textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through midweek with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms

- Critical fire weather conditions expected tomorrow across higher elevations along the Utah border due to thunderstorms

- Warmer temperatures will persist through next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Early cloud cover and virga/light rain has led to potentially a slight delay in thunderstorm development today. We are still looking at isolated to scattered thunderstorms, where we can maximize sunshine and hitting the magic "number" for thunderstorms to pop off. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph and higher end gusts hitting 55-60 mph. The higher probabilities will be across the Snake Plain and higher elevations OUTSIDE of the central mountains. This is also where SPC has a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms with strong winds. Some storms today will produce a decent burst of rain, while others will likely just produce some light rain or sprinkles. The risk of storms continues east of I-15 past midnight. For tomorrow, it looks like two distinct areas of showers and storms are expected based on the latest trends in the higher resolution models and ensemble forecasts. One is from Mackay to Island Park, including the far northern end of the Snake Plain. There is a 30-50% chance for gusts there over 35 mph. The better potential will be south of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, although there is a chance of some storms shifting north off terrain (potentially along outflow boundaries) as well. Across southern areas, there is a 50-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph. Some storms farther south also have a higher chance of being decent rain producers. Wednesday should be the last day we see more widespread shower and storm potential until next week. Better chances will occur over higher terrain, but we will likely see a few showers or storms along outflow across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Like tomorrow, there is a higher potential for storms to produce measurable rainfall down south.

We are expecting dry and hotter conditions from Thursday through the weekend, if not into early next week. The overall pattern is still in flux, as there is still a 60/40 split in what models, ensembles, and cluster forecasts depict by early next week. The "60% club" continues to show stronger ridging farther west, which will produce slightly hotter temperatures and push most of the monsoon moisture west until Tuesday. The rest of the forecasts, etc. depict the ridge never pushing far enough west, and the monsoon push arrives Sunday or Monday. The pattern through at least Saturday looks breezy with highs rapidly climbing back into the mid 90s to near 100 in some spots. Right now, the Blend of Models is dry and breezy Sunday with more widespread chance of temperatures in upper 90s to low 100s. The Blend has a small chance of dry thunderstorms will temperatures still in the mid 90s to low 100s. If we end up holding the monsoon farther west, or we can get more sunshine overall, highs Sunday and Monday could easily hit the low to mid 90s in colder valleys like Stanley. Warmer valleys would easily be 100-105. The highest end of the range shown in Blend may be showing an ongoing bias toward being too extreme, so it is something to at least watch. It does look like that for now, once the monsoon pattern sets up, we may see multiple days of showers and storms including a better chance of measurable rainfall. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms initiated earlier are continuing into the evening period. Some of these could have gusty and erratic winds but so far have been fairly limited in spatial coverage. Some hi-res guidance show this activity continuing on into the overnight hours and with a disturbance streaming west of the area, this seems quite plausible. We'll likely see this activity lull into the early morning hours. Afternoon thunderstorms expected again Tuesday with lingering moisture throughout eastern Idaho.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be the main impact through Wednesday in the afternoons and evenings. Have issued a Red Flag Warning Tuesday for zones 413 and 427 where think there is a much higher potential for scattered activity. The systems causing the activity will move east Thursday and very dry conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday with extremely hot temperatures this weekend with triple digits possible in many low elevation locations.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for IDZ413-427.