textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal highs in the upper 80s and low 90s are expected through tomorrow, followed by cooler temperatures in the low and mid 70s beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend.

- A cold front begins to move in from west to east Thursday night into Friday bringing rain showers with PoPs peaking (80-100%) in the morning and early afternoon afternoon hours. No severe weather is expected but some thunder is possible.

- Small rain chances(10-30%) linger Saturday morning, but high pressure will build Sunday bringing dry conditions once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Deep layer ridging is increasing in intensity overhead as our afternoon temperatures once again approach 90 degrees. The flip to the sharply amplified ridging in the east is the large swirling closed low/remnants of Tropical Cyclone Polo over the southwestern US. As that system gets picked up by the westerly large scale flow our rain chances increase Thursday night, peaking on Friday as a cold front pushes through the area. Owing to its warm core roots the mid-level lapse rates with this system are quite poor which holds instability back despite fairly rich boundary layer (and column) moisture and heat ahead of the front.

A few thunderstorms appear possible but most of the activity looks to be showers or areas of broad stratiform rain. QPF totals are holding steady with an areal average between a half inch and an inch persisting in guidance this afternoon. Overall instability looks too limited for much of a severe thunderstorm threat. 2.00 inch PWAT values and deep warm cloud layer depth point towards very efficient rainfall rates but forcing/intensity still appears too modest for much flooding risk (probably about a 5-10% chance for flash flooding somewhere in the CWA) particularly given the fairly dry antecedent conditions.

Behind the front we end up with highs in the mid 70s. A secondary shot of drier and cooler air is sent this way Monday into Tuesday which looks to re-open the window to overnight lows in the upper 40s Monday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southwest winds gusting to 10 to 15 kt are anticipated through the afternoon amid VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected overnight with southwest winds returning tomorrow mid-morning a little stronger than today.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.