textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are possible Wednesday into early Thursday morning. There is a low risk of severe weather Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, mainly over southeast Missouri. Damaging winds is the main concern.

- Hot temperatures and higher humidity levels return Sunday into early next week, with heat index values near 100 degrees. Unlike the previous heat wave, this will be a much drier heat with high temperatures warming well into the 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A 500 mb shortwave trough will round a 597 dm ridge over the SW CONUS on Wednesday as a sfc cold front approaches from the north Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially, an influx of moisture and isentropic lift associated with a warm front tonight may trigger elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over SEMO Wednesday morning. While the HRRR focuses elevated convection in the morning, the NSSL/FV3 show more robust sfc based storms in the afternoon and evening where SPC has a marginal/slight risk of severe weather. DCAPE of 900 to 1200 J/kg combined with 7.0-8.0 C/km low-level lapse rates will pose a risk for damaging winds. The overall thermodynamics are certainly supportive with 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. However, the severe risk is highly conditional, as it is contingent on the morning convection that would result in cloud debris. Humidity levels will also be on the increase with dewpoints rising to near 70 degrees.

As the aformentioned cold front approaches Wednesday night, a scattered broken line of showers and storms tries to develop. Rain pushes east into early Thursday morning across the entire FA. Severe weather chances likely wane overnight with the loss of diurnal heating, but additional development is possible Thursday afternoon over the Kentucky Pennyrile as the front washes out to the north. At any given point, rain chances peak at a 30-50% chance due to the large spread among the CAMs, making it difficult to pinpoint timing. Where storms occur, up to a half to one inch of rainfall will be possible, especially over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky where confidence is higher in seeing some rain.

While brief relief in the humidity arrives on Friday, a 594 dm ridge of high pressure builds over the FA this weekend into early next week that will allow for 850 mb temps to rise above 20C. High temperatures are progged by Sunday and Monday to reach the low to mid 90s; however, dewpoints struggle to reach 70 degrees due to less evaporational transport from agriculture. This translates to heat index values only around 100 degrees. Given that model ensembles show the ridge persisting through much of next week, would not be surprised to see temperatures reach the upper 90s at some point. Unlike the previous heatwave, the lower dewpoints favor this being a much drier heat that will make heat headlines unlikely through at least the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Tranquil weather with VFR conditions prevail this afternoon. High-level clouds thicken tonight as a warm front approaches from the south. There is a PROB30 for elevated showers Wednesday morning at KCGI/KPAH. Isolated thunder is also possible, but the probability is too low to include TAF mention at this time. Light & variable winds tonight increase to 5-6 kts out of the south after sunrise.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.