textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the evening.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, especially across the Southern Mtns and Raton Mesa on Saturday.

- Warming trend for Sunday with more moisture possibly moving into the region early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating moderate westerly flow aloft across the Rockies, with another embedded short wave translating across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies at this time. Said wave is aiding in shower development across the West Slope and into the Continental Divide early this afternoon. GOES imagery indicating some stratus still in place across Pikes Peak region, with southerly low level flow, along with cumulus building across the higher terrain at this time. Drier air has moved into the the plains behind last nights cold front, with dew pts mainly in the 30s across the plains, and in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain. SPC meso-analysis reflects that, with modest CAPE of up to 250 j/kg across the higher terrain, with some weak CIN still in place across the lee of SE mtns at this time.

With only modest available CAPE, we are still expecting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, to develop across the higher terrain today, as the embedded short wave continues to translate across the region into tonight. Latest higher res model data continues to support the best coverage across the Pikes Peak and Raton Mesa regions, where the best instability and shear will be, supporting the potential for a few stronger storms capable of producing small hail, gusty outflow winds and brief moderate rainfall. Showers could linger across the plains into the overnight hours, with increasing mid level waa associated with the passing wave.

Less convection remains in the offing for Saturday, as drier air behind tonight's passing system filters in to the region. With that said, will see more isolated, higher based showers and possibly storms, over and near the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon. The one exception may be across the Raton Mesa and Southern Tier, where better low level moisture could ooze in from northeastern New Mexico. If the better low level moisture does make it into the Southern Tier, there could be a few stronger storms, with more expected sunshine and good shear in place.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Weak upper level ridging will bring modest west to northwest flow across the region for Sunday into Monday, with latest model data indicating more south to southwest flow developing later Monday into the middle of the next week, as another upper trough develops across the West Coast. Intermountain West through early next week. The upper level ridging will support a warming and drying trend for Sunday, with enough residual moisture in place to support isolated afternoon mtn showers. By Monday, models continue to indicate the potential for increasing moisture within the southerly flow aloft, leading to increasing chances for showers and storms into the middle of the week. High much moisture remains in question, which could lead to increased fire danger, especially across the higher terrain along the Continental Divide, with the increased potential for lightning. Beyond Tuesday, models are struggling in the details of ejecting the West Coast energy across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with a developing trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Time will tell.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 510 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

For KCOS and KPUB..MVFR ceilings and visibilities will remain possible at both stations through the overnight hours, with improvement to VFR conditions likely after 15Z or so Saturday morning. Rain showers have pushed through PUB and will be possible at KCOS over the next few hours as well. Winds remain primarily easterly, with gusts near or below 15kt through the rest of the forecast period.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Some rain showers have pushed through the vicinity of KALS through the past hour or two, but precip hasn't been observed on station. Gusty outflows to around 30kt were observed with these showers, and may continue to be possible this evening. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds are likely through the period, with increasing west winds on Saturday afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.