textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Above-normal temperatures expected through Thursday, cooling closer to average Friday into the weekend.

- Next chance for rain is late Saturday into Sunday, with most likely amounts of a quarter inch to an inch of rain across the area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Today will be sunny and mild (highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s) with light northerly to westerly winds. The coolest temperatures will be in north central Oklahoma where more northerly winds will be drawing from a cold air mass to our northeast. The colder air will make a bigger push into our area late tonight, bringing Friday morning lows down into the mid 30s across northern Oklahoma to the mid 40s along and south of the Red River. Parts of north central Oklahoma will have about a 10-30% chance of dropping to freezing.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

As cooler air continues to filter into the region, Friday will see highs in the mid 50s (north central OK) to the mid 60s (near the Red River) with mostly sunny skies and fairly light winds. Saturday morning will see temperatures approaching freezing in north central Oklahoma with a 30-60% chance of crossing that threshold (mid 30s to mid 40s elsewhere).

An upper wave will approach on Saturday, but most of the rain looks to hold off till late afternoon / evening (low chances of an earlier start). So, most of the day will just be cloudy and gusty with highs in the 50s and 60s again.

Day

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rain chances start to increase from the west Saturday evening and overnight, continuing through the day Sunday, though there remain significant synoptic uncertainties in the path and timing of the upper wave. Most ensemble members track the central precipitation axis somewhere between I-40 and well south of the Red River (through central Texas), though there are a few outliers on either side. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches appear likely along that axis (but, again, this could be southwest of our forecast area). A few embedded thunderstorms may be possible, but instability may be a limiting factor.

Uncertainty in the temperature forecast peaks on Sunday, largely due to the aforementioned synoptic / precipitation uncertainties. A few representative interquartile ranges are copied below:

- Ponca City / Woodward / Oklahoma City: 45 to 55 - Durant: 52 to 59 - Lawton / Hobart: 49 to 62 - Wichita Falls: 52 to 70

Higher confidence in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday once the wave passes where we should see highs in the 50s to lower 60s with some cloudiness (but no rain). From there we transition into more southwesterly flow and the potential for active weather that brings.

Day

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds and clear skies expected overnight. Winds will remain light from the north and then northeast Thursday into Thursday evening with a few high clouds from time to time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 69 40 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 73 42 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 45 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 66 34 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 43 66 41 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.