textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for rain showers to return to southeast Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Wintry precipitation is possible towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a strong cold front coupled with a medium (40-70%) chance for precipitation.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Breezy winds will continue into the afternoon as temperatures struggle to climb (highs in the 30s and 40s) under mostly cloudy skies. We're seeing radar echoes in northern Oklahoma moving into central Oklahoma (and have heard a few reports of flurries), but most of the snow seems to be struggling to reach the ground.

Skies will clear out tonight and, with winds becoming light, radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens and 20s.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Temperatures will surge back into the 50s tomorrow under the influence of southerly surface flow and clear skies. Efficient mixing should allow for gusty winds across western and northern Oklahoma during the afternoon.

A weak front Tuesday night will shift winds back to northerly (with light speeds). Ahead of this front, the warm and moist flow will bring a low to medium chance (30-50%) for rain across south central Oklahoma early Wednesday morning. Amounts are expected to remain light.

Temperatures will continue in the 50s on Wednesday, despite the front, then drop into the 20s and 30s Wednesday night.

Day

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Update: The NBM continues to trend colder for Friday and Saturday. Snow probabilities have increased. Freezing rain probabilities have tightened along the Red River. The previous discussion (below) remains largely valid with an increase in precipitation probabilities to 40-70%. Note, there is still a lot of spread in ensemble solutions, but confidence in impactful winter weather this weekend is increasing.

Day

Previous Discussion:

Thursday will feature increasing clouds with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Heading into the end of next week and the weekend, models are starting to become consistent with a strong cold front bringing a very cold Canadian airmass into the area by Friday and lingering through the weekend. NBM temperature trends have been gradually lowering for this weekend, but the most recent 19/01z model run has been the most aggressive with lowering temperatures. However, there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the strength and exact timing of the cold air. The NBM range of highs for OKC on Saturday is still around 40 degrees (warmest solution) and near 10 degrees (coldest solution).

The pattern has been persistent through the last few model runs for a closed low to strengthen off the coast of Southern Cali with increased sub-tropical moisture over the Southern Plains. The uncertainty with this system comes into play with the evolution of the upper low, which will play a role in the longevity, intensity and primary locations for precipitation potential. There is a low-to- medium (30-50%) chance for precipitation across portions of the forecast area towards the end of the week and into the weekend and a high (>90%) chance for below freezing temperatures during this time. Thus, there is medium-to-high confidence that there would be some sort of wintry precipitation. However, as mentioned above, the confidence on how the pattern aloft and moisture evolve will play a bigger role in the question of "what type", "exact timing", and "how much" and these details will continue to be assessed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

All terminals expected to remain in a VFR category through the forecast period. A weak mid-level disturbance coming down from southwest Kansas could produce scattered light snow to flurries with little if any accumulations across northern Oklahoma through 21Z. As a result, PROB30s for -SN are in place across terminals KWWR, KSWO, and KPNC. Not expecting the snow flurries to reduce visibilities much. Otherwise high surface pressure settling over northeast Oklahoma/Missouri Ozarks will keep surface winds out of the north-northeast at 10-15 kts gusting 15 to near 30 kts through 00Z. Surface winds should go light & variable after 00Z but gradually increasing out of the south-southwest by 12Z with wind speeds increasing to 10 kts by 16Z gusting 15-20 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 22 50 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 19 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 22 54 40 59 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 20 55 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 19 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 23 54 41 59 / 0 0 40 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.