textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another chilly night expected tonight with wind chill readings dropping into the mid teens above zero late tonight into Monday morning. The chance of seeing wind chill readings below 15 degrees is only around 10 percent.

- Temperatures will briefly warm above normal Monday through Wednesday before dropping well below normal for the end of the week into next weekend. Normal high temperatures are in the low to mid 40s with normal lows in the mid to upper 20s.

- A couple small chances (20-30%) for precipitation are forecast through this week, with the greatest chance being Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The rain may briefly transition to light snow before ending Wednesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

High pressure will linger across the area this evening before shifting off to the east late tonight into Monday. Clear skies and lighter winds tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s. There will be just enough breeze that wind chill readings my end up in the mid teens above zero with only around a 10 percent chance that wind chills drop lower than that.

The high will depart to the east on Monday, allowing for southerly flow to increase at the surface with somewhat flatter (though still troughed) upper-level flow into the area. This will allow temperatures to moderate and even warm to above normal for Monday through Wednesday. That would put highs in the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday. For comparison, normal highs are in the low to mid 40s and normal lows are in the mid to upper 20s. There's even about a 40-50% chance that portions of southeast Missouri will see high temperatures reach 60 degrees on Tuesday!!

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday evening as a strong cold front and deep trough digs into the Quad State area. This will bring a 20-30 percent chance of rain for that time period; however, enough cold air may filter in before the precipitation ends Wednesday evening to transition the rain over to snow for a brief period of time. A dusting of snow is also possible over western Kentucky and southwest Indiana Wednesday evening. In fact, the probability of seeing around between 0.1-0.3 inches of snow is around 30-40 percent over the Pennyrile into southwest Indiana. Current models trends and forecast soundings do support that scenario with ice expected in the cloud layer and the shallow warm layer cooling quickly through the evening. The warm temperatures prior to any snow would likely limit overall impacts. Single digit wind chills will be an issue again for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with temperatures dropping into the teens with a strong wind behind the cold front passage.

The next potential system will arrive on Saturday, which may provide a slightly better chance of some snow for portions of the area; however, confidence is very low for details on that system at this time. From model to model and run to run consistency in the deterministic models. The ensembles show a significant spread in what happens with the 500 mb trough digging southeastward during that time and the ensemble forecasts keep the greatest probability of QPF southeast of the Quad State for Saturday. Just worth noting for now and something to keep an eye on toward the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Good flying conditions expected through this TAF issuance with VFR flight rules. A scattered to broken ceilings is expected at EVV/OWB for the first few hours of this TAF issuance before improving conditions late this afternoon and evening. Winds will steadily decrease through tonight and early Monday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.