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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Fire weather returns next week, with Tuesday-Thursday currently forecast to have the greatest fire risk.

- Near-record temperatures are possible on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Weak northerly winds today will help afternoon temperatures stay a few degrees cooler than Saturday's highs. Most locations will stay in the 60s, with areas further south slightly exceeding 70 F. By sunset, southerly winds will return across the area. With skies generally clearing from north to south, should be a perfect day to spend outdoors!

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SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mid-level ridging will begin to dominate the Plains starting Sunday evening through the early parts of the week. Troughing along the lee of the Rockies will promote southerly winds Monday, and the beginning of a warming trend to start the week. Overall, highs on Monday will be 10-15 degrees above what they were on Sunday, with temperatures generally in the 70s to low 80s. Monday will also feature the beginning of a multi-day stretch of afternoon fire weather concerns through the week. For more information on fire weather this week, please refer to the fire weather section below. Surface winds will be more westerly on Tuesday, so compressional warming will aid in afternoon highs that may approach record temperatures.

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LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Aside from fire weather concerns through the week (see below), much warmer than average temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with a cooler air returning Friday. Dry conditions are expected through the end of the week into the weekend, with fire weather concerns being the main concern.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Widespread stratus with MVFR ceilings is in place this morning across much of the area. Expect gradual thinning/clearing of clouds this morning, with mostly sunny skies expected by this afternoon. North winds will become southerly overnight, with a low chance for fog or low stratus development towards the end of the TAF period near KDUA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Monday will kick start the beginning of a potentially very active week of fire weather concerns. This weekend's rainfall was very beneficial for areas along and east of I-44 and south of I-40. For the rest of us, most locations received less than a half inch of rain, which shouldn't affect soil moisture much once we get into early this week. Fuels across northwest Oklahoma are of concern, especially with lack of recent rainfall. Elsewhere, it's a little more uncertain. With temperatures expected to be well- above average for a multi-day stretch, soil moisture will likely rebound back to the drier side.

For Monday, slightly veered winds will foster low RHs to push into northwestern Oklahoma, in addition to breezy winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northwestern Oklahoma. For Tuesday, a more potent mid-level wave will push across the area, with 100kt jet maxima overspreading the southern Plains by the afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to how much cloud cover there will be during the day, however, mixing some of those stronger winds down to the surface is likely to not be an issue. Gusty to potentially strong west-southwesterly winds will advect drier air across the western third of the area by the afternoon. The juxtaposition of dry air + gusty winds + volatile fuels right now looks to be north of I-40 across western and northwestern Oklahoma. A fire weather watch has been issued for these locations, with adjustments likely as details become more clear.

Almost due westerly winds will continue on Wednesday, albeit not as strong as Tuesday. The aforementioned drier air will continue to push across most of the area Wednesday. In fact, most locations across the CWA will likely see RH values in the teens by Wednesday afternoon. Widespread near critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday. RH recovery Wednesday night into Thursday will not be great, especially across northwestern Oklahoma. A pacific front will move through the area Thursday afternoon, maintaining lower RHs across much of the area by the afternoon. Winds will be gusty during this timeframe, so widespread near critical to critical (western OK) fire weather concerns are expected.

Bunker

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 66 43 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 42 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 43 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 44 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 66 42 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 43 71 51 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021.

TX...None.