textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Off and on plain rainy day should evolve into a little more widespread rain with a few thunderstorms this evening.

- There is a small risk (5-10% or less) of storms becoming strong/severe this afternoon or evening with hail the concern.

- Rainfall rates still look to be too low/spread out for any real flooding concern.

UPDATE

Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Modest warm air and moisture advection continue to combine to produce off and on showers that have mostly translated to a plain 'ol rainy day across the CWA. A surface low over OK/TX fills as it tracks this way this afternoon. Jet-level forcing is extremely limited if not convergent reflected in 500mb height rises across much of the day. Nevertheless the approaching sfc cold front should provide adequate ascent for continued showers/rain and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm. Dewpoints to the southwest are a little better, and the possibility for just a little boundary layer instability to develop is there but it seems like a pretty narrow window. With the MUCAPE, somewhat low wet bulb zero heights and available westerly shear a hailstorm or two would be the main concern it would appear.

Behind the cold front we cool off for a couple days before return flow starts back up on Friday and another front sweeps through quickly. Moisture return is greatly limited and it looks like severe weather threat remains low with this FROPA despite the time of year. We do the same thing roughly over the weekend with a quick shot of moisture return in the progressive overall pattern and maintain a pretty good rain/thunder chance Sunday. There are subtle timing difference that once resolved will probably produce a fairly focused period of rain/thunderstorms sometime Sunday or early Monday. Still doesn't look like a favorable severe pattern with instability limited.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Low confidence forecast again. Expecting showers and isolated thunder to continue to develop behind the frontal boundary that has just about cleared the PAH and OWB as it slides slowly southeast. Cigs and vsbys will bounce between IFR and MVFR through the evening, with gradual improvement to MVFR and then low VFR from NW to SE between 12-18z. Winds will be from the N around 8-12 kts with some gusts to up 20 kts through 9-12z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.