textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- More showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall rates may lead to further flash flooding today into tonight.

- A risk for a few strong to severe storms is possible this afternoon.

- Sunday onward brings a major heat wave with a pattern shift. Heat indices are expected to be in the 105 to 110 degree range next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

We continue to monitor the heavy rainfall/flooding threat today along with the potential for strong to severe storms. Antecedent conditions are favorable for flooding thanks to repeated rains over the past few days. Flash flood guidance numbers are very low across many locations especially the SWIN area, and Cape Girardeau Missouri. Currently, a stalled frontal boundary extends from northern Oklahoma into central Missouri and southern Illinois. Broad southwest flow continues along and south of the front continuing to transport moisture poleward. The environment overnight and into today is primed for efficient rainfall processes and high rainfall rates. PW values are sitting around 2-2.2 in and sufficient mixed layer CAPE is around for shower and storm development. CAMs generally keep many locations dry through the early morning, with the exception being the I-64 areas. Eventually guidance suggests rain and thunderstorms will develop later this morning thanks to a convectively enhanced perturbation aloft.

Several hi-res models shows several inches of rainfall today, although they don't agree on where exactly, typical of the convective nature of this event. HREF LPMM also show areas of rather high rainfall amounts. The risk of training leading to considerable flash flooding still stands. Mid level flow becomes enhanced a bit today. A few strong to severe storms may be possible this afternoon.

Precipitation finally works its way east by Sunday while upper level heights rise in response to a developing mid/upper level ridge. By early next week, the Quad State will be directly beneath the upper ridge. Much warmer temperatures will result with highs in the lower 90s on Sunday, warming into the mid to upper 90s all of next week. Dewpoints in the 70s will result in several days of heat indices in the 105-110 range. Heat headlines will likely be needed at some point soon. No significant precipitation is expected Sunday onward given the strength of the upper ridge.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Confidence in TSRA coverage is a bit low through the next 6-12 hours. The general expectation is for on and off rain and storms to continue through the terminals today into tonight. Included TEMPO groups for TSRA for the late morning into the afternoon. Restrictions in cigs and visby would be expected in/near TSRA. Cig restrictions at MVN this morning are expected to gradually improve through the morning hours. Tonight, guidance suggests an additional round of showers and storms near the EVV/OWB terminals. Southwest winds up to 8 knots through the afternoon will become light tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.