textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for more showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day with the most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate based on early day cloud cover

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Main impact is southerly flow aloft is continuing to pump monsoonal moisture into southeast and central Idaho. There will be a threat daily for the next week. As of now activity Thursday looks to be slightly more widespread than today with Friday even more active and a pretty high chance for everyone. Sunday will be the day with the best chance of the least convective activity at this point with an increase again early next week. Humidity will be fairly high for Idaho with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s through the next 7 or 8 days. It will remain above normal with highs expected to remain in the 90s in lower elevations with days with minimal cloud cover hitting the upper 90s and lower 90s in higher cloud cover and thunderstorm coverage. Lows generally upper 50s and 60s in low elevations and mid 40s to mid 50s mountains. Winds not expected to be impactful with generally light speeds other than near any thunderstorm outflows.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 526 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Have taken mentions of VCSH out of TAFs for the rest of this evening as radar is fairly quiet at the moment. Will have to watch showers and storms lifting northward out of NV and UT, but models have activity diminishing as it moves north. Expect VFR conditions to continue overnight into Thursday. Have PROB30/VCTS in on Thursday afternoon for the next round of monsoon moisture at BYI, SUN, and DIJ.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our monsoon pattern keeps hold over Idaho heading into next week. We have a deeper surge moving through this morning, shifting east of us by this evening. For today, thunderstorms will likely remain isolated with a few pockets where scattered coverage exists...but that is not looking to be widespread at the moment. The chance of outflow winds over 35 mph is lower today, nothing higher than 30%. On the flip side, like yesterday we may see some spots with locally heavy downpours with over 0.20" with any given storm. The next surge of monsoon moisture arrives during the day tomorrow, but looks "dry" enough for lighter rainfall amounts even where we get thunderstorms to develop. Tomorrow may be an interesting day due as lack of earlier day cloud cover MAY produce more instability, and increased lightning coverage across higher elevations. That will be a trend that needs to be monitored for any potential critical fire weather concerns. There is higher chance of gusts of 35-55 mph (20-60%) with even higher chances across southwest and far western Idaho.

The ridge shift backs to the northwest a bit through the weekend, pushing deeper monsoon moisture back across central and eastern Idaho. This should bring a higher potential of wetting rains areawide, with lightning coverage highly dependent on where we get cloud breaks and better instability each day. This overall pattern remains in place into next week, with some expected shifting east or west of the main plume of moisture as low pressure well to the northwest tries to nudge the ridge east once again...even if briefly. Temperatures should remain ABOVE AVERAGE in the 80s and 90s..

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.