textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures again today with best chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms being in the central mountains this afternoon.

- Precipitation and thunderstorm chances and coverage increase as we head further into the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures by Monday and remaining seasonable.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Southwest flow aloft is bringing in some warmer temperatures for this afternoon (even with the cloud cover) and some more Pacific moisture for the area. This is being funneled into our area via troughing over the West and a low that is making its way into the northern California area this weekend. The bulk of what has been on radar this morning and early afternoon appears to be virga or a few sprinkles making it to the ground, but more measurable rain and thunderstorms will arrive this afternoon and evening, especially in parts of the eastern Magic Valley and Central Mountains where CAPE values are ranging from 400-700 J/kg. While most of this will focus on the western half of our CWA, that's not to say the rest of us will be totally dry as there will be about a 20 to 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm in the Eastern Highlands. The chance of any severe weather this afternoon looks low for our area and the SPC has a "Marginal" risk of severe weather generally over Boise's CWA. IF we were to see anything, it would likely be gusty outflow winds in the western half of our CWA. Even outside of storms, it will be breezy to windy today and through the weekend with gusts this afternoon around 30 to 35 mph. Snow levels don't fall to near 8500 ft until early Saturday morning, so precipitation will be all rain today and any snow early Saturday will fall on the highest mountains. Total precipitation looks to be around a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the Central Mountains with this first round.

The low off of the CA coast on Saturday helps push troughing into Eastern Idaho, bringing more organized, widespread moisture to us starting mid to late morning and throughout the afternoon. CAPE values on Saturday afternoon will be widespread 300-600 J/kg across the whole area with 700-500 Mb lapse rates between 7.5-8.0 C/km. So, not the steepest lapse rates, but enough instability for showers and storms to produce some gusty winds with the HREF ensemble max wind gust showing potential for gusts around 55 mph on Saturday. Given the showers, thunderstorms, and cloud cover, highs will be about 10 degrees cooler for Saturday afternoon.

Showers will continue throughout Sunday and Monday as the low works its way eastward, with models slowing our cool down by about a day, instead not falling into the 50s until Monday afternoon and that's where our highs will stay for most of the week. Total precipitation has decreased a bit with most of the Snake River Plain looking at closer to a tenth to a quarter of an inch with our higher elevations still looking at a half to three quarters of an inch. Most snow will remain above pass levels, with only a total of 2-4 inches of snow for Galena Summit and Emigration Summit.

We get a little break late Tuesday into Wednesday before another low drops out of British Columbia on Thursday and brings another cold front and more precipitation our way.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Southerly flow aloft bringing in moisture the next two days. Have TEMPO showers at SUN until 02Z and just the vicinity at the other sites. On Saturday afternoon have prob30 thunderstorms everywhere after 19Z as think the activity will be much more widespread than today. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots sustained and 20 to 25 knot gusts at all the sites after 18Z Saturday as well.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.