textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Cooler, seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend with a widespread freeze Saturday night and Sunday night.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will likely result in fire weather concerns by early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The cold front that moved through yesterday has brought a return to more typical February temperatures this morning. Continued cold air advection will allow for a freeze across much of Oklahoma. Across southeast Oklahoma and western north Teas, it will probably stay above freezing for most locations. Even so, it would not be surprising for some localized areas of freezing temperatures with the dry air mass in place.

The aforementioned cold front will stall today and go through frontolysis as a shortwave trough approaches from the west with cyclogenesis across the High Plains. As a result, surface winds will veer toward the east/southeast this afternoon.

With the cooler air mass in the front's wake, seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 40s across the northern Oklahoma to the low 60s deg F across western north Texas.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

As the shortwave trough passes by Friday night, the attendant surface low will move to southeast across Texas with winds backing toward the north as a cold front advances to the southeast. There is low chance (~20%) of some light precipitation (rain or snow) near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Any precipitation will be minimal with no impacts.

Cold air advection due to breezy northerly winds in the front's wake will result in another cool (but seasonable) day on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s deg F. Light winds, clear skies, and dry air Saturday night into Sunday morning will provide an excellent environment for radiational cooling. As a result, a widespread freeze is expected by Sunday morning.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday with seasonable temperatures and another freeze likely Sunday night.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures are expected to return by early next week with rising mid-level heights and a return to southerly winds. With the ongoing drought conditions and receptive/dry fuels, fire weather will become an increasing concern once again.

Monday will be transition day with the warmest weather across the southwest, where winds will shift to the south the earliest in the day. Elevated fire weather conditions will be confined near the 100th meridian across far western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas--where the strongest winds are forecast.

By Tuesday, the low-level thermal ridge will expand to the east and the surface gradient will strengthen as a surface low develops in the High Plains. As a result, high temperatures will be 70s to near 80 deg F (~15 deg above-normal) with breezy southerly winds. Even with the southerly winds, moisture advection appears limited with afternoon relative humidity values between 15 to 30%. This dry return flow (DRF) pattern will likely set the stage for elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

The warm, above-normal temperatures will likely continue into Wednesday with even the 10th percentile of probabilistic guidance indicating temperatures ~10 to 15 deg above normal. As a result, at least elevated fire weather conditions will continue on Wednesday.

By Thursday, forecast uncertainty increases with the potential of a cold front in close proximity of the Southern Plains. Probabilistic guidance indicates a ~25 deg F spread between the 10th to 90th percentile. Even so, the most likely scenario at this time is above-normal temperatures continuing across the area.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mid and high clouds will move across northern Oklahoma this morning and afternoon, as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Northerly surface winds will become east and southeast, as surface low pressure tracks across southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle. A northerly wind will return by 12Z Saturday. There is a low chance of precipitation across far northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening, but not enough to mention in the WWR/PNC TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 51 32 50 28 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 54 28 52 26 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 35 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 50 21 51 21 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 46 28 49 25 / 10 20 0 0 Durant OK 58 42 59 31 / 10 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.