textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm (20-40% chance) may linger today before drier air gradually builds in from northwest to southeast through the afternoon.

- Monday and Tuesday will be cooler and far less humid with dew points remaining below 60 degrees. A mid-week warm up ushers in higher humidity before another break with cooler temperatures appears increasingly likely late in the week.

- Multiple rain chances may develop mid week into next weekend, with the highest chances focused Wednesday night through Thursday night and again next Sunday. There continues to be a rather high probability (40-50% chance) at rainfall totals exceeding 3" over the next 10 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A mid level wave traversing southern Missouri early this morning will slide into the TN Valley today. The MCS out to our west will be moving into a less favorable environment so anticipate a weakening trend and for the severe threat to primarily slide south of us into Arkansas. Having said that we can't completely rule out a strong to severe storm in southeast Missouri through daybreak, but primarily should just be some heavy rainfall and gusty winds to deal with. Could still see some swaths of heavy rainfall that may lead to some flooding concerns through early morning in southeast Missouri given high pwat values, but like the severe threat the primary threat for flooding likely will stay southwest of us as well. After the morning wave moves out we may see some additional isolated showers or storms develop from midday into the afternoon ahead of a second mid-level trough axis diving southeast into the lower Ohio Valley which will coincide with the arrival of drier air. Dew points will be falling through the 60s this afternoon and eventually into the 50s in our northwest.

Early week continues to look amazing by June standards, as dew points fall into the 50s with highs remaining in the 70s on Monday. A mid week system will push a cold front towards our area Wednesday night through Thursday night. While we are currently outlooked for severe chances on Day 4 (Wednesday), it wouldn't be surprising to see our main threat shifted more towards Thursday. Timing on Wednesday would be more overnight right now and Thursday may offer up a better overall parameter space (assuming overnight convection doesn't linger into the morning and impact the instability). Still plenty of time to sort through the details. It looks like late week may see another shot of cooler air (highs back in the low 80s) along with some lower humidity. We may get two dry days Friday and Saturday before ensembles hint at another good chance for rain returning next Sunday. LREF continues to paint pretty high probabilities (40-50% chance) at receiving at least 3 inches of rain over the next 10 days. There is also no sign of 90 degree temperatures, with the warmest days over the next 10 days likely only reaching the mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

SHRA over southeast MO should continue to fizzle out as it tries to push southeast through mid morning. Have had some bouts of IFR cigs early this morning and should see a general trend towards more persistent MVFR cigs by mid-late morning before conditions improve through the afternoon. One final batch of SHRA is possible midday into the afternoon, particularly at northern terminals. Can't rule out an isolated storm as well. Southwest winds will become northwesterly through the day, occasionally gusting up around 20 kts, before subsiding and becoming light/calm overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.