textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Our bitter cold temperatures will moderate the next couple of days, with highs reaching above freezing. There is even a 50-80% chance of temperatures hitting 40 across portions of southeast MO and west KY.

- A light wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain is possible Tuesday, but confidence in any sort of impacts remains low. Cold residual surfaces may lead to isolated travel issues, but temperatures above freezing today may warm surfaces enough to prevent widespread accretion.

- While temperatures will primarily be below normal Wednesday through Saturday, it won't be as cold as what we've experienced lately. Normal highs are in the mid 40s and normal lows are in the upper 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Current satellite shows expansive cloud cover on the back side of the upper trough situated from the Upper Midwest into the Quad State region. Some light snow continues to pivot east across southwest IN, but this will quickly exit to our east shortly. If the cloud cover ends up lingering all night then overnight temperatures will likely not fall much, and we may remain in the low 20s in most areas (particularly east of the MS River). Light southwesterly winds will combine with a decent amount of sunshine today to help boost temperatures above freezing and may even reach 40 in parts of southeast MO and west KY. Certainly should help kick start the melting of our snowpack.

Our main system of concern this week continues to be the light wintry precipitation potential on Tuesday. We have two pieces of energy that will attempt to phase across our area, or possibly to our east. One is coming from the Northern Rockies and the other is over Northern Mexico. Despite both being on land now, model guidance is still struggling on the evolution of this system as it crosses our region within the next 30-36 hours. One possible solution is for absolutely nothing to happen with no measurable QPF anywhere in the cwa, as suggested by the HRRR and RAP. For now this is a bit of an outlier solution, but wouldn't be surprised if it panned out. Another solution is for light precip to develop mid to late morning, but with the bulk of any tangible QPF to be confined to west KY and southwest IN (as the GFS suggests). Meanwhile, the NAM seems to be the most aggressive with a widespread tenth or two of liquid east of the MS River. For now a middle ground approach seems most likely.

Whatever precipitation does develop before 10-11 AM Tuesday morning could be a bit concerning in that p-type may be light freezing rain. HREF probabilities of a light glaze of ice (>=0.01") are roughly 20- 30% in splotchy areas of the cwa. Thereafter, temperatures should trend above freezing in most areas leading to the p-type being either rain or snow. The thermal profile suggests the primary axis of snow is confined to the Wabash Valley of southern IL and southwest IN along with neighboring areas of northwest KY. This is the region the HREF is pinging at roughly a 40-50% chance of measurable snow (0.1" or greater). The highest QPF axis likely will reside south of this though, across west KY, where there is a 40-50% chance for a tenth of an inch of liquid. So the snow that does fall should be fairly light, fall during the daytime, and with surface temps primarily a little above freezing. Likely wouldn't be much of an impact from a dusting to less than a half inch. The greatest impact from this system would likely reside in any light icing occurring Tuesday morning, which confidence is fairly low in still.

After Tuesday's system, the upper level pattern will feature troughing across the Eastern CONUS putting us in northwest flow aloft through Saturday. Temperatures will primarily be below normal, except for Friday, when highs well into the 40s are expected and even an increasing chance at exceeding 50 across the south (particularly southeast MO). While the latter half of the week into next weekend look dry, northwest flow is notorious for these very light QPF events that could suddenly show up.

Glancing further out, there is a growing signal in the medium-range guidance suggesting a flatter upper level pattern or even ridging developing across the center of the CONUS next week. This would likely lead to above normal temperatures finally, and possibly for an extended period. NBM has highs in the 50s during the Feb 9-12 period, and there are hints in deterministic models that suggest several days above 60 may occur. So for those tired of the prolonged cold we have endured, hope appears to be on the horizon!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A few flurries remain possible across the northern terminals overnight. The probability of seeing brief MVFR conditions is only 20%.

Model guidance continues to support a 40% chance of some vsby reductions at KCGI Monday morning. Maintained MVFR mention due to a shallow inversion that develops. Some of the guidance supports lower vsbys, but not confident due to the dry air.

Light southerly winds tonight gradually shift more southwest around 5 kts during the day on Monday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.