textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Record heat possible by the end of this week into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially today and Saturday.

- No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Focus is on fire weather potential for today. Gusty southwest winds have developed over the area, and RH had dropped below 20 percent across many areas west of Interstate 35 late this morning. Elevated fire weather conditions have already developed with areas of near-critical conditions. Some localized critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop this afternoon. The winds are not nearly as strong as this past Sunday, but will be sufficient for fire spread with the low humidity and dry fuels across the area. Expanded the Red Flag Warning earlier this morning both across northern Oklahoma and in south central Oklahoma as higher winds were forecast in the high-resolution models. Conditions will improve through the evening with increasing RH as temperatures cool. There will be enough wind to help keep low temperatures up and lows will generally be 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

With northwesterly flow aloft, a weak front will move into Oklahoma on Wednesday. Temperatures will not be cooler though with modified downslope air north of the front. But the proximity of the front will keep the pressure gradient relaxed and winds will be lighter keeping any fire weather concerns more in check. There is a little more push of the front on Thursday and north winds will increase somewhat and create elevated fire weather conditions again when combined with low afternoon RH. But again, temperatures will not be cooler with the front. In fact, highs on Thursday are expected to be from the mid 80s to mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Heat continues to be the name of the game going into the weekend. Friday and Saturday are likely to be among the hottest March days in recorded history on the Southern Plains. This is especially true for Saturday, where each of OKC/Lawton/Wichita Falls is forecast to come within 2 degrees of the March monthly record high (and with operational NBM still sitting between the 25th and 50th percentile, there's a good chance our forecast bumps a degree or two between now and then). Regardless, this will likely be an impactful early-season heat wave especially after the brief cooldown.

The ridge will break down and move eastward during the day on Sunday. This introduces some uncertainty for the first time into what is otherwise a slam-dunk forecast between now and then. Most models show a front accelerating southward across the Plains during the daytime before either stalling in or just south of our area, then making a quick return trip northward on Monday. Just how that evolution occurs will have a big impact on the temperature and fire weather forecast. However, one thing we know: the long-term continues to hold little to no chance for rain.

Meister

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Southerly winds will diminish over the next few hours this evening, though some breeziness of 10 to 15 mph may continue even into the overnight period. Low level wind shear is expected from around midnight toward morning across our eastern TAF sites ahead of an approaching front. Wind will be light tomorrow, shifting to northerly behind the front briefly.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 80 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 42 82 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 44 81 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 81 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 43 78 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 45 75 51 87 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042- 044>046-050.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.