textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Our first wave of decent rainfall will spread across the region Sunday evening into Monday morning, with roughly a 40-60% chance of a swath of at least 0.5". Far northern portions of the region may see a dusting to less than half inch of snow Sunday night, but impacts are not expected.

- An unsettled pattern will lead to near daily chances for rain through this week and beyond. The active pattern is forecast to last through March 11 or 12. Total rainfall through the next 12 days may exceed 4" (currently around a 40-60% chance). Highest amounts may hold off until the latter part of next week and into the following week.

- After a brief cool down Sunday and Monday, there is high confidence in an extended period of well above normal temperatures. There is a 40-80% chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees for at least 8 days from this Tuesday through March 10th.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A lovely day is occurring today ahead of a disturbance moving towards us from KS/OK. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s to low 70s, and may even reach the mid 70s in parts of southeast MO. Light rain showers are spreading east across Missouri now, and some of these may sneak into portions of our region by mid-late afternoon and continue into the evening as a cold front sinks south into our area. The frontal boundary will become stalled to our south Sunday into Monday, leading to cooler temperatures with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

A disturbance aloft will pivot eastward across the Ozarks and into the lower Ohio Valley resulting in overrunning precipitation north of the frontal boundary Sunday evening into Monday morning. Overall amounts vary from model to model, with the highest swath potentially ranging anywhere from near 0.5" to a little over 1". The GFS and GEFS are the most aggressive with amounts of 0.5" to 1" while the ECMWF and it's ensemble generally remain under 0.5". The NBM is giving us roughly a 40-60% chance of 0.5", with the most likely corridor across the central part of the cwa. While the thermal profile will largely remain too warm for wintry precipitation, there remains a window of opportunity for some changeover to snow across areas along and north of I-64 Sunday night into early Monday morning. Given the marginal environment and warm antecedent ground temperatures, find it hard to believe much in the way of accumulation and subsequent impacts will occur. Most likely scenario appears to be a dusting to less than half inch of accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces, and this would largely be dependent on if rates were high enough.

A major pattern change is setting up this week and beyond with well above normal temperatures and near daily chances for rain. After the Monday system, the frontal boundary to our south lifts back north Monday night into Tuesday, with the warm sector returning across our cwa. This largely keeps precipitation chances confined to northern parts of the area, at least through Tuesday night and potentially into Wednesday. Zonal flow aloft early in the week will take on an increasingly southwesterly component mid to late week as large scale troughing becomes established out west and ridging becomes centered off the southeast U.S. coast. Guidance is in good agreement that this overall synoptic pattern will continue into the following week as well. Waves of energy ejecting out of the western U.S. trough will lead to multiple rounds of rainfall, some of which may be heavy particularly later in the week and into the following week. Ensembles are now suggesting a 40-60% chance of total rainfall reaching at least 4" across much of our region between March 1st and 12th. This is quite the pattern flip after the majority of our region only received 2-4" of precipitation over the past 90 days!

The overall pattern may support severe thunderstorms from time to time, with the first chance at this possibly occurring next Friday or Saturday. Additional chances may occur from March 9-12. Plenty of low level moisture will be in place with dewpoints reaching the low to mid 60s. Temperatures likely to be well into the 70s ahead of potential frontal boundaries would likely lead to decent instability developing as well, but we are still far enough out that confidence in exceeding a certain threshold of instability is still rather low. Certainly something to monitor though.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. BKN mid cloud will develop ahead of a frontal boundary that drops south through the region tonight. A few light showers are possible later this afternoon into the evening ahead of the boundary. Southerly winds this afternoon will become variable this evening and then switch around to NNE overnight into Sunday morning. Some gusts in the 15-20 kt range are possible by mid-late morning as mixing increases.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.