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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Unseasonably warm today with near record breaking temperatures across our south

- Rain/storm chances increase this evening and overnight but limited in coverage becoming more widespread late Sunday. - Our wet trend will continue next week with a potential for two more weather systems bringing rain/storms into our area.

- A weather system on Wednesday could bring a severe risk across southeast Oklahoma

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The first of potentially 3 weather systems will be coming through increasing rain chances across parts of our forecast area during the near into short term periods. However, rain coverage will be more limited and spotty across central through southeastern Oklahoma in the near term period where POPs are in place.

Our flow aloft is a typical late Winter split-flow pattern with a long-wave trough in the polar jet over much of the northern U.S. while the Southern Plains remains under the warmer weaker ridged subtropical flow jet. In the lower-levels a surface cold front was stretched across Kansas with southerly flow enhanced by a low-level jet advecting gulf moisture across eastern Texas into Oklahoma. The increasing moisture under sunny afternoon skies will continue to destabilize the air although staying well capped for any surface based convection. Warm air advection had produced a few earlier rain showers/weak elevated storms and RAP guidance continues to show strong isentropic ascent through the mid-levels on the 305 K surface through the afternoon. As a result will maintain low POPs through this afternoon across central through southeast Oklahoma mainly east and south of the I-44 corridor for a potential of isolated elevated convection and/or showers. However this potential will decrease in time (15-20%) as the low-level jet continues weakening along with the strongest isentropic forcing both shifting more eastward as well as CAM guidance. A system moving through the polar jet will be pushing the aforementioned cold front into northern Oklahoma this evening and stalling overnight near the I-40 corridor. Although staying dry along the front, isentropic ascent from warm advection just ahead of the front could reinitiate some elevated showers and/or convection across central through southeast Oklahoma generally east and south of I-44 through sunrise Sunday. Not expecting anything severe with any of this elevated convection as weak MUCAPE instability should limit any organization. However, strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with sufficient D-CAPE values could support strong wind gusts and/or small hail. NBM has a good handle on temperatures this afternoon as we will stay unseasonably warm with much of our area seeing 80s highs.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Our nearly stalled cold front is expected to linger along the I-40 corridor Sunday then finally push into southern Oklahoma to just south of the Red River on Monday as reinforcing colder air surges in from the northeast. NBM a bit warm-biased with the colder air so used a slightly cooler CONSMOS guidance for Sunday's MaxT. Much of northern Oklahoma will see a strong 20-25 degree cooldown from the previous day. A series of vort max disturbances propagating downstream through the mid-level ridging across southeast Kansas could impact northcentral Oklahoma while still seeing potential ascent over the frontal boundary in the mid-levels along several isentropic surfaces. As a result will maintain elevated showers/storm POPs keeping them along and east of the I-35 corridor through late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. POP coverage becomes more widespread across our area and highest (up to 50%) by late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours as our stalled frontal boundary makes a final push southward into northern Texas potentially tapping into surface-based moisture. A series of vort max's will also be increasing across our mid-levels keeping POPs in the forecast for Sunday night. Both surface-based and elevated instability still expected to be weak for any organized severe storms, but still could see a few strong storms especially along the frontal boundary which could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Although post-frontal on Monday much of the cooler air will linger across our northern CWA as north winds weaken becoming light in the afternoon. Our area will be dry and nearly POP free Monday afternoon on with south winds gradually returning overnight for moisture recovery before our next weather system.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the 100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma. Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible, especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be the greatest.

Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This will play a key role in the timing and location of where the greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even heading into the first week of March.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing across much of the area. An area of agitated cumulus exists in southern and eastern Oklahoma from which a few showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. A wind shift is currently noted from Hollis toward Woodward, east of southerly winds of 15-20 knots are noted. This wind shift will move south and east, eventually bringing east-northeast postfrontal winds to most sites tonight. Another round of showers is expected to develop late tomorrow morning, this time across northern Oklahoma.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 53 70 46 / 10 20 20 50 Hobart OK 81 52 71 43 / 0 10 10 50 Wichita Falls TX 86 58 81 53 / 10 20 10 40 Gage OK 78 41 60 33 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 79 43 55 39 / 10 10 40 50 Durant OK 80 58 79 57 / 20 20 20 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.