textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30-60% chance of daily showers and storms this weekend. A strong storm or two is possible this evening and overnight across southwest Indiana. Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday evening for most of the region. Daily high temperatures trend more into the lower 90s through early next week with heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

- Northerly flow may briefly cause moderate unhealthy air quality conditions across the far north on Sunday while the latter half of next week may pose a more impactful risk due to the ongoing Northwestern Ontario wildfire smoke.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The Quad State region will sit on the inflection point between troughing to the east and ridging to the west (across the Rockies). This will allow for northwest flow into the region aloft. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop each afternoon during peak heating through Sunday; however, the convection may be a bit more focused on Sunday as a frontal boundary gradually sags southward through the region.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this evening through the early overnight hours as the aformentioned frontal boundary approaches from the north; however, there has be trend toward rapidly weakening the line as it pushes into southwest Indiana. Still can't rule out a few damaging wind gusts, but the trend is toward a less widespread severe event. A much stronger cold front will sag south through the area on Tuesday. Instability is forecast to be 2000-3000 J/kg with deep layer shear increasing to around 20-30 kts, especially across southern IL into southwest IN. The combination of increased wind speeds aloft and the instability, will lead to another round of strong to severe storms. Currently, the greatest wind shear is expected to remain to the northeast of the area, but it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on over the next few days. In fact, southwest IN is already highlighted with a slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday. At an early glance, damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats.

Outside of any thunderstorm activity, heat index values are expected to be in the 100-105 degree range through at least Tuesday as temperatures warm into the low 90s and dewpoints run in the 70s. In fact, some locations could even see heat index values approach or exceed 110 degrees by Tuesday. This has lead to the issuance of a Heat Advisory for much of the area through Tuesday.

Wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires will likely become an issue at times through next week. In fact, it may become more widespread across the Quad State toward the middle to end of next week with a more northerly component to the wind aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Scattered showers and storms continue to clear the area this evening with very little impact to the terminals. Skies should go clear overnight with light winds. A front is sagging south through the area and will stall across the area tomorrow. This will serve as a focus for storm development tomorrow afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080>082- 084>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>017-021-022.