textproduct: WSO Pago Pago
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
The trough over the Cook Islands on the other hand, will drive the weather pattern for the long term forecast period. By midweek, a strong surface high pressure system is expected to rapidly develop well to the east of New Zealand. This high pressure should push the trough over the Cook Islands northwestward and closer to American Samoa. Consecutive runs of multiple models and ensembles depict a weak surface low pressure system developing within the trough to the southeast of the territory, leading to above average confidence in wind and precipitation forecasts for this forecast range. Winds should initially turn out of the south by Wednesday ahead of the low pressure system. Rain chances are expected to increase to at least numerous showers by Wednesday night. The surface low pressure is forecast to move very near to or direcly over the islands late Thursday or early Friday, bringing a short period of light and variable winds. As the surface low moves away to the west of the territory on Friday, winds increase and turn out of the north to northeast through the weekend, potentially increasing as high as 20 mph at times. Rain is forecast to remain above average through the weekend. At this time, it is too early to determine if there will be a threat for flash flooding during the midweek through weekend timeframe.
Tropical development is not expected within 300 nautical miles from American Samoa over the next 7 days.
Marine
Seas are currently observed in the 4 to 6 foot range at Aunu'u and Poloa buoys. Marine conditions should remain similar through Tuesday as no significant winds or swells are expected through this time. However, by Tuesday night a slight increase in wave heights (5 to 7 feet) may occur due to a south swell. Longer period times associated with this swell will lead to stronger currents and slightly elevated surf near the shoreline Tuesday night through the end of the week, but conditions should remain below advisory levels.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE
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