textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for a few showers and thunderstorms over the Memorial Day Weekend mainly for higher elevations

- Much warmer temperatures return through Monday

- Low pressure settles in next week for cooler temperatures with more showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Warmer temperatures and the potential for a few light showers and thunderstorms is on tap for the holiday weekend. A few sprinkles/showers clear Island Park this morning, we are looking at a similar threat in that region this afternoon. There is additional potential across the South Hills/Albion Mountains and portions of the central mountains. As go through tonight, a few showers/sprinkles remain possible across most of eastern Idaho. The chance varies between 10-20%. While not likely, there is a very low chance of a thunderstorm developing. For Sunday, chances pick up a bit especially south of the Snake River. On Memorial Day, the best chance shifts back into the central mountains. There is minimal chance for gusts over 35 mph today. For Sunday, there is a 30-50% chance south of the Snake River and 10-30% across portions of the central mountains and eastern highlands.Highs through the weekend quickly rise into the 70s and 80s, but us back to ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures.

Starting Tuesday, although the devil will be in the details, do expect much cooler weather and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. A closed low will meander across the western U.S. and eventually kicked out to the northeast. The pattern will be slow to evolve across the lower 48, so it may take a few days to clear things out. Highs drop back into the 60s and 70s based on the latest official Blend of Models forecast. Looking at the entire range of possible temperatures, the low end for the middle of next week keeps highs in the 50s and low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 417 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Look for VFR weather even with some moisture and clouds around. There is a low chance of a few light showers/sprinkles and even a couple of thunderstorms. The potential at any given TAF site is too low to mention at the moment. There will be some gusty winds out there today, with gusts of 15-25 kts around.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1248 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Warmer temperatures will lock in for the Memorial Day Weekend, with highs in the 70s and 80s. We are not seeing any major drop in humidity at this point though. Mid level moisture sticks around for a lower end chance of light rain showers/sprinkles and a few thunderstorms. There is a 10-20% chance today across Zones 411, 422, 427, and 476. We could see something develop across the north end of 410 along outflow boundaries. The potential increases on Sunday especially across 413 and 427. A secondary area will develop from around Mackay (476) eastward toward Driggs (410 and 411). There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph with the northern swath, and 30-50% down south closer to the Utah border. For Memorial Day, as low pressure swings inland, we will see another small increase in showers and thunderstorms especially over the central mountains. As quickly as we go to ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures, we will swing back to AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE temperatures. A closed low will take a few days to move across Idaho, but in the process we do expect an increase in the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.