textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture within increasing southwest flow will bring rain, heavy at times, to area along and west of the Continental Divide through the day Monday.

- Widespread precipitation spreads across all of south central and southeast Colorado Monday night through at least Thursday, with periods of heavy rain and possible flooding.

- Warmer and Drier weather for next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest southwest flow aloft across the region, with upper level ridging building across eastern Colorado ahead of broad upper trough digging across the West Coast at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating Hurricane Polo spinning off the southern California Baja, with abundant subtropical moisture spreading across Old Mexico into the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies at this time. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains early this afternoon, with readings mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain, as high level clouds increase from west to east this afternoon.

Mid and high level clouds will continue to increase overnight, as models indicate PWATS increasing to 150 to 200 percent of normal through the day tomorrow. While we can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm across the Continental Divide through the late afternoon/early evening, we will see increasing coverage and intensity of showers along and west of the Continental Divide through the day Monday, with increasing uvv ahead of short wave energy ejecting out ahead of the advancing West Coast trough. This, along with increasing orographic southwest flow, will bring rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall to the eastern San Juan mountains, where a Flood Watch remains in place from Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

Further east, scattered showers and thunderstorms spread east across the higher terrain through the plains through the day Monday, with the increased available moisture bringing the threat of locally heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. The scattered coverage of said storms precludes the issuance of expansion of flood watches at this time. However, if storms do form or move across area burn scars, or areas across the plains that have seen recent bouts of rain, flash flooding will be possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

While latest models continue to point to significant precipitation across Rockies through the middle of the week, the details on location of the heaviest precipitation continue to fluctuate, as models differ on the location of reminents of subtropical system Polo as it interacts with the broad West Coast trough translating across the southern Great Basin Monday night and Tuesday. At any rate, showers continue to spread east across the plains Monday night through Tuesday morning, as precipitation picks up in intensity again across the Continental Divide with increasing difluence aloft with a developing strong upper low across the Desert Southwest.

The latest EC solution remains the strongest and furthest north with said upper low, which spreads widespread precipitation across south central and southeast Colorado Tuesday night through Wednesday night, as the system tracks across Northern New Mexico into the Oklahoma Panhandle, with precipitation winding down from west to east through the day Thursday, as drier works into the region from the north. The latest Canadian solution is the furthest south with the system and driest, though does bring the potential for heavy rainfall across the southern tier zones, while the GFS solution is now in between the other solutions, and is much wetter across southern Colorado than its previous solutions. The latest NBM and WPC guidance has leaned wetter across southern Colorado and does have 1 to 3 inches of QPF across south central and southeast Colorado from Monday through Thursday, with greatest amounts across the higher terrain and southeast plains along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor. With that said, and if the current forecast remains true, later shifts will likely need to spread Flood Watches across much of southern Colorado through this period, however, would like to see better model consistency before issuing more highlights at this time. With the Pacific origin of this system, snow levels will remain rather high, generally aoa 12,000 feet through out the period, with the potential for 2 to 6 inches of snow across the highest peaks of the southern mountains. High temperatures to remain well below seasonal levels as well through Thursday.

By Friday and into the weekend, warm and drier air within more westerly flow works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to a slow warming and drying trend, as there will be enough residual moisture to support more isolated afternoon convection.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 533 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

KALS: Southwest winds lighten overnight, turning more southerly before picking back up again Monday morning. Cloud cover will increase, with cigs around high-MVFR setting in as rain showers spread across the region, lasting through the end of this forecast period.

KCOS and KPUB: Winds remain around 10 knots overnight, with consistent mid-level clouds. Monday morning, rain chances pick up at KCOS, with lower confidence near KPUB. After 18Z or so, gusty SE winds pick up at both terminals, gusting 20-25 knots, with rain showers spreading across the region after 20-22Z, though confidence in coverage is a bit lower at KPUB. Clouds will sink towards MVFR as rain moves across the region into Monday evening.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Monday morning through late Tuesday night for COZ067-068.