textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma.

- Less hot weather is expected through Friday in the wake of a cold front.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today's forecast is largely driven by the frontal boundary that is nearly through the area. A few spots remain south of the boundary in far southern Oklahoma - Bryan and Love Counties in particular - as of 1730 UTC. But any near-frontal heat risk should be on the lower end relative to the rest of this month, especially as a band of showers continues to move southeastward through central and eastern Oklahoma.

Those showers may see some periodic intensification this afternoon with short-range guidance suggesting MLCAPE values of about 2,500 J/kg. However, due to postfrontal northeasterlies throughout the boundary layer and increased surface moisture (dewpoints in the low 70s) increasing boundary layer RH, no parameters jump off the page for an organized severe weather risk. The greatest potential for sporadic strong to severe storms will be occasional pulse-type cores with around-1-inch hail and collapsing downburst winds.

Would expect a lull in any precipitation for most of the evening due to the northeast winds in the LLJ layer. With that said, PoPS increase again near and just before daybreak in northwest Oklahoma with another decaying linear system/remnant MCV moving in from the high terrain. Lows will tend to be a few degrees cooler tonight than they were last night.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Similar to today, tomorrow's forecast will start off with and be driven by the strength and motion of any MCVs that get generated off of the high terrain tonight. Sufficient instability will exist during the morning hours for any complexes that develop to maintain themselves for a while, but a relative lull near noon does seem likely. Redevelopment of convection later in the day will likely be focused in the far western and far southeastern fringes of the CWA. Once again, moderate but overwhelming instability, moderate but not overwhelming dewpoint depressions (30-35 degrees), and weak deep layer shear with easterly/northeasterly winds in the lower troposphere will all combine to keep any storms that develop from getting too unruly.

The weather signal gets a little bit more unclear moving into Friday. This is in part because the ridge starts to expand a little bit eastward. This will reduce (though not necessarily totally eliminate) the probability of continuing the daily storm pattern we've seen so much of recently. Fortunately, temperatures will be a little bit slower to respond; while we will be above normal for this time of year, it won't be anywhere near as hot as the first 3 weeks of this month.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The warming trend then continues over the weekend as triple digit heat returns to the western half of the area Saturday and the remainder of the area Sunday. Sunday will likely see the return of heat headlines, after a couple of slightly cooler days, as afternoon heat indices once again top 105 across parts of the area.

Models are still showing a transition of the upper ridge into the southeast part of the country as we go into next week. This will be a gradual process through the early parts of next week. So outside of far northwest Oklahoma, which may see some low rain chances, the remainder of the area looks to remain dry with highs each day of 100- 105.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Mainly light north to northeast winds, somewhat variable in direction will prevail through most of the TAF period. Low chances for pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon in south central Oklahoma. There's a low to medium chance for an MCS to come down out of Kansas through the panhandles and parts of western Oklahoma toward early morning, but timing and areal extent are uncertain. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 95 72 95 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 72 96 70 98 / 20 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 100 72 99 / 10 20 10 10 Gage OK 66 93 66 96 / 40 50 10 0 Ponca City OK 71 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 0 Durant OK 73 99 72 98 / 20 20 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.