textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend to afternoon highs lasts until Monday, then leveling off for Tue.

- Next low with cold front slides through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures cool by 6 to 9 degrees.

- Windy to very windy conditions possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, then windy on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Today through Wed night...High pressure will remain in place for another 30 hours or so, then an upper level trough moving through southern Canada will push the southern end of a cold front through eastern Idaho Tue afternoon and evening. The front will be mainly known for the wind that develops late afternoon and early evening for the Snake River plain, along with blowing dust that gets generated. The cold front could also trigger some isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the ID-UT border. Showers are also expected, with some even starting Tue morning but mostly in the afternoon and evening. But precipitation accumulations should stay below 0.05 of an inch, nearly all of it staying in highlands and mountains. Snowfall appears to be negligible, even at high elevations, as the precipitation falls in the afternoon.

Wind is the biggest concern with this front, plus any resultant blowing dust that could reduce visibility. The most likely zone for a Wind Advisory is the Mud Lake-Terreton to Craters of the Moon/Carey region. Also areas east of Blackfoot and Idaho Falls. Wind speed appears to be down 5 mph to 8 mph on Wed, so no Advisory should be necessary. Strongest wind will be in the eastern Magic Valley and the lower Snake River plain.

Thu through Sun...This period is once again presenting a different scenario. Thu and Fri appear to be mainly dry, as all clusters in this two day period show a split flow with a closed low off the central CA coast shunting moisture into the Desert Southwest. The northern branch of the jetstream is far far north in northern Alberta or even farther north. This puts eastern Idaho in a dry postion in between moisture tracks. The only flow in the ointment would be if the CA tracks a little farther north, then it could bring in some unstable moist air and trigger thunderstorms in the southern half of the forecast area. At best right now, this would be rated about a 15 percent chance of occurrence for showers and 10 percent for thunderstorms.

At this point, clusters diverge in solutions, with a 50-50 split on the next trough staying unified and sliding over the Gem State during the weekend, or for continued split flow with the nearest trough staying off the coast of southern CA. Sun trends with the wetter solution becoming more popular.

Temperatures continued the trend for warmer, with now some Snake River plain highs peaking around 70, up from the upper 50s just two days ago.

Wind during this period appears to be driven by afternoon mixing with breezy to windy conditions in the afternoon and early evening.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 507 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Front that starts approaching tonight does develop cirriform CIGs at KDIJ and KIDA. Do not expect any impact to VSBY today and CIGs elsewhere and otherwise should be unlimited.

Wind is mostly variable in the early morning, but expect stronger southwest to west flow, but nothing getting to 15KT today.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.