textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues through Wednesday with triple digit heat indices and lows well above normal.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered to numerous storms expected late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Heat tries to rebound this weekend with low rain chances each day.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Copy / paste the last few days as our prolonged heat continues with lows in the mid to upper 70s and triple digit highs. 105-110 heat indices spread a bit farther today, driven by increased moisture. The greatest heat impact will be southeast Oklahoma where we will be near Extreme Heat criteria (heat indices of 110). Heat indices will be a tad lower (100-105) in western Oklahoma due to drier air.

Just like previous days, we may see a few isolated diurnally driven showers / storms in southeast Oklahoma again this afternoon (10% PoPs).

Day

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Our prolonged heat wave will continue one more day into Wednesday before we start to see some relief from a front approaching later in the day. There is some uncertainty in northwest Oklahoma due to potential afternoon storms and cloud cover, but confidence remains high for persistent heat across the rest of the forecast area with similar heat indices to previous days.

A broken line of showers and storms is expected to fire along the front Wednesday afternoon as it enters northwest Oklahoma. This scattered convection will gradually spread southward through the evening and overnight. Weak shear will limit storm organization, but a few strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon with modest instability in place. Showers will likely linger into Thursday morning with some scattered redevelopment possible Thursday afternoon.

Areas north of I-40 will have a chance for some beneficial rainfall during this Wednesday-Thursday period with 0.25 inch exceedance probabilities ranging from 40% in northwest Oklahoma to 80% in north central Oklahoma. Probabilities drop off as you move farther south with areas along the Red River only showing 10-20% chance of 0.25 inches or greater. With the scattered nature of this event, expect rainfall amounts to be fairly spotty.

Thursday will also bring long awaited relief from the heat for most of the forecast area (to varying degrees). North of I-40, we're looking at 40-70% chance of sub 90 degree temperatures. For Oklahoma City (50% probability), this would be the first sub 90 degree day we've had since July 17th. South of I-40, we can use 95 degrees as our reference number with 20-70% chances (diminishing north to south). North Texas and areas along the Red River will still have a 50% chance of reaching 100 degrees, depending on how far south convection can push this cold front. That said, with the uncertainties in frontal progression as well as potential rainfall and cloud cover, ensemble spread is high across the forecast area for high temperatures.

Day

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Ridging will continue to exert its influence over the weekend, resulting in a rebound of temperatures. Interquartile ranges suggest 90s to lower 100s (with the warmest temperatures farther south). Targeted heat advisories may be needed, but widespread advisories look unlikely.

The ridge leaves room for a few shortwaves to ride around the periphery, keeping 10-30% chances for rain in our area over the weekend. A few deterministic models depict an overnight MCS during this time period.

Beyond Sunday, confidence drops significantly. The interquartile spread for high temperatures increases to 15 to 25 degrees as models diverge on the potential approach of another cold front. Warmer solutions (due to stronger ridging) appear to be the more likely scenario, but alternate scenarios (10-20% probability) could bring substantial cooling (highs in the 70s and 80s areawide).

Day

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the upcoming period. Patchy diurnal cumulus, an occasionally gusty south-southeasterly wind and a very low chance for brief showers/storms across southeastern Oklahoma are expected on Tuesday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 101 78 100 74 / 0 0 0 60 Hobart OK 102 78 103 75 / 0 0 0 40 Wichita Falls TX 103 78 103 76 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 102 75 98 69 / 0 0 50 80 Ponca City OK 102 77 102 70 / 0 0 40 90 Durant OK 102 76 101 76 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.