textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front passage overnight with localized gusty winds.

- Good chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday morning

- Drying and warming trends along with breezy conditions later in the week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Satellite imagery shows shortwave trough just off PacNW coast this afternoon, poised to impact East Idaho beginning overnight. Cloud cover increases through the remainder of the day, and a few showers will be possible by late evening in the central mountains ahead of the leading surface front arriving overnight. This front is associated with very strong 700mb jet, and a negatively tilted 500mb shortwave axis. Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible with the passage of the front, and gusty outflow winds will be possible. The airmass over East Idaho starts out dry, though dewpoints are expected to slowly increase through the day ahead of the front. Any convection associated with the front will likely be mostly virga with little precipitation, but strong gusty winds will be briefly possible with passage of the front during the overnight. HRRR forecast surface gusts have exceeded 45kts at times overnight, suggesting that isolated gusts associated with frontal passage may exceed 50 mph at times. However, most gusts will likely remain in the 35-40 mph range, as HREF probabilities only support a 35-50% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph with frontal passage. Behind the front, showers steadily increase the potential for rainfall to reach the ground by sunrise. Post- frontal showers are expected most areas during the day Tuesday, with most of East Idaho expected to see wetting rains over 0.10" by midnight Tuesday night, and a greater than 75% chance for 0.25" or more across the Sawtooths, Frank Church, and higher elevations in the southern and eastern highlands. There is a chance for thunderstorms, especially in the eastern highlands Tuesday afternoon, with strong gusty winds and small hail. Strong winds are forecast in the northern portions of the Snake Plain during the day Tuesday behind the main front, and a WIND ADVISORY has been issued for the INL east to Idaho Falls and Rexburg, along with a LAKE WIND ADVISORY for American Falls Reservoir.

Shortwave shifts east overnight Tuesday night, but second weak feature drives across the panhandle into Montana during the day Wednesday. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across the Island Park region. Strong westerly winds are forecast for the Eastern Magic Valley and Lower Snake Plain, and another WIND ADVISORY will likely be needed. Dry westerly flow is expected Thursday into the early weekend, gradually shifting to northwest flow as a ridge of high pressure builds into the coastal states. There is potential for a shortwave to drop through Montana late Saturday into Sunday, but moisture appears to stay too far northeast to impact the region. Breezy winds will be possible. Temperatures rebound back into the upper 70s to mid 80s Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tricky forecast overnight with cold front moving through the area. Showers are likely along the front with lowering ceilings behind the front going into Tuesday morning. Gusty outflow showers or maybe a stray thunderstorm are still possible, although latest high res models are suggesting that is more and more unlikely. Not confident enough to remove the mention for erratic outflow winds from the tafs. Non-thunderstorm gusty winds are likely to develop overnight tonight and continue through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Min RHs remain low today (below 15% for Fire Weather zones 425 and 427) with overall lighter gusts early today ahead of a system approaching that will come through tomorrow. Expect gusts of near 25 to 30 mph especially for western and northern ridge tops by late afternoon/early evening.

On Tuesday expect strong winds gusts (35 to 50 mph) with increased RHs (min RHs of 25 to 60S%) with scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday with wetting rains likely for higher elevations. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday morning mainly for Fire Weather zone 411.

Temperatures remain below normal through Wednesday with drying and warming trends along with breezy conditions later in the week through the weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for IDZ052-053.