textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances begin later this morning and persist through Monday peaking at around 70-90%. The risk for at least some severe weather is increasing, particularly over southeast Missouri late this afternoon and tonight. Locally heavy rain/isolated flooding also appears possible.

- The hottest stretch of weather so far this year is expected midweek with high temperatures in the lower 90s and high humidity will result in afternoon heat index readings Tuesday through Thursday near to a little above 100 degrees.

- Another front will bring shower and storm chances (30-50%) Thursday or Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A swirling deep layer low lumbering over KS/OK jumps out at you as soon as you look at water vapor this morning. That low is being guided northeastward towards the area by a southwesterly 80 kt subtropical jet max over AR/TX/LA and broader jet maxes and troughing over the western CONUS. All of that is dragging with it a deeper/soupier airmass currently over Texas. That airmass gets in place by midday or so and the richer boundary layer moisture and weak frontogenetic forcing could get a few showers and storms going by early afternoon over the area. There is just a little bit of a capping inversion indicated about 850 mb and with weak low level convergence surface based parcels may still struggle to get going. Deep layer shear does start to improve through the day and is trending a little stronger run to run with that advancing southwesterly upper jet max. Lower- level flow also increases after sunset over the western half of the CWA.

In net there does appear to be 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 0-6km shear increasing to 20 possibly 30 kts in the evening. Some sneaky low level curvature also works into the hodograph over western SEMO in the early evening. Cloud cover will probably be a factor all day but dewpoints are already at 70 degrees here now so adding just a little more juice to that would render instability anyway. Will need to watch for isolated severe during the day (wind/hail) and possibly mini-supercell type threats after dark tomorrow night over SEMO.

The main upper low then moves overhead Monday night. Plan view and model soundings do not depict much deeper layer shear but these closed lows can overproduce immediately ahead and under them so we will need to be wary of some severe potential - with similar mechanisms, more of a mini-supercell type threat - on Monday. Although the overall setup on Monday looks more supportive of heavy rainfall with a saturated column and model PWAT values 1.9 to 2.1 inches. HREF PMMs are also getting more impressive with some 2 and 3 inch swaths. Overall deterministic QPF remains fairly modest but with some training or repetitive thunderstorms locally heavy rain/flooding looks to be in play.

Eventually all that mess clears out and we get hot and muggy for a few days with highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. It is not quite heat advisory threshold right now but it will certainly be more oppressive than anything we have had since last summer.

A fairly sharp shortwave in a broad jet max passes well northwest of the area tracking a low over the western Great Lakes that sends a cold front through Thursday. We will have to keep watching this for some severe weather risk but the shear/instability overlap doesn't look quite as impressive as it did 12-24 hours ago.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A few more hours of high confidence VFR conditions before things get messier later today. Low confidence on the specific timing of showers/storms as they will probably be somewhat scattered but a much more humid and soupy airmass will arrive around CGI/PAH by 17-19z and then up to MVN/EVV/OWB by 23z or so and with it an almost immediate threat for showers and thunderstorms will exist. Lowering ceilings to MVFR levels would also be reasonable to expect although the ceiling will probably be a bit bouncy as the airmass establishes itself becoming steadily lower as you approach and go past sunset.

A little bit of a lull appears possible after a first wave of showers/storms before a second relative peak in precip possibly by 08 or 09z. Was too far into the future in a long TAF to get too cute with it in the 12z package but will probably need to be added/adjusted to as the event unfolds.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.