textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Above seasonal temperatures and dry conditions expected through today.

- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Wednesday, with one or two strong thunderstorms possible.

- Pattern change Thursday - Monday bringing heightened precipitation chances and fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Today and Tonight: Tuesday brings another day of quiet weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. Ridging will continue to be in place today and tonight, and given the subsidence in place with this feature, and only minimal moisture, dry conditions are expected. With that said though, weak precipitation cores are expected to develop along the higher terrain today, however, given large T/Td spreads at the surface, very little, if any, rain will reach the ground. While no precipitation is anticipated to reach the surface, gusty outflow winds up to 30-40 mph may still develop under any more organized cores. Outside of outflow winds, gusty winds to 20-25 mph are expected across the eastern plains behind a weak cold front, with winds remaining around and less than 10 mph elsewhere. Winds lessen considerably overnight, with mostly calm winds anticipated areawide. Otherwise, temperatures remain above seasonal values today and tonight, with mostly clear skies early becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon and evening hours. Looking at temperatures, despite a weak cold front passage early in the day, highs will again warm into the 80s for the plains, the mid 70s to low 80s for the valleys, and the 50s and 60s for the mountains. Then for lows, the plains will cool into the mid 40s to low 50s, the valleys into the 40s, and the mountains into the 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Wednesday: For the midweek period, active weather starts to make a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge in place will start to push eastward and breakdown in response to an approaching wave. With flow, and therefore orographic forcing, starting to increase, and a slight uptick in moisture content ahead of the wave, showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom along the mountains during the afternoon hours. Given the uptick in flow, at least a few of these showers and thunderstorms are expected to push eastward across the valleys and I-25 corridor. With high cloud bases, and large DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, strong outflow winds to 50- 55 mph will be possible with any more organized thunderstorms. Otherwise, outflow winds 35-45 mph and lightning will be the main concerns with any shower and thunderstorm. Beyond all of that, breezy winds will remain in place outside of any thunderstorms, with mostly clear skies early becoming partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon. As for temperatures, another warm and above seasonal day is anticipated for the area.

Thursday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, some active weather will be in place for south central and southeastern Colorado. Overall, thinking hasn't changed, with the ridging flattening out, and embedded waves within the broader flow influencing the region. While confidence does remain high (70-80%) in the overall pattern change, confidence is low to medium (40-50%) on how individual waves will evolve. With that said though, this pattern is expected to bring periods of increased forcing and midlevel moisture, which willow for heightened precipitation chances. The greatest coverage of any precipitation is expected along the mountains, where forcing will be maximized. Confidence on how precipitation will develop for lower elevations is low (30%), as this will heavily depend on how the aforementioned waves evolve. Along with that, with the increased flow, and surface moisture likely remaining modest, fire weather conditions are expected to materialize each of these days with dry, downsloping winds. Temperatures during this period will also continue to remain high, with well above seasonal values through Saturday. As for Sunday and Monday, a cool down may be in store for the region, as a cold front is pushed southward during this timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds at KCOS and KPUB will retain a northerly component through tonight, shifting between NW and NE, turning southeasterly Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level clouds will move in and out but should remain well within VFR. While data shows a low chance for a few showers over the Palmer Divide near 00Z Tuesday afternoon, confidence is currently too low to include in this round of TAFS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.