textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance to chance risk of thunderstorms throughout nearly all of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

- Warming and drying trend continues, but strength of the warming diminishes.

- Independence Day holiday weekend is dry, no thunderstorms, light wind. Temperatures around normal for the time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today through Fri night...Weak upper level trough will actually cross through the forecast area tonight. Expect continued instability today with light precipitation nearly everywhere except the Bear Lake region. This trough is moving ENE in direction and so will bring more precipitation to the northern zones of the forecast area than the southern. For tonight and Thu the greater precipitation moves with the trough to the eastern and southern highlands. The amount of precipitation is even lower than today. As the upper level flow flattens Fri, the light precipitation and risk of thunderstorms stays in the areas south of the Snake River. The amount of sunshine and the slow- moving nature of this low will mean a very gradual warming trend, on the order of 1 to 3 deg F from day to day. Wind is light today, then breezier tomorrow after the trough passes to the east. Breezy conditions continue Fri afternoon as well.

Independence Day through Tue...An upper level ridge centered in the Four Corners area will start amplifying by Sun. The only difference in the clusters is how strong this ridge is. This should allow some strong warming by Mon or Tue, so expect another surge in temperatures, where low elevation locations will start exceeding 90 deg F. The overall subsidence should keep skies nearly clear, with only some afternoon cumulus due to daytime heating the only way clouds could develop. As usual under such a ridge, wind will stay relatively calm at night with slope- valley wind for the late morning to early evening.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Some occasional mid-level or higher CIGs, especially this morning, but also as the atmosphere destablizes in the early afternoon whenever TSRA pop up. TSRA seem to develop by 01/19Z. They barely qualify for a PROB30 group. TSRA continue into the mid-evening. Expect G30KT as there isn't much upper level support for more. Precipitation amounts are so light that no VSBY impact is expected.

Outside of TSRA, wind stays fairly light and mostly driven by slope-valley effect. Only G25kt appears to be at KIDA, the rest staying at 15KT sustained or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Warming and drying continues today. The air remains unstable enough to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, but the moisture content should be way down and humidity for the afternoon should start lowering. Wind will be light today and Thu, but as the upper level pattern flattens, the wind should be stronger Fri. Light showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms will decrease in coverage for Thu and Fri. By Sat an upper level high in the Four Corners area will be building, and by Sun or Mon temperatures in lower elevations will start surpassing the 90 deg F mark in many locations. By Mon, a threat of showers and thunderstorms returns with another upper level trough approacing from the west.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.