textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1139 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Unseasonably hot through Monday with this trend ending Tuesday

- Dry through Monday with a 15-20% chance for rain on Tuesday

- Rain & storm chances increase Wednesday with the potential for much cooler weather by the end of the week

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Heating trend continues today across the Southern Plains as an upper high settles over our forecast area. Expecting afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of our area. Higher surface moisture in place should keep parts of southcentral Oklahoma a few degrees cooler in the mid 80s, although it will feel more muggy there.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Unseasonably hot & dry conditions will persist going into the weekend with upper 80s to lower 90s highs which will be 10-15 degrees above normal for early October. Did go slightly warmer than the NBM for Saturdays MaxT using the CONSMOS nudged 50%.

Models in good agreement with a weak cut-off low just off the northern California coast developing into a trough and interacting with potentially two different tropical storms as it digs further south in the eastern Pacific. Of course this weather system setting up in the Pacific this weekend won't be impacting our area until the latter half of next week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

On Sunday, the remnants of "Isaias" is expected to be tracking up the Mississippi Delta Region. The circulation from this post- tropical system will be building a ridge upstream/westward across the Southern Plains which will result in hotter daytime temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Our area could see highs in the lower to mid 90s for Sunday & Monday and warmer nights which will be near record- breaking for this time of the year. A system moving through the main jet stream across the Northeastern U.S. may push the first of two cold fronts across our area for next week, with the latter much stronger at the end of the week. Deterministic models are not consistent with the handling of the first front with the ECMWF & NBM pushing it into our area Tuesday before stalling out across southwest Oklahoma while the GFS stalls it out up in Kansas. Based on the first solution, much of our area could see a slight cool-down Tuesday from hot to still unseasonably warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s although our southwest CWA could stay hot. There is also a 15-20% chance for scattered rain on Tuesday with this first potential frontal passage. Rain & Storm chances increase becoming more widespread on Wednesday as a large Pacific- based system starts digging across the U.S. Southwest toward the Southern Plains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions and light winds continue into this morning with speeds increasing slightly mid-morning Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 61 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 63 91 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 60 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 61 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 62 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.