textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief Clearing Tonight, Mid/High Clouds Thursday: Clearing this evening will be brief as a weak shortwave clips to our north late tonight, spreading mid-to-high level cloud cover across the region by Thursday morning.

- Isolated Thursday Mountain Showers: High-resolution REFS guidance indicates isolated shower chances across the Central Mountains and Southeast Highlands Thursday afternoon, but the vast majority of eastern Idaho remains dry.

- Building Weekend Ridge: Models remain steadfast on establishing an upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West Friday through early next week, guaranteeing prolonged dry and tranquil conditions. Temperatures will run near normal through Friday before climbing 7 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, pushing lower- elevation highs toward 60F.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper-level low over northern Utah slowly translating south and east, with associated cloud cover gradually eroding from north to south across eastern Idaho. A few light sprinkles and passing showers beneath the thicker cloud decks produced only trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation at best. Clearing conditions will continue through late afternoon and early evening, though this window will be relatively short-lived.

A weak shortwave trough swinging across the panhandle will direct another round of mid-to-high level clouds over the forecast area toward daybreak Thursday. High-resolution REFS guidance depicts isolated light precipitation developing Thursday afternoon across the Central Mountains and into the Southeast Highlands in proximity to the track of the wave. However, low-level moisture remains limited, and the vast majority of the region will remain dry.

As the passing shortwave departs to the east Thursday night, operational models and ensemble clusters remain in strong consensus that an upper-level ridge will amplify over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. This ridge will remain firmly anchored over the Intermountain West to close out the workweek, throughout the upcoming weekend, and into the middle of next week. Strong subsidence will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy and maintain completely dry conditions across eastern Idaho, with no organized or impactful weather systems in sight through the 7-day period.

Temperatures over the next couple of days will hover near seasonal climatology. While overnight low temperatures have been running slightly above normal due to periodic cloud insulation, daytime maximums will stay within a few degrees of early November averages through Friday. A notable warming trend takes hold over the weekend beneath rising 500 mb heights. Daytime highs will climb 7 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms by Sunday and persist into early next week. This will push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60F across lower- elevation valleys of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, providing pleasant, unseasonably mild fall weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with light winds. Mid and high level clouds in place currently should briefly diminish this evening and into the first part of the overnight before another round of mid/high level clouds move in as a weak upper system swings to the north of the area. Winds expected to remain light.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.