textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Remaining unseasonably hot through Tuesday, with cooler/more "fall-like" temperatures later in the week and weekend.

- An active weather pattern arrives on Tuesday and continues through at least Thursday. Potential for strong-severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding exists.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

In all likelihood, it will be a dry evening and overnight period across our area. Storms are still possible in the TX panhandle within a moistening/destabilizing environment late today. With that said, the entire suite of 12Z guidance keeps any convection west of northwest Oklahoma, and thus no mentionable rain chances were included (we estimate the chance of any rain making it into the area between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20).

Lows tonight will be remarkably warm for mid-October. We expect low temperatures in October to be in the low 50s, not the low 70s like they will be. This is a consequence of the enhanced tropical moisture fetch. A surge of 70+ dewpoints will occur into our area tonight as far north as Ponca City.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The potential for impactful weather increases quite a bit in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Record heat, severe weather, and flooding are all within the range of probable outcomes.

The period will begin with a deep, humid airmass in place across the Southern Plains. Short-range guidance shows PWATs ranging from 1.4 to 2.1 inches across our CWA from northwest to southeast at daybreak. It stands to reason that the depth of the humid layer will make diurnal mixing inefficient and reduce high temperatures a couple of degrees from what higher-end model guidance suggests. Even with that, 500 mb heights at 5,900 meters just downstream of the approaching trough as well as gusty south-southwest surface winds will bring potential record-breaking heat to our area. Highs will get into the upper 80s area-wide with the warmest spots (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas) easily reaching into the mid-90s.

The trough's approach late Tuesday will transition our concerns from heat to precipitation. Convection initiation is expected in two regimes:

1) Along a semi-stationary frontal boundary in southern Kansas, though a small error in frontal location could put this storm zone into northern Oklahoma.

2) Along the dryline, which will be located over the Caprock Escarpment.

Shear profiles late tomorrow afternoon will favor updraft organization into supercells with about 50 knots of effective bulk shear. Given how humid the hail growth zone will be, those supercells aren't likely to produce very large hail (the strongest updrafts will still be capable of producing hail to the size of ping pong balls) and may show more warm-rain processes. The natural tendency would then be to assume HP supercells and bowing line segments, which convective-allowing guidance agrees with. The damaging wind threat will be tempered somewhat by the humidity of the boundary layer (lower DCAPE values than we've seen most of the summer/fall), while the tornado threat will be tempered somewhat by the tendency of storms to grow upscale, warm 850 mb temperatures, and somewhat weak low-level shear. All in all, it's not a particularly favorable environment for any one severe risk. With that said, the near-certainty of storms, the moderate instability presence, and the sufficient bulk shear will make it likely that we do see severe storms in the evening.

The initial wave of storms will move eastward during the evening, though there is a pretty strong indication on 12Z CAM suites that it will weaken. Redevelopment of convection will occur either late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as that front sinks southward out of Kansas and a mild LLJ kicks up near the 100th meridian. This next wave of storms will likely carry a lower severe risk due to its anafrontal nature. With that said, the ingredients are coming into place on Wednesday for a southwest-to-northeast corridor somewhere to receive repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain on the order of 2-5 inches. It's not clear yet exactly where this axis will set up. NAM/RRFS guidance would suggest west central to north central Oklahoma, but we often see that model guidance isn't progressive enough in moving the initiating front southward, and QPF forecasts at this range have a too-far-northwest bias. If a southeastward shift occurs here, the I- 44 corridor and Lawton/Oklahoma City/Stillwater corridors will be at an elevated risk for flooding on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Without that southeastward shift, we will be watching the Weatherford/Enid/Ponca City region.

Thanks to the widespread cloud cover, rain, and frontal boundary, high temperatures will be much lower Wednesday roughly from I-44 northwestward. Another hot day is in store south of the boundary.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The passage of a rather notable fall front is beginning to focus on Thursday, as the midweek system begins to accelerate to the northeast across the Plains. Rain and embedded thunder/lightning potential may continue through much of the day on Thursday, slowly abating from north-to-south after nightfall. It is likely that our current forecast highs on Thursday continue to tumble (esp. across the northern one-half of Oklahoma) as a more refined frontal timing, and degree of post-frontal rain and clouds, comes into clearer view.

Things turn drier and begin to feel more "classically fall" by Friday into the weekend, with daytime temperatures in the 60s becoming more probable.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Mainly clear skies are expected to prevail along with occasionally gusty south winds through the remainder of the afternoon, with wind speeds decreasing this evening. Clouds will be on the increase from south to north late tonight into Tuesday morning, but ceilings should remain VFR except at KDUA where MVFR ceilings are possible. Wind gusts will increase once again by mid morning Tuesday, mainly from the south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 92 73 82 / 0 0 40 100 Hobart OK 73 93 71 81 / 0 20 60 100 Wichita Falls TX 74 93 74 88 / 0 0 30 70 Gage OK 71 90 66 76 / 0 30 60 90 Ponca City OK 72 93 70 78 / 0 0 70 100 Durant OK 74 88 75 89 / 0 10 10 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.