textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of thunderstorms will move through the region Saturday morning and afternoon. A few of these storms could be severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe and will produce heavy rain and flooding issues.

- Other than brief cool down this weekend, temperature will be very mild...approaching record highs on Friday and again Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 424 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The active weather parade will roll on through the next several days, as a series of disturbances moves across the Midwest. Ongoing light to moderate rain east of the Mississippi River will wind down tonight as a surface warm front lifts north of the region. This will set the stage for a warm but fairly quiet day on Friday. Temperatures will warm near record values again (in the upper 70s and lower 80s), with dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

Friday afternoon and evening, thunderstorm will erupt across the central Great Plains ahead of a cold front/dry line. These storms will grow upscale into an MCS that will roll into the region Saturday morning and afternoon. The timing of these storms will during a relative minimum in instability, but a few strong to severe wind gusts cannot be ruled, especially with soils now saturated.

Additionally, if the line of thunderstorms does trend a bit slower, there may be time for some diurnal heating in west KY and southwest IN, which could result in the line intensifying a bit. However, confidence is pretty low since we are still in the 36-48 hour forecast period.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday will see a brief quiet period as the surface cold front temporarily moves south of the area. This will bring a cool down in temperatures on Sunday, but it will still be comfortable by March standards.

The frontal boundary will lift back north on Monday, and a some isolated to scattered warm advection showers are possible during the afternoon. Temperatures will also soar back into the upper 70s with dew point temperatures rising above 60 degrees with warm southerly flow in place. Another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

Similar to tomorrow's setup, we are expecting another round of thunderstorms to develop west of the region Tuesday afternoon, and then march through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest QPF shows the potential for another 1.5-2.5", and locally higher amounts are very likely. With soils being pretty soggy now, the concern for flooding will be higher, in addition to more rises on the main stem rivers. SPC has a sliver of southeast MO in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday, but again confidence is pretty low being so far out.

Beyond early next week, there are signs that a return to more typical early March temperatures is possible for the latter half of next week. A period of dry conditions is also likely, at least for a couple days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 424 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Restricted bases may improve to VFR as we warm sector tonight, but will maintain CIGS regardless. Until we become fully warm sectored, spotty showers/lower restricted CIGS are possible. Tmrw in the warm sector southerlies will pick up again and may contain some gustiness at times into/thru the planning phase hours of the forecast; additional restricted bases may also re-establish with diurnal assistance.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.