textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle and light rain will gradually diminish across the region this morning, but cloudy conditions will remain in place throughout the day.

- Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday (90-100% chance) as a north-south oriented line of showers and storms traverse the Quad State. The storms will be slow-moving, likely lingering into Wednesday. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 1 to 1.5 inch range. There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes the main concerns.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. There is a 60-90% chance of max wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.Stronger gusts will be possible in the line of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Low overcast is hanging with us today amid a warm advective layer about 925mb. Satellite shows drier air/better mixing just southeast of the area and that should start to work into western Kentucky and spread the rest of the area through late afternoon but some overcast will likely persist across SEMO/Southern Illinois much of the night.

The main focus of the current forecast is the very large and deep trough ejecting off the Rocky Mountains in NM/CO this afternoon. That trough is expected to continue to be booted eastward by 100-110kt jet behind it. This swings the trough to a negative tilt as it moves into the southern Plains and mid- Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon. The jet-level ascent picture develops to provide a parent surface low well to the north but also would generate some troughing or a secondary low near the area or perhaps slightly south to southeast of us in the evening.

There is definitely some degree of severe thunderstorm potential with the passage of the front in the afternoon and early evening. Instability is the main limiting factor. Mid-level lapse rates are quite poor owing to the moist/semi- tropical airmass being dragged in ahead of the system. Low level moisture return is limited by the southeast winds initally drawing from relatively dry air over MS/AL. Dewpoints do work into the low to mid 60s in most available guidance as richer moisture eventually works into the low levels. This yields about 300-400 J/kg of entrainment factored CAPE as convection moves into the area.

0-6km shear is about 40-50 knots with 850mb flow increasing to 40 to 45 kts as well giving a pretty large hodograph curvature. I am a little concerned the strong large scale ascent from the negative tilt trough could cause lapse rates to be steeper than modeled, although it would have a lot to overcome to make for an appreciable increase in instability. I expect convection may struggle and only be pseudo-surface based but the shear will be strong enough we will have to watch very closely through the day for any breakthrough severe risk with tornado and wind the main concern. Will need to watch obs trends and future CAM runs for any trends that might suggest things going one way or the other. The background winds will be strong and gusty 25-35 mph but for now with limited mixing I think the odds of advisory level gusts (40 mph) are too low. Locally heavy rainfall looks probable but the system will probably be progressive enough given the dry antecedent conditions to prevent a significant flood risk.

Behind the front cooler and relatively stable conditions with seasonable temperatures look to set up shop. Another front looks possible Sunday that seems to have a shot of colder air behind it that might result in overnight frost/freeze conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFR/Low MVFR overcast is holding on right now. Some drier air is working in from the southeast that should allow slightly deeper mixing from southeast to northwest through the day and eventually improve ceilings and visibility but it will probably take several more hours to see significant improvements. Outlook is VFR with 3500-4000 cigs overnight, but be alert for that to lower a little. VFR conditions initially tomorrow with strong gusty winds getting going by late morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.