textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Severe thunderstorms possible through the afternoon/evening/night primarily along I-44.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday morning with an increasing flash flood risk.

- Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An area of very heavy rainfall has occurred across portions of western into central Oklahoma last night and this morning. Rainfall in this band has been between 4 and 11 inches of rain. This has resulted in multiple flash flood warnings as well as several rivers going into flood.

Combination of height falls, embedded shortwaves moving through the area and warm advection will continue to produce a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Although a bit of a lull may occur mid-afternoon, another round of heavy rainfall will develop to our southwest and move into the area late today and overnight. With record PWATs, rainfall rates will continue to very high at least through tonight across much of the Flood Watch. May need to reconfigure the watch based on trends (remove northwest and add to the southeast).

Will also keep an eye on location of effective surface boundary for this afternoon as it will be the focus for stronger convective initiation. There currently is a outflow boundary pushing south through western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. If this becomes the primary boundary, the severe threat will be confined to those areas. However, with the large upper low off to our northwest, if a break in the heavier precip does occur the boundary could lift back northward adding area to the potential for severe weather. Strong winds gusts will be the main hazard along with the flooding rainfall, however the risk of hail and even a tornado or two is not out of the question, especially as winds increase this evening as llj redevelops.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Thursday morning the upper low will begin to open up and move north and east across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, at least through the morning hours, we will still be within the warm advection band from southwest Texas into southwest, central and north-central Oklahoma. This could add another inch or two of rainfall to those areas.

By Thursday afternoon, as the upper low continue to push off to the northeast, a cold front will surge south and southeast across Oklahoma. Additional convective development is expected along this boundary across south central and southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. A few strong, to low end severe storms appear possible.

The front will also create a rather wide range of temperatures from northwest to southeast during the day. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in the northwest to near 90 degrees in the far southeast.

Rain will likely continue Thursday night across the southeast with skies perhaps clearing across the northwest. If this occurs temperatures in the Northwest will drop into the lower 40s by Friday morning with mid/upper 40s and 50s elsewhere. More sun is expected Friday, but in the wake of this strong cold front temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s and low/mid 60s.

Far northwest Oklahoma will drop to near freezing Saturday morning, so a frost is definitely a possibility and will need to continue to monitor for a freeze.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Winds will try to rebound to the south by the afternoon on Saturday, so highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than on Friday, especially with sunny skies expected. Dry conditions and a warming trend into the 70s and 80s are expected through Tuesday as increasing mid-level heights overspreads the southern Plains.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

While we're seeing some clearing from the southwest, additional showers and storms are expected through tonight into tomorrow. Heavy rainfall will lead to periods of reduced visibility. Additionally, MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely persist, especially across northwest Oklahoma. Winds will generally be variable and occasionally gusty due to widespread convection.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 78 48 58 / 100 100 20 0 Hobart OK 65 78 48 60 / 100 80 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 84 53 62 / 80 100 70 0 Gage OK 58 72 42 57 / 90 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 64 78 45 58 / 100 90 10 0 Durant OK 69 89 55 65 / 30 20 50 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ005>031-033>040- 042-044.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ083>085-087-088.