textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Holiday Weekend: Temperatures will quickly rise into the 70s and 80s through Monday. Memorial Day will be the warmest day of the stretch, with lower elevations reaching the mid-to- upper 80s.

- Showers and Storms: Precipitation chances increase slightly Sunday near the Utah/Wyoming borders before shifting to the central mountains on Memorial Day.

- Mid-Week Pattern Shift: A closed low pressure system arrives Tuesday and lingers through late next week, bringing cooler, more seasonal temperatures in the 60s and 70s alongside daily rain and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

As low pressure develops to our west, mid level moisture continues to cross the region. This will set the stage for some light showers/sprinkles and thunderstorms today and Memorial Day, along with warming temperatures. We are still expecting many locations to top out in the 80s each day. In terms of any shower or storms, we are already see mid level clouds overhead this morning. While not likely, we could see some early sprinkles or light rain. By afternoon, there are two main areas of showers and storms expected. One continue to remain south of the Snake River, with the other extending from around Mackay and Gilmore Summit through Island Park. The bigger issue will likely be gusty winds as there is a 30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph with some gusts possible exceeding 45 mph. We should see that wind down for the most part by midnight. The next round shifts more into the central mountains on Monday, although we may end up see a few showers and storms elsewhere as well. There is a 50-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph across the central mountains and Magic Valley, and 30-50% chance elsewhere. Highest gusts tomorrow could exceed easily exceed 50 mph based on the latest ensemble forecasts for thunderstorm wind gusts. Outside of any virga or thunderstorms, it will be breezy but remaining below any thresholds for headlines.

We are seeing some common trends developing for Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears the closed low still moves inland but drops initially over the Sierras and really doesn't move much. We will still see an increase in moisture for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms, but temperatures will end up warmer as flow over the state remains from the south. We are now looking at 70s and low 80s for Tuesday and 70s for Wednesday. The range of temperatures still remains pretty wide both days. If the trend keeps the low farther southwest, the higher end of the forecasts with temperatures in the 70s and 80s may end up reality. The low end of the range has warmed up a bit, but still is in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Wednesday. With the low holding up a bit, better chance of showers, storms and cooler temperatures holds off until Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 407 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR weather is expected, even with an increase in overall mid level cloud cover. There will be some light showers/virga around today. Thunderstorms are possible especially south of the Snake Plain, with gusts 30-40kts possible. BYI is the only TAF site that has a high enough potential for thunderstorms to be worth a mention, and we are maintain PROB30 at the moment.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Warmer weather continues through Memorial Day, with some light showers/sprinkles and a few thunderstorms. Best chance for any virga and thunderstorms today will be across Zones 422 and 475 in the central mountains, 427, 411, and 413. There is 30-70% chance for gusts over 35 mph especially south of the Snake River, with higher end gusts reaching 45 mph. On Monday, the better chance of development shifts to the central mountains, although isolated showers and storms are possible elsewhere. The potential for strong gusts increases tomorrow with a corridor of 50-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph across the central mountains south across the Magic Valley (425), with peak gusts easily exceeding 50 mph. There chance elsewhere is still elevated at 30-50%. There has been a shift in the pattern for midweek, as the low ends up potentially parked over the Sierras for a couple of days. The main impact will be to keep temperatures warmer, although not quite as warm as today and Monday. Moisture continues to stream north which will keep a decent shot at wetting rains along with thunderstorms in the forecast. The low appears to finally shift across Idaho Thursday and Friday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.