textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds

- Warming trend continues through the Fourth of July weekend

- No storms expected on the Fourth, but more thunderstorms expected next week...potentially as early as Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Low pressure remains in place of the western U.S., with multiple ripples working across Idaho. These little "waves" will interact with what moisture remains in place for a daily chance of showers and storms. There overall trend though is for the airmass to dry out. It may take a bit longer, especially across higher elevations with all of the moisture that has fallen since the weekend. Where the air is "drier" there is a better chance of seeing stronger outflow winds. There is a 50-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph, with higher end gusts approaching 55-60 mph. Again, if we don't mix out some of the more humid air around...those stronger winds are not likely given the current pattern. On the flip side, especially today and tomorrow, there is a risk of locally heavy downpours with stronger storms. After a more widespread threat today, most showers and storms tomorrow will be along the Montana border, and extending across the southeast highlands through the South Hills/Albion Mountains. We will need to watch for anything that might develop along outflow boundaries elsewhere. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph. For Friday, any thunderstorm potential remains confined to higher elevations...although the chance across bench areas and across the northern half of the Snake Plain is a bit higher. Temperatures gradually climb through Friday, with more low to mid 80s forecast for high temperatures.

For the Fourth of July weekend, the trend continues to remain storm-free on the Fourth for now. We will likely see some clouds and some gusts in spots around 25 mph. Sunday MAY end up being dry as well, although there is a hint of a few light showers/virga possibly developing as well as a couple of thunderstorms. Highs jump over the weekend to the mid 80s through mid 90s. The pattern next week tries to establish some type of southwest/monsoon pattern as the Four Corners high rebuilds. The southwest flow will help hold temperatures in the 80s with some 90s in the forecast. The question would be how much moisture works north across Idaho. The Blend of Models has some daily potential for light showers and dry thunderstorms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 439 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Main impact continues to be showers and thunderstorms across the area currently. Have kept PROB30 for thunderstorms for all TAF sites except SUN until 02z. Look for thunderstorm outflows up to around 30 kts with these thunderstorms. Winds drop off this evening with overall clearing overnight. With heating tomorrow expect another round of showers and thunderstorms. Have vicinity showers for all TAF sites and PROB30 thunderstorms for all TAF sites except SUN. Expect outflows of around 25kts tomorrow for any thunderstorms. Convection tomorrow will not be as strong or as widespread as today. Convection looks to end sooner tomorrow. For most sites convection will end by late afternoon, around 23z to 00z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The atmosphere remains unstable enough to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, but the moisture content should be way down and humidity for the afternoon should start lowering. Wind will be light today and Thu, but as the upper level pattern flattens, the wind should be stronger Fri. Light showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms will decrease in coverage for Thu and Fri. By Sat an upper level high in the Four Corners area will be building, and by Sun or Mon temperatures in lower elevations will start surpassing the 90 deg F mark in many locations. By Mon, a threat of showers and thunderstorms returns with another upper level trough approaching from the west.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.