textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday, forming over the mountains each day and moving over the plains.

- Flash flooding concerns persist for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Severe weather will be possible over the eastern plains this evening, then again Thursday and Friday.

- Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, as moisture gradually increases across western Colorado starting Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Updated to add blowing dust for the San Luis Valley for the next couple of hours. Decaying thunderstorms are pushing winds 50 to 60 mph across the valley, and areas of blowing dust, mainly across eastern portions of the valley, are seeing very low visibilities, less than one mile.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Flat upper high pressure area continues to stretch from southern CA across the Four Corners into the US southern Plains. Upper shortwaves sliding across the region will kick off convective activity through this evening, and again on Thursday.

Currently...A bit more convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, with all storms slowly pushing east and are struggling to maintain any strength, at least initially. As of 1 PM, temps have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Main plains locations will likely hit 100F later this afternoon.

Tonight...Main concerns this evening will be flash flood threat across the Aspen Acres burn scar, and developing severe weather threat for the far eastern plains. Given current activity on radar, feel that the Flash Flood Watch for the AA Fire is a good thing this evening through 8 PM. Given how fresh the burn is and how hydrophobic the ground likely is, any storm crossing the area will be a concern. Much of the activity should push east of the AA Fire by 8 PM. Second, SPC had painted a large portion of the eastern plains within a Slight, and even have an Enhanced touching Kiowa County. There is some favorable CAPE for the plains tonight, but does not necessarily sync up with the best forecast bulk shear. Regardless, as storms push east late this afternoon and eve they may be able to tap into the increased llvl moisture and some favorable shear, enough for potentially some damaging wind gusts and large hail. Best time window out east looks to be now until 8 PM, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Plan on mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Tomorrow...Similar set-up for Thursday, though a degree or two cooler, and hi-res models are showing much more favorable CAPE and bulk shear for the plains. Therefore, with the continuing threat of greater areal coverage of storms along the eastern slopes of the eastern mts, issued another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Fire for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Across the east, SPC Day 2 Outlook paints much of the plains within a Slight area, and it actually looks more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon through the eve. As for fire weather conditions, some spotty critical conditions may develop across the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, but at this time winds are a little questionable so will hold off on any highlights. Farther north for Fire Zone 220, affecting the Willow Fire, near critical fire weather conditions are forecast as well with gusty winds definitely there, and only question will be how low the RH gets in the aftn. Look for high temps in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thursday night and Friday...Plan on a mild night with moderate RH recovery, with lows in the 40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Upper high starts to amplify Friday, leading to drying across UT and western CO. Long range models do show another upper disturbance dropping south across the central US plains and eastern CO, keeping storm chances in play for the CO plains Fri afternoon and evening, some of which will likely be strong to severe. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Spotty critical fire weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley, as well as across Lake and Chaffee counties.

Saturday through Wednesday...Upper ridge migrates to the north and northeast over the weekend and into the upcoming work week, providing for lingering hot conditions for the entire area into the middle of the upcoming work week. Though the eastern plains will likely remain dry, the track of the upper high does allow for some monsoon moisture to start creeping northward into western CO starting Monday, with some isolated convection spilling over along the Continental Divide. Moore

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

KALS...VFR conditions overnight into early Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the San Luis Valley by mid afternoon and remain possible at the terminal through early evening. Gusty outflow winds near 40 kts may be possible with passing storms.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions into early Thursday afternoon at both terminals. Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain and move across the terminals by late afternoon into the early evening. Gusty outflow winds to near 40 kts are possible with passing cells. Thunderstorms look to move east during the evening, with VFR conditions after 03z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ079-080-086.