textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon mainly for areas in the vicinity of and north of I-64. The main threats would be damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado.

- Cooler conditions are expected Friday through the weekend behind the cold front. Friday will also be breezy with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph at times.

- Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s.

- Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A warm front will continue to slowly lift north this afternoon as its parent sfc low moves northeast through northern MO and its attendant cold front approaches from the west. Shower and storms are expected to begin to redevelop over northwestern portions of the area over the next few hours. SPC upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over our northern most counties in southern IL and southwest IN for this afternoon. This is based primarily on the potential for destabilization due to daytime heating over the next few hours, and excessively high PWATs that are greater than 2" causing the potential for damaging winds. The main threats this afternoon would be damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado. Looking into model soundings there could be a potential for a few low-topped supercells or "spinny showers" which could result in the possibility of a "sneaky" tornado or two. Will need to keep a close eye on the evolving situation this afternoon. The severe threat exists mainly till sunset as conditions wane quickly after that, however showers may continue for several more hours.

A cold front then moves through the area tonight and brings us a big cool down for tomorrow and Saturday. Highs will be 25-30 degrees cooler tomorrow as they struggle to reach 60 degrees, and will hover right around 60 on Saturday. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest tomorrow with gusts to around 30 mph at times. Saturday night shows a pretty good potential for a first frost across a majority of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. Temperatures then begin to moderate Sunday with sfc high pressure to the northeast and southerly return flow. Expect a gradual warming trend through the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Lower cloud heights still exist for the northern sites, but should increase briefly to VFR in the next few hours at EVV and OWB. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front with highest chances at the northern sites. Winds will pick up (6-12kt) shortly out of the S/SW and will shift to be out of the W/NW as the cold front moves through the forecast area. Stronger gusts are expected to increase in the latter half of the TAF period up to 20-25 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.