textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon and into the evening. All severe hazards are possible.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through the weekend. Additional storm total amounts of 0.75-2" is possible with locally higher amounts possible as well. A Flood Watch is in effect through late tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Similar to the last couple of days, an upper level shortwave is set to roll through today and tomorrow where it pinches off from the main flow as it slowly drifts east along the TN/KY border. Overnight convection may linger into this morning before we see a lull in activity. More showers and storms are expected this afternoon into the evening and possibly early overnight. While there is still some model discrepancy on timing and placement, the weak/diffuse sfc boundary to our north looks to drift south into the area by tomorrow evening and could serve as a focus for storm development. Any development will also be dependent on and/or aided by remnant outflow boundaries from prior convection. This is something models tend to really struggle with. With regards to severe potential today, there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over nearly the entire Quad State. All severe hazards would be possible. This threat is supported by 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, approximately 25-30 kts of 0- 6 km bulk shear, and steep low level lapse rates.

Sunday will be similar yet again but weaker this time and less certain. Rain and storms will be more limited and mainly confined to the eastern portions of the CWA. Being north of the aforementioned boundary the threat for severe is considerably less. By the end of Sunday, additional weekend rainfall amounts could total to around 0.75-2" with locally higher amounts possible should storms train over the same areas. The Flood Watch is in effect through late tonight.

Next week a high pressure dome builds over the central and western CONUS leading to drier and warmer conditions. Highs start pushing 90 again by mid week. There may be some off hand chances for precipitation mainly in the afternoons through early week, but overall things should be drier.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Last night's storms are still clearing portions of the area but after there should be a dry period and partial clearing of the cloud deck. Timing and location of storms this afternoon and evening is still questionable and is lower confidence. Some of these storms may be severe, with all hazards possible. Storms that do hit the terminal are likely to be heavy rain producers.

Behind the storms (with the exception of KMVN) lowering of cigs is expected down to MVFR through the overnight into the morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.