textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Areas of fog with the potential for locally dense fog are expected this morning, especially across north central into central Oklahoma.

- Patchy frost is likely across north central into central Oklahoma this morning.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A ~1024 mb surface high remains the primary influence on the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas once again this morning. With the weak surface pressure gradient, light and variable winds are creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This is leading to large temperature variations over short distances with temperatures in the 30s and 40s deg F. Patchy frost is likely across north central, central, and east central Oklahoma, where the lowest temperatures are forecast (mid 30s deg F). A Frost Advisory remains in effect for this area.

The light and variable winds, combined with a nearly saturated boundary layer, may also lead to the development of fog this morning. The most likely area to see fog is central, north central, and east central Oklahoma (where relative humidity is the highest/closest to saturation). Any fog should dissipate by around mid morning.

For this afternoon, the coverage of high clouds will be less than yesterday and more confined across southern Oklahoma and north Texas with overall more solar insolation/sunshine. This will result in a warmer afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the low 70s deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

With light winds, patchy fog is possible once again Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be slightly warmer weather as southerly winds increase across Oklahoma and north Texas. The warmer weather will especially be noticeable Monday night into Tuesday morning, with low temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s deg F as southerly winds advect higher dew points/moisture northward.

An upper-level low will eventually lift into the Southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is limited, so the chance for rain is ~10% or lower across western north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Otherwise, the warming trend continues Tuesday afternoon with highs in the 70s to near 80 deg F.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The synoptic-scale pattern will change across the continental United States as a longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the country. This pattern will allow a cold front to advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. Currently, the cold front is most likely to move through on Wednesday. However, the cold air may lag behind the initial wind shift with the coolest air arriving for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances also look to be near zero/limited with the front with the more appreciable synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast.

How cold will the air mass be behind the front? The Southern Plains will be to the southwest of the strongest cold air advection, which means the chance of a significant cool-down (for November) is very low. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles, with the cooler end of ensemble guidance only lowering high temperatures into the 50s deg F (which is slightly below normal for mid-November). Currently, The most likely scenario is highs in the low 60s (northeast) to the low 70s deg F (southwest).

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The RAP and HRRR models forecast patchy fog in northern Oklahoma (mainly west of KPNC), but overall the models signals are not too strong for fog. But skies are clear across northern Oklahoma, winds are light to calm and humidity is above 95 percent across portions of the area, so there does appear to be at least some potential for fog. Have maintained some reduced visibilities across north central, central and west central Oklahoma in the TAFs but the highest potential for IFR visibilities will be in north central Oklahoma.

Otherwise, mid and high level cloudiness will persist Sunday morning across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 69 46 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 69 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 48 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 69 43 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 72 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-012- 013-018>020-026-030>032.

TX...None.