textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoon moisture remains with a daily chance of light showers and thunderstorms through at least midweek

- ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected although more dense smoke may hold temperatures down several degrees

- Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions in place for the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Monsoon moisture looks to remain in play through midweek. Quite a bit moisture will be overhead through most of the day, which will limit thunderstorm potential to mostly areas east of I-15 and isolated in nature. We COULD a few strikes elsewhere especially if we can get a bit more sunshine this afternoon. Even if we don't see a lot of thunderstorms around, virga will certainly be a potential issue. Gusts may stay under 35 mph though, as the potential for gusts over 35 mph is limited to 10-20% for today. For Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm potential is current expected across the South Hill/Albion Mountains and southeast highlands. More isolated potential exists north of Idaho Falls toward the Montana border, as well as in the corridor from Willow Creek Summit to Mackay northeast into southern Montana. Currently, we are expected less morning cloud cover and more instability, indicated by an up to 60% chance of gusts over 35 mph. Our last better chance of showers and storms will be Wednesday, as a better surge of monsoon moisture impacts the state. With the potential for more cloud cover at times, temperatures will be a bit cooler than the past few days with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. We may end up cooler than that for two reasons: any particular day with more early cloud cover AND dense smoke due to fires in Oregon and southwest Idaho. We are already seeing that this morning especially from Pocatello west toward Boise. This will be something to watch as dense smoke itself may be enough to quell instability and better chances of showers and storms overall.

Starting Thursday, the ridge shifts back to the west and potentially southwest. This should cut off the monsoon moisture for the most part. We could a see a storm or two, but the pattern is not ideal for continued deeper moisture pushing into Idaho. This will push us back toward hotter and drier conditions. By the weekend, highs will likely be pushing 100 again in several areas and increasing HeatRisk impacts across eastern Idaho.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will be the biggest impact to aviation across eastern Idaho over the next 24 hours. Currently seeing VSBYs range from around 2-5 miles at all terminals except KDIJ where P6SM continues. Based on latest output from HRRR smoke model, looks like it'll take until later tonight to see some improvement at KIDA and KPIH where we could return to VSBYs around 5-6 miles. KSUN and KBYI look like they could remain MVFR through the period, especially BYI, based on latest smoke model output. All that being said, confidence is low with regard to just how much improvement we will see. As far as precip is concerned, still some potential for showers, maybe an isoalted tstm, to impact the Snake Plain and DIJ terminals but smoke is keeping temperatures lower and will thus likely limit convection a little bit. Some gusty winds in and around storms will be possible but outside of that, winds should be light across the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Monsoon moisture remains locked in through Wednesday across central and eastern Idaho. This will keep some mention of thunderstorms going through that point. We will continue to see more dry than wet thunderstorms overall. For today, thunderstorms appears to be limited due to early morning cloud cover. The latest thunder potential probabilities isolated coverage east of I-15, although we may see a storm or two farther west...where we can get more sunshine. Another indication of lower instability is the low probability of gusts over 35 mph, 10-20%. That said, virga is possible anywhere today with some gusts. Another complicating factor is increasing smoke from fires in Oregon and southwest Idaho. This may end up in some areas, especially out west, keeping a lid on warmer temperatures and more stable conditions. It should remain breezy especially over the central mountains, portions of the Arco Desert, and Magic Valley. A RED FLAG WARNING remains in effect for the Zone 475/476 in the central mountains, although this is going to be marginal. Early cloud cover may keep us from fully mixing stronger gusts to the surface later in the day. On the flip side, virga gusts may help enhance gust potential. Some gusts, even without virga, with hit 25-30 mph. For Tuesday, the pattern remains similar, although cloud cover will be less overall tomorrow. The main push storms will be outside of the central mountains, although a small corridor is possible across 475 and 476. We may also be close again on critical fire weather threshold for wind and humidity in those zones. Another deeper surge of moisture arrives for a better chance of showers and storms overall.

By Thursday and into the weekend, the ridge shifts west and potentially even southwest. This should cut off most, if not all, of the monsoon moisture for a while. This will allow for very low humidity issues and hotter temperatures to return. At the moment, we do not have any thunderstorm chances in the forecast. With hotter temperatures, any amount of moisture that crosses the state may produce at least some virga if not a thunderstorm or two.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051-052- 054>058-062. Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ053-063>074. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ475-476.