textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy thunderstorms will continue across parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky early this morning. A Flood Watch remain in effect until 7 AM CDT.

- Much quieter weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast through this weekend into early next week.

- Small daily 15 to 25% chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Very heavy thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will continue early this morning across southeast MO, far southern IL, and western KY. This activity extends along a frontal boundary that extended W to E just north of the KY/TN and MO/AR border. With PWAT values of 2.0-2.3" and training storms, the threat for flash flooding will continue through daybreak.

Showers and thunderstorms will wind down later this morning has the front shift south of the region, and dry weather is expected from this afternoon through Friday. With broad troughing over the eastern CONUS, temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal. Another front will approach the area Saturday and stall just north of the area through early next week. This will be enough to bring small 15-25% shower and storm chances each day Saturday into early next week. Temperatures will remain around normal values for late August.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TSRA will continue to plague KCGI and KPAH terminals over the next several hours before gradually diminishing. Severe risk appears to be largely confined to the south of both terminals, but can't rule out some gusty winds and even some hail with any stronger elevated cores. Conditions will drop to MVFR and IFR in the TSRA with localized LIFR possible. KOWB will be on the northern fringes of any precipitation and continued to handle the potential with PROB30 mention for now, but will amend if it trends or develops northward and probability for impact increases. Low level moisture and light flow will present the potential for some low clouds and fog late tonight and Thursday AM. Some uncertainty on extent due to considerable debris cloudiness overhead, but stayed the course with previous TAFs for now with MVFR to local IFR conditions 10z-16z. Thereafter, expect improvement to VFR with light NNE winds in the wake of a cold front.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ084>094. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.