textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Flood Watch in effect for southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning.

- Strong to severe storms possible this morning.

- Strong to severe storms possible late Sunday afternoon and evening.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Warm air advection/isentropic ascent has resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas as the warm conveyer belt aloft rotates to the north and east of the surface low. Thunderstorm coverage should continue to increase with the potential for one or two clusters of thunderstorms that will generally move to the east- northeast this morning.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be potential hazard given precipitable water values are progged to >2" near and south of the Red River. A Flood Watch remains in effect for southwest/south central Oklahoma and western north Texas. Large hail is also a potential hazard given a large amount of elevated instability (i.e., MUCAPE ~3000 to 4000 J/kg) and the amount of instability in the hail growth zone (i.e., ~1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE in the -10 to -30 deg C layer). The risk of damaging wind gusts is a bit more limited given these storms are generally elevated. However, for locations across western North Texas, there is some risk of damaging wind gusts given the close proximity to the diffuse surface boundary. Finally, these thunderstorms are also producing quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning.

Thunderstorms should generally move out of the area by early to mid afternoon with decreasing cloud cover from northwest to southeast. Below-normal temperatures are expected in the storms' wake with highs only in the low to mid 80s deg F.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

There is low chance of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning in association with weak isentropic ascent. Otherwise, most locations will likely remain dry during the day Saturday. More sunshine and a return to southerly winds will result in warmer weather with high ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s deg F.

An MCS (mesoscale convective system) will likely develop across the Central Plains Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The remnants of this complex may impact northern Oklahoma Saturday night/early Sunday morning; however, the most intense part will likely remain in Kansas.

Hot weather returns Sunday afternoon as the low-level thermal ridge strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures will be back into the mid 90s to low 100s deg F with heat index values above 105 deg F. Breezy southerly winds should help temper the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT).

By late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a cold front is forecast to advance into northern Oklahoma. A highly unstable air mass is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front with ~3000 to 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 knots of effective bulk shear. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible near the cold front. However, some model guidance is showing a tendency toward anafrontal structure, which would limit the magnitude of the severe weather risk.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Northwest to west-northwest flow will continue to persist across the Southern Plains as a ~596+ dam mid-level ridge remains entrenched across the southwest U.S. With northwest flow aloft, an active weather pattern will continue into next week with ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms as MCSs and/or effective cold fronts advance southward. As a result, temperatures should remain in check (i.e., not become too hot) next week. Generally seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures are expected.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

An area of thunderstorms is moving eastward across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma this morning. Along with variable winds, this is causing fluctuations in ceilings and visibilities. This activity will end by about noon, as will the MVFR ceilings in its wake. Storm chances look to be less tonight. However, the development of stratus and/or fog looks likely with all of the moisture in place. It remains to be seen just how low the ceilings get, though 1,000 feet seems like a reasonable first forecast.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 82 70 87 74 / 40 20 20 10 Hobart OK 84 68 90 73 / 40 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 85 70 91 74 / 60 20 20 0 Gage OK 84 67 90 74 / 20 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 83 69 86 74 / 10 20 20 40 Durant OK 84 73 89 76 / 80 30 30 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ036>041-044>046- 050.

TX...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>090.