textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A prolonged period of windy conditions begins Sunday.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the Upper Snake Plain on Monday, with a 60-75% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph in some areas.

- Cool temperatures Tuesday behind the cold front, but mild temperatures return for later in the week as gusty winds and high elevation showers persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Northwest flow in place today over East Idaho, with satellite imagery showing a weak shortwave producing very light snow and rain showers, and locally gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph. As the ridge over the western states flattens during the day Sunday, a prolonged period of wind will begin for East Idaho. Winds will increase Sunday afternoon. NBM model spreads indicate the potential to bump into Wind Advisory conditions for the Arco Desert zones. While the 25th to 75th percentile spread shows low-end advisory criteria winds at 28 to 35 mph winds, deterministic fields favor staying just below these thresholds. Given that Monday appears to be a much more confident event for the wider region, headlines for Sunday will be withheld for now.

Flow becomes more consolidated and strengthens on Monday as a steep surface gradient develops ahead of a cold front moving through Monday night. Monday afternoon winds look to be the strongest in the short term, with deterministic data supporting Wind Advisory criteria for a significant portion of the Snake Plain. The 75th percentile max gusts suggest high wind potential for the Arco Desert and Upper Snake zones. Additionally, areas along SH-33 between Rexburg and Driggs and the US-26 corridor east of Idaho Falls show a 60 to 75% probability of max gusts exceeding 55 mph. Have issued a Wind Advisory with potential for future upgrades to a High Wind Warning. Windy conditions and seasonal temperatures continue Tuesday behind the front, with light snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible above 6,000 feet in northern zones.

Zonal flow persists from Wednesday onward, maintaining strong and gusty winds each day. Light showers will remain confined mainly to higher elevations, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the 50s from Thursday through Saturday. Friday appears to be the next period of concern for significant winds, as NBM deterministic data already indicates high confidence in at least Wind Advisory levels.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 358 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Except for KSUN, which should have unlimited CIG and VSBY for the entire 30 hour period, the other 4 airdromes will have some issues with marginal VFR due to a layer of moisture at the 1500ft to 3500ft altitude, depending on the airport. Fortunately it will keep VSBY unlimited. Only KDIJ has a risk of SHRA this evening, and should not be impactful.

Wind is going to subside during the evening, but in the early morning hours, at around the switch time for Daylight Saving Time, wind starts to increase at KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA. KSUN should shift early to southeast wind, then shift by afternoon to southwest. This is all due to an approaching trough that will move through on Mon, when it will be much windier.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST Monday for IDZ052>054-065.