textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly confined to southern areas today as drier air spreads in from the west and north.

- Drier and warmer for all areas Wednesday and Thursday.

- Monsoon moisture increases again for Friday into early next week bringing a return thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Dampening wave/upper trough across western Colorado this morning will continue to lift northeastward across CO through the day, with drier air spreading in behind. Morning showers will continue ahead of the trough axis across portions of the southeast mountains and plains, though main impacts will be spotty light to moderate rainfall. Axis of monsoon moisture translates eastward through the afternoon with the best chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains, Raton Mesa region and southern portions of the southeast plains. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm with dew points in the 50s, CAPEs up to 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30 kts. Some small hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms, primarily across Las Animas and Baca counties through the evening. Otherwise, it will be drier out west as dew points mix out into the 30s across the higher terrain and interior valleys. We may struggle to see even an isolated storm across the western mountains and valley regions. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid 80s to mid 90s across the southeast plains, with 70s to lower 80s across the valleys, and 50s and 60s for the mountains. Clearing skies tonight coupled with a drier airmass over the region will allow for efficient radiational cooling with temperatures falling into the upper 30s for some of the higher mountain valleys.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Dry southwest flow will keep most of southern Colorado precipitation free for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures warming back into the 90s across the plains and even some near 100 degree readings across far eastern areas. Valleys will return into the 80s with 60s and 70s for the mountain areas. Breezy southwesterly afternoon winds may bring some spotty critical fire weather conditions along portions of the I-25 corridor and San Luis Valley where precipitation has been more scant. However these conditions do not look widespread enough to require any fire weather highlights.

Monsoon moisture picks up again from the south and steadily increases from Friday through the weekend. This will bring a return of afternoon and evening thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible. The best chances for rain will be across the mountains and valleys where precipitable waters approach 140-160% of normal in ensemble means. There will be rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the plains as well, but lee troughing and southwesterly surface flow keeps low level moisture quality more limited. This should keep any heavier rainfall east of the mountains more spotty in coverage.

Not much change into early next week with the moisture plume oriented across western CO and daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances continuing. Precipitable waters decrease a bit for southern areas as the southern plains upper high expands westward and nudges the best moisture plume across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin towards the middle of next week. Precipitable waters remain in the 110-140% of normal range which will keep at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the forecast, the stronger of which could still produce locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain above normal. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and diurnally driven.

The only concern today is there may be a passing shower/-tsra vicinity KPUB late this afternoon/early evening. Will adjust TAF as needed.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.