textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions will return for today and Wed and have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for Wed to a Red Flag Warning.

- Severe thunderstorms possible far southeast plains today and Wed with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks.

- Isolated high based showers/thunderstorms/virga possible over portions of the mountains and I-25 corridor today which could cause gusty erratic outflows and exacerbate fire suppression efforts,but provide little to no beneficial rainfall

- 100 degree heat returns for Thursday and Friday across the plains with more critical fire weather conditions likely. Fire Weather Watch hoisted for Thursday for the mountains and I-25 corridor which may need to expand eastward depending on winds.

- Hope for rain increases late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1255 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

After a volatile day for fire weather conditions on Monday, winds decrease a bit for today but will still gust well into the Red Flag Criteria for the mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon and evening. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on track even though winds will be more southeasterly across portions of the plains and humidities slightly higher than the day before, even across the mountains. Wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will spread down from the higher peaks into the lower elevations during the afternoon with a more southerly component to the flow aloft as the next impulse over the Desert Southwest lifts northeastward across western/northern CO during the late afternoon and evening. There is some mid/high based moisture with this (hence minimum humidities in the 10-15 percent range...instead of the single digits), so convection will fire over the mountains in the afternoon and spread eastward across the plains where it will interact with more moisture and better CAPE to produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern counties of Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. But to the west of the dry line, any isolated high based convection will carry the risk of erratic and enhanced gusty outflow winds which could exacerbate fire fighting efforts. Have added some pops to account for this, though the chances for any appreciable moisture where its needed looks low.

Winds will stay gusty into the evening as the impulse lifts northward into WY in the evening. Red Flag Warnings come down at 10 PM which still looks good. Humidity recover will remain poor along the lee of the southeast mountains tonight due to enhanced westerly drainage winds, but some of the higher valleys should cool off well enough to bring humidities up above 50 percent.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Not much change in the overall pattern for Wednesday through Friday with continued troughing out west, keeping relatively strong southwest flow over CO through the period as impulses eject northeastward through the flow. Have upgraded Fire Weather Watches for Wednesday to Red Flag Warnings. Thursday looks like yet another critical fire weather day for the mountains, and adjacent I-25 corridor with conditions a little worse than Wednesday as temperatures heat up again. Temperatures across the southeast plains will crest around or over 100. Hoisted another Fire Weather Watch for the mountains, valleys and I-25 corridor for Thursday. It is possible this may need to be expanded eastward another tier or two of counties, but winds look strongest and humidity driest along and west of the lee side surface low for now.

Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday with temperatures in the 100- 105 degree range across the southeast plains. This may be another critical fire weather day, though the building ridge to the south may decrease the winds aloft a touch. Humidity values will likely be in the single digits, so even with marginal wind criteria, it could still be a high impact day for fire spread.

Saturday looks similarly hot and dry, though winds aloft look lighter as weak disturbance rides through the northern periphery of the upper ridge. We could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms this day, but overall, any precipitation looks spotty and light and favoring northern areas if any occurs.

We may finally get a break from the heat and wind starting Sunday as ridging to the south builds in, spreading moisture northward over the region and bringing increasing odds for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with wetting rains. Increased cloud cover and afternoon convection should drop temperatures back into the 90s for the lower elevations instead of the low 100s, with 80s for the valleys and 60s and 70s across the mountains. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, though all terminals could see areas of smoke, at times, from area wildfires. Breezy southerly winds at the terminals to continue through the evening, with low end chances of seeing high based -shra/-trsa at all taf sites through 02Z. Main threat at the terminals will be gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45kts. Winds to diminish to more diurnal components through the evening and overnight hours, with more gusty southerly winds developing once again at the tail end of this taf period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Critical Fire Weather conditions are likely for parts of the district Today through Friday with Red Flag Warnings issued for Today and Wednesday, and another Fire Weather Watch posted for Thursday. The strongest winds and lowest humidity values will occur across the mountain areas. As temperatures heat up for late week, it is possible that the Fire Weather Watch for Thursday may need to expand eastward across more of the southeast plains depending on the strength of the winds.

There will be heightened concern for high based showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and I-25 corridor today. These could bring gusty erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph or better which could exacerbate fire suppression efforts. While these thunderstorms will be isolated in coverage, it is likely that afternoon winds will become dominated by thunderstorm outflows. Unfortunately, little if any moisture is expected from these thunderstorms, except east of the dry line across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties where storms could become severe.

Friday looks like another critical fire weather day, then winds may become lighter into Saturday with thunderstorm chances increasing for Sunday into early next week. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>233. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220>230-233. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>230.