textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above normal through Friday before trending cooler on Saturday. More seasonable temperatures will return for early next week, but lows in the 30s Monday morning will cause a 40-60% chance of patchy frost.

- There is a 60-80% chance wind gusts will reach Wind Advisory criteria of 40 mph on Thursday in portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and the Kentucky Purchase. Wind gusts between at least 30-40 mph are expected across the entire region.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances begin today and continue through Saturday. A few severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado are all possible. Total rainfall between 1-2 inches is expected on average.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A mild start to the morning as temperatures remain 15-20 degrees above normal through Friday. The first round of rain chances will impact the FA today, as the CAMs show a cold front pushing far enough south for showers and thunderstorms to reach mainly the I-64 corridor late this morning into the afternoon. Although instability and low-level lapse rates are fairly robust on the RAP13, wind shear will be lacking for severe weather. A lull then occurs tonight into Thursday morning as the front lifts back north and a warm sector regime prevails.

Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening will feature a 70-80% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather risk has increased with SPC's D1 marginal (level 1/5) covering a large portion of the FA. The trend on both the GFS/ECMWF has been for a more negatively tilted 500 mb shortwave trough that will enhance the lift needed for organized convection to develop. Combined with the right entrance region of a modest upper-level jet and a 50 kt LLJ, the kinematics are certainly supportive. Given MLCAPE of 700-1000 J/kg, low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km and sfc-1km SRH values of 200 m2/s2, the main concern is isolated severe supercells that will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado.

Despite the marginal severe risk, the synoptic gradient winds outside of thunderstorms may end up being more impactful due to the limited storm coverage. There is a 60-80% chance wind gusts reach Wind Advisory criteria of 40 mph across portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and the Kentucky Purchase. Wind gusts between at least 30-40 mph are expected for the entire FA, especially during Thursday afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into Friday morning, but NBM's PoPs seem a bit high given the better forcing will be departing. Drier conditions then return for Friday afternoon into Friday evening as another lull between disturbances occurs.

With that said, a more potent cold front associated with a closed 500 mb low remains on track to arrive Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon with a 80-90% chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. There still remains uncertainty if the parameters will come together for another low end severe weather risk, but the ML model guidance continues to hint at this potential. The GFS/ECMWF have both trended faster with the cold front sweeping through Saturday night. Drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures are then expected Sunday through early next week. The one caveat is Monday morning when the NBM low are progged in the 30s. Due to the faster timing, the pressure gradient will now be much weaker with sfc high pressure building in, supporting a 40-60% chance of patchy frost.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 959 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

High clouds will thicken and lower (but remain VFR) overnight through the day Wednesday as a front sags southward towards the area. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers invof MVN and EVV after 15-18z through 21-24z. Handled this with a mix of PROB30 and VCSH groups for now. SW gradient winds will relax to around 5-10 kts overnight, then pick up after daybreak, sustained at 10-14 kts with gusts of 18-22 kts through the afternoon. Wind will relax after 00z Thursday and back slight to the S to SE.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.