textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon for areas near and east of the Mississippi River. Some of the storms could produce small hail and cold air funnel clouds.

- Another chance (25-50%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast Sunday night into Monday, with the highest chances along the Interstate 64 corridor.

- Widespread soaking rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely (60-90%) chance Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

- During the Tuesday to Wednesday period, there is a 60-80% chance of the region seeing at least 1 inch of rain and a 20-40% chance of over 2 inches of rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Scattered showers this morning over the Evansville Tri-State will gradually grow upscale to isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as they progress south and east into southeast IL and west KY. With the showers colocated with surface low pressure, freezing heights will be as low as 5500ft with surface vorticity maximized. Therefore, any thunderstorms that develop could produce small hail and cold air funnel clouds. Have already received one pea size hail report from Jefferson County, IL, so have issued a Special Weather Statement for hail and cold air funnel potential through 2230z.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Any ongoing showers and thunderstorms early this evening will quickly diminish with the loss of diurnal heating and the loss of forcing. Skies will clear and winds will become calm as high pressure briefly becomes centered over the region tonight. This will allow temperatures to dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s. However, sheltered and low-lying spots could fall into the middle 30s and see frost development. Will highlight the isolated frost potential in the HWO and social media messaging and possiblly with an SPS early this evening once the convection diminishes.

On Sunday, the region will be under zonal flow synoptically, bringing seasonably warm temperatures. During the overnight hours into Monday, a shortwave will pass just north of the area, but still close enough to bring a 25-50% chance of light rain showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the Interstate 64 corridor. Areas further south may see a few showers as well. Temperatures on Monday will warm about 5-10 degrees above normal despite the rain chances.

Tuesday into Wednesday will see a return of a more active pattern. Model guidance shows a frontal boundary sagging south into the region and becoming stationary. A couple of surface lows will pass along this boundary, mainly directly over or just south of the area. This will bring a good chance (60-90%) of much-needed soaking rain and a few thunderstorms as well beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening through Wednesday evening. As this stands now, NBM ensemble guidance shows a a 60-80% chance of the region seeing at least 1 inch of rain and a 20-40% chance of over 2 inches of rain.

The placement of the frontal boundary at this time looks to keep the area cool and any thunderstorm activity elevated and non-severe. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be about 10-15 degrees below normal. As the frontal boundary exits the area dry weather will return Thursday into Friday, with southerly return flow increasing on Friday. This will bring a return of near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact MVN, EVV, and OWB through mid-afternoon...possible spreading into the invof PAH by mid- to late-afternoon. Cannot rule out some small hail under the most intense activity, but confidence is too low to include at this time. SCT- BKN cloud bases will generally remain VFR in the 4000-8000ft range through early this evening then becoming clear. N to NNW winds of 8-12 kts will become calm or light and variable overnight, then increase from the SW around 5-10 kts after 13z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.