textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain expected through tomorrow morning with additional amounts of 0.75-1.5" and locally higher outside of the central mountains

- Flooding is still a possibility across most of eastern Idaho especially in terrain areas and burn scars

- High mountain snow possible across the central mountains and along the Montana border

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

We are expecting more waves of precipitation, especially outside of the central mountains...with the heaviest through tomorrow morning. The "drier" spots still appear to be across the Lava Beds north through the Wood River Valley and Stanley Basin, as well as north toward Challis. Additional amounts of 0.30-0.60" are expected through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, we are still looking at widespread 0.75-1.5" of precipitation, with some spots pushing 2" along and east of I-15. The 90th percentile (high end) of the range in the Blend of Models has the potential for 1.25-2.25", and the absolute highest is still going with another 1.5-3.0", pushing 3.5"+ along and east of I-15 in a few spots. We are also still looking at some snow across the central mountains and along the Montana border. Other than some light snow in the Stanley and Copper Basins, snow accumulation will be limited to above 7500-8000ft. We might even see up to 6" across highest peaks and ranges (above 9500-10000ft). The Blend is trying to sneak some light snow at highest elevations of the South Hills and Albion Mountains. That seems to be a function of a pocket of colder air and heavier precipitation in that particular area. IF we do see accumulations there, it will be short-lived tonight and early Monday morning. Showers will continue Tuesday into Wednesday, with precipitation gradually ending northwest to southeast...as the low slows to almost a crawl as it swings across Utah into Colorado and Wyoming.

A blocking pattern with high pressure over Idaho is expected to build, as a large area of low pressure develops east of the Rockies. Most of the models (ensembles and AI version as well) develop a cutoff low across the Desert Southwest/Baja next week as part of the blocking pattern. The ECMWF wants to actually to stop the low over Colorado, and show it retrograding west back across Utah and Nevada. That seems to be an odd outlier for sure. Highs will gradually warm back into the 60s for valley locations under the ridge.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Widespread light to moderate RA in place across the Snake Plain and southern and eastern highlands with MVFR VIS and CIGS. Expect this to continue into the evening with a brief break expected most terminals for most of the night. If some clearing can be realized, there is a 15-25% chance for IFR CIGS to develop. SHRA redevelops across the region late tonight into Monday morning, with MVFR CIGS continuing. Winds remain light throughout. SUN may fluctuate between downvalley and upvalley flow throughout this system, but will remain below 10kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Rain and high mountain snow will become more widespread through Monday morning. We will see some embedded thunderstorms and heavier bands of rain to enhance some of the higher precipitation totals. The "drier" spots still remain across the Lava Beds in the Magic Valley, north across Zone 422, and then back to the north and east through western Lemhi County. Additional amounts there are in the 0.30-0.60" range through tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, additional amounts of 0.75-1.5" are in the official forecast with some spots along/east of I-15 trying to push 2.0". The 90th percentile (higher end) of the range in the Blend of Models has the potential for 1.25-2.25", and the absolute highest is still going with another 1.5-3.0", pushing 3.5"+ along and east of I-15 in a few spots. Snow is still expected across the central mountains and along the Montana border. While we might see some brief and light accumulation across the Stanley Basin, most accumulations will be above 7500-8000ft and highest above 9500-10000ft. A pocket of colder air around the South Hills and Albion Mountains MAY help produce a period of light accumulation across the highest peaks tonight and early tomorrow morning. The closed low, as it drops into Utah, will keep showers going Tuesday and Wednesday, with a gradual clearing trend from northwest to southeast. High pressure rebuilds over Idaho later next week, but only expect a gradual warming trend back into the 60s for valley locations.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.