textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will accompany a cold frontal passage through early Friday morning. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but a few stronger storms could produce pockets of damaging winds along with brief heavy rainfall.

- After a brief break from the humidity on Friday, soupy conditions return Saturday afternoon and may linger into Sunday. Another round of showers and storms appears likely Saturday into Saturday night, and this may linger into at least the first half of Sunday. Severe storms and flash flooding are possible with this system.

- Early next week is trending cooler and less humid. There is a 70- 90% chance at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday! This appears short-lived though as higher humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the week. Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as well.

UPDATE

Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms stretches from Michigan southeastward into northeastern Oklahoma late this evening, with coverage more broken in nature from Saint Louis and points southwest. The convection will sneak into our northwestern counties around 05z or shortly thereafter and then gradually sink southeastward across the Quad State through 12z Friday. Have already noticed a weakening trend with the storms and this should continue into the overnight. However, we still have 1000-2000 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with which combined with at least modest shear of 25-30 kts may lead to a few storms intensifying to severe levels with primarily a damaging wind threat (DCAPE over 1000 j/kg). Not really expecting a flooding threat as the line should be progressive enough, but can't rule out a localized concern.

Northerly winds usher in drier air through the day on Friday with dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s. It might take until late in the day or evening to work into portions of west KY though. The frontal boundary that sinks south of our area on Friday will return north on Saturday, with a return of dew points in the low to mid 70s. Models also are advertising a shortwave progressing across Missouri into our area on Saturday which will kick off showers and storms. We may have some ongoing convection early Saturday morning into midday, most likely in our western cwa. Additional storms seem likely to fire up at some point during the afternoon or evening and we may have an MCS dive southeastward across the region at some point through Saturday night. We should have the instability gradient situated over us along with respectable shear to lead to a severe storm threat. Pwats look quite high as well (over 2") and it appears training convection will be a concern which would pose a flash flooding risk. Certainly looks a bit more concerning for both severe and flooding then it did 24 hours ago, so we will see if that trend continues.

We may have some convection linger into Sunday morning before drier air works through the region by afternoon. LREF continues to paint high probabilities (70-90%) at dew points below 60 on Monday and Tuesday. There is also a very high probability (90-95%) of high temperatures remaining below 80 on Monday. Temperatures will begin to warm up again mid next week along with higher humidity returning. Seems to be a decent signal for another chance for rain by next Wednesday into Thursday as well. Noticed the LREF probabilities for high temps reaching 90 degrees are below 40% every day through the end of next week, so at least we keep the heat in check.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A band of showers and thunderstorms, will continue sinking south out of our area by mid morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be out of the NNW today, generally around 4-7 kts, before becoming light tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.