textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and storms around through Thursday

- Hotter temperatures and very dry conditions return heading into the weekend, including Heat Risk impacts. Saturday expected to be hottest day with many locations at 100 degrees.

- Critical to near-criticial fire weather conditions expected for the next several days

- Wildfire smoke will continue to produce poor air quality especially in areas closer to central and western Idaho

UPDATE

Issued at 759 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered thunderstorm coverage appears likely later this afternoon and evening across portions of southern and eastern Idaho so a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Some potential for early AM clouds and smoke to limit potential instability but coverage still seems widespread enough in hi-res model output to support issuance. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern with the latter potentially as high as 45-55 mph with the strongest of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture remains in place through Thursday, with the deepest moisture across eastern Idaho for today. Today will a bit of a higher risk of decent downpours vs tomorrow. Where storms fire today, the risk of gusts over 35 mph is likely with strongest gusts potentially peaking around 55-60 mph. Thunderstorm coverage is going to be dependent on where we see more sun breaks today, as smoke is still around in some places and/or we can overcome morning cloud cover. Going into tomorrow, we are going to maintain isolated overnight storms (similar to this morning), and 15-25% coverage tomorrow. There is a 25-50% chance for gusts over 35 mph, potentially peaking at 45-50 mph. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, pushing tomorrow through the 80s into the mid 90s in some locations.

Friday and Saturday still look hot, very dry, and breezy. Temperatures will be in the low 90s for even "cooler valleys" this time of year with warmer spots pushing low to mid 100s. This will rapidly increase HeatRisk impacts across most of central and eastern Idaho. The stretch is short, but still important enough to take precautions to prevent heat-related issues and also check on those more vulnerable in these conditions. We do see temperatures dropping heading into next week, BUT it will remain really dry and breezy at times. This is the result of the ridge breaking down, but at the moment the flow remains more westerly vs. returning to southwesterly. This will keep drier air in place. Temperatures actually return to AVERAGE for beginning of August.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 449 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

We will see a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage later today, which will shift to the northeast and continue through early evening. Thunderstorm gusts up to 45kts are possible, along with with brief bursts of rain that may reduce visibility to MVFR. We have maintained PROB30 for all sites EXCEPT SUN where the chance potentially remains just low enough to not mentioned in the current set of TAFS. By late evening, all TAF sites should be clear of any showers or storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture remains in place through tomorrow. We will areas across higher terrain that MAY reach scattered coverage. Confidence is low at the moment due to smoke potentially keeping instability down, as well as morning cloud cover and waiting for cloud breaks to develop. Thunderstorm gusts over 35 mph are likely pretty much over all of central and eastern Idaho. Like yesterday, we could see a few storms with peak gusts near 60 mph. We will maintain isolated coverage through most of the night, with a bit of resurgence tomorrow across the central mountains and Zone 413 in the southeast corner. Thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated based on the latest trends. Today will see more of a mix of wet and dry storms, with stronger storms producing decent burst of rain. Thursday's storms will be mostly dry.

We quickly dry out starting Friday with very dry air in place heading into next week. The main impact Friday will be increasing HeatRisk impacts for crews. Saturday will be the hottest day, with some mountain locations seeing highs in the 80s to near 90. Valley locations will be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Winds increase Saturday, with critical fire weather conditions over most areas minus Zone 413 based on the latest forecast. Gusts will be 25-45 mph elsewhere single digit and low teen afternoon humidity. We will a classic ridge breakdown pattern Sunday as low pressure remains to our north, but keeps fairly dry air in place with strong winds expected. Winds exceeding threshold for critical fire weather conditions are likely going to be everywhere with gusts of 25-45 mph once again. Temperatures briefly drop back to around AVERAGE, but warm again next week slowly. Winds will back off a bit, but humidity will remain low, including areas of poor overnight recovery. In fact, a return to poor overnight recovery will likely be a daily issue after tonight.

AIR QUALITY

Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Air quality has improved across the eastern half of the region and some of the Air Quality Advisories have been canceled accordingly but still linger across the western half which includes the Magic Valley, parts of the Arco Desert and throughout the central mountains. See the alerts from Idaho DEQ for additional information.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ051-052- 055>057-067>075. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413-427.