textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- One more cold day today, as high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s throughout the Quad State. Continued northwest winds will keep wind chills over much of the region below 30 degrees.

- Strong south to southwest winds Tuesday will bring the heat. Above normal temperatures are expected from Wednesday through next weekend.

- Widespread showers are expected Wednesday night and Thursday and thunderstorms chances are increasing. There is a 10-50% chance of more than a half inch mainly over west Kentucky.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The strong upper trough over the eastern half of the country will finally begin to push east today, allowing surface high pressure to settle over the Quad State late today and tonight. The result will be one more cold day today, with northwest winds slowly diminishing from west to east through the day. Temperatures will not escape the 30s through the day, and east of the Mississippi, wind chills will not reach 30 degrees.

South to southwest winds will develop quickly and become gusty on Tuesday. The 00Z ECENS has a small chance of gusts reaching 40 mph over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The ConsShort winds, sustained and gusts, were used to bolster the NBM winds on Tuesday.

A fairly low-level inversion will limit mixing which should keep dewpoints from tanking Tuesday. The forecast relative humidity is expected to hold in the 25-35% range. If the humidity trends much lower southeast Missouri and southern Illinois could flirt with Red Flag conditions. Of course, those areas are experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions, and given the strength of the winds, a Warning may be necessary even if the humidity is not quite down to criteria. Any fires that develop could quickly spread out of control.

The southwest winds Tuesday will allow temperatures to climb back close to normal, but readings will climb above normal levels (lower 50s) each day from Wednesday through the weekend. The warmest day will be Saturday when highs will be in the 60s throughout the region. There is still a chance of a cold front moving into or through the Quad State Saturday night or Sunday, so Sunday will be cooler, but still a few degrees above normal.

The 00Z guidance continues to bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday night through Thursday. WPC QPF remains just over an inch in the southeast, with at least a quarter inch throughout the region. In support of this significant QPF, the ensembles have precipitable water values of 150-200% of normal, and the thunder threat from the NBM has increased. On the flip side, the probability of receiving one inch or more in the 00Z ensembles is 10% or less. Would like to see the models generate that kind of QPF before getting too excited about an inch or more rainfall in the forecast.

Looking at next weekend, a weak cold front will dip into the region Saturday night and Sunday. This boundary will remain draped across the region into Monday. The flow aloft is nearly zonal with some embedded disturbances moving through the area. Given the strength of the flow and relative weakness of the disturbances, it would seem unlikely that any substantial precipitation would develop Sunday into next Monday, but the NBM has 20-40% PoPs scattered across the region in this period. QPF is generally disorganized and light.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Ceilings will straddle 3kft this morning before lifting or scattering to VFR by midday. Northwest winds will continue to gust through the morning, but will diminish some this afternoon, especially over the western half of the region. Winds will be light and variable at all sites by sunset.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.