textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Gale Warning for the Atlantic coastal waters and offshore waters from Great Egg Inlet NJ to Fenwick Island DE has been allowed to expire. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all of the Atlantic coastal waters through Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A HIGH risk of rip currents and rough surf will create dangerous conditions through Sunday at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

2. A dreary holiday weekend continues with the bulk of rainfall coming this afternoon through Sunday morning. Shower chances will decrease later Sunday and into Monday with a gradual warming in temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH risk of rip currents and rough surf will create dangerous conditions through Sunday at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

The Rip Current Statement was extended until 8 PM Sunday for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For the remainder of the day today, expect east winds 15 to 25 gusting 30 to 40 mph at times. Breaking waves in the surf zone will be around 5 to 8 feet at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Due to these breaking wave heights, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through 8 AM Sunday.

Rough conditions continue on Sunday, though winds will not be nearly as strong. Winds become southeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph by late afternoon. Breaking waves will be 3 to 5 feet with an east swell with a 9 second period. This will support a continuing HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A dreary holiday weekend continues with the bulk of rainfall coming this afternoon through Sunday morning. Shower chances will decrease later Sunday and into Monday with a gradual warming in temperatures.

Latest surface analysis this afternoon shows the stalled frontal boundary located south of the Mid-Atlantic region nestled across the Carolinas and into the western Atlantic. To the northwest, an area of low pressure is tracking across northern Ohio as another weak surface low develops off the coast of the Carolinas. As a whole, little overall change is expected to the current surface pattern as several weak waves of low pressure will pass through the region causing periods of light to moderate rain to continue through Sunday morning. Rainfall rates do appear to be remaining on the lighter side, so not expecting any flash flooding with this event. In addition, it will become increasingly more breezy later this afternoon and into early this evening as low pressure to our south strengthens the pressure gradient. Gusty winds up to 30 mph inland and up to 40 mph along the coast are expected, before waning after midnight from south to north. Some patchy fog is possible as well tonight, mainly across the Delmarva and near coastal locales. Additional rainfall amounts around 0.5-1.5 inches are expected through Sunday, with localized higher amounts possible.

The stalled boundary will continue to wear out come later Sunday and eventually lift north of the area by Monday. As a result, showers will become more intermittent and less in coverage but the persistent cloud cover will remain. Temperatures will also be gradually warming as well, with highs on Sunday in the low 60s to low 70s, and highs on Monday mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

By mid to late week, a more seasonable, dry and benign weather pattern takes hold as high pressure returns to the area.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Prevailing IFR ceilings likely, with visibility restrictions at times. Some LIFR ceilings become possible after 06Z. Rain continues, but tapers off a bit through 06Z before increasing in coverage again after 06Z. East- northeast winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Patchy fog possible. Low- moderate confidence overall.

Sunday...Prevailing IFR conditions likely with some LIFR ceilings possible. Widespread rain tapers off through the morning, but rain showers remain likely through the remainder of the day. Outside of the rain showers, areas of drizzle and mist will lead to visibility restrictions at times. East- northeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR conditions with showers. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.

Monday...IFR/MVFR conditions should improve to VFR. Some showers, with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the offshore waters from Manasquan Inlet to Great Egg Inlet until 2 AM Sunday. An east wind continues with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas of 8 to 10 feet expected tonight. The remainder of the Gale Warnings have been allowed to expire.

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all of the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Sandy Hook to Fenwick Island DE until 6 AM Monday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Delaware Bay until 2 AM Sunday. Gusty east winds are expected to gust up to 30 kt before gradually diminishing through Sunday.

Periods of light to moderate rain are expected to continue through tonight into Sunday. Periods of patchy dense marine fog is possible later tonight into Sunday as well.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...Seas will continue to subside.

Tuesday through Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

Rough surf conditions continue through Sunday, though winds Sunday will not be nearly as strong as today. Winds become southeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph by late afternoon Sunday. Breaking waves will be 3 to 5 feet with an east swell with a 9 second period. This will support a continuing HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For Monday, winds will be lighter with less of an onshore component as they will be out of the south around 5 to 10 mph. Breaking waves will generally be around 2 to 4 feet. These conditions will support a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ481-482.