textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold conditions continue through Friday with convective snow showers mainly in the mountains with a slight chance of mixed rain and snow showers in the valleys.

- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1253 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Satellite imagery shows broad upper low across Idaho/Utah today. Wrap around moisture working around the northern portions of the low in cold pool continuing to fire showers across East Idaho. Temperatures should warm enough this afternoon to support mix of rain/snow at lower elevations, otherwise expect primarily mix of snow/graupel, with light 1-2" accumulations in heavier showers at higher elevations, though a few ranges across the central mountains show some accumulations could reach as high as 3-4" if the showers keep redeveloping over the same areas. Showers taper overnight, but return again on Thursday, albeit with slightly less coverage and with slightly warmer temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Long wave trof pushes east of the area Friday afternoon with a cut off low over the desert southwest moving out as well. This will open the door to the west for an encroaching upper ridge of high pressure. Considerable agreement across the guidance space including the multiple suites of ensembles through at least Saturday. Guidance agreement begins to devolve slightly heading into early next week as a shortwave trough erodes the high amplified ridge axis overhead. This shortwave will bring low precipitation chances back to the area, if even briefly but precipitation amounts shouldn't be significant.

Temperatures that will be warming through the weekend, will plateau just above normals Monday/Tuesday with the ridge breaking down temporarily. After Tuesday, however temperatures are expected to climb through the balance of the week. The upper-level ridge will re- establish, building in from the south and amplifying our warming potential. The warmest temperatures of next week look to be just beyond the current long term period, where the NBM Records monitor is showing some very early potential at challenging the daily high record for Pocatello and perhaps a few record high min temperatures. This will be something we'll be monitoring going into next week, especially with the amount of mid and high elevation snowpack still to melt off this spring.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Overnight radiative cooling with continued isolated shower activity will lead to a risk of stratus and marginal VFR CIGs developing late tonight, with the likeliest places KPIH and KBYI. It occurred at KBYI on Wed morning and could spread farther eastward tonight. Yet another round of SHRA/SHSN and, according to SPC, TSRA, should occur. The showers will slide through from northwest to southeast, so KSUN will start it off with showers in the area by 03/12Z. Daytime heating will help trigger a greater coverage of activity by 03/20Z at the other airdromes. KSUN has probabilities in the afternoon reaching a level where they are a predominate weather element, and with the temperature and dewpoint depression allowing for -SHRASN. Everywhere else, only VCSH is mentioned. Expect KSUN to stay VFR during the event, at least at this time. The triggering is not caused by much in the way of an active front, with a lot of wind expected to be variable and light. Only the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley airports should reach the 10KT to 15KT range, mostly during the afternoon and early evening.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.