textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Headline heat with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range and heat index values in the 105-110 range will continue thru the upcoming weekend. Additional and/or extended heat headlines are likely.

- Shower and thunderstorm potential (30-60% chance) will increase across the northeast half of the area this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds and localized flooding as the main threats.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are in the forecast toward the middle of next week. Temperatures are forecast to pull back into the upper 80s to low 90s with small chances for rain (20-30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Upper-level ridging is expected to remain in place the rest of the week and actually strengthen a bit toward the weekend. A somewhat troughed pattern is just off to the east of the area, which will allow northwest flow aloft to direct several rounds of thunderstorms (MCS) through or near the area. The best chance of this happening will be this afternoon into this evening. The best early look at timing will be between roughly 4pm and 10pm; however, timing and placement will depend largely when/where the complex starts up. The latest trends would suggest the complex would already be starting around 7am this morning over eastern/southeastern IA. The storms are likely to be displaced to the southwest of Tuesday's convection with the more extreme heat and humidity available to the southwest of the outflow/boundary layed out by the storms. Instability will be in the 3000-4000 J/kg range ahead of the complex with MCS associated shear around 30kts. DCAPE is progged to be around 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the complex again lending significant support to a damaging wind type of an event as cold pools develop and race through the area. 60- 70 mph winds are not out of the question where the complex pass through the area. The SPC has shifted the slight risk a bit farther to the southwest from earlier outlooks and is highlighting the wind potential. PWATs on the order of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will lead to very heavy downpours and localized flooding, especially where training occurs this afternoon and evening.

The ridge is expected to intensify across the area for the end of the week into the weekend, which will allow temperatures to climb along with the humidity. The current heat headlines were extended with this update; however, it is very possible that they may need to be upgraded to and Extreme Heat Warning within the next day or two as heat index values will likely remain near or above 105 through the weekend. Today's convection may help to pull back on the temps, but that is largely dependent upon the arrival time of the storms. Current thinking it will be late enough that all locations will still be hot!

A frontal boundary is progged to sag southward into the area for Monday, which may briefly bring slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s to low 90s) for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. At this point, an break in the heat would be great!!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1023 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

While skies will be clear overnight, there is a chance some convection may blow up along a remnant outflow boundary over EVV and OWB in the morning for a few hours. Later in the afternoon and evening a complex of storms is modeled to swing through EVV and OWB, however timing is low confidence at this time. A diurnal cu deck will establish during the day again, and winds will be out of the southwest around 5-8 kts before going light and variable overnight again.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-081>094. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ080. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.