textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak Precipitation Chances Monday: A weak feature may bring isolated thunderstorms with very little precipitation to some higher elevation areas Monday.

- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and lower to mid 80s through the weekend. Some may see near record or record highs.

- Dry And Warm Through Friday: High confidence exists for above- normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation extending through the first full week of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Very warm temperatures still on tap for this afternoon, with continued expectations for a few locations nearing or exceeding record highs. Models heading into Monday still showing isolated convection mainly across the southern highlands but a few storms still possible across the central mountains as well. Moisture remains limited, so any storms that can develop are expected to be dry with little precipitation. Gusty outflows will remain possible especially across the southern highlands. Upper ridge rebounds through the remainder of the work week, with temperatures remaining unseasonably warm. We are still seeing potential for a trough to work into the region for next weekend. Ensemble means swing trough southeast into the PacNW by Saturday, but there is still quite a bit of variability in the clusters regarding depth and timing of the feature. QPf and temperatures still remain uncertain at this time, but the NBM has trended toward cooler and wetter for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 403 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Light winds expected next 24 hours. Mid to high level clouds associated with Monday's system will arrive tonight. Previous models supported isolated afternoon storms for Monday, but latest runs have backed off of that.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Trend through Friday remains very hot and dry conditions with minimum humidity in the 15 to 25 percent range and highs in the 70s and 80s for the most part. Generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal. There remains a very slight chance of convective activity late Monday and Monday night in zones 427, 413, 422 and 476 but very and low confidence in any precipitation. Winds not forecast to be very strong this week through Thursday with some high elevation 15 to 20 mph gusts the highest. Will see a pattern change Friday into the weekend with winds increasing Friday ahead of an upper level trof which may bring some much needed precipitation Saturday and Sunday with much cooler temperatures.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.