textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Rain/thunderstorm chances northern and central Oklahoma today and tonight. A few strong to severe storms possible, generally along and north of I-40. - Hot and humid towards end of the week into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A front/outflow boundaries are expected to move across portions of the fa today before stalling. Showers/storms will be possible near and north of the front and near any lingering outflow boundaries. There continues to be some question on how far south showers/storms will occur which will likely dependent on where the boundaries stall this afternoon but current thoughts are still generally near and north of I-40 with the highest chances in northern OK.

CAMs show development increasing early this morning across portions of N OK with maybe a lull in activity late morning/early afternoon before redevelopment occurs later this afternoon into tonight. Models show that the morning activity may be aided by a weak shortwave moving across the central Plains with the boundaries and heating aiding development this afternoon. The early activity may produce some gusty winds and locally heavy rain whereas some of the storms could become severe this afternoon/evening with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. Heavy rain will also remain a concern later today and tonight. Rain chances are expected to end early Friday.

Temperatures are expected to range from the low 90s in N OK to the mid/upper 90s along the Red River. Lows are then expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Models show mid/upper level high continuing to build into the southern Plains Friday and Saturday. This will lead to a drier forecast and hotter temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the mid 90s to around 100 with a few more locations reaching the century mark on Saturday compared to Friday. The humid airmass that has been in place over the area is not expected to go anywhere so the hot and humid conditions will see heat index values increasing with some locations probably hovering around heat index value of 105 Friday and Saturday.

Low temperatures will also be on the rise with lows in the low to mid 70s Friday night but in the mid to possibly upper 70s Saturday night.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the rest of the weekend into next week, it looks like the main story will be the hot and humid conditions. Models show the mid/upper high continuing to influence the region with the fa potentially ending up closer to the center of the high next week. Triple digit highs are expected to become more common across the fa. Heat index values will also be on the increase with triple digit heat index values likely occurring across the whole fa. Heat index values of 105 or higher will also likely increase in coverage becoming more common. With these heat index values, heat advisories will be likely with multiple days of advisories possible. This will likely be the longest period of these particular hot and humid conditions that we have seen so far this summer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Light southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail through most of the TAF period. A front is approaching northern Oklahoma and will bring low to moderate (30-50%) storm chances to the area toward early morning, then again this afternoon (slightly further south). Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 94 74 97 73 / 20 10 0 0 Hobart OK 97 72 100 72 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 99 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 91 69 98 72 / 40 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 91 73 97 74 / 60 30 0 0 Durant OK 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.