textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening, with the best chances in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, then isolated showers and storms are possible late tonight through Saturday evening.

- An increase in temperatures and humidity will produce heat index readings around 100 degrees Saturday, and in the 100 to 108 degree range Sunday through Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return Tuesday night into Wednesday and continue through the end of the week as a cold front slowly sinks south into the region.

- Much cooler temperatures can be expected Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Closely monitoring MCV over southwest Missouri and associated convective initiation there and south in Arkansas. Model soundings and convective behavior suggest it wouldn't take a great deal of lift to initiate thunder as this system slowly moves to the east early this evening. Ambient shear is quite weak but could be locally enhanced modestly by the MCV structure with available MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg. Best chance for anything would be over southeast Missouri from about 8 to 11 pm.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Weak disturbances moving along a broad upper level trof over our region will continue 20-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms into early this evening, with activity focused primarily across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Late tonight should be mostly dry, then any additional convection will be pretty isolated Saturday into Saturday evening. Due to the isolated/scattered nature of the the showers and storms, rainfall amounts will range from zero to a half inch, with localized higher amounts possible.

The heat and humidity will be ramping up a little bit for the next several days as broad upper level ridging over the southwestern U.S. expands farther east, and due to persistent south to southwest flow at the surface. On Saturday, high temperatures will reach around 90 degrees with afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees. Conditions will be dry with lots of sunshine Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the 90 to around 95 degree range, and heat indices from 100 to 108 degrees. It is possible we could need a heat advisory by late in the weekend into early next week.

By mid week, the upper ridge will be weakening, and models show a frontal boundary setting up north of the PAH forecast area, sinking slowly south into our region through late week. Chances of showers and storms will gradually spread from northeast to southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precipitation chances then hover at 40-60% from Wednesday through Friday morning. Some decent rainfall will be possible due to the very slow progression of the cold front, with current forecast amounts of at least an inch. Of course, this is pretty far out in the forecast, and much fine tuning will be needed.

With the cold front and rain/clouds, temperatures by Thursday and Friday will drop off to several degrees below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Convection may be a factor from about 02 to 06z over SEMO and possibly slightly further east. A system moving in from SWMO may help initiate new thunderstorms early this evening that will track very slowly eastward. Coverage will be scattered but if a storm sets up over a terminal impacts may last for 45-90 minutes due to slow storm motion. Otherwise light winds and prevailing VFR conditions are forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.