textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue with widespread highs in the lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours, will be 30% to 60% across the entire area Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, higher chances of 40% to 70% will be east of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark Foothills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With broad high pressure ridging remaining across most of the country, a meandering Mid-South low pressure system will continue to provide daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Following yesterday's rainfall, a few spots, especially in climatologically favored spots, can see some drops in visibility early this morning. With the low pressure drifting northward, the entire Quad State will see scattered showers and storms this afternoon. A front across the midwest drifts near the northeastern edge of the CWA Friday as a shortwave trough moves through Friday evening, focusing precip chances Friday near the Evansville Tri-State. Precip chances again focus in the east Saturday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Each of these days, the best chances for storms will be in the afternoon with peak heating and good CAPE values. However, shear will continue to be lacking, and the resulting pulse convection is unlikely to produce any severe weather, though some gusty (generally sub-severe) downdrafts are possible. Precipitable water values above 2 inches will allow for locally heavy rain, but a lack of training storms should keep flooding issues mostly out of the picture (perhaps an advisory level nuisance flood or two).

While a brief wind shift is possible Saturday night, winds Sunday bring in air from the Southern Plains and keep temperatures warm. Highs in the lower 90s are possible each day Saturday through Tuesday. Heat indices in the lower triple digits are likely Saturday and can linger at least in parts of the CWA through early week depending on how well we retain moisture as dry weather moves in for Monday. Ridging focuses in the Central/Southern Plains early next week but a cold front trailing off a Canadian system could drop highs to the 80s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Primary concern overnight will be fog development, particularly across southeast MO and far southern IL where the heaviest rain fell today. IFR or lower cloud bases may also develop for a short period early morning, particularly around KCGI and KPAH. Additional scattered showers and storms are likely to develop by midday through the afternoon on Thursday, and this time could impact the northeastern terminals as well. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with any convection.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.