textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot temperatures continue for the foreseeable future.

- Elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma Tuesday and potentially again Wednesday/Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The heat wave rolls on today. The subtropical ridge continues across an axis from the Four Corners to the Florida Keys and nothing in the near term looks to budge it. 850 mb winds remain veered across the High Plains which will encourage deep mixing. Surface temperatures will rise well into the 100s west of I-35 and to around 100 near the I-35 corridor.

Elevated fire weather continues today in northwest Oklahoma in part thanks to that strong mixing, which will increase maximum gusts to 25 mph and reduce minimum RH to around 25%. Fire weather conditions will improve around sunset as winds decrease; the oppressive heat will be slower to recede over the early parts of the night.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level pattern during the short-term will be characterized by the emergence of a broad, though rather weak trough reaching the Pacific Coast. This will help to recenter the subtropical ridge over the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. A surface low pressure will develop over the area on Thursday with a weak front possibly entering from the north as well.

Rather than that frontal boundary providing heat relief, downslope mixing + compressional warming near the surface low will potentially bring temperatures up another degree or two compared to today. Fire weather could also be elevated (or perhaps locally near-critical) across parts of western Oklahoma Wednesday/Thursday afternoon, though the location of the surface low will play a key role in that (stronger surface winds to the south and west of the low, weaker winds near and north of the low).

Some guidance (notably the NAM) depicts a disturbance or two developing on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge by Thursday evening. Any storms that develop from those MCVs would likely remain to our west, but rain/thunderstorm chances are at least mentionable (20 percent or so) in northwest Oklahoma Thursday night.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

There's not much to say about the long-term pattern that hasn't already been said. The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate from the Gulf Coast to the southern Plains through the upcoming week. There will be a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California northward through Arizona/New Mexico and northeastward into the central Plains. This pattern will encourage thunderstorm development daily throughout the plume. However, for most of us, subsidence from the subtropical ridge looks likely to keep all rain and cooler temperatures away at least through the middle of next week.

The potential exception to the rule is northwest Oklahoma. Here, there is a little more distance from the center of the subtropical high. There's also a little less distance to the Rocky Mountain terrain features that will initiate daily thunderstorms from Friday through the weekend. Thus, low-end nocturnal precipitation chances remain in the forecast in far northwest OK from Friday night through Monday night. For the rest of us, expect hot, dry, and sunny weather to continue.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds this afternoon will relax and back towards the southeast overnight. Veered winds will return at all locations by the middle of the morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 79 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 104 79 105 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 77 104 79 105 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 80 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 78 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.