textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm conditions with small rain chances in parts of southeast Missouri and north of Interstate 64 are forecast today and Monday.

- A major late season heat wave is forecast Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s with daily peak heat index values around 105 degrees or higher. A Heat Advisory will very likely be needed.

- Slightly cooler and less humid conditions arrive by the end of the week, along with low-end 15 to 25% chances of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The main story over the next several days will be a major late season heat wave, with the worst of the heat being Tuesday through Thursday. The driver of this heat will be a very strong H5 ridge that will expand from the southern Plains into the Mid-South by Tuesday.

Until then, very warm temperatures and elevated humidity levels by mid-September standards are forecast today and Monday. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s and upper 80s to lower 90s today and Monday, respectively. Heat index values south of I-64 will be around 100 degrees. While just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, given the late season nature of the conditions, did issue a Special Weather Statement through 23z for areas south of I-64 highlighting the elevated heat conditions.

A frontal boundary just the northwest will attempt to move into the area today into Monday. This front may kick off a few stray showers or thunderstorms (15-25%) in northern parts of southeast MO and locations north of I-64 today and tomorrow. Overall, the great majority of the region will stay dry, and locations that do see rain will see 0.10" or less on average.

As mentioned earlier, the worst of the heat looks to be Tuesday through Thursday. The intensity of the upper-level ridging is very anomalous for mid-September. Ensemble guidance shows a 596-599dm ridge (95-99th percentile) centered over the Mid- South during this time. Temperatures at 850 mb will range from 19-22C which is also in the 95-99th percentiles. Actual air temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s (around record levels). With dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, peak heat index values around 103-108F are expected. A Heat Advisory will very likely be needed for most of all of the forecast area.

Beyond Thursday, ensemble guidance has trended slower from previous forecasts in breaking down the ridging over the region. This means high temperatures will still be in the lower 90s on Friday and the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. However, it appears dew point temperatures will draw down into the 60s, which will keep heat index values in the 90s. A frontal boundary will also move towards the area from the northwest, which will also kick off a few showers and storms during the heat of the day Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Mainly clear skies and calm winds are expected overnight, which may lead to some fog development. Latest guidance isn't as aggressive with it, so backed off some compared to the previous package. KCGI/KMVN most likely terminals to be impacted. Winds will primarily be out of the west-northwest through early-mid afternoon tomorrow and then gradually take on more of a north-northeasterly component late in the day into the evening. Can't rule out an isolated shower or storm tomorrow, mainly in southeast Missouri, but chances are quite low at this time.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.