textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Conditional but potentially high-impact storm chances across northern Oklahoma this evening with severe/flooding possible.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend and the week beyond.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The primary forecast concern in the near term is the potential for both severe weather and flash flooding primarily across northern Oklahoma this evening. Although significant uncertainty exists, the conditional ceiling for severe/flood risk is higher than we have seen in several weeks.

Starting at the beginning: a complex of thunderstorms is currently trundling eastward across the Llano Estacado as of early this morning. Guidance suggests that this complex will weaken as it comes off of the Caprock. At first glance, it is a little hard to understand why that would happen. The storms are moving through a well of 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the LLJ is expected to ramp up over the second half of the night, but outflow has recently begun to accelerate, which could spell the death knell of those storms. Either way, the presence and veering of the LLJ should lead to at least sporadic convective development late tonight across western/northern Oklahoma within a warm advection regime.

After that, attention turns to later in the day. Pressure falls across southeast Colorado will work to veer winds from easterly to southeasterly and surge a theta-E tongue toward the Oklahoma/Kansas border. It remains to be seen how much convection exists during the day to stanch the forward progress of the theta-E tongue, but it is quite likely that there will be an east-west oriented warm front/outflow boundary feature to act as a focus for convection initiation.

The real key to the ceiling for the severe/flood risk this evening will be the existence and nature of the LLJ. This has been a difficult thing for mesoscale models to try and pinpoint so far, with run-to-run consistency on the HRRR and NSSL WRF falling into a bin that could best be described as "comical". However, a broad- brush average of CAM/global guidance would suggest that a reasonably backed 850 mb low-level jet will develop by early evening, particularly near I-35. If convection initiation occurs in the frontal zone/LLJ region overlap, discrete supercells would be explicitly favored. Those supercells (were they to exist) would be favored for large hail - though not giant hail, given PWATS in excess of 2 inches, as well a conditional risk of significant tornadoes. If convection initiation occurs west of the LLJ axis, supercells or clusters would be favored with a damaging wind aspect displacing the significant tornado threat.

It must also be said that regardless of convection evolution (and even if no storms occur this evening, which is a possibility - this would most likely open the window for an MCS to enter northern Oklahoma from Kansas late tonight), there will be a risk of very serious flash flooding. PWATS over 2 inches will lead to efficient rainfall processes, particularly in any supercells, where 2-3 inch per hour rates could be realized. Parts of northern Oklahoma have seen very heavy over the last week, which will exacerbate flooding issues.

Most of this near-term AFD has focused on northern Oklahoma due to the increased impact potential in the forecast in the region. However, from central Oklahoma southward, storms will also be in the forecast - especially overnight as a complex of storms moves in from the Texas panhandles. Further from the frontal boundary, shear profiles may not favor such an organized severe/flood risk. But we should not conflate "lesser" risk with "no" risk.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Fortunately, the short term forecast looks a little bit less rambunctious than much of the previous week. In large part, this is a product of the subtropical ridge deamplifying and sliding eastward to our south. This will move us out of the northwest flow regime and more into a "western ridge periphery" regime, which favors steady warming and decreased precipitation chances. It wouldn't be a surprise to get a few showers or thunderstorms on Friday afternoon/evening along any remnant boundaries, but coverage should be sporadic and the environment muted enough to prevent widespread severe/flooding issues.

On Saturday, we may even begin to see a southwesterly component to the surface wind as a potent-for-late-June trough swings by to our north. This will bring air temperatures soaring toward 100 in places that didn't see much rain recently, and heat indices soaring toward 105 elsewhere.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The main long-term story continues to be the potential for a consistent and possibly long-duration heatwave across our area. Global, ensemble, and AI-based guidance all indicate an amplification of the ridge to our east beginning on Sunday and lasting through (beyond) the end of the long-term period. Because of that, precipitation chances are going to be slim to nil during that timeframe. Not only will air temperatures and heat indices approach Heat Advisory criteria most days, but overnight lows will be little relief, sitting near 80 in most spots.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Continue to see mainly VFR conditions outside a brief period around sunrise in the north when there will be a chance of some thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity will mainly impact sites along and north of I-40 late tonight through mid- morning hours Thursday. Much of the day should be dry with a east wind becoming southerly and increasing. Some gusts of 25-30kts possible by afternoon. There will be another chance of convection Thursday evening, again mainly impacting sites along and north of I-40.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 90 74 92 78 / 30 50 10 10 Hobart OK 94 74 96 77 / 20 50 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 96 76 97 78 / 10 10 10 0 Gage OK 94 67 91 73 / 70 70 0 30 Ponca City OK 85 70 88 74 / 70 60 10 30 Durant OK 92 77 92 78 / 10 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ004>013-019-020-026.

TX...None.