textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms (20-30%) persist today mainly along and west of a Paducah to Mt. Vernon, IL line

- A better chance for showers and storms (50-70%) is anticipated early tomorrow morning and then again possibly in the afternoon. Some risk for severe thunderstorms (wind/hail) exists along with a small risk for flooding due to locally heavy rains.

- Drier air arrives Tuesday through much of the week, allowing for seasonable temperatures with little to no rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A fairly sharp theta-e gradient sits northwest to southeast over the area today with dewpoints in the low 70s at Poplar Bluff and upper 50s at Owensboro. Building, but still modest west to southwest mid to lower level flow is expected to pick up as a shortwave spins to the northwest slowly increasing lower level moisture. This modest frontogenetic forcing seems to be aiding in sparking thunderstorms southwest of St. Louis that are tracking very slowly to the east. At the rate of moisture return some of this may make it into the western half of the CWA this afternoon, although the HRRR/RAP are still pretty insistent it falls apart as it moves east due to diminishing available moisture. There is enough probability they have enough to work with to keep going to continue lower end PoPs from Paducah westward. Instability is a little stronger than yesterday where moisture is available but shear is very weak. If any severe emerges this afternoon would be in the form of very brief pulse hail or localized wind.

Guidance is more consistent on developing convection to our northwest late tonight and very slowly tracking it southwest. CAMs show a little bit of bowing segment/organization as west to northwest flow aloft starts to pick up through the night. With light winds overnight and modest cloud cover a strong radiation inversion looks pretty likely (with fog potential as weak moisture return continues). If storm organization can grow sufficiently though into bowing segments some wind and hail threat would be possible with this activity. The HRRR/HREF type guidance sweeps convection through in the morning overturning the airmass but the GFS throws a weak wave in the northwest flow over us in the afternoon and initiates convection on a more fresh and humid airmass with 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and sufficient northwest flow aloft in the deeper layers for storm organization. I kind of forsee a little bit of a mix of both with maybe a little less organized line of early morning convection that leaves behind a still fairly soupy low level airmass that allows for some afternoon redevelopment. Will also be watching the NW/SE oriented boundary below northwest flow aloft for heavy/training rainfall with the highest risk of that in southeast Missouri.

By Monday night strengthening high pressure to our northwest sweeps the humid airmass out and we get into a very blocky overall pattern overhead and too the west that still looks likely to produce several days of stable and dry weather with reasonable humidity and seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Convection is the primary flight concern today. A cluster of storms southwest of St. Louis is being monitored to possibly approach CGI/MVN and vicinity by late this afternoon. There are mixed signals on whether the airmass will be supportive enough by then to sustain it as it moves east, but it appears close enough to include a short Prob30 window at a few spots. A more consistent signal exists for thunderstorms overnight/early Monday morning. Activity looks for now to be relatively slow moving/back-building which may cause extended impacts at terminals. Have prevailing thunder with lower vis in tempo groups but may be too optimistic depending on how well organized the activity gets. Trailing rain and at least some visibility restriction would be likely behind this til 16-18z or so. Best chances are at CGI/MVN/PAH and west of there with lower probs at EVV/OWB and neighboring airfields.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.