textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Multi-hazard risk potential on Thursday; Severe weather possible east of a dryline, fire weather concern across portions of western Oklahoma.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues on Friday into the weekend; Multiple opportunities for strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The fog and drizzle this morning will continue to improve early this afternoon. However, the cloud cover is expected to stick around into tonight. The exception will be in western portions of the fa where clouds will decrease this afternoon before moving back in tonight. With the cloud cover, "cooler" (compared to the rest of the week) temperatures are expected again this afternoon with highs in the low/mid 70s except in those areas that get more sun in western portions of the fa.

Moisture will continue to spread north across the area today with dewpoints increasing into the 60s. There is a low chance for a few storms to develop near the dryline west of the fa later this afternoon. If these storms develop, they may move far enough east into far western portions of the fa this evening as they continue to weaken/dissipate. If a storm does move into the fa, gusty winds would be possible.

Warmer temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the 60s due to the higher dewpoints and cloud cover. Breezy southerly winds are also expected overnight especially in parts of western OK.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

THURSDAY: A multi-hazard risk is still expected on Thursday with fire weather and severe weather concerns.

Models show a mid-level disturbance potentially moving into the central Plains as the main upper trough shifts closer to the central U.S. Meanwhile, at the surface, a low is expected to develop in SW KS/NW OK/ OK Panhandle area by Thursday afternoon with a sharpening dryline extending southward across western portions of OK and north TX.

THURSDAY FIRE WEATHER: Dry air (min RH 5-10%) is expected to move into western portions of the fa behind the dryline. These low RHs along with breezy (15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) southwest winds, hot temperatures, and continued dry fuels are expected to lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas where vegetation is the driest/still hasn't greened up enough.

THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER: There is a risk for severe storms Thursday afternoon and night. However, the risk is conditional on storm development. Models show a moist, unstable airmass will be in place east of the dryline. However, there is a question on whether any storms can develop near the dryline Thursday afternoon/evening. Models show a cap will also be in place and with cloud cover expected tonight into at least Thursday morning, heating will be slower to occur. Unlike today, the clouds are expected to decrease from west to east across the whole area Thursday which will provide opportunity for some heating. However, how much heating is able to occur will be dependent on how quickly the clouds diminish. If enough heating and/or convergence along the dryline is able to develop then a storm or two could be possible. If a storm is able to develop, instability of 2500-3500 J/kg along with wind shear will make severe storms possible.

Several models/CAMs show the cap holding with no storm development in our area Thursday afternoon/evening. However, a few show at least one storm developing in the fa so something to still watch for but the question will definitely be whether the cap can be broken or not.

Meanwhile, north of the fa a cold front is expected to move across KS with storm development expected along the boundary. The outflow/effective front is expected to move into and across portions of the fa Thursday night. Showers/storms will be possible along this boundary as it continues to move south although models are showing the higher chances will be east of the fa. If this activity does move into the fa, then some of the storms could become strong to severe Thursday night.

FRIDAY: There is also a risk for severe storms on Friday although there is some uncertainty, especially with regards to area.

Models show the previously mentioned outflow boundary/effective front continuing to move south across the fa Friday morning before eventually stalling. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead of this boundary Friday afternoon/evening with a moist, unstable airmass south of the boundary. The potential area for a risk of severe storms Friday will be dependent on where this boundary finally slows down/stalls. Current model runs show the boundary making it to at least the I-44 corridor if not further south Friday afternoon. If the boundary does end up over portions of the fa, instability and shear will be sufficient for severe storms Friday afternoon/evening with large hail and damaging wind.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Saturday & Sunday: While episodes of severe convection are possible on both days during the upcoming weekend, significant uncertainty remains due to likely feedback on mesoscale factors from prior days activity, and timing/strength questions of synoptic features.

The spatial configuration of Saturday's risk area will be driven by how far south the aforementioned frontal boundary gets on late Friday evening prior to northward advance during the daytime. Additionally, synoptic forcing looks rather nebulous throughout the afternoon and evening, with evidence of neutral to perhaps slightly rising upper height tendency. Still, with sufficient instability and wind shear progged across the region, concern for scattered severe thunderstorms (posing a hail/wind/low tornado risk) remains during the afternoon through late evening period.

In a similar vein to Thursday, the risk for severe weather on Sunday looks to be one of "low probability yet high impact". A much more coherent and stronger upper system looks to quickly emerge from the Four Corners into the Southern Plains throughout the day, as a robust warm sector takes shape to the east of a dryline across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma and north Texas. Pattern recognition would argue that a robust severe weather episode is possible under this regime, generally centered near and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. However, a notable/strong EML ("cap") in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is again evident into the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, recent trends in global/ensemble guidance are for a slightly more delayed arrival of the main upper wave (i.e., synoptic ascent) into the evening hours. Still, an sustained thunderstorm in the current progged environment would support a risk of all severe weather hazards, including potentially very large hail and tornadoes.

We will likely transition to a brief period of drier/tamer weather early next week, as Sunday's weather system departs off to the east. More unsettled weather/renewed rain and storm chances look to return by the middle of next week.

Ungar

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low clouds with MVFR to IFR ceilings persist along and east of HWY-81 with only a few sites in western Oklahoma and western north Texas with VFR conditions that may return to MVFR late tonight. The clouds will break and ceilings will lift back to VFR by tomorrow afternoon at most sites (DUA may stay MVFR through the period). Expect breezy south winds to increase tomorrow afternoon to 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 64 81 61 82 / 0 10 20 10 Hobart OK 64 92 55 86 / 0 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 88 63 88 / 0 10 10 0 Gage OK 62 90 48 81 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 63 80 56 78 / 20 20 60 10 Durant OK 64 78 68 85 / 10 10 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005- 009-010-014-021-033.

TX...None.