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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected this week with occasional elevated fire weather conditions.

- A stronger cold front may bring slightly below normal temperatures by early next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Warmer, above-normal temperatures return today as west to southwest winds return and a downslope-warmed air mass advects eastward as the surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the 60s deg F, which is ~15 deg F above normal for mid-January.

A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) was issued for western Oklahoma into western north Texas for this afternoon. The southwest/veered low-level flow will result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon by advecting drier air across western Oklahoma and north Texas. As a result of the dry air advection, relative humidity values will at least fall to 15 to 20% as temperatures rise into the mid 60s deg F. There is even the potential for relative humidity values to fall as low as 10% near the 100th meridian. The elevated fire weather conditions will combine with relatively dry fuels to a result in a total fire environment (fuels + weather) susceptible to initial attack wildfires. The main mitigating factor preventing a greater fire weather risk is the wind speeds will not be overly strong with southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph. Low relative humidity and fuels are the two main driving factors for the fire danger this afternoon.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday with even higher temperatures as the low-level thermal ridge strengthens ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures will be well into the 60s to around 70 deg F (3 to 5 deg higher than today).

At least transient, elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon with continued veered (westerly) low-level flow keeping a dry air mass in place. Similar to today, modest winds will be the primary mitigating factor for a greater fire weather risk.

By Tuesday night, a cold front/northerly wind shift will advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas as a trough amplifies and digs across Great Lakes region. Cloud cover will increase markedly behind the cold front across at least the northeast half of the area, but the chance of precipitation will be very low/near zero with the strongest synoptic-scale ascent to the northeast. The cold air will lag behind the initial wind shift, so no appreciable cold air is expected to arrive Tuesday night. As a matter of fact, with the increasing cloud cover, some locations could be quite mild for mid-January.

By Wednesday, cold air advection will increase markedly as winds veer to the north and become gusty. A northerly low-level jet (e.g., 30 to 40 knot 850 mb winds) may result in wind gusts to around 40 mph. With strengthening cold air advection, a non- diurnal temperature trend is possible in the afternoon with steady and/or falling temperatures. These gusty winds will also likely result in elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area. In contrast to today, the main mitigating factor for a greater fire weather risk on Wednesday is relative humidity. The relative humidity will not be overly low due to the cooler air (25 to 40%). Strong winds and fuels are the two main driving factors for the fire danger on Wednesday.

These winds will quickly decrease in speed by Wednesday night as the surface high moves into the Southern Plains, which will provide an excellent environment for radiational cooling (i.e., light winds, clear skies, and a dry air mass). Low temperatures will likely be in the teens and 20s deg F.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Winds are expected to quickly return to the south on Thursday as the surface high moves toward the southeast U.S. With west to southwest flow just above the surface, a downslope-warmed air mass will advect into western Oklahoma and north Texas by the afternoon. With this impinging warmer air mass, temperatures across the western half of the area will be higher on Thursday than on Wednesday. High temperatures near the 100th meridian will be in the 60s deg F. Across the east, high temperatures will be seasonable in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

For Friday into Saturday, another cold front will advance southward as a shortwave trough rotates around the periphery of a longwave trough centered across the Great Lakes region. Currently, it looks similar to the midweek front where coldest air will lag behind the initial wind shift before a secondary, reinforcing shot of cold air dives southward. Precipitation chances remain low.

While Saturday has the highest probability of below normal temperatures, the magnitude of the cold air will be highly dependent on the track of surface high behind the front with the Southern Plains on the southwest edge of the trough. Probabilistic guidance indicates a large spread with high temperatures anywhere from the upper 30s/low 40s deg F to the mid 50s/mid 60s deg F. Even if the colder scenario occurs, any cold air intrusion will likely be brief as downslope-warming off the higher terrain to our west will quickly erode any cold air as the surface high moves to the east (as we've seen throughout this winter).

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming period. A southwesterly surface wind will become occasionally gusty this afternoon across western into central Oklahoma. Bands of high clouds near the OK/KS border and Red River Valley will generally thin towards sunset on Monday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 63 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 64 30 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 34 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 29 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 62 32 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 63 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.