textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous, record-breaking late season heat and humidity will continue the next several days. A Heat Advisory is now effect through Saturday evening for the entire region.

- Isolated heat-of-the-day pop-up storms cannot be ruled out today and Thursday near and north of Interstate 64.

- Cooler, less humid conditions will arrive early next week, along the the return of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Our late-season heat wave is underway and looks to continue through the end of the week. The only major change to the forecast is to extend the ongoing Heat Advisory for the entire region through 7 PM CDT Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to trend slower with breaking down the very stout H5 ridge over the region, so heat index values at Heat Advisory criteria will continue an extra day.

We again want to emphasize that while the air temperatures forecast are not unheard of for the latter half of September, the humidity and heat index values are very anomalous. Our concern for heat- related health impacts is high due to the numerous outdoor fall season events that will be impacted by this heat wave. We urge anyone planning to participate in prolonged outdoor activities to follow heat safety guidelines whenever possible or consider delaying them until the cooler portions of the day in the early morning or evening hours.

Ensemble guidance continues to show H5 heights around 596-600 dm and 850mb temperatures peaking around 19-22C each afternoon through at least Friday. Both values are near the climatological maximum values for the time of year. This will yield maximum temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s and minimum temperatures in the lower to middle 70s during this time. Both the forecast high and low temperatures will approach or break record hot/warm values this week. See the Climate section below for more details.

Dew point temperatures will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s today and Thursday. Combined with the heat, peak heat index values will reach 103-109. On Friday, dew point temperatures will draw down into the middle to upper 60s, yielding slightly lower heat index values. On Saturday, dew point temperatures will draw down further into the lower to middle 60s. However, with air temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s, peak heat index values will still climb over 100, which is why the Heat Advisory has been extended through Saturday evening.

We do have small PoPs in the forecast today and Thursday, mainly north of I-64. This is due to potential forcing from remnant outflow boundaries from convection passing to the north. However, these storms will not provide much relief from the heat.

The H5 ridge will finally begin to break down early next week, but high temperatures will still reach the lower to middle 90s on Sunday. However, there is better model agreement that some noticeable relief from the heat will arrive Monday into Tuesday as the ridge retreats to the west and a frontal boundary attempts to move south through the area. This will yield high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday and middle to upper 80s on Tuesday. Additionally, there may be enough moisture and forcing from the cold front to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The TAFs are VFR. SCT diurnal CU will cloud bases around 8kft will develop this morning through the afternoon, diminishing to high cirrus clouds tonight. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm invof MVN, but confidence was too low to include at this time. Light S wind winds will increase from the SW around 5-10 kts through the afternoon, relaxing to 3-5 kts from the S tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Record high temperatures for Wednesday, Sep 16: CGI: 99 (2019) MDH: 101 (1927) EVV: 97 (1897) PAH: 97 (2019) POF: 101 (1927)

Record high temperatures for Thursday, Sep 17: CGI: 96 (2019) MDH: 102 (1927) EVV: 96 (1927) PAH: 98 (1939) POF: 101 (1927)

Record high temperatures for Friday, Sep 18: CGI: 96 (2025) MDH: 98 (1925) EVV: 99 (1908) PAH: 97 (1953) POF: 97 (1931)

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081- 082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.