textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will move in tonight, with best chances (50-90%) between 9pm tonight and midday Sunday. The northern half of the region will see 0.10" or less, while the southern half will see 0.33-50" with higher amounts possible along the southern border.

- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday, then linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 1-2" range, with the heaviest across west Kentucky.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Updated Aviation Discussion for the 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

An initial upper-level disturbance has spread lots of mid clouds across the region today, and has tried to produce some light showers or sprinkles, especially over southeast Missouri. Guidance has some 20+% PoPs, so threw in a slight chance of measurable showers with some sprinkles surrounding it this afternoon. The light shower chances will spread from the Mississippi River northeast through the Tri State through the afternoon.

A more substantial disturbance will bring scattered to numerous showers to the region later this evening through much of Sunday. Instability will mostly remain well to the south of the region, but a stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out along the southern border of the region overnight, especially near the Bootheel. Ensembles indicate that the precipitable water values remain near 200% of normal, so there certainly is enough moisture to be of concern for heavy rainfall and flooding. However, the forcing will not be strong enough or persist long enough to support a serious concern this weekend.

As for timing, it appears that the initial surge of showers northward into the area will occur in the 0-3Z time frame, mainly over southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area of Kentucky. The main rain event throughout the region is expected from 03Z-18Z Sunday. Forecast rainfall amounts will range from around 0.66" in the far south to near zero north of I-64. Showers may linger through Sunday afternoon near the eastern border of the region. Some isolated light showers will then linger through Sunday night, mainly over west Kentucky.

High pressure aloft should keep the area dry Monday into early Tuesday, as our next storm system organizes over the Plains. Forecast winds on Tuesday have trended downward and are not expected to push Advisory criteria (40mph).

Guidance is in reasonable agreement in a north/south oriented band of showers ahead of a cold front moving slowly eastward across Quad State Tuesday afternoon through at least midday Wednesday. Instability will once again be limited with the upper system well north of the region, but the NBM does have a mention of thunder for much of this period. Precipitable water values remain around 200% of normal, so with the slow eastward motion of the band, some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding issues may develop. The current forecast rainfall ranges from around 2" in the southeast to around 1" in the northwest. The 12Z ensembles only have 20-40% chance of reaching just 1" of rainfall, so the current forecast is well to the high side of the latest guidance.

The front should pass at some point Wednesday and that will push the low-level moisture east of the Quad State. While the upper- levels will remain active with plenty of energy streaming by, the NBM has rain chances gradually tapering off by Friday. Based on the latest guidance, the forecast may be dry by Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Conditions are expected to deteriorate as lower clouds and rain that reduces visibility begin to take over the region tonight and into the early morning hours across the sites. Mainly MVFR conditions for the northern sites until 18Z when IFR clouds take hold. However, CGI and PAH will likely see IFR clouds or visibility earlier (5-10Z). Rain should be done by the end of the period, but IFR/MVFR clouds will remain. Winds will remain primarily out of the SE through the period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.