textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Severe storms, with all hazards possible, are expected Friday afternoon and Friday night.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will occur over western Oklahoma and western north Texas today and Friday.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend with a freeze possible Sunday morning (western and northern Oklahoma).

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Plains today. Stronger southwesterly flow within the sub-tropical jet will overspread the southern Plains. Both of these features will begin to become in faze with one another through the day. At the surface, a dryline will mix eastward through the day, while a strong cold front will sweep through the Plains. As of right now, it doesn't appear as though the front will begin making its way into Oklahoma until the 21Z Friday to 00Z Saturday timeframe. The aforementioned dryline and cold front will intersect across northwestern Oklahoma, creating a triple point. This zone of enhanced vorticity will be the primary focal point for storm development this afternoon. The open warm sector east of the triple point will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Instability will exceed 3000 J/kg by the time storms begin to initiate, in addition to 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear.

There is some uncertainty with how far south the dryline will convect. Current thinking is that the best chance for initial storm development will be along the dryline north of I-40, to the triple point in Kansas. Any storms that do develop in this environment will favor all severe hazards. Further to the south, there is less certainty on if storms will develop along the dryline. If storms can form, they will be in an environment characterized by a Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) of 3-5. This environment would support supercells capable of producing all hazards. Again, will need to monitor trends in the environment south of I-40 for initial convection, especially low-level inhibition (CAP) due to cloud cover and lack of broader large scale ascent.

For locations west of the dryline, near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected. Gusty southwest winds will get RH values down in to the teens through western north Texas. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 9 PM Friday.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The aforementioned strong cold front will continue to push southward through the evening hours into Saturday morning. Storms are eventually expected to get undercut from the cold front, and transition into more of a large hail and damaging wind threat into the morning. Winds behind the cold front are expected to be gusty. Winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph are expected, at least across the western half of the area through Saturday morning. Temperatures through the weekend will be much cooler and generally in the 60s for much of the area. The overnight lows, especially on Sunday morning, will be quite cold. In fact, most of us will get down into the 30s Sunday morning. If trends continue to come in colder Sunday morning, freeze-related products will likely be needed.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected across northern and western portions of the area through the weekend.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement with a mid-level ridge dominating the Plains through most of the long term. Overall, mainly dry conditions are expected at least through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the 70s. A low amplitude shortwave trough is expected move across portions of Texas/southern Oklahoma on Monday with height rises and ridging in the wake of this feature on Tuesday. This will result in low rain chances across mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas on Monday with mainly dry conditions on Tuesday.

Confidence is beginning to increase in our next major system arriving Thursday with storm potential ramping back up during this timeframe. This will be a day to keep an eye out for in the coming days.

Bunker

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

While intervals of lowered category remain forecast across the region, overall confidence in space/time details has decreased since the prior update.

Generally ~4-5 kft ceilings are beginning to develop across Oklahoma at daybreak, with a fetch of MVFR-level cigs advancing northward across north-central Texas. While this and other developing areas of lower stratus remain forecast, the duration of impact appears more limited throughout Friday morning.

A strong front and the potential for scattered convection remain a focus by Friday afternoon into night, especially across northern and central Oklahoma. Strong winds (>40 knots) are possible both near thunderstorms (variable direction) and behind the front (northerly direction).

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 45 64 39 / 40 80 0 0 Hobart OK 88 44 68 36 / 30 50 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 85 49 67 38 / 20 70 10 0 Gage OK 90 37 66 36 / 30 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 82 42 63 37 / 60 90 0 0 Durant OK 82 51 65 40 / 10 80 30 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>086.