textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Chances for showers and storms focused across western OK and western north TX today into Friday, expanding east into the weekend.

- More chances for rain next Tuesday/Wednesday with a cold front.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week, but not as hot as recent weeks.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage has decreased as of early this morning, with the bulk of activity now back across the panhandles into NM. Moist southerly flow is expected to continue through the day today on the western periphery of ridging centered across TX into eastern OK. Daytime heating is forecast to help spark redevelopment of showers and storms this afternoon across western portions of the area. As moisture continues to increase and PWATS climb higher (1.75-2.0"), the stronger storm cores will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, with the greatest risk for this across northwest OK where WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. Severe weather does not appear likely today given modest instability and weak shear profiles, but some gusty winds will be possible in the vicinity of the stronger storms. Showers and storms will likely continue into tonight with moisture advection being maintained, with the highest chances again focused across western OK.

Temperatures this afternoon will be hot once again across the bulk of the area with highs in the low to mid 90s for all but northwest OK where greater clouds/rain coverage will keep highs in the mid 80s this afternoon.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Troughing to our west will begin to move eastward Friday into Saturday as the upper ridge weakens over the area. This will help bring shower and storm chances further east across more of the region, especially by Saturday. However, mid-level flow will veer and begin to bring some drier air in from the west with the trough also beginning to weaken as it ejects into the central Plains. This will likely begin to limit shower and storm coverage with time, with chances capped at 50-60% across central OK and less than that for southern parts of the area as we head into Saturday afternoon.

Even with the upper ridge weakening, veered mid-level flow will bring downslope-warmed mid level temperatures into the region, helping keep highs well above normal, especially on Saturday with clouds becoming more scattered.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A drying trend is expected Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds over the area and the trough moves further to the east. No real airmass change is expected with highs continuing to be well above normal across the region into early next week. Another potentially stronger trough is forecast to take shape over the southwest US and head our direction by next Tuesday/Wednesday which will bring our next chance of rain to the area. How much rain we see and the exact timing of the trough remain uncertain at this time, with the potential injection of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific likely playing a key role in rainfall amounts. If everything comes together this system has the potential to be our best shot at widespread appreciable rainfall our area has seen in many weeks. That said, current NBM percentiles for OKC rain totals show wide variability, ranging from only 0.05" at the 25th percentile to over 2 inches at the 75th percentile. Needless to say, uncertainty is high. At least a brief cooldown is also in the cards in the wake of this system, with highs forecast to return to near average for this time of year by next Wednesday.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers are drifting north across western Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread later today and especially tonight affecting KCSM and KWWR. MVFR ceilings with the showers and storms are expected late tonight, especially at KWWR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 91 70 89 70 / 0 10 30 40 Hobart OK 91 69 88 68 / 40 40 50 60 Wichita Falls TX 95 70 94 69 / 20 10 20 30 Gage OK 84 65 80 63 / 60 80 60 70 Ponca City OK 87 68 83 67 / 10 10 50 40 Durant OK 94 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.