textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to windy conditions through this evening.

- Increasing precipitation chances later this afternoon/evening as a cold front moves across the region.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the next few days with drier conditions for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

An upper low and cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest today. The upper low will then gradually move south into California over the next few days. However, the larger cyclonic circulation associated with the broader trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. The low is then forecast to move northward and weaken, and be absorbed into a drier southwesterly flow between a ridge over the midsection of the country and a low well of the coast by later Friday into the weekend.

As the low and cold front move across the region today, gusty winds are expected. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of the area. Even in locations not under the wind advisory, breezy conditions are anticipated. The combination of breezy to windy conditions and low relative humidities will bring enhanced fire weather concerns, everywhere, but especially across central Oregon and the John Day Highlands, where RH values are lowest.

Shoer chances will increase from west to east late this afternoon into this evening and overnight as the front moves through. The best (albeit low) chance for thunderstorms is in far eastern Oregon.

On Tuesday, the low will be over the region, beginning to move south. As with any upper low, there is instability for thunderstorms and the best chances (<15%) look to be over central Oregon.

After Tuesday night, low rain chances will continue mainly over the mountains Wednesday, then increase again Thursday into Friday as the low treks north. Once again, due to the proximity of the upper low there will be at least some thunderstorm potential. Will have to see how this develops through the week.

Beyond late Friday a drier pattern then moves in for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

A cold front and upper-level low will bring showery weather to the region over the next 24 hours. Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast; RDM/BDN have the best chance (at least 30 percent) of MVFR CIGs Tuesday evening. Winds will diminish to 12 kts or less, with some higher gusts, overnight through Tuesday.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 43 61 45 77 / 90 50 60 0 ALW 47 63 49 79 / 70 50 60 0 PSC 44 69 47 84 / 70 20 40 0 YKM 45 71 50 87 / 30 0 10 0 HRI 44 66 46 81 / 80 30 50 0 ELN 41 65 46 82 / 40 10 10 0 RDM 33 59 37 75 / 30 20 70 20 LGD 41 55 44 77 / 60 80 80 10 GCD 38 53 39 76 / 90 90 90 30 DLS 45 70 52 84 / 20 10 10 10

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.