textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- A round of rain moving through this morning with another chance late today with a few strong to severe storms possible.

- Widespread beneficial rainfall expected beginning Tuesday through the end of next week.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week, before cooling down mid-week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Multiple embedded shortwaves will continue to move east this morning and through the day Saturday as upper level ridge gets suppressed further south into south Texas into the gulf. As this occurs and the low level jet strengthens, expect to see an increase in showers/storms moving into or developing across western and eventually central and northern Oklahoma through the remainder of the night.

No severe weather is anticipated with this activity, but lightning and heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs of 1.4-1.7 inches are present across much of the area west of I-35.

As we go through the day today upper trough across the Plains will push east as height rises occur farther west through the central and southern Rockies. Although the morning convection will be play a role for later in the day, it appear by afternoon, with some breaks in the cloud cover, daytime heating will result in surface CAPE on the order of 1500-2000J/kg across western Oklahoma. Marginal deep layer shear will limit overall organization, but a few strong to severe storms appear possible. As this activity moves east into the evening anticipate a gradually weakening of the convection as instability wanes. Damaging wind gusts, some risk of large hail and heavy rainfall will accompany the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Lingering showers/storms will continue Sunday morning along and east of I-35 as the upper trough slowly shifts east of the area. By afternoon most locations will be dry as mid level heights rise with developing shortwave ridging once again develops out into the Plains. However isolated showers/storms will be possible as deeper moisture plumes remains and daytime heating results in increasing instability.

This shortwave ridging will keep rain chances minimal through the day Monday and will allow temperatures to rebound both Sunday and Monday back into the 90s outside of northern Oklahoma, A few locations near and south of the Red River may approach 100 degrees both days.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Sub-tropical jet coming off the Pacific will bring increasing amounts of moisture, including the remnants of Hurricane Polo north and northeast ahead of strengthening western trough. This will allow precip chances to increase beginning Tuesday.

The 00Z GFS has come in more in line with the Euro in a much slower eastward progression of the upper low through the southwest into the southern Plains this week. After the initial increase in precip chances Tuesday, abundant deep layer moisture and the slow movement of the upper low will bring an extended chance of rain through the remainder of the week and perhaps into next weekend. I'm reluctant to say this, but this would bring in the possibility of an increased chance of flooding rainfall, believe it or not as we go through the week, with very little chance of severe storms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The only thunderstorm chances within the next 6 hours will be in northern Oklahoma which could impact terminals KWWR & KPNC. Between 12-17Z the is a 30% probability for thunderstorms across all remaining terminals except for KDUA in southeast Oklahoma. Ceilings should stay high enough but visibilities could reduce briefly in rain resulting in a brief MVFR category should rain/storms pass over. After 17Z expecting all terminals remain in a VFR category. Probabilities will increase to 30% for storm activity after 00Z across all terminals except for KDUA in southeast Oklahoma. Weak low pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies will keep surface winds out of the south although some terminals may see periods of light variable winds tonight. By 17Z southerly surface winds speeds become sustained around 10 kts with gusts at 15-20 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 90 69 91 70 / 40 40 20 10 Hobart OK 90 68 92 68 / 20 40 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 97 69 98 70 / 20 40 20 10 Gage OK 88 63 87 62 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 84 65 85 65 / 70 60 20 10 Durant OK 93 69 96 70 / 0 20 30 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.