textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Small chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, followed by very breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk for severe storms with hail and wind the main threats.

- Shower and storm chances will gradually spread from north to south while increasing Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, with the best chances (60-80%) Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A few strong storms are possible, but it appears the primary severe threat likely remains north of us.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A cold front will sag southeast into the area Tuesday afternoon/evening as it becomes a bit less defined as it moves through the area. The better moisture return will be delayed for that front, which will help to limit overall coverage for showers and storms. Dewpoints are progged to be approach 60 degrees ahead of the front. In fact, it looks like most areas may end up staying dry with only a 20-40% chance of seeing showers and storms across the area. Instability is expected to jump up close to 600-800 J/kg with shear near 40kts. That combination will give a risk of at least isolated severe weather Tuesday afternoon/evening. The marginal risk is for large hail and damaging winds; however, there is an outside risk of a brief tornado.

A very strong mid to upper level jet is still expected to develop and push eastward across northern IL Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dewpoints and winds increase ahead of the system with dewpoints reaching into the mid to upper 60s and winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph out of the south. The better overlap of very strong shear and instability is still expected to remain just north of the CWA over central into northern Illinois/Indiana; however, the storms are expected to trek southward through the evening and overnight as they gradually weaken. This will keep a risk of severe weather in place, especially across southern Illinois into southwest Indiana. Damaging winds are expected to be the main threats from any storms that make it far enough south before weakening. Still validates the slight risk highlighted by SPC. Still looking like a 40-50% chance of any one area seeing 1 inch of rain for that time period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through this TAF issuance. A scattered cloud deck is in place this afternoon with typical diurnal CU wtih bases around 5kft. Winds are expected to remain light, less that 10kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.