textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures expected this week as welcome relief from the hot weather.

- Another cold front's approach and passage brings our next storm chances, including strong to severe storm chances, Wednesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

More seasonable temperatures are here this week with relief from the hot weather. Sfc high pressure moves overhead by Tuesday morning resulting in a pleasant day with mid 60s dewpoints and clear skies. The high then shifts east Tuesday night and brings back warm, moist return flow.

A shortwave aloft begins to form over the northern Plains on Wednesday and rolls through the region Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Ahead of this shortwave is a quick perturbation in the flow that pushes a cold front through the area on Wednesday. PoPs are reintroduced into the forecast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning and last through Thursday afternoon (with a brief break Wednesday afternoon). Several factors are coming together to support an MCS threat Wednesday evening maybe into the overnight. Placement of the leading perturbation aloft will be key. Models support a low level jet with westerly shear around 35-40 kts (possibly up to 50 kts per the GFS), decent mid-level lapse rates around 6 degC/km, and inverted V soundings. Also, the CSU MLP has a 15% wind threat area over SEMO.

Right now there is decent consistency in the deterministic models and the ensembles with the GFS being the worst case scenario. The main threat would be damaging wind, but can't rule out some hail or even a quick QLCS tornado or two (if things line up just right). Heavy rain is also possible with 2.2" PWATs. Behind this cold front, cooler and drier air settles in with dewpoints back down in the mid 60s and seasonable highs to end the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A weak area of high pressure will build into the region tonight allowing for the boundary layer to decouple after sunset with calm winds. There is a 30-50% chance for patchy fog overnight; with the highest LAMP probabilities at KCGI/KMVN where a brief period of LIFR conditions will be possible. While a thin layer of cirrus clouds are a bit more present on satellite imagery than modeled, they likely will not be enough to inhibit the potential. Calm winds tonight turn variable around 4 kts on Tuesday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.