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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Thursday across much of western and central OK and western north TX. - Cooler temperatures and improving fire conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with low chances for light precip (rain/snow) Friday night across northern OK.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 108 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Fire weather will be the primary concern once again today, with a very dry airmass in place and gusty southwest winds. See the Fire Weather section below for greater details. Winds will not be nearly as strong today compared to yesterday, but will increase during the afternoon as lee cyclogenesis occurs across CO and the surface pressure gradient tightens across the region. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible across northwest OK, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected across much of the rest of central/western OK and western north TX. Highs today will reach into the mid to upper 70s. Expect another night of rather poor RH recovery tonight, with much of the area along and north/west of the I-44 corridor seeing RH hovering in the 25-35% range for much of the night. Lows will range from the upper 30s northwest to the low 50s southeast.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 108 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winds will veer on Thursday as the center of surface low tracks to our north. West to northwest winds could gust to 30 to 40 mph at times across central and northern OK and combined with very dry air will lead to another day of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions (see Fire Weather section for more details). A cold front will enter the area from the north late in the day, bringing a shift to northerly winds and cooler temperatures behind it. Lows will fall into the 20s Thursday night across northern OK, with 30s elsewhere.

Highs on Friday behind the front will drop back closer to average, mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Models continue to show a shortwave trough approaching from the west later Friday, but its track and strength suggest that better precipitation chances/amounts will remain largely to our north. Still have 20-30% PoPs across north-central and eastern OK Friday night, along with potential for some snow to mix in as well, but no accumulation of snow is expected.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 108 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Any light precipitation will quickly exit the area Saturday morning, with dry conditions expected the remainder of the day. Cooler (near-average) temperatures will persist through Monday as a surface high to our north maintains northerly winds over the area. Temperatures will moderate back above average by Tuesday into the middle of next week as winds strengthen from the south once again. This could mean a return of elevated to near-critical fire conditions for at least parts of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

Light winds this morning will generally be westerly before becoming southwesterly by 18Z. These winds will become gusty by mid afternoon, especially across west central into northwest Oklahoma. Wind gusts should decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected toward the end of the TAF period.

Mahale

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winds speeds continue to decrease this evening as the Pacific front pushes east if I-35. Behind the front, a very dry air is in place with relative humidity only sitting at 20-30% in many spots.

For today, westerly winds this morning will become southwesterly by the afternoon as a surface low deepens across Colorado. Speeds will start off rather light this morning but will increase to 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph this afternoon across northwest OK as the pressure gradient tightens. This could prove problematic for ongoing fire- fighting efforts in these areas into the panhandles and southern KS as near-critical to critical fire conditions are realized. Elsewhere, winds will not be quite as strong but relative humidity values will still drop into the 10-15% range in many locations, leading to elevated to near critical fire weather as far east as central and north-central OK.

For Thursday, winds will veer through the day as the surface low tracks to our north, with a cold front eventually expected to move into the area in its wake later in the day. The timing of the front and the degree of cold advection during the afternoon will be crucial in determining the overall fire risk, especially for areas north of I-40. Also of note, many CAMs are showing a signal for a belt of extremely dry air oriented west to east across the TX panhandle into central/southern OK as the dry conveyor wraps around the backside of the system. The HRRR in particular is quite concerning with afternoon RH values dropping to 5-10% within this zone. The latest TTU WRF is similar but a bit further south with the belt of driest air, closer to the Red River. Given the HRRR performed the best with yesterday's fire weather in northwest OK (and its drier Thursday solution is supported by the latest TTU- WRF guidance), nudged dewpoints lower Thursday but did not go nearly as extreme as the raw model guidance for now. Winds on Thursday look to be stronger than today but not nearly as strong as yesterday. Gusts on Thursday could reach 30-40 mph from the west or northwest across much of central and northern OK, with slightly lower speeds to the south of there. Bottom line, near- critical to critical fire weather potential exists across a large portion of the area on Thursday, with uncertainty the highest across northern OK as a result of differences in frontal timing. The Fire Weather Watch Thursday was expanded another row of counties eastward and now includes the entire area with the exception of Atoka and Bryan counties.

Winds will become northerly behind the front Thursday night with much cooler temperatures filtering in as well. For Friday into the weekend, these cooler temperatures will lead to low fire weather conditions. There is also a chance for some light precipitation late Friday into Saturday, but amounts will be minimal.

Looking into the long range, warmer temperatures and strengthening southerly winds could bring a return of elevated to near-critical fire conditions by Tuesday to at least parts of the area.

Ware

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 52 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 73 47 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 51 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 40 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 46 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 57 74 40 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>019-021>025-027>029-033>038.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ004>047-050-051.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ083>090.