textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple record breaking temps likely once again Tuesday and Wednesday, with areas of critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday.

- Lots of uncertainty for Thursday as strong frontal system will push through sometimes during the day (timing issues).

- Much cooler Friday.

- Pattern change by mid week; afternoon and evening thunderstorms finally return???

UPDATE

Issued at 712 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Humidity values have increased above critical thresholds even though winds remain gusty in and near the mountains. Have let the Red Flag Warning expire as planned at 7 PM. -KT

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Rest of today...Areas of cirrus will continue to move over the region through the afternoon. Otherwise it will be nearly dry over the region into tonight. The only exception to this is the latest HRRR is trying to break out some light showers over N El Paso county late this afternoon and early evening. I am not too confident that these showers will amount to much if they occur, but have included so low 10% pop over N El Paso county during the aforementioned time period.

Winds today will be diurnally driven, so most of the smoke from the 24 fire will remain banked up against the southern face of the Pikes Peak massif this morning. We have been slow to mix out today over the greater Pueblo area, but once it does, the smoke should start to push off to the east. Later this evening, a light westerly wind should develop and last through the night, and this will likely push the surface smoke across N Pueblo county.

Tomorrow...

It will be warmer tomorrow across the region, with record temps likely as readings will get into the 80s across the plains and around 80 in the San Luis Valley. Winds will be lighter tomorrow, but we will still see spotty critical fire weather conditions across the region, mainly across the southern parts of the San Luis Valley and parts of Huerfano county and portions of eastern Fremont county. Winds will mainly be diurnally driven over the plains with northwesterly flow over the mountains.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

90s return to the region on Wednesday, and winds pick up a bit over the higher terrain. Likewise, critical fire weather conditions will return, with Fremont county and the San Luis valley showing the most widespread conditions. Part of Teller county along with the southern mtns will also see critical conditions and have added these areas into a RED FLAG WARNING for Wednesday. Without saying, record high temps are near certain.

Thursday...

This is the most difficult day of the forecast. Confidence is very high that a strong cold front will move across the region. The main concern is timing. If the front is slow to arrive, then we may see the entire fcst area under Critical Fire weather conditions. However if the front moves in earlier than guidance indicates (and this is normally the case), then critical fire weather conditions may not occur as RH values will likely quickly recover behind the front. In either case, a strong wind shift on this day occurring during the daylight hours will have detrimental effects on fire-fighting the "24 fire". It is likely by late in the day that strong north to northeast winds will occur over the region and RH values will be increasing behind the strong frontal passage. Some light showers will be possible over the Palmer Divide and S mtns during the afternoon and early evening hours. Much cooler weather will move in Thursday night.

Friday...

Much cooler weather expected on this day. Max temps will likely be in the 50s to around 60 plains, so no fire weather concerns are expected on this day. We may also see some showers west of I-25 and across all of the mountains. The interior valleys will remain warm and max temps around 70 will be possible in the San Luis Valley.

For the weekend into early next week, moisture will be on the increase across the region and we will start to see more areas of showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening. Most of this activity will occur over the mtns and I-25 corridor region with only isolated activity over the far eastern plains. It will warm up though, with 70s and 80s likely, so some more daily records may fall. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. At KCOS and KPUB, winds will remain light, generally under 12 kts. At KALS, light winds overnight and into Tue morning, then winds become nwly and strengthen after 18z, with gusts 20-25 kts until 02z-03z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ221-222-224-225.