textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms late this afternoon into the early overnight hours. The primary severe hazard will be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado or large hail report cannot be ruled out.

- A Flood Watch continues for the additional heavy rain and associated flooding hazard from multiple rounds of storms thru Saturday night, when a final round of storms may bring strong to severe potential again, in addition to localized flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

We are watching 3 different areas of development from southwest Illinois to central Missouri and southern Missouri. Confidence in how long the three areas hold together is uncertain, but they all could be severe and spread across the region this evening into the overnight. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480 is in effect until midnight, but an extension and/or expansion to the east is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Broad swath 1-3" across SEMO/SWIL/far WKY did contain within it pockets of heavier amounts cumulatively totaling 2-3x the areal average, resulting in localized flooding where that occurred. Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon into the early overnight hours, not dissimilar to the timing of yesterday's round but perhaps displaced some to the east with the main axis of convection. The wave will dive southeast from ne MO across scntrl IL into sw IN tonight. It will have sufficient energy/juice this evening to yield a similar to yesterday severe threat for damaging winds primarily, but an isolated tornado or large hail report cannot be ruled out. If training/repeat storms get going, our forecast average amounts of an additional 1-2" thru the weekend may see localized totals twice that or better, keeping the flooding concern going into the weekend. A final round late Saturday into Saturday night will yield small severe chances and more heavy rain to contend with, but geographic location and timing is a little more uncertain owing to the previous day(s) convection and how that'll ultimately be modelled...stay tuned for fine tunes.

While pcpn chances may linger into early next week, it does look like we transition to a higher pressure influenced sensible wx forecast overall, resulting in a little hotter/drier conditions by the back half of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Tried to time the storms this evening and then have a 4-6 hour period of showers with embedded thunder overnight. This may not happen at all sites, but at this time it is difficult to pin it down. Some period of MVFR ceilings is possible in the morning, mainly in the north. Most locations will also have a good chance of TSRA in the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081- 082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for KYZ001>022.