textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow showers with a few thunderstorms continues through Monday evening

- Breezy conditions across southeast and south-central portions of Idaho today and Monday

- Expect areas of frost and freeze conditions tonight tonight and Monday night

- Gradual warming trend through the week with potential for showers and thunderstorm to linger until Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Low pressure centered across Montana and the central mountains will continue to keep most of the rain and snow showers and embedded storms across the central mountains and eastern highlands through tomorrow morning. Outside of that area, we do expect showers and thunderstorms to develop a bit farther south from the Shoshone Lava Beds to around Driggs and Tetonia this afternoon. We are also expecting a few showers and storms to develop along the Utah border. We are not expecting a lot of wind with these storms, but we should see a brief shot of precipitation, and with the low briefly overhead...it would be unstable enough for some small hail. For tonight and tomorrow morning, the main area of precipitation should shift slowly south and east. A secondary area of showers will develop as part of the low parked over Idaho shifts east. All of this will begin to quickly shift north and east out of the state. There will be some lingering showers and storms tomorrow evening from Stanley to Driggs. Outside of the central mountains and along the Montana border, precipitation amounts will be much lower and more sporadic in some cases. In the central mountains and along the Montana border, look for an additional 0.30-0.80", with some locations along the Montana border and higher ridgelines like the Lost River Range north into Lemhi County seeing 0.80-1.25". Snow has been observed down to between 7000-8000ft and will likely continue at times, however light snow accumulation should be mostly limited to at or above 7500ft...and highest above pass level where several more inches are possible. It is breezy and will be through tomorrow SOUTH of the main precipitation shield. We seeing sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts close to 35 mph in those areas. We are hitting low end thresholds for a LAKE WIND ADVISORY, so we have issued that headline through 9 PM this evening. Winds are expected to be a bit stronger tomorrow before the low departs to the northeast. We have sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph across the Snake Plain, most of the Magic Valley, and bench areas from Burley to Rexburg. We have issued a WIND ADVISORY for all of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley for most of the daytime hours tomorrow. With colder temperatures in place under this low, we will see some colder overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night. Colder mid and higher elevation valleys will likely be near to below freezing. Across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, we will see mid 30s to low/mid 40s. The "coldest" spots will be across Craters of the Moon and Arco Desert, down to around 35-36 degrees.

For the rest of this week and heading into the Fourth, a gradual warming trend is expected. The trend, however, has been to keep a bit more moisture around through most of the week. This, along with one or more weaker storms pushing through, keeping the potential for some lighter rain and thunderstorms around. Better chances each day will across the central mountains and eastern highlands. Highs push back closer to AVERAGE by Friday. Temperatures take a bigger leap over the weekend, as we lose the moisture and drier air works in from the south and west. We might be dealing with increasing wind heading toward the week, which could be interesting for any outdoor Fourth of July festivities.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Wrap around moisture on the back side of the system that brought us showers and storms throughout the weekend will move through eastern Idaho overnight into Monday morning. All of our TAF sites look likely to pick up a little rain, though BYI and PIH will see the least, or at least see rain for the shortest amount of time. As these showers pass through, expect MVFR CIGs at all sites. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of IFR CIGs at PIH and SUN during these showers and a 70 to 90 percent chance for IFR CIGs at IDA and DIJ. Showers end from west to east during the day, wrapping up around 16- 18Z Monday at SUN, BYI, and PIH and lingering into the early afternoon at IDA and through most of the day at DIJ. Winds diminish briefly tonight, but will begin to pick up quickly on Monday with gusts by the afternoon in the 25 to 30 kts range at BYI, IDA, and PIH. Winds will be lighter at SUN and DIJ, around 15 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Many areas have received beneficial moisture in the past 24-48 hours. Widespread amounts of 0.50-1.50" have fallen across the central mountains and Zone 411 along the Montana border, with more to come. Across the rest of southern and eastern Idaho, amounts are more sporadic. Amounts range from a few hundredths to around 0.80", dependent on elevation and where heavier showers and storms occurred. The bulk of the moisture will remain across the central mountains and along the Montana border until the low moves out tomorrow evening. Elsewhere, we expect some pockets of showers and thunderstorms through this evening, plus a more concentrated band of showers tonight and tomorrow morning shifting east. Across most of the central mountains (475/476) and along the Montana border (411) we are looking for an additional 0.30-0.80" of moisture, with some amounts across higher ridgelines seeing potentially up to 1.25". For the rest of central and eastern Idaho, amounts will be sparse except for Zone 422 and around Driggs where 0.10-0.40" could fall where heavier precipitation occurs. With the strength of this low, gusty winds will continue outside of the central mountains and Zone 411. Gusts of 20-35 mph are expected through this evening, with gusts of 25-45 mph forecast. Humidity remains pretty high and keeps us out of critical fire weather conditions, although a fire or start could certainly catch if things aligned correctly.

Temperatures are still looking to gradually climb until we hit the upcoming holiday weekend. We have one or more weaker storms crossing the state. There should enough moisture around for some showers and storms daily, especially across the central mountains and Zone 411. At the moment, we are definitely not looking at precipitation numbers like we are seeing right now. We will be back to lighter rain/virga and a few thunderstorms. Looking toward the Fourth, this pattern appears to finally break...which means much warmer and drier working back into central and eastern Idaho.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ051>055.