textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A dangerous late season heat wave with high temperatures near or at record levels will begin today and continue through most of the week.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect this afternoon through Wednesday evening for the entire area. The Heat Advisory may need to be extended to Thursday or Friday as well.

- Cooler and less humid conditions will arrive Sunday and Monday, along with a 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on both days.

UPDATE

Issued at 531 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The much-advertised late season heat wave begins today, as very strong H5 ridging becomes centered over the area. The latest ensemble guidance continues to show H5 heights around 600 dm and 850mb temperatures peaking around 20-22C each afternoon through at least Thursday. Both values are at the climatological maximum for the time of year. This will yield maximum temperatures in the middle to upper 90s (possibly isolated low 100s) and minimum temperatures in the lower to middle 70s during this time. Both the forecast high and low temperatures will approach or break record hot/warm values this week. See the Climate section below for more details. Humidity values will be greatest today and Wednesday, with dew point temperatures reaching the lower 70s. This will yield widespread heat index values around 105 degrees today and Wednesday. The current Heat Advisory runs through 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

On Thursday and Friday, dew point temperatures will begin to draw downward into the middle to upper 60s due to moisture being extracted from the soil. Air temperatures will still be in the upper 90s for most locations, but there is more uncertainty regarding if the heat index values will breach the triple digits. However, given the late season nature of the heat and impacts to outdoor activities, an extension of the Heat Advisory through the end of the work week is possible.

The H5 ridge will begin to break down this weekend, but high temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 90s on Saturday. However, there is better model agreement that some noticeable relief from the heat will arrive beginning Sunday into early next week as frontal boundary attempts to move south through the area. This will yield high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and lower to middle 80s on Monday. Additionally, there may be enough moisture and forcing from the cold front to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Light south winds will this morning around 3-5 kts will increase and veer to the SW around 7-12 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible through this afternoon. Tonight winds will relax and back to the south again around 3-5 kts. FEW-SCT high-based CU will develop late this morning through the afternoon, with bases around 7-12kft. Tonight, lingering mid- level cloud decks will linger at MVN, EVV, and OWB.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Record high temperatures for Tuesday, Sep 15: CGI: 96 (2025) MDH: 106 (1939) EVV: 99 (1939) PAH: 102 (1939) POF: 101 (1939)

Record high temperatures for Wednesday, Sep 16: CGI: 99 (2019) MDH: 101 (1927) EVV: 99 (1898) PAH: 97 (2019) POF: 101 (1927)

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-100. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ004-005-007>022. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>003-006.