textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Severe thunderstorms possible today with a risk for giant hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (potentially strong).

- Briefly drier Monday into Tuesday before additional storm chances return next week.

- Fire weather ramps up on Monday with elevated to near critical conditions.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Severe storms with the potential for giant hail and tornadoes will be the main impact today.

Our synoptic setup includes a weak shortwave moving across the area, a warm front pushing north into southern and central Oklahoma, and a dryline setting up in western north Texas. Abundant low level moisture (dewpoints in the 60s and 70s) will yield a very unstable environment (3000-4000 J/Kg). Meanwhile, low level shear will be enhanced along and north of the warm front with strongly backed surface flow. This morning's stratus is quickly clearing from the southwest with the progression of the warm front.

Most models have storms developing along and just north of the front, stretching from near central Oklahoma into southeast Oklahoma. There are also some hints at a few storms developing off the dryline in north Texas, though forcing seems weaker there. Most likely time for initiation looks to be between 4 and 6pm. Initial storms will be discrete, with a risk for giant hail and tornadoes. The environment would favor splitting supercells. As we go into the evening, expect the low level jet to increase and storms to grow more upscale.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Overnight convection from Saturday night may linger into Sunday morning, mainly southeast Oklahoma, though a few models show showers expanding along the front into north central Oklahoma. Storm development Sunday afternoon appears very conditional (10-20% chance) with stout capping and a mistimed wave working against storm chances. That said, if storms do develop, strong instability and shear would support all severe hazards.

Monday, fire weather returns with RH driven elevated to near critical RFTIs across much of western Oklahoma and western north Texas into parts of central Oklahoma. Winds will be 15 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph from the west / southwest with RH values dipping into the single digits. Recent greenup will limit fire concerns in central parts of the state. Additionally, the low level thermal ridge looks to be displaced south of the highest ERCs in northwest Oklahoma.

Sunday and Monday will both feature highs in the upper 70s to mid 90s with breezy south to southwest winds.

Day

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Model spread increases mid to late week regarding the degree of moisture recovery and related storm/severe chances. The latest guidance has trended towards a more suppressed solution with much of our area remaining to the north of the deeper moisture. That said, it is not forecast to be all that far away and with westerly/southwesterly flow being maintained over the region through much of the week it would not take much of a shift back north to bring additional severe chances to the area. Regardless, models do agree on the next bigger shortwave approaching the area Friday, bringing increased precipitation chances to much of the region. Temperatures will start out near or slightly above normal Tuesday, with below normal temperatures then forecast for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Thunderstorms capable of very large hail and tornadoes will continue over south central Oklahoma and north Texas this evening, with the area of storms gradually shifting eastward. Stratus should continue to shrink and lift, though some patchy MVFR ceilings may linger over north central and central Oklahoma. Overnight, MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings will redevelop over much of the area. Winds will have some variability in direction due to a front and outflows moving through the area.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 84 68 88 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 57 90 62 91 / 10 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 62 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 0 Gage OK 51 85 55 84 / 20 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 59 77 64 84 / 60 30 20 0 Durant OK 64 87 71 91 / 60 20 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.