textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat conditions persist today, with temperatures a bit cooler and fairly stable for the rest of the week

- Monsoon moisture increases with a higher potential for showers and thunderstorms returning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Above-normal warmth will persist for the foreseeable future with forecast highs today around 10 degrees above climatological norms. In spite of temperatures remaining above average, a trough ascending out of Canada will cool daytime temperatures by several degrees each day through mid-week. Highs will span the 90s across the low elevations through early next week while overnight lows remain in the upper-50s and 60s. As the ridge is pushed further east, monsoonal moisture will increasingly be advected northward into Southeast Idaho. Isolated thunderstorm chances will exist across central Idaho this afternoon with storms remaining dry and most likely to produce virga with gusty winds up to around 45 mph. Storm coverage will trend scattered and capable of producing rain heading into mid-week as precipitable water peaks on Wednesday at just over one inch. Heading into later week, ensembles show an area of high pressure setting up over the central U.S. with Idaho on the periphery of it. This is resulting in National Blend temperatures stabilizing during the latter half of the week. Uncertainty increases during this timeframe though as ensembles differ on the exact placement of the upper level low off the PacNW coast. This will impact how much moisture is able to make it through the strengthening ridge and thus how much convection develops, with a large ensemble spread in PWAT values noted.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Mid/high level clouds are expected to increase somewhat through the period as upper level moisture pushes in to the region. There's a low, but nonzero, chance of some dry thunderstorms in the vicinity of KSUN which could cause some gustier winds there. Probability remains too low to include mention at this time. This potential looks to increase across the area into Tuesday though potentially impacting other terminals just beyond the current forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Temperatures will begin a slow downward trend throughout the week, although highs will remain ABOVE AVERAGE and in the 90s overall for valley locations. Temperatures will remain hot enough today, especially when looking at this accumulatively, that heat-related stress is still likely today for crews out working current or any new fires. With the ridge slipping a bit more eastward today and throughout the week, monsoon moisture will shift more across Idaho throughout the week. We will likely see an increase in afternoon cloud buildups, which has a low potential of producing virga and wind gusts of 35-45 mph. We are expecting isolated dry storms across the central mountains this afternoon and evening, with a 10-40% chance of gusts of 35-45 mph. Starting tomorrow, deeper monsoon moisture will stream across Idaho daily, for any increasing chance of showers and storms. This will bring higher coverage of thunderstorms in some areas off and on, and also some higher chance of wetting rains. This will likely change day to day depending on smaller scale features/waves moving through in this pattern. This type of pattern lends itself to less lead-time perhaps on any type of critical fire weather headlines, but this is an issue that may become a problem as early as Tuesday. Outside of storms, gusts of 15-25 mph are expected almost each afternoon and evening with locally higher gusts.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>059-064-065. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ060>063- 066>068-070-075.