textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures and humidity levels will start feeling more like summer-time today through early next week. Highs will average close to 10 degrees above normal with lots of mid to upper 80s pushing into the low 90s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are modest (30-60%) Friday and Saturday, mainly across the northern half of the area.

- More widespread chances (60-80%) for showers and storms are slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. The probability to receive at least 1" of rain is around 40-60% through next Wednesday night. Modest risks for some severe thunderstorms or locally heavy rain may emerge in this period, mostly likely Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

We start to see an increase in both heat and humidity today with highs rising to near or above 80 degrees everywhere, particularly in southeast Missouri. Residual capping and drier air in the low levels will try to hold off any showers/storms despite the increase in heat/moisture down low. However an upper wave does begin to approach in the evening and stretched out low-end pops around 00z in SEMO/SWRN IL and spread out low end chances across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA through the early morning Saturday. This won't be widespread activity and the probability at any given point is still less than 50 percent through about 10 am Saturday morning, but it is sufficient given the increasing moisture depth/WAA and modest height falls to think we will see a few showers. By Saturday afternoon taking most of the deterministic guidance at face value you will have potential for a little bit of surface-based instability over the eastern half of the CWA, but that will probably be partially dependent on earlier convective coverage (if any). Shear may be just sufficient for some marginal severe weather potential but it doesn't look particularly impressive in the current guidance suite.

By Monday strong troughing sets up over the north central US setting up strong and deep southwesterly flow in the lower levels leading to the start of a period of prolonged strong moisture return.. A shortwave trough brushes northwest of the area Monday with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Best upper height falls stay to the northwest but strong instability builds sufficient to spark a few showers and storms with chances likely lingering into the overnight amid a soupy airmass.

Tuesday both GFS/ECMWF guidance have trended into a solution that puts us in the right entrance region of a 100-110 kt upper jet. Steady warm air and moisture advection/persistent instability are producing quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity with no real capping inversion showing on forecast soundings. Still about 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE prints out in the low 70s dewpoints and fairly deep/rich low layer moisture. Low-level shear is quite modest with 850mb winds around 15-20 kts but deep layer shear may be sufficient to aid in some organized thunderstorm potential. The parallel to the front deep layer flow and PWATs of 1.7-1.8 inches, a saturated column with modest mid level lapse rates though with little to no capping suggests more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat, although we would need quite a heavy rain to lead to much flooding potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Weak convective complex over central Illinois -may- expand enough to impact MVN and EVV but it is looking less likely as it slides slowly eastward. Winds pick up out of the southeast and shift more southwesterly as the day progresses amid prevailing VFR conditions (outside of the limited convective threat). Showers and/or thunderstorms become possible late in the day and into the evening before becoming a little more likely in the pre-dawn hours Saturday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.