textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Scattered showers/storm early this morning and then again this afternoon and evening.

- Heat indices around 105 in the southeast again this afternoon.

- More widespread storms Saturday/Saturday night with strong to severe storms possible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The primary driver in the weather pattern today is an outflow boundary that is currently positioned from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Dynamic frontogenesis has occurred with this boundary owing in part to subtle pressure rises across Kansas and subtle pressure falls in the panhandles. The boundary will likely slide a little further south by this afternoon.

With that in mind, the potential for impactful weather this afternoon comes in two forms. First of all, heat indices will again approach 105 in our eastern Oklahoma counties where latent heat fluxes have dominated a little more strongly in recent days. This will occur with winds veering south of the boundary, allowing highs in that region to breach into at least the mid-90s. Heat advisories continue across a few of our eastern counties.

The accompanying potential weather impact will be storm redevelopment late this afternoon through this evening. Forecast soundings suggest deep, well-mixed boundary layers with only modest overall instability on the order of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will be modest at most (15-25 knots of effective bulk shear). There is a bit of mid-level moisture showing up in model soundings as well, which is keeping DCAPE more in the standard summertime range of 1,600 or so J/kg. That is still sufficient for one or two downbursts with the strongest cores that do develop within the boundary's convergence zone.

Shower chances taper off tonight thought it wouldn't be a shock to see one or two rounds of weak convection with elevated instability and a 30 knot LLJ. Temps will drop into the mid 70s.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A second round of boundary madness is in play tomorrow, though the magnitude and extent of storms does look a little higher than today. This is in part because the ridge will begin to amplify and lift northward to our west, bringing us into more of a northerly flow regime aloft. Because of that, the flow pattern will be quite weak. In fact, convection-allowing guidance is explicitly resolving initial updrafts, then a pond-ring pattern of new convection blowing up as initial outflow boundaries surge. Because of that, short-lived downbursts and heavy rain are the primary concerns once again. PWATs are seasonally high, so while flooding isn't impossible, wouldn't expect obscene rain rates. The expected zones for storm initiation and progression begin in the evening just north of the OKC metro and continue through the night near and south of I-40 as the front is convectively reinforced.

We'll enter day 3 of the northerly flow/frontal boundary pattern on Sunday. The exact zone for storm potential is unknown, but based on pattern recognition and previous experience will likely extend across the southern half of the CWA toward the Red River.

Heat risk will continue to be an issue across Bryan/Atoka/Coal Counties where dewpoints have consistently sat several degrees higher during recent afternoons. However, for the rest of us we might start to see a trend back toward "cooler" temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s and slightly more manageable humidity.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The surface front is projected to settle into or south of the area late Sunday/Monday, and 500 mb heights and 1000mb-500mb thicknesses decrease a little bit, which looks to keep high temperatures closer to normal (i.e. not quite as hot as we have had recently) through mid-week, although will start climbing again mid-late week. Widely scattered, mainly diurnal, convection will be possible as the upper ridge will be somewhat weaker, but there is no significant forcing currently expected to increase POPs significantly in the early-mid part of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Most of the period will feature VFR conditions, with scattered mid/high clouds and a gusty then steady south-southwesterly wind across the region. Scattered diurnal storms are possible across northern Oklahoma, with low probability of impact (gusty/erratic winds) at KWWR and KPNC through the evening.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 95 76 96 / 0 30 40 40 Hobart OK 75 97 75 97 / 0 20 40 20 Wichita Falls TX 76 98 76 98 / 0 0 20 30 Gage OK 72 94 71 96 / 30 10 20 10 Ponca City OK 72 90 72 90 / 20 10 40 10 Durant OK 76 96 78 95 / 0 0 20 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ043-048-052.

TX...None.