textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected (60-80%) to move into the area from the northwest early this morning bringing a risk of damaging winds and hail.

- Additional storms may develop this afternoon (20-30% chance), but confidence in that is much lower and would likely be confined to southeast Missouri. If those develop, they could also become strong to severe before quickly moving south of the area.

- Drier air arrives Tuesday through much of the rest of the week, allowing for seasonable temperatures with little to no rain until next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An ill-defined surface low and associated frontal boundaries will early this morning, allowing for an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity (60-80% chance). A MCS developing over the Plains will likely race southeastward along the aformentioned boundary and instability gradient and on fairly strong northwest flow. All of those indicate that the MCS will in fact dive southeast into the Quad State, with the main impacts in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far western KY early in the morning or near sunrise. Mid-level lapse rates are analyzed upstream around 7C/km and are expected to steepen similarly overhead by 12-15Z (5-8am). Plenty steep enough for stronger updrafts and to produce instability values around 1500-2000J/kg. That, combined with effective shear values around 30-40kts, will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the area. DCAPE is analyzed around 1200J/kg, supporting much colder downdraft potential and cold pool development. This and faster storm motion supports a damaging wind threat. Large hails is also a possibility with the steeper lapse rates. As for timing (with radar showing the MCS developing), hi-res guidance has been very persistent with this complex arriving near sunrise in the western/northwestern counties. They also show another round firing by mid to late afternoon in southeast Missouri, but a lot of that will depend on how much destabilization occurs after the morning round. Heavy rainfall is possible with PWATs closer to 1.5 inches will support heavy rainfall, but quicker movement may help to limit flash flooding potential. This may become more of an issue where training sets up.

The chances for showers diminish Tuesday through at least Friday with less humid conditions in place. This will be a result of a cold front drifting south through the area and dry high pressure building in from the north. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s to low 80s through the whole forecast period, but the more noticeable drop in humidity will arrive around Tuesday.

The next chance of rain arrives next weekend as warm/moist southerly flow returns from the Gulf with flow around a high pressure system centered over the southeast CONUS. Some shortwave energy may pass close to the Quad State Friday night into Saturday, but that is truly beyond the predictability horizon at this range. If nothing else, the weekend looks like typical summertime afternoon pulse thunderstorms without any major focusing mechanisms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Main aviation impacts will be convection in the early morning hours. Guidance is in good agreement that SHRA/TSRA develops after 8Z with heavier activity and greatest restrictions likely between 12-15Z at PAH/CGI. Elsewhere confidence in impacts from SHRA/TSRA is lower. Improving conditions are expected after 15Z with decreasing convective activity as it pushes south. VFR prevails through the rest of the day Monday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.