textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers (20-30% chance) will be possible over much of the region overnight tonight. A 10-20% chance of snow showers is forecast over the southern half of the region Saturday. The stronger showers could bring an isolated dusting on elevated surfaces and in grassy areas, but slick roads are not expected.

- Cold air will come in two surges. The first will come late tonight and Saturday, and the second, stronger surge will come Sunday night into Monday. There is a greater than 90% chance of wind chills remaining below freezing throughout the Quad State from Friday night through Wednesday morning.

- Sub-zero wind chills have a 30-50% chance of occurring along the I-64 corridor Monday morning, and a 20-30% chance Tuesday morning. The entire region has a near certainty of seeing wind chills below 15 degrees each morning from Sunday through Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A band of very light snow is weakening as it pushes through southwest Indiana early this morning. It will be long gone by daybreak. There could be some sign of it on elevated surfaces, but otherwise this was a non-event for the Quad State. South winds have kicked in over the southwest half of the region and temperatures have climbed up to freezing or above. The south winds and temperatures at or above freezing should reach the Tri State by daybreak.

Temperatures will climb up to normal levels in the 40s this afternoon, and a few 50 degree readings cannot be ruled out over southeast Missouri. A broad trough aloft will overspread the Quad State this afternoon and evening. Ahead of it, a band of light rain is expected to develop mainly over the Pennyrile of west Kentucky. There is 30-40% chance of the Ft Campbell and Elkton areas receiving 0.10" of rainfall, with lesser amounts farther north.

As the colder air aloft reaches southern Illinois this afternoon, scattered showers will be possible. Temperatures should be warm enough for all rain through the afternoon and into the evening. However, as temperatures approach the freezing mark from the northwest later in the evening, snow showers will become possible. Snow showers will become prevalent throughout the region overnight. The chance of precipitation at any one location is only 20-30%, as many areas will stay dry, but where showers hit, a brief burst of snow could produce a quick dusting. The shower activity will become even more isolated Saturday, mainly over the southern half of the Quad State. After today's warmth, the ground will likely be too warm for roads to become slick. The bigger travel concern may be a sudden reduction of visibility within the showers.

Beyond Saturday, the precipitation chances end and the focus becomes the cold air. The cold air will come in two main surges, one Saturday and the more significant one Sunday night into Monday. The 00Z ensembles indicate that sub-freezing wind chills are a near certainty throughout the Quad State from Friday night through Wednesday morning. The probability of sub-zero wind chills is virtually zero until late Sunday night/early Monday morning, when it climbs to 30-50% along and north of I-64. Sub-zero wind chills have only a 20-30% chance over the same area Tuesday morning.

The forecast for Wednesday and beyond is quite murky at this time. While it appears that we will warm up some Wednesday, the NBM may be a bit aggressive in advertising above normal temperatures. The latest trend in guidance brings a cold front through the Quad State later Wednesday, and then another much stronger cold front Friday night or Saturday. Any hope of making a quick recovery from the upcoming cold spell may be fleeting.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Southwest winds will gust 15-25kts through much of the day. Light showers will be possible this afternoon and tonight. The best chance seems to be in the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. The showers should remain VFR, with the possible exceptions will be this evening at KOWB, where more steady rainfall is possible, and later this evening at KMVN where snow showers are possible. Winds will gradually veer to west through the period, and a cold frontal passage may take winds to the west northwest overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.