textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong north winds and showers/isolated t-storms on the plains into this evening, perhaps some snow showers along the Palmer Divide overnight.

- Generally dry and breezy on Tue, strongest winds early in the day on the plains.

- Weak trough will bring scattered showers Wed into Wed night, early weekend system continues to look rather weak with just isolated showers over the mountains Fri night.

- Flooding will continue into mid-week along many waterways in the San Luis Valley, especially along the Conejos River and also the Rio Grande from Alamosa upstream.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Surface/mid level low pressure was located over sern CO early this afternoon, with nice area of post frontal deformation wrapping southward around the low across the I-25 corridor and southeast plains. Have even seen a few lightning strikes with heavier embedded precip, especially along and south of the Arkansas River where north winds were providing a little upslope boost to vertical motion and precip development. Precip has been mostly rain, though some occasional snow has mixed in over Teller County above 8000 feet. Farther west, scattered rain/mtn snow showers were gradually diminishing over the mountains and interior valleys, and expect precip here to continue to taper off into the evening. On the plains/I-25, already seeing signs of downslope drying in latest radar loop, with precip beginning to diminish and weaken from Pueblo northward into El Paso County. Expect this trend to continue through the afternoon into the evening, with bulk of precip ending up south of the Arkansas River by sunset as low pulls away and nly downslope increases. Brisk north winds then continue overnight into Tue morning, with precip gradually fading away at most locations, though HRRR suggest a few showers may redevelop along the Palmer Divide and near the KS border after midnight, lingering into early Tue morning. Precip could mix with or change to snow around Monument/Black Forest overnight, though expect any snow accumulations to be light given temps in the mid 30s.

On Tuesday, skies become mostly sunny by afternoon as clouds/precip shift east of the area. Still breezy/windy on the plains especially in the morning, with north winds gusting over 30 mph in the morning, then gradually diminishing from west to east during the afternoon. Max temps will remain rather cool despite the sun, with readings near/slightly below seasonal averages.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Weak upper wave sneaks through the central Rockies late Wed into Thu morning, bringing widespread but generally light showers to many locations, heaviest Wed night. Precip amounts will be under a quarter inch, but with snow levels falling toward 7000 feet by Thu morning, higher terrain locations could see a quick inch or two of snow before precip ends. Generally dry/mild weather then returns from Thu afternoon into Fri, before another weak wave brings back a few mountains showers Fri night/Sat morning. Weekend now looks dry and warmer as swrn upper ridge builds and main trough axis shifts eastward into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 420 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

KALS: MFR conditions will last into tonight, with passing showers in the valley steadily decreasing. Winds will gust to around 20 knots this evening as well, weakening overnight and remaining mostly out of the NW. Clouds return to VFR conditions by Tuesday morning.

KCOS: gusty north winds, MVFR clouds, and passing showers will continue for a few hours this evening. Showers will depart the area by 02Z or so, and clouds should raise back towards VFR, but gusty north winds will continue through the night, 25-30 knots. After another brief chance for showers early Tuesday morning, MVFR and breezy winds will continue through the end of this forecast period.

KPUB: Gusty north winds and persistent clouds will continue into Tuesday. By late Tuesday morning, winds should weaken a bit with lowering cloud ceilings, though VFR to high-MVFR is expected to remain. Chances for any more rain are too low to include in this round of TAFs. Winds weaken Tuesday afternoon, with decreasing cloud cover by late afternoon into early Tues evening.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Any additional precip today and this evening over the San Luis Valley and upstream will be light, with precip amounts of only a tenth of an inch or so expected. A weather system Wed will bring back rain/snow showers, though precip amounts will be light, generally under a quarter inch.

Regarding river levels, the South Fork of the Rio Grande at South Fork has crested and will continue to fall today/Tue. The Conejos River near Mogote will crest at major flood level this afternoon, then begin falling tonight into Tue. Flooding on the Conejos will continue downstream from Mogote to the confluence with the Rio Grande today through Tuesday. The Rio Grande at Del Norte has crested and will fall below flood stage Tue, while the Rio Grande at Monte Vista will continue rising, cresting at moderate flood stage Tue morning, then falling late Tue into Wed. At Alamosa, the Rio Grande will begin to rise tonight, reaching flood stage on Wed.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.