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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Increased cloud cover and cooler today and Saturday

- Fog may return across parts of our area Saturday morning

- Warming trend starting Sunday with mild yet unseasonably warmer temperatures into next week

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Overcast stratus coming down from the Central Plains will be slowly scattering out this afternoon across northcentral through central Oklahoma. Visible satellite imagery showing breaks in the stratus as visibilities from this mornings fog have improved over 5 miles. However not expecting to see maximum sun this afternoon with high cloudiness increasing from the west through a dirty upper ridge over the Southern High Plains. North winds will keep our area within a cooler air mass maintaining dry conditions with unseasonably cooler temperatures through tonight. Southern Oklahoma into northern Texas should see afternoon highs in the lower to mid 60s while the rest of our area will be struggling to get out of the 50s. Cold again tonight with near freezing low temperatures across northcentral Oklahoma. High pressure starts building in tonight coming off the Central High Plains with north winds going light & variable. Although skies may stay broken overnight with thin Cirrus but expecting a return of stratus with radiational fog early Saturday into mid-morning. Although fog could be fairly widespread and patchy but could see the denser fog with the most reduced visibilities across much of northern and western Oklahoma to near the OKC Metro. A Dense Fog Advisory will at least be possible for Saturday morning should it become widespread. We have issued a Frost Advisory for four of our counties in northcentral Oklahoma where just above freezing temperatures in saturated air could result in frost accumulations which could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation/ plants. The Frost Advisory will be in effect Saturday morning from 4-8 AM.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Expecting any Saturday morning fog to burn off by late morning. Upper ridging will be building in Saturday although much of the pressure heights from the ridge will be rising/warming south of the Red River across northern Texas. Although northern Oklahoma may see sunny afternoon skies but the rest of our area will stay mostly cloudy to overcast in the mid to upper levels. At the surface high pressure will continue to build in keeping winds light & variable with a persisting trend of seasonably cooler temperatures. Another potential for fog development on Sunday morning mainly across northern Oklahoma at least for now. Our area will start to see a warming trend on Sunday with an upper ridge building in from the west associated with a Rex Block pattern. Expecting the upper low from this pattern to stay well south of our forecast area keeping POPs down in southern Texas with the ridging warming our temperatures to more seasonably normal (mid to upper 60s highs) for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

The upper-level low across the southwest U.S. will eventually lift into the Southern Plains by Monday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but there is currently a ~10% chance of rain on Monday associated with this system.

Beyond Monday, warm afternoons and cool nights will continue with highs generally in the 60s and 70s and lows generally in the 40s and 50s deg F. A cold front may pass by late Thursday into Friday, but no significant cool down is expected in its wake. Even the cooler end of bias-corrected probabilistic guidance (i.e., the 10th percentile) has high temperatures only dropping into the 50s deg F, which is only slightly below normal for mid-November.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

An arc of IFR to LIFR (300 to 1,000 foot) stratus continues in a rather narrow arc centered from Wewoka to El Reno to Alva. This zone is already eroding on the northern end with skies clearing at Ponca City and Stillwater. Therefore, expectation is that this stratus breaks down to cumulus by midafternoon across the area. Clearing skies return tonight, which may be the impetus for a more widespread zone of radiation fog to develop (especially across western Oklahoma).

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 39 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 40 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 44 64 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 38 65 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 36 59 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 46 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Saturday for OKZ007-008-012- 013.

TX...None.