textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming and drying trend continues through next week.

- Heat Risks increasing by early to mid next-week.

- Breezy to windy conditions, along with dry conditions, will elevate fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

An upper level ridge currently offshore is responsible for our clear, warm, and dry conditions over the area. This trend will continue through at least early next-week as the ridge continues to amplify over the weekend and move onshore. At the same time, a broad area trough in the Northern Great Plains with an embedded shortwave will move through the area, bringing breezy conditions over the weekend with gusts up to 15-25 mph (50-70% chance). Dry air with minimum relative humidities will stay in the teens and upper 20s before they spread through much of the lower elevations. Elevated fire level concerns will be isolated over the weekend with the greatest potential for RFW criteria through the mid-week (more details below in the fire weather section).

The warming trend will continue through at least Monday (70-90% chance) with highs in the mid to upper 90s in most of the lower elevation spots. NBM currently advertises 60-90% chances that parts of The Dalles through the Columbia Basin & the Yakima Valley will see temperatures exceeding 95 degrees Monday. Major Heat Risk values (2.5+) has expanded into parts of The Dalles, Yakima Valley, and Central Oregon on Monday with minor Heat Risk (value of '2') across the rest of the elevated areas. Tuesday has seen a downtrend in the aerial coverage of values of '2', though it is noted that parts of Central Oregon are now in a Major Heat Risk. Regardless, warm temperatures will pose a threat to at least the most sensitive groups.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Sunny sky Today with minimal high level clouds and VFR conditions at all terminals through the entirety of the TAF. Winds will see increases in gusts as mixing maximizes across the Columbia Basin and Foothills of the Blues, bringing uptick in gusts to 20 to 25 knots (DLS/PDT/PSC/ALW). Gust are forecast to increase as well out of the north at BND and RDM after 23z to the 20 to 25 knot range.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns increase going into early next-week with dry air in the region. RH's in the teens to 20s will prevail through at least early next week (>85% chance) with breezy to locally windy conditions developing Tuesday. Main areas of concerns will be the Columbia Basin (WA/OR691) and Central Oregon (OR700, OR704, and OR705). With that, a Fire Weather Watch may be issued over the next 24-48 hours (60-80% confidence level). While dry air continues through the weekend, winds will not be as strong as Tuesday, but pockets of breezy winds will develop, allowing isolated areas reaching RFW criteria.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 84 50 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 85 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 88 56 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 87 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 87 54 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 83 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 84 47 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 81 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 83 45 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 90 61 93 65 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.