textproduct: NWS Phoenix

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist across the region with slightly above normal temperatures through this weekend.

- A fast moving and mostly dry weather system will skirt past the area to the north early Monday dropping temperatures back into the normal range, lasting through the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The weather pattern over the next few days will become a bit fractured with a ridge along the West Coast pushing one weak disturbance southeastward from the Pacific Northwest through the Four Corners area and another directly south just off the West Coast. Our region will remain somewhat under weak ridging through Saturday, but that will shift toward broad troughing Sunday into Monday as the system passes by to our north. Weather conditions today and through the weekend will be quite pleasant with generally clear skies and highs in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts, or around five degrees above normal. As the weak disturbance enters the Great Basin later on Sunday, we should eventually see a period of higher level clouds move into our area by Sunday evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Next week is trending more toward less active weather than originally forecast by the models. The first disturbance should bypass our area completely to the north on Monday bringing only a period of breezy conditions across the Lower CO River Valley and knocking down daytime highs into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, or within the normal range for early December. The other weather system off the West Coast should basically be a non-factor for our region as it becomes mostly cut off from the main flow and will eventually dissipate or somewhat get absorbed by a potential system dropping down from the northwest during the middle part of next week. There is still a good deal of model uncertainty with the mid to late week weather system as it could just be another progressive system or it may try to cut off and retrograde westward to off the coast of southern California. Models over the past couple of days have been trending drier with this system, but they still show modest precipitation chances (20-40%) centered on Wednesday night/early Thursday. If the system ends up being a fast mover it likely won't amount to much more than high terrain precip chances, but if it cuts off and doesn't stray too far to the west it could bring more widespread chances. We likely will not know which solution will win out until early next week.

AVIATION

Updated at 0835Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather issues are expected through the TAF period. For the Phoenix Metro terminals, winds will favor an easterly direction through the morning, with a west shift in the afternoon. For the western terminals, KIPL will keep westerly winds, while KBLH mostly NW with periods of VRB. Any lingering high clouds should clear out by mid morning today.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and tranquil weather conditions are now expected to persist into early next week despite a weak weather system passing just to the north of the area on Monday. Expect slightly above normal temperatures through Sunday before cooling into the normal range starting Monday. Daily MinRHs will continue to range from 25-35% through early next week with good to very good overnight recoveries of 60-80%. Winds will overall remain light through the period except for a period of northerly breezy conditions across the Lower CO River Valley on Monday.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.