textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash Flood Risk & Active Flood Watches: Deep monsoonal moisture carrying Precipitable Water (PWAT) values near the 99th percentile has prompted a Flood Watch for the Eastern and Southeastern Highlands, as well as the Wapiti Burn Scar in the Central Mountains. Slow-moving thunderstorms will be capable of torrential rainfall, localized flash flooding, and debris flows on recent burn scars. Secondary storm hazards include gusty outflow winds and small hail.

- Noticeably Cooler Today: Extensive cloud cover will keep daytime highs limited to the 80s in lower elevations and mid- to-upper 70s in the mountains. - Late-Week Pattern Shift & Returning Heat: A drying and warming trend begins Thursday. High temperatures will climb back into the mid-90s across lower valleys this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Early morning radar shows showers filtering into the South Hills region from the south. Southwest flow will continue to stream deep monsoonal moisture into Southeast Idaho today, which will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity will taper off early this morning before a shortwave feature enhances another round of organized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms will be wet today, capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding. The FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for the east and southeast highlands, where confidence in flash flooding impacts is highest, as well as for the Wapiti burn scar due to the risk of debris flows. Storms will be capable of producing 35 to 45 mph outflow winds, as well. Today's high temperatures will be noticeably cooler, running around normal to slightly below normal with widespread 80s across the low elevations. With the exception of some lingering chances for isolated showers and storms late week, conditions will trend dry with above normal temperatures returning for the end of the week and weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Another organized round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive this afternoon through evening, with PROB30s at all sites for -TSRA, although heavy downpours and resultant reductions in VIS remains possible. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing outflow winds 35 to 45 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Southwest flow will continue to stream deep monsoonal moisture into Southeast Idaho today, which will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity will taper off early this morning before a shortwave feature enhances another round of activity this afternoon and evening. Storms will be very wet today and capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding with precipitable water values ranging up to 1.5" across Southeast Idaho. While thunderstorm coverage will reach scattered across most of our forecast area today, the extremely moist nature of the storms has prompted the decision to not issue a Red Flag Warning for any of our Fire Weather Zones. Probability of wetting rain is highest across Fire Weather Zones 475 and 476, 411, as well as the extreme eastern extents of Zones 410 and 413. The higher confidence in heavy rainfall in these areas has resulted in the issuance of a FLOOD WATCH for the east and southeast highlands, as well as for the Wapiti burn scar due to the risk of debris flows. Storms will be capable of producing 35 to 45 mph outflow winds, as well. Today's high temperatures will be noticeably cooler, running around normal to slightly below normal with widespread 80s across the low elevations. With the exception of some lingering chances for isolated showers and storms late week, conditions will trend dry with above normal temperatures returning for the end of the week and weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for IDZ058>066.