textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. The nor'easter departs the region Tuesday.

2. Coastal flooding threat lowered in many areas but still a concern along the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

3. Unsettled weather possible Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor'easter departs the region Tuesday.

The nor'easter continues to weaken as it tracks slowly northeastward out of the Northeastern US.

Winds have now weakened substantially compared to the past few days, now only around 10 mph or less out of the NW. Still some spotty sprinkles early this morning, but coverage continues to dwindle. Cloud coverage will linger through Tuesday with a few breaks possible. That said, not expecting a wall-to-wall sunny day just yet.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Coastal flooding threat lowered in many areas but still a concern along the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

Overall, tidal flooding concerns continue to diminish as winds have shifted offshore. Additional flooding at high tides is expected to be spotty minor for most locations.

Minor flooding of back bays continues to affect Ocean County NJ and Sussex County DE. Given the offshore flow, water levels will gradually recede from here. However, minor flooding is expected to persist into Tuesday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 2 PM Tuesday for these locations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather possible Friday through Sunday.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area late Friday into Friday night. As it moves into the area, there will be a chance of showers. However, as the vorticity impulse aloft weakens, the showers may dissipate for many areas as the move eastward. However, additional rain fall is expected to move back into the area Saturday night into Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front as it stalls to our south Saturday, then move northward across the area through Sunday. Showers will increase Saturday night into Sunday as a couple of short wave/vorticity impulses move into the area, along with the surface low pressure.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tuesday...Any lingering MVFR ceilings will give way to prevailing VFR by mid morning with NW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR. Winds light and variable. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Friday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday night-Saturday...Occasional MVFR conditions with a chance of showers.

Saturday night...MVFR conditions increase, possible IFR, with increasing rain chances.

MARINE

Small craft conditions not expected. Some visibility restrictions early in the morning. Otherwise, seas 2-3 feet with westerly winds around 10 kts or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday...Northwest winds in the morning around 10 mph will become west-southwest in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1 to 3 feet are expected with a lingering 2 foot easterly swell around 7 to 9 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Wednesday...Northwest winds in the morning around 5 to 10 mph will become south in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1 to 2 feet are expected with a lingering 1 to 2 foot easterly swell around 8 to 10 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to go with a LOW risk for rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

The surf season will conclude for the year on September 30th. No further rip current forecasts will be issued beyond September 30th until 2027.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ020-026. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ003-004. MD...None. MARINE...None.