textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Strong, gusty northerly winds are expected Friday behind a cold front.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon, especially across western Oklahoma.

- Colder, below-normal temperatures on Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Light and variable winds are ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning with a surface high centered across the Southern Plains. As a result, there is quite a bit of variation in surface temperatures in short distances with the planetary boundary layer (i.e., local terrain effects and winds) being the primary impact on temperatures.

Warmer, above-normal temperatures will return across Oklahoma and north Texas today as a downslope-warmed air mass advects eastward from the High Plains into the Southern Plains with a return to south to southwest surface winds. As a result, there will be an east-to-west temperature gradient this afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s deg F (east) to the mid 70s deg F (west).

As temperatures rise to 70s deg F near the 100th meridian, relative humidity values will fall to around 20%. Transient elevated fire weather conditions are possible; however, relatively light winds should prevent a greater fire weather risk today.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A cold front will advance southward across the Plains Thursday night into Friday as the attendant mid/upper-level trough digs southward. As with recent cold fronts, it will be a dry cold front passage with no chance of precipitation.

Strong, gusty northerly winds are expected during the day Friday with strong 925 to 700 mb winds as broad, cyclonic flow moves across the area in the wake of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate the potential of wind gusts between 35 to 55 mph with vertical mixing in some locations to ~750 mb. Northwest into west central Oklahoma are the most likely areas to have the highest wind gusts.

Cold air advection due to the northerly winds will result in steady and/or falling temperatures for many locations Friday afternoon with temperatures in the 40s and 50s deg F.

Dry air advection behind the cold front will result in dew points falling into the single digits. Therefore, even through air temperatures will be seasonable, relative humidity values are expected to fall to 20% or lower. Convective-allowing models and even some global models indicate the potential for relative humidity values around 10% or even lower.

The low relative humidity, combined with the strong northerly winds, will result in near-critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma and portions of northern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across much of the remaining area. The near-critical fire risk category indicates that conditions are favorable for problematic wildland fire ignitions and spread, including the possibility of a few large grass fires. The main mitigating factor for a greater fire weather risk is temperatures will be seasonable (i.e., not anomalously warm). Nevertheless, if the higher-end winds and lower-end relative humidity occur, some locations may reach critical fire weather conditions. Combined with fuels susceptible to fire spread due to the ongoing drought and limited rainfall (energy release component ranging from the 70th to 89th percentile), there will be a risk of problematic large fire occurrence given the total fire environment (fuels + weather). Fire weather conditions will improve Friday evening as winds decrease with the loss of daytime heating.

Light snow/flurries are possible Saturday as a fast-moving shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow provides synoptic- scale ascent above steep low-level lapse rates. No impactful accumulation is expected and it will be a scenario where most of the snow sublimates before reaching the surface given the dry subcloud layer (e.g., the radar mosaic will indicate a lot of echoes aloft that will end up being virga). The primary impact from the shortwave trough will abundant cloud cover and a reinforcing cold front. Cold, below-normal temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon with highs in the 30s and 40s deg F. The reinforcing cold front will bring breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon (though lighter than Friday). As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are possible. The risk is appreciably lower than Friday given the lighter winds, lower temperatures, and the expected cloud cover.

Light and variable winds, clearing skies, and a dry air mass Saturday evening will result in an excellent environment for radiational cooling. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the teens across much of the area.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Temperatures are expected to moderate on Sunday as once again a downslope-warmed air mass advects eastward with a return to south to southwest surface winds. There will likely be an east-to-west temperature gradient with the lowest temperatures to the east and the highest temperatures to the west.

The warmup will be brief as yet another cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night into Monday that will bring a return to below-normal temperatures on Monday before warmer weather returns on Tuesday. As we've often seen this winter, any cold air intrusions tend to be brief as downslope-warming off the higher terrain to our west quickly erodes the cold air as the surface high moves to the east. This typically occurs when Oklahoma and north Texas are the southwestern edge of a large-scale trough with embedded shortwave troughs providing frequent, dry frontal passages within northwest flow aloft.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds expected overnight before coming around to the southwest Thursday morning and increasing into the 10-20 mph range with some higher gusts by midday. Some high clouds will be possible. Winds go light around sunset tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon and move southeast toward the I-44 corridor by midnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 59 37 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 66 36 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 38 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 30 49 21 / 0 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 57 32 50 22 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 56 38 57 31 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.