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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 421 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
- Unseasonably warm temperatures expected into next week.
- Next chance for rain Monday-Tuesday.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday) Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Warmer temperatures are expected in most locations overnight/early Friday compared to last night's temperatures with Friday morning lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Models show a front moving across much of the fa during the day Friday. The front will cause winds to shift to the north and northeast. The front will also lead to cooler afternoon temps in northern OK (highs in the mid/upper 60s) compared to along the Red River where highs are expected to climb into the mid/upper 70s.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
The previously mentioned front is expected to move out of the area Friday evening with cooler air moving into the region behind the front. Lows Friday night are expected to fall into the upper 20s to 30s across the fa. Models are also showing some cloud cover will move into the area Friday night and continue to affect parts of the fa for at least part of the day Saturday. With the cooler airmass and cloud cover, temperatures are not expected to be quite as warm as Friday. However, sfc winds are expected to shift to the south Saturday. The southerly winds along with southwest winds at 850mb and some sun, temperatures are still expected to warm into the upper 50s to around 70 Saturday afternoon. If the clouds and cooler air holds on longer than expected, temperatures will likely be a bit cooler than what is currently forecast.
Models show an upper low hanging out over western Mexico with some mid/upper level ridging over the region. With the ridging, temperatures are expected to warm back up into the 70s on Sunday with lows mostly in the upper 30s and 40s both Saturday night and Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Models show the upper low eventually opening up and moving across the southern Plains as a wave Tuesday. Meanwhile, sfc moisture will be on the increase early next week with a sfc low and cold front expected to move across the area Tuesday. All this will bring a chance for rain starting in SW portions of the fa Monday afternoon with chances spreading north and east Monday night. The rain chances will continue into Tuesday and are expected to end as the upper wave moves out of the area.
The warmer temperatures will continue Monday with highs once again in the 70s. These temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. The front moving across the area Tuesday will lead to "cooler" (highs in the mid/upper 60s) temperatures in northern OK with highs in the 70s expected across the rest of the fa. The airmass behind the front isn't particularly cold but will lead to highs more in the upper 50s and 60s (10 to 15 degrees cooler than Monday) for the middle of next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Light westerly winds will veer to the north and become gusty by mid-morning for many locations following a frontal passage. Scattered high clouds begin moving in from the west late Friday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 70 35 63 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 73 35 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 38 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 31 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 65 31 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 78 38 63 47 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None. TX...None.
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