textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday. Some of the storms may become strong.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the end of the week before triple digit heat returns over the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

There is a very low chance for an isolated shower or two to develop but most, if not all of the fa, is expected to remain dry overnight into early Wednesday. With light winds and low temp/dewpoint spreads expected, patchy fog development will be possible once again early Wednesday morning with the best chance in parts of north TX and southern OK although patchy fog could extend northward into parts of central OK. If this fog develops, it is expected to dissipate by mid- morning.

Models show a mid-lvl shortwave/disturbance moving east to west across the area Wednesday bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms to parts of the fa. The highest chances will be in eastern portions of the fa, generally along and east of I- 35, mostly during the afternoon hours. With MLCAPE expected to be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, some of the storms could become strong Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds and small hail. The showers and storms are expected to decrease Wednesday evening with the loss of heating.

The near to below average temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show the upper high continuing to shift into the Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday which will shift the upper flow to more southerly for the end of the work week. Models show a couple of mid-lvl disturbances moving south to north across the Southern Plains which will bring rain chances to parts of the fa both Thursday and Friday.

With southerly flow returning to the area, temperatures may be a degree or two warmer at the end of the week although cloud cover and rain is expected to still keep them near or just below average for mid July with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show the upper high building across the western U.S. possibly into the Southern Plains over the weekend into early next week with NW flow possibly setting up over the Northern/Central Plains next week. At the sfc, south to southwesterly winds are expected over the weekend. Models are now showing the potential for a frontal boundary to move into at least parts of the fa early to middle of next week.

With the upper ridge potentially influencing the area and south to southwesterly flow at the sfc, temperatures are expected to warm over the weekend into early next week with a return to above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and low 100s. However, temperatures may be knocked down a few degrees next week if the previously mentioned frontal boundary moves into the area.

A drier forecast is also expected over the weekend into early next week with the upper ridge providing less of an opportunity for storm development. One chance for some more rain may also be with the frontal boundary next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Some fog has developed at KADM at the base of the Arbuckle Mountains, but is so far confined there. Satellite does now show any significant areas of fog this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly across the eastern part of the forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 70 90 71 / 30 20 10 10 Hobart OK 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 92 69 91 70 / 10 10 30 20 Gage OK 91 67 92 68 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 89 71 90 73 / 30 10 10 0 Durant OK 90 72 90 73 / 30 20 20 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.