textproduct: Pocatello

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A significant, prolonged wind event remains the primary concern across East Idaho today through Saturday as strong west-to- northwest flow aloft mixes down to lower elevations. Current observations indicate that the HIGH WIND WARNING and WIND ADVISORY are well placed with gusts approaching or exceeding 60 mph in places. A few ITD cameras show intermittent blowing dust, but the lack of widespread visibility restrictions have kept the impact localized for now, mainly north and east of Idaho Falls. Patchy blowing dust has been added to the grids through the evening as winds are expected to peak late this afternoon. The winds will subside late this evening, but are expected to remain gusty and just below advisory levels for the Snake Plain through Friday morning.

Expect another ramp-up in winds during the day Friday, though not quite to today's intensity. Additional WIND ADVISORIES will likely be required once current headlines expire. Looking ahead to Saturday, a second strong surge in winds is forecast to produce winds that may approach or exceed today's values. Probabilistic guidance shows a 60-85% chance of maximum gusts exceeding 55 mph for nearly the entire Snake River Plain on Saturday. A few locations could approach or exceed 70 mph based on the latest guidance. Have added another round of patchy blowing dust to the forecast for Saturday given the similarity to today. Expect additional WIND ADVISORIES and/or HIGH WIND WARNINGS.

The persistent westerly flow will continue to produce periods of light mountain snow across the central mountains and eastern highlands through Saturday. While NBM liquid precipitation totals range from 0.50-1.25" across the region, most of this should be concentrated to the higher mountain ranges north of the Wood River region. Continued the trend of paring back the heaviest precipitation in the forecast where the higher resolution models appear to be overdoing the orographic assent and unrealistic totals. Further east, the liquid totals for the eastern highlands should still range 0.30-0.80", highest across the Big Hole Range and north along the Wyoming border to the Centennials. Snow totals for backcountry peaks range as high as 6-9" but most major roadways including passes should be much less with minimal travel impacts. Will continue to hold off on any winter related headlines for now.

By Sunday, a strong ridge builds over the West, leading to high confidence in a sharp warming trend starting Monday. There is a 55% chance of reaching 70 degrees for highs across the Snake Plain by Tuesday, and at least a 45% chance of reaching 80 degrees south and west of Blackfoot by Wednesday and Thursday. Daily record highs will likely be challenged starting Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1047 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The front pushing through is dry enough where only KDIJ needs to worry about SHRA and marginal VFR conditions for both VSBY and CIG during the late afternoon through morning hours. The bigger concern and main forecast problem is the wind. NBM guidance for KPIH and KIDA indicates wind in excess of 25KT with gusts as strong as 45KT until 13/03Z or so, when it decreases to 20G30KT, with similar but lighter wind for KSUN, KDIJ, and KBYI. However, reality has some of the strongest wind right now at KDIJ. While KBYI and KSUN wind is not yet gusty and is actually light comparatively.

HRRR guidance for wind shows a more realistic ebb and flow overnight, though currently is not matching the windspeed. So use higher windspeed and tried to use the timing of the latest HRRR. So the wind subsides much more than NBM guidance suggests, but by 13/11Z wind has become gusty except for KBYI and KSUN. All in all, however, with little agreement between the best deterministic model, the dampened simplicity of a blended model, and reality, this is a low confidence wind forecast. Fortunately, the traditional wind directions means that no cross wind problem should arise from these very strong speeds.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-055-057- 058-062-067-068-070. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054- 056-065.