textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Showers & thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Saturday with severe risks on both days

- Fog will be possible Friday morning mainly east of the I-35 corridor

- A warming trend will persist with above normal temperatures by Friday

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Yesterday's MCV mostly over southern Kansas will continue to spin northward into the Central Plains with scattered rain coming to an end across northern Oklahoma. Otherwise our synoptic blocking pattern aloft will persist with the upper lows over the Western U.S. and Canadian Province of Nova Scotia and the ridge pinched over the U.S. Upper Midwest. An open trough remains pinched between the western low and the ridge which is over the Southern & Central Plains where strong surface moisture remains in place. Expecting much of this mornings dense stratus to scatter this afternoon with some afternoon sun and diurnal heating. A warming trend will start with temperatures returning to seasonably normal (lower to mid 80s) for late May with less cloud cover although could see some fair weather CU develop by mid-afternoon heating re-scattering to breaking the skies late afternoon through sundown.

We will likely stay mostly dry this afternoon but will still maintain low convective POPs across parts of our CWA. Although expecting our boundary layer to become mixed and un-capped this afternoon for CU the instability may not be sufficient for storm development by heating alone. However a bullseye of moderate to stronger instability over northern Texas could initiate some mid- afternoon convection with a few of them straying north of the Red River into southern Oklahoma which is suggested by latest CAM runs. Although marginal but DCAPE values suggest some of these storms are capable of producing gusty winds near the Red River. As a result will have low storm POPs across southcentral Oklahoma ending this evening as well as eastcentral through northern Oklahoma with the exiting MCV and potential elevated storm from vorticity in the mid- level trough.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A "wet" forecast across parts of our area Friday & Saturday with surface boundaries and severe risks on both days. At least patchy fog will be possible Friday morning mainly east of I-35 where tonight's dew points will be highest under clear night skies with a very light southeast wind. Both HREF & Desi suggest radiational fog could develop around 4 AM then burning off by 9 AM with up to a 60% Grand Ensemble probability for under 2-miles visibilities in fog.

Our upper trough moves out and east replaced by ridging as pressure heights start increasing. As a result will see our warming trend persist with temperatures well above normal, especially across our southwest CWA who will see lower to mid 90s highs on Friday afternoon. A surface low develops lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies which should be lifting a warm front up from Texas into Oklahoma. Expecting stronger surface-based instability with moderate CAPE values and weak to no capping with a surface boundary in place may be sufficient to initiate up to severe convection in areas mainly west and north of the I-44 corridor. Large hail will be possible although the primary severe hazard so far will be damaging wind gusts.

The omega blocking pattern over the country starts shifting eastward on Friday night as the upper low over the Western U.S. opens to a trough and starts digging across the Southwestern U.S. with its axis across the Southern High Plains by Saturday afternoon. This will also advance a strong dryline across the TX/OK Panhandles to or near the western edge of our CWA. Severe convection will be possible along and east of the dryline on Saturday afternoon where the environment will be at least moderately unstable although weak sheared. For now severe hazards on Saturday will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Mid-level ridging will begin to dominate the Plains on Sunday, which will lead to our warmest day of the week. Highs will be in the 90s across the area, with temperatures near 100F across western north Texas. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible starting Monday and will continue through the week. Daily chances (albeit low) of precipitation are possible through the end of week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Stratus is undergoing a widespread transition to cumulus early this afternoon. Generally would expect marginal VFR conditions, but higher-end MVFR conditions with ceilings of 2,000-3,000 feet will be possible. A couple of showers are possible this afternoon especially in the southwestern part of the area, but not enough to warrant any PROB30s. The stratus deck will build back southwest into the northern I-35 corridor tonight with potential for some fog to extend south and west from there.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 64 88 70 / 20 10 10 20 Hobart OK 84 63 91 67 / 20 0 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 86 66 92 70 / 20 0 0 10 Gage OK 80 58 88 64 / 40 10 40 30 Ponca City OK 78 64 83 68 / 90 40 10 50 Durant OK 83 67 88 73 / 20 20 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.