textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm start to the day gives way to a cold front this evening

- There remains a small possibility for thunderstorms ahead of the front across southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. The probability of storms forming is low (about 15-25%) but if they do they may contain some wind and hail threat.

- The cold front will lock in colder temperatures through the next several days with afternoon highs 48-52 and low below freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Main focus of the forecast continues to be the approaching strong cold front and associated convective potential. Right now there is an upper low swirling over Texas and a diving shortwave trough over the central Plains that is expected to pick up a cold front and help spin up/deepen a surface low over IL/IN/OH that will be deepening modestly as it passes north. Southwesterly flow picks up later this morning at the surface and advects in air over central Texas that sits with dewpoints at about 58-60 degrees. The geometry of the upper level pattern looks to prevent any of the richer moisture from the western Gulf and deep south Texas (65-70 dewpoints) from getting pulled into the stream moving it into this area.

The end result is dewpoints building to about 55-59 in the afternoon ahead of the front. The RRFS and HRRR produce a brief window of about 900 J/kg of ML-ECAPE (Mixed layer entrainment factored CAPE). 850 winds are southwesterly at 25 to 30 kts with about 90 kts at 250 mb. This gives us some moderate speed shear with a fairly straight hodograph. 3-6km lapse rates are fairly steep at 6.8-6.9 C/km with FZLs about 9000-10000 ft. As has been modeled for several days column RH is highest at the very top of the boundary layer and I think its possible we get very shallow showers that are pseudo-elevated even as precip gets going. REFS members are very slow to develop deep convection, with it holding off until leaving the forecast area to the east. I think its also possible the surface cold front tracks slightly faster than modeled given the shallow dense cold airmass, although modeling is getting a lot better at timing these than in years past. If a perfect situation comes together and you get a surface based cell 900-1000 J/kg is sufficient for some wind and possibly small hail threat given the shear and thermodynamic profiles. I think the most likely outcome still (85% chance) is for deep convection to fail to initiate in the CWA. If not we will have a few storms to watch by 3-5 pm in the easternmost part of the CWA.

Still looks much colder behind the front. Highs look to range 47-52 or so through Monday and trending colder with overnight lows below freezing through next Tuesday. A shortwave passes basically directly overhead early next week and generate precip and a low to our south. This would keep the area in a cool airmass with mostly dry conditions into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 948 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The only change for the 06Z TAFs was to add a Prob30 for TSRA at KEVV and KOWB in the 21-01Z window based on the 00Z RRFS. Otherwise, shallow fog could develop at KMVN at anytime since they are already saturated, and 20-25kts gusts will be possible ahead of and behind the front. The gustiness will likely continue behind the front through much of the evening, with the exception of the wind sink at KMVN.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.