textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms on Saturday evening & night; some risk may linger into Sunday afternoon.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Much of the day today will remain dry in the wake of thunderstorms that moved through the area yesterday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and a return of south winds will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s with low to middle 90s across the west.

Meanwhile, the front that moved through parts of the area yesterday afternoon and evening has stalled across southern Oklahoma and is expected to wash out later this morning. As it does so, low level moisture will begin to return northward across western north Texas and western Oklahoma as south winds return. By late in the afternoon a dryline will take shape near the 100th meridian and as weak upper level forcing impinges on this boundary isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Depending on moisture return could see modest instability develop, better being further south with the higher dewpoints, which will continue to move northward into the evening hours. Storms, initially look to be rather high-based, but some damaging wind and hail risk will accompany the stronger storms.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

As we go into the evening and overnight hours, although the mid- level flow remains a bit messy, it does appear that a couple of minor upper shortwaves will translate east and southeast out of the central Rockies into the central and southern Plains along with another surface cold front. Ahead of the front the northward transport of moisture will continue as well as the development of isentropic assent. This will result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. This will also result in an increase in instability and low-level and deep-layer shear and a continued risk of severe storms through the overnight period. Damaging winds and large hail will continue to be the main hazards, but depending on amount and quality of the moisture and improving wind profiles, some tornado risk could increase with any established supercells across western into central Oklahoma. The possibility of multiple rounds of rain/storms overnight into Sunday morning could result in some hydro issues developing as well.

The front or effective boundary(outflow) is expected to continue to progress southward Sunday morning and push south of the Red River by early afternoon. Rain will be slow to end from north to south during the day and there is a chance for some strong to severe storms to linger into the afternoon hours on Sunday across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Lingering cloud cover and rain will also keep temperatures quite a bit cooler Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s with a few lower 80s

Clouds should clear Sunday night and a cool surface ridge will remain across the Mid-Mississippi southwest into Oklahoma on Monday. Monday appears to be the pick of the week with sunny skies, light winds and after a cool morning, afternoon temperatures expected to climb into the 70s and low 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Still looks like an upper ridge will build east out of the Rockies into the Plains through the middle of next week, with much warmer temperatures expected during this time frame. There is a weak front that enters northern Oklahoma late Tuesday that may bring a shower or isolated thunderstorm to portions of north central into northeastern Oklahoma. Otherwise, much of the week looks dry and warm to hot. Some near record heat may occur, especially across the west. With lack of moisture across the west, some elevated fire concerns may also occur along with the heat, especially by the latter part of the week.

There are hints in the models that the upper ridge may break down as we approach the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. There is some guidance that shows IFR ceilings at a few sites Sunday morning but too uncertain to put in any TAF at this time. A few isolated/widely scattered storms could develop and affect portions of western OK/western north TX late this afternoon and evening. The higher chance and more widespread showers/storms will be overnight into Sunday morning. Some of the storms could produce strong variable winds and large hail. Winds will also be shifting this TAF period, especially overnight into Sunday morning as outflow boundary(ies) and/or front moves across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 87 61 71 49 / 0 80 90 10 Hobart OK 91 61 75 48 / 0 40 70 0 Wichita Falls TX 91 65 81 54 / 0 10 80 20 Gage OK 90 54 70 42 / 20 40 50 0 Ponca City OK 84 57 70 45 / 0 90 60 0 Durant OK 85 66 78 57 / 0 30 90 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.