textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday afternoons across portions of northwest Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and dry conditions.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase midweek.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

There have been a few showers this morning, but the rain has been light, with less than 1/10 of an inch falling from Alva to Holdenville. These showers were in response to a 700 mb trough moving across Oklahoma earlier today. As this feature moves southeast this afternoon, it will take the cloud cover and any lingering rain with it.

By this evening, mainly clear skies will remain and lows tonight will drop into the mid 40s once again.

Fox

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The relatively benign weather continues tomorrow, with a cool start to the day before warming up nicely into the 80s. In the northwestern part of Oklahoma, the fire weather conditions will ramp up again, with RH values well below 20% during the mid and late afternoon. Low humidity will be coupled with southwest winds between 15-25 mph, with a few gusts over 30 mph.

The forecast on Monday is a bit complicated. At first glance, you will notice that the forecast is currently boring: no rain or thunderstorms and highs in the upper 90. The forecast could become much more interesting, however.

Before going into the geeky details, the first scenario is our current thinking of the forecast.

First Scenario Monday's most likely forecast (roughly a 80% of occurring): Mostly clear skies, with high clouds approaching from the south and southwest. Highs in the 80s or low 90s and a stray thunderstorm clipping the Oklahoma / Kansas border, so maybe a thunderstorm between Blackwell and Ponca City. Dry line in the west moves along and east of I-35, and a strong capping inversion keeps thunderstorms from developing.

Second Scenario Monday's low probability forecast (roughly a 20% of occurring): Mostly clear skies, with high clouds approaching from the south and southwest. Highs in the 80s or low 90s.

During the afternoon, the dry line stays west of I-35, keeping deeper moisture in place for central Oklahoma. While the cap will remain, deeper moisture, lift along the dryline, and warm temperatures may allow thunderstorms to develop further south than the current forecast. If so, the parameters of wind shear are favorable for severe thunderstorms to occur, including supercells.

Long story short: the failure mode for the forecast on Monday could be steep. Currently not anticipating storms, but if minor details in the forecast change, impacts from storms may be in play.

Fox

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Tuesday and Tuesday night will be a focus during the long term. As previously mentioned in earlier discussions, the frontal position is becoming more clear, with a sharp temperature gradient expected in Oklahoma from NW to SE. The 500mb flow on Tuesday features a sharp trough over the four corners are by 00Z Wednesday. As the upper low and trough ejects northward, there will be enough lift to produce height falls in the 40-50dm over Oklahoma and Texas. This should be enough to produce some thunderstorms, with a few of them becoming severe late Tuesday and into the overnight hours on Wednesday.

The ECMWF and GFS (and their ensembles) are becoming a little more consistent with a cut off 500mb flow, but there remains quite a few differences in the details. Unfortunately, this is not enough to change the forecast much, so we'll continue to monitor if additional rain chances are needed by the middle and late parts of the week.

Fox

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. Surface winds will become light & variable tonight but gradually increasing out of the south at 5-10 kts by 12Z. A moderate low-level jet will be increasing out of the southwest which could produce some marginal low-level wind shear for a couple hours by 12Z across all terminals except KCSM & KWWR. South surface winds will have veered southwest by 15-16Z at 10 kts sustained gusting to 20 kts. Between 18-21Z southwest surface winds will have increased 15-20 kts sustained with gusts up to 25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 50 85 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 51 84 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 44 85 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 47 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 51 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.