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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 553 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
- Showers/storms possible this morning, especially across parts of northern OK. Potentially strong storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening.
- Rain/storm chances continue through the rest of the week into next weekend with near normal temperatures.
NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Showers and storms associated with an MCS continue to move across northern OK early this morning as a modest low-level jet maintains warm advection within a moist airmass. Expect that overall intensity and coverage of activity will wane over time as the low-level jet weakens and the line outruns better shear profiles to the west, but a few strong to severe wind gusts remain possible over the next couple hours before the line weakens. Storms may have a tendency to build southward toward daybreak as steering flow becomes weaker and more northerly on the eastern flank of building ridge across the panhandles.
Redevelopment of convection is possible later this afternoon along the residual front/outflow boundary across western OK into western north TX, though some uncertainty exists with regards to exactly where this would set up and this zone could end up further west or east depending on how convection evolves this morning. Wind shear will once again be limited this afternoon but instability will be sufficient for pulse like storms capable of strong wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.
Highs across northern OK will be cooler with clouds and easterly flow behind the outflow boundary, with readings here in the mid to upper 80s.
Ware
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to focus further west on Wednesday and Thursday as shortwave ridging builds over the area and a series of shortwaves move across NM into the OK/TX panhandles. Easterly low-level flow will help keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms either day, with the main risk being damaging winds.
Ware
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
After temporarily retreating westward, rain and storm chances will expand eastward over later Thursday into the weekend as a slow moving cutoff low in the mid to upper levels inches closer to the region. Several rounds of showers and storms are possible during this time frame, bringing a risk for locally heavy rain and a low (but non-zero) risk for severe weather.
Ware
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Area of showers and storms will continue to move across parts of northern and central OK this morning. Meanwhile, an outflow boundary also continues to move south. This boundary could be a focus for additional shower/storm development this afternoon. Rain chances continue into tonight, especially in western parts of the area. Winds will shift to the NE and E behind the outflow boundary.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 88 70 87 66 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 94 69 89 65 / 20 10 30 40 Wichita Falls TX 94 70 90 66 / 20 20 10 20 Gage OK 90 67 87 64 / 30 30 50 50 Ponca City OK 85 69 85 65 / 40 0 0 0 Durant OK 90 71 87 69 / 30 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None. TX...None.
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