textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Slight chance of isolated storms with gusty winds this afternoon and evening.

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger persists through at least Saturday.

- A cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain chances and cooler temperatures by early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

As of the current time, the storm outflow has pushed the quasi- stationary front to near Erick - Watonga - Stillwater. Winds behind the front are light with cool temperatures (60s/70s), but humid conditions. Localized fog is possible across northwest Oklahoma towards dawn as dewpoint depressions approach 0 deg, with visibility of 1 to 3 miles possible in very localized areas.

Recent short-term model guidance suggests the front will be relatively slow to lift northward today. As a result light north winds are expected to shift south by mid-day or so, with high temperatures across parts of northern and western Oklahoma in the mid- to upper-90's. Elsewhere, near-record heat continues today with temperatures near and above the century mark. With the highest heat indices near 105 degrees expected over southeastern Oklahoma, a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

We added low POPs from southwest to west-central to north-central Oklahoma for this afternoon/evening as air parcels reach convective temperatures within a corridor of low-level baroclinicity near the departing front. Should isolated convective updrafts mature, there is the potential for strong downburst wind gusts to 55 mph. This could have negative impacts to any wildfires in the area. Elevated fire danger is expected today for areas near and south of I-40 and west of I-35 due to very dry vegetation.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Near-record heat continues through Friday, with mainly dry conditions expected. There is a 10 percent chance of isolated showers/storms on Thursday afternoon for southeastern Oklahoma. Southerly winds will begin increasing across northwest Oklahoma on Friday as the lee-trough reorganizes with the approach of a southern stream shortwave from the desert southwest.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The upper ridge, stubbornly remains centered near the ArkLaTex region on Saturday as a strong northern stream wave approaches the northern Rockies and a shortwave approaches from the desert southwest. This will facilitate a southward progression of a cold front into Kansas on Saturday. This pattern will allow hot conditions to persist on Saturday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms returning to north/west Oklahoma by afternoon. Rain/storm chances increase Saturday night (mainly over northern and western Oklahoma) with low chances expanding towards the I-44 corridor.

Sunday marks the first day of the upcoming pattern change. Latest NBM guidance has the cold front reaching northwest Oklahoma on Sunday morning and the ECMWF/GFS suggest the boundary stalls somewhere over northern Oklahoma. Weak CAA, increased cloudiness, and rain/storms will provide for less hot temperatures for most areas compared to recent days. Forecast highs range from the upper 80's (northern OK) to near 100 degrees (southern OK and north TX). Model consensus is improving for these temperatures on Sunday, as shown by the shrinking boxplot with the 25-75th percentile range (reasonable expected high temperatures) having decreased from about 10 degrees (i.e., a much wider range) the past several runs to about 5 degrees difference. Unfortunately, the scale has tipped more in favor of warmer temperatures than cooler for Sunday.

Then, a reinforcing front brings enhanced CAA late Sunday and the surface front pushes through central Oklahoma on Sunday night. Widespread rain/storms are likely as the boundary progresses southward. Shower and storms are possible during the day on Sunday, especially over north-central Oklahoma near the front. Rain chances continue into Monday and diminish from north to south during the day, with high temperatures in the 80's/90's forecast both Monday and Tuesday. There remains large differences in temperatures among ensemble members for next week.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

IFR stratus is ongoing across northwest Oklahoma (KWWR) this morning. The stratus should dissipate by mid to late morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue with daytime cumulus. There is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms, but the chance is too low to include in the TAFs (<20%).

Southerly winds will continue with some slight variation in direction.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 76 98 75 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 101 75 100 75 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 102 75 101 74 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 95 71 98 72 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 98 74 97 73 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 101 76 101 75 / 10 0 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-042-043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.