textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion. Updated key messages now that the Rip Current Statement has expired.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Periods of unsettled weather continue through mid-week as a sequence of fronts remain in close proximity to the area.

2. Drier and more seasonable conditions return by Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of unsettled weather continue through mid- week as a sequence of fronts remain in close proximity to the area.

As of early this evening, the front that's been plaguing our area with rain is more or less "washing out" as it sits near southern Delmarva. However there's still southern stream moisture moving northward from the Gulf with showers ongoing over our southernmost Delmarva zones into portions of far southern NJ. North of here though there's actually been some partial clearing at times with mainly dry weather.

For tonight, showers will continue to be primarily be focused across the Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey as the next wave of low pressure passes by. These areas could also see some fog and in fact some fog could also also affect areas farther north. Low confidence however on the fog as a competing factor will be some drier air trying to move in from the north by later tonight.

By Tuesday, the area is finally expected to see some improvement as the boundary sags to the south and PoPs are only in the 10-30% range. A few showers are possible over the Delmarva but for most areas, expecting dry conditions with some filtered sunshine. For Wednesday, another opportunity for showers and possibly a chance of thunderstorms returns as another disturbance rides along the stalled boundary. Fortunately, a cold front will be advancing in from the north, which will finally push all the unsettled weather south of the area by the end of the week.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s, with the warmest temperatures being further north where more sunshine is expected. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s and 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions and seasonable weather return by Thursday into the weekend.

After the cold front passes through the area later Wednesday, high pressure is forecast to gradually build back into the region for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Mainly sunny skies and dry weather is expected. Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than average with highs mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Tricky forecast for tonight as conditions expected to go back downhill, generally speaking, but low confidence on the details. In general though, expect lower cigs/visbys farther south. In fact for RDG and ABE, VFR should predominate through the evening before some lower cigs and visbys will be possible overnight (most likely MVFR). The I-95 TAF sites are mainly VFR as of early this evening but will likely see conditions drop to MVFR by later this evening through most of the overnight. Farther south, IFR redevelops for MIV/ACY. Winds light and variable this evening before becoming northeast later tonight. Low confidence.

Tuesday...For most sites, MVFR conditions may linger into the first part of the morning before conditions become mainly VFR. However low cigs likely to persist longer for ILG, MIV, and ACY where improvement to VFR may not occur until the afternoon. Northeast winds around 5 knots early in the day veering around to SW in the afternoon. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mostly VFR for the N/W terminals but lower CIGs and VSBYs possible with scattered showers for the Delaware Valley and south NJ terminals.

Thursday thru Sunday...Mostly VFR.

MARINE

Sub-SCA winds and seas continue om the ocean with seas mostly around 4 FT on the ocean. Little change is expected tonight or Tuesday. Winds have been light and variable so far today but will trend more North or Northeast by later tonight.

Areas of dense fog will remain across the waters tonight. In addition, showers or a TSTM will develop across the southern NJ and Delaware waters this afternoon and persist into the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through 8 pm today for a HIGH risk of the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

For Tuesday, winds will shift to the east-southeast, but will be 5 to 10 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet with a southeasterly swell around 7 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

On Wednesday, winds are more out of the southwest at 5-15 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with a south-southeast swell around 7 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents.

Ocean temperatures are mainly in the 50s to low 60s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431- 450>455-480>483-485.