textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms possible from the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley south to the border with Nevada and Utah.

- Temperatures warm to normal to above normal on Independence Day. No rain and light wind expected for the holiday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday evening, but warming continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Today through Sat night...Weak upper level troughing moves through bringing a thunderstorm/shower threat to all but the central Idaho mountains. On Fri the threat spreads northward again, but the probability is even less than Thu. By late Thu night, upper level ridging is building into all of southern and central Idaho. The influx of moisture is cut off, and temperatures are able to surge up 3 to 7 deg F, with some locations in the southwest corner exceeding the 90 deg F threshold by Independence Day. Sun is even warmer, even though a threat of convection returns to the northeast corner, triggered by an upper level trough extending from southern Canada.

Upper level winds will be mixing down to the surface with very unstable but rather dry air. The upper wind is strongest on Fri, and this should mean some gusty wind on Fri, just before temperatures increase the warming and drying trend on Independence Day.

Sun through Wed...As the ridge builds, the upper level wind becomes very light and returns to southwest flow, and possibly southerly flow by Mon. This could open the door to remnants of the monsoon being advected north and trigger a new round of showers and thunderstorms in southern and central Idaho. Increased cloud cover will be offset by warmer air from the south, so temperatures should level off and maybe even cool on Tue. The pattern stays similar on Wed; much will depend on how much moisture is available from the desert southwest. Clouds and showers/thunderstorms could cool temperatures some. One thing that should hold is that wind will remain light to moderate under the high pressure, depending on the afternoon mixing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 507 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The trend for TSRA/SHRA activity has been diminishing, especially for Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley airdromes. It is so low, it was difficutlt to include any mention of TSRA/SHRA in any of the TAFs, even KSUN and KDIJ. Wind gets gusty at KIDA, KPIH, and KSUN for the afternoon, KDIJ in the evening. Still, G20KT should be the limit.

Some CIGs this morning at KDIJ in the mid-levels, but should clear in the afternoon. Zero impact to VSBY.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The next couple of days will still feature very light precipitation and mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Today will be focused on areas from the Snake River southward. On Fri, it could be more spread out thanks to a trough pushing through Canada that has enough influence this far south to trigger something. The main problem area will likely be the northeast corner of the fire weather area of responsibility. High pressure will dominate the holiday weekend, warming temperatures and drying humidity. Afternoon humidity going below 15 percent will be limited to ares of the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley for today and Fri. The surging temperatures on Independence day will spread the dryness to the higher elevations in the southern highlands and southeast highlands. The very dry conditions will continue to expand to higher elevations with the overall subsidence.

Temperatures may level off from Thu to Fri after warming from yesteday to today, but stronger warming returns for Sat with peak temperatures likely to be Mon.

Not much risk of wind gusting to 25 mph until Tue afternoon when the upper level wind gets a chance to increase.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.