textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and dry afternoon surface conditions continue to bring Red Flag conditions to portions of East Idaho today, and potentially Friday as well.

- Light showers possible overnight into Friday morning across the eastern highlands, then a higher potential for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.

- Cooling trend expected into the weekend, with coolest temperatures expected Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Satellite imagery shows broad but shallow upper trough across Western Canada this afternoon, with pair of shortwaves across the PacNW. Moisture spreading from Oregon into Idaho today, increasing clouds across the region. Upstream radar shows weak showers across northern Nevada, and today's High-res CAMs bring threat of weak showers across the region this evening and overnight. Surface humidities are very dry, so believe threat for actual precipitation is low until lower overnight temperatures and deeper moisture can improve the potential. Instability is unimpressive, so no thunderstorm threat expected. Even at that, precipitation should mainly be limited to portions of the eastern highlands, and amounts will remain light. Winds today are struggling to develop, but HRRR still pinpointing a later afternoon into evening peak for speeds. Similar wind conditions are expected for tomorrow, absent the precipitation, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Deeper shortwave associated with the broad upper low shifts into Idaho Saturday, bringing an increased chance of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday, mainly for northern zones across the central mountains and Divide. Temperatures cool significantly into Sunday with highs generally expected to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Headed into next work week, there are timing and amplitude differences between operational GFS and ECMWF runs this morning. Ensembles and ensemble clusters maintain a broad trough across the western US, trending toward a split flow pattern towards the latter half of the week, leading to a fair amount of uncertainty toward temperature and precipitation trends throughout the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 555 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Main story for the next few hours and again tomorrow is breezy winds areawide with gusts up to around 30 kts. Have retained VCSH at all sites through Friday morning, although area observations indicate that precipitation thus far has not reached the ground. Westerly winds at KSUN expected to turn northwesterly around 04z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper level trough moving southward, but staying in Canada, will bring moderate to strong wind for today through Sat, mainly in the afternoon, then a closed low moving in from the west will punch up the wind even stronger on Sun. So overall it will be a breezy to windy four days ahead.

This will combine with very low humidity today, and possibly tomorrow, as humidity is expected in some areas to sink below 15 percent. Red Flag Warning continues for Zone 410 today with conditions looking very similar to Friday. Opted to hold off on another issuance for tomorrow to see how conditions transpire today and the next shift will need to decide if an additional one will be needed for Friday.

Over the weekend, the temperatures will cool and humidity spikes upward as showers and thunderstorms arrive on account of this closed low. Do not expect any critical fire weather conditions over the weekend as thunderstorm activity should be isolated in coverage.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410.