textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak low moving through Utah will bring weak threat of precipitation in the southern parts of the forecast area on Wednesday.

- A second weak low moving through the Idaho panhandle on Thursday brings a weak threat of precipitation to the forecast area on Thursday-Thursday Night.

- A shift from mainly westerly flow to southwesterly flow on Sunday afternoon allows warming temperatures after little change for the previous four days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Today through Thu night...Closed upper level low at the northern CA coast moves onshore this afternoon and breaks down the upper level ridge that will dominate Idaho weather today. During the day Wed, this low will move quickly through northern UT and give a slight chance threat to southern zones at that time. By late Wed afternoon, it has moved out of southern Idaho, pushed out by the next incoming impulse through the mean westerly flow. This time, though, the track is through Canada. The southern end of this trough and assoicated surface front does move through the northern end of the forecast area. Once again, some slight chance threat for some precipitation on Thu/Thu night, in all areas.

This constant barrage of short wave impulses after today will mean little change to the temperatures over eastern Idaho. Lower elevations will warm up today, to around the 50 degree mark, then hover around that for afternoon highs through this period. Overnight lows will also change little during this period.

Without any serious, organized feature, wind should remain light to moderate with afternoon wind higher when wind aloft gets a chance to mix down to the surface, but nothing should be critical.

The other major consideration is stratus and fog for this morning. Satellite imagery does show a fairly large patch of stratus/fog/mist over the eastern half of the forecast area, that does have some spreading out to the west. Unfortunately, a cirrus shield is also moving in over the top and obscuring the stratus/fog/mist imagery. At this time, Idaho Falls has this lower deck over them and has around 4000ft AGL Ceiling. VFR ceilings like that may kill the ability to develop fog this morning, at least in this eastern half. The cirrus shield may do the same in the western half.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 404 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

Stratus has developed over/near the three eastern airdromes: KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ. METAR reports have it at 3000ft to 4000ft AGL. This may be enough to prevent BR/FG formation, but guidance suggests at least a 40 percent chance of IFR for VSBY development at KPIH, KIDA, and for KDIJ IFR conditions due to CIG. None of it lasts past 03/17Z. For KBYI and KSUN, some SCT decks below 3000ft AGL, but not expected to be a CIG. Late tonight, a low crossing through UT will spread cloudiness over the airdromes, thickest and lowers for the southern airports KBYI and KPIH. It appears in the 24-30 hour portion of the KSUN TAF that -SHRA is a distince possibility. For te airports, the redevelopment of a CIG starts after 04/07Z tonight.

Wind will not be a big factor in airport operations, save for the fact that light wind after big rains usually invites stratus and fog development.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

This will be the last discussion as Fire Season in Idaho has ended for 2026 after two record-setting precipitation events within two weeks of each other. Cool temperatures continue, staying at or below 50 degrees F. Humidity at this temperature will easily stay above 40 percent even in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm up starting Sun, but only to around the 60 degree mark. There will be a low moving through UT on Wed that will bring a slight chance threat to southern portions of the Fire Weather District on Wed. A trough will move through the Idaho panhandle and western Montana Thu/Thu night to produce another slight chance threat of precipitation, but all of these events bring very little in the way of wind. Just expect normal gusty afternoons if the skies are clear, such as today and Fri.

Spot forecast requests can still be made online or through your local dispatch as the situation requires. Questions can also be answered through our YouTube video briefing, by using the point and click map on our web page, or contacting National Weather Service Pocatello at the telephone number in the 2026 mobilization guide.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.