textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler Tuesday with another round of strong to severe storms for portions of the southeast plains

- Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday, especially for the mountains, with locally heavy rainfall possible and an isolated strong storm possible far eastern plains

- Warming trend returns late week into early next week with at least isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day and a slight uptick in thunderstorms possible on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Reinforced by thunderstorm outflows, the frontal boundary and higher dew points have backed westward through most of the southeast plains. Dew points have increased into the upper 40s and 50s across most of the plains. Developing stratus overnight across the plains will gradually break through the late morning with southerly flow spreading northward off the Raton Ridge. This frontal boundary will be the focus for another round of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Deep layer shears look a little stronger than they did last night with southwest flow aloft remaining respectable as rising heights to the south take time to weaken the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a ribbon of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE along/behind the front may allow for rapid storm initiation where adequate deep layer shears (around 30 kts in HREF mean) may support some large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado spin up along the boundary can't be ruled out, especially with any initial quick updraft development/boundary vorticity stretching. This risk does look low, however. To the north of the boundary, a cap will be in place which may limit how much activity survives as it shifts north off the boundary. Localized flash flooding will be possible along the southern border counties where repeated development and training could occur, but antecedent soil moistures and ongoing drought, may offset this somewhat keeping the risk more localized.

Another area for thunderstorm initiation tomorrow will be along the southeast mountains and Palmer Divide. Mean CAPEs off HREF of up to 1500 J/kg and adequate shear around 30-35 kts kts could result in a strong to near severe storm or two with hail, locally heavy rain, and gusty outflow with the primary risks. Low level SRH will be weaker farther north and any brief weak tornado threat looks much lower than yesterday.

North of highway 50 across the remainder of the plains, storms will have to battle the cap. Most will diminish as the move northeastward across the plains, but a few could survive across the far eastern plains as a southerly low level jet develops tonight. Latest high res models shift activity southeast of the area by late evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Energy pivoting northward out of NM will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern CO for Wednesday, with the greatest uptick across the mountain areas. Shear will be much weaker given the light flow aloft. But there will still be some pockets of higher CAPE (1000+ J/kg) across the far southeast plains that could support a pulse strong storm or two. Locally heavy rainfall and some small would be the primary concerns with most storms, and can't rule out some gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph across the San Luis Valley valleys where downdraft CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be in place.

Southern CO comes under the influence of westerly flow aloft for Thursday and Friday which brings a gradual downturn in convective coverage each day. There will still be sufficient moisture pivoting up from the south from the orphaned closed low across old Mexico to bring us some isolated mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms both days. Temperatures will heat up again with highs back in the 90s across the plains.

There could be a subtle uptick in thunderstorm chances for Saturday as the upper low to the south shears out as it lifts to the northeast into the TX/OK panhandles. This allows a little better moisture tap to shift northward for some scattered mountain and isolated plains thunderstorms. Otherwise, isolated storms will be possible each day with continued hot temperatures as ridging to the south builds northward into early next week. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

At KCOS, winds turn gradually e-se overnight, leading to a period of MVFR stratus 10z-17z. Clouds clear after 17z with VFR conditions much of the day, then a prob30 for -tsra after 22z-03z as storms begin to move off the higher terrain.

At KPUB, winds turn more e-se overnight, leading to a period of MVFR stratus 10z-16z. Clouds clear 16z-17z with VFR conditions much of the day, then a prob30 for -tsra 22z-03z as storms begin to move off the higher terrain. At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with sw winds increasing again on Tue after 19z, with a few gusts 20-25 kts.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.