textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and mostly dry today and Monday. Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the area.

- Briefly cooler with some showers and thunderstorms mid week.

- Heat returns with shower and thunderstorm activity a bit sparse for late in the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows high pressure across the Intermountain West, with broad northerly flow across Colorado. This has led to mostly clear skies across the region. Temperatures remain mild, with mostly 70s across the Plains, and 60s over the San Luis Valley. A few degrees of cool are expected overnight, with most areas in the 60s by daybreak.

Today and tonight...the upper high to the west is forecast to stretch across Colorado as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Weak energy in the northerly flow across southern Colorado may spark an isolated thunderstorm over the southern San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountain Ranges. Lightning, brief rainfall and outflow wind gusts near 40 mph may be possible. Storm coverage looks very minimal, and if storms do develop, will dissipate by early evening. The main issue for today will be the heat. Temperatures on the Plains will warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon across the Plains. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties. Take precautions to protect yourself and pets from the heat. Overnight, any convection over the southern Mountains will dissipate, with dry conditions prevailing into Monday morning. Lows will remain mild with 60s across the Plains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Models and ensembles continue to be in good agreement, all trending drier through the extended period. What was once an active looking pattern is become less so with each model cycle.

Monday...the upper high will remain stretched across Colorado as the upper trough in the Pacific Northwest moves into the Northern Rockies. Weak energy moving through the ridge will lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain. The main threats from convection will be lightning and gusty outflow winds. Drier air will keep precipitation rates low, with most evaporating before reaching the ground. Heat will continue to be the main concern. Temperatures will continue warm by about 3-5 degrees F Monday compared to Sunday. Highs on the Plains will top out from near 100 to around 107. Heat Advisories look good, for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont Counties, the lower Arkansas River Valley and the San Luis Valley. Highs could be pushing daily records. Please continue to take precautions to protect yourself and pets from the heat.

As the upper trough moves into Montana, the upper ridge will be forced south, with increasing westerly flow across Colorado Monday night. This will push convection off the higher terrain across the Plains during the evening and overnight hours. Lightning and gusty outflow winds may accompany storms. Expect thunderstorms to exit into Kansas by Tuesday morning. A cold front will be arrive late Monday night on the Plains, with a northeasterly wind shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the upper trough will slowly move east across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest for mid week. This will keep westerly flow across Colorado, with the upper high pushed to the south. What once looked like an active period has really dried out. PWAT values look to remain under 1 inch, and energy moving through the westerly flow continues to weaken with each run. The cold front on Tuesday will switch winds northeasterly, with upslope flow developing showers and thunderstorms along the Eastern Mountains Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation rates continue to decrease with ever lower PWAT values, and flash flooding on area burn scars is not as likely as it may have once been. But, we will still monitor in case a heavier storm moves over Aspen Acres. Very similar conditions are forecast for Wednesday, with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain. Convection looks to initiate over the Mountains and drift southeast by the evening before dissipating across the Plains. Temperatures will be cooler with 80s and lower 90s both days.

Thursday into Sunday...models continue to converge on a drier solution. The ECMWF has been consistently building the high pressure over the Desert Southwest north across Colorado. The GFS and Canadian along with the ensembles are all starting to latch onto this solution. While weak embedded energy may develop daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the higher terrain, coverage is more sparse than in previous runs. Temperatures will also be on the rebound for late in the week, with 90s to near 100 by next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 955 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions and generally light diurnal wind regimes are expected at COS, PUB and ALS through out this taf period. Convection will be more limited through the day on Sunday, as upper high pressure builds across the Rockies, however, there could be some isolated showers and storms across the higher terrain, especially across the southern mtns. This could bring the potential for gusty winds to ALS through the late afternoon and early evening, however, potential too low to bring into the taf at this time.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ069>071- 083>086-093-097-098. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.