textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 426 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot and dry conditions persist.

- Fire weather will continue to be a concern with the ongoing drought and dry fuels.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The ~595 dam subtropical ridge that was centered across the Southern Plains yesterday will begin to drift eastward toward the Midwest today. Even with the slight eastward shift, the ridge will remain the primary influence on our weather with a strong low- level thermal ridge across its western flank. As a result, no significant change in temperatures are expected today with high temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F. Dewpoints will remain low enough where there should not be an appreciable difference between the air temperature and the heat index. As a matter of fact, some locations may have heat indices lower than the air temperature.

The surface pressure gradient will relax today, which will result in weaker winds than previous days. Therefore, the area for elevated fire weather conditions will be more limited across northwest Oklahoma and portions of west central and north central. These areas will have the combination of the hottest temperatures (~100 to 106 deg F), lowest relative humidity (~18 to 25%), and relatively strongest winds (south to south-southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph). Given the ongoing drought and very dry fuels (i.e., Energy Release Component [ERC] percentiles >90th percentile), the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack to low-end large wildfires. A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) was issued for this afternoon into the early evening for this region. Elsewhere, even though the weather conditions will not be elevated, the fuels by themselves remain susceptible to wildfires given the ERC is >90th percentile across the entire area.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge across its western flank. The most impactful change during this time is low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase with south to south-southeast winds. Heat index values are forecast to gradually rise with Heat Advisories potentially needed--especially by Wednesday. The increasing low-level moisture should temper the fire weather risk. However, as noted above, the very dry fuels by themselves remain susceptible to wildfires given the ongoing drought and the lack of rainfall.

One feature that will need to be monitored is a tropical disturbance (INVEST AL97) that will impact the Texas and/or Louisiana coastline. The disturbance has a 70% chance of development in the next 48 hours into a tropical depression or tropical storm. There is good agreement among global dynamic, AI, and ensemble members that remnants of the tropical system will move to the northwest and then curve to the north across Texas around the periphery of the subtropical ridge (the primary steering current for the tropical disturbance). From there, it remains to be seen how far north the remnants will survive before dissipation. However, it is not impossible that the remnants could give a chance of showers/storms (or at least increased cloud cover) across parts of the area sometime during the Wednesday through Friday period as a few ensemble members do keep a coherent vorticity maxima into Oklahoma or western north Texas.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

As noted in the short term section above, the remnants of the tropical disturbance will be feature that could bring a chance of showers/storms across parts of the area with some deterministic models and ensemble members keeping a remnant vorticity maxima/weakness in the area through Friday. However, it is important to note that other ensemble members completely dissipate the system before it reaches Oklahoma or western north Texas.

Otherwise, hot weather will likely continue into next weekend with deterministic and ensemble NWP in agreement the subtropical ridge will continue to influence our weather. As a matter of fact, there are indications the subtropical ridge may further amplify/strengthen across the Plains by the upcoming weekend.

The probabilistic National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast does not have any significant spread among the 10th and 90th percentile temperature forecast with even the 10th percentile several degrees above-normal through the Labor Day weekend. As a result, there is a high confidence of generally above-normal temperatures outside of any potential tropical influence. Note that given the lower sun angle and shorter days, our normal temperatures have been quickly decreasing over the last couple weeks. For example, Oklahoma City is down to 89 deg F and Wichita Falls is down to 93 deg F today. Therefore, even a slight cool down would still result in above-normal temperatures.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR with mid/high clouds. S to SW winds today backing to the S and SE this evening. Wind speeds not quite as strong as the last few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 101 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 102 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 102 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 101 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 103 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.