textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected most of the week, especially by Tuesday. Above 60F probs by Tuesday is now >80%.

- Rain and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday. There is at least some severe weather potential on Friday. Rain chances 75-90%. Thunder chances are about 30-40%.

- Widespread rainfall is expected Thursday into Friday with a 70-80% chance of rain peaking Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Some severe weather potential may emerge Thursday night into Friday, but the predictability remains low. Total rainfall amounts through Friday have trended wetter between 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with a 45-65% chance of exceeding 1 inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Right now a broad ridge covers most of the south central US with troughing (the next big thing for us) working onto the Pacific coast. A southwesterly oriented jet max (135kts) stretches ahead of the trough from off the California coast into the western Great lakes. The exit region of this trough gives us a little bit of lee cyclogenesis over the plains that serves to enhance our flow out of the south today warming temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60. Temperatures then warm steadily into the middle of the week.

The primary focus in the forecast period remains the storm system Thursday into Friday. Trends are slower with this system but we are seeing a notable increase in model consensus. A warm front moves through the region Thursday - giving us shower and thunderstorm chances - and then a cold front associated with about a 1000mb sfc low to the northwest sweeps through Friday night. Both deterministic GFS and ECMWF models show a sharp EML working in over the 62-63 degree dewpoint sfc air and seem to show a pseudo dry line working into the western part of the CWA ahead of the actual cold front. We then get a right front quadrant (subsidence) of a jet max strengthening from 130 to 145 kt as it shifts northeastward and transitions us to right rear quadrant (lift). 850mb flow is 35-45 kts from the southwest with 500mb flow increasing from 75 to about 85 kts during the day. Shear is very strong but somewhat unidirectional, but there are runs that give us a little bit of curvature to the hodograph with 0-1km SRH 200-300 m2/s2.

Whats all that mean? With the EML and the subsidence, capping will be a factor, and the global models showing the picture at this range usually underplay that. They also struggle to resolve the true steepness of the mid-level lapse rates associated with such an EML. The models have so far this winter been pretty consistently underplaying mid-level lapse rates once the large scale ascent gets going anyway. Moisture return looks good with 62-63 dewpoints in the deterministic guidance, although some ensemble members look like they generate more convection to our south Friday morning cutting off return flow. Sometimes these EML intrusions mix down in deep mixing and reduce surface convergence and reduce surface-based instability ahead of the trough instead of acting like a dryline as well. That being said an EML shooting over rich low level moisture with broad large scale ascent and strong shear is also a recipe for more volatile severe weather episodes. Things look a little more concerning this morning given the model agreement on a deeper slower moving trough for at least some severe weather risk Friday but there are pretty clear failure modes as well with the exact timing. Things that would make the environment more favorable for severe though often struggle to be resolved at this range so we will need to stay alert. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible although amounts at this point look too low for flooding concerns.

A brief shot of cold air then moves in, maybe even a little colder than currently modeled given what the airmass looks like in Alaska and the northwest Territories of Canada right now.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 445 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Light to moderate south to southwest winds are forecast to increase slightly through the day. Stronger winds are forecast to develop just off the surface early Tuesday morning potentially leading to low-level wind shear conditions.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.