textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing wind gusts and rain/snow showers return today.

- Winter Weather Advisories out for Central Mountains, Eastern Highlands, and Bear River Range Monday evening to Tuesday evening.

- Active pattern continues through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

A pair of shortwave troughs will move through the region this week. The first shortwave will impact us tonight into Tuesday. We may see a few isolated showers today, but most of the precipitation will hold off until tonight. Breezy southerly winds will create downslope conditions across the lower Snake Plain as well, so Pocatello, Blackfoot and perhaps Idaho Falls may not see much precipitation with this first system. Winds will increase throughout the day and into the night with a cold front expected to pass through central and east Idaho late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Chances look pretty good that we may see wind advisory levels across parts of south Idaho and perhaps into the Snake Plain with models supporting a 40-70 percent probability depending on the location. With the stronger winds expected later in the day will allow the day shift to make the call on wind headlines. Snow levels with this first event are expected to start above 6000- 6500 feet before falling to valley floors behind the front. Although, models seem to be indicating a good deal of drier air working into the region behind the front. Think most of the widespread precipitation will be ahead of the front. We have winter weather advisories in effect for portions of the central mountains and eastern highlands where 4 to 8 inches is likely below 7500 feet and up to 1 foot above 7500 feet. With blowing and drifting snow likely, could see some places approaching warning levels, such as Fremont county where the better accumulations of 6 inches or greater with gusty winds could potentially warrant a warning.

The next system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system has the better potential for snow on the valley floors as an ill- defined low pressure system is expected to move through eastern Idaho or northern Utah. 850mb wet bulb zero temps are expected to remain cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow. Am concerned about southerly, downsloping winds once again which could limit snow totals in the Snake Plain. But this system may have a better wrap- around or convergence event later Wednesday or Wednesday night. Or the track of the low may stay across northern Utah and the southerly winds may not materialize. Potentially we could see up to 4 inches in the valleys with amounts up to a foot on upper slopes and ridges. Important to reiterate a lot of uncertainty with this system because of the track of the storm is unknown so amounts may move significantly up or down as we get a better handle on this second storm. Winds Tuesday night don't look particularly strong but could become gusty later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Weather continues to look unsettled for late week with scattered showers possible because of a broad upper level trough overhead. Although at this point impacts look relatively minimal. Models are trending towards a ridge developing for the weekend, likely resulting in mostly dry weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 306 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Expect vfr conditions today with breezy conditions developing at BYI, PIH and IDA this afternoon. SUN will likely switch from downvalley to upvalley as well. Most impacts at TAF sites will hold off till later tonight or Tuesday. SUN will probably see worsening conditions through the night tonight with IFR likely by Tuesday morning.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for IDZ060-063-064-066. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for IDZ071>074.