textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures into early next week.

- Possible shower and low thunderstorm chances for portions of the area Friday into next week.

DISCUSSION

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through Friday.

This ridge will then be pushed eastward later Friday as a trough drops down from Canada off the west coast and eventually closes off an upper low by Friday night. This low then moves south off the California coast through Sunday then moves inland. Strong high pressure will then rebuild back over the Pacific Northwest for much of the upcoming week.

As the high pressure builds over the region, temperatures will rise each day, likely peaking Monday. High temperatures will be 15 to possibly as much as 20 degrees above normal. HeatRisk will be in the minor category, as we enter early May. EFI anomalies for high temperatures will be 0.8 to 0.9 in places like the Columbia Basin, with a more widespread 0.7 to 0.8 across more of the region. By Monday, NBM probabilities of high temperatures >=90 degrees are 40 to 60 percent in portions of the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley, and 30 to 40 percent on Tuesday, though forecasted high temperatures are below 90 degrees at this time.

Beginning on Friday, as the low moves off the coast, there is at least a low chance of showers and or thunderstorms across portions of our area. On Friday, it appears to be mainly confined to the mountains of central Oregon. On Saturday, chances are perhaps a bit more widespread across the Oregon Cascades with thunderstorm chances still fairly low in the mountains of central Oregon.

For Sunday into early next week, it is all going to depend on the track of the low as it moves into California and then eastward. Some guidance suggests there could be at least some QPF across southern Oregon and areas like the John Day Highlands while other guidance is much drier. At this point, there doesn't seem to bee much agreement, though 2/3rds of the QPF clusters are supporting a drier solution at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions with winds 10 kts or less are expected through the TAF period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 74 45 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 75 50 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 79 45 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 77 47 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 78 44 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 73 44 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 72 37 78 45 / 0 0 0 10 LGD 70 41 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 71 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 79 50 81 56 / 0 0 0 10

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.