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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
- Severe thunderstorm risk through the weekend. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
- Hot & muggy conditions expected again Saturday, with heat indices near and above 100-108 degrees in the afternoon and evening. - Active pattern continues through the weekend, with additional chances for rain and storms. Locally heavy rain/flooding possible.
NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Could see a few lingering showers around sunrise across the eastern edge of our cwa. Otherwise, south winds will increase through the day and temperatures will once again climb into the well into the 90s with a few lower 100s across the north. This along with residual wet ground and higher dewpoints will result in afternoon heat indices across at least north central Oklahoma in excess of 105. Will go ahead with a Heat Advisory for that area for this afternoon into the early evening hours.
in addition, a fairly strong cold front will also slip southward toward the area today and is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma this afternoon and then by early evening be across northern Oklahoma. This front will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development late today and tonight. With modest amounts of instability and deep layer shear severe storms are likely to occur with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards along with cloud- to-ground lightning.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
This line of storms and cold front will work south across Oklahoma and into north Texas Saturday night. The overall severe risk should diminish as we go through the night, but a few strong to severe storms may remain possible.
Much cooler conditions are expected on Sunday in the wake of the front with highs mainly in the 70s with a few lower 80s along the Red River. A few strong to severe storms may redevelop across far southern Oklahoma southward into north Texas Sunday afternoon in proximity to the front. This severe risk should translate south Sunday evening, but rain chances continue across the southern half of the area overnight.
The front is expected to continue to move southward into central Texas by midday Monday and take any residual precip south as well. Most of Monday looks to remain dry after some morning showers near the Red River and cool. Again highs Monday afternoon in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows Monday morning will also be much cooler with lows dropping into the 50s and low/mid 60s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
After another cool morning Tuesday a quick warming trend is expected with highs once again in the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday and windy and hot by Wednesday with highs climbing above 100 degrees along and north of I-44. Probably a return of heat headlines by this time as well. Hopefully this extreme heat will be rather short-lived as models show another front and additional rain chances as we go toward the end of the week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are waning. South winds will become breezy this afternoon. Another storm complex is expected out of Kansas and the panhandles tonight. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible toward tomorrow morning.
Day
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 94 68 75 60 / 0 80 50 30 Hobart OK 96 66 77 60 / 0 70 60 30 Wichita Falls TX 95 71 82 63 / 10 30 50 40 Gage OK 100 61 74 56 / 50 80 50 10 Ponca City OK 95 66 76 59 / 40 80 20 0 Durant OK 92 76 83 66 / 10 60 70 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020.
TX...None.
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