textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Showers/storms possible this evening/overnight. A few strong storms are possible, but widespread strong or severe storms are not likely.

- Rain/storm chances continue through the rest of the week into next weekend with near normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Complex forecast this evening as to where precipitation (if any) is most likely to develop. There are a number of surface boundaries across the area. The primary boundary for our area is near the Red River with southeast winds across western north Texas and northeast winds through much of Oklahoma, but there are also outflow boundaries just south/southeast of the OKC metro and another one pushing into northwest Oklahoma from the earlier convection in Kansas. Models are not showing much development this afternoon and early evening with the lack of any significant forcing, but SPC mesoanalysis shows increasing instability in the south with decreasing CIN, and these boundaries may be enough to help focus the development of isolated showers/storms. Cumulus has been growing in north Texas this afternoon and is beginning to develop across southwest Oklahoma where mesoanalysis shows an area of deep layer moisture flux convergence. Without significant forcing or upper support this evening, we don't really expect showers or storms to become too widespread, but have included at least a slight chance of showers/storms over a broader area than the models would suggest. There is 1400-1500 J/kg of downdraft CAPE currently analyzed over southern Oklahoma and north Texas and 2500-3000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE, so any significant storms that do develop will have some potential to become strong or even severe, especially with the wind.

Additional thunderstorm development over the New Mexico High Plains may move toward the the meridian toward sunrise.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The forecast area remains between the upper ridge to the east and the slow-moving upper low hanging around the Baja California Peninsula/Gulf of California area with flow becoming more southeasterly allowing some additional low level moisture to spread back into the area. With this, there will be occasional chances of showers and storms mid-week, but specific timing will be difficult to pin-point in the weakly forced environment. High temperatures are expected to be close to seasonable normals with low temperatures a little warmer than our early-June normal.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

After temporarily retreating westward, rain and storm chances will expand eastward over later Thursday into the weekend as a slow moving cutoff low in the mid to upper levels inches closer to the region. Several rounds of showers and storms are possible during this time frame, bringing a risk for locally heavy rain and a low (but non-zero) risk for severe weather.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Generally light easterly winds continue tonight with VFR conditions. A few models hint at possible MVFR conditions early Wednesday morning though certainty is low on extent and duration. Ceilings should lift throughout the morning and winds shift to the southeast. Shower and storm chances increase in the afternoon and evening, especially across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 87 67 86 / 10 20 10 20 Hobart OK 69 90 66 88 / 20 20 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 70 90 67 88 / 10 20 20 40 Gage OK 68 89 64 86 / 30 40 60 30 Ponca City OK 69 85 65 86 / 10 10 0 20 Durant OK 72 87 70 85 / 20 10 0 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.