textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler but continued dry today, with critical fire weather conditions for the San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River Valley.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions on Thursday with portions of the forecast area possibly seeing critical fire weather conditions again on Friday.

- A higher end fire weather event possible on Saturday with widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions likely.

- Cooler Sunday with light snow possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 104 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A traditional cold air damming event has unfolded across I-25 corridor and eastern plains with much cooler temperatures in place compared to recent model guidance. With the clouds and light upslope flow continuing for the majority of the day, the high temperatures in the forecast were lowered by 5-7 F. Otherwise, the Red Flag Warning seems to be verifying for Buena Vista and the San Luis Valley so the warning was continued. The only other weather of note is the breezy conditions with gusts up to 45 mph in the mountains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 104 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

On Thursday, a surface cyclone will move across the Northern Plains with lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado. Aloft, west-northwest winds will strengthen as slight subsident flow will be in place due to being under the right exit region of an upper level jet streak over the Northern Rockies. Downslope winds will create very dry conditions across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains with relative humidity dropping to 9-15%. The winds will also be an issue with gusts up to 60 mph in the mountains and up to 40 mph across the plains and mountain valleys. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the I-25 corridor, portions of the eastern plains, and the San Luis Valley. The changes made were to add fire weather zone 226 (northern El Paso County) into the warning and to extend the warning time for all locations to 11 AM to 9 PM. Relative humidity may not fully reach criteria in zone 226 but that area will be one of the windier spots so it felt like issuing a warning was the best decision. The far southeast Colorado fire zones do not have any fire weather highlights because winds will be weakest there. It is possible a Red Flag Warning will need to be issued there if there is better confidence in stronger winds than currently forecast.

On Friday, a cold front will move across the eastern plains of Colorado. There will be no impacts from this front other than reducing winds and temperatures later in the day which may help reduce the fire danger. With that being said, there are growing concerns the I-25 corridor and mountain valleys will have critical fire weather conditions again. Conditions will be similar to Thursday with relative humidity down to 8-14% with gusts up to 40 mph.

An upper level trough will move from the Pacific Northwest to southern Wyoming on Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of this trough, the upper level winds and low level subsidence will increase in Colorado. This, unfortunately, may lead to a higher end fire danger event with critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions. Relative humidity will decrease to 6-13% across the lower elevations and mountain valleys. Winds will be an issue with gusts up to 50-55 mph in the lower elevations and mountain valleys with gusts up to 75 mph possible in the mountains. The far southeastern plains may avoid the strongest winds with gusts up to 40 mph. A Red Flag Warning will likely be needed for Saturday with possible strong wording.

A strong trough aloft will move through the forecast area on Sunday with a strong surface cold front. Temperatures in the afternoon may be 30-40 F cooler on Sunday compared to Saturday. This trough will bring light snow to the mountains and a couple bands of snow may make it across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains.

Next work week, an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the western US. Much above normal temperatures will begin on Tuesday and record highs are possible Wednesday through Friday. It is possible the first 90 F temperature of the year occurs across the southeastern plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with winds the primary concern. Breezy winds this evening will decouple and become light overnight with diurnally driven directions at all three terminals. Winds will increase again on Thursday from the northwest with gusts up to 30 kts in the afternoon. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-224. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ222- 224-226>233.