textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated (virga) showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly southern and southeast highlands. Isolated thunderstorms once again Wednesday afternoon.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for through Wednesday. Overall improvement is expected by Thursday.

- Major pattern change with showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday into Saturday with much more widespread coverage with significant cooling occurring as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Seeing showers and isolated thunderstorms again in the southern mountains this afternoon and evening. May see a few elsewhere but mainly not expected to reach the ground in lower elevations. Expect a return of isolated showers and thunderstorms once again Wednesday afternoon and evening again southern mountains as well as central mountains so areas beginning to increase. Will start to see some cooling Wednesday with highs mainly in the 80s to lower 90s low elevations and 70s and 80s mountains. The monsoonal moisture is really expected to push into all of southeast Idaho Thursday on strong southwest flow aloft with high precipitation chances both Thursday and Friday. Likely precipiation amounts of 0.10 to 0.50 in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain and 0.25 to 0.80 inches in high elevations the most likely amounts. There are of course very low percent chances of more at some high elevation locations on both days. Will be much cooler Thursday and Friday with low elevation highs in the 70s and mountains mainly in the 60s. Precipitation will diminish Saturday but still widespread in the eastern mountains, with only isolated coverage Sunday through next Tuesday. Will start to warm to near normal temperatures by early next week with mainly 70s mountains and 80s valleys.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are likely for all TAF sites through the period. BYI could see some slightly reduced VIS due to smoke tomorrow morning and SUN could see slightly reduced VIS due to smoke tomorrow afternoon. Winds are around 15 to 20 kts for PIH, IDA, DIJ, and SUN currently. Winds will back off for all TAF sites between 2 and 3Z this evening. Could see vicinity showers this evening for PIH, IDA, and DIJ with mid-level CIGS likely. With monsoon moisture making its way into the area, thunderstorms will be more widespread tomorrow afternoon than today. Models are showing thunderstorms a little farther north tomorrow than today. Have added a PROB30 for thunderstorms for PIH and DIJ for tomorrow afternoon. May have to add a PROB30 for BYI and IDA as well. Currently the HREF model is keeping thunderstorms just south of each of BYI and IDA. Gusty outflow winds of 25 to 30 kts is likely tomorrow afternoon with any thunderstorms nearby.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Winds look a little less today than yesterday even though humidity levels are still low. Will hold off on red flag warnings for today. Isoalted storms are possible across the southern and southeast highlands today and on Wednesday. Thursday is tricky if we'll actually see enough thunderstorm coverage to warrant a red flag warning and if we do the storms may be too wet to start many fires. Something to monitor over the next day or two.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES