textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 15-25% chance of light rain showers tonight mainly north of the Ohio River.

- Unsettled weather is expected on Thursday with a 40-70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The risk of severe weather is a level 2/5, particularly in the Evansville Tri-State Region where damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and possibly some hail will all be possible.

- Temperatures trend much cooler this weekend with a 35-45% chance of light rain on Saturday that may mix with or end as a light wet snow Saturday evening, followed by below normal temperatures Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A highly amplified synoptic pattern with a 160 kt Pacific jet will persist into the latter half of the week, allowing for an influx of unseasonably warm and moist air. 850 mb WAA advection ramps up tonight, and may provide enough isentropic lift to squeeze out an isolated sprinkle or light rain shower. The probability of measurable precipitation is only 15-25% with most of the FA likely only experiencing more of a mist from the low status that will be in place. Winds will also be breezy out of the southwest with gusts between 20-30 mph as the pressure gradient tightens. Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be unseasonably warm with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By 12z Thursday, an elongated 500 mb trough will be located over the western CONUS while sfc low pressure in the central Plains will begin to lift northeast towards the Great Lakes region with a cold front. Inside the warm sector, dewpoints across the FA rise into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, translating to about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon and evening hours. Combined with robust sfc-6km shear of 70-80 kts, the parameters support the potential for a few strong to severe storms. The greatest concern is north of the Ohio River from the Wabash Valley into the Evansville Tri-State region.

There still remains some uncertainty in the storm mode, but the overall consensus is for discrete supercells to quickly grow upscale into linear line segments that will pose the risk of damaging winds and isolated tornados with sfc-1 km shear of 20-25 kts. Given mid-level lapse rates around 7.0 C/km and a low WBZ around 750-725 mb, some hail cannot be ruled as well. The ECMWF EFI for CAPE-Shear ranges from 0.7 to 0.9 which typically translates to increasing confidence in an anomalous event that is supported by the aformentioned unseasonably warm temperatures. Overall, some severe weather remains a concern for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, but spatial coverage for the PAH CWA may be confined more to the northeast counties where SPC maintains a slight risk in their D3 convective outlook.

Temperatures cool back down into the 50s behind the cold front on Friday, with below normal values returning by Sunday as a 500 mb trough digs into the eastern CONUS. 850 mb temps plummet 20 degrees over the weekend with values around -10C by Sunday and Monday translating to highs back in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows in the 20s. In the wake of a secondary cold front Saturday, there is a 35-45% chance of light rain that may end as some light snow on the backside. However, mean NBM probabilities of snow are only around 20%. Even if snow does occur, impacts from accumulation are unlikely due to poor SLRs Saturday evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low stratus is the main concern with cigs gradually lifting to MVFR across the western terminals by this evening. A stray rain shower/sprinkle is possible overnight, but the probability is only 15-20% for any measurable precipitation. Cigs lower again towards the end of the TAF period with a 70-80% chance of IFR conditions at KCGI/KPAH. South winds between 10-16 kts will gusts to around 25 kts tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.