textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- It will be a cool start to the week, but the heat will return for Wednesday and Thursday, when high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

- A cold front will bring a 40-60% chance of showers as it passes through the Quad State late Thursday through Friday morning. Chances of showers will linger through the weekend, with a slight chance of thunderstorms mixed in Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Surface high pressure will linger over the Quad State today into Tuesday, then build to the east, allowing south winds to return to the region Wednesday. Temperatures will start out a few degrees below normal today and then trend upward through Wednesday and Thursday, when highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees are expected. The NBM has a 30-50% chance of temperatures reaching at least 90 on Wednesday, and a 30-90% chance on Thursday. The best chances will generally be in the south and east each day.

Guidance continues to struggle with the strength of mixing, therefore temperatures may outperform the NBM numbers today and Tuesday. Expect relative humidity to drop into the 20-30% range over much of the region both days. Thankfully, winds will remain light, so fire danger should remain in check.

A storm system moving through Ontario on Thursday will push a cold front through the Quad State Thursday night into early Friday. The NBM has a 40-60% chance of showers near the front, as it passes through the region, but instability will be very limited, so no thunder or heavy rainfall is expected.

The forecast for the weekend and beyond is quite murky, and appears to be in flux at this time. The 00Z EC and GFS have a similar scenario that goes like this. The southern stream system now shears out over the southern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some of its energy will stream over the Quad State Friday night and Saturday producing widespread showers. Then a northern stream system will descend on the Great Lakes and push another cold front through the area, bringing an end to the rain Saturday evening.

As always the NBM lags the trend, and that may not be a bad thing in this situation, with influences from multiple streams aloft. This NBM-based forecast still has PoPs beginning Thursday and continuing every period through next Monday.

Temperatures will drop back below normal behind Thursday night's cold front and will then trend even cooler Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Some shallow fog at KMVN may take an hour or so to burn off at the beginning of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast. Some more fog cannot be ruled out tonight, but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.