textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag conditions again today Teller/Fremont Counties and along much of the I-25 corridor.

- Slightly less windy Saturday/Sunday with above normal temperatures continuing.

- A storm system will impact the area Tue/Wed next week with increased chances for mountain snow and lower elevation rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 133 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Upper jet remains over Colorado today, with brisk northwest flow for another day, especially over the higher terrain. Lee surface trough remains along I-25 into this evening, while weak low pressure spins up over nern NM by late afternoon. This pressure configuration will tend to keep strongest/gustiest winds west of I-25 for much of the day, as weak easterly gradient turns winds e-se around Pueblo and Colorado Springs by afternoon. Relative humidity will remain very low, under 10 percent along I-25, so kept the current Red Flag Warning intact for now, though windiest areas will likely be Teller/Fremont Counties. HRRR does suggest a couple pulses of stronger westerly winds may reach areas such as Fort Carson/Pueblo West/Walsenburg during the day, so can't rule out some periodic Red Flag conditions at least close to I-25 into the late afternoon. This evening, winds slacken quickly with fire weather conditions improving after sunset. Overnight, generally quiet/cool conditions expected, though a few lee slope locations could catch a gusty (g25- 35 mph) downslope west wind toward sunrise, which will likely keep mins in these areas above freezing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 133 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Mid level flow relaxes slightly on Sat as upper jet weakens and drifts north, and while we'll have some breezy spots (gusts 15-25 mph) in the afternoon, humidity will be higher and overall fire danger will be less than the past several days, with no fire weather highlights expected at this point. Max temps Sat look little changed from Friday, with highs again well above average.

Upper jet sags back southward toward Colorado on Sunday (though good deal of 12z ensembles and 12z/00z deterministic runs have trended back northward toward the WY border), with frontal boundary backing westward across the plains during the day. With jet trending farther north, precip chances Sun/Sun night look fairly meager, and just a few showers are forecast over the central mountains and Pikes Peak region as better forcing stays north. Current max temp guidance for Sunday leans a bit cooler than Sat, though won't be too surprised if we end up with a much tighter temp gradient on the plains than currently forecast, as low level winds stay easterly for much of the day east of I-25.

Monday-Wednesday next week, western U.S. trough/low ejects across Colorado during the period, with many models/ensembles converging toward a late Tues/early Wed timing of the upper trough/low passage. Still some track/strength details to work on, though rough model consensus is a mid-level circulation path through Colorado, which should be favorable for a period of precip across most of the region. The main forecast messages are 1) Window for heavier precip/highest pops seems to be in the Tue afternoon through Wed morning period, though a few showers will be possible either side 2) System will be very warm, keeping snow levels high (7k-8k feet) initially before falling somewhat as low departs. This would keep bulk of precip rain on the plains and along I-25, though some snow could be possible as the system departs and temps cool Wed morning. Do have a mention of thunderstorms late Tue as weak instability develops, so a few convectively enhanced areas of heavier precip are possible 3) Most solutions track the upper low quickly into the central plains, which will tend to keep overall QPF on the light side, with WPC and NBM consensus of less than a half inch of total QPF, heaviest amounts over the mountains (will note 27/00z deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian have trended wetter, and all have enhanced precip amounts over an inch over the Wets/Pikes Peak region, though this may be convective contamination, especially with the GFS). Temps will be relatively cool Mon-Wed with clouds and precip, though most locations will still see readings above seasonal averages.

Warmer and drier Thu, but new, potentially colder trough lurking out west could bring precip back to southern Colorado as early as Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 957 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain generally light through the overnight hours. Winds are trending weaker with newer model runs for Friday, with diurnal southeasterlies and easterlies looking more likely for KCOS and KPUB. Few to scattered mid and upper-level clouds are likely off and on through the forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ221-222-227>230.