textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold will continue this morning, with wind chill values of -10 to -20 degrees across the area. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect.

- Temperatures will moderate slightly today into Wednesday, with a 30-60% of temperatures climbing above freezing in southeast Missouri today and a 20-60% on Wednesday.

- Another Arctic outbreak is forecast Friday into next weekend. Forecast wind chill values will again approach dangerous values, with a 50-90% chance of subzero wind chills on Friday morning and a 50-90% chance of wind chills below -10 degrees Saturday morning.

- Despite the variable temperatures, no significant precipitation chances are forecast for the next seven days.

UPDATE

Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Dangerous cold will continue this morning with clear skies, and fresh snow pack will allow temperatures by daybreak to fall into the single digits. Combined with steady southwest winds of 7-15 mph, wind chill values of -10 to -20F will be possible. The Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through 16z.

The southwest winds are sign of ongoing warm advection and rising H5 heights in the NW flow in the synoptic pattern. This will allow temperatures to moderate a bit today into Wednesday. High temperatures today and Wednesday, while still 5 to 15 degrees below normal, will reach the middle 20s to lower and middle 30s today. In fact, in southeast Missouri, there will be a 30-60% chance of high temperatures climbing above freezing today and a 20-60% chance on Wednesday. Plentiful sunshine will allow for the some melting and sublimation of the snow pack as well. However, morning low temperatures will still very cold, mainly in the single digits and low teens. However, with light winds, actual and apparent temperatures look to stay above Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

The short-lived reprieve from the cold will end on Friday, as another wave of bitter cold Arctic air will descent into the Midwest from the Canadian Prairie provinces. As the 1044 mb surface high becomes centered over the region Friday into Saturday. Ensemble guidance shows 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 to -20C, which is around the 1st to 5th percentiles. The NBM initialization shows high temperatures Friday and Saturday only reaching the middle teens to lower 20s, and overnight lows near the zero degree mark. Wind chill values will approach Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Warning values again, with a 50-90% chance of subzero wind chills on Friday morning and a 50-90% chance of wind chills below -10 degrees Saturday morning.

At this time, ensemble guidance shows the Arctic high gradually shifting east of the region Sunday into early next week. This will allow temperatures to gradually moderate again, but will still remain about 15 to 25 degrees below normal. Despite the variable temperatures, dry conditions are expected through the forecast period. Depending on how intense the frontal passage and resulting CAA regime is Thursday into Friday, will need to watch for possible snow shower development, but any accumulations will be minimal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Increasing warm advection will bring steady SW winds through 24z today, sustained at 7-12 kts before relaxing and becoming calm overnight. Skies will be mainly clear, but some passing mid- cloud decks will impact EVV, MVN, and OWB this afternoon. Cannot rule out some patchy fog developing after 09z Wednesday as the snow pack continues to melt, but confidence was too low to include at this time.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.