textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 158 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk continues on Wednesday & Thursday; Damaging wind gusts and large hail are primary hazards.

- Hot & muggy conditions continue this week, with heat indices near and above 100-105 degrees each afternoon and early evening. - Active pattern continues over the weekend, with additional chances for rain and storms.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A slowly decaying complex of rain/thunder across northwestern Oklahoma will continue to offer some concern for strong wind gusts (up to ~50-60 mph) through 4 AM this morning. Otherwise, Wednesday will continue the trend of hot and humid daytime conditions along with low potential for storms/severe weather across western and northern extents of the area.

Ambient temperatures will likely run a few degrees warmer compared to Tuesday, as the axis of a pronounced low-level thermal ridge moves closer to the forecast area. A continued reservoir of ~65-70+ degree surface dewpoints will combine to yield peak heat indices above 105F across much of northern Oklahoma, where a Heat Advisory will continue from 1 PM to 7 PM this evening, and was expanded to include Harper, Ellis, Woodward, Dewey and Roger Mills Counties.

While most folks will again remain rain/storm-free today and tonight, slightly better chances for scattered eveningtime thunderstorms are expected across western into northern Oklahoma, as a weak boundary continues its slow approach. Strongest thunderstorms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. While hot surface temperatures may temper the hail risk some, at least prior to ~sunset, slightly stronger mid-level flow/wind shear (compared to prior days) will allow for a more "equal" chance of aforementioned severe weather hazards.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Slow-decaying convection may continue in spots across northern Oklahoma into the initial phases of Wednesday night, though concern for severe weather is forecast to be nil by this time.

A more notable frontal passage will take place through the day on Thursday, as a compact upper system deepens and moves rapidly eastward across the Central Plains through the day. Despite this, we continue to expect the continuation of dangerously hot and humid conditions across the southern two-thirds of our area. At least locally >105F heat indices are forecast and additional heat headlines are likely at forthcoming updates.

The front will also serve as the focus for scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, evening and night. Rich boundary layer moisture and hot temperatures, yielding strong instability build, will combine with sufficient deep-layer wind fields/shear for another period of severe thunderstorm concern. Damaging downburst wind events and large hail look to remain the main severe hazards during this time.

Thunderstorm potential will continue into Friday morning, as a nocturnal low-level jet increases in vicinity of the slowing frontal boundary. Depending on how widespread coverage is earlier in the evening, some concern for flooding may emerge across central and southern Oklahoma into Friday.

While slightly cooler ambient conditions are expected on Friday, especially behind the front, and where rain/clouds persist towards the afternoon, continued high surface moisture will push heat index readings back towards 100 degrees south of Interstate 40. While confidence in area/coverage is low at this point, with quasi-zonal flow continuing atop a regionally located frontal boundary, additional rain and storm activity is possible on Friday evening into night.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A relatively active pattern looks to continue across Oklahoma and north Texas into the weekend, as an upper system looks to mature upstream across the Intermountain West. The most active period of rain and storms currently looks to be Saturday night into Sunday, as another strong frontal boundary sweeps north-to-south across the region. Some strong-severe storm and heavy rainfall/flooding risk is likely over the weekend, though no particular period stands above the rest at this point.

Hot and humid conditions will also continue over the weekend, especially on Saturday (prior to the front), before a more prolonged and notable "cooldown" - low to mid-80s highs - arrives into early next week.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MVFR ceilings in north Texas are pushing northeast toward KDUA, and expect at least some period this morning with MVFR ceilings there. Another band of stratus across west Texas is also pushing northeast, but the probability of MVFR ceilings at the southwestern TAF sites is too low to include in the TAFs.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening from north central to southwestern Oklahoma with the highest potential in north central Oklahoma (KPNC). The probability is too low elsewhere to include PROB30 groups elsewhere. But strong and gusty winds will be possible near any thunderstorms that do develop.

A strong low-level jet develops overnight and expect non- convective low-level wind shear at most of the TAF sites after around 04Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 95 78 96 70 / 0 0 40 80 Hobart OK 97 77 97 70 / 10 20 40 60 Wichita Falls TX 96 77 98 74 / 0 0 0 60 Gage OK 101 79 94 66 / 20 20 10 30 Ponca City OK 95 79 95 67 / 40 30 50 30 Durant OK 90 79 91 77 / 0 0 0 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>015-017>020.

TX...None.