textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend begins today with temperatures rising 15 to 20 degrees above normal early this week. Highs will be back in the 80s on Tuesday, followed by a slight cool down for the latter half of the week.

- Breezy conditions today will pose an elevated fire weather danger risk with RH values between 25 to 30%. Although moisture significantly increases Monday and Tuesday, wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph are likely. There is a 60 to 70% chance of exceeding 35 mph Tuesday afternoon.

- Multiple rounds of beneficial showers and thunderstorms begins Tuesday night and continues through Saturday. There is a 50 to 60% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain by Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Sfc high pressure has moved east of the Appalachian Mountains this morning, allowing for the start of a warming trend. High temperatures today will be back near 70 degrees. Although moisture advection will begin to occur with southerly return flow, deep-layer mixing will cause dewpoints to rise a bit slower than what is being progged by the NBM. Have trended dewpoints lower that yields RH values between 25 to 30% during peak heating. Due to the ongoing dry soil conditions, fire weather danger will be elevated as an increase in the pressure gradient will support wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures rising 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Highs will be back in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees on Monday, followed by the 80s on Tuesday. Gradient winds will also be stronger with gusts between 25 to 35 mph. NBM again is likely underestimating the mixing as the EPS supports a 60 to 70% chance of exceeding 35 mph on Tuesday. No pcpn is expected until Wednesday when a cold front begins to approach the FA.

Model guidance has trended slower with the transition into a very wet unsettled weather pattern, as multiple rounds of beneficial showers and thunderstorms are now progged from Wednesday through Saturday. The initial round peaks at a 80% chance or better midday Wednesday on the NBM as the cold front sweeps through while the 0z model runs have trended drier/lower with the probability of pcpn. 500 to 700 J/kg of MLCAPE is progged east of the Mississippi, but meager sfc-6 km shear of 20 to 25 kts will keep the severe weather potential limited. The aformentioned frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Thursday, supporting additional intervals of showers and thunderstorms into early Friday. By Friday morning, there is a 50 to 60% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding 2 inches. Despite the cloud cover, high temperatures will still be above normal ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with Friday being the warmest day.

One final disturbance moves through on Saturday that has the potential to bring another inch or more of rainfall. The ECMWF/CMC both show a closed 500 mb low located over the Great Lakes region Saturday morning while the GFS has a open shortwave stretched out into the central Plains. Both translate to another cold front eventually moving through Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Its still too early to know the details of the thermodynamics, but the kinematics certainly look more supportive of convection as the nose of a 500 mb jet max approaches beneath the right entrance region of an upper level jet that will favor stronger lift. Despite the uncertainty, the baroclinic zone is certainly more impressive with temperatures cooling to more seasonable by next Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast overnight. Southwest winds pick up in the late morning/afternoon before decreasing after sunset on Sunday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.