textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow along the Continental Divide decreases quickly late this afternoon and evening.

- Windy Thursday and Friday with critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area, with snow for the central mountains

- Drier with lighter winds for the weekend into early next week before the weather pattern trends towards more unsettled mid to late week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 151 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Some much needed moisture continues to fall along the Continental Divide with heavy snow across elevations above 10000 feet. Have see snow in web cams mix down to 8500 feet at times but accumulations have stayed restricted to the higher elevations with snow covered roads at Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes. Upper trough passing to the north will spread increasing lift into the southeast plains while a dry slot punches across the southern mountains. This should tail back snow accumulations across the eastern San Juans by late afternoon with showers and thunderstorms blossoming to the east of the developing lee side surface low across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. CAPE is not all that impressive, maybe a few hundred J/kg. But deep layer shear is running around 40 kts so a strong storm or two can't be ruled out this afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail would be the primary risks. Otherwise some wrap around showers spread into the Palmer Divide and northern portions of the plains, but quickly departs by mid to late evening. There will also be a period of strong winds along the lee of the southern Sangre De Cristos as the upper trough passes and downward forcing provides a brief window for near high wind criteria between 21z and 03z in western Huerfano county. Probabilities of exceeding high wind criteria in HREF are under 50% and very localized to near the mountains, so will not issue any high wind highlights. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will be cooler, especially across the mountain valleys in the wake of the departing system.

Thursday will see a quick return to critical fire weather conditions across the southeast plains as westerly winds aloft increase ahead of the next upper low moving through the Pacific Northwest. Gusty westerly winds and low humidity will spread across the southeast plains during the afternoon. Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for all areas. Humidity levels across northern El Paso county stay too high and evening precipitation may help moisten fuel conditions at least temporarily, so they are not included in the Red Flag Warning. Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer with readings popping back up into the 70s to lower 80s across the plains, 50s and 60s for the valleys and a mix of mid 30s to lower 50s for the mountains. -KT

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 151 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Upper low moves through the northern U.S. Rockies Thursday night and Friday, with an impulse rotating around the southern periphery of the upper low across CO on Friday. With the storm track well to the north, this system will likely bring more wind than precipitation to southern CO. Snow will spread into the central mountains while a cold front drops through the southeast plains Friday morning. Unfortunately, moisture behind the cold front is not all that great, and post frontal humidity values may still end up below critical thresholds. Models vary on this, but the National Blend of Models suggests greatest likelihood of critical fire weather conditions on the plains may be along and south of highway 50. The San Luis Valley stands a good chance of seeing critical fire weather conditions so have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for this area. Will need to monitor Fremont and Teller county for possible additions as well. And depending on the low level moisture behind the front, the southeast plains could get in on the action too. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Friday for the San Luis Valley and will let another set of runs come in before making further expansions if needed. Otherwise, it will be cooler on Friday, but still near seasonal normals east of the mountains. Models are gradually pulling back on the potential for some post frontal showers across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Have trended pops downward a bit further, and suspect most areas will stay dry.

Upper ridging out west on Saturday flattens and shifts eastward through Monday. This will bring a return of warming temperatures and lighter winds. Can't rule out some spotty elevated fire weather conditions at times, but the risk looks low at this point. A system passing to the south may spread some showers across southern areas late Sunday into Monday, but these will be spotty and light.

The weather pattern looks more active again mid to late week with another system taking shape out west and potentially moving across the central Rockies during the period. Lots of uncertainty on timing and amplitude, but overall trends would be towards increasing winds, above normal temperatures, with a chance of showers at some point late week as the system moves through. Too much variability to hone in on these details so model blends seem the way to go. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KCOS and KPUB

Showers and increasing south to southwesterly winds will spread off the mountains and into the KCOS and KPUB TAF sites between 19-20z. Cigs will likely stay VFR but couldn't rule out a brief high end MVFR if TAF sites take a direct hit from a stronger cell. Overall this won't amount to much precipitation and showers will exit to the northeast with dry conditions by 00z. Winds will tail down overnight as well though will stay breeziest at KPUB as westerly winds funnel down the Arkansas River in the wake of the departing system.

KALS

Southwest winds will continue with gusts to around 40 kts with brief -SHRA and VFR to MVFR cigs through 21z, then partial clearing will spread in from the southwest shifting winds from a more westerly direction and decreasing shower coverage. Winds will decrease during the early evening with clearing skies.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ058- 060-066-068. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ224. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ227>237.