textproduct: WSO Pago Pago
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
Synopsis
Two distinct features of interest are observed on the latest satellite imageries over the Tropical Southwest Pacific: An Equatorial trough to the north of American Samoa; and another developing surface trough to the southeast near Niue and the Cook Islands. Meanwhile, a more stable trade wind regime is currently observed over the American Samoa islands.
Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]
The long stretch of below average rainfall looks likely to be broken next week as the surface trough southeast of the islands moves close to the territory, increasing rainfall chances through the majority of the new week. Winds are expected to remain light with the primary surface convergence associated with the trough remaining south of the territory. However, with much stronger southeasterly winds south of the surface convergence, there is a very small chance (~10%) for breezy conditions at times if the trough moves further north than currently forecast. The potential for flash flooding will also be dependent on the exact positioning of the surface convergence. Regardless, at least numerous showers are anticipated for this period, with the potential for an upgrade to widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms in later forecast updates.
Marine
Moderate easterlies may lead to slightly choppy seas at times through the weekend, but still remaining below advisory levels. For the new week winds across the territory and coastal waters should be light. However, as mentioned previously a fresh southeasterly breeze is expected just south of the area as the trough moves closer. These stronger winds south of the territory are forecast to bring a strong southeasterly swell by late Monday. This is expected to lead to Small Craft Advisory and possibly High Surf Advisory conditions, with wave heights expected to peak on Tuesday in the 7 to 9 foot range. Any heavy showers or thunderstorms embedded in the trough may further elevate seas and surfs at times.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE
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