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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Hot and mostly dry conditions to continue.

- Fire weather will continue to be a concern with the ongoing drought and dry fuels.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The ~594 dam upper high will continue to hang out over the Ohio River Valley and parts of the SE U.S. today. Meanwhile, TD Edouard will continue to move NW/NNW across eastern TX around the western side of the high pressure today.

Another hot day is in store for the fa with highs ranging from 98F to 104F across the area. Moisture will also be on the increase today leading to more humid conditions. The hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices in the 105F to 109F range this afternoon and early evening across portions of southern OK and north TX. A heat advisory was issued earlier and no changes are expected to it at this time.

Min RH is expected to be in the 20-40% range this afternoon which will keep fire weather conditions from becoming elevated. However, wildfires are still possible due to the very dry vegetation across the area so steps need to continue to be taken to prevent fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

TD Edouard is expected to continue to drift NW/NNW across eastern TX tonight into Thursday although weakening as it does. This system could bring a low chance for some showers in parts of south central OK Wednesday night into Thursday depending on how far north it is able to move although some models show no rain making it into the fa. Unfortunately, it currently looks like most of the fa will miss out on any rainfall from this system and the amount of rainfall in the parts of the fa that might get rainfall look to be not all that much (0.25" or less), if we get any at all.

Some cloud cover in eastern parts of the fa might keep temperatures a few degrees "cooler" (mid 90s) Thursday afternoon instead of the upper 90s/low 100s across the rest of the area. These "cooler" temperatures will be short-lived with highs returning back to the upper 90s/low 100s across the entire area Friday.

Moisture will also continue to increase Thursday and Friday, especially in eastern portions of the fa. This will lead to hot and humid conditions with heat indices in the 105F-110F range across an increasing area both Thursday and Friday. Heat headlines will likely be needed through the end of the work week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Models show the upper high shifting back to the west with the upper ridge over the region through the weekend into next week. This will continue the hot, humid, and dry weather into next week. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 90s to low 100s into the middle of next week with triple digit heat indices across the area and values of 105F to 110F across portions of the fa each day. Heat headlines will also likely persist across at least portions of the fa into next week.

The moisture is forecast to remain in the area which will keep fire weather conditions from becoming elevated. However, as previously mentioned, the very dry fuels will remain susceptible to wildfires and will likely continue to do so until the area receives some much needed rainfall. With that in mind, everyone needs to continue to be cautious and take steps to prevent fire starts.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds overnight and clear skies. Winds will pick up some in the morning with gusts to near 20kts by late morning into the afternoon. High-based cumulus will develop again Wednesday afternoon before dissipating around sunset with lighter southeast winds after 01Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 102 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 102 73 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 101 73 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 100 73 96 74 / 0 10 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-036>039-041>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.


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