textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Today is the last day of "calm weather" before major changes begin

- Winds ramp up Friday with some spots seeing critical/near- critical fire weather conditions

- Much cooler starting this weekend with rain and mountain snow

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Today will be last day for a while that will not see any type of weather other than "chamber of commerce" weather. Changes start on Friday, although it mainly will be stronger winds. Warm temperatures and dry conditions will remain in place one more day, and in fact tomorrow looks to be a bit warmer in some spots. Gusts tomorrow will reach 25-35 mph over much of central and eastern Idaho, with some gusts in the central mountains topping out around 40 mph. At the moment, that wouldn't be pushing any wind-related headlines outside of fire weather.

Showers and thunderstorms begin to increase Saturday and will continue into early next week. All versions of the GFS and ECMWF are showing split flow across the West through early next week. The main low drops across and offshore of California before swinging east. The signal is still there that ahead of that, remnants of Rachel are pulled north and impact portions of central and eastern Idaho. The latest forecast has 1-2" of precipitation across the South Hills/Albion Mountains, southeast and eastern highlands. Higher ridgelines east of I-15 are pushing 2.25-2.5". There is some spillover into the Snake Plain of 1.0-1.5" from Pocatello up through Rexburg. Amounts over the eastern and southeast highlands are certainly pushing the highest end of forecast amounts in our Blend of Models but certainly possible given the pattern and tropical moisture. Amounts taper off across the central mountains, where some of the "drier" valley spots are in the 0.10-0.30" range. There is still some uncertainty on how far west the moisture Rachel actually reaches, so we may see some wobbling back and forth until the weekend on where higher amounts may fall. It will be cold enough for accumulating snow above 7000ft across the central mountains and along the Divide. Amounts are fairly light, but could amount to several inches for the highest peaks in the central mountains and over toward Island Park. With colder temperatures Sunday and Monday, we could see snowflakes falling much lower than that...BUT may not stick. We will likely end up with more widespread frost/freeze issues on mornings where precipitation is not expected or is minimal. For the middle of next week, another low tries to drop into the western states. This would keep cooler air in place and keep the potential for precipitation going.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 927 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions remain likely over the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

We have one more day of "calm weather". We do expect the dry air to remain in place along with some localized gusty winds today. The only change major change will be increasing winds on Friday ahead of the major shift happening over the weekend. Many areas will see gusts of 25-35 mph with gusts closer to 40 mph over higher elevations of the central mountains. There are mixed fuels conditions across Zones 422/425/427, so we COULD see some issues with critical/near-critical fire weather conditions. We will need to do some more checking to see if continued dry and warm conditions created changes in fuels conditions since last week. Showers and storms begin Saturday and continue through early next week, at least with the first low moving through the West. Moisture from Rachel will impact central and eastern Idaho, especially across Zones 410, 411, and 413. In these areas, amounts are in the 1-2" range with some higher ridgelines pushing 2.25-2.50". This is pushing the highest end of precipitation amounts in the Blend of Models but seems quite reasonable since we are impacted by deeper tropical moisture. There are some indications that moisture from Rachel is pulled farther west, but is dependent on where the closed low and trough extending back north across the Rockies develops by the end of the weekend. We may indeed some some wobbling with the forecast on where heavier amounts fall. Once you shift back across the central mountains, amounts in the mountains are still pushing 0.40-0.80", and 0.10-0.30" for "drier" valleys. Temperatures will be cold enough for accumulating snow over the central mountains and along the the Montana border toward Island Park. Amounts will be light, except for higher peaks in the central mountains around Island Park where totals could push 6" above 9,000ft. More precipitation is likely coming for the middle and end of next week. Another low is trying to drop in behind the first storm, which would keep temperatures cooler for sure.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.