textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/storms are expected Friday with a meager chance for a few severe storms. Beneficial rainfall is expected.

- Monday's set up looks more potent and a better chance for severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Amplified upper level ridging is over the Midwest today with broad troughing over the Intermountain West. Today will be another day of warm temperatures with NBM having a greater than 80% chance of reaching at least 80 degrees this afternoon. Winds will continue to be breezy again today. The western trof aloft approaches the area later this afternoon/evening.

As the trof and sfc front approach and move through the area on Friday we can expect showers/storms ahead of the front along with beneficial rainfall. There is good moisture advection ahead of the system. However, severe potential looks meager with mid level lapse rates around 6-6.5 degC/km, 0-6 km bulk shear is only around 30 kts, and CAMS have around 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE (boundary layer) late on Friday and 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE (elevated). Rain chances peak Friday late morning and through the afternoon (60-95%). As for the beneficial rainfall, NBM has a roughly 45-55% chance of an inch or more mainly over SEMO.

Monday's system looks to be more potent and a better set up for severe. A stout shortwave aloft rolls through the Plains and into the upper Midwest with coupled sfc low and attendant front. While an EML may create a bit of a cap, there is still around 2,000-2,500 J/kg of MLCAPE, mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 degC/km, 40-45 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. All of this would support a threat for severe storms, though this is still a ways out and will bear watching.

Expect cooler temperatures behind the front for the remainder of next week. A few more waves possibly roll through next week leading to more unsettled weather mid to late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Breezy winds again today out of the south at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. Some mid level cu is expected to develop later this morning and afternoon. Winds will stay up overnight as a front approaches. Expect showers and storms tomorrow morning, but mainly after 12Z at the terminals.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.