textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record heat likely Wednesday into Thursday with near-critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Cooler Friday into Saturday.

- Rain chances extremely low for another week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Dry weather continues once again across the area. If we didn't need rain so badly, this would be considered a nice day. Near normal temperatures and light winds today and tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Things will begin to warm up somewhat tomorrow, as the 90s return. Record highs are currently forecast at all 3 long term climate sites on Wednesday and again on Thursday. South winds will begin to increase to 10 to 20 mph with the occasional gust to 30 on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night will be the main area of concern, and there is already a Fire Weather Watch issued for a big chunk of the area. By Thursday afternoon, south winds will increase to over 30 mph, and a few gusts to 40-50 mph. This will be at the same time of RH values less than 20%, and temperatures in the low to mid 90s. By Thursday night, the next cold front is due to move through in the late afternoon and early evening. Like most Spring time cold fronts, this one will have equally strong winds out of the north immediately behind the boundary for a few hours.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Easy way to write the long term forecast is "no rain." While that would be true through Monday, it doesn't quite give the full story. So, going beyond the 7 day forecast, things are beginning to look better and better for a pattern change towards the end of next week. Extended models and their ensembles are trending towards a wetter solution by nearly all accounts, and there remains some hope for rainfall by the end of next week.

Before then, temperatures will cool down by Friday and Saturday, before warming into the 80s by Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions with high clouds moving across the area. Some low VFR ceilings may move in again late tonight into early Wednesday at KDUA/KOKC/KOUN. Winds will continue to shift towards the S and SW by Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

As mentioned above, Thursday will be the next main concern, as windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected. Going a bit deeper, we have a few things conspiring within this pattern:

* Fuels remain extremely dry and cured. Even with some minimal humidity recovery during the overnight hours, the fuels remain ripe. ERC values are expected to be in the 85th-95th percentile on Thursday afternoon and evening. * Temperature anomalies are in the +30 degree range with the record highs forecast. * Relative humidity forecast values will drop below 20% during the afternoon and early evening hours. The cold front will briefly usher in slightly higher humidity, before dropping further. * Surface winds will be strong, along with higher gusts. A jet streak at 850mb will move southwest to northeaast through the day, allowing for gusts to exceed 45 mph for an extended portion of the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 59 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 56 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 51 94 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 53 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 60 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ004>031-033>040-044.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ083>088.