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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1151 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Moderating back to near or slightly above normal temperatures for much of this week.

- Very limited precipitation potential this week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The warm up begins today with afternoon highs expected to range from the mid/upper 40s mainly in north central OK to low 60s in parts of western OK and western north TX. These highs would be 20 to 30 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon. The warm up will likely be a bit slower in those areas where snowpack lingers compared to surrounding locations but still climbing well above freezing aiding in the melting of the snow. The start of the warm up today is due to southwest/downslope flow.

Southwest winds continue tonight leading to warmer temperatures tonight as well. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 20s and 30s which would be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning's lows.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The warm up continues Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s although much of the fa is expected to climb into the 60s. These temperatures are above average for early February. Temperatures Monday night are also expected to be warmer across much of the fa with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Models show a shortwave approaching and moving across the region Monday night into Tuesday. At the sfc, a sfc low and cold front will move across the fa Monday evening into early Tuesday. The airmass behind this front is not particularly cold but will cause slightly cooler (~5 degrees cooler than Monday) temperatures Tuesday.

The sfc high that moved across the area this weekend will shift into the Gulf coast region. This will slow moisture return to the area ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave and front. However, 30s/40s dewpoints are expected to make it into parts of the fa. This may be enough moisture for a low (~20%) chance in SE parts of the fa late Monday night into Tuesday but the better chances are currently expected to be E and SE of the fa with this system.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The southwestern extent of the upper longwave trough remains over the area on Wednesday, then this trough shifts east and upper ridging develops to the west. This will keep any push of cold air more toward the Great Lakes and East Coast and well northeast of here. A warming trend will return Thursday and Friday with temperatures well above normal. The current models do show the potential of a front moving through on Friday night, but the primary push of cold air remains well to the northeast and only a slight cooling is expected if this front does move through.

As far as fire weather concerns, afternoon humidity on Thursday is expected to fall below 20 percent in northwest and west central Oklahoma with moderate west winds at 10 to 15 mph and elevated fire weather conditions may develop in this area. Otherwise the forecast humidity and wind values are currently not expected to produce elevated fire weather conditions elsewhere this week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites through the period with mainly clear skies and winds from the south or southwest. There's a chance we could see some stratus/fog develop across northern OK late tonight, but confidence in its formation is relatively low. For now a tempo for MVFR ceilings was added at PNC. High clouds will begin to increase from the west Monday, but mainly during the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 32 61 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 65 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 33 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 28 65 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 24 53 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 31 63 45 61 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.