textproduct: NWS Phoenix

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through next week with temperature warming from near normal to above normal levels.

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas including southern Gila County tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

We saw a cool start to the day as the area saw some of the coldest temperatures this season. Morning lows across the higher terrain registered in the low 30s while lower desert locales ranged anywhere from the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. This is thanks to the cooler, drier air that has been brought in with the passage of yesterday's trough, which is seen quickly exiting to the east today. While the shortwave trough has now exited well to the east of the region, the Southwest remains under the influence of longwave troughing that will help to keep cooler temperatures in place.

Temperatures for the end of the workweek will remain near to slightly below normal as lower desert highs top out in the mid to upper 60s today and tomorrow and upper 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain. Chilly morning temperatures will continue Friday morning as lows once again dip near to below freezing across portions of southern Gila County. Given this, a Freeze Warning is once again in effect for these areas Friday morning. Across the lower deserts, morning lows will range between the upper 30s to low 40s, while a few sheltered locations may dip into the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/

This weekend the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will move eastward, but eventually stall just off the west coast. This high pressure system will hangout just off the coast and strengthen through the middle of next week. While the ridge won't be centered over the Desert Southwest, we will be under the influence of the eastern part of the high pressure. This will result in warming temperatures and continued dry and tranquil weather conditions, through at least the middle of next week.

H5 heights over the Desert Southwest look to rise into a 576-581 dm range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm sometime around the middle of next week. This will result in temperatures going above normal during the weekend and rising to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures this weekend will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts and range from the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain. High temperatures will then continue to warm through the first half of next week rising to the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts and will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain by the middle of next week. Morning low temperatures will also be 3-6 degrees above normal by the middle of next week (lower deserts: upper 40s to low 50s, higher terrain: upper 30s to mid 40s).

AVIATION

Updated at 1710Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Friday afternoon under periods of high cirrus decks. Confidence is very good that winds around the Phoenix metro will only briefly switch to a westerly component closer to sunset, then revert back to an easterly direction mid/late evening. Across SE California, a light W/NW trajectory will be favored. Extended periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire region.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region through next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today and tomorrow, warming above normal this weekend, and then going 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds will be light and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-35% much of the time, with good to very good overnight recoveries.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ556-560-562.

CA...None.