textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Widespread dangerous heating across our area today although shifting to southern Oklahoma & western north Texas ahead of a stalled "summer" cool front for Thursday and Friday.

- Fire weather conditions increase to an Elevated Risk today across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Dangerous heating returning across our entire area by this weekend and hotter with our next cool front early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The headlines for today will be a near repeat of yesterday with widespread dangerous heating and fire weather across parts of our west.

A surface low off the Central & Southern High Plains will continue increasing across northern Oklahoma preceding a "summer" cold front currently stretched across southern Kansas. An initial shortwave trough digging through an upper ridge over the Central High Plains will be pushing that aforementioned surface frontal boundary into northern Oklahoma during the latter half of this morning based on a consensus of deterministic & CAMs model guidance and NBM with only the ECMWF perhaps slow biased. Strong surface moisture (70+ dew points) transport from the gulf still to our east from the Mo-Ark region and north across the Central Plains but will be surging into our area behind the frontal boundary. However there could be a lag or gradient between strong moisture (upper 60s dew points) right behind the front to the strongest moisture staying up in Kansas. This would increase the heat index slightly right behind the front but not too aggressive while lowering the air temperature during the afternoon. Either way would expect at least 105 degrees behind the front and would meet either heating advisory or warning criteria for northcentral OK. The latest run of the NBM is slightly hot-biased across our north so will just revert back to the previous run for this afternoons MaxT with mostly triple digit highs between 100 to 110 degrees with some upper 90s along the Oklahoma/Kansas line. As a result will have a repeater of heating hazards from yesterday with an Extreme Heat Warning across the eastern half of our forecast area to a Heat Advisory across our entire western half. Both advisory & warning will be in effect late this morning from 11 AM until sundown/8 PM. South winds this morning will veer southwest this afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary around 10-15 mph with weak gusts as this mornings low-level jet dissipates by the afternoon. Still relatively drier air ahead of the front and driest across our west resulting in very low RH values down to 15% in the afternoon. Although just breezy winds but the excessively hot temperatures and very low RHs over very dry ground vegetation will again Elevate the fire danger risk across much of our west during the afternoon, but excluding portions of northwest Oklahoma that will be behind the frontal boundary.

As far as rain, did add -RA this morning across northcentral Oklahoma with the arriving frontal boundary as some of the CAMs suggest activity. However soundings suggest only shallow moisture in the mid-levels and very dry in the lower-levels so will keep those POPs very low and mentionable but most unlikely.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Not expecting tonight to be as warm as the previous record breaking night with the cool front stalled in southern Oklahoma. Most of our area will see milder 70s lows but areas ahead of the front mainly near and south of the Red River may only drop to near 80 degrees. A second upper/main wave digs through tonight which could initiate a few storms in mainly eastern Oklahoma with low POPs (15%) extending as far west into central Oklahoma during Wednesday late evening to overnight.

The surface boundary remains stalled across southern Oklahoma on Thursday with upper ridging building further eastward with the surface boundary eventually washing out by late Friday. Although widespread triple digit MaxTs for Thursday and Friday afternoons the more excessive heating (105-110 degrees) should stay south of the stalled front across southern Oklahoma and western Oklahoma where heating headlines will likely be to perhaps south of I-40 for Friday. Strong boundary layer mixing from diurnal heating on Thursday afternoon could break a weak cap across southeast initiating a few storms there, especially with a boost from the stalled surface boundary there. Surface-based instability may be sufficient for a few weak storms to pulse up until sundown although not expecting any convection to organize. As a result have low storm POPS across our southeast CWA for that time.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Pressure heights continue to increase across our area as the upper high "heat dome" across the Southwestern U.S. expands eastward approaching the Southern Plains while being pushed by a Pacific trough coming ashore on the West Coast. With the surface front washed out southern low-level flow returns as our temperatures get even hotter with dangerous heating across our entire forecast area into the weekend. Shortwaves may develop in the ridge pushing our next "summer" cold into northern Oklahoma on Monday or Tuesday but too far out in time to determine any heatwave relief from this for early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A cold front moving into northern Oklahoma this morning will slowly move south. Low levels remain dry, so no low clouds are expected and VFR conditions will prevail. There is a low (lower than PROB30) potential for showers and/or storms in northern Oklahoma both this morning and this afternoon/evening, although most of the precipitation is expected to remain farther north. If any showers or storms do develop, gusty winds and/or downbursts will be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 107 76 101 75 / 0 20 10 10 Hobart OK 108 76 105 75 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 108 80 108 78 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 102 70 100 71 / 0 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 102 72 98 72 / 20 20 0 10 Durant OK 107 81 107 77 / 0 0 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043- 045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.