textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Another Drastic Temperature Swing Coming: Afternoon highs have plummeted 20+ degrees since Wednesday, and another sharp drop is expected Sunday as temperatures struggle to reach the mid-40s to lower 50s.

- Breezy Conditions and Lake Wind Impacts: Lake Wind Advisory for the American Falls Reservoir due to sustained west winds up to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph and Wind Advisory for the Upper Snake and Arco Desert

- Frost and Freeze Risk: Winter-like conditions return late this weekend, with frost or freeze products likely needed for growing zones Sunday through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery is once again void of much appreciable cloud cover. Only a few mid/high level clouds can be seen and these are pretty isolated. Nearly seasonal temps continue this afternoon despite the clearer skies with breezy west-to- southwest winds of 1525 mph continuing along with higher gusts which will remain in place through the evening. Lake Wind/Wind Advisories continue accordingly because of the winds with another likely needed for Saturday as winds look very similar to today.

A significant pattern shift arrives this weekend as a potent trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. While cloud cover increases overnight tonight and into Saturday, the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until Sunday or Monday. Sunday will mark the coldest point of the transition, with highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s a shocking change from just a few days ago. This system will likely bring light snow to the central mountains and eastern highlands, and while a few flakes could drift into the Snake Plain, significant impacts there are unlikely. Some light accumulations across the higher terrain certainly seems likely. Temperatures will stay below seasonal averages until mid-to-late next week as the trough slowly exits the area with temps not likely to return to seasonal levels until Wednesday at the earliest. Late next week and into next weekend looks like an opportunity for temps to climb to above normal levels once again but this is still far out in time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 505 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Stronger winds should begin to diminish by mid evening. We will start seeing an increase in clouds in the next 24 hours, but even at this point nothing is expected to drop below VFR at any TAF site. Most of the precipitation remains north of even SUN and DIJ based on the latest trends. Winds do increase again mid to late morning for all TAF sites. Gusts of 15-30kts are forecast. Of note, we may see a shorter wind of southerly winds at SUN tomorrow afternoon. This pattern tends to favor a switch to a westerly wind with some gusts, and an earlier switch to northwest. At this point, when the wind switches to northwest, expect a decent headwind trying to land.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052-053.