textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot again Monday, with a slight upturn in shower/thunderstorm coverage across the mountains.

- Front arrives Monday night, bringing much cooler weather and greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

- Seasonal temperatures with widespread showers and thunderstorms then expected each afternoon and evening from Wednesday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms already underway over the southern Sangres and srn I-25 corridor early this afternoon, with more isolated activity just beginning to develop over the remainder of the higher terrain. For the rest of the afternoon into the evening, expect isolated to scattered convection over the mountains and interior valleys, while some isolated storms will be possible over the sern plains, mainly in Baca/ern Las Animas Counties. Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall the main storm threats, and will have to watch the Willow Burn Scar for potential heavier rainfall, as several CAMs show rather extensive t-storm coverage over the central mountains late this afternoon into the evening. Suppose we could get a quick, windy shower/t-storm along the I-25 corridor through Pueblo up into Colorado Springs, though coverage looks isolated at best. Overnight, initial wave of convection dies out toward sunset, then many models show redevelopment over the mountains (especially back toward the Continental Divide) after midnight, so will maintain some relatively high pops here into Mon morning.

On Monday, flow aloft increases as strong s/w trough moves through the nrn Rockies. Not much increase in pwat across the area through the day, as deeper moisture remains just south over NM. Thus expect lingering morning convection to diminish by midday as wave supporting it moves out the the region, before another round of mainly scattered showers/storms develops over the mountains in the afternoon, drifting into the I-25 corridor for the evening. Lee surface trough on the plains may end up forcing a few storms as well, especially along and east of a Trinidad/Las Animas/Eads line. Downslope flow should boost max temps a bit, and went with temps on the higher side of the blended guidance envelope, especially on the plains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Nrn Rockies wave will push a strong cold front south through the area Mon night, with boundary near the NM border by Tue morning. Much cooler air mass will cover the plains during the day Tue, with max temps 15-20 degf cooler than Mon at many locations. Over the mountains, slightly more moisture rotates north out of NM into the area, so expect an upturn in shower/thunderstorm coverage over much of the high terrain and interior valleys by afternoon. On the plains, air mass may be too cool/stable for much convection during the day, then increasing chances for showers/storms Tue evening as mountain convection moves e-ne, and storms along the old cold frontal boundary just south of the border potentially shift newd as well.

Nice monsoonal tap of moisture develops Wed-Sat, with strong trough along the West Coast and upper high over the southeastern U.S. Expect widespread showers/thunderstorms each day through the period, with heavy rainfall threat increasing, especially over area burn scars. May start to see some drying on Sun as western trough moves east and deeper moisture is shunted eastward, though refreshed post-frontal upslope behind potential weekend cold front may keep storms going over at least the ern mountains and plains. Temps will drift back back upward a few degf Wed-Fri, before potential cold front drops readings back below average for Sat/Sun.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB the next 24 hrs.

Enough of a risk of a tsra at KALS to include a prob30 from mid afternoon into the early evening, with gusty outflow winds over 30 kts and brief rain possible. Prevailing winds will remain out of the s-sw into the evening.

At KCOS and KPUB, breezy se winds expected this afternoon, with a few gusts 20-25 kts possible. Low chance (less than 20 percent) of a weak -tsra near both terminals this afternoon and early evening, though confidence is too low to include in the taf at this point. Winds will then weaken overnight and into early Monday morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.