textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag conditions will continue into tonight.

- A front moves in on Friday, bringing in cooler conditions for a few days. Expect snow over the mountains and the Pikes Peak Region.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for a few hours Friday along the New Mexico border.

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday morning and again Sunday morning which could damage or kill tender vegetation and freeze exposed pipes.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Still expecting active weather across SE Colorado over the next few days. Through the rest of today, widespread critical fire weather conditions will continue across large portions of the area, with gusty southwest winds and dry surface conditions. Red Flag is in effect through 11pm tonight.

Overnight, an upper-level trough will begin moving into our area, bringing some cooler air as a front approaches from the north. Lows may vary a bit depending on the timing of the front, but currently the forecast shows low-mid 40s over the southeast plains and high- 20s to mid-30s over the higher terrain, valleys, and the Palmer Divide.

Friday still looks to be a tricky forecast, with everything from temperatures to winds to humidity dependent on the timing and behavior of the incoming cold front. Latest model guidance has the front arriving at the Palmer Divide sometime between 4-6am, pushing south through the rest of the morning. This timeframe, a bit accelerated from models runs the last few days, gives us a few changes to Friday's forecast. Temperature spreads across different models remain inconsistent, but the general consensus has lead to a decrease in highs across our CWA. Given the earlier passage of the front, areas in the northern half of the CWA have been decreased a few degrees. Fire Weather will still be a concern, though it will be confined to the New Mexico border and adjacent areas, and only for a few hours in the afternoon. West winds ahead of the cold front will come off of the southern Sangres, with the downsloping dropping RH values just into the red. Combined with the gusty winds both ahead of and along the frontal passage, have constrained the, now upgraded, Red Flag Warning to the timeframe of highest confidence. That being said, if colder air manages to penetrate into the Trinidad area as the front pushes in, timing may have to be adjusted further.

Looking further north, though the initial surge of winds with the front will move in during the morning hours, a secondary surge of energy will pass over the area around or shortly after midday, coinciding with the passing of the main trough axis aloft. As this occurs, expect snow showers to move in from the north, mainly over the peaks of the central mountains, as well as the Pikes Peak Region. Given the late-season timeframe and warm ambient temperatures ahead of the front, some instability will be present, allowing for quick accumulations, limited visibility, and the potential for hazardous travel conditions. Amounts will generally be light, generally remaining at 1-3 inches over the top of the Palmer and Pikes Peak, with only trace amounts to around half an inch in the Colorado Springs vicinity. However, a more convective-type snow band or two may be possible, so locally higher amounts up towards 4 inches cannot be totally ruled out. Again, even with light amounts, snow is expected to fall quickly, which could pose travel concerns.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

At this time, no major changes to the long-term forecast. Sub- freezing temperatures are still expected Friday Night into Saturday Morning across the area, with a Freeze Watch still in place for the eastern plains. Though temperatures Saturday afternoon will be relatively cool, 50s-60s over most areas, breezy winds and dry conditions may result in a few hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions along the CO/KS border.

Another cold night is anticipated Saturday Night into Sunday, and although temperatures will creep up slightly from the previous night, more Freeze highlights may be needed. Main areas of concern will be along and north of the Arkansas River.

Looking at the end of this weekend and into next week, a ridge of high pressure looks to build in overhead, leading to warmer and drier conditions across the region. Flow aloft will be from the west- southwest, leading to the chance for some isolated mountain showers, while the plains remain dry and at risk for elevated fire weather conditions closer to the KS border. Long-range data still hints at another system approaching our area near the end of next week, though details will not become clear for a few more days at least.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to increase early in this TAF period as diurnal mixing becomes established. These winds are expected to lessen during the evening hours with light winds anticipated through a portion of the overnight timeframe. With that said, a cold front is expected to push southward in the early morning, with FROPA taking place between 10-12z Friday morning. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to fill in behind the front through the rest of the TAF period thereafter. Beyond that, dry conditions are anticipated, with mid to high level clouds persisting through tomorrow morning. Clouds are expected to start lowering quickly near the end of this TAF period, especially for KCOS.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.Winds are expected to increase early in this TAF period as diurnal mixing becomes established. These winds are expected to lessen during the evening hours with light winds anticipated through a portion of the overnight timeframe. With that said, winds will start to increase early tomorrow morning in response to a passing storm system, with gusty southwesterly winds expected by mid tomorrow morning. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated, with pockets of mid to high level clouds persisting through tomorrow morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222- 224>237. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM MDT Friday for COZ230-233- 237.