textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- 50-95% chances of showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with the highest chances gradually shifting from north to south by this evening.

- 20-50% chances of showers and storms will persist late tonight across southern half of our region, then on Friday across the entire PAH forecast area. Chances will linger into Friday night and Saturday, especially across southwest Indiana and west Kentucky.

- Temperatures will briefly trend downward, with seasonable readings for Friday, then values climb back to 5 to 8 degrees above normal Saturday into next week.

- 20-50% chances of showers and storms return Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Unsettled weather will continue along and ahead of slow moving cold front today and tonight. Chances by daybreak will be 75-95% across the northern two thirds of the PAH forecast area, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected across the entire PAH fa through the day. By this evening, the best chances (40-70%) will become focused across the southern half of our region, with southwest Indiana and portions of southern Illinois north of Route 13 dry late tonight. On Friday, 20-50% chances will linger across our entire area, especially in the afternoon into the evening, with the frontal boundary hanging up just south of our region and an upper trof moving over the region. The front will lift back north late Friday night, keeping things unsettled into Saturday and Saturday evening, with isolated to scattered (20-50% chances) showers and storms possible.

SPC Day 1 shows a Marginal Risk across the southeastern two- thirds of our region. The main concern with storms will continue to be damaging winds, primarily this afternoon into this evening.

The model blend keeps Sunday through Tuesday morning dry. By late Tuesday into Tuesday night, models vary on the timing and location of a cold front moving into the central U.S. For now, the model blend produces 20-50% chances of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

A big drop in temperatures can be expected today, with highs ranging from the middle 80s north to the lower 90s south. Friday will see near seasonal temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. The return of southerly winds over the weekend will result in a quick return of unseasonably warm conditions, with both highs and lows 5 to 8 degrees above normal Saturday into the first half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

While the area is experiencing a brief lull in convection, more showers with embedded thunderstorm develop overnight through most of the morning and early afternoon hours Thursday. This activity will impact all terminals, and MVN, EVV, and OWB may see some low VFR or MVFR cigs Thursday morning in addition to the precipitation. Additional convection is possible as well Thursday afternoon into the evening, mainly in SEMO and W KY. Light S-SW winds overnight will become W-NW and eventually N Thursday afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary moves south into the area.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.