textproduct: Paducah
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Daily shower and storm chances (30-60%) will continue through Monday; although, there will be less coverage on Sunday. Chances of seeing a half inch of rain or greater are around 40-50% over west Kentucky into southeast Missouri through that time period with 15- 30% probabilities elsewhere.
- Drier air arrives Tuesday through much of next week, allowing for warmer conditions with little to no rain.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Increased moisture and humid conditions will linger through Monday with a frontal boundary and low pressure system nearby. Chances for showers and storms will be around 30-40% today before dropping to around 15 to 20% Sunday. The frontal boundary that is focusing the showers and few thunderstorms today will weaken and lose its definition tonight into Sunday allowing the chances of rain to diminish. By Monday, a warm front will lift northeast toward the area before stalling out across the Quad State. This will lead to the uptick in precipitation chances through the day Monday. Heavy downpours and lightning will be the main concerns with any of the storms. PWAT values are still pushing into the 90th percentile (1.5- 2"), which again supports heavy downpour potential. Weak flow/shear will lead to slow or nearly stationary movement, allowing for localized heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding issues.
The chances for showers diminish Tuesday through Thursday with less humid conditions in place. This will be a result of a cold front drifting south through the area and dry high pressure building in from the north. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s to low 80s through the whole forecast period, but the more noticeable drop in humidity will arrive around Tuesday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
MVFR/VFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected through this TAF issuance. A few showers may impact the terminals this morning before the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon. Kept a prob30 at CGI/PAH as they have the best chance of seeing a thunderstorm or two, even though overall confidence is fairly low. Any thunderstorm could produce very heavy downpours and would briefly impact visibilities. Winds are expected to remain light.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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