textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle and light rain will gradually diminish across the region through Monday morning, but overcast conditions and steady temperatures in the middle to upper 50s will continue.

- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive over the Ozark Foothills Tuesday morning, then move slowly eastward across the entire region and eventually exit to the east by midday Wednesday. Forecast rainfall totals over most of the region are in the 1 to 2 inch range.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. There is a 50-90% chance of max wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Cloudy, mild, and wet conditions will continue this afternoon as a large area of light rain and drizzle gradually spreads north across the region. The precipitation will gradually diminish tonight into Monday, but the low overcast conditions are likely to linger through at least Monday. The upside is that temperatures will be fairly steady in the mid to upper 50s tonight which is 10-15 degrees above normal.

Our next storm system will impact the Quad State Tuesday through Wednesday as a north/south oriented band of showers moves slowly eastward across the region ahead of a cold front. Elevated instability remains very limited and focused more over southeast Missouri early on Tuesday, but as the band moves east away from the upper trough, any thunder should diminish. Rainfall amounts remain in the 1" to 2" range with the highest amounts expected in the south and west and the least in the northeast. The NBM has a 70-90% chance of at least 1" of rainfall over most of the region, with the exception being southwest Indiana where the chance is only 50%. The probability of 2" is very low at this time. Precipitable water values 200-300% of normal or near the 99th percentile of climatology, coupled with a slow moving band or rain, certainly creates a concern for heavy rainfall, and some minor flooding issues cannot be ruled out mainly Tuesday and Tuesday night. If the upper system were to trend farther south, closer to the Quad State, the increased instability could result in more of a heavy rainfall and flooding threat, and possibly even a severe storm threat. We will keep an eye on it.

Another aspect of the Tuesday storm system will be strong south winds. It looks like the strongest winds will be from the bootheel region north northeast through Carbondale and Mt Vernon Illinois, and they may be focused in the morning. The NBM which tends to underperform on windy days only has a 20-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but the 00Z NAEFS/ECENS have a 50-90% chance throughout the area. The 12Z REFS, however, has a 90% chance of reaching 30 mph over the entire area, and a 30-50% chance of reaching 40 mph over the favored portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. We will continue to monitor the situation for a potential Wind Advisory for some portion of the region Tuesday.

Behind the cold front, the entire region should be dry by Wednesday night, and temperatures should drop to near normal for Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR/LIFR drizzle will linger through the entire period at KCGI and KPAH. KPAH could see some brief periods of MVFR this afternoon. The drizzle will spread north over the other sites early this afternoon. At KMVN the drizzle may not last much past this afternoon, but IFR ceilings are expected to linger well into the morning. KEVV and KOWB will see occasional drizzle/light rain through daybreak. At this time, the prevailing category should be MVFR, with some brief periods of IFR possible. Winds will be from the southeast at or below 10kts throughout the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.