textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm day today gives way to a strong cold frontal passage this evening.

- There is a chance (20-40%) of thunderstorms ahead of the front across southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. Should these storms develop, there is the potential for a few strong to severe storms with a wind or hail threat.

- The cold front will lock in colder temperatures through the next several days with afternoon highs 47-54 Friday to Monday and lows well below freezing over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Cumulus is beginning to develop along a couple of lines, one from around Fulton, KY towards the Wabash River, and the latter from Doniphan, MO towards Salem, IL closer to a frontal boundary. Dew points have reached the mid to upper 50s in SEMO into far SW KY, and approach 55 across much of Southern Illinois, while the Evansville Tri-State and areas east of the eastern line of cumulus have 48-52 dew points.

On the synoptic scale, a broad upper level trough is digging into the Tennessee River Valley today. Surface low pressure is tracking east-southeastward through the Midwestern I-states passing to the north of the Quad State. Southwesterlies have been slower to ramp up than initially anticipated, but should gust to around 18-23mph this afternoon. These southwesterlies will bring in some moisture, but from Central Texas rather than the richer moisture from the Gulf that should stay south of here. Nevertheless, dew points should rise to the mid-upper 50s across most of the Quad State, with some 60 values in the south.

The new blend of short-range models with the REFS and HRRR produce around 1000J/kg of MLCAPE mid-afternoon through sunset. Effective bulk shear rises to 35-50kts late afternoon, mainly in the form of speed shear, while 0-3km shear is closer to 25kts. Mid-level lapse rates hold at around 7C/km through the afternoon. Severe weather potential remains limited and uncertain. There is concern about how far north upper 50s-near 60 dew points can reach, but the greater instability will be in the north. There is also potential for post-sunset activity to trend lighter fairly quickly, though that is more of a concern east of the Quad State. The main threat window locally for the Wabash River/LBL area eastward is 3-730pm. Some models, especially the HRRR, generate a few storms with the leading cloud band currently in the middle of the Quad State, but is very unlikely to amount to much before exiting the region. Some of the REFS members and the HRRR develop a broken line of storms with the trailing line of cumulus closer to the cold front. PoPs have been increased as there aren't really any completely dry runs anymore, though some models/ensemble members only have limited sub-severe storm development. Damaging winds remain the primary severe weather hazard, should a severe threat develop, though a cellular storm producing hail is also possible. STP is around 1, with SRH around 150-200m2/s2, just enough to keep tornadoes from being ruled out entirely.

A steady stream of northwesterly winds originating from the Hudson Bay tonight through Saturday will bring much colder temperatures. A weak upper shortwave passes through the trough tomorrow, which has resulted in more models producing a few showers over the Quad State. PoPs have been expanded through all but the southwestern corner, but amounts will be trivial and thunder is not anticipated. Highs top out in the lower half of the 50s tomorrow before falling to around freezing tomorrow night. Several days of cold weather are forecast with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday to Monday and lows bottom out well below freezing over the weekend. A cutoff low moving across the Southern Plains over the weekend might clip the southwestern corner of the Quad State with a few light showers Sunday night. Afterwards, dry conditions and ridging start next week with a warming trend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 EVV and OWB could see some thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of the impending cold front and afterwards some clouds just below 3kft for a few hours before they lift back to VFR. The severe threat continues to be low, but strong winds are still the main concern with these storms. Southwesterly winds will be breezy with gusts upwards of 20 kts expected through the evening and will shift to be out of the northwest once the cold front passes

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.