textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Near normal temperatures expected today, then increasing Monday and Tuesday as a ridge amplifies over the northern Plains. The temperature and precipitation forecast becomes more uncertain Wednesday through Friday, however odds are leaning towards warmer than normal temperatures continuing with mainly dry conditions.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday night

The warm conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday as the upper level ridge remains in control over the area. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected across the interior lowlands and mid 60s to low 70s along the coast. A weak disturbance is expected to pass over central Oregon and could support showers or thunderstorms along the Cascade crest during the afternoon. Probabilities at this time are around 15-30% along the Lane and Linn county Cascades.

The pattern continues to show a decent amount of uncertainty heading into Wednesday and the remainder of the week with temperature and precipitation discrepancies at the forefront. Ensembles continue to struggle with a closed low that is expected to develop somewhere off the southern coast of British Columbia and into the PacNW. Development farther north around vancouver Island will support another day of warm temperatures in the 80s while a more southern development off the Oregon coast would lead to temperatures likely in the upper 70s to low 80s, At this point, ensembles favor the farther north development with 70-80% of ECMWF members and ~60% of GFS members. NBM spread between the 10th-90th percentiles has decreed from around 20 degrees to 15 degrees, ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s now. There also remains a low (10-20%) chance for showers across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Confidence increases for dry weather on Friday, however the temperature forecast remains uncertain with the NBM 10th-90th percentile for highs ranging from the lower 80s to upper 90s for inland valleys. -19

AVIATION

Stratus continues to backbuild off the Cascades and into the Willamette Valley and Portland metro with cloud cover around 3-4 kft. Low end VFR CIGs could briefly drop down to MVFR though chances are only 20-40% for any given interior location. Conditions along the coast are also mixed with a bit of stratus developing around KONP and KTMK while KAST remains SKC. Pockets of cloud cover expected to continue before clearing late morning. Northwest winds increase late morning to around 10 kts with isolated gusts to 20 kt, better chances along the coast.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low end VFR CIGs as stratus builds in from the east. Low chance for MVFR CIGs around 20-30% through 15Z. Northwest winds increase to around 10 kt with isolated gusts 15-20 kt possible during the afternoon. -19

MARINE

North to northwest flow expected to persist today and into next week. A thermal trough develops this afternoon, tightening the pressure gradient along the coast and strengthening winds. Winds will increase over the central water first, then gradually increase northward as the thermal trough strengthens. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected with sustained winds of 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. Winds will ease below SCA thresholds Monday morning. Seas increase to 6-7 feet at 8-9 seconds this evening but quickly fall back to around 5-6 feet by Monday morning. Conditions the rest of the work week are expected to be benign. -19

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272-273.