textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical winds and critical relative humidity Tuesday afternoon/early evening.

- Isolated (virga) shower or storm Tuesday afternoon, mainly southern and southeast highlands.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for the next few days. Overall improvement is expected by mid-week into the end of the week.

- Major pattern change with showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday into Saturday with significant cooling.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Models indicating another round of isolated storms this afternoon across the southern highlands. Cloud cover north of the southern highlands does not look as impressive as it had the previous few forecast runs. As a result, the high temperatures for today are warm once again with highs in the low to id 90s for many of our lower elevation communities.

Models show showers persisting through the night across the southern highlands as the deeper moisture pools to our south. On Wednesday clouds and showers begin to advance northward. The NBM pops are probably underdone across the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain at this point for Wednesday. Think there will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms but not overly confident yet. The big push of moisture occurs Wednesday Night into Thursday. A long wave trough moves onto the western U.S. coast while an embedded circulation ejects out of California and into the northern Great Basin on Thursday. Chances for showers and storms continues to look good. Quite a bit of cloud cover will likely be around which could limit thunderstorm development on Thursday. With that said, we continue a marginal risk for Thursday through Saturday for heavy rain. Essentially if a strong storm finds a burn scar or poor drainage area then could see some isolated flooding. Right now, the thunderstorm potential looks better Friday/Saturday with the models showing larger breaks in the clouds to allow for morning and early afternoon heating. Although in these types of strong monsoon pushes, timing the cloud cover from previous day's convection is tricky, especially several days out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1106 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Will see afternoon wind gusts again increase to the 20 knot range at PIH, IDA, and SUN. Could see vicinity showers this afternoon and evening at all sites especially BYI this afternoon. Expect some overnight showers possibly continuing today mainly affecting southern and eastern sites but only have vicinity in the region. Winds again die down by 02 to 03Z at all locations.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Winds look a little less today than yesterday even though humidity levels are still low. Will hold off on red flag warnings for today. Isoalted storms are possible across the southern and southeast highlands today and on Wednesday. Thursday is tricky if we'll actually see enough thunderstorm coverage to warrant a red flag warning and if we do the storms may be too wet to start many fires. Something to monitor over the next day or two.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.