textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Above normal temperatures through next week.

- Higher rain chances return to northwestern areas early next week. Little to no rain expected in the southeast.

- Rain chances increase again towards the end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Elevated convection has developed just northwest of the forecast area early this morning extending from near Perryton through Beaver County Oklahoma up toward Dodge City and Hays KS. Looking at observed and model soundings, the moisture in this area is around 500 mb with quite a bit of dry air below. KDDC reporting no clouds at 12,000 feet or lower while underneath these echoes also indicate very high-based showers with rain likely evaporating as virga well before reaching the ground. Even if this area of radar echoes shifts eastward over the area, the potential for measurable precipitation is very low (5 percent or less).

The upper ridge remains entrenched from south central Texas to southeastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks with southwesterly flow aloft between this ridge and the cut off low over the California/ Arizona/Nevada border region. The primary precipitation band will remain well west of the forecast area, although we will see some increasing mid and high level clouds. Highs today may be a little lower across western Oklahoma today with the clouds as well as the upper ridge shifting slightly east, but high temperatures elsewhere will be similar to yesterday.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As has often been the case over the last few months, once we get closer to an event the models trends are later arrival of precipitation chances and lower (in general) precipitation chances. The 00Z models now open up the closed low over the southwestern United States and swing the trough northwest toward the Dakotas as opposed to the upper Mississippi Valley that yesterday's runs showed. The 00Z operational NAM and GFS models keep the entire QPF signal west and northwest of the forecast area through 9Z Monday and confine the QPF to the northwest with the first wave through Monday. The ECMWF does have QPF over the northwest corner a little earlier, but also does not extend rain chances very far southeast.

The models show another chance of precipitation Monday night with a secondary wave approaching from the southwest. The development and evolution of this secondary wave is a bit unclear with it seemingly developing over the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains in Mexico on Sunday night/Monday. If this wave develops as projected, it will bring precipitation chances to the northwest half of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday as this wave approaches and moves over the area. But even with this, rain chances appear unlikely in areas south of the Interstate 44 corridor through Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

If we do see this secondary wave Monday Night/Tuesday, it is projected to move east of the area late Tuesday pushing the precipitation chances northeast of the area.

There is now more consistent signal between the operational GFS and ECMWF of a large-scale trough developing across the western United States late this week, and ensemble cluster analysis only shows roughly a 13 percent chance of upper-level ridging from southwest Texas to the Intermountain West that yesterday's 00Z operational ECMWF run showed. So it is much more likely that we will be in a pattern with southwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation chances increase late this week with the arrival of low-level moisture from the Gulf and any shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft, however the timing of the best chances of showers and storms will be a little uncertain as it will depend on timing of individual shortwaves which are difficult to resolve this far in advance.

Afternoon highs will remain above average for this time of year as autumn-like air remains locked in the northwestern United States and western Canada through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail with scattered to broken cirrus. For the most part, light southeast winds are expected over the next several hours. By mid-morning Saturday, winds veer more to the south with moderately gusty winds anticipated across northern and western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 79 59 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 79 60 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 60 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 78 56 76 55 / 10 0 20 40 Ponca City OK 80 56 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 84 57 81 54 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.