textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Continued hot today, then back closer to average late in the week.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week

- Marginal risk for strong to severe storms Wednesday night through Thursday night.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Strong pressure gradient across the state of Oklahoma this morning and early afternoon is allowing for southerly winds to be 15-25 mph sustained, with gusts to 45 mph. These winds will continue through at least sunset, before the winds begin to diminish slightly. The heat and humidity will be the primary factor for this afternoon, as heat index values have already pushed past 100 for a large area, and will continue to rise through the afternoon.

One of the reasons for the high heat index values today is a cold front (yup, you read that right, bear with me). A cold front is just barely beginning to push into far NW Oklahoma, with north winds in the panhandle, and west-northwest winds noted in the past hour in Harper County. However, ahead of the front, there are southwest surface and 700/850 mb winds creating a bit of a blowtorch affect, helping create a large area of warmer temperatures ahead of the front.

Storms will be possible along the front this evening, as there is plenty of available CAPE and deep layer shear. The area(s) affected are in question, as most of the CAMs keep thunderstorms in eastern Kansas. However, a low potential (15% or less) exists for thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

While today and even tonight is fairly well behaved in our area (the Midwest is a bit chaotic), tomorrow and Thursday night becomes much more complex. Today's cold front will begin to move south Thursday morning and evening. The front will move into the I-40 corridor around midday, and then continue to push its way southward through sunset. Cold front plus dew points in the 60s/70s usually combine in June to produce at least a few thunderstorms, and that should be the case as well Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase from north to south during the day, but any one spot should only see about a 30-50% chance at any given time.

Any thunderstorms which get going, however, could be on the strong to severe side. Machine learning models and forecast guidance suggests the possibility of supercells, especially along and just ahead of the front. Even along the front, it appears that the southwestern corner of Oklahoma and our north Texas Counties may have the highest potential for severe weather, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The odds are low, only about 1%, which at best is very low odds. However, any place where there will be backed winds aloft and southeast surface winds will have the highest potential for rotating storms.

The window for supercell thunderstorms is pretty narrow, only about one or perhaps two hours. Much more likely is a small MCS developing rapidly over SW Oklahoma or the eastern Texas panhandle during the evening and overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning. This would produce some severe weather risk in the form of gusty thunderstorm winds, along with the potential for localized heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Things will begin to calm down after a few lingering showers / thunderstorms early Friday, before temperatures rise to near 90 on Friday. Saturday,temperatures rise again to the upper 90s Saturday afternoon. Then, another front and associated disturbances will move through the area, bringing temperatures by back down into the upper 80s and daily storm chances between 50-70%. This sounds pretty good, but the devil is always in the details.

The extended ensembles are clustered into only 2...maybe 3 sets of clusters through day 5. Even so, the ensemble solutions are fairly confident in a ridge being in place over the lee slopes of the Rockies, giving us northwesterly flow aloft. 71% of the GEFS members suggest this pattern, with the remaining 29% showing either a weaker ridge, or a ridge that is farther east. Thus, this is giving some confidence in the early part of the extended, with an acknowledgment that a farther east ridge would push the highest rain chances into eastern Oklahoma and/or Arkansas. By days 6 and 7, there are 4 distinct clusters in the data, suggesting a lot less confidence in the forecast, with some solutions suggesting rain, and others suggesting a return of more heat. Climatology for late June, it would appear that the hotter solution is more favored, yet there is not enough confidence to begin to sway the forecast one way or another.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A cold front will move across at least portions of the area tonight into Thursday. Low chances for showers/storms tonight into northern OK with rain chances increasing Thursday. MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected this TAF period. Winds will also shift towards the NE behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 75 88 67 86 / 0 40 80 50 Hobart OK 75 93 66 88 / 0 20 80 30 Wichita Falls TX 76 99 70 89 / 0 10 80 60 Gage OK 72 84 62 87 / 0 20 50 30 Ponca City OK 72 79 65 84 / 30 60 60 20 Durant OK 76 94 76 88 / 0 10 70 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>025-027- 033>039-044-045.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ044-045-050.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ084>090.