textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma through the weekend.

- Dry conditions and mostly above normal temperatures expected into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Cold air advection in the wake of cold front, will maintain a gusty northerly wind through the afternoon. Although afternoon temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday, afternoon humidity will approach 25 to 30 percent across parts of southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. This will result in near- critical to elevated fire weather conditions.

The wind will diminish quickly this evening, as surface high pressure builds over Oklahoma. With a dry air mass in place, temperatures will cool quickly this evening. By early Thursday morning, a freeze is expected across most of northern and western Oklahoma.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Dry return flow will occur on Thursday, as high pressure builds southward into northern Texas by mid afternoon. A rather tight pressure gradient will develop, especially across northwestern and west central Oklahoma. This and mixing will result in wind gusts of 35+ mph. Afternoon humidity will also plummet to around 15 percent across the western half of Oklahoma and northern Texas. This is expected to bring a near-critical fire weather environment during the afternoon. Therefore, we will covert northern parts of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and keep other parts of southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas in a watch.

Surface winds will remain breezy Thursday night with very strong low-level winds developing during the evening and overnight. This will keep overnight lows mainly in the 40s. Humidity recovery by early Friday morning will be fair to good.

Surface winds will become east and northeast behind a weak cold front Friday. Despite weak cold air advection, temperatures will still warm to near 70 across northern Oklahoma. Central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas may keep more of a east to southeast surface flow Friday afternoon, which will result in modest moisture return.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Dry conditions will persist into next week with fire weather potential occurring each day. A warm up is expected Saturday, with temperatures in the 80s for most locations, and potentially in the 90s across western north Texas. A strong cold front will move in Sunday, with gusty to potentially strong winds in its wake. Much drier air will also follow this frontal passage. This in mind, there will be the potential for widespread near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across the entire area. In terms of fire weather, this will be a day to keep in mind over the coming days, as the ceiling could be high. Below normal temperatures expected Monday, before a mid- level ridge inches closer to the southern Plains, and a warm up ensues into the middle portions of next week.

Bunker

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the entire TAF period at all sites. Breezy north winds will diminish shortly after sunset this evening with light and variable winds overnight. A return to southerly surface winds is expected by tomorrow morning with increasing breezy winds through afternoon at all sties except DUA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 34 64 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 31 66 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 34 66 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 30 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 30 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 37 63 44 73 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>017-021>023-033>035.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>019-021>025- 027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for OKZ036>038.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>087.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ083>089.