textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High Fire Danger/Red Flag Warnings continue today and Monday, potentially persisting into Tuesday on the plains

- Period of rain and high mountain snow showers expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, light to moderate snow accumulations possible along the Continental Divide - High fire danger returns Thursday and Friday, with a potential increase in precipitation chances from late Friday into next weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Upper trough moves onshore along the West Coast today, then into the Great Basin on Monday, Pattern will bring strengthening mid/upper level southwest flow to the region, with main upper jet nosing into wrn CO this evening, then migrating eastward across the state on Mon. Dry air and deep mixing, along with a tightening surface gradient, should generate gusts in the 25 to 35 kt range at lower elevations today, with mountain gusts over 40 kts possible. Similar winds on Mon as upper level jet moves across, with perhaps some slightly stronger gusts over the mountains. Red Flag Warning for today looks good and made no changes, while for Monday, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a warning, but no change to the area. Considered adding Sangres/Wets to the Mon highlight, but increasing mid-level moisture may keep humidity above threshold, so held off on a highlight here for now. Max temps both days will be well above seasonal averages, with 80s on the plains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Potential high fire danger again on the plains Tues as jet remains overhead until trough moves across Tue evening. Main question for fire highlights Tue will be the position of the surface front, which at least a few 00z models have sped up, with fropa during the afternoon for locations north of Highway 50. Given the uncertainty and the fact we already have 2 Red Flag Warnings ongoing, will hold off this cycle on a watch for Tuesday, though suspect we'll need something for at least locations along/south of the Arkansas River. Over the mountains, showers develop Mon night along the Continental Divide, spreading eastward across most of the high terrain through the day. NBM looked rather aggressive spreading precip into the I-25 corridor by Tue afternoon given strong wly flow, so tried to keep the bulk of precipitation west of the Interstate during the day, though much of the Palmer Divide will see showers by late afternoon. Upper trough moves into the plains Tue evening, with scattered showers at many locations early, then tapering off toward midnight. A few 00z models hint at a slightly more wound up mid level circulation moving along the Palmer Divide and enhancing precip (rain and snow) amounts across the Pikes Peak region, though won't jump on this solution yet, staying close to lower NBM pops and QPF for now.

Mainly dry (a few afternoon sprinkles possible over the higher terrain) and a little cooler on Wed between systems, though some hints of strengthening gap flow and increased fire danger near the ern mountains begin to appear by afternoon as mid level flow turns more wly. Next big trough digs into the Great Basin Thu/Fri, then ejects eastward through the Rockies late Fri into Sat. Ahead of the system, strong southwest winds again develop, with widespread high fire danger both Thu and Fri as warm and dry air mass returns, especially at lower elevations and across the San Luis Valley. Another round of rain/snow then possible late Fri into Sat as trough moves across, though track/timing/strength details still a little nebulous at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 524 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Gusty west-southwest winds will develop at all three sites by 17z today, with gusts 30-35 kts likely through the afternoon hours. Diminishing surface winds through the evening, settling to around 10 kts out of the west for TAF sites by midnight.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ220>222- 224-226>237.