textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and storms (ranging from 30-60%) are forecast through next weekend. While a stronger storm is possible early in the week, severe chances are rather low (less than 5%) through Wednesday. Somewhat greater severe probabilities (5-15%) may creep into portions of our area later Thursday into Friday.

- High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s through Wednesday, which is at or slightly below normal. Warmer temperatures (low 90s) Thursday and possibly Friday will likely yield heat index values above 100. Next weekend likely will feature temperatures closer to what we will experience early this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Mid-upper level troughiness will be the main driver in our weather this week. This will help keep temperatures in check (at or slightly below normal) and allow scattered convection to continue developing each day, primarily during the afternoon and early evening. The probability of receiving 0.1" or greater at any one location is generally only 20-40% through Thursday afternoon. So in other words, typical summer-time diurnal convection that will be hit or miss in nature. There is hardly any flow aloft so likely won't see organized convection through Wednesday, but again can't rule out a few storms that pulse up and produce some stronger winds any afternoon. Would tend to think the chances for that are less early in the week compared to what they were over the 4th of July weekend, given instability will be weaker (MLCAPE may only reach 1500-2000j/kg at best each day).

A couple of stronger disturbances aloft are forecast to slide across the Midwest into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. This will induce a frontal boundary to sink south towards the Quad State region and generate some actual flow to play with. Models advertise a pretty good chance at observing at least 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear. At the same time, instability will increase Thursday and Friday given the warmer airmass and southwest winds ushering in slightly higher dewpoints as well. This may allow more organized convection to develop, starting Thursday evening/overnight which would likely be more focused across southern IL and southwest IN before sinking south across more of the region on Friday afternoon/evening. ML severe probabilities do increase to 10-15% during this time frame, and may even linger into Saturday as well. The convection Thursday night through Friday night does appear more widespread, with probabilities of receiving at least 0.1" spiking in the 70-90% range. So for those that miss out early-mid week, this period will give us our best bet for widespread rain this week.

Next weekend may remain rather unsettled as the upper troughiness lingers. Beyond that, we may finally get several completely dry days by the July 13-16 timeframe as models are in rather good agreement that an upper ridge builds across the central CONUS during this period. However, how far east the ridge builds across the Mississippi Valley appears to be a big question at this point. General consensus for now does seem to suggest at least a few hot days at a minimum even if northwest flow ends up taking over by later that week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Areas of dense fog across west KY early this morning is staying south of the terminals. Also have some early isolated convection across southeast MO, but otherwise expecting the main window for scattered convection will be this afternoon into early evening. Any storm could produce some gusty winds and brief cig/vsby restrictions. Guidance is hinting at the possibility of an MVFR deck pushing into our northern terminals for a little while this morning before lifting to VFR this afternoon. We may have more fog to contend with for some areas tonight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>003- 006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022.