textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Conditions continue at least through the rest of work week, especially over and near the higher terrain.

- Isolated high based showers/storms over and near the higher terrain through the early evening, producing virga and gusty erratic winds but little to no beneficial rainfall.

- Severe thunderstorms possible far southeast plains through the early evening and again on Wednesday.

- Temperatures warm into the early Holiday Weekend, with potential for a wetter pattern for the late weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 543 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Updated to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Prowers and Baca Counties as the threat has shifted east into Kansas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, as a broad upper trough is digging across the Intermountain West and Great Basin at this time. Water vapor imagery and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor data indicates a slight increase in available moisture, with current observations indicating dew pts in the 20s and 30s over and near the higher terrain, with dew pts in 40s and 50s across the far southeast plains at this time.

The increased available moisture poses two risks through the evening, with the first being high based showers and storms, developing over the the higher terrain, and spreading northeast across the adjacent plains. Model data supports these high based showers/storms (inverted V profiles) likely producing virga and gusty and erratic winds of 45 to 55 mph, with little to no wetting rains. These high based storms and gusty winds will likely affect the current ongoing wildfires through the evening, hampering any ongoing fire suppression. Secondly, the increased low level moisture across the plains, combined with ample shear of 35-45kts in place, will support the potential for strong to severe storms, producing damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. Latest high res models support the best chances of severe storms across eastern Las Animas, Bent, Baca and Prowers counties through the early evening.

Week lee troughing persists across the plains overnight, promoting weak downslope flow over and near the higher terrain, leading to generally poor RH recovery in the 30-40 percent range for area wildfires, with clearing skies overnight, save for areas of smoke likely continuing across portions of the eastern mtns and I-25 Corridor.

Latest model data continues to indicate a slight increase of southwest flow aloft through the day Wednesday, with lee trough/dryline setting up across the far southeast plains through the afternoon. This will allow for the potential for strong to severe storms across the far southeast plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 Outlook now indicates a slight risk, with a marginal risk back to east of La Junta. Further west, critical fire weather conditions are expected, with the current Red Flag Warning for Wednesday still looking good.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Latest model data continues to indicate another increase in west to southwest flow on Thursday, as more short wave energy translates across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. This bump in westerly flow will lead to less available moisture and more Critical to possibly Extreme Fire Weather Conditions expected on Thursday, with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in tact. The bump in westerly flow will also bump up temperatures, with 90s to the lower 100s expected across the plains, and 60s, 70s and 80s expected across the higher terrain, along with little if any chances of precipitation areawide.

Dry westerly flow continues but slowly diminishes Friday and Saturday, supporting continued dry weather and hot temperatures, with Critical Fire Weather conditions becoming more spotty further into the July 4th Holiday Weekend. Later shifts may still need to issue Fire Weather Highlights on Friday and Saturday, as afternoon RH levels will remain extremely low through Saturday. Latest model data also supports upper level ridging building across the Desert Southwest and into the Rockies for the early to middle part of next week, leading to a slow moistening of the atmosphere and temperatures trending to more seasonal levels. The weaker flow aloft will also lead to less expected critical fire weather conditions areawide. Time will tell.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty winds at the start of this TAF period are expected to lessen heading into the evening hours as diurnal mixing stops. Heading into tomorrow, gusty southwesterly winds again prevail, with the strongest winds during the afternoon hours, when mixing will be well in place. In addition, showers and storms currently ongoing will dissipate by mid evening. These showers and storms will still pose a threat for gusty outflow winds through the evening. Otherwise, skies will clear heading into overnight, with clouds returning tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Critical Fire Weather conditions remain likely for parts of the district through Friday with Red Flag Warnings in place through 10 pm tonight and starting again at 10 am through 10 pm Wednesday. A tad more available moisture today has allowed for high based showers and storms to develop over and near the higher terrain, leading to virga and gusty and erratic winds possible near area fires. Warmer and drier conditions, with a slight increase in westerly flow, will keep critical and spotty extreme fire weather conditions across the district on Thursday and Friday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in tact for Thursday, with additional fire weather highlights likely needed for Friday.

Weaker winds on Saturday may produce more spotty critical fire weather conditions, with the potential for more moisture with weak west to southwest flow aloft leading to more chances of wetting rains from daily showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>233. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220>230-233. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ220>230.