textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- One last hot day today, cooling off for Tuesday and through the end of the work week after a cold front arrives.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage, especially Wednesday through Friday, with increasing flash flood risk on area burn scars.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Currently...upper level energy moving northeast across southern Colorado will continue to produce areas of rain showers through Monday morning. Most of the shower activity will remain confined to the higher terrain, but a few light showers will be possible across the Plains, mainly south of Highway 50. A couple claps of thunder may also be possible through the overnight hours. Temperatures remain warm with 60s and 70s for the lower elevations, with a few degrees of cooling expected through sunrise. Breezy conditions will continue through the overnight hours across the far Eastern Plains, with gusts near 25 mph through daybreak.

Today and tonight...an upper trough will be passing across Montana and into the Northern Plains through tonight, while high pressure remains anchored over the Southeast US. This will lead to west-southwest flow across Colorado with an embedded upper wave shifting across the state. As mentioned above, rain showers will likely be ongoing this morning with the initial energy overhead. A secondary embedded wave moves into the area this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms increasing across the higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide. The HRRR is most aggressive with activity spreading east off the Mountains and into the Plains by late afternoon. The NAMnest is less aggressive with more isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Trended with the NAMnest and other CAM solutions with the more isolated to scattered route this through this evening. Thunderstorms that do impact the region will be capable of lightning, gusty outflow winds near 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall. If a storm should happen to move across one of the fresh burn scars, flash flooding could occur.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue northeast across the Plains, coming to an end overnight. The will be across the Continental Divide, where activity will likely continue through much of the overnight period. On the Plains, a cold front will arrive late tonight with southwest flow turning northerly behind the cold front.

Temperatures today will continue to be hot, with mid 80s to mid 90s across the Plains and near 80s for the San Luis Valley. With the cold front arrival, temperatures will cool off into the 50s to near 60 across the Plains, and 40s for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Models remain in good agreement through the end of the work week, with differences by the weekend. For the most part, the upper pattern will favor high pressure to our southeast, and an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with persistent southwest flow across Colorado.

Tuesday...a cold front will have arrived by Tuesday morning across the Plains, with low level flow turning northeasterly through the morning, and southeasterly by the afternoon. This will help keep moisture pooled along the higher terrain, and weak instability is expected by the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop initially across the higher terrain, and spread east int o the Plains during the evening hours. PWAT values increase slightly on Tuesday, with stronger storms able to produce heavier rainfall, with an elevated flash flood risk on area burn scars. Lightning and outflow wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will also be possible. Overall, shower and thunderstorm coverage will be increasing on Tuesday across the Mountains, and weaken as they move out into the Plains due to a lack of instability. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front, with most areas in the 70s for highs!

Wednesday through Friday...flow turns more southerly aloft as the upper trough drop south along the West Coast. PWAT values continue to increase, with values in excess of an inch forecast across the Plains by Wednesday, and prevailing into Friday. Multiple upper waves embedded in the flow will lift across Colorado, with several rounds of heavier showers and thunderstorms expected. Flash flooding potential on area burn scars will increase, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will warm slightly, with mostly 70s and 80s across the Plains. By Friday, the upper trough lifts across the Northern Rockies with one last good day of shower and thunderstorm activity across the area.

Saturday through Monday...the upper trough continues into the Great Lakes through the weekend, with upper level ridging moving across Utah and into Colorado. Drier air will move into the region with the upper ridging with shower and thunderstorm activity decreasing, to just isolated to scattered activity over the Mountains by Sunday and Monday. It should be noted, that model differences arise by next weekend, with lower confidence in the overall pattern. Temperatures will remain nearly steady with 70s and 80s across the lower elevations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, though will carry a prob30 for tsra at all terminals for this afternoon into early evening, as a wave of scattered convection moves through the region. Main risk from storms will be gusty/erratic outflow winds gusting over 30 kts, along with brief lower visibility due to moderate rainfall. Activity ends this evening with skies slowly clearing after 06z. Cold front will move through KCOS and KPUB 08z-10z, with winds shifting to the north and gusting to 25 kts at both sites through the morning on Tue.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.