textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions return for portions of the area on Friday.

- Another round of strong winds near the mountains tonight with some light snow accumulations along the Continental Divide tonight into mid day Friday

- Dry and warmer over the weekend but unsettled pattern continues into next week with details to be determined with a potential late week storm

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Upper low approaching the northern U.S Rockies continues to tighten the pressure gradient across CO, deepening the lee side surface trough across eastern CO. This will kicks eastward towards the KS border this evening as a surface cyclone sets up in NE CO. Winds have already increased across the higher terrain and valleys where humidities are progged to remain above critical fire weather thresholds today. With time, winds will spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening across the plains where humidities will drop to less than 15 percent and fuels are critically dry. This will be a later show for Red Flag conditions across the plains today, and the current Red Flag goes through 8 PM which still looks on target.

Meanwhile, the tail end of energy pivoting around the upper low will send snow showers into the central mountains tonight. A few inches of wind driven snow will spread into the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges. Accumulations remain under 6 inches with the heaviest amounts north of Cottonwood Pass. No winter weather highlights appear necessary given limited coverage and amounts from this brief event. A cold front will push through the southeast plains late tonight into early Friday morning. This will be a dry cold front with gusty winds but falling humidities behind it. This raises concerns again for critical fire weather conditions. There will be a tricky juxtaposition between critical humidity values, which fall through the day, and gusty winds, which peak in the morning for portions of the southeast plains. Opted to issue Red Flag Warnings for the I-25 corridor and northern portions of the southeast plains along/north of the Arkansas River Valley counties, where both conditions come together the best. The San Luis Valley and Fremont county and southern I-25 corridor have the greatest chance of seeing critical conditions as gusty west winds spread down into the lower elevations through the afternoon.

Finally, there is a small window for spotty high winds to occur along the lee of the Sangres into the western edges of the Wet Mountain Valley and Huerfano county. HREF probabilities are around 30 percent or less for the very western edges of these lower elevation zones, where high wind criteria is 58 mph. Probabilities are less than 10% for the higher elevation (75 mph criteria) mountain zones. Given the lower probability and very limited coverage, will not issue any High Wind Highlights, but certainly some localized 55-65 mph gusts will be possible west of I-25 in Huerfano county and along the west side of the Wet Mountain valley in the 9 PM to 3 AM window. After 3 AM, strong forward shear aloft will keep the stronger winds above timberline.

Didn't stray far from model blends for highs and low temperatures. Did cool mountain valleys out west where clear skies tonight should allow for some efficient radiational cooling. -KT

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Western U.S. upper ridging translates eastward over the weekend with dry conditions, above normal temperatures and relatively light winds. A shortwave propagating through the flow to the south will bring some showers to southern portions of the area on Monday, but these will be light. A cold front pushes into the southeast plains but doesn't really bring much cooling or precipitation to the plains. Southern areas may see some gusty southerly winds so will need to watch Baca county closely for fire weather highlights on Monday.

Weather pattern remains active but details quite murky for the mid to latter part of next week. Another system will move into the western U.S. though speeds and amplitude differ. This is contributing to broad chances for precipitation each day in the National Model Blends due to timing differences. The overall result is pops will likely be overdone across portions of the plains on Tue and Wed. Thursday looks like the best chance as a cold front drops into the plains bringing a cool down, easterly upslope flow, and an increase in low level moisture. Another upper low out west fills and moves eastward across the central Rockies at some point late week, though timing differs between the runs. Model blends paint broad scattered pops across the region with continued above normal temperatures. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds have kicked in at KALS and will do the same over between 20 and 22z at KCOS and KPUB. Winds will remain elevated into the evening ahead of a dry cold front which will bring gusty north to northwest winds into KCOS and KPUB between 08-09Z. KALS will see a wind shift from the north as well towards 15z Fri. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ222-224-228>230. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>237.