textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Small shower chances tonight and Wednesday increase for late week into Saturday with the best chances of showers and thunderstorms is Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Total rainfall from Thursday through Saturday night could be around 2-3" along the I-64 corridor, decreasing to around 0.5-1" along the southern edge of the Quad State.

- Summer heat returns for the end of the weekend into next week with highs reaching into the 90s Sunday through Tuesday. Heat indices over 105 on Monday and Tuesday will be a concern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered mid-level cumulus is forming over much of the Quad State on a pleasant and cooler than normal day today with highs projected to only reach the near 80 to lower 80 range. Dry conditions remain through this evening. High pressure over the region shifts eastward as we move through the midweek period with winds becoming more southerly tomorrow in its wake. A narrow shortwave trough moves through tonight into Wednesday, with the disturbance tracking southeastward from Missouri into Arkansas to Tennessee and Mississippi. Overnight tonight to early morning Wednesday PoPs are confined to the southwestern corner of the Quad State, the Ozarks, which may snag a moderate rain shower or possibly even a thunderstorm early morning, while most activity stays to the west/south.

Low pressure moving towards the Great Lakes late Wednesday, and a second low developing in the Front Range, trail a cold front between them. Moisture streaming northward ahead of this front may result in some showers Wednesday night in northwestern portions of the Quad State. The front stalls in a west-east orientation as we move into late week. Multiple shortwave disturbances work their way eastward along the boundary. Models vary on timing but tend to favor Thursday evening through Friday night for peak chances. Model soundings suggest decent CAPE, but shear will be more limited around 20-25kts. Adequate for a few stronger storms and possibly a severe or two across the Thursday-Friday night period if one of the disturbances moves through during a more favorable time of day, but more in the realm of standard summertime activity. PoPs have increased in the northeast Saturday, slowing down the timing of when rain finally moves out with chance PoPs remaining in the Evansville Tri-State through Saturday night. On average, models favor placing the boundary just to our north, so QPF ranges from 2-3 inches in the north to half an inch to an inch in the south with periods of 2+ inch precipitable water.

A ridge quickly strengthens Sunday with the boundary rapidly shifting northward into early next week which should bring several days of hot and likely dry conditions to the Quad State. Temperatures surge to the 90s for highs and mid to upper 70s for lows. Daytime heat indices are likely to reach the triple digits beginning Sunday and are currently projected to be around 105-110 early next week, so we will monitor for potential heat products.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with daytime cumulus at FEW/SCT040-050, increasing high clouds mainly after 12z, and no vsby restrictions. Variable winds around 5kts or less today will become calm tonight, then south at 3-6kts after 15z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.