textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions continue over portions of the area through at least Friday with Fire Weather Watches upgraded to Red Flag Warnings on Thursday and a new Fire Weather Watch issued for Friday.

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible for the far southeast plains on Wednesday with damaging winds and large hail possible.

- 100 degree heat returns across much of the plains late week into Saturday.

- Southerly flow brings an uptick in moisture, better thunderstorm chances, and some relief from the 100 degree heat for Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southwest flow between the mean trough out west and ridging out east will continue across the area today. The next impulse evident in WV imagery across southern CA/western AZ will lift northeastward across CO this afternoon and evening. This will bring another round of gusty winds and dry conditions for the mountains, valleys and adjacent I-25 corridor this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer and humidities will be lower than yesterday, so the risk for high based gusty wind thunderstorms will be lower for across the mountains and I-25 corridor vs yesterday. However, synoptic gusts up to 30 mph across the lower elevations and gusts up to 40 mph across the higher areas will be likely. There's more uncertainty on the strength of winds across eastern Las Animas County, which is included in the Red Flag Warning, but this area has a better shot of seeing some convectively enhanced wind gusts from high based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, which is worth keeping them in the Red Flag Warning for now.

Out east, the dry line will set up again across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties where a Marginal to Slight risk for severe thunderstorms has been highlighted by SPC. HREF CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer shears around 30 kts could support some isolated large hail and damaging winds. HREF members show some updraft helicity swaths across Baca and Prowers counties which shifts eastward into KS by 7 PM.

Otherwise, winds will gradually decrease through late evening with another night of poor humidity recovery along the lower eastern slopes of the mountains where enhanced downsloping continues into the lee side surface trough. Dew points in the single digits overnight out west along with clear skies will allow for lows in the 30s for some of our cooler mountain valley locations, while temperatures remain near to a little above normal elsewhere. -KT

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Episodic critical fire weather days will continue through Friday as southwest flow continues and impulses ride through the flow across CO periodically increasing the winds aloft. Thursday will see a return of critical fire weather conditions for the mountains/valleys and I-25 corridor as another disturbance glances by to the northwest during the late afternoon and evening. Streaks of gusty winds and lulls will set up along the I-25 corridor which will mean not all areas along the I-25 corridor counties will see continuous gusty winds. But at least half of each zone appears to see a 3 hour window for critical fire weather conditions which is sufficient to warrant the upgrade to a Red Flag Warning. Red flag conditions may persist through midnight along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains Thursday night as the lee side low kicks eastward keeping gusty winds continuing into the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern counties though the dry line position should be closer to the KS border. A strong storm or two will be possible across far eastern areas on Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures will be noticeably warmer with highs cresting over 100 across portions of the southeast plain with highs well into the 80s for the valleys and 60s/70s for the mountains.

Critical fire weather conditions will return for Friday as the heat continues to increase. Temperatures will top out between 100 and 105 across the lower Arkansas River Valley and most of the southeast plains which will drop humidities to between 4 and 10 percent. Dew points in the single digits and teens across the mountains and interior valleys will result in critically low afternoon humidities as low as 4 percent. So winds will be the driving factor for determining where critical fire weather conditions will occur. Odds are greatest for gusty winds to resurface across the mountains and valleys with a lower probability across the I-25 corridor and southeast plains as the ridge to the south builds northward. Will confine the next round of Fire Weather Watches to the mountains and valleys for now. It is possible some expansions into the I-25 corridor may be needed.

Saturday will continue to be hot and dry with critically low afternoon humidities, but with the building high to the south, it may take just enough of an edge off the afternoon wind gusts to keep most areas under critical fire weather thresholds. Will need to watch this closely and make adjustments as needed.

The wetter and slightly cooler signal continues in the long range models for Sunday into early next week as the upper high builds over the southern U.S. and southerly flow advects moisture northward into CO. Winds will be weaker which should keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. Of course with the weaker flow and greater moisture, we may transition into a flash flood risk, especially for the fresh burn scar locations. Will need to monitor this closely. But for now, grids carry near normal summer high temperatures with daily scattered thunderstorms, especially over and near the mountains. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds tonight will increase and become gusty tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing becomes established, with gusts between 20-30 knots expected. Otherwise, increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon and dry conditions are anticipated for this TAF period. In addition, smoke and haze may impact both KPUB and KCOS through tomorrow given a wildfire within the Wet Mountains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will continue through Friday. The Fire Weather Watch for Thursday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the mountains, valleys and adjacent I-25 corridor counties. Have kept the Red Flag Warning going through midnight as winds will stay gusty along the eastern slopes through late evening until the surface lee side low pushes eastward. Have also issued another Fire Weather Watch for Friday, though kept it confined to mainly the mountain and valley zones for now where winds will be strongest. Given the very hot temperatures for both Thu and Fri, RHs will be critical both days, and winds will be the determining factor for fire weather highlight locations. The plains will see isolated thunderstorms, especially near the CO/KS border both days with better chances for wetting rains under the stronger cells.

Saturday will be hot but with lighter winds for most areas which may keep critical fire weather conditions more spotty in coverage.

Moisture increases for Sunday into early next week with better odds for wetting rains across the district. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>230-233. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ220>230. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ220>225-229.