textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of light snow tonight in southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and portions of southern Illinois north of Route 13. Some accumulating snow is expected across parts of southwest Indiana.

- Significantly colder air will spread across the region this weekend with the coldest temperatures Saturday night into Sunday. Dangerously cold wind chill values and impactful air temperatures are reasonably likely.

- Gradual warming begins early next week, with a chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Main near-term forecast focus is on the Alberta Clipper moving in from the northwest late this afternoon and tonight. The model trend with this system is further southwest and QPF/snowfall forecasts have adjusted accordingly. There is a broad WAA and associated isentropic lift field to the south of the main thermal gradient over most of our CWA with improving frontogenetic forcing sneaking towards our southwest Indiana counties. While lift is pretty good the lowest 100mb or so of the atmosphere is quite dry and precip onset may take a little while to get going, although marginal temperatures will likely be aided by a little wet-bulb cooling. Ground temperatures are relatively warm, but not as warm as they were during the light snow a week or so ago.

With the snowfall axis shifting slightly southwest after collaboration with regional neighbors will add Pike Co.,IN to a winter weather advisory for snow accumulations although it may end up just southwest of the more appreciable accums.

The next and probably more impactful element is the exceptional, quick-hitter cold snap coming for the weekend. A cold front (being pushed by a 1045ish mb high pressure system being driven out of the front range of the Canadian Rockies) slams into the area Saturday during the day. The airmass from where this system is coming from is sitting at a balmy -45 degrees F this morning. If the front comes through a little quicker than modeled, as these systems tend to do, highs will struggle to break above freezing Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday night look to produce single digit lows, while Sunday maximums range from 15 to 25 degrees. Wind chill values Saturday night look to fall below zero. An extreme cold watch was considered but its still just a little too early. However, breaking warning criteria (-10 to -15) seems possible, and advisory criteria (roughly 0) seems very likely over a good chunk of the area. The larger- scale pattern does appear favorable for at least a few ripples of lift that may lead to light snowfall and possible accumulations, particularly in the northeastern quarter of the area.

The ridge driving all of this does appear to succeed in dethroning the seemingly semi-permanent trough over the upper Great Lakes and Hudson Bay region and we get into a more rippled zonal flow that results in overall temperature moderation with temperatures returning to at or a little above normal into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Have some lingering high MVFR cigs that should lift to VFR shortly at northern terminals. A clipper system approaching from the northwest will spread a band of light snow across far northern portions of our region late this afternoon into the evening. The bulk of this may stay north of the terminals, with KEVV seeing the best chance. Brief reduction in vsby and cigs to MVFR is possible, but the bulk of the lower restrictions to IFR should stay north of the terminals. Quite a bit of variability in the winds, but generally some form of southerly direction until the frontal passage occurs overnight into tomorrow morning when winds switch around out of the N/NW. Guidance is hinting at an MVFR deck sinking south into our northern terminals late morning tomorrow.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for INZ082. KY...None.