textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase, peaking over the weekend

- Gusty winds expected even outside of where thunderstorm gusts develop

- Cooler temperatures over the weekend with some light, wet snow at mid and upper elevations

UPDATE

Issued at 719 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The RED FLAG WARNING that was in effect for Fire Weather Zone 413 until midnight tonight has been cancelled. Isolated thunderstorm activity will continue for the next few hours, but has dropped below the "scattered" activity needed to meet RFW criteria.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

More showers and thunderstorms are coming tonight and tomorrow, ahead the main low impact the region through Monday. We are still expecting an uptick through the rest of the afternoon, with an even bigger uptick overnight in the central mountains. There is a 30-50% chance for gusts over 35 mph, with peak gusts of 45-55 mph possible. On Friday, we will see development spreading east through the day. It appears a more organized band develops over the central through tomorrow morning and eventually across the rest of the area with the cold front. The front likely will not clear the state until toward sunrise Saturday. The front will kick up winds tomorrow across portions of the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, and highlands along the Montana border. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible in this corridor, outside of any influence of showers or storms. We will issue a WIND ADVISORY for the entirety of the Snake Plain and north to the Montana border west of I-15. Circling back to precipitation through tomorrow evening, outside of the central mountains rainfall will be minimal. Up to 0.25" with locally higher amounts are possible.

For Saturday through Monday, showers and thunderstorms will increase as the low drops across the state, finally swinging north into Montana Monday...which is a bit slower that previous forecasts. With the track of the low, higher amounts of precipitation will be across the central mountains and eastern highlands. Through Sunday evening, for the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and South Hills/Albion Mountains, we will see anywhere from a few hundredths to around 0.20". For the southeast highlands, we are looking at 0.20-0.60". For the rest of central and eastern Idaho, look for 0.40" to around 1.0". With the core of the low passing over the central mountains, this will help drive snow levels down to around 8000-10000ft and likely driven down to 6500-7500ft in some spots due to heavier precipitation. We will see light, wet snow generally above 8500ft with occasional brief accumulation down to 6500ft. This along with cooler temperatures will make it pretty chilly for anyone trekking into the backcountry. Highs over the weekend will be in the 50s and 60s for valley locations, with highest elevations running in the low 30s to near 50. Overnight lows will be down into the 20s and 30s, with warmer ares dropping to near 40, which means there will be some pockets of frost or freeze conditions coming. Lighter amounts of precipitation will continue into Monday before the low pulls away from the state. We do dry out through the middle of next week, in terms of humidity at least, along with warmer temperatures. Once again, we will be dealing with weaker lows skirting through the area...which may produce virga/light rain and thunderstorms on occasion.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Radar is looking very empty around our TAF sites this evening, so have taken out VCSH and PROB30s at all sites for the rest of this evening and into early tonight. It remains a bit breezy around PIH and IDA with winds around 15-20kts, but winds at all sites will diminish overnight. VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of this forecast period as we look to stay mostly dry now with no impacts to VIS or CIGs. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday afternoon, so have added VCSH and PROB30 groups in at most sites. Showers could start as early as 15Z at SUN, though it seems that CAMs may be a bit over zealous. Thunder/lightning looks a bit limited tomorrow, so will see what next model runs bring.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

We are watching for more showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Coverage remains isolated to scattered, although it will be interesting to see if the more widespread rain and thunderstorms this morning keeps things at bay. We will maintain the RED FLAG WARNING through this evening across Zone 413 as there is some potential for scattered storms to redevelop. There is a 30-50% chance of gusts over 35 mph with peak gusts of 45-55 mph possible. Overnight and Friday morning, we will an area of light rain/virga developing across the central mountains extending east along the Montana border toward Island Park. We will see rain and thunderstorms spreading east tomorrow afternoon and evening. Coverage will be isolated to scattered, along with an increasing potential for wetting rains, although the latter will only be across the central mountains. Scattered coverage is expected across the central mountains and Zone 411 along the Montana border, with isolated elsewhere (even if we get a slight uptick along the cold front). After coordinating will local fuels and fire officials, we will issue a RED FLAG WARNING for Zone 422 tomorrow afternoon and evening. Other areas where we meet coverage thresholds, fuels are less critical with nothing warranting a headline. Winds overall will increase across the area ahead of the front. Gusts of 30-50 mph are possible, strongest across Zones 410, 411, 425, and 476. Higher gusts are possible when adding any impacts from showers and storms. Humidity values make a huge jump and will be well above the 15% threshold. That said, if conditions align due to wind and/or lightning...starts or existing fire activity could spread. We may need to re- evaluate tonight or first thing tomorrow on the need to expand coverage for any warnings.

Much cooler weather is coming through Monday, with coldest conditions Saturday through Sunday night. The period of greatest precipitation is still through Sunday evening, and with colder temperatures this down include some light, wet snow mainly above 8500ft...although we could see it briefly drop lower than that. The main area of concern for this will be the central mountains. During this period, the Snake Plain (410), Magic Valley (425), and South Hills/Albion Mountains (427), will see anywhere from a few hundredths to 0.20". For the southeast highlands (413), we are looking at 0.20-0.60". For the rest of central and eastern Idaho (411, 422, 475, and 476), look for 0.40" to around 1.0". With cooler temperatures and wetting rains coming, we do not anticipate any need for warnings over the weekend. Even with continued breezy conditions expected, any area that see gusts meeting critical fire condition threshold should be countered by much higher humidity. Light precipitation lingers on Monday before the low pulls into Montana. Warmer and drier conditions, at least in terms of humidity, will return by the middle of next week. Similar to what we have been seeing this week, there are weaker systems skirting through with limited moisture. This may set us up for another period of virga/light sprinkles, and a few thunderstorms.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ052>054-067. Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for IDZ422.