textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 556 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Hot again in southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon.

- Marginal risk for strong to severe storms this evening through Friday morning.

- Heavy rain Thursday night could lead to localized flooding.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Weather impacts today will be driven by a cold front gliding southward through the area, yielding impactful heat across southern Oklahoma and north Texas and thunderstorm chances / cooler temperatures spreading from north to south with the front.

Heat: While northern Oklahoma will get relief from yesterday's heat (highs in the 80s), southern Oklahoma and north Texas will see a thermal ridge develop ahead of the front this afternoon. Timing of the front will determine the northward extent of heat impacts--our heat advisory has been updated to accord with the latest HREF guidance. The highest heat indices will be in western north Texas.

Storms: The setup today and tonight is somewhat messy. Early in the day there is a weak signal for isentropic showers along and north of the front. The signal in the CAMs is fairly weak, but the environment could support some elevated strong storms.

Toward late afternoon / early evening diurnal heating will lend its support to storm initiation. This could result in surface based storms (including severe risk) in southern Oklahoma and north Texas along the front. CAMs particularly seem to favor western north Texas for storm initiation where afternoon heating will be the strongest.

Moving into the night, additional storms are likely behind the front as a modest low level jet increases. Elevated instability is forecast to remain sufficient to sustain a severe risk through the night. Single / multi-cell clusters will yield primarily a hail threat, potentially evolving into a wind threat as storms evolve into an MCS.

Additionally, heavy rainfall will yield a flooding threat overnight generally near and south of I-40. HREF shows up to a 50% probability of 3 inches in 3 hours over parts of south central / central Oklahoma.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and storms are likely to linger into Friday morning across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Highs on Friday afternoon should even out in the 80s.

Northwest to zonal flow aloft will keep us in a somewhat active pattern into the weekend, though model agreement for rain chances is low.

Day

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Active pattern continues into early next week. Sunday looks to bring a return of impactful heat under mostly sunny skies. This will be ahead of a front moving in Sunday night, which will bring with it significant rain chances. Outside of Sunday, temperatures should hover near normal.

Day

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Expect to continue to see an expansion of MVFR ceilings this morning, which will likely continue through the morning hours before ceiling lift to VFR across much of the area. Also expected some showers and thunderstorms across the north and portions of the west this morning with perhaps a lull this afternoon before showers and thunderstorms become more widespread overnight into Friday morning. South winds will shift to the east and northeast as a front works through the area today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 67 85 70 / 30 70 50 40 Hobart OK 85 65 87 69 / 30 90 40 40 Wichita Falls TX 98 69 88 71 / 20 80 50 40 Gage OK 75 62 86 67 / 40 40 30 40 Ponca City OK 73 65 84 69 / 70 40 30 40 Durant OK 94 75 87 74 / 0 70 70 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ037-039-044>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ084>090.