textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A significant severe weather event remains on track for Monday evening into Monday night. Large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are all possible. There is a 20-40% chance of an initial round of storms arriving up north Monday morning. Another round of severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

- Breezy conditions are expected Monday with wind gusts between 25-35 mph. There is a 40-50% chance wind gusts briefly exceed wind advisory criteria of 40 mph locally.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures on Monday trend slightly below normal for the latter half of the week. There is a 20-30% chance of a returning rain shower on Friday, followed by quiet weather conditions for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A ridge of high pressure that has provided the Quad State with unseasonably warm conditions will begin to breakdown on Monday, setting the stage for a significant severe weather setup. A shortwave will begin ejecting leeward of the Rockies over the central Plains as sfc low pressure moves northeast into Wisconsin by Monday evening. An increase in the pressure gradient combined with robust mixing will support wind gusts between 25-35 mph. There is a 40-50% chance wind gusts briefly exceed wind advisory criteria of 40 mph locally. Temperatures will remain above normal in the low to mid 80s.

Most of the 12z CAMs show a cap remaining in place through Monday afternoon, inhibiting convective initiation until Monday evening. The 12z HRRR is an outlier and shows a decaying elevated MCS around 12z pushing southeast across the I-64 corridor. Additional surface based storms develop along a residual outflow boundary Monday afternoon. At the moment, the deterministic forecast leans towards a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms, but it is very contingent on the evolution of convection upstream overnight as a warm front lifts north. Should the HRRR be correct, large hail would initially be the main concern before a transition to all hazards in the afternoon, but confidence is low as there is not much support from a synoptic perspective. For now, would lean towards most of the day remaining dry.

The most concerning severe weather risk remains on track to arrive Monday evening with discrete supercells quickly growing upscale into a broken squall line that will begin to arrive from the west between 7 to 10 PM. Convection quickly pushes through overnight, ending across the east between 12 to 3 AM. The thermodynamics and kinematics on the onset remain very concerning, with 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with 200 to 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH and STP of 2.0 to 4.0, supporting the potential for strong EF2+ tornadoes. Steep lapse rates between 7.0 to 8.0 C/km will yield a large hail risk up to 2.00 inches with more discrete storms early while 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE will favor a damaging wind risk with embedded strong tornadoes still remaining probable when the transition to the line occurs. Model guidance remains in strong agreement with the end time for the main line, but some uncertainty remains with the onset if the aformentioned morning convection ends up being more robust downstream. The only variable lacking is the upper level jet support, favoring the highest severe weather probabilities remaining more north.

While the greatest severe weather risk is Monday evening, the cold front stalls on Tuesday as another shortwave approaches the FA, setting the stage for more severe weather potential Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. While the wind shear will not be as robust, sufficient instability and steep lapse rates will support another round of severe thunderstorms, especially across far southern western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards of concern. Total rainfall between both systems is progged between 1.5 to 3.0 inches.

Behind the cold front, the rest of the week will be much cooler with temperatures slightly below normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak disturbance will bring a 20-30% chance of a returning rain shower on Friday; otherwise, high pressure will provide more tranquil weather conditions next weekend. Temperatures will trend near normal by next Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Few cu around 5-6 kft AGL is possible this afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight. East to southeast winds between 5-10 kts shift south Monday morning, increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. There is a 20% chance decaying morning convection could impact the northern terminals.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.