textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rapid Clearing Today: Morning mid-to-high clouds will exit quickly from west to east, leaving mostly sunny skies this afternoon with benign conditions regionwide.

- Unseasonably Warm Mid-Week (WednesdayFriday): High pressure centering over the Northern Great Basin will bring dry conditions and unseasonable warmth, pushing lower-elevation highs 7 to 12 degrees above normal into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

- Weekend Moisture and Cooling Trend: Guidance has trended faster and deeper with incoming Pacific energy, introducing cloud cover, isolated precipitation chances, and a downward temperature adjustment as early as late Friday night into Saturday.

- Widespread Cooldown & Rain/Snow Chances Next Week: Strong ensemble agreement supports an expansive Western U.S. trough establishing early next week, bringing sharply colder temperatures and daily precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

The weather pattern across eastern Idaho will remain generally benign through the workweek, characterized by an absence of high-impact systems and continued above-normal temperatures. Early morning satellite imagery shows an upper-level shortwave tracking well north of the area, leaving a canopy of mid-to-high level cloudiness streaming across southern Idaho. Regional radar returns remain largely negligible, though an isolated stray sprinkle or high-elevation mountain flurry cannot be completely ruled out over the next few hours before dynamic support exits. Rapid clearing is expected from west to east throughout the day, yielding mostly sunny skies by this afternoon.

Skies will remain mostly clear as high pressure rebuilds and centers over the Northern Great Basin from Wednesday through Friday. Strong atmospheric subsidence and rising 500 mb heights will promote unseasonably warm afternoons, with daytime highs running 7 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages. Lower-elevation valleys across the Snake River Plain and Magic Valley will comfortably reach the upper 50s to lower 60s under light, terrain-driven winds, making for very pleasant late-autumn conditions.

The tranquil synoptic pattern begins to break down heading into the weekend as an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Alaska taps into Pacific moisture and ejects energy into the Pacific Northwest. The most notable forecast change with this cycle is that models are trending faster and deeper with the incoming trough, bringing an initial intrusion of moisture and cooler air into eastern Idaho late Friday night into Saturday where previous forecast runs were dry. This has resulted in a downward trend in forecast high temperatures for the weekend alongside increasing cloud cover and light shower potential.

A more pronounced pattern shift takes hold to kick off next week. Global deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters are in strong agreement regarding broad upper-level troughing anchoring over the western United States. This setup will usher in an expansive cold air mass, making below-normal temperatures increasingly likely along with daily chances for scattered rain and mountain snow across eastern Idaho.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Mid/high level clouds early give way to mostly sunny skies by midday with only FEW clouds expected into the day Wednesday. Winds will get a touch breezy later this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20, after which they should become light and variable later in the evening and into the overnight hours.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.