textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of the area. Winds could gust 30 to 40 mph from mid morning through mid afternoon. - Cooler temperatures and improving fire conditions are expected Friday into the weekend.

- Dry conditions and warming temperatures could bring fire weather back to the area by Tuesday of of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

One more day of near-critical to critical fire weather is expected today as dry, warm, and breezy conditions will be in place ahead of a cold front that will cross the area tonight. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. Ahead of the front, winds could gust to 30 to 40 mph as the pressure gradient tightens this morning into this afternoon before decreasing mid to late afternoon, gradually becoming northwesterly. A decent temperature gradient is expected across the area by this afternoon, with mid 50s in northwest OK to low to mid 70s in our southeast counties. Cooler temperatures will move in this evening and overnight behind the cold front with winds continuing to gradually decrease and becoming northerly. Lows will drop into the mid 20s north to upper 30s south.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Cooler temperatures and lighter winds will bring a break in fire weather conditions through the weekend as highs return to near average. A weak shortwave will track across northern OK and KS late Friday into Saturday which will prove to be too far north to bring much precipitation to the area. Very low chances (<20%) for precip remain across far northern OK Friday night, with temperatures just cold enough for the potential for snow to mix with rain. However, anything that falls will be light in intensity and brief in duration with the vast majority of precip expected to remain in Kansas.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Near-average temperatures will persist into Sunday and Monday as surface high to our north maintains northerly flow over the region. A moderating trend is then forecast for Tuesday as winds become southerly and ridging builds in from the west. These gusty south winds and dry air could combine to bring a return of fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday for at least parts of the area. No significant precipitation chances appear on the horizon for the next 7-10 days.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with only high clouds expected.

Westerly winds will become gusty this morning. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest and then north as a cold front moves through. Winds will decrease in speed this evening/after sunset.

Mahale

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Fire weather will once again be a major concern today before a cold front finally brings the area a break for Friday into the weekend. Winds will veer through the day today as a surface low tracks eastward across KS. Tightening pressure gradient and mixing will lead to increasing westerly winds this morning, with gusts to 30 to 40 mph possible across central and northern OK. Winds will then gradually become northwesterly as the surface low moves further east which will help bring in cooler temperatures from the north by mid to late afternoon across northwest OK. Many CAMs still show a belt of drier air spreading across southern and central OK late morning into the afternoon, with RH potentially near or below 10% within this corridor. This will create near-critical to locally critical fire weather conditions for these areas. The timing of the system is such that we may see an earlier peak in fire conditions than the past couple days as the pressure gradient will begin relaxing by mid afternoon and cooler air begins moving into the area in earnest as winds become northwesterly. Therefore, the greatest overlap in low RH and gusty winds appears to be from roughly 18-21z, with gradual improvement seen from 21z-00z and more rapid improvement after sunset as temperatures cool and RH increases, though the shift in wind direction this afternoon and evening could cause issues for firefighting efforts on any established fires.

With cooler air moving into the area behind tonight's cold front, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for the rest of the week and through the weekend. Precipitation chances have decreased further late Friday into Saturday and we now expect dry conditions across the area this weekend through the at least the middle of next week. Warmer temperatures and strengthening southerly winds could bring a return of elevated to near-critical fire conditions by Tuesday to at least parts of the area.

Ware

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 32 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 65 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 55 23 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 62 26 51 28 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 72 40 66 43 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>047-050-051.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.