textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 439 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Dry with near record to record-breaking temperatures through Saturday.

- Cold front arrives on Sunday with below-normal temperatures on Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Record-breaking heat is expected for our Christmas Day as temperatures early this morning are still the upper 50s and low 60s deg F across many locations. These 1 AM temperatures are 10 to 15 deg F above our normal high temperatures for Christmas. Some fog is possible this morning across northern Oklahoma, where there is weak moisture advection into lower temperatures. Grant and Kay counties are where fog is most likely to develop as temperatures have fallen to around 50 deg F in parts of these counties with mid 50s deg F dew points to the south.

An anomalously strong subtropical ridge (~590 dam) remains centered to our south as the primary influence on our weather. Westerly flow on the northern periphery of the ridge will allow downslope-warmed air off the higher terrain to the west to advect eastward into the Southern Plains.

As a result, low level temperatures just above the surface (e.g., 850 mb) are progged to be a couple degrees higher than yesterday. The Norman 00Z observed sounding from yesterday evening had a 850 mb temperature at 18 deg C. For this afternoon, the mean among the HREF (mean of convective-allowing models) and Grand Ensemble (mean of GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble members) has an 850 mb temperature progged at ~20 deg C at Norman. However, given expected high clouds today, we'll likely not experience the full impact of these higher low-level temperatures. Therefore, opted for temperatures ~1 to 4 deg F higher than yesterday as cloud cover will likely prevent us for reaching the higher end of guidance. Even so, record-breaking temperatures are likely.

Here are the record highs for Christmas Day: Oklahoma City...73 deg F (1922 and 2016) Wichita Falls...78 deg F (2016) Lawton..........76 deg F (2016 and 2021)

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

The anomalously warm weather will continue on Friday and Saturday with Oklahoma and north Texas continuing to be influenced by the subtropical ridge and downslope-warmed air masses.

A weak cold front/wind shift and slightly lower heights from deamplification of the ridge will result in a slight cool down (~5 deg F lower) across the northern half of Oklahoma for Friday afternoon. Even so, temperatures will still be well-above normal. Across the southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas, temperatures on Friday will be similar to today (mid 70s to mid 80s deg F).

The weak front will dissipate on Saturday with highs temperatures once again in the mid 70s to mid 80s deg F area wide.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

By Sunday, a significant pattern change is expected as a large- scale trough develops across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States--essentially weakening and suppressing the subtropical ridge.

The trough will advance a strong cold front southward during the day Sunday with appreciable cold air advection from gusty northerly winds. A non-diurnal temperature trend is likely behind the front Sunday afternoon with steady and/or falling temperatures due to the cold air advection. The gusty northerly winds and drier air mass behind the front may also result in elevated fire weather conditions. Ahead of the front, it'll likely warm into the 60s and 70s deg F (part of the reason is we'll start out quite warm Sunday morning in the 50s and 60s deg F). There will also be a low (20 to 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms developing along the front--generally southeast of I-44.

While the air mass behind the cold front will not be unusually cold for December standards, it'll definitely be noticeable given our recent record-breaking warmth. Wind chills by Monday morning are forecast to be in the teens and single digits. Below-normal temperatures are likely Monday afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 30s (north central Oklahoma) to the mid 40s deg F (western north Texas). These temperatures are ~40 deg F lower than what we'll see on Christmas Day (today).

Monday will be the coldest day with warming trend toward the middle part of next week as the mid/upper-level trough departs and southerly winds return across the area.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Reduced visibility possible through mid-morning at several TAF sites. The lowest visibility (1/2 mile or less) is expected at KLAW and KPNC. Visibility at other locations is expected to be 2 miles or more. Mid and high clouds will move across the area this TAF period. South to southwest winds are expect with winds increasing becoming gusty later this morning and continue into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 55 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 81 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 83 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 82 47 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 49 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 80 63 81 59 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ033>039- 044>046.

TX...None.