textproduct: Portland

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Model guidance remains highly consistent regarding the pattern evolution through the weekend. Multiple ensemble members support an active trough settling into the Pacific Northwest, with successive impulses reinforcing troughing through Saturday. This will drive a sharp and sustained temperature drop beginning Wednesday, with highs quickly sliding from near- average values to the upper 70s Thursday and Friday, potentially dropping to the mid 70s by Saturday.

While precipitation remains modest this week, Saturday presents the most robust signal for light rain as a stronger impulse passes. Weaken drizzle is possible Thursday morning with an initial frontal passage, but organization and areal coverage of any shower activity remain uncertain given significant model spread at this extended timeframe. ~12

AVIATION...Through 06Z Wednesday

Widespread VFR conditions continue for inland locations and northerly winds across the airspace. Observations show IFR/LIFR conditions slowly moving northward along the coast. These conditions are already impacting KONP and are expected to impact KAST around 10Z-12Z Tuesday. A southerly wind reversal is also expected with southerly winds already being observed along the coast. These southerly winds will also enable marine stratus to infiltrate into the southern Willamette Valley resulting in MVFR conditions at KEUG starting around 12Z-14Z Tuesday. Expect these lowered flight levels to persist along the coast through at least the remainder of the TAF period, with KEUG improving back towards VFR around 18Z Tuesday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period for all other locations. As for inland winds, expect light, northerly winds, with southerly winds of 5-10 kt developing for inland terminals from 12Z-20Z Tuesday. Also, could see some gusty southerly winds starting along the coast around 16Z-20Z Tuesday with gusts approaching 25 kt. These gusts are expected to persist through at least the remainder of the TAF period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Light northerly winds continue through the overnight hours, before becoming southerly around 16Z Tuesday. /42

MARINE

High pressure offshore maintains northerly winds across the waters. Winds and gusts will ease this evening as high pressure begins to weaken, with winds turning south-southwesterly by midday Tuesday. Largely wind-driven seas continue at 2-6 ft through Tuesday.

Southerly flow at 5-15 kt will then persist across the waters through much of the workweek. Periods of winds to 20 kt along the southern Washington and far northern Oregon coasts including the mouth of the Columbia are possible Tuesday afternoon, however the confidence in the persistence of these winds long enough to warrant another Small Craft Advisory in within 10 NM from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Falcon and across the Columbia River Bar are too low at this point. Intermittent gusts to 25 kt are most likely between 11 AM and 8 PM PDT Tuesday.

The next pattern shift looks to occur Thursday night into Friday, when troughing moves into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a return to northwesterly flow with low to moderate chances for light rain showers. Seas otherwise continue at 3-6 ft through this weekend. -36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None.