textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger continues to ramp up across the area this weekend and into next week.

- Highest chance for critical fire weather conditions over and near the mountains.

- Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected over the eastern plains Saturday.

- Dry over the mountains next week, with daily showers/storms over the plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today...

A bit warmer than yesterday, with highs in the 80s-90s across the region. Winds aloft weaken as a ridge builds in overhead, giving us a 1-day break from any elevated fire weather concerns. Meanwhile, a modest surge of moisture will move in from the south, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across our southeast mountains. Storms will generally be short-lived, pushing east onto the plains and dissipating, with one or two storms possible over Pikes Peak as well. Main storm impacts will be gusty outflow winds, as dewpoint depressions at the surface will still be fairly large over and near I-25, only improving closer to the Kansas border. If any storms manage to make it a bit further east, closer to Baca or Prowers Counties, they could take advantage of the more moist air and intensify for a short time, but even in that case would probably just see stronger winds and some small hail.

Saturday...

A brief disturbance will pass by in the upper-level flow to our north, while another trough moves in from the northwest. During the afternoon hours, lee troughing will develop across the eastern plains of Colorado, with a few different hazards at play.

First, breezy west-southwest flow will mix down over the higher terrain and adjacent mountain valleys. Paired with dry conditions at the surface, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of our CWA through the afternoon and into Saturday Night.

Over the far eastern plains, southerly flow will bring up more moist air from the Gulf region, assisting in dryline formation. Showers and thunderstorms will initiate where that boundary sets up, pushing east later in the evening. Depending on how far west the dryline mixes in the afternoon, along with expected dewpoints and shear, storms may become strong to severe, with most of the eastern plains outlooked by the SPC.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue across the region as we move into next week. High pressure will build in south of the Four Corners Region, keeping breezy west to southwest flow settled in across our area. Over the mountains and adjacent valleys, critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon through at least mid-week. For the plains, models indicate modest northwest flow at the mid-levels, with persist upsloping possible at the surface. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with highest certainty closer to the CO-KS border. With a few surface boundaries expected to set up in the area, coupled with a decent shear profile and the chance for some decently unstable air, strong to severe storms will be on the table most afternoons.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be diurnally driven. There will be a slight chance of some high based thunder affecting KCOS and KALS this afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds will be the main concern.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Still expecting a very active week, fire weather-wise, across the region.

Friday: Spotty critical conditions are expected over the Continental Divide and portions of the San Luis Valley. However, winds will be a bit weaker throughout the day, so no highlights needed as of now.

Saturday: Critical conditions become much more widespread as stronger west-southwest winds move in across the higher terrain. Temperatures will increase across the area, and RH values will dive into the single digits in the afternoon across portions of the mountains and high valleys. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for large portions of the area, including all of the higher terrain and valleys as well as portions of the plains due to gap flow and dry, downsloping winds.

Sunday Onwards: Dry, warm conditions will last throughout most of next week. Critical conditions are expected each day across the higher terrain, with low RH values and frequently gusty winds during the afternoons. At this time, no precipitation is expected over the mountains this week, though afternoon storms will be possible just east of the Sangres and out towards the Kansas border.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220>225-227>233.