textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms possible later Monday into Tuesday

- Warm and dry conditions expected otherwise throughout the week

- Increasing potential for cooler and wet conditions by next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Weakening low pressure will skirt along our southern border over the next 36 hours. This is already bring an increase in clouds, but the question is will see any rain or thunderstorms. Any real threat for now will be across the southern highlands and central mountains starting late this afternoon. Any storms up north should end later this evening, but isolated showers and storms are possible overnight...especially across the South Hills and Albion Mountains. We may that area of precipitation shift into the southeast highlands tomorrow, but likely dissipating by then. DO NOT expect any appreciable rainfall with anything that develops, though. There is a 10-40% chance for gusts over 35 mph with development down south, including outflow winds pushing out into the Magic Valley. Beyond that, expect warm and dry conditions to continue at least Friday. Highs will remain in the 70s and 80s for valley locations, running 10-20 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE with the potential of encroaching on daily record highs.

By the weekend, all models/ensembles/AI models are showing a large trough of low pressure settling across the West. While the idea seems pretty solid, precipitation amounts and how deep this develops remains up in the air. Our Blend of Models show the potential for some appreciable moisture across our area, along with highs dropping back into the 50s by early next week. The lower end of Blend forecasts is actually even cooler than that, showing highs in the 40s for some valley locations. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 450 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Low pressure will continue to increase clouds across central and eastern Idaho. We are looking for a few showers and/or storms to develop across the central mountains and South Hills/Albion Mountains. At this point, the only airport that could be impacted is BYI in this round of TAFs. We are maintaining VCSH for that site only at the moment.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Most of this will be dry with highs running 10-20 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE. The only blip on the radar (pun intended) will be a few showers and storms later today through Tuesday. While we may see a few showers through evening across the central mountains, any real chance (still no higher than isolated coverage) will be across the South Hills/Albion Mountains (427) pushing east toward the southeast corner (413). Little to no rain is expected, with a 10-40% chance for gusts over 35 mph across Zone 427 and outflow that pushed north into the Magic Valley. Humidity values will continue to remain pretty dry, including some pockets of moderate to poor overnight recovery over the central mountains and Zone 427. By next weekend, a major shift in the pattern is expected with a deep area of low pressure across the West. It looks like we will quick trend toward wet and cooler conditions at that point.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.