textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon with all hazards possible, including heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- Next week will continue to feature an active pattern with chances for showers and storms most days, some strong to severe.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return early this week, especially across portions of western Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Showers and storms are continuing to push east northeast into Oklahoma early this morning. The low-level jet is ramping up and expected to remain strong, up to 40-50 knots, through this morning. Plenty of low-level moisture is present with dewpoints in the lower 60s across much of the area. Overall shear is relatively meager around 30 knots with MUCAPE values of less than 1000 J/kg, so the threat for severe storms remain low. A few strong embedded storms may be possible with gusty winds being the primary hazard. Low-level shear is not overly impressive, but winds are backed out of the southeast late this evening so there is a low end threat for a few brief embedded circulations, especially across western north Texas and into southern Oklahoma (near the Red River).

As the sub-tropical jet noses into Oklahoma with an incoming weak disturbance embedded in the flow aloft during the morning hours, there will be enough support aloft to help sustain showers and storms eastward across Oklahoma through this morning. Instability will be weak with gusty winds likely to be the primary hazard. Meanwhile, the greatest threat through the morning hours today will be flooding with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall as PWATs are anticipated to increase to around 1.5-1.75 inches, coupled with slow northeastward storm motions and training showers and storms. Main area for concern with flooding will be across portions of western north Texas into southern and central Oklahoma, where 1-3 inches could easily occur in localized areas.

The bulk of the showers and storms will continue to push eastward out of the area by the afternoon hours today. Skies will attempt to clear and/or clouds will break through the afternoon out west, which will allow for some diurnal heating into the 80s. A diffuse dryline will setup near the 100th meridian and into northwest Oklahoma, but convergence along the dryline looks to be relatively weak. The best instability will be east of the dryline, but there is a lack of forcing in the wake of the embedded disturbance aloft. If a storm or two were to develop along the dryline and remain isolated, there is a chance to tap into an environment capable of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Near sunset the low-level jet will increase and if a storm were ongoing could continue to be supported. However, there are quite a few strong signals indicating no convection develops at all this afternoon/evening along the dryline and therefore the chances for severe weather later today remain very conditional.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Rain and storm chances will decrease Sunday night. The main upper trough will continue to push eastward over southern Nevada Monday. The dryline will mix eastward slightly during the day Monday and setup diagonally from roughly western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma and up into north central Oklahoma. Convergence along the dryline remains weak initially, but backing winds through the late afternoon and evening hours may increase convergence along the dryline. Another embedded disturbance in the flow aloft will also bring increased effective shear of 40-50 knots and MLCAPE in excess of 2500+ J/kg would give way to storms capable of all hazards; very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Once again there is a lot of conditionality on storm initiation Monday with the NBM continuing to display below mentionable rain and storm chances. Thus, some slight chance PoPs were introduced during the afternoon and evening hours near and east of the dryline.

As the upper trough approaches the Plains Tuesday, southwesterly flow will increase aloft with strengthening lee cyclogenesis across northwest Kansas on Tuesday. The dryline will once again be setup across a very similar area as Monday with quite a bit more convergence present. Bulk shear will be nearly 50-60 knots with long hodographs present and indicative of an environment supportive for supercells. Height falls with the approaching trough axis and dynamic cooling aloft will help MLCAPE values remain above 2500+ J/kg. Thus, storms that develop Tuesday afternoon and evening will have the potential to support very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Storm chances are greater for Tuesday and less conditional given the flow aloft becoming more supportive for storm development and maintenance.

Fire weather will likely return Monday and Tuesday with the dryline setting up just east of northwest and into west central Oklahoma. There were some storms today with rainfall of 0.10-0.25 inch across the aforementioned area. Additional showers and storms are occurring across portions of west central into northwest Oklahoma, but sadly some locations across far northwest Oklahoma may not receive much more rainfall. Therefore elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return west of the dryline both Monday and Tuesday afternoon with RH values as low as 10 to 20 percent and 15 to 20 percent, respectively. Winds both days will be breezy out of the southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The actual trough axis will swing across the Plains Wednesday and the dryline will mix slightly more eastward, but storms will remain possible east of the dryline, mostly across central into eastern Oklahoma. Details on timing and hazards will be refined over the next few days with a better understanding of the upper troughs progression. Fire weather may also be possible west of the dryline, but again will remain highly conditional on rainfall earlier on in the week.

The active pattern does not come to an end after the wave passes Wednesday. Another system will dig into the Pacific northwest Thursday and keep southwesterly flow aloft. Thus, daily storms chances remain for the end of the week and into the weekend. Details on timing, location and severity will continue to be ironed out once the first wave moves through. Fire weather concerns during this time will also remain dependent on the dryline positioning and rainfall that occurs through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Showers and storms will move across the area the rest of tonight into Sunday morning, with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected at most sites. Ceilings will raise by late morning into the afternoon as rain moves eastward and clouds begin to clear from west to east. There is a very low chance (10-15%) for additional showers and storms to develop Sunday afternoon across western OK and western north TX, but the chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 64 85 66 / 90 10 20 20 Hobart OK 83 62 89 64 / 60 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 83 66 89 67 / 80 20 20 20 Gage OK 86 56 89 60 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 77 63 85 66 / 90 10 10 20 Durant OK 77 66 82 67 / 90 30 10 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.