textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-60%) are forecast through next weekend. While a stronger storm is possible through Wednesday, severe chances are quite low (less than 5%). Somewhat greater severe probabilities (5-15%) may creep into portions of our area by Thursday night and particularly Friday and Saturday.

- High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s through Wednesday, which is at or slightly below normal. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) Thursday and possibly Friday will likely yield heat index values above 100. Temperatures will cool down again for the weekend, into the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mid-upper level troughiness will remain in place through Wednesday with a weak upper low spinning across the lower Ohio and TN Valleys. This will help keep our scattered convective chances going each day, peaking during the afternoon and early evening. Flow aloft is very weak, less than 15 kts, so likely will struggle to get much in the way of organized convection. Also, there will be a good amount of cloud cover associated with the trough, so instability will likely struggle to exceed 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. However, can't rule out a few storms that pulse up briefly to produce localized damaging winds (typical summer storms). There will also be high precipitable water values (1.8 to 2") the next two days. This along with the slow moving nature of the storms will result in some very heavy downpours that could produce localized flooding concerns. The upper low finally pushes east by Thursday as shortwave energy moves east into the Midwest. Ahead of it, southwest flow will increase boosting temperatures along with a slight uptick in humidity levels. As temperatures approach 90/low 90s, heat index readings will likely exceed 100 again Thursday afternoon and possibly Friday as well.

The flow aloft will increase a bit later in the week as shortwaves push across the Midwest. This should induce 0-6km shear of at least 20 kts, and possibly pushing 30 kts, by Thursday night into Friday and quite possibly continuing into Saturday (GFS is most aggressive with that). At the same time, warmer temperatures and high humidity (dew points in the mid 70s) will yield higher instability as MLCAPE may push to at least 3000 j/kg again. The end result may be a little better threat for organized severe storms. ML probabilities continue to paint higher severe probs of 5-15% late week, with the first window possibly as early as Thursday night in our north and then across more of the area Friday and Saturday.

While there has been fairly good agreement keeping Saturday unsettled, there is a bit less confidence by Sunday as the upper disturbances may push east and shove the boundary to our south as strong upper ridging begins to build across the Plains. We may have some lingering convection to contend with, but it's possible we our primarily dry by then. The upper ridge likely builds east into the Mississippi Valley early to mid next week, which should allow several dry days for us. After a cooler weekend, temperatures likely return to 90 or above early to mid next week as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Expecting quiet weather overnight. Fog is possible at all terminals after 8-9Z. After improvements, a round of MVFR cigs will be possible at eastern terminals around mid morning. The afternoon hours are expecting to see VFR conditions. Would expect to see some isolated convection tomorrow afternoon although confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs for now.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.