textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger is forecast Friday afternoon across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri and a small part of southwest Illinois.

- Light precipitation will spread into the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Light snow accumulations are possible near and north of I-64 early Monday morning. However, travel impacts are not expected.

- Periods of light to moderate rain are forecast Tuesday through the end of next week. Beneficial rainfall amounts are expected, with a 60-80% of 0.50 inch of rain or greater.

UPDATE

Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

This morning's light rain has exited the region, and a weak surface cold front has moved south and east of the area. Surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS will filter dry NE flow into the forecast area through this afternoon. Winds will go calm tonight, and patchy fog development is likely in areas that saw appreciable rain this morning, mainly near and south of the Ohio River.

On Friday, winds will increase from the S to SW as another surface low passes across the Upper Midwest. RH values will fall to 20-35%, with the lowest values across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri into far southwest Illinois. Will introduce messaging for elevated fire danger here in the HWO and social media products. Similar conditions are possible in this area on Saturday, so may need to extend the fire danger messaging beyond Friday with later forecast updates. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will soar 10-20 degrees above normal, with high temperatures generally in the middle 60s to lower 70s from north to south.

Sunday night into Monday morning, a cold front will move into the region from the northwest in association with a weak surface low that will move from west to east along the MO/AR and KY/TN border. Light precipitation will develop Sunday afternoon and evening and continue into early Monday morning. A strong north- south baroclinic zone will set up across the area, and temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30s near the I-64 corridor and northern sections of southeast Missouri. Thermal profiles here would support a brief transition from rain to a light/slushy snow early Monday morning (roughly 06-12z). At this time, any accumulation would be a trace to a few tenths of an inch on elevated surfaces. Additionally, warm ground temperatures will prevent accumulation on roads and bridges, so no travel impacts are expected at this time.

After a brief lull in precipitation Monday afternoon, an extended period of unsettled conditions is forecast beginning Monday night through the rest of the next work week at least. The culprit responsible for this pattern shift will be a broadly cyclonic southwest H5 flow pattern combined with periodic surface inflections to initiate periods of rain. At this time, the periods with the greatest coverage of rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rainfall rates will be fairly modest, but will added over time, which will ameliorate the ongoing drought conditions a bit. The latest NBM ensemble guidance gives a 60-80% of the region seeing more than 0.50" by Thursday morning and a 25-50% of 1 inch of rain or more. Temperatures will also rebound as well during this time, climbing from near normal values on Monday- Tuesday to 10-15 degrees above normal on Wednesday- Thursday. Long range guidance hints that even potentially heavier rainfall is possible in the week beyond the end of the seven day forecast window.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 445 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

As a weak wave makes passage, surface high pressure ridges across the flight forecast area and asserts control of our sensible wx thru the bulk of this package. TDD's drop to 3F or less with little sky cover/light-calm winds, so we've retained our inherited restrictions with patchy fog possible late tonight/early tmrw am. Southerlies initiate tmrw but remain relatively light, while FEW diurnal VFR bases are possible north and east during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.