textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous high and warm minimum temperature records will be broken through the weekend. Some locations may hit 70 every day through Sunday, while others reach well into the 60s.

- Persistent cloud cover with periods of drizzle or light rain will continue to plague much of the region on Christmas Day and possibly through Friday in portions of the Evansville Tri State and west KY. - A strong cold front will bring an abrupt end to the warmth Sunday night. Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely Sunday, a few of which could be strong.

- A brief blast of cold air arrives early next week with highs struggling to reach freezing and lows falling into the upper teens to lower 20s.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Dense fog has already developed across the Evansville Tri-State region into northwest Kentucky. Model guidance shows this mainly being an issue this evening, and as the frontal boundary lifts northward, the fog will diminish after 06z. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for this area until 06z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A warm front is lifting north across our cwa this afternoon, with persistent low level stratus to the north of the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s across the southwest 1/3 of the region. Southerly winds tonight should help negate widespread dense fog formation. However, think we may still have at least some patchy fog to contend with. A weak disturbance may provide enough lift to generate some drizzle or very light showers from late tonight through Christmas Day, particularly across the north half of the region. Sunshine will be hard to come by with plenty of low level moisture remaining, but that won't stop temperatures from reaching close to record levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s yet again.

Record highs are a bit lower on Friday, and we may see more breaks in the clouds (especially west half) to boost temperatures a few degrees warmer than Christmas. A system will move east across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday. Precipitation with this should largely stay north of our area but can't rule out some light showers in our northeastern and eastern counties. The warmth continues into the weekend, although some guidance has trended cooler for Saturday. NBM is still near 70 but the AI models in particular suggest only low 60s instead due to a bit cooler airmass penetrating southward behind the Friday system.

A strong cold front will make passage across the region later in the weekend, accompanied by widespread rain along with a few thunderstorms. NBM has finally latched onto the thunder potential. There remains some uncertainty on just how much instability is realized, but seems plausible to think at least a few hundred joules would be given the degree of low level moisture (low 60 dewpoints) combined with temperatures near 70. CSU-MLP depicts a broad 5% area for severe storm potential. There is some concern that much of the precipitation could be post frontal, lending to an elevated nature to the convection. However, given the extreme warmth and moisture ahead of it, wouldn't be surprised to see a few strong to severe storms develop along it. Latest trends continue to be slower with the timing, suggesting more of a late Sunday afternoon or evening potential at this time.

Significantly colder air will surge south into the Quad State Sunday night into Monday, lingering into Tuesday before we moderate mid next week. Temperatures Tuesday morning may be roughly 50 degrees colder than high temperatures Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The TAFs remain challenging this evening with low cigs and patchy fog across the northern terminals. Drier air filters in tonight and may clip KMVN while KEVV/KOWB likely remain saturated with LIFR/IFR conditions. Leaned more aggressive with the low cigs returning across all terminals Thursday morning given the high HREF probabilities with patchy fog especially over SEMO. Gradual improvement is expected during the day with a return to at least IFR/MVFR conditions by the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ077-078- 083-087-091. MO...None. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KYZ010- 013>016-018>021.