textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms remains in place across the Quad State late tonight (Tuesday night) into Wednesday. All modes of severe storms will be possible; although, coverage may be limited late tonight.

- The probability of seeing highs of 80 degrees or greater have trended downward for today (10-15%). A brief cooldown into the 50s for highs will arrive for Thursday. - Temperatures warm to more seasonal levels (60s and 70s) over the weekend before a stronger push of colder air arrives early next week. There is still an 80-90% chance high temperatures remain in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The main focus for this forecast issuance will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday. The greatest threat will be near an approaching cold front, which will shift southeast across MO tonight, reaching northwestern portions of the Quad State Wednesday morning. The severe weather risk tonight will be associated with any convection that shifts far enough ahead of the cold front toward daybreak, which would largely impact northwestern portions of southeast MO and northwest portions of southern IL. Right now, the coverage appears to be fairly limited late tonight with the main threat from any storms that form being marginally severe hail toward daybreak Wednesday. This appears to be associated with an 850mb ThetaE gradient lifting northward into the area. It is also possible that storms could race far enough ahead of the cold front over MO to bring an early morning wind/hail threat to northwestern portions of southeast MO and northwestern portions of southern IL. HI RES guidance has backed away from that scenario though, keeping that threat farther northwest of the area through much of the night.

Attention then turns toward the timing of the cold front and the associated convection. The cold front is forecast to pass through the area from west to east by or around 15Z (10am) over southeast MO and southern IL and around 19Z (2pm) over west KY and southwest IN. Instability ahead of the front is progged to jump up to around 1000 J/kg with westerly shear values around 30-40kts. The shear vectors orthogonal to the front may lead to an increase damaging wind threat with any bowing segments, while helicity values around 300-400 m2/s2 continue to support a tornado threat. Dewpoint temperatures (around 65 degrees) will be supportive of surface based storms and have been correlated with severe weather in the Quad State. Again, the timing for the greatest severe weather risk looks to be late morning into the early afternoon hours with the greatest threat moving out of the southeast portion of the Quad State by or around 5 pm. The exact evolution of the storms late tonight will have a direct impact on how the storm system evolves late Wednesday morning into the afternoon as convection may linger ahead of the front, helping to limit destabilization.

Heavy rainfall will may be an issue with the recent heavy rains that a good portion of the Quad State experienced over the past week. Rainfall rates around 1 in/hr will be possible in the stronger thunderstorms; however, the line itself looks to be transient enough to limit a widespread flood potential.

After a brief shot of cooler temperatures for Thursday (highs in the 50s) temperatures warm to more seasonable levels Friday through the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s. The next cold front will pass through the area Sunday, bringing the next round of showers and storms. Current thinking is that the better moisture from the Gulf will struggle to lift far enough north (dewpoints in the low 50s) to limit overall severe potential. In fact, the instability associated with that system looks to be fairly marginal, while shear is forecast to be around 25 kts. Again, it is worth keeping an eye on, but overall severe threat for Sunday looks limited at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Low clouds will linger across the TAF sites through late this afternoon with IFR/MVFR ceilings. A cold front will arrive toward the end of this TAF forecast, bringing a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Confidence in coverage and timing was low enough to stick with a PROB30 group. Thunder will be possible and will need to be added when confidence increases in the timing. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds to 20-25kts can be expected through tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.