textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming and drier trend continues through the beginning of the week, with highs trending up towards the low to mid 80s.

- Cooler, wetter pattern possible through the later part of the week with some uncertainty with specifics.

- Light to slightly elevated diurnal winds through the week.

DISCUSSION

Dry and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions through the area are continued to be advertised through satellite and radar. The upper level low has pushed off to the east over the Idaho/Montana region, allowing the upper level ridge to influence the pattern for the next several days. This will bring a warming trend in high temperatures through Monday/Tuesday (80-90% chance) until highs reach the low to mid 80s through most of the lower elevation areas. Winds will be generally diurnally driven with a few areas (especially along the Cascade gaps and the Columbia Basin) reaching wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph at times (10-30% chance).

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal on Tuesday as the ridge pushes off to the east and a trough/shortwave off British Columbia overtakes the pattern. Clusters struggle and diverge greatly how it wants to handle the upper level trough as we inch close to the weekend. Handling on strength of the shortwave, timing, or if it ever comes onshore is all over the place with no one clear solution. For example, by Friday afternoon, 19% of members brings a stronger trough that will enable a widespread precipitation pattern over the region. Of the 64% of members, guidance wants to delay the onshore of the trough and seclude the wetter pattern over the mountain areas. The remaining 17% completely tears the shortwave with no precip. While it does appear the vast majority (81% of members) of clusters keeps the pattern dry on Friday, confidence how the weather pattern will play out still remains fairly uncertain going into next weekend. Still plenty of time to monitor this evolving forecast, but not currently foretelling any major impacts (30-50% chance) although that can change depending on new guidance.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, and diurnally driven through the period. Lawhorn/82

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 78 49 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 79 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 82 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 81 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 79 52 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 79 43 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 78 49 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 79 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 85 57 88 59 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.