textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Elevated to near critical fire danger risk across parts of our area from Thursday into Saturday.

- Warming trend peaks on Saturday with above-average temperatures on every day through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Our main issues in the near term will be windy conditions from a cold front coming through this morning with an increasing fire danger risk for this afternoon.

A large scale weather system will be coming through with the upper low coming down from Canada into the U.S. Northern Plains tracking across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Regions. An upper trough from this system will dig across the Central & Southern Plains pushing a fast moving cold front across our area during the morning hours. Currently the cold front is stretched across western Kansas and is expected to start pushing into northwest Oklahoma around 3 AM and through our entire forecast area by late morning. Our area will see gusty northwest winds behind the frontal boundary from 20-25 mph sustained. Gusts at 30-40 mph will be possible behind the front especially by late morning mixing at least to the 925 mb level. Expecting our area to remain windy through the afternoon then decreasing and less gusty after sundown as surface high pressure builds in. Can't rule out the potential for a Wind Advisory by late morning should winds exceed 40 mph into higher mixing heights but confidence is not high enough to issue one early as this will need to monitored. As far as the wind grids, did go slightly higher than NBM default with the post-frontal wind speeds using the NBM 90th percentile nudged at 50% through the morning. NBM has a good handle with the afternoon winds.

Expecting the coldest Canadian air from this system to surge more into the U.S. Midwestern Region with little if any cooling into the Southern Plains as above normal temperatures will persist this afternoon. However, a much drier air mass will come through behind the front resulting in very low afternoon relative humidities across our area. The drier air combined with gusty winds will increase the fire danger to a Near Critical Risk across all of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas to an Elevated Risk across the remainder of our counties. The fire danger risk will lower after sundown as winds gradually decrease and the RH rises/recovers.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

High pressure settles over our area tonight with winds going light & variable by midnight. Perhaps just a few thin high clouds but expecting strong radiation cooling within this new drier air mass with temperatures dropping below freezing generally between 25-30 degrees although not expecting much of a wind chill. Did go cooler than NBM with the MinT for Thursday night using the CONSMOS. The upper trough starts exiting to the east on Friday with gusty south winds returning bringing in a warmer air mass at least into our southwestern CWA. Much of the moisture advection will be across southeast Oklahoma so expecting another day of very low afternoon RH values across all but southeast Oklahoma. The gusty winds and dry air will again Elevate the fire danger risk Friday afternoon across all but southeast Oklahoma.

Our upper flow becoming zonal on Saturday advecting relatively warm California Pacific-based air over our area, yet a system moving across Canada just north of the Great Lakes will be pushing our next dry cold front through on Saturday afternoon. The 1000-850 mb layer thicknesses suggest some cooling behind this front with the "coldest" air restricted to our northern states. Our southern CWA should stay pre-frontal through most of Saturday afternoon warming well into the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s across western north Texas. Not expecting to break any temperatures on Saturday afternoon in OKC but near record breaking across our southwest where the fire danger risk will be. Much of Saturdays heating will depend on the exact location of the cold front by late afternoon. Cold on Saturday night enhanced by a wind chill should north winds persist overnight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Upper zonal flow persist through Monday with a warm ridge building on Tuesday. Although a cooler air mass in place on Sunday temperatures will stay remain warmer than normal going into late December. Gusty south winds return Monday bringing in a warmer air mass bringing the start of a new warming trend into next week with temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer than the climatically 30-year average. The building upper ridge over Southern Plains continue to trend a warm, breezy, and dry Christmas Eve leading into Christmas Day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Predominately VFR category is expected during the upcoming period. The exception is initially at KDUA, where low stratus will begin to move eastward as a front/drier air approaches from the northwest early this morning.

Otherwise, the main aviation concern looks to be gusty northwesterly winds, particularly at KWWR/KPNC/KSWO, where a few gusts exceeding 40 knots are likely this afternoon. Wind magnitudes will decrease markedly around sunset this evening.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 58 27 61 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 61 28 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 63 30 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 56 25 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 26 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 33 62 46 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>013-015.

TX...None.