textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will linger across the Quad State area through this evening with the greatest chances (50-70%) this morning. The heaviest totals are expected across west KY.

- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday, then linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 1 to 2 inch range. Roughly a 60-80% chance of seeing 1 inch or more of rain for that time range.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. There is a 50-70% chance of max wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light rain will continue steadily this morning before becoming more scattered this afternoon. Chances will be around 50-70% for the morning before dropping to around 20-30% this afternoon and tonight. An additional quarter inch or so of rainfall will be possible through roughly noon today and mainly across SEMO into west KY.

The trend continues to shift toward a more northern solution with an approaching strong upper-level low and surface low Monday night through Wednesday. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a better chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 60-80% chance of the Quad State seeing an inch or more of rain Monday night through Wednesday evening. PWAT values are forecast to be around 200-300% of normal for this time of year, so very heavy downpours are expected Tuesday afternoon. Fortunately, the system will move along quickly enough to limit the overall threat for flooding. Gusty winds will likely develop from the south as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. In fact, there is around a 50-70% chance that max wind gusts reach or exceed 30 mph across the area on Tuesday. Overall instability looks to be fairly meager with the system with widespread rainfall and cloud cover, so trending a bit lower for severe weather probabilities across our area. Shear is progged to be around 40kts or better, so any increase in instability with dewpoints pushing into the 60s could result in at least some severe weather potential Tuesday afternoon. It's worth keeping an eye on for now.

Conditions dry out for the end of next week with seasonable temperatures expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually spread across the western terminals Sunday morning, continuing across the rest of the region into the afternoon. Intervals of showers will also be possible, with the greatest probabilities peaking in the morning at KPAH/KCGI where the steadiest precipitation will fall.

While drier conditions filter in during the afternoon hours, low stratus will prevail into Sunday evening with pockets of drizzle and a 20% chance of isolated light rain showers. Guidance is hinting at a 30-40% chance of LIFR cigs at KCGI/KPAH and perhaps KMVN along with the same probability for IFR cigs at KEVV/KOWB.

Winds will be primarily southeast between 6-10 kts during the day Sunday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.