textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow slowly moves into the central mountains Monday and across the rest of eastern Idaho Tuesday

- Impactful snowfall expected above 6500ft although snow may fall (not necessarily accumulate) down to lowest valley floors

- Colder air continues to filter in throughout the week with a continued chance of rain and snow

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Dry conditions are expected through tonight, although a few light showers possible across portions of the Frank Church and north of Banner Summit. Light precipitation will be very slow to progress east until tomorrow evening, with the best chance until that point north and west of Galena Summit to Leadore. The storm slowly works across eastern Idaho Tuesday and Tuesday night. Although this is another split flow system, it appears the main part of this low will actually swing closer to eastern Idaho vs. the last one and pull away to the southeast. We are seeing just a slight increase in precipitation totals over the past 24 hours. Favored areas of precipitation are still across the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges, the eastern highlands (including Island Park), and the South Hills/Albion Mountains through the Bear River Range. Amounts up to 0.50" are currently in the forecast from WPC, with some locally higher amounts along the Montana border and into portions of Lemhi County. Other mountain ranges are generally looking at 0.35" or less. For most lower valleys look for a few hundredths to around 0.20-0.25". Higher end amounts in the valleys, central mountains, and eastern highlands are due to stronger upslope conditions. In terms of snowfall, most snowfall accumulations will be above 6500ft although some light accumulations may occur between 5000-6000ft...especially north of Idaho Falls and Island Park area. We would not be surprised to see a mix of rain and snow or wet snow falling on the back side of the storm and cold front, although accumulations are not forecast at the moment. Snowfall is generally 1-4" across the mountains, with a few spot seeing 4-8". Most of those spots are above 9000ft, although Galena and Banner Summits are slated to see 4-5.5" potentially. With this being over 48 hours and even with looking at periods of heavier snowfall, we are not seeing enough impacts to travel and such for any WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY headlines for now. The concern again is that some of the higher resolution models/ensembles and the AI versions of models producing 0.20-0.40" more precipitation, if not more on higher ridgelines. Given the pattern, those types of numbers are not very plausible and/or have any type of confidence to boost the forecast. It will be interesting to see where models trend in the next 24 hours. The models continue to show a rather chaotic pattern with multiple storms moving through the western U.S. The concern is that split flow continues to dominate the pattern, so trying to pinpoint more precipitation with any one of those storms is pretty difficult. If any trend exists, it is toward cooler temperatures...which would mean a better potential for snow or a mix at lower elevations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1037 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions continue with generally light winds across all of East Idaho. The next system looks to increase moisture at mid and upper levels late in the forecast period for SUN, but precipitation appears to hold off there until after 00Z Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.