textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy and cold tonight with the potential for areas of freezing fog to develop.

- Cold, winter-like temperatures hold thru the entire week with lows each night falling into the teens and 20s. Single digit wind chills are forecast late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning for northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

- A couple chances for low end precipitation chances are possible later this week and late weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 951 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The latest model guidance has trended in a more aggressive direction with the freezing fog development overnight across the Ozark Foothills. The worst period of the fog looks to be between 3 and 9 AM. Coordinated with our neighbors at NWS Springfield to issue a Freezing Fog Advisory for this strip across southern/southeast Missouri beginning at midnight through 9 AM CST.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface high pressure is settling across the region this afternoon after the passage of our winter storm system that brought some wintry precipitation to the area. Satellite imagery still indicates cloud cover blankets the region with some breaks in the clouds now being seen in SEMO. Gradual clearing is expected later this afternoon and into the overnight at least west of the MS river, but it may be awhile longer before areas east of the river clear out. Low temperatures in the lower 20s will be common tonight with upper teens possible across the north. Areas of freezing fog is possible tonight into Wednesday morning.

Surface high pressure breaks down and translates eastward Wednesday before a weak dry front moves across the region. Can't rule out a brief snow flurry or two north of I-64. Behind the front, high pressure plunges across the Midwest and moves into the Ohio Valley by late in the week. Highs Thursday may struggle to get to freezing across much of the area but quickly rise into the upper 30s to 40s Friday and through the weekend. Lows in the 20s will be common much of this week with upper teens expected Thursday night. Wind chills may get into the single digits late Wednesday night into Thursday morning for northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Much of the rest of the forecast is generally dry although we still watch for the potential for another system or two that may bring light wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning, and again on Sunday although a lot of uncertainty still exists on moisture availability.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will be the rule until they aren't. Guidance is not handling them well. The LAMP guidance has been the best by far, so decided to follow it closely for clearing. Clearing is not likely until the afternoon, and should progress from northwest to southeast. In addition, the ceilings are likely to descend into IFR levels in the 09Z-15Z period, before lifting back to MVFR. Latest satellite imagery does show a slight eastward progression for the west edge of the clouds, but figure that will cease shortly. If it were to clear KCGI, dense freezing fog may develop.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ100- 107>109. IN...None. KY...None.