textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue with heat indices peaking Saturday through Tuesday in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the daytime hours will be 30% to 60% across the entire area Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, higher chances of 50% to 80% will be east of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark Foothills.

- 20-40% chances of showers and storms can be expected Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Warm and humid conditions will persist through the end of the week and through the weekend into early next week. Persistent southerly flow will result in near to a little above normal temperatures and a little higher humidity over the weekend into Tuesday, and through this period we will see afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Models indicate the heat and humidity will improve Wednesday.

A weak surface low to our southwest will help keep chances of showers and storms across southeast Missouri and most of west Kentucky and southern Illinois into this evening. Mainly heat of the day chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday across our entire region as the weak surface low moves northeast. On Friday, and upper level trof will extend through the Great Lakes region into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, increasing chances to 50-80% east of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. Isolated showers and storms will remain possible Friday night, then daytime heating will again ramp up the chances on Saturday to 50-70% in southwest Indiana and west Kentucky, with 20-40% chances in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Due to the scattered nature of convection, average precipitation totals will be less than half an inch, but individual storms may produce brief heavy rain, resulting in localized higher amounts. The upper trof will move farther east by late in the weekend, so Sunday afternoon chances will max out in the 20-40% range. Beyond Sunday, minimal chances are expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Primary concern overnight will be fog development, particularly across southeast MO and far southern IL where the heaviest rain fell today. IFR or lower cloud bases may also develop for a short period early morning, particularly around KCGI and KPAH. Additional scattered showers and storms are likely to develop by midday through the afternoon on Thursday, and this time could impact the northeastern terminals as well. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with any convection.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.