textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- The hottest stretch of the season begins today with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees. A combination of the heat and humidity will cause daily heat index values to rise around 105 degrees at times through Thursday, followed by some relief on Friday.

- With the hot and humid airmass providing plenty of instability this afternoon a few storms could be strong to locally severe with winds to 60 mph the main threat.

- Another round of showers and storms arrives again on Thursday night and Friday ahead of a cold front. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and brief heavy rain as the main threats.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Storms are flaring up this afternoon, mainly across the southern portions of the forecast area, aided in part by a zone of convergence. Lightning activity is prolific with these storms, and PW values above 2.0 inch make for efficient rainmakers. Flooding issues are possible in any areas with training storms. Storms should continue to develop through the afternoon hours. MLCAPE values of 1500-2500J/kg will provide robust instability, though shear is a bit lacking at 20-25kts effective bulk shear. Generally pulse convection is expected for the afternoon hours but a few storms may produce damaging wind gusts. The eastern portions of the Quad State are in a slight risk of severe weather, while much of the rest of the Quad State is in a marginal risk. Muggy dew points in the mid to upper 70s, potentially reaching 80 in a few spots, and highs in the mid-80s to near 90, will lift heat index values to 100-105 in the southwest, with the higher values favored in SEMO and adjacent areas where a Heat Advisory remains through the afternoon.

Several models send an MCS southward into northeastern portions of the forecast area during the evening hours, which would lead to additional strong storms and heavy rain. As a result of the two rounds of storms, the highest QPF totals are located in the Evansville Tri-State area, though current activity in southern portions of SEMO has already well exceeded the trivial amounts in the NBM (adjustments were made to the forecast to account for ongoing storm activity). Caution is advised anywhere heavy rain is occurring.

Southerly to southwesterly flow remains through midweek with a brief resurgence of upper ridging Wednesday following the shortwave trough's exit, before upper flow becomes more zonal Thursday. Models are in fairly broad agreement on a cold front moving through Thursday night as low pressure moves across Northern Ontario; however, differences show up in terms of how much activity remains when the front arrives. An SPC slight risk Thursday in the far northwest covers the possibility of strong to severe storms which should decrease in potential as the front moves through. Brief drying is forecast Friday, with the potential for another round of showers and storms over the weekend.

Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 today rise to the lower 90s midweek, then return to the 80s Friday into the weekend. Lows in the mid-70s through midweek lower to the 60s afterwards. Heat indices of 100-105 are possible today through Thursday. Portions of SEMO are in level 3-Major Heat Risk today while the rest of the Quad State is in level 2-Moderate. Most of the Quad State rises to level 3-Major for Wednesday-Thursday. Additional heat products may need to be issued.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A few thunderstorms may approach the EVV/OWB terminals later this evening and overnight; however, the chances are low enough to keep the PROB30 group. In fact, a good portion of the latest guidance keeps the thunderstorm activity to the northwest of the TAF sites. The rest of the area is expected to see mainly dry conditions. Overall VFR conditions are expected outside of any brief reduction from thunderstorm activity this evening/tonight. Good flying conditions are expected for the day Wednesday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080-084-088- 092-093. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>004. Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for KYZ014>022.