textproduct: WSO Pago Pago

DISCUSSION

Moderate north wind flow continues to push single cell pop-ups carrying brief passing showers over the islands throughout the day. These north winds have also aided in pushing the trough further south and away from the islands. Satellite imageries show improving conditions as drier and more stable air moves over the area for the next couple of days. The atmospheric profile displayed on the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (01/00Z) supports a conditionally stable environment, similar to the last 24 hours. Hence, the threat of flash flooding has diminished, and the flood watch is now cancelled.

Although model data shows improving conditions over the area tonight and the rest of the short term period (thru Thursday), model data also shows a shortwave trough moving through the islands late Friday night through Saturday. This will again briefly increase the potential for showers across the territory. By the new week, model data shows a low pressure system materializing to the west of the Fiji Islands, turning winds northeast as it migrates southeast. Gentle to moderate east- northeast winds with embedded showers will prevail for the rest of the forecast period.

Marine

Ocean conditions continue to gradually subside throughout the day. Observations from the PacIOOS buoys show heights around 6 to 8 feet with peak periods around 9 to 11 seconds. Although these values are peaking at the small craft advisory threshold (8 feet and/or 20 knots), seas will continue to subside further below these thresholds, overnight tonight. The trend expected for tonight through at least Thursday night will be favorable for mariners and water recreational activities alike. The only exceptions of unfavorable conditions are the likelihood of seas and winds elevated by thunderstorms nearby from time to time. However, model data shows the trough moving away from the area, minimizing the threat of thunderstorms. Model data also shows a large south swell moveing closer to the islands on Friday. This will likely prompt the issuance of alerts for this time frame. By Sunday, seas will subside to below advisory thresholds again. Thus, the advisories for small crafts and high surfs are now cancelled.

PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory Cancelled Small Craft Advisory Cancelled Flood Watch Cancelled