textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet, less humid conditions with seasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday.

- A small chance (15-20%) of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast Saturday in far northern and western portions of the region, but most locations will remain dry. Better chances (50-80%) are forecast throughout the region Sunday through Tuesday. - Humidity levels will become soupy again this weekend into early next week when heat indices will climb above 90 degrees each afternoon from Monday through Wednesday

UPDATE

Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through Friday, and likely into Saturday as well. The upper-level ridge will be suppressed Friday into Saturday which will allow some showers and thunderstorms to approach the Quad State from the north and west on Saturday. However, the latest NBM PoPs just barely climb up to 15% along the northern and western periphery of the region.

A weak mid/upper-level storm system will lift north northeast through the Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. Combined with continue moist southerly flow in the low-levels, this will result in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Quad State. The best chances at this time are around 80% over southeast Missouri Monday afternoon.

After Monday, high pressure aloft will try to reassert itself over the Quad State, which should at least reduce the coverage of daily showers and storms for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The flow aloft will be weak, so no organized severe storms are expected through the period, but given the anomalously high (150-175% of normal) precipitable water values forecast, an isolated wet downburst can never be ruled out. Despite the anomalously high moisture content, the 12Z ensemble guidance only indicates a 40(NE)-80(SW) chance of one inch or more of rainfall through Wednesday. The probability of 2+" of rain is 10% or less across the region.

Temperatures will trend upward through the weekend, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Saturday and remaining there through the first half of next week. The 12Z ECENS has up to an 80% chance of temperatures reaching 90 over northern portions of southern Illinois Saturday, and up to a 50% chance there on Sunday. However, the 12Z GEFS has much lesser chances of hitting 90 through the period. Increasing moisture, clouds, and showers and thunderstorms will likely hold temperatures back a bit for next week. However, surface dewpoints climbing toward 70 degrees Sunday into next week will take heat indices into the lower 90s each day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates the forecast, so there exists only subtleties to the otherwise Visual Flight Rules package. FEW-SCT mainly diurnal bases will range from 4-6K FT AGL. Time/height cross sections indicate some sub 30 mb condensation pressure deficits might support temporary CIGS northeast, so gave that an afternoon tempo category just in case. Diurnal flow will be generally 10 kts or less out of developing southerlies tmrw, as the surface high shifts slowly eastward with time.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.