textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Our heatwave and dangerous heat will persist through next week.

- Fire weather remains a concern given hot temperatures and ongoing drought/very dry fuels.

- Low chance for rain/storms on Sunday across southeast Oklahoma, but otherwise dry through next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A widespread Heat Advisory will be in effect this afternoon across all but two of our counties in northwest Oklahoma due to heat indices between 105-109 possible.

Mesonet observations showing a pseudo-dryline stretched across the OK/TX Panhandles with the hot muggy air to the east across our entire area. Expecting this moisture gradient to punch eastward into parts of northwest Oklahoma advecting slightly drier air into Roger Mills & Ellis Counties. As a result it could keep heat indices below 105 degrees and below advisory criteria across those two counties. We will need to monitor this dryline advancement and make adjustments to the advisory if needed. Otherwise dangerous afternoon heating remains this afternoons weather hazard. Although could see up to scattered CU near & east of I-35 this afternoon where surface moisture will be strongest (lower 70s dewpoints), expecting clear afternoon skies to the west producing maximum solar heating and triple digit high air temperatures up to 104 degrees. Our Heat Advisory expires early this evening prior to sundown as our temperatures start diurnally cooling. There could be storm activity initiating this afternoon on the Southern High Plains through through west Texas although expecting it to stay to our west with only some Cirrus blow-off from the storms increasing across our western forecast area for tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper jet remains in a blocking pattern across the western and northern parts of the country blocking the ridge between the Great Plains and Midwest Regions with a closed off upper high "heat dome" parked right over the Central through Southern Plains. As a result our heatwave will persist into the weekend with heat headlines for both afternoons. All of our forecast area will see triple digit high temperatures for both days with afternoon heat indices between 102-109 degrees. Will plot a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon across all counties except west-central through portions of northwest Oklahoma where slightly drier surface moisture may keep the triple digit heat indices below 105 degrees. There is some uncertainty with potential cloud cover in the mid-levels & weak high- based convection across the eastern half of Oklahoma on Sunday afternoon. The GFS most aggressive with the NAM the least and ECMWF in-between. This could affect afternoon heating east of I-35 but will not deviate with Sundays NBM MaxT this far out. However, will add low 16% isolated storm POPs across southeast Oklahoma with weak/low-end moderate instability.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Ensemble signal remains consistent in showing an unseasonably strong upper ridge remaining centered near/across our area into next week, despite at least one stronger upper trough continuing to impinge from the west. This will keep the streak of upper-90s to mid-100s afternoon highs and >105 deg F heat indices rolling on into next week. While nil chance for precipitation is currently advertised in our forecast, can't rule out the low chance for diurnal showers/storms on Monday across eastern Oklahoma.

The big question is when exactly the pattern breaks, even for just a few days. Right now, there is *some/modest* signal in ensemble and deterministic guidance that potential for precipitation and perhaps moderated temperatures arrives by next weekend (12th-14th). Something we will be watching with keen interest over the coming days.

Ungar

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Overnight a few high clouds, especially across the northwest, otherwise southeast winds will diminish this evening and shift to the south across much of the area. Winds will remain rather light through the day Saturday with some afternoon high-based cu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>008-010>013- 015>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-018>020-025-026-028>032-036-037-039>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.