textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A disturbance passing south of the region will bring light rain tonight into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.05 to 0.25" from northwest to southeast.

- Dry and mild conditions are expected from the latter half of Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will warm 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring a daily chance (40-60%) of light rain Sunday through Tuesday. A light rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out Sunday night north of Interstate 64.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A weak surface low pressure will pass across the Mid-South tonight as the region remains under weakly cyclonic H5 synoptic flow. This will bring areas light rain to the area tonight into Thursday morning, with the best chances (60-90%) across the southern KY Pennyrile. By Thursday morning, rain will end from west to east, with rainfall amounts around 0.10-0.25" forecast from the MO Bootheel northeast across much of west KY. Further north and west, dry northeasterly winds will limit precipitation amounts greatly to only a trace to around 0.10". Overall, any precipitation is welcome, but these amounts will not make a dent on the ongoing drought.

Friday into Saturday will see a return of dry and mild conditions. Continued mild H5 zonal flow and surface high pressure centered over the southeast CONUS will yield well above normal temperatures, during this time, about 10-15 degrees above normal. Will need to watch for the potential for elevated fire weather conditions, especially on Saturday. However, forecast winds as they stand look fairly light at 5-10 mph from the SW.

An unsettled weather pattern looks to arrive beginning Sunday and potentially continuing through the first half of next week as we transition to a more trough-dominated synoptic pattern. This will result in a return of seasonable temperatures and periods of light precipitation impacting the region.

The most organized system looks to move across the area Sunday into Monday. This will mostly be light rain, but temperatures may fall low enough for a brief rain/snow mix Sunday night north of Interstate 64. However, no accumulation or impacts are expected. Current rainfall amounts look at bit more promising for drought relief, with the latest NBM ensemble guidance showing a 60-80% chance of more than 0.50" of total precipitation between Sunday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mid-level cloud cover will thicken and lower this afternoon and evening as disturbance passes south of the region. Light rain showers will develop after 00z, with the highest chances along the KY/TN border, but some light shower activity is possible at all the terminals. MVFR cigs will also accompany the rain at CGI and PAH in the 03-15z winds before lifting back to VFR. Winds will be light from the W-WSW at 4-8 kts this afternoon, becoming light from the NE at 3-7 kts tonight through Thursday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.