textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight risk of severe thunderstorms continues for all of the Quad State with the exception of southeast Missouri. Damaging winds will be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes and marginally severe hail reports are also possible.

- Southwest winds of 15-25 mph will gust as high as 40 mph at times through this afternoon over portions of west KY and southwest IN. HREF probabilities show a 70-80% chance of exceeding 40 mph, which is Wind Advisory Criteria.

- A brief cooldown into the 50s for highs will arrive behind the cold front for tonight into Thursday. Lows will drop to near freezing tonight with highs only in the 50s for Thursday. More seasonal temperatures in the 60s and 70s are anticipated for Friday through the weekend. - Cold temperatures are expected to start the new week. Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s! The chance of reaching or exceeding 45 degrees Monday is less than 20% over the entire region. There is an 80% chance the north stays in the 30s for highs Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The severe weather outlooks is virtually unchanged for the Quad State area for today with a Slight Risk in place for much of the area. This will be along and ahead of a cold front passing through by or around 15-18Z (10am-1pm) over southeast MO and southern IL and around 18Z-22Z (1pm-5pm) over west KY and southwest IN. It should be noted that there is still considerable difference in the guidance with respect to how the storms evolve today, especially with respect to instability. Instability ahead of the front is progged to increase to range from around 500 to 1000 J/kg with west to west- southwest shear values around 30-40kts. The shear vectors somewhat orthogonal to the front may lead to an increase damaging wind threat with any bowing segments, while helicity values around 200-300 m2/s2 continue to support a tornado threat. Also in favor of a few spin up tornadoes will be 0-3km shear vectors progged to be out of the west around 30-40kts. Mid-level lapse rates aren't too impressive, so overall hail threat is expected to be fairly low. Dewpoint temperatures (around 65 degrees) will be supportive of surface based storms and have been correlated with severe weather in the Quad State. The timing for the greatest severe weather risk looks to be late morning into the early afternoon hours with the greatest threat moving out of the southeast portion of the Quad State by or around 5 pm. Remnant storms (outrunning the front) will move in a bit earlier in the day, around or just before daybreak this morning and may produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Depending on how quickly those move out will have a big impact on destabilization.

Heavy rainfall will may be an issue with the recent heavy rains that a good portion of the Quad State experienced over the past week. Rainfall rates around 1 in/hr will be possible in the stronger thunderstorms; however, the line itself looks to be transient enough to limit a widespread flood potential.

Outside of any thunderstorm wind gusts will be an increase in gradient winds ahead of the cold front. In fact, most locations will see southwest winds around 15-25 mph through this afternoon before shifting to the west and northwest. The Pennyrile of west KY into southwest IN may end up seeing strong wind gusts mix down with gusts to 40 mph possible in those areas. HREF probabilities show around an 80% chance of that happening, which gives plenty of confidence (along with the meteorology) to support a Wind Advisory through mid to late afternoon.

After a brief shot of cooler temperatures behind the front tonight into Thursday (highs in the 50s and low around freezing) temperatures warm to more seasonable levels Friday through the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s. The next strong cold front will pass through the area Sunday, bringing the next round of showers and storms. Current thinking is that the better moisture from the Gulf will struggle to lift far enough north (dewpoints in the low 50s) to limit overall severe potential. In fact, the instability associated with that system looks to be fairly marginal, while shear is forecast to be around 25 kts. Again, it is worth keeping an eye on, but overall severe threat for Sunday looks limited at this time. Much colder air will arrive behind that cold front with much of the area seeing highs in the 30s and 40s for Monday and lows in the 20s!!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions at all sites through 15z, except at KMVN with cigs varying between VFR and MVFR. Scattered to numerous shra/tsra expected from 10z-13z. Cigs will become MVFR between 12z-15z. Numerous shra/tsra will return by 15z-17z accompanied by MVFR vsbys, ending from west to east after 20z. Winds will be southwest at 10-20kts with gusts of 25-35kts tonight into Wednesday morning, shifting to the west then northwest between 18z-23z with the passage of a cold front.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ this morning to 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ this afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ010-013>016-018>021.