textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Scattered storms this morning with locally heavy rainfall.

- Lower temperatures today, but still high heat indices.

- Additional storms developing this afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Thunderstorms yesterday evening pushed an outflow boundary southwest, which in turn has been a focus for thunderstorm development across central and east central Oklahoma. These storms have been efficient rainfall producers with weather stations reporting rainfall totals of 2 to 2.5 inches in an hour with the heaviest storms. These likely will persist and spread south through the morning, with coverage expected to decrease later this morning. But these storms will have left multiple outflow boundaries across the area. The specifics of where we see redevelopment later today will depend somewhat on where the boundaries are located as the atmosphere destabilizes. The higher potential should generally shift to the south this afternoon and evening though. A few strong and potentially severe storms will be possible, with wind being the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Temperatures will be somewhat lower today with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. But humidity will be high enough today (especially where we have been receiving heavy rains this morning), that the heat indices will reach the triple digits in some areas this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Storms that develop this afternoon and overnight will continue overnight and likely into Monday morning. The scenario will be the same on the next couple of days with storms developing in the late afternoon and evening, persisting overnight and diminishing in the morning hours. However each day the focus is expected to shift farther south. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be below mid-July averages, and expectation is that heat index values will not be as high as the best low-level moisture shifts south, although that could be moderated by evapotranspiration in areas that have been receiving heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Not much change to thoughts on the longer term forecast as we move into a pattern with fewer rain chances. But again there are differences with how the upper pattern evolves through the week. The ECMWF is now building a stronger ridge into the area from the east by late in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Mostly VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period although a few sites could drop to IFR for a time this morning. Showers/storms will continue to develop and move across parts of OK and north TX this morning with rain chances continuing this afternoon/evening with highest chances in southern OK and north TX. Winds will also be shifting today as various outflow boundaries affect the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 71 90 70 / 40 20 20 10 Hobart OK 92 70 91 69 / 50 30 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 95 71 92 70 / 60 40 50 20 Gage OK 91 68 91 67 / 20 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 88 69 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 92 73 91 73 / 60 40 40 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.