textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather conditions continue through Friday and have upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for Friday and expanded it to include the I-25 corridor.

- A strong storm possible near the Kansas border on Thursday with gusty winds over 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters the primary risks.

- Smokey conditions with temperatures cresting over 100 degrees for the southeast plains both Thursday and Friday.

- continued hot but less wind for Saturday.

- Gradual moistening for Sunday into next week with better chances for showers and thunderstorms producing wetting rains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Persistent southwest flow aloft continues over the area for today, with the next shortwave across NV/UT translating across CO during the afternoon and evening. At the surface, easterly winds have brought 40 dew points back westward towards the I-25 corridor in Pueblo county. High res models push this moisture westward towards the mountains and the Aspen Acres fire area this morning, but it loses steam and is quick to sweep out of the area by late morning or early afternoon as southwesterly flow aloft mixes down into the lower slopes and portions of the I-25 corridor. Dew points fall into the single digits and teens across the mountains, valleys and adjacent plains, netting humidity levels down to 4 percent. With warming temperatures aloft, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as well, so critical fire weather conditions look like a good bet for for most of the area. There will be some wind lulls in streaky southwest to northeast oriented bands along the I-25 corridor this afternoon, but winds will increase this evening as the surface low deepens in response to the impulse ejecting across the mountains. So the greater critical fire weather impacts for some of the I-25 corridor could occur during the evening hours. Red Flag Warning will go until midnight, but even after midnight, humidity recovery will be poor due to enhanced westerly drainage winds.

Meanwhile, another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern plains this afternoon. The dry line makes a stronger push eastward, so think this will be more confined to eastern portions of Baca, Bent and Kiowa counties. Gusty winds of 60 mph or more and hail around the size of quarters will be the primary risks. Activity should push eastward into KS by 6-7 PM. -KT

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Another round of critical fire weather conditions can be expected for Friday for the mountains, valleys and adjacent I-25 corridor. The gradient aloft doesn't really weaken all that much, and temperatures will soar into the 100-105 degree range across the plains. Poor humidity recoveries Thursday night will set the stage for critically low humidity values to return by mid to late morning. Southwest winds will mix down once again with gusts in up to 30 to 35 mph. While conditions do look a little more marginal for wind gusts across portions of the I-25 corridor, once again, there will be bands of stronger winds spreading through the gaps and passes into the adjacent plains during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the very dry and hot conditions, it won't take much to enhance the winds above critical thresholds. Fire Weather Watches have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for Friday, and expanded to include all of the I-25 corridor to capture these areas. Again, these conditions appear to last well into the evening as a deepening surface low kicks eastward across the plains.

Upper ridge builds northward over CO on Saturday which should keep conditions hot and dry, but with lighter winds. Some spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible, but these should be more limited in coverage and duration to locations in and near the mountains.

Gradual moistening spreads in for Sunday through Wednesday as the ridge builds, and southerly flow advects moisture up from the south. This will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period, with the potential for wetting rains to occur where the stronger storms develop across the region. CAPE does not look terribly high, but with lighter flow aloft, storms could be slow moving allowing for locally heavy rains and even some flash flood potential for burn scars if they take a direct hit. Confidence in that scenario playing out is still low, and will depend on how high precipitable waters increase. GEFs is still the more moist solution, suggesting precipitable water could increase up to 140% of normal compared the more conservative Euro ensemble mean which shows up to 120% of normal. Time will tell, but it is a welcome pattern change which should take the edge off the 100 degree heat for the southeast plains and bring the potential for some appreciable moisture for some of our droughted areas. -KT

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light winds tonight will steadily become gustier late tomorrow morning into early afternoon as diurnal mixing becomes established, with frequent gusts between 20-25 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions with pockets of mid to high level clouds is anticipated. In addition, smoke and haze will likely be a concern again for KPUB and KCOS during the afternoon and evening hours, but especially KPUB given closer proximity to a wildfire in the Wet Mountains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Red Flag Warnings will go into affect from 10 AM through Midnight for both today and Friday for the mountains, valleys and adjacent plains. Gusty winds may see a slower onset for some areas along the I-25 corridor both days. But as weak systems cross the mountains, winds should increase into the evening hours necessitating longer duration Red Flag Warnings with greater impacts continuing into the evening periods. Poor overnight humidity recovery can be expected both nights, but especially Thursday night along the lower east slopes of the southeast mountains.

It will remain hot and dry for Saturday but winds will be lighter. Then increasing moisture will bring the chance for wetting rains Sunday into next week. There is disagreement within the long range models on the quality of this moisture return, which will determine precipitation amounts. For now, will need to keep a close eye on early next week as even small amounts of rainfall on burn scars can cause flash flooding. Confidence is still low at this point. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight for COZ220>230. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for COZ220>230.