textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Cooler temperatures and scattered to numerous storms expected late Wednesday into Thursday. Strong to severe storms possible across northern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Additional strong thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon across the southern half of the area.

- Heat tries to rebound this weekend with low rain chances each day.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A cold front is expected to move into northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon (from roughly 2-4 pm). Temperatures won't be impacted by this frontal boundary until much later in the evening and into Thursday. That being said, dangerous heat is expected this afternoon across most of the area, with heat indices of 105-110 F possible. All 3 climate sites have the potential to see record high temperatures this afternoon, with the best chance at OKC. A heat advisory will remain in effect from 12 pm - 7 pm this evening. What this boundary is expected to bring is showers and thunderstorms, at least initially, across northern Oklahoma during the afternoon. The juxtaposition between the frontal boundary timing and peak heating, with allow for thunderstorms to initiate in an environment that will support strong-to-severe wind gusts. This activity is expected to shift southward through the evening.

There is a signal in the short term models that we may see diurnally- driven storms across western Oklahoma down to western north Texas this afternoon, but there is more uncertainty with this activity. Nevertheless, if any storms do develop in these areas ahead of the cold front, they will be in an environment that will support strong winds.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Numerous rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday morning through the afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary as it tries to move southward through the day. Cloud cover and cooler air are expected for most locations along and north of I-40 tomorrow. There continues to be increased confidence (60-80%) that high temperatures behind the front (north of I-40) will not exceed 90 F in the afternoon. Areas south of the front, will see some relief of the heat (due to the cloud cover), but will still likely see mid to upper 90s in the afternoon. Coverage/strength of storms could help push the boundary further south earlier in the day. By the late morning to early afternoon, strong to severe storms are expected along the frontal boundary. Generally speaking, the southern half of the area looks to have the best chance at seeing strong to severe storms through the afternoon hours.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Thursday night into Friday morning, ending from west to east. Temperatures will rebound on Friday, and most (if not all of us) will see highs get back into the 90s. Portions of southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas will see afternoon highs in the triple digits.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Nearby surface ridging and southerly surface flow will keep temperatures hot over the weekend. Upper 90s to lower 100s appear likely with some risk of reaching heat advisory criteria across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas (particularly on Saturday).

Being on the edge of the upper high, we will maintain at least low PoPs, particularly in northern and eastern Oklahoma. Deterministic models have shown consistency in depicting an MCS Saturday night, though its currently forecast trajectory would mainly impact eastern Oklahoma.

High confidence in hot temperatures and low rain chances now extends through Monday afternoon. After this, confidence drops off dramatically with the possible arrival of a cold front sometime early to mid week next week. Models vary greatly in timing and strength of the front. Continued hot and dry weather remains the more likely scenario (70-80%), though the outlier solutions would bring substantial cooling.

Day

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A few showers across the southwest and south central parts of Oklahoma southward into north Texas will dissipate in the next few hours. Farther north, showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist and even become more widespread as we go through the night and into the day Thursday. Some erratic and gusty winds and lower visibility could accompany the stronger storms The associated front will bring moisture in behind it and will create the potential for MVFR ceilings overnight across the north and spreading south during the day Thursday. Currently DUA is expected to remain VFR throughout the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 88 69 93 / 30 80 50 30 Hobart OK 76 94 70 99 / 20 60 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 77 99 73 101 / 0 80 20 10 Gage OK 69 87 65 97 / 60 70 20 0 Ponca City OK 70 82 66 90 / 80 90 30 20 Durant OK 76 99 74 98 / 0 60 30 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-010>013- 015>020-022>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.