textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from the southwest this afternoon, peaking around 70-90% Monday afternoon across most of the region. There is a marginal severe risk for damaging winds mainly over southeast Missouri late this afternoon into tonight.

- The risk of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding issues increases on Monday. There is the potential for training thunderstorms that will be capable of producing torrential downpours with rainfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour. Rain chances linger into Tuesday before trending drier until Thursday night with a 50-70% chance.

- The hottest stretch of the season begins on Tuesday with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees. A combination of the heat and humidity will cause daily heat index values to rise around 100 degrees through Thursday, followed by some relief on Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Upper level water vapor and model analysis show a sharply diffluent zone ahead of an upper level low over southwest Missouri. Objective and manual analysis show a small zone of overlap of 25-30 kt 0-6km shear and 25-30 kt 850mb winds that could create a pocket of favorable conditions for thunder and isolated severe in the overnight hours, mainly over northern SEMO and southwest Illinios. RAP/HRRR initiate this about 3-4 am after ra few more hours of large scale ascent form that diffluent zone. HRRR/RAP soundings show it developing in an area of 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH with a deceptively curvy lowest level hodograph. 00z SGF RAOB modfied to current conditions show we need about 1500-2000 ft of low level convergence/lift to initate and we may not quite reach that.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Unsettled weather returns today with a mid-level low lifting northeast across the central Plains. Modest height falls combined with diurnal heating will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances from the southwest this afternoon into tonight. There is a marginal risk of severe weather mainly over southeast Missouri. Pockets of 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with low-level lapse rates between 7.0-8.0 C/km and 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear will support isolated damaging winds associated with downbursts. Torrential downpours will also be possible given PWATs above the 95th percentile around 2 inches and sfc mixing ratios near 18 g/kg that will be capable of causing rainfall rates between 1-2 inches per hours. Rain chances peak around 70-90% Monday afternoon across most of the FA when the risk of localized flash flooding issue will be higher. This is when the potential for training thunderstorms will be greater with lower corfidi storm motion vectors. Despite FFG in the 2-3 inch range that will help to inhibit widespread issues, there is a non-zero chance for 3-5 inches locally over a short duration that would be impactful. With storms rapidly developing in the morning, this may limit the instability potential, posing more of a heavy rain risk versus the marginal severe weather risk.

Rain chances linger into Tuesday before trending drier for the middle of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the FA. In the wake of a cold front Thursday night into Friday morning, the hottest stretch of the season is progged Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures pushing 90 degrees. A combination of the heat and humidity will cause heat index values to rise around 100 degrees. NBM is still below heat advisory criteria, but the Heat Risk index (Category 2-3) does suggest most without cooling and hydration will be more sensitive than what is typical on Wednesday and Thursday. A 50-70% chance of showers and storms then return by Thursday night, as a cold front brings some relief to end the week on Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

MVFR cigs for the most part anticipated overnight as a slow moving storm system impacts the area. Convection in a few waves will also remain a factor through much of the period. Broad prob30s highlight both the uncertainty of timing in the very soupy airmass and the potential for more than one round of operationally significant TSRA.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.