textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly near seasonable temperatures can be expected through Thursday night, then a significant warm up will begin Friday, with temperatures above normal through the weekend into Monday.

- Southwest Indiana and portions of southern Illinois along and north of Interstate 64 have small chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday evening and overnight, but measurable rainfall will be isolated.

- Better chances (20-50%) of showers and storms are expected Friday into Friday evening, with the higher chances north, then very isolated small chances (15-20%) will linger through the weekend.

- A more active weather pattern with higher chances (30-60%) of showers and storms will arrive Sunday night and especially early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mainly quiet conditions will persist through Thursday night. The only minor exception is Tuesday night as a weak cold front moves through our area. The model blend is trending lower but still produces a 6 hour window of some low end chances (15-30%) of a few showers or an isolated storm, now confined to just southwest Indiana and portions of southern Illinois along and north of Interstate 64. Overall, due to lacking low level moisture, any location will be lucky to see any measurable rainfall.

On Friday, increasing southerly winds will result in much warmer temperatures and increasing low level moisture through the weekend into early next week. On Friday into Friday night, models show a weak upper level wave moving across the region, and the blend produces 20-50% chances of showers and storms, with the higher chances across our northern counties. Rainfall amounts are mostly around a tenth of an inch or less, with isolated higher amounts possible in areas that see a thunderstorm. A weak upper level ridge then builds in over the weekend, but with the increasing moisture, models produce isolated chances (15-20%) at best of showers and storms through Sunday.

Late in the weekend, the upper ridge will move off to our east, and the models show a cold front approaching the PAH forecast area from the west. There are some pretty significant timing differences with the location of the front by early next week, but with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees by Monday, we should see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Monday. The model blend shows 20-40% chances of showers and storms spreading east across our area Sunday night into Monday morning, with chances increasing to 40-60% by Monday afternoon. Although timing adjustments are likely as we get closer, it looks like we are headed into a more active weather pattern next week.

Temperatures will continue to be within several degrees of seasonable readings through Thursday night. South winds on Friday will push temperatures into the 80s, and over the weekend into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers will develop this evening and move along the Interstate 64 corridor between roughly 06-12z Wednesday. Some shower activity with BKN mid-level cigs may briefly impact MVN, EVV, and OWB, but coverage appears to be too low to include more than a PROB30 group at this time. Steady SW around 4-8 kts winds this afternoon and evening will shift to the NW following the frontal passage and increase. Winds after 13-15z will be sustained around 10-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.