textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty west to southwest winds crank up again on today and expand into the Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Highlands.

- Cool overnight temperatures tonight and especially Wednesday night, with Frost Advisories/Freeze Warnings likely needed for the valley growing zones Wednesday night.

- Drying and warming trend along with periods of breezy conditions later in the week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Temperatures today stay on the cool side as a reinforcing mid/upper-level shortwave pivots south across MT/ID on the backside of the broader trough making its way east across the Northern Plains. Afternoon highs will remain about 10 degrees below average, reaching the 60s in the valleys and 40s/50s mountains. This shortwave will support some shower/thunderstorm chances (20-50 percent) over the Central Mountains east into the Island Park area and Eastern Highlands where better forcing and moisture align. West winds will also crank up again on Wednesday, gusting up to 50 mph, in the tightened pressure/height gradient ahead of this shortwave and attendant surface cold front. A wind advisory is in place today for the Snake Plain, Arco Desert, Shoshone region, Eastern Magic Valley, Southern Hills/Albion Mountains, Raft River region, and the Marsh/Albion Highlands.

Cold temperatures are on tap for Wednesday night into Thursday morning as surface high pressure builds into the area with clearing skies and light winds overnight leading to good radiational cooling of the post-frontal airmass. Freeze Watches are in place for our lower elevation growing zones where lows are forecast to drop solidly into the 30s. The interstate corridor from Burley to Pocatello to Idaho Falls remains slightly warmer with mid to upper 30s forecast. Probabilities of temps lower than 36F are around 35 percent at Burley, 45% and Pocatello, and 65% at Idaho Falls per latest NBM guidance. Elsewhere across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, low to mid 30s look to be the rule, with probabilities of temps less than 36F exceeding 70 percent over most of this area. Looking at probabilities of less than 32F, the highest values in the lower elevation growing zones extend from the upper Snake Plain to west of Blackfoot and the Arco Desert, where probabilities reach as high as 50-75 percent. Those with gardens or other sensitive vegetation will want to take protective measures Wednesday night.

A warming trend starts Thursday as upper ridging builds off the West Coast, leading to rising heights locally beneath northwest flow aloft. Will see temperatures rebound to near normal on Thursday, before climbing above normal Friday though the weekend into early next week. Predominantly dry conditions look to prevail Thursday through early next week. A shortwave trough dropping through the northwest flow aloft may glance the area in the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe, which could bring shower chances to the Divide and Island Park area. Better moisture and precip chances currently appear to remain east of the area, but seeing quite a bit of spread in ensemble clusters with the depth and westward extent of this feature so stay tuned. Afternoon breezes pick back up Friday and Saturday, which combined with warming and drying, will bring some renewed at least low-end fire weather concerns to parts of the Snake Plain, Eastern Magic Valley, and South Hills.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 517 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Skies are mostly clear with overall light winds currently. However, models continue to show winds increasing quickly this morning with an approaching wave that will bring gusty winds for all TAF sites along with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly to our northern areas. Have continued to mention vicinity showers for IDA and DIJ for tomorrow afternoon as that wave moves through the area. Tstm chances for IDA is less than 15%. There is about a 40 percent chance for TSTMS at DIJ. So, have continued the prob30 for tstms for DIJ. Expect downvalley winds at SUN this morning to switch to a westerly crosswind tomorrow morning and be rather gusty through much of the day. Winds drop off quickly early tomorrow evening for all TAF sites. Clouds in our northern areas will clear out quickly as well tomorrow evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Today expect strong winds gusts (35 to 50 mph) with slightly decreased RHs (min RHs of 20 to 50%) with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for Fire Weather zones 475, 476 and 411 with a passing short wave. Expect gusty winds today as well with gusts of 30 to 50 mph likely. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s today.

Look for drying and warming trends along with breezy conditions Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will rise back to the 70s and 80s for daytime highs. Min RHs will drop back below 25% across the area for mountain areas and below 15% for the Snake Plain, Eastern Magic Valley and our southwest areas (fire weather zones 410, 425, 427, and portions of 413). Friday and Saturday afternoon winds combined with low relative humidity, higher temperatures, and critical to near critical fuels will bring some renewed at least low-end fire weather concerns to parts of Fire Weather zones 410, 425 and 427.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>058-062. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for IDZ051>054.