textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will ramp up tonight (15 to 30%) into Thursday (20 to 50%) as a disturbance passes.

- An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be rule out Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms (50 to 80%) are forecast Friday into Saturday. A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible again Friday afternoon and evening.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will arrive Sunday and continue through most of next week. Daily heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are forecast first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

After a couple quiet days, a return of increasingly unsettled conditions then dangerous heat and humidity is expected for next seven days. Isolated showers or thunderstorms (15-30%) are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Greater coverage is expected Thursday afternoon and evening (25-50%) as forcing ramps up.

There may be enough shear and instability to yield an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, with damaging winds being the main threat. A similar severe weather setup is expected to arrive on Friday afternoon into Friday night as a weak shortwave passes, but the added forcing will aide in increasing storm coverage, especially along the stall frontal boundary near or north of I-64. May need to issue a Flood Watch for locations north of I-64 with the next update if the current QPF of 2-4" there holds. Locations further south will see progressive lower amount of precipitation.

The front will retreat to the north again on Sunday as a 596 dm H5 ridge setup up over the area. This will bring our hottest temperatures of the summer (highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s). Dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s will yield daily heat index values of 105-110F Monday into the middle of next week at least. Heat index values this high for so many days will lead to an elevated or substantial risk of heat-related illnesses for those exposed for long duration.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

High pressure will keep conditions VFR through the forecast period. Winds will be generally light from the S to SW around 4-6 kts this afternoon, then become light and variable overnight before picking up again from the SW AOA 5 kts. Some FEW-SCT diurnal CU with cloud bases around 5kft can be expected this afternoon. Tonight, a few widely scattered thunderstorms are possible near and west of the Mississippi River, so have included PROB30 groups at CGI, PAH, and MVN between 06-12z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.