textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this afternoon through late tonight. A few strong to severe storms are possible west of the Mississippi River.

- Dry but mild conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cool down back to typical late fall temperatures is forecast Friday and into early next week, along with continued dry conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

As of early Tuesday morning, a neutral H5 trough exists across the southern Plains with surface low pressure organizing over the western Great Lakes. Expect the trough to become positively- tilted as it progresses eastward, with the surface low moving NW. Strong WAA will bring very mild temperatures (highs in the middle to upper 70s) and elevated dew point temperatures (lower to middle 60s) to the region this afternoon. Additionally, gradient winds will gust to 25-35 mph at times from the south today. With plentiful cloud cover, it will be difficult for higher gusts to mix down, but isolated gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out.

SPC has areas near and west of the Mississippi River under a MRGL risk for its Day 1 outlook. Convection will develop ahead of the surface cold front across the Ozarks this morning and afternoon and gradually march to the east. Storm-relative flow will be more SW to NE, so the overall progression of the precipitation will be pretty slow.

Looking the the latest CAMs, it does appear that there will be some very meager SBCAPE over the MRGL risk area this afternoon, but will quickly dissipate by tonight east of the Mississippi River. The best shear will actually develop during the evening hours after the SBCAPE has dissipated. Cannot rule out a few strong wind gusts mixing down (or even a brief/weak QLCS spin-up tornado), but overall the ingredients for significant severe do not appear to line up. Given the SSW- NNE trajectory of the convective elements within the complex of showers, locally heavy rain from training thunderstorms will also be possible. Some locations could receive a quick 0.75-1.5" of rain under the heaviest activity.

Following the passages of the main complex of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday morning, a few wraparound showers from the surface low over the Great Lakes may impact the EVV Tri-State, followed by a return of dry conditions with clearing skies. Despite the frontal passage, the parent surface low will weaken with zonal mid-level flow returning. This means that temperatures will remain mild (above-normal by 5-10 degrees) Wednesday into Thursday. A couple dry cold fronts will pass through the region Friday and again Sunday, bringing a cool down back to near-normal temperatures for the end of this week into early next week. Temperatures may get cold enough to allow for another frost or potentially a freeze, which would bring what's left of the growing season to an end.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mid-level cloud cover will increase ahead of a complex of showers with embedded thunder that will pass through the area late this afternoon into tonight. Kept things simple for now, with periods of SHRA with VCTS activity and MVFR cigs. Additional modifications are likely as convection timing comes into better focus. Gradient winds will be gusty from the S, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts up to around 25 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.