textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Rain is likely across south central/southeastern Oklahoma today with some potential for heavy rainfall.

- Seasonable temperatures continue today.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Area of showers and some drizzle has affected areas generally SE of I-44 throughout the morning into early this afternoon. Most of this activity has been light with occasional areas of heavier rain. Rain chances will continue for the rest of the afternoon into tonight with a gradual shrinkage of area, eventually being confined to parts of south central/southeast OK before chances end early Sunday. Most of the activity is expected to continue to be light with no significant impacts but additional pockets of moderate rain can not be ruled out. Due to the recent rainfall of several inches over this area, any heavier rain may become problematic with localized areas of flooding possible, especially in the usual flood-prone areas.

Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s, especially in those locations that receive sunshine. There is some uncertainty with temperatures in those locations that remain cloudy, especially in those areas that deal with clouds and rain throughout most of the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to vary tonight with lows in the 50s in parts of northern and western OK where less cloud cover is expected to the mid 60s in SE OK where clouds are expected to hang on the longest slowing any cool down.

Patchy fog will also be possible starting late tonight across portions of the fa in areas where light winds, less cloud cover, and saturated boundary layer conditions are able to combine.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Patchy fog will remain possible across parts of the fa through mid- morning Sunday with the best chance in western third or so of the fa where clearer skies, light winds, and saturated boundary layer are expected.

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as the upper high begins to nose into the region. Clouds are expected to continue to decrease Sunday with plenty of sunshine both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s and 80s which are a few degrees warmer than average for this time of year. The nights are still expected to be cool with most locations falling into the 50s both Sunday and Monday night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next week as the westerlies retreat northward with a strengthening low- level thermal ridge and the return to southerly winds.

Temperature spread among bias-corrected probabilistic guidance remains minimal, with even the 10th percentile indicating warm, above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance point to an elongated mid- level ridge (~585-587 dam) as the primary influence of the weather across the Southern Plains. High temperatures toward the end of the week are forecast to climb toward or even exceed 90 deg F.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A persistent stratus shield will offer reduced category at terminals along-east of Interstate 44 through much of the period. Some temporary "improvement" (to VFR) is possible along the western periphery (i.e., KOKC/KLAW/KSPS) prior to sunset before the return of more persistent MVFR to IFR conditions into Sunday morning.

Potential for predawn radiational fog development remains focused further west across Oklahoma and north Texas, where skies are likely to remain clearer and surface winds lighter into Sunday morning. Local vis reductions <1 mile appear possible after 09-10 UTC.

Most terminals are currently expected to transition back to VFR category by 15-17 UTC on Sunday, as fog dissipates and any remaining stratus begins to "scatter out".

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 82 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 62 83 58 84 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 56 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 59 79 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 83 60 86 / 30 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.