textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat expected through the weekend with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday. heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for many areas.

- Drier weather expected over the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A weak shortwave trough is present over the northern Great Basin today. The models have been picking up on mid level moisture around 500 mb associated with that trough. This is confirmed by satellite imagery during the overnight hours showing some patchy mid level clouds across the northern Great Basin. The combination of steep lapse rates with the incoming heat and the added weak lift from this trough, the models are picking up on some isolated dry thunderstorms across central and east Idaho this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds are possible this afternoon given the steep lapse rates. Most of this activity should dissipate by 03z this evening.

Still seeing very hot temperatures for the weekend with the center of a strong ridge moving through the central Great Basin. Temps will be approaching upper 90s to around 100 on Saturday with 100 degree temps looking more widespread on Sunday. A combination of heat advisories and warnings are in effect for the weekend. The warnings are mainly along the Utah border, closer to the more intense heat. Bear Lake County is in the advisory with higher base elevations there offering a couple degrees of very slightly cooler temps; enough to affect the heat risk values. Breezy conditions are likely across the weekend as well with the stronger winds across the central mountains into the upper Snake River Plain. Warnings and advisories may need to be extended into Monday. The temps on Monday look slightly cooler as the center of the ridge moves into the northern Plains, but temps will still be in the upper 90s to around 100 across much of the area. As we head into mid week and beyond the heat backs off a little with highs expected to be in the low and mid 90s. We get into a monsoonal pattern next week where the storms and clouds will help take the edge off the heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Main concern today is isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon. Potentially these would affect most sites but probably not SUN as most of the activity looks like it will be south and east of there. Will most likely include a PROB30 at most sites this afternoon for gusty outflow winds as the main impact.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain possible over the weekend as gusty winds are expected. Very hot and dry weather is likely with temps in the 90s to around 100 and humidities falling into the lower teens or single digits.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>055-060>068-070-075. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ056>059.