textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms on Friday and Saturday evening & night; some risk may linger into Sunday afternoon.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

After several cooler days with nil weather impact, thunderstorm and severe weather chances return across the area today. Water vapor imagery captures a shortwave trough sliding eastward from Kansas into the Ozarks. A trailing surface front currently extends from ~Arnett to Cherokee, moving slowly to the southeast.

As surface heating maximizes (~3-5 PM), and a pocket of cold mid- level temperatures advances overhead, scattered thunderstorms are expected to emerge in vicinity of the slow-moving front, primarily across north-central Oklahoma. Given rather meager moisture quality and depth, yielding large temperature-dewpoint spreads, initial activity will likely favor potential for damaging downburst wind events. The wind risk will likely continue throughout the evening and perhaps maximize as clustered activity intercepts greater boundary layer moisture across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Occasional instances of large hail will also be possible, especially when/where more cellular structures materialize throughout the evening.

Activity should begin to clear south of the Red River/our western- north Texas counties towards the 12 AM Saturday timeframe.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Most of Saturday will be warm and dry ahead of another quick- moving upper system. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper-90s beneath an inverted surface trough across the combined Panhandles, scattered thunderstorm development is expected to ensue (~4-7 PM). How quickly (and how much) activity moves across the 100th meridian into far western Oklahoma remains somewhat uncertain. Morning guidance ranges from several organized evening storms to basically none at all across the aforementioned region. Despite uncertainties, at least low potential highlights for storms (and severe weather) will be maintained prior to sunset across portions of western Oklahoma and western-north Texas. Severe weather hazards in the evening regime would again focus on damaging downburst winds, with any large to very large hail concern requiring a more favorable (supercell) storm mode.

More likely/widespread rain and storm coverage will arrive by the mid to late evening Saturday and continue into Sunday morning. A more notable isentropic regime/low-level jet response is currently progged in advance of an approaching (weak) front. The degree of severe weather risk by this time will be highly dependent on the character of the boundary layer. With at least subtle moisture/theta- e advection through the night, some concern for damaging winds will likely exist, especially if more clustered/linear storm modes emerge. Otherwise, increasing elevated instability fields will foster occasional concern for large hail with stronger and more persistent thunderstorm cores.

Rain and storm coverage should slowly decrease from north-to-south into early Sunday afternoon. Dependent on how far south the surface boundary makes it towards the early evening (controlled by rain/clouds in the morning), then some lingering strong-severe storm risk is possible across the Red River Valley during this time.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Upper ridging then broadens from the southwest CONUS out into the central and southern Plains as we go into early next week. There is a front that the models moves into at least northern Oklahoma on Tuesday with a 850MB thermal ridge to the south of the front. This will make for a very warm day Tuesday, especially across the west and southwest where afternoon temperatures climb to near 100 degrees. This front should wash out rather quickly with south winds returning Wednesday across the west, keeping the hot temperatures entrenched across the west through much of next week with only minimal rain chances.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Scattered strong to severe storms are moving through central into southern Oklahoma this evening and will continue to push southward into north Texas late this evening. Erratic, damaging winds and large hail will be possible with storms, along with lightning. A cold front is pushing southward behind the storms and will bring brief north winds before becoming light and variable through tomorrow morning. Some MVFR ceilings might return overnight at sites across southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas, otherwise VFR conditions will remain through the period.

South winds will return tomorrow with additional chances for storms tomorrow evening, but may occur after this TAF period, thus no mention was given in this TAF issuance to focus on the current round of storms tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 56 86 62 72 / 50 0 80 70 Hobart OK 55 91 62 77 / 30 0 40 40 Wichita Falls TX 60 90 65 84 / 50 0 20 60 Gage OK 51 91 54 72 / 0 20 60 30 Ponca City OK 51 83 58 70 / 10 0 80 50 Durant OK 61 84 66 81 / 60 10 30 90

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.