textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Broad high pressure over the region will maintain generally dry conditions through the next several days. An upper level low offshore will bring chances for elevated thunderstorms over the Cascades today, however, some of which may track toward the Willamette Valley this afternoon and evening. A warming trend will peak on Sunday with daily record high temperatures in the forecast for some inland areas. Temperatures will cool but remain above normal into the next workweek.

LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday

Temperatures are expected to moderate back into the 70s for Monday and through much of the work week as the ridge axis shifts inland. Highs will still run 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds turn southerly with the ridge shifting eastward which will help support chances for marine stratus to develop along the coast. Ensembles show a strong consensus for dry conditions through the workweek for much of the area. However, there is a low (10-20%) chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm over the Lane and Linn county cascades both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Could also see some light drizzle along the coast if the marine stratus is thick enough.

Cluster analysis favors the ridge flattening out toward the end of the week as a shortwave rides over the ridge. This could lead to a pattern shift back to cooler temperatures and low chances for light rain. -19

AVIATION

Predominately, VFR across the airspace through around 06Z Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly dissipate through 05Z Sunday. North/northwest winds at 5-10 kt will continue through 06Z Sunday. Afterwards, northeasterly flow will begin to develop. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to return to coast as marine stratus returns starting around 06Z-08Z Sunday. Any lowered flight conditions should start to improve towards VFR around 20Z-22Z Sunday. After 22Z Sunday, widespread VFR conditions expected with IFR marine stratus returning to the coast towards the end of the TAF period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period. North/northwest winds at 5-10 kt will continue through 03Z-06Z Sunday Afterwards, northeasterly flow will begin to develop. /42

MARINE

Northerly winds continue through the weekend, with peak gusts expected afternoon and easing overnight. A steady weakening of the surface pressure gradient will favor lighter winds through the weekend. Seas of 5-6 ft this morning will slowly build towards 6-8 ft as a long-period northwest swell arrives. Will maintain the current Small Craft Advisory for 3-9 AM Sunday within the Columbia River Bar as a strong ebb current yields steep seas of 7-8 ft.

A southerly wind reversal is expected on Monday, which will bring an return to marine stratus along the coast through Tuesday night. This will also bring overnight aggressive drizzle/light rain to the coast. Northerly winds return towards the latter part of the week with seas of 4-6 ft. /42-36

CLIMATE

Daily record high temperatures for Sunday, May 3

Location Forecast Record Year

Astoria 76 81 1992, 1944 Vancouver 90 84 1944 Portland Int'l 91 89 1992 Hillsboro 90 82 2017 McMinnville 87 87 1992 Salem 87 86 1992 Eugene 85 83 1944

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ108-109-111- 112.

WA...Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for WAZ204>207.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.