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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1015 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
- Drizzle and patchy fog could linger over northern and east- central Oklahoma into this afternoon, with patchy fog possible again tonight.
- Turning cooler mid-week with low temperatures near the freezing mark.
- Colder weather possible next weekend.
NEAR TERM
(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1231 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The occluding frontal system will exit our CWA this evening with persistent cloudiness gradually shifting eastward. Drizzle, light rain, and patchy fog remain possible this afternoon over north- central into east-central Oklahoma. Stratus is expected to linger over north-central and east-central Oklahoma tonight, with patchy fog redevelopment possible tonight into tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid/upper-30's over northwest and western Oklahoma to low 50's over east-central and southeastern Oklahoma.
Thompson
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1231 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over parts of east-central and southeastern Oklahoma. Some localized dense fog could also be seen. However, this area of fog appears to be rather transient as it moves southward during the pre-dawn hours. Other than the morning fog, mostly sunny skies are anticipated tomorrow.
A developing shortwave, which is currently over Idaho and Montana, deepens upon reaching the north-central plains tomorrow before turning towards the Great Lakes region. This upper-level system will push a decent cold front into Oklahoma and northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible behind the front. This surge of post-frontal winds reaches central and southwestern Oklahoma by late morning. While a few of the models suggest falling temperatures with FROPA in the morning hours, most CAMS suggest this will be relatively short-lived and afternoon temperatures will range from the mid-50's to mid-60's.
As a 1030MB surface high settles in behind the cold front, will see cold temperatures by Wednesday morning with highs remaining in the mid-/upper-40's over northern and parts of east-central Oklahoma. Fortunately, winds will be light and veering with the passage of the surface high. Low temperatures will be in the 20's and 30's both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
Thompson
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Surface ridge remains in place through the Plains for Thanksgiving day with some modification of the airmass allowing temperatures to rebound into the 50s and lower 60s by Thursday afternoon.
Surface ridge shifts east by Friday with breezy south winds developing. This will draw gulf moisture quickly northward and with strong waa expected by late Friday and Friday night showers and even a few thunderstorms appear possible. The precip will likely continue through the weekend as this waa pattern remains in place ahead of a large upper low dropping south across the western CONUS. Models were similar last night with timing of very cold air moving south through the area on Saturday, however the latest GFS is not bringing the front through until next Monday and not as strong. In addition the models are trending to a more closed, retrograding upper low off the California coast. This is all lowing overall confidence in the extended part of the forecast period, but do currently do have a mention of wintry precip by Sunday across northwest Oklahoma.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
IFR to LIFR conditions will continue across the eastern third of the area until Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the north and become gusty by the late morning to early afternoon. Winds should relax by sunset.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 63 47 60 34 / 30 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 40 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 45 66 36 / 30 0 0 0 Gage OK 60 36 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 47 58 29 / 60 20 0 0 Durant OK 63 50 63 39 / 90 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for OKZ007-008-012-013- 020-026-030>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...None.
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