textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Cold front moving through the area today and tonight bringing rain chances and relief from the heat.

- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Convection persists early this morning across northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas near a surface cold front, and moving into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma along a surface trough. Showers and storms will persist this morning, although the trend will likely be decreasing coverage and intensity early this morning. The highest chances of storms persisting will be in the north close to the cold front.

Storms will redevelop this afternoon along the cold front, which will most likely be across central and southwestern Oklahoma. Unfortunately there may be some areas of central and west central Oklahoma that miss out on significant precipitation again with precipitation dissipating to the north in the morning and redeveloping in the south this afternoon. The storms that do develop this afternoon will spread south and southeast late in the afternoon. Instability will be sufficient to support strong and widely scattered severe thunderstorms. Deep layer shear looks to be marginal with 20-25 knots of 6 km shear near and south of the front which will limit organization and persistence of individual storms.

The cooler post-frontal air will be keep highs in northern Oklahoma in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but it will be another hot day with temperatures in the triple digits and heat index between 100 and 105 in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Storms will persist tonight spreading south and southeast as the cold front continues to move through. The potential for severe weather will continue into the evening, but then decrease late this evening as instability decreases. Additional storms are expected to develop over the Colorado High Plains with post- frontal upslope flow and an upper trough approaching from the Intermountain West. Many of the convective-allowing models suggest that this convection will develop into a storm complex that moves southeast toward northwestern Oklahoma late tonight toward sunrise Monday morning, so will also have POPs late tonight into Monday morning in the northwest.

The front will have moved through all of the area Monday, although southeastern Oklahoma still may have highs in the mid 90s with the cooler air filtering in a little later. Although the primary focus for storms shifts south into the Lone Star State, there will be some storm potential into southern Oklahoma near and north of the front on Monday. But then storm chances will primarily be in the west with the potential of storms moving in off the High Plains.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Although an upper ridge builds from Texas toward the mid- Mississippi Valley mid week, the ridge is weaker than we have seen recently and we still have the more seasonable low-level airmass in place. Increasing southwest flow aloft develops across northwestern Oklahoma with a series of shortwaves approaching in this southwest flow. These waves will help keep precipitation chances in the forecast mid to late week, primarily across the western and northern portions of the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Multiple outflow boundaries exist in the CWA - one in western Oklahoma, and one from northwest to northern Oklahoma. Winds are gradually returning to southerly on both sides of the boundary, but a synoptic cold front will bring northerly winds as it leaks southward toward the Red River by 0Z. Thunderstorms are expected in multiple periods - one tonight primarily north of I-40, and another (more widespread) round moving south and east from near I-44 during the afternoon. Outside of these rounds of storms, aviation conditions should remain generally VFR over the next 24 hours.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 95 66 84 63 / 50 50 20 0 Hobart OK 99 67 88 64 / 20 30 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 100 68 91 65 / 60 40 20 30 Gage OK 89 61 83 59 / 10 20 40 10 Ponca City OK 89 63 82 59 / 60 50 10 0 Durant OK 100 70 95 68 / 20 50 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.