textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to at times heavy rainfall continues across southeast Colorado through tonight, as high impact storm system lifts out across northeastern New Mexico overnight. - Potential for severe storms across the far southeast plains tonight.

- Warmer and drier weather Friday and into the weekend.

- Occasional passing waves brings chances of precipitation for the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has a strong upper low spinning across northwestern New Mexico, with a notable dry slot wrapping around the system from Old Mexico into eastern New Mexico, western Texas and far southeast Colorado at this time. H7 low and surface reflection are being analyzed across the OK/Texas Panhandle, with northerly gradient flow developing across southeast Colorado at time. PWATs remain very high, especially across eastern Colorado with readings of 1 to 1.4 inches across the plains at this time. NWS DDC just posted 1.99 inches on their 18Z sounding, which is the 5th wettest sounding on record for DDC (out of database of 55,000 soundings taken)! Regional radars have no echoes across the far southeast plains with said dry slot, with H7 northeast flow keeping scattered showers across the eastern slopes into the I-25 Corridor at this time. Radars are indicating new shower and thunderstorm development across north central New Mexico at this time, associated with deformation as the upper low continues east across northern New Mexico. For tonight, still expecting widespread showers across the eastern mtns and plains, with strengthening H7 north to northeast flow, as main upper low across north central New Mexico pivots into the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight. With that said, latest high res models keep the H5 deformation band further south and east across the southeast plains, where a few strong to severe storms could develop late this evening into early Thursday morning. Said deformation band continues to lift out across the southeast plains early Thursday morning, with precipitation diminishing from northwest to southeast into early Thursday afternoon. With the amount of available moisture, heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be a concern, especially across the Aspen Acres burn area, the southeast mtns and the southeast plains, which have seen 1 to 3 inches of precipitation over the past 24 hours. Latest cams also keep the bulk of precipitation along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor into tomorrow morning, as well. Further north across the Pikes Peak region, totals have been less, but with the amount of available moisture in place, will keep Flood Watches in tact through tonight.

As for winds, still expecting to see gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph developing through the evening into the overnight hours, with the strongest gradient flow across the far southeast plains. Winds diminish through the day tomorrow, becoming light easterly upslope across the I-25 Corridor in the afternoon. With that said, and only partial clearing, highs will remain below seasonal levels tomorrow, but warmer than today, mainly in the 60s across the plains, with 40s and 50s across the higher terrain and around 60 for the high mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For Friday and into the weekend, warmer and drier air within more westerly flow works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to warming and drying trend areawide through the weekend. With the drier air moving into the area, will need to watch for possible freezing overnight temperatures, especially across the high mountain valleys. By early next week, latest models indicate the upper ridge flattening across the region, allowing for occasional disturbances within the stronger flow in place across the Northern Tier, to bring occasional chances for precipitation and slightly cooler temperatures into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Occasional MVFR conditions within stronger showers can be expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the evening, with gusty northerly winds 15-25kts, especially at COS and PUB developing through the afternoon and persisting through the late evening. Showers diminish from northwest to southeast overnight, with mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the taf period. There is a low chance of fog developing at the terminals early Thursday morning, however, there will likely be enough mid and high level clouds to prevent low cigs from developing.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067>071. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>089-093>099.