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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Cool, seasonable temperatures are expected today a with widespread freeze tonight.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures coupled with breezy and dry conditions will bring a return to fire weather conditions Tuesday and late in the week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Clear skies prevail across much of the southern plains, while the main story across the country is the east coast storm. Surface pressure gradient has slightly decreased from yesterday, but is still strong enough to keep winds gusting to around 20-25 mph this afternoon. North winds continue to advect slightly drier dewpoints into Oklahoma, which continues to dry out already cured dormant grass.

Pressure gradient will relax a bit after sunset, leaving us with much of the same type of conditions as what we saw for early this morning. The end result will be relatively light winds, and another morning well below freezing.

Fox

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

While the past few days have been quite normal for February standards, it has felt quite cold because of an extremely warm start of the month. After one more close to normal Monday, the temperatures will begin to jump back into the 70s by Tuesday. Unfortunately, this means the winds will jump up as well, out of the southwest at 10-25 mph...and even a few higher gusts. See the fire weather section for a few more geeky details on the fire weather forecast conditions.

Fox

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

The warm, above-normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday as the downslope-warmed air mass remains in place across the Southern Plains. Probabilistic guidance (an ensemble of bias- corrected models) gives high confidence in this scenario given even the colder end of guidance (10th percentile) is ~15 deg F above the normal high temperatures for late February. High temperatures are generally expected to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s deg F, which is ~20 deg F above-normal.

Winds are expected to be lighter on Wednesday than on Tuesday given a weaker surface pressure gradient, which should temper the fire weather risk. However, relative humidity will still be low enough that locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible.

By Thursday, cooler weather is expected as a cold front is forecast to move through the area as a shortwave trough passes by the Great Lakes region. With most of the synopic-scale ascent passing to the northeast and limited moisture, the chance for rain with the front is low (20% or less). With respect to temperatures, the most likely scenario is above-normal temperatures continuing with the colder end of probabilistic guidance (10th percentile) indicating above-normal temperatures in the front's wake. As a result of no appreciable cool down, breezy northerly winds and a drier, post-frontal air mass will increase fire weather concerns once again Thursday afternoon.

Warmer weather will return by Friday as southerly winds return with lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. Another dry return flow (DRF) situation is possible Friday afternoon with at least elevated fire weather conditions.

Forecast uncertainty increases markedly by next weekend as various deterministic models and ensemble members indicate the potential for a strong cold front in close proximity to the Southern Plains. As a result, probabilistic guidance has an ~50 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentile. For now, the forecast trends cooler late Saturday into Sunday with the potential to trend even colder if the aforementioned front is stronger.

Mahale

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the upcoming period. After an overnight of light northeasterly surface winds, a return towards a more dominant south-southeasterly direction is expected on Monday. Occasional gusts >20 kts are also forecast across western Oklahoma as a surface pressure gradient sharpens into the afternoon.

Low-level wind shear will become a concern after 03 UTC/Tuesday, as a strong low-level jet core develops and spread eastward across the area. Outside of KWWR, this concern should remain limited until after the end of the current valid period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Tuesday and Thursday are the main days to watch for fire weather, although Friday and Saturday won't be too far behind.

For Tuesday:

Temperatures jump back into the 70s, and will be close to 80 in western north Texas, as well as near the 100th meridian. Winds will increase to 20 mph sustained, with gusts over 35...again in the western third of our area. ERC percentiles are forecast to be in the 80th to 90th percentile, once again bringing at least elevated fire conditions. Will this Tuesday be like a week ago? No. The winds won't be as strong and the dewpoints were much lower than a week ago. Despite the favorable comparison to last week, this Tuesday will be concerning.

Some differences from a week ago:

- the low level thermal ridge and strongest winds won't line up over each other like they did on the 17th - the jet stream will be much weaker on Tuesday than what we saw on the 17th

For Thursday - Saturday: Temperatures remain warm, although slightly "cooler" than Tuesday, and well above normal for late February. However, the winds will have shifted direction by then, advecting drier air into the picture. While there could be a scattered shower or two late Wednesday that may help, the amounts and/or limited coverage won't be enough to spare the western third once again Thursday.

ERC values will be in the 85-95th percentiles on Thursday, with slightly lower wind speeds. Either way, this will bring at least elevated conditions on Thursday. What we will be watching for is the timing of that next cold front, as the timing will cause a few issues if the current forecast (of the wind shift) is off by more than about 3-4 hours.

The GEFS CIPS analogs also hint at this, as the ensemble output has most of its members with a higher potential for fire weather conditions as compared to the GFS deterministic run.

Fox

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 23 54 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 23 57 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 27 60 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 22 60 36 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 20 50 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 28 55 37 71 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.