textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 137 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low confidence on details.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Sensible conditions this afternoon and evening will continue to run "a month behind" (i.e., more akin to late September), with peak temperature readings running in the low-80s areawide. A modest pressure gradient and lingering low-level jet feature (combined with mostly clear skies) will yield a gusty southwest wind across western Oklahoma, with occasional gusts up to 35 mph expected.

We will remain dry today and tonight, with weak quasi-zonal flow and rising mid-level heights across the region. In addition to scattered daytime cumulus across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, density of high clouds will increase into Thursday morning as the subtropical jet begins to strengthen and lift northward.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

We look to ease into a more active pattern beginning on Thursday evening that continues into the upcoming weekend. Despite increasing clouds and potential for widely scattered precipitation cores prior to sunset, temperatures will remain +10-20 (in the low-80s) compared to normal for the closing days of October.

As the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Vance move northward from northern Mexico into West Texas on Thursday into Friday, precipitation chances will return in earnest across the area. Highest/most persistent coverage is expected after sunrise on Friday across western-north Texas and the western one-half of Oklahoma.

Overall impacts continue to point towards the lower end of the envelope with this activity, with widespread rainfall totals of ~0.5- 1.5 inches currently forecast west of the Interstate 35 corridor by sunset Friday. The progressive nature of the compact/weakening mid- level system should limit concern for heavy rainfall, though with an influx of notable (~90th percentile) precipitable water values, localized heavy rainfall (>2 inches) is possible across western Oklahoma.

Meager instability may be enough to yield occasional lightning strikes with heavy cores, though strong-severe storm concern is very low (to nil) late this week.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Forcing is expected to weaken Saturday as the wave moves eastward, but the general trend has been towards a bit slower exit for precipitation chances Saturday, with rain showers potentially lasting into the afternoon or early evening across central and north-central OK. Once again lightning potential appears low. Storm-total rainfall amounts are likely to exceed an inch across portions of western OK and western north TX where NBM is still highlighting over 60-70% probabilities of this amount, with probabilities of exceeding an inch of rain quickly dropping to 10-20% along and east of I-35 where totals closer to 0.5-0.75" are expected to be more common.

Drier conditions are forecast Saturday night into much of the day on Sunday but will not last long as another system is slated to move in rather quickly behind this one. Models are still struggling to resolve the details of this system as energy from the northern and southern streams attempts to phase over the central US. Depending on how the two streams interact will determine the track and amplitude of the system as it moves across the area early next week. The more amplified solutions would bring a risk for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall to portions of the area, while other solutions show extensive dry-slotting and much lower rainfall totals. No clear favorite is evident in the ensemble members at the moment leading to rather low forecast confidence during this period, though for now the period of greatest potential impact appears to be centered around Monday. Cooler temperatures are then forecast to move in behind this system, bringing at least a brief break from our above average stretch by the middle of next week.

Ware

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Broken stratus producing low ceilings will linger across western Oklahoma in the vicinity of KCSM so will keep a TEMPO for a potential MVFR category through 21Z at that terminal. Otherwise all of our remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain south surface winds around 10-15 kts with 20-25 kt gusts across some of our terminals. Surface winds should back slightly south-southeast by 00Z with decreasing winds speeds around 5-10 kts. A low-level jet will increase after 06Z which could potentially produce low-level wind shear conditions in its maxima over four of our terminals in central & northcentral Oklahoma. By 16Z surface winds will veer south- southwest at 10-15 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 62 82 61 71 / 0 0 40 100 Hobart OK 61 82 60 68 / 0 10 60 100 Wichita Falls TX 62 82 61 71 / 0 40 70 90 Gage OK 58 81 57 66 / 0 0 30 100 Ponca City OK 61 84 61 74 / 0 0 20 90 Durant OK 63 84 63 76 / 0 20 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.