textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Severe storms are possible on Friday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The dryline has advanced quickly eastward so far, and as of 2PM, the boundary extended from Medford-Hinton-Hobart-Crowell. As a result, the latest 12Z model guidance has trended a bit east with severe thunderstorm activity, as well. Convective initiation has already begun near Duncan and south of Archer City. Large to very large hail and damaging winds (at least initially) are expected to be the main hazards due to strong instability (~3500 J/kg) and very strong cloud-layer shear (80+ knots). Forecast hodographs, in general, are long and generally straight this afternoon which would suggest multi-cell and/or splitting storms.

Veered surface flow and meager low-level wind shear are expected to dampen tornadogenesis attempts (at least initially). Closer to sunset, surface winds could become backed over parts of south-central and southeastern Oklahoma, with pockets of enhanced 0-1km helicity values (curved low-level hodographs) and increase the tornado threat in these areas. Severe storm potential diminishes around midnight or 1AM Thursday. That said, due to the synoptic setup and the time of year, a Tornado Watch is being issued for areas generally east of I-44.

With the potential for training of storms, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, as well.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Thursday will remain dry and breezy. The main concern is near critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for part of northwest Oklahoma. It will feel hot, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80's to low-90's.

Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in southwesterly flow aloft. This may result widely scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Most of this activity should be northeast of the area by mid to late morning.

By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place, instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening, a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning.

Thompson/6

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much drier airmass on Saturday. An elevated frontal boundary across south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered showers through the late morning/early afternoon.

With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels remain receptive to fire.

With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday. Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s.

After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 70s by afternoon. The wind will become a little breezy across western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon.

A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday into Monday. This may result in a few showers and storms mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture return. Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during the day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop tonight across the eastern terminals with the potential for IFR ceilings. Ceilings should improve by mid to late morning.

Winds will generally be from the south/southeast. These winds will veer slightly and increase in speed by mid to late morning. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected toward the end of the TAF period across the northern terminals.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 60 87 66 / 50 20 0 10 Hobart OK 86 54 90 64 / 30 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 61 92 66 / 60 30 0 10 Gage OK 82 47 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 56 85 66 / 40 20 0 0 Durant OK 78 65 86 66 / 60 70 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-021.

TX...None.