textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily rain chances will yield 1 to 1.5" total rainfall over the next 7 days, with Tuesday having the highest chance of rain. Localized higher totals with storms could result in minor flood issues.

- Memorial Day weekend temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80 for highs and the lower 60s for lows, while winds remain light.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Light showers are approaching the Quad State from the south and the west at this time. Patchy fog has developed but cloud cover is limiting vsby drops to 1 to 7 mile vsby. Plenty of moisture remains in the area and SBCAPE will be present this afternoon, but shear is about as low as it gets so, while some thunderstorm activity is likely today as a weak shortwave trough and a surface cold front moves through later on, lightning and heavy rain are the only hazards of concern.

High pressure moves through the Midwest late today through tomorrow, which will keep the stalled out boundary to the south with the favorable moisture plume passing through Tennessee on an east-northeastward trajectory. PoPs remain Monday, mainly in Western Kentucky closer to the boundary. A building negatively tilted ridge midweek stalls out a Southern Plains low pressure and causes it and the boundary across TN to lift northward midweek resulting in higher PoPs Tuesday-Wednesday. CAPE values increase but shear still remains very low so no SPC outlooks cover the region. A developing Rex block with high pressure dropping into Ontario will help nudge the boundary back south of the Quad State late week, with PoPs slowly decreasing. Overall QPF through the 7 day forecast period has trended lower with the higher values in the south.

Temperatures only reached the middle to upper 70s Saturday. With showers over much of the region today and a boundary to our south Monday, highs are likely to remain in the 70s through Memorial Day with a few 80s possible. Temperatures trend higher afterwards as the boundary lifts to our north only to lower as the front retreats late week. Lows in the lower 60s rise to the upper 60s midweek before lowering again for the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers are moving through the Quad State region at this time with vsbys primarily MVFR to IFR. Cigs should lower this morning with pockets of MVFR to even LIFR at times. Lightning potential early morning is best in the east, but some midday-afternoon thunderstorms are possible as well. Conditions improve to VFR later in the day. Light winds are projected through the TAF period, with some vsby reductions possible towards the end.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.