textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid start to new week with reinforcing cold blast keeping temperatures below freezing until Tuesday. Wind chills in single digits south, perhaps negative digits far north, flirts with headline criteria.

- The dry/cold air mass will heighten fire danger as RH's plummet into the 20s and 30s percentile thru Tuesday.

- A mid week return to more normal temperatures will be quickly followed by another cold blast, carrying a return to below normal temperatures thru the week's end and beyond.

UPDATE

Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

High amplitude Eastern CONUS troffing dominates the forecast. The result is our existing return to winter cold that nears Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Temperatures remain below freezing until Tuesday. Wind chills tonight in the far south will be in the single digits, and may touch zero or perhaps the negative digits briefly in the far north, flirting with headline criteria in the row of counties north of I-64, in southern IL/southwest IN; collaborative consensus seems to be to message that w/o headline, but either way, the cold is the highlight.

A brief return to climatologically more normal temperatures occurs Wednesday, just ahead of the next blast of polar air. It returns similar temperatures to which we now are experiencing, to carry through the week's end and beyond, as both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks suggest no soon end to the driving upper wave pattern's predominant influx trajectory of polar air. Next pcpn chances with the week ending blast are all over the place, so it's too early/too far out in time to pinpoint any subsequent significant impacts from any such chances, if they even occur. The main theme at this point continues to be the cold impacts, whether headline reaching or just close, but we do need to keep an eye on it, as the NBM currently suggests light accumulations possible.

The breadth of the cold/dry air advection will also plummet daily RH values into the 20s and 30s percentile, heightening fire danger during a time of D0/D1 drought that encompasses the broader reaches of our CWA; parts of the Ozarks are even reaching into the D2 drought condition, and with minimal pcpn on the near term horizon, these conditions will only persist and may well expand.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

BKN mid cloud in our north will scatter out through the night. Noticed in time-heights that some low level moisture may materialize resulting in at least patches of MVFR cigs overnight, but confidence isn't overly high in this. NW winds pick up late tonight into tomorrow with gusts over 20 kts possible at times, particularly tomorrow morning through mid afternoon before winds subside late in the day.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.