textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions once again for the San Luis Valley, portions of the I-25 Corridor, and Fremont and Crowley counties today. Spotty high fire danger returns for Fremont County Tuesday.

- Chance for some light precipitation and thunder Tuesday afternoon and evening across the eastern mountains and plains.

- Increasing fire danger returns starting Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Currently...An upper low sits off the coast of the California Baja tonight, as westerly flow aloft begins to strengthen across the Great Basin and Rocky Mt region. Skies were mostly clear across the forecast area, then the increasing westerly flow has helped keep temps somewhat mild so far. By early Monday morning, min temps are expected to drop into the 30s for most locations, while the san Luis Valley should cool into the 20s to upper teens.

Today and Tonight...Models continue to show the Pacific upper low finally starting to push onshore today, nearing the southern AZ border by late tonight. However, the trend is placing the low center slightly more south, which may have ramifications for Tue. Regardless, forecast for today still looks to be on track and westerly flow aloft increases, which in turn increases downslope flow and helps boost temps today well into the 70s to around 80F for the plains, and 60s for the high valleys. This is around 5 degrees warmer than high temps realized on Sunday. Very dry conditions persist across the area, with minimum RH levels of 5 to 15 percent forecast for much of the plains and the San Luis Valley, hence the Red Flag Warning that remains in effect for portions of the area today from 10 AM through 7 PM. Please refrain from any outdoor activities that could spark a fire today. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be more mild with the increased winds, with 20s to around 30F for the high valleys, and 30s to around 40F for the plains.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Tuesday...Tuesday still looks like it will be a busy day, but maybe a little less now? This is due to models showing a slightly more southern track for the upper low as it opens up across New Mexico and ejects to the northeast towards the TX Panhandle. Light precip is still expected to begin across the southern portions of the forecast area late Tue morning, with up to 2 inches of new snow for the peaks of the southern and southwestern mts, then scattered showers spreading across the eastern plains through the afternoon and evening. However, QPF with this system is not all that impressive, and because of the more southern track, the chance for thunder looks to be more restricted to perhaps Baca County and areas east of the border. A surface cold front is still slated to drop south across the Palmer Divide during the evening, but given the expected warm start and a slightly delayed frontal passage, forecast high temps will still be really warm, not showing much change from the previous day. The only area with a high probability for some stronger gusty winds looks like the gap flow area across Fremont County and pushing into far western Pueblo County, so went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Fremont County, Fire Zone 222, for the afternoon.

Wednesday...A cooler, post-frontal day across southeast and south- central CO, with brisk northerly winds across much of the plains through at least the first half of the day. Any lingering showers should have moved on out of the area by daybreak, so plan on much more seasonal temps with 50s for most areas, and nearing 60F for the San Luis Valley.

Thursday through Sunday...The forecast area falls back into the thick of high fire danger concerns, as steady west to northwest flow aloft keeps dry conditions in place, with steadily warming temps. The model blend indicates temps climbing back up into the 70s to around 80F for the plains, and nearing 70F for the high valleys over the weekend, so more fire weather highlights are probable. Long range models do show an upper shortwave crossing the Rockies late Saturday, perhaps bringing some isolated shower activity to the higher terrain for Sunday. Moore

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 512 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy out of the west this afternoon with gusts at all three sites near 25 kts. An increase in high level clouds is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-227-228-231. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ222. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ229-230.