textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible late this evening primarily over southeast Missouri. Damaging winds and torrential rainfall will be the main concerns, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

- A wet and mild weekend is in store across the Quad State. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be tonight and again Sunday. High temperatures may struggle to reach 80 over the weekend with the extensive cloud cover and rain potential, which could threaten record cold highs.

- A daily chance of (20-40%) of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday and Tuesday. The best chances will be over the eastern half of the Quad State.

- Mild conditions will continue through Tuesday, then temperatures will trend toward normal by Wednesday and then into the lower 90s throughout the area by Friday. Triple digit heat indices will also return by the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 503 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The area of showers currently moving across the Quad State has been much more pesky than advertised, which has resulted in a lot wetter day over much of the region. It has been weakening as it moved east, but just not as drastically as just about all guidance was showing, so we will expect it to continue to weaken through the remainder of the area, but most places will at least see some light rain. The positive from all of this, is that destabilization will struggle behind it over southeast Missouri.

As for the severe threat tonight, the CAMs are generally advertising a pretty significant severe storm environment over Missouri, but the eastern extent of it is in doubt after today's system. With MLCAPE 1000-2500J/kg, 0-3km SRH 200-400m2/s2, and 0-1km SRH 150-200m2/s2, supercells with damaging winds and a tornado threat are a strong possibility.

Looking at obs over Missouri, a boundary has set up from central MO south to just east of KUNO. This boundary will likely push eastward into our far western areas through the remainder of the day, meanwhile the cold front which is already into west central Missouri will continue southeast. Each of these boundaries are likely focal points for thunderstorm development. For our area, I would expect storms to move quickly south along the boundary/eastern edge of the instability. The timing is still not clear, but should still be this evening, and most likely the latter half of the evening. The showers today have been very efficient rain producers, so with the instability expected in the far west this evening, some flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Hopefully, the storms will be moving fast enough to mitigate much of the flooding threat.

Farther to the east across the area, instability really drops off and convection should generally be weaker. However, widespread showers and storms should progress through the area overnight along with the cold front. Some heavy rain will be possible, and some minor flooding issues may develop, especially in those poor drainage areas.

Much of Saturday will be dry behind the cold front, but wraparound showers and storms will spread southeast into the Quad State in the afternoon and continue through Sunday. No severe threat is expected, but with the proximity of the upper low some cold air funnels could dance around the area.

Heading into next week, guidance is still not certain how far east the upper low will push, leaving the possibility of some showers or even storms developing in the far east in the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday it should definitely push east of the region, as high pressure aloft builds over the Quad State. The forecast dries out and high temperatures should climb back to normal levels Wednesday, and by next Friday, highs will be in the lower 90s throughout the region and heat indices will be in the 100-105 range. If dewpoints overachieve, as they seem to always do this summer, another Heat Advisory may be needed Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 503 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

While there may be a temporary reprieve from restrictions this evening, additional restrictions with overall deteriorating conditions are expect overnight as a cold front approaches. Showers/storms will accompany the front's arrival and ultimate passage, and time/height cross sections suggest improvement tmrw will be slow/gradual, likely staying within restricted bounds for most terminals/most of the day.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.