textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today through Monday with a continued flash flood risk on area burn scars.

- Cooler temperatures in the 80s through the weekend.

- Drier and warmer weather likely for mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently...radar early this morning shows scattered showers stretching from the Palmer Divide, and areas east of I-25. A couple rumbles of thunder may be possible. There is plenty of moisture around, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the Plains, so these showers could produce locally heavy rainfall. This activity will continue to lift northeast across the Plains through daybreak, clearing into Kansas. Temperatures remain mild with mostly 60s across the Plains.

Today and tonight...not much change to the forecast thinking, with high pressure sitting over the southeast states and an upper trough off the west coast. This will keep persistent southwest flow aloft across Colorado, with an upper wave embedded in the flow lifting across the region. Low level flow remains easterly, keeping the dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the Plains. SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg will develop by this afternoon, and 0-6km shear near 20-25 kts will continue across the Plains. PWAT values remain elevated in excess of an inch on the Plains. Expect another day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms lifting across eastern Colorado this afternoon and tonight. Convection will fire across the Mountains by midday, and lift northeast this evening into the overnight hours. High- res CAM guidance consensus has a majority of convective development occurring along the I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide. The HRRR and NSSL MPAS do have heavier cells across the Aspen Acres burn scar by 2 PM, shifting east into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon. Even though confidence is not overly high with flash flooding on the burn scar, it only takes one thunderstorms to move across it, and the fact that cells will be efficient rain producers...went ahead to issues a Flash Flood Watch for this afternoon. This activity will shift northeast during the evening hours, clearing the area overnight.

Temperatures will once again be pleasant this afternoon with 80s to near 90 for highs with the highest readings near the Kansas border. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s for the lower elevations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Models and ensembles remain in good agreement through Monday, with differences remaining for mid to late next week with the development of an upper high across the west.

Saturday through Monday...the upper pattern remains stable through Sunday with southwesterly flow and embedded energy lifting across Colorado. The threat for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will remain across Colorado Saturday and Sunday, before the upper high to the southeast begins to build westward. PWAT values remain high, in excess of an inch, through Sunday, drying slightly heading into Monday. Multiple waves will impact southern Colorado. Low level flow will remain southeasterly, keeping moisture across the region, with marginal instability around 1000 j/kg each day and weak 0-6km shear. Thunderstorms look to initially develop across the higher terrain during the afternoon hours, then spread northeast during the evening and overnight hours. Flash flooding remains a concern on area burn scars, especially Saturday and Sunday. While we do start to dry out Monday, burn scar flash flooding threat remains elevated. Overall, temperatures continue to look pleasant, with 70s and 80s across the Plains.

Tuesday through Friday...lots of spread in the model guidance and ensembles for mid to late week. The ECMWF and Canadian are similar, with the ECMWF developing a strong upper high centered over Colorado. The Canadian isn't quite as strong as the ECMWF, and places the high west over the Great Basin. The GFS is developing an upper ridge along the west coast, with broad northwesterly flow across Colorado. The NBM continues to trend more with the ECMWF and Canadian, with drier and warmer conditions for mid to late week. High temperatures look to trend warmer, with highs back into the 90s across the Plains. PWAT values also dry out significantly. This will help limit shower and thunderstorm development, and what does develop will likely have lower rain rates and limited flash flood risk.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 508 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The main concern today will be thunderstorms moving across the TAF sites during the late afternoon and early evening time period. Although brief periods of MVFR will be possible, main concerns will be gust winds with the storms as they move through. Otherwise, expect VFR with generally diurnal wind flow prior to the convective activity. After the storms move through, wind flow this evening into tonight will be from a northerly component at KCOS and KPUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.