textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will sweep through the region late tonight, bringing a chance of thunderstorms. An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out with hail being the main threat.

- Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures return Saturday, followed by another significant warm up beginning Sunday into next week.

- Patchy frost is possible early Saturday morning.

- An unsettled and warm weather pattern will begin Wednesday and possibly continue through the end of the next work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Record warmth will continue this afternoon ahead of the arrival of a cold front early Friday morning. Ensemble guidance shows temperatures at 850 mb at 18-20C, which is near the 95-99th percentiles for late March. Temperatures have already reached the lower to middle 80s at most locations, with a few hours of warming left to go this afternoon. See the Climate section below for more details.

Tonight, isolated convection and scattered to widespread light showers will develop along and behind a cold front that will dip from north to south across the region early Friday morning into the afternoon. Any convection that develops will be elevated and post-frontal, so the only potential severe hazard would be from hail. SPC has maintained a MRGL risk near the I-64 corridor for this potential. Shower activity will spread across the area during the morning hours and linger into the afternoon for locations along the KY/TN border. Rainfall amounts look light, with only 0.05-0.15" of rainfall forecast.

Cool Canadian high pressure will briefly become centered over the area Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning. The growing season is underway per guidance from our ag weather partners. However, did not issue a Freeze Watch at this time given forecast winds look to be 3-7 kts, which would limit frost formation and may keep temperatures above freezing in many spots. Will mention in the HWO and social media messaging for now. Temperatures Saturday will actually be near or slightly below normal for once despite full sunshine.

Southerly return flow will commence on Sunday as the surface high shifts each of the region. This will allow temperatures to warm well above normal for the first half of next week, by around 10-20 degrees. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the region will be under more of SW baroclinic flow pattern, which would direct one or more disturbances towards the region. The first system looks to impact the region late Tuesday through Wednesday, when chc PoPs are forecast (30-50%). Thunder chances are also mentionable during this time, but it remains unclear if any convection would reach severe levels.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Breezy SW winds (sustained at 10-20 kts with gust up to 20-25kts) and mostly clear clear skies will continue through tonight before a cold front brings widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms early Friday morning into the afternoon. The best window for thunder will be around daybreak Friday, but showers will linger into the late morning or afternoon hours.

Cigs will fall to MVFR (cloud bases of 1500-2500ft) as the precipitation arrives and continue through the rest of the forecast period. Winds will rapidly shift to the N-NW following the frontal passage and remain gusty (sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts) through Friday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Record Highs for March 26:

Paducah, KY - 83 in 2020 Evansville, IN - 81 in 2020 Cape Girardeau, MO - 82 in 2007 Poplar Bluff, MO - 83 in 1956 Carbondale, IL - 88 in 1910

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.