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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Patchy fog possible across north central Oklahoma Monday morning.

- Above-normal temperatures expected over the next five days.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1231 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Very little in the way of sensible weather impacts expected today and most of tonight. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low 70s for most of the area this afternoon. High cloud cover across the Red River Valley will keep it from getting much warmer than central and northern Oklahoma. Winds will remain light.

The high cloud cover will abate somewhat across the Red River region again tonight. Winds will remain light. Despite that, the anticipation is that temperatures will be a little bit milder tonight in part due to a subtle 24-hour increase in 850/700 mb temperatures.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1231 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The most interesting (and I use that term in a very relative sense) weather impact expected in the short-term period is the potential for another round of fog to develop in northern Oklahoma. That area has seen the most cooling/condensation the last two nights (though fog this morning was admittedly quite sporadic) and the HRRR/RRFS depict the highest surface RHs there. Given the underperforming fog coverage this morning, our forecast reflects a rather safe "patchy" fog designation.

After that, we move back into a rather quiescent pattern. General troughing across the middle Rio Grande Valley will continue to produce cloudiness and periods of showers well to our south. The relative maximum in precip chances in our western north Texas/southern Oklahoma counties is tomorrow evening through Tuesday evening, and even those odds remain below 10 percent. Temperatures will continue to rise to above mid-November normals with widespread highs in the mid-70s by Tuesday.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The synoptic-scale pattern will change across the continental United States as a longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the country. This pattern will allow a cold front to advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. Currently, the cold front is most likely to move through on Wednesday. However, the cold air may lag behind the initial wind shift with the coolest air arriving for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances also look to be near zero/limited with the front with the more appreciable synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast.

How cold will the air mass be behind the front? The Southern Plains will be to the southwest of the strongest cold air advection, which means the chance of a significant cool-down (for November) is very low. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles, with the cooler end of ensemble guidance only lowering high temperatures into the 50s deg F (which is slightly below normal for mid-November). Currently, The most likely scenario is highs in the low 60s (northeast) to the low 70s deg F (southwest).

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The only issue that may impact some of our terminals will be fog but that will be late in the forecast period. Otherwise most terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 08Z. The most likely area for fog development especially dense fog tonight will be across northcentral OK where MVFR conditions at terminals KPNC & KSWO could begin as early as 06Z with further reduced visibilities in dense fog resulting in an IFR to LIFR categories between 10-16Z at those two terminals. Any fog would be more light and patchy across our remaining terminals but visibilities could lower them to a high-end MVFR category between 08-16Z. A weak pressure gradient will keep surface winds light & variable through much of the forecast. By 16Z surface winds may increase out of the south-southwest between 5-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 45 72 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 45 72 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 48 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 41 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 42 72 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 48 75 55 78 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.