textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure over the area will persist through at least Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures with north to northwesterly winds through Sunday. Warming trend with Moderate HeatRisk on Tuesday for many urban areas. Some models show a low pressure system approaching on Wednesday but confidence remains low.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Friday

If you're not a fan of the heat, rest assured that the remainder of the week will see seasonable spring like temperatures. There is increasing confidence in a low pressure system dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. While not robust, it will cause temperatures to decrease and will bring onshore flow and increased chances for some moisture. If rain does fall at this point accumulation is not significant, but that easily could change depending on how that low evolves. Something to consider though are the challenges that these types of systems face when entering into a warm, dry, high pressure scenario. It is possible that it could erode more before making landfall and therefore the impacts would be less significant. With that being said though, there is high confidence that we will see cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week. In fact, the mean temperatures show highs in the upper 70s Wednesday through Friday.-27

AVIATION

Predominately VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with north/northwesterly winds. Diurnally driven winds increases in the afternoon after 20Z Sat with gusts up to 20 kt. Expect gusts along the coast from 21Z Sat-00Z Sun through 04Z-06Z Sunday and for inland locations to start around 00Z-02Z Sun through 05Z-07Z Sunday. KEUG and K77S there is a chance (approx 10%) for VCFG developing around 10Z-14Z Sun however models are not showing it reaching the terminals.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period with north/northwesterly winds. Expect gusts up to 20 kt starting around 02Z Sun through around 07Z Sunday. /42

MARINE

High pressure builds through the weekend which will lead to a typical summer like pattern. Minimal concerns today with winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. There may be a few isolated gusts up to 25 kt (less than a 20% chance) in the afternoon with peak daytime heating, but not expected to be widespread. Sunday is a slightly different story though as the high pressure shifts eastward. We will start to see an increased pressure gradient causing winds to increase considerably. Current forecast shows high confidence in gusts up to 30 kt in the southern waters on Sunday afternoon with a 25% chance of Gale Force Winds in PZZ273 in the afternoon. At this point, the start timing of the Small Craft Advisory winds is uncertain and thus the lack of an advisory, however that will come into better resolution today with the influx of higher resolution models. During this time, the wind wave will increase and combine with the predominately northwesterly swell. Even with this being the case, there is less than a 5% chance of combined seas exceeding 10 ft.

The ridge continues to shift eastward and intensify through Tuesday but overall will have minimal impact to the marine environment. We will see those 30 kt gusts dissipate though on Monday. The next system to watch occurs on Wednesday as a Gulf of Alaska low drops down into the waters. However, because it is eroding as it nears once again, models are showing very little impacts. -27

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None.