textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-80%) are forecast through the weekend, peaking Thursday night through Saturday. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to an increased flash flooding threat Thursday evening through Saturday.

- While we can't rule out a strong storm today, severe chances are quite low (less than 5%). Probabilities for severe storms have increased for Thursday, now up to 15%, focused anytime from late afternoon through the overnight. The pattern may favor additional chances (5-15%) for severe storms on Friday and possibly Saturday.

- High temperatures remain slightly below normal in the mid to upper 80s today. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) return Thursday and possibly Friday which may produce heat index values above 100. Temperatures will cool down again for the weekend, into the mid to upper 80s. It appears increasingly likely we will exceed 90 again by Tuesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The upper level trough that has resided over our area for days will linger for one more day before pushing east of our area on Thursday. Thus today should be similar to the past couple of days with scattered showers and storms. Very limited flow to work with though so severe threat will remain quite low, just your typical summer time storms with gusty winds and very heavy downpours. The slow moving nature of the storms may lead to some localized flooding instances again.

Right on the heels of the upper trough departing will be a series of disturbances sweeping across from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to increased flow aloft, particularly 850-700mb, which will yield deep layer shear pushing 25-35 kts by late Thursday afternoon through Friday. Bit less confidence on Saturday, but at least some enhancement of the flow (20-25 kts) may remain in place. At the same time, southwest flow at the surface will increase ushering in a warmer airmass as temperatures push the low 90s again coupled with mid 70s dewpoints on Thursday. This will lead to heat index values ranging from 98 to 103 and push MLCAPE values over 2500j/kg. While convective evolution varies amongst model guidance, the environment in place will support an increased threat for organized storms as early as late Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight. The new day 2 outlook from SPC has increased to a slight risk across the northern half of the region which certainly seems justified. Damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern, with DCAPE values pushing over 1200j/kg on soundings. Additional rounds of severe storms are certainly possible Friday and maybe lingering into Saturday, with ML probabilities continuing to suggest 5-15% severe probs for those days.

Guidance is trending wetter for late week, with repeated rounds of heavy rain leading to an increasing flash flooding threat. Won't be surprised if we end up needing another Flood Watch issued for the Thursday evening through Saturday period. Precipitable water values will consistently be at or above 2" during this period. While the LREF grand ensemble maintains fairly low probabilities (15-30%) for receiving over 2" through Sunday morning, several of the CAMs and even the GFS are depicting swaths of 2-4" and perhaps localized higher. WPC has us outlooked in a slight risk ERO for Thursday through Saturday.

A strong upper level ridge will build across the Midwest/Plains early to mid next week, which will finally help dry us out with several completely dry days expected. While there is an increased chance for reaching 90 again by next Tuesday (50-70% via the LREF), the brunt of this heatwave may end up staying centered to our west. So for now, it doesn't look as brutally hot as last week was for our region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Patchy fog could develop overnight at the terminals with visibilities falling into the 2-5SM range. Winds will be light tonight increasing to around 5 knots on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible again on Wednesday with PROB30 mentioned for TSRA.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.