textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled conditions will continue through Saturday, with chances of showers and storms today from 20% north to 60% south, and tonight from 20% west of 60% east. Chances Saturday from 30-70% will be mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- Dry conditions will return Saturday night through early Tuesday, then chances of showers and storms will slowly increase from north to south from late Tuesday through Thursday.

- After a brief return of near seasonal temperatures today in the 80s, above normal temperatures return for the weekend through the middle of next week, with highs Sunday through Wednesday mostly in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the upper 60s around 70 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 741 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A frontal boundary will weaken as it meanders just south of the PAH forecast area today into tonight. Models also show an upper level trof moving over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys tonight into Saturday. Unsettled conditions will continue with 20- 60% chances of showers and a few thunderstorms across the region today, highest chances south, and through tonight, highest chances east. On Saturday, 30-70% chances of showers and storms will continue mainly across west Kentucky, southwest Indiana and southeast Illinois, with the best chances in the afternoon with peak heating.

An upper level high will move over the south central U.S. Sunday, becoming centered over the southeastern U.S. by Tuesday. Our region being under the influence of upper level ridging will give us dry and warmer than normal conditions Sunday through early Tuesday. Models show a surface cold front approaching from the northwest late Tuesday. The front will become oriented west to east to the north of our region by mid week, and models differ on just how far south the cold front will move. The model blend currently produces 20-40% chances of showers and storms across our northern and western counties Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Chances gradually spread south across the entire PAH forecast area, peaking at 50-60% north to 30-40% south on Thursday.

The coolest temperatures of the next seven days will be today with highs in the 80s. Winds become southerly late today into tonight, and combined with the upper level ridge, temperatures will return to above normal readings over the weekend through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures mid to late next week will be dependent on just how far south the cold front moves, along with coverage of clouds and convection.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 741 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

TAF sites with IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys should improve to VFR by 16z. VFR conditions will then be predominant through the TAF period. Winds will variable around 5 kts to calm.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.