textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front arrives tonight, with much cooler weather expected on Tue, especially across the plains.

- Showers and thunderstorms stay mainly over the mountains/interior valleys on Tuesday, then increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage area-wide from Wednesday into Friday, with the potential for flash flooding on area burn scars.

- Gradual drying trend then develops over the weekend into early next week.

- Temperatures after tomorrow will stay within a few degrees of seasonal averages for the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rather sparse coverage of showers/storms so far this afternoon, though activity was building over the ern San Luis Valley and srn Sangres as of 130 pm, with some stronger storms on the plains in Baca County as well. CAMs suggest storm coverage increases as we go through the afternoon, and a stronger storm or two looks possible over the far southeast, where CAPE is over 1000 J/KG. Main storm threat will be gusty winds, though instability may be high enough for at least a low end severe hail threat near the KS border. Convection fades away across much of the area late this evening and overnight, though a few storms may linger into Tue morning, especially back over the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. Cold front races quickly through the plains after midnight, with boundary near the NM border shortly after sunrise. Could see some gusty north winds of 30-40 mph behind the front, especially over El Paso County.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Much cooler Tue behind the front, especially across the plains where highs will run some 15-20 degf lower than Mon. Less dramatic cooling over the mountains, were temps will drift downward only a few degrees. Air mass on the plains will initially be too cool/stable for much if any convection during the daytime hours Tue, while over the mountains, showers and storms will become widespread, especially along the Continental Divide where mid-level moisture will continue to increase. Some weakening convection may reach the I-25 Corridor Tue night as storms drift east off the higher terrain, and portions of the plains may see t-storms overnight, as nocturnal convection along the old frontal boundary over nern NM moves northward in response to strengthening low level jet.

Still appears strong monsoonal moisture tap develops Wed-Fri, with trough along the West Coast and upper high over the southeastern U.S. Showers/thunderstorms will be widespread across the area each afternoon/evening through the period, with the heaviest rainfall over the Continental Divide (especially swrn mts), while the far eastern plains will see lighter amounts/lower pops. Burn scar flash flood will increase Wed-Fri, though heaviest rainfall may stay west of the Aspen Acres scar if model QPF forecasts are correct. May start to see some drying over the wrn half of the area Sat, with drier air spreading eastward Sun/Mon, though model spread becomes rather wide over the weekend into next week, and at least a few models/ensemble members keep daily precip going into early next week. Temps will drift back back upward a few degf Wed-Fri, before potential cold front drops readings back below average for Sat/Sun.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 541 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Predominately VFR conditions are expected at all the TAF sites over the next 24 hrs. A stray shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out (less than 20% chance) through 01Z this evening. Skies are then expected to clear out some this evening into tonight. A cold front will move through KCOS and KPUB 08z-11z, with winds shifting to the north and gusting around 25-35 kts at both sites through the morning on Tuesday. Winds then diminish and shift back to the southeast by the afternoon hours, sustained around 10-14 kt. Additional convection cannot be ruled out after 22Z Tuesday, but confidence is too low for a TAF inclusion at this time.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.