textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger is forecast this afternoon across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri and a small part of southwest Illinois.

- Light precipitation will spread into the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Light snow accumulations are possible near and north of I-64 early Monday morning. However, travel impacts are not expected. The trend is still for warmer temperatures/less wintry precip.

- Periods of light to moderate rain are forecast Tuesday through the end of next week. Beneficial rainfall amounts are expected, with a 60-80% of 0.50 inch of rain or greater. Ahead of a potentially stormier period Wednesday through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 442 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Despite what the moisture profiles appeared to show earlier this morning areas of dense fog have formed up over parts of SEMO and western Kentucky. Satellite and obs show that the areas of dense fog are not widespread but there are sharp/sudden drops in visibility. Given the potential hazards with that opted to issue an advisory for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Patchy fog is developing over the area, the moisture profiles currently do not appear supportive for widespread dense fog.

A digging, broad, shortwave trough is moving southeast over the area. A west northwesterly jet max at 130-140 kts is spinning up a low over the northwestern Great Lakes. The next result today should be an increase in southwesterly winds peaking over the northwestern quarter of the area. Moisture return will be slow and relative humidity will fall into the 25 to 35% range across much of the area. This will lead to elevated fire danger over about the western half of the area today. Warm temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are anticipated today and Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday a fairly strong cold front is still projected to get shoved through the area. Modest jet-level large scale ascent and WAA gives us some precipitation Sunday through early Monday. The trend continues for amounts to be more modest and air warmer, limiting the apparent potential for winter weather.

A diffuse warm front then sets up with westerly flow aloft. Little ripples in the flow look to aid in sparking showers on and off through Wednesday. By Wednesday night a sharp shortwave trough is progged in both GFS and ECMWF guidance with robust moisture return ahead of the system. The synoptic picture with the jet and available lift, presented mid-level lapse rates, dewpoints in the low 60s, with more moisture to pull from from the western Gulf, and a broad 35-45 kt 850mb jet gives me some concern for severe weather potential emerging. Both ECMWF/GFS members also then swing a stronger trough in from the west just behind the leading shortwave that loads the region back up as well. This looks capable of severe weather threats. The extended period of troughs passing just northwest and reloading 1.4 to 1.5 inch PWATs looks like some flood potential through that Wednesday through Friday period as well. We are about to conclude the driest meteorological winter on record for the region, so it would follow the general apparent tendency of the region to shift from one extreme to the other. Still early though so will watch in coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 458 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Areas of dense fog have developed over parts of SEMO and western Kentucky. This should mix out by about 14z with southwesterly winds building in later this morning and this afternoon amid VFR conditions.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ILZ090>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ109>112- 114. IN...None. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>013- 016-017.