textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Frost possible Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

- Increasing concern for strong-severe storms on Friday and Saturday evening & night.

- Heat returns on Saturday and again toward the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A band of light precipitation across the high terrain of New Mexico/the panhandles has tried its hand at moving into northwest Oklahoma at times overnight. With dewpoint depressions at the surface remaining around 15 just downstream of the precipitation, it seems as though accumulations will remain very light (1/10 of an inch or less). Perhaps more to the point, that light precipitation and associated cloud cover has interrupted the nocturnal cooling cycle, with temperatures holding in the mid-40s early this morning. Those will of course continue to drop once the cloud cover departs, but with the light wetting/wet-bulbing and delayed onset of cooling, frost chances this morning seem to have decreased some.

The surface high will slide southeastward through our area this morning with light pressure falls behind it. Because of that, surface winds will be from the due west today, a recipe for quick chinooking and temperatures bounding back to or above normal. Elevated fire weather will be possible in northwest Oklahoma where RHs drop to near 20 percent and winds reach about 15 mph sustained - far from the worst fire conditions we have seen this spring, but worthy of caution nonetheless.

The leading edge of the modified Gulf airmass reaches back into our area late tonight, so low temperatures tomorrow morning will be 10- 15 degrees warmer as well.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The primary story in the short-term will be the increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. The severe weather risk is extant if not overwhelming both days and will be monitored.

On Friday, the seemingly never-ending subtropical jet extension will finally conclude itself with a cutoff low ejecting into northern Mexico. The polar jet will feature large-scale northwest flow across the central US, encouraging an elongated pressure trough to develop from the upper Great Lakes toward the Red River. A sharpening frontal boundary will start to move southward in the afternoon/evening into an increasingly moist/unstable airmass. This will eventually kick off convection initiation somewhere near I-44. Storms will move southeastward along the front with a tendency toward upscale growth encouraged by frontal forcing, rather marginal deep-layer shear, and dry mid-levels. The strongest cores will be capable of severe hail and damaging downburst winds.

On Saturday, the subtropical cutoff will be to our south across Texas, but more midlatitude forcing will come in the form of a northwest flow perturbation. Assuming that moisture isn't wiped by the Friday round of storms, richer boundary-layer theta-E will stream northward east of a weak surface low. Another southward- surging front will approach in the late afternoon and kick off a second, perhaps more-widespread round of thunderstorms into the evening and early part of the night. Severe weather remains possible with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear, but storm- scale details remain to be seen.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Sunday looks like it could be a cloudy and cooler one for much of the area in the immediate postfrontal regime. Lingering rain chances will exist near and just behind the front, especially early in the day.

A broader pattern shift begins on Monday and lasts through the middle of the week as ridging amplifies to the west of the area. The jet will reside to the north and east of the southern Plains, making one or more of those days (especially Tuesday) primed for potential record-setting heat. The other days will be merely very warm instead of hot. Rain chances shouldn't be altogether dismissed, especially in the eastern part of the forecast area, but don't look impressive at the moment.

Meister

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail. Wind direction will shift around from westerly to southerly.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 53 85 57 / 0 0 20 20 Hobart OK 78 52 89 56 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 77 53 87 59 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 79 50 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 75 53 83 51 / 0 0 30 10 Durant OK 73 53 81 60 / 0 0 10 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004-009-014.

TX...None.