textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm and dry for most locations today, with snow over the Continental Divide ending this afternoon.

- Warm conditions continue through Monday, with elevated fire weather concerns possible Sunday and Monday for parts of the area.

- Snow chances increasing for late in the work week???

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

For much of the overnight hours, snow has been mainly confined to the higher peaks of the central mountains, with snow and blowing snow noted on webcams and obs around Monarch Pass. Flow has become more westerly with both RAP analysis and satellite imagery noting lowering moisture over much of the area. This trend that was observed for much of the night will begin to change over the next few hours, as a fairly strong mid level vort max dives south through the region this morning. As this vort max approaches, will see both forcing and moisture quickly ramp back up, and with snow coverage and intensity increasing all along the Continental Divide. A period of light to moderate snow, with additional amounts up 5 inches, will then be likely this morning through around midday. With the poor conditions already in place along with the stronger winds and with returning snow, did go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Eastern Sawatch and Eastern San Juan mountains through this afternoon. Do have this going through this afternoon, however, conditions should begin to improve by around midday or early afternoon.

Elsewhere, expect mainly dry weather once again today. Slightly better forcing and moisture is anticipated over the mountain valleys today, and would expect periods of rain or snow this morning, especially over the San Luis Valley. Most areas will see sunnier conditions to start the day, but with mid and high clouds returning by midday. Nonetheless, above normal temperatures persist today.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

Models and ensembles are in better agreement this morning with the evolution of the upper pattern for the later half of the extended period.

Saturday...upper level ridging will track east across Colorado during the day, with dry, quiet weather across the region. Temperatures will remain warm, with upper 50s to lower 60s across the Plains, and mid to upper 40s over the San Luis Valley.

Saturday night into Monday...the upper level ridge is forecast to push east into the Central Plains, with broad westerly flow increasing across Colorado. Overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will be warm across the Plains with mostly 30s, with the warmest readings along the mid slopes of the Eastern Mountains. Flow aloft increases on Sunday, with enhanced mixing helping to warm temperatures through the afternoon. The Plains will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures could be a few degrees higher, but widespread cloud cover associated with embedded energy in the flow will likely keep temperatures from reaching their full potential. In addition, elevated fire weather conditions are looking more likely along and west of I-25 Sunday afternoon, especially in gap wind prone areas. This will continue to be monitored. An isolated snow shower will be possible Sunday afternoon along the Continental Divide as the embedded energy moves across the region.

A second embedded wave in the westerly flow will move across the state Sunday night through Monday. Continued mixing will help temperatures warm once again well into the 60s to lower 70s on the Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions will once again be possible, mainly south of Highway 50 during the afternoon due to low humidity and gusty winds. Another round of Continental Divide snow will be possible Monday afternoon and overnight.

Tuesday through Friday...models have generally converged on a solution. All guidance has come into line with and upper wave off southern California ejecting east Tuesday into Wednesday, but remaining well to the south. That will keep precipitation to the south, with the exception of a few light snow showers along the Continental Divide. Temperatures will be cooler both days, with highs falling back into the 50s for the Plains.

Guidance then develops a secondary, stronger system digging south across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest region Thursday into Friday. This system looks to bring much colder temperatures, with highs by Friday only in the 30s to lower 40s on the Plains. This will also bring increased precipitation chances to the Mountains both days. On the Plains, much will depend on timing of the system, but there should be increasing chances for rain and snow showers by Friday. Mozley

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 439 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions with mainly dry weather is expected across the TAF sites this period. The exemption will be for ALS, where a period or rain or snow is appearing likely for a small window later this morning through midday. Did include a tempo for this rain snow mix, but with any impacts likely to remain limited and brief. Winds will begin light this morning, but will see stronger west northwest winds develop by midday and last into the afternoon. Don't anticipate any long lasting gusts at ALS and COS, but with gusts up to the mid 20 kt range likely more prevalent this afternoon at PUB.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ060-068.