textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Another round of rainfall is likely on Sunday into Monday morning along with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- Turning cooler towards middle of next week with low temperatures near the freezing mark.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mostly mild temperatures and breezy winds continue to shift northwesterly this afternoon as the trough over Kansas slowly lifts away from our region. Wrap-around low-level moisture, in the form of stratus, continues to advance towards central Oklahoma, though some erosion just behind the leading edge of the cloud deck is recently noted on satellite. Cloudiness is anticipated to remain over northern into central Oklahoma tonight. There is some uncertainty on degree of cloud-cover and southern extent this afternoon and tonight. Short-term models lean towards more clouds farther south than NBM output.

If this occurs, then overnight low temperatures could be slightly warmer. As it stands currently, temperatures by early Saturday morning are expected to drop mainly into the 40's with some upper 30's possible over parts of northwest/western Oklahoma, with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. No precipitation is expected.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Short-wave ridging will push a surface high across the area resulting in light winds veering anti-cyclonically with clouds generally shifting south and east on Saturday. Cooler weather is anticipated tomorrow for most areas with high temperatures in the upper 50's to mid-60's. The exception to this is western and northwestern Oklahoma, which will be warmer than today due to a combination of diminishing cold air advection and higher insolation (less cloud-cover) compared to other parts of the CWA.

A closed upper low pressure system, which is currently spinning southward along the southern California coast and towards Baja California, shifts eastward over Baja and then lifts slowly towards the four corners region around mid-day Sunday. Increasing clouds and rain chances will move in from the southwest throughout the day, with of moderate rainfall likely late Sunday into Monday. An axis of higher rain totals (near 2 to 3 inches) is currently forecast within a corridor that extends from north-central Texas to far south-central and southeastern Oklahoma. This is the area currently prog'd to have some flash flood potential.

There are medium-high probabilities (70+%) of at least 1 inch of storm total rainfall (which extends into Monday) along/east of a line from Wichita Falls to Ardmore to Coalgate. There is a medium chance (~50%) of 2 inches of rainfall for a small area from Marietta to Durant and Atoka. Heaviest rainfall rates are estimated to arrive over western north Texas on Sunday afternoon, followed by south-central and southeastern Oklahoma after dark on Sunday.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Height falls and associated lift begin to occur across the southern Plains as upper low approaches the area Sunday. Should see precip develop across the west during the morning and then overspreading the area during the day. This storm system is a bit more progressive than this last one and once it begins to lift northeast does so fairly quickly. Highest rain chances will be Sunday afternoon into Monday morning with area most likely to see heavier amounts being across south-central into southeast Oklahoma. Much like this current storm system a rather impressive dry slot looks to overspread the area Sunday night into Monday. This will quickly bring an end to the more significant rainfall across much of the area, exception as mentioned above being portions of south-central and southeast Oklahoma. Some potential in these areas to pick up another 2 to 3 inches of rain.

Rain chances end quickly Monday afternoon with drier air filtering in the storm systems wake. An initial cold front then slides south across the area on Tuesday with a reinforcing shot of colder air plunging south Tuesday night making Wednesday the coolest day of the upcoming week as center of surface high setting overhead. Some areas may remain in the 40s with much of the area in the mid/lower 50s. Many locations may see another freeze Thanksgiving morning with decent recovery during the day with 50s area-wide with at least some sunshine the way it looks now.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A deck of stratus is located from just southeast of SWO to OKC to HBR and everywhere northwest of that line this evening. This stratus deck has not really advanced or retreated much during the daytime but is showing signs of expanding south and east on satellite currently. It will likely impact OUN shortly, though it may stay just north of LAW. Ceilings within the cloud deck are about 2,000 feet with some drop expected tonight to 1,000-1,500 feet. Tomorrow, the system will depart and skies will become VFR areawide by afternoon. Winds are out of the west-northwest now and will light and shift to northerly overnight.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 43 59 41 62 / 0 0 0 50 Hobart OK 40 64 39 61 / 0 0 0 80 Wichita Falls TX 43 66 43 63 / 0 0 0 80 Gage OK 36 63 37 59 / 0 0 0 80 Ponca City OK 43 60 40 62 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 46 65 46 68 / 0 0 0 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.