textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist through this evening

- Very dry conditions and breezy Monday with near critical fire conditions

- Warmer and mostly dry conditions until next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Enough moisture will linger today for isolated showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds and little rainfall. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph, although one set of ensemble forecasts pushed that chance up to 50% across the Snake Plain. Highest gusts with any "shower" or thunderstorm is pushing 40-45 mph. Elsewhere some pockets of wind OUTSIDE of any showers or storms will hit 15-30 mph at times. Temperatures should be a bit warmer vs. Saturday with warmer valley locations pushing 85.

Throughout the upcoming week, the trend is warmer and pretty dry conditions. The Blend of Models has highs for the lower valleys in the 85-95 degree range. That said, we will likely some pockets of high and mid level clouds cross over the state. We cannot rule out this point the potential for virga/light rain, gusty wind, and maybe even a few thunderstorms when this happens. It appears by next weekend we could see another larger low sweeping through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. We should be cooler, breezy, and another chance of appreciable rainfall, depending on the track of that low. There is fairly wide range of temperatures already showing up in the Blend of Models forecast. The coldest end of the range has highs in 55-70 degree range, while the warmer end of range is between 75-85 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions persist today as our shortwave trough from yesterday continues to exit the area. There will be a few lingering isolated showers and storms this afternoon, though it looks like SUN, BYI, and PIH will remain dry with a 10 to 20 percent chance for storm impacts at/near IDA and DIJ. Given the low confidence in a storm directly impacting IDA and/or DIJ will leave any VCTS or PROB30 out of the TAF for now. Afternoon gusts will be around 15 to 20 kts with any of our isolated storms being capable of producing gusts of 30-35 kts and brief drops to MVFR conditions if a storm passes directly over a terminal.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

We should see lingering light showers/virga and isolated thunderstorms through this evening across central and eastern Idaho. The chance of wetting rain is less than 15% EVERYWHERE today, with a 10-50% chance (ensemble model dependent) of outflow gusts over 35 mph. Any real potential will persist over the central mountains (476), the Snake Plain (410), eastern highlands (411), the South Hills/Albion Mountains (427), southeast highlands (413). Thunderstorm potential remains isolated at the moment, meaning we are not looking any potential Red Flag conditions for today. On Monday, a fairly strong dry slots moves across the state. This knocks afternoon humidity down into the single digits and teens for most of the lower elevations. There will be some 15-25% humidity across higher elevations of the central mountains, and along the Montana and Wyoming borders. Gusts of 15-30 mph are possible, with gusts across portions of Zone 425 and across Craters of the Moon pushing 35 mph. The only location where we MIGHT come close to widespread critical fire weather conditions will be across Zone 425 and the far southern end of 410. Later forecast shifts will need to coordinate to see if another round of RED FLAG WARNINGS is needed for Monday. Most of the upcoming week returns to warmer and much drier conditions, at least in terms of afternoon humidity. It does appear we will poor to very poor overnight recovery, especially across portions of 413, 422, and 427 starting tomorrow night. It appears we will see an occasional shot of high and mid level moisture streaming across the state. There is a very low potential (barely 15%) of seeing any rainfall or lightning at all from any of this. We may see another area of low pressure impacting us next week weekend with cooler, breezy, and possibly wet conditions. Stay tuned.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.