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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Dangerous heat expected through the week and the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon with temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 90s to around 100. This heat along with humid conditions will likely lead to triple digit heat index values across most, if not all, of the fa with heat index values of 105+ possible in some locations, generally in the eastern third to half of the fa. With these heat index values still expected, will maintain the current heat advisory which is in effect until 8 pm this evening.

Warm night expected tonight with temperatures forecast to only fall into the mid/upper 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Upper ridge is expected to continue to build into the region with the center of the upper high near or moving into the southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. At the sfc, southwest to westerly winds are expected Tuesday ahead of a frontal boundary that is expected to approach and move into parts of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. These factors along with a thermal ridge ahead of the front ("pre- frontal torching") will lead to even hotter conditions Tuesday. Triple digit highs are expected across most of the fa Tuesday afternoon with heat index values of 105+ across most of the area as well. Some locations, mainly in eastern parts of the fa where dewpoints are generally higher, could see heat index values of 110- 114. The forecast temperatures and heat index values are some of the hottest of the year so far for many locations. With all this in mind, have issued an Excessive Heat Warning for eastern parts of the fa, including the OKC metro, with a Heat Advisory across the rest of the area.

The previously mentioned frontal boundary is expected to lead to temperatures that are a few degrees cooler (highs low 90s to low 100s) on Wednesday, especially in north central OK but still remain hot. A heat advisory will probably be needed for Wednesday as well but some uncertainty of exactly where due to uncertainty of where the boundary will end up.

The forecast remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is typical with this weather pattern, but can not completely rule out a few isolated pop-up showers developing in the afternoon (a few CAMs hinting at this), especially with a boundary in the area. However, any rain chances are very low right now and most of the area will likely not see a drop of rain.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Another hot day across the area on Thursday. However both the GFS and Euro are now showing a stronger wave moving through the Plains on Thursday night and Friday. The GFS being the stronger of the two models, which might suppress the ridge sufficiently for a front to move into the area along with perhaps some precip chances Friday into Saturday. The Euro is more reserved and keeps the precip to our north and east, so we will not get overly excited about this prospect yet, but it is something to watch. The latest NBM is introducing some low pops for late Friday. However, the better bet is for a few degrees of cooling, otherwise, the heat will continue through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.

I guess one thing to watch is the gulf as a possible tropical system takes shape over the next couple of days. Currently is does not appear that this system will have any direct impact on Oklahoma or north Texas as the upper high keeps the system well to our south across south Texas into northern Mexico.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions and generally light south to southwest winds will continue through most of the TAF period. Toward tomorrow morning, expect winds to veer more toward westerly.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 105 78 99 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 105 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 104 74 100 / 0 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 78 103 75 92 / 0 10 10 0 Durant OK 78 103 80 101 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014>017-021>023-027-028-033>041-044>047-050-051.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 017>020-024>026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-048-052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.