textproduct: Pocatello

LONG TERM

Saturday through New Year's Day. The long term forecast remains largely unchanged with our active pattern continuing through the weekend and into early next week as rounds of shortwaves pass through and tap into moisture from an ongoing atmospheric river. However, it looks like our lower elevation areas in the eastern Magic Valley through the lower Snake River Plain will generally remain near or just above freezing through most of this period which will result in more rain than snow. That said, it will have to be a bit of a case by case situation in working out some of the finer details once this gets into the short-term range. For now, the NBM shows a less than 10 percent chance of an inch of snow for the American Falls and Pocatello areas for the 48-hours leading up to Monday morning while Idaho Falls shows about a 25 percent chance of an inch of snow. In the Island Park area, it jumps to about a 60 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow. For the Pine Creek Pass the NBM shows about a 60 percent chance of at least 10 inches of snow with the potential for even higher amounts at Galena Summit and Emigration Summit. These totals will continue to change over the next few days, of course, but it still looks like impactful snow will continue at these higher elevations through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday both look breezy, but it looks downright windy Sunday night into Monday with some 40 to 50 mph wind gusts through the lower elevations not out of the question. As we transition into more northwesterly flow aloft by Monday and Tuesday it won't completely shut down our snow, but it will start to taper off gradually. It seems we may see some high pressure build back into the area around midweek, just in time for the New Year. AMM

AVIATION

12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday. Our next system is here with snow falling in SUN and moisture will continue working eastward throughout today. Precipitation is expected to be snowfall at almost all sites early this morning, though may briefly switch over to rain at BYI. VIS has already dropped to IFR conditions with the arrival of snow at SUN with IFR CIGs and VIS expected at all sites when SN arrives at terminals today. While the main push of moisture is moving through this morning, activity into the afternoon will continue, but now looks a bit more showery and almost convective in some of the CAMs. So, impacts will continue at times, but will be harder to pin down exact timings this afternoon. We get another lull in the activity late tonight into very early Friday morning. Winds are a bit breezy today at BYI, PIH, and IDA with gusts up to 25 kts. AMM

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for IDZ051>055-061- 067-069-071.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for IDZ056>060- 062>066-072>075.