textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity today, mainly along the southern border and across the Palmer Divide.

- Better upper level support to tap available moisture starting Monday.

- Continued hot now through Tuesday, then slightly cooler midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper low pressure system remains over the Pacific NW, an upper ridge of high pressure sits over the central US, and Hurricane Marie has progressed a bit more west across the Pacific. Broad southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners and CO persists.

Currently...Lingering convection is trying to clear the southeast corner of the state, while a good amount of mid and high level cloudiness is expected to stream across the forecast area overnight. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Today and tonight...Models remain on track, showing the upper low center over the Pacific NW pinwheeling east-northeast into Idaho. The associated shortwave taps into available moisture, spawning convection across the Great Basin today, but little by way of widespread beneficial moisture for southeast and south central CO. The ridge to the east moves very little today, so best locations for some isolated afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity looks to be along the southern border, and over the Palmer Divide. SPC has a Marginal risk for severe weather dipping south into Teller and El Paso counties today, but confidence is very low and just do not think that will be realized. Main threats from any convection today will be gusty outflow winds 40-45 mph. During the overnight hours, activity across the east will diminish, but some isolated showers and storms then start to creep into western CO and the Continental Divide, setting up for the following day.

As for temps, southwest flow aloft continues so expect another hot day with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains. Overnight minimum temps will bottom out early Monday morning in the 50s for the high valleys and 60s for the plains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Monday and Tuesday...Upper trough over the Pacific NW opens up, and the upper low center pushing across ID on Sunday continues pushing east-northeast across the northern Rockies. The associated upper disturbance will help spark increased convection across the forecast area Monday afternoon and evening, while at the same time pushing a weak cold front south. This weak front will reach southern Colorado some time Tuesday morning, while at the same time another stronger piece of the upper system moves across Montana. This stronger lobe of energy is what will affect the region on Wednesday. On both days, the upper ridge to the east begins to flatten and creep west. With all that said, plan on enhanced convection chances both days, with best probabilities tied to the higher terrain. Monday will be a hot day, most likely the hottest day of the extended period, with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains. Tuesday will be similar, though perhaps 3 to 4 degrees cooler across the plains due to the weak cold front.

Wednesday and Thursday...A stronger cold front drops south across CO on Wednesday, while flat high pressure builds to the west and sets up over southern CA and the Desert SW. High temps both days across the plains will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than previous days, bringing them much closer to seasonal normals. However, the high valleys are forecast to remain very warm and above normal. Increased precip chances, both in coverage and in QPF amounts, are anticipated late Tue night through Wed and into Thu, and this time frame will have the greatest potential for flash flooding on area burn scars.

Friday and Saturday...Long range models want to keep flat high pressure in place over the Desert SW, allowing brisk westerly flow aloft on Fri transition to NW flow aloft on Sat as another upper disturbance drops down across the Rocky Mt region and brushes across CO to the northeast. The NBM increases max temps both days back to above normal, while indicating some questionable precip chances across the higher terrain. Stay tuned as these out periods will likely go through multiple changes. Moore

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 455 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. KALS will see southerly winds increase this afternoon to near 10 kts. Removed the PROB30 for -TSRA at KCOS this afternoon. Model guidance continues to keep the terminal dry, with all thunderstorm activity well north over the Palmer Divide. If a storm does develop south, the 22z-02z time frame may see gusty winds. Easterly winds are forecast near 10 to 12 kts at KPUB this afternoon. Mid and high clouds will impact all three terminals through much of the forecast period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.