textproduct: Paducah
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms ramp back up on Friday and continue well into next week. There will be brief dry intervals today and Saturday, while at least a 50-60% chance of rain is forecast for the rest of the next week.
- There is a high probability of at least 1-2 inches of rain by next Wednesday, with a 60-90% chance of higher amounts upwards of 3 inches. Flooding issues will remain minor at most due to the long duration of heavy rainfall.
- Unseasonably cool temperatures in the 70s trend back above normal well into the 80s by next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
A 1032 mb sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes region this morning will provide short term relief from the unsettled weather pattern with much drier conditions. The CAMs try to develop isolated thundershowers in the far southeast Kentucky Pennyrile, with a 30-40% chance of rain this afternoon progged by the NBM. The relief will not last for long as a warm front and weak area of sfc low pressure lifts north Friday morning. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be probable across the entire FA, but severe weather is unlikely due to the lack of shear and poor lapse rates. Both the GFS/ECMWF have trended drier for Saturday with only a 15-30% chance of rain on average.
The unsettled weather pattern really ramps up again Sunday through Wednesday with likely chances of showers and thunderstorms progged by the NBM each day. The signal remains weak for severe weather potential as the kinematics are very meager. Any flooding issues should also remain minor at most as heavy rainfall will be occurring over a long duration. The LREF supports a 60-90% chance of upwards 3 inches by next Wednesday with a high probability of at least 1-2 inches across the entire FA. High temperatures trend back into the lower 80s this weekend, followed by mid 80s by Wednesday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Areas of IFR cigs this morning will gradually improve to MVFR across all terminals by this afternoon. Low cigs likely persist through the day, with some model guidance hinting at the potential for a return to IFR towards the end of the TAF period. Northeast winds will be light between 5-10 kts.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.