textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm through Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Wet conditions Thursday and Friday and turning much colder Friday.

- Drying next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Deep southerly flow aloft setting in today through Thursday which will allow some moisture to return to southeast Idaho. Will see isolated mainly high elevation showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. As upper level low pressure approaches will see widespread rain both Thursday and Friday. Most areas around a 50 percent chance over 0.5 inches of precipitation. Snow levels drop to 7 to 8 thousand feet on Friday with at least a chance of accumulation above that level. Low elevation highs will be around 70 Tuesday through Thursday with mountains mid 50s to mid 60s. On Friday expect highs in the upper 30s to 40s mountains and 40s to around 50 valleys. By Sunday and Monday will rise to near normal in the 40s and 50s mountains and 50s to around 60 valleys.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the period. An upper-level low system off the coast of Oregon is expected to bring moist southerly flow to our area tomorrow. Expect the current clear skies to make way to mostly mid-level clouds by tomorrow morning and continuing into the afternoon tomorrow. Models are showing weak vicinity showers starting early tomorrow morning and continuing tomorrow afternoon for all sites except SUN. These showers are not expected to reach the ground. Winds will remain mostly light and variable overnight. Tomorrow afternoon look for mostly south southeasterly winds of around 6 to 12 kts. The HREF model shows a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms for BYI and PIH and less than 20 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms for all the other TAF sites. With cloud cover, thunderstorm development is not that likely. Have kept any mention of thunderstorms out of all TAFs for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Isolated showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in higher elevation with peak wind gusts around 20 mph or less both days. By Thursday an upper level low will move through the region and expect a high likelihood of wetting rains with amounts up to 1 inch in some locations mainly the southern and eastern mountains. Will have very warm temperatures through Thursday with significant cooling Friday into Saturday. Will warm back to normal by Sunday and next Monday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.