textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in central through southeast Oklahoma. Heavy localized rainfall and strong gusty winds will be possible

- Rain/storm chances will be mainly across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas on Thursday and Friday. - Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the end of the week before triple digit heat returns Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Radar showing fairly widespread rain showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma approaching our eastern CWA. We also had an isolated storm over the OKC Metro producing 40-50 mph gusts with heavy rainfall over the south Metro currently moving into the Moore area.

Weak troughing within our upper ridging will continue digging westward across eastern Oklahoma into our forecast area and combined with afternoon heating and a weak to no inversion capping beneath in the boundary layer will increase chances for isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon into the early evening hours. Most of this convective activity should be in central through southeast Oklahoma generally near and east of I-35. Much of this convective activity is diurnally driven and expected to diminish after sundown with some high cloud cover persisting overnight. With up to low-end moderate instability and weak shear due to weak flow at all levels not expecting any storm cells to be severe or organize other than producing brief but localized heavy rainfall. DCAPE values suggest dissipating cells could produce gusty winds in the downdrafts but below severe. Seasonably hot today but not excessive with afternoon heat indices in the lower to mid 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper jet flow will persist across way up in the U.S. Pacific Northwest through Canada and into the New England states with weak ridging over the rest of the country. Weak surface flow/winds will also persist across our area. However a surface high building across gulf region may slightly increase south winds by Friday along with a weak low-level jet returning Friday night. A cut-off low in the weak upper ridge stalled over western through south-central Texas will be increasing rain/storm chances for our area on Thursday and Friday into western north Texas through southern Oklahoma. Weak flow aloft and up to low-end moderate instability should keep any convection below severe although Thursday afternoon could see stronger wind gusts with this activity. Not much change with our temperatures through the end of the week until the long term period.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show the upper high building across the western U.S. possibly into the Southern Plains over the weekend into early next week with NW flow possibly setting up over the Northern/Central Plains next week. At the sfc, south to southwesterly winds are expected over the weekend. Models are now showing the potential for a frontal boundary to move into at least parts of the fa early to middle of next week.

With the upper ridge potentially influencing the area and south to southwesterly flow at the sfc, temperatures are expected to warm over the weekend into early next week with a return to above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and low 100s. However, temperatures may be knocked down a few degrees next week if the previously mentioned frontal boundary moves into the area.

A drier forecast is also expected over the weekend into early next week with the upper ridge providing less of an opportunity for storm development. One chance for some more rain may also be with the frontal boundary next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions across pretty much the whole CWA despite cloud bases in the 3,000-4,000 foot range. Those will slowly rise this afternoon, except for areas where showers and thunderstorms develop. Skies will clear tonight before another round of cumulus develops by mid-morning tomorrow. Winds remain rather light.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 70 90 71 / 30 20 10 10 Hobart OK 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 92 69 91 70 / 10 10 30 20 Gage OK 91 67 92 68 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 89 71 90 73 / 30 10 10 0 Durant OK 90 72 90 73 / 30 20 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.