textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain, high mountain snow, and thunderstorms continue through Monday

- Much colder temperatures will lead to pockets of frost and freeze conditions for the next few mornings

- Gradual warming and drying trend expected through next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Low pressure continues to settle in the region today, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms continuing. The main concern is from strong outflow winds and hail especially across the southeast half of Idaho into Wyoming and Utah. There is MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms in those areas. There is 50-90% chance of thunderstorm gusts exceeding 35 mph with higher end potential for 55+ mph. As the low swings across the state tonight and Sunday, part of it races into Montana and southern Canada, while splitting and the southern of the split briefly parked over Idaho. There are some subtle differences in where precipitation ends up tonight and tomorrow, dependent on where the Idaho portion of the storm ends up. The best chance of precipitation through tomorrow afternoon will generally be from the Wood River Valley to Driggs and north from there. We did include some chance of showers and a few storms farther south as 1) higher resolution models tried to develop activity there even with a bit of "dry slot" over those areas and 2) to account for any subtle shifts south in the forecast. Sunday night into Monday, we do expect a more widespread area of lingering rain and mountain snow wrapping around into the central mountains, with a band of showers shifting east and northeast the remnant part of the storm swings east of the Divide. The "driest" areas still appear to be the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, the Wood River Valley, and along the Utah border. Those areas will see an additional 0.10-0.40", heavily dependent on where showers and storms track. Higher elevations may see 0.30-0.70" south of the Snake Plain and surrounding the Wood River Valley. The rest of central and eastern Idaho (central mountains and eastern highlands) are expected to see plenty of moisture especially closer to Lemhi County and the Montana border. The latest forecast trends toward 0.50-1.5" of moisture. While it still appears we occasionally see snow falling down to 6500-7500ft, accumulation below 9000ft should be up 3-4" across the central mountains and along the Divide. Above 9000ft across the central mountains, several more inches are possible. The story continues that through at least Monday, backcountry adventurers should be prepared for cold weather conditions, including snow and cold enough temperatures that could lead to dangerous conditions if not properly prepared. Circling back, it will be breezy outside of storms where we can get breaks in the clouds today and tomorrow/Monday where we see overall clearing and "drier" air coming across eastern Idaho. We may be close to advisory criteria in a few spots, including American Falls Reservoir, but for now...no headlines.

The models continue to delay any major warming and drying trend, but we do expect something more gradual along those lines. We will be back to AVERAGE temperatures for the time of year by the end of next week. We will likely see the potential for light showers/virga and isolated storms during that period as well. By the Fourth, we may finally be dry for a bit.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

We're getting a break from the showers and storms at this point, but more is expected on Sunday. We will see the wrap around moisture near SUN, IDA, and DIJ on Sunday, so there are periods of -SHRA and VCSH in the TAFs at these sites. In addition, the NBM shows about a 30 percent chance of MVFR CIGs at PIH and SUN, a 50 percent chance at IDA and DIJ, and a 10 percent chance at BYI early Sunday morning, so there does remain the mention of it in the TAF. Models may be over-estimating the amount of moisture expected to have fallen today, so confidence in this is low, but worth mentioning. Winds remain elevated with gusts around 20 to 25 kts throughout tonight and Sunday. A more organized push of moisture will move through the area overnight Sunday into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The trend through Monday is for shower, high mountain snow, and thunderstorms. The concern for today is gusty outflow winds and hail with storms...especially across the southeast corner. The strongest potential for outflow winds is outside of the central mountains, with higher end potential possibly exceeding 55 mph. That is also where the hail potential exists. Where we get more sun today, gusts of 25-40 mph are possible outside of any storms. For Sunday into Monday, the bulk of the precipitation will remain across the central mountains (422/475/476) and closer to the Divide (411)...as the low splits and the southern end briefly parks over Idaho. We will see showers and a few thunderstorms outside of those areas especially tomorrow afternoon through Monday morning, as the rest of the low swings east of the Divide. Breezy conditions will persist south of the main precipitation shield with gusts of 25-40 mph expected, but even where we see "drier air" those days, humidities will remain quite high. Across the central mountains along the Divide (411/422/475/476), we are expecting 0.50-1.50" of moisture. This includes accumulating snow above 7500ft, with areas above 9000ft in the central mountains potentially seeing several inches of snow (Trace to 4" down to 7500ft). Other areas will see wetting rains, but that come more in batches vs lingering and more widespread precipitation after tonight.

The models continue to trend toward a gradual warming and drying trend, and more rapid spike coming closer to the Fourth of July. Before then, it looks like we end up with some mid level moisture around and one or more areas of low pressure lingering across the area. At the moment, we are thinking it is back to light rain/virga and isolated thunderstorms until everything clears out.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.