textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted wording of key messages.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Drying out with temperatures returning to seasonable by Friday.

2. Above normal temperatures take over beginning this weekend, with temperatures potentially climbing into the 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drying out with temperatures returning to seasonable by Friday.

The rain has ended but considerable cloudiness and cool temperatures persist this afternoon as the area remains under the influence of a large upper level low centered near the eastern Great Lakes. NW winds are also a little breezy in the wake of a cold frontal passage but will diminish this evening.

Expect at least some partial clearing tonight with tranquil conditions and lows mainly in the 40s to around 50.

For Friday, the upper level low mentioned above will be starting to pull away with high pressure beginning to take control. The result will be a mix of sun and clouds with highs getting back up into the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures take over beginning this weekend, with temperatures potentially climbing into the 90s next week.

An upper level ridge builds into the Eastern US this weekend and into next week, bringing a period of above normal and summer-like temperatures. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic anchors off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. This will result in a warm southerly flow for several days and gradually warming temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday or Wednesday.

Saturday will feature highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s with highs Sunday getting into the mid to upper 80s inland. Near the coast it will generally be a good 5-10 degrees cooler.

Temperatures continue to climb for Monday with mid to upper 80s for many areas and even some low 90s over portions of eastern PA, inland southern NJ, and Delmarva. Tuesday and potentially Wednesday could see some areas inland getting into the mid 90s but confidence on specific details becomes a bit lower by this time. The heat looks to break by Thursday. In terms of overall heat impacts, the current forecast has the urban corridor flirting with heat advisory criteria by next Tuesday into Wednesday but that said, this particular setup doesn't look exceptionally favorable for both very high heat and humidity. Through Tuesday, mixing should keep dew points from getting too high and then by the time these numbers creep up by Wednesday, clouds and showers/storms may help knock temperatures down some.

Overall this stretch looks mostly dry through Tuesday but can't rule out some diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms though, mainly on Sunday. Don't have more than 15-25% PoPs in though as forcing looks weak but we will have a better idea once we get into range of the CAMs.

As mentioned earlier, by around late next Wednesday a cold front will approach and likely bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures. Convective activity will likely accompany that front in some form or fashion, but it's too early to speculate on specific impacts or hazards. The front could linger nearby into Thursday bringing additional showers.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight... VFR expected. BKN clouds early then SCT clouds overnight. West to Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Medium/high confid.

Friday....VFR with NW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...VFR predominating with no significant weather expected. 10-20% chance of a shower or storm on Sunday.

MARINE

Conditions are expected to generally be below Small Craft Advisory levels through Friday however NW winds will be around 10 to 15 with some gusts to around 20 knots by later this afternoon into tonight. These winds should then diminish some Friday. Generally expect seas around 3 feet today increasing to around 4 to near 5 feet Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is likely (60 % chance) late Saturday into Saturday night as southwest winds increase to around 15 to 20 gusting 20 to 25 knots.

Monday through Wednesday...Sub Small Craft Advisory level conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.