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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for the week ahead.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A slow-moving/weak upper trough and moist boundary layer have been a "thorn in the side" of our forecast the past 12-18 hours, with areas of rain persisting significantly longer than expected dating back to yesterday evening. However, as a 1028 mb surface high continues to push further south across the central Plains - ushering in a drier airmass - widely scattered light rain showers continue to become less numerous and confined south of the Red River in Texas.

Pockets of low clouds/stratus also continue to erode/progress southward across the Red River Valley, with a greater mix of sun and clouds expected across the forecast area into the evening. Sensible conditions are otherwise rather pleasant for an early October day, with temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s along with an occasionally gusty northeasterly surface wind.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

After a few day period of more active/wet weather across the region, we look to shift back towards a more solidly dry and warmer weather pattern as a new work week begins. Our area looks to be positioned on the downstream periphery of an elongated upper ridge, with generally weak northwesterly mid-tropospheric flow.

It will feel more classically fall-like as you head out the door on Monday morning, with the coolest conditions (50s) since late May forecast for most locations. It's not out of the question that a few low-lying or sheltered locations across northern Oklahoma drop into the upper-40s around daybreak.

The combination of mostly clear skies, lower humidity and advection of warmer low-level airmasses will lead to rising temperatures early in the week. This includes the return of widespread 80s to possibly low-90s across western-north Texas by Tuesday. There is high confidence in dry weather/nil chances for precipitation, with closest areas of precipitative weather confined to the Gulf Coast.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue for the week ahead. The temperature spread in bias-corrected probabilistic guidance is low, which indicates high confidence of no appreciable cool down next week. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s deg F with some locations potentially around 90 deg F (most likely across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas).

An upper-level low is forecast to pass by across Texas late Friday into Saturday; however, the current forecast track would keep any chance for rain to our southeast. Therefore, the forecast remains dry for now.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light north/northeast winds will veer today, first across northern OK and then the rest of the area later Monday evening. Skies will be mainly clear.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 57 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 82 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 59 85 55 / 40 0 0 0 Gage OK 79 53 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 81 53 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 82 59 81 55 / 30 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.