textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the region today. 40 mph or greater wind gusts are expected, mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere 25 to 35 mph gusts are expected.

- Temperatures through Friday night will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A cold frontal passage Saturday will send temperatures down to near or below normal levels from Sunday through Tuesday.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast throughout the region. A few severe storms will be possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon into this evening. The most widespread rainfall will be ahead of a cold front late Friday night through Saturday, when one to two inches of rain will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A Wind Advisory has been issued for most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and portions of southwest Indiana from 10 AM CDT to 7 PM CDT. Southerly winds will be sustained 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40-45 mph in the Advisory area. Elsewhere, gusts will be 25-35 mph. The 00Z GEFS has a 90+% chance of wind gusts reaching 40 mph in the Advisory area. The 00Z ECENS has a nearly 90% chance of gusts reaching 40 mph over the entire forecast area. Collaboration with surrounding forecast offices favored the GEFS footprint, but the Advisory may need to be expanded eastward later today.

A potent storm system will lift northeast from the central Plains to the Great Lakes by 06Z tonight. A trailing cold front could briefly dip southward along the I-64 corridor around 12Z Friday, but it will quickly lift north of the area by midday Friday.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the early evening mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Instability should be sufficient to support healthy updrafts, while shear will be supportive of supercells with all modes of severe possible. With much of the shear focused in the 0-1km layer, tornadoes are the greatest concern. Farther east instability is very limited and storms should generally weaken as they lift northeast across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana through the evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will be focused near the cold front over the Evansville Tri State Friday morning. The boundary and convection should lift north of the region by midday. Any severe threat Friday will likely be near the front to the north of the area in the afternoon.

High pressure aloft will build over the Quad State Friday afternoon and evening, before another strong storm system moves eastward toward the Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the associated cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Friday night, and then move southeast across the rest of the Quad State Saturday. 1-2" of rainfall will be possible with the band.

Temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal through Friday night. Widespread precipitation and an eventual cold frontal passage will hold temperatures down to 5-10 degrees above normal on Saturday, then readings will plummet to normal levels or below from Saturday night through Tuesday night. NBM low temperatures remain several degrees above the freezing mark. However, the 00Z GEFS has a 20-40% chance of reaching the freezing mark early Wednesday over the Evansville Tri State area. The 00Z ECENS has only a 10% chance.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight with a east to southeast wind that will become stronger and more south to southwesterly. Thursday will be windy with gusts 28-34kts through the late morning and afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening arriving from the west and moving east although the trend seems to be for coverage to be slightly less as we get closer to the event.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093. MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-109>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085. KY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>004.