textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of thunderstorms is on track to move east through the region this morning between 5AM to 12PM. A few storms may become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and a isolated tornado being the main risk. Between a half to one inch of rainfall is expected.

- Intervals of numerous showers and thunderstorms will move through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. The highest risk of widespread rain is Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with a 70 to 80% chance of exceeding one inch. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms are all possible.

- Well above normal temperatures return to more seasonable during the latter half of the week. Quiet but breezy weather conditions are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of thunderstorms associated with a MCS will continue to grow upscale this morning over Missouri before impacting the FA between 11 to 18z. Sfc low pressure continues to deepen over the Great Lakes region and is allowing for an influx of moisture ahead of a trailing cold front. MLCAPE is initially progged to be 800 to 1200 J/kg when convection arrives from the west with pockets of 300 to 600 J/kg of SBCAPE. Lapse rates will also be around 6.5 C/km with 35 to 45 kts of effective bulk shear along with 200 to 250 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Compared to yesterday, there is slightly better instability and steeper lapse rates that may be enough to fuel storms a bit longer.

The CAMs are in agreement that the line of storms will outrun the better lift associated with the right entrance region of a 140 kt jet max at 250 mb near STL. Better height falls will also be occurring to the west with a 500 mb trough located over the central Plains. While this would favor a weakening storm mode as convection pushes east across the Mississippi, the parameters are high enough to support a low end severe weather risk. Damaging wind gusts remains the greatest concern with storms, but the latest HRRR that has been consistent shows storms remaining more sfc based with 30 kts of sfc-1km shear that would pose an isolated tornado risk as well.

After the initial line moves through, stratiform rain will continue for a few hours into the afternoon with rumbles of thunder. Given PWAT's around 1.25 to 1.50 inches, heavy downpours may lead to some minor flooding issues with ponding on roadways. Between a half to one inch of rainfall is progged for most of the FA. Fropa with the cold front eventually occurs Saturday evening that will allow for more tranquil and cooler conditions on Sunday.

The flow aloft turns more zonal to start off the new week allowing for temperatures to quickly rebound with highs potentially nearing 80 degrees again on Tuesday. While WAA thundershowers may begin to develop late Monday into Monday night, the main risk of numerous showers and thunderstorms does not impact the FA until Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon when a 500 mb cutoff low ejects northeast into the southern Plains and interacts with northern stream energy digging across the Plains.

While Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night has been the focus for some severe weather potential contingent on destabilization with a discrete storm mode, some of the ML guidance continues to suggest better instability and moisture may overlap on Wednesday. Both the GFS/ECMWF show a line of storms plowing through ahead of a cold front. Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon will also pose the greatest risk of heavy rainfall with a 70 to 80% chance of exceeding one inch. Overall, heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms will all be possible. For the latter half of the week, quiet but breezy conditions are expected with temperatures returning to more seasonable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Not much change from previous thinking other than to delay the arrival of the convection an hour or so at most locations. There is a better signal for gusty winds with the leading line, especially at KPAH. Also, there is a better signal for some convection near the cold front, primarily at KPAH.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.