textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Sharply colder air is on the way with a front plunging through by midday today. The coldest temperatures are expected tonight into Sunday. Wind Chill values will be below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place for dangerously cold wind chills.

- The cold is short lived as temperatures moderate mid week and come up to the 50s Wednesday and possibly a few 60s on Thursday.

- Rain chances come back into the forecast Wednesday night into Thursday as showers and potentially even thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A mega cold front is on the way this morning. The low that brought yesterdays weather shifted our predominant flow northwesterly across most of the region already, but the low 30s near St. Louis and Kansas City give way rapidly to mid 10s and single digits across northern MO and IA. With nothing stopping it and the upper ridge behind it amplifying over the west expect it will make quick work of its transit, likely arriving by midday and dropping our temperatures sharply upon its arrival. Our daily max Ts will almost certainly be in the morning hours and did a lot of hand manipulation of the temperature forecast to get it more representative to obs trends. Gusty winds persist for several hours behind the front with exceptional cold advection. Wind chills drop below zero by late evening and expanded the Dangerously Cold Weather Advisory for a couple counties but left the start time intact at 06z. The threshold is -5 in the northwestern half of the CWA roughly and 0 everywhere else, which should be well in hand.

The density/sludginess of the forced cold air will result in a very shallow frontal slope and a broad area of weak lift in the lowest 150 mb of the atmosphere. This may result in patchy drizzle which would present as freezing drizzle on the cold surfaces. I don't think the amount will be sufficient to warrant a freezing drizzle advisory at this point but will up the mention messaging-wise a bit and have included in the new forecast across mainly the southwestern 2/3rds of the area. Further northeast into SWIN and vicinity jet-level lift should be sufficient in the right exit region of a departing jet-max to give more of a snow solution, although the lift looks fleeting and QPF/snowfall amounts remain consistent in deterministic and ensemble guidance at levels too low for much impact.

Sunday max temps struggle to reach 20 and overnight lows Sunday night all mostly fall to the single digits. Wherever the center of the 1042 mb high falls I imagine we will tank down below zero, or certainly we have the potential to do that, based on the pattern/dryness/radiational cooling potential.

Fortunately the extreme cold is short-lived and this ridge axis shifts to the southeast and into a southwesterly return flow pattern by early next week. The predominantly zonal jet pattern then starts featuring small low-predictability ripples that will impact how warm we get and what our precip chances are. The GFS stays a little more subtle with the features and shows a couple rounds of shower, and even thunderstorm chances with deep low level return flow. Where the ECMWF ramps up a big sharp shortwave trough that sends another strong cold front through the area. Both for now max precip chances out on Thursday but the nature of the precip (more convective of frontal stratiform) will have to be determined a little later on as the synoptic picture develops.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

IFR to low MVFR ceilings across the region this morning, something to that effect likely holds EVV/OWB for a few hours while there is a window for brief improvement further southwest before a strong cold front crashes through the area. That front will feature an abrupt wind shift with gusts 18-25 mph. I think low ceilings will likely form up along and behind the front and persist for a few hours as well as patchy drizzle which would become freezing drizzle as the temperatures fall sharply behind the front.

The cold dry air behind the front should eventually result in improved cig/vis but it will probably take several hours after frontal passage.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-110>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight to noon CST /1 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for KYZ001>022.