textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will continue through Monday, followed by a return to above normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with lingering chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. Isolated stronger storms Monday night will be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, especially over SEMO.

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms increase in coverage on Thursday, with the greatest risk of heavier rainfall Thursday night into Friday. Total rainfall between 1 to 3 inches is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

More seasonable conditions have settled over the region with northerly winds advecting in a dry airmass. A weak sfc ridge of high pressure builds into the FA tonight with a weakness in the pressure gradient favoring more tranquil conditions. MOS guidance is on the cooler side of the NBM for Monday morning lows, as there is some uncertainty on how much the boundary layer will decouple tonight. Leaned slightly lower with a blend of the NBM 10th percentile as low dewpoints combined with radiational cooling should support most locations falling into the low to mid 30s.

Monday will start off dry as a warm front remains on track to move through Monday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The CAMs differ on how quickly the boundary layer saturates late Monday, as the bulk of the pcpn is more likely to hold off until the evening when WAA begins to ramp up. The CSU-MLP is hinting at the potential for a small to marginally severe hail risk with the HRRR supporting a sharp MUCAPE gradient of 500 to 1500 J/kg, 6.5 to 7.0 C/km 850-500 mb lapse rates, and 40-50 kts of sfc-6 km shear. The parameters are the most favorable over SEMO where isolated stronger storms will be possible. Storms may linger into Tuesday morning until WAA subsides.

As the frontal boundary sags back south and becomes more stationary, a lull will occur late Tuesday into Wednesday with showers and isolated thunderstorms turning more intermittent. By Wednesday afternoon, the main focus will be an amplified 500 mb positively tilted trough over the SW CONUS that will eject towards the FA by the end of the week. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the evolution of sfc low pressure, but the general consensus is now for a warm front to lift back north on Thursday with showers and isolated thunderstorms, followed by a period of heavier rainfall late Thursday night into Friday in the wake of a cold front. The probability remains high for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across most of the FA while uncertainty increases in the 2 to 3 inch range.

Seasonable temperatures trend back above normal Tuesday through Friday into the upper 60s to lower 70s withs lows in the 50s. Another cool blast arrives next weekend with temperatures returning to near normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1051 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Sunny skies will prevail across the region this afternoon with VFR conditions. North winds between 5-10 kts turn light & variable tonight. High clouds begin to build in from the southwest Monday morning with east winds around 4-7 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.