textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Cool, below to near normal temperatures expected through early this week before heat and humidity returns.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A few light showers will be possible along the Red River early this morning, otherwise a cloudy, cool and dry morning expected.

Cooler than normal temperatures will remain one more day as cool surface ridge gradually shifts east. As this occurs surface winds will shift from north to east and then southeast across much of the area. South winds will return to northwestern Oklahoma by late in the day. Morning clouds will also give way to more sunshine by afternoon, aiding in temperatures warming into the low to middle 80s, warmest across the west.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A minor shortwave embedded in the northwest flow will makes its southeast out of Colorado and New Mexico Monday evening with some showers and thunderstorms developing in the higher terrain to our west. Some of this activity will make a run at northwest Oklahoma. Should see a general weakening as they approach the area as instability will be minimal.

South winds return area wide Tuesday, advecting higher dewpoints back northward across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, another shortwave will drop southeast in the northwest mid-level flow across Kansas during the day. This may provide an opportunity for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop and impact portions of northern Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon and evening. With modest instability and deep-layer shear developing by this time as well, not out of the question for a strong to severe storm or two to occur.

South to southwest low level flow will increase Wednesday as larger upper trough drops southeast through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and associated surface front drops south through the central PLains and into southern Kansas by late in the day. A thermal ridge to the south of the front along with abundant sunshine will allow surface temperatures to jump back well above normal with triple digit heat across much of the western third of the state and western north Texas. With the increased moisture heat indices will also jump back into the advisory level across much of the area Wednesday afternoon.

The front will slide south into northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening with a chance for convective development along the front with this activity then moving south through the overnight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rain chances will become more widespread on Thursday, but chances will shift southward rather quickly as well as the front moves through the state and into Texas. Models differ some on how far south the front will go before likely stalling. Currently will keep higher pops across the south and southeast Thursday night into Friday morning, but if the front moves a bit further south better rain chances will also likely shift further south.

This front and associated cloud cover and rain will cool temperatures down closer to normal for late in the week as well (mid/upper 80s and lower 90s).

A bit warmer on Saturday as south winds return and can not rule out a stray shower or storm with abundant moisture in place, but will lack any organization as flow aloft is very week. Another front and associated precip looks to occur on Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Satellite shows cloud cover proliferating off of the High Plains late this evening along with a few elevated showers. These should remain with ceilings above 5,000 feet along and north of I-40 tonight. Lower ceilings are expected south of I-40, particularly in western north Texas, which will last until late morning. Winds are expected to remain fairly light throughout the TAF period.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 63 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 Hobart OK 84 63 92 72 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 66 92 72 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 83 61 90 70 / 0 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 81 62 88 71 / 0 0 20 30 Durant OK 82 68 88 73 / 10 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.