textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Severe weather potential returns today, with a slight risk for most of the area and an enhanced risk across southwest portions of the area.

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma mid to late week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Focus in the near term continues to be on chances for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening across much of the area. As of early afternoon, an upper low is evident on water vapor moving eastward across northern MX. Over our area, south winds continue to maintain moisture advection ahead of a dryline which is positioned across far western OK into the TX panhandle. Stratus this morning has become more scattered, leaving plenty of sunshine across central/western parts of the area, with low clouds hanging on across southeast OK.

Storms are expected to fire along the dryline across west-central and southwest TX as the cap erodes, with greater uncertainty on initiation the farther north you go into western north TX and western OK. If enough heating can occur to overcome the cap, isolated supercells will be possible across western OK through early evening, with a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a very low risk for a tornado. Greater confidence for storms exists across portions of western north TX northeastward into southern/central OK as storms to our south move/develop into the area later this afternoon and this evening. Any discrete or semi-discrete storm this afternoon will be capable of very large hail (>2.5" in diameter) before storms are expected to grow upscale into a line by early evening. This should signal a transition away from large hail and more towards damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard this evening. That said, sufficient low-level shear will be in place for a low risk for tornadoes embedded in the line as well, especially with any favorably oriented (NW-SE) line segments. Finally, a few storms with a risk for large hail and damaging winds will also be possible across northern OK closer to a cold front, though as of now it appears the majority of this activity may end up just to our north in southern KS.

The severe risk is expected to diminish after midnight as instability wanes and activity moves east of the area, though showers and (non- severe) storms could linger across southeast OK through much of the overnight.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A cold front will enter our area later tonight, bringing strong north winds behind it. Expect the front to reach northwest OK between 2-4am, reaching the I-44 corridor between 6-8am, and clearing southeast OK around noon. With 850 mb flow ~50 knots behind the front, winds could gust to 40-50 mph across much of the western half of the area, with a few gusts of 50-60 mph possible across west- central and southwest OK. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these areas from 4am-7pm Wednesday with winds expected to diminish quickly after sunset Wednesday evening.

Given the strong wind potential, fire weather will once again be a concern Wednesday, even as temperatures cool back to near average for this time of year. Near-critical fire weather is most probable across western OK, with elevated conditions expected across much of the rest of the area outside of southeast OK.

Although winds will be lighter compared to Wednesday, dry return flow on Thursday will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the western third of the area.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week into the weekend. Friday and Saturday will feature a warming trend before another strong cold front early Sunday morning. Behind this frontal boundary, temperatures will drop to near normal sunday, and below normal on Monday. Each day will feature at least elevated fire weather conditions, with Sunday looking like the biggest fire weather day in the long term.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

All terminals near and north of I-40 should remain in a VFR category at least through 00Z with low ceilings keep terminals to the south in a MVFR category. There is a 30% probability for thunderstorms to initiate by 21Z across our terminals but most likely between 00-05Z when TEMPOs are in place. Low ceilings & reduced visibilities in rain showers could degrade some of our terminals to at least a MVFR category but can't rule out brief periods of IFR conditions. Surface winds will persist out of the south at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through 00Z, although could see gusty variable winds associated with the convective activity or even a storm outflow boundary making surface winds variable in direction. There will be a strong cold front pushing through after the storm activity between 08-14Z across all terminals but KDUA, which may not see the front/wind shift until near or after the end of this forecast period. Behind the cold front will be an abrupt north wind shift and very windy conditions with sustained winds around 20 kts and gusts between 30-40 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 54 64 35 63 / 60 10 0 0 Hobart OK 50 65 32 66 / 40 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 54 69 35 66 / 70 0 0 0 Gage OK 44 60 31 69 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 49 60 32 64 / 50 20 0 0 Durant OK 61 75 39 65 / 90 30 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004-005- 009>011-014>018-021>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>088.