textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday for a prolonged dangerous heatwave with daily heat index values ranging from 103-109 degrees. There is a 40-60% chance of needing to extend advisory level heat headlines into Sunday.

- Multiple consecutive days of near record high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees locally and several record warm overnight low temperatures in the mid 70s are probable. These high and low temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal, and will elevate heat impacts to an extreme level even more through the start of the holiday weekend. - Rain chances will not provide relief until Sunday at the earliest, with only a 20-30% chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch where isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms occur primarily on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Dangerous hot temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal will remain in place through Saturday with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for daily heat index values of 103-109 degrees. The stout 594 dm ridge is now peaking over the FA with daily maxTs maxing out in the upper 90s to 100 degrees locally. Extreme heat impacts remain more probable into the start of the holiday weekend as dewpoints have struggled to mix down into the upper 60s. This is due to a residual evapotranspiration in locations that saw recent heavy rainfall, while even locations that did achieve lower values still managed to near warning criteria. Given that the deep dry adiabatic soundings and robust mixing will persist, nudged maxTs up in our southern counties with CONSShort the next two days as they have been running cool on the NBM despite dewpoints remaining near 70. Would expect MaxTs to reach their peak by Thursday as we will no longer be mixing down anomalous 700 mb warm air aloft, while there will also be a subtle increase in dewpoint.

Even if some locations do not quite reach the 4 day criteria of 105, the extreme impacts are still going to be there. This is when you factor in consecutive record warm overnight low temperatures in the mid-70s, and a longer duration heatwave that is now progged to persist through at least Saturday. Although there is a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Saturday mainly northeast over southwest Indiana and portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky, it will not be enough to provide relief. Both the GFS/ECMWF do remain in better agreement with the ridge breaking down on Saturday that will send a shortwave downstream. There is a 20-30% chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch where isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms occur. Similar to Friday, the greatest probabilities will be focused northeast.

By Sunday, the current consensus is for a backdoor cold front to push southwest as the ridge retreats, but it doesn't quite reach the Mississippi. The probability on the LREF is 40-60% for needing to extend advisory level heat headlines for heat index values remaining at or above 100 degrees. The highest confidence is over SEMO, but uncertainty is high on where you drawl the cutoff further northeast as it depends on the location of the front. MaxTs only cool off a few degrees into the mid 90s, with lower 90s more favored for Labor Day as the heatwave finally comes to an end. The probability of high temperatures remaining below 95 degrees on the NBM is 70-90%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning with calm conditions. Winds will increase to 5-10 kts out of the south later today, with diurnal cu around 8-10 kft AGL. Winds diminish below 5 kts after sunset with clear skies.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.