textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of showers and thunderstorms this morning may produce areas of flash flooding.

- This afternoon and evening, additional scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop, with damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rain being the main threats.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will arrive Sunday and continue into most of next week. Daily peak heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Radar is active tonight with multiple showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing. This activity is tied to an upper level disturbance that is pushing into the Quad State. A front is nearly stalled out from north central Oklahoma northeast into central Missouri and southern Illinois. The increased forcing aloft and boundary in concert with very high PW's is leading to very efficient rainfall tonight. As far as the marginal risk, can't rule out another strong to severe storm overnight. Instability is decreasing though and wind shear is weak overall. The higher threat will be the potential for flash flooding.

Additional rain and storms are expected to develop closer to and after 9Z tonight. This activity will be aided by a 30-35 knot low level jet and increasing moisture advection. Once again, heavy rainfall rates will be a concern leading to the potential for flash flooding. Friday looks more interesting for the strong/severe perspective. While rain/storms will be ongoing through the first half of today, some recovery is expected with boundary layer destabilization taking place by the afternoon. The potential for an MCV along with residual outflow boundaries will be a focus for convection today. While mid/upper level flow is modest, the possibility of a developing surface low to the north and west would allow for a strengthening low level response in the wind fields. This would certainly aid in increased shear for rotating updrafts. The slight risk has been expanding to include much of the area for the day 1 outlook. The 5% tornado is still mostly confined to southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and portions of western Kentucky.

The front begins to lift north a bit on Saturday with another disturbance aloft bringing increased ascent. Rain and storms are forecast to continue Saturday. Saturday carries a marginal risk for a strong storm or two. Additional rain further leads to the potential for flooding. The current flood watch looks to be in good shape. Given the convective nature of this event pinpointing the areas of highest concern is difficult but REFS and HREF both show strong signals in a heavy rain event.

Sunday begins a pattern change with a ridge developing across the Mississippi River Valley. Ridging aloft continues into much of next week leading to highs in the 90s, and mid to upper 90s by the middle of next week. Combined with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, daily heat index values of 105 to 110F are forecast through at least the middle of the week and likely beyond. A Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning will likely been needed during this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are impacting the western terminals and will continue to lift northeast. A lull will occur later this morning before another round of convection develops in the afternoon when a few severe storms will be possible. Any storm that develops will also be capable of causing torrential downpours and frequent lightning.

A period of MVFR conditions, with pockets of IFR remain on track for later this morning into this afternoon. Winds will be south around 8-11 kts with gusts near 20 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>111. IN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ014-018.