textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe storms this evening, includes a low but non-zero (5% or less) chance of damaging wind gusts or possibly a tornado.

- SPC has another marginal risk of strong-potentially severe storms lingering Friday, but the main risk will be to our south and east.

- Turning colder this weekend into next week; the coldest temperatures will be Sunday with highs only in the 30s.

UPDATE

Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

60F dew points have entered the southern reaches of the FA. The WAA game is strong, and it needs to be, because time/height cross sections suggest continued cloud cover inhibiting the temperature climb. This will retard the already compromised instability/parcel buoyancy forecast, with MUCAPE modeled to peak somewhere in the 200-400 Joules range over SEMO this evening, a slight downtick from earlier modeling. It'll be a short sliver of time between 00-06z that exists in coincidence with the high shear environ for our severe wx potential...we'll see how it plays out as there is some concern with the parallel orientation of the shear field wrt convective line development. Nevertheless, H8 winds to 60+KTs won't take much to draw down, offering "severe" shower potential even for damaging wind gusts. Outside of storms, expect gradient winds to crank up this afternoon/evening too, shy of Advisory criteria but breezy nonetheless.

Some 12Z data suggests the Friday chance is overdone, and chances including severe storm chances should wash after fropa late tonight-early Friday. Nevertheless we remain in a marginal risk in our south/east, at least until the blended/ensemble modeling catches up. After the system finally sweeps thru in entirety, we'll see 1/2 to maybe 1 inch totals in general so this will likely not be causing any broader flooding issues.

Much colder air is brought in this weekend and extends into next week, more like what January usually feels like. The coldest temperatures will be Sunday, when highs struggle into/thru the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will sweep through the region overnight, mainly between 03-12z. Ahead of the front, gusty gradient winds from the south will gust to 25-35 kts, and locally higher gusts cannot be ruled out under thunderstorm activity. Following the passage of the precipitation, rain and thunder chances will end, with VFR cloud bases expected outside of MVN. Gradient will will become W-NW and relax as well.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.