textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, with hail up to the size of quarters, gusts to 70 mph, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Flood Watch in effect for a small area of north central Oklahoma

- Summer finally shows up.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Friday afternoon and evening may be the most interesting part of this forecast update, as just enough parameters are in place for at least scattered thunderstorms. Since it is still June, any thunderstorm will have an appropriate amount of instability and shear to produce a few severe storms.

Yesterday: much more of a classic setup, as evidenced by the tornadoes in the panhandles. Today isn't quite as volatile, yet there are steep lapse rates, 0-6km shear approaching 35 to 40 knots, and some juicy dewpoints in the 70s. This isn't enough for a repeat of yesterday, but should be enough to allow scattered storms to become severe if they can develop. ACARS and model soundings are pretty close, each showing between 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE in central and northwestern Oklahoma.

So, can storms indeed develop. For a lifting mechanism, there is a stalled front from Amarillo,TX to Wellington,KS to Springfield, MO. 18Z satellite data shows cu in the development stage...and daytime heating should enhance this through sunset. With few exceptions, the convective allowing models are showing a signal for increased cloud base RH...and are developing convection as early as 22Z, but especially by 0Z. Thus, at least scattered thunderstorms are likely in the north.

The cold front and associated boundaries are most notable on satellite just north of the border in southern Kansas. As storms fire here, they will be close enough to produce rain and/or runoff in Grant, Kay, and Noble Counties. This is the same area which has seen over 5+ inches of rain in spots this week. Rainfall amounts as little as 1/2 inch could aggravate any flooding issues there. Therefore, a Flood Watch was issued for those three counties through 12Z Saturday.

Fox

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

After 12Z Saturday, rain and thunderstorm chances decrease. As the rain chances move east, the temperatures will begin to rise. Low 90s today will quickly give way to mid and upper 90s on Saturday, with close to triple digits possible near Wichita Falls. Thankfully, nowhere near record setting territory. See below for more on that. However, despite not being records, it'll feel hot enough, as the heat index values will rise to as high as 103.

Record highs this weekend in Wichita Falls are two of the highest temperatures on record at KSPS. Saturday's high temperature record is 116, set in 1980. Sunday's high temperature record in Wichita Falls is the highest on record, 117 degrees, also set in 1980.

Fox

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Midnight shift did a great job with the overview, so have kept the text below. Of the next six days, we are currently forecasting one record warm minimum (record high morning low temp), two that tie existing records, and within 2 degrees of the remaining three. In other words, once the relative cool weather is gone, summer is heading in with a vengeance. Upper ridge will build, with monsoonal flow setting up over Arizona and New Mexico.

Fox

Previous long term discussion: 1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Above-average temperatures will be the main story next week with highs in the upper 90's to low 100's. Heat index values are forecast to remain just below advisory criteria, with warmer values expected over north-central Oklahoma into mid-week. Low shower and storm chances could linger across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected. Winds will generally be from the SW to SE. Scattered showers/storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight with the highest chances in northern OK although there are low chances in other areas as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 76 96 79 96 / 20 10 0 0 Hobart OK 76 100 78 100 / 10 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 102 80 102 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 92 79 94 / 50 10 0 0 Durant OK 78 94 77 95 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ007-008-013.

TX...None.