textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of drizzle, light showers, and plenty of clouds will keep us cool again this afternoon (upper 70s to near 80). Although some breaks of sun are expected, especially west of the Mississippi River. Patchy fog may develop overnight as skies clear.

- Primarily dry conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday along with a return of some sunshine. Temperatures moderate through the 80s, returning closer to normal by Wednesday.

- Late week (Thursday-Saturday) has the potential to be at least somewhat unsettled, although current rain chances (20-30%) remain low due to lower confidence. Temperatures should average close to normal in the upper 80s to near 90.

- Guidance is suggesting our next heatwave may hold off until next Sunday and then continue into next week. The probability of exceeding 90 degrees has jumped to 60-80% during this time along with a good chance (50-60%) of heat index readings exceeding 100.

UPDATE

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A 500mb trough extends from the Eastern Great Lakes southwestward across KY and into AR currently. Forcing associated with the trough has produced areas of drizzle and a few light showers that have primarily been impacting areas east of the MS River. The trough will shift southeastward tonight into Monday, with the southern extent positioned more into east TN and GA. Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight as skies clear out. We should stay dry on Monday along with a return to some sunshine helping to boost temps back into the low to mid 80s. The upper energy to our southeast may attempt to lift back northwest some Tuesday and Wednesday, which could allow a few showers or isolated storms to sneak back into the KY Pennyrile. Seems most likely to remain to our south and east, but can't completely rule them out (10-20% chance). Overall looks like a dry next 3 days for the majority of our region.

As northern stream troughiness develops across the Upper Midwest, it will allow ripples of energy to dive southeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes from Wednesday night through Saturday. This may result in a somewhat unsettled period for portions of our region, although current PoPs are only in the 20-30% range at best. The main frontal boundary may remain north of our region most of this time, but it may come close enough to produce some higher chances for convection. Models suggest the highest wind shear (25 kts or greater) largely stays north of our area, but with instability likely to exceed 2000 j/kg a few stronger storms can't be ruled out during this time period. ML severe probs jump back to 5% for Thursday through Saturday, although highest probs stay north of us. Something to monitor at least, and given how active this summer has been, wouldn't be surprising at all to see some stronger convection return.

While temperatures moderate back to near seasonal values mid to late week, it looks like we may hold off until the Aug 9-11 period for our next potential heatwave. LREF probabilities of hitting 90 are in the 50-60% range by Thurs-Sat across southern portions of our region (even as early as Wed in our far west), but they jump up to 60-80% by next Sun-Tues. Ensembles are suggesting upper heights rise during this time as ridging tries to build back into the mid Mississippi Valley. NBM has toned down heat index readings for late week, primarily mid to upper 90s, but has them jumping back to 100 in parts of the area by Saturday and most of our area by next Sunday. Some guidance indicates this heat could continue through much of next week, with the ECMWF being the most bullish with it.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Modeling of spotty -SHRA/-DZ suggests said sensible wx will mostly (but perhaps not completely) avoid the terminals, as the primary trof responsible departs to the east, and is gradually replaced by surface high pressure. Clearing trends noted on satellite are working in from the west/the Ozarks with this surface pressure pattern evolution, and some patchy fog and/or low bases may develop late tonight and offer additional restrictions to flight weather. Overall improvement should be noted over the course of the day tmrw, especially during the planning phase hours of the forecast, but low base restrictions may be particularly stubborn/slow to lift into VFR.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.