textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash Flood Watch for Local Burn Scars: A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Wapiti, Ohio, and Big Rock burn scars from late Thursday through Friday, where incoming precipitation could trigger debris flows and rapid runoff.

- Widespread showers and storms arrive late this afternoon and evening.

- Much colder Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

We continue to monitor our next weather maker. Its a low pressure system off the coast of southern California. It will move inland today, then overhead on Friday, exiting the region on Saturday. There's been some noteworthy changes to the qpf forecast. Numbers have gone down across east Idaho and the Magic Valley while staying about the same for the central mountains. The concern seems to be the amount of drier air over the region. As a result, we are seeing more convective elements than with the last system which was more of a stratiform event. Expect clusters of showers and thunderstorms to move through central and east Idaho late Thursday afternoon, through Thursday night and into Friday morning. Most of the deformation zone a.k.a. wrap around precipitation will stay across the central mountains into the Island Park region on Friday. The NBM mean qpf is now sitting just under an inch for east Idaho and the Magic Valley but still 1.00 to 1.50 inches across the central mountains into the Island Park region. The 50th percentile is just a tad under the mean. The 10th percentile is around 0.50 inches for east Idaho, 0.25 to 0.50 inches for the Magic Valley and 0.50 to 1.00 inches for the central mountains into the Island Park region. The 90th percentile is now 1.00 to 1.50 inches for east Idaho and the Magic Valley, and 1.50 to 2.00 inches for the central mountains. The official WPC forecast is on the dry end, now sitting between the 10th and 25th percentile. So, still a large range of values in the probabilities which indicates that there is still a lot of spread in the model solutions. However, the trend seems to be moving drier. The snowfall forecast still hasn't changed much with most of the snow falling above 7000 feet and mainly across the central mountains. Very little road impacts expected. Very noticeable drop in temps expected from Thursday to Friday, roughly 20 degrees.

Dry weather is likely over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be a touch below average over the weekend and return to seasonable levels for next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 102 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Isolated showers are possible this morning. Coverage for showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon and evening. Expect vfr conditions throughout the day with light winds outside of thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Some gusts to 35 mph are possible near storms. Otherwise winds should remain light. The wetting rains should arrive tonight and continue into Friday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.