textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms this morning will pose the risk for flash flooding across portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible with hail being the main concern.

- Additional strong to severe storms are possible late Friday night into Saturday morning and again on Tuesday with waves of showers and thunderstorms.

- Mild temperatures in the 70s briefly cool down into the 60s on Sunday before quickly rebounding early next week, followed by a more significant cool down towards the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Unsettled weather is ongoing this morning with heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms. The FA is now beneath the right entrance region of a 100 kt jet max at 250 mb that is providing synoptic scale lift. As a cold front begins to approach from the west, the concern is for training convection that will increase the risk for flash flooding. The 0z HREF shows the heaviest axis setting up across southern Illinois near the southern extent of the Flood Watch that remains in effect. Given PWATs between 1.25 to 1.50 inches, runoff on roadways and poor drainage in low-lying areas is probable with clusters of convection that will be capable of causing torrential downpours.

Isolated strong to severe storms also remain possible with hail being the main concern given 1000 to 1300 J/kg of MUCAPE, 50 kts of effective bulk shear, and 6.5 to 7.0 C/km lapse rates. One reason for the slight uptick previously was due to the subtle increase in the LLJ. With that said, additional scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially over western Kentucky. While the better lift/forcing associated with the jet and a 500 mb vort max begins to lift northeast after 18z, a stronger storm cannot be ruled out due to sfc convergence associated with the cold front combined with 700 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of effective bulk shear. However, SPC maintains general thunder in their D1 convective outlook as the better kinematics will no longer be in place over the FA.

Drier conditions return on Friday as the aformentioned front lifts back north. While today will be cooler in the lower 70s due to the increase in cloud cover, breaks of sun on Friday will allow for highs in the upper 70s to near 80. In fact, there is a 70-90% chance portions of western Kentucky reach 80 degrees again! Given an influx of WAA with 850 mb temps rising to 13C, would not be surprised to see temperatures overachieve a bit compared to the the deterministic NBM forecast with BUFKIT model soundings supporting deep mixing in the boundary layer. Unfortunately, the unseasonably warm temperatures will mean another risk for some severe storms late Friday night into Saturday morning as the cold front sags back south. Convection will be waning as storms push southeast from central Missouri into the FA, with the greatest area of concern focused west of the Mississippi/Ohio where SPC maintains a marginal risk (slight risk now clips Carter County) in their D2 convective outlook. Damaging winds and a isolated brief spin up tornado is the main concern.

After fropa on Saturday, a break in the active weather pattern with drier conditions moves in for the latter half of the weekend. High temperatures trend into the low to mid 60s on Sunday, but still remain above normal for this time of year. However, temperatures quickly rebound back into the 70s next week as the flow aloft turns more zonal. A more potent shortwave trough eventually approaches the FA Tuesday into Wednesday with another round of thunderstorms. The ML guidance supports multiple outcomes that may pose a greater risk for some severe weather on Tuesday, but there remains uncertainty in the timing and placement within the warm sector regime.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 418 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs will impact all terminals today with clusters of thunderstorms turning more widely scattered this afternoon across the east. Pockets of brief IFR cigs cannot be ruled out with a 40% chance peaking across the northern terminals. Heavy downpours will also be capable of causing IFR/MVFR vsby reductions. All terminals return to VFR by this evening as low clouds scatter out. Southerly winds between 5-10 kts turn light & variable tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch until noon CST today for ILZ075>078-080>087. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch until noon CST /1 PM EST/ today for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Flood Watch until noon CST today for KYZ014-018-019.