textproduct: Pueblo

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1257 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A weak but rather moist disturbance was located over far southwestern part of the country early this afternoon, Clouds associated with this system were beginning to push east- northeastward along with some light radar echoes noted over the greater 4 corners region. Another area of precip was noted down in central NM and was progressing northward.

For the rest of this afternoon, best chance of isolated showers will be across the San Juans. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies plains with partly to mostly cloudy skies over the higher terrain.

For this evening into tonight, Some of the hi res guidance is bringing some light showers from NM into the region, and we could see a few shower over parts of the plains this evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly clear skies tonight.

For tomorrow, isolated showers will once again be possible over the mtns and valleys, with dry conditions over the plains. It will be cooler tomorrow over the plains, with max temps 65 to 70F. mtns and valleys will be similar to todays max temps.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

For the San JUan mtns (SJU mtns)...

A deep trough is fcst to form over the western CONUS and then move slowly east through mid to late week. This trough will draw up tropical moisture into the SJU mtn. Given this...

Scattered showers are expected during the Tuesday time frame. Wednesday will likely see little if any precip SJU mtns, but the precip will ramp up Wednesday evening and last into Friday. The precip will likely be heavy as a review of the guidance shows a direct moisture tap coming into the sju mtns. Statistical products (NBM 1 viewer) are showing 2-3" of liquid with this first round of precip. Since this moisture source is coming directly into the region from the subtropics, it will be warm and most, if not all, of the precip will be rain.

A second round of lift will move over the SJU mtns from late Sunday through Monday. This forcing will be more associated with the mid level 500 mb trough, and temps will be colder. This will allow for the precip to have a bit more snow with it, and another inch or so of liquid equivalent will be possible.

As has been mentioned in several previous AFDs, The SJU mtn region is soaked and any additional heavy precip is likely going to cause high water issues. Additionally, looking at visible sat pix imagery, there appears to be quite a bit of fresh snow in place over the higher peaks of the SJU mtns, and the upcoming heavy rain combined with snow melt could make the high water issues worse. Folks who live in the region OR are traveling in this region are strongly urged to pay attention to later forecast regarding this upcoming weather situation. All the typical hazards associated with heavy rain in the mtns will be possible (rock slides/flash flooding)

For the plains...

Dry and warm through Thursday. Warm weather continues into Friday, but we may see some showers over the lower elevations, especially along the NM border and the KS border areas. It will be cooler all of plains Saturday and Sunday with a chance of showers, once again best chances will be along the NM and KS borders.

Valleys, central mtns and mtns adjacent to plains...

isolate precip Tues with somewhat drier Wednesday during the daylight hours, but shower will pick up Wednesday evening into Friday, especially over the central mtns, valleys and west slopes of the mtns adjacent to the plains. Precip will be more scattered late Friday into the weekend. \/Hodanish

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be quite light and diurnally driven.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.