textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Conditional risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening. If storms occur, all severe hazards would be possible including very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a low tornado risk.

- Drier air moves in Monday, with elevated to near critical fire weather expected across western/northwestern OK.

- Low storm chances across southeast OK Tuesday, better chances for showers and storms over the entire area Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A complex and conditional severe weather setup is forecast for today as the impact of yesterday's convection on the environment and the degree of synoptic forcing later today leave substantial question marks for whether we see storms this afternoon and where they may develop. Outflow from storms last evening has pushed deeper moisture largely south of the area early this morning with light easterly flow, patchy fog, and/or drizzle in place over much of the area. A surface low over western north TX is forecast to lift into western OK through the day, with strengthening southerly flow ahead of it bringing moisture and an unstable airmass back northward into southern/central OK. A shortwave currently located across California will move eastward through the day, but forcing from the wave will be late arriving and largely displaced west/northwest of the best instability. There are two main areas we will be watching today for potential storm initiation, with both areas being highly conditional:

1. Along/ahead of the dryline: Strong instability will develop ahead of the dryline with MLCAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg expected by mid- afternoon along with minimal capping. Shear will be more than sufficient for supercell storms with a risk for all severe hazards with 40-50kts of bulk shear perpendicular to the dryline and increasing low level shear by late afternoon into early evening due to a strengthening low-level jet. That said, very few models show initiation along the dryline as large scale ascent from the shortwave will still be to the west of this area during peak heating this afternoon. Additionally, convergence along the dryline appears relatively weak but a narrow window for storm development still appears possible between roughly 21-00z as capping erodes. Overall chances for storms development here are only 10-20%.

2. Warm front/triple point in northern OK: A bit better signal for storm initiation exists among the models across northern OK as the warm front/triple point lifts northward and serves as a source of low-level convergence. These areas will also be a bit closer to synoptic forcing from the wave to our west, although the arrival of large scale ascent from the wave still appears slightly misaligned with peak heating here. The degree of moisture return and instability across northern OK is also more uncertain than further south as some guidance suggests low clouds and cooler temperatures will hang on well into the afternoon, limiting the degree of destabilization. Storm initiation here (if it occurs) would likely be later (closer to 00z) as the wave arrives from the west and would be more likely if the wave ends up slightly faster than models depict currently. As of now the chances for storm development across northern OK are at 20-30%.

In summary, while chances are fairly low for storm development today across the area, any storm that does develop will be capable of producing impactful severe weather given the degree of instability and shear in place. We will continue to monitor observational trends closely this morning and hopefully a clearer picture will begin to emerge as to where (and if) storms may develop later this afternoon across the area.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Drier air will move into the area from the west Monday as the wave moves by to our northeast and low-level flow veers in its wake, becoming west-southwest at the surface through the day. With much drier air in place fire weather will make a return across western/northwestern OK, where elevated to near-critical fire conditions will be possible. However, given that greenup has occurred in many spots the area of greatest concern will continue to be across the portions of northwest OK that have largely missed out on appreciable rain the last couple weeks.

A weak cold front will move in from the north later Monday into Monday night but is forecast to slow/stall over the area Tuesday as another shortwave approaches from the west. Shower/storm development is possible along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the area, but will be highly dependent on frontal position which remains uncertain at this time. Highs across northern OK will be cooler Tuesday, only in the low to mid 70s, while areas south of the front near the Red River are forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Dry/cooler conditions are forecast across the area on Wednesday as low amplitude ridging will be in place over the southern Plains ahead of another shortwave across the southwest US. Shower and thunderstorm chances will then increase Thursday and especially Friday as the wave draws moisture northward over the residual frontal zone. Extensive warm air advection and isentropic ascent is forecast could lead to heavy rainfall across portions of the area (currently most favored across southern OK and western north TX). The severe risk appears more uncertain and will depend on whether or not sufficient instability can return northward.

Highs during this period will be below normal, mainly in the 60s to low 70s through the weekend.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas of IFR ceilings have developed again this morning, although not as widespread as one might think given the low-level moisture advection occurring. But with this moisture advection, the IFR conditions may expand into the central Oklahoma sites early this morning before the typical late morning rise of ceilings begins. Some showers and storms may develop this morning across the northeast and move northeast out of the area. Surface winds will become more southerly and increase today.

A 50 knot low-level jet develops this evening creating low-level non-convective wind shear across the entire area this evening and overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 84 69 88 54 / 20 10 0 0 Hobart OK 90 63 91 51 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 94 70 94 60 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 85 55 84 43 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 65 84 48 / 50 30 0 0 Durant OK 85 72 90 66 / 20 20 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.