textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- On and off chances (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday.

- Increasing heat and humidity will result in afternoon heat indices Sunday through Tuesday in the 100 to around 105 degree range.

- A little cooler and unsettled conditions return for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Models show a broad upper level trof deepening over our region over the next 24-36 hours as an upper level high becomes more entrenched over the southwestern U.S. At the surface, high pressure off the southeast coast, along with a surface boundary to our north will result in our variable winds becoming southerly tonight into Friday, helping to increase low level moisture across our region. Impulses moving along the upper trof will continue on and off chances of showers and some thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. The best chances (40-60%) late tonight and Friday will be across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, with more uniform 20-30% chances across the entire region Friday night into Saturday. Overall rainfall amounts will range from less than a tenth of an inch to a half inch, with localized higher amounts with thunderstorms.

By late in the weekend and continuing into early next week, the southwest upper ridge will migrate a little farther east, resulting in dry conditions for our region, while southerly flow at the surface will help increase temperatures and humidity. High temperatures in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame will reach the 90 to 95 degree range, and with dew points in the lower and middle 70s, afternoon heat indices will climb into the 100 to around 105 degree range. By mid week, the upper ridge will be breaking down as an upper low over eastern Canada puts the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valley regions into more of a northwest flow pattern. This will put temperatures into a downward trend along with an unsettled weather pattern. Chances of showers and thunderstorms return as early as Tuesday night, with chances increasing and lingering through at least Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Diminishing convection over south central Missouri may spark up a few showers across western SEMO through early evening - although drier conditions are the most likely outcome. TAF sites have even less of a chance to see thunder through this evening. Light winds and prevailing VFR conditions are forecast overnight. Mid-level cloud cover should reduce any fog potential through the early morning. Another round of convection appears possible tomorrow in the late morning and afternoon with the best chances for now appearing over SEMO.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.