textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather concerns today due to very, strong winds and low humidities.

- Isolated to scattered high based showers and storms Tuesday afternoon, with potential for a strong/severe storm across the far SE plains.

- Warm, above average high temperatures expected Wednesday before a slight cooling Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Southwest flow is dominating across the region today. Moist air is being advected away away from the area, decreasing surface humidities. This drier air will increase its temperature through daytime heating creating a well mixed layer up to the LCL where the air can tap into 500-1000j/kg of CAPE. A fairly deep moist layer aloft with above normal PWAT values increases the likelihood of intense precipitation with these storms. The evaporative cooling of these storms is shown by DCAPE values currently sitting between 1000- 1800J/kg from the foothills towards the eastern plains. These storms will have the ability to create outflow winds of up to 60-80mph through the afternoon. SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern counties. Besides the winds, small hail is possible if updrafts are strong enough. Dry lightning is possible, increasing the threat for wildfire starts.

Elsewhere, the previously mentioned SE flow will be enhanced by terrain. Ridgetops and channeled valleys will experience the bulk of the winds through the day. Already dry air will become even drier to to foehn process along the foothills. Critical wind speeds up to 50- 60mph will be present with humidities in the low teens. Fire districts towards the east will have less threats from foehn winds but a higher threat of strong outflow/downburst winds from high- based storms and maybe even some dry lighting.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Drier air, slightly weaker winds, and less chances for storms are expect Wednesday through the remainder of the work week. Temperatures will peak Wednesday, possibly reaching 95-100F in the hottest spots. Colorado Springs is more likely to hit the low 90s. A weak cold front arrives to the area Thursday slightly decreasing temperatures into the weekend. Slight warming is expected Friday and Saturday before an even strong cooling trend takes effect Sunday into the weekend with unsettled weather and the increased possibility for wetting rain across the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Overall, dry with VFR conditions are expected across the terminals this period. A small window for light showers does appear likely for ALS at the start of the period, with any additional development anticipated to stay away from COS and PUB. There is a low chance that a stray shower could move across COS and PUB, but confidence is low. If this did occur, some slight enhancement to the winds and gusts would be observed. However, winds are already expected to be strong for all sites this afternoon, likely gusting from the south southwest up to 40 to 45 kt at times. Winds diminish later this evening, and will be lighter for the remainder of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Critical fire weather concerns are ongoing across the area today. Low relative humidities and strong winds SW will continue through tonight. Mountainous areas will experience terrain enhanced flow and the plains will experience strong winds from decaying high-based thunderstorms. Recoveries tonight will be in the 30-40% range with the farthest east districts possibly reaching 50-60%, especially where storms have dropped rain.

Wednesday shows a decreased potential for storms in the area. The SW flow is forecasted to continue, however it will be slightly weaker. Drier air will fill into the area from the NW with below normal PWAT values across the entire forecast area. Relative humidities will drop to critical levels in many places with many areas along the foothills experiencing single digit RH values during peak daytime heating. Forecast confidence on the strength of the winds is moderate however. High resolution model ensembles show ridgetops and channeled terrain experiencing strong winds, yet there is less confidence for Pueblo and Crowley of winds >25mph.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ222>224-229-230-234>236. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071. Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ088>089-093>099. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224- 228>231-235.