textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather conditions will occur today as dry and locally breezy conditions develop.

- Heat Risk values increase starting early next week as an offshore ridge pushes through the area.

- Dry conditions prevail through at least the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday: Satellite currently shows high FEW to SCT clouds across the region, with radar showing very light showers in eastern Grant and southern Wallowa counties. Precip will dry out by the morning hours, paving the way for drier conditions later on. Forecast wise, the latest deterministic guidance from the EURO and GFS currently show a shortwave passing through the region, which will help in the development of locally breezy winds across the region. With relative humidities during the day ranging from 10-20% and the previously mentioned breezy winds, critical fire weather concerns will occur from the Kittitas Valley down to the Columbia Basin down to Central Oregon. Fire weather zones WA690, WA691, OR691, and OR700 have been warned for Red Flag Warnings through much of today as a result.

Monday through Wednesday: A ridge currently situated just offshore in the Pacific will continue to push on-shore through the next several days. Current guidance is in good agreement the ridge axis will move over the area sometime late Monday night through Tuesday morning (>90% chance). This will initiate a warming trend early next-week through mid next-week with the hottest days looking to be Tuesday and Wednesday (60-80% chance). NBM has slightly trended down with the high temperatures compared to last night, shying further from the triple digits. Latest NBM still only advertises the chances of triple digits reaching the lower elevations at 0-20%, with a somewhat slight downtrend compared to 24-hours ago. Regardless, widespread moderate heat risk through the region will develop Tuesday & Wednesday with isolated major heat risks across the Columbia Basin at this time. Confidence in major heat risk (40-70% chance) has initiated an extreme heat watch for The Dalles on Tuesday. Still plenty of time to monitor for trends and if additional high lights are warranted.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions currently prevail through all of the TAG sites with no CIG or VIS issues expected. The main weather highlight this period will be the breezy winds developing through the late morning to afternoon hours. Breezy winds currently initiate at DLS and PDT and is expected to prevail through the remaining TAF period, though PDT will see winds weakening more so than DLS by 07Z. Other sites will initiate with lighter winds with peaking 20-30 knot gusts starting around the late morning/afternoon hours through the early evening hours.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 84 51 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 86 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 91 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 90 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 86 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 81 52 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 41 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 83 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 86 44 84 45 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 81 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ691. Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for WAZ024. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT tonight for WAZ026. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690. OR...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691-700. Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for ORZ041.