textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Periods of rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday (mainly along & east of I-44/I-35) with a limited severe weather risk across southern Oklahoma.

- More focused and potentially significant risks of severe weather on Thursday evening/night and Friday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible across western Oklahoma/western-north Texas on Friday afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1239 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The beginnings of a more active weather period, with potential for multiple waves of thunderstorms (each with some severe weather risk), will arrive early this morning.

A strong isentropic/warm air advection regime is present across Oklahoma and north Texas at this hour, with scattered thunderstorm development occurring from the eastern Texas Panhandle into portions of northwestern Oklahoma. Objective analysis shows an impressive environment for hail-producing thunderstorms, with a plume of >2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, strong wind shear and steep mid- level lapse rates across the aforementioned corridor. A few thunderstorms will likely pose a threat for large hail, at least briefly, with hailstones as large as golf ball in size possible. Recent indications are for activity to gradually organize into a semi-organized cluster as it moves eastward across northern Oklahoma prior to daybreak. Despite positioned well into the stable airmass behind the front, with surface temperatures in the 40s, gusty winds cannot be ruled out as well.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should gradual uptrend through the morning into afternoon closer to the frontal boundary across central, south-central and southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas. While an intermittent strong-severe thunderstorm risk cannot be ruled out prior to the mid-afternoon, a more "focused" risk should materialize across the far southeastern corner of the area into the evening. Large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

Regardless of whether or not you see rain/storms today, a dreary day is expected across the area, with widespread low clouds likely to linger for much of the day behind the front. As such, we have adjusted the maximum forecast temperature down several degrees for areas along and west of Interstate 44.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1239 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and intermittent thunderstorms will continue through much of the night near the front from western- north Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, with chances spreading slowly northward with time (into central Oklahoma) as the front begins to return as a warm front. A few hail-producing thunderstorms will be possible through daybreak Thursday.

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT: While scattered precipitation cells are possible east of I-35 into Thursday afternoon, much of the day is expected to be dry. An increasingly more focused (and potentially more significant) risk for severe thunderstorms is evident into Thursday evening and night, as a lead upper impulse emerges east of southern Rockies. Scattered organized thunderstorms/supercells are expected to take shape across the central and eastern Texas Panhandle and spread into portions of western Oklahoma and western- north Texas during this time. The progged mesoscale environment supports the potential for all severe weather hazards, with any tornadic concern likely dependent on the degree of offsetting moisture/theta-e flux into the late evening/night. Convective intensity is currently anticipated to wane as activity moves deeper into central and eastern Oklahoma into early Friday morning.

FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT: Risks for organized severe and fire weather are evident on Friday, as a strong upper wave moves eastward into the Plains. Most of the morning and afternoon will be dry, as a sharpening dryline moves eastward and surface low deepens across southwestern Kansas. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible across the moist sector, with the progged mesoscale environment supporting supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. The nature of the tornado risk is somewhat uncertain, with composite wind profiles showing a pronounced weakness around ~2-2.5 km, perhaps hampering longevity/organization of low-level mesocyclones. As of now, Friday afternoon & evening looks to be one of those classic days with a limited number of likely intense storms.

In the wake of the dryline, an overlapping area of warm temperatures, very low humidity and gusty southwesterly winds is expected to take shape. Pending the impact of previous day(s) rainfall (or lack thereof), areas of at least elevated fire weather are possible across far western Oklahoma and adjacent western-north Texas during the afternoon and early evening.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue on Saturday, though shift southward into the Red River Valley, as the main upper wave departs to the north, with a continued band of southwesterly flow and upper low positioned upstream.

A brief period of warmer and drier weather is expected on Sunday and Monday, as a quasi split-flow pattern takes shape across the western CONUS. Precipitation/storm chances make their return into Tuesday (and beyond), as the previously closed upper low begins to open up and shift east-northeastward.

Ungar

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A cold front has advanced to southeast tonight with MVFR to IFR stratus and northerly winds behind it. The exception is at KDUA, which remains ahead of the cold front.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across northwest Oklahoma. These storms will move east-northeast primarily across northern Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow morning with lower chances farther south. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon/evening across southeast Oklahoma (KDUA).

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 53 48 72 61 / 50 40 40 50 Hobart OK 59 46 72 58 / 20 20 40 60 Wichita Falls TX 63 55 77 63 / 40 60 50 50 Gage OK 57 39 71 53 / 30 0 20 60 Ponca City OK 53 42 70 60 / 90 10 20 70 Durant OK 72 59 75 62 / 80 70 50 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.