textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist through the weekend and beginning of the week

2. Pattern shift mid-week could bring precipitation

DISCUSSION

Current satellite shows mostly clear skies with smoke lingering in some areas around the wildfires. Smoke will continue to linger through the period but with the increased winds, will not settle to heavily at the surface.

Dry and warm conditions will persist through the week as westerly flow aloft continues over the region. Westerly flow will continue through the weekend and beginning of next week with temperatures becoming slightly cooler. In house calculations shows much of the region to still be above seasonal average at 5 to 10 for today steadily decreasing to near 5 degrees above normal by Monday. As the temperatures begin to decrease, relative humidity will begin to increase. This will bring the area out of critical fire weather conditions but will still remain elevated. Winds are expected to remain 10 to 15 mph and gusting between 25 to 35 mph through at least Tuesday with 70-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. .

Models are coming into slight agreement with a pattern change by mid- week. Models are showing an upper level trough making its way into the region with a Four Corners High set up to the south. This has the potential to bring in some monsoonal moisture as well as some instability. NBM model shows there to be chances (20-30%) for some isolated showers across central OR and the eastern mountains. There is also chances of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. However, with this being day six, confidence is rather low and we will continue to monitor a the event draws near.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Breezy afternoon winds anticipated for most sites with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts of 18-25kts. Winds will subside this evening, with KDLS staying breezy through the overnight period. KALW/KPSC should experience light winds at or below 10kts through the period. Periods of smoke may impact KALW/KPDT this morning before improving this afternoon, with KPSC briefly impacted between 9PM-midnight. Sub-VFR conditions are not anticipated from smoke as it should stay aloft. 75

FIRE WEATHER

The region will remain with elevated fire weather through the period as there is some breezy with areas of low relative humidity. This pattern will persist through mid-week before giving way to an upper level trough that will bring breezier conditions as well as the potential for mid level moisture and instability.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 55 88 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 61 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 59 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 56 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 88 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 53 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 52 90 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 60 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511.