textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisory for NJ and DE Atlantic coastal waters extended through 2 PM Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

2. A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

High pressure initially centered just offshore will continue to shift eastward this afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. The cold front will pass through the region tonight. There remains a chance (generally 20-40%) for a few showers, primarily across the Poconos, though a few sprinkles can't be ruled out as far south as the Lehigh Valley and adjacent areas of far northern NJ. With that said, this will be a dry frontal passage for most.

In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier conditions will filter into the region. RH values during the day on Saturday will fall to 25-35%, with breezy conditions. Northwest winds will gust generally 20-25 mph. These conditions will lead to fire weather concerns, with any fires that start potentially able to spread rapidly.

Conditions will be slightly less favorable for fire spread on Sunday as it appears RH will increase slightly, but otherwise similar conditions are expected. It will remain dry and somewhat breezy with seasonable temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week.

After a seasonable weekend, a significant warming trend will likely take place across the area early next week. High pressure will initially build back in across the region in the wake of the cold front this weekend, before shifting east and allowing for a prolonged period of return flow. By mid-week, high temperatures could surge well into the 80s across much of the area, with overnight lows only falling into the 60s. 90 is not out of the question in the typical hot spots.

A series of weak disturbances will result in a slight chance to low-end chance (15-30%) for showers or even an isolated thunderstorm each day, primarily in the evening hours and primarily for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor. The bulk of the period will be high and dry however, not good news for the drought.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR. South winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. South winds 5-10 kt will shift to northwesterly 07- 10Z with a cold frontal passage. There remains a slight chance (around 20%) for a light shower or two near KRDG and KABE. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt, with gusts near 20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Generally VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory that is in effect for all NJ and DE Atlantic coastal waters has been extended through 2 PM Saturday.

South winds 10-15 kt this afternoon will become more southwesterly tonight, and northwesterly on Saturday. Seas 4-6 feet expected.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Sub-SCA with gusts under 25 kts and seas under 5 feet.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA possible with wind gusts up to 25 kts and seas up to 7 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA with gusts under 25 kts and seas under 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.