textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Another influx of monsoon moisture will bring an uptick in thunderstorms Sunday along the Continental Divide, and Monday all of the mountain burn scars.

- Drier and warmer for mid week with more isolated thunderstorm activity. - Moisture and thunderstorm chances increase again next weekend over the mountains

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A weak disturbance embedded within an active monsoon plume across Colorado will keep isolated showers going across the mountain areas into the morning hours with some persistent mid/high clouds across the remainder of southern CO. The orientation of the monsoon plume doesn't really change much for today with more energy riding through the flow glancing by to the west and north during the afternoon. The CAMS suggest the most widespread thunderstorm activity will be along the Continental Divide again today where highest precipitable waters (up to 140% of normal) will reside. East of the mountains, there will be a marginal increase in surface dew points, but CAPE only increases subtly, with most areas seeing under 500 J/kg with some pockets of up to 750 J/kg in the HREF means. Inverted V soundings suggest more of a wind risk from high based thunderstorms across the plains, while the heavy rainfall risk and potential for flash flooding will be more likely along/west of the Continental Divide. Will need to watch Willow burn scar for this, but signals don't seem strong enough to require any flash flood watches at this point. Overall, the forecast will be very similar to Saturday though temperatures may be a degree or two cooler given the cloud cover.

Thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours over the mountains within the active monsoon plume and under the trajectory of weak embedded disturbances. This will keep overnight lows on the warm side once again, even across some of the cooler mountain valley locations. Another cool front will push through the southeast plains during overnight, reinforced by thunderstorm outflows from northeast CO convection.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The most active day of the period for thunderstorms will be Monday as the next disturbance embedded within the southwesterly monsoon moisture feed moves across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Precipitable waters increase to 150% of normal along the Continental Divide. Meanwhile, southeasterly surface winds across the plains will bring a return of dew points in the 50s, boosting CAPEs to a little over 1000 J/kg across eastern portions of the southeast plains in some of the higher res models. This may boost storm strengths and precipitation efficiencies across the southeast mountains and plains as thunderstorms develop over the mountains during the afternoon and spread eastward into the southeast plains through the evening and overnight periods. There are some differences in the models with available low level moisture and resultant storm coverage across the southeast mountains and plains, with GFS on the drier side of the spectrum. Best chance for heavy rains will still be out west along the Continental Divide where Willow Creek burn scar may be the most vulnerable flash flood risk. Aspen Acres carries a bit more uncertainty where probabilities of QPF over Flash Flood thresholds is less than 20% in the latest runs. Will need to monitor this closely as the conceptually the risk could be higher should the low level moisture return be as robust as some of the high res models suggest. Flash Flood Watches may become necessary for if models hone in towards a wetter solution. For now axis of heavier precipitation appears to stay across western and northern Colorado.

A drying and warming trend returns for Tuesday through Thursday with mainly isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures rebound back into the mid to upper 90s by late week.

Another batch of monsoon moisture spreads northward across CO late week into next weekend in southwesterly flow aloft. This should bring another increase in thunderstorm probabilities across the mountains beginning Friday. Low level moisture remains rather lack luster across the plains which should keep thunderstorms more isolated and higher based with gusty winds, and localized light to moderate rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain above normal. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 516 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft aiding in increased monsoonal moisture advection, which in turn will produce enhanced mid and high level cloudiness across the forecast area through the TAF period.

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. SW surface flow will pick up by 17z-18z, then included PROB30 wording for variable gusts to 35 kt and -TSRA at all three terminal sites starting around 20z and lastingthrough 02z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.