textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory continues today through Sunday, with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees.

- There is a 20-30% chance of showers and storms late this afternoon into this evening across mainly the northern half of the Quad State.

- A cooling trend will finally begin early next week with the passage of a cold front, with temperatures by mid week near to even a little below normal.

- The cold front will be accompanied by 40-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with 20-40% chances tapering off from northwest to southeast late Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Winds generally out of the west have picked up a little today, as temperatures quickly surged into the mid-90s, with highs projected to be in the upper 90s to near 100, challenging more record highs. However, convective initiation has begun in Perry County, MO and just north of Wabash County, IL. Storm development has begun sooner than most every model, with the more active FV3 the closest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue this afternoon through the evening, mainly in the northern half of the Quad State where a frontal boundary is positioned. Robust CAPE and PWs near the 95th percentile are present, but mid-level lapse rates are fairly low and shear is very limited. A few, probably sub-severe, decent wind gusts are possible with the strongest storms.

Winds calm overnight with storm activity waning. The boundary lifts northward tomorrow, reducing storm chances for the region this weekend. However, slight chance PoPs were introduced in the far northeast Saturday and far north Sunday during the afternoon hours to line up with the D2 and D3 marginal risk areas. Most likely, storm activity will be outside the CWA, but a slight shift southward could bring a storm or two to the area. Convective environment will generally be similar to today, with plenty of CAPE and moisture, but very limited shear. Highs again will challenge heat records, especially if dew points trend a little lower through the weekend.

A building high pressure system over Ontario helps push the frontal boundary southward through the Quad State as a cold front Sunday night into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday to Monday night, with a few stronger storms possible. Southeastern portions of the Quad State might still reach a triple digit heat index Monday before colder air moves in.

Afterwards, an upper low located in NorCal/Oregon stalls out over the Midwest, helping to keep northerly flow across the Quad State and bringing temperatures down to near normal with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows in the upper 50s to near 60. There is around a 40-70% chance (higher in the north, lower in the south) of highs below 80 each day from Tuesday through Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Scattered convection continues invof MVN to EVV and just north of OWB. Outflow boundaries are abundant and will cause some wind variability out of the north although gusts are generally less than 15-20 kts. Stronger convection could cause stronger gusts but the slow moving activity may remain just outside terminal areas until starting to diminish after sunset.

VFR conditions are then the most likely outcome through the remainder of the TAF period with a chance of isolated storms in the late afternoon in EVV/MVN area, but chances are too low (10-20%) for a TAF mention at the moment.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.