textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Another frontal system will bring widespread rain, breezy winds from the south, and a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms today. Any passing thunderstorms may produce lightning, heavy rain, gusty erratic winds, small hail, and/or a funnel cloud. Chances for lingering showers continue through the weekend with cooler than average temperatures. Drier conditions early next week.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

Over the weekend, the majority of ensemble members continue to show broad upper-level troughing over the Pacific Northwest. However, there is uncertainty with whether or not we remain dry or continue with lingering showers. While 75% of ensemble members suggest showers continuing over the region Saturday-Sunday, the other 25% keep us dry. What we can say with higher confidence is that this upper-level low will maintain below-average 500 mb heights and keep high temperatures slightly cooler than average for this time of year. Early next week, the majority of ensemble members show the upper low weakening and beginning to move eastward. This would favor drier conditions, but there remains uncertainty with how much high pressure will re-build over our area, and how warm/dry we get. /42-10

AVIATION...Through 12Z Friday

Current radar imagery as of 11Z Thursday show showers slowly moving eastward. These showers are currently bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the coast. As a result, expect these conditions to persist along the coast through the majority of the TAF period. As for inland locations, rain showers will gradually fill in through 14Z Thursday, along with a mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions. Across the airspace there is a 15-40% chance of MVFR conditions at any given hour during the TAF period. Also, any stronger showers could temporarily reduce flight conditions to IFR or lower through 16Z Thursday. Lastly, there is a 20-35% chance for thunderstorms across the airspace starting around 17Z Thursday through around 03Z Friday. Any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce lightning, small hail, and gusty/erratic winds.

Southerly winds will continue through the TAF period with gusts of 20-30 kt through 00Z Friday, with the highest gusts along the coast. Winds will weaken beyond 00Z Friday, but still remain mostly southerly.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR conditions with intermittent MVFR conditions as showers re-develop. This is resulting in a 25-40% chance of MVFR conditions at any given hour during the TAF period. There is a 20-35% chance for thunderstorms starting around 18Z Thursday through around 00Z Friday. Southerly winds will continue with gusts of 20 kt through 00Z Friday. Winds will weaken beyond 00Z Friday, but still remain mostly southerly. /42

MARINE

Current observations show seas around 9-11 ft at 8-10 seconds with southerly gusts up to 30 kt. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight as a fresh west/northwest swell overnight into Thursday maintains conditions. Due to the continued sea state and breezy winds, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least tonight. There'll also be 15-30% chance for thunderstorms through Thursday with the best relative chances Thursday afternoon. Any of these storms will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, small hail, and lightning.

While relatively active weather with lingering rain showers will continue into the weekend, marine conditions will subside by Friday with seas holding in the 4-6 ft range by Friday afternoon. Similar conditions persist into early next week while winds occasionally gust to 15-20 knots.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.