textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

SYNOPSIS

A large and slow moving low pressure system across Quebec will continue to move east overnight. A trough lingering behind the low will remain across the area into Friday. High pressure gradually builds in the weekend and remain into the next week. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday or Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure continues to build in from the south and west as yesterday's low pressure system continues to push north and east across New England and into Quebec. The resultant pressure gradient will linger through tonight and into Friday, causing gusty winds to persist. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire region through Friday afternoon.

Through tonight, WNW winds will continue to ramp up, causing gusts as high as 40-50 mph. Winds taper off slightly after midnight, but will still gust as high as 30-40 mph. A well-mixed boundary layer tonight will prevent strong radiational cooling under clearings skies, only allowing temperatures to cool down into the upper 20s to low 30s. Factoring in the wind, however, it will feel about 10 degrees colder with wind chill values falling as low as the teens and low-20s.

For Friday, a strong pressure gradient is still expected to remain in place supported by a strong low/mid-level jet overhead much of the day. As a result, gusty winds persist with WNW winds gusting upwards of 40-50 mph once again before becoming W in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies otherwise with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

The only possibility for any precipitation during the short term will be Friday evening/overnight as a cold front crosses the area. There is a weak low and limited support which will ride along the front bringing (only) a low chance or slight chance for a few rain/snow showers overnight. Pops are only 20 to 30 pct as of now. Following the front, more drier and slightly cooler air on tap for Sat/Sun. Highs will still be close to normal though, so not bad for early March. Highs mid/upper 40s N/W and low 50s S/E. Winds won't be much of a factor Sunday, but some gusts around 20 mph possible Sat afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Once the upper trough moves off the coast late this upcoming weekend, a flatter upper air pattern arrives. High pressure that is across the Western/Central U.S. will extend towards our area bringing a period of dry weather to the area. The next chance for any showers would not be until Thursday when we have chance pops attm.

Not only will the weather be dry, but also very mild for the first half of March. High temps will mostly be in the upper 50s/low 60s Monday and then 60s with low 70s for Tue/Wed. Temps across North NJ and the southern Poconos will be 5 degrees or so less than these previously mentioned readings. Still, these highs are around 15 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will be around freezing into Monday morning, but then become milder each successive night with mostly 40s by Wed. morning.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Low VFR conditions through the evening as mid-level ceilings remain in place. Clouds will clear from southwest to northeast from about 04Z TO 07Z. West-northwesterly wind 20-25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt likely throughout the night. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. Westerly wind 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible with light rain or snow showers. West wind diminishing to 5-10 kt.

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.

MARINE

WNW winds ramping up this evening, reaching Gale-force tonight. Gusts as high as 40 kts are expected. A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal waters, including the Delaware Bay, as a result. Seas of 5 to 8 feet expected for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters.

Winds will diminish slightly through Friday morning, falling below gale-force by the afternoon. Winds turn more prevailing out of the west with gusts around 30 kts in the afternoon and seas 4 to 7 feet.

Outlook...

Friday night... Lingering SCA conditions possible across the waters, but winds and seas diminishing. Fair.

Sat thru Tuesday... sub-SCA expected. Fair weather.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and gusty conditions are likely Friday and Saturday. Minimum relative humidity values near 30 percent are expected both afternoons. On Friday, wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible with minRH values around 30-35 percent. By Saturday, winds will have diminished, but wind gusts up to 25 mph will still be possible with minRH values closer to 30 percent.

The one factor working in our favor to limit any fire spread threat is the widespread rain the area received on Wednesday. Most locations had between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106. NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. DE...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for DEZ001>004. MD...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ430-431-450>455.