textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- All eyes on the middle of next week, as a slight risk of severe weather returns late Tuesday into Wednesday when all severe hazards will be in play.

- Recent and forecast heavy rainfall has returned river flooding to the area. Another 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected with the mid week system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A cold front on the doorstep of the FA will soon slowly drag across the PAH FA. We are seeing the last vestiges of its band of pre-frontal showers/thunderstorms just make their departure. Having tapping into the northward surge of a wetting of the proverbial dew point tongue to a mid-upr 60s tune, the local atmosphere is now worked over, though dew points remain in the upper 50s-lower 60s. The blanket storm canopy will inhibit further growth while scattered/lingering showers/potentially thunderstorm breathe with some life a few more hours before ending as drier air draws down the column behind fropa.

The weekend finishes dry as surface high pressure ridges across the Quad State in the wake of the duly departed front, underneath a more zonal flow pattern aloft. The high soon shifts east Monday in similar fashion, and return flow southerlies establish. The NBM starts up warm advection/overrunning shower chances by as early as late Monday, as our next big system to watch takes shape in the Desert Southwest area.

All eyes have been focused on this system's evolution for awhile now, and continue to paint the mid week as our next best potential for severe weather as it begins to track this direction. The 12Z modeling is no different, but a trend to look to more of a Wednesday time frame vs Tuesday is beginning to emerge or at least hinting around. That would be excepting a more aggressive warm sector emergence Tuesday-Tuesday night, and any related storm risk thereof. Regardless, the parent storm looks to sync together with certainly highest rain chances incoming Wednesday afternoon-evening, as the broader synoptic features make their sweep across the Mississippi Valley. Preceding 15% storm risk for all severe hazards in play seems about right until the system nears in time for more modeling precision.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Temporary reductions in CIGS/VSBYS will remain possible a few more hours, despite the strongest storm threat having just departed. A cold front's soon passage shifts winds to west to northwest before diminishing overnight. Drier air incoming thereafter will work to scatter bases, but residual ground moisture from rains may offer MIFG or the potential for VSBYS to reduce in patchy fog. Tmrw should see a safe resumption of Visual Flight Rules as high pressure provides tranquil flight weather conditions.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.