textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Rain chances continue parts of area into Saturday.

- Cooler weather through the weekend.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Autumn weather is expected across Oklahoma and north Texas with abundant cloud cover, northerly winds, and scattered showers today.

A cold front currently located near the I-44 corridor will continue to advance southeastward through the morning hours. Patchy fog has developed early this morning ahead of the cold front, mainly across central into south-central Oklahoma. Saturated low levels from recent rainfall and high relative humidity combined with light surface winds are favoring fog formation across the area. Following the frontal passage, increasing northerly winds and a slightly drier air mass should result in improving visibilities

An elongated mid/upper-level trough axis remaining over the Southern Plains will bring scattered showers and widespread cloud cover to the region today. Precipitable water values will remain elevated today, ranging from ~1 inch across northern Oklahoma to ~2 inches across southeast Oklahoma into western north Texas. As a result, the highest chance for showers will be across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. With some elevated instability present, isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Brief, heavy rainfall is the primary hazard with any showers or thunderstorms today.

The northerly winds, abundant cloud cover/limited insolation, and scattered showers will result in temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Scattered showers will likely continue into tonight, especially across southeast Oklahoma. Coverage may even increase with isentropic ascent/warm air advection above the front. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s deg F. Parts of far northwest Oklahoma will get close to or perhaps even drop into the upper 40s deg F.

The mid/upper-level trough axis will remain entrenched across the Southern Plains once again on Saturday. Abundant cloud cover and light north winds will result in continued seasonable temperatures in the 70s to near 80 deg F. Scattered showers will also be possible once again, especially across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

By Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift to the southeast. Decreasing cloud cover will result in warmer weather with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s deg F.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Above-normal temperature and dry conditions are expected for the week ahead as the westerlies retreat to the north with a return to southerly winds. The temperature spread among bias-corrected probabilistic guidance is minimal with even the 10th percentile indicating above-normal temperatures from mid week and beyond. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate the potential for an elongated mid-level ridge being the dominant influence on our weather. High temperatures by the end of next week could be back near 90 deg F, which is ~15 deg F above-normal. The good news is with the lower sun angle, shorter days, and lower dew points, overnight temperatures will be comfortable (in the 50s and 60s deg F) next week.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Stratus producing very low ceilings will impact most of our terminals through the entire forecast period. Expecting terminals to be in an IFR to LIFR category at least through 16Z then perhaps improve to a MVFR category after 16Z at some terminals. The stratus/ceilings may scatter across far northern Oklahoma by 18Z with only terminals KPNC & KWWR improving to a VFR category at least through 07Z. Light rain to drizzle will persist across southeast Oklahoma further reducing visibilities at terminal KDUA down to 1 mile with ceilings falling below 500 ft at least through 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 70 56 73 59 / 20 20 30 0 Hobart OK 68 57 76 57 / 30 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 60 75 60 / 30 40 40 10 Gage OK 66 49 76 53 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 52 73 56 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 77 65 77 63 / 50 60 60 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.