textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High impact system remains on track to bring periods of heavy rain, the potential for flash flooding, strong northerly winds, and high mountain snow across southern Colorado.

- Warmer and Drier weather for Friday into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Current forecast remains on track, as the 1st wave of showers is exiting the southeast plains early this afternoon, with water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating modest southwest flow aloft across the region, as a broad upper low is translating across the Southern Great Basin at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating the rapidly weaken circulation of tropical system Polo moving onshore across northwestern Mexico, with anomalous subtropical moisture, PWATS of 1 to 1.8 inches (200-250 percent of normal), streaming across Old Mexico into the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains.

Latest ensemble and deterministic model data is in better agreement on evolution of this system, with increasing moist southerly aloft spreading across the Central Rockies, as the Southern Great Basin low ingests the remnant circulation of Polo as it translates across the Desert Southwest and into western New Mexico overnight. This will start to spread light to moderate precipitation, which is currently ongoing across New Mexico, northward across south central and southeast Colorado through the evening and overnight hours.

The upper low remains progged to translate north and east across north central New Mexico through the day Wednesday, with a strengthening H7 low and surface reflection pivoting across the Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening, as the vertically stacked system continues north and east into Central Kansas through the day Thursday. The expected track will spread moderate to heavy deformation banded precipitation across south central and southeast Colorado through the day Wednesday, with the focus of heavy precipitation shifting to the southeast mountains Wednesday afternoon and night, as wrap around moisture within the orographically enhanced north to northeast flow interacts with the higher terrain. This wrap around precipitation will continue to translate north and east across the southeast plains, through early Thursday morning, with all precipitation winding down and ending through Thursday afternoon. Total qpf tonight through Thursday morning are in the 1.5 to 3.5 inch range over the higher terrain, with the greatest amounts expected across the eastern slopes of Wet and Southern Sangre de Cristo mountains. Precipitation totals across the rest of the area look to range between 1 to 2 inches. However, there is concern for locally higher amounts across the southeast mountains, with the enhanced northeasterly mid level orographic flow leading to enhanced precipitation rates. The latest HREF data is indicating a 20-30 percent chance of rainfall over 4 inches. With this said, our highest expected impacts and concerns are across the southeast mountains, especially the Wet Mountains and Aspen Acres burn area, where enhanced precipitation rates could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. In addition to the heavy rain and flooding threat, developing gusty northerly winds of 25 to 45 mph, through the day tomorrow could lead to fallen trees and possible fallen power lines, with the saturated soils. Flash flooding will also remain a concern across the rest of the area, especially areas where soils are already saturated soils from previous rainfall. The warm Pacific system will keep light to moderate snow accumulations mainly at the peaks, though enhanced precipitation rates could possibly lower snow levels at times to between 10-11K feet through the period. Lastly, clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures well below seasonal levels mainly in the 60s across the plains tomorrow, with 40s and 50s across the higher terrain and in the 30s at the peaks. Not a lot of diurnal change with lows in the 50s across the plains, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, with slightly warmer temperatures in the offing on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

By Friday and into the weekend, warm and drier air within more westerly flow works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to warming and drying trend areawide through the weekend, with a slow increase in available leading to the potential for isolated afternoon convection over the higher terrain into early next week. With the drier air moving into the area, will need to watch for possible freezing overnight temperatures, especially across the high mountain valleys.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period, with MVFR to IFR conditions quickly developing tonight for all three TAF sites. A moisture rich storm system will be pushing across the region. This is expected to bring widespread rain showers starting tonight and persisting through much of tomorrow. This rain will likely drop visibility down to MVFR to near IFR conditions. Along with that, isolated instances of lightning and thunder will be possible once the rain starts at a TAF site. In addition to that, cloud cover will increase in coverage and lower through the night tonight, dropping to MVFR to IFR ceilings by tomorrow morning and lasting through the remainder of this TAF period. As for winds, lighter winds are anticipated at the start of this TAF period. With that said, winds are expected to increase tomorrow morning as the system passes over and wraps up, with the strongest winds for KCOS and KPUB given a closer proximity to the associated surface low.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for COZ067>071. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>089-093>099.