textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmth returns today with a near certainty that the entire Quad State region will reach at least 55 degrees. Over the Ozark Foothills, there is a near certainty of reaching at least 60 degrees.

- The lone chance of rainfall for the upcoming week is tonight into early Wednesday, generally in the 9 PM to 9 AM time frame. Chances range from 30% along I-64 to 70% over west Kentucky. 0.1"-0.2" of rainfall is expected over the Bootheel and west Kentucky, with just a few hundredths expected farther north.

- Breezy conditions are expected through the next week. There is a near certainty that the entire Quad State region will see at least 20kt (23 mph) gusts each day through next Tuesday, with the lone exception being Thursday. The best chance (20-50%) for 40 mph gusts will be on Friday over southeast Missouri. - An initial shot of cold air will arrive Wednesday night and Thursday, and then reinforcements arrive for the weekend into next week. There is a near certainty that the Evansville Tri State will remain below freezing from Friday night through the weekend. Wind chills Sunday morning will range from 5 below to 5 above zero from north to south across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026to

An upper-level trough will deepen and cover most of the country east of the Rockies by the end of the day Wednesday. Several smaller pockets of energy will help to carve out the trough and bring reinforcing shots of cold air to the Quad State through the weekend and into next week.

Ahead of the initial disturbance, gusty southwest winds will bring a nice warm up to the Quad State with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s which is around 15 degrees above normal. Southwest winds will gust 20-30 mph for much of the day. A few higher gusts are possible, but they should remain safely below 40 mph which is Wind Advisory criteria.

A band of light rain is expected to develop just ahead of the cold front late this evening and push southeast of the region Wednesday morning. This NBM forecast seems a little low on the PoPs with ensembles indicating a near certainty of at least 0.01" throughout the Quad State. In general, expect the rain to be a bit more hit and miss late this evening over the northern half of the region and then fill in over the southeast half of the region with the most rainfall over the Bootheel and west Kentucky. The ensembles are in strong agreement that 0.10" or more will fall over the Bootheel and west Kentucky. However, 0.25" would be stretch even along the southern border.

Gusty northwest winds will bring cold air to the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures are likely to be steady or fall during the day, and by Thursday morning low temperatures will be in the teens with wind chills near 10 degrees throughout the region.

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Thursday resulting in a calm and cold day with highs in the 30s. As the next disturbance approaches, southwest winds will kick in Thursday night and gradually become westerly Friday. The ensembles indicate a decent chance of approaching 40 mph gusts over southeast Missouri and portions of southwest Illinois. This will lead to a brief warm up to near normal levels Friday.

In comparison to the most recent ensembles, the NBM once again seems too low with PoPs ahead of this impulse Thursday night into Friday morning. The ensembles indicate some chance possibly as far west as the Mississippi River, while the NBM has slight chance PoPs only over the Evansville Tri State. Any precipitation Thursday night into early Friday would be snow.

Another shot of very cold air will arrive Friday night and continue into next week. The ensembles indicate that there is no chance of the Tri State reaching the freezing mark over the weekend, and at least a 50% of the entire Quad State staying below freezing through the weekend. The combination of winds and the cold air will bring wind chills near Cold Advisory levels Sunday morning when the NBM has -4 near MVN and +5 near Ft Campbell. It will only improve a few degrees for Monday morning.

As a series of impulses dive southeast through the region later Friday through Saturday, there could be some periods of flurries or light snow, especially over the northeast half of the region. For the most part the NBM keeps the area dry. The chance of impactful snow is near zero, but portions of the area could certainly see some snow falling at times. A final impulse will bring a chance of more light snow or flurries at some point Sunday night through next Tuesday. to After Tuesday it appears that the upper pattern finally relaxes which should lead to some modest warming.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast overnight with relatively light winds. Gusty southwest winds pick up by mid morning Tuesday easing after sunset as a strong cold front marches in from the northwest. Impacts from this front may be a factor late in the new TAF period (04-06z or so) but kept things a little slower at all but MVN for now.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.