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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- After a brief break, wind-driven snow redevelops tonight and continues along the Continental Divide into the weekend. Plains to remain dry and exceptionally warm today and tomorrow.

- If you have been missing winter, a much anticipated cold front looks to come through Sunday morning, bringing in much colder temperatures, along with more widespread chances for light, but wind driven, snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 242 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Currently...An upper pacific trough remains just off the West Coast this morning. Strong west to southwest winds aloft were in place across the state, with mid and high levels cloudiness streaming across the forecast area as per latest satellite imagery. Temps as of 2 AM were 30s and 40s for most spots, though a few locations receiving intermittent westerly gusts remained in the 50s.

Today...Not a lot of change to the upper pattern through the day today, though the upper trough finally starts to make a move onshore. Strong west to southwest flow aloft will continue, so gusty winds for the higher elevations along with very warm conditions for the eastern plains will continue to be the case. Models do show a brief lag in snowfall along the mts at least through the first half of the day. Some elevated fire weather conditions are starting to crop up in Teller County this afternoon as well, due to the brisk winds and low humidity levels. For now, not enough of the zone is forecast to experience those conditions so no fire weather highlight has been issued. Forecast high temps today will likely NOT break records unless the atmosphere over-performs, but will still climb to around 20 degrees above seasonal normals. Plan on highs today in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s for the plains.

Tonight...The upper longwave trough pushes east into the Intermountain West and Great Basin tonight, with models showing snow redeveloping across all of western CO including along the Continental Divide late. Snow amounts through tonight look to be around 2 to 4 inches for the eastern San Juans where the best orographics are expected to be. However, snowfall there is forecast to continue through Sat into Sun morning, and combined with the strong W-SW winds gusting as high as 40-50 mph, a Winter Weather Advisory was warranted for the eastern San Juans starting at 10 PM tonight. The remainder of the mts will see lighter amounts, but will still deal with the gusty winds creating blowing and drifting snow, so later shifts may hoist additional highlights. As for overnight low temps, look for lows in the 20s to around 30F for the high valleys, and 30s to lower 40s for the plains. Moore

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Saturday..

Our incoming system has slowed a bit more, which will keep us even more firmly in the warm and dry on the plains camp for one more day. Daytime highs look to climb right back into the 60s and 70s for most of the plains, with 50s for the Pikes Peak region and the San Luis Valley. Winds will be breezy out of the west and southwest, with gusts to 55 mph or so over the southern mountains, and gusts to 45 mph or so over our gap flow in Huerfano County. Luckily, our humidities increase as well, so fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

As the system approaches, snowfall rates increase over the high country from west to east, moving into the central mountains by Saturday afternoon. This will mean periods of moderate to heavy snowfall for the San Juans though, where orographics will be favored. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for this area through late Sunday morning, with heaviest snowfall rates expected Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting to 50 mph will be possible as well, which may lead to periods of wind driven snow and very dangerous travel conditions, especially over Wolf Creek Pass. Storm totals of around 6 to 12 inches are expected for the San Juans by Sunday evening.

Saturday Night through Sunday..

Models continue to slow the timing of the incoming cold front. We still think that winter is coming.. but the front doesn't look to come through our plains until early Sunday morning now. Gusty north winds along and behind it pick up between midnight and 4 AM along and north of Highway 50, and snow chances look to begin along the Palmer generally anytime after midnight as well. Precipitation may start as rain or a mix for the lower elevations of the Highway 50 corridor, but with the front coming through in the coldest hours, a quick transition to snow is anticipated. All snow is expected for El Paso County, with blowing snow and degraded visibility possible through much of Sunday morning. This will be especially true for eastern El Paso, where gusts will be higher. Light but wind driven snow chances march south through the morning hours, with most of our plains seeing chances between 6 AM and noon. Winds begin to decrease through the afternoon hours, and snowfall looks to dissipate through the evening hours.

Totals with this system are fairly low given how long we have waited for decent moisture, but we will take what we can get at this point of course. Highest totals are will be over the San Juans, but the central mountains and Sangres should both see totals around 4 to 8 inches as well. Lesser amounts for other mountain zones are expected, with 2 to 3 inches likely over the Palmer Divide. Trace amounts to possibly 2 or so inches look to be the most likely outcomes on our plains, with those 2 inch amounts hugging closer to the terrain. Overall, our main travel impacts will more likely be due to blowing snow than to road conditions given the lower totals and the warmer temperatures.

Monday Onwards..

Provided the front does not slow down some more, we are in cool and dry northerly flow behind it by Monday, with slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Highs look to climb into the 40s for much of the plains, with 30s for the San Luis Valley. A warming trend begins on Tuesday, with dry conditions and weaker winds persisting through at least Wednesday as a broad area of high pressure sits to our west and leaves us in northwest flow. Models continue to hint that this pattern may stay in place through late next week before westerly or southwesterly flow and more chances for precipitation possibly return, at least for the high country.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 242 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, with a mix of mid and high level cloudiness. Steady strong SW flow aloft will continue, while at the surface gusty S winds to 20-25 kts at times will occur at KALS and KCOS between 20z to around 07z tonight. Moderate snow will redevelop along the Continental Divide tonight around 05z and continue through the end of the forecast period, with obscurations probable over mt passes.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ068.


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