textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record heat likely Wednesday into Thursday with near-critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Strong winds possible behind a cold front on Friday.

- Cooler Friday into Saturday.

- Low chances for rain or an elevated storm Thursday night across far northern OK.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Today is shaping up to be hot and breezy with elevated fire weather conditions in northwest Oklahoma.

Fire Weather: Elevated RFTIs in northwest and parts of western Oklahoma will be driven by low RH values as a dryline nudges across the border this afternoon. An RFD is in effect for this area.

Heat: Temperatures are still expected to break records this afternoon under the influence of warm southerly flow and sunny skies.

Winds will remain somewhat breezy overnight. Lows will be in the 60s.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Fire weather and strong winds will be the headlines for Thursday and Friday as wind-driven RFTIs become elevated to near critical. Heat will be a secondary concern on Thursday with records again on the line.

Thursday's fire weather will be primarily wind driven as strong southerly flow develops ahead of an incoming front. The low level jet axis is forecast to run roughly along a line from Ponca City to near Elk City during peak mixing hours (as it shifts eastward through the day) allowing for winds of 25 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. Northwest Oklahoma will have an RH component (offset partially by not quite as strong winds) to RFTI as the dryline nudges across the border again.

Thursday night will see good to excellent RH recovery (60 to 70 percent in northwest OK to near 80 percent everywhere else), but winds will remain gusty. A cold front will arrive overnight, bringing a shift to northerly winds. The strongest winds of the period will be just behind this front, especially as we approach mid morning on Friday. A wind advisory will likely be needed for this period. Additionally, there are some low chances for light showers/storms (unfortunately, no beneficial rain) across far northern Oklahoma Thursday night. These will present a low chance for dry lightning, however.

Strong north to northeast winds on Friday will result in another day of elevated to near critical RFTIs despite cooler temperatures (highs in the 60s) behind the front. RH values will be in the 20 to 35 percent range (lowest RHs in the northwest) in the area of concern.

RH recovery Friday night will be modest (around 50 percent). Low temperatures will drop as low as the mid 30s across northern Oklahoma Friday night.

Day

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Southerly winds make a return on Saturday and with one more day of mild seasonably normal temperatures. A low-level jet redevelops both Saturday & Sunday nights resulting in breezy & gusty south winds on Sunday & Monday. Sunday will also be the start of a warming trend with afternoon highs in the 80s. The return of hot & dry air and gusty winds over still dry ground vegetation will also increase the fire weather danger across parts of our area on Sunday & Monday afternoons.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low-level wind shear is possible overnight across northern OK with strong S/SW winds just off the surface. Winds at the surface will increase and become gustier Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will enter northwest OK Thursday evening, likely just after the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 65 92 51 63 / 0 0 10 0 Hobart OK 62 95 49 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 63 94 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 62 99 43 60 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 65 94 47 62 / 0 0 20 0 Durant OK 63 87 60 72 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>031- 033>040-044-045.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.