textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot conditions for the upcoming weekend.

- There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning, especially across northern Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A ~597 dam mid-level ridge will continue to be the primary influence on the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas today. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning on the periphery of the ridge across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandles. However, this activity is expected to remain to our north and west this morning with the primary impact increased high clouds across northern Oklahoma.

High temperatures this afternoon will once again will be in the 100s deg F with heat indices between 105 and 110 deg F. As a result, a Heat Advisory continues across the entire area. The highest heat indices will be across north central, east central, and southeast Oklahoma due to higher moisture. Heat indices may reach near 110 deg F in some locations in these areas.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains to our northwest again tonight. There is a low chance the remnants of this convection could impact far northwest Oklahoma before dissipating.

The heatwave will continue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with Oklahoma and north Texas continuing to be influenced by the ridge aloft and the attendant low-level thermal ridge. Heat Advisories will likely be needed both afternoons.

There is a higher chance showers and thunderstorms could impact the area Thursday night as a shortwave trough rotates on the northeast periphery of the ridge in tandem with a wind shift/cold front. This will be the beginning of a pattern change that will impact the area for the upcoming weekend (see details in the Long Term section below).

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate a pattern change is likely by the upcoming weekend as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward on the northeast periphery of the ridge. The ridge will retrograde to the west, which will bring in stronger northerly flow aloft into the Southern Plains.

An initial cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday morning. However, the cold air advection with the initial wind shift will likely be limited/negligible. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the front with the highest chance across north central Oklahoma. Highs Friday afternoon will likely still reach the 100s deg F across most locations (unless shower/storm coverage is more widespread.

A stronger, reinforcing cold front will advance southward in tandem with the shortwave trough late Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler/less hot weather into the area. Even with a stronger front, the most appreciable cold air advection will remain to our northeast. As a result, the most significant cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. Across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas, the cool down will be more limited. With synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast, rain chances are very low/near zero.

High temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to range from the low 90s (north central Oklahoma) to around 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas). This relative cool down will continue into Sunday before warmer weather returns on Monday.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals with a modest southerly breeze and increasing mid/high cloudiness expected throughout the day into night.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 102 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 103 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 105 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 102 79 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 Durant OK 101 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.