textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot this weekend, with heat advisories over the lower Arkansas Valley and across the Pueblo/Colorado Springs/Canon City areas for Saturday and Sunday.

- High temperatures over 105 possible from Pueblo eastward both Saturday and Sunday.

- Mainly dry through Saturday (just isolated afternoon storms/sprinkles), then a gradual increase in moisture and shower/thunderstorm chances starting Sunday into mid week.

- Heavy rain/flash flooding may become a concern most areas by mid week into early next weekend, while temperatures slowly decrease each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 114 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Currently, center of the western U.S. upper high slowly pushing eastward into Colorado this afternoon, while just enough low level moisture lingers for some weak afternoon convection over the higher terrain, mainly across the srn Sangres. Overall, surface air mass is generally drier than 24 hrs ago, suggesting most convection this afternoon/early evening will be fairly weak, with sprinkles/wind/occasional lightning the main storm features. Will keep red flag warning up for Fremont/Pueblo Counties into the evening, with KPUB gusting 15-20 mph early this afternoon and HRRR showing increased wind gusts close to the 25 mph threshold for a few hrs this evening, though suspect critical conditions will end up being rather spotty and brief.

Center of the upper level high will stay fairly close to the 4 Corners over the weekend, bringing some of the hottest air of the summer into the region both Saturday and Sunday, as mid- level thermal ridge is overhead, while weak lee surface trough provides a downslope boost to maxes on the plains. Could see some readings over 105f both Sat/Sun from Pueblo east to Lamar, with Sat looking hottest at this point as downslope gradient appears slightly stronger. We'll likely mix deep enough to generate some high-based convection on Saturday afternoon at many locations, though with surface layer very dry (potentially 60 plus degf dewpoint depressions) and cloud levels very high (15k-18k ft), most activity will be virga/wind and sprinkles at best, and will keep pops out of the forecast at most locations. Slightly deeper mid level moisture rotates back eastward across Colorado on Sunday, and expect an upturn in shower/thunderstorm coverage/strength in the afternoon with increased gusty wind/lightning potential, though rainfall will still be light and spotty at best.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 114 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper high drifts south and weakens slowly Mon/Tue, before gradually shifting eastward into srn plains from Wed into the end of the week. Moisture increases slowly at first, with a gradual ramp up of convection across the mountains Mon/Tue as mid-level moisture works eastward around the high. Temps will remain hot, though readings will likely drift slowly downward each day as mid-level heights/temps fall. More substantial influx of moisture expected from mid to late week as high moves far enough east to allow flow to become more sly, bringing back a fairly classic late summer monsoon pattern to the region. Models/ensembles hint a potential front on the plains late week as well, with low level moisture surging westward toward the mountains. Looks like a wet/active period Thu into the weekend as a result, and heavy rain/flash flooding will likely become a concern, especially over fresh mountain burn scars.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will become sely at all terminals after 19z-21z this afternoon, with a few gusts to 20 kts at KPUB. Winds overnight then become light drainage under 8 kts.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-228. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086- 089-093-097-098. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089- 093-097-098.