textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue.

- First wave of rainfall potential gives low chances of precipitation northwest today, but will primarily stay west of the area.

- The next chances of rain will be across the northwest half of the area tonight/Tuesday. Rain possible areawide late Thursday through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The upper low that had been over Arizona has opened up and is currently ejecting over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. As has been expected over the last couple of days, the trajectory of this wave remains far enough northwest of us that precipitation chances for the forecast area will remain confined to far western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Clouds will increase areawide though as the mid-level moisture axis does shift slowly eastward. This increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures near or slightly lower than yesterday in most areas, but this is still above normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A second shortwave will approach the area tonight bringing another round of rain chances, primarily to the northwestern half of the area. As discussed the last couple of mornings, there was some uncertainty on the development of this wave, but water vapor satellite and the lightning detection network do show a shortwave over southeastern Chihuahua and northern Durango states with convection currently occurring in areas around Jimenez Chihuahua. This wave is expected to move northeast into southwest Texas this morning and approach Oklahoma tonight. Many models significantly increase the vorticity with this wave today before moving toward Oklahoma which may still be the result of convective feedback in the models. But with the increasing moisture with the mid-level moisture axis shifting east as well as increasing low-level moisture, it may not take a lot of forcing to get convection to develop, so precipitation chances do increase. But somewhat expect the forcing to be weaker than some of the models suggest, and therefore agree with WPC/NBM QPF forecasts that keep precipitation amounts lighter than explicit model forecasts.

Precipitation chances continue into Tuesday before the wave moves east of the area. The clouds and precipitation Tuesday will keep highs Tuesday similar or lower than today in general, but more sunshine Wednesday will allow temperatures to warm again back to around 10 degrees above average.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Mean troughing persists to the west through the week and into the weekend keeping temperatures above average through the forecast. The first in a series of southern stream wave moves in from the Pacific late this week with a plume of high low/mid level moisture spreading into the area ahead of the wave. Rain chances increase late Thursday and persist into Friday. After this first wave, there are differences in timing of the second wave in the models, so timing of rain chances this weekend are less certain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Scattered light showers will affect parts of western Oklahoma and north Texas this evening, shifting eastward toward morning. Most of this should be just light showers, but occasional lightning and brief bouts of moderate rainfall will be possible. With this system, MVFR ceilings are expected to approach western Oklahoma from the west overnight / early morning. Winds will generally be light and south to southeasterly with some breeziness in the afternoon.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 59 74 60 79 / 20 50 0 10 Hobart OK 58 75 60 80 / 60 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 78 61 82 / 30 40 10 10 Gage OK 55 73 57 81 / 70 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 73 58 81 / 20 30 10 10 Durant OK 57 81 59 83 / 0 10 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.