textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings for the Central Mountains and the Snake River plain/Shoshone region Monday afternoon into early evening due to low relative humidity and breezy winds.

- Very small chance for an isolated (virga) shower or storm Monday afternoon, mainly in the South Hills.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for the next few days. Expect improvement and the air quality advisory for Custer County has expired.

- Major pattern change with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday into Saturday with significant cooling.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Main impact this afternoon and evening isolated thunderstorm development in mainly the southern mountains once again. Areas of smoke still exist but not as significant and the air quality advisory for Custer County has been discontinued. Hot conditions continue through Tuesday with low elevation highs remaining in the 90s then a significant cooling trend sets in on Wednesday. Biggest impact in the long term is an upper level trof approaching with strong southwesterly flow ahead of it drawing in tons of moisture and have very high chances of precipitation as this trof moves through Thursday as well as Friday. Will be some potential for flash flooding especially over recent burn scars should any of the heavier showers reach those. The chance for showers and thunderstorms remain Saturday through next Monday but much lesser precipitation expected. Highs in the 60s mountains and 70s low elevations Thursday and Friday rising to the 70s and 80s Saturday into next Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 448 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Expect the 20 to 25 knot wind gusts at DIJ, SUN, PIH and IDA to diminish after 03Z. Will continue to have widespread VFR although did put 6 miles at SUN in smoke. Low confidence in dropping below that however. Expect wind gusts to increase after 18Z once again on Tuesday but more in the 15 to 20 knot range about 5 knots of so weaker than today's gusts. Will have continued VFR conditions other than maybe some 4 to 5 miles in smoke but low confidence in that occurring.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions continue today due to the combination of low minimum RH values and gusty winds. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect today for Fire Weather Zones 410, 425, 475, and 476, where critically low RH values and wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are anticipated. We also expect isolated pockets of Red Flag conditions to materialize elsewhere, as well, but not widespread enough for RFW issuance. Winds will decrease tomorrow and we therefore do not anticipate any RFWs for tomorrow.

A deepening trough along the Pacific coast will continue to flatten the ridge of high pressure over Idaho, resulting in a gradual cool- down through late this week under increasing clouds. Daytime highs will return to around normal or just below by the middle of this week, turning cooler than normal late week. While isolated storms are forecast across the southeast highlands the next couple afternoons, the main monsoon surge will arrive late Thursday and continue through Saturday. This will raise humidities and provide much-needed rain, which could be heavy at times, but also introduce the risk of lightning. On Wednesday, we will likely need to coordinate the next round of RFWs for scattered thunderstorms on Thursday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-425- 475-476.