textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon.

2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon.

A weak disturbance across Delmarva will continue to move offshore into the evening. Scattered showers have accompanied it so far. A rumble of thunder across far south Delaware is possible however.

A low pressure system along with a negatively tilted H5 trough across the Great Lakes attm will move E-NE towards southern Canada by Sunday. An associated cold front will move across the Middle Atlantic region Sunday morning and then offshore by early afternoon. While the front will be crossing through at a time when heating will be at a minimum, we still have some good dynamics and a humid airmass in place. Accordingly, we expect showers to increase over the area later tonight and persist until FROPA on Sunday. Pops are Likely/Categorical for the Wester/Northern counties and Chance for areas South/East.

The threat for Excessive Rainfall seems to overall be rather low with ample storm motion expected to keep the soakers from stalling across one area. Most areas will see one-quarter to one-half inch of rain with a few isolated spots perhaps getting around an inch. The higher totals will likely be across the Southern Poconos and North NJ.

Severe weather remains possible and with CAPE values increasing overnight and peaking before FROPA Sunday, we could see some instances of Severe weather, Again, the favored areas will be North/Northwest where the SPC has kept the MARGINAL tag for the updated Day2 Outlook. Damaging winds are the primary threat for early Sunday.

The front passes across the area Sunday morning while the best dynamics exit to the Northeast. Rains and thunder will end from West to East during the morning and fair weather should push in for the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week.

More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...MVFR/IFR CIGs. SHRA with scattered TSRA Threat for TSRA diminishing. VSBY restrictions in BR developing as well. LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence.

Today...Conds improve to VFR by 14Z from west to east. W to SW winds increase as the morning progresses, then become W to NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time.

MARINE

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain across the waters tonight and Sunday. Seas on the ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft range thru the period. Winds will be East to Southeast mostly around 10 knots early tonight then turn South to Southwest late. Winds on Sunday will become West following the passage of a cold around around midday. Follwing the front, a few gusts around 20 kts possible. Scattered showers are expected this evening with more showers and a few TSTMS after midnight into Sunday morning. Winds and seas locally higher in TSTMs.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Showers continue Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Fair weather thereafter.

Rip Currents...

Rest of today...East to southeast winds around 10 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet and easterly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches.

On Sunday, winds shift to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, then to the west in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.