textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming and drying trend throughout the week

- Pattern change this weekend bringing potential for light precipitation

DISCUSSION

A cutoff low over Nevada shown on the midlevel water vapor is expected to dig south and translate east. Wrapped around this low remains a pocket of dry sinking air which is what is preventing clouds over the region. Over the Pacific, a high pressure system is building forcing the amplification of the the ridge upstream from the CWA.

This week the region is expected to warm up lowering the chances for subfreezing temperatures. Wednesday, the subfreezing probabilities are limited to the higher elevations along the Blue Mountains into the John Day Highlands. The Wednesday subfreezing temperatures probabilities range from 30% to 75%. Thursday overnight lows though the region remain above freezing, but some isolated cases in the low valleys such as Seneca and the foothills of the Blue Mountains could see sub-freezing temperatures still. Moving toward the weekend, the warming trend continues under the ridge, bringing the region above climatological normals by 6-15 degrees. The area should remain dry until next week. Box and whiskers have a a wider envelope with the 25th and 75th having a wider variance in the temperatures.

Next week clusters are suggesting a timing and amplitude differences in all the clusters. Clusters 3 and 4 have the ridge being stronger in amplitude and lingering over the region while showing lower QPF values. Clusters 2 and 3 are a dipole pattern suggesting a timing issue with the trough moving through. Cluster 1 suggests the trough will likely be stronger coinciding with higher QPF values.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 64 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 65 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 67 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 65 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 66 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 62 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 66 27 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 63 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 64 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 70 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for WAZ026>029-521. OR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ044-049-050- 507-508-510.