textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- An Extreme Heat Warning continues one final day today with Heat Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.

- Storm chances, including strong storm chances, are best with frontal passages Sunday night into Monday and Wednesday night into Thursday. Both frontal passages bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity after they clear out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Saturday was another day of solid HI's topping out in the 105-110 degree range, adding to our prolonged duration extreme heat. There were isolated higher totals up to 113 degrees, very similar to Friday. This was on target and will be so yet again today with very similar conditions to the past 2 days. Heat headlines will thus remain in effect thru what will hopefully be its final day today.

What changes after that is a noisier pattern manifest from falling heights as the ridge shows some breaks and ultimately, a couple frontal approaches and passages. The first such will be tonight into Monday, and there is a widespread swath of Marginal/Slight Risk severe with its presence, extending its entire latitudinal bounds from MO-VA. Temperatures and dew points fall off after passage, but may not quite or fully enough to totally preclude another heat headline in our south for Monday. The dew point drop off stalls a little down there in its decreasing wax, as upper 70s still hover on our southern borders in the late PM, before dropping off in the evening. Fortunately, high temps do cool back toward climo near 90F. As a result, at least at this writing, we're not prepared to extend, but it will be something to focus upon in the next 24 hours as peak HI's along our southern border flirt with Advisory criteria.

Another system takes shape by mid week, and it is messier in the models with its resolution, but for all practical purposes, it makes incoming approach Wednesday with passage Wednesday night into Thursday. Pops will spike during this time frame and a sharper punch of cooler/drier air is anticipated when its passage is completed. While no severe storms are highlighted now, we suspect this may change as the pattern metamorphosis occurs and the mid week nears. On the plus side is the fruit that'll bear, as we're looking at dew points returning to the 60s by week's end, with Thursday-Friday highs solidly in the mid-upper 80s; a spectacular end to the week weather-wise, particularly in comparison to the prior week of extreme heat. We'll need to enjoy it while we can as both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks return an Above normal temperature signal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Convection is the primary flight hazard through the next 12 hours. There is a complex east of Quincy, IL that could become a factor at MVN and vicinity by 21z if it continues tracking that direction. There are also some towering cumulus towers over south central Missouri that seem to be highlighting an area where the convective temperature is being reached. Highlighted with prob30s the timing where the highly conditional convection is most likely. Wind will be a concern with any thunderstorms today.

Winds will be fairly light and a front moves in from the northwest around daybreak shifting the direction to the north/northwest at 6-10kts persisting through the rest of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.