textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today over the high country, southern/southeast plains, and across the Pikes Peak region, with a few strong storms possible on our southeast plains.

- New fire starts from dry lightning may be possible today with high based convection and gusty outflow winds.

- High fire danger is expected Saturday and Sunday.

- A cooler and wetter pattern is expected for Monday into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Today and Tonight..

Flow weakens over the region today with a weak wave passing to our south. This feature will bring some mid-lvel moisture to portions of the high country, which may help to spark some isolated weak afternoon showers and thunderstorms. On the plains, weak upslope develops during the afternoon, which will also help to aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon, mainly over the Pikes Peak region and the southern plains. CAMs continue to paint some higher dewpoints and more instability (around 1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE) over our far southeastern plains, which may help to develop a few stronger storms over Baca and Prowers counties near sunset. The main risk with any storms that manage to develop in this area will be damaging winds, but small hail will also be possible. SPC currently has Baca and portions of Prowers outlooked for a marginal risk for severe storms tomorrow afternoon. On top of thunderstorm chances, fire starts from lightning may be possible across the region tomorrow, as convection will be generally high based. Inverted V forecast sounding profiles are showing nearly 1800 J/Kg of DCAPE on our southeast plains tomorrow. If this trend continues, not only will dry lightning be possible, but gusty outflows and dangerous fire behavior from erratic thunderstorm winds would be likely near any new starts. At this time, fire weather highlights are not expected for tomorrow given the lack of sustained 25 mph wind gusts expected in any given place, as winds are looking to be weak tomorrow outside of thunderstorm chances. Daytime highs will be just a few degrees cooler than yesterday for most locations, with highs ranging from 70s over mountain valleys, to 80s for the I-25 corridor, to 90s on our eastern plains.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Saturday..

Southwest flow aloft increases on Saturday as a trough digs into the Pacific northwest. This will increase winds over southeast Colorado enough to likely warrant fire weather highlights. For now, Saturday's Fire Weather Watch has been expanded to include Zone 222 Fremont County, and still includes the Sangres and all of the southern plains as well. The San Luis Valley will also be dry and windy, but fuels have been deemed non-critical, so highlights are not planned for this zone at this time. Temperatures remain warmer than normal for Saturday afternoon, with mountain valleys, the Pikes peak region, and the Raton Mesa climbing in to the 80s, and most of the rest of the plains warming into the 90s. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible as the trough digs into the Rockies, but best moisture sticks further north. For now, showers and thunderstorms look to remain mostly over the La Garitas, the central mountains, Fremont County, and the Pikes Peak region for Saturday. Storms over the Palmer Divide look to have the potential to be strong to severe on Saturday.

Sunday Onwards..

The Pacific Northwest trough pushes into the northern Rockies on Sunday, which keeps us in strong, dry, south-southwesterly flow aloft. All of our plains and eastern mountains are likely to see critical fire weather conditions on Sunday if current model trends continue. At this time, fuels are non-critical for our western mountains, and the central mountains and Pikes Peak region may have enough moisture fore better precip chances than fire weather concerns, but all zones with critical fuels south of Highway 50 will likely be dry enough to need fire weather highlights for Sunday ahead of the incoming trough. Models finally bring the cold front through late Sunday though, which helps to drop temperatures back heading into the beginning of next week. Better precip chances move in behind the front as well for Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday looking to be the coolest day of the period. For now, best precip chances remain over the Continental Divide and generally north of Highway 50 on the plains. Models warm us up slowly in northwest flow aloft through Wednesday and Thursday, with continued off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly over and near the higher terrain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected across KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.

Winds at KALS will mostly keep a westerly component, weakening overnight and picking up again Friday afternoon.

North winds have set in at KCOS, with some showers over the Palmer Divide. These showers have a very low-end chance of bringing some brief gusty outflow winds to COS for an hour or two this evening. Winds turn southeasterly on Friday, with more showers moving in around the end of this forecast period.

North winds a KPUB will shift a bit overnight, turning from NNE to NNW. By midday, winds will turn ESE, sustained around 10 knots through most of the period. Low chance for showers to move off the mountains Friday evening, but current confidence on coverage is low, so no specific mention of precip in this round of TAFs. Will update as needed.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ222-225-229-230-233-237.