textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a 80 to 90 percent chance of rain and 15 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is still a marginal risk of severe weather with isolated damaging wind gusts the main threat.

- Winds will be gusty out of the south today before shifting to the northwest this evening. Gusts may reach or exceed 40 mph, which is Wind Advisory criteria. (30-50% chance).

- A brief blast of cold air will arrive tonight through Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to warm above freezing for that time period and there is a 60-90 percent chance that wind chill values fall into the single digits above zero!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Widespread rain (80-90 percent chance) is expected this afternoon into this evening as a strong cold front pushes through the area from the west. Even though it is mentioned as widespread rain, it will likely be in the form of a narrow line of brief heavier showers and possibly a thunderstorm, meaning that everyone will likely see rain, but the rain will not last all afternoon/evening. Instability still looks to be weak with this system around 100-200 J/kg with the greatest chance of seeing greater instability over southeast MO into southern IL. (30-40% chance of greater than 200 J/kg). Mid-level lapse rates are a bit steeper than previously forecast around 7 C/km, which has helped to boost instability up a bit. The system is is still very dynamic with 0-6km shear values progged to be around 40-50kts out of the west and 0-3km shear values around 30-40kts out of the west. The greatest shear values are actually farther north into southern IL, which may be where the best chance for severe weather is this afternoon. Still not looking like a high-end severe threat, but it is possible that a few damaging wind gusts could occur and maybe a brief/weak spin up tornado this afternoon/evening. Most of the Quad State area remains under a marginal risk of severe weather, largely for the threat of damaging wind gusts.

Outside of any showers/storms, winds will still be quite gusty as the pressure gradient tightens and cold air advection increases. In fact, gusts could exceed 40 mph this afternoon and evening (about a 30-50 percent chance). In fact, it is possible winds will reach Advisory level criteria this afternoon as the low to the northeast rapidly deepens and strong high pressure builds in across the Plains. At this point, have opted to highlight the wind gust potential today with a Special Weather Statement; however, it is very possible a Wind Advisory may be needed with the late morning update.

A brief shot of colder air is set to arrive behind the front tonight before lingering into Monday and Tuesday with highs struggling to get above freezing. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper teens to around 20. There is a good chance (60-90 percent chance) that wind chill values will drop into the single digits above zero Monday night into Tuesday morning.

High temperatures will warm above freezing (closer to normal) for Wednesday through Friday with mainly dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The main concern overnight is IFR to MVFR cigs that will remain in place across the entire region. South gradient winds begin to increase in the morning with a 90-100% probability of gusts exceeding 30 kts across all terminals after 18z Sunday. In the wake of a cold front late Sunday afternoon, MVFR cigs will persist before a strong squall line of gusty showers moves across the region between 22z-02z. There is only a 10-20% chance of brief lightning. Winds shift more westerly Sunday evening with a 40-60% chance of MVFR cigs lingering at KEVV/KOWB by the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.