textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will feature increasing high clouds through the day along with seasonably warm temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and below normal humidity levels.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday and continue into the weekend, peaking Friday night into Saturday (60-90%). There is a low end threat for a few stronger storms (5% or less).

- Daily chances (20-50%) of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms may continue into the middle of next week along with seasonably warm and humid conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A shortwave will dive southeast from the Northern Plains today into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday into Saturday. A plume of higher moisture (pwats of 2+ inches) currently extending from eastern Kansas into Arkansas will spread eastward into our region ahead of the shortwave. An initial band of showers may spread across part of our cwa Friday morning/afternoon but the main forcing from the wave holds off until Friday evening/overnight. MLCAPE values may reach 2000 j/kg in parts of Missouri late Friday afternoon and evening, with the highest chance of this residing back to our west in south central and southwest parts of the state. 0-6km shear will also increase to at least 25-30 kts. Thus a few stronger storms can't be ruled out, mainly for portions of southeast Missouri.

The upper trough axis swings through Saturday bringing a good chance for showers and storms, especially for northern and eastern parts of our cwa. The primary instability axis may be off to our east by Saturday afternoon, which would be where the main threat for stronger storms would reside. It's possible that it hangs up a bit to at least give the KY Pennyrile or southwest IN a window for some stronger convection, although shear doesn't look quite as good on Saturday compared to Friday. Again, talking low end marginal (5%) at best.

Probabilities for at least 0.5" of rain Fri-Sat (via the NBM) range from 40 to 80%, highest near I-64 and in the KY Pennyrile and lowest across southeast MO. LREF probabilities are about 10-20% lower. There's roughly a 50% chance at picking up at least 1" across the EVV-Tri State region, with lower probabilities further southwest.

The upper trough forms a cut off low Sunday into early next week, but models vary on placement. The GFS shunts it further east over the Appalachians by Tuesday while the ECMWF keeps it over the TN Valley through that time. The placement will dictate how much of our region hangs onto daily rain chances (which would primarily be focused during the afternoon and early evening). West KY seems to have the highest potential.

Temperatures this weekend will be below normal (lower 80s) before gradually modifying through next week. Upper height rises by mid to late week may push temperatures back to 90 by Thursday, with the LREF suggesting a 60-80% chance of that.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Fog at a few sites, such as KCGI and KPAH, will improve within an hour or two, with VFR conditions expected the remainder of the day. Winds remain light, only rising to around 5kts out of the east during the afternoon. A mix of low end VFR clouds and high clouds is forecast today.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.