textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will slowly increase and spread from west to east tonight through Sunday night, with 70-90% chances across the entire region Monday through Tuesday morning, slowly ending west to east late Tuesday through Wednesday.

- High temperatures in the lower 90s and high humidity will result in afternoon heat index readings Tuesday through Thursday near to a little above 100 degrees.

- Chances (20-40%) of showers and storms return Thursday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A slow moving upper level low/trof will be approaching the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys from the southwest through the weekend, moving over the PAH forecast area (fa) Monday. 20-30% chances of showers and storms will persist in southeast Missouri this evening, with chances increasing and slowly spreading east across our area late tonight through Sunday ahead of the system. Chances will increase to 70-90% across the entire PAH fa by late Sunday night and persist through the day Monday as the trof moves overhead. Convective activity will slowly decrease from west to east Monday night into Tuesday, with areas west of the Mississippi River dry by Tuesday evening, and the rest of our area dry by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals tonight through Wednesday are mostly in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range, with most of this rainfall from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

Temperatures today through Monday will be within a couple of degrees of season normals. Persistent south to southwest flow will result in increasing low level moisture the rest of the weekend into next week. Dew points by Monday will climb into the lower to middle 70s, remaining at those readings through the end of the week. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near 90 into the lower 90s, and combined with the humidity, heat index readings each afternoon will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, and possibly near 105 degrees.

Models show a late week cold front affecting our region. There are pretty significant timing differences in the models, with some bringing it into our region as early as Thursday afternoon, and others as late as Friday afternoon. With abundant low level moisture, any little disturbance in the upper flow could set off some isolated to scattered convection, and the model blend produces 20-40% chances of showers and storms Thursday through Saturday. As we go forward, models will get better handle on the potential frontal boundary and when we could see better organized convection in the Thursday-Saturday time period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR skies expected through the TAF period with SCT-BKN050 clouds expected through the day, and BKN mid and high clouds this evening and overnight. Southwest winds at 5-10kts will become light to calm this evening, then southerly around 5kts after 13z. No vsbys restrictions. Isolated shra not out of the question this afternoon, then isolated shra/tsra possible Sunday morning, but chances too low to include at this time.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.