textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Several chances for rain are in the forecast today and into next week. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday evening for most of the region. Daily high temperatures trend more into the lower 90s through early next week with heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

- Northerly flow may briefly cause moderate unhealthy air quality conditions across the far north on Sunday while the latter half of next week may pose a more impactful risk due to the ongoing Northwestern Ontario wildfire smoke.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This morning, a southward moving cold front extends from northern Missouri east into the Ohio Valley. This is occurring beneath a northwest flow pattern aloft as a trough sits to the northeast. Strong ridging remains locked in place across the Rockies and four corners. The front will continue to push south today as high pressure becomes established across the Great Lakes. While upper forcing is weak, showers and storms are expected to develop focused by the front later this morning and into the afternoon. Chances for showers and storms continue into Monday associated with the weakening front nearly stalled out across the Quad State region.

Another front pushes through the region on Tuesday in response to a shortwave trough traversing the Great Lakes. This front is advertised to bring another round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear is stronger this time associated with greater mid/upper level flow to the north. This will be something to watch as we get closer to Tuesday. Still some questions on how this evolves and how much convection we actually see. The area dries out Wednesday behind the front while high pressure settles to the north. Drier and much cooler conditions continue until at least Thursday before another upper level disturbance may bring chances for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.

The heat and humidity is set to continue into next week. The advisory remains for much of the area with the exception of far northeast where temperatures should be cooler behind the front. The warmest day of the week will be on Tuesday. Highs will rise well into the 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s or higher will result in heat indices near or above 110 degrees. Wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires will likely become an issue at times through next week. In fact, it may become more widespread across the Quad State toward the middle to end of next week with a more northerly component to the wind aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Scattered showers and storms continue to clear the area this evening with very little impact to the terminals. Skies should go clear overnight with light winds. A front is sagging south through the area and will stall across the area tomorrow. This will serve as a focus for storm development tomorrow afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080>082- 084>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>017-021-022.