textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Dry with near record to record-breaking temperatures through Saturday.

- Cold front arrives on Sunday with below-normal temperatures on Monday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected in the west on Sunday due to breezy conditions, and Monday (and potentially Tuesday) due to low humidity.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1257 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The fog potential early this morning is lower than recent mornings, but there is some potential in the southeast with high humidity.

A surface front approaching the Kansas-Oklahoma border will move south into the area today. Although this will bring cooler temperatures this morning in the north thanks to lower dewpoints, this airmass is not significantly cooler and highs today will remain well above normal. The front will likely not reach north Texas and portions of southern Oklahoma, but dry westerly downslope winds will keep temperatures hot in the south. Daily high temperature records are likely safe today as records are quite high for today (88 in Wichita Falls, 83 in Lawton, 76 in OKC).

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1257 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Low-level winds become southerly again Friday night and hot temperatures (by late December standards) are expected again Saturday. Winds will have a dry southwesterly component and any higher dewpoints will be confined to the southeast. Daily records highs are expected to be beaten solidly on Saturday (records for 12/27 are 77 at Wichita Falls, 76 at Lawton and 75 at OKC).

But... changes are on the way. A cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma overnight Saturday night moving through the forecast area Sunday morning and afternoon. This initial front will bring somewhat cooler air into the area, but highs will still be warm on Sunday afternoon, although NBM forecast does seem to be lagging the more recent models on how quickly cool air will move into the area on Sunday and we have lowered the forecast highs from the NBM.

Gusty northerly winds will develop and lower dewpoints/humidity will move in behind this front which will create some elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma. Some showers are possible in southeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and Sunday night near or behind this front, but rainfall is not expected to be widespread.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1257 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Much cooler air will begin to filter into the area on Monday as a longwave trough moves from the Plains toward the Great Lakes region and deep northerly flow develops over the Plains. A 1040+ mb surface high moves from Saskatchewan into the Dakotas on Sunday/Sunday night and the surface ridge and colder air starts poking into the southern Plains on Sunday night/Monday. High temperatures on Monday will actually be below normal. But these below-normal temperatures will be short- lived as an upper ridge builds in the western U.S. and the strongest northwesterly winds aloft point toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region keeping the coldest air to our northeast.

The airmass moving in on Monday is of continental origin and is very dry. Dewpoints on Monday are expected to be in the single digits. This will allow Monday afternoon humidity to become very low - 20 percent or lower across the west. So despite the cooler temperatures, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma and western north Texas due to the low humidity. Some areas of the west may see elevated fire weather conditions again on Tuesday, primarily due to continued low RH.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the region overnight and on Friday. Low-level wind shear will continue to be a concern in the near-term, as a weak front/wind shift progresses southeastward across Oklahoma.

Daytime conditions on Friday will feature patchy high ceilings and gradually veering surface winds as the weak front "washes out" into the early evening.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 55 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 83 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 49 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 81 59 80 64 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.