textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Hot Wednesday, then back closer to average late in the week.

- Increased widespread rain chances will return late this week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

We have the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the north this afternoon and into this evening. Almost all of the models (the HRRR being the primary exception) develop a precipitation signal across northern Oklahoma by 00Z. Mesoanalysis shows that CIN is weakening across southern Kansas and cumulus development has been on the increase. Given mesoanalysis trends and the signal on most models, we do expect some storm development in the north late this afternoon. Instability will be sufficient to support isolated severe thunderstorms with the potential of hail and/or wind. These storms will likely be diurnal in nature and will likely dissipate by mid to late evening.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Wednesday in a word: hot. The heat returns for Wednesday with widespread triple digit temperatures across the north and west and triple digit heat index values areawide. Heat index values are expected to climb to between 105 and 110 in a broad area from north central to southwest Oklahoma and into western north Texas tomorrow, so we have issued a Heat Advisory for this area. But this heat will be short-lived as a cold front moves through the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing more seasonable temperatures back into the area. Thursday highs will still be on the warm side across southern Oklahoma and north Texas until the front moves through, but it will be noticeably cooler in northern and central Oklahoma.

Along with this front will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may begin developing late Wednesday afternoon across northern Oklahoma, although it is more likely we will start seeing development in the early evening. Again instability will be enough that severe weather is possible. The focus for storms will mainly be across northern Oklahoma Wednesday night. More widespread thunderstorms are expected across a broader area on Thursday near and north of the cold front. Surface instability will be limited by the cooler and more stable airmass behind the front, but elevated instability will be sufficient to support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms again with the primary threat being hail. The model consensus is for showers and storms to become widespread Thursday night, although both the NAM and operational GFS hint that there could be some convective feedback issues which develops more model QPF, while the operational ECMWF shows showers/storms decreasing over the area and shifting to the east through the night. We will keep POPs pretty high Thursday night at this point, but watch the trends tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Some showers will linger into Friday morning across the south on Friday morning, but with cooler surface ridge building south through the MS valley and residual cloud cover temperatures Friday will again top out in the 80s, even across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Most of the weekend looks to be dry with perhaps a isolated shower or storm with warming trend. Triple digit heat returns to portions of the area by Sunday afternoon, along with advisory level heat indices.

Another weaker front may bring some additional rain chances to the area late Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

There is a 30% probability that thunderstorms could initiate across northern & western Oklahoma between 23Z-04Z which could impact four of our terminals (KPNC, KSWO, KWWR, and KCSM). Although ceiling should be higher-based but visibilities could be reduced in rain and gusty variable winds should any storm cells pass over these terminals. All other terminals should remain in a VFR category through the rest of the forecast period. However, stratus with very low ceilings could spread into southeast Oklahoma by 15Z potentially degrading terminal KDUA to an IFR category late in the forecast. Although a bit gusty across western Oklahoma a weak pressure gradient will keep surface winds light & variable through 21Z with a slight increase of southerly winds by 21Z before backing more southeast after 00Z. A moderate low- level jet will be increasing out of the south by 06Z which could result in low-level wind shear conditions over our terminals. Surface winds will be veering out of the south by 15Z as the pressure gradient tightens resulting in wind speeds sustained at 15-20 kts while late morning mixing into the low-level jet could result in 30 mph gusts at the surface.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 73 98 76 88 / 10 0 0 40 Hobart OK 73 102 75 93 / 10 0 0 30 Wichita Falls TX 73 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 73 104 72 85 / 20 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 74 99 73 81 / 20 10 30 70 Durant OK 74 92 77 94 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-015>025-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.