textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this morning, bringing another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. A low risk for localized flooding issues shifts more southeast into mainly western Kentucky with torrential downpours, but is not expected to be widespread enough to support a flood watch expansion.

- A brief lull in the rain occurs Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance southeast portions of the Quad State exceed 3 inches of additional rainfall by next Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal today through Thursday in the low to mid 70s, followed by a warming trend this weekend with temperatures returning to the 80s. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs warming into the mid 80s by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A cold front is now beginning to push southeast across the Quad State this morning. The increase in surface convergence combined with forcing associated with a mid-level vort max will continue to cause an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the 0z CAMs focus the potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall more south across western Kentucky that is currently not under a Flood Watch. Given that any flash flooding issues are likely to remain fairly localized at most with rainfall rates between 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour, have decided to not expand the watch. 1 hour FFG is also quite high in the 1.75-3.00 inch range with storms that will be fairly progressive. Given WSR-88D trends, the HRRR/ARW seem reasonable as convection will continue to lift northeast through this morning.

As the cold front pushes southeast of the Kentucky Pennyrile this afternoon, showers and storms will begin to taper off for most of the FA by this evening. High temperatures will also be unseasonably cool ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast. Highs in the 70s are then progged through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a 1030 mb sfc high pressure will advect in much drier air for Thursday with a 30-40% chance of a returning thundershower confined to mainly the southern most counties. The break in the active weather pattern will be short lived as a warm front lifts north Friday morning into Friday afternoon with a 80-90% chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. The potential for severe weather does not look concerning as instability will be limited with poor lapse rates.

Split flow aloft will keep the weather pattern unsettled for the holiday weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Southerly return flow will continue to advect in moisture each day with the LREF supporting a 50-70% chance of exceeding 3 inches of additional rainfall through next Tuesday across the southeast half of the FA. Temperatures do trend warmer back into the 80s as a closed low enters the western CONUS on Tuesday and helps to amplify a ridge over the southeast CONUS. Highs eventually return to the mid 80s by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A cold front will continue to move southeast this morning with widespread showers. Embedded thunder likely remains south of all the terminals, but cant rule out a stray rumble in the vicinity of KOWB. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely into this afternoon. Rain diminishes by this evening, but MVFR to high end IFR cigs persist across most terminals into Thursday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.