textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Drier air will again overspread parts of western and northern Oklahoma today, as a dryline mixes eastward. Naturally, models differ with the position of this feature. We will convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for six counties across northwestern Oklahoma. This area will likely see humidity fall to around 20 percent by mid afternoon with strong wind gusts to 40 mph. There's also the potential for a few high-based showers across this area during the afternoon. Lightning is unlikely, but they could enhance wind gusts.

Unlikely yesterday, there will be better upper-level support in the form a lead shortwave trough. This will bring better chances of thunderstorm development along and near a dryline by mid to late afternoon. There will likely be more mid to high clouds that arrive during the day which will limit insolation. Despite this, models suggest near surface instability of at least 2500 J/kg east of the dryline. Instability and deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient for supercell storms with a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms that develop will move rather quickly to the northeast (30-40 mph)

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to continue into at least the early to mid evening hours with a continued risk of severe weather, especially with any supercells. There should be a lull in thunderstorm develop from the late evening into parts of the overnight hours. However, the main upper trough will be approaching far West Texas Wednesday morning. Model guidance indicates showers and storms may develop by sunrise across portions of southern within an area of mid-level convergence. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible.

Thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday should be earlier based on the position and movement of the upper trough. A more eastern position of a dryline, should limit severe chance across western Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. However, central and eastern parts of Oklahoma may be impacted by another round of severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Most of the thunderstorms that form Wednesday afternoon should end by mid to late evening.

Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night.

The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR ceilings are filling in across southeast Oklahoma including sites like DUA and OUN. There is a chance these low ceilings continue to spread northeastward into OKC, SPS, LAW this morning. Therefore MVFR ceilings were introduced at previously mentioned sites. The low clouds will lift later this morning and sites will return to VFR. Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. PROB30 was used at most sites given the uncertainty on exact location of storm development this afternoon. WWR has the lowest chances for any storms as it will likely remain west of the dryline, but CSM may also stay just west of the dryline.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 84 66 79 59 / 60 60 70 30 Hobart OK 88 63 85 53 / 50 60 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 85 67 83 59 / 60 70 60 20 Gage OK 89 56 83 48 / 20 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 87 66 80 56 / 50 50 70 40 Durant OK 82 67 78 64 / 30 50 80 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.

TX...None.