textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- An influx of monsoon moisture will provide additional thunderstorms along and west of I-25 on Monday, including all of the mountain burn scars.

- Drier and warmer for mid week with more isolated thunderstorm activity. - Moisture and thunderstorm chances increase again next weekend over the mountains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Similar setup as yesterday, with the strongest and more energetic flow situated to the northwest of the area. Additionally, the highest moisture and instability remains to the northwest as well. With that being said, can see some subtle waves traversing the flow to our southwest and as this arrives later this afternoon, should see precip development expand further east southeast across the higher terrain and into portions of the I-25 corridor. However, still anticipate it to be isolated to widely scattered as additional forcing looks to be lacking, outside of the mid level energy moving overhead. The precip will consist of showers and isolated thunderstorms, with localized gusts to around 50 mph, lightning and spotty light to moderate rainfall remaining possible with the stronger storms. Flash flood risk remains low but with the Willow burn scar right on the edge of moisture and instability axis, will need to monitor for the possibility of a stronger storm or two this afternoon and evening. Drying will be the trend tonight, however, can't rule out some additional light showers.

Guidance is still in fair agreement with lifting a more defined vort max across the region Monday and Monday night. Should see this vort max push into southwest Colorado in the afternoon, and then lift through the western half of the state through the evening hours. Expected path of this system would keep much of the stronger forcing along and west of the Continental Divide, however, the strength of this system will bring about a good response from the mid and low levels. South southeast surface winds and southeasterly 700mb flow ramp up during the afternoon and evening hours and should help with additional forcing for ascent. At this point, not overly confident on the eastward extent of the precip development, but would think at least isolated to widely scattered showers and storms should be able to push off into portions of the I-25 corridor. With respect to coverage and strength of this precip, should see light to moderate showers, potentially heavy at times, under any stronger shower or storm over the mountains and mountain valleys. The instability across the higher terrain looks to be lower, but the forcing should help to offset that. Could see the need for a Flash Flood Watch for the Willow burn scar, but will let later forecasts address that. There is still some uncertainty with the strength of any storm over the I-25 corridor, as placement of the higher instability is still unsure. Advection of a more moist and unstable air west over the plains is likely, but confidence with how far west is still somewhat low. This will need to be monitored, as this much higher instability could easily push into the I-25 corridor and bring a risk for at least a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm or two.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Main vort max will lift to the north during the evening hours on Monday, with any lingering shower or thunderstorm development expected to push out of the CWA. However, decent moisture will remain for much of the night under persistent southwesterly flow aloft, which could support additional shower development. Given this setup, did keep low chance pops over much of the area.

A drying and warming trend returns for Tuesday through Thursday with mainly isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures rebound back into the mid to upper 90s by late week.

Another batch of monsoon moisture spreads northward across CO late week into next weekend in southwesterly flow aloft. This should bring another increase in thunderstorm probabilities across the mountains beginning Friday. Low level moisture remains rather lack luster across the plains which should keep thunderstorms more isolated and higher based with gusty winds, and localized light to moderate rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Similar setup once again today, with mainly dry and VFR conditions over the TAF sites. Again, the exception will be for a few hour window this afternoon into early evening where a low chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm is expected over all of the TAF sites. If a shower or storm were to move across the TAF sites, it would be brief, but with gusty outflow winds likely occurring. Have not included any additional mention of precip, however, there is a low chance for additional light rain showers overnight tonight. If this precip did develop, don't anticipate any impacts at this time.

Lighter winds will generally prevail at all sites, however, gusty outflow winds will remain the big challenge. This is especially the case this afternoon and once again later this evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.