textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue, with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Friday.

- Hot temperatures and high humidity will persist into the weekend, but heat indices will be several degrees lower.

- Low end chances (20 to 30%) of showers and storms return Thursday and Friday, with chances increasing to 30 to 50% for the July 4th weekend.

- A frontal boundary moving toward and into our region Monday into Tuesday will increase shower and thunderstorm chances to 40 to 60%.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Very hot and humid conditions will continue with strong upper level ridging over our region. Daytime highs will continue to reach the middle 90s through the end of the week. With dew points in the middle and even upper 70s, late morning through early evening heat indices will be mostly be in the 105 to 112+ degree range. On Thursday, the model blend brings 20-30% chances of showers and storms into mainly west Kentucky during the afternoon hours. On Friday, with the ridge pushing east and starting to weaken, 20-30% chances spread across the entire PAH forecast area.

By the holiday weekend, the center of the upper high moves off the southeast coast, allowing a couple of trofs to move through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Shower and storm chances increase to 30-50% Saturday through Sunday night. The additional clouds and scattered precipitation will bring heat indices down to around 105 degrees.

An approaching frontal boundary Monday into Tuesday will provide better precipitation chances across the region. The timing of the front and just how far south it will move are still in question, but the latest model blend produces 40-60% chances of showers and storms, especially during the heat of the day. Heat indices early next week will be mostly around 100 degrees as temperatures trend down close to seasonable readings.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Any lingering MVFR fog will dissipate by 13z. VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period, with FEW-SCT040 cumulus between 15z-01z, and MVFR fog possible at all sites after 07z. Calm to light winds will become southwest at 5-10kts after 14z, then light to calm after 01z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.