textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will largely remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the next week with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. A few record highs are possible, particularly Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. This is when we have the greatest odds (50-80% chance) of reaching 85 degrees across portions or all of the region.

- Chances for showers and storms (30-50%) return Friday afternoon and evening, mainly for areas north and west of the Ohio River.

- A somewhat unsettled weather pattern returns early next week with chances of showers and storms (30-50%) for Sunday night into Monday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Near zonal flow aloft will transition to southwesterly by Sunday into next weekend as we find ourselves positioned between ridging in the southeast U.S. and troughing out west. This will lead to a more unsettled pattern taking shape with multiple chances for showers and storms next week.

Our first chance for rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weak cold front sinks south into the Quad State region. Moisture looks rather limited with this boundary, so we may struggle to get much more than a tenth to quarter of an inch and this will primarily be confined north and west of the Ohio River. The LREF grand ensemble only has a 30-50% chance at greater than a tenth of an inch in these areas. While a few thunderstorms are possible, instability looks quite weak, so severe storms are not expected. Some of the activity may linger into Friday night and even Saturday with the boundary nearby. Surface flow will return to a southerly component on Saturday (at least across our southern half) as the front lifts back north.

Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday night into Monday, primarily forced by warm air advection in the deepening southwesterly flow aloft. As the ridge builds across the southeast U.S. this activity should largely get shunted further north and west Monday night into Tuesday. We continue to monitor a more potent system mid next week that could result in our greatest rain chances of the period. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists in this time period though, with the parent surface low ejecting well to our northwest and timing discrepancies with the cold frontal passage. While a few strong to severe storms are possible from Tuesday night through Wednesday (as highlighted by the SPC Day 7 with 15% severe probs), confidence remains quite low. The CSU-MLP severe probs basically have nothing in our area and a broad 5% risk from central IL/IN into New England. Something to monitor to see how it trends though.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, generally running 10 to 15 degrees above mid April normals. A few record highs and warm lows are possible from Sunday through Wednesday. NBM has much of west KY, southeast IL, and southwest IN with a 50-80% chance to reach 85 degrees on Sunday, while much of the region has a 60-80% chance on Tuesday and only slightly lower on Wednesday. Record highs are generally in the 84-88 range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. SKC this afternoon will give way to increasing high cloud overnight into Friday morning, eventually becoming mid cloud in the northwest. Southwest winds will remain gusty this afternoon, with gusts of 15-22 kts. Winds will decrease to around 5-8 kts this evening into overnight before increasing again Friday morning with 15-20 kt gusts expected. Any -SHRA should hold off until after 18z to enter our northwest tomorrow.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.