textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Severe weather potential returns Tuesday.

- Several days of elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma.

- Strong front Wednesday will bring a possible light freeze to parts of the area by Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1227 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Strong cold front moved across the area overnight with quite a bit colder airmass in its wake. Much of the area outside of southern and southeastern Oklahoma will struggle to climb out of the 50s this afternoon. The breezy north winds will also gradually decrease as we go through the afternoon hours.

Otherwise, some lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across far southern and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon and into this evening. No severe weather is anticipated with this activity.

Cold surface high will settle south over the area tonight with clearing skies. This, along with drier air, will allow temperatures to fall to near freezing along and north of I-44 tonight. Some patchy frost may also occur. Where clouds linger a bit longer across the southeast, temperatures will remain a bit milder, in the lower 40s.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1227 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Surface high shifts east Sunday with south winds returning, becoming quite gusty across the west. This will lead to a quick warm up under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm back into the 70s, perhaps approaching 80 degrees across the west. This dry return flow will also lead to an area of elevated fire weather across far western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.

This quick increase in winds will be due to a minor, but amplifying shortwave coming out of the the High Plains into the southern Plains Sunday and Sunday night and associated developing surface low. As this shortwave moves across the area and some waa develops across the Arklatex region, sufficient moisture may remain in place for a few showers and thunderstorms to occur from late Sunday night into Monday across the southeast before quickly shifting east of the area. Models are showing MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by Monday morning across the southeast, so a few strong to perhaps severe storms can not be ruled out.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 115 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Rain chances ramp up on Tuesday as an upper low is forecast to lift through the southern plains. With a well established warm moist air mass in place, a dryline pushing eastward Tuesday afternoon and a cold front surging south Tuesday night, this period will be one to watch for severe weather potential.

Cooler temperatures will fill in behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, and rain chances will drop off as well. Once the upper low shifts eastward, we'll enter a dry period late next week.

Day

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Showers have remained just southeast of DUA and thus out of our area this evening. Ceilings have remained VFR though at times in the last couple of hours have seen scattered 1,500 foot cloud cover in Bryan/Atoka Counties, which will continue to be possible over the next couple of hours. After that, light winds and VFR/mostly clear skies will prevail through the night. Southwest winds increase to around 10 knots in the daytime tomorrow.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 38 72 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 34 73 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 38 73 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 33 76 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 33 71 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 42 72 54 80 / 20 0 10 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.