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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Excessive heating returns to parts of our area today and continues through the weekend, with the most dangerous heating across southcentral Oklahoma.

- Isolated rain/storms are possible each day across parts of our area but are very limited in coverage and unorganized.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Despite this morning's welcome rain showers and cloud cover, we are on track to see triple digit temperatures again this afternoon across the forecast area. Generally 100-105 north of I-40 and 105- 110 south of I-40. Additionally, dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s in north central Oklahoma will bump up heat indices into the 105- 110 range there. The heat advisory and extreme heat warning have been expanded.

Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas due primarily to low RH values in the upper teens. Winds will be fairly light, hovering around the threshold that would limit RFTI to 0. ERCs continue above the 95th percentile.

There is some signal for isolated to widely scattered showers this afternoon and evening, driven by diurnal heating, mainly along and south of I-40. CAMs suggest some additional showers overnight in eastern Oklahoma, potentially affecting our eastern counties.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Heat remains the main story for Friday and Saturday, with widespread heat indices in the 105 to 112 range. Heat impacts will be exacerbated by mostly sunny skies (apart from some possible pockets of cloud cover), light winds, and warm overnight lows (70s to low 80s).

We'll be watching fire weather across western Oklahoma and western north Texas as well. RH driven elevated RFTIs will be possible with light winds being the main limiting factor.

We'll also be watching for areas where we may see isolated to scattered showers. Most areas are expected to remain dry, but the ridge is shifted just far enough westward to allow for subtle waves in the upper flow (+ lingering boundary remnants in the area) to trigger some convection.

Day

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridge remains in place across the western two-thirds of the country with the high/heat dome across the Southwestern U.S. with its eastern extend creeping into the Southern Plains. Although northcentral Oklahoma may see another slight break from the heatwave on Sunday from the aforementioned backdoor cool front but returning back on Monday with triple digit highs widespread. A series of mid- level disturbances rounding the ridge may move through on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing rain/storm chances on both days. Fire weather conditions may return early next week across our west but mainly driven by very dry and hot air over dry vegetation from the persisting extreme drought.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

While VFR category is expected to prevail, with an east-to-south wind and areas of mid/high clouds, low chances for rain and storms will continue into Friday, mainly across the eastern one-half of Oklahoma. For now, have only included PROB30 mentions for a limited time at the beginning of the period, near ongoing areas of agitated cumulus growth/rain showers across southeastern Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 76 105 76 104 / 10 10 10 20 Hobart OK 77 108 77 108 / 10 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 79 108 79 109 / 10 0 20 20 Gage OK 72 104 73 102 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 100 74 98 / 20 10 10 10 Durant OK 78 107 77 107 / 10 20 30 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ006>008-011>023-026- 033>038-044.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ024-025- 027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.


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