textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma into western north Texas on Thursday afternoon with a low chance for dry lightning thunderstorms.

- There is an increasing chance for showers/storms this weekend and especially early next week, including the potential for severe weather.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Another warm day today with temperatures rising into the 80s and 90s (warmest temps over southwest OK / western north TX). We'll see a slight breeze in our western and northern counties and mostly sunny skies across the region. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. There is an outside chance of a decaying thunderstorm crossing from the Texas panhandle into far western Oklahoma this evening.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday and Friday will see a combination of fire weather (especially windy on Thursday), marginal severe risks, and hot conditions.

Fire Weather: On Thursday, a low level thermal ridge extending northeastward through the panhandles, a dryline pushing east to highway 81, and a moderately strong low level jet mixing gusty winds down to the surface (extending from eastern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma) will combine to produce up to critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma. Minimum RH values are expected to be in the mid to upper teens (with more extreme models bringing RH values down to 10 percent across our far western counties) with south southwest winds at 20 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Cirrus may play a mitigating role against the effects of deep mixing.

Greenup will help mitigate fire risk farther east, but far western and northwestern Oklahoma continue to have dry, volatile fuels with ERCs in the 80th to 90th percentile.

On Friday, the low level jet shifts southeast and a surface low develops over northwest Oklahoma. This will keep winds light in northwest OK, mitigating RFTIs despite similar RH values (mid to upper teens). Elevated to near critical fire weather will be confined to southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas where breezier winds will overlap with the lower RH values behind the dryline. Again, the most volatile fuels will be confined to our far western counties.

Wind: Wind may pose a hazard in and of itself as gusts approach 35- 40 mph, particularly over the Wichita mountains in southwest Oklahoma. For now, these higher gusts appear to be localized so will hold off on a wind advisory. Nevertheless, it will be quite windy across the state.

Severe Weather: As a series of shortwaves passes over the region and with a dryline in place, we will have some low storm chances both Thursday and Friday, primarily during the evening / overnight time periods. These elevated storms come with a marginal risk for severe hazards (downburst winds and hail).

Heat: Warming trend continues Thursday and Friday, bringing us to near record highs on Friday. Most sites are forecast to come within 2 to 4 degrees of records.

Day

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Still have severe thunderstorm risks for this weekend as a sharp dryline makes advances to our western CWA both afternoon. Increasing low-level moisture transport ahead of the dryline will result in stronger destabilization in our area for potential severe storm activity. An upper trough over the Southwestern U.S. could expel a series of shortwaves downstream across the Southern Plains further enhancing storm activity. Probabilities for storms Saturday is still low although they increase up to 30% late Sunday with a strong warm advection pattern as the approaching trough deepens becoming more longwave pushing a strong cold front through our area around Monday night. As a result storm POPs will be increasing 50% late Monday into Tuesday as we'll be trending "wetter" early next week. Still hot especially across our western CWA with a cooldown early next week behind the cold front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Generally clear skies overnight will the rule, with only a few high clouds transversing the area. There area some cumulus cloud clusters forming across the south plains, but well west of our terminal sites. Winds will increase during the late part of the forecast period, with southwest winds expecting to gust over 25 knots for Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 63 88 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 65 96 70 101 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 65 95 70 99 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 63 96 64 97 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 59 88 69 92 / 10 0 10 10 Durant OK 64 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-015-021-033-034-036.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083.