textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- A few strong to severe storms could be possible into tonight mainly across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing rain and storm chances return again mid-week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Two MCVs are moving across the area today. One MCV has been moving across the fa all morning and was centered near Osage county around mid-day. Another smaller MCV has developed near the OK/KS border and was over Alfalfa county at mid-day as well. The MCVs has continued shower and some thunderstorm development across portions of the fa this morning. The MCVs are expected to move east across the area this afternoon, although the larger one has slowed down compared to earlier this morning. The MCVs will help maintain shower/storm chances across northern and eastern portions of the fa through the afternoon.

Some of the CAMs show some new scattered storm development possible in NW portions of the fa near an outflow boundary this afternoon. There is some uncertainty whether activity will develop into NW portions of the fa due to the affects from the morning activity and how much recovery can occur. However, there has been some clearing in this area allowing for heating and radar shows a storm has developed near this boundary in the eastern TX panhandle. Instability of 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible in this area so if these storms do develop into the area, they could become strong to maybe severe.

Later this afternoon, models also show storms developing in the High Plains of west TX and NM. This activity is expected to move E and SE and could eventually move into western/southwestern portions of the fa later this evening/overnight. With the lack of a strong LLJ to help maintain development, this activity is expected to be weakening as it moves into the area but a few storms could still be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The showers/storms are expected to end/move out of the fa late tonight/early Sunday.

Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will then fall into the 50s and 60s tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A brief dry period is expected for most of the area Sunday and Monday. Models show an upper low meandering across TX during this time before lifting north towards the fa Monday night. This will keep rain chances out of much of the fa until the upper low moves closer although if the low tracks closer to the fa than models are showing some rain chances would be possible across southern portions of the fa.

Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average across the area both Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after developing along the higher terrain to the west.

However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and storms chances could continue through next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming period. Chances for scattered rain/thunder will persist through this evening across northern Oklahoma, especially at KWWR & KPNC. Another round of (likely decaying) activity is expected to arrive late tonight/early Sunday and offer potential for brief category reductions near and south of the Red River.

Also monitoring increasing potential for areas of stratus and/or fog across the eastern one-half of Oklahoma during the predawn hours on Sunday. For now, have only included reduced category (MVFR) at KDUA during this time, though expansion in time/space is possible at later updates.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 84 61 86 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 62 84 62 85 / 40 10 0 0 Gage OK 55 83 60 86 / 30 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 59 81 61 84 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 66 82 66 83 / 20 10 10 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.