textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Pattern favors near daily chances for showers and storms through the week, with highest chances focused today and Thursday night into Friday (40-60%).

- Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal today through Wednesday (mid to upper 80s). A brief warm-up on Thursday may allow heat index reading to exceed 100 before a cold front Friday ushers in somewhat cooler temperatures for next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

General troughiness will be in place over the next several days which will keep our convective chances going each afternoon into the early evening. Looks like chances may be highest today and then decrease in coverage by Tuesday as the trough axis shifts further east (although the ECMWF hangs onto the trough overhead through Wednesday which would keep greater midweek chances in place). If the trough does push further east though, it's possible that Tuesday and Wednesday end up with just isolated convection at best.

We may have a few strong to severe storms again today, although MLCAPE values should only reach up around 2000 J/kg (compared to the 3000-3500 j/kg yesterday). DCAPE values may still top out close to 1000 j/kg though so could still get some downbursts with a few storms. CAMs suggest fairly limited coverage, but they have struggled the past couple of days. Gut says coverage may not be quite as robust as Saturday but still more than what most CAMs suggest.

Guidance is hinting at a cold front sinking south into the Quad State region late in the week, increasing convective chances Thursday night through Friday. This may linger into next weekend, although ensembles favor drier conditions by next Sunday. Thursday might end up being the only day in the next 7 with heat index values exceeding 100. A nice change after the prolonged heat of the past week!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Some early morning fog will give way to VFR conditions shortly after 12z. Isolated convection this morning may impact KEVV and possibly KOWB through 15z. Otherwise, main chance for convection will be this afternoon and early evening. Winds will be light today, generally from the northwest aob 6 kts. There may be some additional fog late tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.