textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Record heat likely into the weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures likely.

- Fire risk continues Saturday & Sunday with the highest risk on Sunday near and behind a front. - Hotter temperatures returning on Tuesday through the next 7 days along with no rain chances.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Today's headlines will be heat with near elevated fire weather.

Temperatures continue to rise under the influence of the strengthening upper high in the southwest CONUS. This afternoon's highs will be another 2-5 degrees higher then yesterday, putting us firmly into the 90s (upper 90s for southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas) under clear skies with light winds.

For fire concerns, minimum RH values will fall into the low to mid teens (with some single digits possible). This combined with ERCs near the 90th percentile will result in some fire weather concerns mitigated by light winds. A surface trough will again bring brief westerly to northerly winds to parts of northern and western Oklahoma, though one should expect considerable variability in wind direction across the forecast area. Additionally, winds behind the surface trough (in northwest Oklahoma) may nudge up into the 10 to 15 mph range during the afternoon (allowing for brief elevated RFTIs).

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Fire weather ramps up Saturday and Sunday. Saturday's RH values will look similar to previous days (low to mid teens with some single digits possible), but winds may be a bit more breezy. Northwest Oklahoma is showing a weak low level jet, and western Oklahoma / western north Texas will have decent mixing conditions (clear skies with a slight southwest component to winds). This will allow for a broader, more persistent area of elevated RFTIs on Saturday. The Fire Weather Watch has been expanded into parts of western north Texas.

A front will approach the area Sunday, bringing pre-frontal torching and wind shift to northerly. Winds are expected to be gusty on both sides of the front. This will combine with low RH values (low to mid teens) to produce near critical to critical fire weather. Locally more extreme conditions will be possible along the LLTR axis (currently forecast roughly along the I-44 corridor).

Those managing prescribed burns will want to pay close attention to the escalating conditions this weekend, especially as the sudden and strong wind shift on Sunday will exacerbate any ongoing fires.

Heat will also continue to escalate with temperatures rising into the mid 90s to near 100 on Saturday, then potentially a degree or two warmer on Sunday ahead of the front. Temperatures behind the front will still rise into the 80s. Though none of this meets heat advisory criteria, this is unusual heat for this time of year and heat-sensitive persons should take appropriate precautions.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Our shallow Canadian air mass will start to weaken on Monday as its surface high shifts to the U.S. Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region providing some short-term relief from the heat with more mild 70s highs and a cooler night. Gusty southwest winds return Tuesday bringing a hotter and drier air mass from western & northern Texas into our area. Much warmer on Tuesday with highs in the 80s to hot across our southwest into the lower 90s. Our zonal flow aloft starts shifting northwest with increasing pressure heights as a ridge starts building across the Southwestern U.S. Our heating trend will continue at least through Thursday as the upper ridge expands further eastward across the Southern U.S. A weather system tracking eastward somewhere between the U.S. Great Lakes and Canadian province of Ontario may push a cold front through our area late Thursday with another potential of cooler shallow Canadian air behind it for the end of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. A tighter pressure gradient across southeast Oklahoma will veer surface winds at terminal KDUA from south to southwest at 10 kts gusting to 15 kts by 15Z the backing south by 20Z to 10 kts. A weaker pressure gradient across all of our remaining terminals will keep surface winds light & variable until the arrival of a very slow pushing surface trough between 18-04Z. Behind the surface trough winds will increase out of the north around 5-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 94 57 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 96 53 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 95 56 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 93 51 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 91 53 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 89 60 91 65 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ083>085-087.