textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain continues through tomorrow with an additional 1-3" possible and locally higher amounts to around 3-6" possible.

- This afternoon/evening's severe chances look to be more limited in nature, but still something to watch.

- Sunday onward brings a major heat wave with a pattern shift. Heat indices are expected to be in the 105 to 110 degree range next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

After a break in the rain this morning, showers and storms are beginning to redevelop over SEMO and are moving northeast while increasing in coverage. Scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected through this afternoon and becoming more scattered this evening with a relative lull overnight. Then as a sfc low slides along the stationary boundary to our north, coverage will begin to increase again early tomorrow. This afternoon and evening's severe concerns look to be more limited at this point due to the lack of instability recovery this morning/early afternoon. Still something to keep an eye on though.

The main threat looks to be more of the hydro threat through tomorrow. Most of the area is already saturated from prior rainfall. This afternoon's convection could produce more heavy rainfall across the area that could lead to flash flooding concerns. Tomorrow a northwest to southeast oriented outflow boundary might set up somewhere across the area and would act as a focus for potential training storms. This could lead to some localized considerable or major flash flooding for those areas. In addition to what has already fallen, an additional 1-3" of rain is expected through tomorrow night with locally higher amounts of 3-6" possible.

The overall pattern begins to shift on Sunday with upper ridging beginning to build into the region. Highs will soar into the 90s starting on Sunday with mid 90s starting on Monday and lasting through at least Friday. Dewpoints will climb into the mid 70s which will push heat indices into the 105 to 110 degree range throughout the week. A Heat Advisory or even Extreme Heat Warning will be necessary next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An active convective period will feature restricted bases and vsbys thru its entirety. Expect themost robust times of pcpn to be early this evening, again late tonight-early tmrw, and then again into the early planning phase hours of the forecast. Some improvement should be noted toward the end of the planning period, though small chances do linger.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.