textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Cooler and sunny today; low chance for a freeze in northern Oklahoma Saturday morning.

- Widespread rain event expected from Saturday to Sunday, with most areas seeing at least 1/4 inch of rain and a maximum swath of around 1 inch of rain expected.

- Chilly on Sunday; slow warm-up thereafter.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Near-term forecast impacts: Cooler this morning, but another beautiful day otherwise.

Regional surface observations tonight show a much cooler airmass located across the mid-Mississippi Valley beneath a strong belt of northerly 500 mb flow. Pressure rises in the vicinity of Lake Winnipeg are driving that airmass southward through Iowa and Missouri, and northeast surface winds here will bring the airmass in the form of a backdoor cold front. It's worth noting that the trend in short-range guidance has been for the airmass to not be quite as cold as previously anticipated; still, the difference will be noticeable compared to the recent warm weather.

The impact of this will be to create a gradient in temperatures from southwest to northeast once the sun comes up. In north central Oklahoma, continued cold advection (even with winds remaining pretty light) will keep highs in the low-to-mid 50s. In western north Texas, surface winds will be closer to due easterly, and highs should get well into the 60s. Mostly sunny skies continue through the morning, with high clouds arriving late.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Drier forecast and a gradual warm-up throughout the week.

The trough zips out of the forecast area on Monday and is replaced by amplified shortwave ridging. Cloud cover will likely linger during much of the day on Monday and keep temperatures below normal. By Tuesday, the next large-scale trough across the West will begin influencing the surface pattern on the Plains by inducing lee troughing in the Dakotas/Wyoming/Montana. This will gradually cause winds to shift to southerly across the forecast area. However, the warmup that follows will likely be less-dramatic than we have seen again and again in 2026 because surface winds may not contain much of a westerly component, and because there will actually be cool air circulating even in the warm advection regime. Therefore, even by Wednesday highs will only be reaching around 60 in our area.

The warm advection regime becomes a little more pronounced by Thursday and into the end of the week, sending temperatures back above normal. Low-end precipitation chances creep back into the forecast on Thursday as well, but ensemble data have been pinpointing next weekend (in the Day 8 - Day 10 timeframe) as one of greater probability for impactful precipitation.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Drier forecast and a gradual warm-up throughout the week.

The trough zips out of the forecast area on Monday and is replaced by amplified shortwave ridging. Cloud cover will likely linger during much of the day on Monday and keep temperatures below normal. By Tuesday, the next large-scale trough across the West will begin influencing the surface pattern on the Plains by inducing lee troughing in the Dakotas/Wyoming/Montana. This will gradually cause winds to shift to southerly across the forecast area. However, the warmup that follows will likely be less-dramatic than we have seen again and again in 2026 because surface winds may not contain much of a westerly component, and because there will actually be cool air circulating even in the warm advection regime. Therefore, even by Wednesday highs will only be reaching around 60 in our area.

The warm advection regime becomes a little more pronounced by Thursday and into the end of the week, sending temperatures back above normal. Low-end precipitation chances creep back into the forecast on Thursday as well, but ensemble data have been pinpointing next weekend (in the Day 8 - Day 10 timeframe) as one of greater probability for impactful precipitation.

Meister

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR category will continue at all terminals through the period. Surface winds will slowly back (to more east-southeasterly) into early Saturday morning along with increasing high cloud coverage.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 57 37 57 38 / 0 0 20 100 Hobart OK 59 40 55 41 / 0 0 60 100 Wichita Falls TX 63 43 60 44 / 0 0 50 100 Gage OK 58 32 53 34 / 0 0 80 100 Ponca City OK 55 32 55 36 / 0 0 0 70 Durant OK 64 39 61 40 / 0 0 0 90

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.