textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor flooding is expected along the Millstone River at Blackwells Mills.

The Wind Advisory has been expanded north and west.

The existing High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been extended in time with the exception of the Delaware Beaches.

The Storm Warnings/Gales have been extended in time with the exception of lower Delaware Bay and the adjacent Atlantic.

Key message 3 updated with latest rip current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. The nor'easter will retrograde back towards New Jersey over the weekend before finally departing on Tuesday. This will bring periods of additonal rainfall and strong winds to the region.

2. More Moderate to Minor tidal flooding expected for tonight and Sunday. Highest levels water levels will trend less as the storm begins to weaken later Sunday.

3. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Additional beach and dune erosion can be expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor'easter will retrograde back towards New Jersey over the weekend before finally departing on Tuesday. This will bring periods of additonal rainfall and strong winds to the region.

Broad high pressure remains centered over eastern Canada and extends back into the Great Lakes. While the high will weaken and lift into northern portions of the Province of Quebec, it will still be strong enough to create a tight pressure gradient between it and the low off the New Jersey coast. While we'll see a little bit of lull in the winds overnight, an increase is once again expected tomorrow.

We will keep the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in place, but extend them into Sunday. We have posted new Wind Advisories for our remaining zones to the north and west. Given that trees still have their leaves, the combination of these winds and heavy rain will result in downed trees and also power lines. Property damage cannot be ruled at the coast where the winds are highest.

With the track closer to the coast, the higher PoPs that were introduced early this morning will remain in place. PoPs are pretty much in the 80 to 100 percent range across the whole area tonight and Sunday. Event rainfall totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch range along the I-95 corridor and points north and west with as much as 3 inches over much of eastern New Jersey. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This will be over a 48 to 60 hour timeframe, so widespread freshwater flooding is not anticipated at this time. That said, the Millstone River at Griggstown is now expected to crest above flood stage. This is our only forecast point above flood stage. It goes without saying that and freshwater runoff will exacerbate the flooding along the coast. It simply will not be able to drain. We cannot rule out a few embedded thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...More Moderate to Minor tidal flooding expected for tonight and Sunday. Highest levels water levels will trend less as the storm begins to weaken later Sunday.

A slow moving Nor'easter offshore will remain into Sunday and begin to weaken. Although this current/most recent high tide will be/has been the most impactful, we're not out of the woods yet along the coast and back bays. Additional flooding will occur over the next several high tides. There are no changes with the headlines right now. While widespread major flooding is not expected going forward, widespread moderate is.

For Delaware Bay communities, north/northeast winds will keep pushing water to the west side of the Bay and onto the Delaware coast. This will increase the water levels for those communities. The Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 2 AM Sunday for Kent and Sussex, DE. Moderate Flood levels are forecasted for Cumberland and Salem, NJ as well as New Castle, DE, so the Warning will remain in place across these areas.

For the tidal Delaware River, we expect the minor tidal flooding will take place both with the upcoming high tide this afternoon and again early Sunday morning. The strong North to Northeast flow is for the most part keeping the water levels in check for those areas.

As mentioned above,the north to northeast winds will limit the tidal flooding threat for the Chesapeake Bay. Some spotty minor tidal flooding is anticipated at Claiborne around dawn Sunday, but nothing higher than that at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Additional beach and dune erosion can be expected.

A nor'easter is bringing strong north to northeast winds and high seas for our marine zones. Breaking waves within the surf zone of 6 to 12 feet will occur through Sunday. Dangerous rip currents will accompany the high surf, making it extremely dangerous to enter the water at any time through Sunday. The high surf and strong winds are resulting in areas of beach erosion across the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Across some locales, large breaking waves and run- up are also eroding dunes.

The High Risk for life threatening rip currents remains in effect through Sunday for all beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for all beaches through Sunday as well.

The risk for dangerous rip currents will begin to decrease on Monday as winds shift offshore and wave heights begin to decrease. For now have opted for a MODERATE risk for all shore points.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...Mainly MVFR conditions. A period of IFR conditions is possible. Winds northerly 15 to 25 knots gusts to 30- 40 knots. Coastal locations gusting to 40+ knots. Numerous showers.

Tonight...Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in rain, fog, and low CIGs. N winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts inland and gusts as high as 40 kt from time to time at KACY.

Sunday...Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in rain, fog, and low CIGs. NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions in lingering SHRA. Diminishing winds.

Monday through Monday night...Conditions improve to MVFR, then to VFR late Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Widespread storm force winds can be expected across our central and northern nearshore and offshore waters through midday Sunday. For our southern waters and Delaware bay, storm force winds will continue through at least today and be followed up with Gales at some point.

For our central and northern ocean zones, winds will average 35 to 45 kt with gusts as high as 60 kt through tonight. On the Delaware Bay for the remainder of the day, winds will average 20 to 30 kt with gusts as high as 40 kt for the upper bay and up to 50 kt for the lower bay.

Seas will be very rough, as high as 15 to 20 ft on the ocean during this time. VSBY restrictions in rain.

Sunday...Widespread Gales are expected with gusts of 35-45 kts, gradually diminishing below Gale criteria through late afternoon. Seas 8-12 feet early diminish to 6-8 feet late.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Conditions expected to improve considerably. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely.

Monday-Monday night...Conditions continue to improve. Seas may remain above advisory levels while winds continue to diminish below 25 knots.

Tuesday through Thursday...Conditions expected to be below advisory levels.

Rip Currents...Please see Key Message 3 above.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071- 106. NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016. Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NJZ001-007>010-012-013- 015>023-027. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026. High Wind Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001. Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for DEZ001>003. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004. High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ430. Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431-454-455. Storm Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ450>453-480>483. Storm Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ485.