textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with showers; some thunder mtns/plains interface and along the southern border.

- Warmer and windy Saturday, scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon all areas (Surface RH relatively high, but POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR DRY LIGHTNING??)

- Sunday and Monday, Classic Critical Fire Weather days due to strong 20 foot southwest winds and single digit RH values.

-Tuesday, mtn snows, cooler weather moving in but may see some critical fire weather conditions in the morning far southeast plains.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A cold front will backdoor into the plains later tonight, with cooler weather moving in along with low clouds across the plains. Some showers will be possible later tonight and tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase, especially along the mtns/plains interface. By late tomorrow afternoon the shower will move east and move across the plains. Additional showers will be possible over the Continental Divide.

Per SPC guidance, the best chance of stronger storms will be across the far southeast plains.

For tomorrow night, showers will continue across all of the region, with high elevation snow likely.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Saturday...

Much warmer and windy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overall the column will be relatively moist and surface RH values will remain relatively high during the afternoon time period. However this day could be problematic from a fire weather standpoint as thunderstorms will have the potential to produce grass fires across the plains, and with the windy remaining strong through the day, we could see any potential fires spreading across the plains. We did have a few fire starts earlier this evening over the far eastern plains due to lightning strikes. With this said, if we are fortunate to get some decent rain over the plains tomorrow (Friday), this would alleviate the fire threat. This situation will have to be watched carefully.

Some of the storms will be strong as the combo of synoptic flow and outflow winds will allow for strong gusts. Per latest SPC outlooks, the greatest threat will once again be over the eastern plains.

Sunday and Monday...

Classic dangerous fire weather setup. Deep strong southwest flow, very low surface humidity values and drought conditions will allow for rapid fire spread across the plains if a fire should start. The San Luis Valley (and possibly the southern mtns) may also need fire weather highlights these two days.

Tuesday...

Deep trough will move across the region. It appears it will be a bit slower and does not appear to be as longitudinally deep. This may allow for critical fire weather conditions to continue over the plains, especially Tuesday morning. it does appear the mountains, especially along he divide should do well with this system as there appears to be plenty of moisture with this system.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Mainly dry this period. Fire weather concerns will increase as RH values forecast to be very low but gradient aloft is relatively weak. so winds will be marginal at best. Will continue to monitor as we get closer to the event.

Late next week another deep trough moves over the area and fire weather concerns will likely once again increase significantly.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Light showers and virga are still present north of KCOS, which may continue to lead to gusty and erratic outflow winds for the next couple of hours. A weak front is pushing across our plains east of both KCOS and KPUB, though winds look to remain fairly weak at both stations with its passing. The main noticeable change behind the front will be the possibility for low and mid-level clouds later tonight and throughout Friday as moist easterly upslope sets up. At this time, ceilings are expected to remain VFR, though MVFR decks may end up being possible, especially at KPUB, generally after 14Z. There is also a slight chance (30 percent) for showers or vicinity showers at KPUB late in the period, which may lead to briefly degraded ceilings and vis, along with gusty and erratic winds.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.