textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

The next seven days are highlighted by above normal temperatures with low-level onshore flow remaining in place. Mainly dry weather will continue through the weekend, aside from late Wednesday into Thursday when chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms increase with an approaching upper level low.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night

Confidence in the forecast actually increases a bit Friday and into the weekend despite total model spread for temperatures remaining large. Overall, model ensembles are in good agreement for dry and warm conditions Friday through the upcoming weekend with continued low-level onshore flow and southwest flow aloft. The main uncertainty in the long term forecast is exact high temperatures for inland valleys, which could range anywhere from the lower 80s to near 100 degrees. The most likely outcome is for highs somewhere in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

As of this forecast, Sunday and Monday look like they could be similarly warm with highs in the 90s for the interior lowlands. Chances for Sunday highs to reach or exceed 90 degrees are 40-60% for inland valleys, except 30-40% over the Cowlitz Valley and lower Columbia. On Monday, chances are 40-70% for all interior lowlands. Chances for 100 degrees or greater both days are locally 5-10% around the Portland metro and into the Columbia River Gorge. Major HeatRisk probabilities for Sunday range from 10-20% and on Monday from 15- 30%. Extreme heat is unlikely at this time but there remains uncertainty, check in for the latest updates. It is also worth noting the coast would remain much cooler than inland areas regardless of the outcome due to light onshore winds. Beyond the seven day forecast, it is possible the warm and dry conditions will persist beyond Monday. -19/23

AVIATION

Stratus has built northward from the central coast to the Long Beach Peninsula in Washington. Marine stratus will stay confined to the coastal strip, supporting IFR or lower CIGs for coastal terminals until around 16-18Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with mostly clear skies except over the Cascades where some mid and high level clouds are possible. Light north to northwest winds becoming 5-10 kt during the afternoon. Coastal terminals may see gusts up to 20 kt. Another round of marine stratus is expected along the coast, supporting lowered CIGs after 06Z Wednesday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with mostly clear skies and northwesterly winds around 5-8 kt. -19/12

MARINE

Benign conditions with a typical summertime pattern expected through the week. Northerly winds 10-15 kt expected with afternoon gusts reaching to around 20 kt each day. Seas could be choppy at times with heights mainly in the 4-6 foot range but could see some 7 foot seas at 8-10 seconds. Isolated steep and hazardous seas but not enough to issue a Small Craft Advisory (SCA).

A SCA is in effect until 9AM for the Columbia River Bar for rough seas due to a very strong ebb current leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft. Another SCA will be in effect for another strong ebb from 3 AM to 9 AM tonight into Wednesday morning. -19

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210.