textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE

06Z Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong high pressure across the region will persist through at least early next week leading to dry conditions and temperatures hovering around 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

- A slight cooling trend is anticipated during the latter half of next week with temperatures falling to within a few degrees of normal.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Yet another day with a Rex block pattern over the Eastern Pacific with the center of the ridge positioned off the coast of Washington and into the Gulf of Alaska with the ridge extending along the entire coastline. To our east a large trough has been digging across the Plains over the past few days, which has helped our region's H5 heights lower slightly, resulting in temperatures cooling ever so slightly (1-2 degrees). This pattern is expected to morph into an Omega block by late tonight into Sunday morning. Afternoon high temperatures today through Monday will generally be between 73-77 degrees for the lower deserts. Starting Sunday a small change in the monotonous weather will be seen with an increase in cloud coverage passing over the entire region through Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The weather pattern for the bulk of next week will essentially remain the same with a blocking ridge either over the Western U.S. or just off the West coast. The ridge is currently forecast to persist across our region through at least the middle of next week, while a cut-off low takes shape off the coast of California. Dry conditions will prevail across our region at least through next Thursday or Friday due to the high pressure ridge, while temperatures very slowly drift lower. Forecast highs are currently shown to lower into the lower 70s late next week and potentially a bit lower thereafter depending on what happens with the cut-off low. Ensemble guidance is still quite divided with the cut-off low, but it's not out of the question to eventually have some rain chances by next weekend.

AVIATION

Updated at 0522Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds will tend to follow their diurnal tendencies with speeds generally aob 6 kt. Extended periods of light and variable to calm conditions are also expected. The overall synoptic pattern is conducive to KPHX switching to light SW'rly winds briefly in the morning. However, confidence in this shift is low, so have gone with VRB in the TAF for now. Clear skies will continue through tomorrow morning with FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds moving in for the afternoon and evening hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours. Current NW'rly winds at KBLH will go W'rly during the overnight hours, then back NW'rly tomorrow afternoon. At KIPL, current W'rly winds will go NW'rly by the late morning hours. Wind speeds at both terminals, will be aob 6 kt through the TAF period. FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds will continue through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to bring above normal temperatures and dry conditions into early next week. Daily MinRH values will mainly fall between 15-20% with overnight recoveries of 30-50%. Expect winds to be light across the majority of the lower deserts with some occasional breeziness across the Lower CO River Valley and over the Arizona high terrain. High pressure should persist through the bulk of next week with temperatures slowly drop closer to normal and humidities rising slightly.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.