textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue today and last through the forecast period (and possibly beyond). Friday has a 50-80% chance of seeing 80+ over west KY.

- An unsettled pattern this week will bring near daily chances for rain. By Friday morning there is a greater than 60% chance of 1+ inches north of the Ohio River and for most of SEMO. Friday night to Saturday night has a 40-60% chance for an additional 0.75" or more.

- A couple of days could see some severe potential, right now Wednesday is in a SPC Slight Risk mainly for the afternoon and evening hours. After a lull during the day Friday, Friday night might have some severe potential, but right now the greatest threat remains to our west.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The sfc warm front currently sits just south of the I-64 corridor and will serve as the focus for any isolated convective activity through mid morning today. A sfc low will track along this quasi- stationary front from southwest MO through southern IL and southern IN today through Thursday. This will then bring a cold front to our western border. South of the quasi-stationary front southerly flow will dominate and support dewpoints in the lower 60s this afternoon. Increasing moisture, midlevel lapse rates around 7 degC/km, ML CAPE around 1,000-1,500 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear around 35-45 kts will support severe storms with large hail as the main threat. This also supports SPC's Slight Risk area this afternoon and evening. The only hiccup is that the best chances for convection (60-100% chances) come after midnight into Thursday. Total rainfall by Friday morning has a greater than 60% chance of 1+ inches north of the the Ohio River and for most of SEMO and a greater than 40% chance of 2+ inches north of the Ohio River and in northern SEMO.

The cold front will orient west to east just north of the area by Thursday night into Friday. As the sfc low moves off to the northeast along the boundary, rain chances will decrease from south to north Thursday evening into Friday morning. There will then be a lull in activity on Friday with mainly isolated (~20%) chances for showers and storms. Friday night another cold front approaches from the west ramping up PoPs once again along and ahead of the front. PoPs max out at 70-100% Friday night into Saturday morning. Timing of the front will be really important regarding any severe potential which remains greatest to our west currently. Total rainfall Friday night to Saturday night has a 40-60% chance of being at least 0.75", that drops down to 30-40% for an inch or more.

Sunday and Monday bring another lull in activity before an upper trof ejects out of the Desert Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday. PoPs then ramp up again Tuesday into Wednesday and a cold front looks to potentially come through Wednesday. All told for rainfall by next Wednesday evening the LREF has a 40-60% chance of 3+ inches over SEMO, southern IL, and southwest IN.

Temperatures will continue to be well above average through the end of the forecast period. Friday looks to be the warmest day with a 50- 80% chance of reaching 80 degrees across west KY with elsewhere having a 60-90% chance of 75+ degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Another tricky forecast today with a midlevel cloud deck that should lower through the day but stay VFR except for at MVN. There are also chances for showers and storms to develop throughout the day and overall timing is medium to lower confidence. Heavier downpours may affect visibilities at times. Overall chances for showers and storms increase closer to tomorrow morning (70-90% chance).

Winds are generally out of the south with the exception of MVN and EVV which are out of the northeast since they are north of the sfc boundary. Winds will pick up to around 7-12 kts today and may gust to around 18-20 kts at times. As the boundary lifts back north MVN and EVV will switch around to the south. Winds will decrease overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.