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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 555 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
- Freezing drizzle and freezing fog possible Thursday morning.
- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday morning across much of Oklahoma.
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight) Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
The warming trend continues today with southwest winds and abundant solar insolation (sunshine). Temperatures across the entire area will rise above freezing with some locations across northwest Oklahoma reaching the 50s F. The snow pack from the weekend winter storm will continue to temper the magnitude of the warmup by the increased surface albedo.
For tonight, a mid-latitude cyclone and its attendant surface low will move into Oklahoma from the northwest as its parent shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains. Low-level warm air advection and moisture advection east to the northeast of the surface low may result in freezing drizzle and/or freezing fog late tonight into tomorrow morning as the boundary layer saturates. Currently, the most likely area for this to occur is east of Hwy 281 across south central, central, and north central Oklahoma. Freezing drizzle is not a guarantee (30 to 40% chance/medium chance), but it is important to check the weather conditions tomorrow morning as it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause significant travel impacts.
Mahale
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
If freezing drizzle and/or fog develops tonight, it will likely be ongoing/expanding into Thursday morning. As the surface low continues to move the southeast, winds will shift to the north and become breezy with the passage of a cold front. Cold air advection in the front's wake will put a stop to our current warming trend for most locations with temperatures across the northern half to two- thirds of Oklahoma lower on Thursday than Wednesday. Across western north Texas, temperatures will rise above Wednesday's highs before the cold front arrives. The cooler air mass will continue into Friday with continued northerly winds.
A stronger, secondary surge of cold air arrives Friday night as an intense shortwave trough digs across the Midwest into the southeast U.S. Much colder weather will arrive in this front's wake with temperatures falling into the single digits and teens Friday night. Combined with breezy winds, dangerous wind chills ranging from +5 to -15 deg F will return across the area. Synoptic-scale ascent associated with the wave may result in some light snow/flurries in the front's wake (highest chance across northwest Oklahoma). At this time, any snow accumulations look light.
Mahale
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
A compact winter trough will dig due south from Ontario into the mid- South on Saturday. This will help lock that high pressure in place across the Southern Plains/Ozarks over the weekend. In turn, that means we will see a few more days of likely dry and cold weather.
The pattern will remain progressive into early next week. Usually that's not much of a shock, but after the stagnant pattern of December/early January it's nice to see winter acting like winter. Shortwave ridging will move overhead early in the week and finally bring us back to average early February temperatures, melting off what remains of the snow. Behind it, a period of troughiness will likely encourage some moisture return and the development of a surface low. Ensembles suggest at least potential for another round of rain toward the middle of next week.
Meister
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Light south-southwest winds overnight with some low-level moisture advection into central Oklahoma bringing a low-to-medium (~30%) chance for some freezing drizzle during the morning hours tomorrow. Therefore, PROB30 was utilized and trends will continue to be monitored. A surface low will bring a cold front through the area tomorrow morning as well with increasing low clouds behind the front and MVFR conditions possible, especially across northern into central and southeast Oklahoma.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 27 34 17 35 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 25 39 15 42 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 27 44 20 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 22 38 17 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 21 33 11 30 / 0 10 0 0 Durant OK 26 47 23 42 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None. TX...None.
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