textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- An isolated strong storm may be possible Sunday afternoon across far southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Gusty wind and small hail would be the primary hazards.

- Rain and storm chances will continue through most of the week across portions of the area. Strong to severe storms may become possible.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

MCV that developed from last night's convection has very slowly meandered across portions of western north TX this morning with a general slight drift to the south. This MCV and afternoon heating could lead to a few showers/storms to develop this afternoon across portions of western north TX and southern OK. Instability of 1000- 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area so if storms develop a few could become strong to maybe severe producing hail and strong winds. Any convection is expected to end early this evening with the loss of heating.

Models also show showers/storms once again developing to the west of the fa in the High Plains this afternoon. Many of the models show this activity dissipating before moving into the fa. However, it is not completely out of the question (10-20%) for a dissipating storm or two to sneak into far western portions of the fa before completely ending later this evening. If a storm does make it into the fa, gusty winds will be possible.

Despite a couple of scenarios where showers/storms may be possible in the fa, most, if not all, of the fa is expected to remain dry this afternoon and tonight. With many locations receiving plenty of sun, temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s across the area this afternoon. A mild night is expected tonight with lows in 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Models show a closed low that meanders over central/northern/eastern TX today into Monday before lifting northward Monday night into Tuesday. Models currently have any shower/storm activity associated with the upper low remaining in TX. However, if this low tracks closer to the fa, there is a chance that at least a few showers/storms affect far southern portions of the fa.

Models also show a shortwave approaching the southern Rockies Monday then moving into the southern Plains Tuesday. Models show showers/storms developing in the higher terrain/High Plains Monday afternoon. This activity is expected to move eastward with models right now having it dissipate before moving into western portions of the fa although something that we will need to keep an eye on to see if storms can make it further east than models forecast. Overall, Monday is expected to also be dry for most, if not all, of the fa.

During the day on Tuesday there are two areas of rain chances. The first area is eastern portions of the fa, generally east of I-35. These showers/storms would be due to the previously mentioned closed low from TX lifting N or NNE east of the fa. The other area of rain chances will be in western portions of the fa as the shortwave moves into the southern Plains. These rain chances will then spread eastward Tuesday night as the shortwave continues to move across the southern Plains. Enough instability could develop that a few strong to maybe severe storms might be possible Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The shortwave from Tuesday will still be moving over the Southern Plains Wednesday and into Thursday with additional shower and storm chances across much of the area. The next upper low will be nearly stationary spinning over Nevada, which is partly why the shortwave is slow moving to eject across the Southern Plains this week. There is uncertainty in the track and evolution of this upper low out west, which could bring additional shower and storms chances next weekend. Looking at the National Blend of Models through next weekend, the area with the highest chances for greater rainfall totals over the 7 day period will be across western north Texas into southern and central Oklahoma and decrease with northward extent. However, the probabilities for at least half an inch of rainfall across any portion of the forecast area in the next week remains medium to high (40+%) with the greater chances lining up with the areas previously mentioned in the last sentence.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Areawide VFR conditions continue to return late this morning. Outside of very low (~20-30%) chances for thunder near KSPS this afternoon, scattered high clouds and a light east-southeast wind are expected today. Will monitor for renewed predawn fog chances across southeast Oklahoma early on Monday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 62 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 63 88 63 87 / 10 0 0 10 Gage OK 62 88 62 84 / 10 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 60 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 64 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.