textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- The Heat Advisory comes to an end at 7 PM this evening. Most locations will experience 95 to 100 degree heat indices this afternoon.

- The heat is off! A cold front will usher in much cooler air to the region, as it moves through tonight. Temperatures for the next week should be near normal with highs near 80 and lows in the upper 50s.

- An area of showers and thunderstorms will spread east along the I-64 corridor late tonight into Monday morning. Another area will spread east across the southern half of the Quad State late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The chance of rain through the period is 30-60%.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

High clouds have been effective in holding temperatures back a bit through the day, but most locations will still see temperatures or heat indices in the 95-100 range. Will let the Heat Advisory die a natural death at 7 PM this evening.

The cold front will push through the area tonight. Minor disturbances in the weak westerly flow aloft will bring multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms to the Quad State late tonight through Tuesday.

The chances begin late this evening through Monday morning along the I-64 corridor. Much of this activity may remain north of the area, but if we do get some into the area, especially this evening, there may be enough shear and instability to support a stray strong to severe storm with damaging winds.

The better chance will be late Monday afternoon over southeast Missouri, especially over the Ozark Foothills. Moderate instability is possible over there, so a stray storm could pulse up close to severe levels with very isolated gusty winds. There is a consistent signal amongst most of the guidance to then slowly push scattered showers and thunderstorms eastward across the southern tip of Illinois and much of west Kentucky Monday night. Instability will be limited so lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns. Some showers may linger into Tuesday over west Kentucky before the mid/upper-level energy pushes east of the area.

Surface high pressure and eventually high pressure aloft will then keep the Quad State dry with seasonable temperatures through the remainder of the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The TAFs are VFR through 06Z. As surface high pressure builds southward into and through the region tonight, MVFR or lower ceilings will spread south across the northern three TAF sites overnight. IFR ceilings are most likely at KMVN. The ceilings will gradually lift in the morning and should be VFR by the end of this forecast except at KMVN. As for convection, forecast coverage is dwindling, but did throw in a PROB30 for TSRA/SHRA at KMVN 06Z-12Z. The convection could impact KEVV and KOWB in the morning, but confidence is too low to mention there.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.