textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 451 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Dry with near record to record-breaking temperatures through Saturday.

- Cold front arrives on Sunday with below-normal temperatures by Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

An anomalously strong subtropical ridge (~590 dam) remains entrenched across the Southern Plains, which will continue near- record to record warmth this week. The Norman 00Z observed sounding from yesterday evening had a 589 dam height at 500 mb, which is 7 dam higher than the previous record for the date.

For this morning, areas of fog--some dense--are ongoing northern Oklahoma in close proximity of a remnant/stalled front with a saturated boundary layer and moisture pooling. The fog will likely persist across northern Oklahoma through mid-morning before the remnant front dissipates (frontolysis) with increasing south- southwest winds. Elsewhere, some patchy fog is possible this morning (but should be less widespread than northern Oklahoma).

For today, high clouds will generally increase from the west. Even with the high clouds, another warm day is expected with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s deg F (~25 to 30 deg F above normal for late December). Record-breaking temperatures are unlikely today only because we had some very warm Christmas Eves in 1955 and 2021. Brief, elevated fire weather conditions are possible in far northwest Oklahoma this afternoon as relative humidity values fall below 20%.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1250 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Record-breaking temperatures are likely on Christmas Day with the anomalously strong mid-level ridge continuing to influence Oklahoma and north Texas. Westerly 850 mb flow on the northern periphery of the ridge will allow downslope-warmed air off the higher terrain to the west to advect eastward into the Southern Plains.

Christmas morning will be quite warm for late December with low temperatures in the 50s and 60s deg F for most location. These low temperatures are above the typical high temperatures in late December. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s (north) to the mid 80s deg F (southwest). These high temperatures are ~30 deg F above normal for Christmas Day.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The anomalously warm weather will continue on Friday and Saturday with Oklahoma and north Texas on the northwest periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Downslope-warmed air off the higher terrain to the west will continue to advect eastward into the Southern Plains from westerly flow just above the surface. High temperatures on both days will be once again in the 70s and 80s deg F. Veered low-level flow may result in elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma Saturday afternoon with some drier air advecting eastward.

By Sunday, a significant pattern change is expected across the Southern Plains as a mid/upper-level trough amplifies across the eastern U.S. The amplifying trough will drive a strong cold front southward on Sunday with appreciable cold air advection from gusty northerly winds. A non-diurnal temperature trend is possible for some locations Sunday afternoon with falling temperatures due to the cold air advection. The gusty northerly winds behind the front may also result in elevated fire weather conditions as the coldest air won't arrive until Monday.

Wind chills by Monday morning are forecast to be in the teens and 20s deg F. Below-normal temperatures are likely Monday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 30s (north central Oklahoma) to the upper 40s deg F (western north Texas).

The colder weather does appear brief with a warming trend toward the middle part of next week as the mid/upper-level trough departs.

Rain chances look minimal/near zero for the remainder of 2025 with only a very low chance across far southeast Oklahoma with the front on Sunday. Unfortunately, drought conditions look to continue to worsen across Oklahoma and north Texas for the foreseeable future.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Fog is affecting parts of northern OK (most likely KPNC and KSWO). Visibility of 1/4 or less has been reported at several locations in northern OK. However, fog is a bit patchy. Fog is expected to diminish by mid/late morning. Additional fog may develop early Thursday in north central OK (KPNC) but too uncertain at this point to put in TAF. Winds are expected to increase from the SW later this morning with wind speeds decreasing a little this evening/night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 76 57 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 56 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 78 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 54 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 79 60 79 62 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>008- 010>013-020.

TX...None.