textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon and tonight, followed by hot, humid, and very breezy conditions on Wednesday. - An area of thunderstorms is expected to move southeast across much of the region Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially along the Interstate 64 corridor.

- More showers and thunderstorms are possible (40-80%) Thursday and Thursday night with the best chances in west Kentucky. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be possible in the afternoon and evening, especially in west Kentucky.

- Dry conditions are expected to end the work week, with cooler temperatures and less humidity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A mid/upper-level disturbance will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the Quad State this afternoon and evening. Moisture return will be extremely limited which will hamper instability, with SBCAPE struggling to climb above 500J/kg. Bases will likely be well above 850mb. Coverage is likely to be widely scattered with the best chances over the Ozark Foothills. SPC has removed the Marginal Risk of severe from the entire Quad State for today, but given the deep mixed layer and limited moisture, the storms should be outflow dominated with some gusty winds possible.

A strong storm system will bring another round of significant severe weather to central and northern Illinois on Wednesday. Very strong wind fields are expected thanks in part to highly anomalous 850mb flow (30 year return interval). This will lead to very strong south southwesterly winds across most of the Quad State Wednesday afternoon and evening. A Lake Wind Advisory will definitely be needed, and portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana may need a Wind Advisory for 40 mph gusts in the late afternoon and through much of the evening. The strong winds will also bring a rapid return of hot and humid conditions with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and dewpoints climbing up to 70 degrees.

There is some potential for the storms to our northwest Wednesday afternoon to form into a line which would move southeast along the I-64 corridor through the evening. Damaging winds would be the primary concern, but a few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected along and ahead of a cold front Thursday and Thursday night. There should be enough flow aloft to support some severe storm potential in the afternoon and evening, especially over west Kentucky. Damaging winds would be the primary concern.

With the cold front pushing southeast of the area by early Friday, the Quad State should be dry and cooler, with less humidity to end the work week.

More unsettled weather is expected possibly beginning as early as Saturday afternoon and continuing through next Tuesday. Multiple rounds of convection are possible in this period, but the timing and intensity details are quite murky at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread southeast across the region this afternoon and early evening. TSRA is most likely in the north and west. A brief period of MVFR or lower conditions is possible with any TSRA. Otherwise, southwest winds may gust to around 15kts at the northern sites this afternoon. Winds will be light tonight and some fog development will be possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall this afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.