textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

- Very strong northerly winds expected behind a cold front Sunday with a slight chance of rain/snow across north central Oklahoma.

- Dry conditions and mostly above normal temperatures expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The gusty south winds are diminishing this evening with the setting sun and thus fire weather conditions are improving across the area. The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire at 8PM CDT. The low- level jet will increase overnight ahead of the approaching cold front and bring continued low-end breezy south winds through the early morning hours. The cold front is still expected to enter northern Oklahoma shortly before sunrise and be through much of the forecast area by the late morning to early afternoon hours. Expect winds to shift to the northeast following the frontal boundary.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Lee troughing will extend into the Panhandles by late afternoon, while surface high pressure shifts into northeast Texas and Louisiana. The gradient between the two will produce a gusty southwest wind with the strongest winds expected across west central and northwestern Oklahoma (occasional wind gusts of 35-40 mph). With dry return flow, afternoon humidity is expected to approach 15-20 percent across much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Near-critical to perhaps critical fire weather conditions this afternoon will improve this evening, as humidity slowly improves.

A moderate to breezy southerly wind is expected this evening and overnight with a rather strong and veered low-level jet developing. With the wind remaining strong enough, overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 40s with cooler reading in sheltered areas.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night/Sunday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A weak cold front will move across parts of northern Oklahoma on Friday bringing northeast to easterly surface winds. Surface low pressure in southwestern Oklahoma will gradually move southward into northern Texas during the day. This will bring a southeast to east flow across most of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas with a gradual increase in higher dewpoint temperatures.

Surface winds will become breezy on Saturday afternoon, as a surface low deepens across northwest Kansas. The low will track to the east Saturday night, as an upper level disturbance moves across the northern and central Rockies. By early Sunday morning, a rather strong cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma. The front will push rather quickly southeast during the day with wind gusts of 50- 55 mph behind the front. As the upper air disturbance moves across northern Oklahoma during the afternoon, a brief period of rain/snow will be possible.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A strong cold front will move in Sunday, with much drier air in its wake. The combination of dry air and strong winds will foster near critical to critical fire weather conditions for most of the area Sunday afternoon. A hard freeze is expected Monday morning which will affect vulnerable vegetation. Below average temperatures expected Monday afternoon before a warm up back to well-above normal by the middle to end of the week.

Bunker

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with overnight winds of 10 to 15 knots and increasing low-level wind shear out of the southwest at 40 to 50 knots through the early morning hours. A cold front will bring a wind shift to the northeast across northern Oklahoma near sunrise. The front will continue to push southward through the morning and early afternoon hours with northeast winds expected directly behind the frontal passage at all terminals, but winds will continue to veer to the east through the afternoon. Winds are likely to remain out of the south at DUA, with a high likelihood of the front washing out before reaching the terminal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 45 74 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 42 77 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 45 79 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 71 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 42 70 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 44 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.