textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will gradually wind down this afternoon into the evening, with a brief dry period expected tonight through Thursday.

- Another round of showers and storms arrives Thursday night into Friday. Can't rule out a few stronger storms Friday afternoon, but confidence is low at this time.

- An unsettled holiday weekend is shaping up with multiple rounds of showers and storms likely. It does appear the bulk of the daytime hours on Saturday may end up dry though. The unsettled pattern likely continues through at least mid next week.

- There is a 60-80% chance that southeast portions of the Quad State exceed 3 inches of additional rainfall through next Wednesday.

- Temperatures start out 5 to 10 degrees below normal the next two days (low to mid 70s) before nudging closer to normal this weekend (near 80) and eventually above normal by mid next week (mid 80s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A disturbance lifting across the lower Ohio Valley today is resulting in a widespread soaking rain across our region. Certainly is quite beneficial for the ongoing drought! This activity will gradually wind down this afternoon, with lingering showers mainly over the KY Pennyrile this evening before shifting east. A 1032mb surface high across the Great Lakes will attempt to push drier air into our area tonight into Thursday (although dew points likely remain above 60 across our southern counties). This will shunt the boundary well to our south and result in a 24 hour period of dry conditions through Thursday evening.

Another shortwave aloft will move northeast from the Ark-La-Tex Thursday night into Friday with a good surge of additional moisture associated with it. This likely induces a surface low to develop, but placement of this is still rather uncertain. The GFS/Canadian pivot it northeast across southeast MO and southwest IL during the day on Friday, leading to a nice surge of 70 degree dewpoints and 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE for at least the eastern half of our area. Meanwhile, the NAM is further east with the low moving up across the KY Pennyrile and resultant warm sector more to our east over LMK's area. Right now we aren't outlooked for severe storms, but if the GFS/Canadian end up being close to right then we likely would end up in at least a marginal risk. Morning activity could muck things up though, so certainly a low confidence situation.

It appears another lull develops Friday night into much of Saturday (currently looks like Saturday is the choice day of the holiday weekend for outdoor activities). Models continue to suggest a 500mb low across Texas on Sunday that slowly churns northward into the Ozarks/Missouri Valley through Tuesday. Forcing and moisture associated with this will lead to additional rounds of showers and storms on a daily basis Sunday through Tuesday. This may continue into at least mid next week as an upper ridge across the southeastern U.S. will keep a steady southwesterly flow of moisture into our area. There remains a high chance (60-80%) of at least 3" of additional rain across the southeast half of the area (particularly west KY) through next Wednesday.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side (low to mid 70s) the next couple of days before we start to trend warmer over the holiday weekend as get back around 80. Even warmer temperatures back into the mid 80s appear like a good bet by mid next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Widespread showers will gradually wind down from west to east through the afternoon, with any lingering activity after 00z southeast of the terminals. Limited thunder potential this afternoon and that should likely remain south and east of even KPAH/KOWB. IFR and low MVFR cigs will be hard pressed to move out, but some improvement this evening is anticipated at least at western terminals. Likely remain MVFR for southeast half to two thirds of the region though. Conditions likely decline again by early Friday morning with a return of IFR cigs. After the -SHRA exits we may still have some MVFR vsby restrictions to deal with across west KY overnight, but fairly low confidence on that impacting the terminals.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.