textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions expected through Tuesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions may return Monday afternoon across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas.

- Next chance of rain around Wednesday/Thursday of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The few showers early this evening have dissipated. This activity was associated with a shortwave moving southeast through the southern Plains into the lower MS valley. As this wave moves continues to move southeast, cooler surface high will settle south in its wake with some slightly cooler air. This will be most noticeable across central into north central and northeast Oklahoma where temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees cooler when compared to yesterdays high temperatures. Skies are expected to clear in the wake of the shortwave trough with mostly sunny conditions expected during the day today.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Surface high shifts east tonight with south winds returning from west to east. Still anticipate lows dropping into the 30s, but mainly above freezing. These south winds will increase during the day Sunday with gusts over 30 mph likely across the west by afternoon as we mix into stronger winds off the surface. This will also bring warmer air into the area with temperatures pushing 70 degrees Sunday afternoon across the west. Extensive high clouds will also overspread the area, which should aid in keeping any fire weather concerns in check, but pockets of elevated conditions may develop across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Deep southwest/west flow will continue bring much warmer air into the area Monday. 850MB temperatures by Monday afternoon are expected to be near 18 degrees Celsius across western north Texas. Highs Monday afternoon will be well into the 70s with a few lower 80s possible in the southwest.

Meanwhile, weak surface trough will work into western sections of Oklahoma bringing drier air into the western part of the state. Although currently, models are keeping deeper mixing at bay due to widespread cloud cover, if deeper mixing does occur, closer to 850MB, then winds will be quite a bit stronger than currently shown in the forecast. Even with the current lower wind speeds, given afternoon temperatures some 25 degrees above normal and RH values across the west dropping below 20%, an area of elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated Monday afternoon.

Very warm and dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week before storm system across the southwest CONUS ejects east into the Plains. Although models are similar with timing they differ significantly with regards to precip chances across the area with the initial lead wave Wednesday night into Thursday. While the GFS wants to pull the lead wave further north across Oklahoma and Kansas with more widespread rainfall, the ECMWF remain further south with precip confined to south-central and southeast Oklahoma, with no rainfall across the western half of the area. While both models bring a substantial dry slot overhead as the main upper trough moves across Friday. As previously stated last night, persistence would say drier is the way to lean and the latest NBM numbers have shifted the higher precip chances slightly further east, and will not make any changes to NBM at this time and will wait and see how things evolve for late in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Most of the mid and high clouds have moved east of the area along with a shortwave trough. Low clouds are developing southward near DUA. Some of this cloud cover may bring MVFR ceiling to DUA through about 15-16Z. Another area of clouds is developing slowing southward across southern Kansas and may reach PNC after 13-14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with a northerly wind. The wind will become light and variable tonight with an increase in high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 53 34 60 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 59 32 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 34 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 60 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 52 31 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 59 34 62 45 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.