textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Variable rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon into the weekend.

- Could see additional rainfall of 1-2" Wednesday through Saturday with locally higher amounts around 3" in far western SEMO.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The sfc low is continuing to track through the Ohio Valley overnight and into this morning. Gradually a cold front gets pulled through the area with cooler weather expected for today. Convection lingers through the day mainly along the south and southeast portions of the CWA. Cooler and drier air is expected behind the front for Tuesday with highs in the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A warming trend starts on Wednesday and brings back 90s by Sunday. A series of shortwaves aloft bring back rain chances Wednesday through Saturday. PWATs pick up briefly on Wednesday with the return of southerly flow to around 1.5-1.75", then again on Friday and Saturday to around 1.75-2.00". Overall Wednesday through Saturday total rainfall could be around 1-2" with higher amounts around 3" over far western SEMO. Wednesday afternoon and evening could maybe see some stronger storms over western portions of the CWA. Looks like there could be around 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, 20-30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and modest midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 degC/km. There is still a lot that can and will change between now and then though. So just something to keep an eye on for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Shower and storm chances will continue between 06-09z, decreasing in coverage from northwest to southeast by 09z as a cold front moves towards the area from the northwest. As the storms pass through, MVFR vis/cigs may result. Cigs should largely remain between 1500- 2500 ft as the storms pass, with vis between 3-5 SM. There may be showers/storms that redevelop between 12-16z along the cold front, overspreading the area from west to east, but activity should largely move out of the area by 18z. Confidence is lower on the Monday morning storm activity and coverage, prompting PROB30 groups at this time. Although, 12z and beyond, we will see widespread low stratus develop along the passing cold front. Cigs are forecast to be between 1000-2000 ft through much of Monday morning, with gradual improvements to VFR between 18-21z Monday.

A cold front will move through the area Monday morning, approaching the northwest by 12z. Ahead of the cold front, winds will largely remain out of the south-southwest around 10-15 KTs. As storms pass through the area tonight and in the early AM, variable winds with gusts upwards to 40 KTs will be possible. The cold front is progged to pass through the area between 12-16z, with northwest winds behind it between 5-10 KTs.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-080>083. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081- 082-085>088. KY...None.