textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Colder air from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, then a quick warmup.

- No chances for precipitation through the next seven days.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

One of those days where the forecast is dominated by a shallow cold airmass that even short-range models are desperately trying to catch up to. Temperatures are warming up late this morning across central and western Oklahoma just ahead of a surge of northeast surface winds and advancing stratus in northern Oklahoma. Other bands of stratus exist in western north Texas and eastern Oklahoma that are creating a fragmentary landscape of insolation at this hour.

However, there's an over-arching theme to the near-term forecast: it will be colder than the models are showing. Particularly where northeast winds and stratus are already entrenched, it's hard to envision much if any warming happening. That will leave high temperatures in the 30s in the northern and northeastern part of the CWA, while we will likely see 60s further to the south. Cloud cover also will be a challenge but is likely to see a general increase especially as the sun starts to set. Winds will shift northeasterly and become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens.

That steady north-to-northeast breeze will continue tonight with temperatures dropping. Actual air temperatures will be cold but not outlandish - a little under 10 degrees below normal in most spots - but with the breeze, wind chills will get into the single digits in most spots. We likely will have some spots report wind chills under zero in northern Oklahoma.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A strong surface high pressure (close to 1040 mb) will be centered along an axis from Iowa to northern Oklahoma tomorrow morning. This will promote clearing skies and calming winds. We may even see a flip to light southerlies by the end of the day. Because of that, it may not "feel" quite as cold as it is, but highs will still remain in the 30s to low 40s.

Southerly winds will increase tomorrow night. This will give us another night of rather brisk wind chills. But, with the sun coming out during the day on Monday, the trade-off will be a quick end to our abrupt Arctic airmass event, with highs climbing near to above normal.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The main weather message into next week remains above-normal temperatures and dry surface weather. A weak upper wave will move across portions of Texas on Tuesday, offering another dry frontal passage. The Pacific origins of this system will limit concern for additional cold/cooler in its wake. In fact, temperatures look to continue warming into the midweek, with 70s possible across southern zones by Wednesday. We will want to keep tabs on possible fire weather concern by this time, with potential for overlapping areas of <20% afternoon relative humidity and gusty southwest winds.

The passage of a stronger system/front is becoming more evident as we head towards the end of the week, though disagreement exists on the degree of resulting sensible weather impact for our area.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Areas of low stratus and fog make for a difficult forecast this afternoon as visibility and ceiling reductions are scattered and variable. The greatest concentration and longevity of IFR (occasionally LIFR) ceilings will continue to be across eastern and southeastern OK, with stratus across northern Oklahoma more patchy and showing signs of eroding on the south/west edge. Stratus across southwest OK and western north TX may approach KOUN/KOKC this afternoon but confidence is not very high. Additional stratus is possible tonight behind a strong cold front that will bring gusty north winds to the area tonight into Sunday morning. Stratus will then clear from north to south during the morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 19 34 24 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 53 19 38 23 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 24 40 25 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 45 15 39 25 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 38 14 32 21 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.