textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather will continue through Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. A few sprinkles will be possible over the western half of the Quad State today.

- Temperatures will soar above normal Wednesday and Thursday, when highs will be in the middle to upper 80s over much of the region and lows will be in the 60s.

- Chances of showers return to the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday, and then more widespread showers are expected Thursday night through at least Friday. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Cool, dry surface high pressure will continue to build over the region, while a series of disturbances will bring a steady flow of mid-level clouds over much of the Quad State today. This may continue into Monday over southeast Missouri. A few light showers may produce sprinkles at a few locations today.

Over the Evansville Tri State area and portions of the Pennyrile, more sunshine is expected and strong mixing may take relative humidity down to 30% or less. Thankfully, winds will be light, so there should be no major fire weather concern. Temperatures will remain below normal today and Monday.

The surface high begins to loosen its grip on the region Tuesday and modest south winds will kick in on Wednesday leading to a significant warmup. Temperatures should reach normal Tuesday and then well above normal Wednesday and Thursday, when highs in the mid to upper 80s will be common. The 00Z GEFS has a 50-90% chance of reaching 90 over most of the region, while the NBM is a bit more conservative, in the 10-50% range. Moisture will be lagging the heat a bit, with dewpoints climbing to around 60 Wednesday and then into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday.

The general consensus of the 00Z guidance is to delay the onset of rain chances to late Wednesday night into Thursday, or possibly as late as Friday. The initial chances will still be mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A slower arrival certainly makes sense with that southern stream system being positively-tilted. In fact, much of the 00Z guidance lets the upper low sit over Texas Thursday into Saturday, then brings it northeast through the Quad State next Sunday and Monday. Expect the onset of PoPs to trend later with future forecast updates.

The NBM has PoPs beginning Wednesday night and continuing every period through next Sunday. There will be little, if any instability until the upper system arrives next weekend, so QPF should be light until then. A cold front should enter, if not pass through the region late in the week. However, with the lack of instability it is not likely to be a focus for thunderstorm development.

Once the system arrives, there is some potential that it will bring a healthy surface low northeast right through the Quad State. This could lead to some severe weather and heavy rainfall potential. That said the NBM's QPF averaging around 3" over the entire Quad State Wednesday night through next Sunday is way overdone in comparison to the latest guidance.

A stronger cold front will come in behind the system Sunday and bring an end to the precipitation and usher in more cool air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Mid-level ceilings and light northeast winds will be the rule through the period at KMVN, KCGI, and KPAH. Farther northeast scattered cirrus will prevail.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.