textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Showers and storms will redevelop late this afternoon and move southward through early tonight.

- Fire weather returns next week, with Tuesday-Thursday currently forecast to have the greatest fire risk.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

As the primary precipitation wave moves away from our area, the upper-level trough will move in from the west. Compared to guidance 24/48 hours ago, this trough looks much more open, south, and positively tilted - it's not a surprise to see rainfall totals thus far underperforming given all of that. Still, a well of upper 50s dewpoints exists across much of the area and broken sunshine is possible by the afternoon. Combine those with cooling temperatures aloft, and we will see isolated to scattered development of convective cells by late in the afternoon.

Storm coverage could be enhanced somewhat as a cold front develops and starts moving south during the mid-to-late evening. Overall, these storms will not bring wetting rain to everyone because they will be scattered in coverage and small in size. With that said, a few spots generally south of US-412 could end up with 0.50 or more inches of rain from this round of storms. The severe risk doesn't look extraordinary, but there will be enough instability for 0.50- 1.00 inch hail with the strongest cores. The risk for non- supercellular tornadoes (landspouts) is also present especially with initial storm development along the frontal boundary. However, with the cold air lagging a bit to the west, the storms may not mature until close to darkness, when surface-based instability will be on the wane.

The cold front will push through the area during the first part of the night tonight. Not expecting much in the way of a cooldown (there's no real fetch behind the northerly winds with a just- developed low), but dewpoints will at least drop back into the 40s.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A bit of a tug-of-war will occur for temperatures tomorrow between two competing processes. On the cooling side of things, north winds will continue during the day.On the warming side of things, rapid height rises will occur, encouraging compressional warming as the sun comes out in the afternoon. As usual this winter, you should lean toward the trend that keeps us much warmer than normal.

Of course, the "warmth" tomorrow will have nothing on what the rest of the week has in store for us. On Monday, longwave ridging settles in over the majority of the country with zonal flow across the Plains. This is a classic setup for High Plains cyclogenesis. The low-level thermal ridge should remain just to our west across the eastern Panhandles, but temperatures will still soar into the 70s with southerly winds. Can't rule out the potential for an uptrend in fire weather right along the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle border if downsloping is harder than models currently show (which is usually the case), but this looks more like a preconditioning day for the fire weather that lies ahead in the middle of the week.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fire weather conditions could impact our area every afternoon next week from Tuesday on, with Thursday being the most widespread across our area. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase Gulf-based moisture transport into the Southern Plains sharpening a dryline across western Texas. Expecting the dryline to make its initial punch into western Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a Pacific-based surface low will be tracking across the Central Plains producing a very tight pressure gradient across our area resulting in windy conditions Tuesday. Late morning mixing into a strong overnight low-level jet could produce some strong gusts up to 40 mph based on predicted 925 mb level flow. Gusty south winds Tuesday expected to shift "westerly" across western Oklahoma where the dryline may be punching through. As a result we could see increased fire danger and potential Red Flag conditions across parts of our western CWA to Wind Advisory conditions across our remaining CWA on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline is expected to be lingering across southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday and Thursday and eventually pushed out on Friday with a Pacific cold front passage. With the dryline lingering across our southeast mid-week, very dry air coming off the higher plains of New Mexico & Texas/OK Panhandles will settle across our area resulting in very low afternoon RH values maintaining fire weather conditions. Thursday may be windier with another Pacific-low tracking through which could increase the fire danger making it more widespread across our area. Temperatures will stay well above normal next week peaking on Tuesday, after which upper ridging starts breaking down and becoming just slightly cooler from north to south until a potential cold front passage at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A thin, broken line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southward along a cold front this evening. Most of this activity will be south of all TAF sites by 6Z (DUA). Strong, gusty winds, and perhaps small hail, will be associated with these storms. MVFR ceilings are expected behind the cold front but are expected to scattered between 12-18Z Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 48 66 43 73 / 60 0 0 0 Hobart OK 46 67 41 75 / 40 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 50 69 42 77 / 60 0 0 0 Gage OK 39 68 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 45 66 42 74 / 20 0 0 0 Durant OK 51 67 42 71 / 60 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.