textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure rebuilds across the western U.S.

- Dry conditions and warmer conditions through New Year's Eve

- Rain and snow rings in 2026

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1243 AM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

Dry northwest flow remains over eastern Idaho to end 2025. We should remain dry, although we will see some occasional high and mid level cloud cover crossing our area. The low levels look to remain dry enough to prevent any issues with fog or stratus, but we cannot completely rule out with temperatures dropping overnight. Where we remain within/above any inversion layer or where we stayed "mixed", highs will be in the upper 30s and 40s. Expect overnight lows to be all over the place, depending on location and elevation. Again, within/above any inversion layer or where we stay "mixed", lows will remain in the 20s. Otherwise, look for single digit and teens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

The 500mb upper level ridge over the western states easily reaches heights of 5700m, highly anomalous for this time of year; to do that will require very warm air. There is an eastward shift that puts the ridge axis overhead by Thu. By Fri(2 Jan) afternoon there is a risk of the ridge beginning to break down with 65 percent of the solutions making up the clusters of model runs that feature the break-down. For Sat, 45 percent of the solutions have the upper level ridge sufficiently broken down that precipitation is likely, with the remainder have the low still to the west. So no major cold front is expected to sweep through during the period.

Most of the solutions have southwest upper level flow developing with the shifting of the ridge axis. The shift means the temperatures are likely to return to being mild for the time of year and the pattern is very much like an atmospheric river event for Fri and the rest of the weekend. A less than 15 percent of the solutions show more zonal flow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

VFR conditions forecast at all terminals with generally light and variable winds. Some FEW to SCT high clouds will return tonight into the first part of Monday, but skies will clear again Monday afternoon. Models show around a 15% chance of CIGs below 1k at KPIH and KIDA overnight/Monday morning, with only around a 10% chance of CIGs below 500 feet at KIDA.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.