textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Our coolest airmass of the Fall season so far is set to invade our region Friday through the weekend. Highs in the 50s are likely (coolest on Saturday) along with lows falling into the low to mid 30s. Many areas may witness their first freeze of the season Saturday night.

- Dry conditions are expected over the next 7 days. After the chilly weekend, we return to seasonable conditions with highs in the 60s early to mid next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 430 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

While cooler air has invaded our region today behind last night's cold frontal passage, an even stronger push of colder air will arrive over the coming weekend. Skies should begin to clear out later this afternoon through the evening at least across the western half of our area. Along with winds becoming light, this may set the stage for some fog development early Thursday morning, particularly given the heavier rains we just received. While fog is most likely from the MO bootheel region into far west KY and perhaps extreme southern IL, the signal is even stronger just to our south down in portions of AR/TN.

A positively tilted trough will swing through Thursday night into Friday morning pushing another cold front across our region. Basically all guidance shows a dry passage at this point, but wouldn't be surprised if we squeeze out a few sprinkles or very light showers. Northwest winds usher in the coolest airmass of the Fall season so far with highs likely stuck in the 50s along and north of the Ohio River and back into much of southeast MO on Friday. Saturday looks even chillier with widespread mid 50s across the region. This likely will be the coldest daytime high temperature in Paducah since late March. There is also a concern of many areas observing their first freeze of the season Saturday night. NBM is certainly more aggressive with the chances though, highlighting a 50- 80% chance at lows falling to 32 for most of the region. Meanwhile the LREF grand ensemble probability of hitting 32 is less than 20%.

Dry conditions are likely to continue through at least mid to late next week. Southerly flow returns by Monday allowing highs to push back into the 60s. While there may be another frontal passage sometime mid to late next week, the precipitation prospects appear bleak with ensembles suggesting less than a tenth of an inch at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 430 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The forecast is on track as bases begin to scatter west to east. Where this occurs and holds overnight, as winds diminish, may lead to patchy fog; have retained inherited mention and will monitor evening sky/wind trends toward its fruition (or not) after 06Z. Time/height cross sections indicate FEW-SCT low VFR bases potential tmrw during the planning phase hours of the forecast in W to SW flow.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.