textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across the southeast plains.

- Scattered afternoon showers and storms, especially over and near the higher terrain, continue Friday and Saturday.

- Warming trend for Sunday with more moisture possibly moving into the region early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has increasing westerly flow aloft across the Rockies, as a trough is translating across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies at this time. Morning stratus across the plains has broken up, with regional satellite imagery indicating CU developing across the higher terrain, as well as across the Raton Mesa and into the southeast plains. Regional radars are indicating a some weak echoes across higher terrain, especially across the northern mtns, with a few storms firing across the southern I-25 Corridor as of 1 pm.

This afternoon and evening...SPC meso analysis has SB CAPE of 500- 1000 j/kg across the I-25 Corridor, increasing to over 2000 j/kg across the far southeast plains, where dew points are in the mid to upper 50s at this time. SPC Meso analysis also has the strongest deep layer shear of 40-50kts across Northern and Central Colorado, with 20-30kts of shear across Southern Colorado at this time.

Latest model data continues to support deep layer shear increasing across southern Colorado through the late afternoon and early evening, with cams continuing to indicate super cell development and helicity swaths across the southeast plains through the late afternoon, with the potential for storms to line out as they move into western Kansas into the early evening. With that said, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238 is in effect for Las Animas, Baca, Otero, Bent and Prowers counties through 03Z. Will need to watch for storm development across the Palmer Dvd into northern portions of the southeast Plains, with the stronger shear, but lesser progged instability, as a few cams do indicate some development along and north of the Palmer.

Upper trough continues to translate across the Rockies tonight, with a secondary round of showers and storms pushing south across the plains with the systems passing cold front. Best coverage of storms progged to remain across northeast Colorado into northern portions of the southeast plains overnight, with breezy northerly winds expected across all of southeast Colorado behind the front. Upslope develops across the plains through the day on Friday, with yet another weak embedded wave within the moderate westerly flow aloft, helping to develop scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain into the afternoon. Temperatures to remain at to below seasonal levels, with highs in the 60s to low 70s across the plains tomorrow, with 40s and 50s across the higher terrain and mainly 60s across the high mtn valleys.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Modest west to northwest flow remains progged across the region on Saturday as upper level ridging builds across the region Sunday into Monday. Latest models indicate another weak disturbance across the area on Saturday, keeping the chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms across the area, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. Warming and drying trend for Sunday, with enough moisture in place to support isolated to scattered afternoon mtn showers.

By Monday...models are indicating the potential for increasing moisture within southwest flow aloft, as another upper trough develops and translates across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West through early next week. This will bring increasing chances of showers and storms to the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 524 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected over all of the forecast sites throughout the majority of the forecast period. By late afternoon tomorrow evening precipitation chances increase over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. The ceilings are not low enough to lower CIGS, but the presence of steady showers might lower visibility enough to cause flight restrictions. I do not have high enough confidence in it right now, but future forecasts will have updates. A cold front will pass over KCOS and KPUB during the early morning hours tomorrow, which will aid in creating overcast conditions. Gusty NW winds will form over KALS later tomorrow afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.