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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 601 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
- Freeze Warning in effect for far northwest OK this morning. Frost Advisory in the north and west.
- Mostly dry with a warming trend next week.
NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Chilly temperatures are in place early this morning, with readings already dropping into the 30s in many spots, with even some 20s not too far to the northwest in southwest KS into the OK panhandle where a hard freeze is expected this morning. A lighter freeze is still anticipated across our far northwest counties where the Freeze Warning is in effect, with patchy frost possible across a broader portions of northern and western OK this morning, especially in more sheltered locations.
Cooler temperatures will continue today as the surface ridge axis moves overhead. This will bring much lighter winds than we saw yesterday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chilly temperatures are then in store once again tonight as light winds and clear skies remain in place , with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s. With continued light winds and clear skies, there will be some potential for frost across portions of western/northern OK and even into central OK as well tonight, but current expectation is it will be mostly limited to low-lying and sheltered areas (not widespread enough for an advisory).
Ware
SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
A warming trend will commence Sunday into Monday as upper ridging begins to rebuild and low level flow returns to southerly. Highs Sunday will reach back into the mid to upper 60s, with 70s common across the area on Monday. Models still show a signal for some very light showers across western OK Monday and Monday night as a weak wave lifts northeast across NM into CO, but not expecting this activity to amount to much, if any, measurable rain.
Ware
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Very light shower activity could linger into Tuesday across western OK as the aforementioned wave passes by, but otherwise expect mainly dry conditions to persist into late next week until a larger trough along the west coast moves eastward, potentially bringing greater rain chances by next weekend. Model solutions remain varied with this system regarding its progression and amplitude, but for now the highest PoPs (20-40%) are favored across western parts of the area next Fri/Sat.
Temperatures are expected to be above average during this period, generally in the low to mid 80s for highs and 50s to low 60s for lows.
Ware
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
VFR conditions this TAF period. Winds will remain relatively light but gradually shift towards the south during the TAF period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 59 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 61 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 38 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 63 38 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 66 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004-009.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ005>008- 010>016-021-022-033-034.
TX...None.
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