textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Some storms may produce strong gusty outflows.

- Mainly dry Thursday.

- Unsettled weather returns for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Satellite imagery shows deep closed low centered near Tahoe/Reno today. Enough moisture remains in place today for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms is in place, with potential for localized wind gusts to exceed 60 mph. The threat is greatest throughout the Snake Plain and Central Mountains this afternoon and early evening, but cannot rule out stronger storms throughout East Idaho. Drier air mass is in place for Thursday so little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. Recent high-res updates place isolated activity across the northeast corner of the forecast area Thursday afternoon, but only briefly, and greater model consensus keeps the forecast dry at this time. Friday into the weekend begins to trend significantly wetter as the upper low opens and ejects northeast across East Idaho. Rain becomes more widespread Friday night through Sunday, with Saturday the wettest period. Amounts have increased slightly from previous forecast, ranging from just under 0.10 across portions of the Eastern Magic Valley to potentially over 0.50" for higher elevations from the Central Mountains along the Divide to the Wyoming border. The cloud cover and precipitation do induce a cooler airmass, dropping daytime highs some 15-20 degrees to the lower/mid 60s for most of the lower elevations Saturday. Upper trough continues to eject north into Canada through Sunday, and additional precipitation may be possible Sunday and Monday as the trough impacts shift slowly away.

For Tuesday and beyond, there is quite a bit of ensemble divergence, with clusters evenly split between keeping weak trough across Idaho and developing a weak warm ridge. Ensemble means trend dry, but high-end estimates still produce very weak liquid precipitation amounts over higher elevations. Current forecast favor dry conditions with lower elevation daytime highs trending back toward the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 502 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

TSRA and most showers have passed to the northwest of all airdromes, so whatever CIGs there are should disappear by 28/03Z tonight, then it stays SKC to SCT at mid-levels. SKC should rule everywhere shortly after midnight. VSBY should remain unaffected. Not expecting a return of TSRA/SHRA for Thu.

This leaves the wind. The odd upper level southeast flow is making for a weird direction at a lot of locations, with a few times wind taking a more traditional direction. This is even true for KSUN, the most tradition-bound when it comes to wind direction. By Thu mid-day, breezy to windy conditions should return with a southerly to southwesterly airflow more likely. G25KT to G30KT expected by that time on Thu.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Expect another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms will once again be a mix of wet and dry storms with erratic, gusty winds possible near storms. Thursday looks to be the driest day of the week, although a stray thunderstorm is still possible. Humidity levels on Thursday will be in the teens and wind gusts will range from 20 to 30 mph.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.