textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through next week for more showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day with the most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds. With the potential for heavy downpours Friday a flash flood watch is in effect Friday afternoon and evening for the Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley.

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate based on early day cloud cover

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Pattern remains unchanged with a long period of monsoonal moisture transported north into Idaho with a chance of showers and thunderstorms daily through next week. Tomorrow will be the most widespread day of the storms in the short term with the highest likelihood of both showers, measurable rain and thunderstorms. Although will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening as well. The most likely dry days will be over the weekend Saturday and Sunday with the next period of likely organized convection Tuesday through next Thursday. Very warm temperatures will continue with highs mainly in the 80s mountains and 90s valleys through the period. Some days with extensive cloud cover may turn out a bit cooler. Generally higher humidity than is normally seen in southeast Idaho will also continue through the next 8 days. Winds for the next week are expected to remain mainly light and not impactful other than near any thunderstorm activity and outflow boundaries.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

TSRA continue to be a risk, with KDIJ bordering on TEMPO groups for this evening, while the other 4 airdromes barely qualify for PROB30. The main change is that TSRA threat continues beyond the evening and into the early morning for some, such as KPIH and KIDA. Expecting increased probability for Fri afternoon and evening, but perhaps not as intense in magnitude, with G45KT possible in the afternoon and early evening today/tonight.

High moisture base leaves CIGs unfettered at mid-level or higher, and thus surface VSBY should be unlimited.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A nearly stationary weather pattern has set up with high pressure over the central Rockies and low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast. The southerly flow continue to bring up surges of moist and unstable air into southern Idaho. Today had a lot of instability and low level dryness, but for tomorrow there is not as intense instability but greater moisture and more widespread coverage is expected. On Saturday, the upper level wind becomes more southwest and this should bring in drier and less unstable air, but still with thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and evening will have potential to be wet in the southern half of the Salmon-Challis NF and the northern half of the northern Sawtooth NF, but outside of that should easily be dry thunderstorms.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ411-413- 422-427-475-476.