textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Warming trend continues today which could break some daily temperature records through Saturday when this trend peaks.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through next week.

- The fire danger risk increases on Monday afternoon across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas.

- Precipitation chances return by mid next week with heavy rainfall possible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Our warming trend continues with southerly winds over upper ridging. Temperatures will stay well above average as much of our area could see temperature records break or tie later this afternoon. Adjusted this afternoons Tmax slightly warmer than NBM using the CONSMOS guidance. A southwesterly low-level jet increases tonight over southcentral through southeast Oklahoma which may keep that area breezy tonight and perhaps gusty by late Saturday morning after mixing. The NBM default was a bit weak with the winds tonight under the LLJ so increased them using the NBM 90th percentile winds.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Our warming trend peaks on Saturday prior to a cold front passage. Although northern Oklahoma may cool down a few degrees (70s) during the afternoon with the rest of our area staying warm in the mid to upper 80s potentially tying or breaking temperatures records again or coming close to it. The only spoilers would be if the the cold front pushes through faster/earlier than anticipated or if morning cloud cover persists into the afternoon. Latest HREF ensembles expecting some scattered to broken Cirrus lingering north of I-40 during the afternoon although may be thin and scattered enough over the Oklahoma City Metro. HREF and other deterministic guidance also expecting the cold front to be pushing through northern Oklahoma by early Saturday afternoon. Although the main system pushing our cold front through is way up in the U.S. Great Lakes Region, not expecting to feel any strong cooling behind this front in our area as we'll be tapping into a more temperate Pacific Northwest-based air mass as well as under a ridge. As a result we will feel a temperature change from warm to mild behind Saturdays cold front with temperatures still persisting warmer than average through Sunday. Climatically our average daily highs would be in the lower to mid 60s. Pressure heights decrease a bit on Sunday under a weakening upper ridge with north-northeasterly winds as a surface high settles across the U.S. Midwest Region. Much of our area will warm into the 70s on Sunday to lower 80s across our southeast.

There will only be a low-end Elevated fire danger risk on Saturday afternoon across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas as some fire weather conditions will be met. A dryline punch is expected into our western CWA just prior to the aforementioned frontal passage which could produce some very low RH values in the afternoon in an area where fuel loading may be high. However, windspeeds not very strong on both sides of the frontal boundary with mainly just a windshift in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A weak northeast to east wind is expected Sunday with temperatures still warming into the 70s and lower 80s. A shortwave trough will move across the central Plains late Sunday night into Monday as surface low pressure tracks across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This will bring a return of near-record temperatures and veered southwesterly surface winds.

An elevated fire environment is certainly possible across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas where deeper mixing and stronger winds are anticipated. By mid afternoon Monday, a cold front will begin to enter parts of northern Oklahoma. Although stronger than the cold front Saturday, temperatures will only cool into the 60s and 70s by Tuesday afternoon

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase as a trough/upper low approaches from the west/southwest. At this time, the exact track of the trough is uncertain as well as surface features. However, with only weak fronts moving across the southern Plains in advance of this system, ample surface moisture will either be across or just south of the area. Although precipitation is needed, locally heavy rainfall and flooding may become a concern by Wednesday/Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR ceilings this TAF period except at KDUA where ceilings are currently MVFR. However, these ceilings are expected to improve this afternoon. S to SW winds are expected into Saturday although winds will begin to shift towards the N Saturday morning at KWWR as a front begins to move into the area. LLWS is expected at KDUA and KSPS tonight into early Saturday as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 57 83 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 49 86 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 57 87 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 46 78 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 49 76 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 62 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.