textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms accompany a cold frontal passage late this evening through the night, primarily exiting our area by Friday morning. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but a few stronger storms could produce pockets of damaging winds along with brief heavy rainfall.

- Soupy conditions return Saturday afternoon and may linger into Sunday. Another round of showers and storms appears likely Saturday into Saturday night, and this may linger into at least the first half of Sunday. A few stronger storms are possible which includes the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- Early next week is trending cooler and less humid. There is a 70-90% chance at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday! This appears short-lived though as higher humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Shortwave troughing across the northern plains early this afternoon is expected to quickly eject northeast into the Great Lakes tonight. A cold front will extend into the central plains making its way through the area during the overnight hours. A line of showers/storms will develop along the front as it moves southeast. Modest instability will remain in place despite nocturnal cooling with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. Shear will be lacking and decreasing further south and east as the line pushes in. The current thinking is that the line overall will be weakening as it pushes through but a few storms could intensify to severe levels with a damaging wind threat. Localized flooding can't be ruled out but the line should be moving quick enough to limit the flood risk.

Showers and storms exit the area Friday with high pressure building in providing northeast winds and much lower humidity. Dewpoints are expected to fall into the 50s across portions of the region. Zonal flow develops aloft over the weekend with a weak boundary draped across the Midsouth. As this boundary lifts north a weak shortwave will traverse the region aiding in showers and storm development late Saturday into early Sunday. Depending on instability and shear trends, some strong storms can't be ruled out. High PW's will be in place for a flash flooding threat as well. Early next week features drier and cooler temperatures as a result of high pressure to the north. LREF continue to paint 70-90% chances of dewpoints below 60 degrees Monday into Tuesday. A system to the south could offer low end rain chances to southern portions of the area but at this time the forecast is dry into midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR expected this afternoon. CU field with bases up to 5 kft is expected through the afternoon. Southwest winds 11-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through the afternoon will shift to the northwest as the front moves through overnight. A line of convection will accompany the front tonight from northwest to southeast. Restrictions in cig/visb can be expected in and near any thunderstorm activity. Conditions improve after 10-12Z with VFR remaining through the rest of the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-081- 085. MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100. IN...None. KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ007>009- 011-012.