textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- South to southwest around 15 to 20 mph expected today, strongest over southern IL into southwest IN through about 1pm. Gusts may be near Wind Advisory criteria (50-70% chance) in those locations at 30- 40 mph. - A good chance (70%-90%) of showers and thunderstorms expect Sunday afternoon/evening. Severe storms will be possible with damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes being the main threats.

- Very strong, gusty south winds Sunday afternoon and evening will shift to the west then northwest Sunday night through Monday. Sustained winds may be as high as 20-25 mph with gusts likely to exceed 40 mph outside of any thunderstorm activity.

- Rain will transition to snow Sunday night into Monday morning as much colder air filters into the area. There is roughly a 30-50% chance of seeing at least a half inch of snow for much of the area, mainly on grassy/elevated areas.

- Cold temperatures are expected to linger for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s or colder.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The main impactful weather today will be gusty winds. Gradient winds increase across the Quad State through early afternoon with sustained south winds reaching 15-20 mph with gusts in the 30-35 mph range with a few gusts to 40 mph possible. It is still possible a Wind Advisory may be needed.

Attention then turns to a very strong cold front, associated with a very powerful/deepening low pressure system over northern MO/IL, will pass through the area Sunday afternoon/evening, bringing the next round of showers and storms. Dewpoints are steadily increasing from model run to model run with probabilities of seeing 60 degree dewpoints around 30-40%. That is up from only about 10% yesterday. Instability ahead of the front has increased with the latest guidance to around 500-600 J/kg or so. That doesn't sound like much, but low instability with 0-6km shear vectors at 60kts from the west- southwest orthogonal to the line of storms is more than sufficient for severe weather. This will especially be true if they become surface-based (probabilities increase with dewpoints at 60 degrees or better). Of even more concern is the 0-3km shear vectors are out of the west-southwest as well, leading to an increased risk of QLCS- type tornadoes! There is plenty of upper-level support with an intense upper-level jet overhead as the very deep trough digs in to the area from the west. The top 3 CIPS Analogs has several wind reports and/or tornadoes from similar past events. To show how dynamical the system is, 850-700mb winds are in the 99.5th percentile (near Max) for Sunday afternoon. Impressive wind dynamics to say the least!!

Along those same lines, south winds will be very gusty ahead of the front, shifting to the west and northwest behind the front. Gradient winds will likely be sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts likely to exceed 40mph!! This may help to advect moisture northward greater than the models are showing right now too. High Wind Warning criteria may be met on Sunday into at least Sunday night. Cold air advection with deeper instability under the trough axis will keep gusty winds in place through much of the day Monday, likely gusting to around 40 mph.

Much colder air will arrive behind that cold front with lows dropping into the 20s and 30s Sunday night into Monday morning. Highs are forecast to only warm into the 30s and 40s for Monday. Lingering forcing and moisture, along with a deep trough axis digging through the area late Sunday night, will likely lead to a quick changeover to light to moderate bursts of snow across the Quad State. Soundings definitely support the possibility as well. Many locations in the Quad State will likely see some snow accumulation on grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces as temperatures drop rapidly. There is a 30-50% chance of seeing a half inch of snow or maybe a bit more. It will definitely be a big change from the warm weather that has been in place recently.

The colder weather looks to be short-lived as temperatures are expected to moderate to more seasonable levels by the middle to end of next week. Highs will then reach into the 60s to around 70.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

LLWS at the beginning of this TAF issuance will turn more toward gusty winds around or just after sunrise with deeper mixing. Gusts may reach up to 30 kts, especially at the northeastern TAF sites (EVV/OWB). Winds will diminish to around 10 kts or less late this afternoon through tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.