textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog across parts of the area early this morning.

- Thunderstorms will be possible today along a warm front and near an approaching low, there is a small potential for a few severe storms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the main concern.

- Sharply colder conditions are forecast behind a front moving through the area tomorrow night. Highs/Lows Saturday will be as much as 25 to 30 degrees cooler than Friday. Frost is possible Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Fog will be the first order of business this morning. There is a shallow stratus layer right along the Ohio River that seems to be preventing parts of the area from really dropping, but south of that where skies are clearer and rain fell today visibilities are dropping quickly. 00z Nashville sounding and the available model soundings show moisture increasing with height through the lowest few hundred feet of the column. Winds at the surface are near calm through the next few hours. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for parts of the area about an hour ago and will be watching other areas to see if the stratus clears out enough to get dense fog at the surface.

A surface low forming over Oklahoma tonight generates warm frontogenetic forcing over the area starting around dawn which may lead to scattered showers. The best chance appears to be over SEMO and southern Illinois in the morning with this particular activity. By late afternoon the main surface cold front starts to move quickly towards the area - increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms from the northwest. Instability is modest overall with this frontal passage but PWAT values remain up above 1.8 inches so efficient rainfall rates appear likely with any showers that do get going. Right along the warm front and close to the surface low passing to the northwest there appears to be a small window for surface-based convection. The most favorable zone for this may be just north and northwest of the area, but there is a marginal risk for wind/hail or isolated tornado activity based on the projected shear/instability/hodograph shape.

After that conditions get pretty pumpkin-spiced with highs likely struggling to reach above 60 Friday and Saturday amid a northwest breeze. The current forecast calls for highs today to be about 25 to 30 degrees warmer than projected highs on Friday. Overnight lows Friday and especially Saturday night appear headed for the 30s. Conditions Saturday night appear cold enough for frost to be a factor.

Southerly flow returns by Sunday/Monday and conditions start to moderate with dry and relatively pleasant conditions expected through the early part of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Fog and low stratus will be factor overnight with some areas seeing visibility drop below 1/4SM. There may be pockets of VFR conditions west of I-57 but conditions appear very conducive for fog formation in a short amount of time anywhere where an hour or so of radiational cooling can get going.

Light to moderate rain moves in from the southwest later today as a front starts to approach from the northwest with periods of below VFR ceilings and visibilities in showers.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ076>078- 081>083-085>087-089>091-094. MO...None. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.