textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs slowly trend warmer, reaching the lower 90s over the weekend.

- Daily chances of showers and storms are forecast this week, primarily during the afternoon hours, with the highest chances across southwestern portions of the forecast area today, shifting to the northeast for Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Broad strong upper ridging across most of the United States is streaming extreme heat across the northern tier of the country. Surface high pressure covers the Ohio River Valley while a weak low pressure system in the Mid-South is resulting in a few showers moving into southern portions of the Quad State from the southeast. A west-east boundary is set up in the Deep South.

The Mid-South disturbance slowly meanders in the ridge, drifting closer and resulting in broader coverage of showers/storms this afternoon, primarily in the southwestern portions of the Quad State. Daily precip chances spread out more Thursday and then shift to favoring the Evansville Tri-State on Friday. Convection will primarily be diurnally driven, with plenty of CAPE but trivial shear. The spotty nature of showers will limit training potential but high PWs and plenty of surface moisture (dew points around 75 degrees) will result in brief very heavy rainfall rates.

Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Friday night may interact with the drifting disturbance and increase coverage before drifting eastward out of the area. Warm advection over the weekend as high pressure sets up in the Deep South, along with reduced cloud coverage with lower PoPs, will lift highs over the weekend to the lower 90s with heat index values in the lower 100s. Troughing over the Great Lakes early next week may bring a cold front into the Quad State but its influence could be limited depending on how far east the western/Plains ridge spreads.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Slight vsby drops at a few sites will clear up within the first hour of this TAF period. SCT MVFR clouds are possible this morning, rising to low end VFR midday. Winds will generally be out of the ENE to ESE. Afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the southwestern half of the Quad State. Winds become calm during the evening and models suggest vsby reductions are likely.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.