textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Low humidity, breezy northwest winds and low humidity may produce elevated fire danger this afternoon.

- After fairly seasonable temperatures, a significant warming trend will begin Friday, with well above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

- On and off 20-50% chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast late Thursday night into Friday morning, and late Friday night into Saturday, with the best chances across our northern and eastern counties.

- The approach of a cold front early next week will produce good chances (40-75%) of showers and thunderstorms in the Monday to Tuesday time frame.

UPDATE

Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Very dry air will filter into our region today behind a weak cold front, with afternoon humidity levels dropping to 20-25% in southeast Missouri, and 25-35% in areas east of the Mississippi River. With northwest winds at 10-15mph with some gusts around 20mph and ongoing drought conditions, we will continue to mention elevated fire conditions in the HWO.

High pressure will give us dry conditions and lots of sunshine through Thursday, with seasonable highs and a little below normal overnight lows through Thursday night. Increasing south winds Friday will bring much warmer temperatures, with the warming trend lasting through the weekend into Monday. Highs Saturday through Monday will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. We will also see increasing moisture, with dew points climbing into the lower to middle 60s over the weekend, and the middle to upper 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Models bring a weak upper level wave across mainly northern portions of the PAH forecast area late Thursday night into Friday morning as a warm front lifts north through our area. The model blend produces 20-50% chances of showers and storms across the northern two-thirds of our counties between late Thursday night into Friday morning. The frontal boundary will lay out north of our region, and with the approach of another upper wave, the model blend produces 30-50% chances of showers and storms late Friday night through Saturday across all but southern portions of southeast Missouri. A few isolated showers and storms will still be possible Saturday night across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, then chances retreat north of our region with the boundary. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.

By late Monday, models show a surface low over Minnesota with a cold front extending south and southwest into eastern Kansas and north Texas. The model blend keeps our area dry Monday morning, then spreads 20-40% chances of showers and storms into southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana Monday afternoon and evening. Chances spread east and gradually increase into Tuesday, with chances by Tuesday afternoon of 60-75% in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, and 40-60% in southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. Although more precise timing of the frontal passage is still in question, good chances of precipitation are likely the first half of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

SCT-BKN080 clouds will move south of the TAF sites by 16z, with clear skies then expected through the TAF period with no vsby restrictions. Light northwest winds will increase to around 10kts with gusts of 15-20kts by 16z, then decrease to around 5kts or less after 00z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.