textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be on somewhat of a roller coaster ride through the weekend, with warmer, but somewhat blustery conditions Friday, much cooler temperatures Saturday, then warming well above normal for Sunday.

- Say goodbye to the snow! Persistent south winds will bring a major warming trend for the first half of the next week. There is a 20-30% chance of the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri State area not reaching 50 degrees Monday and Tuesday, elsewhere 50 degrees is a near certainty both days. Also, there is greater than an 80% chance of lows remaining above freezing Monday night and Tuesday night throughout the area.

- Our next chance of precipitation will be Tuesday night and Wednesday when there is a 20-40% chance of mainly light rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Strong northwest flow aloft will continue Friday, then relax over the weekend and become zonal for the first part of next week. A clipper system will dive into the Ohio Valley early Friday and that will bring a cold front through the Quad State in the morning. The cold advection will hold temperatures near normal levels over much of the region Friday, but the Ozark Foothills could see temperatures still climb up near 60 degrees. The subsequent surface high will settle over the region Saturday, resulting highs in the 30s, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal. South winds will return on Sunday, leading to temperatures back up to near normal levels.

The south winds will persist through the first half of next week, which along with a very low amplitude upper ridge, will lead to a very mild stretch of weather. The 12Z ensembles indicate a near 100% chance of much of the Quad State reaching 50 degrees Monday and Tuesday, and having lows Monday night and Tuesday night above freezing. Only the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri State are in danger of not reaching 50 or falling below freezing through this period. Even there, the chance is roughly 70-80% to reach 50 and stay above freezing. The 12Z GEFS has a 20% chance of Poplar Bluff and Doniphan reaching 70 on Tuesday. It is going to be quite mild and that should get rid of most of the remaining snow pack, except for the large piles. A weakening upper-level disturbance will move along the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday, while a northern stream upper low settles near Lake Superior. The NBM has a general 40% chance of mainly light rain throughout the Quad State near and ahead of a cold frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday. The NBM is generating around a quarter inch of rain along I-64 with most of the region to the south of there seeing closer to a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECENS and GEFS show the opposite pattern across the Quad State, with the best chances and greatest rainfall over the southern half of the region. Obviously, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the details at this point. However, the general story is that we have a chance of mainly light rain with no chance of thunder or wintry precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Clearer conditions are projected tonight with some vsby reductions possible in the south, particularly at climatologically favored locations. Light winds overnight become breezy out of the northwest during the day. LLWS is possible ahead of the wind shift. MVFR cigs move in from the northwest, at least for the northeastern two-thirds of the Quad State.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.