textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms continues through Friday

- Gradual warming and drying trend through the Fourth of July weekend

- Chance for appreciable/measurable rainfall diminished throughout the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

We continue with low pressure somewhat dominating the weather pattern today and through the next few days. Each day we are expecting one or more weak ripples within this pattern to impact central and eastern Idaho. Through this evening, one of these ripples will kick off showers and thunderstorms. More widespread coverage will be over the central mountains once again and into the eastern highlands. More isolated development is forecast across the South Hills/Albion Mountains. It does appear some of this either moves off the mountains into portions of the Snake Plain, or the higher resolution models are mimicking development along any potential outflow boundaries. Both are plausible. Anything over the central mountains have the potential for locally heavier precipitation due to all of the moisture around from the past few days. The chance is much lower elsewhere, but certainly not zero at this point. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph mainly across southern areas into the Magic Valley and Snake Plain. For tonight and tomorrow morning, we are expecting this round to dwindle, with 10-15% chance of a light showers or virga as mid level moisture sneaks in from the southwest. From mid-morning onward, showers and thunderstorms will kick off once again. There will be two main areas for scattered showers and storms: across the central mountains and across the highlands/bench areas from Oakley to Driggs. Overall rainfall potential drops off tomorrow, with most showers or storms producing under 0.10". With the overall airmass a bit drier (something we have to watch given all of rain and snow many of us saw), the HREF and REFS thunderstorm potential for over 35 mph is 50-90% and highest gusts topping out closer to 55 mph. If the air ends up more humid that the models believe should be there, we tend to see stronger gusts in this environment being much lower. Either way, we are expecting a better chance of seeing some outflow wind potential tomorrow. One thing we didn't really account for that well this morning was areas of fog and low stratus. We should see LESS tonight overall, but the most likely areas for redevelopment will be across portions of the central mountains...especially the Stanley and Copper Basins. 0

We basically see the pattern repeating itself through Friday. Each day, the amount of moisture diminishes a bit more. For Thursday, any chance of showers and storms will be across mainly the eastern and southeast highlands...as well as the South Hills/Albion Mountains and the northern half of the Snake Plain. On Friday, the chance will be mainly over the central mountains and eastern highlands. The Fourth of July weekend looks dry, with highs pushing the 80s and into the 90s by Sunday. It will be a bit breezy here and there, but no major or widespread wind events coming over the weekend. The Four Corners high becomes established early next week. That puts us back into southwest flow and potentially into a monsoon-type pattern. For now, the models seem a bit fickle on any organized bigger surge of moisture working across Idaho. We will need to watch to see how that unfolds, but even if we see some moisture in here...initially expect much warmer conditions with a potential for virga/light showers and dry thunderstorms returning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Weak impulses moving through a remnant broader upper trough over the region will combine with adequate moisture to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out at any of the terminals, the better potential will exist at KSUN and KDIJ. Have maintained a PROB30 thunderstorm mention at these terminals from roughly 19Z-01Z, with VCSH mentioned at other terminals. Even with a passing shower or storm, VSBYs and CIGs are likely to remain VFR with only a low probability for brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise winds will remain much lighter today compared to recent days while VFR conditions persist. Will see periods of mid-level CIGs but well within VFR range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

We continue with some potential for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Another round of showers and storms will persist into this evening, with much better chances and appreciable rainfall across the central mountains and Zone 411. We do expect isolated showers and storms (with much lower wetting rain potential) across higher elevations along the Utah border. With storms down south, there is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph through this evening. There is some indication storms are able to either move into Zone 425 and into the Pocatello area, or outflow and potential isolated storms along outflow boundaries to occur this evening. We will likely see some virga or light sprinkles overnight over most the area as mid level moisture remains across central and eastern Idaho. By mid-morning Wednesday into the evening hours, another round of more widespread showers and storms will commence. There are two areas of focus and where coverage reaches scattered, across the central mountains (especially 475/476), and along the highlands and bench areas from around Oakley to Driggs(411/413/427). We are expecting at least isolated showers and storms to make it across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. The airmass SHOULD be drying out a bit, but the models may also be a bit bullish on that considering all of the moisture that fell. Probability forecasts for gust potential over 35 mph is 50-90% for a good chunk of the area. IF the models are spot-on with how much we dry out, that makes sense. However, if the opposite happens, that potential is much lower. That said, some decent downpours are still possible. Thursday's potential for showers and storms is lower and mainly over 410, 411, 413 and 427. Coverage should be mostly isolated with a lower potential of wetting and even measurable rainfall. Friday's possibilities look a bit higher and across the central mountains and Zone 411.

For the Fourth of July weekend, we do stay dry with humidities dropping off...especially outside of the central mountains. Winds do pick up, but not at any speeds noteworthy of enhanced potential for near-critical fire weather conditions. Next week, the Four Corners High is re-established putting us into typical southwest flow/monsoon pattern. We will need to monitor how much moisture is tapped to see how much thunderstorm potential returns. That said, at least initially...any thunderstorms around Monday or Tuesday look definitely dry at this point.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.