textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average high temperatures will impact the area through Wednesday. Most locations will near 10-12 degrees above the climatological normal.

- A few showers or thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front on Wednesday afternoon. There is a very small risk for a few severe storms with damaging wind the main concern.

- A cold front will advance Wednesday night, dropping temperatures significantly through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Main focus of the forecast this morning is the precip/convective chances on Wednesday and the cooldown following the first arctic-related cold front of the season. A digging shortwave trough approaches from the northwest Wednesday and boots a closed low riding along the southern stream. The geometry of this evolution keeps our surface level flow out of the southwest with advection from central Texas and that results in a very moisture-starved scenario ahead of frontal passage. Surface dewpoints have been very consistent in the 57-58 degree range which matches expectations when looking at the source airmass region. With that drier low level you end up with a deep mixed boundary layer and about 400-600 J/kg of entrainment factored Mixed-Layer CAPE. The timing of solar heating and frontal passage leads to HRRR/RRFSv1&2/REFS to prefer popping convection across the eastern third of the area in the afternoon. If convection can initiate it will be amid 40-50 kts of deep layer flow and southwesterly 850mb winds around 30 kts. This would be a fairly favorable environment for some wind potential with a small tornado risk (high LCLs and a fairly unidirectional hodograph really mitigate this though). The moisture advection is a little higher at the top/just above the boundary layer in most high-resolution projections so I think its possible we get some pseudo-elevated convection even if cells manage to initiate.

All that rambling aside I think the most likely scenario is a few isolated to scattered pseudo-elevated showers in the pre- frontal environment. The contingency (maybe 2-5% probability) centered around overperforming moisture return or better than modeled boundary layer heating would be for isolated wind or tornado potential with the highest chances over the Kentucky Pennyrile.

A much colder airmass invades behind the front with temperatures falling 20 to 25 degrees. Highs Thursday and Friday look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Thursday still features northwest winds 10-20 mph which will make it feel even chillier. We get on the warm side of the ridge by Sunday moderating temperatures. ECMWF/GFS show another upper shortwave tracking close by on Monday but for now track any precip to the south of the area as 1034mb high pressure sets up over Ohio/Indiana.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The only potential impediment to Visual Flight Rules is patchy daybreak fog at prone terminals as surface high pressure remains nestled across the TN Valley. We'll continue our ride of a persistence strategy forecast, retaining some inherited restrictions mainly at KCGI/KMVN with honorable mention at KPAH. Light swlys develop tmrw otherwise another SKC day is in store with 300+ MB condensation pressure deficits holding strong in the bone dry column as seen on time/height cross sections.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.