textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Excessive heat continues early this week, with "less hot" conditions towards the midweek.

- Strong to severe storms are possible early this morning across north-central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across portions of western, central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Monday afternoon into early evening.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A corridor of scattered rain and storm activity is beginning to rapidly take shape across portions of north-central and central Oklahoma early this morning, coincident with a strengthening/translating low-level jet and warm advection regime. A few storms here may pose a risk for strong-damaging wind gusts and hail over the coming hours before activity begins to shift eastward into Green Country and the western Ozarks towards daybreak.

A surface low and attendant cold front will move slowly southeastward across northern portions of the forecast area during the first half of Monday. Airmass modification associated with the early morning round of showers and storms (i.e., outflows, remnant clouds, etc.) will likely have a strong control on sensible conditions by the afternoon, especially the further east you go in Oklahoma. Hottest conditions on Monday are expected just south of the front in areas least affected by aforementioned factors. For now, this looks to be the area south of I-40 and along/west of I-35. Here, high temperatures climbing to near 112-115F is not off the table (~20-30% chance of occurrence). A daily high temperature of 115F has only been achieved three times (since 1923) at Wichita Falls and once (since 1912) at Lawton. Elsewhere, despite potential for a more sluggish start to warming, hot and humid conditions are expected by the late afternoon (ambient highs 95-100F; heat indices as high as 105F). A Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning continue from 12 PM to 8 PM Monday, and have been expanded east-north to account for an increasing warm signal in latest guidance.

Similar to temperatures, the nature of an afternoon into evening storm risk across the area will be heavily influenced by what occurs from sunrise through lunchtime. For now, we will continue to carry very low (~20%) mention of isolated thunderstorm activity near the expected frontal zone (i.e., generally along the I-40 corridor and southward) from the late afternoon into mid-evening. Given a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer, with strong downdraft potential energy, damaging winds will be the primary hazard should a few stronger thunderstorm cores emerge during this time.

While the persistent hot and dry weather and worsening/expanding drought is leading to many days of elevated fire weather conditions across Oklahoma and western-north Texas, the addition of a front may offer a locally focused corridor of more concerning potential later this afternoon and evening. Along with pre-frontal "torching", a local minima in afternoon humidity (as low as ~13-15%) and maxima in southwesterly wind gusts (~20-25 mph) may offer brief periods of near-critical fire weather conditions. While a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement seems most appropriate for now - given uncertainties discussed above - a targeted Red Flag Warning may become warranted if this higher threat corridor emerges in the nowcast space. As the front begins to ooze southward closer to sunset, a west-to- north wind shift will also need to be closely monitored should any fires become established across the landscape across central Oklahoma.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The cold front introduced on Monday will likely continue to impact sensible weather across the region into the midweek. A notable north- to-south temperature gradient is likely across the forecast area on Tuesday, with "coolest" (upper-90s) highs across northern Oklahoma. If the frontal zone can remain mostly intact (i.e., not get "washed out"), then another corridor of very hot weather (high temperatures and heat indices >105F) is likely across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas.

An active period of thunderstorm activity is forecast on Tuesday evening across the Southern High Plains, with a semi-organized thunderstorm complex likely taking shape during the evening here. As activity moves eastward, the potential for at least sporadic strong-severe wind gusts appears possible across western Oklahoma into early Wednesday morning.

Things continue to take a cooler turn into Wednesday for most areas north of the Red River, as a weak surface high slides southward across the combined panhandles. Upper-90s to low-100s highs are expected, with potential for >105F afternoon heat indices continuing along and south of the Red River. The storm potential on Wednesday near the front is a bit murky/low, though some short-term guidance does advertise chances across southern Oklahoma into western-north Texas, as another embedded perturbation rounds the periphery of the upper ridge.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

It still appears as though the high-amplitude/strong upper high will subtly retrograde into the middle of the week, putting a check on temperatures and keeping the door open for at least low precipitation chances.

Thursday looks to be another "cooler" (yet still above average) day on the temperature front, with upper-90s to near-100F highs across Oklahoma and western-north Texas. The current forecast would advertise the lowest/least areal coverage of heat headlines this day, though will be dependent on how surface features (namely a front) evolves on Wednesday. It does currently appear that we begin to warm more notably into next weekend, as advection of warmer airmasses re-establishes.

While no period stands out amongst the rest in terms of rain and storm chances, our position relative to the aforementioned high will allow for at least episodic (low) chances from Thursday evening into the weekend (especially across northern and western Oklahoma).

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The morning rain has moved east of the TAF sites this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the day and overnight. A surface low will traverse east across the area today as associated front remains near the I-40 corridor. There is a chance for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and south of this boundary and have introduced this possibility at CSM/LAW where the highest probabilities exist. Southwest to west winds are expected to the south of the front with north to northeast winds to the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 107 75 100 73 / 20 20 10 10 Hobart OK 111 75 104 73 / 20 20 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 111 81 106 76 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 100 70 97 66 / 0 10 10 60 Ponca City OK 96 72 98 71 / 10 0 10 20 Durant OK 107 79 106 77 / 20 20 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ016>019-021-022-026-030>032-042-043-048.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>025-027>029-033>041-044>047-050>052.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.