textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Above-normal temperatures this afternoon with elevated fire weather conditions across central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas.

- A cold front Tuesday night will usher in a return towards seasonable temperatures and gusty northerly winds on Wednesday. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected during the afternoon. - A stronger cold front late in the week may bring additional periods of gusty winds and fire weather conditions.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1212 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Very warm temperatures today nearly 15-20 degrees above normal in the 60s to some areas of lower 70s. With little recovery of RHs overnight and quick rising temperatures today, expect pretty widespread RH values this afternoon in the teens (13 to 20 percent) across all but northern Oklahoma. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph today with higher gusts up to 25 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 6 PM for elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area south of I-44, including western north Texas. If winds overachieve this afternoon, there could be some spotty areas of near-critical fire weather conditions that develop across the aforementioned area.

An embedded shortwave in the main trough axis across the northeast CONUS will dig into the Plains tonight. A cold front will push south across the forecast area late tonight bringing northerly winds and increasing mid-to-high cloud cover. There may be a presence of some light echoes, virga, on radar tonight with the passing front. A 40- 45 knot low-level jet overnight tonight will bring increasing wind speeds through sunrise Wednesday morning. North winds of roughly 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 20 to 30 mph with some locally higher gusts possible. Despite mild overnight lows tonight being only about 10 degrees below normal highs, gusty winds will bring the "feels like" temperatures back into the upper 20s to 30s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1212 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

As the sun rises heading into Wednesday morning, stronger winds will begin to mix to the surface with increasing winds through the afternoon. Expect north winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. There are some pockets of wind gusts 40-45 mph through the afternoon hours, mainly across southwest Oklahoma and a Wind Advisory Headline is not anticipated but may be needed if winds continue to trend stronger. The cold air will also be delayed Wednesday with temperatures still warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. The coldest airmass with the system will keep to our east and therefore the post-frontal temperatures Wednesday in central/northern Oklahoma will be only slightly below normal in the lower 50s. Mostly wind-driven elevated fire weather conditions will return again Wednesday afternoon with RH values generally expected to be around 30-45 percent.

The cooler post-frontal airmass will be quickly be scoured with a return to southwesterly surface flow and warm downsloping. Temperatures will rise back to above normal in the 60s to lower 70s, especially near the 100th meridian and into western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas. With the surface high lingering to our east, cooler temperatures in the 50s will still remain across central and into eastern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The approach of a strong southeastward-diving upper wave late in the week will foster another chance for a strong frontal passage and associated cooler temperatures. While the initial front looks to sweep across the forecast area early on Friday, seasonable conditions (50s) are currently advertised during the daytime. With another bout of gusty (>30-35 mph) northerly winds and low relative humidity (<20-25%), a potentially concerning fire environment is possible on Friday afternoon, particularly across western Oklahoma.

The brunt of the associated cooler airmass will begin to be felt by Saturday morning, as a 1032+ millibar surface high quickly races southward across the Central Plains. The associated track of the aforementioned surface high (and associated upper trough) will be significant players on sensible conditions by Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday. We continue to note a large spread in potential high temperatures on Sunday (upper-30s/40s vs. 50s/low-60s) in ensemble guidance.

Our prolonged period of dry weather looks to continue through the weekend, with nil chance for precipitation currently captured in our gridded forecast.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Most of the forecast area is seeing clear skies this afternoon, though high cloud cover is noted across the northern and southern peripheries. Regardless, VFR skies continue. A cold front will enter the area from the north around 05Z and push through rapidly during the early morning hours. Winds will increase out of the north and become gusty after daybreak. There is likely to be a several-hour period of low-level northerly wind shear as well immediately behind the front.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 44 52 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 41 56 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 43 59 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 37 52 26 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 41 50 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 45 58 28 55 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.