textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms through this evening will produce a mix of brief downpours and gusty winds

- The next chance of showers and storms is Wednesday into Thursday

- Temperatures return to ABOVE AVERAGE for the rest of this week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Low pressure will finally shift out of Montana in the next 24 hours, bringing a brief respite from showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and a good chunk of Wednesday. The best chance of rain producing storms through this evening will be across the central mountains and along the Montana border. Farther south and along any outflow from storms, we may see isolated virga "showers" and perhaps a few thunderstorms. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts 35-45 mph today, with a very small chance of gusts over 50 mph with anything move out over the Snake Plain. Even though we are not looking at any rain or thunder between lows, it does look like we should see some afternoon clouds especially over the mountains and given the time of year, the potential for virga. It looks like the next storm for Wednesday-Thursday is far enough north, that any potential for showers and storms is along the Montana border, and just dry and breezy outside of that. The pattern for the weekend and into next week is a bit more muddled. It does look like the low moving in for the weekend will split, but it is the usual idea of how strong the split will be and what is left to influence our weather. It is around a 55/45 split (pun intended) between this occurring across our area and the main low dropping south of us, or taking place out in the Pacific. The first scenario would keep us cooler and a higher potential of showers and storms with tapping into some moisture. The second will give us a quick shot of moisture over the weekend, with the northern part of the split racing by into southern Canada. The Blend of Models currently favors more of the first scenario. Even then, the "coolest" day (Sunday) would still be right around AVERAGE temperature-wise. Speaking of temperatures, highs quickly bounce back into the 70s and 80s for the next 7 days. The "warmest" days should be Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday, where warmer spots will push toward the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions with few to sct high clouds forecast through the period. Westerly winds will be breezy at KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI again today with gusts to 18 kts. As the pattern turns quieter early this week, showers and isolated thunderstorms today will generally remain across the higher terrain further east. Some CAMs feature showers relatively further west in the vicinity of KSUN, but probability of thunder is too low that far west to include in the KSUN forecast. Thunderstorm chances are also best further north of KDIJ and therefore, have only included VCSH at both KSUN and KDIJ.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 209 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Expect isolated to scattered showers today. Most activity will remain dry, although some of the showers across central Idaho could result in some minor rain accumulation. Very dry air will return areawide by Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.