textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Severe thunderstorms possible late overnight into Thursday morning. - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Much drier air has overspread much of Oklahoma and western north Texas, in the wake of a cold front and early morning thunderstorms. Unfortunately, a large part of western Oklahoma and northern Texas did not receive much rainfall yesterday or early this morning. With a gusty west to northwest wind this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to persist across at least western Oklahoma and northern Texas, as afternoon humidity drops to 15 to 20 percent. Early this evening, winds are expected to become rather light and humidity should improve rather quickly.

Overnight, most CAMs suggest strong to severe storms will develop across northern Texas, as a warm front begins to lift northward. Elevated instability across western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma could approach 2000+ J/kg. With rather strong effective shear, large hail will certainly be possible, perhaps 2+ inches.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible, especially across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma Thursday morning. Again most of the convection will be elevated with a risk of large hail and gusty winds. It's a little difficult to time the embedded waves within the larger scale trough to our west, but it appears there a lull in the precipitation Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Another round of showers and storms appears likely Thursday night into Friday morning, as another embedded wave approaches the southern Plains. It appears the synoptic front will remain south of the area through Friday morning, so most of the convection will be elevated with a risk of hail with some of the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall may also become a problem if storms train northwest of a stationary front across southeastern Oklahoma.

Another round of showers and storms will impact the southern Plains late Friday into Saturday. The additional rainfall during this period may result in a better chance of excessive rainfall, especially across south central/southeastern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.

Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but no impacts are expected from the snow.

The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.

Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move northeastward from Texas into Oklahoma tonight. The highest chance for showers/storms is across north Texas and southeast half of Oklahoma. The most intense thunderstorms will have brief reductions in visibility.

Shower/thunderstorm coverage should decrease from southwest to northeast during the morning. MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus will likely advance northward tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

Light north/northeast winds will back to the east or east- southeast.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 51 60 48 58 / 20 70 70 100 Hobart OK 48 63 46 60 / 20 40 80 90 Wichita Falls TX 51 63 50 62 / 50 50 80 90 Gage OK 45 64 43 58 / 40 40 60 80 Ponca City OK 49 62 47 59 / 20 70 40 90 Durant OK 55 66 56 71 / 60 90 80 100

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.