textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Warmer temperatures Tuesday, hot Wednesday, then back closer to average late in the week.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Clouds have eroded across much of the northern two-thirds of the forecast area this morning. Updated the forecast to raise high temperatures this morning and it looks like we are in generally good shape for today.

Winds will become more southerly this evening as the surface ridge moves east away from the area. A cold front over the Central Plains will move into Kansas tonight. There is a QPF signal in most of the synoptic models and many of the CAMs of the potential for widely scattered showers or storms near the front late tonight, and although the best signal remains north in Kansas, have expanded the area of the mention of slights chances of showers/storms in northern Oklahoma for after midnight.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The cold front stalls out near or more likely north of the Kansas border while shortwave in the northwest flow aloft. Additional storms may develop Tuesday afternoon near the front. Again, the best signal is farther to the northeast, but enough potential to keep 20 percent precipitation chances across north central Oklahoma in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday, heights rise across the southern Plains as upper ridging builds in the western United States. And with this... another hot day. High temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits across the west and 90s elsewhere, and triple digit heat index values through much of the area. A heat advisory will likely be needed for Wednesday. But again, a cold front over Kansas will push toward the Oklahoma border or into northern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon with at least some potential of showers/storms building into northern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rain chances will become more widespread on Thursday, but chances will shift southward rather quickly as well as the front moves through the state and into Texas. Models differ some on how far south the front will go before likely stalling. Currently will keep higher pops across the south and southeast Thursday night into Friday morning, but if the front moves a bit further south better rain chances will also likely shift further south.

This front and associated cloud cover and rain will cool temperatures down closer to normal for late in the week as well (mid/upper 80s and lower 90s).

A bit warmer on Saturday as south winds return and can not rule out a stray shower or storm with abundant moisture in place, but will lack any organization as flow aloft is very week. Another front and associated precip looks to occur on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered to broken cloud cover will persist through the forecast period with only terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma potentially reducing to an MVFR category now through 02Z with TEMPOs in place there due to a lowering of ceilings. Otherwise all of our remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. There is a 30% probability for rain and/or an elevated thunderstorm coming down off the Central Plains into northern OK late between 09-13Z. As a result have PROB30s for -TSRA which may only impact terminals KPNC & KWWR. Light northeast surface winds at 5-10 kts will continue to veer becoming more southeast after 00Z although winds could go light & variable overnight at some terminals. By 14Z expecting to see surface winds increasing out of the southwest at 5-10 kts then perhaps veer more west- southwest toward the end of the forecast period. Weak low-level flow should keep wind gusts fairly minimal down at the surface.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 63 90 72 95 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 63 92 72 101 / 0 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 92 72 98 / 0 10 10 0 Gage OK 62 91 72 104 / 20 20 20 0 Ponca City OK 63 90 72 97 / 20 30 20 10 Durant OK 69 88 73 92 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.