textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts, are possible in northwest and far western Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.

- Elevated fire weather continues, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for northwest/far western Oklahoma for potential dry lightning strikes.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Three-pronged day of weather impacts today with heat, fire weather, and storms all vying for our attention. Perhaps the greatest concern is any overlap between the three hazards (eg: lightning-induced fires, downburst potential in extreme heat, etc).

It might end up being the hottest day of the summer (at least by air temperature) for quite a few folks today. This is largely because of a weak burst of southwesterly 500 mb flow which will originate off of the mountains in New Mexico, which will induce a 1000 mb low across the northern panhandles. This is a classic environment for downslope torching for us. With 850 mb temps sitting at 30C already, we should easily reduce surface temperatures to 105+ just about everywhere west of I-35 that doesn't get interfered with by cloud cover. The winter wheat belt and Cimarron valley of northern Oklahoma, in particular, will see high temperatures make a run at 110 and possibly as high as 112. It won't be a particularly dry heat, either, with a wave of Gulf moisture sloshing north-northeast through the area in the morning. All told, heat risk will be very high to extreme across much of the area today.

That southwesterly flow and slug of modified moisture will also encourage storms to develop across the high plains in the afternoon hours. Thanks to the effect of the lingering subtropical ridge, a large majority of our area will remain dry. CAM guidance shows a weak but clear signal for convective development by mid-afternoon in an axis from the eastern TX panhandle northeastward into northwest Oklahoma. Moderate instability (MLCAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg), weak deep-layer shear, and extremely mixed profiles with dewpoint depressions in excess of 40F will all encourage high-based, short- lived cores with significant downdraft potential (60-80 mph wind gusts possible). From Harmon to Roger Mills Counties, the explicit CAM signal is weaker, so confidence in storm development is lower. Still, the overall pattern (and the fact that storms fired just west of those counties this past evening in a worse environment) would suggest that convection can't be ruled out.

Elevated fire weather is expected across a rather broad swath of the western half of Oklahoma. RHs will drop to around 20 percent in a broad part of the area and peak wind gusts this afternoon should be comfortably at or above 30 mph. However, the biggest fire weather concern will be in the area that sees convection this afternoon. Despite rather robust PWATS in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, significant evaporation of downdrafts is likely to occur with those 40-50 dewpoint depressions. Therefore, dry lightning strikes will be a concern in western/northwest Oklahoma. Any fires that are ongoing at the time of a thunderstorm will also have to contend with erratic and strong outflow winds. The greatest overlap between storm potential and fire weather conditions has been highlighted by a Red Flag Warning today.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Tomorrow looks a little bit like today, but with the impact potential fortunately muted somewhat. Model guidance suggests that the belt of southwest flow across the high plains will weaken in response to a resurgence of the southeast ridge, and the surface low will be accordingly weaker. With a weaker blowtorch, air temperatures will drop back into the hot but not quite record- setting pace they've been so far during this latest heat wave.

Storm chances should continue Friday afternoon as well, though the more robust convection may move a little north and west into the northeastern panhandles instead of far northwest Oklahoma. Once again, the potential for strong to severe outflow winds and erratic fire behavior can't be ignored. Elevated fire weather is expected across a good chunk of western and southwest Oklahoma, as well, and fuels will start to become much more responsive toward the I-35 corridor.

I guess a forecast of 100-104 for much of the area on Saturday constitutes a "cooldown" at this point, though folks outside probably won't be thinking of the day as all that cool. The pressure gradient will abate somewhat as the center of the ridge inches closer and a shortwave trough to the north departs. This will keep us a little less breezy, a little less hot, and keep storm chances away from northwest Oklahoma for an evening.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

We welcome the ridge back overhead during the day on Sunday as a broad jet streak moves across the northern part of the country. This will be accompanied by a weak frontal boundary attempting to move into the northern part of the CWA. Those two competing factors will actually produce a weak gradient in high temperatures by Monday afternoon with hotter temperatures clustered around the Red River and highs in northern Oklahoma potentially remaining in the 90s. That frontal boundary is also the best chance anyone in our area has to receive significant drought-busting rainfall. Even those odds are not all that good, and mostly limited to far northern Oklahoma.

Guidance is starting to indicate that a trough could dig southward to near or into our CWA by the middle of next week. It's unclear whether this scenario comes to pass or not, but bears watching in the coming days. If we did get a trough passage, there would likely be impactful weather of some sort for mid-to-late next week - perhaps more extreme heat, or fire weather, or maybe even rain/storms.

Meister

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR ceilings expected this TAF period with some mid and high clouds later this afternoon/tonight. Breezy S to SW winds are expected into Friday except for any variable winds or brief wind shifts due to winds from thunderstorms/outflow boundaries. There are low chances (20-30%) for some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts. Blowing dust that may reduce visibility could also be possible due to the winds but too much uncertainty to put in any TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 103 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 106 80 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 106 78 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 107 77 104 76 / 20 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 105 80 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004-009-010-014>017- 021>048-050>052.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for OKZ005>008-011>013- 018>020.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.