textproduct: Pendleton

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to windy conditions possible Friday.

- Cooler/wetter pattern this weekend with possible mountain showers.

- Elevated fire weather concerns going through the next couple of days.

DISCUSSION

Not much to talk about on satellite and radar as dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevail. Looking aloft, this is in response from a building ridge and area of high pressure. A thermal trough will build over the area through Thursday allowing east winds to keep overnight recoveries 30-50% through Thursday night.

Going through the next few days, the ridge will move out of the area with an upper level trough moving from the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW. As the trough moves closer to the area, GFS and NAM guidance advertises 10-12 mb pressure gradients from Portland to Spokane. NBM advertises 30-50% chances Friday for wind gusts reaching over 45 mph across the Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley, and parts of the Columbia Basin (especially near the Foothills). Minimum relative humidities Friday improve from Thursday with min RH's rising from 20-30% to 25-35%. Portions of Central Oregon will still see RH values drop as a low as 10-15% through Friday (70-80% chance). Elevated winds could bring some blowing dust in portions of the area Friday and possibly Saturday.

Guidance struggles how to handle the system going through the weekend and into early next-week as clusters are split whether to close the low off and/or handle the strength of the shortwave. About 43% of members favor a stronger shortwave with a wetter QPF's across the region, allowing for precip to develop across the mountains and portions of the Columbia Basin. The other 57% of members wants to lessen the strength of the trough and bring drier conditions going into Sunday and Monday. Regardless of pattern, it doesn't suggest any impacts will be significant with most QPF's from the NBM not being higher than a quarter of an inch. A more likely impact will be freezing temperatures going into the weekend with the shortwave bringing a much cooler pattern, potentially bringing impacts across Central Oregon and portions of the Columbia Basin through the weekend (50-70% confidence).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions prevail with high pressure over the area promoting dry and calm conditions. Winds will be generally light with most sustained winds less than 12 knots. No CIG or VIS issues expected over the next 24-hours.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

PDT 79 46 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 80 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 80 46 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 80 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 80 45 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 82 40 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 84 45 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 89 48 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 84 53 86 52 / 0 0 0 0

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...None. OR...None.