textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma today into this week.

- Low rain chances Monday night into Tuesday across southern OK and western north TX. Amounts likely light.

- Storm chances and potential for severe weather return by Thursday and Friday for at least portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are evident on regional radars to our south associated with a slow moving mid-upper level wave across TX and NM. Locally, breezy conditions and dry air are leading to elevated fire conditions across northwest OK while high clouds are expanding into southern and central OK. As the wave to our southwest moves eastward overnight, expect shower coverage to increase across western OK and western north TX, but amounts appear rather light given overall weak nature to the forcing and some initial dry air to overcome. In addition to increasing shower chances, could also see some patchy fog by sunrise Tuesday morning across western north TX into southern OK once the boundary layer saturates and moisture advects in from the south. Extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures from dropping too quickly overnight, with lows expected to be in the low to mid 50s for most areas.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms chances will continue into the day on Tuesday as the mid level wave tracks by to our south. Amounts again appear generally light but a few spots closer to the Red River could see around a quarter of an inch of rain. Precipitation will not likely make it much north of I-40 given dry air to the north. Highs will be fairly cool across southern portions of the area given extensive clouds and a rain-cooled airmass, with temperatures nearly steady in the low to mid 60s through much of the day. Elsewhere, highs will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees in northwest OK.

The wave will move by the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with shower chances decreasing by Wednesday morning across southeast OK. Low level moisture will advect northward through the day with a dryline expected to sharpen to our west across the panhandles by Wednesday afternoon. Isolated high-based convection may develop along the dryline Wednesday afternoon and attempt to move into our area, but is expected to weaken as it approaches by early evening. Will have to watch for strong wind gusts with decaying convection, but otherwise not much impact is expected at this time. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 80s west to low to mid 70s east.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A dryline is expected to mix just east of the 100th meridian Thursday, with severe weather possible to the east and near critical fire weather concerns to the west of the boundary. A mid- level trough will move across the Plains Thursday afternoon, while a sub tropical jet will move across the Red River and vicinity. Medium range guidance suggests that there may be low- level inhibition across much of the area, which may limit surface based storms. We are still several days out from the exact details, however, instability and shear will be in place for severe weather.

A cold front will move through late Thursday into Friday, bringing afternoon highs through the weekend back into the 70s and low 80s. Isolated elevated fire weather conditions are possible through the weekend across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Perturbations within the zonal flow aloft will provide the necessary lift for at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area through Sunday.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions are noted across the area right now, though IFR stratus can be found across much of the South Plains and Big Country. This will eventually move into western north Texas late this evening and tonight, initially bringing lowering ceilings after about 06Z. Fog development is likely across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma toward daybreak as light drizzle also overspreads the region, while MVFR stratus builds into central and northern Oklahoma. Winds remain out of the south through the period.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 52 64 55 74 / 10 20 0 10 Hobart OK 52 68 55 81 / 20 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 53 66 57 81 / 40 30 10 0 Gage OK 51 80 54 84 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 52 72 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 64 56 75 / 30 50 30 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.