textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the work week along with above normal temperatures in the 80s.

- Confidence is increasing that the remnants of a tropical system will impact our region over the weekend. Peak timing for heavy rains has trended slightly faster, primarily focused in the Saturday evening through Sunday morning time period.

UPDATE

Issued at 531 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A weak frontal boundary is forecast to sink south towards our region today, making passage tonight. Models generally depict higher dew points pooling ahead of the boundary so despite warmer high temperatures in the low to mid 80s (even upper 80s in our northwest), minimum RH's are expected to be near or slightly higher than yesterday (mainly 30-35%). Areas near the KY/TN border have the best potential to see lower values. Winds will be out of the southwest today and will be strongest in our north, where deeper mixing may lead to some gustiness this afternoon.

Behind the frontal passage winds become northeasterly on Thursday. Despite this, actual high temperatures will remain similar in most places. Drier air will mix down the column in the afternoon with some guidance suggesting dew points falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s across much of the region. Confidence is highest this will occur in our north so for now have kept these lower values up there which results in RH's falling into the 20-25% range. Something to monitor though as potential is there for a good chunk of our cwa to witness RH's of 25% or lower on Thursday.

Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the southwestern Gulf and confidence is increasing that this will strengthen and become the Atlantic Basin's first Hurricane of the 2026 season. This system is forecast to make landfall somewhere in the vicinity of New Orleans to Mobile Friday night/early Saturday morning. The rain shield associated with it should quickly spread north across the TN Valley during the day on Saturday, potentially reaching southern portions of our cwa by midday or afternoon. Timing is still somewhat uncertain, but latest trends have been a bit quicker. So the daytime hours on Saturday may not end up being completely dry anymore, at least for the southern half of our area. As pwats increase to 2", heavier swaths of rain are anticipated Saturday evening into the night, possibly continuing into the day on Sunday. However, if the faster solution pans out, the system may be departing leaving behind mainly dry conditions by Sunday afternoon. We should have a better handle on timing and exact track within the next 48 hours or so.

For now, best to prepare for an unsettled weekend ahead, with moderate to heavy rain impacting the region leading to rainfall totals potentially in the 1-2" range. Can't rule out some localized higher amounts too that may lead to some flooding potential. If the center of the weakening tropical system tracks over our cwa, there could also be an increased concern for some severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes. Right now that threat appears highest to our east, but that could easily shift westward. We also may have some strong gusty gradient winds to deal with. Currently the GFS is showing potential at 30-40 mph gusts.

Once the tropical system departs, upper ridging builds back into the region allowing temperatures to return to above normal readings in the 80s early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Shallow river fog this morning (primarily impacting KCGI) will give way to SKC through the day. Calm winds become west- southwest around 5-10 kts today (strongest in the north). A weak frontal boundary moves through tonight with winds become northeasterly in it's wake tomorrow morning. Can't rule out some additional shallow fog late tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.