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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 156 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
- Hot temperatures continue into the week with triple digit heat and at least a moderate heat risk.
- Elevated to near-critical fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma through Monday.
NEAR TERM
(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
As has been a recurring theme... it's hot. This morning we expanded the Heat Advisory to cover the entire forecast area. Heat index values are already triple digits almost everywhere, and are 105 or higher in many areas across the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area.
There have been some showers/storms across northeast Texas this morning and early afternoon. There is a very low (<20 percent) chance of precipitation building into far southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon.
Skies will generally be clear this evening. Overnight lows are expected to be new or slightly higher than this morning's lows.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Another hot day is expected Sunday. Heat indices will be in the triple digits again in nearly all of the forecast area. There is some question on how much dewpoints will mix out, and that will play into what areas will see heat advisory criteria of 105+ degree heat indices tomorrow. In coordination with TSA, have issued a heat advisory for tomorrow across the southeast where the highest likelihood of meeting criteria is, and would expect that this advisory will have to be expanded, but will let the evening and overnight shifts look at model trends for how high the afternoon dewpoints/humidity is expected for tomorrow.
The other concern is fire weather. With some surface cyclogenesis predicted in southeast Colorado tomorrow, wind speeds will be higher than today. Afternoon RH will likely fall to less than 20 percent across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Meanwhile most of western Oklahoma and western north Texas have seen less than 0.25 inches of rain in the last two weeks with many areas receiving no precipitation, and with that we are seeing drying fuels and an increase in the ERC (Energy Release Component) of vegetation in the west. With the higher wind speeds forecast for Sunday, much of western Oklahoma is forecast to experience elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday afternoon, with portions of northwest and west central Oklahoma forecasting near- critical conditions. Elevated conditions are expected across western Oklahoma again on Monday afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Summer heat continues through about mid week next week as the upper ridge keeps us dry and mostly sunny.
Synoptic uncertainty increases significantly after Wednesday. There's a signal for one or more systems to move through the central plains mid to late week (bringing rain chances and cooler temperatures, with the highest chances in northern Oklahoma), but ensemble members diverge greatly on timing.
Day
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light southeasterly winds will gradually veer through the period, becoming breezy towards the middle-to-late morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 105 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 75 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ032-043-048- 052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
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