textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today, with upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. High fire danger for the Central Mountains due to gusty winds and low humidity values.

- More widespread fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday with gusty southwest winds and very low humidity values combining with very hot temperatures.

- Precipitation chances increase Sunday into mid next week for the Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Currently...quiet weather will prevail through the overnight hours across the region. A cold front arrived earlier, and flow at the surface has been gusty out of the northeast to east. These winds look to continue through much of the overnight period decreasing towards sunrise. Temperatures remain mild, with 60s and 70s across the lower elevations. A few degree of cooling into the upper 50s to lower 60s is forecast through morning.

Today and tonight...northwesterly flow will continue through this afternoon, with weak energy dropping south across the southern portion of the state. Dry air and gusty winds will impact the Central Mountains, and a Red Flag Warning is in place for this afternoon and evening. High-res model guidance does develop very isolated showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sangre de Cristo range, into the Raton Mesa by late afternoon. The main concern for these storms will be lightning and gusty outflow winds near 40 mph. This activity will dissipate by early evening, as the weak upper energy drops into New Mexico. Across the Plains, flow will transition to southeasterly by this afternoon. This will keep cooler air in place, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the Plains.

Overnight, upper ridging to the west will build east into Colorado. Once the showers and thunderstorms shift south into New Mexico, dry conditions will prevail into Friday morning.Lows tonight will fall into the 50s for the Plains, and 40s for the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Models remain in decent agreement through the extended period, with high fire danger on Saturday, and increased active weather Sunday into mid next week.

Friday...upper ridging will shift eastward across Colorado through Friday evening. Flow across the area will be weaker, and only very spotty critical fire weather conditions will be present over the Central Mountains during the afternoon. Weak energy moving through the upper ridge will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, initially over the Eastern Mountains, then tracking east into the Plains, dissipating by late evening. Small hail, lightning and gusty outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms. Temperatures on Friday will continue to warm, with upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations.

Saturday...the upper ridge will shift eastward into the Central Plains, with flow aloft transitioning southwesterly. Hot temperatures and high fire danger will return to much of southern Colorado. Dry air will spread eastward by early morning over the higher terrain, then down into the Plains by early afternoon. Enhanced mixing will boost temperatures into the upper 90s to lower 100s across the Plains. Gusty southwest winds near 40 to 45 mph will spread over the area, with humidity values falling under 10 percent. The main question will be how far east the dry air makes it. Current model guidance has the dryline out near the Kansas border, and the Fire Weather Watch excludes the eastern counties. If the dry air pushes further east, those counties may need to be added. In addition, convection may develop along the dryline out near the Kansas border. Shear and instability may be enough to produce one or two strong to severe storms. Again, if the dry air pushes further east, any severe threat will be east into Kansas.

Sunday through Thursday...the upper pattern becomes increasingly messy from Sunday into the middle of next week. Upper ridging is forecast to develop over the Desert Southwest, north into Utah, with persistent northwest flow across Colorado. Multiple embedded disturbances and cold fronts look to impact the region, with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Plains. The first potential wave and cold front looks to arrive Sunday evening into Monday morning with widespread activity on the Plains. Another upper wave on Monday may bring another round of activity to the Plains, along with stronger storms. Continued waves Tuesday and Wednesday could bring additional rounds of storms. PWAT values will be elevated on the Plains in excess of an inch, and precipitation efficiency and heavy rain could be possible. Overall, temperatures will be a bit cooler, with 80s for the Plains. While there appears to be an uptick in precipitation chances, there is still plenty of time and spread in the models and ensembles for things to shift and change.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A stronger cold front will drop south into the eastern CO plains tonight, bringing an initial NE shift, that will swing around to a SE direction through the day Thu.

Therefore, VFR conditions are anticipated over the next 24 hrs for the forecast area, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Main concerns will be shifting, gusty winds with gusts up to 30 kts across the eastern plains, affecting KCOS and KPUB late between 06z and 11z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening for the Central Mountains due to gusty winds and low humidity values. More widespread fire weather conditions are forecast for Saturday across much of the region. Southwest winds with gusts near 40 to 45 mph will combine with humidity values under 10 percent and very hot temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s to produce the dangerous conditions. The main question will be how far east the drier air pushes, and counties out near the Kansas border may need to be added if the dryline is pushed into Kansas.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220>225-227>233.