textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Rain chances continue parts of area into early Sunday.

- Cooler weather through the weekend.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The axis of an upper trough remains over the region this afternoon into tonight with a chance for showers and maybe a few storms across portions of the fa.

Moist airmass continues across portions of the fa despite the cold front already having moved through the area earlier this morning. Drier air is slowly filtering into the area so the moist airmass has been gradually shifting south throughout the day. This trend is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon as the drier air continues to move in. With the moist airmass and upper trough axis, scattered light showers and patchy drizzle have been ongoing throughout the morning into early afternoon with a gradual shift south due to the drier air filtering in. Scattered showers and maybe a few storms are expected to remain possible through the rest of the afternoon into tonight, especially across portions of southern OK and north TX.

Temperatures have been a bit tricky to forecast for this afternoon. The morning began with widespread overcast skies but the cloud cover has been gradually shifting southward so parts of northern OK have been gradually clearing over the last few hours. This trend is expected to continue this afternoon which will allow some heating and warming temperatures (highs low/mid 70s). The cloud cover in parts of southern OK and north TX has also become scattered/broken which has allowed for a faster warming of temperatures than previously forecast which will have an impact on high temperatures. Afternoon highs in this area are expected to range from the mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Meanwhile, where the cloudy conditions have held on temperatures have been slow to respond with many of these locations still in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s early this afternoon. Afternoon highs in these locations where the clouds stick around for most, if not all, of the day will see cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

Overnight lows tonight are expected to range from the low 50s in northern OK, where skies will be clearer and winds will be light, to the low/mid 60s along the Red River.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

SATURDAY: Models show scattered showers and maybe a few storms remaining possible Saturday into early Sunday across portions of southern and central OK and north TX. This activity is due to the axis of the upper trough remaining over the region and some moist advection into the fa. Overall, most of this activity will likely have little impact with relatively light additional rainfall amounts. However, there are starting to be a few indications of a potential corridor of some higher amounts (0.5"-1" with locally higher amounts possible) in parts of south central OK and western north TX Saturday morning. Considering this is the area that had already received 3-7 inches of rain Wednesday night/Thursday, any "heavier" rainfall amounts could be problematic. Not everyone in this area could see these higher amounts but any location that does, could see some minor flood impacts, especially in flood-prone areas. The confidence in this occurring is not high but definitely something to be aware of and keep an eye out for.

Temperatures are expected to be below average again Saturday but similar or a few degrees warmer than today for much of the fa with highs in the 70s. Lows Saturday night are expected to once again range from the low/mid 50s in northern OK to the low/mid 60s near the Red River.

SUNDAY: The upper trough axis is expected to shift SE/E Sunday as the upper ridge begins to spread eastward into the region which will bring an end to rain chances early Sunday with much of the day expected to remain dry across the fa. Clouds are also expected to be on the decrease with most of the area expected to see plenty of sunshine as well on Sunday.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. These temperatures are near or slightly above average for early October. With mostly clear skies and light winds Sunday night, overnight lows Sunday night are expected to be cooler for many with temperatures ranging from the low 50s in northern OK, mid/upper 50s central OK, and upper 50s/low 60s southern OK and western north TX. For some this could be the coolest night they have seen since May.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Above-normal temperature and dry conditions are expected for the week ahead as the westerlies retreat to the north with a return to southerly winds. The temperature spread among bias-corrected probabilistic guidance is minimal with even the 10th percentile indicating above-normal temperatures from mid week and beyond. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate the potential for an elongated mid-level ridge being the dominant influence on our weather. High temperatures by the end of next week could be back near 90 deg F, which is ~15 deg F above-normal. The good news is with the lower sun angle, shorter days, and lower dew points, overnight temperatures will be comfortable (in the 50s and 60s deg F) next week.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A widespread and persistent profile of stratus will promote IFR to MVFR cigs for most of the upcoming period. The exception will be across northern Oklahoma, where drier air continues to filter in and skies may tend to clear some (rising cig height) into this evening.

The potential for scattered rain showers will continue across southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas today and tonight, with slightly better coverage expected near and south of the Red River after sunrise on Saturday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 58 73 60 81 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 58 76 58 82 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 75 61 83 / 40 40 20 0 Gage OK 51 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 54 73 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 65 78 64 85 / 50 40 20 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.