textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Spotty minor tidal flooding expected with this morning's high tide.

2. Areas of fog and low clouds anticipated this morning. Otherwise, no other significant weather impacts with generally tranquil conditions through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty minor tidal flooding expected with this morning's high tide.

Elevated astronomical tides from the recent full moon and northeast onshore flow resulted in some spotty minor tidal flooding across portions of southern Atlantic coastal New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay early Wednesday morning. For those same areas, another round of spotty minor tidal flooding is forecast with this morning's high tide cycle. However, tide levels should be slightly lower than this morning, and no advisories are warranted at this time.

No tidal flooding is expected on the tidal Delaware River, northern New Jersey coast, or Chesapeake Bay communities.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Areas of fog and low clouds anticipated this morning. Otherwise, no other significant weather impacts with generally tranquil conditions through early next week.

Latest trends and guidance support increased confidence in areas of fog and/or low stratus developing through daybreak this morning. Skies have cleared and winds have decoupled. Some fog and low stratus have already developed, and this is anticipated to continue increasing in coverage through dawn. Cannot totally rule out some locally dense fog, though current guidance suggests widespread dense fog is unlikely. Will continue to monitor.

High pressure will shift offshore through today, then a dry cold front is expected to push through the region and offshore Friday morning. High pressure will then return through early next week with continued mild and dry conditions expected.

A couple of warmer days to close out the week ahead, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s in most areas. Following any morning fog and low clouds, skies will turn partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon with a light southwest breeze. Mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Friday will turn breezy in the wake of the morning cold frontal passage. Northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph can be expected.

Conditions will turn cooler again for the weekend. Lows Friday night through Sunday night will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s, but frost currently appears unlikely where the growing season continues. Highs will be coolest on Halloween, in the upper 50s to mid 60s, under partly cloudy skies. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday, but milder with highs in the mid 60s for most.

The system which had potential to affect the region early next week now appears to weaken and miss our region for the most part. This will keep our region dry, but still increase cloud cover. We cannot totally rule out a few showers midweek, but the next period to keep an eye on for widespread rainfall looks to be toward the end of next week, when guidance suggests a more prolific system may impact the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 14Z...Areas of fog and/or low stratus. Visibility and ceilings may drop to LIFR at times, especially where no stratus is present. Elsewhere, guidance suggests MVFR is most probable, but cannot rule out some IFR restrictions for the other terminals. Winds mostly calm. Low confidence on details regarding timing and severity of restrictions.

Today...VFR following fog and/or low stratus early, which will dissipate by 14Z. Stratus across the Lehigh Valley could linger through most of the morning though, dissipating prior to 18Z. Southwest winds increasing to 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 kts shifting toward the west after 09Z. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR with gusty northwest winds.

Saturday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Tranquil conditions expected on the waters with no hazards through tonight. Some areas of fog possible nearshore and across Delaware Bay this morning with visibility 1-3 NM. South to southwest winds 5-10 kts and seas 1-3 feet.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Northwest winds increasing to 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front, with gusts up to 25 kts (30 kts offshore). At this time, the greatest probability of 25 kt gusts is across the northern New Jersey coast, thus a Small Craft Advisory was issued from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for this area. This may need to be expanded farther south in a future update, but the stronger gusts may stay mostly confined to the offshore waters.

Saturday through Monday...No marine hazards expected. Fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450-451.