textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight risk of severe weather returns late Tuesday into Wednesday when all severe hazards will be in play. Locally heavy rainfall will highlight a marginal risk for flooding.

- A warmup ahead of the mid week storms will see 70s make a widespread return to the forecast Monday-Tuesday. There is a 30-50% chance highs will reach or exceed 80F in parts of the southeast MO Ozarks and southern portions of western Ky.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

Surface high pressure will shift east tonight, allowing return flow southerlies to establish firmly ahead of our next big weather maker developing out West. A strong warm air advection environment develops and precedes its approaching arrival and may start to induce elevated showers/storms by as early as Monday evening. High temperatures return to the 70s Monday and may push 80F in some mainly southern locations Tuesday. The evolving split flow system nears itself enough to introduce a slight risk of severe to our northern-western most reaches by late Tuesday night, but the primary/best chance of pops and risk lines up for Wednesday, when it makes its sweeping Mississippi Valley passage. All modes of severe will be in play.

In addition to the all modes severe outlook, storm total average forecast rainfall amounts of 1-1.5" have been consistently within that range from day-to-day model output. Localized higher amounts for any training storms may heighten the flooding risk, so the existing MRGL risk from WPC may well play given the E-SAT showing some ensemble statistical support for higher end PW's/moisture availability.

The system's passage is completed with pops drawing down Wednesday night and seasonally cooler/drier air settling in to finish out the week...like 50s and 60s for highs with 30s and 40s for lows.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

There should be just enough of a south breeze to keep fog from forming tonight. South winds will increase quickly after sunrise, with gusts 20-25kts through the afternoon. An area of MVFR ceilings in southeast Arkansas will make steady progress to the north tonight and should reach KCGI and KPAH before 12Z. The level is uncertain with possibilities ranging from LIFR to VFR. Limited IFR to KCGI, with MVFR at KPAH. Those ceilings should become or stay MVFR through the day. Farther north, ceilings will arrive around 18Z, and they should be mostly VFR, but a few hours of MVFR at the onset is possible.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.