textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon activity continues through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the primary concern over and near the mountains.

- Some thunderstorm activity remains possible over the eastern plains as well through Sunday.

- A bit drier late Saturday into Sunday, before cooler and possibly wetter conditions return next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Currently, SE Colorado sits in between two larger systems; a broad upper low moving down from the Pacific NW, and a region of high pressure over the southeast states. Aloft, flow in our region remains out of the southwest, with plenty of monsoon moisture continuing to funnel into our CWA. Lingering overnight showers will last into the morning, mainly over our western mountains. By mid- afternoon, some passing shortwave energy, combined with lee troughing over the plains, will initiate another round of thunderstorms over large portions of the area. Again, most activity will stay over/near the higher terrain, but a few thunderstorms will move east onto the plains as well by the end of the day. Looking at potential impacts, our main concern will be heavy rainfall, which could result in flash flooding over the burn scars, but also across areas that have received repeated or nonstop precipitation over the last 24 hours. Given the persistence of showers our west, Flood Watch over the San Juans remains in place until 12AM Friday. Showers will continue through most of the night, retreating further west but not fully ceasing over the San Juans as we head into Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures for today will be similar to yesterday, with 80s to low-90s over the plains and 70s for the high valleys.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The monsoon plume continues funneling into our area on Friday, though the best moisture tap will shift a bit further west. Most of the precipitation for Friday will be over the mountains, with a continued chance for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Meanwhile, some afternoon showers and storms will be possible over the plains as well, but things further east will be more isolated. The exception to this will be the Palmer Divide, which should see some more widespread rain thanks to a weak incoming cold front in the evening. Post-frontal upslope will make the plains a bit more active on Saturday, with some lingering low-level moisture and instability through the afternoon hours. Another front will also move through sometime Saturday evening into early Sunday, which will help keep convection going over the area.

Meanwhile, drier air will work its way into the mountains as flow aloft turns westerly on Sunday. The mountains will largely dry out, leaving some isolated-scattered activity over the plains in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the passing fronts will knock temperatures down a few degrees for the weekend. By Sunday highs will largely remain in the 70s over most of our CWA. Heading into next week, cooler temperatures look to stick around, with the monsoon moisture returning as an upper low moves onto the CA coast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds at the start of this TAF period will increase slightly this afternoon as modest mixing materializes, with gusts to 20-25 knots expected. These winds are then expected to lessen again heading into the evening and into tomorrow morning. Showers and storms will once again be a concern for either TAF site today, with the most likely timing for any impacts this afternoon into early evening. Brief periods of heavy rain, reduced visibility, gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be the main concerns will any thunderstorms. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist through this TAF period, with some lifting and thinning of clouds late tonight and into tomorrow morning.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds at the start of this TAF period will increase slightly this afternoon as modest mixing becomes established, with gusts to 20-25 knots expected. These winds are then expected to lessen again heading into the evening and into tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms will again be a concern today, especially this afternoon and evening, when confidence is greatest in precipitation development. Brief periods of heavy rain, reduced visibility, gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be the main concerns will any thunderstorms. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist through this TAF period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for COZ067-068.