textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 432 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Low shower and storm chances late Tuesday and Wednesday across northern Oklahoma with increasing chances late this week.

- Hot midweek particularly across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Elevated fire weather will be the main story today with near advisory level heat being a secondary concern.

Low afternoon humidities in the 15 to 20 percent range will drive an area of elevated RFTIs across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. With ERCs near the 90th percentile, we will be issuing an RFD for these counties. Winds will generally be south to south southwesterly at around 10 mph. Similar to previous forecasts, dewpoints were lowered from the NBM to account for the expected eastward mixing of drier air.

Afternoon heat indices are forecast to reach into the 100-105 degree range with HREF probabilities of reaching 105 degrees around 10-20% across most of the forecast area. The greatest impacts will be in southeast Oklahoma where clear skies and calm winds will result in high WBGT risk.

With a surface front approaching from Kansas, today will see a very low chance (10%) for a few showers and storms to develop this afternoon and evening in northwest Oklahoma. The main impacts will be a risk for lightning fire starts, potential for dry downbursts, and some relief from the heat with associated cloud cover. Little to no rain accumulation is expected. These very low chances will continue overnight into early Wednesday morning, spreading east across northern Oklahoma.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

With the cold front stalling near the OK / KS border, rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday and Thursday. Increased surface moisture will also result in higher heat indices (while mitigating against any fire risk).

For Wednesday, keeping 10-20% rain chances through the day across northern Oklahoma, associated with the aforementioned front. Again, rainfall amounts will likely be meager to none, with lightning and potential downburst winds being the main impacts of any storms that develop.

Higher chances (30-60%) arrive Thursday night as a subtle upper level wave moves across the area, mainly impacting northern Oklahoma.

Heat impacts will be a bit more complicated with potential rain and cloud cover offering some relief in the north (particularly on Thursday), while higher dewpoints push heat indices up. Heat impacts will be most likely along and near the Red River.

Day

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rain chances (20-40%) continue into Friday as the upper wave moves through and the ridge is briefly shoved to the west. With the higher chances of rain, uncertainty in max temperatures is higher for the late week period, particularly across northern Oklahoma. As we move into early next week, it does appear the ridge starts to shift back east, bringing back a hot and dry pattern.

Day

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period with southeasterly winds veering to the south/southwest by late morning. A frontal boundary, which currently remains over Kansas, is anticipated to move into far northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening. Considerable uncertainty exists with frontal progression, but the latest guidance suggests the boundary remains northwest of KWWR. There is a low chance of gusty winds near KWWR by evening as a few showers or storms try to develop near the boundary. Measurable precipitation is unlikely as rain will likely evaporate, but the evaporative cooling could lead to strong, gusty winds.

Thompson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 105 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 71 101 70 / 10 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 100 77 100 74 / 0 10 30 20 Durant OK 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.