textproduct: Paducah
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Intervals of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through Saturday, with scattered chances peaking around 40-60% each day. No particular day is a wash out, but Friday looks to be the most unsettled with more sporadic activity.
- Dry conditions return Sunday into Monday that will yield more hot and humid conditions with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.
- Unsettled weather quickly returns by the middle of next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, putting an end to the warming trend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
A broad H5 trough over the Ohio Valley and a sfc boundary in the central Plains will set the stage for a return of unsettled weather today through Saturday. As a series of shortwaves round a 597 dm ridge located over the southwest Rocky Mountains, intervals of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with rain chances peaking around 40-60% each day. The focus this morning will be across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as a decaying complex of storms moves through with embedded rumbles of thunder. Instability is modest at best, favoring heavy downpours and lightning being the main concern with storms. Sporadic rain chances shift more east Friday into Friday night before tapering off Saturday morning.
The aformentioned ridge builds more leeward of the Rockies Sunday into Monday allowing for drier conditions across the FA. Southerly return flow will cause an influx of higher dewpoints in the 70s as the heat and humidity builds. High temperatures by the NBM are progged in the lower 90s with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. However, the ridge quickly breaks down by the middle of next week, allowing for daily showers and thunderstorms to return. The height falls will likely put an end to the warming trend with temperatures eventually returning back to the 80s for the latter half of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 527 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
An area of convection by St Louis will weaken later this morning as it pushes into the region. KMVN and potentially KCGI has the greatest risk of TSRA before giving way to high-level clouds in the afternoon. Another round of storms may return after 6z Friday, also impacting the western terminals. Winds will be highly variable during the period between 3-7 kts.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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