textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of the weekend. The exception will be near the coast of New Jersey into southern Delaware where some showers are possible today.

2. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with this afternoon's high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM.

3. A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of the weekend. The exception will be near the coast of New Jersey into southern Delaware where some showers are possible today.

A drier and cooler airmass has arrived across the northern Middle Atlantic region as high pressure to the northwest begins influencing our weather to a greater degree. Low pressure aloft across the the Northern Atlantic continues to bring Northwest flow aloft over our area. A couple embedded short waves in this flow will pass across New England and our coastal waters into the day today. This may result in some scattered showers near the New Jersey coast this morning with this activity then drifting south into southern Delaware by the afternoon. Pops are generally in the 20% to 35% range, so no significant impacts are expected. Otherwise expect a mix of sun and clouds for today with a northeast breeze around 5 to 10 mph. Highs will be in the 70s along the coast and over our northern zones with some low 80s over much of Delmarva through the Greater Philadelphia region. Similar conditions will follow for Labor Day with sunshine and highs close to if not a bit warmer than Sunday's highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with this afternoon's high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM.

Flow will continue to turn more onshore today. This will result in water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, leading to minor tidal flooding across portions of our area this afternoon. The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Atlantic City on south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland County in NJ and Kent and Sussex County in Delaware from 3 PM this afternoon until 9 PM this evening

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow turns more offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

Mid-level ridging will be in place across central and northeastern portions of the US through Tuesday, with high pressure also in control at the surface. The result will be tranquil conditions. Starting on Wednesday, ridging aloft is expected to begin to break down as an upper-low tracks eastward from portions of Ontario into portions of Quebec. Current guidance has height falls beginning across the area on Wednesday, with a strong shortwave pivoting through the region on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore Wednesday, with a cold front moving through sometime on Thursday.

Wednesday into Thursday, as the high shifts offshore, warm and moist southerly flow will resume across the area, with highs warming into the mid-upper 80s for many, and dewpoints rising into the 60s.

It is not entirely out of the question that as the ridge begins to break down some shower and storm chances could ultimately evolve across portions of the area Wednesday night. We currently feature PoPs generally in the 20-30% range for this time period mainly for northwestern portions of the area. Slightly better shower and storm chances are likely to exist across the area on Thursday when the actual cold front moves through the region. At this point, PoPs thursday are also generally in the 20-30% range, but would not be surprised if they trend up some in the coming days. Currently, the threat for severe storms or flash flooding concerns appears low.

In the wake of the cold front, dry conditions look to return for Friday and Saturday, along with cooler temperatures. High temperatures look to be in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Primarily VFR. SCT clouds around 4 kft AGL could become BKN at times. Northeast winds 5-10 kts, trending towards easterly late in the day. A few light showers can't be ruled out, primarily at MIV and ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight..VFR with winds light and variable but generally favoring and east to northeast direction. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions through today and tonight though some scattered showers can be expected over the waters.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected. Seas will generally range around 2-4 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions probable due to wind gusts around 25-30 kt with seas around 4-6 feet. Conditions will peak late Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually diminishing on Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, while winds will be onshore with a northeast wind, breaking waves should remain low (around 2 feet or less) and winds 10 to 15 MPH or lower. An 8 second wave period will also limit the rip current risk. As a result, elected for a LOW Risk at all beaches.

For Labor Day, winds will generally be out of the east, but rather light - around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves remain around 2 feet or lower with an 8 second period. This will result in another LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ021>025. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...None.