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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday afternoon into the evening across southeast Oklahoma.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on Tuesday.

- Frost possible Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The primary feature of note and the driver of today's forecast is a rather weak surface low across the Southern Plains. As of early this morning, regional wind/pressure observations show that surface cyclone to be very near Woodward/Gage at a minimum pressure of about 997 mb. Throughout the rest of the morning, pressure rises will occur as the primary polar jet streak ejects into the Great Lakes. This will cause the surface low to both weaken and arc south/eastward throughout the day, through the OKC metro a little after sunrise and along the spine of the Ouachitas by late afternoon.

What does that synoptic-scale analysis tell us? Mostly, it tells us a rather strong cold front (at least for the month of May) will be moving through. The front and areas behind it will be accompanied by thick cloud cover and some drizzle during the daytime, with temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s in northern Oklahoma. High temperatures will rise with southeastward extent in proportion to how much of daylight is spent south of the frontal boundary, reaching into the mid-80s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Storms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary this afternoon from north Texas into Arkansas. It looks like most or all of our area will be too far northwest to see those storms, but Bryan/Atoka and perhaps adjacent counties to the northwest will have the best chance to see convection initiation overhead. The environment will be moderately unstable, but veered surface winds should lead to messy shear profiles. Combined with frontal forcing being parallel to storm motion, this looks like a recipe for upscale growth of updrafts.

Low rain chances will move into northwest Oklahoma late tonight as a band of upslope/postfrontal rain traverses southward down the lee of the Rockies. Low-level saturation never really looks like it is achieved in the model guidance, so expect any overnight precip totals in the region to be light.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The postfrontal regime continues into tomorrow with the surface front reaching well into central Texas. Despite that and lingering east/northeast winds, guidance depicts breaks in cloud cover developing and a decent amount of insolation in western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. That will allow temperatures to reach into the 70s in the region - cooler than we have seen the last several days, but not much of a cooldown. By contrast, thick stratus will hold on north of I-40 and once again leave temperatures in the 50s during the afternoon. Rain chances are rather low and mostly confined to northwest Oklahoma nearest to the upslope storm that will continue.

Cold temperatures will be a concern for agriculture/gardening Thursday morning, as we have entered well inside of our growing season. For the most part, low temperatures will be a byproduct of how low dewpoints end up getting during the dry advection regime the day prior. For most of us, temperatures will end up in the 40s - cold enough to cause issues with sensitive vegetation, but not cold enough for frost. However, northwest (and maybe north central) Oklahoma will get into the mid-to-upper 30s. Sporadic frost issues look like they could be in play here.

After all of that, Thursday's weather will be anticlimactic in the most pleasant kind of way. The subtropical jet will depart, clearing skies and decreasing winds. Sunny skies and highs near 70 will occur across the area.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

As quickly as the mini-cooldown arrived, it will be gone with the subtropical jet's departure and we'll move back into a mini-heatwave on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will push into the low-90s in western north Texas on the former day and near 100 on the latter. Precipitation chances will be minimal.

Following that, northwest flow gets introduced into the equation as the subtropical ridge expands and dominates across the western half of the country. It's still a little early in the warm season for northwest flow to be automatically associated with convection off of the high terrain to our northwest, but there's at least some signal on global guidance being wrapped into our NBM/gridded forecast on Sunday and Monday. That is decidedly not the case on Tuesday, as the ridge deamplifies and migrates eastward. The signal on Tuesday would suggest that record-breaking heat is within the distribution of reasonable outcomes.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A strong low-level jet ahead of an approaching cold front will maintain low-level wind shear conditions across most of our terminals until the cold front arrival. Prior to the cold front arrival surface winds will persist out of the south around 10-15 kts gusting up to 20 kts. The cold front currently stretched across Kansas is expected to start pushing into northern Oklahoma around 08Z eventually reaching terminals along the I-44 corridor around 13-14Z. Surface winds will be shifting out of the north behind the cold front sustained around 20 kts gusting up to 25 kts. The cold front/wind shift will reach our furthest southeast terminal of KDUA toward 00Z. Stratus will be increasing behind the cold front with lowering ceilings reducing our terminals to a MVFR category which could persist across many of our terminals through the remainder of the forecast period. As far as any post-frontal convection or along the frontal boundary, terminal KPNC has a 30% probability for an isolated thunderstorm between 12-15Z while terminal KDUA has 30% probability for potentially severe storm activity between 21-02Z as the cold front moves through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 47 64 43 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 70 46 69 43 / 0 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 84 51 73 47 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 61 40 55 36 / 20 30 20 30 Ponca City OK 61 45 59 39 / 20 30 0 10 Durant OK 88 56 71 51 / 20 30 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.