textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon and into the evening. All severe hazards are possible.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through the weekend. Additional storm total amounts of 0.75-2" is possible with locally higher amounts possible as well. A Flood Watch is in effect through late tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A disturbance just to the north will work in tandem with a boundary to produce scattered showers and storms today. Cloud cover is slowing destabilization late this morning but some breaks in cloud cover are occurring. Better instability is located across the southern row of counties in KY and across west Tennessee. The general consensus is for scattered development this afternoon with activity pushing southeast into the evening. The threat for severe weather will be supported by 30-35 knots of bulk shear and 1500-2500 J/Kg of CAPE.

The upper level disturbance is slow to move east into Sunday but does move into portions of central Kentucky by then. Northerly winds behind the low will bring drier air into the region but chances for a few showers or storms remain in the forecast for eastern areas. High pressure takes over next week bringing drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures gradually climb into the upper 80s by midweek and near 90 by the end of the week. Lower end afternoon rain/storm chances are in the forecast next week but coverage is expected to be much less then what we have been seeing over the past several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Scattered TSRA has developed across the region and will remain possible across all terminals through sunset. Isolated stronger storms are not ruled out, but will quickly diminish with the loss of diurnal heating. MVFR/IFR cigs then become the main concern across most terminals early Sunday morning, while KMVN will be on the outer extent. Low cigs gradually transition to VFR by Sunday afternoon, but there is a PROB30 for isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage across the eastern terminals.

Light & variable winds tonight become north between 5-10 kts on Sunday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.