textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated Mountain Showers: High-resolution REFS guidance indicates isolated shower chances across the Central and eastern mountains this evening, possibly as far south as Bear Lake, but the vast majority of eastern Idaho will remain dry.

- Building Weekend Ridge: Models remain steadfast on establishing an upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West Friday through early next week, guaranteeing prolonged dry and tranquil conditions.

- Warmer Temperatures By Weekend: Temperatures will run near normal through Friday before climbing 7 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, pushing lower- elevation highs toward 60F.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Satellite imagery shows an elongated trough axis working across Idaho today, streaming predominantly mid- and high-level cloud cover over eastern Idaho. Deterministic models continue to resolve very isolated showers over portions of the central mountains and the Montana Divide. In addition, recent high-res CAM runs (RRFS/HRRR/REFS) have initiated a few light showers across the southeast corner late this afternoon into early this evening. Expected QPF remains negligible to trace amounts, so despite snow levels hovering around 7,0008,000 feet, impacts will be minimal to non-existent. Behind the departing trough axis, an upper-level ridge builds back across the region for the weekend. This will establish dry, pleasant fall conditions with mostly sunny skies, generally light winds, and a steady warming trend, pushing daytime highs back above normal once again.

A weak dry shortwave passes to the north on Sunday, momentarily flattening the ridge. The only sensible impact expected from this feature is a minor bump in afternoon wind speeds across exposed terrain and the Snake River Plain. High temperatures will continue to run roughly 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms into early next week, reaching the 50s and lower 60s across much of Southeast Idaho.

A similar weak wave approaches on Tuesday, potentially supporting a low-end shower chance across far northern zones. Confidence remains very low and dry conditions will largely prevail for most of the region. Looking further out, ensemble means favor the upper ridge breaking down during the latter half of the week into the weekend, introducing an increasing chance of showers across the region by Thursday. Ensemble clusters are split between maintaining an amplified ridge over the Intermountain West and pushing the trough inland. There is a lot of room for fluctuation in either direction by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 439 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

A weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough exiting the area overnight will have some mid to high level clouds lingering until 06z with no anticipated aviation impacts in the lower elevations. Mountains near KDIJ may have their tops covered in clouds until after 08z. Skies will clear from west to east this evening in wake of the departing shortwave trough. VFR conditions to persist into tomorrow as high pressure builds in from the west, with SKC perhaps giving way to a few high clouds. Low probabilities exist for patchy fog particularly at KIDA and KDIJ overnight/Friday morning, but probabilities of MVFR conditions are currently near or below 20 percent so will omit any mention from the TAFs. Winds will remain light through the period, with typical diurnal up/down-valley flow at KSUN.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.