textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low confidence on details.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows remnants of Tropical Storm Vance moving through Texas this afternoon. This activity will continue to slowly spread northward into western north Texas and far southwestern Oklahoma this evening. Increasing precipitation chances will accompany this system later tonight, especially across western north Texas and western Oklahoma where the better large scale scent will reside. Instability will be quite limited tonight, but will still be enough for lightning activity within the convective cores. Aforementioned precipitation chances will increase and spread northward through the overnight hours, making it to the I-40 corridor by sunrise.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Widespread rain showers are expected throughout much of Friday, as the main system moves across the southern Plains. Once again, there will be just enough instability for a few lightning strikes, especially in the morning. Large scale ascent will shift towards the east through the day, and should mostly be out of the area by Saturday morning. That being said, expecting any showers to weaken and decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast throughout the day into the overnight hours. Given the coverage and stratiform nature of the precipitation that is expected, rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5 inches are likely across much of the area.

Any lingering precipitation will exit the area Saturday evening. Cloud cover will remain across the southern Plains through the beginning of the weekend, so expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Drier conditions are expected through Sunday morning but will not last long as troughing over the western US amplifies and moves into the central US. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the trough as it moves into the Plains, with solutions ranging from a slower, deeper cutoff low to more of an open wave moving across our area. This will have implications for rainfall amounts and severe weather potential, and obviously timing, for our area. For now, the best model consensus would suggest at least low end severe weather potential Monday into Monday night as moisture surges northward ahead of a dryline/pacific front, followed by cooler temperatures and perhaps continued shower activity Tuesday on the backside of the trough. However, given the uncertainty expect the details to continue to evolve as we draw closer.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 00Z and gradually degrade a bit through the end of the forecast period. A Pacific-based upper level system will be lifting from western Texas into our area starting after 00Z bringing mostly steady rain with low chances for a few embedded thunderstorms. Will see ceilings lower with stratus as this system moves in to at least an MVFR category along with slight reductions in visibility in the rain as this system moves in north and east across our terminals and will persist through the end of the forecast period with rain probabilities likely. The rain will likely reach our terminals in central Oklahoma by 12Z. Surface winds will remain out of the south around 10 kts then go light and southeasterly after 00Z then light & variable overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 61 69 56 / 0 40 90 50 Hobart OK 81 59 66 55 / 0 60 100 70 Wichita Falls TX 81 60 70 56 / 10 80 80 60 Gage OK 81 57 64 51 / 20 10 90 70 Ponca City OK 83 61 73 56 / 0 0 90 40 Durant OK 83 63 76 59 / 20 30 20 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.