textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Small Craft Advisory was issued for this afternoon for the upper Delaware Bay.

Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast.

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A relatively benign stretch of weather is expected for the next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A relatively benign stretch of weather is expected for the next week.

A cold front is working its way through our region this morning with some showers across the boundary in South Jersey and southern Delaware. That should move out and offshore by daybreak as the cold front clears the region.

High pressure moves in behind the front, kicking off a stretch of tranquil weather. A brief period of breezy winds out of the northwest is anticipated today, with gusts this afternoon around 20-30 MPH. Otherwise, it should be a pleasant day with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

The surface high remains in control through the end of the week. A cold front passes on Friday Night, but should be a dry frontal passage with another strong area of high pressure moving in for the weekend. The only noticeable impact with that frontal passage will be some breezy winds on Saturday around 25-35 MPH.

An Omega Block sets up over the central US, with our area being positioned on the eastern side of the block. Several disturbances try to rotate in, but should stay more off to the northeast with the only sensible impact being temperatures a few degrees below normal from Saturday onward.

That changes a bit as a shortwave trying to cutoff gets closer to our area for next week. This could result in an unsettled pattern but confidence is low on where exact features set up. However, the threat for hazardous and impactful weather is low.

Overall, it will be quite pleasant as we barrel towards meteorological summer with no hazardous weather with any significant impacts expected.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today..VFR. Northwest winds increase around 14z-15z, with sustained winds of around 15 kt and gusts around 25 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. Northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. West/northwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Saturday...VFR. A cold front coming through will result in gusty northwest winds once it passes on Friday Night. Wind gusts around 20-30 kt expected.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Monday...Primarily VFR. Some showers possible (20-30% chance).

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the upper Delaware Bay zone from 1 PM to 6 PM as gusts get near 25 kt at times. Wind gusts will remain around 20 kt for lower Delaware Bay and the ocean zones out of the northwest. Seas of 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Friday...No marine headlines expected.

Friday Night through Saturday...SCA conditions possible (50% chance) as wind gusts in the wake of a cold front could get near or over 25 kt. Seas could also get near 5 feet.

Saturday Night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For today and Friday, a northwest to north wind 10-15 mph Thursday will become west to southwest on Friday. A medium period 7 to 8 second swell and breaking waves in the surf zone of around 2 feet are forecast. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the New Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

Ocean water temperatures are in the 50s to low 60s. These chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.