textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Frost possible Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

- Increasing concern for strong-severe storms on Friday and Saturday evening & night.

- Heat returns on Saturday and again toward the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Another day of cooler temperatures will have you making sure the calendar really does say "May". Generally filtered insolation, with a combination of both low and high clouds, along with modest cold air advection will mute peak temperature readings over the coming hours. Mid-50s across northwestern Oklahoma to near 70 degrees across western-north Texas are forecast.

Scattered light rain showers and/or drizzle will continue across the southeast and northwest corners of the forecast area today, though any rainfall accumulations will remain light (<0.1"). Activity across northwestern Oklahoma, near/beneath the cold upper low, may continue past sunset tonight before gradually diminishing during the initial hours of Thursday morning.

The most significant impact in the coming 48 hours looks to be the potential for mid-spring frost across portions of northwestern Oklahoma. The cadence of dissipating/clearing sky cover remains the biggest question mark on how low predawn temperatures fall Thursday morning, with NBM remaining on the low side of the most recent guidance suite. However, with light winds and a very shallow moist layer, near to below-freezing temperatures are likely at least on a localized basis across the aforementioned region. While certainly not a "slam dunk", have opted to post a Frost Advisory (3 AM to 9 AM) given the seasonally anomalous nature of this potential.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

We will begin to warm back towards more seasonable conditions to close out the work week. The regional synoptic pattern by this time becomes somewhat complex, with a high-amplitude ridge-trough pattern establishing over the CONUS, along with a closed upper low meandering across the northern Gulf of California.

After another cold and potentially frosty (northwest Oklahoma) start to the day, the arrival of a warmer downsloped airmass and mostly clear skies will foster areawide mid to upper-70s high temperatures by the late afternoon.

An embedded shortwave trough looks to glide across portions of the Central Plains into Friday. An associated trailing surface front is forecast to advance into northern and central Oklahoma towards the afternoon and evening. In addition to much warmer temperatures (low- 90s near and south of the front), the potential for scattered thunderstorms continues to increase for Friday evening, centered around the I-44 corridor. While rather meager moisture return will limit instability some, strong mid-tropospheric flow/shear will promote some potential for strong-severe thunderstorms during the evening. While it currently appears that most remain storm-free on Friday, those with outdoor plans will want to check back over coming updates.

Ungar

Previous Discussion

Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Ridging begins to amplify across the Intermountain West during the day on Saturday, kicking us into a transition period. With northwest flow, increasing heat/moisture, and yet another cold front approaching on Saturday night, more widespread rain/storm chances will be realized. Meanwhile, temperatures during the day Saturday will soar 10-20 degrees above usual.

Rain chances continue across the southern half of the area Sunday as postfrontal temperatures return closer to normal. From there, the signal continues to grow for ridging to approach our area with much, much hotter temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, the severe risk looks below normal in the coming week, but that doesn't mean the severe risk will be absolutely zero. Something similar could be said about the fire risk in northwest Oklahoma, where problematic conditions may occur one or more days in the coming week.

Meister

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Most of the MVFR conditions have lifted to VFR this evening, DUA ceilings should lift to VFR over the next few hours as well. Few to scattered low clouds around 5000 feet may persist across portions of Oklahoma overnight. Otherwise light north winds will begin to back to the south through the day tomorrow with mostly clear skies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 43 75 53 85 / 0 0 0 20 Hobart OK 42 78 52 90 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 46 76 53 87 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 34 78 50 86 / 30 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 39 74 52 85 / 0 0 0 40 Durant OK 49 73 53 81 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014-015.

TX...None.