textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A dryline is expected to mix towards the east today, with the potential for multifaceted hazards across the area. To the west of the dryline across western and northwestern Oklahoma, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize. RH values are expected to get down well into the teens across the aforementioned area, in addition to west- southwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Along and east of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will foster instability values over 3000 J/kg. An approaching mid-level trough will continue to move across the Desert Southwest today, with southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern Plains. With the aforementioned approaching wave, mid-level heights are expected decrease, which is a good indication of large scale ascent.

The 12Z RAOB at OUN indicated a very unstable and slightly capped environment. The anticipation is for daytime heating to mix out any additional inhibition by this afternoon, which will prime the environment for storm development. That being said, storms are likely to develop along the dryline this afternoon and spread eastwards through the evening and overnight hours. The downstream environment will support severe weather, especially as initial storms develop. The main hazards for storms this afternoon and evening will be very large hail (potentially up to 4 inches), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential will increase after 00Z, especially for locations north of I-40, where a 50-60 kt LLJ is expected into Wednesday morning.

There is some short term guidance that would suggest additional rounds of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The aforementioned wave approaches the area Wednesday, with additional strong to severe storms expected across much of the area. A dryline will once again mix eastward Wednesday afternoon, potentially near the Highway 81 corridor. Any storms that do form along this boundary will have the potential to become severe. All hazards will be possible with the strongest storms that develop. Storms generally should move off to the south and east during the evening hours.

Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night.

The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

One or more waves of storms is expected to develop in western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas this afternoon, and progress eastward (with northeastward storm motions) through the evening. Keeping prob30s for now given the line is expected to be broken and there remain some uncertainties in timing.

Clouds are remaining more persistent then previously expected, but some lifting is still expected. As on previous mornings, MVFR stratus will develop again in the morning up toward I-44 and along I-35. Winds will remain southerly and mostly gusty, aside from a wind shift in northwest Oklahoma toward morning.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 79 59 85 / 60 60 40 0 Hobart OK 62 85 52 89 / 60 40 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 84 60 90 / 70 50 20 0 Gage OK 53 82 46 89 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 63 80 56 85 / 60 60 50 0 Durant OK 65 79 64 86 / 80 80 50 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021.

TX...None.