textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A ~599 dam mid-level ridge remains centered near the Four Corners region in the southwestern United States. This has placed Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of ridge with weak northwest flow aloft. Synoptic-scale ascent from a wave embedded in the flow allowed for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to move through eastern parts of the area this morning.

Isolated showers/storms may develop along the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's storms across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts from downbursts will be the primary hazard with any thunderstorms given the large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and the hot temperatures.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight is lower than previous nights as the mid-level ridge is forecast to expand slightly to the east. This keeps the more appreciable synoptic- scale ascent to our northeast.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Hotter weather returns on Sunday with the eastward expansion of the mid-level ridge in tandem with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge. Dangerous heat is expected across much of the area with a Heat Advisory in effect for all locations except northern Oklahoma. Parts of the Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warning across the south with the potential for air temperatures and/or heat indices >110 deg F.

The very hot temperatures across western Oklahoma and western north Texas will result in afternoon relative humidity values near or below 20%, which will result in elevated fire weather conditions. With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement may be needed for tomorrow. In addition, a few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tomorrow afternoon. Some of this activity may move into western Oklahoma with a dry lightning threat.

A weak cold front/wind shift is forecast to advance southward on Monday as a shortwave trough passes by to the northeast. Veered low-level flow ahead of the front will result in very hot, record-breaking temperatures (i.e., "pre-frontal torch") with the potential for temperatures approaching 115 deg F across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. In addition, with the veered low-level flow, at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon with the potential for locally near- critical fire weather conditions. The primary mitigating factor for a higher-end fire weather risk is wind speeds should be somewhat limited. Nevertheless, a Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed on Monday.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma.

Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon and into the evening for areas generally south of I-40. However, greatest chances appear to be near KLAW and KSPS, with damaging wind gusts possible. In addition, LLWS is possible during the early morning hours on Sunday at KSPS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 103 80 107 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 109 82 110 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 109 83 111 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 105 73 103 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 95 73 100 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 107 81 109 / 20 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ009>012- 014>019-021>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ011-012-014>019- 021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.