textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe storms today. - Flash flood watch over Wapiti burn scar in Custer County this afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Most likely looking at a very active day across east Idaho today. We will start the day with some overnight showers drifting through the central mountains and some cloud cover across southern Idaho. Models remain insistent that enough instability and upper level dynamics are in place for clusters of thunderstorms to develop over central Idaho around midday. These storms are expected to rapidly intensify and move east, possibly congealing into a broken line across east Idaho before moving into Wyoming. But that may not be all of the storms as the 3km NAM and HRRR both show another round of storms emerging from the Lemhi area and into the upper Snake Plain late afternoon and early evening. Also, the NAM is showing storms potentially moving into the Bear Lake region around that time as well. There still remains a threat for severe thunderstorms across the region with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat. The most likely time for severe weather is from 12pm to 8pm. Ensembles are indicating that up to 0.50 inches of rain is possible in these storms. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley. If one of these heavier storms would move through that area, then there is a high chance of debris flows there. Most of the convection should diminish by late evening.

On Thursday, looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as another shortwave passes through. However, the strength of this system combined with instability over the area and upper level dynamics aren't nearly as supportive of strong storms as we will see today.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Southwest flow is expected across the region through the weekend. This will allow well above average temperatures to continue. Models show a weak cold front arriving Monday which may allow temperatures to return more normal for midweek. The extended forecast looks dry as systems in the extended look too weak or not enough moisture around to work with.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 427 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

There is a trough moving through today that will bring widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. We do have light showers over our area currently, mainly over the Central mountains and in the vicinity of KSUN and KBYI. The main show will begin closer to 16Z today as stronger storms get going across much of Eastern Idaho. Have kept PROB30 at all sites for the late morning through afternoon. There is an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms for all TAF sites looking at the HREF 24 hr thunderstorm chance. Moderate to large hail and strong outflow wind gusts will be the biggest impacts of these thunderstorms. Though most outflow gusts will be in the 25 to 30 kt range, some thunderstorms could produce outflows greater than 50 kts. Most hail will be small with thunderstorms but again some thunderstorms could be capable of producing moderate to large hail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A strong system/trough will move through the area today bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms late this morning into the early evening. Moderate to strong outflows and moderate to large hail are expected with thunderstorms. Also, expect moderate to heavy brief rainfall with thunderstorms. Isolated flooding is possible, especially for the Wapiti burn scar north of Stanley. Temperatures will drop 4 to 8 degrees (70s to 80s) today and Thursday compared to yesterday but temperatures will still be above normal. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday as well. The area begins to dry out again towards the end of the week and into the weekend with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for IDZ072.