textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 958 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Cool, seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend with widespread freezes Saturday and Sunday nights.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will bring a return to fire weather conditions next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Cool, seasonable temperatures will continue today as a reinforcing cold front has moved through tonight. As a surface high advances southward in the wake of the cold front, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen this afternoon. The strengthening surface gradient will result in breezy northerly winds this afternoon. Modest 850 mb flow (~25 to 35 knots) will result in wind gusts up to 30 mph as vertical mixing increases with daytime heating. The strongest winds are expected across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas.

High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the upper 40s and 50s deg F with cold air advection and solar insolation being the primary impacts to temperatures.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Lighter winds, clear skies, and dry air will provide an excellent environment for radiational cooling tonight. As a result, a widespread freeze is expected by Sunday morning.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday--at least with respect to temperatures--with highs once again generally in the 40s and 50s deg F with no significant air mass change expected. Western north Texas may reach close to 60 deg F with weaker cold air advection. Winds will be lighter than Sunday given a weaker pressure gradient. Another widespread freeze is expected Sunday night into Monday morning with light winds, clear skies, and dry air.

Monday will be transition day as winds shift toward the south and a low-level thermal ridge strengthens to the west. As a result, the warmest weather will be across the west, where winds will shift to the south the earliest in the day and in closer proximity to the low-level thermal ridge. Elevated fire weather conditions will be confined near the 100th meridian across far western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas (where the strongest winds are forecast).

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will return across the entire area on Tuesday with rising mid-level heights, breezy southerly winds, and the eastward expansion of the low-level thermal ridge through downslope warming. High temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 deg F (~15 deg above normal).

With the ongoing drought conditions and receptive/dry fuels, fire weather will become an increasing concern. Even with the southerly winds, moisture advection appears limited with afternoon relative humidity values between 15 to 30%. This dry return flow (DRF) pattern will likely set the stage for at least elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon with the potential for near- critical fire weather conditions.

The warm, above-normal temperatures will likely continue into Wednesday with even the 10th percentile of probabilistic guidance indicating temperatures ~15 to 20 deg F above normal. As a result, at least elevated fire weather conditions will continue on Wednesday.

By Thursday, cooler weather is expected as a cold front is forecast to advance southward through the area. Even so, the most likely scenario is still above-normal temperatures in its wake for Thursday and Friday.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 958 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

Northerly winds, gusty at times, are expected this afternoon. Winds will relax after sunset and will remain at 5-10 kt through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 27 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 52 24 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 52 20 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 23 48 19 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 57 31 56 28 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.