textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Lingering convection has brought welcome relief from the heat for parts of central and south central Oklahoma. It's also required significant adjustments to our temperature forecast and heat headlines. Additionally, an area of gusty southeast winds resulting from the convective complex is currently over highway 81 at the time of writing, gradually migrating westward.

Meanwhile, southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas have already reached triple digit temperatures. Temperatures in northern Oklahoma won't get quite as hot, but dewpoints will keep heat indices near heat advisory level.

Fire weather will still be a concern with elevated RFTIs expected in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. The aforementioned area of gusty winds may also affect parts of this area, potentially complicating fire fighting efforts.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Convection is looking more likely on Saturday with CAMs getting fairly aggressive about producing storms.

First, some early morning activity will be possible near or east of I-35 (lower chances) driven by warm air advection.

Second, CAMs are producing an MCS in eastern Kansas that is forecast to dive into eastern Oklahoma, potentially affecting some of our eastern counties.

Third, as the MCS and associated outflow make their way south and daytime heating reaches its peak, with residual boundaries in the area we could see additional scattered convection develop westward, mainly south of I-40.

This all makes the heat forecast complicated. Northern Oklahoma may get cut off by outflow. Southern and central Oklahoma may get shielded by rain and cloud cover (though some of that may arrive too late in the day to make a difference). Right now, our highest confidence in heat impacts is southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. We've issued a heat advisory for this area, but additional areas may need to be added as the mesoscale features come into greater focus.

We'll be watching fire weather across western Oklahoma and western north Texas as well. RH driven elevated RFTIs will be possible with light winds (outside of potential convection) being the main limiting factor. However, like today, convectively induced winds may complicate fire fighting efforts.

Rain chances come down on Sunday as the ridge exerts more influence (though we'll have to keep an eye out for mesoscale features that may change this forecast). Heat (southern two thirds of Oklahoma and north Texas) and fire weather (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas) will again be the main concerns.

Day

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

As we go throughout the upcoming week, the upper ridge slowly retrogrades back westward. Even by Monday this will allow a more northwest mid-level flow, although weak, to develop across the Southern Plains. Do not anticipate any big changes Monday or Tuesday with another couple of days with near record heat. Although an isolated late day storm can not be ruled out.

As we go into Tuesday night, a stronger shortwave drops southeast out of the central Rockies and into Oklahoma, bringing a better chance of rain to portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Currently we have 20-40% chance of precip, best across northwest Oklahoma. Hopefully these increase as we get closer, but I don't want to get too optimistic at this point.

In the wake of what we hope is some precip, some cooler air slides into parts of the area with temperatures in the 90s along and north of I-40 Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Ongoing scattered precipitation and the southwest passage of consolidated outflow are creating changeable sky/wind/wx conditions across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma and portions of north Texas early this afternoon. Wind direction is expected to continue shifting towards the south behind outflow through this evening. Additional (low) storm chances are possible across western Oklahoma after 20-21 UTC, yielding potential for gusty- erratic winds at any impacted terminals.

Towards daybreak Saturday, another round of scattered rain and storms is forecast near the I-35 corridor, moving from north-to- south across the area through the end of the period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 104 76 103 / 20 30 10 0 Hobart OK 79 107 76 108 / 10 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 80 108 79 109 / 10 30 30 0 Gage OK 73 98 71 104 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 74 94 73 95 / 20 20 10 10 Durant OK 78 107 77 106 / 20 30 30 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-010>017- 019>023-033>038.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018-024- 027-039-044>046-050-051.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ033-036-037- 044.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>089.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ090.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.