textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers/isolated storms will offer varying amounts up to a quarter inch of rainfall during the daylight hours today. The NBM suggests a 40% chance of receiving a tad more than 1/4" along the TN border counties east of the Lakes.

- The warmest temperature forecast is Saturday, with highs near 80F. The NBM shows southern IL/southwest Indiana with about a 50/50 shot at hitting 80F, while the probability for southeast Missouri/western Kentucky is closer to 70% seeing 80F.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The front has sagged effectively thru the bulk of the FA, but overrunning showers/isolated storms persist. Its near vicinity linger will keep that chance going into/thru the day, with a morning lull followed by an afternoon (diurnal) surge, mainly along our southern-tier counties closer to the effective boundary. Nevertheless we remain on the north side of the boundary with northerlies at the surface so the strong/svr storm risk will remain to our south today. Pops eventually draw down tonight after the narrow ribbon of H8 forcing is removed with the system's full sweep passage, and surface high pressure moves in thereafter. That yields a couple more nice and cool and dry days before the weekend, with 60s and 40s prevailing til then.

The aforementioned high pressure system shifts to the east by Friday, allowing for some return flow to establish here. It drives our 30s/40s dew points right back up to/into the 50s and highs return to seasonal 70s. This occurs just in time/ahead of a quick moving cold front that will drop across the Ohio Valley and yield our next chance of showers/storms Friday night. The main wave of energy associated with its passage is modeled to track well off to our north and east, so we expect general risk storms here with the system's night-time passage.

The weekend offers the warmest of our days this package, with 80s looking to become more commonplace for highs on our warmest day, Saturday. That's bc our next system approaches late Saturday night so we get increasing clouds and our next chance of pcpn heading into Sunday. This one comes with a more robust wave passing here and a sharper long wave trof that drops its falling heights core across the OH/TN Valley upon said passage, so pops indeed spike a little better in the late Saturday night- Sunday time frame as the system completes its passage, and we'll keep an eye out for strong/svr storm potential as it nears in time. The post fropa cooldown starts the new work week back with pleasant low 70s/low 50s for a couple days before a mid week warmup poises to ensue.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Some sct lower end VFR clouds are present in the obs and on satellite and are expected to continue to lift through the afternoon to around the mid levels. The over all cloud deck looks to clear out after midnight tonight from northwest to southeast. Winds are northerly today and are around 6-9 kts. Winds will go light to calm overnight and through tomorrow morning.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.