textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Severe storms expected this afternoon/evening.

- Hot temperatures expected Sunday & Monday.

- Rain/storm chances return late Monday & persist through the remainder of the week, including some hope for meaningful rains in western Oklahoma!

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The main weather message this afternoon/evening will be a risk of severe storms. Current water vapor imagery reveals two notable features: 1) a shortwave trough/low over western Colorado and 2) ascent associated with the subtropical jet over west Texas. Regional radar mosaic shows midlevel convection advancing from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma with the latter. Models show that this accompanies a 50 kt jet that is shown to attenuate in the coming hours as it approaches the forecast area, and hence CAMs vary on eventual coverage of convection, particularly over western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. However, NWP trends seem to increasingly support the idea of strong/severe convective initiation favoring western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Additional storms will likely initiate and/or move in proximity to northern Oklahoma. Strong instability (SBCAPE 4000 J/kg) and sufficient deep layer shear (30 kt) exists for modestly organized convection that will present a risk of localized large hail and damaging winds.

The highest confidence for localized severe weather risks today will be from the 100th meridian to Highway 81 corridor... with perhaps more eastward extent to near I35 in north-central Oklahoma. Models struggle to progress robust convection eastward into central Oklahoma, so confidence for impacts in the OKC metro area is less...as convection appears to wane by late evening.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Ridging aloft will build over the southern Plains on Sunday and into Monday. As such... south to southwesterly surface winds will aid increasing temperatures. Expect widespread 90+ deg temperatures both Sunday and Monday... with a corridor of 100 deg temperatures possible from western north Texas northward over west-central Oklahoma. Models continue to show either a weak surface trough and/or frontal features in proximity to the Kansas/Oklahoma stateline and this could support thunderstorm initiation, especially late Monday. If storms do develop (30-40% probability), high LCLs and modest shear would regulate hazards to hail and damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Numerical model solutions depict a 590 dam ridge over the southern Plains on Tuesday. A notable upper air low/trough is depicted evolving over the East Coast of the U.S. by midweek. After a hot start to the week here in Oklahoma/Texas, there is evidence that this pattern evolution may support the back side/western periphery of surface ridging settling into the region with persistent southeasterly surface winds to reside over Oklahoma and western north Texas through the remainder of the work week. By the second half of the work week, the ridge aloft will give way to broad and modest (~15-20 kt at 500 mb) cyclonically curved flow and falling geopotential heights which may support periods of convection, particularly within the upslope regime along the higher terrain to our west, and in vicinity of a gradually decaying frontal feature. With weak flow aloft severe weather threats will be generally limited, but periods of heavy rainfall may become possible as models show precipitable water values around 1.75 inches which would push daily climatological maxima. As such, mean solutions suggest around 1 inch total precipitation accumulation over the western half of Oklahoma Tue-Fri, with 90th percentile solutions suggesting at least low probabilities of localized totals approaching 2.5 inches by the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible (20-30%) over western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas this afternoon, progressing eastward through the evening. Southerly winds will follow a typical diurnal pattern with afternoon breeziness today and tomorrow.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 97 73 97 / 20 0 0 10 Hobart OK 69 99 72 99 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 97 72 97 / 30 0 0 0 Gage OK 65 97 69 97 / 20 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 69 93 70 93 / 20 0 0 20 Durant OK 75 93 75 94 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.