textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and wetter weather continues tonight and Wednesday with a few inches of snow across the mountains, particularly north of highway 50.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday across most of the southeast plains.

- Gradual warming and drying over the weekend but active weather returns next week with the approach of another western U.S. upper low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Cooler temperatures and higher humidity have brought a much needed reprieve to the windy and dry conditions of late across the southeast plains today. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds have returned to the mountains and San Luis Valley where winds have been gusting up to 45 mph at times.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and adjacent plains late this afternoon and evening. Best convective potential will be across the mountains where better surface heating has been occuring. Across the plains, a strong cap will remain in place though as the Great Basin upper trough translates eastward overnight, broad overrunning will combine with shallow easterly upslope flow to produce another round of stratiform rain and snow across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Heavier precipitation amounts will favor locations along and north of highway 50. Snow levels will be higher tonight than last night but some light snow accumulations will be possible above roughly 8500 feet. Otherwise, another cloudy night with increasing dew points in southeast surface flow should keep low temperatures above freezing for the southeast plains.

Wednesday will start out cloudy and showery for the northern mountains and adjacent plains. This will be followed by partial clearing then another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across the mountains, and spreading into the southeast plains Wednesday evening as forcing from the upper trough glances by to the north. Best thunderstorm chances will be across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains where CAPE of up to 750 J/kg will be in place. The southeast plains look capped initially but could see some broad overrunning precipitation Wednesday night as a southerly low level jet sets up to the east. Showers should pull eastward into KS towards morning. Overall, temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 60s to around 70 across the lower elevations and a mix of 40s and 50s for the mountains, with cooler readings above timberline.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Thunderstorm chances increase for Thursday with a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains in the afternoon and evening. Next upper trough will be dropping southward through the northern U.S. Rockies and swinging by to the north Thursday night. This forcing, along with better surface heating, continued low level moisture advection in southerly return flow, and decent deep layers shears, should trigger a round of scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, across the southeast plains. Models push a dry line northeastward off the Raton Mesa with easterly low level flow putting a ribbon of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE along the northern I-25 corridor counties of Pueblo and El Paso counties, eastward across portions of the southeast plains. Hodographs show some decent curvature, especially where surface winds are more easterly, and with deep layer shears around 40 kts, large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado will be possible. There is still a bit of a cap farther east near KLAA in the afternoon, though a low level jet and cooling aloft with the incoming upper trough steepen lapse rates aloft Thursday night suggesting convective maintenance into the overnight across the eastern CO/western KS. Main severe risk would be in the afternoon and evening, especially for the I-25 corridor, but there is a fair chance of rain (50-70%) across much of the southeast plains. Western areas, by contrast, will remain dry and breezy. Temperatures warm around 5 degrees over those of Thursday.

Cold front drops southward into the plains on Friday behind the departing upper wave. Some minor cooling and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the southeast mountains and plains. Best CAPE will likely be to the south of CO or near our southern border along the frontal boundary.

It remains an active pattern into next week with some minor ridging into Sunday leading to a gradual warming trend through the weekend. Enough moisture will be present for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The driest day looks to be Sunday. Troughing returns out west for Monday and Tuesday with southerly flow aloft across CO bringing return moisture and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period as thick low level clouds persist and keep ceiling heights low. In addition, ongoing rain is expected to persist into the portions of the overnight hours, which will bring reduced visibilities as well. This rain is expected to end by early morning, with dry conditions lasting into the afternoon hours. With that said, showers and thunderstorms are again anticipated to push over the higher terrain and toward the TAF sites. These showers and storms may bring brief periods of reduced visibilities and sudden increase in winds. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. While dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, rain showers will be around with the San Luis Valley tonight, and these may impact the TAF site, bringing slightly reduced visibilities if so. Winds will remain light, at and less than 10 knots, through tomorrow morning, with winds quickly increasing in magnitude tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, low to mid level clouds will steadily rise in heights through tomorrow.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.