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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Rain/storm chances through Friday. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible. - Warming trend expected over the weekend with triple digit heat by early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper ridge continues to translate south over the gulf and southeast today with a closed upper low over southwest Texas. We will see a couple of minor waves translate northward across the state during the day today. This will result in another mainly day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are somewhat divided on location of the activity, but along and near the I-44 corridor may see a bit more precip than other locations as upper low translates northward that corridor will reside in an area of upper diffluence.

Otherwise, south winds will pick up in speed some today with surface high settling over the gulf and pressure falls occurring across the High Plains, strengthening the surface pressure gradient through the Plains. Much like yesterday the expected cloud cover and possible showers/storms will again keep daytime temperatures in check with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Expect to see a majority of the precip dissipate around or just before sunset with much of the night being dry. However, another upper wave will move northward overnight and a few showers and possibly a storm or two may develop toward sunrise across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper high as well as the surface high remain over the northwest gulf as we go into the weekend, meanwhile closed low to our southwest opens up and weakens. However, one last weak upper wave will translate northward across west Texas and western part of Oklahoma. This may lead to an isolated shower or storm during the day, but most locations will remain dry Saturday with a breezy south to southwest winds. Also anticipate Saturday to be the beginning of a warming trend that will continue into next week. Highs Saturday afternoon will be back close to normal for mid July in the low to middle 90s.

Upper ridge becomes reestablished over the central Rockies out into the central and southern Plains by Sunday. This along with veered low level flow will bring warmer air out into the Plains from the west and southwest which will begin to impact temperatures. Although Sunday temperatures will resemble Saturdays before a more noticeable rise early next week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

By late Monday, upper ridge continues to build south through the Plains with veered low level flow expanding the low level thermal ridge across much of the central and southern Plains. So, by Monday afternoon temperatures will rise into the upper 90s and low 100s. By this time we expect to see some mixing out of the low level moisture, but still some locations across north central and southeast Oklahoma may approach heat advisory criteria.

Tuesday, the center of the upper ridge settles directly overhead with lighter winds as a cold front approaches the northern border by late in the day. Ahead of the front low level thermal ridge (pre- frontal torch) is located across Oklahoma. This will result in likely one of the hottest day of the year so far, with highs ranging from near 100 to 105 Tuesday afternoon. There will also be sufficient moisture still in place for afternoon heat indices to be in the 100-110 degrees range.

The weak front will make its way into at least northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should allow slightly cooler temperatures across the north. However, central and southern Oklahoma into north Texas will once again climb above the century mark Wednesday afternoon.

As go into the latter part of the week, models diverge with regards to the placement of the upper high, which could be impactful. While the European keeps the ridge firmly established across the area with hot and dry conditions continuing. The GFS shifts the high further west, putting the area on the edge of northwest flow and brings in slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances back into play.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to expand across western north TX into southern and central OK along with an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Activity is expected to be most widespread this morning before becoming more isolated this afternoon with ceiling also improving over time. South winds will continue through the day into tonight, becoming gustier for a time late morning into late afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 88 72 92 73 / 40 20 10 0 Hobart OK 89 70 93 71 / 40 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 90 71 93 72 / 70 10 10 0 Gage OK 91 69 95 71 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 89 73 93 75 / 20 10 10 20 Durant OK 92 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.