textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Scattered storms possible tonight near the Red River, a few strong to severe storms appear possible.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

This mornings convection has produced multiple outflow boundaries across southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon. These boundaries along with a MCV over southeast Oklahoma will be foci for afternoon convective development. The most favored locations will be along the Red river into north Texas. Sufficient instability will be present this afternoon for a few strong to possibly severe storms as well as some locally heavy rainfall as PWATs remain high at 1.5-2 inches across much of the area.

May see some lingering showers/storms along and near the Red river overnight, perhaps stretching into southwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, anticipate much of the remainder of the area staying dry overnight with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Upper ridge builds east out of the central and northern Rockies into the northern and central Plain states as we go into the work week. This will bring us into weak east and northeast flow aloft. As it does we will see several minor shortwaves traverse the area from east to west this week.

On Monday we will continue see precip chances across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas as weak upper flow from the northeast will be slow to move things out of the area. Otherwise, expect to see slightly "cooler" temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with a light east wind.

Another weak upper wave will shift west and southwest through the southern Plains Tuesday with another chance of afternoon convection along and south of I-40. Not expecting any severe weather either Monday or Tuesday. With respect to temperatures and winds, Tuesday should be a repeat of Monday with slightly below normal temperatures and light east winds.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Not much change to thoughts on the longer term forecast as we move into a pattern with fewer rain chances. But again there are differences with how the upper pattern evolves through the week. The ECMWF is now building a stronger ridge into the area from the east by late in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Dry conditions and light easterly winds are expected to prevail through the period, though ~20% chances for showers/storms will linger along the Red River and south through Monday (not enough to include mention at this time). Patchy fog and stratus may develop along a similar corridor tonight, but as of now expect ceilings and vis to remain mostly VFR, though temporary reductions into MVFR are possible between roughly 09-13z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 70 90 69 / 60 10 10 10 Hobart OK 92 69 91 68 / 30 10 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 95 70 92 70 / 30 20 40 20 Gage OK 92 68 91 66 / 20 10 20 0 Ponca City OK 90 68 88 68 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 30 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.