textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings extended through tonight in and near the southeast mountains for another burst of damaging wind potential overnight.

- Snow and blowing snow continues across the Continental Divide with snow squalls possible as snow spreads into the southeast mountains this evening.

- Blowing dust accompanied by locally enhanced winds possible this afternoon and evening, especially near showers as they roll off the mountains.

- Return of critical fire weather conditions expected for Thursday along the I-25 corridor and southern portions of the southeast plains.

UPDATE

Issued at 549 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Latest high-res guidance has shown a persistent signal of strong winds developing across eastern Fremont County and Pueblo County late this evening and through the overnight hours as showers push of the higher terrain and decay, pushing strong outflow across these areas. Given this, the latest forecast has been updated to increase winds in these localized regions, as well as extending the High Wind Warning that is in place to 5AM MST tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 116 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Main burst of strong winds still expected this afternoon across southern valleys, mountains and southern portions of the I-25 corridor as showers out west are progged to cross the San Luis Valley and into the southeast mountains. Downward transport of momentum and acceleration from downbursts may be the primary mechanism for damaging gusts initially, and National Blend of Models are still picking up on the potential for high wind gusts in these regions. Data from the latest high res models, suggest the greatest risk will be across southern portions of the High Wind Warning area for the more synoptic winds. As shortwave energy ejects eastward, snow squall parameters maximize along the Continental Divide and spread eastward into the Sangre De Cristo mountains this evening. Some of these showers may spread off the mountains into the adjacent I-25 corridor before rapidly dissipating in the downslope flow. With snow squalls a risk, opted to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for the Sangre De Cristo range to raise awareness, even though snowfall amounts will likely be on the light side of the spectrum. Higher areas could pick up a quick 2 to 6 inches, though impacts from rapid decreases in visibility would be the more treacherous ingredient. Snow squall warnings will be possible should locations in the advisory areas be impacted.

Showers that survive as they push off the hills will not only bring a high wind gust potential, but could also cause blowing dust if the land surface is conducive. Dust storm advisories or warnings may become necessary through early evening.

Meanwhile, RHs are dropping across the plains as winds increase. With a few more hours to go, and values right at or slightly above thresholds, Red Flag Warnings still look on target through 7 PM this evening. Far southeast plains will have the lowest humidities (around 10 percent) though not expected winds to be as strong as they are closer to the mountains.

Winter weather highlights will come down through the evening, as rapid drying takes place behind the wave. Strong pressure rises crossing the mountains spread another 3-6 hour window for damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph along the east facing slopes of the southeast mountains including the Pikes Peak region between 10 PM and 5 AM. High Wind Watches were upgraded to High Wind Warnings, and Warnings across the southern mountains were extended until early Thursday morning. Will need to watch the Pueblo and eastern Fremont county areas closely late this evening into the early overnight hours as HRRR suggests a period of near high wind criteria gusts will be possible. If this trend continues in high res model runs, further expansions of the High Wind Warnings may be necessary.

Otherwise, winds will decrease in the morning but still remain windy with dry air spreading off into the adjacent plains in the afternoon. A cold front backdoors and stalls out across the far eastern plains while dew points near the mts drop into the negative digits. It will be cooler tomorrow, but in spite of this, humidity levels will drop below 15 percent. So upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. Later shifts may need to monitor add another tier of counties to the east depending on the position of this front. For now, winds look to come up shy, and speeds tomorrow will top out in the 30-40 mph range instead of the 50-60+ mph range we've had of late. Meanwhile, some scattered snow showers will be possible across the Continental Divide, but additional accumulations remain light. -KT

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 116 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Another upper trough drops through the Great Basin into western CO Thursday night with snow ramping up along the Continental Divide and spreading eastward into the southeast mountains and adjacent plains by Friday morning. Models have come in closer agreement to a more open less amplified wave as it moves across on Friday which would bring a brief round of rain and snow showers to the plains but only spotty light precipitation amounts. The eastern San Juans could pick up another 4 to 8 inches of snow with 2 to 4 inches across the remainder of the mountains along the Continental Divide and crest of the Sangre De Cristos. This system does not look as wind driven for the snow across the mountains as the previous couple have, but as the surface low kicks eastward, winds along the southern I-25 corridor could ramp up again with gusts up to 50 mph in the afternoon. Fortunately, RH looks to stay above 15 percent so no fire weather highlights look necessary at this point. The best chance of showers across the plains will be along and north of highway 50.

Saturday and Sunday look dry and cool with lighter winds as the next upper ridge translates in. The flow aloft flattens ahead of the next west coast system bringing warm, dry, downslope flow. We may start flirting with Red Flag Criteria once more along the I-25 corridor on Tuesday. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 425 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will slowly decrease heading into the evening and overnight hours, though will quickly increase again early tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing becomes established. In addition, snow showers are expected to push off the higher terrain and race eastward right at the beginning of this TAF period. These showers may be squall like in nature, and could bring quick reductions in visibility and sudden increases in winds. Outside of that though, dry conditions are expected to prevail, with clouds lessening overnight.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will slowly decrease heading into the evening hours. However, decaying showers off of the higher terrain are expected to push out strong winds during the late evening to early overnight hours, especially for KPUB. Winds and wind gusts are expected to increase quickly during these periods and persist for at least a few hours, before decreasing again heading into the early morning hours. Winds are also expected to rise again early tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing becomes established. Beyond all of that, dry conditions with occasional pockets of clouds early is anticipated.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ058-059-061-066-067. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ060- 068. High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ069>071- 077. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ072>075- 078>080-083-086>088. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for COZ072>075. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for COZ222- 227>230-233. High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for COZ081-082-084- 085. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ227-228- 230>237. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ086- 089-093.