textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Record heat expected by the end of this week into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially near and behind a front on Sunday. - No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Our early spring heat wave continues to build today along with concern for elevated fire weather across portions of the area. An anomalous/record-setting upper ridge continues to build across the Desert Southwest. The primary surface feature of note is a weak pressure trough extending from far western into northern Oklahoma early this afternoon.

While we will likely fall several degrees short of daily high temperature records today, temperatures will still run +10-15 degrees above normal for mid-March (upper-70s to upper-80s). Warmest conditions are expected across higher terrain east of the Caprock Escarpment, and near the axis of the weak surface pressure trough.

Surface winds will also be notably lighter compared to yesterday/Tuesday, though occasional southwesterly gusts to 25 mph will continue in areas east of the I-44 corridor into early this evening.

Despite lighter surface flow, warmer temperatures will yield very low relative humidity. Local pockets of single-digit percentages may be observed across far southwestern Oklahoma and western-north Texas this afternoon. Combined with increasingly drier/more volatile fuels, elevated fire weather conditions are expected in areas near and south of I-40, and a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 7 PM this evening.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The end of the week will feel more akin to early to mid-summer than the middle of March, with multiple days of potential record-setting heat. As the center of the strong upper ridge continues to slide slowly eastward, advected airmasses will continue to become more notable (i.e., warmer) with time.

Widespread afternoon temperatures in the 90s are expected on Thursday, with highest confidence of records across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas. It's possible that a few locations across the Texas Rolling Plains flirt with triple digits into the late afternoon.

Continued very low (<15%) relative humidity into the afternoon and early evening will again promote elevated fire weather conditions across western and southwestern portions of the forecast area. A passing weak front will introduce a west-to-northwest wind shift that will need to be considered relative to any established wildland fire.

Friday will feature more of the same, with temperatures likely a few degrees warmer, especially across central and north-central Oklahoma. There remains medium-high (>60%) confidence in daily high temperature records for much of the area. While light and variable winds should preclude problematic fire behavior, very low humidity conditions will persist during the daytime.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The large-scale pattern finally becomes unstuck on Saturday as the ridge wobbles eastward and deamplifies. Unfortunately for us, that actually means height rises, and Saturday is increasingly looking like the peak of the heat wave for most people. Expect widespread highs in the 90s and it would be a mild surprise if we do NOT see some triple digit readings across western north Texas in the afternoon. Heat risk will be elevated across a wider area and moderate in parts of western north Texas. Heat headlines may well be needed given the climatological anomaly this is.

A rapidly-advancing cold front introduces a heck of a lot of uncertainty into the temperature forecast on Sunday. Grand ensemble data shows a plausible spread in high temperatures of about 30 degrees near I-40; mid-60s if the front is faster, mid-90s if it's slower. What we do know is that the front will reduce temperatures from north to south as it passes, and that ahead of it (likely in western north Texas) the prefrontal torch could bring triple digits into play again. Fire weather will also come back into play in the much windier environment behind the front.

It looks like that "cooldown" (to average or slightly above average temperatures) will hold for a day, maybe two, before a second prong of the heat wave potentially develops toward the middle of next week. Precipitation chances continue to look bleak.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Surface winds have shifted to the northwest behind a surface trough in northwest Oklahoma with a breezy southwest to south wind prevailing elsewhere. Another surface trough will move across parts of northern, western and central Oklahoma Thursday morning.

VFR conditions will prevail with high clouds slowly decreasing this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 91 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 48 94 53 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 49 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 49 90 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 47 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 50 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.