textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet through Monday afternoon with a few mountain flurries, night and morning low cloudiness, and patchy fog.

- Warming trend starts today, continues Sunday, then levels off on Monday.

- Next winter storm arrives Monday night, potential moderate to heavy snow producer in elevations above 7500 feet.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today through Mon night...Satellite images show areas of fog/stratus are more limited tonight, although much of it is obscured from cirriform clouds due to a weak trough passing through Montana. Most METAR locations indicate no stratus or at best some SCT035 or so. That trough should bring some partly sunny to mostly cloud conditions later this morning. The trough could trigger some light showers in the central Idaho mountains, mainly northwest of the divides and over the Island Park region, closest to the trough. Accumulations are expected to be negligible, staying below 0.5 of an inch of snow over the next 48 hours. Mon should be dry even in these locations with increasing cloud cover. Then the skies open up with moderate to heavy precipitation developing after midnight just about everywhere, but especially in the northern half of the forecast area. Guidance is very consistent with the precipitation starting between 5PM and 11PM Mon night and increasing after 11PM Mon night.

Overnight lows will be at their coldest this morning, then some strong warming today will begin a warming trend for both highs and lows. High temperatures will level off on Mon as clouds increase, then mild overnight lows Mon night as precipitation.

Wind remains light today through Sun morning, then a slight increase occurs for Sun afternoon. By Mon afternoon wind should be at 10-20 mph with higher gusts over much of the forecast area, save for some sheltered valleys in the eastern highlands. A slight let up except along the ID-NV and ID-UT borders for Mon night. And should be a moderate southerly wind, which will make for some very mild conditions in downslope wind event for places from Pocatello west to Burley.

Tue through Fri...The main trough stays west of the forecast area, pumping in warm moist air through at least Wed. Then some clusters push the trough through on Thu, putting the forecast area on the colder side. Troughing continues through Fri. This should mean some catching up on the precipitation defecit this winter will occur during this period. Temperatures even at low elevations will struggle to reach freezing by Thu, so the heavily populated areas will see the mostly rain event previously turn over to nearly all snow by Wed night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 348 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Some low but still VFR CIGs expected this morning at all five airdromes, with no BR/FG/stratus issues expected to have an impact, although some marginal VFR conditions rise to 10-15 percent chance of happening in the morning. Expect CIGs to rise to cirriform levels, then or actually scatter out during the late afternoon or early evening.

Wind should have an east to north component for most, with KSUN having its usual afternoon upslope, although delayed due to cloud cover; otherwise this morning's light downslope and its recurrence during the mid-evening hours.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.