textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold temperatures and dangerously cold wind chill values are forecast through Saturday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area this evening through Saturday morning.

- Temperatures will begin to moderate back to near normal values early next week.

- Confidence remains fairly low for potential precipitation Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. A light wintry mix is still possible, especially in the Evansville Tri State, but the trend seems to be toward less precipitation and a shorter duration event.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A upper trough will rotate southeast over the Quad State tonight. It will bring the final surge of colder air and some cloud cover with the potential for some flurries to the Quad State tonight. North winds will remain near 10kts sustained, and wind chills will drop below zero quickly this evening. Some locations in southeast Missouri will reach 5 below by 02Z or 03Z, so moved up the start time of the Cold Weather Advisory to 9 PM CST. Otherwise, the Advisory looks good with low temperatures in the single digits and minimum wind chills from slightly below -10F in the northwest to around -5F in the far south. Portions of southern Illinois may drop to near zero Saturday night, but the wind will not be impactful, so no Cold Weather Advisory is needed at this time.

As the upper pattern relaxes early next week, temperatures are expected to climb above freezing throughout the Quad State on Monday, and should get to within a few degrees of normal on Tuesday, as our next weather system approaches. Much of the region will see highs reach 40 degrees on Tuesday. The milder air and cool rain should help kick-start the snow melting process across the region.

Thankfully, the 00Z ECMWF seems to have been the outlier with its compact winter storm system moving right through the Quad State Tuesday night. The 12Z ECENS has trended toward lighter precipitation and just a glancing blow mainly impacting the southeast half of the Quad State. Its chance of 0.10" or more of liquid is only 30-40% over the Bootheel and west Kentucky with lower chances north and west. This also results in a colder forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GEFS, while not terribly wet, is not as dry as and does not have as short a duration as the ECENS, but does show the same trends, only weaker.

This continues to be a low confidence forecast, with disturbances in multiple flows interacting in our vicinity. This may not be settled until early next week, but the overall trends of warmer air to start and a more glancing blow are positive signs that this event will not have that great of an impact on the Quad State. Temperatures will tumble back well below normal for Wednesday.

The last half of next week looks dry with a warming trend close to normal levels again by next Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 451 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Scattered MVFR cigs will be slower to arrive tonight with a 40-50% chance at most of the terminals. Low cigs scatter out in the morning before a high probability of MVFR cigs arrives at KEVV/KOWB by late morning. There is more uncertainty at KMVN/KPAH due to a sharp gradient, but have included mention with a 60-70% chance. North to northwest winds between 10-16 kts will gust to 20-25 kts on Saturday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ this evening to noon CST /1 PM EST/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday for KYZ001>022.