textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A cooler weekend is in store before temperatures warm back above normal next week.

- Scattered showers will be possible mainly over southeast Missouri overnight tonight through Sunday. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible in the afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday through Thursday next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening and possibly again on Thursday. Heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be common across the region, with higher amounts possible in the Ozark Foothills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A cold front is just about to exit the Pennyrile, allowing surface high pressure to nose in over the region. Low cloudiness should linger for much of the day, so temperatures will actually be a few degrees below normal, possibly as much as 5 degrees below normal across the northern half of the region.

Surface high pressure will hold steady over the region Sunday, as a weak upper-level disturbance moves overhead. Low-level moisture will be non-existent, but there will be plenty of moisture above 850mb to support at least some scattered showers. Small chances of showers will spread east across southeast Missouri overnight tonight into Sunday morning. By afternoon, there may be just enough elevated instability to support a few rumbles of thunder once again over southeast Missouri. There is some disagreement in the latest guidance in how far east the showers will push Sunday afternoon, but for now we will hold them up over the western half of the forecast area.

High pressure aloft will build over the Quad State Sunday night into Monday, as a large upper trough settles in from the northern Plains to the desert southwest. Surface low pressure also over the northern Plains will induce southerly winds over the Quad State. This will lead to a very warm day with highs in the middle 80s. Some upper 80s will be possible. South winds may gust up to 25 mph at times over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

The portion of the upper trough over the northern Plains will combine with northern stream energy and push eastward across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will flatten the upper ridge and allow the associated cold front to push toward the Quad State. Convection from Monday night could also push an outflow boundary into the area. Either of these boundaries could be a focus for thunderstorm development by Tuesday afternoon. Moderate instability is possible, but the shear is not likely to be that great, especially compared to many events we have had so far this season. However, severe storms with all modes of severe weather will be possible.

The NBM pushes the boundary through the entire region Tuesday night, but that may be on the aggressive side, so it would not be surprising for the boundary to hang up over the Quad State. A nearly stationary boundary roughly aligned with the southwest flow aloft certainly could lead to a continuation of thunderstorms through Wednesday and into Thursday. This could lead to some heavy rainfall and flooding threat mainly over the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri where over 2" of rain is currently forecast. Much of the area will see 1-2" of rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday night, but far southeast portions of the region may only see 0.5"-0.75".

The tail end of the upper trough will push eastward across the Quad State Thursday evening. Its approach will likely push the boundary back north of the area, but it will quickly push back to the south and east late Thursday and Thursday evening. Wind shear will likely be its greatest on Thursday, but instability could be hard to achieve with ongoing convection and associated cloud cover possible through the day. There certainly is a chance of more severe storms on Thursday, but there are a lot more potential limitations compared to Tuesday's likely severe event.

In the wake of Thursday's system, a very skinny ridge aloft will develop over the Plains, with amplified troughing over the western half of the country and over the east. Surface high pressure at the surface should keep the area dry with closer to normal temperatures Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Following the passage of a cold front, low-level moisture will linger, allowing MVFR ceilings to spread across the region overnight through the morning hours. Ceilings will gradually scattered and lift to VFR in the 17-21z window, with VFR conditions forecast thereafter. Winds will be light from the N-NW overnight, increasing to around 7-12 kts after 15z. Winds will again relax after 24z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.