textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will approach or exceed record high values today, and again Friday.

- A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance) will move into the area late tonight into Thursday morning, bringing much-needed rainfall of 0.25-0.50 inches.

- A few thunderstorms may redevelop Thursday afternoon (30-50% chance) into the early evening (20-30%), and an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out.

- A cold front will bring another good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, followed by cooler and dry quiet weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Broad scale ridging over much of the country has led to another day with highs in the upper 70s into the 80s with near record to record temperatures (highs or warm minimums) today. Breezy winds have gusted to 20-35mph out of the SSW today ahead of a storm system. Afternoon showers/storms are generally northwest of the coverage area, with a few showers reaching far northwestern portions of the Quad State.

Low pressure in far southeast Nebraska tracks towards Lake Michigan tonight into early tomorrow. A decaying line of showers and storms moves through the Quad State late tonight into early Thursday. A few strong storms are possible but only the western edge of the CWA is in a marginal risk tonight. Only a few models like the FV3 show redevelopment of storms Thursday afternoon, so PoPs remain but have shifted lower to the 30-50% range. A marginal risk of severe weather covers the Quad State Thursday due to the possibility of afternoon storms developing on a residual boundary as lapse rates steepen, but residual boundaries have limited model support. Rainfall from tonight- Thursday generally ranges from a quarter to half an inch (higher totals more likely in the southwest, lower totals in the northeast).

Breezy southerly winds return Friday with ridging expanding back northward. Temperatures surge into the mid to upper 80s, potentially challenging records, and a 90 degree ob or two is possible.

Eastern ridging finally breaks down as a strong cold front moves through sometime between Friday night and Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible, with a D4 slight risk clipping part of SW Indiana. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe threat. Another quarter to half inch of rain is forecast (higher totals favoring the NE and lower the SW), bringing the two event total to around a half inch to an inch, which would provide some but limited drought relief.

Cooler and drier conditions surge into the area Sunday into early next week as a broad area of high pressure moves across the country. Highs lower to the 60s to lower 70s Sunday, then trend warmer through much of next week. Lows trend similarly, falling to near 40 over the weekend and then warming to the 50s by mid-week. Active weather returns late next week, with significant model uncertainty regarding multiple low pressure systems.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A few showers will move near the western/northwestern edges of the CWA this afternoon. Cigs lower into the evening through the night. MVFR conditions are possible late tonight with showers and thunderstorms (with better chances of thunder in the south), as are MVFR vsbys. Southwesterly breezes, gusting to 20-24kts today, lower to around 10kts tonight/tomorrow. A lull in shower activity is expected during the morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.