textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAFS.

The Frost Advisory remains in effect for the expanded areas outside of the I-95 corridor in New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Below normal temperatures will persist through tonight. Some areas of frost and patchy fog forecast for portions of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

2. Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures will persist through tonight. Some areas of frost and patchy fog forecast for portions of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

Canadian high pressure will build into the region through tonight.

Ongoing clearing from north to south will result in clear skies tonight and allow radiational cooling to take hold. Winds should become light, favoring a northerly direction around 5 mph or less. Lows will range from the mid 30s to low 40s for most areas. Sheltered areas across the region from the valleys of northwestern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania into the outer suburbs of Philadelphia in PA and the Pine Barrens of southern New Jersey will likely see sufficient cooling for frost to develop. The Frost Advisory for tonight has been expanded to include all of these areas as a result. Patchy fog may also develop, particularly for areas northwest of I-95 where winds are more likely to be near calm for much of the night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of this week.

A brief period of high pressure on Monday, potentially lingering into Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary then approaches the region late Tuesday, bringing a chance for light rain. The chances for meaningful rainfall with this system appear to be decreasing with high pressure staying close by and the frontal boundary largely washing out across the region. Another stronger low is still expected to arrive late Wednesday into early Thursday that is expected to bring more widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the region.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR/SKC. Some local fog with visibility restrictions possible late, especially at KRDG and KABE. Northeast or north winds around 5 knots, becoming light and variable to locally calm. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Some local fog with visibility restrictions possible early especially at KABE and KRDG, otherwise VFR. Northeast winds increasing to near 10 knots, then becoming east or east-southeast in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday...VFR with increasing and lowering clouds. A few afternoon or evening showers possible.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions along with showers, especially in the afternoon and at night.

Thursday...Some showers possible. Mostly VFR. Northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday...Mainly VFR. West-northwest wind gusts 20-25 knots during the day.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 6 PM Monday for all coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ south to Fenwick Island DE, out to 20 NM. Seas will remain elevated through the period even as winds decrease.

Outlook...

Monday night...SCA conditions likely lingering with seas remaining elevated around 5-6 feet.

Tuesday through Thursday...SCA conditions possible due to elevated seas around 5 feet.

Friday...Sub-SCA conditions likely.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ054-055-062-101-103-105. NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for NJZ001-007-009-010-015-019-021-022-027. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.