textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record heat likely Wednesday into Thursday with near-critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Strong winds possible behind a cold front on Friday.

- Cooler Friday into Saturday.

- Low chances for rain or an elevated storm Thursday night across far northern OK.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

An upper ridge will continue to build and expand eastward across the U.S. Southwest into the Southern Plains with southerly flow in our lower-levels increasing our warming trend. A shield of Cirrus rotating around the upper ridge/high will keep skies cloudy through this morning although expecting the dirty ridge to clean out by this afternoon with clear skies & maximum sunshine. Warm southerly advection combined with maximum solar heating will result in rapid heating with high temperatures this afternoon into the lower to mid 90s across most of our forecast area. Southeast Oklahoma will see the strongest moisture advection with near 60 degree dewpoints keeping it "relatively" cooler in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. With these temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal, we'll likely either tie or break temperature records this afternoon. Increasing moisture in our southerly flow will form a broad dryline from western Oklahoma through the Panhandles. Gusty south winds up to 25 mph combined with hot and drier air will Elevate fire weather conditions across the western edge of our CWA.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Increasing fire weather conditions and strong winds will be the weather issues during the short term with additional hot temperatures for Thursday. A strong southerly low-level jet will fire up Wednesday night/Thursday morning resulting in 30-40 mph wind gusts by late morning mixing lasting well into the evening prior to the arrival of a strong cold front. Our surface isobaric pattern tightens as well keeping south winds sustained at 20-25 mph. Expecting the broad dryline to punch into our western CWA with lower afternoon RH values extending into much of central Oklahoma which is the eastward extent of the Near Critical fire danger risk. Hot again Thursday afternoon which could also tie or break temperatures records. Hot and more widespread lower RH values and windier conditions will be increasing fire weather conditions as a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect late Thursday morning into the evening hours. A weather system moving through the polar jet in eastern Canada will be pushing a strong cold front across the U.S. Great Plains & Upper Midwest regions and into northern Oklahoma by late Thursday evening. Behind & above the front a shortwave disturbance in the mid-levels may track along the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines bringing very low POPs across far northern Oklahoma Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Although weak but instability in the mid-levels may be sufficient for an elevated thunderstorm from this wave along our northern state line. The strong cold front will continue pushing across our area through Friday morning.

We will see gusty northerly winds behind the strong cold front Friday and could see 45-55 mph gusts behind the front during the morning hours. Should this forecast trend continue could certainly see at least a Wind Advisory Friday morning. Did deviate from NBM for the wind gusts during the latter half of Friday morning using a more robust GFS based on the 925 mb post frontal winds. Friday afternoon remains windy with 40-45 mph gusts. Still a fire danger risk on Friday but will trim both risk areas (Near Critical & Elevated) further west where the lowest RH's will be. Not seeing any strong cooling behind this front with the surface high building over the U.S. Great Plains & Upper Midwest regions. However will see temperatures return to seasonably normal with a cooler breezy Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Southerly winds make a return on Saturday and with one more day of mild seasonably normal temperatures. A low-level jet redevelops both Saturday & Sunday nights resulting in breezy & gusty south winds on Sunday & Monday. Sunday will also be the start of a warming trend with afternoon highs in the 80s. The return of hot & dry air and gusty winds over still dry ground vegetation will also increase the fire weather danger across parts of our area on Sunday & Monday afternoons.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected and south winds will increase this morning and become gusty. Low-level wind shear is expected to develop across at least northern Oklahoma overnight tonight.

As a note: the AWOS at KDUA is reporting low ceilings, low visibilities and occasionally reporting rain this morning. Other sources (satellite, radar, weather cameras, neighboring observations) suggest this is not representative weather and is likely due to sensor issues and/or non-meteorological things (such as spider webs). We are issuing the KDUA TAF as VFR based on these other sources.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 91 65 92 51 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 93 61 95 49 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 93 62 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 94 61 99 42 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 91 64 94 46 / 0 0 0 30 Durant OK 87 64 87 61 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ004>031-033>040-044.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ083>088.