textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Multi-hazard risk potential on Thursday; Severe weather possible east of a dryline and along a front, fire weather concern across portions of western Oklahoma.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues on Friday into the weekend; Multiple opportunities for strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Multi-hazard risk potential continues with fire and severe weather concerns.

THE SET-UP: Models show a mid-level disturbance moving eastward from the Four Corners into KS and possibly the Panhandles area this afternoon/evening. At the sfc, a cold front is expected to stretch across portions of southern KS near the OK/KS state line late this afternoon while a sharpening dryline will extend southward from the front across parts of western OK and western north TX. The front is then expected to move south across portions of the area later this evening into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER: Drier air will continue to move into portions of the fa west of the dryline this afternoon. The dry air along with breezy/gusty southwest winds, hot temperatures, and slow to green up vegetation will combine to lead to elevated to near critical/locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/early evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM across parts of western OK, primarily where the vegetation has been the slowest to greenup and least amount of rain has occurred. Conditions are expected to improve this evening. However, the frontal boundary is expected to move southward causing a wind shift to the N and NE which could cause a problem with any ongoing fires.

SEVERE WEATHER: There are two different ways that the fa could potentially get storms which is either development near the dryline and/or development near the front.

DRYLINE SCENARIO: There is still uncertainty on whether any storm development will occur near the dryline this afternoon/evening. The biggest uncertainty is whether the cap will be able to be broken. The morning OUN sounding showed a strong cap in place over the area. The question is how much will this cap weaken today and/or enough lift can develop. Currently, there is a plan to do a 20Z special sounding so we should hopefully have a better idea of the strength of the cap when that data is in.

Some of the models/CAMs show the cap holding but a few do show one or two storms developing late this afternoon. For this to occur, the clouds will need to continue to decrease/clear out providing strong sfc heating. The heating along with convergence along the dryline may provide enough lift to overcome the cap. If a storm does develop, the moist, unstable airmass east of the dryline will make severe storms likely with initially very large hail being the main concern although if a storm can sustain itself into this evening then the tornado threat will increase due to a strengthening low level jet.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SCENARIO: The better chance for storms and severe storms for the fa will be near the frontal/outflow boundary late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Storms are expected to develop near the cold front later this afternoon in KS possibly all the way to the triple point near the KS/OK border. Storm development is expected to continue this evening/overnight as the outflow/effective cold front moves south across the region. The better chance for storm development/severe storms will gradually shift east of the area as the boundary moves southward but some storms could affect at least eastern portions of the fa, generally near/east of I-35 into early Friday. With the moist, unstable airmass in place south of the front, some of the storms could become strong to severe this evening/overnight. Initially all hazards will be possible but the main concern is expected to transition to a damaging wind threat as more storms develop and form into line(s) of storms.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend.

FRIDAY: Severe storms will be possible across portions of the fa but there is some uncertainty as to where.

Showers/storms could be ongoing across portions of the fa Friday morning as the boundary continues to move south. A few of these storms may be strong with gusty winds. Models show the boundary eventually stalling across portions of the area Friday afternoon. The question is where. Currently, it looks from as far north as I-40 corridor area but more likely further south. New storm development will be possible near this effective front and any other lingering outflow or differential heating boundaries. A moist, unstable airmass and modest shear will make severe storms possible late Friday afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns.

SATURDAY: Severe storms will be possible again Saturday but will be at least somewhat dependent on what occurs Friday and Friday night.

The previously mentioned frontal boundary that is expected to stall somewhere over the fa Friday is forecast to lift northward as a warm front Saturday with a dryline into or just west of the fa Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the warm front but there is some uncertainty of the frontal position by Saturday afternoon. Storm development will also be possible near the dryline. A moist, unstable airmass will continue south of the warm front and east of the dryline. Strong to severe storms will be possible capable of all hazards.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Sunday continues to look like a repeat of the prior Thursday's forecast, with potential for significant severe and fire weather, though with significant uncertainties/caveats. A strong upper trough looks to quickly move out from the Desert Southwest into the Plains during the day, with a dryline taking shape across the central flank of the forecast area. While these broad scale factors are coming into focus, mesoscale details remain highly uncertain and likely will have feedback from prior days activity. Robust heating and moistening of the boundary layer, along with at least modest synoptic-scale lift, appear to be necessary conditions for thunderstorm development east of the dryline during the evening due to the presence of another strong EML. Should these conditions be met, then intense thunderstorms with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes would materialize. For now, this concern is highest along and east of the U.S. Highway 81 corridor.

Across western Oklahoma (behind the dryline), a punch of hot, dry and windy weather will offer another period of at least near- critical fire weather concern. Depending on the nature of precipitation leading into Sunday, additional fire weather headlines will be possible where fuels remain concerningly dry.

"Tamer" (dry and mild) weather is expected to finally return on Monday behind a departing Pacific Front. Continued southwest flow and occasional passages of upper systems will foster renewed chances for rain and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Ungar

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Our terminals generally east of the I-35 corridor could remain in a MVFR category at least through 20Z until the current stratus scatters and/or move out. Otherwise all remaining terminals are likely to remain in a VFR category at least through 04Z after which most of them could return to a MVFR category through the forecast period. Only terminals KCSM & KWWR should remain in a VFR category throughout the entire forecast period. Surface winds will remain out of the south at 15-20 gusting 25-30 kts although surface winds will likely decouple across our terminals generally west of the I-35 corridor resulting in wind gusts decreasing. A dryline punching across western Oklahoma will keep surface winds more southwest to westerly across terminals KCSM & KWWR. A cold front will be pushing through late shifting surface winds out of the north-northeast between 01-09Z although may not reach terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma until just after the end of this forecast period. Prior to the cold front passage a strong low- level jet will be increasing out of the south which could result in low-level wind shear by 04Z affecting only two of our terminals in central Oklahoma (KOKC & KOUN) and KDUA in southeast Oklahoma. A far as any storm activity, there is a very low (20%) probability for late afternoon convection to develop along the dryline but will be high enough for a PROB30 in place for terminal KLAW between 01-04Z. Thunderstorm chances increase along the cold front passage with TEMPOS for TSRA across central through northcentral Oklahoma generally between 00-09Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 60 81 58 84 / 40 10 0 20 Hobart OK 54 85 57 89 / 10 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 61 89 62 93 / 10 10 0 10 Gage OK 48 82 52 84 / 0 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 54 77 55 80 / 70 10 0 40 Durant OK 68 86 63 86 / 30 20 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021-033.

TX...None.