textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist through the weekend and beginning of the week

2. Pattern shift mid-week could bring precipitation

DISCUSSION

Current satellite shows mostly clear skies with smoke lingering in some areas around the wildfires. Smoke will continue to linger through the period but with the increased winds, will not settle to heavily at the surface.

Dry and warm conditions will persist through the week as westerly flow aloft continues over the region. Westerly flow will continue through the weekend and beginning of next week with temperatures becoming slightly cooler. In house calculations shows much of the region to still be above seasonal average at 5 to 10 for today steadily decreasing to near 5 degrees above normal by Monday. As the temperatures begin to decrease, relative humidity will begin to increase. This will bring the area out of critical fire weather conditions but will still remain elevated. Winds are expected to remain 10 to 15 mph and gusting between 25 to 35 mph through at least Tuesday with 70-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. .

Models are coming into slight agreement with a pattern change by mid- week. Models are showing an upper level trough making its way into the region with a Four Corners High set up to the south. This has the potential to bring in some monsoonal moisture as well as some instability. NBM model shows there to be chances (20-30%) for some isolated showers across central OR and the eastern mountains. There is also chances of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. However, with this being day six, confidence is rather low and we will continue to monitor a the event draws near.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. MVFR vsby from area smoke is currently impacting site RDM at this time, but is not expected to last past 08Z. Winds will mostly be light through the period, except at site DLS where breezy winds will redevelop after 17Z and site PDT after 18Z. Lawhorn/82

FIRE WEATHER

The region will remain with elevated fire weather through the period as there is some breezy with areas of low relative humidity. This pattern will persist through mid-week before giving way to an upper level trough that will bring breezier conditions as well as the potential for mid level moisture and instability.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 55 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 61 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 59 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 56 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 89 47 89 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 53 90 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 52 91 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 60 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511.