textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Periods of rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday (mainly along & east of I-44/I-35) with a limited severe weather risk across southern Oklahoma.

- More focused and potentially significant risks of severe weather on Thursday evening/night and Friday.

- Fog possible late tonight into Thursday morning

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible across western Oklahoma/western-north Texas on Friday afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1238 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Scattered rain showers and a few storms continued to develop and move across parts of central and southern OK and north TX this morning. This activity is expected to continue this afternoon with an increase in storm development especially along the stalled front in parts of south central OK as the afternoon progresses. With dewpoints in the low/mid 60s in the moist sector south of the front, some but limited daytime heating, and steep lapse rates, some instability is expected to develop this afternoon and evening. With the instability some of the storms could become severe this afternoon and evening. A few of the elevated storms north of the front could become strong to severe with hail being the primary concern. The higher potential for severe will be with storms along and south of the front where large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern. The severe potential is expected to diminish overnight although the chance for showers/storms will continue into Thursday as WAA continues.

Models are showing the potential for some fog, maybe dense fog, development will be possible later tonight into early Thursday mainly across the northern half to two-thirds of OK which does include the OKC metro.

Cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon north of the front with highs in the 50s and 60s due to cloud cover and rain. South of the front, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s. Temperatures will also vary tonight with lows ranging from the upper 30s in NW OK to the upper 50s in SE parts of the fa.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1238 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The active weather will continue Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:

Expected Weather impacts- Severe Weather and Fog

Fog is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the area. The visibilities are expected to improve mid to late Thursday morning. Some lingering showers/storms could also be occurring Thursday morning. This activity is expected to diminish as the morning progresses.

The stalled frontal boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front Thursday although there are some differences in the models on the timing of this. With the warm front lifting, the warm, moist air is expected to spread northward with much if not all of the fa in the moist sector by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, a dryline is expected to develop west of the fa. Models show scattered storm development near the dryline in the central/eastern TX panhandle Thursday afternoon. These storms will then move east into parts of western OK and western north TX late Thursday afternoon/early evening. With decent instability and improving shear as the LLJ strengthens, severe storms will be possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. There will also be a low risk for tornadoes, especially as the LLJ strengthens Thursday evening. The storms are expected to continue to move east across the area Thursday evening/overnight with the potential for strong to severe storms continuing.

With the warm front lifting north, highs will be back into the 70s across the area with lows Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s.

FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT:

Expected Weather Impacts - Severe Weather, Elevated Fire Weather, Gusty Winds

Models show a strong upper trough/shortwave moving into the Plains Friday with a speed max moving across the central Plains. At the sfc, a dryline is expected to move eastward into the fa Friday afternoon, although there is some disagreement in the models about timing and how far east the dryline will get. A cold front is then expected to move across parts of the area Friday night.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the dryline starting mid to late Friday afternoon and continuing into the evening/overnight hours as the cold front moves into the area. Moderate instability and moderate to strong wind shear is expected which will lead to a risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and night with all hazards possible.

For those areas west of the dryline, Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible with low RH, gusty southwest winds, and dry vegetation. One mitigating factor could be rainfall, if any, that occurs between now and then.

A fairly strong pressure gradient is also expected across the area on Friday with south to southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue on Saturday, though shift southward into the Red River Valley, as the main upper wave departs to the north, with a continued band of southwesterly flow and upper low positioned upstream.

A brief period of warmer and drier weather is expected on Sunday and Monday, as a quasi split-flow pattern takes shape across the western CONUS. Precipitation/storm chances make their return into Tuesday (and beyond), as the previously closed upper low begins to open up and shift east-northeastward.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Current observations show IFR to mainly IFR/MVFR conditions and while the forecast shows conditions improving somewhat, most locations will still have MVFR ceilings into the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and storms are expected mainly for KDUA this afternoon and overnight, with severe storms possible. Late tonight into early Thursday morning, areas of fog will develop near/west of the I-44 corridor with dense fog possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 49 73 61 77 / 30 30 70 60 Hobart OK 46 74 57 81 / 30 50 80 30 Wichita Falls TX 54 79 62 83 / 70 50 60 70 Gage OK 38 70 53 77 / 0 40 50 10 Ponca City OK 42 71 59 76 / 10 20 80 60 Durant OK 60 76 62 77 / 90 70 20 90

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.