textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Possibly a good set up for fog or even freezing fog tonight, though the potential for a mid-high level cloud deck may mitigate dense, freezing fog potential.

- Another arctic air mass descends through the Midwest on Friday plunging temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s. We may reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria Friday morning and possibly Extreme Cold Warning criteria Saturday morning.

- This is mainly a dry forecast through the end of the 7-day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Southwest sfc flow helps our temperatures to moderate today and tomorrow, though still below average and mostly below freezing. NBM shows a roughly greater than 40% chance of SEMO getting above freezing today. Wednesday is a slightly lower chance for SEMO with that greater than 40% chance being west of a line from Doniphan to Perryville. Tonight's and Wednesday night's wind chills will be pretty close to the actual lows as winds will be light to near calm.

Overnight tonight could be a tricky set up with regards to the potential for fog or even freezing fog. Regarding the set up...WAA from the southwest flow increases the chances for melting today, thus adding moisture to the boundary layer. That means we should fly past the crossover temperature tonight (afternoon dewpoints are in the teens) with our overnight lows in the single digits (greater than 50% chance of lows less than 10F). We will decouple strongly overnight, resulting in light to calm winds. Winds up to 975 mb also look light (well less than 15 kts). The kicker is that quite a few models are showing a 9k-15k ft cloud deck overnight over the southern 2/3 of the CWA. The EC, GFS, and NAM all show a slug of moisture moving in at 700mb overnight with the shortwave trof axis aloft. This cloud deck would likely limit the development of any dense, freezing fog. Model visibilities are hit and miss with the fog development tonight, so used the dew point depressions and wind to populate the fog potential for tonight. This will need to be watched closely for the development of any dense, freezing fog.

Thursday night a quick disturbance aloft could generate some flurries or light snow with the LREF showing a 30-50% chance of a trace of snowfall. NBM however is dry. Friday another strong arctic high pressure system descends from Canada through the Midwest. This will plunge highs back into the teens and lower 20s. Friday morning some areas could see wind chills meeting Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Saturday morning wind chills may see Extreme Cold Warning criteria.

Sunday temperatures begin to moderate as winds move back to the southwest again and return WAA to the region. Another shortwave aloft might swing through the broader cyclonic flow in the afternoon and evening on Sunday, bringing an approximately 20% chance for some light snow to southern IL, southwest IN, and the KY Pennyrile. Monday highs have a 40-70% chance of going above freezing in SEMO with about a 20-40% chance elsewhere. Tuesday highs have a 30-60% chance of going above freezing across the board.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Confidence is lower than average on overnight visilbity. There is a weak front to the north that should mostly wash out over the area, with winds likely becoming quite light. With very cold ground/snowpack and good radiational cooling conditions models suggest some fog formation, but the rate of cooling seems extremely aggressive even by current standards. Will be watching through 01-02z for trends and will make amendments at that time if trends support dense freezing fog overnight.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.