textproduct: Paducah
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Daily shower and storm chances through the weekend. The greatest chances (40-60%) will be around through this evening over southeast MO into western KY. Heavy downpours are expected, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
- Drier air arrives for much of next week, allowing for warmer conditions with little to no chances for rain.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 144 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Increased moisture and humid conditions will linger through Monday with a frontal boundary and low pressure system nearby. Chances for showers and storms will increase to around 30-60% today into this evening before dropping to around 30-40% Saturday into Sunday. This will be along and ahead of an upper-level trough drifting eastward and weakening. The greatest chances will be over SEMO into west KY, which continues to be a trend in the guidance (precipitation drifting farther southwest). In fact, those locations have about a 50-70% chance of seeing greater than one-half inch of rain today through Saturday, while the rest of the area only has about a 10-30% chance. The frontal boundary remaining mainly south and southwest of the area, coupled with very little wind shear, will keep the severe weather threat to a minimum. Heavy downpours and lightning will be the main concerns with any of the storms. PWAT values are still pushing into the 90th percentile, which again supports heavy downpour potential.
The chances for showers diminish Tuesday through Thursday with less humid conditions in place. This will be a result of a cold front drifting south through the area and dry high pressure building in from the north. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s to low 80s through the whole forecast period, but the more noticeable drop in humidity will arrive around Tuesday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Clouds will gradually lower from west to east throughout the day with MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at the CGI/MVN/PAH terminals. Thunderstorms are also possible so included a prob30 group for the potential later this morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, showers will arrive from the west throughout the day into this evening before gradually ending by late evening. Winds will remain light at less than 10kts.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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