textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record temperatures are possible today through Tuesday night.

- Good chances of showers and some thunderstorms can be expected late Tuesday night through Thursday night, with the best chances Wednesday into Thursday from 30% to 60% southeast to 60% to 95% north and west.

- Dry conditions and significantly cooler temperatures arrive for the end of the week and through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Breezy southwest winds and lots of sunshine will result in near record to record high temperatures today through Tuesday. High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with Tuesday a little warmer in the 88 to 95 degree range. We may also see record warm overnight lows as readings tonight only drop into the 60s, and Tuesday night into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Temperatures will cool down a little for mid week, but will remain significantly above normal, especially overnight lows.

Models remain fairly consistent with the return of unsettled conditions for mid to late week. A frontal boundary will sink into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Wednesday, meandering over our region into Thursday. A surface low will move along the front Thursday into Thursday night, finally pushing the front on through our area. The model blend still spreads chances of showers and thunderstorms across our region late Tuesday night into Wednesday, continuing through Thursday night. Friday is now dry, but there are some model differences that bring down confidence that precipitation will end by then, so some fine tuning is still likely. In the meantime, precipitation chances are highest along and north of the front, and by Wednesday afternoon range from 30-60% across the Pennyrile and Land Between the Lakes regions of west Kentucky, to 70-95% across the rest of the PAH forecast area. The pattern of lowest to highest chances from southeast to northwest will continue, with 30-65% chances Wednesday night, 20-70% Thursday, and 10-40% Thursday night.

Behind the frontal boundary Friday, windy conditions will develop with north to northwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts around 30mph Friday into Friday evening. This will help usher in much cooler air, with highs Friday in the middle 60s to lower 70s, and Saturday highs of 60 to 65 degrees. It will finally really feel like fall with lows Friday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and Saturday night in the 35 to 40 degree range. A return of southerly winds Sunday will begin a warming trend, with highs returning to around 70 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The TAFs are VFR. High pressure centered southeast of the region will bring steady W-SW winds around 5-10 kts under clear skies.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.