textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Stronger winds this afternoon especially across higher elevations of the central mountains and Snake Plain/Magic Valley

- Quick round of showers through this evening with mostly light snow in the mountains

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 102 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We have a quick hitter swinging through this evening, bringing more wind than anything else. There will be some light precipitation coming with this, mainly in the form of snow showers across the mountains. We COULD see a few light showers across lower elevations, but chances are low especially for anything measurable. The bulk of the moisture is across the Sawtooths and surrounding mountains, and the Tetons/Big Holes/Sawtell Peak area. There is a 30-60% chance of exceeding 0.20" across the Sawtooths and 35-65% chance of exceeding that across mainly areas adjacent to the Tetons and Yellowstone. That equates to just a couple of inches of snow with locally higher amounts. Snow levels peak at 5000-6500 ft ahead of the colder air arriving. The low end of the snow level range does indicate we could see a mix or some snowflakes at lowest elevations...but nothing significant or at pass level. Now, getting to the wind...we should see that pick later this morning and last through mid evening before things quickly shut down. Many areas will see gusts 25-35 mph. We will see gusts hitting 35-50 mph across portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, especially if we can get stronger mixing going this afternoon. We currently have a WIND ADVISORY in place for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, and will leave it alone. The wind forecast overall did come down a bit since Sunday, but not enough to make any changes. We are dry most of Tuesday, with the next round quickly moving into the central mountains and eastern highlands tomorrow night. Before cooler air filters in later today, highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across valley locations. Tomorrow will see highs 5-10 degrees cooler with low 40s only forecast across the Magic Valley and south toward the Utah border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow upper ridge is in place for through Thanksgiving Day, There is still some expectation for weak energy to overtop the ridge especially Wednesday and Thanksgiving for light precipitation mainly higher elevations. Travel impacts should be minimal, if any for these days. Ensembles diverge on details for the remainder of the forecast period, but the general tone remains similar to previous days. Incoming PacNW shortwave dives south through the western states Friday into Saturday, developing a deep trough across the Intermountain West for the weekend. Showers become more widespread Friday and Saturday, with potential for light snowfall to reach valley floors by late Saturday. What could be the coldest air mass of the season so far looks possible for Sunday into early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the ensembles, and significant differences in the depth of the trough via the ensemble clusters. Thus there is still a lot of potential for change this far out in the forecast. As of now, the probabilistic chance of forecast highs BELOW freezing for lower elevations Sunday and Monday are roughly 15-35% for most lower elevation areas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 401 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We do expect some showers around through this evening but the bigger story for many will be the stronger winds. For all TAF sites except SUN, look for southwest winds at 20-30kts sustained with gusts 35-45kt possible by late morning through just after sunset. At SUN, we are likely looking a brief period of upvalley wind...quickly going back west-northwest at 15-25kts before going more northwest toward sunset and backing off in speed. Clouds will be lowering with the uptick is shower chances throughout the day, but keep things at VFR. We COULD be flirting with MVFR/high end IFR especially at SUN and DIJ with showers. DIJ will be the last site seeing showers/VCSH ending this evening, with everyone else ending during the afternoon from west to east. Right now, we don't have low clouds or fog in for Tuesday morning...but that is something to watch out for. It will be very cold in the morning which MAY allow us to get close enough to full saturation. Stay tuned.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening for IDZ051>055.