textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Hot and dry conditions return this weekend and continue next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected most days this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A complex of thunderstorms is currently moving southeast across central Kansas early this morning. With the outflow boundary ahead of the convection, the complex has generally been weakening the last couple hours. Increasing downstream convective inhibition and a relatively weak low-level jet should result in a continued weakening trend as it moves to the southeast with the most likely scenario the complex dissipating before reaching the Oklahoma/Kansas state line. There is only a low chance the remnants will impact northwest Oklahoma later this morning. Even so, any impacts should be minimal with no severe weather expected.

Otherwise, an ~597 dam mid-level ridge--currently centered across the Four Corners region in the southwest United States--will begin to expand and move to the east today in tandem with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge. This will coincide with the return to southeast to southerly winds at the surface Essentially--putting it all together--this synoptic pattern will commence a warming and drying trend today. However, with the Southern Plains still on the eastern edge of the ridges influence, the hottest weather will hold off for another day. Even so, temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s to low 100s deg F, which is above-normal for late August.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Hotter weather will return over the weekend as the center of the ~594 dam mid-level ridge will be across the Southern Plains with a strong low-level thermal ridge. As a result, temperatures will be in the 100s deg F both days with a Heat Advisory potentially needed for parts of the area by Sunday afternoon.

South to south-southwest winds will also increase, especially by Sunday afternoon, with a strengthening surface pressure gradient. With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, elevated fire weather conditions are expected--especially across the western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas, where relative humidity values are forecast to fall below 20%.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the Southern Plains for the week ahead with only slight wobbles in its location forecast.

Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance (i.e., the National Blend of Models) indicates very little spread among the 10th and 90th percentile temperature forecast, which indicates high confidence for above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F.

This synoptic-scale pattern will also be unfavorable for rainfall with drought conditions continuing to worsen across Oklahoma and north Texas. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are likely most days with the hot and dry conditions that are combined with very dry fuels. The total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires to low-end large fires.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions with some mid/high clouds. Winds will generally be from the E and SE this TAF period. An MCV moving south across KS may lead to shower/storm development today as it continues to move south into/across the area. Chances are currently too low (10-15%) for mention in TAFs but something to keep an eye on.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 97 72 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 98 71 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 72 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 97 71 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 93 70 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 101 71 101 74 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.