textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and thunderstorms (40-50% chance) remain possible over SEMO, far southwest IL, and southwest KY this afternoon. Smaller chances are forecast tomorrow (20-30%) over SEMO.

- A little better chance for showers and storms (40-60%) is anticipated Monday along with some risk for severe storms, with wind and hail the main threat.

- Drier air arrives Tuesday through much of next week, allowing for seasonable temperatures with little to no rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A very large deep layer ridge over the north-central US and Canada is strengthening surface high pressure over eastern North America this afternoon to the point it continues to push a "back door" cold front through the region. Skies are opening up over SWIN/NW Kentucky with dewpoints falling into the low 60s. Southwest of there, dewpoints remain in the low 70s. In the frontal zone a few showers and storms will be possible through the mid to late afternoon. Drier air moving in from the northeast should limit fog potential overnight. Tomorrow an east to west oriented shortwave trough passes just close enough to our northwestern counties to keep a chance of rain/thunderstorms in over SEMO.

Monday the upper level flow switches around to more northwesterly with weak ripples in the flow. As that occurs the soupier low level airmass sloshes back to the northeast. Mid- level lapse rates steepen modestly and we end up with about 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with sufficient deep layer shear for some severe risk if thunderstorms can get going. GFS seems to want to develop an MCS west of the area and take it to our southwest where the ECMWF is a little more scatter shot. It is not a given convection will be able to fire, but it if does this pattern often produces either some form of southeastward moving MCS or strong/severe individual cells with wind/hail the primary hazard.

Tuesday the low level front gets shoved back to the southwest of the area and the upper level pattern here and west take on elements of both an omega and Rex blocking pattern suggestive of fairly consistent and dry conditions for a few days with temperatures close to seasonable norms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

SHRA/TSRA activity is quickly deminishing this afternoon with a dry forecast for the TAF sites overnight and into Sunday. Can't completely rule out convection in the latter parts of the forecast after 18Z for SEMO but at this point chances are less than 20% with no mention in the TAFs. Winds will generally be light around 5 knots from the northeast through the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.