textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma on Wednesday and Thursday, and potentially through the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible in northwest Oklahoma Thursday afternoon with gusty winds.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

More of the same this afternoon as the subtropical ridge holds steady over the area for at least one more day. Surface troughing across the central Plains will induce a decent pressure gradient and bring breezy south-southwest winds back across much of the area. This will do two things:

A) Encourage widespread downslope warming, which combined with drying soils and the strength of the ridge will push air temperatures between 101 and 108.

B) Push us into the lower end of the wind/RH tiers for elevated fire weather in northwest Oklahoma once again, where RH should approach and in places drop below 20%.

Fire/heat recovery overnight will be slow as the prolonged heat wave takes its toll on the land-atmosphere feedback process. Low temperatures will get no cooler than the upper 70s area-wide, and a rather widespread bout of 80-83 lows is likely from the OKC metro northward.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

While we have had a lot of really hot days recently, Thursday could end up being one for the record books across much of the area. The immediate cause for this will be a weakening/southeastward shift of the upper-level ridge, which will allow the Colorado surface low to migrate eastward into Kansas and become quite strong for this time of year (nearly 1,000 mb). That will strengthen surface winds to as high as 25 mph sustained (with gusts in western Oklahoma in the 30- 35 mph range) during the afternoon. That will make tomorrow, in effect, a worse version of today. Our current forecast calls for air temperatures to reach 110 degrees in the vicinity of the Great Salt Plains and the Cimarron River bottoms, with widespread 103-108 degree highs elsewhere. The Heat Advisory that is in effect for today continues through tonight and right into tomorrow (and Friday, for that matter), but portions of it may need to be upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning if a more widespread area of 110+ degree air temperatures seems likely.

Simultaneously, those hotter air temperatures will correspond to a broader area of sub-20 RH across northwest and west central Oklahoma. Given that RH has generally been the driver of fire weather severity over the last week, there is quite a bit of sensitivity here and the difference between an RH of 15% vs 22% is a pretty big one. It wouldn't be surprising to see an area of near- critical fire weather where the strongest southwesterly "blowtorch" winds develop south of the low. Given the fuel state, this would potentially necessitate a Red Flag Warning for parts of western Oklahoma.

But wait, we're not done yet! While it will be extremely hot and pretty dry, the boundary layer will mix so much that 1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE develop. Since the ridge will be sliding southeastward and a weak disturbance looks to move northward across the high plains, that will likely encourage scattered, high-based thunderstorm development from the panhandles eastward into northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. It will probably come as little surprise that with such a well-mixed and hot environment, DCAPE values from 1,600 to 2,000 J/kg are expected. That means that any sufficiently strong thunderstorm will have the capability to produce wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, and perhaps as high as 80 mph. This area of storm potential overlaps with the area of fire weather concern and could play a factor in containing any fire starts, as well.

Friday won't be quite as hot as the ridge continues to weaken and shift southeastward. "Not quite as hot" in the context of this heat wave is still 10 or so degrees hotter than normal with widespread temperatures in the 101-106 range. We probably won't see a need for Extreme Heat Warnings, but the Heat Advisory does run continuously through 8 pm Friday for good reason. There's a slightly weaker signal for storms in northwest Oklahoma on Friday than Thursday, but it bears watching as we approach the CAM range.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Still no real evidence of any cooler or wetter weather in the long- range period. Troughing across the West Coast remains through the early part of next week, but with the ridge centered over the Gulf Coast we will likely remain on the periphery/just outside of any southwesterly flow aloft and rain chances. While heat similar to Thursday doesn't look likely to recur, air temperatures should still get up into the 100s across the entire area on most days. Fire weather will also likely be problematic at least one, if not all, of the days in the long term, and that pattern will continue until the moment we get a good soaking rain again.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR category will prevail across the region into Wednesday. Low- level wind shear concern is becoming more likely during the predawn hours on Wednesday across western into northern Oklahoma. The sky cover makeup during the day on Wednesday will feature more high clouds (and less diurnal/fair-weather cumulus) compared to the past few days.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 101 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 104 80 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 105 79 106 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 105 78 107 76 / 0 0 20 30 Ponca City OK 104 80 105 80 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.