textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warmup commences, with temperatures approaching 80F by Saturday. There is a 70% chance SEMO hits 80F, tapering to about a 40% chance of 80F being reached in the far east.

- Next rain/storm chances come by Friday night, when about a half inch rainfall is expected across the I-64 corridor, and again from late Saturday night through Sunday evening, when amounts will average generally a third of an inch or less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Some rebound in temperatures begins gradually today, as surface high pressure slides across the area and sunshine makes a more marked return. It occurs under the passing upper long wave trof, so high temps, while warmer, remain below seasonal norms in the 60s for one more day. Dew points drop into the 30s, and this combo results in bottom-out RH values around 30 percent this afternoon. Recent rainfall and light winds buoy the RH drop with respect to fire danger.

Our next front approaches Friday and with the surface high then shifted east, return flow southerlies pump temps back into the 70s and dew points into the 50s. The front's main energy stays well to the north and east, but its convergent presence incoming Friday night should be enough to support variable pops associated with its approach and passage. These pops will range from categorical in our northeast, where around 1/2" qpf may be realized along/around the I-64 corridor across SEIL/SWIN, to nary a drop along our TN/AR border counties in our far south. The night-time passage and energy displacement belies anything other than general risk storms with this passage.

The weekend starts nicely with Saturday continuing the warming trend, in fact offering perhaps the best/warmest day in the package with the chance to hit 80F for highs. This chance ranges from highest in the Ozarks (around 70%) to lowest in our far eastern sections of SWIN/WKY (around 40%).

Modeling of the late weekend system passage/associated qpf has taken a downturn, with a high pop/low qpf event trending upon run-to-run succession. While pops introduce late Saturday night and linger into early Sunday night, peak pops/best qpf is slated for the bulk system passage during the daytime Sunday, ranging from mid chance north/west, to likely south/east. Better forcing and dynamics sync much better well to our east, so another general storm risk event is anticipated for us at this writing, with average storm total qpf looking around a third of an inch or less. The best chance of seeing the higher amounts is for parts of southern Ky, esp closer to the TN border.

Monday looks like a dip back toward seasonal cool, with highs near 70F, with a move back up thru the 70s Tuesday on the way to flirting with 80F again by the mid week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Surface high pressure migrates overtop the terminals thru this package issuance, so generally light flow conditions and Visual Flight Rules are anticipated.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.