textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week.

- Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong to severe storms are possible on Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Surface high pressure, centered over the north-central Plains, will continue to provide for northeasterly winds today. Isentropic ascent could lead to patchy drizzle/fog and a few showers this morning. As isentropic ascent weakens this afternoon, ceilings will gradually lift and we may see a little sun. With extensive stratus, afternoon temperatures will only peak in the 60's to 70's.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft, coupled with weak upslope flow, will provide for a low chance of showers/storms again this evening across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Rain chances will increase overnight and spread across central Oklahoma, with high POPs during the day on Thursday due to the approach of the upper wave. Abundant cloud-cover will keep high temperatures below- average on Thursday (upper 60's to mid 70's) with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Given anomalously high precipitable water content, which is prog'd to be well above the 90th percentile, efficient/heavy rainfall appears likely during the day on Thursday. Storm total QPF of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for areas along/east of the I-44 corridor. Locally higher amounts (2-4 inches) are possible with thunderstorms, which will bring the risk of flash flooding. CAMS would suggest this risk is initially southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas in the morning and then southeastern Oklahoma by afternoon.

By Friday morning, surface winds return to the south and temperatures climb into the upper 70's to mid 80's. A northern stream trough ejects over the central plains on Friday with the H500 jet maxima passing north of our area. A few models (NAM/GFS) suggest the dryline may advance into portions of W/SW Oklahoma on Friday afternoon, but for now, the model consensus keeps the dryline west of the 100th meridian. Despite this, there is a conditional severe storm risk on Friday afternoon/evening over northwest/western Oklahoma - owing mainly to moderate instability, given meager wind speeds aloft and weak forcing. Hail up to the size of golfballs and severe wind gusts are possible if storm development is realized. Shower and storm chances then spread across the rest of Oklahoma on Friday night with signs of a potential MCS propagating across the area overnight.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The upcoming holiday weekend is forecast to be on the cool-side for Oklahoma standards, with highs in the upper 70's to mid-80's. Shower/storm chances increase Saturday afternoon with precipitation likely by Saturday evening in association with a weak upper trough. Moderate to strong instability could lead to strong to severe storm chances late Saturday. However, organized severe storms could be tough to come by given weak shear.

Rain chances generally decrease Sunday through Tuesday, with the higher probabilities over southeastern Oklahoma and the return of seasonable temperatures.

Thompson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Continues to look like widespread MVFR along with periods of IFR ceilings expected through the forecast period. There remains a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning before we get a break with increasing chances again tomorrow evening. Otherwise, east to northeast winds of mainly 8-12kts across all the terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 58 70 59 / 20 60 90 50 Hobart OK 71 57 73 58 / 20 60 70 40 Wichita Falls TX 74 60 74 59 / 20 70 80 30 Gage OK 71 52 70 54 / 20 60 60 30 Ponca City OK 67 55 69 58 / 0 50 70 60 Durant OK 78 65 74 64 / 10 50 90 70

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.