textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and high elevation snow showers through this afternoon into the evening; isolated thunderstorms possible across the Palmer Divide into this evening.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions due to strong winds and very low humidity values across the region Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper trough across northwest Colorado early this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently developing across the Palmer Divide. A cold front has pushed south across the Plains with gusty north winds. This has helped keep temperatures a bit cooler, with 50s and lower 60s across the Plains.

Rest of today and tonight...the upper trough over northwest Colorado will slowly push eastward across Colorado through tonight. Models are in general agreement, with continued shower development across the Palmer Divide this afternoon, then pushing south along the Eastern Mountains and I-25 corridor into this evening. SBCAPE values are meager, 100-200 j/kg, which will likely be enough to produce at a few lightning strikes this afternoon and early evening, especially for the Palmer Divide. Low level flow is forecast to become more northeasterly this evening, and upslope flow will lead to shower development along the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25 corridor. Snow levels look to be high, mainly above 7 kft, and the Palmer Divide could see a dusting on elevated and grassy surfaces. Across the Mountains, periods of light snow will continue this afternoon into the overnight hours, before clearing late tonight as the upper system pulls away from the area. Snow totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass. On the Plains, a few snow flakes may mix in later this evening before precipitation comes to an end after midnight. Clearing conditions are anticipated late tonight into Wednesday morning across the region.

Wednesday...the upper system will depart to the east into the Central Plains, while shortwave upper ridging moves across Colorado. Temperatures will begin to rebound, with afternoon highs back into the 60s to near 70 across the Plains, and 50s to lower 60s across the San Luis Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Overall, models are in general agreement through much of the extended period, with differences in how they want to handle a pair of systems through the weekend.

Wednesday night through Friday...the upper ridge across the region will east into the Central Plains Wednesday night, as an upper trough takes shape across the Great Basin. This will turn flow southwesterly overnight, helping to keep temperatures on the mild side across the Plains, with 30s and 40s for lows. The coldest temperatures are forecast for the lower Arkansas River Valley. The San Luis Valley will fall into the teens and 20s.

By Thursday, flow aloft strengthens out of the southwest as the upper trough digs across Utah. Afternoon mixing will lead to strong winds across the Plains and San Luis Valley, with gusts 40 to 50 mph likely. This will combine with humidity values less than 10 percent to produce very dangerous fire weather conditions from late morning into the evening. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Afternoon highs will warm into the 70s with a few lower 80s out near the Kansas border. Along the Continental Divide, a few snow showers will are forecast to develop and persist through the day.

The lead upper vort max is forecast to track eastward across Colorado on Friday, with continued strong winds in the trough base across southern Colorado. This will lead to another day of dangerous fire weather conditions for areas on the Plains, mainly south of Highway 50, where humidity values will also be very low. Snow will continue along the Continental Divide throughout the day. Showers will spread eastward into the Palmer Divide Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler, and a few snow showers may be possible above 6500 ft over the Palmer Divide. Northwesterly flow across the area will help keep most of the Plains dry. Temperatures will range from the 40s over the Palmer Divide, to mid 60s near Springfield.

Saturday through Tuesday...models in agreement with the upper system splitting, with an upper low drifting southwest to off Baja Mexico, and broad longwave trough across the northern states. This will put southern Colorado under northwesterly flow over the weekend. Temperatures will begin to moderate, with 60s and 70s over the weekend for the lower elevations. Any snow showers across the Mountains look to come to an end by Saturday morning.

For early next week, much will depend on the Baja system getting caught in the flow, and lifting back northward. As it does so, southwesterly flow looks to increase, with elevated fire weather concerns returning to the Plains for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures would also be warm, with 70s and lower 80s returning to the Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft may also lead to a few snow showers across the San Juan Range for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 433 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

KCOS...

Rain showers (mixed with snow) will likely occur this evening at KCOS and bring generally MVFR conditions to the taf site. If any snow occurs, it will likely be on grassy areas, but if it comes down heavy enough it may accumulate on wind surfaces. The precip activity will likely last through 06 UTC this evening and then gradually end. Low cigs may linger towards sunrise. VFR tomorrow.

KPUB...

Rain showers this evening and cant rule out some MVFR cigs later this evening into the early AM hours WED. Low clouds will likely linger prior to sunrise with improving conditions thereafter.

KALS...

VFR next 24 hours. Some gusty winds at the beginning of this fcst period.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ222-224-226>237. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ229-230- 233.