textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will rise 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. More seasonable conditions quickly make a return on Friday with temperatures trending slightly below normal next weekend.

- Rain showers begin to build in from the west on Thursday, peaking at a 60-70% chance across the entire region Friday morning into Friday afternoon when a rumble of thunder will be possible.

- Daily rain chances linger through next weekend with a 50-60% chance of total rainfall exceeding 1 inch by Sunday evening. A steady rain over a long duration should limit any flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A broad upper level trough over the Ohio Valley and high pressure at the sfc will begin to build east by Wednesday, allowing for a significant warm up. Rising heights aloft with 850 mb temps of 18-19C will translate to temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging from upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Meanwhile, temperatures may also overachieve a bit today and potentially Tuesday in the low to mid 80s as model guidance continues to struggle with mixing in the boundary layer. With dewpoints mixing down well into the 40s each afternoon, min relative humidity values will peak between 20-30%; however, light winds should mitigate fire danger concerns.

The unseasonably warm conditions will not last for long as a 500 mb vort max and closed low ejects northeast out of the southern Plains on Wednesday, eventually transitioning into an elongated wave by the end of the week. The modest increase in lift combined with a cold front that will approach from the west Thursday night into Friday will bring rain shower chances. The greatest risk on the new NBM now peaks at a 60-70% chance Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Instability looks to be pretty meager, supporting only a few rumbles of rumble at most. Rain chances then linger over the weekend as a shortwave associated with the northern stream quickly moves southeast towards the Great Lakes region.

Model ensembles by Sunday evening support a 50-60% chance of exceeding 1 inch while only a 20-30% chance of exceeding 2 inches. Given a steady rain that will occur in intervals over a long duration, the potential for flooding will be limited. The GFS has been more aggressive with QPF compared to the drier ECMWF, skewing the deterministic NBM forecast too high with rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches in some spots. Would expect the rainfall to continue to trend lower in the coming days as the setup is not favorable for a heavy rainfall event. The increase in cloud cover behind the aforementioned cold front will also translate to much cooler temperatures over the weekend with highs progged to only reach the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals this afternoon with abundant sunshine. Winds turn calm tonight as high pressure remains in control. Some patchy shallow fog cannot be ruled out early Tuesday morning, but the probability is only 10-20% at any given location.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.