textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and wetter today, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

- Drier over most of the mountains Wednesday, still cool and wet eastern mountains and plains with shower/storms continuing.

- Warmer and drier Thurs/Fri, still a low chance of thunderstorms across the eastern mountains and plains. Increased fire danger expected across the San Luis Valley, as winds ramp up.

- Still some hints of potentially cooler and wetter weather for the weekend into early next week, though confidence remains rather low in the timing and coverage of precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Weak upper low near the 4 corners early this morning, while significant s/w trough was generating widespread convection over e-se NM as it slowly rotates northward around the low. For today, 4 corners upper low weakens and lifts northward across CO, while s/w trough over ern NM slowly drifts northward as well. Overall, expect a continued upturn in convective coverage and strength across the region as low level moisture increases under slowly strengthening upward motion through the day, and several CAMs, especially the HRRR, show waves of showers and thunderstorms rotating northward into the evening. CAPE (500-1000 J/KG) should be sufficient for at least a few stronger storms, with pockets of heavy rain and small hail possible. Max temps a few degf cooler at many locations with increasing clouds and moisture.

Main question for tonight and Wednesday revolves around how strong will the ern NM upper wave/low be as it rotates northward into ern CO Wed morning. Several 26/00z deterministic models show a rather pronounced circulation developing, with enhanced low/mid level easterly winds forcing widespread precip on the plains Wed morning, then scattered thunderstorms along the eastern mountains/I-25 corridor Wed afternoon/evening as upslope and instability generate some mainly weak convection. NBM has begun to trend toward a cooler/wetter solution, though not as dramatic as some late arriving model guidance would suggest. For now, stuck fairly close to NBM on temps, but nudged up precip chances from I-25 eastward, as consensus seems to be forming that low/mid level upslope will deepen through the day. Farther west over/near the Continental Divide, drier and warmer conditions develop, with enough wind for some pockets of enhanced fire danger, especially in the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper low lifts into the nrn Rockies Thu/Fri, with dry and warmer conditions developing across srn CO. Again, enhanced fire danger will be possible both days in/near the San Luis Valley, as winds gust to around 25 mph in the afternoon. On the plains, still some model/ensemble disagreement on how far east low level moisture gets pushed, with at least a few solutions suggesting areas along/east the mountains may hold on to enough moisture/instability for convection both days, though confidence in any particular solution remains rather low. NBM guidance looks potentially a little overdone with pops given the amount of drying over the mountains, but only made some minor tweaks to pops at this point.

Omega block upper pattern persists over the U.S. during the weekend into next week, with a good deal of model/ensemble variability regarding timing and strength of upper energy lifting northward across the Rockies into Canada on the west side of the blocking ridge. Doesn't help that both GFS/ECMWF 26/00z deterministic models have lost some run-to run continuity regarding s/w timing and precipitation coverage over the weekend, as latest runs are much drier than 24 hrs ago. In general, pattern favors the eastern mountains and plains for shower/thunderstorm chances, as occasional surges of higher dewpoint air push westward toward the mountains while upward motion is provided by a series of hard-to-time short waves. Blended guidance looks as good as anything at this point, so will roll with the NBM pops for now.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 536 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Cigs will thicken and lower through the day with -SHRA/-TSRA moving into KALS after 16z and into KCOS and KPUB after 21z. Winds will increase from the south and gust up to 30 kts in the afternoon from a predominantly southerly direction, though wind directions could become erratic near thunderstorms through early evening. Cigs and vis could briefly lower into the MVFR category with -SHRA/-TSRA this afternoon. Cigs lower overnight as a southerly moisture tap continues. Steadier showers may persist into the evening hours before becoming more of a widespread stratus and perhaps -DZ at KCOS overnight. Kept cigs in the MVFR category overnight for all by KALS where IFR will be possible after 06z. It is possible that KCOS could drop into the IFR or even LIFR category given the southeast upslope flow overnight, but high res models have higher probabilities for MVFR for now. Later shifts may need to adjust as newer guidance comes in. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.