textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- After a widespread freeze this morning, seasonable temperatures are expected today.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures coupled with breezy and dry conditions will bring a return to fire weather conditions Tuesday and late in the week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A 1037 mb surface high is centered across north Texas early this morning, which is resulting in light northeast to easterly winds. These light winds, combined with a dry air mass, has resulted another widespread freeze this morning.

As the surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. and lee cyclogenesis occurs east of the Rockies, winds will shift toward the south with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge across the High Plains to the west. This synoptic-scale pattern will begin a warming trend today. The warmest weather will be along the eastern periphery of the low-level thermal ridge across western Oklahoma into western north Texas, where afternoon high temperatures will reach the 60s deg F. Elsewhere, seasonable temperatures in the 50s deg F will continue.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Breezy southerly winds will result in an appreciably warmer night Monday night into Tuesday morning with low temperatures generally in the mid 30s to near 40 deg F.

Warm, above-normal temperatures will return across the entire area Tuesday afternoon with breezy southwest winds and the eastward expansion of the low-level thermal ridge through downslope warming. High temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 deg F, which is around 15 deg F above normal for late February.

A deepening surface low in the High Plains will tighten surface pressure gradient, which will result in gusty southwest winds. The gustiest winds are expected along and southeast of I-44, where the tightest surface gradient is expected. Vertical mixing to ~850 mb (30 to 35 knot flow) will result in wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the surface low will track into north Texas. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will relax and the winds will become lighter for Wednesday. Warm, above- normal temperatures will continue with no significant air mass change expected. It might be slightly cooler across northwest into west central Oklahoma due winds shifting to the east-northeast in association with the counterclockwise circulation around the surface low.

By Wednesday night, a cold front is forecast to move through as a shortwave trough passes by the Great Lakes region. With most of the synopic-scale ascent passing to the northeast and limited moisture, the chance for rain with the front is only 20% to 30% across northern Oklahoma.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A cooler and drier air mass with breezy northerly winds is expected in the front's wake on Thursday. The air mass behind this front is not too cold for February with above-normal temperatures likely to continue to behind it with downslope-warming modifying the air mass. Warmer weather will return by Friday as southerly winds return with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies.

Forecast uncertainty increases markedly by the weekend into early the following week with a large spread among deterministic models and ensemble members. There are indications that a strong cold could potentially be in close proximity to the Southern Plains with significant differences in the timing of the front. As a result, probabilistic guidance has an ~40 to 50 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles Sunday through Tuesday. For now, the temperature forecast trends cooler late in the weekend into early next week with the potential to trend even colder if the front is stronger.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the upcoming period. After an overnight of light northeasterly surface winds, a return towards a more dominant south-southeasterly direction is expected on Monday. Occasional gusts >20 kts are also forecast across western Oklahoma as a surface pressure gradient sharpens into the afternoon.

Low-level wind shear will become a concern after 03 UTC/Tuesday, as a strong low-level jet core develops and spread eastward across the area. Outside of KWWR, this concern should remain limited until after the end of the current valid period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

On Tuesday, elevated to locally near-critical fire weather conditions are likely across a large part of the area. Temperatures will rise into 70s to near 80 deg F as the low-level thermal ridge expands eastward. These above-normal temperatures will allow for afternoon relative humidity values between 15 to 30%. A deepening surface low will strengthen the surface pressure gradient, which will result in gusty southwest winds. The gustiest winds are expected along and southeast of I-44, where vertical mixing to ~850 mb (30 to 35 knot flow) will result in wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph.

With the ongoing drought conditions and receptive/dry fuels (i.e., ERC-G 75th to 90 percentiles), the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires with some large fire potential. Currently, the worst fire weather conditions (e.g., the most likely area to see near- critical fire weather conditions) are expected across western north Texas, where the lowest relative humidity and strongest winds are forecast to overlap.

On Wednesday, a relative minimum in fire weather conditions is expected with lighter winds and higher humidity.

On Thursday, breezy northerly winds in a drier, post-frontal air mass will increase fire weather conditions with the potential for elevated fire weather conditions.

On Friday, a dry return flow (DRF) pattern is possible with at least elevated fire weather conditions as warmer weather returns. Even with the breezy southerly winds, moisture advection appears limited with afternoon relative humidity values between 15 to 25.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 54 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 56 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 40 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 59 37 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 49 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 36 70 52 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.