textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Monsoonal moisture remains in place through next week for more showers and thunderstorms.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds and hail. With the potential for heavy downpours Friday a flash flood watch is in effect Friday afternoon and evening for the Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley.

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate based on early day cloud cover. Sunday and Monday likely the hottest days and also the driest days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Southerly flow aloft continues today into Saturday with showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening across southeast Idaho. Some potential downpours may occur under strong storms with localized heavy rain and flooding possible. The Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley under a flash flood watch. Saturday will still see at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The southerly flow backs off Sunday and the monsoonal moisture may be temporarily blocked from entering Idaho and is likely to be the driest and least covered thunderstorm day in the next week. Low elevation highs likely in the 90s both Saturday and Sunday with likely more sun than today. Mountain highs in the 80s. See an increase in southerly flow again Tuesday with another wetter period Tuesday into the middle portion of next week. Have at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday through next Friday. Maybe slightly cooler high temperatures in expected cloud cover in the extended time frame with 80s to lower 90s valleys and mid 70s to mid 80s mountains, but overnight lows very elevated in the continued humidity and periodic cloud cover.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 418 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Main concern is scattered thunderstorms this evening. Storms could reduce visibilities to at least mvfr levels and possibly lower. Gusts to around 35 kts are certainly possible in and around storms as well. Most activity should dissipate this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoonal moisture remains entrenched over central and eastern Idaho. RED FLAG WARNINGS remain in place across higher elevations today for scattered thunderstorms. Have started to see development early this afternoon across the region and although some will be very wet under the strongest cells not everyone will see wetting rains with them. Expect most outflow winds to be in the 30 to 40 mph range due to lack of heating from cloud cover today but could still see isolated gusts higher than that. Hail is also likely under the stronger storms.

Showers and storms on Saturday will most likely remain over higher elevations but even low elevations are at risk for isolated storms, with any development across 410 and 425 relying on outflow boundaries for a focus. There is a 30-60% chance tomorrow for gusts over 35 mph and we could still see some locally heavy rainfall with a few storms. Sunday SUPPOSEDLY ends up pretty dry with storm chances under 10% and hot conditions. This seems to be a bit aggressive, in terms of drying things out, and we may end up actually with at least isolated storms closer to the Montana and Utah borders.

More southerly flow aloft returns Tuesday after a bit of a break Sunday and Monday with likely showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday through next week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ411-413- 422-427-475-476.