textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture will lead to daily showers and thunderstorms across the region. Best focus will be over our southern mountains and plains.

- Flash flooding will be a concern later this week, focused over areas that have received repeated rounds of heavy rain, as well as any burn scars.

- Slightly warmer and drier this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Upper ridge overhead will slowly begin shifting east, as an upper trough moves in from our west. Today will start out relatively dry, though increasing southwest winds aloft will be bringing in more moisture to the mountains this afternoon and evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will mainly be focused across the Continental Divide, with the greatest coverage across the San Juans. Elsewhere, the rest of the higher terrain and interior valleys will be seeing scattered activity, with the chance for a few isolated evening showers over the eastern plains. Storms aren't expected to be all that strong, with moderate to heavy rainfall being the main impact concern. Will need to keep an eye over the burn scars for flash flooding potential. Meanwhile, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with the plains reaching into the high-70s to low-80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Looking at the rest of this week, southwest flow continues moving into our region, giving us a persistent tap of monsoon moisture until at least Thursday. PWATS remain well above normal across model solutions, leading to a persistent heavy rain chance across our southern mountains and plains. Best coverage will be Wednesday Night into Thursday, leading to heightened flash flooding potential, particularly over the burn scars as well as mountainous areas that have received a lot of rain throughout the week. As such, have issued a Flood Watch for the San Juans, where QPF has been heaviest in the last few days' worth of model runs. Temperatures will remain largely consistent through most of the week, with highs in the 70s to low-80s over the plains, and 60s to low-70s in the high valleys.

Drier, warmer conditions will set in across the region, starting on Friday and heading into this weekend. Flow aloft will turn more westerly, with downsloping cutting the chance for heavy rainfall, though enough moisture will remain int he area for some isolated afternoon convection each day. High temperatures will warm a few degrees, especially over the plains, climbing into the mid-80s by the start of next week. Looking at the broader synoptic pattern, latest models indicate a brief upper ridge lasting through the weekend, before an upper trough moves into our region sometime on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Upper low system over southern NV is drawing abundant moisture up across the Four Corners and into CO. Increased cloud cover as well as widespread shower and storm activity will the case across much of the forecast area over the next 48-72 hours. Activity will primarily be focused across the higher terrain and southern border today, initially affecting KALS.

KALS: VFR-MVFR conditions through late tonight, with VCSH, and PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts to 28 kts 20z-02z. Starting around 09z, MVFR conditions potentially degrading to IFR as low clouds and areas of fog develop.

KCOS: South winds gusting to around 25 kts this afternoon and early eve, with a PROB30 for-TSRA between 23z and 02z. Predominantly VFR conditions anticipated.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ068.