textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances increase today and continue into Saturday. Highest rain totals western and northern OK.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday night into early next week, some severe storms possible Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rain showers will continue to build north and east across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma early this morning. The latest models runs are really backing off on rainfall amounts across the area with the highest QPF remaining across the northwestern half of the area today with amounts in the quarter to three-quarters of an inch range. Across the southeast half, lighter amounts area expected with anywhere from a few hundredths to perhaps a couple of tenths of an inch. Limited instability will keep thunderstorm chances low, but a few are possible, mainly this morning.

Several models show the shortwave splitting into two main lobes of energy with one piece of energy lifting north across western Oklahoma, while the other piece(remnants of Vance) slides east across central and southern Texas through the day and into tonight. Some of the precip associated with this may skirt far southeast Oklahoma. Another, more concentrated round of precip is expected Friday evening, mainly across western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Otherwise, extensive cloud cover and associated precip will keep temperatures in check with highs ranging from the middle 60s across the west to upper 70s in the southeast.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Another shortwave moves across the area on Saturday, but again the models are showing a weakening trend with this wave as it approaches. So, although the probability of rain may be in the 30-50% range, rainfall amounts looks to be very light. Will likely reduce these probabilities as new model runs continue to lower rain chances on Saturday.

The remainder of the weekend(late Saturday thru Sunday) looks to remain dry other than a rouge shower or two as shortwave ridging develops. Otherwise, skies will remain cloudy, with light south to southeast winds and temperatures in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Monday, our attention quickly turns to a more robust storm system taking shape across the southwest as two storm systems, one in the southern branch and one in the northern branch approach from the west. Although some timing issues remain, there looks to be sufficient moisture and temperature profiles(1000-1500 CAPE) and somewhat favorable winds fields(better wrt both fields in the 12Z ECMWF) that severe weather would be possible. Although the storm system moves quickly, there could be some heavy rainfall with this activity as well. Currently the more widespread heavy rainfall looks to occur across eastern Oklahoma and from the Ozarks into northeast Texas Monday night and Tuesday.

As the wave moves by, an associated cold front will sweep south across the area bringing gusty north winds and cooler temperatures for Tuesday with some lingering showers possible. After highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s Monday, highs will be in the 60s and lower 70s Tuesday.

By Tuesday night the system develops a closed low across the Ozarks region and then slowly shifts east through Thursday. This will maintain a northerly wind across Oklahoma and north Texas through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday before shifting back to the south. This will keep temperatures from rebounding with highs remaining in the 60s and lower 70s through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An area of rain will move into western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma not long after 06Z and move north-northeastward through the morning. This area will lead to a period of 3-4 hours of steadier rain, lowered ceilings (MVFR to IFR), and potentially reduced visibilities right at daybreak. A lull will likely then occur in precipitation for much of the afternoon, though breaking back through to VFR ceilings may be difficult. More light to moderate rain is expected after 0Z.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 57 69 58 / 80 30 40 10 Hobart OK 68 56 68 58 / 90 60 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 72 57 72 59 / 70 50 30 0 Gage OK 64 52 64 54 / 90 70 30 0 Ponca City OK 73 57 70 57 / 90 40 40 20 Durant OK 78 60 74 60 / 0 30 50 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.