textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense Fog Advisory for southern Poconos is no longer in effect.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A HIGH risk of rip currents will create dangerous conditions at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches today.

2. Unsettled weather continues today as a sequence of fronts and areas of low pressure move through the area.

3. Drier and more seasonable conditions return for the middle and end of this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH risk of rip currents will create dangerous conditions at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches today.

A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through 8 pm today for a HIGH risk of the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

Today, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 4 feet. There will be an easterly swell with a 9 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues today as a sequence of fronts and areas of low pressure move through the area.

With visibilities improving to over 1/4SM in Carbon and Monroe counties, will go ahead and cancel the Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect for those two counties.

Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will lift to the northeast, pulling a warm front north through most of the region this morning. The front will hang over the area, then a cold front associated with the aformentioned low will pass through the region later this afternoon and tonight. Weak low pressure will track on that front.

An area of showers is moving through western New York and western Pennsylvania and is tracking to the north and east. This is associated with low pressure on a cold front that is lifting into eastern Canada. Meanwhile, as this low lifts to the north and east, it is pulling a warm front out ahead of it north through the local area. Patchy fog, drizzle, and some light rain as well as low clouds are in place through the morning.

As that cold front approaches, those showers will move into western portions of the forecast area by daybreak. Those showers will interact with that warm front, and may trigger some thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall, initially around the southern Poconos, Berks county, the the Lehigh Valley, then tracking east towards the I-95 corridor.

The cold front then passes through the region later today, and then showers and thunderstorms redevelop, this time over southern New Jersey and Delmarva. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible in the stronger storms.

Patchy fog and low clouds may redevelop tonight.

Highs today will be warmer than the last couple of days, generally topping off in the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier and more seasonable conditions return for the middle and end of this week.

Our cold front sinks south of the area Tuesday but will remain nearby. Due to the location of the front, some showers are possible during the day for portions of Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with cooler conditions near the coast. Another cold front sinks south Wednesday. This front looks to lack moisture and may only result in a stray shower. For portions of Delmarva, the other front located nearby to our south will lead to more chances for rain showers during the day Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with it again being cooler by the coast. Towards the second half of this week, a high pressure system builds in leading to drier conditions Thursday into Friday. Temperatures both days reach into the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR CIGs persist this morning, lifting to MVFR this afternoon, then to VFR prior to 00Z. Winds become W-NW around 5 kt around midday. A round of SHRA will move into I-95 corridor terminals this morning. Another round of SHRA and possible TSRA may impact KACY/KMIV this afternoon/evening. Low confidence.

Tonight...VFR initially. Potential for sub-VFR conds redeveloping in BR and stratus. LGT/VRB winds. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible.

Wednesday thru Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE

The Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to include all offshore waters. The Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 11 am.

While winds have diminished, elevated seas will be around 5 feet, and the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters through 6 pm today. Sub-SCA conditions thereafter.

Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this evening, then turning north late tonight.

Aside from the fog, showers will develop later today with a chance for thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through 8 pm today for a HIGH risk of the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

Today, south to southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 4 feet. There will be an easterly swell with a 9 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

On Tuesday, winds will shift to the east-southeast, but will be 5 to 10 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet with an easterly swell around 7 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-431- 450>455-480>483-485. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.