textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- An isolated strong storm may be possible this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Gusty wind and small hail would be the primary hazards.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through next weekend across portions of the area. Strong storms may be possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Today will feature similar weather as yesterday with scattered to broken clouds giving way to ample sunshine and temperatures warming into the 80s. The upper low will continue to spin over eastern Texas today with increasing shower and storm chances in the vicinity of the circulation. Weak south southeast surface winds will keep ample low-level moisture across Oklahoma and north Texas with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Similar to yesterday, temperatures will warm and give way to an uncapped and weakly unstable environment. MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg will support a few isolated updrafts across far southern Oklahoma into adjacent western north Texas. Bulk shear will continue to be very weak (<25 knots), so updraft lifespans may be short lived and/or pulse up and down. A storm or two could become strong with gusty winds and small hail as the primary hazards. These afternoon storm chances will decrease with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The upper low will begin to eject northward Monday night into Tuesday as the next upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. An embedded shortwave on the southeast periphery of the upper low will swing into the southern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. The subtropical jet will bring increasing moisture aloft to the High Plains and into the Southern Plains Tuesday with increasing scattered shower and storm chances through the day, especially across West Texas. Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible during the day Tuesday across portions of eastern into central Oklahoma with the vacating upper low that was over Texas. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds and small hail Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday will remain consistent to the last few days with highs in the 80s.

The shortwave aloft will continue to rotate around the eastern periphery of the upper low and bring increasing lift into the Southern Plains, which will help to drive ongoing storms in the High Plains eastward into Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday night. These storms may grow upscale into an MCS where some of the updrafts could become strong to severe with hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary hazards. As storms push eastward, the severe threat will lower but a few strong updrafts may persist overnight.

Rain and storm chances will continue Wednesday as the shortwave continues to slowly lift northward towards Kansas. Some strong storms cannot be ruled out on Wednesday. With increased cloud cover and ongoing rain/storms, temperatures may be slightly cooler and below normal on Wednesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

In the wake of the shortwave, there may be brief ridging that could bring a potential decrease/lull in precipitation chances towards the end of the week, especially across western portions of the forecast area. Southerly surface winds may also make a return with increasing temperatures back into the 90s across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. At the same time, the upper closed low over Nevada will become a negatively tilted trough that ejects northward towards the northern Rockies. A shortwave following in behind the low over Baja Cali this weekend will bring a return to the southwesterly flow aloft and moisture with the subtropical jet. Thus, several days of rain and storm chances may once again return by next weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is some patchy fog across portions of the area, but confidence in affecting any one TAF site is low at this time. There is a very low chance for a few thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma this afternoon. Light southeast winds are expected through tonight and into tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 85 63 83 64 / 10 10 20 60 Hobart OK 87 62 83 62 / 0 0 30 90 Wichita Falls TX 86 63 84 63 / 20 10 30 90 Gage OK 88 60 83 59 / 0 0 30 70 Ponca City OK 85 61 83 63 / 0 0 20 10 Durant OK 85 66 84 67 / 20 10 20 70

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.