textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1141 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through Wednesday afternoon.

- Rain and scattered thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather are expected late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Chance of snow across northwestern Oklahoma Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

High and eventually mid-level clouds will increase ahead of a upper low/trough, currently off the southern California coast. This system will move to the east today as another trough approaches the West Coast. Meanwhile, southerly surface winds will increase today as the pressure gradient tightens. Despite some increase in near surface moisture, afternoon humidity is expected range from the upper teens to lower 20s across far western Oklahoma. During peak heating, model soundings suggest several cloud layers where elevate fire weather conditions could develop. So there appears to be a rather conditional period of elevate fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

The storm system to our west, will move quickly east Wednesday night and will become an open wave before reaching West Texas by early Thursday morning. An associated vort max will lift across the northern half of Oklahoma and into eastern Kansas by noon Thursday.

As this occurs, 50 to near 60 degree dewpoint air will advect northward into at least the eastern-two thirds of Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. As ascent increases scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop, especially between 3am-noon Thursday. CAMs and some deterministic models suggest higher rainfall totals will occur from southwest Oklahoma into central north central Oklahoma where better forcing and moisture will be. Regardless, it does appear most areas will receive some much needed rain.

Model soundings continue to suggest that most of the convection will be elevated with mainly a risk of strong winds and hail (storm motion northeast at 50+ mph). Although it appears to be a very low risk, we will need to watch for boundary-layer based convection.

Clouds will clear very quickly from southwest to northeast Thursday morning/early afternoon. Better cold air advection will be delayed until the afternoon and mainly across the northwest 1/4 of the state. Temperatures are expected to warm well into the 70s especially across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Although humidity may values may remain above 20-25 percent across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas a gusty southwest wind could elevate fire weather conditions. The bigger unknown at this time, is the amount of wetting rainfall that will occur across the area early Thursday morning.

Attention will quickly turn to another upper low/trough that will approach the southern and central Plains on Friday. The expected track of the low will limit winter type precipitation to mainly northwestern Oklahoma. Soundings certainly suggest some potential of snow, but the intensity and duration may not be enough for much of an impact. Any accumulations at this time will be limited to grassy areas.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1240 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

After the second system lifts northeast of the area, northwest flow aloft will bring a period of dry weather and afternoon high and overnight lows closer to early January averages. This will mainly occur as Canadian high pressure builds southward into the southern Plains Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

VFR skies continue through the rest of the afternoon with broken clouds generally in the 20,000 foot range. Those clouds are keeping gusts from registering, though sustained winds will still be 8-13 knots. South-southwest wind shear increases around midnight across the northeast 2/3 of the area. It is generally expected to peak around 40-45 knots, and will subside once a Pacific front moves through. That Pacific front will carry showers and rather widespread thunderstorms in a several hour window near daybreak. Rain-related visibility reductions and especially drops to low MVFR/high IFR ceilings look likely.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 56 69 38 52 / 80 80 0 10 Hobart OK 52 71 35 52 / 80 50 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 58 75 41 62 / 80 70 0 0 Gage OK 46 65 30 39 / 70 40 10 60 Ponca City OK 52 69 36 48 / 80 90 0 20 Durant OK 58 77 46 66 / 20 60 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.