textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Low storm & severe weather chances across portions of northern and central Oklahoma during the evening/night through Saturday.

- Dangerous heat and humidity through sunset today; Generally improving/"less hot" conditions this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

It's setting up to be another hot and humid one across Oklahoma and western-north Texas, with (low) chances for storms/severe weather as we roll into the evening and nighttime periods.

Previous widely scattered rain showers continue to slowly dissipate as warm mid-level ascent wanes. While a modest south-southwesterly breeze and remnant (scattered) cloud cover may provide temporary heat "relief" today, 100-110 F heat indices remain forecast for much of the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma. Despite increasing potential for us to fall short of criteria heat indices in portions of central Oklahoma, we will maintain the previous Heat Advisory configuration until 8 PM this evening.

The presence of a weak boundary and hot/well-mixed conditions within a surface pressure trough may provide enough support for isolated thunderstorm development across northern Oklahoma this evening (after 4-5 PM). Any storm in this regime will be capable of strong-damaging downburst wind events. Remnant cloud cover and weak subsidence behind a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) across northern Oklahoma have decreased confidence in mid-evening storm development compared to previous forecasts.

By the late evening (9-10 PM onward), evolving convection across western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle will become the main focus for storm potential across portions of far northern Oklahoma. It still appears that much of this activity will remain confined to far southern Kansas, though some risk for strong-damaging wind gusts, lightning and brief heavy rainfall may spread southward across the Oklahoma/Kansas border late tonight.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The heat stress risk looks to temper some as we head into the weekend, with continued chances for morning then eveningtime scattered rain and storms.

Warmed/Desert Southwest airmasses are forecast to become more confined to our west, along with generally reduced day-over-day evapotranspiration potential. This combination will in turn yield less hot and drier surface conditions, resulting in generally <105 F heat indices during the period. Despite this, still use caution if you plan to spend prolonged time outdoors during the daytime.

Warm isentropic ascent will promote another morning of scattered light precipitation cores across western into northern Oklahoma on Friday, with a main hazard of sporadic cloud-to-ground lightning. We will again watch a lingering frontal boundary for scattered thunderstorm potential (with a wind/hail risk) along and north of Interstate 40 into the evening, though most locations will remain dry. While a coherent area of Southern High Plains convection will focus further south on Friday (i.e., Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles), it currently appears that most activity will decay prior to reaching western Oklahoma.

A more evident risk of storms and severe weather arrives by Saturday late afternoon into evening, as a majority of guidance propagates a convectively-enhanced mid-level system (and stronger front) across the area. Damaging downburst wind gusts will remain the primary hazard, though a few instances of large hail may also occur with more organized/persistent thunderstorms during this time.

Ungar

Previous Discussion

Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Temperatures through the latter half of the weekend into early next week will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see over the next few days. A mid-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will shift to the north, and move into the central and high Plains. Across our area, we will see mostly dry conditions and a warm up back into the mid to upper upper 90s for the latter half of the week.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A few isolated storms are possible this afternoon (mainly north of I- 40), but confidence is too low for mention in TAFs. Storms will be possible again overnight across northern Oklahoma (prob30 at KWWR for this possibility). Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of lightning and gusty/erratic winds.

Otherwise, VFR conditions with breezy south to southwest winds this afternoon, diminishing overnight and becoming gusty again tomorrow. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible toward morning, but confidence is too low for mention in TAF.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 100 79 97 / 0 10 10 30 Hobart OK 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 79 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 74 99 73 98 / 30 20 40 10 Ponca City OK 77 95 76 93 / 20 20 40 30 Durant OK 80 98 80 96 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.