textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for snow continues into early Thursday

- Heavier snow expected along and east of I-15 especially in the higher elevations

- Breezy conditions continue into Wednesday evening

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Tonight and Thursday...

The main area of snow generally lies east of a Malta to Monida Pass line, and is slowly shifting north and east. While the front has cleared the state, there is still some enhanced light to moderate snowfall along the bench areas and also higher elevations. Winds behind the front are ramping up a bit slower than previously forecast, which be "good" in terms of preventing the highest winds from developing. On the flip side, there is some blowing and drifting areas in relation to snow from earlier this morning, or light snow is occasionally falling. Elsewhere, showers are developing and possible through tomorrow morning. The big issue for the forecast tonight and tomorrow morning is a developing convergence band. There is still some spread in terms of how far south this band goes. While there is some credence toward keeping the band between Rexburg and Idaho Falls, there is also some credence in pushing as far south as Pocatello. With confidence low enough, we did paint a wide area of 1-4" of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning, from Rexburg to Pocatello, to account for the spread in the models. Unfortunately, as with the case often with these bands, we may not get a better idea of where this sets up until it actually does. Light to moderate snow will continue across the eastern and southeast highlands. Additional snow amounts through early tomorrow in these areas around 1-5" for the valleys and up to 8" in the mountains. We did enhance the snow in the Big Holes and surrounding terrain due to the combination of the convergence band and upslope conditions...producing 8-12" in and around the Big Holes. Elsewhere, spotty light snow accumulations are likely. We are keeping all headlines in place, and will expire them as needed. We did opt to NOT issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Snake Plain due to uncertainty with the convergence band. Interesting enough, the highest end within the Blend of Models forecast is pushing 5-6", so the potential is there that we could be underforecasting snowfall within the band itself. The raw numbers from the GFS and NAM models actually go another inch or two higher than that. For the rest of Thursday, some lingering snow showers are expected across the area.

Friday through Wednesday...

Heading into the weekend, after some showers Friday...Saturday and Sunday look pretty dry. Rain and snow returns heading into Monday and the first half of next week. Temperatures do climb fairly quickly ahead of the next storm, with some lower valleys pushing 50 degrees. It looks wet in some of our mountains, and certain drier relatively speaking for the valleys. It is needed moisture, but nothing that looks like a big dent buster in terms of lack of moisture in some areas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 945 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Snow is forecast at KDIJ with -SHSN at KIDA and prevailing VCSH elsewhere into the first part of Thursday. Confidence in a convergence band dropping southward into KIDA is decreasing as observations and hi-res solutions that had the feature are not in alignment thus far and winds north of KIDA remain southerly. That said, still kept a PRO30 at KIDA to account for the potential for predominant -SN and MVFR VIS from 08z through 12z. CIG/VIS forecast is predominantly VFR with brief periods of MVFR.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for IDZ058-059- 061>067. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for IDZ060.