textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses.

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Strong to severe storms are continuing to push southeastward out of southeast Oklahoma and into north Texas early this morning. Post- frontal temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still near normal for this time of year, today with highs in the upper 80s to 90s.

Additional storms are expected Sunday afternoon along lingering outflow boundaries and a weak differential heating boundary draped across southern Oklahoma. Despite weak northwest flow, shear will be modest enough to support strong to severe updrafts. Lapse rates will be fairly steep >8 deg C/km with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds. The threat for strong to severe storms will likely be confined to the afternoon and evening hours across portions of southern Oklahoma and southward into western north Texas.

Any Independence Day activities that are scheduled or were moved to today will need to be on alert for both heat and lightning/damaging winds, especially across southern Oklahoma into western north Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Most of any storm activity will end by late tonight. A shortwave approaching Arkansas Monday will keep Oklahoma under mostly northerly flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be hot and near normal in the 90s with very low chances for storms to develop Monday afternoon. However, a few models are suggesting some isolated convection trying to develop in the vicinity of the shortwave. Weak effective bulk shear would not support long-lived updrafts, but a strong enough storm for small hail and downdrafts capable of producing gusty winds.

Temperatures will slowly approach triple digits again by Tuesday with the upper ridge spreading eastward into Oklahoma and bringing height rises. Despite diurnal convection on the higher terrain out west, the ridge spreading eastward will bring more of a northerly flow aloft, with little to no chances for showers and storms expected.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

By midweek, the upper ridge will build westward towards the Pacific Coast of Southern Cali. This will bring a return to northwesterly flow aloft and warm downsloping adiabatic heating. Thus, widespread near to above triple digit heat is forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, diurnally driven thunderstorms along the higher terrain to the west-northwest, driven by embedded disturbances in the flow across the Plains will bring increasing shower and storm chances to Oklahoma, especially western into northern Oklahoma, during the evening and into the overnight hours both days.

The ridge will build northward into the Rockies by the end of the week and into the weekend with a strong shortwave trough across the Plains. This may bring some relief to the triple digit heat and more widespread chances for rain across the forecast area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

East-northeasterly winds are expected across much of the area today. There is a chance for storms to develop across the Red River this afternoon into the overnight hours, potentially affecting southern TAF sites. With any storm that develops, hail and strong winds will be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 93 71 94 71 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 96 69 97 71 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 99 71 97 72 / 20 20 0 0 Gage OK 94 67 95 70 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 88 70 90 70 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 95 74 94 74 / 50 20 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.