textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch Through Monday Afternoon: A secondary surge of moisture is moving through the area today.

- Raw & Chilly Through Tuesday: A deep upper-level trough will keep dense cloud cover and unseasonably cool temperatures locked over eastern Idaho, with daytime highs limited to the 40s and 50s.

- Late Week Ridge & Pleasant Next Weekend: High pressure ridging brings clearing skies and temperatures warming to seasonal norms by Thursday and Friday, setting up a much more pleasant weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

While the "main event" of our precipitation has wrapped up, the second round of it is moving into the area early this morning as our deep upper-level low dropping through eastern Oregon today continues to bring up Pacific moisture from the remnants of Rachel. This low is going to move south into Nevada and then east through Utah through the first half of this week, keeping rain chances around not only today, but also on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances remain widespread today, but the higher rainfall amounts are expected to be concentrated in parts of the South Hills and Eastern Highlands and will likely range from 0.20-0.40 inches of rainfall with some locally higher amounts. That said, we are still expecting some continued rainfall throughout the rest of our CWA, too, so the Flood Watch will continue as expected. By this afternoon, shower coverage is expected to break up a bit and become a bit more spotty. On the topic of current alerts, a Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning continue this morning as temperatures continue to drop into the 30s in the eastern Magic Valley, Snake River Plain, and out across the Arco Desert area. Expect a mix of freeze warnings and frost advisories to continue for the next several mornings, especially with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking even colder. Of course, the cloud cover could keep temperatures from dropping quite as much as we expect, but we will see where they end up this morning and go from there. Of note, our Frost/Freeze products generally end on October 15th.

Highs today will struggle to make it into the 50s for most and even where it does, we'll only reach the mid 50s. The Central Mountains will slowly begin to warm up on Tuesday as precipitation begins to move out wit highs reaching the 50s there and upper 40s to low 50s everywhere else. In the second half of the week, we see high pressure beginning to build back in over Idaho, so look forward to a warming, drying trend. By Thursday afternoon, more of us will return to the 60s. Given the current forecast, next weekend looks like a beautiful fall weekend to get out and enjoy.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The second wave of moisture has arrived and precipitation will impact all sites on and off throughout the morning before becoming more spotty and even drying out at times in the afternoon and evening. Cloud cover and rainfall are making for a wide variety of MVFR, IFR, and even LIFR conditions due to low CIGs and VIS as heavier bands of rainfall move over TAF sites. When we get breaks in precipitation, look for small improvements/lifting of low CIGs, to MVFR and even VFR thresholds. Wind will not be much of an aviation impact today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Showers continue streaming northward from Nevada and Utah into Idaho early this morning. This is the second round of moisture being brought to our area from remnants of Rachel being lifted northward thanks to another area of low pressure moving through eastern Oregon early this week. This will continue to bring another 0.15 to 0.30 inches of rainfall to much of the area today with some locally higher amounts in the Eastern Highlands. Precipitation will become a bit more spotty in the afternoon and evening and then slowly shift eastward on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the cold temperatures, look for some high elevation snow to continue, generally above 7500 feet. The Central Mountains are expected to dry out first over the next 24-36 hours or so as isolated to scattered showers continue in the east on and off on Tuesday and early Wednesday as our area of low pressure moves south and east through Nevada and Utah on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the second half of the week, look for drier and warmer conditions to return as high pressure begins to build in over the area.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this afternoon for IDZ051>067-073-075. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051-052-055. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ053-054.