textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding this evening through Sunday morning.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a diffuse dryline across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles into southwest Kansas in tandem with an approaching mid-level wave late this afternoon into the early evening. The environment ahead of the dryline will capable of supercells with large hail and damaging wind gusts as they move eastward through the evening across western into central Oklahoma. Given the scattered coverage, many locations won't see storms from this round--but if you experience a storm, it'll likely be quite intense. With a strengthening low-level jet into the evening, there will a low tornado risk with any sustained supercells.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase markedly overnight as an amplifying low-level jet will result in increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection. These thunderstorms may organize into one or two small-scale complexes/clusters that will move to the southeast through the overnight hours. The areas most likely to experience thunderstorms are north central, central, east central and south central/southeast Oklahoma.

While the magnitude/risk of severe weather is lower with the overnight storms when compared to the daytime storms, some risk for damaging wind gusts and hail will continue given the presence of vertical wind shear and elevated instability. In addition, heavy rainfall/flooding will be a risk overnight into Sunday morning--especially in any urban areas or locations that usually susceptible for flooding.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Remnant thunderstorms will be ongoing Sunday morning with a continued risk for some severe weather and heavy rainfall/flooding. This activity will continue to move to the southeast Sunday morning. The risk of severe weather Sunday afternoon will be highly dependent on how far south the thunderstorms advance Sunday morning with redevelopment expected along its outflow/the effective cold front. There is also the potential for redevelopment of elevated storms north of the effective front Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The most likely area for this is near or just north of the Red River.

Cool and dry weather is expected in the front's wake Sunday night into Monday morning with lows ranging from the low 40s (northwest Oklahoma) to the upper 50s (southeast Oklahoma).

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Still looks like an upper ridge will build east out of the Rockies into the Plains through the middle of next week, with much warmer temperatures expected during this time frame. There is a weak front that enters northern Oklahoma late Tuesday that may bring a shower or isolated thunderstorm to portions of north central into northeastern Oklahoma. Otherwise, much of the week looks dry and warm to hot. Some near record heat may occur, especially across the west. With lack of moisture across the west, some elevated fire concerns may also occur along with the heat, especially by the latter part of the week.

There are hints in the models that the upper ridge may break down as we approach the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Scattered storms are expected through late this evening across Oklahoma. Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible through the overnight hours and all day tomorrow with some uncertainty in the coverage and intensity in activity. Greatest confidence in strong to severe storms will be across southern Oklahoma into western north Texas. Any storms will be capable of erratic and gusty winds, along with large hail and lightning. Low clouds will fill in from north to south during the overnight and morning hours tomorrow with some MVFR to IFR ceilings possible. The showery activity will begin to clear across northern Oklahoma towards the end of the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 70 50 75 / 70 80 10 0 Hobart OK 62 74 49 79 / 30 50 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 82 54 80 / 20 70 30 0 Gage OK 53 70 41 79 / 40 70 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 71 45 76 / 80 60 0 0 Durant OK 66 79 58 77 / 40 90 40 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.