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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma into next week.
- Dry and cooler weather this weekend. Warming but remaining mainly dry into the middle of next week.
- Storm chances and potential for severe weather return by Thursday for at least portions of the area.
NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
A dry return flow pattern is expected today as the surface high moves to the east. Much drier air is expected across the entire area, especially the western third of the area where RH values are likely to get down into the teens by the afternoon. Across northwestern Oklahoma, fuels are still dry and winds are expected to breezy this afternoon. That being said, there will be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions that materialize this afternoon across these areas. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon to 8 pm this evening for far northwestern Oklahoma. Given the return to southwesterly winds, afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday's highs.
Bunker
SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
A weak wave will move across the Texas Panhandle Monday evening, which will provide just enough lift for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning. No severe weather is expected with this activity.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across northwestern Oklahoma on Monday, with a lull in fire weather activity on Tuesday.
Increased cloud cover on Monday and Tuesday will limit the warming trend. Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday, and in the 60s to low 80s Tuesday.
Bunker
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
A mid-level ridge moves out of the area Wednesday with our next potential system moving in by Thursday. A dryline is expected to mix eastward across western Oklahoma Thursday, with near critical fire weather concerns behind the dryline, and storm chances to the east of the dryline. Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of northern, central, and southwestern Oklahoma.
A cold front is expected to make its way through the area late Thursday into Friday, bringing high temperatures down back into the 70s through the weekend.
Bunker
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Light and variable winds will continue tonight, becoming more southerly toward morning. Western Oklahoma will see some afternoon breeziness. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Day
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 72 45 74 52 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 74 44 75 52 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 74 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 76 45 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 44 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 72 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...None.
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