textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers linger today with passing shortwave.

- Afternoon highs cooler than yesterday, in the 40s to low 50s.

- Looking like a wet, chilly Halloween/weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Currently there is weak zonal flow aloft over southern Idaho. Upstream, there is a weak upper level low over southwest Oregon. Models show this weak upper level low moving through zonal flow tonight into Wednesday morning over our area. Very little precipitation is expected with this system. Models show one band of precipitation stretching from Driggs to Sun Valley with a .01 to .05 inch of QPF. Models also show up to around 0.10 of QPF in the Island Park Region, the Bear Lake Region, and the northern Central mountains. Winds will remain breezy mainly for ridge tops and in the upper Snake River Plain today with gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Patchy fog near water sources is possible tonight into Wednesday.

Wednesday will be nearly a repeat of today, though drier as we briefly return to southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next system as temperatures warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday afternoon. Again, patchy fog is possible near water sources Wednesday night into Thursday.

An area of low pressure off of the coast of the PNW brings moisture into Eastern Idaho for the weekend, but will begin to bring precipitation back to us as early as overnight Thursday into Friday. Moisture moving into the area Thursday night has back off some with more moisture coming in Friday night into Saturday. Currently, Saturday afternoon/early evening (Halloween) moisture looks to be around 0.02 to 0.10 inch of rain across the area. However, some models hold off moisture until late Saturday into Sunday morning when deep troughing over much of the West pulls ample Pacific moisture into Idaho. This system will keep our highs in the 40s and 50s on Saturday, and 40s for Sunday and Monday.

We will continue to see how precipitation totals change over the next several model runs, so stay tuned for those amounts as we get a little closer to it.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

While the organized moisture is gone, a weak shortwave passing through today will keep around some isolated shower chances, especially after 00Z this evening, so VCSH continues in the forecast but any precip potential looks quite low. Some low clouds seem likely again tonight into Wednesday and if winds drop a bit more than expected, some patchy dense fog will become possible as well but confidence is low. Should see some clearing after daybreak Wednesday but this could become problematic if dense low clouds develop overnight. As it stands now, VFR forecast through the period but this could change depending on how things play out this evening and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Isolated showers linger in the higher elevations today behind the trough and cold front that came through late yesterday into early this morning. A weak shortwave will also pass through this evening and bring an isolated rain chance back with it for parts of the Snake River Plain. That said, additional QPF today looks to remain light, less than a tenth of an inch and many will stay dry. Winds stay breezy today with gusts around 20-30 mph in the upper Snake River Plain and 15-25 mph elsewhere. Wednesday will be drier, but highs stay in the 40s to low 50s both today and tomorrow. We warm slightly on Thursday, but overnight Thursday into Friday we see the return of light precipitation chances ahead of the next system that brings more moisture to us for the weekend and another cool down.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.