textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Weather system will push through the area Tuesday, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms in the mountain areas.

- Chances of isolated thunderstorms greatest on Thursday through the afternoon to evening hours.

- Fall like weather continues through the week with high temperatures in the low to high 70s.

DISCUSSION

Satellite and radar advertise dry conditions with mostly clear skies across the region. Fall like conditions with highs in the low 70s to high 70s. Winds are generally light with typical diurnal winds through the area. Our next weather maker will arrive sometime Tuesday with a trough/shortwave making its way down from BC, clipping the PacNW in the process. Flow aloft in the process will shift to the southwest, allowing for moisture transportation to bring PoP's up to 15-40% over Central Oregon and the mountain region. Most weather will be stratiform with light to moderate rain showers through the late morning to late afternoon hours.

Guidance is in good agreement that the low will be cut-off over Oregon and northern California (80-90% confidence). Chances of isolated thunderstorms for Central Oregon and mountain regions increase Thursday (up to 25% chance) with the low overhead. Wetting rains will remain local, with areas receiving the heaviest showers/storms receiving wetting rains. Otherwise, guidance becomes less confidence as we head into Friday after the shortwave becomes a cutoff low. About 49% of clusters advertise a drier pattern associated with weaker trough/shortwave, while the remaining 51% advertise the opposite. Confidence is better in the latter part of Saturday and Sunday as most members show at least zonal flow or slight ridging overhead that has drier weather in place by the weekend. Although guidance is no where in a conscience how it wants to handle the shortwave beyond Sunday, although conditions appear benign until at least the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals. Winds will diminish this evening to be light and variable for most locations. This will largely persist until Tuesday afternoon when northerly winds (at around 5 knots) develop. Some spots in the southwest, such as RDM and BDN, may see slightly stronger winds in the afternoon, closer to 10 knots with gusts to around 15-18 knots. Additionally, cloud cover will increase through the day on Tuesday and there is a low chance (10-20%) of a few showers over the northwest near YKM. Confidence is too low to include RA in the TAF at this time, but this will be reassessed in subsequent updates.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 42 67 45 72 / 0 0 10 0 ALW 47 70 48 75 / 0 0 10 0 PSC 45 70 46 79 / 0 0 10 0 YKM 47 66 48 74 / 0 10 10 0 HRI 44 70 46 76 / 0 0 10 0 ELN 42 61 42 70 / 0 20 10 0 RDM 37 70 39 69 / 0 0 20 10 LGD 41 72 45 74 / 0 0 20 0 GCD 41 75 44 74 / 0 0 30 0 DLS 50 72 54 80 / 0 0 10 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.