textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will return to the Quad State early today, and then continue through Wednesday.

- Chances of rain (40-70%) will continue Thursday through Friday over Southeast Missouri, while the remainder of the area begins to dry out.

- High temperatures through the week will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is within a few degrees of normal. Low temperatures will run above normal in the middle 60s through the work week and then drop down closer to normal over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A west to east oriented boundary is moving northward through the Quad State as weak upper level low pressure lifts northward with light showers approaching from the south. Increasing cloud coverage will limit fog potential and increased moisture will keep lows in the mid-60s for the morning. Heading into the morning, shower coverage will become widespread. A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon. Sounding profiles continue to show high precipitable water values, while a total lack of shear negates the meager instability, keeping lightning and locally heavy rain the only hazards.

The upper low slowly drifts eastward tonight through Wednesday keeping showers and a Wednesday afternoon thunderstorm or two in the forecast. A Great Lakes system Wednesday night pushes a trailing cold front into the Quad State and pushes the lingering boundary back south. QPF is highly concentrated in the today/tonight timeframe with a tenth to a half inch in the north and around an inch in the Southern Pennyrile, with lighter amounts Wednesday. A marginal ERO covers the Quad State today but it will take training and stalled out thunderstorms/heavy rain to get any localized nuisance flooding.

A negatively tilted ridge stretching from Manitoba to the Southeastern U.S. midweek stalls out a Central Plains disturbance. High pressure drops south into the Midwest, introducing northeasterly winds and dry conditions in the Evansville Tri-State Thursday. Further intrusion from the Midwestern high is becoming more prominent in model ensembles, cutting off late week precipitation to mostly just Southeast Missouri which may be caught up in a NW-SE oriented area of showers on the west flank of the ridge. Half an inch of rain is forecast in the Ozark Foothills with dry conditions in the northeastern half of the Quad State. Over the weekend, the Midwestern high becomes entrenched over the area and should keep conditions dry into early next week.

High temperatures amidst plenty of showers today will likely remain in the upper 70s to near 80. As the boundary pushes north, lower 80s for highs becomes more common midweek, dropping back to the 70s as northeasterly winds arrive for end of week/weekend. Lows in the mid-60s through midweek with elevated moisture lower to near 60 for end of week/weekend as drier air moves in.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers and MVFR cigs are moving into the Quad State region, localized IFR cigs are possible later today. Vsby drops are occurring with showers. Winds remain light today, peaking at around 5 kts out of the NE/E. A few thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon hours. Shower coverage decreases and focuses in the north late in the TAF period, with areas which received rain today potentially developing fog tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.