textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 122 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Widespread rain event expected from today through midday Sunday, with the entire area seeing measurable rain and a maximum swath of about 1 inch of rain south of I-40.

- Chilly on Sunday; slow warm-up thereafter.

- Rain/storm chances return by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Near-term forecast impacts: Rain begins in western Oklahoma/western north Texas around noon, with rain chances spreading eastward by sunset.

Discussion: Water vapor imagery shows the trough that will impact our area currently speeding through the southern Sierra Nevada. The speed max associated with the trough will reach New Mexico by early afternoon with larger-scale height falls beginning in western Oklahoma/western north Texas by late afternoon. With that said, the primary driver of rain this afternoon will be warm air advection. RAP soundings show increasingly looping hodographs indicative of a deep layer of WAA above the boundary layer.

Rain onset should be late morning to early afternoon in western Oklahoma/western north Texas. The wait will primarily be for low- level moistening to occur, as the light east/northeast winds of the last 36 hours have allowed drier air to advect in near the surface. Guidance expands rain eastward in the area a little faster with those advective profiles, but we would anticipate this diurnal activity to be a little more showery and a little less widespread. Modest instability is expected across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma late this afternoon (about 500 J/kg of elevated CAPE per the RAP), so lightning and potentially small hail are possible with stronger convective cores.

Temperatures today will remain below normal as widespread heavy cloud cover dominates the afternoon. In western Oklahoma in particular, rain could keep highs in the upper 40s in spots.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 122 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Short-term forecast impacts: Rain event peaks tonight and Sunday morning, tapering off by Sunday evening.

Discussion: The trough/speed max will cut off tonight in the Raton Mesa vicinity before moving east-southeastward toward the lower Red River region on Sunday afternoon. Despite the somewhat atypical trajectory of approach and the obviously weakening state of the overall system through the day Sunday, we're still getting treated to one of the most dependable biases in the forecast models with this event: that of the late southward shift/suppression of heaviest rain. Don't think this materially affects the question of "Will I get rain at my house?" - just about everyone will - but there likely will be some unsatisfied folks who get less than half an inch of rain total north of I-40. The greatest likelihood of storm totals exceeding 1+ inch will be along and south of I-40, especially near the Red River, where REFS probability-matched means approach 1.5 inches in southern Oklahoma.

We continue to note the presence of elevated instability in RAP forecast soundings from tonight through early Sunday in parts of western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. If embedded or advectively-driven convective cells develop, expect the potential for brief but intense periods of lightning along with bursts of small hail (and perhaps a lot of small hail at once).

The widespread rain will begin to taper off from northwest to southeast beginning around midday Sunday. Some wraparound precipitation on the backside of the low could hang around as late as early Sunday night, but for the most part would expect the area to be drying up by then. Low cloud cover will remain throughout this period, and much of our area will see temperatures holding steadily in the low-to-mid 40s from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

Easterly winds and lingering moisture behind the system on Monday will help keep low cloud cover in place. Temperatures will rebound slightly into the 50s, but it will certainly still feel like fall.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 122 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Gradual warm-up, with rain chances returning by the end of the week.

Discussion: Shortwave ridging returns briefly to the Plains on Tuesday. This will help clear the mechanism from the cold/wet/cloudy pattern. With southwest flow building over the northern Plains during the day, winds here will shift southerly and potentially get rather breezy. All of this suggests dry and slightly warmer weather.

That southwest mid-level flow will dominate more of the Plains by Wednesday. Breezy conditions and warmer temperatures are likely to follow each of Wednesday and Thursday with more substantial moisture return occurring by day 3 or 4 of the return flow regime. With a favorable upper-air pattern and increasing moisture, storm chances will increase on Thursday/Friday, though a specific window or location for those storms has yet to emerge on ensemble data.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A few high clouds overnight with light east winds. Clouds will increase Saturday morning with ceilings lowering throughout the day. Winds will also increase from the southeast during the day, especially across the west where gusts over 20kts will be likely. Rain chances ramp up late in the afternoon and become widespread Saturday evening. Along with this ceilings will lower to MVFR late in the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 54 40 46 39 / 20 100 100 10 Hobart OK 52 40 46 41 / 70 100 90 0 Wichita Falls TX 58 43 48 42 / 70 100 90 10 Gage OK 48 36 44 34 / 90 100 80 0 Ponca City OK 55 38 48 34 / 0 80 100 20 Durant OK 59 42 49 42 / 10 90 100 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.