textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A shot of cold and very dry air will overspread the region by Sunday and linger through Monday. Monday will be the coolest day with lows in the teens (60-90% chance), wind chills in the single digits (70%-90% chance) and highs in the mid to upper 30s throughout the region.

- A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with above normal temperatures Wednesday through next Saturday.

- Much of the Quad State will see a period or two of sprinkles or flurries today. There is only a 20-30% chance of measurable precipitation, mainly over west Kentucky early this morning and again this afternoon.

- At least light rain is expected throughout the Quad State Wednesday night and Thursday. There is only a 20% chance of more than a half inch, mainly over west Kentucky.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A band of light rain with perhaps a tenth of an inch or more has developed from the Bootheel through southern portions of west Kentucky early this morning. Guidance is thoroughly unaware of this development with the exception of the latest HRRR, which has it dissipating/moving east of the area by daybreak.

A somewhat complex upper trough will approach the Quad State today and move overhead tonight. As it approaches, there is a 10-30% chance of measurable precipitation across the region, with the best chance in west Kentucky this afternoon. Most of the region will experience a few periods of sprinkles or flurries. Temperatures will remain above freezing throughout the area, but this morning it will be cool enough for flurries to potentially reach the ground over the northwest half of the region.

As tonight's upper trough passes east of the area, surface high pressure will surge through the region. The 00Z ECEPS indicates a near certainty of at least 30 mph gusts throughout the Quad State during the day Sunday. The chance of 40 mph gusts was nil, so no Wind Advisory is anticipated.

The strong northwest winds will usher in much colder and very dry air. The 00Z ensembles indicate that there is a 10-20% chance of wind chills dropping below 10F in the Mt Vernon IL area by daybreak Sunday. Wind chills Monday morning will be dangerously cold with a near certainty of readings in the single digits over the northern half of the Quad State. Over the southern half the chance is 70-80%. There are similar chances of low temperatures dropping below 20F Monday morning. It will be quite cold for those waiting on busses. Highs on Monday will span the 30s with only the Ozark Foothills reaching above 35F.

The flow aloft will finally relax on Tuesday, allowing strong southwest winds to develop throughout the region. This will result in a nice warming trend, but highs on Tuesday are still likely to remain a few degrees below normal. Of greater concern on Tuesday is the potential for near Red Flag criteria for winds and relative humidity. For now the NBM and 00Z ensembles keep winds more in the 10-15mph range, and minimum relative humidity in the 30-35% range. It will not be shocking to see the wind forecast trend up and RH down with time.

Temperatures and moisture will increase for Wednesday, when the NBM has high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the Tri State area to the middle 60s in the Ozark Foothills. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be somewhat lower, but still above normal.

There is agreement amongst the 00Z ensemble guidance that the entire Quad State will get wet in the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening time frame. What is not agreed upon at this time is when within that period it will rain and how much? The overwhelming trend, though, is for the greatest chances and amounts to be over west Kentucky, and the least chances and amounts to be over northwest portions of the Quad State. The ECEPS has the best chance of more than a half inch of rain at up to 40% near the TN border in west Kentucky. Overall, the AI version of the ensembles indicate lesser chances of rainfall, especially over the northwest. The ECMWF seems to be in favor with its Wednesday night into Thursday morning timing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 936 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Based on upstream obs and radar trends, have added PROB30 groups for -RA activity to PAH and CGI between 06-12z. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are expected, with SCT-BKN cloud bases generally between 4-8kft. Light N/NNE winds overnight between 3-6 kts will become NW after 15-18z between 6-12 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.