textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers early for Halloween Day, with mostly dry conditions for the afternoon and evening.

- High impact and dangerous flooding likely early next week as another strong storm system bring heavy precipitation to the southwestern Mountains.

- An unsettled pattern continues next week after Monday for the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 103 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Today and Tonight: Happy Halloween!!!! For the spooky day, nothing too scary going on weather wise for south central and southeastern Colorado. Overall, broad southwesterly flow will be in place throughout the day, bringing only modest moisture and forcing. An embedded shortwave will drift over early in the day however, which will bring a brief boost to forcing. With this uptick in ascent, scattered showers are expected early in the day across mostly the mountains and valleys, where orographic forcing will better support precipitation. Light snow can be expected along the mountains, generally from 10,000-10,300+ft, with rain below that. While snow will be relatively light, slick spots on roads can't be ruled out, so extra caution should be given along mountain road ways early. With that all said, subsidence will increase behind the wave as it exits early, with dry conditions then prevailing through the day and into the overnight hours. A rouge shower or two can't be ruled out across the higher terrain where terrain influences may still help a shower blossom. Beyond all of that, winds will remain fairly light, around and less than 10 mph, with mostly cloudy skies early giving way to partly skies during the afternoon, before clouds start to increase in coverage again during the evening hours. As for temperatures, both highs and lows will be above seasonal values for late October. Highs for the plains will be in the low 60s to low 70s, for the valleys in the upper 40s to 50s, and for the mountains in the low 30s to upper 40s. For the lows, the plains will be in the upper 30s to 40, for the valleys in the 30s to low 40s, and for the mountains in the mid 20s to 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 103 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Sunday and Monday: For the start of November, an active couple of days is anticipated, with high impact flooding expected across the already soaked southwestern mountains. A dynamic storm pattern will take shape, with the sub-tropical jet pushing northward, and a digging trough interacting with this. Confidence at this point is very high (>80%) in this upcoming pattern. As these two large scale features interact, another round of prolonged and heavy precipitation is anticipated across our mountains, with the heaviest falling across the San Juan Mountains. On the front side of this storm system, the airmass will be relatively warm, leading to higher snow levels Sunday, around 11,000-12,000+ft, and rain for a majority of the region. Then on the backside of the system, cooler Pacific air will filter in and drop snow levels to around 9,000-10,000ft by Monday morning. Overall, the warm and moist nature of this storm system is what will cause issues. This will favor a significant amount of precipitation falling as rain, with QPF totals ranging from 2-4 inches. This amount of liquid on top of already highly saturated soils, water laden snow, and running into rivers that are already elevated from last weeks rain event, will likely lead to another highly impactful flood event across the southwestern mountains and into the San Luis Valley. Currently, local rivers in that region are forecasted to quickly rise into Moderate to Major flood stages heading through Monday, with some rivers nearing record crest levels. Folks, the window for flood preparations is closing. Preparations should be ongoing and finished by this afternoon. Do not wait until it starts to rain and do not wait until the waters start to rise... by then it is too late. Then as alluded to, snow levels will start to lower heading through Sunday night and into Monday morning, which will transition some of the rain into snow, with around 12-15 inches of heavy, wet snow anticipated with this entire storm system. This will likely cause travel impacts along the southwestern mountain roadways, with dangerous and slick road conditions, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. Across the rest of the higher terrain, additional heavy, wet snow can be expected, though to a lesser degree, with ranges typically from 4-10 inches. Elsewhere for the valleys and plains, rain scattered to numerous showers can be expected through this period. The greatest coverage for the valleys will be Sunday, with the greatest coverage then shifting eastward across the plains Monday as the storm system pushes east and a cold front drops southward. Along with all of that, strong winds can be expected both days, with gusty southwesterly winds Sunday on the front side of the storm system, with gusts of 30-50 mph, especially for the mountains, San Luis Valley, and eastern plains. Then gusty winds can be expected again Monday, as northwesterly winds develop on the backside of the storm system, with gusts again 30-50 mph, especially across the eastern plains. There is potential for winds to be stronger across the plains Monday night into Tuesday morning, but confidence on that is low (30%) at this time, at it will be highly dependent on how the trough evolves Monday night. Finally, to round things out for this stretch, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies can be anticipated with the stormy pattern in place, with temperatures warm and above seasonal values Sunday, and then cooling some Monday as the system passes and the aforementioned cold front starts dropping southward.

Tuesday - Friday: For the remainder of the long term period, periods of active weather are likely for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Overall, an active pattern will continue, with the Sunday - Monday storm system exiting Tuesday and additional waves within the flow passing over the region after that. Tuesday's exiting system will bring gusty winds early in the day, especially across the plains, with the later week features bringing increased precipitation chances, particularly for the mountains. While uncertainty does exist in how some of these waves will ultimately evolve, confidence is high (60-70%) about the unsettled pattern. Otherwise, breezy winds and uptick in cloud cover can be anticipated with these wave passages. As for temperatures, a fairly steady trend of mild temperatures can be expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1039 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Widespread mid and high level cloudiness expected through the forecast period. VFR conditions through approx 10z tonight, then gradually degrading conditions with lowering clouds, and patchy fog developing across the eastern plains.

KCOS: MVFR conditions 08z-17z. Tempo group for patchy fog 10-14z.

KPUB: VCFG by 08z. Tempo group for patchy fog and MVFR conditions 10-14z.

KALS: MVFR conditions between 10z and 16z. Gradual increase in S-SW flow Sat morning.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main concern will be flooding along the South Fork of the Rio Grande and Conejos Rivers, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. May have several hours of heavy rain on snow-pack Sun afternoon in the San Juans, as snow level rises to above 11000 feet for a time Sun afternoon/evening. This could lead to melting and excessive run-off, as QPF over along the Continental Divide has come up to around 3 inches of liquid (some of which will be snow). Run-off peak should be late Sun evening, before snow level falls and run-off starts to decrease early Mon morning. River stage forecasts continue to rise, with the South Fork of the Rio Grande at South Fork and the Conejos River at Mogote well above flood stage by early Mon morning. These high flows will then move downstream Mon/Tue with flooding possible on the mainstem Rio Grande at Del Norte and along the Conejos River east of Mogote through the period. As a result, issued a flood watch for all of the San Luis Valley, from late Sun night into Tue morning, mainly for mountain run-off, as rainfall in the Valley itself should be an inch or less.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for COZ067-068. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for COZ068. Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday night for COZ069>071.