textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Temperatures rebound today above normal with dry conditions

- Chance of showers and severe thunderstorms on Saturday, especially across northern Oklahoma

- Dangerous heating returning across parts of our area on Saturday through Monday before rain chances return Tuesday

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures make a return today as our upper trough shifts eastward replaced by a trailing ridge. A deepening surface low lee of the Southern Rockies will increase southerly low- level flow and moisture transport increasing dew points across southeast into central Oklahoma making it feel muggy again. Triple digit temperatures will return up to the Red River in western north Texas with triple digit heat indices of 100 to near 105 degrees returning to southern Oklahoma. Southeast Oklahoma could see some afternoon CU with clear sunny skies across the rest of our forecast area. We may see some thin high clouds increase tonight coming down over the Central High Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Saturday will see a return of thunderstorm activity with a severe risk along with dangerous heat headlines returning across parts of our forecast area. As far as Saturdays potential storms, an embedded short-wave transversing through the upper jet flow over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region will be pushing a cold front across the Central Plains although model consensus is keeping the front north of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line before lifting and stalling out across northern Kansas. Moisture ascension ahead of the frontal boundary into destabilizing air may be sufficient to rain/storms especially storms into the afternoon hours as capping erodes. Will have 30% storm POPs across northern into east-central Oklahoma from sunrise into the afternoon with the OKC Metro on the far western edge with 20% POPs. Any organized severe storm risks from this system are expected to stay well north of our forecast area in the Central Plains & Midwest where the the strong shear will be. However DCAPE values suggest some of these afternoon storms could produce strong to severe damaging wind gusts as a Marginal risk for severe storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma. By Saturday evening the 20-30% storm POPs will shift north of I-40 into the overnight hours. Although potential afternoon storms across northcentral Oklahoma should keep temperatures there in double- digits, the rest of our area will likely see a more widespread return of triple digit highs between 100-106 degrees with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees up to 109 degrees across the southern half of our forecast area while slightly drier air across northwest Oklahoma should keep their heat indices more negligible. As a result will have a widespread Heat Advisory Saturday afternoon along and south of I-40 to the Red River including all of our western north Texas counties.

The upper high closes over our area on Sunday with increasing pressure heights as ridging builds. This will continue our weekend heatwave especially into northcentral Oklahoma with no storm activity expected. Will likely see another widespread Heat Advisory on Sunday and will likely extend further north of I-40 into portions of northern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The subtropical ridge will continue to move eastward toward the southeast United States for next week. The Southern Plains will be on the western periphery of the ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge remaining in place. As a result, above-normal temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 90s to mid 100s deg F. Probabilistic guidance indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday, which indicates high confidence of above-normal temperatures (e.g., the 10th percentile is above- normal).

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday afternoon with a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to south to southwest flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge), where there will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby frontal boundaries. Currently, the highest chance of this occurring is around midweek (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few MVFR conditions are ongoing across western portions of the area, but these should improve to VFR by 18Z. Light southerly to southeasterly winds are expected through tomorrow. There is a very low chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning across north central Oklahoma, but confidence in this activity impacting KPNC or KSWO is low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 98 74 99 / 0 20 10 0 Hobart OK 74 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 101 71 101 / 0 10 40 0 Ponca City OK 69 94 70 97 / 10 40 30 20 Durant OK 74 102 75 101 / 0 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ021>025- 027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.