textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and less humid conditions are expected through Saturday.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and some severe storms will be possible.

- High temperatures through the next week will be at or below normal. Low temperatures will also be at or below normal, with the exception of Sunday night when most of the region will see lows in the lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Surface high pressure and dry northwest flow aloft will keep the Quad State dry and somewhat cool (for the middle of June) today and Saturday.

Warm advection will get going Saturday night ahead of a disturbance moving east out of the central Plains. A few showers or storms may reach the western half of the region by daybreak Sunday.

There are strong signals for an MCS to move eastward through northern Missouri into central and northern Illinois Sunday, which would keep the more widespread heavy rainfall threat north of our area. However, with the potential for some capping south of the MCS, instability could be moderate or better by peak heating and we could have some enhanced westerly flow in the mid and upper levels. This would definitely lead to a chance of severe storms with a damaging wind and large hail threat, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Of course, with zonal flow it is possible the MCS is farther south resulting in more of a heavy rainfall threat after all. A cold front will move through the area late Sunday night and Monday, and that should eventually bring an end to the convection.

A weak zonal or slightly cyclonic upper flow pattern is expected Tuesday and Wednesday and a few showers or storms cannot be completely ruled out. More substantial warm advection should bring a better chance of showers and storms Thursday into next Friday.

South winds will increase and become gusty Sunday which will bring much more humid air rapidly north across the Quad State. Although clouds and convection may hold temperatures down to normal levels or below, heat indices may climb into the lower and middle 90s. Otherwise, with northerly flow and plenty of cloud cover, temperatures through the week will generally be at or below normal levels for highs and lows. The exception for low temperatures will be on Sunday night when dewpoints in the lower 70s and breezy conditions could hold lows up in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The TAFs are VFR with light northeast winds through the day. Calm winds are expected tonight, and some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out, mainly at KMVN.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.