textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record highs possible through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures 20-25 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE

- A few showers or storms possible today and Tuesday, with better chances for midweek

- Breezy conditions expected today and Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Warmer temperatures are expected through Wednesday ahead of the next main storm crossing the state. The race is still on to see who indeed hits 90 degrees tomorrow or Wednesday. The low potential for hitting 95 is almost gone now, but still a high potential of most areas hitting 90 either or both days. With a weak system passing to our north today, we are looking a few storms, more likely just virga though, across Island Park into western Wyoming. For tomorrow, limited moisture surges north across the area ahead of that midweek low. It should be just enough for a thunderstorm or two, but like today it should be mostly virga. Any real potential for that will extend from the South Hills across the Magic Valley and into the central mountains. A better chance arrives on Wednesday especially across the central mountains. There is some concern that these storms, while producing some light rain, may end up producing strong downburst winds. Looking at the overall wind pattern and forecast, the breezy conditions today will subside later this evening. However, Wednesday is POSSIBLY looking fairly windy out there. The latest Blend of Models is hitting WIND ADVISORY thresholds and trying to push to HIGH WIND WARNING levels in some places. There are two concerns here. This is a huge jump in the past 24 hours, and it is possible the forecast is too high. The other possibility is that the higher resolution models that go into the Blend are picking up on strong outflow winds and contaminating the forecast. We are content to leave it alone and see what happens with later runs of the Blend before jumping onboard fully with any major shift like this. Even if the Blend is way off base, it will still be breezy out there.

The chance of showers and isolated storms will continue into Thursday. All of the models have trended faster with swinging that low across the state and into Montana. The latest Blend forecast does reflect that and keeps precipitation, especially up north until the low clears later Thursday. In typical May fashion, we are going from record/near record highs back into the 50s and 60s, potentially just below average on Thursday. This does include the potential for some light snow on the highest ridgetops and peaks. We warm up briefly back into the 70s on Friday, but right back into the 50s and 60s over the weekend as overall low pressure settles in for a bit across the western states.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions expected across the region through the period as high pressure continues to amplify over eastern Idaho. The pressure gradient remains tight as a shortwave to the north of us will keep winds breezy today. Gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range are expected everywhere outside of KSUN. As the shortwaves shift away, high pressure builds in later tonight and throughout Tuesday allowing for mostly clear skies and light winds as we get into the day tomorrow.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.