textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm is expected to impact the region Friday night through Sunday morning. Models have continued to trend north. NBM has a 40-70% chance of seeing 8+" of snow in 48 hrs. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to the remainder of the CWA.

- Prolonged cold is expected Friday through Monday. Saturday through Monday highs will be in the teens. Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday wind chills will be pushing or almost solidly into Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

WAA is in place today with southwest winds bringing us highs in the 40s and is also advecting low level moisture into the area. This morning's rain continues to move off to the southeast this afternoon. A cold front is expected to swing through the area tonight and shift winds around to the north and northwest.

We are under broad cyclonic flow aloft that continues tomorrow with increased sfc ridging from strong sfc high pressure over the Northern Plains. Tomorrow's highs will be slightly cooler in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday's highs will be much colder in the teens and 20s with NBM showing a 40% chance of highs less than 25 degrees for most of the area. A major winter storm is forecast to impact the Quad State Friday night through Sunday morning. By Saturday flow aloft turns more southwesterly and a sfc low pressure system forms over the TX Gulf Coast and will move northeast through LA and into western TN. This system will bring snow and ice to the MS, TN, and OH valleys. For the Quad State, models have continued to trend northward with the main moisture axis. The EC has had 3 consecutive runs now showing Paducah getting 12" of snow, while the NBM has totals around 10".

The NBM has a 40-70% chance of 48 hr snow totals greater than 8" and the LREF is pretty similar with a 40-60% chance. This is a noted increase from previous runs but is on par with the northward trend. NBM snow to liquid ratios (SLRs) may be slightly too low this run based on soundings. Some model soundings are showing lift higher up in the atmosphere (550-500 mb) within the DGZ. Saturation is also maintained from this level down to the sfc and stays below freezing the whole time. The exception to this is areas to the far southeast which could see a warm nose in the mid levels that would lead to icing concerns. There are modest winds below 650 mb so dendrites may not fracture quite as much. Finally, there is more brief lift within the DGZ between 900 and 975 mb. Given all this, I have increased the SLRs from what NBM had and made them closer to 13-14 for most of the heart of the CWA. We will also have sufficient lift aloft from the right entrance region of a strong jet, along with frontogenetic forcing at the sfc.

The above mentioned icing concerns for the far southeast portions of the CWA would be mixed in with snow totals. Right now the NBM has trended up with the icing totals to around 0.08". These icing concerns could spread further north if models keep trending north with the system as a whole.

Due to the very cold and dry air coming off the Northern Plains from the strong sfc high pressure, there will likely be a sharp cutoff in the northern edge snow gradient. Even with this sharp cutoff, snow totals have trended north enough to warrant an extension of the Winter Storm Watch to our northern counties. Now the entire CWA is included in the watch. This system is still several days out and plenty can change between now and then.

Prolonged cold is expected Friday through Monday. Saturday through Monday highs look to be in the teens across the Quad State. Thursday night portions of the area will be pushing Cold Weather Advisory criteria (0 for the southeast and -5 elsewhere). Friday night wind chills will be almost solidly into Cold Weather Advisory criteria and again Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures will start to moderate slightly Tuesday and Wednesday but will still be well below average.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

It is looking more and more likely that the low MVFR ceilings will linger through most of the evening at KPAH, KEVV and KOWB. If there is clearing before the weak cold frontal wind shift arrives at those sites, weakening winds could allow for some fog formation. Mentioned some BR, but kept it VFR for now, given the uncertainties with the clearing. Southwest winds will gradually weaken ahead of the front this evening, resulting in some LLWS concern in the late evening. Once the winds turn to the northwest later tonight, they should continue well under 10kts for the remainder of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.