textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- One more day of a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. - Warming trend to commence today, topping out Tuesday.

- Dry and hot continue through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Closed upper low over west Texas finally opens up and weakens today as upper highs over the gulf and central Rockies try to build into the area from both sides. This will give us one more chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms today. There may be a some isolated activity toward sunrise across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, with an additional chance across parts of the area during the afternoon hours today. No severe weather is anticipated, but some gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with any stronger cells

Otherwise, low level winds will be more veered today, which will bring in warmer air in off he higher terrain from the west. This will result in afternoon temperatures closer to mid July normals in the low to middle 90s with some heat indices climbing above the century mark in some areas.

Any convection that does develop during the afternoon is expected to dissipate quickly around or just before sunset with dry conditions through the overnight period.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

By Sunday the upper highs merge into an elongated ridge from the central Rockies into the central and southern Plains into the Arklatex region. This will set the stage for what is expected to be an extended time frame of being under this ridge's influence. This developing ridge and expanding low level thermal ridge will result in warmer temperatures for Sunday with afternoon temperatures in the middle and upper 90s. Along with the higher temperatures, heat indices will top out between 100-105 degrees.

Height rises occur at 500 MB across the area for Monday as upper ridge continue to build. This along with veered low level flow, the thermal ridge will continue to expand eastward resulting in temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Portions of north central Oklahoma may approach 105. In addition, parts of northern and southeastern Oklahoma will approach advisory level heat indices.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Center of the upper ridge settles south over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slip southward into northern Oklahoma by late in the day. A pre- frontal torch (or strong thermal ridge) will be in place along and ahead of this front with 850M temperatures of 30-33 degrees. This will likely be the hottest day of the week and the year so far across the area, with highs ranging from 100-105 degrees. And even with the area beginning to mix out some of the higher dewpoints, afternoon heat indices of 105-110 degrees are expected. Will likely need some heat headlines for Tuesday.

The front may take a few degrees off for Wednesday, but is expected to wash out or lift back north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Still, most of Oklahoma and north Texas will see highs in the 100s, exception will be north central which will remain in the mid/upper 90s.

For the latter part of the week, the GFS has come more in line with the Euro in maintaining the upper ridge over Oklahoma and Texas. 500 heights will approach 600dm by Friday. So for both Thursday and Friday, highs will mostly be at or above 100 degrees with overnight lows barely dropping below 80 degrees. Multiple days with heat headlines are also possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A few showers and storms are possible through the day today, though coverage is expected to be lower than the last several days, with chances only about 20% for any given locations. Winds will remain from the south today and tonight, becoming gustier from late morning into late afternoon. Overall, expect prevailing VFR conditions through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 Hobart OK 93 71 94 73 / 20 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 92 72 95 74 / 20 20 10 0 Gage OK 94 70 95 72 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 91 74 93 76 / 10 20 10 0 Durant OK 94 76 95 77 / 20 10 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.