textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A potent disturbance will impact the area today with the precipitation beginning as snow or a rain/snow mix in the morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible, particularly across areas near Interstate 64 today where a winter weather advisory has been issued. Isolated travel impacts are possible with brief periods of heavy snow and the possibility of some mixing of sleet.

- Continued below normal temperatures will continue into early next week, ahead of another system that is set to bring additional chances of wintry weather to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 543 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Flurries are approaching the northwestern border of the CWA early this morning. With southeasterly winds at the surface and warm air advection, temperatures across the Quad State are generally holding in the mid to upper 30s. Dew points are in the lower 20s in the east up to around 30 in SEMO's western four counties.

On the synoptic scale, fairly zonal flow locally contains a slight difluent pattern moving east of the area while a shortwave trough moves through the Central Plains. Gulf moisture is pulled northward into Missouri early this morning while the low pressure system tracks from Southern Kansas northeastward today towards Chicago. High pressure to the east is responsible for dry air in eastern portions of the Quad State. A NW/SE warm front lifts through the forecast area today, roughly positioned near the Mississippi River at this time, with drier air to the east and (comparatively) moist air to the southwest. Models are in fairly strong agreement on positioning of precipitation but still have some variation in temperature and thus precip type. Temperatures are running on the high side so far. While some models show substantial wet-bulbing with the arrival of more moderate snowfall rates, that may be optimistic for amount of cooling, and the forecast trend is warmer with less snowfall.

Northern portions of SEMO and much of Southern Illinois will start out with snow, transitioning to rain later this morning following the warm frontal passage. Elsewhere, some light snow is possible, but accumulations in those areas should be a dusting on grassy surfaces at the most. Areas near the warm front and with better vorticity can see some heavier bursts of snow which can lead to brief impactful conditions on roads and sidewalks. The I-64 corridor of Southern Illinois has the best chance of seeing accumulations up to 1-2 inches and the winter weather advisory remains in effect from Jefferson to Wabash Counties. A brief mixing/transition to sleet is possible but for the most part p-types should be snow to rain today. Rain is expected over the entire Quad State midday through the evening hours with highs in the near 40 to mid-40s range, bringing an end to any impactful road conditions. Arrival times for rainfall in the east have shifted a bit later and overall QPF is reduced as the low pressure center is slightly north of earlier forecasts. Additionally, winds will be breezy today, with gusts up to 25-35 mph in Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri.

Winds shift to westerly to west-northwesterly tonight with a cold frontal passage. A brief transition back to light snow is possible but no additional accumulation is expected. Temperatures cool down for the remainder of the weekend and early next week as northerly flow Sunday precedes high pressure.

Uncertainty continues with an early week system. Gulf moisture streams into the Deep South with a low pressure system. Meanwhile, troughing to the west sends low pressure into the Central Plains. Models vary with the interaction and timing of these streams. The GFS is most aggressive with bringing wintry weather to the Quad State while the other ensembles are less active. The NBM appears higher on snowfall than all of the ensemble means, which may partly be due to blending cooler/drier runs with warmer/moister runs. Further complicating things, there are some ensemble members producing a bit of freezing rain. Some amount of wintry precipitation is to be expected, but degree of impacts needs fine tuning. The system is rather quick moving, exiting Tuesday morning. Should there be snow cover, temperatures will become quite cold mid-week. Another messy split stream pattern may set up late week which is responsible for some low end PoPs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Showers are on the western edge of the Quad State early this morning. Precipitation type is likely to be snow in northern portions of SEMO and S Illinois while elsewhere rain with perhaps a few flurries is more likely. Late morning, snow switches to rain everywhere for the remainder of the day. Southeasterly winds become breezy this morning, then shift towards westerly late in the forecast period. Vsby drops accompany heavier precipitation and cigs lower to IFR with the evening frontal passage.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ075>078. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.