textproduct: Norman

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Numerous showers have developed across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this morning within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air advection. The exception has been across far west central Oklahoma.

These showers are producing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet/ice pellets. These showers are not producing snow because the activity is too shallow with the saturated layer beneath the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ), which is the layer in the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12 to -18 deg C. Precipitation amounts reaching the surface have generally been a trace to a few hundredths given the light echoes and the dry boundary layer/low-levels (i.e., some of the precipitation is evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface).

Where temperatures are above freezing (generally southeast of I-44), the precipitation types are rain and sleet. Even though surface temperatures are above freezing, the sleet/ice pellets develop by water droplets freezing before reaching the surface. Near the I-44 corridor, it'll be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet (i.e., freezing rain where surface temperatures are below freezing). The good news is this is not an environment that is favorable for the development of freezing drizzle given the dry low-levels. Instead, the scenario is (convective) showers. The signal among the convective-allowing models indicate this as well with a cellular structure in the precipitation. Even with the absence of freezing drizzle, there is the potential for localized slick spots on elevated surfaces where light freezing rain occurs.

Across northern Oklahoma, areas of light snow will develop with ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The track of the shortwave trough is unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with the highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture is limited with the system. There is a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall accumulation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Therefore, a trace to only light accumulations are generally expected

The system will depart this afternoon with most locations expected to rise above freezing.

Mahale

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Numerous showers have developed across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this morning within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air advection. The exception has been across far west central Oklahoma.

These showers are producing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet/ice pellets. These showers are not producing snow because the activity is too shallow with the saturated layer beneath the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ), which is the layer in the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12 to -18 deg C. Precipitation amounts reaching the surface have generally been a trace to a few hundredths given the light echoes and the dry boundary layer/low-levels (i.e., some of the precipitation is evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface).

Where temperatures are above freezing (generally southeast of I-44), the precipitation types are rain and sleet. Even though surface temperatures are above freezing, the sleet/ice pellets develop by water droplets freezing before reaching the surface. Near the I-44 corridor, it'll be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet (i.e., freezing rain where surface temperatures are below freezing). The good news is this is not an environment that is favorable for the development of freezing drizzle given the dry low-levels. Instead, the scenario is (convective) showers. The signal among the convective-allowing models indicate this as well with a cellular structure in the precipitation. Even with the absence of freezing drizzle, there is the potential for localized slick spots on elevated surfaces where light freezing rain occurs.

Across northern Oklahoma, areas of light snow will develop with ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The track of the shortwave trough is unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with the highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture is limited with the system. There is a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall accumulation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Therefore, a trace to only light accumulations are generally expected

The system will depart this afternoon with most locations expected to rise above freezing.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday as mid-level heights rise with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

The warming trend will be brief as the the next cold front will move through during the day Wednesday as a mid/upper-level trough embedded in the polar jet stream amplifies across the Great Lakes region. The amplifying trough will advance another cold front southward across the Plains with a ~1036 mb surface high in its wake. Similar to the previous cold front, the trajectory of this air mass will be from Canada. Falling temperatures are likely northwest of I-44 Wednesday afternoon with breezy northerly winds.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The cold front that moved through Wednesday will return us to below-normal temperatures on Thursday with highs likely in the 30s and 40s deg F.

A wave in the subtropical jet stream may provide enough synoptic- scale ascent for the chance for precipitation Thursday into Thursday. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the strength of the wave and amount of precipitation. For example, the latest deterministic guidance shears out/weakens the wave substantially--which would result in a drier forecast. If there is precipitation, there is the potential for a wintry mix (depending on temperature profiles) across parts of the area. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall northwest of I-44. The chance of 1" of snowfall is 10 to 20% across northwest into north central Oklahoma.

By Friday and Saturday, temperatures are expected to moderate with a return to southerly winds. Another cold front is forecast to move through late Saturday into Sunday, but the air mass behind this front does not appear to be as cold as the previous two with only a glancing blow for the Southern Plains.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Mainly VFR conditions , with some MVFR ceilings, are expected through the period. Wintry precipitation is expected this morning across central Oklahoma and portions of north central Oklahoma. Light snow may impact north central Oklahoma later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will remain light today, shifting from the south to the north by the afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings are possible across southern Oklahoma today as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 37 21 50 34 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 43 19 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 44 23 55 39 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 38 19 54 26 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 34 18 49 28 / 30 0 0 0 Durant OK 41 25 50 33 / 30 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ017>020-023>030.

TX...None.