textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated dry thunderstorm chances this evening ahead of a shortwave trough.

- Remaining hot, dry, and breezy through much of the forecast period.

- Looking a bit cooler by Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

It's looking like a fairly quiet start to our Wednesday morning with many seeing morning temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the area. A weak shortwave will be passing through during the afternoon and overnight hours into early Thursday. It brings some breezy afternoon winds with gusts of 20-30 mph and small precipitation chances. Generally speaking, it's about a 15 to 20 percent chance across all of Eastern Idaho with a closer to 30 percent chance up in the Central Mountains. However, there is little to no QPF in the forecast, so any showers look most likely to be virga instead of any appreciable rain. Though that's not surprising with min RHs this afternoon in the teens for most. Before the shortwave really makes it to the area, highs today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, meaning most will range from the upper 70s in the upper Snake River Plain and mid to upper 80s in the lower Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Valley. It won't be until tomorrow that temperatures cool slightly, and we lose those 5 degrees we pick up today, leading to mostly 70s and low 80s on Thursday afternoon. Winds will increase a bit for Thursday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph and nearing LAKE WIND ADVISORY criteria in the afternoon. Don't worry, the heat is back on as soon as Friday afternoon with highs topping out in the upper 80s and low 90s in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain and low to mid 80s in the upper Snake River Plain. Breezy winds continue again on Friday and increase yet again on Saturday ahead of the next trough moving into Eastern Idaho. These gusts on Saturday into Sunday look to be the strongest of the week and still very little to no precipitation arriving with this next system. Instead, we will look ahead to another potential system arriving in the second half of next week and cross our fingers for some precipitation with that one.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 457 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions continue early this morning with mostly light winds across the area and little to no cloud cover. That will begin to change later today as clouds arrive ahead of and with a shortwave trough passing through the area and bringing very small isolated storm/shower chances to KBYI and KSUN. It seems doubtful that any actual precipitation makes it to either terminal, but if it does, it is more likely at those two sites. While the isolated storm/shower chance is not zero at the rest of our sites, it is low enough to leave out of the TAF for now. Winds will increase a bit for Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A shortwave trough is moving through Eastern Idaho late today into tomorrow and will bring nearly RED FLAG WARNING conditions to much of the area, especially in south-central Idaho today and tomorrow. Today, the low RHs are there (10-15 percent) along with about a 10 percent chance of a dry thunderstorm, and wind gusts ranging from 20- 25 mph and nearing 30 mph on ridgetops. Wind gusts will be a bit stronger on Thursday, but isolated thunderstorm chances will be lower and afternoon min RHs will increase ever so slightly. Given the coordination done on the day shift yesterday, have not issued any RED FLAG WARNINGS at this point, but know we are VERY close to those conditions today, especially around the Summit Creek Fire area. We will be hot, dry, and windy again on Friday and Saturday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES