textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures begin today and last through the forecast period (and possibly beyond). There is a greater than 50% chance of seeing 70+ degrees today south of I-64. Friday has a 50- 65% chance of seeing 80+ over west KY.

- An unsettled pattern this week will bring near daily chances for rain. Chances for 3+" when all is said and done, have trended down slightly to around 30-60% with the highest chances north of a line from Carbondale to Evansville.

- A couple of days could see some severe potential, right now Wednesday is in a Marginal Risk from SPC mainly for the afternoon hours. Saturday could also see some severe storms based on the broad 5% area from the CSU MLP (not outlooked yet from SPC).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Zonal flow aloft continues through today and becomes more southwesterly on Wednesday. The boundary to our south will lift north as a warm front and bring us much warmer temperatures today. There is a greater than 50% chance of reaching at least 70 degrees today south of I-64. This front will also serve as a focus for showers and even some thunderstorms early this morning and dduring the day for areas further north. There is a 40-80% chance in the morning for showers/storms and a 30-60% chance late morning through the afternoon (focused north). There is a greater than 40% chance of seeing at least 0.5" of rain north of a line from Carbondale, IL to Evansville, IN.

Wednesday we transition to more southwesterly flow aloft as broad troughing sets up over the western CONUS and ridging begins to establish over the eastern CONUS. Not only will this keep our temperatures warm (generally in the 70s) into next week, but it will also lead to some beneficial rainfall across the region. Several disturbances will eject from the western trof and roll through the region bringing near daily chances for showers and storms. Wednesday there is a roughly 50-90% chance of showers and storm (greatest north) throughout the day. This continues Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave passes through the Midwest. Wednesday afternoon dewpoints may reach into the lower 60s with increasing instability and bulk shear around 35-50 kts. This may result in a few severe storms during mainly the afternoon and evening, SPC's Marginal Risk makes sense.

Friday might see a brief lull in activity before a cold front comes through on Saturday. Friday will have the warmest temperatures of the forecast period with some low 80s being possible (50-65% chance mainly over west KY). There could be some record highs, particularly for Paducah and Carbondale. Paducah's record is 77 from 1994 (could see 80), and Carbondale's is 77 from 2009 (could see 79). Saturday's storms might pose another sever weather threat. The CSU MLP has a broad 5% area but the 15% area is not far away. Precip wise, the LREF has backed off somewhat on the chances for 3+ inches of rain to now being 30-60% by March 12th. This is highest north of a line from Carbondale to Evansville. Sunday will be briefly cooler in the 60s behind the cold front before temperatures rebound Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Minor adjustments to the 00Z package include socking it in lower with bases as currently being observed or on the near horizon, then holding that thru the bulk of the overnight until the boundary returns north as we warm sector. Some light shower activity may offer additional sensible wx restrictions that otherwise BR/MIFG restricts to MVFR wrt VSBYS, particularly as it becomes more quasi-stationary on its northern-most advance and thus continues some prob30/VCSH thru the day there (KMVN- KEVV-KOWB). Otherwise, at least some temporary improvements into MVFR and perhaps VFR may become a possibility deeper within the warm sector tmrw, particularly at KCGI/KPAH, as southerlies establish.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.