textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Wind Advisory is in effect through sunset over most of southeast MO, southern IL, and southwest IN, and a portion of northwest KY, while a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley.

- An area of thunderstorms is still expected to move southeast across much of the region late this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible, primarily along the Interstate 64 corridor through southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

- Very heavy rainfall rates may result in flash flooding this evening into the early overnight hours over southwest Indiana. There's a 15-25% chance of 1 in/hr or greater rainfall rates over those locations. A flash flood watch has been issued as a result.

- Additional showers and storms are expected (40-70%) Thursday and Thursday night over the Missouri Bootheel and west Kentucky, with lesser chances farther north and west. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out over west Kentucky in the afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 839 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Continuing to monitor vigorous supercells over central IL and IN being nudged by an upper level system that is working this way. Continual low level theta-e advection on breezy southwest winds have kept MLCAPEs around 2000 J/kg and that will likely persist through the next few hours while the storms slowly approach. VWX VWP is about 340 m2/s2 of effective SRH. The 850mb jet roughly sustains current intensity through the next few hours and the storms look like they very well could continue to produce a tornado threat as they move into southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana by 11pm/midnight or so.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A very strong storm system passing through the central CONUS through Thursday, will keep very strong winds in place late this afternoon through early this evening. The pressure gradient will then relax later tonight into Thursday morning as the low lifts northeast of the area. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm for portions of SEMO, southern IL and SWIN with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for the Lakes of western KY through the same time period. For the Wind Advisory, wind gusts to 45 mph are expected with probabilities pushing in the 60-90% range in the Wind Advisory. Winds will be a bit lower over western KY even though gusts will still reach into the 30-40 mph range this afternoon and evening.

Severe storms are expected to develop north of the Quad State this afternoon in a highly favorable environment for severe weather. Instability values north of the area are expected to be in the 2000- 3000 J/kg range with deep layer shear values progged to be around 40- 50kts!! As these storms sag south late this afternoon into this evening and approach the northern portion of the CWA in southern IL and southwest IN the instability is expected to decrease to some extent. In fact, guidance suggests that instability would drop down closer to around 1500-2000 J/kg as the line or even semi-discrete storms in the line sag south into the area. That is plenty to keep a severe storm threat in place for areas north of the I-64 corridor, especially with deep layer shear still remaining around 35 to 45 kts. At least a portion of the 0-3km (30-40kt) shear vectors appear to be aligned orthogonal to the line of storms as they are forecast to be out of the west to west-northwest.

That would introduce not only a damaging wind threat, but also QLCS spin-ups along the line. 0-3km helicity is very high to our north, around 400-500 m2/s2! While it does drop off as wind fields gradually weaken to the south helicity is still around 200-300 m2/s2. Again, just pointing to the continued concern for spin up tornadoes. A couple of the high res models keep enough instability south of the line to keep it going later into the night, but most have a diminishing trend. I wouldn't be surprised if it stay strong to severe a little longer than is currently painted out by the models. The slight risk and marginal farther south is definitely warranted. All modes of severe all possible with a heavier weight on wind damage and spin up potential.

Flash flooding may occur over southwest IN as rainfall rates may be greater than 1 in/hr (15-25%) with RFC FFG being around 1.5 in/hr in the urban areas.

The associated frontal boundary will linger across SEMO into western KY through Thursday afternoon. Depending on how much cloud cover lingers and exactly where the boundary is located, there could be yet more severe potential Thursday afternoon. If the instability of 1000-1500 J/kg is realized, then deep layer shear values of 25-30kts would give a severe weather threat Thursday afternoon, mainly across western KY. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats along with heavy downpours.

A more unsettled stretch of weather is still expected to arrive over the weekend into early next week. The added precipitation will help keep temperatures a bit cooler (low to mid 80s),but widespread totals of 1-3 inches of rain will be possible through that time period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Strong southwesterly winds will diminish somewhat through the night but remain stronger than your typical June overnight flow. Thunderstorms are expected to become a factor in the 05-09z range at most terminals, with the highest probabilities around EVV/OWB where more severe convection will be possible.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ Thursday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...None.