textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers and isolated rumbles of thunder (10-15% chance) are expected today with a 60-80% chance of seeing a half inch of rainfall.

- Wind gusts between 30-40 mph are expected today with a 20-30% chance of briefly exceeding advisory criteria along I-64.

- After a brief cold blast Friday, another warm up over the weekend will yield a 50-60% chance of reaching 60 degrees by Tuesday. The probability is even higher on Christmas Day.

- There is a 20-40% chance of daily sporadic light rain showers next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A shortwave trough is now digging across the central Plains with sfc low pressure around 982 mb moving over northern Minnesota. In the wake of a cold front later today, a tight pressure gradient with southerly flow will support wind gusts between 30-40 mph. The ENS probability of exceeding advisory criteria of 40 mph is 20-30% along I-64 while the deterministic blended forecast is more aggressive in briefly reaching criteria locally. The ECMWF EFI values of 0.7-0.8 support anomalous winds for this time of year. For these reasons, leaned closer to the NBM 90th percentile as the momentum transfer in BUFKIT is quite robust. Given the short duration when the cold front sweeps through, will hold off on issuing any headlines as most wind gusts should remain just below criteria.

Increasing forcing for ascent this morning will cause numerous showers to develop across the FA, with a 80-100% probability of rain occurring by the afternoon. Thunder is now barley mentioned by the NBM with only a 10-15% probability, as the 0z HREF remains below 100 J/kg of MUCAPE. Severe weather continues to remain unlikely as it is now questionable if there will be enough instability to support even embedded rumbles of thunder as a elevated squall line moves east. With the risk of convection now even lower, QPF amounts have trended lower with the deterministic forecast ranging from 0.20-0.60 inches. The probability of picking up a half inch is 60-80% while only 10- 30% for one inch.

Much colder air ushers in tonight into Friday behind the front with temperatures briefly dipping back below normal before quickly rebounding over the weekend. The warming trend continues into the holiday week with 850mb temps nearing 10C as heights rise aloft. In fact, there is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 60 degrees by next Tuesday and even higher probabilities by Thursday. A series of subtle impulses that round the ridge aloft bring a 20-40% chance of daily sporadic light rain showers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 441 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Low MVFR cigs has been slow to move in this morning, but will spread across all terminals by mid morning as a cold front begins to approach from the west. Gradient south winds will rapidly increase to 15-20 kts with gusts peaking around 30-35 kts. IFR cigs and vsbys are then expected this afternoon when a line of rain showers will sweep across the region. The probability remains too low to include thunder mention, but a brief rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Low cigs eventually scatter out this evening behind the front with dry conditions. Winds shift west between 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.