textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Breezy southerly winds will result in elevated to locally near critical fire weather conditions across northwest Oklahoma today.

- A more active pattern is expected to bring a return of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week into the middle of next week.

- Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain/flooding possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The cold front that moved into KS Wednesday became a focus for shower/storm development Wednesday evening. This activity slowly dissipated before it could move into northern OK. So another dry night across the fa. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer tonight into early Thursday with morning lows in the low/mid 50s across much of the area.

Breezy southerly winds are expected again Thursday as stronger pressure gradient continues over the region. The previously mentioned cold front is expected to become stationary, remaining in KS Thursday. Meanwhile, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop west of the area with gulf moisture spreading northward east of the dryline. Models show storms developing near the dryline Thursday afternoon/evening then possibly moving into NW/northern parts of the fa Thursday evening. Gusty winds and hail will be possible with the storms.

Warmer temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. The warmer temperatures combined with breezy winds and dry vegetation will continue to bring a concern for elevated fire weather conditions in parts of NW OK Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The previously mentioned showers/storms could continue to affect parts of northern OK Thursday night with models showing the potential for a disturbance moving through the flow potentially helping to maintain development.

FRIDAY: SW flow aloft begins to build into the region. Models show the frontal boundary that stays in KS Thursday will make a push towards northern OK Friday. There is some uncertainty on how far south this front will go. Showers/storms are expected to develop near that front Friday into Friday night. The warm, moist air advecting northward will also bring a chance for showers/storms across parts of the fa. Instability around 1500 J/kg and improving shear will bring a potential for some strong to severe storms Friday afternoon/evening to areas north of I-40 with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns.

SATURDAY: The frontal boundary near the KS/OK border is expected to lift back north Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, gulf moisture continues to spread northward across the region and a dryline is expected to develop well west of the fa.

Models show showers/storms increasing over the area Saturday, especially Saturday night when there are some indications that a mid- level disturbance could be moving through the flow. Strong to severe storms will be possible in western parts of the fa Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall could also become a concern.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Active pattern continues Sunday into at least the middle of next week as SW flow aloft continues across the region with the potential for different disturbances to move through the flow.

The highest chances for showers/storms will continue into Sunday with highest chances continuing to shift eastward across the fa Saturday night and Sunday. Strong to severe storms will be possible again across much of the fa on Sunday with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg expected and wind shear. The potential for locally heavy rain will also be increasing this weekend as PWATs will be on the rise.

Showers/storms will remain possible for at least parts of the area into the middle of next week with a continued potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain/flooding.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds will develop with daytime heating, but should remain between 4000 and 6000 ft.

South/southeast winds will veer slightly and become gusty this morning. These winds will back and weaken around sunset this evening.

There is a low chance dissipating thunderstorms may approach KWWR this evening, but the chance is too low to include in the TAFs.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 60 82 60 / 0 0 20 10 Hobart OK 83 58 83 58 / 0 0 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 20 10 Gage OK 83 56 82 56 / 10 30 60 50 Ponca City OK 82 58 80 58 / 0 30 70 30 Durant OK 81 61 82 61 / 0 0 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.