textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and dry air is in place today and tomorrow. Tonight's lows are likely in the teens (60-100%). Wind chills tomorrow morning have a greater than 70% of being in the single digits.

- A warming trend kicks off Tuesday with above normal temperatures Wednesday through next Saturday.

- At least light rain is expected throughout the Quad State Wednesday night and Thursday. There is a 50-60% chance of more than a half inch over west Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Cold and breezy today with northwest winds gusting to 25-35 mph thanks to the tight pressure gradient at the sfc ahead of high pressure that's working its way into the area. As the upper trof moves east, more cold air is funneled into the region. NBM has a 60- 100% chance of tonight's lows being in the teens. Given the winds, the LREF has an overwhelming area of greater than 70% chance of wind chills in the single digits tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will also be cold with highs in the 30s.

By Tuesday that sfc high moves to our south/southeast and southerly flow returns and kicks off a warming trend. Tuesday highs will be right around average and then the rest of the week should be above average. Tuesday will be another dry and breezy day with elevated fire risk due to the min RHs in the 30-35% range and possibly lower.

Models are in better agreement about a system rolling through Wednesday night through Thursday. PoPs come back into the forecast Wednesday evening and ramp up overnight to around 50-80% (highest over west KY). PoPs then taper off to the southeast Thursday afternoon and evening. QPF is still up for debate with WPC probably being overdone again. NBM has a 50-60% chance of amounts over 0.5" over west KY (heaviest), the LREF is slightly less than that (30- 50%).

Above average temperatures continue through Saturday before a cold front might come through Saturday night or early Sunday bringing highs back down to around average for Sunday. This cold front is in the Euro and Canadian solutions but not the GFS solutions. If the cold front comes through, it could produce some showers Saturday night through Sunday (about a 20% chance currently).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

SCT-BKN low VFR (and perhaps briefly MVFR) cloud decks across SE IL, SW IN, and NW KY will pass from northwest to southeast across areas east of the Mississippi River overnight into Monday morning. Eventually skies will clear from west to east from late morning into the afternoon as high pressure arrives from the west.

Overnight and morning winds will be NW at 4-8 kts at CGI, MVN, and PAH, and 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at OWB and EVV. Eventually gradient will relax to 3-6 kts late this afternoon with the arrival of the surface high.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.