textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today through Thursday night, with 70-90% chances of showers and some thunderstorms across our area by midday today, and lesser chances tonight through Thursday night.

- A few storms today could become strong to severe, and on Thursday, a few strong to severe storms are possible across northern portions of our area.

- The passage of a cold front will bring very breezy conditions to our region Friday, and much cooler temperatures Friday through the weekend. A warming trend will begin Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Well above normal temperatures will continue across the region through Thursday, though it will not be as hot as the last couple of days. Highs today will be in the 80s, with readings Thursday in the middle 80s to 90 degrees.

Models show a frontal boundary, currently extending from northern Indiana into northern Missouri, sinking south and laying out from southwest to northeast across the PAH forecast area (fa) by this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will accompany this boundary, with convection spreading southeast across the PAH fa from 09z-18z. Chances will peak at midday at 70-90%, gradually decreasing from west to east in the afternoon. Chances overnight will decrease a little more with loss of heating, ranging from 15-30% south to 40- 50% north. On Thursday, a surface low moving through Missouri will lift the boundary north, and convection will be focused along and north of the boundary. Precipitation chances will be 30-60% mainly across our northern half of counties. By Thursday night, the low will be dragging a cold front across the PAH fa. The model blend produces 30-60% chances across most of our region, but keeps most of west Kentucky and extreme southeast Missouri dry with its passage. Rainfall totals will generally be from a quarter inch to around an inch, with localized higher amounts.

SPC includes our entire area in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms, with the best potential this afternoon. On Thursday during the late afternoon and evening, there a a Marginal Risk of severe storms north of the boundary, mainly along and north of a line from Du Quoin Illinois to Carmi to Winslow Indiana. The main concern with storms will be damaging wind gusts.

Behind the front, it will become quite breezy Friday with north to northwest winds at 15-25mph and gusts near 30mph. These winds will help usher in much cooler air, with highs Friday in the 60s, and Saturday in the 60 to 65 degree range. With calm winds Saturday, we will see our chilliest temperatures of the season in the 35 to 40 degree range, and patchy frost is not out of the question.

On Sunday, a return of southerly winds will begin a warming trend, with temperatures near normal by Monday, and a little above normal by Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

High clouds move in overnight, with a line of showers and thunderstorms reaching the Quad State early morning. The best chance of thunder should be with the line early to late morning from west to east. Vsby drops accompany heavier rain, along with 2500-3500ft cigs. Conditions are fairly likely to improve to VFR for most of the afternoon hours in the south, with northern terminals more likely to remain MVFR for clouds through the afternoon hours. During the evening, cigs/vsbys deteriorate, with IFR conditions becoming more commonplace at the end of the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.