textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A potent disturbance will impact the area Saturday with the precipitation beginning as snow or a rain/snow mix in the morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible, particularly across areas near Interstate 64 Saturday. Isolated travel impacts are possible with brief periods of heavy snow and the possibility of some mixing of sleet.

- Chilly, below normal temperatures will continue into early next week, with another system bringing additional chances for wintry precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

An upper trough is lifting to the east while zonal flow is positioned across the Plains. A surface high moves through the Quad State today, keeping conditions dry and winds light. Temperatures continue to be chilly with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s today.

Low pressure emerges from the Front Range and tracks across the Central Plains tomorrow. Winds shift to southeasterly tonight ahead of this system and become breezy Saturday morning. Models show precipitation reaching SEMO late tonight. Warm air advection from southerly flow will bring a warm front northward through the area. Models had previously been very aggressive at wet- bulbing temperatures down to around freezing late Friday night through Saturday morning to produce decent snowfall, and hints of this even remain in models like the Canadian and GFS. However, the CAMs have been running warmer and lighter on snowfall, and the 06Z HRRR and RRFS nearly removes accumulating snow from the entire Quad State. The warm sector should be fairly snow-free aside from perhaps pre-dawn hours, but QPF has dropped off substantially in the 6z-12z timeframe with a later system arrival.

Areas along and north of the warm front have potential for brief heavy snowfall and the possibility of some sleet mixing in as the warm air aloft (700-800mb) will produce a bit of a warm nose. Areas receiving heavy snow (and/or some mixing of sleet) will briefly have slick roads and caution is advised. Potential is highest along the I-64 corridor in Southern Illinois, closer to the low pressure center that tracks from around KC to Chicago, with a quick inch of snow possible. Impacts will be greater further to the north in MO/IL/IN. Western Kentucky will struggle to see any measurable snow. A transition to rain is expected by the early afternoon across the entire Quad State, making holiday travel much less obstructed midday through the evening.

A cold front moves through Saturday night, and temperatures drop below freezing, allowing for a transition to flurries or light snow, but late event QPF is trivial so at most this would result in a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. Northerly flow behind this system, and ahead of a high pressure system in the Dakotas, will bring in cold air for early next week with temperatures well below normal.

Two areas of low pressure develop early next week. One moves from the Gulf, through the Deep South, towards the Atlantic Coast, while the other moves across the Central Plains with an upper trough. Models continue to have a fair bit of variation as to the timing, positioning, and potential interaction of these systems. Confidence is fairly high that wintry weather (snow and possibly some freezing rain) would be in play as early week temperatures are well below normal, but PoPs/QPF are somewhat limited as the Plains system may not be very robust and the Gulf moisture is mainly going to be steered along southeast of Quad State. Monday night remains the time period of the highest PoPs and Western Kentucky the area of highest QPF. Temperatures remain below normal the remainder of next week, especially if any snowfall does occur with the early week system. PoPs are included late next week, generally related to moisture flow in the Deep South, but ensembles are very scattered when it comes to that potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the day with light winds as high pressure moves through. High clouds move in during the evening, lowering during the night but remaining VFR. Some light snow/rain is possible in the west towards the end of the TAF period as winds turn southeasterly.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.