textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- A widespread round of rain is expected Thursday into Friday, but could be limited to locations south of I-40.

- Severe storms look unlikely over the next week.

- Cool temperatures are expected through Saturday, then warming.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

There are two areas of potential precipitation today. The first is in the northwest as precipitation has developed in the Colorado High Plains and mountains with easterly upslope low-level flow and a weak shortwave in the zonal flow aloft. Some of these showers are drifting into western Kansas and could move into northwest Oklahoma, but the precipitation is primarily expected to be farther to the northwest.

The second area is to the south. Some isentropic lift is developing across southwest Texas where 850 mb (~300K isentropic surface) winds are becoming southerly and spreading slightly higher moisture north above the frontal surface. However there will be a northward extent of how far north this precipitation area spreads today, and while the northern edge of this precipitation is likely to reach at least our north Texas counties, it is not guaranteed if it will, or how widespread the precipitation will be at the northern edge. NBM POPs seemed a bit too bullish with how far north the precipitation spreads today given the trends in the operational models, so in coordinating with adjacent offices to the west, we have lowered POPs from the NBM initializations today.

Despite the showers and the potential for thunderstorms, instability has been pushed well to the south and no severe weather is expected.

With the post-frontal airmass over the area and widespread cloudiness, it will be a cool afternoon today across the area with high temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees below average.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The next round of showers and thunderstorms develops Thursday night into Friday as a upper level storm system currently off the Baja California coast moves across northern Mexico and into Texas. There is consistency in the models about this system taking a southern track through Texas with much of the lift associated with this approaching system remaining to the south. So again there will be a south-north gradient in precipitation chances with precipitation likely south of the Red River and decreasing chances farther north on Thursday night and Friday. Instability will still be limited and no severe weather is forecast. Precipitation will be ending late Friday as this storm system and associated lift push east of the forecast area.

Again the post-frontal airmass, widespread clouds and areas of rain (at least in the south) will keep temperatures quite cool, especially in the south. The high at Wichita Falls is only expected to get to around 61 on Friday and the record coolest high temperature for Wichita Falls for May 1 is 57.

Skies clear Friday night with the departure of the storm system, and somewhat warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, although still below average for early May.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

South to southwesterly low-level flow redevelops on Sunday and warmer temperatures are expected each day Sunday through Tuesday. A few waves in the northern stream aloft will create a low potential of showers or storms in the north Monday and Tuesday, but the highest chances of precipitation will be farther north. Current models suggest that a cold front may push into the area late Tuesday in the wake of one of these northern stream waves. We will watch the trend over the next few days for that.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Clouds will increase from the southwest through the day, with low chances for showers across western north TX this morning into the afternoon. These areas could see periods of MVFR, otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the rest of the area. Additional rain chances will move into western north TX late tonight and increase Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 50 67 45 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 64 49 65 43 / 30 20 40 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 53 62 45 / 50 40 60 10 Gage OK 64 41 64 39 / 30 30 30 10 Ponca City OK 66 45 68 43 / 10 10 0 0 Durant OK 68 53 65 47 / 40 30 40 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.