textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier conditions return into the middle of next week, with winds becoming light by early next week

- Near to below normal temperatures this weekend warming to above normal into the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Today through Tuesday: Satellite imagery tonight shows cloudy conditions across central OR and eastern half of the forecast area, while light showers continue to move across Wallowa and Union counties. Breezy winds remain through the Cascade gaps and across portions of the Columbia Basin tonight.

Shower activity will diminish into the morning hours today as an upper trough continues to swing northeast across the Northern Rockies. While conditions dry out across the forecast area, breezy winds (15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph) will continue through the Cascade gaps, with locally breezy winds across the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills.

By Sunday, weak ridging will develop just offshore while the trough transitions into a broad low over western MT and northern ID. By Tuesday afternoon, the upper low will kick east with upper ridge sliding over the PacNW. Winds will become weak and diurnally driven through Tuesday, while a weak warming trend will see afternoon temperatures in the 80s return Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of an upper shortwave trough sliding across the PacNW Wednesday, though there is some uncertainty in timing and strength of this feature. While the main consensus is for a return of mountain showers and breezy lowland winds, some solutions (28% of members) favor a stronger shortwave that will bring area wide showers that will persist through Thursday morning. Otherwise, this pattern would also favor a return of afternoon/evening isolated thunderstorms over the mountain areas Wednesday.

Dry conditions will return to the area after the shortwave exit Thursday, but ensemble guidance is in agreement that showers will return to the Cascades and breezy Cascade gap winds will develop sometime Friday as an upper low sets up offshore the PacNW (confidence 40-60%). Lawhorn/82

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will be light this morning, then increase to 12-17kts with gusts up to 25kts at sites PDT/RDM/BDN/YKM this afternoon and evening. Winds at site DLS will increase to around 20kts with gusts 30-35kts possible. Sites ALW/PSC are expected to see light winds through the period, though a periodic gust to around 18kts cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Lawhorn/82

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 67 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 74 43 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 73 43 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 71 44 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 64 40 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 62 30 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 65 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 65 34 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 69 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.