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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 122 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Showers & thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and Saturday with severe risks on both days.

- Above normal temperatures becoming hot and muggy this weekend with afternoon temperatures in the 90s. Heat indices should be close to the actual temperatures.

- Rain/storm chances return next week Tuesday and every day through the remainder of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

There is a Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms capable of producing large & damaging wind gusts by late afternoon into the evening hours across much of our area, with the highest (Slight) risk in much of northern into portions of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Although a few storms could be ongoing overnight across northcentral Oklahoma the severe risk will lower after midnight.

A persistent omega blocking pattern aloft will start gradually shifting eastward across the country as the trough over the Southern High Plains will shifting as well with a ridge building in behind it over our area. A series of short-waves in this subtropical jet flow will slowly break down the ridge providing some forcing/ascent in the mid-levels over the Southern High Plains into our western CWA later today. Meanwhile in the lower-levels strong surface moisture remains in place with widespread 60s to lower 70s dewpoints (in southeast OK) and expecting capping to erode by late afternoon heating. Surface-based instability in the moderate to strong category with RAP & NAM suggesting a bullseye up to 4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE by late afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor. Expecting broken skies this afternoon but mostly mid to high based with much of the denser low stratus scattering out for ample surface heating but perhaps not maximum diurnal heating. The surface feature that may provide enough forcing to break the weak cap would be a warm front lifting across our area. Not a strong warm front but will see a veering of south winds with warm advection/upglide in the isentropes from the boundary layer to mid-levels. As a result can't rule out isolated severe storms breaking out across our area by late afternoon. Although the main dryline will be stretched lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies, a weaker/diffused dryline ahead will be stretched across the Southern High Plains under the mid- level short-waves where clusters of convection may also initiate eventually moving into our western CWA as well maintaining a severe risk into the evening hours. Temperaturewise, we will see above normal temperatures and hotter in parts of our western CWA with highs in the lower 90s.

A low-level jet flow will increase tonight strongest at the 850 mb level over the Panhandles into western Oklahoma maintaining storm organization after sundown across our western CWA to more isolated into central Oklahoma with a decreasing severe threat.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Severe convection initiating along a dryline will be possible on Saturday and dry with no POPs for Sunday.

The upper low from this blocking pattern lifts to the Colorado/Utah Rockies with a negatively tilted trough opening over the Central through Southern Plains with a surface low developing lee of the Colorado Rockies. This system will start advancing a sharp dryline across TX/OK Panhandles approaching our western CWA. Some model differences with the afternoon dryline punch to our western CWA line or into the first row of counties in our western CWA? Still a moist and moderately unstable environment east of the dryline for storm development should any initiate. Forecast sounding showing some capping across central Oklahoma to no capping further west toward the dryline. Probabilities for dryline convection on Saturday afternoon are in the 20-30% range in the risked area.

Hot will describe temperatures this weekend as the heating trend continues with widespread 90s across our area. Sunday may be the hottest of two days with all sun and maximum heating. Most of our area will heat into the mid to upper 90s and could peak to a triple digit high across our southwest CWA in a few places. Although not expecting any dryline convection Sunday, models suggest a more diffuse dryline across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas where it may be the hottest although slightly drier air keeping the heat indices more negligible. Overall hot, muggy, and dry Sunday across our area.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Models show the upper ridge continuing to build and affect the region through at least the middle of next week although it will be a bit of a dirty ridge with various weak disturbances meandering across portions of the southern Plains. This will maintain chances for showers/storms across at least portions of the area next week.

The hot temperatures will continue into Monday with highs once again in the 90s. After that, temperatures fall back into the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Showers and storms from this morning continue to dissipate and skies are breaking down to VFR. Expect mostly VFR conditions to remain over the next 24 hours once they become established. Exception is late this evening when a cluster of showers and storms are possible across much of the area, with heavy downpours and brief reductions in ceiling or visibility.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 92 71 95 / 20 10 20 0 Hobart OK 68 95 68 98 / 20 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 94 71 96 / 10 10 10 0 Gage OK 64 94 65 96 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 68 90 70 93 / 50 20 30 0 Durant OK 74 91 75 92 / 0 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.