textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased chances of mountain thunderstorms through Friday.

- Pockets of heavy rainfall could cause flash flood concerns over recent burn scar areas.

- Slightly drier this weekend, with moisture returning to all of SE Colorado next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the mountains through the rest of the day and into early tonight. Main impact concern will be flash flooding over the Willow burn scar, due to pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.

For Thursday, we will continue to see an uptick in available moisture, leading to more widespread coverage for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. Not too dissimilar from today, showers will fire over the Continental Divide by around midday, increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. Easterly flow across the region will keep storms tied to the mountains, meaning that the plains will once again remain dry. With PWATs steadily increasing over the region, chances for heavy rainfall will continue to increase as well, meaning that any storm over a burn scar area will be capable of producing flash flooding conditions. Main area of concern will again be the Willow fire. Temperatures will be similar again as well, with 80s to mid-90s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Uptick in thunderstorm activity will continue on Friday, with PWATs creeping towards the 150% of normal range. Best chances for heavy rain will be over the peak of the Continental Divide, with the main risk area being the Willow burn scar. Storms look to get a little strong as well, with pockets of 800-1000 /kg of CAPE during the afternoon, along with 20-25 knots of bulk shear, which further increases chances for flash flooding. Given the east to northeast steering flow, still expecting the plains to remain dry.

Over the weekend, the upper high builds overhead more, pushing the moisture plume a bit further west. As a result, the southeast mountains will remain mostly dry through the weekend, with only scattered POPs over the Continental Divide. Temperatures will also warm a bit, reaching high-90s to low-100s over the far eastern plains by Sunday afternoon.

Moving into next week, recycles monsoon moisture is expected to move around the high as it shifts. With PWATs increasing across the state, and a cold front moving onto the plains on Monday, POPs will spread over our entire CWA. Chances for wetting rains over the eastern plains will increase Monday evening towards the middle of next week, with showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Meanwhile, temperatures will drop a few degrees as well, settling right around seasonal averages. Flash flooding over our burn scars will continue to be our main concern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Enhanced southeasterly surface flow will continue through this period, with gusty winds during the afternoon and evening time periods. There will be a chance of some thunder/gusty outflow winds tomorrow afternoon at KALS.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.