textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the entire area beginning Friday morning through Sunday morning. - There is a medium to high chance (60-80%) of snowfall accumulations of 6+ inches across at least the northern half of Oklahoma.

- Lower snowfall totals across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, with significant sleet accumulations.

- The best chance for a 1/4 inch of ice will be across far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, and especially our southeastern counties.

- There is a very high (>95%) chance for very cold temperatures across the area Friday into Sunday, with wind chills below 0F likely.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Southerly winds will continue to advect moisture northward into at least northern Texas and southern Oklahoma this afternoon and tonight. This will result in an increase of low clouds for some and also a relatively warm night for areas south of roughly I-40. A frigid air mass is in place across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and this air will shift southward tonight into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1245 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Unlike most very cold air intrusion into the southern Plains, this air mass will arrive with a northeast surface flow compared to north and northwest winds. This will result in a slightly slower, gradual "cool down", especially across parts of our southeastern counties on Friday.

Currently, it appears most areas along and north of I-40 will be below freezing by 9 am and along and northwest of a Ada to Ardmore line by 3 pm. Isentropic ascent is expected to increase after sunrise Friday, especially across the western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. This may result in areas of rain/freezing rain, and perhaps enough for a light glaze across west central and northwest Oklahoma.

Friday afternoon and especially Friday night, model soundings suggest a deep, saturated layer from near the surface to the equilibrium level. There will also be a prominent warm nose, especially across the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. The NAM soundings, which are warmer, indicate some potential for convective elements which will increase precipitation amounts/intensity. Still a little difficult to discern if the depth of the cold layer will be sufficient for mainly sleet, especially across southwestern Oklahoma and northern Texas. South central and southeastern Oklahoma should have a better chance of seeing freezing rain with some ice accumulation possible. Farther north, mainly sleet and snow are expected with snow the likely type across the northern third of Oklahoma.

The colder air will continue to deepen some on Saturday with a gradual decrease in the warm layer/nose. This should bring better chances of mainly sleet across the southern third/half of Oklahoma and northern Texas, with mainly snow favored across northern Oklahoma. Will need to watch our far southeastern counties as freezing rain may continue on Saturday.

There are also some indications of slightly drier mid and upper levels across northern parts of the state on Saturday which will reduce precipitation intensity. The precipitation type should remain mainly snow with the dendritic growth zone near the surface.

As the southern stream system begins to phase with another shortwave trough moving across the central and southern Rockies, precipitation intensity will increase again Saturday night into Sunday morning. The precipitation type should be mainly snow across the northern half of Oklahoma, with a mix of snow and sleet across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Bottom line is, better snow accumulation are expected across the northern half/third of Oklahoma with significant sleet accumulations expected over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Our far southeastern counties will have the best chance of receiving up to a 1/4+ inch of ice from freezing rain.

Most of the accumulating winter precipitation is expected to end by Sunday afternoon, but very cold temperatures will continue into at least early next week. The Extreme Cold Weather Watch will be converted to a warning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1249 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Snowfall is expected to exit the area by Sunday morning into the afternoon. The extremely cold temperatures and wind chills are expected to stick around through at least Monday morning. Although next week appears to be dry for now, colder temperatures are expected to stick around -- with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens through mid week.

Bunker

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light southeast winds will back toward the east/northeast later tonight and become gusty from the northeast as a cold front moves through.

MVFR ceilings (stratus) are expected to develop across southwest later tonight with the greatest impacts expected at KSPS, KLAW, KCSM, and KWWR. Brief, IFR ceilings are possible--especially at KSPS.

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected as an area of freezing rain and sleet develops across western Oklahoma into western north Texas tomorrow morning. The wintry mix will expand north and east through the end of the TAF period.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 29 31 10 14 / 10 50 100 100 Hobart OK 30 32 9 14 / 10 60 100 100 Wichita Falls TX 37 40 16 20 / 10 90 100 100 Gage OK 20 23 2 9 / 10 50 100 100 Ponca City OK 21 23 5 10 / 0 40 100 100 Durant OK 39 41 22 24 / 10 80 100 100

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Sunday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to 9 AM CST Monday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Sunday for TXZ083>090.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ083>090.