textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms through Thursday afternoon as low pressure passes to our north

- Gusty winds through tomorrow afternoon, strongest tonight and Thursday morning

- Increasing potential for showers and storms next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An area of low pressure rushes through in the next 24 hours. The bulk of this storm will pass north of us, but will bring a few showers and storms mainly across the central mountains and along the Montana border. We did include a 10-15% chance elsewhere as it does look like virga and sprinkles are possible, and wanting to something to reflect even something this minimal due to impacts on the fire side of the forecast. There is still a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph with any development through this evening. At the moment, any potential for thunderstorms is 10-15% and mainly north of Challis and the Pahsimeroi through evening, and along the Montana border tomorrow. We will see shower potential continuing overnight across portions of the central mountains, then shifting into the eastern highlands (especially along the Montana border) through tomorrow afternoon. Outside of any type of showers or virga, there will be some gusty winds. The strongest gusts (25-35 mph) are forecast across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and surrounding terrain. We will issue a LAKE WIND ADVISORY for American Falls Reservoir starting mid morning tomorrow and through the afternoon. Starting Friday and through the weekend, it will be breezy at times across portions of central and eastern Idaho. There is an initial low that swings inland over the weekend, and appears to look similar to the low coming through now. This will help kick start the wind out ahead of it and as it passes. Any potential issues with showers or storms again looks confined to northern areas Saturday night and Sunday, but we wouldn't be surprised to see issues with virga and gusty winds outside of those locations. After that, a closed low moves inland and takes a bit for it to clear the western states based on current forecasts and trends. We will be dealing with one or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms until that storm passes into the Plains. This will continue to keep breezy conditions in the forecast. Looking at temperatures, we should be in the 70s and 80s for highs except for Thursday and Sunday, where highs drop back into the 70s areawide for valley locations. We might even see a few 90s creep into the picture especially Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions continue across East Idaho today. Mid level convective development is expected this afternoon and early evening associated with shortwave passing through the region. There is a low confidence potential for a very weak shower at SUN, BYI, and PIH. Have maintained VCSH at the first two, and added for PIH. Most likely scenario is going to be VIRGA and gusty winds. Confidence is even lower at IDA and DIJ so will maintain dry forecast. Have started to push winds up for mid to late morning Thursday, with gusts moving into 20-25kt territory. Gusts should increase to 25-30kts for the afternoon, with westerly cross winds expected for SUN.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A shortwave trough is moving through Eastern Idaho late today into tomorrow and will bring nearly RED FLAG WARNING conditions to much of the area, especially in south-central Idaho today and tomorrow. Today, the low RHs are there (10-15 percent) along with about a 10 percent chance of a dry thunderstorm, and wind gusts ranging from 20- 25 mph and nearing 35 mph on ridgetops. Wind gusts will be a bit stronger on Thursday, but isolated thunderstorm chances will be lower and afternoon min RHs will increase ever so slightly. Given the coordination done on the day shift yesterday, have not issued any RED FLAG WARNINGS at this point, but know we are VERY close to those conditions today, especially around the Summit Creek Fire area. We will be hot, dry, and windy again on Friday and Saturday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES