textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section with the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through at least the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through at least the beginning of next week.

A dry cold front will move through the region and offshore by mid to late morning. High pressure will then return through the middle of next week with continuing mild and dry conditions expected.

Conditions will turn a bit breezy in the wake of this morning's cold frontal passage. Northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts near 25 mph can be expected. Temperatures will remain quite mild into this afternoon though, as downsloping winds will allow for adiabatic warming and drying out of the airmass. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s north of I-78 to the low to mid 70s for most other areas south of there.

Conditions will turn cooler again for the weekend. Lows tonight through Sunday night will be mainly in the low 30s to mid 40s. Widespread frost currently appears unlikely where the growing season continues, although we could see some frost development in the remaining PA and NJ counties. Highs will be coolest on Halloween, in the upper 50s to low 60s, under partly cloudy skies. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday, but a bit milder with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Scattered to broken cloud cover will persist into early next week despite surface high pressure. Temperatures are expected to increase back to above normal values early next week, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and mild overnights. We cannot totally rule out a few showers midweek, but the next period to keep an eye on for widespread rainfall looks to be toward the end of next week (Thursday into Friday), when guidance suggests a more prolific system may impact the region.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. West to southwest winds shifting northwest by 14-15Z with a cold frontal passage and increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. NNW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE

Northwest winds will increase to 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front moving offshore this morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts developing by late afternoon and evening. While the greatest likelihood of of 25-30 kt gusts is still across the northern New Jersey coast, there is increasing potential for gusts near 25 kts farther south for a few hours on either side of sunset as surface temperatures cool and allow for better mixing. Seas will also increase to around 3-5 feet.

The Small Craft Advisory was expanded to include all Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay, which is in effect from 2 PM today through 2 AM Saturday.

Northerly winds and seas will then lessen overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...No marine hazards expected. Fair weather.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.