textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another blast of heat is forecast by Tuesday that lasts at least through Thursday. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s with daily peak heat index values potentialy up to around the Heat Advisory level threshold of 105 degrees, which begins as early as Monday for some of our Arkansas/Tennessee border counties. - Small rain chances along with slightly cooler and less humid conditions are expected to arrive by the week's end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

H5 heights running 590-592 DM today will increase to 596-599 DM over the next 48-72 hours; that places it on the top of the E-SAT charts for anamolous height rise this time of year. Similarly, H8 temps increase 3-4C as a ridging nose of 23C works overtop the FA, coincident with the setting of the anti- cyclone's center just to our southeast and not too far off our previous heat wave's H8 temps. Dew points, after a brief reprieve today-tmrw (for parts of the region), mostly return to 70F+ by Tuesday. The net result will be dangerously high heat indices in the mid week period, particularly by Tuesday and extending thru at least Thursday, with daily highs in the mid- upper 90s combining with 70-75F dews for HI's topping out close to/around the Advisory threshold of 105 degrees. LREF only has 10-20% chances of >104F HI's Tuesday sneaking into the MO Bootheel, but it's been a consistent modeling of synoptic features that suggests the realized ambient air temps, dew points, and resultant HI's should in fact approach or potentialy reach/exceed 105F daily in most locales, despite the ensemble- clustering tool's apparant smoothing. Interestingly enough, even the LREF has a 70-80% chance of HI's into the triple digits, so it's close regardless. And those high temps approach records:

Records vs Fcst Temps... PAH Tuesday 102 vs 96, Wednesday 97 vs 96, Thursday 98 vs 95 EVV Tuesday 99 vs 97, Wednesday 97 vs 97, Thursday 96 vs 96.

Also note our Ozark counties and potentially nearer the Bootheel counties see triple digits that flirt with Advisory thresholds as early as Monday, suggesting duration impacts at play in some of our south. Then this gets more widespread beginning Tuesday, and lasting at least thru Thursday. The NWS Heat Risk Experimental shoots us into Major by Tuesday, where it more or less holds thru Thursday (with some contraction). After Thursday, the strength of the ridge is impacted, as our heights are increasingly muddied down by rimfire from approaching areas of low pressure both to the north and south of the region. As a result, while still remaining above the climo normals of lower-middle 80s for mid Sept highs, we do cool off enough to preclude the headline worthy triple digit indices of the previous days, as we come to the week's conclusion.

Rain chances in the near and long term are small and peripheral enough so as to regard little mention other than their presence; this is similar for any night-time patchy fog potential.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

There continues to be some signal for patchy fog potential in the late night/early morning hours, in which temporary restrictions may apply. But otherwise it'll be a return to Visual Flight Rules operating conditions daily while high pressure retains/builds its pattern grip in the coming days.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ107>110-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KYZ001.