textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A chilly morning will greet us to start the work week with wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s.

- Temperatures will briefly warm above normal Today through Wednesday before dropping well below normal for the end of the week into next weekend. Normal high temperatures are in the low to mid 40s with normal lows in the mid to upper 20s.

- A couple small chances (20-30%) for precipitation are forecast through this week, with the greatest chance being Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The rain may briefly transition to light snow before ending Wednesday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 513 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

High pressure over the TN Valley will drift southward across the Southeast U.S. today. Thus after a chilly start to the day, southwest winds will develop leading to a nice rebound by afternoon (even reaching 50s across the west half of the region). Flow aloft will be more flat early in the week, despite still being somewhat troughy. The surface flow will remain out of the southwest on Tuesday, and even warmer air will advect into our cwa then. Some guidance suggests portions of southeast MO may reach the mid 60s even! There is roughly a 40-80% chance of temperatures exceeding 60 for all of southeast MO (highest chance in the Ozark Foothills).

A pattern change occurs mid week as a strong cold front drops south into the Ohio Valley. Deep troughing is forecast to develop over the Southeast U.S. Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing along the front will generate some light rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. There continues to be a signal for some precip to remain as the thermal profile cools late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. This could result in a period of light snow. Current probabilities of a dusting (0.1 -0.2") are roughly 20-30% in the Pennyrile of west KY and across the Wabash Valley of IL/IN, with lower chances further west. Despite this possibility, the warm temperatures beforehand will likely keep any accumulations on elevated or grassy surfaces.

Much colder air will funnel south into our area Wednesday night into Thursday. Lows in the upper teens are a decent bet (30-60% chance of occurring) Thursday morning and highs may struggle to reach freezing (50-80% of remaining below east of the Mississippi River). While slight moderation is anticipated back closer to normal on Friday, it will be short-lived.

While model to model variability continues next weekend, there continues to be a high likelihood that the upper trough will get reinforced by another wave diving southeast. Thus, temperatures will likely be below normal and temperatures by Sunday may be even colder than the mid week period. Current probability of highs remaining below 32 are around 50-60% for Sunday and there is about a 70-80% chance for lows falling below 20. While less likely, there is even around a 20% chance for temps falling below 10 degrees. We may experience some lighter snows Saturday as well, with the current probability of at least a dusting being around 20-40% (highest in our northeast).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 513 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions through this TAF period. Primarily SKC aside from FEW high clouds at times. Light winds will increase out of the southwest this morning, becoming sustained around 10-12 kts. Enough mixing may allow some gusts around 15-18 kts at times late morning into mid afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.