textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Elevated fire danger risk Saturday afternoon in parts of western OK and western north TX.

- Dry with above/well above average, including some near or record, temperatures expected through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 605 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Updated hourly temperatures and winds according to the latest short-term model consensus. This lowered high temperatures a few degrees for the northern half of Oklahoma and increased post- frontal winds. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions have expanded into western Oklahoma - namely, Dewey, Custer, and Washita Counties. While relative humidity will not be as low as in western north Texas, the fire weather conditions will be primarily wind-driven.

Thompson

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Breezy southerly winds will continue overnight into early Saturday, except in northern parts of the fa where a pre-frontal trough/sfc low is expected to move into the area causing winds to decrease. With the breezy winds and some cloud cover, temperatures are not expected to drop quite as much tonight compared to Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to 40s across the area early Saturday.

Models show a cold front moving across the area Saturday causing winds to shift to the north and northeast behind the front. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s in northern OK to the 70s and low 80s in southern OK and western north TX.

Fire Weather: Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday afternoon in parts of southwest OK and western north TX. A prefrontal "torch" being possible in this area leading to high temperatures in the mid 70s to possibly low 80s. These well above average temperatures will combine with low RH (min RH 12-20%) and dry vegetation to increase the fire weather conditions. Another complicating factor for any fires that do start will be the wind shift associated with the passage of the cold front. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for parts of southwest OK and western north TX.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Cooler but not cold air will move into the region behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. This will lead to lows ranging from the mid 20s in NW OK to the low/mid 40s in SE parts of the fa. Temperatures on Sunday will also be cooler compared to Saturday with highs in the 50s to low 60s across the area. These temperatures are closer to but still above average.

South to southwest winds are expected to return to the area by Monday along with warmer (highs mid 60s to mid 70s) temperatures. These temperatures start a trend of well above average temperatures for next week. Monday's forecast highs are 15 to 20 degrees F above average.

Dewpoints will also be on the rise Sunday into Monday which will help mitigate the potential for additional days of fire weather concerns across most if not all of the fa.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The zonal upper pattern that is forecast to be across the area this weekend is expected to shift with an upper ridge building over the southern Plains next week. This pattern will continue the dry forecast with well above average temperatures for much of next week.

In fact, some of the forecast highs and lows next week would tie or break records for warmest highs and lows, including on Christmas Day.

In addition to the well above average temperatures, a moist airmass is expected to remain in place next week with dewpoints in the 50s and possibly low 60s across at least parts of the fa.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

LLWS remains possible this morning. Breezy south/southwesterly winds shift to the north as a cold front passes with gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected by mid-morning to mid-day for northern and west-central Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 35 56 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 33 56 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 38 57 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 26 55 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 57 32 55 42 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 72 46 60 49 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.