textproduct: Paducah

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-40% chance for spotty light showers today, with the greatest risk focused across the Evansville Tri-State region. An isolated shower also cannot be rule out on Friday.

- A widespread hard freeze is likely Friday night and Saturday night with lows plummeting into the 20s. Temperatures during the day will also be chilly with highs ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees on Friday and Saturday.

- Dry conditions are forecast this weekend through the middle of next week with temperatures moderating to near normal by Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 507 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A broad 500 mb trough is currently located over the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon, and will provide the lift needed to trigger a few spotty light rain showers. The greatest risk will be across southwest Indiana and portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky where rain chances peak at 20-40%. A returning isolated shower will also be possible on Friday as one final vort max moves through, but overall coverage will be less compared to today with only a 20% chance.

Breezy conditions due to a tight pressure gradient along with cloud cover across the northeast will help to keep temperatures at or above freezing for most locations overnight. However, the coldest airmass of the season arrives on Friday with 850 mb temps plummeting to around -5C. This translates to highs only in the mid to upper 40s, while slight moderation into the lower 50s is expected by Sunday. As a 1027 mb sfc high pressure builds south from Manitoba Friday night into Saturday, calm winds and clear skies will allow for a widespread hard freeze with low temperatures dipping down into the 20s Saturday and Sunday morning.

As the aformentioned trough begins to migrate east of the FA early next week, temperatures begin to moderate closer to normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather conditions will also persist as a cutoff 500 mb low is currently progged to remain south of the FA over the lower Mississippi River Valley. The LREF remains in good agreement with moisture struggling to advect north to produce measurable precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 507 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low VFR to MVFR cloud bases will persist across the region tonight into Friday afternoon as an upper-level low remains centered over the eastern Great Lakes. A few lingering showers will persist invof EVV and OWB through 03z. Winds will be steady to gusty from the N to NW, sustained at 6-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible Friday afternoon.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.