textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and unsettled weather is expected through Friday. Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening and again late Friday night.

- After a relative lull in activity this weekend, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again on Tuesday.

- Widespread beneficial rains are forecast through the next week, with rainfall amounts around 1.5 to 3.0 inches currently forecast through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Very mild (near record warmth) and stormy weather is expected at times today through Friday. The region remains under an active W to SW H5 zonal flow pattern, with a parade of disturbances ejecting from synoptic trough over the Desert Southwest. For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, ongoing elevated convection along a warm front will continue to lift N and E of the I-64 corridor. Ahead of an approaching cold front, expecting additional clusters or line segments of convection with more shear/instability available to develop in southern and eastern MO by early this afternoon and move E-NE across the area through early this evening. SPC still has most of the area near and NW of the Ohio River in a slight risk, driven by hail and wind. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out either, mainly in southeast MO or southwest IL.

As the cold front moves into the region on Thursday, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop during the morning and afternoon hours. Right now, SPC has not introduced a severe risk for the forecast area, but would not be surprised if a few gusty hailers develop in the afternoon in west KY if some breaks in the clouds develop. The front will lift back to the north on Friday as another disturbance approaches from the central Great Plains. Our next chance of more widespread severe weather will be late Friday night into Saturday morning as a weakening MCS moves into the region from central Missouri. These storms will be in a weakening mode given the time of night of their arrival, but a few damaging wind gusts or even a brief spin-up tornado are possible near and west of the Ohio River, where SPC has introduced a marginal risk.

We will get a relative lull in precipitation and slightly cooler temperatures this weekend as the cold front briefly sinks south of the area, but will again lift north of the region on Monday through Tuesday. This will send temperatures again soaring to near record warm levels again. Another potentially more potent disturbance will move north of the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and another round of storms will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening across central/southern MO and move into the region. SPC has introduced a relatively rare slight risk for Day 2 in the Ozark Foothills, so the area of concern right now is rather small. However, given the potential higher end outcomes on the table, it will need to be closely watched in the coming days.

With several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected, the latest WPC QPF bring much-needed rainfall to the area through early next week, with widespread 1.5-3.0" totals currently forecast. However, with heavier rainfall rates possible under thunderstorms, pockets of higher amounts are certainly possible. Not too concerned with widespread flash flood or river flooding risks given how dry it has been, but localized flooding issues cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Two primary rounds of heavier shower and thunderstorm activity are expected through the forecast period. The first will be between roughly 20-03z and the second will be from 06-12z. Cigs this afternoon will be mainly low VFR, but will fall to MVFR overnight. Vsbys will remain VFR outside of heavier precipitation, when brief MVFR or IFR restrictions are possible. Outside of more erratic thunderstorm activity, winds will be steady from the S-SW around 6-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible this afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.