textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 450 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will persist across much of the area until after sundown. - Cooler seasonably normal temperatures and improving fire conditions are expected Friday into the weekend.

- Dry conditions and unseasonably warmer temperatures could bring fire weather conditions back to the area by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Front verifying faster than short-term guidance. Therefore, we have updated hourly forecast grids for temperature, dewpoint temperature, wind, and sky cover. Wind gusts are expected to diminish with sunset and sustained north/northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph are expected tonight. A wind shift to the northeast is anticipated over southern Oklahoma and western north Texas as the surface high begins to influence the area. Fire weather conditions will improve over the next few hours with elevated risk becoming low by about 7 PM.

Thompson

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1219 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Potentially dangerous fire weather will be our concern for this afternoon until sundown with colder air coming through tonight.

A surface low pressure system tracking across the Central Plains into the Midwest will keep our surface winds breezy this afternoon out of the west gradually shifting northwest ahead of an approaching cold front boundary. The tightening pressure gradient will keep wind speeds sustained 20-25 mph while vertically mixing well to 850 mb flow will result in gusts 30-35 mph through the afternoon. A dryline remains stretched across southeast Oklahoma with very dry air advecting behind it originating off the Southern High Plains/ Panhandles. Unseasonably warmer temperatures will persist through this afternoon before the cold front passage tonight. This will all increase fire weather conditions this afternoon as RH values plunge increasing the fire danger west of the dryline with a Critical to Near Critical risk with a Red Flag Warning in effect until shortly after sundown when RH's recover/rise. By this evening as the fire danger lowers the aforementioned cold front starts pushing into our northern CWA veering our northwest winds out of the north. Although milder Pacific air aloft there will be shallow colder Canadian air coming through behind this front with the surface high still expected to be over the Alberta Province. Temperatures will drop subfreezing tonight across all but southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas which may stay just above freezing. Northerly winds at 5-10 mph may produce a wind chill tonight until going near calm toward sunrise. As far as deviations from NBM, have gone drier with this afternoons dewpoints reverting to our previous forecast and pre- frontal windier than NBM default using the 90th percentile winds. NBM is still warm in handing the colder air mass coming through tonight so used the cooler CONSMOS guidance for tonight's MinT.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1219 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Elongated high surface pressure down the Northern & Central Plains will be settling into our area for Friday gradually shifting light northerly winds out of the east. Much cooler afternoon but seasonably normal with highs in 50s. NBM still a bit warm so used the CONSMOS for Fridays MaxT. An upper trough digging across the Central High Plains could produce light rain/snow mix POPs on Friday afternoon through overnight near the Kansas/Oklahoma borders although for now likely to stay north of the state line. High pressure building a bit stronger on Saturday backing winds northerly and breezy. Otherwise, temperatures Friday will be a repeater for Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Near-average temperatures will persist into Sunday and Monday as surface high to our north maintains northerly flow over the region. A moderating trend is then forecast for Tuesday as winds become southerly and ridging builds in from the west. These gusty south winds and dry air could combine to bring a return of fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday for at least parts of the area. No significant precipitation chances appear on the horizon for the next 7-10 days.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The breezy wind will begin to diminish this evening with winds continuing to veer from westerly to northwesterly to northerly through the evening, and then more easterly on Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected in general, although low visibility in smoke and smoke aloft will be possible in localized areas near and downwind of wildfires.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 30 53 33 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 53 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 35 58 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 24 51 21 51 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 25 47 28 51 / 0 10 10 0 Durant OK 37 59 42 59 / 0 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>047-050- 051.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.