textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat and humidity continue today, with a Heat Advisory in effect for heat indices peaking above 100 for the 7th consecutive day.

- Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend into early next week (40-60%), peaking during the afternoon and early evening. Some potential (20-40%) at daily showers and storms continues through next week.

- Temperatures trend towards more seasonable readings Sunday into next week which should keep heat index readings below 100 most days.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The upper level ridge responsible for our first prolonged heatwave of the season this past week will continue to breakdown this weekend. In the process, upper level energy across the central CONUS will pivot southeast into the Quad State this weekend into early next week helping to boost convective chances. The combination of the ridge breaking down and increased cloud cover/storm coverage will also lead to temperatures/heat index values falling back to more seasonable readings by early next week. Today will be a transition day where outside convection we should still reach the low 90s with heat index readings topping out in the 100-105 range. Sunday we may still flirt with 100 or slightly higher in some areas, but confidence isn't high enough to extend the Heat Advisory for an additional day with this package.

Scattered convection will likely initiate this afternoon and continue into early evening, but current thinking is the bulk of the activity may once again be down by 01-02z. There are a few model solutions that keep activity going a bit later today though, which given the ridge breaking down and troughiness working in from the northwest may keep storms going for longer this evening then previous days. Shear remains weak, but some storms should likely pulse up to severe levels for brief periods to produce some widely scattered damaging wind or hail reports. Activity may tend to increase slightly further on Sunday into Monday as upper waves pass through the Quad State region. Thereafter, daily chances continue but may become more isolated heading into mid week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Primary issue this TAF period will be with scattered TSRA, which timing currently looks focused in the mid afternoon through early evening period (20-02z). Aside from vsby and possibly cig restrictions in convection, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will primarily be out of the SW around 4-6 kts today.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.