textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions will persist across central and eastern Idaho with a HEAT ADVISORY in effect through Sunday

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms going although chances will gradually diminish

- Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions expected for the next several days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Our pattern remains locked in for the next few days. Monsoon moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms around. The best chance for development today is fairly similar to yesterday, across the South Hills/Albion Mountains, southeast highlands, through Driggs and the Teton Valley. A few storms are also expected from Mackay through Gilmore Summit and into southwest Montana. There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms again for most of eastern Idaho due to strong outflow winds. There is a 10-40% chance of gusts over 35 mph across the central mountains, and up to 90% elsewhere, with highest gusts over 60 mph. Outside of storms, gusts today are forecast in the 25-35 mph range. Overnight, we expect the focus for light showers to shift to the central mountains and Lava Beds around Shoshone. We currently are not putting thunderstorms in the forecast, the chance is NOT ZERO. For tomorrow, a few showers and storms are expected across the central mountains and along the Montana border. Another area should be from around Malta to Driggs. There is a 20-60% chance for gusts over 35 mph. Wind gusts outside of storms will be similar to what we are seeing today. A HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect for the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and South Hills/Albion Mountains. We have extended it through tomorrow evening, as well as added valley locations down toward the Utah border through Malad and the Cache Valley. Highs will be mainly in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

The pattern remains fairly unchanged through Tuesday. The main chance for showers and storms will remain outside of the central mountains.Temperatures do back off slightly, which may put us just under any thresholds for continuing headlines for HeatRisk. Although all it will take is for temperatures to creep back up a few degrees and we will be back into Heat Advisory territory. The models are again trending drier, maybe not 100% storm-free initially, but still drier for the end of the upcoming week and next weekend. The ridge is forecast to shift north and west, push the bulk of the monsoon moisture well to our south. This may initially drop temperatures back a bit more, but return us to similar high temperatures to what we are seeing right now. The pattern does look breezy, which along with hot and dry conditions may influence fire weather concerns across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions continue again today and tonight as isolated to scattered thunderstorms get going this afternoon. SUN is the only site that looks to remain outside of TSRA activity today, but there is increasing potential for some showery activity at SUN early Sunday morning. This afternoon and evening, if a storm passes directly over a terminal, expect drops in VIS/CIGs to at least MVFR conditions, though we did briefly see some IFR conditions with a storm or two yesterday over PIH. Wind gusts outside of storms today will be around 20 to 25 kts and expect similar wind gusts on Sunday, too. Winds WITH storms will be capable of gusting to 45 kts, though one or two stronger storms could even gust closer to 50-55 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

RED FLAG WARNING today continues until 9 PM MDT for scattered thunderstorms in Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, and 427. These storms will be capable of producing erratic, gusty outflow winds around 60 mph as much of the area remains under a "Marginal" risk for severe weather from the SPC. Some small hail and brief downpours are also possible with these storms, but it will be a mix of wet and dry storms.

On Sunday, CAMs are picking up some showery activity in the Central Mountains through the morning hours before we see a few more isolated storms pop up once again in the afternoon and those will mostly be in the South Hills and Eastern Highlands off the terrain. We are going to brushing right up against Red Flag Warning criteria in FWZ 475 and 476 on Sunday. Winds will certainly be there as gusts will range from 20-30 mph, but this new introduction of cloud cover and showery activity could bring up min RHs to more of the 15 to 20 percent range than the previously forecast 10 to 15 percent range. Regardless of any Red Flag Warning or lack thereof on Sunday, we will still see near-critital fire weather conditions throughout much of Eastern Idaho due to gusty winds and low RHs. Everyone can expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph and min RHs between 15-25 percent with some parts of the Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Vally dropping to closer to 10 percent. If there are any hiding hold-overs from this week's thunderstorm activity, we will likely see them flare up tomorrow (if they don't today).

There is very little change in the forecast for Monday compared to Sunday, though a few of the CAMs show scattered showery activity early Monday morning. Confidence in that occurring is low. Expect continued hot temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm chances through most of the week ahead.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>059. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413- 427.