textproduct: Pueblo

KEY MESSAGES

- High fire danger is expected for portions of the area today and tomorrow.

- Shower and thunder chances continue today and tomorrow, with a few strong to severe storms possible mainly for areas north of Highway 50.

- A cold front comes through in part Sunday night, and then again on Monday night, ushering in better chances for showers and weak thunderstorms, light snow over the San Juans and the central mountains, and much cooler temperatures through the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

South to southwesterly winds have been increasing across the mountains, valleys and southern portions of the southeast plains early this afternoon with Red Flag conditions beginning achieved across portions of Chaffee, Huerfano and Las Animas county so far. Conditions are close elsewhere with PUB almost at 15% humidity even with an east wind. Meanwhile, thunderstorms have developed across the Pikes Peak region where mlCAPE of around 500 J/kg resides. Higher CAPE resides farther east across Kiowa/Prowers county where mlCAPE has increased to at least 1000 J/kg.

Southerly winds will spread northward through late afternoon and early evening as the surface low across southeast CO lifts northward in response to increasing southwest flow ahead of the developing western U.S. upper trough. Expect Red Flag conditions to expand northward through the afternoon and evening with no change planned to today's fire weather highlights. HRRR continues to show gusty southerly winds spreading as far north and east as Crowley county before convection to the north sends an outflow boundary southward later this evening. HREF also indicates convective initiation along the northward retreating boundary across the southeast plains with isolated strong to severe storms possible across Prowers and Kiowa counties possible this evening. Gusty winds will be the primary risk with these, though with HREF mean CAPE of up to 1500 J/kg across Kiowa and northeast Prowers county, can't rule out some 1 inch diameter hail if storms can develop and tap this higher instability before it mixes out to the northeast. Overall, isolated pops to the across northern areas into this evening should suffice before activity clears out by mid evening.

Dry cold front will make a push back southward into the southeast plains this evening and overnight, stalling out south of the Arkansas River by morning. Meanwhile, showers will increase again across the central mountains towards morning as the next lobe of energy ejects from the upper trough digging towards the Great Basin. Southwest winds increase for Sunday and HREF and NBM members paint highest probabilities of critical fire weather conditions spreading back northward into most of the southeast mountains and plains along and south of highway 50. Conditions get close across southern El Paso county but for now winds do not get strong enough for long enough for further expansions northward. Have upgraded Fire Weather Watches to Red Flag Warnings for Sunday. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible north of the frontal boundary where dew points stay in the 50s. For now this stays focused just north of our area, but can't rule out some marginal severe potential across the Palmer Divide and perhaps northern Kiowa county depending on how quickly storms initiate along the retreating frontal boundary. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary risk, but has HREF mean CAPE values are lower for Sunday given the faster timing of the retreating front, it looks more likely for severe thunderstorms to set up just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, Sunday will be the last hot day for most of the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Front makes a stronger push into the southeast plains Sunday night with low clouds and even some overnight showers possible across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Models are now deeper and stronger with the developing closed low across southern UT Sunday night which ejects to the northeast across western and northern CO on Monday. Showers will be ongoing along the Continental Divide Monday morning with snow across the higher peaks and passes. Some light accumulations of 1 to 4 inches will be possible. Meanwhile, strong upper jet ejects across southern CO on Monday with dry southwesterly winds mixing down across the San Luis Valley and southern portions of the southeast plains. Winds could hit 50+ mph across the San Luis Valley as the upper jet moves across, raising the concern for blowing dust, especially near plowed fields. For now gust potential appears to stay below high wind criteria, but it could get close for a brief time Monday with downward forcing behind the ejecting trough. Main concern though will be for critical fire weather conditions to spread northward across southern portions of the southeast plains during the day. Have issued another round of Fire Weather Watches hugging the southern border counties for now. There is some variability in the models with how far north the front lifts on Monday and have confined Fire Weather Watches to Las Animas and Baca counties for now. It is possible another tier of counties to the north may need to be added. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along/behind the front but there is quite a bit of CIN north of the front, so this may end up being more showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms along the front which weak quickly as they move northeastward over the more stable airmass behind the front. Could see a rain/snow mix down to 7000 feet at times across the Pikes Peak region by accumulations should stay confined to the higher terrain with around an inch of slush at times possible, maybe 2 across the Pikes Peak summit.

Tuesday and Wednesday will remain cool and unsettled for the southeast mountains and adjacent plains as upper troughs continue to swing through and southeasterly upslope flow keeps some low level moisture and across the plains. Drier and warmer weather returns for late week into the weekend, though we maintain at least some isolated pops for the mountains and adjacent plains both days. -KT

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Winds will continue to increase this afternoon from a south to southwesterly direction with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times at all three terminals. High based -TSRA will be possible near KCOS carrying an erratic gusty outflow wind risk, more than a rainfall risk at the terminal. Will include a Prob30 group for this. Elsewhere it will remain dry with winds decreasing this evening. A cold front will send a northerly wind shift into KCOS and KPUB between 03-04z. Gusts up to 20-25 kts will be possible along and behind the frontal passage this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will shift around from the south to southwest again by Sunday afternoon and become gusty. -KT

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will return on Sunday across most of the southeast mountains and plains and have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. Will need to monitor southern El Paso RHs closely as there could be an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions across southern sections of the zone, but the front will likely bring a return of higher humidities in the late afternoon.

Gusty winds will return to southern portions of the area on Monday with critical fire weather conditions most likely across Las Animas and Baca counties. Have hoisted another Fire Weather watch for this region, and further expansions to the north may be needed depending on how far north the frontal boundary mixes Monday afternoon. -KT

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222- 225-228>233-235-237. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ222-225- 228>237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ230-233-237.