textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 - Storm chances will return Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms may be possible.

- Increasing chances for widespread storms and rainfall later this week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1226 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Today's weather will remain cool, cloudy, and quiet. Global models have struggled with today's temperature forecast, so will continue to lean on hi-res guidance which better reflects the effects of cloud cover and cold air advection (mainly upper 40s and 50s).

Not a whole lot of diurnal range as temperatures drop by about 5 to 10 degrees tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1226 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Strong southerly surface flow will bring warmer temperatures (80s) and gusty winds back into the area on Tuesday. Higher uncertainty exists with temperature forecast in northwest Oklahoma due to the timing of an incoming cold front.

A dryline nudging into northwest or western Oklahoma may result in some brief elevated fire weather during the afternoon. How far north / south along our western border this feature shows up is uncertain and most models keep this feature west of us. A few more aggressive models (such as the HRRR) suggest RH's as low as 10 to 15 percent nudging into our area; however, even these more aggressive models suggest the feature will be narrow and transient. While we do have a well-defined low level thermal ridge poking into the area, cloud cover will help limit mixing.

Tuesday afternoon may see a few diurnal showers ahead of the front though capping will keep this activity limited. The better rain chances will be evening and overnight as the front pushes through the area. Modest elevated instability (~1000 joules) and ample shear (50-60 knots) will support strong to severe storms with hail as the main threat. This activity may persist into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday's weather will depend largely on where the front stalls. Expect cooler temperatures (60s) behind the front while areas south of the front remain warmer (70s). Where that front stalls will become a focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening with severe hazards possible. Currently, most guidance shows this stalling over our southeast counties, but there is some uncertainty here. Heavy rain will also be a concern along the front.

Day

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1246 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Another shortwave will be approaching the Four Corners Region Thursday with a surface low strengthening over southeast Colorado and bringing a quick return to warm southerly surface winds. Temperatures will rise back towards the 80s and dewpoints will climb back into the 60s. Warm temperatures, increased low level moisture and mid-level ascent ahead of the incoming shortwave will give way to increased chances for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening across western and into portions of central Oklahoma, along with adjacent portions of western north Texas.

The pattern aloft begins to diverge in exact solutions for Friday and into the weekend, which can alter the exact timing, strength and location for precipitation chances. However, there is medium-to-high confidence that additional showers and storms, some severe will be possible Friday and Saturday with a classic dryline setup giving way to another cold front by Saturday. Once again PWATs are forecasted to be above the climatological max through this period, so any storms that do develop will be capable of heavy rainfall. Ensemble guidance shows high probabilities for all but northwest Oklahoma to receive greater than 0.5 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days. The greatest chances for rain this week and into the weekend will be across southeast Oklahoma with a medium-to-high (40-70%) chance for greater than 2 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days. Even portions of southern into central Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas will have a low to medium (10-40%) chance for greater than 2 inches of rainfall as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Multiple bands of stratus are making for a very challenging aviation forecast today. A band (with 500-1,000 foot ceilings) along and north of I-40 has been generally retreating northward with OUN recently shifting to VFR conditions and OKC not far behind. However, second/third stratus bands are encroaching on western north Texas, southwest Oklahoma, and southern Oklahoma with generally 1,000-2,000 foot ceilings. Do expect a decaying trend in the stratus this afternoon with only PNC and SWO remaining below VFR status for most of the night. Less low-level cloud cover tomorrow with winds becoming southerly again.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 52 80 53 68 / 10 10 60 50 Hobart OK 50 82 48 68 / 10 10 60 30 Wichita Falls TX 57 85 58 74 / 0 10 40 60 Gage OK 44 80 40 66 / 0 0 40 20 Ponca City OK 46 81 49 66 / 20 20 60 50 Durant OK 59 81 63 78 / 0 0 20 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.