textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There remains a marginal risk for severe weather across the far southeast Kentucky Pennyrile late this afternoon into the early evening. A weak spin up tornado and isolated damaging winds will be the primary hazards should a severe storm occur.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue. Saturday will be the driest day with only a 20-30% chance of an isolated shower or storm.

- Total avarege rainfall between 1 and 2.5 inches is forecast over the next week; localized higher totals could result in minor flood issues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Expect showers/maybe a thunderstorm as a wave lifts across the TN Valley thru this evening. It rides along and lifts a warm sector boundary, which models nudge its way into our southeastern Pennyrile counties. If so, and if BINOVC occurs in conjunction, there may juice up just enough instability for surface based convection, and if that happens, increasing mid level flow/shear atop it with some broadening of the hodograph due to the low/warm sector vicinity track increases helicity enough to warrant the SPC MRGL risk svr for isolated spinup/damaging winds; a non-zero chance. Primarily it's a good soaking rain potential with the NAEFS E-SAT still indicating high 99th percentile PW's in excess of 1.75" yielding 5-10 yr return intervals suggestive of localized flooding potential, although overall it's generally welcome overtop our driest grounds in the CWA still running D3 across southern Ky.

The aforementioned represents the first in a succession of rounds or chance rounds of pcpn over the holiday weekend. It won't be entirely wet despite the daily chances though, as much of Saturday looks dry for much of the area, despite small chances that exist. Most ensuing daily chances come either with a wave/its presence or the diurnal breathing cycle (and/or both), beginning with next best chances over the back half of the weekend. Chances swell again in the mid week portion of the forecast, although if the developing Rex block pattern that looks like is taking shape changes its synoptic feature modeling latitudinally or longitudinally even just a little bit, this will greatly affect our pops forecast. Otherwise it looks steady as she goes on the new week's forecast with daily highs near 80F or in the lower 80s and lows that'll start running nightly in the mid-upper 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Expect showers with deteriorated/restricted cigs and vsbys as a wave lifts across the TN Valley thru early this evening. Afterward, pcpn chances dwindle but low based cigs and restricted vsbys continue overnight. Conditions improve from IFR to MVFR with daybreak tmrw, working their way toward but not quite to VFR (cigs) thru the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.