textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- There is risk for severe thunderstorm across parts of our area through at least Tuesday of next week.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible most afternoons across far western Oklahoma into western north Texas.

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend with a cooler weather by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The trend continues with low chances for dryline driven convection, fire weather west of the dryline, heat out west, and gusty winds areawide.

Fire Wx: Low humidity and gusty south winds will combine over volatile fuels to produce elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in our far western counties this afternoon. There is some question about the RH contribution to RFTI as recent model runs keep the dryline a bit farther west as compared to yesterday's runs (recent observations seem to be in line with this trend). Nevertheless, breezy winds will still be a factor contributing to elevated fire weather.

Severe Storms: This evening will bring low chances (~10%) for isolated severe storms off the dryline out west. Main threats would be hail and wind. Strong capping will be a limiting factor. Models do hint at a subtle wave moving through this afternoon, but will it be enough? Western north Texas (due to stronger surface heating) and northwest Oklahoma (due to closer proximity to the surface low) will be the most likely areas for storms.

Heat: Temperatures will again climb to the triple digit mark across western Oklahoma and western north Texas, while east of the dryline we'll see more upper 80s and 90s. Slightly cooler than yesterday, but not by much. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.

Wind: Gusty south winds will again be the rule today, especially near the Wichita mountains in southwest Oklahoma. Winds will likely peak in the late afternoon / early evening as afternoon mixing intersects with the developing low level jet. Winds will remain gusty overnight, especially over northern Oklahoma where wind speeds may actually increase toward dawn.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Gusty winds, fire weather (western counties), and a potential for severe storms continue both Sunday and Monday.

Fire Wx: Sunday's fire weather risk will be focused in northwest Oklahoma where gusty south winds (20 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph) and low RH values (teens) will combine over volatile fuels (90-95th percentile) producing critical fire danger conditions. We've issued an RFW for this area.

Monday's fire risk will depend partly on the location of the dryline, currently forecast to setup near or just east of the 100th meridian. With continued gusty south winds, we could see critical fire weather conditions along the far western edge of our forecast area.

Storms: Chances for dryline convection will be slightly higher on Sunday (but, still low: ~20-30%) with slightly better upper level forcing. Northwest Oklahoma remains the most likely location for CI. These storms will carry a severe hail/wind risk. Additionally, warm air advection will give us a chance for showers and storms across southeast Oklahoma Sunday evening/night.

Storm chances increase on Monday as the upper low approaches. Northern Oklahoma again looks to be favored for dryline convection (closer to the upper forcing). The environment will support large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Additionally, warm air advection will continue over south central Oklahoma, keeping chances for showers and storms in place there. This activity will be messier, but a strong storm or two can't be ruled out. Another round of storms (potentially strong to severe) will be possible Monday night as a cold front enters northern Oklahoma.

Wind: As the pressure gradient tightens, surface winds are expected to become quite gusty early Sunday through Monday, with the potential for gusts to 40 mph across northern Oklahoma both days. We've issued a wind advisory for Sunday.

Day

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For Tuesday, the risk of severe weather will be dependent on how far south the cold front advances to the southeast Monday night. Strong to severe thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon along the cold front as it advances to the southeast. The latest trend is a slower frontal passage, so a larger part of our area has a risk of storms on Tuesday.

While cooler weather is expected in the front's wake for Wednesday, another wave will approach with the potential for widespread showers/storms to the north of the front Wednesday into Thursday. Given these storms should be elevated (i.e., north of the front), the risk of any strong to severe thunderstorms would be limited to hail (modulated by the magnitude of elevated instability).

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Strong, gusty south winds are expected to continue through today into tomorrow across the area. Low-level wind shear is expected tonight, especially after midnight with the strengthening low- level jet. Low-mid clouds will increase later tonight into tomorrow morning, but as of now ceilings are expected to remain >3000 ft (VFR).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 87 71 86 / 0 10 20 20 Hobart OK 69 93 69 93 / 10 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 70 91 71 92 / 0 10 10 30 Gage OK 68 95 67 96 / 10 20 20 20 Ponca City OK 71 90 71 90 / 10 20 20 10 Durant OK 72 89 75 88 / 10 10 40 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-010- 014-021-022-033>036.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>013.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083.