textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record high temps will combine with resurging humidity to produce headline (Advisory) heat thru mid week.

- It will remain warm/humid Thursday-Friday as well, with a threat of triple digit heat indices lingering thru week's end.

- Slightly cooler/less humid conditions appear with small rain chances by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The dry air punch was nice this morning, but it's short-lived. 70F+ dews just to our south overspreading the region now will soon complete the transaction. Thence, the heat comes in earnest, with the entire area experiencing triple digit indices thru the mid week and headlined accordingly. Should Thursday be added as well? It does not look like there is collaborative stomach for that push today, but HI's are similar, if mostly just shy of the hard single day criteria. The NWS Heat Risk map reflects some contraction Thursday that begins a trend that carries on into/thru the weekend, even as we do have signals in the model guidance that we remain above normal...probably we fall off the mid week week extremes enough to preclude headlines (eventually--by the weekend) but we'll see as it plays out. Already, today's guidance numbers are higher/pops are lower vs the preceding day vs the preceding day, so we're trending warmer/drier even with cooling; something to monitor. Probably the height falls and reemerging pops by early next week pushes us out of the extremes. Until then, SEE the next 2-3 days of record or near record breaking temps:

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 15 STATION FCST HI RECORD HI/YR CGI9696/2025 MDH 96 106/1939 EVV 98 99/1939 PAH97 102/1939 POF98 101/1939

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 16 STATION FCST HI RECORD HI/YR CGI 95 99/2019 MDH 96 101/1927 EVV 9797/1897 PAH9797/2019 POF98 101/1927

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 17 STATION FCST HI RECORD HI/YR CGI 96 96/2019 MDH96 102/1927 EVV9996/1927 PAH9698/1939 POF98 101/1927

One could make a duration argument for the Advisory to run thru Friday, as we maintain triple digit HI production thru then; the upper ridge continues to run strong in the mid-upper 590s DM (H5) thru the week's end. But after that, it is muddied up enough by low pressure areas barrelling into it over the weekend from both the north/west and south/east to drop her into the 580s by early next week. Temps should cool off their peaks (while remaining above normal) while smallish pcpn chances reemerge in the forecast with this synoptic pattern evolution.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The TAFs are VFR. There should be enough wind overnight to prevent fog formation. South southwest winds will pick up with mixing in the morning, and will gust 14-17kts through the afternoon at all sites.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-100. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ Tuesday to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ004-005-007>022. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>003-006.