textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain moves across the Quad State this evening through Monday morning. North of I-64 could see a brief mix of wintry precipitation (most likely freezing rain) near sunrise, but little to no impacts are expected due to warm antecedent conditions.

- After a very dry to record dry winter, a major pattern shift is in store for the upcoming week to more unsettled conditions. Daily chances for rain exist with a decent signal for beneficial rainfall with a 30-75% (SE to NW) chance of greater than 2" in the 7 day forecast period.

- Temperatures warm to well above normal with widespread 70+ highs Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

High clouds are moving through the Quad State region today, while northeasterly winds at the surface keep temperatures suppressed. Most sites are currently in the mid to upper 40s, warming to daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s with some upper 50s possible in the southern Kentucky Pennyrile. A mid- level disturbance in the Central Plains today tracks eastward through tomorrow. Rain develops in the convergence zone, progressing to the Mississippi River by midnight then spreading across the Quad State the rest of the night, lingering through the morning hours. Temperatures drop low enough to approach freezing along and north of the I-64 corridor near sunrise which may lead to some mixing of wintry precipitation. Model soundings suggest freezing rain is the most likely wintry precip type should sufficient cooling occur, but warm antecedent conditions and limited potential and duration of surface temperatures just barely reaching freezing should keep wintry accumulations from occurring. QPF has ticked upwards for the tonight-Monday system with a 40-80% chance of 0.5" of rain and 15-60% chance of 1" of rain, with the higher end chances along a line from around Perryville, MO eastward to the IL/IN/KY triple-point.

The W-E oriented surface front surges northward Tuesday bringing southerly flow and warming temperatures with highs in the 70s for most of the Quad State and lows in the 50s to near 60. On the synoptic scale, a ridge builds in the east while a trough deepens out west. A stream of Gulf moisture around the ridge will make for a very active pattern. Daily rain chances are included the entire forecast period beginning tonight for at least portions of the Quad State. Tuesday-Wednesday the key feature will be an elongated (SW to NE oriented) area of low pressure positioned further west with rain mainly funneling from around Tulsa/Fayetteville northeastward to St Louis into Illinois. Southeastern portions of the Quad State should have a bit of a break during that time. Otherwise, showers are forecast in the north/northwest Tuesday and thunder gets introduced Wednesday. A low pressure system approaches late week, tracking northeastward as well and bringing more showers and storms. Some severe storms could be a factor for Friday/Saturday as a cold front Saturday has decent model support.

QPF through the 7 day period has lowered some and shifted westward with 2-4" (lower in SE, higher in NW). Flooding potential would be fairly limited with these totals, following a very dry to record dry winter, though active weather remains for the rest of the first third of March. Spreading out this rain over several days will help improve drought conditions. Temperatures will be well above normal Tuesday through at least Friday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s (a cold front over the weekend will provide temporary cooling). Friday is currently projected to be the warmest with highs in the 75-80 degree range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

While high clouds move through from the northwest, surface winds will be breezy at times out of the northeast today with gusts to 15-20kts. Cloud heights lower tonight into tomorrow with eventual MVFR then IFR cigs arriving with precipitation. Vsby drops to MVFR are likely with rain, with spotty incidence of IFR vsby. Some mixing of wintry precip (most likely freezing rain, if anything) is possible on the far northern edge of the coverage area near sunrise but warm surface temperatures, and lows only dropping to 32-35F in the north, heading into the event will help limit any wintry accumulation.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.