textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger continues Sunday into Tuesday.

- Mountain rain and high elevation snow Tuesday.

- High fire danger returns Thursday and Friday, with a possibly increase in precipitation chances for Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Currently...an embedded upper wave is currently lifting northeast across Colorado this afternoon. This has triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms, initially over the higher terrain and Raton Mesa area. Temperatures have warmed nicely across the Plains with 60s and 70s, while the San Luis Valley is in the 40s and 50s.

Rest of Today and Tonight...the upper wave embedded in the flow will quickly lift northeast across Colorado into this evening. Moist, low level southerly flow has kept dewpoints in the 40s east of I-25, and recent analysis indicates SBCAPE values in the 500 to 1000 j/kg range, while 0-6 km shear is near 30 kts. There are a couple of threats this afternoon, one being gusty outflow winds along the I-25 corridor as storms move off the higher terrain and encounter a deeper dry surface layer. As storms progress east into deeper moisture, hail looks to become an added threat. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph may be possible along the I-25 corridor, and hail half to 3/4 of an inch may be possible to the east. High-res model guidance is in good agreement with this activity shifting eastward quickly, exiting into Kansas by 8 to 9 PM. Dry conditions look to prevail after the mid evening hours into Sunday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s across the Plains, and lower 30s across the San Luis Valley.

Sunday...dry air will filter in across the region in southwest flow by Sunday morning, with high fire danger into the afternoon. Dewpoints will fall quickly during the morning hours, with humidity values in the 5 to 10 percent range for most lower elevation areas by the afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will pick up by the afternoon, with gusts 30 to 45 mph expected. This will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions for much of the area, and extreme caution is advised with any outdoor burning activities. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Temperatures will warm nicely with 70s to mid 80s across the Plains and 60s for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Models continue to struggle with the upper pattern evolution from mid to late next week. One thing they do agree on is continued high fire danger across the Plains.

Sunday night through Monday...persistent dry southwest flow will prevail through Monday across southern Colorado. Flow aloft continues to increase as the next upper disturbance approaches, with another day of widespread high fire danger across the region. Humidity values will fall back below 10 percent, and southwest winds 35 to 50 mph will be possible, leading to the high fire danger. Extreme caution is advised with any outdoor burning activities. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday afternoon, and added Lake, Chaffee and Teller Counties. After overnight lows in the 40s across the Plains, high temperatures Monday will reach back into the 70s and 80s.

Tuesday...a quick moving upper trough will eject out of Utah and into Nebraska on Tuesday. Expect high elevation snow to move into the Continental Divide Monday night and prevail through Tuesday evening. Several inches of accumulation may be possible above 9 kft, with rain below that. Given the trajectory of the trough, limited impacts are forecast across the Plains, with the exception of the Palmer Divide where a stray shower or two may be possible as a cold front arrives late in the afternoon. Further south, more westerly flow will likely lead to another high fire danger day, especially for areas along the south of Highway 50 where humidity values will remain low, and winds strongest. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday, with upper 60s and 70s across the Plains. The cold front arrives overnight, with northwesterly flow and cooler air working into the area. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s for most of the Plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...models begin to diverge Wednesday with large differences into next weekend. Upper shortwave ridging will move quickly across the region on Wednesday, with spotty critical fire weather conditions in gap wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor. By Thursday, the next upper trough takes shape across the western states, but differences in track and timing arise. The GFS and Canadian are more northerly and progressive, with periods of high elevation snow, and high fire danger for the Plains and San Luis Valley Thursday and Friday. THe ECMWF closes off an upper low over Utah, and very slowly track the system east, with more widespread precipitation Friday into Saturday. NBM guidance trended with the ECMWF with cooler temperatures Friday into Saturday, and more widespread precipitation chances across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region by early afternoon, moving near KALS, KCOS and KPUB this afternoon. Reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty outflow winds will likely accompany thunderstorms that pass over the terminals. Overall, winds will be gusty at each terminal into this evening, with clearing conditions into the overnight hours.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220>222- 224>237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ220>222-224-226>237.