textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Timing adjustments have been made to the Small Craft Advisories and Gale Watch.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A low pressure system will pass through the region this weekend with widespread showers and seasonably chilly temperatures.

2. Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will pass through the region this weekend with widespread showers and seasonably chilly temperatures.

A high pressure system to the north in eastern Canada will extend down into the Northeast this weekend. As a result, winds will be out of the east today and then turn more out of the northeast tomorrow. This onshore flow will help keep temperatures on the chillier side through the weekend. Highs today will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s for most. For tomorrow, highs are in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A low pressure system will move into the region today and then offshore tomorrow. This low pressure system will bring rain showers to the area into tomorrow. The most widespread coverage of the rain showers looks to be this afternoon into tonight. Showers taper off through tomorrow morning with perhaps a lingering shower into tomorrow afternoon near the coast. Our weekend is shaping up to be wet, breezy, and chilly, especially today. Rainfall totals through tomorrow, will range from around 1 to 1.50 inches across much of the area with localized higher amounts. While this may be unpleasant, especially since it will be over the weekend, it is good to remember that this is a beneficial rainfall.

With cooler air wrapping in from the north tonight, it is possible some wet snow tries to mix in with the rain for the Poconos. Little to no accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of next week.

After a brief period of high pressure on Monday, a weak frontal boundary approaches the region late Tuesday, bringing a chance for light rain. This frontal boundary will largely wash out across the region early Wednesday before another stronger low arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday that could bring more widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonable with afternoon highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the 40s to around 50.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR to start in the morning, dropping to MVFR by the late morning/early afternoon and eventually IFR by the late afternoon as showers and low stratus move into the area. Winds out of the east/southeast around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. High confidence in occurrence of restrictions, moderate confidence in timing.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR as showers move through the area and low clouds hang around. Patchy fog possible as the night goes on and rain showers move out. Winds out of the east/northeast around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Lingering sub-VFR conds in SHRA/stratus in the morning. Gradual improvement through the afternoon and evening.

Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA/stratus.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the Delaware Bay and the Atlantic coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island at 8 AM today through 7 AM tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet at 11 AM today through 7 AM tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet at 4 PM today through 8 PM tomorrow. For tomorrow, a Gale Watch is in effect from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island starting at 7 AM tomorrow and runs until 8 PM tomorrow. The Atlantic waters out 20-60 NM also have a Gale Watch starting at 7 AM tomorrow from Sandy Hook to Fenwick Island until 8 PM tomorrow.

SCA conditions develop from south to north today with an east wind increasing to 15-25 kt and gusts 25-30 kt. Seas increase to 4-7 feet by this afternoon and evening. Tonight, winds remain generally out of the east at 20-30 kt with gusts starting to approach 35 kt towards tomorrow morning for Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island. Seas tonight reach 6-10 feet. For tomorrow, for the marine zones in a Gale Watch, a northeast wind 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. For the marine zones in an SCA, a northeast wind 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kts. Seas tomorrow remain at 6-10 feet. Visibility restrictions are also expected in rain and fog today into tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night...Winds look to drop to SCA criteria Sunday night with seas remaining at 6-8 feet. SCA conditions will linger through Monday with NE winds gusting to 25 kts and seas at 5-7 feet. Winds diminish below SCA criteria Monday night, but seas will remain elevated.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible due to elevated seas. NE to E winds around 10-15 kts.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ451. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ451>455-481>483-485. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ452>455.