textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A significant severe weather event will impact the Quad State this afternoon into tonight. Elevated isolated supercells this morning that are capable of producing large hail will become surface based this afternoon. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. Discrete storms grow upscale into a line tonight with damaging winds and embedded strong tornadoes.

- Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon with wind gusts between 25-35 mph. There is a 40-50% chance wind gusts briefly reach 40 mph.

- Another round of severe weather is possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are the hazards of concern. There is a 60-70% chance of total 48 hour rainfall of 2 inches or more. Localized flash flooding issues are possible.

- Temperatures trend near to slightly below normal Wednesday into next weekend. Most of the period is dry, but a 20-30% chance of light rain showers return on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Elevated convection is ongoing across the Quad State this morning, with isolated supercells that have been producing large hail. As the back edge of the MCS lifts more northeast, destabilization will quickly occur with an influx of higher dewpoints near 70 degrees pushing northward across the Missouri Bootheel. The air mass recovery by this afternoon quickly translates to 2500 to 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 7.5 to 8.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Combined with 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH and STP values of 3.0-6.0, strong EF3+ tornadoes, large hail over 2 inches, and damaging wind gusts over 60 mph will all be possible. The storm mode this afternoon will be more discrete with the HRRR showing a cluster of supercells developing. As a meso low near STL lifts northeast this evening, the winds at the sfc become more backed, especially in SPCs 15% tornado risk that clips portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

While the ongoing convection has always been the greatest uncertainty with the forecast, model consensus continues to remain strong for the storm mode to transition to line segments this evening with convection rapidly growing upscale into a QLCS. This is when the highest damaging wind risk will occur with DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Embedded strong tornadoes also remain likely with sfc-1 km shear around 30-35 kts. Instability begins to drop off as storms move into southwest Indiana and the western Kentucky Pennyrile, allowing for some weakening into the overnight hours.

Breezy conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms through this afternoon with a 40-50% chance of wind gusts briefly reaching 40 mph locally. Most gusts however should remain in the 25-35 mph range. Given the brief duration, have decided to hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory as the impacts will be subtle compared to the severe weather that will impact most of the FA.

The potential for another round of severe weather continues to increase on Tuesday as another wave moves trough with a stalled frontal boundary. The CAMs show a MCS pushing across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The thermodynamics support damaging wind and very large hail with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and mid-level lapse rates between 8.0-9.0 C/km. The tornado risk will be more isolated with lower intensity compared to today, but 15 kts of sfc-1 km shear will be enough to support a few spin ups. If the boundary shifts more north and convection trends slower, convection would overlap with the better 40 kt LLJ in the evening to support a higher risk.

Due to the potential for training convection, the risk of localized Flash Flooding has increased with another 3 rounds of thunderstorms expected through Tuesday evening. Total 48 hour rainfall is forecast between 1.5 to 3.5 inches, with a 60-70% chance of 2 or more inches. Given the ongoing drought conditions, flooding issues will be more prone to the typical urban and low-lying locations that are more sensitive with PWATs around 1.5 inches.

Dry and much cooler conditions return on Wednesday with a broad trough aloft settling over the Ohio Valley. Daily slightly below normal high temperatures range from the mid 60s to near 70 through Friday before trending warmer closer to normal next weekend. There remains a 20-30% chance of light rain showers on Friday. The GEFS is further north with a low pressure system that tracks over the lower Mississippi River Valley with QPF between 0.10 to 0.25 inches. Meanwhile, the EPS and GEPS keeps this system more suppressed with very little rainfall. A dry weekend then follows as sfc high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The main aviation concern will be thunderstorms with strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and possibly hail at the terminals beginning 21Z until 01Z, as scattered thunderstorms develop, followed by a potential line of severe thunderstorms from 01Z through 05Z, with a TEMPO for VFR25G40KT 2SM +TSRAGS. Confidence remains low on coverage and timing.

Southerly winds with gusts 25 to 30KT through the afternoon, except strong gusts near any thunderstorms into this evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely with the passage of thunderstorms, with IFR possible.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.