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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Dangerous heat expected through the week and the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Slight height rises occur today as upper high begins to build southeast into the southern Plains. Meanwhile in the lower levels, veered flow, and abundant insolation will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper 90s and lower 100s. Still sufficient boundary layer moisture to get heat indices to climb near of above 100 degrees across the entire area. Parts of northern into central and southern will likely reach advisory levels and will continue with a heat advisory and expand further west.

Monday night will be clear and very mild with temperatures only falling into the middle and upper 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Not much change for the middle of the week as surface front will approach northern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon with strong thermal ridge (pre-frontal torch) to the south of the front across Oklahoma. This along with a continuation of height rises aloft will set the stage for one of the hottest days of the year across Oklahoma and north Texas. Highs Tuesday afternoon will range from near 100 to 107 across the area. Although the westerly component to the winds will gradually help mix out some of the low level moisture, it still appears that widespread heat indices in the 105-110 degree range will likely occur. Heat advisory will likely be needed for much of the area Tuesday afternoon.

Models have trended a bit more aggressive with the southward push of the front on Wednesday, but other than a few degrees of cooling, most of it being felt across north-central Oklahoma, not much of an impact is expected other than a wind direction change. Still looks like portions of central and much of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas will see afternoon heat indices of 105-110 degrees. The front is expected to lift back to the north Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Another hot day across the area on Thursday. However both the GFS and Euro are now showing a stronger wave moving through the Plains on Thursday night and Friday. The GFS being the stronger of the two models, which might suppress the ridge sufficiently for a front to move into the area along with perhaps some precip chances Friday into Saturday. The Euro is more reserved and keeps the precip to our north and east, so we will not get overly excited about this prospect yet, but it is something to watch. The latest NBM is introducing some low pops for late Friday. However, the better bet is for a few degrees of cooling, otherwise, the heat will continue through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.

I guess one thing to watch is the gulf as a possible tropical system takes shape over the next couple of days. Currently is does not appear that this system will have any direct impact on Oklahoma or north Texas as the upper high keeps the system well to our south across south Texas into northern Mexico.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR category will prevail during the upcoming valid period. Fair- weather cumulus coverage and corresponding rain/thunder risk will be lower on Monday (compared to prior days) due to drier/southwesterly wind trajectories throughout the morning hours.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 99 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 99 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 99 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 99 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 99 78 102 76 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 99 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>026-028>032-039>043- 045>048-050>052.

TX...None.