textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30-60% chance of daily showers and storms this weekend. A strong storm or two is possible this evening and overnight across southwest Indiana.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday evening for southwest portions of the region. Daily high temperatures trend more into the lower 90s through early next week with heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

- Northerly flow may briefly cause moderate unhealthy air quality conditions across the far north on Sunday while the latter half of next week may pose a more impactful risk due to the ongoing Northwestern Ontario wildfire smoke.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper level troughing digs into the far Northeast today with a ridge axis situated across the Rockies. This places the Quad State in a northwest flow aloft with a shortwave expected to traverse the region today. Additionally, a front will approach from the north late tonight. Outside of afternoon showers/storms, a round of thunderstorms are expected along this front as it dips south into the Quad State. This activity will likely be on a weakening trend as it moves in given the late timing. A marginal risk is still in place for the northeast portions of the area for mainly a damaging wind threat.

Additional chances for showers/storms are in the forecast Sun into Mon associated with the front before its lifts back north within a northwest flow aloft. An area of low pressure will send another front through the Quad State late Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances across the eastern portions of the Quad State. Can't rule out a few isolated strong to severe storms as shear and forcing increases during this time. Surface high pressure settles in Wednesday and Thursday bringing a period of drier weather. Highs this weekend and into early next week in the low 90s combined with dewpoints in the 70s result in several days of heat index values near or above 100 degrees. A heat advisory remains in effect from late this morning till Tuesday. Behind the midweek front, temperatures will cool off a few degrees with highs in the low to mid 80s. Northerly flow associated with upper-level troughing over the Ohio Valley may yield a greater risk for poor air quality conditions due to the ongoing wildfires in Canada, and will be something to monitor more in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Westerly winds will increase to 6 to 8 knots through the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kts at EVV and OWB. Low confidence on impacts to terminals from SHRA/TSRA but did include PROB30 groups where appropriate. Additional convective activity may approach from the north overnight but confidence remains low on impacts. Winds tonight will become light around 3-4 knots.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ080- 081-084>086-088>090-092>094. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>009.