textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to soar 20-30 degrees above normal today through this weekend. High temperatures will approach record levels each day.

- A cold front will bring a small chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- Temperatures will temporarily cool back to near normal values for late March early next week, but will again rise to 10-20 degrees above normal for the second half of next week.

- Another chance (25-35%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast beginning late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Temperatures will be feeling more like late May than late March the today through the weekend. The extreme H5 ridging over the southwest CONUS will continue to flatten and expand eastward into the Midwest today through this weekend, with the highest temperatures forecast on Sunday. High temperatures today and Saturday will generally climb into the lower to middle 80s.

On Sunday, temperatures at 850 mb will rise to about 15-18C across the region, which is at the 100th percentile compared to climatology. This will bring forecast high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. In fact, Sunday's high temperature forecast could be a bit too low still across the Ozark Foothills. Here, the NBM ensemble shows a 50-75% chance of high temperatures over 90F and a 15-25% chance of high temperatures over 95F! Record high temperatures will be challenged daily through Sunday, but they could be broken by a few degrees on Sunday.

Sunday evening, a potent but moisture-starved cold front will sweep through the region from north to south. This will bring a small chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms to locations near and east of the Mississippi River, but the setup does not look promising for much in the way of appreciable rainfall. Likewise, any severe weather risk will be confined well east of the region.

Following the passage of the cold front, cool Canadian high pressure will bring a major cooldown. However, temperatures Monday through Wednesday will actually be near typical late March values. As the surface high shifts east of the region, southerly return flow will increase, bringing another warmup for the latter half of next week to 10-20 degrees above normal by Thursday. Another cold front associated with a progged surface low passing through the Great Lakes looks to bring another chance (25-35%) of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night and possibly beyond, but details are murky at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Good flying conditions are expected through this TAF issuance with VFR ceilings and visibilities. Winds will shift from the south tonight to the west by Friday afternoon. Gusts may reach close to 20 kts during peak heating.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.