textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A 20% chance for spotty light showers exists today, primarily for areas east of the Mississippi River. An isolated shower can't be ruled out again on Friday in the Evansville Tri-state region.

- Our first truly chilly airmass of the Fall season will be in place late this week through the weekend. There is a high probability (70- 80% chance) of a hard freeze Friday and Saturday nights with lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The coldest daytime highs are forecast Friday and Saturday with readings remaining in the 40s.

- Dry conditions are currently forecast this weekend through mid next week. Temperatures should gradually moderate back closer to normal by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Additional shortwave energy diving south out of the western Great Lakes today will deepen the broad 500mb trough in place across the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. It will also provide the necessary lift to produce some isolated/widely scattered showers this afternoon, particularly across southern IL/southwest IN/northwest KY. A final lobe of vorticity will sink south towards the Ohio River on Friday, which may allow a few isolated showers again up in the Evansville Tri-state region (although we currently have silent PoPs). The majority of the shower activity should remain east of our cwa on Friday.

The coldest airmass so far this Fall season will be in place the next 4-5 days as 850mb temps bottom out in the -5 to -7 C range Friday into Saturday. This will lead to highs stuck in the 40s/50s and lows dropping into the 20s/low 30s through Monday. We were certainly due for a cooler stretch like this.

While a mainly dry forecast is expected this weekend through mid next week, there is a cutoff upper low that develops across the Southern Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. The moisture from this system could spread precipitation far enough north to clip portions of southeast MO and west KY Sunday evening into early Monday. Ensemble guidance currently keeps it primarily south of our border though. After this system slides by, mid level ridging builds in mid next week which will lead to temperatures returning to near or even slightly above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

An area of MVFR ceilings will rotate southeast through KEVV and KOWB early in the overnight, then more widespread 4-8kft ceilings will arrive in the pre-dawn hours and linger through much of the day. Some light showers of no impact will be possible in the mid to late afternoon at KEVV and KOWB. Northwest winds will gust to around 20kts in the first few hours of the forecast then drop to 10kts or less around daybreak, then pick back up in the morning with gusts around 20kts for much of the day.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.