textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be much lower today at roughly a 20-30% chance, mainly over SEMO this afternoon and evening.

- A better chance for showers and storms (40-60%) is anticipated late tonight into Monday along with some risk for severe storms, with wind and hail the main threat.

- Drier air arrives Tuesday through much of the week, allowing for seasonable temperatures with little to no rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A brief break in the showers and storms can be expected across much of the Quad State area today; however, some convection may move into SEMO later this afternoon into this evening. Most locations will remain dry today. Again, only looking at roughly a 20-30% chance of showers and storms this afternoon and evening over southeast MO.

A surface low and associated frontal boundaries will approach the area late tonight and Monday, allowing for an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity (40-60% chance). Mid-level lapse rates steepen a bit more during that time period (around 6-7C/km), allowing instability to increase closer to 1000-2000 J/kg. That, combined with shear values around 25-30kts, will allow for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the area. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. As for timing, hi-res guidance shows a round very late tonight into Monday morning with yet another round developing Monday afternoon. Nearly all the guidance has storm arriving late tonight into early Monday; however, the afternoon convection is less certain on placement and coverage.

The chances for showers diminish Tuesday through at least Friday morning with less humid conditions in place. This will be a result of a cold front drifting south through the area and dry high pressure building in from the north. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s to low 80s through the whole forecast period, but the more noticeable drop in humidity will arrive around Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions expected through this TAF issuance. The next low-end chance for showers and storms will arrive at the CGI TAF site late this afternoon into this evening with another round toward the end of the TAF issuance. Added showers to the western TAF sites, but overall confidence remains low on exact evolution of any convection today and tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.