textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Thursday across much of western and central OK and western north TX. - Cooler temperatures and improving fire conditions are expected Friday into the weekend and Monday with rain possible across southeast Oklahoma on Saturday.

- Unseasonably warmer temperatures and fire weather conditions returning Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 108 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Fire weather conditions will persist this afternoon with all but our southeastern CWA in a fire danger risk.

A dryline was stretched across southeast Oklahoma defining the fire risk area and may only slightly retreat overnight. RH values had a poor recovery overnight behind the dryline as those values decrease to a minimum of 10-20 percent this afternoon. Our denser cloud cover will stay across southeast Oklahoma near & east of the dryline with only few to scattered thin Cirrus with an abundance of sun warming our afternoon into the mid to upper 70s. Southwest surface winds this afternoon although a fairly weak pressure gradient will keep wind speeds around 10-15 mph. We may see winds back more southerly with wind speeds increasing a bit later this afternoon as our isobaric pattern starts tightening from a surface low approaching from our west. Winds not as strong as yesterday at our mixing heights but increasing 850 mb flow will produce 20-30 mph gusts as the afternoon progresses across most of our area although higher mixing to the mid-levels across northwest Oklahoma could produce slightly higher 35 to near 40 mph gusts. The gusty winds, unseasonably warm and very dry air will increase fire weather conditions with the highest (Critical) risk across northwest Oklahoma with Near Critical to Elevated risk across the rest of our area extending to the dry line. A Red Flag Warning will remain this afternoon through early evening across all of western and west- central Oklahoma and adjacent counties in western north Texas into portions of central through north-central Oklahoma. Our fire danger risk will lower an hour or two after sundown as RH values recover with diurnal cooling. The only changes made to the NBM was increasing the mid-afternoon wind speeds using the CONSMOS and slightly drier with afternoon dewpoints using 50% of the HRRR guidance.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 108 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Fire weather conditions will persist for one more day on Thursday then ending behind a cold front passage coming through late in the day. Overnight south winds expected to veer westerly late Thursday morning into the afternoon as a surface low tracks across the Central Plains/Kansas. The tightening pressure gradient will result in windier conditions with 20-25 mph sustained winds and 30-35 mph gusts. West winds will advect drier air off the higher plains/Panhandles further eastward across our area also increasing the fire danger risk further east as well. Previous Fire Weather Watch area has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Thursday afternoon across all but 2 of our counties. The aforementioned surface low will start pushing a dry cold front across our area toward Thursday evening shifting winds out of the north behind it. Although a Pacific-based system coming through we could tap into a colder air mass Thursday night with the surface high up in the Alberta Canadian Province. Will see Thursday (and Friday) night temperatures dropping to subfreezing (mid 20s to lower 30s in areas generally west and north of the I-44 corridor to upper 30s across southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas. High pressure then settles across our area on Friday with cooler more seasonably normal temperatures. Did go cooler than default NBM using the 50% percentile for Friday's MaxT.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 108 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Light rain possible Saturday across southeast Oklahoma. Cooler (near-average) temperatures will persist through Monday as a surface high to our north maintains northerly winds over the area. Temperatures will moderate back above average by Tuesday into the middle of next week as winds strengthen from the south once again. This could mean a return of elevated to near-critical fire conditions for at least parts of the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period in general, although there will also be very localized visibility restrictions and smoke aloft near and downwind of any wildfires that are occurring. Winds will be strong above the surface overnight creating areas of non-convective low-level wind shear across the area. Surface winds will veer to westerly overnight and become gusty after sunrise Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 52 67 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 48 66 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 51 71 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 40 59 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 47 65 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 56 74 41 63 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>019- 021>025-027>029-033>038.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for OKZ004>047- 050-051.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>085-087- 088.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for TXZ083>090.