textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Dense Fog Advisory was added to other Marine Flags for the southern waters and lower Delaware Bay.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A HIGH risk of rip currents and rough surf will create dangerous conditions at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches today.

2. Cold and wet conditions close out the weekend. Warmer but still unsettled on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH risk of rip currents and rough surf will create dangerous conditions at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches today.

The Rip Current Statement remains in effect until 8 pm today for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will diminish to 10 to 15 mph later today. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet will subside to 2 to 4 feet late. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 8 am for Delaware and southern New Jersey, but will extend the High Surf Advisory until 6 pm for northern New Jersey. There will be an easterly swell with a 9 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold and wet conditions close out the weekend. Warmer but still unsettled on Monday.

Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will lift to the north and east into eastern Canada. As it does, it will drag a stationary boundary over the Mid-Atlantic north as a warm front that will get through at least Delmarva and maybe extreme southern New Jersey. North of the warm front, temperatures remain quite chilly for this time of the year with highs in the 50s to low 60s, while south of the front, highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s in southern Delmarva. Rain continues across the region, though rain will not be as heavy as it was on Saturday. Additional rainfall will generally range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch. There may be enough instability for a few thunderstorms over Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey late this afternoon as that warmer air surges northward.

The warm front continues to lift north tonight, and unsettled weather continues. Shortwave energy approaching from the west will trigger a round of late night showers and possible thunderstorms, but confidence is low on placement of those showers and thunderstorms, as it will be highly dependent on how far north that warm front can get. The front passes south through the region as a cold front late Monday, triggering another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the southern half of the forecast area. Highs will be in the mid and upper 70s.

By mid to late week, a more seasonable, dry and benign weather pattern takes hold as high pressure returns to the area.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR/LIFR CIGs. Light RA and DZ this morning. SHRA will taper off late, but VSBY restrictions in BR will remain throughout the day. E to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR CIGs with MVFR VSBYs in BR. Another round of SHRA and possible TSRA after 06Z. E-NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Monday...Conds improve to MVFR in the morning, then to VFR late in the afternoon at all but KACY and possibly KMIV. Late day SHRA and TSRA likely with passage of a cold front. Light S winds in the morning, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few showers possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the southern NJ and Delaware waters as well as for the lower Delaware Bay thru the day. Nearshore cams show fog across those areas and with the milder air arriving across the chilly (mid 50s temps) waters, it seems to fit the proper conditions for fog. Low confid about extent and timing however.

E winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts will diminish from south to north as the day progresses. However, seas will remain elevated at 5 to 7 feet over Delaware ocean and southern New Jersey ocean waters and 7 to 9 feet over northern New Jersey ocean waters.

Southeast winds turn south at 10 to 15 kt tonight, but seas remain elevated, gradually subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters through tonight.

On Monday, southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas will be around 5 feet, so the SCA may have to be extended through Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

The Rip Current Statement remains in effect until 8 pm today for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will diminish to 10 to 15 mph later today. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet will subside to 2 to 4 feet late. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 8 am for Delaware and southern New Jersey, but will extend the High Surf Advisory until 6 pm for northern New Jersey. There will be an easterly swell with a 9 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents today.

On Monday, winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 4 feet. There will be an easterly swell with a 9 second period. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. However, depending on the exact direction and speed of the winds, it will not take much for the risk to be HIGH.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-452>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.