textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions through this evening across portions of southern CO.

- Dry and warmer over the weekend but becoming unsettled next with increasing chances of precipitation, especially late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 117 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Still waiting for the southern extent of the upper trough axis to swing through southern CO. Band of cloudiness extending from the northern San Luis Valley, through Fremont and southern El Paso and Pueblo counties ahead of this impulse has slowed heating and delayed winds. Outside of this region dew points have been falling and/or temperatures warming with RHs starting to meet critical thresholds. We should see expending Red Flag Criteria across most of southern CO as this trough axis swings through the region by 00z as the upper low heads into SD. Will hang on to current Red Flag Warning through 8 PM.

Snow showers will decrease across the central mountains with clearing skies overnight. This will set the stage for a chilly night given the dry airmass, light winds, and lack of insulating cloud cover. Stuck close to model blends and guidance values out west.

Saturday will be a calmer and drier day under weakening northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be a tad warmer (near to above climo) with lighter winds. Red Flag conditions are not anticipated. -KT

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 117 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Upper ridge shifts in from the west on Sunday with most areas staying dry. Some meager moisture advects into far southern areas with some very isolated showers possible, but models have been trending drier. Temperatures should continue the warm up with light winds.

Upper level flow flattens out for Monday with an embedded shortwave moving across the region. This will bring some showers to mainly mountain areas though a few may drift off into the adjacent plains in the evening. A cool front will drop into the southeast plains, though airmass behind it is not all that cool with highs still in the 70s. Upslope flow to the north of the front may bring some modest moisture return for a few light showers to work with as the shortwave translates in aloft. These will likely be high based and not much for producing moisture east of the mountains.

The pattern remains active through next week under generally westerly flow aloft with embedded disturbances and eventually a longwave trough or closed low which pushes through the western U.S towards the end of the week. Timing, track and intensity is still uncertain, but general trend is for increasing moisture and precipitation chances through late week. The warmest and windiest day is targeting Wednesday when we could get close to Red Flag conditions across the valleys and I-25 corridor. A cold front drops through the plains on Thursday bringing another uptick in showers though temperatures remain above normal. All eyes are on the late week into next weekend system out west, though details are all over the map. Southerly flow should help pick up some moisture with daily shower and thunderstorm chances across southern CO. However confidence in details this far out remains low. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Patchy VFR clouds will continue this afternoon otherwise expect clearing into the evening and overnight hours. Winds will shift out of the northwest at both KCOS and KPUB during the afternoon with gusts to 30 kts possible. KALS will see north to northeast winds gusting to 25 kts. Winds will remain elevated into the evening hours before diminishing overnight. Winds will be light with diurnally driven wind patterns for Saturday. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224- 226>237.