textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week.

- Strong to severe storms are possible late Sunday into Monday morning across north central Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard.

- Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Upper ridge will build ever so slightly further east today and with expanding low level thermal ridge, much of the area will climb well above 100 degrees today. Southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas will be near record heat at 110-115 degrees. This will require an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for those areas eastward along the Red River.

Although lighter winds will be a limiting factor, the very hot conditions along with afternoon RH values below 20% and very dry vegetation will result in elevated fire weather conditions across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas for today.

Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains into the Ozarks region today. Although anticipate much of the associated precip to remain to our north and east, some may skirt far north central Oklahoma late this afternoon. This along with the associated cloud cover may keep north central Oklahoma from reaching 100 degrees this afternoon. An extension of the shortwave along with some low level convergence along a residual boundary across northwest Oklahoma may allow for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm there as well.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Afternoon High Plains convection will make a run at northwest Oklahoma this evening, most of that is expected to dissipate as we go through the evening, although developing low level jet may keep activity going a little further east than many of models indicate. Some of the latest HRRR runs suggest this.

As we go through the night llj veers to the west and a rather deep layer of warm advection develops, once again across mainly eastern half of Oklahoma. May see activity again develop near of just east of I-35 corridor and then shift east into eastern Oklahoma Monday morning.

Models are still showing a shortwave trough coming out of the High Plains on Monday with an associated surface low developing in the eastern Texas panhandle or western Oklahoma. This low will then track east across Oklahoma near of just north of the I-40 corridor along with a weak surface surface boundary. Veered low level flow along and south of the boundary will set up a "pre-frontal torch" type scenario with record heat across the south on Monday. Temperatures may approach 115 degrees in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas.

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will likely develop in these areas as well. Much like Sunday, a limiting factor will be the wind speeds which are not overly strong, but still some 10-20 mph sustained with gusts 20-25 mph will be problematic. At least a Fire Danger Statement will be needed and a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning may need to be considered.

As the upper ridge retrogrades ever so slightly we see a couple of shortwaves drop southeast out of High Plains late Tuesday and Tuesday night. These should provide better precip chances to portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma during this time frame.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue.

With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into early Monday morning across northern Oklahoma. Any stronger thunderstorm may have reduced visibilities. Otherwise, southeast winds will be expected across most of the area. A frontal boundary will begin to move into northern Oklahoma towards the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 103 77 105 75 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 109 80 109 76 / 0 20 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 109 82 111 80 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 105 73 102 70 / 10 30 0 10 Ponca City OK 95 71 97 72 / 10 30 10 0 Durant OK 106 79 108 80 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012-014>020-023>032-040>042.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022-033>039-043>048-050>052.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.