textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF cycle.

Added a new key message regarding possible tidal flooding on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight period.

2. Mainly dry and comfortable weather expected for Labor Day Weekend.

3. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon's high tide, mainly for the Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities.

4. A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight period.

Another short wave moving eastward across the Appalachians this evening will continue to progress through MD/VA tonight. It will create the opportunity for more isolated to scattered showers and tstms across (mostly) southern and western parts of the CWA. We have preserved the 30%-40% pops for the evening and early overnight periods. While only the SW corner of our Delmarva areas are in Day 1 SPC outlook, strong winds gusts are possible with any tstm. The activity diminishes after midnight-2AM and skies will become partly cloudy following it. Patchy fog across rural areas that receive any rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and comfortable weather expected for Labor Day Weekend.

By Saturday, the trend among model guidance shows the frontal boundary south of our region, with Canadian high pressure building in across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will largely end any shower and thunderstorm potential, however a stray shower or two cannot entirely be ruled out. All in all, Labor Day Weekend is still shaping up to feature nice weather, with temperatures trending at or slightly below normal and comfortable humidity levels.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon's high tide, mainly for the Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities.

Flow will turn more onshore over the next few days. This will result in water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, potentially leading to minor tidal flooding across portions of our area on Sunday afternoon. The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Barnegat Bay on south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within Delaware Bay. Advisories may be needed in these spots but will wait to see how things trend over the 12 to 24 hours with the forecast.

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow turns more offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

By Tuesday, high pressure will begin to shift offshore welcoming the return of slightly above-normal temperatures and an increase in humidity levels. High pressure looks like it will still be in control through mid-week, before giving way to a cold front that will be approaching from the north and west Wednesday night into Thursday. This front will be the next best opportunity for any showers or thunderstorms around the area. As of now, PoPs are in the 20-30% range.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Continued with the PROB30 for Showers/tstms but shifted back slightly, mainly between 03Z/06Z. The northern extent of rains/tstms is somewhat uncertain but looking less likely for KABE and KTTN so removed PROB30 mentions for those two terminals. VFR following the rains except if any fog develops. Low/medium confidence.

Saturday...VFR expected. North to Northeast winds around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR expected. No significant weather expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas are generally expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions through Saturday. However, another round of storms may affect the waters this evening into the overnight bringing localized gusty winds.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected. Northeast winds may briefly get gusty on Sunday, but should remain below SCA criteria. Seas will generally range around 2-4 feet.

Wednesday...SCA conditions possible due to wind gusts around 25 kt with seas around 4-5 feet.

Rip Currents...

For Saturday, northerly winds mainly 5-10 mph with breaking waves in the surf zone less than 2 feet. Therefore, will continue with the LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

For Sunday, winds will be more out of the northeast or east-northeast and increase to 10-20 mph. This will build the seas into the coast, with breaking waves in the surf zone 2-3 feet. Opted to go with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents, however if the breaking waves increase some more then the risk could increase to moderate.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.