textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Precipitation chances this afternoon into Monday near and north of a cold front.

- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow north, but heat persists in the south.

- Dangerous heat continues through the week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Cold front just north of the I-44 corridor will continue its slow progression southward this afternoon and this evening. The front is expected to be near the I-40 corridor or slightly farther south across western Oklahoma by late this afternoon and will be a focus for convective development. Although, many of this mornings CAMs have backed off to one degree or another on this development, most have some hint of a few showers and thunderstorms. There is more agreement of activity developing this evening and overnight north of the I-40 corridor. Meanwhile the front will continue to move slowly south toward the Red River. Given the environment late today, any storm that becomes strong enough will pose a damaging wind risk. Along with the wind threat, any cloud-to-ground lightning that occurs will pose a risk of starting wildfires.

The other impact from the front will be some cooling across northern and especially northwest Oklahoma where temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 90s. Elsewhere the combination of very hot temperatures and humidity will result in heat indices reaching Heat Advisory criteria. The exception outside of northwest Oklahoma will be across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas, where drier air will keep heat indices in check.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma Monday morning, but this activity is expected to diminish as it moves eastward during the morning hours.

In addition, the front will have stalled near the Red River and will then begin to wash out and lift back northward during the day. What is left of the boundary will be focus for afternoon convective development. The location of where this will be is in question, but best guess would be from southeast Oklahoma stretching across central into northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon.

The location of the front will also play a role in where a Heat Advisory would likely be needed for Monday. With that in mind will hold off on any heat headlines for Monday and let later shifts hone in on where the front will be and which area is most likely to reach advisory criteria. North of the front will have one more day of slightly cooler temperatures as well as most of that area remaining in the 90s for highs.

As southwesterly flow in the lower levels return Monday night into Tuesday, it will bring warmer air back northward and as a result Tuesdays highs will once again be in the 100-110 degree range. This southwest flow will also aid in bringing drier air into much of the the state and north Texas, allowing afternoon RH values to drop into the 15-25% range. The hot temperatures and low afternoon RH will elevate the fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The operational runs of the medium-range models are still suggesting a shift in the pattern with the upper ridge amplifying in the west and troughing developing from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow aloft over the Plains. With this shift, the operational models bring a cold front into the area Wednesday night. The main surge of the cooler airmass pushes into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, so there is still a question how much cooler the air would be for us. NBM is still not fully capturing the potential of this cold front has keeps hot temperatures in most areas late into the week. If there continues to be consistency in the forecast pattern shift, forecast temperatures would likely be not-as-hot as the current forecast. But the ECWMF keeps 594-595 dm 500 mb heights over the forecast area and then pushes the ridge toward the southern Plains by Saturday, so this pattern may not bring significant cooling or any cooling could again be short-lived. We'll continue to watch the trends over the next few days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR ceilings with mid and high clouds. A frontal boundary will continue to slowly move SE causing winds to shift towards the north. Some showers/storms could develop late this afternoon/early evening near the front. Rain chances will continue overnight into Monday morning across northern OK. Rain chances are too low for mention at some TAFs or during some time periods but overall the chances are generally near and north of I-40. Strong, variable winds are possible with the showers/storms, especially late this afternoon/evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 98 74 104 / 20 30 20 0 Hobart OK 74 102 73 106 / 20 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 106 76 106 / 0 10 10 0 Gage OK 67 95 68 104 / 50 20 20 0 Ponca City OK 72 93 71 102 / 30 30 10 0 Durant OK 77 105 77 106 / 0 10 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.