textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional rain and snow showers continue.

- Breezy conditions today

- Cold unsettled conditions continue throughout the extended, with potential for light snow accumulations down to valley floors at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1157 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

We will see 2 separate lows drop southeast across the state. On today and tonight, the other coming in for Sunday. We will gradually see light showers increase this morning, although quite a bit of this especially outside of the central mountains may not amount to anything but some sprinkles or flurries. By afternoon, the main focus for rain and snow shifts out of the central mountains and into the Snake Plain, eastern and southeast highlands. We will be watching as the cold front drops into eastern Idaho for the potential for an enhanced band (hybrid cold front/upslope band) from around Pocatello up through Idaho Falls, Rexburg and into the Teton Valley. Right now, we are cranking out additional precipitation amounts other than a couple of hundredths, but there is a 15-35% chance of more than 0.10" especially on the benches. The rest of the area will generally see 0.10" or less, with some higher mountain ranges pushing toward 0.25". Locally higher amounts are possible across the eastern and southeast highlands. Snowfall-wise, that only equates to a couple of inches...with some spots in the Big Holes, Tetons and Bear River Range trying to eek out 3-4". We could see limited travel impacts for Pine Creek Pass, going up to Teton Pass, and Emigration Summit. Winds will pick up, with gusts 25-40 mph being common across the area. Gusts over 40 mph could occur across higher ranges, and where we get cold air spilling out of Montana and the central mountains. We aren't currently thinking any impacts with wind or wind and snow will be huge.

We get a break, before the next low drops across the state for the end of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. There are still some subtle differences in terms of where the low wants to track and if it splits in the process, but current trends put the bulk of the snow across the South Hills, Albion Mountains, and southeast highlands. In those areas, we are currently forecast 0.10"-0.40" of moisture, with up to 0.10" along the 84/86 corridor including the benches. Most areas would see anywhere from a dusting to a couple of inches. We could see 2-6" for places like Pomerelle and the Bear River Range. We will need to monitor the track of that low to see what we need to adjust. Today begins a drastic drop in temperatures. We will still be about 10 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE, but dropping to around AVERAGE for the weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 128 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

A cooler air mass is in place for heading into Monday, with daytime highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the teens. Once again the deterministic NBM temps are outliers to the spreads, so could see some changes in forecast temperatures moving into the weekend. Following a break in the precipitation Monday, next shortwave drops into the region Tuesday. Differences in the ensemble clusters are starting to become more amplified this far out, leading to differences in precipitation potential for East Idaho. Temperatures still look cold enough to sustain snow or brief mix in the afternoon with potential for light accumulations even to valley floors. Looking ahead to the latter half of the week, ensembles diverge significantly, with a roughly 60/40 split between rebuilding a ridge across the west or introducing a faster system to the PacNW. There is little certainty by the time we reach the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 431 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Rain and snow showers will increase later today and end this evening from west to east. For SUN, showers for the most part should NOT impact the airport. We do flirt with MVFR in the TAF for a few hours. The latest trend with wind is to NOT switch to an upvalley flow at all. We followed that trend with West to Northwest winds throughout the TAF period. At BYI, we kept any mention of showers or VCSH out of the forecast...as trends continue to put most of the precipitation east of there. We did bring things down to MVFR this evening for now. At PIH, IDA, and DIJ... we do bring VCSH, PROB30, or -SHRASN for those TAF sites for late this afternoon into the evening. We have MVFR/IFR conditions during this timeframe. In terms of wind, we have gusts of 25-35kts in for BYI, PIH and IDA. At SUN, we have gusts up to 20kts this afternoon through early evening.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.