textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon with a few strong storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Additional strong to severe storms will be possible tonight into Sunday morning with all hazards possible, including heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Sunday evening into early next week will continue to feature an active pattern of showers and storms, some strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return early next week, especially across portions of western Oklahoma, especially if rainfall remains limited in that area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon as minor perturbations propagate through the southwesterly flow aloft. Deep moisture within the vertical profile would suggest rainfall rates would be moderate with this activity, however, given the scattered-to-isolated nature, not expecting any flooding concerns with this activity. Perhaps a few stronger updrafts may produce hail up to quarters, but lightning and small hail appear to be the main concerns with the early afternoon activity.

Our attention turns to later this evening when storms are expected to form across west Texas, form into a line, and move eastward across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Any isolated activity remaining as it enters the area will have the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The expectation is for these storms to form into a line and move eastward into our area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Perhaps a few embedded circulations are possible, especially across far southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where the shear is slightly better. PWAT values increase late this evening into the overnight hours, so if a more mature line of thunderstorms can move across the area, there will be a risk of flooding (mainly along and south of I-40).

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Sunday's severe risk continues to remain uncertain, as Saturday night into Sunday morning's storms may "overwork" the environment and limit the destabilization during the day Sunday. Another limiting factor to storm development is the rising mid-level heights during the day Sunday. If the shortwave embedded within the STJ lingers across the area during the day, mid-level heights along the dryline will most likely increase, limiting storm development. If the environment can recover, a dryline is expected to mix just east of the 100th meridian, which will be the focal point for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. There is however, a signal for confluence along the dryline during the afternoon, which may provide just enough lift for storms to initiate. These trends are what we will be looking out for over the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, if storms can form along the dryline, all hazards will be possible, especially storms that remain isolated in the evening hours.

A stronger mid-level system will continue to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Continuous southwesterly flow aloft will aid in lee troughing along the Rockies. This will promote a continuous fetch of low-level moisture advection across the entire area. A dryline is expected to mix eastward once again across the 100th meridian and slightly eastward. Mid-level heights are expected to fall during the afternoon, which may be just enough to get storms to initiate along the dryline. The best chance for storm development right now appears to be along southwestern Oklahoma into western north Texas. If any storms do develop, all hazards will be possible with the strongest storms.

Fire weather concerns across far northwest Oklahoma may begin to ramp up starting early next week. There a few factors that may limit this potential. Potential rainfall this weekend would help expedite the green up across these areas. In addition, the exact positioning of the dryline will be a factor into what areas have an immediate threat, especially west of the dryline. These details are likely to be ironed out over the next few days.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Heading into the middle of the week, an active pattern remains in place with increased southwesterly flow aloft and a passing shortwave. Exact details on storm severity, timing and location still remain unclear as the track of the upper system may change. Another longwave trough axis may follow later next week with additional storm chances possible heading into next weekend. Fire weather next week will remain contingent on rainfall amounts over the weekend and into next week, but elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return across portions of western Oklahoma through next week. Over the next 7 days, there is some hope to improve drought conditions across portions of Oklahoma.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A broken cloud deck is lifting, with most sites expected to be VFR within an hour of 18z. Scattered storms (sometimes strong) will be possible across most of the forecast area this afternoon, but chances at any particular site will be low. More widespread showers and storms will sweep eastward across the forecast area overnight, with heavy rain (leading to low visibilities) and strong winds possible with the main line. Outside of storms, southerly winds will generally be breezy.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 63 78 64 86 / 90 90 10 20 Hobart OK 61 83 60 89 / 90 70 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 64 84 65 88 / 100 80 10 20 Gage OK 57 85 56 89 / 60 40 20 0 Ponca City OK 62 77 63 85 / 70 90 10 20 Durant OK 66 77 66 83 / 60 90 40 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.