textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and very high elevation snow showers returning tonight through Monday.

- Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

- Next system arrives mid week with unsettled conditions for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a complex low-pressure system centered off the California coast. An associated shortwave is currently pushing northeast through the Great Basin and will stretch into an elongated deformation zone late today and tonight across East Idaho. Light precipitation will begin over the southern tier tonight, gradually spreading northward through Sunday. Have high confidence in light showers across most of the forecast area through Sunday, though liquid totals will remain light for most of the region. Most areas are expected to see less than 0.10" of liquid through Sunday afternoon, but short-range high-resolution ensembles (HREF/CAMS) suggest a 35-45% probability of a few locations in the Southern Highlands, Sawtooths, and Big Hole Mountains reaching 0.10-0.20". With southwesterly flow keeping snow levels well above 7,000 ft, valley impacts will be limited to light rain.

The primary upper low opens and progresses through northern Nevada and Utah as an open trough Sunday night through Monday night, with showers persisting across East Idaho. A gradual cooling trend will allow snow levels to slowly drop through Monday night, but latest model guidance suggests this cooling may be coincident with the precipitation ending. Total snow accumulations for the event are expected to range from 2-4" at higher elevations. Low-end potential exists (roughly 20-35% chance) for peak elevations to reach 4-6" if higher-end precipitation probabilities manifest. Widespread impactful accumulations are not anticipated.

A transitory ridge will bring a brief period of dry conditions on Tuesday before the next Pacific Northwest system arrives on Wednesday. This mid-week feature appears stronger than the incoming wave, with higher moisture content and expected QPF. Snow levels will remain well above valley floors. Following the Wednesday system, the region remains in an unsettled northwesterly flow pattern. A series of shortwaves will likely keep periodic chances for light precipitation in the forecast through the remainder of the week, with temperatures trending back toward seasonal normals.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.