textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

- Severe weather potential returns Tuesday.

- Several days of elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma.

- Strong front Wednesday will bring a possible light freeze to parts of the area by Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

Morning lows will largely be in the 30s, though radiational cooling may allow a few localized sites to dip below freezing (in northern and western Oklahoma).

Strong southerly to southwesterly surface flow in conjunction with sunny skies will bring back warm temperatures (area-wide) and elevated fire weather (western Oklahoma and western north Texas) this afternoon.

Regarding fire weather, we're looking at a partial downslope setup (southwest 850mb winds), a modest low level thermal ridge, and clear skies. This will result in efficient mixing, bringing RH values down into the teens across western Oklahoma and western north Texas and yielding elevated to near critical fire weather. While temperatures are rebounding quickly under full sun, moisture return will be slower, yielding minimum RH values in the 20s and 30s over most of the rest of the area. Additionally, RH values appear to be slower to recover this evening, with minimum values occurring between to 4 and 6 pm. With the recent splotchy rainfall and excellent overnight RH recoveries, ERCs will be moderate (50th-75th percentile).

Model analysis: We've lowered Td across northwest Oklahoma, where dry air intrusion appears most likely, toward the RAP solution. For worst case scenario, I always like to check the HRRR, which yields single digit RH values along our western border and sub-20 RH values northwest of a line from Frederick to Enid. While the mesoscale setup would favor at least somewhat drier solutions, we're thinking it's offset enough from the ideal conceptual model to not go all-in on the worst case HRRR solution at this time.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

Monday will be another elevated / near-critical fire weather day with a similar setup as to Sunday. The low-level thermal ridge will be a bit stronger with more of a westerly component to the 850mb winds. That said, southerly surface flow will have had longer to bring moisture back in, resulting in a sharper RH gradient. As with Sunday, have leaned toward hi-res solutions for northwest Oklahoma where dry air intrusion is most likely. Additionally, Monday will see a fairly broad area of breezy south southwest winds through the day.

A shortwave moving through will allow for some low rain chances in our southeast counties Monday morning.

Tuesday will bring a return of severe weather potential. An upper low lifting through the southern plains will bring strong ascent and deep layer shear allowing for widespread thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. A warm, moist air mass in place will result in ample instability. Additionally, we'll have a dryline out west and a cold front coming through Kansas. That said, QPF amounts remain on the low side for all but southeast Oklahoma.

Besides storms, Tuesday will also bring gusty south winds most of the day.

Day

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

After the cold front sweeps through Tuesday night, rain chances will decrease through late week. Fire weather will become the main concern for the latter half of the week with at least daily elevated fire weather across our western Oklahoma and western north Texas counties. Unfortunately, the aforementioned rainfall on Tuesday looks to be on the light side (less than 0.25") for much of this same area.

Wednesday, in particular, will bring strong post-frontal north winds approaching wind advisory criteria and yielding elevated RFTIs to most of the forecast area. On subsequent days, less extreme winds will allow fire weather concerns to be more confined and RH driven.

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Remnant high cloud remains across south central/southeast Oklahoma early tonight, but skies are still VFR. We look to be mostly clear and VFR over the next 24 hours. Winds will pick up from the southwest to 9-13 knots mid-morning, with a shift to southerly occurring right around sunset.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 53 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 74 50 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 74 54 85 65 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 76 48 83 55 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 72 50 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 72 53 80 65 / 0 20 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.