textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1011 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- This week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Continue to watch eastward progression of the dryline, currently moving east across western OK. Although some uncertainty remains as to how far east it will go before retreating back west this evening. Several models have it running along I-44 across southwest into central OK then north along I-35 by late this afternoon. This is likely to be the focus for any convective development, however there appears to be a lack of strong convergence along with dryline this afternoon as well as a lack of strong mid-level forcing. Although there is a few minor disturbances in the flow that may aid in some isolated activity from central into southwest OK by late this afternoon. The best chance may be to our south with isolated storms moving north toward the Red River this evening before dissipating. However, any storm that does develop will be in a favorable environment for supercell thunderstorms.

To the west of the dryline, and especially across northwest OK, where there continues to be a lack of any substantial rainfall to help the transition of the vegetation from dormant to green-up, Fire Weather concerns remain. A Reg Flag Warning continues this afternoon into the early evening hours for that area.

As we go through the overnight, the dryline will retreat to the west with an increasing low level jet. Toward Tuesday morning could see uptick in isentropic lift to aid in the development of a few showers and storms, mainly across southern OK into north TX.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

For Tuesday a rather diffuse dryline will be located across western OK and western north Texas southward into southwest TX. To the west of this line very poor overnight RH recovery will set the stage for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across northwest OK by late morning, continuing into the early evening hours. Very warm and windy conditions develop by late morning as RH values drop below 20%. Will continue with the Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

As for convection, after the morning activity dissipates, much of the day is expected to be dry before additional convection develops by late afternoon. At that time models try to tighten the dryline up across western OK and an embedded wave in the subtropical jet moves northeast across the area. This should be sufficient to get convective development along the dryline across western OK southward into western north Texas. CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50kts should be sufficient for supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. This activity will work north and east of the area by late evening. Some models do show another area of convection developing well south of the area, but may hold together overnight and move back into Oklahoma toward Wednesday morning. If this does occur, a few of the storms could be strong to low end severe.

Main trough then shifts east across the Southern Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs a dryline will tighten up across western OK and western north Texas with a Pacific front entering northwest OK by afternoon. Although some questions remain with regards to how the morning convection may impact afternoon development, but pockets of moderate instability and favorable shear would be sufficient that any storms that do form to become severe. Severe risk may linger across the eastern third, including our southeast OK counties, overnight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR ceilings expected to develop later tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Showers/storms will be possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected to continue overnight into Tuesday. LLWS is also expected at several TAF sites overnight into early Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 83 63 79 / 10 50 60 70 Hobart OK 65 87 61 84 / 10 50 50 50 Wichita Falls TX 67 84 64 82 / 20 50 80 60 Gage OK 60 89 56 83 / 0 20 30 20 Ponca City OK 68 87 62 80 / 10 40 50 70 Durant OK 68 81 66 78 / 10 30 50 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.

TX...None.