textproduct: Pocatello

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty Holiday Weekend Storms: Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are producing erratic outflow gusts between 35 and 50 mph.

- Peak Warmth Tomorrow: Memorial Day will bring the warmest temperatures of the stretch, with lower elevations climbing into the mid-to-upper 80s alongside another round of gusty thunderstorm winds.

- Extended Mid-Week Unsettled Pattern: The warm holiday regime breaks down Tuesday as a closed low parks itself near Lake Tahoe, kicking off a prolonged stretch of daily storm chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures through the end of May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery captures modest cumulus development flanking the northern and southern edges of our forecast area. Regional radars and surface observations have already lit up with scattered showers and thunderstorms, many of which are generating robust, erratic outflow wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph. High-resolution convective models (CAMs) keep this active regime in place through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures are currently responding well to the holiday warmth, sitting comfortably in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower valleys.

Expect a near-repeat performancebut with a bit more heat and convective wind potentialfor Memorial Day. Lower elevations will see temperatures peak tomorrow afternoon in the mid-to- upper 80s. This added heating will drive another round of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. CAMs are particularly aggressive regarding wind potential tomorrow; the latest 12Z HREF guidance highlights a 70% to 90% probability of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph, with the highest risk localized over the central mountains.

The warm and tranquil pattern completely breaks down on Tuesday as a potent closed low pressure system drops into the western U.S. and meanders into the Great Basin. Rather than sweeping quickly through the region, long-range guidance tracks this feature to park itself near Lake Tahoe through the middle and latter half of the week, keeping the regional weather highly volatile. While minor model discrepancies persist regarding the precise orientation and day-to-day wobble of this low, the overarching signal is overwhelmingly unsettled. Consequently, we will see a sustained cooling trend, with afternoon highs dropping back down to seasonal averages in the 60s and 70s. This stagnant synoptic setup ensures that daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will return to close out the month of May, accompanied by breezy intervals depending on exactly how the core of the low tracks.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 558 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers and storms will continue to diminish this evening and winds will weaken, becoming light and variable during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon will work through the region from south to north. HREF probability of thunder is 30 to 40 percent at KPIH and KIDA with 40 to 50 at KBYI, 50 to 60 at KSUN, and 60 to 70 at KDIJ. Therefore, have included PROB30s at all terminals for thunderstorm chances beginning at or after 19z. Outside of showers and storms, winds will gust to around 20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Warmer weather continues through Memorial Day, with some light showers/sprinkles and a few thunderstorms. Best chance for any virga and thunderstorms today will be across Zones 422 and 475 in the central mountains, 427, 411, and 413. There is 30-70% chance for gusts over 35 mph especially south of the Snake River, with higher end gusts reaching 45 mph. On Monday, the better chance of development shifts to the central mountains, although isolated showers and storms are possible elsewhere. The potential for strong gusts increases tomorrow with a corridor of 50-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph across the central mountains south across the Magic Valley (425), with peak gusts easily exceeding 50 mph. There chance elsewhere is still elevated at 30-50%. There has been a shift in the pattern for midweek, as the low ends up potentially parked over the Sierras for a couple of days. The main impact will be to keep temperatures warmer, although not quite as warm as today and Monday. Moisture continues to stream north which will keep a decent shot at wetting rains along with thunderstorms in the forecast. The low appears to finally shift across Idaho Thursday and Friday.

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.