textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will increase from the south tonight into Friday at or around 15 to 20 mph, strongest over southern IL into southwest IN. Gusts may approach 40 mph (50-60% chance) late tonight into Friday. That would be near Wind Advisory Criteria. - A strong cold front will sweep through the region Sunday afternoon and evening bringing a good chance (60%-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms may be possible, but confidence is low at this time.

- Rain may mix with or change over to light snow Sunday night into Monday morning as colder air filters into the area. Light accumulations are possible, mainly on grassy surfaces. There is roughly a 20-40% chance that up to a half inch of snow could fall over southern IL into southwest IN.

- Cold temperatures are expected for the beginning of next week. Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s and lows in the 20s! There is a 40-60% chance lows dip below 20 degrees across the northern half of the region Monday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The rapid roller coaster of early spring looks likely to apply to the rest of the upcoming forecast period. A strong 150 kt northwesterly jet is storming over the Rockies today that will spin up a fast moving "Manitoba Mauler" into the western Great Lakes. This will pick up our winds overnight a little. As the sun starts to come up gusts of 30 to 35 mph appear possible before the storm departs to the east.

The next item of concern is a powerful storm system and cold front this weekend. There is good agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance that a very strong and large trough digs into the central plains and all the way into northern Mexico by Sunday night. The timing and placement of the trough spins up a very deep low level cyclone and trough over the upper midwest with ensemble mean MSLPs around 990, but deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance have painted surface lows deepening towards 980 mb as they move northeast across Illinois and Iowa. This creates an exceptional shear environment for storms ahead of a powerful cold front. Moisture return is limited with dewpoints painted into the upper 50s, which would result in very limited boundary layer instability. If the dewpoints overachieve and end up closer to 60 or 62 we would have a rather favorable environment for wind or isolated tornado with fairly deep decent moisture to prevent significant entrainment related issues. It hearkens a bit to the 3-3-2023 day with very modest CAPE but deep mixing and exceptional wind fields. Gradient level winds over advisory criteria appear likely if nothing else.

Once the low clears a much colder airmass sweeps in behind the front that looks to drop us below freezing for the first time in a while. Residual lift and moisture under the trough and from low-level deformation forcing look to give us a reasonable chance of at least some snow behind this system with at least some light accumulation possible on Monday. Exceptionally windy conditions, at least advisory criteria, look to follow behind the front and we will need to watch for narrow window for high wind warning level wind to emerge. Although this system may not be quite deep enough to produce that when comparing it to other similar strength lows that the region has experienced. We have a couple of cold days under cyclonic flow aloft before things start to warm back up into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

South to southwest winds will increase between 03z-08z from 10kts or less to 10-20kts with gusts of 25-33kts. The highest gusts will be between 07z-17z, accompanied by LLWS from southwest at 45-50kts. Winds will shift to the west and gradually decrease after 15z-17z. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.