textproduct: Pendleton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Minimal precipitation Impacts
- Mountain thunderstorm risk on Saturday
- Midweek warming
DISCUSSION
Zonal westerly mid level flow across the PAC NW will break down into a low amplitude trough by the overnight as a shortwave over the gulf of Alaska swings rapidly southeast Today. This will cause light winds this morning to steadily increase into the afternoon becoming westerly at around 15 to 20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph across the Basin and central Oregon and even to around 40 to 50 mph across the Simcoe Highlands. Afternoon temperatures will range from only 30s and 40s in the mountain zones, 50s across the Blue Mountain foothills and as warm as 70 degrees in the John Day Basin This Afternoon.
Mountains zone thunderstorms can develop due to the cold air aloft moving in and destabilizing the column in combination with westerly flow/orographic lift. HREF members show 10-50% chances for thunderstorms/lightning ramping up around noon on Saturday and lingering through the day.
The low amplitude trough will transition to northwest flow early next week creating a subsident setup for broad subsidence and light westerly winds, increasing temperatures and dry conditions through the balance of the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Light wind this morning will be increasing by late morning into the afternoon to 15 to 20 knots and gusting to around 25 and 30 knots. Increasing clouds are anticipated to remain above 5,000 ft for the entire forecast period.
FIRE WEATHER
Overall fire weather risk due to combined low RH and strong winds is limited over the next 7 days. Dry lightning remains a risk on Saturday over the mountains region as the advection of colder air aloft increases instability.
HYDROLOGY
The Naches river will be falling below the action stage of 16 feet later this morning.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
PDT 63 40 59 38 / 0 10 20 30 ALW 63 43 59 40 / 0 20 60 60 PSC 67 41 65 38 / 0 10 20 10 YKM 64 38 63 38 / 0 10 10 0 HRI 65 40 63 37 / 0 10 10 10 ELN 56 32 55 34 / 20 30 10 0 RDM 65 32 53 26 / 0 10 10 10 LGD 63 38 52 34 / 0 30 70 60 GCD 66 36 53 32 / 0 10 30 60 DLS 64 43 61 41 / 0 70 30 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None. OR...None.
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