textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire danger continues across our southern plains through early evening, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits.

- Heightened travel concerns due to 50-60 mph winds over the mountains and southern portions of the area, with blowing dust over the San Luis Valley and southern plains, and blowing snow over the mountains.

- Showers continue across the Pikes Peak region with snow levels dropping down to 6500 feet under the heavier snow showers through this evening. Any accumulations will be light, slushy and brief. - Frost and freezes expected for much of the southeast plains tonight, with the coldest readings across El Paso County

- Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas through mid week with another drying trend for next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Across the San Luis Valley, winds have steadily lessened, and are expected to continue this trend heading into the evening. Given this, blowing dust is no longer expected, and the Blowing Dust Advisory that was in place has been allowed to expire on time.

Across the far southern plains, the cold front that has been in place just south of Highway 50 through the day has finally surged southward and pushed into New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle. While gusty northerly winds are expected for another few hours, humidity values have greatly increased, with observations reading 45-55% humidity across the region. Given this, the Red Flag Warnings in place across Las Animas and Baca Counties have been cancelled early.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Potent upper trough ejecting across CO is bringing a wide range of weather conditions to southern CO, from low clouds, fog, and rain and snow showers with embedded thunder across the mountains and Pikes Peak region, to strong winds and high fire danger across southern sections of the area. The cold front has been stubborn through the morning but winds across southern Baca county have shifted from the south in the past hour and will get gustier through the afternoon as the upper trough ejects to the northeast and the surface low across southern sections of the area ejects eastward. Still looks like gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with humidity levels dropping below 10 percent. This will bring a period of critical to extreme fire weather conditions before the front drops southward to the southern border by 7 PM and humidity levels increase. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on target. Will need to watch closely for blowing dust which could reduce visibility to under a mile at times near plowed fields or areas with loose soil conditions.

Across the San Luis Valley, a brief hit of high winds occurred close to 11 AM which prompted the issuance of a High Wind Warning for southern and central portions of the valley. This occurred as the upper jet moves across. Window for strong winds has passed and High Wind Warnings were taken down around 2 PM. Winds will remain gusty to around 40 mph for a few more hours yet. Dust Storm Warnings were downgraded to Blowing Dust Advisories based on conditions in area webcams.

Otherwise, north of the cold front along the Arkansas River, temperatures have stayed cooler as clouds have been slow to erode. Best chance of showers for the Pikes Peak region will be this afternoon through early evening and snow levels could locally drop down to 6500 feet under the heavier convective snow bursts. Any accumulations should remain light, melting as it falls due to the warm ground surface. Some ice pellets or graupel could occur under the convective bursts as well but these should be brief. Then stratus will deepen, lower, and spread back southward behind the cold front through the evening. Upslope against the mountains could cause a narrow ribbon of fog and even drizzle along the lower eastern and southern slopes. Concerns then turn towards freezing temperatures and frost conditions across the plains as temperatures behind the front drop into the 30s. Fortunately, we have some clouds and wind to help keep temperatures up slightly, but up against the higher terrain and northern portions of the plains could see temperatures near or a little below freezing with the potential for some frost if some pockets of clearing occur towards morning. Greatest concern is northern El Paso county where a Freeze Warning has been issued. Have gone with frost advisories elsewhere as temperatures will get close to the freezing mark. This is a conservative Frost Advisory, erring on the side of caution given the late season timing of this event. Hopefully not all this area will receive a widespread frost, but protect tender plants if possible.

Tuesday will be a quieter day, starting out cloudy in the morning with clearing skies through late morning and afternoon. Easterly upslope flow on the plains will keep higher dew points pinned up against the mountains, with afternoon heating acting on it to generate some showers and thunderstorms over the mountains which will drift off into the adjacent plains. Instability is not all that great and think embedded thunder will be more isolated in coverage. Some overrunning Tuesday night may keep showers going across the southeast mountains and Pikes Peak region as the next upper trough moves into the Great Basin and weak waves eject to the northeast ahead of it. Overall, no fire weather concerns to note as temperatures will be cooler, humidity values higher, and winds lighter.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A cooler and active weather pattern continues through mid week with a series of upper troughs moving across CO. The first one moves across on Wednesday. A little better instability may be present for Wednesday over the mountains, but dew point return is still modest in some models as they increase into the 40s across the plains in the NAM but into the low 50s in the GFS. CIN across the plains should keep it stable with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move eastward across the plains, though another round of overrunning may spread some showers across the plains Wednesday night.

Thursday could be a more widespread severe weather day for the southeast mountains and plains as southerly return flow advects 50 dew points back into the plains. CAPE could increase to over 1000 J/kg with deep layer shears around 40 kts. We may also have some good forcing as a trough drops in from the northwest in the afternoon. Will have to watch this day closely for severe thunderstorm potential across the plains, but at least the higher humidity values should keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. Friday will be cooler and perhaps more stable behind the front with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to the mountains and along the surface front to the south. Warmer and drier weather returns next weekend with at least some isolated thunderstorms possible over and near the mountains both days. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period and tomorrow afternoon. Overnight tonight, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as clouds lower over both sites, especially KCOS. For winds, gusty winds will persist into the evening, though will start to quickly lessen in magnitude overnight, with winds at and less than 10 knots. Heading into tomorrow afternoon, a slight uptick in winds is anticipated to around 10-13 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, though light rain or drizzle can't be ruled out for KCOS tonight.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Looking at winds, gusty winds will persist into the evening, though will start to quickly lessen in magnitude overnight, with winds less than 10 knots. Winds will start to increase again tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, periods of mid to high level clouds are anticipated this evening and tomorrow afternoon, with dry conditions through this TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early evening across Las Animas and Baca counties. Gusts up to 50 mph and critically low humidity values will lead to critical to extreme fire weather conditions. The cold front will push back into the southern CO/NM/OK border areas towards 7 PM which will bring a sharp wind shift from the north with gusts up to 40 mph. But this will also bring an increase in humidity levels. Current Red Flag Warnings continue until 8 PM to account for the wind shift and any slight delay in humidity recovery. It is possible these may be able to be cancelled sooner if the frontal passage and humidity recovery is quicker. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ084. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ085>089-094>096.