textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Rain is likely across south central/southeastern Oklahoma today with some potential for heavy rainfall.

- Seasonable temperatures continue today.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

An area of rain across north Texas into far southern Oklahoma will continue to expand to the north as ascent associated with a subtle wave lifts into south central and southeastern Oklahoma later this morning.

With anomalously high precipitable water values present (~1.8 to 1.9 inches), some locally heavy rainfall is possible. The 90th percentile (i.e., reasonable worst case scenario) among convective-allowing models indicate the potential for ~1 to 2 inches of rainfall near the Red River. Given the moisture present, these potential higher-end totals do not seem unreasonable. Although these totals are unlikely for most, a few isolated locations could potentially receive this amount of rainfall with some flooding risk. Scattered showers may make it as far northwest as the I-44 corridor later this morning, but the heaviest rainfall should be confined closer to the Red River. These showers may linger through the afternoon before the wave exits to the east.

With the wave lifting northward from Texas, abundant cloud cover will likely persist along and southeast of I-44 today. Seasonable temperatures for early October are expected once again with highs generally in the 70s to near 80 deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Some patchy fog is expected early Sunday morning with winds becoming light and variable with a saturated boundary layer.

Otherwise, decreasing cloud cover on Sunday will result in a warmer afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s deg F. Similar conditions are expected on Monday. Northerly winds both days will keep temperatures from rising too quickly even with more sunshine. Dry conditions are expected both days.

With the relatively dry air mass still in place with northerly winds, low temperatures Monday morning and Tuesday morning will be in the 50s deg F for most locations. Some spots across northern Oklahoma may even see lows in the upper 40s deg F.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next week as the westerlies retreat northward with a strengthening low- level thermal ridge and the return to southerly winds.

Temperature spread among bias-corrected probabilistic guidance remains minimal, with even the 10th percentile indicating warm, above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance point to an elongated mid- level ridge (~585-587 dam) as the primary influence of the weather across the Southern Plains. High temperatures toward the end of the week are forecast to climb toward or even exceed 90 deg F.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low ceilings from stratus will persist through 00Z impacting our terminals. Ceilings over our terminals in northern and western Oklahoma could lower to a MVFR category through 18Z, then scatter to a VFR category at least through 09Z. The only exception is terminal KWWR which should stay in a VFR category at least through 10Z. Ceilings across our terminals in central through southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas will likely remain in a MVFR category up through 00Z before ceilings scatter. Terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma will be the most impacted with very low ceilings alternating from an IFR to LIFR category through the entire forecast period, in addition to some reductions in visibility due to light rain showers. After 09Z widespread radiational fog may develop reducing visibilities across any or all of our terminals. Surface winds will stay light & northerly at 5-10 kts then go light & variable after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 59 81 55 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 58 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 60 84 57 / 30 0 0 0 Gage OK 77 54 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 56 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 77 63 85 59 / 60 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.