textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will ramp up tonight (15 to 30%) into Thursday (20 to 50%) as a disturbance passes.

- An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be rule out Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms (50 to 80%) are forecast Friday into Saturday. A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible again Friday afternoon and evening.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will arrive Sunday and continue through most of next week. Daily heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are forecast first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

After a couple quiet days, a return of increasingly unsettled conditions then dangerous heat and humidity is expected for next seven days. Isolated showers or thunderstorms (15-30%) are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Greater coverage is expected Thursday afternoon and evening (25-50%) as forcing ramps up.

There may be enough shear and instability to yield an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, with damaging winds being the main threat. A similar severe weather setup is expected to arrive on Friday afternoon into Friday night as a weak shortwave passes, but the added forcing will aide in increasing storm coverage, especially along the stall frontal boundary near or north of I-64. May need to issue a Flood Watch for locations north of I-64 with the next update if the current QPF of 2-4" there holds. Locations further south will see progressive lower amount of precipitation.

The front will retreat to the north again on Sunday as a 596 dm H5 ridge setup up over the area. This will bring our hottest temperatures of the summer (highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s). Dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s will yield daily heat index values of 105-110F Monday into the middle of next week at least. Heat index values this high for so many days will lead to an elevated or substantial risk of heat-related illnesses for those exposed for long duration.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Small probability for ground fog across parts of SEMO tonight after mid level clouds clear. Probability at CGI too low for TAF mention at this point still however. Convection after 00z Friday will be the next potential flight impediment with chances higher at the western terminals before 06z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.