textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend develops Monday, continue through next Saturday, with little precipitation in sight, sticking to mountain and highland areas.

- Rebuilding ridge of high pressure may provide renewed bouts of low clouds and fog at times this coming week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Satellite imagery shows weak shortwave that dropped pockets of light snow across East Idaho overnight and early this morning has shifted east of the region. Some mid cloud still exists mainly over higher elevations east of I-15 early this afternoon, but the trend is toward slow dissipation through the rest of today. There is not a lot of low level moisture to work with, and model soundings support clear skies for tonight. Model probabilities are low confidence with less than a 20% chance of stratus and fog development overnight, so cautiously kept out of forecast grids. Sometimes persistence pays off, but the gamble to maintain a clear forecast looks like the best bet tonight. That said, localized impacts are still possible, just difficult to pinpoint where and to what extent. Next shortwave feature crosses East Idaho Monday and Monday night. Soundings at this time support just an increase in mid and high cloud cover, and there should be enough of it to prevent stratus formation in the lower elevations. There is not enough moisture or dynamics associated with this feature to produce any precipitation. Have slightly adjusted temperatures downward again in the Stanley Basin for Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Upper ridge briefly rebuilds for Tuesday, but another quick shortwave shifts through on Wednesday. The NBM has been waffling back and forth about the potential for very light precipitation across some higher elevation areas. Confidence remains extremely low, and the latest NBM is only depicting extremely light PoPs in some portions of the central mountains. The GFS depicts a repeat on Thursday, with stronger potential for the ridge to flatten for potentially better chances at moisture for the weekend. Meanwhile, the ECMWF strengthens the ridge into the weekend. In general, the expectation is for dry conditions throughout the week with a warming trend. On days where the ridge axis manages to move overhead, we could see the potential for low stratus and patchy fog, and that could have some impact on temperatures for any particular day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1005 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

At least for now, there is some light at the end of tunnel for a ton of stratus and/or fog. With the current storm dropping along the Divide, it appears we are seeing enough wind and dry air dropping in from the north to erode most of it. There is still some low clouds expected to hang up around PIH, IDA, and DIJ to teeter between a scattered to overcast MVFR/IFR deck through mid to late afternoon...especially at DIJ. The question is will it return on a widespread basis tonight and Monday morning. The higher resolution models say no, but they do hint at some potential pockets of low clouds around...especially closer to sunrise at the coldest part of the day. Is confidence enough to drop it completely during that period? Not a chance(pun intended). The higher resolution ensembles do paint at 10% chance or less of seeing something redevelop. We did include a hint of low clouds and fog at all TAF sites EXCEPT SUN, which should remain VFR. If anything, even if we don't see anything substantial with the cold air in place and overnight pattern setting up...we wouldn't be shocked to see localized fog/stratus impacts those airports at some point. We would love to be proved wrong, but sometimes a persistence- type forecast pays off until it doesn't.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.