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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Severe thunderstorm risk on Friday evening and again Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
- Hot & muggy conditions continue on Saturday, with heat indices near and above 100-105 degrees in the afternoon and evening. - Active pattern continues through the weekend, with additional chances for rain and storms. Locally heavy rain/flooding possible.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Front is expected to stall near or just north of the Red River this morning with some lingering showers and thunderstorms, mainly across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As we progress through the day the front will lift back north and wash out near the Kansas border. Although a few showers may occur through the afternoon much of the day is expected to be dry outside of the morning activity across the south. With the expected cloud cover temperatures will be mainly in the 80s Friday afternoon.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
As we go into Friday evening an area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. This activity is then anticipated to develop into a complex of storms that will move east and southeast toward northwest Oklahoma. This complex will move east across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas overnight with the potential for a few strong storms across these areas, but anticipate an overall decrease in intensity as it moves through northern Oklahoma.
In the wake of these storms, much of the day Saturday looks dry with and much warmer as veered low level flow aids in bringing afternoon temperatures well back into the 90s and lower 100s (across northwest OK). A pre-frontal thermal ridge will also contribute to the hot conditions across the northwest. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the area Saturday afternoon.
The aforementioned front will move into northern/northwest Oklahoma Saturday afternoon where another round of convection will develop. Modest instability will result in the potential for strong to severe storms as well as some locally heavy rainfall. This activity is again expected to decrease in intensity as we go through the overnight.
The front will continue to push south on Sunday and is expected to be in north Texas by late afternoon. Higher chances of rain will gradually shift south during the day Sunday with much cooler conditions to the north of the front. Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the middle 70s across the northern half of Oklahoma with low to mid 80s across the south. Cold front will continue to move south across Texas Sunday night with some lingering showers and thunderstorms across mainly the southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
As the cooler and drier air overspreads the area, after a chance of some lingering showers across the south early, expect mainly dry and cool conditions by Monday afternoon. Highs will only climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
South winds return Tuesday as we start a warm up into the middle of the upcoming week. Windy and hot conditions expected by Wednesday as daytime highs return to the upper 90s and lower 100s along and northwest of I-44. These conditions may linger through the end of the week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
An outflow boundary is pushing west across LAW/SPS this afternoon with some scattered shower and storm development possible. Otherwise, the next chance for storms will be late tonight across northwest Oklahoma (WWR) and eastward into northern Oklahoma (PNC/SWO). Highest confidence for storms will be in northwest Oklahoma with decreasing confidence on how far east the activity lasts. Any storms that develop will be capable of lightning and strong erratic wind gusts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 74 95 68 76 / 10 0 80 40 Hobart OK 73 98 67 80 / 10 0 70 50 Wichita Falls TX 74 96 72 84 / 10 0 60 50 Gage OK 72 101 62 75 / 40 50 80 40 Ponca City OK 74 96 66 76 / 30 60 90 20 Durant OK 77 92 76 84 / 10 0 70 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None. TX...None.
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