textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms into tonight. Flash flooding possible for the Aspen Acres burn scar, with a few severe storms possible along I-25.

- Daily showers and storms will continue over the mountains each day into next week. The eastern plains will be a bit warmer and much drier.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Yet another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms will continue forming across the higher terrain through mid-afternoon, pushing southeast into this evening. Latest CAMs and mesoanalysis, as of 130PM, show 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE across our eastern plains, with 25-30 knots or so of shear. Dewpoint depressions are on the large side, with dewpoints in the 40s-50s along I-25, and subsequently there's a good bit of DCAPE out there as well.

As storms shift to the southeast, they should intensify through the next several hours. Brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, along with gusty outflow to around 60 mph and marginally severe hail, mainly along I-25. Most storms won't make it too far east before dissipating, though once they gust out there's always the chance for some lingering storms from outflow/boundary interactions.

Storms will dissipate during the overnight hours, lingering longest over our far southern plains. Moving into Friday, the upper ridge flattens a bit over our region. Westerly flow aloft will still bring some monsoon moisture to the mountains, allowing for scattered afternoon storms. However, drier air will move onto the eastern plains, limiting precipitation potential anywhere east of I-25. Flash flooding will still be a concern over the Aspen Acres burn scar, but otherwise thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature, largely just producing breezy outflow winds, lightning, and brief periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will warm across the area, with mid-80s over the valleys and high- 90s over the eastern plains.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The upper ridge will continue slowly shifting east this weekend, with strengthening southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to warm, with the far eastern plains hitting the 100-degree mark in some places. Meanwhile, monsoon moisture will return the our mountains, allowing for increased coverage of afternoon showers/thunderstorms over the Continental Divide, with isolated to scattered storms over our eastern mountains. Mid-level steering flow will likely push a few storms onto the I-25 corridor as well, but lingering dry air and downsloping winds near the surface will keep most activity away from the eastern plains.

Late Sunday into early Monday, and upper wave will swing past to our north, sending a cold front south across the eastern plains. Activity over the plains remains limited, and temperatures behind the front only cool a few degrees in the latest guidance. The mountains will continue to see daily showers and storms. Looking further into next week, long-range models suggest a slightly drier pattern returning as the monsoon plume shifts a bit further to our west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR is mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Convection will form over the higher terrain by early afternoon, pushing southeast into tonight. Continued with PROB30s at KCOS and KPUB, given the scattered coverage of expected storms and outflow winds. For KALS, coverage will be persistent in the valley, but chances for precipitation at the terminal has lowered. Stuck with VCTS for a few hours late this afternoon. All convection should be away from the terminals by 03Z or so, with lighter winds and mid- level clouds returning overnight and into the day tomorrow.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086.