textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Chances for showers and storms focused across western OK and western north TX today into Friday, expanding east into the weekend.

- More chances for rain next Tuesday/Wednesday with a cold front.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week, but not as hot as recent weeks.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers/storms are already developing in the eastern TX panhandle into parts of western OK and western north TX. Showers/storms will remain possible through this afternoon into tonight, with the highest chances continuing across parts of western OK. SW flow aloft continues over the Panhandles into eastern NM today. Meanwhile, a plume of better moisture (dewpoints of mid 60s to low 70) is seen in western portions of the fa. This area of better moisture is currently receiving sfc heating and is closer to the SW flow aloft. With the heating, shower/storm development is expected in western portions of the fa this afternoon and continue into tonight as moisture advection continues across portions of the fa. Enough instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to develop and although the wind shear is fairly week, some strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern with any severe storms.

Models show precipitable water (PWAT) increasing today with values of 1.75"-2.00" possible. With the increasing PWATs, locally heavy rain which may cause flooding in a few locations will become an increasing concern into tonight.

As for temperatures, above average highs (mid 80s to mid 90s) are expected again this afternoon. However, these temperatures continue to be cooler than what this area had experienced over a recent number of weeks. Tonight will also be mild/warm across the fa with lows in the mid 60s to around 70 which are still above normal for this time of year as well.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Models show the upper high that is currently centered across eastern TX/western LA Gulf coasts will break down over the next couple of days as upper trough continues to move over portions of the western U.S. This will shift the SW flow further east into the region on Friday. Models then show a shortwave moving across the central Plains as the upper high continues to flatten causing the flow to become more westerly over the area. What all this means is that the chances for showers/storms will spread further east than they have been the last few days. Once again enough instability (1500-2000 J/kg) is expected to develop over the next couple of days to continue the potential for some strong to severe storms in the afternoon/evening.

Locally heavy rain will continue to be a concern with the precipitable water (1.75"-2.00") forecast to still be fairly high. The heavy rain could lead to flooding in a few locations, especially if it is over a location that receives heavy rain in earlier rounds of precipitation.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal Friday and Saturday with highs in the 80s to mid 90s. The exception could be in NW OK Friday where temperatures could stay in the 70s due to the amount of clouds/rain. Overnight will continue to be in the mid 60s to around 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A drying trend is expected Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds over the area and the trough moves further to the east. No real airmass change is expected with highs continuing to be well above normal across the region into early next week. Another potentially stronger trough is forecast to take shape over the southwest US and head our direction by next Tuesday/Wednesday which will bring our next chance of rain to the area. How much rain we see and the exact timing of the trough remain uncertain at this time, with the potential injection of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific likely playing a key role in rainfall amounts. If everything comes together this system has the potential to be our best shot at widespread appreciable rainfall our area has seen in many weeks. That said, current NBM percentiles for OKC rain totals show wide variability, ranging from only 0.05" at the 25th percentile to over 2 inches at the 75th percentile. Needless to say, uncertainty is high. At least a brief cooldown is also in the cards in the wake of this system, with highs forecast to return to near average for this time of year by next Wednesday.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For most locations, VFR conditions are expected. Lower ceilings/visibilities will be possible at KCSM and KWWR this afternoon and through the overnight hours as showers and thunderstorms move across western and northwestern Oklahoma. Winds generally will remain out of the southeast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 89 71 90 / 10 20 30 50 Hobart OK 70 88 69 91 / 40 40 50 30 Wichita Falls TX 70 96 70 96 / 10 20 30 40 Gage OK 65 79 63 87 / 70 60 60 20 Ponca City OK 66 82 67 84 / 10 40 50 70 Durant OK 64 94 68 96 / 0 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.