textproduct: WSO Pago Pago
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]
A ridge to the southwest with surface high pressure center currently between Australia and New Zealand will be the next weather maker across the Tropical Southwest Pacific. By midweek, the high pressure center will move over New Zealand as the ridge quickly intensifies. Winds will turn back out of the southeast to start the week and become breezy by midweek. Any subtle convergences in the strengthening trade wind flow may enhance shower activity as there is not yet expected to be a trade wind inversion through the first half of the week (Monday through Wednesday), minor localized flooding will remain possible with abundant moisture over the territory. By the second half of the week into the next weekend, wind speeds will further strengthen to near-advisory levels. The potential for localized flooding is expected be decrease over this time frame (Thursday through Saturday), as the strengthening ridge gradually builds a trade wind inversion over the territory.
Therefore, expect trade winds out of the southeast to develop over the long term forecast period. These winds will gradually strengthen through late week. A Wind Advisory may be needed by the second half of the week into the weekend. Minor localized flooding is possible through the first half of the long term period, but becomes less likely for the second half.
Marine
Despite the decrease in wind speeds today, the south swell continues to linger across the area. Wave heights remain elevated in the 7 to 9 foot range at Aunu'u buoy, outperforming model forecasts. Therefore, High Surf and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least this evening. Model data still indicates that seas and surf will subside below advisory levels by the latter half of the weekend into early next week.
By midway through the new week, seas and surf should rapidly build back to advisory levels as trade winds strengthen to gusty conditions. By Thursday, as trade winds intensify to a strong breeze, seas are forecast to build to dangerous heights of over 10 feet, with surf potentially exceeding warning levels. This will bring dangerous conditions that mariners and beachgoers alike need to be aware of.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory remains in effect. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
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