textproduct: WSO Pago Pago

Discussion

An active trough will continue to drive unsettled weather through the new week. This feature supports the flash flood watch currently in effect through Sunday for the territory due to its proximity. However, model guidance continues to keep most of the thunderstorms just northeast of the Islands, influenced by a high pressure system to the south. Given the uncertainty in the strength of both features, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Tuesday. This may require an extension of the flash flood watch.

Additionally, an uptick in winds is possible tonight through Sunday night as winds shift north. This may be due to an interaction between the trough and a ridge to the northeast. Nonetheless, downslope winds to the north may be stronger for south-facing villages.

The high pressure system to the south is forecast to exit the region Sunday night, allowing thunderstorms to move directly over the Samoa Island chain. Widespread showers may hold through Tuesday night, before diminishing by midweek. Remnants from the trough will likely keep moisture in the area through the the rest of the forecast period.

PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash FLood Watch Small Craft Advisory