textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and breezy with one more day of unseasonably warm temperatures across the southeast plains for Mon.

- Rounds of showers along the Continental Divide, especially Monday night through Wednesday with snow levels dropping to pass levels Tue Night and Wed with light to moderate accumulations possible across the higher elevations.

- Noticeably cooler for Wednesday with scattered showers/thunderstorms across the plains.

- Frost/Freeze possible San Luis Valley beginning Wednesday night, and across portions of the southeast plains Thu and/or Fri nights.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Southwest flow continues over the area today as Pacific NW upper low drops south southeastward into NV overnight. Drier air evident in WV pics across the Desert Southwest will spread over the area today bringing a relatively dry and mild day to most of the area. Mid level temperatures cool a couple degrees over yesterday, so even with deep mixing from breezy southwest flow, we should see some minor cooling for most areas. It does look like there will be a lull in the precipitation over most of the mountains today, except the eastern San Juans where some afternoon showers and thunderstorms will redevelop, a few of which could spill over into the Sangre De Cristo mountains during the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, it will be dry and breezy for most areas with elevated fire weather conditions possible across Pueblo county where afternoon humidity levels may briefly approach 15 percent. Otherwise temperatures will remain well above normal (around 10 degrees) for the southeast plains, though closer to normal (3-5 degrees) for the mountains and interior valleys.

Better chances for showers will spread into the Continental Divide tonight as the upper low continues to dig southward towards southern NV. Best chances spread into the eastern San Juan mountains after midnight where southwesterly flow will provide the best orographic ascent. Snow levels may dip to near pass levels towards Tuesday morning, though it still looks too warm for impactful snow along the Continental Divide. Overnight lows will remain mild given persistent breezy southwesterly flow into the lee side surface trough and most areas will continue dry. -KT

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Temperatures will be cooler for Tuesday as the upper low approaches the 4 corners region and mid level temperatures cool another 2-4 degrees C, especially along the Continental Divide. Although the system does not look as deeply moist as the previous ones, forcing will increase through Tuesday night as the consensus of the models lifts the upper low from the 4 corners region into NE CO at varying timings. GFS has trended towards the EC and Canadian but is still on the faster side of the envelope with the upper low filling and lifting out of NE CO Wednesday Night. EC and Canadian are around 12 hours slower, hanging the upper low back over CO through Wednesday Night before filling and lifting it northeastward into NE CO by mid day Thursday as energy out west cuts off and retrogrades over the southwest U.S. and the Baja Peninsula.

Models are in fair agreement though Tuesday with showers continuing along the Continental Divide, and dry and breezy conditions prevailing across the southeast plains. Once the system begins to eject eastward, there are still some differences with QPF across the southeast plains. Eventually a cold front will drop through the southeast plains bringing noticeably cooler temperatures for Wednesday and a chance for rain showers. Will need to watch Wednesday closely as depending on the position of the front and timing of moisture advection in southerly flow ahead of it, there could be a window for some strong storms across Baca county should a slower cold front timing prevail and a ribbon of higher CAPE can set up across the area. Odds are better to the south and east but it will bear watching as cooling aloft with the upper low could steepen mid level lapse rates sufficiently. Otherwise, EC and Canadian camps suggest some light to moderate snowfall along the Continental Divide, especially Wed as snow levels drop below pass levels with a few inches of accumulation possible. Would like to see a better moisture fetch with this system to have higher confidence in impactful snowfall amounts and the need for highlights along the Continental Divide, but there will be at least some light to moderate accumulations at times across Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes.

The southeast plains could see some more widespread overrunning precipitation if the slower closed low solution pans out on Wednesday, with lingering chances into Thursday as the flow becomes north to northeasterly on the back side of the sheared out upper low/trough axis extending from NE CO to the closed low over southern CA. Precipitation amounts on Thursday will be lighter. Of course if the faster GFS solution pans out, then precipitation chances will end sooner Thu as the system departs more quickly to the northeast. Either way, it will be cooler and more Fall like for all of the southeast plains Wednesday and Thursday. We will likely see a freeze (and possibly a hard freeze) across the San Luis Valley Wednesday and Thursday nights as NBM shows widespread 80-90% probabilities of 32 degrees or colder, and a 30-60% chance of 28 or colder both nights. The southeast plains could see a frost or light freeze Thursday and/or Friday nights as NBM shows odds of temperatures below 32 ranging from 20 to 30 percent across southern areas to as high 50 percent across Northern El Paso and Kiowa counties. Areas along/north of highway 50 may have the best chances of needing frost/freeze highlights one or both nights.

Otherwise dry and mild weather returns Friday through next weekend with temperatures returning to near climatological normals by the weekend. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. The main concern over the next 24 hours will be the gusty winds that develop over all of the forecast sites during the late morning. The South-southwest winds will persist after the gusting ceases in the evening. No precipitation is expected.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.