textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Rain and storm chances increase this afternoon and evening across central and southern Oklahoma. A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds may be possible. - Storm chances will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms may be possible.

- Increasing chances for widespread storms and rainfall later this week and into next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Today's marginal severe risk is not our first one this year, but it does appear to be the start of a transition to more active weather this week. Latest CAMs are showing storms initiating around 3 to 5pm along the front (approximately along the I-44 corridor). Surface instability will peak around 500 to 1500 joules as daytime heating combines with southerly moisture pooling along the south side of the front. With deep layer shear of around 50 to 60 knots, we could see a few storms capable of producing up to half dollar size hail and 60 mph winds. Storm chances will diminish this evening as we lose daytime heating.

Outside of convective activity, temperature forecast appears on track with a strong gradient along the front. High temperatures north of the front are topping out in the 50s and 60s, while south of the front we'll be seeing 70s and 80s. Lows tonight will show a similar gradient, with parts of northwest Oklahoma getting just below freezing while south central Oklahoma stays up in the 50s.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Monday is looking to be a fairly overcast day with some low chances for brief light rain. There's some uncertainty with the temperature forecast as almost all the hi-res models are running about 10 degrees cooler than global models. Will be leaning toward the hi-res solutions as likely better capturing the effects of cloud cover and cold air advection.

By Tuesday, we return to strong southerly surface flow, bringing temperatures back up into the 80s. Another front is set to enter northwest Oklahoma Tuesday evening. This will set us up for dual potential threats: fire weather during the afternoon and storms Tuesday evening and overnight.

For fire weather, we're currently looking at patchy elevated conditions. The big limiting factor is a lack of overlap between the stronger winds (concentrated over central Oklahoma) and lower RH values (confined to northwest Oklahoma). By the numbers, this weather setup is pretty marginal, but with westerly low level flow combined with a potentially strong low level thermal ridge, it's worth keeping an eye on.

Tuesday holds some low chances for storms during the afternoon, but capping looks to be a limiting factor. Higher chances arrive as the front surges south. Right now it looks like the majority of convection will be along and behind the front, making elevated storms the primary mode. Ample instability and deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms.

Day

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Wednesday and through next weekend continues to remain an active period with a progressive pattern aloft. Tuesday's cold front may stall somewhere around southeast Oklahoma and into north Texas on Wednesday, which will open the door for additional storms to develop along the frontal boundary. Behind the front, much of the storm chances will decrease with a more post-frontal drier airmass in the wake of the shortwave. There remains uncertainty in the exact location of the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday, which will play a key role in where the moisture axis and storm chances remain. Any storms that develop could become strong to severe.

Heading into Thursday through next weekend, more widespread rainfall chances are possible with another advancing shortwave and a cutoff low over Baja helping to advect sub-tropical moisture into the Southern Plains. Strong to severe storms remain possible given the mid-level ascent and increased moisture, but exact mesoscale details will still need to be assessed through this week. As mentioned before, widespread rainfall is possible with a chance for some areas receiving several inches of rain. The highest probabilities for greater rainfall amounts remains mostly east of the I-44 corridor with a medium to high chance (40-80%) for greater than 1 inch of rain and a low to medium chance (20-40%) for greater than 2 inches of rainfall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Currently VFR everywhere except for KDUA where a morning stratus deck is just barely hanging on with 2,000 foot ceilings. A cold front is sharpening just north of I-44 and will continue to be nearly stationary through about sunset. At that point it will start to move with scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly between 23Z and 05Z expected along it. Behind the front, ceilings will drop from 500-1,500 feet tonight across much of the area after midnight and will likely remain that way until well into the morning. Some fog/mist potential is also possible late tonight, largely in north central Oklahoma. Winds over the next 24 hours will be largely dependent on location and proximity to the cold front.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 41 57 52 79 / 60 10 10 20 Hobart OK 39 59 51 82 / 30 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 48 65 57 85 / 50 10 0 20 Gage OK 29 56 45 83 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 38 53 47 81 / 40 10 20 20 Durant OK 55 69 58 82 / 30 10 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.