textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms (30-50%) return this afternoon and evening, mainly for areas north and west of the Ohio River.

- After a mainly dry weekend, rain chances (30-50%) return Sunday night into Monday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional rain chances appear increasingly likely during the latter part of next week as well.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend through next week. Highs will primarily range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. There is at least a 50% chance of reaching 85 degrees across portions of the region on Sunday and across more of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Record highs are possible these days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A frontal boundary draped just northwest of our cwa will sink southeast through the region this afternoon and evening. Moisture availability is limited but a narrow plume of upper 50 dewpoints will allow at least some scattered showers to develop across the area. Instability is quite weak, but there is just enough there to possibly produce a few isolated storms. Severe weather is not expected today. The front stalls out tonight into Saturday before lifting north again Saturday night into Sunday. Not expecting much in the way of rain during this period, but a few showers and possibly even a thunderstorm can't be ruled out with the boundary draped across the area.

Ridging aloft will build across the southeastern U.S. Sunday through next week. Meanwhile, troughing across the western U.S. will lead to several waves ejecting across the Central CONUS into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region through the period. Southwesterly flow will lead to good moisture transport into our area with dewpoints into the low to mid 60s much of next week.

While near daily chances for rain exist from Sunday night through the entirety of next week, amounts will likely be quite light through Tuesday. The NBM only gives us a 10-20% chance at observing a half inch from now through Tuesday. Meanwhile, the odds increase to 40-50% chance at receiving at least a half inch from Wednesday through Saturday next week. Our best chance of appreciable widespread rain the entire week may not occur until next Friday when a stronger cold front may sweep through the region. The frontal boundary on Wednesday appears more likely to remain north of our region, although it may still come close enough to allow convection to seep into parts of the Quad State. Southerly surface flow seems likely to remain in place through next Friday.

Temperatures will be well above normal through much of the next week with highs in the 80s most days. The current forecast has Paducah reaching 80 for 8 straight days, which hasn't happened in the month of April since 1977. Record highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible many days (Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday). West Kentucky and southwest Indiana have the best chance at hitting 85 on Sunday (50-80% chance via the NBM) while more of the region may reach that threshold on Tuesday (70-90% chance), Wednesday (60-80% chance), and Friday (70-80% chance). Certainly will feel more like June next week than April!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A frontal boundary sagging south into the region this afternoon will offer a chance for showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms, with some of this activity lingering into the evening. Sustained southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north behind the front this evening and overnight, before becoming east-southeasterly tomorrow morning. While mainly VFR conditions are expected, there is potential for a period of MVFR cigs late tonight into tomorrow morning primarily at western terminals (KMVN/KCGI).

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.