textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance) are possible today and tonight, possibly lingering in the KY Pennyrile on Thursday. While a few stronger storms are possible this morning (mainly hailers), the primary window for severe storms (low end threat) is later this afternoon through the evening. Damaging winds is the main concern.

- Hot temperatures return Sunday into next week. Unlike previous heat waves this summer, this will be a much drier heat with high temperatures warming well into the 90s. Heat index readings may exceed 100 by Tuesday, with the heat possibly continuing through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

An area of vorticity in the mid levels (500-700mb) will slide southeast from near St Louis into the lower Ohio Valley through this morning. Meanwhile, at the surface a warm front is draped across Missouri with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg situated just to our west. Most of the CAMs suggest convection will develop near or south of St Louis by 08-09z and then spread southeast into areas along and west of the Mississippi between 10- 15z. While the warm front likely remains to our west, MUCAPE reaches near 2000 j/kg combined with decent mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C and deep layer shear of 20-25 kts may support some large hail with these elevated storms. Overall confidence is low and while the severe threat is rather low this morning, it's non-zero.

Depending on how any possible morning convection and associated cloud debris play out will dictate how unstable the environment gets this afternoon and evening. Most CAMs now keep most our area dry through the afternoon, aside from the FV3. However, if morning convection doesn't materialize or exits the region soon enough, would tend to think at least southeast Missouri has a shot for some convection this afternoon. Also, there is still a decent signal for scattered convection sinking south across IL/IN this evening ahead of a cold front. The I-64 corridor and EVV Tri state probably have the best shot to see stronger storms with that activity before instability begins to wane further as we approach midnight and thereafter. Soundings suggest DCAPE exceeding 1000 j/kg which would support some damaging wind potential. The front may not clear all of west Kentucky until sometime Thursday afternoon, so additional isolated storms may be possible on Thursday mainly across the southern Pennyrile region.

After a brief return of higher humidity (dew points in the low 70s) today, a drier airmass will return behind the cold front Thursday afternoon and continue through the weekend. This will result in cooler nights again with lows dropping into the low 60s but warm afternoons with highs reaching the upper 80s.

Upper level ridging across the southwest CONUS will expand eastward into the OH/TN valleys Sunday into early next week. Medium range guidance has been in decent agreement keeping the ridge primarily in tact through at least mid or even late next week. Highs return to the 90s on Sunday, and likely will push the mid 90s heading into early next week. Humidity levels remain low initially, but will begin to creep up some especially by Tuesday. They shouldn't be anywhere near what we witnessed during previous heatwaves this summer though due to less evaporational transport from agricultural. Regardless, hot ambient temperatures will be present (possibly some of the warmest we have experienced this season). The LREF probabilities of MaxTs reaching at least 95 degrees are 50-70% by next Tues-Wed. So heat index readings may still exceed 100 several days next week beginning on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Convection will sink southeast across the western portions of our area this morning, impacting KCGI/KPAH. Additional convection may develop later this afternoon (mainly southeast Missouri) and also ahead of a cold front later this evening and overnight. We have highest confidence in the latter round impacting northern terminals and less confidence it will make it all the way south through west Kentucky. We should clear out early Thursday morning, which may set the stage for some fog development.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.