textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Record heat expected by the end of this week into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially near and behind a front on Sunday. - No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

500 mb heights rarely exceed 5850 meters around here in March. In fact, OUN has only reached 5850 during 8 March RAOB launches before. And yet, by later this afternoon the 585 dam line will move into our area from the west as an extremely anomalous ridge drifts closer. At the surface, a muted pressure trough will develop in far northwest Oklahoma and drift southward into southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas during the afternoon hours. It is within and just south of this weak trough that temperatures will peak. With that said, it won't exactly be chilly anywhere, with highs ranging from 85 to 95 across our area. Locally elevated fire weather is possible where winds become a little bit stronger, likeliest just south of the surface trough.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The short term will feature some intensely hot and dry air across the Southern Plains. On Friday, some model members attempt to bring another very weak cold front/trough southward from Kansas into the area. We could see a very similar surface response with hot/dry/breezy conditions just south of the front where winds veer more to the southwest. Instead of being in the Red River Valley, perhaps the I-40 region would be watched for this phenomenon. Fire weather is not explicitly forecast to be elevated at present, but in this type of hot/dry/extreme fuel environment, it won't take much of a breeze to get there.

On Saturday the upper-level ridge will start to break down and 500 mb flow will traverse the Rockies once more. The ensuing lee cyclone will add a typical southerly breeze - nothing to write home about under most circumstances, but enough here to bring back surefire elevated to near-critical fire weather. Additionally, any westerly/downsloping element to the wind could lead to a significant run of 100+ degree temperatures across the western part of our area. This would be the first 100-degree day for many locations (Wichita Falls and Lawton included, though they may be a bit too far east to join in the fun). Because of that, and because of the weather whiplash this week, heat headlines may become necessary despite the fact that traditional temperature/heat index criteria (designed for our summer season) won't be met.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Guidance continues to point toward a strong frontal passage occurring during the day on Sunday. Uncertainty remains extremely high in the effect that this FROPA will have on high temperatures, though it is likely that the prefrontal torch will be among the hottest readings we see all spring. This front is also of particular concern because of the fire concerns behind it. Temperatures will be slow to drop in the immediate wake of the cold front and will remain much warmer- than-average through Sunday afternoon. Though RH will recover some in the postfrontal airmass, this will be counteracted by winds that will gust 30-40 mph from the north behind the front. This will lead to locally critical fire weather primarily west of I-35 Sunday afternoon.

Unfortunately, relief from the heat behind the cold front looks to be transient. We will drop to only 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Following this downright Arctic blast, a rapid return to dry return flow on Tuesday will bring warming temperatures and renewed wildfire concerns. Then it looks like the mid-to-late part of next week will be another brief but potentially intense heat wave before another, stronger cold front eventually scours through. If you're looking for rain, don't hold your breath - guidance continues to look bleak.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail. A surface trough entering northern Oklahoma today will introduce some variability to wind direction.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 55 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 92 51 94 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 93 54 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 88 48 93 51 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 87 51 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 56 89 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.