textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and/or storms are possible (15-40% chances) late tonight in southwest Indiana and adjacent areas of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

- Record warmth is likely Thursday with forecast high temperatures a couple degrees above the many of the current records.

- A strong cold front moving through the region Thursday night will bring good chances (60-80%) of showers and some thunderstorms late Thursday evening through Friday.

- Any severe thunderstorm potential north of Interstate 64 Thursday evening will be very limited, with the best potential remaining north of our region.

- There will be a significant cool down Friday into Saturday, with lows Friday night near the freezing mark.

- A warming trend will begin Sunday, with temperatures back near 80 degrees by Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Models show a weak upper level wave moving through the Ohio valley late tonight. The model blend produces 15-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms across southwest Indiana and adjacent areas of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky between 11pm and 7am. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch, with potentially higher amounts with thunderstorms, and many areas actually remaining dry.

Low level moisture will increase across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys today into tomorrow, with dew points climbing from the 30s to lower 40s this morning, to the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday. This is in response to increasing southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures across our region Thursday will climb into the middle to upper 80s. Most of our record highs are in the 81-83 degree range, so we are likely to set new records at most locations by at least a couple of degrees.

It will become quite breezy Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Models bring the front through the PAH forecast area late Thursday evening and overnight, with precipitation mainly from right along to well behind the front. The timing of the front well after peak heating is playing a big factor in the severe potential. By the time precipitation spreads into our northern counties late Thursday evening, CAPE values will already be decreasing significantly. Any severe potential will be confined to areas north of Interstate 64 by late evening, so the window will be quite short. The latest SPC Day 2 now barely clips our northernmost counties in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

Late Thursday night, precipitation will quickly spread south across our region. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected (chances 60-80%) from just before daybreak through midday, with precipitation ending from north to south Friday afternoon. Thunderstorm potential will gradually decrease from north to south Friday morning as the front pushes on farther south of our region, with mainly just showers by midday. Rainfall totals by the end of Friday will overall range from a tenth to a half inch, with the higher amounts mainly across southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.

A significant cool down can be expected behind the front, with highs Friday from the lower 50s north to the 60s south, and Saturday in the middle to upper 50s. Of concern are the lows Friday night, ranging from around 32 degrees north to the middle 30s south. Models keep the wind up around 5 mph, which will help a little in reducing frost potential, but this is something that will need to be monitored. Winds will shift back to the south late Saturday night into Sunday, and this will continue the temperature roller coaster as another warming trend begins. By Tuesday, readings will return back to around 80 degrees.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Elevated instability may allow for a light shower chance late tonight, mainly north and east (KMVN-KEVV-KOWB). Otherwise expect SCT-BKN mid clouds to disperse by tmrw morning as south winds pick up again and get gusty again, esp during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.