textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 547 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Rain is likely today across northwest, north-central, and later central Oklahoma.

- Breezy NNE/NNW winds, gusts of 25mph to 35mph, are expected over western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas today.

- Above-average temperatures return early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1243 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A developing, weak frontal system will bring rain to northwest Oklahoma within the next hour or so, with activity gradually expanding to north-central and west-central Oklahoma by late morning. Rain is expected to shift over central Oklahoma this afternoon and southeastern Oklahoma this evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are anticipated across portions of northwest into north-central Oklahoma, with lighter amounts southward.

Meanwhile, winds shift to the NE and begin to increase this morning over northwest Oklahoma as the surface low reaches the Texas panhandle. As the low tracks towards the Red River, breezy NE winds expand across western into central Oklahoma, and to a lesser extent, southerly winds also increase over southwest OK and western north Texas. This cyclone will continue to track near the Red River before reaching north-central Texas late afternoon or early evening.

Coolest temperatures are expected over northwest Oklahoma today, where persistent rain showers and lowest ceilings are expected. If temperatures drop into the upper-40's this morning over northwest Oklahoma as winds increase, it is possible wind chill values could decrease into the upper 30's. Interestingly, all of the REFS members depict afternoon temperatures in the upper 40's over portions of northwest and northern Oklahoma. The 00Z HRRR is an outlier (and quite bullish) and predicts temperatures in the OKC metro falling into the upper 40's mid-afternoon as scattered showers move in and as the cold core upper low passes overhead.

Rain is expected to decrease in coverage while shifting over east- central and southeastern Oklahoma by late evening.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1243 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

We should see clearing skies over northwest into parts of northern Oklahoma on Thursday night along with diminishing north winds. With low temperature-dewpoint temperature spreads and light winds over northwest Oklahoma early Friday morning and low temperatures in the mid-30's, patchy fog is possible there.

Friday will be cooler for most areas, and we will have to watch for model trends as some short-term guidance suggests high temperatures in the upper 40's over northern into central Oklahoma with overcast skies and drizzle. Another chilly night is forecast on Friday night into Saturday morning, with mostly cloudy skies and low temperatures in the mid-30's and 40's. Cloud cover gradually diminishes from north to South on Saturday with temperatures reaching the upper- 50's to upper-60's.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1243 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The long term is forecast to be dry with a warming trend beginning on Sunday into middle of next week. High temperatures will rise into the low- to mid-70's by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Storm system will move east across portions of the area today. It will bring a chance of rain along with MVFR ceilings. Precip will end from west to east late this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will return as well. Winds will go from south to north as well as the system moves east with gusty north winds on the backside of the system, especially across western and southwestern Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 43 58 40 / 70 40 0 0 Hobart OK 64 42 61 39 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 45 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 54 37 59 37 / 80 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 40 57 38 / 70 20 0 0 Durant OK 76 49 69 45 / 10 20 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.