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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal temperatures for much of this week.

- Low chances for light rain in SE late tonight and early Tuesday.

- Low chances for light precipitation (rain/freezing rain/snow) late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The thaw continues today with temperatures expected to climb into the mid 50s to upper 60s this afternoon. These temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average for earl February. The coolest spots will continue to be those areas with a decent amount of snow still on the ground. Temperatures tonight will continue to be warmer compared to last night across much of the area with lows ranging from the upper 20s in NW OK to the low 40s in SE parts of the fa.

Models show a shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains tonight into Tuesday. At the sfc, an associated cold front is expected to begin to move into NW OK later today, probably around sunset, and continue to move across the area tonight into early Tuesday. Moisture will also continue to be on the increase with 40s dewpoints expected to move into parts of the fa later today/tonight. It will be somewhat dependent on the amount of moisture return along with timing of the front, but a few light rain showers could affect far SE portions of the fa later tonight into early Tuesday. The rain chances are low in SE parts of the fa with better chances expected to be SE of the area where better moisture return is expected to occur.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The previously mentioned frontal boundary is expected to be in SE parts of the fa early Tuesday and will then move out of the area Tuesday morning. There may also be some lingering showers Tuesday morning. The airmass behind the front is not particularly cold with high temperatures on Tuesday expected to be 5 to maybe 10 degrees cooler than today which would still be slightly above normal at many locations.

Models show another shortwave moving across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with some light precipitation developing and moving across the area. Operational models have increased the QPF signal a little over the last couple of runs and ensembles are showing a low chance for some precipitation to occur, especially in parts of northern and central OK. With that NBM has initialized with 20-30% PoPs starting late Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday morning.

Sfc temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area early Wednesday before warming into the mid/upper 40s and 50s by Wednesday afternoon. With temperatures right around freezing in some areas during some of the precipitation window, light freezing rain or light snow will be possible, especially in north central OK with just a cold rain elsewhere. The precipitation is expected to transition to a cold rain Wednesday morning as temperatures begin to warm. There is some uncertainty with the precipitation type especially with temperatures expected to be hovering right around the freezing mark. If temperatures are not as cold as forecast then the precip will likely fall as a cold rain or if temperatures cool at sfc and just above quicker then will likely fall as light snow with very little/no freezing rain. Precipitation amounts are expected to be light with most locations that receive precip seeing just a few hundredths of an inch. No major impacts are expected from the light freezing rain and/or snow.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 111 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Warm temperatures are expected late week and into the weekend as an upper-level ridge builds over the south central and western United States. Highs are expected to be in the 60s areawide on Thursday, with some western and southern areas reaching into the 70s on Friday and into this weekend. The weather pattern will also keep precipitation out of the area through at least Saturday.

By Sunday there is some more uncertainty in the forecast as the new operational ECMWF brings a cut-off low into Texas on Sunday and brings at least some potential for precipitation. Most models and model ensemble members keep this low farther west, so will keep the forecast warm and dry for now.

Elevated fire weather conditions may develop Thursday afternoon across portions of northwest and west central Oklahoma, driven mainly by forecast low humidity. Otherwise the forecasts of wind and humidity keep fire weather potential in check this week despite the warm weather.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the TAF period. Southwest winds will become southerly this evening before shifting to the north behind a cold front that will cross the area tonight. Could see a period of LLWS and low stratus for a short time at KDUA ahead of the front, with reductions to IFR/LIFR possible for a time before improving later in the morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 35 57 32 50 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 34 60 32 53 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 39 63 34 56 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 29 59 30 52 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 30 52 29 47 / 0 0 20 30 Durant OK 44 62 33 53 / 20 10 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.