textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle and light rain will gradually diminish across the region this morning, but cloudy conditions will remain in place throughout the day.

- Widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday as a north-south oriented line of showers and storms traverse the Quad State. The storms will be slow-moving, likely lingering into Wednesday. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 1 to 2 inch range.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. There is a 60-90% chance of max wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.Stronger gusts will be possible in the line of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A strong upper-level low and surface low will pass well north of the Quad State Monday night through Wednesday. This will drag a north/south oriented cold front through the area from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday morning Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a better chance of seeing substantial rainfall with around a 60- 80% chance of the Quad State seeing an inch or more of rain through Wednesday evening. PWAT values are forecast to be around 200-300% of normal for this time of year and close to climatological maximum, so very heavy downpours are expected Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

Gusty winds will likely develop from the south as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front during the day Tuesday. In fact, there is around a 60-90% chance than wind gusts exceed 30 mph across the area on Tuesday. Overall instability looks to be fairly meager with the system with widespread rainfall and cloud cover, so overall severe weather probabilities remain low. Shear will be strong enough to support damaging wind gusts if they can make it down to the surface. In addition, there is also a low-end tornado threat with 0-3km shear vectors maintaining at least a portion of 30-40kt shear orthogonal to the north/south line of showers/storms. The best chance would be late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Definitely supports a Marginal Risk highlighted by the SPC.

Conditions dry out for Thursday through the most of the weekend with temperatures dropping down to seasonal norms. That would place highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 30s to around 40.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 502 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

IFF/LIFR ceilings will gradually improve through the late morning and early afternoon hours. In fact, by late afternoon MVFR to VFR conditions can be expected. Winds will begin to increase from the south toward the end of this TAF issuance as a cold front approaches from the west, most likely over the CGI/PAH/MVN TAF sites. Gusts could reach close to 25kt toward sunrise Tuesday morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.