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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Hot, muggy, and breezy conditions to continue this week.

- Excessive heating will return on Independence day with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees in some areas.

- A wetter trend beginning Saturday night into early next week with best chances on Sunday night. This will bring some relief from the excessive heat.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A fairly persistent forecast of yesterday's for today with hot, breezy, and muggy conditions with temperatures just above seasonably normal for the 1st of July. Did go warmer than NBM mainly for our southwestern CWA using the CONSShort for this afternoons MaxT. The Southern Plains remains between two upper system flows with a deep amplitude trough across the entire Western U.S. and a closed upper high ridge across the Southeastern U.S. At the surface an elongated area of low pressure lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain a tight pressure gradient across our area maintaining breezy south winds while late morning mixing to 850 mb flow will increase gusts 25-30 mph. Dense high cloudiness coming up from Old Mexico through West Texas, much of it Cirrus blow-off will dirtying up the ridge flowing into our area keeping skies mostly cloudy especially across our western CWA with intermittent periods of afternoon sun.

We may see another severe storm complex initiate late this afternoon on the Southern High Plains with a series of mid-level short-waves expelled downstream from the trough over and interacting with a surface dryline stretched lee of the New Mexico Rockies. For now much of this convective activity is expected to remain just west of our CWA out on the panhandles. However, will need to monitor subsequent CAMs runs should their solutions change. Can't rule out a few of these storms tracking into northwest Oklahoma toward late evening and decaying in less unstable air perhaps producing some gusty winds. As result will have low storm POPs in far northwest Oklahoma late this evening but no severe risk.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Thursday & Friday mornings we will still be close to breaking or tying warmest minimum temperature daily records and based on the current forecast could tie at Oklahoma City on Thursday morning. A persistent forecast for Thursday again going slightly warmer than NBM across our southwest CWA using the CONSRaw. No storm POPs in our CWA for late Thursday although there still could be some convective activity out on the Southern High Plains. Still seeing a pattern chance on Friday that may affect our weekend. Pressure heights will be rising on Friday over our area as the upper trough out west starts breaking down with ridging while expanding eastward. As a result we will start trending hotter on Friday especially our western CWA with highs reaching triple digits.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

An upper ridge continues building over much of the southern half of the country this weekend with our 2-day heating trend peaking on Saturday/Independence Day. NBM may be a bit too warm with Saturdays temperatures and may need to be adjusted but will still likely see another day of triple digit plus heat indices and a potential Heat Advisory due to excessive heating across parts of our area until sundown. Expecting the surface isobars to weaken a bit by Saturday with only a very weak low-level jet overhead. As a result it's not expected to be very windy on Independence Day which should not spoil any festivities at dusk. Rain/storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma late Saturday but most likely after midnight. With the main jet stream stretched across the northern half of the country, a disturbance moving across the Northern & Central Plains may push a cold front into Kansas then stalling out. This system could bring storms into northern Oklahoma late Saturday night into Sunday. The upper ridge may start breaking down in spots on Sunday through Tuesday with embedded shortwaves initiating thunderstorm activity. Although we have storm POPs every day Sunday into early next week, the best timing for the most widespread chances will be Sunday night. This trend to a wetter pattern on Sunday will bring relief from Saturdays excessive heating.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Broken high clouds and gusty southerly winds are expected today. There is a very low chance of a shower or thunderstorm that reaches northwest Oklahoma late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Given the high uncertainty, have left out a PROB30 at KWWR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 95 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 98 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 94 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 94 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.