textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Very warm temperatures expected on Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Sunday with the arrival of a cold front.

- A pattern change brings a few rounds of severe thunderstorm potential middle and end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon across western Oklahoma and creeping into west-central Oklahoma due to temperatures near 80 deg, relative humidity in the teens, and southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. Return flow has thus far advected some low-level moisture across west Texas and a dryline will take shape from the TX panhandle to west Texas by late afternoon.

Tonight, low-level southerly winds increase with the nocturnal LLJ and a surface low slides into the southwest TX panhandle by early Saturday morning as a plume moisture with dewpoint temperatures of 40 to 45 deg entering south-central and southeastern Oklahoma. Overnight low temperatures will range from the low 40's to mid-50's.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Although models differ with the degree of moisture return, a surge of higher moisture content (50 to 55 deg dewpoint temperatures) surges into western north Texas as the surface low passes near Plainview, TX and southerly winds increase on Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary also enters northwest Oklahoma by mid-morning resulting in a wind shift to the NW/N and advection of drier air behind the boundary. By mid-afternoon, the boundary is anticipated to reach the vicinity of Elk City to Enid by mid- afternoon as the frontal progression slows. Low to moderate instability develops ahead of the surface low and ahead of the front by mid-day as weak, shallow isentropic lift increases and there is a low chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm/moist sector during the day. However, lack of deep moisture will be a limiting factor.

The front sags and becomes nearly stationary near the I-40 corridor late afternoon or early evening, and chances of a few strong to marginally severe storms increase a bit around this time for parts of central and southeastern Oklahoma. Mid-level lapse rates of 7 C/km, moderate instability, and bulk shear of 40-50 kts could promote hail up to the size of quarters with lifting condensation levels of 2-3kft providing for gusty winds up to 40 mph. However, there is not a strong signal of severe weather for Saturday and the window appears limited to late afternoon and early evening when instability is greatest, with predominantly light rain possible after midnight Saturday.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances occur on Saturday night as a surge of low-level CAA arrives from Kansas and as isentropic lift deepens. This surge should aid in pushing the surface boundary south, at least very slowly on Sunday. While temperature boxplots have shrunk for some areas on Sunday (somewhat increasing confidence in temperatures), there remains about a 10 deg spread in predicted max temperatures at OKC with larger uncertainty over northern Oklahoma (e.g., there is a 20 degree difference among models at Ponca City). As it stands, the warmer solution is winning for the southern two-thirds of the FA, where highs in the 70's to 80's are forecast on Sunday. Behind the surface boundary, cooler temperatures are expected with the most likely range among ensembles in the upper 50's to upper 60's. Shower and storm chances on Sunday and Sunday night are in the medium-low category 30-50%, and cannot rule out a strong storm or two Sunday afternoon/evening. Unfortunately, widespread appreciable rainfall is not likely through this period.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 105 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

"Cooler" post-frontal temperatures Monday, but highs are still expected to get above normal in the 50s to 60s. There may be a lull in precipitation Monday before chances increase again late Monday night. An upper trough will approach the Rockies Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis will develop across the Texas Panhandle with a sharp dryline extending southward from the low. Low-level moisture will advect northward into Oklahoma with widespread dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s by the afternoon and evening hours. Rain and storm chances will increase Tuesday night and severe weather cannot be ruled out. A weak cold front Wednesday will bring some post-frontal showers.

By late next week, another trough will dig into the western CONUS and bring additional rain and storm chances to the forecast area. Details will continue to be refined, but severe weather remains possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. Surface winds will persist out of the south-southwest around 10 gusting to 15 kts as high pressure exits to our east. By 00Z expecting the surface winds to back south- southeast at 5-10 kts. A low-level jet will increase out of the south by 06Z and veer out of the south-southwest in time at 35 kts around 020 ft. As a result have low-level wind shear at all but two of our terminals in western OK where the jet will be weaker. By 16Z surface winds will return out of the south- southwest at 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts. Surface winds will have shifted out of the northwest by 17Z at terminal KWWR with a cold front approaching from Kansas. By 16Z scattered light rain may be falling across southeast Oklahoma although probabilities are too low (15-20%) at this issuance to be in the TAF for terminal KDUA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 54 79 53 73 / 20 20 30 30 Hobart OK 50 80 53 76 / 10 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 54 84 57 83 / 10 10 20 20 Gage OK 43 77 43 64 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 48 79 43 60 / 10 10 20 40 Durant OK 52 79 56 78 / 20 20 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.