textproduct: WSO Pago Pago
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
Discussion
Current satellite imagery shows the majority of the trough, marked by a broad band of clouds, that has brought recent continuous and occasionally heavy rainfall across the territory shifting farther north. A strong high pressure system southwest of American Samoa is pushing it away from the islands. Over the next few days, much drier conditions are expected under breezy trade winds as the ridge associated with the high pressure system dominates conditions over the forecast area.
However, this drier pattern is not expected to last. The latest model data indicate the trough will move back across the territory from late Tuesday through Friday as the aforementioned high pressure weakens as it moves eastward. An uptick in showers is expected during these days and the risk for thunderstorms increase across the area. Furthermore, during this passage, southeast winds will diminish and shift counter- clockwise, becoming north to northwest. By the end of the new week, the trough is expected to weaken as it shifts northward again, away from the territory, as another high pressure system build far southwest of the islands.
Marine
Latest PacIOOS wave buoys show a continuing downward trend in seas today, remaining within the 7 to 9 feet range for both Aunuu and King-Poloa buoys. Although we are seeing subsiding seas, it is still within the advisory criteria, especially as we are continuing to see breezy conditions. Hence, we will continue the advisories for both high surfs and small crafts through at least tonight.
Latest wave watch III forecast continues to show these heights diminishing through at least midweek when another south-southwest swell reaches our forecast area. Also, tradewinds are forecast to diminish to 10 to 15 knots by Sunday. From the downward trend in both winds and seas, the advisories for high surfs and small craft will likely be cancelled by tomorrow (Sunday), earlier than expected with consideration of reissuance by midweek if the expected aforementioned swells meet advisory criteria.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory High Surf Advisory
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