textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect this morning for areas along and south of I-64 in portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky.

- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region late Friday night into Saturday. A few strong to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard of concern.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Some of these storms may turn strong to severe with a greater risk for heavy rainfall and flooding issues. There is a 60 to 80% chance of exceeding one inch of rainfall.

- Temperatures will be at least 25 degrees above normal today, followed by a brief cool down this weekend. Near normal temperatures are not forecast until the latter half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A warm front has lifted north this morning with WAA aloft due to height rises. At the sfc, a shallow inversion in the boundary layer has allowed for areas of dense fog to develop where skies have been able to turn more clear. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory along and south of I-64. Further south, cloud cover has been more transient allowing for light winds to quickly erode the inversion with fog remaining more patchy.

Any fog quickly dissipates after sunrise Friday morning as temperatures continue to trend warmer. 850 mb temps between 13 to 15C translate to highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s with much of western Kentucky now progged to reach at least 80 degrees. Compared to normal, temperatures will be around 25 degrees above normal for this time of year! Although most of the day will be dry, the HRRR supports a slight chance of a few thundershowers developing in the afternoon once the convective temperature is reached. However, the main risk for widespread showers and thunderstorms does not arrive until late Friday night into Saturday morning when the CAMS all show a decaying MCS sweeping across the the FA from the west.

As for the severe weather potential, most of the convective machine learning guidance keeps the greater risk upstream towards central Missouri where the better instability and shear will be focused. The right entrance region of a 250 mb 120+ kt jet max will be located northwest of the FA with a 50 kt LLJ at 850 mb barley clipping the far northwest counties. Although MLCAPE will be around 600-800 J/kg, lapse rates will only be near 5.5 to 6.0 C/km as a 500 mb shortwave trough will still be located over Colorado at 12z Saturday. Given the meager kinematics and minimum in instability, SPCs marginal risk of severe weather seems reasonable with a few strong to severe wind gusts being the greatest hazard of concern. If the line were to trend slower, there would be better instability to work with. Some of the model guidance is also hinting at the possibility of isolated to scattered redevelopment in the afternoon as it will not be until Saturday evening when a cold front sweeps across the FA. While storms will be moving fast enough to mitigate the risk for widespread flooding issues, there is a 40 to 60% chance of exceeding one inch of rainfall locally with most locations seeing at least a half inch of QPF.

Behind the cold front, dry and cooler conditions return on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures quickly rebound back into the 70s on Monday as a warm front quickly lifts back north, allowing for an uptick in the humidity levels. WAA may trigger a few showers and elevated thunderstorms, especially Monday night. It will not be until Tuesday afternoon when a much greater risk of showers and thunderstorms begins to arrive as a 500 mb shortwave trough ejects northeast across the southern Plains. Rainfall amounts will be much higher with this system with a 60 to 80% chance of QPF exceeding one inch and a 20 to 40% chance for two inches. Confidence is still low on the severe weather potential, but many outcomes on the machine learning guidance continue to suggest the potential for a higher risk on Wednesday when a more potent cold front sweeps across the FA. Behind the front, temperatures return closer to normal for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Widespread diurnal CU will continue to spread from south to north through this afternoon. Cloud bases will initially around 2500-3500ft, but will gradually lift as boundary layer mixing continues. The best chances of seeing brief MVFR restrictions will be at CGI and PAH through 22z. Between roughly 09-15z, a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region, with TEMPO periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys and cigs. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be steady from the S-SW at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.