textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 504 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Fire weather conditions return this week with Tuesday through Thursday having the greatest fire weather risk.

- Near-record temperatures are possible on Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances return towards the end of the week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Surface winds early this morning are expected to be weak across southern Oklahoma. Clear skies will allow for sufficient radiational cooling, so there is a chance for patchy fog to develop along the Red River in far southeastern Oklahoma.

Southerly surface winds will quickly rebound today as troughing along the lee of the Rockies increases. Warmer weather will also return across the area today with afternoon temperatures ranging from 15-20 F above normal. Generally, highs will be in the 70s (east) to the low 80s (west). Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon. For more information, see fire weather discussion below.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fire weather concerns will continue through the end of the week. For more information, please see the fire weather section.

Mid- to high-level clouds will begin to move in from the west Monday night into Tuesday, limiting overnight cooling. Overnight lows will be 20-25 degrees above average, with some locations potentially reaching warm low temperature records. A more potent mid-level wave will help aid in strong winds across the entire area, with potentially strong winds across western Oklahoma. Even with the cloud cover expected, near-record temperatures are expected Tuesday afternoon.

Surface winds will weaken some as the mid-level wave continues to push eastward. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler for most of us, and 5-10 degrees cooler out west.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday for areas to the north as a Pacific front starts to make its way across the area. This boundary will kick off much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Precipitation chances will return early Friday morning and will continue into Sunday morning. As of right now, precipitation amounts are expected to be light.

Bunker

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites through the period, with the exception being at KDUA where patchy fog could lead to occasional drops towards MVFR or IFR conditions. Winds will become gustier from the south today and will remain elevated for much of tonight as high clouds also increase from the west late.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fire weather will be our primary hazard Monday through Thursday of the upcoming week. The worst conditions are expected on Tuesday across northwest/west central Oklahoma. However, Wednesday and Thursday will have fire weather conditions across most of the area. If wind speeds are stronger on either Wednesday or Thursday, critical fire weather conditions could occur. Fuels will be more receptive to fires throughout the week, as heat and poor RH recovery are expected. Here's the day-by-day specifics:

For Monday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across northwest Oklahoma. Veered low-level flow will advect drier air into northwest Oklahoma, which will result in relative humidity falling near to 20%. This will combine with breezy south to southwest winds to result in elevated fire weather conditions. Farther to the east, across central Oklahoma, relative humidity will be higher, which should temper the fire weather risk. However, breezy winds may result in brief periods of elevated fire weather conditions.

For Tuesday, critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions are likely across northwest into west central Oklahoma. An intense shortwave trough, ~105 knots at 500 mb, will lift into the Southern Plains in tandem with the eastward expansion of a low- level thermal ridge. Due to the low-level thermal ridge, afternoon temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s deg F with near record warmth expected (~20 to 25 deg F above-normal). The dryline will advance eastward by the afternoon as a surface low accelerates eastward across the Plains, allowing relative humidity values to fall to around 15% across western Oklahoma into portions of western north Texas. Vertical mixing into strong winds aloft (~50 knots at 850 mb) will result in wind gusts at least to 50 mph across northwest Oklahoma behind the dryline. The strong winds and low relative humidity values will result in at least critical fire weather conditions with the potential for locally extreme conditions.

One mitigating factor for Tuesday is there will likely be dense cirrus (forecast soundings indicate ~15,000 ft deep) that would limit vertical mixing and the heating of fine fuels due to less solar radiation. If there is no dense cirrus, wind gusts could easily reach 60+ mph in northwest/west central Oklahoma owing to ~70 knot winds at 700 mb. Nevertheless, Tuesday has the potential to be a significant fire day across northwest into west central Oklahoma (especially in areas that did not receive appreciable rainfall).

For Wednesday, elevated to near-critical fire conditions are expected across much of the area. The dry air will continue to advance eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface low lifts to the northeast. While wind speeds will be lighter on Wednesday due the departing shortwave trough, moderate mid to low- level flow will persist across the Southern Plains in its wake (~40 knots at 700 mb and ~25 knots at 850 mb). Therefore, while the magnitude of the fire weather risk will be lower than Tuesday due to weaker winds, a larger part of the area will see fire weather conditions on Wednesday due to humidity values below 20% across most of the area (the exception being southeast Oklahoma).

For Thursday, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across much of the area. Weather conditions on Thursday afternoon look to be similar to Wednesday afternoon with dry air persisting across the area due to veered, westerly winds. The low relative humidity (below 20% across most of the area) will combine with breezy winds to result in at least elevated fire weather conditions with at least some near-critical conditions likely.

As noted above, Wednesday and Thursday will have to be watched carefully as the fuels will become more receptive to fires given the continued drying of fuels throughout the week.

Mahale/Bunker

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 55 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 53 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 56 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 79 53 81 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 53 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 70 52 73 54 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...None.