textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts, are possible in northwest Oklahoma this afternoon into the evening.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Friday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Convection in Kansas has been more widespread and farther south than many of the models suggested with outflow pushing south of the current convection as well. While it is still most likely that the storms will remain to the north, have added an area of low POPs near the Kansas border for early this morning and will watch trends.

Similar to yesterday, the forecast heat indices in north central Oklahoma would support an Excessive Heat Warning again for this afternoon. However, there is at least some question on how the convection in Kansas and associated outflow will affect the weather later today, so will wait until later in the shift to watch trends and decide if and where to issue an Excessive Heat Warning.

Many models show a potential repeat of shower/thunderstorm potential in the northwest this afternoon, and have expanded the area with POPs a little broader than the NBM.

Fire Weather conditions will be elevated again this afternoon, although the wind is not expected to be as strong. We will issue a Fire Danger Statement for western portions of the CWA. We will also have to watch for the potential of dry lightning with the elevated convection in the northwest this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The heat continues, but there is some potential for slight moderation of the heat in the north on Sunday as a weak boundary is progged by many models to move into northern Oklahoma. This boundary will also give somewhat higher precipitation chances in the north late Sunday and Sunday night.

At this point, will keep the Heat Advisory as is with the highest chances of reaching criteria across the eastern half of the forecast area, although there will be the chance that the advisory will eventually be expanded.

Elevated fire weather concerns continue in the west and north on Saturday. Lighter winds in the vicinity of the boundary may keep conditions more in check on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper ridge axis gets shifted down into Texas this weekend into Monday with a weak upper wave progged to move from the central Plains into the mid- Mississippi Valley, which will likely keep the surface boundary in northern Oklahoma and moderate temperatures across the north on Monday. Beyond that, the differences in the patterns depicted by the medium-range models give more uncertainty as we get later into the week. The operational GFS shows a trough moving into the Plains on Wednesday night with the trough slowly moving through Thursday, while the 12Z ECMWF still shows us underneath the eastern limb of a large upper ridge. Will be watching the trends over the next few days to see if we will likely remain hot under the ridge or have an increasing chances of storms and more seasonal temperatures mid to late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR category will prevail during the upcoming period. Have opted to add mention of low-level wind shear at several central and northern Oklahoma terminals early on Friday given signal for a slightly stronger low-level jet feature here.

Similar to today, widely scattered (high-based) convection is expected across northwestern Oklahoma on Friday afternoon into evening, offering potential for gusty & erratic winds. Otherwise, a gusty south-southwesterly surface wind and patches of high clouds are expected across Oklahoma and north Texas tomorrow.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 103 79 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 106 81 104 77 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 106 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 107 78 103 75 / 10 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 105 81 104 78 / 0 0 10 10 Durant OK 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004-005-009-010- 014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.