textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Warmer temperatures Tuesday, hot Wednesday, then back closer to average late in the week.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Southeast to south winds overnight will come around to the southwest quickly Tuesday morning. This will bring much warmer temperatures back to Oklahoma and north Texas. Highs this afternoon will be back in the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s.

Otherwise, a weak surface front will stall just to the north of the area across Kansas as an upper low translates east across the Great Lakes region. This front may provide enough convergence for a few storms to develop. These will then propagate south/southeast and may move into northern Oklahoma late today. Any storm that does develop and move into northern Oklahoma could be strong to severe with large hail and some damaging wind risk.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As we go through Tuesday night the front quickly washes out with any lingering showers expected to dissipate. These south winds will also begin to advect increasing amounts of moisture back northward through the Plains.

Meanwhile, a large upper wave will move across the northern Plains dragging a surface cold front south through the Plains on Wednesday. A low level thermal ridge ahead of the front will make for a hot day across the area Wednesday. Highs will climb into the triple digits across much of northern and western Oklahoma and western north Texas Wednesday afternoon. These temperatures will combine with the increased moisture to create afternoon heat indices in the triple digits area-wide with much of northern, into central and western Oklahoma rising into advisory levels of 105-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed.

The front is expected to initially stall near the northern border Wednesday night before again moving south on Thursday, aided by some convection that develops along the front. Rain chances spread south on Thursday with the front pushing into northern Texas Thursday night. The front along with the associated precip and cloud cover will cool temperatures back down to near normal, at least across central and northern Oklahoma Thursday. Still expect upper 90s to near 100 degrees Thursday afternoon across far southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Some showers will linger into Friday morning across the south on Friday morning, but with cooler surface ridge building south through the MS valley and residual cloud cover temperatures Friday will again top out in the 80s, even across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Most of the weekend looks to be dry with perhaps a isolated shower or storm with warming trend. Triple digit heat returns to portions of the area by Sunday afternoon, along with advisory level heat indices.

Another weaker front may bring some additional rain chances to the area late Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MVFR stratus is building along the Red River, especially south central Oklahoma. This will likely be brief, breaking up by mid to late morning. Some fog, resulting in localized reductions in visibility will also be possible this morning.

Southerly winds will be light during the day, increasing overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to build back into south central Oklahoma again late tonight. Low level wind shear will be possible toward the end of the TAF period over northern Oklahoma.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 90 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 93 73 103 75 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 93 72 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 93 73 104 72 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 91 74 99 73 / 20 10 10 50 Durant OK 88 73 92 77 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.