textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major warm up continues into the weekend with highs trending into the 50s and 60s. There is a 60-70% chance portions of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri reach 70 degrees on Saturday. A slight cool down follows early next week.

- Intervals of scattered light rain showers are expected late Wednesday into Thursday with a 40-60% chance peaking during the morning hours. Rainfall amounts still appear low. Scattershot rain chances return late in the weekend with some hint of a more organized system into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2026

We lose the wind from yesterday an end up a step warmer today with highs pushing 60 degrees. The rainfall event Wednesday night into Thursday continues to trend down with pretty unimpressive forcing driven by a sloppy broad trough and limited moisture return. We warm up a little more Friday and Saturday amid a patchwork of high clouds.

Another front tries to work towards the area and then stalls as flow aloft becomes zonal. We have scattershot rain chances with little impulses in the wave and bouts of stronger frontogenetic forcing but there are still no amounts or moments that are particularly impressive for rainfall until perhaps Monday or Tuesday when a larger more robust trough starts working into the western US and leads to a more amplified pattern. Details of course yet to emerge but the theme in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance is that strong/broad moisture return finally gets going ahead of an approaching front and its the kind of pattern at least some severe weather or heavy rainfall threats could emerge depending on how it all plays out. Otherwise relatively benign conditions with and slightly above normal temperatures look in the offing through the next 6 days or so.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Low-level wind shear is the primary flight impediment tonight. Surface winds are still fairly gusty but observations and modeling show winds at 1500-2000 ft still running at 50 to 55 kts. The gradient should begin to relax over the next 3-5 hours reducing this shear with lighter southwesterly winds during the day Wednesday amid VFR conditions. Some low level cloud cover may begin to overspread the region late Wednesday night but the probability is too low for TAF mention right now.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.