textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Cold front arrives end of the week and brings some relief over the weekend.

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms (northern Oklahoma) starting tonight.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The increase today in high clouds today is associated with a shortwave trough passing over Kansas and along the northwest periphery of the ridge. This is leading to slightly less hot temperatures today, particularly over northern Oklahoma. Still, we expect heat advisory criteria to be met area-wide this afternoon.

The surface trough axis over Kansas is forecast to evolve into a quasi-stationary frontal boundary tonight and push into parts of north-central Oklahoma as the shortwave drops southward. The frontal boundary will be most evident by the increased dewpoint temperatures behind the boundary.

A complex of decaying thunderstorms (and associated outflow boundary) is expected to descend from Colorado and approach northwest late Oklahoma tonight early Wednesday morning. There is a very low chance (10%) of light showers/sprinkles tomorrow morning over northwest Oklahoma from this activity. Farther east and closer to the stationary boundary, we could see low clouds develop over northern and central Oklahoma tonight as moisture pools ahead of the boundary. Additionally, there is a very low chance of light showers early Wednesday morning for the northern half of Oklahoma as WAA increases atop this boundary.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The outflow boundary is prog'd to arrive in northwest Oklahoma on Wednesday morning and effectively pushes the weak surface low, that has lingered over the Oklahoma panhandle, eastward. While the outflow boundary will largely mix out as winds return to the south by afternoon. However, some elevated baroclinicity along this zone in northwest Oklahoma could be the focal area for shower/storm attempts on Wednesday afternoon as another shortwave descends from the high plains. Mainly virga (along with gusty winds) and some sprinkles appear to be the most likely outcome, though. Otherwise, high temperatures will be less hot on Wednesday and range from the upper- 90's (Kay County) to near the century mark (central) to near 105 (north- central to southwest OK).

As low-level WAA intensifies on Wednesday night, there is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-40. Additional mid-/high-level clouds will continue to propagate into our area from Kansas on Thursday. Despite this, hot conditions continue with widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 on Thursday.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate a pattern change is likely by the upcoming weekend as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward on the northeast periphery of the ridge. The ridge will retrograde to the west, which will bring in stronger northerly flow aloft into the Southern Plains.

An initial cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday morning. However, the cold air advection with the initial wind shift will likely be limited/negligible. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the front with the highest chance across north central Oklahoma. Highs Friday afternoon will likely still reach the 100s deg F across most locations (unless shower/storm coverage is more widespread.

A stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward in tandem with the shortwave trough late Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler/less hot weather into the area. Even with a stronger front, the most appreciable cold air advection will remain to our northeast. As a result, the most significant cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. Across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas, the cool down will be more limited. With synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast, rain chances are very low/near zero.

High temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to range from the low 90s (north central Oklahoma) to around 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas). This relative cool down will continue into Sunday before warmer weather returns on Monday.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Light southeast winds will shift to the southwest Wednesday morning and then shift back to the southeast tomorrow morning. Will continue to be abundant middle and high clouds with some high-based afternoon cu. There is an outside chance of a shower or thunderstorm late tonight and again Wednesday afternoon, but chances are too low to include any mention in the TAFs at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 78 99 77 99 / 10 20 20 10 Durant OK 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-017>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.