textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures remain in place through the weekend. There is a 40-60% chance at lows falling below 40 degrees Sunday morning, mainly across northern and eastern areas. Frost formation seems fairly unlikely at this time though (15-20% chance).

- Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Saturday (20-30% chance) east of the Mississippi River.

- While additional rain chances return Sunday night into Monday (mainly north), our best chance for rain looks to spread across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Current guidance gives us a 70-80% chance at receiving at least 0.5" and about a 40-50% chance at 1".

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A 500mb trough within the northwesterly flow will pivot southeastward into the Quad State region on Saturday. Lift and moisture should be sufficient for at least some isolated shower development. Could see initial activity develop late tonight in our north, most likely in the form of sprinkles. Looks like some very weak instability develops tomorrow to support at least a low chance at a few storms. While anywhere east of the Mississippi River has a chance of a shower tomorrow, most likely chance for anything resides in the Evansville Tri-state region.

As the trough pivots east, surface high pressure will move across the mid Mississippi Valley Saturday night. 850mb temps around 0C will slide across the Ohio Valley behind the trough passage. Light winds and clear skies will support ideal radiational cooling conditions. Current guidance does suggest about a 50-60% chance at temperatures dropping below 40 Sunday morning, particularly for our northern and eastern counties. LREF probabilities drop off quite quickly though with only about a 15-20% chance at lows falling to 36 or lower, which is generally the magic threshold for frost formation. Will see how this trends over the next 24 hours to see if probabilities increase.

A more unsettled pattern sets up early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday into Tuesday night. We may see initial activity across our north Sunday night into Monday, as a weak frontal boundary sinks south towards our area. If we can get convection to develop Monday afternoon and evening, the parameter space in place could support a few stronger storms. LREF probabilities of MUCAPE of at least 500 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 30 kts is around 50-60% across southern Illinois. CSU-MLP severe probs are focused to our north and west though, which seems the most likely outcome.

The main front and mid level wave move through starting late Monday night and continuing through Tuesday night. Thus our PoPs peak during this time period in the 60-80% range. Guidance is really struggling to generate much in the way of substantial instability Tuesday due to lingering activity and ample cloud cover earlier in the day. So while we have the lift and wind shear in place, LREF probabilities of observing MUCAPE of 500 j/kg is only 20%. Machine learning does have broad brush 5% severe probs, but currently don't really see much to get excited about. Additional waves of rain are possible on Wednesday, but that will come down to how far south the boundary ends up being by then.

Temperatures largely remain at or below normal through the period, with the exception being Monday when we reach near 80 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Isolated to scattered showers possible between 15-22Z at MVN,EVV, and OWB but confidence is low enough to only include as VCSH. An isolated rumble of thunder is not out of the question, but chances are too low to include. Light and variable winds overnight will come north to northwest at 5-10 kts tomorrow.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.