textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Cool and wet to hot and dry. This is a simple, concise, but accurate summation of the weather conditions to come as we progresses through the next 5-7 days and beyond. Today is shaping up to be rather soggy and cool, especially by June standards, as steady stratiform rain spreads over western Oregon and southwest Washington before showers linger into the middle of the week. Anticipate breezy south to southwest winds today and tonight as well with wind gusts as high as 30-45 mph. While the cooler/wetter first portion of the week is unusually spring-like, we have to pay the proverbial piper at some point, and it appears he's coming to collect late week into the weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a multi-day heat event in the June 13-16 timeframe - a stark contrast to how this week begins. Don't get caught off guard and start preparing for heat related impacts, you'll thank yourself later.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

And then it gets hot. The long term forecast continues to be highlighted by a prolonged stretch of dry conditions with moderate to high confidence in a prolonged multi-day heat wave beginning on Saturday. Before the heat truly kicks in, expect rather pleasant weather on Thursday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s, except 60s at the coast - enjoy. From Friday onward into early next week, models and their ensembles show an upper level ridge amplifying over the far northeast Pacific, with some lingering uncertainty regarding exactly how far east the ridge axis will move. Despite the uncertainty with the location of the ridge axis, confidence is high temperatures will be heating up significantly June 13-15. This is when the LREF mean shows 500 mb heights near the climatological 97-98th percentile and the NBM shows a 60-90% chance for high temperatures above 90 degrees for inland valleys and less than a 10% chance at the coast. In fact the latest NBM shows a 20-40% chance for highs at or above 100 degrees June 14-15 for inland valleys, suggesting a major heat wave is certainly within the realm of possibility. In addition, overnight lows in the mid or even upper 60s will offer minimal overnight relief for those without any means of cooling. As such, probabilities for a Moderate HeatRisk or higher peak near 80-95% June 14-15, with a 40-65% chance for a Major HeatRisk or higher. Note the highest probabilities are over the greater Portland/Vancouver metro. Anyone who is sensitive to heat or those who have outdoor plans should pay attention to the forecast over the coming days and be prepared for potential extreme heat. Those planning on swimming in rivers or lakes to cool off should be mindful of cold water temperatures and swift currents, which can become life threatening. -99/23

AVIATION

Early this morning VFR CIGs/VIS persist as clouds increase ahead of an approaching frontal system, however, expect flight conditions to degrade as we go through the day. Rain likely arrives from the west by 12-16z this morning while CIGs lower to MVFR a few hours after rain begins, around 16-21z along the coast and 19-22z inland. Chances for IFR conditions increase along the coast after 19-22z as well. Winds out of the south increase ahead and then along the front with gusts of 25-35 kts along the coast by 18-20z and 25-30 kts inland by 00-04z Tue. Isolated gusts at inland sites near 35 knots are possible in the 00-04z timeframe. Steadier rain then breaks to showers this evening with lingering showers at times overnight while winds turn a touch more westerly.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions are currently in place with increasing high clouds from our next frontal system. Expect cigs to become MVFR by 19-22z today, continuing at 1.5-2kft through the rest of the TAF period. South winds increase after 21-23z to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kts. -99

MARINE

Our next impactful weather disturbance rapidly approaches early this morning slated to bring elevated winds and seas in addition to a period of widespread rainfall. Southerly winds are expected noticeable increase this morning, peaking midday into the afternoon hours with high confidence in widespread 30-35 knot gusts. That said, even stronger gusts can be expected south of Cape Falcon where gale-force gusts as high as 40-45 knots are likely (70-80%). North of this point gusts of this magnitude can't be ruled out but appear more isolated in nature. Thus, a Gale Warning was issued for the inner and outer waters south of Cape Falcon through 1900 today. A fresh westerly swell and wind waves allow seas to build from 4-5 ft this afternoon to 7-9 ft at 8-9 seconds by this afternoon and evening with a continued dominant westerly swell. While southerly winds eventually subside behind the frontal passage this evening, west-northwesterly winds the wake of this feature are also expected to gust near 20-25 knot while seas remain relatively steep, so Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Tuesday evening after which point lingering west-northwest winds drop into the 10-20 knot range and square seas settle slightly.

Then on Wednesday into Wednesday night west-northwest winds steadily turn more northerly as high pressure builds offshore - a return to a more summer-like pattern. Strengthening northerlies will see diurnal peaks in the afternoon each day Thursday through at least Saturday and Sunday which could necessitate additional Small Craft Advisories for gusts near 25 kt. Seas through this period look to remain near 5-7 ft with a west-northwest swell at 9-11 seconds. -99

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ252-253. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ252-253-272-273. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252-253. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ272- 273. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening for PZZ272-273.