textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs remain 10-12 degrees above normal through tomorrow.

- A few showers or thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front tomorrow afternoon. There is a very small risk for a few severe storms with damaging wind the main concern.

- A cold front will advance Wednesday night, dropping temperatures significantly through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A couple shortwaves aloft combine into a longwave trof tomorrow and Thursday. A sfc low and strong cold front swing through the region from the northwest tomorrow. Models continue to depict moisture advecting in from central TX, keeping our dewpoints right around 57- 58 degrees, which continues to be consistent with previous forecasts. Isolated to scattered pre-frontal showers/storms are still possible mainly over southwest IN, and the KY Pennyrile Wednesday afternoon. In an environment with about 400-600 J/kg of MLCAPE and about 40 kts of bulk shear, the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) makes sense, mainly for a damaging wind threat but also a VERY conditional low-end tornado threat (will heavily depend on over achieving low level moisture and instability). Given the recent model consistency, would say that there is less than a 10% chance of moisture over performing.

Much colder air moves in behind the front to finish out the week. This brings back chilly fall temperatures with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees on Friday. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front on Thursday which will make the highs in the 50s feel chillier. Our first hard freeze (temperatures 28 degrees or less) could happen Friday night and Saturday night. Temperatures then begin to moderate slightly on Sunday with sfc ridging stemming from sfc high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Another shortwave aloft approaches and passes through on Monday, though any convection looks to remain south of us.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

It appears that most locations will keep at least an occasional light south breeze tonight, so fog formation should be limited. That said, last night's observations were mimicked in the KMVN TAF. Southwest winds will pick up with mixing in the morning and could gust 20-25kts through the afternoon. They will veer ahead of a cold front that will pass eastward across the sites in the 20Z-23Z time frame. Similarly gusty west northwest winds are expected behind the front. 4-6kft clouds will increase near and ahead of the front, and a few showers cannot be ruled out near it, especially at KOWB. The showers could bring down even stronger wind gusts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.