textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and humid for Independence Day which will create a risk for heat related illnesses.

- Increased chances for storms in northern and central Oklahoma by the late afternoon and evening hours on Independence Day. Some storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Another hot day for Independence Day with above average temperatures in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Continued low-level moisture will bring heat indices into the 100 to 109 degrees across portions of central into eastern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the aforementioned area from Noon to 8PM. Conditions are aligning for a high heat risk across most of the forecast area, which keeps the main message as heat-related illnesses are possible with time spent outdoors.

A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon/evening with increased storm chances. There remains some uncertainty in the exact timing of the front across various 00z model runs. However, storms appear to be most likely in northern to portions of central Oklahoma by the late afternoon and evening hours, which could pose a risk for any outdoor activities/fireworks. Instability will support strong to severe thunderstorm development with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado may be possible with any storm near the surface boundary. A shortwave aloft may lead to upscale growth of storms later in the evening and overnight hours to the southeast. The main hazard would become damaging winds, but hail will still be possible.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The front will be approaching southern Oklahoma and western north Texas by Sunday morning. Depending on the timing and location of the front, the chances for showers and storms may continue through the day across portions of southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Additionally, diurnally driven storms in West Texas combined with a weak disturbance in the flow aloft may bring more storm chances through southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon into the evening. Some storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Depending on the frontal timing, cooler temperatures may be in store for portions of northern into central Oklahoma with highs in the lower to mid 90s versus the upper 90s to triple digits.

Monday will feature light surface winds returning to the south and temperatures remaining near average in the 90s. Chances remain low for shower and storm activity Monday, but diurnally driven convection cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The ridge will continue to spin to our west with heat remaining through the week. Widespread triple digit heat may be possible towards the end of the week. The pattern aloft will continue to generally be northwest flow, which could lead to daily diurnally driven storms off the higher terrain into Oklahoma. This type of setup typically favors portions of northern into central Oklahoma as storms struggle to maintain intensity farther south past sunset with little to no forcing aloft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through the overnight hours. Reduced visibilities and gusty winds will be possible with any activity. A weak front will move in during the latter half of the period, causing winds to shift to the north behind the boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 75 93 71 / 0 60 20 20 Hobart OK 101 74 96 71 / 0 20 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 101 77 100 73 / 0 10 20 20 Gage OK 101 69 93 67 / 20 30 0 10 Ponca City OK 97 72 88 70 / 20 70 40 10 Durant OK 97 77 95 75 / 20 20 20 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>032-039>048-050>052.

TX...None.