textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning Today: A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Fire Weather Zone 413 from 9 AM this morning until midnight tonight. Scattered high-based dry thunderstorms are expected to produce frequent lightning strikes and erratic, localized microburst outflows of 35 to 55 mph.

- Widespread Friday Wind Event: Strong non-convective gradient winds of 20 to 40 mph will develop Friday ahead of an incoming storm system. While winds will be gusty, surging relative humidity levels should prevent widespread critical fire thresholds.

- Weekend Cooldown: An unseasonably strong low pressure system arrives this weekend, bringing a dramatic transition to well below normal temperatures. Sunday will be the coldest day, featuring mountain snow and valley highs in the 50s and lower 60s roughly 20 degrees below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Isolated nocturnal convection has continued across eastern Idaho early this morning, producing occasional lightning strikes and localized gusty winds around 30 mph. High-resolution convective-allowing models (CAMs) show this early activity diminishing slightly over the next few hours before increasing in coverage again later this morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening. The primary focus area for afternoon development looks to be across the central mountains, along the Montana divide, and into the eastern highlands, though some isolated activity could sneak into the Snake Plain as well. Much like recent days, these will be high-based storms driving virga with very little rain actually reaching the surface. However, the atmosphere is moistening up slightly, so we could see a bit more measurable precipitation than yesterday.

Winds will transition to a more widespread, non-convective gradient event on Friday as a powerful, unseasonably deep low- pressure system approaches the Intermountain West. Widespread gusts of 20 to 40 mph are expected with some wind headlines likely being needed for portions of the area Friday. Precip will move into the western half of the area by early afternoon Friday and across the rest of the region by the time we hit daybreak Saturday AM.

The core of this unseasonably strong upper-level low will swing directly across the region over the weekend, delivering a dramatic transition to well below normal temperatures. Sunday will mark the thermal trough of the event, standing out as the coldest day of the week. Afternoon maximum temperatures will struggle to escape the 50s and lower 60s across low-elevation valleys, representing a remarkable anomaly of roughly 20 degrees below normal for late June and putting several record low max temperatures in jeopardy. The highest mountain peaks and ridges will likely see periods of accumulating snow. Furthermore, the region will pivot from limited moisture to a widespread soaking rain event, with storm-total liquid accumulations projected to exceed 0.50" across some of the higher terrain. Valley locations will likely be limited to a few tenths of an inch at best, but the exact track is still in flux. Lingering showers will persist over northern zones on Monday before a high-pressure ridge ushers in a drying and moderating trend by the middle part of next week and into July.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 535 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions in place this morning across eastern Idaho. This biggest issue today will be showers and thunderstorms, namely of the dry variety, developing later this morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours and have maintained vicinity at all sites. Winds today are not expected to be impactful unless near any thunderstorm outflow boundaries in which erratic gusts of 25-35 kts will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Fire Weather Zone 413 from 9 AM this morning until midnight tonight due to scattered dry thunderstorms and erratic outflow winds. Across the rest of eastern Idaho, a deep mid-level moisture profile passing over an exceptionally dry boundary layer will yield high-based virga, dry lightning, and gusty outflow winds but generally more isolated in nature keeping the dry lightning risk elevated but below warning criteria. Friday introduces a widespread gusty wind event with non-convective gusts of 20 to 40 mph, though rapidly surging relative humidity levels should stave off widespread critical wind/RH thresholds. Scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected Friday across most of the central mountains and zone 411 but with an increase in wetting rainfall potential as well so a Red Flag issuance isn't a sure thing and will likely need to be coordinated later today. A complete seasonal reset occurs this weekend as a powerful low delivers cold temperatures, high humidity, mountain snow, and widespread wetting rains exceeding 0.25" for the mountains, though valley Zones 410 and 425 will remain comparatively dry with totals likely falling between 0.10" and 0.25". We begin to dry out and warm up once again as we get into the middle part of next week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight for IDZ413.