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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 451 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected through next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A cool, Autumn morning is ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas with light winds, clear skies, and temperatures in the 50s and 60s deg F. Temperatures will continue to lower before sunrise with the potential for low-lying or sheltered areas in northern Oklahoma dropping into the upper 40s deg F.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected today following the departure of the upper-level trough that affected the region the last two days. With abundant sunshine this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 70s (northeast) to the mid 80s (southwest). The coolest weather will be across north central Oklahoma, which will be in closer proximity to the surface high in the Midwest.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A warming trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge and the return to southerly winds across the Southern Plains. Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the southeast edge of an elongated ~585 to 586 dam subtropical ridge. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s deg F with western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma in the low 90s deg F by Wednesday. These temperatures will be ~7 to 10 deg F above-normal for early October. Dry conditions will continue.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures and generally dry conditions will continue through next weekend. There remains high confidence that no significant cool down will occur, as indicated by minimal spread in bias-corrected probabilistic guidance through Sunday. Highs are forecast to remain in the 80s to low 90s deg F. There is only a low chance (15%) of showers/storms Friday across parts of western north Texas in association with an upper-level low in Texas.

There are some signs of a potential pattern change by early next week (October 13-15) among deterministic models and some ensemble members, which could drive a cold front southward into the Plains. As a result, the temperature spread increases markedly (~30 deg F) in probabilistic guidance with the potential for an appreciable cold front passage. Currently, there is a 20% (south) to 50% (north) chance of high temperatures below 75 deg F on Tuesday, October 13.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

All terminals should remain in a VFR category through the forecast period. There is a chance that fog could develop late in the forecast after 10Z across southern Oklahoma generally along the Red River between terminals KSPS & KLAW. Surface winds will generally be out of the north- northeast at 5-10 kts then going light & variable after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 87 55 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 82 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 78 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.