textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot and dry conditions to continue.

- Fire weather will continue to be a concern with the ongoing drought and dry fuels.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

While today will be a degree or two cooler than prior days, we'll still be upwards of 10-15 degrees above normal (upper-90s to mid-100s deg F) for the last day of August. A relatively drier airmass will also help keep heat indices below the 105 deg F threshold for a Heat Advisory across most areas this afternoon.

A south-southwesterly surface wind will be less gusty through sunset compared to yesterday/Sunday, as the gradient in surface pressure relaxes. However, as mentioned for the last several updates, given how critically dry fire fuels are across the region, even more muted combinations of fire weather factors (RH ~20% & wind gusts <25 mph) deserve utmost attention until our next wetting rainfall event occurs. While our primary focus this afternoon and early evening is across northwestern Oklahoma, where a Rangeland Fire Danger (RFD) Statement runs from 2 PM to 7 PM, everyone should continue to exercise fire prevention practices.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

While the subtropical ridge will continue to migrate eastward into the midweek, warm low-level airmasses will promote continued upper- 90s to low-100s high temperatures on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A more moist airmass will continue to migrate northward, especially by Wednesday. This will contribute to more widespread >105 deg F heat indices, especially across eastern portions of the area. Several small/brief rain cores may emerge across southeastern Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon, though any rainfall amounts will be very light to nil.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue, most especially across portions of western Oklahoma where lowest afternoon humidity is forecast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, currently off the coast of southern Louisiana, is progged to continue modest strengthening while approaching the Texas/Louisiana coastal border over the coming 18-24 hours. A strong consensus of guidance shows this feature drifting northwestward and weakening into the midweek, though some potential for clouds and perhaps scattered precipitation exists across the eastern Red River Valley by Wednesday evening. Ungar

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

As noted in the short term section above, the remnants of the tropical disturbance will be feature that could bring a chance of showers/storms across parts of the area with some deterministic models and ensemble members keeping a remnant vorticity maxima/weakness in the area through Friday. However, it is important to note that other ensemble members completely dissipate the system before it reaches Oklahoma or western north Texas.

Otherwise, hot weather will likely continue into next weekend with deterministic and ensemble NWP in agreement the subtropical ridge will continue to influence our weather. As a matter of fact, there are indications the subtropical ridge may further amplify/strengthen across the Plains by the upcoming weekend.

The probabilistic National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast does not have any significant spread among the 10th and 90th percentile temperature forecast with even the 10th percentile several degrees above-normal through the Labor Day weekend. As a result, there is a high confidence of generally above-normal temperatures outside of any potential tropical influence. Note that given the lower sun angle and shorter days, our normal temperatures have been quickly decreasing over the last couple weeks. For example, Oklahoma City is down to 89 deg F and Wichita Falls is down to 93 deg F today. Therefore, even a slight cool down would still result in above-normal temperatures.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail with gusty S/SW winds diminishing and backing after sunset. Scattered mid-level cumulus is expected for some areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 102 74 99 / 0 10 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.