textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible tonight through Thursday, with chances (30-50%) peaking Wednesday evening and night.

- Hot temperatures in the 90s return Sunday into early next week, with some possibility of the heat remaining in place much of next week. Humidity levels also nudge upwards, allowing heat index readings to approach or exceed 100 by Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The synoptic pattern through Friday will feature a 500mb ridge across the southwestern U.S. and downstream troughing across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The trough will become reinforced as a shortwave diving south out of Manitoba pushes southeast into the Great Lakes through Wednesday night. This will allow a cold front to drop south into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Before that occurs, a warm front lifts north towards us tonight into Wednesday morning which may ignite a few showers or isolated storms (most likely elevated) across southeast Missouri. A greater chance for showers and storms exists Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as the cold front slips south across the area. Most of the CAMs struggle to generate much instability Wednesday afternoon and evening (with the exception of the 3km NAM), but if we can tap into sufficient MLCAPE then a few strong to severe storms could be possible as deep layer shear increases to around 25 kts Wednesday evening.

In the wake of the fropa on Thursday, a reinforcement of the lower humidity surges down across the area Thursday night through Saturday. As we head into the weekend, the ridge across the southwest U.S. begins to build eastward and by Sunday into Monday it will encompass the entire southern U.S. 850mb temps rise into the 20- 22C range, helping to boost temperatures above 90 again. Some guidance suggests we may get quite toasty in the mid to even upper 90s early next week. Dew points creep up as well, back into the upper 60s to lower 70s, which would allow heat index readings to possibly exceed 100 again. While LREF probabilities of exceeding 90 peak Sunday and Monday (>90 percent chance) they remain quite high (75-90%) even into mid next week. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the ridge may remain in place through the entirety of next week even.

The probability of receiving at least 0.25" is only 15-25% through next Monday according to the latest run of the LREF. Any one location is more likely to remain dry through the next 7 days then to receive appreciable rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

High pressure at the surface situates to our east and keeps a dry advection on the low layers of the column at flight terminals here. Meanwhile in the upper levels, a weak wave opens up and spills out of the steering northwesterlies, bringing mid-high level bases that saturate down the upper part of the column during the forecast package time. Expect an introduction of VFR CIGS in the process, which should help mitigate the extent of fog formation overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.