textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across northern Oklahoma with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards.

- The weekend into early next week will continue to feature an active pattern of showers and storms, some strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return early next week, especially across portions of western Oklahoma, especially if rainfall remains limited in that area.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Rain and storms chances will remain low (<30%) heading into Friday night, but there is a potential afternoon storms near New Mexico and Texas state line may push eastward with a return of southwesterly flow aloft. However, the greatest likelihood would be that storms are decaying by the time they reach the 100th meridian with a lack of instability.

The next upper wave will be approaching the Pacific Coast of Cali Saturday with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Warm isentropic scattered showers and storms may develop Saturday morning as surface winds veer to the south with increasing low-level moisture. A few storms may become strong, but overall the severe threat will be low initially. As the southwesterly flow increases (25-30 knots) through the afternoon, dynamic cooling and increased mid-level moisture will give way to increased shower and storm chances. A diffuse dryline will setup across West Texas Saturday afternoon with storm development likely along and east of the boundary. Despite increasing flow aloft, shear will still be weak to modest (~30 knots) and MLCAPE about 1000-1500 J/kg which will support storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. PWATs will begin to increase to near 1.25-1.5 inches Saturday night and heavy rainfall with flooding would become a primary concern as additional showers and storms develop into Sunday morning, especially across western north Texas and into southwest Oklahoma where earlier precipitation throughout the day has occurred.

The shortwave aloft will finally enter Cali Sunday with continued southwesterly flow pumping sub-tropical moisture into the Southern Plains. Showers and storms may continue to push eastward through Sunday morning across portions of central into eastern Oklahoma. A few storms may become strong with locally heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain cooler the aforementioned areas due to lingering cloud cover and shower activity through half the day. However, clearing to the west may allow for temperatures to peak in the mid 80s. Subsequently, a dryline will sharpen near the 100th meridian and become the focal point for storm development Sunday afternoon. All hazards are in play for Sunday afternoon with exact locations for storm development contingent on the leftover environment from the overnight and morning activity across a portions of the area.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The upper shortwave will swing across the Great Basin region of the U.S. on Monday and continue to slide eastward towards the Plains by Tuesday. Patterns aloft begin to diverge in solutions by midweek next week and the exact timing of the passing shortwave(s) will determine the best days for additional severe weather potential. As of now, Monday and Tuesday still appear to be potential severe weather days with a dryline setup. Wednesday's potential for severe weather could be shifted eastward if the shortwave passes through by then. Details on the exact timing and potential for hazardous weather heading into next week will continue to be refined as the upper wave approaches the western coast this weekend. Fire weather may also make a return early next week, west of the dryline. So not only will the dryline positioning be key for storms, but also for potential fire weather concerns, especially if areas across western OKlahoma do not receive sufficient rainfall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Could see some showers overnight into Friday morning across northern OK with a break midday with additional activity impacting the north Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, some high clouds through much of the night before stratus overspreads the area toward sunrise. These ceilings will gradually rise through the morning into the afternoon with most sites VFR by that time. Gusty south winds will continue across the west overnight and once again develop across most of the area Friday. Have maintained LLWS at both PNC and SWO overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 61 79 62 / 30 20 40 80 Hobart OK 83 59 78 59 / 20 20 70 90 Wichita Falls TX 82 62 80 63 / 20 20 50 90 Gage OK 79 56 77 57 / 60 40 80 70 Ponca City OK 77 58 79 61 / 60 40 50 70 Durant OK 81 62 81 64 / 20 10 20 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.