textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record highs possible through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures 20-25 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE

- A few showers possible near Island Park Monday, otherwise dry until Wednesday afternoon

- Breezy conditions expected Monday and Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

The race is on for those of us who haven't hit 80 for a high temperature this year, and also hit 90. Most locations will cross the finish line, so to speak, by Wednesday across eastern Idaho. High pressure holds tough until then, except briefly tomorrow. A weak low passing by will briefly knock down the ridge, which for the most part helps kick up some wind. All of the models hint a chance of a shower or storm along the Montana border, through Island Park, and into Yellowstone and Tetons mid afternoon through early evening. There is even a hint along the Utah border. It seems more plausible for SOMETHING to form up north, so we did include the potential for isolated development there. In all honesty, it will likely be virga, but we thought it was prudent (as well as surrounding offices) to include a mention. Otherwise, Tuesday and most of Wednesday looks storm- free. This pattern, especially with some help downslope tomorrow and Wednesday will drive temperatures up rapidly. We should see widespread 70s and 80s in the valleys tomorrow, with widespread temperatures in the 80s and low 90s for lower elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. If you look at some of the probability information for highs in the Blend of Models, we still might be a couple of degrees cooler than the highest end of forecast ranges suggest. This is especially true for Wednesday if we end up with a lot more sunshine. IF we end up with more sun or at least some help from downslope winds, some places may indeed hit 95 degrees. It is a low chance, but still a chance. With the low passing by tomorrow, winds do increase with a brief period of hitting WIND ADVISORY thresholds around Craters and across the INL. At the moment, is there is not enough potential there to issue an advisory. We see winds pick up again Wednesday as high pressure slips east and ahead of the next low moving inland. Right now, we appear short of hitting any thresholds for wind-related headlines.

For Wednesday evening onward...the best chance early on for storms will be the central mountains and along the Montana border. We COULD see a few showers or storms elsewhere, but the chance is really low right now. There is a better chance overall Thursday into Friday. The timing on when the potential drops off depends on how quickly the low moves east of the Rockies. For Thursday, a super majority of the cluster forecasts are on the slower side and keep the low still west of Idaho. Meanwhile, the current versions of the GFS and ECMWF already have the low crossing into or across the state and into the Plains by Friday afternoon. The cluster forecasts are more evenly split between speeding up low's progress or still keeping it across or still west of the state. All of the cluster forecast and models agree that the first low is out of our hair, but another area of strengthening low pressure moves in for next weekend. This will keep temperatures cooler and a continued chance of precipitation around.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1053 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

High pressure continues to mean unlimited VSBY and for now unlimited CIGs. Skies run from SKC to FEW at mid-level and higher, mostly early this afternoon and tomorrow morning.

Wind appears to be weaker today compared to yesterday. With an approaching trough tomorrow, wind in the mid-morning should shift to south to southwest and get gusty by late morning.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.