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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Severe storms expected by early this evening and into the overnight hours. Potential hazards: -- Large hail (> 2") -- Damaging winds (60-75 mph) -- Tornadoes

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible into early next week, mainly over portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Strong/severe thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon and night.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

After a long, hot February and March, the atmosphere's April Fool's Day prank for us this year is to jump us straight into active severe weather on the first of the month. Satellite shows a band of cirrus over the southern Rockies in advance of a compact trough. Robust height falls will overspread the dryline (along a line from near Seiling to San Angelo) this afternoon. Subsequent cooling/destabilizing aloft will prove more than sufficient for storm development, and perhaps widespread development/rapid upscale growth. A secondary area to watch for storm development will be along a surging warm front, which by mid-afternoon will extend east- northeast from that dryline into north central Oklahoma. This area is more removed from forcing and thus the chances for storms prior to sunset are lower.

Shear profiles along the dryline will favor splitting supercells initially this afternoon. Dewpoint depressions near 20 and weak 0-1 km shear will temper the initial tornado threat, but very large hail is possible with mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5/8 C/km range. If any storms develop late this afternoon along the warm front, low- level shear would be greater there, leading to a conditionally greater potential for supercellular tornadoes.

Storm development/amalgamation will continue east of the dryline as forcing continues late this evening. We anticipate that this will eventually lead to development of an eastward-moving squall line. Guidance has trended toward greater 100-mb mean mixing ratios and more classic Great Plains LLJ-induced hodographs between 0Z and 04Z tonight. Thus, concern is heightened for the potential for line- embedded tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong (EF2+). The risk for damaging winds will also increase as the LLJ ramps up and downdrafts have increased momentum to mechanically mix to the surface.

The squall line will exit our area late tonight and winds will increase from the south-southwest as a surface low develops in Kansas.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As the surface low moves eastward during the day on Thursday, the dryline will elongate from southwest to northeast and mix eastward. The residual High Plains airmass will continue to be extremely dry, so even with rather marginal surface winds, elevated fire weather will emerge in far western Oklahoma/western north Texas. The exact location of this elevated fire weather is yet to be determined due to the potential damping effect (pun not intended) of rainfall on the fuelscape. Temperatures will remain well above-normal, which is basically par for the course for this year.

Another round of storms will sweep in with a much stronger cold front on Friday. The primary surface low/upper-level forcing is expected to be closer to Iowa, leaving us on the southwestern fringe of an elongated "banana low". Those kind of early-spring banana low environments are ripe (pun not intended) for anafrontal convection as the cold front sweeps southward, and all indications are that we will see that here. That will potentially limit the severe threat or at least focus it more into a damaging wind threat along the front, though the environment does look rather unstable and shear profiles are robust. Regardless, Friday brings hope of another widespread round of wetting rain as we move into the peak of the green-up season.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday following the passage of the cold front, with decreasing clouds. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will be on the cool side and range from the upper 30's to mid 40's. No rain chances are in the forecast through Tuesday and will see temperatures gradually increase into the 70's.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Surface winds remain light and variable north of a warm front this morning, while a breezy southerly wind prevails across most of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. As the warm front lifts northward this afternoon, winds will gradually increase out of the south with improving ceiling heights through the afternoon. By late afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly across western and northern Oklahoma. By early evening, thunderstorm coverage should become numerous/widespread, so most terminals will be impacted by thunderstorms between 22Z Wednesday and 9Z Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 83 64 82 / 100 0 0 50 Hobart OK 58 85 62 86 / 70 0 0 50 Wichita Falls TX 63 88 64 85 / 90 0 0 50 Gage OK 50 84 58 82 / 60 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 60 80 62 80 / 100 0 0 50 Durant OK 65 83 65 82 / 100 30 10 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.