textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect today for the entire region, while northern and eastern portions of the region are under only a Heat Advisory on Tuesday. Relief arrives for the remainder of the week with near to slightly below normal temperatures.

- There is a 30-40% chance of scattered thunderstorms this evening into tonight. A few storms may become severe with up to a 15% chance of damaging winds between 7PM to Midnight. One final round of storms is also possible tomorrow evening.

- Daily rain chances return Friday and continue into early next week with high temperatures holding steady in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The extreme heat will continue to spread across the FA this afternoon with dewpoints recovering well into the upper 70s to near 80. Peak heat index values around 115 are progged while Tuesday will be more variable with heat index values ranging from 105-115. For this reason, southwest portions of the region are only under an Extreme Heat Warning for tomorrow with a Heat Advisory covering more north and east. With that said, as a pre frontal shortwave trough rounds a stout upper level ridge this evening, there is a 30-40% chance of another round of scattered thunderstorms into tonight. The most recent runs of the CAMs show most the coverage associated with a MCS remaining to the east, but the HRRR does hint at the potential for some development further west.

While the overall confidence in any coverage is low, any storms that do develop have the potential to be highly impactful, as SPC maintains up to a 15% chance of severe weather with damaging winds being the main concern. The areas of greatest concern is across northern portions of southern Illinois, all of southwest Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile. MLCAPE peaks around 4000 J/kg this afternoon with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, and a theta-e difference of 30-40K. While the thermodynamics begin to wane tonight, they still remain sufficient enough for a severe risk between 7PM to Midnight. One final round of storms does move through Tuesday evening with rain chances peaking at about the same as a cold front eventually moves through. Southeast Missouri, portions of southwest Illinois, and the Kentucky Purchase have the greatest risk.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures follow through the remainder of the week with highs in the 80s as upper level northwest flow prevails across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures remain pretty steady heading into next weekend, but daily rain chances quickly make a return Friday as the GFS/CMC/EC all show a cut off low developing in the vicinity that would result in a fairly unsettled pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A disturbance will approach the region this evening with a PROB30 for TSRA at KMVN/KEVV/KOWB. Confidence in coverage is low, but any storms that develop will be capable of causing microbursts, lightning, and torrential downpours. Tranquil conditions then return through the remainder of the period with FEW-SCT high level clouds. Light southerly winds tonight shift west to northwest Tuesday morning between 7-10 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-082-083-086-087. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-082-083-086-087. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ080-081-084- 085-088>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. Heat Advisory from 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ013>022. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ013>022. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>012.