textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures are forecast this week. Several high temperatures and record warm minimum temperature records will be tied or broken.

- The next good chance (50-80%) of widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts will mostly likely range between 0.25-0.75".

- Another good chance (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Again, rainfall amounts will most likely range between 0.25-0.75" for this event.

UPDATE

Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The region will be under a weakly-forced open warm sector with stout southeast CONUS ridging keeping organized disturbances at bay today through Wednesday. Isolated WAA showers and thunderstorms are possible anytime during the period, but the great majority of the region will stay dry or see very minor rainfall amounts. Temperatures at 850mb will be 14-17C, yielding high temperatures in the low to mid 80s today, and the middle to upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower to middle 60s as well. Record highs (both of maximum temperatures and warm minimum temperatures) are likely, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

A transition to a more active, but still very warm, period of weather begins Wednesday evening. The H5 ridging will briefly break down, and a surface front will attempt to move into the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, pushing across the region during the overnight hours. SPC has removed the slight risk due to the unfavorable timing for organized convection. However, welcome rain is likely, with the latest NBM ensemble guidance showing about 0.25-0.75" of precipitation by Thursday afternoon over the region.

The associated cold front will retreat to the north Thursday afternoon and the H5 ridge intensifies. As 850mb temperatures again warm into the 15-18C range, high temperatures will soar into the upper 80s on Friday. These values may actually be underdone, as the NBM ensemble shows a 50-80% chance of temperatures reaching 90F on Friday in west KY, and a 40-60% chance elsewhere.

The persistent ridging over the southeast CONUS will break down again (perhaps for a more extended period) Saturday into next weekend. Another system will pass through the Central Plains and Midwest, and an associated surface front will pass through the region Saturday afternoon and evening. This will bring another good chance of showers and thunderstorms, and the latest NBM ensemble guidance forecasts another 0.25-0.75" of needed rain by Sunday morning. Following this frontal passage, temperatures on Sunday will cool back to near or slightly below normal values. At this time, low temperatures Sunday night look to stay above 40F, which would not result in any frost concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR to low VFR cigs will impact the terminals this morning before lifting to VFR across the area by this afternoon through the rest of the forecast period. Rain shower activity will be confined to locations along the KY/TN border and south. Winds will remain breeze from the S to SW, sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon before relaxing to around 7-12 kts after 00z Tuesday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.