textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Expecting mainly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday with only slight chances of convection with much more widespread storms Saturday and Sunday, especially on Saturday as much cooler conditions move in over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper low continued to drop south into central California and Nevada. A weak upper wave has pushed north today through eastern Idaho and had some widespread stratiform rain this morning in many areas with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected later this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorm and shower coverage will be much less as moisture sets up closer to the closed low in California Wednesday and Thursday but at least isolated convection is possible. Expect coverage to become much more widespread Friday and Saturday as closed low opens up and upper trof moves through Idaho with surface front. Saturday looks to be the wettest day in the forecast period. After the rain cooled conditions today expect much warmer conditions Wednesday with high temperatures back into the 80s low elevations and 70s mountains continuing into Thursday and Friday. By Saturday highs down to the 50s to lower 60s mountains and 60s valleys with rain expected. A warming trend will return early next week Monday into Tuesday with above normal temperatures once again. Will have breezy southerly to southeast winds in the southern mountains Wednesday with 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers have been around all morning, and the overcast skies have prevented a trigger for the TSRA in most places. However, this cover is expected to thin and TSRA are expected at PROB30 or better during the afternoon for the five airdromes. Wind appears stronger than yesterday, with KDIJ falling into the marginal severe forecast area this Day 1 from SPC, so it has the strongest expected outflow. Other than the windshear and lightning, impacts should not affect VSBY or CIG significantly. TSRA should end by 27/02Z all locations, with SHRA extending through at least 27/06Z. Skies should partially clear after 27/08Z leaving little chance for precipitation. The risk of severe strength TSRA is over on Wed, and TSRA risk is generally lower Wed afternoon as well.

Wind is a little more difficult to forecast, outside of the variable with G35KT at the 4 western airports, while KDIJ has the potential for G45KT. Outside of the SHRA/TSRA causing havoc with wind direction, wind is expected to stay elevated and southeast to south for KSUN after only a short time in the middle of the night of northwest. An approaching trough that will trigger the TSRA/SHRA for Wed will bring with it moderate to strong southeast to south wind, affecting the airports from west to east as it progresses through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Expect a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms today with isolated to scattered coverage. Brief heavy downpours are possible within the main rain core but fire starts from lighting are possible on the outskirts of the thunderstorms. Gusty, erratic outflow winds are once again likely today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through the rest of the week, but storms should return to the dry variety.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.