textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat expected through Monday with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Sunday. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for much of Southeast Idaho. - Drier weather now into early next week. Red Flag Warnings in effect for central Idaho today and Sunday for combination of low humidity and wind.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

An area of high pressure will strengthen over the Southwest this weekend, which will support dry conditions with above-normal warmth and heat risk throughout the weekend timeframe. Temperatures will peak either Sunday or Monday, depending on the location. Valley locations in south-central Idaho will begin to break triple digits this afternoon and by Sunday, even the Upper Snake River Plain will break 100 degrees with widespread upper-90s to low 100s. HEAT ADVISORIES and EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS remain in effect across Southeast Idaho beginning this afternoon and will continue through Monday evening. We have upgraded numerous zones to an Excessive Heat Warning, including but not limited to, the Upper and Lower Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Valley. Overnight lows tonight will span the upper 50s to mid-60s with more widespread 60s come Sunday night. On Monday, temperatures will run within a couple degrees of Sunday's highs with valleys still warming into triple digits. We stand a chance of breaking several all-time records for daytime highs at our official climate sites. The all-time record high temperature for Pocatello is 104, which was reached in years 1969, 1990, 2000, and 2020. The official forecast for Pocatello on Sunday is 104. The all- time record high for Idaho Falls is 102, reached in 1988, and the forecast is 103 on Sunday. For both Pocatello and Idaho Falls, The GFS deterministic forecast is 107 for Sunday and the ECMWF deterministic forecast is 105. The all-time record high for Burley is 107, reached in 2000, and there is very little chance of breaking that record over the next couple of days. Challis reached an all- time high of 103 in 2002 with only 99 forecast Monday and even lower deterministic GFS and ECMWF forecast values. Based on model forecasts for Stanley, our forecast may be a bit on the high side. Stanley reached an all-time high of 96 in 2018 with 92 in the forecast on Monday. The National Blend 25 to 75th percentile temperatures for Pocatello on Sunday range 100 to 104 degrees, 98 to 102 at Idaho Falls, 95 to 99 at Burley, 98 to 101 at Challis, and 89 to 92 at Stanley. Vulnerable populations or anyone exposed to the elements for long periods of time could experience heat-related illness if precautions are not taken.

A Pacific trough moving onshore early next week will shift the area of high pressure slightly further east for the remainder of next week. This will mean fairly stable temperatures in the 90s for low elevation areas each afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 951 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

No major forecast changes with this issuance. VFR conditions are expected tonight and through Sunday. Light and variable winds overnight. Expect winds to pick up on Sunday afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 kts at all sites. Upper level clouds are moving into Eastern Idaho tonight with FEW to SCT mid and upper level clouds on Sunday afternoon with no impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until 9 pm today for zones 475 and 476 where winds are expected to gust to 30 mph at times. The main impact will continue to be heat and wind gusts Sunday and zones 476, 410 and 411 are under a red flag warning Sunday from 1 to 9 pm with wind gusts over 30 mph and humidity dropping to under 10 percent in areas. Not expecting as strong winds in other zones. Extreme heat continues through Monday with a bit of a patter change Tuesday through the remainder of next week. Expect the upper level high to shift east allowing extensive monsoonal moisture into southeast Idaho with a better chance of daily showers and thunderstorms mainly in high elevations but humidity should be at least slightly increased. Temperatures still hot but a bit below the extreme levels of today through Monday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ051>059-064- 065. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ410-411- 476. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ060>063-066>068-070- 075.