textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight before the cold front makes complete passage before sunrise. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the 7 day period.

- Confidence continues to increase that a late season heatwave will impact our region beginning Sunday and continue through most of next week. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to possibly upper 90s. While humidity levels will be lower than previous heatwaves this summer, heat index readings likely will still exceed 100 by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Isolated convection continues to bubble up along a cold front sinking south across the region. This activity should be south of our area by sunrise and any daytime convection on Thursday should remain south down in TN. Deep layer shear is weak (generally 20 kts at best) but we do still have DCAPE of 1000-1200 j/kg so can't rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing some decent wind over the next several hours.

Upper level troughing will reside across the Ohio Valley the next couple of days resulting in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass through Saturday. The coldest night looks to be Friday night, when a few stations may drop into the 50s again. As we head into the weekend, the upper ridge that has been parked over the southwest CONUS will shift eastward. As 850mb temps rise above 20C, we will see highs back into the 90s by Sunday. Humidity levels remain low so heat index readings won't be much higher than actual temperatures this weekend.

Guidance is in good agreement keeping the 594dm ridge centered over the OH/TN valley early to mid next week. While there is some uncertainty later in the week, the trend has been to keep the ridge in tact right through the end of the week. Some solutions even keep it in place through Labor Day weekend. It's quite possible this may turn into one of our longest heatwaves of the summer season.

LREF probabilities for heat index readings exceeding 100 degrees are 60-70% for Wed-Fri next week. Probabilities for MaxTs reaching at least 95 degrees peak in the 70-80% range Tues-Fri. Given the time of year (waning influence of crops influencing dew points), the humidity levels will be quite a bit lower than previous heatwaves this summer. LREF only has about a 40-50% chance for dewpoints exceeding 70 degrees (a far cry from the upper 70s to low 80s we have endured quite a bit this summer). Regardless though, heat impacts are likely as MaxTs will be right up there near the highest we have experienced this summer. Given the drier airmass in place, ambient temps may end up hitting the upper 90s a couple of days and it's quite possible a few locations touch 100. Overnight lows also look quite warm, with the LREF only suggesting a 20-40% chance readings will drop below 75 degrees overnight Wed-Fri next week. This may challenge some daily record warm lows, which are mostly in the mid 70s in early September. HeatRisk also ramps up to major category by Tuesday and extreme on Wednesday, suggesting heat headlines will likely be needed (particularly for the duration aspect).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Models are trending toward a non-zero but low enough to preclude from mention pop with the front's approach tonight, but did maintain at least a vicinity mention for potential restricted bases/showers north (KMVN-KEVV-KOWB). Also included for all terminals a mention of restrictions to vsbys in patchy pre dawn fog, then a benign wx day is expected in the post frontal environ tmrw with light northerlies behind the front and potential for SCT-BKN diurnal VFR bases according to Time/Height cross sectional analysis.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.