textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal for most of the week. The warmest day will be Tuesday with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s.

- Breezy conditions will continue through Tuesday with gusts peaking between 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. There is a 60 to 80% chance wind gusts exceed 35 mph locally. Elevated fire weather danger will continue, especially on Tuesday.

- Rain chances arrive late Tuesday night and persist through Saturday night. Rain amounts have trended lower with only a 30 to 50% chance of total rainfall exceeding 2 inches by Sunday. Thursday and Saturday now have the highest probabilities of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Southerly return flow will allow for a warming trend to persist today with a ridge of high pressure. Temperatures are now progged to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal through most of the week as a cold front struggles to reach the FA on Wednesday. Daily highs will around or above 80 degrees with lows only falling into the 60s. Deep layer mixing with a tight pressure gradient will yield breezy conditions through Tuesday with wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph. The probability of exceeding 35 mph locally by the EPS is 60 to 80%. Have increased NBM winds for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Given that mixing is likely to overachieve again, moisture recovery will be slower to occur which could mean elevated fire weather concerns even with RH values above 30%. Have trended dewpoints lower with the NBM 10th percentile as there will remain a elevated fire weather danger, especially on Tuesday.

The latest model runs have not only trended slower with the onset of rain chances, but total rainfall through Saturday has also trended significantly lower. While the cold front tries to push southeast towards the FA on Wednesday, it no longer is progged to move through. In fact, all 84 hours of the NAM does not show a single drop of rainfall through 12z Thursday. The GFS is hinting at only sporadic WAA rain showers between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the ECWMF/ICON still tries to bring the cold front closer to the FA which would mean higher rain chances. Regardless of which scenario is correct, better shower and thunderstorm chances are confined to mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday night when a shortwave moves through. There is a 50 to 70% chance of exceeding only a half inch of rainfall by daybreak Friday.

Another system will bring the next best chance of rainfall on Saturday as a 500 mb low digs east of South Dakota with a trailing cold front at the sfc. The forcing and lift remains more robust with this system, but there still is high uncertainty if the ingredients will be in place to support any severe weather potential. The ML probabilistic guidance is hinting at some very low chances, but overall is not high enough yet to be concerning. NBM rain chances peak at 50 to 60% in the afternoon, with dry conditions arriving on Sunday. Total rainfall by the NBM is now progged between 1 to 2 inches, locally higher for most of the FA with a 30 to 50% chance of exceeding 2 inches by Sunday. The rain amounts may still be too optimistic for much needed relief that is needed. While the NBM shows persistent rain chances from Tuesday night through Saturday night, rain is not likely to be falling for at least half that duration which could mean model ensembles trending even lower with total QPF. Behind the cold front, more seasonable temperatures remain on track to return on Sunday to end the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Areas of mid-level stratus are now developing across the region this morning. Pockets of MVFR cigs are possible from 12-16z, mainly at KCGI/KPAH. Low VFR cigs will then persist into the afternoon before scattering out by this evening.

Breezy south winds between 15-20 kts will gust to 25-30 kts today, diminishing to a 10 kt wind after sunset. LLWS is possible across all terminals after 04-06z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.