textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Predawn thunderstorms maintain a heavy rain/lightning and isolated severe (marginal risk) threat that ends with fropa.

- Temperatures return closer to seasonal norms today thanks to the aforementioned cold front's passage; it effectively ends our prolonged duration extreme heat headlines. - Another cold front's approach and passage brings our next increase in storm chances, including strong storm chances, Wednesday night into Thursday.

- A reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures and lower humidity works in with more earnest after the second front's mid week passage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Convective chances linger across mainly our north tonight as a cold front sinks southward. IR tops to -75C are impressive and we've seen some gustiness out of recent storms just upstream. We'll have to keep an eye out for any flare-ups but overall the trending toward daybreak is the other direction wrt svr, and pops should be waning by 12Z if not completely departed; however there will continue to be a localized heavy rain/flooding hazard where training occurs and isolated gusty winds cannot be completely ruled out. All of this amidst fropa and winds shifting to the northwest will provide much needed relief from the extreme heat, as temps return to more climatologically normal readings with highs in the upper half 80s to near 90 degrees. Dew points draw down into the lower 70s north but may hang and hover in the mid 70s in our south until toward the close of the day. Even so, with the lower temps, the heat index across our south stays just below Advisory criteria.

Surface high pressure builds overtop the PAH FA Tuesday and really draws the lower dew points down on in and across the area; seeing some mid 60s isodrosotherms (gasp?!) may not be entirely out of the question during the Tuesday afternoon mix-out under near cloudless skies.

As the high shifts east Tuesday night, we'll start to see some return warmth/moisture heading into the mid week as upper air energy buckles the pattern and evolves a wave that tracks/makes its Ohio Valley passage by week's end. The preceding time getting there offers the best chance of a strong or severe storm, namely Wednesday night into Thursday, but it appears to be too low for any type of categorical mention at this writing; something to monitor/be cognizant toward. After this 2nd system's ultimate passage, we see a nice and pleasant, reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air with a similar/repeat dew point plunge into the 60s that finishes out our week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Storms will be most active along a cold front from KMVN- KEVV/KOWB during the pre dawn hours, while KCGI-KPAH will experience more isolated vicinity (or void) mention. Brief gusty winds and vsbys/cigs deteriorating to IFR will be possible with any storms, and MVFR cigs may filter into the north while calming winds could enable some vsby restrictions as well. NW winds behind fropa during the day help facilitate a slow lift/thin of cloud bases as notably cooler/drier air draws in behind the fropa.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.