textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures and humidity levels will start feeling more like summer-time this weekend into early next week. Highs will average close to 10 degrees above normal with lots of mid to upper 80s (possibly even pushing 90 early next week).

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are modest (30-50%) Friday and Saturday, mainly across the northern half of the area.

- More widespread chances (50-70%) for showers and storms are slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. The probability to receive at least 1" of rain is around 50-60% through next Wednesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface high pressure over the region today is providing one final day of stunning spring weather. As the high pushes off to the east tonight, a weak disturbance aloft will slide east into Illinois Friday morning. This will lead to an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms drifting into our northern counties after 10z Friday morning. Additional widely scattered activity may develop in the afternoon, but confidence in that is less certain. Again should be confined to areas generally north of the Ohio River.

Another shortwave moves into the Midwest on Saturday, offering another potential for some showers and thunderstorms. Overall moisture in the column isn't that impressive though, so while some rain is possible it will be quite hit or miss and overall amounts looks to be rather light.

Southwesterly flow strengthens on Sunday as upper level ridging takes shape across the southeast U.S. This will allow deeper moisture to surge into the region ahead of a cold front modeled to sink southeast towards our area sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Dewpoints surge into the mid 60s to low 70s making it feel more like early Summer. Can't rule out some strong to severe storms during this time period, with Tuesday probably offering the best shot at the moment. The overall parameter space continues to hone in on areas to our north and west for the highest severe probabilities though. There is a pretty good chance to receive at least 1" of rain through next Wednesday (50-60% chance). This would certainly help prevent drought conditions from worsening, even if it doesn't really improve them much. The chance at observing 2" or more is still quite low, only about 15-20%.

Temperatures will warm above normal starting tomorrow and primarily remain that way through the rest of the period. Still quite a bit of spread regarding next Wednesday and Thursday though with highs potentially ranging anywhere from the mid 70s to low-mid 80s. NBM continues to be quite a bit warmer than the LREF. For instance it suggests a high likelihood (60-90%) at reaching 90 on Monday compared to only a 30-50% chance on the LREF.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface high pressure shifts east tonight, allowing return flow southerlies tmrw, including some diurnal gustiness. Time/height cross sections reveal top-down moistening within the column as a short wave ripple of energy shoots across MO/IL. SCT-BKN VFR mid-high level bases come into play, and we've included a PROB30 for light showers associated with its track as far south as KMVN tmrw am.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.