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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 205 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Patchy fog possible across north central Oklahoma this morning.

- Above-normal temperatures expected through at least Wednesday.

- Cooler weather arrives Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 205 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Patchy fog is occurring once again this morning with light and variable winds, mostly clear skies, and a saturated boundary layer. Any fog should dissipate by mid-morning.

An upper-level low will move across Texas today, which will result in an increase in mid to high level clouds across western north Texas into the southern half of Oklahoma (~15,000 to 25,000 ft ceilings). Any appreciable rainfall will remain well to the south across South Texas with only a ~10% chance (or less) of rain across western north Texas.

Otherwise, warm, above-normal temperatures will continue today with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s deg F with light south to south-southwest winds.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 205 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Overnight lows tonight will be higher than recent days as southerly winds return, advecting higher dew points northward into Oklahoma and north Texas. As a result, low temperatures will range from the mid 40s (north) to the mid 50s deg F (south). With higher moisture advecting northward, patchy fog is possible once again tonight. The warmer start Tuesday morning will lead to a warmer afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80 deg F, which is ~10 deg F above normal for mid November.

By Wednesday, a cold front/northerly wind shift will move through as a shortwave trough passes by the Great Lakes region. The coldest air mass will remain to the north behind this initial wind shift with only slightly cooler weather on Wednesday across the northern half of Oklahoma (~5 to 7 deg F). In other words, above- normal temperatures are still expected on Wednesday, even after the passage of the cold front. Southern Oklahoma and western north Texas will still be quite warm (mid 70s to low 80s deg F) ahead of the cold front.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

By Thursday into Friday, a longwave trough is forecast to develop across the eastern half of the country. As a result, a stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. This will bring cooler weather for Thursday and Friday with temperatures likely closer to or even slightly below average (mid 50s to mid 60s deg F).

The cooldown will likely be brief with northwest flow aloft. This is because when the Southern Plains is in northwest flow, we are usually on the edge of downslope warming off the high terrain to the north and west. So after a cooldown, temperatures can quickly rise as that downslope-warmed air mass moves into the area from the northwest. As a result, warmer weather is expected by the weekend.

Low rain chances return by Sunday into Monday as a trough is forecast to approach the Plains from the southwest. However, there is wide variation among deterministic models and their ensemble members on the exact track of the wave (e.g., some members have a southerly track across South Texas). Therefore, the rain chances are only ~20 to 30% at this time.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Patchy fog/lowered vis remains a concern this morning, particularly near the Red River (KSPS & KLAW). Outside of at KSPS, where IFR to LIFR vis reductions may temporarily occur, ~5-7SM vis will be common towards daybreak across the region.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail by late this morning, afternoon and on Monday night, with a steady south-southwesterly wind and some areas of high clouds across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. While confidence is low, additional patchy fog is possible early on Tuesday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 53 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 71 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 55 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 45 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 54 78 58 / 0 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.