textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Fire weather conditions will be up to Critical this afternoon into the evening and again but Near Critical Friday afternoon.

- Strong winds through Friday possible behind a strong cold front coming through tonight.

- Hot today potentially breaking temperature records but cooler/mild Friday and Saturday.

- Low chances for rain or an elevated storm Thursday night across far northern OK.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A final afternoon of hot potential record breaking temperatures, fire weather, and gusty winds will be the main weather issues and/or hazards starting later this morning. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect later this morning into the evening hour across all but southeastern Oklahoma. Surface winds this morning will be veering due south with a tightening pressure gradient resulting in sustained wind speeds of 20- 25 mph by the afternoon. A strong southerly low-level jet will be increasing this morning only weakening slightly this afternoon. Late morning mixing into the jet will result in wind gusts between 30-40 mph well into the afternoon and possibly staying mixed & gusty into the evening should decoupling not occur. Not quite confident enough for a Wind Advisory for these pre-frontal winds but may need to be issued short-fused if needed. Moisture advection over the last 24- hours has formed a broad dryline across the eastern halves of the OK/TX Panhandles with this broad line advancing eastward into our western CWA resulting in very low RH values during the afternoon. The combination of gustier winds and drier hot air will increase fire weather conditions this afternoon with an Elevated to Critical risk across all of western & northern Oklahoma into portions of central Oklahoma and western north Texas all within the aforementioned Red Flag Warning.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front was currently stretched across the U.S. Northern Plains & Great Lakes regions being steered by a weather system in Eastern Canada. This front will continue pushing across the Great Plains into the afternoon hours and strengthen over Kansas just prior to pushing into northern Oklahoma Thursday evening. Models consistent over the last several runs with 40-50+ mph gusts behind the front. As a result will issue a Wind Advisory early Friday morning across all but our southeastern CWA and extend it through the entire afternoon. This may make traveling difficult especially in high profiled vehicles on Friday due strong north crosswinds over east to west aligned roadways such as I-40 & TX 287. The strong winds will also increase fire weather conditions Friday afternoon as well although a Near Critical risk trimmed further west mainly in western Oklahoma. A post-frontal shortwave in the mid-levels digging across southern Kansas could produce some rain or even an elevated thunderstorm just south of the state line so still have low (up to 30%) POPs in the forecast across northern Oklahoma for Thursday night. Also added post-frontal rain sprinkles across much of our area after sunrise Friday into the afternoon due to a second potential mid-level shortwave coming off the panhandles. Still not seeing any strong cooling behind this cold front with the surface high tracking across the Great Plains into the Midwest. However NBM was warm-biased with cooling as well as dense cloud cover so went cooler just below normal for Fridays MaxT using the CONSMOS.

Expecting our strong winds to decrease by Friday night as the surface high starts settling into the Midwest. South winds will be gradually returning Saturday with mild seasonably normal temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Becoming windy Sunday through Tuesday prior to a mid-week cold front next week. Becoming warmer each day under an upper ridge building out of the Southeastern U.S. The gusty south winds and warm very dry air coming off the TX/OK Panhandles will again increase fire weather conditions each afternoon with the highest fire danger risked area mainly across our west. A 15-20% probability for thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma Monday night from a mid- level disturbance coming off the Southern High Plains. However rain chances may be increasing toward the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low-level winds shear remains possible the remainder of tonight with a strong low-level jet in place. South winds will increase and become gusty Thursday morning and remain gusty through Thursday evening ahead of a cold front. The front will likely reach portions of northern OK before midnight Thursday night, bringing a shift to strong northeast winds behind it.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 92 51 58 41 / 0 0 10 0 Hobart OK 95 49 59 40 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 93 55 64 47 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 99 43 60 34 / 0 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 95 47 60 35 / 0 30 0 0 Durant OK 87 60 68 50 / 0 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>031-033>040-044-045.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.