textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Very warm, near record breaking, temperatures expected on Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Sunday with the arrival of a cold front.

- A pattern change will bring additional rounds of showers and storms through the first week of March.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Northwesterly flow will persist today with an upper ridge rotating slowly eastward over Baja California and a longwave trough axis translating eastward across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. Weak lee troughing will be pushed eastward into Oklahoma through the day today with north winds across portions of northwest Oklahoma by the afternoon hours. Relatively little change will occur to temperatures behind this weak surface boundary during the day, so expect a continuation of above average temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s. Wichita Falls is forecast for a high of 86 degrees with a previous record of 87 degrees set back in 2006.

A surface high parked over the southeast CONUS combined with the southerly winds ahead of the surface trough will pump in warm moist air. Thus early this morning, warm advection showers may develop across southeast Oklahoma and into portions of central Oklahoma. Dewpoints will rise into the 50s by the afternoon, but a lack of moisture in the atmosphere will be a limiting factor to shower and storm development and therefore if anything does develop, expect very light accumulations. Warmer 850mb temperatures will creep into southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, which will leave the best chances for any afternoon activity to south central and into central Oklahoma.If a storm can develop, weak buoyancy of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg but sufficient enough bulk shear of up to 50 knots could give way to an isolated threat for small hail and gusty winds.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Scattered shower and storm chances will increase again late Saturday night, mainly east of I-44. Winds aloft will become westerly and open the door for sub-tropical moisture around the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Instability will remain limited, but with the southward advancing front, elevated weak storms may be possible. Overall, precipitation amounts are still expected to remain light.

By Sunday morning, a post-frontal shallow cool and moist airmass will give way to additional chances for scattered rain showers across portions of northern and central Oklahoma. A few models are hinting at the front retreating northward through the day Sunday, which opens the door for warm air advection and increased instability. Temperatures south of the front will rise into the 70s to lower 80s, while behind the front temperatures will remain cooler in the 50s to 60s. Shower and storm chances will increase Sunday afternoon along and ahead of the frontal boundary (central into southern Oklahoma) with a chance for additional showers north of the front due to warm moist ascent over the frontal boundary. There may be enough instability to support a strong to severe storm Sunday afternoon. Showers will remain possible behind the front as it pushes south into Texas Sunday night into Monday.

Most of the precipitation chances will diminish going into Monday with weak ridging overhead ahead of an incoming shortwave trough. Expect cooler, but still above average, post-frontal temperatures and a return to a southerly surface wind by the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the 100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma. Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible, especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be the greatest.

Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This will play a key role in the timing and location of where the greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even heading into the first week of March.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Areas of non-convective low-level wind shear is still expected to develop overnight across northern and western TAF sites as south/southwest winds above the surface increase. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon shifting winds to northerly as it moves south through portions of the forecast area on Saturday. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially in the southeast, although the potential is not high enough to mention in the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 53 68 44 / 20 20 30 70 Hobart OK 81 52 76 42 / 0 10 20 60 Wichita Falls TX 86 57 82 51 / 10 20 20 40 Gage OK 78 43 59 32 / 0 0 10 20 Ponca City OK 79 43 53 37 / 10 10 40 60 Durant OK 80 56 77 55 / 30 20 20 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.