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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Patchy to areas of fog/dense fog possible into the first half of Wednesday morning. Some areas could see freezing fog by mid- morning should temperatures there be at or below freezing.

- Elevated fire danger risk across parts of our area from Thursday into Saturday.

- Warming trend peaks on Saturday with above-average temperatures on every day through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

For Wednesday we have another potential for patchy to dense fog developing by mid-morning. South winds from yesterday had produced a stronger gulf moisture surge across much of the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma with upper 30s to lower 40s surface dewpoints. Moisture advection expected to start back up early this morning as a weak surface low settles in across our southern CWA. With only some thin Cirrus lingering overhead expecting stronger radiational cooling down to the increasing dewpoints for fog developing. Latest 00Z Grand Ensemble runs have the higher probabilities (50% or greater) for dense fog reducing visibilities at to below 1/4 mile across a wide area of southwest into west-central & portions of central Oklahoma. This also includes adjacent western north Texas including Wichita Falls proper and the Oklahoma City Metro. Since confidence is higher a Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect this morning through 10 AM for the eastern two-thirds of our CWA. Temperatures may drop just below freezing for a couple of hours in northcentral Oklahoma, as any denser fog developing there could transition to freezing fog perhaps between 6-8 AM. Also, the aforementioned surface low will be pushing a very weak cold front across our area during the latter half of the morning with some drier air behind it enhancing fog dissipation.

After visibilities improve not expecting the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma to see much sun with overcast to broken stratus overhead coming up from northern Texas. Will go slightly cooler than NBM in that area using the CONSMOS for the afternoon MaxT and warmer/closer to NBM across our western CWA which will likely see more sun/heating in the afternoon. Still seeing warmer and above normal temperatures this afternoon than yesterday.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Wednesday night our next large scale system/upper trough comes through with the upper low tracking across the U.S. Northern Plains through Upper Midwest Regions. Prior to this systems arrival will see a strong low-level jet over our area while warm advection may develop some light scattered rain across southeast Oklahoma. Latest CAMs guidance along with NBM is suggesting this and NAM isentropes showing strong moisture advection on the 290-300 K surfaces with the lower to mid levels near saturated as per forecast soundings. Obviously a very stable atmosphere so have 20% probability for light rain or drizzle across our far southeast CWA for Wednesday evening. This system will push a fairly robust dry cold front across our area early Thursday morning with gusty north winds. Did go slightly windier post-frontal from NBM default using the NBM 90th percentile winds nudged 50%. Although windy and drier air on Thursday behind the front not much cooling with this milder Pacific-based air mass although perhaps cooler across our western CWA than the previous day. However will be much colder Thursday night/Friday morning with strong radiational cooling as the surface high settles in under clear night skies. Temperatures across most of our area on Thursday night will drop to or just below freezing although wind chill values should be negligible. The post-frontal drier air on Thursday will result in very low RH values across our west during the afternoon, and combined with gusty north winds will Elevate the fire danger risk across all of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas during the afternoon hours. Gusty south winds make a return on Friday with the driest air along and south of I-40 where the Elevated fire danger will be in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Our upper flow near zonal this weekend through Monday with mild California Pacific-based air overhead. Our warming trend expected to peak on Saturday with near record breaking afternoon temperatures about 20-25 degrees warmer than normal for mid to late December. Unseasonably warm and gusty south winds will increase the fire danger risk Saturday afternoon across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where the driest air will be in place. A weather system training along the Canadian/U.S. border will push a cold front through our area late Saturday into Sunday. A bit more robust cooling behind this front for Sunday into Monday yet temperatures will remain above normal. Upper ridging starts building in Tuesday restarting a strong warming trend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Widespread dense fog is expected to develop early Wednesday morning and continue through late morning or mid-day. Patchy freezing fog is possible near KPNC for a few hours, also. Improving visibilities along with MVFR ceilings are anticipated by early afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 57 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 43 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 47 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 38 56 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 44 57 27 57 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 54 64 33 60 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ006>008- 011>013-017>020-022>031-035>042-044>047.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ085-086- 088>090.