textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through tomorrow evening with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms

- Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon across the southern highlands along the Utah border due to thunderstorms, and potentially again Wednesday

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the week with hot conditions likely for the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected across two main areas through tonight. The first is currently ongoing and should expand in coverage is south of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. The expectation is to see some seepage (likely outflow-related) into the Magic Valley and Snake Plain around Pocatello and Blackfoot. We will see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with this batch, along with a 50-90% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph. There is a MARGINAL RISK in this area for strong winds. The other area across the mountains from around Mackay through Island Park. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph and just a small chance of rain and thunder. There will likely be outflow across other areas and MAYBE some thunderstorms developing along those boundaries, but confidence in any one location seeing that right now is too low to forecast. We will This should last past midnight in some spots but pretty much done by sunrise. Tomorrow's round is likely a little more widespread, but the two more concentrated areas will be in the central mountains through Island Park and higher elevations south of the Snake Plain. The potential for strong outflow winds is very similar to tomorrow, but increased a bit overall due to increased coverage.

Starting Thursday and through the weekend, dry and hot conditions are still expected. Highs by the weekend, especially Sunday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. The highest end range is still pushing hotter spots closer to 105, but that is likely a combination of full sunshine and potentially ongoing bias with the Blend of Models in more extreme heat events. It is something worth watching however at this point. The trend is still showing high pressure building in, BUT the center of the ridge may stay far enough east to allow limited monsoon moisture arriving by Monday, and deeper moisture toward the middle of next week. At the moment, the Blend is forecasting this type of trend starting Monday. There is still a fairly even split on WHEN the deeper moisture might arrive, based on where the ridge centers itself. Half (or close to half) keep it still far enough west to hold off until mid-week, while the rest bring it in as soon as Monday. Daily high temperatures in that type of pattern will be highly dependent on the amount of clouds and storms around each day. At the moment, temperatures will likely stay in the 90s for the most part as a general trend. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 155 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Main concern is scattered thunderstorms this afternoon producing strong, gusty erratic winds near TAF sites. Most sites will carry at PROB30 this afternoon. SUN is the exception with most models keeping convection south of them. There is a slight chance that some showers could work in at SUN in the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening with red flag warnings in effect for zones 413 and 427. Expect the storms to dissipate overnight. The threat for storms exists again on Wednesday with a red flag warning in place again Wednesday afternoon in zone 427 which is targeted for the most activity by the models. Left the other zones out with only isolated coverage expected. Dry conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday with extremely hot conditions expected to be in place the weekend with many low elevation locations reaching triple digits with widespread minimum humidity well below 15 percent.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413-427. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ427.