textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog, possibly widespread expected tonight into early Monday.

- Rain is expected Monday through Tuesday with amounts of a quarter inch to 1 inch.

- Dry and colder temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday.

- Another round of rain possible this weekend, mainly late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows overcast skies over much of the forecast area. Portions of southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky are starting to see some clearing however. The low stratus and fog is due to moisture trapped beneath a strong inversion just above 950mb. Areas beneath the cloud cover have seen nearly steady to slight temperature rises into the mid to upper 40s while areas that have cleared are seeing temperatures to almost 60 degrees. Model soundings and planviews suggest overcast skies will continue into tonight. Multiple guidances sources suggest fog development is likely again tonight. While confidence in placement for a potential dense fog advisory is still low at the current time, will continue to carry mention of dense fog in the NDFD and HWO.

Short term attention turns to the shortwave lifting out of the plains Monday. Precipitation associated wtih this system will expand northeast across the area beginning likely later in the day Monday for most areas. There has been a continued trend to see precipitation moving into SEMO earlier in the morning. Looking at forecast soundings and planviews there isn't much sign of instability and chances for thunderstorms will likely be pretty low. The forecast will continue to forgo the mention of thunder. Rain will continue through Monday night before coming to an end west to east Tuesday morning. The previous discussion mentioned some guidance continues rain chances into Tuesday night and there are still signals of this in the guidance. There may be periods of moderate to heavy rain Monday night tied strengthening low level convergence. Northwest portions of the forecast area are only expected to see QPF amounts of a quarter to half an inch while three quarters to 1 inch is expected for much of the rest of the area.

The cold front passage Tuesday night is expecting to bring dry conditions back to the area Wednesday through Friday. The dry airmass will also come with colder temperatures. High temperatures Wednesday will only warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s and low 40s to near 50 on Thanksgiving and Friday. Temperatures fall into the 20s Wednesday and Thursday night.

The weekend will bring a return to southerly flow and increasing temperatures while troughing becomes established across the western half of the country. Models are still in disagreement on the potential timing of individual waves of energy that eject from the base of this trough. The forecast continues to suggest rain chances making a return to the area as early as Saturday morning with the higher chances late Saturday through Sunday. Early Saturday, it may be just cold enough aloft for a mix of rain and snow across portions of southern Illinois before it changes over to rain. High temperatures will slowly rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday and low to mid 50s Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Poor flight conditions are expected to continue today and tonight although confidence is still somewhat low. Most of the dense fog has now lifted, but most terminals are still seeing IFR to LIFR ceilings. Recent satellite trends show some improvements in cloud cover although at this point, overcast skies remain at the terminals. While some scattering is forecast, there remains the possibility that broken to overcast skies rule. Low ceilings are expected tonight, again IFR to LIFR. Guidance continues to be aggressive in fog development yet again and the TAFs represent that with dense fog prevailing at most sites. Some sites may bounce around but would expect visibility restrictions to continue. Late in the period Monday, some limited improvements to cigs are possible with PROB30s for rain mainly after 15Z for CGI/PAH.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.