textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Record heat possible by the end of this week into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues (especially Tuesday) with no precipitation chances through at least this week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Primary concern through the day today will be fire weather. As record-setting ridging begins to entrench itself over the Southwest, intense 500 mb height rise (close to 100 meters in 12 hours) will occur. The ridge will remain well to our west, though, and the ensuing northwest flow will generate widespread surface troughing over the High Plains. With that occurring to the northwest and a remnant 1028 mb high remaining over the Gulf Coast from the previous storm system, near-surface trajectories will come straight off of the Trans-Pecos mountain ranges and the Chihuahuan Desert.

All of this will set up a classic "dry return flow" fire weather environment for us this afternoon. Temperatures will quickly jump back up from our brief sojourn below-normal to reach highs from the mid-60s (east) to mid-70s (west). Dewpoints are currently 10-20 across the area, and without tapping into any moisture source it is hard to envision them rising during daytime mixing. The mitigating factor for fire weather today will be winds. Shallow mixing depths and weak 850-700 mb winds will counteract a reasonably tight pressure gradient and keep southwest winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts in the 30-35 mph range.

A broad area of near-critical fire weather is thus expected from western north Texas northeastward into central/north central Oklahoma. This matches well with the TTU WRF showing RFTIs of 4-5 in the area. Further to the northwest, a weak wind shift will likely keep fire weather in check a little, while further to the southeast, temperatures won't climb quite as much. In that middle near-critical zone, a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The short-term will be notable for one of the more rapid transitions from a brief cool period into a full-blown heat wave you'll ever see. Tonight we'll see temperatures drop to around average with light winds as that weak front/wind shift stalls out in the area. Tomorrow, the ridge axis will shift slightly eastward from the Mojave Desert to the lower Colorado River Valley while continuing to amplify further beyond the bounds of climatology. The surface response will be another 10-15 degrees of warming temperatures compared to today. Fire weather will be limited due to the light winds.

By Thursday the synoptic heat wave will be well into its peak across the Southwest. We'll remain on the eastern fringe of the highest 500 mb heights with pure northerly flow aloft. If this sounds like the kind of pattern that brings in hot temperatures, weak cold fronts, and storms in late July, you'd be right. Unfortunately for us, the radiative balance is going to tilt just a little more toward "sensible heating" than "latent heating" with this occurring in March instead of July, so it will just be a hot and sunny day even with the weak front.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Heat continues to be the name of the game going into the weekend. Friday and Saturday are likely to be among the hottest March days in recorded history on the Southern Plains. This is especially true for Saturday, where each of OKC/Lawton/Wichita Falls is forecast to come within 2 degrees of the March monthly record high (and with operational NBM still sitting between the 25th and 50th percentile, there's a good chance our forecast bumps a degree or two between now and then). Regardless, this will likely be an impactful early-season heat wave especially after the brief cooldown.

The ridge will break down and move eastward during the day on Sunday. This introduces some uncertainty for the first time into what is otherwise a slam-dunk forecast between now and then. Most models show a front accelerating southward across the Plains during the daytime before either stalling in or just south of our area, then making a quick return trip northward on Monday. Just how that evolution occurs will have a big impact on the temperature and fire weather forecast. However, one thing we know: the long-term continues to hold little to no chance for rain.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period with only increasing mid to high cloudiness. Surface winds will be increasing in direction out of the south by 12Z the veering southwest by 16-17Z sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts at 20-30 kts through 00Z. After 01Z expecting surface winds to back out of the south around 10-15 kts with diminishing gusts. There is a low-level jet increasing tonight out of the south- southwest until late morning mixing around 16-17Z. Low- level wind shear will be possible at 6 of our terminals under the jets maxima (35kts at 020 ft) through 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 66 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 71 42 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 44 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 42 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 66 43 78 48 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 62 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-011>031-033>038-044.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.