textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures run near to slightly above normal (50s) through the weekend, and continue with above normal temperatures (60s) through next week. There is a 40-70% chance that high temperatures reach 70 degrees or better next Wednesday, the warmest day of the week.

- There is a 60-80% chance we will see at least 1" of rainfall this weekend, and a 20-40% chance amounts may exceed 2".

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Return flow ahead of high pressure to the east and low pressure developing/heading this way from the west means a warming and moistening profile heading into the weekend. As the next weather maker nears, we'll see rain chances enter the forecast tonight in SEMO, and spread across the entirety of the region tmrw. Chances peak with the system's closest proximity arrival Saturday night, then wane west to east in similar fashion upon its departure Sunday.

The models have more or less established a near certain track to our south, and forecast rainfall amounts by and large have consistently run in the 1-2" range. Probabilistic NBM output suggests all will receive at least an inch (60-80% chance) and some may well reach or exceed 2" (20-40% chance). While these higher amounts result in us being placed within WPC's axis of MRGL-SLGT risk of flooding, most of the rainfall should be spread out over a 48 hour period or so, and as a result, we anticipate little more than isolated flooding issues, if there are any at all. The main impact may ultimately turn out to be a net positive via at least some alleviation of our ongoing D0-D2 drought conditions.

After the system's passage, we continue the above normal temperature regime next week as we see daily highs reach the 60s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, when there is a 40-70% chance for a 70F reading or better. At least the first half of the week looks dry. After that, the member signals vary, but offer the suggestive potential for a resumption of rain chances some time toward the back half of the week/into the following weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Satellite trends support time/height cross sections for our terminals seeing a slow/steady increase in high level bases with time. By late tonight into the planning phase hours of the forecast tmrw morning, anticipate light southeast to south winds to establish, with mid to high level bases offering BKN-OVC VFR CIGS. A small chance of rain enters the forecast west-to- east with the nearing of the system as bases lower, confined to KCGI for this package writing.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.