textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this evening. Main threat is damaging winds. Low to medium confidence on location and timing.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms tomorrow afternoon. Main threat is damaging winds. Low confidence on location and timing.

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory are in effect through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Prominent ridging continues out west with the ridge axis over the Rockies. That places us in northwest flow aloft with a couple of ridge rider waves influencing our weather today and tomorrow. There is low to medium confidence on the potential for convection this afternoon through the early overnight. SPC does, however, have us in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather should this complex form, with damaging winds being the main threat. Models are juggling this evening's convection with most bringing an MCV through eastern portions of the CWA, while a few (such as the 13Z HRRR) miss us just east. Best timing looks to be around 5PM - 10PM, though some convection may pop up as early as 19Z and may linger as late as 11- 12Z tomorrow. Another wave tomorrow may generate convection that models have mostly missing us to the east. SPC has us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the eastern half of the CWA, main threat is damaging winds again.

With regards to the heat...due to the lack of convection this morning and dewpoints in the 80s, have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning east by a row of counties and run it through Tuesday. Have also expanded the Heat Advisory to the remainder of the CWA for Tuesday. Both regions now run from today through Tuesday. There is a lot of boundary layer moisture and subsequent high dewpoints through Tuesday along with highs in the mid to upper 90s generally. Some of this may be mitigated by convection at times. Some relief comes on Wednesday onward with highs in the 80s, feeling more seasonable.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Cigs are beginning to lift over EVV and OWB but should only lift to MVFR this afternoon. Elsewhere a scattered cu deck is expected to form around 5k ft. This evening convection is expected to form upstream and dive south and southeast into the early overnight. Convection may affect the terminals at MVN, EVV, and OWB. Skies will start clearing out to the west overnight and could result in some fog formation again in the morning, but too low confidence to include right now.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-076- 080>082-084>086-088>094. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ077-078-083-087. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>012. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ013>022.