textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will gradually end from northwest to southeast. A few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado remain possible. Gusty southwest winds of 35 to 50 mph will gradually decrease by later afternoon into the evening.

- A brief cooldown will arrive behind the cold front for tonight into Thursday. Lows will drop to near freezing tonight with highs only in the 50s for Thursday. More seasonal temperatures in the 60s and 70s are anticipated for Friday through the weekend. - A strong cold front will sweep through the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely with it. While a few strong to severe storms may be possible, confidence is low at this time.

- Cold temperatures are expected to start the new week. Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s and lows in the 20s! The chance of exceeding 45 degrees Monday is less than 30% over the entire region. There is a 40-60% chance lows dip below 20 degrees across the northern half of the region Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

We have struggled to destabilize much through late morning due to plenty of clouds remaining in place as result of early morning convection and a complex passing by to our south. The complex to our south has even resulted in a wake low sweeping across the southern third of the area with gradient wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph occurring. This is why we ended up expanding the Wind Advisory to cover most of the area through mid afternoon.

Showers and a few storms have rapidly blossomed ahead of the frontal boundary to our north. This activity will sink south through our cwa from midday into the afternoon. The atmosphere isn't overly unstable though, so severe prospects with this activity are rather low. Certainly may still have a few storms produce damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado, so something to still closely monitor as we progress through the afternoon. This threat should exit our southeastern cwa by 21z or so.

Temperatures will be falling through the afternoon, with 5 PM readings likely only in the upper 40s to low 50s across most of the cwa. Overnight readings will fall well down into the 30s. The northwest third of the area has a decent chance (40-60%) to fall to freezing or slightly below. Despite plenty of sunshine, highs on Thursday will only reach the low to mid 50s. We will moderate quickly back into the 60s Friday and Saturday, with 70s anticipated on Sunday ahead of our next cold front.

After a dry period Thursday through Saturday, showers and a few storms will move back into the region on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep through the region during the afternoon and evening. The probability of achieving 500 j/kg of CAPE is quite low (less than 20%) as depicted by the latest LREF and NBM data. Seems the low level moisture return isn't near as impressive ahead of that front compared to our current situation as dew points may only reach the upper 50s. Plenty of wind shear though, so could be a classic low cape-high shear scenario for our cwa. Given the magnitude of the cold front could be a strongly forced line of convection that may produce some strong to severe storms along it. The CSU-MLP has 5% severe probs over most of our area and even a 15% in part of the Pennyrile of west Kentucky. So while confidence is still low at this time, it's something to monitor. Most of the precipitation likely will exit the region before the really cold air arrives, but can't rule out a little changeover to snow before it completely moves out. The NBM does generate about a 20-30% chance of a receiving a light dusting with it.

A significant cool down is likely early next week. Guidance has remained pretty consistent showing temperatures roughly 15 to 20 degrees below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. The northern half of the region has a 50-70% chance that highs remain in the 30s on Monday. There is also a 40-60% probability of low temperatures falling below 20 degrees across the north half of area Monday night. Wind chills will likely be in the teens in many areas Monday and Tuesday mornings. Fortunately the cold snap looks short-lived as a return to near normal temperatures returns by mid week and we may even go above normal by late next week again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Complex TAF issuance this morning as convection is passing through the northern TAF sites. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph we be possible with the strongest storms at the beginning of the TAF issuance. Another line of storms will be possible later this morning into this afternoon as a cold front passes through the area. Placed a tempo for TSRA during the most likely timing of the frontal passage. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds can also be expected outside of any thunderstorm activity. Winds will shift to the west then northwest later this afternoon and tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ083-085>094. MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ087-109>112- 114. IN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ this afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ001>022.