textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this evening. Main threat is damaging winds. Low to medium confidence on location and timing.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms tomorrow afternoon. Main threat is damaging winds. Low confidence on location and timing.

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory are in effect through Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Prominent ridging continues out west with the ridge axis over the Rockies. That places us in northwest flow aloft with a couple of ridge rider waves influencing our weather today and tomorrow. There is low to medium confidence on the potential for convection this afternoon through the early overnight. SPC does, however, have us in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather should this complex form, with damaging winds being the main threat. Models are juggling this evening's convection with most bringing an MCV through eastern portions of the CWA, while a few (such as the 13Z HRRR) miss us just east. Best timing looks to be around 5PM - 10PM, though some convection may pop up as early as 19Z and may linger as late as 11- 12Z tomorrow. Another wave tomorrow may generate convection that models have mostly missing us to the east. SPC has us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the eastern half of the CWA, main threat is damaging winds again.

With regards to the heat...due to the lack of convection this morning and dewpoints in the 80s, have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning east by a row of counties and run it through Tuesday. Have also expanded the Heat Advisory to the remainder of the CWA for Tuesday. Both regions now run from today through Tuesday. There is a lot of boundary layer moisture and subsequent high dewpoints through Tuesday along with highs in the mid to upper 90s generally. Some of this may be mitigated by convection at times. Some relief comes on Wednesday onward with highs in the 80s, feeling more seasonable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are tracking southward from the Evansville Tri-State through the Kentucky Pennyrile. Regions that received rainfall today will be prone to fog development in clear skies, but an area of roughly 1000ft ceilings is located to the northwest of the heavy rain area and could result in low stratus instead. VFR conditions return tomorrow with southwesterly winds of 5-10kts. Model spread on shower/thunderstorm timing and positioning Monday is very high but several models show a west to east oriented line of storms moving southward into the Quad State, with the evening hours the most common of that group of models.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-076- 080>082-084>086-088>094. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ077-078-083-087. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>012. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ013>022.