textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1027 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Tuesday due to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- Warm temperatures, coupled with breezy and dry conditions, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures are possible behind a cold front Saturday night along with some precipitation.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Tightening of the pressure gradient is ongoing across our FA, with a surface low positioned over southeast Colorado and high pressure along the Florida gulf coast. Widespread south-southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue this afternoon as mechanical mixing taps into the LLJ. Also noted is substantial drying on low-level water vapor imagery across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, which is indicative of strong subsidence and ongoing downsloping winds. These are the areas where warmest temperatures are anticipated this afternoon, and we have raised forecast high temperatures over parts of far western, southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Also observed is a plume of higher moisture with near 30 deg dewpoint temperatures advecting into parts of western north Texas and south- central Oklahoma. This plume will continue to advect northeastward this afternoon/evening and lead to a moisture gradient near the I-44 corridor. The weather conditions described above, coupled with anomalously dry vegetation, will generate elevated to near critical conditions along a zone from western north Texas to east-central Oklahoma. It should be noted that the current state of vegetative fuel loading has been determined, in collaboration with state forestry partners, to be above normal to exceptional. So, even with elevated fire weather conditions over the coming days, vegetation will be quite vulnerable to fire starts. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM this evening.

Winds will relax this evening as a surface low descends across the panhandle from southeastern Colorado, and relative humidity will recover for much of the forecast area overnight with southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas not rising above 30% until dawn on Wednesday. Meanwhile, as the surface low progresses across and a weak frontal boundary enters Oklahoma, winds to shift to the north for about the northern half of Oklahoma.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

By early Wednesday morning, the aforementioned surface low is prog'd to be over southwest Oklahoma and this feature will reach north-central Texas by early afternoon. North winds at 5 to 15 mph will shift northeast by afternoon and weak CAA will lead to somewhat cooler conditions over northern Oklahoma. High temperatures will range from the upper-60's (north OK) to upper-70's (southern areas). With the lighter winds and slightly higher humidity, fire weather concerns are low for Wednesday.

A weakening cold front then arrives in northern Oklahoma late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, and cooler (though still above-average) temperatures are expected for Thursday. Light rain chances have gone down with this system. The overall fire risk is low, but far western portions of Oklahoma/adjacent north Texas could see RH-driven elevated conditions on Thursday afternoon.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

There is good agreement with the deterministic models Friday into Saturday, but probabilistic guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with a passage of a cold front. The current timing of the front is late Saturday afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma with the front stalling across southern Oklahoma northern Texas on Sunday. The air mass associated with the front appears rather cold, but shallow, so there is certainly a chance the front will push farther south than current guidance. The mid-level flow is also expected to become more westerly late in the weekend with at least one disturbances moving across the southern Plains. This may result in rain and perhaps elevated storms, mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma. For now will go with a blend of guidance and hope much needed precipitation occurs with this frontal passage.

Friday and Saturday currently appear to be more problematic with respect with fire weather conditions. A southerly wind is expected to increase across the western half of Oklahoma Friday afternoon with very warm and dry conditions. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday, but humidity is expected to be higher with a modest southerly wind. Clouds and humidity will help alleviate fire concerns across at least the northern half of Oklahoma Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Surface winds will become northeast to north overnight into early Wednesday, as a surface low moves across southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas. KDUA will maintain a southerly flow through at least Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, very strong low-level winds will create wind shear across the southern half of Oklahoma through about 9-12Z Wednesday. The wind will become light and variable ahead of a cold front Wednesday evening with VFR conditions prevailing through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 45 74 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 41 76 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 50 79 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 37 73 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 40 70 45 68 / 0 0 10 0 Durant OK 52 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.