textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected from mid to late week.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma into western north Texas on Thursday afternoon with a low chance for dry lightning thunderstorms.

- There is an increasing chance for showers/storms this weekend into early next week, including the potential for severe weather.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Warmer weather is ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon with temperatures across western Oklahoma into north Texas running 10 to 15 deg F higher than 24 hours ago. The warmer weather is occurring due to the northeast expansion of a low- level thermal ridge ahead of an approaching cold front. As a result, high temperatures out west will rise into the low to mid 90s deg F. Farther to the east, temperatures will be in the 80s deg F.

The weakening cold front will advance across northern Oklahoma tonight before it dissipates (frontolysis). Synoptic-scale ascent/forcing will remain well to the northeast across the Great Lakes region, which will likely keep most of the front capped across Oklahoma with warm mid-level temperatures in close proximity to a ~591 dam mid-level ridge. Therefore, there is only a very low chance (<10%) across far north central Oklahoma this evening.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Lower temperatures are expected across northern Oklahoma in the front's wake (low to mid 80s deg F) on Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures will be similar to slightly higher than today. Therefore, it'll be another hot afternoon across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas with temperatures in the low to mid 90s deg F. By Wednesday night, there is a low chance of showers/thunderstorms associated with isentropic ascent/warm air advection across north central Oklahoma.

Hotter weather is expected on Thursday as the low-level thermal ridge expands farther to the east. Temperatures across northern and western Oklahoma into western north Texas will be in the mid 90s to near 100 deg F. Farther to the east/southeast, temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 deg F. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient, which will result in gusty southerly winds. The heat, gusty southerly winds, and low humidity will combine with the ongoing drought conditions (i.e., susceptible fuels) to result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma into western north Texas.

Isolated, high-based showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon across western Oklahoma as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. These thunderstorms would have a threat for dry lightning and gusty, erratic winds given the high cloud bases. Rainfall amounts will likely be minimal given very dry low- levels, which will result in significant evaporation (i.e., virga). The evaporation would enhance downdrafts, which will bring the the potential for strong winds at the surface.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Breezy but less gusty on Friday should the strong morning low-level jet weaken. Our heating trend peaks on Friday with more widespread 90s to parts of southwest Oklahoma and western Oklahoma reaching triple digits up to 103 degrees. Our upper ridge starts to break down this weekend as a trough starts deepening over the western U.S. Surface-based moisture transport strengthening this weekend with widespread 60s dewpoints and feeling much muggier with the heat. The sharpened dryline out in the Panhandles will start making advances toward our area along with a series of shortwaves propagating downstream from the trough with increasing instability and deep- layer shear sufficient for severe convection. NBM POPs have lowered to teens for Saturdays severe risk as POPs have increased to 20-30% for late Sunday into Monday when a surface low across the Upper Midwest Region may push a cold front through our area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions this TAF period. A frontal boundary will south across portions of the area later today into tonight before stalling early Wednesday. The front will cause winds to shift towards the NE and E.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 86 64 89 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 60 93 66 97 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 58 87 63 96 / 0 0 10 20 Ponca City OK 60 82 59 91 / 10 0 20 0 Durant OK 58 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.