textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant cooling trend will continue through Monday, with temperatures by Sunday through Monday night 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

- Warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday, with temperatures then remaining above normal Thursday and Friday.

- Small chances (15-25%) of light rain showers late tonight into Saturday, mainly across west Kentucky, southeast Missouri and extreme southern Illinois.

- Better chances of rain (30-70%) return Wednesday night into Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A weak mid level disturbance will bring small chances (15-25%) of light showers to southern portions of the area late tonight, mainly across west Kentucky into southeast Missouri and extreme southern Illinois. Models have been trending lower and farther south with these chances with each run due to lacking moisture. Most areas will be hard pressed to see more than a sprinkle. Temperatures in areas that could see a little precipitation will remain just above freezing, so no wintry impacts are expected. Some sprinkles may pop up Saturday afternoon across southern portions of west Kentucky into extreme southeast Missouri, but should produce nothing more than trace amounts.

Colder air will continue to surge into our region through the weekend as surface high pressure continue to build south out of Canada. The cooling trend will continue through the weekend into next Monday. High temperatures by Sunday will range from the lower 30s northeast to the middle 40s southwest, with Monday highs in the 30s. Lows Sunday night and Monday night will be in the middle teens to around 20 degrees. These values are 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Fortunately on Tuesday, winds will shift to the south, which will be the start of a warming trend into Wednesday, then readings will remain above normal through the end of the week.

By mid to late week, models bring a low pressure system into the southern Great Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the PAH forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Shower chances Wednesday night will range from 30-40% in portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois to 60-70% in west Kentucky. Chances will gradually decrease from west to east Thursday into Thursday night, with dry conditions for Friday. Rainfall totals at this point are not too impressive, ranging from less than a tenth of an inch in much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, to just over half an inch in most of west Kentucky and a small portion of southwest Indiana.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mid- and upper-level cloud cover will increase in coverage tonight through the day Saturday as a weak disturbance passes south of the area. Cloud bases will stay around 5kft or higher. Mentionable precipitation chances will stay south of the terminals. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then increase from the north around 5-10 kts Saturday afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.