textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Hot and dry conditions persist.

- Fire weather will continue to be a concern with the ongoing drought and dry fuels.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A summertime subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern Plains today. Afternoon high temperatures will be similar to yesterday and range from ~100 to 107 deg F, which is around 10 to 15 degrees above-normal for late August.

Breezy south to south-southwest winds will occur northwest of I-44 this afternoon with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. These winds, combined with relative humidity falling to near or just below 20% from the hot temperatures, will result in elevated fire weather conditions once again across western Oklahoma into portions of central Oklahoma and western north Texas. The total fire environment will remain susceptible to initial attack to low- end large wildfires with the ongoing drought and very dry fuels (i.e., Energy Release Component [ERC] percentiles >90th percentile). Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) was issued for this afternoon into the early evening.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The center of the subtropical ridge may shift slightly toward the Midwest by Monday and Tuesday. However, the ridge will remain the primary influence on the weather across the Southern Plains with a strong low-level thermal ridge persisting across the region.

High temperatures will remain above-normal and generally range from the upper 90s to 105 deg F. Southerly winds are forecast to relax slightly with a weaker surface pressure gradient. However, given the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the environment still will be susceptible to initial attack wildfires.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The hot and dry conditions will continue through at least the end of the week with deterministic and ensemble NWP in agreement the subtropical ridge will continue to be the primary influence of our weather. High temperatures will continue to range from the upper 90s to the mid 100s deg F. With the ongoing drought and dry fuels, fire weather will also continue to be a concern.

Ensemble spread does begin to increase by the Labor Day weekend with some members indicating the ridge may retrograde to the west to allow a backdoor cold front to be in close proximity with less hot weather. For example, the probabilistic National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast has around an 8 to 15 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th percentile temperatures on Labor Day. The 10th percentile temperature forecast is in the upper 80s (north) to upper 90s (south) deg F. However, the more likely scenario as of now is that the heat wave will continue.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions with some mid/high clouds. Winds will shift to the S and SW becoming breezy. Winds will then back to the S and SE this evening with a slight decrease in speed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 102 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 104 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 103 75 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 104 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 102 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-017>020.

TX...None.