textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Marginal risk of severe storms today and tonight with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible

- Slight risk of severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and overnight withe damaging straight line winds and locally heavy rainfall possible

- Marginal risk of severe storms on Wednesday

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A diffuse stationary front is draped across central Oklahoma (Gage to Weatherford to Seminole) and a remnant outflow boundary near the Red River (Truscott to Wichita Falls to Waurika to south of Atoka). These boundaries will be the focal zones for potential shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Chances are lower for central Oklahoma compared to the Red River area based on a few suppression factors - namely, mid-level height rises and subsidence from last night's storm complex (preliminarily classified as a derecho).

Daytime heating and stronger frontogenesis near the remnant outflow boundary will be where the somewhat higher storm chances are, which include portions of southwest, southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening with large hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall possible. While the 12Z HREF would suggest at least a medium potential of an additional 1 inch of rainfall tonight over southern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas, some of the latest guidance suggests this may occur south of our FA.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The effective surface front is expected to remain in our area, though models differ on how far north it lifts. Hot/muggy conditions are anticipated south of the front on Tuesday and Wednesday. While a few models show high heat index values on Tuesday, the probabilities of reaching heat advisory criteria (105 deg) are low.

Subtle perturbations embedded within the west/northwest flow combined with plentiful instability and a surface boundary will provide for continued shower and thunderstorm chances through the short term period. There is a slight risk of severe storms late Tuesday as another complex of severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. Straight line damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall appear to be the main concerns. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorm exists on Wednesday.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Our upper pattern will not be changing much in the long term with embedded shortwaves coming through the ridging. At the surface our warm front may be stalling out somewhere near to north of I-40 eventually lifting into the Central Plains by the end of the week with strong southerly winds coming up into the weekend. Storm POPs will be shifting higher across northern Oklahoma late in the week near the surface boundary with the start of a dry pattern this weekend along with hotter temperatures returning with triple digit highs perhaps west of the I-35 corridor. Overall this weekend is trending hotter & muggy and dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue through much of the day across most sites (excluding northern Oklahoma). MVFR ceilings are expected to return later this evening into the overnight hours across most TAF sites. There is a low signal for additional showers and thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening, potentially spreading northward across the I-40 corridor by daybreak.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 87 73 89 / 70 30 50 60 Hobart OK 68 92 73 94 / 50 30 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 71 95 75 97 / 50 20 10 10 Gage OK 65 88 68 87 / 30 20 60 30 Ponca City OK 65 82 70 83 / 20 40 70 70 Durant OK 74 90 77 93 / 70 30 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.