textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Above-normal temperatures expected through Wednesday with slightly cooler weather Thursday and Friday.

- Next chance for rain is late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1250 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Expecting temperatures to warm up well above normal with the remainder of the afternoon hours as low-mid cloud cover decreases. Some areas that may fail to reach 70 include northwest Oklahoma in the vicinity of a weak surface front, and north central/west central Oklahoma where fog banks remained until late morning.

A modest southwest breeze continues throughout the rest of the day before diminishing at sunset. Dew development is likely across much of the area tonight, but any fog before daybreak may be confined to a chunk of northern Oklahoma ahead of an advancing cold front.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1250 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A trough and associated speed max will slide southeastward from the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This amplified period of northwest flow will encourage a cold front to advance through our area during the morning and early afternoon hours. The upstream airmass is not cool - surface temps are in the low 60s as far north as the Wyoming/Montana border this afternoon - so while northwest winds will prevent us from reaching much above- normal tomorrow, temps will still reach near 70 north of the front (and south of the front, we will likely see some locations in the low 80s).

The large-scale pattern will amplify even further during the day on Thursday with ridging along the spine of the Rockies and troughing all through the eastern half of the country. A more dominant surface high will become established across Manitoba, which will force another reinforcing front southward. This source airmass will be a little bit chillier. It's unclear if the reinforcing front arrives in time to affect Thursday highs, but lows Thursday night will be cooler than they have been.

Forecast looks to be dry through the short-term period.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Cool, near-normal temperatures will occur on Friday as Oklahoma and north Texas remain under the influence of a surface high that remains in place across the Midwest, which will result in light east-to-northeast flow (continuing the cold air advection). Temperatures should see a slight moderation on Saturday with a return to southerly winds. However, increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system will likely temper the warmup.

By late Saturday into Sunday, a shortwave trough will lift into the Plains, bringing a chance of rain. Elevated instability will be present, so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible. There is the potential for appreciable rainfall, with a 20 to 40% chance of receiving half an inch of rainfall. Depending on how heavy and widespread the rainfall is, Sunday could be a chilly day. Bias- corrected probabilistic guidance has a wide range of high temperatures from the upper 40s to the low 70s deg F (10th to 90th percentile), with the cooler end of guidance more likely if the rainfall/cloud cover is widespread enough. If the rain/cloud cover is more limited, the warmer end of guidance would occur.

For next week (especially the latter half of the week), deterministic models and their ensemble members indicate an increasing probability of a more active weather pattern, with southwest flow developing across the southwestern United States. As waves embedded within the southwest flow lift northeastward into the Plains, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern also appears unfavorable for any significant cooldown.

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 459 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds expected through much of the night. There is a chance for some early morning fog that could impact, PNC/SWO/OKC/OUN/DUA, but if it does occur it is expected to be short-lived as a cold front sweeps south across Oklahoma and western north Texas Wednesday morning. Winds will shift to the north behind the front, but should remain around 12kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 54 70 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 52 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 54 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 45 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 49 71 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 57 80 50 75 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.