textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 102 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Widespread rain event expected from today through Sunday, with the entire area seeing measurable rain and a maximum swath of about 1-1.5 inches of rain south of I-40.

- Chilly on Sunday; slow warm-up thereafter.

- Rain/storm chances return by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Showers are on the increase early this afternoon across western OK as the trough axis over the rockies continues to progress closer to the area. A dry boundary layer will help keep things dry across central/eastern parts of the area until later this afternoon into this evening with rainfall intensities then expected to increase later tonight as warm advection maximizes over the area. Thunderstorms are unlikely across most of OK as instability is quite limited, but with a bit better instability further south we could see a few storms make it into western north TX tonight with the potential for some small (possibly accumulating) hail with the stronger storm cores.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Showers will continue into the day on Sunday as the upper low moves over the area, with forcing then waning through the afternoon as the low moves to our east and weakens. As far as rainfall amounts, the 12z model guidance has made a bit of a southward shift once again, with some CAMs also showing a fairly sharp gradient on the northeast side of the precip shield as it runs into drier air to the east. Our latest forecast has generally 0.25-1.00" from I-40 north (with decreasing amounts with northward extent) and 1.00-1.50" along and south of I-40. Locally higher amounts are possible in areas that see thunderstorms, with the best chance for this being across western north TX into far southern OK. Widespread/significant flooding remains unlikely with this system, but ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding in poor drainage areas could occur. Temperatures will remain quite chilly through the day on Sunday with east winds and extensive clouds/showers around. Readings will likely be stuck in the low 40s across much of the area, potentially making it closer to 50 degrees in north-central OK and western north TX where rain is forecast to be lighter Sunday afternoon.

Showers will continue to diminish and become more isolated Sunday evening, with dry conditions expected by Monday morning. Clouds will take a little longer to clear out, but expect more and more breaks in the clouds by Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will be cool, though not as cold as Sunday, generally in the low to mid 50s.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 122 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Gradual warm-up, with rain chances returning by the end of the week.

Discussion: Shortwave ridging returns briefly to the Plains on Tuesday. This will help clear the mechanism from the cold/wet/cloudy pattern. With southwest flow building over the northern Plains during the day, winds here will shift southerly and potentially get rather breezy. All of this suggests dry and slightly warmer weather.

That southwest mid-level flow will dominate more of the Plains by Wednesday. Breezy conditions and warmer temperatures are likely to follow each of Wednesday and Thursday with more substantial moisture return occurring by day 3 or 4 of the return flow regime. With a favorable upper-air pattern and increasing moisture, storm chances will increase on Thursday/Friday, though a specific window or location for those storms has yet to emerge on ensemble data.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions will quickly shift towards MVFR to IFR through the period. Widespread rain showers will move into the area from west to east today, and will continue through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally remain out of the east-southeast. Rain showers tomorrow will gradually shift to the south and east by the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 40 43 40 54 / 100 100 40 0 Hobart OK 41 44 40 52 / 100 90 30 0 Wichita Falls TX 44 48 42 53 / 100 80 30 0 Gage OK 35 42 35 52 / 100 80 20 0 Ponca City OK 40 47 36 57 / 60 80 20 0 Durant OK 41 46 42 60 / 90 100 60 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.