textproduct: Portland

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Confidence remains high heading into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Cluster analysis is heavily favoring troughing over the PacNW and western Canada with several embedded impulses reinforcing this pattern for several days. Temperatures continue to trend downward into the weekend. Models continue to show only weak signals for precipitation with a chance coming on Thursday as a front moves through the area and a better shot on Saturday as a slightly stronger front is expected. Beyond Saturday, the upper level pattern begins to flatten out and temperatures warm back into the 80s. -19

AVIATION...Through 18Z Wednesday

Dry, southwest flow aloft today as upper level ridge of high pressure shifts east. Satellite imagery this morning shows marine stratus entrenched along the coast, slowly retreating from the Coast Range valleys. Wildfire smoke from the Austin fire has been streaming aloft over PDX, but is expected to shift farther east later this afternoon as a strong marine push of westerly winds arrives. Expect a mix of MVFR to IFR CIGs to persist along the coast much of the day. There is around a 60% chance of conditions improving to VFR at KAST briefly this afternoon between 21-00z. VFR expected across inland terminals through at least 10z Wednesday. There is around a 30-50% chance that marine stratus with MVFR CIGs pushes inland after 12-14z Wed morning. Expect southwest winds to become slightly more westerly this afternoon before easing later this evening.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected with smoke aloft gradually drifting eastward this afternoon. With a stronger marine push tonight, marine stratus could push inland with around a 30-50% chance of MVFR CIGs after 14z Wednesday. SSW winds around 4-7 kt expected to become westerly after 22z. /DH

MARINE

Winds shift to the south as a weak disturbance passes over the region. Winds across much of the waters expected to be 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt within 20 nm of the coast. The notable exception will be the inner waters north of Cape Falcon north to Cape Shoalwater where winds are expected to be 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late this morning through the evening. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for zone PZZ251 and the Columbia River Bar from 10 AM to 7 PM today. Isolated SCA criteria gusts are possible outside the advisory.

The next pattern shift looks to occur Thursday night into Friday, when troughing moves into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a return to northwesterly flow with low to moderate chances for light rain showers. Seas otherwise continue at 3-6 ft through this weekend. -19/36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251.