textproduct: Pocatello
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Prolonged Quiet Weather Period: High pressure and dry air will keep eastern Idaho completely dry with minimal cloud cover through the workweek, upcoming weekend, and into early October. Zonal flow aloft will hold daytime highs near late- September averages in the upper 60s to lower 70s across lower elevations through Wednesday.
- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend.
- No Fall-Like Weather in Sight: High confidence exists for above-normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation extending through the first full week of October.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026
High pressure in control over East Idaho through the weekend, keeping conditions warm and dry. Daytime highs across most lower elevations look to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Operational models continue to depict a weak low shifting through the Great Basin Monday into Tuesday, which MAY have some potential to produce isolated showers or thunderstorms. Ensembles wash out this feature, and even the 90th percentile QPF Monday into Tuesday remains very light, so confidence is extremely low at this time for any meaningful break in the pattern.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026
VFR expected through the period with mainly clear skies. Could see some afternoon wind gusts at times pushing 15 kts in the valley terminals but winds will again become light and variable overnight and into Thursday AM.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Dry weather is likely through the weekend and into much of next week as high pressure will remain in control across eastern Idaho. A few gusts to 15 to 20 mph are possible the next few afternoons, mainly across lower elevations. Winds become even light over the weekend as high pressure amplifies over the area keeping things dry and temperatures on the warmer side of normal into next week.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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