textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Cool, seasonable temperatures are expected today a with widespread freeze tonight.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures coupled with breezy and dry conditions will bring a return to fire weather conditions next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

A 1033 mb surface high is centered across the Southern Plains early this morning. With the surface high in close proximity, the surface pressure gradient has relaxed and winds have become light.

Light winds, clear skies, and a dry air mass has provided an excellent environment for radiational cooling this morning. With an environment favorable for radiational cooling, local terrain/ the planetary boundary layer is the primary impact on temperatures. For locations where winds have become light/nearly calm (e.g., low-lying sheltered areas), temperatures have quickly dropped due to less vertical mixing. Therefore, there are significant temperature changes in short distances this morning.

Light northerly winds and abundant sunshine today will result in no appreciable change in air mass with high temperatures similar to yesterday. Highs will generally range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s deg F, which is normal for mid to late February.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Another widespread freeze is expected tonight into Monday morning with light winds, clear skies, and a dry air mass.

Monday will be a transition day toward a warmer synoptic-scale pattern as the surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. and lee cyclogenesis occurs east of the Rockies. As a result, winds will shift toward the south and a low-level thermal ridge will strengthen to the west. The warmest weather will be in closer proximity to the low-level thermal ridge across western Oklahoma into western north Texas, where afternoon high temperatures will reach the 60s deg F. Elsewhere, 50s deg F are expected. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible near the 100th meridian across far western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas, where the strongest winds and warmest temperatures are forecast.

By Tuesday, warm, above-normal temperatures will return across the entire area with breezy southerly winds and the eastward expansion of the low-level thermal ridge through downslope warming. High temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 deg F (~15 deg above normal). A tightening surface pressure gradient in response to a deepening surface low in the High Plains will result in gusty south to southwest winds.

Even with the breezy southerly winds, moisture advection appears limited with afternoon relative humidity values between 15 to 30%. This dry return flow (DRF) pattern will set the stage for elevated to locally near-critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. With the ongoing drought conditions and receptive/dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to at least initial attack fires with some large fire potential.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

The warm, above-normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday as the downslope-warmed air mass remains in place across the Southern Plains. Probabilistic guidance (an ensemble of bias- corrected models) gives high confidence in this scenario given even the colder end of guidance (10th percentile) is ~15 deg F above the normal high temperatures for late February. High temperatures are generally expected to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s deg F, which is ~20 deg F above-normal.

Winds are expected to be lighter on Wednesday than on Tuesday given a weaker surface pressure gradient, which should temper the fire weather risk. However, relative humidity will still be low enough that locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible.

By Thursday, cooler weather is expected as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as a shortwave trough passes by the Great Lakes region. With most of the synopic-scale ascent passing to the northeast and limited moisture, the chance for rain with the front is low (20% or less). With respect to temperatures, the most likely scenario is above-normal temperatures continuing with the colder end of probabilistic guidance (10th percentile) indicating above-normal temperatures in the front's wake. As a result of no appreciable cool down, breezy northerly winds and a drier, post-frontal air mass will increase fire weather concerns once again Thursday afternoon.

Warmer weather will return by Friday as southerly winds return with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. Another dry return flow (DRF) situation is possible Friday afternoon with at least elevated fire weather conditions.

Forecast uncertainty increases markedly by next weekend as various deterministic models and ensemble members indicate the potential for a strong cold front in close proximity to the Southern Plains. As a result, probabilistic guidance has an ~50 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentile. For now, the forecast trends cooler late Saturday into Sunday with the potential to trend even colder if the aforementioned front is stronger.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue through 12Z Monday. A northerly surface wind will prevail today before becoming light and variable this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 50 23 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 53 23 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 26 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 51 22 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 47 18 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 54 29 56 37 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.