textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow chances have increased for this evening (40-50%). Snow amounts ranging from a dusting to less than half an inch are possible. Travel impacts should remain minimal.

- Our bitter cold temperatures will moderate early in the week with an 80-100% chance of highs reaching above freezing Monday and Tuesday. There is even a greater than 50% chance at some areas of west KY and southeast MO reaching 40 degrees.

- Some light precipitation, in the form of rain or snow, remains possible Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) of receiving measurable snow from this event are across the Evansville Tri-State region.

- Despite some moderation, temperatures over the next 7 days will likely remain below normal. The only exception may be Friday. Normal highs are in the mid 40s with normal lows in the mid to upper 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The deep upper low over the Carolinas will depart off the East Coast Today. Meanwhile, another weak disturbance over the Upper Midwest will dive southeast into the Ohio Valley region through tonight. The latest guidance suggests an increased chance for light snow occurring across our region this evening (maybe sneaking into the far northwest by late afternoon). The probability of receiving measurable snow is roughly 40-60% across much of southern IL and southwest IN, with lesser chances further south. While most areas probably only receive a dusting to a few tenths, it's certainly possible a few locales receive a half inch or so. Not really expecting much in the way of travel impacts, but some slippery spots may develop given temperatures in the low to mid 20s this evening.

Upper level heights rise on Monday as the flow relaxes and becomes more zonal for a brief period. Southerly winds at the surface will help usher in above freezing temperatures, which will be the first time since January 22nd in some locations of southern IL and southwest IN including KEVV. NBM guidance even suggests a greater than 50% chance of highs reaching 40 across portions of west KY and southeast MO on Tuesday. Should be some good snow melt going on during this time period.

We continue to monitor another light precipitation event that may produce a light wintry mix across our area on Tuesday. Confidence remains somewhat lower given the system is essentially two different pieces of energy that attempt to phase across our area. Both are currently off the West Coast. They move onshore over the next 24 hours, so should be able to get a better handle on it by Monday AM. The latest run of models has shown a bit of an uptick in QPF, with the 00z ECENS giving a 50-60% chance of at least a tenth of an inch across west KY, with probabilities tapering off rather quickly to the north and west. Temperatures will likely be above freezing during this event, so even if the thermal profile aloft supports snow across our northern cwa, we likely will struggle to get much in the way of accumulation with it. NBM probabilities of observing measurable snow are roughly 20-40% across southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY.

Mid to late week will feature upper ridging across the Western U.S. and troughing across the East. We will largely be in northwest flow aloft during this period. Looks mainly dry but can't rule out some very light precipitation. After the warm-up Mon/Tues, temperatures will trend down somewhat again Wed-Thurs but highs should still primarily be in the 30s except maybe in the north on Wed. Friday looks like the warmest day of the week ahead of another cold frontal passage. Highs may even reach the 50s in portions of southeast MO, while 40s are a good bet across the rest of the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 955 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Low VFR lake effect clouds and perhaps a few flurries will continue overnight. A weak impulse will bring an increase in mid- level cloud decks after 18z Sunday, and model guidance is increasingly depicting a band or two of light to moderate snow (with low VFR or MVFR cig/vsby restrictions) passing from west to east across the area mainly between 22-06z. Have maintained PROB30 to show this potential of -SN. Ongoing W-NW winds around 4-8 kts will become S after 18z around 4-8 kts

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.