textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures can be expected today, with low chances (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase to 80-100% late tonight through most of Saturday, with showers ending from west to east late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this evening in portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, mainly northwest of a line from Mount Carmel to Marion, Cape Girardeau and Poplar Bluff.

- Temperatures will be 15 to around 20 degrees cooler through the weekend.

- A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through Thursday, with small chances (around 20%) of showers and storms returning Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

South winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. This will result in temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 80s this afternoon. These values will flirt with record highs, especially across the southern half of our region. Tying or breaking any records will be very dependent on if convection develops. Models indicate at least some widely scattered convection is possible this afternoon. Confidence is not very high in how much coverage we will see, but 20-30% chances seem warranted for now between 17z-00z.

By 06z tonight, models show the cold front extending through central Illinois into southwest Missouri. Showers and thunderstorms will begin spreading into the PAH forecast area from the northwest late this evening, spreading across the rest of the area by mid morning Saturday. Peak chances of 80-100% will be across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri from 08z-18z, and across southwest Indiana and west Kentucky from 12z-21z. The potential for thunderstorms will be mainly along and ahead of the cold front. With the cold front moving through during the morning and early afternoon, thunderstorm chances will decrease from west to east from late morning through the afternoon. Showers will linger behind the front ahead of the associated upper trof, so showers will then gradually taper off late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Forecast rainfall totals have trended upward a little, with QPF now from near a half an inch to around one inch.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook includes northwest/west portions of the PAH forecast area in a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly northwest of a line from Mount Carmel to Marion Illinois, to Cape Girardeau and Poplar Bluff Missouri. This potential will be mainly late this evening to a little after midnight with the initial onset of thunderstorms moving into our region. The main hazards with storms will be damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado potential.

We will see a significant cool down behind the front through the weekend. High temperatures Saturday will be 12 to 20 degrees cooler than today. Lows Saturday night will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs Sunday will be seasonable in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds will shift to the south late Sunday night into Monday, beginning an warming trend. Temperatures by mid to late week will be around 10 degrees above normal.

High pressure will keep conditions dry through the first half of the work week. Models differ quite a bit in timing of a late week system. The latest model blend produces 20% chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday for now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Shower chances this afternoon have decreased enough to justify removal from the TAF. Breezy SSW winds continue with sky coverage greatest in the far northeast and northwest. Showers and thunderstorms move in late night, with vsby drops accompanying the stronger storms. MVFR cigs move in with the storms and linger through the morning as winds shift towards northwesterly.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.