textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for a few showers and thunderstorms over the Memorial Day Weekend

- Much warmer temperatures return through Monday

- Low pressure settles in next week for cooler temperatures with more showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Satellite imagery shows northwest flow in place over the region today. Weak shortwave moving through East Idaho with minimal impact for most areas, but a few showers will still be possible mainly along and near the Montana border this afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts are expected to be minimal with any convection that does manage to develop. Similar conditions are forecast for the next few days as the flow aloft shifts from northwest flow, through zonal, to southwest flow. Temperatures continue to trend upwards through the Memorial Day weekend for both daytime highs and overnight lows. At this point, additional Frost/Freeze headlines are NOT likely moving through the next week. High-res short term models maintain pockets of afternoon/evening convection, mostly weak and focused over higher terrain.

Moving into the upcoming work week, there is increased agreement on how the next Pacific low impacts East Idaho, at least for early in the week. Ensemble clusters show closed or nearly closed low centered along the PacNW coast late Monday/Memorial Day. Although moisture looks to increase across the region Monday afternoon, convection still remains confined to higher elevations with minimal precipitation amounts. Upper low shifts closer to Idaho Tuesday then deepens into the Great Basin for Wednesday. Ensembles begin to diverge again at this point. There is increasing chances for precipitation for most areas starting Tuesday and continuing through the week. Temperatures cool slightly under the influence of the increased moisture, cloud cover, and potential precipitation, but still remain near normal by the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 425 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

No major changes to the forecast for our terminals this evening. Winds generally remain light with some FEW to SCT mid and upper level clouds across Eastern Idaho. A few pop up showers have gotten going, but they look to stay far enough north to not impact SUN or DIJ and even if they pass overhead, it is QUITE dry out there, so getting any precipitation at the surface would be unlikely. Staying mild overnight and for the start of Saturday, but we will see wind gusts close to 20 kts by the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Memorial Day Weekend will definitely be warmer with highs returning to the 70s and 80s through Monday. There is some concern, however, for a few light showers (more likely sprinkles and virga) and storms each day. For today, that potential lies across most of the central mountains and across Zone 411 along the Montana border. For Saturday, the potential is slightly lower, but still there mainly across Zones 413 and 427. That potential increases on Sunday in similar areas, with some bleedover into portions of the Magic Valley (425) and Snake Plain (south end of 410). While elsewhere the potential is much lower, it is still around 10% in several areas. The main concern will be lack of wetting rain and gusty winds. For Monday, the focus for any showers and storms shifts to the central mountains for the most part. Precipitation amounts are still light. For Tuesday and beyond, low pressure settles across the area for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Even if we end up with lower precipitation amounts, temperatures drop back into the 60s to mid 70s.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.