textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma and north Texas on Tuesday afternoon with continued fire weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday.

- Strong winds are expected across western Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon with southwest wind gusts between 40 to 55 mph.

- Near-record warmth is expected on Tuesday with highs 70s and 80s.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Warmer weather has returned today with rising mid-level heights, a strengthening low-level thermal ridge to the west, and the return of southerly winds across Oklahoma and north Texas. Temperatures are around ~20 deg F above-normal for mid-February in the 70s deg F.

The warmer weather, combined with breezy southerly winds, has resulted in elevated fire weather conditions across northwest Oklahoma where drier air has advected eastward with veered low- level flow.

Southerly winds will stay breezy tonight, which will result in a rather warm night. As a matter of fact, low temperatures will be near our average high temperatures for this time of year (mid 50s deg F).

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fire weather will be the primary concern Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. See the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

Near-record warmth is expected on Tuesday as the low-level thermal ridge expands farther to the east ahead of an approaching intense, shortwave trough (~105 knots at 500 mb and ~75 knots at 700 mb). High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s deg F.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will result in a strengthening pressure gradient as a surface low deepens in central Plains. The dryline will advance eastward into western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas in the afternoon as the deepening surface low accelerates eastward across the Plains. The strengthening pressure gradient, combined with a strong wind field aloft, will result in gusty south to southwest winds.

Vertical mixing into the strong winds aloft (~50 knots at 850 mb) will result in wind gusts at least between 40 to 55 mph with the strongest winds expected across western Oklahoma (behind the dryline). There will likely be dense cirrus (forecast soundings indicate ~15,000 to 20,000 ft deep) that should limit vertical mixing. However, if the cirrus breaks up before sunset, wind gusts could easily reach 60+ mph in northwest/west central Oklahoma behind the dryline owing to ~75 knot winds at 700 mb. The HREF indicates the possibility of cirrus decreasing between 4 and 6 PM tomorrow across northwest Oklahoma.

The Pacific front/dryline will advance eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will bring slightly cooler and much drier air mass eastward across the area. Winds will shift to the west before returning back to the southwest by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, Wednesday will be slightly cooler (~5 to 10 deg F) but still well above-normal for mid-February.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday for areas to the north as a Pacific front starts to make its way across the area. This boundary will kick off much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Precipitation chances will return early Friday morning and will continue into Sunday morning. As of right now, precipitation amounts are expected to be light.

Bunker

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A moderate southerly wind will prevail this evening with low-level wind shear developing after 5-6Z at most terminals. High clouds will thicken overnight into Tuesday with VFR conditions. There is a medium chance of MVFR ceilings developing near DUA on Tuesday morning. Strong, gusty, southwesterly winds will develop after 14-15Z Tuesday with the strongest winds across northwest to west central Oklahoma.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fire weather will be our primary hazard through Thursday this week.

The worst fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday across western Oklahoma, where critical to locally extremely critical conditions are expected. However, Wednesday and Thursday will have fire weather conditions across most of the area as drier air spreads eastward. Fuels will become more receptive to fires throughout the week with continued drying and poor relative humidity recovery at nighttime. Therefore, Wednesday and Thursday are also days of concern given the fuel component of the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will become volatile with time.

For Tuesday, critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions are expected across northwest into west central Oklahoma with critical fire weather conditions into western north Texas. An intense shortwave trough, ~105 knots at 500 mb and ~75 knots at 700 mb, will lift into the Southern Plains in tandem with the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge (+18 to 19 deg C at 850 mb). Due to the low-level thermal ridge, afternoon temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s deg F with near record warmth expected (~20 to 25 deg F above-normal). The dryline will advance eastward by the afternoon as a surface low accelerates eastward across the Plains, allowing relative humidity values to fall to around 15% or lower across western Oklahoma into portions of western north Texas. Vertical mixing into strong winds aloft (~50 knots at 850 mb) will result in wind gusts at least to 55 mph across northwest Oklahoma behind the dryline. The strong winds and low relative humidity values will result in at least critical fire weather conditions with the potential for locally extreme conditions.

There will likely be dense cirrus on Tuesday that would limit vertical mixing and the heating of fine fuels due to less solar insolation. The 12Z HREF does indicate the potential for some breaks in the cirrus across far northwest Oklahoma between 4 and 6 PM. If there are breaks in the cirrus before sunset, wind gusts could reach 60+ mph in northwest/west central Oklahoma owing to ~75 knot winds at 700 mb. Either way, Tuesday has the potential to be a significant fire day across western Oklahoma (especially in areas that did not receive appreciable rainfall).

The Pacific front/dryline will advance eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will bring much drier air mass eastward across the area. As a result, poor relative humidity recovery is expected overnight.

While winds will be lighter on Wednesday and Thursday due to the departing shortwave trough, moderate mid to low-level flow will persist across the Southern Plains. Therefore, while the magnitude of the fire weather risk will be lower than Tuesday due to weaker winds, a larger part of the area will see fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday due to humidity values below 20% across most of the area with veered low-level flow. The low relative humidity will combine with breezy winds to result in at least some near-critical fire weather conditions with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. At the same time, fuels will continue to get drier with time, which will keep the total fire environment conducive to wildfires.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 56 77 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 53 81 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 83 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 53 81 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 53 75 44 74 / 0 0 10 0 Durant OK 52 73 55 75 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for OKZ004>007- 009>012-014>018-021>024-027-033>038.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029- 033>038.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ083-084- 087.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ083.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.