textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued moderate northeast flow in Snake River plain means Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls Reservoir.

- Warming and drying starts today, with humidity reaching critically dry thresholds at most low elevations by Tuesday.

- Winds return Tuesday afternoon, potentially causing critical fire weather conditions that continue through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The "storm" track, if you can call it that, in western North America continues to drop lows from northern Canada southward but staying east of the Continental Divide. Despite upper level lows in MT, The surface feature continues to be high pressure to the north and northwest to northeast flow at the surface while upper levels are northwest. The wind once again should reach Lake Wind Advisory levels for the northeast wind situation at the American Fall Reservoir. On Monday, an approaching surface low in Canada drops into MT east of the divide, and breaks up this northeast flow pattern for the Snake River plain. By afternoon, wind should be the more usual southwest to west wind, while it remains light. By Tue afternoon the next low is stronger and wind will be strong enough to cause some areas to have gusts to 25-30 mph. With afternoon mixing, it is likely that this afternoon gusty wind will spread eastward and not let up until Fri.

There appears to be some moisture above 700mb moving through occasionally over the next three days. Today it is here in mostly the morning, then Mon the same, then again on Mon evening. The farther north, the more it may reach partly sunny to mostly cloudy. In no way will it generate any shower activity in the forecast area; this is true through Sat.

Today temperatures will be up slightly, but once the northerly flow shuts down, temperatures will spike upward for Tue and stay very warm for the time of year through the rest of the forecast period. Thankfully, this means the air cannot cool down to provoke any type of Frost or Freeze product. Nothing record setting as even at low elevations the peak temperatures will be in the lower 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 433 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Some cloudiness has infiltrated from the east side of the continental divide, and so there are some clouds, but instability is low and thus no TS/SHRA expected from any of this. Most affected are the northern airdromes: KSUN, KDIJ, and KIDA. Low but still VFR CIGs at KDIJ and KIDA, but conditions go SKC-SCT by early afternoon. VSBY is unaffected.

So it is again a challenging wind shift day. KSUN appears mostly normal with morning downslope, shifting to a south to southwest wind for the afternoon, staying at 10KT or below. KDIJ is VRB for wind save for the afternoon when northwest wind sets up for mid-afternoon to mid-evening. KBYI is mostly east with some strong wind first thing after sunrise, but settling down and finally shifting during the evening to the downslope south southwesterly flow. For KIDA and KPIH, it will be all north to northeast wind today, peaking in the morning, then decreasing during the afternoon, but becoming north to northeast again late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A warming and drying trend is setting up and will bring afternoon humidity into the critical values below 15 percent as early as today in western portions and by Tuesday everywhere at the low elevations, save for the Targhee portion of the Caribou-Targhee NF. An incoming low will kick up wind as early as Tue afternoon and continue the strong wind Wed and Thu. Critical fire weather conditions will be here as fuel moisture continues to drop. Depending on how fast those reach critical levels, then there may be Red Flag Warnings needed Wednesday and Thursday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.