textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions likely to continue through Friday, especially over and near the higher terrain.

- Strong to Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the far southeast plains through the early evening and again on Thursday.

- Diminishing winds leading to less coverage of Critical Fire Weather conditions into the 4th of July Holiday Weekend.

- Hot temperatures through the early Holiday Weekend, with potential for a wetter and more seasonal temperature pattern into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 956 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Will allow the Red Flag Warning to come down at the 10 PM scheduled time. Quick update to grids to freshen up forecast over the first 24 hours. Another critical fire weather day is expected for tomorrow for the same area, but could last a little longer into the evening hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to indicate moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, with a broad upper trough in place the Intermountain West and Great Basin at this time. Water vapor imagery and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor data indicates much drier air in place across region, with current observations indicating dew pts in the single digits and teens across higher terrain, in the teens and 20s across the I-25 Corridor, and in the 30s, 40s and 50s across the southeast plains at this time. Satellite imagery is indicating some CU developing along the Raton Mesa, along with some Pyrocu being indicated across the Aspen Acres burn site as of 1230 MDT.

For the rest of today and tonight, southwest flow will continue to mix out moisture across the plains, with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms developing along the dry across eastern Bent, Baca, Prowers counties through the late afternoon, however latest shear profiles indicate the best shear further north. At any rate, main threat from storms remain damaging outflow winds. Further west, dry air and continued breezy southwest winds will keep critical fire weather conditions in place through the evening, with current Red Flag Warning remaining in place through 10 PM MDT. Southwest flow and lee troughing across the I-25 Corridor overnight will bring back some low level moisture across the plains within southerly return flow, however, this moisture does not look to get back to the higher terrain, with poor rh recovery again expected for ongoing wildfires.

Latest model data supports a slight increase in the southwest flow aloft across the region, leading to another day to expected Critical Fire Weather conditions, especially over and near the higher terrain, where a very dry airmass will remain in place. Current Red Flag Warnings remain in place from the I-25 Corridor westward from 10 AM Thursday to midnight Thursday night, with temperatures slightly warmer than today, and the very dry air supporting min rh levels in the single digits once again tomorrow. Further east, dry line mixes out to near the western Kansas border, leading to a low chance of a strong to severe storm across the far southeast plains once again tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Model data continues to indicate a slow weakening of the west to southwest flow aloft into the early weekend, as upper level ridging is progged to build across the Desert Southwest and into the Rockies. There will continue to be dry air in place on Friday, with enough mixing to support Critical Fire Weather conditions over the higher terrain, where a Fire Weather Watch remains in place. Further east, despite the hot temperatures and dry conditions, current wind forecast does not support fire weather highlights at this time. By Saturday, flow aloft weakens enough to support only spotty Critical Fire Weather conditions expected over the higher terrain, with a passing front bringing a slight increase in low level moisture across the plains.

For Sunday, and continuing into the middle of next week, model data keeps weak south to southwest flow in place with upper level ridging across the Rockies. This allows for a slow moistening of the atmosphere leading to increasing chances of daily showers and storms and more seasonal temperatures through the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 540 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Gusty winds this evening will give way to light and variable winds at all three TAF sites. Winds will start to increase again tomorrow afternoon as mixing develops. Otherwise, dry conditions with periods of mid to high level clouds is anticipated. In addition, smoke and haze will be a concern for KPUB and KCOS, but especially KPUB given closer proximity to a wildfire in the Wet Mountains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Critical Fire Weather conditions remain likely for much of the district through Friday with current Red Flag Warnings in place through 10 pm tonight. Poor RH recovery remains expected over and near the higher terrain tonight. Temperatures warm Thursday and Friday, and with very dry air in place, a Red Flag Warning is in place from 10 AM Thursday through midnight Thursday night, with a Fire Weather Watch in place for areas over the higher terrain on Friday.

Weaker winds on Saturday will produce more spotty critical fire weather conditions, with the potential for more moisture within weak south to southwest flow aloft leading to more chances of wetting rains from daily showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>230- 233. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for COZ220>230. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ220>225-229.