textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Rainfall is expected across much of the area from Friday evening to Saturday evening. A few instances of severe weather (primarily 1-2 inch hail) are possible.

- Fire weather returns next week, with Tuesday currently forecast to have the greatest fire risk.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Clouds will continue to increase through the day as southwest flow aloft strengthens in advance of a trough currently off Baja California. Surface moisture will also be on the increase as southerly surface winds advect mid 50 to near 60 dewpoints into the area by this afternoon, leading to SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. As ascent from the trough increases expect shower and thunderstorm development by late afternoon and early evening. Transient supercells are possible as mid-level shear increases and will be capable of producing large hail up to the size of golf balls. Activity will likely become more elevated with time Friday evening as the boundary layer cools, but at least a marginal hail threat may persist overnight. Most of the activity Friday evening/overnight will be focused along and NW of the I-44 corridor where locally heavy rainfall could lead to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning as the upper trough axis approaches the panhandles and west Texas. Many of the CAMs are showing a loosely organized line of storms developing across western north TX and southwest OK and moving eastward across central and southern OK through the morning. As of now the risk for QLCS tornadoes appears rather low owing to limited surface instability, but will need to watch closely as shear profiles will be favorable Saturday morning before the low- level jet translates eastward. The upper system will move across the area Saturday afternoon with a dry slot expected to nose in from the southwest (likely leading to a break in precipitation after the morning round). However, redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected across western/central OK and western north TX as mid-level temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen with the approach of the upper low. Would once again expect hail to be the primary hazard with these storms, but will have to watch for the potential for landspouts/ cold air funnels given such steep low- level lapse rates and ambient vorticity with the trough. Precipitation will linger into Saturday evening within the comma head of the upper low, tapering off by sunrise Sunday morning. Dry and mild conditions are then expected in the system's wake Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 60s and widespread sunshine returning by the afternoon. Breezy north winds during the morning are expected to subside through the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Upper ridge building in Monday and increasing south winds will bring warmer temperatures, with highs well into the 70s (as much as 20-25 degrees warmer than average). A series of lows originating from the Pacific will be tracking across the Central Plains through mid-week. A tightening pressure gradient with these surface lows will result in windy conditions, especially late Monday into Tuesday night enhanced by mixing into a strong southerly low-level jet. Increasing surface moisture will be sharpening up a dryline across western Texas with very dry air from New Mexico spreading across the Texas/OK Panhandles. This will all increase fire weather conditions on Tuesday & Wednesday with the highest fire danger risked area across our west where the dryline will be punching through. For now Tuesday will have the highest/critical fire danger risk with Red Flag conditions possible. A potential Pacific cold front may come through lowering temperatures toward Thursday.

68

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Mid to high clouds will increase through the day with generally light south winds. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will increase this evening and continue tonight into Saturday. VFR ceilings and vis will prevail at most sites, though we could see reductions into MVFR/IFR towards the end of the period Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 57 67 47 / 30 90 100 60 Hobart OK 75 54 70 45 / 20 90 90 50 Wichita Falls TX 80 59 72 49 / 20 90 100 50 Gage OK 67 47 64 37 / 20 90 70 20 Ponca City OK 70 53 66 44 / 50 100 100 50 Durant OK 77 59 67 51 / 20 60 100 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.