textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm potential ramps up again starting Sunday

- Warmer temperatures will persist even with possible increase in clouds and storms

- Very warm and dry conditions possible for the end of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today looks pretty calm across central and eastern Idaho. We will see some clouds build up this afternoon and evening, but higher resolutions models and ensembles show little/no chance of strong outflow winds or thunderstorms. This would indicate we MIGHT see some virga, but the potential is fairly low. We do expect some gusts in the 15-25 mph across the area through sunset. Temperatures will quickly drop into the 50s and 60s through midnight.

As the Four Corners high gets re-established over the next few days, we try and maintain warmer temperatures as some monsoon moisture is drawn north into the state. We currently have a daily chance of showers/virga and thunderstorms. Coverage will likely fluctuate each forecast period based on timing out when we see clearing vs more widespread early day clouds and/or light precipitation. Current trends are showing more dry thunderstorms than decent rain-producers, but we will need to see how that fluctuates with each model forecast. Looking ahead to at least tomorrow afternoon and evening, the best chance for showers and isolated storms will be across the central mountains and eastern highlands. There is a 30-70% chance for gusts over 35 mph, focused over the central mountains. That said, that potential is spread across most of eastern Idaho, which would indicate that while we may not see thunderstorms everywhere, we may see virga/sprinkles along with stronger outflow winds in multiple places. This pattern holds through Wednesday, if not Thursday.

The forecast by next weekend may prove interesting, depending on what pattern develops. The GFS, some ensemble forecasts, and half of the cluster forecasts develop a very strong ridge of pressure over the area extending into eastern Idaho during that timeframe. This would likely direct most, if not all, of the monsoon moisture to our north and west. The impact would likely be very warm temperatures, potentially pushing us toward 100 for highs, and not much wind. The ECMWF, along with the rest of the ensemble and cluster forecasts, develop the ridge more to our south. This will also bring pretty dry conditions our way as monsoon moisture would be directed away from us. It would be a bit cooler vs the other scenario, but also bring more wind. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Widespread clear skies in southeast Idaho through this evening with no flying impacts as winds expected to remain 10 knots or less. Will see increasing high level cloud cover on Sunday but still no significant impacts at the TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Widespread humidity everywhere except in the central Idaho mountains and the upper Snake River highlands will dry out to below critical thresholds through Sunday. A surge of humidity arrives towards the end of Mon and into Tue to bring humidity up slightly as temperatures also stay very warm for the time of year. However, drying returns on Tue as the upper level wind shifts to a dry westerly airflow. Wind is expected to be below critical thresholds until maybe Thu. An extended period of hot weather is expected through next weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.