textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- On and off chances of showers and thunderstorms chances can be expected tonight through Thursday night, with the highest chances (60-90%) late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

- Isolated storms late tonight into Wednesday morning could produce small hail, and most of our region is in a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- A lull in the convective activity is expected Friday (just isolated showers and storms possible), then chances will increase back up to 70-100% late Friday night through much of Saturday. On and off chances (20-50%) of mainly showers will continue Saturday night through Tuesday.

- Rainfall totals tonight through Saturday night will be generally from 1 to 2.5-3 inches, with the highest totals in southwest Indiana, portions of southern Illinois north of Route 13, and the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri.

- Temperatures will be significantly above normal tonight through early next week, with both highs and lows 10 to 25 degrees above normal. Friday will be the warmest day.

UPDATE

Issued at 439 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A frontal boundary lifted north through much of the PAH forecast area (fa) earlier today. Forecast models show this boundary remaining draped across northern portions or just north of our area tonight into Thursday. The boundary will be the focus for better chances of showers and some thunderstorms tonight through midday Wednesday. By late Wednesday, a surface low will move along the boundary, dragging cold front into the PAH fa Wednesday evening into Thursday. The HRRR shows mid level lapse rates just above 7 C/km late tonight into Wednesday morning near the boundary, so any storms that develop could produce some small hail. Instability will increase with the approach of the cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Along with dew points climbing into the lower 60s and peak surface heating, SPC has increased the severe potential Wednesday afternoon and evening in most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois to a Slight Risk, with most of the rest of the PAH fa in a Marginal Risk. Rain chances will peak late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday at 70-90%.

The cold front will follow the trend of the previous boundary, laying out from west to east across or just north of our region Thursday night into Friday. Overall chances will decrease Thursday night to 10-20% across southern portions of west Kentucky and southeast Missouri to 40-60% in southwest Indiana and portions of southern Illinois north of Route 13. On Friday we will see the least convective activity, with just isolated showers and storms expected.

By late Friday night into Saturday, models take a surface low through southeast Canada, dragging a cold front through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Ahead and along the front, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase to 70-100% late Friday night through the day Saturday. Timing of front across our region helps keep the best severe potential west of of area Friday, but the CSU-MLP does indicate some potential Friday night in southeast Missouri and north of the Ohio River. Timing of the front will be a big factor in any severe potential, and is just something to keep an eye on for now. Of greater confidence is the potential for widespread decent rainfall with plentiful low level moisture. Forecast rainfall amounts just in the Friday night through Saturday evening time frame are from 0.75 to 1.25 inches.

Current forecast rainfall totals from tonight through Saturday night range from an inch in the southern Pennyrile of west Kentucky to 2.5+ inches in portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. On and off chances of mainly showers will linger into Sunday and early next week. These amounts spread out over several days along with our area needing the rain will prevent any impacts other than brief ponding of water of roadways during heavy rain.

Temperatures will be an impressive 10 to 25 degrees above normal starting with today and continuing into next week. Our warmest period will be Friday into Friday night, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s (readings that are warmer than our normal high temperatures).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 439 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Only subtle adjustments are anticipated with the 00Z package, as all terminals fully warm sector and we slowly destabilize with time as low pressure takes shape and approaches/rides along the boundary into our vicinity by tmrw. This will trend us toward an increase/lowering of bases, and increase pcpn chances with time, including thunder. These are all trends properly modeled and contained within the existing/inherited package, so we'll further refine with additional model data and real-time data this evening for the ensuing 06Z set.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.