textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasingly warm and humid but mostly dry conditions are forecast today and Saturday.

- Humid and unsettled weather is forecast Sunday through Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms likely (50-80%) each day. There is a 50-70% chance of at least one inch of rain falling during this period.

- Drier, but hot and humid conditions will arrive Wednesday into Thursday. Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Our extended period of quiet and comfortable temperature and humidity will soon be coming to an end. Temperatures and humidity values will creep upward today into Saturday as trough over the Rio Grande Valley moves towards the region and the big H5 ridge over the area retreats to the east. As the trough approaches, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon into the evening, but the great majority of the region should stay dry. High temperatures today and Saturday will reach the middle to upper 80s today and the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday. Dew point temperatures will creep into the lower to middle 60s as well.

A period of unsettled and quite humid conditions is increasingly likely Sunday through at least Tuesday. As the trough and diffuse cold front moves into the area, very moist Gulf moisture will advect into the region, and PWAT values will approach 1.75-2.0" (about the 90-99th percentile). This will drive the development of scattered to numerous tropical showers and thunderstorms.

PoPs have steadily increased over the last few days for this period, and now stand around 50-80% each day from Sunday through Tuesday. Humidity values will be very sticky, climbing well into the 70s. High temperatures will be limited by the clouds and precipitation, only climbing into the lower to middle 80s. Efficient warm rainfall processes will help boost precipitation totals, and the latest NBM ensemble guidances shows a 50-70% chance of a least 1 inch of rain by Wednesday morning, and a 20-40% chance of 2 inches or more.

By Wednesday, PoPs will begin to trend downward to 25-50% and finally dry on Thursday as the tropical trough yields to another intensifying H5 ridge and surface high pressure. Unfortunately, the humidity will not be scoured out, so high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be met by elevated dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. This will bring our hottest heat index values by Thursday, nearing or exceeding 100 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Increasing southerly flow will bring steady S to SW winds around around 4-8 kts this morning increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts in a few spots this afternoon. Tonight winds will relax again to around 4-6 kts. Areas of SCT cirrus will be present most of the forecast period, with high- based CU with bases around 5-10kft developing during the late morning through mid afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.