textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Periods of heavy rain are expected from this afternoon through at least Thursday morning. Flash flooding is possible in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Chance of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Line(s) of storms will continue to make its way slowly east across the area this morning as upper low spins across southwest Kansas. Rain and storms will continue to be likely along and ahead of a psuedo-dryline pushing east across western Oklahoma during the first part of the day. Heavy, potentially flooding rainfall will continue to be a concern, at least through the morning hours. Flood Watch will be maintained through midday today.

To the west of the dryline and south of approaching cold front an area of dry and warm conditions will develop with that area seeing daytime temps once again climb into the mid/upper 80s and lower 90s. While east of the dryline better moisture and daytime heating may result in some intensification of the convection leading to a chance for a few strong storms.

Meanwhile as the upper low translates east and surface low drops south though western Oklahoma into north Texas wrap-around rain will slide back south across northern into central sections of the state providing some locations another shot of rain. Also this area will be under the upper low increasing mid-level lapse rates, although they still are marginal for severe. A few stronger storms still appear possible across the north.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Upper low opens up Thursday night into Friday and continues to progress slowly eastward, rain chances will also shift south and east during the day Friday with most locations outside of southeast Oklahoma becoming rain-free. Surface cold front will also slide south and east through the the area bringing cooler temperatures to Oklahoma and north Texas. Highs will range from the upper 60s in the north to near 80 in far southeast Oklahoma.

The residual trough axis will remain stretched from northeast to southwest across the area Friday and Saturday. This will keep at least some chance of rain in the forecast across the south and southeast into the first part of the weekend.

With cooler surface ridge still nosing down through the area temperatures will again be below normal on Saturday with highs in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Low precip chances linger in the south into Sunday, otherwise we get a little reinforcing shot of cooler air moving south through the Southern Plains Sunday, but with clear skies expect temperatures on Sunday to be a few degrees warmer, but only a degree or two above normal.

By early next week western ridge builds east across Texas and Oklahoma with better westerly flow to our north resulting in a warming trend and dry conditions. Temperatures climb back into the 90s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Stratus and areas of rain/thunder are expected to continue yielding reduced category this afternoon, evening and night. The most persistently degraded category (as low as IFR) is expected at KDUA and KPNC during the upcoming period.

A surface front, likely to be convectively enhanced, will continue moving southward into Friday morning, with persistent stratus and areas of rain likely near and behind this feature. A gusty north/northeasterly wind is also expected in the post-front.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 61 70 56 / 40 60 40 10 Hobart OK 87 61 72 56 / 20 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 87 63 75 58 / 20 20 20 10 Gage OK 79 53 68 48 / 40 60 10 0 Ponca City OK 77 58 69 52 / 70 70 10 0 Durant OK 81 67 79 63 / 100 80 60 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ032-040>043- 046>048-050>052.

TX...None.