textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round or two of showers and storms is likely Saturday into Saturday night. Severe storms and flash flooding are possible with this system.

- Early next week is expected to be cooler and less humid. There is a 70-90% chance at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday! This appears short-lived though as higher humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the week. Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as well.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface high pressure is settling across the region this afternoon with a light north wind and drier air slowly starting to filter in. High pressure will be quick to move off to the east tonight and into Saturday. Aloft, a disturbance embedded in zonal flow is expected to traverse the Quad State and interact with a frontal zone laid out across the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Missouri on Saturday and may develop into a MCS that rides along a strong theta-e gradient oriented NW-SE Saturday morning into the afternoon. Sufficient shear in place along with strong instability would offer a severe storm threat. Depending on airmass recovery behind this MCS, another round of showers and storms may develop late Saturday. PWs will be high and several rounds of rain/storms leads to increasing concern for flash flooding.

Residual convection may linger into Sunday before a front finally pushes its way through the area. Much drier air will work its way in as high pressure develops. Dewpoints are likely to drop into the 50s Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. A disturbance will pass by the south Monday night into Tuesday but at this time it looks to remain to our south keeping conditions dry. Upper troughing develops mid to late week and may offer chances for showers and storms to return to the area along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 450 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A more tranquil/benign pattern in place tonight will give way to more active convective chances over the course of the day tmrw. This will introduce and lower VFR bases to MVFR CIGS as SHRA/TSRA become more probable, esp entering and during the planning phase hours of the forecast. The increased probs for SHRA/TSRA will likewise bring associated restrictions to VSBYS if/where they occur.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.