textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 446 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Heating trend on Friday peaking Saturday with triple digit heat indices returning becoming more widespread on Saturday.

- Storm chances each day through Saturday across southeast Oklahoma with more widespread chances in our area on Sunday.

- Isolated storm chances early next week with some areas not seeing any rain with near normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Another persistent forecast for today with breezy south winds and hot muggy conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s which is just slightly above normal (lower to mid 90s) for early July. We do have a 25% probability for isolated thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon with mostly cloudy skies across much of our area. Ridging from the closed upper high over the Southeastern U.S. will be gradually expanding westward into the Southern Plains while troughing in the Southwestern U.S. will start breaking down signaling an upcoming change (hotter) in our weather pattern for the short-term period. Surface moisture is strongest across southeast Oklahoma and a couple of degrees increase in the dewpoint may be sufficient to break the cap under a weak short-wave rounding the ridge. In a weak shear low-end moderately unstable environment there could be some short-lived isolated storms pulse up across our southeast CWA toward late afternoon. Other than gusty winds not expecting anything severe with this possible convection in our southeast. Latest CAMs runs also supporting convection in our southeast as well as NBM. However did spatially expand the NBM POPs further west and north by a few counties.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Upper ridging will continue building northward and westward on Friday and over the entire southern half of the country by late Saturday with the main jet stream flowing across the northern half of the country. We will see a 2-day heating trend starting Friday and peaking on Saturday. Although more subtle mid to upper 90s across the eastern half of our CWA but our western half will see triple digit highs by Saturday. Heat indices will also be increasing triple digits becoming widespread on Saturday generally between 100-105 degrees. The only areas that may reach or exceed heat advisory criteria may be a few counties in southeast Oklahoma where surface moisture remains highest although not looking like any widespread advisory as previous guidance suggested. NBM has been running a bit warm biased with temperatures in time and appears fairly representative for Friday but did have to adjust slightly cooler for Saturday's MaxT using the CONSMOS.

A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will move into the Central High Plains loosening the pressure gradient across our area weakening our south winds becoming less breezy going into Saturday. Strong moisture & diurnal heating could again break the cap across southeast Oklahoma on Friday & Saturday afternoons where isolated storm POPs (15%) will return. Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night across northern Oklahoma. A short-wave propagating through the main jet stream westerly flow across the U.S. Northern Plains may push a cold front through the Central Plains/Kansas initiating convection late Saturday night into our northern CWA. For now there is no severe risk expected for Saturday nights convection. Independence Day recap: Light south winds becoming variable after sundown. Heat indices 100-105 across most of our area during the afternoon becoming mid to upper 90s just after sundown. Although a slight chance for late afternoon storms in southeast OK will be expecting any storms coming down from Kansas to hold off until late evening at the earliest across northern Oklahoma. The skies may be mostly cloudy on Saturday although they are expected to be high- based ceilings well above the heights of fireworks displays.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Storm chances increase south of I-40 by daylight Saturday through the remainder of the morning. Models are inconsistent in handling the cold front with the ECMWF pushing it through on Monday as a backdoor front while the GFS solution washes it out on the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines with weak surface flow/winds through at least the first half of the week. Our upper air pattern starts becoming more chaotic with the upper ridge lifting the main jet stream flow further north into Canada then breaks down into numerous shortwave troughs. This will result in storm chances every day but would be rather isolated where some of our areas could see rain while others won't. Temperatures on Sunday will return to near normal meaning normal hot & muggy but no widespread excessive heating. However strong surface moisture across southeast Oklahoma will persist so heat indices may reach excessive in that area early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

An axis of showers and a few thunderstorms remain this morning near the 100th meridian. There is relatively high uncertainty as to whether this activity will reach KWWR and KCSM over the next few hours before dissipating. Otherwise, broken high clouds and scattered cumulus are forecast with scattered storms possible near KDUA this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 76 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 74 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 95 76 96 / 0 10 0 10 Durant OK 77 95 77 96 / 10 20 0 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.