textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected today with relative humidity values dropping into the 20%-30% range along with continued drought and gusty winds.

- A brief, light wintry mix will be possible (15-20% chance) very late tonight into early Wednesday morning before quickly transitioning to rain around sunrise. A few slippery stretches are possible through sunrise, especially over southeast Missouri.

- Confidence continues to grow in portions of the Quad State seeing impactful wintry weather this weekend with prospects of 4+ inches of snow now increased to the 30-50% range. Current thinking is that southeast Missouri into western Kentucky would see the greatest probabilities (closer to 50%), but that an easily shift over the next few days!

- Confidence is high that arctic air will filter in with the winter storm this weekend. Temperatures are likely (70-100% chance) to run about 20 degrees below normal for Friday through at least Monday!! That would put high temperatures in the teens to low 20s with wind chill readings falling into the single digits above and below zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Very dry air in place, continued drought conditions along with gusty winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon through Tuesday.

A brief warm up is expected for Wednesday, along with a rain/snow mixture (15-20% chance) early Wednesday morning before quickly transitioning to rain by mid morning. This will largely be a result of warm air advection into the Quad State through the day Wednesday and ahead of the next cold front. Thermal profiles suggest there may be a lack of ice in the clouds over SEMO and portions of southern Illinois, which may allow for some very light freezing drizzle/freezing rain at the onset, possibly mixed with snow elsewhere with a bit deeper moisture. It is possible that temperatures warm enough before the precipitation begins to limit any travel impacts, but it is worth noting for the start of the day. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 40s, so any early day impacts will quickly improve as the precipitation transitions over to all rain.

Models continue to shows a sprawling/strong surface high pressure system building across the northern Plains and upper Midwest Thursday through Saturday as troughing lingers over the eastern CONUS. The high pressure system will allow colder air to continue filtering south into the Quad State, but it will also bring in drier air...likely resulting in a sharp gradient in precipitation amounts on the northern fringes.

The upper-level jet support lines up a little better with this forecast update, keeping the Quad in the right-entrance region, allowing for broadscale lift. None of the model guidance really shows a wrapped up low by any means, but it is fairly easy to pick out in the wind fields, with a track along near the Gulf Coast. Guidance has aligned a bit better with the GFS finally lifting the precipitation a bit farther to the northwest vs. the previous runs, which basically allowed the dry air to win over the Quad State with very little snowfall. That was one of the holdout models/outlier, but the northwest shift does at least increase confidence a bit more in the snow forecast and impacts. The previous forecast had roughly a 15-25% chance of portions of the area seeing 4+ inches of snow and now that has actually increase to around 30-50%, with the greatest chance being across southeast Missouri into western Kentucky. Chances taper off to the northwest of those locations as they will likely be influenced more by the approaching high and drier air. The good news for now is there is only a low probability (10-15% chance) of seeing a glaze of ice along the AR and TN border in our CWA. Another notable change in the guidance is that the EC deterministic run has slowed the system down a bit with the heavier precipitation starting on Saturday and lingering into Sunday. Again, these are the latest trends in the guidance and I would definitely anticipate some changes/fluctuations in the snow forecast/precipitation types over at least the next 24 to 48 hours or so!

There's better confidence in very cold air pushing into the region Friday through Monday of next week. In fact, there is a high probability (70-100% chance) that the Quad State will see temperatures about 20 degrees below normal. That would put high sin the teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits. Of course any snow on the ground could cause the temperatures to fall further. Wind chill readings will likely approach Cold Weather Advisory or possibly even Extreme Cold Warning criteria!! Just another big impact worth discussing outside of the snow chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected with this TAF issuance; however some mid clouds will brush through the MVN TAF site over the next few hours and additional clouds will develop farther south toward the end of this TAF issuance. There is a small chance for precipitation after 09Z Wednesday; however, confidence is low enough to keep out of the TAF with this update. LLWS is likely at each TAF site tonight as an inversion sets up with warm air advecting into the area. Winds are forecast to be around 50kts just above the inversion!

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.