textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonable cold temperatures this morning give way to a warming trend Sunday. There is a 40-50% chance of temperatures reaching 85 degrees on Tuesday.

- Winds will be breezy Sunday through Tuesday with gusts between at least 20-30 mph. Marginal relative humidity values on Sunday will support an elevated fire danger with a 30-40% chance of reaching 25%.

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday night and continues through Friday with daily showers and thunderstorms. A 70-80% chance of rain peaks Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, allowing for a return to more seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A 1038 mb sfc high pressure is building across the FA this morning, allowing for the gradient winds to gradually weaken. After a cold start to the morning, abundant sunshine is in store for today with light easterly winds. The high quickly shifts east into the Mid- Atlantic region on Sunday causing the pressure gradient to rapidly tighten. Deep-layer mixing will support an elevated fire danger despite marginal relative humidity values due to the very dry soil condition. Breezy southerly winds will also support a warming trend with highs quickly trending back above normal into the 70s through early next week. By Tuesday, there is a 40-50% chance of temperatures reaching 85 degrees again. Winds will also be quite gusty between at least 20-30 mph. Would not be surprised to see gusts closer to 35 mph Tuesday afternoon as the momentum transfer will be more robust with an increase in the LLJ.

Unsettled weather returns Tuesday night and continues through the latter half of the week as a series of mid-level vorticity ejects across the FA. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances peak at 70-80% Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front sweeps through, supporting more seasonable temperatures Wednesday into Thursday. The frontal boundary briefly stalls south of the KY/TN border before lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While rain chances linger into Friday, NBM's PoPs may be a bit overdone with a 20-30% chance of pcpn on the LREF being more reasonable. Total QPF through Friday is progged between 1.50 to 2.25 inches, but the current deterministic forecast may be a bit too high with a 40-60% chance of seeing the lower end.

Despite the daily chances of storms, there is not a strong signal for severe weather potential. The ML model guidance keeps the better ingredients for stronger storms northwest of the FA Tuesday night, as the upper level jet support is lacking. With that said, it is not out of the question at some point in the extended a severe risk sneaks in as the transition into a very active weather pattern persists into next weekend when a more amplified disturbance approaches.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the next 24 hours. A few high-level clouds begin to spread over the region tonight. Northeast winds between 5-10 kts shift easterly by midday, diminishing to 2-4 kts after sunset.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107-111. IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ004-005-007- 008-010>022.