textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, but not as hot as recent weeks.

- Low chances for precipitation each day across western OK and western north TX through Thursday, increasing and expanding east into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Upper ridging centered across TX will slowly shift eastward through the day today, with low-level flow transitioning to south/southeasterly. This will lead to modest moisture advection across western/southwestern OK and western north TX through the day, promoting scattered shower and thunderstorm development by the afternoon in these areas. With weak shear and modest instability the severe threat appears limited, but increasingly deep moisture profiles (PWAT 1.7-2.0") could lead to some heavy downpours with the stronger storms. Activity will likely linger into the evening but the better chances are expected to retreat westward with time as the better forcing takes shape across the panhandles and eastern NM associated with a subtropical wave on the western side of the upper ridge.

Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 80s to low 90s the norm across most of the area.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

On Thursday the moisture plume to our west is forecast to make slight progress eastward through the day. This could bring increasing shower and storm chances to western parts of the area by the afternoon. While a few models show this activity reaching as far east the I-35 corridor, higher chances will be favored the further west you go.

At least scattered shower/storm activity is expected to continue into Friday, with the highest chances once again across western/northwestern OK. Highs both days will be quite similar, with upper 80s low 90s for much of central/southern parts of the area, with some low 80s possible in northwest OK where clouds/rain will be most prevalent.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

The upper ridge will flatten further this weekend into early next week as troughing over the western US deepens. Models show two shortwaves, one this weekend and a potentially much stronger one by next Tuesday/Wednesday, that could bring increased shower and storm chances over a broader portion of the area. Chances this weekend appear more scattered in nature as the better forcing from the shortwave travels largely to our north and west and the mid-level flow veers more substantially. The wave next week has the potential to bring more widespread/heavier precipitation, especially if moisture from eastern Pacific tropical activity can become involved as some models suggest, but those details remain uncertain from this range.

With a lack of significant fronts, temperatures are forecast to remain well above average through the weekend and beyond, with 90s potentially becoming more widespread by the weekend.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Stratus with IFR ceilings is spreading southwest across eastern Kansas. Given the current trajectory, it is not a guarantee that it work into KPNC and KSWO, the probability is high enough to include a TEMPO group of IFR or MVFR ceilings at the north central Oklahoma TAF sites. Unfortunately ceilings are not being reported right now on the KPNC observation, so we include the AMD NOT SKED note with the KPNC TAF. Any low ceilings that do impact these sites should lift or dissipate by late this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms may move into or develop across far western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and tonight, although the highest chances will remain west of the TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 90 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 91 70 92 69 / 20 20 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 95 71 95 69 / 20 20 10 0 Gage OK 86 66 88 65 / 20 30 50 70 Ponca City OK 85 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 95 67 94 64 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.