textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon/evening near and north of a cold front, with a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts.

- Occasionally elevated fire weather as fuels remain very dry across the area.

- Dangerous heat continues in the south today, and throughout the area through the week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Outflow from morning convection has more or less combined with the remnant frontal boundary now draped across portions of central OK as of early this afternoon. An MCV was also noted on satellite/ radar across north-central OK where a few showers have persisted. Weak convergence along the frontal/outflow boundary, along with strong heating, will serve as the focus for isolated shower and storm development later this afternoon and evening. With inverted-V forecast soundings, expect a similar pattern to yesterday with the strongest storms capable of damaging downburst winds and brief heavy rain. Storms are expected to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The front is expected to dissipate Tuesday as surface pressure falls to our west and north bring a return of south/southwest winds to the region. The downslope wind component and lack of appreciable cloud cover will help temperatures soar on Tuesday, with widespread 105+ air temperatures expected across the area, with some locations likely approaching 110 degrees. These hot and dry conditions, along with modest southwest wind speeds, will create elevated fire conditions across much of western OK, though the risk for fire starts remains high across most of the rest of the area as well with such dry fuels in place. There is a weak signal in the CAMs that isolated showers or storms could pop up across portions of southeast through north-central OK as convective temperatures are reached Tuesday afternoon, but high cloud bases and dry near- surface air will likely keep rainfall amounts at the surface very light if this activity develops.

Very hot temperatures will continue into the day on Wednesday, with 105+ temperatures likely once again for parts of the area. However, models have gotten a little more aggressive with the southward progress of a cold front into our northern OK counties (bringing potential for slight heat relief), but much of the front's progress will likely hinge on convective outflow from storms across KS Tuesday night. The front could also bring another shot at some rain for these areas, with 20-30% PoPs in place, mainly Wednesday evening and overnight.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The pattern shift we have been seeing in the model forecasts continues to show some consistency in the latest model runs with the upper ridge establishing itself more in the intermountain west and northwest flow developing over the Central Plains between the ridge and troughing expected in the Great Lakes/Mid-Mississippi Valley. With this pattern, the potential increases of getting a cold front to slide down from the Central Plains into the forecast area. But the question will be, how much cooler will it be north of the front given that the surface ridge and the best cold air advection will be to the northeast of here pushing more toward the Ohio Valley. NBM suggests highs may be in the mid-upper 90s in northern Oklahoma on Thursday and Friday, which granted will be some relief from the 104-110 highs we expect in the north on Tuesday and Wednesday, but will still be warmer than average for this time of year. Farther south the forecast reduction in high temperatures will likely not be as significant.

Then, the ridge starts building back over the Southern Plains this weekend and we are back to the areawide triple digit heat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, outside of the possibility of thunderstorm-induced MVFR ceilings this evening. Any thunderstorms that develop this evening will have the potential for strong winds. Winds will veer back to the south by the morning hours, and will become southwesterly by the early afternoon at most sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 105 79 106 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 75 107 78 108 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 107 79 107 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 105 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 72 106 78 103 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 107 80 106 / 20 10 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ007- 008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-036>048- 050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.