textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger for much of the area on Wednesday and potentially again on Saturday.

- Very hot Wednesday, with Heat Advisories in place for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Temperatures of 90f to 105f likely over most valleys and across the plains.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Tuesday, especially eastern mountains and plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Upper ridge building into Colorado today has brought dry air and warmer temps to the region, with low level moisture shunted eastward into KS/OK/TX. Still enough nw flow aloft to keep gusty winds going across the mountains this afternoon, with Red Flag conditions over the central mountains and upper Arkansas Valley. Overnight, winds diminish somewhat, though just enough downslope component in place to keep min temps rather warm, with a few spots on the plains remaining in the low 60s through the night. On Wed, heights continue to build, with 700mb temps around 22c along I-25 as mid level thermal ridge strengthens. This should lead to max temps in the 90s/low 100s as a result, with heat advisories in place for El Paso/Pueblo/ern Fremont Counties. Record temps are possible at the 3 climate sites (KALS record 92f/forecast 91f, KCOS record 97f/forecast 97f, and KPUB record 103f/forecast 103f). While winds aloft aren't particularly strong (20-30 kts at 700mb, 30-40kts at 500 mb), deep mixing should allow some higher momentum air to reach the surface in the afternoon, especially across the northern half of the area, along and north of Highway 50. Have converted the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Wed, with most critical conditions over the central mountains/upper Arkansas Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Nrn stream wave pushes a cold front through the plains Wed night, bringing much cooler temps to the plains on Thu. Expect maxes 10-15 degf cooler than Wed along and east of the mountains, with only minor cooling of a couple degf over the mountains and plains. Winds at the surface and aloft decrease enough to lessen fire danger somewhat Thu afternoon, though still some pockets of elevated/brief critical over the central mountains and nrn San Luis Valley. Warming trend starts Fri as ridge/heights begin to build, while moisture continues to increase over the plains/ern mountains. Most models generate at least some high- based convection over the Sangres/srn I-25 corridor in the afternoon, though worry that we may have more wind/lightning than rain with much of the activity as t/td spreads remain rather large. Lead upper wave races eastward through the nrn Rockies on Sat, with increasing w-sw flow across Colorado through the day. Set-up Sat look favorable for more widespread critical fire weather, as winds aloft increase and low level moisture is shunted eastward. Front passes through the plains on the plains Sun with potential renewed westward surge of moisture and increasing precip chances mainly from I-25 eastward from Sun into Tue, though details still look a little messy this far out. Blended guidance of at least scattered pops and slightly cooler temps early next week looks fine for now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds at KPUB and KCOS will follow usual diurnal cycle, with s-se winds 10-15 kts this afternoon, followed by light (nly at KCOS, wly at KPUB) flow overnight. At KALS, period of gusty (20-25 kts) n-nw winds late this afternoon into early this evening, before winds become light wly overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Red Flag Warning remains in effect into this evening for the Central Mountains, Continental Divide, San Luis Valley and Fremont County. Most critical area will be across the central mountains/Upper Arkansas Valley/nrn San Luis Valley where winds will be strongest, with lighter winds and more spotty critical conditions farther south over the San Juans. Overnight, winds diminish, but relative humidity recovery will be poor, setting the stage for more widespread critical fire weather on Wed.

Fire Weather Watch upgraded to a Red Flag warning for areas west of I-25 on Wednesday. Increased northwesterly flow, very hot temperatures and humidity values under 10 percent will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, especially over the Central Mountains.

Periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue Thursday and Friday, mainly over the La Garita Range, Central Mountains and northern San Luis Valley. Potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions develops over the mountains and valleys Saturday, potentially spreading onto the Plains in the afternoon.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220- 222>224. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220>225-228>230. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ083>086.