textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong Winds Today: Winds will flirt with Wind Advisory and Lake Wind Advisory criteria this afternoon. While an advisory has not been issued due to the marginal and short-duration nature of the winds, a short-fused issuance remains possible if winds overperform.

- Red Flag Warning & Mountain Rain: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for Fire Zone 422 due to thunderstorm coverage. Meanwhile, the Central Mountains especially around the Sawtooths will see multiple rounds of precipitation over the next 48 hours. The rest of eastern Idaho will remain largely dry through Friday.

- Cool Today, Warming into Saturday: Daytime highs will be noticeably cooler today, holding in the 60s and 70s. A gradual warming trend will add 1 to 3 degrees to daily highs each day from Thursday into the weekend.

- Unsettled & Cool Labor Day: Confidence is increasing for a very unsettled Labor Day weekend as a Pacific low moves eastward. Expect high probabilities for precipitation and daytime high temperatures plummeting 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The region remains under the influence of a broad upper-level trough in place across the Pacific Northwest. Embedded waves of energy will continue to rotate through this upper-level pattern, bringing waves of cloud cover and precipitation to parts of eastern Idaho over the coming days. Early morning satellite imagery shows the next wave of clouds and moisture positioned across eastern Oregon, which will progress toward Idaho throughout the morning. High-resolution convective-allowing models (CAMs) show this feature producing multiple rounds of precipitation across the Central Mountains especially around the Sawtooths over the course of the next 48 hours, albeit with occasional breaks. Fire Zone 422 remains under a Red Flag Warning today due to anticipated thunderstorm coverage.

Outside of the Central Mountains, the rest of eastern Idaho looks dry through Friday, making wind the primary operational hazard. Winds will push Wind Advisory and Lake Wind thresholds today. The current wind forecast has been nudged upward closer to the NBM 90th percentile guidance, placing expected gusts right on the cusp of advisory criteria. Given the short duration and marginal nature of the setup, we have opted to hold off on a formal advisory for now, though a short-fused issuance may be needed this afternoon if winds overperform. Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler across the region, with daytime highs limited to the 60s and 70s.

Winds will remain breezy on Thursday and Friday, but latest guidance suggests speeds will be a touch lower than what we experience today. A slight warming trend will take hold during this period, with maximum temperatures increasing by 2 to 4 degrees each day from Wednesday through the weekend.

As we move into the latter half of the Labor Day holiday weekend, global models show the aforementioned Pacific upper low slowly starting to make eastward progress toward Idaho. This will allow for increased atmospheric lift and deep moisture to push into the area on Sunday, and especially on Monday. Precipitation chances are trending upward and look increasingly likely for the holiday. While there is still a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track of the low, confidence is increasing for a potentially unsettled Labor Day across the forecast area. Extensive cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and lower 500 mb heights should result in well-below-normal high temperatures on Labor Day and through the first part of next week, dropping 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 557 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Models show potential for some showers and storms approaching SUN over the next few hours. Otherwise, rest of the TAF sites are expected to remain dry. Breezy conditions will be in place until late evening with gusts of 25 to 30 kts likely at east Idaho terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The primary fire weather concerns today are a Red Flag Warning in Zone 422 due to scattered thunderstorms, alongside near- advisory level winds across the broader lower elevations. Fortunately, noticeably cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s will help keep relative humidity values from reaching critical thresholds across the wind-prone corridors. Looking ahead, a gradual warming trend is expected into Saturday before a strong, cold Pacific storm system brings widespread wetting rain and a 10-to-15 degree cooldown for Labor Day and early next week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ422.