textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold frontal passage this evening will usher very cool air into the Quad State for this weekend. Most locations will see frost development, especially Sunday morning, and some sheltered locations could experience a light freeze.

- Dry conditions will persist through much of next week. Lows through the next 7 days will be in the 30s, while highs will be in the 50s this weekend, and then warm up into the 60s early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Occasionally gusty southwest winds this afternoon have allowed temperatures to warm up more than expected. Enjoy, because a cold front will pass this evening, and temperatures will drop. Clouds and cold advection will keep temperatures in the 50s Friday, then as surface high pressure settles overhead, clear and calm conditions will allow temperatures to plunge into the 30s areawide Friday night/Saturday morning. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s will be the norm through the weekend according to this NBM forecast.

The main concern over the weekend will be frost and freeze potential each night. Calm winds are expected over the Ozark Foothills and much of southern Illinois Friday night and that will lead to the potential for temperatures to fall below freezing and possibly even into the upper 20s in some valleys. Elsewhere across the Quad State, temperatures should drop to 35 degrees or less and frost formation is likely. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be the coldest night throughout the region with most locations dropping to or just below the freezing mark and widespread frost formation expected. Dewpoints come up into the middle 30s for Sunday night, so while temperatures may drop into the middle 30s with some frost potential, a freeze is not expected.

As for confidence levels and potential headlines, the NBM seems to be well to the cold side of guidance, and has 30-90% chances of reaching 32 degrees or below Friday night in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, with similar chances throughout the Quad State Saturday night. The NBM has a less than 10% chance of a hard freeze Saturday night, and no chance otherwise. At this time, frost seems to be the more confident and widespread concern, so would be leaning toward a Frost Advisory Friday night and Saturday night throughout the region to be issued either tonight or Friday morning. However, if temperature guidance trends even lower, a Freeze Warning may be warranted.

Temperatures are expected to warm up some next week, as heights aloft rise. This will lead to high temperatures climbing into the 60s possibly Sunday and then into next week, but low temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A cold front will move through the region this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to eventually develop over all sites overnight into Friday morning. The ceilings may clear KMVN by the end of the period, but elsewhere they will linger through 18Z Friday. Ahead of the front, west southwest winds will gust 15-20kts at times this afternoon, and behind it, similar northwest winds will develop with mixing in the morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.