textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will climb 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Tuesday through at least Saturday.

- A period of unsettled weather begins late Thursday night and continues into next week. At this time, the best chances of showers and thunderstorms (~80%) will be Friday into Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

South winds will kick in Tuesday morning and high pressure aloft will gradually build over the Quad State through Wednesday. The result will be a nice warm up to above normal temperatures. The 12Z GEFS and ECENS indicate a near certainty of temperatures climbing above 70 from Tuesday through Friday, with slightly lower probabilities over the weekend. The GEFS has very little chance of 80 degrees readings through the week, but the ECENS has a 50-80% chance of reaching the lower 80s over the southern half of the region Wednesday through Friday. The NBM appears to favor the ECENS, so we have lower 80s in the forecast throughout the area Thursday and over west Kentucky Friday.

The skinny upper ridge will push east of the Quad State Friday, resulting in west southwest flow aloft. An impulse pushing through the central and northern Plains Thursday night into the Upper Midwest Friday will push a cold front and area of convection through the Quad State, mainly Friday into Friday night. The 12Z GEFS has a 50-70% chance of at least 1000 J/kg of CAPE over southeast Missouri Friday afternoon and evening with much lower probabilities farther east. The flow aloft will be rather weak, so a significant severe storm threat is not anticipated at this time. Although a stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out over southeast Missouri.

The 12Z guidance in general wants to push the cold front to the south of the Quad State for the weekend, which could result in dry conditions, but there remains some potential for convection to roll southeast through southeast Missouri Saturday afternoon or evening. A stronger storm system may bring a better chance of severe storms next Monday into Monday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Light and variable winds will become southwest and increase in the morning. Gusts to around 20kts will be possible, with the strongest winds at KMVN.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.