textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Below normal temperatures continue this weekend into early next week.

2. Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected to continue tonight for portions of Ocean County New Jersey and Sussex County Delaware. Flooding will be confined mainly to back bay areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures continue this weekend into early next week.

As low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend and high pressure builds to our west, northwesterly flow will continue to usher in cold air into the region. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal through the weekend into early next week. Early morning clouds have kept temperatures much warmer than expected, so canceled freeze warning and frost advisory soon. Growing season ends per regional agreements on November 15th, so this will be the last frost/freeze headline of the year. No further will be issued by our office until Spring 2027.

In addition to the colder temperatures, winds will be gusty during the day due to a tight pressure gradient across the area through the weekend with winds gusts of 20-30 mph possible.

With the cold air and northwest flow, there will also be the possibility for some lake effect/lake enhanced snow or rain showers in the Poconos and higher elevations of Sussex County, New Jersey as well.

Temps gradually moderate as we head toward the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected to continue today for portions of Ocean County New Jersey and Sussex County Delaware. Flooding will be confined mainly to back bay areas.

Water levels have been slow to decline, and while the baseline should continue to slowly drop today, the next high tide is the higher of the two. Therefore, decided to keep the coastal flood advisory, mainly for the back bays, thru this afternoon. Thereafter expect flooding to end.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Scattered to broken clouds around 4-5 thousand feet. NW winds gusting 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds WNW 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday thru Tuesday...VFR expected.

MARINE

SCA flag for all waters through tonight as northwest wind gusts 25-30 kts continue while low pressure slowly moves away and high pressure gradually builds in. Fair weather otherwise.

Outlook...

Sunday thru Tuesday...SCA may linger early Sunday, otherwise sub-SCA conditions predominate. Fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ020-026. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for DEZ003-004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.