textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is high that a late season heatwave will impact our region next week, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Overnight lows also look quite balmy, remaining in the mid 70s by mid to late week which may threaten some record warm lows. The prolonged duration of the heat may warrant heat headlines.

- Dry weather is expected over the next 7 days, and limited rainfall prospects may continue through Labor Day weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain a dry northeasterly flow across our region today. As the high shifts east into New England on Saturday, surface flow will start to take on a light southeasterly component which will allow highs to be a couple degrees warmer than today. Surface winds become southwesterly on Sunday helping to usher in the start of our late season heatwave. The upper level ridge currently over the southwest CONUS will shift east as we head into early next week, with a 594-596dm ridge centered across the OH/TN valleys by mid next week. There is some disagreement later in the week as subtle height falls may occur across the Ohio Valley due to a disturbance passing by to our north. This solution is fairly low confidence at this point though, and most likely wouldn't allow temperatures to cool down much at all. There is certainly some agreement that the ridge may largely remain in tact heading into Labor Day weekend.

LREF probabilities for MaxTs reaching at least 95 degrees are quite high mid to late week, peaking in the 80-95% range Wednesday and Thursday. There is even a decent chance (30-40%) that a few locations reach 100. This is most likely for areas of southeast MO or southern IL. Humidity levels remain lower than we've experienced during previous heatwaves, with dew points primarily in the 65 to 70 degree range. Therefore, heat index readings shouldn't get carried away, remaining in the 98-104 range. The prolonged duration of this heatwave may warrant heat headlines though and it looks like ambient temperatures may be amongst some of the hottest we've experienced this summer. Heatrisk continues to suggest major to extreme impacts from the heat Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows also look quite warm, remaining in the mid 70s mid to late week. This may challenge some daily record warm lows.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement keeping our area dry over the next 7 days, with some signal that this dry pattern may continue through at least Labor Day weekend. Guess we have earned it after the very wet summer that most of our region endured (Wettest summer on record at Cape Girardeau and 2nd wettest in Paducah).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

High pressure overhead will lead to good flight conditions through the period. SCT cu development expected by midday with bases of 4-6kft. Skies clear after sunset and mainly calm winds overnight may lead to some patchy fog development.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.