textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-50% chance of intermittent showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday, with the greatest risk of storms peaking this evening.

- An increase in heat and humidity over the weekend will likely result in 4 consecutive days of heat index values exceeding 100 to around 105 degrees.

- After a brief period of dry conditions Sunday into Monday, unsettled weather returns for the middle of the week along with near to slightly below normal temperatures in the latter half.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A broad upper level trough with embedded shortwaves will become a bit more amplified though this evening, providing modest forcing for a 20-50% chance of intermittent showers and thunderstorms. The greatest risk peaks this evening, especially across portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri when storms capable of causing heavy downpours and lightning will be possible. Despite weak shear, cannot rule out a stray strong gusty storm given DCAPE over 1000 J/kg combined with 7.5-8.0 C/km 0-3km lapse rates and a 30-40K theta-e difference. Low rain chances shift east of the Mississippi and linger through most of Saturday before diminishing. Total rainfall between a tenth of an inch to a half inch remains progged with locally higher amounts.

As an upper level ridge builds more east over the weekend, the heat and humidity will be on the increase. Daily high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will potentially yield 4 consecutive days of heat index values rising above 100 to around 105 degrees, and may eventually require a Heat Advisory in the future. A few locations may even reach 100 today, but the potential for convection and cloud debris will likely keep this too limited to warrant any headlines for the duration criteria. While a brief lull in the unsettled weather will occur Sunday into Monday with tranquil conditions, the ridge quickly breaks down towards the middle of the week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms making a return beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures eventually trend near to slightly below normal in the latter half of the week as a cold front sweeps through.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Scattered mid-level cu around 5-6 kft AGL will develop later today with diurnal heating. A weak disturbance will bring a PROB30 for isolated to scattered convection coverage this afternoon into the evening. Confidence is slightly better in southeast Missouri including KCGI in seeing a storm, but not enough for TEMPO mention. High-level clouds thicken tonight and should help to mitigate ground fog again for most of the region.

Winds today will be south around 7-10 kts, diminishing below 5 kts after sunset.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.