textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- No high impact systems expected through the weekend but some isolated showers will be possible each day.

- Temperatures to remain at or slightly above climatological norms through next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows continued mid/high level clouds streaking across eastern Idaho today. Have seen a few breaks from time to time across the Magic Valley and parts of the Snake Plain allowing a bit more sunlight to shine down on the area but for the most part, it's been another mostly cloudy day. Temps however remain on the warmer side of normal with low to mid 50s being observed across the lower elevations with 40s across the high country. Precip hasn't been too much of an issue today and it likely won't be through daybreak tomorrow aside from maybe a very isolated rain/snow shower around Island Park or into the central mountains. Overnight lows should be seasonably mild, once again, with lower elevations low running within a few degrees, above and below, the freezing mark. As we head towards daybreak Wednesday, a weak upper level impulse will swing through the area and hi-res CAMs show the potential for some light showers to develop mid-morning across the central mountains and into the SE part of the area, perhaps even into the Snake Plain. These would be light, isolated to scattered in nature, and of relatively low impact however. Snow levels generally remain above 7kft so rain is the most likely precip type for MOST locations. Winds should remain light for Wednesday along with continued above normal temps for mid November. Expect upper 40s to lower 50s across much of the lower valleys tomorrow, mid to upper 40s across the high country.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Plenty of active weather continues throughout the Western half of the United States during the extended forecast period, but we are hard pressed to get any or much of it to make its way into Eastern Idaho. On Thursday, on area of low pressure will be dropping into northern California and while that brings about a 15 to 20 percent chance for some showery activity in parts of the Central Mountains and South Hills, that low will continue its drop southward through California and take most of the moisture with it. This low will open the door for some cooler air to work its way into our area though, as we see highs go from mostly low to mid 50s on Thursday to 40s on Friday. Weak ridging keeps us looking mostly dry for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Models are advertising the potential for a cold front to pass through late Monday into Tuesday which would bring another drop in temperatures and a small chance for precipitation, but it doesn't look very impressive at this point. We will keep watching and waiting!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Main aviation concern continues to be fog and/or low stratus potential at KBYI. The NBM and HRRR continue to aggressively support impacts while some other guidance sources don't, and we're not yet seeing a clear picture in surface trends on weather stations as well as satellite to confirm or deny anything from guidance scenarios. Refined timing in the 06z TAF just hinting at possible impacts from 10-17z/3-10am with 6SM BR VCFG SCT005, but confidence just isn't there to introduce actual cig or vsby hits. There remains a solid 30- 40% chance of IFR or even LIFR conditions should this "go" and the surface fully moisten. Amendments are possible as we continue to monitor. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and very light winds.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.