textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday for a prolonged dangerous heatwave with daily heat index values ranging from 103-110 degrees. There is a 30-70% chance of needing to extend advisory level heat headlines into Sunday over southeast Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and west Kentucky.

- Multiple consecutive days of near record high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees and several record warm overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected to continue through at least Saturday. These high and low temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal, and will elevate heat impacts to an extreme level even more through the start of the holiday weekend. - Rain chances will not provide relief until late Saturday at the earliest, with only a 10-25% chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch where isolated showers and thunderstorms occur primarily Saturday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A few showers have developed in Northwest Tennessee early this afternoon. As a result, low end PoPs have been introduced in far Southeast Missouri and far West Kentucky for this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Extreme heat continues to be the story for early September as a strong upper ridge remains entrenched over the Quad State region. Highs in the upper 90s to near 100 and heat indices around 103-110 continue each day today through Saturday. Lows in the mid-70s tonight and Friday night provide limited relief and help surge HeatRisk to level 3 (major) to 4 (extreme) over the Quad State region today through Saturday.

With quick warming this morning, temperatures were lifted slightly over much of the area (mainly SEMO), to track closer to yesterday's highs. Dew points in the lower 70s have mixed down to the upper 60s in some spots, but a little moisture from Eduardo's remnants will help keep dew points from lowering much. As we continue through Saturday a few records (highs or warm lows) may be set. This extended period of hot and dry conditions will continue to dry out vegetation and increase potential for wildfire starts, though light winds will help mitigate spread.

No changes were made to the Extreme Heat Warning during this forecast package. There's very limited model support for a few showers Friday afternoon but not enough to keep PoPs out of silent territory for now. A slight chance to chance of precip Saturday afternoon in the northeast is accompanied by a weak disturbance rounding the ridge and moving southeastward through the Ohio River Valley. Rainfall amounts should be minimal unless a thunderstorm can get going. With lower dew points and cooler temperatures Sunday, we will hold off on determining heat product needs for Sunday. Best potential for heat advisory conditions Sunday will be in the southwest and the lowest chances are in the northeast. Monday looks to be the coolest and driest day this week with dewpoints into the lower 60s and temperatures only peaking in the lower half of the 90s...which is still above normal but we'll take what we can get.

Unfortunately, the ridge builds back in and centers over the Quad State midweek next week, with southerly winds bringing in heat and humidity. Forecast heat indices remain below advisory criteria for the middle of next week, some of this due to model uncertainty on ridge placement, but HeatRisk expands level 3 conditions over much of the Quad State midweek. Advisory or not, the above normal conditions are not going away anytime soon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Afternoon mid-level clouds should develop, with southwesterly winds of 4-8kts today, followed by clearing skies and calming winds overnight. Tomorrow will see lighter winds and some midday to afternoon mid-level cloud development.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.