textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected for middle to late week across the area.

- Some elevated fire weather conditions possible across far west by Thursday into the weekend.

- Next chance for showers and storms arrives next Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

With drier air continuing to spread south in the wake of the cold front yesterday and clearing skies, expect a cool start to the day, especially across the north. However this same set up will aid in a quick warm up with temperatures rising into the 70s and low 80s by this afternoon. Winds will also be light, initially from the northeast, but will gradually shift to the southeast as a surface ridge axis translates southeast across the area.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

South to southwest winds Monday night and some moisture return will aid in keeping temperatures a bit warmer. Veered low level flow will also bring much warmer air into the area from the west during the day Monday as upper ridge begins to build east into the Plains. A surface front will approach northern Oklahoma by late in the day Tuesday with a pre-frontal thermal ridge to the south over northern into western Oklahoma. This will lead to very warm to hot temperatures across those areas by Tuesday afternoon (Highs in the low to mid 90s). Even central into south central and southeast Oklahoma will see highs Tuesday afternoon in the low to mid 80s.

This front will likely be a focus for afternoon convection, but mainly to our north and northeast as the aforementioned warm layer aloft and only modest moisture return will likely not be sufficient to overcome the cap that will be in place. Perhaps north central Oklahoma may have the best chance of seeing storm development, but even there chances remain less than 10-15%. As the front stalls near or just north of I-40 Tuesday night there may be a very low chance of a shower or storm near the boundary from central Oklahoma eastward.

Upper ridge will continue to translate east into the Plains on Wednesday as surface front washes out across the area with a return of south winds. However the low level thermal ridge will be shunted southward with the hottest temps Wednesday confined to southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. The remainder of the area will be in the 80s.

A few of models are showing an area of mid-level warm advection Wednesday night from central Kansas into central Oklahoma. Would not be completely surprised if we see some high-based showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night, even though the current forecast keeps that period dry. Will need to monitor this for possible inclusion in upcoming forecasts.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Larger scale upper trough will move onshore across the west Wednesday. As this occurs lee troughing will occur across the High Plains, which will aid in tightening the surface pressure gradient across the Plains and strong, gusty south winds will develop Thursday. Ahead of this longwave trough a lead wave will approach the area from the west and southwest. Although several models are showing some precip to our west across the higher terrain, moisture will be lacking further east to see much of anything other than some mid-level clouds and perhaps some virga across far western Oklahoma on Thursday.

Also at this time, depending on location of dryline and impacts of recent rains across far western Oklahoma's vegetation, some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may develop out across far western,northwestern parts of the state. These conditions may then linger into the weekend as temperatures across western Oklahoma remain in the mid/upper 90s to near 100 degrees into next weekend.

By late week and into the weekend a transition to more southwest flow begins to take shape and a more active weather pattern may return to the southern Plains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

IFR conditions are forecast for KDUA early Monday morning, and then lifting to VFR by mid-morning. Otherwise, light north winds become variable at times. Patchy fog is possible towards early morning near KWWR and KCSM but minimal reductions to visibility are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 80 55 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 56 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 79 54 95 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 78 53 88 61 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.