textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon across portions of western Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and dry conditions.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Two main concerns today will be elevated fire weather in northwest / western Oklahoma and a conditional risk for strong storms in southwest Oklahoma / western north Texas. Both will be driven largely by a dryline pushing into western / central Oklahoma.

Fire Weather: In northwest Oklahoma, where fuels are still in the 75th to 89th percentile, elevated RFTIs will be largely driven by low RH values (low to mid teens). Winds will be a limiting factor with speeds in the 8-13 mph range expected. Increasing cirrus will also be a limiting factor.

RFTIs will be higher in southwest Oklahoma under the axis of stronger winds (running from southwest Oklahoma into central Oklahoma). That said, greenup will be a limiting factor in this region.

Storms: CAMs suggest a few isolated storms initiating off the dryline late this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in southwest Oklahoma / north Texas. Environment looks to support elevated storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. Capping will be a limiting factor both in coverage and storm severity.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front is forecast to enter northwest Oklahoma by midnight Monday night, approaching I-44 by dawn, and pushing into southeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. This will bring both storm chances (southeast Oklahoma) and much colder temperatures.

Cold: Tuesday's cold front will result in a strong temperature gradient across the forecast area, with highs in the 50s / 60s across northern Oklahoma to highs in the 70s / 80s across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

This gradient will continue Wednesday as westerly surface flow helps keep north Texas on the warm side. Northwest Oklahoma will have the potential to see frost or freezing temperatures Wednesday night. Latest NBM probs have us in the 30-50% ranges for reaching freezing temperatures.

Storms: The front will serve as a focus for storms Tuesday afternoon as it enters southeast Oklahoma. The environment would support severe hazards. That said, there is a question whether storms initiate within our southeast counties or are limited to areas south and east of our forecast area.

Additional showers and a few storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave moves across the central plains.

Day

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Synoptic uncertainty during the late week period remains high. In broad strokes, we're looking a mild Thursday followed by a warming trend into the weekend. Most models keep us dry Thursday through Saturday, but there are a few members that bring precipitation on Saturday (low chances).

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category throughout the entire forecast period. Gusty surface and strong low-level winds will be the main issue across our terminals overnight as the surface isobars will remain tight along with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface winds will stay gusty overnight out of the south up to 15 kts sustained while at least partial mixing into the low-level jet could keep gusts around 20-25 kts. Will maintain low-level wind shear through 17Z when the low-level jet starts weakening a bit. After 18Z will see surface winds across terminals KCSM & KWWR start veering more westerly as a dryline/surface boundary off the TX/OK Panhandles starts advancing into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile expect south/southwest winds sustained at 20 kts gusting 30-35 kts by 18Z across the rest of our terminals all east of the dryline. Another strong low-level jet strengthens early Monday evening with a return of low-level wind shear into most terminals by 00Z. Surface winds back more southerly remaining breezy and gusty after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 86 63 66 48 / 10 10 0 10 Hobart OK 95 61 69 47 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 93 69 76 52 / 10 10 0 10 Gage OK 91 51 64 41 / 0 0 10 30 Ponca City OK 86 57 63 46 / 10 30 10 30 Durant OK 83 71 84 57 / 0 10 10 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.