textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this evening through tomorrow afternoon with strong winds and brief heavy rainfall

- Gusty winds outside of thunderstorms will continue tonight and Labor Day

- Much cooler Monday with warming temperatures through at least midweek

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms continue early this afternoon near the Salmon River, but will increase from the south later today. Through tonight, we will continue to see coverage increasing from the south, and separately across the central mountains with the low itself. There is a MARGINAL RISK for storms through tonight potentially producing 60+ mph winds. The best chance for gusts over 35 mph are across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and southeast highlands. The potential for severe storms in mainly confined to the southeast highlands, with a few storms elsewhere before midnight producing strong winds. With a lack of moisture really from Marie, rainfall amounts continue to dwindle each forecast. The consensus is that most areas will see anywhere from a couple of hundredths to about 0.15". Across the southeast corner, the Big Holes, and north of Stanley through the Frank Church, up 0.30" is possible. There is a 40-60% chance of exceeding the end of the range in those areas. This is plausible especially if we get strong/severe storms going and/or multiple storms moving over the same area. Any risk for localized flooding/debris is VERY LOW at the moment given the waning rainfall rates and totals. Showers and storms will end late tomorrow afternoon, although a couple of higher resolution models want to pop off a couple of thunderstorms north of Challis and along the Montana border. Outside of thunderstorms, we will see fairly gusty south winds today, switch to the west and southwest tonight and Labor Day. Gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible at times, with gusts above 40 mph across the Arco Desert behind the cold front. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees COLDER tomorrow, 50s and 60s for the valleys. We may see a few low 70s south of the Snake Plain toward the Utah border. With the low crossing the central mountains and the coldest air associated with that, we are still going to see a period of rain and snow above 10,000ft tonight and tomorrow morning!

We will quickly dry out for midweek. The Blend of Models wants to keep us dry, or at least any chance of showers or storms below 10% now through Friday. We will be sandwiched between low pressure to our north and a building high to our south. There is some tropical moisture that works around the ridge and comes in for Thursday and Friday, and believe it not COULD tap into the remnants of Marie for a slight boost. The latter remains to be seem since it will be absorbed into a bigger low offshore, but there does seem to be some connection to other sources of tropical moisture as well. All of that means that don't be surprise to see the Blend of Models eventually increase the chance of showers and storms if these trends continue to show up. Even if we get some moisture in here, highs quickly push back into the 70s and 80s by Wednesday. The better chance of showers and storms should hold off until next weekend as low pressure moves inland and crosses the northern Rockies.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 413 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Main concern tonight is timing of storms both with the front which could affect SUN and ahead of the front which would be affecting the other sites. Confidence of storms on station remains low but impacts would most likely be gusty outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase through this evening, and continue through tomorrow afternoon across central and eastern Idaho. The best chance of rain and thunder will remain across the central mountains (422/475/476) and along/east of I-15 in Zones 410, 411, and 413. Most areas will see anywhere from a couple of hundredths up to around 0.15". Amounts of closer to 0.30" north of Stanley through areas west of U.S 93 (422 and 475), as well as across Zone 413 and the Big Holes. There is a 40-60% chance of exceeding that amount in those zones. It is plausible if we can get some stronger storms going and/or see multiple storms over the same location. It also looks like under the center of the low in the central mountains that a short window of rain and snow is expected above 10,000ft. Storms through tonight are capable of producing gusts over 35 mph and potentially over 60 mph. The most likely areas to see the highest winds will be across the southeast corner extending into the Snake Plain. Strong southerly winds will continue through this evening, before giving way to west and southwest on Labor Day. Gusts of 25-35 mph outside of storms and marginal humidity (dropping to near 15%) will create near-critical to locally critical fire weather conditions across portions of Zones 410, 413, 425, and 427. Similar speeds are expected Monday, if not slightly higher across the Arco Desert, however humidity comes up quite a bit as temperatures will be 10-20 degrees colder than today.

We still are expecting to be dry for midweek. We will need to watch Thursday and Friday to see how much tropical moisture works around the ridge to our south and back into Idaho from the west. There appears to be a decent connection at the moment, even trying to STILL grab some surge from what's left of Marie. At the moment, the Blend of Models is dry or keeping any chance under 10%. Temperatures should rebound quickly by Wednesday, as highs jump back into the 70s and 80s.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.