textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat and humidity will linger across the area through the upcoming weekend. Heat index values will range from 105-115 degrees each afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning continues through the weekend.

- A 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and a bit lower humidity values are in the forecast for the first half of next week. Temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 90s each day with the exception of the Evansville Tri State where upper 80s are forecast for Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The Extreme Heat Warning for the entire area through Sunday still looks good. Outflow this morning has delayed the warming over the northern half of the Quad State, but it appears that most of that area will still get to a heat index of 105 or greater which is the warning threshold for a long duration (4+ days) heat event. There is some potential for more dry outflow to reach the Evansville Tri State this evening, but that should not have any impact on tomorrow's heat. It still looks like there will be an upward trend in temperatures and a corresponding downward trend in dewpoints through the weekend, but the resulting heat index forecast will be virtually unchanged. Lows tonight and Saturday night are expected to be in the middle to upper 70s, so there will be little relief from the heat at night.

The ridge breaks down late Sunday, resulting in weak west northwest flow aloft over the Quad State Sunday night into Monday. At the surface a weak cold front will enter the area Sunday night and push south of the area by the end of the day Monday. We will see if that happens, but the boundary will provide a focus for convective potential Sunday night and Monday. Depending on the frontal timing, heat indices could climb into the triple digits over the southern half of the region Monday, which would support a Heat Advisory. There will be no need to make that call until Sunday or even Monday morning when confidence in frontal location improves.

After a dry day Tuesday with near normal temperatures, we will warm back up on Wednesday when triple digit heat indices will return to the entire area. There are signs of a more substantial storm system and cold front impacting the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This would likely lead to a good chance of convection followed by a more substantial cool down.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The TAFs are VFR. An outflow boundary has pushed south of KMVN through KOWB, but it will likely mix out later this afternoon with winds returning from the south or southwest. There should be enough wind tonight to prevent fog formation. Southwest winds under 10kts are expected with mixing in the morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.