textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Up and down temperatures today through the weekend. Warmer next week. 50s nearly guaranteed Monday and Tuesday for most of the area.

- Dry through the weekend and then rain chances come back Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast is messy after Wednesday due to model discrepancy.

- The warmer temperatures will really aid snowmelt processes through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

We're still in northwest flow aloft today that will gradually deamplify and relax over the weekend. Warmer temperatures are expected today ahead of a cold front that will swing through with a clipper system that will pass to our northeast. NBM shows SEMO, the KY Purchase Region, and the southern KY Pennyrile at a greater than 50% chance of seeing 50+ degrees today. Expect breezy northwest winds along and behind the front later today.

It will be colder again tomorrow behind the front as sfc high pressure moves through the upper Midwest and turns winds to the northeast. The chances of seeing 40+ degrees is essentially confined to western portions of SEMO. As this sfc high moves through the Ohio Valley winds turn back to the south on Sunday kicking off a warming trend through Tuesday. Sunday's highs will be similar to today's. Monday though, NBM has a majority of the area at a greater than 90% chance of seeing 50+ with the exception of the Evansville Tri-State which has a 30-70% chance of 50+. Most of SEMO, the Purchase Region, and southern Pennyrile have a greater than 50% chance of seeing 60+ on Monday. Tuesday is even better with majority of the area at a greater than 60% chance of 60+ degrees with the exception of the Evansville Tri-State again, which has a 30-50% chance of 60+. West of Poplar Bluff even has a 30-40% chance of 70+! Lows are above freezing across the board Monday night and Tuesday night.

A weakening southern stream trof moves along the Gulf Coast Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances ramp up Tuesday into Tuesday evening (40- 60%) and then a cold front comes through late Tuesday night. Right now NBM lingers rain chances into Wednesday afternoon (15-25%), beyond that model discrepancy keeps weak PoPs (15-20%) through Thursday afternoon and increases them again (20-30%) Thursday evening into Friday afternoon. This is a messy time period that will hopefully resolve in the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Clear skies and light to calm winds have led to some light fog development at CGI this morning. Fog should burn off with sunrise. Winds will pick up today with the passage of a cold front and will switch around to the northwest with gusts to around 20-25 kts at times. This afternoon an MVFR cloud deck will move into the area from the north. This deck will continue to move south and will move out of the area by tomorrow morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.