textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible today between 2 to 7 PM, mainly over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky under a slight risk of severe weather. Very large hail and damaging winds is the main concern, but a brief spin up tornado also cannot be ruled out.

- Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight before dry weather returns Wednesday morning. Additional rainfall between 0.50 to 1.00 inches is possible, with a 30-40% chance of exceeding 1.50 inches locally.

- Below normal temperatures trend more seasonable late weekend into early next week. A 10-20% chance of light rain returns across the far south on Friday, but most of the period will be dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A stalled frontal boundary associated with a 994 mb sfc low pressure over Ontario will set the stage for a low-end severe weather risk this afternoon. The southern most counties in SPC's slight risk in southeast Missouri and western Kentucky is the greatest area of concern between 2 to 7 PM. The latest HRRR and RAP show a cluster of storms quickly pushing east. The instability gradient will be tight with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Combined with steep lapse rates between 7.5 to 8.5 C/km and 50 to 60 kts of effective bulk shear, the main concern will be the potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The low-level shear is meager compared to yesterday, but a brief spin up tornado also cannot be ruled out.

Convection over Arkansas will likely inhibit the moisture return needed for severe weather further north, but an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the entire FA overnight before diminishing Wednesday morning as the cold front sweeps through. Additional rainfall is progged between 0.50 to 1.00 inches, but there is 30-40% chance of exceeding 1.50 inches locally with stronger convection. Flash flooding issues should remain isolated and confined to runoff on roadways due to the short duration of heavy rainfall.

Much cooler air arrives behind the front on Wednesday with northwesterly flow. BUFKIT soundings show deep mixing to 850 mb, supporting wind gusts between 15 to 25 mph, with a 60-80% chance of reaching 25 mph on the EPS. Broad troughing aloft with cyclonic flow keeps rain chances suppressed, but there remains a 10-20% chance of light rain over southern portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky on Friday. The GEFS has trended more south, but still squeezes out a tenth of an inch along the southern border while the EPS keeps things dry. Sfc high pressure builds in over the weekend, with more seasonable temperatures into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

As a wave of low pressure rides a boundary across the southern flight zones, showers/storms will continue to cause and further deteriorate flight conditions. Bases/cigs will become restricted at times, and predominant overnight upon its passage. Vsbys will restrict to MVFR and have lower restricted potential. Finally the pcpn dwindles, winds pick up with some gustiness out of the north, and while low bases linger into tmrw, some overall improvements should be noted toward if not realized into Visual Flight Rules by/during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.