textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Following some pre-dawn storms along the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri-State, southwesterly winds become breezy with Lake Wind Advisory and elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread southeast across the entire region Monday night into Tuesday morning, with 80-100% chances Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

- Chances (30% north to 60-70% southeast) of showers will linger into Wednesday, with a few thunderstorms still possible near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders, then showers will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday night.

- Rainfall amounts hold fairly steady, with the latest forecast amounts mostly in the one to one and three quarters of an inch range. Chances of greater than an inch are 60-80%, and greater than 2 inches are 15-40%.

- Low end chances (20-30%) of showers and storms are forecast Friday night and again on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

An upper level disturbance crossing through the Midwest tonight has produced showers and thunderstorms tracking east- southeastward through Central Illinois. Areas along the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri-State have a 20-40% chance of showers through dawn. Some small hail can't be ruled out but approaching storms have lost the severe potential some of them carried further northwest.

Lingering slight chances of showers continue in the far north Monday while dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Breezy southwesterly winds ramp up today with sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for the forecast area. Considering RHs bottoming out around 30% today, along with dry soil conditions, these breezy winds will also result in elevated fire weather conditions.

Low pressure today over Ontario trails an extended cold front southwestward to the Central Plains. Models, especially the CAMs, have trended towards drier conditions for the Quad State today and delayed onset of activity tonight to almost exclusively after midnight. Showers and storms become widespread by early Tuesday, with numerous showers (80-100% chance) Tuesday and Tuesday night when the cold front slowly drifts southward through the Quad State. Before that happens, breezy southwesterly winds will continue Tuesday. The best potential for some strong to severe storms will be Tuesday afternoon and evening, which has a portion of SEMO upgraded to a D2 Slight Risk as low pressure organizing in Oklahoma/Arkansas begins tracking east-northeastward along the front. Models have varied timing and positioning of MCS features, some of which would keep severe weather south of the Quad State. Monday night-Tuesday morning activity muddies the picture for what follows.

Shower and thunderstorm activity decreases following the front, but remains through at least the day Wednesday, mainly in Western Kentucky. Overall QPF remains around 1-1.75in which should provide beneficial rains for the ongoing drought, without causing much of any flooding issues.

Late week/weekend activity is fairly likely but carries uncertainty with a split flow in the west that meets up near the Quad State. A cutoff low is located in the Desert Southwest late week while systems plunging southeastward from the northwest around a ridge. One of those northern track systems reaches the Midwest Friday and may extend a cold front through the Quad State but NBM PoPs have been reduced to a slight chance Friday night so this could well stay north and/or weaken. Sunday PoPs in the chance range are a mix of ensemble members placing the Quad State either on the northern side of the eastward progression of the cutoff low, in the path of the next disturbance from the northwest, or some of both.

Temperatures surge today with gusty southwesterly winds, lifting highs to around 80. Continued southerly breezes keep lows tonight in the upper 50s to near 60. Rainy conditions Tuesday limit highs and the cold front Tuesday night will return us to well below normal temperatures mid-week. A warming trend afterwards lifts highs to the mid-70s next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions with gusty south winds remain forecast for the rest of the afternoon and early evening. A few showers may approach MVN but the odds seems fairly low for now. Rain showers and thunderstorms will become a factor most everywhere by the late overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday with MVFR/IFR cigs and visibility possible towards the end of the new TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.