textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued critical and near critical fire weather conditions into early evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, which continue into the overnight hours behind a stronger cold front.

- Much cooler on Sunday, with highest chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.

- Hot, drier and breezy weather for the middle to end of next week will bring critical fire weather conditions back across south central and southeast Colorado.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning as of 7 PM. A cold front has arrived, with increased humidity values across the region, along with increasing shower activity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Continue to monitor surface cold front dropping south across the plains this afternoon for strengthening northerly winds, increased potential for critical fire weather conditions, as well bringing increased moisture to the plains. Have mainly observed northerly winds gusting to around 35 mph as this front has pushed through, with most locations over the plains observing a one to two hour window of critical fire weather conditions. With dew points and RH values quickly improving post FROPA, have not expanded the Red Flag Warning at this time. For the two zones in the Red Flag Warning, this has mostly verified, especially for the Lake and Chaffee county/zones. Will keep the end times for both zones this evening, however, could see the Pueblo county/zone improving slightly before the end time.

Shower and thunderstorm development has remained limited this afternoon, however, have begun to see shower development over the southwest mountains and valleys as mid level energy has increased the region. This will likely continue and spread east through the afternoon, reaching the southeast mountains and far southern I-25 corridor. Thunderstorms will remain possible, but with limited instability, don't think severe weather will be possible in this area this afternoon. Have observed isolated thunderstorm development over the far southeast plains here recently, developing along the cold front and surface trough. Higher instability in this location is supporting some more robust updrafts at this time, and given high amount of DCAPE, think a stronger storm or two with strong wind gusts will remain possible in this area this afternoon.

The energy pushes east through the evening, with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms expected to remain across the southeast plains. Additional increases in moisture through this time frame will support increased instability and with shear increasing as well, would not be surprised to see a strong to severe storm or two later this evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible but don't anticipate any severe weather in these locations.

Much cooler and more moist air arrives tonight and with deeper easterlies in place, think showers and isolated thunder will remain possible. By Sunday, this cooler air will support much cooler temperatures across southern Colorado. Additionally, instability gets pushed across the mountains and mountain valleys on Sunday. Highest chances for stronger thunderstorms will be across these locations.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged for Monday and Tuesday, and will lead to temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels. There will be enough available moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, with the potential for stronger storms with said northwest flow aloft.

Increasing westerly flow remains progged across the region for the middle to end of next week, as upper level ridging across the Desert SW remains progged to build into the Rockies. Increasing flow will bring critical fire weather conditions back across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, along with temperatures back to well above seasonal levels, with triple digits readings possible across the southeast plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 539 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Cold front has pushed across much of the eastern plains this afternoon and surface flow is starting to make the easterly shift, with gusts of 25-30 kts pushing back towards the I-25 Corridor and eastern mts. for the remainder of the higher terrain and high valleys, winds were predominantly out of the W-NW.

Plan on VFR conditions for most locations now through 04z, then as easterly flow deepens and increases, and as clouds thicken and lower along with drizzle/very light rain spreading, expect MVFR to intermittent IFR conditions developing along the I-25 Corridor and all locations west between 06z-08z, and persisting into midday Sunday. Introduced PROB30 wording for -TSRA potential starting around 18z tomorrow for all three terminal sites, KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.