textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected (50-80%) today over the southern half of the region, with lesser chances farther north and west. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out this afternoon, mainly over west Kentucky.

- After a dry day Friday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread back northeast across the region Saturday and Saturday night. Widespread showers and storms are forecast late Sunday through early Monday, as a cold front approaches and eventually moves through the Quad State.

UPDATE

Issued at 706 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

With the convection pushing south of the Ohio River, the Flood Watch was cancelled a bit early. Also removed the early morning severe mention from the Key Messages.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Some showers and a few thunderstorms are finally developing and/or moving into the southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. The existing activity moving in from the north appears to be elevated and is not severe, and the fresher development to its south will likely be elevated as well. The environment is still robust with 0-3km SRH 300-400J/kg and 0-1km SRH of 200-300J/kg. With much of this apparent shear in the lowest kilometer, it is reasonable to assume that the existing convection is elevated and not tapping the greatest shear. However, with such a robust environment we cannot discount the severe risk. Tornadoes and damaging winds would still be the main concerns.

The Flash Flood Watch continues through 8 AM over southwest Indiana, as showers and thunderstorm finally begin to push into the Watch area. Confidence in widespread heavy rainfall is decreasing, but some localized flash flooding is still possible. The heaviest rain overnight is expected over northwest Kentucky, where 1-2" of rainfall is expected. Some isolated flooding issues cannot be ruled out there, as well.

These storms will progress eastward as they slowly develop farther south across the area through sunrise. The synoptic- scale cold front is back over northern Missouri at this time, and is not expected to push through the Quad State until this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible along and ahead of the cold front, even as the outflow boundary from overnight convection likely pushes south into Tennessee later this morning. MLCAPE could climb up to near 2000J/kg over the Bootheel and west Kentucky by early afternoon. Wind fields will be thoroughly muddled and the low-level and deep-layer shear will be weak. A stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out over southeast Missouri and west Kentucky this afternoon, but locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns with any storms today.

The cold front should clear the entire region by 00Z and that should bring an end to the thunderstorm threat. However, a few showers may linger into the evening along the Arkansas and Tennessee border regions.

Surface high pressure will keep the area dry and cooler Friday and likely Saturday as well. We still have some small PoPs in southeast Missouri Saturday, but the rest of the Quad State will definitely be dry. South winds will return Saturday into Saturday night as another storm system takes shape over the central Plains. Increasing south winds will bring dewpoints back to the lower 70s on Sunday and that will support a good chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Widespread convection is expected Sunday night as a cold front moves through the region. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rainfall will also be a possibility.

The entire area should be dry by Monday afternoon and evening, and dry conditions are expected through mid-week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

An area of showers with a few thunderstorms will push south of KOWB in the next hour or two, and then move through KCGI and KPAH by 18Z. Brief IFR conditions will be possible with the heavier SHRA/TSRA, but MVFR conditions will be more common. A cold front will catch up to the convection and should clear KOWB and KPAH by 18Z. Some lighter showers may stream over KOWB and KPAH into the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081- 082-085>088. KY...None.