textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning Today: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening for Fire Weather Zone 422 due to the threat of scattered thunderstorms. Lightning strikes and erratic gusts of 30 to 50 mph will bring critical fire weather concerns.

- Wind Advisory Active: An intense pressure gradient ahead of an approaching low will cause widespread winds of 25 to 35 mph today, with gusts up to 50 mph prompting a Wind Advisory for the Snake Plain, Arco Desert, and Lemhi Highlands.

- Potent Weekend Storm & Cooldown: An unseasonably strong low- pressure system moves overhead on Saturday, forcing temperatures down by 15 to 20 degrees and bringing widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms through Sunday.

- Frost and Freeze Potential: Slashing weekend temperatures will cap valley highs in the 50s and 60s, while overnight lows plummeting into the 20s and 30s will introduce pockets of frost or freeze conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Early morning satellite imagery reveals increasing cloud cover across eastern Idaho as a well-advertised weekend low-pressure system begins to assert its influence. While current radar returns remain largely dry, precipitation is on track to push into the central mountains around sunrise before overspreading the remainder of eastern Idaho later this evening and into overnight Saturday morning. Ahead of the precipitation, a rapidly tightening pressure gradient will cause synoptic winds to accelerate dramatically today. Widespread wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph are expected, with gusts up to 50 mph prompting a Wind Advisory for the Snake Plain, Arco Desert, and Lemhi Highlands. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wind today, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Zone 422 where scattered storm coverage is anticipated. While other areas may see similar convective coverage, headlines are not warranted there due to less critical fuel states.

The low-pressure system will drop directly across the state Saturday through Monday, moving at a slightly slower pace than previous model cycles indicated before finally tracking north into Montana on Monday. This specific track will focus the heaviest precipitation across the central mountains and eastern highlands. Through Sunday evening, precipitation totals will range from a few hundredths up to 0.20" across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and South Hills/Albion Mountains. Meanwhile, the southeast highlands can expect 0.20" to 0.60", with the rest of central and eastern Idaho picking up a more substantial 0.40" to 1.0".

The core of the low passing over the central mountains will drive snow levels down to 800010000 feet, with localized drops down to 65007500 feet under intense precipitation bands. This will result in light, wet snow accumulations generally above 8500 feet and brief periods of snow down to 6500 feet, creating unseasonably chilly and hazardous conditions for backcountry travelers. Weekend daytime temperatures will be noticeably cold, holding in the 50s and 60s for valley locations, while the highest elevations struggle in the 30s to near 50. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s and 30swith warmer spots staying near 40triggering localized frost and freeze concerns. Light precipitation will linger into Monday before the system exits the state. A drying trend takes over through mid-week, allowing temperatures to recover to near normal by Wednesday and climb well above seasonal averages late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Light winds current will become breezy by Friday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kts at BYI, PIH, and IDA and closer to 20 kts at SUN and DIJ. Showers will continue overnight Friday into Saturday as a line with embedded storms moves through Idaho from west to east. Increasing cloud cover, lowering CIGs and precip chances can be expected through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A complex transition is underway today as an influx of moist, unstable air triggers isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an advancing cold front. Early this morning, initial patches of light rain and virga are developing across the central mountains and tracking east along the Montana border toward Island Park. Showers and thunderstorms will steadily spread eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. While the central mountains hold the exclusive potential for wetting rains today, strong synoptic winds and lightning strikes will maintain elevated fire concerns across dry fuel beds elsewhere. Widespread winds will ramp up ahead of the front, yielding gusts of 30 to 50 mph, with the strongest speeds concentrated across Zones 410, 411, 425, and 476. Humidity values will make a significant upward jump today, remaining well above critical 15% thresholds.

Once the cold front passes, a dramatic shift takes hold for the weekend, eliminating any need for fire headlines as relative humidity values surge. The period of greatest precipitation runs through Sunday evening, introducing unseasonably cold air and light, wet snow above 8500 feet to the central mountains. Conditions dry out by the middle of next week as humidity drops and temperatures warm. However, long-range guidance hints at weaker, moisture-limited systems skirting the region late next week, which could introduce another round of virga, light sprinkles, and isolated thunderstorms.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054-067. Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for IDZ422.