textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 549 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday and Tuesday across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Hot and mostly dry with low rain/storm chances returning Tuesday and into the end of the week across portions of northern Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Another pleasant summer like day today with highs similar to yesterday in the 90s and potentially approaching triple digits across southwest Oklahoma and into western north Texas. The surface high will be over Oklahoma today with light and variable winds and mostly sunny skies. By this evening, winds will veer to the east southeast as the surface ridge pushes eastward. Mostly clear skies tonight and radiational cooling with allow low temperatures to once again drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Monday will feature warming temperatures as the upper trough moves over Georgia and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest expands eastward into the Southern Plains and brings height rises to the forecast area. A shortwave will pass north of the ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains with lee troughing bringing a return to southerly surface winds. Triple digit heat will return to areas roughly west of I-35, with upper 90s elsewhere. Where ambient air temperatures are the warmest, daytime mixing will keep drier air in place and relative humidity values as low as the upper teens to 20s. Thus, heat indices will be around or only a degree or two away from the ambient air temperature. With borderline temperatures of near 105 degrees across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, a Heat Advisory will not be issued for Monday.

Triple digit heat will return to most of the area Tuesday with a higher chance for a Heat Advisory across at least portions of southwest and south central Oklahoma near the Red River and into adjacent western north Texas with highs near 105-107 degrees. With the passing shortwave aloft, the lee low will be pushed southeastward during the day Tuesday. Surface winds will generally remain southerly with continued dry air mixing and minimum relative humidity values of upper teens to 20s spread farther east into Oklahoma. Thus, heat indices will once again be around the ambient air temperature through the day.

The surface low will push southeast into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into the evening bringing with it a weak surface front. Low end precipitation chances (<20%) were added Tuesday and Tuesday night with the potential for this frontal boundary to stall across northwest Oklahoma by late Tuesday. Soundings indicate very high cloud bases with most of the precipitation falling as virga, with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg will support the potential for strong to locally severe downburst winds.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Model blends suggest the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over Kansas. However, a few deterministic models (NAM/GFS) indicate the front could sag into northwest Oklahoma late Tuesday and remain in the area for a few days. As a result, there is at least a low chance of showers/storms (15%) over northern Oklahoma on Wednesday through Thursday with chances in that vicinity rising to near 30% on Thursday evening.

Given the uncertainty in frontal placement and rain chances, temperature box plots for these locations widen beginning Wednesday. Still, heat is expected to persist for the majority of the area and humidity rises middle to end of next week as dewpoint temperatures rise into the 60's and low 70's. Heat headlines are possible for portions of the area Wednesday through Saturday.

Thompson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Clear skies continue tonight and into tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting easterly right now and will become southerly by midday tomorrow. Gusts up to 20 knots are likely during the afternoon in western Oklahoma.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 69 102 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 102 72 101 / 0 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 68 97 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 69 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.