textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and snow more spotty today in the Snake River plain and eastern/southeast highlands.

- Dense Fog Advisory for the Snake River plain and Arco Desert until noon.

- Next winter storm arrives Saturday or Saturday night in the central Idaho mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Today through Sat night...The storm has cleared the central Idaho mountains, but even in the low elevations and highlands along the ID-WY border the precipitation rates are way down with only a few showers possible. Precipitation will disappear for this afternoon and tonight, and also for Fri and Fri night. On Sat, the next trough should start developing precipitation in the central Idaho mountains that will continue and spread on Sat night.

Both this morning, and likely tonight and Fri morning, dense fog has developed in the three zones that make up the Snake River plain. It may also at times include the eastern Magic Valley, but this morning it has not become dense there...yet. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the three zones that make up the Snake River plain. Since it is mainly radiation-based, expect that the dense fog should evaporate by noon.

Temperatures appear to have bottomed out on Wednesday, and a warming should start today to the high--if the fog and stratus dissipate before afternoon. The same is true for Fri highs. After a couple of days, fog should not be an issue. Sat temperatures in the low elevations in the southwest corner of the forecast area will approach 50 deg F. For lows during this period, the clearer skies on Fri night will make it the coldest point, but even then the temperatures are 5 to 10 deg F above normal for the time of year. The warmer highs on Sat will lead to a warming trend in the low for Sat night, combined with some developing cloud cover.

Wind should remain light, especially the next two days. Then, the approaching storm may increase wind to the 10 to 15 mph range on Sat.

Sun through Wed...The expected weekend upper level trough appears to be slowing in its approach. Even on Sun the clusters all keep the splitting trough to the west of the Gem State. The probability of precipitation has decreased again, at least for this day. Mon and Tue appear to have the best chance for precipitation.

Temperatures during this time are tricky. Currently, the temperatures for these two days are expected to be even warmer than the weekend, mainly due to an extended south to southwest airflow during the time. However, if clouds and precipitation develop, those temperatures could be way too warm. Most solutions keep the trough axis still west of the forecast area. There is much uncertainty with what the closed low that develops off the southern portion of the split. So Wed is also very uncertain.

Wind for this period is trending stronger with Tue afternoon the strongest period, just below Wind Advisory criteria.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 416 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dense fog meandering around the Snake River plain, making KIDA and KPIH forecasts low-confidence, save for plenty of IFR conditions for both CIG but primarily VSBY, with high confidence of VSBY going below 1/2SM FG. KBYI is farther west, closer to the edge of the stratus deck, so IFR is a possibility, but conditions this morning are expected to be more marginal VFR. Depending on wind directions at KSUN, they may stay out of the problematic CIG and VSBY, staying marginal VFR, but would not be surprised to see IFR for CIGs push in from the south if the southerly flow can get going in the Wood River Valley.

As one would normally expect in a stratus/FG situation, little wind available.

IFR conditions including FG and low clouds look very likely to return to KPIH, with KIDA also possible, but not as likely. Marginal VFR likely to return to the other three airdromes as well.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon MST today for IDZ052>054.