textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (40-80% chance) are expected overnight tonight into Friday morning.

- Some of the storms tonight could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- Friday afternoon and evening, additional scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop, with damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rain being the main threats.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will arrive Sunday and continue into most of next week. Daily peak heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along I-64 this afternoon and evening as a stationary boundary sags southward towards the region. A shortwave will initiate more widespread convection during the predawn hours Friday morning across the western and northern parts of the forecast area. Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will rapidly increase during this time, as storm will have access to very moist PWAT values, and rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be possible. The ongoing Flood Watch for parts of the area near and north of the Ohio River through early Saturday morning looks to be in good shape at this time.

For the rest of the day Friday, model guidance has trended more aggressive with the progged low-level wind fields during the afternoon and evening. The morning convection will likely leave plenty of outflow boundaries and differential heating gradient to locally enhance shear as well. As another shortwave passes through the area and surface low pressure deepens to our north, isolated to scattered convection (both supercells and multi-cell clusters) will develop over southeast MO and southern IL and move east into west KY and southwest IN. Concern is growing that we could see a few reports of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts with this activity, in addition to more heavy rain and flooding issues. Convective activity will continue into Saturday afternoon and evening as the front sag into the area before washing out. The focus for heavy rain will shift south of the Ohio River.

Sunday through next week, the frontal boundary will retreat to the north as a very stout H5 ridge builds over the area. With temperatures at 850 mb around 20-24C, temperatures in the middle to possible upper 90s are expected. Combined with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, daily heat index values of 105 to 110F are forecast through at least the middle of the week and likely beyond. A Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning will likely been needed during this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Ongoing convection will push south of KOWB over the next few hours. After a lull tonight, another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact all terminals during the early morning hours on Friday. MVFR conditions are also probable with pockets of IFR conditions as precipitation tapers off. Conditions then become favorable for some stronger convection Friday afternoon when a few scattered severe storms will be possible. Light winds tonight increase to 10-12 kts with gusts around 20 kts out of the south on Friday.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>111. IN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ014-018.