textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures are expected (90-100% chance) to remain below freezing today and Monday before warming to near or just above freezing for Tuesday.

- Very cold wind chill reading in the single digits to near zero will continue through Tuesday morning. In fact, there is about a 70- 90% chance that wind chills will drop to -5 degrees (Wind Chill Advisory Criteria) or lower along and north of the I-64 corridor late tonight into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed with the next update.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the Ozark counties today and possibly more widespread on Monday.

- Models have trended a bit warmer for the end of the week into next weekend; however, it does look unsettled and there is still a possibility of a wintry mix. Overall confidence is low on precipitation types and placement at this time, but it is worth keeping an eye on throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Broad troughing will linger across the eastern CONUS with multiple shortwaves rounding the base of the trough and re-enforcing the colder air through at least Tuesday morning. The next shortwave will brush the northern portions of the area this afternoon/evening, bringing the next chance for a few snow showers or flurries. Still not much moisture to work with for that time period, so not expecting any impacts. The next shortwave (even farther north) will be Monday night into Tuesday morning with even less moisture, so kept that period dry. Outside of those small chances for flurries or very light snow showers, the main issue will be the cold air in place. High temperatures will struggle to get above freezing today and will remain well below freezing (in the 20s) for Monday before moderating a bit on Tuesday. Lows will be quite cold, dropping into the teens tonight and low teens and single digits above zero Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wind chill readings will drop into the low single digits above zero through Tuesday morning!! In fact there is about a 70-90% chance of seeing wind chill readings drop to -5F along and north of the I-64 corridor late tonight into Monday morning. That would be right at Cold Weather Advisory criteria, so it is very possible that one will be issued with the next update later today.

Very dry air in place, continued drought conditions along with gusty winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon over and near the Ozark counties in SEMO and possibly across the entire area Monday.

Temperatures trends continue to warm toward the end of the week, into the 40s for most of the area, as the upper-level pattern flattens. High pressure is expected to be in place across the southeast US, allowing moisture to advect northward into the Quad State, setting the stage for unsettled weather late in the week into the weekend. The warmer trend in the model guidance has kept the precipitation largely as rain, but that could change over the weekend, depending on exact track and timing surface and upper-level features. At this point, there is no great continuity in the model guidance from model to model or run to run. Ensemble guidance continues to have a huge spread among the members and even the AI guidance has around a 20 degree spread in the surface temperature forecast for the end of the week/weekend. Aloft there is also a very large spread for the weekend as well, just showing how low the confidence is in the forecast at this time! The exact details with this system will need to be ironed out over the next several days, but it is worth keeping an eye on if you have travel plans toward the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Some mid clouds may brush through the northern TAF sites this afternoon and evening along with some flurries or a brief snow shower. Otherwise, the main impacts on the TAF sites with this issuance will be continued gusty winds to around 20 kts or so this afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.