textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Potential for strong-severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding through Sunday morning.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A few strong to severe storms continue across parts of central and southern Oklahoma early this morning. A weak surface low across southeast New Mexico and inverted surface trough/cold front across northwest Oklahoma will gradually shift south and east across the area overnight into Sunday morning. In addition an outflow boundary from convection has moved south of the Red River. There remains some chance of severe storms mainly across southern Oklahoma into north Texas through the morning hours.

Additional elevated showers and storms are expected to develop late tonight into Sunday morning farther north across central and northern Oklahoma with the aid of strong low level jet and isentropic assent. This activity will likely continue through the morning and into the afternoon hours before gradually shifting south late in the day as upper trough axis continue to move southeast into the central and southern Plains. This additional rainfall could also result in some isolated areas of flooding, especially in urban areas.

Otherwise, cloudy, breezy and cooler today with highs in the afternoon only climbing into the upper 60s and low to mid 70s across much of the area. Still may see a few 80s in our western north Texas counties.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The aforementioned trough axis will continue to push southeast with some lingering showers and storms across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas through the first half of the night. As the trough moves through, skies will clear from northwest to southeast. Light winds and a drier airmass will allow temperatures to drop to near 40 degrees in far northwest Oklahoma with 50s along and south of I-44.

Pleasant conditions expected Monday with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Upper heights begin to rise as upper ridge begins to build out into the Plains from the southwest bringing much warmer temperatures for Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Upper ridge will remain in control through Thursday before a couple of upper shortwaves break it down. In advance of the initial wave, lee troughing will result in increasing south winds Wednesday night and Thursday. The gusty south winds will combine with hot temperatures and low afternoon humidity to result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma Thursday afternoon.

The strong, gusty south winds will continue both Friday into Saturday with only minimal rain chances and hot afternoon temperatures. Fire weather conditions will also remain elevated across far western and northwestern Oklahoma where vegetation remains in a transition phase due to lack of precipitation. A stronger longwave trough moves through the central part of the country by Saturday dragging a cold front into the area, which may bring temperatures down at least a few degrees and also bring a chance of rain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers & thunderstorms will continue forming along to ahead of a cold front currently stretched across northern Oklahoma. Have TEMPO groups for TSRA at all of our terminals through 21Z with periods of convection and showers with lowering ceilings and reduced visibilities in rain will result in many of our terminals degrading to at least an MVFR category for some periods through the morning with a few of them lowering to an IFR category in very low stratus. Much of this convective shower activity may be along and south of the I-40 corridor where the surface boundary/cold front will be. There is a north wind shift behind the cold front although rather diffuse and weak as storm outflow may keep surface winds variable and gusty as times. Expecting rain/storm activity to be near and south of the Red River after 00Z as most of our terminals will start drying out with light northerly winds overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 69 50 76 54 / 100 10 0 0 Hobart OK 72 49 80 54 / 80 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 54 80 55 / 80 30 0 0 Gage OK 68 41 79 53 / 80 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 46 77 52 / 60 0 0 0 Durant OK 77 59 77 55 / 90 70 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.