textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be a couple of low-end rain chances tonight: 1) A 10-20% this evening along the Missouri-Arkansas border and 2) A 20-40% chance between midnight and 7 AM in the southern Kentucky Purchase and Pennyrile.

- Another chance (20-40%) of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast late Tuesday night in northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, as well as the Evansville Tri-State and northwest Kentucky.

- After being fairly close to normal values through Thursday, temperature will trend 5-10 degrees above normal Friday into next weekend, along with a return of small (10-20%) pop-up shower or thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A surface cold front has settled just south of the area as part of a broader H5 ridge-trough axis across the CONUS from west to east. A weak surface inflection will initiate isolated to widely scattered showers near the AR/MO and KY/TN borders this evening and through the overnight hours. It appears there could be two potential periods of rain. The first would be this evening near the AR/MO border where a small chance (10-20%) of rain is forecast. The second round will be a bit more robust in coverage (20-40% chance) over the southern KY Purchase and Pennyrile areas. Any rain should be out of the region by daybreak Monday. Additionally rainfall amounts will be very light for those that do see it, generally a tench of an inch or less.

High pressure across the Mid-South will bring seasonably mild and dry conditions the rest of Monday into Tuesday, but another cold front will pass through the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, bringing another chance of both showers and thunderstorms. This front will be lacking good forcing and moisture, so storm chances will be confined to the northern have of the region (20-40% chance here) before losing all forcing, while locations further south will likely stay dry. Rainfall amounts will again be very light even if it does occur, generally a tenth of an inch or less.

Following the passage of the cold front on Wednesday, very dry and breezy conditions are expected, with RH values as low as 20-25% and NW winds of 10-15 mph. This could lead to elevated fire weather conditions depending on how dry the vegetation becomes during the next few days. Low humidity values but less breezy conditions are also expected Thursday and Friday.

From Friday into next weekend, the H5 ridging over the western CONUS will begin to shift eastward towards the area. However, model guidance has shown the ridging becoming flattened/zonal by next weekend. NAEFS guidance still shows temperatures at 850mb warming to the 90th percentile, which will result in a warming trend regardless. Weekend high temperatures will rise into the middle 80s and possibly lower 90s. Humidity values will begin to creep upward as well, with dew point temperatures forecast to reach the lower to middle 60s. This may allow isolated (10-20% chance) air mass showers or thunderstorms to develop during the heat of the day, but no widespread drought- busting rains are forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Following the passage of a cold front early this morning, winds will remain light from the N or NNE around 4-8 kts through the forecast period. SCT-BKN mid- and high-level cloud decks will continue to spread across the area through late tonight, before gradually clearing mostly clear by daybreak. Some light showers are possible during the overnight hours, but impactful activity is expected to stay well south of the terminals in NE Arkansas and NW Tennessee.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.