textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record highs possible today and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures 20-25 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE

- A few mostly dry thunderstorms possible today, with better chances Wednesday

- Wind Advisory for much of Southeast Idaho Wednesday for gusts to 55 mph with the potential for severe wind gusts at times

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday for convective wind gusts 60 mph or greater

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

This week is packed with various impacts from near-record to record heat, strong winds with the potential for severe wind gusts, and finally frost/freeze conditions by next weekend. Starting with today, temperatures will run more than 20 degrees above climatological normals with many of our low elevation areas warming to 90 degrees. This also means near-record to record temperatures for many today, as well. Although the warmest temperatures of the week are forecast today, daytime temperatures will run very similar again tomorrow.

In additional to the heat both today and tomorrow, dry thunderstorms will be another concern. Although the potential is low today (less than 10% chance), the most probable area will be across central Idaho from the South Hills north into the central mountains. This threat increases dramatically tomorrow as the ridge breaks down, with HREF probability of thunder increasing to 30 to 60 percent across the aforementioned corridor.

A few severe thunderstorm wind gusts are anticipated tomorrow. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has included most of our CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow due to the increased potential for severe wind gusts. Surface winds will already be strong across the region as strong 500 to 700 mb winds mix down to the surface and so convective winds will have a much easier time reaching or exceeding 60 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for a good portion of Southeast Idaho from Noon to 10 PM Wednesday: the Snake River Plain, eastern Magic Valley, Arco Desert, Shoshone area, South Hills, Raft River Region, Beaverhead-Lemhi Highlands, Lost River and Wood River regions. Sustained West/Southwest winds will range 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Again, we expect High Wind/Severe wind gust speeds to be achieved at times tomorrow.

Temperatures will run cooler on Thursday behind the departing system, with daytime temps 15 or so degrees cooler than tomorrow. We will very briefly warm back up on Friday before low pressure dominates the pattern late week and we cool into the 50s and 60s during the weekend. This will mean widespread frost/freeze conditions by Sunday morning with the potential for frost as early as Friday or Saturday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 908 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the period. There are some lingering light showers just north of DIJ currently from a passing weak wave. Clouds will clear out in the next couple of hours for DIJ. Winds have dropped off significantly for DIJ, IDA and PIH the last couple of hours with wind speeds of 7 to 11 kts currently. Winds will drop off even more overnight.

High pressure builds in overnight into Tuesday and will bring clear skies and overall light winds tonight through most of Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051>057- 067>070-075.