textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected this week. The warmest days are forecast to be Wednesday and Thursday, with a greater than 60% chance of exceeding 70 degrees for much of the region.

- The next chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast late Wednesday night into Thursday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures and a lingering small (10-30%) chance of rain are forecast through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Surface high pressure centered over eastern Kentucky is providing a fabulous day across the Quad State as plenty of sunshine is present after the morning dense fog burned off. The surface high will depart further to our east through tonight as low pressure develops to the Lee of the Rockies. This should maintain enough of a pressure gradient overnight to prevent widespread dense fog formation like this morning. However, some guidance is still hinting at some fog developing, with NBM probabilities highest across southeast MO. Looking at soundings, there seems to be a noticeable saturated layer right off the surface that develops which may end up being a low status layer late tonight into tomorrow morning. Whatever materializes may end up having an influence on high temperatures tomorrow as the HRRR/RAP/NAM all seem to want to keep us socked in with highs barely reaching the low/mid 50s. ECMWF/GFS/NBM isn't buying this though and suggests mid 60s. Decided to nudge temps down a few degrees from NBM due to this uncertainty.

While some uncertainty exists on Tuesday, there is higher confidence for well above normal temperatures to surge into the region Wednesday and Thursday. The probability of highs reaching 70 degrees is basically 60% or greater across much of our cwa and there's even a at least a 50% chance at exceeding 75 in the Ozark Foothills.

Our main system of concern this week is associated with a compact 500mb trough that sweeps from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Thursday into Thursday night. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to rapidly deepen as it pivots northeast from the Central Plains into Wisconsin by late Thursday night or Friday morning. This will drag a cold front through our region, with timing most likely during the evening and early overnight period. Model guidance continues to suggest WAA showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning and then perhaps a relative lull until additional convection may develop mid- late afternoon and into the evening. There is some potential the forcing this far south may not be robust enough to generate widespread convection. The 12z models seem to be suggesting the best chance for this may be across southern IL, southwest IN, and perhaps portions of west KY. Might end up being more of Wabash Valley and EVV Tri-state event and points further north. Still lot of time though to iron out the details and likely will have some fluctuations occurring.

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible given the environment in place ahead of the cold frontal passage Thursday night. The latest long range ensemble mean has shown some increase in our cape/shear space, now giving us a 50-60% chance of MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values over 60 kts during the afternoon and evening. Glancing at the low level moisture, the probability of dew points reaching the mid 50s are quite high (80- 100%) but chances of hitting 60 are rather low across much of the region (10-20%) except from the MO bootheel into the Jackson Purchase area of west KY where they are 40-60%. Certainly enough to generate some strong convection but perhaps not enough for things to get too carried away, at least the way it looks now. The machine learning guidance remains consistent with the latest SPC outlook as well which has our region in 15% severe probs.

For late week into the weekend, there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding another disturbance that may sweep eastward from the Southern Plains into the TN Valley. Ensembles suggest a high likelihood of measurable precipitation over our cwa this weekend while the heaviest remains further south. For now we have slight to low chance PoPs in place, but if ensemble guidance has any clue we will likely need to bump these up over the coming days. The overall pattern is cooler, with temperatures returning to slightly below normal during this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The morning dense fog has lifted across the region leaving behind mostly clear skies for today. SCT high cloud will stream in from the west this afternoon and thicken as we head into the night and tomorrow. Rather tricky aviation forecast tonight into Tuesday morning as there are hints at additional dense fog developing across parts of the region, but at the same time we may keep enough wind to largely prevent it. Glancing at soundings there may be a low stratus deck develop with plenty of low level moisture right off the surface which may lead to IFR or lower cigs. For now mainly went with SCT mention for the low stratus and TEMPOs for the lower vsbys for possible fog owing to the low confidence on which develops.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.