textproduct: Norman

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

As of 1 AM, the surface analysis indicated a dryline positioned across west-central Kansas to west of Beaver to west of Amarillo. A quasi-stationary cold front also extended across Nebraska. Mid-level flow remains quasi-zonal with subtle embedded shortwaves flowing within the mean flow. Despite a few heatbursts observed overnight, which warranted a Wind Advisory across parts of northern/central Oklahoma, and associated drops in relative humidity, dewpoint temperatures in these areas are recovering relatively quickly. Highest wind gusts within the past few hours was 68 mph at Clinton decaying convection and heat bursts probable factors. Air temperatures at this hour are remarkably warm and range from the upper 70's over northwest and west- central Oklahoma to mid 60's over southeastern Oklahoma. The Wind Advisory may need to be extended through late morning across parts of central Oklahoma, and will watch trends.

The H500 jet max is prog'd to reach the four corners region this afternoon, and without any other significant steering flow, the front is expected to move very slowly this afternoon. Latest CAMS suggest by 4PM, the front will be positioned near Sweetwater - Fairview - Blackwell and a weak surface low will migrate southward over the TX panhandle. Ahead of the front, breezy south-southwest winds at 20-30 mph (gusts to 40 mph) and warm temperatures are expected. By late afternoon, dewpoint temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 50's to low 60's. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across much of the FA.

The 00Z models still differ with the degree of instability, ranging anywhere from 1500 J/kg to 3500 J/kg by this evening, and the HREF provides a mean CAPE value near 2100 J/kg. With inverted-V soundings and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, damaging winds (60 to 70 mph) and large hail (up to half-dollars) are the hazards of concern for storms that develop ahead of these boundaries. CAMS show dominant convection developing near the surface low and ahead of the dryline, which would impact primarily parts of western OK and western north Texas between 4-7 PM. However, CI is also possible ahead of the quasi- cold front (farther east) but coverage and timing of this is less certain. If storms hold together, would anticipate arrival into parts of central Oklahoma within the 9PM - 12 AM time frame.

Thompson

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

As of 1 AM, the surface analysis indicated a dryline positioned across west-central Kansas to west of Beaver to west of Amarillo. A quasi-stationary cold front also extended across Nebraska. Mid-level flow remains quasi-zonal with subtle embedded shortwaves flowing within the mean flow. Despite a few heatbursts observed overnight, which warranted a Wind Advisory across parts of northern/central Oklahoma, and associated drops in relative humidity, dewpoint temperatures in these areas are recovering relatively quickly. Highest wind gusts within the past few hours was 68 mph at Clinton decaying convection and heat bursts probable factors. Air temperatures at this hour are remarkably warm and range from the upper 70's over northwest and west- central Oklahoma to mid 60's over southeastern Oklahoma. The Wind Advisory may need to be extended through late morning across parts of central Oklahoma, and will watch trends.

The H500 jet max is prog'd to reach the four corners region this afternoon, and without any other significant steering flow, the front is expected to move very slowly this afternoon. Latest CAMS suggest by 4PM, the front will be positioned near Sweetwater - Fairview - Blackwell and a weak surface low will migrate southward over the TX panhandle. Ahead of the front, breezy south-southwest winds at 20-30 mph (gusts to 40 mph) and warm temperatures are expected. By late afternoon, dewpoint temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 50's to low 60's. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across much of the FA.

The 00Z models still differ with the degree of instability, ranging anywhere from 1500 J/kg to 3500 J/kg by this evening, and the HREF provides a mean CAPE value near 2100 J/kg. With inverted-V soundings and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, damaging winds (60 to 70 mph) and large hail (up to half-dollars) are the hazards of concern for storms that develop ahead of these boundaries. CAMS show dominant convection developing near the surface low and ahead of the dryline, which would impact primarily parts of western OK and western north Texas between 4-7 PM. However, CI is also possible ahead of the quasi- cold front (farther east) but coverage and timing of this is less certain. If storms hold together, would anticipate arrival into parts of central Oklahoma within the 9PM - 12 AM time frame.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The aforementioned cold front over northern Oklahoma retreats northward as large-scale ascent increases over the region with the approach of the large scale trough. At the surface, winds return to the south and enhanced return flow will raise dewpoint temperatures into the low/mid-60's across much of the FA. Despite abundant mid/high-level cloud-cover, high temperatures are expected to rise into the 80's with near 90 deg over western north Texas.

As the trough approaches ejects from the four corners region and the leading 50-60kt jet max (H500) reaches the panhandles region, the dryline is advances to at least the 100th meridian (and possibly far western Oklahoma) by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorm development is anticipated by late afternoon across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas with the arrival of stronger upper flow and near the dryline. Storm mode may be a hybrid of discrete and quasi-linear storms initially before growing upscale and marching into central Oklahoma on Wednesday night. Significant damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are possible, especially over southwest OK and western north TX. In addition, large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter and a few tornadoes are also possible. The strongest cores could produce 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall.

Shower/storm activity is expected to exit the FA on Thursday morning, with clearing skies early and warm temperatures expected that afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Another round of showers/storms is likely by Friday evening and during the overnight hours. Some storms may be strong to severe with widespread beneficial rainfall expected into Saturday for some areas. Cooler temperatures return over the weekend, with a warming trend by early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Breezy south/southwest winds and mostly VFR conditions are expected. Winds shift to the north at KWWR with a frontal passage mid-morning and at KPNC by late afternoon. LLWS is possible this morning and again tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible over northern/western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late afternoon into the evening hours with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 87 65 84 59 / 10 50 40 90 Hobart OK 90 61 86 55 / 20 30 50 80 Wichita Falls TX 90 65 88 61 / 10 20 40 90 Gage OK 86 48 80 49 / 20 40 40 50 Ponca City OK 88 58 82 57 / 20 50 50 100 Durant OK 85 65 85 63 / 0 10 10 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.