textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- An ongoing frontal passage will usher in cooler/seasonable temperatures and gusty northerly winds today. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected during the afternoon. - A stronger cold front on Friday will foster additional periods of gusty winds and potentially more significant fire weather concern.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The leading edge of a much-discussed cold front is pushing across northern Oklahoma as we cross the midnight hour. While the main period of gusty northerly winds arrives after ~9 AM this morning, a corridor of 30-45 mph gusts will continue over the coming hours across western Oklahoma and into western-north Texas. Widespread northerly wind gusts exceeding 30 mph are expected late this morning and afternoon.

The ongoing frontal passage remains unlikely to bring a stark cooldown in temperatures today, though still 10+ degrees cooler than yesterday. Upper-40s are forecast across northern Oklahoma with upper-50s across our far southwestern counties. While broken cloud cover/filtered insolation is anticipated, should more persistent cloud cover linger in any particular area, expect temperatures to run a degree or two short of the current gridded forecast (especially across northern Oklahoma).

The combination of gusty winds and dry fuels will again lead to concern for elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area from late this morning into this afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger (RFD) Statement has been posted for the whole area from 11 AM to 5 PM today. Fortunately, with cooler temperatures and minimal "dry air" advection during the daytime, a more problematic fire weather environment should be avoided.

Finally, cannot discount a few streamer-like bands of very light precipitation across northern Oklahoma this morning. This potential remains very low (~5-10%) for any one area, and may ultimately be mitigated by a rather dry below cloud layer airmass.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds should relax after sunset on Wednesday, with a very cold overnight period expected thereafter (as a 1028-mb surface high moves overhead). Widespread wind chill temperatures in the 20s to upper-10s are expected for the morning commute on Thursday.

Daytime conditions on Thursday will trend us back towards unseasonable conditions for most locations, especially western zones. Another warm downsloped airmass will slide overhead during the daytime, along with a more dominant (and occasionally gusty) southwest wind. Temperatures will range from the low-70s near the 100th meridian to mid-50s across eastern Oklahoma. Spotty elevated fire weather conditions will be possible near the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle border during the afternoon.

Another strong frontal passage looks to occur by the late evening on Thursday. Similar to today/Wednesday, post-frontal airmass modification is currently expected to be rather muted, with seasonable (50s) temperatures returning into Friday afternoon.

With another round of gusty (>35 mph) north-northwesterly winds and much lower relative humidity (likely <20% in many locations), Friday afternoon looks to offer the most problematic fire weather environment of the week, particularly across western Oklahoma. At least near-critical fire weather conditions are likely during the afternoon here.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The upcoming weekend and early next week time frame looks to offer generally seasonable (and dry) weather. A prominent longwave upper trough will remain anchored across portions of the Great Lakes, with occasional shortwaves rounding its periphery.

Saturday still looks to be a somewhat cooler day, with potential for realized high temperatures to run a bit below our current gridded forecast with potential for widespread cloudiness, and as a 1024+ millibar surface high moves overhead. Our forecast for Sunday may meet similar pitfalls, with current forecast readings running near the 75th+ percentile of grand ensemble guidance.

Afternoon periods of lowered relative humidity and occasionally gusty winds will continue the trend of fire weather potential through at least Sunday. The continued lack of any appreciable precipitation chance over the next 7 days won't help the ongoing drought/state of fire weather fuels either.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds are moving south early this morning. Brief periods of scattered to broken stratus (lower clouds) are expected mid morning into the afternoon. However, most of this stratus is expected to be VFR ceilings. There is a low probability (~5 to 10%) a terminal will experience MVFR ceilings.

Breezy northerly winds will become gustier this morning and remain gusty through sunset. Winds will become light and then variable this evening into the overnight as they gradually shift toward the southwest.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 28 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 55 27 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 58 30 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 49 26 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 24 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 56 29 54 38 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.