textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot today and tomorrow with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain, and far southeast plains.

- Front arrives by Tuesday with cooler weather for mid to late week. Increasing moisture will lead to more widespread thunderstorm coverage and elevated flash flood potential on burn scars.

- Slight warm up and less thunderstorm coverage for next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows generally quiet conditions across southern Colorado early this morning. A few lingering clouds continue across the area from earlier convection. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s and 60s for the lower elevations, and 40s across the Mountains. A few degrees more cooling is expected through daybreak.

Today and tonight...southern Colorado will be in broad southwesterly flow aloft due to an upper storm system across the Pacific Northwest and an upper ridge across the Central Plains. Embedded energy in the flow aloft will lead to another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of the warning area. Initial development looks to occur across the higher terrain by mid afternoon, then spread east into the Eastern Mountains and adjacent Plains by the evening. The main storm risks for today will be lightning, outflow wind gusts near 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall. While not anticipated, if a storm moves over a burn scar, flash flooding could occur. Further east across the far Eastern Plains, a couple of storms may fire off by late afternoon to early evening and quickly move east into Kansas overnight.

Temperatures today will rebound back into the mid 80s to mid 90s across the Plains, with mid 80s across the San Luis Valley. Overnight lows will fall mid 50s to mid 60s for much of the region tonight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

00z guidance is in much better agreement than the 18z guidance, with the GFS coming into line with the ECMWF and Canadian solutions for the extended period. The pattern looks to become active, with increasing showers and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

Monday through Tuesday...the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will eject eastward across Montana into the Northern Plains early this week. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain Monday afternoon, then spreading east into the Plains during the evening and overnight hours. Lightning, gusty outflow winds to 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall will all be possible. A couple of storms that fire off during the late afternoon to early evening near the Kansas border could become strong, with half inch hail and winds near 50 mph. SPC did pull the marginal risk east into Kansas and out of our southeast Colorado Plains. Afternoon high temperatures will remain hot, with mid 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations. A cold front arrives overnight Monday, which will bring cooler temperatures to the area by morning. Overnight lows by Tuesday morning will mainly be in the 50s across the Plains.

By Tuesday, low level flow turns southeasterly across the Plains and dewpoints rise back into the 50s, with near 60 degrees near the Kansas border. Meanwhile, the next upper low takes shape across the Pacific Northwest, with continued southwest flow overhead. An embedded vort max is forecast to lift northeast out of the Desert Southwest with a bit more shower and thunderstorm coverage across the Mountains. PWAT values begin to increase and so does the heavy rain threat for area burn scars. The main upper vort max lifts northeast Tuesday night, with thunderstorms forecast to develop across the Southeast Plains during the evening and clear into Kansas overnight. Temperatures on Tuesday look nice, with mostly 70s across the region.

Wednesday through Friday...models have come into agreement with a slow moving upper low in the Pacific Northwest and building high pressure over the southeast states for mid to late week. This will be deep southerly flow across Colorado, with multiple embedded waves lifting north out of the Desert Southwest. PWAT values continue to increase and dewpoints remain elevated in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Daily widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the whole area. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding on area burn scars will become elevated during this period and will need to be monitored. Temperatures during this period look to remain pleasant, with 70s to lower 80s forecast across the lower elevations.

Saturday into Sunday...the upper low tracks east across Montana into the Northern Plains by next weekend. This will shift the moisture plum east as upper ridging and drier air move across Colorado. Shower and thunderstorm activity looks to become more scattered in nature. Temperatures will also warm a few degrees over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 516 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near KALS this afternoon, after 21Z or so. Have included PROB30 for potential outflow winds and brief rainfall. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the southwest this forecast period, with mid-level clouds.

Winds and KCOS and KPUB will be breezy and out of the southeast this afternoon. Gusts may reach 20-25 knots. There is a lower chance for showers and storms to pass by the terminals this afternoon as well, though confidence in coverage is too low to include in this round of TAFs. Winds will then weaken overnight and into early Monday morning.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.