textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

The next seven days are highlighted by above normal temperatures with low-level onshore flow remaining in place. Mainly dry weather will continue through the weekend, aside from late Wednesday into Thursday when chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms increase with an approaching upper level low.

LONG TERM...Friday through Sunday night

Confidence in the forecast actually increases Friday into the weekend compared to the Wednesday night and Thursday timeframe, despite total model spread for temperatures remaining large. Overall, model ensembles are in good agreement for dry and warm conditions Friday through the upcoming weekend with continued low-level onshore flow and southwest flow aloft. The main uncertainty in the long term forecast is exact high temperatures for inland valleys, which could range anywhere from the lower 80s to near 100 degrees. The most likely outcome is for highs somewhere in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Chances for highs above 90 degrees peak on Sunday at 40-60% for inland valleys, except 30-40% over the Cowlitz Valley and lower Columbia. Chances for highs of 100 degrees or warmer range between 5-15%. Probabilities for a Major HeatRisk or higher are also low, ranging between 5-20%. This suggests extreme heat with significant heat-related impacts are unlikely to occur. It is also worth noting the coast would remain much cooler than inland areas regardless of the outcome due to light onshore winds. Beyond the seven day forecast, it is possible the warm and dry conditions will persist into early next week as probabilistic guidance is similar on Monday when compared to Sunday. -23

AVIATION

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected for a majority of the TAF period. Light north to northwest winds 5-10 kt expected. Winds along the coast could gust up to 20-25 mph at times through 03z Tue. There's a chance of shallow MVFR/IFR stratus along the coast overnight into Tuesday morning: 20-50% chance anytime between 09-16z Tue at KONP and 20-30% chance anytime between 12-15z at KAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with mostly clear skies and northwesterly winds around 5-8 kt. -03

MARINE

Benign conditions with a typical summertime pattern expected through the week. Northerly winds 10-15 kt expected with afternoon gusts reaching to around 20 kt each day. Seas could be choppy at times with heights mainly in the 4-6 foot range but could see some 7 foot seas at 8-10 seconds. Isolated steep and hazardous seas but not enough to issue a Small Craft Advisory (SCA).

A SCA is in effect from 2AM to 9AM Tuesday morning for the Columbia River Bar for rough seas due to a very strong ebb current leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft. -19/03

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.