textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Hot Wednesday, then back closer to average late in the week.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week, including a marginal risk for strong to severe storms Wednesday night through Thursday night.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Heat will be the main story for Wednesday as heat indices rise into the 100 to 110 degree range. The highest heat indices will generally be near and northwest of I-44, where we have a heat advisory in place. Sunny skies and gusty south winds will accompany this heat.

A front will nudge into northwest Oklahoma this afternoon and stall. While this will bring lower dewpoints behind it (thus, lowering heat indices), the initial effect on temperature will be minimal and light winds behind the front will keep the WBGT up. Therefore, have expanded the heat advisory to include these counties.

Storms will be possible along the front this evening. Ample instability and deep layer shear will support severe hazards; the biggest question will be whether we get initiation this far west. Most CAMs keep convection in eastern Kansas, staying just east of Kay county as it shifts southward.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Additional showers and storms driven by warm air advection will be possible early Thursday morning in the vicinity of the front across northern Oklahoma. Instability and shear remain sufficient to support strong to severe storms, though strong capping will be a limiting factor.

The cold front will surge south through the day, bringing cooler temperatures and low rain chances behind it. With the extensive cloud cover and rain chances across northern Oklahoma, we've lowered temperatures from NBM guidance across the north (more in line with hi-res guidance). While most of the CAMs don't have much of a signal for robust convection, there will be ample elevated instability to support some severe risk.

While northern Oklahoma gets relief from the heat with the front on Thursday, north Texas and parts of southern Oklahoma will see heat indices rise above 100 again. There is some uncertainty with the progression of the front, but enough confidence to issue a heat advisory for a portion of this area. This may need to be expanded on later shifts.

Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday morning, largely post-frontal (but still carrying some severe risk). Temperatures on Friday should even out in the 80s.

Day

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Disturbances in northwest to zonal flow will keep us in an active pattern over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures should hover near normal. Sunday stands out a bit with lower rain chances and higher temperatures (potentially reaching heat advisory criteria again).

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected at most terminals with the exception being KDUA.

Stratus is expected to develop late tonight across southeast Oklahoma, which is expected to impact KDUA with MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Southerly winds will continue with a strengthening low-level jet (LLJ), resulting in low level wind shear (LLWS) tonight. Winds will increase by mid to late tomorrow morning and become gusty from the south. A weak wind shift will shift the winds to the northeast at KWWR.

There is a low chance of storms across northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon/early evening, but the chance is too low to include in the TAFs.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 98 75 86 66 / 0 0 40 80 Hobart OK 103 75 92 66 / 0 0 30 70 Wichita Falls TX 100 76 100 70 / 0 0 10 70 Gage OK 104 71 79 62 / 0 0 20 40 Ponca City OK 98 72 77 64 / 10 30 70 40 Durant OK 92 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>025-027-033>039-044-045.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ044-045-050.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ084>090.