textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

While the threat for flash flooding on later Saturday and into Sunday remains, it appears to be lesser now. Heavier rains look to be focused on Delmarva and coastal south NJ.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday.

2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday.

The upper H5 trough will remain across the East Coast Saturday and Sunday before lifting away and weakening. There are still a few short waves which will move NE across the Middle Atlantic. There are two favored period for the rains, one is Sat. morning and the second Sat evening and early overnight. These waves will bring increased chances for showers and a few tstms thru the period. Higher chances for rains are across Delmarva and south NJ with categorical/likely pops and chance/slight chance pops will be across the N/w areas Saturday. Pops for all areas are in the 50% to 60% range for Saturday evening and then they decrease overnight. Patchy fog will develop overnight.

One notable change from yesterday is that the systems appear to be showing the higher QPF totals 'out to sea' . The higher totals are now in the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range and will be across the NJ shore areas. Delmarva may also have some totals around an inch thru that period. A few of the CAMs show that a few isolated spots may have close to 2.0 inch totals. We'll continue to monitor these trends.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week.

More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with high clouds much of the night, but MVFR CIGS arrive across the terminals around dawn (near IFR for MIV/ACY/ILG). Light NE/E winds then mostly variable overnight. High/medium confid.

Saturday...MVFR much of the time, but IFR CIGS possible too especially KMIV/KACY closer to the system moving through. Scattered showers expected many sites after 10Z, but prevailing visibility restrictions are not anticipated. Easterly winds 5-10 kts. Medium confid.

Outlook...

Saturday night through early Sunday...Restrictions likely with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through at times. Saturday evening into Saturday Night and Sunday afternoon currently are the periods that have the highest chance for rain/thunderstorms.

Sunday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Conditions will remain below SCA levels tonight and Saturday. Winds will be onshore 5 to 10 knots much of the time and seas on the ocean will average 2 to 3 ft. Fair weather tonight and then showers and a few tstms are expected Saturday. There are both greater chances for rains and thunder across the southern NJ waters and DE/DE Bay waters too.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on the waters Saturday night then only a chance for showers Sunday.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday...Onshore winds around 10 MPH and multiple swell groups (one of which has a 12 to 14 second period) will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. Breaking waves will also be around 2 to 3 feet. For the Delaware Beaches, winds should be lower with lower breaking waves, resulting in a LOW risk for rip currents.

For Sunday...Winds shift southwesterly around 5 to 15 mph with lessening influence from the longer period swells. Breaking waves will be closer to 1 to 2 feet. This will result in a LOW risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.