textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Plains remain warm and dry through Tuesday, with increasing rain potential over the mountains.

- Cooler and wetter weather arrives in the region by midweek, though forecast uncertainty picks up quickly after Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Warm across the region through the rest of today. Breezy southwest flow remains in place aloft, as low pressure systems deepen over the Pacific NW and off the west coast of Mexico. Highs this afternoon will be in the 80s to around 90 over the eastern plains, and in the 60s-70s over the high valleys. The southwest flow over our area will bring in more moisture from the ongoing tropical disturbances, with shower activity increasing across the Continental Divide throughout the day and into tonight. Snow levels are still too high for any accumulations in our areas, but looking at rain totals we are still expecting the San Juan Mountains to get the heaviest precip. Overnight lows will be warm, with 50s-60s out east and 40s over the valleys due to increasing cloud cover.

Sunday...

Conditions will remain largely consistent moving into Sunday. The eastern plains won't see much change, with high temps well above normal (mid-high 80s to around 90), and dry conditions. Precipitation will continue to increase over the Continental Divide, with some areas over the San Juan receiving a third of an inch of rain or more. This will occur as the trough over the west coast deepens, increasing moist southwest flow into the Rocky Mountains. Interestingly, some of the convective-allowing models do place a low- end chance for some embedded thunderstorms, some of which may become strong. Will be on the lookout for localized heavy rainfall and some small hail

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Much uncertainty still lingers in the model guidance in regards to how this incoming system will impact our region next week. Looking at the broad trends, two lows, one moving down from the Pacific NW, and one coming up from the west coast of Mexico, will interact and possible combine. This will give us a quickly deepening upper low, strong trough, and increasing southwest winds aloft, which will bring in plenty of moisture from ongoing and decaying hurricane activity in the Pacific.

Monday will be the last quote-unquote "transition day", meaning that the plains will remain warm and dry, while the higher terrain continues to see increasing rainfall amounts, mainly over the San Juans but over the rest of the Continental Divide as well.

With the latest guidance coming into slightly better agreement on at least the next few days, the upper low should move through Nevada and towards the Four Corners on Tuesday. This will bring in colder air across the region, with a front moving in over our eastern plains later in the day. Additionally, late Tuesday into early Wednesday will be the timeframe where precip over the mountains will change over from rain to snow, though the San Juans may transition a tad earlier, depending on what model solution you look at. As of now, snow accumulations across the peaks still remain too low to warrant any highlights, but a quick few inches and some travel hazards will still be possible.

Meanwhile, Tues-Weds, the eastern plains will finally cool off, with most areas dropping into the 60s behind the cold front. Chances for rain showers will also increase, spreading from north to south through the latter half of the week.

After roughly Wednesday morning, the model solutions begin to greatly diverge on the path of the system. Some deterministic guidance immediately ejects the low to our northeast, while others stall it out for several days, even retrograding it west beneath a broad blocking pattern into next weekend. These solutions are basically opposite of one another, so most of the ensemble means give a washed-out 'middle of the road' solution, which isn't a good representation of available model guidance. Overall, next week will be colder and much wetter after Tuesday, with the initial onset of cooler and more moist air decently well agreed upon in the data. That being said, the second half of next week, namely the duration and departure of this incoming system, remains inconsistent, and more details need to be sured up in future model runs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. The terminals will all see winds turning more southwesterly later today, with some gusts 20-25 knots possible, along with increasing mid-level clouds.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.