textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm trend continues through the early part of next week.

- Locally breezy to possible windy conditions possible through the weekend into early next week.

- Possible fire weather concerns developing this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Current conditions depicted by satellite and radar shows a clear, dry weather pattern over the area. This is in thanks to the ridge situated over the Pacific Ocean currently, that will continue to mostly influence the pattern over the next week. The ridge is forecasted (confidence of greater than 90 percent chance) to continue to amplify through the weekend, allowing for dry conditions to strongly persist. Guidance is in good agreement that by Friday, a shortwave will pass just through the PacNW, allowing pressure gradients to tighten and bring breezy 15 to 25 mph gusts across the area (greater than 90 percent confidence). Fire weather concerns start to develop over the weekend with minimum RH's dropping close to 10-15% through much of the area by Sunday (60 to 80 percent chance) and persist through early next week.

By Tuesday, guidance breaks the ridge down while developing breezy to locally windy conditions into the lower elevation zones. Current NBM members advertise 40 to 60 percent chances of the Kittitas Valley developing wind advisory criteria winds on Tuesday & 15 to 35 percent chances along The Dalles and parts of the Columbia River Gorge. The warming trend will last through Tuesday (70 to 90 percent confidence) with the ridge breaking down. NBM currently brings Tuesday high temperatures as high as 96-99 degrees in the lower elevation areas. The NBM is currently forecasting a 40 to 60 percent chance that parts of the Columbia Basin (including the Tri- Cities) will reach above 100 degrees, with Yakima advertising a 30 to 50 percent chance of exceeding 100 degrees. Regardless, very hot temperatures with widespread '2' to '2.5' values are expected by Tuesday (60 to 80 percent chance).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

TAFs remain VFR through the period with light and variable winds mostly less than 12 knots. The sole exception to this is the DLS that will develop breezy 20 to 25 knot gusts by the late afternoon hours that will mostly persist through the remaining period. Otherwise, no CIG or VIS concerns expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Drying and warming conditions will continue to build through early next week, along with some breezy conditions to occur starting through the weekend. This will mesh-up to bring RFW criteria to several areas across the Columbia Basin through Central Oregon (medium confidence of 30 to 50 percent). Main days of concern as of now will be Tuesday through Wednesday with min RH's dropping down to 10 to 15 percent across most of Central Oregon and other lower elevation spots. Breezy to possibly windy conditions will develop during the driest time of the day, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph across the Columbia Basin (40 to 60 percent chance confidence) and 10 to 15 mph sustained winds through Central Oregon (40 to 60 percent chance confidence).

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 79 49 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 79 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 83 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 82 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 82 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 80 44 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 78 44 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 81 43 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 82 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.