textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread Wetting Rains: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will track across central and eastern Idaho from today through Monday. Appreciable rainfall is expected for the majority of the region.

- Late-June Mountain Snow: An unseasonably cold air mass will drop snow levels down to 6,5007,500 feet during periods of heavier precipitation. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are forecast primarily above 7,500 feet with higher amounts on highest peaks.

- Remaining Breezy Through The Weekend: While model guidance indicates a high probability of convective gusts exceeding 35 to 55 mph today, widespread cloud cover and surging humidity are expected to limit overall storm instability and downburst efficiency but synoptic winds will remain elevated but below any headline levels.

- Delayed Extended Drying: The transition back to a dry pattern has been pushed to the middle of next week as lingering mid- level moisture will maintain a baseline of light rain, virga, and isolated thunderstorms for parts of eastern Idaho as temperatures gradually recover.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 A slow-moving upper-level low-pressure system will dominate the weather across eastern Idaho this weekend, bringing an unseasonably cold and highly active pattern featuring multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms today through Monday. Widespread measurable and wetting rainfall is anticipated across the entirety of the region today, with forecast precipitation totals (QPF) trending slightly upward from the previous package. Wetting rain is now considered very likely for all areas, heavily mitigating short-term fire weather concerns.

Due to the banded and showery nature of the precipitation, totals will still vary across the map. The lowest precipitation amounts remain forecast across the lower elevations of the Magic Valley and Snake Plain, where some localized, drier pockets could still see amounts hover closer to 0.1 inches. However, confidence in a more widespread soaking has grown, with probabilistic guidance now showing over a 60% chance of seeing 0.25 inches or more within parts of these zones. For the Wood River Valley, South Hills, Albion Mountains, and southeast highlands, a general footprint of 0.20 to 0.50 inches is forecast, with high-end potential maxing out near 1.0 inch. The remainder of central and eastern Idaho will see the most substantial soaking, with widespread totals of 0.40 to 1.0 inch, scaling as high as 1.5 to 2.0 inches along the Montana divide and central mountains where the low may stall.

Ambient winds will remain breezy outside of any convective activity, but speeds are expected to stay safely below wind headline thresholds. Convective wind potential remains a highly conditional threat today; while high-resolution models advertise a 50% or higher chance of thunderstorm outflows exceeding 35 to 55 mph, extensive cloud cover should severely limit the solar heating needed for strong instability, and a much more humid boundary layer will hinder dry microburst production.

Lastly, because this system is drawing down an unusually cold air mass for late June, accumulating snow is expected across the higher terrain of the central mountains. While heavier bursts of precipitation may briefly force light snow down to 6,5007,500 feet, meaningful accumulations will be confined to elevations above 7,500 feet. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow is forecast, though high-alpine peaks above 10,000 feetparticularly within the Lost River Range and northward into Lemhi Countycould pick up a few additional inches.

The long-term drying trend has been delayed until late next week. A stagnant extended pattern will keep residual moisture and minor shortwave waves filtering through the region. While temperatures will eventually moderate back into the 70s and 80s by the end of next week, the weather will transition back into the familiar pattern of warm afternoon virga, light rain, and isolated thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

As the cold front continues to make its way across East Idaho tonight through tomorrow we will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms. Timing these out has been tricky as each model run brings a new "best guess" at where storms will pop up at any given hour. If/when we get a storm to track directly over any of the TAF sites, expect drops to MVFR CIGs and VIS. It will be breezy outside of storms with gusts in the afternoon around 20 to 25 kts, but storms will likely bring stronger gusts to at least 35 to 40 kts, if not a bit stronger with the more organized storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A sharp pattern shift brings scattered thunderstorms and widespread wetting rain potential to eastern Idaho today, with wetting rains now looking very likely across all fire zones. Forecast QPF totals have trended upward compared to previous expectations, boosting confidence in widespread fire mitigation. Showers and embedded storms will continue through Sunday before the entire system gradually lifts from south to north later on Monday. While model forecasts aggressively project a 50% to 90% chance of convective wind gusts hitting 35 to 55 mph this weekend, forecaster confidence in widespread severe outflows remains low due to thicker cloud cover and high relative humidity values. Enhanced outflow winds will remain possible through Monday. Widespread fuel moistures will recover rapidly under cold temperatures, high humidity, and soaking rainfall before a slow, isolated virga and thunderstorm pattern returns late next week.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.