textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected this morning (40-80% chances), with slightly lower chances (30-55%) from midday into early this evening. Large hail will be possible with these storms.

- Scattered showers and storms return Friday afternoon (30-40% chances), then chances will increase significantly late Friday night into Saturday (70-85% chances) with the approach and passage of a cold front.

- High temperatures will be near record readings Friday ahead of the cold front.

- A significant cool down is expected over the weekend, then we will see a warming trend next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are developing over south central Missouri this afternoon just ahead of a shortwave trough embedded in the broader flow over western Missouri. These storms are on the edge of an area of richer lower level moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The position and strength of the upper trough are yielding 3-6km lapse rates around 7 to 7.5 degC. Deep layer shear is sufficient at about 30 to 35 kts and should improve some through the afternoon. MLCAPEs are around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. This looks like a pretty favorable setup for hail, and fairly modest looking radar presentations have already produced hail with activity starting over MO. Low-level thermodynamics are also supportive of some wind damage/downburst potential with stronger storms. Generally expecting storms to increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple hours and bring a few hours threat of severe storms (wind/hail) mainly over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky this afternoon.

Another trough moving in from the west brings lower end rain/storm chances in the afternoon tomorrow but better chances overnight into Saturday morning. Right now the peak of activity is progged to move in early Saturday morning at relative minima for heating which may limit severe weather potential but deep and low layer shear is strong enough we will need to continue to monitor for any thermodynamic changes that might increase our chances.

A cold front moves in behind the storms Saturday sweeping in more seasonable air. Cooler temperatures persist through the middle of the week before things start to warm up as we approach the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR expected through the period tonight and into Friday. High level clouds will increase tonight and will continue into Friday afternoon. Confidence remains low in SHRA/TSRA development Friday afternoon with recent guidance showing limited if any development across the area. Light winds tonight will see south winds pick up late morning to around 10-13 kts with higher gusts 20-25 kts. Gusts will diminish after 00z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.