textproduct: Pittsburgh

SYNOPSIS

A prolonged period of dry weather is expected. Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal today will see a gradual warming trend over the upcoming work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier weather today, save for a few showers north of I-80 - Temperatures will continue to be 10 degrees below normal ---------------------------------------------------------------

Dry weather (outside of a few stray and very light possible showers/sprinkles north of I-80) is expected today as surface high pressure moves in across the region. The mentioned precipitation will be possible due to h850 temps of 3-4C advecting over Lake Erie water temps near 22C. Temperatures will be fairly similar to observed Saturday, as increased sunshine is offset by cooler 850mb temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/

KEY MESSAGES:

- Continued dry conditions and the beginning of a warming trend - Patchy valley fog possible --------------------------------------------------------------

Height rises overnight and into next week are forecast as the eastern CONUS trough axis weakens in amplitude and moves off to the east, replaced by more zonal flow. Limited cloud coverage overnight will allow for efficient radiative cooling to take lows to between 10 and 15 degrees below average with patchy valley fog. Monday, mixing will allow warmer (but still below average) afternoon temperatures Monday with only patchy afternoon cumulus and continued dry conditions.

Monday night into Tuesday will bring much of the same with cool lows and valley fog, followed by another slight increase to daytime highs, but still slightly below average. High clouds may increase through Tuesday as upper moisture blows off from a coastal southeast low.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight warming trend and dry conditions continue ------------------------------------------------------------------ There appears to be a continued consensus that upper shortwave troughing drops over the area through the Wednesday to Friday period, slowing the warming trend and keeping temperatures near average. Despite the upper veering flow, near-surface high pressure and subsidence is forecast to prevail, keeping temperatures near climatological normal and much of the area dry.

Uncertainty increases towards the end of the week and through the weekend with the overall synoptic pattern, but all in all, dry conditions look likely to persist through the period. 10th and 90th percentile ensemble max temperatures continue to show about a 20 degree spread, but have kept the forecast at the mean which is right around normal for this time of year.

OUTLOOK.

High confidence in high pressure supporting VFR and light wind as the predominate weather type through at least mid week. Variances in these conditions will only be the result of localized morning river valley fog.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.