textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and breezy conditions will result in some fire weather concerns for today.

2. A roller coaster temperature pattern resumes next week, with significant warming through mid week followed by much cooler weather thereafter, along with multiple chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1. Dry and breezy conditions will result in some fire weather concerns for today.

High pressure over the Midwest gradually moves eastward through today. A tight pressure gradient will remain overhead until the high gets closer, resulting in dry and brisk northwest flow. The result will be wind gusts between 25 and 35 MPH picking up not long after daybreak and continuing through most of the day. Winds relax quickly after sunset as the gradient weakens with the area of high pressure moving in.

Rainfall received yesterday will be the limiting factor for a critical fire weather day today. However, with RH values dropping to around 20-30% and breezy winds of 25 to 35 MPH, there is some concern for enhanced fire spread should something ignite. After some collaboration with fire weather partners, a Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of wildfire spread will be issued for our Delaware and Eastern Shore counties for today.

Flow turns more south/southwest tomorrow with lesser winds. This should be only one day of elevated fire weather conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A roller coaster temperature pattern resumes next week, with significant warming through mid week followed by much cooler weather thereafter, along with multiple chances of rain.

Warm front starts lifting northward across the region Monday, with increasing clouds and perhaps a few spotty showers, though latest NBM is fairly dry. Temperatures will moderate somewhat, with highs returning to the 60s for much of the region, perhaps touching 70 in spots.

Best chance of any rain with the warm front remains Monday night per the latest NBM, with best odds across the Poconos. Lows will moderate significantly, with much of the region not dropping below 50.

Warmer air floods the region, except perhaps the immediate coast, on Tuesday, with widespread 70s as the warm front clears the region. Still a small chance of lingering rain in the Poconos.

We most likely get deepest into the warm sector Tuesday night, with the lowest chance of rain and many areas possibly staying in the 60s through the night.

Cold front plows through late Wednesday, with highs possibly reaching the low 80s for many followed by showers and thunderstorms (will need to watch any severe potential) followed by rapid cooling back to the 40s by the end of Wednesday night.

We'll try to dry out Thursday, but with much cooler weather in place, with highs only in the 50s. Best chance of lingering rain will be in southern parts of the forecast area south of Philly.

Things get tricky towards week's end, as a wave of low pressure may push into the area with the fresh cold air mass. Much of the area may stay in the 40s with rain, and if there is just enough cold air, some mixing with snow isn't impossible across northern locales. It is, after all, only early April... one of Philly's biggest snow storms EVER was April 3rd 1915 when 19 inches fell, so its certainly within the realm to still get a little snow this time of year. We'll just have to wait and see...

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR. North/northwest winds around 6 to 12 kt. High confidence.

Today...VFR. Northwest winds 15-20 kt and gusts 20-30 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds quickly diminish after 00z, mainly out of the northwest around 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday...Generally VFR, but sub-VFR conditions possible in showers.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR likely with rain showers and possible t-storms.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all marine zones today until 4 PM. Winds will pick up later this morning out of the northwest around 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Seas of 3 to 5 feet expected today.

For tonight and Sunday, no marine headlines are anticipated. Winds will be light tonight under 10 kt, increasing to around 10-20 kt on Sunday as flow turns more southwesterly. Do not expect needing an SCA tomorrow, but cannot rule it out entirely. Seas of 2 to 4 feet for tonight and tomorrow.

Outlook... Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop Monday and persist through Tuesday as a warm front lifts northward, with southwesterly to southerly winds gusting 25-30 kts and seas of 5-6 feet.

Gale conditions are possible Tuesday night and especially Wednesday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region, with gusts possibly up to 35 kts and seas of 6-10 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430- 431-451>455. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450.