textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday. Some of the storms may become strong.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the middle of the week before triple digit heat returns by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Some showers will remain possible across parts of western north TX and maybe far southern OK overnight into early Tuesday but most locations will remain dry. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms will be possible again Tuesday afternoon highest chances in parts of southern OK and north TX although wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated shower/storm as far north as the I-40 corridor. With MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg expected this afternoon, a few of the storms could become strong to maybe marginally severe with gusty winds and hail possible. Otherwise, the impacts with the afternoon activity will be lightning and heavy downpours. This activity is expected to diminish late afternoon/early evening with the loss of daytime heating.

With easterly flow continuing aloft and light east to southeast winds at the surface, the near or below normal temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Rain chances will continue off and on across parts of the area through Thursday. Some isolated activity may be possible near the Red River again Tuesday night but most of the area is expected to remain dry. Rain chances then increase on Wednesday with a mid-lvl disturbance/shortwave moving across the area from east to west. The highest chances will be generally southeast of I-44. Some of these storms could become strong. On Thursday, chances will once again be mainly in parts of southern OK and western north TX. The highest chances each day will be in the afternoon when daytime heating can help in development with the rain ending or decreasing in coverage during the evening hours.

As for temperatures, the streak of near or below average temperatures is expected to continue through the middle of the week with highs generally in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s. Lows will continue in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s. Despite the "cooler" than normal temperatures for mid July, heat indices are still hot parts of the area in the mid to upper 90s, approaching 100.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The upper pattern begins to shift towards the end of the week into the weekend with the easterly flow ending over the region and the axis of the upper ridge trying to build over the western U.S. At the sfc, winds will also become more south to southwesterly. This will lead to a warm up to above average temperatures starting over the weekend with highs back into the mid/upper 90s. Triple digit heat indices will also become possible again.

In terms of rain, there are some chances on Friday as another mid- lvl disturbance moves across the Southern Plains but with the pattern shift rain chances are currently expected to shut off this weekend and continue into early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions with light easterly winds are expected to prevail through the period. Low probabilities for fog are in place across southeast OK, but if it occurs is expected to be patchy with visibilities mainly VFR. Isolated showers and storms are possible once again Tuesday afternoon, but will diminish by early Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 69 89 70 / 10 10 20 10 Hobart OK 90 68 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 91 68 90 69 / 20 20 30 10 Gage OK 91 66 90 67 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 88 69 88 70 / 10 0 10 10 Durant OK 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.