textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A high risk of rip currents and cold ocean water temperatures will create dangerous conditions today through Sunday at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

2. An unsettled holiday weekend is ahead, with the bulk of the rainfall coming Saturday through Sunday Morning. Shower chances albeit lower and warmer temperatures will take hold for the back half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A high risk of rip currents and cold ocean water temperatures will create dangerous conditions today through Sunday at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

An increasing onshore wind along the coast and gusts getting as high as 40 MPH today, the HIGH risk for development of dangerous rip currents will continue. The Rip Current Statement remains in effect through 8 PM for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Breaking waves will also be around 5 to 8 feet at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Due to these breaking wave heights, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday.

Rough conditions continue on Sunday, though winds will not nearly be as strong. WInds become southeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph by late afternoon. Breaking waves will be 3 to 5 feet with an east swell with a 9 second period. There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents.

Ocean temperatures continue to remain mainly in the 50s to low 60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled holiday weekend is ahead, with the bulk of the rainfall coming later today through Sunday Morning. Shower chances albeit lower and warmer temperatures will take hold for the back half of the weekend.

The slow moving front over the Mid-Atlantic continues to lift northward toward the Northeast today. A stronger area of low pressure moves west of the region, but there is a decent overruning setup in place for widespread rainfall with cold air damming in place. Moderate to locally heavy rain develops later today with the heaviest rain tonight into Sunday morning. Rainfall rates do not look impressive so flooding is not expected at this time.

In addition to the rain, it will be quite breezy and raw today, giving the feel of a March Nor'easter. Gusts along the coast up to 40 MPH are expected, with 25 to 35 MPH gusts further inland. Gusts diminish around midnight tonight.

The stalled boundary will continue to wear out its welcome through the rest of the holiday weekend as it lingers over the area. One saving grace will be that showers will be more intermittent but overcast conditions hold. Temperatures will also warm a bit too, with 40s and 50s on Saturday transitioning to widespread 70s by Monday.

When all is said and done, rainfall amounts from this weekend will range from 1 to 3 inches of much needed rainfall.

More seasonable, dry, and benign weather takes hold by the middle of next week as high pressure nudges in from the north.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...VFR with CIGs lowering to MVFR by 12Z. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Today...MVFR this morning, lowering to IFR later today. VSBYs will generally range from MVFR to IFR throughout the day in RA. E winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts, though winds at KACY may be as high as 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...RA tapers off late. IFR/LIFR CIGs. E-NE winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions with rain tapering to some showers. An isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon possible.

Monday and Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Some showers still possible.

Wednesday...VFR overall.

MARINE

A Gale Warning is now in effect for all ocean zones today south of Manasquan Inlet as a period of gale force gusts are likely, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Winds should be a bit less over Delaware Bay and north of Manasquan Inlet, around 30 kt. Seas of 7 to 10 feet expected.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters north of Manasquan Inlet and for Delaware Bay. The Gale Warning ends tonight. The SCA for Delaware Bay ends tonight, while the SCA for north of Manasquan Inlet is in effect through Sunday. A SCA will likely be needed once the Gale Warning ends.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Small Craft Advisory for the ocean zones through Sunday. The winds diminish Sunday from south to north, however elevated seas linger for a while resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

An increasing onshore wind along the coast and gusts getting as high as 40 MPH today, the HIGH risk for development of dangerous rip currents will continue. The Rip Current Statement remains in effect through 8 PM for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Breaking waves will also be around 5 to 8 feet at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Due to these breaking wave heights, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday.

Rough conditions continue on Sunday, though winds will not nearly be as strong. WInds become southeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph by late afternoon. Breaking waves will be 3 to 5 feet with an east swell with a 9 second period. There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents.

Ocean temperatures continue to remain mainly in the 50s to low 60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ451-452-481-482. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455-483- 485.