textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- An area of light to moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms will move eastward across much of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky this afternoon.

- Variable rain chances return to the forecast late Tuesday night through Saturday night. The greatest chances and heaviest rain are expected Thursday and Friday.

- Total rainfall amounts will generally be 1-2", with the potential for higher amounts in the northwest and lighter amounts in the southeast.

- Summer will arrive this weekend and continue into next week. Triple digit heat indices are expected throughout the Quad State Sunday and next Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A cold front located from the Bootheel region to the Pennyrile will make slow southward progress this afternoon. However, widespread cloud cover associated with the MCS over western Tennessee should limit instability ahead of it. Light to moderate rain will skirt over the southern third of the region this afternoon, but a few brief thunderstorms cannot be ruled out south of the front.

A dirty west northwest flow aloft will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to at least the western half of the Quad State from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This initial system will be lacking in moisture and should not amount to much rainfall.

For Thursday through Saturday, the flow aloft will become zonal and very active. Better low-level moisture return will support more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with some heavier rain potential, especially Thursday into Friday. A ridge of high pressure aloft will eventually build northeast over the Quad State and push the active flow north of the area.

Storm total rainfall through Saturday night ranges from nearly 0.5" in the Ft Campbell area to around 2.5" over much of southern Illinois. Some flooding problems certainly could develop, especially if storms can train along an east-west boundary that could settle over the region. At this time, there is no clear signal for severe weather, but that could change, as individual rounds of convection come into better focus.

Surface dewpoints are expected to climb into the middle 70s Saturday through Monday, as the upper high builds overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s Saturday, lower 90s Sunday, and possibly the mid 90s Monday. Heat indices will reach the 100-105 range Sunday and will test Heat Advisory levels (105) over much of the region next Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MVFR ceilings and rain showers this afternoon at all TAF sites but KEVV and KMVN will gradually improve, leaving all sites VFR by mid to late evening. There is potential for fog tonight into early Tuesday morning, but have left that out of the forecast due to uncertainty.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.