textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 50-65% chance of precip across the Quad State Sunday night. Along and north of I-64 could possibly see some accumulating snowfall on grassy or elevated surfaces. Little to no impacts are expected due to warm antecedent conditions.

- A major pattern shift is in store for next week to more unsettled conditions. Near daily chances for rain exist with a decent signal for beneficial rainfall with a 60-85% chance of seeing over 0.5".

- With the pattern shift, temperatures will return to being above normal next week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Another warm day is in store today before a cold front comes through early tomorrow morning. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today. Elevated fire weather danger is possible in the Mark Twain portions of the Ozark Foothills again this afternoon. Tonight there is a small (about 20%) chance of some rain over the Evansville Tri- State and surrounding areas. Highs on Sunday will be cooler and much closer to normal (15-20 degrees colder than today).

Flow aloft becomes a lot more zonal as the cold front stalls out just to our south. A small area of PVA moves through along the boundary/weak deformation zone, coupled with a weak inverted trof with over running moisture. This set up Sunday night brings a 50-65% chance for precipitation across the Quad State. Compared to previous model runs, temperatures have trended down 2-3 degrees. This is most impactful along and north of the I-64 corridor where there is now the possibility of accumulating snowfall on elevated and grassy surfaces. Minimal impacts are expected given the warm antecedent conditions. Also, ensembles have been flip-flopping on the temperatures and they may very well flip back to the warmer solutions. The greatest chance for snowfall is in the 09-15Z range Monday with warming after that. SLRs look to be around the 7/8:1 range, so a very wet snow and possibly a mix at times.

After Monday there is a major pattern shift to a much more unsettled pattern, though there are still quite a few discrepancies to work out such as timing and amounts. Temperatures will warm again to above average through the weekend. There is agreement at multiple disturbances moving through which will bring near daily chances for precip Monday onward ranging from at least 30% to around 70% at times. Beneficial rain is in store with a 60-85% chance of seeing over 0.5" of rain Tuesday through Thursday. There is also a 30-70% chance of seeing over 1" of rain during this same time period. The greatest chances are in northern portions of SEMO, southern IL, and southwest IN.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 445 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Gridded time/height cross sections suggest moistening in the column from high down to mid level bases increasing over the back half of the forecast, with some VFR CIGS potentially by/through the planning phase hours. Winds tmrw will not be as robust as today, and will have some variance early before becoming established southerlies again during the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.