textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect today through Friday for a prolonged heatwave. Daily heat index values up to 100-106 are expected. - There is a 30-40% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday that may provide limited relief from the heat. Rainfall amounts locally up to a quarter of an inch are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A prolonged heatwave remains on track for the entire week with a 594 dm ridge now in control. Southerly return flow will continue to advect in higher dewpoints, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. With 850 mb temps leveling off around 19-22C, maxTs are less likely to overachieve with a deep dry layer no longer present in model soundings. After blending NBM temps with CONS model guidance through Wednesday to nudge closer to the ECMWF MOS, daily highs range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The dry heat translates to daily heat index values ranging from 100-106; however, today will be closer to 100. Due to low confidence in seeing 4 consecutive days of heat index values at or above 105 at any given location, collaborated with WFO LSX/SGF to replace the Extreme Heat Watch with a Heat Advisory that now runs from Monday through Friday. There is still a possibility a targeted warning may be needed later this week, but for now this looks to only occur in a few locations at best where highs near 100 degrees are progged. NBM may also be overdoing nighttime lows that are being factored into the heat risk, with extreme levels currently being progged for mid to late week. The heat risk also does not take into consideration the recent heatwaves we have had this summer with much higher dewpoints.

By Friday, consensus has increased on model guidance for the ridge to breakdown faster, allowing for a mid-level shortwave to move downstream towards the FA. While the GFS is slower in bringing a sfc frontal boundary south that stalls in the vicinity on Saturday, the ECMWF/CMC are more progressive with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Friday that is not currently being modeled well by the NBM. As a result, only 20% PoPs are progged for each day. Given the latest trends and increasing ensemble support, will message a 30-40% chance of rain that may also help to bring some limited relief from the heatwave. Locally up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop. Highs over next weekend trend into the lower 90s with heat index values falling below advisory criteria.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light S-SW winds around 3-5 kts will continue overnight under mostly clear skies. Winds will increase from the W-SW after 16z Monday as boundary layer mixing ramps up, sustained at 8-12 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts. FEW-SCT diurnal CU will develop, with bases around 7-10kft. Winds will relax to around 5 kts Monday evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.