textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Less shower and thunderstorm coverage, mainly across the higher terrain through Monday.

- Very hot temperatures Sunday and Monday; Heat Advisories are in effect for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties.

- A return to active weather is expected by Tuesday and continue through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Currently...a couple of weak echoes remain on radar near the New Mexico border early this morning and will continue to track south through 3 AM as an upper wave exits the area. Temperatures are mild across the Plains, with mostly 60s, which will hold steady through sunrise.

Today and tonight...an upper level high will continue to shift southwest through the next 24 hours, with broad northerly flow aloft across Colorado. A weak embedded disturbance in the northerly flow may lead to a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, into the Raton Mesa this afternoon. Drier air, weak shear and lack of instability will help limit thunderstorm coverage today. As for the Aspen Acre burn scar, there is a very low risk of a storm cell moving overhead (around 10 percent chance) this afternoon. The risk of flash flooding on the burn scar is equally low. But, if a rogue cell does move over the scar, very localized brief heavy rainfall could be possible. Any storms that do develop will track south along the southern Sangre de Cristo Range, and exit into New Mexico by this evening. Temperatures will remain hot, with 80s and 90s across the lower elevations. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 60s across the Plains, and 50s for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

There has been changes in the guidance next week and the potential for heavier precipitation. The GFS, while still developing periods of rainfall over southern Colorado, has dried out, more in line with the ECMWF and various ensemble guidance.

Sunday and Monday...the upper high over the Desert Southwest is forecast to stretch across Colorado and into the Northern Plains, as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for drier air to settle across Colorado both days, with generally isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain under the upper ridge. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the main concerns with any cells that develop. Overall, coverage looks pretty minimal on Sunday, with slightly better coverage across the Mountains on Monday. The main concern for Sunday and Monday will be the heat. Heat Advisories are already out for both days for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Heat advisories may need to be added for the lower Arkansas Valley on Monday, when highs will be pushing 105F. For Sunday, widespread mid 90s to lower 100s are expected. Further warming is forecast for Monday, with upper 90s to lower 100s on the Plains. Be prepared for the heat by limiting outdoor activities, staying hydrated, and having someplace cool to go if needed.

Tuesday through Saturday...models have changed a bit in the past 24 hours. All still produce the longwave trough moving out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Plains, squeezing the upper high over Arizona and New Mexico. Tuesday and Wednesday still look like days with the highest shower and thunderstorm coverage. However, guidance is weaker with the cold front Tuesday morning with less upslope flow, and a delay in PWAT values returning to Colorado. There won't be a lack of embedded waves in the westerly flow across Colorado, with near daily waves Tuesday through Thursday. For now, maintained the NBM output given the changes in the models this evening. But, mid week will need to be watched, especially for burn scar flash flooding, and low end stronger thunderstorm potential.

By Friday and Saturday, the upper trough continues east into the Great Lakes, and the upper high to our south looks to begin building back northward. Monsoonal moisture will be in place, and continued shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast across the state.

Temperatures will cool down for Tuesday through Thursday, with 80s and lower 90s across the region. As the upper ridge rebuilds overhead Friday into Saturday, temperatures will once again warm back to near 100 on the Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, at and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period, with peak winds during the afternoon hours today. Otherwise, dry conditions with occasional mid to high level clouds is anticipated. With that all said, a shower impacting the KALS TAF site can't be ruled out this afternoon. If a shower were to impact the TAF site, brief rain and gusty outflow winds would be the main hazards.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086. Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>086.