textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight cooling expected today ahead of near normal to below normal temperatures on Wednesday.

- Monsoon moisture increasing with storms trending scattered through mid-week. Locally heavy downpours with outflow winds up to 50 mph possible.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures return late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Early morning radar shows showers with a few embedded lightning strikes working through central and extreme southeast Idaho as featured in CAMs. Southwest flow will continue to lift monsoonal moisture into Southeast Idaho and support daily shower and thunderstorm chances through mid to late week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will trend more scattered today with activity continuing to lift northward and primarily being focused across the central mountains and east/southeast highlands throughout the day and afternoon. Today's high temperatures will run several degrees cooler than yesterday's. A shortwave on Wednesday will result in both increased convective activity and a noticeable cool down with temperatures returning to around normal to slightly below normal with widespread 80s across the low elevations. Storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall with outflow winds the strongest today at 40 to 50 mph and closer to 35 to 45 mph on Wednesday. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures return late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 458 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The current round of showers and thunderstorms will dissipate by around 18z with the next batch shifting into Southeast Idaho during the evening and overnight hours. Have included PROB30s everywhere with the exception of KSUN, where less than 30 percent chance of thunderstorms exists. Storms will be capable of outflow gusts 40 to 45 kts and heavy rainfall will be possible under the strongest storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Monsoon moisture will support daily shower and thunderstorm chances through mid to late week. Storms will continue to trend wetter and more scattered through Wednesday. Activity today will favor Fire Weather Zones 413, 427, 475, and 476. Heading into the nighttime hours and further into Wednesday, coverage will shift further east and favor Zones 427, 425, 410, and 411 before scattered activity overspreads all Zones during the afternoon. This will likely necessitate Red Flag Warnings due to thunderstorm coverage. Storms will be capable of locally heavy downpours with outflow winds the strongest today at 40 to 50 mph and closer to 35 to 45 mph on Wednesday. Temperatures will run normal to below normal on Wednesday before dry conditions and above normal temperatures return late week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.