textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate HeatRisk conditions develop today through Wednesday as ridge moves over the area.

- Dry air with breezy conditions developing will bring elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday.

- Wetter pattern expected by the weekend with oncoming trough, bringing widespread showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms along the Eastern Mountains and southern parts of the Blues.

DISCUSSION

Satellite and radar continue to show the expected dry and clear conditions across the area, as an oncoming ridge approaches the region. Deterministic models in the short-term are agreeable that the ridge axis will make its way over the region Tuesday & Wednesday. In response, a warming trend will continue today through mid-week (>90% chance) with temperatures peaking in the low to upper 90s throughout the lower elevation/populated areas. Widespread moderate heat risk will develop (value of '2'), bringing heat threats to the most vulnerable to heat events. NBM advertises virtually no chances of triple digits occurring, coming off of 0-20% chances from a few days ago. Regardless, very warm and hot temperatures will develop and preparation may be needed to stay cool.

Dry air with minimum relative humidities in the 10-21% range will prevail through at least Thursday (70-90% chance) with breezy to locally windy conditions developing from an oncoming shortwave arriving in the midweek (60-80% chance). Breezy to locally windy gusts of 25-35 mph are expected to develop Thursday (50-70% chance) situated in the Columbia Basin & The Kittitas Valley. In conjunction with the dry air still lingering, elevated/critical fire weather conditions could develop across the Columbia Basin & Kittitas/Yakima region Thursday, and to a lesser and more isolated extent, on Wednesday. By Friday, improving overnight recoveries and minimum relative humidities. This will bring some relief from the dry air and warmer temperatures and bring some rain showers across the region. Current ensemble guidance is a bit disagreeable with the exact timing/amplitude of the system, but they all point to a trough/cold front occurring by the Friday- Saturday timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions continue with SKC to SCT conditions through the forecast period. Winds remain under 12 knots with no CIG or VIS issues expected.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 88 53 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 89 58 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 56 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 90 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 56 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 87 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 88 51 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 85 50 89 52 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 89 49 93 51 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 93 63 95 65 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024. OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ041.