textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm remains on track to impact the entire region late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Heavy snowfall mixed with sleet and freezing rain will make travel nearly impossible with a 85-95% chance of exceeding winter storm warning criteria across the entire quad-state. Probabilities remain above 70-80% for exceeding 8 inches of snow along an axis between Popular Bluff and Evansville. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect.

- A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain over far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky near the Tennessee border will result in a sharp gradient with reduced snowfall totals. There is a 30-50% chance of ice accretion exceeding a tenth of an inch.

- Prolong sub freezing temperatures and intervals of dangerous cold wind chills begins this evening and will continue through all of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the first round of dangerous wind chills that covers this evening through midday Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A cold front will sweep across the region today with gusty gradient winds as a 1050 mb sfc high pressure building southeast from the Dakotas will support a very dry column. Dangerous wind chills between -2 to -12 are expected as a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect this evening through midday Saturday. Adjusted the end time to account for a large gap until Sunday night despite sub freezing temperatures with highs struggling to rise above 20 degrees. A few counties in far western SEMO could reach criteria again late Saturday night into Sunday morning locally, but did not feel the spatial coverage is large enough to justify maintaining the advisory for the entire weekend that covers the whole PAH CWA.

The cold air will set the stage for major winter storm impacts this weekend with the potential for record heavy snowfall, along with some sleet and freezing rain. GOES-16 water vapor imagery now shows energy moving onshore over Oregon that will eject downstream and eventually phase with additional energy over Canada on Sunday. At the jet stream level, the right entrance region of a 150+ kt jet max will provide synoptic-scale forcing for ascent Saturday morning. Combined with 700 mb WAA and FGEN, the first round of fluffy dry snow will spread across the entire region. Snow will then transition into a heavier wet snow in the afternoon and mix with sleet and freezing rain over western Kentucky as a warm nose around 850 mb begins to advect northward. 12:1 to 15:1 SLRs in the morning decrease in the afternoon as the best lift is focused below the DGZ, favoring more riming with the max wet bulb temperature aloft moving closer to 0c.

By Saturday evening, model guidance is in good agreement in showing a lull in precipitation with the loss of saturation at the DGZ when light freezing drizzle or intermittent ice pellets will become probable. The left exit region associated with a secondary jet max over the Mississippi approaches late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon when the greatest lift will be present. Combined with an increase in frontogenetic forcing and CAA that will be associated with a deepening sfc low pressure over Alabama, any wintry mix will quickly transition back to all snow due to dynamic cooling that will occur from deformation banding. This is when snowfall rates have the greatest potential to overachieve due to aggregation with a deep isothermal layer between -2 to -5C, supporting higher SLRs.

There still remains uncertainty on how far north sleet will reach as the current NBM forecast has it along the Ohio River in the Kentucky Purchase where both the 0z EC/CMC have been the most consistent with 850 mb temps near 0C. Meanwhile, the NAM remains the most amplified with the influx of warm air aloft that would create a bigger concern for freezing rain while the GFS is colder with mostly snow further south due to energy ejecting slower out of Texas Sunday morning. The axis of heaviest snowfall is now at a 70-80% probability of exceeding 8 inches of snow while a foot or more drops down to 40-50%. While there is the potential for sleet and freezing rain to reduce totals further in some areas, the wintry mix would be just as impactful if not worse that will make travel nearly impossible for most of the weekend. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect tonight through Sunday.

The big story Sunday night through Tuesday morning will be even more dangerous wind chill values between -5 to -15 degrees. The NBM now keeps most of the FA below 32 degrees for the entire week with only a 50-60% chance of rising above freezing on Tuesday across far western portions of SEMO as adjustments continue to account for the upcoming snowpack. With persistent troughing that continues through the latter half of the week, there will be little relief from the cold with the potential for another interval of cold weather headlines.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The main concern will be gusty northerly winds over 20 kts that will persist at terminals KPAH/KCGI tonight. High level clouds gradually begin to lower after Midnight as a major winter storm begins to approach the region. The probability for light snow remains below 30% until the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM CST Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM CST Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to 1 PM CST /2 PM EST/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. Winter Storm Warning from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM CST Saturday for KYZ001>022. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.