textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an enhanced risk of severe storms late this afternoon into this evening, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the main anticipated hazards.

- A high wind warning is in effect for portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, with a wind advisory elsewhere. 35-45 mph gusts will be common, with isolated higher wind gusts possible.

- Rain will transition to snow Sunday night into Monday before ending as much colder air plunges across the area. Little to no impactful accumulation is expected, but a light dusting of snowfall on grassy surfaces is possible.

- Winter-like cold temperatures will start the new work week. Lows Monday night will drop into the teens to lower 20's and with a northwest wind will translate to wind chills in the single digits to lower teens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A large scale trough is digging into the plains early this afternoon with a 150+ knot upper jet on the upshear side of the trough axis leading to further amplification. The amplified pattern is producing increasing southerly flow in the low levels with NAEFS showing increased V-component wind anomalies. A 992mb surface low is moving into NE KS/SE Iowa early this afternoon with a cold front that extends into southwest Missouri. Southerly flow will continue this afternoon with winds gusting to 40+ mph ahead of and behind the cold front. Some areas have gusted to between 50-60 mph where a high wind warning has been issued into the early afternoon. A wind advisory remains in effect for the entire area until 12Z Monday. It is possible the high wind warning may need to be expanding in area and time and we will continue to monitor.

An 18z sounding from SGF shows the cap lifting and eroding indicating the dynamic lift and moistening taking place to our west. Moisture advection has led to dewpoints in the low to mid 50s as of this writing. Continued moisture advection will occur ahead of a cold front with surface dewpoints expected to increase into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. A majority of the CAMs are now showing dewpoints reaching the lower 60s immediately along and ahead of the front. Higher dewpoints have resulted in modeled thermodynamic fields a bit higher than previous runs with MLCAPE values now near 500 Joules or higher. Shear remains exceptional with very strong wind magnitudes throughout the column. A broad area of 50+ knot 0-6km shear will be in place, with 0-1km shear 30-40 knots. Ingredients are certainly in place for an active severe weather event with the entire Quad State in an enhanced risk. The expected evolution is development of storms occurring across Missouri and quickly consolidating into a line as its moves across the Quad State. Guidance remains in good agreement on timing, with little change from earlier forecasts. Some CAMs show isolated development out ahead of the front and it remains to be seen how intense this activity will be. The thinking is that it may struggle given the capping inversion with the more intense updrafts along the front. Widespread damaging winds will remain the greater threat with winds of 60-70 mph. QLCS tornadoes will also remain a threat (some even strong) given the very strong low level shear. LCL heights are a bit high owing to the larger dewpoint depressions across the boundary layer and it remains to be seen how this impacts the tornado risk going forward. It may be just enough to keep us from seeing a higher end event on the tornado side of things.

The front will be quick to move through, with temperatures quickly falling behind it. By 12z 850mb temperatures will have fallen to between -10 and -14C. Some moisture on the back end of the system may fall as light snow on Monday, mainly across the north and east. Still expecting this to be non-impactful with any light accumulations mostly on grassy surfaces. The more impactful story will be the cold temperatures. Highs on Monday will remain in the 30s with lows dropping into teens. Brisk northwest winds will keep wind chills in the 20s during the day Monday and fall into the single digits to teens by Tuesday morning. Gradual warming occurs Tuesday and Wednesday and by Thursday temperatures will be back into the 70s. A disturbance may bring a chance for light precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday but amounts will be light. Much nicer weather carries from Thursday into the weekend with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong south winds will continue ahead of the front that will move across the terminals this afternoon into tonight. The front will bring with it restricted cigs/visbys with a line of convection. Some of this convection may be strong to severe. Behind the front, winds turn to the northwest and will continue to be strong. Time heights indicate MVFR cigs remaining a good portion of the night and into early Monday before returning to VFR.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ075-076- 080>082-084>086-088-089. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for ILZ077-078-083-087- 090>094. MO...High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ076-086- 087. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ100-107>112-114. IN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for KYZ001>022.