textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 453 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Above-normal temperatures expected through Thursday, cooling closer to average Friday into the weekend.

- Next chance for rain is late Saturday into Sunday, with most likely amounts of a quarter inch to an inch of rain across the area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rather pleasant weather conditions are the story today with temperatures in the 60s and 70s this afternoon with light northerly winds. Changes are expected tonight as an amplifying trough over the eastern US sends a chillier airmass southward into the area. The core of the colder airmass will remain to our northeast, but expect temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s overnight as surface ridging builds into the region. Temperatures may be cool enough across northern into north-central OK for a frost or even a light freeze in the more sheltered locations, but did not go with any headline products as most of these locations have already seen a frost/freeze this season and/or are well past their average first freeze date.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Winds will become easterly on Friday as the surface ridge axis positions to our east. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees cooler in most areas compared to Thursday, with readings generally in the mid 50s (north) to mid 60s (south). Another cool night is then in store Friday night with a frost/freeze once again possible across portions of northern into north-central OK.

Saturday will be a bit of a transition day as troughing to our west approaches the area. Winds will become southeast through the day but will be recycling in the cooler/drier airmass to the east so don't expect much in the way of warmer temperatures. In fact, with increasing clouds some areas in western OK may struggle to get much past 50 degrees. Shower chances will begin to increase from the west Saturday afternoon, but the expectation is that bulk of the steadier rain will hold off until later Saturday night into Sunday.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rain chances start to increase from the west Saturday evening and overnight, continuing through the day Sunday, though there remain significant synoptic uncertainties in the path and timing of the upper wave. Most ensemble members track the central precipitation axis somewhere between I-40 and well south of the Red River (through central Texas), though there are a few outliers on either side. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches appear likely along that axis (but, again, this could be southwest of our forecast area). A few embedded thunderstorms may be possible, but instability may be a limiting factor.

Uncertainty in the temperature forecast peaks on Sunday, largely due to the aforementioned synoptic / precipitation uncertainties. A few representative interquartile ranges are copied below:

- Ponca City / Woodward / Oklahoma City: 45 to 55 - Durant: 52 to 59 - Lawton / Hobart: 49 to 62 - Wichita Falls: 52 to 70

Higher confidence in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday once the wave passes where we should see highs in the 50s to lower 60s with some cloudiness (but no rain). From there we transition into more southwesterly flow and the potential for active weather that brings.

Day

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Clear skies and light northeast winds expected overnight with sunny skies Friday. Winds will shift to the southeast during the afternoon hours tomorrow at both WWR/CSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 40 57 38 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 43 59 42 56 / 0 0 0 50 Wichita Falls TX 46 64 44 61 / 0 0 0 40 Gage OK 34 58 34 53 / 0 0 0 50 Ponca City OK 34 55 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 64 41 61 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.