textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Areas of fog with locally dense fog will continue through mid- morning.

- Fog is expected to redevelop tonight, especially across north central into central Oklahoma.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A ~1026 mb surface high centered across Missouri is the primary influence on the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas this morning. Light and variable winds, combined with a saturated boundary layer, are resulting in areas of fog this morning, with locally dense fog primarily across west-central into northwest Oklahoma.

In addition to the fog, the light and variable winds are resulting in a cold morning with temperatures in the 30s and 40s deg F. With the light winds, local terrain effects are resulting in a large change of temperatures in short distances. Patchy frost is likely across northern Oklahoma, where temperatures have fallen into the mid 30s deg F. These observations are taken at 1.5 meters (5 feet). As a result, ground-level temperatures are likely low enough to result in localized frost.

The fog should dissipate by mid-morning. However, abundant and dense high cirrus clouds (~20,000 to 25,000 ft) will persist throughout the day. Therefore, it'll be another cool afternoon (especially compared to recent weeks) with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Areas of fog are expected to develop once again tonight with the highest chance across north central into central Oklahoma. Low temperatures here are generally expected to fall below the minimum dew point this afternoon (also known as the crossover temperature). When the low temperature falls below the crossover temperature with light and variable winds, it indicates the potential for radiation fog from saturation and then condensation near the boundary layer.

The coverage of high clouds should shift southward on Sunday with a bit more solar insolation/sunshine expected. As a result, a warmer afternoon is expected with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s deg F.

Monday will be similar to Sunday with slightly warmer weather as southerly winds increase across Oklahoma and north Texas. The warmer weather will especially be noticeable Monday night into Tuesday morning, with much higher low temperatures expected in the upper 40s and 50s deg F.

An upper-level low once across the southwest U.S. will eventually lift into the Southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is somewhat limited, so the chance for rain is very low at this time.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs generally in the 70s and lows generally in the upper 40s and 50s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates little spread during these two days, which indicates high confidence that the relatively warm weather will continue.

By Thursday into Friday, ensemble spread increases markedly as a cold front will likely move across the Southern Plains as a longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the United States. This pattern will allow a cold front to drive southward as the trough amplifies to the east.

With the Southern Plains southwest of the strongest cold air advection, there is uncertainty regarding how much cold air will advance into Oklahoma and north Texas. It will be highly dependent on the track of the attendant surface high behind the cold front. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 to 30 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles with a 20 to 40% chance of high temperatures below 60 deg F by next Friday.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fog has developed and gradually expanded across portions of western, northern and central Oklahoma over the past hours this morning. We will continue to see periods of LIFR to IFR vis conditions at KCSM/KWWR, possibly as far east as KOKC/KOUN, through at least 14-16 UTC this morning before conditions slowly improve.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, evening and for most of early Sunday morning under dense coverage of high clouds and light/variable winds. At least patchy fog development is again possible towards daybreak on Sunday morning across north-central Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 58 40 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 61 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 62 44 69 48 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 65 39 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 65 44 70 46 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>006- 009>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for OKZ006>008- 011>013.

TX...None.