textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Chances for showers and storms focused across western OK and western north TX today, expanding east into the weekend.

- More chances for rain next Tuesday/Wednesday with a cold front.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week, but not as hot as recent weeks.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A line of showers is currently moving across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. This line is expected to continue moving into portions of western Oklahoma into the afternoon. As this line moves into western Oklahoma this afternoon, storm coverage should increase from north to south. Instability and shear will be sufficient for a few stronger wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values will continue to be on the higher side (1.75-2 inches), so efficient rainfall may lead to some flooding concerns. A few locations across western Oklahoma have already received over 2 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, so additional heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns in these areas.

Overall coverage and intensity should decrease after sunset this evening, until the low-level jet (LLJ) increases. Showers and thunderstorms, attendant to the strengthening LLJ, are expected to develop around midnight across the western third of the area.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The aforementioned showers and storms will likely linger into the morning, especially across north central Oklahoma. Lightning and brief periods of heavy rainfall will be possible with any activity that continues through Saturday morning.

A shortwave mid-level trough will continue to lift northward through the day Saturday, so additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon through the evening. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will support a few stronger storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Any showers and storms Saturday evening into the overnight hours, will shift to the east by Sunday morning. Mid-level heights increase by the afternoon, so may see afternoon highs get a few degrees warmer than days preceding.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As we go into next week our attention turns to the west and southwest. Large trough takes shape across the western CONUS Monday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo off the west coast of Mexico lifts north early in the week. Its remnant moisture looks to phase with the trough as we into Tuesday. Moisture plume ahead of these features will bring increasing rain chances to the area by Tuesday as well.

Uncertainty increases beyond this point as models diverge with regards to timing. Although both the GFS and the Euro show a closed low, the Euro is farther south and becomes a bit more cut off from the main flow and is therefore slower with its eastward progress through the week. The Euro's trough and the remnants of Polo also rotate around each other over Arizona and New Mexico before ejecting out by Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS is more progressive and has the system coming through late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a more spring-time severe weather look. Either way looks to bring the best chance of widespread beneficial rainfall that we have seen in quite some time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Isolated showers with embedded storm activity will persist impacting a few of our terminals through at least 04Z. Ceilings high but impacted terminals could briefly lower to an MVFR category in reduced visibilities in rain and variable wind gusts from storm outflow up to 30 mph. After 04Z probabilities for TSRA decrease to 30% up through 12Z but will keep a PROB30 longer to 16Z in northcentral Oklahoma at terminals KPNC & KSWO. By late morning after 17Z all terminals will remain in a VFR category and dry through the end of the forecast period. Weak low pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies will keep surface winds out of the south although some terminals may see periods of light variable winds tonight. By 17Z southerly surface winds speeds become sustained around 10 kts with gusts at 15-20 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 90 70 91 / 20 30 40 10 Hobart OK 69 90 68 92 / 60 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 96 70 98 / 20 20 20 10 Gage OK 64 88 63 87 / 50 20 30 0 Ponca City OK 66 85 66 85 / 50 70 80 20 Durant OK 68 95 69 97 / 0 0 20 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.