textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Cool, seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend with widespread freezes Saturday and Sunday nights.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures coupled with breezy and dry conditions will bring a return to fire weather conditions next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Post-frontal breezy north winds are expected through this afternoon as temperatures rise and mix down 20-25 knot 850mb winds to the surface. Expect gusts up to 30-35 mph possible, especially along and south of I-40 and into western north Texas. The surface high will dig southward into Oklahoma and keep the cooler, slightly below average temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s in place for today. Breezy conditions will diminish this evening with the setting sun and lack of mixing. Light and variable winds coupled with mostly clear skies tonight will give way to radiational cooling and below freezing low temperatures across most of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Sunday will feature a continued cooler, slight below average temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s (similar to today). Winds will be lighter as the 850mb high brings weaker winds aloft over the area. Expect north winds of 5 to 15 mph through the day with some localized breezes up to 20 mph possible, specifically along and east of the I-35 corridor. The very light winds will veer to the east- northeast overnight with mostly clear skies giving way to another night of radiational cooling and widespread temperatures below freezing across the area.

Monday, winds will continue to veer to the south with weak troughing over the Rockies giving way to low-end breezy conditions across western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas. Expect diurnally driven south winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. Temperatures will warm back to near normal in the 50s to lower 60s with compressional warming due to a return of northwesterly flow aloft. Low temperatures Monday night will be mostly above freezing in the mid to upper 30s with some increasing clouds across the north and south winds of 5 to 15 mph.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will return across the entire area on Tuesday with rising mid-level heights, breezy southerly winds, and the eastward expansion of the low-level thermal ridge through downslope warming. High temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 deg F (~15 deg above normal).

With the ongoing drought conditions and receptive/dry fuels, fire weather will become an increasing concern. Even with the southerly winds, moisture advection appears limited with afternoon relative humidity values between 15 to 30%. This dry return flow (DRF) pattern will likely set the stage for at least elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon with the potential for near- critical fire weather conditions.

The warm, above-normal temperatures will likely continue into Wednesday with even the 10th percentile of probabilistic guidance indicating temperatures ~15 to 20 deg F above normal. As a result, at least elevated fire weather conditions will continue on Wednesday.

By Thursday, cooler weather is expected as a cold front is forecast to advance southward through the area. Even so, the most likely scenario is still above-normal temperatures in its wake for Thursday and Friday.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals during the upcoming period. The return of an occasionally gusty north surface wind is forecast by 14-16 UTC Sunday across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Winds are then expected to weaken and veer after sunset, especially across western Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 29 49 24 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 25 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 29 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 20 49 21 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 24 47 19 50 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 31 53 27 55 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.