textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and typical early August temperature and humidity levels will continue today and Wednesday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms (with roughly 25 to 50% coverage) are forecast Thursday through Saturday.

- Increasing heat and humidity levels will bring daily peak heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees to the region early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Synoptically, the region is under the influence of H5 ridging and surface high pressure across the southeast CONUS. Another mid- level ridge is located across the Desert Southwest, while broad troughing is present across the Northern Tier. A deep 996 mb surface low is located over Hudson Bay, with a weak/diffuse trailing cold front oriented from NE to SW across the Great Lakes and Central Great Plains.

The surface high over the southeast CONUS will bring continued dry and seasonable temperature and humidity values today through Wednesday. More shallow predawn fog development is likely Wednesday morning in low spots and near bodies of water. Beginning early Thursday morning, the cold front to our northwest will attempt (but fail) to cross through the area and become stationary across southern/eastern MO into central IL. The closer proximity of the front will initiate periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Right now, the greatest chances (30-50%) look to occur Thursday morning, then during the heat of the afternoon and evening on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. There will be plenty of dry hours during this time, and not everyone will see rain. In terms of any potentially severe thunderstorms, the longer range CAMs show about 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across SE MO and SW IL Thursday afternoon, so an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

By Sunday into next week, the frontal boundary will retreat to the north as H5 ridging across the Desert Southwest expands eastward into the central/southern Great Plains and Ozarks. This will mean increasing temperature and humidity levels, beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. Right now, high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 90s with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. This will yield heat index values of 100-105 degrees. Since the region (especially southwest IN, northwest KY, and the Pennyrile) will be on the eastern flank of the ridge, we will need to watch for potential "ridge-rider" thunderstorm clusters as well during this period, but confidence is low at this time range.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The surface high pressure ridge axis still maintains predominant control on our pattern here, while a retrograde drift of an upper disturbance to our southeast could bring some debris cloud into the forecast picture with time, but likely staying just south and east of the terminal aeorodrome space. Light winds/clear skies and persistence strategy forecast places patchy fog with associated restrictions again tonight, similar to last night, with an also similar to today fast burn-off tmrw morning, returning to VFR all sites by mid-late morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.