textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Repeat daily storms has lead to a Flood Watch for Thursday afternoon-Saturday night. 1 to 2 inches cumulative rainfall is forecast on average, but locally higher amounts 2-3x that are possible if and where storms repeat over the same areas.

- Best strong to severe storm chance is late Thursday into Thursday night.

- Smaller non-zero severe weather chances exist again Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

An upper low's meandering presence today will offer enough convergence/uplift to produce scattered showers/storms. With little to no shear aloft, it'll be primarily warm/moist/instability driven during the heating hours especially, with localized heavy rain from slow to non moving storms the main hazard. Lightning and collapsing storms producing gusty winds are also potential hazards.

The wave drifts east late tonight and tmrw, as we go into a synoptic warm-sector like shift in the surface environment. This will drive dew points more broadly into the mid 70s, offering plenty of moisture for the approaching/incoming perturbations that begin streaming in later in the day tmrw and esp tmrw night to begin to produce a period of more active showers/storms across the area. With bulk shear increasing into the 25-35 kts range, this will be enough to add severe (slight risk) potential for any storms from late tmrw into tmrw night, in addition to the continued heavy rain/localized flooding risk. More such wave(s) and similar boundary lay-out may make for another small (marginal risk) svr threat late Friday into Friday night. All these successive rounds of heavy rainfall, esp if they fall over the same areas, will heighten the flooding risk and is why a Flood Watch is now in effect thru Saturday night. More storms/potential heavy rains come heading into the weekend. As a result, the WPC excessive rainfall outlook heightens from MRGNL to SLGT risk during the Flood Watch time frame.

After the weekend, the signal is to go slightly drier thru roughly the first half of next week. Temps may mute somewhat with all the convection, then hover around climo as we work into the drier (relative) pattern early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Scattered storms may offer temporary drops in CIGS/VSBYS, primarily during the heating hours today. Patchy fog is possible as bases scatter out and winds are light late tonight, which may offer some restrictions to vsbys. More convective chances enter the forecast as the day wears on tmrw.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.