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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least early next week.
- Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night and continue through Friday.
NEAR TERM
(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
A cool front will provide minimal relief for most of us this afternoon. Highs behind this boundary are still expected to be in the upper 90s, while locations ahead of the front will reach triple digits. Heat indices for some locations along the Red River will reach 115F this afternoon.
There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to develop across southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas this evening, primarily in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Main impacts with any activity will be lightning.
Bunker
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
The aforementioned front will wash out Thursday, and winds are expected to come back around to the southeast. Hottest heat indices will be across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon, where a heat advisory will be in effect through the afternoon and early evening.
A shortwave trough will move across the central Plains Thursday and will dive southward across the southern Plains Thursday night. Storm chances will increase Thursday night into Friday morning across the northern half of the area. Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening across the area as the wave moves across the southern Plains. Heat indices Friday will still be between 105-110 F Across most of the area, so expect additional heat headlines in the coming days.
Bunker
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
The ridge will expand back over the region this weekend into early next week, maintaining triple digit highs over the area and squashing precipitation chances to near zero. Higher humidity may also bring a return of heat indices near or over 110 degrees for much of central/eastern OK by Sunday and Monday. Unfortunately, long range ensemble data suggests strong upper ridging is likely to remain in place through the middle and potentially through the end of next week, favoring a continuation of above normal temperatures over the area and keeping rain chances very low.
Ware
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Generally easterly wind will become generally southeasterly after sunrise Thursday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 73 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 Hobart OK 74 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 100 76 101 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 101 76 102 / 0 0 20 20 Ponca City OK 70 91 74 95 / 0 10 10 20 Durant OK 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ021-022- 033>037.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ033>035-038- 040>042.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ036-037- 039-043>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>085-087- 088.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ084-087>089.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-085- 086-090.
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