textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- One more very pleasant May day is forecast today before more summer-like heat and humidity start to emerge. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are modest (30-40%) return to mainly the northern half of the area Friday into Saturday.

- More widespread chances (50-70%) for showers and storms are slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. The probability to receive at least 1" of rain is around 50-60% through next Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Our stretch of exceptionally pleasant May weather looks to continue today. Upper level ridging stretches the length of the CONUS along the eastern periphery of the Rocky Mountains. Surface high pressure at 1019mb or so will set basically on top of the area today. Dewpoints will remain unseasonably low with clear skies and highs in the mid 70s.

Low-level flow shifts to the southwest for Friday with higher humidity riding in on those winds. GFS/ECMWF spit out a little precip triggered by low level warm advection but column moisture generally appears lacking. A weak shortwave then moves overhead over the weekend. Overall the forcing and available column moisture isn't too impressive and while there are rain chances they look like they will end up pretty scatter shot. Temperatures look to be warmer with highs working into the 80s.

Monday through the rest of the week looks a little more robust. Large scale flow aloft becomes more southwesterly with a couple shortwaves flipping though the flow. A cold front is modeled on Monday night but it starts to stall with deep layer flow parallel to the front. This results for now in the area stuck mostly in the soupy side of the airmass with dewpoints in the high 60s to low 70s and likely daily rain chances. It looks fairly likely that we will see some drier periods emerge in this pattern but they are hard to find for now. Monday night into Tuesday looks like the best chance for any severe weather for now with most of the threat well to our northwest, so we will keep an eye out there, but it is not exactly jumping off the page for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions with relatively light winds are forecast through the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.