textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 25 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

- A few storms this afternoon could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat.

- A daily 15 to 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday.

- Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

At the synoptic level early this morning, strong H5 ridging remains centered over the western CONUS, with increasing troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the northern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front moving into the southern Great Lakes and Midwest. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front is currently moving southward across central IL. While on a weakening trend, this activity may impact locations along the I-64 corridor early this morning.

For the rest of today, the chances of convection have increased during the afternoon hours, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Latest CAMs are showing moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary, boosting forecast CAPE values to 2500-3500 J/kg, along with DCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/kg. While shear will be marginal at best for severe convection (around 30 kts in the 00-06 km layer), the environment looks more supportive for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Tonight, the front will clear the area, bringing a return of quiet weather for Sunday. However, by Monday through most of next week, the mid-level flow regime will become NW as the area remains sandwiched between the western ridge and northeast trough. As shortwaves rotate around the periphery of the ridge, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday. Predictability is especially low in these setups, so timing out the precise arrival of the highest precipitation chances and severe thunderstorm risks is difficult at this range. Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values through next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of this TAF issuance; however, some shallow ground fog will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning at CGI/PAH. Otherwise, light winds and improving conditions can be expected through the day Saturday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.