textproduct: Portland

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures with mostly dry conditions through the weekend and into next week, although periods of light showers will be possible this evening and again Monday night into Tuesday. Breezy east winds this morning decrease by this afternoon. Near to below freezing temperatures likely early Monday with lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Increasing chances for rain late next week.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

Light showers linger into Tuesday afternoon as the upper trough digs farther south into the Great Basin. Then, dry conditions expected on Wednesday as high pressure nudges back over the region. 500 mb cluster analysis shows fairly good agreement with this pattern. Later next week, models and their ensembles show the a flatter ridge, which would allow for systems to the north to push some precipitation down into NW Oregon later Thursday through Friday. Snow levels are expected to remain elevated. Low chances for any impactful weather through the next week. /DH

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected through at least 00z Sun as dry conditions continue. A weak front dropping across the region will bring enhanced cloud cover and increasing chances for rain showers and lowered cigs after 00z Sat. Portland-area terminals will be the most likely to see persistent VFR conditions, however there are 30-50% chances of MVFR cigs and less than a 10% chance of IFR cigs. South along the Willamette Valley as well as along the coast, MVFR cigs will be favored (60-80% chance of cigs below 3 kft) but there are significant chances (30-50%) for IFR cigs during the frontal passage. Any rain showers associated with the front are expected to remain light and may only briefly restrict vis at area terminals.

Winds look to remain light and variable today at sites across the region, aside from increased easterly flow to the west of terrain gaps. KTTD will continue to see gusty east winds through the Columbia Gorge, while other Portland-area terminals see lighter east winds. Renewed offshore flow turning northerly in the Willamette Valley is expected by 09-12z Sun.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions favored to prevail through the period, however chances for MVFR cigs increase from 00-09z Sat as a weak front drops across the region. While cigs will most likely remain near 4 kft, there are 20-40% chances for MVFR cigs instead during much of the overnight period. Any rain showers should remain light, with brief vis restrictions possible but prolonged impacts unlikely. East flow at less than 10 kt will continue through the period at KPDX, with stronger flow at 15 kt gusting to 25 kt to the east near KTTD. -36

MARINE

Fairly benign weather across the coastal waters as light offshore flow this morning turns back onshore later today. Winds generally remain 10 kt or less, although areas immediately downwind of gaps in the coastal terrain may see locally strong wind gusts up to 20 kt this morning. A very weak low drops south over the waters tonight, followed by high pressure building offshore through Sunday. Expect northerly flow late Sunday into early next week. Another weak front moves across the waters early Tuesday. Seas around 4 to 7 ft continue through the weekend. A long period westerly swell arrives late Monday into Tuesday, pushing seas toward 10 ft. Seas expected to subside again by Wednesday. /DH

BEACH HAZARDS

A long-period westerly swell is expected along the northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington coasts from late Monday through Wednesday next week. Wave heights increasing to 8 to 10 ft on Tuesday may not appear to present a safety risk to those on area beaches, but these energetic waves will present a moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, waves which can run significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. In addition, a period of perigean spring or "king" tides means these waves will have an even easier time reaching high up onto beaches, limiting the areas which may be safe from wave action.

A Beach Hazards Statement has therefore been issued from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 PM Wednesday. Sneaker waves can create potentially life-threatening conditions in the surf zone when beachgoers can be unexpectedly knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold ocean waters. Caution should be used when in or near the water, and those with children should be especially watchful. Never turn your back on the ocean, and be sure to keep an eye on the waves. Those participating in razor clam digs should additionally exercise caution. -36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None.