textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix will impact the region Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky are now under a Winter Weather Advisory for up to an inch of snow/sleet and a light glaze of ice. The Tuesday morning commute will likely be impacted.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire week with lows each night falling well into the 20s and even upper teens in some locations.

- Dry weather will return for the middle of the week, followed by another chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Uncertainty remains high in the precipitation type.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A 1038 mb sfc high pressure over the Dakotas will build downstream tonight, ushering in even colder and drier air across the FA. Nighttime lows are progged to fall well into the 20s despite an increase in cloud cover. While most of Monday will also remain dry, the main focus is a winter storm system that will bring minor impacts to portions of the FA Monday evening through Tuesday morning as a 500 mb shortwave trough over Nevada/Utah ejects east across the Plains. By Monday evening, a positively tilted trough becomes more neutral and phases with northern stream energy. Robust PVA combined with upper level diverge associated with the left exit region of a 150 kt jet max at 250 mb will cause an influx of moisture, supporting a light mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Unlike the previous system, cold air will already be in place favoring frozen pcpn. The one caveat remains far southeast portions of western Kentucky where pcpn will start off as primarily plain rain, ending as a brief wintry mix. With that said, there still remains some model uncertainty as a 3 hour difference in the northern and southern stream phasing will have major implications on pcpn type and spatial coverage. The 12z GFS and ECMWF have trended colder/wetter, now favoring a brief wintry mix transitioning to all snow along a narrow axis that runs from far southeast Missouri into northeast portions of western Kentucky due to dynamic cooling associated with frontogenesis. If correct, the burst of snow would be short in duration around midnight as saturation does not last long in the DGZ, favoring more rimming with 7:1 to 10:1 SLRs. Meanwhile, the NAM and RGEM are slower with the phasing, favoring more freezing rain and sleet in this region, with an axis of snow focused more north across the I-64 corridor. In between, dry air and subsidence results in very little QPF due to scattered disorganized pcpn, especially across most of SEMO and far southern Illinois. Both scenarios would result in a axis of 1 to 2 inches of snow/sleet, but marginal temperatures would mean significantly less on paved surfaces.

While some forecast questions still need to be worked out, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory Monday night into Tuesday morning for portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky where confidence is the highest for a glaze of ice and up to an inch of snow/sleet. The main concern is the potential for roads to become slick, especially on colder elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses that will impact the Tuesday morning commute. Sidewalks are also likely to become slippery if left untreated. Any pcpn is progged to quickly taper off around daybreak, but brief patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out in a few locations with model soundings still indicating some residual low-level moisture.

The flow aloft turns more zonal through the middle of the week with another sfc high pressure building across the FA, keeping temperatures below normal with lows each night ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s. Another disturbance is progged to approach Thursday night into Friday, but confidence is low in precipitation type as model guidance currently shows a large spread in the track.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR sky conditions are shifting through each of the TAF sites early in the TAF period. Most of the day Monday will see VFR condition with the next chance for impacts coming around or just after 00Z/02 through about 09Z. Those impacts will be result of a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Totals are expected to remain light with up to an inch or two possible. A light glaze of ice is possible, mainly at PAH/OWB, but the probability is fairly for much freezing rain (around 20 percent or so). Outside of some initial gusts to around 15kts, winds are expected to remain below 10kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ090-094. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ091. MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ112-114. IN...None. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ001>006. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ007>011-013>016-018>021.