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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Showers/thunderstorms will continue today across much of the area. This activity will exit the area from the south to the north by the afternoon. A few storms may produce small hail and gusty winds.

- Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the weekend across portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

The bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to move northward as a shortwave trough lifts into the central Plains. Precipitation chances in general will decrease from southwest to northeast today. Mid-level ridging will overspread the southern Plains behind the departing trough. With increasing mid-level heights, temperatures today are expected be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday across the area. With the departing wave, cloud cover will decrease from west to east through the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A longwave mid-level trough will advance across the central Rockies Friday, which will promote southwesterly flow aloft over the southern Plains. A weak shortwave embedded within the broader southwesterly flow will help to increase precipitation chances across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability will foster a few strong to severe storms Friday afternoon, with a large hail and damaging wind gust threat with the strongest storms.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue Saturday, which may foster additional thunderstorms during the afternoon. Instability across the area will increase Saturday, so any storms that develop will have the potential to be strong to marginally severe. Again, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with the strongest storms.

Temperatures will increase Friday through the weekend across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Mid-level ridging will begin to dominate the Plains on Sunday, which will lead to our warmest day of the week. Highs will be in the 90s across the area, with temperatures near 100F across western north Texas. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible starting Monday and will continue through the week. Daily chances (albeit low) of precipitation are possible through the end of week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Showers and storms are continuing this morning with the greatest chances for storms to continue through the afternoon today across northern Oklahoma and into central Oklahoma. Any storms that develop may be capable of erratic and gusty winds and lightning. Low ceilings are expected to persist through the morning at several sites with anywhere from MVFR to IFR conditions. As the rain and storm chances decrease from southwest to northeast through tonight, clouds will also begin to clear and bring a return to VFR conditions to all but north central Oklahoma this afternoon. Low ceilings may creep back in overnight tonight and bring MVFR to IFR conditions across portions of northern into central Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 64 87 70 / 40 10 20 30 Hobart OK 84 63 90 67 / 20 10 10 40 Wichita Falls TX 86 66 91 70 / 10 0 10 20 Gage OK 80 60 87 65 / 40 10 30 30 Ponca City OK 78 64 84 68 / 90 40 20 50 Durant OK 83 67 87 72 / 20 30 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.


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