textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost is possible early this morning and climatologically cooler locations, while patchy frost is possible east of the Mississippi River.

- A chance (25-50%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast Sunday night into Monday, with the highest chances along the Interstate 64 corridor.

- Widespread soaking rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely (60-90%) chance Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. - During the Tuesday to Wednesday period, there is a 50-80% chance of the region seeing at least 1 inch of rain and a 20-30% chance of over 2 inches of rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Clearing skies and calming winds have allowed for some patchy dense fog to develop in climatologically favored areas that received some rainfall on Saturday. An SPS has been issued for this concern. Meanwhile, the clear skies and calm winds are allowing for temperatures to fall to the upper 30s to lower 40s early this morning. A few sheltered spots could reach the mid-30s and develop some frost.

On the synoptic scale, the eastern trough begins to flatten with flow aloft becoming more zonal locally today. Surface winds shift to the SSW as high pressure sets up to the southeast. Low pressure tracking through Ontario early next week trails a cold front from Michigan to the Desert Southwest. This front lingers over the Quad State Tuesday-Wednesday, allowing for a longer duration rain event.

A weak shortwave disturbance moves through tonight, producing some showers and possibly a few storms, with the best chances along the I-64 corridor. Low pressure over Oklahoma Monday, fed with Gulf moisture advected with breezy SSW winds gusting to 25-30mph, leads to the onset of showers and thunderstorms Monday night. The slowly sagging frontal boundary will provide a focus for continued rain Tuesday-Wednesday with thunderstorm chances remaining, as low pressure areas track east- northeastward near the boundary. Storms are projected to be elevated, with limited but non-zero potential for severe weather (aside from a sliver in the northwest in a D1 Marginal Risk, the lone severe weather outlook area is a D3 Marginal Risk in SEMO). Guidance is fairly steady with rainfall totals generally in the 1-2 inch range Tuesday-Wednesday. The deterministic NBM seems a little higher than the ensemble mean at the moment. A D4 marginal risk ERO remains, as rainfall is spread out enough, along with antecedent dry soils, to mitigate flooding potential.

Less confidence exists for later events that may bring precipitation to the region, including an upper level disturbance rounding the base of the upper trough Wednesday night, or the eastward progression of an early week closed low in the southwestern U.S. once we get to late-week.

Below normal temperatures remain today, but a shift to SSW winds lifts temperature above normal to near 80 for Monday. Breezy winds overnight keeps lows elevated tonight and Monday night. Once the frontal boundary passes, however, temperatures will return to below normal for the remainder of the week with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Patchy fog, generally east of the Mississippi, will clear up early this morning. VFR conditions remain through the day, with breezy winds out of the SSW. Cloud heights lower tonight, with showers streaming through northern portions of the Quad State. A few thunderstorms are possible with those showers.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.