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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 456 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Although perhaps not as strong as last night, there is an area of warm air advection that develops overnight across central sections of Oklahoma up into Kansas. This should result in at least a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms after midnight. Currently most likely area would be near and just east of I-35 corridor. The NAM NEST is the most aggressive, while others have almost nothing, so will lean somewhere is the middle as far as chances late tonight into Saturday morning. Other isolated activity farther west and south appears possible as well.

In addition to this, models hint at the potential for another complex of storms moving out of Kansas around 8-10am and then moving south and southeast across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma during the day Saturday, skirting the OKC metro area. Although inconsistencies in the models keep overall confidence rather low. Much like yesterday, this will keep a fairly large area with at least a period of cloud cover and possibly precip through the morning before possibly clearing out in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb, just how high is the question. There could be a tight temperature gradient somewhere near or just west of I-35 Saturday afternoon.

Some models are redeveloping convection during the afternoon on residual boundaries from morning activity, mainly near and south of I-40. With the very hot surface temperatures and inverted-V type soundings expected by afternoon. A few severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

This will also make it a difficult forecast with regards to heat headlines, but will lean a little more liberally with the potential and have added several counties farther north and east into the advisory. Still a chance that a some counties may need to be added as things evolve today and a few might even need to be upgraded, but confidence at this point is not there.

Will also need to continue to watch fire weather conditions across western and southwestern Oklahoma into north Texas where the heat, low afternoon humidity and stressed vegetation will result in some areas of elevated fire weather. Possible outflow from convection will also be a concern. This outflow could also be a focus for additional afternoon and evening convective development across southern Oklahoma into north Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

After the evening potential storms, the remainder of Saturday night and Sunday look to be dry as upper ridge tries to reassert itself further east across Oklahoma and north Texas. Any residual boundary will likely wash out or quickly lift back northward early Sunday leaving only north central Oklahoma to remain in the 90s Sunday afternoon with the remainder of the area once again climbing into the triple digits with southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas possible above 110 degrees.

Winds will be rather light (10-15mph) Sunday, but the extreme heat and low humidity will again create elevated fire weather conditions, especially across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon.

The upper ridge remains the dominate feature as we go into Monday, meaning very little chance of precip. Additionally the models are showing a surface low that develops in northwest Oklahoma and then drifts east and southeast through the day with a trailing surface boundary. A lot will depend on the location of this boundary through the day, but along and south of it we will see a pre-frontal torch with higher 850mb temperatures and stronger surface and low level westerly winds. This will heighten the fire weather concerns Monday afternoon in these areas with near critical conditions developing.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma.

Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across north central and east central Oklahoma this morning, affecting KPNC and KSWO. Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of the area. A weak boundary will shift across the area, causing winds to back to the east-southeast across most terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 103 74 102 78 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 108 75 108 80 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 108 78 109 82 / 30 30 0 0 Gage OK 102 71 104 76 / 10 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 97 71 95 73 / 30 0 10 10 Durant OK 103 76 106 80 / 30 30 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044>046-050.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.