textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 437 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions.

- A cold front Tuesday night will bring gusty northerly winds Wednesday and elevated fire weather conditions. - A stronger cold front towards the end of the week may bring a return to gusty winds and elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1207 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Temperatures are still expected to warm nearly 10-15 degrees above normal in the lower to mid 60s this afternoon. Warm temperatures coupled with dry air filling in from the west (relative humidity values as low as roughly 15-25 percent), will give way to elevated fire weather concerns across much of western Oklahoma and into western north Texas. The biggest caveat to fire weather concerns today will be wind speeds being only about 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. The elevated fire weather will be diurnally driven with the warming temperatures this afternoon. Thus, conditions should improve with the setting sun this evening. Mostly clear skies tonight with light winds will give way to radiational cooling, but still above normal morning temperatures Tuesday in the upper 20s to 30s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1207 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The warmest widespread temperatures will occur on Tuesday with once again warm downsloping air giving way to highs in the mid to upper 60s. Similar to today, as temperatures warm, conditions will dry across the forecast area. Relative humidity values will drop into the upper teens and 20s, which coupled with continued drought may lead to some elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours across portions of western north Texas and into far southwest Oklahoma. These fire conditions once again will be driven by dry air and fuels as surface winds are expected to remain less than 15 mph. A cutoff low passing east across Texas may bring some high clouds to north Texas and into far southern Oklahoma.

Tonight, a trough will dig into the Plains and Midwest bringing a cold front through Oklahoma Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. Winds will turn to the north and mid-to-high clouds will follow directly behind the frontal boundary. Thus, temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be mild for January with morning lows roughly 10-15 degrees above normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, an increasing low-level jet will bring increasing northerly winds Wednesday morning with much of the area potentially experiencing "feels like" temperatures in the 30s.

Clouds will remain fairly scattered with some broken decks through the day Wednesday. Strong 30-35 knot 850-mb winds will continue through the day with increased boundary layer mixing heading into the afternoon hours and giving way to gusty north winds. Winds will be around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Some low- level post-frontal moisture will increase dewpoints a bit Wednesday and with slightly cooler temperatures will give way to relative humidity values roughly above 30 percent. Thus, mostly wind driven elevated fire weather concerns will return again Wednesday across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

With the delay of the colder airmass, temperatures will still warm to above normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the southern portions of the area. Meanwhile, areas across the north may warm a slightly in the morning before temperatures hold steady or drop through the afternoon. The surface high will bring the colder airmass into Oklahoma overnight Wednesday into Thursday and with mostly clear skies and lighter winds, low temperatures for Thursday morning will be closer to normal for January (20s).

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Winds are expected to quickly return to the south on Thursday as the surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. With west to southwest flow just above the surface, a downslope-warmed air mass will advect into western Oklahoma and north Texas by the afternoon. With this impinging warmer air mass, temperatures across the western half of the area will be higher on Thursday than on Wednesday. High temperatures near the 100th meridian will be in the 60s deg F. Across the east, high temperatures will be seasonable in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

For Friday into Saturday, another cold front will advance southward as a shortwave trough rotates around the periphery of a longwave trough centered across the Great Lakes region. Currently, it looks similar to the midweek front where coldest air will lag behind the initial wind shift before a secondary, reinforcing shot of cold air dives southward. Precipitation chances remain low.

While Saturday has the highest probability of below normal temperatures, the magnitude of the cold air will be highly dependent on the track of surface high behind the front with the Southern Plains on the southwest edge of the trough. Probabilistic guidance indicates a large spread with high temperatures anywhere from the upper 30s/low 40s deg F to the mid 50s/mid 60s deg F. Even if the colder scenario occurs, any cold air intrusion will likely be brief as downslope-warming off the higher terrain to our west will quickly erode any cold air as the surface high moves to the east (as we've seen throughout this winter).

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Southwest winds will continue across the are this evening, slowly veering to the west by tomorrow. Northern TAF sites will see west-northwest winds by tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 36 67 43 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 30 67 41 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 34 67 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 30 67 36 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 32 66 40 51 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 38 66 43 58 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.