textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend before readings warm back closer to the seasonal average for the bulk of next week.

- Aside from a few light showers today, dry and tranquil weather conditions will grace the region through the middle of next week.

- A return to inclement weather with increased rainfall chances is possible towards the end of next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The cut off low system is quickly moving through the lower deserts, with the core of the low now over Maricopa County and is expected to lift to the N/NE into northern AZ and over the Four Corners region by Sunday afternoon, and exiting by Monday. As this system passes very localized areas across Maricopa and Gila County can expect a few isolated showers through the afternoon, with a few locations in the metro already experiencing sprinkles over them, activity is then expected to clear and lift north of the CWA by late this afternoon. For the higher terrain areas, there also remains a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm developing this afternoon. By Sunday, dry conditions are expected under mostly clear skies, thanks to H5 heights increasing to between 576-579 dam, resulting in afternoon high temperatures increasing 2-3 degrees from today. This warming trend will continue into the beginning of the week, but thankfully over the weekend the region will remain near to slight below normal, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Gradually warming temperatures and overall tranquil weather is expected through at least the first half of the next workweek with quasi-zonal flow in the wake of the weekend low. An increase in H5 heights up to 579-582 dam by Monday will support the gradual warming of temperatures, with afternoon highs reaching the middle 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the lower deserts, which is right around normal for the time of year. Dry mostly clear skies will prevail under this pattern as well. Model uncertainty grows later next week as there are hints at some moisture return into the region from the southeast, then a potential atmospheric river approaching by next weekend. Either, or both of these moisture sources may eventually help to bring a return to rain chances at some point before the end of the month, but it is too early to have a good idea on timing and/or placement for any weather feature this far in advance.

AVIATION

Updated at 2325Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 7 kts along with periods of light variability to even calm conditions. SCT clouds between 7-10 kft will give way to mostly clear skies after sunset.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally fluctuate between the west to north with extended periods of light variability to even calm conditions. Generally clear skies can be expected through early Sunday afternoon before some high cirrus cloud decks move in by the late afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

A low pressure system will linger across the region this weekend bringing light shower chances this afternoon, but little to no wetting rainfall is expected. Minimum humidity levels will fall into a 25-50% range this afternoon and then dry heading into the start of the workweek, with minimum humidity falling closer to 15-35%. Overnight recoveries will remain good at 45-70% across the area. Overall quiet weather conditions are forecast Sunday through at least the first half of next week, with temperatures rebounding back into the normal range by Monday, and with light winds each day favoring typical diurnal tendencies. A shift in the weather pattern late next week and into next week may bring about cooler, wetter, and breezier conditions.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.