textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy again today, with continued critical and near critical fire weather conditions.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, which continue into the overnight hours behind a stronger cold front.

- Much cooler on Sunday, with good chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.

- Warmer, drier and breezy weather for the middle to end of next week will bring critical fire weather conditions back across south central and southeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderating westerly flow aloft across the region, as one passing wave is translating across the Northern Rockies, with another stronger wave digging across the Intermountain West at this time. Water vapor and satellite imagery is indicating an increase in available moisture across the Desert Southwest, with convective debris from Eastern New Mexico storms spreading across the far southeast plains at this time.

Latest models are a tad slower with the stronger cold front, now pushing across the plains through the evening hours. This will allow for warmer conditions across the plains as a weak northerly surge through the late morning and afternoon helps to mix down warmer air aloft. Highs across the plains to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with 60s, 70s and 80s expected across the higher terrain. Breezy westerly winds across the higher terrain and developing north to northeast winds across the plains, with develop critical and near critical fire weather conditions again today. The increasing slug of moisture from the Desert SW will offset critical fire extent, with Red Flag conditions still likely across the Central Mtns and portions of Pueblo county. Said slug of moisture will also help to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, with the best coverage across the southern mtns.

The secondary, stronger cold front pushing across the plains through the evening, will push low level moisture back to the lower eastern slopes, with stratus developing expected across the plains overnight. Moist low level upslope flow, combined with warm westerly flow aloft, with keep chances of showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, across the Eastern mountains and plains into early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Latest model data continues to support cool, cloudy and stable conditions across the plains on Sunday, with increased available moisture leading to modest CAPE progged over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon. This, combined with another disturbance within the westerly flow aloft, will bring a round of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain Sunday afternoon, with showers spreading east into the more stable atmosphere in place across the plains. Temperatures will be well below seasonal levels in the 60s and 70s across the plains, with 50s, 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged for Monday and Tuesday, and will lead to temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels. There will be enough available moisture to support daily chances of showers and storms, with the potential for stronger storms with said northwest flow aloft.

Increasing westerly flow remains progged across the region for the middle to end of next week, as upper level ridging across the Desert SW remains progged to build into the Rockies. Increasing flow will bring critical fire weather conditions back across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, along with temperatures back to well above seasonal levels, with triple digits readings possible across the southeast plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 539 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Conditions will remain VFR through today at all three terminals with -SHRA/-TSRA developing over the mountains and spreading off into the adjacent valleys and plains. While cigs will remain VFR, enhanced winds from outflows will dominate wind directions, especially at KALS. KCOS and KPUB should see predominantly north to northeast winds behind a front which could stall out over or near KPUB by late morning. This will lead to a difficult wind forecast for KPUB as winds will be westerly to the west of the front, and more easterly behind it. For now, have the front pushing through PUB between 16z and 18z and will need to make changes as the timing becomes more clear. -SHRA/-TSRA could affect both terminals, especially this evening into tonight as cigs drop into the MVFR to IFR category towards dawn. KCOS will see the lowest cigs with KPUB staying VFR to high end MVFR by dawn Sunday. -KT

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Breezy westerly winds across the higher terrain and developing north to northeast winds across the plains, will develop critical and near critical fire weather conditions again today. A slug of moisture from the Desert Southwest will offset critical fire extent, with Red Flag Warnings in place across the Central mountains and portions of Pueblo county from 11 AM to 7 PM. Said slug of moisture will also help to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, with the best coverage across the Southern mountains. A stronger cold front will bring much cooler conditions on for Sunday, especially across the Eastern plains. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain Sunday afternoon, with showers spreading east into the more stable atmosphere in place across the plains.

A slow warming and drying trend remains in the offing for early next week, with increasing westerly flow aloft into the middle of the week bringing well above seasonal temperatures and the return of critical fire weather conditions.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-228.