textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier air in place will not prevent dry thunderstorms today and Monday

- Monsoon moisture increases starting Monday evening

- Warmer temperatures through Monday will increase heat-related issues across the Magic Valley and South Hills

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Drier air, at least at the surface, continues to lock in through tomorrow. HOWEVER, there is still enough mid level moisture along with hotter temperatures to kick off a few dry storms both days. For today, we will see things developing from the Wood River Valley through Gilmore Summit and Lone Pine, and along the border through Island Park. A few storms are also expected across higher elevations south of the Snake Plain. Tomorrow, we are forecasting isolated dry storms in similar locations, although we did expand that chance north from Soda Springs north toward Driggs. Gusts over 35 mph are most likely with storms farther north where the chance tops out at 70%. Down south, it is on 10-30%. Stronger gusts tomorrow are lower, but NOT ZERO, indicating even if we don't get thunderstorms, virga is certainly possible. Warmer temperatures continue to be an issue, with highs today in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with a few spots pushing 95-100. On Monday, we will be a few degrees warmer, with valley highs 90-100 or topping just above 100. We are hitting advisory/borderline warning thresholds, due to accumulating heat impacts, across the Magic Valley and South Hills/Albion Mountains. We did issue a HEAT ADVISORY for tomorrow. We are also potentially hitting thresholds for the Arco Desert, but for now left that area.

Starting Monday and through the rest of the week, the ridge resets back to the northwest, pulling in deeper and more persistent monsoon moisture. Expect more daily shower and thunderstorm chances across the board, along with a general "cooling" trends back through 90s and into the 80s. By the end of next weekend, we may be seeing a similar scenario we are expecting in the next 24-36 hours, as a system to our north breaks down the ridge and attempts to bring drier air in the state.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 442 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Drier conditions are expected today, but there still will be a few thunderstorms over higher elevations. At the moment, it doesn't look like any TAF site will be directly impacted. We might see a couple of storms develop around SUN and along the bench areas at BYI, PIH, and IDA. The chance is pretty low, and not seeing enough potential or confidence to include VCSH/VCTS or PROB30 at the moment. Storms today still have the potential for gusts over 30kts, but a lower chance for rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Drier surface will remain in place through Monday, HOWEVER, we are still seeing enough moisture around for isolated dry storms later today and again Monday afternoon and evening. Expect development today across the central mountains extending from around the Wood River Valley (422) through Gilmore Summit (476). That batch of storms eventually extends along the Montana border in Zone 411. The other area we are watching is Zone 413 and 427 south of the Snake Plain. There is potential for strong outflow winds over 35 mph, especially farther north where the chance is up to 70%. Down south, the potential only tops out around 30%. Outside of storms, gusts up to 25 mph in some spots is forecasts. The same areas are forecast to see isolated dry storms, although we might see a few more storms developing north from Soda Springs to Driggs. The chance for stronger outflow winds is lower, but still NOT ZERO. The other concern may be heat-related issues for crews as more valley locations are seeing highs today in the mid to upper 90s, and even higher with some locations top out just above 100 tomorrow.

Monsoon moisture increases again starting tomorrow evening and continues through the rest of the week. This will basically be a repeat of this past week where we see daily shower and thunderstorm chances, and afternoon temperatures highly dependent on the amount of cloud cover on any given day.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ051-055>057.