textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire Quad State from 11 PM CST tonight through 9 AM CST Monday.

- A major warmup is expected Monday through Thursday this week, with high temperatures climbing 15 to 25 degrees above normal. That would place high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60!

- The next chance (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast Thursday into Friday. A few strong storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire area for 11 PM CST tonight through 9 AM CST Monday.

Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud cover is limited to southern portions of the Lakes and Pennyrile regions of west Kentucky. The clearing line continues to progress southeast, and should clear the entire area by 10 PM. Winds are diminishing and are already light or calm in most locations.

The majority of guidance indicates widespread dense fog development. It should begin north and west of the Ohio River late this evening, and then spread southeast over west Kentucky overnight. The 9 AM expiration matches most guidance, but it would not be shocking if portions of the area need an extension, especially in the east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Skies will continue to clear off across the Quad State this afternoon into this evening as high pressure builds across the area. The combination of lingering low-level moisture, light winds and clear skies will allow for fog formation late this evening through Monday morning. A stout temperature inversion also gives increase confidence in fog formation tonight. In fact, HREF probabilities shows around a 60-80% chance of visibilities lower than a half mile over west KY/southwest IN and a 40-50% chance of the rest of the area (dense fog is a quarter mile). It seem likely that a dense fog advisory will be need later this evening and tonight.

Zonal to ridged flow will be in place across the central and eastern CONUS for Monday through Thursday as a deeper trough digs into the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be portioned over the southeast, allowing for warm/moist southerly flow to set up across the Quad State area. The combination of those features, will allow temperatures to warm well above normal for this time of year. In fact, it looks like many places will be pushing close to 20-25 degrees above normal for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 70s. In fact, ensemble guidance shows a 60-80 percent chance of seeing temperatures above 70 degrees for Wednesday and Thursday! Those temperatures would also challenge some longer standing records if they verify!

A weak frontal boundary will pass through the Quad State Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the biggest impact being an increase in cloud cover an a brief shift in wind direction. The greater concern and next best chance of showers and storms will be Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system tightens up across northern/northwestern MO. As the low drifts northeast into northern IL, a cold front is expected to swing through the Quad State Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There is still some question on timing and placement of the aformentioned features; however, there is enough consensus that showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for that time period, even lingering into Friday. Instability will likely increase ahead of the front and deep layer shear is forecast to increase to around 35-45kts. A strong upper-level jet will be overhead during the same time frame as well. This could lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the area; however, more details need to be ironed out with the system. At this point, it is worth noting that time period and worth keeping an eye on over the next few days!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The MVFR cloud deck continues to depart to the southeast leaving clear skies behind it as high pressure moves in overhead tonight. This will lead to light to calm winds at the sfc and with the recent moisture this is a good set up for dense fog formation overnight and into tomorrow morning. Visibilities may be reduced to around or less than a quarter of a mile at times. Fog should begin improving around 14Z. Some high cirrus should follow suit in the late morning through the afternoon.

Winds tomorrow will pick up out of the south at around 7-11 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM CST /midnight EST/ this evening to 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for KYZ001>022.