textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- A few isolated showers and storms may be possible today and tomorrow across southeast/south central Oklahoma.

- Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend with a slight shift in the pattern aloft.

- Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through next weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A number of the CAMs are showing the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows very little to no mixed-layer convective inhibition (CIN) across eastern Oklahoma and a cumulus field has been bubbling, but there is no real focus for storm development so expect any showers/storms to be isolated and in areas where convergence/lift may be enhanced by terrain or any mesoscale/local effects. As has been a recurring theme, downdraft CAPE is high with 1300-1500 J/kg analyzed across the area, so the strong downburst winds will be possible. Wind shear is weak, so individual updrafts will be relatively short-lived in general.

Otherwise the weather is status quo. The models do not show any significant signal for organized fog Tuesday morning and will not put any in the forecast grids with this package, but the winds will be light, skies mostly clear and RH will be high (especially in the eastern half of the forecast area), so some localized fog can't be ruled out.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

We expect more of the same over the next couple of days. Highs Tuesday will be similar to today, and there will be low precipitation chances across southeast and south central Oklahoma again. Low-level flow veers to more southwest/westerly on Wednesday which allows the low-level thermal axis to build over the area, so highs will be warmer Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be back in the triple digits across the west. Dewpoints will not be too high, so heat index values will be between 100-105.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Hot and humid conditions are expected to remain on track for the end of the work week and into next weekend with Thursday looking to be the hottest. Northwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves will bring increased chances for storms daily to the area later this week and into the weekend. The pattern aloft will then begin to shift towards the end of the weekend as the ridge lifts northward into the northern Rockies and another ridge builds over the southeast CONUS, bringing in Gulf moisture and a potential for continued chances of precipitation into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light east/southeast winds prevailing. Very low chances (<10%) for a shower or storm to develop are possible through the afternoon and early evening, mainly east of I-35. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with scattered cumulus.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 93 72 98 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 71 96 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 69 96 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 70 90 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 73 94 74 96 / 20 20 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.