textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-50% chance of light snow east of the Mississippi River after midnight tonight. The best chances will be over the Evansville Tri State where a dusting will be possible on grassy and elevated surfaces.

- An Arctic cold front will pass Friday night and temperatures will plummet well below normal for Saturday through at least Tuesday. There is a 90% or greater chance of temperatures remaining below freezing throughout the Quad State from Friday night through at least Tuesday morning. Early morning wind chills will range from near zero in the north to 10 degrees in the far south from Sunday through Tuesday.

- Periods of light snow or flurries will be common across the Quad State Friday night through Saturday. Isolated areas could see a light dusting.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Southwest winds will increase quickly tonight, and the resulting warm advection will bring a chance of light snow to areas east of the Mississippi River after midnight. The 00Z GEFS indicates a 50-70% chance of measurable snow over southwest Indiana and adjacent southeast Illinois, while the ECENS has even higher chances. ConsShort PoPs were used to bring our pops up to 40-50% in that area, as the NBM is still too low. The NBM does spit out a few hundredths of QPF there which could result in a few tenths of an inch of snowfall. The warm advection will lead to warming temperatures overnight, and readings should be close to freezing, so accumulations are most likely to only be on elevated surface and in the grass. No travel impacts are expected at this time.

An Arctic cold front will pass Friday night as the first in a series of upper-level disturbances rotates through the region Friday night. With pockets of lift and the potential for some steep lapse rates aloft, the chance for light snow is increasing throughout the region Friday night and possibly into Saturday. The 00Z GEFS and ECENS indicate at least a 50% chance of measurable snow Friday night and Saturday generally along and east of the Mississippi River.

We collaborated with our northern and western neighbors to add 20-30% chances of snow to most of the Quad State Friday night. The exceptions were over southern portions of southeast Missouri and a small adjacent portion of the Purchase Area. The NBM actually has some 20% PoPs on Saturday mainly over the southeast half of the region. Isolated snow bursts could result in some minor accumulations Friday night and Saturday. However, the NBM has no QPF at this time, so there are no snow accumulations in this forecast. Given how cold it will be, some isolated travel issues cannot be completely ruled out at this time.

As for the cold air, after the initial surge early Saturday, a reinforcing shot will arrive Sunday night into Monday. The ensembles indicate a near certainty for temperatures to remain below freezing throughout the area from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning. Wind chills will be near zero over the northern half of the area each morning from Sunday through Tuesday. The chills will remain in the single digits over the southern half of the area each morning.

The flow pattern aloft relaxes toward mid-week, which will lead to a nice warm, as we attempt to scour out the cold air. Hopefully, the warm advection does not result in precipitation before temperatures have climbed safely above the freezing mark. The NBM brings small chance PoPs back to the Quad State Wednesday night and Thursday, but the ensembles indicate quite a bit uncertainty in the precipitation potential mid to late week, leading to a low confidence forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

An area of light snow will sweep eastward from KMVN through KEVV and KOWB overnight. There is a chance of MVFR visibility with the heavier snow, which is most likely at KEVV in the last few hours of the forecast.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.