textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures run near to slightly above normal (50s) through the weekend, and continue with above normal temperatures (60s) through next week. There is a 60-90%/50-80% chance that high temperatures reach 70 degrees or better next Wednesday/Thursday, the warmest days of the week.

- A rainy weekend is expected, with rainfall amounts projected to generally be between 0.75-1.5" with the higher totals most likely to occur along the southernmost portions of Southeast Missouri and Western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A deep digging shortwave is working across west Texas and northern Mexico this afternoon. A large lower-level storm system leads the trough with a 1006 mb sfc low over north central Texas and a broad baroclinic leaf spreading from Iowa down to the western Gulf. Light rain is forming up over the quad-state amid modest low level warm advection. The bulk of the large scale ascent and the surface low is expected to track south of the CWA tonight but we should have enough WAA and eventually jet- level lift for light to moderate rain to persist through the rest of the afternoon and much of the overnight once it gets started. Intensity and coverage should peak in the overnight hours. Overall amounts still look to be between 0.75 and 1.5 inches or so, with the highest probs of higher amounts along the KY/TN border. Precip should end by 8-10 am Sunday.

The airmass behind this system is slightly cooler, but only slightly and max temps should bump back into the lower 60s by Monday. A ridging forms up over the southeast Tuesday and Wednesday we warm up significantly through the middle of the week.

A broad west southwesterly jet max at 140-160 kts establishes over much of the central and southwestern US through mid week. There are variations in the solutions at this point but for now the theme seems to surround a front Thursday night or Friday with a 998 mb or so surface low tracking to the northwest. This looks to give us some rain/thunderstorm chances as it moves through, but from the shape/position of the jet I'd imagine some additional timing and shape fluctuations are yet to come. Moisture return looks a little underdone based on the current state of the Gulf, and shear is not exceptional but it is strong enough to be supportive of some organized convective threat. CIPS analog and CSU-MLP severe elements are showing some degree of favorability for severe as well. At this point it just looks like something to monitor over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Rain is moving in from the southwest, starting pretty light but intensity and lower ceilings should begin to move in later this afternoon deteriorating to low MVFR/IFR overnight with the heaviest overall precip/visby reductions probably in the 02-07z timeframe. Precip should end after sunrise tomorrow but lower ceilings currently look likely to stick around through 18z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.