textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Special Weather Statement was issued for the Eastern Shore of Maryland as well as Kent and Sussex County, DE as some patchy fog, some of which could be dense, will continue to impact the morning commute.

A Small Craft Advisory was issued for all ocean zones for this afternoon and tonight.

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Patchy fog expected this morning, mainly over far South Jersey and Delmarva.

2. Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

3. A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog expected this morning, mainly over far South Jersey and Delmarva.

A deck of stratus has developed over most of the area. Increased cloud cover kept temperatures warmer, limiting the frost threat through the morning. However, low dewpoint depressions has resulted in some patchy fog developing, which could impact the morning commute. Seeing some visibility below 1 mile over central and southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore, with some locally dense fog of 1/4 mile being observed as well. Went ahead and issued a Special Weather Statement for central and southern Delaware as well as the Eastern Shore. Don't think dense fog is widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, but there could be some slow downs due to poor visibility in those areas.

Any fog should mix out and break by 9 AM or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

A cold front will move through the region tonight. A few light showers may accompany the frontal passage, mainly up in the Poconos, though as of right now, the potential for a wetting rainfall remains low (15% chance or less).

Widespread RHs around 25-35% are expected to follow on Saturday with northwest wind gusts potentially increasing to around 25-35 mph. Fuel moistures will likely continue to decrease across the region as well with the continued dry conditions. Saturday continues to bear watching for fire weather concerns, as a result. Sunday may bear watching as well, with dry conditions continuing through the end of the weekend, though wind gusts will likely be lower, around 15-25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week.

After a seasonable weekend, a significant warming trend will likely take place across the area early next week. High pressure will initially build back in across the region in the wake of the cold front this weekend, before shifting east and allowing for a prolonged period of return flow. By mid-week, high temperatures could surge well into the 80s across much of the area, with overnight lows only falling into the 60s. 90 is not out of the question in the typical hot spots.

A series of weak disturbances could bring a slight chance (15-25%) for showers Monday and Tuesday, primarily for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry until Wednesday into Thursday, when a cold front may move through the area from the northwest.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...A deck of stratus has developed over all terminals bringing IFR CIGs, with some patchy fog and reduced VSBYs around KACY. IFR CIGs should break between 13z-14z, and expecting VFR thereafter. Winds out of the south/southwest increasing to around 10 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt anticipated for the afternoon. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR. A cold front will move through, resulting in a wind shift late tonight. It will mainly be a dry frontal passage but cannot rule out some showers at KABE and KRDG (20-30% chance). Winds start out around 5-10 kt out of the southwest, becoming northwesterly as the front passes between 06z-11z from west to east. Gusts in the 20-25 kt range expected around daybreak out of the northwest. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Northwesterly wind gusts around 20 to 25 kt expected. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Tranquil weather expected on the waters this morning with sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas build a bit this afternoon and tonight, getting near 5 to 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for this afternoon, continuing through tonight. Winds generally out of the south/southwest around 10-20 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday...SCA conditions possible with seas lingering near 5 feet.

Saturday night through Sunday...No marine hazards anticipated. Winds under 25 kt. Seas under 5 feet.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions possible. Southerly winds gusting near 25 kt. Seas increase to 4-6 feet.

Tuesday...No marine hazards anticipated. Winds under 25 kt. Seas under 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ453>455.