textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory has been extended through Thursday for daily heat index values of 103 to 109 degrees. Perry County, IL has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for daily heat index values of 107 to 113 degrees.

- Daily rain chances return the middle of the week, with Wednesday evening and Thursday evening having the greatest risk at a 40-50% chance. There is the potential for a few storms to be strong along with heavy rainfall.

- Rain chances around 20% linger into next weekend with heat index values remaining elevated near 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A ridge of high pressure to the south will allow for ample hot and humid conditions today to start off the week as southerly return flow continues to keep dewpoints well in the 70s. Daily high temperatures in the low to mid 90s will translate to heat index values of 103 to 109 degrees. Have extended the Heat Advisory into Thursday, while Perry County, IL has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for heat index values of 107 to 113 degrees.

While the heat is the main headline, a series of shortwaves begin to round the ridge as early as Tuesday night, and continue through the end of the week. The ECMWF/NAM are more aggressive compared to the GFS/CMC in bringing rain chances associated with a MCS in sooner. Meanwhile, the consensus on the NBM remains drier, supporting Wednesday evening and Thursday evening having the greatest risk with a 40-50%. A few stronger storms will be possible with ML guidance remaining consistent in showing some low severe probabilities. However, the better synoptic setup to support severe weather remains more north and east at this time. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible where storms develop with upwards a half to one inch.

By Thursday night into Friday, a cold front eventually washes out and becomes stationary across the FA, keeping lingering rain chances around 20% in the forecast into next weekend. While some minor relief from the heat is expected, heat index values are still progged to remain elevated near 100 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Guidance has trended stronger with south winds overnight, so no fog is forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ075>078-081>094. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ080. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Thursday for INZ081- 082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>022.