textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm will impact the entire region late Friday night through Sunday afternoon with heavy snowfall. Between 7 to 13 inches of snow is forecast in places with a 85% chance of exceeding winter storm warning criteria (4 inches) across the entire quad-state. Probabilities of a foot or more accumulation are above 60% from roughly Poplar Bluff northeastward to Evansville. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the entire region.

- A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain over far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky near the Tennessee border may result in a sharp gradient with reduced snowfall totals. There is a 40-50% chance ice accretion exceeds a tenth of an inch.

- Prolonged sub freezing temperatures with dangerously cold wind chills begins Friday and continues through at least Thursday for most of the region. The probability of temperatures falling below 0 degrees overnight this weekend is about 85%. Temperatures are not currently forecast to rise above freezing through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The low that will start all of our trouble is still swirling off the California coast. This swirl was sampled last night by USAF hurricane hunters to better resolve it and hopefully, help us forecast its impacts better. Those impacts look to be significant, and potentially extreme for the area with heavy, possibly record snowfall, mixed in with sleet and freezing rain as dangerously cold wind chills move in.

Good agreement in all guidance that during the day Friday an exceptional cold front moves through the area, pushed by a 1048-1052 mb ridge of high pressure, originating from Siberia and the absolute northernmost extent of the polar region. By Friday night we are in the right exit region of a 150-170 kt westerly jet maximum introducing broad large-scale ascent. As lower level height gradients steepen in response 850mb warm advection and subsequent frontogenetic forcing cranks up. What should begin as a fairly light fluffy snow will then transition to a heavier wetter snow probably mixed with sleet over western Kentucky. Jet-level ascent improves through the day Saturday into Saturday night as the initial right rear exit region phases with the advancing left exit region of a jet max rounding the base of the main trough. This should be the peak of lift both from jet level and frontogenetic forcing and a surface low then starts to form over MS/AL addition some deformation forcing into the equation through early Sunday. This curvature behind the low gives us some lift through at least Sunday afternoon.

The ECMWF has been consistent, and probably has a point, about 850mb flow being faster/stronger over the southeastern part of the CWA in response to such tremendous jet-level lift. This strong warm advection warms temperatures aloft into sleet or freezing rain territory. I expect that might occur in bursts rather than consistently through the event as 850mb flow surges in strength. This makes specific totals essentially impossible to pin down, but the long-duration strong lift and moisture makes the warning part easier, even if sleet eats into totals quite a bit there should be enough moisture left over for 5-6 inches of snow or more. Northwest of the potential sleet region, wherever that forms, will be a sweet spot of very strong lift and cold enough temperatures for heavy snow and areas flirting with a foot or more certainly still seem possible.

This storm screams for a more probabalistic approach and our tools for that have been extremely consistent. The center band of heaviest snow has 85 percent probabilities of 8 or more inches and 60% probabilities of a foot or more. Right along the KY/TN border the numbers are lower but even down there shows an 80% probability of 4 to 5 inches or more. Wherever that perfect sweet spot maximizes will see quite a snowman strangler, but everyone in the region is as likely as they can be from this range to see a significant, impactful, dangerous winter storm and anything done to prepare for that will be effort that will not be wasted. Travel will likely become next to impossible and wind chills will be at or below zero for the duration of the event greatly exacerbating the danger.

In the new forecast that takes into account the snowpack, temperatures do not rise above freezing through the end of the forecast period on Thursday. This would be an unusually long cold period even under normal circumstances. Some snowfall reduction is possible through sublimation once the sun begins to shine on Monday but this has the look of a storm that will be more difficult than usual to crawl out from under.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the current TAF period, northerly winds may pick up towards the end of the period as a cold front that precedes the advancing winter storm sweeps through.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. Winter Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Friday to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. Winter Storm Warning from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Friday night to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022. Winter Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.