textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger continues today. Then finally some relief on the way.

- A cold front arrives tonight/Sunday, bringing medium-high rain chances and more seasonable temperatures next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

One last areawide hot day today with high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 104 or so. Heat Index values will approach but generally remain under 105 today, so will not issue a Heat Advisory today. But with lots of sunshine and the warm temperatures, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Risk will be moderate to high today, so there remains the potential of heat- related illness for those participating in outdoor activities this afternoon.

As with the past few days, forecast wind speeds and minimum afternoon humidity do not reach traditional thresholds for Red Flag fire weather conditions, but the very dry fuels over much of the area have still shown they are prone to active wildfires and a Fire Danger Statement will be issued.

Meanwhile, a cold front currently in the northwestern corner of the Sunflower State will move southeast through the day approaching the northwest corner of the forecast area around 00Z. Some of the CAMs develop convection near and ahead of the front late this afternoon across northwest Oklahoma, with the HRW-FV3 showing the potential of convection developing in north central Oklahoma as well.

Convection will become more widespread this evening as the front continues to move into the area, with the highest chances remaining in northern Oklahoma tonight. Instability will be sufficient to support the potential for strong to isolated severe storms. Deep layer shear is fairly weak across much of the area, although is higher near the Kansas border where 30-35 knots of 6 km shear will be possible where the highest potential for organized storms will be, although widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

The front will move relatively slowly tonight and likely extend from north central Oklahoma into west central or southwest Oklahoma by sunrise Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at sunrise Sunday morning with increasing chances and more widespread coverage expected to develop through the day, especially near and south of the cold front. Deep layer wind shear is forecast to be a little stronger Sunday than Saturday night, so there will be the potential of better organization of surface-based thunderstorms that will develop through the day, in line with the SPC's introduction of a Slight Risk of severe storms on Sunday.

The cold front itself will likely not move too much through the day on Sunday as shortwave aloft approaches the Southern Plains, and then accelerate southward Sunday night as the shortwave moves east of the area. The highest chances of thunderstorms Sunday night will shift south and east with the front.

Through the day Sunday, cooler temperatures will have filtered into northwestern Oklahoma behind the cold front, but hot temperatures will persist across southern Oklahoma and north Texas ahead of the front. Lower high temperatures are forecast areawide on Monday as the front pushes into Texas and the surface ridge builds into Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oklahoma and north Texas will remain in the more seasonable weather pattern through the remainder of the week. Through the mid-week, precipitation chances will mainly be confined to the west where upslope post-frontal air assists in the development of convection on the High Plains, but the question will be if these thunderstorms can move far enough east to reach the 100th Meridian. Storm chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday as models generally show a upper trough approaching the area, although there are differences in the models on the specific evolution of the pattern on Thursday/Friday which would potential affect timing and how high the precipitation chances will be late in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with a south or south-southwest wind at most sites. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop along and ahead of a cold front across northwest OK by late afternoon, with chances expanding eastward overnight. The stronger storms could have strong and erratic wind gusts in their vicinity. The front itself will bring a northerly wind shift but is not expected to cross most sites until just after the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 98 75 94 66 / 0 20 70 60 Hobart OK 100 76 98 66 / 10 20 60 30 Wichita Falls TX 101 76 100 67 / 0 0 60 50 Gage OK 100 70 90 61 / 30 30 20 20 Ponca City OK 98 72 89 64 / 10 60 70 50 Durant OK 100 74 100 70 / 0 0 30 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.