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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 554 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Windy Sunday with near-critical to critical fire weather conditions.

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in the single digits and teens.

- Dry weather persists with near-record heat possible by the end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

South winds will increase this evening with a higher pressure gradient as a surface over northeastern Colorado deepens and moves into western Kansas. A cold front associated with this surface low will move into northwest Oklahoma after midnight tonight and continue moving southeast to somewhere near a Medford to Hollis line around sunrise.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Winds will become very strong behind the cold front as it continues to move southeast through the area. Winds at 850 mb are progged to be up to 50 to 55 knots in the northwest post-frontal flow so there will be opportunity for mixing down some gusts over 50 knots, especially in the western and central sections. With this, the High Wind Watch has been converted to a High Wind Warning. Wind gusts are not expected to be quite as high in southeastern Oklahoma and a Wind Advisory has been issued for this area.

Fire weather conditions will range from elevated to critical across the area with the very windy conditions and expected low humidity. Fuels will be receptive for wildfire spread, especially in the west where significant rainfall has been lacking recently. Portions of western Oklahoma have not an inch of rain over the last 60 days. The lowest humidity with minimum afternoon values below 20 percent are expected from west central Oklahoma south through the western part of north Texas. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for western north Texas and most of western and central Oklahoma for the potential of rapid wildfire spread. Blowing dust is also included in the weather grids with the strong, gusty winds and dry soil conditions.

Although chances are low, there is some potential for showers to develop Sunday afternoon affecting southeast Oklahoma along the front and north central Oklahoma near the trough axis. But the chance of convection will be highest to the east of our forecast area.

Winds will begin to decouple around sunset, although will remain relatively strong through the evening. The cold advection will continue with sub-freezing temperatures expected on Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be quite cool with high temperatures will below average, although this cool weather will be short lived.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The forecast for much of next week features quite the weather whiplash as we swing from a widespread hard freeze Monday morning to potentially record breaking heat by the end of the week as a large upper ridge expands its influence across the western and central US through the week. NBM continues to show some eye-popping temperatures for the end of next week into next weekend, with 90th percentile values (reasonable worst case) approaching 110 degrees across southwest OK and western north TX and over 100 degrees into central OK. The NBM mean isn't nearly this extreme, but would still be near all-time March records, as it shows several days of widespread 90+ degree temperatures and nearly 100 degrees across the southwest. Unfortunately, this pattern is highly unlikely to yield any significant precipitation chances for the next 7-10 days, which will only act to worsen ongoing drought and maintain the fire risk across the area.

Ware

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

All terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 08Z. Stratus may increase tonight across southeast Oklahoma with a potential lower ceiling over terminal KDUA after 08Z through 12Z degrading it to an IFR category. Some of this stratus may scatter or broken across east-central Oklahoma over terminals KOKC, KOUN, KSWO, and KPNC where confidence is only high enough for a TEMPO group at those 4 terminals. Surface winds will be backing south-southeast by 02Z until the arrival of a strong cold front. A strong low-level jet of 35-45 kts increasing out of the south could result in low-level wind shear conditions affecting all terminals by 06Z to prior to the cold front arrival.

The main issue impacting all of our terminals Sunday morning into the afternoon will be strong to potential severe wind gusts as a High Wind Warning will be in affect across all terminals but KDUA where a Wind Advisory will be in effect. These winds will increase behind a strong cold front that will be pushing down from the Central Plains and across our most of our terminals between 12-15Z eventually reaching terminal KDUA around 17Z. Behind this strong cold front, surface winds will be shifting north-northwest with sustained winds increasing 20-30 kts gusting 45-55 kts and this will persist well through the afternoon into 23Z. Have also added blowing dust for each terminal behind the front which could reduce visibilities down to 5-6 miles.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 56 64 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 52 61 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 62 70 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 52 19 51 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 60 21 44 / 0 20 0 0 Durant OK 62 73 30 49 / 0 10 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>030- 033>040-044-045.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>006- 009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ031-032- 041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.