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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Red Flag Warning is in effect across western and central OK for critical fire weather conditions today.

- A Wind Advisory is also in effect all day today west of I-35 and into western north Texas with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

- Elevated fire weather expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Drier air continues to filter into the area behind a cold front that has now cleared the entire area. After a bit of a lull in the gustier winds this morning, wind gusts over 40 mph have returned to northern and western OK as a strong jet speed max shifts southward into the area and mixing into this layer increases with daytime heating. We have also observed significant dew point drops ~10 degrees or more in an hour in western OK. As drying continues through the afternoon, relative humidity will fall as low as 10-20%. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected, with the period of greatest concern being between about 1-5 pm this afternoon. Conditions will improve this evening as winds decrease and temperatures cool further, but overall relative humidity recovery will be poor tonight (only rising to about 30-35%).

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A piece of energy will rotate around the backside of the longwave trough on Saturday, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air with it. Models had been showing light precipitation with this system but continue to decrease these chances as a very dry subcloud layer will be very difficult to overcome. Maintained mention of a few flurries Saturday morning, but confined it to our far west/southwest counties. The rest of the area should remain dry.

Of greater concern will be the potential for another day of fire weather Saturday. Winds will be lower than today but are still expected to remain gusty from the northwest through the day. Gusts could reach 25-35 mph at times and with the dry airmass remaining in place, relative humidity will drop to near or below 20% during the afternoon which will lead to elevated fire conditions. Highs on Saturday will be chilly once again, only reaching the low to mid 40s in most areas, with upper 30s across far northern OK.

A significant warming trend is expected Sunday as winds veer and a downslope-warmed airmass advects into the area. Southwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph and low afternoon humidity will once again create elevated fire conditions for much of the area. Highs will range from mid 60s SW to mid 50s NE.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The work week will start off chilly following Sunday night's cold front before temperatures warm back to near normal by midweek. By Wednesday, a shortwave may bring increased chances for low-level moisture to parts of southeast Oklahoma. Any chances for rain remain low (<20%) at this time. Another weak cold front towards the end of the week will keep temperatures near normal. The good news is the front will not scour the low-level moisture, which helps to mitigate fire weather concerns.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

NNW winds will begin to increase within the next hour or two, with gusts to 45 mph possible this afternoon near KWWR and KCSM. Few to scattered mid/high level clouds will move across parts of the area tonight and tomorrow. LLWS of 40 to 50 kts (near the 1kft to 1.5kft level) is possible late tonight into tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 25 41 18 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 25 45 17 60 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 28 47 21 61 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 22 40 14 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 21 37 14 54 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 31 46 19 57 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>007-009>012- 014>019-021>025-027>029-033>040-044-045.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>007- 009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.