textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger is expected to continue across much of the plains today, especially for areas south of Highway 50.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue north of Highway 50. Some storms may be strong to severe, especially over the Palmer Divide.

- A cold front comes through tonight, bringing cooler temperatures for much of the area tomorrow. All areas will be cooler with increasing chances for precipitation for Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Today and Tonight..

Temperatures are still in the 50s and 60s across the plains with mostly clear sky conditions. The surface front has pushed back across our northern tier of counties and into the Lower Arkansas River Valley as of midnight. Southwest flow aloft remains in place over the region though as we sit on the eastern periphery of a trough that is digging into the Rockies. Southwest flow is expected to "win" through much of the day today on our plains for all areas south of Highway 50. Areas south of Highway 50 can expect critical fire weather conditions, while areas north can expect chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong to severe, especially over the Palmer Divide, and possibly over Lake, Chaffee, Teller and Fremont counties as well, where wind shear will be maximized. Damaging winds will be the most likely threat with convection today, though 1 inch hail may also be possible in one or two stronger storms on the Palmer Divide or across far eastern El Paso County. Lightning starts may be possible in the high country, as convection will very high based and wetting rains are unlikely. Areas south of Highway 50 can expect southwest winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, and relative humidity values in the low teens and single digits. Please use extreme caution and take care not to start a wildfire today! Daytime highs will be very dependent on where the front ends up parking for the day, but generally expect mid 80s to low 90s along and south of Highway 50, and 60s to 70s north of Highway 50. After sunset the cold front manages to advance across the plains again, helping moisture recoveries across the region. Isolated and light showers spread south across the I-25 corridor behind the frontal boundary, though measurable rainfall will be minimal south of Highway 50. Overnight lows will be several degrees cooler than last night, with most of the plains and mountain valleys cooling into the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Monday..

A low moves into the Utah/Colorado border region by Monday morning, and models bring the trough axis and more favorable jet placement for strong winds overhead across our southern mountains and the San Luis Valley throughout Monday morning and early afternoon. For now, winds look to remain sub-warning levels, though the San Luis Valley may get close. 50 mph winds are likely across the Valley, which will raise concerns for blowing dust on Monday afternoon. Blowing snow will also be a concern for the San Juans and the central mountains throughout Monday. Though accumulations look to be minimal in both ranges, generally less than 4 inches, blowing snow and poor travel conditions from degraded visibilities may be possible, especially over mountain passes. A quick 2 to 3 inches will be possible on top of Pikes Peak as well, with a dusting down to 8000 feet or so across the rest of Teller County. Winds weaken by Monday evening, and snow comes to an end overnight Monday night. On the plains Monday, southwest flow once again shoves the front back northwards through the heat of the day. For now, southwest flow looks to "win" across only our southern tier. For this reason, a Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Monday just for Las Animas and Baca Counties. Daytime highs will once again depend on where the southwest flow wins. Baca, Las Animas, Bent, and Prowers counties are likely to see highs back into the 80s, with all other locations in the 50s and 60s for highs. Showers and thunderstorms continue for areas along and north of Highway 50 on Monday, and though there is a ton of shear, we look to be too cool and stable to warrant concerns for severe development.

Tuesday Onwards..

The cold air *finally* wins on Tuesday on the plains, though for now it looks like the San Luis Valley will still be warm and windy on Tuesday. They will likely be the warmest spot on the map if this forecast remains on track, with highs back into the 70s. The plains are expected to be in the 50s and 60s on Tuesday, with continued precip chances over the Pikes Peak region throughout the daytime hours. Precip chance spread southwards across the plains through the evening and overnight hours, with best chances for widespread rainfall through early Wednesday morning. Models keep us in messy/active flow with shortwave embedded in the larger troughing pattern both Tuesday and Wednesday. This looks to keep us cool and active both days, with little to no fire weather concerns. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the second half of the work week and into next weekend as well, especially over and near the higher terrain. Temperatures look to warm back into the near normal range for Thursday and Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures possible for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain light overnight, around and less than 10 mph. During late morning to early afternoon tomorrow, diurnal mixing will develop and gusty winds are expected during the afternoon hours. Then by late afternoon to early evening, a cold front will push southward, bring a quick northerly shift in wind direction and magnitude. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will give way to increasing clouds tomorrow, especially post FROPA. For KCOS, there remains a chance for showers to thunderstorms to impact the terminal site tomorrow afternoon, but confidence remains very low, less than 20%, in development at this time.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain light overnight, around and less than 10 mph. During late morning to early afternoon tomorrow, diurnal mixing will develop and gusty winds are expected during the afternoon hours. Winds will than again lessen heading into the evening hours. Otherwise, periods of mid to high level clouds with dry conditions are expected.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-225-228>237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ230-233-237.