textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Tornado Watch is in effect through this evening for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. There is a 40-60% chance for storms to develop that will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Evansville Tri-State region remains the greatest area of concern for severe weather.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the Ozark Foothills through this evening. Gusty winds upwards 30-35 mph combined with low relative humidity around 20% and the ongoing drought conditions will heighten the fire danger.

- Temperatures begin to trend closer to normal on Friday, followed by below normal temperatures Sunday. There is a 20% chance of a light shower on Saturday, but the greater 30-40% chance of rain does not arrive until late Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A leading 500 mb vort max associated with a broad trough over the western CONUS is now providing PVA over northeast portions of the FA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed due to synoptic scale forcing for ascent as sfc low pressure moves northeast into Illinois by this evening with a trailing cold front to the west. The risk for a few severe storms remains a concern with the RAP showing an axis of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with steeper 7.0 to 7.5 C/km lapse rates and 60 kts of effective bulk shear. However, the boundary-layer moisture remains modest at best with dewpoints approaching 60 degrees. The right exit region of a 250 mb jet max is now moving in, and will inhibit storm coverage with the next few hours posing the greatest risk for storms to intensify towards the Wabash Valley and Evansville Tri-State region. This is where 150 to 200 m^2/s^2 of SRH and low freezing levels will support the highest risk for isolated supercells that will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Storms quickly move out of the FA and grow upscale north of I-64 this evening where the CAMs are focusing helicity tracks that would support the highest risk of tornadoes. At this point, the best instability will be quickly waning with warming in the mid-levels, However, redevelopment that would result in a broken line of storms along the front is possible across portions of southwest Indiana into the Kentucky Pennyrile region before quickly pushing southeast by Midnight. The thermodynamics remain marginal enough to support an isolated severe storm with damaging winds, but the risk will continue to diminish tonight due to the loss of diurnal heating.

Overall, the greatest risk of isolated severe storms is now through early this evening towards I-64, and inside the area that is under a Tornado Watch until 8PM CST. While most of the FA may not even see much in the way of rain, any storms in the next 1 to 2 hours that can tap into the thermodynamics have the potential to be highly impactful. Elevated fire danger also remains a concern across the Ozark foothills where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening.

Behind the cold front, much cooler temperatures closer to normal arrive to end the week before trending below normal during the latter half of the weekend. Highs by Monday struggle to reach the 40s with lows in the 20s before temperatures begin to moderate towards the middle of the week. There remains a 20% chance of a light shower on Saturday, but most of the FA likely remains dry. A 30-40% chance of rain does not arrive until late Wednesday when the next system approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A few showers or a thunderstorm will move eastward out of western Kentucky and southwest Indiana over the next couple of hours with no impacts to the TAF sites expected. A cold front is moving eastward through the area shifting winds from moderate out of the south to the west. West winds and VFR conditions are forecast through the day Friday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.