textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong wind expected in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River plain. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT for the affected area.

- Afternoon humidity below 15 percent will combine with this wind to create critical fire weather conditions that could lead to extreme fire behavior should a fire become established. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT for the affected area, which includes the fire weather zones that contain the Snake River and all zones south or east of the River, to the WY and UT/NV borders.

- The very strong wind and low humidity will recur Wednesday for similar weather hazards on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An upper level low with an associated dry cold front has its center in central MT. It's great distance away keeps clouds, precipitation, and thunderstorms away from the forecast area, but its influence on wind and temperature will be sorely felt. Incredibly strong, non-convective wind for summertime is expected with this front. Guidance has been very consistent on this situation for at least the last five days. The Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning continue exactly as issued. Expect similar highlights on Wednesday. The very strong wind shuts down on Thu, with even gusts staying below 25 mph.

Afternoon highs are down several degrees from yesterday thanks to the frontal boundary passage, and the continued cool air inflow will continue the cooling trend on Wed and again on Thu. by Fri the northerly air flow shuts off and temperatures warm 8 to 12 deg F for afternoon highs compared to Thu. The warming doesn't last as another front passes through a similar track on Fri night, though without the magnitude of the wind with the previous storm.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

No CIGs this morning, just FEW-SCT that disappear by 16/18Z. This is in spite of a cold front swinging through during the day. The main thing this front is packing is a strong wind. G40KT and G35KT likely at KPIH and KIDA, respectively. G30KT at KBYI, KSUN, and KDIJ. As per usual, peaking in the late afternoon and early evening, working its way up in the morning from 10KT to 15KT. Expect wind to increase again, except for KIDA and maybe KPIH on Wed afternoon.

The unlimited VSBYs expected may be tempered by BLDU, but not getting picked up in the NBH guidance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Trough and associated surface cold front will swing in from the north. With the front impinging on the northern Rockies, most of the moisture will stay east of the Continental Divide, leaving little moisture for the west slopes and Great Basin. This southwest air flow is actually bring bone dry and hot air from NV and UT into eastern Idaho. The gradient intensity lends to some incredibly strong wind for non-convective flow with gusts as strong as 45-50mph over today and Wednesday. This combination of wind and very low humidity has triggered the Red Flag Warnings.

The front and the low continue a southeastward progression, and by Wed night the wind will be down considerably. Humidity remains dry with no shift to south or southeast where incoming humidity would be higher.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413-425-427. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055.