textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Hot and dry conditions persist.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected (west) through middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

H500 analysis charts show the upper ridge gradually shifting eastward over the past few days with mid-level height rises occurring over our area. In addition, low-level flow has shifted more to the southwest. Diabatic, downslope, and compressional heating will yield temperatures and heat indices up to near 105 this afternoon. Highest of these readings are expected over portions of northern Oklahoma (e.g., Woods, Alfalfa, Major Counties) and within a corridor of the Red River in southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

With southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph and afternoon relative humidity falling to near 20 percent, elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated for areas generally west of Hwy 81. Observed dewpoint temperatures have been a bit lower than NBM, and have lowered afternoon values. Temperatures overnight will be warmer as well, with lows in the mid- to upper-70's.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The main concerns remain the heat and elevated fire weather conditions (western Oklahoma) on Sunday and Monday.

Given the difference between observed and modeled dewpoint temperatures lately, we did lower this parameter towards consensus of raw- and short-term models for Sunday. With temperatures and heat index values above 105 for northern Oklahoma, a Heat Advisory was issued for 1PM through 7 PM Sunday. Temperatures and heat indices are forecast to be similar on Monday.

Gusty southwest winds return tomorrow (lesser on Monday) and elevated fire weather conditions will generally develop where these gusty winds and low relative humidity coincide, which is for areas generally north of I-40 and west of Hwy 81 for both Sunday and Monday.

Low temperatures on Sunday and Monday nights will remain warm (upper-70's for many areas).

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The hot and dry conditions will continue into next week with no evidence of any impactful synoptic-scale pattern change through the end of the week. The subtropical ridge will continue to be the primary influence of weather across the Southern Plains with agreement among deterministic and ensemble NWP.

The probabilistic National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast has very little spread among the 10th and 90th percentile temperature forecast with even the 10th percentile several degrees above- normal. As a result, there is a high confidence that above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F will persist all of next week. Bottom line--expect a heatwave next week.

Drought conditions will worsen with the subtropical ridge blocking any weather systems that would bring rainfall across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions will continue along with very dry fuels. The total fire environment will continue to be susceptible to initial attack fires to low-end large fires.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals. An occasionally gusty south-southwesterly wind across western and central Oklahoma will relax near sunset. Otherwise, monitoring potential for low-level wind shear across far northern Oklahoma during the predawn Sunday, on the periphery of an emerging nocturnal low-level jet.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 104 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>008- 010>013-017>020.

TX...None.