textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Spring Warm-up: High pressure will amplify through the weekend, pushing temperatures approximately 10 degrees above seasonal normals by Sunday and Monday.

- Predominantly Dry: Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend for most areas.

- Unsettled conditions return Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

East Idaho under the influence of ridge axis today, with deep upper low off the California/Oregon coast. Secondary shortwave dropping towards Idaho in southern Canada expected to interact with weakly available moisture wrapping into East Idaho from coastal low during the day Sunday, with isolated showers/tstorms across higher elevations. Moving into early week, East Idaho in semi-split flow pattern between gradually progressive upper low into the Great Basin and additional energy dropping through Montana around base of deep closed Canadian low. Enough moisture should be available for showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. Consolidated trough slides southeast of the forecast area Tuesday night, leaving dry northerly flow in place for Wednesday.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend, ensembles favor slowly shifting the ridge east but weakening the amplitude slightly. This could mean reintroducing slight chances of showers and thunderstorms by Friday over higher elevations, supported by deterministic NBM. Those chances could increase slightly into the weekend as the ridge continues to flatten. Overall temperature trends through the week indicate a warmup. Lows tonight will be too warm to support any frost or freeze related headlines, at least for the next few days. There is a 65-75% chance for temperatures to drop below 36 Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, so that would be the next potential target for a Frost Advisory. Odds nearly disappear after that while daytime highs start to see increased potential to near or exceed 80 as early as Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Eastern Idaho will be sitting between two upper level lows, in an "induced" ridging pattern. As the low at the CA coast moves inland perhaps late Sun night, the shift to a more southerly flow through a deep layer may bring some better moisture, but right now, tonight through Sun evening will only see an increase in middle to high level moisture. Only KSUN had an hourly PoP that exceeded 2 percent for an extended period of time, and it still was coming out at around a 20 percent chance Sun late afternoon through the evening. Only KBYI, the farthest west and south, has any kind of a CIG, with SKC-SCT everywhere else. No precipitation in any TAF, so no restriction in VSBY.

With little support aloft for any wind, some downslope tonight due to south wind at KPIH should be the strongest wind at 10KT-15KT. Elsewhere afternoon wind should peak around 10KT or less.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.