textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated wildfire danger is expected today, along with high temperatures near record values.

- A cold front will sag into the region tonight and early Monday morning, bringing a 40-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and rainfall amounts of 0.05-0.15" in most areas.

- After more near record warmth Tuesday and Wednesday, another cold front will bring a good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A few storms late Wednesday night could be strong to severe.

- More chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Strong H5 ridging over the southeast CONUS will expand over the region today, with surface high pressure of the Eastern Seaboard advection warm into the region. High temperatures will soar to the middle to upper 80s, near or exceeding record values. With limited moisture return, and RH values will fall to 25-35%. Combined with breezy S winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph and ongoing drought conditions, wildfire danger will be elevated this afternoon. Coordinated with neighboring offices to issue a Special Weather Statement for the fire danger.

Tonight, a weakening cold front will approach the region from the NW, but will struggle as it encounters the thermal ridging. Despite this, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening through early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts will be light, however, mainly 0.05-0.15" in most areas that see precipitation.

The cold front will wash out and lift back to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, with a small chance of WAA showers possible both days. Wednesday night into Thursday, the H5 ridging will begin to break down, and a couple of cold fronts with a bit better upper-level support will move into the area, first late Wednesday night and again on Saturday. Timing for any risk of severe weather is coming into better focus, and it looks to be very late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Given the relative lull in instability, the severe risk does not appear too impressive, but will be maximized over southeast MO and southwest IL where SPC has maintained a slight risk. Additional rain chances next weekend will also help with drought relief, but total QPF remains uncertain given the coverage of storms and localized potential for higher rainfall rates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Through this afternoon, high cirrus clouds will thicken and lower (but remaining VFR) ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradient winds will be gusty from the S to SW after 15z, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts, relaxing slightly after 00z Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area after 06z. Have introduced PROB30 groups to start at all terminals, with FM groups of VFR light SHRA after 09-10z at EVV and OWB.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today. Very strong boundary layer mixing and moisture draw down will result in minimum RH values falling to 25-35% this afternoon, with locally lower values as low as 20% possible in the LBL and southern Pennyrile areas. Winds at 20ft will be steady from the south around 10-20 mph. Ten hour fuel moisture will as low as 8%. Scattered showers will bring a 40-70% chance of wetting rains late tonight and Thursday morning, with the greatest chances in southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY.

CLIMATE

Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Record high temperatures for April 12: PAH: 84 (1941/1977) EVV: 86 (1930/1939) MDH: 88 (1930) POF: 89 (1941) CGI: 85 (1977)

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.