textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and very high elevation snow showers through Monday.

- Above average temperatures Into early next week.

- Next system arrives mid week with unsettled conditions for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Light showers are moving through East Idaho this afternoon per radar and satellite imagery. Showers are expected to continue across the region through Monday as the upper trough shifts through the northern Great Basin. Precipitation becomes a little more widespread and slightly heavier during the day Monday as the upper trough approaches. Snow levels remain 7500-8500 ft across the region through Monday, slowing dropping late in the day as the precipitation slowly shifts to the southeast into the overnight. Total accumulations remain 4-6" above pass level, with minor travel impacts at pass level.

A transitory ridge is forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Next system is still expected Wednesday into Thursday across the region, bringing slightly higher precipitation totals to East Idaho for mid week. Mild temperatures Wednesday keep snow levels elevated above 6500 ft Wednesday, but as temperatures fall Wednesday night into Thursday, we could see rain mix with snow down to valley floors depending on timing of the precipitation. Temperatures drop to more seasonable levels following the cold front associated with this feature.

For the remainder of the forecast period, NBM maintains unsettled conditions across East Idaho. General pattern looks to be northwest flow with series of embedded shortwave features. There are differences in the ensemble clusters with respect to the amplification of the upper ridge off the California coast and how the split flow develops into the central plains by the weekend. Temperatures look to stay seasonable under this pattern, which is still warm enough to support rain or rain/snow mix at valleys for each system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1024 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Showers/pockets of light rain will persist through this evening, with MVFR/IFR possible at times. Otherwise, expect VFR weather during this period. Overnight and tomorrow morning, one or more areas of widespread and potentially heavier rain and snow is expected...based on the higher resolution models. Once this area of precipitation moves in, look for a rapid drop to IFR conditions due to low ceilings and/or visibility (especially if snow develops in areas where we are closer 32-35 degrees). There is a 10-20% chance of going LIFR at this point based on trends.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.