textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Low potential for a severe storm or two across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on Wednesday evening.

- Conditional but potentially high-impact storm event possible in northern Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

After another period of rain and storms across portions of our area this morning, generally drier weather is now expected for most. A well-defined mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues to drift eastward near Tulsa early this afternoon. A mix of sun and clouds, and even spotty light rain showers, continue in its wake across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas. Combined with broad subsidence, a mostly dry Wednesday afternoon and evening is forecast with temperatures peaking in the low-80s north to near 100 degrees across western-north Texas.

We will be keeping a close eye on remanant outflow, currently sliding southward towards the Red River, for low confidence (~20- 30%) storm development later this evening (after 4 PM). While aforementioned factors and lack of synoptic support (i.e., rising heights) cast uncertainty, provided hot afternoon temperatures and a source of near-surface convergence, this potential cannot be discounted. If storms form then some risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall/flooding will emerge for a few hours during the mid-evening.

Our overnight forecast is a familiar one, with an increasing low- level jet/isentropic flow fostering development of scattered to numerous showers and storms across portions of the area. Highest coverage is expected along and north of I-40, and especially towards the Oklahoma/Kansas border, where remnant convective clusters arriving from our northwest are also possible towards daybreak. Given multiple recent rounds of rainfall, localized flooding will remain a concern during the predawn hours on Thursday. As such, a Flood Watch has been posted for portions of northern into eastern Oklahoma beginning at 1 AM on Thursday morning.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

We currently anticipate a "lull" in precipitative weather by the late morning-early afternoon on Thursday before another round of severe weather and flooding potential emerges. Given a belt of stronger mid-level flow, a more organized/supercell storm mode will be possible during the early evening hours. In addition to hail/wind concern, a more evident tornado risk exists compared to prior storm periods this week. This risk would seem to maximize near a pseudo warm front, and as a low-level jet increases during the early evening. Some continued risk of strong-severe storms will continue into early Friday morning, as coalescing convection from across the southern High Plains moves eastward. Localized flooding will also be a concern through sunrise on Friday, especially for areas that see rain/storms Thursday morning.

While the pattern begins to dry out by the time we get to Friday, that doesn't mean we will be completely rain/storm free. As a deeper upper trough begins to take shape across the west coast, and a weak frontal boundary bisects the area, low chances for storms will persist during the evening timeframe.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The upper-level pattern will spend most of the long-term period reorienting itself so that early in the period (Saturday/Sunday) there will be an anomalously strong trough over the western CONUS, and in the latter part of the period (Monday/Tuesday) there will be an anomalously strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. We'll remain on the western periphery of the ridge, which is usually a great place for things to start to heat up. Given all of the recent rainfall, this heatwave is probably going to be more of a "boil" than a "bake" event, and it wouldn't shock me if the current gridded forecast output is too high with actual air temperatures, but too low with "feel-like" temperatures on multiple days. Precipitation chances will also dwindle with sunny days ahead for the foreseeable future.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The 18Z forecast is somewhat optimistic, as we are in a bit of a lull between systems. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, especially along a boundary seen on satellite near the Red River. While the CAMs are insistent in developing a few storms along this boundary, the same CAMs don't quite have the location correct, as they produce storms between KADM and KOUN. However, the boundary is closer to the Red River, which could limit convection this far north. Have opted to keep low probabilities with a PROB30 group is most of the TAFs as confidence is low for any one airport.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 91 75 92 / 30 20 40 10 Hobart OK 71 95 74 96 / 20 10 40 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 96 76 97 / 20 0 20 0 Gage OK 67 95 66 92 / 40 40 70 0 Ponca City OK 68 86 70 88 / 60 40 50 10 Durant OK 76 92 77 93 / 30 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Friday morning for OKZ004>013-019-020-026.

TX...None.