textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday, with temperatures slowly moderating closer to normal in the upper 80s.

- Late week (Thursday-Saturday) has the potential to be at least somewhat unsettled. Highest rain chances (40-60%) are currently forecast Thursday night, which is when a low end threat (5%) for a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain close to normal in the upper 80s late week before nudging up to 90/low 90s early next week. Heat index readings may exceed 100 by Sunday, but are more likely early next week (50-60% chance by next Tuesday/Wednesday).

UPDATE

Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The upper trough which plagued our region with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and cool temperatures over the weekend has pushed off to our east, now positioned from New England south across the Appalachians into AL/GA. The southern part of the trough gets cutoff and may slowly churn slightly northwestward Tues-Wed, but any convection associated with it likely remains southeast of our cwa.

Northern stream energy will dive southeast across the Midwest on Thursday, which allows a cold front to sink south closer to our area. Scattered convection is expected to develop and push into portions of our Thursday evening/overnight. 0-6km shear may increase to 25 kts or so along with SBCAPE of at least 2000 j/kg, which may lead to at least a lower end severe threat. If later timing pans out though, convection may be in a weakening state as it pushes southeast into our area.

Additional chances for convection are possible Friday into Saturday with mid level disturbances moving across the Ohio Valley. However, shear looks weaker (less than 20 kts) during this period, so should struggle to get anything organized.

Temperatures trend warmer mid to late week, but should primarily remain below 90 through Saturday. Trends over the past 48 hours have slowed down on the onset of our next heat potential, holding off until Sunday or even early next week before heat index readings may exceed 100 again. LREF does suggest a 50-60% chance at reaching 100+ heat index readings by next Tues/Wed. Current NBM dewpoints are back into the mid 70s Sunday into mid next week, with the 75th percentile suggesting 78-79 readings potentially returning. We may be on the outer periphery of the ridge next week which may allow convection to seep into parts of the area and tamp down the heat potential some. However, for now the best chance at MCS activity is north of us early to mid next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Time/height cross sections indicate the diurnal cu field will clear by mid evening with the loss of its insolar fuel. Numerical guidance suggests T/TD spread nears saturation late tonight, so patchy fog with restricted vsbys is offered; there may be restricted bases early tmrw am as insolation burns/lifts the fog out, albeit briefly, before returning to VFR conditions in entirety with FEW-SCT diurnal bases 4-5K FT AGL by and during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.