textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain ABOVE AVERAGE for the next several days

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms around

- There is some potential for decent rain-producing storms but dry air may be hard to overcome initially

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Above-normal warmth will persist for the foreseeable future with forecast highs continuing to run 5 to 10 degrees above climatological norms. Daytime temperatures will cool by several degrees through tomorrow before stabilizing the latter half of this week. Widespread highs will span the mid-90s across the low elevations through early next week while overnight lows remain in the upper-50s and 60s. Monsoonal moisture will keep daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our forecast into next week. Isolated thunderstorms will mostly be of the dry variety today and will be capable of producing gusty winds to around 45 mph. Outside of storms, winds will be a touch breezy with gusts to around 25 mph. Deeper moisture will arrive both tomorrow and again this weekend as a Pacific low nears the coast and, with anticyclonic upper level flow further east, enhances the southwest transport of moisture into Idaho. Storm coverage will trend scattered with precipitable water peaking on Wednesday and likely again over the weekend at an inch to 1.5", although ensembles still indicate the potential for precipitable water to be closer to an inch during that timeframe. Ensembles largely indicate widespread accumulation of 0.10" to 0.15" QPF each 24-hour period during the weekend timeframe. Locally higher amounts under the strongest storms will be possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Expect VFR conditions with monsoon moisture keeping mid and high level clouds around through the period. Wind gusts outside of storms today should be 10-20kts, although there is a low chance of gusts over 30kts with any stronger storm that may develop. Maintained VCSH at SUN, BYI, and DIJ at the moment as there have been some dry showers/virga around, especially in the western half of the forecast area. The risk of thunderstorms at those airports remains low, but non zero, so it'll be worth watching over the next few hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

We are locked into a more summertime pattern as high pressure generally holds to our south and east. Daily high temperatures will be in the 90s for the most part, which is not as hot as this past weekend, but still ABOVE AVERAGE. With monsoon moisture in place, there will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms somewhere across eastern Idaho. We will likely see fluctuations day to day on where the best precip sets up based on where we get better afternoon sunshine and/or deeper surges of moisture. Admittedly, trying to forecast more than 12-24 hours out where we may see stronger showers/storms producing wetting rains, can prove problematic as models sometimes over/under forecast early day clouds. This may impact any type of lead time for RED FLAG conditions on a daily basis.

For today and tonight, we expect monsoon moisture to increase and spread a bit farther east across eastern Idaho. That said, wetting rain potential is under 25% due to dry air currently in place and lack of widespread instability. This will hold over the central mountains south toward the Utah border across Zones 425 and 427. Lightning coverage will overall be isolated but could be more concentrated in some spots, including past midnight. Farther east, we do expect a few dry storms this afternoon and evening mainly over higher terrain. For tomorrow afternoon, as this surge of moisture shifts east, there is some drier air that shifts into central Idaho and up the Snake Plain. This will limit and shower and thunderstorm potential to 475/476, Zone 410 north of Idaho Falls, 411, and 413 east of I-15. The chance of wetting rain is under 30% and confined for now near the Montana border. Beyond that, we will need to monitor any surges of deeper monsoon moisture for any uptick in wetting rainfall and thunderstorm coverage each day but at least some shower/storm chance seems probable each day into the weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.