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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday across portions of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Light snow and flurries are possible Monday morning across northern Oklahoma. A light dusting of elevated surfaces may be possible, along with reduced visibility with any moderate snow bands.

- There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for rain showers to return to southeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

With the surface high digging into the Southern Plains late tonight into the early morning hours Sunday, along with clear skies and radiational cooling, expect cold morning temperatures in the teens to lower 20s. With the passing surface high, winds are expected to remain relatively light (<10 mph), but even with a slight wind, conditions will feel pretty cold out there Sunday morning with "feels like" temperatures in the single digits across portions of the area.

A surface low over Nebraska Sunday morning will give way to troughing and southwesterly surface winds during the morning hours. However, the embedded shortwave aloft will push the surface low and subsequent trough southeastward. This will bring veering winds as a front passes through the forecast area around mid-to-late day. With winds veering to the north through peak heating hours, some downslope warming will help to bring back near or above normal highs in the 50s to lower 60s. With the dry air remaining in place ahead of the front and shallow mixing of 30 knot 850-mb winds may bring gusts of up to 20 to 25 mph at times, there will be some concern for elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours during the late morning to early afternoon hours, especially across portions of southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Low-level moisture will fill in with the front and increase RH values from north to south through the late afternoon and evening hours.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

In the wake of the front, cold air will filter southward overnight into Monday morning with widespread below freezing temperatures. With low-to-mid level cooling through the overnight hours and a weak embedded shortwave at 700-mb with saturation at the dendritic growth zone, there remains a low (20-30%) chance for light snow and/or flurries across northern Oklahoma. Some areas of snow may become moderate at times with reduced visibility, but overall the accumulations are expected to remain low with a dusting at most. However, this will be during the morning commute time for locals in the area and travel could become a bit difficult if more moderate snow bands develop.

Post-frontal temperatures Monday will be cold and well below normal in the 30s to mid 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy with breezy northeast winds, which could make it feel even colder. Tuesday will feature a return to southwesterly surface flow with lee troughing strengthening through the day. Winds may be breezy under an increasing 850-mb jet of 30 to 40 knots. Clear skies will allow for increased insolation with warm near normal highs in the 50s returning to the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front will begin to move through northwest Oklahoma early Wednesday morning with warm southwesterly flow pumping low-level moisture into north Texas and into southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front with dewpoints in the 40s. There is a pretty strong signal for isentropic showers Wednesday morning, but the highest chances remain south and east of the area with a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for measurable precipitation across southeast Oklahoma. Despite the front Wednesday, temperatures are expected to rebound through Friday with near or above normal temperatures. Beyond the end of the week, there becomes a lot of uncertainty in the pattern. Max temperature ranges for Saturday are from the mid 20s (coldest solution) to the upper 60s (warmest solution). Thus, given such temperature uncertainty there is little shock that some outlier models are bringing precipitation into the forecast area, while others remain dry as a bone. Ensembles will continue to be watched for signals of trends towards a solution.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions continue. Potential for some high cloud cover is showing up behind the first of two cold fronts that will push into the area, especially across northern OK tomorrow afternoon. That first cold front will take southwest winds and shift them to northerly, with wind magnitudes during the day of 10-15 knots gusting to 20. A second front will be moving into northern OK around 06Z tomorrow night and will shift winds further to northeasterly.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 40 16 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 43 16 61 24 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 46 19 61 28 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 36 9 58 21 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 34 10 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 44 18 57 27 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.