textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and humid for Independence Day which will create a risk for heat related illnesses.

- Storms likely tonight with the potential of severe weather including large hail and damaging winds.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Storms are likely to develop late this afternoon and this evening. Severe storms will be possible. Storms will likely impact various outdoor activities this evening.

Storms that moved through Kansas this morning have sent an outflow boundary into northern Oklahoma. Storms are already beginning to develop (a) in central Kansas in the wake of the morning storms, and (b) in the central Texas panhandle in an area of confluent surface winds. Although we do not see cumulus development on the outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma along the outflow boundary, that may be another focus for storm development later this afternoon as well. Other fields of cumulus are developing in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, and from Seminole County down into the Arbuckles.

There will be some potential for storm development in the south and east, the primary focus will be any storms developing down the line in Kansas, any storms that form near the outflow boundary, and storms moving in from the Texas panhandle. Instability is sufficient for severe storms, and high downdraft CAPE values definitely show the potential for strong winds. With the evolution today and some storms already developing in central Kansas and near Amarillo, believe storms will likely begin affecting Oklahoma later this afternoon. Although do not have the highest confidence in the CAMs (especially in placement of storms) as they generally struggled with the morning Kansas convection and the outflow boundary, there has been an increasing signal today of more organization and more persistence in the storms, and the severe storm potential pushing south through the evening and overnight. So we agree with the SPC upgrade to Enhanced Risk of severe storms and the expansion of the slight risk south into central Oklahoma.

So there is an increasing potential that storms will be affecting Independence Day festivities in some areas of northern and central Oklahoma.

Otherwise we are also concerned with the heat and humidity and the effects of these on afternoon festivities and the potential of heat-related illnesses. The outflow boundary has kept things slightly cooler in northwest Oklahoma, so have cancelled this portion of the Heat Advisory.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered showers and storms will likely be lingering after sunrise on Sunday morning. Meanwhile the front and any convective outflow boundaries will continue to push south tonight and into tomorrow. Although the specifics in the location of storm development will somewhat depend on the evolution of the surface features, there will be the potential of storm redevelopment Sunday afternoon, especially near any surface boundary. Some strong or severe storms will again be possible. Coverage should decrease overnight.

The front will bring less-hot air to northern and central Oklahoma, although another hot day is expected south of the front on Sunday. The front will move through the remainder of the area on Sunday night bringing the less-hot temperatures to southern Oklahoma and north Texas, although this is relative as heat index values will likely again reach 100 in the south on Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The ridge will continue to spin to our west with heat remaining through the week. Widespread triple digit heat may be possible towards the end of the week. The pattern aloft will continue to generally be northwest flow, which could lead to daily diurnally driven storms off the higher terrain into Oklahoma. This type of setup typically favors portions of northern into central Oklahoma as storms struggle to maintain intensity farther south past sunset with little to no forcing aloft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into the evening across northern OK and move southward overnight, with potential to impact most sites across northern and central OK with variable/gusty winds. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and south winds to prevail outside of areas of thunderstorms, with a prevailing shift to easterly winds by Sunday morning at most sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 94 70 93 / 50 30 20 10 Hobart OK 74 99 69 96 / 20 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 76 101 72 98 / 10 30 30 10 Gage OK 68 93 67 95 / 40 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 70 87 69 89 / 80 20 20 0 Durant OK 77 96 75 94 / 20 30 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ013-017>020- 024>032-039>048-050>052.

TX...None.