textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 - A brief period of elevated fire weather (far western Oklahoma) and potential for a few severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- A continued risk for severe weather on Wednesday-Saturday across portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1244 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Fairly dynamic weather today with a dryline and cold front impacting the area and yielding brief elevated fire weather conditions and a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

Fire Weather: The latest look at observations and hi-res guidance suggests we may only see an hour or two of RH driven elevated fire weather conditions nudge into Harmon / Hardeman counties this afternoon. The fast progression of the cold front will quickly overrun this feature with cooler temperatures.

Severe Weather: Most of the day is expected to remain dry during the day. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, but the highest rain chances will arrive after midnight, mainly along and behind the front. These elevated storms will present a marginal risk of severe hazards (mainly hail) as ample elevated instability and deep layer shear will be in place. Coverage is expected to be scattered with limited overall QPF.

Temperatures and Winds: The front has already arrived in northwest Oklahoma bringing northwest winds and much colder air behind it. With the progression of the front and persistent cloud cover, the temperature forecast has been a bit of a challenge (especially for northern Oklahoma). Leaning into hi res guidance which caps northwest Oklahoma in the 50s, while allowing the I-44 corridor to sore into the 80s due to pre-frontal torching. Gusty south to southwest winds are also expected ahead of the front. The front is expected to slow down as it enters our southeast counties, allowing for an overnight temperature gradient as well (40s NW vs. 50s and 60s SE).

Day

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1244 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Some convection may linger into Wednesday morning. The stalled front will serve as a focus for the next storm potential Wednesday afternoon and evening in south central Oklahoma. Right now, CAMs keep this activity fairly scattered, but instability and shear will support a few severe storms with hail as the main threat. As the front begins to lift northward early Thursday morning, this convective activity may spread into central Oklahoma. Otherwise, Wednesday looks to be cool and cloudy behind the front.

Southerly surface flow will bring back warmer temperatures (70s) on Thursday. Storms are expected to initiate along a dryline late in the day across the panhandles, then migrate eastward Thursday evening and overnight. These storms will be sustained by a strong low level jet, supporting a severe risk into western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Hazards include large hail, damaging winds, and a low risk for tornadoes.

Day

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

FRIDAY: As the axis of the aforementioned upper trough continues to slowly approach the area, chances for thunderstorms and severe weather will continue on Friday, mainly from the late afternoon through night. An extensive dryline, stretching from the Central Plains southward into central Texas will slowly mix eastward into west-central Oklahoma through the day as a primary upper impulse lifts across the central Rockies.

While at least scattered convective coverage is currently forecast to emanate off the dryline, recent progs of the upper systems progression (yielding neutral or slightly rising height tendency), and potential for a stronger-than-modeled elevated mixed layer, raise uncertainty regarding just how many storms we will see on Friday. Regardless, the expected environment would appear capable of organized storms/supercells posing a risk for hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Perhaps the most unfortunate trend in the forecast is the run-over- run decrease in rainfall totals with each round of precipitation leading up to and on Friday. There is now a real chance that many locations along and west of the I-44 corridor miss out on significant (>0.75-1") rainfall accumulations.

SATURDAY & NEXT WEEK: A more chaotic upper pattern introduces a significant amount of uncertainty once we move into the upcoming weekend and beyond. At least some potential for lingering showers and thunderstorms remains on Saturday across the Red River Valley. Pending details on frontal position/quality of the associated warm sector, a few severe thunderstorms may also be possible here during the afternoon and evening.

Our current gridded forecast and ensemble model guidance supports the idea of a mainly dry and warmer period on Sunday into next week, with potential for another dynamic upper system towards the midweek period.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A stubborn area of fog/stratus remains across northern/northwest Oklahoma behind the frontal boundary. WWR continues to be fully socked in at 1/4SM and 200 feet, though the southern edge of the stratus and clear skies is just a few miles south. Would assume that this area lifts some (maybe only to IFR ceilings instead of LIFR) for a couple of hours this afternoon before surging southward with the front this evening. This will bring ceilings down to IFR/LIFR by daybreak across much of the area. An area of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop across western and northern Oklahoma late tonight and move east-northeast through early morning. This will likely be followed by drizzle near the I-35 corridor in the morning.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 49 59 49 73 / 30 40 40 40 Hobart OK 46 62 47 77 / 30 30 30 30 Wichita Falls TX 56 64 56 79 / 30 30 60 50 Gage OK 39 62 40 74 / 50 20 0 20 Ponca City OK 46 57 42 73 / 50 70 20 10 Durant OK 64 74 59 78 / 20 60 70 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.