textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs warming into the upper 50s to around 60.

- Numerous showers (80%-100% chance) with embedded rumbles of thunder are expected Wednesday night into Thursday. A few strong storms are possible.

- Between 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rainfall is forecast across the area. There is a 50%-70% chance of seeing more than a half inch from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. The greatest chances are over western KY and southwest IN.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure will shift off to the east of the area Wednesday afternoon, allowing warmer/more moist southerly flow to increase. As the high shifts east of the area, a cold front is expected to approach from the west Wednesday night into the day Thursday. The combination of moisture and forcing will allow showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across the area. Instability is forecast to be very weak with marginal lapse rates (6-6.5C/km); however, wind shear will be around 40kts out of the west to southwest. This could lead to a few stronger wind gusts reaching the surface; however, this looks like a fairly limited risk at this point. Surface dewpoint are expected to increase to around the low to mid 50s into western KY and southeast MO. Typically a dewpoint of 60 degrees or better would greatly increase the threat of seeing severe weather; however, the probabilities of seeing 60 degree dewpoints are only around 5-10% right along the KY/TN border. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 0.5-1.00 inch range with most of the area seeing a 50% chance of seeing a half inch or more or rain. Outside of any thunderstorm activity winds are forecast to gust to around 30-40 mph(60-70% chance).

Behind the frontal boundary, below normal temperatures are expected to pushing into the area for Friday. In fact, high temperatures will only be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

The flow becomes a bit flatter (more zonal) across the area for the weekend as a couple shortwaves pass through the area. This may lead to a few shower, mainly Saturday night into Sunday. The chances are fairly low at or around 15-20%. Most locations will see less than a tenth of an inch or rainfall. The flattening flow will allow temperatures to warm to near or slightly above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The TAFs are VFR, but MVFR ceilings may approach KCGI and KPAH by late afternoon. LLWS will be a concern tonight. Otherwise, south to southwest winds at 5-10kts will be the rule through the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.