textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall late Friday into Saturday.

- Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected Sunday and into middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Surface observations currently show the moisture gradient tightening along an axis of dilatation extending away from the surface low pressure in Iowa. As the daytime progresses, the dry airmass will mix a little further east. The "dryness" of the air will be tempered some by the widespread rain footprint from yesterday which will introduce at least some latent heating into the equation, particularly further south and east where spring green-up is underway.

The cumulative effect of this is that we anticipate a rather limited spatial window for truly elevated fire concerns. A portion of northwest Oklahoma (Woods/Harper/Woodward/Ellis Counties and parts of their immediate neighbors) missed out on rain and will see elevated fire weather this afternoon. However, slackening winds during the minimum-RH period suggests that conditions will fall short of needing a Rangeland Fire Danger statement.

As is usual this time of year, winds will shift to southerly right after sunset. This will allow the moist airmass to wash back over much of the area overnight and keep low temperatures in the 60s.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Primary short-term hazard will be one or two rounds of storms from tomorrow afternoon through Saturday morning. Severe weather is probable although the overall "ceiling" for severe impacts looks rather low, and heavy rainfall is expected.

Tomorrow morning, another surface low will develop across Kansas as a compact trough ejects further north. Given how compact the wave is, height falls will be replaced by height rises quite rapidly across the Front Range and High Plains in the afternoon and evening. That will begin the process of accelerating a strong cold front southward where it will meet the antecedent moist airmass in northern Oklahoma. Two distinct waves of storms are possible:

1) A round of storms kicked off by a subtle wave in the STJ well ahead of the cold front. Multiple members of the 12Z guidance suite depicted this, including the HRRR, 3km NAM, and members of the MPAS. Moderate instability and weak low-level/deep-layer shear should cause those storms to grow upscale into clusters or a line segment. The damaging wind risk will be tempered some by deep saturation within the profiles, but very heavy rain and lightning are likely, along with some damaging wind gusts from rear inflow jets or water- laden downbursts. These storms will progress eastward during the evening across the southern 2/3 of the area.

2) A round of storms kicked off late in the evening and lasting through the rest of the night as the cold front pushes southward. Given the north-south sink of the front, this round will feature anafrontal convection with individual cores moving closer to due east. However, with shear profiles enlarging, some organization to individual updrafts is possible with 1-2 inch hail and damaging winds possible.

Perhaps the biggest potential impact tomorrow night will be when the footprint of storms in regime 2 overlaps with the footprint of storms from regime 1. With PWATs surging over 1.5 inches, it seems likely that some areas (right now central Oklahoma looks likeliest) will see 2-4 inches of rain. Urban flooding and perhaps a few cases of flash flooding are possible.

The storms will end from northwest to southeast early Saturday morning as the frontal lines moves out. Behind it, expect clearing skies and a beautiful Saturday afternoon with temperatures in the 60s.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Mid-level ridging sets up to our west and a surface high will provide for beautiful weather conditions on Easter Sunday with light winds, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures rising into the upper 60's to mid 70's.

Dry conditions are expected through middle of next week with high temperatures remaining in the 70's.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

MVFR conditions will expand across much of the area overnight into Friday. LLWS is also expected to affect the northern half of the area through early Friday morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon through the remainder of the period. A cold front will sweep through the area starting tomorrow afternoon and advancing southward through the night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 65 79 49 63 / 0 70 90 20 Hobart OK 63 83 47 69 / 0 60 80 10 Wichita Falls TX 66 82 52 69 / 0 70 100 30 Gage OK 59 80 41 68 / 0 10 30 0 Ponca City OK 62 79 44 63 / 0 70 70 10 Durant OK 67 82 53 66 / 10 60 100 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.