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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Colder temperatures and strong northerly winds are expected behind a cold front Sunday, with gusts of 50-60 mph expected.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather possible Sunday due to strong winds.

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in the single digits and teens.

- Dry weather persists with near-record heat possible by the end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Above average temperatures and increasing south winds are expected today as a trough digging across the northern Rockies induces cyclogenesis across the central Plains. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s for most of the area with winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph at times. This will lead to another day of elevated fire weather across our far western OK and western north TX counties this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy overnight as a strong low-level jet will be positioned overhead. A cold strong front will approach northwest OK late tonight, impacting the area during the day Sunday.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A trough will continue to deepen across the central US, with the mid- level speed max forecast to dive southeastward across the region on Sunday. A cold front will cross the area during the morning, bringing falling temperatures and very strong winds behind it. The NBM has been relatively consistent in showing gusts potentially over 60 mph across much of western OK and western north TX, with gusts of 50-60 mph into central OK. Given the strength of the 925-850 mb wind field and the degree of mixing forecast behind the front, see no reason to deviate from this in the forecast. A High Wind Watch remains in effect Sunday for much of the area outside of southeast OK, but a Wind Advisory will likely be necessary for these areas as well.

The strong winds will bring a fire risk as well, though strong cold advection behind the front will likely temper this threat somewhat. Regardless, with such high winds any fire that starts will be capable of rapid spread given the state of the fuels (ERCs of 80- 90th percentile). As of now the greatest overall fire risk will be across southern/southwest OK and western north TX, where near- critical to critical conditions are forecast. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Sunday for most of the area along and west of I-35.

Slight chances for rain/snow showers remain across northern OK Sunday afternoon/evening on the backside of the trough, but dry advection in the low levels will keep precipitation at the surface very light. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday night, with chilly temperatures settling in by Monday morning. Lows could fall into the teens across northwest OK, with twenties elsewhere. Lingering north winds will make it feel even colder, with wind chills potentially in the single digits across northern OK Monday morning. Highs will be slightly below average Monday (a rarity this winter), with mid to upper 40s across northern OK and mid 50s near the Red River.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The forecast for much of next week features quite the weather whiplash as we swing from a widespread hard freeze Monday morning to potentially record breaking heat by the end of the week as a large upper ridge expands its influence across the western and central US through the week. NBM continues to show some eye-popping temperatures for the end of next week into next weekend, with 90th percentile values (reasonable worst case) approaching 110 degrees across southwest OK and western north TX and over 100 degrees into central OK. The NBM mean isn't nearly this extreme, but would still be near all-time March records, as it shows several days of widespread 90+ degree temperatures and nearly 100 degrees across the southwest. Unfortunately, this pattern is highly unlikely to yield any significant precipitation chances for the next 7-10 days, which will only act to worsen ongoing drought and maintain the fire risk across the area.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Light south southeast winds overnight tonight before increasing through the afternoon and into late Saturday night to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. There is a low probability for MVFR ceilings at DUA through the morning tomorrow, thus scattered clouds have been maintained in this TAF issuance. Tomorrow night, the low-level jet will increase into the early morning hours Sunday with low-level wind shear likely for a few hours after midnight Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 57 65 24 / 0 0 10 0 Hobart OK 83 53 63 22 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 86 63 73 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 83 41 52 19 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 79 49 60 20 / 0 0 20 0 Durant OK 79 61 77 29 / 0 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ004>030-033>040-044-045.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041- 044>046-050.

TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ083>090.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ083>090.