textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog this morning eastern plains, otherwise continued above normal temperatures for most with cooler temperatures across portions of the southeast plains today.

- Warm and increasingly windy this week, with a chance for strong winds and critical fire weather conditions Wednesday.

- Snow showers possibly returning to the central mountains mid/late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Areas of fog and low clouds have spread up the Arkansas River valley in area of shallow upslope flow. Visibility has dropped to around 1/4 mile at times, though seems to fluctuate up to 1 mile keeping dense fog seemingly more patchy in nature. Meanwhile, northerly winds off the Palmer have already started to erode the low clouds and fog off the higher terrain, keeping most of the fog along a narrow ribbon along the Fountain Creek. Expect conditions to gradually improve through the morning as light surface winds gradually shift out of a westerly direction. Fog will persist the longest along the lower Arkansas River valley but should be largely done by 11 AM.

Otherwise, the main forecast challenge will be how much temperatures warm today across the plains. High res models redevelop light east to southeasterly winds along and north of the Arkansas River Valley and where winds remain light, and mixing limited, it's conceivable that temperatures will not get out of the 40s. However along and west of I-25 and along the northern slopes of the Raton Mesa, westerly or southerly winds into the deepening lee side trough will allow temperatures to pop back up into the 60s. Placing this gradient in the correct location always poses challenges this time of year. Leaned more heavily on a NamNest HRRR blend for now. Otherwise temperatures across the mountains and valleys should be similar to a degree or two cooler given less wind and mixing. But this is still well above seasonal normals with highs ranging from the 40s to mid 50s for the valleys and 30s and 40s for the mountains.

We shouldn't see a repeat of fog development across the plains tonight as winds shift to a more downslope westerly component. High clouds begin to increase out west late with the approach of the next upper trough. This system is dry however, and with a period of clearing in the evening and early overnight hours, think there is a chance some of our cold pool valleys will drop into the teens and single digits. Leaned towards the colder side of guidance for those areas. Otherwise, didn't stray too far from the national model blends. -KT

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Western U.S. upper ridge flattens Mon-Wed, with increasing westerly flow across Colorado. Surface winds initially won't be particularly strong Mon/Tue as weak wave moving through the srn Rockies disrupts the mid-level flow, then stronger winds arrive Wed into early Thu, as upper wave moves through the nrn Rockies and 150 kt jet noses into the state. Brief window for a mountain wave early Wed as low/mid level flow increases ahead of upper jets arrival, though models/ensembles aren't quite as aggressive with wave development and associated winds versus 24 hrs ago. Brute force windy with deep mixing Wed afternoon, then continued strong winds Wed night/early Thu as bora cold front whips southward through the region. Highest fire danger of the week likely Wed afternoon/evening, especially srn I-25 corridor where humidity drops off below 15 percent. Given the forecast synoptic weather pattern significantly favors high winds, suspect blended guidance (NBM) isn't nearly windy enough for Wed, and boosted forecast wind speeds toward the top end of the guidance envelope. Central mountains will see snow showers Wed afternoon/evening as wave passes to the north, with an inch or two over the higher peaks north of Cottonwood Pass. Temperatures will continue well above average Mon-Wed (warmest Wed), then less wind but cooler on Thu as surface high pressure drifts eastward through the plains.

Winds crank up again Fri/Sat as strong jet sags back southward into the central Rockies, bringing another round of warm temps and increased high danger to the region, while snow showers spread back into the central mountains Sat as next upper wave approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions will return to VFR at KCOS first and KPUB through by mid morning as northerly winds help drain low clouds and fog south and eastward. Clearing will occur near the beginning of the TAF valid period at KCOS, and by 16z at KPUB. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions at all three terminals this afternoon through tonight. Winds will be light through the period, swinging back around from the east to southeast in the afternoon for KCOS and KPUB before returning to a north to northwesterly drainage wind overnight. KALS will remain light and variable under mostly clear skies. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.