textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showery weather with low confidence of timing and amount for any location today through Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures, but still above climatic normals for the time of year through the period.

- Threat of precipitation is less, generally, starting Tuesday, and continuing low for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 128 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

WV satellite imagery shows upper low centered near central Nevada shifting northeast, with pair of amplified troughs in the Pacific. Broad area of showers is moving north through East Idaho early this afternoon. As upper low approaches Idaho later today, expect main focus for precipitation to shift to eastern highlands for the evening and overnight. Temperatures remain mild as cold front pushes northeast across the area. Snow levels stay elevated above 7000 feet during the night, but could see a bit of snow mix with the rain as low as 6500 feet by early Monday morning. Thus even at pass level accumulations should only be 1-3". Upper trough should be east of Idaho by early Monday but next split system is already along the coast. There is a weak 5H ridge in place for Monday, but showers will remain possible across the region, mostly focused over higher elevations. Temperatures are slightly colder than today with snow accumulations remaining above 7000 ft. The incoming system continues to split, leading to a decrease in precipitation through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 128 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Recent troubles with model consistency and agreement in the longer term continue today. The next system fully splits during the day Tuesday with the southern low closing over southern California, and the northern stream ejecting a small shortwave through the PacNW for a continued chance of showers. There are already significant model differences in how the systems evolve through the remainder of the forecast, and quite a bit of model spread for both precipitation and temperatures. The long range ensemble means continue the trend of developing a deep split flow across the western half of the US through the end of the week. Clusters portray the northern stream north of the US/Canada border with either a closed low or open trough near the Four Corners and Southern Rockies or off the California coast. In general both of these solutions should produce drier conditions for East Idaho, but the NBM maintains weak precipitation each period through Saturday. Additionally, NBM means support daytime high temperatures remaining in the 40s for the extended, but a stronger ridge could nudge highs back into the lower to mid 50s based on the probabilities.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 524 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

One more round of organized precipitation is approaching southeast Idaho from the south, and is forecast to transition across KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ tonight into Monday morning. Refined timing and impacts in the latest TAFs, with cig drops to MVFR expected at all three terminals which will linger into Monday afternoon after rain ends. Temperature profiles will be VERY marginal for rain vs. snow at KDIJ, and while most guidance holds dewpoints at or above 35 degrees supporting rain, evaporative cooling and melting processes may be just enough to at least mix in snow, thus we have nudged to -RASN with a vsby hit to 3SM from 09-18z/2-11am Monday. Even without snow, upstream observations from Utah support vsbys dropping to at least 4-5 SM under the steadier rainfall, while conditions may hold a bit better at KPIH and KIDA as both terminals will be along the western edge of the precip shield. Meanwhile, VCSH will end tonight at KSUN and KBYI with generally VFR conditions (low clouds are slowing thinning out as of this writing at KSUN). The region will be quite moist tonight...hard to rule out patchy fog or mist especially where there has been recent rainfall, but confidence is too low to latch onto any additional impacts in the forecast at this time.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.