textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix will impact the region Monday evening into Tuesday morning. A winter weather advisory is in effect for the entire quad state for snow, sleet, freezing rain and freezing drizzle that may lead to hazardous travel conditions early tomorrow morning.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire week with lows each night falling well into the 20s and even upper teens in some locations.

- Dry weather will return for the middle of the week, followed by another chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Radar shows two areas of precip over the CWA, one over Jefferson and Perry Counties in Illinois where light snow/sleet is being reported and a smaller more convective looking area over Perryville to Poplar Bluff where light sleet and snow are also being reported. These are associated with the leading edge of stronger low-level warm air advection, but should be relatively short lived before the broader ascent arrives by 4-6 pm.

Satellite/Obs/Short-term guidance are starting to link in on WAA related lift overspreading the area late this afternoon with precip accompanying it, a little faster than originally thought. Surface temperatures are above freezing over most of western Kentucky but the wet-bulb temperature is close to freezing, so the addition of the extra lift/moisture should result in temperatures falling near freezing after sunset. This should result in rain changing over to sleet/freezing rain in the evening over WKY with areas to the northwest a little more snow focused. The jet-level DCVA ascent moves in by 9-10 pm or so and merges with the WAA ascent before sweeping all the precip out of the area along and ahead of a cold front.

I think in the southern Pennyrile if temps get low enough, and it looks like they will, we could see up to 0.10" of ice accretion. Over the northwestern part of the CWA the DCVA ascent should result in 1 to 2 inches of snow. In between I am concerned that dry slotting will limit precip amounts however the low level RH is high enough for freezing drizzle regardless. This coupled with periods of freezing rain, sleet and light snow would be capable of creating quite a travel mess tonight and early tomorrow. After collaborating with neighbors this morning went with a more aggressive CWA-wide winter weather advisory as freezing drizzle can be significantly impactful to travel, even in small amounts.

A cold front works through the area in the morning, which may also spark up some drizzle amid the colder temperatures before low-layer RH drops by 9 to 10 am. Cold conditions then follow for the next several days. There are small precip chances again Thursday night and possibly again Sunday but these are associated with very modest forcing. The Thursday event is associated with a polar airmass sweeping a cold front in ahead of a 1032 mb surface ridge from the Great Lakes which will result in temperatures around 20 degrees below seasonal norms for Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

IFR or lower snow will set in early this evening over the northern sites and end in the overnight hours. Some sleet could mix in early on at KEVV and KOWB. Ceilings will eventually drop to IFR levels and then slowly lift to MVFR through the day. Clearing is possible at KMVN in the last hour or two of the forecast.

KCGI and KPAH will see a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow with MVFR visibilities set in this evening. Some IFR snow is expected before the precipitation ends in the late evening and early into the overnight. Ceilings are expected to stay at MVFR levels through the day. Clearing may reach KCGI before the end of the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ075>078- 080>086-088>090-092>094. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ087-091. MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ001>006. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ007>022.