textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight risk of severe storms late Tuesday into Wednesday. All severe weather hazards are possible. Locally heavy rainfall will highlight a marginal risk for flooding.

- There is still a 30-50% chance some of us see 80F degrees or better for highs tomorrow. A cooldown into the 50s for highs comes Thursday, the day after our storm system's passage. - Temperatures moderate to more seasonal 60s-70s over the weekend before yielding to a stronger push of cold air to start the new work week. There is an 80-90% chance high temperatures remain in the 40s Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A developing warm sector brings scattered elevated shower/storm chances tonight into Tuesday. Dew points actually make their way into the middle and possibly upper 60s by tmrw pm. South winds pick up/get breezy as the pressure gradient tightens with the approaching storm system. Wind fields begin to pick up after 06z Wed, and are cranking good by 12z Wed as some higher 200+ m2/s2 helicity comes into the picture with surface waves racing along/with the lifting warm boundary. This is the environment the approaching split flow system draws upon as it dives the cold front into play during the heating hours Wednesday. How much heating/how much break in cloud cover will greatly impact surface and overall instability and may well be the difference between storms taking off vs lacking that take-off. The two parent surface waves remaining well north and well south of us also will be a potential negating factor, but there's enough overall lift/instability/moisture presence to maintain the SLGT risk anticipation for a potential severe outbreak in the two aforementioned phases from late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

In addition to the all severe hazards in play, that looks like a transition from an elevated/morning hail threat, to more surface based wind threat as the day wears on and the cold front nears...we also have a heavy rain threat that induces a MRGL risk of flooding from WPC. E-SAT pings top-end PW's/moisture sourcing with 10-30 year Return Intervals, so our consistently signalled 1-1.5" storm average qpf may pose some flooding issues where storms can train or repeat over the same areas, allowing for localized heavier totals.

Warm environ temperatures still look to return to widespread 70s for highs tomorrow, and some locations may well see 80F readings as there remains a 30-50% chance of 80F+ being achieved. The storm system's complete passage Wednesday night draws highs down into the 50s Thursday, and we remain seasonal thru the weekend while moderating into the 60s-some 70s.

Another cold front will bring a more substantial punch of cold air for the beginning of the new work week. There is actually an 80-90% chance highs do not reach or exceed 50F degrees Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions have developed, but MVFR ceilings should return by 03Z at most sites and by 06Z at all sites. Some scattered mostly light showers are expected to stream northeast mainly across western Kentucky. A period of IFR ceilings are expected over much of the region in the overnight into morning hours, especially east of the Mississippi River. Conditions should improve to at least MVFR by midday, and VFR is not out of the question in the afternoon. South southwest winds will increase by midday and could gust 20-25kts at KCGI and KMVN in the afternoon, especially if some scattering/lifting of clouds occurs. Gusts 15-20kts are expected elsewhere.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.