textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- After a brief relative cooldown Monday and Tuesday, the dry and warming trend returns through the end of the week.

- Inversions may break provided there is sufficient mixing Monday and Tuesday, but stagnant conditions will return for the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows mid/high level clouds streaking over the eastern half of the area with clearing across the western part of the state. As we move into the daylight hours, clouds should be pretty limited with high pressure again building over the region. This will keep things dry today with temperatures continuing to run above normal for early February by around 7-10 degrees. As we move into Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge continues to amplify over the area allowing temps to warm by a few more degrees compared to today. The only change of note will be that a shortwave moving across Montana and Wyoming will graze the region which COULD produce an isolated shower around the Island Park area and maybe into the Teton Valley. Hi-res CAMs aren't overly impressed with the chance for this but they at least show a signal so it's at least worth a mention. Otherwise, things will continue to remain quiet across eastern Idaho with above normal temps expected to linger into the extended.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 144 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Second shortwave drops through northwest flow Monday night into Tuesday, grazing the northeast portions of the forecast area. Much like the Monday system, this one also contains little to no moisture for most of the region. Similarly, the probability of producing any snow accumulations more than a dusting are around or less than 10%, and the forecast remains dry. For the remainder of the work week, the ridge rebounds over the region, returning East Idaho to a warming trend and potential stagnant air mass. There is a hint of a potential change arriving by late in the weekend. Ensemble and clusters hint at a pattern change by late weekend as a deep Pacific trough moves inland and the upper ridge shifts east. Current ensemble clusters show significant spread regarding the details of this transition, particularly given the amplified blocking pattern over the Western U.S. The NBM introduces light precipitation late Sunday at the end of the forecast period. Are we confident on this? Not at all. Highly amplified blocking patterns can be hard to break down, and models can be too aggressive in doing so especially this far out in time. But it will be worth keeping on eye on this week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 432 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across eastern Idaho terminals through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds this morning will turn S/SW by late morning and into the afternoon in the 7-10 kt range outside of KSUN. After some brief clearing later today, clouds will likely return later this afternoon into tonight but CIGs will remain well above any significant operational thresholds.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Stagnation Advisory until noon MST today for IDZ054-059.