textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash flood threat continues today as widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region.

- Hot temperatures continue this weekend, along with mountain rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today will be our wettest day of the week, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected throughout the region. A shortwave will pass through the region aloft, giving us plenty of forcing while monsoon moisture remains plentiful across SE Colorado. Showers and storms will pop up by early afternoon, first over the mountains before activity spreads east. By late afternoon, most areas over the plains will see at least some scattered activity, while more widespread precipitation will move across the higher terrain. Mid- level flow won't be particularly strong, but enough to keep storms moving. That being said, pockets of heavy rainfall, along with the potential for training storms, will make flash flooding possible over any susceptible areas. The Aspen Acres fire will be our highest risk area today, followed by the Willow fire and the Chalk cliffs, along with low-lying urban areas. The main focus of convective activity will shift eastward into early evening as the shortwave continues moving past, lingering over the plains into the early overnight hours before dissipating. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain hot today despite the expected rain, with 80s over the higher terrain and 90s to low-100s over the eastern plains.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Friday...

Precip coverage will lessen a bit on Friday, with most activity staying over the higher terrain. For the plains, a more stable airmass will be in place, allowing for only a few isolated showers along and west of I-25. Meanwhile, scattered to more widespread showers and storms will form by mid-afternoon and last into early Friday Night over the peaks of the mountains. Burn scar flash flooding will continue to be the primary concern.

This Weekend Onwards...

As the upper high moves overhead, flow weakens aloft. Forcing for storms will significantly weaken, though recycling monsoon moisture will be plentiful enough to keep afternoon showers and storms going over the mountains. Meanwhile, the plains will dry out again, with triple-digit temperatures returning. Current long-range guidance suggests a wetter and potentially cooler (or at least less hot) pattern as we move into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have move east of the terminals though some lingering showers will be possible in the vicinity of KALS overnight. Winds will gradually decrease overnight. but stay predominantly northerly for KCOS and KPUB and southerly at KALS. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains during the late morning and move into the adjacent valleys and plains during the afternoon and evening. Will carry Prob30 for -TSRA at all three terminals. Gusty outflow winds, brief moderate to heavy rainfall with generally VFR to MVFR cigs/vis will be possible under the stronger storms. These should decrease through 02-03z. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086.