textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Our heatwave will persist with unseasonably hot & dangerous heating through much of next week.

- Very low chances for rain on Thursday across southeast & northwest Oklahoma but otherwise dry through the forecast.

- Fire weather will continue to be a concern with the ongoing drought and dry fuels.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A Heat Advisory will be in effect this afternoon across portions of central and most of southern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas due to heat indices between 105 to 108 degrees expected. Will be expanding the previous advisory area to include portions of central Oklahoma from I-40 northward.

Increasing surface moisture from what is now Tropical Depression Edouard which came ashore across eastern Texas had created a moisture gradient bisecting our Oklahoma/Texas forecast area with the higher dewpoints & muggiest air to the east. Although expecting widespread at least scattered CU this afternoon still expecting unseasonably hot air temperatures near to lower triple digits with our southerly low-level flow. Will trend this afternoons MaxT only slightly hotter than NBM using the CONSMOS nudged at 50%. The aforementioned moisture advection will increase heat indices well in triple digits between 100 to 108 degrees with the latter extremes in the advisory areas. Will need to monitor heat indices this afternoon should the advisory need to be expanded. Skies expected to clear tonight across most our area although increasing cloudiness across southeast Oklahoma from the aforementioned decaying tropical system.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Our main upper flow will remain in a blocking pattern across the western and northern U.S. with deep longwave troughing across the west and a second trough across eastern Canada through the U.S. New England states. The entire Great Plains will remain pinched between these two circulations with the ridging strongest across the Southern Plains through the U.S. Southeast. Certainly not expecting this pattern to change in the short term keeping our heatwave & mostly dry pattern persisting keeping our ongoing drought at severe to exceptional intensities. Some uncertainty with Thursdays heating across the eastern half of our forecast area as pressure heights decrease generally east of the I-35 corridor due to the closed upper high across the Southeastern U.S. shifting slightly further east. Latest NBM run appears to have a handle on this "less hot" air temperatures trend east of I-35 for Thursday. Southeast Oklahoma may see denser stratiform cloud cover during Thursday morning and afternoon further impacting solar heating there. As far as rain chances Thursday, will maintain a 15-20% chance for rain across the far southeast of our forecast area due the weak surface low remnants of "Edouard" coming up from eastern Texas. By the afternoon increasing but weak instability could result in an isolated thunderstorm across far southeast Oklahoma. Uncertainty is high but also add barely mentionable POPs for isolated storms across northwest Oklahoma for Thursday afternoon as well. Expecting strong surface mixing and uncapped across northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon with instability ample for weak convection which some of the CAMs are suggesting. As far as heating headlines for Thursday, will have a similar Heat Advisory across portions of central and much of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas due to heat indices between 105-107 degrees expected.

Heatwave continues into Friday and perhaps hotter east of I-35 as the upper high over the Southeastern U.S. returns further west increasing pressure heights. Will likely see a more widespread Heat Advisory Friday with heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Models show the upper high shifting back to the west with the upper ridge over the region through the weekend into next week. This will continue the hot, humid, and dry weather into next week. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 90s to low 100s into the middle of next week with triple digit heat indices across the area and values of 105F to 110F across portions of the fa each day. Heat headlines will also likely persist across at least portions of the fa into next week.

The moisture is forecast to remain in the area which will keep fire weather conditions from becoming elevated. However, as previously mentioned, the very dry fuels will remain susceptible to wildfires and will likely continue to do so until the area receives some much needed rainfall. With that in mind, everyone needs to continue to be cautious and take steps to prevent fire starts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions continue through the rest of the afternoon. Some fair-weather cumulus development is likely, but cloud bases will be 7,000 feet and up. Tonight, the remnants of TS Edouard approach from the south. This will bring winds to a more southeasterly direction for the morning, and it is more likely than not that a zone of MVFR stratus develops in south central Oklahoma and perhaps into central Oklahoma/western north Texas tomorrow morning.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 74 103 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 102 72 102 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 73 95 73 98 / 10 20 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ006-007-011- 012-017>019-024-025-034>039-041-043>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013- 018>020-024>026-032-036>039-041>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ085-086- 088>090.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.