textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Record heat likely into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues, especially near and behind a front on Sunday. - No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Conditions this afternoon will have you wondering where spring has gone, with an early season heat wave beginning in earnest. Our area remains positioned just downstream of an anomalously strong upper ridge, with record-setting upper-level heights observed on morning balloon releases across the Desert Southwest. Closer to the surface, a rather nebulous pattern continues across Oklahoma and north Texas, with a weak surface trough extending from far southwestern into north-central Oklahoma this afternoon.

Mostly clear skies are allowing for efficient mixing into an anomalously warm low-level airmass, with widespread upper-80s to mid-90s expected over the coming hours. Warmest conditions are forecast near and just ahead of the aforementioned pressure trough across the western Red River Valley.

While overall wind speeds should remain light (<15 mph) this afternoon, precluding a more significant fire risk, the condition of fire fuels are only worsening such that hot temperatures/very low afternoon humidity will still promote elevated fire weather conditions through early this evening. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect until 7 PM for much of the area west of US-81.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Heat (likely record-setting in spots) and escalating fire weather concern look to remain the main weather story as we head towards the weekend.

Despite potential for increasing mid/high cloudiness into the afternoon, temperatures on Friday look to peak a few degrees warmer, especially north of I-40/east of I-35. While an ill-defined surface pattern will once again lead to generally light winds (though with changeable direction across a surface trough), localized elevated fire weather remains possible across the western one- third of the area on Friday afternoon.

The run of hot weather looks to crescendo on Saturday, as the once stagnant ridge begins to break down and move eastward. Mid to upper-90s high temperatures will likely match or break daily records for many sites across the region, and all-time March temperature records may be threatened across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Portions of the western Red River Valley may also flirt with triple digit readings into the afternoon, with a medium (40-60%) chance of occurrence. While usually reserved for our peak summer months, heat headlines cannot be ruled out at later updates for portions of western-north Texas and far southwestern Oklahoma given the anomalous nature (timing & intensity) of forecast temperatures to begin the weekend.

After days of low intensity fire risk, driven primarily by hot and very dry conditions, Saturday appears to feature more notable fire weather concern. This is primarily the result of a more pronounced and occasionally gusty southerly wind by Saturday afternoon, as a lee low takes shape to our north and west. Combined with continued <20% relative humidity and very hot temperatures, near-critical fire weather conditions are becoming more likely across portions of northwestern Oklahoma. This area is now covered with Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM to 8 PM on Saturday.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Guidance continues to point toward a strong frontal passage occurring during the day on Sunday. Uncertainty remains extremely high in the effect that this FROPA will have on high temperatures, though it is likely that the prefrontal torch will be among the hottest readings we see all spring. This front is also of particular concern because of the fire concerns behind it. Temperatures will be slow to drop in the immediate wake of the cold front and will remain much warmer- than-average through Sunday afternoon. Though RH will recover some in the postfrontal airmass, this will be counteracted by winds that will gust 30-40 mph from the north behind the front. This will lead to locally critical fire weather primarily west of I-35 Sunday afternoon.

Unfortunately, relief from the heat behind the cold front looks to be transient. We will drop to only 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Following this downright Arctic blast, a rapid return to dry return flow on Tuesday will bring warming temperatures and renewed wildfire concerns. Then it looks like the mid-to-late part of next week will be another brief but potentially intense heat wave before another, stronger cold front eventually scours through. If you're looking for rain, don't hold your breath - guidance continues to look bleak.

Meister

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Clear skies and light and variables winds will prevail through the TAF period.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 55 93 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 51 96 53 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 54 95 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 48 95 51 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 91 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 56 89 60 91 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022.

TX...None.