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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Dry with record-breaking temperatures this afternoon. - Cold front arrives on Sunday with strong northerly winds, plummeting temperatures and low rain chances in the southeast.

- Elevated to near Critical fire weather conditions expected on Sunday due to windy conditions, and elevated Monday across the west (and potentially Tuesday) due to low humidity.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Another day of record temperatures across Oklahoma and north Texas as much of the area will climb into the 80s this afternoon. After only hitting 80 degrees three times in the month of December at OKC since 1890, by the end of the day today we will hit it twice this week.

Otherwise, breezy this afternoon with some increasing mid/high clouds ahead of a shortwave trough that will become sheared out overnight. However, a much stronger shortwave will drop southeast through the northern into central Rockies overnight. As this wave drops southeast, a strong surface cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma toward morning. Ahead of this front expect another very mild night with breezy south winds and night time lows some 10 to nearly 20 degrees warmer than our normal daytime highs for late December.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The cold front will be in northwest Oklahoma as we start the day and will move quickly southeast during the morning hours. Strong north winds and falling temperatures will accompany the front. Will issue wind advisory for much of the area on Sunday. Low level moisture will be missing outside of perhaps southeast Oklahoma for any appreciable precipitation to occur with the front.

In addition, much drier air will filter south in the wake of the cold front, but afternoon RH values are expected to remain above 30%. However strong, gusty north winds and dormant vegetation will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

Winds will decrease by late in the day, but remain brisk overnight. This along with clearing skies and dewpoints dropping into the single digits will result in wind chills by Monday morning in the teens and single digits. Much different from the past week. Actual air temperatures will drop into the 20s.

With the cold air entrenched over the area Monday and quite a bit of high clouds, temperatures will struggle to warm during the day. Afternoon highs will only climb into the 30s in the central and north with 40s southwest and south.

With regards to fire weather; after poor overnight RH recovery and very low dewpoints in place (perhaps some below 0 dewpoints possible) daytime RH values will drop into the 15% to 25% range by afternoon, with the lowest across the west and south. North winds will not be as strong as Sunday, but still be 15-20 mph through a good part of the day. So even with the cold temperatures, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much of western Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The below-normal temperatures on Monday will be short-lived as the surface ridge moves east of the area and south/southwest low-level flow returns. Temperatures warm a little more on Wednesday, although we will remain well below the heat we have experienced the last few days. A ridge aloft builds in the western United States with northwesterly flow aloft generally from the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic. The strongest flow remains to the northeast keeping the coldest airmass north and northeast of the forecast area, but there will be a wave move southeast in this northwesterly flow that will help push a cold front into the area. Right now this looks most likely to be Wednesday night and this will bring near-normal temperatures back into the area late in the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

South to southwest winds will remain breezy overnight, with transient low level wind shear possible at most sites. By morning a front will reach northwest Oklahoma, bringing strong northerly winds behind it and reaching KDUA by mid afternoon.

MVFR (low chance IFR) ceilings are expected to move into south central Oklahoma before dawn, with a low chances of making it as far northwest as the I-44 corridor. This stratus deck should clear west to east Sunday morning.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 67 26 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 63 23 43 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 72 28 46 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 50 52 20 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 61 62 22 37 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 65 77 30 43 / 0 20 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM CST Sunday for OKZ004>029- 033>039-044-045.

TX...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM CST Sunday for TXZ083>090.