textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, decreasing overnight. A low end threat for a few severe storms (5% chance) is in place through this evening mainly for the south half of the region for some damaging wind potential.

- A somewhat unsettled pattern continues Friday and Saturday with a 40-50% chance for scattered showers and storms. The potential may be confined to west Kentucky and southwest Indiana on Saturday.

- After slightly cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) the next couple of days highs return back to 90 degrees Sunday through mid next week. There is certainly no sign of Fall weather in the next 7 days at least.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A weak frontal boundary is draped across the region today. The persistent showers that have been ongoing across the north half of the region are finally beginning to shrivel up. Meanwhile, isolated convection has developed mainly across west Kentucky where the highest instability is. A shortwave aloft to our west will slowly pivot eastward and provide additional lift by this evening for more widespread showers and storms to develop. The environment in place is certainly capable of at least a few severe storms with deep layer shear of 30-35 kts and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 j/kg. Mid level lapse rates are poor and freezing levels are high, so damaging winds should be the primary concern with any of the stronger storms. Coverage of storms is anticipated to increase as we get into the early evening timeframe. The window of concern for severe storms may continue into mid or late evening (03-04z) before subsiding.

A mid level disturbance will slowly shift eastward across the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday, providing a focus for at least scattered showers and storms each day. Looks like the threat may be more confined to just west Kentucky and possibly southwest Indiana on Saturday. Shear and instability are weaker so not expecting any severe storms the next couple of days.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region Sunday and remains in place through mid next week. 90 degree temperatures are likely (60-80% chance via the LREF) across the southwest half of the area on Sunday and the entire area Monday through Wednesday. Perhaps we can finally get some cooler weather by the later next week or the weekend of September 19-20. Guidance has been waffling back and forth whether to bring a true shot of cooler air (highs in the 70s) or just bring us closer to normal in the low to mid 80s by that time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Convection should blossom over southeast Missouri this evening and spread eastward across west Kentucky and far southern Illinois, continuing into the overnight before waning in intensity by 08-09z. -SHRA may continue until daybreak across parts of west Kentucky including KPAH. Restrictions to vsby and cigs are expected, especially in the heavier activity. Guidance continues to suggest a low stratus and/or lower vsby reductions by early Friday morning. Have lower confidence we will see IFR or lower vsbys, but confidence is higher for the IFR or even LIFR stratus deck to develop. Conditions will be slow to improve through the day on Friday, likely staying MVFR until early or mid afternoon. Additional scattered convection is possible on Friday, with the best chance at KPAH/KOWB in the later afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.