textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A few slippery stretches are possible this morning, but temperatures continue to climb above freezing through the day. - Confidence continues to grow in portions of the Quad State seeing major impacts from wintry weather this weekend with prospects of 4+ inches of snow now increased to the 60-80% range! Still looks like southeast Missouri into western Kentucky would see the greatest probabilities (closer to 80%), where the Winter Storm Watch was issued this morning.

- Confidence is high that arctic air will filter in with the winter storm this weekend. Temperatures are likely (80-100% chance) to run about 25 degrees below normal for Friday through at least Monday, putting high temperatures in the teens to low 20s with wind chill readings falling into the single digits above and below zero. A Cold Weather headline will likely be needed this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A brief warm up is expected today, along with a rain/freezing rain/snow mixture early this morning before quickly transitioning to rain by mid morning. This will largely be a result of warm air advection into the Quad State through the day and ahead of the next cold front. There is still a possibility of some brief slippery travel to start the day. Temperatures are forecast to continue to warm into the mid to upper 40s, so any early day impacts will quickly improve as the precipitation transitions over to all rain.

The big story for this forecast issuance is the Winter Storm Potential for this weekend!

Models continue to converge on a heavier snow band stretching through the southern portions of the Quad State area from Friday night through Sunday. This is a result of low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast(over Louisiana) through the day Saturday before lifting northeast to eastern Tennessee by 12Z Sunday. As we've previously been mentioning there is a strong high pressure system that is expected to build southward across the northern Plains, which has plenty of cold dry air to come along with it. The dry air is leading to a more challenging forecast as far as the northward extent of the heaviest snowfall and a sharp cut off in snowfall amount. As far as what is forcing the heavier snow band across the area, there is fairly strong frontogenetic forcing/stretching between roughly 850m and 700mb. The Quad State happens to be right in the middle of that forcing. To aid in the forcing, is the right entrance region of a fairly strong upper-level jet being directly overhead this weekend allowing for the more widespread precipitation with this system. A quick look at the thermal profile suggests strong forcing (and even some instability) in the dendritic growth zone, but it is fairly high up in the atmosphere (650-500mb) with quite a bit of wind in the layer as well. That could lead to some fracturing of the better snowflake sizes with a fair amount of accretion all the way to the surface. In other words, the fluffier snow flakes may may struggle a bit, resulting in somewhat lower snow to liquid ratios. It is a cold airmass, so they will likely still be better than our typical 10:1.

The latest trend in the guidance has nearly all models aligned (deterministic, AI and ensembles) with the placement of the heavy snow band trending north into the southern half of the Quad State, where the Winter Storm Watch was issued. In fact, significant travel impacts are possible in those locations where storm totals may exceed 5 inches. The latest probabilities are showing the probabilities of 4+ inches in the watch area in the 60-80% range and probabilities of 6+ inches in the 60-70% range. We could keep going even into the higher ranges, but that is a good start and it gives a good idea of the trends and the increasing confidence in the potential for a significant winter storm in the Quad State. Typically we would hold off for a couple more model runs, but the scale of the impacts seemed to be worth going ahead and increasing messaging and awareness for this event.

Again, it is very possible if not likely that additional adjustments will be made and I leaned toward being cautious on the northward extent of the Winter Storm Watch due to the potential of dry air limiting snow totals/impacts farther north with this update. Those areas will probably see snow, but the confidence isn't there yet to expand the Watch into those locations. Timing is also a challenge, especially the start time as result of any lingering dry air to overcome. In fact, the start time of the Watch was coordinated with neighboring offices, which may actually be a bit early for our area. There may be a couple rounds of snow Friday night into Saturday morning, a brief break early Saturday afternoon, then the heaviest snow late Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. That will all need to be ironed out ahead of any potential upgrade.

There's better confidence in very cold air pushing into the region Friday through Monday of next week. In fact, there is a high probability (70-100% chance) that the Quad State will see temperatures about 20 degrees below normal. That would put highs in the teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits. Of course any snow on the ground could cause the temperatures to fall further. Wind chill readings will likely approach Cold Weather Advisory or possibly even Extreme Cold Warning criteria!! Just another big impact worth discussing outside of the snow chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 448 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Some light freezing rain and rain are possible at the TAF sites through around 14Z this morning before warming above freezing. The best chance will be at CGI/OWB. Ceilings are expected to become MVFR and possibly IFR through early afternoon before improving to VFR this evening and tonight. Winds are expected to remain light; however, some LLWS is possible for the first few hours of this issuance.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ILZ088>094. MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.