textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief, light wintry mix will be possible (15-30% chance) very late tonight into early Wednesday morning, potentially causing a few slippery stretches, before quickly transitioning to rain around sunrise.

- Confidence continues to grow in portions of the Quad State seeing impactful wintry weather this weekend with prospects of 4+ inches of snow now increased to the 30-60% range. It is likely that southeast Missouri into western Kentucky would see the greatest probabilities (closer to 60%) for significant snowfall.

- Confidence is high that arctic air will filter in with the winter storm this weekend with temperatures likely (70-100% chance) to run about 20 degrees below normal for Friday through at least Monday!! That would put high temperatures in the teens to low 20s with wind chill readings falling into the single digits above and below zero.

UPDATE

Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Mid-level clouds are moving out of eastern portions of the Quad State at this time. Temperatures have warmed following the clearing, but have only reached the low to upper 30s across the Quad State. Breezy southerly winds and RHs below 30% have kept fire weather conditions elevated this afternoon. Those concerns will drop off as moisture streams into the region tonight.

Lows bottom out in the mid-20s tonight, with warm advection lifting temperatures the remainder of the overnight hours. Light precipitation (15-30% chance) moves into the Quad State from the southwest late tonight, likely beginning as an hour or two of freezing drizzle/drizzle, transitioning to light snow/rain around sunrise as cloud ice presence increases (soundings show the moist layer deepening) and temperatures warm to above freezing. Caution should be advised for early morning travel as slick spots may form. With continued warm advection, temperatures rise to the 40s during the day tomorrow with rain probabilities in the chance to likely range (30-60%). A cold front moves through Wednesday night as an upper trough crosses through the area.

The main event remains the potential snowstorm from Friday evening through early Sunday. A very strong high pressure system in Canada plunges into the Plains towards the Quad State, driving Arctic air through the region Friday, lowering highs Friday to below freezing. Low pressure near the Texas Gulf Coast slowly materializes late week and pushes northeastward. Models agree on keeping freezing rain south of our area, making snow the predominant weather type Friday evening through Sunday. The main difference is in positioning. The GFS, after the last couple runs shifted further north, has returned to tracking the low further south as the high pressure plunges further into the Mid-South, sharply limiting snowfall potential for the Quad State (the GEFS ranges from 2-4 inches). The Euro has a very broad area of heavier snowfall on the northern end of the system and has been pretty consistent on pushing higher totals. The Canadian has a similar position to the Euro but less widespread (north/south) of a heavy snow area, and smaller totals as a result. The forecast sits in between the Canadian and European. Widespread minor impacts are forecast (60-90% chance from north to south), with a decent chance of moderate impacts (40-60%). Probabilities of 2+ and 4+ inches have shifted up around 10% compared to the previous model cycle (30-80% and 20-60%, respectively) with the best chances near the TN border and lower towards Mount Vernon, IL.

When it comes to timing, there is decent model agreement on snow beginning around Friday evening, with measurable snow beginning in the south late Friday night, and during the day Saturday in the north. Most snowfall is expected to occur early Saturday through Saturday night. The forecast pushes snow out of the area Sunday morning, though model spread increases for the end time and the European ensemble tends to hold onto lingering snow through the day Sunday.

The Arctic airmass will plunge temperatures well below normal. Friday highs in the 20-30 range ahead of this system will help secure an all-snow event (there is a very small possibility of some sleet mixing in in the south towards the start of the event). Widespread Friday night lows in the single digits will lead to Saturday highs below 20, allowing for high snow ratios and a fluffier snow. Highs stay in the 20s Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the single digits, with radiational cooling bolstered by any snowpack. Wind chills will be brutal at times, especially Saturday morning with wind chills of -5 down to -12 forecast as breezy northeasterly winds blow in on the southeast side of the high pressure and northeast side of the low, potentially approaching Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Wind chills near 0 are forecast Sunday through Tuesday mornings, during which Cold Weather Advisory products may be issued. Models have trended much colder for early next week as the potential for a lingering snowpack becomes more likely. Dry weather is favored following this winter storm.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

LLWS likely becomes a concern overnight into Wednesday morning as 2kft winds increase to 40-45 kts out of the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture spreads northeast into our region leading to a brief mix of freezing drizzle or snow by 09-10z before transitioning to all rain. Most likely terminals to be impacted are KCGI/KPAH/KOWB and the precip should move out by 16z. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR levels by mid-late morning, and may lower to IFR for mainly west KY in the afternoon. Should see clearing from the northwest through the course of the afternoon, but may not clear west KY until after 00z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.