textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this morning (40-80% chances), with slightly lower chances (30-55%) from midday into early this evening.

- Scattered showers and storms return Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), then chances will increase significantly late Friday night into Saturday (70-85% chances) with the approach and passage of a cold front.

- High temperatures will be near record readings Friday ahead of the cold front.

- A significant cool down is expected over the weekend, then we will see a warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms (40-80% chances) will persist through the morning hours today ahead of an upper level wave moving toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Scattered convection (30-60% chances) will continue develop in the heat of the day from midday into early this evening until the upper wave pushes east of the region. Dry conditions can be expected late tonight into Friday morning.

On Friday, near record high temperatures are expected as south winds increase ahead of a cold front. Forecast highs are in the 83 to 87 degree range, with current records in the 86 to 89 degree range. Clouds/convection will play a big part in whether any locations can tie or break a record.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), with more organized convection arriving by late Friday night into Saturday with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Chances by late Friday night into Saturday morning will increase to 70-85%. The highest chances late Friday night will be focused across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, by Saturday morning across the entire area, then by late Saturday afternoon across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Small chances of showers (20% west to 45% southeast) will linger into Saturday evening, with a stray shower still possible late Saturday night from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. Rainfall totals from Friday afternoon through Saturday night will generally be from a third to around three quarters of an inch.

Much cooler conditions will follow the cold front with breezy northwest winds. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s, lows Saturday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs Sunday in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure will move to our east Sunday night, shifting winds back to the south. A warming trend will begin Monday, with near normal temperatures Monday, and well above normal temperatures by Wednesday. Models show a weak cold front approaching our area from the north by mid week, producing small chances (15-25%) of showers and storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Area of SHRA/TSRA to the west will weaken as it approaches and moves across the terminals. Highest probability for TSRA will be at CGI and PAH with PROB30 groups elsewhere. A break is expected after 12Z before additional shower activity develops at CGI/PAH between 15-18Z. A few guidance shows isolated TSRA development in the afternoon in SEMO and W KY. Confidence is too low at this time to include mention. Winds will remain from the south through the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.