textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of western Oklahoma on Monday afternoon and evening.

- Low-medium chance for rainfall on Tuesday-Tuesday evening; greater chances for precipitation towards the late week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1246 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A very warm and low-impact weather day is expected across Oklahoma and western-north Texas today. After widely scattered morning sprinkles, and even a band of very light rainfall accumulation from ~Elk City to Stillwater, dry surface weather continues to take hold early this afternoon.

While areas of mid/high clouds are noted across portions of the region, and a weak surface front continues to meander southward, temperatures this afternoon will run 5-10 degrees warmer compared to Saturday. Low-80s readings are likely over the coming hours across far southwestern Oklahoma and western-north Texas, with widespread 70s elsewhere.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1246 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The main weather message will transition from concerning fire weather on Monday to the potential for measurable rainfall on Tuesday.

MONDAY: The background synoptic pattern will feature local shortwave ridging, as a strong upper system slides across the Northern Plains and as a cutoff low remains anchored across the Baja Peninsula. Temperatures more akin to mid-Spring are expected areawide during the afternoon, with widespread near-80 degree readings likely.

A lee low, in response to the aforementioned northern stream wave, will sharpen the surface pressure gradient across western and northwestern Oklahoma during the daytime. This will result in gusty southwesterly winds, especially across northwestern Oklahoma, where frequent gusts of 25-30 mph are expected through sunset.

Combined with very low relative humidity (<15-20%), and an increasingly troublesome state of fine fuels, problematic fire weather conditions are expected to develop across far western into northwestern Oklahoma from the afternoon into early evening. One caveat to this risk we continue to assess is the potential for increasing high clouds into the afternoon across the aforementioned risk area. Current expectations are for areas of densest cloud cover to remain south of the Red River through the peak of the burn period on Monday.

TUESDAY: A strong/southward-moving surface front looks to enter northern Oklahoma during the predawn hours on Tuesday. Overnight temperatures ahead of the front (southern two-thirds of Oklahoma) look to be quite warm (50s to near-60) with increasing clouds and a continued south/southwest breeze. We have opted to increase magnitudes of northerly winds and wind gusts on Tuesday behind the front, owing to a notable gradient in pressure, and as diurnal mixing into a 30+ knot low-level jet begins after sunrise.

The daytime temperature forecast on Tuesday is quickly becoming tricky, with increasing potential for a 20+ degree spread from Woodward-Enid-Ponca City to Wichita Falls-Ardmore-Durant. The aforementioned front is also expected to slow throughout the daytime such that locations across central Oklahoma may observe their high temperature during the morning hours (with subsequent cooling conditions into the afternoon). Interests with temperature-sensitive outdoor activities should monitor subsequent updates as the frontal timing and location come into better focus.

As the once closed subtropical system across Baja begins to open up and lift northward, chances for precipitation are expected to locally increase. This potential looks to focus in areas near and south of the surface front on Tuesday late afternoon into evening. It still appears as though rainfall with this event (exiting our southeastern counties early on Wednesday) will only yield very light totals, on the order of 0.1" or less on average.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1254 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Models show another upper trough could move across the region towards the end of the week into next weekend which will bring a chance for rain to the entire fa. The above average temperatures are also expected to continue through the rest of the week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Light and variable winds will continue tonight. Fog may develop in southeast Oklahoma, which could impact KDUA around sunrise. However, the probability of impacting the terminal (~15%) is too low to include in the TAFs.

Winds will become predominantly south to southwest late tonight into tomorrow morning. These winds will become breezy across west central/northwest Oklahoma (KCSM/KWWR). Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is likely toward the end of the TAF period across northwest into west central Oklahoma.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 79 56 60 / 0 0 0 20 Hobart OK 42 78 53 59 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 45 80 58 75 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 38 80 39 54 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 39 78 48 58 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 45 79 59 76 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for OKZ004-005-009>011-014-015.

TX...None.