textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- A Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning are in effect today, with elevated fire weather conditions expected on Tuesday.

- Severe storms are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary hazards will be large hail, damaging winds. A few tornadoes may be possible on Wednesday.

- Additional fire weather conditions and storm chances will be possible during the end of the week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Warm, well above normal temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. The 850-mb low-level thermal ridge will strengthen this afternoon, mostly across West Texas but also into portions of western Oklahoma. Strong 850-mb southerly winds of 30-40 knots will mix this afternoon with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40-45 mph possible. The dryline is draped southwest to northeast across West Texas and is expected to creep into far northwest Oklahoma this afternoon, bringing in drier conditions. Relative humidity values will be as low as 10 percent across far northwest Oklahoma with increasing values southeastward ahead of the dryline Despite dewpoints in the 50s east of the dryline, warm temperatures will still allow for relative humidity as low as 30 percent.

Fuels continue to remain extremely dry and susceptible to fire starts with a continued absence of rain. Elevated (mostly wind driven) fire weather conditions will begin to increase this afternoon with near critical conditions possible across portions of western Oklahoma, more specifically near or behind the dryline where winds and low relative humidity values align. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM this evening across western Oklahoma with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through 9 PM across the remainder of the area, except southeast Oklahoma.

There is a chance for some storms to develop along the dryline in the Southern High Plains, but the storms are expected to diminish before reaching the 100th meridian. If a storm or two were to make it into western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, main threat would be strong wind gusts with decaying updrafts.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Another warm day Tuesday with above average temperatures. The surface low will from Monday across southwest Kansas will meander eastward across southern Kansas. A cold front will push into northwest Oklahoma by the afternoon hours with the dryline draped south southwestward just west of the 100th meridian. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible initially during the afternoon hours with relative humidity values as low as 15 to 30 percent. Where the lowest relative humidity values will exist, winds will not be as strong, thus limiting the fire risk to elevated versus near critical.

Afternoon storms may develop along the dryline and near the triple point in West Texas. Storm coverage remains uncertain, but with plenty of buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) will give way to towering cumulus and updraft attempts. Weaker southwesterly flow aloft will lead to meager bulk shear of around 30 knots. Any storms that develop near the front will have the potential to persist longer into the evening hours. Overall, the main hazard will be damaging wind gusts with dry inverted 'V' soundings up to around 700-500mb with dewpoint depressions of nearly 40 deg F. DCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg, so damaging winds up to 65 mph are possible, especially with decaying storms. With a very dry sub-cloud layer, dry lightning will also play a concern for introducing new fire starts. Best timing for storms will be as early as 4-5PM as storms move eastward into central Oklahoma and diminish likely before midnight. Best chances for storms will be across northern Oklahoma with the stalled cold front.

Wednesday, a shortwave will approach aloft with strengthening lee cyclogenesis across southeast Colorado. The cold front will lift northward with continued warm southerly flow and above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s. The dryline will setup near the same area as Tuesday. Initial storm development will be along and east of the dryline during the late afternoon hours with increasing ascent ahead of the shortwave aloft. Initial storms may be isolated to scattered with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. As the upper wave pushes eastward across the Southern Plains, storms are expected to grow upscale into a line. Primary hazard will become damaging wind gusts with an increasing threat for QLCS tornadoes embedded in the line. The line of storms will continue to move eastward through the late evening hours with storm chances decreasing from west to east.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Active pattern will continue into the weekend with several cold fronts and chances for showers and storms.

Models show a shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains Thursday with a cold front moving into the area. This will continue the chance for showers and storms into Thursday with chances ending/decreasing from west to east as the shortwave moves across the region.

Models show winds quickly turning back to the south by Friday as an upper low and associated trough approaches the Plains. This storm system will continue to move across the Plains Friday into Saturday causing another cold front to move across the area and bringing another chance for showers and storms.

Above average temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday but then cooler air moving into the area behind late Friday's cold front will lead to near or slightly below average temperatures over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR and MVFR conditions expected this TAF period. Winds will back to the S and SE this evening but remain rather breezy through the night then veer back to the S and SW Tuesday morning. A cold front is expected to move into parts of NW OK Tuesday afternoon. Some thunderstorms could develop near the front starting late Tuesday afternoon. LLWS is also expected tonight into early Tuesday at all TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 86 64 84 / 0 10 40 40 Hobart OK 63 89 61 84 / 0 20 30 40 Wichita Falls TX 62 88 65 88 / 0 10 20 40 Gage OK 61 87 48 79 / 10 20 30 30 Ponca City OK 65 87 60 81 / 0 20 60 50 Durant OK 62 84 65 84 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>029-033>038- 044.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...None.