textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence has increased to a 70-90% chance of a heatwave impacting the region next week, with heat index values of 100+ degrees. Heat headlines will be needed.

- Dry conditions will persist well into next week with a 20%ish chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms making a return on Thursday night through the weekend. Rain chances will bring limited relief from the heat at best heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A potent 594 dm ridge shifts east over the area today through Monday. Drier air is mixing down this afternoon and bringing our dewpoints down into the lower 60s and even a few upper 50s. Sfc high pressure will build to our east tomorrow and bring southerly/southwesterly return flow. Even with the increase in moisture transport, dewpoints will still be in the 60s tomorrow. This will allow for highs to climb into the lower to mid 90s.

Next week continues to look hot with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees as early as Monday out west in the NBM. The LREF starts to increase the probabilities of 100+ degree heat indices on Monday with a 20-40% chance and jumps up to a 60-80% chance on Tuesday, and a 70-90% chance on Wednesday and Thursday. While a few sites might hit a heat index of 105 (Heat Advisory criteria), a Heat Advisory will still be necessary due to there being 4 consecutive days of heat indices of 100+.

The ridge aloft begins to flatten on Thursday and then shifts west on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday may still be hot though with highs potentially in the mid 90s and LREF probs of 50-70% of heat indices of 100+ on Friday, and 40-60% on Saturday. Some weak, scattered 20%ish PoPs re-enter the forecast late week into the weekend as a few ripples move through the ridge and a cold front stalls to the north. However, ensembles are slightly more robust with precip chances during that time frame, which could bring a little more (albeit still limited) relief from the heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. A diurnal cu deck is forming across the area this afternoon at around 6k ft with a little bit of high cirrus above that. Skies should clear out overnight with winds going calm. Fog potential seems less likely tonight as we are less likely to hit the crossover temperatures with afternoon dewpoints in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 60s. Another diurnal cu deck should form tomorrow with similar conditions to today and increased southwest sfc flow.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.