textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Hot, muggy, and breezy conditions to continue this week.

- Excessive heating will return on Independence day with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees in some areas.

- A wetter trend beginning Saturday night into early next week with best chances on Sunday night. This will bring some relief from the excessive heat.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Heat continues to be the main story today. Heat indices will range from the mid to upper 90s across northern and central Oklahoma to near 100 along the Red River. A plume of moisture continues to generate cloud cover into western Oklahoma, keeping temperatures a bit cooler there (plus, the shade helps in itself). Additionally, breezy winds will help keep wetbulb globe temperatures down. The exception will be southeast Oklahoma where heat indices get to near 105 under mostly sunny skies and light winds, potentially bringing WBGT into the high category. For those looking at model guidance (especially NBM), there's been a pretty consistent high bias in MaxT and low bias in Td over the last few days that we've corrected for in our forecast.

Storms will make another run at western Oklahoma late tonight, though nearly all the CAMs kill them off before they cross the border. Going with ~10% chance PoPs for our far western counties.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Heat continues into Thursday and Friday, with much the same pattern as the near term. We do see heat indices tick up slightly each day, and it's worth noting the cloud cover shifts slightly eastward each day (by Friday, northwest Oklahoma should be mostly sunny and southeast Oklahoma cloudy). Winds also start to gradually drop off over the next few days, which will allow for some higher WBGTs. As mentioned in the near term, model biases in the temperatures and dewpoints have been corrected for.

With abundant moisture in place, we may see some scattered summertime thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma Thursday and Friday afternoons, driven by diurnal heating.

Day

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

An upper ridge continues building over much of the southern half of the country this weekend with our 2-day heating trend peaking on Saturday/Independence Day. NBM may be a bit too warm with Saturdays temperatures and may need to be adjusted but will still likely see another day of triple digit plus heat indices and a potential Heat Advisory due to excessive heating across parts of our area until sundown. Expecting the surface isobars to weaken a bit by Saturday with only a very weak low-level jet overhead. As a result it's not expected to be very windy on Independence Day which should not spoil any festivities at dusk. Rain/storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma late Saturday but most likely after midnight. With the main jet stream stretched across the northern half of the country, a disturbance moving across the Northern & Central Plains may push a cold front into Kansas then stalling out. This system could bring storms into northern Oklahoma late Saturday night into Sunday. The upper ridge may start breaking down in spots on Sunday through Tuesday with embedded shortwaves initiating thunderstorm activity. Although we have storm POPs every day Sunday into early next week, the best timing for the most widespread chances will be Sunday night. This trend to a wetter pattern on Sunday will bring relief from Saturdays excessive heating.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR category is expected through the period. Areas of a high clouds (west & central) and an occasionally gusty south-southwesterly wind are expected. Another round of eveningtime convection may approach terminals across far western Oklahoma, though uncertainty in longevity precludes addition of PROB30 groups at this update. Some residual gusty winds/wind shift may still be possible even if storms dissipate prior to reaching this area near and after sunset.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 92 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 77 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.