textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns linger through Tuesday.

- Daily rain and storm chances return on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Besides the elevated fire risk over northwest Oklahoma, today will be a pleasantly cool spring day across most the area...

Mid-level clouds have been quite stubborn tonight and have remained over northwest into west-central Oklahoma. Therefore, we have raised low temperatures for this area this morning and freezing temperatures are looking highly doubtful. Given this trend, have increased cloud- cover some for today, but suspect dense cloud-cover may hang on longer than forecast across central Oklahoma today. Temperatures will be on the cool-side compared to the record-warmth observed last week. High temperatures will be in the 60's - with the coolest temperatures expected over parts of southwest/southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Northeast winds are trending downward tonight and will begin to veer to the south with the departure of the surface high and the establishment of the lee-side trough. Southerly winds will become modestly breezy over northwest Oklahoma by afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 mph expected due to daytime mixing. With the dry air mass remaining in place, low relative humidity (15-25%) combined with gusty south winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions northwest Oklahoma this afternoon through just before sunset.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Hot and windy conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday, along with elevated to near critical fire weather concerns...

The center of the mid-level ridge shifts east-southeastward across south Texas and reaches the Gulf on Sunday as the surface high arrives along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough approaches within the westerly mid-level flow and results in the deepening of the lee-side trough and breezy south-southwest winds on Sunday with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and widespread gusts to 45 mph possible. A Wind Advisory appears probable for much of the FA, including southwest to west-central to north-central Oklahoma. The enhanced return flow will increase dewpoint temperatures across much of the area and much warmer temperatures on Sunday, with highs in the 80's to near 90 deg over parts of western OK and adjacent north TX. Despite the increased low-level moisture, the hot temperatures out west will yield low relative humidity values in the teens (northwest/west OK) and near 30% across parts of central Oklahoma.

Another shortwave will bring similar conditions to the area on Monday, though temperatures and winds will tick upwards compared to Sunday which will lead to a larger area of near critical fire weather conditions on Monday (currently forecast across much of western Oklahoma.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Warm and breezy conditions (along with fire risk) continue on Tuesday. There is more of a consistent signal of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area. While the severe risk is still muted somewhat at this range, model soundings suggest moderate instability, modest uni-directional shear, relatively high cloud bases, and steep low-level lapse rates, which would support strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing gusty winds and some hail. For now, the benefit of receiving rainfall appears greater than the severe risk. Unfortunately, the probability of receiving at least 0.5" of rainfall with this system is low (<20%) across most of the CWA with a medium potential (40-50%) for areas south of I-40 and east of I-35.

The dynamic synoptic pattern continues through the end of next week, with rain/storm chances returning daily through Friday.

Thompson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Extensive mid level clouds remain over the area, along with some very light rain showers across southern OK. Expect showers to continue ti diminish over the next few hours while cloud cover will slowly erode from north to south tonight into the day on Saturday. Northeast winds will continue to decrease the rest of tonight, becoming east-southeast Saturday morning. Winds will then increase once again and veer more southerly Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 65 47 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 64 43 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 63 44 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 67 44 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 65 46 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 65 50 81 60 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.