textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 0z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A high risk of rip currents and cold ocean water temperatures will create dangerous conditions through Saturday at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

2. An unsettled holiday weekend is ahead, with the bulk of the rainfall coming Saturday through Sunday Morning. Shower chances albeit lower and warmer temperatures will take hold for the back half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A high risk of rip currents and cold ocean water temperatures will create dangerous conditions through Saturday at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

An increasing onshore wind along the coast and gusts getting as high as 40 MPH on Saturday, the HIGH risk for development of dangerous rip currents will continue. The Rip Current Statement has been extended through 8 PM Saturday for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Breaking waves will also be around 5 to 8 feet at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Due to these breaking wave heights, a High Surf Advisory has been issued for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday.

Ocean temperatures continue to remain mainly in the 50s to low 60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled holiday weekend is ahead, with the bulk of the rainfall coming Saturday through Sunday Morning. Shower chances albeit lower and warmer temperatures will take hold for the back half of the weekend.

A weak system is sliding along a stalled boundary to our south and east, resulting in some showers over Delmarva, South Jersey, and portions of SE PA. These showers may abate for a time in some spots through the mid to late evening before steadier rain makes a push northward through the region by later tonight.

The slow moving front continues to slide northward toward our area for Saturday. A stronger area of low pressure moves by to our west but we should have a decent overruning setup in place for widespread rainfall with cold air damming in place. Saturday into Saturday Night looks to be a washout. Rain will continue for several hours, but rainfall rates do not look impressive so flooding isn't expected at this time.

In addition to the rain, it will be quite breezy and raw tomorrow giving the feel of a March Nor'easter. Gusts along the coast up to 40 MPH are expected, with 25 to 35 MPH gusts further inland. Gusts diminish around midnight Saturday night.

The stalled boundary will continue to wear out its welcome through the rest of the holiday weekend as it lingers over the area. One saving grace will be that showers will be more intermittent but overcast conditions hold. Temperatures will also warm a bit too, with 40s and 50s on Saturday transitioning to widespread 70s by Monday.

When all is said and done, rainfall amounts from this weekend will range from 1 to 3 inches. We certainly need the rain though the timing of it coming over the unofficial start of summer is less than ideal.

More seasonable, dry, and benign weather takes hold by the middle of next week as high pressure nudges in from the north.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR as guidance has trended slower with bringing in lower cigs. There will be some showers around but mainly from around PHL southward. East winds generally around 5 to 10 knots backing slightly towards northeast by morning. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...Rainy with conditions lowering to MVFR through the morning and then IFR through the early to mid afternoon. Brisk east/northeast winds around 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR conditions with rain.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions with rain tapering to some showers. An isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon possible.

Monday and Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Some showers still possible.

Wednesday...VFR overall.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in place for all zones through tonight. Winds out of the east/northeast around 20-30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

A Gale Warning is now in effect for all ocean zones for Saturday south of Manasquan Inlet as a period of gale force gusts are likely, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Winds should be a bit less over Delaware Bay and north of Manasquan Inlet, around 30 kt. Seas of 7 to 10 feet expected.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Winds diminish quickly and gale force winds decline after 10 PM. Conditions improve overnight on Delaware Bay, where the SCA goes through midnight. A Small Craft Advisory will replace the Gale Warning.

Sunday and Monday...Small Craft Advisory for the ocean zones through Sunday. The winds diminish Sunday from south to north, however elevated seas linger for a while resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, winds are more out of the east and will range from 25 to 30 mph with 35 to 40 mph gusts. Seas will reach 8 to 10 feet with a period of 10 to 13 seconds and breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents and a Rip Current Statement has been extended through Saturday evening for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Due to the breaking wave heights of 5 to 8 feet, a High Surf Advisory has been issued for all of the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday.

On Sunday, winds are more out of the southeast and will decrease to 10 to 15 mph by the afternoon. Seas will remain at 6 to 8 feet with a period of 8 to 10 seconds and breaking waves of 3 to 6 feet. This should result in a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

Ocean temperatures continue to remain mainly in the 50s to low 60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ451>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ451- 452-481-482. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ453>455- 483-485.