textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy today with thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon and early evening (40-70% chance), and limited potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- High rain chances (70-90%) from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain are possible.

- Daily rain chances continue through the rest of the week and weekend (Thursday is the driest) with cooler late week highs in the 70s to near 80.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Training showers and thunderstorms continue to brush against the northern edge of the Quad State, tracking east-northeastward. Separately, scattered showers and thunderstorms have tracked northeastward through the Quad State late morning through the present and should continue the rest of the afternoon to early evening as an impulse from Texas moves through. CAMs continue to vary on development, with the HRRR eager to generate storms from the impulse, while the ARW favors a Missouri MCS early evening. Current radar presentation suggests the Missouri convection tracks near/along I-64 while the impulse tracks near the Ohio River. MLCAPE is up to 1500-2500J/kg while effective bulk shear is 20-30kts. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s are accompanied by PWs of 1.8-2.0in. A marginal risk covers much of the Quad State with a sliver of a slight in the far north, and some strong storms are likely to develop, but severe weather is more limited. A Lake Wind Advisory remains though, of the primary lakes, only Lake Barkley/Kentucky Lake have avoided the off and on showers/storms.

Models agree on an overnight MCS in Missouri weakening on approach late tonight with limited PoPs in the west Tuesday morning. Redevelopment on residual boundaries, or a new MCS, are varied across models making timing difficult. One the environment following this afternoon/evening becomes known, it will help shape model assessment of development tomorrow. More commonly in the models at the moment, a band of storms pushes eastward late Tuesday into the evening with an evening/overnight cold frontal passage. PW values remains high, with continued very warm temperatures as highs surge to the upper 80s again. Plenty of CAPE will be available but shear is even more limited than today and will be a limiting factor. A slight risk covers most of the Quad State.

When it comes to rainfall, some models produce a max along the Ohio River into SWIN with heavy development and training from the Texas sourced impulse today. Otherwise, models focus on the training showers/storms in the north that have progressed into the I-64 corridor. Heavy rainfall in either of these zones is possible today, but antecedent dry conditions will keep flooding potential limited for today. As for tomorrow, models don't tend to show much of any training but, should any occur over areas which receive decent rainfall today, flooding issues can develop.

A cold front moves through Tuesday evening resulting in much colder conditions for the rest of the workweek. Highs drop to the mid 70s to near 80 Wednesday through Friday while midweek lows drop to the 50s. Temperatures trend slowly warmer late week into the weekend.

Active weather remains in the forecast as the front stalls near enough to the Quad State Wednesday for some showers and possibly a few storms (mainly in the south). Thursday has the driest ensemble as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes but outliers exist such as the GFS which tracks a small surface low through Western Kentucky. The front is more likely to push back north Friday as better model agreement yields likely- categorical PoPs. The boundary could help with producing some strong to severe storms but confidence is low at this time. Continued upper flow from the southwest will keep rain chances in through the weekend. LREF 7-day rainfall has a 25th-75th percentile spread of 1.5-3 inches, which would help with ongoing drought.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to develop this afternoon and increase in coverage. Heavier banding is located just north of KMVN and will remain through the afternoon while, across the Quad State, showers and storms are moving in from the southwest. Locally heavy rain is possible, and lightning is likely to be a factor several hours in a row for some sites. The Kentucky Pennyrile area has the least potential for thunder. MVFR cigs are possible with storms, as are vsby reductions to MVFR or IFR. A few stronger storms are possible. Breezy winds gusting to 18-25kts today drop to around 8-10kts sustained overnight, then become breezy again tomorrow. Dry weather is forecast later tonight into tomorrow with rain beginning to re-enter the picture in the west at the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ075- 081-085. MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ100. IN...None. KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ007>009-011-012.