textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat expected through Monday with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Sunday. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for much of Southeast Idaho. - Drier weather now into early next week. Red Flag Warnings in effect for central Idaho today and Sunday for combination of low humidity and wind.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Mostly dry conditions expected today and into Monday as well. A monsoon push of moisture is trying to work around the center of a high pressure area now situated to our east. Models are indicating a few virga showers possible across the eastern highlands this afternoon. Confidence isn't strong enough to mention them in the forecast. Potential a few more of these showers on Monday across the high country but once again low confidence at this time. The bigger impacts for today and tomorrow are the heat. We've upgraded several heat advisories into warnings now that models are consistently forecasting highs near all-time records and heat risk values are showing a few more 3s and 4s which point to potentially more severe impacts. Am concerned if high cirrus or even a few cumulus build-up could restrict us from reaching these temps, but models have been very consistent with the cloud cover as well. Temps are just a touch cooler Monday as the center of the high moves further into the northern Plains.

As we move into Monday night and Tuesday, we see a stronger push of moisture moving into the region. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across central Idaho. Temps are a couple degrees cooler with additional cloud cover and the high moving further away. As we move into middle and late week, the main story will be thunderstorm potential with the monsoon flow nearby. Anticipating that some heavy rain could be possible if the monsoon sets squarely up on top of us. Temps continue to look warm through late week with many lower elevations seeing highs in the lower and mid 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 152 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts at many of the TAF sites this afternoon. SUN will likely switch to upvalley around 17z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Red flag warning is in effect for 410, 411 and 476 where combinations of breezy conditions and low humidity will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. Expect lighter winds for Monday but critically low humidity will remain until Tuesday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ051>059-064- 065. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-476. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ060>063-066>068-070- 075.