textproduct: Paducah
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A cold front is moving through the Quad State this afternoon. Rain coverage and intensity is beginning to decrease but light rain may persist through this evening.
- Temperatures become more seasonably normal today through the week ahead, with dry weather expected for the weekend and next week. Late next week the probabilities are climbing for above normal (but not exceptionally hot) temperatures once again.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Widespread rainfall overnight and this morning produced between a half inch near I-64 to hot spots over 3 inches in the southern half of the area today. Pockets of heavier rain is continuing across southwest Kentucky with lingering light rain behind it. The surface front runs from the Missouri Bootheel to about Madisonville, KY at 1pm and will continue as low march south. Overrunning ascent above the cold front is redeveloping clouds and light rain over southeast Missouri and that redevelopment could continue for another couple of hours. Subtle ascent above the frontal zone will likely keep some cloud cover in place across the southern half of the area, with a small chance of a shower or two as well through the day Saturday. Although there should be a sharp cutoff between grungy low clouds and generally clear skies.
Another little shot of drier and slightly cooler air arrives Monday before a surface ridge axis passes to the east of the area and shifts our flow a little more southerly. The trend for temperatures in the mid to late week next week is upward and the probability of highs going back above 80 degrees is above 50% and climbing. Overall conditions look dry through this period.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Kept the pessimistic forecast going thanks to the presence of moisture overrunning the cold front and keeping lower cigs around but with a rather sharp cutoff along the northwest edge. MVFR cigs are more likely than the IFR cigs at this point but they will be stubborn and hang around for a while tomorrow before lifting to VFR. Winds are northeasterly at 5-10 kts throughout the period.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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