textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for the Wapiti Burn Scar and for this afternoon for the Big Rock Burn Scar.

- Unseasonably Cool and Unsettled Through Saturday: Waves of monsoonal moisture in southwesterly flow will keep temperatures well below normal with periodic widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms.

- Drying & Moderating Trend Next Week: A drier pattern takes hold Sunday into early next week. Daytime highs will recover into the lower 80s, though isolated afternoon pop-up storms remain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Strong monsoon moisture remains in place across the area with many locations showing dew points well into the 50s early this morning. A weak shortwave will work through the area this afternoon. This disturbance is not nearly as strong as the system that worked through yesterday, but still enough to allow numerous showers along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop. The models are really keying on the mountains and highlands for development today, but there will probably still be at least some isolated to scattered activity across the Magic Valley into the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Locally heavy rain is a concern with these storms and we have targeted the two burn scars that have the best chances for debris flows with a proven track record...Wapiti and Big Rock. Most but not all of the showers will dissipate with the loss of the daytime heating this evening.

Another round of numerous showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected Saturday as the remnants of the west coast trough lift through our area. Models once again highlighting the central mountains for the best precip chances. Activity looks more scattered elsewhere as the pattern is starting to shift from southwest to west and the circulations helping to drive convection are closer to the mountains than east Idaho. Deep monsoon moisture is still around so given the amount of storms expected Saturday across the central mountains and the heavy rain threat, have continued the flash flood watch for the Wapiti burn scar. Confidence is lower in thunderstorm coverage for Big Rock at this time.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday and Monday, but these should be mainly the heat of the day variety pop up storms. Still plenty of moisture in place so underneath the core of these storms will probably be some heavy rain. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, a trough slides through from the northwest. This may help with chances across the mountains into the Island Park region. Looks like at least some slightly drier air behind the front for late next week.

Temperatures expected to be well below normal once again today because of the cloud cover and showers. Temps gradually warm up into early next week, but may not approach normal until late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1106 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Have prob30 thunderstorms at all sites today through 02Z. Have a tempo 18Z through 20Z at DIJ as an area of storms look to hit them between noon and 1 pm. But the threat remains all afternoon and early evening with any storm producing 30 to 45 knot wind gusts. Some drying overnight with showers hanging around with some vicinity in all the TAFs. Winds not strong outside of thunderstorms mainly under 10 knots. Threat for showers and storms remains Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Best chances for wetting rains are across the central mountains and eastern highlands this afternoon. Good chances for wetting rains will continue across the central mountains into Saturday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES