textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Mostly dry with a warming trend this coming week.

- Sprinkles or light showers possible in the north overnight.

- Low precipitation chances return late week into next weekend, mainly western/northwestern OK.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Despite the rather quiet weather pattern, there are still a couple of things to talk about. First, many models continue to show some low QPF across the northwest and north overnight in association with some isentropic lift developing on the 315K isentropic surface as well as the potential of a shortwave approaching in the southwesterly flow aloft. We did end up with some elevated showers and last night and early this morning even though the isentropic signal was not as strong. No mesonet stations reported measurable rainfall so this was primarily virga or sprinkles this morning. With a slightly better configuration for isentropic lift, we do expect some elevated showers again tonight, but showers being elevated and dry low-level air helping to evaporate falling precipitation, again expect it will generally be virga and/or sprinkles, although small showers can't be ruled out. Will keep the measurable precipitation chances generally less than 20 percent, but add the mention of sprinkles.

Also as was the case yesterday, NBM is initializing/forecasting dewpoints too high. Will be lowering dewpoints tonight (and into Wednesday).

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Some low potential for virga/sprinkles across northern Oklahoma continues into Wednesday with a shortwave moving slowly through Kansas, and have some low POPs in this area. Otherwise after that shortwave moves east, the upper ridge builds more strongly into the southern and central Plains. By late Wednesday afternoon, the 588 dm 500 mb contour has built into at least western Oklahoma and western north Texas. This will allow warmer temperatures to build in tomorrow and Wednesday and keep rain chances out of the area Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The upper ridge axis will shift eastward through next weekend as a large trough across the western US makes slow progress closer to the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms could make it into western parts of the area on Saturday but the majority of this activity will be focused to our west across NM into the panhandles.

Troughing is then forecasted to weaken and lift northward later in the weekend with model disagreement increasing thereafter on whether we see ridging return to the region or additional troughing develop across the southwest US. Either way, it appears the above normal temperatures will continue at least into early next week with highs in the 70s and 80s across the area.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Widespread elevated showers are bringing in ceilings in the 15,000-20,000 foot range, but little to no precipitation is expected to reach the ground. VFR conditions continue. Winds will be out of the south again tomorrow, though a little weaker than today.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 51 72 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 51 73 54 78 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 53 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 49 72 53 79 / 10 10 20 0 Ponca City OK 50 72 51 76 / 0 10 10 0 Durant OK 50 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.