textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Variable rain chances return to the forecast tonight through Saturday. The best chances are Thursday and Friday.

- Total rainfall from Thursday through Saturday night could be around 1.5-3" in southern IL and southwest IN, and less than 1.5" elsewhere.

- Heat arrives late this weekend and continues next week. Highs reach well into the 90s with heat indices over 105 Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will shift toward the east today allowing winds to turn toward the south by the afternoon. A cold front will extend from a low across the Great Lakes region and into the central plains and may result in a few showers and storms by the afternoon across the west. Several of the CAMs show activity developing in central Missouri but generally weaken it as it begins to move into the area.

The front then stalls out over the area during the late week period. Aloft, multiple shortwaves are expected to move over the area along the frontal boundary. Chances for showers/storms increase on Thursday with guidance continuing to favor the Thursday night into Friday night with the highest chances. Rain chances continue into Saturday before drier weather finally moves in by Sunday. On Friday models show more than enough CAPE to support convection. Upwards of 40 knots of 0-6km shear during this time could support organized convection and the potential for strong to severe storms if everything comes together right.

Heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding will be something to keep an eye on during this time with multiple rounds of showers and storms late this week. Total QPF is around 2-3 inches across the north and as much as a quarter to half an inch as far south as the TN/AR state lines. Ridging builds by Sunday and continues into next week. This will bring more typical summertime heat with highs rising into the 90s. Dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat indices in the 105-110 degree range early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A predominant VFR forecast through the next 24 hours. Winds will veer toward the south today, generally around 3-5 knots becoming light and variable tonight. Confidence in significant precipitation impacting the terminals is low but there is potential for some SHRA or TSRA activity for MVN/CGI this evening. Mostly high level bases can be expected with few to scattered bases around 5kft this afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.