textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Low pressure moving through the Great Plains will continue the below normal temperatures another 24 hours.

- This low will also provide a chance of some light snow in the eastern third of the forecast area, from Pocatello eastward.

- Warming trend develops Monday, continue through next Saturday, with little precipitation in sight, sticking to mountain and highland areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

An intense low ready to give the eastern two thirds of the country another shock is located today in the northern front range of the Rockies. This means northerly wind for another 24 hours, as the intense low is slow-moving. The proximity to the ID-WY border means that today there is a slight chance of some light precipitation as far west as Pocatello, but the higher risk is in the highlands bordering WY. By this early evening, the precipitation threat is completely gone. The upper level ridge axis is still to the west, but skies should be clear which will mean another chilly start on Mon morning. But by Mon evening, the northerly component to the upper level wind is gone and the axis is flattened by a short wave trough moving through the mean flow. This is what may trigger a slight chance of precipitation late Mon night in the upper Snake River highlands. However, most locations will have clear or mostly clear skies aloft during the day, so once again it's another week of little or not precipitation.

The clearer skies and end of the northerly flow will mean a warming trend that continues into next weekend, when temperatures in the Snake River plain could hover around 40 degrees for highs, or about 10 deg F above normal for the time of year.

Expect some gusty wind today with the strongest gradient of the week due to the northern plains low. Then eastern Idaho is back to light and variable wind. Thus the risk of radiational fog is back and thus freezing fog and black ice will be risks in the morning in the valleys.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

As all ready mentioned, warming trend will bring temperatures by the weekend to 10 deg F or so above normal for the highs, and 3 to 8 deg F warmer for lows. No cluster analysis was available as discussion time, but the weak threat of precipitation on Fri to Sat afternoon is still below climatic normals for the time of year for even the mountain regions. The PoP threat is even lower for Snake River plain locations, staying below 10 percent on national blended guidance, which doesn't even merit mention.

For wind, the upper level high pressure dominance keeps wind weak with plenty of periods of light and variable wind at lower elevations. This continues a threat of night and morning freezing fog, which, after some continued air stagnation, could result in hazardous visibilities and black ice on roads and sidewalks.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 310 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Winter storm over the northern Great Plains wrought havoc in the three eastern airports KDIJ, KIDA, and KPIH with stratus affecting CIG, although only the marginal VFR conditions. KDIJ has had issues with IFR VSBY due to SN/BR occasionally overnight. This all continues as the low progresses eastward during the morning hours, but by 25/17Z it should cease to influence eastern Idaho aviation weather. Current thinking is that the stratus doesn't have much chance of returning tonight to the extent of what is has been the last 24 hours. But guidance has not handled stratus very well, though it makes sense at least that stronger north wind aloft does continue tonight. But a shift to a more westerly component aloft brings with it stagnant air that will risk stratus and BR/FG.

The upper level wind in this stable condition doesn't have much chance of being seen at approach ends of runways, but it should allow wind up to 10KT during the day today, especially for the afternoon when sunshine starts breaking out. Weak gradients do return tonight, but the air coming in from the north looks very dry at least at first.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.