textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable weather continues through much of the week with a first weather system bringing chances for rain today into Monday and a second from Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday

A vertically stacked surface and upper-level closed low centered about 75 miles west of the Olympic Peninsula early this afternoon will slowly track to the southeast, filling as it moves onshore on the north Oregon coast by midday Monday. An initial cold front continues to progress eastward across the region, extending from the Eugene area to the north-northeast over the western Columbia Gorge and south Washington Cascades as of early Sunday afternoon, and should move east of the Cascade crest by late this evening or very early Tuesday morning. Observed rainfall over the past 12 hours has already reached a half inch or more for many areas on the north and central Oregon coast and along the I-5 corridor north of Salem, with a quarter to a half inch to the south.

While short-range guidance favors a brief break from the rain this afternoon, rain shower coverage should increase again as the core of the upper low moves overhead beginning early this evening along the coast and by around midnight tonight inland. Shower coverage should persist through the day Tuesday as a shortwave aloft reinforces support for ascent, before trending drier later in the day. Up to an additional three-quarters of an inch may fall from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon in valley areas and along the coast, with as much as 1.5-2 inches in the Cascades and foothills which have yet to see the main frontal rain band. Snow levels falling to near 5000 ft may allow for accumulations at or above pass level, with a 50-60% chance for 1" of snow at Santiam and Willamette Passes through tonight, but only a 10% chance at mountain passes near Mt. Hood. Temperatures through this period will remain near seasonal norms in the 50s to low 60s for afternoon highs and largely in the 40s for overnight lows. -36

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday

Another, broader closed upper low and its associated surface low will drop south from the Gulf of Alaska over Vancouver Island and into the Pacific Northwest from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing another round of rain chances to the region from early Wednesday through much of Thursday. Even cooler air within the upper low will see seasonable temperatures continue, or even fall by a degree or two from earlier in the week. Snow levels will fall to 3500-4000 ft by Thursday morning, although much of the precipitation at pass level may occur before snow levels are low enough to see significant accumulations. Nonetheless, there are 30-60% chances for another inch or more at area Cascade Passes from Wednesday morning through Thursday night. At lower elevations, another 0.5-1.0 inches of rain may fall during this time. While the forecast trends drier as the upper low fills by this Saturday, it may still remain close enough to the region to support lingering rain showers for Halloween trick-or-treaters. At this point, there are 10-20% chances for light rain while temperatures fall through the 40s Saturday afternoon and evening, with higher confidence in dry weather by Sunday. -36

AVIATION...Through 06z Tuesday

Moist, southwest flow aloft becomes more westerly early Monday as a low pressure system moves over the region. A cold frontal rain band pushing into the Cascades will eventually slide east of the Cascades after 08z Monday, while another round of showers over the coast shifts east later this evening. Flight conditions are a mix of MVFR and VFR as of 05z Mon, with predominately VFR conditions across the southern and central Willamette Valley. KONP likely remains IFR through 08z Mon before seeing improvement. Post-frontal rain showers likely persist through Monday, yielding brief periods of MVFR conditions if they pass over a terminal. More widespread MVFR cigs are again favored after 12z Monday within the nocturnal boundary layer.

South to southeast winds around 5-10 kt expected at inland terminals, veering out of the south behind the boundary along the Willamette Valley. Low pressure offshore will maintain enough of a pressure gradient to see east winds continue near the western Columbia Gorge at KTTD. At the coast, south winds of 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt will continue overnight.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A slight improvement to low-end VFR is possible (50-60% chance) between 06-12z Monday, but at this time, MVFR is favored with CIGs lowering by 12z Mon. Chances for MVFR CIGs remain elevated above 50% through 06z Tuesday. Multiple rounds of rain showers are expected to continue through Monday. Southeast winds expected around 6-12 kt through the period. /DH

MARINE

A slow-moving and steadily weakening area of low pressure will traverse waters through tonight, before moving onshore near Cape Falcon Monday morning. To its north, winds will back through Monday evening, while winds veer to its south, yielding widespread northwesterly flow by late Monday in its wake. Gusty south to southwest winds and seas of 8-11 ft today will ease through tonight as the low weakens and moves inland. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect, ending from north to south through the day Monday as conditions subside below hazardous thresholds.

Behind this initial system, winds and seas will continue to ease through Tuesday, until a northwesterly swell begins to build late Tuesday into Wednesday as another system approaches from the Gulf of Alaska. There continue to be 10-30% chances for seas to reach or exceed 10 ft at any point Wednesday in the waters beyond 10 NM, with additional Small Craft Advisories possibly merited. Winds are then favored to ease below 10 kt while seas fall to 5 ft or less by the end of the week. -36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210-251-271.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-272.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ253-273.