textproduct: Norman

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Another day of persistent weather. Hot, but not excessively so, especially with a decent amount of cloud cover moving over the area today. Winds will be a little lighter (generally, breezy northwest of I-44). Much like yesterday, southeast Oklahoma will be the most likely to see WBGT values reach into the high risk category, due to a combination of higher heat indices (around 105) and light winds.

Diurnal heating will give us a shot at a few scattered thunderstorms. The most likely area for these will be southeast Oklahoma due to the abundant moisture. A secondary will be southwest Oklahoma / north Texas under the mid level moisture plume. While organized convection is not expected (little to no deep layer shear), strong downburst winds will be a possibility with any storm that can get tall enough especially with the western storms.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s. These anomalously warm lows can especially affect those without access to air conditioning as they offer little opportunity for recovery from the daytime heat.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Friday and Saturday will continue the trend of hot and mostly dry weather (dotted with a few areas of low chance PoPs) for the holiday weekend.

Friday's heat will look very similar to Thursday's with the highest heat indices and WBGT's in southeast Oklahoma. Scattered clouds will provide some shade across the area, and northern and western Oklahoma will get the added bonus of a breeze. Also like Thursday, Friday will see a chance for scattered afternoon pop-up storms in southeast Oklahoma with potential for gusty downburst winds. This activity should diminish with the setting sun.

Saturday the heat nudges upward under mostly sunny skies as the ridge builds in and our mid level moisture plume shifts east. Several areas (especially north central OK, southeast OK, and along the Red River) will see heat indices reaching into the 105 to 110 range. Winds will also be lighter, resulting in higher WBGT's (forecasting a broad area of high risk with some localized extreme). Heat indices should start falling below 100 around 7-8pm.

Ridging looks like it will cut-off our southeast rain chances, but a front is set to approach northern Oklahoma toward evening as a shortwave moves through the upper flow. This will yield a 20-30% chance for scattered storms across northern Oklahoma Saturday evening (potentially starting around 6-8pm) and overnight.

Day

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Storm chances increase south of I-40 by daylight Sunday through the remainder of the morning. Models are inconsistent in handling the cold front with the ECMWF pushing it through on Monday as a backdoor front while the GFS solution washes it out on the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines with weak surface flow/winds through at least the first half of the week. Our upper air pattern starts becoming more chaotic with the upper ridge lifting the main jet stream flow further north into Canada then breaks down into numerous shortwave troughs. This will result in storm chances every day but would be rather isolated where some of our areas could see rain while others won't. Temperatures on Sunday will return to near normal meaning normal hot & muggy but no widespread excessive heating. However strong surface moisture across southeast Oklahoma will persist so heat indices may reach excessive in that area early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across Oklahoma and western- north Texas through the period, with a mix of (scattered) cloud heights and an occasionally gusty southerly breeze.

The most significant forecast change at this update was to add PROB30 mentions at KWWR & KCSM for this afternoon and evening, where scattered coverage of convection is now anticipated. Gusty and erratic winds would be possible if storms move near these terminals. Otherwise, still expect another disparate area of storm potential across southeast Oklahoma/KDUA through sunset.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 93 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 96 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 94 71 99 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 73 92 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 73 90 74 93 / 0 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.