textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- The next chance of rain (15-30% IL/IN and 40-60% KY/MO) will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain less than a quarter inch, greatest totals near the AR/TN borders.

- Temperatures will run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Tuesday, before moderating to near normal. For comparison, normal highs are in the mid to upper 40s and normal lows are in the upper 20s to low 30s. In fact, there is a 50-80% chance of seeing 60 degrees or better by Tuesday!

- More widespread rainfall remains possible (30-40% chance) for roughly Friday through Saturday. There is roughly the same chance of seeing an inch of rain or more, but a lot of uncertainty remains during that time period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A low pressure system and warm front lifting through the area this afternoon may touch off a few sprinkles or perhaps a light rain shower over SEMO/west KY; however, most locations will remain dry. Otherwise, mid to high clouds will be the rule with fairly light winds. Skies will clear off tonight with continued light winds under a stout temperature inversion, which may allow for at least patchy fog development across SEMO into west KY.

Temperature will warm above normal through at least Tuesday as both southerly flow and upper-level ridging both increase across the area. In fact, temperatures may warm as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Tuesday before trending closer to normal for the end of the week. In fact, there is a 50-80% chance of seeing 60 degrees or better by Tuesday!

A west-east oriented cold front is expected to sag through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, which may act as a focus for some scattered rain showers across the area. The best chance (40-60%) would be across SEMO into western KY Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Not a drought busting rain, but those locations could see up to a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

The end of the week into the weekend will be the next chance (30- 40%) for more widespread rainfall, but there is a significant disagreement from model to model and run to run in the deterministic models. Most of the ensembles (AI/GFS/EC) have rain falling across a good portion of the area, but vary one placement of heavies rainfall from directly over the Quad State to just southeast of the area. The totals also vary from a half inch up to 1-2 inches. Again, a lot to work out for that time period, but it does at least appear that temperatures will be held back closer to normal with increased cloud cover and some precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Clear skies will give way to light & variable winds overnight across the entire region. There is a 20% chance of vsby reductions, especially at KCGI, but confidence remains low in patchy fog development Monday morning. Winds during the day will be out of the southwest around 5 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.