textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale Watch upgraded to Gale Warning for Sunday. Portions of the Small Craft Advisory extended through Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A low pressure system will pass through the region this weekend with widespread showers and below normal temperatures.

2. Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system will pass through the region this weekend with widespread showers and below normal temperatures.

A high pressure system to the north in eastern Canada will extend down into the Northeast this weekend. As a result, winds will be out of the east-northeast through Sunday. This onshore flow will help keep temperatures on the chillier side through the weekend. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected through Sunday.

A low pressure system will continue to push the region overnight before moving offshore Sunday. This low pressure system will continue to bring rain to the area through tonight. The most widespread coverage of the rain showers looks to be this afternoon into tonight. Showers taper off Sunday morning with perhaps a lingering shower into Sunday afternoon near the coast. Our weekend is shaping up to be wet, breezy, and chilly, especially today. Rainfall totals through Sunday, will range from around 1 to 1.50 inches across much of the area with localized higher amounts. While this may be unpleasant, especially since it will be over the weekend, it is good to remember that this is a beneficial rainfall.

With cooler air wrapping in from the north tonight, it is possible some wet snow tries to mix in with the rain for the Poconos. Little to no accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of next week.

A brief period of high pressure on Monday, and some patchy frost may form in the Poconos overnight Monday night with radiational cooling and weak winds. A weak frontal boundary then approaches the region late Tuesday, bringing a chance for light rain. This frontal boundary will largely wash out across the region early Wednesday before another stronger low arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday that could bring more widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the region.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...Ceilings continue to lower to MVFR at all terminals, then to IFR especially at KABE and KRDG. An area of rain will overspread the area from west to east with VFR visibilities lowering to MVFR. East-southeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Low confidence.

Tonight...IFR ceilings, locally LIFR, along with rain. Visibilities mostly MVFR to IFR. The rain ends from west to east toward morning, however some drizzle should then occur. East to northeast winds 10- 15 knots with gusts 20-30 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...IFR, locally LIFR, ceilings due to low clouds should slowly improve to MVFR during the afternoon, then to VFR by early evening. Lingering light rain or drizzle in the morning will result in MVFR visibilities. Northeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts 20-30 knots, diminishing to 10 knots or less late. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...VFR ceilings overall. Some afternoon/evening showers possible.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions along with showers likely.

Thursday...VFR overall.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters out to 20 NM as well as the Delaware Bay through 6 AM Sunday morning due to increasing winds and seas. After 6 AM Sunday, coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ south to Fenwick Island DE, and out to 60 NM will have a Gale Warning in effect as winds increase during the daytime hours Sunday, ending at 8 PM Sunday evening. The SCA for the Delaware Bay will remain in effect through 8 PM as well. The SCA for coastal waters north of Manasquan Inlet out to 20 NM has been extended to 6 AM Monday as seas will remain elevated overnight even as winds decrease. Another, SCA will likely be needed for areas within the Gale Warning as seas remain elevated in that area as well.

In addition to SCA and Gale conditions, visibility restrictions are also expected for all marine areas in rain and fog this evening, overnight, and into Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...SCA conditions will linger through Monday with NE winds gusting near 25 kts and seas at 5-7 feet. Winds diminish below SCA criteria Monday night, but seas will remain elevated.

Tuesday through Thursday...SCA conditions possible due to elevated seas around 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ451>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ451>455- 481>483-485.