textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Rainfall is expected across much of the area from Friday evening to Saturday evening. A few instances of severe weather (primarily 1-2 inch hail) are possible.

- Fire weather returns next week, with Tuesday-Thursday currently forecast to have the greatest fire risk.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain chances will remain minimal for most of the day despite steadily increasing theta-E. Surface observations show a weak surface low developing in southwest Oklahoma with a plume of low-to- mid 50s dewpoints slowly pooling in the region. Despite this + enough surface heating to remove the capping inversion by this afternoon, storm development is not likely to occur until near/after sunset when a 20-30 kt LLJ develops and forcing increases with the approach of the lead wave. Storms will be elevated atop a nocturnal stable layer, but strong to extreme cloud-layer shear (50 knots LCL- EL, trending toward 90 knots after midnight) will support at least transiently rotating updrafts capable of severe hail. The zone for this activity will most likely be maximized just north of the surface warm front, primarily northwest of I-44.

As the night goes on, updrafts will tend to congeal and upscale into a line of sorts along an advancing Pacific front/dry slot. Initial forward progression of the line will be slow before cold pool dynamics begin to establish, meaning a ribbon of 2-3 (and potentially sporadic reports of 3-4) inches of rain is possible within a Goldilocks zone. That zone is likeliest to be just northwest of I-44, but could plausibly be centered anywhere from Seiling to Norman.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue into the start of the short-term period tomorrow morning. The squall line will eventually begin a forward progression toward and beyond I-35. How strong this squall line is, and whether or not any surface-based instability exists for embedded mesovortices, will be a factor of the quality of moisture advection and the degree of return flow suppression by prior convection. Less prior storms would mean an overperforming warm sector and a risk for weak embedded wind gusts/tornadoes for south central Oklahoma. This risk will end as the line departs by noon.

Behind that, a marked decrease in rain coverage is expected. This will coincide with drier air moving over the region at 700 mb and will lead to most areas seeing at least a lull in precipitation during the early afternoon hours. Broken sunshine is even possible further to the west near the upper low. The potential for some warming + rapidly cooling temperatures aloft will kick off one final round of storms. These will be much smaller and slow-moving, so the rainfall footprint will be much spottier. With that said, sufficient instability exists for severe hail and potentially a landspout risk near any existing boundaries.

Overall, expect most of the CWA to see 1-2 inches of extremely beneficial rain. Unfortunately, the trend in recent guidance is to a much sharper cutoff in rainfall totals on the northwest side. From Woodward to the northwest, the potential for 1/4 inch or less of rain looks to be growing.

A solid cold front will move through following the passage of the upper low, helping to dry us out once and for all. With that said, don't expect temperatures to drop much on Sunday; like much of this winter, the postfrontal air will likely still be warmer than normal.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Upper ridge building in Monday and increasing south winds will bring warmer temperatures, with highs well into the 70s (as much as 20-25 degrees warmer than average). A series of lows originating from the Pacific will be tracking across the Central Plains through mid-week. A tightening pressure gradient with these surface lows will result in windy conditions, especially late Monday into Tuesday night enhanced by mixing into a strong southerly low-level jet. Increasing surface moisture will be sharpening up a dryline across western Texas with very dry air from New Mexico spreading across the Texas/OK Panhandles. This will all increase fire weather conditions on Tuesday & Wednesday with the highest fire danger risked area across our west where the dryline will be punching through. For now Tuesday will have the highest/critical fire danger risk with Red Flag conditions possible. A potential Pacific cold front may come through lowering temperatures toward Thursday.

68

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms will initiate over the next few hours across portions of western into central Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Coverage will increase eastward overnight with a line of storms moving west to east by the morning hours tomorrow. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm, along with reduction in visibility. Ceilings will drop late to MVFR to LIFR early tomorrow morning and continue through the evening hours. A surface low will bring a potential for another round of scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 58 67 48 61 / 90 90 50 0 Hobart OK 55 70 46 67 / 90 90 30 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 71 50 68 / 90 90 50 0 Gage OK 48 65 39 67 / 70 60 20 0 Ponca City OK 53 66 45 64 / 100 90 40 0 Durant OK 60 67 52 63 / 70 100 60 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.