textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally quiet weather with near normal temperatures is forecast through the next seven days. Most areas will see a quarter of an inch or less of rainfall.

- A small (10-20%) chance of showers is forecast late tonight north of Interstate 64, followed by another chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders.

- A second low-end chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday night across the Interstate 64 corridor, the Evansville Tri-State, and the KY Pennyrile.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Generally quiet/benign weather is expected this weekend through Friday. The synoptic pattern will feature a stout H5 ridge across the western CONUS, while the eastern CONUS will be under H5 troughing. A couple of weak mid-level shortwaves (and associated surface lows and front) will bring small rain chances to the area, mainly through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near normal mid-May values (give or take 5 degrees or so).

Late tonight, a weak surface front will move into the area from the north. A weak surface inflection, could initiate isolated showers north of Interstate 64 (10-20% chance), but the great majority of the region will be dry. Sunday afternoon and night, the front will sink to near the AR/MO and KY/TN border areas. Another weak surface ripple along the front boundary will kick off a few more showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance), but again the great majority of the region will be dry. Areas that do see rain Sunday night will see a trace up to 0.10".

A second surface cold front will approach the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, initiating more isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Interstate 64 corridor, Evansville Tri-State, and KY Pennyrile. Moisture will again be lacking ahead of the front, so right now only a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast. Precipitation amounts look to be quite light again, only up to 0.10" in areas that do see rain.

Dry and seasonably mild weather is forecast for the rest of the work week behind the frontal passage. After seeing a few rounds of much needed-rain over the last couple of weeks, drought conditions may begin to worse again over the next week. Additionally, depending on the wind and RH forecast on Wednesday, fire weather may become an issue during the afternoon. As it stands, the NBM already has 25-30% minimum RH values forecast, which may trend lower with future updates.

Looking beyond the end of the forecast window, ensemble guidance is showing the ridge over the western CONUS will shift eastward and set up over the central CONUS by next weekend. This would bring a return of summertime temperatures. The NBM ensemble shows a 40-60% chance of highs in the 90s on Saturday, 5/16 and a 50-80% chance on Sunday, 5/17.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Low stratus decks across southeast MO and southern IL will continue to mix aways, with only a few FEW-SCT diurnal CU lingering east of the Mississippi River. As a cold front moves through the area overnight, prevailing light W-WSW winds around 4-9 kts will become light and variable tonight, then shift to the N-NNE after 12z, with speeds around 5-10 kts. Mid-level cloud decks will increase as well after 12z, with bases around 5-10 kft.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.