textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and storms are expected (80+% chance) Sunday afternoon through around midnight. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the main threat.

- Wind advisory will go into effect for the area Sunday morning through Monday morning for very strong south winds. Wind gusts will likely exceed 40 mph outside of thunderstorm activity.

- Rain will transition to snow Sunday night into Monday morning as much colder air filters into the area. There is roughly a 20-50% chance of seeing at least a half inch of snow for much of the area, mainly on grassy/elevated areas.

- Cold temperatures are expected to linger for Monday and Tuesday with highs down to the low to mid 30s Monday and lows in the teens Monday night, with single digit wind chills early Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

An area of low pressure is quickly lifting north of the Northeast US this afternoon with zonal flow in place across the Quad State. A developing area of low pressure will emerge across the plains this afternoon and evening veering winds toward the south. Temperatures are warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s and expected to top out into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Substantial height falls associated with a deep trough moving across the plains leads to a low pressure system deepening as it moves through IA and into the Great Lakes Sunday night. This low will drag a strong cold front through the region. Southerly winds increase ahead of the front with gusts as high as 40-45 mph being fairly common across the Quad State. Isolated higher gusts will be possible owing to an impressive 60-70 knot low level jet. A wind advisory will go into effect 15z Sunday across the entire Quad State and remain in effect until Monday morning. Moisture return will bring dewpoints in the mid to upper 50's just ahead of the front. Dewpoints may approach 60 across portions of southeast Missouri. Mid level lapse rates will become rather steep as the front approaches with values near 7 C/Km leading to a couple hundred joules of MLCAPE.

Shear parameters continue to look excellent with effective shear values in the 50-60 knot range, and 0-1km shear increasing towards 40+ knots. Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Missouri by the early to mid afternoon with an eastward progression. Confidence on timing is high with the frontal passage and associated convection. While guidance continues to limit development ahead of the front, we still need to watch for this as the extremely high shear but low CAPE environment would still warrant a severe weather risk with any of this activity. The main area of interest will be the convection along the strongly forced cold front. Wind damage is the main hazard associated with the squall line as it moves across the Quad State. Tornado potential certainly has not decreased with todays data. Several tornadoes are possible with the line or semi-broken line.

Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the front. Strong cold air advection will bring 850mb temperatures into the negative teens by Monday. This may allow for precipitation to change from rain to snow for a short period of time but warm ground temperatures will limit snow accumulations. Can't completely rule out light amounts in grassy surfaces. Winds behind the front will remain breezy with gusts of 30-40mph continuing into Monday. Highs on Monday will top out in the 30's, with lows Monday night falling into the teens. Breezy winds will produce wind chills in the single digits Tuesday morning. An upper disturbance is set to bring slight chance to chance PoPs across the northern half of the region Tuesday night but QPF amounts will be limited. Temperatures rebound by midweek as winds return to the south. Highs warm back into the upper 60s to 70s by Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

LLWS develops overnight as surface winds drop to near or below 10kts. Southerly winds ramp up early morning to late morning with midday gusts of 25-35kts. A very strong frontal passage moves through late afternoon to the evening, bringing strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds the primary severe weather concern. Cigs lower to MVFR with the approach of the storm line. Some showers and more isolated thunderstorm activity is present ahead of the front but the predominant thunderstorm activity should be with the front. Vsby drops to IFR are likely with the front. Trailing shower activity has decreased in forecast models, though strong WNW winds bringing in cold air could result in some light snow (minimal accumulation) mixing in briefly in the north during the evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ Sunday to 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for KYZ001>022.