textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly but mostly sunny weather is forecast for Thanksgiving into Friday.

- A potent disturbance will impact the area Saturday. The precipitation will begin as snow or a rain/snow mix in the morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible along and north of Interstate 64 Saturday. Significant travel impacts are unlikely, but isolated slushy spots on the roads cannot be ruled out.

- Chilly, below normal temperatures will continue into early next week. Another system may bring additional chances for wintry precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, but forecast confidence is very low.

UPDATE

Issued at 332 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Blustery and chilly conditions will continue this afternoon in the wake of this morning's cold front passage, but gradient winds have begun to slowly relax. As a result have canceled the Wind Advisory for White/Wabash Valleys a bit early. For the next couple of days, Canadian high pressure will settle over the region, bringing chilly but mostly sunny conditions for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees below normal.

Another potent disturbance will develop across the central Great Plains and move into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. While the local forecast area will be on the warm side of the system, there looks to be enough lingering cold air in place across the area to allow for the precipitation to begin as light snow or a rain/snow mix.

Models are in pretty good agreement with some light snow accumulations across the far northwestern/northern parts of the forecast area (mainly along and northwest of a line from Perryville MO to Mount Vernon IL to Petersburg IN). In these spots, the latest forecast shows a slushy 1 or 2" of snow. This is pretty close to the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean. Despite prevailing southeast winds, thermal profiles look supportive for wet-bulb cooling to occur in these locations, which would allow temperatures to fall to or just below freezing for a few hours Saturday morning. This would result in snow being the predominate precipitation type, and when any accumulations would occur.

Given the marginal temperatures, expected snow-liquid ratios will be quite low, only 4:1 to 6:1. Adding the warm ground temperatures, thinking the great majority of any accumulation should be on grassy surfaces only. Further south, a trace of snow at most is forecast. Major travel impacts remain unlikely locally, but given the slight uptick in snowfall amounts, a few isolated slushy spots cannot be ruled out Saturday morning mainly along and north of Interstate 64.

By Saturday afternoon, temperatures will be well-above freezing, and everywhere will be seeing rain, ending the small window for very minor travel impacts. We will see a lull in activity Saturday night into Sunday, with a small chance of light rain or a brief rain/snow mix.

The next potential system to watch will be Monday night into Tuesday. As it stands now, these system would have more cold air to work with as H5 troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS. Models are showing a southern-stream disturbance passing through the Tennessee River Valley, and this would be a favorable placement for wintry precipitation in our area, especially along the KY/TN border. Since we are nearly a week away from this disturbance, it will be something to watch for now, as the forecast could still change drastically.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 332 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

With low pressure moving away and high pressure moving in as nightfall approaches, we'll lose the steepest gradient and winds will relax overnight, with gusts diminishing. While lower VFR bases scatter this evening, an increase in high level clouds is expected after midnight...with SCT-BKN250 into the day tmrw. We'll pick up the winds then too, but not like today; gusts to 20 KTs are possible in the NE (KEVV/KOWB).

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.