textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on the plains this afternoon and early evening, with the strongest storms east of I-25.

- Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over Aspen Acres fire, especially from early to mid-afternoon.

- Still enough lingering moisture for isolated, high based convection over the eastern mountains on Saturday, with lightning and gusty outflow winds a fire concern.

- Hot and dry conditions build Sunday into next week, before moisture and thunderstorm chances potentially return to mainly areas along the Continental Divide by mid-late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Still some lingering weak convection over the far sern plains early this morning, with current trajectory taking most activity out of the state by sunrise. One more weak upper wave will pass over the area today, interacting with plentiful low level moisture to generate another round of midday convection over the mountains, which gradually shifts east onto the plains during the afternoon and evening. Suspect subtle increase in mid-level heights today plus some modest mid-level drying may be the reason most models (including several CAMS) are rather isolated with mountain convection initially, as storms wait to intensify until the reach the deeper instability east of I-25. Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the Aspen Acres fire/burn scar through the afternoon/evening, with perhaps the best chance for storms in the early/mid-afternoon window, then many CAMs quickly shift storms east (though a couple CAMs redevelop some activity over the Wets in the evening). Fire could catch a strong easterly outflow from plains storms late afternoon/early evening, which will need to be monitored. Severe risk will be greatest over the far sern plains, where best wind shear (0-6km bulk shear around 40 kts), instability (CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG) and low level moisture convergence coincide. Models suggest Baca/Prowers Counties at greatest risk for a severe storm, though activity anywhere on the plains will have at least some potential of becoming strong/severe. CAMs again hint at some sort QLCS over the far east by evening, with an increased wind threat as activity pushes into KS. Gradual clearing overnight as convection exits the region by midnight.

On Saturday, heights build as upper ridge amplifies over the Rockies, which should lead to a substantial decrease in convection across the region. Still a good deal of low level moisture left on the plains Sat afternoon, and with an easterly upslope wind, suspect we won't completely turn off the convection, with some storms possible over the eastern mountains/Pikes Peak region mid/late afternoon. Activity will be developing in an environment of generally increasing large scale subsidence, so despite rather moist/unstable low levels, expect storms to be short-lived and weak, with lightning and outflow winds the concerns. Max temps Sat will drift upward a few degf most areas under the building ridge.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Upper ridge remains in place over the Rockies from Sunday through much of next week, with generally dry and hot weather under the ridge through the period. Some hints toward the end of the forecast of 1) Mid-level moisture creeping back into at least wrn CO Wed/Thu, with a potential return of afternoon thunderstorms along the Continental Divide and 2) Weak upper tropospheric low drifting westward across the srn Rockies as center of upper high shifts northward, which could bring an increase in rainfall chances, though best forcing may stay just south. Will note that at least some 00z models/ensembles keep almost all moisture and thunderstorm chances south and west of Colorado through the end of the week, with subtle shifts in ridge position determining where/if any thunderstorms develop. Overall, winds should be light enough to keep most areas out of critical fire weather, but modest (15-25 kt) low/mid level e-se flow across the region Sun-Tue south of the upper high may get locations over the mountains and San Luis Valley at least close to critical for a few hours each afternoon. Heat will be on across the region, with widespread 80s/90s, and a few maxes pushing 100f on the plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with afternoon thunderstorms developing over the mountains and moving off into the adjacent valleys and plains through early evening. Erratic gusty outflow winds and light rainfall will be possible at KALS. While KCOS and KPUB may see stronger storms if they directly impact the terminals with moderate to heavy rainfall and even some small hail along with gusty outflow winds. Thunderstorms should move east of the terminals after 01-02z with clearing skies overnight. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.