textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Upgraded to Freeze Warnings for portions of central and southern New Jersey. Frost Advisory expanded to include Talbot and inland Sussex (DE) Counties.

Cancelled remaining Coastal Flood Advisories with no more widespread tidal flooding expected.

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A couple more rounds of frost and freeze impacts are expected both tonight and Sunday night where the growing season continues.

2. Water levels are decreasing and remaining Coastal Flood Advisories have been cancelled. Spotty minor tidal flooding may linger through daytime Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple more rounds of frost and freeze impacts are expected both tonight and Sunday night where the growing season continues.

Little change in the overall synoptic pattern is expected through tonight with strong surface high pressure essentially overhead. In fact, 500 mb temperatures are a touch cooler tonight but surface dewpoints are expected to be a couple of degrees higher tonight. Overall, this should result in low temperatures pretty similar to those observed earlier this morning with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s across the region, outside of the barrier islands and coastal Delaware.

Frost Advisories were upgraded to Freeze Warnings for portions of central and southern New Jersey. Dewpoints have trended a bit lower ahead of the sea breeze in this corridor where temperatures are more prone to falling below a consensus of guidance. Skies will be more pristinely clear tonight with calm winds, unlike the scattered to broken cirrus we had in place last night, so opted to nudge temperatures down another degree or two into the low 30s. This justifies the warning upgrade for the aforementioned areas. Elsewhere, Frost Advisories remain in place for tonight where the growing season remains active (along and SE of I-95). The exception is for the barrier islands of NJ and coastal DE, which should experience lows in the 40s again. Would not be surprised to see some areas dip into the upper 20s, more notably across the Pine Barrens of South Jersey and sheltered valleys of NW NJ and the southern Poconos.

Temperatures will then begin to moderate on Sunday before another round of frost is possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows around the region will mainly be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Depending on how tonight's frost advisories pan out will determine where frost advisories may be warranted on Sunday night...more details to come in future updates.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Water levels are decreasing and remaining Coastal Flood Advisories have been cancelled. Spotty minor tidal flooding may linger through daytime Sunday.

Water levels are continuing to decrease in the back bay areas of Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, Delaware and no further widespread tidal flooding is expected. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisory for these counties has been cancelled. Spotty minor tidal flooding may linger in the back bays though over the next two high tide cycles, through daytime Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. Calm winds. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR/SKC. Calm winds in the morning, settling out of the southwest less than 5 kts after 16Z. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisories from Little Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island have been cancelled as of 2 PM. There are no longer any marine headlines in effect.

Northeast winds will generally remain around 5-10 kt today with isolated gusts up to 15 kt possible. Winds will diminish this evening and settle out of the north around 5-10 kt. Winds on Sunday will then become northeasterly around 5-10 kt. Seas around 2-4 feet through Sunday. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night... Fair weather. No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...SCA conditions possible. Northeast winds may occasionally gust up to 20-25 kt with seas building to around 5 feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...Fair weather. No marine headlines expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-102-104-106. NJ...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-016>018-023. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ012-013-015-019>022-027. DE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001>003. MD...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...None.