textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale Warnings have been converted to Small Craft Advisories. Otherwise, no changes since previous update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable and tranquil weather returns through Tuesday.

2) Unsettled wintry weather with impacts possible mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable and tranquil weather returns through Tuesday.

Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to move into the North Atlantic as a broad surface high builds over the Deep South. Winds will continue to diminish through the day today as the pressure gradient eases. The surface high will then largely be in control through Tuesday before moving offshore later in the day. All in all, expected tranquil and dry weather through Tuesday under mainly clear skies. Temperatures will be seasonable today with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees tonight. Temps moderate a bit on Tuesday, where highs will be a touch warmer ranging in the mid to upper 40s across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled wintry weather with impacts possible mid to late week.

Long range models continue to show that low pressure and associated fronts may arrive over the Middle Atlantic region for mid to late week. There is ample uncertainty with regards to the details presently to offer any specific details. We will continue with largely chance PoPs in the forecast for rain and snows during the Wednesday through Thursday night periods. Our temperatures forecast for these times would support snow for the, climatologically favored, N/W counties and mostly rain and perhaps some snow for S/E areas.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR with FEW/SCT high clouds. West-southwest winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt around mid-day. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds around 3-8 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday thru Tuesday night...VFR expected.

Wednesday thru Thursday...sub-VFR at times with lower CIGs as well as rain (S/E) and snow possible (N/W).

Friday...VFR expected.

MARINE

Remaining Gale Warnings have been converted to Small Craft Advisories. Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic Coastal Waters are in effect until 10 AM today. The Small Craft Advisory on the Delaware Bay has been cancelled.

West-northwest winds around 20-30 kt this morning will continue to diminish before settling out of the southwest around 10-20 kt this afternoon. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt will then continue through tonight. Seas around 3-5 feet this morning, lower to 2-3 feet this afternoon through tonight. Fair weather expected outside of marine headlines.

Outlook...

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels Tuesday with fair weather expected. Beyond that, low-end SCA conditions for the ocean (mainly) are expected for Tue night and Wednesday and again for Thursday. Gales are possible for Thursday night and Friday. Rain and snow possible Wed thru Thursday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ450>455.