textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Damaging winds will return to the San Luis Valley, Southeast mountains and southern I-25 corridor along and south of highway 50 Wednesday.

- High Fire Danger will returns for a large portion of southeast CO on Wednesday, particularly along and south of highway 50 and east of I-25.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible again on Thursday along the I-25 corridor though winds not as strong.

- Steady light snow and blowing snow continues tonight along the Continental Divide with another round of heavy snow impacting the mountains on Wednesday.

- Another round of precipitation expected on Friday with the potential for some light snow to spread across the plains through the evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fairly widespread wind gusts in the 60 to 75 mph range have spread across southeast CO this afternoon as the first shortwave and front crossed the mountains this morning. Wind gusts in the 55 to 65 mph range will continue through the afternoon and early evening with the focus for the stronger winds shifting southward with time. High Wind Warnings up north will come down at the scheduled 2 PM timeframe, while high wind warnings continue farther south until 7 PM. Meanwhile, drier air is spreading off the mountains behind the front along the I-25 corridor with Red Flag Criteria being met across El Paso, Pueblo and Huerfano counties. As these drier surface dew points spread eastward, most the plains should see Red Flag humidity values in the next couple hours which will continue until 7 PM.

Meanwhile, heavy snow has fallen along the Continental Divide with poor visibilities in blowing snow reported at Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes. While showers have tapered back some, the winds will continue to produce blowing snow concerns through the evening and overnight even as snow decreases this evening.

Next shortwave trough will move across the area on Wednesday, ramping up snow again along the Continental Divide through the day. Snow squall parameters increase again as instability increases in the afternoon and the upper jet noses in. Another round of heavy snowfall rates with the potential for snow squalls will impact the Continental Divide, and spread into the Sangre De Cristo range during the afternoon. A few showers may spread off into the adjacent plains during the late afternoon and evening though these will rapidly diminish as they push off the mountains under downslope drying. HREF probabilities of wind gusts 58 mph or higher range from 40-60 percent across the San Luis Valley, southern mountains and southern I-25 corridor. National Blend of Models has been consistent in showing probabilities of QMD Wind gusts meeting/exceeding 58 mph in the 60 to 90 percent range across the same area but also extending a bit farther north to locations along and south of highway 50, and even as far east as La Junta. Experimental NBM shows a similar pattern and similar probabilities. Have opted to throw up a High Wind Warning for Wednesday with this second round as even the HRRR, which verified reasonably well today, shows high wind criteria being met across this region. Blowing dust will once again be a concern, especially as showers roll off the mountains into the adjacent valleys and plains.

Red Flag Warnings will return again for Wednesday, mainly along and south of highway 50. Opted to remove eastern Huerfano county as dew points rise during the afternoon as showers spread off the mountains. Depending on how fast this occurs, it's possible that portions of western Pueblo and western Las Animas County could come up shy of criteria of the 15% criteria as well. Farther east we could see humidities as low as 10%, though the 25 percentile and lower of the experimental NBM does show the possibility of humidities as low as 9% across Baca county. Did not go with a PDS Red Flag just yet as confidence is low, but if it were to happen, this would be the prime area. -KT

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strong winds may linger along the mountains into the early evening Wednesday. Current wind highlights end at 7 PM but may need to be extended depending on the timing of the ejecting system. Otherwise, snowfall should diminish out west after 11 PM as the system departs and current winter weather highlights still look on track.

It will still be windy for Thursday with a cold front backdooring into the southeast plains through the day. With strong winds and low dew points crossing the mountains into the I-25 corridor once again, the I-25 corridor still looks prime for another critical fire weather day. Wind gusts do not look as strong but gusts in the 30 to 40 mph will still be sufficient to bring another round of critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this area from southern El Paso county to the CO/NM line. Meanwhile snow showers will continue across the mountains, though amounts remain on the lighter side.

Next upper trough pivots across CO Friday through Friday night bringing the potential for another round of snow to the mountains, and a brief window for showers across the plains. Fortunately there will be much less wind with this round, so no fire or high wind highlights expected. Mountains could see some more moderate snow accumulations though, especially along the Continental Divide.

After some quiet weather for the weekend, temperatures will warm and winds ramp up again into early next week. -KT

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours, though damaging winds and degraded visibility from blowing snow and dust may also be possible. There are a few more hours of blowing snow possible off and on at KALS through 20Z this afternoon, and blowing dust may be possible at KPUB for the next few hours as well, though confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this time. The main concern will be the potential for damaging winds. Gusts in excess of 55kt have been observed near all three sites. Wind shear may also be possible overnight if any stations manage to decouple. This looks to be most likely (though still a low end chance) at KCOS, with both KALS and KPUB remaining windy all the way down to the surface through the overnight hours.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Wednesday for COZ058- 059-061-066-067. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Wednesday for COZ060-068. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ069>075- 077>080-083-086>089-093>099. High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for COZ069>075-077>080-083-086>088. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ222-227>230. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for COZ226>237. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for COZ228- 230>237. Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ095>099.