textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with warm days and cool nights will continue through the work week.

- Chances of showers return to the region this weekend, with the best chances Saturday evening into Sunday. Additional chances will linger into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Upper-level ridging, along with strong high pressure to the east, will keep conditions warm and dry through the workweek with highs rising to near 80 later in the week and lows rising to the 50s. Patchy morning fog continues to be a daily issue. While we have had an extended period of dry weather, winds will continue to be light, limiting fire weather potential.

The primary consideration remains the arrival of rains from what is currently Tropical Storm Vance off the western coast of Mexico. Bringing plenty of moisture, albeit more so at elevated levels, this system is likely to affect the Quad State over the weekend, though timing varies. PoPs max out around 50-60% Saturday evening through early Sunday, with northeastern areas more likely to have rain hold off until after most Halloween activities are complete, with SEMO most likely to be affected. The blend did put thunder back in for southernmost portions of SEMO Saturday afternoon-night, but instability remains limited and we remain on the fringes of thunderstorm activity. QPF remains fairly low, order of a quarter to half inch Saturday evening through Sunday. The high moisture levels from the remnants of a tropical system can exceed that, though would have to do so by a lot to produce flooding issues.

While the tropical remnants move through over the weekend, an upper low moves into the Pacific northwest while moisture arrives at the base of a deep trough in Southern California. Operational global models favor taking these two features through the Rockies and producing a broad, developing system over the Central Plains. Of course, being roughly a week out and involving elements from multiple systems, timing varies across models, along with positioning, so PoPs are limited and spread out for now. Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Early morning fog will dissipate within a couple hours. Afterwards, VFR conditions are once again forecast with high clouds and light southerly winds. Localized vsby drops will be possible at the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.