textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper-level ridge will remain in control of our weather pattern through late week, supporting a prolonged period of dry and tranquil conditions. - Daytime temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages throughout the week, pushing lower-elevation highs toward 60F.

- Differences remain amongst model solutions regarding the upper-level pattern come late week, but there is increasing confidence in mostly dry conditions through early weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

East Idaho remains under the influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, but upstream satellite imagery shows a deep North Pacific closed low with multiple shortwave features rotating around its base toward the PacNW. The first feature moving through Oregon today will bring mid- and high-level cloud cover to the region. A sprinkle or stray flurry is possible tonight across higher elevations to the north, but no measurable precipitation is expected. The second feature moves through Monday night with slightly better moisture content. Isolated to scattered light showers are possible north of a line from Ketchum to Driggs, mainly concentrated over the higher terrain. 90th percentile QPF amounts max out between 0.10 and 0.15 inches across the Sawtooths, with ensemble means running less than 0.05 inches. The main impact will be a minor reduction in daytime temperatures heading into Tuesday, dropping about 5 degrees.

Moving into the latter half of the week, the upper ridge rebuilds ahead of a developing split-flow system off the West Coast. Deterministic runs continue to trend toward digging the southern branch well south, leaving eastern Idaho under strengthened dry southerly flow. Ensemble cluster uncertainty remains regarding how far inland the northern stream trough can push by Friday. Consequently, ensemble means and the NBM still introduce light precipitation to the central mountains as early as Friday night, spreading across the remainder of East Idaho by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 412 PM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There are mid and upper level clouds coming through the area now and will continue through the evening because of a weak shortwave feature. Very weak high pressure will build in tonight into tomorrow morning. MVFR VIS cannot be ruled out for IDA tomorrow morning but has less than a 10 percent chance for fog and/or mist to develop. Winds are backing off now and are expected to remain light overall tonight and most of tomorrow, maybe a slight increase up to 7 to 10 kts for PIH, IDA, and DIJ in the afternoon. Winds will be stronger tomorrow night into Tuesday with another shortwave feature moving through the area.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.