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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Hot and dry conditions are expected this weekend into next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected most days this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The 596 dam subtropical ridge across the southwestern U.S. will move and expand eastward toward the Southern Plains today. With the ridge overhead, today marks the return to hot and dry conditions for the foreseeable future. High temperatures will range from ~100 to 105 deg F across the entire area this afternoon, which is around 10 degrees above normal for late August.

Strengthening lee cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains will result in breezy south to south-southwest winds this afternoon with the strongest winds across northwest Oklahoma. These winds, combined with relative humidity falling to near or just below 20% from the hot temperatures, will result in elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma into portions of western north Texas. With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires to low-end large fires this afternoon into the early evening. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) was issued for this afternoon.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

No significant changes to the overall synoptic-scale pattern will occur on Sunday and Monday with the subtropical ridge remaining the main influence on the weather across the Southern Plains.

High temperatures will continue to range from around 100 to 105 deg F with breezy southerly winds and dry conditions. These breezy winds, combined with low relative humidity, will result in continued elevated fire weather conditions--especially across the west, where wind speeds will be higher and relative humidity values will be lower (~20% or lower). Fire Danger Statements (RFDs) will likely be needed on both days.

Depending on the amount of moisture return from southerly winds, Heat Advisories could be needed. However, dew points have generally been mixing out in the afternoon (likely due to the ongoing drought and the more limited evapotranspiration). If this trend continues, it would keep heat index values close to the air temperatures.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The hot and dry conditions will continue into next week with no evidence of any impactful synoptic-scale pattern change through the end of the week. The subtropical ridge will continue to be the primary influence of weather across the Southern Plains with agreement among deterministic and ensemble NWP.

The probabilistic National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast has very little spread among the 10th and 90th percentile temperature forecast with even the 10th percentile several degrees above- normal. As a result, there is a high confidence that above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F will persist all of next week. Bottom line--expect a heatwave next week.

Drought conditions will worsen with the subtropical ridge blocking any weather systems that would bring rainfall across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions will continue along with very dry fuels. The total fire environment will continue to be susceptible to initial attack fires to low-end large fires.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals. An occasionally gusty south-southwesterly wind across western and central Oklahoma will relax near sunset. Otherwise, monitoring potential for low-level wind shear across far northern Oklahoma during the predawn Sunday, on the periphery of an emerging nocturnal low-level jet.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 103 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 103 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>008- 010>013-017>020.

TX...None.