textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected this evening and possibly into the overnight hours. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

- A small (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Thursday afternoon, and other small chances are sprinkled in through the weekend and into next week.

- Temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal through the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Well, today's convection has lingered longer over more of the Quad State than expected, and the complete lack of warming certainly is concerning for the possibility of any significant severe storms this evening or overnight. There is still a strong north or northeasterly push at the surface to the south over southern Tennessee and eastern Arkansas, so the better airmass will not have much time to get back north over the Quad State. Therefore, the CAPE forecasts for this evening are likely overdone. The shear will be there, but if we struggle to get surface-based convection, much of it may not be realized.

The CAMs have not had a clue about today's convection, so it would be dangerous to accept their solutions for tonight. However, they have been consistently hammering on the 6-8 PM period for storms to reach far northwestern portions of the Quad State, with the northern extent over Perry and Jackson Counties in Illinois. Storms would then move east southeast across the region generally south of a Duquoin Illinois to Greenville Kentucky line. Northeast of this line storms cannot be ruled out, but given that that area will be farther from the better surface air mass, severe storms are much less likely. There is some sign of storms developing along I-64 into the overnight hours. Those storms would move east southeast and dissipate by sunrise over the Tri State.

If severe storms develop it would most likely be over Southeast Missouri where air mass recovery would presumably be most likely. The CAPE and shear space advertised by the CAMs would support all modes of severe, but there has been a strong tendency for bow echoes in the models with a more significant damaging wind threat. If a west northwest to east southeast boundary develops on the northeast edge of the better airmass, a greater tornado threat could develop along it. Once again this appears to be most likely over southeast Missouri, possibly into the Purchase Area of west Kentucky.

The timing for tonight could be delayed a few hours which would allow more time for air mass recovery, so it will not be surprising if storms don't reach the area until 9 PM or later and then possibly last til around 2 or 3 AM before exiting west Kentucky depending on how far northeast the better air mass makes it.

The storms tonight should move along at a good clip, but we will have to watch for swaths of torrential rains and possibly flooding impacts. This morning's storms produced a swath of 2-3" over Sikeston Missouri and northeast into Wayne and Bollinger counties. This area will be quite susceptible to flash flooding with any storms tonight.

The convection should be done by daybreak Thursday, but an upper-level trough over the Quad State will keep a small chance of showers and storms going Thursday afternoon. Behind this trough, we will remain under a somewhat busy cyclonic northwest flow aloft. This will bring the possibility of some convection attempting to dive southeast over the Quad State over the weekend and into the first half of next week. The models are not handling individual disturbances very well, which results in the NBM spreading a lot of 15-30% PoPs across portions of the region from Friday night through next Wednesday. At least the northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures at or below normal for late August, which is quite welcome after last week's heat wave.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

SHRA and a few TSRA will continue to stream eastward through KCGI and KPAH for the first 2 hours of the forecast. KPAH is the most likely to see a few lightning strikes.

The next round of convection this evening has been trending slightly farther south, and may not impact KMVN, KEVV, and KOWB. KCGI and KPAH will likely be impacted with strong winds, lightning and IFR or lower conditions. Another round may develop over the northern sites overnight, with similar impacts.

There is also a signal for LLWS overnight at the southern sites. MVFR or IFR ceilings will overspread most sites toward morning and may linger through the end of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.