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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 - Areas of dense fog across western into central Oklahoma this morning; Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM.

- Potentially significant round of severe thunderstorms across western into central Oklahoma and portions of western-north Texas Thursday evening to night.

- Additional potential for severe weather on Friday and again by next Tuesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible across western Oklahoma/western-north Texas on Friday afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1245 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An impactful weather day is expected on Thursday, especially by this evening and tonight, with potential for significant severe weather.

The early morning period will remain dominated by scattered precipitation cores near and north of a slowly transitioning surface front and areas of stratus/dense fog further to its north and west. Concerning the latter, most persistent dense fog (visibility 1/4-mile or less) is expected across western and west-central Oklahoma, where a Dense Fog Advisory will continue through 9 AM this morning. Locally dense fog may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor towards daybreak this morning, though the potential for scattered precipitation here raises uncertainty on longevity of this threat.

Widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms, a few with potential to produce small hail, will continue through much of the morning into mid-afternoon across central and eastern Oklahoma. By the mid-evening, attention will turn towards potential for scattered intense thunderstorm development across the central/eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma/western-north Texas, as a leading impulse begins to overspread this region.

The progged mesoscale environment is quite impressive for severe weather, with all hazards (hail/winds/tornadoes) possible. This will include potential for very large hail, given steep (>7.5 C/km) low- level lapse rates, high cloud-layer wind shear and a supercell storm mode. A few strong tornadoes will also be possible during the mid to late evening given >250 m2/s2 of storm-relative helicity/enlarged wind profiles in the lowest 1-2 km.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1245 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

THURSDAY NIGHT: Scattered intense thunderstorms across the eastern Texas Panhandle/far western fringes of the forecast area will likely congeal and spread eastward with time into Thursday night-early Friday morning, posing at least some severe weather risk. While the hail risk will likely continue throughout the night, the potential for surface-based hazards (damaging winds/a few tornadoes) will be dependent on the degree of offsetting moistening/warming in the boundary layer, with a majority of CAMs showing this potential as far east as the ~I-35 corridor. This will be something to closely watch as we approach the event this evening. Activity should clear into southern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma after 1-3 AM Friday.

FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT: Another impactful weather day, with potential for both intense severe weather (central/east) and fire weather (far west). A stronger upper trough will eject out into the Central Plains through the day, with a dryline mixing eastward into the afternoon and potential for a surging cold front to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border towards the early evening.

While much of the day (prior to ~2-3 PM) is expected to be dry, with low-medium potential for a few scattered light rain showers, development of scattered severe thunderstorms becomes more likely into the early evening. Once again, all hazards (damaging winds/large to very large hail and tornadoes) will be in play with severe thunderstorms during the evening. This looks to be one of those quintessential days where not everyone will see a thunderstorm prior to sunset, but those who do will likely experience severe weather.

A better chance for more widespread thunderstorms will spread from north-to-south into the late evening, as a the aforementioned cold front sweeps across the area. We still expect some severe weather concern with this activity, though the undercutting nature of the frontal interface will limit the tornadic concern.

Saturday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms will shift southward towards the Red River, as the previous weather system departs to the east and a surface front pushes south of the Red River. A cool day is expected otherwise, with expectation of lingering clouds and afternoon temperatures in the 50s.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Sunday into Monday should trend back towards mainly dry weather with seasonable temperatures (60s to 70s). Precipitation chances will begin to increase into Monday evening, initially across the Red River Valley, as a previously closed upper low across the Baja Peninsula begins to open up and meander eastward. Tuesday is looking rainy, especially in areas near and east of Interstate 44. With a large warm sector appearing to be in place ahead of this approaching system, severe weather chances are evident on Tuesday. Details on timing, areas and potential hazards are a bit murky, so make sure to check back for future updates.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread and persistent stratus and areas of fog will lead to significantly deteriorated category across the area on Thursday. Improvement should occur from south-to-north into the late afternoon and evening, with KPNC/KWWR/KSWO possibly remaining below VFR category for much of the period.

Scattered intense thunderstorm activity is expected to move from the Texas Panhandle into western, northern and parts of central Oklahoma after 00-01 UTC/Friday. Expect a period of lowered category (cig/vis) and gusty and erratic winds at impacted terminals.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 61 78 43 / 20 60 50 30 Hobart OK 73 57 80 40 / 60 70 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 80 62 84 48 / 40 50 50 30 Gage OK 64 53 76 33 / 50 50 10 0 Ponca City OK 65 59 76 38 / 20 70 50 40 Durant OK 77 62 77 53 / 70 20 60 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>006- 009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>035.

TX...None.