textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A significant heat wave continues across our region, and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Friday evening.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-20% chances) are possible this afternoon across mainly southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and west Kentucky.

- A stray shower or storm is not out of the question Friday, but better chances (30-50%) arrive late Friday night and continue through the Independence Day weekend and into next week.

- Heat and humidity will persist into the weekend, but the gradually increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and additional clouds may help bring down temperatures by a couple degrees. An extension of the heat headlines is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue today and Friday with heat indices of 105 to 112 degrees. There are small chances (15-20%) of showers and storms this afternoon, but these will do little to mitigate our high temperatures in the middle 90s. Friday now looks to be mainly dry, so high temperatures will again reach the middle 90s.

The upper ridge gradually breaking down and pushing farther east will allow shower and storm chances to increase over the weekend to 25-50%, especially during the daytime hours. Just how much this will tamp down temperatures is in question, and heat index readings around 105 degrees or higher are still likely. Extensions of heat products into the weekend are possible, but for now we will hold off until we get a better handle on overall precipitation coverage and accompanying clouds. Shower and thunderstorm chances the first half of next week look to be associated with a frontal boundary slowly sinking south into our region. This will help bring temperatures down toward more seasonable readings and potentially slightly less humid air.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Patchy fog development (MVFR restrictions) will be the main concern overnight. Included TEMPO MVFR restrictions for fog at CGI, PAH and MVN, where crossover temperatures are most likely to be exceeded. SCT-BKN diurnal CU will again develop around 15z with bases around 2500 to 5000ft. Model guidance has picked on the risk of widely scattered storms across west KY in the afternoon. Added PROB30 groups to OWB and PAH between 02/19z and 03/01z. Winds will become calm tonight, then pick up from the S to SW AOA 5 kts after 15, then light and variable again Thursday evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.