textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures are expected this weekend. Some locations could break monthly high temperature records for March.

- A potent cold front will sweep through the region Sunday evening, bringing a 25-50% chance of thunderstorms east of the Mississippi River. An isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging wind gusts is possible.

- Temperatures will cool back to seasonable values early next week, but will warm up again to 10-20 degrees above normal by Thursday.

- Another chance (25-50%) of shower and thunderstorms returns to the forecast Thursday and Friday, along with cooler temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A rare and unusually warm period of early summer heat is forecast this weekend. As the extreme heat dome across the southwest CONUS expands eastward into the Midwest, temperatures at 850 mb will rise to 18-22C today and Sunday. This is pretty much outside of the observed climatology for March in this part of the world.

Temperatures today and Sunday will warm into the middle and upper 80s. However, in the Ozark Foothills, high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s are possible. To put that heat in context, the warmest March temperature on record at any of our five official climate sites is 93F, set in Carbondale on March 23, 1910. Monthly temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken today or Sunday at Paducah (85F in 1967), Evansville (87F in 1929), and Cape Girardeau (85F in 1986).

The taste of summer will end Sunday evening as potent cold front sweeps through the region from north to south. Model guidance has trended a bit more robust in storm coverage for locations east of the Mississippi River, now up to 25-50%. However, the entire region will be under a very strong cap, and confidence in storm initiation and coverage remains very low. If storms can develop, they will be high-based with a downburst damaging wind threat as the primary threat. SPC has a good part of the forecast area east of the Mississippi River in a Marginal Risk for Sunday evening, which is probably OK as far as messaging goes.

Following the passage of the cold front, Canadian high pressure will bring a major cooldown back to typical late March temperatures as it sags into the Midwest. As the surface high shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will increase, bringing another warmup for the latter half of next week to 10-20 degrees above normal by Thursday. Another cold front associated with a progged surface low passing through the Great Lakes looks to bring another chance (25-50%) of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday into Friday, but details regarding the timing and coverage remain vague still.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Under clear or mostly clear skies, winds will be from the SW around 5-10 kts at CGI and PAH. Further north at EVV, MVN, and OWB, winds will be variable around 4-6 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.