textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend through Thursday will culminate with a return to record or near record temperatures. There is a 30-90% chance of high temperatures reaching 85 degrees on Thursday, with the highest chances in the Ozarks and lowest in the northeast.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night, peaking at a 60-70% chance after midnight through Friday morning. A few storms may be strong along I-64, but the better severe weather risk is focused north of the region.

- Temperatures will be roughly 25 to 30 degrees cooler on Friday with a 40-50% chance of low temperatures reaching 32 degrees Saturday morning for areas along and north of I-64.

UPDATE

Issued at 440 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Surface high pressure continues to drift from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward, allowing for winds to shift to easterly today and temperatures to warm. Cloud cover has limited some of the warming potential with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with a couple degrees of warming left for the day. RHs have trended a little bit higher, but should still bottom out in the 20-30% range for much of the Quad State. Some localized minimum areas below 20% may have some elevated fire weather concern, but the lack of wind speed is a limiting factor.

Broad scale ridging expands over most of the country, with a transition to SSW winds tomorrow allowing for surging temperatures midweek. Highs reach the mid 70s tomorrow (near to just above 80 in the Ozarks), with temperatures headed towards daily records, possibly even near monthly records, on Thursday, with highs up to the low to mid 80s, and near 90 in the Ozarks.

A smaller scale disturbance brings slight chance-chance PoPs to northeastern portions of the Quad State late Wednesday night. A few rumbles of thunder are possible with this system as well. Better precip chances arrive Thursday night into Friday as a strong cold front works its way southward through the Quad State. A marginal risk of severe weather covers the northern portions of the Quad State for late Thursday night, though the late night timing will leave a less favorable environment for severe storms relative to areas further north which have the storms move through during the evening. QPF looks to remain limited to around a quarter inch or less, with higher amounts tied to thunderstorm activity.

Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front with highs back down to the 50s-60s Friday. Gradient winds will be breezy ahead of and behind the front with gusts to around 30 mph. Some locations have around even odds of dropping to below freezing early Saturday morning, mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. A large area of high pressure moves through over the weekend, with temperatures warming late weekend as winds return to a more southerly component. CPC outlooks heavily favor above normal temperatures (especially the 6-10 day) and lean towards above normal precipitation, suggesting more active weather is favored for the end of March/start of April.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Gridded time/height cross sections indicate bases will be most prevalant in SCT-BKN fashion AOA H7 thru midday tmrw, after which some lower SCT-BKN diurnal VFR bases are possible. South winds will pick up tmrw and may include some gusts at times during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.