textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper-level ridge will remain in control of our weather pattern through late week, supporting a prolonged period of dry and tranquil conditions. - Daytime temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages throughout the week, pushing lower-elevation highs toward 60F.

- Differences remain amongst model solutions regarding the upper-level pattern come late week, but there is increasing confidence in mostly dry conditions through early weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

East Idaho remains under the influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, but upstream satellite imagery shows a deep North Pacific closed low with multiple shortwave features rotating around its base toward the PacNW. The first feature moving through Oregon today will bring mid- and high-level cloud cover to the region. A sprinkle or stray flurry is possible tonight across higher elevations to the north, but no measurable precipitation is expected. The second feature moves through Monday night with slightly better moisture content. Isolated to scattered light showers are possible north of a line from Ketchum to Driggs, mainly concentrated over the higher terrain. 90th percentile QPF amounts max out between 0.10 and 0.15 inches across the Sawtooths, with ensemble means running less than 0.05 inches. The main impact will be a minor reduction in daytime temperatures heading into Tuesday, dropping about 5 degrees.

Moving into the latter half of the week, the upper ridge rebuilds ahead of a developing split-flow system off the West Coast. Deterministic runs continue to trend toward digging the southern branch well south, leaving eastern Idaho under strengthened dry southerly flow. Ensemble cluster uncertainty remains regarding how far inland the northern stream trough can push by Friday. Consequently, ensemble means and the NBM still introduce light precipitation to the central mountains as early as Friday night, spreading across the remainder of East Idaho by Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1023 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions continue today with another round of mid and upper level clouds expected to come through the area later this evening/tonight thanks to a weak shortwave feature. Winds will be just a bit stronger this afternoon than the last few days, but overall remaining light, around 10 to 15kts.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.