textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Strong winds today continue today, diminishing this evening.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon. - Pattern change may bring thunderstorms to the area in the middle to late part of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Fairly dynamic fire weather situation today. Strong winds will continue to be the driving force behind elevated to near critical RFTIs. While the low level jet slowly shifts southeast, clearing across the north is opening up that area to deeper mixing. This will keep winds at least fairly gusty across most of the area into the early evening. ERCs in the 90th+ percentile will also make a significant contribution to the fire danger. Reports from Oklahoma Forestry Services confirm that fuel conditions support volatile fire behavior and spread.

While extensive cloud cover (and even a few sprinkles) looked like it may have been a limiting factor early on, clouds are quickly eroding in the north. Parts of south central Oklahoma and western north Texas, on the other hand, will have higher humidities (in the 35 to 50 percent range) as a limiting factor. There's some uncertainty in exactly where that gradient will occur, but it does look like southeastern parts of the Red Flag warning may struggle to reach elevated RFTIs.

As far as wind as a hazard in and of itself, our wind advisory looks to be on track. We'll start to see gusts diminish below threshold levels in the late afternoon, then continue to diminish gradually through the evening.

The temperature forecast is largely a game of figuring out when and where clouds will clear. Expect highs nudging into the low 60s where we have clearing, with highs confined more to the mid 50s under persistent cloud cover.

Tonight temperatures will drop to near freezing across northern Oklahoma. With clear skies and light winds, a few localized areas could briefly drop just below freezing around dawn.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The cool airmass will remain in place for Saturday, keeping highs in the 60s. Northwest Oklahoma will see breezy winds during the afternoon, allowing for a small area of elevated fire weather in this area.

Strong southerly surface flow and clear skies will help us jump up straight back into the 80s on Sunday. Gusty winds will keep much of northern, western, and parts of central Oklahoma elevated in fire weather concerns. Meanwhile, the dryline is expected to nudge into northwest Oklahoma again, providing its own contribution to elevated RFTIs there.

Day

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The longer term forecast is looking active. The good news is that by Wednesday and Thursday will begin to bring back some chances for rain and thunderstorms across the area. The bad news is that the chances will be focused on the dry line. As the dry line progresses eastward on the 1st and 2nd, there will likely be two active areas, fire weather potential behind the dry line, and strong thunderstorms to the east of the dry line.

Extended models and their ensembles are in relatively good agreement in this progression, so confidence is increasing that a much needed pattern change to more active systems may indeed be in the works.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Most terminals should continue to improve towards VFR category into Friday evening. Ongoing post-frontal stratus, yielding MVFR cigs, continues to slowly erode from north-to-south early this afternoon. This trend is expected to continue over the coming hours, especially at terminals north of the Red River.

Outside of continued gusty surface winds (likely to begin subsiding after 00-03 UTC/Saturday), have added TEMPO mention of light rain across southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas Friday evening into very early Saturday given increasing signal for the development of scattered precipitation cores here.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 40 66 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 39 64 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 48 63 45 85 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 32 66 44 90 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 35 65 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 48 64 49 80 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>031-033>042- 044>046-050.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030- 033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.