textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures expected today and Tuesday before record or near record temperatures return Wednesday and especially on Thursday. Normal high temperatures are in the upper 50s to low 60s, while record highs for Thursday are in the low to mid 80s.

- A strong cold front will pass through the area Thursday night bringing a 40-60% chance for showers and storms along with another cool down. Strong storms are possible, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A strong cold front passed through the area over the past 12 hours, leading to a sharp drop in temperature from the 80s to the 40s for most locations this morning. Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday as the flow flattens across the area and high pressure remains in place across the Quad State.

A strong upper-level ridge is then expected to build from near the Four Corners are of the CONUS to the central part of the country. This will be ahead of the next surface low pressure system and cold front poised to dive southeast through the mid Mississippi Valley for Thursday night. Warm southerly flow and increasing moisture will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s for Thursday afternoon, which will be approaching record high temperatures. The current forecast has highs in the mid 80s for much of the area, possibly approaching 90 over portions of SEMO. This will place several high temperature records at risk of being broken. Record highs for Thursday are as follows: EVV-81, PAH-83 and POF-83. The probabilities of reaching 85 degrees is about 50-60% across most of the Quad State; however, SEMO has about a 60-80% chance of seeing 85 degrees or greater.

A very strong cold front is expected to pass through the area Thursday night into Friday morning bringing a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is a decent amount of shear being progged across the area (around 35-40 kts); however, instability doesn't look overly impressive at or around 500J/kg. It is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple days as at a minimum a few strong storms will be possible Thursday night. Overall rainfall totals are not expected to be too impressive. There is only a 20-30% chance of seeing a half inch of rain from that system.

Cooler/near normal temperatures are then expected to arrive for the end of the week into next weekend as upper-level troughing digs across the center part of the country. It should be noted that the cooler temperatures appear to be short-lived as yet another ridge is set to build across the western CONUS next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

MVFR clouds out east will gradually erode over the next few hours and give way to clear skies. VFR conditions expected afterwards through the end of the period. This evening an OVC deck of high clouds moves in. Winds will continue to be out of the north for a while today and gusty until this evening when they will shift to more northeast and come down to around 10 kts and less.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.