textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be well below normal through tonight before moderating back to seasonable values by Wednesday.

- Small chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, followed by very breezy conditions Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Shower and storm chances will gradually spread from north to south while increasing Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, with the best chances (80-90%) Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A few strong storms are possible, but it appears the primary severe threat likely remains north of us.

- Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by slightly cooler and less humid air to end the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Surface high pressure will slide east from the Central Plains into our area today, resulting in mainly clear skies, light northerly winds, and temperatures roughly 10 degrees below normal. Winds turn southwesterly again on Tuesday ahead of a disturbance sliding across the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will attempt to sink south across Illinois/Indiana accompanied by a few showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The instability/shear space will be greatest to our northeast, where a Day 2 marginal risk is in place. Moisture return ahead of this initial system is rather limited though (dew points struggling to reach 60 again) and may be a struggle to even get much lightning given the weak instability. Some convection may linger into Tuesday night before the boundary washes out as a stronger mid level wave traverses across the Midwest on Wednesday.

An unseasonably strong mid to upper level jet will develop and punch east across northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models have been fairly consistent keeping the best parameter space for severe focused north of our cwa with convection likely not sneaking into our area until late Wednesday evening or overnight. The boundary remains over us through Thursday, but the best upper level support will be far gone by then and the low level jet will weaken significantly compared to Wednesday. So while we may end up with a few strong storms Wednesday night and again Thursday afternoon or evening, the overall threat with both rounds looks marginal at this point. We may have some swaths of heavy rain with this system, but even that threat looks quite a bit lower now with only about a 40-50% chance at receiving at least 1".

Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter back into the area Friday into Saturday before another disturbance aloft spreads rain chances back into the area at some point Sunday into next Monday. Noticed the LREF has really backed off on total precipitation amounts over the next 10 days, with the chance at observing 3" now only around 25% which is basically half of what it was last night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions continue this TAF cycle. Light/calm winds will become northwesterly around 4-6 kts today and then become calm again this evening. FEW-SCT mid cloud this morning will transition to SCT diurnal cu late morning into the afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.