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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Hot and dry conditions return this weekend and continue next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected most days this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Little to no significant impact expected from weather in the near- term. We are watching a couple of MCVs as they make a southbound trek from the central into the southern Plains. Robust convection erupted with the western MCV this morning in the TX panhandle, but that has remained to our west and is weakening. The eastern MCV has failed to produce any convection of significance, and with heights rising throughout the day, any attempts at CI will likely be of a transient/weak nature.

Fire weather is going to move back into the forefront of our minds as the weekend progresses, but today should be one more day with relatively benign fire conditions. Winds as of late morning are light and variable. They'll gradually shift toward southerly through the day as a surface low develops near the Badlands, but this won't promote the kind of downsloping that has led to elevated fire weather over the last 2-3 weeks. Temperatures will also subsequently remain in the 90s to near 100 across most of the area this afternoon.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Fire weather is the principal concern of the short-term period, though building heat will also be a concern. The current expectation is that we see elevated fire weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday with possible heat headlines Sunday afternoon.

The driver of the transition in hazard type is the subtropical ridge, which will shift/expand eastward on Saturday and end up directly overhead again by early Sunday morning. Expect temperatures to warm up by about 5 degrees tomorrow compared to today with winds shifting to the usual summertime south/southwesterly. Some guidance (particularly the NAM) shows a slightly stronger corridor of surface winds with gusts up to 25 mph possible in the afternoon in northwest Oklahoma. Elevated fire weather is expected from there southward into parts of western north Texas where minimum RH values will be a little lower.

By Sunday we will be back into the throes of a heatwave with the ridge overhead, south-southwest surface winds, and air temperatures breaching well above 100 across most of the area. Elevated fire weather is expected again - perhaps a touch less robust on the wind element, but more than made up for with increased surface heating and fuel drying. With air temperatures soaring, heat index/WBGTR forecasts also look like they'll breach Heat Advisory criteria across at least the southern half of the CWA. Just because we've seen this heat all summer long doesn't mean it can't still be impactful.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across the Southern Plains for the week ahead with only slight wobbles in its location forecast.

Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance (i.e., the National Blend of Models) indicates very little spread among the 10th and 90th percentile temperature forecast, which indicates high confidence for above-normal temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F.

This synoptic-scale pattern will also be unfavorable for rainfall with drought conditions continuing to worsen across Oklahoma and north Texas. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are likely most days with the hot and dry conditions that are combined with very dry fuels. The total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires to low-end large fires.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Light winds (mainly southerly, but somewhat variable) will continue until morning, with northwest Oklahoma starting to become breezy late tomorrow morning. Skies will remain mostly clear.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 72 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 70 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 70 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.