textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate HeatRisk Friday and again Monday through Wednesday

- Critical Fire Weather Saturday

DISCUSSION

Heat and Fire weather risks are the main couple weather setups going forward that may result in impacts over the next week or so across the PDT CWA. Deep subsidence continues into Friday, keeping winds light across the across the region. 850Mb temperatures in the 20 to 22C range will promote mixing of hotter afternon temperatures reaching into the the mid 90s. HeatRisk is most pronounced Friday and then again Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day of the week where lower elevation Columbia basin areas can easily exceed 100F with overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night between 65 and 70F. HeatRisk in the river Gorge and Valley is approaching Level 3 (red) during this time frame. HeatRisk is most pronounced Friday and then again Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day of the week where lower elevation Columbia basin areas can easily exceed 100F with overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night between 65 and 70F. Heat risk in the river Gorge and Valley is approaching Level 3 (red) during this time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with light and variable winds. CIGs will remain SKC to BKN250.

FIRE WEATHER

Far lower wind speeds will lead to an overall lower risk for critical fire weather This Afternoon. Attention to OR700 this afternoon will point toward observations flirting with red flag criteria as wind speeds are forecast to reach about or possibly exceed 10 mph (about 80% confidence) over the lower elevations/western sections of that fire zone and low RH, in the 10 to 15% range by the NBM mean is expected. Continued 20 to 30% Rh will be common with moderate (40 to 60%) recoveries overnight into early Friday morning. Higher confidence in critical fire weather probabilities well exceeding 60% across OR700, OR691 and WA690 would favor a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and evening. The Eastern Columbia river Gorge will be and are of enhanced dry and breezy winds Friday afternoon. Critical combined RH and wind of 25% and 20 mph winds come in at about 30-40% confidence in the afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 54 91 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 59 93 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 58 95 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 60 94 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 57 94 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 55 91 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 50 91 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 91 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 50 95 55 86 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 63 95 62 81 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for WAZ690. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ORZ691-700.