textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow into Sunday with virga or light rain possible

- Gusty winds expected throughout the weekend, strongest on Sunday with potential wind-related headlines

- Wetter next week as low pressure drifts across the area with BELOW AVERAGE temperatures starting Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A fairly quiet evening and Saturday morning on tap for central and eastern Idaho, ahead of the next low crossing the state. By We may see some virga develop late morning as some mid level moisture begins to increase. By afternoon, the latest thunder probabilities from the Blend of Models, REFS, and HREF indicate the potential for isolated thunderstorms that will linger into through around midnight. We included this in the forecast with the expectation of virga/sprinkles and some gusty winds on top of the expected overall wind. There is a 10-40% chance of gusts over 35 mph with this development, potentially topping out closer to 50 mph. By Sunday morning, a better chance of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will exist across most of the central mountains, eastern and southeast highlands. We should see any shower or thunderstorm activity out of eastern Idaho by later Sunday evening. As this low approaches wind will continue to increase. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected across the Arco Desert and into the central mountains through this evening. Winds ramp up again tomorrow, with widespread gusts of 20-40 mph with some localized higher gusts. There will be a smaller-sized area across the Arco Desert where we COULD meet WIND ADVISORY criteria for a few hours, but not enough for us to issue a headline for that. Sunday will have much stronger wind. The strongest will likely occur early morning through the afternoon. We currently have sustained winds of 30-40 mph across the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, adjacent bench areas from Burley to Rexburg and St. Anthony, and higher elevations of the central mountains. Gusts of 30-50 mph are forecast at the moment, with potentially locally higher gusts. We will continue to evaluate this, but with current trends, we will likely need a WIND ADVISORY for most if not all of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, perhaps extending into the South Hills and Albion Mountains. Temperatures peak today, with valley temperatures in the 50s and 60s by Sunday.

We see a break Monday before more showers and thunderstorms arrive toward the middle of next week. Trends are showing the low picking up speed and not sticking around as long, but the idea is still there for more precipitation and cooler temperatures. The Blend of Models still is forecasting highs only in the 50s and 60s for midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Widespread VFR this afternoon through Saturday morning. Winds will be 10 to 15 knots this afternoon at PIH, IDA and DIJ. Will have clear skies. Winds die down tonight. Expect a wind increase last Saturday morning as a cold front approaches with 15 gusting to 25 expected after 17Z at PIH, IDA and DIJ. Will see an increase in mid and high level clouds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Weak high pressure over the area early this morning brings about a quiet start to the day, but we will see increasing wind gusts again this afternoon and dry conditions, though winds will be a bit lighter than yesterday. As such, we will see NEAR CRITICAL fire weather conditions with low min RHs and said breezy winds as temperatures also increase this afternoon. A slow-moving cold front begins to move into eastern Idaho late tonight and will bring even stronger winds to the area for the weekend. It does appear some virga and isolated dry thunderstorms are possible tomorrow across most of central and eastern Idaho at some point through tomorrow night, although we may luck out with nothing across the western sides of Zone 425 and 427. There is 10-40% chance of gusts over 35 mph with gusts potentially topping out closer to 50 mph with any type of convective showers or thunderstorms. By Sunday, there is a better chance of showers and storms mainly across the central mountains (475/476), eastern highlands (411), and Zones 410 and 413 along and east of I-15. The main chance of wetting rains should be confined to areas closer to the Montana border in the central mountains. Elsewhere, a rather strong dry slot arrives with stronger wind gusts with it. By mid morning and lasting through the evening. We have widespread gusts of 25-50 mph EXCEPT for Zone 475, the strongest gusts will be across the Magic Valley (425), South Hills/Albion Mountains (427), Snake Plain (410), Zone 411, Portions of Zone 422 and 476 in the central mountains, adjacent areas of Zone 413 to the Snake Plain. Although the strongest winds will be a bit earlier in the day, strong enough gusts when the humidity bottoms out, we are expecting some areas with critical fire weather conditions, especially where fuels continue to cure out. After coordination with our fire partners, we have issued a FIRE WEATHER WATCH for Sunday in Zones 425 and 427. Other areas could see similar, but isolated conditions due to the wind speeds themselves. It's not until next Tuesday into Wednesday that we see the potential for more widespread wetting rains as a stronger system arrives.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for IDZ425-427.