textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- |Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances (15-30% chances) along the Blue Mountains and along the Foothills of the Blues through Friday.

- Slight warming trend, with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s through the weekend.

- Breezy winds along the Columbia Basin Friday, but will sit well below wind advisory criteria (70-80% chance).

DISCUSSION

Current radar and satellite images advertise clear/high sky deck with dry conditions in most of the area. An area of mid-level moisture coupled with low radar returns is located across Central Oregon near Bend and Redmond. This is a result of a cut-off low pressure system with the center over the California/Oregon border. This system will be the drive for our weather over the next couple of days, bringing rain showers across the Central Oregon through Wallowa's region (50-70% chances) with isolated to scattered thunderstorm development occurring (15-30% chances) over the next 24 hours. As the low progresses eastward, 250-500 J/kg of CAPE will develop, allowing some storms to be pulsing and brief, with no anticipated severe weather conditions expected (>90% confidence). The primary concerns with any developing storm through Friday will be frequent lightning, gusty outflows, and small hail. The thunderstorm threat will pause going into Friday morning, with a secondary peak going into Friday afternoon during peak heating hours. Development will be mostly confined to the Wallowas and parts of Grant county heading into the late Friday afternoon time frame. Afterwards, guidance is in good agreement we'll have ridging taking over the pattern that will transition us into a drier pattern through at least the beginning of next week (70-80% chance).

With the onshore of the ridge into next week, a slight warming trend bringing high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s will occur through the weekend. As a result, we may see elevated fire weather conditions re-develop with min RH's dropping to the 20-30% range across most of the region. I don't see critical fire weather conditions developing as winds will be below criteria thanks to the upper level ridge bringing mostly light winds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected during this TAF period at all sites. Light-moderate rain showers are present at sites in the Columbia Basin (PDT/ALW/PSC), along the Blue Mountain area and John Day Highlands (RDM/BDN). Clear conditions are present at DLS/YKM with just a few scattered clouds. Showers are moving roughly north-northwest and will likely persist into the afternoon hours (50% confidence). Otherwise, winds will generally be light with sustained winds from 5-10 mph. Ames/01

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 71 50 77 47 / 40 60 0 0 ALW 72 55 78 54 / 40 60 0 0 PSC 78 52 81 51 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 79 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 75 53 81 51 / 20 40 0 0 ELN 77 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 65 41 75 40 / 70 50 0 0 LGD 72 48 74 46 / 80 60 10 10 GCD 69 48 74 46 / 70 60 10 10 DLS 84 57 82 54 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.