textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Prolonged Quiet Weather Period: High pressure and dry air will keep eastern Idaho completely dry with minimal cloud cover through the upcoming weekend and into early October.

- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s through the weekend.

- No Fall-Like Weather in Sight: High confidence exists for above-normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation extending through the first full week of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High pressure in place through the next week for generally dry conditions. Sunday appears to be the warmest day of the period, and temperatures could approach or exceed record highs in a few locations. With Monday in reach of the shorter-term models, we are seeing increased signal for moisture rotating north around the center of the high parked over Utah by that afternoon. Ensembles still look fairly dry, with NBM following along with no QPF generated anywhere within the CWA. We have to bump up to the Max percentiles in the NBM to see any QPF generated for Monday and Monday night, but that lends some credence to the signal. Given that some of these models have been persistent with the precipitation chances, we would not be surprised at this point to see the forecast moisten up through the weekend for the Monday time frame, but the chances will likely be isolated and light. The ridge does rebound, so dry conditions will round out the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Seeing some high level clouds across the area today but these will be of little impact. It's just a change from the mainly clear skies of the past few days but VFR will remain through the period once again regardless. Winds remain light into Saturday as high pressure builds over the region through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern well into next week, resulting in a prolonged period of warm and dry conditions. Temperatures will run above climatological norms through late next week and likely beyond, peaking at around 10 degrees above normal this weekend. Minimum humidity will be lowest on Sunday, with widespread 15 to 20 percent min RH values and they will likely stay around this range for much of next week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.