textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest winds will gust 30 to 35 mph this afternoon, which will combine with low relative humidity values of 25 to 35% to support an elevated fire danger risk.

- A major warm up begins today and continues into the weekend with highs trending into the 50s and 60s. There is a 60-70% chance portions of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri reach 70 degrees on Saturday. A slight cool down follows early next week.

- Intervals of scattered light rain showers are expected late Wednesday into Thursday with a 40-60% chance peaking during the morning hours. Rainfall amounts continue to trend lower. Additional chances arrive by Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Sfc high pressure is now located to the southeast along the Gulf coast with southwesterly winds advecting in more seasonable temperatures. The pressure gradient on the backside sandwiched between the high and troughing over the central Plains will support wind gusts between 30 to 35 mph this afternoon. The CONSShort continues to tick a few kts higher with the HRRR even supporting a stray gust to 40 mph. The EPS keeps this at a 20% chance, but BUFKIT soundings support a slightly higher probability over a larger area. Fire danger and wildfire growth remains elevated today with relative humidity values between 25 to 35%. However, increasing thick high-level clouds should keep temperatures cool enough to prevent better mixing with highs ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

More mild conditions persist into the latter half of the week with highs trending into the lower 60s by Friday with lows in the 30s and 40s. Saturday is on track to be the warmest day with a 60-70% chance portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky reach 70 degrees. With 850 mb temps around 8 to 10C combined with a extremely dry column, would not be surprised to see temperatures overachieve a bit above what is currently progged by the NBM.

With that said, the first of two systems arrives late Wednesday into Thursday when intervals of scattered rain showers will be possible. The models continue to trend weaker and drier with QPF as the better forcing is focused southeast of the FA with the right entrance region of a 130 kt jet max at 250 mb. There is now only a 20-40% chance of exceeding a half inch mainly in southern portions of the Kentucky pennyrile. For most of the FA, rainfall amounts now range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches on average with locally higher amounts. There remains a persistent signal for a boundary to sag south late Sunday into Monday that will bring additional waves of rainfall. Unlike the first system, there is a 50-70% chance for total rainfall amounts to be over half an inch through Tuesday. High temperatures remain near to slightly above normal in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

High-level clouds will thicken tonight with VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals. Southwest winds will gust to around 30 kts this afternoon before gradually diminishing tonight. LLWS between 45-55 kts ramps up after 00z, but is expected to diminish early Wednesday morning when winds in the entire column turn more light.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.