textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance to chance risk of thunderstorms throughout nearly all of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

- Warming and drying trend continues, but strength of the warming diminishes.

- Independence Day holiday weekend is dry, no thunderstorms, light wind. Temperatures around normal for the time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today through Fri night...Weak upper level trough will actually cross through the forecast area tonight. Expect continued instability today with light precipitation nearly everywhere except the Bear Lake region. This trough is moving ENE in direction and so will bring more precipitation to the northern zones of the forecast area than the southern. For tonight and Thu the greater precipitation moves with the trough to the eastern and southern highlands. The amount of precipitation is even lower than today. As the upper level flow flattens Fri, the light precipitation and risk of thunderstorms stays in the areas south of the Snake River. The amount of sunshine and the slow- moving nature of this low will mean a very gradual warming trend, on the order of 1 to 3 deg F from day to day. Wind is light today, then breezier tomorrow after the trough passes to the east. Breezy conditions continue Fri afternoon as well.

Independence Day through Tue...An upper level ridge centered in the Four Corners area will start amplifying by Sun. The only difference in the clusters is how strong this ridge is. This should allow some strong warming by Mon or Tue, so expect another surge in temperatures, where low elevation locations will start exceeding 90 deg F. The overall subsidence should keep skies nearly clear, with only some afternoon cumulus due to daytime heating the only way clouds could develop. As usual under such a ridge, wind will stay relatively calm at night with slope- valley wind for the late morning to early evening.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

All showers and thunderstorms have ended for the evening. Expect VFR conditions through the evening. Will see periods of mid- level CIGs but well within VFR range. Otherwise winds have dropped off for the evening.

Tomorrow expect another round of afternoon into early evening showers and thunderstorms. Have put in VCSH and a PROB30 for TSTMS for all TAF sites for late afternoon into early evening. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be slightly breezy with gusts of around 15 to 20 kts, mainly for IDA and PIH. Expect outflows of around 25 to 30 kts with any thunderstorms. Winds should drop off by early evening (1 to 2z). Thunderstorm outflows may keep winds elevated slightly later.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Warming and drying continues today. The air remains unstable enough to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, but the moisture content should be way down and humidity for the afternoon should start lowering. Wind will be light today and Thu, but as the upper level pattern flattens, the wind should be stronger Fri. Light showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms will decrease in coverage for Thu and Fri. By Sat an upper level high in the Four Corners area will be building, and by Sun or Mon temperatures in lower elevations will start surpassing the 90 deg F mark in many locations. By Mon, a threat of showers and thunderstorms returns with another upper level trough approacing from the west.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.