textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers possible along the Utah border today

- Dry conditions with ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures will continue until the weekend

- Cooler and wetter conditions expected starting Saturday, with details to be worked out in the coming days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

We are still expecting a few showers, and maybe a thunderstorm today closer to the Utah border, throughout the day. The low continues to track farther south, and it may end up far enough south that our forecast for isolated coverage is a stretch. Expect little to no rain, and a low potential for gusts over 35 mph. Otherwise, it remains dry and warm until the upcoming weekend. The flow remains more westerly, perhaps even a bit west-northwest until we get to Friday. This will still pull in the dry air, but temperatures will be just a bit lower. That still means highs will run 5-15 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE. Highs for the valleys are expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s, with some mid 80s sprinkled in here and there. Winds aren't going to strong until we get to Friday at the moment. As the low begins to drop into the Pacific Northwest at that point, that is we will see winds starting to ramp up.

The weather pattern over Idaho and much of the West drastically changes over the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF, including their ensemble and AI versions of each model, show low pressure closing off or in the process of doing so by Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms quickly ramp up across the area. Most versions of the forecast have the low just to our west and southerly flow, which would hold temperatures up a bit...but still much, much cooler. Our Blend of Models has highs in the 50s/low 60s for the valleys Sunday. That seems reasonable, although that may be on the high side of things. If we maximize cloud cover and the low shifts more overhead, which is also shown as a solution for Sunday, highs may not make it out of the 40s down low and 20s and 30s up in the mountains. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts show a 20-50% chance for snow in the central mountains and eastern highlands Sunday afternoon. The the trend in the GFS and ECMWF is to swing the low a bit more to our southwest, then across Idaho and Utah Tuesday. The ensemble forecasts, especially related to ECMWF, are cold enough for some snow at least falling across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley Monday into Tuesday morning. While certainly not a guarantee by any stretch, it is something to understand COULD happen. The knowns are that it will be cooler and we should some decent precipitation falling based on current trends. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 455 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Expect VFR conditions with winds under 10kts. Any lingering shower actity today will remain far enough away from BYI and PIH that VCSH isn't warranted.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Other than a few light showers, with a storm or two thrown in along the Utah border today, look for dry and warm conditions continuing until the weekend. We won't see the ridge amplifying really and flow remaining more zonal, which means we will be just a bit cooler than the past few days...but still quite a bit ABOVE AVERAGE. We will continue to see low humidity values, including MODERATE TO POOR overnight recovery in some areas.

As low pressure begins to drop into the Pacific Northwest Friday, we will see winds begin to ramp up across central and eastern Idaho. This could create issues where we still have drier fuels. A major pattern change begins Saturday and continue through early next week. All forecasts point to a strong area of low pressure to drop into the West through Sunday, and eventually swing east across Idaho and Utah. Much cooler temperatures are likely along with an increase in precipitation until the low moves to our east. At the moment, this wouldn't qualify as a season ender, but perhaps a decent season slower. There are still some details to work out, but if the colder side of the forecasts pan out...we may not get out of the 40s in the valleys. The ensemble forecasts for both the GFS and ECMWF have a 20-50% chance for more than 1" of snow in the central mountains and eastern highlands. They also show a very low potential for snow across the rest of the mountains and even at least snow falling across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley Monday into Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.