textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather northwest of I-44 today.

- Severe weather potential returns Tuesday, with a slight risk for the entire area.

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma mid to late week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The main forecast concern for today will be fire weather across portions of western, central, and northern OK as drier air works in from the west and winds become gusty from the southwest this afternoon. Relative humidity values could fall to 5-10% for a time across far western OK, which will lead to near-critical to locally critical fire weather conditions for a time. Temperatures will be quite warm as well, with near-record to record highs possible this afternoon in many locations (mid 80s to near 90 degrees). Winds will remain breezy from the south overnight as a surface low slowly deepens across KS in advance of an approaching cutoff low over the southwest US. This well draw surface moisture farther north and west and help keep low temperatures quite mild, with lows across much of central/southeast OK and western north TX only dropping into the mid 60s (near seasonal average highs for this time of year).

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The upper low across the southwest US will continue eastward on Tuesday, weakening and becoming more of an open wave over time as it interacts with the northern stream jet. With forcing from the wave overspreading the warm sector during the afternoon, potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. However, several complicating factors lead to a higher than normal degree of uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity across our area. Extensive mid to high cloud cover is forecast to blanket the region through the day in advance of the system,likely limiting surface heating and destabilization. Additionally, a fairly strong capping inversion is evident within forecast model soundings that will need to be overcome for surface based convection. Finally, much of the CAM guidance is showing extensive scouring of surface moisture Tuesday afternoon across central/western/northern OK, likely as a result of veering low-level winds and the potential for drier mid-level air to mix down towards the surface.

Given these above factors, the greatest confidence for severe storms is currently across western north TX into south-central OK where moisture/instability is forecast to be greater, with the potential for one or more rounds of storms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across this area. Farther to the north/west into central/western/northern OK, confidence is much lower on overall storm coverage, with the potential for only a few storms, or even no storms at all, if moisture and instability is limited by shower/storm activity to the south. Given shear profiles, storm mode could include a mix of supercells and storm clusters, transitioning towards more linear segments by Tuesday evening. The main hazards with these storms will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. The overall tornado risk is low but will be maximized during the evening across western north TX and south-central OK, with the potential for QLCS tornadoes as storms become more linear with time.

A cold front will then move in from the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, helping push thunderstorm activity east of the area and bringing cooler temperatures and strong north winds behind it. Winds could gust to 40-50 mph Wednesday morning across western OK as 850 mb flow appears quite strong behind the front. Breezy conditions will linger through the day on Wednesday, but speeds are expected to subside through the afternoon. These breezy conditions and drier air will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather across much of the western half of the area Wednesday afternoon.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Late week will be dry with daily occurrences of elevated fire weather expected across our western counties. Temperatures will gradually rebound after Wednesday's frontal passage with 70s and 80s expected again by Friday.

Day

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Low ceilings across southeast Oklahoma will keep terminal KDUA in a MVFR category for the next couple of hours after which that stratus should scatter or move out. All of our remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 12Z. Southwest surface winds at 15 gusting 20-25 kts will persist through 23Z. By 00Z surface winds go light & variable across terminals KPNC, KSWO, & KWWR while surface winds will back out of the south around 10-15 kts across our remaining terminals. A strong low-level jet orientated southwest to northeast will again increase tonight resulting in low-level wind shear conditions across most of our terminals by 04Z. Ceilings could lower after 12Z with some of our terminals degrading MVFR to an IFR category. There is a 30% probability of TSRA in southeast Oklahoma which could impact terminal KDUA by 12Z as well. South surface winds will veer/increase out of the south-southwest by 16Z around 15 gusting to 20 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 65 82 55 66 / 0 50 60 20 Hobart OK 61 86 50 67 / 0 50 50 10 Wichita Falls TX 66 84 55 71 / 10 60 80 20 Gage OK 51 84 44 61 / 0 40 20 0 Ponca City OK 60 85 51 63 / 0 40 60 20 Durant OK 66 79 61 74 / 10 60 90 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.