textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills are expected this morning. Wind chills below zero are a near certainty (nearly 100% chance) across the entire region and there is a 50-60% chance values may drop to -10 along and north of I-64.

- Temperatures moderate back closer to normal Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures likely exceed freezing across the entire area (even a 60-70% chance in the north) while southern areas may exceed 40 degrees (40-60% chance), especially on Tuesday.

- There is a 30-50% chance that light precipitation will spread across the region Tuesday or Tuesday night. Some wintry precipitation is possible, but chances of observing measurable snow from this are currently quite low (only 20-30% across the north half of the area).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

As the primary upper trough pivots south across the region early this morning, flurries and even a few light snow showers are possible. The deep upper low sets up over the Southeastern U.S. today. Additional weak vort lobes rotate down within the broad trough in place, which may be enough to squeeze out some flurries or light snow showers from midday into the afternoon, primarily across the east half of the area.

A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until Noon as wind chills in the 0 to -10 range are expected. Even the afternoon wind chill values will struggle to rise out of the single digits! The pressure gradient does relax this evening though as surface high pressure nudges eastward. Thus, while another cold night is expected tonight, the wind shouldn't be much of a factor, so not planning on issuing another Cold Weather Advisory. As we head into Sunday, another ripple on the backside of the trough will dive south out of the Midwest which could produce an additional period of flurries or light snow showers from late afternoon into the evening, but areas to our north stand the best chance at receiving anything measurable from this.

The upper pattern relaxes heading into early next week with 500mb heights rising and flow becoming somewhat more zonal. Surface winds take on a southwesterly component and help usher in more tolerable temperatures. Guidance is suggesting a high likelihood of exceeding freezing (80-100% chance) across the south half of the area and even pretty good odds in our north (60-70% chance). There's even a 40-60% chance portions of west KY and southeast MO hit 40 on Tuesday.

The zonal flow doesn't last long as additional shortwave energy dives southeast out of the Northern Plains and may interact with a southern stream wave to produce some light precipitation across the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures appear to be warm enough for mainly rain across the southern portions of our area, but may still be cold enough for some snow or a light wintry mix across the north half. QPF amounts look quite light, with chances of a tenth of an inch or more only around 30-50% (highest in the southeast). Chances of measurable snow (0.1" or greater) are even lower, only around 20-30% across the north.

Long wave troughing will tend to dominate the mid to latter part of the week across the Eastern CONUS. While another brief warmup appears probable next Friday (NBM has roughly a 40-70% chance of temperatures reaching 40 across the southwest half of our cwa), it likely will be short-lived as temperatures largely remain below normal through next weekend. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 40s by then.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1034 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Cigs have been slow to lower tonight and may simply thicken to low VFR overnight. There still remains a 30-40% chance of intermittent pockets of MVFR cigs, but confidence is lower. A higher probability of MVFR cigs arrives at KEVV/KOWB by mid day. There is more uncertainty at KMVN/KPAH, as model guidance differs on the western extent. Have maintained MVFR mention given a 60-70% chance. Low cigs begin to scatter out Saturday evening, but linger across the eastern terminals. North to northwest winds between 10-16 kts will gust to 20-25 kts on Saturday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /1 PM EST/ today for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KYZ001>022.