textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed any mention of storms yesterday, separated remaining message into two separate messages.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mainly fair and dry weather is expected for today through Monday.

2. Another round of showers and thunderstorms with severe weather and flooding rain potential exists with the next system Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly fair and dry weather is expected for today through Monday.

Today is shaping up to feature sunshine with both lower temperatures and lower humidity levels as a high pressure system builds in. Generally expect highs ranging from the 70s to near 80 over our northern zones over NE PA into NW NJ with low to mid 80s near the urban corridor and mid to upper 80s over portions of our eastern MD shore counties and southern Delaware. Dew points will be much lower compared to Saturday so the heat indices will be close to the actual air temperatures. High pressure remains in control for Monday with temperature and humidity levels remaining similar to Sunday. It remains mainly sunny on Monday with light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of showers and thunderstorms with severe weather and flooding rain potential exists with the next system Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tuesday, conditions turn unsettled unsettled once again as the next frontal system approaches, with increasing humidity returning ahead of it. Showers/storms become likely Tuesday into Tuesday night as the system moves through. This is still a few days out but it's worth noting that WPC and SPC are already indicating SLIGHT risks for heavy rainfall and flash flooding as well as severe storms. Highs on Tuesday are generally in the 80s with heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s from around the urban corridor extending southward. It's possible some showers and storms linger into Wednesday but the general trend should be towards improving conditions, especially by late day.

Conditions quiet down again later in the week.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 12Z this morning...Mist and/or low cigs may linger or briefly return thru the rest of the night, but otherwise VFR will be more likely than not. Winds turning NW and increasing to around 10 kts by sunrise. Moderate confidence.

Today...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Patchy mist can't be ruled out at the more rural terminals, but overall unlikely. Winds N to NW 5-10 kts, possibly becoming light/variable. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA.

Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory conditions should wane early this morning and sub-advisory conditions will prevail through Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Winds and seas likely approach SCA criteria by late day Tuesday and could linger through Wednesday night.

Thursday...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents...

For today, winds turn offshore, becoming northwesterly up to 10 MPH. A medium period swell with wave heights in the surf zone around 2 feet or less. All of this will result in a LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For Monday, winds turn back onshore, but remain around 10 MPH. Medium period swell with wave heights around 2 feet or less continuing. As a result, the rip current risk will remain LOW for Monday at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

EQUIPMENT

KDIX suffered a failure earlier this afternoon due to a lightning strike. Technicians have done some initial troubleshooting but the radar is likely to stay down until at least later today.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ450>453.