textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with gusty winds to 60 mph possible with stronger storms

- Red Flag Conditions and high fire danger return Sunday and Monday with strong winds winds and very low humidity

- Weather system Tuesday may bring accumulating snow to the Continental Divide, mainly scattered showers elsewhere

. Potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions returns for the end of the week, as next upper trough moves into the wrn U.S.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Still a few showers/sprinkles over the sern plains early this morning, with some weak echoes across the central mountains as well. Doubt we'll have anything more than a sprinkle at most locations through the night, and have cut back pops considerably through this morning. By afternoon, approaching upper wave and increasing mid-level moisture should help to fire scattered thunderstorms over the mountains around noon, with at least a few CAMs suggesting a broken line of storms moving through the plains during the afternoon, reaching the KS border early in the evening. CAPE in the 500-1000 J/KG range and forecast cloud bases of 8k-10k AGL suggest gusty outflow winds will be the main storm threat, with D-CAPE along I-25 around 800 J/KG by mid-afternoon. Suppose we could see a marginal severe hail threat near the KS border toward 00z where low-level moisture is slightly more plentiful, though even here, strong winds over 60 mph will be the main storm feature. Activity wanes quickly in the evening, as wave departs and drier air overspreads the region.

On Sunday, swly mid/upper flow strengthen across the region, as upper trough deepens along the West Coast. Widespread critical fire weather conditions look likely, with winds gusting 40-50 mph and humidity around 10 percent, and have upgraded the fire weather watch to a warning as a result. Max temps will continue well above seasonal averages, with readings in the 60s/70s common, and a few 80s on the plains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Upper trough moves into the Great Basin on Monday, with deep southwest flow across Colorado. Expect another period of high fire danger Monday afternoon and evening, and have issued a new fire weather watch for the eastern plains and San Luis Valley, where again winds will gust 40-55 mph. Mid-level moisture increases over the high terrain in the afternoon, so have held off on a fire weather highlight for most mountain zones, where it may be difficult to drive relative humidity below 15 percent for the required 3 hrs. Could even see a few showers back along the Divide by late afternoon as well, as lift begins to increase across wrn Colorado. Maxes again look very warm, though locations in the mountains may see readings drop a few degf as mid level temps begin to fall.

On Mon night into Tue, upper trough swings through the area and ejects into the central plains, while cold front drops south across Colorado Tue afternoon. Accumulating snow likely along the Continental Divide as system comes across, with at least a few inches possible over the higher peaks/passes. Much less chance for precip elsewhere, though perhaps a brief burst of showers will be possible as cold pool aloft steepens lapse rates as it moves across Tue afternoon. Ahead of the cold front on the plains, air mass remains very dry, and with gusty west winds forecast, we'll likely see areas of critical fire weather conditions, especially along and south of the Arkansas River.

Some weak trailing energy may keep a few showers going Tue night, though trend of most models/ensembles the past 24 hrs is toward a faster exit of the system from the area, which suggest most if not all precip ends by early Wed. NBM still holds onto some isolated pops through the day Wed as previous solutions were deeper/slower, though expect these precip chances to disappear in the next day or two if drier model trend continues. In fact, if system exits as fast a 00z deterministic models suggest, we could end up with pockets of elevated fire danger over the ern mountains by afternoon.

For Thu/Fri, high fire danger returns to much of the area, as sw flow increases again ahead of next digging wrn U.S. upper trough. System then moves through late Fri into the weekend, with potential for showers and much colder air, though model strength and track differences begin to increase as we go through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 536 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2006

Showers and thunderstorms will spread across southern CO this afternoon affecting all three terminals in the 18z-00z timeframe. Southerly winds will pick up by 16-19z, latest at KPUB, with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Thunderstorms after 18z will be capable of producing erratic gusty outflow winds up to 50 kts, though 40kts will be more likely at the terminals unless they take a direct hit from a thunderstorm. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest at KCOS and KPUB as the line of thunderstorms pushes east of the terminals after 23z-00z with winds becoming light overnight under clear skies. KALS will see winds shift from the south and become light after 06z. Any Cigs over the terminals today from -TSRA will likely stay in the VFR category. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220>222- 224>237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ222-224-226>237.