textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round or two of showers and storms is likely today into tonight. Severe storms and flash flooding are both potential concerns with this system. All hazards are possible but damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern. There is roughly a 20-30% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 2" across the west half of the region.

- Early next week is expected to be cooler and less humid. There is a very high chance (greater than 90%) at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday! This appears short- lived though as higher humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the week.

- An unsettled weather pattern may unfold from mid week into next weekend with near daily chances for showers and storms potentially. There is roughly a 40-60% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 3" over the next 10 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Several MCVs noted on satellite are expected to trek through the Quad State this afternoon through tonight. The first one is passing through the area currently, helping to keep temperatures lower, but also touching off stronger storms over SEMO along as SBCAPE gradient. The next is expected to approach by early evening with the main frontal boundary approaching, then passing through the area around/after midnight tonight. CAMs are very much struggling with overall evolution as each MCV has an impact on the next. If that atmosphere is worked over, then it makes it more challenging for the next to thrive/survive as it passes in the wake of each MCV.

Providing enough instability remains in place, severe storms will be possible along with very heavy rainfall. Wind shear values are progged to be around 25-35kts, coupled with increased instability will be plenty to give a continued severe weather threat. Again, this does depend on how worked over the atmosphere is with each MCV passing through the area. Dewpoints are in the 70s, which is providing plenty of moisture for the storms to work with across the Quad State. This will allow the storms to be efficient rainfall producers and may lead to at least localized flooding potential, especially where/if storms train across the same areas. Again, there's roughly a 20-30% chance of western portions of the county warning area seeing 3" inches of rain or greater.

After the front passes later tonight, conditions improve and drier air arrives to start the week. That doesn't last long as more humid/unsettled weather will arrive for the last half of the work week. Another warm front, followed quickly by a cold front will move into the area Wednesday into Thursday. Shear values are progged to be around 30-40kts with instability values pushing around 1500-2000 J/kg. That combination will give the threat of seeing strong to severe storms for Wednesday into Thursday along with heavy rainfall potential. Thunderstorms do appear likely (50-70% chance), so will have to keep a close eye on those days. The SPC does have the area highlighted for a Slight Risk of severe storms Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After an initial lull in shower and thunderstorm activity, another round of decaying showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region around 10-16z ahead of a cold front (best chances will be in SEMO and WKY), followed by gradual drying in the afternoon hours. A few showers may develop along the leading edge of the front as well. VFR cigs will lower and will become MVFR with the arrival of more precipitation, followed by improvement in the afternoon. Light S to SW winds overnight around 4-8 kts will become W to NW and increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts behind the frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, the NW winds will relax to around 5-10 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.