textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Additional strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening across the western third of the area.

- Widespread beneficial rainfall expected beginning Tuesday through the end of next week.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week, before cooling down mid-week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A shortwave trough will continue to move through the southern Plains today. Daytime heating by the afternoon should give way to instability values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg at least across the western half of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon across portions of northern, central and western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support a few stronger storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Most of the activity that develops before sunset, should weaken into the night as daytime heating decreases.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning, most of the activity should shift to the east as the mid- level trough exits the area. Mid-level heights will increase Sunday, so afternoon highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than Saturday's temperatures. Despite the increasing mid-level heights, deep-layer moisture and daytime heating will help to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms across much of the area Sunday afternoon.

Aforementioned mid-level ridge will keep temperatures similar to Sunday's highs, and should keep most of the area dry. There is a low chance at thunderstorm development across far southeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Sub-tropical jet coming off the Pacific will bring increasing amounts of moisture, including the remnants of Hurricane Polo north and northeast ahead of strengthening western trough. This will allow precip chances to increase beginning Tuesday.

The 00Z GFS has come in more in line with the Euro in a much slower eastward progression of the upper low through the southwest into the southern Plains this week. After the initial increase in precip chances Tuesday, abundant deep layer moisture and the slow movement of the upper low will bring an extended chance of rain through the remainder of the week and perhaps into next weekend. I'm reluctant to say this, but this would bring in the possibility of an increased chance of flooding rainfall, believe it or not as we go through the week, with very little chance of severe storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Isolated storm activity will remain ongoing at least through 08Z although will lower to 30% probabilities between 04-08Z. Terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma may not be impacted until 04Z while terminals KWWR in northwest Oklahoma should see no impacts. Ceilings from the storm activity should stay high enough although rain could reduce visibilities to at least an MVFR category should storms move over the impacted terminals as well as localized gusty winds. By 08Z all terminals should stay in a VFR category through the end of the forecast period. Surface winds should stay out of the south with a surface trough across the Central Plains pushing into northwest Oklahoma producing a northerly wind shift at 5-10 kts by 15Z. There are several storm outflow boundaries across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas keeping surface winds variable in direction and gusty mainly at terminals KLAW and KSPS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 91 70 91 / 40 30 20 10 Hobart OK 69 93 68 92 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 98 71 97 / 60 20 10 10 Gage OK 63 88 63 86 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 65 85 66 84 / 70 10 10 10 Durant OK 70 97 70 95 / 10 30 40 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.