textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow increases during the day

- Occasional rain and/or snow continues into next week

- Above average temperatures will persist

UPDATE

Issued at 638 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

No major changes to the forecast, but did go ahead and add the Big Hole Mountains zone to the Winter Weather Advisory. This is mainly for travel impacts for Pine Creek Pass for 5-10 inches of snow. The 10 inches is definitely on the high end for the pass, but with at least 5-7 inches seeming likely, the Advisory was warranted.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover in place over the area today as moisture surges into the area. A well pronounced low moving into central California will sweep across the northern Great Basin over the next 24 hours. Radar returns have finally begun to pick up throughout the day as precip was slow to get started but rain, snow or a mix (depending on location/elevation) has been observed throughout much of area. As we progress through the evening, expect the precip to continue into the morning hours on Friday. SW flow aloft continues to warm the lower levels of the atmosphere and snow levels continue to rise. Based off latest hi-res model soundings, much of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley should see a cold rain with maybe a few flakes mixed in from time to time. Across the Upper Snake, namely around Idaho Falls, model soundings are more supportive of a mix or even all snow although surface temperatures are likely too marginal to support much, if any, accumulation from said snow. A light dusting is possible but by Friday AM, things should have changed over mostly rain in this area. Higher elevations, namely above 6500-7000 ft, will remain snow and some accumulations are expected. The Winter Weather Advisory continues for the Bear River Range which remains the most likely area to see some travel issues on Id-36 with the rest of the most significant snow focused across the highest peaks. Things will slowly begin to taper off later tomorrow and into Saturday before another round of moisture moves in later this weekend and into the first part of next week.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 150 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

After a break for most of the area on Saturday, precipitation returns to the region ahead of slowly advancing Pacific trough. Snow levels are expected to remain 5000-6500 ft Sunday through Monday, so rain is expected in the valleys with snow in the mountains. Cold front sags through the region Monday, bringing snow levels down to valley floors Monday night, but most of the precipitation should be over by then. Slightly cooler temperatures are in place for the remainder of the forecast period with weakly unsettled conditions over the higher elevations. Another front is expected Wednesday, bringing temperatures back to near normal by the end of the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1003 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Lots of uncertainty headed into the overnight hours. Models insistent on widespread IFR conditions except for perhaps BYI. Observations are not cooperating, at least not yet anyway. From a conceptual standpoint, with light winds and light precipitation continuing through the night, think we will see those IFR conditions at some point. Just a matter of when. Uncertain with SUN as well where the models show the precip ending soon. If the downvalley wind kicks in, could see them defying the models and losing the low cloud deck.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for IDZ060-064.