textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Warm and drier conditions return to the region through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Daytime highs expected to reach into the low 90s by the start of next week, which will result in pockets of Moderate HeatRisk across the forecast area. No significant precipitation currently in the forecast through at least the middle of next week.

LONG TERM...Monday through Wednesday

Looking towards next week, model ensembles remain in good agreement. WPC 500mb Clusters show high pressure continuing to build over the Great Basin and push into the Pac NW through the middle of next week. As a result, daytime highs are expected to warm into the low 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. The NBM has tightened up on the temperature spread with every subsequent run over the past 48 hours. Monday through Wednesday look to be fairly similar with most areas inland locations having a 45-65% probability of reaching at least 90 degrees F and a 15-30% probability of reaching 95 degrees F or higher. While daytime highs in the 90s are not an unusual occurrence in mid to late July, that does not negate the potential for impacts from heat. So, for the start of next week, the current forecast does have areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Overall, expect warm and dry conditions for the start of next week. /42

AVIATION

Southerly flow aloft will become southwesterly this evening into tonight as a low pressure system drifts northward towards Vancouver Island. Showers and thunderstorms continue on the north side of this low, but exited northwest OR and southwest WA early Thursday afternoon. Therefore, dry conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 00Z Saturday.

Low marine stratus with MVFR ceilings remains in place both inland and at the coast as of 21Z Thursday. However, ceilings are still expected to lift to low-end VFR for inland terminals by approximately 22-23Z Thursday. There is a 50-70% chance for MVFR ceilings to redevelop after 12Z Friday at KPDX and KTTD, and a 30-40% chance at KHIO, KUAO, KSLE and KEUG. Coastal terminals will likely see MVFR ceilings remaining in place throughout most of the 18Z TAF period, with brief improvements to low-end VFR this afternoon.

Lastly, smoke aloft is moving north into NW OR and SW WA from a wildfire in southwest OR burning to the north of KMFR. This may produce a broken smoke layer around 15-25 kft at times, especially over the Cascades.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect MVFR ceilings to persist through 20-21Z Thursday before lifting to low-end VFR thresholds. Chances for MVFR ceilings increase late tonight, reaching 50-70% after 12Z Friday. SSW winds are expected to become W towards 00Z Friday and then NW by 01-02Z Friday. -23

MARINE

Benign conditions for winds and seas with a typical summertime pattern expected through the week. Northerly winds around 10-15 kt are expected each afternoon/evening with gusts up to approximately 20 kt, except up to 25 kt this weekend to the south of Cape Falcon (60-90% chance). Seas around 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds will continue through Saturday afternoon. Expect seas to increase slightly to 6 to 9 ft while becoming steeper Saturday night into Sunday, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Columbia River Bar for a strong ebb current and choppy seas Thursday morning from 4 AM to 10 AM. -23

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210.