textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through at least next Tuesday.

- Dry through Monday, with increasing precipitation chances across western Oklahoma by Tuesday.

- Rain & storm chances increase Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for much cooler/seasonable conditions by the end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Not much change to the forecast pattern as the upper level high continues above us. We'll see highs again in the upper 80s and lower 90s today with light to slightly breezy (NW OK) winds under sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s / lower 60s.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hot and dry continues into the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. As pressure gradients tighten in the low levels, we'll see winds start to increase, starting with gusty south southwest winds in northwest Oklahoma on Saturday, then more widespread (especially along and west of I-44 / I-35) gusty winds on Sunday. As the next upper level system draws near, we may see some cirrus on Sunday as well.

Some patchy elevated fire weather will be possible over the weekend. For Saturday, this looks to be RH driven with humidity falling into the 20-25 percent range across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Humidity should be slightly higher on Sunday, but gusty winds in northwest Oklahoma may get just strong enough to push a few localized areas into the elevated RFTI category. ERCs are starting to creep back up into the 60th to 75th percentile range.

Day

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Monday currently looks to feature low end (~10-30%) potential for record-setting heat and mostly dry weather, as the previous upper ridge remains the dominant regional control of sensible conditions. Overnight conditions will become notably warmer by Monday night as well, with minimum temperatures +5-10 degrees (near 70 degrees) compared to late this week/weekend.

The pattern looks to turn more active by the time we get to Tuesday as Pacific-based systems, including the remnants of Hurricane Simon, begin to shift closer to the area. While our current gridded forecast calls for the hottest temperatures of the next week on Tuesday (mid-90s), the combination of a more muted low-level thermal response, increasingly cloudy skies and at least low (~20-30%) potential for rain/storms casts some doubt on achieving these well above-average conditions.

Better/more widespread chances for rain and storms look to materialize by Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a previously closed upper system across the Great Basin begins to open and accelerate eastward towards the Plains. Given a seasonably anomalous moisture advection pattern in advance of this system, and with continued warm temperatures, we will be keeping a close watch on the potential for strong-severe thunderstorms by this time as well.

A more notable frontal passage and associated cooldown looks occur a bit later than previously advertised, now focused on Thursday into Friday. Depending on the speed/timing of the front, some continued rain/storm chance is possible across central and eastern portions of the area into Thursday evening.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Light southerly winds, variable at times, are forecast to increase moderately tomorrow by mid-day across portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Gusts to near 20 mph are expected at KCSM, KWWR, KPNC, and KSWO.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 60 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 91 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 58 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 61 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.