textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, but not as hot as recent weeks.

- Low chances for precipitation each day across western OK and western north TX through Thursday, increasing and expanding east into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Light north-northeast surface flow continues across the area in the wake of yesterday's cold front, now draped across north/central TX. Low-level moisture has lingered behind the front which has helped promote continued occasional shower/storm activity in the area. Many CAMs suggest we could see additional development through the morning across central/southern portions of the area, seemingly tied to weak warm advection and veering flow in the mid-levels. Given the weak forcing, expect activity to be fairly isolated/scattered and severe weather is not anticipated.

Drier air is expected to advect into the area later today from the northeast, helping push rain chances to our south and west by the afternoon. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, mainly 80s with some low 90s across southern OK and western north TX.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Northeast flow will transition to southeast Wednesday into Thursday as the sprawling surface high moves further east. As it does so upper ridging will begin to build once again across TX into OK, with strengthening southwest flow on the western periphery of the ridge across NM into the panhandles. This will lead to warming temperatures locally, with highs pushing back into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area. To our west, moist upslope flow and weak subtropical waves within the moisture plume on the west side of the ridge will promote blossoming shower and storm chances. Some of this activity could make it into western OK and western north TX at times, but the bulk of it is expected to remain to our west during this period.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The upper ridge is forecast to flatten and move east towards the end of the week into the weekend as troughing across the west coast deepens. This will help bend the subtropical moisture plume eastward into our area and allow for increasing shower/storm chances across western OK and western north TX Thursday night into Friday, with chances then expanding across more of the area as we head into Saturday and Sunday. That said, veering/drying flow and weakening forcing may lead to dwindling shower/storm coverage as activity makes it into central/eastern parts of the area.

Temperatures will remain well above average through the end of this forecast period, with highs climbing above 90 degrees areawide, with some portions of southern OK into western north TX potentially getting back close to the 100 degree mark, especially if shower/storm coverage ends up more limited.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 11Z. There is a 30% probability for rain showers in southwest Oklahoma to move only over terminal KCSM in the next two hours (18-20Z) but expecting the convection to stay well to the south. There is a chance that stratus may redevelop after 11Z reducing ceilings at least an MVFR category at all terminals except for two near and south of the Red River (KDUA & KSPS). Did go lower with ceilings for potential IFR category at 3 of our terminals in northern Oklahoma (KPNC, KSWO, & KWWR). A surface high pressure circulation up in the U.S. Great Lakes Region should keep surface winds out of the northeast across our terminals at 10 kts gusting to 15 kts with sustained wind speeds decreasing 5-10 kts after 00Z. After 15Z surface winds may veer in direction out of the east across most of our terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 63 89 66 90 / 0 10 0 10 Hobart OK 64 90 68 92 / 0 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 67 94 69 95 / 0 10 0 10 Gage OK 61 86 64 87 / 0 20 30 50 Ponca City OK 59 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 68 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.