textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat returns Tuesday into Wednesday. Heat index readings reach 95-100 on Tuesday and 100-108 on Wednesday. Heat headlines may be needed on Wednesday. Temperatures then fall back closer to normal late week.

- Widespread showers and storms (60-90% chance of rain) are expected Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front passes through the region. Somewhat unsettled conditions may continue Friday into Saturday with lingering rain chances (20-40%).

- There is a good chance (50-70%) of high temperatures reaching 90 again by next Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is providing lovely weather today. Midday temperatures are hovering in the low to mid 80s. Dew points have mixed down into the mid 50s across parts of southern IL and generally low 60s elsewhere. Likely will see our string of consecutive days hitting 90 degrees end at 9 days except perhaps our far south/southwest.

Upper level ridging currently over the Southern Plains will build back into our region over the next couple of days. Southerly flow will usher in a return of higher humidity as dew points nudge up into the upper 60s to low 70s again. Heat index readings should generally stay below 100 in most locations though. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day as high temperatures reach 95 to 100 combined with continued high humidity to produce heat index values of 100 to 108. HeatRisk is up to level 3 again on Wednesday and it's quite possible a Heat Advisory may be needed.

Shortwave energy sweeping across the northern tier of the U.S. will allow a cold front to push south into our region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to a good shot of rain, something that will certainly be needed, given the dry pattern that has developed. QPF looks greatest across our north where there is an 80% chance of at least 0.25" and a 40-50% chance of 0.50" through Thursday night. Meanwhile places along the AR/TN borders have only about a 40% chance at receiving at least 0.25" via the LREF. The overall threat for severe storms is fairly low, but a few are possible. Seems the best chance for those could be Wednesday night along and north of I- 64 but there could be another window Thursday afternoon across our south if we manage enough clearing for higher instability to develop.

Weak troughing persists across the region Friday into Saturday along with lingering low level moisture (dew points remaining in the low 70). Therefore, it may end up staying rather unsettled with more cloud cover and at least small chances for rain continuing. Guidance has been hinting at the ridge building back into our region yet again by Sunday into Monday next week. Most solutions keep it short- lived though with lower heights arriving by mid week. LREF has a good likelihood (50-70%) of high temperatures hitting 90 again by Sunday-Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

NE winds will be around 6-10 kts this afternoon. Some deeper mixing may allow some gusts around 15 kts in our north. Winds become light/calm this evening. Conditions don't appear favorable for fog formation with the drier airmass, but can't completely rule it out. Low level moisture increases across west KY into southwest IN tomorrow morning likely resulting in some low VFR cloud bases by late morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.