textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures nudge slightly above normal (50s) over the weekend, and continue with above normal temperatures (60s) through next week including the potential for 70s Wednesday.

- There is a 50-80% chance we will see at least 1" of rainfall this weekend, and a 15-60% chance amounts may exceed 2", with the lower totals more likely to occur in northeastern portions of the Quad State and the higher totals more likely to occur in the southwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Upper-level troughing continues to our east with a ridge axis near the Front Range, with northwesterly flow aloft locally. Surface high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes, helping keep conditions dry despite the approach of a band of mid-level vorticity from the northwest. Lows near 30 this morning warm up to the upper 50s to near 60 today.

The main event continues to be the weekend rain. At this time there's two components to our weekend rain event, both part of an upper-level trough out west. One area of low pressure is producing precipitation in the Great Basin-Rockies (still no snow for Salt Lake City, however), while the other is off of Baja California in the base of the trough. Models show this southern disturbance surging northeastward and the mid-level vorticity associated with it takes the lead lifting northeastward through the Four Corners region Friday night into KS/OK Saturday with the low pressure center. Lagging just behind it, the Great Basin system sinks towards the base of the trough and does a better job of strengthening over Texas, with models shifting the low pressure center towards this more organized core and keeps this low tracking across the Mid-South or Deep South Sunday. Even the Canadian ensemble, which had been the northernmost consistently, is now fully on board with this southern track.

Rain arrives to SEMO late tonight with coverage increasing through the day Saturday. Saturday daytime precipitation will largely come from Gulf moisture interacting with the leading instability region (the Pacific low) which will be in the process of weakening and giving way to the trailing developing low pressure center. As a result, models disagree on how quickly precipitation starts to fizzle out in the north with some models producing a swath of 1+ inch rainfall across areas even further north across Central Illinois while other models have rainfall amounts drop off between Central Missouri and the I-64 corridor. With the developing low tracking across the Mid-South, Saturday night into Sunday will most likely have higher rainfall totals in the southern portions of the Quad State. Overall, there are 50-85% odds of at least an inch of rain and 15-60% odds of 2+ inches (lowest odds near Evansville/Mount Vernon IL, highest odds near Poplar Bluff). The low pressure center is far enough south to make thunder very unlikely even in southern portions of the Quad State. Rainfall could be heavy at times considering the couple year return interval moisture levels but, with ongoing drought and rain being spread out over 24-36hrs, flooding potential would be fairly limited. Rains will help with the developing drought conditions.

Dry weather moves in early next week as ridging moves over the area, with temperatures continuing to warm as winds shift back to southerly as low pressure moves across northern portions of the country. The northern low reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday is unlikely to result in showers for the Quad State, while the following system a bit further south is responsible for low end late week PoPs.

Temperatures will generally be above normal through the forecast period. Highs in the 50s this weekend rise to the 60s early next week and peak around 70 on Wednesday. Lows near 30 this morning trend higher as moisture moves in, staying in the mid-40s Saturday night, briefly lowering a few degrees Sunday night, before rising to the 50s Tuesday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure nearby will lead to light and variable winds tonight. As the surface high departs further to our east, winds become SSE on Friday and increase to around 6-9 kts. SCT mid and high cloud tonight will generally give way to mainly SKC conditions on Friday. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase from the west tomorrow night ahead of an approaching system on Saturday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.