textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Severe storms, with all hazards possible, are expected Friday afternoon and Friday night.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur over western Oklahoma and western north Texas today and Friday.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend with a freeze possible Sunday morning (western and northern Oklahoma).

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fire weather is the primary hazard of concern this afternoon across northwest, western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas as the dryline mixes eastward towards central Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity values of 8-20%, SSW winds of 15-20G35 mph, and temperatures near 90 degrees will lead to elevated to near critical fire danger. With recent rainfall, the area with greatest fire danger is covered with a Red Flag Warning through 9PM this evening.

A secondary weather concern is the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening over western north Texas. There is also a very low chance of isolated, sub-severe storms over southeastern Oklahoma. Overall, severe threat is mitigated by mid-level height rises associated with a passing shortwave ridge and weak low-level convergence.

Tonight, a strong upper trough reaches the north-central Rockies and subsequent height falls will lead to the development of a LLJ and deepening lee-side trough, which will result in breezy southerly winds. Scattered mid/high-level clouds and overnight lows in the 60's are expected. Weak isentropic lift could lead to stratus development early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The aforementioned upper trough exits the Rockies and the associated mid-level height falls overspread most of the plains as a southern stream trough reaches Baja California. In response, a 50-70kt H500 jet develops over the southern plains along with a 30 knot H850 speed max over the panhandles and western Oklahoma with surface winds out of the south at 15 to 25 mph with 40 mph gusts behind the dryline due to very deep mixing. Ahead of the dryline (and across most of the FA), broken cloud-cover is forecast in the morning with diminishing clouds across parts of western and west-central Oklahoma in the afternoon.

Fire Weather: Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected over northwest/western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Strong post-dryline gusts (mentioned above) could facilitate rapid fire spread with winds shifting north behind FROPA tomorrow afternoon. Also of concern (and discussed further below), is the potential for non-thundrstorm severe gusts tomorrow evening (out of the north) over parts of west/southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Elevated fire weather conditions continue on Saturday.

Severe Thunderstorms: By Friday afternoon, a cold front arrives in northwest Oklahoma and a surface low develops over the TX panhandle or western Oklahoma. By this time, an extremely unstable warm sector will reside over much of Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas with steep lapse rates of 8.5-9 C/km. Severe thunderstorms appear likely along the cold front over northern Oklahoma by mid-/late-afternoon before growing upscale while propagatingsouthward. Ahead of the dryline, isolated severe storm activity appears possible. However, 12Z CAMS show varied solutions with CI highly uncertain ahead of the dryline due to potential capping issues. All hazards are possible. The line of storms is forecast to exit our FA by early Saturday morning.

Potential High Winds: Strong and gusty north winds appear likely across western and southwestern Oklahoma tomorrow evening as a surface low is prog'd to reach western north Texas ahead of the cold front. With a strong post-frontal LLJ, gusts to 45 mph are likely (south of I-40) on the north and western periphery of the surface low. The RAP/HRRR do show the potential for isolated, non-thunderstorm severe gusts over parts of southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas into late evening.

On Saturday, dry conditions and much cooler temperatures are expected with morning low's in the upper 30's to upper 40's and daytime highs in the 60's. Breezy north winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. Freezing temperatures are possible for localized areas (northwest/west Oklahoma) on Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Global models and ensemble members are rather similar with a mid-level ridge axis extending roughly along the spine of the Rockies by Sunday. With northeast winds along the western Gulf Coast, dry return flow is expected Sunday afternoon with strengthening southerly winds across western Oklahoma and northern Texas. A low amplitude shortwave trough is expected move across portions of Texas/southern Oklahoma on Monday with height rises and ridging in the wake of this feature on Tuesday. This will result in low rain chances across mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas on Monday with mainly dry conditions on Tuesday. Near average temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday with a warming trend starting Tuesday.

A more humid airmass will return on Tuesday, as a western trough/low moves across the Intermountain West. A dryline will setup across the Panhandles by Wednesday afternoon, but the mid and upper flow will remain weak. A more active weather pattern will likely emerge Thursday into Friday of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Expecting the ceiling to break across terminal KDUA and returning to a VFR category by 20Z. Otherwise all remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 12Z. Surface winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10 gusting 15-20 kts through 00Z, then backing slightly out of the south around 10 kts by 01Z. A strong low-level jet will be increasing overnight out of the south by 06Z which could produce low-level wind shear conditions through 16Z across all of our terminals. Expecting stratus to begin increasing after 06Z producing a ceiling by 12Z reducing most of our terminals to an MVFR category at least through 16Z with TEMPOs in place should the ceilings further lower to an IFR category. By 16Z surface winds will have increased out of the south at 15 gusting 25-30 kts. As far as any storm activity, there could be some convection fire up toward early evening across northern TX so have a 30% probability for a -TSRA impacting only terminal KSPS between 01-03Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 67 78 44 64 / 10 40 70 0 Hobart OK 65 86 44 68 / 10 30 40 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 85 48 68 / 20 10 50 0 Gage OK 62 89 36 65 / 0 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 67 81 41 62 / 10 70 80 0 Durant OK 67 81 50 65 / 10 10 80 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021.

TX...None.