textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance (15 to 20%) of thunderstorms through the Wallowas through Friday afternoon. - Drier weather pattern through at least the beginning of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s by the weekend.

- Uncertain weather pattern by late next week, as clusters advertise a third/third/third solution on a dry, wet, or zonal pattern by Friday.

DISCUSSION

The upper level low pressure system that brought showers and thunderstorms in the area earlier on Thursday will continue to push towards the east. We'll see some lingering moisture develop thunderstorms (15 to 20% chances) across the eastern Blue Mountains and Wallowas through Friday afternoon. By Saturday, the low will move out of the area with an upper level ridge moving in it's place. We'll see mostly dry conditions with a warming trend take place through the weekend with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s in the lower elevated areas.

By Tuesday, guidance is in good agreement (80-90% chance) that the ridge will then break down with zonal flow taking place and temperatures will be cooler by 5 to 15 degrees as a result. Our next chance of another weather system will be sometime mid to late next week with some guidance members hinting at a trough digging down in the Pacific and pushing onshore by late next week. Guidance is a bit all over the place by this point, with only 32% advertising a wetter pattern with the trough axis moving onshore by Friday afternoon. Another 38% advertise a ridge overhead, while the remaining 30% wants to keep zonal flow in place. Nothing is for sure with late next week, but there is plenty of time to see how this forecast evolves and what impacts it could bring.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds will be generally below 12 kts at all sites except DLS which will be gusty to near 20 kts through 02Z. CIGs will begin to tapper off through the period to SKC this afternoon as dry conditions push inland.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 77 47 78 48 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 77 53 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 81 51 82 51 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 81 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 81 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 39 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 74 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 74 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 82 54 85 56 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.