textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Widespread hard freeze this morning with wind chill values in the single digits and teens.

- Record heat possible by the end of this week into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially Tuesday, with no precipitation chances through at least the next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Chilly temperatures will be the story this morning with breezy north winds producing wind chills in the teens for much of the area with some single digits across northern OK. Northerly flow stays in place through the day as the upper trough departs to the east. Highs will top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s by this afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will once again drop below freezing for much of the area, but lighter winds will keep it from feeling quite as cold.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday will be transition days as a large upper ridge begins to build across the western and central US. Dry return flow could lead to elevated to near critical fire conditions Tuesday afternoon across much of the area as winds increase from the south and afternoon relative humidity drops below 20%. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday for most areas west of I-35. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid 60s (east) to mid 70s (west), with most areas then adding another 10 degrees to highs Wednesday afternoon.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The warming trend will continue through the end of the week into the weekend as the upper ridge to our west builds even further, with 500 mb heights forecast to rise above record values across the southwestern US by Friday into Saturday. NBM continues to show widespread 90+ degree temperatures Thursday into the weekend as 850 mb temps soar to 20-25C. Daily record highs are likely to be set and the potential is there for one or more of our climate sites to set all time record high temperatures for the month of March. Greater uncertainty remains on Sunday as some ensemble members show a cold front attempting to move into northern OK, though fewer members are showing this scenario than there were yesterday. Disagreement then increases farther into early next week on whether or not the upper ridge breaks down or quickly rebuilds across the western US. Regardless, this pattern will offer little to no opportunities for rainfall as Gulf moisture remains cutoff and our area sits under dry west/northwest flow aloft.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Skies have become clear this morning and are likely to remain mostly or completely clear for the next 24 hours. Winds have settled down markedly from yesterday's windy conditions, but we will still see frequent 25-30 knot wind gusts from the north during the day today. After sunset, winds will drop dramatically and shift to light southerly around midnight.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 27 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 51 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 52 31 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 50 29 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 42 23 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 48 29 62 45 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for OKZ004>006-009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ083>090.