textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Fourth of July should remain dry with some afternoon breezy conditions

- Thunderstorms return starting Sunday

- Warmer temperatures should remain in place through next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

We are expecting thunderstorms to bookend the Fourth of July, with the Fourth itself remaining dry and storm-free. Thunderstorm potential should remain across higher elevations, especially from Mackay to Island Park and across the South Hills/Albion Mountains and southeast highlands. We are looking at a few storms potentially developing across the Snake Plain, which may end up being along outflow boundaries...although we did see a few storms develop north and east of Idaho Falls yesterday without outflow present. Today's round should be wrapped up by midnight. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph with some storms, potentially pushing toward 45 mph. Precipitation will be minimal, but still a few storms could produce measurable rainfall. Gusts outside of storms should stay under 25 mph.Tomorrow, we do expect some mid level clouds and afternoon cumulus developing, but the lack of a strong wind or thunderstorm signal in the models shows that we may just see some virga. The overall wind potential tomorrow is similar to today, with gusts not getting any higher than 25 mph. For Sunday, a bit stronger surge of mid level moisture looks to target the central mountains with some showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and evening. We may also see something develop east of I-15, but the current chance is under 15%. With dry air in place, especially outside of the central mountains, expect mostly virga and gusty winds. Where continue to see a lot of surface moisture lingering, there is a slightly higher chance of measurable rainfall...but the main issue will be gusty winds. Highs for the weekend race through the mid 70s and 80s and into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

We do set up through most of next week under a monsoon-type pattern, with southwest flow pulling some moisture up into Idaho. Temperatures will remain warm with a lot of 80s and low 90s for afternoon highs down low. Unless we get a decent shot of rain with any particular batch of storms coming through, we may end with mostly light rain/virga and storms with gusty winds. By the end of next week and next weekend, there is some debate on what pattern sets up over Idaho. There is still pretty much an even split the cluster forecasts, ECMWF and its ensembles, and the GFS and its ensembles. The cluster want to develop a rather strong high centered over us or just to our south. If that sets up over us, we will likely see very warm/hot temperatures developing. If it sets up just to our south, we end up either dry west to southwest with minimal potential for rain and thunderstorms. It would still remain warm, fairly similar to what we are expecting for the first part of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 948 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Convection has dissipated for the night. Expect light winds through the night and into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

There is a risk of thunderstorms and weak showers this afternoon and evening, with only the northern Sawtooth NF and the BLM lands appearing to avoid the risk. Will be most widespread in zones 427, 413, and 411. The Independence Day holiday itself has no risk of thunder or showers, with temperatures up around 4 deg and many lower elevations crossing the 90 degree threshold for highs and afternoon humidity in those same elevations crashing below 15 percent, save for portions of the Salmon- Challis NF and the Targhee NF. This dryness continues into Sunday.

Combine this dryness with extremely deep mixing heights (instability) in the afternoon, and conditions are ripe for high intensity fires. The saving grace is the light wind expected throughout the weekend. Will start to see an increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday in zones 475 and 476, then isolated storms everywhere on Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.