textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Rainy/stormy day and night expected across the region; Severe thunderstorms will be possible across southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler across northern and central Oklahoma on Thursday with rebounding heat by this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The long-awaited return of widespread precipitation chance remains in the forecast today, and many (if not all) of you are likely to see a period of rain today and/or tonight.

Splotchy coverage of rain and storms remains focused across northern Oklahoma early this morning, aided by a modest low- level jet/isentropic ascent. The main hazards with thunderstorms throughout the morning will be lightning and perhaps some strong wind gusts beneath taller thunderstorm cores.

As a subtle mid-level perturbation approaches from the northwest, rain/storm coverage should steadily increase from just after sunrise into the early afternoon along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. This synoptic system and increasingly cool airmass behind a convectively-modified surface front should help surge activity further southward towards the Red River by the late afternoon into early evening. While heaviest rainfall totals (perhaps upwards of 2-3" on a very local basis) will occur under more persistent thunderstorm activity, areas along-east of the I-35 corridor have medium (30-50%) confidence in seeing more widespread >0.5" rainfall totals by midnight tonight.

There will be potential for at least sporadic damaging wind gusts with activity across southern Oklahoma/Red River Valley into the early evening, as potential for slightly greater storm organization/cold pool consolidation occurs within a previously hot airmass.

Speaking of temperatures, a notable gradient in daytime temperatures is expected today, with the coolest conditions in nearly two months possible across northern and central Oklahoma. Hi-res ensemble guidance captures medium-high (50-70%) potential of temperatures remaining <85 deg F in areas along and north of an Sayre-Norman- Ada line on Thursday. Temperatures near and south of the Red River are likely to warm into the mid-90s, with some possibility of near 105 deg F heat indices around midday (prior to the arrival of rain/storms).

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Some lingering rain/storm activity appears possible across the Red River Valley after sunset on Thursday evening, though coverage may tend to wane compared to earlier in the evening. Another focused period for (scattered) rain and storms is evident during the predawn hours on Friday morning across central into southeastern Oklahoma, as another modest low-level jet/isentropic lift regime develops. Severe weather is not currently anticipated with this round of thunderstorm activity, though small hail/gusty winds cannot be discounted with the strongest thunderstorm cores. Depending on the degree of cloud cover and precipitation development, areas of patchy fog will be possible across central and northern Oklahoma towards daybreak Friday morning as well.

Friday looks to trend back towards warmer and drier conditions, as a western CONUS upper ridge begins to re-establish. High temperatures running +5-15 degrees above average (90s; hottest southwest) for mid- September seem likely at this point. Diurnal convection across the combined panhandles will need to be watched, though for now looks to decay prior to arriving across western Oklahoma and western-north Texas during the late evening.

Forecast uncertainty begins to precipitously (no pun intended) rise into the weekend and beyond. The regional synoptic pattern looks to feature a slowly amplifying upper ridge with several upper waves (of varying magnitude) moving to our north/east. We will initially be watching trends on the potential for a convective cluster across northern Oklahoma on Saturday morning. CAM guidance that covers this period is extremely bearish on coverage/development, with most showing a dry forecast during this time. However, with a notable low-level jet and strong pool of instability present during the predawn hours, we will maintain at least low (~20-30%) storm mention. Interests with outdoor events/gatherings on Saturday morning and early afternoon across northern Oklahoma should continue to check back with us. Otherwise, there is high confidence in the return of heat headlines on Saturday across at least the southern one-third of the area, where afternoon heat indices look to rise above 105 deg F.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

We look to remain generally dry with continued above-normal warmth on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies. Daily highs look to continue running in the mid-90s to low-100s, with potential for even warmer heat indices.

The next curveball in the forecast arrives on Tuesday into Wednesday, as a strong upper trough begins to round the periphery of the ridge. There is increasingly strong agreement that this feature will push a notable front southward across the Plains during this time. If this occurs, and reaches our area, "less hot" conditions would materialize towards the end of the period. As of this morning, grand ensemble guidance shows a medium (30-60%) chance for daytime highs <90 deg F across portions of western into northern Oklahoma from Tuesday onward.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered rain/storms this morning into evening, and potential for fog/stratus during the predawn on Friday morning, will offer potential for category reduction during the upcoming period.

While the widely scattered/discontinuous nature of precipitation cores will make duration short, MVFR to perhaps IFR vis is possible should heavier cells impact terminals today. A coherent wind shift is expected to progress southward across Oklahoma and north Texas into the early evening, sharply veering surface wind direction and allowing for a sustained period of northeasterly winds. Wind direction should ebb back towards a predominate south- southeasterly direction several hours after passage of the front/outflow.

While initial inclusion highlights near-MVFR conditions, monitoring potential for stratus and/or fog into Friday morning, especially at terminals along and east of the I-35 corridor. Potential for continued precipitation areas/clouds during this time raises uncertainty.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 87 68 92 73 / 80 20 20 0 Hobart OK 90 68 98 74 / 60 30 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 96 71 99 75 / 70 30 20 0 Gage OK 84 63 95 71 / 60 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 81 65 90 70 / 90 10 10 10 Durant OK 97 73 96 74 / 50 40 50 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.