textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend with rain chances peaking at 40 to 60% each afternoon. A stronger gusty storm cannot be ruled out on Saturday, especially northeast across southwest Indiana.

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into next week with heat index values nearing 105 degrees on Tuesday. Relief arrives the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A broad upper level ridge will weaken this weekend with increasing daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Showers have already across the FA, with rain chances peaking this afternoon during diurnal heating. A frontal boundary eventually approaches the tri- state on Friday, followed by a weak shortwave trough Friday evening that will bring additional rain chances peaking around 40 to 60% each day. Despite 2000 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, poor lapse rates and meager shear will favor pulse convection. PWAT's over 2 inches will also support locally heavy rainfall with torrential downpours that can lead to nuisance localized flooding issues in more prone urban locations.

On Saturday, sfc low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region with another frontal boundary that sags south and stalls by Sunday morning. As another shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley, a slight uptick in the shear combined with 6.5 to 7.0 C/km sfc-3km lapse rates and 25-35 K theta-e difference will support a marginal risk for isolated stronger storms. The main concern will be the potential for downbursts, especially northeast across southwest Indiana. Rain chances linger into Sunday before trending drier on Monday ahead of a cold front that will eventually move through on Tuesday. The unsettled weather will not bring much relief as heat index values will gradually trend higher, nearing 105 degrees by Tuesday before a cool down eventually arrives for the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon across the region, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions during heavy downpours. Any rain quickly diminishes tonight with the loss of diurnal heating with skies turning mostly to partly clear. Patchy fog is possible again early Friday morning, especially across the northern terminals. Calm winds tonight increase to 5-6 kts out of the west to southwest Friday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.