textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Record heat expected by the end of this week into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially Sunday.

- No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Thermometers across our area will keep on rising today as a smothering ridge moves in from the west. The trend throughout the day will be for a very weak area of low pressure to develop in far western Oklahoma. An equally weak surface trough to the east of this low will be ground zero for the warmest temperatures with weakening winds. Temperatures will sit in the mid-70s to mid-80s during the peak of daytime heating. Despite RHs once again being below 20 percent, light winds will keep fire weather low.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Remarkably similar conditions are expected tomorrow with a massive ridge to the west, a weak surface low/frontal trough bisecting the area, and very hot temperatures. The main difference is that this time the weak frontal trough will be accompanied by modest downsloping westerlies. Modest though they may be, this will bring temperatures up another 10 degrees so that we start pushing into daily record territory.

No forcing mechanism arrives between Thursday and Friday to change the pattern, so we'll just expect more of the same to occur. Our forecast is yet a couple of degrees higher as sensible heating impacts compound over multiple days. Heat risk will be elevated, especially across western north Texas. No chances for rain in the short term.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The large-scale pattern finally becomes unstuck on Saturday as the ridge wobbles eastward and deamplifies. Unfortunately for us, that actually means height rises, and Saturday is increasingly looking like the peak of the heat wave for most people. Expect widespread highs in the 90s and it would be a mild surprise if we do NOT see some triple digit readings across western north Texas in the afternoon. Heat risk will be elevated across a wider area and moderate in parts of western north Texas. Heat headlines may well be needed given the climatological anomaly this is.

A rapidly-advancing cold front introduces a heck of a lot of uncertainty into the temperature forecast on Sunday. Grand ensemble data shows a plausible spread in high temperatures of about 30 degrees near I-40; mid-60s if the front is faster, mid-90s if it's slower. What we do know is that the front will reduce temperatures from north to south as it passes, and that ahead of it (likely in western north Texas) the prefrontal torch could bring triple digits into play again. Fire weather will also come back into play in the much windier environment behind the front.

It looks like that "cooldown" (to average or slightly above average temperatures) will hold for a day, maybe two, before a second prong of the heat wave potentially develops toward the middle of next week. Precipitation chances continue to look bleak.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Low level wind shear will continue at our eastern TAF sites until morning, impacting primarily KPNC and KSWO. Southerly winds will continue to have a bit of a breeze (10 to 15 mph) through the night, becoming light in the morning. Wind direction will be somewhat variable tomorrow as a surface low approaches the area.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 85 48 95 50 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 82 49 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 83 49 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 80 47 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 78 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.