textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 302 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Areas of dense fog will continue from northwest into southeast Oklahoma through the late-morning. A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 10 AM Thursday. - Heavy rain and strong/severe storm potential Thursday afternoon across south-central into southeast Oklahoma.

- A warming trend is expected into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A dynamic weather system will offer widespread precipitation along with localized (south-central into southeast Oklahoma) concern for heavy rainfall/severe weather later today.

In the meantime, areas of fog (locally dense) and low clouds/drizzle continue across most of the forecast area. Fortunately, unlike early yesterday, temperatures are well above freezing areawide this morning such that freezing fog will not be a concern. Still, morning commuters should exercise caution and be prepared for sudden changes/drops in visibility. A Dense Fog Advisory will continue across the eastern two-thirds of the area through 10 AM.

The center of our much discussed weather system is quite pronounced on water vapor imagery early this morning, progressing just east of the Sandia Mountains of New Mexico. Ascent with this feature is beginning to promote shower activity across the Texas Panhandle, and should begin overspreading our far western/southwestern areas towards 4-6 AM this morning. Coverage and intensity of precipitation still appears likely to increase into the late morning/early afternoon across our Red River counties, as frontogenetical forcing increases on the periphery of the approaching upper low. A few lingering showers and/or drizzle may remain across central into eastern Oklahoma near and after sunset, on the backside of the departing low pressure center.

A corridor of heavy rainfall (1-3 inches of accumulation) is likely across portions of far south-central into southeast Oklahoma by this afternoon. A combination of unseasonably high moisture content (preciptable water magnitudes nearing maximum of climatology) and at least scattered convective elements (thunderstorms) should lead to a period of efficient and heavy rainfall. Given recent rainfall (1-2 inches on Tuesday), and potential for similar or greater magnitudes over short timescales this afternoon, flooding chances will exist across the aforementioned region.

The potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms also exists across similar areas (far south-central into southeast Oklahoma). Latest guidance continues to increase confidence in the warm sector remaining south of our area this afternoon (perhaps as "close" as the Interstate 20 corridor). Even so, with the center of the upper low (cold pocket aloft) tracking near the Red River, an axis of marginally-sufficient elevated instability looks to emerge here during the early to mid-afternoon. With favorable kinematics in place for organized thunderstorms, a few may ultimately emerge posing a risk for hail and strong winds. The most likely timing for this threat will be between 12-5 PM Thursday.

After precipitative weather comes to end by the late evening, another round of overnight fog is likely. This includes the potential for dense fog across the western one-half of the area.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Outside of low precipitation chances across northern Oklahoma on Friday, a trend towards mostly dry weather and warming temperatures remains on track. A lead wave looks to quickly progress out across the Central Plains during the day on Friday. A few widely scattered showers may emerge beneath the cold upper low as it moves near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Chances for thunder with this activity are very low owing to nil instability currently progged in hi-res ensemble guidance. Another embedded vorticity maxima (and associated surface cyclone) looks to quickly translate across the area on Saturday, though currently offering <10% chance for precipitation with greater ascent focusing to the east/north of the forecast area.

Above-average temperatures look to be prevalent both Friday and Saturday. This includes the potential for widespread afternoon highs above 60-degrees on Saturday.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Temperatures will continue to escalate into Monday before a cold front brings a return of seasonable/cooler weather. An upper- level ridge will be the dominant synoptic player across the Southern Plains during the late week into weekend. This, along with advection of warmed/downsloped airmasses (from the High Plains), will contribute to temperatures warming towards very unseasonable readings (60s to 70s). In fact, portions of western- north Texas currently have a 10-20% of seeing a high temperature at or above 80-degrees on Monday.

A notable surface frontal passage is currently advertised for Monday evening, with a return towards seasonable temperatures by the middle of next week. At this time, the chances for precipitation with the front are <10%.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Widespread IFR conditions persist this morning, except for some of the southwestern area with some areas of MVFR with slightly higher ceilings. Scattered showers are moving into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma this morning and will become more widespread and spread east through the day. Visibilities and ceilings will be quite variable as these showers move through, but still generally expect MVFR-IFR conditions through the forecast period. Fog will develop and ceilings will lower again later tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 52 42 56 42 / 50 20 10 0 Hobart OK 52 41 58 38 / 30 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 44 64 43 / 90 10 0 0 Gage OK 49 38 55 35 / 20 10 20 0 Ponca City OK 53 41 55 40 / 10 10 20 0 Durant OK 57 47 63 44 / 100 50 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>008- 010>013-015>020-022>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.