textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A somewhat unsettled pattern will be in place tonight through Wednesday, with primary rain chances (40-80%) across the north half of the region. Rain chances (70-90%) increase for the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday and again on Saturday.

- Heaviest rainfall totals through Friday night remain primarily north of the Ohio River and into southeast MO, where there is a 50- 90% chance at exceeding 1". Much of west KY may have to wait until this weekend into early next week to see substantial amounts over 0.50". There is a 40-60% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 3" across most of our region through March 11th.

- There remains low confidence regarding severe thunderstorm potential, but there is at least some concern for these on a few days this week, particularly Wednesday and Saturday.

- Temperatures will be well above normal much of this week and into early next week. There is a high probability (>70%) of temperatures reaching 70 degrees across the south half of the area on Tuesday and the entire region Wednesday through March 10th. Portions of the region, particularly west KY and southeast MO, may hit 80 on Friday (50-70% chance).

UPDATE

Issued at 500 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Zonal flow aloft will transition to southwesterly across the Quad State later this week into early next week. Disturbances ejecting out of the western U.S. trough will present near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will lead to beneficial rainfall falling across our drought-stricken region. While the highest amounts will initially be more focused across northern and western portions of our region (through Friday night), eventually more of the region will get in on heavier QPF as we head into the weekend and next week. The LREF grand ensemble has remained somewhat consistent, giving us a 40-60% chance at receiving at least 3" of rainfall through March 11th. Flooding concerns appear to be rather limited though, thanks to the rain being spread out over a longer time period.

Low clouds, some patchy drizzle, and northeasterly winds are providing a not so pleasant Monday across our region with highs likely to remain in the low to mid 40s. A warm front will lift north tonight into Tuesday morning, with convection developing along it. This will primarily impact northern parts of the area. Additional showers and storms will be possible mainly north of the Ohio River through Wednesday. As low level moisture and instability increase, the environment becomes a bit more conducive for a few strong to severe storms on Wednesday, most likely late in the day or into the evening. The greatest chance for this appears to remain off to our north and west, but the SPC Day 3 marginal seems justified for now.

As a shortwave passes across the Midwest, PoPs will increase across our region Wednesday night into Thursday. Beyond this, upper ridging strengthens across the southeast U.S. with southwesterly flow setting up across our region into early next week. Another system impacts our region Friday night into Saturday, and yet another one or two likely will impact us early to mid next week. CSU-MLP does depict a broad 5% severe risk with the Saturday system. Still rather low confidence in it, but something to monitor as we get closer.

Once the warm front lifts north tomorrow, temperatures will remain well above normal through the rest of the period. There is a high probability (>70%) of temperatures reaching 70 degrees most days from Wednesday through early next week. Although, Sunday may be somewhat cooler (60s) behind the Saturday frontal passage. Guidance continues to hint at low 80s in some areas on Friday, which would break some records. It would be the 3rd earliest first 80 degree reading on record at PAH (earliest is March 2, 2012).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Minor adjustments to the 00Z package include socking it in lower with bases as currently being observed or on the near horizon, then holding that thru the bulk of the overnight until the boundary returns north as we warm sector. Some light shower activity may offer additional sensible wx restrictions that otherwise BR/MIFG restricts to MVFR wrt VSBYS, particularly as it becomes more quasi-stationary on its northern-most advance and thus continues some prob30/VCSH thru the day there (KMVN- KEVV-KOWB). Otherwise, at least some temporary improvements into MVFR and perhaps VFR may become a possibility deeper within the warm sector tmrw, particularly at KCGI/KPAH, as southerlies establish.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.