textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions expected into middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Temperatures remain rather mild across the area as we enter the first hour of 2026, generally in the 40s in most spots. Light and variable winds this morning will become southerly through the day as a surface low develops and deepens across the panhandles in response to a shortwave crossing the central Rockies. Easterly winds will hang on longer across northern OK before a surface trough/pseudo warm front lifts northward this afternoon. This will help keep temperatures a bit cooler up north, where high will be in the low to mid 50s, with mid to upper 60s expected in central/southern OK and western north TX.

Clouds will increase/thicken tonight as the surface low tracks eastward along the Red River and warm advection increases in advance of the system. Many short range models are now picking up on potential for light precipitation late tonight across central and north-central OK, but extensive amounts of dry air in low-levels will likely lead to mostly virga, although a few sprinkles or very light rain could reach the ground in some spots.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Low pressure and light rainfall will move eastward Friday morning, with northerly winds expected behind the system through the day. However, not much airmass change is expected, with highs Friday likely only a few degrees cooler than Thursday's. Temperatures may even be warmer across southwest OK and western north TX as winds take on a more downslope west/northwest component. Mild conditions are expected to continue Saturday as high pressure settles over the region, with the ridge axis expected to move east of the area late in the day.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Surface high will continue eastward on Sunday with south winds expected to return as it does so. This will help boost temperatures several degrees, though the bulk of model guidance has tempered the warmup Sunday compared to previous runs. Regardless, above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week as upper ridging builds over the central US. Models suggest the ridge may weaken by Thursday/Friday next week as a trough centered along the western US coast progresses eastward, but confidence in the evolution of this trough and whether it may bring some much needed rainfall to the region is low as solutions begin to diverge greatly by this time period regarding the strength/timing of the trough.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

High clouds will spread over the area today with increasing mid- level clouds tonight. Some precipitation is expected to develop across portions of central and eastern Oklahoma, but with dry low levels of the atmosphere, some of this rainfall will evaporate before reaching the ground as virga. The potential of precipitation reaching the ground is sufficient for PROB30 groups in the KOKC and KSWO TAFs, but most rain will be light.

An area of low pressure and a cold front will move into the area tonight with winds shifting to northerly with the frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 43 61 37 / 0 30 0 0 Hobart OK 63 37 65 35 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 42 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 62 33 61 32 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 59 40 58 32 / 0 20 10 0 Durant OK 66 48 68 42 / 0 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.