textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 443 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible for far western Oklahoma into western north Texas this afternoon

- Very warm temperatures are expected today with cooler weather by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Windy with potential fire weather across our far west and severe risks for storms are the headlines for today and tonight's period.

The strong low-level jet overnight is not expected to weaken too much today as we could see wind gusts in the 40-50 mph as we continue to mix higher into the jet. A deepening surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain a tight pressure gradient across our area with south winds sustained at 20-25 mph. As a result our current Wind Advisory will remain in effect through this evening in areas generally west and north of the I-44 corridor. A dryline approaching our western CWA is expected to advance across the western one-tier of our counties in Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. As a result the fire danger potential will be increasing Near Critical to Critical risk west of the dryline due to very low afternoon RH's expected along with the gusty south winds and hot temperatures over still dry vegetation. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect this afternoon into the evening hours in that one-tier of counties west of the dryline.

As far as storms, there is a 20-25% probability for convection firing up along and east of the dryline as forecast soundings suggest diurnal heating eroding the mid-level cap. Should any storms initiate they would be growing in strongly unstable (3000- 5000 J/kg) environment. Although deep-layer shear may be weak this afternoon in our area but expected to increase tonight along with the low-level shear as the low-level jet strengthens. Although the overall highest severe risk will be highest across the Central Plains the risk will extend into the Southern Plains with an Enhanced risk across northern Oklahoma to a Slight risk covering all but our far southeast CWA. Should any dryline convection initiate there is a potential for supercells producing large hail and damaging wind gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado with that risk highest closer to the Central Plains in northern Oklahoma. Storm POPs increase late tonight up to 80% with a cold front coming down the Central Plains advancing into northern Oklahoma late this evening pushing across the remainder of our forecast area through the early morning hours. Todays severe risks and associated hazards will be remain unchanged for tonight in the warm sector along and ahead of the cold front as the shear will be increasing.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

By sunrise Tuesday expecting the cold front & storm activity to be near the I-44 corridor and continue pushing south and east. Storm POPs will remain high up 60-90% along the front during the remaining morning hours but more restricted to southeast Oklahoma in the afternoon with the cold front eventually exiting our area. The severe risk remains along the cold front into Tuesday afternoon with the hail & wind hazards remaining although the tornado risk will be very low. High surface pressure starts building in behind the cold front with lighter north winds advecting much cooler air down through the Great Plains. Although the coolest air may lag reaching southeast Oklahoma and our Texas counties for a day, the remainder of our area will see milder unseasonably cooler temperatures with highs near 70 degrees with the muggy air restricted to southeast Oklahoma. Although our area will be post-frontal by Tuesday evening, the main systems upper trough will remain opened across the western U.S. through this week with a series of short-wave disturbances expelled downstream over the Southern Plains each day producing elevated-based convection. The first of these disturbance will increase storm chances Tuesday evening and overnight across our area. Although the ECMWF is less aggressive with the elevated instability, the NAM suggests these elevated storms could produce severe hail & winds overnight.

For Wednesday all of our area will feel milder with highs in the lower to mid 70s becoming chilly with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s and storm chances again increasing overnight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

An active subtropical jet stream (STJ) with subtle waves lifting into the Southern Plains will result in a daily chance of showers/storms through the end the week into next weekend. At this time, there is no day that has an appreciable risk for severe weather. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable for late May.

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Showers and storms are expected to move in with a cold front late tonight into tomorrow. Winds will shift to the north behind this boundary, as will reduced ceilings through the remainder of the TAF period. There is the potential for addition storms this afternoon and evening along western Oklahoma and western north Texas, but confidence in affecting any TAF site is low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 61 70 55 71 / 60 40 60 30 Hobart OK 60 72 54 73 / 60 20 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 68 81 58 76 / 20 80 70 40 Gage OK 49 72 46 70 / 20 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 58 69 52 70 / 80 20 30 10 Durant OK 74 84 64 78 / 10 90 60 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-014- 021-033-034.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>027- 034>038.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084.