textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily thunderstorm chances of 15 to 30% are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperature and humidity levels will be near typical late August levels through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Broad troughing is centered to our east and northeast putting the area in a moderate northwesterly flow aloft. A jet max works in on the backside of this trough through Sunday morning keeping it roughly in place. There is a small window for thundershowers across parts of SEMO Saturday afternoon but the chances are low (15%).

By Monday that trough works east far enough to allow the heat and humidity to start to creep back into the area. This opens the potential again for daily mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with fairly low coverage overall (15-30%). The best chance for activity for now looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening when a little sharper shortwave pushes through. If any severe weather threat is to emerge in the next 7 days it looks like this could be the period. If the trough position and shear/instability remain consistent we might be able to start messaging a threat, but for now it appears too low predictability/threat for much concern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions with light winds are anticipated for most of the forecast period. There is a small risk for patchy ground fog early Saturday morning with the best chance at CGI and vicinity.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.