textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1103 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday across portions of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Light snow and flurries are possible Monday morning across northern Oklahoma. A light dusting of elevated surfaces may be possible, along with reduced visibility with any moderate snow bands.

- There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for rain showers to return to southeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

As temperatures rapidly warm due to downslope westerly surface flow, we're still expecting some elevated fire weather across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon (primarily RH driven). Winds will continue to be breezy (sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph) through the early afternoon before diminishing this evening. Wind direction will gradually shift from southwest / westerly to northerly through the day as the next front moves in.

Temperatures will fall into the 20s overnight, with increasing clouds.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Strong cold air advection will drop temperatures back into the 30s and 40s on Monday. As the surface high shifts south, a compressed pressure gradient will result in breezy winds across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Models continue to show a signal (20-30% chance) for snow flurries Monday morning across parts of northern Oklahoma. If any moderate snow bands develop, we could see some reductions in visibility during the morning commute. However, accumulations are expected to remain little to none.

Tuesday we flip back to southerly surface flow, allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s again. Breezy winds across western and northern Oklahoma are expected during the afternoon as clear skies allow for deeper mixing into the low level jet.

Another front late Tuesday night will cause winds to flop back to northerly. Developing clouds across southern Oklahoma and north Texas will result in a tight temperature gradient for the overnight lows with 20s in the northwest and upper 30s in the southeast.

Day

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front will begin to move through northwest Oklahoma early Wednesday morning with warm southwesterly flow pumping low-level moisture into north Texas and into southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front with dewpoints in the 40s. There is a pretty strong signal for isentropic showers Wednesday morning, but the highest chances remain south and east of the area with a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for measurable precipitation across southeast Oklahoma. Despite the front Wednesday, temperatures are expected to rebound through Friday with near or above normal temperatures. Beyond the end of the week, there becomes a lot of uncertainty in the pattern. Max temperature ranges for Saturday are from the mid 20s (coldest solution) to the upper 60s (warmest solution). Thus, given such temperature uncertainty there is little shock that some outlier models are bringing precipitation into the forecast area, while others remain dry as a bone. Ensembles will continue to be watched for signals of trends towards a solution.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A cold front is moving through northern Oklahoma tonight. Wind magnitudes behind the front are roughly 10-15 knots from the northeast. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR between 7,000 and 12,000 feet into the morning. Can't rule out snow into northwest Oklahoma in the late morning through early afternoon, but probabilities are trending downwards (10-20 percent except for far NW OK). Skies should clear toward sunset.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 55 25 36 21 / 0 0 10 0 Hobart OK 60 25 39 19 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 28 45 22 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 58 21 37 19 / 0 0 20 0 Ponca City OK 53 22 33 19 / 0 0 10 0 Durant OK 57 28 44 23 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.