textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, but not as hot as recent weeks.

- Low chances for precipitation each day across western OK and western north TX through Thursday, increasing and expanding east into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A small area of lingering showers across southwest Oklahoma early this afternoon(which should soon dissipate) is what remains of a broken band of warm advection showers/storms from earlier in the day. Elsewhere, the afternoon will be dry and warm with modest east to northeast winds. Highs today will be in the 80s across much of the area with low to middle 90s across the south and southeast.

Otherwise, northeast boundary layer flow will bring drier air into the area and along with the building upper ridge any afternoon or overnight convection is expected to remain south and west of the area. Another pleasant night expected as temperatures fall back into the 60s. A few upper 50s appear possible across the north.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Upper ridge continues to expand northward Wednesday as surface winds gradually shift to the east and southeast during the day. The upper ridge will keep the storm track to our west across the High Plains and the surface flow will continue to circulate drier air into the area from the east. This will also result in warmer temperatures as we go into the middle of the week.

By Thursday we do see the ridge become suppressed somewhat to our east and southeast, which in turn will allow the High Plains activity to push further east. Main impacts will be across our west and especially northwest Oklahoma where increased rain chances will occur, beginning Wednesday night and especially Thursday and Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The upper ridge is forecast to flatten and move east towards the end of the week into the weekend as troughing across the west coast deepens. This will help bend the subtropical moisture plume eastward into our area and allow for increasing shower/storm chances across western OK and western north TX Thursday night into Friday, with chances then expanding across more of the area as we head into Saturday and Sunday. That said, veering/drying flow and weakening forcing may lead to dwindling shower/storm coverage as activity makes it into central/eastern parts of the area.

Temperatures will remain well above average through the end of this forecast period, with highs climbing above 90 degrees areawide, with some portions of southern OK into western north TX potentially getting back close to the 100 degree mark, especially if shower/storm coverage ends up more limited.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions continue through midnight across the area. The major forecast question is to what degree we see stratus move in from the northeast, and how low do ceilings get. Signal does look a little stronger for MVFR to high-end IFR ceilings in north central and perhaps central Oklahoma late tonight/tomorrow morning. Uncertainty is higher into western Oklahoma. Did not include thunder chances in western north Texas/southwest Oklahoma TAFs tomorrow due to low probabilities, but 10-20 percent chance of rain exists.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 64 91 69 92 / 0 20 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 68 94 70 95 / 0 20 10 10 Gage OK 61 86 65 88 / 0 20 40 50 Ponca City OK 59 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 69 96 67 94 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.