textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A large band of showers and thunderstorms will gradually progress eastward across the Quad State today into this evening. Rainfall amounts will average 0.5-1.0", with some isolated higher amounts, perhaps up to 1.5", over southeast Missouri, the Purchase Area and adjacent portions of southern Illinois.

- A cold frontal passage along with the widespread clouds and rain will lead to falling temperatures today. High temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster ride through Wednesday, while lows will generally be at or below normal with readings in the mid and upper 30s possible over portions of the Quad State in the early morning hours Monday through Wednesday.

- A warm up to well above normal temperatures is expected Wednesday through next Saturday. High temperatures in the 70s or higher are expected throughout the Quad State.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over southeast Missouri very early this morning. This is well ahead of a weakening QLCS over southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. The MUCAPE over southeast Missouri is around 500J/kg with little shear to organize updrafts. This current round of convection may further limit the instability available for the western line as it arrives toward daybreak. The bottom line is that confidence in any severe weather or heavy rainfall before sunrise is very low.

If there is any at least filtered sunshine ahead of the precipitation over west Kentucky later this morning, somewhat better instability could develop there, but the shear will remain weak. SPC has our entire area in a Marginal Risk of severe today mainly concerned about very isolated damaging wind events. Those would be most likely on the leading edge of the convection late this morning and early this afternoon, but the overall chance of seeing any severe weather today is very low.

Rainfall amounts continue to trend downward, especially over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Given the current band of rainfall over southeast Missouri the chance of that region receiving an inch or more of rainfall are 70% or greater. Otherwise, amounts may be closer to a half inch over much of west Kentucky and southwest Indiana, which is supported by the 00Z GEFS which has a 50% or less chance of a half inch or more in those areas. The 00Z ECENS is more bullish for at least a half inch throughout the Quad State.

The cold front will send temperatures tumbling through the 60s today, and will lead to below normal temperatures tonight through Sunday night. A brief period of west winds on Monday will allow temperatures to climb back to near normal levels, before a reinforcing shot of cool high pressure arrives for Monday night through Tuesday night. Tuesday will be the coolest day with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Low temperatures will drop into the 30s over portions of the region Sunday night through Tuesday night, and dewpoints early Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s. If winds drop out a light freeze would be a possibility. The pressure gradient will likely be sufficient to prevent this from happening. The 00Z GEFS and ECENS have virtually no chance of a freeze at any point early next week.

The 00Z operational GFS has a nice swatch of QPF across the Quad State Wednesday through Thursday. This appears to be a serious outlier, as its own ensembles have only a 10-20% chance of any precipitation in this period. The NBM remains dry in this period, but it does continue a trend of a perpetual Day 8 PoP. It has done this for at least 3 mornings in a row.

South winds will return on Wednesday, and a ridge of high pressure aloft will build northwest over the region over the last half of the work week. This will lead to another warm stretch from Wednesday through next Saturday. The ECENS indicates that 70s are a near certainty throughout the region Thursday through Saturday.

There are some decent signals that next weekend may end up rather wet. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The convection and cold frontal passage have sped up by a couple of hours. The cold front should reach KMVN and KCGI by 15Z, and finally KOWB by 20Z. The strongest convection should be in the few hours before the front arrives, with stratiform rain for several hours behind the front. Ceilings should quickly go to MVFR levels this morning, and a period of IFR ceilings is possible, as well. Confined thunder to KMVN and KCGI, but it cannot be ruled out farther east.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.