textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Building Weekend Ridge: Upper-level ridge will become established across the Intermountain West into early next week, supporting a prolonged period of dry and tranquil conditions. - Warmer Temperatures Coming: Temperatures will climb 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, pushing lower-elevation highs toward 60F.

- Forecast Uncertainty Late Next Week: Model solutions currently differ regarding the upper-level pattern during the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

Satellite imagery shows East Idaho under ridge axis with weak shortwave departing to the east and strong closed low in the north Pacific. Most of East Idaho is clear but pockets of low clouds still linger in the northwest stretches of the Arco Desert towards the Divide. A series of shortwave features eject inland Sunday and again Monday night/Tuesday. The latter feature may have the best chance at producing a few light showers across northern zones, along with a drop of a few degrees in daytime highs by Tuesday. Otherwise high pressure remains in control with temperatures remaining above normal for much of the week. Looking ahead to the potential pattern chance late in the week or next weekend, deterministic models have trended toward development of a deep split flow pattern late in the week, delaying inland push of the northern stream trough. Precipitation now looks to hold off until Friday night or Saturday, though a few ensemble members introduce precipitation as early as Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 935 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

Satellite analysis indicates cirriform clouds spilling over into the upper level ridge. NBM guidance places it at FL180 to FL250, so some SCT130 to SCT180 should work for most of the time the clouds are present. Do not expect any CIG, and no clouds lower during this 24 hour period. Shortly afterward, some lower clouds and CIGs are likely as shortwave approaches. No impact to VSBY expected. Wind remains light, with sustained at 15KT during the afternoon for some locations the maximum. Directions are mostly slope-valley effect driven.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.