textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix will impact the region Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with Winter Weather Advisories for portions of the Quad State for snow and wintry mix concerns, which may have impacts lingering into the Tuesday morning commute.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire week with lows each night falling well into the 20s and even upper teens in some locations.

- Dry weather will return for the middle of the week, followed by another chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 427 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

On the synoptic scale, fairly zonal flow is positioned to the east as high pressure is moving through the Midwest. A positively tilted mid-level trough is positioned over the Front Range this morning with a mid-level disturbance quickly crossing the Central Plains today. Low pressure is organizing off the Texas coast with moisture from this system pulled into the Deep South. Locally, low clouds ahead of the Plains system are tracking through early this morning.

The main weather feature for the week remains the wintry mix event this evening through early Tuesday. The Plains system approaches northern portions of SEMO/SIL late this afternoon with snow. Also late afternoon, moisture from the south is pulled northeastward into southern portions of SEMO and far SW Kentucky initially as mostly rain. A 150 kt jet streak approaches and is positioned such that the Quad State is in the left exit region this evening, favoring development. Many models fill in the gap between the two areas of precipitation during the evening hours. Areas near the Ohio River and to the south have potential for mixing of sleet and freezing rain (with limited ice accumulation) in the evening hours. With the greater potential for some mixing of ice, which can prove treacherous even in small amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory remains for most of Western Kentucky and nearby portions of SEMO/SIL. A Winter Weather Advisory was added for SWIN due to greater potential to reach 2 inches of snow as the trough has more time to phase and produce higher totals by then. An SPS was continued for SIL due to greater uncertainty in snowfall, as multiple models produce dry air subsidence that sharply limits QPF. Several models produce a SW to NE oriented line of greater frontogenetical forcing that can produce a quick burst of an inch an hour rates in the evening, but confidence is limited in positioning of this feature.

Models have sped up departure of this system, with precipitation ending before sunrise. Lingering impacts can remain through the Tuesday morning commute. High pressure moves through on Tuesday with any areas with snow cover struggling to reach freezing. Southerly flow Wednesday lifts temperatures to near 40 which should help clear up snow cover. A cold frontal passage moves through Wednesday night with the parent low way to the northeast, likely keeping conditions dry locally.

Models are still rather divided as to a late week system which has a bit of similarity to the early week system as a mid-level trough moves across the Plains and a system is off the Gulf Coast bringing rain to the Deep South. At the moment the forecast is a bit warmer than the early week system and the NBM begins the system as a wintry mix Friday changing to rain later in the day, but ensemble spread is very high.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR clouds cover much of the Quad State but are pulling back from the east as drier air pushes in. Cigs improve to VFR midday. Winds are fairly light through the forecast period. A wintry mix is projected with snow moving in from the west and a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet from the south this evening. Vsby drops accompany heavier precipitation and cigs down to IFR are projected for the evening/overnight hours. Freezing rain/sleet mixing are more likely along a line from roughly Sikeston, Missouri to Madisonville, Kentucky.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ087-091. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ090-094. MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ112-114. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ007>011-013>016-018>021. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ001>006.