textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- An uptick in shower and storm coverage across the Southeast Mtns and plains through Wednesday, leading to the potential for heavy rain and low threat of flash flooding for the Aspen Acres burn area.

- Warming and drying trend for Thursday and Friday, with spotty critical fire weather conditions developing over and near the higher terrain.

- Up and down weather pattern for the weekend into early next week, as a series of passing weather systems brings cooler and then warmer temperatures. along with chances of precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate southwest flow aloft in place across the region, with the center of a large upper high across the Southern High Plains as an embedded shortwave is translating across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies at this time. GOES Water vapor and Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicates ample subtropical/monsoonal moisture in place, with PWATS running from 150 to 175 percent of normal across the Desert SW, through the Southern Rockies and into South Central and Southeast Colorado at this time. With the moisture in place, regional radars continue to indicate scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms, translating out across the southeast plains early this morning, with the Northern Rockies passing upper waves associated cold front pushing south and west across the northeastern Colorado at this time.

For today and tonight, upper level flow becomes more westerly with another embedded wave progged to translate across the Intermountain West through the day, which continues across the Northern Rockies into tonight. The ample monsoonal moisture in place, along with increased low level moisture with low level upslope flow behind said passing front across the plains, will lead to better coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially across the Pikes Peak region and the Southeast mountains and Raton Mesa, where latest higher res model data supports storm development from the late afternoon and evening. Storms continue out across the far southeast plains from the late evening before pushing into western Kansas early Wednesday morning. With the ample moisture, progged CAPE up to 1000 j/kg across the lower eastern slopes into the I-25 Corridor, and up to 1500 j/kg across the far southeast plains, and increased shear, could storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, with an increased threat of flash flooding, especially across the Aspen Acres burn area. However, with the moderate flow aloft, storms will be moving, and with the best coverage of storms expected to be north and south of the burn area, we have decided against issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar at this time. Needless to say, we will need to continue to monitor later model data and radar trends, with later shifts possibly issuing a flood products for the Aspen Acres burn area. We also can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms producing gusty outflows of 50 to 60 mph and hail to near an inch in diameter, especially across the Raton Mesa and far southeast plains. With said passing front and better coverage of showers and storms, temperatures will be cooler than the past few days but still look to be slightly above seasonal norms, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, along with 60s and 70s across the higher terrain and into the 80s across the high mountain valleys, with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged across the region for Wednesday through Friday, as upper level ridging builds back across the Southern Rockies and several embedded waves translate through the stronger westerly flow aloft across the Northern Tier. Model data supports drier air starting to filter across western Colorado and into south central Colorado on Wednesday, with another secondary cold front pushing across the eastern plains early Wednesday, keeping enough low level moisture in place for scattered showers and storms across the southeast mountains Wednesday afternoon, with storms spreading east across the far southeast plains once again through Wednesday night. Will again have to watch for coverage and intensity of storms around the Aspen Acres burn area for possible flash flooding. For Thursday, and into Friday, the much drier continues to work into the Rockies, leading to only a few possible showers and storms across the far southeast plains on Thursday, and mainly dry conditions areawide on Friday. The dry and breezy westerly flow will also develop spotty meteorological critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Central Mtns on Thursday, which continue and spread east into the mid Arkansas River Valley and portions of the I-25 Corridor on Friday. As for temperatures, Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the week, with highs mainly in the 80s across the plains, with 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Temperatures warm back into the 90s across the plains by Friday.

For Saturday and into early next week, models continue to indicate differences in timing and location of occasional passing wave within the moderate to strong westerly flow aloft across the Northern Tier. This will bring in periods of moisture and cooler temperatures with possible fronts across the Plains on Saturday and again on Monday. Otherwise, there looks to be another influx of subtropical moisture across the Desert SW into western Colorado, leading to chances of of daily showers and storms, especially over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR cigs will persist overnight with -SHRA possible at times. Best chance will be at KCOS overnight as a cool front pushes southward bringing some enhanced northerly winds into the area after 08z. Otherwise, winds will swing around from the east to southeast at KCOS and KPUB by afternoon and from the south to southwest at KALS at around 10-15 kts. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains during the afternoon and push off into the adjacent plains/valleys after 23z. The best chance for -TSRA on station will be at KPUB and KCOS and will carry a Prob30 for both with gusty outflow winds up to 35 kts possible. Some brief MVFR vis with localized +RA could accompany the stronger storms. These will push east of the KCOS and KPUB terminals by 02-04z. Odds for -SHRA or -TSRA at KALS looks too low at this point to include in the TAFs but this will be monitored closely with future forecast packages. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.