textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Rainy/stormy day and night expected across the region; Severe thunderstorms will be possible across southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler across northern and central Oklahoma on Thursday with rebounding heat by this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Widespread rainfall is expected to continue for most of the area today, as a weak cold front slowly moves southward through the day. A mid-level perturbation within the eastern periphery of the ridge across the Desert Southwest, will move southeastward across the area. This feature will help to provide just enough large scale scent for continued development of showers and thunderstorms along the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Locations north of the front are likely to see high temperatures not get out of the 80s this afternoon. Locations south of the front will likely see 90s this afternoon. This afternoon, strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front. These storms will be able to tap into an environment that will support strong to severe wind gusts. Given the path of the mid- level perturbation, the best chance (30-50%) for any location to see over a half inch of rainfall will be across eastern and southeastern Oklahoma. Some of the heavier bands of precipitation could allow for localized rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The aforementioned mid-level perturbation is expected to wash out/move towards the east Friday, with increasing mid-level heights by the afternoon. A few showers/thunderstorms may linger into Friday morning across southern and southeastern Oklahoma, but generally speaking, Friday should mostly be dry. With mostly sunny skies and the return to southerly winds, afternoon temperatures are expected to jump back into the 90s across most of the area. Locations across north central Oklahoma have the best chance of seeing highs potentially remain in the upper 80s.

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is expected to move its way across the central Plains late Friday into early Saturday. This activity is expected to move across southeast KS into northeastern OK, potentially clipping portions of north central Oklahoma. This activity should weaken as it moves into Oklahoma, however, strong winds may still be associated with it as it moves across our area. There is a signal for potential redevelopment of storms across north central Oklahoma later Saturday afternoon, but with increasing mid- level heights expected, there is a lot of uncertainty in this outcome.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

We look to remain generally dry with continued above-normal warmth on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies. Daily highs look to continue running in the mid-90s to low-100s, with potential for even warmer heat indices.

The next curveball in the forecast arrives on Tuesday into Wednesday, as a strong upper trough begins to round the periphery of the ridge. There is increasingly strong agreement that this feature will push a notable front southward across the Plains during this time. If this occurs, and reaches our area, "less hot" conditions would materialize towards the end of the period. As of this morning, grand ensemble guidance shows a medium (30-60%) chance for daytime highs <90 deg F across portions of western into northern Oklahoma from Tuesday onward.

Ungar

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Most of the cloud cover and precip has dissipated this evening. Some chance for redevelopment later tonight into Friday morning. Rain chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be light tonight and continue to be light from the south on Friday. Have included some patchy fog at PNC/SWO/DUA where heavier precip occurred earlier today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 93 73 97 / 10 10 10 40 Hobart OK 69 99 74 102 / 20 20 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 71 100 75 103 / 40 20 0 10 Gage OK 64 96 71 100 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 65 90 69 93 / 10 10 30 60 Durant OK 73 96 74 100 / 50 40 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.