textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog and low cloudiness this morning.

- Possible light shower activity from Rexburg northeastward.

- Next winter storm arrives Monday/Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today through Sun night...weak embedded trough moving through the longwave upper level ridge may trigger some showers in the northeast corner of the forecast area, but otherwise is having little effect on the weather forecast. The upper level ridge allowed a moist boundary layer to form, and this continues this morning with widespread stratus below 1000ft AGL, even penetrating into the central Idaho mountains in the Wood and Lost River valleys, to the high points in all those areas, such as Chilly, Galena, and Gilmore. There is fog, but not at the intensity of yesterday morning, so likely no Dense Fog Advisory unless webcams indicate more development later this morning. Hourly NBM data indicates at least some partial clearing for the Wood River valley, the Snake River plain, and the eastern Magic Valley for the afternoon. This is less clear for Teton Valley. Current indications are that the lower elevations are seeing lower moisture content tonight, and that should carry into Sat with much less issue. Expect sunny and much warmer conditions for both Sat afternoon and Sun.

Should skies clear, temperatures will warm into the 40s at the lower elevation; but if the stratus does not break, it could be 5 to 10 degrees colder in the heavily populated zones of the forecast area. The clearer skies overnight should lead to colder temperatures for the southeast half of the forecast area.

With the approach of a trough that is coming in from the west, wind will be on the increase, which also helps with the fog and stratus issues. This should start Sat afternoon and continue for Sun afternooon, with overnight decreases.

Mon through Thu...The upper level trough, once expected to start widespread precipitation by Sun, is now slowed down in the forecast to have that occur Mon and Mon night, with Mon night having the heavier precipitation period. It appears to linger into Tue/Tue night, then there is a risk for the remainder of this period at around the 20 to 50 percent risk level for each 6 hour period. Temperatures are expected to be even warmer for Mon and Tue, then cool down to normal highs for Wed. So it should be primarily rain at Snake River plain-type elevations, with a rain and snow mix up to 7500ft elevation. With the winter storm overhead, wind stays in the breezy to windy category.

No cluster information was available at issue time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions continue across the region this morning under the influence of high pressure and surface based inversions. Weak shortwave feature moving across the region is helping to erode some of the stratus in the Magic and Treasure valleys up stream of East Idaho, but the belief is that the stratus may be take some time to dissipate. When it does, it may be rapid. Model soundings continue to support improvement into MVFR/VFR by tonight, but there is always the question of whether or not fog/stratus could return prior to sunrise.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.