textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be colder the next two days, and after a brief warm-up Friday it will be chilly again on Saturday. Dry weather is currently forecast through the weekend.

- There is an increasing signal for warmer than normal temperatures starting Sunday and continuing through much of next week. Latest guidance suggests a high likelihood (70-90% chance) of temperatures in the 50s most days, and even a 40-60% chance at highs reaching 60 degrees several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Broad toughing will prevail across the Eastern half of the CONUS through Saturday. This will place our region in northwest flow aloft, and result in primarily dry weather through the coming weekend. However, we can't completely rule out some light rain or snow occurring at some point Thursday or Friday. Most guidance has Thursday dry, but the ECMWF has been hinting at some light snow pivoting south through the area during the afternoon associated with vort energy sinking south out of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley. The most likely solution is any precipitation with this wave to remain northeast of us, but can't rule out the ECMWF being right. Then another wave dives southeast from the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio Valley on Friday, dragging a cold front through our region during the afternoon. The main energy will remain northeast of our cwa and the most likely solution is for a dry frontal passage for us, but again wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with some light rain. Temps would likely support all liquid with this wave given warmer temperatures on Friday.

500mb heights will begin to rise over the weekend. So after a chilly day on Saturday (due to northeasterly surface flow in place), we should rebound nicely on Sunday with winds turning around to more of a southerly direction again. NBM has a greater than 50% chance at temperatures reaching 50 across southeast MO, western KY, and far southern IL on Sunday, and even a 40-50% chance at highs reaching 60 in the Ozark Foothills.

Next week continues to look mild with above normal temperatures likely. The question is how warm will we get and how many frontal passages will we see that result in a couple of cooler days sandwiched in between the warmer days. Latest NBM guidance has a roughly a 70-90% at temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Feb 9-12 and a 40-60% chance for highs reaching 60 the 10th through 12th. Probably will see at least one or two chances for precipitation next week, but models vary on timing and placement so for now we just have some slight PoPs in place for Tues/Wed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1040 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected at OWB/EVV this afternoon with a broken to overcast ceilings around 2500ft. The remaining TAF sites could see scattered clouds around 3000 ft this afternoon. Otherwise, good flying conditions expected through this TAF issuance with generally light winds.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.