textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cooler today with lingering showers ending from north to south through this morning. Some additional scattered showers possible in our northern zones tonight.

2. A warming trend is expected this weekend with a few chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler today with lingering showers ending from north to south through this morning. Some additional scattered showers possible in our northern zones tonight.

The cold front has moved through the area but there are still some lingering showers over portions of Delmarva and southern NJ this morning. These will taper off from north to south this morning and will be cleared of the area by early this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy skies early this morning will give way to a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures generally in the 60s.

For tonight, a shortwave looks to pivot around the persistent upper level trough dominating the east and this could produce some showers for our northern zones (mainly near and north of the I-78 corridor) by late evening into the overnight. It won't be much though and POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend is expected this weekend with a few chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

Temperatures look to remain seasonable through Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s for most.

An unsettled pattern looks to take shape across the region beginning on Saturday, with a shortwave passing through the region during the afternoon hours. An attendant area of low pressure looks to pass to the north of the area, with a trailing cold front moving through the region. This will likely lead to scattered or even widespread shower development late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Models do allow for some modest destabilization to take place, and forecast soundings across the area indicate around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of the front. In addition, wind fields aloft will be fairly strong. Therefore, while widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, a few stronger storms cannot be entirely ruled out and this will bear watching as Saturday approaches.

After the passage of the shortwave on Saturday, height rises aloft and a brief period of high pressure at the surface will allow for dry conditions most of the day Sunday as well as for substantial warming to take place with return flow ahead of the next system approaching from the west. High temperatures on Sunday look to be in the upper 70s for most, though it is not out of the question that a few locations could reach 80.

Another wave of low pressure and an accompanying cold front look to move through the region Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing with it another chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, in addition to cooler temperatures to start the next work week.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR. SCT/BKN clouds expected, with periods of clear sky around mid-day. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with W/NW winds generally around 5 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions likely at times in showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Saturday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday...Primarily VFR, brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible in isolated showers.

Sunday night through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely at times in showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

MARINE

Winds may continue to occasionally gust 20-25 knots early this morning but otherwise expect sub SCA conditions for today through tonight.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds under 25 kt and seas under 5 feet.

Saturday...SCA conditions likely with south winds 15-20 kt and gusts around 25 kt. Seas 3-6 feet. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible.

Saturday night through Sunday night...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds under 25 kt and seas under 5 feet. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Sunday night.

Monday...SCA conditions possible with north winds 15-20 kt and gusts near 25 kt. Seas 3-6 feet. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible, especially early.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.