textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for a few showers and thunderstorms over the Memorial Day Weekend

- Much warmer temperatures return through Monday

- Low pressure settles in next week for cooler temperatures with more showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Low pressure continues to push out into the Plains, leaving northwest flow over the state today. The pattern shifts to westerly and eventually southwesterly over Idaho through the holiday weekend. This allows for temperatures to warm considerably, with highs in the mid 70s-mid 80s by Sunday and Memorial Day. The pattern will be breezy each afternoon and evening, but for now there is nothing that signals any type of wind-related headlines. The concern is the potential each day for light showers and a few thunderstorms. There will be pockets of mid and high level moisture sweeping across the state. Unfortunately, with how things may time out each day, we are looking isolated light showers/sprinkles/virga across the central mountains and along the Montana border this afternoon and tonight. The chance of thunderstorms is under 10%, so it is not out of the question to possibly see a couple of thunderstorms pop up today. We see another pocket of moisture arrive later tomorrow afternoon. For the moment, we are keeping any potential for showers/sprinkles to less than 15%. That pocket of moisture slowly works through the area on Sunday. All of the models hint that we should a little higher chance of light showers and storms south of the Snake River. Mid level moisture remains in place for Memorial Day ahead of the next incoming storm. Any potential for showers and storms will mostly likely lie across the central mountains, with a few storms possible farther east. Circling back, this morning and tomorrow morning should be last mornings we see a better potential for frost or a light freeze across the Snake Plain. The FROST ADVISORY remains in place through 9AM. We may NOT need another advisory for tonight, but it will be close. Most locations will remain at or above 36 degrees, although few more remote spots may dip to between 32 and 36.

Beyond that, the models are generally consistent on low pressure settling in across the West. This should help cool temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s for highs. With the pattern slow to shift east, we have a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms daily for Tuesday and beyond. The lower end high temperature forecasts are even colder than the official Blend of Models forecast, and have highs in the 50s through midweek. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Expect VFR conditions in the next 24 hours. There will be some mid and high level clouds, with some potential for sprinkles/virga and a very low chance of a thunderstorm. IF anything develops it COULD impact SUN and DIJ. At the moment, confidence is very low that this would occur and is not mentioned in the latest round of TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Memorial Day Weekend will definitely be warmer with highs returning to the 70s and 80s through Monday. There is some concern, however, for a few light showers (more likely sprinkles and virga) and storms each day. For today, that potential lies across most of the central mountains and across Zone 411 along the Montana border. For Saturday, the potential is slightly lower, but still there mainly across Zones 413 and 427. That potential increases on Sunday in similar areas, with some bleedover into portions of the Magic Valley (425) and Snake Plain (south end of 410). While elsewhere the potential is much lower, it is still around 10% in several areas. The main concern will be lack of wetting rain and gusty winds. For Monday, the focus for any showers and storms shifts to the central mountains for the most part. Precipitation amounts are still light. For Tuesday and beyond, low pressure settles across the area for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Even if we end up with lower precipitation amounts, temperatures drop back into the 60s to mid 70s.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ052>054.