textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Near-record heat, elevated fire danger, and severe storms are expected today.

- Above-average heat continues through end of the week.

- Strong cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain chances and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Another hot and breezy day is in store today as a lee-surface low exits Colorado ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures at all three climate sites will be near record high temperatures for today's date. With the pressure gradient contracts with the approach of these features, expect sustained SSW winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph across western Oklahoma and 25 to 30 mph across portions of northern and central Oklahoma. Compressional heating ahead of the approaching front will lead to very hot conditions, and the Heat Advisory has been expanded to include north-central Oklahoma.

Dynamic lift from shortwaves (propagating northeastward along the periphery of the upper ridge), along with mechanical lift associated with frontogenetical forcing, will be sufficient to for the development of strong to severe thunderstorm development by mid- to- late afternoon from the panhandles, northwest Oklahoma and into Kansas. With storm cloud bases estimated at 8k to 10kft (and near dry-adiabatic low-level lapse rates), wind gusts of 65 to 70 mph are possible. The threat of large hail has decreased given the decrease in modeled wind shear. However, we cannot rule out isolated hail up to the size of quarters.

Therefore, the dominant hazards with storm activity appears to be dry microbursts and dry lightning. We will have to watch for potential lightning-induced fire starts, given the volatile state of fuels over portions of northwest Oklahoma.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Storm outflow may nudge the effective front over northern Oklahoma on Tuesday night, and low shower/storm chances linger across northwest and northern Oklahoma tonight due to WAA and nocturnal LLJ. Low temperatures on Tuesday night could range form the mid-60's (northwest OK) to near 80 deg.

The remnant boundary/front lifts northward out of our area, with continued hot and dry conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. The anomalous ridge retrogrades towards the southern plains over the course of the short term period, which provides continued return flow across the area.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The center of the ridge is prog'd to slow/stall in the vicinity of ArkLaTex by Friday as a strong trough departs the Pacific northwest for the northern plains. This upper trough pushes a cold front southward across the plains and is forecast to arrive into at least northern Oklahoma by Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms chances have trended higher for late Saturday into Sunday morning, with beneficial and widespread rainfall possible. With moderate instability ahead of the front, strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM run has high temperatures in the low 80's on Sunday and upper 70's on Monday for areas near and north of the I-40 corridor. Southeastern Oklahoma will be the last to benefit from the cooler airmass and is forecast to have max temperatures finally below 90 degrees on Monday. Rain chances linger on Sunday and depart our area by Monday morning.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least mid-afternoon at all terminals.

Southerly winds will veer slightly and become gusty later this morning. These winds will weaken after sunset this evening. A cold front will approach northwest Oklahoma and briefly shift the winds at a few terminals (KWWR, KCSM, and KPNC) to the north.

Few to scattered cumulus clouds are expected with daytime heating (~6000 to 9000 ft AGL). Showers and thunderstorms are possible across northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) in association with the cold front this afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts and brief reductions in visibility with the most intense storms.

Mahale

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Near record heat is expected today with minimum relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent across the entire area. Winds are not forecast to be quite as breezy as yesterday. Across western Oklahoma, expect SSW winds at 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph with gusts to 30 mph over northern and central Oklahoma and 25 mph gusts over western north Texas. While fire weather conditions are considered low according to the classic paradigm, total fire environment will lead to elevated fire danger today due to the volatile state of fuels. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for western, central, and southeastern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Thompson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 101 76 99 75 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 103 76 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 98 65 95 72 / 60 90 10 0 Ponca City OK 99 72 97 73 / 10 20 0 0 Durant OK 102 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-026-031-032-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.