textproduct: Pocatello

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Convective development has been slow to materialize across eastern Idaho today. Extensive morning and early afternoon cloud cover effectively capped diurnal heating, suppressing overall thermodynamic instability. However, recent radar trends indicate that the cloud cap is beginning to erode, with isolated to scattered convective initiation now underway over the higher terrain. While recent high-resolution convective-allowing models (CAMs)including the latest HRRR runshave noticeably dialed back forecast precipitation totals and overall storm coverage, the ambient atmosphere remains abnormally moisture-laden by local standards. With rich precipitable water values still entrenched across the region, any slow-moving thunderstorm that develops through this evening will remain capable of producing high rainfall rates and localized flash flooding.

From a geographic standpoint, the strongest model signal for thunderstorm development through tonight targets the Central Mountains. The signal is comparatively weaker across the Eastern Highlandswhere a Flood Watch remains in effectbut even isolated storm development there could quickly prove problematic given high rainfall efficiency. Outside of convection, daytime maximum temperatures today have been significantly suppressed compared to recent days due to cloud shading.

This reprieve from the heat will be short-lived. Heat begins returning on Thursday as high-pressure ridging amplifies over the region and drier air pushes in from the southwest. While sufficient lingering moisture will remain in place to support low-end shower and storm chances across the higher terrain on Thursday, the vast majority of eastern Idaho will begin transitioning toward a dry, typical late-summer regime.

By Friday and continuing through much of next week, strong upper-level ridging will firmly lock into place across the Intermountain West. Widespread dry conditions will prevail for lower elevations, though isolated, terrain-forced afternoon showers or storms cannot be entirely ruled out on any given day. The primary headline heading into the weekend and next week will be persistent, unseasonably high heat. Afternoon maximum temperatures across lower valley locationsincluding the Snake Plain and Magic Valleyare increasingly likely to climb into the mid-to-upper 90s, with a few localized spots approaching the 100-degree mark.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1022 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Expect VFR conditions and overall light winds through the period as weak high pressure builds into the area. There will be some showers north of DIJ with afternoon heating combined with lingering moisture. There is less than a 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms at DIJ tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to get going early this afternoon and if the latest CAMs are to be believed, it looks like most of the action will be up in the Central Mountains and parts of the Eastern Highlands, mainly Fire Weather Zones 411, 413, 475, and 476. That's not to say that the other zones will be completely left out, but models have trended towards more isolated activity there instead. Storms are still expected to bring wetting rains today as PWATs remain quite elevated, generally ranging from 1- 1.50 inches across our coverage area. The severe threat with storms looks very low with most likely wind gusts from storms in the 35-45 mph range. The flooding threat is the main threat today with a FLOOD WATCH in effect for portions of FWZ 410, 411, and 413 and a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for the Wapiti burn scar. Flash flooding will also be a concern on the recent Ohio fire burn scar, too. After today, drier air makes its way back into Eastern Idaho and temperatures will begin to warm again, too. While we will keep around an isolated thunderstorm chance each afternoon, Thursday and Friday are expected to be drier days. Models are showing the potential for a better push of monsoonal moisture on Saturday, but there remains some uncertainty for the weekend at this point. If we can reach scattered thunderstorm levels on Saturday and we see breezy winds in some drier areas, it could be the next potential day for Red Flag Warnings.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.