textproduct: Paducah

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper 50s to lower 60s dew points are forecast to be firmly entrenched by early next week.

- Until then, daily rain chances offer locally heavy downpour potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Best rain chances in the immediate short-term will be over our southwest...namely SEMO and adjacent parts of SWIL/Far SW KY. NAEFS E-SAT still has high 1.75" PW's pushing 90th percentile and mostly 2-5 year Return Intervals thru the pm hours Friday. Pops swell best as a weak area of low pressure develops just south of the Bootheel and drifts across the TN Valley tonight into this weekend. Little shear/flow otherwise means lightning and locally heavy downpours will be the primary associated storm hazards.

Dew points will begin drawing down tonight from the northeast. 66F dew points are already near our doorstep. They are projected to lower into the upper 50s tonight in SWIN/SE IL, with lower 60s working down over the remainder of all the area excepting the SEMO Ozarks counties, where they'll hang in the mid to upper 60s. They wobble back into/thru the upper 60s/nr 70F across SEMO and southern parts of WKY thru the day tmrw and right on into/thru the weekend, as daily pops linger in the hangup zone between the primary trof to the east and the Rex-blocked low to the west. Weak ripples of energy topping the Rex/ridge may activate that moisture into daily pops until the drier air wins out.

We see the drier air winning out by Tuesday as the ridging high pressure blocks overhead as the eastern trof goes off coast, and the draw-down is complete as everyone is in the 50s for dew points by Wednesday. Most of our 7 days will be spent in the 60s (night) and 70s (day) except for official highs that might touch the lower 80s and official lows that could touch the upper 50s at times.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

SCT-BKN diurnal bases from MVFR to low VFR will disperse with nightfall before another cloud advection/increase occurs late tonight into the planning phase hours of the forecast tmrw am. Light shower chances enter the forecast then with introductory prob30s and vicinity mentions upon their arrival from the south and west.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.

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