textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Sharp Cooling Trend: Afternoon highs will drop into the 50s on Monday, with a much more significant plunge into the 40s arriving by Thursday.

- Impactful Mountain Snow: Snow levels drop to 5,0005,500 feet Monday, bringing 2 to 5 inches to Galena Summit and several inches to the Eastern Highlands.

- Potent Midweek Storm: A robust system arrives Wednesday, bringing widespread moisture, gusty winds and eventually light valley snow

- Slow Weekend Recovery: Expect a slow trend toward drier and warmer conditions by Sunday, though mountain showers may linger through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

As the slow-moving low pressure system currently impacting the region shifts toward central Idaho, we are entering a transition toward a much cooler and more unsettled regime for the week ahead. A cold front associated with this system will clear the area by Monday morning, effectively suppressing afternoon highs into the low to mid 50s for most valley locations. Along with this cooler air mass, precipitation will begin to focus more heavily on the higher terrain. Snow levels are progged to fall between 5,000 and 5,500 feet on Monday, resulting in fresh accumulations for our mountain passes and the Stanley Basin. Specifically, Galena Summit is on track for 2 to 5 inches of new snow, while Emigration Summit could see 2 to 4 inches through tomorrow night.

While high-resolution model guidance keeps the bulk of the precipitation focused across the central mountains and eastern highlands today, there is a lingering potential for scattered showers across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Much like the past few days, a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, potentially bringing localized gusty winds. A brief reprieve in activity arrives Tuesday as the current system departs to the east, though isolated showers will likely linger across the Eastern Highlands.

This break will be short-lived, however, as a secondary, more potent weather system begins to push into the Central Mountains as early as Wednesday morning. This midweek system looks to be a significant moisture producer for the entire forecast area, with precipitation chances increasing from west to east throughout the day. Wednesday will likely be the windiest day of the period, particularly across the upper Snake River Plain, where forecast gusts are already trending toward the 4045 mph range. A Wind Advisory may eventually be necessary for several zones during the afternoon hours.

By Thursday, a much colder, polar air mass will settle over Eastern Idaho, dropping afternoon highs into the low to mid 40sa nearly 15-degree drop from Wednesdays values. Breezy conditions will persist with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph, adding a significant raw chill to the damp conditions. With these plummeting temperatures, it is increasingly likely that rain will transition to snow even at valley floors during the early morning hours of Thursday and Friday. While valley accumulations should remain light (an inch or less), more impactful snow is expected for the higher terrain, and Winter Weather headlines may be required for the mountains in the coming days.

Looking ahead to the weekend, ensemble guidance suggests the cold upper-level trough will finally begin to exit the region. While high pressure may start to build by Saturday, residual moisture and cold air aloft could keep isolated mountain showers in the forecast through the first half of the weekend. Temperatures should begin a slow recovery toward seasonal averages by Sunday. However, confidence remains low regarding the long-term outlook, as the next potential disturbance could arrive as early as the first part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

SCT/BKN CIGs across the region this morning as a slow moving low pressure area remains across the region. Generally low end VFR expected although some brief reductions to MVFR are possible in and around showers. KSUN will be the first location to see showers today before chances gradually increase at all terminals with perhaps a thunderstorm chance around KDIJ later this afternoon. Winds at all terminals outside of KSUN will become breezy this afternoon with winds in the 15-25 kt range. Precip chances will begin to lower across the area after 14/02-04Z with VFR likely as we move into Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.