textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather with above normal temperatures by 10-20 degrees will continue this weekend into most of next week. Record high temperatures are possible Sunday and again Tuesday-Wednesday.

- Other than a small chance (10-20%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms today, dry weather is expected this weekend.

- Periods of unsettled weather are forecast Monday (30-50%) and again Wednesday (30-50%), Thursday (40-60%), and Friday (30-50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The forecast for the next week will be driven by the interaction between persisting ridging across the southeast CONUS and troughing across the Intermountain West. Initially, surface low disturbances and associated cold fronts will develop on the lee side of the mountains and attempt push into the region from the NW, but will encounter resistance from the ridging through mid- week. However, ensemble guidance indicates this ridge will break down for the middle to end of next week, allowing for a cold front or too to move into the region bringing much-needed rainfall. Temperatures will remain warm and roughly 10-20 degrees above average until the next week, when a cool down back to typical mid-April temperatures is forecast.

Surface warm front positioned across the region will lift north later today. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected, but the great majority of the region will stay dry. Sunday will be dry and very warm (near record highs in the mid to upper 80s) as the ridging increases. A cold front will attempt to move into the region Monday, but it will wash out as it encounters the ridge. While the region has a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms forecast now, this may be overdone, and forecast rain amounts look quite light (only 0.10" or less). Temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday will again climb into the middle to upper 80s, near record high values again.

Wednesday night through Friday night, the ridging across the southeast CONUS will begin to break down, and a cold front with some upper-level support will being to push into the region. At this time, the best forcing will be on Thursday, so would not be surprised to see the current SPC slight risk for Wednesday slip a day with the next update. Precipitation chances will linger into Friday and next weekend, but this is likely an artifact of timing differences amongst the model guidance and will trend drier as forecast confidence increases. While any rain will be helpful for the ongoing drought conditions, ensemble guidance is not very expected about heavy rainfall prospects. The NBM ensemble only shows a 25-50% of rainfall amounts over a half inch during the Wednesday-Friday unsettled period at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A few showers may briefly pass through the TAF sites tonight into early Saturday morning; however, confidence is low enough (less than 15% chance) to leave out of this issuance. VFR ceilings and visibilities will be the rule; however, a brief period of MVFR may brush past CGI/MVN late tonight. Winds will remain light through this TAF issuance.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.