textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Record heat likely Wednesday into Thursday with near-critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Cooler Friday into Saturday.

- No significant chance for precipitation this week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The western extent of yesterday's cold front has pushed well into parts of central and southern Texas, but has become nearly stationary across northeast Texas. So, this front will not scour out the mid and upper 60 dewpoint temperatures along the Texas Coast. Breezy northeast surface winds behind the front in Oklahoma and northern Texas will decrease and become more easterly during the afternoon. The cooler temperatures and lighter winds will certainly improve fire weather conditions for at least a day or two.

A thin band of mid to upper level clouds across southern Oklahoma late this morning, is expected to drift southward and decrease during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, high clouds are expect to increase within northwest flow aloft.

The circulation around a surface high over the Upper Ohio Valley will keep our air mass relatively dry through tonight, but that will certainly change on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Southerly surface flow will return on Tuesday and will become a little breezy by afternoon. Near-surface moisture will improve throughout the day as well, especially across portion of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Despite afternoon highs warming into the mid 70s-mid 80s humidity will generally remain at or above 30 percent.

With a mid and upper-level ridge expanding and building east, another round of summer-like temperatures (likely record breaking) will return to the southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. For Wednesday, a southerly wind is not expected to be overly strong, 15- 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph. However, with receptive fuels and humidity near or below 20 percent, elevated fire weather conditions will develop (mainly western Oklahoma and northern Texas).

Surface winds will increase on Thursday and will likely have more of a southwesterly component. This will occur as another cold front approaches northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon. Thursday will also be the hottest day of the week with afternoon highs warming into the mid and upper 90s (triple digit heat possible across far west central/northwestern Oklahoma). Thursday afternoon appears to bring yet another day of near-critical to perhaps critical fire weather conditions. A southward moving cold front late Thursday afternoon and evening will create another hazard for those battling wildfires in the region.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

This will probably sound like a broken record, but Thursday will be hot. High temperatures on Thursday are currently expected to be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday with highs expected to be in the 90s areawide and pushing triple digits in the southwest. The upper ridge begins to flatten and a broad trough moves east across Canada. On the back side of this broad upper trough, a 1035+ mb surface high over the Canadian Prairies will shift southeast toward the upper Mississippi Valley and a cold front will move down the Plains. In general, models generally push this front into Kansas on Thursday... not far enough south to bring cooler weather in (yet), but close enough the the pressure gradient increases and surface winds increase. The increased winds and humidity values potentially falling below 20 percent on Thursday afternoon will bring near-critical fire weather conditions across western and central sections of the forecast area.

Models expect the cold front to move through the area on Thursday night, and we finally get another reprieve from the summer-like temperatures. Highs on Friday will again be close to seasonal normals. Although temperatures cool, Friday could be similar to yesterday in that gusty northeast winds and low humidity in the post-frontal airmass can create near-critical fire weather conditions again.

The main chances of rain near/behind the front still look to be northeast of the forecast area, but NBM/WPC does maintain a very small area of 20 percent POPs in north central Oklahoma on Thursday night/Friday morning. So while there are some POPs in the forecast grids, the chances are still quite low and any precipitation that does develop will likely be light, so no significant help is expected to our ongoing drought situation. According to the latest drought monitor, 97 percent of the forecast area is in at least moderate drought and 57 percent is in at least severe drought. These values will not improve this week.

Seasonable temperatures continue Saturday before temperatures begin warming again Sunday. High pressure will be settling in across the Midwest which will continue to veer our surface winds northeast by 18Z then

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds throughout the TAF period. Some low VFR, possibly MVFR, ceilings will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday primarily at KDUA, KOKC, and KOUN. Winds will gradually shift towards the E and then eventually the SE and S throughout the TAF periods. Wind speeds will also gradually decrease from north to south across the area later this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 51 78 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 46 82 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 51 85 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 41 80 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 75 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 78 59 87 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.