textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal today through Wednesday, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- The risk of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening remains steady at a 40-60% ahead of a strong cold front. Temperatures Thursday are projected to be 20 to 25 degrees cooler than Wednesday with conditions staying cool until late Saturday or Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The main item of concern this week is a frontal passage on Wednesday and associated rain/storm chances and the cooldown behind it. We will be in a fairly zonal flow aloft leading to warm days/cool nights through Tuesday. During the day Wednesday guidance continues to show a shortwave digging southeastward towards the region. This low spins up a cyclone to our northeast (and trending further northeast in the guidance consensus compared to 24 hours ago). The shortwave phases with another upper low over eastern Canada to produce broad and deep cyclonic flow over most of the eastern US centered over the upper Ohio Valley. This grabs air currently sitting over northern Canada and sends it this direction in our first encounter with semi-arctic airmass of the cool season.

Southwesterly winds pick up ahead of the frontal passage but this results in a source airmass for advection over Texas and limits available moisture return. Dewpoints there are in the mid 50s. This results in relatively limited but non-zero surface based instability with high LCL heights and 10-12 degree dewpoint spreads as showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the front. Coverage trends are down from 12-24 hours ago. Available entrainment factored MLCAPE is about 300 J/kg and the thermodynamic profiles look like it would be reasonable to expect parcels to struggle to fire. If convection can form there might be some wind risk given the deep mixing and available lower and deep layer shear (850 mb ~30kts or so).

Much colder air moves in behind the front with the source airmass currently running about 5 to 10 degrees F. Thursday still looks to produce northwest winds gusting 10-20 mph with temperatures in the 40s most of the day. Highs Friday look unlikely to break 50F as a reinforcing shot of cooler air pushes in. Saturday tries to warm into the 50s in most guidance but this might be a little optimistic given the current projected cloud cover and ongoing cold air advection. We get on the warmer side of the ridge axis by Sunday and should start to moderate temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 509 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Patchy ground fog should improve shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions and light southwest winds are anticipated through the day.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.