textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE

Updated Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- The weather pattern for the rest of this week, and likely the beginning of next, will support continued dry weather with occasional periods of breezy to windy conditions.

- Near normal temperatures will be common through the end of work week before readings dip below seasonal levels over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Broad troughing encompassing much of the western tier of the CONUS will continue to migrate its way eastward toward the Front Range and Northern Plains through the day today. During its progression, the southern most extend of this system will brush past Arizona, keeping our regional pressure gradient relatively enhanced after a fairly windy day for parts of the region yesterday. The focus for breezy conditions today will be over the AZ high terrain and parts of SE California, but gusts should be noticeable lower than what was observed Tuesday with peak values ranging around 20-25 mph, with some isolated higher gusts for the typical wind prone spots of Imperial County. The presence of climatologically normal heights aloft will result in afternoon temperatures hovering right around what is typical for this point in April, which translates to lower desert highs in the middle to upper 80s. A few spots, mainly across South-Central Arizona, may reach into the 90s, with Phoenix having a 50% chance of reaching that mark.

Through the remainder of the work week, zonal flow is expected to stretch across the Desert Southwest, leading a continuation of dry and generally quiet conditions. However, parts of the region will not be completely done with at least some marginally breezy conditions through this timeframe as one system exits but another approaches, keeping our regional pressure gradient squeezed. Strongest gusts will once again be focused over higher terrain areas of Arizona and the familiar breezy spots of SE California. Day-to- day high temperatures will remain mostly steady heading into Thursday before increasing slightly for Friday, as many lower desert locations will rebound back into the lower 90s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/

Large scale troughing is expected to persist across the Eastern Pacific and the Western U.S. over the weekend and likely for much if not all of next week. However, very little will change for our region as the track of the upcoming weather systems should continue to completely miss or at most just brush across western and northern portions our region. The next weather system is slated to move through central and southern California Saturday before moving across northern Arizona and the Great Basin on Sunday. The main impact will be another round of breezy to windy conditions creating another risk for elevated fire weather. Temperatures will also dip again over the weekend with NBM/WPC guidance showing lower desert highs as cool as the upper 70s/lower 80s on Sunday. Once this system exits late Sunday, we should get another period of weak ridging or mostly zonal flow early next week pushing temperatures back into the normal range. The wave train of dry weather systems should persist into the latter half of next week with indications of another system around next Wednesday and/or Thursday.

AVIATION

Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No significant weather concerns will exist through Thursday night under occasional high cirrus decks. Confidence remains very good that W/SW winds will persist longer into the overnight than usual before finally shifting to a light easterly. Directions should shift back to W/SW late Thursday morning with speeds somewhat weaker than the past few days.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through Thursday night under periods of high cirrus decks. Confidence remains very good that W/NW winds will persist at KIPL with speeds weaker and gusts more limited than the past couple days. Winds at KBLH should veer from SW to NW overnight though may incur some variability through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

A progressive weather pattern with multiple disturbances passing north of the region will result in breezy dry conditions and periods of elevated fire weather through the weekend. Relative humidity is not expected to fluctuate much, bottoming out around 8-15% each afternoon. Overnight recoveries will remain poor to fair. Breezy conditions today will promote elevated fire weather conditions across the eastern districts with lighter winds for Thursday and Friday. Another round of breezy to windy conditions Saturday is likely to bring elevated fire weather conditions for the bulk of the area.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.