textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday until sundown across portions of western Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and dry conditions.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday into evening.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on Tuesday.

- Frost and freeze possible by Thursday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Will continue to watch dryline tighten up this afternoon near Hwy 81 or just west of the I-35 corridor. To the west of the dryline areas of elevated to possibly near critical fire weather conditions will develop. With green up occurring across much of the state, main area of concern will be near the 100th meridian and far northwest Oklahoma. A Fire Danger Statement was issued earlier for this area as we should remain below criteria necessary for a Red Flag.

Otherwise, will watch the dryline for the potential for a few isolated storms to possibly develop along it this afternoon. There will be a mid-level shortwave and a good dryline circulation develop by late in the day. Unlike yesterday where many of the models had a strong cap in place, today the models erode much of the cap by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. In addition, winds that are veered currently begin to back late today, which will increase convergence along the dryline.

That said, a few high-based storms do appear possible with damaging wind gusts and hail the main hazards, along with the lightning. Best chance for storm development appears to be southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. This activity will then track eastward toward the I-35 corridor this evening.

Any storm activity should dissipate during the mid-evening hours. Our attention then turns to the approaching rather strong cold front. This front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma just before midnight and then be near the I-44 corridor around sunrise.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This front will then translate southeast during the day Tuesday. Latest indications are that the front may clear our area before convective initiation Tuesday afternoon, but still an outside chance for a storm or two before this occurs.

Behind the front, some models suggest a saturated boundary layer and some patchy drizzle will be possible. Much cooler temperatures will also accompany this front and some areas of central into southern Oklahoma and western north Texas are likely to see falling afternoon temperatures Tuesday.

By late in the day into Tuesday night a larger scale northern stream trough along with a piece of energy from the southwest closed low will move out of the Rockies into the Plains. This will bring a chance of showers to parts of northern Oklahoma. These rain chances will linger through the day Wednesday and Wednesday night. Unfortunately rainfall amounts are expected to remain light (<0.10).

As these waves move east through the Plains Wednesday it will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the area, keeping temperatures well below seasonal norms. As skies are expected to gradually clear overnight, temperatures will drop into the 30s across much of northern and western Oklahoma by early Thursday morning. A Frost and/or a Freeze Watch may be needed as we approach this time frame.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Synoptic uncertainty during the late week period remains high. In broad strokes, we're looking a mild Thursday followed by a warming trend into the weekend. Most models keep us dry Thursday through Saturday, but there are a few members that bring precipitation on Saturday (low chances).

Day

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

All of our terminals are most likely to remain in a VFR category at least through 08Z after which a few of them may degrade to an MVFR category due to lowering ceilings from post-frontal stratus increasing from over the Central High Plains. A dryline is currently stretched across western Oklahoma. There is a 30% probability for isolated convection developing along the dryline impacting all of our terminals ahead/east of the dryline through 04Z with PROB30s for TSRA in the forecast for those potentially impacted terminals. Otherwise a strong low-level jet will start strengthening out of the south by 03Z which could produce low-level wind shear over most of our terminals. The southerly low-level jet will be ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into northern Oklahoma by 08-09Z. Southerly surface winds will shift northerly behind the cold front between 08-18Z with the front/wind shift expected to reach terminal KDUA closer to 23Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 70 48 64 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 61 73 46 70 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 84 52 76 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 50 63 40 53 / 0 10 30 20 Ponca City OK 55 63 46 58 / 30 20 30 10 Durant OK 71 87 55 73 / 20 10 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.