textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early this week.

- Breezy southerly winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions, primarily across northwest Oklahoma, Monday through Wednesday.

- A more active pattern is expected to bring a return of showers and thunderstorms to the area by the end of the week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A ~1027 mb surface high in the wake of the last night's cold front has brought a cooler and drier air mass across the Southern Plains. As a result, temperatures this morning are in the 30s and 40s deg F. Some patchy frost is possible across northern Oklahoma with dew points near or below freezing.

With the surface high remaining in close proximity, a pleasant day is expected with light winds, abundant sunshine, and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Seasonable and dry conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. In response, a strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds--especially across northwest Oklahoma.

Initially, moisture advection appears somewhat limited, so elevated fire weather conditions are possible across northwest Oklahoma. This area received no rainfall last week, so the vegetation (fuels) remain susceptible wildfire spread.

High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s deg F as the low-level thermal ridge will remain to our west.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Warmer weather will return Wednesday and Thursday as the low- level thermal ridge across the southwest U.S. expands to the east--placing the Southern Plains on the eastern periphery. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s deg F. Increasing moisture advection should offset the higher temperatures, which should keep the relative humidity values from becoming too low. Therefore, fire weather conditions are expected to remain only elevated.

An active synoptic-scale pattern is forecast to develop by late week into next weekend as both deterministic models and the mean of their ensemble members indicate that southwest flow aloft will likely develop across the Southern Plains as a large-scale trough or cutoff low develops across the southwest U.S.

This pattern will be favorable for appreciable moisture advection/increased instability in tandem with synopic-scale ascent/increased vertical wind shear as shortwave troughs eject into the Plains. While the exact details are yet to be determined, this will result in an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms with some potential for heavy rainfall and/or severe weather.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR condition will prevail through 6Z Monday. A light northeast wind will become light southeast across western Oklahoma with a northeast to east wind prevailing elsewhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 70 41 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 69 41 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 69 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.