textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Low shower and storm chances through Friday, mostly across portions of northern Oklahoma. Marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot temperatures continue into week with triple digit heat and at least a moderate heat risk.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The low level jet, as it extends across the panhandles and curves eastward into Kansas, will be the primary driver of convection during these pre-dawn hours. Expectation is for most of this to stay just outside our northern and western borders through about 7am, but there is a very low chance a shower or storm could sneak over.

As we move into the post-dawn morning hours, there's some signal that scattered showers and storms in eastern Kansas will start to migrate southward into north central and northeast Oklahoma. That said, uncertainty is moderately high for spatial extent and longevity of this convection.

As the shortwave rounds the ridge, additional showers and storms will be possible tonight, starting around I-40 and migrating southward through the night. CAMs suggest highest chances in the panhandles and eastern Oklahoma with a gap in between (however, model agreement is low). Downburst winds will be the main hazard.

Heat will once again be a main impact today, and the aforementioned rain with its associate cloud cover will once again be a key uncertainty (especially over northern Oklahoma). A heat advisory remains in effect for most of central and southern Oklahoma and parts of north Texas.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Hot and mainly dry Saturday as the ridge begins to move back in. Latest models lag the upper shortwave, giving us some lingering low chances for rain across southeast Oklahoma as late as Saturday afternoon. They're also subtly backing off on mixing out dewpoints meaning Saturday's heat indices will likely be in the advisory range across a broad area again. We'll still be watching for elevated fire weather in western Oklahoma, though that potential seems a bit more limited.

Sunday is the new Saturday as our forecast is now showing the first day of the week as when rain chances are gone and dewpoints start to mix out a little bit. The result: slightly lower heat indices and slightly more elevated fire weather out west.

Day

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Ridging will keep us hot and dry through about mid week next week with some modest potential for elevated fire weather in western Oklahoma most days. As we enter the mid week period, the ridge starts to shift south, bringing rain chances back to northern Oklahoma. This will also bring the potential for cooler temperatures late in the week, though uncertainty is high at this range.

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR category will prevail through the period. While scattered rain/thunder remains likely across region, spatiotemporal information remains rather uncertain. The most likely solution involves pockets of activity drifting southward from northern into central Oklahoma on Friday morning, with potential for renewed development into the afternoon and evening towards the Red River. For now, only terminals with "highest" confidence have wx/PROB30 mention, though the potential for all terminals to see at least a brief period of reduced vis and gusty winds is possible on Friday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 74 100 75 / 20 10 0 0 Hobart OK 102 73 103 75 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 102 75 103 75 / 0 20 10 0 Gage OK 102 69 102 74 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 97 72 100 76 / 50 10 0 0 Durant OK 100 76 100 75 / 10 30 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.