textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in place for portions of East Idaho.

- Breezy and cooler Saturday.

- ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected well into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

WV satellite imagery shows shortwave feature ejecting northeast out of northern California across East Idaho by Saturday. Very warm temperatures continue today, with afternoon and evening build ups that could produce a few virga showers with a sprinkle or two and gusty outflows around 35 mph. Most of the convective activity should stay to the west today, but shower activity begins to increase during the overnight and would not be surprised to see a few lightning strikes approaching sunrise or just after. High-res models still appear to favor a line of weak convection developing north-south and pushing northeast through the Snake Plain early in the day, and HRRR shows gusty outflows 35-40 mph with this feature. As PW continues to increase through the day, the chance for thunderstorms with wetting rains increases, particularly across the northern higher elevation zones. In addition, gusty winds remain a threat, and could approach severe limits moving into the late afternoon. Precipitation amounts still range from 0.10-0.25" across the northern tier higher elevation zones, decreasing to much lower amounts below 0.10" through the Snake Plain and south. That said, the potential for brief heavy rain remains for the afternoon and evening. Wind speeds look to be sufficient to support the headline, but recent guidance indicates more a westerly cross-reservoir direction to the wind at the surface, reducing the risk of dangerous chop. Thus will hold off for now. Shortwave continues to shift east Saturday night into early Sunday. There is some potential for continued convection overnight, especially across the northeast corner of the region. East Idaho stays under the influence of the upper trough through Monday, but much drier conditions are anticipated. We do see an upper ridge rebuilding through the middle of the week. We could see moisture working around the ridge as early as Wednesday or Thursday, but models seem content to keep all of East Idaho dry for now. Otherwise expect a return to a warming trend for Tuesday through the rest of the week with temperatures bumping into the lower 90s for some areas by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Main impact today will be upper level system working through Idaho and expect convective activity and have vicinity showers and thunderstorms at all sites through today and this evening. Expect steadier rain overnight at DIJ. Winds will pick up in the afternoon with 10 to 20 knots sustained with gusts 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, 422, 427, 475, and 475 from 6 AM to 9 PM today for scattered thunderstorm activity.

An upper level wave is pushing through Idaho today and is expected to cause scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for most of southeast Idaho. Will start out very dry but There is at least a 50 percent chance of wetting rain through tonight mainly in zones 411, 413, 422, 475 and 476. But a lot of storms will start out dry. there is a potential for 35 to 50 mph outflow wind gusts this afternoon and evening as well. It will be much cooler today with higher minimum humidity than yesterday. It will begin to warm up again Sunday and dry out once again. Some isolated thunderstorms will linger mainly in zone 411 and eastern zone 410 as well as 413. Gusty winds up to 30 mph possible in zones 410 and 425. Generally a warm and dry week expected Monday through Friday with the next potential for storms next weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413-422-427-475-476.