textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm will impact the entire region this morning through Sunday afternoon. Heavy snowfall mixed with sleet and freezing rain will make travel nearly impossible. There is a 70-80% chance of exceeding 8 inches of snow with 7-11 inches forecast on average. Where sleet/freezing rain is more likely across southeast portions of the Quad State, there is a 30-40% chance of ice accretion exceeding one tenth of an inch.

- Sub-freezing temperatures with intervals of dangerous cold wind chills are now occurring this morning and will continue through all of next week. The most dangerous cold weather impacts will occur Monday morning and Tuesday morning when wind chills values between -10 to -20 are expected. There is a 60-80% chance far western portions of SEMO to rise above freezing into the mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday before additional cold air arrives for the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

1. Major Winter Storm Impacts:

A major winter storm is on track to bring record heavy snowfall to the Quad State along with a mix of sleet and freezing rain across the southeastern half. The right entrance region associated with a 160+ kt jet max at 250 mb in the northern branch is now approaching the FA with increasing upper level divergence. At the sfc, low pressure is developing down in Texas and will move northeast across Alabama on Sunday. Due to the very dry air in the column with dewpoints around -10C this morning, it will take some time for the initial WAA at 700 mb to saturate the column as the isentropic lift and FGEN does not ramp up until this afternoon.

Have adjust the onset slower as light snow will first begin in southeast Missouri this morning and spread northeast towards southwest Indiana by the afternoon, covering the entire FA. As a warm nose aloft begins to advect north, model soundings show a deep isothermal layer between -2 to -5C late this afternoon that will support heavier snowfall rates that will be capable of exceeding 1" per hour. The first round of snowfall results in 3-6 inches by this evening with lower amounts around 2-4 inches across the north where it will take longer for snow to begin.

The lull in precipitation this evening has trended shorter and may only last for 3-4 hours before the intensity increases again. Due to the lack of FGEN and saturation in the DGZ, a warm nose between 800-750mb is able to rise above 0C, allowing for a mix of snow/sleet to reach southeastern portions of the FA during the overnight hours. A 50/50 blend of the NBM/RAP for the WxType grids brings the mix line right along the Ohio River near Paducah, KY for a few hours. The one caveat is down near Hopkinsville KY, where a deeper warm nose will support some freezing rain with a 30-40% of ice accretion exceeding one tenth of an inch.

As synoptic lift increases again Sunday morning with the left exit region of another jet max over the lower Mississippi Valley, an increase in cyclogenesis to the southeast will cause mixed precipitation to transition back to all snow. Model soundings again support a healthy isothermal layer that will favor aggregation as frontogenetic forcing intensifies due to a rapid increase in CAA. This will support another heavier burst of snow before tapering off to lingering snow showers in the afternoon. The deterministic forecast calls for a widespread 6-11 inches of snowfall using the aformentioned NBM/RAP blend for SLRs. The probability of locally higher amounts over a foot increases towards Evansville, IN while areas that experience a mix of sleet/freezing rain will be closer to 5-8 inches. Probabilities remain above 70-80% to exceed 8 inches of snow along an axis from Evansville, IN to Cape Girardeau, MO.

While the 50/50 blend leans towards the HRRR/CMC/ECMWF in this forecast package due to strong model ensemble support that has been fairly consistent (increases snowfall totals above the NBM), a 1-2C difference in the warm nose will have major implications on accumulations and P-Type in either direction. This forecast however takes into consideration that the evening lull will be shorter in duration, which would favor dynamic cooling overcoming the mixing at a faster rate. Regardless, expect travel to become nearly impossible for most of the weekend, with impacts likely lingering into Monday.

2. Dangerous Cold Weather Impacts:

Arctic air is currently in place across the FA this morning with wind chills around 10 below zero. While wind chills will rise above advisory criteria by this afternoon, the snowpack following the winter storm will set the stage for even more dangerously cold wind chills Monday morning and Tuesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning will eventually be needed for most of the FA as wind chills between -10 to -20 are now progged by the NBM each morning.

In the wake of a cold front for the latter half of the week as an upper level troughing regime prevails, there is a 60-80% probability of far western portions of SEMO rising above freezing into the mid 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday while the rest of the FA remains below freezing. As a ridge of high pressure builds south late week, additional cold weather headlines may eventually be needed with wind chills falling below zero once again. Overall, sub-freezing temperatures combined with intervals of dangerous wind chills will certainly make for a very unpleasant week as temperatures remain well below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Conditions will deteriorate as snow spreads northeast across the region through the day. Moderate to heavy snow is expected in the mid to late afternoon, with the heaviest snow expected at KPAH. IFR snow will continue through the evening, but KCGI may see a brief period of MVFR visibilities in the late evening. Kept ceilings at MVFR levels in the snow, but IFR cannot be ruled out in the evening. North northeast winds will gust 15-20kts for much of the period. A few higher gusts are possible at KCGI and KPAH over the first half of the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>094. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST /2 PM EST/ this afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for KYZ001>022. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.