textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Hot & muggy conditions expected again this afternoon and evening, with heat indices near and above 100-110 degrees, especially across northern and north central Oklahoma.

- Strong to severe storms this evening and overnight across the area with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary hazards. - Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns this weekend, especially where recent higher amounts of rain has already fallen.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the wake of this morning's shower and storm activity, a MCV developed just north of I-40 in west central Oklahoma and is moving eastward through this afternoon. If this weak MCV can persist eastward through the afternoon hours across central into east central Oklahoma, temperatures will warm and instability will increase with low chances for an isolated shower or storm to develop. The best chances for this to occur would be across east central Oklahoma.

Outside of the MCV, skies have cleared elsewhere across most of the area this morning with scattered to broken cumulus likely to develop through the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the 90s today and with dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s, humid conditions will persist and widespread heat indices of 100 to 106 degrees will be possible. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through 7 PM across portions of northern and north central Oklahoma.

An upper shortwave across the Northern Plains will drive the surface low near the Colorado/Kansas border southward. An associated cold front that is currently draped from roughly Goodland northeast towards Omaha. This front will push southward late this evening across Kansas and towards northern Oklahoma and bring increasing rain and storm chances. Isolated storms may initially develop along the front in Kansas and portions of northern Oklahoma this evening with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Despite the tornado potential being very low, there is a nonzero chance that a storm initially latched onto the front could experience enough low-level shear along the boundary to produce a tornado. This potential will be mostly confined to Kansas, but will also exist across northern Oklahoma. As the front continues to push southward overnight, the low-level jet will increase and storms will likely grow upscale with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Towards the early morning hours Sunday, the cold front will likely race ahead of the storms as they begin to lose severity with gusty winds and small hail as the primary concern as the activity decays.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Expect a cooler and cloudy post-frontal conditions Sunday with highs in the 70s. The cold front may still be vacating far southern Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday morning, which means lingering showers and storms are possible. Depending on where the front is situated by the afternoon hours, there may be a few strong to severe storms that develop along the surface front. Current forecast thoughts are that the front will be just south of the Red River and keep most of the stronger storms to our south, closer to DFW area.

A weak shortwave in the westerly flow aloft, coupled with ample moisture in the atmospheric column, will give way to scattered showers to develop in the moist stable post-frontal airmass across central into southern Oklahoma. A few embedded rumbles of thunder due to very weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out.

By Monday northwesterly flow will persist aloft, while the surface high in the wake of the front will push into the Arklatex region and keep temperatures on the cooler side for the start of the work week. Highs will be below normal in the 70s to lower 80s. Mostly dry conditions Monday with only a slight chance for some lingering showers across portions of far southern Oklahoma into western north Texas during the morning hours.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After another cool morning Tuesday a quick warming trend is expected with highs once again in the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday and windy and hot by Wednesday with highs climbing above 100 degrees along and north of I-44. Probably a return of heat headlines by this time as well. Hopefully this extreme heat will be rather short-lived as models show another front and additional rain chances as we go toward the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. A cold front is expected to begin to move into far NW OK early this evening then continue to move south across the area overnight into Sunday causing winds to shift to the N and NE. Showers/storms will be possible along and north of the front tonight into Sunday. Some of the storms could produce strong, variable wind gusts and hail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 75 61 78 / 100 50 20 0 Hobart OK 66 77 61 80 / 80 60 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 71 83 64 81 / 30 60 40 20 Gage OK 60 75 57 79 / 90 40 10 10 Ponca City OK 66 76 59 79 / 100 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 83 67 80 / 60 90 50 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 018>020.

TX...None.