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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 - A brief period of elevated fire weather (far western Oklahoma) and potential for a few severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- A continued risk for severe weather on Wednesday-Saturday across portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

More impactful weather returns to the area today, with potential for a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions (northwestern Oklahoma) and a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

In the interim, we are monitoring potential for fog development across portions of western and northern Oklahoma, generally after 3 AM. While this may feature localized visibilities as low as 1/4-mile, a modest southeasterly surface wind/turbulent low-level mixing and continued scattered cirrus increase uncertainty in the spatiotemporal coverage of this risk. Still, a short-fuse/targeted Dense Fog Advisory cannot be ruled out this morning and any fog should dissipate prior to 9 AM.

An elongated Four Corners shortwave trough will meander eastward through the day, while a surface front sharpens and pushes southward across the forecast area. Like this past Sunday, there is a strong possibility that the front progresses a decent bit faster than currently captured in model guidance, especially in noting low to mid-30s temperatures and developing stratus across southwestern Kansas. Accordingly, a much cooler day is now expected across portions of northwestern Oklahoma, with a possibility that temperatures do not warm out of the 50s across Harper/Ellis/Woodward Counties. A notable low-level thermal ridge and weak compressional warming near the frontal interface look to still offer up a very warm day generally south/east of the I-44/I-35 corridors, with potential for near-90 degree temperatures across western-north Texas.

A short window of opportunity for elevated fire weather conditions will exist across portions of Ellis, Roger Mills and Beckham Counties early this afternoon (~12-4 PM), as a wedge of much lower dewpoints/humidity overlap with breezy southwesterly winds. The progressive nature of the front should limit the duration of this threat, though if a wildland fire does become established, a sharp southwest-to-north/northwest wind shift will need to be closely monitored.

While much of the day will be dry across the region, at least widely scattered (high-based) showers and thunderstorms are possible across western into central Oklahoma during the mid-evening. While we do not expect much in the way of either rainfall accumulation or storm impacts with this activity, locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out given a well-mixed boundary layer beneath a high cloud base. A better chance for showers and storms, including some risk for severe weather, will arrive during the nighttime hours (see SHORT TERM discussion below for more details).

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

TUESDAY NIGHT: An increasingly strong isentropic/warm air advection regime is anticipated to develop into the initial hours of Wednesday morning across the area. This is expected to yield increasing coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the northern one-half of Oklahoma. While most of this activity will occur behind the surface boundary, a few severe/hail-producing thunderstorms will be possible owing to an overlap of strong deep- layer wind fields and modest elevated instability (Ensemble mean ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE). The risk for severe weather will focus mainly north of Interstate 40 through the overnight.

WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Chances for scattered rain and storms, along with a localized severe weather risk, will continue on Wednesday (primarily near and east of Interstate 44). Current projections have the surface front slowing/stalling across the far southeast extent of the forecast area into Wednesday afternoon. As a modestly strong isentropic regime continues throughout the day, we are likely to see at least limited coverage of rain and thunder from south-central into east-central Oklahoma.

While a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms will remain possible east of the Interstate 44 corridor during the afternoon and evening, the dominant hazard is likely to be hail provided primarily anafrontal convection, and with a modest plume of instability/sufficient wind shear remaining in place.

While the risk for rain/storms/severe weather looks spatially confined on Wednesday, most folks will experience another cool and cloudy day behind the front, with potential for daytime high temperatures in the upper-40s in spots. The gridded forecast was adjusted down several degrees compared to previous updates.

As the surface front begins to "wash out" and lift northward ahead of our next weather system, coverage of showers and thunderstorms may accordingly spread further north into central Oklahoma during the predawn hours on Thursday. A few (brief) hail-producing thunderstorms cannot be ruled out prior to daybreak in areas south of I-40/east of I-35.

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: A period with more concentrated severe weather risk arrives late in the day on Thursday. After scattered morning showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exit into eastern Oklahoma, much of the remainder of your Thursday should be mostly dry with warm (70s) temperatures.

A potent upper storm system will begin to emerge across the Intermountain West throughout the day into night. Our previous surface front will be making its northward return throughout the day, as significant lee cyclogenesis occurs to our west/north.

There is near ubiquitous signal for a leading upper impulse to intercept an increasingly unstable airmass across the Texas Panhandle/Rolling Plains into far western Oklahoma towards sunset. The parameterized mesoscale environment would strongly support organized/supercell storm modes, with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail as activity spreads into western Oklahoma and perhaps western-north Texas on Thursday night. Tornadic concern cannot be discounted as well with this activity, as potential exists for moisture/theta-e flux to counteract nocturnal stabilization (at least for a time shortly after sunset). This will be a period of severe weather to keep close tabs on for interests in the western portions of Oklahoma and north Texas.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

FRIDAY: As the axis of the aforementioned upper trough continues to slowly approach the area, chances for thunderstorms and severe weather will continue on Friday, mainly from the late afternoon through night. An extensive dryline, stretching from the Central Plains southward into central Texas will slowly mix eastward into west-central Oklahoma through the day as a primary upper impulse lifts across the central Rockies.

While at least scattered convective coverage is currently forecast to emanate off the dryline, recent progs of the upper systems progression (yielding neutral or slightly rising height tendency), and potential for a stronger-than-modeled elevated mixed layer, raise uncertainty regarding just how many storms we will see on Friday. Regardless, the expected environment would appear capable of organized storms/supercells posing a risk for hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Perhaps the most unfortunate trend in the forecast is the run-over- run decrease in rainfall totals with each round of precipitation leading up to and on Friday. There is now a real chance that many locations along and west of the I-44 corridor miss out on significant (>0.75-1") rainfall accumulations.

SATURDAY & NEXT WEEK: A more chaotic upper pattern introduces a significant amount of uncertainty once we move into the upcoming weekend and beyond. At least some potential for lingering showers and thunderstorms remains on Saturday across the Red River Valley. Pending details on frontal position/quality of the associated warm sector, a few severe thunderstorms may also be possible here during the afternoon and evening.

Our current gridded forecast and ensemble model guidance supports the idea of a mainly dry and warmer period on Sunday into next week, with potential for another dynamic upper system towards the midweek period.

Ungar

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Stratus is redeveloping across central and north central Oklahoma and some areas of MVFR ceilings may develop through the morning hours. There is the potential of fog across northwest and west central Oklahoma (including KWWR and KCSM) as sunrise approaches.

Strong south/southwest winds above the surface will keep non- convective low-level wind shear across much of the area overnight.

Surface winds will become gusty Tuesday morning before a cold front moves through and shifts winds to northerly. Some widely scattered showers will start developing after sunset Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 50 56 50 / 20 40 50 50 Hobart OK 82 47 62 47 / 20 30 30 40 Wichita Falls TX 87 58 63 55 / 20 30 50 70 Gage OK 64 40 64 41 / 0 60 30 10 Ponca City OK 73 47 58 44 / 20 60 60 30 Durant OK 78 64 72 59 / 0 30 60 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.