textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Very mild and mostly cloudy conditions are forecast today through Thursday, with temperatures rising 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A small chance (10-20%) of light rain is possible tonight north of the Ohio River.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (35-65% coverage) are forecast Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible, particularly in the Evansville Tri-State Region.

- Temperatures will cool back to typical late February values beginning this weekend, with a chance (20-40%) of light rain or a light rain/snow mix possible on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Surface high pressure that was centered over the region on Monday has shifted east of the region today. The southerly return flow is advecting increasing warmth and moisture into the region. Patchy fog is possible this morning as the boundary layer saturates under an inversion, and some locally dense fog cannot be ruled out in the MO Delta/Bootheel and adjacent areas in far S IL and far W KY.

Another mild but fairly cloudy day is expected across the region, as most model soundings show a saturated inversion in the 900-800 mb layer through the daytime hours. High temperatures will still reach the upper 50s to middle 60s. Winds will be become breezy at times from the south this afternoon as a deepening surface low passes across the Upper Midwest. Gusts up to 20-25 mph are expected along and west of the Mississippi River.

Tonight, a mainly dry cold front associated the disturbance to the north will pass through the region. This will bring a wind shift to the southwest and gusts of 25-30 mph through late tonight. Cannot rule out some isolated light rain (10-20% chance) north of the Ohio River, but the great majority of the area will stay dry.

For Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will soar to near record high levels as very strong WAA commences in response to a deep 990 mb surface low across the northern Great Lakes. As 850 mph temperatures rise to 8-10C (around the 90-95th percentiles), high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s both days, with overnight lows only falling into the lower to middle 50s. Breezy gradient wind gusts of 20-30 mph from the S/SW are expected Thursday. Dew point temperatures will also rise into the lower to middle 50s on Wednesday and will be in the middle to upper 50s by Thursday afternoon.

Attention turns to a disturbance that will bring scattered to numerous (35-65% coverage) showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The driver for this will be another surface low that will develop across OK/KS on Wednesday and deepen to around 989 mb as is moves NE to IL/WI by Thursday evening. WAA-driven showers are possible Thursday morning, but convective development occur Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching cold front. The very mild temperatures and elevated dew point dew point values will allow for a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE to develop in a highly sheared environment, which will make the potential for some strong or severe thunderstorms a concern.

We are getting into the range where the details where we can suss out some of the contours of the sub-synotpic environment. At the mid-levels, forcing will be more subtle than typically seen with these cold severe setups, more of a wavy zonal H5 flow regime than a deep shortwave trough. This could be a potentially limiting factor for severe thunderstorm coverage, as there is not much in the way of H5 height falls to enhance mid- level lapse rates. Some of the deterministic guidance like the 17/00z ECMWF does show a bit more in the way mid-level troughing, so this could change a bit over the next 48 hours.

Additionally, there has been an uptick with the focus of the best severe thunderstorm environment and thunderstorm coverage developing across the Wabash Valley and EVV Tri-State and points to the east. Other guidance like the 17/00z CIPS analog guidance and various machine learning tools are showing this as well. Overall, we may be dealing with a mixed-mode convective event with a few low-topped supercells and strong/severe line segments. This would mean tornadoes and damaging winds would be the main threats, but small hail cannot be rule out either.

Overall, concern is growing for at least some kind of severe weather impacts Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly in the Wabash Valley and Evansville Tri-State, with lower confidence further south and west. SPC is in pretty good agreement, and has placed a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for southern IL, southern IN, and northwest and northern KY, with a Marginal Risk around that zone that covers the entire CWA east of the POF area.

Following the passage of the trailing cold front, temperatures will begin to cool back to typical late February beginning Friday. By this weekend into early next week, temperatures will be near or even tick below normal values. Ensemble guidance has come into better agreement that a secondary cold front will move through the area on Saturday, bringing a chance (20-40%) of light rain or even a light rain/snow mix on Saturday. No impactful snow accumulations are expected, but it will be quite change compared to the warmth expected over the next 72 hours.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low stratus is the main concern with cigs gradually lifting to MVFR across the western terminals by this evening. A stray rain shower/sprinkle is possible overnight, but the probability is only 15-20% for any measurable precipitation. Cigs lower again towards the end of the TAF period with a 70-80% chance of IFR conditions at KCGI/KPAH. South winds between 10-16 kts will gusts to around 25 kts tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.