textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- The warm weekend forecast continues across the Quad State, and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over southeast Missouri on Sunday.

- A significant severe weather episode remains possible Monday afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The weekend period continues to be warm and mostly dry ahead of a potentially major severe storm event. Can't rule out a few showers or storms over the Ozark foothills on Sunday afternoon but coverage looks isolated. Otherwise, expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Most of the attention focuses on Monday with all guidance continuing to support a possible high-end severe weather event. The upper level ridge atop the Quad States begins to break down as height falls approach the area on Monday. A mid/upper level jet max moves east out of the four-corners Monday morning with a shortwave developing across the central plains and moving northeast into Monday night. The thermodynamic environment will become primed by Monday afternoon. Increasing mid level lapse rates associated with an EML moves overhead with a rich boundary layer airmass moving poleward characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. This would support SBCAPE values in the 3000-4000 J/Kg range over southeast Missouri, with these values dropping off with eastward extent. CAPE values decrease area wide after 00z with the onset of nocturnal cooling. This coincides with more than adequate shear to support organized deep convection with 0-6km shear of 40-50 knots and 0-3km SRH over 300 m2/s2.

There are still some questions that need to be ironed out with regards to convection evolution but the environment that will be in place will be primed to support severe convection. The trend over the past few runs of guidance continues to push the shortwave and parent low further north which places the better kinematic support further north. The main questions are when and where does convective initiation take place. The EML may be tough to overcome at least initially given the lack of appreciable forcing aloft (most of this is further northwest), and BL convergence. However, the parameter space will be highly supportive of supercells with all severe weather threats including large hail, damaging winds, and strong, long-track tornadoes.

At this range, the synoptic pattern would generally support storm development taking place north and west of the area with the potential for supercells across southeast Missouri. This activity would then likely consolidate into a line that moves across the rest of the area in the late afternoon and evening. Most guidance generally supports timing to be in the 00Z-06Z time frame but this could still vary as we move closer to the event. Any initial supercells will contain large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for long-track tornadoes. How long that mode persists is a bit uncertain, but the eventual line that develops will favor a higher damaging wind threat and continued tornado threat.

Finally, the frontal boundary lingers into Tuesday as an upper level disturbance traverses the area. Likely PoPs (60-80%) are advertised Tuesday afternoon with the higher chances across west Kentucky. Models have shown a substantial uptick in instability along the front although shear, especially low level shear, is much lower. As a result, a few strong to severe storms may be possible Tuesday PM. High pressure moves in behind this front mid week supporting a period of near to below normal temperatures. A southern stream disturbance is advertised to develop across the southern plains and move east late week into the weekend. Some rain showers may reach southern portions of the area by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A VFR forecast next 24 hours. CU field with increasing bases to around 3-4kft expected through the afternoon with skies becoming clear this evening. Increasing upper level clouds from the southwest are expected late tonight into Sunday morning. Northeast winds up to 10 knots this afternoon will decrease to less than 5 knots overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.