textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall/flooding this afternoon into Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions and cooler, seasonable temperatures are expected Saturday and into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

After a pleasant day of weather on Thursday, another round of strong- to-severe thunderstorms and heavy rain/flooding potential arrives this afternoon and continues through the night.

Current satellite imagery captures a broad upper trough meandering eastward across the Rocky Mountains, while a rather active branch of the subtropical jet begins to impinge across the area. At the surface, a cold front continues to sink slowly southeastward across northern portions of the area, currently extending from ~Cheyenne to Cherokee.

Expectation remains for the development of scattered thunderstorms along the length of the front in the 2-5 PM timeframe, as synoptic-scale ascent begins to overspread the area. Thunderstorm development is likely to continue during the evening into night, especially as a warm air advection/isentropic pattern increases near the front after sunset.

The combination of strong (>2500 J/kg MLCAPE) instability and ~40 kts of deep-layer wind shear will promote organized thunderstorms. A large hail and damaging wind risk will likely accompany the initial phase (i.e., supercell mode) of the convective event, with the main risk transitioning towards occasional damaging wind gusts as upscale growth occurs throughout the evening. While a deep moist profile may temper the wind risk some, local corridors of more focused risk are possible associated with rear-inflow jet/surges of more organized linear convective segments along and ahead of the front.

While not zero, the risk for tornadoes is expected to remain limited this evening and tonight, primarily owing to weak low- level wind shear and potential for undercutting effects from storm-scale outflows and eventually the front. However, as a low- level jet (and attendant low-level wind shear) increases after sunset near and east of the I-35 corridor, will closely monitor for potential of a tornado or two. This would be especially true should an organized storm or two develop within a broad zone of near-surface convergence during the mid-evening, as a few near- term guidance members have shown this morning.

Perhaps the greatest risk (at least from a coverage perspective) looks to be heavy rainfall and the associated potential for flooding, especially in areas along/east of I-44 and along/south of I-40 late this evening into early Saturday. A combination of >95th percentile (from a seasonal perspective) preciptable water, slow storm motions and potential for multiple or repeated rounds of thunderstorms drives this concern. A Flood Watch has been initiated for portions of the aforementioned area from 4 PM Friday to 9 AM Saturday morning.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Saturday will be dreary/rainy early, especially near and south of the Red River. We currently expect all areas to be precipitation free by the early afternoon, with post-frontal cloudiness clearing from northwest-to-southeast throughout the day. Daytime highs (low to upper-60s) will be the coolest of the next several days, especially where clouds linger into the afternoon (i.e., central and southeastern Oklahoma).

Conditions begin to moderate on Sunday, as greater influence from an expanding western US upper ridge begins to be felt across the region. Peak daytime readings look to run from the low to mid-70s across the region with mostly clear skies and a light north to east wind. Very splendid weather for outdoor activities to close out the weekend!

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Seasonable and dry conditions will continue into Monday with northwest flow aloft. The flow will become westerly by Tuesday, which will result in lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. In response, a strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds.

Moisture advection appears somewhat limited, so a dry return flow (DRF) pattern for fire weather is possible Tuesday afternoon with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across northwest Oklahoma. This area is expected to receive limited to no rainfall with today's system, so the fuels will likely be susceptible wildfire spread.

The breezy southerly winds will likely continue Wednesday and Thursday with the continued risk for some fire weather conditions; however, increasing moisture advection should limit the risk by Thursday.

The next chance for appreciable rainfall looks to be late Thursday into the upcoming weekend as both deterministic models and ensemble members indicate southwest flow aloft will likely develop across the Southern Plains.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Gusty south winds will continue ahead of a front bringing gusty north winds behind it. This front is currently passing by KWWR and will continue southeast through the evening. Storms are expected to initiate along this front, starting mid afternoon, and merge into a line as they sweep southeastward. One or two isolated storms will be possible out ahead of the front in south central Oklahoma this afternoon as well, but those chances are low.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 63 41 70 / 90 10 0 0 Hobart OK 49 69 39 72 / 80 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 53 66 43 71 / 90 50 0 0 Gage OK 41 65 36 75 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 45 62 37 70 / 60 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 63 44 70 / 100 90 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ023>032-035-037>048- 050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ086-089-090.