textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow begins tomorrow afternoon and continues through Monday night

- The first round of precipitation mainly impacts the central mountains and eastern highlands

- Cooler and occasional rain and snow lasts throughout the upcoming week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1227 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

We should remain through tomorrow morning across most of central and eastern Idaho. The leading edge of rain and snow pushes into the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges during the afternoon and quickly shifts east tomorrow evening and night. Before sunrise Tuesday, we will some lingering snow across the eastern and southeast highlands as well as a few showers closer to the Montana border. The front arrives in the central mountains tomorrow evening and should clear the state before Noon Monday. We will see winds bump up, especially and along behind the front. While that could produce some smaller pockets of blowing snow in the mountains, no real impacts are otherwise anticipated from the wind alone. Snow levels peak ahead of the front at 6500-7500ft, and slowly drop through Monday. We do see enough cold air for MAYBE some light snow or flurries for some lower elevations later Monday afternoon and night. However, it is likely for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley that precipitation ends before any chance of seeing a switch to snow. It would some of the mountain valleys where snow lingers a bit longer than any potential snow will happen.

The pattern still favors the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges, plus the eastern highlands especially at and just above pass level. Outside of those areas, expect anywhere from a couple of hundredths to maybe 0.15" of moisture including higher elevations. We may closer to 0.25" in the Teton Valley thanks to a potential convergence band dropping southeast across the valley. For the eastern highlands (including Island Park), the latest forecast has trended toward 0.25-0.60" with locally higher amounts along the border adjacent to Yellowstone and the Tetons. That puts down anywhere from a dusting to 3" across lower elevations and the Big Holes. Over Raynolds and Targhee Passes, we could see a total of 2-5" of snow in 36-48 hours.SFor the highest elevations, we are potentially looking at over 6". Some of the ensembles and AI versions of the models are much wetter, producing up to 1" with the high end of the range, in the higher elevations around Island Park. Our Blend of Models with the highest end are producing 1-2" in the same areas. That seems out of reach given the pattern, and have much higher confidence in highest amounts barely reaching 1". For the Sawtooths and surrounding mountains, the official forecast has 0.20-0.70"...highest along the spine of the Sawtooths. Locally higher amounts are possible on the Boise side. That puts snowfall for Banner and Galena Summits around 3-6". Some of the high end range amounts in that area for the ensembles, etc. are hitting 1.2-1.3". For our Blend of Models, the high end amounts are pushing 1.0-1.2". Our confidence is obviously highest within the range of the official forecast, but there is some credence along the spine and west side of the Sawtooths to hit closer to 1.0".

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

It looks like another storm slides through later Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rest of the week seeing occasional precipitation as general low pressure settles in over the West. There is really no skill in this type of pattern as smaller embedded lows will determine when and where we see more rain and snow. The Blend of Models is trending toward most of the moisture across the South Hills/Albion Mountain, southeast and eastern highlands Tuesday and Wednesday if there is any kind of trend midweek. Keyes

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue across east Idaho through the next 18 to 24 hours. High pressure will gradually weaken overnight as the next system approaches. Satellite imagery shows the next system just coming on-shore over Washington, and this system will spill another round of mid to high clouds across East Idaho tonight into early Sunday. Winds will drop off slightly overnight but become southerly by morning ahead of the next system. Winds will gradually start picking up by tomorrow afternoon (gusts of 20 to 25 kts) with clouds continuing to drop. Don't expect rainshowers until early Sunday evening for SUN with MVFR CIGS likely. Showers and MVFR conditions are not expected for other TAF sites until Sunday evening around midnight, if not slightly later.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.