textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 410 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Beneficial rainfall is likely to occur during periods from Friday evening through Saturday night.

- Fire weather concerns return next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Benign weather conditions are expected today. Temperatures will rise mostly into the 70's and will see a modest increase in southerly winds and low-level moisture advection. A weak surface boundary sags into northern Oklahoma which will result in a wind shift to the NNE and slightly cooler conditions north of this boundary.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

This surface boundary continues to shift south towards the I-40 corridor on Thursday night with return flow transporting low- level Gulf moisture into our area on Friday as the large-scale trough reaches Baja California. Will see increasing cloud-cover by Friday afternoon as the weak surface boundary lifts a bit to the north. There remains uncertainty on the location and orientation of the surface boundary. A few of the CAMS suggest a negatively tilted moisture gradient from Harper to Durant Counties with pockets of 60+ deg dewpoint temperatures arriving over parts of western/southern Oklahoma and western north Texas by Friday afternoon. By evening, the H500 jet streak from the southwest arrives over western north Texas and portions of our area. With 1000 J/kg of instability and lapse rates near 7 deg C/km, marginally severe storms capable of producing hail are possible. As the nocturnal LLJ strengthens on Friday night, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to become more widespread.

By Saturday morning, the center of the mid-level trough axis nears west Texas and widespread rainfall will continue through at least mid-day, before tapering off over northwest/western Oklahoma. Latest model runs suggest the center of this trough tracks near or just south of the Red River Valley on Saturday night. Rain will taper from northwest to southeast by early Sunday morning. Highest chances of at least 1 inch of rainfall are maximized over parts of east-central to southeastern Oklahoma, with probabilities at 80% or higher in these areas. Medium-high probabilities (65% or higher)of at least 1 inches of QPF extend as far west as Wichita Falls to Chickasha to Kingfisher and Enid. Daytime rainfall records could be set for a few locations on Saturday.

Cannot rule out a marginal risk of flash flooding yet given the presence of southwest steering flow and a stationary boundary in the area. However, as high-res guidance becomes more established within the next day or so, mesoscale patterns and thus hydro risk, will hopefully become more apparent.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The strong upper trough exits the region by early Sunday morning, with a ridge on its heels. Sunday is forecast to be a beautiful day, with sunny skies and mild temperatures (60's) under a modest north breeze. Depending on how much rainfall we receive, fire weather should not be much of a concern on Monday. Models are in better agreement with the upper-level flow pattern for Tuesday, with 70-90kt H500 jet core streaming across northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon. Placement of the dryline still remains fuzzy, but with strong downsloping winds forecast, fire weather conditions could deteriorate to near critical to critical over parts of northwest and western Oklahoma on Tuesday.

Near record high temperatures are possible next Wednesday. As the strong jet stream continues to move overhead, daytime mixing will lead to another day of breezy conditions (though not as windy as Tuesday). Nevertheless, this does extend elevated fire weather conditions across central Oklahoma on Wednesday, with near critical conditions possible in the northwest.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 410 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected this TAF period except at KDUA where MVFR ceilings may affect the site for a few hours this morning. Otherwise, high and mid clouds are expected to stream across the area. Shifting winds are expected today and tonight as a weak boundary moves across parts of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 47 72 55 / 0 10 40 90 Hobart OK 73 46 72 54 / 0 10 30 100 Wichita Falls TX 75 52 79 58 / 0 0 30 90 Gage OK 69 37 62 46 / 0 10 20 80 Ponca City OK 66 41 65 51 / 0 10 40 90 Durant OK 70 50 75 59 / 0 10 20 70

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.