textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- A few isolated showers and storms are possible today across southeast/south central Oklahoma.

- Storm chances will increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning.

- Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through this week with a risk for heat related illnesses.

UPDATE

Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Quick near-term update to include 15-20% PoPs for isolated thunderstorms over northern and southeastern Oklahoma.

Current radar/satellite shows localized convective initiation occurring from roughly Clinton/Weatherford to Medford along a line of towering cumulus. This is consistent with high resolution models which show an isolated/brief storm or two within this area late this afternoon/early evening. Mesoanalysis shows a pretty unstable environment (2000-3000 j/kg SBCAPE) with modest shear (30 kt effective layer) over far northern Oklahoma, so the overall severe weather threat will be low, but an isolated instance of a downburst is not impossible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Winds are out of the southwest along and west of I-35 as of the noon hour. This is tracking with surface temperatures warming a degree or two faster than NBM/official guidance, which is unsurprising in that regime. Parts of central and southern Oklahoma stand a good chance of seeing their first 100-degree day of 2026.

Convection should be pretty limited in scope today given the lack of cumulus development to this point. Near-term guidance suggests that we will eventually see weak convection in south central/southeast Oklahoma where surface winds will remain a little more backed and dewpoints stand a better chance of holding in the low-to-mid 70s. Dry mid-levels and hot boundary layers will promote 1,600+ J/kg of DCAPE, so wouldn't be surprised to see downbursts even with small cores.

Winds remain southwesterly tonight. NBM suggests low temperatures near 80 degrees, and with the breeze remaining from that direction I'd be hard-pressed to say that it will be wrong.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Tomorrow will be almost as hot as today along and south of an advancing cold front. There's a weak signal for showers just before daybreak along the front in north central Oklahoma with several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. In all likelihood, that activity will taper off during the morning hours and lead the boundary to stall there. That boundary is a potential focusing mechanism for further convection in the afternoon and evening hours across northern and western Oklahoma. A moist layer in the mid-levels may prevent ginormous DCAPE values from being realized, but a low-end downburst threat will persist. Otherwise, heat continues to be the story with a pretty good chance that we will need Heat Advisories near and just south of the front.

A more organized round of storms is probable across the Central Plains late tomorrow evening with near-easterly surface winds and a decent reservoir of instability to work with. A reasonable expectation would be that storms arrive into northwest Oklahoma around 9:00 pm. Whether this is a cluster, organized MCS, or just decaying updrafts remains to be seen. The primary concerns would be damaging winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Uncertainty increases on Friday given the potential for modulation of the frontal boundary. However, that will be the focusing point for both heat risk and storm potential along and south of it - perhaps from north central Oklahoma toward the I-40 corridor.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday across much of the area. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, however, with increasing surface dewpoints, afternoon heat indices will still be in the 100s. Mid-level ridge will shift to the north across the central and high Plains into next week, helping to keep temperatures near average across the southern Plains. As of right now, the overall synoptic pattern next week will support above average temperatures and below average precipitation.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon across central and south central Oklahoma, but chances are too low for mention in the TAFs. Additional showers and storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma later tonight for which prob30s have been included. Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of erratic and gusty winds and lightning. Winds will show a typical diurnal pattern with afternoon veering and breeziness.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 79 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 101 72 99 / 20 10 40 10 Ponca City OK 78 99 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 Durant OK 80 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-013-020-026- 032.

TX...None.