textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather still on track through most of the day Saturday.

- Chances of rain have increased (50-70 percent) for Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall totals have trended higher as well with most of west Kentucky and southwest IN forecast to see a half inch to an inch, while the rest of the are may see around a quarter inch.

- Cooler temperatures closer to normal next week with continued daily rain chances, with the exception of a brief break on Monday. Heavier rain totals will be possible with around a 50 to 60 percent chance of seeing 1 inch of rainfall for the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A very stable/dry weather pattern will linger through the end of the week under a partly to mostly cloudy sky with temperatures above normal in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

A more unsettled pattern is still on track for the weekend mainly for Saturday night into the day Sunday as rain chances have increased (50-70%) across the Quad State area. This will be the result of increasing moisture and an ill-defined/weakening low pressure system passing through the area. The rainfall total forecast has also increase across most of the area, especially west KY into southwest IN as tropical moisture pushes into the area from the southwest. In fact, there is now about a 60% chance of seeing a a half inch of rain or more across the aforementioned areas. Timing still looks very similar in keeping most of the Halloween evening dry before rain arrives around or just after 8pm from the west.

After the weekend precipitation, yet another/stronger upper level- low and surface low/cold front are expected to approach/move through the Quad State Monday night through at least Wednesday. The added precipitation and cloud cover will allow temperatures to trend near normal or cooler than normal. The latest ensemble guidance continues to hint at a better chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 60% chance of the Quad State seeing three-quarters of an inch or more of rain Monday night through Wednesday evening. There's still some uncertainty on how the systems evolve next week so stay tuned for updates on rainfall totals! The thunderstorm threat (any stronger storms) will be determined by the exact track and phasing of the systems for early to middle of next week. It is a bit early to get into the details at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions expected through this TAF issuance. High clouds will stream across the TAF sites today before thickening this afternoon and tonight. Winds will remain light, less than 10 kts through this issuance.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.