textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Chance of light rain today and tonight for southern portions of the area

- Widespread rainfall is likely end of the week into this weekend

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

As a cold front continues to push southward, temperatures behind the front are largely in the 50s. Parts of northern Oklahoma will fall below freezing tonight.

Gusty north winds will continue through the afternoon before diminishing toward sunset. That said, gusts are not reaching advisory criteria, so the wind advisory has been canceled early.

An upper low traversing eastward across central Texas will bring light rain to southern parts of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. We are starting to see some radar echoes along the Red River, though dry lower levels may keep this as virga initially, transitioning to light rain later as the column moistens.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1245 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Upper level ridging starts to move in tomorrow, pushing rain chances out. Mostly sunny skies, cooler temperatures (upper 50s / lower 60s), and considerably lighter northeast winds are expected Wednesday in the wake of Tuesday's cold front.

By Thursday, southerly to southwesterly surface flow returns, allowing highs to surge into the 70s.

The next cold front is set to arrive in northwest Oklahoma Thursday afternoon, pushing south to the I-44 corridor overnight. With this system, low rain chances will return to the area Thursday night.

Day

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

By Friday, a potent trough reaches Baja California as a closed mid- level low pressure system. This system will bring much needed rainfall to our area this weekend. NBM shows generously high probabilities of at least 1 inch of rainfall for a good chunk of the FA, with 70-80% chance of this occurring for areas east and south of a line from Wichita Falls to Fairview to Ponca City.

Southwest flow and mid-level height falls overspreads our region on Friday afternoon. Mid-level moisture content progressively increases, and by late Friday, high PWAT values of 1 to 1.25 inches (> 90th percentile for this time of year) are expected in our area. Widespread moderate rainfall is likely by Friday night and will continue on Saturday as this system potentially deepens over our region along with strong low- level WAA. There is a signal for the quasi- stationary front to remain in our area as this upper-level system approaches. The southwest steering flow atop this quasi- stationary surface boundary could lead to training of showers and storms (though only low instability is forecast).

As is often the case in our neck of the woods, it's sometimes a case of feast or famine with regards to rainfall (or lack thereof). Given the high chances of beneficial rainfall (1+ inches), there are signals that several ingredients could align and lead to too much rainfall in a short time. So, we will have to monitor for the flash flood potential as we head into Valentine's Day weekend. As is often the case with closed low pressure systems, there is at least some potential that this rainfall event could be delayed by a day or so.

Thompson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Gusty northerly winds will begin to taper over the next few hours. North winds will prevail through the entire TAF period at most sites with some south winds returning to northwest Oklahoma by later tomorrow afternoon. Ongoing light rain showers will continue across portions of southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas with the highest confidence for prevailing mention of light rain at SPS and lower confidence at LAW and DUA with PROB30 used through 03z and 06z, respectively. All rain showers will end around or slightly after midnight from west to east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 36 59 40 73 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 33 59 38 75 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 63 40 79 / 40 0 0 0 Gage OK 27 58 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 33 56 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 64 45 74 / 50 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.