textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Upper-level troughing developing over the Northeast Pacific will see strengthening onshore flow and a continued cooling trend through the week. Largely dry conditions continue into the weekend, with the next chance for widespread light rain not expected until next week.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a fairly persistent closed upper low near the Haida Gwaii through much of the period. As the low weakens over the Father's Day weekend, briefly resurgent shortwave ridging will favor a warm-up, with temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across the Willamette Valley and low to mid 60s along the coast into the beginning of next week. A resurgent upper low could bring reinvigorated troughing into the region Monday and Tuesday, yielding the best chances for rainfall in some two weeks for many. Wetter solutions are dominated by European ensemble members, while both the American and Canadian suites favor a drier solution, yielding just 25-50% chances in at least 0.01" of rain across the region Monday and Tuesday. Chances for a more beneficial wetting rain of at least 0.10" inches are 20-40% along the coast and in the Cascades, and only 10-25% along the Willamette Valley. -Picard

AVIATION

Satellite imagery continues to depict VFR conditions with high clouds over the Willamette Valley while the coast maintains MVFR stratus. High confidence coastal terminals maintain IFR/MVFR CIGs through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions prevail inland through most of the TAF period. An exception would be the southern Willamette Valley, where guidance suggests a 20-40% chance for MVFR CIGs through 16z Wed as winds shift more west- southwesterly overnight and bring more moisture. Highest probs around KEUG and KSLE. Any low stratus in the Valley overnight should dissipate from daytime heating by 16-18z Wed. Along the coast, will likely remain sub-VFR through much of the day. Mainly MVFR but could see a period of IFR early Wednesday morning. Expect winds to be around 10 kt or less.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period with high clouds. West-northwesterly winds under 10 kt. -Batz/Alviz

MARINE

Northwesterly onshore flow will continue as surface high pressure remains centered over the northeast Pacific. Winds generally 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through Thursday. Seas are expected to remain steep at 7 to 9 feet at 8 to 10 seconds through Wednesday evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday evening. Seas become less steep overnight but could again meet criteria later Thursday. A weak disturbance may also support low end Small Craft wind gusts late Thursday evening with probs 20-50%, highest for the southern outer waters.

A short Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for the Columbia River Bar through 9 AM for ebb chop. -Batz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ271>273.