textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Record warmth and elevated humidity levels will continue this afternoon.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Wednesday through Thursday morning. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue on Thursday, with the best chances along the I-64 corridor. - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures Friday into next weekend, followed by another warmup early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Stout and expanding H5 ridging and surface high pressure over the southeast CONUS continue to advect very warm temperatures and elevated humidity levels into the region. Despite some mid- level cloud cover, temperatures will approach or exceed record levels this afternoon. Increasing dew point temperatures into the 60s will yield peak heat index values around the middle to upper 90s, which may cause some heat related impacts. SPS for heat-related impacts remains in effect for the western half of the region until 22z.

Tonight, convection will develop over the southern Great Plains and Ozarks as a surface low develops and moves northeast through the Midwest along a frontal boundary positioned north and west of the area. Lingering convection will move through the region Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Depending on how much clearing we week, development is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out if this occurred due to the presence of modest 0-6 km shear and instability. Any strong storms that do develop would pose a damaging wind risk. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the entire forecast area for this potential.

Thursday may see a bit of a lull for areas south of I-64 as the frontal boundary lifts north of the region. Clouds will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, but dew point temperatures will be very muggy by mid-October standards in the lower to middle 70s. Thursday night into Friday morning, the cold front will sweep through the region as a deep H5 ridge moves through the northern tier of the CONUS. Cannot rule out a strongly-forced segment of strong/gusty storms along the leading edge of the front, especially along I-64, where moisture and instability will be highest. SPC's Day 3 outlook does have another marginal risk that clips this area. Rainfall totals for the Wednesday-Thursday period look pretty modest, generally about 0.25-0.75".

Friday through next weekend will see much cooler conditions and a return to dry weather. Gradient winds will be quiet gusty (gusts up to 25-35 mph) on Friday following the frontal passage, and this could lead to elevated fire danger for areas that miss out on wetting rains in the next two days. Additionally, the first widespread frosts of the season are possible Saturday morning and especially Sunday morning. However, the cooldown will be short-lived, as H5 ridging will increase over the region early next week, and high temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees above normal by next Monday-Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

FEW-SCT diurnal CU with steady SW winds will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will be around 6-12 kts with gusts up to 14-18 kts possible through 00z. Around 10-15z, a decaying complex of showers and isolated storms will move from NE to SE across the area, with brief MVFR cig/vsby and TSRA impacts through the rest of the forecast period. Winds will become light overnight, then increase from the W-SW around 4-8 kts after 12z Wednesday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.