textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today and this evening, but widespread showers and storms are expected to move eastward across the Quad State beginning early Saturday morning in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Over an inch of rainfall is possible (50-80% chance in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois) before it exits to the east late Saturday evening.

- Near record warmth is forecast for today and tonight with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A cold frontal passage Saturday will send temperatures down to near or below normal levels from Sunday through Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Large and broad troughing takes up much of the western 2/3rds of the CONUS this afternoon with a pinwheel closed low over south Dakota. The momentum of this trough continues to take it to the east and a cold front is starting to slowly make its way across the central Plains. Closer to home moderate warm-air and moisture advection is leading to a slowly scattering stratus to stratocumulus deck with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and dewpoints into the middle 60s. A few showers have tried to spark off amid this increasingly warm and moist airmass but the low level lapse rates and thermodynamics look too marginal for them to build much beyond isolated to widely scattered.

A much better chance of rain is forecast for in the morning as the main cold front approaches. Instability never gets too impressive with poor mid and low level lapse rates but isolated to scattered thunderstorms still appear possible mid 500-1000 J/kg of ML/MUCAPE. PWATs increase to around 1.6 to 1.7 with a fairly large warm cloud layer depth so high precip efficiency looks likely and a quick inch or so of rain looks entirely possible.

The colder air moving in behind the system put us back closer to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for a few days. By late next week conditions warm up amid dry weather as surface high pressure sets up to our southeast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will move from west to east across the region late tonight through the day on Saturday. Vsby reductions to at least MVFR levels are expected along with occasional restrictions to IFR or lower in heavier showers/storms. Cloud bases will also lower to MVFR territory during the morning and will be slow to return to VFR levels, but should gradually do so later in the day in the northwest at least. South/southwesterly winds tonight into tomorrow morning will become northwesterly behind the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Some gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range are possible through the period, along with briefly higher gusts with any stronger convection.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.