textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Above-average temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also increase with the arrival of the front.

- A pattern change will bring higher and widespread rain chances middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

An upper air disturbance will skirt northern Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Mid-level clouds associated with the disturbance will yield some light radar echos, but rather dry air below cloud base should limit any precipitation from reaching the ground. By sunrise Thursday, this feature will be well east of Oklahoma. Light winds and high humidity over southeast Oklahoma may result in patchy areas of fog, but any fog that develops should dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the region today, or at least the wind will shift to a northerly direction. With very little cold advection associated with the front, highs temperatures will be similar to Wednesday's highs.

One thing to watch during the afternoon will be deeper mixing across northwest Oklahoma and perhaps central sections of the state. If deeper mixing occurs, stronger afternoon gusts may develop (25-30 mph) and afternoon humidity will be slightly lower. This could result in an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions. At this time will stick with less mixing and lower wind gusts.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 145 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Light winds are expected Thursday night, as weak surface high pressure builds over the region. Mid-level clouds are expected to develop across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas during the evening and overnight, which will limit radiational cooling. Other areas will have a better chance of cooling quickly with perhaps a chance of shallow ground fog by Friday morning.

A southerly wind will return on Friday along with a modest increase in near-surface moisture. Although the wind may gusts to 25 mph across western Oklahoma Friday afternoon, humidity levels are expected to remain at or near 25 percent.

Moisture will continue to increase on Saturday as southerly winds prevail ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will warm to near record values, especially across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Weak boundary layer instability will develop Saturday afternoon, but forcing may not be sufficient for showers or thunderstorms. As a cold front approaches and moves into northern Oklahoma, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase, especially across north central and central Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

With Sunday being the first day of March, it seems fitting that we will have a change in our weather. The main weather feature Sunday will be a southward moving cold front. Currently, it appears the front should at least move across the northern half of Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon, with the front reaching southern Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday night into early Monday. The deterministic GFS pushes the front through most of the area by 6 pm Sunday while other models are slower. Behind the frontal boundary, moisture will continue to deepen which should result in areas of light rain and eventually elevated showers and storms. Central and eastern Oklahoma should see this pattern emerge first (better moisture depth) while western Oklahoma and northern Texas have lower precipitation chances. Naturally, the frontal timing and movement will augment the timing and location of any precipitation. On Monday, precipitation chances will decrease as the depth of a moist, stable layer decreases.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase again Tuesday into Wednesday, as an upper low/trough approaches the southern Plains from the west. How far moisture is displaced into central/southern Texas with the cold front Monday will influence how far the warm sector will return into northern Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday into Wednesday. Regardless, it appears beneficial rainfall will overspread the area by midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Patchy fog is ongoing this morning across south central into southeast Oklahoma, which will impact KDUA for the next couple hours with IFR visibilities. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Light northerly winds will increase in speed later this morning. These winds will become light and variable this evening into tonight.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 74 44 76 48 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 40 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 70 39 77 46 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.