textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures (low to mid 80s) will persist through the holiday weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Tuesday through early Thursday. Unfortunately, amounts will be light and likely won't help much with our worsening drought situation.

- A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night, bringing well below normal temperatures for late in the week. A secondary frontal passage later Friday likely will keep the cooler temperatures going through next weekend with highs in the 70s.

UPDATE

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a dry northeasterly flow across our region today. This will continue on Monday as well, despite the high pushing further east into the Northeast U.S. Meanwhile, shortwave energy currently across the Central Plains will slowly meander southeast towards our region by Tuesday. This will help induce at least widely scattered showers and storms by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of this activity may linger into Wednesday as well.

The polar jet stream buckles sending a robust wave out of Canada mid- week. A strong cold front is forecast to move through our cwa Wednesday night into early Thursday. The main upper level forcing remains well to our north, where an anomalously deep 500mb low develops across the Northern Great Lakes Thursday. It then continues to slowly spin across the Great Lakes/Southern Canada through Saturday. Convergence along the front itself may be enough to squeeze out some light precip though Wednesday evening through early Thursday. A secondary frontal passage may occur on Friday/Friday night, with another wave of light QPF possible.

Unfortunately, rainfall amounts this week look quite light with many areas only seeing around one or two tenths, if that. LREF probabilities have trended down compared to 24 hours ago, with less than a 20% chance of QPF > 0.5" this week. Certainly not ideal and likely won't help much with our worsening drought situation.

Temperatures will continue to average below normal this week, especially behind the mid-week frontal passage. It continues to look like a reinforcing shot of cooler air comes in next weekend, with only a temporary rebound into the low 80s expected on Friday. So likely will have several days with highs only in the low-mid 70s Thursday through next weekend, despite the NBM struggling to latch on. Several nights may dip into the 40s as well. Possibility of a few record lows/cool highs are on the table.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. High clouds will continue to stream across the region, and will be most prevalent at western terminals. Light winds initially will increase to 6-10 kts out of the northeast today and then become light with sunset.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.