textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will push the coldest air of this cold outbreak across the Quad State today. With the exception of the Bootheel region, the chance of low temperatures tonight dropping below 20 degrees is 80-100%. - A warming trend kicks off Tuesday with above normal temperatures Wednesday through Saturday.

- The entire Quad State should receive at least some light rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts will increase to the southeast across the region, with a 20-50% chance of a half inch or more, mainly over west Kentucky.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

The coldest air is beginning to surge through the region early this morning, and the forecast has remained very steady. Tonight and Monday will have the coldest conditions with highs Monday in the 30s throughout the region, and a better than 80% chance of lows dropping into the teens tonight. Wind chills are still expected to stay in the single digits throughout the region, with the far northwest down close to zero by daybreak Monday.

Northwest winds today will likely gust 30-35 mph over most of the region. The 00Z ECENS has a 80-90% chance of 30 mph gusts throughout the Quad State, but virtually no chance of 40 mph gusts.

The 00Z guidance, with the exception of the CMC, is coming into agreement in a rain event mainly from 06Z-18Z Thursday. QPF is still quite variable, with the 00Z operational ECMWF and WPC on the high end of the range. The NBM threw in a slight chance of thunder over the southern two thirds of the region overnight Wednesday night, but elevated instability to support it is difficult to find in the 00Z guidance.

The official forecast now has 1.15" in the far southeast, but even the 00Z ECENS has only a 10% chance of reaching 1". QPF has been badly overdone recently, so expect those amounts to come down some as the event approaches.

Much of the 00Z guidance brings a cold front through the region Saturday night or next Sunday, which will bring an end to a nice stretch of mild weather. It is too early to have a clue whether there will be any significant precipitation accompanying it.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Ceilings near 3kft will stream southeast across KEVV and KOWB for much of the day. Hedged the forecast toward VFR or just above 3kft. Ceilings should climb to around 5kft through the afternoon. Northwest winds will increase to 15-20kts sustained with gusts 25-30kts by 15Z. Gustiness will continue into the evening, but should weaken some with sunset. Ceilings may drop down to near 3kft again overnight at KEVV, KOWB, and KMVN. Once again hedged toward VFR.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.