textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for light rain showers to return to southeast Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Winter precipitation is likely Friday through Sunday, with hazardous travel impacts expected.

- There is a high (>90%) chance for very cold temperatures across the area Saturday and Sunday, with wind chills below 0F likely.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1205 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

This afternoon will be breezy and mild (temperatures in the 50s). An overnight front will bring in cooler temperatures (Monday night lows of near 20 degrees in northwest Oklahoma to near freezing along the I-44 corridor) and breezy north winds behind it. Warm advection ahead of the front will allow for 20-40% chance of light showers in southeast Oklahoma toward morning.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1205 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Wednesday and Thursday will be mild with high temperatures in the 50s. Winds will initially be breezy behind the cold front Wednesday morning, then become light and somewhat variable after that.

A front will move in Thursday night, resulting in gusty north winds and increasing precipitation chances.

Day

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Update: As model guidance continues to point to a significant winter weather event this weekend, we're starting to look at probabilities of higher snowfall totals. Meanwhile, freezing rain potential continues to seem more confined to the Red River area.

Synoptic discussion below remains valid. Have updated probabilities and added some detail about uncertainties in the what we know and what we are keeping an eye on sections.

Discussion:

A broad shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity will aid in continuous cold air advection across the southern Plains through much of the long term. Confidence is very high that our next system will continue to bring in much colder air Friday into the weekend, with winter precipitation likely. The overall synoptic pattern will feature a closed low off the Pacific that is expected to become a more open wave as it moves closer to the southern Plains. Zonal upper level flow ahead of this wave will foster continuous isentropic ascent, which will allow for more widespread precipitation across the area. The potential for an impactful winter weather event is increasing across the entire area. Although this event is still several days out, models are beginning to become more aligned with one another. Below is additional information on the event.

What we know:

- Significant widespread snow is likely Friday in the weekend. Ensemble probabilities are showing 60-80% chance of 6+ inch snow over a broad swath of Oklahoma and 30-50% chance of 12+ inch bands somewhere in Oklahoma (highest along the I-40 corridor).

- Most guidance has a wintry mix (including freezing rain) across the southern third of the area initially, transitioning to snow through the remainder of the event. - Dangerously cold temperatures are expected Saturday morning and Sunday morning, with lows generally in the single digits to near 0F. Widespread wind chills below 0F are likely across much of the area both mornings.

- High confidence that temperatures will remain well below freezing Saturday afternoon, which will have an impact on winter precipitation.

What we are keeping an eye on:

- Temperatures: Temperatures aloft and at the surface initially will play a huge role on precipitation type during the early part of this event before everything transitions to snow.

- Exact amounts of each precipitation type: Snowfall/sleet/ice amounts will be heavily dependent on how the overall system evolves leading up to the event. One big question is whether we get a strong enough push of cold air to cut off precipitation early (which would limit snowfall amounts, especially in the north).

Day / Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Terminal KDUA will remain in a VFR category at least through 02Z, after which lower ceiling stratus will be moving into southeast Oklahoma degrading that terminal to a MVFR category through 17Z. There is also a PROB30 for -RA at terminal KDUA from 09-12Z. Otherwise all our remaining terminals are expected to remain in a VFR category through the forecast period with only a caveat of "near" MVFR category at terminal KSPS around 04Z.

Surface winds will remain southerly at 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts through 00Z, after which the gusts should subside. A cold front will also pushing across most of our terminals between 11-14Z and perhaps approaching terminal KDUA by the end of the forecast period. Southerly surface winds will shift northerly behind the frontal boundary with wind speeds around 10 kts. A strong low- level jet orientated southwest to northeast will increase tonight across most of our terminals which could produce low-level wind shear conditions of 35-40 kts starting by 06Z. All terminals could be impacted by the low-level wind shear tonight until the frontal boundary arrival except for KCSM & KWWR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 32 52 29 49 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 27 55 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 38 59 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 23 52 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 26 51 24 47 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 40 60 36 56 / 40 30 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.