textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories for Ocean County (NJ) and Sussex County (DE) will be allowed to expire at 9 PM this evening.

Updated Rip Current Section for Wednesday and Thursday.

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine departs as high pressure builds over the area.

2. Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

3. Unsettled weather possible Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine departs as high pressure builds over the area.

The former nor'easter, now weak low pressure, over the Gulf of Maine continues to depart late tonight. High pressure centered near West Virginia will build east late tonight and into Wednesday.

Clouds over the area will gradually scatter out late tonight. With abundant low level moisture over the area and winds becoming nearly calm, patchy fog will develop during the early morning hours. Fog will lift and dissipate Wednesday morning, giving way to mostly sunny skies. Mild with slightly above normal temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

Tidal levels continue to decline and recede as offshore flow continues to allow the back bays to drain. While some of the back bays of Barnegat Bay, Rehoboth Bay, Jefferson Creek and Little Assawoman Bay may see some spotty minor tidal flooding continue through Wednesday, the bulk of the threat has now ended. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisories for Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE will allow to expire at 9 PM tonight.

Outside of these areas, a few locales may touch spotty minor with tonight's high tide cycle, otherwise, no further tidal flooding is expected elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather possible Friday through Sunday.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area late Friday into Friday night. As it moves into the area, there will be a chance of showers. However, as the vorticity impulse aloft weakens, the showers may dissipate for many areas as the move eastward. However, additional rain fall is expected to move back into the area Saturday night into Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front as it stalls to our south Saturday, then move northward across the area through Sunday. Showers will increase Saturday night into Sunday as a couple of short wave/vorticity impulses move into the area, along with the surface low pressure.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Predominantly VFR with a low chance ~30% for MVFR vis restrictions in fog after 08z. Light to calm wind. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. W-SW winds less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Occasional MVFR conditions with a chance of showers.

Saturday night through Sunday...MVFR conditions increase, possible IFR, with increasing rain chances.

MARINE

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Wednesday. Overall, a westerly flow around 10 kt, becoming south to southwest Wednesday afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Sunday...SCA conditions possible.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday...Northwest winds in the morning around 5 to 10 mph will become south in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1 to 2 feet are expected with a lingering 1 to 2 foot easterly swell around 8 to 10 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Thursday...South-southwest winds increase to around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1 to 3 feet are expected with a 2 foot easterly swell around 8 to 10 seconds. Given the increasing parallel flow along the New Jersey Coast, have opted to go with a MODERATE risk for rip currents; with a LOW risk for rip currents for the Delaware Beaches.

The surf season will conclude for the year on September 30th. No further rip current forecasts will be issued beyond September 30th until 2027.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020- 026. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003- 004. MD...None. MARINE...None.