textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected through Tuesday.

- Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms for portions of the area from Tuesday through Saturday with some risk of strong to severe storms.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Breezy southerly winds have resulted in modest moisture recovery across Oklahoma and north Texas with 24-hour dewpoint temperatures changes +10 to 25 deg F. The higher relative humidity will temper the overall fire risk to elevated this afternoon even with breezy southerly winds. A weak northwest wind shift has brought in drier air across far northwest Oklahoma, where relative humidity values are below 20%. This area has the highest chance of locally near- critical fire weather conditions. However, winds are lighter here due to the weak wind shift and associated trough axis.

Winds will stay breezy tonight, which will result in a warm night. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Hotter weather is expected Monday afternoon with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge (e.g., 850 mb temperatures are progged to be >22 deg C near the 100th meridian). High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s (southeast Oklahoma) to mid 90s (western Oklahoma into western north Texas). Across western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, these hot temperatures will allow relative humidity values to fall to 10% 25% (with the lowest values across northwest Oklahoma. The low humidity will combine with southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph to result in near-critical fire weather conditions. Vertical mixing into into 25 to 40 knot 925 to 850 mb flow will result in wind gusts to 45 mph. In addition, fuels will be highly volatile/susceptible to wildfire spread with the ongoing drought with ERC percentiles near the 90th percentile. This will result in total fire environment (fuels + weather) up to 70 (out of 10) tomorrow afternoon. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for western Oklahoma into portions of western north Texas.

By Tuesday, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma as a shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the primary hazard with the most intense thunderstorms given ~30 to 40 deg F temperature-dewpoint spreads. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to eventually stall before lifting back to the north as another shortwave trough approaches from the southwest.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The active pattern will continue for the rest of the week into the weekend with off and on shower and thunderstorm chances. The shower and thunderstorms will bring some much needed rain although not likely to be a drought buster. But, at least enough to alleviate the fire weather concerns for a few days in some areas. More spring- like temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week into the weekend with around to about 10 degrees above average temperatures expected during this period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions this TAF period. Some high clouds will stream across the area. There is a chance for MVFR ceilings late tonight/early Monday mainly at KDUA but chance is currently too low for mention in TAF. Winds will decrease but remain breezy this evening and gradually back to the S and SE. Gusty SW to S winds are expected again Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 20 Hobart OK 58 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 56 92 61 86 / 0 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 59 88 65 86 / 0 0 10 30 Durant OK 60 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ083>085.