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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot conditions for the upcoming weekend.

- There is chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Friday with a front.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The heatwave continues this afternoon with highs expected to climb into the triple digits across most of the fa. Even higher heat index values are also expected this afternoon with values ranging from 105 to 109 across much of the area. However, some locations could climb as high as 110 or higher, especially in SE parts of the fa. Will continue with current heat advisory and extreme heat warning which is in effect until 9 pm this evening. Another warm night is expected tonight with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

As for rain, showers/storms that develop west of the fa may approach far NW OK late this evening but the better chance for showers/storms will begin late tonight/early Friday across parts of northern OK.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A brief pattern shift is expected late this week into the weekend with the high pressure currently centered over NM shifting west today into Friday as a shortwave moves SE across the northern/central Plains into the Midwest. This shortwave is expected to cause a front to move south into and across at least parts of the area Friday.

Showers/storms will be possible with the front as it moves southward. However, with the better synoptic forcing expected to remain N and NE of the area, chances for rain are still low (20-40%) with convergence along the boundary and heating as sources for lift. Storms Friday afternoon/evening could produce gusty winds with decent DCAPE values expected to develop Friday afternoon. The rain chances are expected to end Friday evening/night.

As for the heat, it looks like there will be one more day on Friday with the very hot temperatures, at least in parts of the fa. Models show that the "cooler" air may lag behind the front/wind shift so temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s across the area. There is some uncertainty to the temperature forecast especially in northern OK due to the timing of the front and extent of cloud cover/rain on Friday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will definitely be hot with low-level thermal ridge or "pre-frontal torch" expected to develop. Heat indices will also continue to be 105+, with the most likely area for this to occur south of I-40. A heat advisory is in effect for areas generally along and south of I-40 for Friday afternoon/evening. However, the heat advisory may need to be expanded further north if the impacts or timing from the uncertainties mentioned earlier are not realized in the current forecast.

The "cooler" air does eventually move into the region leading to not as hot conditions over the weekend. Lows Friday night are expected to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area with even cooler (mid 60s to low 70s) Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will be around normal for the first of August with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s in north central OK to the upper 90s in western north TX.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The cooler/less hot weather will continue into Sunday with north to northeast winds and temperatures similar to Saturday.

A warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft and associated thermal ridge expanding eastward toward the Southern Plains. Hot, above-normal temperatures are likely to return by the middle part of next week with dry conditions.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Some low level cumulus clouds are developing this afternoon across central into southern Oklahoma and into north Texas. However, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the period with southerly breezes through this evening. A cold front will push south across northern Oklahoma by mid to late morning tomorrow, so sites will begin to veer to the southwest by early tomorrow morning ahead of the boundary.

There is also a low chance for some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm to develop during the early morning hours across northern Oklahoma. A PROB30 was utilized at WWR, PNC, SWO where confidence was greatest despite the uncertainty in exact timing. Additional scattered showers and storms may be possible through the morning hours tomorrow into central and southern Oklahoma, but confidence was too low for a mention during this TAF issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 100 72 92 / 10 20 20 0 Hobart OK 78 102 72 95 / 10 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 104 75 98 / 0 10 30 0 Gage OK 73 98 67 93 / 30 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 76 98 70 90 / 40 30 10 0 Durant OK 79 102 77 95 / 0 10 30 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042-044>047- 050-051.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ022>048- 050>052.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ043-048- 052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.