textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Showers/thunderstorms will continue today across much of the area. Some areas east of I-35 could see excessive rainfall while a cluster of severe storms capable of producing large hail & damaging wind gusts are possible across our west.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through next weekend across portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

An omega blocking pattern aloft will persist across the country with the upper high ridge over the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and one of the closed lows over the U.S. West. Downstream from the aforementioned low a negatively tilted trough will remain displaced lee of the Rocky Mountains through the Central & Southern Plains all over a surface trough stretched across the Southern through Central High Plains. Strong surface moisture already in place with 60s dewpoints which should persist well through this entire forecast period with the dryline staying far to our west. With moisture in place and forcing up through the mid-levels will maintain a "wet" forecast across parts of our area this afternoon and evening with rain showers potentially becoming convective as diurnal instability increases.

An overnight MCV over northern Texas east of the DFW Metroplex will continue moving northward across southeast into central portions Oklahoma. Currently seeing widespread periods of heavy rain with embedded storms this afternoon into tonight although southeast Oklahoma may see a brief lull by the early morning Thursday. With a PW of 1.5 to 2.0 inches with the MCV we will need to monitor rainfall rates for excessive rainfall potential mainly east of I-35.

A second area of focus will be across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas where a cluster of storms could initiate this afternoon through overnight as well. Although soundings suggest a weak cap holding across our area it could break across parts of our western CWA where models suggest potential moderate instability off the surface although weakly sheared. Additional mid-level forcing from the trough will also increase the potential for storms across our west. Although the greatest instability and forcing will be across the Texas Panhandle where the marginal severe risk is most widespread, it does extending eastward into parts of western Oklahoma where a few of these storm clusters could produce large hail & damaging wind gusts in the afternoon until sundown. One spoiler with increasing instability and surface mixing will be our cloud cover & diurnal heating. Although currently broken to overcast skies areawide on satellite some of the lower-based clouds could scatter in some places especially where rain develops although still looks to be at least broken with mid to high based clouds. For tonight will keep rain/storm POPs highest across our western CWA at 40-60% to lower POPs 15-30% across the rest of our area.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Upper blocking pattern will persist with the negatively tilted trough over our area although models suggest the upper low closing over the Central & Southern High Plains on Thursday then opening again Friday. A persistent forecast for Thursday and Friday with some rain/storm POPs widespread across our CWA with the highest POPs Thursday across northcentral Oklahoma where forcing may be strongest. Thursday overnight might see a lull in rain/storm activity mainly south of I-40.

Temperaturewise, we will start to see a gradual warming trend with temperatures returning to more seasonably average for late May on Thursday into Friday with near 90 degree highs across our counties in western north Texas and adjacent southwest Oklahoma. It could feel a bit muggier across the eastern half of our CWA where those upper 60s to near 70 degree dewpoints will be in place.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Beyond Friday, precipitation chances will continue through the weekend with weak southwest flow aloft. Given the amount of instability still present through the weekend, a few storms may be strong enough to produce small hail and gusty winds. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area. PoPs beyond Sunday will continue into early next week, but will remain low at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue through the early morning hours, with the highest chances across north central into central Oklahoma. Low ceilings will continue to develop this morning with MVFR to IFR conditions possible at most sites before clouds begin to clear from southwest to northeast later today. Additional shower and storm chances will continue across north central Oklahoma through this afternoon before lifting northward into Kansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 63 84 68 / 40 30 20 40 Hobart OK 84 63 87 66 / 30 10 20 50 Wichita Falls TX 85 65 89 68 / 30 0 10 40 Gage OK 80 60 84 63 / 30 20 40 50 Ponca City OK 78 63 83 66 / 80 40 20 60 Durant OK 84 68 86 71 / 30 20 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.