textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Seasonable temperatures are expected through the middle part of this week.

- Breezy southerly winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions across northwest Oklahoma today.

- A more active pattern is expected to bring a return of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Dry and seasonable weather for early April will continue today with no significant air mass change today. Light and variable winds this morning will become southerly today with increasing lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. As a result, on average temperatures will only be a few degrees higher than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 70s deg F.

The strengthening surface pressure gradient will bring gusty southerly winds across northwest Oklahoma. South winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected. These winds will combine with relative humidity values around 18 to 25% to result in elevated fire weather conditions. Given this area received little no rainfall, vegetation remain susceptible to wildfire spread with ERC-G values between the 70th and 90th percentile. Therefore, the total fire environment (fuels + weather) is favorable for initial attack fires and a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) was issued for northwest Oklahoma.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weak shortwave trough will provide synopic-scale ascent late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is a low (~15 to 20%) chance of showers as this wave quickly passes by. Any rainfall will be light. For most locations, the primary impact will be increased cloud cover with broken to overcast skies.

The increasing cloud cover during the day Tuesday should result in temperatures a few degrees lower than today and temper the fire weather conditions. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s deg F. As the shortwave trough moves eastward Wednesday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions may develop across northwest Oklahoma with breezy southerly winds as skies clear from west to east.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

By Thursday and Friday, instability will increase across the Oklahoma and north Texas as southerly winds advect moisture northward. The increasing low-level moisture should mitigate any fire weather concerns by the end of the week. At the same time, a couple surface boundaries may serve as the focus for the development of convection. A cold front will advance southward across the Plains as a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes region. The cold front (or the effective cold front) may approach northern Oklahoma with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. In addition, showers and thunderstorms may develop along the dry line across the High Plains with the remnants of this convection moving into western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

This will be the start of an active synoptic-scale pattern that is forecast this weekend into early next week as southwest flow aloft likely develops across the Southern Plains. Southwest flow is favorable for synoptic-scale ascent and increased vertical wind shear in tandem with moisture advection and increased instability as shortwave troughs embedded within the flow lift into the Plains. As a result, there will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms with some potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall/flooding. The active pattern will persist until the large-scale closed-low/trough across the southwest U.S. finally lifts into the Plains.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions with some cirrus this TAF period. Light winds this morning will gradually shift towards the SE and S. Wind speeds will increase in western OK this afternoon as pressure gradient increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 72 44 70 49 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 73 43 70 47 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 72 44 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 75 43 70 45 / 0 0 10 20 Ponca City OK 72 41 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 71 45 71 51 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.