textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will return to the Quad State late tonight and Tuesday, and then continue through Wednesday. 40-60% chances of rain will continue through Friday night over southeast Missouri, while the remainder of the area begins to dry out.

- High temperatures over the next week will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is within a few degrees of normal. Low temperatures will run above normal in the middle 60s through the work week and then drop down closer to normal over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Showers this afternoon have been focused over the southern Pennyrile, but some isolated showers have been noted in the Owensboro and Marion Kentucky areas. Most of this activity will die off before sunset. In the meantime, a stray, brief thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the southern Pennyrile.

A weak upper storm system will push a warm front with plentiful showers and a few thunderstorms northward into/through the Quad State late tonight through Tuesday. The upper storm system will push east through the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will allow for continued widespread shower activity throughout the region Tuesday night and into Wednesday over the eastern half of the Quad State.

Precipitable water values will be 150-175% of normal, so there will be plenty of moisture around, but with very limited instability, no shear, and a lack of a stationary focusing mechanism, any heavy downpours will generally be isolated and short-lived. Any thunderstorms will be fairly isolated in the heat of the day Tuesday and Wednesday. Stormtotal QPF through the work week is now 0.25"-0.50" across the north, with 0.50-1.0" across the southern half of the region.

A stronger storm system will dive southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday night and that should push the surface front back to the south. There is some potential for it to hang up over southeast Missouri, but much of the region should be dry from Wednesday night through next weekend. The NBM is trending towards this evolution, but likely still has too much PoP across the region through Saturday. Behind the frontal passage, temperatures will drop a bit below normal both for highs and lows. Of course, this will not be much different from this weekend, but there will be considerably less humidity.

Let's get through Wednesday and hope we can dry out. It is nice to make that statement given how dry we have been for most of this year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Deteriorating conditions are expected tonight and into Tuesday. Confidence continues to remain high that MVFR ceilings will lift across the terminals overnight and continue until the afternoon. There is a possibility of IFR or lower conditions at times but confidence remains low. Scattered shower activity will lift north across the terminals late tonight and into Tuesday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.