textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Patchy fog possible late tonight into Wednesday morning across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday. Some of the storms may become strong.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the end of the week before triple digit heat returns over the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Upper ridge across the Upper Midwest will keep us in an easterly flow regime today with a couple of minor shortwave traversing the southern Plains into Texas. Similar setup as yesterday, but with less shower and thunderstorm activity. Still anticipate a few showers and storms this afternoon with the best chance across southern Oklahoma with the possibility of isolated activity farther north. Any activity that does develop will be mainly diurnally driven and is expected to dissipate rather quickly this evening.

Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon will again top out a few degrees below normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight with clear skies, light winds and near surface humidity near saturation have included some patchy fog across southern Oklahoma and portions of north Texas toward the morning hours.

Another, stronger wave will approach the area late tonight bringing a chance or rain right around sunrise across the southeast.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The aforementioned shortwave will move westward across the area on Wednesday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will remain along and southeast of I-44 over into eastern Oklahoma. This along with the associated easterly low level flow and cloud cover will again keep temperatures in check with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Center of upper ridge becomes centered from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with low level southerly flow becomes reestablished across the southern Plains. This will allow a shortwave across Texas to lift northward toward the area bringing a chance of shower/thunderstorms across portions of western north Texas into southern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Another wave will approach by late Thursday night for another round of activity into the day Friday.

Cooler than normal temperatures also continue both Wednesday and Thursday as well.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The upper pattern begins to shift towards the end of the week into the weekend with the easterly flow ending over the region and the axis of the upper ridge trying to build over the western U.S. At the sfc, winds will also become more south to southwesterly. This will lead to a warm up to above average temperatures starting over the weekend with highs back into the mid/upper 90s. Triple digit heat indices will also become possible again.

In terms of rain, there are some chances on Friday as another mid- lvl disturbance moves across the Southern Plains but with the pattern shift rain chances are currently expected to shut off this weekend and continue into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

While brief stints of lowered/changeable category are possible for terminals near and south of I-40 through the period, generally VFR category is currently forecast.

Scattered (diurnal) thunderstorms are again forecast early this afternoon into evening, with the main aviation impact being brief vis reductions.

With a similar (moist) airmass expected to remain in place, and with expected light winds and mostly clear skies, another round of predawn into mid-morning fog-stratus is expected near the Red River. While explicit mentions are confined to KDUA, reduced category will be possible as far west/north as KLAW/KSPS/KOKC/KOUN.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 89 70 90 / 0 20 10 10 Hobart OK 68 90 68 90 / 10 20 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 69 91 69 91 / 10 20 20 40 Gage OK 67 91 67 92 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 70 89 71 90 / 0 20 0 10 Durant OK 71 89 71 90 / 10 50 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.