textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

-Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday morning.

-A strong cold front moves through Saturday, bringing falling temperatures during the afternoon and gusty north winds.

-Below normal temperatures persist into early next week, with a chance for wintry precipitation Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Friday) Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A mid-latitude cyclone will deepen in the lee of Rockies as a mid/upper-level trough digs into the Plains today. The deepening surface low will result in gusty southerly winds today.

Warm air advection/isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching mid-latitude cyclone will also result in an increase in stratus cloud with overcast skies expected by afternoon. Increased cloud cover will likely result in slightly lower temperatures than yesterday with highs generally in 50s deg F even with gusty southerly winds.

With increasing ascent, areas of drizzle and light showers are possible by this afternoon across southern Oklahoma into north Texas.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Warm air advection/isentropic ascent will continue to increase this evening into tonight in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet (~55 to 60 knots). This will result in widespread showers along and southeast of I-44 with less coverage to the northwest. A few thunderstorms are also possible southern Oklahoma into north Texas, where some elevated instability is present.

The mid-latitude cyclone will accelerate toward the Midwest on Saturday, which will advance a strong cold front across the area on Saturday. The front will enter northwest Oklahoma early morning and will exit southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.

With the mid-latitude cyclone accelerating to the northeast, the strongest isentropic ascent/warm air advection will also shift the northeast. This will result in showers decreasing with time Saturday morning (though southeast Oklahoma will maintain a chance of showers until the front passes by as they'll remain within the warm conveyer belt).

The air mass behind this cold front is the coldest of the season with the air mass originating from Canada (temperatures are currently in the single digits near the Canadian border this morning). Strong cold air advection will result in a non-diurnal temperature trend with falling temperatures expected behind the front. The cold air advection, a tight surface pressure gradient, and 30 to 40 knot 925 to 850 mb flow will result in gusty northerly winds. A Wind Advisory might be needed Saturday. Any precipitation will end well before temperatures drop below freezing, so winter precipitation is not expected on Saturday.

Wind chills values will drop into the 20s and 30s deg F behind the cold front Saturday afternoon. These wind chills will drop into the teens and single digits by Saturday night/early Sunday morning, making for the coldest morning of the season.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2025

Sunday will be a cold day with low temperatures in the teens and 20s deg F and afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s deg F. Dry conditions are expected on Sunday with lighter north to northeast winds.

By Sunday night into Monday, a positively-tiled shortwave trough will quickly track across northern Oklahoma into Kansas. Synoptic- scale ascent associated with the wave will result in a chance for precipitation, including snow. The highest chance of accumulating snowfall is across northwestern Oklahoma with decreasing chances with southeast extent.

Currently, the track of the shortwave (i.e., near the Kansas/Oklahoma border) isn't favorable for a significant winter event with the highest chance of appreciable snowfall across Kansas. Nevertheless, light snow is possible across the northwest half of Oklahoma with a low (30%) chance of at least 1" of accumulation. If the track shifts farther southeast, the potential for accumulating snowfall will increase. A rain/snow mix is more likely to the southeast (near I-44 to the southeast) with higher temperatures. Across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas, the dry slot will likely limit precipitation.

A warming trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with a return to southerly winds and rising mid-level heights.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings will return to the area this evening as will showers across the eastern half of the area. Southerly winds will pick up today and persist through the period. A cold front will begin to make its way into northwest OK starting at the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 54 45 59 23 / 10 40 40 0 Hobart OK 54 46 61 22 / 10 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 49 67 26 / 20 40 20 0 Gage OK 55 40 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 54 43 52 20 / 0 50 60 0 Durant OK 58 45 61 28 / 10 80 80 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.