textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Periods of heavy rain are expected from this afternoon through at least Thursday morning. Flash flooding is possible in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Chance of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Active weather expected through tonight with periods of rain, heavy rain/flooding and severe weather concerns.

Scattered light to moderate rain showers continued to move across parts of the area early this afternoon as the large area of rain that moved across the region earlier today continues to lift NE and E. Additional scattered shower/storm development has also begun across portions of the fa.

The upper low centered near the central NM/AZ border is expected to continue to move E and then NE across the southern Rockies into the Panhandles area early Thursday. Models show a 500mb speed max rotating around the low across west TX approaching the fa by late this afternoon. CAMs show scattered showers/storms continuing to develop in parts of central/south central OK/western north TX, and shifting east later this afternoon and evening with a line of storms developing in western parts of the fa as the speed max approaches later this afternoon. This line of storms is then expected to move east across the area this evening/overnight.

As the morning/early afternoon activity has continued to shift across/out of the area, clouds have decreased across western portions of the fa allowing for sfc heating of the moist airmass. Enough instability (1500-2000 J/kg) and moderate wind shear is expected for some strong to severe storms to be possible this afternoon into this evening with damaging winds and hail possible. Some increase in low-level shear is expected this evening. Enough of which there is a low potential for a tornado or two. The severe potential could continue overnight as the line moves east but may be a bit harder with a weakening trend.

In addition to the severe potential, heavy rain that could lead to flooding will be possible through tonight into Thursday. Models show anomalously high PWATs with 2+" across portions of the fa. With these PWATs, heavy rain is possible with 2-4+ inches possible, especially in parts of south central OK where the heavy rain is most likely. Have expanded the flood watch further north into central OK which goes through Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers/storms will remain possible Thursday into Friday as the upper low continues to move into and across the Plains, eventually opening up into a wave although coverage is expected to be less and the highest rain chances shifting to eastern/northern portions of the fa. A cold front is also expected to move across the region Thursday/Thursday night that could aid in shower/storm development as well. Enough instability could develop for some strong to severe storms to be possible again Thursday. Rain chances are expected to shift southward Friday as the front continues to move south across the region. Locally heavy rain/flooding will also be possible, especially in those areas that receive heavy rain today/tonight.

Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s, although some uncertainty depending on rain/cloud cover, but cooler temperatures are expected Friday as the cooler air moves into the area behind the front. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the upper 60s in northwest OK to the mid/upper 70s in southern OK and western north TX. Cooler nights are also expected with lows in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Several near-to-slightly-cooler-than-normal days await us for the upcoming weekend. Though the ridge will build back in over the Southern Rockies, enough weakness in the ridge will exist for us to feel the full extent of a prolonged period of northwest flow over the Central Plains. That will keep northerly surface winds perhaps as long as Monday evening in our area. Lingering rain chances are expected mostly southeast of I-44 on Saturday, but the rest of the weekend and into Monday looks much drier.

The one constant in 2026 has been that any cooldown can't last long, and sure enough, guidance and our gridded forecast are starting to warm back up beginning next Tuesday. Fortunately, it looks like we'll be doing "October warm" instead of "July warm", with temperatures rebounding into the 80s at most sites. For those in search of more good news, model trends beyond the official long-term period do suggest that we'll be seeing more frontal intrusions in the first half of October.

Meister

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Mostly VFR and MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. However, some guidance is showing the possibility of IFR ceilings at some sites, especially at KDUA, early Thursday. Put a mention of this at KDUA but left out of other TAF sites for now but definitely something to keep an eye on. Showers/storms will be possible through Thursday across portions of the area at times. A line of storms is expected to develop and move east across the area later this evening into Thursday morning with scattered activity possible ahead of the line and after the line moves through. Strong variable winds will be possible with storms this evening/overnight. Heavy rain that reduces visibility will also be possible. Winds will generally be from the S and SE until a cold front begins to move across portions of the area Thursday. However, outflow boundary(ies) could also cause a brief shift in wind.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 69 81 63 71 / 90 50 40 30 Hobart OK 68 84 62 73 / 60 10 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 69 85 65 77 / 80 10 20 30 Gage OK 61 78 54 68 / 30 20 40 10 Ponca City OK 66 78 60 70 / 90 90 60 10 Durant OK 71 80 68 81 / 90 90 60 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ023>032-037>048- 050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ085-086-088>090.