textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry tomorrow; Heat Advisory issued for El Paso and E Fremont county.

- Front comes in TUE Afternoon and Flash Flood threat ramps up for the multiple burn scars.

- Flash flood threat will likely remain with us from Tuesday onwards into the weekend over the burn scars.

- A bit cooler and wetter weather regionwide WED onward.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the rest of today, hot and mainly dry over the entire region. Cant rule out a isolated storm over the mtns (especially CONTDVD, but overall it will be dry.

Tomorrow...

Hotter weather over the region. Have issued a heat advisory for E Fremont and Lower El Paso county as heat advisory criteria has been meant over these regions. Lots of 90s over a good part of the region tomorrow with 100s over the Lower Ark rvr valley from about Canon City eastward to the KS border.

Another concern is critical fire weather conditions being meant across the greater western Pueblo county region. This unfortunately is the location of the Aspen Acres (AA) fire. However critical area is relatively small so no highlights will be issued from NWS PUB at this time, but have advised the IMET folks on the fire of the localized critical conditions expected tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Burn scar flash flood concerns will ramp up Tuesday. Deterministic guidance products are in pretty good agreement regarding pushing at front down the plains Tuesday afternoon. Surge of moist easterlies behind the front will hit the east slopes of the mtns during prime heating TUesday afternoon, and locally heavy rain will be possible along the mtns/plains interface. It will likely not take much rain to cause potentially significant flash flooding (especially if the rain is intense). The 24 burn scar and the Willow burn scar will also need to be watched.

WED-THU-FRI...

Broad modest NW flow (20-30 knts at 500 mb) will develop during the latter part of this time period, and with moist upslope flow developing, Modest deep layer shear will become favorable for a bit more organized convective development. Subtle short waves in this flow will help initiate storms over all of the region. The good new is we will likely see scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the region, the bad news is that any heavy rain over the burn scars will not be good.

Weekend...

Ridge builds directly over the region and flow becomes very weak. Mid level high will become "dirty" so slow moving scattered storms will be possible, mainly over the higher terrain. Temps over the region will likely once again heat up over the region, especially over the plains. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be diurnally driven. and may be a bit breezy at KCOS and KPUB this afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>085.