textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Higher rain chances return to western areas early next week, with chances more uncertain farther east.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Quiet weather today. The upper ridge has built from central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will continue to be above average underneath this ridge. At the surface, the area of high pressure is in the Midwest with the surface ridge down to near the Texas Gulf Coast. Being northwest of this ridge, southerly winds are expected. Winds have been offshore at the Texas Gulf Coast so we have no return of Gulf moisture to the area yet.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Latest models are showing the upper ridge only shifting east slowly as the broad trough in the west cuts off into a closed low over the northern Sonoran Desert Saturday. After closing off, the low itself will likely be slow to move eastward initially before the models show it opening back up into a trough on Sunday. Areas of precipitation will develop over the southern and central High Plains this weekend downstream of the low/trough, but with the slow movement of both the upper trough to the west and the upper ridge to the east, the strongest precipitation signal remains west of the forecast area until perhaps late Sunday, and even then will be confined to the far western portions of the area through Sunday night.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

As the low in the western United States opens up and fills early next week, the model consensus is now for the trough to deamplify quickly and move northeast from Colorado and northern New Mexico up toward the Upper Mississippi Valley as the ridge remains relatively strong over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This trajectory of the trough takes much of the precipitation northeast with it. The highest precipitation potential remains in northwestern Oklahoma early Monday, and although there still is some precipitation potential farther east as the tail end of the weakening trough moves through the Central Plains, precipitation chances do decrease getting farther east. Will continue to watch trends in the models.

Late in the week, there are significant differences in how the weather pattern evolve with the operational 00Z GFS and ECMWF almost completely out of phase with each other in the western U.S. The GFS shows a 550 dm 500 mb low over Nevada with a broad trough down toward the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts Thursday evening, while the ECMWF shows ridging from the Guadalupe Mountains of southwest Texas up toward Nevada. With that, the GFS shows widespread precipitation potential across the area Thursday and Friday while the ECMWF shows little precipitation. Some of this is still just beyond the timeline of this forecast so we will have the chance to see if models begin aligning themselves more. NBM does have precipitation chances Wednesday Night into Thursday, which seems reasonable enough to have some potential with the differences in the model solutions, but this forecast will certainly evolve.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through today and tonight with occasional high clouds streaming across the area. Winds will be from the south/southeast, becoming a bit gustier by late morning through the afternoon, especially across western OK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 79 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 80 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 82 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 80 57 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 80 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 83 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.