textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing humidity will help lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday; locally heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday and continue before scattered storms re-enter the forecast heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

An MCS develops late tonight and tracks from northern MO across central IL, nosing into our northern counties by midday Sunday. It will encounter a destabilizing atmosphere here, where dew points have risen into the lower 70s, and bulk shear increases to 25-35 kts. With highs forecast in the mid and upper 80s, MUCAPES increase to 2-3K Joules by late afternoon into the early evening. Pops for showers/storms increase markedly then, and as low pressure rides along the convective boundary laid out, some storms along that boundary/with the low track may become severe, with all hazards mode potential. The line of convection dives south across the Ohio Valley tmrw night, and takes the severe risk with it. In addition, NAEFS E-SAT indicates 10-30 year Return Intervals on maxed out lower trop moisture transport of chart topping PW's near 2", so while the flow is such they'll move in and out and any one storm may not do it, a procession of repeat storms over the same area may bring heavy enough successive rains to similarly bring a slight risk of localized flooding.

The models depict another wave that rides along the tail end of the aforementioned boundary and ushers the remaining convective chances on across our south half of the region thru the day Monday. After that, cooler and drier air overtakes the region, and lasts thru the bulk of the remainder of the work week. Scattered storms then make an appearance, returning to the forecast heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail tonight with light variable winds. The pressure gradient increases Sunday morning, with SE to S winds increasing to 10-16 kts by the afternoon with gusts over 20 kts. There is the potential for brief MVFR cigs at KPAH/KCGI before mainly a VFR cu field prevails across all terminals in the afternoon. Isolated convection becomes possible after 19z, but the more widespread risk likely holds off until the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.