textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry today and tomorrow.

- Cool again before warming slightly for Thursday.

- Looking like a wet, chilly Halloween/weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The weak shortwave passing through our area very early this morning brought some light snow showers to parts of the Eastern Highlands. Most of these showers will be wrapped up by sunrise and the rest of today is expected to be dry as we transition from zonal flow to southwesterly flow aloft. Highs today will be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Wind gusts today will be around 25 mph across the Arco Desert/INL and around 15 to 20 mph elsewhere. The bulk of Thursday will also be dry as temperatures warm just a few degrees into the low to mid 50s in most of the lower elevations and winds stay mostly light.

By very late Thursday night or very early Friday morning, our next system is just beginning to bring the start of some precipitation to Eastern Idaho. An area of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will be just starting to pull in some Pacific moisture at this time and it's this low that moves inland during the weekend and the overall deep troughing over the West that transports even more Pacific moisture to our doorstep on Saturday and Sunday. The current trend has been to decrease QPF on Friday, allowing temperatures to stay "warm" for one more day before more organized showers arrive for the weekend and bring a cool down. On Friday, the more limited precipitation we do have around will likely favor parts of the Central Mountains. The rest of the higher elevations get in on the fun on Friday afternoon/evening before showers become more widespread and steady Saturday into Sunday. While total QPF numbers continue to change from model run to model run, there currently is at least a 50-60 percent chance that all of our CWA sees at least a quarter inch of precipitation from Saturday morning to Monday morning and in some higher elevations especially the farther east you go, those 48-hour totals may be closer to 0.75-1.00 of liquid precipitation. Temperatures will also drop with highs on Sunday and Monday being the low to mid 40s for most.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

So far, fog development has been very limited this morning. However, we do have clouds very near MVFR CIG levels around BYI and CIGs just on either side of VFR/MVFR levels at DIJ, so will continue with the MVFR CIG TEMPO group for DIJ for the next few hours. NBM shows about a 20 percent chance of MVFR CIGs at DIJ through the first half of the day and a less than 10 percent of MVFR CIGs developing at IDA, PIH, and BYI. Overall, VFR conditions are expected to persist today and tomorrow as we enter a dry period ahead of our Friday through Sunday system.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry conditions expected for today and tomorrow as we transition from zonal flow to southwesterly flow aloft. This will warm us up a few degrees, but min RHs will still be around 40-50 percent across the whole area. Wind gusts today will be in the 15-25 mph range. Precipitation returns to the forecast very early Friday morning for the Central Mountains and then spread eastward and becomes more widespread through the weekend. While total QPF numbers continue to change from model run to model run, there currently is at least a 50- 60 percent chance that all of our CWA sees at least a quarter inch of precipitation from Saturday morning to Monday morning and in some higher elevations especially the farther east you go, those 48-hour totals may be closer to 0.75-1.00 of liquid precipitation.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.