textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 455 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Dry with above/well above average temperatures through the week, including some near record or record highs.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The Earth's orbit says that we officially began winter this morning at 9:03 AM CST. The weather pattern says not so fast my friend... at least here in the southern Plains.

Above average temperatures continue today, although some stratus that moved into north Texas and far southern Oklahoma has slowed today's warming, but these clouds are diminishing.

Overnight the southerly winds will continue to bring more low- level moisture into the area and stratus will redevelop and spread farther north overnight. The clouds and southerly winds will keep low temperatures warmer Monday morning than this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Although stratus will persist in Monday morning across much of the area, these clouds will erode through the late morning and afternoon. Much warmer low-level temperatures will be spreading into the area and highs are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees warmer Monday than today.

On Tuesday, there is some signal of a cold front approaching and perhaps moving into far northern Oklahoma. But even if it does move into northern Oklahoma, it is not expected to move very far into the area before stalling and retreating, and temperatures are only slightly cooler north of the boundary. The NAM is holding on to the idea suggesting there could be some persistent low cloud development in north central Oklahoma near the boundary and is keeping the explicit surface temperature forecast much cooler than other models where these clouds develop. This is a significant outlier solution though and have not modified forecast from the NBM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

The upper ridge over the region will continue into at least the middle of the week continuing the warming trend that currently is forecast to peak areawide on Christmas day although well above average temperatures will probably continue for the rest of the week. The potential for record or near record temperatures will also continue with both record highs and warm lows potentially being set.

As for Christmas Day, low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s to around 60 with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area. These forecast highs and lows would break records at all 3 official climate sites (Oklahoma City, Lawton, Wichita Falls).

Despite the increasing moisture/dewpoints across the area this week, the forecast remains dry into next weekend with unfortunately no chances for precipitation.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Today features breezy north winds and cooler temperatures (50s / 60s) behind a front that is moving through. Currently the front is draped southeast of the I-44 corridor. Fire weather will be limited by higher RH values (RH minimums in southern OK and north TX are expected to be in the mid 30s).

Winds will decrease later this afternoon, becoming light overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. There's also a low chance for some brief low level wind shear in northwest Oklahoma toward morning.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 68 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 41 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 46 73 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 38 75 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 41 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 48 69 58 77 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.