textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A quiet weather day for Wednesday then widespread critical fire weather conditions return for Thursday across most of southern CO.

- Next system crosses CO Friday bringing another chance of rain and higher elevation snows to southern CO though storm track is still prone to change.

- Colder system possible Tue/Wed of next week with another round of snow showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1228 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Compact low pressure system will fill and move eastward with rain and snow showers coming to an end across southeast CO by morning. Shortwave ridging returns for today with light winds and mild temperatures expected under mostly sunny skies district wide. High temperatures today will rebound back into the 60s for the lower elevations with a 50s for the valleys and 30s and 40s for the mountains.

Southwest flow aloft increases tonight as the next system drops towards the Great Basin. This will bring lee troughing and mild low temperatures (30s to near 40) for the lower eastern slopes as enhanced westerly winds set up towards morning. Elsewhere, cold pockets are expected in the valleys where temperatures will drop into the teens under clear skies, with a mix of 20s and 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Winds increase for Thursday as the next upper low pressure system drops into the Great Basin during the day. Isolated snow showers spread into the Continental Divide during the afternoon, while a dry slot overspreads southern and eastern CO during the afternoon. Dew points drop into the single digits and teens with the driest readings along the southern I-25 corridor and southeast mountains. Combined with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and unseasonably warm temperatures with humidities below 15 percent, widespread critical fire weather conditions will be likely across much of southern CO Thursday afternoon where fuels are receptive. Have expanded current Fire Weather Watches to include zone 225 (Sangres, Wets and Wet Mountain Valley) where lower elevations are easily achieving critical fire weather conditions, even with the NBM means. Downslope patterns such as these typically lean towards the 25th percentile (or lower) for dew points, so this could be a higher end event, though not quite into the PDS category. Another concern will be what affect the rain and snow had on fuels across the Pikes Peak region and Pueblo County. Will let later shifts get in touch with land management agencies to get an updated fuels status before upgrading watches.

The upper low slowly moves across CO on Friday with more energy digging down the western side which develops into a cut off low that retrogrades into southern CA Friday night/Sat AM. This brings another round of higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain showers with the current storm track favoring the Continental Divide and the mountains/plains north of highway 50 for the heavier QPF amounts. Odds of seeing 0.25 or higher range from 30 to 70% for for the central mountains, Pikes Peak region and the adjacent I-25 corridor along and north of highway 50. The system has trended deeper and farther south with the upper low position across UT/CO in ensemble means, signaling at least the potential for this system to spread more precipitation farther south than the previous one. Time will tell but for now will trend Friday towards the cooler NBM 25th percentile for high temperatures, with scattered to likely pops across the mountains and adjacent plains.

Precipitation decreases Friday night into Saturday as the system retrogrades towards southern CA and northern stream energy shifts off the east. Flow aloft over CO looks weaker now for Sunday and Monday, so as temperatures rebound, winds are looking weaker suggesting perhaps only spotty critical fire weather conditions redeveloping on Sunday or Monday as the northern stream jet buckles and shifts southward.

The cut off low ejects too far south in latest runs (across northern Old Mexico on Tue) to have much affect on southern CO, but models have trended colder for Tuesday into Wednesday as the next northern stream trough plunges southward across CO during this period. This is looking colder than runs did yesterday suggesting at least a brief shot for snow across southern CO Tue Night/Wed. Lots of uncertainty with this latter system though, so stay tuned. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 411 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Clouds will continue to scatter out across southeast Colorado behind last nights passing wave, with VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Winds will be generally light and diurnally driven at the terminals.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ222-224>237.