textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow showers, including a few thunderstorms, will wind down this evening

- Gradual warming trend still expected with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms

- Dry and warm conditions expected for the Fourth of July weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Showers and isolated storms associated with this slow moving low will come to end this evening. Snow has been observed down to 7000ft, if not a bit lower, today. Given the colder temperatures at the surface and aloft, we could easily small hail or graupel with heavier showers or storms today. As we are seeing clearing behind the main area of showers, winds have picked up especially across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and adjacent bench areas. Gusts up to 50 mph are still possible until sunset, but that may be a bit of stretch given we may not see the maximum amount of sun and mixing to hit that. That said, it still is breezy enough for a WIND ADVISORY for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. A few lingering showers are likely late tonight and Tuesday morning around Island Park, otherwise another round of showers and storms are expected across the central mountains, eastern highlands, and South Hills/Albion Mountains. With amount of moisture in place after all of the precipitation this weekend, we will likely see a better chance of measurable/appreciable rainfall especially across the central mountains...even with a slightly drier airmass trying to move in. In fact, while in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow morning, with lighter winds...we may need to look at including pockets of stratus and fog to the forecast. Also for tonight, we will see pockets of frost/freeze conditions for our mid and higher elevation valleys. It appears the potential is minimal for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.

For the rest of this week, there are multiple weak "waves" crossing the state. Although the forecast calls for a gradual warming trend and drier air overall in place, we are expecting some showers and thunderstorms around through Friday. Not everyone will see that potential pop up, but the chance is still going to be there. For the latter half of this week, temperatures will be back closer to AVERAGE with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. We should see a dry and warmer Fourth of July weekend coming our way. By Sunday, highs will push lower 90s across portions of the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and lower elevations south of the Plain into northern Utah. It will be interesting to see if this forecast holds, as models have been struggling trying to build stronger ridges across the West several days, when the pattern just isn't that conducive as the main storm track is over us or across southern Canada.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

SCT/OVC CIGs in place across eastern Idaho this morning as we still feel the influence from the area of low pressure. Still have some SHRA potential with a low, but non-zero, TSRA risk at KIDA and KDIJ but the rest of the area is likely just limited to showers at this point. We should begin to see some clearing from west to east later this afternoon and evening with VFR conditions likely to prevail regionwide by the time we reach the overnight. Until then, some intermittent MVFR or even IFR CIGs will be possible, especially KIDA and KDIJ. Winds will be breezy until the evening across the valley terminals with gusts upwards of 25-30 kts possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

RHs remain high today with unusually cold temperatures in place along with isolated to scattered showers. The showers will continue to diminish in coverage throughout the afternoon but expecting showers and storms to ramp up in coverage again Tuesday primarily across the central mountains with fire weather zones 475, 476 and the northern half of 422 the primary areas of focus for showers/storms tomorrow. Winds remain elevated in valley areas today with gusts 30-40 mph possible in the lower elevations but will become more relaxed as we move into Tuesday and throughout the upcoming week. Temperatures will slowly moderate through late week allowing RHs to get a bit closer to critical levels but should remain above. It'll likely won't be until the weekend when temps start to warm above seasonal levels that we see critical RHs. There will be enough moisture in place Wed - Fri to at least support some isolated virga/dry showers and storms on those days.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055.