textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Conditions today

- Hotter temperatures return on Tuesday with no significant chance for precipitation this week. - Cooler temperatures by next weekend

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions prevail this afternoon, thanks to the combination of above normal temperatures, low relative humidities, high winds, and dry fuels. Adding to the problem today will be the wind shift as the front progresses to the south. As of Noon, the front was located from Altus to Stillwater, moving south and east around 30-40 mph. By this timing, the boundary will be out of the area well before sunset.

As the front continues to move south, cold air advection will cool temperatures down somewhat in the northwest, while the southwest parts of Oklahoma and our north Texas counties will see temperatures rise to near record levels this afternoon. As the front switches the stronger winds to a northwesterly direction, there will be a few areas of patchy blowing dust across Oklahoma and western north Texas as well.

Cooler temperatures then take over tonight and Monday, with lows dropping into the mid 40s for much of the area, except for the far northwestern portions of Oklahoma, where mid to upper 30s are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

The roller coaster of temperature swings continues Monday afternoon and then again Tuesday. For Monday, we're still above normal, but highs will be in the lower 70s instead of the 90s we have seen this weekend. By Tuesday afternoon, however, we get back in to the mid 80s...and even a few more 90 degree readings in the southwest.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

There is some hope for some changes in the extended. However, don't get hopes up too high, as rain chances won't be back in the forecast until April. The ensemble model solutions are very well clustered through Thursday, giving high confidence in the forecast through then. For Friday, the ensemble spread is quite large, so high temperature forecast confidence is low. For OKC on Friday, the spread for high temperature range is about 20 degrees, from a 25% percentile of 61 to around 81 on the 75% percentile. Saturday's forecast is clustered fairly well, yet after Saturday, the ensembles can't quite focus on one particular solution just yet.

What does this mean? Transition time may finally be here. The models and especially their ensembles are finding multiple solutions, which typically occurs when the pattern is changing. While nothing special about the change of a calendar page, there may be some additional hope for a pattern change in the right direction for us after the next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Gusty north winds will decrease some this evening but remain breezy. Winds will gradually become more northeasterly tomorrow.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 45 70 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 44 71 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 49 72 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 37 66 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 40 65 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 54 74 54 81 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042- 044>046-050.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-012-013.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.