textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 502 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Elevated fire weather risk is possible today due to north winds gusting to 40 mph - Chance of light rain today and tonight for southern portions of the area - Widespread rainfall is likely end of the week into this weekend

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Latest observations indicate a cold front is currently oriented from southwest to north-east KS. This cold front makes an entrance within the next few hours and will be marked by strong north winds sustained to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. A developing surface low is anticipated to develop near the front over northwest Oklahoma and track across north- central Oklahoma before exiting our CWA mid- morning as the front moves into central Oklahoma. This will foster a tight pressure gradient and continued breezy conditions as the front progresses through the area. Given the high probabilities of several hours of at least 40 mph gusts with the evening run of the HREF, a Wind Advisory was issued for northern and western Oklahoma. Elevated fire weather conditions are a concern today across northwest, north-central, west-central, and southwest Oklahoma, and a fire danger statement has been issued for these areas. Abundant cloud-cover could hinder satellite fire detection today.

High temperatures have been lowered for large portion of the CWA today towards the short-term model guidance. Temperatures will range from the mid-50's (northwest Oklahoma) to mid/upper-70's (portions of north TX and southern Oklahoma).

As for precipitation, there is a medium-high probability (60% to 90%) of at least a trace of QPF by tonight for southern Oklahoma and western north Texas (in the vicinity of the 700 mb frontogenetical zone). The closed mid-level low pressure system, which is currently spinning along the eastern shore of the Baja peninsula, begins to open today and expected to reach southwest Texas this evening. Forecast soundings show relatively high LCLs (near 700 mb, or 8- 12kft) with a deep and dry sub-cloud layer which would promote primarily virga and sprinkles (at least initially). These vertical profile characteristics could begin to modify towards the afternoon and evening hours, and therefore, POPs increase during this time frame ahead of the elevated frontal zone. Areas with greatest chances of seeing rainfall are far southern TX and OK counties near the Red River with chances exiting late Tuesday night as the upper trough passes south of our area.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Expect decreasing clouds and colder temperatures on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with lows in the upper 20's to low 40's. Mostly sunny skies, cooler conditions, and considerably lighter northeast winds are expected on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front and as a ridge crosses the southern plains. Then, mid-level height falls ahead of a weak shortwave trough overspread the region and prompts the re-development of a surface trough late Wednesday. This marks the return of southerly winds late Wednesday over northwest Oklahoma.

Warm conditions return on Thursday before the arrival of the next cold front, which has the potential to become quasi-stationary over northern Oklahoma before being nudged a bit southward on Thursday night. Low rain chances return to the area on Thursday night.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

By Friday, a potent trough reaches Baja California as a closed mid- level low pressure system. This system will bring much needed rainfall to our area this weekend. NBM shows generously high probabilities of at least 1 inch of rainfall for a good chunk of the FA, with 70-80% chance of this occurring for areas east and south of a line from Wichita Falls to Fairview to Ponca City.

Southwest flow and mid-level height falls overspreads our region on Friday afternoon. Mid-level moisture content progressively increases, and by late Friday, high PWAT values of 1 to 1.25 inches (> 90th percentile for this time of year) are expected in our area. Widespread moderate rainfall is likely by Friday night and will continue on Saturday as this system potentially deepens over our region along with strong low- level WAA. There is a signal for the quasi- stationary front to remain in our area as this upper-level system approaches. The southwest steering flow atop this quasi- stationary surface boundary could lead to training of showers and storms (though only low instability is forecast).

As is often the case in our neck of the woods, it's sometimes a case of feast or famine with regards to rainfall (or lack thereof). Given the high chances of beneficial rainfall (1+ inches), there are signals that several ingredients could align and lead to too much rainfall in a short time. So, we will have to monitor for the flash flood potential as we head into Valentine's Day weekend. As is often the case with closed low pressure systems, there is at least some potential that this rainfall event could be delayed by a day or so.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Widespread mid/high clouds expected throughout much of the TAF period with clouds starting to slowly clear early Wednesday. Light rain will be possible today and tonight with chances mainly in parts of southern OK and north TX which could affect KLAW/KSPS/KDUA. Winds will shift towards the north today as a cold front moves across the area. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 59 37 61 42 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 58 33 61 39 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 40 65 42 / 40 40 0 0 Gage OK 54 27 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 59 32 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 75 45 66 44 / 30 50 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ004>007- 009>012-014>017-021-022-034-035.

TX...None.