textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 517 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Low chances (20-30%) of light rain overnight.

- Above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions expected into middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Mild/above normal temperatures are occurring today under an increasing veil of high clouds.

Satellite water vapor imagery depicts a mid-level shortwave trough now progressing eastward from southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Numerical models show this feature propagating over the southern Plains tonight. As it does, forcing/ascent will increase sufficiently to saturate the mid-levels of the atmosphere, but forecast soundings show a notably dry low-level atmosphere below about 700 mb. DESI ensemble probabilities suggests up to a 40% chance of measurable precipitation over primarily central and north- central Oklahoma during the 03-09z timeframe, with <10% probability of localized 0.25" amounts in the same areas. Expect that it will be very difficult for precipitation to reach the surface, and virga will be common. However a few sites north of Interstate 44 and east of Interstate 35 will probably measure light rain amounts. The system will pass east of the area by sunrise.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Skies will clear early Friday and light northerly winds will set in behind the departing shortwave trough. Temperatures looks to remain about 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages...generally in the 60s. A secondary shortwave trough will pass in dry ambient northwesterly flow late Friday/early Saturday, but forcing and the atmospheric column do not currently look to support anything more than passing mid-level clouds.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Sunday and Monday (possibly Tuesday) will present some concern for elevated fire weather. Renewed southerly breezes will strengthen Sunday with dry return flow. A weak surface low/front will progress the area on Monday, bringing veered downslope winds that will promote +20 degree temperature anomalies and particularly dry air over western Oklahoma.

The model blends continue to support low chance (20-30%) precipitation probabilities at the end of the forecast period, late Wednesday and into Thursday. Recent medium range guidance appears to be trending weaker, more progressive, and a little northward with the weather system of interest for the middle of next week, so we will need to closely monitor whether or not this system will truly bring a chance of precipitation, or instead threaten to bring a wind threat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light southeasterly winds will become more northerly overnight (with some variability in direction) as a surface low traverses the Red River valley. This feature may also trigger a few light, elevated showers mainly in central to north central Oklahoma between 06Z and 12Z.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 43 62 36 56 / 30 0 10 0 Hobart OK 37 65 35 64 / 20 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 42 69 39 65 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 33 61 31 63 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 41 59 31 54 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 49 69 44 62 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.