textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through at least next Tuesday.

- Dry through Monday, with increasing precipitation chances across western Oklahoma by Tuesday.

- Rain & storm chances increase Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for much cooler/seasonable conditions by the end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Sensible conditions will remain generally uninspiring across the region today - unless, of course, you enjoy hot temperatures! Broad/weak anticyclonic flow in the mid-troposphere will return across the Plains today as a more prominent ridge begins to establish. Afternoon temperatures will again warm into the upper-80s to low-90s along with sunny skies and a southerly breeze.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

There remains high confidence that unseasonably hot and dry weather continues during the upcoming weekend. A shortwave ridge looks to become further amplified across the Plains/Ozarks, as two prominent upper systems (including then extratropical cyclone Isaias) affect each coast. Sunday looks to be a bit warmer (more prevalent 90s readings) and windier compared to Saturday. Gusts >30 mph will be possible across western Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Sunday afternoon into early evening.

While wetting rains late last week have helped to lessen fire weather concern throughout the week, day-over-day hot and mostly sunny conditions, combined with <25% relative humidity and stronger daytime wind gusts, will open the door for local/sporadic elevated fire weather conditions during the period (mainly across western Oklahoma and western-north Texas).

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Monday currently looks to feature low end (~10-30%) potential for record-setting heat and mostly dry weather, as the previous upper ridge remains the dominant regional control of sensible conditions. Overnight conditions will become notably warmer by Monday night as well, with minimum temperatures +5-10 degrees (near 70 degrees) compared to late this week/weekend.

The pattern looks to turn more active by the time we get to Tuesday as Pacific-based systems, including the remnants of Hurricane Simon, begin to shift closer to the area. While our current gridded forecast calls for the hottest temperatures of the next week on Tuesday (mid-90s), the combination of a more muted low-level thermal response, increasingly cloudy skies and at least low (~20-30%) potential for rain/storms casts some doubt on achieving these well above-average conditions.

Better/more widespread chances for rain and storms look to materialize by Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a previously closed upper system across the Great Basin begins to open and accelerate eastward towards the Plains. Given a seasonably anomalous moisture advection pattern in advance of this system, and with continued warm temperatures, we will be keeping a close watch on the potential for strong-severe thunderstorms by this time as well.

A more notable frontal passage and associated cooldown looks occur a bit later than previously advertised, now focused on Thursday into Friday. Depending on the speed/timing of the front, some continued rain/storm chance is possible across central and eastern portions of the area into Thursday evening.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning, will shift to the south-southeast today. Winds will weaken below 5 kt at most locations again tonight into Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 90 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 90 60 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 91 61 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 90 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 90 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 91 62 88 63 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.