textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

1. Mostly dry conditions through Wednesday night

2. Pattern shift Thursday will bring mountain showers

3. Dry conditions and warmer conditions return through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Current night time satellite shows very little cloud cover over the region. Satellite mostly shows areas of fog through the Gorge, portions of the Basin and adjacent valleys as well as central OR. These conditions will persist through the evening until sunrise when the fog will burn off.

A transient weak ridge will build into the region behind the upper level low that has moved to the southeast. This ridge will keep the region under dry conditions through Thursday. In house climate shows the region to be slightly below seasonal average temperatures through the Basin but above average temperatures along the Blues, the eastern mountains and central OR. NBM and REFS ensembles show the temperatures to be in the 50s across the vast majority of the region through Thursday.

Thursday night models show an upper level shortwave trough moving into the region bringing with it chances of mountain showers. 70-90% of the REFs raw ensembles shows the Cascades will receive up to 0.05 inches of precipitation in 24 hours while the Blues and eastern mountains will see 0.01-0.04 inches in 24 hours. Snow levels will remain above 5500 feet some the precipitation will fall as rain along the Cascades.

After the system passes on Thursday, deterministic models are in form agreement with a zonal flow pattern setting up across the region. This will dry the region back out and allow the temperatures to steadily increase through Saturday. In house climate calculations show that by Saturday temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above seasonal normal. NBM ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 60s by Saturday with a few isolated locations seeing the high 60s with 60-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

MVFR or lower conditions to impact most sites through tonight. DLS/PDT/RDM/BDN are all seeing fog in the TAF sites currently. These sites are expected to clear out after 17Z with VFR conditions prevailing through the day. Winds will be light and variable across all TAF sites through the period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 52 37 56 35 / 0 50 30 0 ALW 51 40 54 39 / 0 50 40 0 PSC 53 35 59 33 / 0 40 20 0 YKM 54 35 59 33 / 0 30 0 0 HRI 53 36 59 33 / 0 50 20 0 ELN 51 30 53 28 / 0 50 0 0 RDM 57 30 53 27 / 0 20 0 0 LGD 57 34 54 31 / 0 20 50 0 GCD 58 35 53 29 / 0 20 20 0 DLS 55 40 60 37 / 0 50 10 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.