textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Mainly warm and dry weather throughout the upcoming week.

- Monitoring fire weather potential for Thursday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(This afternoon and tonight) Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A rather extensive stratus deck has developed across parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning. Although low clouds are not expected to reach northwestern Oklahoma, low clouds will continue to develop/increase across parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon. This will certainly limit heating across this area during peak afternoon sunshine (albeit low and limited in mid December). During the afternoon and evening, the low clouds should gradually diminish from west to east, but will be replaced by high clouds approaching from the west.

Modest moisture return is occurring today with the return of a southerly breeze. By early Tuesday morning, some patchy fog may develop across parts of western Oklahoma near the western edge of a weak moisture gradient. Not overly confident this will occur as high clouds may be thick enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling. By early Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s across northwestern Oklahoma to near 40 across western north Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A weak mid-level trough will move across Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the trough axis moves east of the area, most of the high clouds will dissipate or move east. A southerly wind will continue to transport better near-surface moisture into the area. This will help keep afternoon humidity relatively high despite warmer afternoon highs (most areas). With the increase in moisture and light winds Tuesday night, will need to watch for the potential of fog.

A southerly wind will increase all areas by Wednesday afternoon with high temperatures warming into the 60s (most areas). A modest cold front will begin to move across northwestern Oklahoma late Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A strong upper system (100+ kt jet core) looks to eject across the Central Plains through the day on Thursday. While the associated cold front is currently progged to sweep across the forecast area during the morning hours, strongest post-frontal cold air advection may remain delayed until later in the afternoon and evening. As such, temperatures (especially across southern fringes of the area) may continue to run near or just above normal prior to a cold (20s) overnight period.

With continued strong quasi-zonal flow across the Rockies, daytime conditions should rebound quickly by Friday, especially across western Oklahoma and western-north Texas (low to mid-60s). The latest NBM forecast for Saturday advertises mid-fall warmth, with temperatures near and above 80 degrees, across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western-north Texas ahead of another front.

While all passing system/fronts remain unlikely to bring us much of anything on the precipitation front, increasing fire weather concern is likely across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas from Thursday onward. Something to keep an eye on given our recent stretch of dry and often warm weather.

Ungar

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Patchy fog potential remains over parts of western Oklahoma, and potentially lowering visibility at KCSM, early Tuesday morning. While dense fog remains a possibility, uncertainty remains due to the presence of dense cirrus. Fog potential returns late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along an axis from KSPS to KOKC to KPNC. Otherwise, light southerly winds with occasional gusts will increase modestly after sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 35 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 53 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 40 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 60 28 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 45 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 50 35 58 43 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.