textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures will nudge slightly above normal over the weekend and continue with above normal trends into next week.

- There is a 40-60% chance the area will see rainfall in excess of 1 inch this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 509 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The post frontal passage air mass is well in place with the return of seasonal temperatures to the region. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s will persist thru tmrw. By this weekend, we'll be more solidly in the 50s area-wide, and will be poised to see 60s return to the forecast next week. These milder temperatures look to stay for awhile, as both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks project an above normal temperature regime.

The primary sensible weather feature of the forecast, excepting the mild temperatures, will be this weekend's rain event. The day-to-day trending of the models has been to shift the track's focus a little more southward, and today's 12z deterministic and ensemble blend solutions continue that trend. As a result, the NBM now projects from 0.75" across our far north, to just above 2" in parts of our far south. The probabilistic NBM's output suggests a broad 40 (north) to 60 (south) percent chance that we'll see storm average rainfall totals in excess of one inch. The wetting rains of the weekend should help, along with the warmer temperature regime, to disperse of any remaining snow piles and may also help mitigate our ongoing D0-D2 drought profile.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Ongoing light N-NW winds will become light and variable overnight through 15-18z as high pressure becomes centered over the area. After 15-18z, winds will become light from the E or ESE at 3-5 kts. SCT-BKN high cirrus decks will be present throughout the forecast period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.