textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds on Tuesday will cause wind gusts over 30 mph and a elevated fire danger.

- Widespread rain showers are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with a 50-70% chance peaking during the morning hours. Thunder chances have trended lower.

- A major warm up begins on Tuesday and continues into the weekend. There is a 60-80% chance of temperatures reaching 60 degrees by Friday, with 60s even more likely on Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A potent 500 mb trough will exit the eastern CONUS tonight, allowing for a sfc ridge of high pressure to build over the Ohio Valley. While more tranquil conditions are expected, the pressure gradient quickly increases on the backside during the day Tuesday between high pressure along the Gulf coast and low pressure over Ontario. BUFKIT soundings and EPS probabilities support wind gusts over 30 mph with a 20-30% chance of nearing 40 mph over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Went with CONSShort again for both sustained winds and gusts that have trended a few kts higher from the previous forecast package.

Despite the mixing on Tuesday, a low inversion around 900 mb will limit how much dewpoints are able to mix down during the afternoon hours. Combined with thick high-level clouds, this yields RH values around 30-35%, but a few locations locally may reach 25% for a brief period of time. Although confidence remains low to reach criteria to support Red Flag headlines, the ongoing drought conditions will still mean an elevated fire danger risk during the afternoon and early evening hours. The good news is after a cold start to the morning, southerly return flow will cause high temperatures to quickly rebound back into the 50s into the latter half of the week. In fact, the probability of reaching 60 degrees increases to 60-80% by Friday with 60s even more likely on Saturday.

Despite the pattern turning more mild, a 500 mb shortwave trough will bring widespread rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday with a 50-70% chance of rain showers peaking during the morning hours. However, the 12z models have trended a bit lower for QPF with a 40-60% chance of reaching a half inch of rain. Thunder probabilities have also trended lower on the NBM due to the lack of instability. Overall, rainfall does not appear to be significant enough to mitigate the ongoing drought conditions, with the lowest amounts progged over SEMO in locations that need rain the most. A 30-40% chance of rain returns on Sunday when the next system begins to approach; however, moisture appears to be modest at best with zonal flow aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

High clouds thicken overnight and into the day on Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming southerly and increasing tomorrow morning. Sustained winds eventually become 15-20 kts by midday/afternoon with gusts of 25-30 kts expected.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.