textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures run near to slightly above normal (50s) through the weekend, and continue with above normal temperatures (60s) through next week. There is a 40-80%/40-60% chance that high temperatures reach 70 degrees or better next Wednesday/Thursday, the warmest days of the week.

- A rainy weekend is expected, with rainfall amounts projected to generally be between 0.75-1.5" with the higher totals most likely to occur along the southernmost portions of Southeast Missouri and Western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The synoptic scale shows an upper trough to the east and an upper ridge pushing into the Quad State. Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal as the ridge center passes overhead. High pressure is located over the Carolinas with low pressure emerging into the Southern Plains. The onshoring disturbance from off the Pacific Coast is surging to join that developing low; however, a stronger upper-level low in the Desert Southwest takes over during the day today with the resulting reorganized low shifting to a track across the Deep South Sunday.

Models, especially the CAMs, have become fairly well aligned on split waves of precipitation with more scattered pockets of lighter rain in between. The northern stream aligns with the west-east band of vorticity with the weakening initial low. As the low reforms and tracks further south, this band of moisture decreases in potency and results in lower precipitation values further east. Central Missouri to St Louis will see some of the higher totals with this band. Across Illinois and Indiana, this may line up more favorably north of the I-64 corridor. For the Quad State, I-64 would thus be a bit more prone to higher values from this feature. The southern stream of moderate to heavy precipitation takes shape later in the day, in a more SW to NE orientation from the Deep South to southern portions of the Quad State, and tracks eastward through the night into Sunday. With the low centered near TN/MS, amounts will tend to decrease further north but a band of heavier precipitation is likely to form, possibly affecting the Southern Pennyrile but may be closer to Clarksville or Nashville. WPC has a D1 Marginal Risk ERO for northwestern and southern portions of the Quad State with the unusual shape being driven by these two separate features. It is possible for some relatively low rainfall totals in between. Overall rainfall totals have lowered to around 0.75-1.5" which is a healthy middle ground between the drier HREF and the wetter NBM (which has a 70-90% chance of 1+ inch, 15-50% chance of 2+ inches). With dry conditions and rainfall spread out over 30-36 hours, flooding issues should be minimal. The best potential for nuisance flooding may be early Sunday from around Murray to Elkton, KY if the stronger wrap-around rain band sets up there rather than further south. Given the very dry winter and current D0-D2 drought conditions, the rainfall should mostly be beneficial.

Ridging and dry weather starts out next week. Winds quickly turn to southerly and become breezy Tuesday-Wednesday as low pressure tracks along the northern U.S. with precipitation staying to the north. Models have decent agreement on a surface low taking form in the Central Plains and tracking towards the Great Lakes Thursday which may bring rain to the area with a frontal passage. A southern stream along a broad trough brings instability and precipitation potential for the start of the weekend, but may set up more favorably southeast of the Quad State, depending on where the prior frontal boundary is positioned at that point. PoPs are smeared across the Thursday- Saturday timeframe, but should consolidate once frontal passage timing becomes more clear.

Slightly above normal temperatures warm further for the start of the next week, with 70s possible Wednesday and Thursday aided by breezy southerly winds. A frontal passage should lead to cooler temperatures to end the week. Lows will be much warmer tonight with the ongoing system, and midweek with breezy southerly winds continuing overnight with lows in the mid-50s possible Tuesday night. Lows are likely to return to the 30s following the late week cold front.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A messy aviation forecast with a system starting to make its way through as of late tonight/tomorrow morning. A BKN to OVC high deck is making its way through from the west and southwest. This deck will gradually lower to IFR and even LIFR in spots tomorrow afternoon onward.

Rain is expected to start making its way across the area from the southwest tomorrow morning and may impact CGI as early as 17Z ish. Under heavier showers visibility may be affected at times. All the terminals will be impacted by 00Z.

Winds will generally be light and variable and turning southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon when they could pick up to around 6-8 kts. Winds will pick up even more in the evening to around 7-10 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.