textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Uptick in thunderstorm chances will continue across the mountains through the week, while southeast plains remain dry with near normal temperatures

- Convection shifts westward over the weekend to the Continental Divide region with drier and warmer conditions across the southeast mountains and plains

- Increasing odds for wetting rains across the southeast mountains and plains early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Today should be fairly similar to yesterday with another round of thunderstorms firing over the mountains around noon, and spreading across the adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening. Northeasterly steering currents should keep storms tied to the mountains as they drift slowly southwestward through the afternoon and evening. This should keep rain chances limited to the mountains and valleys, while the southeast plains remaining dry. With increasing precipitable waters on Wednesday (running up to 150% of normal across the mountains/valleys), thunderstorm coverage increases in high res models. Latest NBM pops reflect this uptick with 60 to 80 percent pops across the mountains and 30-50 percent across the interior valleys. Some spotty heavy rainfall will be possible which could cause flash flooding of burn scars. Willow fire area will be of primary concern for Wednesday.

Otherwise temperatures should be fairly similar to yesterday with highs in the lower 90s across the plains, 80s for the valleys and 60s and 70s for the mountains. -KT

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A gradual uptick in thunderstorms will continue through Friday across the mountains and valleys as higher precipitable waters edge a little eastward each day. Precipitable waters will range from around 100-150% of normal each day with highest values along the Continental Divide and western slopes. CAPE increases a little each day as well, though stays well below 1000 J/kg, with weak easterly steering currents and deep layer shears running under 20 kts suggesting locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding being the primary risk. Still looks like greatest risk will be for our western burn scars (Willow), but some subtle eastward shifts in the moisture will need to be watched closely. Otherwise, temperatures remain near to a little above normal across the plains where it will remain dry as storms stay confined to the mountains and valleys.

The weekend will see only subtle changes in the overall pattern. As the upper high moves over the Rockies, this does shift the southerly monsoon moisture tap a bit farther west, resulting in a drier forecast for the southeast mountains. The southeast plains will see temperatures climb above the century mark again with afternoon humidity values dropping to around 15%. Winds should stay just below critical fire weather thresholds under ridging aloft. But bottom line, hot and dry east of the Continental Divide will be the main message.

Best chances for precipitation east of the mountains will come early next week as the upper high shifts westward, putting southern CO under northwesterly flow aloft along the eastern side of the upper high. Long range models/ensemble means suggest recycled monsoon moisture will round the top of the upper high while troughing to the northeast eventually send a cold front with increasing low level moisture/upslope flow into the southeast mountains and plains. Confidence in the details are still a bit sketchy, but the potential pattern change does suggest an increased chance for wetting rains to spread eastward across the plains as early as Monday evening, and more likely Tuesday into Wednesday. This will also cool temperatures back down to near normal into early next week. Flash flooding of some of our eastern mountain burn scars will become a greater concern as we enter this period. -KT

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 518 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated convection will develop across the higher terrain this afternoon, but is not expected to affect KCOS and KPUB. There will be a chance of some thunder/gusty outflow winds between 22z and 01z at KALS. Surface winds will predominantly be out of the E-SE through the period, with gusts 25-30 kts possible between 18z and 22z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.