textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Section for 06Z TAFs. Removed Key Message 3.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Above normal temperatures and increasing chances of showers for the end of the week.

2. Unsettled conditions are expected for the later part of the weekend. Chances for rain on Sunday have increased.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increasing chances of showers for the end of the week.

High pressure offshore will continue to pump milder and increasingly more humid air across the area through Friday. High temps will be much above normal on Friday. Dry conditions should prevail through mid-day Friday.

This will change Friday afternoon as a cold front will pass across the region late Friday and Friday night and will settle over Delmarva on Saturday. Scattered showers will develop Friday afternoon, mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor, then scattered showers spread east Friday night. The showers taper off in most areas by Saturday morning, but across southern Delaware and south NJ, we'll keep some clouds and scattered showers for Saturday as the front becomes nearly stationary over the Mid-Atlantic. Overall, QPF will be less than 1/10 inch but a few areas closer to 2/10ths of an inch possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions are expected for the later part of the weekend. Chances for rain on Sunday have increased. Cooler and drier into early next week.

High pressure then builds into the region from the north on Saturday. Mostly sunny skies for most of the area and partly to mostly cloudy skies across Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey with seasonable, but slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

After that, low pressure develops on that stalled front and passes cross the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday and Sunday night. The overnight models continue the previous trend of bringing higher POPs further north for Sunday. The present fcst now has low-end likely POPS for southern Delaware and the 50% chance line runs along the Delaware valley and up into Monmouth County. Low chance pops are included now for the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley

High pressure and a much cooler air mass then builds into the region starting Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday are only near 60 degrees for much of the region, which is upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Some patchy frost is possible by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Forecast lows are in the mid 30s north of I-78, and in the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR with SCT-BKN high clouds. South-southwest winds around 5 kt. High confidence.

Friday...VFR with increasing clouds, especially during the afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop in the afternoon along a cold front, mainly around/after 19Z for RDG/ABE, around/after 21Z for I-95 terminals, and around/after 22Z for MIV/ACY. Occasional MVFR CIGs and VSBYS are possible, but confidence in occurrence at this time is low, so have left out of all TAFs for now; have included VCSH, however. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Outlook...

Friday night...Lingering showers in the evening with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible. Winds shifting to NW following a FROPA.

Saturday...Mostly VFR but some morning MVFR and showers possible for south NJ and Delaware.

Sunday...Widespread MVFR with IFR possible S/E with frequent showers Delmarva and south NJ. For N/W areas more VFR CIGS with some MVFR in scattered showers.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR expected.

MARINE

No marine headlines are in effect through Friday night. South- southwest winds around 15-20 kt are expected to continue through Friday, although a few gusts up to 22-23 kt cannot be ruled out. Winds will then turn northwest behind a cold front early Friday evening. Seas around 3-4 feet. Showers possible on all marine waters late Friday into Friday night.

Outlook...

Generally sub-SCA thru the weekend and into next week. Two periods where conditions may approach SCA are Saturday morning when some gusts 20 to 25 kts are expected.Also, Monday night may see increasing seas 4-5 ft as NW winds develop across the waters.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.