textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger persists through at least Saturday.

- A cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain chances and less hot temperatures next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Near-record heat and elevated fire danger continues today, with a Heat Advisory in effect across southeastern counties...

The 00Z Sept 17 upper air analyses shows a highly anomalous 600 dam ridge centered over Alabama, southwest flow over our region, and a trough over northern California. The upper ridge shifts westward today, and while south winds will generally be lighter than yesterday, we will still have to monitor for elevated fire danger across west-central and southwest Oklahoma, and western north Texas where a volatile fuel-driven environment remains in place.

Similar temperatures are expected today, with minimum relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Continued moisture return is anticipated to keep RH values somewhat better into central Oklahoma (~35%).

Another balmy night is expected with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70's.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The heat persists through the weekend, with similar maximum temperatures to what we've seen the past few days. The upper ridge remains centered over the ArkLaTex region and begins to weaken as a strong upper trough approaches the northern Rockies. Deterministic models are in better agreement with the strength and timing of the upper trough, with the cold front reaching Kansas on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorms by late Saturday afternoon or evening across northwest Oklahoma with chances expanding across south and east into central Oklahoma and western north Texas by early Sunday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Saturday across northwest Oklahoma with large hail and gusty winds possible.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The front will battle the heat on Sunday and could remain nearly stationary across far northern Oklahoma much of the day, with medium-high probabilities of rain/storms expanding and shifting southward into portions of central Oklahoma by Sunday evening. This will likely keep hot temperatures for the majority of the CWA on Sunday. As the cooler airmass begins to advect into Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and evening, low-level frontogenesis sharpens and mid-level lapse rates steepen. As a result, strong to severe storms with large hail are possible by Sunday afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma.

The front moves slowly southward on Sunday night and Monday morning, and may not fully exit our area until late Monday. There is the hope that Monday will mark the end to our long season of triple- digit temperatures as highs remain in the 80's and 90's, with continued shower and storm chances.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue with only fair weather cumulus expected with daytime heating.

Southerly winds will continue with only slight variations in direction.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 99 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 98 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 98 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 101 74 101 73 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-042-043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.