textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Chance for showers and storms through the morning as an upper low moves over the area. Precipitation dwindles through the afternoon, from south to north. Cooler on today, then heating up and drying out over the weekend into Wednesday.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

WPC cluster analysis shows decent agreement in the 500 mb pattern heading into the weekend. Ridging over the central CONUS is expected to rebuild into the PacNW, supporting a warming trend Saturday and into next week. The interior lowlands can expect highs in the mid 80s on Saturday, building into the upper 80s to low 90s for Sunday and beyond. In this pattern, marine stratus is likely, especially along the coast though it could transition down the Columbia River into the interior lowlands. If cloud cover becomes pervasive, it will have an impact on high temperatures and minimum humidity. There is some spread among the NBM in exact high temperatures, ranging from the low 80s to mid 90s in the 10th-90th percentiles so could see adjustments moving forward. Models and ensembles continue to back off on the upper 90s heading into next week. The trend is warm but not extreme heat at this point. Moderate HeatRisk is most likely at this point with major HeatRisk potential continuing to decrease. Still, there is a 5-15% chance for major HeatRisk Monday through Wednesday, mainly over the Portland metro, Columbia River Gorge, and portions of the lower Columbia and Cowlitz valleys. -19/27

AVIATION

Southerly flow aloft will continue as an upper level low spins offshore through today. Marine stratus persists along the coast with MVFR CIGs. There is a 50-70% chance for IFR CIGs along the coast through 18Z before dropping off significantly. A stronger marine push is bringing a 30-50% chance of MVFR CIGs at most inland terminals, except around 60-80% at KEUG after 12z. Any lowered CIGs inland should improve to VFR by 19-21z Thu.

The upper low moving over the area will bring a chance for showers and elevated thunderstorms through the afternoon north of Salem. Best chances along the Coast Range and Coast between 12-18z. Main impact with any thunderstorms is abundant lightning along with brief erratic and gusty winds.

Smoke aloft is moving north into NW OR and SW WA from a wildfire in southern OR north of KMFR. This may at times produce a BKN layer around 15-25 kft.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through at least 12z. Chances for MVFR stratus increase to around 40-50% between 14-19z as a deepening marine layer pushes inland. There is also a 15-20% chance of elevated showers or thunderstorms through 18z. Conditions are expected to improve back to VFR this afternoon. Light winds becoming southwesterly to around 10 kt late in the morning. -19/DH

MARINE

Benign conditions with a typical summertime pattern expected through the week. Northerly winds 10-15 kt expected with afternoon gusts reaching to around 20 kt each day. Seas could be choppy at times with heights 4-6 feet but could see some 7-8 foot seas at 8-10 seconds on Sunday. There is a 30-60% chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria winds for all waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

A SCA is in effect until 10AM for rough seas within the Columbia River Bar due to a very strong ebb current leading to seas of 6 to 7 ft. Another SCA for strong ebb current and choppy seas Friday morning from 4 AM to 10 AM. -19

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210.