textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Cooler and sunny today; low chance for a freeze in north-central Oklahoma Saturday morning.

- Widespread rain event expected from Saturday to Sunday, with most areas seeing at least 1/4 inch of rain and a maximum swath of around 1 inch of rain expected.

- Chilly on Sunday; slow warm-up thereafter.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

It's a bit cooler out there today compared to this time yesterday as a reinforcing shot of cooler air has settled into the region. Surface ridging is already losing its hold though as winds are veering to a more easterly direction as of early afternoon. Expect this trend to continue into tonight as troughing to the west encourages surface pressure falls along the lee of the Rockies. Lingering dry air and relatively light winds will still allow for a chilly night tonight, with lows fairly similar to last night, low to mid 30s north and low 40s south. Could once again see a bit of frost across north/northeast portions of the area but the relatively dry airmass should prevent this from being too widespread. Subfreezing temperatures are more favored to our northeast tonight, but can't rule out readings close to freezing in the more sheltered portions of north-central OK.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

On Saturday, the trough to our west will rapidly translate eastward and transition towards a cutoff low by Saturday night. As it does so, forcing (mainly in the form of warm advection) will increase over the area and encourage shower development from west to east through the day. A dry antecedent airmass will keep rainfall amounts initially light during the day, especially with eastward extent. Highs on Saturday will reach into the 50s in most areas, though we could see falling temperatures in the afternoon across western OK as the rain moves in due to evaporative cooling effects.

The bulk of the precipitation with this system is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as the cutoff low moves into OK. There may be enough elevated instability for a few thunderstorms across southwest OK into western north TX and given shear profiles would not be surprised to see some small hail/graupel with a few of the stronger storms (similar to our last system).

Precipitation is expected to become more scattered during the afternoon as the cutoff low weakens and shifts eastward, but a few showers could linger into the evening before tapering off completely. Total rainfall amounts are still expected to be between a half to one inch of rain in most areas, with some swaths of potentially higher totals possible, especially across southern parts of the area that may see convective activity.

Highs on Sunday will be quite chilly given widespread clouds and precipitation, with most areas expected to hover in the low to mid 40s with wind chill values in the 30s through the day. This would be the coldest afternoon most of the area has seen since last March!

Ware

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Drier forecast and a gradual warm-up throughout the week.

The trough zips out of the forecast area on Monday and is replaced by amplified shortwave ridging. Cloud cover will likely linger during much of the day on Monday and keep temperatures below normal. By Tuesday, the next large-scale trough across the West will begin influencing the surface pattern on the Plains by inducing lee troughing in the Dakotas/Wyoming/Montana. This will gradually cause winds to shift to southerly across the forecast area. However, the warmup that follows will likely be less-dramatic than we have seen again and again in 2026 because surface winds may not contain much of a westerly component, and because there will actually be cool air circulating even in the warm advection regime. Therefore, even by Wednesday highs will only be reaching around 60 in our area.

The warm advection regime becomes a little more pronounced by Thursday and into the end of the week, sending temperatures back above normal. Low-end precipitation chances creep back into the forecast on Thursday as well, but ensemble data have been pinpointing next weekend (in the Day 8 - Day 10 timeframe) as one of greater probability for impactful precipitation.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Easterly winds will slowly veer through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Increasing cloud cover and lowered ceilings are expected, but any MVFR ceilings are likely to materialize after 18Z Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 38 56 40 45 / 0 20 100 100 Hobart OK 41 55 42 47 / 0 60 100 90 Wichita Falls TX 44 60 45 51 / 0 40 100 80 Gage OK 33 52 36 45 / 0 90 100 80 Ponca City OK 33 56 38 46 / 0 0 80 80 Durant OK 40 61 41 49 / 0 0 90 100

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.