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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY, with highs near 105 degrees and heat indices 105 to 115 degrees.

- Heat advisory Wednesday afternoon across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Dangerous heat is expected this afternoon as a mid-level ridge begins to settle into the southern Plains. Heat indices of 105-110F will be possible across the entire area, with heat indices over 110F across the eastern half of the area. A weak front will push in today, providing very little relief. There is a low chance for isolated showers and storms across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Overnight lows will be very similar to yesterdays, mainly upper 70s to low 80s.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

We will notice a cooler day Wednesday behind the aforementioned frontal boundary. Highs behind the front will generally be in the mid 90s, whereas temperatures ahead of the boundary will be in the triple digits. Heat indices of 100-105 F are expected across far southern Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. There is a very low (10%) chance for an isolated shower/storm to develop along the boundary Wednesday afternoon. A heat advisory has been issued for these locations through Wednesday evening.

Southerly winds will return on Thursday, with the eastern half of the area getting into the upper 90s, and the western half getting into the triple digits. Heat headlines will likely be added as we get closer to Thursday.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A weak shortwave will round the northern portion of the upper ridge on Friday, helping send a front into the area. Models are still not in great agreement on precipitation chances with the front, but at least isolated showers and storms appear probable for at least portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening. Upper ridging will then strengthen further over the region this weekend into early next week, bringing a return of areawide triple digit heat and lowering precipitation chances to near zero through the remainder of the long term period.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail. Wind direction will be somewhat variable this afternoon (rotating around northerly) before becoming more easterly to southeasterly by this evening.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 102 77 102 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 74 100 74 103 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 74 91 71 92 / 0 0 20 10 Durant OK 80 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010- 014>017-021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008- 011>013-018>020-024>026-028>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ033>039- 043>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.


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