textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected again on Thursday with record or near-record temperatures that will be 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

- There is a 40-70% chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening northeast of the Mississippi River. A few storms may become severe, especially in the Evansville Tri-State and Wabash River Valley. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and some hail are all possible.

- A Red Flag Warning is now in effect Thursday afternoon for the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. Wind gusts between 30-35 mph are also expected across the entire region.

- Temperatures trend back below normal by Sunday into Morning. There is a 20-30% chance of light rain/snow showers on Saturday, with tranquil conditions expected for early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 528 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Severe weather and elevated fire weather danger remains the main concern on Thursday with unseasonably warm conditions. A broad elongated 500 mb trough over the central Plains will provide forcing for ascent in the afternoon as the front quad of a 150+ kt jet max at 250 mb approaches. At the sfc, a 994 mb low pressure over north central Kansas in the morning will lift into northwest Illinois by the evening with a trailing cold front. SPC has extended the slight risk southwest to the Ohio River in their D2 convective outlook, and has also increased the risk of some hail in addition to damaging winds and isolated spin up tornadoes.

The CAMs are still suggesting the potential for limited storm coverage as the right exit region of the aformentioned jet max may inhibit development across much of the FA with the best 500 mb PVA focused towards the Wabash Valley and Evansville Tri- State region. This is where confidence is the greatest for storm coverage with it being closer to the better forcing and triple point over central Illinois. Outside of this region, convection will be hit or miss with some locations seeing very little if any rainfall. There also remains some uncertainty on the timing as the HRRR begins CI as early as midday while the ARW is more focused on the evening.

Despite questions about storm coverage and timing, the parameters remain quite favorable for a few severe storms if enough moisture is present. The HREF/HRRR supports 500 to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 20 to 30 kts of sfc-1 km shear. Combined with STP values of 1 to 2 and sfc-1km SRH values of 200 m^2/s^2 maxed out over the Wabash Valley, all hazards as previously mentioned will be supported. Due to the freezing levels being low with a WBZ around 750 mb, SPC's increased hail risk makes sense, especially initially when discrete supercells are growing upscale into a broken linear line.

Overall, a few severe storms remain a concern Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, but southwest portions of the FA may see very little rain with the greater risk being along and north of I-64. In additional to the severe risk, elevated fire weather danger remains a concern across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri where a Red Flag Warning is now in effect. A dry line quickly pushes east in the afternoon that will send humidity values plummeting to 20% or lower for a few hours. Used a blend of the HREF and RAP for dewpoints to account for the better mixing. Across the entire region, breezy southwest winds are expected with gusts between 30 to 35 mph.

Behind the cold front Thursday night, more seasonable temperatures return by the weekend, followed by below normal temperatures the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Weather conditions remain tranquil most of the time as a 500 mb trough will be in place across the eastern CONUS. However, a shortwave on Saturday will bring a 20-30% chance of light rain showers possibly ending as a mix of wet snow Saturday evening. No impacts are expected as model guidance has trended drier with the system more suppressed to the south. High pressure then builds in through early next week with no additional rain chances progged.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Low stratus is expected to develop overnight into Thursday morning, with cigs to lower into at least IFR territory and quite possibly a period of LIFR (especially at KPAH/KCGI). While there is high confidence in the lower stratus deck, there is much lower confidence regarding possible fog development (some of which may be dense) early Thursday morning. Tend to think we may retain just enough wind to largely prevent the dense fog. Will monitor trends, but for now kept the BCFG mention of IFR vsbys. Southerly winds increase mid-late morning on Thursday becoming sustained 12-16 kts in the afternoon with gusts of 20-30 kts. A cold front moving in should generate isolated to widely scattered showers and storms with northern terminals most likely to experience these during the afternoon. Cigs will gradually improve into the afternoon, but eastern terminals may retain MVFR cigs through 00z Friday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for MOZ098-106- 107. IN...None. KY...None.