textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 443 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- First wave of rainfall potential will primarily stay west of the area.

- The next chances of rain will be across the northwest half of the area Monday Night/Tuesday, and areawide late Thursday through the end of the week.

- Above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 443 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Light to moderate rainfall is ongoing across far northwest Oklahoma this afternoon ahead of an embedded shortwave. Have increased POPs through tonight over northwest Oklahoma with the approach of another shortwave embedded within mid-level southwest flow.

Thompson

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Stubborn upper ridge continues to control the weather across Oklahoma and much of the eastern half of Texas. It is also keeping the upper low to our west from pushing east, thus the rain remains west of the area. By later today the closed low will begin to open up and then lift northeast out of the four corners area into the central Plains. This will keep any precip confined to far northwest Oklahoma today and tonight.

In addition, the upper ridge will allow temperatures once again today to rise well above normal in spite of the extensive high and increasing mid clouds spreading east and northeast in advance of the upper low. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

For tonight the upper low will continue to lift north and northeast across Colorado and into the northern Plains. Skies will remain cloudy however and with the south winds temperatures will only fall back into the mid/upper 50s to near 60.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

By Monday another southern stream shortwave moves north out of north central Mexico into southwest Texas. This will initially provide widespread cloud cover, but Gulf moisture will be rather meager as off-shore winds have limited northward transport. The cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler during the day, but still well above normal. We could see a few stray showers across western Oklahoma, but most locations will remain dry Monday.

Although surface moisture will be slow to respond, deeper moisture above the surface will move north into the area as the shortwave approaches Monday night and Tuesday. This should provide an opportunity for rainfall(amounts remain light) further east into the body of the state, although the higher rain chances will be across western third of the state including western north Texas. Highest rainfall amounts would likely remain across western and northwestern Oklahoma and those would likely be around a quarter to half an inch.

Even with the potential for precip and extensive cloud cover, temperatures will again climb into the middle 70s to lower 80s Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Any low-level cold air continues to be stuck in the northwestern United States or under the large scale mean trough over the western U.S., so our above average temperatures will persist through the rest of the week. A wave in the southwesterly flow aloft is shown by most models to approach late this week bringing more widespread rain chances Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be modulated by clouds and precipitation, but will continue to be above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. South to southeast winds will have some afternoon gustiness particularly in northwest Oklahoma, but otherwise remain closer to 5 to 15 mph. Mid to high clouds continue to invade the area. There's a very low chance for a few showers to sneak into western Oklahoma, but not enough confidence to include in TAF.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 57 77 59 76 / 0 0 20 30 Hobart OK 58 76 59 76 / 0 0 40 50 Wichita Falls TX 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 20 40 Gage OK 56 75 55 75 / 10 20 80 20 Ponca City OK 57 78 58 75 / 0 0 30 50 Durant OK 55 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.