textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon across the southwest mountains.

- Shower and thunderstorm activity to continue across the higher terrain, and especially the southwest mountains, today through Tuesday, then spreading to the Pikes Peak region Wednesday.

- Eastern plains to remain warm and dry through Tuesday, then significantly cooler into the weekend.

- First freeze for the high valleys Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently...Upper low center located just off the CA Baja coast was continuing to produce deep southwest flow across the Desert SW and Four Corners regions, with abundant moisture advection in place for the western half of CO. Extensive cloud cover was evident across much of the state as per satellite imagery, helping to keep temps somewhat mild as of midnight. Currently temps were in the 50s and 60s for most locations, but are expected to dip into the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains, by daybreak.

Today and tonight...Longwave trough of low pressure over the western US will remain in place through the short term, keeping strong southwest flow across the Four Corners. This will lead to continued shower and thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain, with a bullseye persisting over the eastern San Juan mts, while the eastern plains remain dry and hot. Forecast QPF for the SW mts is coming in close to an inch of water today, with the greatest amounts occurring this afternoon through early evening. This also coincides with the best window for potentially some strong thunderstorms, with a combination of 50-60 knots of bulk shear and 500 j/kg of CAPE. Main threats this afternoon will be gusts to 50 mph, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail and cloud to ground lightning. As for temps, plan on another day of highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Fairly good model agreement through Tuesday, then dramatic differences Wednesday onward. NBM seems to lean more towards what the GFS is selling for the latter half of the week so will speak to that solution, but realize that the forecast remains very fluid.

Monday...Upper trough moves ever so slightly to the east through Monday, with the upper low center dropping south into NV after midnight. Strangely, this will lead to a brief lull in shower and storm activity along the Continental Divide through the morning, with activity then expected to pick up through the evening. Increased cloud cover for the western sections of the forecast area will lead to a few degrees of cooling for the high valleys, with highs in the mid 60s to near 70F, while the eastern plains remain warm and dry with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Tuesday...Trough continues on the slow progression to the east, with the upper low pushing into UT through the day. GFS indicated the low centroid actually dives a little further south into southern UT, closer to the actual Four Corners. Regardless, precipitation starts to increase in coverage once again across the higher terrain, and as colder air filters in, precip across mt peaks will make the switch over to snow. Weak snow amounts persist, with maybe 2-3 inches for the eastern San Juans, and up to 4 inches for the peaks in Lake County. Precip finally starts to spread east into the Pikes Peak region Tue evening. Cold front previously promised has been pushed off to the following day, so plan on one more warm and basically dry day for the plains with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. The high valleys will be cooler, with afternoon highs in the 60s.

Wednesday...Upper low ejects northeast across the NW quad of CO through the day, reaching South Dakota by early Thu morning. However, this solution is 6-12 hrs slower than previous runs, which may be a hint of changes to come - we shall see. Precip finally spreads to the eastern plains, as does the cold front, so finally some temperature relief arrives. Look for high temps in the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and 60s to around 70F for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Upper low continues moving out of the region on Thu, allowing brisk N-NW flow to briefly settle in before a ridge of high pressure builds in. This will lead to a couple of cool but dry days before warming returns by the weekend. Looking at the EC solution, throw all of that out the window and insert a big question mark. Stay tuned. Moore

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the San Luis Valley this afternoon, with potential impacts at KALS starting after 22Z.

Gusty winds are also expected across the terminals this afternoon into early this evening, with winds out of the southwest gusting 25- 30 knots. Mid-level cloud cover will increase across the region as well.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.