textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for more showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day with the most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate based on early day cloud cover

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A couple of lingering thunderstorms are finally fizzling early this morning. We should see a break for a bit until early in the afternoon, when the next surge of monsoon moisture arrives. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and last into this evening. There is a 30-70% chance of for gusts over 35 mph reaching potentially 55-60 mph. There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms across the central mountains south through the Magic Valley to the Utah border. This matches the highest potential area for stronger gusts, but it is likely any storm (especially where it remains a bit drier at the surface or can get a stronger storm to form) will see that potential. There will likely be lingering showers and even a couple of thunderstorms past midnight. Right now, we have any chance under 10% but that may need to be bumped up in later forecasts if this trend continues. We will see a repeat tomorrow with a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms as the main push of monsoon moisture is across Idaho. We will need to monitor how overnight precipitation and cloud cover impact the pattern tomorrow morning. If we have a lot of lingering clouds, we may easily end up where it is too stable for a lot of thunderstorms, or vice- versa. With this surge of deeper moisture, we will see a mix of dry and rain-producing thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, should see overall better potential for measurable rainfall and locally heavy rainfall IF we can get stronger storms to develop. Higher instability would also push the risk of outflow winds over 35 mph higher. Right now, it is sitting in the 50-80% range.

A system passing to our north, pushes the deeper monsoon moisture briefly to our east again over the weekend. It will not be enough to completely drop any chance of showers or storms especially for Sunday. The pattern reloads as the ridge shifts back to the west and pulls the deeper overall plume of moisture across Idaho. There are some indications that it may push the main plume back to our west enough that we see lower chances of showers and storms each day, but still not a zero chance if that does happen. Temperatures remain ABOVE AVERAGE through the forecast with 90s for afternoon highs. On days where cloud cover is more extensive, highs may stay in the 80s which is still warmer than we should be this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions to continue overnight into Thursday as showers and thunderstorms have mostly fizzled out. A few isolated showers linger, but are not expected to impact TAF sites now. Have PROB30/VCTS in on Thursday afternoon for the next round of monsoon moisture at all sites. Confidence is low to moderate on a storm actually passing directly over any of the terminals, but they will be nearby and stronger storms could produce gusts around 40 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The monsoon pattern reloads today and tomorrow with a deeper surge of monsoon moisture arriving, especially for Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop early this afternoon and continue through this evening. Coverage doesn't necessarily look scattered on a widespread basis, but we do expect some areas to hit that threshold. There are currently no RED FLAG WARNINGS out for scattered thunderstorms for central and eastern Idaho today, but that will have to be looked at later this morning. There is a 30-70% chance of for outflow winds over 35 mph, trying to peak at 50-60 mph. Higher probabilities are concentrated across the central mountains, and across southern Idaho (413/425/427). It is likely that any stronger storm across central and eastern Idaho has the potential. The question will be overnight/Friday morning showers and isolated thunderstorms. A couple of the higher resolution models want to hold on to that potential past midnight and through part of tomorrow morning, while others want to rapidly end things around midnight. We do have a 15% chance of less of showers or storms during this period, but that may need to be bumped up if the trend shows higher confidence in something overnight. Tomorrow looks like the best day through the weekend for showers and thunderstorms, with the deepest moisture across the state at that time. Thunderstorm coverage tomorrow will be higher, but a couple of things to go along with that are 1) tomorrow has a much better chance of wetting rains especially across higher elevations, and 2) it is highly dependent on the amount of morning sunshine. If we have more morning cloud cover that expected, it will be less unstable and would cut down on lightning potential. That also would cut down on the possibility of locally heavy rainfall. The chance of wetting rain for today is no higher than 30% in some areas. For Friday, it is running 20-60% over most of central and eastern Idaho.

A system passing to our north temporarily pushes the main plume of monsoon moisture south and east of us by Sunday. We still are looking for some shower and thunderstorm development even with that occurring. This would trend things back toward a mix of wet and dry storms. The ridge shifts back west early next week, pulling the main plume of moisture back across Idaho. This will keep the stormy pattern in place for a while. Temperatures remain ABOVE AVERAGE even on days where we might have a bit more cloud cover.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.