textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow impact the area through Saturday morning.

- Multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are likely next week, with Tuesday being the day of greatest concern.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

As a deep upper trough steadily progresses toward the region this afternoon, deep southwesterly flow has continued to usher in better moisture over the western half of the state. Have noted some periodic snow showers over the Continental, mainly the southwest mountains, but given the limited nature this has been more sporadic. Will see increases in coverage and even intensity of snow over the Continental Divide through the remainder of the afternoon, again, most notable over the southwest maintains given the orientation of the flow. Did debate going with an Advisory for the Southwest mountains, however, amounts remain low. This is as the trough pushes through by early this evening, and we get into the baggier weak flow which would not be supported of additional heavier snows. Will keep a close eye on trends though, and adjust as needed. Snow then spills into the remaining southeast mountains later this evening into the overnight hours, with even the mountain valleys observing both rain and then snow tonight. Again, amounts look to be on the lower side. The only exception will be for the Wet Mountain Valley where a deep trough looks to swing through, potentially giving a longer duration of more focused snow. By later this evening, will see a blossoming precip shield over most of the plains, with rain being the likely precip type tonight. Thermal profiles looks to be warm with not a lot of movement to cool tonight. The exception will be areas closer to the higher terrain, especially the Palmer Divide where higher chances for snow are expected. Again, amounts will be on the low side.

Drying and clearing occur through midday Saturday, with temperatures rebounding back to the 50s and even 60s in spots.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

The beginning of the period will be marked by strong upper ridging across the region, which will help temps really soar above normal over much of southern Colorado. Despite the warm temps and even drier weather in place, RH values do remain above critical levels for most locations. Also, lee troughing on this day will help winds increase, mainly over the higher terrain and especially the far eastern plains. With these anticipated conditions, shouldn't see critical fire weather conditions develop on Sunday. By Monday, this upper ridge shifts east and even flattens some, while another trough digs over the far western CONUS. Southwesterly flow settles in on Monday, with additional warming likely, with highs pushing almost 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. With these warmer temps, slightly drier air, and increasing flow especially over and near the higher terrain, fire danger begins to increase on this day. Where lowest RH values and highest winds occur will be just lee of the mountains along the I-25 corridor. Given recent trends and increasing confidence, did go ahead and issue a Fire Weather Watch for these locations with RHs looking to fall in the 10 to 15 percent range and winds gusting to 35 mph. Elsewhere, the highest winds with lowest RHs don't look to come together to support widespread or longer duration critical fire weather conditions. This is something that could change and will need to be closely monitored.

Monday begins the first day of a likely multi day period of high fire danger, with Tuesday still looking to be the most impactful day given the likely higher winds and gusts and lower RH values. Upper trough remains primarily over the western CONUS but a piece of it will shift east along with a rather strong jet. The jet at 500 mb could easily reach and even exceed 75 to 85 kt, while the upper level jet approaching 160 kt. This jet and potential wave action looks to support very high winds and gusts. Current deterministic forecast has 50 to 60 mph over the plains and 80 to 90 mph over the higher terrain. This fits in line with some of the prob data, with NBM output showing some very high probabilities for 60 mph or greater. Current forecast is around the 25th percentile, which gives some additional higher confidence for our current forecast. However, with mean values even higher, think our forecast could even trend higher over the next several days. Some slight cooling occurs on Tuesday, however, the drier air still in place will support 10 to 15 percent RH values, primarily over the plains. Do think there is some possibility for temps to be higher and dew points to be lower and this is something we're keeping close eye on. If this occurs, then min RH values on Tuesday could easily dip into the single digits, and support potential extreme fire weather conditions. Still closely monitoring these trends, but confidence is high for critical fire weather conditions over the plains Tuesday. So, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the plains on Tuesday.

While some slight relief in terms of temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, even drier air settles into place. With the jet remaining over head, high fire danger looks to continue over the plains Wednesday and Thursday.

Early Tuesday through Thursday, this stronger westerly flow and increasing moisture will provide continue snow development over the Continental Divide. Given the duration and potential for higher impactful snows, could see winter headlines needed over these areas at some point next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

After a period of quieter weather this afternoon, anticipate conditions to deteriorate as a larger precip shield blossoms overhead this evening into early Saturday morning. Winds during the afternoon will be generally light with VFR conditions and dry weather in place. By early these evening, a larger system will bring that precip shield further northeast, reaching ALS first and then COS and PUB to follow. Precip will initially be light with conditions slowly falling to around high end MVFR conditions. Steadier and slightly heavier precip arrives during the overnight hours, and that's when solid MVFR ceilings and vis will be in place at all sites. Do think that low end MVFR conditions will be likely and can't rule out IFR conditions, but confidence of these lower conditions is low at this time. Did include mention of snow at all sites with ALS and COS having the highest chances of observing snow. Do think impacts under any snow should be low at this time. Precip will diminish early Saturday morning with ceilings slowly rising, and as northerly winds increase.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for COZ226>230. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ226>237.