textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Dry with near record to record-breaking temperatures through Saturday.

- Cold front arrives on Sunday with strong northerly winds, chances for light rain, and plummeting temperatures.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected in the west on Sunday due to breezy conditions, and Monday (and potentially Tuesday) due to low humidity.

NEAR TERM

(Saturday and Saturday night) Issued at 100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Yet another very warm day is expected today with record high temperatures for the day expected to be broken by 5 to 8 degrees. High clouds will increase and winds will increase from the south/southwest through the day as well. Lows will remain quite warm overnight tonight thanks to the high clouds, 10-15 mph winds and increasing dewpoints. The lows will be in the low to mid 60s across the southeastern half of the forecast area... which would be record warm low temperatures for Sunday morning if the daily low would be the typical diurnal morning low, but it won't be because cold air is coming.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The cold front will be moving into northwestern Oklahoma early Sunday morning with significantly cooler air and gusty north winds (25-30 mph with highest gusts) behind it. We expect the front to move into and through the area a bit faster than many models suggest which is a recurring theme with a cold airmass moving down the Plains. Have made significant adjustments from NBM hourly temperature forecast to better capture the expected diurnal trend as the NBM is likely a little slow in adjusting to a quicker frontal timing. We have also increased the forecast post-frontal wind speeds on Sunday compared to NBM.

There is some potential for precipitation across north central and eastern sections of the area near and just behind the front as the front encounters higher low-level moisture, but POPs are still generally 20 percent at most. Farther west and northwest, there is still some potential for sprinkles, but low-level dry air moves in fairly quickly behind the front, so we include the mention in the weather grids even though the chance of measurable precipitation is less than 20 percent. As the cooler air filters into northwest Oklahoma, these sprinkles may transition into a few flurries before ending.

We remain in the cool airmass with northerly low-level flow on Monday and highs will be below normal.

Fire weather: Despite the cooler weather moving in on Sunday, the strong northerly post-frontal winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions across most of the area, although humidity will remain high enough to prevent getting into near-critical conditions.

On Monday, dewpoints are expected to fall into the single digits across the area which will allow humidity to fall to less than 25 percent across most of the forecast area and down to 15-20 percent across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Fire weather conditions will be elevated again on Monday afternoon across the west where humidity will fall below 20 percent, although winds will not be as strong as Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The below-normal temperatures on Monday will be short-lived as the surface ridge moves east of the area and south/southwest low-level flow returns. Temperatures warm a little more on Wednesday, although we will remain well below the heat we have experienced the last few days. A ridge aloft builds in the western United States with northwesterly flow aloft generally from the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic. The strongest flow remains to the northeast keeping the coldest airmass north and northeast of the forecast area, but there will be a wave move southeast in this northwesterly flow that will help push a cold front into the area. Right now this looks most likely to be Wednesday night and this will bring near-normal temperatures back into the area late in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Winds will increase today from the south/southwest. Ceilings will mainly be high-level with cirrus clouds moving across the area. Some lower clouds and local MVFR ceilings will be possible early Sunday morning, but right now it appears that the potential is still relatively low and will not include low ceilings in the TAFs this morning. Strong southwest winds developing overnight above the surface will create non-convective low-level wind shear late tonight and early Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 63 63 26 / 0 0 20 0 Hobart OK 80 59 61 24 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 85 64 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 82 49 50 20 / 0 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 76 62 62 22 / 0 10 20 0 Durant OK 82 65 72 30 / 0 0 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.