textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers (40 to 90% chances) will spread across west Kentucky this morning, then across southwest Indiana, southern Illinois and portions of southeast Missouri east of a Perryville to Marble Hill to Dexter line through the afternoon. Precipitation chances will continue through the evening in these areas.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will be confined to west Kentucky, southwest Indiana and southeast Illinois this afternoon and tonight. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible, mainly in west Kentucky.

- Northeast winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph this afternoon into early evening.

- Precipitation will slowly taper off from west to east from late this evening through Sunday morning.

- After much cooler conditions today, well above normal temperatures will return Sunday through most of next week.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday night into Wednesday, lingering through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The track of Isaias remains well east of our region, and the main effect of this track for our area is good chances of showers and some thunderstorms, and an increase in winds this afternoon and evening. The model blend produces 40-90% chances today into tonight across all but our far western counties in southeast Missouri, and has backed off a little more on our potential wind gusts this afternoon and evening to 25 to around 30 mph. Rainfall totals range from around a quarter inch or less across most of southern Illinois and extreme south Missouri, to a half inch or less in southwest Indiana, to around an inch in west Kentucky and extreme southeast Illinois. Precipitation will gradually end from west to east late this evening through Sunday morning, with mostly sunny to sunny skies across our entire region by Sunday afternoon.

The return of sunshine Sunday will also bring the return of well above normal temperatures, especially across the western two-thirds of the PAH forecast area. Winds will shift back to the south late Sunday into Sunday night, and high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach near record to record readings the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Models show an unsettled pattern setting up for mid to late week, with a frontal boundary sinking south into our region Tuesday night into Wednesday, lingering in the vicinity, followed by a late week cold front. Timing and location are still in question, but this will bring an end to the record heat and give our area on and off chances of showers and some thunderstorms late Tuesday night through Thursday night, potentially lingering into Friday. Chances are overall in the 20-50% range through this period, but as timing gets a little more defined, we could see some periods with better chances. As mentioned, this pattern will bring temperatures down, but readings will still be well above normal with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s Tuesday through Thursday, with lows in the 60s. Normal highs by that time are the lower to middle 70s and lows are the middle to upper 40s. If the late week cold front timing pans out, more seasonable conditions will arrive Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all TAF sites through 20z. Showers will spread northwest this afternoon, reaching KOWB/KEVV/KPAH from 18z-21z, with cigs lowering to MVFR between 20-23z with periods of MVFR vsbys. TSRA possible at KEVV/KOWB between 22z-03z, then after 03z cigs will lower to IFR with VCSH. Cigs at KPAH will lower to low MVFR/IFR after 00z, and at KCGI/KMVN around 03z-06z. Northeast winds will gradually increase to 10-15kt with gusts at 18-25kt late this afternoon and evening, then speeds will decrease to 6-12kts after 03z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.