textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and light wind day/evening for America's 250th

- Light showers and thunderstorms return for portions of the area Sunday afternoon, more areas on Monday.

- Widespread humidity in low elevations below 15 percent means enhanced fire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today through Mon night...High pressure has built into eastern Idaho for today, and this will mean warmer air and light wind. Afternoon temperatures peak in the lower 90s for the eastern Magic Valley and western half of the Snake River plain. Continued ridge building pushes temperatures in the lower elevations into thelower to middle 90s. Cloud cover on Mon means increased risk of showers and thunderstorms along with temperatures down 3 to 7 deg F.

Wind stays light for today and Sun, then a southwest flow in the afternoon rises to 10KT to 15KT, staying below Lake Wind Advisory conditions.

Tue through Fri...Tue has enough of a southerly component aloft that the door is open for some remnants of the southwest monsoon, as it will be on Mon, but subsequent days the flow becomes more westerly and drier. Clusters are only different in the 500mb heights and thus just how hot it will get is the main difference. Most NBM pops in this period are sub-10 percent after Tue. Temperatures stay 7 to 12 deg F above normal for highs, overnight lows near normal for the time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 424 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

High pressure dominating means at most SKC-SCT in the mid-levels or higher, so no CIG issues. No precipitation or dust expected, so no VSBY issues. So only wind shifts make up the FM groups. Wind should not get to more than 15KT anywhere, mostly driven, when it has a direction, by the slope-valley wind effect.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Widespread humidity everywhere except in the central Idaho mountains and the upper Snake River highlands will dry out to below critical thresholds over the next three days, Sat-Sun-Mon. A surge of humidity arrives towards the end of Mon and into Tue to bring humidity up slightly as temperatures also stay very warm for the time of year. However, drying returns on Tue as the upper level wind shifts to a dry westerly airflow. Wind is expected to be below critical thresholds until maybe Thu.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.