textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate rain will end from west to east this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible tonight.

- A major warmup is expected Monday through Thursday this week, with high temperatures climbing 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

- The next chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

An area of steady light to moderate rain associated with the deformation band of the surface low to the south will continue to move across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. Further north, more scattered advection-driven activity continues across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Rain will come to an end this afternoon as the surface low moves away from the region to the east and surface high pressure moves into the area. Additional rainfall amounts will range from 0.25-0.75" over west KY to 0.10-0.25" further north and west. Cannot rule out some patchy fog tonight, especially if skies remain clear.

Monday through Thursday this week will see some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far. Mild Pacific zonal flow aloft and high pressure over the southeast CONUS will combine to bring temperatures about 15 to 25 degrees above normal during this time, yielding highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Towards the end of the week, ensemble guidance is showing a potentially robust surface low developing over the central and northern Great Plains and moving into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This would put the local region into the warm sector. Mentionable PoPs return to the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening as WAA showers move into the region the warm front associated with the surface low arrives...with showers and thunderstorms possible Friday into Friday night with the passage of the cold front.

While it is a bit early to indicate with confidence there will be an appreciable severe risk, the synoptic setup as it stands would be conceptually favorable for some kind of risk during this time. Additionally, some of the machine learning guidance is indicating small severe probabilities, so this will need to be monitored closely in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Widespread IFR/LIFR restrictions due to rain, low stratus and fog will continue through 16-20z when conditions will slowly improve as rain departs to the east. Late tonight, fog, some possibly dense depending on sky cover, will be a concern, especially after 06z Monday. Winds will be from the N-NE around 5-10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible during this afternoon. Winds will become calm late tonight as high pressure settles over the region.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.