textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening, decreasing overnight. A low end threat for a few severe storms (5% chance) is in place for late this afternoon and evening for areas along the KY/TN border and the MO bootheel.

- There is a small chance (20-30%) of a few lingering showers on Saturday, mainly in the Kentucky Pennyrile and southwest Indiana. Otherwise, the weekend through mid next week looks dry. Our next chance for rain arrives later next week (Thursday into Friday) as a cold front sinks south across the area.

- After slightly cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) on Saturday, we heat back up Sunday through mid next week with 90 degree temperatures returning. The hottest two days look like Tuesday and Wednesday when highs are forecast to reach the mid 90s along with a good chance (50-70%) for heat index readings to exceed 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A weak surface boundary near the KY/TN border will lift north across the southeast half of our region this evening into tonight. This occurs as a mid level disturbance across northeast AR/southeast MO swings northeastward across our region. A good amount of clearing has occurred ahead of this wave across KY/TN which should allow decent instability to develop on the order of 1500-2000 j/kg MLCAPE by later this afternoon. 0-6 km shear isn't as robust as yesterday, but still should peak in the 20-25 kt range heading into this evening. Thus, the environment may be supportive of a few strong to severe storms. Damaging winds would likely be the main threat, even though DCAPE values likely remain below 800 j/kg as low level lapse rates struggle to get much higher than 7C. Looks like the primary window for severe may be from like 21-03z.

While a few lingering showers may occur across our east on Saturday, the main trough axis will be positioned such that the main threat should be primarily east of our cwa. Meanwhile, on Sunday a disturbance passing by to our northwest may allow some weakening showers or storms to sneak into parts of MO or IL either late in the day or into the evening/overnight. Still rather low confidence in this though, so PoPs remain silent, but at least a few models are showing this potential.

500mb heights start to rise Sunday as ridging expands northward. The ridge builds even further to around 597dm by Tuesday into Wednesday. This results in another prolonged period of late season heat for our region, although not quite as extreme as what we have already experienced this month. Pretty good bet that high temperatures reach 90 degrees for 4 or 5 consecutive days, with Tuesday/Wednesday being the hottest with some areas pushing above 95. Humidity levels remain quite high by September standards, with dew points largely in the lower 70s. This will result in heat index readings likely exceeding 100 on Tuesday and Wednesday, and could push near 105 in a few areas.

Ensemble guidance has been in fairly good agreement dropping a cold front through the region later in the week and bringing in a much cooler airmass (at or slightly below normal) by next weekend. During the transition a good chance for showers and storms exists Wednesday night into Thursday, possibly lingering into next Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Lingering MVFR cigs should gradually lift to VFR levels as we head towards mid afternoon. The main threat for convection looks like it will hold off until primarily this evening. KPAH/KOWB/KEVV are the most likely terminals to be impacted with cig/vsby restrictions likely especially in the heavier activity. Guidance is suggesting another low stratus deck in the low MVFR or IFR range early Saturday morning along with the possibility of some lower vsbys as well. Confidence is highest in the stratus deck but lower in the vsby reductions.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.