textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Severe storms, a few significant, are expected through this afternoon and tonight.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma into next week.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend with a freeze possible Sunday morning (western and northern Oklahoma).

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening over northern Oklahoma ahead of a cold front, with isolate and discrete supercells possible ahead of the dryline this afternoon. Convective initiation has already begun in Roger Mills, Woods, and Kay Counties, although capping appears to remain farther east and south into central Oklahoma.

The cold front has already moved into northwest Oklahoma but is anticipated to slow in forward progression as a surface low nears the 100th meridian. With MLCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear values prog'd to rise to 3000-3500 J/kg and 50-75kts, hail up to the size of softballs are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma. While models have consistently depicted storms developing along the cold front and growing upscale across northern Oklahoma, they have been meager on storm development ahead of the dryline in western Oklahoma. However, there has been a noticeable increase in depicted supercells (mainly isolated) ahead of the dryline this afternoon and evening, especially near Roger Mills, Dewey, Custer Counties, where the triple point is prog'd. With CI underway, it appears this scenario is beginning to play out. Uncertainty remains if storms will fire farther south ahead of the dryline.

Most of our FA is still significantly capped, with the exception of a narrow zone ahead of the frontal boundaries and CAMS seem to keep it capped as storms advance towards central Oklahoma. Expectation is for storms to become elevated with the cold front this evening while growing upscale and becoming a damaging wind threat and perhaps a few QLCS tornadoes. Line of storms is anticipated to reach the I-40 corridor between 8 PM and 11 PM.

As the front continues southward, strong northerly winds increase by late evening, particularly over western/southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. Severe wind gusts are possible in this area, but whether they are a result of convection or not, remains unclear. Regardless, duration of this appears to be an hour or two. Storms are anticipated to exit our area by 3 AM to 5 AM.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The cold front and showers/storms are expected to clear the FA just before dawn. By this time, post-frontal winds will be strongest closer to the Red River with gusts of 30-40 mph possible, and morning low temperatures will be chilly (40's to low-50's). A cool, dry airmass will be in place for Saturday with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the 60's. The surface high will depart the Rockies and transit our area by Saturday evening with winds becoming light/variable on Saturday night and generally shifting to the south/southwest by Sunday morning. Clear skies and light winds will lead to near freezing temperatures for some locales on Sunday morning.

By this time, an upper ridge is positioned over the western CONUS. A shortwave embedded within the northwest flow will prompt weak cyclogenesis on the lee-side of the Rockies, and this will result in south and southwest winds increasing to 20-25mph across northwest and western Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, pleasant spring weather is expected on Sunday with sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70's.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement with a mid-level ridge dominating the Plains through most of the long term. Overall, mainly dry conditions are expected at least through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the 70s. A low amplitude shortwave trough is expected move across portions of Texas/southern Oklahoma on Monday with height rises and ridging in the wake of this feature on Tuesday. This will result in low rain chances across mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas on Monday with mainly dry conditions on Tuesday.

Confidence is beginning to increase in our next major system arriving Thursday with storm potential ramping back up during this timeframe. This will be a day to keep an eye out for in the coming days.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Most of our terminals should stay in a MVFR category through 08-12Z due to current low ceilings. A strong cold front will be pushing across our terminals between 19-07Z producing a north surface wind shift at 20-25 kts sustained with 30-40 kt gusts. Strong to severe thunderstorm cells will be possible mainly along the frontal boundary which may result in variable wind gusts and lowered visibilities in heavy rain showers. Large hail may also be possible under severe storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 45 64 40 73 / 90 0 0 0 Hobart OK 44 68 37 75 / 50 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 49 69 39 74 / 50 0 0 0 Gage OK 36 67 35 76 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 42 64 38 73 / 100 0 0 0 Durant OK 51 66 42 72 / 80 20 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014>016-021-022.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>086.