textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist through the weekend and beginning of the week

2. Pattern shift mid-week could bring precipitation

DISCUSSION

Current satellite shows mostly clear skies with smoke lingering in some areas around the wildfires. Smoke will continue to linger through the period but with the increased winds, will not settle to heavily at the surface.

Dry and warm conditions will persist through the week as westerly flow aloft continues over the region. Westerly flow will continue through the weekend and beginning of next week with temperatures becoming slightly cooler. In house calculations shows much of the region to still be above seasonal average at 5 to 10 for today steadily decreasing to near 5 degrees above normal by Monday. As the temperatures begin to decrease, relative humidity will begin to increase. This will bring the area out of critical fire weather conditions but will still remain elevated. Winds are expected to remain 10 to 15 mph and gusting between 25 to 35 mph through at least Tuesday with 70-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. .

Models are coming into slight agreement with a pattern change by mid- week. Models are showing an upper level trough making its way into the region with a Four Corners High set up to the south. This has the potential to bring in some monsoonal moisture as well as some instability. NBM model shows there to be chances (20-30%) for some isolated showers across central OR and the eastern mountains. There is also chances of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. However, with this being day six, confidence is rather low and we will continue to monitor a the event draws near.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions currently across most sites, with KYKM being the only terminal experiencing MVFR conditions due to reduced visibility of 3-4SM related to smoke from the nearby wildfires. Breezy winds of 10-15kts with gusts of 15-25kts for KDLS/KRDM/KBDN/KYKM, decreasing later this evening. 75

FIRE WEATHER

The region will remain with elevated fire weather through the period as there is some breezy with areas of low relative humidity. This pattern will persist through mid-week before giving way to an upper level trough that will bring breezier conditions as well as the potential for mid level moisture and instability.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 89 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 91 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 93 59 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 88 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 90 45 88 45 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 92 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 93 52 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 90 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511.