textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions can be expected today, with a Heat Advisory in effect from 11am through 8pm, though afternoon thunderstorms will end heat issues earlier in affected areas.

- 20-50% chances showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region today, with chances peaking at 60-90% late tonight through Thursday night with the slow passage of a cold front.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible across most of our region today, mainly from mid afternoon through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will again be possible mainly Thursday afternoon across southeast Missouri, far west Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois. Damaging winds are the primary concerns today and Thursday.

- On and off chances of showers and storms will continue Friday and Saturday.

- After a brief return of near seasonable temperatures Friday, above normal temperatures return over the weekend into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Breezy southwesterly winds today have advected in warmer and moister air, pushing high temperatures to the mid to upper 90s for much of the Quad State with dew points in the lower to middle 70s. Heat indices are likely to reach 102 to 108 today. However, convective activity is increasing and areas which receive moderate to heavy rain and/or thunderstorms will see an earlier end to heat issues today. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8pm today.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast through the afternoon into the early evening as a boundary progresses southward across the Quad State. Later in the evening into the overnight hours, this boundary shifts back northward with smaller chances of showers and storms. Shower/storm potential peaks late night into the morning hours Thursday in the north, with the cold front then shifting back southward through the Quad State during the day Thursday.

Decent instability is forecast today, though shear is limited. A few strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon through the early evening, mainly diurnally driven with 1000-1200J/kg DCAPE making downburst winds the primary severe weather hazard. A marginal risk covers nearly all of the Quad State today. Another marginal risk area covers SEMO and adjacent portions of WKY and SIL for tomorrow's activity, but model support is less consistent for that timeframe. Should stronger storms materialize tomorrow, damaging wind gusts will again be the primary severe weather hazard.

There is some potential for training showers and storms, with the best potential across the north late tonight into tomorrow. QPF totals of a half inch to an inch are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible. Given recent dry weather, it is unlikely that any flooding issues develop beyond nuisance ponding on roads. A marginal risk ERO covers the Quad State today and tomorrow.

With the front positioned near the KY/TN border Friday, rain chances are increasing and highest in Western Kentucky (50-70%). Temperatures finally fall to near normal Friday with highs in the mid-80s. Don't get too used to it though as the front lifts back north Saturday and the weekend to early next week sees a return to highs in the lower 90s. Saturday precip chances are split between the Southern Pennyrile seeing continued moisture advection from the Lower Mississippi, and northwestern areas possibly seeing showers from a weakening system approaching from the northwest.

Sunday and Monday are currently projected to be dry, in the middle of systems in the southeastern U.S. and a front stretching from the Front Range to the Upper Midwest. Upper Midwest low pressure moving eastward should cause that front to drift towards the Quad State, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

As our initial round of convection winds down early this evening, a brief lull is expected before more showers with embedded thunderstorm develop overnight through most of the morning and early afternoon hours Thursday. This activity will impact all terminals, but MVN, EVV, and OWB may see some MVFR cigs Thursday morning in addition to the precipitation. Light S-SW winds overnight will become W to NW Thursday afternoon as a frontal boundary moves south into the area.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.