textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues through at least midweek with triple digit heat indices and lows well above normal.

- Very low chances for rain/storms across southeast Oklahoma on Monday.

- Possible pattern shift by late week with less dangerous heating and increasing rain chances late Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Heat continues to be the main impact in the near term.

Another relatively warm morning with lows in the mid to upper 70s. This afternoon, highs will reach into the triple digits. Today will largely mirror yesterday with heat indices in the 105-110 across much of north central, central, and southern Oklahoma and north Texas (where we have an ongoing heat advisory)--driven by higher moisture in these areas. Air is a bit drier in northwest Oklahoma, keeping the heat indices closer to 100.

A few CAMs suggest isolated diurnal convection could develop this afternoon in eastern Oklahoma, potentially affecting our eastern counties. Have added 10% PoPs for this possibility, but most of the area is expected to remain dry under the dominating ridge.

Overnight lows will again stay up in the mid to upper 70s again, offering little relief from the daytime heat.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Continuing under the blocking ridge, Tuesday appears very similar to Monday both in terms of heat (perhaps a subtle trend toward a slightly larger area of 105+ heat indices) and very low chance (~10%) pop-up thunderstorms in our eastern counties. Cumulative heat stress (including overnight lows running 5 to 10 degrees above normal) will keep our heat risk in the major to extreme category across most of the area through Wednesday. For now, we've expanded the heat advisory into Tuesday.

The ridge begins to flatten Wednesday as several waves begin to make their way through the northern stream. For the first half of the day, we'll see temperatures heat up as on previous days, likely requiring another heat advisory. Then, toward late afternoon / evening (after peak heating), a cold front will enter northern Oklahoma bringing moderate rain chances (40-70%) with it into the overnight period. We'll be watching for any signals of severe potential with this front as well, but at the moment the parameter space appears rather tame (keeping severe chances low) with more supportive dynamics displaced further north.

Day

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

With models coming into alignment in bringing a cold front through late on Wednesday, confidence is increasing in heat relief on Thursday. North of I-40, we have 30-50% of temperatures below 90 degrees (virtually all ensemble members keep this area below 100). Southern Oklahoma and north Texas are likely to be warmer with 40-80% chance of highs below 100 degrees (0-20% chance for less than 90). Showers and storms will likely linger into Thursday morning with 20-30% chance for afternoon redevelopment (highest chances along the front). Temperatures will depend largely on progression of the front and extent of cloud cover and showers.

While models diverge greatly on what the synoptic pattern will look like over the weekend, they do have general agreement that the ridge will continue to exert some influence with positive 500mb height anomalies over us. Rain chances through this period range from 10-30% (highest in northern Oklahoma). Temperatures will likely be in the 90 to 105 degree range with the warmest temperatures more likely in southern Oklahoma / north Texas. Beyond Sunday, the interquartile spread increases to 15 to 25 degrees.

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Few to scattered cumulus clouds are expected during the afternoon with daytime heating (generally ~6000 to 8000 ft AGL).

There is a low chance (less than 20%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma (KDUA) tomorrow afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the TAF.

Winds will generally remain from south to southeast. Winds will become gusty in the afternoon before weakening around sunset.

Mahale

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

While no particular day stands out as problematic (RH values generally stay above 25 percent), hot temperatures and very dry fuels (90th+ percentile ERCs) warrant keeping a close eye on conditions through midweek.

Wednesday will bring a northerly wind shift with the front along with 20-50% chance for wetting rains (lowest in north Texas, highest in northeast Oklahoma).

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 103 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 100 76 101 77 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 102 76 102 76 / 10 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ085-086-088>090.