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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least the middle of next week.

- Thunderstorm chances today into Friday, mainly for northern/western OK.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mid-level ridge is centered over west Texas and a progressive shortwave crossing Kansas has provided for a few showers over Kay County this morning. A pseudo-warm front (nearly stationary) is noted on mesoanalysis over northern Oklahoma and a dryline west of our FA. Another hot day is expected with high temperatures mostly reaching the mid-90's to low 100's. Moisture return has begun with southeasterly winds over west-central to southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, which will yield heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees over portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 8 PM.

Dynamic lift ahead of another shortwave may provide sufficient lift to overcome CIN ahead of the dryline and may yield widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over northwest/western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few strong to severe storms are possible with mainly gusty winds and small hail.

Storm chances expand over northern Oklahoma tonight to account for shower/storms moving in from western Kansas and low-level WAA ahead of the aforementioned wave. This activity is not anticipated to be severe.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are possible over the northern half of Oklahoma on Friday morning. Activity could linger over east-central portions of the area through early afternoon. While

Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to be higher tomorrow compared to today, and while air temperatures will be roughly the same as today, it will feel hotter. Widespread heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are expected across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday. There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms over northwest Oklahoma on Friday afternoon with mainly gusty winds as the main hazard. Low chances shift towards the I-44 corridor on Friday night.

Hot and humid conditions continue on Saturday with widespread heat index values up to 110 degrees possible.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Ridging is forecast to expand over the southern Plains Sunday into the middle of next week, keeping hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Highs are forecast to be generally in the lower to mid 100s across the area with heat indices 105+ each day through at least the middle of next week.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The storms in southwest Kansas are expected to decrease and stay north of KWWR this evening, but there is the potential of them building down toward KPNC on Friday morning. The storms south of KCDS will stay well west of KSPS and southwest of KLAW and they will dissipate this evening. Some stratus with MVFR ceilings will be possible Friday morning, with the highest chances being the eastern sites (KDUA, KSWO and KPNC), and will be possible elsewhere although not with a high enough probability to include in the TAFs at the other sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 76 96 78 98 / 0 10 20 10 Hobart OK 76 100 77 100 / 10 0 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 76 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 101 75 102 / 20 20 20 0 Ponca City OK 75 94 78 99 / 10 40 30 0 Durant OK 77 95 79 98 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009- 010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048- 050>052.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085- 087-088.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089.


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