textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A parting shot of cold air will filter across the Quad State through tonight, leading to a cold day Saturday. The Evansville Tri State will not reach the freezing mark for high temperatures and most of the region will be in the low to mid 30s.

- South or southwest winds will be the norm Sunday through Tuesday, as temperatures climb well above normal. Tuesday will be the warmest day when it is a near certainty that the entire region will reach 60 degrees.

- The next chance for rain is Tuesday night into Wednesday, Rainfall will likely be a quarter inch or less.

- Although the details are murky at this point, there are multiple chances of rain over the last half of next week, possibly even into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A cold front has already pushed through the Quad State and northwest winds gusting 20-35 mph area advecting cooler air into the region. It is a near certainty that the Evansville Tri State will not reach the freezing mark tomorrow, while much of the area will only see low to mid 30s for highs. The gustiness should diminish this evening, and winds Saturday should be on the light side. It will be sunny, so that should help it not feel so bad despite the cold temperatures.

South winds return Sunday leading to a quick rebound to near normal levels for high temperatures. Southwest winds Monday and Tuesday will bring a nice warm up with highs in the 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night will be well above freezing throughout the region, and lows Tuesday night will be near typical normal high temperatures for this time of year.

The latest guidance is in pretty good agreement in a Tuesday night into Wednesday rainfall event. The NBM PoPs have climbed into the 55-65% range over pretty much the entire area, although the chance is only 45-50% over southeast Missouri. The 12Z ensembles agree that the chance of measurable rain (0.01" or more) is 90% or greater over the southern half of the Quad State, while the chance of 0.10" or more is more in the 50-60% range.

There are timing differences with the GFES being more into Tuesday evening and quickly shunting the rain eastward overnight into early Wednesday, while the ECENS emphasizes the overnight hours and then is slower to push it east on Wednesday. The bottom line is that most of the region will see at least some light rain at some point Tuesday night and Wednesday, but few areas, if any, will see as much as a quarter inch.

Looking at the last half of the work week, there seem to be two main scenarios amongst the 12Z guidance. The GEFS favors a quick shot of rain Tuesday night and then dries us out until late Friday when a storm system will pass to our south and bring some significant rain to the entire region Friday night into next Saturday. The ECENS is slower with the Tuesday night/Wednesday system and keeps a surface boundary in the vicinity which is then a persistent focus for rainfall Thursday and Friday. Given that we have nearly zonal flow and disturbances at different latitudes interacting with one another, confidence in the details is quite low. However, it is quite likely that more rain will reach the Quad State in the late week/early next weekend time frame.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A cold front will bring northwest winds gusting 15-25kts and MVFR ceilings as it passes early this afternoon. The MVFR ceilings will lag an hour or two behind the wind shift, but should eventually settle in east of the Mississippi River until clearing out after 06Z in most locations. The gusty winds will diminish some with sunset, but some gustiness is likely to continue into the evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.