textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- The combination of gusty winds and dry conditions continues a heightened risk of fire as well as area lake recreation thru early this evening.

- Daily highs push 80F the rest of the week. The best chance of exceeding 80F CWA-wide is Thursday, at >90% chance.

- Best rain/storm chances come at the end of the week with peak pops around 90%. A stronger storm Friday afternoon/evening cannot be ruled out. - A wetter weekend pattern emerges with another chance for an inch or more cumulative rainfall. The NBM/DESI suggests a 40-60% chance we reach or exceed 1 inch of rainfall over the course of the weekend.

- Monday offers another chance of a strong or potentially severe storm with SPC outlining a 15% risk for severe across the CWA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Gusty winds and continued dry conditions keeps fire danger heightened thru early this evening. The south to southwest orientiation of the winds assists in heightening some recreational lake dangers as well. Both fire and lake wave height danger should subside with or shortly after sunset as their mid afternoon realized peaks of wind and RH diminish upon decoupling.

The influence of surface high pressure retains its extension across our area and is ridge centered to our south and east, while upper ridging to our west and translating overtop us with time helps heights rise here and hold strong/steady thru at least Thursday. The tangible sensible weather result will be another couple warm and dry days with continued south to southwest breeziness. Daily max temps push 80F with a solid bet for everyone exceeding 80F on the warmest day of the week on Thursday, with the NBM/DESI suggesting a greater than 90% chance of such.

Best rain/storm chances enter the forecast picture by week's end, as somewhat of a negatively tilted trof axis comes into play. It belies a more active and wetter pattern that sets up for us for a more sustained rainfall chance over the course of the weekend. A stronger storm Friday afternoon-evening cannot be ruled out, and the NBM/DESI suggests a 40-60% chance for weekend showers/storms to produce 1 inch or greater cumulative rainfall.

By day 7/next Monday, SPC outlooks the CWA in its entirety with a 15% risk of severe that extends from here at its northern apex to nearly the Gulf Coast as another more robust/nearer wave shoves its way completely across the MS Valley. Temperatures still run warm in the 70s/near 80 thru Monday, but presumably after that system passage a cool down is in order as we transition to a below normal temperature scheme for the 8-14 day extended outlook.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

High cirrus clouds will give way to FEW-SCT cu around 5 kft AGL on Wednesday. Gradient southwest winds will diminish to 5-7 kts tonight, increasing to 12-16 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts by midday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.