textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Rain tapers off this evening.

- Chilly this afternoon and Monday; slow warm-up thereafter.

- Low rain/storm chances return by the end of the week with a cold front expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1250 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The center of the upper low continues to track eastward just north of the Red River, with the moist conveyor belt largely to the east of the area but curling back into the northern side of the low across central OK. This is where the bulk of the remaining shower activity is located and expect this to shift slowly south and east through the remainder of the afternoon as the low tracks eastward and weakens. Elsewhere, scattered showers will also be possible across southwest OK into western north TX where very limited instability resides. Can't rule out a lightning strike or two in this area as well but expect this to be fairly isolated if it occurs.

Showers will diminish further this evening, but could see patchy drizzle linger into tonight given nearly saturated low-levels remaining in place (though lack of synoptic ascent through this layer may limit this development). With extensive cloud cover and moisture in place temperatures will hold fairly stead tonight within a few degrees of 40 in most areas.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1250 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Light winds below 850 mb will keep moisture within the lower levels of the atmosphere trapped over the region into the day on Monday. This means an extensive low cloud deck will be slow to dissipate through the day. Have therefore lowered high temperatures closer to the cooler end of guidance on Monday, with highs only in the 40s to low 50s expected across the western half of the area where clouds are expected to hang on the longest. Could also see patchy fog and/or occasional drizzle at times in these areas as well, especially Monday morning.

Clouds will erode further Monday night and with clearing skies and a moist ground will have to watch for fog potential, especially in central/southeast OK where winds are expected to be lightest. Increased sunshine and increasing southerly winds will allow for a modest warmup on Tuesday, with highs forecasted to rebound into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 101 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Warming temperatures through the week with low rain chances Thursday/Friday, then a more impactful frontal system possible over the weekend.

Discussion: The large-scale pattern will be dominated by southwesterly mid-level flow for multiple days during the middle/latter part of the week. We're moving well into the cool season now, so that flow regime will feature at least one and potentially more well-defined disturbances pushing through the Plains. At first, rain chances will be rather slim with those disturbances, as this current storm system will hinder efficient moisture return. Still, by late in the week, multiple days of return flow are likely to bring warmer temperatures in the 60s and 70s and greater boundary-layer moisture. Therefore, those same disturbances by Thursday and especially Friday will have a greater chance of leading to showers or storms.

Guidance continues to indicate a more forceful trough/ejection passage on either Saturday or Sunday. This trough will include a significant frontal passage and likely a chance of pre-or-post- frontal storms. Confidence in the exact evolution remains low, so stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Rain showers will continue for the eastern half of the area at least through the afternoon. This activity will end up shifting to the east slowly through the evening and overnight hours. IFR to LIFR conditions will persist through most of the period. VFR conditions will materialize from east to west starting in the morning hours. Easterly winds will gradually shift to the southeast by the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 42 53 40 61 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 42 50 43 59 / 40 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 43 53 43 63 / 30 0 0 0 Gage OK 35 51 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 39 55 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 58 39 66 / 50 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.