textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Mostly dry with a warming trend this coming week.

- Low precipitation chances return late week into next weekend, mainly western/northwestern OK.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

The southerly winds have returned, with higher/gustier winds across northwestern Oklahoma closer to the deepening surface low east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in Colorado/New Mexico. Despite the southerly winds, low-level moisture will remain limited as offshore flow continues along the Texas Gulf Coast. The only significant modification to the NBM forecast was to the surface dewpoints today and tonight (and actually through Tuesday). The near-term dewpoint grids were already significantly overdone by 10 degrees or so in some places, due to the NBM applying bias correction apparently to a low bias that does not exist to that extent with this post-frontal airmass. NBM dewpoints were higher than the high end of the guidance envelope as well as much higher than current obs. So reduced the forecast dewpoints quite a bit from the NBM forecast.

With the southerly flow and having more wind as the surface ridge moves east, low temperatures will be warmer than recent mornings and be closer to average for this time of year.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

No significant weather is expected in the short term with southerly flow and a day-to-day warming trend. Again decreased the forecast dewpoints through Tuesday as mentioned above and surface ridging persist over south Texas preventing gulf moisture from beginning a return trip toward north Texas and Oklahoma.

One potential thing to watch for is the model signal for some precipitation Monday night/Tuesday morning in northwest Oklahoma where some moderate isentropic lift develops, especially on the 310K isentropic surface. But with the concern of low-level moisture availability, this may be high enough to primarily be virga if any convection develops at all, so the potential of measurable precipitation looks too low to mention at this time.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Upper ridging will continue to hold over the area through the end of the week as a large cutoff low over the west coast makes only slow progress eastward. The majority of model guidance now takes this low well to our northwest, weakening as it does so, and have backed off on precipitation chances in our area accordingly. Chances are now limited to 20-30% next weekend, mainly across western/northwestern OK. Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week with continued height rises, with highs back into the low to mid 80s for most locations by Thursday and Friday.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Southerly winds will have some diurnal breeziness this afternoon, particularly in northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 49 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 50 71 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 49 74 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 48 70 50 72 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 49 71 51 73 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 46 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.