textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous high and warm minimum temperature records will be broken through the weekend. The warmest day of this record breaking heatwave may be Friday, when there is a 70-95 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees.

- Persistent cloud cover will linger into Friday morning, with some drizzle or light rain possible (15-30 percent chance) mainly across portions of the Evansville Tri state and west KY. Brief clearing Friday afternoon (mainly west) will likely be replaced by more clouds Friday night into Saturday. - A strong cold front will bring a 80 to 90 percent chance of rain and 15 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon and evening. A few strong storms can't be ruled out.

- A brief blast of cold air will arrive Sunday night into early next week with highs struggling to reach freezing and lows falling into the upper teens to lower 20s. In fact, there is only about a 30-50 percent chance that temperatures warm above freezing on Monday!

UPDATE

Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

The primary weather impacts over the next 48 hours will be drizzle, low clouds, and possibly some fog at times. As a warm front draped across our northeast drifts northward some drizzle or light rain is possible this afternoon and evening, possibly lingering into part of the night. Meanwhile, a disturbance moving across the Great Lakes on Friday may lead to additional light rain chances primarily across our eastern counties. This wave will drive a weak cold front through our region Friday night, resulting in a brief wind shift and a reinforcement of our low stratus deck. We could have some additional fog develop this evening and again overnight into Friday morning, although coverage may not be that widespread. Guidance is hinting at spatial coverage being greater Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through Sunday, with numerous record highs and warm minimums likely to be broken, especially on Friday and Sunday. We may actually see a decent amount of sunshine in our western counties Friday afternoon, which should help boost temperatures into the mid 70s in southeast Missouri. Saturday will be somewhat cooler, but model solutions vary depending on how quickly our winds turn back around to southerly. Northern portions of the area may struggle to reach 60.

Our next chance of widespread rain (80-90 percent chance) arrives Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering overnight. Models continue to hint at it being an anafront, with precipitation largely post frontal. Thus, even if some surface instability is realized, the severe threat may be rather limited given the elevated nature of the convection. Still worth monitoring though as there will be plenty of wind shear to work with, so if we can get some surface based instability to develop along with forcing to gen up convection ahead of the boundary then could still have some strong to severe storms to contend with. CSU-MLP maintains a 5% risk for severe across much of our region, but actually has increased to a 15% area from the I-64 area further east into IN and OH.

Much colder air invades our cwa early next week. High temperatures may not reach above freezing in many areas on Monday with overnight lows falling into the upper teens Monday night. Wind chill values may briefly dip into the single digits across some northern locations. Temperatures moderate back closer to normal (highs in the 40s) by New Years Eve.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

A saturated stable layer inversion and warm/moist southerly flow will keep fog and low stratus impacts ongoing through Friday afternoon. Cigs will mainly vary between IFR and MVFR with additional restrictions from fog mainly at CGI and EVV. The southerly flow overnight and Friday morning will yield to drier westerly winds Friday afternoon, bringing lifting cloud bases and clearing skies to VFR levels by Friday afternoon. Southerly winds around 5-10 kts overnight and Friday morning will become WSW AOA 10 kts during the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.