textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

A progressive southwesterly flow pattern will keep occasional waves of precipitation moving through the region into early next week albeit with warmer than normal temperatures - limited weather related impacts anticipated. Model uncertainty increases by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week but ensembles continue support the return of an upper-level ridge and thus a period of drier weather yet again, just what we need.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday

Rain returns late Saturday night into Sunday as a trough digging across the NE Pacific supports a deep surface low well offshore. The cold front of this system will bring another round of light rain to the lowlands and moderate rain to the Coast and higher terrain locations. Cluster analysis indicates another large ridge building early next week which could bring another dry period to the region. However, the clusters don't show the best agreement on where the ridge axis sets up with some farther inland and others closer to the coast. If farther inland, this could leave the door open for weak systems to bring precipitation to the area. -19

AVIATION

Light rain continues across the area as a cold front moves eastward. Despite this, CIGs should generally remain around 4000-5000 ft or higher across the Willamette Valley. Meanwhile, expect a mix of MVFR/VFR CIGs along the coast are expected to improve south to north through the day.

Winds will remain south to southeast with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast. Gusts should remain under 10 kt across the Valley. An exception is the eastern Portland Metro Area (KPDX/KTTD), where offshore KTTD-KDLS pressure gradients will maintain easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge with gusts up to 20-25 kt around KTTD through the morning. Given that there will be stronger southwest winds of 30-35 kt at 2 kft, low level wind shear was included in the TAFs for KPDX and KTTD through the morning.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low-end VFR CIGs through the 12z TAF period with light rain showers. Less than a 10% chance for MVFR CIGs at any given hour. East-southeasterly winds will continue around 10 kt. Directional wind shear around 2 kft is expected through the morning. -19/23

MARINE

An incoming frontal system will bring breezy southerly winds across the waters through the morning, with the strongest gusts over the outer waters (10+ NM offshore). Brief period of Gale force gusts is possible through early this morning. A Hazardous Seas Warning is in place for all zones through 7 PM this evening. Winds will still be gusty during this timeframe but seas will also be steep.

A west-southwesterly swell will also move through the waters, building seas above 15 feet. Seas are expected to peak around 15-18 ft at 14-15 sec through the morning. Guidance suggests a 5-15% chance that seas exceed 20 ft across for areas 30+ NM offshore. Winds weaken but remain breezy this afternoon. The pattern remain active Friday and into the weekend as additional systems maintain small craft conditions with breezy southerly winds. -19/10

BEACH HAZARDS

A long period westerly swell of 14-18 ft at 14-15 seconds will result in a high threat for sneaker waves today. Waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming this week. -10

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ210- 251>253.

Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for PZZ271>273.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ271>273.