textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Spring Transition: Above-normal temperatures will briefly vanish late this week as a cold upper-level low brings a return of rain, mountain snow, and much cooler air. - Thursday Snow: Snow levels will drop to valley floors by Thursday AM. While significant valley accumulation is unlikely due to warm ground temperatures, the higher terrain could see 6 to 12 inches of snow on the highest peaks and passes.

- Breezy & Raw: Thursday will feel particularly "raw" with highs only in the 30s and 40s accompanied by gusty winds across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.

- Easter Weekend Outlook: A rapid warming trend begins Saturday, leading to a dry, sunny, and very warm Easter weekend with temperatures potentially reaching the 70s by early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Eastern Idaho is currently entering a classic springtime roller coaster ride. Afternoon satellite imagery reveals widespread mid-to-high level cloud cover as southwesterly flow aloft transports Pacific moisture into the region. This is the precursor to an upper-level low-pressure system currently progged to settle over the area by late Thursday. Radar is already detecting light, scattered precipitation across portions of the area, and we expect this activity to become more widespread through the evening and overnight hours. While the environment isn't overly unstable, high-resolution models continue to suggest a low, but non-zero, chance for a few isolated thunderstorms through this evening. As we move into Wednesday, precipitation will transition from a steady, stratiform nature overnight back into more cellular, hit-or-miss showers during the day. While precipitation chances (PoPs) remain high, the total liquid equivalent (QPF) is expected to stay low due to the showery nature of the system. The most impactful window for widespread precipitation arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as the heart of the cold core filters into the region. This surge of cold air will drive snow levels down to the valley floors of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. While we expect to see April flakes flying in the valleys, significant accumulations are not anticipated at lower elevations given the recent stretch of warm weather and high ground temperatures.

Accumulations will be primarily focused on the higher terrain, specifically above 6,500 feet. Current forecast totals range from 2 to 4 inches for the Stanley Basin, Ketchum, and Island Park areas, with 1 to 3 inches possible across the eastern highlands between 6,000 and 7,000 feet. The most substantial totals will occur above 8,000 feet on mountain peaks and passessuch as Galena and Emigrationwhere 6 to 10 inches is likely, with up to a foot possible on the highest peaks. While these totals currently fall below Winter Storm Watch criteria, a Winter Weather Advisory may be necessary in subsequent shifts to account for travel impacts over mountain passes. Thursday will likely be a "raw" day by all accounts, with breezy winds nearing Advisory levels and highs struggling to climb out of the 30s and 40s.

The silver lining in this forecast is the brevity of the cold snap. The upper low is expected to shift east into Wyoming by daybreak Friday, allowing a significant warming trend to commence in its wake. While Friday will remain slightly cooler than average with a few lingering mountain showers, an upper- level ridge will build aggressively over the weekend. This setup will lead to a rapid dry-out and a significant jump in temperatures. Valley highs should return to the 50s and 60s by Saturday, with widespread mid-to-upper 60s for Easter Sunday. This trend continues into the first full week of April, with temperatures climbing into the 70s under ample sunshine.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1048 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Main impact will be MVFR conditions with lingering rain possibly mixed with snow through 12Z at DIJ with the lower ceilings continuing through 18Z. Expect VFR conditions at PIH, IDA and BYI with rain showers moving in after 02Z. Have PROB30 thunderstorms at DIJ and SUN Wednesday afternoon with showers moving in after 00Z at those sites.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.