textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be the driest day of the forecast period, with daily chances of rain across the entire Quad State for Sunday through the week ahead, with the highest chances occurring on Tuesday.

- Total average rainfall between 1 and 2 inches is forecast over the next week; localized higher totals could result in minor flood issues.

UPDATE

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Areas of light rain and drizzle continue to slowly progress eastward through the Quad State region during the pre-dawn hours. Rain coverage should slowly diminish through the early morning hours. Patchy fog is possible accompanying or in the wake of the light rain. Continued cloud cover and moisture will keep lows elevated in the lower 60s.

Blocking high pressure in New England/Atlantic Canada will allow for ridging to build in the east and a stalling low pressure system in the Ohio River Valley/Eastern Great Lakes later on in the weekend. The cold front that pushed through stalls out and lingers to the south giving a bit of a break from the rain today across portions of the Quad State. A secondary boundary moves through Sunday and then stalls out similarly. Early next week, models favor a northward shift in the largely west-east boundary, increasing shower/thunderstorm chances midweek as ridging builds over the Midwest. A Rex block pattern could develop mid-late week.

Generally calmer conditions are forecast tomorrow, with the favorable moisture plume tracking south of the Quad State through Tennessee. Moisture increases Monday to Tuesday as the boundary lifts back north, bringing PWs of 1.5-1.75+" to the region. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast areawide Sunday through the week ahead, with PoPs peaking on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts aren't especially high any of these days, with heavy rain primarily accompanying thunderstorms. Severe weather is a minimal factor for the week ahead with no standout days as shear is very limited. Localized flooding issues are possible after so many days of rain, and D4-D5 marginal EROs reflect this concern, though rain will be fairly beneficial with potential improvement of drought conditions.

With partial clearing of skies today, highs lift to near 80, with a very slow warming trend for the week ahead as highs remain in the 80s. The moisture rich environment keeps lows in the lower 60s over the weekend, rising to the upper 60s for midweek, only starting to lower late week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Light rain/drizzle will continue across the Quad State with the highest chances in the east and diminishing coverage towards dawn. Generally IFR cigs and MVFR to VFR vsbys through dawn with pockets of LIFR cigs (mainly over Western Kentucky) or IFR vsby (with rain). Slow lifting of cloud heights during the day is expected with coverage decreasing later in the day. VFR conditions take over in the afternoon and remain through the rest of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.