textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 548 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday evening and overnight across western into central Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening across far west central and southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas.

- Rainy pattern continues through middle of next week with near seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A shortwave will dig northeast into the Northern Plains Friday with a surface low deepening over South Dakota and a cold front draping southward across the Central Plains. Afternoon convection is likely to develop across West Texas later this afternoon along a dryline. A disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft will help to drive storms eastward into the evening hours. Storms will move into the warm sector ahead of the incoming cold front with ample instability, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and shear around 20-30 knots, to support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Morning clouds will begin to break in the afternoon with some peeks of sunshine. Temperatures will warm to near normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The evening storms are expected to continue to push eastward through Friday night across Oklahoma. There isn't much of a low- level jet present, but the disturbance aloft may be enough to keep storms persisting overnight into eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the cold front will dive southward into northern Oklahoma and bring additional storms along and just behind the frontal boundary. Some storms may remain strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary hazard, but some large hail may be possible as well. Most of the overnight convection will be pushing out of the area by Saturday morning. However, additional showers and isolated storms may develop across southern Oklahoma along the front Saturday morning.

Afternoon showers and storms will be possible once again Saturday across West Texas with another disturbance aloft. A lack of strong southwesterly flow aloft and little to no low-level jet, the chance for storms to continue and maintain as they push eastward into Oklahoma Saturday evening will be low. However, if a storms can sustain into Oklahoma, it could become strong to severe with winds and hail as the primary hazards.

An upper low will develop over north Texas Sunday with rain chances mostly being kept east and south of our forecast area. Temperatures will remain near seasonable this weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

In the wake of the upper low over Texas, another trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest and bring continued southwesterly flow and several disturbances through the week. Thus, daily shower and storm chances will continue through most of next week. There is a low-to-medium chance for greater than 2 inches of rainfall through the end of next week with the highest chances (40-70%) across southeast and into central and south central Oklahoma and decreasing chances (<40%) westward.

Temperatures will float around normal through much of next week in the 70s to 80s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Restrictions to ceilings/visibilities are expected to continue through the morning hours across much of the area. There should be gradual improvement through the day, with deteriorating conditions towards the end of the period. A line of thunderstorms from the Texas Panhandle will move eastward this evening through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 79 61 78 61 / 10 90 50 50 Hobart OK 82 59 80 59 / 10 90 60 60 Wichita Falls TX 84 61 82 61 / 10 80 70 60 Gage OK 79 54 75 54 / 40 80 30 40 Ponca City OK 78 60 77 59 / 20 60 50 40 Durant OK 82 65 81 65 / 20 70 70 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.