textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- This week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Another day, another chance for severe storms today. Increased southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough approaching southern Nevada will give way to height falls and cooling aloft. The dryline will mix east through the afternoon with some uncertainty in how far east the boundary mixes. Most likely scenario is the dryline sets up in a location similar to yesterday, but there is a potential the dryline mixes farther east near Seymour and northeast along the I-44 corridor. With the upper trough still in the western CONUS, the vast majority for lift to initiate storms will come from the dryline convergence. However, similar to yesterday, there is not a ton of circulation along the dryline with more of a veered surface winds through the day. Winds are not expected to back until the evening hours so the strongest convergence may not be present until surface heating is loss.

If winds can back earlier in the afternoon hours with peak heating, any isolated storm that develops will have the likelihood to quickly become strong to severe. All hazards would be in play for any isolated storm that develops this afternoon with a corridor of decent instability east of the dryline. MLCAPE values in excess of 2000+ J/kg and effective shear of 40 to 50 knots will give way to the potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear is not expected to increase much until closer to sunset as the low-level jet ramps up an winds back, but the threat for a tornado is non-zero with any isolated storm that develops along the dryline earlier in the afternoon. Most CAMs do not initiate any storms this afternoon for the reasons mentioned above and the storm potential is once again conditional on the mesoscale environmental details that will be closely monitored through the day today.

Today will feature dual hazards with fire weather making a return west of the dryline, specifically across portions of northwest and far western Oklahoma. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and expanded a few counties southward for this afternoon and early evening. The low-level thermal ridge will warm today across West Texas and into western Oklahoma with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. RH values will generally be around 10 to 20 percent behind the dryline, but there is a chance for single digit values in the area of the Red Flag Warning this afternoon. Introducing breezy south southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will give way to near critical to critical fire weather conditions. Not only will conditions be dry and breezy but with a lack of substantial rainfall across most of the previously mentioned area of concern, fuels were only granted a sip of water and needed more to provide any sort of changeover to a green-up.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Tuesday becomes another rinse and repeat day featuring the dual hazards of fire weather in the west and severe weather in the east. Once again, the sloshing dryline will mix east with some uncertainty in exact placement. The biggest difference for Tuesday compared to today will be the upper trough axis approaching the Rockies with even better height falls and cooling aloft. Isolated storms that fire along the dryline will have the potential for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. The storms will grow upscale as they push eastward through the evening and the primary hazards will shift to damaging winds and tornadoes as the low-level jet increases.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for northwest and far western Oklahoma for near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon and early evening hours. RH values drop as low as 15 to 20 percent west of the dryline and even as low as 10 percent for areas closer to the 100th meridian. Strong lee cyclogenesis with the approaching trough will give way to breezy south southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Fuels will get no relief today, so continued warmth and drying will only continue to keep fuels susceptible to wildfires.

Strong to severe storms may continue overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The upper trough will finally pass over the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with additional afternoon storm chances along the dryline. However, morning convection could limit the life cycle of storms as they push eastward off the dryline. However, any isolated storm off the dryline will have the potential for all hazards. Exact details for Wednesday are highly contingent on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Elevated fire weather conditions may return as well to portions of northwest and western Oklahoma.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MVFR conditions are currently observed spreading north/west this evening. These conditions are anticipated to lift by mid-morning Monday. LLWS is a concern late tonight and again tomorrow night. Will be monitoring the marginal risk of severe storms that are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Thus far, there is significant uncertainty on storm development and have left out of TAFs for now.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR ceilings will scattered and lift by 15-16Z at most sites. A gusty southerly wind will veer, especially across western Oklahoma as drier air mixing into the area. A few thunderstorms may develop along a dryline by late afternoon and should dissipate by late evening. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop during the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 84 67 83 63 / 20 20 60 60 Hobart OK 90 65 88 61 / 20 20 50 60 Wichita Falls TX 88 68 85 64 / 20 20 60 80 Gage OK 89 59 89 55 / 0 10 20 30 Ponca City OK 86 67 86 63 / 10 20 40 60 Durant OK 82 67 81 65 / 10 20 40 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.

TX...None.