textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood watch has expired.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday may cause additional isolated issues, but the overall theme is a decreasing risk of flooding through mid-week.

2) High pressure builds in for Wednesday with the chance of showers and storms returning again for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday may cause additional isolated issues, but the overall theme is a decreasing risk of flooding through mid-week.

Stalled front has sagged a bit further south over the last few hours, while best forcing continues to be further east and best instability further west. With PWATs remaining on the higher side, rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will be possible through Tuesday, but overall the threat for severe weather and flooding is lowering over time as convective coverage continues to wane overall thanks to an increasingly stable east to northeast wind. So, will allow flood watch to expire at 8 PM as previously planned. Spotty convection may develop overnight due to upper level forcing, while increased insolation during the day Tuesday may assist, but with coverage expected to remain low overall, no plans for any additional headlines. That said, which some areas now saturated and high PW's remaining, any convection, no matter how spotty, will require attention through Tuesday as isolated flood/severe issues can't yet be completely ruled out. That waits til Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure builds in for Wednesday with the chance of showers and storms returning again for Thursday and Friday.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday with seasonable temperatures and partly to mostly sunny skies expected.

As we head towards the end of the week into next weekend, a new frontal boundary and associated upper level trough will move in from the west bringing a return to chances of showers and storms. POPs increase to 40-60 percent by Thursday evening and continue through Friday. It's possible that the front and associated showers/storms linger for the start of next weekend however forecast confidence is low by this time.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Shower coverage wanes tonight, however, residual scattered showers may continue throughout the night. Ceilings are expected to be prevailing IFR to LIFR through the night. Patchy areas of fog cannot be ruled out. North-northeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate-low confidence overall.

Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Anticipate IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through much of the day. Northeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Chances for showers return by late Thursday into Friday and this could result in sub VFR conditions at times.

MARINE

No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday. East- northeast winds around 5-10 kt are expected through tonight. For Tuesday, north-northeast winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Seas generally around 2-4 feet.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight and Tuesday. Any heavier shower or storm may produce locally higher winds.

Outlook...

No marine headlines are currently anticipated through the rest of the week.

Rip Currents...

Through Wednesday...Winds remain east to southeast around 10 kt, with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Resulting NE wind wave will return an elevated MODERATE Rip Current Risk along much of the Jersey Shore Tuesday and Wednesday, with LOW risk persisting over Cape May/Atlantic Counties and the Delaware Beaches, where winds remain lighter and more SSE through Wednesday afternoon.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.