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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- More widespread chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week

- Above normal temperatures continue.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Moderate rain across northwest OK continues to lift north of the area with a trailing line of scattered rain showers across portions of north-central into central OK. Expect any additional rainfall amounts to be very light, generally under a tenth of an inch through the morning. Decreasing clouds and drier conditions are expected by this afternoon, though with the mid-level moisture plume remaining over the area and some subtle warm air advection continuing, can't completely rule out a few isolated showers through tonight (also hinted at in some of the CAM guidance).

Highs today will be mild once again, generally in the mid 70s for most with readings near 80 closer to the Red River.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Mild conditions are forecast to continue into Wednesday and Thursday as our area remains under broad southwest flow aloft. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezier conditions, especially Wednesday afternoon, with south winds gusting to near 25-30 mph across the northern half of the area. Southerly winds and rising heights during this period will bring a slight warming trend as well, with highs expected to return to the low 80s each afternoon across much of the area.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A more active pattern is forecast for the long term period as troughing over the western US helps direct tropical moisture from Vance across the eastern Pacific northward over the southern Plains by late Thursday into Friday. Even though it appears most of the area can expect at least some rain (PoPs >60% Friday into Friday night) ensemble guidance continues to favor southwest/western portions of the area for the highest rainfall totals. Probabilities for at least an inch of rain are currently around 50-70% across southwest OK and western north TX but taper off to only about 10-20% along and east of I-35. The wave is expected to exit to the northeast early on Saturday, with drier conditions now expected by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.

Models then show an amplification of the western US trough as it moves into the central US later Sunday into early next week. Details remain unclear at this range but at the very least expect additional rain chances to return to the area. Depending how the system evolves will also have to watch for the potential for severe weather, heavy rain, and/or high winds if the higher amplitude model solutions come to fruition.

Ware

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The trough bringing rain to mainly northwest Oklahoma is moving a bit faster than forecast. IFR to potentially LIFR conditions are possible at KCSM and KWWR, with highest chances of LIFR at KCSM during the early morning hours. Rain should exit our CWA early Tuesday morning, based on latest trends. Although NBM has skies clearing relatively quickly during the day, there are signs among some short-term models that stratus hangs around much of the day. As it stands, expect VFR conditions by as late as mid-day. However, there is the potential for MVFR conditions to linger over KWWR and KCSM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 61 80 63 / 30 0 10 0 Hobart OK 76 60 80 61 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 61 83 63 / 20 0 10 0 Gage OK 73 57 80 58 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 60 82 62 / 30 10 10 0 Durant OK 81 59 84 63 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.