textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Showers/storms possible this afternoon through overnight, especially across parts of northern OK. Some of the storms could be severe.

- Potentially strong storms will be possible again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Rain/storm chances continue through the rest of the week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Although winds and convergence are relatively weak, the pressure analysis continues to show a weak boundary across northern Oklahoma winding back to a surface low in southeastern Colorado. Some cumulus has begun to form near this boundary in Oklahoma and some showers and storms may develop in this area late this afternoon and this evening. Sufficient instability is developing along this area to support strong to potentially severe storms as SPC mesoanalysis is showing 2000-4000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE as well as weakening convective inhibition. Winds shear is low given the relatively weak wind field in low and mid levels, so expect storms to be pulse storms in general, although some of the storms last night showed more persistence.

Additional thunderstorms are currently developing over the Colorado High Plains with upslope flow over Kansas and eastern Colorado. Some of the CAMs suggest these storms or additional development tonight in western Kansas may develop into a storm complex that moves toward northern Oklahoma overnight. These storms will also have severe weather potential, especially for the potential of wind.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Low-level flow tomorrow (such as around 850 mb) is more backed and this shifts the low-level thermal axis farther to the west, and a surface boundary (rather it be a synoptic front and/or an outflow boundary is expected to move south through the area. So temperatures are not expected to be quite as warm tomorrow compared to today. But with this boundary in the area, thunderstorm development is expected again in the afternoon with the focus shifting south with the front through the day. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms as well, but this potential will be dependent on how things evolve overnight and early Tuesday.

With this surface boundary shifting to the south and a broad area of upslope flow onto the High Plains north of the boundary and a shortwave trough approaching in the weak southwest flow aloft, shower and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday across the west with storms or a storm complex moving in from the High Plains late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Active pattern will continue with showers/storms remaining possible across at least parts of the area for the rest of the week into next weekend. With the rain/clouds, temperatures are expected to remain around average for early June for the rest of the week into the weekend as well.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated thunderstorms are occurring this evening, but currently are not very close to any of the TAF sites. The storm potential at KCSM, KWWR, KOKC and KOUN are not zero this evening, but are too low to include a prob30 group. But strong and gusty winds will be possible near any thunderstorms are occurring.

Other thunderstorms developing over western Kansas are expected to spread southeast this evening and overnight, and there is enough potential at KPNC and KSWO to include prob30 groups for these storms late this evening into Tuesday morning. Gusty winds will be possible near these thunderstorms as well.

Apart from thunderstorms, VFR conditions are generally expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 92 69 86 / 20 30 10 10 Hobart OK 71 95 68 87 / 10 20 30 60 Wichita Falls TX 72 95 69 88 / 0 20 30 40 Gage OK 69 92 66 84 / 30 20 30 80 Ponca City OK 72 87 68 84 / 30 20 10 10 Durant OK 74 93 70 86 / 10 30 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.