textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and dry air is on the way for Sunday and Monday. Sunday night lows have a greater than 50% chance of being in the teens with Monday morning wind chills in the single digits.

- A warming trend kicks off Tuesday with above normal temperatures through next Saturday.

- At least light rain is expected throughout the Quad State Wednesday night and Thursday. There is a 40-50% chance of more than a half inch, mainly over west Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

An upper level trof moves overhead tonight with a reinforcing shot of energy tomorrow morning. As the trof axis moves east tomorrow afternoon another reinforcing shot of energy pushes through tomorrow night. Sfc high pressure fills in behind this trof leading to much drier and colder conditions tomorrow and Monday. Lows Sunday night will likely be in the teens (NBM has a greater than 50% chance) and Monday night has a 30-60% chance of lows in the teens. A tight pressure gradient on Sunday will lead to gusty conditions. NBM shows a greater than 40% chance of gusts over 25 mph. The HREF shows a greater than 70% chance of gusts over 25 mph. The EPS however shows the greatest potential with a greater than 70% chance of gusts over 30 mph. Wind chills Sunday morning will be in the teens to around 10F in Mount Vernon, IL. Monday morning will be even colder with wind chills in the single digits across the Quad State.

As sfc high pressure shifts to the south Tuesday, winds turn back to the southwest and bring on a warming trend. Tuesday highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Breezy winds and afternoon dewpoints in the lower 20s will lead to RH values in the 30-35% range Tuesday afternoon, so will need to watch for Red Flag conditions.

Flow aloft relaxes Wednesday and Thursday, becoming more zonal with another approaching shortwave. A weak cold front comes through Wednesday night and PoPs start to ramp up Wednesday evening into Thursday particularly in the east with a 40-60% chance across the Quad State by Thursday morning. Things then taper off to the southeast Thursday evening. There is still some uncertainty around amounts and location, but it looks like the highest amounts are over west Kentucky with NBM showing a 40-50% chance of amount over 0.5". Winds shift back to the south by Friday as high pressure fills in at the sfc bringing highs back up to the mid 50s to near 60. Highs will be warm in the lower 60s on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northwest winds around 4-7 kts this evening will gradually increase overnight, with even some gusts of 15-20 kts possible before 12z. As mixing increases, northwest winds become sustained around 15-17 kts tomorrow with gusts to 25 kts expected. Localized gusts near 30 kts can't be ruled out. Mainly clear skies tonight will give way to some mid cloud tomorrow, especially across the northeast half of the region. Guidance is hinting at a low VFR deck that may flirt with KEVV/KOWB in the morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.