textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Friday with little to no rain and gusty winds over 35 mph

- Overall winds continue to increase especially Friday through the weekend

- BELOW AVERAGE temperatures expected over the weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

With an earlier round of virga/sprinkles, gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms...the next round will begin this afternoon. In reality, we will continue to see multiple waves of isolated to scattered showers and storms through Friday...before the main low impacts Idaho over the weekend. Through this evening, any real potential for isolated storms will be across the central mountains north and east of US-93, the eastern highlands, South Hills/Albion Mountains, and the southeast highlands. We will likely see a few storms pop up along I-15, 84, and 86 across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. There is a 30-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph with peak gusts approaching 55-60 mph from the Snake Plain south and east. Closer to the Montana border, the potential is a bit lower at 10-50%. There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms with high winds across the mountains near the Utah border. The trend will be a for a gradual increase for measurable rainfall tomorrow, and picking a bit more for Friday. At some point tomorrow, everyone will see some potential for thunderstorms will gusty winds being the main impact. There is a 10-50% chance of gusts over 35 mph tomorrow, with an area of 70% across portions of the central mountains, Snake Plain north of Idaho Falls and the INL, and the eastern highlands. By Friday, the chance of rain jumps across the central mountains with 0.20-0.40" where heavier storms develop and can dump more rainfall. Elsewhere, measurable rainfall potential rapidly decreases. Outside of storms Friday, we may reach WIND ADVISORY or LAKE WIND ADVISORY across the Snake Plain.

The weekend still looks pretty wet outside of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, with showers and storms aplenty. Higher elevations may see 0.20-0.50" with 0.50-1.0" possible across the eastern highlands and central mountains. The higher end range for potential rainfall for the mountains 0.50-1.0" most areas, with 1.50" possible across the eastern highlands and the Lost River Range. Temperatures will be cool enough that above 10000ft we won't be shocked to see some light, wet snow at times. Speaking of those temperatures, valley highs will struggle to get out of the 60s Saturday, and may struggle to get out of the 50s Sunday! It will remain breezy over the weekend, and it remains possible that we may need wind-related headlines. We dry out eventually by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Expecting light to moderate westerly wind around 15KT this afternoon, with slope-valley downslope for the late overnight hours. For Thu morning, an approaching trough will make the wind take on a southerly to westerly component. However, wind should remain mostly light in the morning, mostly below 10KT if not VRB.

Some mid-level moisture is triggering a 15 to 20 percent risk of SHRA in the evening hours for KIDA and KPIH, then late tonight for KSUN, and Thu morning for KDIJ. Expect more widespread SHRA and an increased risk of TSRA on Thu afternoon. No impact to VSBY expected, and CIG may get low VFR for KDIJ in the morning with the SHRA there, but otherwise CIG staying mid-level or higher.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The pattern still remains the same through Friday. Multiple waves of mid level moisture will create light rain showers/virga and dry thunderstorms through the period. Coverage remains isolated with a few exceptions. For tomorrow, we will see scattered coverage in Zone 413 east of I-15, Zone 411, Zone 410 north of Idaho Falls and the INL, and around Gilmore Summit and Mount Borah. We are issuing a RED FLAG WARNING for Thursday in Zone 413 for scattered dry thunderstorms. Coverage is too limited or fuels are not critical enough to warrant a warning at the moment. For Friday, scattered coverage is expected across most of the central mountains and Zone 411. With the chance of wetting rains increasing across the central mountains, we will need coordinate to see if enough rain is expected to preclude issuing a warning. Where we see dry thunderstorms gusts over 35 mph are expected. We will see widespread gusty winds OUTSIDE of storms Friday as well, but humidities make a huge jump. While we could certainly see a fire start and/or run if the wind catches it right even with the humidity increase.

For the weekend, temperatures are expected to be much cooler as low pressure moves across the state. Wetting rainfall is likely across higher elevations, with even some potential for light, wet snow above 10000ft in some spots. Thunderstorm chances are highest over the weekend, but it follows the pattern of more lightning produced by rain-producing storms. Across Zones 413 and 427, higher elevations should 0.20-0.40", with amounts up to 1.0" across other higher elevation fire zones. Unfortunately, amounts of from a few hundredths to 0.20" are all we are expecting to squeeze out of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. The higher end range for precipitation paint 0.5-1.5" in the mountains, with the 1.5" amounts across Zones 411, 475, and 476. If you look at the lowest end of the range of precipitation amounts, that only produces up 0.25" in those zones and little to no moisture elsewhere. Odds are the low end is way too low for this round of precipitation. We quickly dry out by Tuesday and Wednesday, which will likely lead to increasing holdover starts.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for IDZ413.