textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Hot & muggy conditions this upcoming week with heat indices near to above triple digits each day.

- Our first Heat Advisory for the season will be in effect Monday afternoon across parts of northern Oklahoma with heat indices there exceeding 105 degrees.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Monday across northwest Oklahoma then dry through Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The MCS is moving out of our southeastern CWA with much of it already in southeast Oklahoma. We will keep low storm POPs in for tonight across northcentral Oklahoma as the upper trough starts lifting into the U.S. Midwestern Region. A very remote potential for advection fog developing early to mid-morning Monday across southeast Oklahoma as suggested by the latest HREF. With a wet ground and increasing south winds advecting moisture the conditions could be favorable. However other guidance including DESI ensembles not buying it at this time so did not put it into the forecast due to very low probabilities. However the fog potential is notable enough for this discussion and will be passed on to the next shift should guidance change for the next forecast issuance.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Monday which will precede an afternoon Heat Advisory across parts of our area with widespread hot & muggy conditions.

Aloft, a large open trough will continue digging across the western half of the country including the Central Plains while the Southern Plains will remain under a ridge. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will track eastward across southern Kansas & northern Oklahoma where strong surface moisture will remain in place with a dryline extending southward across the Southern High Plains in a moderate up to strong (SBCAPE 3000 J/kg) unstable environment to the east across our forecast area. Most of our area should stay well capped although a weaker cap across northwest Oklahoma to a broken cap further west across the Oklahoma Panhandle where the weakening surface low will be in place. By late Monday afternoon a weak shortwave may develop in the ridge over the surface low where convection may start initiating. Should storms initiate over or into northern especially northwest Oklahoma where ascent is strongest they have the potential of becoming severe. Although overall chances are low we do have 20% storm POPs across northwest OK to 14% across the remainder of northern OKlahoma with a severe risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts across mainly northwest Oklahoma from late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.

South winds will increase with nocturnal low-level jets starting Monday becoming a bit windier due to a tightening pressure gradient and gusty afternoons (25-30 mph) after late morning mixing. We will see some moisture transport from this increasing southerly flow although NBM was advecting upper 70s dewpoint into our area which is a bit aggressive especially with calculating heat indices. As a result went slightly drier than NBM using the CONSMOS in the Monday afternoon dewpoint grids. Still will see Monday Heat Indices in the lower triple digits across our western and northern CWA with upper 90s into southeast Oklahoma.

Heating trend continues Monday with maximum sunshine during the afternoon and high temperatures in the 90s across much of our area. Our western CWA will be hottest in the upper 90s to lower triple digits across parts of northwest Oklahoma. Did go slightly warmer than NBM for Monday's MaxT using the CONSAll. With the hotter temperatures and increasing moisture did issue a 10-county Heat Advisory in effect Monday afternoon across a large portion of northern Oklahoma with heat indices between 105-108 degrees. This will be our first Heat Advisory for the season.

Hot and muggy but dry on Tuesday. However cirrus may dirty the upper ridge providing some cloud cover to keep afternoon temperatures slightly down below triple digit.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The mid/upper level flow flattens and becomes more zonal mid week. But with sunny skies, above average high temperatures are still expected Wednesday and Thursday. A large-scale trough projected to move across the northern and central plains Thursday will help push a cold front down the plains into Oklahoma on Thursday decreasing high temperatures and providing the next significant rain chances on Thursday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings are expected to develop late tonight, mainly along and east of I-35, then gradually lift in the morning. South winds will become breezy overnight for most locations. Some low level wind shear will be possible toward morning across northwest Oklahoma.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 92 75 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 73 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 102 75 98 / 0 0 20 0 Ponca City OK 72 92 77 93 / 30 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 90 76 90 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ005>007- 010>012-015>018.

TX...None.