textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will approach normal levels Tuesday and well above normal by Thursday when upper 50s to near 60 are expected.

- Showers will overspread the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Some locations may receive a half inch or more of rain, and a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- A brief cool down is expected Friday, then it's back above normal for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A warming trend is underway as breezy SSW winds today arrive with the upper trough departing to the east. High pressure is positioned over much of the country with a large ridge in the west which has funneled an atmospheric river to the Pacific Northwest. After a brutally cold weekend, temperatures will rise to near normal tonight/Tuesday. Models are increasingly showing signs of a stratus layer moving in tonight, lingering through the day tomorrow, which would result in lows nudging warmer tonight and cooler highs for Tuesday. Only the NAM is showing any potential for precip Tuesday so that is left out.

Continued warming will lift temperatures to well above normal midweek. Better moisture enters the area and multiple models produce spotty rainfall Wednesday with a weak shortwave. The NBM favors Western Kentucky for slight chance PoPs Wednesday morning while keeping other areas dry. This area could expand as we move closer but any rainfall amounts will be unimpactful.

A developing low pressure system in the Northern Plains Wednesday night will steer moisture flow from the Gulf northward along the Mississippi River Valley and make for widespread rain Thursday. A frontal passage will bring a chance of thunder, but dew points "only" in the lower 50s (while certainly an impressive increase compared to current single digit values) and CAPE values around 100J/kg would keep strong to severe weather from materializing if that holds, despite plenty good shear and lift. Gradient winds Thursday of 25-35mph are likely. A brief switchover to light snow Thursday evening as the system departs is possible but won't lead to accumulations.

Temperatures drop to slightly below normal Thursday night into Friday following the front but bounce back for the weekend as the upper levels quickly return to zonal flow. High pressure keeps conditions dry Friday into the start of the weekend. After which, a system moving across Canada and/or a weak shortwave in the Southern Plains may contribute to rain chances for the end of the weekend into early next week. A prolonged period of slight chance to chance PoPs cover for ensemble spread in this, mainly focused (for the Quad State) over Western Kentucky, but will most likely coalesce into one or two more focused time periods. Above normal temperatures are projected for the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The main concern for this forecast cycle is the potential for MVFR ceilings to work eastward through/across the region late tonight and especially Tuesday. Guidance is not overly committed to the ceilings, but there is an area of MVFR ceilings over southwest Missouri this evening, and that definitely lends confidence to the ceiling forecast. It looks like they would arrive late tonight at KCGI and would then overspread the other sites through the morning. Once they arrive, they are not likely to dissipate. KMVN may be on the northwest edge of the cloud deck, so did not hit it as hard there.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.