textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Record heat likely into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues Saturday & Sunday with the highest risk on Sunday near and behind a front. - Hotter temperatures return on Tuesday with nil chance for precipitation over at least the next 6 days.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

A much-discussed early season heat wave continues across the Southern Plains today, with high confidence in setting daily temperature records across most of the area.

A strong upper high/ridge remains the dominant control of sensible weather, with nebulous near-surface forcing mechanisms. Diurnal mixing into an anomalously warm low-level airmass will yield peak daytime temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, including potential for triple digits across the Texas Rolling Plains. Daily high temperature records are nearly a guarantee for our three primary climate sites (OKC/Lawton/Wichita Falls) with low (<20%) potential for meeting or exceeding all-time March high temperatures here.

Ongoing wind conditions early this afternoon are overperforming previous forecast expectations across northwestern Oklahoma, with northwesterly wind gusts up to 20 mph remaining possible this afternoon. Combined with very hot and dry conditions, intervals of elevated fire weather concern will remain possible over the coming hours, and a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will continue for Harper, Woods, Woodward and Ellis Counties until 7 PM.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Summer-like conditions and escalating fire weather risk remain the main weather headlines as we go throughout the weekend.

We will begin to transition towards a more dynamic/changeable surface pattern by Saturday afternoon, as the strong Southwestern U.S. ridge begins to break down and move eastward. This will include increasingly gustier southerly wind into the afternoon across western portions of the area, as pressure falls increase in the lee of the Rockies.

Combined with hot temperatures and very low afternoon humidity (<15%) a more coherent (and significant) fire risk is forecast to take shape, especially across northwestern Oklahoma. A Red Flag Warning has been posted for portions of western Oklahoma into adjacent western-north Texas from 1 PM to 9 PM on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday morning will feature unseasonably warm nighttime conditions, with temperatures likely to remain at or above 60 degrees across most of the area. Depending on the strength and timing of cooling behind the front later on Sunday, daily "warm lows" for March 22nd may be challenged at regional climate sites.

As a stronger upper wave rotates atop the dissipating ridge across the Great Lakes, a notable frontal passage is expected to occur across the region on Sunday. Gusty winds are expected during the daytime both ahead of (out of the southwest) and behind (out of the north) the front, with highest frequency of 40-45 mph gusts expected in the post front.

The passing front will prove crucial in the magnitude/areas/timing of fire weather concern on Sunday. At least for now, there appears to be enough misalignment of weather components (i.e., temperatures, winds, humidity) to avoid a prolonged and widespread high-end fire weather environment. Still, widespread near-critical to locally critical conditions remain forecast across much of western and central Oklahoma and north Texas. It's also important to keep in mind that some degree of fire weather concern will continue in the post front, amidst an increasingly gusty north wind, as rather warm temperatures/lower humidity will remain prior to sunset. A Fire Weather Watch has been initiated for much of Oklahoma and western-north Texas from 9 AM to 9 PM on Sunday.

Everyone will note the continued record-setting warmth across the region over the weekend. This includes widespread peak readings in the mid to upper-90s both Saturday and Sunday (ahead of the front), with locales across western-north Texas likely reaching 100 degrees. Thankfully, low humidity will keep concern for heat stress low, though sensitive groups should exercise appropriate actions if planning outdoor time, especially near and south of the Red River.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Our shallow Canadian air mass will start to weaken on Monday as its surface high shifts to the U.S. Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region providing some short-term relief from the heat with more mild 70s highs and a cooler night. Gusty southwest winds return Tuesday bringing a hotter and drier air mass from western & northern Texas into our area. Much warmer on Tuesday with highs in the 80s to hot across our southwest into the lower 90s. Our zonal flow aloft starts shifting northwest with increasing pressure heights as a ridge starts building across the Southwestern U.S. Our heating trend will continue at least through Thursday as the upper ridge expands further eastward across the Southern U.S. A weather system tracking eastward somewhere between the U.S. Great Lakes and Canadian province of Ontario may push a cold front through our area late Thursday with another potential of cooler shallow Canadian air behind it for the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Light, mainly southwest to south winds will prevail through 18Z Saturday. The wind may be a little stronger behind a surface trough in northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR ceilings will prevail with a few high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 57 95 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 53 98 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 98 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 51 97 60 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 53 93 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 60 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ004>042-044>046-050.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083-084- 087.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ083>090.