textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Multi-hazard risk potential on Thursday; Severe weather possible east of a dryline, fire weather concern across portions of western Oklahoma.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues on Friday into the weekend; Multiple opportunities for strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

..FIRE WEATHER

Hot, very dry and windy conditions will develop behind the dryline (across western Oklahoma and far western-north Texas) from the afternoon into early evening. While near-critical to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely to materialize, greatest concern for problematic fire starts and spread will be in areas near and west of a Hollis-to- Alva line, where spring green up remains very sluggish to occur (due to ongoing rainfall deficits/drought). A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for this general corridor from 12 PM to 9 PM today.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

While a few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible across far eastern/southeastern extents of the forecast area, a mostly dry morning and afternoon is expected on Friday. As has been the case at the last several updates, the effect of early day precipitation on the front (namely its associated position) will determine the parameter space and overall likelihood of strong-to-severe thunderstorms during the evening into overnight across our area.

While a majority of guidance shoves the front across the Red River by the late afternoon, a few less rainy/stormy depictions keep the front closer to the I-44/I-35 corridor towards sunset. Have opted to add thunderstorm mentions along and east of this zone given aforementioned uncertainties on frontal position. Whether only across far southeastern Oklahoma, or a greater portion of central and eastern Oklahoma, a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

We will transition back to mostly dry conditions into Saturday morning, as the "washed out" front begins to return northward as an effective warm front throughout the day. The afternoon, evening and overnight period, while containing a risk for another bout of severe weather, remains somewhat uncertain. This is primarily due to a nebulous upper air pattern/lack of (coherent) large-scale forcing mechanisms. One more plausible scenario is the development of a focused area of thunderstorms near and north of the warm front during the evening, as an isentropic regime begins. Any thunderstorm that organizes and sustains will carry a risk for severe weather, again with an emphasis on damaging wind gusts and large hail. The tornado risk is less certain though non-zero, especially if a storm can anchor to the warm frontal zone during the mid to late evening across northern and central Oklahoma.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Sunday continues to look like a repeat of the prior Thursday's forecast, with potential for significant severe and fire weather, though with significant uncertainties/caveats. A strong upper trough looks to quickly move out from the Desert Southwest into the Plains during the day, with a dryline taking shape across the central flank of the forecast area. While these broad scale factors are coming into focus, mesoscale details remain highly uncertain and likely will have feedback from prior days activity. Robust heating and moistening of the boundary layer, along with at least modest synoptic-scale lift, appear to be necessary conditions for thunderstorm development east of the dryline during the evening due to the presence of another strong EML. Should these conditions be met, then intense thunderstorms with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes would materialize. For now, this concern is highest along and east of the U.S. Highway 81 corridor.

Across western Oklahoma (behind the dryline), a punch of hot, dry and windy weather will offer another period of at least near- critical fire weather concern. Depending on the nature of precipitation leading into Sunday, additional fire weather headlines will be possible where fuels remain concerningly dry.

"Tamer" (dry and mild) weather is expected to finally return on Monday behind a departing Pacific Front. Continued southwest flow and occasional passages of upper systems will foster renewed chances for rain and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Ungar

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low clouds persist tonight across portions of Oklahoma with sites ranging from VFR to IFR conditions. Some localized areas of reduced visibility down to 4 miles may be possible, but not expecting widespread fog. A few localized areas of LIFR conditions may also be possible but confidence is low at this point. Light rain/mist may accompany some of these low ceilings overnight tonight. The stratus deck is expected to slowly clear during the afternoon hours Thursday from west to east, but some MVFR ceilings may persist east of the I-35 corridor through the evening and overnight hours Thursday.

There is a low chance for afternoon storms to develop along and east of the dryline tomorrow. Confidence was too low on storm development and exact location for mention in this TAF issuance. A cold front will start to approach the Kansas/Oklahoma state line after midnight tomorrow night, bringing with it north winds and a potential for some showers and storms. This front will not impact TAF sites until after the end of this TAF period, thus no mention for wind shifts or rain/storms was included this issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 61 79 56 / 20 40 20 10 Hobart OK 93 55 83 55 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 87 63 85 59 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 90 48 79 51 / 0 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 81 56 75 52 / 30 70 10 0 Durant OK 77 68 84 61 / 10 30 30 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033.

TX...None.