textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

-Patchy fog possible tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly for portions of southern OK and western north TX.

-Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Pleasant conditions are in place this afternoon with plenty of sunshine, relatively light winds, and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. For tonight, winds are expected to become even lighter and with clear skies and residual ground moisture from recent rains, patchy fog will be possible. The best chances for fog development will be across portions of southwest and south-central OK into western north TX where the heaviest rains fell this past week and winds will be lightest overnight.

Otherwise, expect another cool night similar to last night with lows in the mid to upper 50s in most spots.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Veering mid-level flow and strengthening southerly surface winds will help boost temperatures several more degrees as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s each afternoon in most areas, with even a few 90s making a return across portions of southwest OK and western north TX. These temperatures will be ~7 to 10 deg F above- normal for early October. No precipitation is expected with mostly sunny skies both days.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures and generally dry conditions will continue through next weekend. There remains high confidence that no significant cool down will occur, as indicated by minimal spread in bias-corrected probabilistic guidance through Sunday. Highs are forecast to remain in the 80s to low 90s deg F. There is only a low chance (15%) of showers/storms Friday across parts of western north Texas in association with an upper-level low in Texas.

There are some signs of a potential pattern change by early next week (October 13-15) among deterministic models and some ensemble members, which could drive a cold front southward into the Plains. As a result, the temperature spread increases markedly (~30 deg F) in probabilistic guidance with the potential for an appreciable cold front passage. Currently, there is a 20% (south) to 50% (north) chance of high temperatures below 75 deg F on Tuesday, October 13.

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Clear skies and no clouds over the next 24 hours. Winds will gradually shift southerly by early morning across all but southeast Oklahoma sites, though wind speeds will generally be 12 knots or less. Signal on model guidance has backed off for fog development and have removed TEMPO groups from TAFs, but a 10-30% chance for fog still exists in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas in the early morning hours.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 58 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 58 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 59 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 56 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.