textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy south winds and lots of sun will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s throughout the Quad State region today. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s and 70s are expected through Tuesday.

- A 20-60% chance of thunderstorms returns to the forecast Monday afternoon, with the best chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

- Pockets of severe weather risk may emerge Monday night through Tuesday. Overall the risk remains fairly modest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Fairly active weather expected for the next several days. Today will be the quietest with hot and humid conditions and a south breeze developing. We should stay dry during the day. Hoisted a targeted Lake Wind Advisory for SEMO/S IL large lakes with us right at criteria there.

Monday will be a little more humid still. There is an emerging trend for a little mid level DCVA embedded in a weak jet ripple southeast of the main shortwave trough passing well to our southwest. Over SEMO and southwest IL deep and low level shear is at least sufficient in the GFS/NAM projections for some risk for severe. Thermodynamics are ok, with MLCAPEs 1500 J/kg or so amid fairly weak mid and low level lapse rates. On balance it looks slightly more favorable for both thunderstorms and as a result severe than 12 to 24 hours ago, but low level convergence/forcing may be too weak for significant convective initiation during the day. Any weaker deep layer shear than advertised would also probably be insufficient for organized updrafts. The shear gets a little better in the evening with a little stronger forcing and rain/thunder chances linger overnight.

The interaction of this initial wave and the broader lift from the right rear quadrant of a jet max over the Great Lakes region is complicated Tuesday morning. Guidance depicts a period of mid- level height rises initially as you would expect behind the wave that crosses into peak heating before height falls move in. After sunset Tuesday GFS/ECMWF all depict fairly widespread showers and storms. Shear remains pretty marginal at that period. Precipitable water values after multiple days of deep moisture return reaches 1.8 to 1.9. This should result in at least a few areas of locally heavy rainfall, but duration and coverage and antecedent conditions still seem to point to a relatively low/non-risk for flooding for now.

Recent trends show another northern Plains shortwave that tries to pull heat and moisture back into the area after the Tuesday morning frontal passage. This is more aggressive in the GFS with the ECMWF keeping it just a little bit south of the area. But the trend definitely seems to be towards a little more heat/humidity and daily rain chances through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Convective outflow winds are likely to impact KEVV and KOWB in the first hour or two of the forecast. There is an increasing chance of TSRA building southeast into KEVV or at least its vicinity in the first hour of the TAF. Otherwise, the forecasts are VFR. South winds will increase with mixing in the morning at all sites, and gusts 15-25kts will be possible through the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 5 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075-081- 085. MO...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 5 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ100. IN...None. KY...None.