textproduct: Pendleton

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DISCUSSION

Precipitation chances will be dwindling rapidly this afternoon as high surface pressure increases across the region. Locally dense fog was forming along the foothills of the northern Blues This Afternoon, which may be the precursor to more fog development Tonight. With the recent rains and some snow areas, and a cool moist boundary layer, the risk for some freezing fog exists overnight as temperatures plummet into the upper 20s, with the only area escaping freezing temperatures being the Columbia River Gorge. Other than this diurnally recurring local/areas of freezing fog risk, little sensible weather (Little to no risk) is expected for about 36 hours or through at least early Thursday. Despite the high pressure, starting out colder early Wednesday morning will promote even cooler high temperatures in some spots Wednesday than we are seeing This Afternoon, but overall it will be a similar day are far as highs go. The warming trend does not begin until Thursday evening when rains and breezy conditions redevelop. High mountain snows are possible as well Thursday night as the NBM prints 3 along the Wallowa Eagle Caps. EPS ensemble mean 500 mb heights show a sharp drop in heights around Friday, turning the westerly flow not only cooler but more zonal. Efficient rains return to the Cascades and northern Blues, as begins a wet period for the end of the week and beyond. NBM is producing gusts in the high 40 knots range across the Simcoe Highlands Friday Night. This looks like a possibility of a high end advisory episode from late Saturday afternoon through early morning Saturday as model LREF ensembles show nearly 70% chances of 40 mph gusts or higher over the lower Columbia Basin of Washington and Simcoe Highlands areas. However large uncertainty exists as the huge differences are seen between the 25th and 75th percentile wind gusts, between 22 and 38 mph respectively. A significant bump in total precipitation for the season is expected through the weekend, as even the lower Columbia Basin is shown by the grand ensemble mean to receive around one quarter inch of rain, and the higher elevations of the eastern mountains have means of anywhere from 1 to 2 inches total precipitation. Russell/71

AVIATION...00Z TAFs

Variable conditions will prevail through the period. VFR conditions have developed at sites DLS/PDT/RDM/BDN/YKM, and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Site ALW will see brief improvement to IFR this evening, but vsby and cigs will deteriorate to less than IFR conditions around 9Z. Site PSC has improved to MVFR conditions, but like ALW, vsby/CIGs will deteriorate to IFR or lower around 9Z. Sites DLS/PDT/YKM will see MVFR cigs/vsby begin to develop around or after 4Z-6Z and persist through tomorrow morning (confidence 40-60%). Sites PDT/YKM will improve to VFR conditions around 19Z, while CIGS and vsby at sites DLS/ALW/PSC are expected to remain at or lower than MVFR conditions into tomorrow afternoon(confidence 40-50%). Sites RDM/BDN will remain VFR through the period(confidence 50-70%). Winds will remain light, 12kts or less. Lawhorn/82

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

PDT 27 40 28 42 / 0 10 0 60 ALW 28 38 30 40 / 10 10 10 60 PSC 24 37 28 40 / 0 10 0 40 YKM 25 38 28 41 / 0 10 0 30 HRI 25 38 28 41 / 0 10 0 50 ELN 23 37 27 41 / 0 10 10 30 RDM 21 45 24 47 / 0 0 0 20 LGD 25 40 26 41 / 10 0 0 60 GCD 27 42 26 44 / 10 0 0 50 DLS 35 44 36 46 / 0 10 0 50

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None. WA...None.

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