textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog and low cloudiness this morning.

- Possible light shower activity from Rexburg northeastward.

- Next winter storm arrives Monday/Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today through Sun night...weak embedded trough moving through the longwave upper level ridge may trigger some showers in the northeast corner of the forecast area, but otherwise is having little effect on the weather forecast. The upper level ridge allowed a moist boundary layer to form, and this continues this morning with widespread stratus below 1000ft AGL, even penetrating into the central Idaho mountains in the Wood and Lost River valleys, to the high points in all those areas, such as Chilly, Galena, and Gilmore. There is fog, but not at the intensity of yesterday morning, so likely no Dense Fog Advisory unless webcams indicate more development later this morning. Hourly NBM data indicates at least some partial clearing for the Wood River valley, the Snake River plain, and the eastern Magic Valley for the afternoon. This is less clear for Teton Valley. Current indications are that the lower elevations are seeing lower moisture content tonight, and that should carry into Sat with much less issue. Expect sunny and much warmer conditions for both Sat afternoon and Sun.

Should skies clear, temperatures will warm into the 40s at the lower elevation; but if the stratus does not break, it could be 5 to 10 degrees colder in the heavily populated zones of the forecast area. The clearer skies overnight should lead to colder temperatures for the southeast half of the forecast area.

With the approach of a trough that is coming in from the west, wind will be on the increase, which also helps with the fog and stratus issues. This should start Sat afternoon and continue for Sun afternooon, with overnight decreases.

Mon through Thu...The upper level trough, once expected to start widespread precipitation by Sun, is now slowed down in the forecast to have that occur Mon and Mon night, with Mon night having the heavier precipitation period. It appears to linger into Tue/Tue night, then there is a risk for the remainder of this period at around the 20 to 50 percent risk level for each 6 hour period. Temperatures are expected to be even warmer for Mon and Tue, then cool down to normal highs for Wed. So it should be primarily rain at Snake River plain-type elevations, with a rain and snow mix up to 7500ft elevation. With the winter storm overhead, wind stays in the breezy to windy category.

No cluster information was available at issue time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 404 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Main forecast problem is the extensive layer of stratus with occaional fog underneath as is shown on satellite imagery. This is wreaking havoc even in KSUN where the CIGs have the strongest impact. KSUN will need a northwest surface wind to push this cloud deck out. Since it does not seem to happen this morning, the best that can be hoped for is a lifting by insolation to tolerable IFR conditions, and perhaps later to marginal VFR conditions around 13/19Z. If the southerly component continues, it may have a very tough time breaking at all. In the Teton Valley, KDIJ has struggled all night, but had at least a temporary breakthrough just before TAF issuance time. It is already starting to lower again, and IFR or worse conditions are expected through 13/21Z. The three valley airdromes are marginal VFR with only KIDA at risk for IFR, all of this due to CIG. Sky should have an unlimited CIG during the afternoon, at least for a few hours, then tonight a return to marginal VFR, with only slight potential for IFR conditions returning.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.