textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures and humidity levels will start feeling more like summer-time through early next week. Highs will average close to 10 degrees above normal with lots of mid to upper 80s pushing into the lower 90s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight into Saturday with highest chances (30-60%) across the northern half of the area. There is about a 5-10% chance of a severe thunderstorm or two mainly over SE Illinois, southwest Indiana and Northwest Kentucky.

- More widespread chances (60-80%) for showers and storms are slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. Modest risks for some severe thunderstorms or locally heavy rain may emerge in this period, most likely Tuesday afternoon but these risks do not appear to be increasing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Weak warm advection and perhaps just a touch of jet-level ascent are fueling weak showers that seem to mostly not quite be reaching the ground early this morning. A small trough over Oklahoma is moving this way projected to pass close to the region by mid-morning. Observed and forecast soundings show enough elevated instability that any little oomph could generate showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm so we maintain relatively low pops across the area most of the day along with fairly persistent mid-level cloud cover. Highest pops are over SWIN and northwest Kentucky where you have the best chance for a combo of large-scale ascent (mid level shortwave and warm frontogenetic forcing) and afternoon heating to build up a few storms. If we warm up as much as forecast, MLCAPEs will hit 2000-2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear about 30-35 kts so a little stronger/more organized storm would be at least possible. I think the better bet is it doesn't warm up quite that much and we fight residual 800mb warm air which would limit the apparent threat for any severe to something like 5-10% over SWIN/NW Kentucky with wind probably the main threat in surface based convection with a smaller risk of large hail in elevated convection (rooted above the capping inversion).

The warm front clears the area by Sunday morning leading to hot, humid and dry conditions for Sunday.

Broad troughing over the central US sends an initial wave that still brushes to our northwest Monday afternoon and evening. Rich low level moisture will be in place by Monday afternoon although lower level lapse rates are poor with warmer air around 850mb. Would need pretty deep low-level forcing to initiate convection and it is possible but the 30-50% chances painted for precip/storms mainly over the western half of the CWA appear reasonable for the late afternoon and evening. With the parent system over the Plains rotating around we end up in the right rear quadrant of an upper jet Tuesday evening. With several days of deep southwesterly moisture return of western Gulf air PWAT values rise to around 1.7 or 1.8 inches. Deep layer shear remains pretty poor until a cold front clears so despite 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE the severe weather risk still doesn't appear exceptional. Steady lift, instability, and moisture return ahead of a slow moving front does however look supportive still for locally heavy rain although overall QPFs are still not super-impressive. We may end up finding a nice spot in between beneficial levels of rain without getting into a flood scenario and without a significant severe weather threat, which would be quite unseasonable!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Light showers are developing across parts of the area this morning. Thunderstorms are building a little northeast of MVN and EVV, close enough to remain aware but it does seem this early morning round probably stays to the northeast. The atmosphere is moderately unstable already and it won't take much to set off showers or thunderstorms. Have Prob30s for when they are most likely but be alert for amendments today as convective trends develop. The best probability for precip/storms intense enough to impact operations/flight rules would be MVN/EVV/OWB but can't be ruled out anywhere in the four state region today.

By late afternoon or early evening most of the mess should clear out leaving VFR conditions with moderate southwesterly winds in its wake.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.