textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- First wave of rainfall potential will primarily stay west of the area.

- The next chances of rain will be across the northwest half of the area Monday Night/Tuesday, and areawide late Thursday through the end of the week.

- Above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

High clouds will be on the increase today as both the upper ridge just to the east and the upper low over the Mojave Desert shift slightly eastward allowing the plume of mid and high level moisture to shift eastward into the area. The upper low is expected to open up into a trough today and begin ejecting northeast. The precipitation area over New Mexico will shift slowly east with some potential for additional development across west Texas and the panhandles today. Any precipitation today in the Norman forecast area will be confined to northwestern Oklahoma. Highs today will be near or slightly lower than yesterday thanks to the increasing clouds and the upper ridge shifting slightly east away from the area.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The slower/farther west trend continues with any precipitation chances associated with the first wave ejecting from Arizona toward the Northern Plains. Precipitation chances are not expected to be any farther east than a Cherokee-Altus-Quanah line with this first wave, and 30+ percent chances of showers/storms is confined to far northwest Oklahoma north of a Gage-Woodward-Alva line tonight and tomorrow.

All of the operational synoptic models show a secondary wave developing over the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains tonight and moving toward the Southern Plains and aiding in developing showers and thunderstorms Monday Night and Tuesday. With the forecast trajectory, the precipitation chances would be across the northwestern half of the forecast area with no significant rain chances across the southeast. The NBM produces POPs of 40-60 percent across portions of northwestern Oklahoma late Monday night. There is some uncertainty though in the development and evolution of this secondary wave as the vort max seems to appear over the Sierra Madres associated with convection, giving at least some possibility that this may be associated with convective feedback in the models, although all of the operational models are showing somewhat the same development.

Regardless of the specific evolution, we remain under southwesterly flow aloft and will continue to be quite warm.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Any low-level cold air continues to be stuck in the northwestern United States or under the large scale mean trough over the western U.S., so our above average temperatures will persist through the rest of the week. A wave in the southwesterly flow aloft is shown by most models to approach late this week bringing more widespread rain chances Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be modulated by clouds and precipitation, but will continue to be above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. Mid to high clouds will continue to move over the area, with ceilings occasionally down near 5000-7000 ft possible across western OK, including CSM and WWR. Very light showers are also possible here but chances were too low to include and expect the vast majority of rain activity to remain to the west across the panhandles through tonight. Similar to the past couple days expect south winds generally around 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts during the mid morning to late afternoon period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 79 57 76 59 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 79 58 76 59 / 0 0 10 50 Wichita Falls TX 81 57 79 60 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 77 56 73 56 / 20 10 20 50 Ponca City OK 80 56 77 58 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 82 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.