textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 146 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues into next week.

- Fire weather remains a concern given hot temperatures and ongoing drought/very dry fuels.

- Very low chance for rain/storms on Saturday and Sunday across southeast Oklahoma, but otherwise dry into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

We open up the Labor Day Holiday Weekend with, you guessed it, another hot and humid day! Our area will remain buried beneath a high-amplitude upper ridge, with upper-90s to mid-100s highs expected across the region (hottest southwest). A residual deep moisture plume will keep heat indices running a few degrees warmer than ambient conditions, with >105 deg F conditions most likely across the Red River Valley, and along/east of the I-44/35 corridors this afternoon and evening. A Heat Advisory remains in place for these areas from 12 PM to 7 PM.

While our forecast still calls for dry conditions today, with scattered diurnal cumulus across central and southeastern Oklahoma, we are keeping an eye on very low (~10%) chances for a few showers/storms near the far northwest and southeast corners of Oklahoma. The latter area looks to have relatively higher odds, associated with a westward-moving (weak) mid-level system across east Texas in the deeper moisture plume. The most concerning aspect of this activity would likely be the potential for sporadic lightning strikes, with very little accumulated rainfall.

While the fire weather category will remain "low" through the afternoon and evening today, with generally >20% relative humidity and modest winds, we will continue to highlight that problematic wildfire ignitions are possible given fuel dryness. This message is likely to remain until we can get a wetting rainfall event or two over the coming weeks.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Not much of a surprise at this point, but hot/humid and mostly dry weather rolls on for much of the upcoming holiday weekend. Maximum afternoon heat indices of >105 deg F hang around on Sunday and Monday, when additional heat headlines are likely, especially for the eastern two-thirds of the area.

We will once again monitor very low (<20%) potential for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across southeastern Oklahoma during the day on Sunday, as another weak ("backdoor") system/front approaches this area. The most significant impact would be the potential for lightning for those engaging in outdoor activities.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

While next week still looks to be dominated by a continued hot and dry pattern, especially on Tuesday and most of Wednesday, a pathway for more changeable conditions, including at least low chances for precipitation, is coming into better view into the late week.

This comes as a strong upper system rounds the periphery of the upper ridge into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak trailing front looks to slide southeastward across the Plains during this time. The greatest uncertainty remains 1.) how strong the resultant front is (i.e., able to help foster precipitative chance?), and 2.) how far south the front makes it before dissipating. For now, we maintain at least low rain/storm chances from Wednesday night into Thursday across the northern half of Oklahoma. Not seeing much potential for a significant cool down, though daytime highs may run a few degrees below those early in the week.

Even greater uncertainty exists beyond the end of the period (12th onward), though most ensemble solutions show the upper ridge remaining the dominant regional synoptic feature during this time.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR category will prevail during the upcoming valid period. Surface winds are forecast to back into the afternoon then veer near and after sunset, while containing generally modest magnitudes (6-10 kts). Diurnal cumulus development is once again expected during the early afternoon, focused along and east of the Interstate 44 corridor.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 10 0 Hobart OK 102 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 102 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 100 75 100 75 / 10 10 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.