textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms look to develop this afternoon and track south-southeast along the Central to Eastern Mountains, with flash flooding possible on the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Drier and hotter for the weekend into Monday, with temperatures on the Plains near or in excess of 100 degrees.

- Thunderstorms return to the area Tuesday through Friday next week, with burn scar flash flooding possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Currently...radar early this morning shows very isolated showers and thunderstorms south of Highway 50 across the Plains. This activity will continue to track eastward through 4 AM, dissipating as they do so. The main threats will be brief rainfall and one or two lightning strikes. Meanwhile, a cold front is dropping south into the Palmer Divide, with winds switching northerly behind the boundary. This frontal boundary will track southward through daybreak. Overall, temperatures will remain mild, with 60s across the Plains and 50s over the San Luis Valley.

Today and tonight...an upper high currently over the Four Corners region will slowly retorgrades west by this afternoon, with north-northwesterly flow by the afternoon. At the surface, flow will shift easterly through the morning hours and persist into the afternoon and evening. This will help keep moisture across the Plains with dewpoints in the upper 50s to possibly lower 60s. PWAT values remain high, in excess of an inch across the Plains. Shear increases as well, with 0-6km shear near 30 knots this afternoon, and SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg along the Eastern Mountains into the adjacent plains. Models in very good agreement with showers and thunderstorms developing by early afternoon from the Central Mountains, southeast across the Eastern Mountains and into the Raton Mesa. The steering flow aloft will keep cells generally along this path, with training echoes into the evening. Thunderstorms will be efficient rain producers and flash flooding, especially on burn scars, will be possible. Lightning, hail to near half an inch and wind gusts near 50 mph may accompany stronger cells. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Aspen Acres burn scar, and wast extended through 11 PM tonight. The main concern are the multiple waves of thunderstorms, with the NAMnest and HRRR guidance keeping cells training through 9-10 PM over Aspen Acres. If you live in or near the burn scar, be prepared for flash flood conditions.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue southeast into New Mexico overnight, clearing to the south by Saturday morning. Overall, given the steering flow, areas east of I-25 may not receive much if any precipitation today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today behind the frontal boundary, with upper 80s to lower 90s across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley sees upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The extended forecast period looks on track, with drier conditions over the weekend into Monday, with very hot temperatures. An upper trough passing to the north will bring more thunderstorm chances to southern Colorado for mid week.

Saturday into Monday...the upper level high will retrograde southwest into Arizona on Saturday, before an upper trough in the Pacific Northwest stretches a ridge from Arizona, northeast into the Northern Plains for Sunday into Monday.

One last embedded upper wave in northerly flow aloft will transit across Colorado on Saturday, while drier air moves in from the west. Shower and thunderstorm coverage looks minimal on Saturday, mainly confined to the San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges during the afternoon and evening hours. Current CAM guidance keeps a low end risk of thunderstorms across the Aspen Acres burn scar Saturday afternoon, but the bulk of the activity looks to remain south. Any cells that do develop on or near the burn scar could produce flash flooding, but confidence is low in this occuring at this time. Showers and thunderstorms will quickly drop south into New Mexico by the evening, with dry conditions overnight. Overall, temperatures on Saturday look warm, with 80s and lower 90s across the lower elevations.

By Sunday and Monday, the upper ridge will stretch across Colorado ahead of an upper trough across the Pacific Northwest. Drier air spreads across Colorado, and temperatures will warm across the region. Kept the forecast mainly dry Sunday into Monday, with just isolated activity over the higher terrain on Monday afternoon evening. Temperatures will be the biggest issue, with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s Sunday, and the warmest day forecast on Monday. At this time, heat highlights may be needed for parts of the area. Overnight lows will also remain mild with 60s and 70s.

Tuesday through Friday...the Pacific Northwest upper trough will slowly move into the Northern Plains, flattening the upper ridge across the Desert Southwest, and producing persistent westerly flow aloft across Colorado. A strong cold front arrives Tuesday morning, with increasing moisture and easterly upslope flow. PWAT values increase significantly to in excess of 1 inch on Tuesday, and easterly upslope flow will lead to thunderstorm development along the Eastern Mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Flash flood potential for area burn scars looks to increase significantly on Tuesday. Very similar conditions persist on Wednesday, with another round of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall, especially across the Eastern Mountains.

By Thursday and Friday, the upper trough tracks into the Great Lakes, and high pressure begins to rebuild across the western states. Multiple waves under the ridge will keep thunderstorm chances going through the end of the week for much of southern Colorado.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the rest of the evening and through at least tomorrow morning, before potential storms at COS and PUB bring chances of MVFR conditions in moderate to heavy rainfall. Frontal boundary to bring breezy northerly winds at COS and PUB overnight. Winds become light upslope at COS and PUB through the morning, with chances of thunderstorms producing heavy rain, gusty winds and potential for hail at the terminals through the afternoon and early evening.

Storms will be possible around ALS through the late afternoon, however much lower confidence for them affecting the terminal.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086.