textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures until this weekend

- Major pattern change coming starting over the weekend through the middle of next week

- Precipitation amounts may be influenced by the remnants of Rachel.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The weather until the end of the week remains pretty stagnant. We rare gentle northwest to west flow across the state. This will keep us a few degrees cooler than past days, BUT still run quite a bit ABOVE AVERAGE for early October. We will begin to see the first influences of deepening low pressure over the western part of North America Friday. We will likely see some mid and high level clouds increasing but stay dry. Winds will ramp up as the overall pattern shifts down toward the Pacific Northwest.

Starting Saturday and continuing through the middle of next week, we will see MUCH COOLER conditions with the potential for rain and snow during that period. The low drops over Oregon and Washington and begins to closed off. We will drop into the mid 60s to lows 70s in the valleys as clouds and precipitation increase. One of the potential forecast "solutions" since last week in the GFS and ECMWF ensembles is taking the low quickly to offshore of California and we end up initially with split flow over Idaho. At least for today, that appears the main forecast idea across most of the operational and AI versions of those models. While still one of the ideas with the ensemble forecasts, they still show the previous idea of the low not dropping that far south. With the current trend toward the more southern area of low pressure, this has the potential of drawing in the remnants of Rachel and producing a bit of precipitation across the southeast corner of the state. This morning, the Blend of Models does show that with 1"+ amounts. We will see that change? Likely since we are still a few days out and we see big swings sometimes with the models in a pattern like this. The keep in mind with some of the uncertainty, the overall idea still remains the same...cooler and wet conditions. There is still hint we will see snow across higher elevations especially the central mountains and eastern highlands. The chance is still very, very low for any snow across lower valleys, but that is trending closer to zero at the moment.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Dry and above average temperatures are basically the forecast issues throughout the week. This include MODERATE TO POOR overnight humidity recovery. We start to see some changes Friday as stronger winds develop across central eastern Idaho. With little change in humidity, we might issues with critical fire weather conditions where fuels remain receptive. Cooler temperatures along with higher humidity arrives starting Saturday and continues through the first part of next week. Temperatures are still cool enough should see some snow across higher elevations, especially over the central mountains and along the Montana border. The Blend of Models is trending toward the low dropping all the way to offshore of California before shifting inland. The ensemble models have hinted at this being a possible solution, but also still showing the low tracking closer to us as another idea. With this trend, this might allow for moisture from Rachel to get pulled north into Idaho and dump quite a bit of moisture across the southeast corner of the state. Is that certainty this far out? No. We do expect some changes with the forecast as we are still a few days out from seeing what exactly ends up transpiring.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.