textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to blossom around the Baca County area Thursday, with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for portions of the area Thursday afternoon.

- Pattern change Sunday through Tuesday may bring increased precipitation chances for much of the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Today: For Thursday, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. Zonal flow will be in place over the region, and within that flow, an amorphous shortwave will be drifting eastward over the area throughout the day. This wave will bring a subtle increase in forcing. Along with that, a downtick in moisture is anticipated, with better moisture getting pushed to the eastern portions of the forecast area. Given all of that, dry conditions are expected for most throughout the day, though a highly isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out along the I-25 corridor as precipitation cores try to develop along the higher terrain. With that all said though, areas around Baca County are expected to experience high based showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Weak southwesterly upsloping along the Raton Mesa, coupled with the subtle ascent of the wave, should be enough to allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom and push eastward/northeastward over Baca County. Confidence is high (70%) in development given strong agreement from both deterministic and ensemble high-res guidance. With high cloud bases, large DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, and steep low level lapse rates, strong outflow winds are expected to be the primary hazard. Wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with any more organized thunderstorms. Otherwise, outflow winds to around 45 mph and lightning will be the primary hazards with any showers and thunderstorms. Outside of that, fire weather conditions are expected to materialize within the eastern mountains and parts of the upper Arkansas River Valley, as humidities lower with the drier air moving in, and gusty winds developing during the afternoon hours. Beyond all of that, breezy winds around 20 mph can be expected throughout the day, with partly cloudy skies also expected for the region. As for temperatures, another hot and above seasonal day is anticipated thanks to downsloping winds. The plains will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to low 80s, and the mountains into the 50s and 60s.

Tonight: Heading into Thursday night, quieter weather makes a return for south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned shortwave from Thursday will exit the area, with zonal flow remaining in place over the region. With minimal forcing, and diurnal instability waning, any showers and thunderstorms present are expected to dissipate during the evening hours, with dry conditions then prevailing overnight. Otherwise, as diurnal mixing lessens, winds will weaken to around and less than 10 mph, with skies becoming mostly clear. Temperatures overnight will continue the mild and above seasonal trend, with the plains cooling into the upper 40s to low 50s, the valleys into the mid 30s to mid 40s, and the mountains into the low 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Friday - Wednesday: For the long term timeframe, periods of active weather will continue for south central and southeastern Colorado, especially Sunday-Tuesday. Zonal flow will be in place Friday, Saturday, and likely Wednesday, with a more troughing pattern Sunday through Tuesday. Confidence remains high (70-80%) in this pattern, with strong support from ensemble model guidance. Overall this pattern will keep precipitation chances elevated along the mountains, where forcing will remain greatest. Precipitation chances may become more areawide Monday and Tuesday with the influence from the troughing, but confidence remains low (30%) on this, as there is still a bit of uncertainty on how far south the troughing digs. In addition, at least spotty critical fire weather can be expected through this period given an increase in flow, and therefore winds. As of now, the day of highest concern for widespread fire weather potential is Sunday ahead of the approaching trough. Beyond all of that, as alluded to, breezy conditions will be in place, with partly to mostly cloudy skies persisting. Looking at temperatures. Friday through Sunday continue the hot and above seasonal trend. Then for Monday through Wednesday, a cool down is anticipated as a cold front is pushed southward Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 515 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

As for the winds, confidence in the wind forecast at KCOS is LOW. High resolution guidance is all over the compass for low level winds at KCOS through the daylight hours. Will have to continue to closely monitor guidance for surface winds at KCOS through the day. Reason for this is blocking from Pikes Peak as prevailing 700 mb flow is due west.

Confidence is in the wind fcst at KALS and KPUB is higher.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222-225.