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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

A tight zonal flow pattern is in place at the base of a more broad mid level trough across the Columbia basin . A thermal trough was also developing along the nrn CA and srn OR coasts. Models show the northward development of the thermal trough through Monday as an upper ridge build back over the Cascades behind the exiting shortwave. As the upper ridge builds through the week, hotter temperatures are expected to develop each afternoon through Thursday; Thursday will be the hottest day with widespread upper 90s across the Columbia Basin, Snake River and John Day Basins. Heat Risk will be widespread in the Minor category (yellow) with some locally Moderate Wednesday onto Saturday. Thursday will the the warmest day with areas of of moderate heat risk affecting those sensitive to heat and without cooling to hydration, and some health systems. Following into the weekend, the upper ridge appears to flatter based on the GFS/EC as shortwave energy moves across BC. This pattern would ease the Heat while remaining dry. The 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK leans dryer than normal with warmer than normal temperatures for the August 7 to 11 period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. With the exception of ALW and PSC, there will be some wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range through the late afternoon and early evening. Winds will decrease to 10 kts or less this evening at these locations. ALW and PSC will be 10 kts or less throughout.

FIRE WEATHER

Relative humidity will remain critical over the next week. Wind will be lacking enough to prevent any risk of widespread red flag criteria. Red flag criteria could be met on a more localize basis and mainly in the last few hours of the afternoon as afternoon mixing/wind gusts become maximized with this weather pattern.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 77 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 78 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 81 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 80 50 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 74 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 79 37 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 78 44 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 81 43 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 79 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for WAZ028>030. OR...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for ORZ044-049-050-502- 503-505>511.

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