textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

-A 20-30% chance of showers and storms this afternoon, mainly through sunset. There is a small risk of severe weather through sunset, with gusty winds being the main threat.

-An area of showers and storms is expected to move southeast across much of the region late Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially along the Interstate 64 corridor.

-Additional showers and storms are expected (40-80%) Thursday and Thursday night with the best chances in west KY into southeast MO. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be possible in the afternoon and evening, especially in west Kentucky.

-Dry conditions are expected to end the work week, with cooler temperatures and less humidity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A weakening cold front and mid/upper-level disturbance will move into the Quad State this afternoon/early evening. Moisture will be limited along the front with dewpoints only in the mid to upper 50s. The drier air in the lower levels will lead to some gusty winds with any storm that forms. There is a pocket of better instability over SEMO this afternoon with around 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Effective shear is around 35--40kts in that area as well. Any storms would pose some risk of severe weather through sunset. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts.

A very strong storm system will pass through the central US Wednesday through Thursday night. The wind fields are unseasonably strong, with a 30 yr return interval. A wind advisory may be needed for gust close to 45 mph. At a minimum a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed for Wednesday into Wednesday night. The strong southerly winds will help transport moisture northward into the area with dewpoints increasing from the 50s today to the upper 60s and low 70s on Wednesday into Thursday.

Severe storms may move into the northern portion of the CWA late Wednesday evening, which would be the remnants of an east- west oriented line of storms that develop to the north of the CWA. The best chance of severe weather will be north of I-64. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat along with heavy downpours.

The cold front will be slower to pass through, lingering across the area through Thursday afternoon, which may pose yet another risk of severe storms as the storms re-develop during peak heating Thursday. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats from the storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. Isolated to scattered shra and isolated tsra possible through 01z, and included PROB30 through 01z, with best chances of - TSRA at KMVN. Southwest winds at 6-12kts will become light after 00z. South winds will increase after 13z to 7-12kts with gusts of 15-20kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.