textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High Fire Danger/Red Flag Warnings continue today and Tuesday

- Rain and high mountain snow showers expected late Monday night into Tuesday night, with light to moderate snow accumulations along the Continental Divide

- Fire danger increases again Wednesday through Friday, ahead of another chance of precipitation Friday into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Warm, dry and windy pattern continues today, with upper trough moving through the Great Basin and strong upper jet across Colorado. Gust potential looks a bit higher than Sun over the mountains and San Luis Valley, and won't be too surprised to see a few 50 mph gusts over/near the Sangres as 7h flow is around 40 kts and 5h winds close to 50 kts. Least windy spots will be near the KS border where surface pressure gradient weakens, and also through portions of Pueblo County, where weak ely gradient keeps deeper mixing at bay until mid-afternoon. Maxes again well above seasonal averages with 80s on the plains. As trough approaches, could see a few showers along the Continental Divide by late day, though heavier precip holds off until after sunset.

Upper trough moves through Utah Monday night, then across Colorado Tuesday into Tues night. Snow increases along the Continental Divide Mon night, especially in the San Juans, where some accumulations of up to 3 inches are possible by sunrise Tue, mainly above 9000 feet. Over the remaining high terrain, precip slowly expands eastward starting Tue morning, with scattered to numerous showers over most mountains/valleys through the day. On the plains, strong w-sw flow ahead of the upper trough persists, with winds gusting 35-45 mph and humidity falling off to around 10 percent. Have converted the Fire Weather Watch for Tue to a Red Flag Warning, as we'll have several hours of critical conditions before front arrives late afternoon/early evening. Trough moves overhead Tue night, exiting into the plains Wed morning. Could see at least a chance of showers Tue night over much of the area, highest pops over the central mountains and along the Palmer Divide, where upward motion is slightly stronger, while far southeast plains miss out on most activity. May need a winter wx advisory for San Juans as storm total snow edges upward toward 8 inches, while most remaining higher mountains see lower amounts in the 3-6 inch range. Snow level falls low enough that we could at least see a mix over the Palmer Divide late Tue evening/Wed morning, though not expecting much if any accumulation here. System moves east Wed morning, with just some lingering flurries/sprinkles by sunrise.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Brief upper ridge builds across srn CO on Wednesday, with perhaps just enough lingering moisture for a sprinkle/flurry over the higher peaks through the day. Main concern Wed is return of near critical fire weather conditions, as lee surface trough deepens on the plains, while areas of gap-flow enhanced winds develop over/near the ern mountains. Have held off on a highlight at this point, as critical conditions look rather spotty and short-lived, though Fremont County could get close to criteria by late day. Thursday looks like a high fire danger day across the entire area, as next upper trough moves into the wrn U.S. and deep w-sw flow redevelops across CO. Trough then swings through the Rockies Fri/Sat, with still some spread in track/timing/strength evident. Models/ensembles in general have trended faster with bringing the cold front through the region on Fri, which could limit critical fire weather conditions somewhat, though still a lot timing changes to go before committing to any solution this far out. Shower chances spread from west to east late Fri into Sat as trough swings through, though a good deal of data suggests a track again slightly too far north for heavy precip over srn CO. System does look substantially colder than the past few, and freezing temperatures may be widespread across srn CO both Sat and Sun mornings.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 528 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated across much of the area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

Main concerns across the forecast area will once again be increasing southwest surface winds affecting TAF sites, with gusts of 30-35 kts possible starting around 17z and lasting through around 03z. Included PROB30 wording for -SHRA and lowering clouds affecting KALS tonight from 04z-10z. Farther west, snow with IFR to LIFR conditions expected along the CONTDVD beginning after 00z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>222-224>237. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ227>237.