textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend with a cooldown early next week to more seasonably normal.

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday afternoons across western Oklahoma into western north Texas.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening across northern and western Oklahoma into western north Texas. There will be severe thunderstorm potential in parts of our area on Friday through Tuesday next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Today will feature fire weather in the west, gusty winds, and a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon / evening.

Fire Weather: Forecast remains on track for low RH values (mid to upper teens) to combine with gusty winds (20 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph) across western and northwestern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. Greenup will limit the eastern extent of fire weather concerns, but fuels in our far western / northwestern counties remain volatile (75th to 90th percentile). Scattered cirrus may also play a mitigating role against deeper mixing.

Wind: Winds look to remain below advisory criteria (though a few localized gusts to 40 mph will be possible, particularly over the Wichita mountains), but will be gusty nonetheless.

Storms: Models suggest isolated to scattered storms forming off a dryline in western Oklahoma / north Texas this afternoon and evening. These elevated storms will pose primarily a downburst wind risk.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Heat is set to peak on Friday, approaching record values at several sites.

Fire weather will be a concern primarily in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, where gusty winds will align with low RH values behind the dryline. Fire weather in northwest Oklahoma will be somewhat mitigated by fairly light winds, despite low RH values and volatile fuels. Will be issuing a Red Flag warning across most of our western counties.

Isolated gusts to 40 mph will again be possible in the vicinity of the Wichita mountains, but this activity should remain localized. Holding off on any wind headlines at this time.

Isolated to scattered elevated storms will again be possible off the dryline late Friday afternoon and evening, with downburst winds again as the primary hazard.

Similar setup for Saturday, though slightly less extreme in most respects. The axis of highest winds shifts back slightly north (and we'll have to watch for near wind advisory speeds in the southwest again), and the dryline appears slightly farther west.

Day

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Upper troughing starts digging through the western U.S. becoming more longwave as pressure heights will be falling across our area. Still hot Sunday across much of our western CWA with many 90s although warm 80s highs will be increasing further west of I-35 into west-central OK. Out west the dryline makes another punch into our western CWA. A series of shortwaves flowing downstream from the trough could result in storms over our with probabilities increasing 30-50% Monday into Tuesday when our next cold front is expected to be pushing through. Severe thunderstorms will be possible each day this weekend across parts of our area with the better chance late Sunday as the GFS is suggesting dryline convection. The severe risk becoming most widespread Monday when the synoptic system (main trough and frontal boundary) will be coming through. By Tuesday into Wednesday behind the front we'll finally see a cooldown with temperatures returning back to seasonably normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the region under increasing mid/high cloudiness and gusty southerly winds. Scattered high- based convection is expected to move from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of western Oklahoma later this evening, offering concern for gusty-erratic winds and brief reductions in vis. Storm coverage is forecast to be limited enough that PROB30's were maintained (over inclusion of TEMPO groups).

Overnight, widespread low-level wind shear is expected across Oklahoma and north Texas, with greatest persistence expected near the Red River.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 91 71 88 / 0 20 20 10 Hobart OK 72 101 69 97 / 10 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 98 70 94 / 20 20 20 0 Gage OK 66 99 64 99 / 30 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 70 91 69 90 / 10 10 30 0 Durant OK 70 88 70 87 / 0 0 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-015-021-033-034-036.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ009-010-014- 021-033-034-036.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083-084.