textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front is parked roughly bisecting the area this afternoon. A few rain showers may dot the landscape but amounts are expected to remain light.

- Colder temperatures are expected tomorrow and Thursday with temperatures trending warmer for Friday into the weekend, with readings likely to be closer to normal. Normal highs are in the mid 40s and normal lows are in the upper 20s.

- There is an increasing signal for warmer than normal temperatures next week, with latest trends suggesting at least a 50% chance at temperatures reaching 60 degrees by Feb 11-12!

UPDATE

Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A weak surface low pressure center at about 1017 mb is slowly moving east across the area. Drier air down low seems to be winning the low clouds/rain battle with some light radar returns in the northeastern part of the area, and more showery looking features over Tennessee. Surface observations are mostly dry however. Temperatures have warmed to the point that actual surface temps appear warm enough to prevent frozen precip impacts even if things end up heavier than expected. The shower activity in Tennessee looks like the best bet for measurable precip over the area as it moves over parts of west Kentucky through this afternoon.

Cold air moves in behind this system once again with highs expected to struggle to exceed freezing tomorrow and only slightly above on Thursday. As heights rise through the weekend temperatures should moderate with highs working into the lower 50s. There is reasonable agreement in ensemble and deterministic guidances for a surface ridge to set up over the southeast US early next week that puts us in stronger return flow and highs might work into the upper 50s or 60s in such a pattern towards the end of the current forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR cigs continue to move through approximately the eastern half of the Quad State early this evening. A slight chance of precipitation remains early evening in the east. Dense fog in the southern Kentucky Pennyrile will continue for just an hour or two longer. Cigs lift to VFR later in the evening/overnight hours. Winds remain northerly through the TAF period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ009-012- 017-022.