textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Above-normal temperatures this afternoon with fire weather conditions across central and southern Oklahoma and western- north Texas.

- A cold front Tuesday night will usher in a return towards seasonable temperatures and gusty northerly winds on Wednesday. Fire weather conditions are also expected during the afternoon. - A stronger cold front late in the week may bring additional periods of gusty winds and fire weather conditions

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Unseasonably warm weather, with afternoon fire danger across central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas, will continue today. A downsloped warmed airmass will play a significant role across the forecast area through the day. Warmest temperatures are expected near and south of the I-40 corridor, where several readings in the low-70s are likely by the late afternoon.

We are once again expecting emergence of (at least) elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas after the lunchtime hour. This risk will be driven by the combination of very low afternoon humidity (perhaps <15% in spots near and south of the Red River) and dry fuels. Fortunately, another period of modest wind magnitudes (i.e., sustained winds near and below 15 mph) will likely preclude more problematic fire weather conditions/categories.

Still, provided the overlap of low humidity and dry fuels, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been posted for the aforementioned region from 11 AM to 6 PM Tuesday.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A prominent frontal passage will commence during the initial hours of Wednesday, as a longwave trough (and associated embedded shortwaves) begins to slide southeastward across the eastern CONUS. While a brief period of gusty northerly winds is anticipated gust behind the front overnight, a more sustained period of strong wind gusts is likely after 9-10 AM. Gusts to 35-40 mph will be possible throughout the day on Wednesday. The current spatiotemporal character of Wind Advisory-level gust magnitudes (>40 mph) is such that a headline is not currently anticipated.

Despite most areas being solidly in the post-frontal airmass by the early afternoon on Wednesday, temperatures look to remain near mid- January averages (upper-40s north to near 60 degrees far south). Even with slightly cooler conditions, the combination of a gusty north wind and continued dry air will foster rather widespread potential for fire weather conditions across Oklahoma and western-north Texas during the afternoon.

Despite a very cold start on Thursday (areawide wind chills in the 20s), a generally warm and pleasant weather day is expected into the afternoon. Another warm downsloped airmass will quickly advance overhead during the daytime, along with re-establishing south-southwesterly winds (due to a weak lee cyclone to our northwest). Temperatures will range from the mid-60s near the 100th meridian to mid-50s across eastern Oklahoma, where residual influence from the prior/departing system looks to continue through sunset.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The approach of a strong southeastward-diving upper wave late in the week will foster another chance for a strong frontal passage and associated cooler temperatures. While the initial front looks to sweep across the forecast area early on Friday, seasonable conditions (50s) are currently advertised during the daytime. With another bout of gusty (>30-35 mph) northerly winds and low relative humidity (<20-25%), a potentially concerning fire environment is possible on Friday afternoon, particularly across western Oklahoma.

The brunt of the associated cooler airmass will begin to be felt by Saturday morning, as a 1032+ millibar surface high quickly races southward across the Central Plains. The associated track of the aforementioned surface high (and associated upper trough) will be significant players on sensible conditions by Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday. We continue to note a large spread in potential high temperatures on Sunday (upper-30s/40s vs. 50s/low-60s) in ensemble guidance.

Our prolonged period of dry weather looks to continue through the weekend, with nil chance for precipitation currently captured in our gridded forecast.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

Southwest to westerly winds are expected today. These winds will gradually shift toward the west-northwest and northwest this evening with a cold front. The strongest/gustiest winds are expected to lag behind the initial wind shift with a secondary surge as winds veer toward the north. Low-level wind shear is expected overnight with the cold front passage. Mid to high level clouds are also expected to increase behind the cold front.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 44 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 71 42 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 43 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 39 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 66 41 47 24 / 0 10 0 0 Durant OK 68 45 55 28 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.