textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Very windy through early evening with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph. - Near-crticial to critical fire weather through this evening, mainly due to strong winds

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in the single digits and teens.

- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A rather busy afternoon with several ongoing hazards, such as: strong damaging winds, wildfires, and blowing dust. The strongest cold air advection is beginning to shift into central and southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. This may shift the stronger wind gusts away form northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. Otherwise, wind gusts over 55 mph will remain possible before diminishing into the 35 to 40 mph range early this evening. The reduced wind speeds will help elevate wildfire behavior and low visibility with blowing dust.

A hard freeze is expected across the area tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the 20s. The wind will remain breezy, so wind chill values will range from the single digits to upper teens by early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday with surface high pressure building south of the area. A northerly wind will become southeast and south Monday night into Tuesday. Temperature will rebound quickly on Tuesday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s (most areas). With dry return flow and a breezy southerly wind, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will develop Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb) builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to point towards the potential for record heat across the area with widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably, even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time. Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next 7 days if not longer.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

All terminals expected to remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. The main issue impacting our terminals overnight will be the sustained wind speeds and strong gusts at the surface as the wind direction will stay north-northwesterly through the forecast period. The surface pressure gradient starts to weaken by 12Z as high pressure starts building in from the west with sustained winds decreasing 10-15 kts. A north to south aligned low-level jet will persist tonight eventually weakening by 18Z. Vertical mixing likely persist through much of tonight keeping wind gusts at 30-40 kts at least through 10Z after which some decoupling could reduce them 20-30 kts through 18Z. After 18Z mixing begins although weaker flow at the mixing height keeping gusts at 15-20 kts through 23Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 24 46 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 22 51 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 27 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 19 50 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 20 43 23 64 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 29 48 29 62 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>017-021>023-033>039-044-045.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006- 009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030- 033>040-044-045.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043- 046>048-050>052.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.