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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this morning across northwest Oklahoma with a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

More active day on tap Monday as severe weather is expected across the area. Lead sub-tropical wave responsible for showers and thunderstorms across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle early this morning will continue to shift east through the day today. The associated showers and thunderstorms will also propagate eastward and will move into western and northwestern Oklahoma over the next few hours. Anticipate this activity to gradually weaken as it approaches, however a few strong/severe winds gusts may remain possible early this morning.

Expect some of this activity to continue through the morning hours across western Oklahoma before possibly re-intensifing by midday into the early afternoon hours as they near the I-35 corridor.

As we move into the afternoon hours the main upper low will move through the panhandles into western Oklahoma. As this occurs, one surface low will lift from Nebraska into South Dakota with a trailing cold front to a second deepening surface low in southwest Kansas, aiding in increasing south winds. A dryline will then take shape and trail southward from this low along or just east of the 100th meridian by mid-afternoon.

As lift from the upper low overspreads the dryline additional convective development is expected along the dryline from southern Kansas southward across western Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Questions remain with regards to instability in the wake of the earlier showers and thunderstorms. However with potential breaks in the clouds, the advection of mid-upper 60 dewpoints and surface temperatures possible as warm as the low to middle 80s, models are showing MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/kg by late afternoon. This along with deep-layer shear of 50-60kts will be favorable initially for discrete supercells capable of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes as well as some large hail.

Low level winds will continue to strengthen during the day, however by this evening the low level jet backs and strengthens further as well as winds aloft. This will increase deep-layer shear(60-70kts) providing a favorable wind profile for a window of time where a strong tornado or two will be possible. This is expected to transition as we go into the late afternoon and evening into line(s) or line segments with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes/circulations the main hazards.

Storms will continue to grow upscale through the evening as they move east and northeast across the area. As this occurs some areas could receive some heavier rainfall, mainly along and east of I-35, before the storms push through southeast Oklahoma around sunrise Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As the system pulls away Tuesday a Pacific cold front will sweep southeast across the area bringing gusty northwest winds, cooler temperatures(still above seasonal norms), and a drier airmass. Main impact will be with the drier airmass as overnight lows will drop into the 40s across much of the area by Wednesday morning. More of a west to northwest flow develops Wednesday with more sunshine and lighter winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Another shortwave drops southeast out of the central Rockies into the Southern Plains on Thursday. This wave could provide another quick shot of rainfall across portions of central and northern Oklahoma. A few storms appear possible, but no severe weather is anticipated.

Temperatures through the latter part of the week and into the weekend should remain rather consistent in the upper 60s and low/middle 70s. Models do show another large upper low dropping south through the northern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, but any precip associated with this wave currently appears to remain to our north and east. It will also bring another front through the area Saturday and Saturday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A line of thunderstorms is currently making its way across the panhandles, on track to affect western Oklahoma between about 09z and 13z. These storms will likely be decaying by the time they reach our western TAF sites, but could still be capable of strong gusty winds.

Additional storms are expected Monday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances being near the I-35 corridor around 22z to 03z. Severe storms will be possible including strong, erratic winds.

Outside of convection, MVFR ceilings will persist into the morning hours across western Oklahoma. There's also a low to medium chance for patchy MVFR ceilings to develop across the parts of northern and central OK, and western north TX Monday morning.

Southerly to south southeasterly winds will pick up overnight and stay gusty well into the day Monday, especially across western Oklahoma.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 54 68 48 / 60 90 0 0 Hobart OK 81 54 70 46 / 70 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 83 55 72 48 / 50 70 0 0 Gage OK 80 49 65 42 / 30 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 78 55 68 46 / 70 90 10 0 Durant OK 86 60 74 50 / 0 90 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.