textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Elevated to near critical fire danger risk across parts of our area Friday afternoon.

- Elevated fire danger risk Saturday afternoon in southwest OK and western north TX.

- Dry with above to well above average temperatures expected through next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The main weather story for the rest of today will be the potential for near-critical fire weather primarily across western Oklahoma, though elevated fire weather is expected across much of the area.

Meteorological reasoning: Dry return flow is underway as surface pressure falls have been noted across northwest Oklahoma. Oklahoma/West Texas Mesonet observations show an axis of extremely dry (dewpoints 8-12) air being recycled north-northeast from Lubbock to about Dodge City. Some of the more mixing-friendly models suggest that this degree of dryness will eventually spread eastward toward I- 35. We don't want to discount that potential entirely, but with a fairly substantial deck of high cloud cover moving in off of the Front Range mountain wave, mixing does not look like it will be fully maximized today.

Even without that, RHs will end up as low as the mid-to-high teens this afternoon with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. That will support near-critical fire weather. No Red Flag Warnings have been issued in part due to the cloud cover limiting mixing and in part due to the still less-than-favorable fuelscape, but would expect any fires that develop today to be at least fairly punchy.

The other sensible weather impact will be the aforementioned wind gusts. Those will be strongest in the core of downslope winds whose eastern extent is still somewhat uncertain, as noted. Don't expect widespread gusts at or above Wind Advisory criteria, but maximum gusts for some sites out west today will likely reach 40+ mph.

Because of the breezy conditions, temperatures tonight will be much milder than they were last night. We will finally start seeing some not-bone-dry air returning up the I-35 corridor toward daybreak, but the LLJ/mechanical mixing will be strong enough that fog looks unlikely.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The U.S. will be under a remarkably zonal mid-latitude jet tomorrow. Despite that, a trough digging through southern Canada will trigger a frontal trough to develop from the mid-Mississippi Valley southwestward tomorrow morning. We'll see a transition to light northwest winds after daybreak, then a surge of gustier and drier winds later in the day. To the south of the front, "prefrontal torching" is expected. There is a little bit of uncertainty regarding just how far south the front suppressed that torch. Wherever that zone does end up (and right now our forecast is depicting most, if not all, of our western north Texas counties), highs will soar easily into the 70s.

Nature is giving us a day off from the windy whiplash effect on Sunday. We'll only have a light east breeze, and temperatures will only be a little above normal. During this current heatwave, that will be enough to qualify as a cooldown.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Models show the zonal upper pattern that will be over the region this weekend shifting next week as an upper ridge builds into the southern Plains. With this ridge, dry and well above average temperatures are expected next week. Temperatures are expected to be climbing into the 70s and 80s across the fa by the middle of next week. A moist airmass is also expected next week which will lead to humid conditions and overnight lows in the 50s possibly low 60s in at least parts of the fa next week as well. These temperatures (both highs and lows) will be 20 to 25 degrees above average for late December.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

LLWS remains the main concern tonight as the low level jet gets going at 40 to 50 knots around 1000-2000 ft AGL. Gusty south winds will continue through the afternoon, decreasing somewhat (but remaining breezy) overnight. Toward the end of the period, a front will move in bringing breezy northerly winds behind it.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 46 66 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 42 72 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 48 76 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 41 64 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 40 61 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 46 72 45 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.