textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Patchy elevated fire weather in southwest Oklahoma / western north Texas today and in northwest Oklahoma on Sunday.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through at least next Tuesday, with cooler temperatures likely late next week.

- Chances for rain & storms return to portions of western and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon into evening. Strong-severe storms are possible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Elevated fire weather will be the main concern today, mainly across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Drier air is expected to mix down this afternoon, bringing western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma into the 17-22% range for RH (reasonable worst case: as low as 15%), with lesser chances for seeing some drying down to around 20% in parts of northwest and central Oklahoma. Winds will be breezier today with the strongest winds in northwest Oklahoma (15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph). ERCs are highest in western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma (65th to 75th percentile) where 30 day rainfall amounts are the lowest. Northwest Oklahoma is showing slightly lower values (55th-65th percentile). For now, will keep the current configuration for the RFD, where the lowest RH values and highest fuels are expected to align.

Otherwise, expect another hot (highs in the low 90s) and sunny day. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Our hot and dry pattern continues Sunday and Monday with high confidence (highs in the low to mid 90s). As moisture increases, lows will come up as well, reaching into the upper 60s by Monday morning.

Patchy elevated fire weather will be a concern in northwest Oklahoma on Sunday, primarily wind driven. Fairly widespread 15 to 25 mph winds with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range are expected on Sunday-- mainly along and west of I-35 with the highest gusts in northwest Oklahoma. RH's will be higher due to the southerly flow, generally staying above 25 percent. Scattered cirrus will move across the area during the day.

Winds will again be gusty on Monday, but slightly less so (right now they look to stay under the threshold for elevated fire weather). RH values will also be a tad higher, limiting fire concerns. At that point, heat becomes the bigger story as forecast temperatures start to approach record values.

Day

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Aforementioned storm systems still look to bring about more changeable weather, including the return of rain/storm chances, though focused areas and timing remain rather uncertain at this point.

Forecast confidence on Tuesday is reasonably high, with a lead wave perturbation expected to instigate scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms in a corridor stretching from the central Texas Panhandle into portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Provided increasing mid and upper-level flow overspreading an unseasonably moist/unstable boundary layer, potential will exist for strong- severe storms during this time as well.

Confidence regarding specifics on timing/amounts/severity of precipitation drops dramatically by Wednesday. The primary uncertainty remains how a rather complex upper air pattern evolves by this time. Even ensemble guidance/systems are currently rather divergent in their solutions, with the grand ensemble showing a more progressive upper pattern compared to a clustered ensemble mean (i.e., taking consensus from three primary ensemble systems).

What does this mean for you? While precipitation chances and eventually cooler/more seasonable temperatures are likely in some capacity across the region later next week, forecast specifics (i.e., temperatures, % chance and amount of rain, etc.) may change notably over coming updates, so make sure to check back as a more unified solution begins to emerge.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Southwest winds with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected today for most terminals, with the exception of light winds at KDUA. Marginal LLWS is possible tonight into Sunday morning across western and portions of central Oklahoma, but generally expected to be less than 35 knots. Otherwise, clear skies continue today with scattered cirrus moving in from the west towards Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 65 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 65 90 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.