textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Fewer showers expected today into the weekend for the plains.

- Mountainous areas will experience the best chance for afternoon showers.

- Temperatures will remain above average especially in areas where showers do not form.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Shower and storm coverage continues to trend lower for today. The upper level shortwave disturbance that was assisting in storm production over the plains for the past few days will migrate northeastward. Filling in behind this synoptic feature will be much drier air at the lower-levels. Dew point temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s are expected today through the end of the work week. This drier air will decrease the likelihood of any major storm cells forming over the plains. That said, isolated "popcorn" showers are still possible near the higher terrain in SE CO as daytime heating and orographic effects combine possibly allowing some thermal upslope flows to reach saturation (LCL @ ~450mb). Model soundings show an inverted "V" profile due to the lack of moisture in the environment. Storms that do form will most likely have strong downdraft/outflow winds up to 50mph that could funnel through gaps in the terrain as high resolution models show DCAPE values near 1000j/kg. Lightning strikes are possible, as is moderate to heavy rainfall directly under these cells. Elsewhere away from storms, expect continued above normal temperatures and gusty, terrain- driven, afternoon winds across most of the area today and Friday. DS

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Into the weekend, warm, above normal temperatures continue for most of the area. For Saturday, NBM probabilities of temperatures >90F are between 95-100% for the Arkansas River valley and a 30% chance for Colorado Springs. The REFS model is slightly cooler with only a 50-80% chance of >90F for the bottom of the river valley and ~25% for the Springs. Either way, a warming trend is imminent as decreased widespread cloud coverage due to broad upper level ridging takes effect. The storms mentioned in the short term discussion are predicted to continue with areal coverage peaking on Sunday for the higher terrain as of right now. The aforementioned dry air will allow daytime RH values to drop to the teens and even single digits through the weekend as well. Under this weak synoptic forcing environment, nighttime colder dense air will drain into the lower terrain with models showing a midslope thermal belt forming. Through the end of the weekend, temps will continue to warm with peak heating on Sunday as an upper-lvl low in the PacNW squeezes and enhances the high pressure into a skinny ridge over the forecast area. As we enter next week, global ensembles hint at SW flow at the 500mb level with above normal PWAT values and daytime high temperatures to start the week. DS

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1026 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR conditions expected overnight into Thu with isolated afternoon convection mainly over the higher terrain. CAMs continue to suggest a few windy showers possible near KCOS mid/late afternoon, and will carry prob30 for shra and gusty/erratic winds from 20z-01z here. Prevailing winds during the day Thu will be sely, before flow becomes erratic and gusty late afternoon and into the evening as convective outflows dominate.

At KALS, VFR conditions overnight into Thu, then isolated convection develops over the higher terrain surrounding the San Luis Valley after 18z. Still not confident that any -shra will make it into the terminal vicinity, but erratic/gusty outflows to 35 kts are possible in the 20z-01z timeframe.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.