textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwest winds combined with low humidity (RH of 20-30%) will produce elevated fire danger this afternoon.

- After one more seasonable day with low humidity on Thursday, temperatures warm above normal Friday through at least Tuesday. Humidity levels will also feel more like summer with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. A few 90 degree readings are possible early next week, with Monday seeming to offer the highest likelihood (30-50% chance).

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to mainly the northern half of the area Friday into Saturday.

- More widespread chances (50-70%) for showers and storms are slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. The probability to receive at least 1" of rain is around 50-60% through next Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The upper level pattern today features upper troughing across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with ridging over the Rockies. The trough will push east through Friday, and the ridge to our west will push east towards the Mississippi Valley. Guidance does suggest it breaking down though as a wave moves across the far northern U.S. This places our area in more zonal flow Friday into Saturday. Thereafter, troughiness developing in the western U.S. will lead to a ridge building across the southeast U.S. early next week.

Weak disturbances aloft may trigger some convection to seep into our area Friday and again on Saturday. The northern half of our cwa is most favored for both of these rounds. Increasing southwesterly flow through the column early next week will induce a greater chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. While we may have some activity as early as Monday, it appears Tuesday and Wednesday may offer up the highest chances ahead of a trough ejecting across the central CONUS. This will induce a cold front to approach and make passage across our region. Looks like some decent rainfall during this time, at least enough to hopefully prevent drought conditions from worsening. There is currently around a 50-60% chance at receiving at least 1" of rain through next Wednesday night, but only around a 15-25% chance at 2" or greater.

Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear rather low through the period, with the primary corridor with the best parameter space remaining off to our north and west. SPC and CSU-MLP probabilities both suggest this, keeping the 15% probs outside of our cwa. However, with increasing amounts of low level moisture and an uptick in instability, it's quite possible at least a marginal risk is introduced at some point.

Temperatures remain seasonable tomorrow before warming into the 80s Friday through the weekend. The 25th percentile of NBM is closer to the 75th percentile of LREF guidance for Max Temps Saturday through Monday. The highest probability of hitting 90 appears to be Monday, but again NBM is much higher (60-90% chance) compared to LREF (30- 50% chance). Either way though, it will feel more like summer even if we are several degrees cooler compared to what the NBM is suggesting. The spread amongst solutions is greater on Tuesday, with roughly a 10 degree range from the 25th-75th percentile for Max Temps, largely due to timing of the frontal boundary and associated convection/clouds. The current forecast from the NBM is on the higher end of possible outcomes, suggesting 85-90. The lower end would be more in the 75-80 range. Similar scenario on Wednesday with roughly a 10 degree spread between 25th and 75th percent, although at least 5 degrees cooler for both. With widespread clouds and potential for additional precip, Wednesday certainly looks cooler, but whether that means highs in the low to mid 70s or lower 80s is the question. The timing of the frontal passage will also be key in determining which pans out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions through this TAF cycle with primarily SKC. May have FEW to brief SCT cu sink south into northern terminals this afternoon. Northwest winds are sustained 10-15 kts today with gusts in the 18-23 kt range. Winds will slacken this evening, eventually becoming calm overnight and remain light and variable tomorrow.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.