textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A prolonged period of windy conditions is expected most of the week.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the Upper Snake Plain on Monday, with a 60-75% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph in some areas.

- Cool temperatures Tuesday behind the cold front, but mild temperatures return for later in the week as gusty winds and high elevation showers persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Satellite imagery shows flow aloft already flattening across the region ahead of shortwave moving through the PacNW. Stratus shield that was in place earlier this morning is rapidly retreating north on the nose of gusty southerly winds in place over much of East Idaho. Warm temperatures in place especially across the southern portions of the Snake Plain in the I-86 corridor where downslope winds are helping to max warming potential.

Little has changed with forecast expectations for the week with fast zonal flow and periods of strong winds throughout the week. Isolated mountain showers can be expected through Tuesday, but total liquid precipitation amounts remain light so minimal impacts are forecast. The story remains the wind as the impact of concern. 700MB winds ranging 45-55kts per NAM across the region should be sufficient to support strong winds gusts in region of enhanced surface gradient Monday. Wind Advisory remains in place for Monday for a significant portion of the Snake River Plain. NBM still supportive of a 65-75% chance for max gusts Monday to exceed 55 mph. This would put portions of the Arco Desert and the Upper Snake Plain zones close to High Wind criteria. It would not be a stretch to see a few locations meet or exceed that, but do not believe it will be widespread so will continue to hold off for now. Front sags through the region Monday night, cooling temperatures into Tuesday. Winds remain strong Tuesday behind the frontal system in continued zonal flow aloft. Current probabilistic data supports the stronger winds shifting to the Eastern Magic Valley and Lower Snake Plain region for Tuesday, with max sustained speeds 30-35 mph. Additional Wind Advisories may be needed.

Looking ahead to Wednesday and beyond, the flow aloft remains zonal and strong, with continued strong winds through the week. Wednesday appears to be the weakest winds, but still 15-25 mph sustained as of today's guidance. Moisture flow aloft appears to increase late in the week, but the zonal flow will keep the showers confined to higher elevations. If the moisture can increase, it should lead to light accumulations each period over higher elevations across the north (from the Sawtooths east to the Island Park region). Still, winds remain the greatest concern. Thursday through Saturday look quite windy once again, with guidance already strongly suggestive of Wind Advisory or stronger conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1001 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Brisk conditions will continue through the night with occasional gusts to 20kts likely at PIH/IDA. Winds at SUN are downvalley, but we are seeing indications in many of the models that they could turn upvalley around 12z. This would be very unusual, but will go with a variable forecast given the uncertainty. Looks like the winds take over by afternoon with a crosswind likely at SUN Monday afternoon. Strong gusts likely at PIH and IDA tomorrow afternoon.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ052>054-065.