textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost or freeze conditions are anticipated tonight. Widespread freeze/killing frost conditions are anticipated overnight tonight into Sunday.

- Temperatures trend above normal Monday through Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

- There is a 20-30% chance of sprinkles or light rain showers Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as another shot of cooler air is expected to move into the area later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Temperatures are cool tonight with broad high pressure centered over the Plains driving our weather. The current freeze warning/frost advisory split still looks reasonable for tonight and will not make any changes. It is a little warmer over southeast Missouri right now where 4-5kft stratus persists but the trend is towards clearing and the odds seem to support getting cleared out.

Tonight the ridge axis will set mostly on the area with strong subsidence aloft. All guidance also brings in very dry sfc-850mb or so air and I won't be surprised to see dewpoints mix down this afternoon and a very supportive environment for heavy dew/frost overnight tonight. NBM overnight lows are consensus 31-33 degrees which is a little lower than some of the raw model output but I think it has the right idea given how much subsidence/dry air and clearing is approaching. For messaging simplicity just converted the freeze watch to a freeze warning for all 58-counties.

00z deterministic GFS is a little more aggressive with moisture return and the right rear quadrant of a jet max on Wednesday bringing some rain/storm chances. Pretty much everything else, including GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with this, will be worth watching the trends for the specifics as the GFS solution yields at least a little bit of instability. Both deterministic GFS/ECMWF and available ensemble members then drag a large deep layer cyclone over the Great Lakes region that sends cooler air this direction. The source airmass is not especially frigid but it looks to put our highs into the 50s by the end of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Winds should be relatively light out of the north overnight before likely becoming calm by dawn. Light northerly winds are forecast for Saturday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Saturday for ILZ075-076-080>082- 084>086-088. Freeze Warning from 11 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for ILZ077-078-083-087- 089>094. MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>110. Freeze Warning from 11 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ111-112-114. IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM CST /midnight EST/ Saturday to 8 AM CST /9 AM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST /9 AM EST/ Saturday for INZ081- 082-085>088. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for KYZ001>022.