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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Red Flag Warnings in effect through 9PM this evening for Kittitas and Yakima Valley & Central Mountains of Oregon.
- Breezy winds Today and during the weekend.
- Warming trend continues.
DISCUSSION
The region will undergo a mid level synoptic transition as the shortwave energy over NE WA slides further inland ahead of a developing broader and weaker geopotential height field for Thursday and Friday. Models show a compact low sliding down the British Columbia coast by Friday evening that will enhance winds across the Interior NW on Saturday, track in to the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces on Sunday leading to a return to hotter temperatures and HeatRisk levels increasing Monday and Tuesday of next week.
HeatRisk is forecast to increase to a level 2 (orange) across the lowest elevations of the Columbia Basin and River Gorge zones Monday and expand on Tuesday affecting the Yakima/Kittitas valley and more of the John Day Basin. This period of increased heat early next week will also bring about a period of convective monitoring across the Blue Mountain zone which would be a dry lightning risk. Zones. Probability of thunder is not high, but around 5% for those eastern mountain zones Tuesday evening.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions accompanied by diurnally and terrain-driven winds are forecast for the next 24 hours. FEW-BKN mid/high cloud is anticipated to overspread the region from south to north overnight through Thursday.
FIRE WEATHER
Red Flag Warnings remain in place for the balance of Today through 11 PM This Evening. 70-80% Risk threshold for gusts above 20 mph and and relative humidity below 25% create critical fire weather conditions for the WA690 zone. Farther south the OR700 zone will not be as windy, however critical thresholds for RH are being met much lower and 15% or less.
Very low chances for isolated (less than 10%) lightning / dry thunderstorms over the OR700, Mountains of Central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands zones Friday afternoon and evening.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
PDT 50 86 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 87 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 54 90 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 53 89 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 53 89 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 50 86 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 87 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 47 86 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 46 89 50 94 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 56 90 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690. OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ700.
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