textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected later today, especially tonight, lingering into Monday; localized flooding heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler and mostly drier conditions return Tuesday, before scattered storms re-enter the forecast later in the week heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The complex of storms marching across MO will push our northern/western reaches this afternoon. MUCAPEs will be making their way into 4 digits, despite incoming clouds retarding the diurnal rise. Dew points already into the lower 70s across our south will solidify their ground over the entirety of the FA this pm. Bulk shear and lapse rates similarly improve with the system's approach, so any PM storm does show strong-svr potential. However, the track of this driving low looks primarily to be to our north, and the main first threat looks to follow its track.

Our best best for more robust/widespread storms comes later, into the 00z-06z time frame, as the 2ndary wave develops and rides along the boundary. By then, the upper shear profiles have peaked, and helicity picks up, at least along the boundary/in the vicinity of the wave's track, which dives southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Expect an all hazards severe mode with this wave, and in addition, near 2" PW's with E-SAT's showing 10-30 year Return Intervals suggest an efficiency to heavy rain producing storms that if they train/repeat over the same areas, could enhance storm average forecast total signals of around an inch, to localized totals 2-3x higher. We'll therefore continue the Flood Watch in our peak threat areas north for now, with collaborative efforts driving any southward expansion.

Storms linger along/in advance of the boundary into Monday as it moves eastward and southward coincident with the low's track up the Ohio valley, which ultimately winds pops down with relatively cooler/drier air coming in its place by Tuesday. Pops start to pick up again later in the week, esp into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Storm chances increase thru the TAF forecast period, with restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS increasing with pops. Peak restrictions will be this evening/overnight, when stronger storms may drive Instrument Flight Rules at times. South winds shift to northwest upon system passage late tonight/early tmrw, as low end MVFR to potentially IFR based CIGS prevail. They should gradually disperse as pops complete their diminishing from the forecast area thru the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-081- 085. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday morning for ILZ075>078-080>083. MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100. IN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon through Monday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ007>009- 011-012.