textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and this evening mainly along the I-64 corridor and Evansville Tri State region. A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two are possible.

- Breezy south winds and lots of sun will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s throughout the Quad State region Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s and 70s are expected through Tuesday.

- A 20-60% chance of thunderstorms returns to the forecast Monday afternoon, with the best chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

One weak upper-level disturbance will continue to work east northeast across the Quad State this afternoon. The associated mid-level clouds and sprinkles will continue as it moves over the eastern half of the region. A second disturbance taking shape near or just north of KSTL will also continue eastward, and the HRRR generates thunderstorms with it late this afternoon near KMVN and through the Evansville Tri State this evening. However, that activity is mainly along and north of a warm front that is currently lifting north of Fairfield Illinois and Evansville Indiana. It is likely that this boundary will continue to lift north out of the Quad State this afternoon ahead of the second disturbance. This cast some doubt on the HRRR's convective development southward into our region.

If we do get storms into the area, the HREF has 1000-2000J/kg of SBCAPE and near 200m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH, which is supportive of rotating updrafts. However, that shear is the result of slightly backed surface flow along and north of the warm front, so if it lifts north of the area, the environment will not be as supportive of severe storms. Near and north of the warm front, initial supercells with all severe threats can be expected late this afternoon and this evening. There is evidence that these storms could develop upscale and transition to a more linear damaging wind threat this evening. South of the warm front, the potential moderate instability would still support a more isolated large hail and damaging wind threat.

The warm front will be well north of the Quad State Sunday, as an upper-level ridge builds northwest over the region. That will keep the area dry and sunny with gusty south winds and temperatures soaring into the upper 80s and possibly the lower 90s. The NBM has a 50-80% chance of lower 90s Sunday over the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky and 10-30% chances elsewhere across the region. Similar temperatures are expected for Monday, and the NBM has similar probabilities of reaching 90 degrees.

Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday over most of the Quad State. The southern Pennyrile should remain dry Monday. The NBM has 750-1500J/kg of SBCAPE from east to west across the region, but the flow aloft will be rather weak, so a few isolated storms may briefly approach severe levels, but an organized severe threat is not expected at this time.

Increasing moisture with dewpoints approaching 70 degrees on Tuesday will result in more widespread thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday when a cold front will finally pass. At this time, the flow aloft continues to look rather weak, so an organized severe threat seems like a stretch, but localized heavy rainfall will be possible with the anomalously high precipitable water values forecast across the region. The ensemble PW forecast is at or above the 95th percentile of climatology.

With southwest flow aloft the synoptic cold front may not clear the entire area, or if it does, it could stall out not far south of the Quad State. As additional ripples ride the southwest flow aloft over the region, rounds of showers and even thunderstorms could continue through the end of this forecast. The NBM actually has this well in hand at this time (So the front will likely clear well south of the region and we will be dry Thursday into the weekend!). The passage of the cold front will take temperatures back to normal levels, if not below for the last half of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The TAFs are VFR outside of TSRA. Used the latest HRRR for convective timing along and north of the warm front from KMVN through KOWB. It will be a rather short window of time at KMVN near 00Z, and longer period, much of the evening, at KEVV and KOWB. Confidence is not high, so used Prob30s with MVFR conditions to handle the convective threat. The warm front will lift north of the area early Sunday, and that will allow south winds to increase and become gusty with mixing in the morning. Gusts 15-20kts are expected, with the strongest gusts at KMVN and KCGI.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.