textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk on Thursday evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

- Hot & muggy conditions continue on Thursday and again by Saturday, with heat indices near and above 100-105 degrees in the afternoon and evening. - Active pattern continues into the weekend, with additional chances for rain and storms. Locally heavy rain/flooding possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Despite introducing a frontal passage to the forecast today, hot and humid conditions and chances for storms will persist. Broad upper troughing remains positioned across the western two-thirds of the CONUS, with early morning water vapor showing a maturing upper system moving quickly eastward across the Northern Plains.

While the most significant impacts from this system will remain displaced to the north, a trailing surface boundary is forecast to move slowly from northwest-to-southeast through the day, approaching the I-44 corridor by this evening. A prominent thermal ridge and pre-frontal "torching" will combine with high surface dewpoints to yield another afternoon with heat indices >105F. The epicenter of heat risk will shift south-east (into more of central/southwestern Oklahoma) compared to prior days. A Heat Advisory has been initiated, centered along the I-44 corridor, from 1 PM to 6 PM today.

The arriving front will also introduce a greater overall chance for showers and storms this afternoon, evening and night. This includes a risk for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with potential for damaging downburst wind gusts and perhaps intermittent large hailstones with any more dominant/sustaining updraft.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

An occasionally stormy period will continue into Friday morning, as modest ascent continues atop the sagging frontal zone. While severe weather chances are currently forecast to diminish dramatically after 10-11 PM on Thursday, the risk for locally heavy rainfall and flooding looks to increase by this time, particularly across southeast Oklahoma.

A modified airmass and lingering clouds/light precipitation will make for a notably "cooler" day (heat indices in the low-90s) north of the Red River on Friday. Depending on the ultimate position of the front/moisture axis, >100F heat indices remain possible for portions of far southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas. The forecast remains generally drier for Friday afternoon and evening, though will monitor low-amplitude upper waves moving eastward across the southern High Plains for low rain/storm chances late.

A predominately dry period will be rather short-lived, as another active period of rain/storm chances looks to return by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday, coincident with the passage of a stronger surface front. Some risk for strong-severe storms and locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding appear evident across the region. Another hot and humid afternoon is expected prior to storms on Saturday, especially across northern Oklahoma just ahead of the front.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Rain and storm potential will linger into Sunday, especially across the southern one-half of Oklahoma and north Texas. Coverage/chance looks to slowly end from south-to-north by Monday. The stronger front/more modified post-frontal airmass will also yield much cooler conditions by Sunday into next week, with low to mid-80s highs and lower humidity.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Area of MVFR ceilings have spread into southeastern Oklahoma including KDUA. These will persist through much of the morning before lifting late in the morning.

A cold front will move across the area through the forecast period with gusty south winds shifting to northeasterly with the frontal passage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late afternoon and become more widespread overnight, although northern Oklahoma site will likely miss out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 96 69 86 74 / 60 70 40 10 Hobart OK 98 69 90 74 / 30 50 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 98 72 91 75 / 0 70 60 0 Gage OK 90 65 89 72 / 0 20 30 30 Ponca City OK 95 66 86 73 / 20 10 30 30 Durant OK 92 76 89 78 / 0 80 50 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018>020-022>031-033>040-044.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>088.