textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread southeast across the entire region, with 80-100% chances realized by this afternoon-evening.

- There is a small risk (15% or less) of storms becoming strong/severe this afternoon or evening, but best severe chances look to shift to our south.

- Storm rainfall forecast totals average 1 to 2.33 inches, but localized higher amounts cannot be ruled out. For areas that receive greater than 2 inches rainfall, there is a WPC MRGL risk for potential flooding issues; however mostly the impacts of expected rainfall will be to help our continued overall drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

All eyes turn to a cold front that will approach/make passage today-tonight. With moisture increasing today upon the front's approach, we should see clouds increase, lower, and thicken as it nears. The front will provide the necessary convergence/trigger to help realize our categorical pops, as indicated by time/height cross sections saturating the column down over the back half of the day/into the night. The models retard overall instability (esp surface-based) as a result, but the front is coming in during the peak heating afternoon/evening hours, so we'll have to monitor that closely as otherwise challenged lapse rates and poor instability may be overcome by the synoptic lift of the front and the waves that the models ride along it into the night-time upon its forthcoming passage. Increasing shear associated with the parent system would yield some MRGL/perhaps SLGT risk svr as indicated by SPC's outlook, but we are not necessarily bullish on the chances given the negating instability parameters and channelled flow setup.

Other than the strong/svr storm storm potential, overall qpf provided by a good soaking rain may yield a MRGL (WPC) risk of flooding should storms repeat or over-perform from the storm total average QPF expectations of generally 1 inch to perhaps as much as 2 and a third inches, localized totals potentially higher.

As a result of the clouds/pcpn, temps will stay largely in the 60s today, well below yesterday's 80s. This will herald a start week cool period where we have highs in the 60s daily thru Wednesday, before a late week warmup commences. Similar to the highs, lows too will fall back to cooler than seasonal 40s for as many nights.

Friday night leading into the weekend brings another (small) chance of pcpn, before a more robust system brings better chances to the region as a whole late in the weekend leading into early next week. Between the two systems, temps try to bounce back to near or even above seasonal with 70s and 50s again, with some potential of reaching 80F for highs along and nearer our southern border this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Expect two rounds of thunderstorms that will buttress widespread light to moderate rain showers after 11-16z. The first round of thunder will be between mainly in the daylight morning hours, but coverage looks to be low enough for only PROB30 groups as a stationary boundary moves south into the area. The second round of thunder looks more pronounced and will be between 20-04z, where periods of VCTS are now included. Between these, cigs will fall to IFR with MVFR or IFR vsby restrictions. Winds will be steady from the S to SW around 6-12 kts until late afternoon, when they will become N to NE as the frontal boundary shifts south of the area along with continued light rain showers.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.