textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near-record warmth is expected today and Thursday, with temperatures reaching 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

- There is a 40-70% chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening east of the Mississippi River. Some of these storms could become severe, especially in the Evansville Tri- State and Wabash River Valley.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected Thursday afternoon in the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri.

- Temperatures will tumble this weekend back to near or slightly below normal values through early next week. There is also a 20-40% chance of light rain or a rain/snow mix on Saturday, but little or no snow accumulation is forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty southerly winds early this morning will gradually relax by daybreak, as very deep surface low pressure over the Upper Midwest undergoes cyclolysis. However, robust WAA will persist across the region, driving temperatures to record or near- record values today and Thursday. This includes both record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures.

Thursday continues to be a potentially active weather day, with both concerns for severe thunderstorms and, now, elevated fire weather conditions. The latest SPC outlook has focused on more the Wabash Valley and Evansville Tri-State region for the primary area of concern, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms here. Further south and west, there a marginal risk that extends westward to the Mississippi River and south to the KY/TN border.

Latest model guidance continues to show strong surface cyclogenesis commencing east of the Rocky Mountains today. The surface low will rapidly deepen as it moves ENE into northern IL and southern WI by Friday morning. There is limited chance (20-30%) of some WAA-driven showers Thursday morning east of the Mississippi River, but that will not keep temperatures reaching near record high values in the upper 60s to middle 70s and dew point temperatures nearing 60 degrees east of the Mississippi River. The main severe threat will be Thursday afternoon into the early evening (roughly between 18-24z).

Expecting a north-south oriented line of broken thunderstorms segments and possibly a few low-topped supercells to initiate off as dry line positioned near the Mississippi River along the I-57/US 45 corridor in the early afternoon and race to the east. Storm motion could reach 50-60 mph. Due to limited H5 height falls and marginal mid- level lapse rates, SBCAPE will be limited to around 250-500 J/kg. However, shear parameters remain quite impressive (0-3 km SRH values around 200-400 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50-80 kts), and forecast model hodographs exhibit elongated curvature (especially north of Interstate 64).

Putting it all together, while storm coverage remains a limiting factor, there will be a conditional risk for a few severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, especially north of I-64 and east of I-57 (especially across the Wabash Valley eastward through the Evansville Tri-State).Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the main threats. Cannot rule out small hail as well, but with the limited lapse rates, thinking any hail that does occur will be below severe limits.

In addition to the severe weather risk, concern is growing for elevated fire weather conditions in the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri, where the dry line will pass and sending humidity values falling to 25% of lower along with gusty winds. See the fire weather discussion below for details.

Following the passage of the trailing cold front Thursday night, chilly Canadian high pressure will sink southward into the Upper Midwest. As a result, temperatures will begin to fall back to more typical late February values by this weekend into the first half of next week. In fact, temperatures could even fall about 10 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday. A weak shortwave will pass through the region Saturday, bringing a chance (20-40%) of light rain or even a light rain/snow mix Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, any snow accumulation will be limited to a light dusting at most with no impacts. Dry conditions will follow thereafter through Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

As a frontal boundary moves east of the region, MVFR low stratus will continue to clear the area from NW to SE this morning, with all terminals expected to have VFR bases by early this afternoon and eventually just high cirrus. However, increasing southerly low level moisture flow will bring a return of MVFR cigs after 06z Thursday at CGI and PAH with continued northward movement expected beyond the end of the forecast window. Gusty SW winds will relax to around 6-12 kts this this afternoon and become S around 5-10 kts tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are becoming increasingly likely Thursday afternoon across the Ozark Foothills and eastern Mark Twain NF. A dry line will move through this area this afternoon, sending RH values falling to around 20-25%. However, fuels will still be a bit moist from recent precipitation, and 20ft winds will be only 5-10 mph. This will change Thursday after a full day of drying. RH values are again forecast to fall to around 25% or lower, but 20ft winds will be around 15 mph, which would be near headline criteria. Plan for now is to message elevated fire danger in this area on Thursday and coordinate with fire weather partners later today about the need for future headline issuance.

CLIMATE

Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

PADUCAH: Today's Forecast High: 71 Today's Record High: 71 (2016)

Thursday's Forecast High: 72 Thursday's Record High: 75 (2018)

EVANSVILLE: Today's Forecast High: 72 Today's Record High: 73 (1961)

Thursday's Forecast High: 69 Thursday's Record High: 74 (2018)

CAPE GIRARDEAU: Today's Forecast High: 72 Today's Record High: 73 (1961)

Thursday's Forecast High: 71 Thursday's Record High: 71 (1994)

POPLAR BLUFF: Today's Forecast High: 73 Today's Record High: 76 (1961)

Thursday's Forecast High: 73 Thursday's Record High: 74 (1948)

CARBONDALE: Today's Forecast High: 72 Today's Record High: 73 (1961)

Thursday's Forecast High: 71 Thursday's Record High: 72 (1930)

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.