textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- There are risks for severe thunderstorm across parts of our area through Tuesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of western Oklahoma into western north Texas on Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- Very warm temperatures are expected through Monday with cooler weather by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Slightly higher chances for strong to severe storms today (both along the dryline and in an area of warm air advection in southeast Oklahoma), with elevated to critical fire weather in our far northwest and gusty winds areawide.

Storms: We'll be watching two main focus areas for storms this afternoon and evening. The first (that we've been talking about the last several days) is the dryline out west. Upper forcing is displaced to our north, so we'll see the highest chances in northwest Oklahoma with lower chances as you progress southward. Any storms that form late this afternoon / early evening will pose a risk for hail, damaging winds, and a low risk for tornadoes as they move eastward through the state. An increasing low level jet will help to sustain storms into the night. That said, these storms are not a guarantee as capping will keep our chances low (20-30% for any given point). If we get enough storm coverage, there will be a tendency toward upscale growth through the evening.

The second area that we're watching is southeast Oklahoma. A few CAMs are becoming a bit more aggressive with showing warm air advection driven showers and storms in this area. Uncertainties abound as to whether these storms will stay elevated (mainly a hail threat) or will become surface based (which could carry some tornado risk). Of those models that do convect (mainly a few runs of the HRRR and REFS), most keep storms on or just outside the southeast periphery of our forecast area. Of course, this is all dependent on whether we can get enough forcing to overcome the cap in the first place.

Fire Wx: Today's fire weather risk will be focused in northwest Oklahoma where gusty south winds (20 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph) and low RH values (teens) will combine over volatile fuels (90-95th percentile) producing critical fire danger conditions. There will be a sharp gradient in humidity from far northwest Harper county (potentially as low as 10 percent) to the southern and eastern portions of the Red Flag warning (25 to 35 percent) depending on how far the dryline bulge impinges on northwest Oklahoma.

Wind: Gusty south winds will continue today due to a tight surface pressure with wind gusts between 30 to 45 mph across most locations. The exception will be southeast/east central Oklahoma, where wind gusts will be a littler lower at 20 to 30 mph.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Fire weather, severe storm potential, and gusty winds continue into Monday.

Storms: Similar setup on Monday (as compared to Sunday), but with the upper wave a bit closer. We'll be watching the same two areas again (northwest dryline development and southeast warm air advection) with similar uncertainties and hazards.

Higher chances for storms will arrive with the cold front Monday night. The front will arrive in northwest Oklahoma late Monday evening (most likely between 9pm and midnight) with storms developing southwest from Kansas down the line. These storms will have strong to severe potential as they race southeastward.

Fire Wx: Monday's fire risk will depend partly on the location of the dryline, with models continuing to trend slightly westward with its placement. There's higher confidence in the wind contribution to RFTI, but RH will play a factor in whether that is capped. With lower overall confidence, issuing a fire weather watch for now.

Wind: Gusty southerly winds will continue through through Monday, with 40-45 mph gusts again possible across northern, western, and parts of central Oklahoma. Issuing another wind advisory for this period.

Behind the cold front, Tuesday will be cooler (highs in the 70s and 80s). With the cooler temperatures and decreasing winds (initially breezy in the morning), we'll finally get a break from fire weather. Storm chances will continue near the front as it progresses southward through the day, including a risk for strong to severe storms.

Day

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to persist across the Southern Plains with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday as another wave approaches. The risk for severe weather is much lower during this period with a cooler, post-frontal air mass in the area.

At least low chances for rain will continue through Saturday with a weakness/troughiness remaining in place across the area. This will keep temperatures near to even slightly below normal.

Mahale

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to improve with mainly VFR conditions expected this afternoon into this evening. A low chance for storms exists this evening, but chances were too low at most sites to mention except at KWWR and KDUA. MVFR ceilings are expected to return early Monday morning as low stratus redevelops. Low level wind shear is also expected once again after midnight at many sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 71 86 61 72 / 10 30 60 40 Hobart OK 69 92 60 76 / 20 30 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 71 91 67 82 / 10 30 40 50 Gage OK 68 94 48 74 / 20 20 20 0 Ponca City OK 73 89 58 72 / 20 10 80 10 Durant OK 74 88 73 83 / 30 20 30 80

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013-015>018- 022>024-035.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004>027- 034>038.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034-036.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for TXZ083-084.