textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms late this afternoon and into the early overnight. The main threats would be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms on Friday due to a similar set up to today.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through the weekend. Storm total amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible. A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

As an upper wave weakens and shifts east today a sfc warm front lifts north through the area and begins to wash out. This will push dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon along with highs in the lower 90s. While the flow aloft remains quasi zonal, a series of kinks in the flow will provide for more active weather today and through the weekend. Today an increase in 0-6 km bulk shear to around 20-30 kts will help storms to be slightly more organized and with daytime heating comes 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and steeper low level lapse rates (primarily over the northern half of the CWA, which lends itself to the SPC Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, today).

Several CAMs suggest a late day evolution of a linear system of storms along what is left of the warm front (a low level convergence zone) over the northern half of the CWA. Primary threats would be damaging winds and heavy rainfall. A similar set up is responsible for the SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) tomorrow.

Continued rounds of heavy rainfall are expected through the weekend. Should these train over the same areas, localized flooding will be a concern. Storm total rainfall of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts to around 3-5 inches are possible. This is the reason a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through Saturday night. Looking into next week, upper ridging establishes across the upper Midwest, this means the majority of the week looks drier with highs back to around average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MVFR vsbys are possible late night into the early morning hours. Low-end VFR clouds increase during the day, with spotty afternoon showers and a few storms. A partial or extended line of thunderstorms moves southeastward through the Quad State during the evening hours, bringing moderate to heavy rain and vsbys of MVFR/IFR (brief LIFR conditions may be possible). Some strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in the evening hours. Calm winds overnight increase to 6-8 kts out of the SSW during the day with gusts generally limited to thunderstorms.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.