textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures with highs nearing 90 degrees are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by more seasonable temperatures on Friday to end the week.

- Rain showers build in from the west Thursday night and peak at a 80-90% chance on Friday when a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. There is a 50-70% chance of lingering showers on Saturday before drier conditions return through early next week.

- Below normal temperatures with highs in the lower 70s make a return over the weekend into early next week with a 20-40% chance of lows dipping into the 40s next Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A ridge of high pressure is in control over the Lower Ohio Valley allowing for unseasonably warm conditions. Given WAA aloft at 850 mb and robust mixing in the boundary layer, have bumped up highs a few degrees into the mid 80s today as it is likely temps will continue to overachieve. The NBM has really struggled with the dry air in the column that will also result in much lower dewpoints mixing down into the 40s. Minimum relative humidity values will once again reach 25-30%, with similar values expected across the east Wednesday afternoon. Although there will be an increase in southerly winds due to tighter pressure gradient with sfc high pressure building more east, moisture recovery will be slow to occur. Dewpoints eventually return to the 60s and even lower 70s for the latter half of the week.

In the wake of a cold front on Friday, our warm up will peak on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures near 90 degrees for what will likely be the final time for this year. NBM continues to trend warmer and is more in line with the GFS/ECMWF with the cold front arriving later. PoPs now peak at a 80-90% chance on Friday when the southern stream energy transitions into a elongated wave across the FA. Instability remains very meager, so we are only looking at transient rumbles of thunder at most. There is a 50-70% chance of showers lingering into Saturday as it will not be until Saturday night into Sunday when northern stream energy ejects downstream from the Dakotas and pushes the disturbance more eastward. Total rainfall on the NBM continues to trend downward with only a 40-50% probability of exceeding one inch. Due to intervals of light to moderate rain, widespread flooding issues are unlikely.

The weekend into early next week will certainly feel more likely fall again as a 1030 mb sfc high pressure over the northern Plains ushers in much cooler and drier air. High temperatures will trend into the lower 70s with a 20-40% chance of lows dipping into the 40s next Monday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals with an increase in high-level clouds tonight. Winds will remain elevated enough to inhibit fog development early Wednesday morning due to dry air present in the column. The pressure gradient tightens on Wednesday, causing south winds to increase to 6-11 kts by midday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.