textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today and this evening, but widespread showers and storms are expected to move eastward across the Quad State beginning early Saturday morning in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Over an inch of rainfall is possible (50-80% chance in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois) before it exits to the east late Saturday evening.

- Near record warmth is forecast for today and tonight with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees above normal. A cold frontal passage Saturday will send temperatures down to near or below normal levels from Sunday through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Convection along the cold front draped across the St Louis Metro early this morning is quite sparse and weak, and current expectations are that the front will remain north of the Quad State this morning. It will lift farther north of the region by midday. This will keep the entire Quad State in the warm sector today through this evening, leading to no obvious foci for convective development today. The 00Z HREF generates over 1000J/kg of surface-based CAPE, but keeps it capped...barely. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible over the entire region mainly this afternoon, but much of the region will remain dry, after some morning showers and storms push out of the region.

Confidence in the convective forecast tonight is quite low. The 00Z HREF keeps the Quad State dry until 3 AM Saturday when the frontal band arrives. However, the larger-scale models generate convection over southeast Missouri in the evening well ahead of the frontal band. There will be some tangible instability left over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but the shear appears to be rather weak, so severe weather seems like quite a stretch.

Some better instability may have time to develop over west Kentucky, and possibly southwest Indiana ahead of the frontal band on Saturday, but the shear needed to support a severe storm threat is lacking. The better shear is displaced behind the convective band.

The NBM rainfall forecast through Saturday night has nearly an inch over most of the Quad State with some streaks of 1.5"-1.7" over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The 00Z GEFS and ECENS both have a 50-80% chance of over an inch of rainfall over southeast Missouri and the western half of southern Illinois, with little to no chance of an inch over southwest Indiana and much of west Kentucky. We have been quite dry for 2026 so far, so it will not be a shock to see this system underperform guidance rainfall amounts.

High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s which will be within a degree of record highs at three of our five climate sites. We set record warm lows at four out of five sites yesterday, and that will be a possibility again today, especially at Evansville and Paducah.

Temperatures will fall to normal levels or below for Sunday through Tuesday night. The NBM has low temperatures dropping into the 30s over portions of the region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Monday night should be the coolest night, but even then the 00Z ECENS and GEFS have only a 10% chance of dropping to the freezing mark along and north of I-64. The ensemble systems diverge for Tuesday night with the ECENS having no chance of reaching freezing in our northeast, while the GEFS has a 10-30% chance.

South winds and increasing 500mb heights should lead to a warm up to above normal levels Wednesday through Friday. The NBM has high temperatures climbing to 70 degrees or higher in the south Wednesday and throughout the area Thursday and Friday. In general, the 00Z ECENS is bullish for 70 degrees each day, while the GEFS has little chance of hitting 70 on Wednesday and only around a 50% chance on Thursday. The NBM is obviously more in line with the warmer ECENS.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A cloud deck at 2500 to 3500 ft should start to scatter out at least a little shortly, and the odds favor cloud bases above 3000 ft regardless at most sites within the next hour or two. Tonight an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will approach from the west and traverse the region through the early to mid morning hours. Light rain and MVFR ceilings are expected behind the activity with winds shifting more westerly.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.