textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage across the mountains and valleys.

- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage on Thursday over much of south central and southeast Colorado, with an increased of flash flooding.

- Showers and storms continue to increase in coverage for the end of the week and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Main concerns through the period are with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, more importantly, on Thursday over much of southern Colorado. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar Thursday afternoon and evening.

Latest radar imagery is depicting only isolated to widely scattered precip development and this is primarily tied to the higher terrain at this time. While increasing coverage and even intensity of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon, this should stay over and near the higher terrain. Most of the mountains should observe at least isolated development, however, think the highest coverage will be across the central mountains. Greatest height falls and forcing are occurring in this location, and in a location of higher instability. Elsewhere, large scale ascent is lower and with low to mid level focus also lacking. Additionally, guidance shows dewpoints dropping this afternoon over and near the southeast mountains, which makes sense given latest satellite imagery indicating an area of drier air lifting into Colorado at this time. This is also reflected in latest forecast soundings. The strongest storms over the central mountains will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, outflow winds to 50-55 mph, and frequent lightning.

A front will push south down the plains early this evening, bringing a period of stronger northerly winds. While the winds should not be overly strong, would not be surprised to see a period of winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph for a time. Precip diminishes this evening through much of Thursday morning, however, increasing moisture and instability pushing into much of the area will support additional precip chances on Thursday. This moisture and instability will occur with stronger large scale ascent and low to middle focus. Given this occurring, think most areas over southern Colorado will observe showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings are showing tall moist and unstable soundings with weak flow in place. This should support the development of slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. Given the increased potential for this to occur over the Aspen Acres burn scar, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the long term period, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. The favorable monsoon pattern will continue for the region, with the high pressure remaining to the southeast, and moist southwesterly flow continuing to stream over the area. With that said, there may be some wobble in the location of the high pressure early next week, but model guidance is in decent agreement with keeping moist flow in place, leading to better confidence in the forecast. So, with this pattern in place, daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, with heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and frequent lightning the main hazards. In addition, flash flooding may become a concern heading into this period due to both slow moving thunderstorms and the potential for areas to receive multiple rounds of heavy rain on different days. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light outside of thunderstorms, with increased cloud cover during the afternoon and evening hours. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will cool to around and below seasonal values for mid August.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1102 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions and mainly dry weather are anticipated this forecast period for all of the terminals. Afternoon and early shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated, however, the highest coverage of development will stay over and near the higher terrain. Given the low chance that a few storms do make it off of the mountains this afternoon, have maintained the prob30 at all sites.

The main impacts with winds this period will be early this evening for COS and PUB as a fairly strong front pushes south over the plains. Made little changes to the wind shift, though did bump the shift by an hour for COS and did increase the speeds and gusts by a couple of knots. Will keep an eye on this shift, as a small window of higher speeds and gusts will be possible.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ079-080-086.