textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Surging Heat & Heat Advisory Today: A building Four Corners ridge will push temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s today through early next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect today for lower elevationsincluding the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, Arco Desert, Shoshone, and South Hills where highs will reach 95F to 100F.

- Shift to Mixed Wet/Dry Storms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across the entirety of the forecast area will be capable of gusty outflows ranging 40 to 50 mph and small to moderate hail.

- Saturday Shortwave & Gusty Winds: A passing shortwave on Saturday will briefly elevate shower and thunderstorm chances while generating widespread wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This could lead to Red Flag Conditions for parts of eastern Idaho.

UPDATE

Issued at 951 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Issued a Red Flag Warning for Fire Zone 427 as latest hi-res model guidance shows increasing potential for scattered thunderstorm coverage across the area. Similar conditions may exist over a larger area tomorrow with a more widespread RFW potentially being needed for parts of eastern Idaho on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Early morning radar shows several showers and thunderstorms working northeastward through the CWA. Within a couple of hours, we should see a break in activity ahead of the afternoon push. The latest CAMs feature increased storm coverage this afternoon than previous runs. Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer as they increase to well-above normal again in the mid- to upper-90s across the low elevations and 80s in the mid-elevations and mountain valleys. A HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect today for many of our valley locations, including the Snake River Plain, eastern Magic Valley, Arco Desert, Shoshone region, and South Hills. Daytime temperature will remain fairly stable through the entirety of the forecast period. A shortwave on Saturday will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms in an otherwise dry-leaning pattern. Winds will also increase on Saturday with many areas expected to observe 30 to 40 mph gusts. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated over the next couple of days whether it be for scattered thunderstorms or the combination of low min RH and winds as we continue to dry out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for this afternoon and evening. Short-range models are having difficulty pinpointing where storms will fire and how much coverage of storms we actually see, so TAFs continue to carry PROB30 of -TSRA from 20/21Z to around 02/03Z at all sites. Confidence in a storm impacting any single site is fairly low, but if a stronger storm does pass over, expect gusty winds to around 45 kts and perhaps a brief downpour and lightning. It would also likely bring impacts to MVFR CIGs/VIS. Otherwise, we will remain VFR outside of storms today and tonight. Saturday will be a very similar day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions over the next couple of days will likely necessitate Red Flag Warnings on Saturday. Humidity will continue to decrease into early next week while winds increase over the next couple of days, along with scattered convection accompanying a shortwave on Saturday. Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer as they increase to well-above normal again in the mid- to upper-90s across the low elevations and 80s in the mid-elevations and mountain valleys. Daytime temperature will remain fairly stable through the entirety of the forecast period. The disturbance on Saturday will bring scattered, wet and dry thunderstorms in an otherwise dry-leaning pattern. Winds will also increase on Saturday to 30 to 40 mph gusts across much of the area while min RH will span sub-20 percent across all Fire Weather Zones aside from 411, 413, and 427.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>057. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427.