textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-60%) are forecast through next weekend. Stronger afternoon storms are possible early in the week; however, severe chances remain less than 5% through Wednesday. Somewhat greater severe probabilities (5- 15%) may creep into the Quad State area later Thursday into Friday. Any storm will be capable of producing localized flooding.

- Patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight into Tuesday morning. Locally dense fog will be possible with visibilities dropping to or below 1/4 mile.

- High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s through Wednesday, which is at or slightly below normal. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) Thursday and possibly Friday will likely yield heat index values above 100. Temperatures will cool down again for next weekend, into the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An upper-level trough will linger overhead through much of the week. This will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm activity, largely during the peak afternoon heating each day. The overall severe weather risk is expected to be limited; however, pulse-type thunderstorms (typical summer thunderstorms) do have the potential to produce localized damaging winds. Overall flow in the atmosphere is expected to be too light (less than 20kts) to have much in the way of organized strong to severe storms. There will be plenty of moisture around, leading to very heavy downpours under any of the thunderstorms each day and possibly localized flooding with the slow- moving nature of the storms.

The flow will flatten a bit toward the end of the week, allowing temperatures to warm and winds to increased a bit. In fact, shear increases closer to 20-30kts for Thursday into Friday, which will be enough to give the Quad State a little better organized severe weather threat. Damaging winds and large hail currently look to be the main threats from those storms along with heavy rainfall. The flatter flow will allow temperatures to warm up again, into the low 90s. The combination of warmer temperatures and increased humidity, will allow heat index values to exceed 100 degrees Thursday and possibly Friday afternoon.

Over the weekend, upper-level troughing will slide overhead once again, allowing for a bit cooler temperatures and scattered afternoon showers and storms (30-60% chance). Flow is expected to decrease once again (20kts or less), so isolated severe afternoon thunderstorms will be the main threat again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The main concerns with this TAF issuance will be thunderstorm potential this afternoon and fog potential overnight into Tuesday morning. Afternoon thunderstorms may pop up at any point this afternoon, so opted to stick with a PROB30 group for most of the TAF sites as confidence in exact timing and coverage remains low. Ground fog may form overnight (similar to last night), resulting in reduced visibilities. The greatest chance of this will be where heavy rain falls this afternoon. Improving conditions can be expected by mid Tuesday morning before additional storms develop Tuesday afternoon (just beyond the end of this TAF issuance.)

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.