textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Cooler-than-normal temperatures will continue through early Thursday.

- Frost possible Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

- Heat returns on Saturday and again toward the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Our entire area sits behind a rather strong cold front early this morning. Dry air advection has been somewhat unimpressive, but widespread cloudiness has still dropped temperatures into the low 50s pretty early in the night. How much further temperatures drop will largely be a product of that cold/dry advection with cloudy conditions continuing.

Furthermore, storms have developed on the nose of the frontal zone aloft in southeast Oklahoma. 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE are in place south of that elevated front, which is at least attempting to migrate northward slightly. Extreme wind shear aloft underneath a subtropical jet streak will support some organization to elevated cores, which combined with cold surface temperatures will favor hail in the strongest storms. This will continue until about daybreak, when renewed cold advection shoves the elevated front south of our area.

Pressure rises continue for the rest of the day as a 1022 mb surface high slides southward across the Front Range. On the southern fringe of that, easterly winds will continue a classic spring upslope storm on the high terrain. With strong mid-to-upper westerlies above this, there's at least a chance for some pockets of rain to move eastward into far northern/northwestern Oklahoma during the daytime and especially the evening as the surface low moves further south. Forecast soundings show unsaturated boundary layers; therefore, totals will be light.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The main impact of the short term will actually occur right as the short term commences - cold temperatures Thursday morning. NBM data continue to run colder than the short-range model guidance with lows in Ellis/Harper/Woodward Counties sitting in the 32-35 range (contrasted with NAM/HRRR showing lows of close to 38). However, tend to think NBM is going to be closer to correct here than direct model output, as forecast soundings show the surface moist layer that would impede further cooling to be extremely shallow. With clearing skies out west, this is a recipe for surprising temperature tanks. It is quite possible that Frost Advisories will become necessary in northwest Oklahoma for tomorrow morning.

The surface high responsible for the cold temperatures will weaken and move southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Behind it, a sunny and mild afternoon with little wind is expected.

Southerly winds pick up beginning Thursday night, which will render low temperatures a solid 10 degrees warmer than the prior night. That will continue into Friday as return flow commences in earnest. Most model data shows a dry sector/dry return flow regime further west across the Panhandles and far western Oklahoma, but this will be complicated by another weak cold front moving into northwest Oklahoma during the day. Elevated fire weather is expected out west, but the extent and magnitude of the fire weather is uncertain due to this frontal interaction. Low storm chances will exist Friday night along that boundary, but again, uncertainty remains high.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Ridging begins to amplify across the Intermountain West during the day on Saturday, kicking us into a transition period. With northwest flow, increasing heat/moisture, and yet another cold front approaching on Saturday night, more widespread rain/storm chances will be realized. Meanwhile, temperatures during the day Saturday will soar 10-20 degrees above usual.

Rain chances continue across the southern half of the area Sunday as postfrontal temperatures return closer to normal. From there, the signal continues to grow for ridging to approach our area with much, much hotter temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, the severe risk looks below normal in the coming week, but that doesn't mean the severe risk will be absolutely zero. Something similar could be said about the fire risk in northwest Oklahoma, where problematic conditions may occur one or more days in the coming week.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Scattered to broken low clouds which have been hovering around MVFR/VFR thresholds all morning are expected to erode/lift through the afternoon. Northeast winds will decrease by this evening and become more variable overnight, gradually becoming westerly by Thursday morning at most locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 43 73 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 41 76 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 46 76 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 32 75 48 85 / 50 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 38 70 49 85 / 10 0 0 10 Durant OK 50 72 51 82 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014-015.

TX...None.