textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning & Wind Advisory in place for Sunday due to strong, gusty winds and very dry conditions.

- Isolated virga showers and mostly dry storms through the morning.

- Better chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday along with much cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

It's a windy, dry forecast for our Sunday as an area of low pressure moves through the Idaho panhandle, northwestern Montana, and southern Canada and its associated cold front continues to make its way through eastern Idaho. Early this morning, radar is picking up on some light returns across some of the higher elevations in the southeastern and eastern Highlands. Very little, if any, moisture is likely making it down to the surface, but perhaps there are a few sprinkles out there. Through the morning, we will continue to see the virga showers continue moving out of the area and most of us will stay completely dry. Temperatures will be much cooler today, thanks to the cold front, with highs staying in the 60s for many. Even with the cooler temperatures, it is VERY dry and will be quite windy with gusts throughout the Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Valley ranging from 35 to 50 mph. Due to these conditions, we have both a RED FLAG WARNING and WIND ADVISORY out for these areas. Any fires already ongoing or that start today will thrive in these conditions and gusty winds will create chop on area lakes that could overwhelm small craft.

Monday will be a bit of a break in between systems with temperatures rebounding into the 70s to near 80 degrees and afternoon winds being a bit lighter. It will still be quite dry though, with min RHs still in the teens for most. It's not until Tuesday that we finally see some improvement as the next system arrives as an area of low pressure drops into northern Washington on Tuesday and moves eastward. Models still maintain that this system will actually bring some much needed precipitation to much of Eastern Idaho. By Wednesday evening, the NBM shows about a 30 to 50 percent chance of at least a tenth of an inch of rainfall from Burley to Pocatello to Idaho Falls and a 10 to 25 percent chance of a quarter of an inch. The most rainfall will likely fall up along the spine of the Sawtooths and in the Eastern Highlands with about a 60 percent chance of a half inch of QPF in these areas. This will drop temperatures back into the 60s to near 70 degrees again on Tuesday and Wednesday before a warming trend gets underway on Thursday. Winds will also remain breezy each afternoon through Wednesday, too.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1059 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The big impacts today will be from wind. We are expecting gusts of 20-35kts to impact all TAF sites except SUN through early evening. That said, gusts closer to 20kts are possible. It appears we should see at least occasional, if not a full switch, to Southwest winds, by mid to late afternoon, then fully switching to the usual Northwest wind this evening. It is possible we may see that switch to northwest as early as between 22-00Z. We will see one area of clouds departing with more arriving this evening and overnight, but still looking at VFR conditions. There is minimal chance of measurable precipitation, BUT we wouldn't be shocked to see some virga or sprinkles.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A RED FLAG WARNING continues for Fire Weather Zones 425 and 427 today due to very dry conditions (min RHs of 10-15%) and gusty winds up to 40 mph. Outside of these two zones, we will see near critical fire weather conditions with strong wind gusts up to 50 mph in zone 410 and gusts of 25 to 40 mph elsewhere. Min RHs outside of the Red Flag Warning will range from 15 to 25 percent. Light returns are visible on radar this morning as a cold front works through eastern Idaho this morning though little to no actual liquid precipitation is expected to reach the ground outside of some sprinkles. We should see a break Monday, followed by an increasing chance of showers (with wetting rains) and thunderstorms midweek.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055-066- 067. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ425-427.