textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak disturbance will pass south of the region this afternoon and tonight, bringing a 15-25% chance of light rain to areas along the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky-Tennessee borders.

- Dry weather and seasonable chilly temperatures are expected this weekend ahead of a major warmup for next week. High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal.

- The next chance of rainfall is forecast Wednesday night through Thursday with a 40-60% chance of rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 437 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Overcast skies remain across the Quad State region this afternoon keeping temperatures cool, with readings in the lower 30's near I-64 and mid to upper 30's elsewhere. Dry northwest flow remains as an area of weak surface low pressure develops to the southwest. This low will move east into the Tennessee Valley tonight. The trend for lower QPF and subsequent rainfall chances continues. The combination of dry northeast winds, and a further south surface wave ultimately means the precipitation shield will likely stay well enough south. Still, light rain is possible for areas along the TN and AR state line this afternoon into evening. QPF will be very light, generally only around a few hundreths of an inch.

The passage of this system will introduce surface high pressure to the north. This high pushes southeast behind the exiting upper level trough over the weekend with dry weather expected. Temperatures will be slow to warm, with highs near normal both Saturday and Sunday. A zonal upper level pattern takes shape next week with increasing southerly flow and a rather substantial warmup. High temperatures quickly warm to well above normal next week with highs above the 60 degree mark Tuesday through Friday. Low temperatures will also be above normal, with lows in the 40's to lower 50s.

The next chance of rain arrives late Wednesday into Thursday along with an increasingly amplified upper level pattern. Troughing takes shape out west, with an upper level disturbance lifting into the plains. While uncertainty remains in the actual track of this disturbance and associated low pressure, confidence continues to increase in measurable rainfall with a 40-60% chance of rain. Rainfall amounts are expected to be higher with this system given increasing dynamics and deeper moisture. Lapse rates continue to look poor which is limiting available instability and results in limited if any thunder chances for now, but this will continue to be something watch over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 437 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Persistence tracking and time/height cross sections suggest rain will largely avoid the terminals as the system passes just to our south. OVC CIGS will linger, though the most restrictive bases should be scouring out. Overall bases should ultimately start to scatter in the north during the planning phase hours of the forecast, working southward with time but holding at KCGI/KPAH likely til just after valid expiration time this package.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.