textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend with a cooldown early next week to more seasonably normal.

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across western Oklahoma into western north Texas.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across northern and western Oklahoma into western north Texas. There will be severe thunderstorm potential in parts of our area on Friday through Tuesday next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Windy conditions, fire weather, and a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms are several potential weather issues for this afternoon into the evening hours, as well as heat during the afternoon.

The axis of the upper ridge will be moving through the Southern Plains while a deepening lee low will be tightening the surface isobars across our area increasing south winds sustained 20-25 mph. Strong mixing off the surface to an 850 mb jet flow could produce 30- 40 mph gusts by the afternoon hours. Moisture already in place has produced a sharp (stronger) dryline which will likely remain stretched across the western TX/OK Panhandles (until this weekend), but a broader dryline stretched across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles is expected to punch into our western CWA this afternoon. The drier air will result in very low RH values behind the line this afternoon between 15-20%. As a result the fire danger will be an Elevated to Critical risk behind the dryline due to the gusty winds and unseasonably hot air. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon till late this evening behind the dryline across parts of western Oklahoma including adjacent Hardeman County TX. The heat dome effect under the ridge with strong warm advection in the lower-levels will soar our temperatures with most of our CWA west of the I-35 corridor heating into the 90s while to upper 80s east of the corridor. Although about 10 degrees warmer than normal for mid May, not expecting to break any temperature records today.

As far as convection, we do have a Marginal risk for severe storms across across northern through western Oklahoma into adjacent western north Texas by mid-afternoon through the evening hours. Should diurnal heating erode the boundary layer cap near the dryline by late afternoon, then convection could fire up through steep mid- level lapse rates for high-based thunderstorms. D-CAPE forecast values support strong to severe downburst winds will be possible with an additional large hail hazard closer to the Kansas state line. Behind this a mid-level shortwave propagating through the ridge could produce additional elevated convection overnight.

One caveat is our afternoon skies are expected to be broken to overcast with high cloudiness. Should the high cloudiness be thick and dense enough to slow solar heating it could affect/decrease wind gust speeds, instability, and heating.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Warmer tonight and breezy under a strong low-level jet with much of our area cooling down to around 70 degrees which will be near record breaking for the daily warmest minimum temperatures.

Hot and windy again Friday and perhaps hotter across our southwest CWA with triple digit MaxTs to 104 degrees as we will come very close to breaking daily warmest maximum temperatures records at some locations in western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. Our upper ridge continues breaking down with a shortwave moving through. Although expected to stay capped at the lower-levels we could see some elevated storms capable of producing strong to severe gusty winds with a Marginal severe risk west of I-35.

On Saturday the "sharp" dryline makes its advance to our western CWA with a potential for dryline convection breaking out across our west enhanced by an additional shortwave moving through the mid-levels along with a severe risk across northern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Upper troughing starts digging through the western U.S. becoming more longwave as pressure heights will be falling across our area. Still hot Sunday across much of our western CWA with many 90s although warm 80s highs will be increasing further west of I-35 into west-central OK. Out west the dryline makes another punch into our western CWA. A series of shortwaves flowing downstream from the trough could result in storms over our with probabilities increasing 30-50% Monday into Tuesday when our next cold front is expected to be pushing through. Severe thunderstorms will be possible each day this weekend across parts of our area with the better chance late Sunday as the GFS is suggesting dryline convection. The severe risk becoming most widespread Monday when the synoptic system (main trough and frontal boundary) will be coming through. By Tuesday into Wednesday behind the front we'll finally see a cooldown with temperatures returning back to seasonably normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Gusty south winds will develop this morning and continue with just a slight drop-off this evening. There will be some mid/high clouds today and continuing overnight. Have maintained a PROB30 for both WWR/CSM for a few hours this evening for a chance of a isolated thunderstorm or two impacting those sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 88 71 92 72 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 96 70 102 70 / 0 30 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 95 71 99 71 / 0 20 20 20 Gage OK 96 64 98 63 / 0 30 10 20 Ponca City OK 88 69 90 70 / 0 20 10 20 Durant OK 88 70 89 70 / 0 0 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-015-021-033-034-036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083.