textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Showers, drizzle, and fog all possible late tonight into tomorrow morning in southern/central Oklahoma.

- Above-normal temperatures expected through at least Wednesday.

- Slightly cooler weather arrives Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1157 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Temperatures will continue to warm above-normal this afternoon with sunny skies and light southwest winds. The exception to this warming trend is in parts of western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Here, high cloud cover continues to stream northeastward, but satellite also shows an expanding area of stratus just west of the I- 35 corridor. That stratus regime is the leading edge of a zone of mid-to-upper 50s dewpoints that are advecting in.

That advection zone will become more widespread along the I-44 and I- 35 corridors tonight as southerly surface winds continue to expand. With westerlies at both 850 and 700 mb, the zone of warm advection will be quite shallow. Still, there is a signal on short-range models for a couple of showers to develop across southeast Oklahoma toward daybreak. Furthermore, increasing saturation/positive dewpoint advection late in the nighttime period will increase the chance for fog and drizzle across parts of western north Texas, southern Oklahoma, and central Oklahoma.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1157 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the coming period. This occurs as the persistent trough to our south finally weakens and gets absorbed into a belt of westerly subtropical flow over the Gulf Coast. With that belt driving a surface high over Louisiana and an emerging surface low over the northern Plains from the mid-latitude jet, our area will be within a zone of southwest surface winds favored for overperforming temperatures and clearing skies. Expect highs to reach the mid-70s across most of the area.

On Wednesday, the mid-latitude jet will dive sharply southeastward across the Mississippi Valley. This will drive the surface low with it and bring a classic weak northwest flow cold front to our area during the daytime. The antecedent airmass across the Plains is quite warm. Therefore, while temperatures on Wednesday will be "cooler", they won't necessarily be "cool" for mid-November.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

By Thursday into Friday, a longwave trough is forecast to develop across the eastern half of the country. As a result, a stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. This will bring cooler weather for Thursday and Friday with temperatures likely closer to or even slightly below average (mid 50s to mid 60s deg F).

The cooldown will likely be brief with northwest flow aloft. This is because when the Southern Plains is in northwest flow, we are usually on the edge of downslope warming off the high terrain to the north and west. So after a cooldown, temperatures can quickly rise as that downslope-warmed air mass moves into the area from the northwest. As a result, warmer weather is expected by the weekend.

Low rain chances return by Sunday into Monday as a trough is forecast to approach the Plains from the southwest. However, there is wide variation among deterministic models and their ensemble members on the exact track of the wave (e.g., some members have a southerly track across South Texas). Therefore, the rain chances are only ~20 to 30% at this time.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 10Z. Conditions will be favorable for fog Tuesday morning with all terminals (except KWWR) potentially reducing to an MVFR category after 10Z. Visibilities in denser fog may further lower after 12Z potentially reducing all terminals (except KWWR) to an IFR to LIFR category for periods up through 16Z. Surface winds will gradually increase out of the south around 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts in western Oklahoma, then go light and southerly after 00Z. By 16Z surface winds will increase south-southwesterly at 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 53 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 71 53 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 56 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 57 77 58 / 0 20 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.