textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly across western Kentucky.

- Temperatures and humidity levels will continue to increase this weekend into next week, with heat index values near 100 degrees today, and 100 to 105 degrees Sunday through Wednesday.

- Dry conditions return Sunday through Tuesday before more unsettled weather arrives for the latter half of the week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

An ongoing complex of stratiform rain with embedded thunder over SEMO will continue to decay through early this morning to start the weekend. By this afternoon, a H5 shortwave associated with a broad upper level trough may initiate additional showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be fairy isolated and confined to mainly western Kentucky, but did bump up NBM PoPs to a broad 20-30% chance as the 0z CAMs are hinting at disorganized convection developing during peak heating. While most locations will remain dry, a few spots could pick up a quarter to half inch with localized heavy downpours. Combined with an increase in cloud cover today, peak heat index values now look to remain near 100 degrees. Skies quickly clear out tonight with model soundings supporting the potential for some patchy ground fog with a shallow inversion developing overnight.

As a broad H5 ridge of high pressure builds east on Sunday, drier conditions combined with abundant sunshine and southerly return flow will yield more hot and humid conditions. Heat index values by the NBM are now progged to rise between 100-105 degrees Sunday through Wednesday, which would meet the 4 consecutive day criteria (100 degrees) for a Heat Advisory. However, daily shower and thunderstorm chances quickly return by Wednesday which creates some uncertainty as the other scenario would focus on the 1 day criteria (105 degrees) for Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, heat headlines will likely be needed in the near future. Daily rain chances continue through the end of the week as a cold front eventually provides relief with high temperatures trending out of the lower 90s into the upper 80s by Friday. Some of the ML guidance is hinting at some severe weather potential Wednesday into Thursday, but it is highly contingent on the timing of the front with the better kinematics progged north of the FA at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected today with a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Probability is too low to include TAF mention, but western Kentucky will have the greatest risk of seeing some coverage. Otherwise, patchy ground fog is possible towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will be south between 4-8 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.