textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Normal to above normal temperatures into the weekend.

- Light rain most likely with snow possible this morning.

- Fire danger conditions will be increasing toward the end of this week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 115 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

For this morning we have a 30-40% chance for "cold" rain generally west of I-35. Precipitation across far northwest Oklahoma could see a only brief changeover to rain/snow mix before ending around sunrise. Rain chances end across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas during early afternoon.

Currently a longwave upper trough is digging across the eastern two- thirds of the country with strong ridging building over the western U.S. The Southern Plains is west of the troughs axis with northwest flow aloft. Shortwave energy flowing downstream through the mid- levels is already making its way across the Central High Plains into northwest Oklahoma as the mid-levels continue to saturate, although drying in the lower levels is keeping it as virga for now. As the lower levels saturate and stronger energy/vort max comes through we'll start seeing precipitation reaching the ground. Down at the surface our coldest subfreezing air will be across northcentral Oklahoma where north winds will be advecting some reinforcing colder air originating from the U.S. Upper Midwestern Region. Based on the track of the mid-level system which is consistent with CAM's guidance, expecting precipitation to be well further west of I-35 across northern Oklahoma to closer to I-35 in central Oklahoma where temperatures may drop above to just freezing for a short time duration with mostly a "cold" rain as the dominant precipitation type during the morning hours. Cooler this afternoon from yesterday although temperatures will be seasonably normal for this time.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 115 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High surface pressure builds in tonight under clear night skies and light to calm variable winds strengthening radiational cooling with all of our forecast area going subfreezing mostly in the 20s. However Wednesday night should be our last really cold night for a while. Pressure heights start rising on Thursday as the upper ridge out west starts building in starting a multiple day warming trend. We will see unseasonably mild highs in the 60s for Thursday to 70s on Friday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Our warming trend peaks on Saturday with gusty south winds under the upper ridge axis with temperatures becoming near 20 degrees warmer than normal. Our ridging starts weakening Sunday as a Pacific trough starts digging and forming a subtropical jet with its upper low closing & cutting off over the Baja California Peninsula. Meanwhile a separate system in the polar jet moving through the Great Lakes Region will push a dry cold front across our area on Sunday. With only temperate Pacific air behind Sunday's front, will only see a cooldown of just a couple of degrees from Saturday. Our warming trend will extend into early next week but we may also see a "wet" trend due to the warm cutoff system expelling a series of shortwaves coming up from the south. Rain chances increase Monday through Tuesday before another cold front comes through. With increasing surface moisture coming up from Texas early next week can't rule out some destabilization & potential weak convection near our southern CWA. Guidance also differs with the evolution of the stalled system with a faster ECMWF solution lifting it into Texas and closer to us on Tuesday?

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Stratus is expanding southwestward from southeast Kansas. MVFR ceilings are expected at KPNC soon and this may expand toward KSWO later this morning.

Areas of light rain are moving south/southeast across western and central Oklahoma. Any precipitation is expected to be light.

North winds will increase this morning, then become light and generally west/northwesterly this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 52 31 65 41 / 30 0 0 0 Hobart OK 54 28 67 38 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 31 68 40 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 53 27 68 35 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 48 25 63 35 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 31 64 40 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.