textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Conditions continue over most of our area through tonight.

- Wetter conditions set in starting on Saturday, with a few strong to severe afternoon storms possible.

- Heading into next week, wetter and more active weather is expected, along with the chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding for burn scar areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Weak zonal flow aloft will accompany a weak disturbance passing over the Rockies today. Temperatures will be very warm once again, with 90s to low-100s over the plains and 80s over the high valleys. Moisture will be lacking across the region, with little to no chance for any precipitation for our CWA, aside from an isolated, high- based shower or two over Baca County. Meanwhile, with incredibly dry air in place over the area, RHs will drop into the single digits during the afternoon today. While winds will be more gusty over the higher terrain, downsloping, gap flow, and persistent critical conditions over the last several days will result in critical fire weather conditions for large portions of our area. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for zones along I-25 and westward.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Saturday...

Flow aloft will start to weaken a bit as upper-level ridging builds in. For Saturday, a weak disturbance will pass aloft, sending a dry cool front south over the plains. This will knock down highs a few degrees, with most areas in the 80s-90s, though the eastern plains will still remain in the upper-90s. Behind the front, cooler and more moist air will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms, though mainly over the Pikes Peak Region and portions of our eastern plains north of Highway 50. Moisture will spread over the rest of the plains Saturday Night along with precip chances. Best odds for any strong to severe storms will be along the frontal boundary as it moves through, coinciding with stronger heating during the afternoon. Mainly looking at the Palmer Divide and possibly Kiowa, Prowers, and Crowley Counties.

Sunday Onwards...

High pressure continues building in on Sunday. Post-frontal winds will encourage better upsloping throughout the day, leading to a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of our southeast mountains, along with the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa. Highs will be similar to Saturday, if a degree or two cooler in places.

Looking further into next week, conditions look somewhat active. The synoptic flow will bring some better moisture into the mountains, allowing for daily showers and thunderstorms across the region. Meanwhile, the plains will warm a few degrees by midweek. Between better RH and lighter winds, this pattern should limit critical fire weather concerns, though some spotty conditions will still be possible. On the contrary, the incoming moisture will increase flash flooding concerns, especially over and near areas of ongoing or recently extinguished wildfires, where the land is less able to absorb water.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 546 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with a period of sw winds gusting to 25 kts 19z-03z. At KCOS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Outflow from nrn CO overnight storms may turn winds to the northeast 13z-15z, with some gusts to 25 kts possible. Winds then turn back sly after 17z, with gusts 20-25 kts until 03z. Cold front arrives and turns winds to the north after 03z, with gusts 20-25 kts overnight. At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, though wildfire smoke/haze may lower vis to 6sm at times through the day. Outflow from nrn CO overnight storms may also turn winds to the northeast 14z-16z, though confidence here is lower than KCOS. Winds will then go s-sw 19z-22z, before switching back sely after 22z. Cold front arrives around 04z, with potential for gusty n-nw winds into Sat morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Red Flag Warning remains in place for most of today and into tonight, for zones along and west of I-25. Winds will be a bit lighter, but between downsloping and gap flow, critical conditions will be easily met, though conditions will be more spotty further east. Most widespread critical conditions will be over and near the San Luis Valley.

A weak front will move in on Saturday. This will increase available moisture while also bringing the chance for some precipitation, though most areas will likely remain dry aside from the Pikes Peak Region and portions of the eastern plains. Looking late this weekend into next week, a more active pattern is expected to set up. Moisture will move into the mountains, giving us daily chances for showers and thunderstorms that spread across the area into early next week. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, and the chances for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase. Particular areas of concern will be around ongoing or recent wildfires, where the ground is less able to absorb water. Generally this moisture, coupled with lighter winds, will largely keep critical fire weather conditions at bay most of next week.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>230.