textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 25 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

- A few storms this afternoon could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat.

- A daily 15 to 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday.

- Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

At the synoptic level early this morning, strong H5 ridging remains centered over the western CONUS, with increasing troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the northern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front moving into the southern Great Lakes and Midwest. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front is currently moving southward across central IL. While on a weakening trend, this activity may impact locations along the I-64 corridor early this morning.

For the rest of today, the chances of convection have increased during the afternoon hours, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Latest CAMs are showing moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary, boosting forecast CAPE values to 2500-3500 J/kg, along with DCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/kg. While shear will be marginal at best for severe convection (around 30 kts in the 00-06 km layer), the environment looks more supportive for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Tonight, the front will clear the area, bringing a return of quiet weather for Sunday. However, by Monday through most of next week, the mid-level flow regime will become NW as the area remains sandwiched between the western ridge and northeast trough. As shortwaves rotate around the periphery of the ridge, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday. Predictability is especially low in these setups, so timing out the precise arrival of the highest precipitation chances and severe thunderstorm risks is difficult at this range. Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

As lingering shallow fog at CGI and PAH mixes away, a cold front will move through the region from north to south now through the late afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, mainly in southern parts of southeast MO and western KY. Right now, confidence was high enough to introduce PROB30 groups for TSRA to OWB and PAH, but this may be adjusted in the next TAF package. Winds will increase from the N to NW around 6-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible this afternoon at OWB and EVV. Cloud bases will be around 4-8kft this afternoon with diurnal CU development.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.