textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today with breezy afternoon conditions.

- Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

- Rain and snow showers returning late Saturday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Satellite imagery indicates northwest flow remains in place across the region today. Breezy conditions continue in the Snake Plain with observed gusts of 20-30 mph. A weak shortwave and associated warm frontal boundary are expected to shift into East Idaho Saturday ahead of a broader Pacific low currently off the northern California coast. Model guidance has trended further north with this feature, which should allow light precipitation to overspread much of the forecast area. Saturday will continue unseasonably warm, with valley temperatures climbing into the 50s. High-resolution ensembles indicate a 40-55% chance of temperatures exceeding 60 degrees along and south of the Snake River southwest of Pocatello.

As the primary upper low shifts through the Great Basin Sunday into Monday, precipitation will become more widespread, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Overnight and early Sunday morning, cooler temperatures may allow for a brief window of snow mixing with rain reaching valley floors in the northern portions of the forecast area. Minimal, if any, accumulation is expected before snow levels rise to between 6,500 and 7,500 feet by Sunday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations will be primarily elevation-dependent. The Sawtooths, Big Hole Range, and the Bear River Range are expected to see the highest snowfall totals at 2-4 inches, well below any thresholds of concern for headlines. The probability of receiving more than 4 inches of accumulation is less than 40% for even these high-elevation areas.

A brief transitory ridge will provide a dry reprieve Tuesday before the next Pacific system arrives Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of this system will help push daytime temperatures up slightly, with a 50-60% chance of exceeding 60 degrees across the Magic Valley and Raft River regions. This trough pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday, ushering in another mild but unsettled northwest flow pattern for the remainder of the week. A series of shortwaves will maintain periods of mountain rain/snow and valley rain through the end of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1038 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Skies are mostly clear this morning and will likely remain as such into midday Saturday. Winds are expected to pick up shortly across the valley terminals to around 10-15 kts with gusts in the 20-25 kt range expected. KDIJ and KSUN will see winds generally around 10 kts. All locations will see winds becoming lighter shortly after sunset and these lighter winds will continue throughout the day Saturday. No precip is expected although some mid/high level clouds will begin to increase in coverage near the end, and just beyond, the current 18Z cycle on Saturday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.