textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front moving south through the region early this morning will be accompanied by scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Amounts likely will be very light, with the southern two thirds of the region only having about a 10-30% chance at receiving 0.10". Lingering showers exit western Kentucky later this afternoon.

- Temperatures will be 30 to 35 degrees cooler today with afternoon readings only in the low to mid 50s. The cooler pattern hangs around through Saturday.

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for much of the region tonight into Saturday morning. There is a high likelihood (greater than 70%) of the northern half of the region falling to freezing or slightly lower. Somewhat lower confidence further south, but even here should be within a couple degrees of freezing.

- Another warming trend commences early next week. Most of our area has at least a 50% chance at highs reaching 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- An active weather pattern may setup mid to late next week, with the first system potentially impacting our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. It is too early to determine if severe storms might be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A strong cold front is surging south across the northern cwa currently with a band of rain and embedded thunder displaced about 100 miles north of the boundary. Given the post frontal nature of the convection, the severe chances are essentially nil at this point. Heck, much of our cwa may struggle to receive appreciable QPF from this system. Aside from the areas along and north of I-64, which may receive 0.10" to 0.25" and locally heavier, recent guidance really weakens the shower activity as it progresses further south through Friday morning. The HREF in particular is quite light, giving roughly only a 10-30% chance at receiving a tenth of an inch across the southern two thirds or so of the cwa. A few showers may linger across west KY into mid to late afternoon before exiting to the south.

Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s south of the front, with a drop about 20 degrees expected as the fropa occurs early this morning. Highs will be early in the day with readings dropping through the morning and struggling to rebound much in the afternoon. Afternoon temps in the low to mid 50s will be some 30 to 35 degrees cooler than the record highs we experienced yesterday. A stiff northerly wind (gusting up around 25 mph) will add an extra bite and make for an unpleasant afternoon for sure.

Surface high pressure over the Midwest will slide southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday providing a crisp airmass for the start of the weekend. Given the warm month we have experienced so far, the growing degree days are well ahead of normal for late March and vegetation is now susceptible. Confidence has only increased regarding freezing temperatures early Saturday morning, with guidance now suggesting greater than a 70% chance at temps reaching freezing across the northern half of the region. Have decided to issue a Freeze Warning for much of the cwa for this reason. Areas along the southern periphery of the Warning are less certain, but should still be within a couple degrees of freezing. The wind may remain up just enough combined with a higher dew point depression to largely prevent frost formation.

As the surface high departs to our east, southerly flow returns on Sunday helping to boost temperatures back above normal for the end of the weekend. Early next week looks even warmer, with at least a 50% chance at reaching 80 again across much of our cwa on Monday and Tuesday.

Guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding another system and associated cold front pushing into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still too early to determine if any severe storms could occur with this, but if the current timing holds then the primary severe threat may remain northwest of us. Additional disturbances may impact our region later next week as a rather active pattern develops.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 457 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front will approach and make passage tonight; a chance of showers/storms will accompany it. Restricted bases/CIGS commence after fropa, with attendant restrictions to VSBYS possible w/pcpn. Gusty S-SW winds will shift to the NW-N after fropa. Improvements in overall flight conditions forecast will increase in prevalence during the planning phase hours of the package.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086- 087-100-111. IN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ004-005- 007-008-010>022.