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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
- Excessive heat today with an extreme risk for heat related illnesses. Time outdoors should be limited with plenty of lengthy breaks and hydration.
- Dangerous heat is expected to persist most days into at least the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Continued heat heading into this weekend with the upper ridge building over the Southern Rockies. Temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 105 degrees and with continued low-level moisture, expect widespread heat indices of at least 105 to 110 degrees. Areas across northern into central Oklahoma will have higher dewpoints, which may give way to heat indices of 110 to 115 degrees. Therefore an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the aforementioned area from 11 AM to 9 PM today. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the same time frame. Light winds coupled with heat and humidity will give way to a high to extreme heat risk with time spent outdoors being limited and plenty of hydration needed. Some afternoon showers and storms may attempt to develop this afternoon across portions of northern into central Oklahoma, but any updraft will be fighting subsidence from the upper ridge. However, if a storm does develop, DCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg could lead to strong to damaging winds with any downdrafts from decaying storms. Chances are very low, but the greatest timeframe would be during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The trend of very hot temperatures continues Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge continues to remain nearly stationary and widespread triple digit temperatures are expected both days. The biggest difference will be that surface troughing to the west may introduce some drier air and scour some of the low-level moisture that was bringing the humidity and extreme heat risk conditions. However, despite some reduction in dewpoints, heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees may still be possible. Therefore, expect at least a potential for a Heat Advisory to be issued across portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. Any precipitation chances are pretty much zero with subsidence over the forecast area.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The remainder of next week will continue to feature very hot temperatures and the potential for daily Heat Advisories. The upper ridge will center more over New Mexico, which will bring back north northwesterly flow through the week. Afternoon convection along the higher terrain in Colorado could be driven southeast by any embedded shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft into northern Oklahoma during the late evening and overnight hours, but currently the chances remain low. A weak cold front late in the week may bring some relief to the triple digit heat by next weekend.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
All terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. There is a 15% probability for scattered rain and/or isolated thunderstorms develop across northwest Oklahoma in the vicinity of the KWWR terminal between 22-01Z. However this probability is too low to be ingested into the KWWR terminal forecast but is mentionable for this discussion. Surface winds will remain out of the south-southwest at 10 gusting 15 kts as our overnight low-level jet weakens. By 01Z surface winds back more out of the south at 5-10 kts then veer south-southwest by 14Z at 10kt with gusts 20-25 kts due to late morning mixing into a weak low- level jet.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 101 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 103 77 105 76 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 101 78 103 77 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 103 76 105 76 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 100 79 103 79 / 10 10 0 0 Durant OK 99 79 101 78 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-010- 014>016-021>023-027>048-050>052.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008- 011>013-017>020-024>026.
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
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