textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon with a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and small hail.

- Increasing rain and storm chances into the weekend. Storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a potential for triple digit heat.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A shortwave is ejecting northward ahead of the upper low across Texas this morning and will approach Oklahoma this afternoon. Periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are and will continue to move north across portions of south central into southeast Oklahoma this morning and afternoon. Morning low clouds across southern into central Oklahoma are beginning to break this morning with temperatures expected to warm near to above normal today in the 80s to lower 90s.

Ample diurnal heating will allow for an uncapped environment this afternoon with enough buoyancy to support convective updraft development. Despite the approaching shortwave, flow aloft will remain weak and bulk shear will be very low. Similar to the past few days, storms that develop will have the potential to pulse up and down with a few isolated damaging winds and large hail at times. The corridor with the greatest chances for storms this afternoon and evening will be across western north Texas stretching into southwest Oklahoma and northeastward into north central Oklahoma. Most of these storms will be diurnally driven, but the increasing low-level jet could linger some of the showers and storms into late tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The upper low over northwest Mexico Friday will begin to lift northeastward towards the 100th meridian by Saturday morning. This will bring several rounds of showers and storms through the day Saturday into Sunday. The greatest chances for showers and storms Saturday morning will be across north Texas and into southern and central Oklahoma. A few of these morning storms could become strong to locally severe with damaging winds and large hail as the primary concern. Additional chances for showers and storms will increase northward across the area during the afternoon hours Saturday with storms being scattered in nature and may be focused towards lingering outflow boundaries from Friday night and Saturday morning's activity. An unstable environment with slight higher bulk shear (25-30 knots) than previous days will give way to strong to locally severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail.

By the afternoon hours, a surface low co-located with the upper low will approach western north Texas from the Southern High Plains. This surface low will bring yet another potential round of showers and storms across Oklahoma into early Saturday evening and overnight. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS into the late evening hours as they push eastward with the surface low. Increased surface vorticity around the low could increase the potential for low-level shear. Damaging winds will be the primary hazards into the late evening and overnight hours, but hail and a tornado or two may also be possible.

PWATs are expected to be anywhere from 1.5-2 inches across the area, which will lead to a heavy rainfall, high rainfall rates, with any storms that develop throughout the day. With the scattered nature of storm development, flooding will heavily depend on areas with nearly stationary storms on boundaries or areas that receive several rounds of storms. The area with the higher probabilities for greater than at least 1-2 inches of rainfall will be across central into southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

By Sunday, the precipitation chances will exit the area from west to east with the vacating upper low. Temperatures Saturday will be slightly cooler than previous days due to increased cloud cover and rain/storm chances, but highs will still likely warm into the 80s. Sunday, temperatures may warm back into the 90s across the west but remain slightly cooler in the east due to lingering precipitation and cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

After the upper low/trough move to the northeast late Sunday, upper ridging builds over the southern/central Plains and the upper flow retreats to the north. This shifts us back into a generally dry and warm pattern. The ECMWF produces some QPF Monday night in north central Oklahoma with the potential of storms moving in from Kansas, but otherwise the week looks dry. Temperatures will warm through the week as the ridge builds with triple digit highs returning to the west and the north central Oklahoma wheat belt.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Most of our terminals will remain in a MVFR category due to lowered ceilings from broken stratus through 01Z. Isolated convection already breaking out across southwest & southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas which could impact terminals KSPS, KCSM, KLAW, and KDUA through 20Z. By 23-01Z all terminals except for KWWR will have 30% probabilities for storms with those probabilities increasing to TEMPO groups in time through the remainder of the forecast period. Ceiling over some of our terminals may further lower to an IFR category after 08Z. Although terminals will be mainly dealing with lowering ceilings and storms, visibilities may also reduce briefly in heavy rain with any strong thunderstorm cells overhead. Surface winds will generally be out of the south through the period at 10 kts gusting 15-20 kts through 01Z, then down to 5-10 kts through the remainder of the forecast. Surface winds could be gusty and variable for some period as well due to storm outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 81 67 85 / 40 90 90 40 Hobart OK 68 83 64 91 / 50 80 80 20 Wichita Falls TX 68 85 66 90 / 70 80 80 40 Gage OK 68 84 63 91 / 10 50 40 10 Ponca City OK 72 82 67 84 / 10 60 90 70 Durant OK 72 82 71 86 / 60 90 80 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.