textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected for middle to late week across the area.

- Fire weather conditions return Thursday with a Near Critical to Critical risk across western and parts of northern Oklahoma

- Next best chance for showers and storms arrives late Sunday into Monday although a severe risk as early as Saturday should storms develop

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to push off to the east while an elongated area of low pressure extending from the Upper Midwest through Great Plains Region will tightening the pressure gradient across our area bringing a change of breezy warmer south- southwesterly winds for today. Late morning mixing will be sufficient for gusts up to 25 mph for today. Pressure heights will be rising as upper ridging across the western U.S. continues building in. This will strengthen our warming trend enhanced by maximum solar heating with temperatures today rising well above climatically normal for Mid-May. Afternoon high temperatures across much of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas will soar into the lower to mid 90s while the remainder of our area will see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A surface low tracking across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region will be pushing a weak dry cold front from across the Central Plains into northern and much of western Oklahoma before stalling and/or washing out. Expecting the cooler air to lag across the Central Plains/Kansas but will keep tonight chilly with lows in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

On Wednesday a surface high over Kansas will track off the MO-ARK Region with northeast to east winds across most of our area with warm mid to upper 80s temperatures in the afternoon. However, the boundary layer across our southwestern CWA will be dominated by a surface low east of the New Mexico Rockies just below an upper high producing a strong gradient of hotter gusty southeast winds as that part of our area will heat well into the lower to mid 90s. Although should stay well capped for any surface-based convection, both GFS & NAM deterministic models are suggesting a potential mid-level short- wave propagating east of the upper ridge axis over our southwest CWA on Wednesday afternoon. MUCAPE during peak afternoon heating suggests weak but sufficient high-based instability for a storm to develop should this disturbance comes through. For now will go higher than NBM by adding 10% POPs across southwest Oklahoma and western for late Wednesday afternoon for the potential of a non- severe elevated thunderstorm.

By Thursday the upper ridge axis will have shifted over the Central & Southern Plains lifting a warm front across our area as it could be quite windy with south winds in the 20-25 mph range and could be gusting 35-40+ mph as mixing to the 850 mb level flow will be likely. As a result Thursday will see more widespread heat, windy conditions, and a return of fire weather. Expecting temperatures in the 90s in most areas west of I-35 on Wednesday afternoon and can't rule out a Wind Advisory. Although surface gulf moisture may be initially slow to return it may sufficient to sharpen a weak but broad dryline across our western CWA on Thursday with the stronger dryline sharpening over the western TX & OK Panhandles. The drier air may lower afternoon RH values behind the broad dryline enough along with hot 90s temperatures and winds for fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon through sundown. As far as edits, the NBM winds were representative for Thursday but did go higher than default with the afternoon gusts using the 90th percentile winds.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Breezy but less gusty on Friday should the strong morning low-level jet weaken. Our heating trend peaks on Friday with more widespread 90s to parts of southwest Oklahoma and western Oklahoma reaching triple digits up to 103 degrees. Our upper ridge starts to break down this weekend as a trough starts deepening over the western U.S. Surface-based moisture transport strengthening this weekend with widespread 60s dewpoints and feeling much muggier with the heat. The sharpened dryline out in the Panhandles will start making advances toward our area along with a series of shortwaves propagating downstream from the trough with increasing instability and deep- layer shear sufficient for severe convection. NBM POPs have lowered to teens for Saturdays severe risk as POPs have increased to 20-30% for late Sunday into Monday when a surface low across the Upper Midwest Region may push a cold front through our area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

South to southwest winds will increase this morning with gusts of 20-25kts at most sites, exception being DUA where winds will remain light. South winds drop off late today before a front moves into northwest Oklahoma around 00Z and then drifts south overnight. Expect an increase in mid clouds overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 87 60 93 65 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 93 58 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 86 60 82 59 / 0 10 0 10 Durant OK 81 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.