textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Near seasonable temperatures in the 60s today will be followed by a return to record or near record temperatures. There is a 50-70% chance of high temperatures reaching 85 degrees on Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night, peaking at a 60-70% chance after midnight and into Friday morning. A few storms may be strong along I-64, but the better severe weather risk is focused north of the region.

- Temperatures will be roughly 25 to 30 degrees cooler on Friday with a 40-50% chance of low temperatures reaching 32 degrees Saturday morning for areas along and north of I-64.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Surface high pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley will continue to influence our weather today with light easterly flow in place. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon. The HRRR/RAP mix down some very dry air across our cwa by mid to late afternoon. Have trended towards those solutions for dew points and RHs. Most areas likely observe minimum RH's below 25% today, and there is a good chance parts of southeast MO, far southern IL, and western KY observe values in the 15-20% range. Fuel levels were already in the 7-8% range yesterday, so will likely be similar today. Winds will be rather light though, generally only 5-7 kts.

As the surface high departs further east, southerly winds return on Wednesday helping to usher in a return of above normal temps. Highs reach well into the 70s for Wednesday and there is even a 50-60% chance at reaching 80 in the Ozark Foothills. Record highs appear likely again on Thursday as we reach well into the 80s. A few monthly records may be threatened again with a good chance (50-70%) at reaching 85 degrees across the cwa. The Ozark Foothills have a 70% chance at reaching 90.

A disturbance moving across the Great Lakes will allow a cold front to sink south into our region Thursday night into Friday. We continue to monitor this system for the potential for strong to severe storms, but the timing continues to favor only a low end threat with storms primarily coming through after midnight Thursday night and into Friday morning. The best kinematics/forcing with this system will be north of us and MLCAPE doesn't look overly impressive, with current depiction only running about 500 J/kg. If the boundary were to speed up and storms snuck in Thursday evening we may have a bit more instability to play with, so we will have to see how that plays out. QPF amounts look rather light, with only a 20-30% chance at receiving greater than a 0.5".

Much colder temperatures will be felt on Friday with highs only in the 50s for the northern half of the area. As 850mb temps fall to around or slightly below 0C Saturday morning, overnight lows will fall to near or just below freezing across our northern counties (40- 50% chance). A 1040mb surface high overhead on Saturday keeps us chilly. This will be another short-lived cool down though as upper heights begin to rise on Sunday into early next week with above normal temperatures returning. There is a 50-60% chance at highs reaching at least 75 next Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 449 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Surface high pressure migrates from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley this package. Surface flow around the high will veer from north to east; near term gusts will be lost shortly after the diurnal input is relaxed. Gridded time/height cross sections indicate good saturation at H5 and above, with some indications for temporary periods of quasi-saturation into the H7-H5 layer. This means effectively SCT-BKN AOA 120 thru the period of this package, mostly with CIGS with the breaks to SCT occurring primarily from late morning to early afternoon tmrw.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.