textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions through the rest of this week

- Inversions should strengthen again even if briefly

- Precipitation returns by the first part of next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Dry conditions remain in place as high pressure briefly builds across the region. We did tweak temperatures down several degrees based on potential inversion conditions for some higher valleys, like Stanley. Higher resolution models are trying to produce some patchy log clouds and maybe even some fog. The Blend of Models is handling that potential, but it's possible that we won't see much if anything form. That is based on there SHOULD have been low clouds in spots this morning based on those models, and nothing formed. Time will tell.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

The pattern eventually breaks down for the start of next, but we've seen this story time and time again this winter so far. The GFS, ECMWF, ensembles, and AI versions of those models are bringing in precipitation Sunday evening with a potential first round last through Tuesday afternoon. The pattern does favor the central mountains and eastern highlands at this point. There has been some flip- flopping on how much moisture might fall with this event, with our Blend of Models leaning toward the wetter ECMWF and its set of models. Currently, there is a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.50" of moisture across the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges, as well as the higher elevations around Island Park and Tetons. There is a 15-30% chance for over 0.75 in the same locations. It is moisture which is something we've been needing around these parts. Unfortunately, it is mostly if not all rain below 6000-6500ft. We COULD see some light snow below that range, but right now there is no sign it accumulates or sticks around long where it does. The pattern remains fairly active later on in the week, but again we are cautious about any major patter change within any longer range forecast at the moment.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 930 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure keeps skies with CIG/VSBY unlimited. Little to no risk of BR/FG/Stratus creating impactful conditions. Wind continues light, at times driven by slope-valley interactions.

AIR QUALITY

Issued at 119 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

A large high pressure ridge aloft moves overhead Wednesday and air stagnation advisories have been re-issued through the weekend with the air stagnation expected to increase through the next few days.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for IDZ054-059.