textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- One or more rounds of storms expected from this morning through early tonight; damaging winds possible.

- Chances for evening storms again on Wednesday and potentially Thursday.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Through Tuesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Northwest flow in, MCS out. That's a common forecast input/output for us in late June as the subtropical ridge begins to intensify out west. It's a pattern that we're going to find a little hard to shake through the rest of this week, as well.

That pattern will be in place today. Guidance suggests the existence of an MCV from storms near the Palmer Divide on Monday afternoon. This MCV will slowly drift south-southeast within the steering flow and reach southwest Kansas by mid-to-late morning. While that's occurring, surface winds will begin backing again along and west of the 100th meridian within the lee trough zone. This will begin pumping the zone of 70-73 dewpoints northwestward toward the MCV.

A couple of scenarios are possible, and those scenarios are in turn complicated by the possible existence of convection along the outflow boundary near the Red River around daybreak. Uncertainty in timing of the MCS is uncertain, as some members of the 0Z HREF (the HRRR and NAM especially) depict convection initiation as early as mid-morning. If this was to occur, forecast soundings suggest that the primary well of instability would be elevated above a stable boundary layer. In this case, the damaging wind threat could be initially limited until the MCS reaches the richer boundary-layer moisture in southern Oklahoma/western north Texas by late morning or early afternoon.

Meanwhile, another round of convection will develop across the high terrain of Colorado and the panhandles and move southeast during the evening hours. This is where the presence of a midday MCS and its impacts on the environment will play a large role in determining the breadth of severe weather impacts across our area. For instance, the 18Z NAM 3km depicts no storms until an MCS moves through during the evening. The environment ahead of that MCS would be primed for significant severe wind gusts with large looping hodographs and moderate instability. Meanwhile, the 0Z NAM 3km does depict a midday squall line diving southeastward across western Oklahoma, and the subsidence behind it is sufficient to quash any further storms for the rest of the day and night.

It goes without saying: there will be storms, most likely in the form of a squall line, across our area today (probably west of I-35 for the most part). Beyond that, confidence is limited in the cascading impacts of prior convection, so remain alert for changes in the forecast.

Meister

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Northwest flow season will continue on Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. The ridge will continue to hold strong over the middle Rio Grande Valley with flow pinched over the Central Plains, which will very likely encourage another round of convection to develop off of the Front Range and Raton Mesa. The NAM shows a 35 knot 850 mb LLJ across the panhandles to just east of the 100th meridian, which presumably will favor a continuation of any MCS into at least the northwestern part of Oklahoma Wednesday evening. Similar to other northwest flow years, temperatures will be rather bifurcated across the forecast area: western north Texas, near the core of the ridge, will approach 100 degrees. Meanwhile, northern Oklahoma will likely see impacts of outflow boundaries on the diurnal cycle and will remain in the 80s.

The pattern looks to break down at least a little bit on Thursday as the ridge deamplifies and spreads eastward. This will most likely add a few degrees to everyone's temperatures. Right now, NBM inputs suggest dewpoints will actually drop a few degrees Thursday relative to today/Wednesday, in large part because surface winds veer some. Given how much rain the area has seen recently, that doesn't feel like a given. Storm chances Thursday may very well stay to our north across Kansas, though northern Oklahoma is far enough removed from the ridge to warrant mentionable PoPS as well.

Meister

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The northwest flow regime will break down by Saturday at the latest. The subtropical ridge will slide back east and amplify across the southeast US in response to a trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. For us, there are a few sensible impacts:

-Temperatures will start heating up again by the weekend, and Heat Advisory criteria may once again be met over a 3-5 day span consecutively during the afternoon.

-Rain chances will markedly decrease over the weekend and into early next week, as well.

There is an indication that the upcoming period of ridging will then retrograde and center itself back over the southern/central Plains during week 2, but that is beyond the current long-term forecast.

Meister

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Unsettled weather continues with prolonged periods of MVFR to IFR conditions across our terminals due to storm activity producing low ceilings and reduced visibilities in rain through 00Z. After 00Z will see another MCS coming down off the Southern High Plains with the highest probabilities at this time of impacting our terminals in southwest Oklahoma through adjacent northern TX. Otherwise low ceilings will continue to impact our remaining terminals through the morning hours. Convective activity will continue keeping our surface winds variable with increased gusts due to storm outflow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 88 72 89 73 / 50 60 30 50 Hobart OK 94 71 95 73 / 40 50 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 94 74 96 75 / 20 30 0 0 Gage OK 91 68 88 68 / 60 60 30 30 Ponca City OK 82 69 84 70 / 60 70 50 70 Durant OK 90 76 92 76 / 50 40 10 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.