textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday afternoon into the evening across southeast Oklahoma.

- Much cooler than normal temperatures will continue through early Thursday.

- Frost possible Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Strong cold front continues to push through southern and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon. Although a couple of elevated storms remain possible across southeast Oklahoma, with some hail potential. However most of the severe storms will remain south and east of the cwa.

Farther north, behind the front a much cooler airmass has overspread the area with temperatures not expected to climb out of the 50s across the north, while across central into southern parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas temperatures have already reached their max and have begun to fall with strong low-level cold advection. This has also created some strong, gusty north to northeast winds. The winds will gradually diminish this afternoon and into tonight.

For tonight could see some lingering showers across the southeast, while across the High Plains a combination of upslope and an approaching upper trough will likely produce an area of showers to our west and northwest. This activity will then move east and may move into far northern/northwestern Oklahoma. The chance of light rain will continue in northwest Oklahoma into the day Wednesday. Any rainfall amounts will remain light.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

As the aforementioned trough moves slowly out into the Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, it will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air. This along with widespread cloud cover will keep temperatures again well below seasonal norms during the day. Highs will range from the mid 50s in northwest, 60s along I-40 to the low to mid 70s along the Red River and western north Texas.

Skies will gradually clear Wednesday night and winds become light, allowing temperatures to drop down into the 30s across portions of northern and northwestern Oklahoma. Depending on how low the dewpoints go and clouds clear there is a chance of a frost in these areas and an outside chance of getting near freezing in far northwest Oklahoma. A few showers may also accompany the trough into portions of northwest Oklahoma Wednesday night. Again any precip amounts will be very light.

With southwesterly low/mid level flow, a deep layer of warm air advection will occur during the day on Thursday. So after a very cool morning, the combination of warm advection and sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 70s Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

As quickly as the mini-cooldown arrived, it will be gone with the subtropical jet's departure and we'll move back into a mini-heatwave on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will push into the low-90s in western north Texas on the former day and near 100 on the latter. Precipitation chances will be minimal.

Following that, northwest flow gets introduced into the equation as the subtropical ridge expands and dominates across the western half of the country. It's still a little early in the warm season for northwest flow to be automatically associated with convection off of the high terrain to our northwest, but there's at least some signal on global guidance being wrapped into our NBM/gridded forecast on Sunday and Monday. That is decidedly not the case on Tuesday, as the ridge deamplifies and migrates eastward. The signal on Tuesday would suggest that record-breaking heat is within the distribution of reasonable outcomes.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A cold front continues to progress towards KDUA with MVFR ceilings gusty N/NNE winds prevalent behind the front. MVFR conditions are expected to continue into tomorrow morning, although there is a chance that ceilings lift for a short period this evening. LLWS is possible tonight into Wednesday morning for areas mainly along and south of I40. Will see lighter winds early morning and then become gusty once again as a secondary cold front moves into the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 47 65 43 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 46 70 43 75 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 49 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 41 55 35 75 / 30 20 30 0 Ponca City OK 46 60 41 70 / 30 0 10 0 Durant OK 53 71 50 72 / 20 10 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.