textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm will continue to impact the entire region through Sunday afternoon. Heavy snowfall mixed with sleet and freezing rain will make travel nearly impossible.

- With the ongoing weekend storm, the northern half of the Quad State is forecast to see an additional 7-12 inches of snow. Further south, where sleet/freezing rain is more likely across southeast portions of the Quad State, combined snow/sleet totals of 4-7 inches are forecast (up to around an inch of that from sleet in the south/east), with freezing rain accumulations of a quarter inch possible from Calloway to Todd Counties.

- Sub-freezing temperatures with intervals of dangerous cold wind chills will continue through all of next week. The most dangerous cold weather impacts will occur Monday morning and Tuesday morning when wind chills values between -10 to -20 are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Updated the Aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

There are two major winter hazards in the forecast period ahead: 1. the ongoing winter storm, bringing significant snowfall to the entire Quad State with mixing of sleet/freezing rain in the southeast, and 2. very cold to extreme cold conditions that extend throughout the week ahead.

1. Major Winter Storm Impacts:

The ongoing major winter storm continues through the weekend. The first wave, which has almost exclusively been snow (sleet has reached about as far north as the KY/TN border early this afternoon), has produced snowfall totals of 1-3 inches so far. Occasional banding of moderate snow has occurred with one of these bands approaching the Evansville area now. While surface winds are northeasterly, flow aloft has been advecting moisture into the area, providing a warm nose between 700-850mb, though not enough to switch precip type so far with surface temperatures all the way down to 10-18F. The right entrance region of a strong upper level jet stretched west to east across the Midwest has provided a source of lift to get this first round going. Snow began to accumulate a little earlier than forecast this morning and the relative lull (precip doesn't entirely drop off) between the two rounds has reached Southeast Missouri and Arkansas.

The upper level disturbance at the base of the upper trough is entering Western Mexico at this time and will accelerate northeastward. Energy from this system catches up to a Texas surface low in the Deep South Sunday morning as it tracks northeastward through Tennessee later in the day. Ahead of this system, during the overnight hours, the warm nose will advance further into Western Kentucky and Southeast Missouri, allowing for mixing of sleet to reach as far north as the Ohio River region late tonight. Freezing rain is also possible in far southeastern portions of the Quad State from the Missouri Bootheel through Murray to Hopkinsville/Elkton. Highest freezing rain totals late tonight into Sunday morning could reach a quarter inch or so near Fort Campbell/Elkton which may cause some tree and power line damage (especially if this overperforms via a slight shift in positioning as half inch freezing rain forecasts are close by in South-Central KY/Central TN). Sleet tonight through midday Sunday may amount to an inch, contributing to lower snowfall totals in the southern half of the Quad State of 4-7 inches of additional accumulation (sleet included) for the remainder of this storm.

The left exit region of the southern stream jet max over the lower Mississippi will increase lift late tonight through tomorrow. Model soundings produce a deep isothermal layer again, similar to today, but greater frontogenetical forcing will be present tomorrow. SW to NE oriented banding shows up in most models, allowing for localized higher totals late tonight through tomorrow with model output also suggesting better snowfall rates compared to today. Additional snowfall totals this afternoon through Sunday of 7-12 inches are possible in the north. Aside from the mixed precipitation areas in the south, most locations will tend to see higher totals with round two (tonight through tomorrow) than round one (today). Wrap- around light snow ends this event late Sunday. For many locations, this event can still add up to a top 5 snowfall.

Travel conditions will continue to worsen, especially as mixing of sleet and freezing rain begins this evening, and snowfall totals continue to pile up. Delay travel if at all possible and use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

2. Dangerous Cold Weather Impacts

A very strong high pressure system, centered over Saskatchewan, but covering much of the Northern Plains will continue slowly drifting southeastward this weekend into early next week. Arctic air has continued to funnel in from the northeast today, with temperatures in the 10-18F range at this time. Wind chills this morning of -4 to -12 were commonplace across the Quad State. Daytime max wind chills today and Sunday only reach the single digits. While wind chills may not quite reach advisory criteria late tonight/early Sunday, they will at least be close and, due to the contributing hazard of the major winter storm, and lack of daytime relief, we will extend the cold weather advisory through 6z Monday as the impacts will be there.

Snow cover is expected through the entire Quad State from this weekend storm, providing a boost for radiational cooling at night. Winds around 5-10 mph early Monday and Tuesday mornings result in early morning wind chills of -10 to -15 across the entire Quad State both mornings, and as low as -19 in the northwest Monday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for 6z Monday to 16z Tuesday for this concern.

Smaller scale disturbances move through the Great Lakes midweek, providing a reinforcing burst of cold air and perhaps a slight chance of snow in the northeast Wednesday evening, but otherwise dry conditions dominate the week ahead. Aside from the Ozark Foothills region Tuesday/Wednesday, temperatures elsewhere are forecast to remain below freezing the entire week ahead, limiting melting. Continued upper troughing, northwesterlies at the surface keeping cold air flowing in, and snowpack, may result in additional cold weather products being issued for late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 450 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The ebb in heavier pcpn/lower CIGS/VSBYS will be short-lived this evening, before the next/main wave moves thru with more intense snow/sleet resulting in deteriorating CIGS/VSBYS again. Some temporary IFR restrictions are anticipated. This will last the bulk of the overnight into the day Sunday, before minor improving trends begin to ease in from the west during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to 10 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to 10 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Sunday night for INZ081-082-085>088. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Sunday night to 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for KYZ001>022. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KYZ001>022. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Sunday night to 10 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ001>022.