textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 808 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Severe thunderstorms producing heavy local rainfall, damaging wind gusts and large hail possible tonight associated with a cold front passage

- An unsettled pattern with multiple rounds of rain/storms are expected through this upcoming week; severe storms and heavy rainfall are possible especially late Tuesday - Below normal temperatures but muggy conditions are forecast this week becoming hotter this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 808 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Updated near term forecast following the nocturnal MCS that swept through the forecast area. Biggest changes were to enhance POPs mainly along the Red River area and western north Texas where the surface boundary is forecast to reside. A few strong to severe storms are possible in this area late afternoon with daytime heating.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Surface-based moisture transport will increase in the short term with the dryline staying far west of our forecast area and our cold front boundary stalled out near the Red River early in the week. As a result instability will be increasing to moderate intensity late in the day from diurnal heating. Meanwhile an upper high will be closing over the U.S. Southwest through adjacent Old Mexico which will be building a ridge over the Southern Plains. With the stalled surface boundary across our south and embedded mid-level shortwave rounding the ridging across our west and ample surface moisture in place will maintain storm chances every day in the short term. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will be pushing a cold front across the Central High Plains late Tuesday where severe weather could initiate and a few of these storms producing large hail & damaging wind gusts could track into northwest Oklahoma where a severe risk is in place. By Wednesday the surface front stalled out near the Red River may start lifting as a warm front with warm advection coupled with mid-level disturbances may initiate storm activity. Although temperatures may be near to slightly below average, the persisting surface moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s dew points) will still make our afternoon feel quite hot & muggy but should stay below heat advisory criteria through week.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Surface-based moisture transport will increase in the short term with the dryline staying far west of our forecast area and our cold front boundary stalled out near the Red River early in the week. As a result instability will be increasing to moderate intensity late in the day from diurnal heating. Meanwhile an upper high will be closing over the U.S. Southwest through adjacent Old Mexico which will be building a ridge over the Southern Plains. With the stalled surface boundary across our south and embedded mid-level shortwave rounding the ridging across our west and ample surface moisture in place will maintain storm chances every day in the short term. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will be pushing a cold front across the Central High Plains late Tuesday where severe weather could initiate and a few of these storms producing large hail & damaging wind gusts could track into northwest Oklahoma where a severe risk is in place. By Wednesday the surface front stalled out near the Red River may start lifting as a warm front with warm advection coupled with mid-level disturbances may initiate storm activity. Although temperatures may be near to slightly below average, the persisting surface moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s dew points) will still make our afternoon feel quite hot & muggy but should stay below heat advisory criteria through week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Our upper pattern will not be changing much in the long term with embedded shortwaves coming through the ridging. At the surface our warm front may be stalling out somewhere near to north of I-40 eventually lifting into the Central Plains by the end of the week with strong southerly winds coming up into the weekend. Storm POPs will be shifting higher across northern Oklahoma late in the week near the surface boundary with the start of a dry pattern this weekend along with hotter temperatures returning with triple digit highs perhaps west of the I-35 corridor. Overall this weekend is trending hotter & muggy and dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Squall line has almost entirely cleared the area. A second line of storms extends across southern Oklahoma and will move southeast over the next couple hours. Lightning is the main concern with it. After that, stratus will begin to entrench itself across parts of the area for the rest of the morning and into afternoon. Do expect at least some diurnal ceiling improvement for much of the area. Another round of storms is possible late tonight.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 83 69 88 73 / 30 60 40 40 Hobart OK 89 69 93 73 / 30 60 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 94 73 96 76 / 50 60 20 10 Gage OK 84 66 91 69 / 30 30 30 60 Ponca City OK 80 66 84 71 / 10 30 50 80 Durant OK 91 75 91 77 / 70 70 40 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.