textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A potent disturbance will impact the area Saturday with the precipitation beginning as snow or a rain/snow mix in the morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible, particularly across areas near Interstate 64 Saturday where a winter weather advisory has been issued. Isolated travel impacts are possible with brief periods of heavy snow and the possibility of some mixing of sleet.

- Continued below normal temperatures will continue into early next week, ahead of another system that is set to bring additional chances of wintry weather to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The next weather system set to move across the Quad State region is currently evident on water vapor imagery across the Rockies this afternoon. Surface ridging is parked across the region with light and variable winds. Temperatures are currently in the 30s with dewpoints in the upper teens to lower 20s. Mostly clear skies remain with high level cirrus beginning to stream in from the west.

Troughing aloft will move off the Rockies through Saturday morning with an upshear jet max leading to amplification of this trough. A surface low will move across the central plains Saturday morning lifting into Missouri by the afternoon. The low will lift a NW/SE oriented warm front across the region through the day Saturday. Precipitation will likely develop on the leading edge of the 850-700mb frontogenetic circulation as it lifts northeast. CAMs and global models are in very good agreement on the reflectivity footprint as this activity moves across the region. Initial precipitation type will start out as snow especially ahead of the WAA ramping up. Models are in agreement in showing the dry airmass eroding with wetbulb cooling being evident in the low level thermal fields. Top/down saturation of the column will likely occur rather quickly given the forcing aloft.

Model planviews and cross sections reveal regions of maximized omega within the DGZ co-located where some of the CAMs develop heavier reflectivity resulting in brief periods of moderate snow. While marginal temperatures will limit snow accumulations, some of these heavier rates may briefly overcome those marginal temperatures and lead to light accumulations and the potential for slushy roads especially in the morning hours along the I-64 corridor and potentially into portions of southeast Missouri. The forecast for snow accumulations remains largely unchanged. An area along I-64 stands the best chance of seeing up to 2 inches of snow accumulation. Lighter accumulations are possible south of this area. A winter weather advisory will go into effect Saturday morning from Jefferson County IL east to Wabash County.

Eventually, the warm nose will overspread the region and begin a p-type transition. There may be a short window of sleet before a complete change over to rain. Rain will continue to push across the region through the afternoon. The rain and warming temperatures are expected to help improve any road issues by the afternoon. Rain will come to an end from west to east by early Sunday morning. High temperatures Sunday will be cold with areas near I-64 remaining near freezing, and mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

High pressure settles across the midwest Sunday into Monday resulting in drier weather and continued cold temperatures. Temperatures on Monday will range from around freezing west of the MS river to mid to upper 30's east. Attention then turns toward the next system Monday night into Tuesday. Troughing develops to the west resulting in a low developing along the Gulf Coast. Guidance continues to show some uncertainty with the strength of the upper trough and moisture availability. Wintry precipitation does seem to be likely given the airmass in place with below normal temperatures. This will be a system to watch in case precipitation amounts begin to increase with snow and/or a wintry mix possible. Precipitation will be moving out by Tuesday morning. Beyond this system, high pressure builds in bringing drier weather through Thursday. Temperatures warm slightly into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

High clouds are moving into the area now on satellite and will eventually become overcast at all sites. Cigs are expected to start lowering (though still VFR) overnight. A system is coming through that will bring precip to CGI and MVN starting around 11-12Z, expected to be primarily snow at MVN and possibly a rain/snow mix at CGI. This system will take some time to move east (due to a pocket of dry air) with the precip and so have used PROB30s at PAH, EVV, and OWB for potential onset timing. Precip at onset will likely be a mixture of rain/snow and possibly even ice pellets. There is high uncertainty still around these precip types and onset timing further east. Cigs will lower gradually with the onset of precip at any terminal, vsbys will also be affected (more so with snow than with rain). Expect a transition to all rain around the afternoon/early evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night for ILZ075>078. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.