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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
- Excessive heat is expected to persist through most of next week. Time outdoors should be limited with plenty of lengthy breaks and hydration.
NEAR TERM
(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Sunny and very hot conditions still expected today...
Hotter air temperatures are likely for most areas today as the center of the strong mid-level ridge advances over the western half of Oklahoma. A warmer H850 temperature is noted on the 12Z OUN sounding compared to yesterday, and would support an increase in air temperatures for today.
The degree of heat stress will be a fine balance between air temperatures, humidity (i.e., heat indices), and winds. Will heat indices be worse than yesterday (at least for most areas)? The answer is - likely no - given the fact that observed dewpoint temperatures are lower than yesterday. If dewpoint temperatures continue to be higher than forecast though (though this parameter remains the most difficult part of today's forecast), then it is likely that portions of northern and possibly into central Oklahoma will have heat index values at or above 110 degrees this afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for parts of northern into central Oklahoma until 9 PM.
Another balmy night is forecast with low temperatures near 80 deg for portions of the area.
Thompson
SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Heat remains the main concern as the strong ridge gradually retrogrades towards the four corners region, with southerly winds and mostly sunny skies expected. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area on Monday due to air temperatures and heat index values up to 110 deg. Will have to monitor the need for an Extreme Heat Warning, particularly over northwest into north- central Oklahoma as temperatures soar to near 110. The greatest heat will be concentrated over northwest into north-central and across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas, where temperatures of 105 to 110 deg will be common. Elsewhere, highs of 100 to 105 deg are expected with heat index values to 110 deg possible.
Although slightly lower temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, we expect another Heat Advisory will be needed. By then, dewpoint temperatures decrease into the 50's out west and heat index values up to 110 are forecast for north-central, east-central, southern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas.
Greatest chance of nearing record warm low temperatures appears to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Thompson
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
The upper ridge will continue to expand westward through the latter half of the upcoming week with the heat dome continuing to provide widespread triple digit heat. Several shortwaves will pass to the north of the ridge and being on the eastern periphery, northwesterly flow in combination with the shortwaves may bring chances for precipitation to portions of northern Oklahoma. By Friday, the upper ridge will continue to retrograde westward into the Desert Southwest with a stronger shortwave diving southward across the Central Plains bringing a front through the forecast area Friday. Sadly this front will only bring little relief to the temperatures with triple digit heat still possible.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all sites. Southerly winds will be gusty this afternoon, before relaxing after sunset. Winds will veer to the southwest tomorrow, and are expected to become gusty late in the morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 77 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 106 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 79 104 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 78 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>008- 010>013-017>020-024>026-029.
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004>048- 050>052.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ009-014>016- 021>023-027-028-030>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>086-088>090.
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