textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions can be expected today, with a Heat Advisory in effect from 11am through 8pm.

- 20-50% chances showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region today, with chances peaking at 60-90% late tonight through Thursday night with the slow passage of a cold front.

- Strong to severe storms are possible across most of our region today, mainly from mid afternoon through this evening. Strong to severe storms will again be possible mainly Thursday afternoon across southeast Missouri, far west Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois. Damaging winds are the primary concerns today and Thursday.

- On and off 20-40% chances of showers and storms will continue Friday through Sunday.

- After a brief return of near seasonable temperatures Friday, above normal temperatures return over the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Increasing southwest winds today ahead of an approaching cold front will push high temperatures into the 94 to 101 degree range. With dew points in the lower to middle 70s, heat indices will reach 102 to near 110 degrees, and a Heat Advisory is in effect from late this morning until early evening.

Models show a cold front moving through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late tonight through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as midday today (20-40% chances), with chances by late tonight increasing to 60-90% north to 30-50% south. As front pushes through the PAH forecast area Thursday, the highest chances will become focused across our southern half of counties by late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.

SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms today across all of the PAH forecast area except southern portions of the Pennyrile region. There is a Day 2 Marginal Risk across southern Missouri, far west Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern with storms both days.

Models show the front lifting back to the northeast Friday into Friday night. The model blend produces 20-40% chances of showers and storms Friday into Friday evening. Things remain unsettled into the weekend, with 20-40% chances of showers and storms Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, and 20% chances during the day Sunday. Dry conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday, then models show an approaching cold front Tuesday producing shower and storm chances into at least mid week.

After a brief return of near seasonal temperatures Friday, winds shifting back to the south will push temperatures back to well above normal with highs mostly in the lower 90s over the weekend, and the lower to middle 90s Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Conditions will predominantly VFR through at least 00z. An approaching cold front will bring increasing chances of shra/tsra from north to south this afternoon and tonight. Included PROB30 at KMVN by 20z, and after 00z at the other TAF site. MVFR vsbys are likely with tsra, and gusty winds near storms will be possible. Winds will increase from the south/southwest to 6-12kts after 13z.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.