textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Rain event continues this morning across the area; rain lingers in central and southern Oklahoma into the evening.

- Chilly on Sunday; slow warm-up thereafter.

- Rain/storm chances return by the end of the week with a cold front expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Near-term forecast impacts: Cold rain today - moderate rates in the morning, light-to-moderate rain lingering near and south of the OKC metro through the afternoon.

Discussion: Water vapor imagery shows our storm system well tonight, with the core of the upper low on the Llano Estacado southwest of Amarillo and a large baroclinic leaf spreading north and east in advance of it. Parts of eastern, central, and northern Oklahoma are still seeing the stubborn impact of dry low-level air with dewpoint depressions of 10-20F. However, further to the south and west, strong wet-bulbing has already occurred and steady light-to-moderate rain is ongoing. RAP 0-hour analysis and short-term forecasts show extremely strong (5C/hr) 850 mb warm advection during the early part of this overnight period in southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas, with moderate (2-3C/hr) warm advection continuing through daybreak along and south of I-40. Therefore, plenty of reason to expect the precipitation shield to continue as the low moves east- southeastward, though we may have already seen the peak of 1-hour rainfall rates.

Regional radar shows that the backside of the precipitation shield is already into the eastern TX panhandle. That will translate slowly eastward this morning, particularly across western north Texas/southwest Oklahoma (the areas that have received the most rain from the warm advection band, coincidentally). Further to the north and west, the expanding baroclinic leaf lends confidence to the short-range models depicting and expanding a deformation band on the north/northwest side of the low. The first indications of this can already be seen on radar near Pampa. If the HRRR/RAP/RRFS/WOOF-NAM are all correct, this deformation band will move east-southeastward in phase with the upper-level low and stall out near or just south of OKC during the afternoon. Therefore, while a majority of the area will see quieter weather with cloudy skies and perhaps light drizzle for the afternoon, the I-35 corridor from OKC to the south will likely see light to moderate rain continue.

Not expecting much if any of a diurnal cycle with thick cloud cover remaining across the entire area. Whatever temperature your location is at daybreak, maybe add a couple of degrees. For most of us, that means highs in the mid-40s.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Short-term forecast impacts: Light rain lingers in central and southern Oklahoma tonight. Low clouds and cool temperatures continue Monday.

Discussion: The trough will continue east-southeastward tonight and by Monday morning will be over Louisiana. In its place, light northerly mid-level flow will hold the regime rather steadily in place. Given the near-term forecast, that means a persistence call for low clouds and temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s on Monday afternoon. Deep saturation in forecast soundings suggests that some form of condensation is likely tonight into Monday morning. With weak easterly surface winds, would lean toward that condensation being fog/dew (potentially dense fog in western Oklahoma/western north Texas). However, even weak WAA would be enough to lead to drizzle instead. We'll continue to monitor the forecast, as whatever occurs may be enough to impact the Monday morning commute.

It looks like we'll start to break out of the regime late Monday near I-35, and on Tuesday further to the west. Southwesterly mid- level flow reaches the central Rockies/northern Plains, inducing large-scale lee troughing. This will bring breezy southerly winds back to our area and a pattern resembling dry return flow (though nowhere near as dry or warm as canonically expected) to our area.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Warming temperatures through the week with low rain chances Thursday/Friday, then a more impactful frontal system possible over the weekend.

Discussion: The large-scale pattern will be dominated by southwesterly mid-level flow for multiple days during the middle/latter part of the week. We're moving well into the cool season now, so that flow regime will feature at least one and potentially more well-defined disturbances pushing through the Plains. At first, rain chances will be rather slim with those disturbances, as this current storm system will hinder efficient moisture return. Still, by late in the week, multiple days of return flow are likely to bring warmer temperatures in the 60s and 70s and greater boundary-layer moisture. Therefore, those same disturbances by Thursday and especially Friday will have a greater chance of leading to showers or storms.

Guidance continues to indicate a more forceful trough/ejection passage on either Saturday or Sunday. This trough will include a significant frontal passage and likely a chance of pre-or-post- frontal storms. Confidence in the exact evolution remains low, so stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Upper disturbance will continue to dig across our area resulting in very low ceilings and light to moderate rainfall and lowered visibilities in rain. Expecting our terminals in western Oklahoma and western north Texas to reduce to a MVFR category within the next two hours then further to an IFR to LIFR category. Our terminals in central and southeast Oklahoma will start reducing to a MVFR category after 08Z then further to an IFR to LIFR category by 12Z. Terminals KSWO & KPNC in northcentral Oklahoma may reduce to a MVFR category by 12Z but may improve after 18Z. Otherwise all remaining terminals may remain in a IFR to LIFR category through the remainder of the forecast period. Surface winds will stay out of the southeast around 10 kts then perhaps back out of the east between 12-18Z. There is a 35 kt low-level jet coming up from northern Texas flowing to the northwest which could produce low- level wind shear for the next 6 hours over terminals KDUA, KSPS and KLAW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 43 41 53 41 / 100 30 0 0 Hobart OK 43 40 50 43 / 100 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 47 42 52 44 / 80 40 0 0 Gage OK 42 34 49 36 / 70 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 36 55 38 / 60 10 0 0 Durant OK 45 42 57 41 / 100 40 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.