textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across northwest Oklahoma with a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

- Near-normal temperatures will arrive by the middle part of the week with cooler nighttime temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today) Issued at 220 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Broken to overcast cloud cover will continue this afternoon with southerly winds. Even with the abundant cloud cover, temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the 70s to near 80 deg F (a few locations may only reach the upper 60s deg F) due to very warm low temperatures this morning. The southerly winds have started the low-level moisture advection, which will set the stage for our severe weather risk tomorrow.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Severe weather is expected Monday, with the risk beginning early in the morning across northwest Oklahoma and extending across the remaining area Monday afternoon and night as a large upper-level trough across the southwest U.S. amplifies as it phases with the subtropical jet stream (STJ) across the Plains.

A lead wave associated with the subtropical jet stream (STJ) will approach late tonight, bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms originating from the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma early Monday morning. The primary hazard with this initial activity will be damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. While storms should gradually weaken as they move eastward Monday morning, some re-intensification near the I-35 corridor early Monday afternoon is possible.

As synoptic-scale ascent associated with a secondary wave lifts into the Plains in the afternoon, a surface low will deepen across Nebraska with a trailing dryline located across central Kansas into western Oklahoma/western Texas just east of the 100th meridian. In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms, surface heating ahead of the dryline (afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s deg F) combined with moisture advection (dew points in the low to mid 60s deg F) will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by late afternoon across western Oklahoma into western northern Texas. Combined with effective bulk of shear 45 to 60 knots, the environment will favor supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. As the low-level jet strengthens in the evening, increasing low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) associated with enlarged hodographs will gradually increase the tornado threat (including the potential for strong tornadoes).

Strong, linear forcing will likely result in some upscale growth of the convective mode with a mixed-storm mode of broken line segments and supercells with the potential for embedded supercell/QLCS tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the thunderstorms move to the east-northeast Monday evening and night. Storms are forecast to exit southeast Oklahoma early Tuesday morning.

The primary uncertainty centers around the extent and persistence of remnant showers and thunderstorms in the morning into early afternoon. Widespread cloud cover and precipitation could limit diurnal destabilization prior to late afternoon redevelopment (i.e., reducing the chance for a second round of robust convection). However, breezy, southerly low-level winds providing continuous theta-e/moisture advection give a reasonable chance for the atmosphere to have some recovery. It is noteworthy that the forecast dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening are near normal high temperatures for early November (i.e., this is anomalous moisture for early November).

Cooler and drier weather will arrive for Tuesday as a Pacific cold front passes by as the system departs. Seasonable high temperatures are expected (60s and 70s deg F) Tuesday afternoon with breezy northwest winds. The drier air mass will set the stage for a cool night with lows 40s deg F Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

More tranquil weather expected for Wednesday with slightly warmer than normal temperatures and light winds. Models then show a weaker shortwave coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. A few showers may occur on Thursday, but the models show the wave weakening as it moves across the area. May end up with mainly an increase in clouds across the northern half of the area during the day, cooling temperatures there by a degree or two from previous day.

Northwest flow then develops as we approach the weekend with the potential for a few shortwave diving south through the central and southern Plains. Model differences increase by this time with regards to the strength of these individual wave and the potential for additional precip chances.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected over the next 24 hours, each with the potential for strong, erratic winds and reduced visibilities. First round will be overnight toward early morning approaching from the panhandles and weakening through western Oklahoma. We could see the line redevelop near the I-35 corridor during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Finally, additional thunderstorms will develop across Oklahoma toward evening. Using prob30s for now due to uncertainties in timing and areal coverage.

MVFR ceilings are expected to hold over western Oklahoma, while the rest of the area sees improvement this evening. Some redevelopment of brief MVFR ceilings will be possible around the dawn hours.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 63 76 55 68 / 0 70 80 0 Hobart OK 64 80 54 70 / 10 40 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 64 83 55 73 / 0 40 50 0 Gage OK 61 78 49 64 / 60 20 20 0 Ponca City OK 61 76 55 68 / 0 60 80 10 Durant OK 62 84 60 75 / 0 10 100 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.