textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for Labor Day Weekend. The exception to this will be later tonight into Sunday when some showers could affect the New Jersey coastal plain as well as parts of Delmarva.

2. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon's high tide, mainly for the Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities.

3. A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for Labor Day Weekend. The exception to this will be later tonight into Sunday when some showers could affect the New Jersey coastal plain as well as parts of Delmarva.

Mainly dry weather is expected to prevail for the day today as high pressure slowly builds in to our north. One thing to note though is that a broad upper level trough will be lingering to our east over the Canadian Maritimes and this will still be sending spokes of energy around it into the mid Atlantic region. For this reason, can't completely rule out some spotty showers mainly over Delmarva. However even here POPs are only 20% or less so most areas should not see anything. Otherwise, following some early morning stratus generally expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs generally in the low to mid 80s except upper 70s north. It will also be notably less humid and more comfortable compared to our recent weather.

For tonight into the first half of Sunday, another spoke of energy rounding the upper low to our east will bring a somewhat better chance for some showers to affect the NJ coastal plain into portions of Delmarva. This will also result in some cloudiness overnight into the day Sunday. This combined with NE winds increasing to 10-15 mph into the day Sunday along the coast will result in not quite as ideal conditions there as earlier forecast. Expect highs Sunday generally only in the mid 70s near the coast due to the onshore flow with upper 70s to low 80s inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon's high tide, mainly for the Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities.

Flow will turn more onshore over the next day or so. This will result in water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, potentially leading to minor tidal flooding across portions of our area on Sunday afternoon. The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Barnegat Bay on south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within Delaware Bay. Advisories may be needed in these spots but will wait to see how things trend over the 12 hours with the forecast.

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow turns more offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

By Tuesday, high pressure will begin to shift offshore welcoming the return of slightly above-normal temperatures and an increase in humidity levels. High pressure looks like it will still be in control through mid-week, before giving way to a cold front that will be approaching from the north and west Wednesday night into Thursday. This front will be the next opportunity for any showers or thunderstorms around the area. However moisture with the front could end up being limited so at this point POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent or less.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR expected. North to Northeast winds around 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Continuing VFR with light north to northeast winds around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR expected. No significant weather expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions through Saturday and Saturday night.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected. Northeast winds may briefly get gusty on Sunday, but should remain below SCA criteria. Seas will generally range around 2-4 feet.

Wednesday...SCA conditions possible due to wind gusts around 25 kt with seas around 3-5 feet.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, northerly winds mainly 5-10 mph with breaking waves in the surf zone less than 2 feet. Therefore, will continue with the LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

For Sunday, winds will be more out of the northeast or east-northeast and increase to 10-15 mph. This will build the seas into the coast, with breaking waves in the surf zone 2-3 feet. We will continue with LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents, however if the breaking waves increase some more then the risk could increase to moderate.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.