textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across the western third of Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas.

- Low shower and storm chances late Tuesday through Thursday, mostly across portions of northern Oklahoma.

- Hot temperatures continue through the week with triple digit heat and at least a moderate heat risk.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The surface low is spinning over southwest Kansas this morning with the front draped across Kansas and down into the western OK/TX Panhandles. Scattered showers and storms are developing along the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. This activity is pushing southeast with weak northwesterly flow aloft as the upper ridge continues to spin over the Desert Southwest and is extending eastward over Oklahoma with a shortwave translating eastward north of the ridge across the Northern Rockies and Plains. There is a low chance for virga and light rain showers to move into northwest Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. With a very dry and well mixed boundary layer, cloud bases will be at least above 1500 meters and therefore the primary hazard would be gusty to strong winds/dry downbursts.

South southwest surface winds will persist through most of the day with some low end breezes of up to 20 to 25 mph. Temperatures areawide are likely to breach triple digits today and thankfully with dry air mixing will keep humidity values and the heat risk lower. Temperatures are borderline Heat Advisory but no headline has been issued given the fact that humidity is helping to lower the heat risk and the pattern has been consistently promoting summertime heat.

Elevated fire weather conditions have returned again today across the western third of Oklahoma and portions of adjacent western north Texas with the very hot temperatures, drier air and lack of substantial rainfall in the last week or more. Fuels and soil moistures continue to show drying with a concern for initial attack fires. Thus, any storms that develop could produce cloud-to-ground lightning and pose an additional risk for fire starts.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The surface low will push southeastward across Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and bring the front farther into northwest and northern Oklahoma. The front is likely to stall Wednesday morning somewhere across the northern half to one-third of Oklahoma. Low chances for light rain showers and isolated storms will continue Wednesday into Wednesday night along the frontal boundary with the highest chances across north central Oklahoma and into Kansas, closer to the stronger shortwave aloft. Once again any showers and storms that develop could produce gusty winds and lightning. Temperatures will once again be very hot in the triple digits and with some moisture return, heat indices will rise to 100 to 110 degrees with the highest values across portions of central into southeast Oklahoma where a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM. There is some uncertainty in temperatures and heat indices across north central Oklahoma and into central Oklahoma given the potential for some cloud cover with any shower/storm activity along the frontal boundary. Additionally, NBM continues to come in too aggressive with moisture return, which is why areas along the Red River into western north Texas were left out of the Heat Advisory for now.

Thursday will feature another hot day, but may be a bit cooler across portions of northern Oklahoma due to increased cloud cover and low chances for showers and storms. The best moisture return will be along the Red River and into western north Texas with the greatest chances for needing a Heat Advisory, but there is some uncertainty due to cloud cover and the fact that dry air mixing has been a bit more aggressive than the model blends are forecasting. Another shortwave along the Rockies will allow the ridge to retreat a bit and open the door to a bit stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Evening convection will push southeastward towards northern Oklahoma with a chance for storms capable of gusty to strong winds during the evening and overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rain chances (20-40%) continue into Friday as the upper wave moves through and the ridge is briefly shoved to the west. With the higher chances of rain, uncertainty in max temperatures is higher for the late week period, particularly across northern Oklahoma. As we move into early next week, it does appear the ridge starts to shift back east, bringing back a hot and dry pattern.

Day

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. A few mid to high clouds are possible across northern OK, otherwise expect mainly clear skies across the remainder of the area. South-southeast winds will veer to more southwesterly Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 101 77 100 / 10 10 0 10 Hobart OK 76 103 76 102 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 70 100 69 99 / 10 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 77 98 73 96 / 10 20 20 10 Durant OK 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ026-030>032- 042-043-047-048.

TX...None.