textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

- Hot and dry this week with daily heat headlines likely.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

What is left of the upper low will maintain some of its identity across southwest Texas today. As an extension of that low there is a weakness at 500mb that stretches up into north Texas and Oklahoma. There may be just enough forcing along with anomalously high PWATs to get widely scattered activity across the area this afternoon. Will blanket much, if not all the area with a 15-20% chance of a shower and thunderstorm during the afternoon. Similar to days before, much of the activity will be diurnally driven and is expected to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.

Otherwise, warming trend continues today with middle to upper 90s with a few locations possibly hitting triple digits. These temperatures along with dewpoints still in the middle and upper 60s and lower 70s will put the afternoon heat indices into the triple digits this afternoon. However, should remain below advisory criteria today. Exception could be far southeast Oklahoma where they could get close. Will be an area to monitor during the day today.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Upper ridge centered over the central Rockies will begin to build out into the central and southern Plains Monday. As this occurs, any influence from what is left of the west Texas upper low gets push further south and west during the day. This will provide much more sunshine to the area Monday than what has been seen the last several days.

Meanwhile, veered low level flow will advect warmer air off the higher terrain to our west with resulting temperatures ranging from the middle 90s to lower 100s. Portions of north-central and southeast Oklahoma may see afternoon heat indices near advisory level (around 105).

Heights continue to rise into the day Tuesday as the center of the upper high begins to translate eastward into the High Plains and central and southern Plains. Low level winds continue to veer and are almost from due west early in the day before relaxing and going light and variable across much of the area during the afternoon Tuesday. This will occur ahead of a surface cold front that will approach northern Oklahoma late in the day. Pre-frontal strengthening thermal ridge will make for one of the hottest days of the year Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will range from near 100 to 107 degrees and although dewpoints will be lower, still anticipate afternoon heat indices in the 103-110 range. Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The cold front will slide toward the I-40 corridor by late Wednesday, but any cooling looks to remain confined to northern Oklahoma where some locations across north central Oklahoma will see highs in the middle 90s compared to low 100s elsewhere. Again heat advisory level heat indices are expected to the south of the boundary across much of central into southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Front will lift back north early Thursday with breezy south winds returning to the area. From this point through at least Saturday and likely longer, the upper ridge, centered nearly directly overhead, remains in control with no real signal for any additional chances of precip. Highs will remain well above normal with daily heat headlines likely needed into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Other than very low (15-20%) chances for an isolated shower or storm through the day, dry conditions and VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail through the period. Generally light south winds are expected, veering slightly after midnight tonight to become SSW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 94 75 98 77 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 95 73 98 75 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 95 73 98 75 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 95 72 98 74 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 94 76 98 78 / 20 0 0 0 Durant OK 96 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.