textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog will continue early this morning across southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and the Kentucky Purchase region. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect.

- A major winter storm will impact the entire region late Friday night through midday Sunday with heavy snowfall. Between 7 to 13 inches of snow is forecast with a 60-80% chance of exceeding winter storm warning criteria. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect.

- A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain over far southeast western Kentucky near the Tennessee border may result in a sharp gradient with reduced snowfall totals. There is a 30-40% chance ice accretion exceeds a tenth of an inch.

- Prolong sub freezing temperatures begins Friday and continues through at least Tuesday for most of the region. The probability of temperatures falling below 0 degrees Monday morning is 40-60%. Multiple morning of wind chills reaching 0 to -10 degrees are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Southwest winds are advecting in moisture over southeast Missouri and portions of far southern Illinois and the Kentucky Purchase region that is leading to areas of patchy dense fog this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect. As a cold front sweeps through the FA this morning, a shallow inversion in the boundary layer will quickly erode as northwesterly flow advects in much drier air. Any residual moisture on bridges and overpasses may become a bit slick for the morning commute as temperatures dip below freezing.

Behind the cold front, troughing aloft will cause temperatures to trend colder through Friday. Highs today will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s while lows plummeting into the mid teens to lower 20s tonight. Friday then begins a stretch of at least 5 consecutive days of temperatures remaining below freezing across most of the FA. Cold Weather Advisory headlines will eventually be needed for Friday night with wind chill values progged between 0 to -10 degrees by the NBM. 20 to 25 degree below normal temperatures continue through the weekend with a 60-80% probability that temperatures remain at or below 20 degrees both Saturday and Sunday.

With that said, a major winter storm remains on track to impact the Quad State late Friday night through midday Sunday when the northern and southern stream branches will phase together and develop into a positively tilted trough at 500 mb. The 0z GFS is now less progressive with the energy that ejects out of the northern Dakotas which has resulted in another northward shift. The mean on all three major model ensembles is quite strong with the greatest frontogenetic forcing associated with a tight baroclinic zone setting up along an axis from Popular Bluff through Paducah and Owensboro. Snowfall is progged to occur in two waves with the first wave occurring Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. A lull then occurs sometime Saturday evening before the next wave moves through Saturday night into midday Sunday.

Model soundings would suggest the heaviest banding will occur with the second wave when a deep isothermal layer between 800- 600 mb and robust lift through the DGZ that will be supported by the right entrance region of a 150+ kt jet max at 250 mb. The 285K Specific Humidity is also quite impressive with values exceeding 3.5 g/kg that will support heavy snowfall rates exceeding 1-2 inches per hour. NBMs SLRs remain too low for these reasons, and have adjusted the grids with WPCGuide to account for 12:1 to 15:1 SLRs in the heaviest snow zone. This translates to a deterministic forecast of 7 to 13 inches of snowfall. However, the exception remains across the far southeast in western Kentucky near the Tennessee border where a warm nose may yield more in the way of sleet and freezing rain with 30-40% chance of ice accretion exceeding a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, the probability of exceeding 8 inches of snow is 50-60% over the heaviest axis; however, this may also be too low given the aformentioned reasons with both the GFS and EC supporting over a foot of snow at WFO PAH! Overall, there are a lot of similarities to March 4-5, 2015, but even more sleet/freezing would still result in the biggest snowfall since February 14-15, 2021 for the Quad State. Given wind gusts up to 20 mph, blowing and drifting snow will also be a concern that will lead to poor visibility below 1 mile at times.

After the winter storm, prolong cold will continue through Monday with additional cold weather headlines likely needed. There is a 40- 60% chance of low temperatures falling below 0 degrees Monday morning and again Tuesday morning across the far east that will yield wild chill values of -5 to -10 degrees. The probability will likely trend higher in future NBM runs when factoring in the snowpack better. Temperatures begin to moderate by mid week with a 50/50 chance of rising above 32 degrees by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Patchy dense fog has diminished this morning. High level clouds will move across the region over the next 24 hours behind a cold front. Light northerly winds eventually increase to 8-10 kts towards the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.