textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms for our western counties this afternoon and into the early overnight. The rest of the area is in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). The main severe threat would be damaging winds.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for the southern counties on Saturday due to a similar set up to today.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through the weekend. Additional storm total amounts of 1-3" is possible with locally higher amounts possible as well. A Flood Watch is in effect through late Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Ongoing convection is expected to continue till morning, along with that is the ongoing flood threat as these extremely efficient, high PWAT storms train over the same areas. More perturbations through the quasi zonal flow aloft move through today and tomorrow. A brief morning lull each day will give way to more afternoon and evening convection with just enough instability for our western counties to be clipped by a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms tomorrow and the rest of the area to be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) tomorrow, while Saturday the southern counties are in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe. The main severe threat would be damaging winds to around 60 mph. Given the potential for repeat convection, the flood threat continues through the weekend. The Flood Watch is in effect through late Saturday night. In addition to the rain that has already fallen, an additional 1-3" is possible across portions of the area through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible.

By early next week upper level ridging sets up mainly over the Plains, though exact placement is still a little questionable. This will lead to a relatively drier week though there may be some off hand 20-30% precipitation chances. As the week goes on highs will go from being seasonable to pushing 90 again as the ridge expands east.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Primary concern for the TAFs is with precipitation chances and timing. Overall, predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions are expected with some IFR/MVFR bouts in precipitation.

Ongoing convection continues to stratify with some embedded lightning mainly from Cape Girardeau to Paducah and points south/southwest. This activity should continue to diminish by later this morning into early afternoon with waning jet support. Abundant moisture and increasing solar insolation may foster some lower stratus and lower MVFR ceilings at times particularly at the northern sites into early afternoon.

CAMs are signaling one or more potential rounds of convection by late this afternoon and tonight, as shortwave energy in Kansas shifts eastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Due to uncertainty in coverage, we have opted for PROB30 TSRA mention for now to cover this potential in the general consensus windows of 22z-03z and then again after 06z per the CAM guidance. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with any storms. Some gusty winds could accompany this activity, and SPC does have a Marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk for mainly wind driven probabilities across the terminals through tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.