textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Record warmth is likely today with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. It will also be quite breezy with southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.

- A strong cold front moves into the region tonight into Friday morning, accompanied by a 60-80% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Can't rule out a strong storm up near the I-64 corridor, but the primary severe chances look to remain north of our region.

- Temperatures will be roughly 30 to 35 degrees cooler on Friday with readings only in the 50s during the afternoon. There is roughly a 40-60% chance of low temperatures reaching 32 degrees Saturday morning across northern portions of our area.

- After the brief cool-down Friday and Saturday, another warming trend commences early next week. Most of our area has at least a 50% chance at highs reaching 80 degrees beginning Monday and continuing through next Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Upper level ridging across the south central U.S. will briefly build into our area today. There is a weak disturbance passing by on the northeast periphery of this ridge providing some scattered convection across central Illinois currently. Most of this activity will slide east-southeast into Indiana and remain north of our cwa. However, parts of the Wabash Valley and Evansville Tri-state may get clipped by some of this overnight before it moves east by sunrise.

Record high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s remain on track for this afternoon. Even a good chance at a few 90 degree readings in the Ozark Foothills again. A healthy southwest wind will develop as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front sinking south across the Midwest today. Soundings indicate good mixing with surface gusts up to 30 to 35 mph possible this afternoon.

Convection will develop along the frontal boundary to our north later this afternoon and evening, and will likely not reach our cwa until midnight at the earliest. By that time, instability will be significantly less, and guidance is really struggling to keep much instability overnight immediately ahead of the boundary. So while a strong storm can't be ruled out in our far north initially, the severe chances are very low in our cwa and likely will remain north of us. Several CAMs really struggle to generate much in the way of appreciable QPF as the boundary sinks south through our region overnight into Friday morning. It's quite possible that many areas receive less than a tenth of an inch despite the NBM suggesting a 50- 80% chance of exceeding that. Some localized higher amounts over 0.25" remain possible, but will largely be tied to any thunderstorm. Rain will depart from north to south from late morning through mid- late afternoon on Friday.

North winds will usher in much cooler temperatures on Friday after early morning highs. Temperatures during the late morning into the afternoon will only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most of the region, which is roughly 30 to 35 degrees colder than what they will be today. As surface high pressure descends into the area Friday night into Saturday, the chilly airmass remains in place to start the weekend. Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low to mid 30s, with roughly a 40-60% chance at dipping down to freezing or just below across northern portions of our region (primarily north of Route 13 in southern IL and across southwest IN and far northwest KY and then northern portions of the MO Ozarks). Given the recent warm weather, vegetation is now susceptible so we may end up needing headlines for the potential freeze Saturday morning. There should be about a 5 mph wind or so to largely prevent frost though, at least the way it looks now.

The ridge across the south central U.S. will build back northeast into the Mississippi Valley region early to mid next week. Temperatures will begin to warm up again on Sunday as surface flow returns to southerly. By Monday, there is roughly a 40-60% chance at highs reaching 80 across our cwa again, and those probabilities rise into the 70-80% range by Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances will increase mid to late week as shortwave energy ejects across the Plains into Midwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Southwest winds will increase today, becoming sustained 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts this afternoon. A cold front will sink south into the region overnight into Friday morning, accompanied by scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along with shift northerly winds. For now have left thunder mention out of terminals due to the low probability. Low MVFR cigs will spread south behind the frontal passage overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Record Highs for March 26:

Paducah, KY - 83 in 2020 Evansville, IN - 81 in 2020 Cape Girardeau, MO - 82 in 2007 Poplar Bluff, MO - 83 in 1956 Carbondale, IL - 88 in 1910

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.