textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Several chances for rain are in the forecast into next week. The greatest chances (up to 60%) will be this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday. Localized flash flooding will be a concern this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening for most of the region. Daily high temperatures trend more into the lower 90s through early next week with heat index values between 100-105 degrees. The hottest day will be Tuesday with heat index readings as high as 110 degrees.

- Northerly flow may briefly cause moderate unhealthy air quality conditions across the far north today while the latter half of next week may pose a more impactful risk due to the ongoing Ontario wildfire smoke.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The Quad State region will sit on the inflection point between troughing to the east and ridging to the west (across the Rockies). This will allow for northwest flow into the region aloft. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop each afternoon during peak heating. The convection will be a bit more focused this afternoon and evening as a frontal remains nearly stationary across the region. The main concern this afternoon will be the very heavy rainfall rates on already saturated soils. PWAT values are on the order of 2-2.4 inches this afternoon with dewpoints pushing near 80degrees, again pointing at that heavy rainfall/flooding potential. The lack of wind shear and the more widespread nature of the convection should limit any severe potential through this evening.

A much stronger cold front will sag south through the area on Tuesday, bringing storms, but some relief from the heat/humidity. Instability is forecast to be 2000-3000 J/kg with deep layer shear increasing to around 20-30 kts, especially across southern IL into southwest IN. The combination of increased wind speeds aloft and the instability, will lead to another round of strong to severe storms. Currently, the greatest wind shear is expected to remain to the northeast of the area, but it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on over the next few days. In fact, southwest IN is already highlighted with a slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday with a marginal draped to the southwest of that area. At an early glance, damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats.

Outside of any thunderstorm activity, heat index values are expected to be in the 100-105 degree range through at least Tuesday as temperatures warm into the low 90s and dewpoints run in the 70s. In fact, some locations could even see heat index values approach or exceed 110 degrees by Tuesday (the hottest day). This has lead to the issuance of a Heat Advisory for much of the area through Tuesday.

Wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires will likely become an issue at times through next week. In fact, it may become more widespread across the Quad State toward the middle to end of next week with a more northerly component to the wind aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Scattered showers could impact KPAH in the first hour or two of the forecast. Overnight fog development is expected over much of the region. IFR or lower conditions are possible. A light west wind is expected to develop at all sites by late morning, and that should keep any smoke-related impacts north of the region.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080>082- 084>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>017-021-022.