textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather finishes out this work week.

- Rain chances return this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures closer to normal greet the new week with continued daily rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A persistence strategy, steady-as-she-goes approach is best in the near term with our continued high pressure dominated forecast. That means daily highs around 80F thru Friday, a good dozen or so degrees above climatological norms. Mild lows will run 5-10F above climo., bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Rain chances make their emergence in the forecast this weekend, which heralds a wetter period extending into next week with daily rain chances prevailing. The first half of the weekend still looks dry, with most model members holding off on appreciable rain chances til Saturday night (and Sunday). The chance occurs coincident with the opening up and flattening out of a weak wave of low pressure that makes its way across the MS Valley over the course of the weekend. With little instability to tap, we're looking at probably 1/2 inch or less cumulative rainfall totals, mostly in the 06z-18z Sunday time frame; a little before and a little after not-withstanding.

A brief pause/lull in chances occurs starting out the new week, before a broad synoptic low winds out of the Rockies and Plains states and tracks our direction. Its current tracking takes the parent low center to our south, which is pinched on both sides by high pressure ridging in an inverted omega-like blocking look to the pattern; the net effect will be more clouds/pcpn chances daily and temperatures a little closer to seasonal norms with highs in the lower 70s. The further southward dive of the low means rain totals on this morning's 12Z runs have basically halved from the previous runs...but we still may end up verifying the projected "above normal" rainfall for the period with the daily rain chances continuing. Best such chances at this time look to be Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region with high pressure in control. A subtle increase in the pressure gradient overnight should help to mitigate fog concerns, with winds remaining light & variable at most terminals. The column has also been running drier compared to model guidance due to more robust mixing this afternoon. South winds increase to 6-8 kts on Thursday by midday with diurnal heating.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.