textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- All eyes on the middle of next week, as a slight risk of severe weather returns late Tuesday into Wednesday when all severe hazards will be in play.

- Recent and forecast heavy rainfall has returned river flooding to the area. Another 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected with the mid week system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A cold front on the doorstep of the FA will soon slowly drag across the PAH FA. We are seeing the last vestiges of its band of pre-frontal showers/thunderstorms just make their departure. Having tapping into the northward surge of a wetting of the proverbial dew point tongue to a mid-upr 60s tune, the local atmosphere is now worked over, though dew points remain in the upper 50s-lower 60s. The blanket storm canopy will inhibit further growth while scattered/lingering showers/potentially thunderstorm breathe with some life a few more hours before ending as drier air draws down the column behind fropa.

The weekend finishes dry as surface high pressure ridges across the Quad State in the wake of the duly departed front, underneath a more zonal flow pattern aloft. The high soon shifts east Monday in similar fashion, and return flow southerlies establish. The NBM starts up warm advection/overrunning shower chances by as early as late Monday, as our next big system to watch takes shape in the Desert Southwest area.

All eyes have been focused on this system's evolution for awhile now, and continue to paint the mid week as our next best potential for severe weather as it begins to track this direction. The 12Z modeling is no different, but a trend to look to more of a Wednesday time frame vs Tuesday is beginning to emerge or at least hinting around. That would be excepting a more aggressive warm sector emergence Tuesday-Tuesday night, and any related storm risk thereof. Regardless, the parent storm looks to sync together with certainly highest rain chances incoming Wednesday afternoon-evening, as the broader synoptic features make their sweep across the Mississippi Valley. Preceding 15% storm risk for all severe hazards in play seems about right until the system nears in time for more modeling precision.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A cold front located near KCGI will continue southeast through the other sites in the first few hours of the forecast. No tangible convection has developed along it and we do not think it will at this point. MVFR ceilings will come in quickly behind the front and linger through the night and into the morning at most locations. There are some indications that ceilings could drop to IFR levels, but confidence is too low to go there at this time. VFR conditions with a southwest breeze are expected throughout the area by midday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.