textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon thunderstorm chances continue to dwindle

- Increasing HeatRisk issues Friday and Saturday as highs push to around 100

- Critical to near-critical fire conditions possible the next few days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger this morning, before we see some resurgence this afternoon. Higher chances are similar locations as Wednesday. There is a 30-70% chance for gusts over 35 mph, potentially peaking at 45-50 mph. The deeper push of monsoon moisture is moving away, but some decent downpours are possible again through this evening. One last gasp for thunderstorms is expected Friday with isolated storms across the central mountains, eastern and southeastern highlands, and across the Snake Plain. Storms will be dry, although the chance for outflow gusts over 35 mph is down to 10-40%. Temperatures should be warmer both days, with some spots pushing 100 Friday afternoon.

A prolonged stretch of dry weather begins this weekend, as high pressure is strongest on Saturday, then giving way next week to a dry and breezy westerly flow. We will likely see some low to mid 100s Saturday. HeatRisk impacts will peak Saturday, and we may need at least a HEAT ADVISORY for Saturday...if not both Friday and Saturday. With the ridge breaking down and transitioning to westerly flow, winds will likely be strongest Saturday and Sunday. We MAY be approaching thresholds for Lake Wind conditions on American Falls Reservoir and a Wind Advisory across portions of the Snake Plain. Initially highs will drop back into the 80s and low 90s early next week, which is actually AVERAGE for the first week of August. It does appear though we push back into the low/mid 90s by midweek.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 403 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

More showers and thunderstorms are forecasting during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will have the potential for gusts of 30-40kts today, along with a brief downpour. We did include PROB30 at BYI, IDA, PIH, and DIJ to account for this. We should showers and storms diminishing before midnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture continues to be tough to fully push out of here, as it now appears we may even see a few storms on Friday. The overall chance is dwindling though as deeper moisture is on its way out of here. The pattern today looks similar, spatially, as the best chance of storms will be across higher terrain. There will likely be some spillover into the Snake Plain along outflow boundaries and stronger storms holding together. There is some potential for some decent downpours, but it doesn't appear as widespread and likely as Wednesday. There is a 30-70% chance for gusts over 35 mph today, peaking at 45-50 mph. Those chances are even lower tomorrow, at 10-40% as coverage becomes more isolated.

Temperatures will continue to warm up, with highs peaking Saturday. Valley temperatures will push 95-105, with mountain temperatures in the 80s. Very dry air moves as the monsoon moisture shifts away from us. We are expecting a classic breakdown of the ridge after a prolonged period of southwest flow and monsoon driven thunderstorms. This takes place Sunday, with strong westerly flow developing and locking into place for next week. This will drop temperatures initially early next week, BUT dry air remains in place. Winds will be increasing for the Saturday-Monday timeframe, but remain elevated beyond that. Looking at the potential for Red Flag conditions, we will pushing that today with borderline scattered thunderstorms across Zones 413 and 427. Coverage will be isolated tomorrow, so no issues expected other than maybe holdovers. We will likely see critical fire weather conditions across the central mountains, much of the Snake Plain and across Zone 411 on Saturday. The potential spreads south into the Magic Valley and pockets of Zones 413 and 427 on Sunday due to strong winds and very low humidity. Critical to near-critical conditions are possible almost daily next week.

AIR QUALITY

Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Air quality alerts were re-issued for Blaine, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Cassia Counties for the next 24 hours due to proximity and ideal trajectory of smoke from wildfires.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ051- 055>057-073>075.