textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer on Sunday with a slight upturn in thunderstorm activity over the mountains

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across most of the region on Monday and Tuesday, with the best chance for storms over the mountains

- Drying trend develops from Wed into the weekend, though still a chance of afternoon/evening storms each day, mainly across the plains

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 142 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Scattered -tsra developing this afternoon over far sern CO in Baca County, forced by weak s/w trough moving into the OK Panhandle and helped along by pocket of modest instability with CAPE in the 500-900 J/KG range. Farther west, just some moderate cumulus so far over the mountains, where CAPE is less than 200 J/KG as surface dewpoints are mainly in the teens over the high terrain/20s valleys. For the rest of the afternoon into the evening, far sern plains convection should shift into OK by 00z as s/w trough moves east, though gusty outflows (south winds 35-45 mph) will remain possible into the evening. Elsewhere, some brief wind/sprinkles over the high terrain into early evening, then any activity ends quickly by sunset with loss of heating. Clearing then expected overnight with seasonably cool temps. On Monday, very slight upturn in mid- level moisture over the mountains, combined with a 5-10 degf rise in surface temps should generate better coverage of high terrain convection in the afternoon, though dry low levels will again limit precip to mostly sprinkles/brief showers. Could also see a few showers/storms over the far ern plains, forced by convergence along weak surface trough across Las Animas/Baca Counties, though coverage will be limited by lack of upper level support and rather low instability (CAPE 300-500 J/KG). Max temps Mon end up 5-10 degf warmer at most locations, and a few spots on the plains could touch 90f.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 142 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

On Mon/Tue, weakening upper low lifts out of the Desert SW ahead of next strong system digging southward along the West Coast. Combination of increased upward motion with the low, gradual moistening of low/mid levels and modest instability (CAPE 400-800 J/KG) should generate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorm both Mon and Tue afternoons, with the best coverage over the mountains, especially back toward the Continental Divide, where forcing should be strongest. While QPF values are not particularly impressive, most locations should at least see a brief shower/storm both afternoons, with some pockets of rainfall up to a quarter inch over the mountains. Mon looks like the warmest day with temps in the 80s/90s widespread, then a subtle 3-7 degf downturn in maxes forecast.

Main upper low drops into the Great Basin on Wednesday with a push of drier air limiting convection over the mountains Wed afternoon. On the plains, some hints of deeper low level moisture sloshing westward into the I-25 corridor, leading to a potential increase in storm activity, though details on position of low level moisture and instability are still tough to determine this far out. Upper low then slowly weakens and lifts northward into the nrn Rockies Thu/Fri, with weak to moderate s-sw flow aloft across CO. Could see some stronger storms on the plains both days if we can hold onto low level moisture, though with stronger winds aloft farther west, storm strength/severity may be limited. For now, low NBM pops look fine both days, along with temps within a few degf of seasonal averages.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24 hrs. Some cumulus build ups over the mountains this afternoon will push off into the adjacent plains/valley late afternoon/early evening, though chances for -shra remain too low to include in TAFs at this point. There will be some localized, brief gusty winds possible under/near any weak convection/virga, with the best chance for wind near KALS. Skies clear overnight into Sun morning, with weak drainage winds developing.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.