textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms confined to the central mountains through Saturday

- Gusty winds across the rest of eastern Idaho will lead to near-critical fire conditions with humidity near 15%

- Best chance of showers and storms will be Sunday into Labor Day

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will remain anchored over the central mountains through Saturday. There MIGHT be a few shower or storms elsewhere on a given day, but the chance right now is well under 10%. The best chance for appreciable rain across the central mountains will later tonight and again tomorrow night. For tonight, the potential is up to 0.40" across the Frank Church and Stanley Basin including the Wapiti burn scar. There is a 20-50% chance for over 0.50" tonight. For tomorrow night. Up to 0.33" is possible over the same area, with a a 5-15% chance for exceeding 0.50". Otherwise, the potential for more than 0.10-0.15" in a given 12 hour period is low. We will see a few thunderstorms, even during the overnight hours, which is likely pushing the models toward some of the higher rainfall amounts. Across the rest of eastern Idaho, expect breezy conditions at times through Sunday morning. Ahead of a boundary overnight, look for gusts of 25-35 mph (maybe 40 mph in some spots) from the south and southwest. Similar speeds are likely. Temperatures will rebound a bit through Sunday, with highs return to lower 80s across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and toward the Utah border.

The latest trends in the forecast for Sunday and Monday are toward most of the moisture from Marie not making it into Idaho. We will likely see some of this getting quickly pulled in as the closed low along the coast swings inland, but the bulk of it is directed through Utah and Wyoming. While we continue to see some decent swings in terms of just how much rain may fall, the trend in the past 24 hours has been to hold amounts down a bit from the highest end of the range of forecasts. For the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and South Hills/Albion Mountains...the WPC- based rainfall is 0.10-0.30". For the central mountains, 0.15-0.45" with locally higher amounts are expected. Across the eastern and southeast highlands, the latest shows 0.30-0.70". This is slightly above the "middle of the road" forecast from the Blend of Models. The higher end still wants to push totals over 1" across higher elevations, but the trend definitely lower than yesterday in terms of where those amounts could happen. Labor Day looks cool thanks to the rain and cloud cover, with most valley locations in the 50s and 60s with some low 70s south of the Snake River. The central mountains will see some highest elevations temperatures stuck in the 40s. We do dry out briefly before see more moisture trying to shift north for showers and thunderstorms for the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Proximity to upper low over the PacNW will keep SUN under the isolated threat of showers through the period, with a break expected this evening into the early morning hours. Otherwise high clouds remain in place with widespread VFR expected. Another round of breezy conditions return to the region overnight into early Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The pattern remains fairly locked in through Saturday across central and eastern Idaho. Outside of a few random showers or storms, the best chance will be across the central mountains...especially Zones 422 and 475. Wetting rains in any given 12 hour period will be low EXCEPT for tonight and tomorrow night. There is the potential for up 0.40" tonight and 0.30" tomorrow night, with low potential for amounts over 0.50". This will likely be aided by a few overnight thunderstorms and upslope into those zones. For the rest of eastern Idaho, look for gusty winds and marginal afternoon humidity which will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions at times. Through this evening, we are looking at 410, 413, 425, and 427 for this possibility. For Friday, mainly across 413, and for Saturday in 413 and 427. The best chance of showers and storms is still Sunday and Labor Day, although the best moisture from Marie looks to remain south and east of us. We will see a small amount pulled into the closed as it swings across the area. Highest amounts be across the higher elevations, especially Zones 411 and 413. Those areas may 0.40-0.70". For Zones 410, 425 and 427, the latest shows 0.10-0.30"...and the central mountains 0.15-0.45". We briefly dry out Tuesday, but showers and storms may return as soon as Wednesday as another area low pressure sets up along the coast and we pull in moisture from the southwest.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.