textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue through the overnight hours with isolated freezing temperatures in the lower elevation areas.

- Pattern shifts through the week with periods of shower activity across the region.

- Cooler pattern develops through the week (50-70% chance) with high temperatures dropping down the low 50s in the lower elevated areas (50-70% chance).

DISCUSSION

Satellite advertises a low pressure system off the coast of the PacNW, bringing moderate to heavy showers west of the Cascades. Spillover is currently bringing some light returns on radar in the Cascades and we will see the line of showers continue to move east over the next 24 to 48 hours. Guidance is in good agreement the low pressure system to continue pushing to the east, bringing PoP's up to 20-40% across the Cascades and eastern slopes of the Cascades (including Central Oregon) through today. As the system moves along, it will bring the greatest chance of precip in the short term for the entire region (20-50% PoPs) Monday. NBM advertises the heaviest rains along the Eastern Mountains and parts of the Northern Blues where it's advertising wetting rains (>.1") through Tuesday morning (70-80% chance).

Synoptic ensembles paint a story that shows another shortwave dropping down from British Colombia through the mid-week that will bring another round of wet precipitation. Guidance is somewhat evenly split with impacts with the agreement on strength and location of the trough. Clusters through Thursday night advertise 48% of members showing a stronger/wetter pattern that mostly consist of the Euro and Canadian models, while the GFS solutions brings a drier solution to the table. Guidance becomes even more split by Saturday night with almost exactly 50% of members showing either an open wave/dry set-up or a more closed-off low with a wetter solution. Still plenty of time to monitor the set-up, but for now not seeing any immediate impacts to the area at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions currently prevail through the period. Precipitation develops with PROB30's for RDM/BDN/YKM/DLS over the next 24-hours. MVFR probability is low (5-15% chance). Winds will be mainly VRB06 across most TAF sites with BDN/RDM seeing slightly higher speeds but remaining under 10 kts. Potential for VSBY to decrease to 6SM within the showers is 30%.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 61 33 53 37 / 0 0 20 40 ALW 62 39 53 42 / 0 0 30 60 PSC 58 33 56 39 / 0 10 20 10 YKM 57 36 56 35 / 10 20 20 10 HRI 59 33 55 40 / 0 10 20 20 ELN 53 30 53 31 / 10 30 40 20 RDM 64 28 47 32 / 0 40 60 20 LGD 61 39 55 36 / 0 0 80 70 GCD 64 35 50 34 / 0 0 70 40 DLS 59 39 58 42 / 10 40 60 30

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.