textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near normal levels through the weekend, then a nice warm up is expected next week.

- Rain is likely to track across the southern half of the Quad State Friday afternoon through Friday night with areas near the Arkansas and Tennessee borders potentially seeing close to a quarter inch of rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A broad band of low clouds stretching from the IA/IL/MO triple point to Louisville are slowly drifting southward early this morning. These clouds are located along and behind a very weak "cold" front (even though the incoming cloud cover will probably lift temperatures following the front). Lows in the north will occur shortly before clouds move in, while southern areas are more likely to have low temperatures around sunrise. Cloud cover thins out later in the day, though the forecast will lean towards a slower pace of this clearing.

On the synoptic scale, a trough lifts to the east while a ridge remains over the west. Slow eastward progression of the ridge will keep the Quad State at relatively stable H5 heights this weekend despite transitioning from northwesterly flow aloft to zonal flow. Ridging broadens out over the Quad State early next week.

A quickly progressing low pressure system near the west coast tracks across Oklahoma into the Mid-South Friday night, bringing a chance of rain to the southern half of the Quad State Friday afternoon through Friday night. QPF holds fairly steady compared to the previous model cycle at around a quarter inch near the AR and TN borders with dry conditions in the north. Several models depict an upper level disturbance following close behind but keep it dry in the wake of the surface low.

High pressure keeps the remainder of the weekend dry. As the ridge moves overhead early next week, temperatures warm to above normal. A system tracking through the Great Lakes Monday will keep precip well northeast of the forecast area. A cold frontal passage with more active conditions (decent rainfall and some thunderstorm potential) becomes more likely later in the week but variation in timing and structure remain substantial.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A swath of low stratus located north of Interstate 64 will push south into the region this morning, bringing low MVFR restrictions for a few hours to MVN, EVV, and OWB. These clouds will arrive at this terminals around 12-14z and linger through 18-21z, then mixing out and lifting back to VFR. Cloud bases with this stratus will be around 1000-1500ft These clouds will stay north of CGI and PAH, where only high clouds are expected. With high pressure centered over the region, winds will be light and variable through late tonight, when they will become N to NE around 3-5 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.