textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another wave of dangerously cold Arctic air will move into the region tonight. There is a 30-70% of sub-zero wind chills during the day Friday and a 40-80% chance of wind chills of -10 or lower on Saturday morning.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers will accompany the Arctic air's arrival. There is now a 25-50% of a dusting of snow falling on Friday across the entire region and a 15-25% of another dusting of snow on Saturday in southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile.

- While confidence is low, there is now a potential (20-40%) of a light wintry mix impacting the region Tuesday night into next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Weak high pressure over the Upper Midwest will provide another very chilly but quiet day of weather across the region. Locations along the AR/TN borders may sneak above freezing, but areas further north will only reach the middle to upper 20s. Unlike the past few days, cloud cover will be more widespread, which will limit snow pack melting and sublimation.

The much-advertised Arctic cold front will sweep through the region late tonight through early Friday morning. Temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around -10 to -15C during the day (around the 5th to 10th percentiles). Morning low temperatures will fall into the single digits to lower teens, and high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 20s. Blustery north winds will keep wind chill values in the single digits to just below zero through much of the day.

Robust CAA and mid-level forcing will cause isolated to scattered snow showers to develop as well, especially Friday morning. Ensemble guidance is now showing about a 25-50% chance of a trace/dusting of snow across the area. So far, there does not seem to be in the instability or low-level moisture needed for more convective snow squall activity that would cause a greater risk of travel impacts, but sometimes these setup do not become as apparent until a few hours before beginning. Model guidance is showing another vorticity max pivoting through southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile on Saturday, and ensemble guidance is now showing the potential (15-25%) for another round of snow showers to produce a dusting of snow in this area Saturday morning.

The peak of the Arctic cold will be on Saturday, and a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed Friday night into Saturday morning, when ensemble guidance shows a 40-80% of wind chill values below -10F or lower. Temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around -15 to -20C, which is around the 1st percentile. High temperatures on Saturday will only reach the upper 10s to lower 20s. As the deep troughing begins to retreat to the northeast, H5 heights will begin to rise Sunday into early next week. This will allow temperatures to begin to moderate closer to normal late January/early February values, but will still be about 10-15 degrees below normal.

Attention now turns to the next potential chance of widespread precipitation. Going into the early to middle part of next week, the synoptic pattern will transition back to a more zonal pattern. However, Arctic high pressure will be positioned across the Mid-Atlantic, providing a source of cold air. While confidence is low, ensemble guidance, led by the GFS, is starting to pick up on a surface low organizing across the Mid- to Deep South and south of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The current forecast as it stands now includes a 20-40% chance of a light wintry mix during this time, including light snow, freezing rain, plain rain. With nearly a week until this disturbance develops, the best thing to do will be to check back on the forecast as we go through into early next week, as the specifics and potential impacts of this system will likely fluctuate greatly between now and then.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

First concern is potential MVFR ceilings late this afternoon through the evening at KPAH and KCGI. No sign of it in observations at this time. Guidance more bullish for it at KPAH, so mentioned it there, but left it out at KCGI.

The second concern is a band of light snow expected to move southeast through at least KPAH, KEVV and KOWB where MVFR conditions are forecast. Elsewhere, it shouldn't amount to anything more than flurries with VFR conditions.

Light northeast winds over the first half of the period will become northerly and pick up close to 10kts with gusts over 15kts after daybreak.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.