textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather has returned across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington following the atmospheric river event. Several rivers remain in action stage but will continue to subside today as dry weather prevails. A high pressure ridge will build over the northeast Pacific Ocean and move overhead by Monday, warming temperatures into the mid to upper 60s throughout next week. Precipitation chances also continue as an atmospheric river rides the northern periphery of the ridge. The bulk of the rain is forecast to track toward western British Columbia and northwest Oregon, with lighter amounts over our area.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday

The long term forecast will ultimately be defined by how amplified the aforementioned upper level ridge will be. Current trends within the majority of ensemble members remain in agreement that the general warming and drying trend will continue through the latter part of the upcoming week. In fact, by the end of the week (Friday), NBM guidance suggests a 35-50% chance for high temperatures exceeding 70 degrees across the central/northern Willamette Valley, with higher chances of 50-75% across the southern Willamette Valley. Given the warmer temperatures, we could see some increased snowmelt across the Cascades. /42

AVIATION

A broad upper level ridge with mid-level moisture will maintain west to northwest flow aloft along with mid to high level clouds streaming across the area. Expect widespread VFR conditions to continue through the period at most terminals. As a warm front approaches the coast this afternoon, expect CIGs to gradually lower with low chances for very light rain across northern terminals. Chances for MVFR conditions increase along the north Oregon coast after 10z Monday to around 50%. Generally light and variable winds expected through the period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with broken to overcast mid and high level clouds expected through the TAF period. Generally light and variable winds becoming southeasterly, less than 7 kt. Slight chance for light rain between 21Z Sunday and 03Z Monday. /DH

MARINE

Conditions will continue to settle over all the waters as high pressure slowly builds in over the region. This will result in seas around 5 to 8 ft t with wind gusts below 20 kt through at least Monday afternoon. The north/northeast winds early this morning will slowly become more easterly by the afternoon and southerly by this evening. Another system is expected to impact the far northeastern Pacific as it takes aim at Vancouver Island. There is still some uncertainty as to how much of an impact this system will have on our waters, but expect seas to build towards 8 to 10 ft and winds to increase with gusts up to 25 kt by Monday evening/Tuesday morning. Highest winds and seas are expected in our northern zones (PZZ251 and PZZ271). Therefore, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for zones PZZ251, PZZ252 PZZ271, PZZ272 and the Columbia River Bar starting Monday afternoon. While winds are expected to be breezy, probabilities for gales is generally less than 15%. As we approach the middle of next week, winds and seas again ease and look to persist through the end of the week. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210-251-252-271-272.