textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across northern Oklahoma with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards.

- The weekend into early next week will continue to feature an active pattern of showers and storms, some strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return early next week, especially across portions of western Oklahoma, especially if rainfall remains limited in that area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the early portions of the afternoon across the northern two tiers of counties. Main hazard associated with this activity would be lightning and small hail. Afternoon heating, in addition to dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, will help bolster instability by the middle of the afternoon. Additional thunderstorms along a weak cold front are possible across the northern half of the area as the frontal boundary inevitably stalls. Given the overall weak shear and moderate instability parameterization this afternoon, there is a low chance that the strongest cores that develop this afternoon and evening will have the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Aforementioned storms should diminish in coverage and intensity shortly after sunset.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Isentropic ascent will continue Saturday, which will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. Given the thermodynamic profiles characterized by "tall, skinny CAPE", updrafts are not expected to be robust enough to produce large hail or damaging wind gusts during the morning. Nevertheless, an updraft or two may over perform and produce hail up to quarters during the morning hours -- although, small hail appears to be the likely scenario.

Height falls and increasing southwesterly flow will be influenced by both the incoming mid-level trough across California and a shortwave that is expected to move through Texas during the afternoon. Surface moisture will continue to increase northward into Kansas, where much of our area will have dewpoints in the low to mid 60s by the afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate off a dryline that will be positioned across west Texas. Storms are expected to grow upscale into a line during the evening hours and shift eastward into western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Storms are expected to weaken during the evening and into the overnight hours as instability decreases. Deepening moisture within the vertical profile may foster an increased flooding threat for this line of storms as it moves eastward into Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday morning.

Sunday's severe risk is a little uncertain, as Saturday night into Sunday morning's storms may "overwork" the environment and limit the destabilization during the day Sunday. If the environment can recover, a dryline is expected to mix just east of the 100th meridian, which will be the focal point for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. If storms can form along this boundary, all hazards will be possible, especially storms that remain isolated into the evening hours.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The upper shortwave will swing across the Great Basin region of the U.S. on Monday and continue to slide eastward towards the Plains by Tuesday. Patterns aloft begin to diverge in solutions by midweek next week and the exact timing of the passing shortwave(s) will determine the best days for additional severe weather potential. As of now, Monday and Tuesday still appear to be potential severe weather days with a dryline setup. Wednesday's potential for severe weather could be shifted eastward if the shortwave passes through by then. Details on the exact timing and potential for hazardous weather heading into next week will continue to be refined as the upper wave approaches the western coast this weekend. Fire weather may also make a return early next week, west of the dryline. So not only will the dryline positioning be key for storms, but also for potential fire weather concerns, especially if areas across western OKlahoma do not receive sufficient rainfall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A smattering of stratocumulus is found across much of the area. Right on the 3,000 foot ceiling line and the SCT/BKN cutoff as well, so VFR vs MVFR conditions may bounce around at random at certain sites. Of greater impact is the area of thunderstorms from Enid eastward through Stillwater. This area along a frontal boundary will continue to see storm development this afternoon and evening with gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible. Storms should decay shortly after sunset. More widespread stratus is expected to develop tonight.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 60 78 62 78 / 10 40 80 80 Hobart OK 60 79 60 82 / 20 60 90 60 Wichita Falls TX 62 81 63 82 / 10 40 90 70 Gage OK 56 77 57 85 / 20 70 70 30 Ponca City OK 59 79 61 78 / 30 50 80 80 Durant OK 61 81 64 78 / 10 20 50 90

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.