textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below normal temperatures are forecast for this weekend, with wrap-around drizzle or light showers along with a small chance of an afternoon storm Sunday.

- Lingering afternoon chances of showers continue early next week in the east.

- Warmer conditions are forecast late week with highs returning to around 90 by Friday with heat indices in the low 100s.

UPDATE

Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A cold front has moved through, resulting in well below normal temperatures today with highs near or below 80 for the northwestern half of the Quad State, near cold maximum records. Storms have not fired in the eastern portions of the coverage area, and at this point are not expected to. Wrap-around drizzle or light rain showers are occurring as a cutoff low pressure center drifts eastward across Central Illinois. Light precipitation coverage will be highest in the northeast through tomorrow. A cold air funnel might be possible during the afternoon today or tomorrow, but will likely require some degree of ambition from these showers.

Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 are forecast areawide Sunday, again near record low maximums, with drizzle to light showers along with lingering low cloud ceilings keeping things dreary. A few lightning flashes might be possible tomorrow afternoon in an environment with limited CAPE and shear, though thunder chances were lowered compared to the initialization. The cutoff low very slowly continues its eastward drift through Central into Eastern Kentucky early next week. PoPs lower and become more diurnally driven early next week. Some model variation in positioning of the low as it drifts early next week has kept thunder in the forecast but, should the system progress towards Eastern Kentucky, that aspect will likely be removed narrowed if not completely removed.

Dry conditions are forecast Wednesday with light winds. Clearing along with the cessation of northerly flow will allow for temperatures to begin climbing, continuing to warm later in the week as southerly flow returns. A cold front reaches the Great Lakes region from the Northern Plains Thursday, but high pressure becomes entrenched in the southeast and the associated cold front may not reach the Quad State. Models are divided as to whether showers and storms are able to develop late week, with slight chance-chance PoPs included at this time. Increased moisture along with highs reaching 90 results in 100-105 degree heat indices Friday to Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

As the primary cyclone rotates across the Ohio Valley this forecast package, expect a potpourri of low clouds/cigs with restrictions to IFR, even LIFR potentially, as well as scattered pockets of light pcpn restricting vsbys to MVFR, perhaps IFR at times. Some gradual/marginal improvement/lifting of bases may occur during the planning phase hours of the forecast, but showers/temporary lowering of bases/vsbys will still be possible.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.