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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- There is risk for severe thunderstorm across parts of our area through at least Tuesday of next week.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible most afternoons across far western Oklahoma into western north Texas.

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend with a cooler weather by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning in association with two mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) from the remnants of last night's convection. A strong low-level jet (40 to 50 knots) will result in a continued risk of strong, southerly wind gusts from momentum transfer with any downdrafts. Showers may persist through mid-morning across far east-central/southeast Oklahoma as this activity gradually shifts to the east.

Another hot afternoon is expected across western Oklahoma into western north Texas on the eastern edge of the low-level thermal ridge with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s to mid 100s deg F. To the east, temperatures will range from the mid 80s to low 90s deg F.

The anomalous heat, gusty southerly winds, and low humidity will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in close proximity to the 100th meridian. One feature that will have to monitored this afternoon for the fire weather risk is the exact location of the dryline. There has been a signal/trend that the dryline may stay farther to the west than originally anticipated, which would keep the worst fire weather conditions to the west of the 100th meridian. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for far western Oklahoma into western north Texas for this afternoon.

With respect to severe weather, the probability for convection initiation (CI) at a given location along the dryline is low (10%) with no wave to provide synoptic-scale ascent/appreciable height falls across the Southern Plains. A warm elevated mixed layer (EML) will be a deterrent to convection (e.g., 700 mb temperatures ~13 deg C). Currently, the most likely areas to see CI are across western north Texas and northwest Oklahoma. Western north Texas will likely experience the hottest surface temperatures east of the dryline and northwest Oklahoma will be in close proximity to a surface low (i.e., more surface convergence). If thunderstorms develop, supercells are possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For Sunday, the probability for CI along the dryline is a only a little higher as stronger mid-level flow and subtle synoptic- scale ascent approaches from the west. Even so, with a warm elevated mixed layer remaining in place, thunderstorms are not a guarantee along the dryline. Currently, the most likely area for CI is across northwest Oklahoma, which will be closer to the strongest synopic-scale ascent. If thunderstorms develop, supercells are possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The chance of showers/storms may increase Sunday night with an attendant increase in isentropic ascent/warm air advection. Currently, the highest chance for this is across southeast Oklahoma.

For Monday, the primary shortwave trough is forecast to lift into the Central Plains. A highly unstable air mass is forecast to the east of the dryline with deep, low-level moisture and vertical wind shear sufficient for supercells. However, a couple synoptic- scale details currently temper the risk. First, the stronger forcing is to the north. Therefore, convective coverage along the dryline in Oklahoma and western north Texas remains uncertain with southern extent. The highest chance of storms and severe weather will be across northwestern into north central Oklahoma (i.e., in closer proximity to the wave). Farther to the south, low-level convergence along the dryline may still be sufficient for CI given a weaker cap than previous days. Second, weaker winds in the upper-levels (e.g., 300 to 200 mb) may result in more high- precipitation (HP) supercells and poor ventilation aloft. This may result in messier storm structures. However, given the magnitude of instability and low-level moisture, any supercells will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. By Monday night, a cold front will approach northwest Oklahoma with the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms along the boundary.

Depending on the location of the dryline, fire weather conditions may also be a concern Monday afternoon. Currently, it appears the dryline will be near or just east of the 100th meridian. Critical fire weather conditions are possible to the west of the dryline with gusty south-southwest winds and very low humidity.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For Tuesday, the risk of severe weather will be dependent on how far south the cold front advances to the southeast Monday night. Strong to severe thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon along the cold front as it advances to the southeast. The latest trend is a slower frontal passage, so a larger part of our area has a risk of storms on Tuesday.

While cooler weather is expected in the front's wake for Wednesday, another wave will approach with the potential for widespread showers/storms to the north of the front Wednesday into Thursday. Given these storms should be elevated (i.e., north of the front), the risk of any strong to severe thunderstorms would be limited to hail (modulated by the magnitude of elevated instability).

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Scattered thunderstorms, currently crossing southwest Oklahoma, may continue on its eastward track through the morning and potentially affect KOUN briefly after dawn. Today, gusty southerly winds are expected with LLWS forecast tonight. While there is a marginal risk of severe storms across western Oklahoma, chances are very low (less than 15%). Stratus is then forecast to advect into southern Oklahoma towards the end of the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 71 88 71 / 10 10 10 20 Hobart OK 98 70 94 69 / 10 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 94 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 20 Gage OK 99 69 96 67 / 10 10 20 10 Ponca City OK 92 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 30 Durant OK 89 73 89 75 / 10 10 10 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-010-014-021-022-033>036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083.