textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Breezy southerly winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions across northwest Oklahoma today and Thursday.

- A more active pattern is expected to bring a return of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week into the middle of next week.

- Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain/flooding possible.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Another cool night with temperatures dropping into the 40s by Wednesday morning.

Models show an upper low moving along the Canadian/U.S. border with a shortwave moving across the northern Plains leading to NW/WNW flow aloft over the region. This system will drive a cold front south into KS before slowing down/stalling.

Meanwhile, pressure gradient is expected to strengthen across the area Wednesday leading to breezy southerly winds. The breezy winds combined with warm temperatures and dry fuels due to lack of or very little rainfall could lead to elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon in parts of NW/northern OK.

Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer this afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Models show showers/storms developing near the previously mentioned cold front in KS Wednesday afternoon/evening. With the NW/WNW flow aloft, these storms could drift SE into northern parts of the fa Wednesday evening/night before dissipating although chances are fairly low (15-30%). If any storms do move into the area, cloud to ground lightning will be possible which could also cause fire starts due to the dry fuels in parts of northern OK.

THURSDAY: Models are showing the upper pattern beginning to shift with more zonal flow over the region. At the sfc, gulf moisture begins to spread northward into the area as well with breezy southerly winds. Despite the increasing moisture, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again in parts of NW OK Thursday afternoon where the moisture will be later moving into that area and southerly winds will combine with warm temperatures (highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the fa) and dry fuels.

Models show a dryline developing west of the area Thursday afternoon. Showers/storms could develop near the dry and stationary front in KS Thursday afternoon/evening. This activity could then move into NW/northern parts of the fa late Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Some of these storms could become strong with gusty winds and small hail.

FRIDAY: Models show gulf moisture continuing to spread into the region. Meanwhile, the pattern continues to shift aloft as upper low/trough digs along the CA coast and weak SW flow begins to develop over the region. Models show the frontal boundary that is expected to be in KS for a few days to push south closer to the state line or possibly moving into northern OK on Friday. Shower/storm development will be possible near this front and a dryline to the west of the fa. This activity could then affect portions of the fa Friday and Friday night. WAA showers/storms will also be possible Friday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The pattern shift to SW flow aloft will continue leading to an active pattern over the weekend into the middle of next week with multiple disturbances possibly moving through the flow and the upper low eventually moving across the Plains.

Shower/storm chances will increase over the weekend and continue into the middle of next week. Currently, the highest chances are Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Strong to severe storms will be possible over the weekend into at least early next week. Locally heavy rain/flooding will also become an increasing concern, especially late this weekend into next week with multiple rounds of rain and increasing PWATs expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue.

South/southeast winds will veer slightly and become gusty this morning. These winds will back and weaken around sunset this evening. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is possible across northwest Oklahoma tonight.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 76 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 52 83 57 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 79 54 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 78 52 83 56 / 0 10 20 30 Ponca City OK 76 51 82 58 / 0 10 10 20 Durant OK 78 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.