textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the plains (storms expected to last well into the early AM hours over far eastern plains).

- A few Strong to Severe Storms expected over the plains Thursday.

- Gradual warming trend through the period (No significant fire weather concerns expected though through the period).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Today into Tonight...

The main concern during the short term will be another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected over the southern mtns by early afternoon, moving onto the plains later this afternoon and over the far eastern plains this evening. Storms today are not expected to be all that strong, although small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially along the southern I-25 corridor. The one issue is the storms may last well into the early AM hours over the far eastern plains, especially north of US50.

As for temp, it will be cool once again this afternoon, with max temps only int the U50s to L70s across the plains. The coolest weather over the plains will be over N El Paso county, with the warmest temperatures over the southern I-25 corridor, The San Luis Valley should see highs in the U60s.

A couple of inches of snow will be possible at the higher elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Overall trend in the weather during this period will be gradually warming temperatures. 70s on THursday will be replaced by temps approaching 90 by mid week next week. We will also it becoming drier. Fortunately, surface winds are not expected to be strong and widespread critical RH values are not anticipated, so fire weather concerns will be low.

The main concern during this long term forecast period will be on Thursday as favorable shear will be in place and sufficient instability will be over the plains, and expect a good chance to see some rotating storms over the plains during this day as CAMS are showing some modest helicity swaths moving over the plains during the late afternoon and early evening time periods. Likewise I anticipate the possibility of large hail and damaging winds, with a low end tornado threat possible. SPC still has the fcst area under a marginal risk, but it does have a 2% percent tornado threat over all of the plains on the 06 UTC SWODY2.

For Fri and Sat, we will see some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, but expect the activity to be weaker and more isolated. Drier weather is expected the rest of the period, but we may see a ramp up in activity over the interior on Tuesday afternoon. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Other than some lingering MVFR ceilings at COS, relatively quiet across the TAF sites at this time. Winds do increase at ALS through the afternoon hours, with southwest winds gusting to around 30kt. While shower development does expand in coverage this afternoon into the evening hours, this development looks to stay away from ALS. So anticipate drier weather and VFR conditions to continue through the period for ALS.

Again, MVFR ceilings in place across COS at this time but should see ceilings improve early this afternoon with VFR conditions in place for both COS and PUB. Southeasterly winds will be in place for much of this afternoon, with periodic gusts to around 20 kt likely. Shower development does increase around both of the terminals this afternoon, with showers appearing to be most likely in the evening time frame. Still some potential for thunder this afternoon and have maintained it in the TAF. Did keep the prob30 going though as confidence on direct impacts to the terminals still looks low at this time. Conditions dry late this evening, but MVFR ceilings will likely return to both PUB and COS and given a wind trend back to an east southeast direction, should see these ceilings remain in place through the end of the period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.