textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Another round of storms is likely Wednesday morning with damaging winds and flooding possible.

- Conditional but potentially high-impact storm event possible in northern Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Upslope, upscale, dive southeast, repeat. That process is playing out for the nth time on satellite/radar across the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa. Multiple supercells have developed across the high terrain of southeast Colorado just east of I-25 within an anomalously humid and unstable airmass. At the moment, very little forward propagation is occurring. However, a 20 knot southeasterly low-level jet is directed from northwest Oklahoma back into the jet. This could provide an impetus for storms to grow upscale and move southeastward across the northern panhandles toward northwest Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Additional elevated convection is possible toward daybreak near the terminus of the low-level jet across southeast, central, and northwest Oklahoma.

Eventually, guidance shows low-to-medium confidence that the cluster of storms (or a new cluster in its MCV) will move southeast across the area during the morning hours. The primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts in the vicinity of any rear-inflow jets and additional heavy rainfall across already saturated soils. A flood watch remains in effect across the northern and eastern parts of the area through the morning.

What happens after the first round is a little more uncertain, but the indication from CAM guidance (such as it is) would suggest another lull for most of the afternoon and evening across our area in the subsidence regime behind the morning cluster of storms. And then our attention would turn to another game of upslope, upscale, dive southeast, repeat late tonight.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The long-awaited pattern breakdown is upon us in the short term. Like many pattern breakdowns, it will involve a crescendo and finale first. That finale may well take place on Thursday afternoon and evening as the ridge deamplifies and lets 40 knots of zonal 500 mb flow into the northern half of our area. In conjunction with an unstable antecedent airmass and a potential outflow boundary from tonight's storm cluster(s), the stage will be set for perhaps a less June-like and a more May-like convective event. Almost all global and CAM guidance shows a sharp, backed low-level jet across north central Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. If this comes to pass and there is a stalled boundary, the environment would be favorable for supercells with large hail, a tornado risk, and the potential for dangerous flash flooding in a part of Oklahoma that has seen excessive rain over the last two weeks. Even if all of the ingredients don't come together in a classic manner for supercells, the ejection of that speed max across the area seems likely to trigger another round/cluster of storms with a severe/flooding risk.

On Friday, the ridge will begin to press eastward across essentially the entire southern portion of the CONUS, trapped in by that zonal flow across the central tier of the country. For us, that means a beginning to the upcoming warm-up. Won't rule out rain/storm chances altogether especially across northern Oklahoma further from the ridge axis, but it doesn't look like yet another wash-out based on current guidance.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The upper-level pattern will spend most of the long-term period reorienting itself so that early in the period (Saturday/Sunday) there will be an anomalously strong trough over the western CONUS, and in the latter part of the period (Monday/Tuesday) there will be an anomalously strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. We'll remain on the western periphery of the ridge, which is usually a great place for things to start to heat up. Given all of the recent rainfall, this heatwave is probably going to be more of a "boil" than a "bake" event, and it wouldn't shock me if the current gridded forecast output is too high with actual air temperatures, but too low with "feel-like" temperatures on multiple days. Precipitation chances will also dwindle with sunny days ahead for the foreseeable future.

Meister

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently across northwest Oklahoma are expected to slowly advance east-southeast this morning into the afternoon. The highest chance of storms are across the northern half to two-thirds of Oklahoma. Gusty, variable winds, hail, and reduced visibility are possible in the most intense storms.

MVFR to IFR ceilings are ongoing this morning across northern Oklahoma. Ceilings should improve at most terminals by this afternoon as storms exit. Outside of thunderstorms, east to southeast winds are expected to continue.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 88 71 91 76 / 40 20 10 20 Hobart OK 93 72 97 75 / 30 20 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 96 75 97 77 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 86 67 94 67 / 50 40 30 60 Ponca City OK 82 68 86 71 / 60 50 50 60 Durant OK 91 76 92 77 / 40 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ004>013-015- 017>020-024>032-039>043-046>048-051-052.

TX...None.