textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- RED FLAG WARNING in effect across western OK for critical fire weather conditions expected Friday.

- Colder Saturday with a chance for snow flurries in western OK.

- Dry weather expected through at least the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Gusty southerly winds have returned to the area helping boost temperatures back above average for today. High temperatures will likely reach into the 60s to near 70 across far western OK into western north TX, with mid to upper 50s expected along and east of I-35. Winds will subside this evening ahead of a cold front that will enter northern OK after midnight tonight. Lows will be in the 30s for most spots by Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Bottom line: Near-critical to critical fire weather is forecast for much of the area Friday as strong winds and dry air settle into the region behind a cold front. Combined with the ongoing drought and dry fuels, conditions will be favorable for fire starts and rapid fire spread. Medium potential exists for large fire development, with a low potential for significant fire. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of western OK Friday.

Details: The primary driving factors for fire weather on Friday will be strong northwest winds and extremely dry air filtering into the area behind a cold front. A strong 850-700 mb jet is forecast to dive southward on the backside of the trough to our east during the day, with the big question being how far into this layer will we be able to mix in the midst of strong cold air advection/subsidence on the behind the trough. The models with the greatest mixing (HRRR/GFS/TTU- WRF) show wind gusts of 50-60 mph across the northwest OK, with lower end models showing gusts closer to 35-40 mph, a significant spread for only 24 hours out. Similarly, models with greater mixing are able to tap into the extremely dry air aloft and tank dew points as low as -20 to -10 during the afternoon across western OK and as low as -10 to 0 into central OK. Our current forecast somewhat splits the difference, with a hedge towards the drier/windier models given these models typically perform well during fire weather events. The main limiting factor tomorrow will be temperatures, with highs only in the mid 40s to near 50 where the strongest winds and driest air is expected. This is expected to mitigate the higher end fire potential that RH/winds would suggest alone.

Winds will decrease towards sunset but RH recovery will be quite poor overnight withsuch low dewpoints in place. The dry air will help temperatures cool into the 20s across the area Friday night. A shortwave diving south on the backside of the trough will lend some upper support for precipitation development late Friday night into Saturday morning across western portions of the area, but as of now the degree of lift does not appear sufficient to overcome the extremely dry subcloud layer for much more than a few flurries.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Temperatures are expected to moderate on Sunday as once again a downslope-warmed air mass advects eastward with a return to south to southwest surface winds. There will likely be an east-to-west temperature gradient with the lowest temperatures to the east and the highest temperatures to the west.

The warmup will be brief as yet another cold front is forecast to move through Sunday night into Monday that will bring a return to below-normal temperatures on Monday before warmer weather returns on Tuesday. As we've often seen this winter, any cold air intrusions tend to be brief as downslope-warming off the higher terrain to our west quickly erodes the cold air as the surface high moves to the east. This typically occurs when Oklahoma and north Texas are the southwestern edge of a large-scale trough with embedded shortwave troughs providing frequent, dry frontal passages within northwest flow aloft.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

LLWS is the primary concern late tonight into Friday morning with most terminals (except KDUA). Many of the latest short-term models have trended higher with post-frontal wind speeds and gusts on Friday. While there appears to be the potential for 60 knots of shear at KWWR on Friday morning, this magnitude is only apparent in the 12Z HRRR model and is thus an outlier. Have capped shear values at 50 knots for now. Expect strong north/northwest winds over northern Oklahoma early morning and becoming more widespread by mid-morning. Isolated gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible over northwest and western Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 37 51 28 42 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 35 53 27 43 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 38 56 29 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 30 49 22 39 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 33 49 23 37 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 39 57 31 45 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>018-021>024-027-033>038.

TX...None.