textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the key message section, the aviation section, and marine section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. The weekend will begin with drier, cooler, and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Winds will diminish with temperatures moderating some for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The weekend will begin with drier, cooler, and breezy conditions in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Winds will diminish with temperatures moderating some for Sunday.

The initial weaker cold front is continuing to move offshore this evening with the precipitation gradually tapering off into early tonight. A secondary cold front moves through overnight which will help usher in cooler air for this weekend as a surface low pressure system departs to the northeast.

For this weekend, there will be an upper-level closed low that will be slowly approaching from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. During the day Saturday, this closed low will move eastward right through our forecast area by later in the day. Meanwhile, low pressure at the surface will deepen as it pulls east of New England. The gradient between this low, and high pressure towards the center of the country, will result in a breezy day in addition to cooler temperatures compared to our recent warmth. Generally expect highs for Saturday in the upper 50s to around 60 with it feeling even cooler with the breeze. Expect west to WNW winds around 10-15 gusting up to 25 mph. The day should overall feature a mix of sun and clouds with a few showers possible across the southern Poconos due to the upper low moving through and the tail end of some lake effect to the north and west.

Heading into the second half of the weekend, the upper-level low departs to the north and east as shortwave ridging moves in. The pressure gradient also relaxes some as the surface low pull farther away into Atlantic Canada. This will result in a lighter breeze with slightly warmer temperatures compared to Saturday and a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the low 60s following morning lows mainly ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Generally dry and fair weather looks to dominate for early through mid next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR expected. Rain showers linger through around 03Z for KMIV/KACY. Northwest winds around 5 kt, increasing after 08-10Z to around 10 kt with gusts upwards of 15-20 kt. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Northwest winds around around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR. Gusty WNW winds possible on Monday. Otherwise, no significant weather.

MARINE

The initial Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic coastal waters was allowed to expire earlier this evening along with the Marine Dense Fog Advisory. After a lull in conditions for part of tonight, wind and seas are expected to increase again late tonight into Saturday. A new Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all of the Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay. For the Atlantic coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 4 AM Saturday the through 6 AM Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay is also for 4 AM Saturday through 6 AM Sunday. The Atlantic coastal water zones from Great Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook goes from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday. The Small Craft Advisories are for west-northwest winds 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kts amd seas of 3 to 5 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Saturday night. The wind and seas will gradually diminish Sunday morning. Winds will remain on the breezy side for much of the period lasting through midweek with another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible later Sunday night into Monday and then again on Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ430-431-453>455. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ450>452.