textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for Thursday and Thursday night for the coastal Atlantic ocean waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High pressure off the Northeast coast is in control until departing tonight. Low pressure then drags a cold front through the area Thursday night through Friday. Below normal temperatures spread into the region for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure off the Northeast coast is in control until departing tonight. Low pressure then drags a cold front through the area Thursday night through Friday. Below normal temperatures spread into the region for this weekend.

High pressure off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts will continue to drift out to sea later today and tonight. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and temperatures will begin to creep up to near normal levels today, then above normal temperatures on Thursday. Although turning warmer, skies will be cloudy under increasing high clouds. Highs will be in the mid and upper 50s today, and then in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday.

A low pressure system will track northeastward out of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes vicinity through southern portions of Ontario and Quebec Thursday night, with a trailing cold front moving through the region into Friday morning. Ahead of this cold front, rain showers will move into northwestern portions of the area by Thursday evening and track southeastward across the area through Friday morning. All showers should clear the region Friday afternoon. Model guidance does depict some modest elevated instability, so a rumble of thunder or two will be possible. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.25-0.5". A breezy southwest wind is expected on Thursday, shifting to northwesterly on Friday. Gusts generally 25- 35 mph are likely.

Once the cold front exits the region, cold air advection through the day Friday will cause falling temperatures through the day. This will be followed by cooler conditions for this weekend. Highs will only be in the 40s on Saturday before warming back up closer to normal on Sunday. High pressure in the wake of the cold front should keep conditions dry through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Increasing high clouds. S winds 5 kt or less this morning, increasing to 8 to 12 kt late this morning and with ocnl gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kt.

Thursday...VFR. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night into Friday...Sub-VFR likely in RA and low CIGs. Improving conditions Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today through Thursday morning, then SCA conditions develop Thursday afternoon. S winds 5 to 10 kt today, becoming SW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt tonight through Thursday morning. On Thursday afternoon, SW winds increase to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, mostly on the ocean waters. Delaware Bay may stay below SCA conditions. Seas 2 to 3 ft today through Thursday morning, then increasing to 3 to 5 ft.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...SCA conditions Thursday night through Friday. VSBY restrictions in rain and fog Thursday night through early Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions with fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.