textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across parts of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky. No severe weather is expected.

- The combination of breezy north winds and relative humidity values of 20-25% will lead to an elevated fire weather risk on Wednesday afternoon.

- Warmer and more humid conditions are expected Friday through next weekend, with a small daily chance (15-30%) of pop up showers and thunderstorms. Most areas will remain dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Quiet and seasonably warm conditions are expected today through Tuesday as the region remains in a dry NW synoptic flow pattern associated with deeper H5 troughing over the northeast CONUS. Tuesday into Wednesday, surface low pressure will develop over the southern Canadian Prairie provinces and move SE across the Great Lakes. A weak and moisture-starved cold front associated with this system will move into the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, bringing our next chance of precipitation.

Right now, given the lack of moisture and forcing, shower and thunderstorm chances will be confined to just the 20-40% range across the northern and eastern parts of the forecast area (mainly southern IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY). QPF amounts look slim to none, with most areas that do see rain only receiving a tenth of an inch or less. On Wednesday, while temperatures will remain fairly steady near normal values, much drier air will filter into the region. Latest NBM deterministic guidance shows RH values falling to 20-25% across much of the area, with steady N winds around 10-15 mph. Given the ongoing drought conditions, will continue to message the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through next weekend will see the persist H5 ridging over the western CONUS shift eastward towards the Midwest. This will bring a warming trend in both temperature and dew point values. Temperatures will warm from the lower to middle 70s for highs on Thursday to lower to middle 80s on Friday. By this weekend highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most spots. Dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s will give the air a touch of noticeable humidity.

By this weekend, the ridging will begin to shift east of the area, and will be replaced by a more active southwest synoptic flow pattern. Right now, there does not appear to be trigger for widespread showers and thunderstorms, but the warmer and more humidity airmass will support daily chances (15-30%) of pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms. It will not be a washout by any means, and most of the area will be dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The TAFs are VFR. As high pressure becomes centered over the region, light N to NW winds around 4-8 kts will become calm or light and variable overnight. As the high pressure moves east of the region, winds will shift to the SW after 15z, around 4-8 kts. Skies will be mostly clear.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.