textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average high temperatures will impact the area through Wednesday. Most locations will near 10 degrees above the climatological normal.

- A cold front will advance Wednesday night, dropping temperatures significantly through the rest of the week.

- Some precipitation is possible Wednesday evening, and possibly into early Thursday morning. A few areas of thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

UPDATE

Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1103 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A rather uninteresting synoptic framework has been presented for analysis through Wednesday morning. The rest of today and Tuesday will see primarily clear, sunny, and warmer-than-usual temperatures for this time of year. Upper 60's will dominate the region, with portions of SE MO likely to surpass 70. Low south- southeasterly winds at around 5 knots will contribute to the nice weather today. Other than the pleasant temperatures, daytime cloud cover will remain close to 0%, though nighttime will bring some clouds back. Patchy fog will once again be possible in the early morning hours Tuesday, quickly eroding with plentiful sunshine.

Wednesday appears to be the most eventful day of the week, at least meteorologically speaking. A positively (trending neutrally) tilted 250 hPa trough will pass through during the evening, and a fairly significant cold front will concurrently push through the CWA. Diverse model guidance seems to agree with placement, timing, and orientation of this front. Plenty of lift is expected from this front, noted by a sharp Theta-e gradient, however, lacking moisture throughout the column will seriously inhibit precipitation during this FROPA, especially in the western and central portions of the coverage area. That being said, dew points are trending upwards in subsequent model runs since 0z, with a few areas progged at 55-57 degrees. SBCAPE is plentiful for a stronger thunderstorm or two, and with 0-3km shear at around 30 knots, strong winds associated with linear systems could occur. The main area of interest appears to be east of Kentucky Lake for our scope, extending from far S IN, down to S central KY. As time progresses, and moisture return is solidified in the forecast, a more concrete area of convective initiation will be established. Severe risk remains low, but plan on the chance of a storm or two.

Behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to fall significantly, with area-wide highs being 5 to 15 degrees below average through early next week. In comparison to Wednesday's high temperatures in the low 70s, Thursday will see highs in the low 50s, and Friday even cooler in the high 40s. This is all thanks to a strong upper-level low situated solidly over the Great Lakes, whose frigid contents are being accelerated at a forecasted 130 knots on the leeward side of a strong ridge, leading to strong cold air advection. As this moves out of the way, some relief is expected by Sunday, as mid to upper 50s temperatures largely return. No additional precipitation is expected during this Thursday to Sunday period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions remain through the evening as skies continue to be clear and winds stay light. Some low clouds are possible in the far south tonight, with fog development possible in areas which received fog early morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.