textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1007 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through Tuesday, with more seasonable/cooler temperatures by late next week.

- Chances for rain & storms return to portions of western and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday, and expand across more of the area by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall and strong-severe storms will be possible during this time.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Elevated fire weather will be the main concern again today as a tightening pressure gradient yields gusty winds across much of the area (especially western and northwestern Oklahoma).

Forecast fire parameters across western north Texas, western Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma are:

- RH: 25-33%, reasonable worst case: 22% (lowest out west, increasing toward SE OK)

- Wind: 18-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph (highest in NW OK)

- ERCs: 70-80th percentile (except parts of NW and North central OK, which are closer to 65th percentile)

Overall, the current RFD seems well mapped to capture the greatest fire weather threat.

Otherwise, expect another hot day with maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Some scattered cirrus will pass overhead through the day. Overnight lows will stay up in the mid to upper 60s as breezy winds keep us somewhat mixed through the night.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

It'll be breezy again on Monday, though a tad less than Sunday. The slightly decreased winds plus increased moisture from the gulf will help keep fire weather at bay.

Heat, on the other hand, is expected to continue into Monday and Tuesday with the forecasted highs in the low to mid 90s. Some scattered clouds can be expected on Monday, increasing on Tuesday. And, while winds will continue to relax, we'll still have a decent breeze on Tuesday.

Rain chances enter the forecast Tuesday afternoon as abundant gulf moisture arrives under southwest upper flow and a lead wave approaches ahead of the main upper low. Storms are expected to initiate in the panhandles and make their way east through the afternoon and into the overnight. Instability and shear will be enough to support supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds into western Oklahoma and western north Texas, with some potential for upscale growth. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs climb to near the 99th percentile.

Day

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The primary message by the middle to end of next week remains the potential for additional rainy/stormy periods and eventually a drop in temperatures towards more traditional fall-like readings.

A closed upper low and intensifying subtropical jet look to slowly progress eastward during the period. It is becoming more apparent that that primary features of interest on the synoptic scale may be embedded/weaker systems traversing the subtropical jet, as opposed to the larger polar-originating trough located near the Four Corners.

This only acts to increase uncertainty regarding timing/placement of better precipitative chance from Wednesday onward. The picture becomes even muddier when adding the arrival of a slow-moving cold front across northern portions of Oklahoma sometime on Wednesday. At least episodic rounds/areas of rain and storms are likely during the period, and those with outdoor obligations should continue to check back in as these periods of greater coverage are identified for your area(s) of interest.

Not all activity is expected to come in the form of benign fall showers, with potential for both locally heavy rainfall/flooding and strong-severe storms on Wednesday and Thursday.

Eventually, as a stronger/fast-moving upper trough digs across portions of the northern Plains/Midwest, a reinforced frontal intrusion is likely across Oklahoma and north Texas. For now, this looks to occur by Friday, with the return of near to possibly below-average temperatures by this time.

Ungar

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with some mid/high clouds. Low VFR conditions will be possible at KDUA Monday evening as lower clouds begin to move in. LLWS is expected overnight into early Monday at most TAF sites. S to SE winds will shift to the S and SW Monday remaining breezy/gusty.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 70 92 73 91 / 0 0 0 30 Wichita Falls TX 70 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 69 92 71 89 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 70 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 20 Durant OK 68 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.