textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Patchy to dense fog/freezing fog will be possible early this morning across northcentral Oklahoma.

- The fire danger risk will be elevated this afternoon across our far west.

- Unseasonably warmer temperatures expected into next week with our next chance for rain on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Although staying dry today with unseasonably mild temperatures, there are chances for fog development across our north this morning to an elevated fire danger risk across our west during the afternoon.

High pressure at the surface will remain in place at least through the first half of this morning with light & variable winds under clear skies enhancing strong radiational cooling with temperatures across our area dropping freezing to subfreezing. There is a potential for radiational fog to develop across northcentral Oklahoma during the early through mid-morning hours. Latest surface observations showing northcentral Oklahoma is near saturation with RH values over 95%. DESI's Grand ensemble member has a 70% probability for reduced visibilities in fog below 1/2 mile in some of these areas from 3 AM through sunrise. Will have patchy to areas of fog in the forecast for the first half of this morning across northcentral Oklahoma. Should this fog become dense it could pose some roadway hazards due to both low visibilities and thin glazing on surfaces due to freezing fog. Increasing southwest winds along with solar heating should start dissipating any fog development shortly after sunrise. As far as fire weather, breezy southwest winds at 10-20 mph will be shifting northwest this afternoon behind a surface trough/weak cold front. Wind gusts by late morning mixing could be 25-30 mph. The westerly winds are expected to advect much drier low humid air from the Panhandles into our western one tier of counties which along with winds and unseasonably warmer temperatures could elevate the fire danger risk there during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Friday into Saturday our upper flow splits with a deepening Pacific trough closing and cutting off from the subtropical jet over the Baja California Peninsula. Meanwhile a colder system moving through the polar jet flow over the U.S. Great Lakes Region is expected to push a cold front across our area as early as Friday afternoon. Downstream from the Pacific trough strong ridging will continue building over the Southern Plains resulting in even warmer temperatures for Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s. One spoiler to Friday's high temperature is the aforementioned cold fronts location during the afternoon and lagging colder air. Not a strong surge of Canadian air nor deep but with the surface high way up over Winnipeg and decreasing boundary layer thicknesses there certainly will be shallow colder air coming down the Plains as our upper ridging will be weakening. As a result will see Friday night colder especially across our northern CWA. Breezy south winds gradually return by Saturday afternoon but under a weaker upper ridge the colder air may be slower exiting to the north. As a result it may be less warmer for Saturday afternoon (60s-lower 70s) yet still mild and well above normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Split upper flow persists Sunday with a warm cutoff system stalled over the Baja California Peninsula in the subtropical flow. A weak Pacific cold front pushes through on Sunday and with little cooling behind it will see mild temperatures in the 70s by afternoon. Model guidance with the stalled system advancing early next week although inconsistent to timing with a faster GFS solution lifting it across Texas on Tuesday and the slower ECMWF on Wednesday. With this warm system coming up from the south and a colder system pushing a cold front through our area Tuesday or Wednesday with increasing surface moisture, rain chances will be increasing on Tuesday & Wednesday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm (70s) early next week perhaps as much as 20 degrees above normal. A potential cold front could knock temperatures down a bit more by mid-week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Areas of fog will continue across north central Oklahoma through around 15Z. This fog is patchy with a wide range of visibility. Where the fog is locally dense, it will be freezing fog with the potential of ice deposition as the temperatures are below zero. Of the TAF sites, KPNC is most likely to have periods of locally dense fog, but there will be potential at KSWO as well.

After the fog burns off, VFR conditions are expected areawide. Winds will shift from generally westerly to northwesterly as a surface trough of low pressure moves through the area. Winds will increase late this morning through this afternoon before diminishing again around sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 44 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 69 39 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 40 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 37 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 64 35 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 43 77 41 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.