textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather northwest of I-44 today.

- Severe weather potential returns Tuesday.

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma mid to late week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fire weather will again be the main concern today.

A well defined low level thermal ridge is forecast to extend over western Oklahoma, reaching to central Oklahoma. With clear skies and moderate near-westerly 850mb flow, downslope and mixing will bring low RH values (low to mid teens, with some single digits) to a broad portion of our forecast area including western, northern, and central OK as well as western north TX. As with Sunday, RH recovery will be delayed with minimum RH values occurring around 5 or 6pm. Additionally, we will have breezy winds of 15 to 20 mph down the center of this LLTR axis (roughly from southwest Oklahoma up through central Oklahoma) through the day.

Yesterday's verification showed that a mix of 50-70% HRRR with NBM over all but south central Oklahoma gave a reasonable RH forecast. With a similar mesoscale setup today, we went for a similar strategy.

Today appears to be a high-end RFD day. There are a few mitigating factors that suggest staying below Red Flag Warning at this time. For most of the area, RH recovery tonight is excellent (and will be again tomorrow night). FEMS ERC Y is showing values in the 50th to 69th percentile range. The exception to this excellent recovery is northwest Oklahoma, but that area will see lighter winds limiting the RFTIs in that region.

Outside of fire weather, an upper wave may result in a few light showers over southeast Oklahoma, though chances are low. Temperatures will once again sore into the 80s (pushing 90 degrees in southwest OK and western north TX) under the influence of sunny skies and southwest surface flow.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

As more details come into clearer focus for Tuesday's potential severe storm event, questions increase.

The day will begin with WAA producing scattered showers and storms over south central Oklahoma. These precipitation chances will start low in the morning, then increase during the afternoon with daytime heating. This activity is expected to be primarily elevated with modest instability and shear. Afternoon / early evening storms will have some risk of becoming strong to severe.

The next round is anticipated to ignite off the dryline late in the afternoon / evening across parts of the Texas panhandle down into west central Texas. This activity looks to focus across southern Oklahoma and north Texas as it moves east with support from an upper low traversing east toward central Texas. Deep layer shear is still expected to be moderately strong and a decent low level jet will be in place, but CAMs are suggesting that instability is quickly scoured ahead of these storms. Initial storms will have the greatest severe potential with uncertainty due to a questionable environment and potential upscale growth increasing thereafter.

Finally, a front will surge south through the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Additional showers and storms may develop along this front, though severe potential will be lower with the loss of instability. Once the front is through, we'll be left with a cooler, dry airmass.

Southeast Oklahoma has the best chance of receiving meaningful rainfall. Amounts northwest of I-44 look to remain light on QPF. Southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will have the greatest range of possibilities depending on how the dryline convection comes together.

Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be windy. Tuesday's winds will be southerly at 15 to 25 mph. Post-frontal northerly winds on Wednesday will be quite gusty with sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 45 mph possible. A wind advisory will likely be needed. Additionally, these winds will trigger a broad area of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday.

Day

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Late week will be dry with daily occurrences of elevated fire weather expected across our western counties. Temperatures will gradually rebound after Wednesday's frontal passage with 70s and 80s expected again by Friday.

Day

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected at KDUA, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Southwesterly winds are expected at most terminals today, with gusty winds possible this morning and afternoon. Winds should back to the south after sunset, and are expected to weaken some.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 86 65 81 55 / 0 0 40 70 Hobart OK 89 61 84 50 / 0 10 50 50 Wichita Falls TX 88 65 82 55 / 0 10 70 70 Gage OK 84 52 83 44 / 0 0 40 30 Ponca City OK 84 61 83 50 / 0 0 40 70 Durant OK 82 66 79 60 / 20 10 60 90

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.