textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon temperatures go above normal by 4 to 8 degrees F.

- Wind shift from north and east to south and west.

- Strong wind and very low afternoon humidity will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today will see the end of the northeast to northwest flow at the surface as a surface low approaches from the north. Afternoon should see the more normal southwest to west wind in the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley. Wind in the mountains will be lighter and driven by the slope-valley effect. This changes by Tue afternoon as this low gets closer. Moderate to strong wind in the lower elevations should require at least a Wind Advisory, at least for some low elevation locations, but there is the combination with very low humidity that could lead to critical fire weather conditions, if fuels are receptive.

Skies will once again be dominated my sunny/clear to mostly sunny/mostly clear conditions. The abundant sunshine at the strongest time of year means temperatures will warm again from today to Tue, with temperatures breaking the 90 degree F threshold in much of the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley. Even Stanley will be at 80 degrees. The trough brings cooler air in from the north on Wed, but without cloudiness the cool down is weak to moderate, down about 3 to 7 degrees F. The warming trend returns for Thu even as the wind decreases, with the warmest conditions all week on Fri. This is due to a likely second trough pushing through along the continental divide. Still, afternoon highs stay above normal.

Finally, conditions will remain dry with very little cloud through Fri night. The second trough appears to bring isolated to scattered level of showers and a risk of thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 438 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Transition day from gusty from the north and east to Tue gusty from the southwest to west. Wind will be VRB05KT or less for a lot of the time, then by afternoon the south through west flow will develop and increase 16/00Z to 16/02Z for KBYI, KIDA, and KPIH. KSUN will see the typical slope-valley interaction with a temporary shift to southwest in the mid-afternoon, then back to downslope for the night. KDIJ is very light until the afternoon, then a northwest flow, shifting to southeast flow in the early evening.

VSBY will stay unlimited. CIGs are non-existent with SKC-SCT prevailing, staying mid-level or higher. Most of the clouds develop overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Strong warming and drying over the next two days will plunge afternoon humidity below 10 percent for a wide area of low elevations. This will combine with a trough moving through MT that will push the southwest to west wind to near Wind Advisory levels. This appears to be an easy Red Flag condition, but only if fuels are receptive. This returns for Wed, then while the humidity remains very low, the wind decreases substantially. Showers and lightning may return for some areas on Sat afternoon.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES