textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Record-setting warmth will continue today, with daily and monthly record high temperatures possible.

- A cold front will bring scattered to numerous (25-60% coverage) thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

- After a brief cooldown for the first half of next week, near- record warmth will return Thursday...followed by a return shower and thunderstorm chances (25-50%) Thursday night into Friday and another cooldown.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Unprecedented March warmth will continue for one more day today, with high temperatures forecast to reach the middle 80s to lower 90s in most locations. Parts of the Ozark Foothills will reach the middle 90s. Most climate sites will break daily records high temperatures, and some could tie or exceed monthly records for March. This heat remains driven by the extreme ridging in the southwest CONUS, which has expanded eastward across the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will be around 19-22C through the day, which again is well outside the typical climatology for this time of year. Very strong mixing will allow for gusty SW winds to develop as well, with gusts of 20-30 kts expected from late this morning through this afternoon.

This mini-heatwave will come to an end tonight as a potent cold front moves through the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop near and east of the Mississippi River and march to the S and SE. Storm coverage remains a source of uncertainty, as a strong capping inversion will be in place across the region. Latest guidance from the 00z CAMs shows the cap trying to erode, but not fully. The location with the best chances of seeing the cap eroding with the greatest storm coverage will be the EVV Tri-State region. Following the passage of the cold front, winds will shift to the N and remain gusty through into the overnight hours early Monday morning.

If storms can develop and organize through the capping inversion, they will be in an environment with straight hodographs and plentiful MUCAPE and DCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates will be quite steep as well, around 7-8C. This will result in both a risk for damaging wind gusts from downbursts/microbursts and large hail. The elevated nature of these storms should preclude a tornado risk. Right now, the main severe risk will be between 23z-04z this evening. By 06z Monday, the front will be clear of the region, with any precipitation chances ending by the predawn hours Monday morning.

Following the passage of the cold front, Canadian high pressure will bring a major cooldown back to typical late March temperatures as it sags into the Midwest from Monday through Wednesday. As the surface high shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will increase, bringing another warmup on Thursday. Model guidance has trended warmer with temperatures during this period, and record highs could be challenged yet again.

Another cold front associated with a progged surface low passing through the Great Lakes looks to bring another chance (25-50%) of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night into Friday. Following the passage of this front, temperatures will again cool back to near or slightly below normal temperatures Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Breezy W-SW winds (sustained at 10-14 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts) and increasing high cirrus cloud cover will precede the passage of a cold front this evening. Isolated to scattered convection is possible between roughly 22-06z, with the greatest storm coverage near MVN, EVV, and OWB. Storms will be isolated near CGI and PAH.

Cloud bases and vsbys will stay VFR for the most part outside of thunderstorm activity. Winds will quickly switch to the N following the frontal passage, between roughly 23-04z from N to S, sustained at 12-18 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts through the rest of the forecast period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.