textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- An isolated strong storm may be possible Sunday afternoon across far southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Gusty wind and small hail would be the primary hazards.

- Rain and storm chances will continue through most of the week across portions of the area. Strong to severe storms may become possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Decaying overnight storms may still be lingering in portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas early this morning. However, most of the activity will be weak with gusty winds and lightning as the primary hazards.

The remainder of today is expected to stay mostly dry across the area with a developing closed low over northern and central Texas. Scattered to broken clouds will give way to peeks of sunshine and temperatures warming into the 80s. Recent model guidance is hinting at the potential for a few isolated storms to develop across north Texas and far southern Oklahoma this afternoon with a potential remnant MCV from the overnight convection. Bulk shear will be overall weak, but the aforementioned area will have MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg which will support a strong to potentially severe updraft with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards. These storms will be short-lived and chances will decrease by the evening.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The upper low will deepen over eastern Texas Monday with isolated to scattered "popcorn" showers and storms through the afternoon. A few of these storms may be on the northern periphery of the low and enter north Texas and far southern Oklahoma. A few strong updrafts couldn't be ruled out with any storms that develop. Similar to Sunday, weak shear will bring an end to this activity by the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.

Another shortwave will approach the southern Rockies Monday afternoon with afternoon convection expected to develop along the higher terrain in New Mexico and stretching into the High Plains. There is a very low chance for storms to reach western Oklahoma Monday evening due to weak steering flow aloft. If storms were to develop and push east into the forecast area late Monday evening, gusty winds would be the primary concern with decaying updrafts.

By Tuesday, the upper low will eject to the north with some additional chances for showers and storms across central into eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the shortwave to the west will swing into the Southern Plains and bring increasing shower and storm chances to western Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Similar to the previous few nights, storms may continue to push eastward across the forecast area overnight into early Wednesday morning. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The shortwave from Tuesday will still be moving over the Southern Plains Wednesday and into Thursday with additional shower and storm chances across much of the area. The next upper low will be nearly stationary spinning over Nevada, which is partly why the shortwave is slow moving to eject across the Southern Plains this week. There is uncertainty in the track and evolution of this upper low out west, which could bring additional shower and storms chances next weekend. Looking at the National Blend of Models through next weekend, the area with the highest chances for greater rainfall totals over the 7 day period will be across western north Texas into southern and central Oklahoma and decrease with northward extent. However, the probabilities for at least half an inch of rainfall across any portion of the forecast area in the next week remains medium to high (40+%) with the greater chances lining up with the areas previously mentioned in the last sentence.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected this morning. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by the early afternoon. Winds will generally be weak and out of the southeast through the TAF period. The best chance for seeing winds above 10kt will be across northwestern Oklahoma by the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 83 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 86 62 88 62 / 10 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 85 62 88 63 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 85 62 87 62 / 0 10 30 10 Ponca City OK 82 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 65 85 66 / 10 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.