textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect on Tuesday due to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- Warm temperatures, coupled with breezy and dry conditions, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

With the surface high exiting the plains ahead of the upper ridge, light winds have veered to the southeast over central Oklahoma with gusty southerly winds observed over parts of western Oklahoma. High temperatures will be coolest in north-central Oklahoma (mid- to upper-40's), with low 60's over parts of western north Texas and far western Oklahoma.

Expect scattered high clouds to stream in from the northwest tonight with overnight low temperatures in the mid-30's to near 40 degrees. Sustained southerly winds will increase tonight (from west to east) to 15 to 25 mph as the pressure gradient tightens with the deepening of the surface trough.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 134 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A Fire Weather Watch is being issued for Tuesday for much of the forecast area, excluding southeastern Oklahoma, due to warm temperatures, very low relative humidity (RH), gusty south/southwest winds, and highly receptive fuels.

By early Tuesday morning, H850 winds veer west/southwest as the surface trough deepens across the plains. The 30 to 40 knot LLJ that developed overnight shifts eastward on Tuesday, and the LLJ maxima is prog'd to reside near and east of the I-44 corridor. Expect south/southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 35 to 40 mph as daytime mixing taps into the LLJ. Note that the lightest winds will be over northwest Oklahoma with a wind shift possible late afternoon for a few hours as the trough axis moves into that area.

Warmer temperatures are expected area-wide on Tuesday, with enhanced warming from downslope flow anticipated from northwest Oklahoma to western north Texas. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60's to the upper 70's. RH will be as low as 10 percent across northwest and western Oklahoma into western north Texas, and to 25 percent across central Oklahoma. This will yield elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

A weak cold front moves into northern Oklahoma late Tuesday night as a surface low tracks southeastward across the TX panhandle and will result in a wind shift to the north for most through Wednesday morning. Despite this, daytime temperatures will peak in the 70's to near 80 deg.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A cooler and drier air mass with breezy northerly winds is expected in the front's wake on Thursday. The air mass behind this front is not too cold for February with above-normal temperatures likely to continue to behind it with downslope-warming modifying the air mass. Warmer weather will return by Friday as southerly winds return with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies.

Forecast uncertainty increases markedly by the weekend into early the following week with a large spread among deterministic models and ensemble members. There are indications that a strong cold could potentially be in close proximity to the Southern Plains with significant differences in the timing of the front. As a result, probabilistic guidance has an ~40 to 50 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles Sunday through Tuesday. For now, the temperature forecast trends cooler late in the weekend into early next week with the potential to trend even colder if the front is stronger.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the upcoming valid period. Increasingly gusty south-southwesterly surface flow will expand southeastward across Oklahoma over the coming hours, with most persistent gusty conditions expected near and east of the I-44 corridor into Tuesday.

Ongoing and forecast low-level wind shear will impact all terminals into Tuesday morning, with a reoccurring threat possible across southern Oklahoma and north Texas shortly after sunset on Tuesday evening/night.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 39 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 38 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 40 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 37 77 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 34 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 35 68 53 78 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CST Tuesday through Tuesday evening for OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CST Tuesday through Tuesday evening for TXZ083>090.