textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the work week along with above normal temperatures in the 80s.

- Confidence is increasing that the remnants of a tropical system will impact our region over the weekend. Peak timing for heavy rains has trended slightly faster, primarily focused in the Saturday through Sunday morning time period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Warm/dry relatively pleasant conditions look to continue through Friday. On Saturday a digging shortwave trough will meet up with the remnants of tropical cyclone Isaias. The outflow from Isaias appears to influence the shape of the trough and associated jet max as it squeezes into the south and becomes somewhat negatively tilted. By Saturday morning the center of the cyclone is projected to be over AL/MS with a sharp trough just to our southwest and an 80-100 kt jet maxima evacuating mass from the storm and its vicinity. This should lead to a tremendous amount of large scale ascent with the injection of tropical moisture. The track of the system has sped up since yesterday with the probability of rainfall increasing quite a bit on Saturday compared to 24 hours ago with the system appearing more likely to be clearing to the east by Sunday afternoon/evening.

The model consensus is pretty good on a hurricane coming onshore in line with the NHC track Saturday morning. The storm moves quickly into the mid-south and undergoes extratropical transition owing to the abundant large scale ascent. The deterministic GFS/ECMWF wind fields, particularly at 850/925 mb remain quite strong although a relatively stable boundary layer may limit mixing even during the afternoon due to cloud cover. There does appear to be at least some potential for advisory level gusts (40 mph or higher) - with the probability for that probably in the 20-30% range. The stronger lower level wind field though does drive a lot of warm air advection and isentropic lift, and if they are as strong as the 12z ECMWF indicates rainfall would likely be heavier than current QPF indicates. I'm a little concerned the GFS spins the strength of the system down too fast and the ECMWF may be on the right track. This would lead to a little more of a heavy rain/flooding threat. The severe risk/tornado risk appears muted due to limited boundary layer instability but the shear appears strong enough for it to at least potentially be a concern. The risk probabilities are higher to the south and southeast of the area but likely not quite zero, especially over western Kentucky.

A backdoor cold front tries to work through on Tuesday before southerly return flow turns back up and keeps things fairly warm, slightly above normal, through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the early evening. Patchy ground fog remains possible overnight particularly at CGI where it may be a little more widespread and longer lasting.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.