textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Low precipitation chances confined primarily to north Texas and southern Oklahoma through Thursday.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the middle of the week before triple digit heat returns by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon across portions of south-central and southeast Oklahoma. This will be an area of better low level moisture and in proximity to a residual MCV. Not out of the question to see a strong to possibly low end severe storm given the amount of instability that will be present (ML CAPE 1000-1500 J/kg).

Otherwise will see afternoon highs a couple of degrees below normal, ranging from the upper 80s to low and middle 90s, with east winds of 5 to 15 mph.

Most of the precipitation is expected to be diurnal in nature, but could see an isolated shower overnight along the Red River.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Upper ridge centered over the northern Plains and upper Midwest will elongate into the Great Lakes and New England Tuesday with a more easterly flow across the southern Plains. Much of the better forcing will remain well south of the area, however a weak shortwave will move west across the area during the day Tuesday and this may be sufficient for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop mainly along and south of I-40. Most locations will remain dry on Tuesday.

In addition, surface ridge will poke down south across the southern Plains and into Texas aiding in keeping temperatures in check with highs once again in the upper 80s and low 90s.

Again, not out of the question to see an isolated shower across southern Oklahoma into north Texas Tuesday night.

As we go into the day Wednesday the upper ridge reorientates itself from the northern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic region with an stronger wave moving into the southern Plains from the east. This should provide another chance of showers and storms to at least the eastern half of Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. A few strong storms once again look possible across southeast Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The upper ridge over the northern Plains is projected to decrease by a few decameters and reorient through the weak. The current consensus is that some form of upper ridging develops from the northern Rockies toward the Gulf Coast and then eventually evolving toward a more classic upper high over the central Rockies with ridging extending north into the Canadian Rockies. While this keeps the highest heat potential to the west, it does push us to warm back above seasonal averages toward the end of the week. This pattern does also suggest the precipitation chances will generally be low late this week, although some diurnal convection may be possible depending on the specifics of how the overall pattern evolves.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Most shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated late this afternoon, but a few storms remain across southeast OK, with low chances they could impact KDUA in the next hour before diminishing. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light easterly winds to prevail overnight with only a low probability for some patchy fog in southeast OK. More isolated-scattered storm development is expected tomorrow afternoon, most numerous across southern and central OK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 89 69 89 / 0 20 10 20 Hobart OK 68 90 67 90 / 10 20 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 69 91 68 91 / 10 30 10 10 Gage OK 66 91 65 90 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 69 88 69 89 / 0 10 0 10 Durant OK 71 89 70 89 / 10 40 10 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.