textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon and early evening across portions of western and northern Oklahoma and western-north Texas.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through Tuesday, with more seasonable/cooler temperatures by late next week.

- Chances for rain & storms return to portions of western and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday, and expand across more of the area by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall and strong-severe storms will be possible during this time.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Another hot, dry and windy day is expected as we close out the weekend. Upper-level heights will continue to rise throughout the day as a regional shortwave ridge amplifies. Unseasonably hot temperatures will persist, with widespread low-90s readings throughout the afternoon. Southwesterly winds/gusts may also be a touch stronger (more frequently >30-35 mph) compared to yesterday, especially across the western one-half of Oklahoma.

While a slow influx of "richer" surface moisture will prevent relative humidity from tumbling (i.e., falling below 20%) during the afternoon hours, the combination of gusty winds, hot temperatures and slow degradation of short-response fuels will again offer potential for elevated fire weather conditions across western extents of the forecast area. Accordingly, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in place from 12 PM to 7 PM today.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

At least one more day of hot and dry weather rolls on into Monday, as stronger mid/upper-tropospheric flow begins to overspread the Rockies. Low potential for widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms is evident across the central and eastern Texas Panhandle, though any development that occurs here is likely to dissipate prior to impacting the far western fringes of the forecast area in the evening.

The forecast remains more changeable, including renewed chances for rain/storms, as we move into Tuesday. While daytime temperatures still look to be notably hot for this point in fall (upper-80s to low-90s), we have lowered forecast highs 1-4 degrees compared to previous forecast iterations. The primary reason to note this is the reduced potential for achieving daily records for October 13th.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur across the Texas Panhandle, western and northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas by the afternoon and evening, as a lead wave perturbation (remnants of Hurricane Simon) slides across this corridor. Strong preceding moisture flux, increasing mid-tropospheric flow and warm temperatures all point to the potential for some degree of strong-severe storm risk, with primary hazards of damaging winds and hail expected.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The primary message by the middle to end of next week remains the potential for additional rainy/stormy periods and eventually a drop in temperatures towards more traditional fall-like readings.

A closed upper low and intensifying subtropical jet look to slowly progress eastward during the period. It is becoming more apparent that that primary features of interest on the synoptic scale may be embedded/weaker systems traversing the subtropical jet, as opposed to the larger polar-originating trough located near the Four Corners.

This only acts to increase uncertainty regarding timing/placement of better precipitative chance from Wednesday onward. The picture becomes even muddier when adding the arrival of a slow-moving cold front across northern portions of Oklahoma sometime on Wednesday. At least episodic rounds/areas of rain and storms are likely during the period, and those with outdoor obligations should continue to check back in as these periods of greater coverage are identified for your area(s) of interest.

Not all activity is expected to come in the form of benign fall showers, with potential for both locally heavy rainfall/flooding and strong-severe storms on Wednesday and Thursday.

Eventually, as a stronger/fast-moving upper trough digs across portions of the northern Plains/Midwest, a reinforced frontal intrusion is likely across Oklahoma and north Texas. For now, this looks to occur by Friday, with the return of near to possibly below-average temperatures by this time.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. LLWS is expected to continue this morning until shortly after sunrise. LLWS will be possible at most TAF sites again Monday morning. Otherwise, gusty south-southwesterly winds are expected across the area today, with upper- level clouds passing through the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 90 68 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 92 68 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 93 66 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 91 67 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 91 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 91 65 88 72 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.