textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a 15-30% chance of showers very early Wednesday morning, mainly to areas near Interstate 64 and the Evansville Tri-State area.

- The combination of breezy north winds and relative humidity values of 20-30% will lead to an elevated fire weather risk on Wednesday afternoon.

- Daily chances (25-50%) of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday and Saturday, with the highest chances along the Interstate 64 corridor. Another more widespread chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures will climb 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday through next Monday, with forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Quiet and seasonably warm weather continues today. Weak SW flow is trying to advect some slightly more humid air into the region, but robust diurnal mixing is limiting this. Late tonight into Wednesday, surface low pressure will develop over the southern Canadian Prairie provinces and move SE across the Great Lakes. A weak and moisture-starved cold front associated with this system will move into the area early Wednesday morning, bringing a small chance of light rain to our far north and northeastern counties. Given the lack of moisture and forcing, showers chances will be confined to just the 15-30% range, and and precipitation will be lucky to amount to more than a trace.

On Wednesday, while temperatures will remain near normal values, much drier air will filter into the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows RH values falling to 20-30% across much of the area, with steady N winds around 10-15 mph. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble has 50-80% probabilities of RH values falling under 20% in the Ozark Foothills. Given the ongoing drought conditions, will continue to message the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon in the HWO. The widespread green up conditions will limit the risk for substantial wildfire development.

Thursday through next weekend will see the persist H5 ridging over the western CONUS shift eastward towards the Midwest. This will bring a warming trend in both temperature and dew point values. Temperatures will warm from the middle to upper 70s for highs on Thursday to middle to upper 80s on Friday. For this weekend into Monday, temperatures will feel like early summer, with high temperatures having good chances (40-80%) of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees. With dew point temperatures forecast to climb into the middle to upper 60s, heat index values will approach the middle to upper 90s.

By Friday, the ridging will begin to shift east of the area, and will be replaced by a more active southwest synoptic flow pattern. Weak shortwave troughs will bring a couple chances of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Compared to earlier forecasts, PoPs have trended higher, closer to 25-50%, peaking during the heat of the day. The greatest chances of precipitation look be near and north of the I-64 corridor. Given the pop up nature of the precipitation, there will will be a lot of dry hours despite the forecast. After a brief lull on Sunday, there is a better signal in the ensemble guidance on Monday for a more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (30-60%) during the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR TAFs are expected to remain. Clouds increase tonight with a chance of showers in the northeast late tonight as a cold front shifts winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Wind speeds increase tomorrow with gusts of 16-20kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.