textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 553 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- A few strong to severe storms possible along/south of the Red River this afternoon.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected for middle to late week across the area.

- Next chance for showers and storms arrives next Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms and embedded thunderstorms continue across much of the area well to the north of a front that has pushed into north TX as of early afternoon. Elevated instability to the north of the boundary is fairly limited across central OK, but remains in the 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the Red River. As a subtle shortwave moves eastward out of NM this will likely reinvigorate convection across southwest OK into western north TX through the remainder of the afternoon. Large hail up to golf ball size will be the main risk with these storms as they will be elevated well north of the frontal boundary, but can't rule out a strong wind gust or two.

Thunderstorm activity will shift southward by early evening, with lingering showers expected to exit the area by midnight tonight. Could see some patchy fog development tonight as winds go light and clouds clear given wet ground conditions, but at this time do not expect widespread dense fog. Temperatures will cool into the 40s across northern OK where clouds will clear earlier, with 50s for lows across the remainder of the area.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Drier air will continue to filter into the area on Monday with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 70s with plenty of sun expected. Winds will be relatively light but will veer through the day, becoming south/southeast during the afternoon. Warming mid level temperatures and strengthening southerly/southwesterly low- level flow will bring much warmer conditions on Tuesday, especially across western OK and western north TX where highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 90s Tuesday afternoon. Low end elevated fire weather is possible across far western/northwestern OK Tuesday afternoon, but recent rainfall will hopefully help to mitigate this risk. A cold front will work southward into northern OK late in the day Tuesday, but with warm mid level temperatures and only modest moisture return ahead of the boundary, the current expectation is that the cap will be too strong to overcome in our area (better chances of that happening to our north).

Ware

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Upper ridge will remain in control through Thursday before a couple of upper shortwaves break it down. In advance of the initial wave, lee troughing will result in increasing south winds Wednesday night and Thursday. The gusty south winds will combine with hot temperatures and low afternoon humidity to result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma Thursday afternoon.

The strong, gusty south winds will continue both Friday into Saturday with only minimal rain chances and hot afternoon temperatures. Fire weather conditions will also remain elevated across far western and northwestern Oklahoma where vegetation remains in a transition phase due to lack of precipitation. A stronger longwave trough moves through the central part of the country by Saturday dragging a cold front into the area, which may bring temperatures down at least a few degrees and also bring a chance of rain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

MVFR conditions are currently lingering over KSM and KOUN with light showers expected to shift southward from central Oklahoma within the next hour or so. Scattered thunderstorms over western north Texas are expected to diminish and exit within the next few hours, and chances for severe wind/hail has gone down significantly for the evening. Tonight, winds become light (and variable in some locales) with patchy fog possible over northwest and western Oklahoma. Tomorrow will be beautiful with mostly sunny skies and light southeast winds by afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 76 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 49 81 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 54 81 56 88 / 30 0 0 0 Gage OK 41 79 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 46 77 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 58 77 56 81 / 60 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.