textproduct: NWS Phoenix

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will prevail through the week as temperatures rise into an above normal range.

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/

Large scale, high amplitude Rex blocking continues to dominate the East Pacific and western Conus with an intensifying anti-cyclone centered over northern California while weaker troughing resides across northern Mexico. This pattern will maintain strong sfc high pressure over the Great Basin with heightened northeast winds across much of the forecast area, however the strongest gradient and thermal influence has shifted into southern California resulting in a weak Santa Ana event west of the forecast area. Over the next 48 hours, H5 heights in a 576-579dm range will rise closer to a 580- 583dm range forcing a warming trend with temperatures 6F-10F above normal, yet still likely a few degrees short of daily records.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/

Ensemble members are in good agreement that some form of the western Conus blocking pattern (whether it be a Rex or omega block) will hold through the weekend. During this time frame, strong high pressure will be maintained with temperatures hovering above normal throughout the week. The warmest temperatures are forecasted towards the end of the week, coinciding with the high pressure near its climatological max. Temperatures will be 7-10 degrees above mid of January normals. Over the weekend, the high pressure across the region may retrograde slightly into the NW coastline or northeast Pacific, however ridging will still be present with only a few degrees of potential cooling due to the relaxation of H5 heights. Dry conditions will also continue through the weekend.

AVIATION

Updated at 2331Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather risks through Tuesday. E'rly wind gusts are subsiding this evening and winds through the rest of the TAF period will be notably lighter. East winds will still prevail for much of Tuesday, with modest confidence of a late westerly wind shift developing. Skies will clear tonight and remain clear through Tuesday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather risks through Tuesday with near persistence wind conditions. Both terminals will continue to favor a N/NW'rly component during the late-morning and afternoon hours before backing to westerly overnight and becoming calm at times. High clouds will clear tonight and skies will remain clear through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and will gradually warm through the workweek. Temperatures will go well above normal by the middle of this coming week. MinRH values of 15-30% and overnight recoveries of 40-70% will continue through this coming week. Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue today. The highest gusts will be across the eastern districts, especially ridgetops, where gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely through the early afternoon. Wind speeds will return to more seasonable levels this evening and continue into next week. Winds will maintain a northeasterly to easterly prevailing direction today and possibly into early next week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.