textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1004 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over parts of western Oklahoma this afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also increase with the arrival of the front.

- A pattern change will bring higher and widespread rain chances middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1258 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Mostly sunny skies, warm and dry conditions are expected through the afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon over northwest and western Oklahoma. Observational trends indicate dewpoint temperatures are verifying lower than forecast for for these areas, and therefore, relative humidity is now expected to be a bit lower this afternoon. Latest CAMS have picked up on a subtle increase in northwest winds that could arrive in northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. Thermodynamic profiles indicate deep mixing to near 700mb which would provide for potential wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph over these areas.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight due to the center of high pressure drifting across the area and low temperatures will be similar to those seen last night/this morning.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1258 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A strong upper trough passes far to the north and results in a developing surface trough as the surface high exits our area. Mainly light south/southwesterly winds return area-wide on Friday and moderately higher winds of 15 mph (gusts to 25 mph) expected over northwest/west Oklahoma, where the pressure gradient is tightest. Slightly warmer temperatures, minimum relative humidity near 20 percent, and gusty winds could yield elevated fire weather conditions over northwest Oklahoma for a few hours in the afternoon.

Latest deterministic guidance indicates a weak surface low develops in the vicinity of Lubbock early Saturday morning and the surface trough axis swings into northwest Oklahoma by mid-day. Breezy southerly winds are forecast and the enhanced return flow will advect low-level moisture into the FA with dewpoint temperatures rising into the upper 50's by Saturday afternoon. Low shower/storm chances return on Saturday late afternoon and into the late evening ahead of an approaching cold front and as a mid- level shortwave approaches from the northwest. Strong to severe storms are possible along the cold front by late Saturday evening with instability values near 1000-1500 J/kg and 50 kt bulk shear values prog'd. Large hail and gusty winds are the main potential hazards at this time.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

With Sunday being the first day of March, it seems fitting that we will have a change in our weather. The main weather feature Sunday will be a southward moving cold front. Currently, it appears the front should at least move across the northern half of Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon, with the front reaching southern Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday night into early Monday. The deterministic GFS pushes the front through most of the area by 6 pm Sunday while other models are slower. Behind the frontal boundary, moisture will continue to deepen which should result in areas of light rain and eventually elevated showers and storms. Central and eastern Oklahoma should see this pattern emerge first (better moisture depth) while western Oklahoma and northern Texas have lower precipitation chances. Naturally, the frontal timing and movement will augment the timing and location of any precipitation. On Monday, precipitation chances will decrease as the depth of a moist, stable layer decreases.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase again Tuesday into Wednesday, as an upper low/trough approaches the southern Plains from the west. How far moisture is displaced into central/southern Texas with the cold front Monday will influence how far the warm sector will return into northern Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday into Wednesday. Regardless, it appears beneficial rainfall will overspread the area by midweek.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions continue tonight, tomorrow, and into the early part of tomorrow night. Winds have become near-calm at most sites; they will be light and variable through mid-morning before a shift to southwesterly at 8-12 knots during the day. Another shift to southerly at about 5 knots is expected after sunset.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 45 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 42 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 39 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 71 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 78 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.