textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisory for South Hills, eastern Magic Valley, and Snake River Plain tonight through early Tuesday.

- Winter Weather Advisory for Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands tonight through Tuesday morning.

- Winter Storm Warning for Bear River Range from tonight to early Thursday morning.

- More snow Tuesday night into Wednesday for many.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Our nice weather is coming to an abrupt end tonight as a strong cold front will sweep through Eastern Idaho, so prepare for some big changes heading our way! An upper level low off the coast of British Columbia is dropping southward today and the deep troughing and associated cold front will be working its way into and across Eastern Idaho tonight through early Tuesday morning. This cold front is bringing what we can call "Round 1" to Eastern Idaho tonight. This will bring ample Pacific moisture into the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands tonight through Tuesday morning. Hence the need for winter headlines. Have gone ahead and upgraded the Bear River Range advisory to a Winter Storm Warning in part due to some increased snowfall totals and increasing wind gust forecast. Have also increased the time of the Winter Storm Warning to last through BOTH rounds, ending early Thursday morning. The Bear River Range will be looking at 1 to 2 FEET of snow by the end early Thursday morning. Currently, the NBM has an 80 to 90 percent chance of a total of 18 inches of snow on Emigration Summit by Thursday morning and a 40 to 60 percent chance of 24 inches of snow. This area doesn't get much of a break in between rounds.

For "Round 1" in the Central Mountains, which is generally this evening into early Tuesday morning, Winter Weather Advisory continues with about 5 to 10 inches of snow expected. The HREF shows a 40 percent chance of 10 inches of snow on Galena Summit during this round, a 70 percent chance of 6 inches in Ketchum, and a 30 to 50 percent chance of 4 inches from Bellevue to Hailey. The Bellevue to Hailey area is the stretch with some uncertainty as small temperature variations between models mean the difference of 1 inch of snow versus 4 inches of snow.

In the Eastern Highlands, Winter Weather Advisories also continue with a couple of zones added to what was already in place. The Monida Pass zone has been added along with the Soda Springs zone and Georgetown Summit zone. The Monida Pass zone will see a big spread of snowfall totals within it with a 30 to 40 percent chance of 1 inch of snow at Dubois, a 25 percent chance of 8 inches of snow around Spencer, and about a 60 percent chance of 12 inches of snow around Monida Pass. Elsewhere, the Eastern Highland zones within the advisory will see about 4 to 8 inches down low and 8 to 12 inches up high. For many, any travel very late tonight and into the Tuesday morning commute will be difficult to dangerous due to the combination of blowing and drifting snow as winds gusts 35 to 45 mph.

Speaking of the wind, have also gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for parts of the South Hills, eastern Magic Valley, and Snake River Plain. It will be a limited window of strongest winds for some of these areas as the cold front blasts through tonight, but we will see gusts ranging from 40 to 50 mph. In fact, winds will likely diminish shortly after the cold front passes through the Shoshone and Burley areas a few hours before the expiration of the advisory. Debated on adding the Driggs zone to the Wind Advisory, but the eastern half of the zone won't be as windy as the western half of the zone. That is to stay, Botts will likely see gust of 40 to 50 mph while Driggs will be closer to 35 mph. Snow totals in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain look limited overnight, with most of us remaining below 1 inch. However, there are a couple of CAMs that want to show some enhancement along the cold front and bring 1-2 inches to Pocatello and Idaho Falls early Tuesday morning. That is a low confidence and low probability of occurrence scenario, but a non-zero chance.

There will be a short-lived break around midday Tuesday before we move on to "Round 2." Scattered showers return first to the Central Mountains and Snake River Plain Tuesday afternoon as a mix of rain and snow as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s or right around 40 for many (that's about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than highs today). Showers will continue to spread eastward through the afternoon and continue overnight into Wednesday as the moisture axis shifts eastward and favors the Eastern Highlands a bit more Wednesday into Thursday. Snow totals in the Central Mountains from Tuesday into Thursday morning will be lighter with "Round 2" for most, ranging from about 2 to 6 inches with some higher amounts around 6 to 9 inches up on the mountains. The Eastern Highlands will need another round of Winter Weather Advisories for Tuesday evening into Thursday morning with widespread snow totals forecast to be in the 4 to 8 inch range once again. Winds will still be breezy late Tuesday into Wednesday, generally in the 25 to 35 mph range with some stronger gusts up on ridge tops.

We will get another break from the snow midday Thursday to a degree, but light snow showers are expected to continue on and off in the second half of the week before a ridge of high pressure builds in over Eastern Idaho for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 448 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Clouds will continue to increase and CIGs will trend MVFR and likely IFR during periods of snow as the precip shifts eastward tonight. A mix of rain and snow showers will arrive at KSUN and KDIJ within the next few hours and overnight at KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI before precipitation transitions to solely snow everywhere by early Tuesday behind the cold front. Winds will continue to increase into Tuesday, with gusts reaching up to around 30 to 40 kts at all terminals, and remain breezy through late afternoon Tuesday. There will be a brief lull late Tuesday before the next round of precipitation moves in on Wednesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Tuesday for IDZ051>057. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for IDZ060. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for IDZ061>064-066-067. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for IDZ071>074.