textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight, with strong to severe storms possible over the plains. All severe hazards will be on the table.

- Cooler and less active Monday. A gradual warming trend returns throughout the rest of the week along with daily showers and storms across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Upper trough will continue pushing through the region today, with the center of the main low passing a bit north of us. Post-frontal upslope will be present throughout the morning, with plenty of low- level moisture, setting us up for another round of convection. Though temperatures will be a bit cool, with highs only in the 70s to low-80s, instability will quickly ramp up by early afternoon. Latest models are showing 1-2 thousand J/kg of CAPE over the eastern plains, though initially instability along I-25 may be a bit lacking. Current expectation is for convection to fire over the Palmer Divide around mid-afternoon, spreading in coverage and intensity through the rest of the day and into tonight.

Later this evening, a cold front will push in from the north, allowing convection to move across the southeast plains and linger through much of the night. With the amount of moisture in place, the forcing from the passing trough, and the more localized enhancements from the incoming front, some severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and into tonight, with best chances north of Highway 50 where instability will be the greatest. Hail and wind will be our main threats, with heavy rain following, as well as a low-end chance for a tornado or two. The severe potential will peak in the early evening, but will dwindle overnight as we lose daytime heating, though that will still depend on how the shear profile evolves over time and what kinds of cell interactions occur. Overall, by Monday morning we should just have some lingering rain showers.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Monday and Tuesday will find us in between systems, with a short- lived upper ridge in place as the previous low moves east, and a second low pushes in from California. On Monday, increasing westerly winds aloft will force drier air into the area. Other than lingering showers over the SE plains early in the day, we should remain mostly dry with highs in the 70s. On Tuesday, flow aloft turns more southwesterly as a trough deepens over the western CONUS, letting more moisture back into the higher terrain. Afternoon showers and storms will be more likely over the mountains, especially further west, while the plains only get some isolated activity.

Looking later in the week, models still show a lot of variability between solutions as well as individual runs. General consensus shows the upper low pushing northeast around midweek, with hints at a high pressure center building in over the region by Friday, though that solution remains uncertain. Overall, we should be seeing a slow increase in temperatures, along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms centered over the higher terrain and our southern border.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 529 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather this forecast period. There is a low chance for thunderstorms to impact COS and PUB later this evening for a couple hours though. Confidence on this potential has not changed at this time, and have maintained the prob30 in the TAFs. Diurnally driven winds steadily increase later this morning, with stronger winds and gusts likely observed in the afternoon and early evening due to outflow winds at COS and PUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.