textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms continues late this afternoon into tonight. The main severe hazard is damaging winds, with a heavy rain hazard capable of localized flooding.

- There is a similar, lingering, albeit smaller marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms late Friday into Friday night, then again Saturday into Saturday night.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible into and through the weekend; a Flood Watch is in effect. 1 to 3 inches cumulative rainfall is forecast on average, but locally higher amounts twice that or more are possible if and where storms repeat over the same areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

As the near term environment becomes increasingly warm and unstable, expect an approaching short wave this evening to touch off/expand our storm threat. The latest CAM modeling suggests it might be moreso in the evening vs the late pm, but cannot rule out earlier development entirely. The wave brings increased shear and steepening lapse rates aloft, so the slight risk svr continues with damaging winds the main such hazard. Localized flooding will be possible from heavy rains, esp if they can train over the same areas.

The aforementioned wave lingers activity into Friday morning, then there is a relative wane before another similar looking wave touches off convection late Friday into Friday night. Rinse and repeat for Saturday into Saturday night. Any of these storms will have just enough shear to work with from their parent driving wave(s) to keep a marginal risk of severe storms for damaging winds, while the continuing heavy rain hazard only heightens the localized flooding potential based upon repeat or training storms dumping high PW rainfall over the same areas. While we have 1-3" in the storm average cumulative rainfall forecast generally speaking, there is potential for localized higher amounts twice or more that, esp if they can repeat over the same areas...the Flood Watch continues.

We'll have to monitor daily storm chances into early next week, as the models get a little muddier with when/where they set up the broader synoptic scale ridge; this should eventually serve to stop our daily chances and heat us up a little. For now, we're looking at by mid week seeing its drying/warming impacts with highs more regularly pushing 90F again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Outside isolated diurnal activity, storm chances pick up again tonight with more widespread restrictions offered. CIGS may restrict to MVFR and VSBYS to IFR as the primary wave driving convection makes late night-early Friday passage. Recovery toward Visual Flight Rules should commence by tmrw pm, before another wave enters the forecast picture by tmrw night.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.