textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold this morning. Temperatures will approach normal levels Tuesday and well above normal by Thursday when upper 50s to lower 60s are expected.

- Showers will overspread the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Some locations may receive a half inch or more of rain, and a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- A brief cool down is expected Friday, then it's back above normal for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

It can get colder here, but not by a whole lot. Midnight air temps in southwest Indiana close to the ridge axis are between 0 and 5 increasing to about 10 to 12 in southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. It will get colder tonight, with dewpoints down between 0 and 5 and ideal radiational cooling conditions. The ridge mercifully slides southeast of us and puts us in warmer southwesterly return flow. This will mark the end of the last month or so of persistent cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay region keeping us in a below normal temperature regime and the upper air pattern becomes more zonal/progressive.

A weak shortwave moves overheat Tuesday night, with a stronger one Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance continues to come into better agreement on this trough shape and timing. It spins up a 990mb low over the western Great Lakes trailing a long cold front across the midwest and southern Plains. It would be a pretty good setup for severe except for the fact that two consecutive cold fronts have scoured the Gulf of moisture to the point it will probably take more than just a couple days to get sufficient moisture return into the region for instability. Mid-level lapse rates are ok, shear and lift are both very strong. Gusty southwest winds/wind advisory conditions appear possible. If the moisture return overachieves (into the 60s for dewpoints) then we may have a little bit of a problem setting up. Otherwise rain showers with scattered elevated thunderstorms look to be the main concern. Guidance has been very consistent in keeping moisture too limited however and it makes sense given the synoptic picture.

Another broad trough arrives for the weekend. This one looks like it could spark up a little more shower activity but lacks the deeper lift of the midweek trough for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1003 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions with primarily SKC through the period. Light winds tonight will become SSW around 9-11 kts on Monday, with some gusts around 20 kts possible during the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.