textproduct: NWS Phoenix

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent high pressure will lead to dry and tranquil conditions through early next week with near zero rain chances.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of the week and the upcoming weekend, with lower desert highs flirting with 80 degrees by this weekend.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Current objective analysis shows a high amplitude ridge centered from the Desert Southwest northward into the Canadian Rockies with 500 mb height fields over our region near 580dm. This will continue to produce quiet weather with afternoon high temperatures later today a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday as readings top out in the mid 70s across most of the lower desert locations. A shortwave trough moving onshore through the Pacific Northwest will migrate through the Intermountain West later today and then through the Central Plains on Thursday. This feature will not have any sensible weather impacts across our region other than produce some breezy conditions across the Lower Colorado River Valley and the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix Thursday and Friday. By Friday, another high amplitude ridge will build across the west coast, continuing the warming trend as afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts, with areas along the Imperial Valley flirting with 80 degrees.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Model guidance is in excellent agreement that the overall ridge axis over the west coast will move eastward over the weekend, with 500 mb height fields rising above 580dm across the region. This will translate to afternoon high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday flirting with 80 degrees across most of the lower desert communities, which would be a good 8-10 degrees above normal. Heading into early next week, the ridge axis will shift eastward and be replaced by a shortwave trough. This overall change will likely result in slightly cooler temperatures as afternoon highs retreat into the mid to upper 70s along with dry and tranquil continuing.

AVIATION

Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather concerns will exist through Wednesday night under periodically thick cirrus decks. Wind directions will primary hold an easterly component, however a few hours of a light west or variable direction will be common during the late afternoon/early evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather concerns will exist through Wednesday night under occasionally thick cirrus decks. Winds will generally oscillate between a west and north component with speeds under 12kt. Extended periods of near calm conditions will be common.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AZ...None. CA...None.