textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase this morning across western north Texas and will spread eastward through the day. A strong storm or two may produce small hail and gusty winds.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through next weekend across portions of the area. Strong storms may be possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The southern periphery of a mid-level wave will move closer to the southern Plains today, as the larger scale trough moves southward along the California coast. Height falls attendant to the base of the trough will give way to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across far southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas beginning this morning. Precipitation chances will spread eastward and increase through the day. A few of these storms may be strong, with gusty winds and small hail and the primary hazards.

Increasing cloud cover from west to east through the day will keep afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The southern edge of the aforementioned mid-level trough will detach and become more of a shortwave by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Additional large scale ascent associated with this feature will help maintain thunderstorm chances through Wednesday across much of the area. As the shortwave moves into Kansas, the precipitation chances will shift the north. Given the instability, there is a chance that a few storms on Wednesday may be strong enough to produce small hail. With increased cloud cover and rain chances on Wednesday, highs will generally stay in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Height rises are expected Thursday in the wake of the shortwave trough. In turn, this may limit precipitation chances through the latter half of the day. Cloud cover will stick around during the morning and will slowly clear out during the afternoon. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Another weak shortwave will move across the southern Plains Friday, which will provide enough lift for thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday (from west to east). Beyond Friday, there is a little more uncertainty regarding the pattern across the southern Plains. The larger scale trough across the western US is expected to lift into northern portions of the US. Across our area, there may be weak mid- level perturbations which will promote additional thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Other model solutions would suggest mid- level ridging, which promotes dry and warmer weather. For now, will keep the mention of thunderstorms through the weekend until models are in better agreement.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Mostly dry conditions are expected through the overnight period, with shower and storm chances then expected to increase Tuesday morning but especially during the afternoon into Tuesday night. Activity will be scattered, with chances for storms to pop-up just about anywhere through the afternoon, so PROB30 was included at all sites during the afternoon, continuing into the evening at KCSM/KLAW/KSPS where additional storms may move in from the west. Winds will continue from the south or southeast through the period, except in the vicinity of thunderstorm outflow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 84 64 78 64 / 40 60 70 70 Hobart OK 83 61 79 61 / 50 90 50 60 Wichita Falls TX 83 63 81 63 / 70 90 40 40 Gage OK 83 58 76 59 / 40 80 80 60 Ponca City OK 84 63 81 64 / 10 20 70 70 Durant OK 85 68 80 67 / 30 70 100 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.