textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds ahead of the cold front today with gusty wind last through Monday

- Showers and thunderstorms slowly increase through evening with rain, high mountain snow and storms through the weekend

- Drier conditions delayed until later next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Today's progression of cold front and advancement of showers and storms has slowed down a bit. Outside of the central mountains south into Albion Mountains and South Hills, we should see little shower or storm development until late afternoon. Where clouds have thinned and ahead of the front, winds are increasing with 30-50 mph expected...strongest extending from the Montana border along I-15 south through the Snake Plain and through Craters of the Moon. A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect through this evening in those areas. Expect some enhanced wind gusts potentially beyond 50 mph with any shower/thunderstorm development especially before sunset. We will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with one area concentrated in the vicinity of the front, while one or more waves is anticipated behind it through the overnight hours. The front should clear the Bear Lake area around sunrise.

For Saturday through Monday, expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. For Saturday, this looks to a fairly widespread chance for seeing measurable/appreciable rainfall for all of central and eastern Idaho. It still looks like lowest elevations along the Montana border, and across the Snake Plain/Magic Valley, much lower rainfall amounts are expected...with up to 0.20" possible as an average amount. Given the nature of precipitation (showers or bands with embedded thunderstorms), we could easily see more in some spots closer to 0.10" or 0.60" (the given range in probability forecasts). For most of the South Hills/Albion Mountains, Wood River Valley, and southeast highlands, the general forecast range is 0.20-0.50" with the lowest potential precipitation amounts of 0.10-0.30" and highest end of the potential range around 1.0". For the rest of central and eastern Idaho, the most likely range for precipitation amounts will be 0.40-1.0"...highest across the central mountains and along the Montana border. In those areas, probability forecasts are 1.5-2.0" on the highest end...which may be plausible as the low may slow down and linger over the central mountains a bit longer. It will remain breezy outside of any showers and storms. At the moment, we stay below any thresholds for wind-related headlines...a lot of it will depend on any prolonged period of clearing over the weekend and how quickly the low departs on Monday. Looking thunderstorm gust potential, there is a 50%+ chance of gusts over 35 and potentially around 50 mph tomorrow. Given the pattern over us, while we can see potential for those types of storm gusts, that seems to be way overdone. It will be an issue to watch out for though. Lastly, although it is the weekend before the Fourth, we are looking snow across higher elevations of the central mountains due to colder temperatures with this event. While we may light snow falling down to 6500-7500ft at times of heavier precipitation, some accumulation is expected mainly above 7500ft. We have 1-3" as a general forecast, but above 10000ft may produce a few more inches especially across the Lost River Range north into Lemhi County.

The drying trend for next appears to be delayed until later next week. The trend in the extended forecast is took some moisture around and one or more "waves" impacting central and eastern Idaho. We do eventually warm back up into the 70s and 80s by the end of next week. Even if we do see more showers and storms around, we should be returning to the virga/light rain with a few thunderstorms around pattern we have been seeing lately.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Midday satellite imagery showing a bank of thicker clouds to the west associated with the nearing low pressure system moving into the area tonight. We may see clouds clear out some across eastern reaches of the state as flow mixes and south-southwest flow dominates ahead of the cold front. This increased mixing will bring much stronger winds to the surface areawide, leading to gusty conditions across all ports.

Guidance has been delaying the onset of the precipitation this afternoon/evening and given the recent radar trends, we're inclined to believe this guidance. Have pushed back onset of precipitation for most ports in the area, save for KSUN where light radar returns are already beginning to stream in. Given some instability and an increase in moisture, we could see an afternoon thunderstorm impact KDIJ, but the window of time will be limited. Tonight we'll see rain chances increase and then hold through Saturday with rounds of embedded thunderstorms possible. Winds will stay on the gusty side of things as well during this increasingly active weather weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Quite a bit of weather coming our way that will impact fire weather conditions. Through this evening, where we have cleared out so far, we are expecting gusts of 30-50 mph...strongest across Zone 410, 411, the Craters Portion of 425, and adjacent portions of 476. More persistent cloud cover will keep surface winds much lower across the rest of the central mountains for the most part. Humidities are much higher today, and not close enough to trigger any RED FLAG WARNINGS...but if conditions align it is possible for a holdover or new start to spread. Winds will remain breezy even as the low departs Monday, but for now...humidity values remain pretty elevated.

In terms of thunderstorm coverage, we do expect isolated storms to develop over the central mountains and with the front as it shifts east through tonight. Coverage is POTENTIALLY scattered across Zone 411, and eventually across most of the central mountains. The expectation is there will be some breaks in the clouds or enough instability to overcome cloud cover to do that. We will keep the WARNING out for Zone 422, although this may easily bust if we can't get some breaks and instability to develop. Today's thunderstorm gust potential above 35 mph is 30-70%, with highest gusts hitting 45-50 mph...which may coincide more with enhanced gust potential as the front crosses Zone 476 and across the Snake Plain/Magic Valley (410/425). Overnight, we are expecting some lightning potential to continue with a rapid uptick tomorrow. Although we are expecting scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, we are expecting wetting rains to fall, even across lower elevations where the chance of is sitting at 30-50%. Shower and thunderstorm potential continues on Sunday, which things south to north later Monday. Thunderstorm gust potential for Saturday and Sunday is CONDITIONAL, meaning it will depend on things align. Probability forecasts for tomorrow show widespread 50-90% potential for gusts over 35 mph and trying to push toward 55 mph. We are not as confident due to 1) more humid conditions would be less conducive for high gusts unless storms become stronger than expected, and 2) cloud cover may reduce instability needed for those conditions. We will obviously see how things trend in the next 12-24 hours. Enhanced outflow winds are possible Sunday Monday as well. Precipitation amounts are "lowest" across the Snake Plain (410), Magic Valley (425), and areas of 413/427 along the Utah border with up 0.20" possible in general. The rest of 413 and 427 may see up 0.50". The rest of central and eastern Idaho we see a lot of moisture falling, including light accumulating snow above 7500ft at times across the central mountains. Those areas will see 0.40-1.0" and could be locally higher across Zones 475 and 476 on the ridgelines.

We do dry out next week, BUT that appears to be delayed until toward the end of the week. Until then, we will see a gradual warming trend though, along with some mid level moisture around...looking very similar to the past few days where we had some virga/light rain and isolated thunderstorms.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054-067. Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ422.