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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma.
- Less hot weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of a cold front.
NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Area of showers and storms across the west and southwest parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas will continue to weaken and gradually dissipate overnight as it moves eastward.
A weak front across southern Oklahoma into western north Texas should continue to move slowly southward today. Meanwhile, a shortwave located over the panhandles will also traverse across the area during the day today. Although it appears that much of the expected afternoon redevelopment will be to our south and east. Will maintain a mention across southern parts of Oklahoma into north Texas for any potential that we may have left. Given the environment there will be a chance for a strong to potentially severe storm, especially closer to the front in southeast Oklahoma.
Otherwise, in the wake of the front, a somewhat cooler airmass will filter in with highs across northern, central and into parts of southern Oklahoma in the 90s. Triple digit heat will be confined to the Red River Valley and points south. Although there will be some heat indices near the 105 threshold this afternoon, with the uncertainty with regards to lingering cloud cover and that it looks to only get to these levels for an hour or two, will hold off on any advisory at this time.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Another shortwave will rotate around the periphery of the high Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring additional rain chances to western Oklahoma and western north Texas. With the additional cloud cover and continuation of slightly cooler air filtering into the Southern Plains another "cooler" day is expected Thursday with most locations in the 90s for highs.
By late Thursday and Friday the upper ridge begins to build back eastward restricting any convection that does develop to our west across the High Plains to remain to our west. That will also push the northwest flow further east and bringing another dry period to the entire area with a gradual warming trend starting Friday.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
The warming trend then continues over the weekend as triple digit heat returns to the western half of the area Saturday and the remainder of the area Sunday. Sunday will likely see the return of heat headlines, after a couple of slightly cooler days, as afternoon heat indices once again top 105 across parts of the area.
Models are still showing a transition of the upper ridge into the southeast part of the country as we go into next week. This will be a gradual process through the early parts of next week. So outside of far northwest Oklahoma, which may see some low rain chances, the remainder of the area looks to remain dry with highs each day of 100- 105.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
An area of showers is moving into western Oklahoma with a gust front pushing many miles ahead of the showers bringing shifting and gusty winds, although the effects of this gust front are expected to decrease with time. Otherwise apart from the areas of showers and potential thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected with the clouds across the area bring mid and upper level clouds.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 95 73 94 70 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 99 71 96 69 / 20 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 101 73 99 71 / 20 10 20 10 Gage OK 93 66 92 65 / 20 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 92 69 91 68 / 10 10 20 0 Durant OK 101 74 99 70 / 30 20 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None. TX...None.
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