textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, with gusty outflow winds expected for thunderstorms.

- Precipitation remain heightened, mostly along the mountains, for the rest of the week.

- Precipitation chances increase more Sunday into Monday with more troughing pattern.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Today and Tonight: For Wednesday, active weather starts to return to south central and southeastern Colorado as a pattern change takes place. The ridging that has been in place will begin to breakdown in response to an approaching wave. As this materializes, orographic forcing will begin to increase as flow starts to surge, with a modest uptick in moisture also expected ahead of the approaching wave. With the increased forcing and moisture, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop during the early afternoon, initially along the higher terrain, and then push eastward across the valleys and I-25 corridor by mid to late afternoon. With high cloud bases, large DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, and steep low level lapse rates, one or two more organized thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong outflow winds up to 55 mph. Otherwise, gusty outflow winds to around 40 mph and lightning will be the primary concerns with any showers and thunderstorms. While typically showers and storms dissipate during the evening hours as instability wanes, modest instability will remain overnight. This instability, along with an additional surge of midlevel moisture from the west, will allow for thundershowers to linger into the overnight hours. This shower coverage will remain mostly along the higher terrain given orographics, but spillage across the valleys will remain possible. With that all said, any showers still present overnight are anticipated to dissipate by early Thursday morning, as any remaining instability finally lessens. Beyond all of that, mostly clear skies early will become partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon hours and persist into Thursday morning, with breezy winds for much of the region. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will be be gustiest during the afternoon hours, when diurnal mixing is greatest, with wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected areawide. Then looking at temperatures, another warm day and night is anticipate, given persistent downsloping winds. Highs will rise into the mid 80s to low 90s for the plains, into the upper 70s to 80s for the valleys, and into the 50s to low 70s for the mountains. As for lows, the plains will fall into the 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 40s to mid 50s, and the mountains into the 30s to 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday - Tuesday: For the long term period, active weather continues, particularly for the later part of this period. Flow will become more zonal Thursday - Saturday, with more troughiness Sunday - Tuesday. Overall, confidence remains high (70-80%) in this pattern shift, though with lower confidence in how the troughing will ultimately evolve during the later part of this timeframe. With that all said, this pattern will support heightened precipitation chances, particularly across the mountains where forcing will be greatest. Precipitation chances may become more widespread Sunday - Monday, though this will heavily depend on the troughing pattern. In addition, fire weather will be a concern through this period, given the uptick in flow over the region, and low moisture content, particularly at the surface. The area of greatest concern for fire weather potential will be across the eastern plains and southeastern mountains, where dry, downsloping winds will materialize at times. Otherwise, as just alluded to, winds will be breezy through this period, with partly to mostly cloudy skies persisting. Looking at temperatures, Thursday - Sunday will continue the warm and above seasonal trend across south central and southeastern Colorado. Then for Monday and Tuesday, a cool down is anticipated, as a cold front drops southward during Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will be light and diurnally driven during most of the forecast period, however during the late morning into the afternoon winds may get modestly gusty (xxx12g22kt) at times.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220-222-225.