textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

1. Breezy to windy conditions and low RHs Today and Saturday *Red Flag Warning*

2. Dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist through the weekend and beginning of the week

DISCUSSION

Current satellite shows smokey skies over the region this afternoon which will continue through the forecast period. AQAs have been extended through Monday for all counties except Sherman, Gilliam and Morrow with Deschutes dropping off tomorrow at noon. Otherwise, southwest to westerly flow will keep the smoke moving east with little to no reprieve.

Models currently show the surface thermal trough sitting over the eastern portion of the region and it is expected to exit tomorrow. This is what is causing the hot, dry and windy conditions across the region. Temperatures are in the upper 90s across a vast majority of the region with humidity as low a single digits and winds between 10 to 20 mph with areas gusting between 20 to 40 mph (70-90% confidence). This is what lead to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning today from 11 AM through Saturday at 11 PM for the Lower Columbia Basin of OR & WA, Eastern Columbia River Gorge, Warm Springs Reservation and Kittitas Valley.

Winds are expected to remain 10 to 15 mph and gusting between 20 to 30 mph through at least Tuesday with 70-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. Minimum relative humidity will slowly increase and the area will remain in elevated fire weather concerns but under critical thresholds. Westerly flow will continue through the weekend and beginning of next week with temperatures becoming slightly cooler. In house calculations shows much of the region to still be above seasonal average at 10-20 for today steadily decreasing to near 5 degrees above normal by Monday. NBM shows temperatures to be in the upper 90s today across the Basin, Gorge, central OR and foothills of the Blues while decreasing into the low 90s by Monday (70-90% confidence).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Conditions have improved with all TAF sites reporting VFR conditions. Noted some areas like PDT/ALW/PSC are borderline VFR/MVFR (i.e. six miles of visibility) and probably won't take much to briefly put them in MVFR status. Overall, I don't have smoke impacting TAF sites below VFR as of now. Breezy winds will develop in all sites except PSC by the early to late afternoon hours with the DLS prevailing through the rest of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag Warnings in effect today through Saturday at 11 PM for winds and low relative humidities. THis is for the Columbia River Basin of OR & WA, Eastern Columbia River Gorge, Warm Springs Reservation and Kittitas Valley for winds 10-20 mph gusting to 20-40 mph with humidity as low as 10-15%. Upper level flow aloft is from the west driving westerly flow at the surface. With the thermal trough over the region and moving across, winds have increased through the Cascade Gaps.

Breezy conditions are expected to persist through the beginning of the week with west winds 10-15 mph and gusting to near 20-30 mph (70- 80% confidence). As the trough exists eastward, cooler more moist air will make its way across the Cascades. Humidity will see a slight increase by Sunday and will decrease fire weather concerns from critical to elevated.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 59 93 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 65 94 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 59 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 61 96 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 62 95 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 62 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 50 93 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 58 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 57 95 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 63 93 62 90 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ690-691. Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ691-701-703.