textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances (20-40%) of showers and a few storms return tonight to areas of southern Illinois north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.

- Numerous widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread southeast across the entire region Monday night into Tuesday morning, with 80-100% chances Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

- Chances (20% north to 60-70% southeast) of showers will linger into Wednesday, with a few thunderstorms still possible near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders, then showers will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday night.

- Rainfall amounts continue to trend lower, with the latest forecast amounts mostly in the one to one and three quarters of an inch range. Chances of greater than an inch are 60-80%, and greater than 2 inches are 15-30%.

- Low end chances (20-30%) of showers and storms are forecast Friday afternoon into Friday night and again on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A weak upper level disturbance moving through the area tonight will bring 20-40% chances of showers and a few storms to southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and portions of southern Illinois north of Route 13, mainly from around midnight through daybreak. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a tenth of an inch or less. Most of Monday will be dry, and with quite a bit of sun and breezy south to southwest winds, high temperatures will be well above normal around 80 degrees.

Late Monday, models show a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southwest into Oklahoma. Out ahead of the front, showers and some thunderstorms will spread into much of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri and southwest Indiana late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, and across the rest of the PAH forecast area (fa) late Monday night. Widespread numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expect through the day Tuesday and Tuesday night, with chances in the 80-100% range through most of that time period. Models show the cold front moving through the PAH fa late Tuesday into Tuesday night, and shower and storm chances will begin to decrease from the northwest late Tuesday night. Behind the front, shower chances (20% north to 60-70% southeast) will persist Wednesday with a few storms still possible near the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders. Showers will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday night.

SPC Day 3 Outlook includes southeast Missouri and far west Kentucky in a Marginal Risk Tuesday afternoon and evening. This is based on the timing of the cold front during peak heating, so this will be something to keep an eye on.

Rainfall totals have trended downward, with amounts now from tonight through Wednesday night mostly in the one inch to one and three quarter inch range. Isolated higher amounts are possible. Chances overall of greater than an inch are at 60-80%, with chances of over 2 inches mostly around 25% or less.

By late Friday into Friday night, models show an upper level trof, potentially accompanied by a weak surface boundary, generating some light showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Saturday into Saturday night should be relatively quiet, then models show a surface low approaching from the southwest Sunday, bringing back chances of showers and a few storms. Overall chances for these two time periods are 20 to 30%, with the Sunday potential looking a little more impressive right now. We will see how the timing pans in later model runs.

As for temperatures, after the very warm conditions Monday, behind the cold front temperatures will be much cooler, with readings below normal Tuesday night through Thursday night. A slow minor warming trend will begin Friday, with near to a little above normal readings Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 552 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle. Scattered SHRA and perhaps isolated TSRA are possible at northern terminals late this evening into the overnight. All sites will experience LLWS overnight, as we lose the surface gusts this evening and 2kft winds increase to 40-45 kts out of the southwest. As mixing returns tomorrow morning, sustained winds increase to 15-18 kts with gusts in the 25-28 kt range by late morning into the afternoon. Primarily will just have SCT to BKN mid and high cloud through the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.