textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues into next week.

- Fire weather remains a concern given hot temperatures and ongoing drought/very dry fuels.

- Very low chance for rain/storms this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and all of east-central Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday afternoons

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Dangerous heating will result in a Heat Advisory for this afternoon across portions of northern, central, and southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. All of southcentral through southeast Oklahoma will be in the Heat Advisory which expires early this evening.

For today will see scattered areas CU break out during the afternoon in the moister air mainly near and east of I-35 with increasing high cloudiness coming off the Central High Plains into northwest Oklahoma toward the evening hours. As a result expecting near maximum afternoon heating with triple digit highs between 100-103 degrees. Did adjust this afternoons MaxT slightly hotter than the newest NBM default run to more closer to the previous forecast using the newer NBM 50th percentile numbers. Slightly drier air across western Oklahoma should keep heat indices there below advisory criteria while the rest of our area could see heat indices between 105-109 degrees. As a result did trim seven counties in western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas out of this afternoons heat advisory. Some of the CU across southeast Oklahoma could pulse up a few weak thunderstorms by late afternoon mixing into uncapped air which is supported by a few of the CAMs. As a result will maintain low 15% isolated storm POPs across a small portion of southeast Oklahoma in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Upper synoptic flow across the country remains in a blocking pattern with deep troughing across the western & eastern U.S. and the blocked ridge over the central one-third of the U.S. The strongest ridging with a closed upper high will remain over the Southern Plains keeping our heatwave going with temperatures 10-15 degrees hotter than normal. Climatically normal average highs across our forecast area would be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for early September. Southerly low-level flow/winds will persist through the short term as a backdoor cold front across Missouri unfortunately will not make it into Oklahoma at all for Sunday. Surface moisture has been on a decrease trend over the last 24-hours as per Mesonet observation especially across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas from slightly drier air advecting off the higher plains. However moister upper 60s dewpoints remain in place across central Oklahoma to lower 70s in southeast Oklahoma. Of course this moisture will impact heat indices and our advisory areas as widespread triple digit air temperatures are expected through Monday. At least for now model guidance suggest moisture transport may try to strengthen in southeast Oklahoma by Sunday increasing heat indices there.

For Sunday, ascension in low-end moderately unstable air ahead of the aforementioned backdoor front could initiate isolated convection across eastern Oklahoma by late afternoon so will be adding 20% storm POPs into east-central through southeast Oklahoma. Will also have a Heat Advisory for the afternoon across portions of northern and southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas to all of central through southeast Oklahoma for heat indices of 105-109 degrees expected. Monday looks to be a near repeater of Sunday with a Heat Advisory although parts of our west may stay out of it with drier air there. Will also keep mentionable storm POPs across east- central Oklahoma from moisture ahead of the backdoor front across the Missouri Ozarks before it washes out

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

While next week still looks to be dominated by a continued hot and dry pattern, especially on Tuesday and most of Wednesday, a pathway for more changeable conditions, including at least low chances for precipitation, is coming into better view into the late week.

This comes as a strong upper system rounds the periphery of the upper ridge into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak trailing front looks to slide southeastward across the Plains during this time. The greatest uncertainty remains 1.) how strong the resultant front is (i.e., able to help foster precipitative chance?), and 2.) how far south the front makes it before dissipating. For now, we maintain at least low rain/storm chances from Wednesday night into Thursday across the northern half of Oklahoma. Not seeing much potential for a significant cool down, though daytime highs may run a few degrees below those early in the week.

Even greater uncertainty exists beyond the end of the period (12th onward), though most ensemble solutions show the upper ridge remaining the dominant regional synoptic feature during this time.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period with a light south wind expected to back slightly to southeast at most sites late Sunday morning. Very slim chances (~10%) for showers or perhaps a storm are expected this afternoon across southeast OK, but chances are too low to include in the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 75 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 100 75 102 / 10 20 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 018>020-024>032-036>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008- 011>013-017>020-023>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086- 088>090.