textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE

Updated Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding of a few area streams and rivers will persist the next couple days while some major waterways like the Salt River will continue to experience flooding through the week due to dam releases. - Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will continue the next several days with lower desert highs warming into upper 70s to middle 80s by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals the trough of low pressure that passed through our region yesterday is now entering the Midwest while a shortwave ridge builds behind this feature over the West Coast. Winds will be somewhat breezy this afternoon on the backside of the departing trough, mainly along the lower Colorado River Valley where gusts could reach 20-25 mph at times. However, much of the region will experience light winds and clear skies through the rest of this afternoon with highs reaching the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts. Winds will greatly diminish tonight after sunset, becoming very light and calm across the area. With clear skies and light winds along with residual sfc moisture left over from yesterday's rain event, there is a chance that patchy fog could develop in low lying elevations early Tuesday morning. The most likely location for fog development will be N Pinal County and the Imperial Valley.

The aforementioned shortwave ridge will pass over the forecast area tomorrow between the departing upper level trough and another Pacific low. Model guidance keeps this next Pacific low on a west- east trajectory through UT and CO on Wednesday. Just about all this transient low will do to the local area is suppress heights and keep temperatures from warming more quickly. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will rise by a few degrees area-wide, but still remain around 5 degrees below normal, with lower desert communities reaching the middle low to mid 70s. Morning temperatures the next few days will be seasonally cool, mostly in the 50s across the lower deserts and 40s in higher elevation communities and some of the typically cooler lower desert valley spots.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The long term forecast remains dry and seasonal. There is now much better confidence in the late week and weekend forecast, which favors ridging building in across the West and a weak cutoff low forming over the Pacific west of Baja California. Weak troughing looks to drag across the local area Friday into Saturday ahead of the building ridge. Previous forecasts supported slight rain chances with this trough, but this trough now looks completely dry and latest NBM PoPs are 5% or less across the region. These are also the only PoPs in the 7-day forecast. Plenty of time to dry out fallowing all the rain. Temperatures during the second half of the week will remain steady near to slightly below normal and then heading into the weekend temperatures are likely to trend warmer as the ridging builds into the west. Most lower deserts may see high temperatures return to the low and possibly even mid 80s.

AVIATION

Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather concerns will exist through Tuesday evening under periods of passing high cirrus. Confidence is good that light east winds will develop across the Phoenix area through Tuesday afternoon before attempting to become W/NW by sunset. However, directions may only become variable with speeds hovering under 8kt before reverting back to easterly. Across SE California, light W/NW winds will be preferred through the period with prolonged periods of light and variable winds common.

FIRE WEATHER

Lingering floodwater runoff in area creeks, streams, and rivers is likely to continue through tonight. Otherwise, rain has ended and dry seasonal conditions can be expected through the next 7 days. Saturated grounds will help keep surface humidity levels somewhat elevated. Afternoon minimum RHs today will be around 50-60% across AZ and 25-35% across southeast CA. Despite gradual drying through the week, the minimum RHs will only fall to around 35-45% across AZ and 20-30% across southeast CA. Overnight recoveries will remain good through the week, with around 60-80% max RHs most nights. Winds through the next 7 days will mostly follow typical diurnal trends with light speeds and modest afternoon upslope gusts. Some breezier north winds may develop along the lower Colorado River Valley at times, but with only minor gusts up to 20-25 mph forecast at this time.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.