textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again Wednesday, with the best coverage continuing to be north of Highway 50.

- Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley today with elevated fire weather conditions across the southern I-25.

- Cooler and wetter weather still on track starting Wednesday night and continuing through the day Friday, with widespread rain/high terrain snow.

- Warmer and drier for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 133 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to indicate moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, as one embedded short wave is lifting out across eastern Colorado, with another embedded wave not far behind translating across the eastern Great Basin at this time. Regional radars have scattered showers and thunderstorms lifting out across the Northern and Central mtns, as well across the Pikes Peak region and into northeastern Colorado at this time. Satellite data is also indicating stratus starting to fill in across the Pikes Peak region, with moist convective outflow pushing south and west at this time.

The next embedded wave will keep showers ongoing across the northern central mtns through the overnight hours, with light accumulations of a few inches possible across the higher terrain of the central mtns, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass. Further east, stratus remains expected to fill in across the plains overnight, with the potential for a few showers through the early morning hours, with mid level waa within the southwest flow aloft. Stratus should keep temperatures above freezing across the plains, though can't rule out some patchy frost, especially across northern portions of El Paso county. Stratus looks to break up through mid morning across the plains, with another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through the afternoon and early evening, favoring northern portions of area, north of the Highway 50 Corridor.

With good mixing, should see critical fire weather conditions developing across the San Luis Valley through the early afternoon, with a few hours of critical fire weather conditions possible in the gap prone areas of the southern I-25 Corridor, before the passing waves associated front brings in more moisture and weaker winds. Highs today to be similar to yesterdays readings, in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the plains, with 30s, 40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Lows tonight to be mainly in the 30s across the plains, and in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 133 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For Wednesday through Friday, models continue to indicate run to run differences on timing and phasing of northern and southern stream energy across the Rockies, however, they latest runs are trending faster and stronger with the northern stream system, which looks to keep the southern stream system further south.

With that said, current models are indicating the northern stream trough starting to dig across the Northern and into the Central Rockies Wednesday night, with waa leading to scattered showers across the region. A cooler and more moist airmass pushes into the plains on Thursday, with moisture and lift from the digging northern stream trough, bringing widespread rain and snow to the region Thursday and Thursday night, favoring areas over and near the eastern mountains, where modest sfc-h7 easterly upslope will enhance precipitation. If current model trends remain true, precipitation looks to wind down from north to south through the day Friday, as drier air works into the region from the north. Again, current model trends have the greatest qpf of 1 to 1.5 inches over and near the eastern mtns, with a 0.5 to 1 inch across the eastern plains and across the Continental Divide into the high mountain valleys. While its too early to hone in snowfall, snowlevels around 8000-9000 feet through the day Thursday could fall to around 6000-7000 feet Thursday night before rising again through the day Friday. This could bring the potential for several inches snow across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa, as well as higher end Winter Weather Advisory amounts across the higher terrain. Temperatures through this period look to be will below seasonal levels with the potential for another widespread freeze across the plains Friday night into Saturday morning. A warming and drying trend remains on tap for Saturday into early next week, as upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KALS...

VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Gusty west winds, 25- 30 knots, will pick up this afternoon along with increasing mid- level clouds.

KCOS...

MVFR-IFR cigs and cloudy skies will last into midday, improving the rest of this forecast period. Showers are expected to form over the Palmer Divide this afternoon, between 22-00Z or so. While no precip is expected at the terminal, outflow winds may have an impact on wind direction, though confidence in the exact placement of shower formation is low enough to not mention any outflow winds in this round of TAFs. However, gusts during that timeframe will still be 20- 25 knots or so, locally enhanced to around 30 knots if showers drift closer to the terminal.

KPUB...

East to southeast winds will continue through most of today. Meanwhile, cloud cigs will hover in the MVFR-IFR range through about midday. Gusty northeast winds, 25-30 knots, will pick up around 00Z, dropping cigs back to MVFR as winds shift southeast later tonight. Showers are not currently expected near the terminal today, though some data shows some upslope-enhanced showers potentially forming right around the end of this forecast period. Confidence is currently low, but will monitor for updates as new model runs come in today.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.