textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible on Friday, with hail up to the size of quarters, gusts to 70 mph, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend and the week beyond.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight through Friday) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A positively-tilted stationary front is anticipated to remain over parts of the area today along with remnant outflow boundaries from recent convection, along with a weak surface low prog'd to be near Childress by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible through tonight.

Strong instability (highest south of the boundary) and eroding MLCIN will lead to an environment favorable for strong to severe storms, especially towards late afternoon and evening as wind shear increases. Highest chances are this afternoon into the evening hours across north- central, western and west-central Oklahoma, and adjacent north Texas. Marginal mid-level lapse rates should limit hail size to around quarter- sized. Higher downdraft CAPE (up to 1500 J/kg or so) across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will lead to a favorable environment for severe wind gusts up to 70 mph. As has been the case this past week, high PWAT values will continue to be present which could result in efficient rainfall, as well. Flash flood potential should be limited mainly to north-central Oklahoma from a line near and west of Blackwell to Perry given 5-day rainfall totals of near 7.5 inches at the Blackwell mesonet site.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Severe potential diminishes by late Friday evening but another wave of scattered showers/storms could move into northwest/western Oklahoma late Friday evening into early Saturday morning with strong to severe wind gusts possible.

The upper ridge that was centered over Chihuahua shifts eastward across Texas and reaches the lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough descends across the Pacific northwest and will see the beginning of a pattern change as upper flow shifts southwesterly. There are low chances of showers and storms on Saturday, but are nonexistent by Sunday. Otherwise, summertime heat is expected.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Above-average temperatures will be the main story next week with highs in the upper 90's to low 100's. Heat index values are forecast to remain just below advisory criteria, with warmer values expected over north-central Oklahoma into mid-week. Low shower and storm chances could linger across western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

Thompson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Terminals KSPS & KDUA could see scattered light rain through 16Z as our overnight MCS will continue winding down. Stratus coming off the Central & Southern High Plains could lower ceilings to an MVFR category at terminal KWWR between 12-20Z. Otherwise our remaining terminals are most likely to remain in a VFR category through much of the forecast period. There is a 20-30% probability that late afternoon heating could initiate thunderstorms between 21-06Z which could impact six of our terminals in central through southwest Oklahoma including Wichita Falls TX. After 06Z could see another MCS coming off the Southern High Plains impacting our terminals in northern Oklahoma. Expecting ceilings with most storms to be higher-based but could see brief periods of reduced visibilities in rain should these storm cells move across any of our terminals.

Surface winds should stay light & variable across northwest Oklahoma with increasing southerly winds across the rest of our terminals with sustained wind speeds at 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts by 16Z. Surface winds will decrease to 5-10 kts and back south- southeast by 01Z. A 35-40 kt low-level jet will be increasing tonight out of the south by 04-06Z which could result in low-level wind shear conditions impacting some of our terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 93 76 95 78 / 20 30 20 0 Hobart OK 97 76 100 78 / 20 40 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 98 77 99 77 / 20 20 0 0 Gage OK 89 71 102 80 / 20 40 10 20 Ponca City OK 88 73 92 79 / 20 40 20 0 Durant OK 92 78 94 77 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.