textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be the pick day of the weekend with dry and less humid conditions expected. - Gusty south winds will bring increasing humidity to the Quad State Sunday, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday; locally heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday and will continue through at least Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Surface high pressure will keep the Quad State dry for one more day.

The main weather-maker for this forecast will be a series of disturbances moving eastward across the Quad State Sunday into Monday. Strong warm advection will begin late tonight over southeast Missouri and crank up over the entire region Sunday. Guidance continues to show an MCS moving across northern Missouri Sunday morning and across central/northern Illinois and Indiana in the afternoon. There is some disparity in the latitude of the MCS's track, but the overall signal has it north of I-64.

The MCS should lay down an east/west oriented outflow boundary to its south, which will likely be a focus for additional convective development in the afternoon and/or evening. The westerly flow aloft over our area should bring a decent capping inversion overhead which will allow at least moderate instability to develop over the Quad State. There may also be some enhanced mid-level westerly flow to the south of the MCS leading to at least moderate shear. All of this indicates the potential for some rotating storms with damaging winds and large hail Sunday afternoon and evening. Low-level shear may be enhanced near the outflow boundary, leading to a more significant tornado threat as well.

Most of the 00Z guidance shows a decent southward and eastward push to the convection, limiting the heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential over the Quad State. However, with precipitable water values around 2" any healthy storm could produce extreme rain rates which could briefly overwhelm drainage systems. Flood Watches have been issued to our immediate north and west where they have had a lot more rain lately. The 00Z GEFS and ECENS have less than a 50% chance of exceeding one inch, so we will abstain from the Flood Watch party for now. If the MCS track trends farther south, this appraisal could change. The convection will come to an end late Sunday night and Monday as a cold front passes.

Weak surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft will keep the area dry Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday and Thursday, too. However, disturbances in the flow aloft could bring some showers or storms into the Quad State at some point Wednesday or Thursday. Warm advection will develop over the region Friday into next Saturday as another healthy disturbance approaches from the central Plains. This will lead to a better chance of showers and storms, especially by next Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The TAFs are VFR with light winds.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.