textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 215 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Hot and humid for Independence Day which will create a risk for heat related illnesses.

- Some severe storm potential in northern Oklahoma late afternoon and evening on Independence Day.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Scattered showers have developed across southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon, and these will persist into this evening before dissipating. Some of these may produce some very heavy rainfall. To the northwest, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the High Plains of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. There is some potential that these storms may move into northwestern Oklahoma, but the current high-resolution models suggest that this potential is pretty low as the storms are more likely to dissipate before reaching the main body of Oklahoma.

Otherwise another warm night is expected with lows in the mid to upper 70s across much of the area, except for northwest Oklahoma where lows will be in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A hot day is expected tomorrow for Independence Day celebrations. We will be borderline Heat Advisory heat index numbers tomorrow, but there is some uncertainty on how much high cloud cover could keep temperatures from reaching their full potential tomorrow. Because of that, we have not issued a Heat Advisory yet, but regardless it will be hot and will be messaging this through products and social media channels, and would not be surprised if the overnight shift sees enough to issue an advisory.

The other issue tomorrow is the expected afternoon development of storms along a cold front in Kansas, and perhaps along an area of surface flow confluence in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. These storms are expected to spread into northern Oklahoma in the early evening hours. Instability will be sufficient for severe storms, and although low-level wind shear is forecast to be relatively week, surface to 6km wind shear will be stronger and able to support more organization in these thunderstorms. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms across northern Oklahoma for this potential, and the area that they outlined seems reasonable. Interests organizing evening outdoor activities across northern Oklahoma should monitor the weather situation.

Scattered storms will likely linger into the daylight hours on Sunday as the cold front moves into northern Oklahoma Sunday morning. But then additional storms will develop near the front on Sunday afternoon persisting into the evening before decreasing in coverage overnight. This front will also bring slightly lower temperatures for Sunday afternoon across northern and some of central Oklahoma, but will likely not move far enough south to bring lower highs to southern Oklahoma or north Texas on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The ridge will continue to spin over the Desert Southwest with continued heat through next week. Daily diurnal shower and storm chances may return through the week with weak embedded shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Fair-weather cu is developing southeast of I-44 early this afternoon. Should stay VFR everywhere but a few ceilings of around 4,000 feet are possible. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms this afternoon particularly in the vicinity of DUA. Otherwise, VFR conditions and southerly winds continue.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 99 75 96 / 0 0 30 20 Hobart OK 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 77 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 72 100 71 95 / 10 20 40 10 Ponca City OK 74 96 72 89 / 0 10 70 40 Durant OK 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.