textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Elevated to critical fire danger risk across parts of our area today. Red Flag Warning in effect across northern and northwestern Oklahoma until 6 PM.

- Elevated to near critical fire danger risk across parts of our area Friday into Saturday.

- Warming trend peaks on Saturday with above-average temperatures on every day through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Gusty to potentially strong northerly winds will continue to overspread much of the area today in the wake of a cold front that moved through this morning. These winds will continuously advect drier air from the lee side of the Rockies (Chinook winds) this morning into the afternoon. RHs as low as single digits are possible out west, and into the teens elsewhere are expected by the afternoon. The aforementioned drier air, coupled with gusty winds and dry fuels, will foster critical fire weather conditions late this morning through sunset. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of northern and northwestern Oklahoma through 6 pm for this threat.

Winds will begin to relax as we approach sunset, and will gradually shift to the south overnight into Friday morning. RH recovery overnight is poor out west, with most locations only getting RHs up to the upper 30s to low 40s.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Winds will shift completely to the south by Friday morning. A dry return flow pattern is favored Friday morning into the afternoon, so RHs will again be in the upper teens to low 20s across much of the area. Lee troughing along the Rockies will foster a tighter surface pressure gradient, and thus, winds of 20-25 mph across much of the area. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns will be favored across at least the western half of the area Friday afternoon.

Another frontal passage is expected Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s expected for locations post frontal, and into the 70s/low 80s for those of us ahead of the front. There are some elevated fire weather concerns across western north Texas and adjacent western Oklahoma Saturday afternoon.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Upper zonal flow persist through Monday with a warm ridge building on Tuesday. Although a cooler air mass in place on Sunday temperatures will stay remain warmer than normal going into late December. Gusty south winds return Monday bringing in a warmer air mass bringing the start of a new warming trend into next week with temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer than the climatically 30-year average. The building upper ridge over Southern Plains continue to trend a warm, breezy, and dry Christmas Eve leading into Christmas Day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A cold front has produced a wind shift at all TAF sites this morning. Wind gusts over 35-40 knots are possible behind the front especially across portions of northern and western Oklahoma. By 23Z, the wind will diminish and will become light and variable by 5-6Z. Surface high pressure will build quickly to the south and east on Friday which will result in a quick return of a south wind. As mixing occurs Friday morning, wind gusts will exceed 30 knot (~15Z Friday) across west central and northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 27 57 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 28 62 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 30 65 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 25 64 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 26 57 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 33 60 46 73 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>013-015.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>012- 014>016.

TX...None.