textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions today with a fast moving cold front bringing the chance for snow showers this afternoon and evening.

- Cold unsettled conditions continue throughout the extended, with potential for light snow accumulations down to valley floors as early as Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Changes are in store as we end the month of November which has been seasonably mild and mostly dry with a much colder airmass moving into the region later tonight with snow chances looking increasingly likely later this weekend and into early next week. Afternoon satellite imagery shows cloud cover increasing across the region in association with a cold front that will blast through the area over the next few hours. Out ahead of this front, winds have increased across the Magic Valley and the lower Snake Plain, occasionally flirting with Wind Advisory criteria, but remaining just below at most locations. Winds will remain elevated in these areas until the front moves through the region later this afternoon and evening. As it does, it is expected to bring with it the potential for some brief snowfall with the highest probabilities focused across the Montana Divide area and into the eastern Highlands. Hi-res CAMs do now show the potential for some of these to make it into the Snake Plain later this evening specifically around Idaho Falls and around Pocatello. Temps will be above freezing but sounding profiles suggest at least a rain/snow mix at the onset of precip with a quick transition to snow possible, especially if precip rates are moderate to heavy in nature. That being said, given the short duration and warm ground temps, seems unlikely that much, if any, will accumulate during this short time period. Areas around Island Park, Driggs and into the eastern highlands could certainly see a quick inch or so fall along the front as it passes through the area.

Behind the front, temps will drop quickly into the teens and 20s overnight with some single digits likely as you get closer to the Yellowstone area. Afternoon highs tomorrow will remain in the 30s for most of eastern Idaho which will be one of the colder days we've seen in quite some time. It does look mostly dry though throughout the daylight hours with some occasional breaks in cloud cover likely but this will be short-lived as it appears our first real chance this fall for some accumulating valley snowfall arrives on Sunday. More on that below.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Models have trended wetter into early Sunday as weakly closed center of upper low tracks through East Idaho, and surface low sets up over northern Utah. These changes shift toward increasing snow potential across the southeast half of the forecast area south of a line from Driggs to Twin Falls. NBM means now support up to 2" of accumulation in the interstate corridor of the Snake Plain for Sunday (mainly morning), and 2-4" at higher elevations across the southern highlands, including the Bear River Range, South Hills, and Albion Mountains. A break is expected with a weak transitory ridge late Sunday into Monday, then the next upper trough drops through the region Tuesday. Another round of snowfall is expected mainly Tuesday focused over the highlands between I-15 and the WY border. Daytime high temperatures Sunday into midweek remain in the 30s, supporting snow down to valley floors. NBM deterministic low temperatures remain at the high end of the ensemble spread, indicating potential for colder overnight lows, especially Monday to Wednesday mornings. For the latter half of the week, the ensemble clusters in general hold on to unsettled northwest flow over East Idaho, but there are differences in the details that could impact if or how much precipitation falls during the Wednesday through Friday time frame. NBM mean holds on to periods of very light snows mainly over higher elevations throughout the time period, with deterministic daytime highs slowly working upward to around 40 degrees.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 459 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

A few aviation impacts to clean up this evening before we take a break. First, a cold front with rain and snow showers is currently dropping southeast across KDIJ and toward KPIH/KIDA. Confidence is still low as to whether or not showers will directly impact KIDA and KPIH, so have continued and refined timing to PROB30 groups with any impacts ending by 03-04z/8-9pm. Based on upstream observations, vsbys of 4SM or lower are likely at KIDA IF we can switch to snow and bring a heavier shower through. Impacts are much more certain and have already been observed at KDIJ with drops to IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs with rounds of snow moving through. This activity should also continue through 03-04z/8-9pm. Clouds lift and break up quickly behind the front along with a decrease in winds. Meanwhile, NBM/HRRR guidance advertises a brief window of fog/low stratus potential at KBYI between about 05-10z/10pm-3am before winds switch to NE and bring drier air down the Snake Plain into the eastern Magic Valley. Confidence here too is low on impacts to the terminal itself, so have hinted at this potential for now with VCFG and SCT008...will closely be monitoring satellite and area sfc obs. Thereafter, expect a break between systems with VFR conditions across the region that will last into the first part of Saturday night.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.