textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- There is risk for severe thunderstorm in parts of our area through least Tuesday of next week.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected most afternoons across western Oklahoma into western north Texas.

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend with a cooler weather by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Fire weather is ramping up across our west with RH values dropping to near 10 percent along our western border and southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range, gusting to near 40 mph (strongest winds along an axis from western north Texas / southwest Oklahoma up through central Oklahoma). The most extreme fire weather conditions will be centered in southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas where the stronger winds overlap with the dry air and volatile fuels. Dry lightning will also be a risk factor in this area this evening.

Temperatures will rise into the 100 to 105 degree range across western Oklahoma, with upper 80s / lower 90s expected through central Oklahoma. Several sites will approach record values. Parts of southwest Oklahoma may approach heat advisory criteria, but this should be localized and effects will be mitigated by partly cloudy skies, low humidities, and breezy winds.

Isolated to widely scattered elevated storms are expected to initiate off the dryline again late this afternoon with downburst winds as the main hazard. CAMs suggest western north Texas as the most likely area for these storms with a secondary signal in far northwest Oklahoma. As of this writing, we're starting to see some notable cumulus develop in the southeast Texas panhandle. Similar to last night, there is also a risk for heat bursts and wake lows with lingering showers through the night.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Another hot day on Saturday with fire weather expected in the west.

The dryline is expected to set up a bit farther west, giving us RH values in the mid to upper teens across western and northwestern Oklahoma. This will combine with gusty winds to yield near critical fire weather conditions.

Isolated dryline convection will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, though probabilities will be lower due to capping. The strongest signals for storms are again western north Texas with a secondary signal in far northwest Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards with any storms that develop.

Sunday's fire weather risk will be focused in northwest Oklahoma where gusty south winds (20 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph) and low RH values (teens) will combine over volatile fuels (90-95th percentile) producing critical fire danger conditions.

Dryline convection will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening with two subtle differences. Upper level forcing will be stronger, giving a modest increase in storm chances (still looking at isolated to widely scattered storms). And low level moisture will be increased, allowing for a low risk for tornadoes in addition to hail and damaging winds.

Day

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

For Monday, the primary shortwave trough is forecast to lift into the Plains with synopic-scale ascent overspreading the region in tandem with a strong low-level jet. A highly unstable air mass is expected by Monday afternoon to the east of the dryline with deep, low-level moisture. While the current forecast track of the shortwave trough keeps the strongest flow/shear to our north, vertical wind shear will be more than sufficient for supercells with the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. With the primary wave passing by on Monday, thunderstorm coverage is expected to be the greatest on this day.

By Monday night into Tuesday morning, a cold front will move through, which should allow a line of thunderstorms to advance from northwest to southeast. As a result, there will be a continued threat of severe weather through the overnight hours.

Beyond Tuesday, an unsettled weather pattern is forecast to persist across the Southern Plains with the potential for additional shortwave troughs to move across the region with a daily chance for thunderstorms through the end of the week.

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty southerly winds will continue through tomorrow. There is a signal for LLWS to affect all TAF sites until Saturday morning. There is a very low chance for showers and thunderstorms to impact portions of northern and western Oklahoma and western north Texas. With these decaying showers and thunderstorms, sporadic strong winds would be the main concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 88 71 88 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 70 98 70 94 / 20 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 70 94 70 92 / 20 10 10 10 Gage OK 65 99 69 97 / 20 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 70 91 72 91 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 71 89 72 89 / 20 10 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-009- 010-014-021-022-033>036.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083.