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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief period of light snow and flurries (30-60% chance) is expected late tonight across portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky, with a 50-80% chance of a tenth or two of accumulation, especially along and north of Interstate 64. - Temperatures will slowly increase tonight, reaching near the freezing mark around sunrise, and near 40 degrees by mid to late morning. - An Arctic cold front will push through the region Friday night, giving areas mainly east of the Mississippi River low chances (20-40%) of light snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Isolated areas could see a light dusting. - Very cold air and northwest winds will result in wind chill readings from near zero to around 10 degrees Friday night through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A warm front lifting north into our region tonight will bring chances of light snow, primarily between midnight and 6am Friday in portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. The HREF indicate a 50-80% chance of at least a tenth of an inch of snow accumulation in areas along and north of a line from Mount Vernon Illinois, to McLeansboro to Uniontown Kentucky to Owensboro, with the highest chances along and north of Interstate 64. Lesser chances are expected across the rest of southern Illinois and west Kentucky in the form of flurries. With temperatures slowly increasing overnight toward the freezing mark by daybreak, and then with highs Friday in the 40s, accumulations should be short-lived.

An Arctic front will move through the region Friday night, ushering in very cold air for the weekend, and low chances (20-40%) of light snow/flurries to areas mainly east of the Mississippi River. Isolated locations could see a dusting, but mostly flurries are expected. The northern half of the region will see high temperatures remaining below freezing Saturday through Monday, with the southern half near to a little above freezing. Friday night wind chills will be in the teens to lower 20s, Saturday night in the single digits to around 10 degrees, and Sunday night from around zero north to the single digits south. Out coldest night will be Monday night with low temperatures from 7 to 12 degrees, but winds will be light to calm.

Winds will shift back to the southwest Tuesday, providing a warming trend into Wednesday to near seasonal temperatures. Low pressure approaching our region from the southwest will bring chances (20-30%) of light rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, which would be a rain/snow mix or light snow Wednesday night. Timing overall is still in question.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Flurries and brief light snow showers are now moving east across the region. There remains a 30% chance of light coatings at the northern terminals as ample dry air is present in the column. Cigs likely remain VFR until tomorrow afternoon when there is a 50-60% chance of MVFR conditions. Kept VFR cigs at KPAH/KCGI as the probabilities are only 20-30% on the latest guidance. Returning snow showers are possible at the end of the TAF period as another disturbance approaches. Winds on Friday will be a bit gusty out of the southwest around 20 kts.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.


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