textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- An isolated strong storm may be possible this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Gusty wind and small hail would be the primary hazards.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through next weekend across portions of the area. Strong storms may be possible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Closed low will continue to meander across portions of central/eastern TX this afternoon then begin lifting north towards eastern OK tonight. With afternoon heating, shower/storm development is possible around this low. This activity could develop as far north as portions of southern OK and western north TX. With instability around 1500 J/kg expected this afternoon and weak shear, some of the storms could become strong but pulse in nature. Small hail and gusty winds would be possible with the stronger storms. The storms are expected to dissipate this evening with the loss of heating.

Despite partly cloudy skies, there is still plenty of sunshine that will lead to a warm afternoon with highs in the 80s to around 90. South to southeast winds will maintain a moist airmass over the area today continuing to advect 60s dewpoints northward. With these dewpoints, temperatures are expected to only fall as low as the 60s tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Higher and more widespread rain chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as we move into a wet pattern. Models show an upper low digging into the Pacific NW today then sinking southward across the western U.S. Meanwhile, a shortwave is expected to rotate around the eastern side of this low moving NE then NNE across the southern Rockies and southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. The shortwave will increase lift across the region bringing the increasing chances across the fa but beginning in SW portions of the fa before spreading north and east into Wednesday. Models show a line of storms/MCS developing west of the area Tuesday afternoon as the shortwave approaches/moves into the region. These storms are expected to move eastward into parts of the fa late Tuesday afternoon/early evening then continue to move east across portions of the area Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to maybe severe with hail and strong wind gusts possible. Locally heavy rain will also be possible which might lead to some localized flooding.

Showers/storms will also be possible in eastern portions of the fa Tuesday afternoon as the TX low lifts northward across eastern OK. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Showers/storms will continue into Wednesday as the shortwave continues to meander across the region. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds/small hail. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.

Another warm day is expected Tuesday although a few degrees cooler than today with highs in the low to mid 80s. With more cloud cover and rain expected in the area, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal and cooler compared to the previous days with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

In the wake of the shortwave, there may be brief ridging that could bring a potential decrease/lull in precipitation chances towards the end of the week, especially across western portions of the forecast area. Southerly surface winds may also make a return with increasing temperatures back into the 90s across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. At the same time, the upper closed low over Nevada will become a negatively tilted trough that ejects northward towards the northern Rockies. A shortwave following in behind the low over Baja Cali this weekend will bring a return to the southwesterly flow aloft and moisture with the subtropical jet. Thus, several days of rain and storm chances may once again return by next weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR category is expected at all terminals through the period. Diurnal cumulus continues to expand across central, eastern and southern Oklahoma late this morning. A few heavy downpours/thunder may ultimately emerge from this development into the afternoon, with PROB30 mention added at KDUA.

Scattered rain showers/storms will expand across portions of western-north Texas on Tuesday morning, possibly threatening KSPS towards the end of the current valid period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 83 64 78 / 0 30 60 80 Hobart OK 62 82 61 79 / 10 60 100 60 Wichita Falls TX 63 83 63 81 / 10 70 90 60 Gage OK 60 82 58 77 / 0 40 70 70 Ponca City OK 62 84 63 82 / 0 10 20 70 Durant OK 66 84 67 81 / 10 30 60 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.