textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storm threat continues into Friday across southeast Colorado.

- Scattered showers and storms across the higher terrain through Friday.

- Drying out and warming up this weekend, leading to increasing coverage of critical fire conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 226 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has one embedded shortwave translating into the Northern High Plains, with another weak wave embedded within the modest westerly flow aloft translating across the eastern Great Basin at this time. The Northern High Plains passing waves associated cold front continues to push south and west across the southeast Plains at this time, with surface observations and GOES RGB satellite imagery indicating increasing low level moisture and stratus across the northeast plains, pushing across the Palmer Dvd and northern portions of the southeast Plains at this time. Regional radars have scattered showers and storms moving across across the higher terrain, with one stronger storm riding along the Palmer Dvd at this time.

For this afternoon into tonight, SPC meso analysis indicates the SBCAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg across southeast Colorado, with bulk shear of 35-45kts at this time. However, the best mid and low level lapse rates remain along the I-25 Corridor and along the Raton Mesa, with latest high res data indicating increasing SBCIN and MLCIN as surface cold front continues to push south and west across the plains. With that said, the latest hires data is indicating the best chances of strong to severe storms across the I-25 Corridor and especially along the Raton Mesa into eastern Las Animas and Baca counties through the evening hours. Otherwise will continue to see scattered showers and storms across the higher terrain spreading east through the evening, with the potential for showers continuing into the overnight hours, with westerly waa continuing aloft. Moist east to southeast upslope flow across the plains will keep and develop stratus across the southeast plains into early Thursday morning, with the potential for fog, especially across El Paso county with expected south to southeast low level flow overnight.

Latest model data continues to indicate increasing southwest flow across the region through the day on Friday, with another embedded wave expected to translate through the flow. However, latest data is a tad slower with mixing out available moisture, leading to another day of scattered showers and storms over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and evening, with continued chances of strong to severe storms across the plains once again. Models do indicate less bulk shear in the 20 to 30 kt range, however with ample low level moisture and CAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg, I wouldn't be surprised if SPC moved the marginal risk back across all of the southeast plains for tomorrow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 226 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Warm, dry and breezy conditions remain forecast for the weekend into early next week, with decreasing available moisture leading to increasing coverage of critical fire weather conditions across the region. We will let the next few shifts upgrade the current Fire Weather Watch across the western half of the district on Saturday, as well as any further fire weather products into early next week with expected updates on fuel conditions later tonight or by early Friday morning. At any rate, warm, with temperatures back above seasonal levels with highs above the century mark for portions of the southeast plains, dry and breezy to windy conditions will bring increasing coverage of critical fire weather conditions across the region into early next week.

Will also have to watch the evolution of the dryline across the plains, with some models indicating its presence across the far southeast plains for the early to middle portion of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KALS: Mostly VFR through 24 hours. West winds will pick up after midday, gusting 20-25 knots. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through the area later in the day, with gusty outflow and -TSRA along with clouds near MVFR towards the end of this forecast period.

KCOS: Showers and storms will linger in the area tonight, with a secondary round of convection possibly impacting the terminal between 06-09Z. Outflow could hit 35 knots as these showers pass close by. Otherwise, low MVFR clouds tonight with southeast, upslope winds. Another round of passing storms is anticipated tomorrow afternoon into early evening.

KPUB: Outflow winds and passing storms will impact the terminal for another few hours, with gusty winds and passing MVFR clouds. Winds will turn southeast later tonight, upsloping and bringing in more MVFR cigs. Southeast winds will pick up after midday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to move through the area prior to 00Z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ220-222>225.