textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week.

- Breezy to windy conditions develop Monday with a Wind Advisory in effect.

- Conditions trend drier towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Current satellite and radar depict dry conditions with some high level clouds moving in the Cascade region. Conditions remain dry with light and variable winds through the remainder of the night. While local radar shows no precipitation, radars out of PDX and SEA are picking up a line of precipitation out in the Pacific that's associated with the approaching cold front. GFS and Euro deterministic models advertise a trough in the same area that will propagate to the east. Conditions through today will succumb to the approaching weather system, introducing widespread precipitation with breezy to windy conditions developing. Strong wind gusts above wind criteria is expected to develop from Central Oregon through the Simcoe Highlands Monday morning through the later evening hours.

Going through Monday, the heaviest precipitation is expected to occur in the late afternoon to early evening hours (70 to 90 percent chance). The greatest chance of thunderstorm chances will occur between 3 to 7 pm with the greatest heat present. Most likely place to see thunderstorm development will be along the Northern Blue Mountains, Foothills of the Blues, and the Wallowa's. Paintballs on HREF for >40 dBZ & MUCAPE >50 J/kg develop across the Foothills at around 3 PM through 11 PM. Although we expect convection chances to quickly deteriorate after sunset.

The cold frontal system will bring up to 0.25" to 0.50" across the Blue Mountains (60-80% chance) with the lower elevations anticipated to see up to a tenth of an inch (60-80% chance) through today. Aloft, the trough will move south of the region and a short-live ridge will develop over the region, though the influence of the trough will still largely influence the southern part of the CWA, that chances of light to moderate showers will continue through the next several days. Widespread precipitation with an embedded cold front will once again push through the region Thursday, bringing increased chances of light to moderate showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances (according to the NBM) advertise to be more widespread and greater than today. Chances of a storm producing increase 20 to 30 percent across the region. Will need to monitor for trends in wind and thunderstorm chances as we head closer to this event. Prior to the cold front passage on Thursday, high temperatures will reach in the 80s to low 90s (50-70% chance), bringing minor HeatRisk with a value of "1" area wide, effecting the most susceptible parts of the population that are sensitive to heat risks.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are predicted through the next 24-hours. A weather system will enter the area later today that will bring breezy to windy conditions with some light to moderate showers at most TAF sites. Winds will peak at 20-35 knots that will occur in the afternoon hours, as well as increase chances of showers in the later afternoon hours. There's a small chance (5 to 15 percent chance) that some moderate developing showers will temporary bring sub-VFR conditions at TAF sites.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 82 43 62 45 / 0 80 30 50 ALW 84 47 62 48 / 0 60 30 50 PSC 86 45 68 46 / 0 60 0 20 YKM 78 44 69 47 / 0 20 0 10 HRI 83 44 66 46 / 10 70 10 30 ELN 73 40 62 43 / 0 30 10 10 RDM 80 34 59 35 / 0 20 30 30 LGD 86 41 55 42 / 10 60 70 80 GCD 87 39 56 38 / 0 80 70 70 DLS 76 46 69 49 / 0 20 10 20

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ027-521. OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ510-511.