textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and storms are forecast through next weekend, with the highest chances (40-70%) today and again Thursday night through Friday night.

- High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s, which is at or slightly below normal, through next weekend. The lone exception will be Thursday when temperatures will climb into the lower 90s and heat index readings climb into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

An MCV will move slowly east northeast across the northern half of the Quad State this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and to the south of the MCV through the afternoon. MLCAPE values have climbed over 2000J/kg over southern portions of west Kentucky, and that should continue to build northward ahead of the MCV through the afternoon. DCAPE values are approaching 1000J/kg over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana, which would definitely support some healthy downdrafts, but not to the degree we have seen the last few days, especially with much less overall instability. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with damaging winds the main threat. They will be most likely over west Kentucky where the better instability and DCAPE is located. The showers and storms may linger into the evening over southern portions of west Kentucky.

Looking into next week, the Quad State will have a persistent mid/upper-level trough overhead, which will lead to continued unsettled weather, with daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

A series of stronger disturbances will move through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. This will induce healthy south or southwest winds Thursday which will bring dewpoints back into the middle 70s and send heat indices back into the triple digits. It will also feed more widespread convection late Thursday through Friday night. The greatest coverage should be over the northeast half of the region. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with the increased instability and some actual flow aloft.

Next weekend a weak upper trough will linger over or just southeast of the Quad State which will lead to smaller daily chances of convection, mainly over the southeast. The heat and humidity will drop back down to normal levels, as well.

Looking into the following week, there may be a couple of pure dry days throughout the Quad State, however, guidance is not in good agreement in how we will get there. The latest ECMWF has a strong upper ridge building east over the region, which would mean a return to hotter conditions, and the latest GFS has strong northwest flow aloft all the way out of Canada, which would mean more pleasant, dry weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

An MCV will force at least scattered SHRA/TSRA as it moves east northeast across all sites this afternoon. These storms should not be as windy as the last few days. Assuming most of the area gets wet this afternoon, fog is a reasonable expectation tonight and it could be dense in some locations. With light north winds in the morning, MVFR ceilings will try to spread south over the region.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.