textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 06z TAFs

Small Craft Advisory extended for Delaware Bay through 5 PM today.

Rainfall amounts continue to trend down.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front approaches today bringing some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder, though no significant impacts are expected.

2. The overall weather pattern remains unsettled through the weekend with cool temperatures late week giving way to a warming trend over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front approaches today bringing some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder, though no significant impacts are expected.

A cold front is currently draped over north central Pennsylvania extending down towards western Pennsylvania, slowly inching its way toward our region. Morning radar has some showers over the Pittsburgh area, slowing marching across the commonwealth.

Showers will move into our area later this morning, slowly pushing through towards the coast as the day goes on. It won't be the nicest early May day but it won't be a total washout either, especially for areas south and east of the I-95 corridor. As the front comes through this evening, there could be some isolated low topped thunderstorms right along the front, mainly for South Jersey and Delmarva, but no severe weather is expected. The front slowly sags south and east, with some showers possible overnight south/east of I-95, but nothing significant expected. The front's location late tonight into tomorrow continues to trend further east and rainfall over the next few days continues to drop. Current forecast over today and tomorrow has around a tenth to half an inch of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The overall weather pattern remains unsettled through the weekend with cool temperatures late week giving way to a warming trend over the weekend.

Following the frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday, another wave of low pressure will develop along it as it briefly stalls out for a time just to our south. This could bring some additional light rain to portions of Delmarva and southern NJ Thursday morning however the overall trend has been to track this wave and it's associated precip a bit farther south. Otherwise, it will be cool for this time of year with highs Thursday generally in the 60s. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday before additional rounds of low pressure could bring some more rain to the region for Saturday and then again by later Sunday. These appear to be nothing more than potential weekend spoilers with no significant impacts expected at this time. High temperatures Saturday generally look to be in the 60s to low 70s with highs Sunday generally in the 70s to near 80.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through 12z...VFR. Low level wind shear for the next few hours at KACY/KRDG/KABE. Winds out of the south/southeast around 10 to 15 kt and gusts 20 to 25 kt. High confidence.

Today...VFR to start but conditions drop to MVFR later this morning as showers and low clouds begin to move through. Did add a period of IFR CIGs for KPNE, KTTN, KABE, and KRDG, but cannot rule out IFR CIGs getting down to KPHL or KILG. Brief periods of MVFR VSBYs possible at times, though have highest confidence in lower visibilities for the Lehigh Valley terminals. Winds out of the south/southeast around 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt. Low confidence.

Tonight...Winds shift and become west/northwesterly early this evening as a cold front passes. Winds should diminish with the frontal passage and hover around 10 kt or so. While some stratus may hang on as the front passes, would expect improvement to VFR by 04z-07z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...mainly VFR. No significant weather expected.

Saturday through Sunday...Sub VFR conditions possible at times as a couple systems move through with showers and the risk of some thunderstorms.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones through today. Winds out of the south/southwest around 15-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt on Delaware Bay and near 30 kt over the open ocean. Seas of 4 to 7 feet.

Winds diminish this afternoon and evening as a cold front passes, and become northwesterly around 10-15 kt overnight. This will allow the SCA to expire for Delaware Bay at 5 PM tonight, but seas within the ocean zones remain in the 4 to 6 foot range.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...No marine headlines expected.

Saturday through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Saturday during the day and again for Sunday as a pair of systems move through.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.