textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and tonight. A few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

- Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday into Saturday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again Friday afternoon and evening.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms may result in flash flooding. A flood watch has been issued for portions of the area.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will arrive Sunday and continue through most of next week. Daily heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are forecast first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Upper level flow becomes largely zonal the next couple of days. A series of disturbances embedded within this flow will bring a few chances for showers and storms to the Quad State. The first arrives tonight as a shortwave brings a cold front towards the area. Convection developing to the west will work its way into the area mostly after 00Z tonight. While instability will be on the decrease there may be enough along with 30-40 knots of deep layer shear to support organized convection and a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds as the main threat.

Another shortwave on Friday will bring an additional round of increased storm coverage. A stalled frontal boundary will be located north of I-64 and may focus a bit better coverage across our northern counties. There may be enough overlap of shear and instability for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms as well. Rainfall amounts have trended upwards with this forecast package. While the NBM keeps the footprint of higher amounts further north due to a few individual outlier solutions, the HREF and LREF both have a strong signal for heavy rainfall in portions of the area. The forecast generally calls for as much as 1-3 inches of rainfall but some localized areas could see higher amounts. A flood watch has been coordinated for portions of southeast Missouri, all of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

Precipitation chances linger into Saturday before the front finally lifts north. An upper level ridge develops over the region late this weekend and persists into next week. Much warmer temperatures will result with highs pushing into the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures will settle into the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will rise into the 105-110 range Monday into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Small probability for ground fog across parts of SEMO tonight after mid level clouds clear. Probability at CGI too low for TAF mention at this point still however. Convection after 00z Friday will be the next potential flight impediment with chances higher at the western terminals before 06z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111. IN...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for KYZ014-018.