textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return today (primarily in the west), peak tonight area wide (60-80% chance), and continue through the weekend (30-60% chance). High temperatures may struggle to reach 80 over the weekend with the extensive cloud cover and rain potential, which could threaten record cold highs.

- A few severe storms are possible this evening with the highest chance (15%) across southeast MO and a smaller (5%) chance extending into southern IL and far west KY. Damaging winds are the primary concern but a tornado or two is possible.

- Daily chances (20-40%) of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms may continue early to mid next week along with a gradual warming trend. Highs may reach 90 again by mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A 500mb disturbance over the Northern Plains will dive southeastward across the Midwest today and into the Ohio Valley this weekend. This will prompt a cold front to push towards our region today into tonight, passing through most of the region Saturday morning. A plume of higher moisture (pwats over 2") will surge into the region ahead of the boundary. At the same time a ribbon of higher instability (MLCAPE of 2000+ j/kg) will develop across Missouri by later this afternoon and early evening along with 0-6km shear increasing to 30-35 kts. Thus the environment will be supportive of a few severe storms, with CAMS suggesting convection to develop to our west and move in later this evening. It does appear to be a rather short window for severe potential though, maybe only 2-3 hours, before conditions become less favorable towards midnight and beyond. While the primary severe threat is across southeast MO, there is at least some lower potential further east (particularly if storms move in quicker this evening). While many areas may only receive 0.25-0.50" from this system, there is the potential for some heavier swaths in excess of 2" (as depicted by a couple of CAMs) which could produce localized flooding.

With the cold front pushing through much of the area Saturday morning, the primary threat for severe storms is most likely to be to our east across central KY. However, if the system slows down just enough we may have a small window late morning into early afternoon for a few stronger storms across the KY pennyrile. The trend has been a bit faster the past 24 hours though.

As the upper low spins southeastward from Central Illinois Saturday afternoon into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, scattered showers and a few isolated storms will persist across our region. Models continue to struggle to determine the placement of the upper low by Mon-Tues though, with some suggesting primarily dry conditions for our area and others keeping daily rain chances in play with a further west solution.

LREF probabilities for MaxT remaining below 80 degrees are 40-80% along and north of the Ohio River on Saturday and 50-70% for most areas east of the Mississippi River on Sunday. Thus, we could threaten a few record cold highs, which are in the mid to upper 70s at our climate sites. It will certainly be a rather chilly weekend by August standards! Temperatures will moderate early to mid next week, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s. Probabilities for reaching 90 exceed 50% across southeast MO by Wednesday and most of the region by Thu/Fri.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to weaken as it moves east across the region this afternoon. A brief TSRA will be possible at KCGi and KPAH near the beginning fo the forecast. MVFR conditions will be possible. Another round of thunderstorms will dive south through southeast Missouri late this evening overnight. More scattered TSRA will be possible farther east. MVFR ceilings and westerly winds will move in behind the storms at all sites around sunrise and continue through the end of the forecast. Some IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.