textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the rip currents section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front is continuing to pass through the region today.

2. Increasing heat and humidity return next week with unsettled weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front is continuing to pass through the region today.

A cold front is currently moving through the region. As of this afternoon, the front is located near portions of New Jersey and Delmarva. Sufficient CAPE and supportive bulk shear values have allowed convection to blossom this afternoon across portions of New Jersey and Delmarva. There is the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm with a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for Delmarva and southern New Jersey this afternoon into the early evening. The PWAT values also remain generally around 1.50-1.75" with warm cloud layer processes supporting showers and storms producing efficient rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. For areas in Delmarva and southern NJ, there is a Marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.

Behind the cold front, it looks drier into at least tomorrow. A high pressure system builds in for Saturday keeping the area dry. An upper-level disturbance moving through the region on Sunday has the potential to result in some showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity return next week with unsettled weather.

Broad upper level ridging returns to the eastern US early next week, bringing in surface high pressure across the eastern US. Afternoon highs will creep back into the upper 80s to low 90s, about 5 degrees above average for early September. Dew points will also creep back into the low 70s. One other aspect to watch with this ridging pattern is the potential for thunderstorms to rotate around the periphery of the ridge and the position of a warm front next week. The exact location, timing, and intensity of the thunderstorms remains a bit uncertain at this range. Currently, the main days to monitor are Tuesday and Wednesday regarding heavy rain and severe weather potential.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Prevailing VFR. Periods of MVFR or lower are possible in showers and storms, mainly for ACY this afternoon. Otherwise, winds out of the north at around 5 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds light and variable. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. North to northeast winds around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in showers or thunderstorms.

Monday...Prevailing VFR conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

No marine headlines expected.

Outlook...

Saturday night and through Wednesday...No marine hazards expected.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, NNE winds of 10-15 mph decrease to around 5 to 10 mph while turning E to ENE in the afternoon. There is a 1 to 2 foot east-southeasterly swell with a period of 7-8 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches.

On Sunday, S to SSW winds of 5-10 mph increase to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. A 1 foot southeasterly swell with a period of 7-8 seconds lingers. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.