textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- As light rain exits the region this morning, it will become quite blustery. Northwest winds gusting 25-30 mph will result in falling temperatures through the afternoon. It will feel much cooler at the end of the day than it will this morning.

- By sunrise Thursday there is a 90% or better chance of wind chills dropping to 10 degrees or below over all but the far southwest portions of the region.

- There is a 20-40% chance of light snow accumulations over the Evansville Tri State region late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The greatest chances will be along and north of Interstate 64. Temperatures should be near the freezing mark, so travel impacts are not expected. Additional periods of light snow/flurries are possible across the Tri State later Friday through Saturday.

- It will be very cold this weekend and into next week with a 90% or greater chance of the Evansville Tri State remaining below freezing from Friday night through next Wednesday morning. Wind chills Sunday morning will range from just below zero in the northwest to near 5 above in the south. Wind chills will be just a few degrees warmer Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The area of light rain has developed as expected and is steadily pushing southeast. On the leading edge of the rain, there has been a tendency for northwest winds to gust 25-30kts briefly. This is likely due to evaporative cooling as the rain attempts to saturate the lower-levels of the atmosphere. Winds quickly calm back down and return to southwesterly direction within the rain band.

The real cold front is over central portions of Illinois and Missouri early this morning and will enter the area by 12Z. By late morning, northwest winds will be gusting 25-30 mph throughout the Quad State. The 00Z HREF indicates a near certainty of 25 mph gusts with very low chances of 30 mph or more. Along with the strong northwest winds, temperatures will likely be falling, especially through the afternoon. It will feel much cooler by the end of the day than it will to start the day. The HREF indicates that most of the region will see wind chills early Thursday around or slightly below 10 degrees. Only the Bootheel and Purchase Area will remain above 10 degrees.

In the wake of today's upper trough, warm advection will develop Thursday night ahead of another upper disturbance approaching from the northwest. The ECENS and GEFS indicate a 50% or greater chance of measurable precipitation over the Tri State area late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The chance is 80% or greater near the White River, or north of I-64. The NBM indicates that surface temperatures will be just below freezing and warming through sunrise, so even with a few tenths of snowfall expected, we are not expecting any travel impacts at this time.

With strong cyclonic flow aloft and embedded impulses expected to impact the Quad State Friday afternoon through Saturday, much of the region is likely to see a few periods of light snow. The ensembles indicate there is a 50% or better chance of seeing some measurable precipitation over all but the far southern portions of the region in this period. With the cold air expected to be in place, we will have to keep a close eye on the potential for some minor travel impacts.

As for the cold air this weekend and beyond, there is a 90% chance that the Evansville Tri State will remain below freezing from Friday night through Wednesday morning. The ensembles indicate that even southern/southwestern portions of the region have 50% or better chance of staying below freezing through the weekend. The wind chill forecast has come up a bit, with somewhat weaker winds expected. The coldest chills will be a degree or two below zero in the Perryville MO to Mt Vernon IL areas Sunday morning. Even in the south wind chills are expected to be no more than 5 degrees above zero. Monday morning wind chills will range from near zero in the northeast to around 10 in the Ozark Foothills.

With the upper trough weakening, temperatures should trend warmer through the first half of next week. The entire region should be above freezing next Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A band of VFR rain may linger for an hour or two at KOWB, otherwise, an area of MVFR ceilings is expected to pass across the three northern sites this morning. MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at KPAH and KCGI, but confidence is too low to mention it in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, northwest winds are expected to increase this morning and gust 20-30kts through the afternoon. The gustiness may linger into the evening, before the winds finally settle down to 10kts or less overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.