textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier air in place will not prevent dry thunderstorms today and Monday

- Monsoon moisture increases starting Monday evening. More widespread storms Monday evening through Wednesday.

- Warmer temperatures through Monday will increase heat-related issues across the Magic Valley, Snake River Plain, and South Hills. Many low elevations around 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated high elevation thunderstorms this evening mostly in the central mountains and southern hills. Have heat advisories in effect Monday in several areas with many high temperatures expected to be near 100. Humidity a little elevated as well. MOnsoonal flow elevates with a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday across the entirety of southeast Idaho. Will see cooler but still very warm high temperatures with the expected cloud cover. Coverage will decrease Thursday through next Sunday but still have at least isolated coverage in the grids with temperatures rising once again. Some areas will likely see wetting rains Tuesday and Wednesday but most areas will likely not see extensive rainfall. Could see some breezier conditions by next weekend, but very low confidence that far out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with generally mostly sunny skies and light winds. There remains a chance, albeit low, for an isolated shower or storm to develop near KSUN or in the higher terrain around KPIH, KIDA and KBYI which could cause some gusty and erratic winds around these terminals with any outflow boundaries. Probabilities remain too low to include any mention of this in the forecast but will continue to monitor nevertheless. Similar conditions appear likely for Monday across eastern Idaho.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1254 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Drier surface will remain in place through Monday, HOWEVER, we are still seeing enough moisture around for isolated dry storms later today and again Monday afternoon and evening. Expect development today across the central mountains extending from around the Wood River Valley (422) through Gilmore Summit (476). That batch of storms eventually extends along the Montana border in Zone 411. The other area we are watching is Zone 413 and 427 south of the Snake Plain. There is potential for strong outflow winds over 35 mph, especially farther north where the chance is up to 70%. Down south, the potential only tops out around 30%. Outside of storms, gusts up to 25 mph in some spots is forecasts. The same areas are forecast to see isolated dry storms, although we might see a few more storms developing north from Soda Springs to Driggs. The chance for stronger outflow winds is lower, but still NOT ZERO. The other concern may be heat-related issues for crews as more valley locations are seeing highs today in the mid to upper 90s, and even higher with some locations top out just above 100 tomorrow.

Monsoon moisture increases again starting tomorrow evening and continues through the rest of the week. This will basically be a repeat of this past week where we see daily shower and thunderstorm chances, and afternoon temperatures highly dependent on the amount of cloud cover on any given day.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ051>059.