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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Below normal temperatures persist into early this week, with a chance for light wintry precipitation Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Temperatures moderate Tuesday, ahead of a cold front that will bring colder weather late Wednesday into Thursday.

- There is a chance for light wintry precipitation Thursday into Thursday night.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

In the wake of the departing trough that brought the cold front yesterday, the surface ridge will push across the Plains with north winds veering to the east through the day. Additionally, another shortwave approaching the Great Basin with west-southwesterly flow and ascent will give way to increasing cloud cover through the day tonight and into tonight. Thus, temperatures may never warm above freezing this today across portions of northern Oklahoma. In general, highs will likely range from the lower 30s to lower 40s (from north to south).

Cloudy skies tonight will help to keep temperatures slightly insolated and around or above 20 degrees. Lighter winds will help keep wind chill values in the mid-teens (across northern and western Oklahoma) to the 20s (remainder of Oklahoma and into north Texas). A shallow layer of moist mid-level isentropic ascent may generate some light precipitation after midnight tonight, with increasing chances from south to north across portions of south/central Oklahoma and into northern Oklahoma. However, there is still a strong signal for a dry sub-cloud layer in which any light precipitation may likely evaporate before reaching the surface. Thus, a light drizzle of rain/freezing rain would be the predominant precipitation prior to sunrise with little to no accumulations expected.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Heading into Monday morning, the upper shortwave will continue to bring stronger ascent and moisture into the Plains. Southerly surface winds and warm air advection will attempt to warm temperatures above freezing at the surface, especially across portions of central/southern Oklahoma and into north Texas and play a key role in the precipitation types. Surface moisture may also be in question with soundings continuing to indicate a dry sub-cloud layer, which may lead to virga (through evaporation/sublimation). Thus any precipitation that develops is likely to be in the form of a drizzle or light intensity. The highest chance for accumulating precipitation amounts will be across southeast Oklahoma where rain is the most likely precipitation type. The best ascent and moisture in the dendritic growth zone (ice formation) with the shortwave will be across Kansas and near the Oklahoma state line with snow and/or ice pellets as the primary type. There is a low-to-medium (20-60%) chance for snowfall greater than 0.1" across far north-central and into northeast Oklahoma. Potentially warmer surface temperatures across central and southern Oklahoma and into north Texas will give way to light rain to freezing drizzle as the primary precipitation types. Any wintry accumulation of ice will be greatest along elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses as ground/road temperatures still appear warm enough for melting upon impact.

The shortwave will quickly move out by Monday evening with dry air bringing an end to any precipitation chances and clearing skies from west to east. Monday night will feature lows in the teens to lower 20s with radiation cooling from clear skies and light winds. Tuesday will feature southerly return flow with temperatures warming back into the upper 40s to 50s, along with sunny skies and low-end breezy winds across western Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Temperatures will moderate by Tuesday as mid-level heights rise with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

The next cold front will move through during the day Wednesday as a mid/upper-level trough embedded in the polar jet stream amplifies across the Great Lakes region. Depending on the timing of the front's passage, some locations may experience falling temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This cold front will return us to below-normal temperatures Thursday with highs likely in the 30s and 40s deg F.

In addition, there is the potential a wave in the subtropical jet stream may provide enough synoptic-scale ascent in the front's wake for a chance for precipitation Thursday into Friday. Depending on temperature profiles, there is the potential for a wintry mix--especially across the north and west (where the air mass will likely be colder). However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact track of the wave and the northwest extent of any precipitation. Therefore, the highest chance of precipitation is across southeast/south central Oklahoma, where temperatures are expected to be above freezing.

Similar to the previous cold air mass, temperatures are expected to quickly moderate by Friday and Saturday with a return to southerly winds.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

All of our terminals are likely to remain in a VFR category throughout the forecast period. Overcast Stratus deck expected to increase under current broken/overcast mid-level deck after 00Z and expecting ceilings to lower between 040-060 feet yet still maintaining VFR conditions. With another night of subfreezing temperatures there is a very low probability for a wintry precipitation mix generally east of the I-35 corridor to a "cold" rain in slightly warmer southeast Oklahoma after 06Z. However, probabilities are too low at this time to placed into the terminal forecasts except for KDUA in southeast Oklahoma. As a result terminal KDUA has a PROB30 for "cold" rain between 14-18Z which could lower the ceiling there to an MVFR category. As far as winds, a surface high across the U.S. Northern Plains region will maintain north to north-northeast surface winds across our terminals around 10 kts through 00Z. After 00Z surface winds should veer more easterly tonight at 5-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 28 36 21 50 / 0 20 0 0 Hobart OK 26 41 19 52 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 33 42 22 54 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 22 37 19 53 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 24 33 17 48 / 10 20 0 0 Durant OK 33 38 24 48 / 20 20 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.