textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue with heat indices peaking Saturday through Tuesday in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the daytime hours will be 30% to 60% across the entire area Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, higher chances of 50% to 80% will be east of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark Foothills.

- 20-40% chances of showers and storms can be expected Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Warm and humid conditions will persist through the end of the week and through the weekend into early next week. Persistent southerly flow will result in near to a little above normal temperatures and a little higher humidity over the weekend into Tuesday, and through this period we will see afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Models indicate the heat and humidity will improve Wednesday.

A weak surface low to our southwest will help keep chances of showers and storms across southeast Missouri and most of west Kentucky and southern Illinois into this evening. Mainly heat of the day chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday across our entire region as the weak surface low moves northeast. On Friday, and upper level trof will extend through the Great Lakes region into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, increasing chances to 50-80% east of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. Isolated showers and storms will remain possible Friday night, then daytime heating will again ramp up the chances on Saturday to 50-70% in southwest Indiana and west Kentucky, with 20-40% chances in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. Due to the scattered nature of convection, average precipitation totals will be less than half an inch, but individual storms may produce brief heavy rain, resulting in localized higher amounts. The upper trof will move farther east by late in the weekend, so Sunday afternoon chances will max out in the 20-40% range. Beyond Sunday, minimal chances are expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered afternoon shra/tsra possible at mainly KCGI/KPAH. Any shra/tsra activity will likely accompanied by brief MVFR conditions. VFR conditions can expected most of the TAF period, except for MVFR fog possible between 08z-13z mainly at KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. Winds will be from east to southeast around 5kts, becoming light and variable to calm overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.