textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak Precipitation Chances Monday: A weak feature may bring isolated thunderstorms with very little precipitation to some higher elevation areas Monday.

- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and lower to mid 80s through the weekend. Some may see near record or record highs.

- Dry And Warm Through Friday: High confidence exists for above- normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation extending through the first full week of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

High pressure remains across East Idaho this weekend, and for much of next week. Daytime highs climb to near or above records for Sunday and Monday for some locations, with readings reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s for most lower elevations. The only wrinkle in the forecast arrives Monday, as several models are still trying to swing some potential convection into the region associated with a weak feature pushing through the flow. The NBM is still washing out this potential, so blended in some higher PoPs from short term ensembles and capped at isolated. The best chances appear to remain across the southern highlands and portions of the central mountains, for now, and some of the models are indicating potential for outflows. So added gusty winds to forecast where thunder was included. QPF looks quite limited, regardless. After the feature shifts through, ridge rebounds for dry conditions through the remainder of the week. Temperatures cool slightly, but remain warm. Looking ahead to next weekend, the operational GFS and ECMWF are swinging a deeper, more robust trough into the PacNW. Ensemble means carry a trough through the region next weekend as well, just less amplified than the operational runs. It could mean a transition to cooler temperatures and a return of some precipitation to East Idaho.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

No impacts expected through Sunday morning. Clear skies or a few cirrus high level clouds is only thing expected. Mainly light and variable winds at PIH, IDA, BYI, and DIJ with normal diurnal wind shifts at SUN.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1248 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Minimal impacts through Sunday with very warm conditions and very low minimum humidity in the 15 to 25 percent range with localized areas below 15 percent. Winds not expected to be a factor at all under high pressure however. On Monday a slight chance of convective activity mainly in zones 427, 413, 422, and 476. Very low confidence in this occurring but the only day it looks to be a slight chance. Tuesday through Friday will be dry and continued very warm with low humidity continuing.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.