textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Rip Current Statement was extended until 8 PM Monday as we expect the HIGH risk of rip currents to continue through this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A HIGH risk of rip currents will create dangerous conditions at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Monday.

2. Unsettled weather continues through Memorial Day as a sequence of fronts and areas of low pressure move through the area. Drier and more seasonable weather returns by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH risk of rip currents will create dangerous conditions at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Monday.

The rip current statement was extended until 8 PM Monday as we expect a HIGH risk of rip currents to persist through this time.

For Monday, winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 4 feet. There will be multiple swell groups including an easterly swell with a 9 second period which will lead to the continuing HIGH risk for dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues through Memorial Day as a sequence of fronts and areas of low pressure move through the area.

A weak disturbance near the New Jersey coast will continue to exit the region through this afternoon. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will track northeast into western New York tonight. As it does so, it will cause the stationary boundary which is currently draped over the East Coast northward as a warm front later tonight. However, it is worth noting that the CAD wedge is quite strong and is still located as far south as northern Georgia and South Carolina at this hour. It will take a quite a substantial surge north to reach and pass through our area overnight. With this in mind, temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side of things tonight with temps mainly in the 50s and 60s. Spotty drizzle, mist and patchy fog are likely to continue through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight as well.

By early Monday morning, with low pressure tracking across the Northeast, a trailing cold front will be approaching the area from the west accompanied with some shortwave energy aloft. Latest trends suggest that the front will be a bit slower to arrive than previously anticipated, so the next round of rain is now not expected to arrive until the pre-dawn hours on Monday and continue through much of the day from northwest to southeast. Widespread showers are likely, with embedded thunderstorms possible, especially south and east of the I-95 corridor and across the Delmarva. The severe risk looks quite low, but cannot rule out a stray gusty storm. Again, this is all dependent on how far north the warm front gets, and will also determine the temperature forecast for Memorial Day. Highs for Memorial Day will mainly be in the low to mid 70s despite abundance of clouds, but could be a few degrees warmer/cooler depending on warm frontal progression. Showers will wane by Monday evening for most, except across far southern New Jersey and across the Delmarva where showers may continue into Tuesday. Additional rainfall totals will generally range from 0.25- 0.50 inches for most, with the exception of the Delmarva and Cape May County where an additional 1-2 inches of rain is possible.

By mid to late week, a more seasonable, dry and benign weather pattern takes shape as high pressure returns to the area.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Until evening...IFR/LIFR CIGs. Light rain showers or some drizzle possible at times. Areas of fog. E to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Tonight...A continuation of low conditions IFR and LIFR expected. A few showers early then more showers (mostly N/W) towards dawn. Light variable winds. Low confid.

Monday... Limited improvement but showers will move across the area during the morning with some improvement back to MVFR possible after that. Light winds becoming Southwest to West late. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible.

Wednesday thru Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE

A continuation of the pattern with High pressure offshore and a lingering front along the shore areas. Weak low pressure moves through Monday and it will be followed by a cold front later Monday. We'll continue with the SCA flag tonight and since it'll take awhile from the seas to settle, we'll continue it into Monday. Seas on the ocean mostly around 5 ft.

A Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier for the southern NJ and Delaware waters as well as for the lower Delaware Bay. We'll continue this too as nearshore cams show fog across those areas and with the milder air arriving across the chilly (mid 50s temps) waters, it appears that the fog will continue. Further north, the fog will probable be more patchy. Low confid in this fog placement, intensity however.

East to Southeast winds this evening turn south around 10 kts later tonight, but seas remain elevated, gradually subsiding to 4 to 5 feet late. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters through tonight. Drizzle and a few showers expected.

On Monday, winds will begin the day from the south around 5 to 10 knots but then switch to Southwest by afternoon speeds will become 10 to 15 kts. The SCA will continue for seas since gusts will likely be 20 kts at most. Showers expected with a chance for a tstm.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

The rip current statement was extended until 8 PM Monday as we expect a HIGH risk of rip currents to persist through this time.

For Monday, winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 4 feet. There will be multiple swell groups including an easterly swell with a 9 second period which will lead to the continuing HIGH risk for dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

For Tuesday, winds will shift to the southeast but diminish to around 5 to 10 mph. Wave heights should subside slightly as well but there will continue to be an easterly swell around 8 to 9 seconds. For these reasons, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ431-452>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.