textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will moderate late week through this weekend with a couple weak systems bringing chances of light precipitation, mainly rain, before a cool-down early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will moderate late week through this weekend with a couple weak systems bringing chances of light precipitation, mainly rain, before a cool-down early next week.

Low pressure moving through eastern Canada will push a warm front through the area on Thursday. This will lead to temperatures returning to more seasonable values with highs generally in the upper 40s to low 50s. A stronger low will then lift by to our north on Friday as it moves from the lower Great Lakes towards New England. The increasing southerly flow associated with this system will help continue the warming trend with highs generally getting into the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas. The system will also drag a weakening cold front through the area Friday night with some associated rain/showers. Some showers could arrive in our N/W zones from Berks County northward through the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos as early as late Friday but most of the precip should occur during the evening and overnight period Friday night. All rain is expected as lows Friday night will be generally in the 40s (upper 30s over the southern Poconos). Precipitation amounts should be generally in the tenth to quarter inch range or less.

The warm advection pattern will continue into Saturday as yet another system develops to our west. Expect a partly to mostly sunny day with highs generally in the low to mid 60s with the exception of the higher elevation areas in our N/W zones where highs should be mainly in the 50s. As the SW flow associated with this approaching system increases into Sunday, it will be even warmer with highs generally in the 65 to 70 range. The exception will again be for higher elevations in the southern Poconos and NW NJ as well as right near the coast where highs will generally top out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The cold front with the aformentioned system will move through late Sunday into Sunday night with another round of some rain/showers. Colder Canadian high pressure will then move in in its wake with a return to more seasonable but fair weather for the early to middle part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thursday...VFR with variable cloud cover. Southeast winds around 5 kts early, shifting southerly and increasing to 5-10 kts by 15Z, then shifting more southwesterly after 18Z for inland terminals. ILG/MIV/ACY wind direction will stay more south to southeasterly due to marine influence. High confidence.

Thursday night...VFR. Southerly winds diminishing to around 5 kts or less overnight, locally calm winds north of PHL. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday night through Monday...Sub VFR conditions possible Friday night with some showers moving through. Improvement to VFR should then occur for Saturday through most of Sunday before another period of sub-VFR conditions is then possible again late Sunday into early Monday due to showers. Gradual improvement to VFR then expected through the day Monday.

MARINE

No marine hazards expected through tonight. Southeast winds 5-10 kts shifting southerly during the daytime hours, then more southwesterly late tonight. Seas 2-4 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible late day Friday into Friday night with SW winds increasing to around 20 to 25 knots and seas near 5 feet.

Saturday through Sunday...Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through this period.

Sunday night through Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are probable with seas building to 4-6 feet and a NW wind increasing to 25-30 knots.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.