textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms (20-30% chance) are possible this afternoon and early evening. The most likely area for severe storm development will be south of our area, but it can't be completely ruled out in southern portions of southeast MO.

- Drier air with lower humidity (dew points only in the 50s) works into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a lingering influence continuing into late week. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be slightly below normal.

- While rain chances (20-30%) return Friday night into Saturday, greater chances (40-60%) hold off until next Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels also spike upwards again with a 70-80% chance at dew points exceeding 70 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

In the wake of a morning MCS, our region is well worked over and seems unlikely to recover enough for much in the way of additional storm development. Visible satellite shows a well defined cu field from south central MO into northeast AR, which is where convection is likely to generate and gradually drift southward. Recent runs of the HRRR depict this well. This corridor is still close enough that we can't completely rule out some development in southern portions of southeast MO mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile, additional development may occur across the Wabash Valley and points north as the leading edge of drier air pushes southwest from central IL/IN. Any convection up that way likely wouldn't be severe though.

If any convection does manage to develop this afternoon it would likely dissipate by sunset or so, leaving behind a dry forecast overnight. Surface high pressure sinking south across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will filter in lower humidity with dew points falling through the 50s on Tuesday. Heck, LREF guidance even has roughly a 50-70% chance at dew points falling below 50 in the Evansville Tri-State region! This refreshing airmass remains in place through late week. Although we may see a bit of an uptick by Thursday and Friday (dew points around 60 again) as southerly flow kicks back in with the surface high centered more across the central Appalachians.

A northern stream shortwave moves from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, with the main boundary likely staying north of our cwa. However, we might see a glancing blow across our northern counties Friday night into Saturday (20-30% rain chances return). At the same time, a southern stream wave ejects northeast into the Southern Plains this weekend with moisture surging back towards our area by Saturday afternoon which could induce some convection. This seems more likely to hold off until Saturday night or Sunday though as the main wave gets closer. Dew points will likely exceed 70 degrees again by Sunday into early next week. LREF probabilities even have a 40% chance at reaching 75 degrees by next Mon/Tues. Thus this will keep pretty decent rain chances in place as the upper wave approaches and makes passage.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Northeast winds around 5kts or less will increase by late morning to 6-12kts with gusts of 15-18kts, then decreasing back down to around 5kts by 00z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.