textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- A few storms may be possible late Sunday afternoon/evening, particularly in north central Oklahoma.

- Hot temperatures expected Sunday & Monday.

- Rain/storm chances return Monday & persist through the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Summer has arrived on the Southern Plains today with 500 mb heights soaring into the upper 580s. In conjunction with south-southwest surface winds and a reasonably dry airmass behind the dryline, a stout low-level thermal ridge is already taking shape. This will allow temperatures to approach 100 degrees from western north Texas toward northwest Oklahoma, with slightly lower temperatures but greater humidity to the east. All told, wet-bulb globe temperature risks will range from "Moderate" to "High" this afternoon. This will be the primary weather concern for outdoor interests.

It is worth noting that at least a conditional risk for storm development exists late in the afternoon into the evening. The likeliest location for storms to develop would be in north central Oklahoma at the fringe of the punch of drier air moving in from the low-level thermal ridge. Coincidentally, there is a boundary noted from Payne County eastward on satellite from last night's storms in Kansas. The environment north of the boundary will destabilize this afternoon and a storm or two is possible before moving off into WFO TSA/ICT's areas. However, rising heights will likely act to curtail storm coverage, with sunset abolishing whatever convection does develop.

Heat stress will continue tonight as lows fail to drop below 72 across most of the area, particularly as winds abate some.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Heat is the name of the game again tomorrow with temperatures expected to soar into the 97-101 range west of I-35 again. Unlike today, there won't be a low-level thermal ridge responsible for the near-record heat. Instead, we'll see compressional warming beneath a near-590 ridge directly overhead, with surface winds only being a light southerly in response to weak lee troughing. With that considered, heat risk will actually be higher tomorrow with lighter winds, consistent sunshine, and the ever-present humidity. Heat headlines may become necessary for some of our southeastern counties (though it is rather borderline).

A complex of storms is likely across southern Kansas (and perhaps far northern Oklahoma) tomorrow night as the low-level jet really kicks across the high terrain. Given the shape of the ridge, the subsequent MCS may be of the variety that begins to dive southward after daybreak on Tuesday, perhaps bringing outflow and storm chances to our eastern counties - and also introducing uncertainty into temperature forecasts for Tuesday.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Models show the upper ridge shifting eastward towards the middle part of the week with potential shortwaves/disturbances moving across the central/southern Plains through the end of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the rest of the week into the weekend. Temperatures will moderate a bit Wednesday and continue through the rest of the work week with highs back in the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions with mainly light south to southwest winds are expected to prevail through today and tonight. Wind direction will be more variable across northern Oklahoma due to an outflow boundary in the area. Very low chances for an isolated thunderstorm or two along a corridor stretching from north central Oklahoma to southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 98 71 93 / 10 10 20 10 Hobart OK 72 100 70 95 / 10 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 73 98 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 69 99 69 92 / 10 10 20 30 Ponca City OK 71 94 70 88 / 20 10 30 10 Durant OK 76 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.