textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat conditions persist today, with temperatures a bit cooler for the rest of the week

- Monsoon moisture increases with a higher potential for showers and thunderstorms returning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

High pressure continues to slide east just a bit, allowing for temperatures today to be just a bit cooler overall. That said, the EXTREME HEAT WARNING and HEAT ADVISORY remain in effect today as accumulative heat-related issues will still result. This also will allow the main push of monsoon moisture to push a bit more into Idaho. A few more clouds and buildups are expected with isolated thunderstorms developing over the central mountains later this afternoon and evening. There is a 10-40% chance of gusts over 35 mph, and possibly reaching 45 mph. The HREF and REFS indicate anywhere we can get some decent buildups and virga to develop, There is a 10% chance of those higher gusts. Monsoon moisture increases steadily each day, with an increase in the potential for measurable rainfall and higher coverage of showers and storms...although a higher chance of heavier rainfall isn't showing up in the models at the moment. This may be due to the recent rapid drying of air at the surface. That said, there is going to be SOME potential for decent rain-producers.

This trend continues through the rest of this week and next weekend. Highs should remain in the 90s overall in the valleys, although this may indeed fluctuate based on surges of monsoon moisture and any day seeing more cloud cover vs other days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through tonight and Monday. A slight increase in moisture on Monday will bring about some more SCT to BKN upper level clouds at times, but have left out any VCSH mention at SUN and DIJ as it looks like the bulk of any showers stay just on the periphery of our TAF sites. Shower and storm chances begin to increase Tuesday into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Temperatures will begin a slow downward trend throughout the week, although highs will remain ABOVE AVERAGE and in the 90s overall for valley locations. Temperatures will remain hot enough today, especially when looking at this accumulatively, that heat-related stress is still likely today for crews out working current or any new fires. With the ridge slipping a bit more eastward today and throughout the week, monsoon moisture will shift more across Idaho throughout the week. We will likely see an increase in afternoon cloud buildups, which has a low potential of producing virga and wind gusts of 35-45 mph. We are expecting isolated dry storms across the central mountains this afternoon and evening, with a 10-40% chance of gusts of 35-45 mph. Starting tomorrow, deeper monsoon moisture will stream across Idaho daily, for any increasing chance of showers and storms. This will bring higher coverage of thunderstorms in some areas off and on, and also some higher chance of wetting rains. This will likely change day to day depending on smaller scale features/waves moving through in this pattern. This type of pattern lends itself to less lead-time perhaps on any type of critical fire weather headlines, but this is an issue that may become a problem as early as Tuesday. Outside of storms, gusts of 15-25 mph are expected almost each afternoon and evening with locally higher gusts.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>059-064-065. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ060>063- 066>068-070-075.