textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted timing of Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic Coastal Waters. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Weak low pressure will cross through the area late tonight into Wednesday bringing the chance for some light showers.

2. High pressure builds into the region for the end of the work week with above normal temperatures.

3. Low pressure will bring widespread rainfall to the region this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak low pressure will cross through the area late tonight into Wednesday bringing the chance for some light showers.

Low pressure currently over the upper Midwest will dive south across the Great Lakes tonight and across the northern Mid- Atlantic on Wednesday. Some light showers may develop this evening as forcing for ascent increases ahead of a warm front, mainly to the north and west of I-95. Some light showers may continue overnight, but the greater chances for showers will occur in the morning hours on Wednesday as low pressure itself tracks through the area. Any rainfall will be rather light in nature however, as total QPF will generally range from a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth or two. Shower activity will wane through Wednesday afternoon with some breaks of sun possible late. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to upper 60s on Wednesday with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure builds into the region for the end of the work week with above normal temperatures.

A warm front lifts north through the region Wednesday night, then high pressure builds over the area on Thursday. High pressure slides offshore on Friday, and then a back door cold front slides through the region Friday afternoon.

Conditions will be dry with temperatures warming to above normal levels. Highs on Thursday will top off in the low to mid 70s throughout, though on the warmer side across interior portions of southern New Jersey and Delmarva.

High pressure slides offshore on Friday and a back door cold front will slide south through the region. A few showers may develop, but conditions will otherwise be mostly dry and cooler with highs closer to normal levels. Highs will top off in the low to mid 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure will bring widespread rainfall to the region this weekend.

Low pressure organizes and develops over the Great Lakes Friday night and dives towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Showers are likely throughout the day, providing what looks to be a beneficial rainfall with around 1/2 inch or so of rain. It will, however, be outright chilly with highs in the 40s to around 50. Most showers taper off Saturday night with lingering showers into Sunday. Highs will still only be in the 50s on Sunday.

Dry and warmer on Monday with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Cloud cover will increase to BKN, with ceilings gradually lowering. There is a slight chance of showers, primarily for RDG, ABE, and the I-95 terminals after 03-05Z. South- southeast winds around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...A period of MVFR ceilings is expected between 15-19Z. Isolated to scattered showers may occur through the morning and end from northwest to southeast between 15-18Z. Skies should begin to scatter out to VFR thereafter. South- southeast winds will become north- northwest around 5-10 kt from northwest to southeast between 17-21Z. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR.

Friday...VFR. Cannot rule out a few light SHRA with minimal restrictions.

Friday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR in SHRA. Improving conds on Sunday.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Delaware Bay from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island from 2 AM to 11 AM Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Sandy Hook to Great Egg Inlet from 2 AM to 1 PM Wednesday.

South-southeast winds around 10-15 kt will increase tonight to around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Wind will gradually diminish through Wednesday morning and become southwest around 10-15 kt by Wednesday afternoon. Seas around 3-5 feet. A chance for rain showers late tonight through Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions.

Friday night through Sunday...SCA conditions develop on Saturday and persist through the weekend. VSBY restrictions in showers Saturday through early Sunday with improving VSBYs on Sunday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ453>455.