textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon through sunset over most of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana, and a portion of northwest Kentucky, while a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley. Southwest winds at 15-30 mph and gusting 35-50 mph are expected, with the strongest winds over southern Illinois.

- An area of thunderstorms is expected to move southeast across much of the region late this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible, primarily along the Interstate 64 corridor through southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

- Additional showers and storms are expected (40-70%) Thursday and Thursday night over the Missouri Bootheel and west Kentucky, with lesser chances farther north and west. A few strong to severe storm with damaging winds cannot be ruled out over west Kentucky in the afternoon.

- Dry, cooler, and less humid conditions are expected Friday into Saturday, before another period of unsettled weather arrives Saturday night through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Guidance continues to indicate very strong winds throughout the depth of the troposphere later today and tonight. While the strongest winds will be over central and northern Illinois, surface winds over the Quad State will be quite strong and support a Wind Advisory over most of the region. The weakest winds will be over west Kentucky, where a Lake Wind Advisory was issued for Lake Barkley and Kentucky Lake. Sustained winds may push 30 mph (20-45% chance) over northern portions of southern Illinois, while gusts over 40 mph are a near certainty along and north of Highway 13 in southern Illinois and into southwest Indiana. The winds are expected to build through the afternoon with the strongest winds after 5 PM.

The severe weather parameter space this afternoon and evening over central and northern Illinois back into northern Missouri is rather frightening with immense shear and moderate instability expected. Given the extreme shear, the storms are expected to remain discrete as they approach the Quad State after 10 PM. The instability will be modest compared to farther north, but the shear will remain quite strong in the 0-1km, 0-3km, and 0-6km layers. If tornadic supercells enter the region, the shear would be sufficient for them to continue into and through the Evansville Tri State area through around 3 AM. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and even some large hail will be possible.

The convective potential for Thursday is quite muddled at this time. There is evidence that the outflow boundary from the overnight storms could push to the south of the Quad State, which would keep the primary focus for vigorous convection to our south. However, the cold front will remain over our region and much of the higher-resolution guidance develops storms along it roughly from Doniphan to Paducah to Madisonville around 18Z. The 0-6km shear will remain healthy, but the lower-level shear will be weak. The HREF indicates that instability south of the front could climb to 2000J/kg, which could support a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds as the main threat through the afternoon. SPC has pushed the Slight Risk to east of the Quad State. If clouds hold down the instability, Thursday may be a complete dud over our region.

A nice dry intrusion will spread south over the Quad State Friday and Saturday, but south winds will bring more chances of showers and storms to the region as early as Saturday night. A period of unsettled weather is then expected through the first half of next week with multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible. QPF is currently in the 2-3" range through this period, so a flooding threat could develop.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions are expected overnight.

Southwest winds will pick up during the day and become quite strong by late morning to early afternoon with gusts in the 30 to 35 kt range anticipated much of the rest of the day. Convection may start to become a threat from the north by late tomorrow evening at the more northern terminals.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093. MO...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-109>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>087. KY...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ014-018. Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ007>009-011-012.