textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1027 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- The fire danger risk will be elevated this afternoon across our far west.

- Unseasonably warmer temperatures expected into next week with our next chance for rain on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Winds will continue to veer to the northwest today as the next frontal passage makes its way across the area. There is not much cold air advection with this front, so expecting afternoon highs to still get up to the upper 60s to low 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across far western Oklahoma, down to adjacent western north Texas. Westerly winds ahead of the front will promote lower RH values to be advected into the aforementioned area of concern. Fuels may not be as receptive to spreading fires, but given the well-above average temperatures expected, still could have some low end fire weather threat this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Mid-level ridging will overspread the Plains later this week into the weekend. Friday afternoon temperatures are expected to be well- above average despite northerly winds increasing during the afternoon. Overall, temperatures will be in the upper 60s (north) to upper 70s (south). On Saturday, there is a signal for much cooler temperatures vs guidance. This is primarily due to a shallow, cold air mass still in place across the area. In addition, stratus is expected across much of the area, which will help keep temperatures in the upper 50s to perhaps low 60s. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend as well.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Split upper flow persists Sunday with a warm cutoff system stalled over the Baja California Peninsula in the subtropical flow. A weak Pacific cold front pushes through on Sunday and with little cooling behind it will see mild temperatures in the 70s by afternoon. Model guidance with the stalled system advancing early next week although inconsistent to timing with a faster GFS solution lifting it across Texas on Tuesday and the slower ECMWF on Wednesday. With this warm system coming up from the south and a colder system pushing a cold front through our area Tuesday or Wednesday with increasing surface moisture, rain chances will be increasing on Tuesday & Wednesday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm (70s) early next week perhaps as much as 20 degrees above normal. A potential cold front could knock temperatures down a bit more by mid-week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light westerly (somewhat variable) winds will continue through the night. Tomorrow may see some slight breeziness during the afternoon as winds turn more northerly. VFR conditions are expected.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 45 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 70 40 73 34 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 41 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 37 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 64 37 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 43 77 38 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.