textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are possible Wednesday into early Thursday morning. There is a low risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, mainly over southeast Missouri. Damaging winds is the main concern.

- Hot temperatures and higher humidity levels return Sunday into early next week, with heat index values near 100 degrees. Unlike the previous heat wave, this will be a much drier heat with high temperatures warming well into the 90s.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A 500 mb shortwave trough will round a 597 dm ridge over the SW CONUS on Wednesday as a sfc cold front approaches from the north Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially, an influx of moisture and isentropic lift associated with a warm front tonight may trigger elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over SEMO Wednesday morning. While the HRRR focuses elevated convection in the morning, the NSSL/FV3 show more robust sfc based storms in the afternoon and evening where SPC has a marginal/slight risk of severe weather. DCAPE of 900 to 1200 J/kg combined with 7.0-8.0 C/km low-level lapse rates will pose a risk for damaging winds. The overall thermodynamics are certainly supportive with 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. However, the severe risk is highly conditional, as it is contingent on the morning convection that would result in cloud debris. Humidity levels will also be on the increase with dewpoints rising to near 70 degrees.

As the aformentioned cold front approaches Wednesday night, a scattered broken line of showers and storms tries to develop. Rain pushes east into early Thursday morning across the entire FA. Severe weather chances likely wane overnight with the loss of diurnal heating, but additional development is possible Thursday afternoon over the Kentucky Pennyrile as the front washes out to the north. At any given point, rain chances peak at a 30-50% chance due to the large spread among the CAMs, making it difficult to pinpoint timing. Where storms occur, up to a half to one inch of rainfall will be possible, especially over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky where confidence is higher in seeing some rain.

While brief relief in the humidity arrives on Friday, a 594 dm ridge of high pressure builds over the FA this weekend into early next week that will allow for 850 mb temps to rise above 20C. High temperatures are progged by Sunday and Monday to reach the low to mid 90s; however, dewpoints struggle to reach 70 degrees due to less evaporational transport from agriculture. This translates to heat index values only around 100 degrees. Given that model ensembles show the ridge persisting through much of next week, would not be surprised to see temperatures reach the upper 90s at some point. Unlike the previous heatwave, the lower dewpoints favor this being a much drier heat that will make heat headlines unlikely through at least the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A warm front to the southwest of the terminals will serve as a focusing mechanism for showers/storms late tonight into tmrw am. This may spill a few debris clouds into the terminal forecast flight area, namely for the terminals KCGI/KPAH nearer the boundary, and might yield a chance of a shower/storm but we think the focus along the boundary down in Arkansas is enough to preclude from the 00Z mention; will reevaluate at 06z. It'll be an otherwise VFR forecast with light southerlies developing tmrw and additional/perhaps better pcpn probabilities coming in just beyond the purview of this package.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.