textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight risk of severe thunderstorms remains in place across the Quad State late tonight into Wednesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

- A brief cooldown into the 50s for highs will arrive behind the front for Thursday, with more seasonal temperatures in the 60s and 70s anticipated for highs over the weekend. - A strong cold front's passage late in the weekend will lead to very cold temperatures to start the new week, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s making a loud return. The chance of reaching or exceeding even 45 degrees Monday is less than 30% over almost the entire region. And there is a 30% chance the north won't even get out of the 30s for highs Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

There is little change to the severe outlook late tonight into Wednesday, with our area remaining under a slight risk for severe weather. Models have been consistent with bulk shear starting to pick up after midnight, and becomes impressive over MO between 09-12Z, when helicity starts to increase to 200+ m2/s2. Dew points well positioned in the mid-upr 60s may even reach into the lower 70s at times; current obs show a tongue of such into our southern FA now. All of this translates eastward across the FA as the system makes its approach/passage, the only lacking parameter is surface instability, with its pocket of 500-750 J/KG modeled to kinda outrun the advance of the shear field. The max interest areas still look more closely tied to the surface wave tracks, which will be north and south of us, but how much/where there is interface exists in between will ultimately tell our tale wrt to severe vs not. ESAT still shows chart topping PW's/Moisture availability amidst 10-30 year return intervals, so despite consistent modeling around 1", where they can train or repeat will present at least a MRGL risk for flooding rains as well. The event is effectively over with fropa by Wednesday evening, with lingering pops diminishing shortly thereafter.

After a brief cooldown to the 50s behind the front Thursday, we see moderating seasonal temps over the weekend in the 60s-70s. Then a strong cold front makes passage toward the end of the weekend. It will bring in unseasonably colder air with a broad return of 40s and 20s for highs and lows to begin the new work week. The DESI shows less than a 30% chance the north even gets out of the 30s for highs Monday, and likewise shows even where that occurs, there is little chance of reaching past 45 degrees. As a result of this incoming cold air, we may just transition from thunder in the afternoon or evening Sunday, to a light dusting of snowfall before it ends Sunday night. It does not look like impactful snow, but light accumulations in grassy areas cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions through 08z with a stray shra possible. After 07z, shra/tsra will spread across all TAF sites with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with precipitation. MVFR conditions will become predominant around 12z with scattered shra. Numerous shra/tsra will return by 15z, ending from west to east after 20z. Winds will be southwest at 10-20kts with gusts of 20-30kts tonight into Wednesday morning, shifting to the west then northwest between 18z-23z with the passage of a cold front.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.