textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain expected through tomorrow morning with additional amounts of 0.75-1.5" and locally higher outside of the central mountains

- Flooding is still a possibility across most of eastern Idaho especially in terrain areas and burn scars

- High mountain snow possible across the central mountains and along the Montana border

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

We are expecting more waves of precipitation, especially outside of the central mountains...with the heaviest through tomorrow morning. The "drier" spots still appear to be across the Lava Beds north through the Wood River Valley and Stanley Basin, as well as north toward Challis. Additional amounts of 0.30-0.60" are expected through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, we are still looking at widespread 0.75-1.5" of precipitation, with some spots pushing 2" along and east of I-15. The 90th percentile (high end) of the range in the Blend of Models has the potential for 1.25-2.25", and the absolute highest is still going with another 1.5-3.0", pushing 3.5"+ along and east of I-15 in a few spots. We are also still looking at some snow across the central mountains and along the Montana border. Other than some light snow in the Stanley and Copper Basins, snow accumulation will be limited to above 7500-8000ft. We might even see up to 6" across highest peaks and ranges (above 9500-10000ft). The Blend is trying to sneak some light snow at highest elevations of the South Hills and Albion Mountains. That seems to be a function of a pocket of colder air and heavier precipitation in that particular area. IF we do see accumulations there, it will be short-lived tonight and early Monday morning. Showers will continue Tuesday into Wednesday, with precipitation gradually ending northwest to southeast...as the low slows to almost a crawl as it swings across Utah into Colorado and Wyoming.

A blocking pattern with high pressure over Idaho is expected to build, as a large area of low pressure develops east of the Rockies. Most of the models (ensembles and AI version as well) develop a cutoff low across the Desert Southwest/Baja next week as part of the blocking pattern. The ECMWF wants to actually to stop the low over Colorado, and show it retrograding west back across Utah and Nevada. That seems to be an odd outlier for sure. Highs will gradually warm back into the 60s for valley locations under the ridge.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1019 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

There are still some weak rain showers that will move over IDA and DIJ in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, expect mostly VCSH for all sites overnight until the next strong wave of moisture moves into our area from the south. Models have pushed this wave of moisture off until 11 to 12z for PIH, BYI, and DIJ and around 14Z for IDA. SUN looks to be on the western edge of the precipitation with precipitation more likely in the afternoon now. BYI has the precipitation for now early in the morning but is barely in the precipitation band now. Precipitation could hold off until the afternoon for BYI. CIGS will likely become MVFR in the morning with the wave of moisture and continue all day Sunday with the potential for VIS to drop that low as well. Brief IFR conditions are possible with heavier showers on station as well, especially for DIJ, IDA, and PIH. DIJ looks to have heavier showers late in the morning and then again in the early evening. PIH and IDA look to have heavier showers in the mid to late afternoon likely continuing into the early evening. Have put in PROB30 groups for most likely times for heavier showers at each TAF location. Thunderstorms are not that likely, less than 5%. So have left out any mention of thunderstorms for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Rain and high mountain snow will become more widespread through Monday morning. We will see some embedded thunderstorms and heavier bands of rain to enhance some of the higher precipitation totals. The "drier" spots still remain across the Lava Beds in the Magic Valley, north across Zone 422, and then back to the north and east through western Lemhi County. Additional amounts there are in the 0.30-0.60" range through tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, additional amounts of 0.75-1.5" are in the official forecast with some spots along/east of I-15 trying to push 2.0". The 90th percentile (higher end) of the range in the Blend of Models has the potential for 1.25-2.25", and the absolute highest is still going with another 1.5-3.0", pushing 3.5"+ along and east of I-15 in a few spots. Snow is still expected across the central mountains and along the Montana border. While we might see some brief and light accumulation across the Stanley Basin, most accumulations will be above 7500-8000ft and highest above 9500-10000ft. A pocket of colder air around the South Hills and Albion Mountains MAY help produce a period of light accumulation across the highest peaks tonight and early tomorrow morning. The closed low, as it drops into Utah, will keep showers going Tuesday and Wednesday, with a gradual clearing trend from northwest to southeast. High pressure rebuilds over Idaho later next week, but only expect a gradual warming trend back into the 60s for valley locations.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for IDZ051>067-073-075.