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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 210 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Increased cloud cover and cooler today and Saturday.

- Above-average temperatures return early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 210 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Cooler weather has arrived in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Low stratus clouds across Kansas will continue to expand to the south this morning. Ahead of the stratus, light winds, recent rainfall, and a saturated boundary layer will likely result in the development of patchy fog this morning.

The stratus will eventually expand into the northern half of Oklahoma later this morning. These stratus clouds will likely persist throughout much of the day across north central into central Oklahoma with overcast to broken skies.

As a result of the abundant cloud cover across north central/central Oklahoma, temperatures are likely to only reach the low to mid 50s deg F. Depending on how long the stratus persists, some locations may stay in the 40s deg F much of the day and only top out near 50 deg F. If by chance the stratus breaks out earlier than anticipated, temperatures will approach 60 deg F. Across southern Oklahoma into western north Texas, high temperatures are expected to be in the 60s deg F with a bit more sunshine.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 210 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High clouds (~20000 to 25000 ft) will increase markedly tonight from the west. Even so, with a surface high centered across the southern Plains, light winds and a dry air mass, another cool night is expected with low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s (north central Oklahoma) to the mid 40s deg F (southern Oklahoma and western north Texas). Some locations in north central Oklahoma may get close to freezing. However, the abundant high clouds will prevent a perfect environment for radiational cooling. Therefore, the probability of temperatures at or below freezing is only ~25 to 30% across central Oklahoma. There are also signs of some patchy stratus tonight, but confidence on that is lower than the high clouds.

While abundant cloud cover is expected once again Saturday afternoon, the ceilings being a little higher (i.e., cirrus clouds vs. stratus clouds) should result in a little warmer weather with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the upper 60s deg F. Winds will remain light and variable with the surface high remaining in close proximity.

Even warmer weather is expected on Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s deg F as southerly winds return by afternoon. An upper-level low/trough across the southwest U.S. will result in rain as far northeast as west Texas. However, currently it looks like any appreciable rainfall will remain just to our southwest.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

The upper-level low across the southwest U.S. will eventually lift into the Southern Plains by Monday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but there is currently a ~10% chance of rain on Monday associated with this system.

Beyond Monday, warm afternoons and cool nights will continue with highs generally in the 60s and 70s and lows generally in the 40s and 50s deg F. A cold front may pass by late Thursday into Friday, but no significant cool down is expected in its wake. Even the cooler end of bias-corrected probabilistic guidance (i.e., the 10th percentile) has high temperatures only dropping into the 50s deg F, which is only slightly below normal for mid-November.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

An expansive area of low clouds/stratus continues to push into northern Oklahoma early this morning, with southward expansion to near the I-40 corridor/central Oklahoma forecast through the morning. IFR to LIFR cigs are expected to result here. Patchy fog development may also occur towards sunrise on the leading edge of thicker cloud cover.

Slow improvement back towards VFR category will occur into the mid-afternoon/early evening. Another round of predawn fog potential is evident across the region into Saturday morning, though no explicit mentions of reduced vis have been added at this update.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 56 40 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 41 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 45 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 59 38 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 56 37 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 68 46 68 45 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.