textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms between today and Friday, mainly along and southeast of I-44.

- Warming up into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The primary driving force for weather across our area today and tonight will be an MCV-reinforced upper-level low that moves eastward out of the Texas Big Country. The forcing from this upper- level low will be pretty glancing across much of our area, so the best chance for rain will remain along and especially southeast of the I-44 corridor. Further limiting the intensity and amount of rain will be limited instability, with most models showing extensive cloud cover induced by the MCV and MLCAPE remaining at or below 1,000 J/kg. Still, small showers and thunderstorms will proliferate across western north Texas this morning, moving into southern Oklahoma from the afternoon through the evening.

Highs across most of the area today will remain near 80 due to the cloud cover, though there will likely be a gradient in northern/northwest Oklahoma where the sun comes out in the afternoon and temperatures rise into the upper 80s. It's worth noting that the RDPS (generally considered the best model for cloud cover) shows mostly clear skies across the northwestern 1/2 of our area today and highs getting to 87-90. However, IR satellite would suggest that it's already underselling cirrus depth, so the bulk of model guidance might be right here in depicting mostly cloudy skies.

The core of the upper low looks like it will swing into southern Oklahoma tonight with increasing rain chances in southern and central Oklahoma. The flood risk today and tonight doesn't look to be widespread due to the small size of storms and limited instability. However, storm motions will be very slow and the tropospheric water content will be very high, so efficient downpours are expected. Any place that sees multiple downpours will have the potential for urban and small stream flooding.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The MCV will lift northeastward out of our area tomorrow, to be replaced by a broad area of weak troughing on the Southern Plains. This pattern will continue to be conducive to the development of showers and thunderstorms. Most 0Z CAM guidance keeps the core of precip chances along the eastern fringe of our CWA - roughly along and east of I-35 - during the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. Overall precipitation chances will begin to decrease during the day on Friday as the zone of broader troughing begins to move to the east toward the Ozarks.

Lingering cloud debris, showers, and reduced EML-base heights within the core of the upper-level low will conspire to give us one more day of below-average temperatures on Thursday. Friday will begin at least a brief foray into some more typical early-summer conditions as 500 mb heights rise with the subtropical ridge building in from the west. Of course, with those height rises we will also see a return of weak northwest flow. This means storms developing on the high terrain Friday evening and trying to move into western parts of our area Friday night. NBM has precip chances at 20-30 percent Friday night, which seems reasonable.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

From Sunday through the early part of next week, model guidance is now in rather strong agreement that the subtropical ridge will amplify and migrate eastward toward New Mexico. We will remain on the near eastern periphery of it - far enough away from the core of the ridge that there will be occasional storm chances in northwest flow, but also close enough that daytime highs will climb back into the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s.

Although a few days ago it had appeared that this might be the beginning of the shift to semi-permanent summertime ridging, the last few model cycles have suggested that June might have a few more tricks up its sleeve. This isn't altogether a surprise; numerical guidance often falls into a trap of self-perpetuating land-surface feedbacks creating overly strong ridges this time of year. The question then isn't so much "if" but "when" we break the ridge down and see a potentially active weather pattern return. If the GFS were to be believed, this could be as early as Wednesday. The general consensus does point toward mid-to-late next week for more robust rain and storm chances to return.

Meister

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Expect to see precip move north out of Texas into the Red river valley and toward central Oklahoma this afternoon. As this occurs should see ceilings lower into MVFR cat from south to north through the day and into tonight. Light south to southeast winds will increase during the day day today with a few gusts approaching 20kts during the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 84 66 80 67 / 20 30 40 20 Hobart OK 84 64 85 67 / 20 20 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 82 67 83 70 / 60 50 30 20 Gage OK 85 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 88 66 82 66 / 0 10 30 20 Durant OK 81 68 80 70 / 80 80 80 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.