textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will feature increasing high clouds through the day along with seasonably warm temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and below normal humidity levels.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday and continue into the weekend, peaking Friday night into Saturday (60-80%). There is a low end threat for a few stronger storms Friday evening in the west or Saturday afternoon in the east (5% or less).

- Daily chances (20-50%) of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms may continue Sunday into the middle of next week along with a gradual warming trend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Patchy clouds are beginning to develop today. Temperatures have reached the lower 80s for most sites, en route to highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70, keeping humidity levels bearable for the time being. Dry weather is expected today as high pressure moves through the Ohio River Valley.

Ridging is present in the western third of the country, with a shortwave ridge to our east. In between, a shortwave trough over the Dakotas today will slowly drift southeastward, crossing the Quad State on Saturday. A fairly strong moisture plume will bring precipitable water values up to 2 inches in SEMO by late Friday afternoon. Showers and storms are possible during the midday to afternoon hours Friday, entering from the west. Better forcing arrives Friday evening as the low pressure center approaches and warm/cold fronts approach the CWA. MLCAPE of 2000J/kg and deep layer shear of 25-35kts in Southeast Missouri maintain a D2 Marginal Risk for that area, while both CAPE and shear values drop off further east.

As the low pressure system drifts from Illinois to Indiana, a dry slot intrudes into the Quad State from the southwest. Depending on the forward (eastward) speed of the low, redevelopment Saturday afternoon can produce some stronger storms, mainly in the Kentucky Pennyrile area. From a rainfall perspective, a slight risk ERO covers mainly Southern Illinois for Friday, but QPF has lowered to a quarter to three-quarters of an inch (NBM 1" probabilities of 20-40% from south to north) so overperforming would be necessary to result in any flooding.

Sunday into early next week, models are in strong agreement on the low pressure system getting cut out of the trough, but differ on how it drifts afterwards. The operational GFS sticks further northeast while the Euro keeps it in the mid-South and Canadian sends it southeastward. Ensembles, however, suggest that the GEFS might be the furthest west in positioning of the trough axis. Daily, primarily diurnally driven, PoPs remain Sunday into early next week due to the proximity of the cutoff low. Eastern portions of the Quad State appear to be most favored for showers/storms. Once the system moves away from areas, very dry mid-level air moves in behind it.

Slightly below normal temperatures today find slight warming (mainly with low temperatures) as moisture increases Friday. A cold frontal passage Saturday night cools the region for Sunday into early next week, with temperatures rising to the 90s midweek as drier conditions move in.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Mid and upper level clouds will be on the increase tonight into tomorrow as a cold front approaches the region. Robust cu development is also expected during the day tomorrow, with initial bases possibly flirting with MVFR levels late morning before becoming VFR. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible from midday into the afternoon, primarily at western terminals. TSRA may develop to our west and move into the region during the evening and early overnight tomorrow. Included PROB30s for western terminals for this possibility.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.