textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with warm days and cool nights will continue through the work week.

- Chances of showers return to the region this weekend, with the best chances Saturday evening into Sunday when a few thunderstorms will be possible. Additional chances will linger into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A weak cold front will wash out Thursday as it approaches the Quad State from the northwest, but it will lead to a surge of surface high pressure across the region Friday. That will switch winds to the east or southeast and lead to slightly less hot conditions. The warmest day of the week should be Thursday when there is a 40-60% of reaching 80 degrees over the western 2/3 of the area.

Guidance continues to bounce around on the QPF timing and location this weekend. It looks like the heavier rain, in the vicinity of half an inch will hold off until late Saturday evening through Sunday morning. There is some meager instability, so thunder has returned to portions of the region Saturday night and in the northeast on Sunday morning. Ensembles indicate that any rain over southeast Missouri Saturday afternoon or evening should be under a tenth of an inch.

This is a tropical remnant and the ensembles continue to indicate precipitable water values at or above 200% of normal for this time of year. That certainly is reason to keep an eye out for more significant rainfall. There is a greater than 30% chance of 1" or more of rainfall mainly over west Kentucky, and even a 5-10% chance of 2".

This system should push east of the Quad State Sunday afternoon, leaving the area dry later Sunday through much of Monday. There is a fairly strong consensus for upper-level energy to dive southeast through the Rockies and into the Plains by Tuesday. This system helps usher in a fairly amplified pattern, which should allow the system to hang out for a while. There is considerable uncertainty in what latitude the system will set up over the Plains, which will have significant impact on when it will bring precipitation to the Quad State. The NBM has small chance PoPs beginning Monday afternoon, with 40-50% chances Monday night into next Tuesday. There are some slight chances of thunder thrown in at times, as well, but there is a lot to settle out in the mass fields before we get concerned about the details of any convection.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The only concern to aviation is some fog potential late tonight mainly at KCGI, KEVV, and KMVN, similar to what has been seen the last several mornings.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.