textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow impact the area Friday through Saturday morning.

- Multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are likely next week, with Tuesday being the day of greatest concern.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today: For the end of the week, weather starts to become more active for south central and southeastern Colorado. Increasing southwesterly flow and moisture will be in place ahead an approaching trough. With forcing and orographics surging, along with richer moisture advecting over the region, precipitation coverage will start to increase, particularly across the mountains and valleys. With that said, temperatures will be rather mild and unseasonably warm ahead of this system. Given this, snow levels will only be around 7,000 ft early in the day, and rise to around 8,000 ft by the afternoon. This will allow for snow across the valleys and mountains early in the day, with snow transitioning to mostly rain by the afternoon for the valleys, though remaining snow for the mountains. In addition, while the plains are expected to remain mostly dry during the day, an isolated rain shower can't be ruled out across the I-25 corridor during the afternoon hours as showers become pushed off of the higher terrain. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light tomorrow, around and less than 10 mph, with clouds steadily increasing throughout the day. As for temperatures, as alluded to, it will be unseasonably warm, with the plains reaching into the mid 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 50s, and the mountains into the mid 20s to low 40s.

Tonight: Heading into Friday night, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. The approaching trough will now be passing over the region, bringing increased ascent and orographics. Along with that, increased moisture will remain in place. With the forcing and moisture in place, precipitation coverage will remain heightened across the area. Like Friday though, temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm, even during the overnight hours. Given this, snow levels will be slow to fall, and only fall to 6,500-7,000 ft for much of the area. With this, all snow is still expected across the mountains, with rain transitioning to a rain/snow mix for the valleys and Palmer Divide, and any precipitation across the plains staying all rain. Outside of all of that, winds will remain relatively light at around and less than 10 mph, with cloudy skies persisting. Looking at temperatures, lows will continue to stay above seasonal values, with the plains falling into the 30s, the valleys into the 20s, and the mountains into 10s to 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Saturday: The start of the weekend will bring active weather early, with quiet weather returning by the end of the day. The troughing that was in place Friday night will be starting to exit through early Saturday morning, with ridging building in during the afternoon. While the troughing is still in place early in the day, rain showers are expected across the eastern plains as a surface low passes just south of the area and wraps deeper moisture into the plains. Given very low instability in place, transiently convective rain showers will be possible. With that all said though, as the trough exits and ridging quickly builds in, any precipitation in place will dissipate from west to east, with dry conditions then prevailing by the afternoon hours. Beyond all of that, winds will become more breezy behind the exiting system, though with skies becoming more clear throughout the day. Temperatures during Saturday will cool down, though remain above seasonal values for mid February.

Saturday Night - Sunday: Heading into the end of the weekend, quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridging that moved in Saturday will remain in place, and given greater subsidence with this feature, along with a drop in moisture content, dry conditions are anticipated. Otherwise, breezy conditions and partly cloudy skies are expected. As for temperatures, values will quickly climb back to above seasonal values.

Monday - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period, active weather returns, with fire weather becoming the biggest concern during this period. Synoptically, strong westerly to southwesterly flow will be in place over the region, and given strong agreement between ensemble model guidance, confidence is high (60-70%) in this pattern evolution. Firstly, this flow pattern will bring an increase in orographic forcing, allowing for a persistent period of precipitation across the mountains and valleys, with the heaviest and greatest coverage of precipitation remaining along the mountains. The plains are expected to remain fairly dry during this period given downsloping winds. As alluded to though, fire weather will be the greatest concern during this timeframe. With the strong jet streak over the region, and dry downsloping winds, multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are likely across the plains. At this time, Tuesday is looking to be the day of greatest concern as humidity values drop into the low teens and strong winds spread across the region. In addition to that, winds will increase significantly during this period given the pattern in place, with high winds possible Tuesday as well. Beyond all of that, partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures are anticipated, with above seasonal temperatures for much of the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1019 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions overnight into Friday morning at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB). As the day progresses, low stratus will develop by mid afternoon and increase into the evening. Showers will likely develop by late afternoon and evening, with reduced CIGS and VIS possible in rain showers. KALS may see a mix of rain and snow during the evening. Mozley

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.