textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through tomorrow evening. Gusty winds with a few brief bursts of rain expected

- Dry conditions still expected for the Fourth of July

- Warmer temperatures next week with some potential for thunderstorms starting back up on Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

We are still seeing these small ripples in the pattern helping kick of pockets of showers and thunderstorms. For today, it still appears the South Hills/Albion Mountains, eastern, and southeast highlands are the target. A few storms are also possible from Mackay through Gilmore Summit and Lone Pine. There is 30-50% chance for gusts over 35 mph through this evening. We continue to dry out, but with residual moisture left over from all of the recent moisture, there is the potential for some heavier storms to produce some decent downpours. We may see a few storms across the Snake Plain, especially with any outflow boundaries that emerge from higher terrain. Outside of storms, we are expecting some gusts out across the Lava Beds, Craters, and the INL around 25-30 mph. Even if we see a bit of mid level moisture tonight, it doesn't look like we will see and light rain or sprinkles and likely just some virga. For Friday, it looks very similar to today's potential pattern for any showers and storms across central and eastern Idaho. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb, with mid 70s to mid 80s tomorrow.

For the Fourth, we are still looking at no storms developing, but we will probably see a bit of virga. At the moment, any stronger wind gusts associated with that is almost zero at the moment. Overall wind gusts should be 15-25 mph, mostly during the afternoon/early evening, and strongest across ridgelines and across the Arco Desert.

For Sunday and beyond (and well timed), we are back into the potential for some thunderstorm potential starting Sunday. As high becomes re-established around the Four Corners, that allows for a monsoon-type pattern to emerge and see some moisture north into Idaho. Temperatures will continue to warm up, more 90s in the forecast, along with overall drier conditions. That means if and where we see thunderstorms, the overall pattern will be dry, or at least light rain-producing storms. This also means most development will occur across terrain, with more isolated coverage across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, minus any type of outflow-induced storms. Toward the end of next week, there is decent signal in the GFS, ECMWF, and the cluster forecasts for high pressure to settle in to our south. The question is how far west does it build and cut off any moisture. Most indications that we end up in west or southwest flow. Southwest flow would be warmer and dry with maybe still limited moisture impacting us. More westerly would be a bit cooler (relative to the other scenario) but definitely dry. Both patterns would be breezy.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Will see VFR conditions continue. Main forecast will be any thunderstorm impact this afternoon. For now only put a prob30 group at DIJ with vicinity showers at BYI. It is not impossible for development anywhere but think coverage a bit less than yesterday. Have some 20 knot wind gusts this afternoon at IDA and PIH as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The next couple of days will still feature very light precipitation and mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Today will be focused on areas from the Snake River southward. On Fri, it could be more spread out thanks to a trough pushing through Canada that has enough influence this far south to trigger something. The main problem area will likely be the northeast corner of the fire weather area of responsibility. High pressure will dominate the holiday weekend, warming temperatures and drying humidity. Afternoon humidity going below 15 percent will be limited to ares of the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley for today and Fri. The surging temperatures on Independence day will spread the dryness to the higher elevations in the southern highlands and southeast highlands. The very dry conditions will continue to expand to higher elevations with the overall subsidence.

Temperatures may level off from Thu to Fri after warming from yesterday to today, but stronger warming returns for Sat with peak temperatures likely to be Mon.

Not much risk of wind gusting to 25 mph until Tue afternoon when the upper level wind gets a chance to increase.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.