textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Rain chances continue today, before shifting to the east during the afternoon.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday night into early next week, some severe storms possible Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Initial shortwave currently traversing across western into northern Oklahoma this morning will continue to lift north into Kansas this morning. As it does the band of rain across the area will lift north as well. In addition with the light winds and very moist boundary layer some patchy fog has already developed early this morning. Have added a mention for much of the northwest half of Oklahoma through mid-morning.

Meanwhile, another shortwave trough currently moving across eastern New Mexico into far west Texas will translate east moving into western Oklahoma after sunrise and then east of the area by mid/late afternoon today. As this wave moves across the area expect to see more widely scattered to scattered rain showers as opposed to widespread rain shield. Rainfall amounts will be very light with locations that see rain picking up a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch.

Otherwise, expect a cloudy, cool day with highs in the 60s with a few low 70s in the south and light south winds.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Shortwave ridging develops across the southern and central Plains Sunday between shortwaves to our east and west. Much like Saturday morning expect fog to develop across much of the area Sunday morning. With the weak winds and moist low levels, areas of dense fog appear possible, with the southern third of Oklahoma southward into north Texas the most likely location. Although the fog will slow warming during the early part of the day and expect to see mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should rebound into the 70s to near 80 along and south of the Red River Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile further west, a large upper low drops into the Great Basin and begins to slide east into the four corners area. As this occurs a lead wave in the sub-tropical jet move into west Texas and into the southern and central Plains. Pressure falls in advance of this system will create a deepening surface low in the High Plains of eastern Colorado. This will cause south winds to increase through the Plains. Although not a lot of moisture advection is expected to occur. a sharp and rather deep dryline will take shape by Monday morning somewhere across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles(location differs between models). Temperatures should climb on the heels of the gusty south winds well into the 70s and 80s Monday afternoon.

A few showers or storms appear possible out ahead of the dryline in the warm sector Monday morning into the afternoon hours. As we go through the afternoon the main upper low and its associated forcing will impinge on the dryline, where more robust convection is expected to develop. Most likely location for this would be across western Oklahoma in the 5-7pm timeframe. This activity would then move north and northeast fairly quickly. Models show CAPE from around 1000J/kg to perhaps as high 1500J/kg late Monday afternoon and into the evening with deep-layer shear of 50-60kts, so supercells with all hazards(large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes) possible.

This activity will likely continue through the evening and may linger across the southeast through much of the night. The system also shows a fairly large dry slow, so after the line moves through a location, should see at least a period of dry weather.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

As the upper low shifts east and northeast Tuesday, there will be a chance for some wrap-around showers across the north. Meanwhile, in the wake of the severe weather a cold front will sweep across the area early Tuesday with strong, gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Highs Tuesday will again be in the 60s and lower 70s. More tranquil weather is expected Wednesday as winds go light with more sunshine.

Some differences in the models as we go late in the week as Euro brings a shortwave trough out of the central Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday with some low rain chances. Meanwhile, the GFS takes that shortwave east across the Dakotas. Otherwise, cool and quiet weather expected through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A zone of moderate rain continues in northwest Oklahoma while another is lifting into southern and central Oklahoma at the time of this AFD. Within those precipitation shields, observations have shown a disjointed picture with occasional reductions in ceiling to 1000-3000 feet. Without rain, skies have been VFR. This will continue as rain tapers off to drizzle tonight, with more widespread MVFR ceilings beginning around daybreak and potentially lasting through most or all of the day.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 56 74 63 / 30 10 10 10 Hobart OK 68 57 74 64 / 20 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 72 58 79 65 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 65 53 71 61 / 20 0 0 40 Ponca City OK 70 55 74 62 / 20 10 10 10 Durant OK 72 59 80 64 / 40 20 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.