textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of western Oklahoma through this evening; Red Flag Warning until 7 PM.

- Low-medium chance for rainfall on Tuesday-early Wednesday; greater chances for precipitation late this week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1252 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

An afternoon and early evening of fire weather danger is upcoming for portions of western Oklahoma and western-north Texas. The center of a shortwave ridge will hug the I-35 corridor throughout the day, leading to an exceptionally warm (by early February standards) and dry day to begin the new work week. Widespread peak temperature readings in the 80s are likely, and a few locations across northern and central Oklahoma may approach daily records for February 9th.

An ejecting northern stream wave will instigate lee cyclogenesis through the day, leading to a sharpening pressure gradient across the forecast area. Strong southwesterly wind gusts, as high as 30-35 mph, will continue across western Oklahoma through sunset.

Warm temperatures and strong diurnal mixing will contribute to very low relative humidity, possibly as low as 10% in spots, across far western portions of the area over the coming hours. Amidst increasingly dry fuels, problematic fire weather conditions are developing across portions of far western and northwestern Oklahoma. Any intrusion of high clouds across this area looks minimal through the peak of the burn period today.

A Red Flag Warning continues for portions of the aforementioned area through 7 PM this evening, and burning is discouraged in and near the warning area.

A strong surface front will begin pushing southward across northern Oklahoma during the predawn hours on Tuesday. The main sensible change with this feature will be shifting (southwest-to-north) and gusty winds (up to 40-45 mph possible). At present, the front is expected to extend near the Interstate 44 corridor towards daybreak on Tuesday.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1252 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The passing front, and influence from an approaching upper system, will offer potential for a few sensible weather highlights on Tuesday. Gusty north-northeasterly winds are expected to continue on Tuesday morning north and west of the I-44 corridor, as a notable surface pressure gradient remains and mixing into 40+ knot low-level jet begins. Winds will begin to relax into the early afternoon as both features begin to weaken.

While airmass modification in the post-front will not be overly noteworthy, especially considering what we can see at this point of the year, cooler temperatures are likely across central, western and northern Oklahoma during the day on Tuesday. With the front continuing to move slowly southeastward through the day, some locations across southern Oklahoma will observe their warmest temperature towards midday, with subsequent cooling into the afternoon. The I-40/44 corridors remain the epicenter for greatest temperature uncertainty on Tuesday, with higher confidence in 50s across northern Oklahoma and upper-70s across the eastern Red River Valley.

We are still eyeing low-medium potential for rain showers towards the afternoon, evening and into early Wednesday morning. Precipitation potential looks to remain focused along and south of the I-40 corridor, as a lifting upper system begins to interact with the previous frontal boundary. Rainfall totals are still forecast to remain <0.25" on average across the area by sunrise Wednesday.

Dry and mild weather returns on Wednesday, as high-amplitude ridging develops across the Plains. Weak cold air advection during the morning and lingering clouds will keep us cooler than the past weekend/Monday, though we still expect temperatures to peak a few degrees above climatological normal (in the 60s).

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1231 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

After the upper wave moves out of the southern Plains, models show some weak ridging developing over the region as a trough digs across the western U.S. This trough is expected to eventually approach and move across the region late this week into next weekend. At the sfc, models show another cold front moving across the region towards the end of the week. Rain and maybe some storms will be possible with this system late this week into the weekend. The above average temperatures are also expected to continue the rest of the week into next weekend although not as warm as Monday at most locations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Heating this afternoon, and an increasing pressure gradient will result in a breezy south to southwest wind this afternoon, especially across western Oklahoma. Increasing low-level flow this evening and overnight will result in low-level wind shear at most terminals. A cold front will bring a wind shift to most sites between 10-18Z Tuesday. Rather strong wind gusts can be expected behind the front with wind gusts of 30-40 knots. The strongest wind gusts will likely last 2 to 3 hours behind the initial wind shift and will gradually decrease. The frontal passage at DUA will occur after 18Z Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 53 59 40 60 / 0 10 20 0 Hobart OK 49 57 38 61 / 0 10 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 65 45 64 / 0 30 50 10 Gage OK 39 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 45 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 60 75 48 66 / 0 10 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ004-009-010- 014.

TX...None.