textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

Coastal Flood Advisory has expired and no further tidal flooding headlines should be needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected through Labor Day. The exception will be near coastal New Jersey and Delaware where some showers are possible today.

2. Coastal Flood Advisory has expired. Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal flooding on Monday early evening but no further headlines expected. Tide levels should decrease as we get into this week.

3. A cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected through Labor Day. The exception will be near coastal New Jersey and Delaware where some showers are possible today.

A drier and cooler airmass has arrived across the northern Middle Atlantic region as high pressure to the northwest begins influencing our weather to a greater degree. Low pressure aloft across the North Atlantic continues to bring northwest flow aloft over our area. A couple embedded shortwaves in this flow will pass across New England today. This will result in some isolated to scattered showers near the New Jersey and Delaware coasts through the afternoon. Pops are generally in the 15-30% range, so no significant impacts are expected. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Similar temperatures will follow for Labor Day with more sun than clouds and dry weather.

2. Coastal Flood Advisory has expired. Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal flooding on Monday early evening but no further headlines expected. Tide levels should decrease as we get into this week.

After a round of minor tidal flooding, water levels have decreased as we get away from high tide. Some spotty minor tidal flooding may come tomorrow afternoon, but not expecting the need for further headlines as tide levels should be lower. Flow turns more offshore for most of this week, allowing back bays to drain. No further headlines are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms.

Mid-level ridging will be in place across central and northeastern portions of the US through Tuesday, with high pressure also in control at the surface. The result will be tranquil conditions. Starting on Wednesday, ridging aloft is expected to begin to break down as an upper-low tracks eastward from portions of Ontario into portions of Quebec. Current guidance has height falls beginning across the area on Wednesday, with a strong shortwave pivoting through the region on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore Wednesday, with a cold front moving through sometime on Thursday.

Wednesday into Thursday, as the high moves offshore, a warm and moist southerly flow develops across the area, with highs warming into the mid-upper 80s for many, and dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 60s or low 70s for Delmarva and south NJ.

It is not entirely out of the question that as the ridge begins to break down some shower and storm chances could ultimately evolve across portions of the area Wednesday night. We currently feature PoPs generally in the 20-40% range for this time period across the Southern Poconos and northern NJ. Slightly better shower and storm chances are likely to exist across the area on Thursday when the actual cold front moves through the region. At this point, PoPs Thursday are also generally in the 30-50% range, but would not be surprised if they trend up some in the coming days. Currently, the threat for severe storms or flash flooding concerns appears low.

Following the system, a period of fair weather and seasonable temperatures will be across the area Friday and next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds at RDG/ABE/ILG at 5-10 kts this evening, and east for TTN/PNE/PHL/MIV/ACY where a sea breeze has made its way inland. By 02-04Z winds are expected to become light and variable at all terminals, favoring an east-northeast direction. High confidence.

Monday...VFR. Light winds in the morning will settle out of the northwest around 5-10 kts in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night thru Wednesday... VFR expected.

Wednesday night thru Thursday night...Lower CIGS/VSBYs possible with scattered showers or a few tstms.

Friday...VFR expected.

MARINE

No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East-northeast winds around 8-13 kt today will become north-northeast around 5-10 kt tonight. Northeast winds will increase briefly on Monday morning around 10-15 kt before settling out of the southeast around 5-10 kt for Monday afternoon. Seas of 2-3 feet. Aside for a few isolated showers today, fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Monday night thru Wednesday... Winds and seas remain below SCA levels. Winds do increase thru the day Wednesday however. Fair thru the period.

Wednesday night thru Thursday night... Low-end SCA probable with winds gusting 25 to 30 kts and seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.

Rip Currents...

For Labor Day, light easterly flow with winds 10 MPH or less and breaking waves 2 feet or less will result in a LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches even with a 9 to 10 second period.

For Tuesday, winds turn more offshore but still light. Breaking waves again will be around 1 to 2 feet with another 8 to 9 second period swell. This will also result in a LOW risk for rip currents at all shore points.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.