textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected through at least the middle of next week

- Fog and low clouds make a return tonight

- Temperatures remain fairly stagnant until the middle of next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1151 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The huge wedge of fog and stratus is quickly shifting back to the west, but it may not be totally gone in the next few hours. In fact, the surface wind pattern tonight looks very similar to last night with a switch to a westerly wind (although it remains weak) until tomorrow morning. In the Teton Valley and Swan Valley area, it is also finally showing signs of eroding. We brought stratus back into the Magic Valley tonight and portions of the Snake Plain, as well as the Teton and Swan Valleys. Again, based on seeing something similar starting tonight with the surface wind and low cloud forecasts. We also bring a return of patchy dense freezing fog to similar areas as last night and this morning. You may be thinking...what about Saturday night? Winds stay downvalley which would keep the fog and low clouds west of us for the most part, so we will not go with a repeat at the moment. Otherwise, things will remain status quo in terms of temperatures...similar to what we have seen the past few days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Our pattern change is still expected to arrive by the middle of next week. Until then, even with the ridge beginning to weaken a bit...the forecast especially temperatures really won't be changing much at all. Once the pattern changes, we actually are looking at a warmup of sorts especially where inversions are expected to finally break...hopefully. It's not a huge warmup, but more areas will be in the 40s and keeping with the pattern of at or just above average. Precipitation chances really don't pick up until Thursday. That part of the forecast is really in flux simply because of the potential for split flow over the western states. There is some hint that we might see a closed low or at least the main low developing to our south and west. IF we do see that happen, the amount of moisture expected will be fairly low and just adding to our period of dry/mostly dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 451 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

High pressure is keeping skies clear above 4000ft AGL and wind light. The main forecast problem is in the boundary layer, with a risk to flight operations due to stratus CIGs below 1000ft AGL and low VSBY due to BR/FG/FZFG.

AIR QUALITY

Issued at 1252 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

An AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY remains in place for the Pocatello area, our side of the Cache Valley, and south of Malad toward Samaria. We will continue to see limited mixing for the next several days. Something to watch will be with the ridge shifted west and northerly flow across central and eastern Idaho. It remains to be seen if that is strong enough to mix out inversions and "clear the air". We will leave things as is at the moment.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Stagnation Advisory until noon MST Sunday for IDZ054-059.