textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with warm days and cool nights will continue through the work week.

- Chances of showers return to the region this weekend, with the best chances Saturday night and Sunday. Additional chances will linger into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Dry surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through the remainder of the work week. High temperatures will continue to run around 10 degrees above normal, while low temperatures trend warmer and will generally be 5-10 degrees above normal. South winds will persist through the week, but should be light enough to keep any potential fire weather concerns in check.

The upper ridge will finally be shunted well to the east by this weekend, which will allow remnants from a tropical system off the west coast of Mexico to eventually stream over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley Saturday into Sunday. Guidance continues to bounce around with the associated QPF placement and amounts, but there will be a decent (~50%) chance of some rain throughout the Quad State. The best chances continue to be late Saturday night into Sunday morning which for now bodes well for Halloween activities.

Although we will have mid and high level moisture from the tropical remnant, the better surface moisture could get hung up south of the region which could limit rain chances and amounts for the Quad State. Last night's ensemble data indicated that much of the region would see up to a half an inch of rainfall, but the probabilities of even an inch were virtually nil. At this time, there is little to no instability and the NBM has removed all mention of thunder from the forecast. The one concern is very high precipitable water values (~200% of normal), which could certainly support a heavier rainfall event. We will continue to monitor closely for any signs of more significant rainfall or thunder potential.

Temperatures will remain mild over the weekend and into next Monday. Highs will be a bit lower with clouds and precipitation potential, but lows will be warmer with increased low-level moisture and the cloud cover.

There are signs of another storm system to impact the region as early as next Monday, but confidence in the details is quite low that far out in the forecast. However, the NBM does have 20-40% chances of showers lingering from Sunday night through Monday evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Lots of high cloud will continue to stream over the area through the period. A repeat of early morning shallow fog cannot be ruled out late tonight, with the best chance up at KMVN.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.