textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Widespread showers with precipitation band slowly shifting southeast. Areas of heavy rainfall possible..

- Cooler air filtering into area behind a cold front today/tonight. Cool weather expected through the weekend.

- Warming trend again next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Widespread showers continue from the southwest portion of the forecast area through central and north central Oklahoma. The precipitation rates are currently not as high as we have experienced earlier with this system, but the heavy rain already received with this system keeps flooding potential in play. There has been an axis of 8 to 11 inches of rain from near the Beckham- Greer County line east-northeast through Washita, southeastern Custer, Canadian, southern Kingfisher and western Oklahoma Counties, and a major flood wave is moving down the Canadian River. Will keep the Flood Watch going, but will likely be able to remove counties from northwest to southeast as drier low-level air spreads into the area and the precipitation axis shifts slowly southeast. For areas roughly southeast of an Archer City-Ardmore- Ada line, precipitation amounts have been lighter (including a 0.00" at the Durant mesonet station so far), so flooding potential is not as high in the southeast. Precipitation will likely move out of the forecast area before sunrise Friday morning.

The front will move through the entire area this evening bringing the cooler air through the area.

With such widespread rain over the last couple of days, would be concerned about fog potential, but the breezy post-frontal conditions, advection of drier air, and lingering cloud cover will likely prevent significant fog development.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The short term will be dominated by high pressure building into the area. By Saturday morning, a 1035+ mb high is forecast to be sitting over Oklahoma with the ridge axis shifting slowly southeast. With this, cool and dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday. Forecast temperatures across northern and western Oklahoma are in the low to mid 30s on Saturday morning. In coordination with neighboring offices, have issues a Freeze Watch for Harper and Ellis Counties where freezing temperatures are most likely, but other areas of northern and western Oklahoma will at least have the potential of freezing temperatures in low-lying and sheltered areas.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Colder temperatures will continue through the weekend, despite winds returning to southerly by Sunday. A warming trend will continue through the middle parts of the week, as mid-level heights increase. Dry conditions are also expected through the middle of the week as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

IFR conditions could linger into the late afternoon for some areas as the axis of showers and thunderstorms is slow to advance southeastward. LLWS will be a concern tonight into Friday morning as a surge of cold air pushes into the area. There is some uncertainty on how long IFR/MVFR conditions persist, but suspect it could trend longer into the overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, breezy north winds are expected with VFR ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 58 39 59 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 47 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 50 61 39 61 / 60 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 44 58 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 64 44 65 / 80 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ004-009.

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013- 017>020-022>042-044>046-050.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.