textproduct: Pocatello

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery reveals lingering low stratus across the lower elevations of eastern Idaho. While the fog that impacted the region earlier today has diminished enough to allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire, conditions remain sporadic. We anticipate fog will redevelop tonight and persist into Friday morning, standing as the most significant weather hazard for the region over the next couple of days. Any precipitation this afternoon will be very isolated and confined to the far southeast corner. High-resolution models suggest that any additional light snowfall through Friday will be extremely limited, resulting in little to no measurable accumulation.

As we head into the weekend, weak ridging will build over the area, keeping conditions mostly dry. Some light, mountain- enhanced precipitation is possible near the central mountains and Island Park, where temperatures will remain cool enough to support snow. However, the lower valleys will experience a pronounced warming trend, with forecast highs in the upper 40s to mid-50swell above seasonal norms.

The benign weather comes to an end early next week as a broad upper-level trough establishes itself over the Western U.S.. This shift will usher in a more unsettled pattern, drawing Pacific moisture into the region via southwest flow. While models have slightly delayed the arrival of this moisture, Monday is expected to be the first day of widespread precipitation. Along with the moisture, a tightening pressure gradient will cause winds to increase Monday and remain breezy through mid-week.

Temperature profiles on Monday will initially be too warm for snow in the lower elevations. However, as the system deepens Tuesday and Wednesday, confidence is growing that we will see a transition to accumulating snowfall across all of eastern Idaho, including the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. It is worth noting that model guidance still shows a wide spread regarding the exact depth of the incoming cold air, which will be the deciding factor for precipitation types. For now, we have maintained the NBM (National Blend of Models) solution, which favors snow for the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, though overall confidence in exact totals remains low at this stage.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Surface based inversions continue under the influence of increasing high pressure, with low stratus and fog throughout most of the Snake Plain and surrounding valleys. Conditions currently IFR or low MVFR at all East Idaho terminals. We could see a brief shift to higher-end MVFR CIGS at any site this afternoon under influence of highest sun, but confidence is low in any significant improvement. The longer the CIGS and VIS remain low this afternoon, the lower the confidence in any sort of improvement overnight. Model guidance varies but soundings support continued IFR to MVFR CIGS and/or VIS at all sites, including SUN.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.