textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Hot and humid conditions through at least Friday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across the western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and portions of central Oklahoma.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. But no significant relief from the drought for most areas.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The subtropical ridge will begin to move eastward today. On the northwest periphery of the ridge, stronger flow aloft will result in increasing lee cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains. The lee cyclogenesis will cause a deepening surface low and attendant trough across the Central Plains, which will strengthen the surface pressure gradient across the Southern Plains.

The strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds this afternoon with sustained wind speeds at 15 to 25 mph. Vertical mixing to ~700 mb will result in wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph with the strongest gusts expected across northwest/west central Oklahoma. The breezy southerly winds will elevate fire weather conditions today. See the Fire Weather section below for more information.

While the subtropical ridge will be centered to our east, the heat will continue with an anomalously strong low-level thermal ridge across the western/northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to mid 100s deg F, which is ~15 deg F above normal for mid-September. Heat indices might be a touch lower than yesterday with the worst conditions expected across southeast/east central Oklahoma, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. However, even outside the Heat Advisory, its going to be a hot day for mid-September.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The relentless heat wave will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with the Southern Plains on the western periphery of the ~595+ dam subtropical ridge. The anomalously strong low-level thermal ridge will continue to remain in place, which will result in high temperatures in the mid 90s to the mid 100s deg F.

A cold front will shift toward northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, as this region will be on the periphery of the subtropical ridge, near stronger flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the boundary, with the potential for appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across northwest Oklahoma. With the strong ridge in place, the cold front will likely stall and dissipate during the day Wednesday before it makes much progress into northwest Oklahoma (hence why the heat wave will continue).

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

There is high confidence that above-normal temperatures will persist through at least Friday, reinforced by bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicating that even the 10th percentile remains above normal during this period. Global deterministic models and their ensemble members are in strong agreement that the subtropical ridge will remain the primary influence on our weather.

Ensemble spread increases among the global models and their ensemble members by the weekend into next week (September 19-21), which indicates the potential for a pattern change. There is a chance the subtropical ridge will break down as a mid-level trough digs across the Plains, driving a cold front southward into the Southern Plains.

Sunday currently appears to be the most probable timeframe for the cold front passage. That said, deterministic and ensemble guidance over the past couple days has shown a distinct trend toward a slower frontal timing. Probabilistic guidance highlights this forecast uncertainty, indicating a 20 to 75% probability of maximum temperatures remaining below 90 deg F on Sunday (20% southeast to 75% north). The cooler end of guidance reflects a low to moderate probability (5% southeast to 40% north) of high temperatures staying below 80 deg F. Nevertheless, a reasonable chance persists for high temperatures to top at least 90 deg F (25% north to 80% southeast) should the frontal timing continue to slow down. The first day of fall is Tuesday, September 22, so perhaps we'll see a timely front sometime by then.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. South winds will become gustier and veer slightly from mid morning Monday through late afternoon, especially across western/northwestern OK.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The total fire environment (weather + fuels) this afternoon will support heavy initial attack fires and large fires across western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and into portions of central Oklahoma.

The worst fire weather conditions will be across northwest into west central Oklahoma, where the strongest southerly winds are expected (15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) along with minimum relative humidity between 20 to 25%. However, the worst fire weather conditions will not be aligned with the most volatile fuels. Northwest Oklahoma received a wetting rainfall in the last 24 to 48 hours across portions of Harper, Ellis, Woodward, and Woods counties.

The most volatile fuels are across southwest and portions of central Oklahoma and western north Texas. These areas have not received appreciable rainfall for an extended period of time and there have been very hot wildfires per 3.9 micron shortwave window IR satellite imagery (>100 deg C) in recent days across this region. Therefore, given the weather and fuels are not completely aligned, opted to issue a large Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and portions of central Oklahoma to account for both the worst weather conditions and most volatile fuels.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 101 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 102 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 99 76 99 68 / 0 0 50 70 Ponca City OK 96 75 97 73 / 0 0 10 30 Durant OK 102 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.