textproduct: Pocatello
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Gradual warming trend into late in the week.
- Moisture returns with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Satellite imagery continues to show upper low along PacNW coast, slowing digging southeast. Southwest flow aloft remains in place over East Idaho, with warming temperatures for the next several days. Stream of high clouds over Nevada/Utah poised to begin rotating slightly north overnight tonight. A few CAMs and even NBM picking up on weak potential for showers to develop late tonight across the Bear Lake region. Southerly flow aloft deepens Wednesday into Thursday, allowing for better chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon, increasing across the region Thursday. Even the high-res ensembles on track with increase of thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon. Breezy south winds increase as well, which could help push daytime highs warmer for some locations in the Lower Snake Plain. Closed low ejects through Idaho Friday and Friday night. Models are picking up on development of dry slot during the day across the Snake Plain Friday, limiting precipitation chances to the higher elevations. As the low pushes through Friday night, precipitation could wrap back across the region before slowly shifting east with the low late in the day Saturday. Models and ensemble means follow the low with development of a broad trough off the Pacific coast. East Idaho remains generally dry through the remainder of the forecast period, with relatively stable temperatures - daytime highs in the lower to mid 70s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
No major impacts expected through Wednesday afternoon on the aviation side. Have nothing more than scattered to broken high level cloud cover.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Dry weather is likely today with humidities falling into the teens this afternoon. However, winds should be much lighter today and Wednesday. Monsoon moisture will return for Wednesday through Friday resulting in showers and storms across the region. The weather looks to dry out moving into the weekend and early next week with temperatures remaining at or above seasonal norms.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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