textproduct: Paducah

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather returns Thursday through Saturday. The best chance at convection is Thursday evening and overnight at around 40- 60%. Some earlier storms may be strong to severe.

- 90 degree highs return by early next week with heat indices pushing into the low 100s once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Aloft a cut off low slowly spins to our SE while shortwave ridging passes over the Great Lakes. At the sfc high pressure is centered over the northeast. Clear and calm conditions overnight and this morning is leading to some fog development early this morning. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80s rising to upper 80s to near 90 tomorrow.

Tomorrow and Thursday broad longwave troughing sets up over the central CONUS. Thursday a pocket of energy rounds the base of the trof and moves a northern cold front closer to the area. Thursday evening and overnight has the best chance (40-60%) of convection primarily over western portions of the area. Shear and instability quickly fall off after 00Z but any earlier storms could at least be strong with 20-25 kts of shear and 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Precip chances continue through Saturday afternoon with more perturbations in the flow, though to a slightly lesser extent (20- 40%) and with less strong to severe capability.

Temperatures stagnate in the upper 80s to pushing 90 through Saturday. Though things start to warm up again into early next week into the lower 90s. The NBM probability of hitting at least 90 on Monday is >60% and the LREF probability of a heat index of at least 100 is 40-60%. Tuesday the NBM probability of at least 90 is similar to Monday, while the LREF probability of a heat index of at least 100 is slightly higher at 50-70%.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Time/height cross sections indicate the diurnal cu field will clear by mid evening with the loss of its insolar fuel. Numerical guidance suggests T/TD spread nears saturation late tonight, so patchy fog with restricted vsbys is offered; there may be restricted bases early tmrw am as insolation burns/lifts the fog out, albeit briefly, before returning to VFR conditions in entirety with FEW-SCT diurnal bases 4-5K FT AGL by and during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.

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