textproduct: WSO Pago Pago

Long term

The forecast for all of next week depends on the exact location of the SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone). The weather pattern formation has the ingredients for the potential of severe weather during this time, which includes breezy to strong northwesterly winds and the possibility of consistent and/or heavy rainfall that may trigger widespread flash flooding conditions.

Northwesterly winds are forecast to increase on Monday. If the SPCZ is closer and stronger to American Samoa, winds may reach up to around 30 mph at times. However, may be less than that if the SPCZ is further away. Therefore, our wind speed range for next week is higher than usual due to SPCZ location uncertainties. There is high confidence of above average rainfall throughout the week. We will monitor the potential of flash flooding during this time.

Overall, we will monitor the SPCZ closely throughout the week for the potential for severe weather as confidence levels of the exact position of the SPCZ is not high at this time. If the SPCZ remains further south, conditions are likely to be less than forecast.

We want to remind everyone that we are beginning to enter the typically more active part of our hurricane season and to continue to be prepared throughout the season.

Marine

The latest data from the PacIOOS buoys to the west of Tutuila and to the east of Aunu'u show ideal sea conditions. These ideal seas are forecast to continue through the weekend. However, be aware of the possibility of thunderstorms for the rest of the day and tonight over the American Samoa coastal waters.

For next week, an SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) is forecast to move close to American Samoa. Winds may increase to a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze at times. If winds increase to this strength, expect wind driven seas to likely also reach the Small Craft Advisory levels. Confidence on the exact location and strength of the SPCZ is not high at this time. However, we anticipate rainfall to be above average, which may cause strong gusty winds near heavy rainfall and the potential of thunderstorms.

PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories at this time (Saturday afternoon). Please see weather.gov/ppg for the latest updates.