textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash Flood Watch for Local Burn Scars: A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Ohio, and Big Rock burn scars Today, where precipitation could trigger debris flows and rapid runoff.

- Precipitation gradually decreases through the overnight, with dry weather returning Saturday through Monday.

- Colder temperatures in place through the weekend. Sub-freezing overnight temperatures will be possible in many locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper-level low center is currently tracking northeast across Eastern Idaho, with distinct closed circulation visible on both satellite and radar imagery. Wrap-around precipitation will persist across the region through tonight as the system slowly ejects toward the Northern Rockies, supporting periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall rates. The main precipitation focus through this evening will concentrate over the Snake Plain and the southern/eastern highlands, while activity across the central mountains gradually diminishes. Consequently, the flash flood threat over the Wapiti burn scar has ended, allowing the Flood Watch to expire at noon; however, the Flood Watches for the Ohio and Big Rock burn scars remain in effect through late afternoon due to ongoing vulnerability.

Although guidance has trended toward slightly better consensus, notable ensemble spread persists regarding additional QPF through tonight, with the bulk of accumulation occurring before midnight. NBM 25th percentile totals remain around 0.10 inches in the central mountains, scaling up to near 1.00 inch along the Continental Divide and Island Park. Meanwhile, 90th percentile values reach 1.001.50 inches across the Snake Plain/highlands and up to 2.00 inches along the Divide. Official QPF closely tracks NBM 50th percentile/mean values (roughly half of the 90th percentile) with the understanding that a few locations could see the higher amounts materialize under the influence of heavier bands. Snow levels may briefly drop toward valley floors in some areas overnight before precipitation tapers off, though accumulations will remain restricted to mid-slope elevations and above, keeping travel impacts negligible. Dry, stable conditions under a transient high-pressure ridge will prevail Saturday through Monday before the next system approaches by mid-week with significantly lighter QPF.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 513 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

We continue to forecast MVFR CIGs through around 06z at KSUN, 11z at KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI, and a bit later at KDIJ through around 15z. A rain/snow mix still remains possible at KDIJ as temperatures continue to drop, most likely between 02z and 06z. Precipitation will largely conclude by 06z areawide. Winds will also decrease to below 10 kts by 06z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Wetting rains are likely across much of the area today. Winds look lighter across the central mountains, but gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely across much of southern and eastern Idaho today. Drier weather with lighter winds returns for Saturday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.