textproduct: Paducah
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ramps up by Friday evening, with rain chances peaking around 50-60% Saturday morning. Between one tenth to a half inch of rainfall is possible, with locally higher amounts.
- Unseasonably cool and pleasant conditions continue into Friday morning before the heat and humidity returns this weekend. Heat index values by Sunday and Monday will once again reach 105 degrees.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley is allowing for unseasonably cool and pleasant conditions today. Dewpoints have mixed down into the 50s due to northeasterly flow, with a deep dry layer around 800 mb. The break from the heat and humidity will not last for long as southerly return flow begins to advect in moisture on Friday. Rain chances also begin to increase with a 500 mb shortwave trough approaching the FA by Friday evening. Most of Friday outside of a few sprinkles towards SEMO likely remains dry, but the boundary layer eventually saturates Friday night supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The latest CAMs are currently struggling with a decaying complex of elevated storms early Saturday morning due to the location of a LLJ, but it does appear SEMO may be more favored for the potential of heavier rainfall. QPF currently ranges from one tenth to a half inch of rainfall, but locally higher amounts are possible with rain chances peaking at a 50-60% Saturday morning.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the western CONUS builds more into the FA on Sunday with a return to dry conditions. Latest model runs favor higher height rises, meaning the risk for storms riding along the ridge may end up staying north and east of the FA between Sunday and Tuesday. Still a non-zero chance something eventually sneaks down, but the current NBM forecast does not reflect this. However, the lack of rain means higher confidence in heat headlines making a return with the western half pushing a heat index of 105 by Sunday. Most of the FA likely will be near heat advisory criteria during the first half of next week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Light winds and VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.