textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the Quad State through the evening. A 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms will return mainly to the Evansville Tri State Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

- After a brief dry period, a 20-60% chance of showers and storms return to the forecast mainly over southern and western portions of the Quad State Thursday afternoon through early Saturday.

- High temperatures through the week will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is within a few degrees of normal. Low temperatures will run above normal in the middle 60s through the work week and then drop down closer to normal over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A tiny surface low, most noticeable in radar imagery, continues to lift north northeast to the east of the Lakes in west Kentucky. This feature will become more diffuse later this afternoon, as a mid-level disturbance and larger, but still weak, surface low lifts northeast from eastern Arkansas through the mid-section of the Quad State late this afternoon and this evening.

Along and east of the low track, mesoanalysis indicates that there will be a substantial amount of surface vertical vorticity present. It won't take much of an updraft to potentially stretch that pre-existing vorticity into a brief, weak tornado. Otherwise, if we can heat up any at all, we could end up with enough instability to support some heavy downpours and maybe a few lightning strikes also to the east of the surface low track. Given the anomalously high precipitable water across the region, a few wet microbursts could cause some isolated damaging winds. We will also have to keep an eye on any more persistent heavy downpours over the southern Pennyrile, as Todd county in particular has received well over an inch of rainfall in the last 12-18 hours. Some isolated flash flooding issues could develop.

Most of the convective activity will dissipate by sunset, but near the surface low it will continue northward through the EVV Tri State area. The activity may briefly come to an end across the entire Quad State toward daybreak, as the low continues northeast. The trailing cold front will come back south through the region Wednesday, and that will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northeast half of the region in the afternoon and early evening.

A brief dry period is expected from late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, but the cold front may hang up over southern portions of west Kentucky and through southeast Missouri. More showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible along and south of the boundary Thursday afternoon and evening. As yet another mid-level disturbance lifts northeast into the region late Thursday night through Friday, the convection may spread farther north and east across the Quad State. Finally by the weekend, surface high pressure should push the boundary and convective threat south and west of the Quad State. Given the weak nature of the disturbances involved, confidence in the timing details is not great, but certainly by Sunday the entire region should be dry. The 12Z guidance indicates that we should remain dry through the first half of next week.

Both high and low temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through the next 7 days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A surface low will lift northeast across the region through the afternoon and evening. Showers will become more isolated this afternoon, but some TSRA will be possible at KCGI and KPAH late this afternoon into the early evening, and then later into the evening at KEVV and KOWB. Ceilings will continue to be highly variable through the afternoon and evening. MVFR seems like a good middle ground of the possibilities. Ceilings will eventually drop toward IFR levels overnight into the morning before improving by midday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.