textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through Tuesday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Monday) Issued at 1148 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Overall not much change from what we have seen for the past few days. Veered low-level flow will continue to expand the low-level thermal ridge out across the southern Plains today. This will make for another very warm and potentially record setting day across Oklahoma and north Texas as highs temperatures climb into the 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a dryline/surface trough will move east into western Oklahoma today as surface low moves across Kansas. Very dry air to the west of this boundary will cause afternoon RH values to drop into the 10-20% range across far western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas. Currently wind speeds look somewhat marginal, but if deeper mixing can occur would expect wind speeds to be stronger along with associated gusts. Periods of high clouds may also hamper fuel moisture from dropping as low as it otherwise would under sunny conditions. However, temperatures anomalies of some 25- 30 degrees and ERC values in the 70-85% will still result in elevated and possible a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions. Will go ahead and convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon for a few counties of southwest Oklahoma southward into western north Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Surface trough/weak cold front will move east across the remainder of the area tonight as surface low shifts east and northeast across the southern Plains into the upper midwest. Winds behind the boundary will shift to the northwest, but only minimal cooling is expected on Tuesday as temperatures remain very warm for early January (mid 60s to mid 70s).

South winds quickly return for Wednesday in advance of western storm system. Again, expect abundant high clouds out ahead of this system, but mid/lower level moisture will remain well south of the area through the day Wednesday. Temperatures will be very similar to Tuesday with 60s and 70s. Increasing amounts of moisture will pull northward Wednesday night on the heels of increasing southerly low- level flow and with the aid of some waa and forcing from a lead wave, rain chances return to north Texas and Oklahoma, especially after midnight. Best chances will initially be across southern into southeastern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1148 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Models have shifted back a bit further north with the lead wave as it lifts out across the area during the day Thursday and looks to bring a good chance of rain to at least the southeastern two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas during the day. There may be sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms along and south of the I-44 corridor. Rainfall still looks to remain rather light, however some locations south and east of I-44 could receive 1/2 to perhaps as much as 3/4 of an inch.

As system lifts out Thursday night, cold front will sweep southeast bringing "colder" air into the area. May also see some warp-around precip linger in northern Oklahoma Thursday night before precip ends. Friday into the weekend will be dry with cooler temperatures. Although temperatures are still expected to be above normal with highs mainly in the 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Low level wind shear is expected across parts of north central and central Oklahoma overnight. Southerly to southeasterly winds will become breezy this afternoon.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 57 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 47 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 37 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 56 41 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 59 45 69 49 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning Monday afternoon for OKZ014-021-033.

TX...Red Flag Warning Monday afternoon for TXZ083.