textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Areas of fog with the potential for some locally dense fog are ongoing this morning.

- Above-normal temperatures expected through Wednesday with slightly cooler weather Thursday and Friday.

- Next chance for rain is late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Increasing low-level moisture and dew points have resulted in a warm, mid-November morning for most locations across Oklahoma and north Texas, with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to near 60 deg F (with the lowest temperatures near the Kansas/Oklahoma border). As a result of higher dew points advecting northward, most locations are experiencing steady or even rising temperatures. The moisture advection will result in the continued development of advection fog, with some dense fog likely. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for west-central Oklahoma, and there is a chance further expansion will be needed early this morning. The fog should dissipate by mid to late morning. In addition to fog, warm air advection and isentropic ascent will result in a few light showers across southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning. Any rainfall amounts will be very light to negligible (i.e., a trace to a few hundredths of an inch). In the wake of the morning fog, scattered to broken cloud cover will remain persistent across southern Oklahoma and north Texas today. Even so, warm morning temperatures will set the stage for a warm afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 70s deg F, which is ~10 deg F above normal for mid-November.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fog is possible once again Wednesday morning, especially along and southeast of I-44 with a moist air mass still in place. A cold front/northerly wind shift will move through on Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes. With no significant cold air advection and some downslope warming off the higher terrain to the northwest, only a slight temperature decrease is expected behind the front (~5 to 7 deg F across the northern half of Oklahoma). Consequently, temperatures will remain above normal on Wednesday despite the frontal passage. Farther south, southern Oklahoma and western north Texas will see even warmer conditions, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s deg F ahead of the cold front due to veered low-level flow.

By Thursday, a longwave trough is forecast to develop across the eastern half of the country. As a result, a reinforcing backdoor cold front will advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east, with high pressure advancing southward across the Midwest. Since this is a backdoor cold front, the coolest air mass will advect into north central and northeast Oklahoma. Consequently, the cooldown will continue Thursday afternoon, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s (northeast) to the mid 70s deg F (southwest).

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Cool, near-normal temperatures will occur on Friday as Oklahoma and north Texas remain under the influence of a surface high that remains in place across the Midwest, which will result in light east-to-northeast flow (continuing the cold air advection). Temperatures should see a slight moderation on Saturday with a return to southerly winds. However, increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system will likely temper the warmup.

By late Saturday into Sunday, a shortwave trough will lift into the Plains, bringing a chance of rain. Elevated instability will be present, so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible. There is the potential for appreciable rainfall, with a 20 to 40% chance of receiving half an inch of rainfall. Depending on how heavy and widespread the rainfall is, Sunday could be a chilly day. Bias- corrected probabilistic guidance has a wide range of high temperatures from the upper 40s to the low 70s deg F (10th to 90th percentile), with the cooler end of guidance more likely if the rainfall/cloud cover is widespread enough. If the rain/cloud cover is more limited, the warmer end of guidance would occur.

For next week (especially the latter half of the week), deterministic models and their ensemble members indicate an increasing probability of a more active weather pattern, with southwest flow developing across the southwestern United States. As waves embedded within the southwest flow lift northeastward into the Plains, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern also appears unfavorable for any significant cooldown.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Widespread fog, including pockets of dense fog, has developed generally along-north of Interstate 40 in Oklahoma over the past hours. Expect several hours of IFR to LIFR vis for terminals in this general area. Fog is expected to rapidly dissipate in the ~14-16 UTC period this morning.

Afterwards, widespread VFR conditions are expected with a light south-southwesterly wind and mostly clear skies. Some patchy early morning fog is possible on Wednesday for areas along-east of Interstate 44, though the signal is not currently as confident/strong when compared to this morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 54 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 74 52 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 54 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 45 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 49 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 57 80 50 / 20 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ006>026.

TX...None.