textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chances (10-15%) of thunderstorms in the Cascade and Eastern Mountains.

- Cooling trend through the weekend with high temperatures dropping to the mid to upper 70s by Saturday.

- Diurnal winds with periods of breezy winds across the region through the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Satellite and radar depict dry and mostly clear conditions through the area with high to mid clouds prevail across the eastern mountains. Not expecting any showers or thunderstorms with this system as NBM guidance keeps chances <5% through tonight. Weather overall remains mostly fair and benign as a weak shortwave pushes through the area. Lifting will bring slight chances of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mountains (up to 10% chance). REF's develop 100-250 J/kg of MUCAPE both late morning to early evening Friday & Saturday. Parts of the Foothills of the Blues through Central Oregon have greater development on Friday than Saturday, thus giving each area up to 10% chances of storms developing. PWATs are dry with less than 0.8 inches through the development period, so I would suspect that the majority of storms that will develop through the weekend to be mostly dry with an occasional strong, wet storm. Not expecting abundant lightning with this system, but some storms can still bring lightning and possibly small pea size hail in some of the strongest developing storms across the Eastern Mountains.

As the shortwave passes through, we'll see elevated fire weather conditions prevail through Saturday as breezy winds develop overlapping with dry air in the region. Not expecting criteria to hit over a wide area, but could see some isolated areas of critical conditions developing in parts of the Basin. At the same time, temperatures cool off through the weekend, with high temperatures dropping down to the mid to upper 70s by Saturday (70-90% confidence) that will improve fire weather conditions as we head through the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions will prevail through parts of the region, but not expecting a wide critical set-up through the shortwave passage.

Guidance is in agreement that our next set-up for a wide precip event will be sometime mid next-week with a trough digging down, bringing southwesterly flow aloft increasing PoP's across the board. Plenty of time to monitor for impacts as impacts look to be a week out with no anticipated severe weather set-up at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Some smoke will linger with RDM at 6SM.

Winds have begun to increase across all TAF sites with sustained winds 10-14 kts and gusting between 20-24kts. Winds are expected to remain elevated through 01Z before settling below 12 kts.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 82 47 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 85 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 88 52 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 86 55 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 82 42 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 88 49 86 47 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 91 52 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 80 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for ORZ041-505-506- 509>511.