textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will keep clear skies with a warming trend through Thursday.

- A trough approaching from the northwest will increase wind on Thursday afternoon, allowing humidity and wind to combine to potentially bring critical fire weather conditions. Breezy to windy conditions expected Friday in the Snake River Plain. - Next chance of precipitation and risk of thunderstorms could be as early as Friday with more widespread precipitation Sunday as upper level low moves overhead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

No impacts related to the weather through Wednesday as clear skies continue. After the very cool conditions Tuesday expect temperatures back near seasonal normal on Wednesday and then well above normal Thursday as a much stronger zonal westerly flow aloft moves into Idaho. Many low elevation high temperatures back to around 80 degrees on Wednesday then mid to even upper 80s by Thursday. Mountains likely well into the 70s most locations on Thursday as well. Winds in the 10 to 20 mph range Thursday then in the 15 to 30 mph range on Friday mainly in the Snake River Plain and Arco Desert. Models indicating a chance of an upper level low pressure and strong cold front moving through next Sunday increasing a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains but mainly another significant cool down Sunday into next Monday before warming commences again. Upcoming seasonal change being indicated as each cold front brings even cooler conditions than the previous one. Overall not expecting significant rainfall through the next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

No aviation impacts expected through Wednesday morning. Clear skies through the period with afternoon wind increases to the 10 knot range at all sites with some gusts up to 20 mph at PIH and IDA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Conditions will trend warmer and drier through Thursday under mostly clear skies. Flow aloft will remain westerly through late week with an area of high pressure to our south and troughing to our north. Daytime highs will return to the 70s and 80s by mid-week, after which temperatures cool again with widespread highs in the 60s by late weekend. Winds will increase again Thursday through Saturday as a PacNW trough deepens and the pressure gradient tightens. During the weekend timeframe, models continue to show the center of low pressure tracking over the northern extent of our CWA, bringing the best precipitation chances to our northern mountains. Prior to this increase in moisture, we will observe areas of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across southeast Idaho on Thursday, where areas of relative humidity ranging 10 to 15 will overlap with wind gusts over 25 to 30 mph. The only three zones in eastern Idaho distinguished as having "critical" fuels are Fire Weather Zones 422, 425, and 427. Of those three, approximately only the northeastern third of FWZ 425 and the extreme southeast corner of 422 are forecast to reach critical wind speeds in combination with critical RH values between around 3 PM and 8 PM Thursday. Considering critical thresholds are currently not expected to be reached on a widespread level across these three Zones, we have opted to hold off on any Fire Weather Watch coordination for south-central Idaho.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.