textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Precipitation chances this afternoon into Monday near and north of a cold front.

- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow north, but heat persists in the south.

- Dangerous heat continues through the week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Initial cold front has moved into northwest Oklahoma, but the forward progress will slow down through the day. Temperatures will still be warm behind the front, but at least nudge them down below heat advisory criteria in the northwest.

The convection early this morning remains well northwest of the forecast area. Scattered storms are expected to develop near and north of the front this afternoon, and continue into the evening. The spread between the temperature and dewpoint will be quite high again today, forecast soundings show an inverted-V sounding and forecast downdraft CAPE is progged to be quite high (seeing some 1500 J/kg in some of the HRRR forecast soundings). Therefore thunderstorms that do become strong will have the potential of producing isolated areas of severe/damaging winds.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The cold front will settle a little farther south tonight and Monday. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-upper 90s across northern Oklahoma, but it will still be hot in areas south of the cold front. A Heat Advisory will be needed Monday across the south, but the specific geography will depend on where the front will be on Monday afternoon, so we will wait to issue the advisory until we have more clarity on that.

Scattered storms are expected to redevelop near and north of the front again on Monday afternoon. Again strong to potentially severe storms producing strong winds will be possible with these storms in the afternoon and evening.

The reprieve from the very hot conditions in the north with this front will be short-lived as this airmass washes out/retreats and hot temperatures are expected areawide again on Tuesday.

Dry south-southwest winds will bring very low relative humidity (less than 20%) across the western half of the area. This will create a widespread area of elevated fire weather conditions, although fortunately the winds are not currently expected to be strong enough to nudge into near-critical levels.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The operational runs of the medium-range models are still suggesting a shift in the pattern with the upper ridge amplifying in the west and troughing developing from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow aloft over the Plains. With this shift, the operational models bring a cold front into the area Wednesday night. The main surge of the cooler airmass pushes into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, so there is still a question how much cooler the air would be for us. NBM is still not fully capturing the potential of this cold front has keeps hot temperatures in most areas late into the week. If there continues to be consistency in the forecast pattern shift, forecast temperatures would likely be not-as-hot as the current forecast. But the ECWMF keeps 594-595 dm 500 mb heights over the forecast area and then pushes the ridge toward the southern Plains by Saturday, so this pattern may not bring significant cooling or any cooling could again be short-lived. We'll continue to watch the trends over the next few days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A summer cold front will make its way to the I-40 corridor by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary during the afternoon and evening timeframe, and strong winds will be possible with the strongest storms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 103 75 99 74 / 20 20 30 20 Hobart OK 104 74 103 74 / 20 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 104 77 106 77 / 10 0 10 10 Gage OK 96 68 96 70 / 10 40 30 20 Ponca City OK 99 73 93 72 / 10 40 30 10 Durant OK 104 78 106 77 / 10 0 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.