textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Remaining unseasonably hot through Tuesday, with cooler/more "fall-like" temperatures later in the week and weekend.

- An active weather pattern arrives on Tuesday and continues through at least Thursday. Potential for strong-severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding exists.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Our recent 8-day period of hot, dry and low-impact weather will draw to a close today. Early morning water vapor imagery captures a high-amplitude upper trough, along with several embedded disturbances, located upstream across the southwestern corner of the CONUS. While this pattern will eventually yield increased weather impact/concern for us, it'll remain just out of reach today.

We will continue to see afternoon temperatures warm to around 90 degrees across the region with an occasionally gusty (up to 30-35 mph) southwesterly wind.

Despite another afternoon of hot and windy conditions, continued poleward flux of richer moisture across the area will prevent relative humidity from falling much below ~35-45%, precluding greater fire weather concern. Still be mindful if you plan activity with open flame during the peak windy period today.

While nearly all locations will remain dry today, there is conditional/very low (10%) potential for a thunderstorm or two later this evening across far northwestern Oklahoma. With minimal synoptic support (i.e., delayed ascent/rising heights), it is likely that the brunt of storm activity remains confined closer to the surface trough axis across the western/central Texas Panhandle.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

An active period, featuring potential for multiple hazards, arrives by Tuesday afternoon and continues for the better part of the following 48 hours. A strengthening/anticyclonically curved subtropical jet and phasing upper trough still look poised to crawl eastward during the period. In addition, both hi-res and global computer model guidance depicts potential for the passage of multiple lead/embedded upper systems, each with potential to instigate periods of rain and thunderstorms across the area.

The first such system looks to move eastward across the Southern High Plains on Tuesday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to result, focused from the Texas Panhandle into northern and western Oklahoma and western-north Texas. An unseasonably warm and moist boundary layer coupled with increasing mid-level wind fields will likely yield at least a few strong-severe thunderstorms on Tuesday evening across the aforementioned areas. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the most common severe hazard, though large hail cannot be discounted if more cellular structures emerge and are maintained. The risk for a tornado or two is less certain (likely), though will be closely monitored over coming updates given expectation for a modest increase in low-level flow towards sunset.

A renewed - or possibly concurrent - round of rain and storms is likely overnight into Wednesday morning, originating across the Texas Panhandle and spreading northeastward into western and northern Oklahoma. Once again, some limited strong-severe storm risk and increasing concern for locally heavy rainfall is currently forecast by this time.

Wednesday already has the hallmarks of being a complicated (and potentially high-impact for some) forecast scenario across the region. Aforementioned upper features will continue their slow approach, with a surface front (possibly convectively-enhanced) oozing southward across portions of northern and central Oklahoma throughout the morning.

Showers and storms may be ongoing in pockets of the forecast area for much of the day, evening and night, though some folks may see dry intervals during this time. Overall coverage may tend to increase by Wednesday evening, as the primary upper trough begins to move into the lee of the Rockies.

The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding looks to escalate as we roll on into Wednesday evening and night. Several key indicators, including well above-normal (record-setting) preciptable water magnitudes for mid-October, potential for widespread convection and ascent atop a stalled/slow-moving surface boundary, all point to the potential for a corridor of locally significant flooding potential, though exactly where remains uncertain. At present, Interstate 44 serves as a good centerline for greatest heavy rainfall risk into Thursday.

Some limited strong-severe thunderstorm potential is also likely, primarily on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and along and south of the aforementioned surface boundary. Damaging wind gusts and hail look to be the main hazards, though some (low) risk for a tornado or two may materialize with deeper updrafts anchored in/near the frontal zone.

We strongly recommend that you continue to check back with us as we go throughout the early portions of the week, as subtle differences in the strength/timing/position of both large and small scale features may yield big changes to impacts for your local area!

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The passage of a rather notable fall front is beginning to focus on Thursday, as the midweek system begins to accelerate to the northeast across the Plains. Rain and embedded thunder/lightning potential may continue through much of the day on Thursday, slowly abating from north-to-south after nightfall. It is likely that our current forecast highs on Thursday continue to tumble (esp. across the northern one-half of Oklahoma) as a more refined frontal timing, and degree of post-frontal rain and clouds, comes into clearer view.

Things turn drier and begin to feel more "classically fall" by Friday into the weekend, with daytime temperatures in the 60s becoming more probable.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through most of the period. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into southeastern Oklahoma between 09-12Z Tuesday morning. Otherwise, gusty south-southwesterly winds will prevail through Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 88 73 89 72 / 0 0 20 40 Hobart OK 90 72 91 71 / 0 0 20 70 Wichita Falls TX 91 73 92 74 / 0 0 10 30 Gage OK 92 70 89 65 / 10 10 40 60 Ponca City OK 90 72 90 69 / 0 0 20 70 Durant OK 89 73 90 74 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.