textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Special Weather Statement for southern New Jersey for patchy areas of freezing fog this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Patchy areas of freezing fog and black ice possible this morning.

2. An arctic front late Saturday night into Sunday may bring some snow to our northern areas.

3. Several waves of low pressure will impact the area over the middle of next week with some wintry precipitation possible initially.

4. A significant warm-up is expected late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy areas of freezing fog and black ice possible this morning.

Moisture from remnant snowpack in addition to weak southeasterly flow off the Atlantic has resulted in patchy areas of localized dense fog to develop, primarily southeast of I-95 in NJ. With many areas observing below freezing temperatures, this may result in areas of freezing fog as well. For this reason, have issued a Special Weather Statement for patchy freezing fog this morning.

The fog may continue to progress inland over the next several hours to encompass portions of the Delmarva, southeast PA, and northern NJ as well. Fog should dissipate by mid-late morning. Will continue to monitor the inland progression of fog over the next few hours and determine if any advisories may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An arctic front late Saturday night into Sunday may bring some snow to our northern areas.

Following the cold start and foggy weather this morning, a very mild day is in store across the area this afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s under mostly sunny skies. This warm-up will be short lived however, as an arctic front will track through the area tonight, before stalling out over the Delmarva. A wave of low pressure tracking east out of the Ohio Valley will ride along this boundary, producing areas of light rain and snow for Sunday. For areas along and north of the I-78 corridor, expect snow accumulations around C-1". There may also be a brief period of light freezing rain as well which may result in a light glaze of ice, but confidence in this is not high at this time to warrant any winter headlines. For areas south of I-78, mainly light rain is expected. Precipitation should cease by mid-late afternoon.

Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 30s and 40s with possibly some low 50s across the Delmarva before colder air advects at night. Winds will also become gusty at times in wake of the front with wind gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Several waves of low pressure will impact the area over the middle of next week with some wintry precipitation possible initially.

The center of an Arctic high will be centered over the area for the start of the new week, and temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Monday night with highs on Monday mostly in the lower 30s and lows Monday night in the teens and lower 20s. High pressure slides offshore Monday night, and then low pressure begins to organize and develop over the Midwest Monday night. A warm front extending from that low will lift north through Delmarva late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Precipitation should start out as some snow over the eastern shores of Maryland and southern Delaware, and then snow should change to a wintry mix, including freezing rain, by daybreak.

On Tuesday, as low pressure tracks east through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and towards northern New York, that warm front will lift north through the region. Warm air advection develops behind the warm front, but it will take some time for above freezing temperatures get into the far northern zones. As a result, precipitation changes to rain over Delmarva Tuesday morning, then a rain/snow mix develops over the Delaware Valley and most of New Jersey, then snow north of I-78 in the Lehigh Valley. Through Tuesday afternoon, that rain/snow line lifts north, with the wintry precipitation changing to rain by Tuesday night in the southern Poconos.

Low pressure finally departs Tuesday night, then a warm front extending from another developing area of low pressure over the Midwest lifts through the region on Wednesday, bringing another chance of rain to the area as highs will be in the 50s on Wednesday and lows will be in the 30s to low 40s Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A significant warm-up is expected late next week.

Bermuda high pressure sets up off the Southeast U.S. Coast by the end of the week, and return flow sets up over the area with rising heights and strong warm air advection to close out next week. A much welcome respite from the Arctic air that has pummeled the region for much of the start of 2026.

The Climate Prediction Center has a 70 to 80 percent probability of above normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the 01Z/28 NBM is showing a 30 to 40 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey and a 60 to 80 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for southern Delmarva.

For Friday, the 01Z/28 NBM is showing a 60 to 80 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for most of the region, and an 80 to 90 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 60 for southern Delmarva. There is even a 30 to 50 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 65 for the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey and 50 to 70 percent probability of high temperatures greater than 65 for southern Delmarva.

Normal high temperatures for the first week of March are generally in the upper 30s in the southern Poconos and otherwise in the upper 40s for most of southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the low 50s in Delmarva. As a result, there is the potential for highs some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Some weak waves of low pressure may bring some rain from time to time.

The last time the high temperature in Philadelphia was 60 degrees or higher was December 19, 2025 (61) and the last time the high temperature in Philadelphia was 65 degrees or higher was November 9, 2025 (65).

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight (thru 12Z)...VFR expected for RDG and ABE. Elsewhere, expect some low clouds and areas of dense fog to develop after 06Z around MIV and ACY before eventually moving inland to the I-95 corridor terminals around 08-10Z. Winds light and variable to calm. Low-moderate confidence overall.

Saturday...Lingering low clouds and fog expected through 13-15Z before improving to VFR by 16Z. Winds light and variable early, becoming south-southwest in the afternoon around 4-8 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Saturday night...Prevailing VFR expected early. Another round of low clouds and dense fog possible for I-95 terminals, MIV and ACY. RDG and ABE have the best chance to remain VFR throughout the night. Winds light and variable early, becoming east- northeast around 3-5 kt late. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely. A rain/snow mix possible at RDG and ABE with light rain expected elsewhere. Northwest winds may occasionally gust up to 20 kt in the afternoon.

Sunday night...VFR.

Monday through Monday night...VFR until late Monday night, then sub-VFR possible in light SN.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR in a brief period of SN Tuesday morning, then a wintry mix changing to RA late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR in RA.

MARINE

No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. Light southeast winds this morning will settle out of the southwest around 5 kt this afternoon into this evening. Overnight, winds will become northeast around 5-10 kt following a frontal passage. Seas around 2 feet.

Patchy areas of locally dense marine fog are possible early this morning, with another round of marine fog possible later tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday...No marine headlines expected. Winds up to 20 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. A chance of rain.

Sunday night...Marginal SCA conditions with winds gusting 20 to 25 kt and seas around 4 feet.

Monday through Monday night...Sub-SCA conditions.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions during the day, then marginal SCA conditions at night. VSBY restrictions in snow Tuesday morning, then rain.

Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY restrictions in rain Wednesday morning.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.