textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain is likely overnight into Sunday.Areas in the flood watch should have many way to get alerts.

- Wind gusts above 30MPH are likely much of Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

A low pressure system currently located off the coast of Oregon and Washington is moving south eastward, it should move ashore during the afternoon. After moving inland the low should begin steering towards the northeast. Rain should begin to develop as it moves inland. Overnight the rain will become more widespread.

Ensemble and deterministic gudience still remains in disagreement on QPF totals. Holistically the CWA should see an above normal amount of rain this time of year with EFI values between .8 and .9 and SOT of 2 and 1 on the Oregon/Washington border, putting emphasis on a potential for a high QPF rain event. Overall the QPF has decreased over the last several runs and reseeded more north toward our neighboring CWAs. NBM 10th percentile has the Kittitas valley receiving 1" of rain and the Colombia Basin and the Blue Mountains mostly receiving .20". The southern leeward side of the Cascades will likely be rain shadowed out of higher QPF totals. The 90th percentile QPF again Has the Kittitas Valley in higher QPF values and the Columbia Basin exceeding 1.20". Probabilities of >= .50" occurring excluding those along southern leeward side of the Cascades which will again be rain shadowed. >= 1" is where the Probs really decline throughout most of the area, aside from the Kittitas and Yakima Valley which remain >=80% chance.

Thunderstorms remain at <= 20% chance mostly occurring in the higher elevations of the Blue Mountains overnight. A potential exists for flooding over the Paradise and Hagen fires subsequent flood watches have been issued for those areas.

Wind gusts probs through much of Columbia Gorge, Basin, Kittitas Valley and Foothills of the Blue Mountains have a >90% chance of 35mph or greater. Most of the CWA should see at least 20-30 with those areas mentioned seeing higher gusts.

Temperatures over the weekend remain well below seasonal averages. Sundays high temperatures will remain in the 60-65F with cooler temperatures in the higher elevations. After sunday and through out the week temperatures will rebound to climate norms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the first 6 hours of the forecast period. Winds will begin to increase from the northwest later this afternoon and into this evening, with breezy conditions prevailing through the morning on Sunday. Light rain is expected to move into the region late tonight, with the highest confidence of rain occurring at the northern sites. Along with the light rain, lower cigs will filter into the area, with MVFR conditions setting in between 09Z and 12Z and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 76 46 63 44 / 0 100 70 40 ALW 79 51 63 50 / 0 100 80 70 PSC 80 48 64 46 / 0 90 80 30 YKM 76 50 62 45 / 0 100 100 10 HRI 79 47 65 46 / 0 100 60 30 ELN 72 44 57 41 / 0 100 100 20 RDM 71 36 61 33 / 10 90 10 0 LGD 81 45 62 43 / 0 90 60 60 GCD 81 44 61 40 / 0 90 40 10 DLS 77 52 66 51 / 20 100 60 10

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Sunday evening for WAZ030. OR...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM PDT this afternoon through Sunday evening for ORZ502.