textproduct: Paducah

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat and humidity continues across the region. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Friday evening.

- Small chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and Friday, followed by daily scattered chances (30-50%) for the Fourth of July into early next week.

- Slightly less oppressive temperatures but continued high humidity levels will accompany the increasing chances of precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Our dangerous heat wave continues as the region remains under a 596 dm H5 ridge. With 850 mb temperatures hovering around 23-25C (around the 99th percentile), high temperatures should have no trouble reaching the lower to middle 90s, despite dew point temperatures approaching 80 degrees. This will yield daily peak heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees through Friday.

Ensemble guidance is showing the ridge starting to break down beginning this weekend, and this will allow mentionable precipitation chances to return. Schc PoPs return to the forecast as soon as Thursday, but look to increase to chc levels for the Fourth of July into next week. We will need to keep a close eye on the potential for "ridge rider" MCS activity impacting the region as the H5 ridge diminishes. Predictability on these kind of events is usually on the lower side at this range, so adjustments to the precipitation forecast are possible in the next day or two.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions are expected tonight. Conditions do not currently appear favorable for fog overnight. Southwest winds pick up tomorrow to about 5 to 8 kts with VFR skies.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

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