textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Remaining unseasonably hot through Tuesday, with cooler/more "fall-like" temperatures later in the week and weekend.

- An active weather pattern arrives on Tuesday and continues through at least Thursday. Potential for strong-severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding exists.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

The beginning of a stretch of impactful weather will kickoff Tuesday afternoon. Multiple hazards such as record heat, severe weather, and flooding will all be possible over the next few days.

Deep moisture advection is already spreading northward across the southern Plains tonight. Moisture advection will help get widespread upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints across the entire area by sunrise. In fact, this higher theta-e air will likely cause record warm low temperatures across all 3 climate sites this morning. Additionally, OKC is forecast to reach around 90F, which would be close to the record temperature of 90F set back in 1938.

The aforementioned moisture advection today will foster anomalously high precipitable water values. PWAT values of 1.5 inches (west) to over 2 inches (east) are expected by the afternoon. To put this into perspective, the daily maximum PWAT values for this time of year is about 1.66 inches, meaning that we are likely to see record-breaking PWAT values for this time of year.

A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest today, with height falls expected across our area by the afternoon. There will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening: a dryline across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and a weak frontal boundary that may move into northern Oklahoma. The environment downstream into our area will be characterized by strong deep-layer shear, owing to a belt 50-60 kts of southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the advancing trough, and sufficient instability. That being said, any storms that do move into our area this afternoon and evening, will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

As storms continue to move in after sunset, the low-level jet will ramp up, creating more low-level shear. Recent CAM guidance suggests that the bulk of storms will weaken into the overnight hours, but with a strengthening low-level jet, any ongoing stronger storms may pose a risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Continuous height falls ahead of the aforementioned mid-level trough, will foster a northeast-to-southwest corridor of thunderstorm development, with numerous rounds expected Wednesday morning into Thursday. Where that corridor sets up, areas along it may receive 3-5 inches of rainfall through Thursday. Current model data would suggest that this corridor will set up somewhere near western and northwestern Oklahoma, but given the progressive nature of this system, may see that corridor line up more closely with I-44. Nevertheless, flooding (potentially widespread flooding) will be possible Wednesday into Thursday, especially given the anomalously high PWAT values.

Additional lift attendant to the mid-level trough, will help to strengthen a surface low across the far western TX/OK Panhandle. The low-level mass response will help to transport higher theta-e air northward into central Oklahoma during Wednesday evening, despite the potential for ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Any storm that moves into this environment will have an increased potential to produce severe weather, especially damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Rain/thunderstorm chances will shift to the south through the day Thursday, as a stronger cold front moves across the area.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

The aforementioned cold front will bring a high confidence (60-80%) chance of temperatures remaining below 60F on Friday across areas from northwestern to central Oklahoma. Across southern and southeastern Oklahoma and western north Texas, there is a 20-30% chance of temperatures staying below 60F on Friday.

By Saturday, daytime temperatures will rebound slightly as the cold air advection weakens under clear skies. Mostly clear skies will help overnight lows Friday into Saturday morning to get down into the 40s across most locations, and into the upper 30s in northwestern Oklahoma. There is high confidence in dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend and into next week, with a steady warming trend into early next week. By Monday, highs will likely get back into the 70s across the entire area.

Bunker

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Patchy areas of low stratus - yielding MVFR category - continue to build across portions of central into southeastern Oklahoma as deep moisture transport continues. Impacted terminals should transition back to VFR conditions/ceilings by no later than ~14-16 UTC this morning.

Otherwise, a daytime period featuring a gusty southwest wind and scattered diurnal cumulus remains forecast across Oklahoma and western-north Texas.

Scattered thunderstorm development near the 100th meridian this evening is expected to progress slowly eastward into Wednesday morning, yielding low-medium potential for reduced vis and gusty- erratic winds.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 89 73 86 68 / 0 30 80 90 Hobart OK 93 71 85 65 / 10 50 90 100 Wichita Falls TX 93 74 93 69 / 10 20 60 80 Gage OK 93 66 72 58 / 20 50 80 90 Ponca City OK 93 70 76 64 / 0 50 100 100 Durant OK 89 75 92 69 / 10 10 30 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.