textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday and Tuesday across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Hot and mostly dry with low rain/storm chances returning towards middle and end of the week across northern Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Pleasant temperatures are expected this morning as lows drop into the 60's across most of the area. However, temperatures will warm quickly into the 80's by mid-morning with the ceasing of low-level CAA. Skies will remain clear, and with the departure of the upper trough and return of the ridge, mid-level height rises will yield a 2 to 3 deg increase in temperatures from those observed on Saturday. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the 90's, with near 100 degrees along the Red River in southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. The airmass remains relatively dry and heat indices will not be an issue today.

Light N/NE winds will be seen over the eastern two-thirds of the area with winds veering to the southeast across the western counties as the ridge axis becomes better defined. By evening, winds will become more ESE-ly area-wide as the high exits the plains.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions (RH-driven) are expected across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday and Tuesday due to the return of above-normal temperatures, delayed moisture return, and drying fuels.

By Monday, a lee-side surface trough develops and surface winds return to the south which will yield increasing temperatures in the short term. High temperatures near and above 100 degrees are expected along and west of the I-35 corridor on Monday with triple-digit temperatures area-wide on Tuesday. Veered, downslope flow at H850 will lead to a relatively dry air mass with afternoon relative humidity as low as 15 to 20 percent across, western Oklahoma and western north Texas both days. The heat and low humidity will yield elevated fire weather conditions for these areas on both days.

There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday as a surface low tracks across southern Kansas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. However, any falling precipitation is expected to fall as virga with forecast soundings depicting high cloud bases and deep layer of dry air.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Model blends suggest the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over Kansas. However, a few deterministic models (NAM/GFS) indicate the front could sag into northwest Oklahoma late Tuesday and remain in the area for a few days. As a result, there is at least a low chance of showers/storms (15%) over northern Oklahoma on Wednesday through Thursday with chances in that vicinity rising to near 30% on Thursday evening.

Given the uncertainty in frontal placement and rain chances, temperature box plots for these locations widen beginning Wednesday. Still, heat is expected to persist for the majority of the area and humidity rises middle to end of next week as dewpoint temperatures rise into the 60's and low 70's. Heat headlines are possible for portions of the area Wednesday through Saturday.

Thompson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Weak and variable winds will shift to the southeast by Monday morning. Occasional gusts up to 20 mph will be possible at KWWR by the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 69 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 70 102 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 67 95 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 69 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.