textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Severe thunderstorms possible today with a risk for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (potentially strong).

- Briefly drier Monday into Tuesday before additional storm chances return next week.

- Fire weather possible behind the dryline this weekend, mainly across far western/northwestern Oklahoma.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again today as a warm front and dryline provide potential initiation sources for convection amid a highly unstable and sheared environment. Currently much of our area is observing light east-southeast to east flow in the wake of outflow and a dying cold front that passed through yesterday. Surface pressure falls to our west in response to increased westerly mid-level flow over the Rockies will encourage increasing moisture advection through the day as winds strengthen from the south and southeast. Models are in good agreement on the warm front lifting north into the area this afternoon, stretching from central OK southeastward into southeast OK, with a diffuse dryline expected to be oriented north-south west of I-35.

Synoptic scale forcing aloft will be rather nebulous today, as our area remains under fairly zonal flow aloft ahead of a robust shortwave well to the west along the California coast. That said, there does still appear to be a signal in the models for a subtle mid-level wave that is forecast to cross the area during peak heating this afternoon which may provide a bit of a boost for thunderstorm development. CAMs have been more enthusiastic about development along and north of the warm front as opposed to along the dryline, but with capping forecast to erode along both boundaries cannot rule out development along either zone. The environment this afternoon will be characterized by strong instability as upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints advect northward with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/Kg centered along the I-35 corridor. Low-level shear will be enhanced along and north of the warm front with strongly backed flow noted on most models. Storm mode is likely to be discrete supercells initially which may merge into several clusters by mid evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible into the overnight period as well as warm advection increases with the low- level jet. Given the degree of instability, storms will pose a risk for very large hail (perhaps larger than baseballs) and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, a corridor of locally enhanced tornado threat, including a risk for a strong tornado or two, is plausible along and north of the warm front where low-level shear will be maximized.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers and storms may linger into early Sunday morning across southeast portions of the area, but much of the day on Sunday is forecast to be dry in the wake of earlier convection. Additional thunderstorm development is still highly uncertain and most model guidance shows little if any convection Sunday afternoon. The wave timing still appears to be too slow and/or directed to far to our northwest during peak heating Sunday afternoon to provide much in the way of synoptic lift. Additionally, forecast soundings along and ahead of the dryline reveal fairly stout capping that may be difficult to overcome without this lift. If (a big if) storms are able to develop, the environment would be supportive of all severe hazards given strong instability and wind shear (especially during the evening), but overall chances for storms remain limited (<30%), representing a highly conditional setup.

Moisture is forecast to get pushed largely to the south and east of the area on Monday as a weak cold front crosses the area. Very little temperature change is forecast behind the front. In fact, with drier air and increased sunshine many areas may see highs on Monday warmer than those on Sunday, pushing into the mid 80s to low 90s.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Model spread increases mid to late week regarding the degree of moisture recovery and related storm/severe chances. The latest guidance has trended towards a more suppressed solution with much of our area remaining to the north of the deeper moisture. That said, it is not forecast to be all that far away and with westerly/southwesterly flow being maintained over the region through much of the week it would not take much of a shift back north to bring additional severe chances to the area. Regardless, models do agree on the next bigger shortwave approaching the area Friday, bringing increased precipitation chances to much of the region. Temperatures will start out near or slightly above normal Tuesday, with below normal temperatures then forecast for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Widespread IFR and LIFR ceilings have spread into the area this morning and these conditions will persist for a few hours before ceilings begin to rise. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon, with the highest chances in the eastern half of the forecast area. Areas of MVFR (and potentially IFR) conditions will be possible again tonight as stratus redevelops in addition to any lower ceilings and visibilities associated with thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 81 62 86 68 / 30 20 10 10 Hobart OK 87 58 91 63 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 93 62 95 69 / 10 10 0 10 Gage OK 83 53 89 55 / 20 30 30 10 Ponca City OK 78 60 78 64 / 50 50 30 30 Durant OK 86 65 87 71 / 40 50 20 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.