textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 441 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- A marginal risk for severe storms through about noon.

- Chance for light snow Friday afternoon and evening across northwest OK, with little accumulation or impact expected.

- Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A shortwave trough, currently moving across New Mexico, will continue to move quickly northeast through Thursday morning, before lifting north and east of the state by noon. Strong theta-e advection is underway with 3-hr dewpoint changes around 20-25 degrees across south central Oklahoma. This airmass will continue to advect northward during the overnight hours with lower 60 dewpoint air reaching a Stillwater to Lawton and Wichita Falls line by sunrise. Better forcing has already reached West Texas as weak echos are becoming more pronounced and expanding in coverage.

Scattered to numerous showers will develop, especially after 3 am (per recent runs of the HRRR) with better coverage over western Oklahoma and western north Texas. It still appears most of this activity will be elevated with fast moving showers/storms (at least 50 mph northeast).

As stronger forcing encounters better theta-e air (central Oklahoma) stronger storms are possible with several CAMs indicating more of a quasi-linear look or a broken line of storms. Although instability will likely be weak (below 1000 J/kg), rather strong 0-1 km shear of at least 35-40 knots is forecast. Per soundings, most of the convection will be elevated, but there is a low chance of boundary- layer storms which would increase the risk of QLCS tornadoes/couplets. This would increase the risk of locally damaging winds etc. Most the convection will be east of our southeast counties by noon.

Clouds will decrease quickly this morning with a gusty southwest wind in the wake of the showers and storms. Temperatures will again warm well into the 70s across at least the southern half of Oklahoma. Better cold air advection will arrive during the afternoon, mainly across the northwestern half of the state. Southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will keep a breezy southwest wind through the afternoon and may see humidity approach 20 percent. Although some rain may fall across this area, a clear sky and a breezy wind may negate this benefit. So elevated fire weather conditions may occur by mid afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1242 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Cold air will continue to move southward tonight with temperatures falling below freezing across northwest Oklahoma. Another trough/upper low will approach the area early to mid Friday. This system is expected to phase with another trough moving across the northern Plains. As a result, this system may weaken some as it moves eastward across the southern Plains late Friday into Saturday. However, chances are fairly high that some precipitation will occur on Friday with snow possible across northwest Oklahoma. It's certainly possible that a few areas (NW) may experience snowfall rates high enough to lower temperature to freezing which would allow some accumulation on the grass. Heavy snowfall rates would likely be necessary for impacts on roads which is not anticipated. Clouds are expected to decrease Friday night into Saturday with near average temperatures, and a breezy northwest wind.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1242 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Cold/cool surface high pressure is expected to build across the region on Sunday bringing lighter wind speeds. Afternoon highs should be close to average with the bulk of the cold air remaining north and east of our area. A southerly wind will return on Monday bring warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the 60s. With an unusually strong ridge centered over the West Coast early next, the southern Plains will remain in northwest flow aloft. This will allow another frontal passage around Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Showers/storms and associated MVFR conditions will impact most sites between 12Z and 16Z before quickly shifting east with VFR conditions returning. Strong southwest winds will shift to the west and northwest during the day today as a cold front sweeps south across the area. Winds will diminish quickly this evening and become light. There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at PNC this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 37 52 32 49 / 0 10 10 0 Hobart OK 33 52 29 53 / 0 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 62 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 29 40 21 48 / 10 60 30 0 Ponca City OK 35 48 29 49 / 0 20 20 0 Durant OK 43 63 37 54 / 0 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.