textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE

00Z Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies will prevail through the middle of next week. - Periods of breezy winds are expected this afternoon through this weekend and potentially again during the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Dry conditions and high pressure with well above normal temperatures are expected through this weekend. Satellite and objective analysis shows high pressure expanding over the Southwest U.S. early this afternoon, with 580-584dam H5 heights over AZ and southeast CA. These magnitude H5 heights are near record level for the end of January. The lower level thermal profile will be a tad slower to respond, but will warm through this weekend with 850mb temps pushing 14-16C by Sunday. This will result in surface temperatures warming a few degrees each day. Noontime temperatures today were around 2-5 degrees warmer than the same time yesterday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts this afternoon under clear skies and with some northerly breeziness. Highs warm another degree or two for Saturday and then peak Sunday with lower desert highs forecast to reach the low 80s in many lower desert communities. Latest forecast high for Phoenix Sunday is 82 degrees, which is 1 degree short of the 83 degree daily record set in 2003. Low 80s this time of year will lead to Minor HeatRisk

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/

Next week's weather looks to be much of the same with deep troughing remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS and ridging over the west. A slight dip in heights is expected Sunday night and Monday, while high clouds will continue to stream across the region. These factors should keep most areas from reaching 80 degrees on Monday, but as clouds decrease on Tuesday forecast highs show many locations likely reaching 80 degrees again across southeast California, Lower CO River Valley, and Phoenix.

A Rex block will also develop by the middle of next week with an anomalously strong upper level ridge developing over the bulk of the Western U.S., while a cut-off low forms just west of Baja. Ensemble guidance has been somewhat trending away from bringing the cut-off low into our region late next week or next weekend, but there is still too much uncertainty to discount it impacting our region at some point. Since guidance is now leaning more toward the ridge being fully in place later next week, forecast temperatures are trending upward. The NBM has nudged forecast highs up by around four degrees from Wednesday onward with the potential for upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Some spread is still seen in the NBM temperature guidance, but it's less then yesterday. Even if the cut-off low or its eventual remnants make its way near or into our region, the small amount of forecast moisture advection and the lack of forcing should strongly limit any rain chances next Friday into Saturday. Models also show some potential for a second cut-off low developing to our west by next Sunday or early in the following week. This second feature is showing more positive signs than the Friday/Saturday system for rain potential. The persistent blocking pattern should keep temperatures well above normal through all of next week.

AVIATION

Updated at 2330Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns under mostly clear skies are anticipated through the period. Winds will shift out of the W-NW this evening for about 3-4 hours until returning out of the east late tonight. Speeds should remain aob 6 kts through tonight, but may become more elevated out of the E-SE after sunrise Saturday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will shift from northerly to westerly this evening with speeds remaining aob 7 kts. At KBLH, winds will fluctuate between the northwesterly to northerly with gusts diminishing after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather conditions will prevail through the next week, with MinRH values in the 10-20% range most afternoons. There will be a subtle moisture increase late this weekend into Monday, but MinRH values only increase to 20-25% at best. Overnight recoveries will remain poor to fair with humidities mostly between 30-55%. Breezy northerly winds will continue this afternoon, mainly across the Lower CO River Valley, with 20-30 mph gusts. Gusty easterly winds then shift to eastern districts Saturday and Sunday. The weather pattern will again support breezy daytime conditions mid to late next week. Temperatures will warm further over the weekend with lower desert highs likely topping 80 degrees in many locations.

CLIMATE

Phoenix, AZ Daily Record High Temperatures.

2/1 83 (2003) 2/2 82 (2025) 2/3 86 (2025) 2/4 86 (2025) 2/5 87 (1963)

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.