textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring rain and a good chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms ahead of the front with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes the primary hazard.

- Winds will be gusty out of the south today before shifting to the northwest this evening. Gusts are expected to reach 40 to 45 mph.

- A brief blast of cold air will arrive tonight through Tuesday. Temperatures will struggle to warm above freezing for that time period and there is a 60-90 percent chance that wind chill values fall into the single digits above zero!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Right now a surface low over southern Wisconsin is about 998mb and deepening. A sharp/very strong cold front is draped from just west of Springfield, MO northeastward into the low. Ahead of the front we are seeing spotty gusts to 35-40 mph and behind the front I see 40-50 mph gusts in places over NE/IA/MO. Convective cumulus are bubbling ahead of the front, likely being held up for the meantime by a modest capping inversion apparent on observed and model soundings over this area and stretching back towards the front. Water vapor satellite shows broadly diffluent flow over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and a narrow band of more intense lift along the cold front and then stretching westward into the main trough axis that is moving into southwestern Kansas. Surface temperatures are working on daily record maximums in the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints 60 to 63. There are still 66 to 68 degree dewpoints to our southwest in Arkansas being advected into the area on strong southwest winds. RAP analysis yields about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the front, and building slowly as the lift works out the capping inversion and steepens mid level lapse rates slightly. Modified RAP/HRRR soundings show about 500-800 J/kg of MLCAPE by later this afternoon across the quad-state as the front begins moving in by mid-afternoon. CAM guidance shows a narrow band of broken to quasi-linear convection forming up by 3 to 4 pm, and from the trends on visible satellite over Missouri this isn't hard to picture.

These storms will be interacting with 850mb winds 40-50 kts or so, with more westerly 500mb winds around 70kt. Shear values and vectors look favorable for damaging winds. 0-1km storm relative helicity values are about 250-300 m2/s2. With the sharp very cold and dense airmass being pushed in behind the front it looks like we may have a convective line that is extremely close, and probably occasionally undercut by this advancing cold airmass. This would potentially mitigate the surface based severe threat at times. Wherever it does not however we will have to be on guard for wind/tornado spinups followed by a blitz of cold air and strong winds, with gusts 40 to 45 mph likely continuing for several hours, with some locally higher gusts possible based on how things look up stream. Its entirely possible we will have periods of a relatively benign convective line right along and behind the front that rapidly evolves into more surface based action that produces more of a severe threat and then falls back behind.

Very cold temperatures set up then tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s and wind chills in the 10s to single digits.

We then see some northwest flow aloft for a couple days before it tries to work back more zonal. Various deterministic and ensemble members show little ripples in the flow that bring some precip chance, but nothing that looks particularly impressive or consistent right now. Temperatures for now look to be close to normal for a change, with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows close to freezing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Increasingly gusty southwest winds with MVFR cigs anticipated through the next several hours. Confidence is increasing in some form of convective line, possibly with severe convection moving into the area this afternoon into tonight. Gusts with the line and/or with the very sharp front immediately behind the line will probably exceed 40 kts for a period. Strong gusty northwest winds then persist overnight, ceilings should open up a little but at least a little bit of low cloud probably starts wrapping around the system in the early morning hours Monday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to 6 AM CST /7 AM EST/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for KYZ001>022.