textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Cold front moving through the area today and tonight bringing rain chances and relief from the heat.

- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered showers and some storms have been developing all morning and continue early this afternoon as an area of lift shifts east across the area. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to slowly move south across the area today. This front could also be a focus for additional storm development this afternoon. Enough instability (1500-2500 J/kg) is expected this afternoon/evening for strong to severe storms to be possible with damaging winds and hail the main concerns. The potential for severe storms will decrease late this evening but showers/storms will remain possible as the cold front continues to move south.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front mainly across northern OK where highs in the mid/upper 80s are expected. Unfortunately for those ahead of the front, especially in southern OK and western north TX, one more hot day is expected with afternoon highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. Triple digit heat index values are also expected in this area with heat index values around 105 possible in some locations.

With cooler air filtering into the area behind the cold front, temperatures tonight will be cooler than this morning with lows in the 60s to around 70 across the fa.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Showers/storms will be possible in parts of southern OK and western north TX near or just behind the cold front. There are also some rain chances in NW parts of the fa Monday morning. Models show showers/storms developing in the upslope flow behind the front later today/tonight. This activity is expected to develop into a complex that moves towards the area overnight and then could move into NW parts of the fa Monday morning.

Rain chances will continue on Tuesday as well but mainly in southwest or western portions of the fa. These chances are mainly due to showers/storms that develop west of the area in the upslope flow and then move into the fa.

Cooler temperatures are expected across the area Monday and Tuesday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday are expected to range from the low/mid 80s in northern OK to the low/mid 90s along the Red River. Cooler nighttime temperatures are also expected. Northern OK could see temperatures as low as the mid/upper 50s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Although an upper ridge builds from Texas toward the mid- Mississippi Valley mid week, the ridge is weaker than we have seen recently and we still have the more seasonable low-level airmass in place. Increasing southwest flow aloft develops across northwestern Oklahoma with a series of shortwaves approaching in this southwest flow. These waves will help keep precipitation chances in the forecast mid to late week, primarily across the western and northern portions of the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A mid-level shortwave trough digging across the Central and Southern Plains will continue to push a cold front down at the surface producing a northerly wind shift behind this surface boundary. This will also increase chances for storm activity across central through southern Oklahoma into northern Texas between 18-10Z although highest probabilities with TEMPO groups ending by 04Z. However will end storm chances earlier by 22Z across terminals KSWO & KPNC in northern Oklahoma. Expecting high-based ceilings with any storms although reduced visibilities in rain could produce brief periods of below VFR categories as well as variable gusty winds from the storm outflow. After 04Z could see broken stratus producing low ceilings coming down from Kansas resulting in periods of MVFR to potentially IFR categories across northern Oklahoma and perhaps into central Oklahoma after 12Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 85 64 85 / 40 10 10 0 Hobart OK 67 90 65 88 / 10 10 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 68 93 66 90 / 20 20 30 20 Gage OK 61 83 60 83 / 10 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 63 83 60 81 / 20 10 10 0 Durant OK 70 95 68 94 / 70 30 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.