textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- The next storm brings wind and a few showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday

- ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected most of the forecast period

- Forecast is trending drier for the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A fairly calm day continues ahead of the next low coming through the state tomorrow into Thursday. There is still an outside shot of a shower (more likely virga/sprinkles) around Island Park and Monida Pass. We will see impacts starting later tomorrow afternoon with the next storm as it approaches. We will likely see a lot of virga/sprinkles mid afternoon through tomorrow night, although there is a chance of measurable rainfall tomorrow night into Thursday across the central mountains and along the Montana border. There is a low chance of thunderstorms as well, and IF we do see lightning, it will be mainly across the central mountains tomorrow afternoon through sunset. That said, it is NON-ZERO elsewhere. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35 mph with anything convective that develops. It looks like the main front arrives tomorrow evening and quickly sweeps across the area tomorrow night. There is the potential for a few showers and storms lingering along the Montana border Thursday. The bigger story will be the wind. Right now, we are borderline for WIND ADVISORY or LAKE WIND ADVISORY criteria for the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and surrounding areas. The pattern turns breezy starting Friday across the board. Trends for the weekend are slower and farther north with the next low impacting central and eastern Idaho. Right now, it looks like the initial low skirts by to the north (similar to tomorrow) with any real potential for rainfall and thunderstorm being across the central mountains, and along the Montana/Wyoming borders. This trend also continues to point toward a closed low developing offshore and slowly coming onshore next week. There should me a minimal chance of any showers or storms until potentially the middle of next week. With the exception of Thursday and Sunday, highs return to the 70s and 80s for valley locations with some spots maybe pushing 90 next week. For Thursday and Sunday, highs for lower elevations should remain in the 70s, perhaps touching 80 in warmest locations.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions likely today with some gusts to 20 kts possible at most TAF sites this afternoon. SUN should switch to upvalley around midday with another switch to the southwest mid to late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Dry air work work into the region over the next couple days although winds look relatively light. A weak system will pass through Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday Night which could produce some dry showers/thunderstorms.

There is some concern about borderline RED FLAG CONDITIONS across Zone 427 tomorrow due to wind gusts and humidity and mid and upper slopes. We are expecting gusts 25-35 mph with humidity in the 10-20% range. After coordinating with the local fuels expert and crews on the ground at the Summit Creek Fire, we will NOT issue any headline at this point. Winds will be much stronger tomorrow night and Thursday, but humidities will be much higher.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.