textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round or two of showers and storms is likely today into tonight. Severe storms and flash flooding are both potential concerns with this system. All hazards are possible but damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern. There is roughly a 20-30% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 2" across the west half of the region.

- Early next week is expected to be cooler and less humid. There is a very high chance (greater than 90%) at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday! This appears short- lived though as higher humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the week.

- An unsettled weather pattern may unfold from mid week into next weekend with near daily chances for showers and storms potentially. There is roughly a 40-60% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 3" over the next 10 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A disturbance aloft is expected to push eastward from the Central Plains into the lower Ohio Valley and interact with a frontal boundary to produce at least one, but potentially two rounds of showers and storms through tonight. Initial thunderstorm development appears probable to our west across Missouri this morning into midday and this activity may congeal into an MCS of sorts as it pushes into our area through the afternoon. Sufficient shear along with strong instability will provide a favorable environment for severe storms. All hazards are possible, but damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern. Depending on how this first round evolves, there may be another MCS that dives southeastward into our area by late evening into the overnight. Some guidance has this second round a bit more suppressed to our southwest though, which is a distinct possibility if the afternoon round muddles up the instability field and shifts it southwest of our cwa. Certainly a rather low confidence forecast.

Precipitable water values are forecast to exceed 2" which will lead to very efficient rainfall producers from the storms today into tonight. The potential for multiple rounds lends to an increased concern for flash flooding. However, given model variability we have fairly low confidence on where the potential heavy rain axis may set up (and it very well could be off to our west). The HRRR is certainly rather concerning with its swath of 3-5" through the heart of the area, but it is the most aggressive of the CAMs. Contemplated a Flood Watch, but in the end have decided to hold off for now, and hopefully new guidance in the morning can lend higher confidence in whether one is needed or not. NBM has roughly a 20-30% chance at amounts exceeding 2" across the west half of the cwa.

Any lingering showers Sunday morning will give way to a dry afternoon as lower humidity begins to invade the region. Dew points fall into the 50s later in the day in the northwest and then filter down across the entire region Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures likely will struggle to reach 80 on Sunday and only be in the mid 70s on Monday. Medium range guidance has been trending a bit more unsettled from mid week into next weekend, with near daily chances for showers and storms. LREF probabilities show a 40-60% chance of at least 3" of rain over the next 10 days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Patchy dense fog is impacting the southern half of the region this morning including KCGI/KPAH. Vsbys should improve by 13z, but cig restrictions may continue for a few hours afterwards. Multiple rounds of convection are possible today, with the first round this afternoon into early evening, and a second round primarily focused overnight. Will see vsbys/cigs lower in the heavier activity. Late tonight, MVFR or IFR cigs look to spread across the region.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.