textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal pcpn is forecast; the wettest time periods look to be Friday and Sunday thru Wednesday.

- 1 to 2 inches of average total rainfall is expected thru mid week next. There is at least a 60% chance that 1 inch is realized by the end of the weekend; there is a 40-60% chance 2 inches is exceeded by next Wednesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

While a more actively 'wet' pattern is emerging, it will not be wet/rainy the whole time. Rather, we'll see it in surges, tied to periodic pulses or waves of energy that spread out over a week's time. Storm total average qpf thru mid week next is 1-2", but localized higher amounts may be realized via convection and/or any repeat training that may occur. The NAEFS E-SAT depicts 99th percentile 1.75"+ PW's with 5-10 yr R.I'.s with the first round Friday-Friday night, so heavier rain potential exists. This may ultimately lead to minor/localized nuisance flooding as it occurs, with some minor river flooding potential esp on our smaller stems; this latter pattern is already onsetting and will be watched closely for expansion as the real-time basin totals are incorporated.

Saturday offers an in-between recovery day for most as the Friday surge departs and the next surge preps for Sunday onset. The models suggest the best strong-svr risk remains south and/or east with time, including Friday, but return flow moisture/instability and increasing bulk shear with strengthening flow overhead as the first low pressure wave(s) surge across southern Ky does support the existing MRGL risk in the warm sector/over the Pennyrile mainly east of the Lakes.

Thanks to the high pops daily, sky cover and pcpn results in temps that will spend most of their daytime in the 70s and night-time in the 60s...ie muted...despite actual highs in the lower 80s for most of that time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Breaks in restricted bases may occur but will be relatively short-lived by comparison, as another surge of moistening is anticipated later tonight into Friday. It'll bring increasing pcpn chances with it, which will further offer restriction potential for VSBYS.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.