textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Severe weather potential returns today, with a slight risk for most of the area and an enhanced risk across southwest portions of the area.

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma mid to late week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Warm air advection showers will be scattered this morning, before increasing in coverage this afternoon ahead of a closed low moving closer to the southern Plains. As daytime heating increases, showers may become more convective in nature. Most of this activity is expected to remain elevated, with small hail being the primary hazard. Another round of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon off the dryline in the Texas Panhandle down into west central Texas. Initial storms will have the potential for all hazards, especially across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. As the aforementioned low moves closer to the area, storm coverage is expected to increase as storms will grow upscale into a line. Main hazards along this line will be embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

The main uncertainty with this line of storms is how far north the coverage will be. Given the track of the mid-level system, it appears that locations south of I-40 have the best chance at seeing storms this afternoon into the overnight hours. That isn't to say that locations north of I-40 won't see storms, it just means there is greater uncertainty with storm development.

With poor overnight recovery and winds remaining out of the southwest, there are elevated fire weather concerns across portions of northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. RHs in this area are expected to get back down into the teens, with breezy conditions.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A strong frontal boundary will make its way through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop along this boundary, but the overall potential is lower with this front as instability will scour out before its arrival. Behind the front, we will have a much cooler and drier airmass in place.

Winds on Wednesday will be quite gusty, with wind speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, especially across the western half of the area. Again, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns will exist across much of the area Wednesday, with the primary driver being the gusty winds. Closer to normal temperatures are expected on both Wednesday and Thursday, even with the return of southerly winds on Thursday. Dry return flow on Thursday will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions again on Thursday afternoon across the western third of the area.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week into the weekend. Friday and Saturday will feature a warming trend before another strong cold front early Sunday morning. Behind this frontal boundary, temperatures will drop to near normal sunday, and below normal on Monday. Each day will feature at least elevated fire weather conditions, with Sunday looking like the biggest fire weather day in the long term.

Bunker

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Skies remain VFR across the area so far tonight. After midnight, stratus is expected to reach northward through DUA and drop skies to MVFR/potentially IFR. The northwestern extent of this deck is in question, but will likely reach somewhere around a line extending from just southeast of SPS to just east of PNC. Wind shear tonight looks to be confined to northern and western Oklahoma. Shower/storm chances look to hold off for most of the daytime, but will increase late afternoon out west and spread eastward during the evening. Best chance for storms/reduction in ceiling/visibility will be in western north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 85 55 65 36 / 50 60 10 0 Hobart OK 87 50 67 34 / 50 50 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 86 55 71 37 / 60 70 10 0 Gage OK 86 44 61 31 / 20 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 87 50 62 32 / 40 50 20 0 Durant OK 80 61 75 41 / 50 90 50 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.