textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions will continue through today with wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph. There is a 60 to 80% chance gusts briefly exceed 35 mph locally. The wind combined with very dry fuels and afternoon RH values around 28 to 38% will elevate the fire danger.

- Above normal temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s will continue through Friday. A cool down follows by Sunday with near to slightly below normal temperatures through early next week.

- Off and on rain chances return for the latter half of the week, with Thursday and Saturday having the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Total rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is forecast, with only a 10 to 30% chance of exceeding 2 inches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Gradient winds will prevail today with sfc low pressure moving leeward of the Rocky Mountains over Colorado. BUFKIT model soundings support deep layer mixing up to 825 mb that will yield wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph. Similar to yesterday, there is the potential for wind gusts to overachieve with a 60 to 80% chance of briefly exceeding 35 mph. Very dry fuels combined with afternoon RH values between 28 to 38% will elevate the fire danger today. Temperatures will continue to remain above normal through Friday with daily highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s as a warm sector regime remains in place.

Rain chances begin to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a 50 to 60% chance confined to the I-64 corridor as a cold front briefly sags south across central Illinois. Models are now in good agreement with the cold front not moving through the FA, but there is still uncertainty if a broken line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will reach the northern most counties around midday Wednesday. Most of the 0z CAMs such as the HRRR/3km NAM show very little rainfall, while the ARW is more aggressive with bringing rain chances further south. Adjusted NBM PoPs lower as many locations south of I-64 may end up not seeing any rain. Severe weather is unlikely if storms reach the FA as the wind shear will be weak despite 700 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates around 8 C/km.

The aformentioned sfc low pressure tracks northeast across Iowa on Thursday as a 500 mb shortwave approaches from the west, bringing a 70 to 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The FA will still be in the warm sector as the front lifts back north. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into Friday morning before trending drier in the afternoon. With that said, the best widespread shower and thunderstorm chances remain on track to arrive with a cold front Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as another area of low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes region. ML guidance shows a slight uptick in very marginal severe weather probabilities, but confidence remains low if there will be enough moisture to support sufficient instability. Total rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is now forecast with a 10 to 30% chance of exceeding 2 inches. Would not be surprise if a few locations in the Kentucky Pennyrile struggle to see 1 inch given the latest trends. Near to slightly below normal temperatures return Sunday into early next behind the front. The NBM has lows in the 30s progged for Monday morning, but gradient winds may help to mitigate frost concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Breezy southerly winds will increase to 16-22 kts this afternoon, with gusts peaking around 30 kts. Maintained TEMPO MVFR cig mention at KEVV/KOWB for this morning while uncertainty is higher across the other terminals. Otherwise, high-level clouds will continue to spread across the region. Winds after sunset diminish to 6-10 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.