textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories continue today and tonight.

- Windy to very windy conditions develop in the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley tonight and Saturday.

- Lighter rain and snow accumulations continue Saturday through at least Thursday.

- Very windy again Tuesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 206 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Surface low continues to move through the northwesterly upper level flow with plenty of moisture to work with. Precipitation should be its heaviest today and tonight. With the passage of the surface low to the east, precipitation accumulation rates drop precipitously. The lowest threat period will be Sat night, when things take something of a break at that point. Have not changed anything in the current Winter Storm Warning product.

Temperatures will warm compared to yesterday, but not as quickly as previous thinking, with temperatures staying below 40 deg F for much of the area. Warming continues Sat for the highs, then the clearing skies Sat night produce the coldest overnight lows for the next six days. The cold start will bring some slight cooling for Sun, then incoming cloudiness warms the overnight lows some.

Wind starting late tonight in the eastern Magic Valley and the lower Snake River plain has some potential to be very windy, and continue that way through Saturday and into Saturday night. This is due to the exit of the low to the east and should be a westerly wind. A Wind Advisory is a distinct possibility but will let another shift get a look as this time as it is just short.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 206 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

The upper level ridge at the west coast continues to dominate this pattern through at least Mon, the point at which cluster analyzes were not available. This ridge has amplified, putting higher 500mb heights over the forecast area which implies much warmer temperatures; this is brought out in the MOS guidance which indicates temperature exceeding 50 deg F by Tue in the lower elevations, despite clouds and precipitation at 40 percent chance or greater, depending on elevation. The other remarkable aspect of this period is strong wind forecast nearly non-stop until Thu afternoon. The European MOS indicates lower wind strengths, but still significant. The European suite also has lower chances for precipitation, and cooler temperatures, which may be more correct based on current performance of the product suites.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Troublesome TAF period once again with another surge of moisture expected to push through the area later this afternoon and evening. Currently, widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are in place at KPIH, KIDA and KBYI and will likely remain in place into the midday tomorrow. Precip, mostly rain, will overspread the area later this evening and into the overnight. A brief period of -SN or -RASN will be possible at the initial onset of precip in these locations before transition to all rain. Mountain terminals, KSUN and KDIJ, will also see MVFR/IFR conditions shortly with the latter likely to remain socked in through much of the period. KSUN should start to see some improvement by mid-morning Saturday. Winds will become breezy at KPIH, KIDA and KBYI later this afternoon and continue through the period.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for IDZ053-072- 073. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for IDZ058>066.