textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing wind Monday. A WIND ADVISORY is in effect for portions of the Snake River Plain. Blowing dust will be possible.

- Cooler conditions most of next week with the potential for rain and high mountain snow

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Today is the last day of warm temperatures before the next series of systems impacts the region. Satellite imagery shows tough off/along the BC Canada coast today. Flat flow aloft over the PacNW and Idaho is breaking down the ridge and beginning to shift it east. Surface observations indicate winds are beginning to increase across the northern portions of the Snake Plain, particularly across the Arco Desert. Although a few sites may approach or slightly exceed WIND ADVISORY thresholds, do not believe this will be a widespread event today. Pockets of blowing dust remain possible, but impacts to travel are not anticipated. As the cold front slides through the region tomorrow afternoon, winds are expected to increase above today's levels. NBM probabilities support max gusts across the Arco Desert and Upper Snake Plain zones of 45-55 mph tomorrow afternoon, generally north of a line from Carey to Blackfoot. The chance of max gusts exceeding 45 mph has increased to 65-85% for these areas, and is about 45% for exceeding 55 mph across the Arco Desert. What makes this interesting is that the max gusts could be confined to along the cold front with a little bit of convective influence. Regardless, winds should be strong enough with a threat of blowing dust to issue a WIND ADVISORY for Monday afternoon and early evening. Showers accompany the front, but should be light. Still would not be surprised to see a lone thunderstorm develop along the front, especially afternoon across or near the Island Park region.

Recent model runs still hang up the front along the southern highlands or just south of the forecast area overnight Monday night, then shift it back north through the day Tuesday ahead of shortwave feature shifting through northern California/Nevada. As a result, precipitation chances have increased for Tuesday. There should be a brief break as this feature departs and the moisture from the next Pacific low moves into the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Wet conditions continue into Thursday as next frontal system works through the region. Thursday could also be the next potential day for strong winds behind the second cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday, now projected to drop to slightly below normal. Liquid QPF amounts have also increased for this time period, and the cooler temperatures do increase the potential for snow levels to reach to valley floors, especially Thursday night. Given the recent model adjustments in the near to mid term, there is not a lot of confidence in specific details working one way or another. But confidence remains high in a cool and unsettled pattern for Wednesday and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Yet another dry trough moving through. Plenty of cloud decks in the mid- and upper levels, with some even getting down to 5000ft to 6000ft AGL. However CIGs are not expected, except at KSUN on Mon afternoon. VSBY remains unrestricted.

The fact that another Wind Advisory has been issued for Mon indicates the strength of the wind that should develop with elevated wind for the early morning at 10KT to 15KT, then by late morning with G25KT, and by early afternoon G25KT to G35KT. KPIH expected to peak with G30KT. KIDA, KDIJ, and KSUN should all gust to around 35KT, and KBYI the least windy at G25KT, and only when KBYI is well behind the surface frontal boundary. Directions are not unusual, so for most airdromes the wind and main runways should align. KSUN expected to have a brief period of south southeasterly wind in the morning, but the frontal passage will occur there first, with northwest flow setting up between 30/22Z and 30/23Z. KSUN may have an issue with LLWS if surface wind does not go southwesterly in the late morning.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ052-053.