textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Severe Risk For Some Today: Parts of eastern Idaho remain under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today, while the Slight Risk zone has shifted south into Northern Utah. Strong shear will remain capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail within stronger cells.

- Showers and Storms Persist Into Early Sunday: High-resolution model guidance keeps shower and thunderstorm activity around throughout today and through the first half of Sunday before rapid clearing takes hold Sunday afternoon.

- Slight Warming Trend to Start Next Week: Daytime high temperatures next week have been adjusted slightly upward compared to previous forecasts, returning lower-elevation values closer to seasonal averages in the upper 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Satellite shows a mix of clearing and cloud cover across our CWA so far today. The cold front is likely hung up in the Central Mountains at the moment, evidenced in part by the dew points there in the low to mid 40s versus the dew points in the mid to upper 50s in the eastern half of the area. We will see how this clearing along the Snake River Plain allows for convection to develop this afternoon. The "Slight Risk" from SPC has been pushed a bit farther south out of Idaho and into Utah, but we remain under a "Marginal Risk" from Blackfoot south into Utah. Wind is still the main threat with the potential for gusts of 50-60+ mph, but hail with some storms could also be pushing quarter size or larger. CAMs show another round of showers and embedded storms early Sunday morning through parts of the Snake River Plain and Eastern Highlands as the cold front finally makes it through the area.

Temperatures are a few degrees cooler today, in the mid to upper 70s in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. Highs are expected to remain in the 60s and 70s area wide on Sunday behind the cold front. Winds this afternoon and Sunday afternoon are going to be a bit more gusty, ranging from 25 to 35 mph. This pushes us close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria early Sunday morning, but it appears sustained winds will diminish a bit by mid morning around the American Falls Reservoir, so will hold off on issuing.

We will keep around some isolated shower/thunderstorm chances on Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough passes through the area. Much of next week remains under the influence of general troughing over the West before another deep low moves into the PNW on Friday. For the most part, afternoon highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s for most of the week ahead with overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Will continue to see showers and thunderstorms across the region through this evening with precip gradually tapering off from west to east as we move into the early morning hours on Sunday. Maintained PROB30 groups for later this afternoon to account for TSTM and gusty wind potential. Though, have started them later in the afternoon than the previous TAF based on current high- resolution models. CIGs should remain at VFR levels through the period despite the storms around the area. With any heavy showers on station, brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact Eastern Idaho this evening and overnight through Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Our "Slight" risk for severe weather has been pushed farther south, but a "Marginal" risk remains in place for portions of Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, 425, and 427. The main threats with storms today are wind gusts of 50-60+ mph and quarter size hail. Storms are expected to produce plenty of rainfall, too, hence the lack of a Red Flag Warning for scattered thunderstorms today. Storms will be more isolated in the Central Mountains and are not expected to be quite as robust given the cooler temperatures and lower dew points. Rainfall totals will be highest in our eastern mountains, ranging from about a quarter to a half inch with closer to a tenth of an inch under storms in the lower elevations. The cold front itself moves through very early Sunday morning and behind it, drier air brings afternoon min RHs down to 10 to 20 percent for Sunday afternoon in the Central Mountains and out across the desert. As such, expect a few hours of near critical to critical fire weather conditions due to low RHs and gusty winds of 25-35 mph in parts of FWZ 410, 422, and 425. Coverage is not quite enough to warrant and RFW issuance. Min RHs remain low in this area again on Monday, but winds will not be quite as gusty. A weak shortwave trough passing through Monday PM into Tuesday will keep around some isolated shower/storm chances to start the new week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.