textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm remains on track to impact the entire region late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Heavy snowfall mixed with sleet and freezing rain will make travel nearly impossible with an 85+% chance of exceeding winter storm warning criteria across the entire quad-state. Probabilities are now 90+% for exceeding 8 inches of snow along an axis between Popular Bluff and Evansville. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect.

- A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain over far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky near the Tennessee border will result in a sharp gradient with reduced snowfall totals. There is a 30-60% chance of ice accretion exceeding a tenth of an inch, which would fall on top of the preceding snow/sleet.

- Prolonged sub-freezing temperatures and intervals of dangerous cold wind chills begins this evening and will continue through all of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the first round of dangerous wind chills that covers this evening through midday Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Multiple major weather concerns remain with the weekend winter storm providing significant snowfall accumulation, along with mixing of sleet and possibly freezing rain in the southeast. Road conditions will be treacherous (a Winter Storm Warning covers the entire Quad State), and extremely cold conditions are forecast for the weekend and entire week ahead. Make final preparations today ahead of this system.

Much colder and drier air has moved into the Quad State following a cold frontal passage. A strong high pressure system centered over Saskatchewan, but stretched across the Dakotas, is now funneling a steady stream of Arctic air. With breezy northeasterly winds continuing through the night between this high and low pressure near the Rio Grande, will result in wind chills between -1 and -12 tonight, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire coverage area.

A major winter storm will strike the Quad State region this weekend with potential for generational to record snowfall totals, along with some mixing of sleet and freezing rain in the southeastern half of the Quad State. The northern branch of the jet stream is stretched west to east across the Midwest to the Metropolitan region, placing the Quad State in the right entrance region. Meanwhile, low pressure is organizing in south Texas, eventually tracking northeastward through Tennessee Sunday. Warm and moist advection around 700mb will provide a warm nose over very dry and cold initial surface conditions. Precipitation enters SEMO late tonight, with measurable snow reaching the Mississippi River around sunrise. Dry surface levels, with dew points of -10 to -15 across much of SEMO, will take a while to moisten and can limit early accumulation. During the day, the surface layer moistens and snowfall picks up in earnest, first in SEMO and then later in the morning further northeast. The warm nose builds in later in the day between 700-850mb, but grand ensemble member soundings show nearly no members, even at southeastern sites, warming above freezing before 6pm. As such, sleet potential during the day Saturday is relegated to a slight chance in far southeastern portions (from around New Madrid to Hopkinsville). Snowfall totals during the day from the first round add up to around 3-6 inches with lower totals in the far north and in the far southeast (the latter due to some potential sleet mixing and lower SLRs).

Guidance is in fairly strong agreement in showing a break in precipitation (especially in northwestern portions of the Quad State) Saturday evening. Models show a greater proportion of ensemble members rising above 0C aloft in southeastern portions of the Quad State during the evening and overnight hours. However, the share of ensemble members showing freezing rain has dropped off substantially, with snow/sleet becoming more likely as the Bootheel to Pennyrile mix overnight.

The second wave late Saturday through Sunday comes from the northeastward advancement of the Texas low pressure system with the Quad State near the left-exit of southern jet as it advances towards the right-entrance of the Midwestern stream, providing greater lift. Sleet and freezing rain potential pushes further north Sunday with round two. The heavier snowfall totals should set up in the northern half of the Quad State with 5-7 inches of snow. Sleet mixing advances north to a line from approximately Doniphan to the Ohio River where there's pretty strong model agreement on at least brief sleet mixing. The NAM continues to be most aggressive with warm nose warming and sleet production. Freezing rain is possible in places such as Fort Campbell, KY, with limited northward. On the back end of the system later in the day Sunday, temperatures cool at the surface and aloft, leading to a transition back from sleet to snow at the end of the event.

To sum up the winter storm, for areas north/west of a line from the Ohio River extended through Southeast Missouri, the precipitation should be snow with very limited sleet mixing potential (mainly Ohio River), with snowfall totals of 8-13 inches. Some locations in the far northwest like Mount Vernon, IL could see a bit less snow if the heavy snow band sets up further southeast. A line from around Poplar Bluff through Paducah to Owensboro is likely to see around 6-11 inches of snow with some mixing of sleet Saturday night into Sunday keeping totals slightly lower. Further southeast from the Missouri Bootheel to Greenville, and especially in Hopkinsville/Fort Campbell, greater mixing of sleet (sleet on top of snow) will keep snow totals more in the 4-8 inch range, There is potential for freezing rain on top which, if it lines up with higher end ensemble members, could even produce some tree and powerline damage.

Extremely cold conditions follow this winter storm, with the snowpack providing radiational cooling (which may be underestimated in some models). Saturday night wind chills of 5 below to 5 above are slightly above cold weather advisory criteria. Northwesterly winds Sunday night drive lows to the lower single digits to near 0 and early Monday wind chills around Extreme Cold Warning criteria. While winds shift to southwesterly Monday night, similarly low wind chills are possible early Tuesday morning. Blended in NBM50th percentile to lower the deterministic NBM initialization some for high temperatures. Strong troughing continues through the rest of the week in the eastern half of the country, with a reinforcing cold frontal passage Wednesday night as an upper low moves through the Great Lakes. For precip locally, only a slight chance of snow in the northeast Wednesday evening comes from this, with otherwise dry conditions through the week. The Ozarks may barely reach freezing Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise temperatures remain below freezing the entirety of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Conditions will deteriorate as snow spreads northeast across the region, generally after 12Z at the TAF sites. The heaviest snow will be in the afternoon when LIFR visibilities will be possible. North winds will be strongest this evening when 15-25kts gusts are expected in most locations. The gustiness will gradually subside through the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST Saturday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST Saturday for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST /2 PM EST/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. Winter Storm Warning from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM CST Saturday for KYZ001>022. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.