textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for more showers and thunderstorms

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate based on early day cloud cover

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This pattern looks to stay heading all the way into next week. We have a surge of deeper monsoon moisture moving through this morning, but should shift east by this evening and actually be storm-free through tomorrow morning. Today is one of those instances where early day cloud cover may keep instability down enough to where thunderstorm coverage remains isolated, with a few pockets here and there (nothing widespread) of scattered or higher coverage. Where we stay with more clouds and more stable, expect lighter precipitation. Where we can maximize stability and get some decent storms going this afternoon, locally heavier rainfall is possible (more than 0.20" with any given single storm). The risk of outflow winds over 35 mph is lower, generally no higher than 30%. The next surge of monsoon moisture arrives during the day, but the overall footprint shows light precipitation, even with any stronger storms potentially developing. This is also reflected in higher percentages for gusts of 35-55 mph (20-60%), meaning the airmass is going to dry enough to support wind vs heavier rainfall.

As the ridge shifts slightly back to the northwest heading into the weekend, this pushes the deeper plume of monsoon moisture back across Idaho. This means an increasing chance of measurable and appreciable rainfall especially with any stronger storms that can form. In reality, this pattern maintains itself into the early part of next week. Temperatures will likely remain ABOVE AVERAGE with temperatures in 80s and 90s. It will be interesting to see if we see temperatures being held down in the 80s on days where monsoon moisture (clouds and/or precipitation) is more present. Even if temperatures are held in check those days, ABOVE AVERAGE is still expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 428 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Pockets of showers are possible this morning, with isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon. The chance of outflow gusts is lower today, 10-30% for over 30kts. By afternoon, any potential is likely confined to near PIH, IDA, and DIJ. We will maintain VCSH for now at various airports throughout the day. We should see dry and storm-free conditions by late evening and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our monsoon pattern keeps hold over Idaho heading into next week. We have a deeper surge moving through this morning, shifting east of us by this evening. For today, thunderstorms will likely remain isolated with a few pockets where scattered coverage exists...but that is not looking to be widespread at the moment. The chance of outflow winds over 35 mph is lower today, nothing higher than 30%. On the flip side, like yesterday we may see some spots with locally heavy downpours with over 0.20" with any given storm. The next surge of monsoon moisture arrives during the day tomorrow, but looks "dry" enough for lighter rainfall amounts even where we get thunderstorms to develop. Tomorrow may be an interesting day due as lack of earlier day cloud cover MAY produce more instability, and increased lightning coverage across higher elevations. That will be a trend that needs to be monitored for any potential critical fire weather concerns. There is higher chance of gusts of 35-55 mph (20-60%) with even higher chances across southwest and far western Idaho.

The ridge shift backs to the northwest a bit through the weekend, pushing deeper monsoon moisture back across central and eastern Idaho. This should bring a higher potential of wetting rains areawide, with lightning coverage highly dependent on where we get cloud breaks and better instability each day. This overall pattern remains in place into next week, with some expected shifting east or west of the main plume of moisture as low pressure well to the northwest tries to nudge the ridge east once again...even if briefly. Temperatures should remain ABOVE AVERAGE in the 80s and 90s..

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.