textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the work week along with seasonably warm temperatures. Highs will be slightly above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Tropical moisture from the Gulf may bring portions of our region rain over the coming weekend, particularly Saturday night into Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Conditions are about as pleasant and benign as you can get today. High pressure remains in control of our weather from the northeast initially then a new system from the northwest through the latter part of the week.

A tropical system brewing in the southwestern Gulf is showing increasing signs of organization this afternoon and may become a tropical depression later today or early tomorrow. Guidance is consistent on bringing versions of this system at varying intensities into the north-central Gulf coast by Saturday or Sunday for now. A shortwave trough pushing this system starts to provide increased large scale ascent with associated moisture advection by Saturday afternoon and evening and, as anticipated, rain chances are increasing Saturday PM and especially Sunday. PWAT values are around 2.00 inches as modeled currently and bouts of locally heavy rainfall appear possible. GFS tracks this system to the east of the area where the latest ECMWF tends to bring the remnants more directly overhead. This will depend largely on when, where, and how intensely the storm develops in it's approach to the Gulf coast. A NOAA synoptic mission is underway today to evaluate the airmass in and around the developing storm and subsequent runs of guidance should have this data factored in. With the synoptic pattern favorable for a precursor rainfall event, a direct track of the actual cyclone remnants on top of that could lead to some flooding issues by Sunday evening, but we will have to see how the details play out.

Both GFS/ECMWF clear the upper trough by Monday putting us back in a stable high-pressure regime with seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Winds will become light and variable or calm overnight under clear skies. At CGI, impacts from shallow river fog are possible again during the 09-13z window. Started with MVFR restrictions here, but based on yesterday's observations may need to trend this more pessimistically with the next update. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast with winds becoming W-SW around 4-8 kts after 13z through the rest of the forecast period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.