textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Rip Current Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Quiet through Thursday with high pressure in control.

2. Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times late this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through. However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1....Quiet through Thursday with high pressure in control.

High pressure centered west of the area this afternoon will build into the region through tonight and remain centered nearby through Tuesday. This will bring mainly clear skies and tranquil weather through Tuesday and beyond.

For tonight, the combination of diminishing winds and a mainly clear sky will result in lows getting down into the 50s for most with even some 40s possible over portions of our northeast PA zones into NW NJ. A sunny day will follow for Tuesday with light east winds as the high starts to move offshore. Expect highs mainly in the middle to upper 70s with 60s to low 70s over the Poconos into NW NJ. Humidity levels will remain comfortable.

By Wednesday, temperatures climb into above normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s. This stretch of above normal temperatures should continue until Friday with increasing levels of humidity through the period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times late this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through. However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

A cold front still looks to move southward through the area Thursday night into Friday and this could result in a few showers. However, guidance has backed off on coverage of showers and now the end of the week looks to overall remain mainly quiet for most.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the aformentioned front may try to push back northward as a warm front by late Saturday followed by another cold front Sunday as low pressure moves by north of the area. This will bring additional chances for showers and perhaps a few storms with the highest probability for precipitation looking to be overnight Saturday night and Sunday. At this point confidence is low regarding any potential impacts but details will come into focus over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR NNW winds diminishing around sunset with winds shifting to northeast overnight at around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. East/southeast winds around 4 to 8 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday night through Saturday...Primarily VFR though a few showers possible (15-20%) at times.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions expected. Northerly winds around 15 gusting up to 20 knots this afternoon with winds shifting to northeast later this evening into the overnight and remaining at similar speeds. For Tuesday, northeast winds diminish early in the day to around 10 knots. Seas generally around 2-4 feet through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...no Marine headlines expected through this period.

Rip Currents...

Tuesday...East-northeast winds around 10 mph with breaking wave heights of 1 to 3 feet. An underlying 2 to 3 foot northeast swell will continue around 5 to 6 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

Wednesday...Light and variable winds in the morning, will settle out of the south-southeast in the afternoon around 5 to 10 mph. Breaking wave heights will range between 1 to 3 feet. A 1 foot southeast swell will propagate toward the region in the afternoon around 7 to 8 seconds in length. Given these conditions, have opted to go with a LOW risk for rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.