textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Low shower and storm chances return late Tuesday through Wednesday (northern Oklahoma) and increase late Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Abundant sunshine and modest southerly winds are expected today with temperatures peaking mainly in the 95 to 105 deg range. Daytime mixing will lower dewpoint temperatures some. By early afternoon, relative humidity will decrease to 15 to 20 percent across western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas. Severe to extreme drought conditions (with pockets of exceptional drought) have contributed to ERC values above the 90th percentile. Thus, the very dry fuels and low relative humidity will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for these areas from 1 PM through 9 PM Monday.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A weak surface low develops over southwest Kansas or the panhandles by Tuesday morning as a front drops into northwest Kansas. Temperatures rise further on Tuesday as H850 flow veers ahead of an approaching shortwave. Widespread air temperatures of 100 to 103 deg are expected with values near 105 possible over north-central and southwest Oklahoma. Heat indices will also rise to near heat advisory criteria over relatively localized portions of north-central and southern Oklahoma. H850 veered flow and daytime mixing should lower dewpoint temperatures below 60 deg by early afternoon for many areas, and this should temper heat indices somewhat. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday afternoon for portions of western Oklahoma.

Winds over northwest Oklahoma shift to the NNW by Tuesday afternoon or early evening as the surface low slowly advances and as the front enters this area. There is a low chance (< 20%) of showers/storms over northwest Oklahoma in the proximity of the low and front. Chances are low mostly because of high cloud bases, but cannot rule out strong to severe wind gusts from any virga or light rain that develops. The front lifts into Kansas on Tuesday night and low rain chances continue over northern Oklahoma under a warm air advection regime.

High temperatures on Wednesday are still forecast to be hot, with widespread readings near 100 degrees. The dangerous heat potential continues on Wednesday with heat indices of 105 to 109 possible. There is a slight chance of showers/storms over northern Oklahoma during the day Wednesday as the front makes another run for northern Oklahoma.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorm chances increase to 30% on Wednesday night, 40% on Thursday, and at least 60% on Thursday night as the front pushes into northern Oklahoma and becomes nearly stationary. Medium probabilities (to near 40%) extend to the I-40 corridor by Thursday evening. Severe storm potential is being monitored for Thursday, as well, as inverted-V soundings could lead to gusty winds with any storms.

Given the increasing trend in POPs, it is not surprising that uncertainty in high temperatures is also increasing on Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures have decreased over northern Oklahoma on Thursday, and may continue to trend that way if precipitation chances hold or increase. A nearly stationary front setup has an inherent risk of leading to excessive rainfall, but the current uncertainties (e.g., frontal location, timing, and rain chances) are too high at this point to say flash flooding will be a concern.

Other than low rain chances this weekend (primarily Saturday), seasonable temperatures are anticipated.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Northwest Oklahoma will see southerly winds of 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 mph starting late this morning into the afternoon. Outside of that, winds will be light and somewhat variable. VFR conditions will continue.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 99 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 102 74 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 103 73 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 102 73 101 71 / 0 0 20 20 Ponca City OK 97 71 100 75 / 0 0 0 20 Durant OK 98 72 101 75 / 0 0 10 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.