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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Hot & muggy conditions this upcoming week with heat indices near to above triple digits each day.

- Our first Heat Advisory for the season will be in effect Monday afternoon across parts of northern Oklahoma with heat indices there exceeding 105 degrees.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Monday across northwest Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Heat: Expanded the Heat Advisory to include the Ponca City-Stillwater- Guthrie areas based on the calculated heat index values expected this afternoon. NBM is very aggressive with dewpoints this afternoon exceeding almost all available model inputs. Granted dewpoints will be high with evapotranspiration after recent rainfall, but still expect a little mixing out during the heat of the afternoon so nudged the forecast dewpoints down a bit. Even with this, the calculated max heat index grids gave 105 across most of the previously issued Heat Advisory area as well as areas immediately to the east.

Storms: Scattered thunderstorms are developing this morning across northeast Oklahoma. While some of these storms may brush the eastern edge of our forecast area, these storms will primarily be east of our area this morning. Still have some low POPs this morning on the northeastern and eastern fringe of the forecast area.

Many models suggest we will see isolated to scattered storms develop along a weak surface front across northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon. Forecast sounding in this area show an inverted-V type sounding which makes sense given how warm temperatures are expected today, and associated with this, forecast downdraft CAPE is also quite high. Any strong storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with strong winds that primary threat, although some hail can not be completely ruled out either. Additional storms progged to develop near the surface low in central Kansas this afternoon are expected to move southeast. Most of these storms are expected to remain northeast of the area, but there is at least some potential for these to move into north central Oklahoma before dissipating.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

And thunderstorms that develop this afternoon as described in the "near term" section are expected to diminish this evening with diurnal stabilization.

500 mb heights lower a little bit Tuesday with an upper trough developing in the western United States. This may take the edge off the temperatures in the western part of the forecast area, but it will still be hot. Heat index values are expected to be at least in the upper 90s across most of the area, with the potential of pushing 105 again in the wheat belt of northern Oklahoma.

As this upper trough moved into the central Plains on Wednesday, some models suggest storm development along a surface boundary across northwest Oklahoma into Kansas, but there is not a consensus in the models on this development. But it will be another hot day with the heat index values climbing into the triple digits across much of the area again.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The trend in the medium-range models has been to keep stronger zonal flow over the area as a broad trough slowly moves east across Canada and the United States late this week. While temperatures will remain very warm, they may not be quite as hot late in the week as early this week. Precipitation chances increase Thursday night as the main trough axis moves over the Plains and a surface front approaches or moves into northern Oklahoma. Storm chances persist through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings are expected to develop late tonight, mainly east of I-35, then gradually lift in the morning. There is some uncertainty in how far west this stratus will develop-- most models keep it just east of KOKC, KOUN, KSPS, and KLAW, with slightly higher probabilities of stratus extending over KPNC and KSWO. South to southeast winds will become breezy overnight or toward morning for most locations. Some low level wind shear will be possible toward morning across northwest Oklahoma.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 93 75 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 98 75 96 75 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 94 74 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 102 76 98 77 / 20 20 0 10 Ponca City OK 92 77 93 77 / 10 20 0 0 Durant OK 91 76 91 78 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020.

TX...None.