textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms late this afternoon into the early overnight hours. The primary severe hazard will be damaging winds, but an isolated tornado or large hail report cannot be ruled out.

- A Flood Watch continues for the additional heavy rain and associated flooding hazard from multiple rounds of storms thru Saturday night, when a final round of storms may bring strong to severe potential again, in addition to localized flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Broad swath 1-3" across SEMO/SWIL/far WKY did contain within it pockets of heavier amounts cumulatively totaling 2-3x the areal average, resulting in localized flooding where that occurred. Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon into the early overnight hours, not dissimilar to the timing of yesterday's round but perhaps displaced some to the east with the main axis of convection. The wave will dive southeast from ne MO across scntrl IL into sw IN tonight. It will have sufficient energy/juice this evening to yield a similar to yesterday severe threat for damaging winds primarily, but an isolated tornado or large hail report cannot be ruled out. If training/repeat storms get going, our forecast average amounts of an additional 1-2" thru the weekend may see localized totals twice that or better, keeping the flooding concern going into the weekend. A final round late Saturday into Saturday night will yield small severe chances and more heavy rain to contend with, but geographic location and timing is a little more uncertain owing to the previous day(s) convection and how that'll ultimately be modelled...stay tuned for fine tunes.

While pcpn chances may linger into early next week, it does look like we transition to a higher pressure influenced sensible wx forecast overall, resulting in a little hotter/drier conditions by the back half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Continued restricted bases/CIGS linger today, but may SCT to VFR at times before the next increase in pcpn chances incoming late today and especially overnight tonight. Expect CIGS/VSBYS restrictions to go as low as Instrument Flight Rules with gusty thunderstorm wind potential as the parent convection-driving wave makes passage late tonight-early tmrw. Some improvement in conditions is expected by late in the planning phase hours of the forecast as the wave departs.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.