textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures and humidity levels will start feeling more like summer-time through early next week. Highs will average close to 10 degrees above normal with lots of mid to upper 80s pushing into the low 90s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight into Saturday with highest chances (30-60%) across the northern half of the area.

- More widespread chances (60-80%) for showers and storms are slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. Modest risks for some severe thunderstorms or locally heavy rain may emerge in this period, mostly likely Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Overall a low amplitude pattern persists into the weekend period before troughing across the west leads to amplification of the h50 pattern. Capping aloft and limited moisture throughout the column should generally limit shower and storm potential for much of the area today except portions of southeast Missouri. Here, a weak moisture pool could continue to lead to isolated to widely scattered showers and possible a storm or two. Coverage of showers and storms increases on Saturday as a mid level shortwave and warm front lifts through the region. Low end PoPs were introduced for the overnight period to reflect this potential, which is being showed in various CAM solutions. Higher chances for showers and storms exists on Saturday with 30-60% chances mainly across the northern half of the area.

Monday of next week, deep troughing develops over the north central US with persistent southwest flow aloft through midweek. Moisture return will result in increasing coverage of showers and storms. By Tuesday, a surface low develops across the plains and quickly translates northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. We start to see better upper level dynamics associated with the right entrance region of the upper jet. A cold front will extend from the Midwest and into the plains with increasing instability to support thunderstorms along the front. Some of this activity may move into the region late Tuesday with the potential for some organized convection given increased deep layer shear. PWATs will be maximized around 1.7 to 1.8 inches which suggest a heavy rain potential. High pressure builds in behind the front leading to more tranquil weather conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Main aviation impacts will be SHRA and possible TSRA chances overnight and into Saturday. Ahead of this activity, VFR conditions will prevail with mostly high based ceilings. Southerly winds 9-15 knots will continue into the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Winds will decrease overnight still from a southerly direction.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.