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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon with continued fire weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday.

- Strong winds are expected across western Oklahoma this afternoon with southwest wind gusts between 40 to 55 mph.

- Near-record warmth is expected on Tuesday with highs 70s and 80s.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire weather will be the primary concern today as gusty southwest winds and a drier airmass move into the region. See the Fire Weather discussion below for more details. Otherwise, downslope flow and dry air will contribute to near record or record high temperatures across the area this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Additionally, strong mixing into an intense mid level jet and a tightening pressure gradient will lead to the potential for strong wind gusts, especially across western into central OK. Maximum gusts of 40 to 55 mph (strongest across northwest OK) will be possible, with isolated gusts near 60 mph not out of the question. The main limiting factor will be an extensive cirrus shield which will likely keep us from achieving the maximum degree of mixing, though the HREF continues to indicate the possibility of cirrus decreasing between 4 and 6 PM across northwest Oklahoma.

The dryline/Pacific front will push eastward tonight, bringing the very dry airmass across the rest of the area overnight leading to poor overnight RH recovery. Slightly cooler air will move in behind the front, with lows in the upper 30s northwest to low 50s southeast.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1248 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire weather will continue to be a concern Wednesday into Thursday as dry air and breezy southwest/west winds persist (see further details in the Fire Weather discussion below). Temperatures will remain above average Wednesday and Thursday, though (relatively) cooler temperatures will move in Thursday as winds become northwesterly.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Temperatures cool further on Friday with highs dropping back into the 50s to low 60s. A shortwave trough is expected to track across the southern Plains Friday night into Saturday morning. There are certainly differences regarding the strength of this system, and the amount of cold air that will overspread the region Saturday into Saturday night.

Ensemble guidance provides a low to medium chance of amounts greater than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Although temperatures may be cold enough to support winter-type precipitation, current indications are amounts (if any) will be light. As far as temperatures this weekend, any adjustments to the forecast will likely be colder than warmer.

A brisk northerly wind will prevail for most of the weekend, but will become more southerly as Monday approaches. A ridge to our west will build closer early next week, which will bring warmer temperatures with very low rain chances.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight, though extensive cirrus cloud cover is expected for much of the day. Winds will increase out of the southwest by mid to late morning, with gusts of 40 to 50 knots possible across northwest OK, including at KWWR. Elsewhere, wind speeds will be more in the 20-30 knot range with gusts up to 35-40 knots. Winds will gradually decrease this evening and become westerly behind a Pacific front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1248 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Today will be the first of a multi-day stretch of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area. Strong, gusty southwest winds up to 40-55 mph are expected by this afternoon as a potent southwesterly jet overspreads the region (500 mb winds of 100+ knots entering NW OK by late afternoon). As it does so, much drier air will also work into western OK from the panhandles, dropping afternoon relative humidity values to 10-15%. When combined with a low-level thermal ridge and receptive fuels, many of the necessary ingredients will be in place for the potential for problematic fire spread, especially across western OK. However, as has been discussed the past few days, the ceiling of the event is somewhat uncertain as extensive cirrus clouds are forecast through the day across much of the region which could help limit mixing and mitigate fire starts. Alternatively, some models show cirrus clouds thinning/clearing late in the day across northwest OK which could lead to mesoscale corridors of greater fire threat which will not be clear until later today. Bottom line, regardless of cloud cover, very dry air and strong southwest winds means any fire that starts has potential for rapid spread.

Poor overnight RH recovery is forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday, with RH only expected to rebound into the 25-35% range. This will help setup another day of near-critical to critical fire weather Wednesday. The wind fields will not be as strong compared to Tuesday as the jet max will be east of the area, but on the other hand the airmass will be drier. Minimum relative humidity values could fall as low as 10%, even into central OK by the afternoon. The dry airmass will remain in place on Thursday as winds veer further to the west or northwest as a surface low tracks across KS and NE. This will help send a cooler airmass into the area later Thursday, with the rate of cooling likely having a major impact on the overall fire threat Thursday, especially for northwest/northern OK, but at least elevated to near-crticial conditions appear probable for parts of the area Thursday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures and lighter wind speed will help lessen fire weather concerns Friday into the weekend with low precipitation chances returning this weekend for parts of the area, though amounts appear relatively light and unlikely to greatly improve dry fuels.

Ware

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 48 74 51 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 81 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 83 49 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 81 38 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 75 43 74 46 / 0 10 0 0 Durant OK 73 54 75 56 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029- 033>038.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083-084-087.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.