textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today into Friday, initially across the higher terrain, then spreading into the Plains. A couple storms could be strong to severe Thursday on the Plains.

- Upper high pressure will build across the region over the weekend into early next week, with widespread temperatures pushing 100 degrees across the Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows quiet conditions across southern Colorado early this morning. A few clouds remain across the higher terrain from earlier convection, and should continue to dissipate through sunrise. Temperatures remain mild, with 70s across the Plains, lows by morning in the 60s.

Today and tonight...upper ridging will shift eastward across southern Colorado through the next 24 hours. An embedded upper vort max will move through the ridge, generating convection by mid afternoon. Storms will initiate across the higher terrain, then spread eastward into the adjacent Plains by early evening. Elevated CAPE, around 300-500 j/kg and very weak shear should limit any severe threat. The main concern will be the potential for gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. Lightning may also lead to addition fire starts. For our fresh burn scars, any brief heavy rainfall could lead to a flash flood potential. This activity will slowly move east into the Plains this evening, weakening through the evening hours. Model guidance has convection ending by midnight, with dry conditions prevailing into Wednesday morning. Overall, temperatures will remain hot, with 90s to near 100 degrees on the Plains, while the San Luis Valley sees highs in the 80s. Overnight lows will continue to be mild, with 60s across the Plains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Only minor differences in the upper pattern evolution through the extended period. The main difference between the GFS and ECMWF is a cut off upper low in the GFS that moves west into southern Colorado over the weekend, while the ECMWF is less defined and weaker with this upper feature.

Wednesday through Friday...models in agreement with a flat upper high across southern California into Arizona, with zonal westerly flow across Colorado. Multiple embedded waves will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area, before high pressure begins to build across the Great Basin Friday.

A surface boundary looks to drop south across the Plains Wednesday morning, with low level flow turning southeasterly by the afternoon. Aloft, an embedded upper wave will shift east across Colorado by the afternoon. This will lead to another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Convection looks to initiate across the higher terrain during the early afternoon, spreading into the Plains during the evening and clearing into Kansas overnight. Slightly better CAPE and shear are forecast, with gusty outflow winds and small hail possible. PWAT values will be increasing slightly, and convection could produce locally heavy rainfall. Flash flooding could be a concern on fresh burn scars. Temperatures will be slight cooler, but only by a couple degrees, with 90s to near 100 across the Plains.

A more robust upper wave embedded in the westerly flow aloft will shift east across Colorado on Thursday. Shear and CAPE continue to increase, especially across the Plains by late afternoon into the early evening. Expect storms to once again fire across the higher terrain, and track eastward into the Plains by early evening. As storms encounter a more favorable environment, a few could become strong to severe east of I-25. Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph may accompany stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, especially east of I-25. Temperatures will remain hot, with mostly 90s across the Plains.

The upper pattern begins to change on Friday with upper ridging building across the Great Basin. Drier air will begin to work into the western half of Colorado, with convection winding down for the Continental Divide. One last upper wave will drop southeast across the Plains with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Convection looks to fire across the Palmer Divide, and then slide southeast across the Plains during the evening hours. A few cells could become strong to severe near the Kansas border. Temperatures look to remain hot, with 90s for the Plains.

Saturday through Tuesday...a strong upper high is forecast to build across the Great Basin, and track east into the Central Plains into early next week. The main concern during this period will be the heat, with temperatures topping out over the weekend in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the Plains. The GFS does bring a weak cut off upper vort max low back west across the state, with low chances for precipitation over the weekend. The ECMWF is much drier, with a couple isolated cells possible across the southern Sangre de Cristo Range. As we move into early next week, temperatures look to remain hot, with highs pushing into the lower 100s. The upper high shifts east into the Central Plains, with moisture working north out of the Desert Southwest into the western Colorado. This may lead to an uptick in storms by early next week out west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through most of the period. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the San Luis Valley Tuesday late afternoon into the evening. Gusty outflow winds will be the main threat.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at both terminals during the last afternoon to early evening. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern with any convection that moves across the terminal.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.