textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Near-record heat, elevated fire danger, and severe storms are expected today.

- Above-average heat continues through end of the week.

- Strong cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain chances and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

First, we are still dealing with elevated fire danger today. This fire danger is especially driven by very dry fuels being in the drought, and the weather, although not exceptional for wind and humidity, is sufficient to enhance the overall fire environment in the area of dry fuels. The Gracemont Fire in Caddo/Canadian County has become very active again early this afternoon.

Elsewhere a cold front is pushing through southwest Kansas and the panhandles from near Dodge City to east of Guymon. Most models suggest this will move into the northwestern portion of our forecast area before 00Z. With this moving into the area during peak heating, probability is high that we will see storms developing near the front late this afternoon. Although cloud cover has kept temperatures a little cooler in the far northwest, hot temperatures are lurking close by with high dewpoint depressions. SPC mesoanalysis shows a axis of 1500 J/kg of Downdraft CAPE from southwest to north central Oklahoma. With the dry low-level air, this creates the risk of both (a) strong downburst winds with any strong thunderstorms, and (b) the potential of high-based storms where lightning could create new wildfire starts.

The front is expected to remain across northwest Oklahoma through sunrise, so some cooler low temperatures are forecast across the northwest.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The cold front will wash out/lift north Wednesday morning, so we return to hot weather areawide. A Heat Advisory has been issued for south central and southeastern Oklahoma for Wednesday where there is a high probability that heat index values will reach at least 105. Northern Oklahoma may be a degree or two lower tomorrow without the compressional warming ahead of the front that we are seeing today so will not reissue the advisory there for tomorrow at this time. But it is quite possible that the advisory area may be expanded again in a subsequent forecast. The hot and dry weather continues into Thursday.

As with today, the weather conditions on their own may not reach traditional fire weather thresholds, but the humidity will be low enough that fire danger will continue through at least mid week due to the very dry fuels across much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The center of the ridge is prog'd to slow/stall in the vicinity of ArkLaTex by Friday as a strong trough departs the Pacific northwest for the northern plains. This upper trough pushes a cold front southward across the plains and is forecast to arrive into at least northern Oklahoma by Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms chances have trended higher for late Saturday into Sunday morning, with beneficial and widespread rainfall possible. With moderate instability ahead of the front, strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM run has high temperatures in the low 80's on Sunday and upper 70's on Monday for areas near and north of the I-40 corridor. Southeastern Oklahoma will be the last to benefit from the cooler airmass and is forecast to have max temperatures finally below 90 degrees on Monday. Rain chances linger on Sunday and depart our area by Monday morning.

Thompson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR category will prevail during the period, though ongoing scattered convection across portions of western into northern Oklahoma will offer potential for gusty-erratic winds at terminals here (i.e., KWWR) through just after sunset this evening.

A convectively-modified surface boundary will continue to sink southeastward across northern Oklahoma into early Wednesday morning offering potential for variable/shifted wind direction. A predominate south-southwesterly direction is expected by 13-15Z on Wednesday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 76 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 66 98 72 98 / 80 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 73 98 74 96 / 20 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 102 75 101 / 0 10 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 018>020-026-031-032-043-047-048-051-052.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ032-042-043- 046>048-050>052.

TX...None.