textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms return today and continue through next week. Saturday will be the driest day with only a 20-30% chance of an isolated thundershower.

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather today across mainly the far southeast Kentucky Pennyrile. A weak spin up tornado and isolated damaging winds is the main concern late this afternoon into the evening.

- Total rainfall between 1-3 inches is forecast over the next week, with a 20-40% chance of exceeding 3 inches locally where multiple rounds of storms occur. Localized minor nuisance flooding is possible, especially today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Unsettled weather will be quick to return today as a warm front associated with a weak area of low pressure lifts north. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms will spread across the FA this morning and continue through the afternoon. SPC maintains a marginal risk in their D1 convective outlook over mainly the far southeast Kentucky Pennyrile where winds become more backed at the sfc. The main concern is the potential for a weak spin up tornado and isolated damaging winds given 15-25 kts of sfc-1km shear, 150-200 m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH, and 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Late this afternoon into the evening will be the period of greatest concern when some of the CAMs show a few low-topped supercells. Given PWAT's in the 90-95th percentile on the NAEFS ESAT, localized minor nuisance flooding will also be possible due to torrential downpours.

The weekend will start off drier with only a 20-30% chance of an isolated thundershower on Saturday. Higher probabilities arrive in the 50-60% range Saturday night into Sunday as daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through next Thursday, with rain chances peaking in the afternoon. Not seeing a strong signal for severe weather on any given day, but the latter half of next week may be the period to monitor the most as a more potent mid- level disturbance approaches. Total rainfall between 1-3 inches is likely by next Thursday with a 20-40% chance of exceeding 3 inches locally where multiple rounds of convection occurs.

High temps today in the 70s rebound back into the 80s this weekend, gradually trending into the mid-80s by the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR/IFR cloud cover will linger at each terminal through this TAF issuance. The next disturbance will pass through the area Friday afternoon, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms. Visibilities may be briefly reduced as the heaviest storms pass. Winds are expected to remain fairly light, generally less than 10 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.