textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme heat warning conditions continue today with Heat Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.

- At least a few thunderstorms are expected tonight and this evening ahead of a cold front. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds the main threat.

- Shower and storm chances return Wednesday and Thursday with some strong/severe thunderstorm risk.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Dangerous heat and humidity persists today for one more day. Temperatures are running slightly ahead of where they were yesterday, with dewpoints sticking into the middle 70s. A cold front currently working through IA/IL should bring a bit of a respite tomorrow. In the meantime we will be watching for showers and thunderstorms in the soupy airmass ahead of the front.

Convective temperature is about 95 degrees and we are reaching that over SEMO and towering cu appear to be responding. There should be about 2000 J/kg available above a deeply mixed boundary layer if parcels can keep going. With that much cu this early in the day I tend to like the chances for a few storms to get going by 3 to 5 pm. There is a more organized convective complex over western IL ahead of the parent shortwave trough over NW Missouri. The HRRR analysis is about 150 miles too far west with the shortwave position and isn't resolving this convection well just yet. I think the overall solution with new convection over Missouri upscaling into an MCS over the I-64 corridor looks reasonable, but maybe speed it up about 3 hours from the HRRR solution which would put it in play for the region by 6 to 9 pm or so. Strong DCAPE/low-level inverted V soundings coupled with moderate westerly deep wind shear support an elevated risk for damaging wind/downbursts with any storms that get going, especially if they upscale into a mature MCS.

The front should be through the area fast enough to knock everyone below heat advisory tomorrow. With a little less heat and humidity behind the front. By Wednesday the subtropical jet sinks a little further south which helps pull some of the soup back into the area giving us shower and thunderstorm chances. A more organized shortwave remains on track for Thursday. We remain a little concerned about severe weather potential with this feature with abundant moisture/instability coupled with a favorable shear pocket. Some window for severe appears possible Wednesday through Thursday and CSU-ML and CIPS analogs continue to show some clustering of potential there as well. Wind would be the primary concern.

ECMWF/GFS both show a stronger longwave trough for late next weekend that is still trying to introduce cooler/drier conditions but we are still yet to see a clear cold frontal passage show up in the current deterministic runs and we maintain max temps in the mid 80s through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Late afternoon thunderstorm activity is diminishing for the early evening. A boundary moves through late evening with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front (highest chances in the north). With calmer winds in the south, some vsby drops near dawn are possible, especially for climatologically favored sites. Cigs may approach or lower into MVFR in the north early morning. Winds shift to northwesterly tomorrow around 6-10kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.