textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1149 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Colder temperatures and strong northerly winds are expected behind a cold front Sunday, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather possible Sunday due to strong winds.

- Dry weather persists with near-record heat possible by the middle to end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Winds continue to diminish early this morning as a surface trough trailing a strong surface low pressure across the upper Midwest crosses the area. A weak front will follow behind the surface trough this morning, bringing a shift to northeasterly winds. Pressure falls to our west will quickly cause winds to veer this afternoon, becoming southeasterly once again by this evening. Even with the weak frontal passage high temperatures will end up back above average today, with temperatures in the 70s across much of OK with some low 80s possible across western north TX.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 134 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Southerly winds will increase some on Saturday as lee troughing deepens in response to strengthening westerly mid level flow ahead of a shortwave trough digging across the western US. This will help boost temperatures even further, with highs in the upper 70s north to near 90 southwest.

The shortwave trough will amplify over the central US on Sunday, helping send a strong cold front into the area by Sunday morning. Models exhibit some timing differences with the front but all agree winds will be quite strong behind it. ~6 mb/3hr pressure rises combined with 925-850mb winds of 50-55 kts behind the trough will lead to the potential for wind gusts of 50-60 mph. NBM90th percentile (reasonable worst case) shows wind gusts of 60-70 mph across western OK and 55-65 mph into central OK. Will continue to monitor model trends the next couple days to better determine where/if High Wind watches/warnings may be necessary. At a minimum, a Wind Advisory appears likely for the entire area Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

Strong cold advection is also forecast behind the front, with high temperatures potentially occurring during the morning, especially across northern/western OK, where temperatures could fall into the 30s and 40s by mid afternoon. Can't rule out a stray shower (rain or snow) across northern OK as well, though drying in the low-levels will likely make it hard for much to reach the ground. Finally, strong north winds and dry fuels will lead to at least an elevated fire risk for much of the area Sunday, with the potential for near-critical to critical fire weather across western north TX into southwest OK where afternoon RH may drop below 30%.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Monday morning will start off quite chilly, with lows in the teens and twenties across the area, rebounding to slightly below normal highs by Monday afternoon. Dry conditions and a significant warming trend are then expected for the remainder of next week, with highs potentially soaring towards records by the middle to end of next week. In fact, NBM90th percentile temperatures are in the upper 90s along and west of I-35 Thursday/Friday and near 105 degrees in southwest OK and western north TX. These values would break the highest March max temperature records at each of our climate sites and, while unlikely to occur, show how anomalously warm the air mass is forecast to be. With such a hot and dry conditions, each day next week will also feature at least elevated fire weather risk for a portion of the area.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions with some high clouds. However, there is currently a low chance that MVFR ceilings may move into KDUA Saturday morning. Otherwise, winds will be shifting this afternoon into tomorrow as a sfc low moves across portions of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 47 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 43 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 48 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 41 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 71 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 74 49 79 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.