textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory now in effect today; an Advisory continues thru Tuesday along and west of a line from Mount Vernon, IL to Murray KY.

- Marginal risk of severe storms Today-Tomorrow (Sunday-Monday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The CAMs model the upstream convection to top the stout upper ridge and then dive southward and eastward toward the PAH FA later today. There is variance amongst the HREF members on whether it will hold together enough to impact us (HRRR/ARW) or not (NSSL/FV3). Their timing suggests by mid morning if it holds, otherwise, its outflow boundary lay-out will allow for PM development along it. Either way, there is sufficient instability to support our marginal risk of severe storms for mainly, damaging wind potential, which SPC pegs at 5%.

Another southward dive of energy is anticipated on Day-2 (Monday), though the energy train displaces its axis further east with time. Once again, there is sufficient instability to support our marginal risk of severe storms for damaging wind potential, which again SPC pegs at 5%, over our northeast counties.

Headline heat onsets today and continues thru Tuesday for anticipated heat indices up to around 112 degrees. We've upgraded our existing Advisory to a Warning, and expanded said Advisory further to our east,

We'll return to more climatolically normal temperatures over the back half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Bases/CIGS and VSBYS are restricting with fog and low stratus early this morning, but it's generally sporadic. Otherwise, timing the upstream cnvection suggests a mid morning appearance here, if it can hold up. Afternoon destabilization and activation upon the leftover boundaries will help focus storm chances again later in the day.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-091. MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>009. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>009. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ010>022.