textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday evening and overnight across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

- Another round of storms is possible Saturday night across western portions of the area, though confidence is lower.

- Rainy pattern continues through end of next week with near seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For the first time in several days, the low-level cloud shield is showing significant breaks. This is letting temperatures moderate toward normal for this time of year - upper 70s to lower 80s. Satellite and surface observations show an accelerating cold front from central Kansas into the northern Texas panhandle. That should arrive in northwest Oklahoma within the next 2-3 hours and potentially act as a forcing mechanism for storms late this afternoon. Instability will reach up to 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE by late evening with relatively dry mid-levels and about 30 knots of bulk shear. Severe hail is possible with initial updrafts, followed by a couple of gusty outflow winds perhaps as high as 70 mph.

This activity should weaken toward late evening, to be replaced by the primary wave of thunderstorm activity overnight. Those thunderstorms will develop within a moderately unstable regime of upslope winds in the central Panhandles. Eastward propagation of those storms is expected late in the evening when cold pools begin to "merge and surge" eastward. A risk for damaging winds (and perhaps severe hail up to an inch or so) will exist particularly across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. However, the lack of a classic Plains springtime low-level jet will act as a limit on the overall intensity of thunderstorms/severe hazards.

Despite the meager LLJ, we anticipate that one or a couple of convective systems will continue to move eastward over the rest of the night and be near or just east of I-35 by daybreak. This will be driven by a continued well of 1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE, and small hail/cloud-to-ground lightning/heavy rain will all be possible.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The MCS(s) will be departing our area as Saturday begins. Behind it, expect a several-hour window of drier weather with breaks in the low- level clouds once again developing by late morning. Storm probabilities during the day will be rather low/scattered with marginal instability and weak deep-layer flow, but sufficient CAM signal exists to think that there will be at least a few updrafts (especially in northwest Oklahoma). Another MCS is possible tomorrow night across parts of our area (although less certain than the one tonight).

More uniform northerly flow aloft develops on Sunday, and we have our first higher-confidence-in-dry-weather period from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will continue to be right about normal for this time of year.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

In the wake of the upper low over Texas, another trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest and bring continued southwesterly flow and several disturbances through the week. Thus, daily shower and storm chances will continue through most of next week. There is a low-to-medium chance for greater than 2 inches of rainfall through the end of next week with the highest chances (40-70%) across southeast and into central and south central Oklahoma and decreasing chances (<40%) westward.

Temperatures will float around normal through much of next week in the 70s to 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Clouds continue to lift and break. Winds remain light with some variability. A line of storms is expected to form in the panhandles this evening and make its way eastward overnight. There is some signal for MVFR ceilings again toward morning, but not enough to include in the TAFs at this point.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 78 61 81 / 80 40 40 10 Hobart OK 59 80 59 83 / 80 40 40 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 82 61 83 / 80 40 50 10 Gage OK 53 74 53 83 / 70 40 30 0 Ponca City OK 60 77 58 81 / 70 60 40 0 Durant OK 65 81 65 82 / 70 60 40 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.