textproduct: Pocatello
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Very warm through Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms Today and Wednesday.
- Wet conditions Thursday and Friday and turning much colder Friday.
- Drying this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Forecast hasn't changed significantly with regards to the next system. The low pressure system will stall off the coast of central California today and stay there into Wednesday. The low will begin to move inland on Thursday and then weaken and pass over eastern Idaho Friday. The low will depart the region by Saturday. Expect isolated showers and storms Today through Wednesday with very little rainfall expected. Rain chances increase on Thursday with rain likely overspreading the region Thursday night into Friday. The rain should come to an end by Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts are still quite uncertain and dependent upon rain intensity and the exact track of the low through the region. The mean qpf from the NBM continues to show 1.00 to 1.50 inches across East Idaho with 0.50 to 1.00 over the Magic Valley into the central mountains. The 10th percentile still supports 0.50 to 1.00 inches for East Idaho with 0.10 to 0.50 inches for the Magic Valley and central mountains. However the 90th percentile paints 1.50 to 2.00 inches across the entire region. The forecast qpf from WPC favors the 25th percentile. Snow with this event will probably not be terribly impactful. Snow levels may fall to pass level as the precipitation is about to exit the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal into Thursday. Looks like a 20 to 25 degree drop in temperatures between Thursday and Friday for highs.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
A few virga showers may encroach upon TAF sites today. However not expecting significant impacts. Winds should remain relatively light today.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Wednesday. Rainfall amounts should be very light. Widespread wetting rains will arrive Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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