textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures expected this week as welcome relief from the hot weather.

- An overnight MCS may bring some severe weather to our western most counties by tomorrow morning. We are in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for damaging winds.

- Tomorrow evening and into the overnight brings another chance for severe weather. We're in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for mainly damaging winds, but some hail and a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Sfc high pressure overhead today is making for a very pleasant day with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. A developing upper level wave to the west looks to spark an MCS tonight that will work its way toward the CWA by morning. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the far western portions of the CWA for this MCS late overnight with primarily a damaging wind threat. After a lull tomorrow afternoon and depending on where the boundary sets up will determine where storms fire up again in the evening and continue through Thursday morning.

We're in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for tomorrow evening's activity with mainly a damaging wind threat, but some hail and a QLCS tornado or two can't be ruled out where low pressure rides along the boundary. Right now, timing for tomorrow is the lowest confidence thing, but thinking mainly after 4 PM with the severe threat winding down overnight.

By Friday the broad trof axis aloft shifts east and sfc high pressure fills in overhead and brings back the pleasant, seasonable weather. Highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s to end the week and into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Mainly clear skies through much of the night before BKN mid cloud move in from the northwest after 09z associated with a thunderstorm complex. Most guidance suggests a line of showers and storms moving southeast into our region after 10z or so, and generally weakening with eastward extent. Therefore, have highest confidence of -TSRA at KCGI/KMVN. Some stronger wind gusts are possible with the convection as well. Restrictions to vsbys are probable, but cigs most likely will stay VFR. Mid cloud may try to SCT out by midday into the afternoon, ahead of our next potential round of showers and storms tomorrow evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.