textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory in place for the San Luis Valley this morning through 9 AM.

- Above normal temperatures forecast through Monday.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain today, then increase in coverage starting Saturday.

- Active weather returns to the region starting Sunday, lasting into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Currently...Mostly clear skies expected across the region overnight, allowing for some efficient radiational cooling. Temps are forecast to drop into the 30s to around 40F for the high valleys, and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for the San Luis Valley until 9 AM Friday morning, with the coldest morning temps expected to be across the central and southern portions of the Valley.

Today and tonight...Upper flow across the region shifts to a more west to southwest direction today, as a large Pacific trough begins to strengthen across the Pacific NW. Meanwhile, two other features begin to make waves - a transient upper shortwave crosses the Four Corners region, and a separate low center off the southern CA coast absorbs remnant moisture from Hurricane Rachel through the evening. The upper shortwave crossing the region will help kick off some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection across the higher terrain, with best chances along the Continental Divide. After a cold start for some of the high valleys this morning, it should be another very warm day across the region with highs forecast to be 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals. Look for max temps in the 70s for the high valleys, and 80s to near 90F for the plains. Overnight tonight into Saturday, increasing southwest flow should keep minimums slightly more mild with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Overall, most significant changes to extended forecast over the past 24 hrs have been to push the path of the ejecting system slightly further to the north, and delaying the cold front for eastern CO until Tue morning instead of Mon night.

Saturday...The Pacific low pressure trough digs further south along the West Coast and absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. Deep southwest flow aloft develops across the Four Corners, feeding this moisture into western CO and dramatically increasing precipitation chances and coverage starting in the afternoon and lasting through the night. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Simon starts to push north along the Mexico coastline. Forecast QPF totals through Saturday total approximately around .4 of an inch across the southwest mts, while the rest of the Divide receives lesser amounts. While the high valleys will cool a couple degrees due to increasing cloud cover and precip chances, the eastern plains will remain hot. Look for highs in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F once again for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Strong Pacific low system stays anchored along the CA coast Sunday through the first half of Monday, keeping strong southwest flow aloft over the Four Corners. The system finally makes a push onshore Monday night. At the same time, the remnants of Simon slide north along the Mexico coastline and get absorbed with the flow aloft and pushed into CO, continuing rainfall across all of the higher terrain but mainly focusing along the Continental Divide and the southern mts. Forecast QPF shows a bullseye across the eastern San Juan Mts, especially on Sunday, of around an inch of additional water, so a Flash Flood Watch is still not ruled out for Sunday into Monday. As for temps, the plains will remain hot and above normal. For the high valleys, Sunday will still be a bit warm with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s, then cooling on Monday with highs in the 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A very active weather pattern through mid week, as the upper low tracks across CA, NV and UT on Tues, then CO and towards the Dakotas on Wed. The forecast path of the system is a bit further north than previous solutions, which results in timing changes for cooling as well as the potential for precipitation to spread from the mts to across the plains. First, a cold front is now expected to drop south across eastern CO Tue morning, so anticipated high temps on Tue are not as cool as previously thought. Second, temps are not expected to cool enough across the higher terrain for the switch over to snow until late Mon night into Tue, so the time frame for accumulating snow is from after midnight Mon night into Wed. Finally, isolated to scattered showers spread to the eastern plains Tue evening through Wed as the upper system continue pushing to the northeast. There are still a few days to watch how this system progresses, but winds may get fairly strong and gusty Wed as the system passes.

Thursday...The upper low pressure system continues to the northeast out of the region, with brisk northwest flow then settling in across the Rocky Mt region. Long range models trend towards much cooler temperatures on Thu and into the upcoming weekend. Moore

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1056 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions with generally light diurnal wind regimes remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Similar to the past few days, isolated showers and a possible storm, will develop over the higher terrain Friday afternoon and persist through the loss of solar heating. This convection not expected to impact the terminals.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071.