textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm weekend is forecast across the Quad State, and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over southeast Missouri on Sunday.

- A significant severe weather episode remains possible Monday afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

After a mostly dry and warm weekend, a major severe storm outbreak is possible across the Quad State Monday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible over the Ozark Foothills Sunday, but a capping inversion will most likely keep the area dry.

For Monday, the forecast environment certainly would support a potentially high-end severe weather event. SBCAPE could climb to 3000-4000J/kg over southeast Missouri, with 0-3km SRH values over 300m2/s2 and much of that in the 0-1km layer. Deep mixing (over 5kft) could mix out the best low-level moisture, and the NBM has only middle 60s over roughly the western half of the region. The dewpoints and CAPE values trend downward over the eastern half of the Quad State. The shear will be greatest near KMVN and weakest near Ft Campbell. An elevated mixed layer will be in place, with 700mb-500mb lapse rates approaching dry adiabatic. Of course this comes with a nice cap that will have to be overcome. This parameter space is definitely supportive of supercells with all manner of severe threats, including very large hail, damaging winds, and strong, long-track tornadoes.

The assumption is that storms will develop over or move into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois in the late afternoon or early evening. However, convective initiation could be elusive with the cap, generally weak convergence about a pre-frontal trough/dryline, and the better upper support likely to be north of the Quad State. Although guidance generally agrees that main period of concern for most of the region will be 00Z-06Z Tuesday, how soon and how far east development will begin is still in question.

Initial convective development near the pre-frontal trough and any warm sector development will be in the form of supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and strong, long-track tornadoes. If storms can remain more isolated, supercells could remain the primary mode through the entire area. However, if the storms are more numerous, cold pool development could result in upscale development over the eastern half of the Quad State. If a linear mode develops, widespread damaging winds and tornadoes would be the primary concerns.

Behind this system, guidance keeps the cold front over the region and develops a weak wave along it as another disturbance arrives Tuesday. PoPs are now 60-70% over most of the region Tuesday night, with the best chances over west Kentucky. Instability could be decent, but shear should be rather weak, so severe storms are not expected, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out at this time.

Winds will become northerly by Wednesday and with upper troughing amplifying over the northeast, they will remain in place through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will drop down to normal levels and below. Depending on how a southern stream system interacts with the larger northern stream trough, some rain/showers could reach at least southern portions of the Quad State Thursday night into Friday.

As for the Dense Fog Advisory, the more persistent reductions to visibility are currently in the Advisory area, so will leave it alone for now and continue to monitor for possibly expansion.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Fog at most sites early this morning will burn off by 15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light northeast winds are forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ082-086>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ009- 011>013-015>022.