textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of showers along the Continental Divide through Wednesday with light to moderate snow accumulations at and above 10,000 ft.

- Breezy to windy conditions and much cooler Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms across the plains.

- Freezing temperatures for the San Luis Valley Wednesday night and Thursday night, with Freeze/Frost possible across portions of the southeast plains Thursday and Friday nights.

- Warmer and drier into the Weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate southwest flow aloft in place across the Rockies, with an upper low and broad upper trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Breezy southerly winds have mixed down across the lower elevations at this time, helping to boost temperatures into the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains this afternoon, with current readings in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain at this time.

Latest model data remains consistent through the day Tuesday, with increasing southwest flow aloft across the region, as an embedded short wave rounding the base of the West Coast system, ejects across the Great Basin tonight, and continues across south central Colorado into northeastern Colorado through the day, as said upper low digs into the Southern Great Basin by Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to increasing coverage of showers along and west of the Continental Divide later tonight, which continues through the day Tuesday, with the best coverage across the southwest orographically enhanced eastern San Juan Mtns. Relatively warm southwest flow to keep snow levels at and above 10,000 feet with a few inches of snow accumulation possible through the day Tuesday. Further east, breezy south to southwest flow will help warm temperatures to at and above seasonal levels once again on Tuesday, with a cold front across northern Colorado pushing south and west Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing marked changes in the weather for eastern Colorado on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

While model data still differ on the exact location of the ejecting upper low, most agree that said Southern Great Basin low digs to near the Four Corners Tuesday night, before lifting out across southwest and south central Colorado Wednesday, into northeastern Colorado Wednesday night and into the Northern High Plains on Thursday.

This brings moist southerly flow across south central and southeast Colorado through the day Wednesday, with widespread showers spreading from west to east across the region through Wednesday night, as the upper low pivots across northeast Colorado. With colder air associated with the translating system, snow levels drop to between 8,000-9,000 feet Wednesday and especially Wednesday night, leading another 3 to 6 inches of snow possible across the higher terrain of the southwest and central mtns through Wednesday night, as flow aloft becomes more north to northwest behind the parting system.

Further east across the plains, moist easterly upslope flow Tuesday night and early Wednesday looks to develop widespread stratus across plains, keeping temperatures some 15-20F colder than Tuesday, with readings mainly in the 50s on Wednesday. Waa showers spread across the region through the day, and with the proximity of the upper low, can't rule out a stronger storm or two into Wednesday night, before precipitation winds down Thursday, save for the potential for wrap around precipitation across the central Mtns into the Pikes Peak region and southeast Mtns Thursday morning and afternoon. With the current progged movement of the system, light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches look to be possible across the higher elevations, of Pikes Peak region and into the southeast Mtns Wednesday night and Thursday, with locally higher amounts possible, if the further south progged location of the GFS turns out to be more correct. Temperatures in the 50s to around 60 across the plains on Thursday will be accompanied by gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph making for a raw feeling day.

As for lows in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain Wednesday night into Thursday morning, will likely prompt a freeze watch/warning for the San Luis Valley by later shifts, and lows into the 30s across the plains Thursday night and Friday night leading to possible frost and freeze highlights across portions of the plains, especially northern portions. Those needing to protect sensitive plants and outdoor irrigation should start to take action for the first hint of the end of the growing season.

Model data continues to indicate warmer and drier conditions developing into the weekend, as upper level ridging builds into the region from the west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with lowering VFR cigs at ALS at the tail end of this taf period. Breezy south to southwest winds of 15-30kts at the terminals through the afternoon. Winds decouple through the early evening, though with increasing southerly flow aloft, could see llws, especially at COS through the overnight hours, before winds mix out again, leading to gusty southerly winds developing at the terminals between 14Z-16Z Tuesday.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.