textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread dense fog will continue into this morning, and a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CST for the entire region.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected today through Thursday, with high temperatures climbing 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

- The next chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures and a lingering small (10-30%) chance of rain are forecast through next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Dense fog has already developed across most of the area, as high pressure remains centered over region combined with calm winds and a saturated surface layer inversion. As the surface high shifts east of the region this morning, southerly winds will increase and, combined with increasing high cloud coverage, the fog will dissipate from west to east. Cannot rule out needing to extend ongoing Dense Fog Advisory past its current 15z expiration time by a few hours, especially in southwest IN and in the KY Pennyrile.

Once, the fog dissipates, very mild and dry conditions are expected today through Wednesday. The surface high pressure will become centered over the southeast CONUS, funneling warm southerly flow into the region. Additionally, mild Pacific zonal flow spread across the Midwest. Temperatures at 850 mb will rise to around 8-10C, in the 90th to 95th percentiles. This will allow temperatures to soar well above normal by 15 to 25 degrees. This will yield high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s today and Tuesday and the lower to middle 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s, also well above normal.

Thursday into Friday, model guidance remains consistent with a compact H5 trough moving through the Central Plains, with surface low rapidly deepening as it moves into the Upper Midwest Thursday night into Friday. Mentionable PoPs associated with increasing WAA will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with a more focused area of showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the surface cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

There remains a signal for strong or possibly severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures into the lower to middle 70s and dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 50s on Thursday afternoon will aid in surface-based instability developing in a sheared environment. The latest long range ensemble mean gives a 30-50% of MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values over 30 kts Thursday afternoon and evening, which would yield potentially organized convection. The CIPS analog and machine learning guidance also still depicts low end severe-weather probabilities. Will continue to monitor as we go through the week.

After the system exits the region, temperatures will trend back toward typical late February values Friday into next weekend. NBM guidance maintains low end PoPs (10-30%) during this time, but this is likely due to timing differences among the arrival of a weak disturbance or two in the weakly zonal but slightly anticyclonic synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Widespread LIFR to IFR fog or freezing fog and associated low stratus will gradually dissipate between 14-17z this morning as southerly winds increase. The rest of the period will see steady S to SW winds at 5-10 kts with increasing high cirrus clouds coverage.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.