textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon across portions of northwest Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and dry conditions.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase midweek.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Although a bit more wind than yesterday and a little warmer, another beautiful afternoon is expected across the area. Very low afternoon humidity, along with warm and breezy conditions will result in elevated to near critical fire conditions across far northwest Oklahoma this afternoon and have issued a Red Flag Warning for far northwest Oklahoma.

Some high clouds will move across the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening and along with breezy south winds continuing overnight, temperatures will remain on the mild side (middle 50s to lower 60s).

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

On Monday, the dryline will tighten up during the afternoon across western/central Oklahoma with elevated fire weather to the west and a modestly moist warm sector to the east. Although there will be a very minor mid-level wave and a descent dryline circulation, the lack of moisture and a strong capping inversion will likely keep much of the area dry. With that said, several of the models, especially the CAMs, try to overcome these limitations along the dryline late Monday afternoon with an isolated storm or two developing. If these storms do develop, limited instability with modest deep layer shear should limit the overall severe risk, but a low-end severe storm or two is not out of the question with the main impacts being strong wind gusts. Any activity that does develop will quickly weaken or dissipate by early/mid evening.

With regards to the fire weather concerns to the west of the dryline, the ERC values remain in the 75th-89th percentile across northwest Oklahoma as any significant rainfall continues to allude this area. However, an increase in cloud cover will limit insolation to a degree and a weak surface trough will keep the winds rather light across this area during the afternoon burning period even with temperatures in the lower 90s. No fire weather headlines are anticipate at this time, but a fire danger statement will likely be needed.

Monday night a rather strong cold is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma around midnight and push toward the I-44 corridor by sunrise Tuesday. Then pushing into southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon. This will create a rather impressive temperature gradient for early May from north to south. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s in the north to the lower 80s in western north Texas.

The south winds will continue to bring higher dewpoint air northward in advance of this front and by Tuesday afternoon, dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma will be in the mid/upper 60s. As the front encounters this better moisture there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing along the front late Tuesday afternoon and evening, although some residual capping may limit convection to areas south and east of the OUN cwa. If storms are able to develop across southeast Oklahoma, upwards of 1500-2000J/kg CAPE and deep layer shear of 50-60kts will be in place and sufficient for a few severe storms to be possible.

Meanwhile, further to the west and north a minor shortwave will move northeast out of northern New Mexico into Kansas Tuesday night. This may bring a chance of showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms to parts of northern Oklahoma overnight.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Precipitation chances will linger into early Wednesday across both northern Oklahoma and southeast Oklahoma as an upper level system tracks eastward across the plains.

Temperatures Wednesday are looking to be on the cool side (60s and 70s, but again with high uncertainty). Wednesday night could see temperatures dip as low as the 30s. NBM suggests a 25% probability that temperatures reach freezing in northwest Oklahoma.

On Thursday, we begin warming back into the weekend. This period seems mostly dry, though synoptic uncertainty is high.

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category throughout the entire forecast period. Gusty surface and strong low-level winds will be the main issue across our terminals overnight as the surface isobars will remain tight along with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface winds will stay gusty overnight out of the south up to 15 kts sustained while at least partial mixing into the low-level jet could keep gusts around 20-25 kts. Will maintain low-level wind shear through 17Z when the low-level jet starts weakening a bit. After 18Z will see surface winds across terminals KCSM & KWWR start veering more westerly as a dryline/surface boundary off the TX/OK Panhandles starts advancing into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile expect south/southwest winds sustained at 20 kts gusting 30-35 kts by 18Z across the rest of our terminals all east of the dryline. Another strong low-level jet strengthens early Monday evening with a return of low-level wind shear into most terminals by 00Z. Surface winds back more southerly remaining breezy and gusty after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 86 63 73 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 60 94 62 77 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 92 70 88 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 56 91 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 86 57 66 / 0 10 20 10 Durant OK 60 82 70 87 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.