textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday afternoon for the eastern San Juan mountains and the Upper Rio Grande Valley, with stream/river flooding and rock/mud slides possible.

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain for the Continental Divide, focusing on the San Juan Range through Friday, with the heaviest amounts forecast for today. - Generally warm across the plains through Friday, then much cooler and unsettled this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Currently...Pacific low sitting just off the CA coast late tonight is certainly bringing the advertised moisture to western CO, with 12 hr rainfall amounts as of 11 pm at around .5 to 1.0 inch across the sw mts, and .2 to .4 of an inch across the rest of the higher terrain. Some isolated showers have pushed across the I-25 corridor but so far have just amounted to generally a trace. Overnight low temps are forecast to drop into the 40s for the high valleys, and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

Today and tonight...Everything is still pointing to today as seeing the greatest impacts from this Pacific storm. The upper low moves onshore and across CA and into NV through the day today, then shifts north across northern NV tonight. At the same time, an upper shortwave rotates around the low across AZ today, sweeping across western CO this evening. While deep moist southwest flow will persist across the Four Corners through the day and night, this shortwave will provide the upper dynamic support late this afternoon and evening for increased rainfall amounts and rates. At the same time, another upper low breaks off from the main feature and strengthens over southern CA - more on that later. WPC has painted much of western CO, all the way to the Sangres, under a Slight area for excessive rainfall, and has a Moderate area that encompasses much of southwestern CO including the sw mts. Therefore, plan on periods of moderate rainfall through the first half of the day today along the Continental Divide, then becoming periods of heavier rainfall expected late this aftn and eve, especially across the sw mts.

The focus area continues to be the southwest mts, with total additional rainfall amounts there through the day today ranging from 2 to 3 inches, while the remainder of the Continental Divide and the Sangres could see an additional half inch to an inch of rain. The San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas River Valley will likely receive another .25 to .5 of an inch of moisture. Periods of heavier rainfall falling on already saturated ground will lead to excessive runoff and perhaps rock/mud slides. Given what has already fallen across the area Wed, these forecast additional amounts add up to totals being on the high end of original storm estimates.

Those living or traveling across the southwest mountains should stay weather aware today and tomorrow, and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. As for the eastern plains, continued warm conditions anticipated with some isolated shower activity spreading across the I-25 Corridor possible. Look for highs in the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and 70s to lower 80s for the plains.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Friday...As the main upper low continues pushing to the north through the day, another piece of energy separates and drops south across southern CA, becoming a secondary closed low over southern CA and AZ. As this is occurring, strong southwest support for rainfall across western CO drops off so rainfall rates decrease dramatically, and the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 00z Sat. Colder air pushes in, dropping snow levels through the night. The northern low continues east as an open trough, forcing a cold front south across eastern WY. Rain totals of an additional .40 of an inch for the eastern San Juans, and up to a tenth of an inch elsewhere, are forecast, then showers and isolated thunderstorms push along the southern border and up across the far southeast corner through the late afternoon and evening. This will be the last really warm day for the eastern plains as temps once again climb into the 70s to around 80F, while the high valleys climb into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday...A cold front pushes south into eastern CO Saturday morning, while the southern closed low moves up across AZ and reaches the Four Corners by Sat night. This will produce strong south to southwest flow, this time situated across the eastern half of the state. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, with excessive rainfall amounts possible for the eastern plains, and new accumulating snow for the mts as snow levels drop to around 9500 ft late that night. On Sunday the upper low starts to open up and track east into CO, continuing to bring rain and storm chances to the plains, while snow chances start to diminish. Plan on much cooler temps both days, with highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains.

Monday through Wednesday...Upper low weekend, opens and tracks east across CO as an open wave on Monday, with just some lingering isolated to low end scattered showers across the CWA. Temporary broad ridging aloft then develops across the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday looks to be another very cool day, then a gradual warming trend into midweek with temps climbing back up to seasonal normals. Moore

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

KALS: VFR, to at times possibly MVFR, conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A slow moving storm system will be in place, bringing numerous round of showers and storms to the TAF site through this TAF period, though with most thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Reductions in visibility and ceiling heights can be expected under heavier rain. Along with that, as minor mixing develops, winds are expected to uptick this afternoon and become marginally gusty around 20 knots outside of any thunderstorms. Outside of all of that, thick cloud coverage will be in place through this TAF period.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. While dry conditions are expected overall, rain showers, and possibly weak thunderstorms, will develop around the TAF sites this afternoon. Confidence in direct impacts to a TAF site is low, however, if one were to impact a site, lowered visibility and ceiling heights can be expected. Otherwise, thick cloud coverage will be in place through this TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the eastern San Juan Mountains and the Upper Rio Grande Valley through Friday afternoon.

Latest model data continues to support additional precipitation amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches by Friday afternoon over the eastern San Juan Mountains, bringing storm total amounts up to a range of 3.5 to 4.5 inches, which is on the high end of original storm QPF estimates. System continues to look warm, with snow limited to elevations at and above 12,000 feet through today, before snow levels start dropping Friday night. With already saturated soils from previous precipitation last week, river and stream flooding is possible, as well as the potential for rock/mudslides across the higher terrain of the ContDvd. Those living or traveling across the southwest mountains should stay weather aware through the rest of the week, and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for COZ067-068.