textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms linger in East Idaho this afternoon.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the eastern Magic Valley on Monday. Near critical fire weather conditions for most others.

- Heating up and staying mostly dry and breezy for the better part of the week ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The shortwave trough that moved through the area yesterday continues to make its way eastward today. And while most of us stay dry today, we are seeing a few isolated showers and storms popping up in the Central Mountains, upper Snake River Plain towards Island Park, and the South Hills. Gusts from any isolated storm will be around 40 mph with breezy afternoon winds outside of storms in the 20 to 30 mph range. We begin our warming trend today, too. It won't be quite as noticeable yet as we're just a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, and then we keep warming a few degrees each afternoon. Monday will be a very dry day with breezy winds gusting 20 to 30 mph in parts of the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain with a few pockets gusting to 35 mph. It will be breezy across the American Falls Reservoir, but it is more of a west wind than a southwest wind, so will not be issuing a Lake Wind Advisory.

Highs will make it into the low 90s in a few spots as early as Tuesday afternoon, but Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s in the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. The NBM shows a 60 to 90 percent chance of highs exceeding 90 degrees from Burley north to Carey and east to Fort Hall and down through our valley towns in the South Hills and Southeastern Highlands. It's about a 20 to 40 percent chance of the same from Blackfoot north to Rexburg. The ECMWF and GFS do show a few weak disturbances passing through eastern Idaho during the week, but actual precipitation chances look very slim. Models are showing a strong low dropping into the PNW next Saturday and moving into Idaho on Sunday that could bring some measurable precipitation, but that's still a week away and we will just watch and wait for details to get clearer as we go through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 509 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the period for all TAF sites. There will be some lingering FEW to SCT clouds this early evening before skies clear out for the most part overnight. Winds currently are slightly breezy with gusts of around 20 kts for mainly just PIH. Expect winds to drop off for all sites tonight. Winds will pick back up with gusts of around 20 kts tomorrow afternoon for IDA, DIJ and PIH. Skies will be mostly clear tomorrow, though there will likely be FEW to SCT mid level clouds over the mountains near most sites tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

We begin to dry out today as yesterday's shortwave trough that came through continues to move eastward. Min RHs this afternoon fall into the upper teens to low 20s in portions of Fire Weather Zones 422, 425, 475, and 476. It's also a bit breezy at times this afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. And while most of us stay dry today, we are seeing a few isolated showers and storms popping up in the Central Mountains, upper Snake River Plain towards Island Park, and the South Hills. Any isolated storm could produce wind gusts around 40 mph. We get even drier and warmer on Monday as wind gusts pick up to 25 to 35 mph in FWZ 425, so a RED FLAG WARNING has been issued due to low RHs in the single digits to low teens and these breezy winds. FWZ 410, 413, and 427 will see near-critical conditions also due to very low RHs and breezy winds, but the breezy winds aren't quite to RFW criteria. However, the main concern in 413 and 427 will be if we see any activity get going from hiding holdovers from yesterday's lightning.

We will spend most of this week at near-critical fire weather conditions due to low RHs and breezy winds, but it looks like we may not actually reach RFW criteria again until Wednesday or Thursday as winds begin to pick up. Wind gusts will be significantly stronger Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as our longer range models are picking up on another system moving into Eastern Idaho. We will have to wait until we get a bit closer to next weekend to see how models handle this system and how it may play out.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ425.