textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 404 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 - Severe weather potential this afternoon through tonight mainly east of I-35.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible across western Oklahoma & western-north Texas this afternoon which will be returning to northwest Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.

- Severe weather potential returns next Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1228 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Ascent in the mid-levels will continue to produce scattered showers & strong thunderstorms becoming more numerous as the afternoon progresses into the evening with an increasing severe risk as they start becoming more surface-based with surface boundaries moving in. It will also be windy this afternoon from a tightening pressure gradient enhanced by mixing into a strong low-level jet.

The main upper trough axis of this system remains stretched along the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies pushing a surface low with cold front currently stretched across the Central High Plains/Western Kansas. Also down at the surface is an advancing dryline stretched across the central OK & TX Panhandles. Our forecast area remains in the moist moderately unstable and strongly sheared air well east of the dryline. Warm advection/isentropic upglide will continue to initiate some scattered elevated convection into the afternoon enhanced by a persisting strong low-level jet with its maxima centered over all of central Oklahoma. Some of these elevated-based storms could go severe in the afternoon with increasing instability/MUCAPE values in the strongly sheared environment. Also can't rule out surface-based storms firing up before the arrival of surface boundary as strong mixing in the boundary layer could break a weak mid-level cap based on forecast soundings. All severe hazards (large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornados) will be possible in the severe risk area across the eastern 2/3rds of our forecast area with the highest tornado risk across southeast Oklahoma. The aforementioned dryline will be the first of two surface boundaries expected to be punching into our western CWA by mid-afternoon eventually overtaken later tonight by the cold front starting its push into northwest Oklahoma during the evening hours. Expecting the dryline to advance into west-central Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas toward the early evening hours. There will be risks on both sides of the dryline, with fire weather to the west and severe convection to the east. Gusty south shifting southwestern winds and very low afternoon RH values behind the dryline will increase the fire danger up to a Critical Risk during the afternoon especially in those areas that received very little to no prior rainfall from last night. Any cluster of storms east of the dryline is expected to develop more liner along the cold front as it overtakes the dryline making its push across our area. Organized storms will make its final round along the cold across most of our area keeping the severe risk along it through tonight. The heaviest rainfall is expected across southeast Oklahoma where an additional hazard for localized flooding will be in place. The colder air mass behind the front will start surging into northern Oklahoma where temperatures will be falling into the 30s to near freezing across northwest Oklahoma.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1228 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

By sunrise Saturday expecting the cold front to be pushing through our far southeastern CWA with the severe risk ending there. Models in agreement with the aforementioned upper trough amplifying with it's upper low closing and cutting off from the subtropical jet flow retrograding to the Pacific over Southern California & the Baja Peninsula. A few shortwave disturbances in the mid-levels propagating downstream from this system moving across Texas could pass over the frontal boundary making it north of the Red River. As a result will keep POPs in place across our southern CWA through Saturday afternoon with a potential for elevated rain and/or weak convection staying below severe. Otherwise cooler with more seasonably normal temperatures on Saturday afternoon. High surface pressure building in Saturday night with strong radiational cooling setting up with widespread 30s lows. Southerly winds gradually returning Sunday and unseasonably warmer with afternoon highs in the 80s. The return of very dry air across the panhandles and gusty southwest winds will elevate fire weather conditions across our far western CWA on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Precipitation chances will start to increase early next week (initially around the Red River Valley) as a cut-off low is forecast to track east through central Texas. Rain and storm chances peak areawide on Tuesday including a risk for severe storms. Details on timing, areas, and potential hazards remain uncertain, so make sure to check back for future updates.

The upper low will continue to meander eastward, allowing precip chances to decrease mid to late week.

Day

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 404 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Mainly VFR and MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across portions of OK and north TX along and east of a dryline. Additional storms will be possible later this evening into Saturday morning as a cold front moves across the area. Shower/storm chances could linger throughout the day Saturday along the Red River (mainly KDUA and KSPS). Strong, variable winds and hail will be possible with some of the storms into early Saturday. Winds will shift to the N and NW behind the cold front later tonight into early Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 42 59 37 71 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 39 61 34 72 / 0 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 46 64 39 72 / 20 40 10 0 Gage OK 32 59 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 37 59 33 71 / 40 0 0 0 Durant OK 52 67 43 71 / 70 60 30 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.