textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms on Friday and Saturday evening & night.

- Heat returns on Saturday and again toward the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

After a chilly start this morning, warmer and dry weather is ongoing this afternoon. A weakening/departing surface high is being replaced by a lee cyclone to our northwest, yielding a modest west- southwesterly breeze. Coupled with a warmer low-level airmass and clear skies, near-average temperatures (mid to upper-70s) are expected today.

The overlap of warm temperatures, relative humidity ~20% and breezy winds will likely yield periods of elevated fire weather conditions across far western-northwestern Oklahoma through the mid-evening. While this forecast combination looks to fall on the lower margins of more classic fire weather concern, until it rains again across the aforementioned area, fuels will remain critically susceptible. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect until 8 PM this evening.

The leading edge of a modified Gulf airmass looks to make its way into the area overnight, as a southerly breeze is maintained. This will allow temperatures to run 10-15 degrees warmer compared to this morning.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Increasing concern for bouts of thunderstorm activity, including some potential for strong-severe storms, remains the main weather story as we head into the weekend.

On Friday, a fast-moving/low-amplitude upper trough will advance out across portions of the Central Plains, pushing a trailing surface front into portions of northern and central Oklahoma by the early evening. Strong surface heating in vicinity of this feature, with surface temperatures warming to near 90 degrees, should help erode convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to ensue in vicinity of the front/wind shift, with activity spreading south and eastward throughout the evening.

Despite rather meager moisture return, cold mid-level temperatures atop a very hot boundary layer should contribute to modest instability build. Combined with strong mid-tropospheric flow/shear, strong-severe thunderstorms are possible. Concern looks to focus on damaging downburst wind events, though a few more organized thunderstorms with a large hail risk will also be possible early in the evening.

Another northwest flow trough looks to approach towards Saturday evening, with renewed chances for rain and thunderstorms across the area into Saturday night/Sunday morning. This includes some potential for additional strong-severe storms, pending details on the mesoscale environment by this time. The main uncertainty in this regard is just how far north rich moisture advances through the evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary severe risks if this potential materializes.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Sunday looks like it could be a cloudy and cooler one for much of the area in the immediate postfrontal regime. Lingering rain chances will exist near and just behind the front, especially early in the day.

A broader pattern shift begins on Monday and lasts through the middle of the week as ridging amplifies to the west of the area. The jet will reside to the north and east of the southern Plains, making one or more of those days (especially Tuesday) primed for potential record-setting heat. The other days will be merely very warm instead of hot. Rain chances shouldn't be altogether dismissed, especially in the eastern part of the forecast area, but don't look impressive at the moment.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mostly clear skies should persist at most sites into tomorrow morning. Winds will become southerly this evening, veering Friday morning and becoming southwesterly. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift and a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but this will impact most sites after the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 55 84 57 85 / 0 40 60 0 Hobart OK 54 89 56 90 / 0 20 40 10 Wichita Falls TX 55 86 59 89 / 0 0 30 10 Gage OK 51 85 48 89 / 0 10 0 20 Ponca City OK 54 83 50 83 / 0 50 20 10 Durant OK 54 80 61 84 / 0 0 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.