textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through next week for more showers and thunderstorms.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds. With the potential for heavy downpours Friday a flash flood watch is in effect Friday afternoon and evening for the Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate based on early day cloud cover

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoon moisture peaks over central eastern Idaho, at least for this round. We have ongoing clouds, showers, and thunderstorms this morning...with increasing chances later today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along with some storms producing gusts over 35 mph (30-70% chance) with gusts in some areas approaching 55-60 mph. We also will likely see an increasing potential for some hail, mainly small hail. There is a MARGINAL RISK over much of central and eastern Idaho because of this potential. A complicating factor which COULD limit locally heavy rainfall, hail, and wind is early cloud cover. Instead of a more widespread issue, it may end up being more isolated. In reality, we will need to see where we can get cloud breaks and maximize instability. As expected, deeper monsoon moisture temporarily is displaced to our east as low pressure swings by to the north and west. We will see more showers and storms Saturday, however coverage will be more confined to the central mountains, eastern highlands, and south of the Snake Plain across higher elevations. Of course, we will need to watch for any issues with outflow boundaries and storms popping up along those elsewhere. There is currently a 30-60% chance for gusts over 35 mph mainly across the central mountains and along the Utah border. Sunday looks dry, if you believe the Blend of Models which keeps any chance of showers and thunderstorms below 10%. There will be lingering moisture, albeit less than today or tomorrow, so the likely scenario will be isolated dry storms along the Montana border and highlands south of the Snake Plain. Where we get more sunshine today through the weekend, look for highs well into the 90s. Where clouds are more prevalent, it will likely remain in the 80s...but that still is ABOVE AVERAGE.

Starting Monday, the ridge begins to shift back to the north and west...pulling deeper monsoon moisture back across Idaho. It make take an extra day or two for the much deeper surge to return, but the trend is to increase the chance of showers and storms again next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Overnight showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northeast this morning. We are expecting coverage to expand through the day and eventually back to impacting all TAF sites at some points through this evening. We have VCSH, VCTS and PROB30 groups to cover the gamut expected. Some storms may produce winds upwards of 45kts, if not higher, this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms may also produce heavy rain and/or small hail. Storms with heavier rainfall will likely drop to MVFR due to lower visibility.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoon moisture is entrenched over central and eastern Idaho today. There is ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning, with coverage expanding during the day. RED FLAG WARNINGS remain in place across higher elevations today for scattered thunderstorms. We will leave those in place despite some uncertainty now with early day cloud cover and ongoing showers and storms. In reality, any higher coverage for lightning will likely be dependent on where cloud breaks occur. This will also determine the potential for gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall with stronger storms that can develop. There is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph, with peak gusts possibly reaching 55-60 mph. We are also expecting some smaller sized hail today. The airmass dries out a bit over the weekend as low pressure to our north and west temporarily shunts deeper moisture to the east. Showers and storms on Saturday will most likely remain over higher elevations, with any development across 410 and 425 relying on outflow boundaries for a focus. There is a 30-60% chance tomorrow for gusts over 35 mph and we could still see some locally heavy rainfall with a few storms. Sunday SUPPOSEDLY ends up pretty dry with storm chances under 10%. This seems to be a bit aggressive, in terms of drying things out, and we may end up actually with at least isolated storms closer to the Montana and Utah borders.

The ridge still appears to shift back to the north and west next week, with deeper monsoon moisture returning starting Monday and Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ411-413-422-427-475-476.