textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering moisture under building upper ridge to support isolated, high based convection over and near the higher terrain through Sunday.

- Modest easterly flow aloft supports mainly hot and dry conditions across eastern CO through much of the upcoming work week, with a slow increase in available moisture across western CO bringing increasing chances of daily thunderstorms, mainly along and west of the ContDvd through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest northerly flow aloft across the region, with an upper high centered across the Four Corners region at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating drier and subsident air working into the region, with GOES Total Water Vapor imagery indicating PWATs running around 0.30 to 0.50 inches across western and into south central CO, and around 0.50 to near 1 inch across eastern CO at this time. GOES visible imagery has CU building across the higher terrain early this afternoon, with regional radars indicating a few showers across the higher terrain of the Central and Southwest mtns, along with a current thunderstorm across the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns as of 1230 pm.

For the rest of the afternoon through tonight, latest CAMs are indicating run to run differences on coverage and location of pop up storms, and are likely struggling with the amount of drying and subsidence under said building ridge. With the northerly flow aloft and east to southeast low level flow, have kept the isolated to scattered pops across the southeast mtns and Pikes Peak region through the late afternoon, with mainly isolated pops across the rest of the higher terrain and into the San Luis Valley. Showers and storms to be mainly high based, which supports gusty outflow winds as main weather concern. Otherwise, convection diminishes and ends with the loss of solar heating, leading to clearing skies overnight, with lows similar to previous nights, in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s across the higher terrain.

Latest models continue to indicate upper level ridging building into the Northern Rockies through the day tomorrow, with flow aloft becoming more east to northeast across the region. With continued warming and subsidence aloft, along with the more easterly flow, should see mainly dry conditions across eastern Colorado, with the potential for a few high based showers across the higher terrain through the afternoon. Temperatures look to be around to slightly warmer than today's readings, with highs mainly 90s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in the 80s to lower 90s across the high mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Latest long term and ensemble model data continue to build the upper high north and east into the Upper Midwest through the middle of the week, keeping generally warm and dry easterly flow across the region, especially across eastern Colorado. Latest models, however, do indicate a slow increase in available moisture circulating into southwest and western Colorado as well, leading to increasing chances of daily showers and possible storms through the week. Best coverage of said convection to be generally west of the ContDvd, with convection initially being high based, supporting an increased potential for dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds. Chances of wetting rains to increase along and west of the ContDvd into early next weekend, as model data supports monsoonal moisture across the Desert SW pushing east across the Great Basin and into western Colorado.

As for temperatures, at and above seasonal temperatures to continue across the region, though the modest easterly flow will likely keep temperatures from being "excessive" from July standards. In addition, the warm and mainly dry conditions will lead to increasing fire danger once again, however, modest flow aloft will likely support only spotty critical fire weather conditions across the district through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 519 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

KCOS and KPUB...

VFR next 24 hours. Winds will be diurnally driven. Breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon and early evening time periods.

KALS...

A rumble of thunder and some gusty outflow may be possible at the very beginning of this fcst period, otherwise anticipate VFR conditions and mainly easterly wind flow through the period. Breezy conditions will be possible at times.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.