textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms today, some severe. The main threat will be hail across northern Oklahoma, but all severe hazards will be possible in the south.

- Cool today in the north, but near-record heat in the south.

- Areas of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday, but severe weather is not expected..

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Thunderstorms developing early this morning. Some may be severe. The severe risk will persist through the afternoon hours.

Complex weather situation evolving this morning. A 30-40 knots southwesterly low-level jet is beginning to develop and interact with the surface front extending near the Red River up into the Texas panhandle west of Amarillo. Isentropic lift is expected to increase above the frontal surface and elevated convection has already begun to form across the Texas South Plains. Meanwhile, the portion of the front near the Red River is expected to stall and then lift northward as a warm front. With dewpoints in the mid 70s lurking south of the front in north Texas that will advect north with this warm front, we will see increasing surface-based instability into north Texas and southern Oklahoma this morning. So while the main threat of severe thunderstorms this morning will be elevated storms producing hail, we will also have to watch near the boundary where the increasing surface-based instability and wind shear could be enough for the potential of surface-based supercells.

With time, the warm front lifting will stall out again and start moving back south/southeast as a cold front as a surface high over the northern/central Plains shifts southward behind a northern stream wave. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the front this afternoon as it moves back south. With increasing diurnal instability, severe surface-based thunderstorms will continue to be possible until the front moves out of the forecast area late this afternoon or this evening.

With the front only expected to move so far north today and cloudiness expected north of the front with the isentropic lift, temperatures across northern Oklahoma will be seasonably cool. But temperatures south of the front will be quite warm with highs expected to be in the 90s across western north Texas. The forecast high of 93 at Wichita Falls would tie the daily record. /26

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

With the front today moving out of the area late this afternoon or tonight and a surface ridge building down the Plains, cooler weather is forecast through mid week. Dry weather is expected Wednesday. Shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft and/or developing mid- level isentropic lift start increasing precipitation chances Wednesday night into Thursday and chances increase more as a mid- level trough approaches from the southwest. Some areas may receive locally heavy rainfall, but the severe weather risk remains low as surface instability remains well to the south of the area.

Temperatures will remain seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday as the cool post-frontal airmass remains in place and clouds become more widespread.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Precipitation is expected to become more widespread on Friday, especially in the south, with showers and thunderstorm chances persisting into Friday evening before ending as the mid-level trough moves east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be seasonably cool again Saturday before a warming trend through Tuesday. After this system exits Friday evening, there are no significant precipitation chances through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A warm front is located near the Red River with widespread stratus (and MVFR ceilings) north of the front, and this stratus is spreading to cover more of the area this morning. Ceilings will slowly lift today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near and north of the front today, and the first storms are moving toward western north Texas south of KCDS and southwest of KSPS. Thunderstorms will become more widespread today across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Winds will become more northerly later today as more cooler and drier air begins to move into the area, and this will help to clear out the low clouds late today and this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 47 69 49 / 40 0 0 0 Hobart OK 80 45 73 49 / 20 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 92 52 73 54 / 60 0 0 10 Gage OK 69 38 70 44 / 10 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 63 44 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 Durant OK 86 55 70 56 / 70 40 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.