textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall has ended for today, and temperatures should climb into the 40s through the day.

Potential for wintry weather with the low pressure system Thursday and Thursday night continues to diminish.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low pressure slides south of the region, bringing a chance for rain and snow Thursday through Thursday night.

2. Another low pressure may move into the region early next week, producing another chance of wintry weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure slides south of the region, bringing a chance for rain and snow Thursday through Thursday night.

A wave of low pressure will pass west-to-east south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will provide another opportunity for some wintry weather as we'll have marginally cold air in place behind Wednesday morning's system. The latest trends, however, continues to nudge the system further south, lessening the risk of a significant intersection of colder air and precipitation. Thus, for the moment we have mainly slight chance to chance POPs for snow across our northern tier Thursday into Thursday night, with chance POPs of rain/snow mix across a central slice of the CWA including Philadelphia. Further south, we do have some likely POPs, but at this point temps look warm enough for plain rain across the Delmarva and far southern NJ. We'll continue to monitor, but at this time this mainly looks like a sub advisory event should it occur, and its possible little or no wintry precip occurs. Current snowfall forecast has only a trace to a few tenths of an inch of snowfall with limited coverage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another low pressure may move into the region early next week, producing another chance of wintry weather.

Milder weather will prevail over the weekend in the wake of the Thursday night system, with highs in the 40s for much of the region Friday-Sunday and possibly topping 50 in some areas Saturday. This should help melt some of the existing snow pack.

However, a front will send more cold air into the region later Sunday, and hot on its heals some guidance depicts a wave of low pressure riding eastward into the region for Monday. With fresh cold air in place, more wintry weather is certainly possible, though its notable that not all guidance is showing a significant system, some guidance depicting the system much weaker and drier. Thus, while its definitely on our radar, there's not much more to say about it just yet. This could be a bit more substantial than what we're expecting tonight/Wednesday and Thursday/Thursday night, but doesn't currently appear to have potential for a *major* event. More of a run-of-the- mill winter system, if it pans out.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...All terminals have returned to VFR conditions and should remains that way through the rest of the day. Southwesterly winds increase to around 10-15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots possible at KMIV and KACY. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming west-northwest around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Sub-VFR possible due to rain and snow potential.

Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR possible in rain and snow potential early in the morning then VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters. The SCA on the ocean goes through 6 PM this evening as seas of 4 to 7 feet are expected with gusts of 25-30 kt out of the southwest. For the Delaware Bay, the SCA goes through 1 PM this afternoon as wind gusts will hover around 25 kt, also out of the southwest.

Seas may continue to linger around 5 feet this evening for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters, potentially resulting in an extension of the current SCA for those areas.

Regrading river ice, the Delaware Bay is ice free with 10-30% coverage of ice from the Commodore Barry Bridge up to Philadelphia. With warmer temperatures coming this week, the Delaware River up to Philadelphia should be ice-free relatively soon.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Mostly sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions in snow and rain.

Friday through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions.

CLIMATE

Storm total snowfall from the Sunday-Monday storm ranked 16th biggest on record in Philadelphia, 10th biggest in Trenton and 7th biggest in Atlantic City if we include the downtown station data, 6th if we exclude it (typically we exclude downtown because the airport's climate can be notably different 10 miles inland).

Since we are now outside our main big snowstorm window (mid-Jan to mid-Feb), it turns out this was the biggest storm for so late in the year since 1958 in Trenton, 1915 in Philadelphia, and *EVER RECORDED* in Atlantic City, even when we include the downtown station data. For Philadelphia and Trenton, it was the biggest snowstorm since 2016, while in Atlantic City it was the biggest since 2010. For Philadelphia and Trenton, it was the first time a foot or more of snow fell after mid-February since the March 1993 storm.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.