textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the entire region tonight. Widespread frost/freeze overnight will likely end the growing season. Patchy fog is also possible near bodies of water.

- Above normal temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. The warming trend may also lead to more widespread patchy fog Monday morning.

- Rain showers have increased to a 30-50% chance Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as a cold blast filters into the region. Sprinkles linger into Thursday with breezy conditions, followed by a 40-60% chance of highs struggling to reach 50 degrees on Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 343 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A chilly start to the weekend as high pressure is now in control over the FA with tranquil conditions. Highs today will only be in the 50s with lows progged near 32 degrees. While temperatures on the NBM are below the 50th percentile Sunday morning, MOS guidance again is running a few degrees warmer. Unlike this morning, tonight the entire FA will experience mostly clear skies that will allow the boundary layer to quickly decouple with calm winds. Given robust radiational cooling in a dry airmass, tend to lean towards the colder NBM which means a widespread freeze that will end the growing season for most of the region. For this reason, a Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight. Patchy fog will also be possible near warm bodies of water.

The colder temperatures do not last long as southerly return flow on Sunday begins to advect in warmer air with a modest increase in moisture. More widespread patchy fog along with frost Monday morning is favored. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be above normal in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees before a potent cold front plows through the FA late Wednesday. The NBM continues to trend wetter with the LREF now supporting a 30-50% chance of rain showers Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, exceeding a tenth or two of an inch. However, the deterministic GFS remains more robust with a low pressure system rapidly developing over western Tennessee with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds persisting into Thursday. The GFS at the moment is a large outlier as the left entrance region associated with a 130 kt jet at 250 mb would favor the more progressive AI GFS/EC/EC AIFS that would only bring light precipitation to the FA, supported by the LREF.

Putting it all together, after scattered rain showers exit the region by Thursday morning, lingering sprinkles will remain possible on Thursday with breezy conditions. An amplified broad 500 mb trough and embedded vort max with 700 mb moisture will dig across the FA. Due to a tight pressure gradient with increasing cyclogenesis favored more east over the Mid Atlantic region, wind gusts over 20 mph will be possible during the day with northwest flow. In fact, 850 mb temps plummeting below 0C will translate to a 40-60% chance of high temperatures struggling to reach 50 degrees on Friday as the coldest airmass of the season so far will persist into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 343 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Time/height cross sections support satellite obs showing high cirrus traversing across the area. The only moisture available in the column stays AOA H5, with a marked decrease even there over time...so BKN250 bases will trend toward FEW-SCT250 or even SKC over the package in a generally light flow pattern that'll go calm tonight, and WSW tmrw.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM CST /midnight EST/ this evening to 8 AM CST /9 AM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.