textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front tonight will bring gusty winds and a sharp drop in temperatures.

- Rain transitions to snow by Thursday morning for most, creating a messy commute with a 25-50% chance of 1" of snow in the Snake Plain.

- Mountain passes east of I-15 should see 5-10" of snow through Thursday night, and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Satellite imagery depicts a closed low off the PacNW coast shifting inland, with deep southerly flow across East Idaho. Gusty winds have already developed today especially portions of southern highlands spilling into the snake plain. The southerly flow helping to boost temperatures ahead of the precipitation, currently over eastern oregon early this afternoon per regional radar imagery. Progression of the system still looks very similar to previous forecast. Cold front shifts east through the evening, shifting gusty south winds to the west and increasing slightly through the overnight hours and into Thursday. Will maintain the Wind Advisory as currently highlighted, and have nudged forecast winds above NBM deterministic ranges toward the 75th and 90th percentiles, in line with current observations and anticipated increase.

A rapid drop in temperatures is expected overnight, bringing snow levels to valley floors and making the Thursday AM commute messy for some. HREF projections for accumulations through Thursday afternoon vary significantly, but the probability of more than 1" of snow in the interstate corridors of the Snake Plain is generally 25-50%, increasing to 40-65% north and east of Idaho Falls. Believe ground temperatures are likely warm enough to limit significant accumulations for most of the commuting region. Higher elevations especially across the east and south see the higher accumulations as light snow continues into Thursday night and possibly Friday as the upper low transitions east of the region. Will also maintain the Winter Weather Advisories already in effect for these areas, with generally 5-10" accumulation at pass level, slightly higher for the Bear River Range/Emigration Pass and elevations above pass level.

Upper ridge tilts over the region for Saturday. Unsettled conditions return for Sunday and beyond as flow aloft flattens with series of fast moving shortwaves for the remainder of the forecast period. This pattern will be conducive for showery conditions mainly over higher elevations. Mild temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected for most days next work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1036 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Rain and snow arrives this afternoon across the central mountains and spreads across the rest of the region tonight. Gusty southerly winds of 15-30kts (including gusts) will switch to southwest and eventually west across eastern Idaho behind the front this evening and tonight. Behind the front overnight and tomorrow morning, things become more showery for BYI and SUN. For PIH, IDA, and DIJ, we will likely see rain changing to snow and sticking around for several hours. We have MVFR/IFR conditions for these TAF sites, but confidence on if we much lower visibility and ceilings is pretty low at the moment. Upslope may enhance that to some extent at IDA, while some downslope may cut into that chance at PIH and especially at DIJ. If precipitation intensity wins out, look for IFR/LIFR conditions at times.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Thursday for IDZ055-056. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM MST Friday for IDZ060. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Thursday for IDZ064. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM MST Thursday for IDZ066.