textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through Wednesday afternoon.

- Rain and scattered thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather are expected late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Chance of snow across northwestern Oklahoma Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1240 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Transient elevated fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon, primarily across western Oklahoma into western north Texas, where relative humidity values have fallen to 20% or lower, as temperatures have risen into mid 60s to low 70s deg F with breezy northerly winds. Any elevated fire weather conditions will end at sunset.

Otherwise, it's another warm day for early January standards with temperatures around 20 deg F above-normal.

Winds will become light and variable this evening as the surface high becomes centered across the area. Winds will shift to the south toward sunrise as the high moves to the east.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1240 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Mid to high cloud cover will increase markedly on Wednesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. By mid to late afternoon, broken to overcast skies are expected. Even so, with the low-level thermal ridge centered across the Southern Plains and a return to southerly winds, temperatures are expected to rise back into the upper 60s to near 80 deg F on Wednesday. It should remain dry during the day Wednesday. Brief, elevated fire weather conditions are possible near the 100th meridian (where relative humidity will fall to around 20 %); however, increasing cloud cover should temper this risk.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, the intense shortwave trough (~90 knots at 500 mb) will lift into the Southern Plains. Isentropic ascent/warm air advection augmented by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the aforementioned wave will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning.

There will be a low risk of strong to severe thunderstorms given the magnitude of low-level wind shear and ~500 J/kg of instability. The primary hazards will be hail and wind gusts given the magnitude of vertical wind shear and the strength of the low-level winds. The uncertainty remains the amount of surface- based instability. While it appears most of the activity will be elevated, surface-based storms are possible if there is sufficient moisture advection. If some surface-based instability can be realized, there will be an attendant QLCS mesovortex/tornado threat given the strong low-level jet and associated low-level wind shear with any linear segments on the leading edge of the dryslot. At this time, the probability for this scenario is low with the most likely scenario scattered showers and storms with some potential for small hail and gusty winds.

With respect to rainfall, some locations have decent chance of getting appreciable rainfall with the highest chance across central/east central Oklahoma. There is a 60 to 80% chance of at least 0.25" of rainfall along and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Even western Oklahoma has around a 30% chance of at least 0.25" of rainfall. There is a 40 to 50% chance of at least 0.50" of rainfall from near the OKC metro to the north and east.

The system will be rapidly moving to the northeast in tandem with the dryslot. As a result, showers and thunderstorms should quickly exit late morning/midday into northeast Oklahoma. In its wake, it'll be another warm afternoon Thursday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s deg F.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1217 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Late Thursday into Friday, another upper trough will approach the southern and central Plains. The expected track of this system will likely limit any precipitation to parts of western and northern Oklahoma. Enough cooling is expected to bring a chance of rain/snow to mainly far northwest Oklahoma Friday morning/afternoon. Currently highs are expected to reach the mid 40s across this part of the state, but if precipitation and clouds linger, highs may remain in the 30s. Little if any snow accumulation is anticipated.

After the Friday system, generally dry conditions are anticipated through Monday. It's possible another low will move south from Canada and into the Missouri Valley over the weekend. If this occurs, forecast highs will need to be lowered compared to current NBM values.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 951 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through 08/06Z. High clouds will increase through the night with mid-level clouds beginning to move in Wednesday morning. Light winds overnight will increase from the south. Non-convective low-level wind shear will develop Wednesday evening across northern and central Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 42 69 56 68 / 0 0 80 50 Hobart OK 39 70 50 70 / 0 0 80 30 Wichita Falls TX 41 76 57 73 / 0 0 70 30 Gage OK 36 69 44 63 / 0 0 70 30 Ponca City OK 36 68 51 68 / 0 0 70 60 Durant OK 42 73 58 73 / 0 0 40 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.