textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry Monday, with critical fire weather conditions along the southern I-25 corridor.

- Passing system Tue/Wed brings snow to the mountains and scattered rain showers to lower elevations, precip amounts will be fairly light, under a quarter inch.

- Fire danger increases again Thursday, before a new weather systems brings cooler and potentially wetter weather back to the region Fri/Sat, though track and intensity details are still far from certain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1205 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Upper level jet and area of mid level moisture passing over the central mountains will combine to produce a few snow showers from Cottonwood Pass northward this morning, then activity fades away this afternoon as jet lifts north and weakens. Elsewhere, just some bouts of mid/high level clouds today, with a trend toward a bit more sun by late afternoon. Weak surge backing toward the mountains through the day will keep winds easterly from the I-25 corridor out onto the plains, which will shave a few degf from max temps versus Saturday's numbers, especially closer to the KS border. Tonight, weak west winds will keep east slopes above freezing, though overall most of the area will see a rather mild night with mins only in the 20s/30s, even across the high terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Upper trough swings into the Great Basin on Monday, bringing increasing winds and warmer temperatures back to most of southern Colorado by afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions return Mon afternoon to the southern I-25 corridor where winds will be strongest/humidity lowest, while from Pueblo northward, weak afternoon upslope flow may develop, keeping winds lighter and humidity just above the 15 percent threshold. Max temps will soar back well above seasonal averages, and a few locations south of the Arkansas River on the plains could approach 80f, while upper Ark Valley/San Luis Valley see readings near records in the 60s.

Upper trough then moves through central/northern Colorado Tue/Wed, as models continue to track the system too far north to generate widespread/significant precip over the southern half of the state. In fact, srn zones near the NM border may see at least elevated fire weather conditions for part of Tue, before cold front arrives late in the day. Scattered rain/mountain snow showers Tue afternoon and evening may be the best we can do for precip, with the greatest chance for measurable rain/snow north of Highway 50, where perhaps a tenth or two of QPF is possible, especially across the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. Still a hint of a quick burst of convective snow possible Tue evening over the Ramparts/Palmer Divide as system wraps up farther north and east, before activity ends Wed morning.

Wed and Thu look dry and warm, with indications of fairly widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions Thu afternoon from I-25 eastward across the plains, as winds aloft increase ahead of deepening wrn U.S. upper trough.

Pattern for Friday into the weekend still looks unsettled, as at least an initial wave from the deepening western U.S upper trough moves through the area, bringing a chance of rain/mountain snow showers Fri. Lessening chances for precip then expected Sat, as deterministic models and ensembles seem to be trending toward dropping the bulk of upper level energy well south into the Baja, eventually developing a cut-off low off the Mexican coast. Not liking this trend as it may keep chances for significant precip away from southern Colorado into early next week, though still plenty of time for solutions to change.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 423 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Winds across the eastern plains, affecting KCOS and KPUB, will generally be under 12 kts and easterly in direction. Lighter and diurnal winds forecast for KALS and the higher valleys. Abundant high level cloudiness expected across the region today, with some decrease after 03z.

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ229-230-233.