textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak disturbance will pass south of the region this afternoon and tonight, bringing a 15-30% chance of light rain to areas along the Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky-Tennessee borders.

- Dry weather and seasonably chilly temperatures are expected this weekend.

- A major warmup is forecast next week, with high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal expected. Some locations may see temperatures approach record high values Tuesday through Thursday.

- The next chance of showers (40-60%) and significant rainfall is forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night. There is a 50-70% of rainfall amounts exceeding 0.25" during this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Early this morning, some patchy fog has develop across parts of southeast MO and southern IL in the vicinity of a stationary boundary. Cannot rule out some locally dense fog through daybreak, but plentiful high-cloud cover will likely prevent widespread dense fog development.

This afternoon and evening, an H5 trough will pass through the area, with surface low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley. The region will be on the far northern side of the precipitation, and dry northeast flow will keep the mid-levels relatively dry. This will also limit the northern extent of the precipitation shield. The combination of clouds, precipitation, and the NE winds will keep high temperatures limited to the upper 30s to upper 40s from north to south, respectively.

As it stands, there is about a 15-30% of rain this afternoon and evening along the MO/AR and KY/TN borders. PoPs will be 15% or less further north. Any rain that falls will be light, and the latest NBM ensemble guidance gives only a 20-40% chance of locations along the TN/AR borders of seeing more than 0.10" of rainfall.

Following the departure of this disturbance, dry and seasonably chilly weather is forecast for the first weekend of 2026. The region will be under the influence of dry northwest H5 flow and surface high pressure across the Great Lakes. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 40s on Saturday and Sunday with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

A major warmup is forecast Monday through Thursday next week. Mild pacific zonal flow will overspread the region. High pressure will become centered over the eastern CONUS, and southerly surface flow will allow high temperatures to soar to 15-20 degrees above normal. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 50s on Monday...followed by the lower to middle 60s Tuesday through Thursday. Some locations may see high temperatures approach record warm levels.

The next chance of widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday night through Thursday. Ensemble guidance shows a fairly robust H5 trough passing through the southern Great Plains, while surface low pressure is progged to move through the Ohio Valley. As it stands, PoPs of 40-60% are forecast during this period, and widespread soaking rains are possible. NBM ensemble guidance gives a 50-70% of at least 0.25" across the entire region.

While the current forecast does not include mentionable (sub-15%) thunder chances, a few of the severe machine learning products do include a very small (~5%) risk of severe convection on Thursday. Confidence is too low at this range to message it beyond mentioning it here, but it will be something to watch over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 333 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A weak boundary bisects the FA. It bifurcates lingering restricted bases to the north from increasing high clouds that top a developing system to the south. The boundary flow does not allow much scour in the interim, between the surface anticyclone to the north and developing cyclone to the south, so there's a chance those restricted bases to the north resolve back into the vicinity if not across the MVN-EVV-OWB flight paths. Probably further south from CGI-PAH it's more strictly increasing high level bases/CIGS. We'll stick with the persistence strategy forecast inherited and resolve trends later in the evening/overnight with any necessitated updates.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.