textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Showers & thunderstorms possible this afternoon mainly east and south of the I-44 corridor - Hot & dry starting Sunday with excessive heating returning this upcoming week peaking on Tuesday

- Some relief from the excessive heat b mid-week with a back door cold front passage

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For this afternoon have 20-40% POPs for isolated thunderstorms across portions of both western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma into all of central Oklahoma with the highest probabilities east and south of the I-44 corridor.

Model guidance now in good agreement for today with our persisting upper low across western Texas into the western half of Oklahoma providing ample mid-level ascent for scattered rain showers. However, much of this could be seen on radar as virga evaporating into the drier boundary layer. However we could start seeing isolated convection breaking out by mid afternoon where heating may erode the cap south of I-40 where surface-based instability may be strongest. The only spoiler would be broken CU become dense enough limiting afternoon heating and instability? Although most of our forecast area will just see dense CU but latest CAMs guidance suggesting isolated storms developing east and south of the I-44 corridor by mid afternoon. With very weak shear not expecting any convection to organize or become severe but may be sufficient to produce small hail and strong wind gusts based on forecasted DCAPE values. Isolated storms could also produce heavy rainfall but would be very localized. Since storms will be diurnally-driven would expect them to be diminishing after sundown along with our dense CU field with decreasing cloudiness overnight. A gradual heating trend with hot muggy conditions but still below normal temperatures for this afternoon. NBM still slow heating up so trended slightly warmer for this afternoons MaxT using the CONSMOS.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The models are now consistent with the upper low exiting our area Sunday and retreating to western Texas before opening up Monday. As a result for Sunday our weak upper flow will start being influenced by strong ridging over much of the western half of the country just south of the main jet stream flow.

Heating trend continues with temperatures becoming normal to above normal Sunday into Monday as pressure heights in the ridge increase. Heat indices becoming triple digit widespread by Monday with some areas approaching advisory criteria although most likely at the start of the long term. Did go warmer than NBM for Sunday's MaxT using the CONSShort nudged 40% to correct it's cooler bias which becomes more representative for Mondays MaxT.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Center of the upper ridge settles south over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slip southward into northern Oklahoma by late in the day. A pre- frontal torch (or strong thermal ridge) will be in place along and ahead of this front with 850M temperatures of 30-33 degrees. This will likely be the hottest day of the week and the year so far across the area, with highs ranging from 100-105 degrees. And even with the area beginning to mix out some of the higher dewpoints, afternoon heat indices of 105-110 degrees are expected. Will likely need some heat headlines for Tuesday.

The front may take a few degrees off for Wednesday, but is expected to wash out or lift back north late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Still, most of Oklahoma and north Texas will see highs in the 100s, exception will be north central which will remain in the mid/upper 90s.

For the latter part of the week, the GFS has come more in line with the Euro in maintaining the upper ridge over Oklahoma and Texas. 500 heights will approach 600dm by Friday. So for both Thursday and Friday, highs will mostly be at or above 100 degrees with overnight lows barely dropping below 80 degrees. Multiple days with heat headlines are also possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Breezy south southwest winds this afternoon will diminish and become more southerly this evening. Isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly near and southeast of I-44, with potential for brief gusty downburst winds.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 94 75 98 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 71 94 73 98 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 95 74 98 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 70 95 72 99 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 74 93 76 98 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 76 95 77 98 / 10 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.