textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm potential slowly increases through Friday with virga/light rain or sprinkles and gusty winds

- Better chance of rainfall is expected over the weekend

- Temperatures peak today/Wednesday before falling back to BELOW AVERAGE over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The trend through Friday continues to be for enough mid level moisture to kick of virga/light showers with gusty winds through tonight, and similar conditions with the addition of thunderstorms tomorrow through Friday. There is a 10% chance of gusts over 35 mph across the South Hills/Albion Mountains and southeast highlands with redevelopment later this evening and overnight. As the next surge increases tomorrow, we will see an increase in coverage especially over higher terrain for light rain/virga and thunderstorms. We are mainly looking at isolated storms, although coverage may briefly hit scattered tomorrow afternoon north and east of US-93 in the central mountains. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph where storms do develop, or where we get outflow boundaries to kick off across the Snake Plain north of Idaho Falls and the INL. The potential is there for gusts up to 55 mph based on probability forecasts for thunderstorm gust potential. Mid level moisture continues to stream across the state tomorrow night into Thursday, with even a small chance of overnight/morning thunderstorms...but not enough for now to put in the forecast. We will see thunderstorm potential pick up again Thursday afternoon, with isolated to borderline scattered thunderstorm coverage across portions of the central mountains, eastern and southeast highlands. Again, expect gusty outflow winds and light rain/virga. We will need to see how much clearing occurs during the afternoon for higher potential of much stronger outflow winds. Heading into Friday, we should get a break in the morning before showers and thunderstorms increases across the eastern highlands and central mountains. There will be a small increase in measurable rainfall, but still expect most showers and storms to produce light rain/virga and gust winds. Outside of showers and storms, will see a small jump in overall wind tomorrow and Thursday, with a huge jump on Friday. We MIGHT see strong enough winds for headlines across portions of the Snake Plain, but cloud cover may prevent full mixing of strong winds off the surface.

The core of the stronger low swings across the region over the weekend. That will bring a huge drop in temperatures, to the point that higher peaks may indeed see snow at times. Highs in the valleys are projected to drop into the 50s and 60s! We will be going for lack of rain to some places getting 0.50" or more across higher elevations. As the low departs on Monday, expect lingering precipitation across northern areas before drying out Tuesday. We remain breezy at times during the period, but still not thinking we would need wind-related headlines right now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1137 MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Mostly quiet aviation conditions across the scope going into early afternoon today. Mostly clear conditions will carry through the period, but moisture increases enough Wednesday to provide a little better chance of cu development and perhaps a few gusty virga showers Wednesday afternoon. Winds are not expected to get much more than 10 knots at all TAF sites. No aviation impacts expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The trend through Friday is for more mid level moisture to impact central and eastern Idaho. Lower levels will remain pretty dry, so even though we may see some measurable and light rainfall in places...expect a lot of what develops to produce more virga or sprinkles than anything else. Through tonight, we should see virga or sprinkles across higher elevations south of the Snake River (427 and 413), and also across portions of the central mountains (475 and 476). For tomorrow, light rain/virga showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated, pushing scattered across closer to the Montana border for Zones 411, 475, and 476. For now, we will NOT issue any warnings since the coverage is borderline. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph, and gusts could peak at 45-55 mph based on the latest probability forecasts for gust potential. We will also need to watch for any outflow boundaries that spill out into the Snake Plain or Magic Valley. Light showers/virga continues tomorrow night and Thursday. It looks like gusts over 35 mph are likely with stronger showers or storms. Coverage will be isolated/borderline scattered, except across Zone 411 where coverage will likely be scattered. We will re-evaluate later if we need to issue Red Flag Warnings tomorrow and/or Thursday. By Friday, a strong area low pressure moves inland. We will see an increase in winds OUTSIDE of any showers and storms. We will see gusts 20-40 mph areawide with locally higher gusts. That said, humidities rapidly increase Friday and will keep us out of critical fire weather conditions on that front...although it may still be enough if conditions align for a start or holdover to catch. Showers and storms will mainly develop across the central mountains and along the Montana border (411). Although we are still looking at mainly dry storms, there is a small uptick in wetting rains in the central mountains. Cooler temperatures, along with increasing wind and chance of wetting rains are expected as the low swings across the state. The exception for wetting rains will be 410 and 425 where 48 hour totals barely reach 0.10". Widespread wetting rains for higher elevations are expected with some totals exceeding 0.50" over both days. We are evening see the potential for some LIGHT SNOW across highest peaks and ridges going into Sunday with the core of the low crosses the central mountains.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.