textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat and humidity continue today, with a Heat Advisory in effect for heat indices peaking above 100 for the 7th consecutive day.

- Daily chances of showers and storms are forecast through the next week. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures trend towards more seasonable readings Sunday through next week which should keep heat index readings below 100 most days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Heat index values 100-105 will continue across the Quad State through sunset, which definitely supports the existing Heat Advisory. However, there will be no need to continue it into Sunday or beyond.

MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg will keep showers and storms developing over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and at least the Purchase Area of Kentucky this afternoon. The instability is not as strong as it was yesterday, but the DCAPE is still over 1000J/kg, so some healthy downdrafts will be possible, but hopefully not as prominent as they were yesterday.

An MCS over western Missouri will continue to press eastward possibly reaching the northwest portions of the Quad State by early evening. DCAPE values ahead of it are around 1500J/kg, so some acceleration is possible. There certainly is potential for the line to produce some severe wind gusts as it approaches the region, but it should be weakening as it moves into and through the Quad State. Unfortunately, this could play havoc with some fireworks displays.

For Sunday and beyond, general troughiness aloft will remain in place over the Quad State, while more typical summertime heat and humidity settle in at the surface. The troughiness will result in persistent unsettled weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there is no sign of any significant severe weather, but an isolated strong to severe storm will be possible in the heat of each day. Likewise, locally heavy rainfall could lead to some isolated flooding impacts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Widely scattered TSRA could impact KCGI, KPAH, and KMVN this afternoon. Gusty winds could accompany any storms this afternoon. Another round of SHRA/TSRA could move through the region late this evening into the overnight hours. Limited TS to KMVN and KCGI, as it should be weakening as it moves farther east.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.