textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures persist with lows around 10 to 15 degrees tonight.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through Tuesday with relative humidity values dropping into the 20%-30% range along with continued drought and gust winds.

- Long range guidance remains in two separate camps regarding a potential winter storm this weekend. It is too early for any degree of confidence beyond that there is a possibility of impactful wintry weather this weekend with prospects of 4+ inches of snow somewhere in the region about 15-25%.

UPDATE

Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

You know it is mid-January when you are sitting in the upper 20s and another cold front is still moving through. Air in the upper teens with dewpoints near zero or below is moving in from the northwest on bitterly chilly northwest winds. We will probably bottom out in the lower teens tonight as winds become calm, with a few high clouds to complicate radiational cooling. Southerly winds return tomorrow leading to warmer conditions and highs above freezing with a stronger surge of warm-air advection on Wednesday leading to some light shower/rain activity and highs probably moving into the upper 40s.

The main item of interest in this forecast period is the combination of a massive polar ridge of high pressure, weighing in at 1045mb or so, and an upper trough that sparks up precip over the southeastern US. It is still extremely early in meteorological timescales to have too much intelligent insight into this system so take that into account as I make an attempt. The deterministic GFS continues to hold a 170-180 kt westerly jet max in place over southern MO/IL/IN on Saturday that generates most of the lift to our south and never really develops much of a surface cyclone. Precip wise the deterministic GFS is dry but ensemble members do produce 0.2 to 0.5 mean inches of QPF over mainly the southern half of the region as does the AIGFS. The ECMWF is further north with the jet max and more proximate with the upper trough and right-rear quadrant of the jet max and what evolves is a pretty favorable heavily snow track for the quad-state region with a surface low tracking through MS/AL/GA while cold air piles in from the north. Both models for now feature cold conditions and a very deep dendritic snow growth region in the deterministic output, however, it wouldn't take a great deal of shuffling however to nudge warmer air up towards our southern border and put mixed precip in place. SLRs given the deterministic profile would likely be quite a bit higher than normal for the area.

The snowier ECMWF-like synoptic solution looks a little more realistic/consistent and the mean of all models leans a little more in that camp right now. However this far out I would be amazed if we don't see different ripples shake out of the upper air pattern in all of the guidance over the next 24-48 hours that could very well lead to remarkably different results down low. with all this considered there is is a reasonable chance for an impactful winter weather event. The probability for warning threshold snow (4") somewhere in the CWA is probably about 15-25% right now factoring in all the uncertainty with 120+ hour lead time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through this TAF package. Light/calm winds tonight will become southwesterly around 7-11 kts late morning into the afternoon on Tuesday. Can't rule out some gusts around 15-18 kts in southeast MO or southwest IL Tuesday afternoon. Mainly clear skies tonight will give way to some mid cloud tomorrow morning into early afternoon, particularly across the north half of the region.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.