textproduct: WSO Pago Pago
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
Widespread showers, heavy at times with isolated thunderstorm activity and gusty east-southeast winds with overcast skies remained over the islands throughout the day. These conditions are actively produced by a trough shown on the latest satellite imageries. The atmospheric profile depicted by the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (18/00Z) shows a very moist and convective environment, inducing flash flooding criteria. Model solutions show these conditions continuing for the night through at least Monday night. Therefore, the flood watch continues through this time frame.
Model data shows a low pressure system developing just east of the Fiji Islands (southwest of the Samoa Islands), by early Monday morning, migrating northeast, closer to the Samoa Islands. As the low pressure pressure moves closer to the territory, the aforementioned conditions will likely remain. By Monday night into Tuesday, model projects the low pressure system will be well southeast of the area, decreasing the threat of flash flooding and gusty winds over the islands. So by Tuesday, much improved weather conditions is expected and will likely remain for the rest of the forecast period. Expect scattered showers with light south winds on Tuesday through the end of the week.
Marine
A large south swell coupled with strong gusty winds and thunderstorms nearby continues to hold rough seas, dangerous surfs and a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents over the American Samoa coastal waters through at least Monday. Observations collected from the PacIOOS buoys (Aunu'u & King Poloa) show elevated seas with peak periods occasionally reaching 10 seconds throughout day. These conditions poses a high risk to all mariners, swimmers and boaters alike. Model projections show seas subsiding to more favorable conditions by Tuesday, and light and variable winds through the end of the forecast period. Thus, advisories for small crafts and high surfs with potential rip current threats remain in effect for tonight through at least Monday night.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory Flood Watch
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