textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger will continue this afternoon across the Ozark Foothills into far southwest Illinois. Elevated fire danger is likely again Saturday afternoon in the Ozark Foothills.

- There will be a small chance (10-20%) of light rain across the Evansville Tri-State Saturday night, followed by more significant chance of rain (50-80%) Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Some snow may mix with the rain north of Interstate 64 early Monday morning, but no snow accumulation or travel impacts are expected.

- A major pattern change to mild and unsettled conditions is likely for the second half of next week. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely (50-70%) each today beginning Wednesday, bringing much-needed soaking rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

High pressure sprawled across the eastern CONUS will bring very mild and sunny weather to the area today and Saturday, with temperatures running 10-20 degrees above normal. Humidity values will continue to draw down to 20-35% this afternoon, with the lowest values across the Ozark Foothills into far southwest IL. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue in this area through late this afternoon, and a Special Weather Statement in in effect highlighting this risk. Similar concerns are expected on Saturday in the Mark Twain NF sector of the Ozark Foothills.

A very subtle H5 trough, surface low, and associated cold front will race across the I-70 corridor Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This will bring a very small (10-20%) chance of light rain to the Evansville Tri-State and points north, but only a trace or a hundredth or two of precipitation is expected. The more noticeable change will be a big swing downward in temperatures back to near normal early March values, which will be 15-20 degrees colder than Saturday's temperatures!

The frontal boundary will settle just south of the region by Sunday night, and another disturbance will pass along it Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing another round of light to moderate rain. The concern of a few days ago that thermal profiles that could be cold enough to support impactful snow or freezing rain has ended, as temperatures across the region look to stay above freezing. There may be periods when snow mixes with rain early Monday morning north of I-64, but again, no accumulations or travel impacts are expected.

As we turn the page from winter to spring, a major pattern change is in store for most of the country. The persistent western CONUS ridging/eastern CONUS troughing regime that brought very dry conditions this winter will flip. With troughing setting up over the west and ridging across the east. This will mean a transition to a very unsettled/stormy pattern, especially after Monday. Additionally, temperatures will again warm well above normal, trending about 15-20 degrees above average by late next week, along with dew point temperatures nearing 60 degrees.

It is actually pretty difficult to suss out the specifics at this range due to model timing differences, but what is likely is that the region will be under active SW flow in the mid- levels, and a series of shortwaves and surface disturbances will pass across the region almost on a daily basis. This will bring a good daily chance of showers and thunderstorms (50-70%) Wednesday through the end of the week at least. The biggest impact will be the return of much-needed rain, and the latest ensemble guidance is showing a good chance (60-90%) of at least 0.50" of rain during the Tuesday through Thursday period, and a 30-70% of 1" of rain or greater. The highest values at this time look be across northern parts of southeast MO, southern IL, and southwest IN.

Peeking ahead at the 7-10 day window, the active weather pattern looks to continue, and there is some growing concern that with continued rounds of moderate to heavy rain, some flooding issues may eventually develop, especially the concern of river flooding with a such a broad area that could see significant rain and snowmelt. Some of the HEFS extended guidance is starting to depict large rises on some of the main stem rivers, but since current levels are quite low, there is a large buffer before concerns for impactful flooding develop.

Additionally, this pattern could support some episodes of severe weather, and SPC and machine learning guidance is starting to pick up on the potential for some severe weather in the Day 7-10 window (March 6-10). Again, there is a long way to go, and it is possible that any severe convection will avoid our region completely. The best thing to do is stay up to date on the forecast as we go through the next 4 to 6 days when the picture will become a lot clearer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The TAFs are VFR. Under clear skies, steady SW winds around 5-10 kts will continue this afternoon before relaxing to 4-6 kts overnight. After 12z Saturday, winds will become light and variable through the remainder of the forecast period.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.