textproduct: Pocatello
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered heat of the day storms will continue into Monday afternoon.
- Early-Week Passing Trough: A shortwave tracking north of the region Monday Night into Tuesday will bring 30%50% precipitation coverage to the Central Mountains, Montana Divide, and Eastern Highlands.
- Late-Week Heat Surge: Strong Great Basin high-pressure ridging will rebuild mid-to-late week, restoring a dry, late- summer regime with valley highs returning to the 90s.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Upper level ridge builds into the area today which will remove the trigger for organized thunderstorms this afternoon. However, deep monsoonal moisture remains in place today. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop mainly across the mountains and highlands this afternoon. The high res models are picking up on this as well. Some gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will remain possible with these storms. Most of this activity should diminish this evening with the loss of the afternoon heating. But, we will likely see a repeat performance for Monday.
A shortwave trough will move over the top of the ridge through Montana Monday night into Tuesday. Models are showing that this trough may help to enhance shower and thunderstorm chance during that time.
The upper level flow switches to northwesterly with the ridge amplifying just to our west. This may help dry us out and reduce the thunderstorm chances for the second half of the week.
Temperatures will begin to warm up. Still slightly below normal for the first half of the week, but then increasing to slightly above normal for the second half of the week as the ridge amplifies.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Main issues deal with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. PROB30s seem the best way to handle this convection for most of the TAF sites once again. Confidence is slightly lower around SUN based on high res models, but not enough to remove from TAF at this point.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Isoalted to scattered thunderstorms will persist into midweek with monsoon moisture remaining in place. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy downpours are possible near storms.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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