textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Damaging wind gusts and patchy blowing dust will continue through the evening, with a second surge of strong winds for Saturday.

- Periods of light mountain snow will persist through Saturday, primarily above 6000 ft, leading to occasional winter travel conditions on a few area passes.

- A major warming trend arrives next week. Valley temperatures will likely reach the 70s by mid week, and some areas could see 80 degree highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A significant, prolonged wind event remains the primary concern across East Idaho today through Saturday as strong west-to- northwest flow aloft mixes down to lower elevations. Current observations indicate that the HIGH WIND WARNING and WIND ADVISORY are well placed with gusts approaching or exceeding 60 mph in places. A few ITD cameras show intermittent blowing dust, but the lack of widespread visibility restrictions have kept the impact localized for now, mainly north and east of Idaho Falls. Patchy blowing dust has been added to the grids through the evening as winds are expected to peak late this afternoon. The winds will subside late this evening, but are expected to remain gusty and just below advisory levels for the Snake Plain through Friday morning.

Expect another ramp-up in winds during the day Friday, though not quite to today's intensity. Additional WIND ADVISORIES will likely be required once current headlines expire. Looking ahead to Saturday, a second strong surge in winds is forecast to produce winds that may approach or exceed today's values. Probabilistic guidance shows a 60-85% chance of maximum gusts exceeding 55 mph for nearly the entire Snake River Plain on Saturday. A few locations could approach or exceed 70 mph based on the latest guidance. Have added another round of patchy blowing dust to the forecast for Saturday given the similarity to today. Expect additional WIND ADVISORIES and/or HIGH WIND WARNINGS.

The persistent westerly flow will continue to produce periods of light mountain snow across the central mountains and eastern highlands through Saturday. While NBM liquid precipitation totals range from 0.50-1.25" across the region, most of this should be concentrated to the higher mountain ranges north of the Wood River region. Continued the trend of paring back the heaviest precipitation in the forecast where the higher resolution models appear to be overdoing the orographic assent and unrealistic totals. Further east, the liquid totals for the eastern highlands should still range 0.30-0.80", highest across the Big Hole Range and north along the Wyoming border to the Centennials. Snow totals for backcountry peaks range as high as 6-9" but most major roadways including passes should be much less with minimal travel impacts. Will continue to hold off on any winter related headlines for now.

By Sunday, a strong ridge builds over the West, leading to high confidence in a sharp warming trend starting Monday. There is a 55% chance of reaching 70 degrees for highs across the Snake Plain by Tuesday, and at least a 45% chance of reaching 80 degrees south and west of Blackfoot by Wednesday and Thursday. Daily record highs will likely be challenged starting Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1001 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Main impacts continue to be wind. Expect gusts up to 30kts at IDA and PIH through the night. SUN will probably turn a downvalley wind although there are some questions of how long they may hold that with some of the guidance showing variable or a light upvalley wind developing around 12z. Expect strong gusty crosswinds once again at SUN around midday. With gusty winds expected at other taf sites as well through the afternoon. Showers will continue to flirt with DIJ but most likely avoid them. Looks like a 30% chance throughout the entire taf period of showers at DIJ. If it were to occur, may see a brief period of mvfr conditions.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ052>054-065.