textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Can't rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle this morning mainly across southern IL and southwest IN, and then possibly across west KY later this evening. Impacts (if any) look to primarily be confined to a narrow window where rain may fall on sub-freezing surfaces amid above-freezing temperatures.

- After a brief cool down Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures are trending warmer for Friday into the weekend, with readings likely to be closer to normal. Normal highs are in the mid 40s and normal lows are in the upper 20s.

- There is an increasing signal for warmer than normal temperatures next week, with latest trends suggesting at least a 50% chance at temperatures reaching 60 degrees by Feb 11-12!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A disturbance aloft across the MO Valley will slide southeastward into the Ohio Valley today. Meanwhile, another weak ripple associated with a southern stream system over TX will push eastward into the TN valley. This will spin up a weak surface low that will move east near the KY/TN line today. Glancing at the latest 700mb RH's indicate the deeper saturation remains primarily south and northeast of our region. So while some light precip may try to generate this morning into the afternoon across the PAH cwa, it looks like the majority of measurable QPF will be more to our east and south. However, there is a brief window this morning where we could see a little bit of freezing drizzle, probably from like 8 to 11 AM and mainly confined to parts of southern IL and southwest IN before temperatures rise above freezing. Another concern may be drizzle/light rain falling at like 34 degrees on still frozen ground, which could produce some slick spots. But by afternoon temps should warm into at least the mid 30s in the north and even 40s for many across west KY and southeast MO.

As the system departs the region this evening, there is a growing concern for drizzle especially across western KY. While temperatures initially will be above freezing, they may drop below by 02-03z. Soundings indicate plenty of saturation in the low levels, and it's possible drier air is slower to move in and we hold onto the drizzle until 06z or even a bit later across the KY Pennyrile region. Rather low confidence for now, but certainly something we will be monitoring.

The HREF only has a 20-30% chance of measurable QPF across southern IL and southeast MO with today's system, and while it is above 50% for southwest IN and west KY, the probability of 0.10" is rather low (less than 30% except near the KY/TN line) Meanwhile, there remains a low chance (30-40%) of measurable snow across parts of southwest IN (probabilities increase heading east of our cwa) but should only be a dusting to a few tenths at best.

Temperatures will struggle to reach freezing in many areas on Wednesday, and then jump about 3 to 5 degrees for Thursday. Brief ridging nudges into the area by Friday, resulting in a nice warm-up. NBM has a greater than 50% chance at hitting 50 degrees across much of southeast MO and the southern half of west KY. This weekend does look a bit cooler, but it has trended warmer compared to previous packages and now highs are actually fairly close to normal.

For those tired of the cold weather, we continue to see a growing trend for above normal temperatures next week. NBM has greater than an 80% chance at high temperatures exceeding 50 degrees by Feb 11-12 and even a 50-60% chance at reaching 60 degrees. The overall pattern favors predominate ridging across the center of the CONUS, so the above normal temperatures may be in place for an extended period through mid February (although could still have a couple brief cool downs behind possible frontal passages, just nothing compared to what we've witnessed the past 10 days).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Continued high clouds are likely to limit fog potential late tonight. MVFR cigs develop this morning with the arrival of light mixed precipitation. Some vsby drops are likely with precipitation and linger afterwards. IFR cigs are more likely in the afternoon hours in Western Kentucky and nearby portions of Southwest Indiana and Southeastern Illinois. VFR conditions returning in the north/west during the evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.