textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- A few strong to severe storms may be possible late tonight across far western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing rain and storm chances return again mid-week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A line of storms will be pushing through the eastern portions of the forecast area by around sunrise. Most of the severe threat will have ended and much of the activity will come as much needed rain. However, a few strong updrafts may persist with enough elevated instability for small hail and gusty winds.

In the wake of the convection this morning, clouds should begin to break by the afternoon hours and temperatures will still rise to near normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This afternoon will likely feature a lull in any precipitation before another disturbance aloft helps to kick off afternoon convection along the higher terrain in New Mexico and into West Texas. See the short term for more details on the storm potential late tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Weak westerly steering flow aloft will bring storms towards western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late tonight, likely after 10 PM. Shear will once again be minimal with a lack of a low-level jet to keep storms going overnight. However, there will be enough MUCAPE 500-1500 J/kg that will support a few strong to severe updrafts as they enter the area. Similar to last night, the updrafts may be pulse-like at first but eventually weaken/decay as they continue eastward into south central Oklahoma and north Texas.

Sunday and Monday will feature our driest days in the forecast with a break in precipitation as an upper low develops in north Texas and brings weak northerly flow aloft. Should see some sunshine return with temperatures remaining near or slightly above normal in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after developing along the higher terrain to the west.

However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and storms chances could continue through next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward this morning. Conditions should improve through the morning. Additional storms are possible later this evening into the overnight hours across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 79 62 81 63 / 50 20 10 0 Hobart OK 81 60 84 61 / 30 40 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 83 62 83 62 / 20 40 10 10 Gage OK 76 54 84 60 / 40 20 0 10 Ponca City OK 78 59 81 61 / 70 10 0 0 Durant OK 83 66 82 66 / 60 30 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.