textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Rainfall is expected across much of the area through Saturday evening. A few storms may produce severe weather.

- Fire weather returns next week, with Tuesday-Thursday currently forecast to have the greatest fire risk.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Showers and storms will continue across much of the area overnight Friday into Saturday as a mid-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Surface mass response will continue to advect higher theta-e air across much of Oklahoma. Initial storms will be in an environment characterized by sufficient instability and deep- layer shear, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Through the night, coverage of storms will increase, as the main lift approaches from the west. Storms will congeal into a line and push across the southern half of the area through Saturday. Surface observations at the time of this AFD are already underdoing surface moisture by roughly 2F across most of the area. That being said, models are struggling to capture the potential for these storms to become more surface based, especially when storms congeal into a line. As the line of storms pushes eastward, the hail threat should diminish into the morning, with primarily a wind threat and a low risk for circulations embedded within the line of storms. Some locations may up to 2-3 inches of rainfall, especially across southern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Further to the north, coverage isn't expected to be widespread, so some locations may receive up to an inch through Saturday.

Storms will shift to the east Saturday and should push out of the area by the afternoon. There is a chance for redevelopment beneath the main mid-level trough as it moves across the area. Cooling temperatures aloft will aid in sufficient instability for small to marginally severe hail.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Aforementioned storms will move across the area through the evening hours as a cold front sweep through the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be mostly in the 60s across most of the area, and roughly 5 degrees cooler than Saturday. Winds will quickly shift to the south overnight Sunday into Monday, bringing back much warmer temperatures across the area. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to materialize across roughly areas north of I-40 on Monday afternoon. Depending on how rainfall this weekend evolves, the fire weather threat may ramp up quickly next week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fire weather conditions could impact our area every afternoon next week from Tuesday on, with Thursday being the most widespread across our area. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase Gulf-based moisture transport into the Southern Plains sharpening a dryline across western Texas. Expecting the dryline to make its initial punch into western Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a Pacific-based surface low will be tracking across the Central Plains producing a very tight pressure gradient across our area resulting in windy conditions Tuesday. Late morning mixing into a strong overnight low-level jet could produce some strong gusts up to 40 mph based on predicted 925 mb level flow. Gusty south winds Tuesday expected to shift "westerly" across western Oklahoma where the dryline may be punching through. As a result we could see increased fire danger and potential Red Flag conditions across parts of our western CWA to Wind Advisory conditions across our remaining CWA on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline is expected to be lingering across southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday and Thursday and eventually pushed out on Friday with a Pacific cold front passage. With the dryline lingering across our southeast mid-week, very dry air coming off the higher plains of New Mexico & Texas/OK Panhandles will settle across our area resulting in very low afternoon RH values maintaining fire weather conditions. Thursday may be windier with another Pacific-low tracking through which could increase the fire danger making it more widespread across our area. Temperatures will stay well above normal next week peaking on Tuesday, after which upper ridging starts breaking down and becoming just slightly cooler from north to south until a potential cold front passage at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Upper storm system will continue moving through eventually pushing a cold front across our terminals between 18-01Z. Terminals could degrade to a MVFR category due to lowering ceilings and/or reduced visibilities in rain and/or TSRA at least through 10-12Z then further degrade to an IFR category through 20Z as ceilings further lower. Could see a return of MVFR to VFR conditions after 20Z. The TSRA will be out of the forecast by 00Z but will keep a PROB30 for rain for the last 6 hours of the forecast. Although surface winds may be erratic in direction due to the thunderstorm activity or should any storm outflow boundaries form, but will see a north wind shift behind the cold front as it starts pushing through northern Oklahoma after 18Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 69 48 63 43 / 90 50 0 0 Hobart OK 71 46 67 41 / 70 40 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 50 68 43 / 100 60 0 0 Gage OK 67 39 67 43 / 50 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 67 45 65 41 / 90 40 0 0 Durant OK 66 52 65 42 / 100 70 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.