textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through Sunday, with chances increasing and expanding over the northern half of Oklahoma Sunday and Sunday night.

- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme heat for northern Oklahoma Monday.

- Dangerous heat continues through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Another very hot afternoon across Oklahoma and western north Texas, where a Heat Advisory continues for all of western, central and southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas through 7pm this evening and then continues for all but the western row or two of counties tonight and through the day Sunday.

In addition, the combination of very dry vegetation and drought along with the extreme heat will result in elevated fire weather this afternoon into the early evening hours across portions of the area. There could also be a concern if any convection develops in northwest Oklahoma with the potential for lightning caused fire starts.

Speaking of convection, a surface "cold" front will move into southwest Kansas by this afternoon, which will be a focus for storm development later today. Although much of the convective activity is expected to remain north and west of the area, if a storm is able to move into northwest Oklahoma, it will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts.

The low-end risk for convection will continue tonight across far northwest Oklahoma, but the risk of severe weather will diminish as we go deeper into the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The associated front will also slide a bit further south overnight and is expected to be located near a Ponca City to Elk City line by morning.

A reason that we will keep the advisory going is because of the lack of any real relief overnight as many locations are expected to only drop into the lower 80s by Sunday morning. Northwest Oklahoma may get a bit of a break as they will be to the north of the front for a good portion of the overnight period.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The aforementioned front will approach I-40 Sunday afternoon with slightly less hot conditions across far northern Oklahoma, but still all but far northwest Oklahoma will likely climb above 100 degrees. In addition will continue to have a Heat Advisory for all but western portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas, where temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain just below advisory criteria.

By Sunday afternoon, along and north of the front there will be at least a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Keep fingers crossed that some areas could see at least a little rain and no strong wind gusts to go along with it. If any storms do develop, will need to be mindful of dry lightning and possible fire starts associated with those strikes.

Models do show the front pushing into southern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday morning and at least a low chance of precip continuing at least across northern into central Oklahoma Monday morning. The front will begin to lift back to the north during the day Monday with rain chances diminishing through the day and likely confined to far northern Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.

The front should give a bit of reprieve of excessive heat and keeping the potential for any heat headlines confined to southern Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The hot temperatures will spread back north on Tuesday as the front dissipates and southerly flow returns across the area.

The operational medium-range models and many of the ensemble members are now trending toward the upper ridge shifting to the west and northwest flow aloft developing over the central and southern Plains by late in the week, so we may be trending toward seeing some lower temperatures late in the week. NBM still keeps temperature higher late next week than this pattern would suggest, but that will start catching up if this signal shows more run-to- run consistency. Despite the model trend showing this potential of shifting to northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances associated with this shift are still a little uncertain and dependent on how much of the ridge still reaches into the southern Plains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. S to SW winds this afternoon becoming more southerly this evening. A boundary is expected to move into parts of NW OK late tonight/early Sunday and then move across parts of OK Sunday morning causing winds to shift. Some showers/storms possible in NW OK late this afternoon into tonight. Right now it looks like the best chances would remain NW and N of the TAF sites. However, some activity may approach KWWR this evening but chances are too low for mention in TAF. Variable, strong winds possible near any storms this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 102 78 102 74 / 0 0 30 20 Hobart OK 104 77 104 73 / 0 0 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 104 78 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 104 71 96 67 / 0 10 20 60 Ponca City OK 105 77 100 72 / 0 0 20 30 Durant OK 103 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010- 014>016-021-022-033>035.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.