textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds through this evening will create critical fire weather conditions, as well as issues with crosswinds and boating on American Falls Reservoir

- A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected later Friday through the weekend

- AVERAGE to ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Gusty winds will continue through sunset, creating multiple impacts across eastern Idaho. Speeds of 25-35 mph with some spots gusting to 45 mph are forecast, with choppy conditions on American Falls Reservoir and strong crosswinds on some north- south roads. The highest winds will be closer to ridgetop, and across the Magic Valley, South Hills/Albion Mountains, and a good chunk of the Snake Plain. We continue with a WIND ADVISORY (Magic Valley) and LAKE WIND ADVISORY in place. On the fire weather side, low humidity and gusty winds are creating critical fire conditions across a good portion of south-central and eastern Idaho, especially lower elevations. The weather will be much calmer tomorrow and most of Friday. Mid-level moisture and virga increases Thursday night and Friday, but we really are not expecting any type of impact until afternoon and evening. That is when we should see enough instability of an increase in isolated dry thunderstorms and stronger outflow winds. The current forecast has the best chance across the central mountains south across the Magic Valley and through the South Hills/Albion Mountains. That said, we may see development across most of eastern Idaho by late afternoon. As the low itself swings across the state over the weekend, we actually looking multiple locations seeing measurable rainfall. It isn't much overall, but certainly something much needed. The best chance of showers, storms, and appreciable rainfall (0.10-0.40") will be in the central mountains, and along the Montana and Wyoming borders. There is a 20-40% chance of more than 0.40" across mid and upper slopes of the central mountains, and 30-50% of exceeding that end of the range along the border from Island Park south along the Tetons. For most of the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and higher elevations near the Utah border, there is little to no chance of rain or even a shower or storm developing. Outside of showers and storms, gusts of 25-35 mph are possible for most locations EXCEPT the central mountains and eastern highlands. A few shower or storms may linger Monday especially closer to the Divide, but the pattern early next week eventually returns to warmer and dry.

Temperatures will be up and down depending on the daily weather pattern expected. We rebound back into the 80s and low 90s before the weekend arrives. We drop back into the 70s to mid 80s for valley locations over the weekend, and then in the 85-95 degree range potentially by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Gusty winds remain the biggest aviation impact once again today with afternoon gusts of 30 to 35 kts at BYI and PIH, and 20 to 25 kts at IDA, SUN, and DIJ. There is very little cloud cover throughout the TAF period. Winds decrease significantly overnight and will be much lighter on Thursday. VFR conditions continue throughout today and tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

RED FLAG WARNING continues for our Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, 425, and 427 due to gusty winds and low RHs as a VERY dry cold front continues its way through eastern Idaho today creating widespread near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Within the RED FLAG WARNING areas, min RHs are between 10 and 15 percent with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Elsewhere, min RHs remain near-critical at 15 to 25 percent with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Winds will significantly diminish overnight and we will finally get a good break from the wind on Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to move into eastern Idaho. Afternoon winds will only be around 15 to 20 mph for Thursday and Friday afternoons, though it remains VERY dry with min RHs still around 10 to 15 percent across much of the forecast area. A shortwave trough approaches late Friday and arrives on Saturday. This will bring increasing chances for dry storms late Friday and a mix of wet and dry storms on Saturday. Winds also increase again on Saturday, to the 25 to 35 mph range, but min RHs will also increase to 20 to 30 percent. We will have to see how quickly this system exits the area on Sunday as isolated storms have about a 20 to 40 percent chance of lingering for the second half of the weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413- 425-427. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-055.