textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE

Updated Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend will take place this week with temperatures rebounding back toward near and above normal levels.

- Persistent high pressure will translate to dry and tranquil conditions through at least the first few days of February.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Afternoon visible satellite imagery and RAP 500mb analysis reveals the early stages of a ridge building over the western CONUS. Meanwhile, clearing skies has revealed a vast area of heavy snowfall, stretching from the Rockies all the way to New England states. The systems that brought all that winter weather, along with brutally cold temperatures for a lot of the country, was also responsible for some cooler and somewhat wet conditions for the Desert Southwest. However, with that previously mentioned high present overhead, quiet and tranquil weather, along with a warming trend, will be the norm as we start this new week. Afternoon highs for the lower deserts will be right around normal today with readings in the middle to upper 60s. By Tuesday, temperatures will tick up a bit with values ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s as the ridge axis shifts towards the Great Basin and regional heights aloft continue to increase.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through the rest of the workweek, a progressive pattern will continue as a series of shortwave troughs pass well north of the region. These troughs will have little to no affect on the weather in our forecast area aside from bringing a few passing high clouds. Temperatures will continue to warm by a couple degrees each consecutive day with highs across the lower deserts pushing into the mid 70s by the middle of this week. Deterministic guidance and ensemble members are in agreement that a stronger area of high pressure will eventually settle into the Western CONUS by this weekend, resulting in a return of well above normal temperatures. Latest NBM deterministic guidance shows forecast highs reaching the upper 70s across the lower deserts by Friday and persisting into the weekend. Depending on the strength of the upper-lvl ridge, highs in the Lower 80s are not out of the question this weekend which are now being indicated by the NBM 75th percentile for Phoenix from Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION

Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No weather concerns will exist through Tuesday night as clearing skies are eventually replaced with renewed cirrus decks late in the period. Confidence is good that east winds will briefly become W/NW around sunset before reverting to an east component Tuesday mid/late evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather issues will exist through Tuesday night under clear skies filling back with high cirrus decks late in the period. Winds will generally favor a north component at KBLH, however may incur variability Tuesday late morning/early afternoon. W/NW winds will be preferred at KIPL, however extended periods of nearly calm conditions will be common.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will prevail through at least the rest of this week into this weekend, with daily MinRH values around 10-25% across all districts. Overnight humidity recoveries will be around 35-55% in most populated and agricultural areas. Elevated easterly winds winds are expected today and tomorrow across the higher terrain areas of southcentral AZ, with gusts up to 20-30 mph possible. Otherwise, expect light and diurnally driven winds. Temperatures will be near normal to begin the workweek, but are expected to warm well above normal by the second half of the week into this weekend.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.