textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

1. Breezy to windy through the gaps today

2. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the week

3. Pattern shift Tuesday will bring chances of mountain showers

DISCUSSION

Currently satellite shows some mid level clouds forming over central OR with high clouds across the remainder of the region. Another dry and cool night on the docket. Low temperatures this morning will be in the mid to upper 40s across much of the region with the Basin seeing low 50s (70-90% confidence).

Models show a shortwave rippling around the ridge bringing with it increased winds through the mountain gaps. Winds will be strongest through the Kittitas Valley with winds between 25-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph expected (70-80% confidence). There is a Wind Advisory in effect from 11 AM Friday to 11 AM Friday for these winds. Winds through the Gorge will be elevated to near 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph with 70-90% of the HREF raw ensembles in agreement. Winds will also be elevated along the foothills of the Blues with winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph with 70-90% of the HREF raw ensembles in agreement. Models show once the shortwave dissipates, winds will return to 'normal' across the region with winds settling back to diurnally driven.

Models show the upper level ridge to be in place over the region with no signs of movement through the remainder of the week and over the weekend. Dry and warm conditions will remain through the period with in house calculations showing temperatures to be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal today steadily increasing to 15-25 degrees above seasonal normal by Tuesday. The shortwave the models show coming across the region will bring slightly cooler temperatures today with temperatures in the low to mid 70s across much of the region with 80-90% of the HREF raw ensembles in agreement. The Basin will see temperatures in the low 80s. As we move through the weekend, the ridge with rebound and temperatures will steadily increase with Sunday being the warmest day over the weekend with temperatures in the low to mid 80s across much of the region with high 70s elsewhere (70-80% confidence).

Models show the ridge remaining overhead through Tuesday when they show an upper level system making its way towards the PacNW. Clusters show there to be a variance between the timing an position of the system. ECMWF and the Canadian are in closer agreement with an upper level low moving in with southwest flow aloft. GFS is slow to bring the low in as well as bringing the low in lower towards the coast of California. Regardless, all models show the breakdown of the ridge leading to increased chances of mountain precipitation and cooler temperatures. Confidence in the forecast thus far is low/moderate (30-50%). 90

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Breezy winds will be the primary concern as all TAF sites will see winds between 16-18Z with sustained winds between 10-20 kts with gusts between 20-30 kts. CIGs will be mostly FEW250 to BKN250. 90

FIRE WEATHER

With the dry and warm conditions, daytime RHs will see lows in the teens, especially through central OR through the week becoming a bit more widespread by Tuesday. Moderate overnight recoveries tonight with increasing recoveries through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

Naches at Naches remains above action level and is expected to remain as such through the week. (90% confidence)

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 46 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 81 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 46 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 43 77 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 38 84 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 41 77 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 40 80 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 48 83 55 77 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. OR...None.