textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, some with damaging wind gusts, are possible in northwest Oklahoma this afternoon into the evening.

- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through Sunday, with chances expanding over north-central Oklahoma on Sunday night.

- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme heat for northern Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Based on the 12Z RAOB analysis, the 596 dam ridge and associated surface high are centered just east of New Orleans this morning. A stationary boundary still extends across Kansas and is expected to remain in the vicinity through tonight and tomorrow. The weather highlights for today continue to be the extreme heat over northern Oklahoma (advisory elsewhere), the marginal risk of strong to severe downburst winds (far northwest Oklahoma), and elevated fire weather conditions.

While temperatures are not expected to be quite as high as yesterday, the heat indices will still rise to near 110 in the advisory area and to 113 in the warning area. Modestly breezy southerly winds continue, though again, not quite as high as yesterday. With minimum RH values dropping to near 20 percent this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

Storm chances this afternoon and evening across far northwest Oklahoma (ahead of the stationary boundary) are roughly 30 percent (Harper County) with some CAMS producing radar echoes in this area. The HRRR suggests a thin ribbon of moisture pooling across this area could lead to mixed- layer CAPE up to about 1200 J/kg, with higher DCAPE values (1500 J/kg). Explicit HRRR guidance indicates severe wind gusts remains west and north of our CWA with this activity. However, there is a chance outflow winds could move through this area.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The aforementioned ridge will retrograde towards our region while intensifying, and is prog'd to be centered near the Red River Valley by Sunday as a shortwave crosses the Rockies and pushes the frontal boundary into northwest Oklahoma Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. Until then, a Heat Advisory is in effect for northern, central, southern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas with heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees expected.

Looking at the most HREF guidance, FROPA over northwest Oklahoma (namely, Harper County) is as early as Saturday evening (6PM), with the most likely time range within a few hours of midnight, and as late as early Sunday morning (5AM). There is a chance of thunderstorms over far northwest Oklahoma from afternoon and overnight. However, models depict storms firing mainly across Kansas and the panhandles once again. Gusty outflow winds are possible across northwest Oklahoma with this activity.

The front is prog'd to move slowly southeastward and potentially pass the I-40 corridor Sunday evening. Low rain/storm chances return to northwest Oklahoma in the afternoon and overspread the northern half of Oklahoma by evening and into early Monday morning. Any storms will have the potential to produce strong, gusty winds.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper ridge axis gets shifted down into Texas this weekend into Monday with a weak upper wave progged to move from the central Plains into the mid- Mississippi Valley, which will likely keep the surface boundary in northern Oklahoma and moderate temperatures across the north on Monday. Beyond that, the differences in the patterns depicted by the medium-range models give more uncertainty as we get later into the week. The operational GFS shows a trough moving into the Plains on Wednesday night with the trough slowly moving through Thursday, while the 12Z ECMWF still shows us underneath the eastern limb of a large upper ridge. Will be watching the trends over the next few days to see if we will likely remain hot under the ridge or have an increasing chances of storms and more seasonal temperatures mid to late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a south or south-southwest wind prevailing. Low level wind shear is possible tonight at most sites with the low level jet. There is also a very low chance for a shower or storm this evening at KWWR, but chances were too low to include at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 78 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 103 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 77 103 72 98 / 10 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 79 104 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 78 102 79 104 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-010.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008- 011>013-018>020.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ005.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ009-014>016-021- 022-033>035.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ017-023>032-036>048- 050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.