textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Scattered storms today. Isolated strong storms possible.

- Increasing rain and storm chances tonight and into the weekend. A few storms could become strong to severe.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a potential for triple digit heat.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A shortwave is moving northeast from Mexico toward southern Texas this morning with showers and storms moving from Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas into Texas. The NAM and GFS forecast this wave through northern Texas into Oklahoma this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as this wave approaches. The lowest convective inhibition is forecast to be across the southeast Oklahoma so the earliest/most likely precipitation potential will be there. A number of CAMs (high-res NAM, ARW, Fv3, some recent runs of the RAP) do show some scattered development from western north Texas into southwest and north central Oklahoma including areas farther north than where NBM has mentionable POPs for today, so have expanded the area of 20% POPs farther north. The models that do develop precipitation suggest that some locally higher POPs might be needed somewhere along this axis. But the question is exactly where, especially since CIN is expected to be a bit higher in the west than in the southeast. Will at least get the mention of showers/storms in the forecast and will watch the trends through the day. Instability will be sufficient for some isolated strong and perhaps marginally severe storms (it is June after all), but wind shear is weak and organized severe weather activity is not expected.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

There may be a brief minimum in precipitation coverage this evening as the shortwave moves to the northeast and the airmass diurnally stabilizes. However the larger scale upper low over Chihuahua will begin to slowly drift northeastward into Texas and toward the forecast area. Storm chances will increase again tonight (primarily after midnight) with the approach of this low, with shower/storm chances persisting through Sunday as this low opens up into a trough and slowly moves over the area. With the current project timing of this low/trough, rain chances will begin decreasing Sunday afternoon and Sunday night from west to east.

Precipitable water values are projected to be very high on Saturday. PW values of 1.5 inches or higher are forecast over almost all of the area on Saturday with values of 2+ inches forecast Saturday and or Saturday night across south central and southeast Oklahoma and perhaps portions of central Oklahoma. With this, there will be the potential of locally heavy rainfall, especially in the southeast. There will be the potential of multiple rounds of storms in the proximity of this slow-moving upper low, but current CAMs suggest more occasional showers/storms rather than longer-duration periods of storms in general. Local flooding will be a concern, especially if duration of showers and storms is more prolonged.

Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible again on Saturday afternoon/Saturday night, with the best potential across north Texas and southern Oklahoma where instability will be the highest. Wind shear is still progged by most models to be relatively weak Saturday/Saturday night, although somewhat higher than today.

With the widespread clouds and precipitation, high temperatures will be near or below early June normal temperatures. But that will change.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

After the upper low/trough move to the northeast late Sunday, upper ridging builds over the southern/central Plains and the upper flow retreats to the north. This shifts us back into a generally dry and warm pattern. The ECMWF produces some QPF Monday night in north central Oklahoma with the potential of storms moving in from Kansas, but otherwise the week looks dry. Temperatures will warm through the week as the ridge builds with triple digit highs returning to the west and the north central Oklahoma wheat belt.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

MVFR-level stratus will continue at terminals near and east of I-44/I-35 this morning, with expected clearing/dissipation generally towards the 15-17 UTC timeframe.

Otherwise, widely scattered convection is expected across the region Friday afternoon, evening and night. Have added PROB30 groups to account for this potential, with most terminals likely to remain "storm-free" during the period. Thunder chances will remain most persistent near and south of the Red River into early Saturday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 70 82 68 / 20 20 70 90 Hobart OK 92 68 84 66 / 20 30 70 70 Wichita Falls TX 90 68 85 67 / 30 40 70 70 Gage OK 93 69 85 64 / 20 20 50 40 Ponca City OK 90 72 84 68 / 10 10 40 80 Durant OK 85 72 83 71 / 40 40 70 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.