textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs remain 10-12 degrees above normal through tomorrow.

- A few showers or thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front tomorrow afternoon. There is a very small risk for a few severe storms with damaging wind the main concern.

- A cold front will advance Wednesday night, dropping temperatures significantly through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A couple shortwaves aloft combine into a longwave trof tomorrow and Thursday. A sfc low and strong cold front swing through the region from the northwest tomorrow. Models continue to depict moisture advecting in from central TX, keeping our dewpoints right around 57- 58 degrees, which continues to be consistent with previous forecasts. Isolated to scattered pre-frontal showers/storms are still possible mainly over southwest IN, and the KY Pennyrile Wednesday afternoon. In an environment with about 400-600 J/kg of MLCAPE and about 40 kts of bulk shear, the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) makes sense, mainly for a damaging wind threat but also a VERY conditional low-end tornado threat (will heavily depend on over achieving low level moisture and instability). Given the recent model consistency, would say that there is less than a 10% chance of moisture over performing.

Much colder air moves in behind the front to finish out the week. This brings back chilly fall temperatures with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees on Friday. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front on Thursday which will make the highs in the 50s feel chillier. Our first hard freeze (temperatures 28 degrees or less) could happen Friday night and Saturday night. Temperatures then begin to moderate slightly on Sunday with sfc ridging stemming from sfc high pressure over the western Great Lakes. Another shortwave aloft approaches and passes through on Monday, though any convection looks to remain south of us.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 948 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The only change for the 06Z TAFs was to add a Prob30 for TSRA at KEVV and KOWB in the 21-01Z window based on the 00Z RRFS. Otherwise, shallow fog could develop at KMVN at anytime since they are already saturated, and 20-25kts gusts will be possible ahead of and behind the front. The gustiness will likely continue behind the front through much of the evening, with the exception of the wind sink at KMVN.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.