textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures peak this weekend near 80F, with best such chances Saturday in SEMO at 60-80%.

- Best rain chances occur tonight, with a 30-40% chance of getting around 1/2" QPF across the I-64 corridor; and again Sunday, with 1/4" or less amounts generally expected region- wide (only a 10-20% chance of QPF exceeding 1/4").

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Surface high pressure anchors to the east today as a cold front takes shape to our north and west. This will increase the pgf and result in some return flow southerlies 10-15 mph, perhaps pushing some gusts up to around 20 or into the lower 20s mph, esp in SEMO. Highs respond by pushing into the mid 70s.

The aforementioned front encounters dew points that have primed up into the lower 50s by this evening, but the primary energy driving its movement is displaced well to our east, so only general risk thunder is anticipated here as both the frontal boundary and its associated band of showers more or less decays upon its southward advance into our neck of the woods. Nevertheless, there is a 30-40% chance it holds together enough to produce upwards to about a half inch of rainfall along and north of the I-64 corridor in southeast IL/southwest IN.

Saturday offers a nice recovery day between that system's departure and the next system's evolution that impacts us mainly on Sunday with the next/following chance of rain. In fact, Saturday looks to be the best chance of hitting 80F over a warm weekend, with the DESI suggesting a 60-80% chance of realizing 80F temperatures in SEMO, tapering to about a 30-40% chance of the same in our coolest northeastern portions of the CWA (Evansville Tri-State), where it'll still run up into the mid- upper 70s.

Run-to-run consistency trending is for lower pops and lower qpf for the Sunday rain chance...now looking at best pops in the chance to low likely range across SEMO, with slight to low chance cats pretty much everywhere else. QPF is likely going to be 1/4" or less with this late weekend system passage, with only a 10-20% chance of rainfall exceeding 1/4".

Expect a dip back to seasonal coolness with highs near 70F and lows in the 40s Monday. Temperatures rebound thereafter, warming thru the 70s in the mid week and pushing the 80s again by week's end. The 8-14 day outlook has above normal temps, so by the end of next week, we could be moving toward a more summer-like temperature regime.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Return flow southerlies will kick up to around 20 kts at times this afternoon as a weak front drops south and high pressure anchors to the east. Showers associated with the front may near enough for low probs mention by evening, but confidence is only high enough to mention at KMVN after 03Z and even then kept a Visual Flight Rules forecast continuing for all terminals.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.