textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue into this evening over portions of the area.

- Mountain snow picks up tonight and lasts into early next week, heaviest over the high peaks.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances pick up in our area, with a wetter pattern expected Sunday and Monday, as well as later next week.

- More fire weather concerns on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Aloft, breezy southwest flow will continue, leading to a bit of moisture transport into the mountains. Meanwhile, post-frontal winds remain from the NE over most of the plains, leading to cooler and cloudier conditions that will persist into tonight. The exception to this is the far southern plains along I-25, where the westerlies are downsloping to the surface and pushing the front back. Red Flag Conditions are expected to persist over this area, as well as the San Luis Valley and Lake and Chaffee Counties, through 8pm or so this evening.

Still expecting a few isolated showers over the peaks of the mountains, as well as the Pikes Peak Region, into this evening. Cool post-frontal air, combined with a general lack of instability and widespread forcing, should generally just net the Pikes Peak area some light rain, virga, and maybe a rumble or two of thunder.

As we move into the overnight hours, a low pressure system will continue moving in from the California coastline. As it does, southwest flow increases aloft, bringing more moisture transport into the mountains. Snow will pick up over the peaks of our mountains moving into early Sunday morning, with the potential for a quick few inches of accumulation.

Overnight lows tonight will be somewhat mild, with 30s-40s over most of the lower areas and 20s over the mountains.

Sunday...

Shortwave trough moves into and through our area on Sunday, bringing some wetter conditions to much of our forecast area. Snow will spread across the Continental Divide throughout the morning hours. At this time, still expecting the heaviest accumulations of the eastern San Juans and the Sawatch Range, and have issued a Winter Weather Advisory, in effect midnight tonight through midnight on Monday. Meanwhile, rain showers will spread across the rest of the forecast area, outside of potentially the southern I-25 corridor. Given temps will be in the 60s-70s during the afternoon, expecting purely liquid precip.

Southerly surface winds will advect warm, moist air into our CWA at the surface, and models are resolving some pockets of instability during the afternoon hours. Notably, a southeasterly fetch will likely bring some higher CAPE values, 1000 J/kg or more depending on the model, towards the CO/KS border. SPC outlook currently has most of the CWA outlooked for general thunder, with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in NE Kiowa County. If future models continue to follow the trend the deterministic NAM has taken this afternoon, we may see that axis of instability work a bit further west, giving our far eastern plains the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The long-term forecast still looks to depend on the development of a messy upper-level pattern. Several embedded waves will be passing over our area as a broad upper trough moves along to our north and a second trough moves in from the west coast.

Monday will be a few degrees cooler as the passing wave sends another weak front down over the eastern plains. Highs will generally stick to the 60s to low-70s, with the biggest drop in temps over our far SE counties. Meanwhile, areas along and north of highway 50 will see another chance for precipitation throughout most of the day, with the higher mountain peaks receiving some more light snow while lower areas will see rain showers. The southern extent of these showers will depend on the exact path of the shortwave as it moves off to our northeast, but in general best chances for wetting rain will be north of highway 50, particularly closer to the Palmer Divide thanks to locally enhanced upsloping. Post-frontal winds will be out of the east during the latter half of the day, which could also help things along, though current POPs east and south of Pueblo County are only isolated to low-end scattered.

Tuesday onwards, westerly flow aloft increases as we transition between upper waves. Widespread critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Tuesday, as the increased winds line up with warmer temperatures and RH values near or below critical thresholds.

Temperatures appear to cool off later in the week as a shortwave and another upper low track across the Four Corners Region, bringing higher chances of snow for the mountains and showers/storms for the eastern plains as we move into the late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

KALS: VFR is expected through 24 hours. Winds at KALS will remain out of the southwest through most of the day, gusting to 30-35 knots this afternoon as mid level clouds move in, hovering on the high edge of MVFR.

KCOS: Post-frontal winds will turn east-southeasterly throughout this afternoon. Expect gusts in the afternoon 25-30 knots, with increasing mid level cloud cover. Cigs are expected to drop into the MVFR range tonight due to upsloping winds.

KPUB: Winds this afternoon will generally retain an easterly component, swinging between ENE and ESE. Gusts this afternoon will increase to around 30 knots, with cloud cover moving in by this evening. Overnight, winds will weaken as upsloping helps increase cloud cover. Cigs are expected to drop into the MVFR range through early Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Red Flag conditions for today are generally on track, particularly over the Upper Arkansas. The San Luis Valley and southern I-25 corridor aren't quite hitting yet, but both winds and RH values are close. Winds and RH should both meet criteria easily as we head into this afternoon.

Expecting winds across the lower elevations to gust 25-30 mph or more by mid-afternoon, with slightly stronger gusts over the Upper Arkansas. RH will hover close to 15 percent, but downsloping winds should easily push those numbers down into Red Flag territory, likely to around 10 percent or so. Will have to also keep an eye on gap flow areas along I-25 this afternoon, though with the front having passed by this morning, surface winds shouldn't be too gusty as you head north of Pueblo. Will monitor and update as needed.

More widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected for our area on Tuesday. West winds aloft will increase across the region as another low pressure system approaches. RH looks marginal, between 10-15 percent, but with breezy west winds gap flow will easily push things into critical territory.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-224- 229-230. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Sunday night for COZ060-068.