textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Cooler today before unseasonably warm temperatures Tuesday through much of the upcoming week.

- No chance for precipitation through at least Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

After a cold, cloudy and locally foggy start, seasonable early- December weather is expected this afternoon. A stagnant area of stratus across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma is quickly eroding late this morning. Afternoon and early evening temperatures will be strongly moderated by the longevity of cloud cover, with mid to upper-50s west and southwest giving way to upper-40s across central and eastern Oklahoma.

Not quite as cold overnight tonight, with slightly stronger southwesterly surface winds and potential for passing areas of mid/high clouds. Patchy fog will again be possible towards daybreak Tuesday across portions of western Oklahoma.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Persistent northwesterly upper flow remains over the central CONUS into the midweek, with a strong embedded system moving across the Dakotas on Tuesday. Increasing southwesterly surface winds (owing to a more pronounced surface pressure gradient), advection of a warmer low-level airmass and mostly clear skies will allow for a warmer day areawide on Tuesday. A few locations across far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas will approach 70 degrees by the mid-afternoon.

The aforementioned northern stream system will push a trailing surface front across the area from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Given the trajectory of the parent system (well to our north & east), the pocket of coldest post-frontal air will angle towards the Ohio Valley. Therefore, greatest sensible impact with this feature looks to be a southwest-to-north/northeasterly wind shift on Wednesday morning, with potential for a few morning time gusts up to 25-30 mph. Afternoon conditions will likely run a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, though look to remain at or slightly above normal for December 10th.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Heading into the latter half of the week and into the weekend, the pattern aloft continues to feature northwesterly flow aloft with a strong jet digging into the Plains. There is decent confidence of this cold front at the end of the week bringing cold air by the weekend. However, the latest ensemble guidance indicates delay in the timing of the coldest airmass. Grand ensemble temperature spreads of the 25th vs 75th percentiles (upper quartile and lower quartile) have narrowed with the most recent 12/8 00z model run and generally have the coldest air not pushing into Oklahoma until Saturday and nearly 5 degree spreads both Friday and Saturday (lower to mid 50s and upper 30s to lower 40s, respectively). Cluster analysis reveals nearly 80 percent of the models agree with this delayed solution of the colder air, while 20 percent of the members continues to dig cold air into the forecast area by Friday. The extended forecast continues to remain dry with no precipitation chances with these fronts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Although MVFR/LIFR conditions are currently observed at KLAW, KSPS, and KPNC, VFR conditions are expected within the next hour or two as the stratus/fog dissipates. Generally light southerly winds and VFR conditions are expected gradually increase on Tuesday morning. While there is a minor signal of fog developing early Tuesday morning, any fog that develops should be very isolated in nature.

Thompson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 33 62 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 33 68 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 29 68 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 29 62 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 33 63 42 63 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.