textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 556 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Tuesday due to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- Warm temperatures, coupled with breezy and dry conditions, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures are possible behind a cold front Saturday night along with some precipitation.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Despite a rather dry air mass in place (surface dewpoints in the 20s), the wind will remain strong enough to keep temperatures from cooling into the 20s. A 45-50 knot low-level jet will weaken some after 9 am, but enough mixing will occur through mid to late morning, for a short period of 40 to 45 mph wind gusts. These winds will be more prevalent across central Oklahoma.

By early afternoon, the stronger winds gusts (30+ mph) are expected to be confined to areas along and southeast of a Stillwater to Altus line. With very receptive fuels for fires (ERCs 70-89th percentile), low humidity and gusty winds will create an elevated to near-critical fire environment. A few mitigating factors for fire weather this afternoon will be lighter wind speeds across parts of west central and northwestern Oklahoma along with scattered to broken high clouds.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Surface low pressure is expected to track southeast from Oklahoma Panhandle and into southwestern Oklahoma and northern Texas this evening and overnight. This will shift surface winds to a northerly direction, especially across western Oklahoma. Ahead of the low, surface moisture will continue to improve, which will provide very good to excellent RH recovery overnight. Although another very warm day is expected Wednesday, the wind will remain rather light during the daylight hours and afternoon humidity will generally be in the 30-35 percent range.

On Thursday, an upper air disturbance will push a weak cold front through the southern Plains. Northerly surface winds behind the front will be a little gusty during the morning, but should relax some during the afternoon. There may be a period of elevated fire weather conditions across mainly southwestern and western north Texas Thursday afternoon, where winds will remain gusty.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

There is good agreement with the deterministic models Friday into Saturday, but probabilistic guidance diverges Sunday into Monday with a passage of a cold front. The current timing of the front is late Saturday afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma with the front stalling across southern Oklahoma northern Texas on Sunday. The air mass associated with the front appears rather cold, but shallow, so there is certainly a chance the front will push farther south than current guidance. The mid-level flow is also expected to become more westerly late in the weekend with at least one disturbances moving across the southern Plains. This may result in rain and perhaps elevated storms, mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma. For now will go with a blend of guidance and hope much needed precipitation occurs with this frontal passage.

Friday and Saturday currently appear to be more problematic with respect with fire weather conditions. A southerly wind is expected to increase across the western half of Oklahoma Friday afternoon with very warm and dry conditions. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday, but humidity is expected to be higher with a modest southerly wind. Clouds and humidity will help alleviate fire concerns across at least the northern half of Oklahoma Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will continue through mid-morning with a strong low-level jet with southerly winds. South to southwest wind gusts will increase by mid to late morning. These wind gusts decrease by late afternoon into this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest toward the end of the TAF period across the northwest/west central Oklahoma.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 45 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 74 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 78 37 76 41 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 69 40 72 45 / 0 0 0 20 Durant OK 70 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083>090.