textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 554 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Scattered showers/storm early this morning and then again this afternoon and evening.

- Heat indices around 105 in the southeast again this afternoon.

- More widespread storms Saturday/Saturday night with strong to severe storms possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A few showers/storms persist early this morning across northwest Oklahoma, and chances will continue early this morning spreading east across northern Oklahoma before dissipating. Severe weather is unlikely with these storms. We expect to see redevelopment this afternoon into this evening again across northern Oklahoma. A few strong (and perhaps severe) storms will be possible with this activity with the potential of strong wind and some hail.

NBM has recently been overaggressive with highs and underdoing the dewpoints. This morning, the NBM was even under-representing the dewpoint in central Oklahoma by 3-5 degrees in the first hour. So have adjusted the forecast high temperature down from NBM and dewpoints up. With these adjustments, the forecast heat index values will approach or exceed 105 across southeast Oklahoma, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for Coal, Atoka and Bryan Counties.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Thunderstorm development across the north this afternoon will linger into the evening hours. As mentioned above, isolated strong to possibly severe storms will be possible.

On Saturday, a mid-level trough over the northern/central Plains drifts slowly southeast toward the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and a surface front moves down the Plains behind this trough. In general, the models push this into northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. Storm chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening with the boundary in the area and are forecast to become more widespread. One caveat though is that some positive vorticity advection is forecast by many models to contribute to storm development as a vort max moves toward northern Oklahoma from southeast Colorado... but the question is if this is a legit vort max (or even a forecast MCV), or if it is convective feedback in the model. With this, think some of the synoptic models may be overdoing the convective development, but will still keep POPs relatively high since there will likely be the surface boundary in the area. Forecast soundings show an inverted-V in the low levels and healthy downdraft CAPE, so some acceleration of downdraft winds into potential downbursts will be possible. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms for tomorrow, but in coordination with them this morning, a slight risk may become necessary across a portion of the area once the geography and any questions around areal coverage becomes more clear.

By Sunday, the pattern shifts into a southwesterly flow aloft with various shortwaves in the southwest flow, and this will keep storm chances going on Sunday and into Sunday night, especially with a surface boundary still expected to be somewhere over the forecast area.

Although high temperatures are forecast to lower slightly on Saturday and Sunday, higher dewpoints are also expected keeping Heat Index values in the upper 90s to triple digits. The most likely areas to see Heat Indices of 105 will continue to be across southeast Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The surface front is projected to settle into or south of the area late Sunday/Monday, and 500 mb heights and 1000mb-500mb thicknesses decrease a little bit, which looks to keep high temperatures closer to normal (i.e. not quite as hot as we have had recently) through mid-week, although will start climbing again mid-late week. Widely scattered, mainly diurnal, convection will be possible as the upper ridge will be somewhat weaker, but there is no significant forcing currently expected to increase POPs significantly in the early-mid part of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. Showers and maybe a few storms is expected to continue to move across parts of northern OK this morning. However, this activity is currently not expected to affect the TAF sites. Additional showers/storms will be possible later this afternoon into tonight across northern OK. A boundary is expected to lay west to east across northern OK today which will affect winds north of the boundary with southerly winds expected south of the boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 98 79 96 75 / 0 0 20 60 Hobart OK 100 77 98 74 / 0 0 0 40 Wichita Falls TX 100 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 98 73 96 71 / 20 20 20 30 Ponca City OK 95 76 93 72 / 20 10 40 60 Durant OK 98 79 97 78 / 0 0 0 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ043-048-052.

TX...None.