textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are projected to remain through the weekend with temperatures today and Saturday around 10 degrees below normal; temperatures then moderate for the first half of next week.

- Multiple rounds of light showers with very limited precipitation are forecast through the weekend, with more widespread shower/storm activity holding off until Monday night-Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

On the synoptic scale, broad troughing is located in the eastern half of the country while a ridge covers the west. Successive systems swing across the bottom of the trough through the weekend. Upper-level winds become zonal for the start of next week with an uncertain interaction between renewed troughing and an upper low in the Desert Southwest in the latter half of next week.

For now, a few light showers with a weak frontal passage moves through over the next few hours. Another weak front moves through Saturday, bringing a more widespread chance of light showers. Troughing keeps temperatures below normal today and Saturday, with highs in the 60s. A warming trend begins with the end of the weekend as heights increase and surface winds taking on a more southerly component as high pressure sets up in the southeast. A disturbance tracking through the Midwest may bring a few showers into northern portions of the Quad State Sunday night. Despite all these possibilities for rain, amounts will be minimal with all of them, keeping amounts below a tenth of an inch for most everywhere (isolated moderate showers aside) through the weekend. PoPs are generally lower than what HREF and LREF ensembles would suggest through the weekend, based on a decent likelihood of trace amounts of rain rather than measurable rain. While a shift up in PoPs is possible, no models are producing any significant rainfall.

Early next week will have low pressure moving through Ontario, dragging a slow moving boundary across much of the U.S., allowing for moisture to stream east-northeastward. An upper- level closed low in the southwest feeds some vorticity into this, allowing for higher shower/storm chances Monday night through Wednesday. Storms do not look particularly concerning and will mostly be elevated. Lightning and heavy rain will be the primary hazards, though the drought remains and rainfall totals of an inch or so won't cause any flooding issues in our current situation. While temperatures warm to near 80 Monday, ridging never really sets in and highs remain in the upper 60s to near 70 midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

North-northwesterly winds around 10 kts will gust up to 20 kts through mid afternoon. Winds become light/calm tonight. SCT cu is most likely at northern terminals this afternoon with bases around 6-7kft. Mid cloud will be on the increase overnight with bases lowering into Saturday morning. Most guidance suggests a low VFR deck in the 4-5kft range, but there is some possibility of flirting with MVFR levels at northern terminals in the morning. A few light showers are possible up there as well. By afternoon there may be just enough instability for some isolated thunder.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.