textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue this evening over the Continental Divide. Flash flooding possible over burn scar areas.

- Warmer and drier through Monday, though some showers will still be possible over our western mountains.

- Monday now looks like a transition day with thunderstorms increasing out west, but remaining hot and dry out east.

- Uptick in thunderstorms possible for most areas by mid week as some degree of monsoon moisture returns and cold frontal intrusions across the southeast plains bring promise of low level moisture return.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A broad upper high remains centered over our region today, keeping the majority of monsoon moisture over western Colorado and into the Four Corners Region. Through the rest of this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Continental Divide, drifting south and west into the interior valleys later on in the day. Additionally, a few more isolated showers and storms will be possible over the Raton Mesa, as well as the southern Sangre de Cristos. Storms will be capable of producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, which poses flash flooding risks for burn scars, ongoing fires, and other at risk areas. Meanwhile, weak but persistent NE steering flow aloft will keep the eastern plains dry once again. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with high-80s to mid-90s over the plains, and high 70s-80s over the higher terrain.

Starting on Saturday, the center of the high will shift north and slightly east, pushing the monsoon plume a bit further westward. This will decrease our precip chances throughout the day, mainly confining scattered afternoon storms to the San Juans, and a few isolated showers to the southern Sangres. Drier conditions will also coincide with slightly warmer temperatures, with a few locations out east getting close to the 100-degree mark.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Drier, warmer conditions will continue again on Sunday, with only a few isolated afternoon showers/storms expected over our westernmost mountains. High temperatures will continue to increase under the dry conditions, with the far eastern plains finally reaching triple- digits in the afternoon. Very similar conditions are now expected on Monday as well, though storm coverage will be slightly better over the Continental Divide as the high begins to shift once again and lets some moisture back into our area.

Moving towards mid-week, the high will shift as an upper low moves along the Canadian border far to our NE. Sometime early on Tuesday, a cold front will make its way south across the plains as the monsoon plume aloft shifts back to the east. The influx of cooler, more moist air into our region will allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms over the entire CWA through the rest of the work week. PWATs look to both increase above normal and spread into the plains as well, increasing chances for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, both over burn scar and urban areas. Meanwhile, temperatures will decrease just a bit, leveling out right around seasonal levels.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain mostly light, around and less than 10 knots, with only occasional gusts to around 20 knots possible this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of mid to high level clouds is anticipated through this TAF period.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots. With that said though, showers and thunderstorms are expected to push off of the surrounding higher terrain and across the San Luis Valley this afternoon. These showers and storms are likely to bring gusty outflow winds, with sudden changes in wind speeds and direction. Any precipitation is expected to dissipate heading into the evening hours. Beyond all of that, pockets of mid to high level clouds will be in place.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.