textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- With temperatures well above freezing, the threat of impactful winter weather today has ended. Light to moderate rain will continue through this evening before ending from west to east.

- Chilly weather will continue into next week, and confidence is growing that another system will bring a potentially impactful wintry mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain to most or all of the area Monday night through Tuesday morning.

- Dry and chilly weather is forecast for the middle of next week, with a small chance of precipitation (mainly rain) returning to the forecast on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As strong WAA continues, associated with a deepening surface low over central Missouri, temperatures have warmed well above freezing. This has brought the risk of impactful winter weather today to an end, and the Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson, Wayne, Edwards, and Wabash County in southern IL has been canceled. With extensive low-level dry air, robust wet-bulb cooling has been observed, resulting in both a delay in the onset of precipitation and an initial burst of sleet mixing with the rain.

By late this afternoon, the precipitation will be mainly rain showers. This activity will gradually move from west to east, ending early Sunday morning in most locations. As cold high pressure moves into the Upper Midwest, the rest of the day Sunday and into Monday will be dry and chilly. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s, followed by highs ranging from the lower 30s with plentiful clouds along I-64 to upper 30s with mostly sunny skies along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders. Monday will see similar conditions with high temperatures reaching the middle 30s to middle 40s from northwest to southeast.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, our next potentially impactful winter weather system will take shape. The event will be driven by relative weak surface low pressure that will organize over the southern Rocky Mountains and organize as it moves eastward across the southern Great Plains and Mid/Deep South. The placement of the surface high will provide a source of sub- freezing air temperatures that will allow for the main precipitation type to be mainly frozen.

Confidence is growing that the most or all of the area will see some minor travel impacts from a wintry mix. However, confidence remains low in terms of how much liquid equivalent precipitation we will see and precipitation types. Some models like the NAM are very aggressive with QPF amounts of 0.50-0.75", resulting in significant snow/sleet accumulations. However, the ECMWF has trended in a colder/drier direction. The NBM initialization remains pretty aggressive with the QPF, bringing about 0.25-0.50" of liquid equivalent from northwest to southeast by Tuesday morning. However, would not be surprised to see these values trend downward with later updates.

Precipitation types remain a big question. The ECMWF shows the region being under the left-entrance region of an H3 jet for most of the event, resulting in broad upper-level convergence/subsidence. In fact, the ECMWF model soundings show profiles more supportive of freezing drizzle or sleet pellets more than anything. The warmer/wetter models would support accumulating snow and sleet totals 1-3" and perhaps a light glaze of freezing rain. The latest forecast shows about 0.5-1.5" of snow across the entire region and a light glaze of icing across southern parts of southeast Missouri into far southwest Kentucky.

Either outcome, save for a completely suppressed and dry system, would bring travel impacts Monday night into Tuesday morning. Planning to continue to ramp up the messaging, and depending on confidence, winter weather headlines may be issued sometime on Sunday.

Beyond Tuesday, chilly and dry conditions are forecast through the middle of next week. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will reach the middle 30s or lower 40s in most areas. The small chance of precipitation will arrive Friday as another southern stream disturbance passes through the Mid-South. This could start as a light wintry mix Friday morning before changing over to rain in the afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As surface low pressure deepens and moves north and east of the area, warmer air will continue to advance northward, allowing the last of any snow shower activity around MVN to change over the just rain. Rain showers will spread across the region this afternoon through early tonight, bringing lowering cigs to MVFR levels through the overnight hours. There will be some improvement back to VFR at CGI and PAH after 12z Sunday.

Winds will increase and become S to SW through this evening, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. Winds will veer to during the predawn hours to the W to NW as a cold front passes becoming sustained around 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20s.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.