textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concern remains through Monday evening, especially across western and northern Oklahoma.

- Increasing potential for rain and storms for portions of the area from Tuesday onward next week; Monitoring severe weather potential.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

While the beginning of the weekend will feature splendid sensible conditions, fire weather concern is developing at this hour.

As has been the case for much of the mid to late month, our area sits downstream of a high-amplitude upper ridge across the Four Corners. At the surface, a strong (1038 mb) area of high pressure continues to slide across the northern Mississippi Valley. After a cool start this morning, temperatures are warming towards seasonable readings (60s) by the mid-afternoon. Coolest conditions are actually expected near and south of the Red River today, where ongoing mid clouds may remain persistent into the early evening.

Surface winds were light this morning, as the aforementioned surface high impinged across the area. As stronger mid-level flow continues to overspread the Rockies, and lee cyclogenesis begins, breezier south-to-southwesterly winds are returning across northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 30-35 mph will be possible through just after sunset.

With the state of vegetation not getting any better (i.e., drying) across the region, and with relative humidity expected to fall near and just below 15% into the early afternoon, elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of western and northern Oklahoma. A Red Flag Warning has been initiated through 7 PM for portions of this region.

With a breezy south wind continuing past sunset here, the fire weather risk will be temporally controlled by improving humidity conditions into the mid-evening, as weak moisture transport spreads northward.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Fire weather risk doesn't look to abate anytime soon, with increasingly warm temperatures and continued gusty winds and low afternoon humidity on Sunday and Monday.

The prevailing upper ridge looks to begin shifting eastward from Sunday into the early week, with advection of increasingly warm low-level/downsloped airmasses during this time. Peak temperatures on Sunday look to run +20-30 degrees compared to today/Saturday, with 90s likely across higher terrain in the west. Conditions look even warmer into Monday, with the profile of 90s spreading eastward towards the I-35 corridor.

Gusty south-to-southwesterly winds are also expected during much of period, as stronger/more pronounced low-level jet features migrate overhead. This will be especially the case by Monday, when rather widespread and persistent gusts near and above 40 mph will be possible.

The combination of above-average temperatures, increasingly strong winds, low humidity and very susceptible vegetation will yield continuation of rather widespread fire weather concern. Near- critical to locally critical conditions are most likely across western and northern Oklahoma & western-north Texas, especially on Monday.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Warm and breezy conditions (along with fire risk) continue on Tuesday. There is more of a consistent signal of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area. While the severe risk is still muted somewhat at this range, model soundings suggest moderate instability, modest uni-directional shear, relatively high cloud bases, and steep low-level lapse rates, which would support strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing gusty winds and some hail. For now, the benefit of receiving rainfall appears greater than the severe risk. Unfortunately, the probability of receiving at least 0.5" of rainfall with this system is low (<20%) across most of the CWA with a medium potential (40-50%) for areas south of I-40 and east of I-35.

The dynamic synoptic pattern continues through the end of next week, with rain/storm chances returning daily through Friday.

Thompson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions with some low VFR ceilings this evening then again late tonight into early Sunday at a few TAF sites. LLWS is also expected at KWWR overnight into Sunday morning. Otherwise, S to SE wind expected tonight with winds shifting to the SW Sunday becoming breezy/gusty.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 47 81 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 44 84 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 45 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 44 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 46 80 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 50 79 60 83 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006- 009>011-015.

TX...None.