textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will stream across the Quad State late this afternoon through tonight. A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible mainly late this afternoon and this evening, especially over southern portions of the region.

- Breezy north winds Wednesday will send temperatures down to near normal levels or below through Saturday. It should be dry through the period for most of the Quad State, but a period or two of light rain cannot be ruled out (15-20% chance) over southern portions of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky.

- Temperatures will climb back above normal early next week, as 15-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms return.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Overnight convection should be southeast of the Quad State by daybreak today, and most of the day should be dry.

Much of the latest guidance has backed off on the severe storm potential for today, as instability is now much more limited. The RRFS, HREF, and HRRR confine any tangible surface-based instability and severe storm threat to the southern border region from around Carter County to Calloway County in the 4-8 PM time frame. Later as the upper system approaches and some semblance of a surface wave lifts northeast across the Quad State, instability is extremely limited, resulting in more showers over the entire region late this evening into the overnight hours, and possibly into Wednesday morning in the far east.

The environment will likely change rapidly through the day, and there is still plenty of potential for conditions to support a more robust severe weather threat than is currently advertised by much of the CAM guidance. The more significant hail and tornado threats depicted in the SPC Day 1 Outlook certainly cannot be ruled out at this time. Needless to say after Monday's event, forecast confidence is quite low.

Gusty northwest winds will usher in much cooler air to the Quad State Wednesday. Confluent flow aloft should keep the region dry through the end of the week, but the NBM still has a 15-20% chance of light rain over southern portions of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky Friday into Friday evening.

Cyclonic northwest flow aloft will keep the weekend dry, but guidance brings a couple of impulses through the Great Lakes that could bring some convection into the Quad State Monday and Tuesday (15-30% chance). Surface high pressure will have the Gulf locked up tight, so moisture will be severely limited which should make it difficult to get any tangible precipitation to the Quad State.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A brief MVFR ceiling will be possible for the first few hours this morning. The next round of convection will impact KCGI and KPAH with TSRA from 21Z to 01Z, After a short break, widespread showers are expected to overspread all sites late this evening into the overnight hours. Some thunder is possible. The cold front will push southeast through all sites from 04Z at KMVN to 10Z at KOWB. MVFR or lower ceilings are possible behind the front.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.