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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1013 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend into next week with occasional elevated fire weather conditions.

- A stronger cold front may bring slightly below normal temperatures by early next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Light north winds this morning as the surface high digs into northern Oklahoma. This feature will continue to dig south into the Arklatex region by late tonight, which will bring more light and variable winds through the day across the forecast area. Temperatures will remain near average with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Overall, today's weather will be pleasant for January with ample sunshine and light winds.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Monday and Tuesday will feature the warmest days of the week with a return to above normal temperatures in the 60s with warm downsloping northwesterly flow aloft. An cut-off low that was situated over Baja Cali will eject eastward across Texas early this week and bring increased moisture to Texas. Thus, increasing cloud cover will occur to our south and may creep into western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Otherwise, warm and dry will remain the story heading into the work week. Some elevated fire weather concerns, mainly driven by RH will return to parts of western Oklahoma and into western north Texas where minimal rainfall has occurred and drought conditions persist. If winds overachieve, this could increase the risk for elevated fire weather.

An upper level trough will dig into the central CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a cold front and wind shift to the north Tuesday night across the area. The "cooler" air and breezier post- frontal winds associated with the front will be delayed to later Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Appreciable cold air advection will advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas on Wednesday as winds veer to the north and increase in speed. These northerly winds will likely become quite gusty with 30 to 40 knot 850 mb winds. With strengthening cold air advection, a non-diurnal temperature trend is possible in the afternoon with steady and/or falling temperatures across parts of the area.

By Thursday, winds are expected to quickly return to the south as the attendant surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. With west to southwest flow just above the surface, a downslope-warmed air mass will be move into western Oklahoma and north Texas by the afternoon. As a result, temperatures across the western half of the area will be higher on Thursday than on Wednesday. Across the east, high temperatures on Thursday will be close to Wednesday's highs.

By Friday into Saturday, persistent shortwave troughs embedded in the large-scale trough will allow additional cold fronts to move through. Currently, the coldest day looks to be Saturday with the highest probability of slightly below normal temperatures (highs generally in the low 40s to near 50 deg F). With Oklahoma and north Texas being on the western edge of the large-scale trough, any cold air intrusions look to be brief as downslope-warming off the higher terrain will quickly erode any cold air as surface highs shift to the east. Precipitation chances remain low/near zero.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

Winds will veer to the southwest by tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be between 5-10 kt at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 33 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 31 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 28 64 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 30 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 32 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.