textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another wave of dangerously cold Arctic air will move into the region tonight. There is a 50-80% chance of sub-zero wind chills over southwest Indiana, and much of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri by daybreak Friday. By daybreak Saturday morning the chance is virtually 100% throughout the Quad State. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from 12 AM to 12 PM Saturday.

- A band of flurries or light snow is expected to accompany the leading edge of the Arctic air, mainly over the northeast half of the Quad State from late this evening through Friday morning. There is now a 20-50% of minor accumulations perhaps coating the existing snowpack.

- Isolated snow showers will be possible throughout the area late Friday night. Over most of the Quad State this will amount to only flurries, but there is a 20% chance of a light dusting of new snow over portions of west Kentucky.

- While confidence is low, there is some potential (30-50%) of a light wintry mix impacting the region Tuesday night into next Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The greatest concern for this forecast package will be dangerously cold wind chills expected throughout the Quad State Friday night into Saturday morning. Sub-zero wind chills may reach northern portions of the region by daybreak Friday, but ensemble guidance has a nearly 100% chance of the entire region reaching Cold Advisory levels late Friday night through Saturday morning. Confidence is high enough that we issued a Cold Weather Advisory from 06Z-18Z Saturday. It looks like we should stay above criteria late tonight into Friday morning and late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Guidance is in general agreement in a band of light snow or flurries moving southeast across the northeast half of the Quad State beginning in the late evening along I-64 in southern Illinois and continuing into Friday morning over the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. There is a 20-50% chance of measurable snow that would provide a light coating on top of the existing snowpack. The best chance will be over the Pennyrile Friday morning. Given the current state of travel across the region, little impact is expected.

A large upper trough will rotate southward over the Quad State Friday night. Isolated light snow showers will be possible, but the chance of measurable snow is 20% or less. A few locations may receive an additional dusting, but no impacts are expected.

An upper-level disturbance will move eastward into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, the general consensus is that any associated precipitation will remain north of the area, but the northern half of the region still has a 20-30% chance of another light dusting of snow Sunday night. Once again, no impacts are expected.

The "best" chance of substantial precipitation will be late Tuesday through Wednesday, but it is not that great either. Disturbances in the northern and southern flows will attempt to phase together over the Mississippi Valley, which creates considerable uncertainty in any precipitation, let alone precipitation type. Warm advection seems to be the primary forcing mechanism which could result in much of the region climbing above freezing whether snow, sleet, or rain falls. However, the 12Z ECENS keeps temperatures at or below freezing, so at this point there is a "chance" of some more tangible wintry precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. We will keep an eye on it.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Guidance had been hinting at an MVFR deck near KPAH/KCGI late this afternoon and evening, but it hasn't yet materialized and have low confidence on it occurring. Main impact to terminals tonight appears to be a band of light snow that develops and pivots south later this evening and into Friday morning. KEVV/KOWB appear to be the most likely terminals to be impacted by possible vsby reductions. Can't rule out some MVFR cigs for a short while, but tend to think we largely stay VFR. Light northeast winds tonight will pick up out of the north after daybreak to around 10 kts with some gusts to 15 kts, especially at KCGI/KPAH. Finally, there is some potential at MVFR cigs developing later in the day at northern terminals so included TEMPO mention for now

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Friday night to noon CST /1 PM EST/ Saturday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for KYZ001>022.