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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Temperatures plunge into the 30s / 40s on Sunday (otherwise near or above normal for the rest of the week)

- Dry through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

We're monitoring transient, marginal fire weather conditions again today. Southwest surface flow is allowing us to warm up quite efficiently. This, counter-balanced with increased moisture is expected to result in a similar RH setup to yesterday. The current forecast calls for RH's near 20 percent in western north Texas with an axis of 20-25 percent along a corridor parallel to and just southeast of I-44. That said, some of our more extreme models bring RH's down into the mid teens across western north Texas.

Winds are breezy (15 to 20 mph) through much of southwest and central Oklahoma, though this is expected to peak around noon, then begin decreasing through the afternoon as the low level jet departs. This will help keep peak winds and minimum RH's from lining up temporally.

Overall, the highest chances (moderate) for elevated RFTI's are in western north Texas with lower chances along that corridor southeast of I-44.

Tonight we'll see temperatures fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s with light winds. Winds will begin to shift to northerly as a front enters northern Oklahoma overnight.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Friday and Saturday will be cooler (closer to seasonable) after the passage of the cold front, with a temperature gradient of lower 50s in north central Oklahoma to the low to mid 60s in western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Post-frontal winds on Friday will likely be breezy again, but cooler temperatures should help minimize fire concerns.

Low temperatures will be decreasing through this period. Friday night's low will be in the upper 20s (northern OK) to the upper 30s (southeast OK). A second cold front comes through Saturday night, bringing Saturday night's lows down into the mid teens (northern OK) to mid 20s (southern OK / western north TX). Wind chills will be in the single digits to mid teens.

Day

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at least part of the day Sunday.

Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of next week.

Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However, despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Gusty south/southwest winds will continue through the afternoon before subsiding near sunset. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift late tonight into Friday morning. Skies will be mostly clear other than some occasional high cirrus.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 42 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 39 60 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 41 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 38 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 39 52 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 42 65 37 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.