textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY, with highs near 105 degrees and heat indices 105 to 115 degrees.

- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Today will mark the beginning of what looks to be an extended period of very hot weather for the area as a large upper ridge parks itself over the southern Plains. Rising heights and warming mid-level temps, along with a westerly (downslope) surface wind, will help push high temperatures well over 100 degrees across the entire area this afternoon, with many locations forecast to surpass 105 degrees. Perhaps the hottest temperatures today will be across north-central OK ahead of a weak front where compressional warming ahead of the front (pre-frontal "torching") could nudge temperatures close to 110 degrees in a few locations. Mercifully, the 70+ degree dewpoints we have been experiencing recently are forecast to mix mostly to our east this afternoon, meaning heat indices are likely to be within a few degrees of air temperatures for most of the area, but still expect some areas along/east of I-35 could see heat indices 110-115. Bottom line, this afternoon's heat could prove dangerous for anyone spending extended periods of time outdoors this afternoon and everyone is encouraged to take breaks from outside when possible and to stay hydrated!

A few of the convective allowing models are showing a signal for isolated showers and storms this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. With a dry subcloud layer expect that anything that develops will struggle to produce much in the way of rainfall. The best chance for an isolated shower/storm will be across northern OK close to the weak frontal boundary, but even here chances are only about ~10%.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The weak front will backdoor farther into the area from the northeast Wednesday, eventually stalling out across southwest portions of the area. "Cooler" air will work into portions of northern and central OK behind the front, with highs here only in the 90s Wednesday afternoon, with another day of 100s elsewhere across southern/western OK and western north TX. Could once again so some isolated convective development Wednesday afternoon near the stalling boundary, but chances are only ~10% for any one location.

The front will dissipate Thursday but winds across eastern OK will maintain a bit of a southeast component, helping keep temperatures from soaring too quickly. Expect highs of 100-105 west of I-35, with mid to upper 90s east.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A weak shortwave will round the northern portion of the upper ridge on Friday, helping send a front into the area. Models are still not in great agreement on precipitation chances with the front, but at least isolated showers and storms appear probable for at least portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening. Upper ridging will then strengthen further over the region this weekend into early next week, bringing a return of areawide triple digit heat and lowering precipitation chances to near zero through the remainder of the long term period.

Ware

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail and light south/southeast winds will veer westerly by mid-morning. A weakening frontal boundary moves into north-central Oklahoma shifting winds to the north/northeast. Isolated showers and storms are possible primarily over portions of north-central Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 106 78 98 74 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 105 77 102 75 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 105 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 104 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 103 74 92 71 / 10 0 0 20 Durant OK 104 80 100 76 / 0 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>017-021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>026-028>032-040>043- 046>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.