textproduct: Paducah

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Several MCVs noted on satellite are expected to trek through the Quad State this afternoon through tonight. The first one is passing through the area currently, helping to keep temperatures lower, but also touching off stronger storms over SEMO along as SBCAPE gradient. The next is expected to approach by early evening with the main frontal boundary approaching, then passing through the area around/after midnight tonight. CAMs are very much struggling with overall evolution as each MCV has an impact on the next. If that atmosphere is worked over, then it makes it more challenging for the next to thrive/survive as it passes in the wake of each MCV.

Providing enough instability remains in place, severe storms will be possible along with very heavy rainfall. Wind shear values are progged to be around 25-35kts, coupled with increased instability will be plenty to give a continued severe weather threat. Again, this does depend on how worked over the atmosphere is with each MCV passing through the area. Dewpoints are in the 70s, which is providing plenty of moisture for the storms to work with across the Quad State. This will allow the storms to be efficient rainfall producers and may lead to at least localized flooding potential, especially where/if storms train across the same areas. Again, there's roughly a 20-30% chance of western portions of the county warning area seeing 3" inches of rain or greater.

After the front passes later tonight, conditions improve and drier air arrives to start the week. That doesn't last long as more humid/unsettled weather will arrive for the last half of the work week. Another warm front, followed quickly by a cold front will move into the area Wednesday into Thursday. Shear values are progged to be around 30-40kts with instability values pushing around 1500-2000 J/kg. That combination will give the threat of seeing strong to severe storms for Wednesday into Thursday along with heavy rainfall potential. Thunderstorms do appear likely (50-70% chance), so will have to keep a close eye on those days. The SPC does have the area highlighted for a Slight Risk of severe storms Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The main concerns this TAF issuance will be the potential for several rounds of convection this afternoon through tonight. MVFR ceilings/visibilities are lower with each round as it passes through the TAF sites along with very heavy downpours and gusty/erratic winds. Highlighted the greatest thunderstorm potential this afternoon at CGI/PAH in the TAF and went with PROB30s at the remaining TAF sites. Another round may move through the TAF sites closer to midnight into the early overnight hours. With the lower confidence in timing and coverage kept the PROB30 group for that time period. Conditions will improve Sunday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.