textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and gusty winds continue through Friday evening

- Limited travel impacts for higher passes

- Warm and dry conditions by the weekend and last well into next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

Showers persist early this afternoon, even between storms, mainly over the mountains. As the next system passes through the region, we will see an uptick in rain and snow closer to sunrise areawide. By Friday afternoon most of the moisture shifts into the eastern and southeast highlands, and is over around midnight. There will be some additional "enhancement", including a few thunderstorms, due to a convergence band developing from around Rexburg into the Teton Valley. Wind gusts remain in the 25-35 mph range through this evening, and again tomorrow. There could be some localized higher gusts as well. Looking at precipitation amounts, we may not see much at all other than sprinkles/flurries at lower elevations. A common theme is 0.10-0.40" for higher elevations. The higher resolution models that feed into our Blend of Models are pushing more localized totals 0.50-0.70" across higher terrain especially in the Sawtooths and adjacent to Yellowstone and the Tetons. There is a 35-45% chance of more than 0.50" for the spine of the Sawtooths and 30-50% on our side of the border in the Big Holes and bordering YNP and Tetons. The chance of more than 0.70" is only 5-15%. Given the speed of the wave and showery nature of things, there overall chance of the very high end numbers is going to be lower than what is depicted. In terms of snowfall, accumulations should be limited to above 7500ft, although light snow is possible in the Stanley Basin and protected valleys due to colder valley temperatures. A couple of inches of snow are possible over highest passes, but travel impacts should be very limited. That said, that quick drop in visibility due to a burst of snow or stronger wind gust is there...just pretty low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

The extended portion of the forecast looks mostly dry with upper ridging in place for the weekend and the first few days of the upcoming work week. Temps Saturday do look to run on the cooler side of normal with highs mainly in the 40s expected although a few spots near the Utah border may briefly climb above 50. H5 heights rise Sunday into Monday as the ridge amplifies with above normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming work week. Mid 50s to lower 60s look likely in valley locations for much of next week with maybe even some mid 60s possible by mid-week. This is certainly quite mild for mid November! No precip chances expected until at least Thursday and even then, chances are still 20 percent or less. Things COULD become a bit more unsettled Friday and into next weekend with models showing the potential for a trough to dig into the PacNW but we'll see where things trend over the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 441 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

Conditions have just cleared at all five airdromes, which will mean a break for the evening, but starting this late evening yet another impulse moves through southern Idaho, bringing SHRA/SHSN mainly in the early morning to mid-morning hours. Only KPIH and KDIJ have a risk that rises above 50 percent, and so get TEMPO groups or better. For the other airports, KIDA and KBYI have PROB30 groups during that time and KSUN only rates VCSH. Another consideration is RA versus SN. KDIJ has a solid risk of SHSN in the morning hours, with temperature finally warming above freezing around 07/17Z.

With the precipitation, and for a few hours after the precipitation ends, there are risks of marginal VFR for CIG at KBYI, KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ. KDIJ may also see marginal VFR for VSBY at KDIJ with SHSN and BR in the morning, possibly leading into the early afternoon.

Finally, the wind. Wind is subsiding with no gusts already at this hour, and should remain light until the approach of the trough and the precipitation. KIDA appears to have the strongest wind, peaking during the afternoon at G30KT. KDIJ, KPIH, and KBYI should have SWly wind at G25KT. Finally, until the gradient shifts to NWly for KSUN, expect sheltered wind, but by 07/19Z the down valley wind should also approach G25KT.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.