textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous high and warm minimum temperature records will be broken this weekend. There's about a 30-50% chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees today and a 50-80% chance of exceeding 70 degrees on Sunday! - A strong cold front will bring a 80 to 90 percent chance of rain and 15 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk of severe weather with the showers and storms with damaging winds the main threat.

- Winds will be gusty out of the south on Sunday, possibly reaching or exceeding 35 mph (30-50% chance).

- A brief blast of cold air will arrive Sunday night into early next week. Temperatures will struggle to warm above freezing for Monday and Tuesday and there is a 50-80 percent chance that wind chill values fall into the single digits above zero!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Patchy dense fog is still being observed at several locations across the Quad State with many locations still gradually lowering in visibility. At this point, will not make any changes to the ongoing dense fog advisory this morning. Conditions will gradually improve after sunrise.

Temperatures will continue to be quite warm through the weekend as warm/southerly flow remains in place across the area. There's a good chance that record high temperatures will continue to be broken through this weekend with a 30-50 percent percent chance of high temperatures reaching or exceeding 70 degrees today in KY/MO and a 50-80% chance of exceeding 70 degree across the Quad State on Sunday. For a comparison, many of the record highs at the climate sites are in the low 70s. Record warm overnight low records are also likely to be broken.

The next chance for widespread rain (80-90 percent chance) will be Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a strong cold front pushes through the area from the west. Instability still looks to be weak with this system. The probabilities of surface based instability greater than or equal to 200 J/kg are only around 15-20 percent over mainly SEMO into southern IL. That is largely a result of poor mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, which has remained fairly steady over the past several model runs. Dewpoints have trended into the low 60s for Sunday, which perhaps nudges the severe risk up very slightly. The system is dynamic with 0-6km shear values progged to be around 40-50kts out of the west and 0-3km shear values around 30-40kts out of the west. That would put the shear vectors orthogonal to the line of strongly forced showers/few storms. Still not looking like a high-end severe threat, but it is possible that a few damaging wind gusts could occur and maybe a brief/weak spin up tornado Sunday afternoon/evening. The entire Quad State area is under a marginal risk severe weather, largely for the threat of damaging wind gusts.

Outside of any showers/storms, winds will still be quite gusty as the pressure gradient tightens and cold air advection increases into the area. In fact, gusts could exceed 35 mph Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (about a 30-50 percent chance) in SEMO into southern IL. Most locations will see around a half inch of rainfall from this system. As colder air quickly filters in on the back side of the cold front, a brief change over to snow showers is possible late Sunday night into Monday morning; however, no travel impacts are expected.

A brief shot of colder air is set to arrive for Monday into Tuesday with highs struggling to get above freezing. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper teens to around 20. There is a good chance (50-80 percent chance) that wind chill values will drop into the upper single digits above zero Monday night into Tuesday morning.

High temperatures will warm to near or above freezing for Wednesday into Thursday with mainly dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1048 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Patchy dense fog has already begun to develop at KPAH and KCGI. Fog is expected to turn more widespread overnight with a 70-90% chance of widespread LIFR conditions across the region. There is a 50-70% chance that areas of dense fog will develop Saturday morning as a stout inversion in the lowest 1500 ft of the column becomes even more robust. Mixing on the latest model guidance is now slower to occur, with a 40-60% chance of not returning to MVFR conditions across most terminals until the afternoon hours. Light & variable winds turn SE between 5-10 kts on Saturday. Uncertainty increases towards the end of the TAF period with guidance hinting at lower cigs returning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ075- 080>082-084>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>017- 020>022.