textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- There are risks for severe thunderstorm across parts of our area through Tuesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of western Oklahoma into western north Texas on Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- Very warm temperatures are expected through Monday with a cooler weather by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue today with the Southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a low-level thermal ridge. A tight surface pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds with wind gusts between 30 to 45 mph across most locations. The exception will be southeast/east central Oklahoma, where wind gusts will be a littler lower at 20 to 30 mph.

By this afternoon, the dryline is forecast to sharpen near the Oklahoma/Texas state line (100th meridian). As a 50-knot mid-level jet streak lifts into southwest Kansas, a surface low will accelerate to the northeast with a dryline bulge developing across southwest Kansas. Northwest Oklahoma will be on the southern periphery of the dryline bulge.

Given these mesoscale features, the chance for convection initiation (CI) along the dryline is a little higher today as the stronger mid-level flow and attendant synoptic-scale ascent approaches from the west. The most likely area for CI is across northwest into west central Oklahoma (20 to 30% for a given location), which will be closer to the strongest synopic-scale ascent. However, with a warm elevated mixed layer aloft (e.g., 12 deg C at 700 mb), thunderstorms are not guaranteed to develop along the dryline in Oklahoma. If thunderstorms develop, supercells are possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail with a low tornado risk. Any storms would generally move to the east across northern Oklahoma.

Hot temperatures, gusty southerly winds, and low humidity will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions in close proximity to the dryline in northwest Oklahoma. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this area. Within the Red Flag Warning, there will likely be a big difference in conditions from northwest Harper County to southeast Woodward County this afternoon. With northwest Oklahoma on the southern periphery of the dryline bulge, this increases the chance for western/northwestern Harper County to be behind the dryline. Humidity values behind the dryline will be near 10%, which would result in critical fire weather conditions. To the east/southeast of this, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected.

Across southeast Oklahoma, a weak wave may result in a few showers and thunderstorms within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air advection.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A trough with an 80-knot mid-level jet streak will lift into the Central Plains on Monday afternoon with a highly unstable air mass forecast to the east of the dryline. With stronger forcing to the north, storm coverage remains uncertain even with the unstable air mass in place. Initially, the highest chance of storms and severe weather will be across northwestern into north central Oklahoma, which will be in closer proximity to the wave. The coverage of thunderstorms along the dryline in Oklahoma and western north Texas remains uncertain with southern extent (i.e., the chance of development decreases farther south along the dryline). Instability and vertical wind shear will be favorable for supercells with the threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

By evening, the low-level jet will amplify with 50 to 60 knot winds. The strengthening low-level jet will markedly increase low- level wind shear, resulting in enlarged, clockwise-curved hodographs that will be favorable for tornadoes--including strong tornadoes. As a result, any ongoing supercells into the evening will have an increasing tornado potential. The location with the highest risk for this occurring would be near the Oklahoma/Kansas border across north central Oklahoma given that area has the (relatively) highest chance for thunderstorms. However, if any supercells are ongoing farther to the south, they will also be in a favorable environment for tornadoes.

West of the dryline, fire weather conditions will be a concern Monday afternoon. Currently, it appears the dryline will be near or just east of the 100th meridian. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible to the west of the dryline with gusty south-southwest winds and very low humidity.

Overnight, a cold front will move to the southeast across Kansas into northern Oklahoma. A line of thunderstorms may develop as the front advances from northwest to southeast early Tuesday morning. As a result, there will be a continued threat of severe weather through the overnight hours with the severe risk moving to the southeast with the front. Strong to severe thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon along the cold front as it advances to the southeast. However, if the front is progressive enough Tuesday morning, the risk of severe weather may be to our southeast by the afternoon. Cooler weather and northerly winds are expected in the front's wake Tuesday afternoon.

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 952 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR/MVFR ceilings with the MVFR ceilings moving in early Sunday. LLWS is expected at a few sites overnight into early Sunday. S to SE winds will remain breezy overnight but increase some again Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

MVFR conditions will continue to advance northward across central and north-central Oklahoma this morning with scattered showers possible over southeastern Oklahoma. There is a chance of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening near KWWR and KCSM with large hail and damaging wind gusts. LLWS is a concern for many locations tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 88 71 87 63 / 10 10 30 50 Hobart OK 93 70 94 62 / 10 20 30 30 Wichita Falls TX 91 71 92 68 / 10 10 30 10 Gage OK 96 67 96 49 / 20 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 91 72 90 60 / 10 20 30 80 Durant OK 88 75 89 73 / 20 20 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013-015-016- 022-035.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014.

TX...None.