textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms (20-30% chance) are possible this afternoon and early evening. The most likely area for severe storm development will be south of our area, but it can't be completely ruled out in southern portions of southeast MO.

- Drier air with lower humidity (dew points only in the 50s) works into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a lingering influence continuing into late week. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be slightly below normal.

- While rain chances (20-30%) return Friday night into Saturday, greater chances (40-60%) hold off until next Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels also spike upwards again with a 70-80% chance at dew points exceeding 70 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

In the wake of a morning MCS, our region is well worked over and seems unlikely to recover enough for much in the way of additional storm development. Visible satellite shows a well defined cu field from south central MO into northeast AR, which is where convection is likely to generate and gradually drift southward. Recent runs of the HRRR depict this well. This corridor is still close enough that we can't completely rule out some development in southern portions of southeast MO mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile, additional development may occur across the Wabash Valley and points north as the leading edge of drier air pushes southwest from central IL/IN. Any convection up that way likely wouldn't be severe though.

If any convection does manage to develop this afternoon it would likely dissipate by sunset or so, leaving behind a dry forecast overnight. Surface high pressure sinking south across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will filter in lower humidity with dew points falling through the 50s on Tuesday. Heck, LREF guidance even has roughly a 50-70% chance at dew points falling below 50 in the Evansville Tri-State region! This refreshing airmass remains in place through late week. Although we may see a bit of an uptick by Thursday and Friday (dew points around 60 again) as southerly flow kicks back in with the surface high centered more across the central Appalachians.

A northern stream shortwave moves from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, with the main boundary likely staying north of our cwa. However, we might see a glancing blow across our northern counties Friday night into Saturday (20-30% rain chances return). At the same time, a southern stream wave ejects northeast into the Southern Plains this weekend with moisture surging back towards our area by Saturday afternoon which could induce some convection. This seems more likely to hold off until Saturday night or Sunday though as the main wave gets closer. Dew points will likely exceed 70 degrees again by Sunday into early next week. LREF probabilities even have a 40% chance at reaching 75 degrees by next Mon/Tues. Thus this will keep pretty decent rain chances in place as the upper wave approaches and makes passage.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Morning convection has exited the region, aside from some lingering shower activity spinning across our northeastern counties. Lingering low level moisture is resulting in SCT-BKN low MVFR cigs (even briefly IFR), which may continue into the afternoon. Guidance isn't handling this well so will need to monitor. For now think improvement to VFR is likely by mid afternoon. Can't rule out some redevelopment late afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to include in any terminals. Winds become northeasterly overnight and increase tomorrow as surface high pressure builds in. Some gusts of 15-18 kts are possible by late Tuesday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.