textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold high pressure brings a hard freeze this weekend.

- The temperature gradually rebounds next week with dry conditions lasting at least through the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A cold upper low is spinning near Lake Erie this afternoon, with embedded shortwave troughs rotating around it. Surface high pressure centered over Hudson Bay has its axis extending all the way south through the Great Plains. Northerly flow between this high and the low to the east has kept a cold wind blowing today, bringing the coldest day of the season so far. Although some sun this morning led to widespread stratocumulus this afternoon, we expect much of this to dissipate this evening. The result will be a clearing sky with winds diminishing as the surface high's influence becomes stronger. Radiational cooling will lead to widespread low temperatures below freezing, with the coldest temperatures across the western forecast area where winds will be lightest and the sky will be clearest. The upper low continues moving northeast while the surface high gradually expands its influence along the Mississippi River on Saturday. With more sun, most areas reach 50 degrees. Saturday night, though, will be another cold one with light winds and a clear sky bringing a hard freeze just about everywhere. However, some increasing high level clouds from the west could act to hold temperatures up a bit from what they otherwise would be.

As the upper low spins further away into the North Atlantic, upper ridging builds in its place while surface high pressure continues to dominate in the low levels. The result will be an air mass gradually modifying in place with temperatures nudging up a couple of degrees each day. This trend continues through at least midweek when all guidance finally pushes the ridge eastward and opens up a southwesterly flow over the central US. Shortwave troughs passing through this flow and increased moisture have the potential to bring a round or two of showers later in the week. Among the 12Z LREF guidance, up to 40 percent of members bring measurable rain to parts of the forecast area by Thursday evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Cold northwest flow continues today with areas of clouds, some in the MVFR range. Areas of clearing this morning have since filled in with cumulus as the "heat" of the day bubbled up into the colder air just above the surface. Although there may be a stray sprinkle, there will be no aviation impacts aside from pockets of MVFR ceilings for the next couple of hours. These clouds are expected to dissipate this evening leading to a clearer night with diminishing winds as well.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.