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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend into next week with occasional elevated fire weather conditions.

- A stronger cold front may bring slightly below normal temperatures by early next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Light westerly winds will veer back to the north later this morning as surface high passes by to the northeast toward Arkansas. Winds will become light and variable this afternoon and gradually shift toward the south across the west.

As a result of the close proximity to the surface high, temperatures along and east of Hwy 81 will be similar to yesterday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F (seasonable for mid- January). West of Hwy 81, a return to southerly winds by late afternoon (and farther distance from the surface high) will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to near 60 deg F.

While relative humidity values will fall to near 20% across far western Oklahoma, light winds will keep fire weather conditions low today.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Warmer, above-normal temperatures return Monday and Tuesday as west to southwest winds return and a downslope-warmed air mass advects into the Southern Plains. Temperatures by Monday afternoon are expected to be back into the 60s deg F. Even warmer weather is expected on Tuesday as the low-level thermal ridge strengthens ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures will be near 70 deg F in some locations. Depending on the strengthen of the winds, brief, elevated fire weather conditions are possible both days.

By Tuesday night, a cold front will advance southward into Oklahoma as a trough amplifies and digs across the eastern United States. The cold air will lag behind the initial wind shift, so no appreciable cold air is expected to arrive Tuesday night.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Appreciable cold air advection will advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas on Wednesday as winds veer to the north and increase in speed. These northerly winds will likely become quite gusty with 30 to 40 knot 850 mb winds. With strengthening cold air advection, a non-diurnal temperature trend is possible in the afternoon with steady and/or falling temperatures across parts of the area.

By Thursday, winds are expected to quickly return to the south as the attendant surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. With west to southwest flow just above the surface, a downslope-warmed air mass will be move into western Oklahoma and north Texas by the afternoon. As a result, temperatures across the western half of the area will be higher on Thursday than on Wednesday. Across the east, high temperatures on Thursday will be close to Wednesday's highs.

By Friday into Saturday, persistent shortwave troughs embedded in the large-scale trough will allow additional cold fronts to move through. Currently, the coldest day looks to be Saturday with the highest probability of slightly below normal temperatures (highs generally in the low 40s to near 50 deg F). With Oklahoma and north Texas being on the western edge of the large-scale trough, any cold air intrusions look to be brief as downslope-warming off the higher terrain will quickly erode any cold air as surface highs shift to the east. Precipitation chances remain low/near zero.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the region through the period under clear skies and with light-variable surface winds.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 51 33 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 56 29 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 31 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.