textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier conditions quickly settle in through Sunday

- Rain and snow slowly moves into the central mountains Monday, then spreads east through Tuesday

- Much colder temperatures arrive, with some potential for at least seeing snow falling at lower elevations

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1109 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

We have been watching widespread rain and snow this morning quickly diminishing, with pockets of light precipitation/showers continuing. By this evening, we are expecting just a few showers lingering along the Montana border. We are looking for dry conditions with temperatures briefly warming up Sunday, bouncing back about 5 degrees or so.

The next low begins to slowly push inland tomorrow night and Monday. Progression continues to slow, keeping the moisture pretty much over the central mountains through the afternoon. This will knock down temperature a couple of degrees over the central mountains and south-central Idaho, while little to no change forecast farther east. The storm finally swings across the state thorugh Tuesday night, but again we are still seeing a trend toward splitting like today's storm. That is creating uncertainty and low confidence in more specific and definitive totals for rain and snow. The latest forecast from the Blend of Models has general up 0.20" across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and low to mid elevation mountain valleys. For favored upslope areas (Wood River Valley and surrounding mountains, and along the Montana border) amounts are pushing 0.50". The pattern is somewhat similar across the South Hills/Albion Mountains through the Bear River Range. For other mountain ranges, we are pushing 0.25-0.35" at higher elevations. The bigger difference right now is snow levels. They should remain at 6500-8000ft before the storm impacts all of eastern Idaho on Tuesday. It will be a race between the colder air arriving and precipitation ending on the back side of the storm to see snow at lower elevations. Right now, snow levels remain between 5000-6500ft during that transition. The lower end of range for snow totals actually drops them low enough to see at least snow falling at lower elevations, but not necessarily sticking. That said, we are expecting some accumulating snow down to around 6000ft...but impactful snow amounts remaining above 7000ft. Just like with this storm, some of the ensembles and AI versions of these models are producing almost double the precipitation numbers than the Blend and WPC are officially forecasting. Looking back at this storm, early amounts actually ended up 25-50% higher than what the Blend and WPC was forecasting...especially in upslope areas and along the cold front. Something to watch as we quickly approach this round. Temperatures continue to trend colder mid to late next week. With the models all over the place with how the pattern may unfold, let's just say IF we do get some decent precipitation to fall with colder temperatures...snow at valley floors is certainly possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1029 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Radar imagery shows RA beginning to weaken and shift east away from the East Idaho terminals late this morning. MVFR CIGS remain in place immediately behind the RA, though upstream satellite imagery shows clearing working NNE toward BYI and SUN. Winds are expected to temporarily increase for BYI, PIH, and IDA as the clearing works into each terminal, and gusts could briefly reach 25-30kts before gradient relaxes. Trend will be toward CIGS increasing back to VFR at all sites through the remainder of the day, with winds dropping off to around or below 15kts after 00z. There is low confidence concern for pockets of fog to develop late tonight, but neither guidance nor high-res models show any indication so will keep VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.