textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday.

- Slight drier conditions tomorrow.

- Drier conditions towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Radar shows light to moderate showers continuing to pour out in the Wallowas, which is expected to continue through the rest of the overnight hours. The associated trough that brought unsettled weather will continue to push south, leaving the low pressure system to bring wrap-around that will mostly effect the southern portions of the CWA (that include Central Oregon through the John Day Highlands) through tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Wednesday will become mostly clearer and drier thanks to a building ridge across the PacNW, which will allow day time heating to build-up over the next two days. High temperatures will build up to the mid 80s to low 90s by Thursday (70-80% chance). HeatRisk with a value of "1" (effecting the most sensitive to heat risks) will cover a large portion of the region on Wednesday and increase to "2" in parts of the Washington Basin on Thursday. Later on Thursday, the precluded daytime heating build-up with some lifting mechanism from a shortwave will bring potential thunderstorm threats across the region. Modeled Skew-T's show the potential for values of 1000 J/kg+ of CAPE to develop. Thunderstorm strength potential will be limited with a cap preventing storms for taking potential of the full energy. If the cap is broken, then storms could strengthen further. Will need to keep an eye on trends as far as short term models suggest.

Heading towards the weekend, clusters generally agree that we will head towards a drier pattern with light to moderate precip at times but generally less so than today and the next few days will be.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Light showers have moved east of all terminals, but will return to KPDT/KRDM/KBDN/KALW/KPSC by late afternoon. Breezy 15-25kt winds this afternoon for KDLS/KRDM/KBDN, with 4-6kft ceilings lifting early Wednesday morning. 75

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 61 45 79 51 / 20 40 0 0 ALW 63 49 81 57 / 20 30 0 10 PSC 69 47 86 55 / 10 20 0 0 YKM 71 49 88 57 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 66 46 83 54 / 10 30 0 0 ELN 65 47 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 59 38 77 44 / 20 70 10 40 LGD 55 45 79 49 / 50 60 20 20 GCD 53 39 79 45 / 90 80 30 50 DLS 70 52 86 59 / 10 10 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.