textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming and drying trend continues through next week.

- Heat Risks increasing by early to mid next-week.

- Breezy to windy conditions, along with dry conditions, will elevate fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

An upper level ridge currently offshore is responsible for our clear, warm, and dry conditions over the area. This trend will continue through at least early next-week as the ridge continues to amplify over the weekend and move onshore. At the same time, a broad area trough in the Northern Great Plains with an embedded shortwave will move through the area, bringing breezy conditions over the weekend with gusts up to 15-25 mph (50-70% chance). Dry air with minimum relative humidities will stay in the teens and upper 20s before they spread through much of the lower elevations. Elevated fire level concerns will be isolated over the weekend with the greatest potential for RFW criteria through the mid-week (more details below in the fire weather section).

The warming trend will continue through at least Monday (70-90% chance) with highs in the mid to upper 90s in most of the lower elevation spots. NBM currently advertises 60-90% chances that parts of The Dalles through the Columbia Basin & the Yakima Valley will see temperatures exceeding 95 degrees Monday. Major Heat Risk values (2.5+) has expanded into parts of The Dalles, Yakima Valley, and Central Oregon on Monday with minor Heat Risk (value of '2') across the rest of the elevated areas. Tuesday has seen a downtrend in the aerial coverage of values of '2', though it is noted that parts of Central Oregon are now in a Major Heat Risk. Regardless, warm temperatures will pose a threat to at least the most sensitive groups.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions prevail with light winds less than 12 knots initiating. PDT/RDM/BDN/ALW will see some breezier winds of gusts up to 25 knots developing by 19-21z. Winds will taper down by 03-05z then throughout the rest of the TAF period. No CIG or VIS issues expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns increase going into early next-week with dry air in the region. RH's in the teens to 20s will prevail through at least early next week (>85% chance) with breezy to locally windy conditions developing Tuesday. Main areas of concerns will be the Columbia Basin (WA/OR691) and Central Oregon (OR700, OR704, and OR705). With that, a Fire Weather Watch may be issued over the next 24-48 hours (60-80% confidence level). While dry air continues through the weekend, winds will not be as strong as Tuesday, but pockets of breezy winds will develop, allowing isolated areas reaching RFW criteria.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 84 50 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 85 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 88 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 87 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 87 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 83 54 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 84 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 81 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 83 45 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 90 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.