textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Below-zero wind chills likely Friday night into Saturday morning across much of Oklahoma.

- Light snow/flurries possible Friday evening across northwest/western OK, no accumulation expected.

- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal for much of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Some light snow will be possible late this afternoon as an upper trough moves south/southeast from the western Great Lakes toward the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Radar does show some relatively light echoes in the Dakotas and Nebraska early this morning in association with the jet streak shifting around the west edge of the trough, and this will move toward the area this evening. Initially the surface temperatures across northwest Oklahoma may allow any precipitation to start off as rain/sprinkles, but temperatures are currently expected to remain below freezing across north central Oklahoma so primary precipitation type would be light snow. Any precipitation amounts will be light and the models in general show very little (if any) QPF, so no significant impacts are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The main weather issue tonight into Saturday will be colder weather as a reinforcing shot of cold air today with a mid 1040mb surface ridge moving over the area by sunrise Saturday morning. Lows will be near or below zero in north central Oklahoma to the mid teens in north Texas. Minimum wind chill values will be below zero through much of Oklahoma approaching negative double digits in north central Oklahoma. The Cold Weather Advisory still looks valid.

The potential for flurries/light snow discussed in the near term will continue into the evening and overnight hours. Right now, the models show the humidity to be sufficient in the dendritic growth zone in the areas of precipitation that it should be snow. Some of the models show this axis of sufficient moisture to be rather narrow however. Will keep an eye on the trends to make sure we don't get a sneaky transition to freezing drizzle, although right now that looks like a low-enough probability event that we will keep precipitation as snow and just monitor for the potential.

Saturday will be the coldest day of the forecast period with the strong surface high over the area. Southwest/downslope low-level flow will warm temperatures for Sunday as the surface ridge shifts to the south.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The next potential for precipitation will be Tuesday/Tuesday night as a trough approaches in the northwest flow aloft. However the low-level moisture will be a late arrival and the models in general have backed off on how widespread the perception will be. Current NBM confines 20% or higher POPs to areas east of roughly a Shawnee to Madill line which seems reasonable at the moment looking at the dynamic ensemble-based scenarios. Of course some individual runs like the operational ECMWF keep some potential farther west into central Oklahoma, and we will still have a few days to better judge the timing and strength of the system, but the smaller precipitation footprint looks reasonable overall right now.

Overall the forecast for the next work week is for near or above normal temperatures. Fortunately at this time, we do not see a day with an overlap of low humidity and strong winds to raise fire weather concerns over into the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

North winds will prevail through the period with a low chance for patchy fog across western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma tonight. Confidence was too low for any fog development at SPS tonight, so have opted to leave it out of this TAF issuance. Amendments will be made with the changing trends. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to move in from the north across much of northern into central Oklahoma through the evening hours tomorrow. There is a low chance for light snow and/or flurries, with the greatest chances for light snow across northwest Oklahoma with a PROB30 in at WWR from 00-06z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 37 8 24 16 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 45 8 29 15 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 45 14 30 18 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 49 8 34 19 / 0 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 32 0 21 12 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 11 30 17 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Saturday for TXZ083>090.