textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous high and warm minimum temperature records will be broken through the weekend. The warmest day will likely be this afternoon, when there is a 70-95 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees everywhere outside of the Pennyrile and southwest IN. - A strong cold front will bring a 80 to 90 percent chance of rain and 15 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening. A few strong storms can't be ruled out.

- A brief blast of cold air will arrive Sunday night into early next week. There is only about a 30-40 percent chance that temperatures warm above freezing on Monday across the entire area and a 60-70 percent chance that wind chill values fall into the single digits above zero in southern IL and southwest IN!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Temperatures will be quite warm through the weekend as warm/southerly flow remains in place across the area and an upper- level ridge axis lingers overhead. There's a good chance that record high temperatures will be broken through at least Friday with a 70- 95 percent percent chance of high temperatures reaching or exceeding 70 degrees today away from the Pennyrile and southwest IN. For a comparison, many of the record highs at the climate sites are in the low 70s. Record warm overnight low records are also likely to be broken.

The next chance for widespread rain (80-90 percent chance) will be Sunday into Sunday evening as a strong cold front pushes through the area from the west. Instability still looks to be weak with this system. The probabilities of surface based instability greater than or equal to 200 J/kg are only around 20-30 percent over mainly SEMO into southern IL. That is largely a result of poor mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. The system is dynamic with 0-6km shear values progged to be around 40-50kts out of the west and 0-3km shear values around 30-40kts out of the west. That would put the shear vectors orthogonal to the line of strongly forced showers/few storms. Again, not looking like a high-end severe threat, but it is possible that a few damaging wind gusts could occur and maybe a brief/weak spin up tornado Sunday afternoon/evening. The higher shear/low instability nature of the system has led SPC to outlook the area in a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts. Outside of any showers/storms, winds may be quite gusty as the pressure gradient tightens and cold air advection increases into the area. In fact, gusts could exceed 30 mph Sunday night into Monday morning (about a 30-40 percent chance) in SEMO into southern IL. Most locations will see around a half inch of rainfall from this system. As colder air quickly filters in on the back side of the cold front, a brief change over to snow showers is possible late Sunday night into Monday morning; however, no travel impacts are expected.

A brief shot of colder air is set to arrive for Monday into Tuesday with highs struggling to get above freezing. In fact, there is only about a 30-40 percent chance that temperatures warm above freezing during the day Monday and only slightly better chances for Tuesday (around 50-60 percent). Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper teens to around 20. There is a good chance (60-70 percent chance) that wind chill values will drop into the upper single digits above zero Monday night into Tuesday morning, mainly in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

High temperatures will warm to near or above freezing for Wednesday into Thursday with mainly dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Straggling moisture and lift is keeping a low MVFR cloud deck in place. That should slowly scour from west to east but it will probably take a while and may not get across the entire region before sunset. Clearing skies tonight will make fog a factor once again, and southerly flow just off the surface looks to build in another low MVFR deck through Saturday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.