textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Oklahoma.

- Hot & muggy conditions this upcoming week with heat indices near to above triple digits each day.

- More active period of showers and thunderstorms expected late this week through the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Another hot day is expected. Dewpoints held on yesterday through the day which produced high heat index values. There may be a little more mixing of dewpoints today being a day removed from the rainfall of this weekend, but dewpoints are still expected to remain high enough to push heat index values to or above 105 in portions of the wheat belt of northern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory has been issued for north central Oklahoma.

As far as storms, attention turned to a surface boundary expected to extend from western Kansas through the western Oklahoma panhandle into eastern New Mexico. Storms are expected to form along this boundary this afternoon and spread east through the evening. Much of the convection may remain northwest of the forecast area but there is enough potential of these storms moving into northwest Oklahoma this evening that will include the chance of storms in the forecast. If storms do move into the area, severe weather will be possible. Wind will be the primary threat as hot temperatures will allow dew point depressions to reach 30-35 degrees, and this relatively dry air near the surface will allow acceleration of thunderstorm downdraft winds.

Another potential issue will be the outflow boundary that is currently moving into northern Oklahoma from the storm complex that moved through central Kansas. This boundary could serve at the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. There are still some uncertainties with this about if the boundary will wash out through the day, or where it will be located by mid to late afternoon. With these uncertainties, have not introduced storm chances across northern Oklahoma other than what was described above, but will be watching for this potential today.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Storm chances will persist into the evening hours in northwest Oklahoma from the expected afternoon development, but storms are expected to decrease with time with diurnal stabilization, although the GFS continues to show a QPF signal into the early morning hours. This solution is the outlier with other synoptic models and CAMs not keeping convection after midnight, so will keep POPs confined to hours before 06Z overnight.

A wave in the west-southwesterly flow aloft approaches the central/southern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening and again storms may develop in or near northwestern Oklahoma. The strongest signal for storms remains north in Kansas, but there is still decent potential in northwest and perhaps even north central and west central Oklahoma per the NAM and some of the CAMs. Again, severe storms will be possible with both hail and wind as a threat. Temperaturewise, another hot day is expected on Wednesday with triple digit temperatures expected in the wheat belt, and triple digit heat index values over much of the area.

As an upper-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface boundary will move into Oklahoma. This will provide a focus for showers and storms. Storms will likely develop in the afternoon and become more widespread through the evening.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The surface boundary is projected to remain in the area Friday and provide a focus for continued storm development. An upper trough in the northwestern United States deepens and expands this weekend as it moves toward the Plains and pushes another front down the Plains. The operational medium-range models differ a little bit on the specific evolution and therefore timing of the cold front and best precipitation chances, but in general all suggest an active weather pattern for rain chances continued through at least the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Outside of periodic MVFR category at KDUA initially (due to low cigs), VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming period. A south wind will remain gusty into this evening, especially for western Oklahoma terminals.

There is a very low (<20%) chance of thunderstorm impact at KWWR later this evening - after 22 UTC - as activity moves eastward from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. For now, have opted to leave out explicit mention due to low confidence in impact.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 93 76 94 78 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 95 75 98 78 / 0 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 95 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 99 76 102 79 / 10 20 20 20 Ponca City OK 94 77 95 79 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 91 78 92 79 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020.

TX...None.