textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued upturn in convective strength/coverage today and Tuesday, with the best chance for measurable rainfall occurring on Tuesday

- Drier along the Continental Divide Wed, while storm chances continue over the southeast mountains and across the southeast plains

- Generally warmer and drier Thu/Fri, though isolated storm chances remain over the eastern mountains and plains - Some hints of potentially cooler and wetter weather possible next weekend, though confidence is low at this point

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Low levels have moistened slightly across southern Colorado tonight, and even a few sprinkles/light showers were drifting across the area early this morning. This increased moisture should set the stage for better coverage of convection over the region this afternoon and evening, and at least a few storms will get strong enough to produce some measurable rainfall, mainly over the mountains along the Continental Divide and across the far southeast plains. Shallow moisture/weak instability (CAPE of 300-600 J/KG) will be the limiting factor on many storms today, suggesting the bulk of convection will be on the dry side, producing lightning, gusty winds but only light rainfall. and with ongoing drought, there may be an increased risk of a few lightning started fires over the higher terrain. Max temps today will continue to climb, with 80s/90s across the plains, 70s/80s valleys, 60s/70s mountains. Tonight, at least a few CAMs keep convection going over the plains well into the evening, then upper wave lifts out of AZ/NM, spreading precip back into srn CO (mainly the ern San Juans) by early Tue morning. Have made some made some adjustments to blended model pops, mainly to keep precip going longer on the plains, and to expand areas that potentially could see showers along the Continental Divide overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

On Tuesday, upper wave moves northward through Colorado, with widespread showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. While moisture will be more plentiful Tue, instability continues to be limited, as clouds and cooler temps keep surface CAPE in the 400-800 J/KG range. Wave timing could also be an issue, as a few models bring the best lift through early in the day before max heating. Still expecting measurable precip at many locations Tue, but amounts will be light, generally 0.10-0.20 inches, though a few pockets of over a quarter inch may be possible over the mountains (especially the ern San Juans). Max temps Tue should fall back some 5-10 degf from Mondays's readings.

On Wednesday, upper low remains over the Great Basin, with s-sw flow across Colorado bringing back some drier air to the region, especially across the mountains. Better moisture and instability remain over the southeast mountains and plains, and expect another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms here, with perhaps a stronger storm or two as CAPE pushes above 1000 J/K by late day.

Still appears general drying/warming trend on track for Thu/Fri, as upper low weakens and moves into the nrn Rockies, while drier mid-level flow develops across srn CO. Low level moisture won't be too far away, and could see at least a chance for storms on the plains by Friday as higher dewpoint air potentially sloshes back westward. Better chance for storms then returns for the weekend to the eastern mountains and plains as moisture increases, though a good deal of spread in model forecasts and weak forcing keep confidence low in any particular solution at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions expected today with increasing mid and high cloudiness through the morning at all three terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and move off into the adjacent TAF sites in the afternoon bringing the potential for gusty erratic outflow winds up to 40 kts and brief rainfall. Risk is high enough for at least convective thunderstorm outflow winds to carry a prob30 group at all three terminals for -TSRA during the late afternoon and evening. Showers will decrease during the evening but increase again overnight as clouds thicken and lower and another round of showers spread up from the south. KALS will be most likely to see -SHRA on site towards Tue AM and cigs could drop into the MVFR category towards the tail end of the 24 hour taf valid period. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.