textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday.

- Slight drier conditions tomorrow.

- Drier conditions towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Radar shows light to moderate showers continuing to pour out in the Wallowas, which is expected to continue through the rest of the overnight hours. The associated trough that brought unsettled weather will continue to push south, leaving the low pressure system to bring wrap-around that will mostly effect the southern portions of the CWA (that include Central Oregon through the John Day Highlands) through tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Wednesday will become mostly clearer and drier thanks to a building ridge across the PacNW, which will allow day time heating to build-up over the next two days. High temperatures will build up to the mid 80s to low 90s by Thursday (70-80% chance). HeatRisk with a value of "1" (effecting the most sensitive to heat risks) will cover a large portion of the region on Wednesday and increase to "2" in parts of the Washington Basin on Thursday. Later on Thursday, the precluded daytime heating build-up with some lifting mechanism from a shortwave will bring potential thunderstorm threats across the region. Modeled Skew-T's show the potential for values of 1000 J/kg+ of CAPE to develop. Thunderstorm strength potential will be limited with a cap preventing storms for taking potential of the full energy. If the cap is broken, then storms could strengthen further. Will need to keep an eye on trends as far as short term models suggest.

Heading towards the weekend, clusters generally agree that we will head towards a drier pattern with light to moderate precip at times but generally less so than today and the next few days will be.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24-hours... light to moderate showers are expected to continue through most of the TAF sites. Winds will taper off to 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts in DLS/RDM/BDN (especially in the late morning to afternoon hours). A small chance (5-15% chance) of temporary VFR conditions is possible if heavier showers develop over TAF sites, reducing visibility and cloud decks.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 61 45 77 51 / 50 60 0 0 ALW 63 49 79 56 / 50 60 0 10 PSC 69 47 84 54 / 20 40 0 0 YKM 71 50 87 57 / 0 10 0 0 HRI 66 46 81 54 / 30 50 0 0 ELN 65 46 82 55 / 10 10 0 0 RDM 59 37 75 44 / 20 70 20 30 LGD 55 44 77 49 / 80 80 10 20 GCD 53 39 76 44 / 90 90 30 30 DLS 70 52 84 58 / 10 10 10 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.