textproduct: Pocatello
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm winter storm brings rain to most, snow above 7000ft elevation. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories continue for some higher-elevation areas.
- Near record temperatures continue until Friday, then cool to normal by Saturday.
- Cooling temperatures and lowering snow levels will start to bring light snow accumulations to a few more of our population centers and mountain valleys Friday and Saturday.
UPDATE
Issued at 848 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025
Given the relative lull in the pattern today, opted to drop existing winter headlines from the central mountains. Snow showers will be possible through the day, but accumulations should have minimal travel impact. Will be looking closely at additional headlines for the next wave of atmospheric river moisture arriving tonight and continuing into Saturday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025
Massive upper level low off the northern CA coast continues to pump a mild and moist air mass over the Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This low will eventually move inland and cross through the region on Sat/Sat night. Until then, expect rain to high elevations with the heaviest expected this evening, with rates in the upper Snake River highlands reaching 0.10 of an inch per hour or more. This intense low also has some wind aloft with it, which enhances the precipitation production. The Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories will continue as-is, with less precipitation for Christmas night/Fri. However, that 24 hour period may need some winter highlights as temperatures cool some 5 to 10 deg F from Christmas Day to Fri. This will mean more snow production to lower elevations.
Temperatures have already reached records for the date today, and despite clouds and rain more records will likely fall on Christmas Day. The cool down starts Fri as mentioned, then another 10 to 15 deg F from Fri to Sat. By then, skies will at least partially clear and cold air behind this storm with some west to northwest wind at least briefly should bring in the colder air.
The very windy conditions over the south central highlands should diminish this afternoon; wind at KPIH and KBYI airports show even these locations are still right around Wind Advisory thresholds, with expectations of subsiding by early evening. As the low moves across, wind will stay in the 15 to 30 mph range with higher gusts Christmas Day through Sat, which is just below Advisory thresholds. Wind will shift to west by Fri night, and northwest on Sat.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025
The storm that brought all the precipitation will have moved out by late Sat night, allowing an upper level ridge to move into the US west coast. This will clear skies, but the northerly wind behind the storm will keep cold air from southern Canada moving into the region. This will moderate the warming, keeping temperatures below 40 deg F for most until Wed afternoon, when that kind of warmth returns to the Snake River plain. Overnight lows should be around climatic normals, with teens in the Snake River plain, single digits and some below zero readings in the central Idaho mountains. Wind by Sun afternoon as the high pressure strengthens should return to light. This may cause night and morning fog issues, but will have to see how much moisture is available in snow pack or standing water.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1057 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025
Models suggest predominately MVFR CIGs at all terminals with the exception of KBYI before all trend VFR later in the day Thursday. Have retained the period of IFR VIS at KDIJ overnight with moderate rain. Winds will remain breezy into the first part of Thursday.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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