textproduct: Pendleton
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LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday
Models show there to be some lingering instability and mid-level moisture Wednesday. Model derived sounding show CAPE values ranging between 100-150 J/kg, mid-level moisture of 8-9 C/km and LIs of -1. These will be weaker storms and will likely need a bit of orographic lift to initiate. With that said, we cannot rule out the possibility of lightning and ensembles do so around 20% probabilities.
Wednesday and Thursday will also be the 'cooler' days during the period with ensembles showing temperatures dipping nearly 10 degrees from the cold front passage. NBM shows temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s in the Basin and foothills of the BLues, mid to upper 80s in central/north central OR and low 80s in the Gorge with 80-90% probabilities. Thursday will another 5 degrees cooler across much of the region with 80-90% probabilities of the majority of the region seeing mid to upper 80s. After Thursday, a weak upper level ridge will move over the region again bring hot and dry conditions back to the region.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Mostly sunny with high clouds scattered across some of the TAF sites. Winds are mainly light and variable across the region with only DLS seeing winds nearing 10kts. Bennese/90
FIRE WEATHER
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for dry thunderstorms Tuesday between 2 PM and 11 PM. An incoming dry cold front will bring in increasing instability over the southern and eastern region of the areas elevating the fire weather conditions. Also, with the dry cold front, an increase in winds will accompany the passage and with the already dry conditions and poor daytime RHs, Wednesday will be another day to continue to monitor.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 59 98 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 63 96 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 58 98 64 104 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 61 96 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 59 99 64 104 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 59 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 49 96 55 96 / 0 0 0 10 LGD 55 93 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 55 95 60 99 / 0 0 0 20 DLS 63 98 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for ORZ700-705.
WA...None.
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