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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 453 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

- Frost Advisory across central and eastern Oklahoma from 3 AM to 9 AM Friday morning.

- A cold front brings a low chance for rain showers and cooler temperatures on Saturday.

- Above-average temperatures and dry conditions returning next week to begin November.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

The Halloween forecast is more 'treat' than 'trick' for Oklahoma and western-north Texas today. The surface (and upper air) pattern remains rather benign, with a dissipating surface high across the western Gulf Coast and weak lee cyclone developing across the Sangre de Cristo Range.

Clear skies and light surface winds will lead to another chilly morning across the region, with sub-freezing temperatures expected across portions of northern and central Oklahoma. Even where temperatures remain a few degrees above freezing, sufficient low- level saturation is ongoing to support frost formation. The previous Frost Advisory will be maintained for portions of central and eastern Oklahoma until 9 AM this morning.

Temperatures will warm towards seasonable readings (60s to low-70s) by the afternoon with a light southeast breeze. Coverage of high clouds will be on the increase towards trick-or-treating time this evening, with temperatures quickly cooling into the 50s after sunset.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

A quick-moving surface front will offer low chances for rain showers and cooler conditions on Saturday. Precipitation chances will be focused during the predawn into mid-morning hours, mainly along-east of the I-35/44 corridors. Modeled vertical profiles show a pronounced dry layer below cloud base such that rain accumulations/impact are expected to be very limited in nature. A lightning strike/rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out as well, though will likely occur on a very isolated basis (if at all).

A cool post-frontal airmass will settle by the afternoon and evening on Saturday, with high confidence in daytime temperatures remaining in the 50s across portions of northern and north-central Oklahoma (low-60s elsewhere).

Sunday will be a "warmer" (and dry) day, as stronger southerly winds commence and a warm low-level airmass advects downstream of a western CONUS ridge. A wider profile of 70s are expected into the afternoon, especially across western Oklahoma and western-north Texas. Clear skies are also likely, providing for a great fall weather day.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

A period of generally low-impact and warm weather looks to return into next week. While grand ensemble guidance hints at a potentially active polar jet during this time, an expanded upstream ridge will likely deflect passing systems to the north/east of the forecast area. For now, we look to return towards above-normal/more atumun-like warmth (70s to low-80s) by Monday. Dry surface conditions are currently advertised for this period as well.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

VFR conditions persist through the period. Light winds shift to the NNE this evening and overnight as a front moves through the area with increasing mid-/high-level clouds. There are very low chances (less than 20%) of showers late tonight and towards Saturday morning for KPNC and KSWO.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 45 59 36 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 70 43 63 36 / 0 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 48 67 39 / 0 10 20 0 Gage OK 62 36 57 35 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 65 42 57 33 / 0 20 10 0 Durant OK 70 48 66 38 / 0 10 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ007-008-012- 013-019-020-025-026-028>032-040-042.

TX...None.