textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- The Christmas warm up is underway across the Quad State. Christmas Day through Saturday should be the warmest days, with some locations climbing into 70s multiple days. Some daily high temperature records could fall, and record nighttime warmth is likely over much of the area.

- Persistent cloud cover with periods of drizzle or light rain will be the rule throughout the region at least through Wednesday, and possibly through Friday in portions of the Evansville Tri State. - A strong cold front will bring an end to the warmth this weekend, most likely Saturday night, with a chance of showers and much cooler air expected with the frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Strong warm and moist advection has lifted temperatures to the 50s to near 60 across the Quad State, with similar dew points as the surface layer is largely saturated. Pockets of drizzle are falling, and patchy fog development is likely. Some partial clearing in the far northwest may allow for a brief dip to the 40s in locations like Mount Vernon, IL. Drizzle largely gets confined to Western Kentucky and SEMO today (the latter has trended higher for PoPs today in the CAMs). With very warm temperatures to start the day, highs will easily be in the 60s. A boundary moves through much of the Quad State aiding in suppressing northward extent of precip, then reverses and moves north Wednesday. Throughout all this, QPF is trivial and, at the most, we merely see a transition from drizzle to light rain for Christmas Eve.

A very broad synoptic ridge builds further, heading into Christmas Day, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Shower chances have ticked upwards for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, mainly in the northeast, as a small disturbance moves through the Midwest. A stronger system follows Friday, again yielding small shower chances in the northeast. Models are increasing converging on a longer duration resurgence in the ridge afterwards, allowing for potential widespread 70s for highs Friday and also Saturday, which will probably set several record highs and warm minimums.

A strong cold front moves through the Quad State Saturday night into early Sunday, sharply lowering temperatures for early next week with highs potentially near freezing. There's some variation in timing and strength in guidance, which results in a bit of thunder in the grids.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Low MVFR and IFR conditions are widespread across the area. Ceilings are holding between about 800 and occasionally up to 1700 ft mostly around 1200 ft. Low-level wind shear conditions are expected to continue for another few hours as well. I think cigs hold above 500 ft but there are still some models that want to take things down below 500 in the 3-6 am timeframe.

Low MVFR/grungy low cloud conditions seem likely to persist through the day Tuesday and into early evening as moisture pours in below a sharp temperature inversion.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.