textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAF issuance.

A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland County in New Jersey and for Kent and Sussex County in Delaware. Minor tidal flooding is expected with tomorrow afternoon's high tide.

Updated rip current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of the weekend. A few showers possible tonight however.

2. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon's high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM Sunday.

3. A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of the weekend. A few showers possible tonight however.

A drier and cooler airmass has arrived across the northern Middle Atlantic region as high pressure to the northwest begins influencing our weather to a greater degree. Low pressure aloft across the the Northern Atlantic continues to bring Northwest flow aloft over our area. A couple embedded short waves in this flow will pass across New England and our coastal waters later today and tonight. The activity will drift further south across Delmarva Sunday morning. We could see some scattered showers as a result. Pops are generally in the 20% to 35% range, so no significant impacts are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon's high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM Sunday.

Flow will turn more onshore through Monday. This will result in water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, leading to minor tidal flooding across portions of our area on Sunday afternoon. The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Atlantic City on south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within Delaware Bay. With increasing confidence in minor tidal flooding occurring, a new Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for tomorrow afternoon for Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland County in NJ and Kent and Sussex County in Delaware.

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow turns more offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

By Tuesday, high pressure will begin to shift offshore welcoming the return of southerly flow, resulting in a period of above-normal temperatures and an increase in humidity levels through mid-week. High pressure looks like it will largely remain in control through Wednesday, before giving way to a cold front that will approach the area on Thursday. This front will be the next opportunity for any showers or thunderstorms around the area. However, moisture with the front could end up being limited so at this point POPs are only around 20-30% or less.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. North to northeast winds generally 5 kts or less. High confidence.

Sunday...Primarily VFR. SCT clouds around 4 kft AGL could become BKN at times. Northeast winds 5-10 kts, trending towards southeast beginning late afternoon. A few light showers can't be ruled out, primarily at MIV and ACY. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday. Fair then scattered showers tonight and Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected. Northeast winds may briefly get gusty later on Sunday, but should remain below SCA criteria. Seas will generally range around 2-4 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions probable due to wind gusts around 25-30 kt with seas around 4-6 feet. Conditions will peak late Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually diminishing on Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, while winds will be onshore with a northeast wind, breaking waves should remain low (2 feet or less) and winds 10 to 15 MPH or lower. An 8 second wave period will also limit the rip current risk. As a result, elected for a LOW Risk at all beaches.

For Labor Day, winds will generally be out of the east, but rather light - around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves remain around 2 feet or lower with an 8 second period. This will result in another LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ021>025. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...None.