textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-40% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. An isolated gusty strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk over southeast Missouri.

- A 30-40% chance of patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, especially across portions of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

- Temperatures and humidity levels will be seasonable next week with a 20-30% chance of daily isolated showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A trailing cold front associated with sfc low pressure over the Great Lakes region is pushing south across the FA. While most of the CAMs have very little development along the boundary this afternoon, the NSSL/RRFS still support some development that is currently ongoing south of STL. Have increased NBM PoPs to a 20-40% chance across the southern counties where dewpoints will remain higher near 70 degrees. This translates to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with about 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Combined with 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 8.0 to 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates, the main concern will be damaging winds where SPC has a D1 marginal. Overall, expecting coverage to be sparse at best, but the probability is the greatest over southeast Missouri.

For tonight, a sfc ridge of high pressure begins to build south from Manitoba as a broad upper-level trough settles over the Ohio Valley with northwest flow. Clear skies will allow for the boundary layer to decouple, with a 30-40% chance of patchy fog. The greatest coverage is favored south of the Ohio River where the crossover temperature will be higher. Otherwise, the FA will be between a western 597 dm ridge over the southwest CONUS and a trough in the northeast that will send a series of shortwaves downstream through the week. Rain chances are pretty sporadic at a 20-30% chance as the timing is highly variable. Not seeing a strong signal for severe weather, but may need to keep an eye on Wednesday when a warm front lifts north. The heat and humidity will remain at seasonable levels for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cold front is pushing south across the region with northwest winds between 7-11 kts and isolated gusts between 15-20 kts. There is a PROB30 of TSRA at KCGI/KPAH due to the rapid development south of STL, while the chances are too low for TAF mention further east. Mid- level clouds will give way to clear skies and calm winds tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, especially across the southern terminals. Winds after sunrise increase to 5-7 kts out of the north-northwest.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.