textproduct: WSO Pago Pago
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
Observations from the latest upper air sounding (RAOB) this afternoon (18/00Z) show a stable atmospheric profile over the area. These conditions refelcts fair weather patterns as a strong high pressure system to the south continues to produce strong and gusty winds, holding a trough to the north and away from the islands. Model data show this trend remaining through at least Sunday night, keeping cooler than normal temperatures and breezy east-southeast winds over the area through at least Monday night. Periods of fast moving showers are also possible from time to time throughout the short term forecast period. By Tuesday night, model data shows the aforementioned high pressure system migrating away from the region as winds begin to decrease to a gentle flow for the remainder of the forecast period. This will allow the aforementioned trough to descend over the area, increasing the potential for showers, and flash flooding
Therefore, expect scattered showers with gusty winds for tonight through at least Monday. Numerous to widespread shwoers with a light and gentle breeze for the rest of the forecast period.
Marine
Ocean conditions from the last 12 to 16 hours have gradually build to warning thresholds. Hence, the issuance of a high surf warning for all southwest, south, and east facing shorelines. Combined seas of 10 to 13 feet with long periods peaking at 18 seconds, enhancing surfs and strong rip currents are observed along the shorelines. This is evident with surfs reaching the roadway with ocean debris at some coastal areas. This scenario will likely remain for tonight and Saturday, subsiding to advisory levels thereafter. Model data show seas remaining rough through the end of the forecast period as fresh to strong winds also remains for this time frame. Therefore, the threat of elevated seas, dangerous surfs, and deadly rip currents will remain over the coastal areas through the new week.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Warning Wind Advisory Small Craft Advisory
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