textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances are in the forecast today and on Tuesday with Tuesday offering the best chances. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Localized flash flooding will also be a concern Tuesday afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening for most of the region. Daily high temperatures trend more into the lower 90s through the early portions of the week with heat index values between 100-105 degrees. The hottest day will be Tuesday with heat index readings as high as 110 degrees.

- The latter half of next week may bring additional risks for unhealthy air due to the ongoing Ontario wildfire smoke.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The area remains in a northwest flow aloft today with a weak boundary near the area. This boundary will begin to lift north today and may be a focus for widely scattered rain chances this afternoon. Better rain chances, at least for the eastern half of the area, arrive on Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the Quad State region and will be the focus for showers and storms. A very moist airmass ahead of the front will interact with increasing shear from a jet to the north for the possibility for strong to severe storms. The greater threat remains to our east but there is enough overlap of shear/instability for damaging winds and hail in any stronger storms. Timing continues to favor the afternoon hours but it is noted that early look at the CAMs do suggest activity moving into the region as early as Tuesday morning.

Behind the front, high pressure will offer much drier and cooler conditions Wednesday into Thursday. Another upper disturbance moving through the region may offer more rain chances late Friday into Friday night. Most of the weekend looks dry although a few isolated showers/storms are possible on the eastern periphery of a ridge located across the plains. Hot and humid conditions will continue early this week. Tuesday will be the warmest day when highs push well into the 90s. These temperatures along with dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat index readings approaching or possibly exceeding 110 degrees. A heat advisory remains in effect for portions of the area through Tuesday evening. Depending on coverage/timing of convection, upgraded headlines are possible on Tuesday. Temperatures cool into the 80s Wednesday and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

MVFR fog will be common overnight, with IFR or lower conditions possible at all sites. Coverage of any convection will be too low to mention in the forecasts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080>082- 084>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>017-021-022.