textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will be breezy today through Tuesday with gusts around 20-30 mph. There is a Red Flag Warning in effect until 7 PM tonight for afternoon RHs around 25% and winds greater than 15 mph.

- Beneficial rain is expected mid-late week through the weekend. There is generally a 50-80% chance of greater than 2" by Sunday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Deep mixing with a tight pressure gradient today is leading to breezy, southerly winds with a greater than 50% chance for gusts over 25 mph and a 30-50% chance for gusts over 30 mph mainly over west KY. There is a Red Flag Warning in effect for southwest IL and portions of southeast MO until 7 PM due to the elevated fire danger from afternoon RHs around 25% and winds gusting over 15 mph. A warming trend starts today and goes through Tuesday with highs today in the 70s. Breezy/windy conditions continue through Tuesday. There is a 40-70% chance of gusts of 35+ mph according to the LREF. Tuesday will also be the warmest day with a greater than 80% chance of highs in the 80s.

Models have slowed down in the progression of the approaching cold front and subsequent rain that was expected. There is still some discrepancy on frontal placement with the Euro and its ensemble bringing it to our doorstep as soon as Tuesday night but holds it there till Wednesday evening when it slides half way through the CWA then lifts back north as a warm front overnight into Thursday morning. The GFS and its ensemble bring the front close to our doorstep by Wednesday morning but then stall it out there over central MO and central IL. In both of these scenarios NBM PoPs are likely too high for Wednesday and we will be drier than forecast. Thursday into Friday looks a little better as the sfc low tracks through MO and IL.

Saturday looks to bring the next system with an upper closed low over the Northern Plains Friday night. On Saturday the associated sfc low moves through the upper Midwest and drags a cold front through the area. This brings 40-60% chance of showers and storms (this might increase in the coming days) Saturday into Sunday morning. It is still too early to determine the severe risk for Saturday but overall the set up and forcing mechanisms look to be more supportive. As for beneficial rainfall there is a 50-80% chance of seeing over 2" by Sunday evening. Temperatures behind the cold front will be back to around normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A plume of moisture will advect northward from the Gulf Coast overnight, bringing lower VFR cigs to the area from 12-16z. These cloud bases will gradually rise and with decreasing coverage after 17-20z. Winds will be S overnight around 7-12 kts, and will become more SW after 12-15z and increase. Sustained wind speeds will be 12-17 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts through the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-076- 080>082-084>086-088-089-092. MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086- 087-100-109>111. IN...None. KY...None.