textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A low pressure system well to the north of the area drags a cold front through the region Thursday night through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A low pressure system well to the north of the area drags a cold front through the region tomorrow night through Friday.

A gradual warming trend continues through tomorrow as our high pressure system exits offshore and we see warm air ushered in. Highs tomorrow reach the low to mid 70s for most with the mid 60s in the Poconos.

Our next system arrives tomorrow night through Friday. A low pressure system will track northeastward out of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes vicinity through southern portions of Ontario and Quebec tomorrow night, with a trailing cold front moving through the region into Friday. Ahead of this cold front, rain showers will move into northwestern portions of the area by tomorrow evening and track southeastward across the area through Friday morning. The bulk of the showers should clear the region Friday afternoon. Model guidance does depict some elevated instability, so a rumble of thunder or two will be possible. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.30-0.60". A breezy southwest wind is expected tomorrow, shifting to northwesterly on Friday. Gusts generally 25-35 mph are likely.

Once the cold front exits the region, cold air advection through the day Friday will cause falling temperatures during the day. This will be followed by cooler conditions for this weekend. Highs will only be in the 40s on Saturday before warming back up closer to normal on Sunday. High pressure in the wake of the cold front should keep conditions dry through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...VFR. Southerly winds around 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 18 kts possible at times. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 kts. LLWS developing by 06Z, with FL020 winds increasing to near 40-45 kts. LLWS ending between 09-12Z. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR. Southwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night into Friday...Sub-VFR likely in RA and low CIGs. Improving conditions Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

No marine hazards and fair weather through tonight. South to southwest winds increasing to 15-20 kts on Thursday, with gusts up to 30 kts across the Atlantic waters. Seas building 4-6 feet.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM Friday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters through 8 AM Friday. VSBY restrictions in rain and fog Thursday night through early Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions with fair weather.

Monday...SCA conditions possible with wind gusts near 25 kt and seas near 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.