textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder again today with highs mainly in the 30s, with the Evansville Tri-State struggling to reach freezing.

- Dry through the weekend and then rain chances come back Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast is messy after Wednesday due to model discrepancy.

- Tuesday night rainfall amounts look to be measurable (at least 0.01") but less than a quarter of an inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Expect colder temperatures today behind yesterday's cold front with highs mainly in the 30s with the Evansville Tri-State struggling to reach freezing (chances for seeing 32+ is less than 40%). As a sfc high moves from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley our winds will switch to the northeast and east today and then to the south and southeast by Sunday.

The flow aloft begins to flatten more on Sunday with the passage of a brief shortwave ridge which helps to bring back warmer temperatures. Sunday's highs will be closer to normal, but hitting 50 looks less likely in the deterministic NBM (possibly due to snowpack estimates) but this is coming in below the 50th percentile. The ensemble still shows at least a 50% chance of reaching 50 degrees for most of SEMO and the KY Purchase region on Sunday. Monday winds turn to the southwest and continue the warming trend with 50s a near guarantee for all but the Evansville Tri-State which has a 30-50% chance of seeing 50. The warm up continues through Tuesday (the warmest day) with 60s nearly certain across the area. Monday night and Tuesday night will see lows above freezing across the board.

A shortwave trof rolls along the Gulf Coast Tuesday night through Wednesday and brings a cold front and rain to the area. PoPs are in the 50-65% range Tuesday night and taper off to the southeast by Wednesday afternoon. There is a 45-65% chance of measurable rainfall (at least 0.01") Tuesday night with a less than 25% chance of seeing 0.25" per the NBM ensemble. So what is currently in the deterministic forecast (0.15" to 0.40") may very likely be too high. This could be due to a timing discrepancy between the EC/EPS and the GFS/GEFS. The EC/EPS is slower and brings precip closer to Wednesday morning versus the GFS/GEFS which is faster with precip Tuesday evening and overnight. So it's possible that the two are being added together in the deterministic QPF forecast.

This timing difference also leads to late week uncertainty. The slower Euro solutions leave a boundary in the region which serves as a focus for continued weak precip chances (15-20%) that then ramp back up Thursday evening (35-45%) into Friday. This is compared to the faster GFS solutions which are mainly dry during this period. These differences continue into Friday night and Saturday but both the EPS and GEFS show chances for measurable rainfall Friday night into Saturday but their deterministic counterparts are mainly dry.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Low VFR ceilings across the northeast terminals will scatter out overnight. Winds will begin to increase towards daybreak with north winds shifting east between 5-10 kts during the day Saturday. High clouds begin to return towards the end of the TAF period with winds turning light Saturday night.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.