textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Severe thunderstorms possible through the afternoon/evening/night primarily along I-44.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday morning with an increasing flash flood risk.

- Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A mid-level trough will move across the Four Corners vicinity today, with height falls expected across the southern Plains. This trough will lift into Colorado by 00Z Thursday, which will help surface cyclogenesis across the OX/TX Panhandle vicinity.

Broad isentropic ascent will help aid in continuous showers and thunderstorm development through the morning hours across much of the area. A very moist airmass will remain in place through Wednesday, which will foster very efficient rainfall processes. Given the expected widespread coverage of storms Wednesday, flooding risk will ramp up starting Wednesday morning. In fact, OUN's 00Z sounding had 2.05 inches of precipitable water (PWAT), which was a daily record. These record-breaking PWAT values will continue to overspread the entire area today. The overall severe risk during the morning seems to be a little bit uncertain at this time. A few stronger storms may produce marginally severe hail and strong winds, and cannot rule out a tornado, especially with the decaying low-level jet early in the morning.

A weak cold front will move in from the north and will be situated somewhere in northern Oklahoma by the afternoon. This boundary will be the focal point for severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop along the boundary will have the potential to produce all hazards.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Any ongoing convection Wednesday evening may see an increase in intensity as the LLJ ramps up after sunset, especially any line segments or supercells. Tornado risk will also increase Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as an increasing LLJ will modify the low-level shear. The flooding risk will continue to increase during the overnight hours, especially if widespread convection continues through much of the day Wednesday. 00Z CAM guidance would suggest a final line of storms will move through the area late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. There will be a window between 03-09Z where the strengthening LLJ will favor circulations within this line of storms, if this line can materialize.

Through Thursday morning, 4-6 inches of rainfall (with locally higher amounts) will likely be seen across a narrow corridor. Where that corridor sets up will depend on coverage/duration of storms through Wednesday, and if a linear convective system can move in late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Nevertheless, with such anomalously high PWATs, stronger storms will produce heavy rainfall very quickly. If you encounter flooded roads, especially at night, it will be vital that you turn around so you don't drown!

Rain/thunderstorm chances will shift southward through the day Thursday as a stronger synoptic cold front pushes through the area. This frontal boundary will bring a significant cool down through the end of the week and into the weekend. In fact, the strong cold air advection will likely keep high temperatures below 60F across most of the area on Friday.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Winds will try to rebound to the south by the afternoon on Saturday, so highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than on Friday, especially with sunny skies expected. Dry conditions and a warming trend into the 70s and 80s are expected through Tuesday as increasing mid-level heights overspreads the southern Plains.

Bunker

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity across western Oklahoma will be increasing eastward impacting all of our terminals except for KDUA in southeast Oklahoma through the entire forecast period. Terminals KDUA has a 30% chance for storms after 00Z. Terminals could degrade to at least MVFR or down to an IFR category with storm activity passing over with some reduction in ceilings but mostly visibilities in to heavy rain. A cold front nearly stalled along the Kansas/Oklahoma state line may push into northern Oklahoma between 06-12Z shifting winds out of the north behind it. However, surface winds will likely be more chaotic/variable in direction and gusty across most of our terminals due to outflow boundaries which will likely form due to the storm activity. There is a low-level jet increasing out of the south through 12Z which may impact terminals east of the storm activity at that time mainly east and south of the I-44 corridor where non-convective low-level wind shear is possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 83 68 80 49 / 100 90 90 50 Hobart OK 83 66 79 50 / 90 100 90 30 Wichita Falls TX 93 70 86 54 / 50 70 90 70 Gage OK 76 59 74 43 / 90 90 20 10 Ponca City OK 79 65 79 47 / 100 100 90 20 Durant OK 93 70 89 58 / 20 20 20 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday afternoon for OKZ005>029-033>038.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday afternoon for TXZ083>085-087-088.