textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms continue into this evening, with gusty outflow and small hail.

- Dry conditions return Saturday through Monday, with increased fire danger. No fire weather highlights are needed at this time, but caution is advised.

- Afternoon storms return near the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

A closed upper low is currently moving with a broad trough into the Great Basin region, bringing us an interesting forecast for the rest of today.

Current analysis shows close to 2000 J/kg of CAPE at the surface, due in large to the early dissipating of the clouds from this morning. Low-level moisture combined with some good daytime heating should allow for ongoing storms to intensify later today, though shear will still be a limiting factor. Stronger to severe storms are still more likely further east, where instability increases along with the dewpoints.

As of now, high-res guidance shows isolated to scattered storms firing along and west of I-25 through mid-afternoon, quickly moving off to the northeast through the rest of the day. Best chance for strong to severe storms will be across portions of the eastern plains, with chances higher the further east you go. There could also be some locally higher CAPE values right along the east slopes of the Ramparts and portions of eastern Fremont County, thanks to lingering low level moisture from the upslope we've been seeing the last 2 days or so. Storms are expected to intensify through the afternoon, reaching their peaks during the mid-afternoon. Looking at forecast soundings, mainly just looking at a wind threat, given the dewpoint depressions near the surface, though stronger storms will be able to produce some low-end severe hail as well.

Storms will quickly move off this evening, with the entire CWA drying out overnight. Lows will be mild, in the 40s-50s over the plains and high 30s to 40s for the mountain valleys.

The low will start moving off to the northeast this weekend, with much drier and warmer conditions setting in across the area. Highs will climb into mid-high 80s over the eastern plains, while the higher terrain remains largely the same 60s-70s as today. No precip is currently expected, outside of an isolated afternoon shower or two over the Continental Divide.

With the dry air spreading across our CWA, will be looking at some spotty critical fire weather conditions, mainly over the San Luis Valley but also over portions of our far eastern plains. That being said, fuels in the valley are still non-critical, and winds over the eastern plains appear to stay below the 25 mph gust threshold across most model guidance. As such, no need for any fire highlights at this time, but that may need to be reassessed later if winds increase.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Drier conditions will remain in place Sunday-Monday as the upper low shifts off to our northeast, bringing much drier air in behind it. Temperatures will warm, with high-80s to near 90 over the plains and high-70s over the high valleys. Precip chances will be slim to none across SE Colorado, despite a weak front moving through the area late on Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon on Sunday and Monday over the San Luis Valley, so will have to see if fuels turn critical by then.

Looking further into next week, the flow breaks down a bit, with the first of several shortwaves moving into our area around Tuesday. At the surface, southerly flow over the plains will bring in warm, moist air, as the synoptic energy will allow for a return of shower and thunderstorm chances.

By Thursday, another ridge appears to build in over the region, drying us out again towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 527 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Convection wanes through the early evening, with storms not expected at terminals. South to southeast winds at the terminals diminish through the evening, with light diurnal winds expected overnight. Breezy south to southwest winds 15-20kts develop at the terminals Saturday afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.