J/kg for the northern I-25 corridor counties increasing to 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg on the high side across Kiowa county. SRH will maximize across northern portions of the forecast area where enhanced easterly surface winds set up beneath modest southwest flow aloft. NAMNest shows around 200 m2/s2 across northern El Paso county where the 00z run continues to show an impressive updraft helicity swath. Again, models that are slower to bring the moisture south and westward paint all these parameters farther north. Still like the idea of a marginal severe risk for mainly wind along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains, trending towards a large hail and damaging wind risk the farther north and east you go. Northern El Paso and Kiowa counties would have the greatest risks for large hail and an isolated tornado and have placed highest pops up that way.

Otherwise, it will still be fairly dry and breezy across the western mountains and interior valleys and there will be a return of elevated fire weather conditions even though fuels are not considered receptive. Temperatures will stay well above normal for another day, topping out around 90 across the plains.

Front makes another push southward across the plains tonight, reinforced by thunderstorm outflows. This will bring higher dew points westward with the possibility of stratus/low clouds develop across much of the plains and eastern slopes of the southeast mountains overnight. This should keep low temperatures mild across the plains with lows in the 50s. Dry airmass out west will still favor some cooler near 30 readings in the colder valley locations (San Luis and Upper Rio Grande).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

With more low level moisture in play across the plains on Tuesday, and the approach of the next disturbance embedded within weakening southwest flow aloft, this will trigger more widespread showers and thunderstorms for the eastern mountains and plains. Flow aloft will be more southerly allowing the western mountains and valleys to see an increase in mid/high level moisture which will support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms as well. These will be less efficient precipitation makers given inverted V soundings. Meanwhile, higher CAPE across the plains (HREF means of 1000-2000 J/kg) but decreasing deep layer shears (25-30 kts), may allow for a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms once again. Storm may be more multicellular in structure, with gusty winds and brief large hail possible with the initial stronger updrafts or cell mergers. Risk for heavy rainfall also increases as storm motions will be slower and there will be a risk for redevelopment and training along/north of the old boundary across the southeast plains into the overnight hours. Details on where these mesoscale features set up is still in flux, but forecast will carry higher pops for Tuesday, which will continue into the overnight hours out east.

The active thunderstorm pattern will continue into Wednesday as upper level troughing lingers over the area between a system glancing through the northern plains to the north, and a closed low over the Baja Peninsula. Flow aloft is even weaker and this may be more of a widespread general showers and thunderstorms day across southern Colorado. Temperatures should be cooler given more cloud cover and earlier onset of convection. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding may be the primary concerns this day.

Flow aloft becomes more westerly for late week suggesting an overall drying and warming trend, though residual moisture circulating up from the old Pacific low across the Desert Southwest will be sufficient for daily isolated thunderstorm chances. High temperatures will return into the 90s across the plains for Friday through the weekend, with 70s and 80s for the valleys and 50s and 60s for most mountain locations. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions with mainly dry weather still anticipated across the TAF sites this period. Still closely monitoring a low chance for thunderstorm development across COS later this afternoon into the early evening. While confidence is still on the lower side, have maintained the prob30 for thunder. However, latest trends suggest that the potential for thunderstorm development is shifting further to the north. Will let later forecasts assess the need to keep the prob30 though.

Winds have diminished early this morning but will see gusts return once again later this afternoon. Southwest winds and gusts return to ALS, while COS observes south southeast winds and gusts. Still monitoring the potential for stronger east northeast winds and gusts late this afternoon into the evening. If these stronger winds occurred, it would stem the thunderstorm development. Given the lower confidence with the storms, there is also lower confidence with these winds. Again, will continue to closely monitor and assess.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.