textproduct: Philadelphia/Mt Holly

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for flooding has diminished tonight.

The Aviation section was updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Heavy rainfall is tapering off and the threat for flooding is diminished.

2. Hot and humid conditions into early next week. Heat Advisory issue for portions of the area for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy rainfall is tapering off and the threat for flooding is diminished.

The warm front is now north of Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and will continue to lift north tonight through Thursday morning. Most of the heavy rain has tapered off, but there are still a few showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, that will impact the area through midnight or so. Brief, locally heavy rain will continue to be possible, though the threat for flooding has diminished.

Otherwise, quite warm and humid tonight with fog developing across the region. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s, and dew points will be right around that as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions into early next week. Heat Advisory issue for portions of the area for Thursday and Friday.

Once the warm front lifts north of the area, our area will be under the influence of high pressure located offshore of the Atlantic seaboard, which will lead to well established return flow. This will keep hot and humid conditions in place for the next several days. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all areas who's criteria is heat index values of 100-104 degrees. This includes portions of eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey except the far southern counties, as well as New Castle Delware. The Heat Advisory will run from 10 am Thursday and continue through 8 pm Friday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR initially, then MVFR/IFR conds develop as the night progresses. A few SHRA may impact KRDG/KABE. LGT/VRB winds. Low confidence overall.

Thursday...MVFR conds initially, then VFR. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA may impact KRDG/KABE, then KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG. SW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, then 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Moderate confidence overall.

Thursday night...Any SHRA/TSRA taper off in the evening. Generally VFR, though patchy fog possible. S winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Periods of sub VFR possible in afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA generally Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Tonight-Thursday...Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...Overall, winds and seas should be below SCA criteria however in the afternoon both Friday and Saturday, anticipated isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms which could briefly increase winds and seas.

Rip Currents...

For Thursday, south to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves in the surf zone of 1 to 3 feet. There will be a light easterly swell with a period around 10 seconds. Opted to go with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches.

Conditions will be fairly similar on Friday, and as such, kept a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-017>020-027. DE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None.