textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A significant severe weather event remains on track late this afternoon into tonight. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. An initial area of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Quad State this morning, then there will be a break this afternoon before the primary severe weather episode begins.

- Breezy conditions are expected today with wind gusts 25-40 mph. A Wind Advisory for gusts over 40 mph may need to be issued this afternoon (~50% chance).

- Another round of severe storms is possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Very large hail (>2") and damaging winds are the primary threats, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

- It will be warm again today, but the early rainfall could hold high temperatures down by a few degrees from previous forecast levels. Temperatures will trend down to normal or just below for Wednesday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A cluster of convection over east central Missouri will move eastward over the northern half of the Quad State in the next few hours. It should be running out of any significant instability, so a weakening trend is expected. The latest HRRR shows the northern portion of the cluster dissipating over southern Illinois by daybreak. It also develops another line of storms that moves southeast through southeast Missouri through daybreak. This area continues into west Kentucky and eventually dissipates over the Pennyrile later this morning. Surface-based instability will be limited to under 500J/kg, so the storms will most likely be elevated. Torrential rainfall and lightning should be the primary concerns, but some hail cannot be ruled out.

There is plenty of flow and forcing for the air mass to recover over the Quad State behind this morning's system. As the associated MCV continues east, subsidence should help to limit convection over the Quad State until close to 00Z. Most of the 00Z and later CAM data develops scattered supercells along the cold front/dryline to the west of the area late this afternoon. The environment is forecast to be absurdly strong with CAPE over 3000J/kg and 0-3km SRH 300-400m2s2. The RRFS has STP values from 5-10 over southeast Missouri. The general trend in the CAMs is for storms to remain discrete or possibly form into short line segments where they can hold onto their supercellular characteristics. This will lead to a very large hail and strong tornado (up to EF-3) threat. The worst conditions are expected over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but the instability drops off considerably over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile in west Kentucky, so the storms should weaken as they move into our eastern counties in the late evening or overnight hours.

The 00Z ECENS has a 90% or greater chance of wind gusts reaching at least 40 mph this afternoon and it usually verifies well. However, given the early morning convection, we decided to cap gusts to 39 mph for now and wait and see how this evolves later this morning. The day shift can re-evaluate the need for a Wind Advisory later today.

The 00Z guidance continues to bring a surface wave through the Quad State late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Strong instability is expected to develop and the shear has increased sufficiently to support another round of severe storms. There should be steep lapse rates in the low and mid-levels and some substantial downdraft CAPE, so large hail and damaging winds are a strong possibility. There may even be a tornado threat, as there are indications that the low-level shear could increase significantly in the evening.

With three rounds of storms possible through Tuesday night, 2-3" of rainfall is expected, and some localized higher amounts are possible. This should certainly help the drought conditions across the region, but some isolated flash flooding concerns could develop where the heaviest rain falls.

We should be dry with north winds by daybreak Wednesday. Temperatures will drop to normal or below through at least Saturday, and no precipitation is expected. The NBM still has some 20-30% PoPs in the south Friday, but the 00Z guidance keeps that precipitation to the south of the Quad State. There is no QPF.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

On and off shra/tsra possible through the TAF period, with timing of best chances very challenging. Shra and isolated/scattered tsra possible near KCGI/KPAH/KMVN after 11z, with a lull late morning. More isolated activity expected at KEVV/KOWB. At all sites, chances increasing late afternoon and especially after 00z, with strong to severe storms possible with gusty winds. MVFR/IFR vsbys likely with storms, and MVFR cigs possible. Away from convection, VFR conditions expected with south/southeast winds around 10kts increasing to 12-18kts with gusts around 25kts, shifting to southwest after 00z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.