textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier weather returns today and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Cool front/dry line arrives today. Still debatable if enough dry air works into the region before convection fires off. The NAM, GFS and HREF keeps things pretty dry, but the HRRR continues to fire off showers and thunderstorms around Arco and propagates them east to near IF and Rexburg by 00z. Decided to add a slight chance for storms in that area, but its likely that if we see anything it will probably be just virga. With that said, we could still see some descent wind gusts from the virga showers if they develop.

Dry weather is likely into early next week. Hot conditions arrive over the weekend. Heat risk values are strongly pinging some form of heat products across much of our central and east Idaho and have been consistently doing so. Temps in the upper 90s to around 100 looks very likely for many of our communities. These temperatures will flirt with daily records at many sites. Given the consistency that we've been seeing will roll with a heat watch for Saturday and Sunday. Looks breezy as well over the weekend with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range for many. This hot weather looks like it will continue into Monday, perhaps backing off some on Tuesday. Could see the heat products extending into early next week, but with less confidence at this time. Potential monsoon flow from the south looks to arrive for Wednesday and beyond bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, added cloud cover, and somewhat lower temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Outside threat for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon which could affect IDA. Probability is too low to mention in TAF at this time. Otherwise could see some wind gusts at TAF sites to near 20 kts this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across zone 413 this afternoon. If storms develop, gusty outflow winds are likely. Otherwise very dry weather arrives for the weekend. This will allow hot weather to set in and breezy conditions as well. Depending upon fuel conditions, could see critical fire weather conditions over a large portion of the area.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for IDZ051>068-070-075.