textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will rise 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. More seasonable conditions quickly make a return on Friday with temperatures trending slightly below normal next weekend.

- Rain showers begin to build in from the west on Thursday night, peaking at a 50-80% chance across the entire region Friday into Friday night when a rumble of thunder will be possible.

- Daily rain chances linger through the weekend with a 20-50% chance of total rainfall exceeding 1 inch by Sunday evening. No flooding problems are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The NBM has been struggling to keep up with the strong mixing across the Quad State the last few days. Temperatures have been overachieving and dewpoints have been lower than forecast, resulting in relative humidity in the 20-30% range. With the return of light southeast winds today, confidence in increasing temperatures is not great enough to alter the NBM forecast, but we did use ConsShort in place of the NBM to lower dewpoints a few degrees through the day. Relative humidity should drop at least to the 25-30% range today, and they could go even lower if temperatures exceed the NBM forecast again. Similar trends are possible Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.

Guidance continues to delay the arrival of the cold front and onset of precipitation, such that Thursday is now dry, even in the NBM. That will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s throughout the region on Thursday. Outside of forested areas, the NBM has a 70-100% chance of reaching 90 or above Thursday and a 30-90% chance Wednesday. The impact of humidity will be negligible. Even with south winds developing Wednesday and becoming gusty on Thursday, dewpoints will be stuck in the 50s Wednesday and lower 60s Thursday.

Guidance is focusing in on the Friday through Saturday window for our next rain event. The cold front is now expected to push through the region on Friday, which could allow temperatures approach 90 once more over the southern Pennyrile of Kentucky. Showers should develop along and behind the front through the day and continue across the region Friday night.

A resurgence of showers/rain will spread east across the region Saturday, as the remnants of the southern stream system push eastward across the Quad State. Instability will be very limited, mostly well below 500 J/kg, so thunderstorms are not likely. That said, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially over the southern half of the Quad State Saturday.

Rainfall amounts in this forecast have come down into the 1-2" range, which is not nearly as extreme as the last few days. The NBM forecast still has PoPs running through Sunday and even into Monday, so with the expected shorter duration and little to no thunder, most places are more likely to see a half inch, with a lucky few getting closer to one inch. The 00Z GEFS probability of a total of 1" or more is only 20-50%.

Northern stream energy will likely push the precipitation out of the Quad State Saturday night, and usher in another shot of cooler air. The NBM has highs in the lower half of the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday and Monday. It's almost as if fall were here.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 430 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

FEW-SCT high level bases are possible, otherwise it will be a cloud-free, high pressure-dominated forecast with winds light or calm overnight. There was patchy fog at KMVN last night, and that might be possible again tonight, though the signal is weak enough to preclude from mention at this writing. The eastward shifting surface high will allow return flow southerlies to develop tmrw, translating in their genesis from west-to-east across the terminals over the course of the day.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.