textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues through Wednesday with triple digit heat indices and lows well above normal.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered to numerous storms expected late Wednesday into Thursday. Strong to severe storms possible across northern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Heat tries to rebound this weekend with low rain chances each day.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

One more day of heat before a cold front finally brings us some relief. As on previous days, we'll see high temperatures in the 100-105 range with heat indices largely in the 105-110 range. Highest heat indices will be in the southeast where moisture is the greatest, contrasted with drier air in northwest Oklahoma.

A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this afternoon (between 1-4pm). Unfortunately, we're not likely to see any temperature impacts until after peak heating. Scattered storms are expected to fire along and near the front (CAMs depict a scattered mess including some isolated activity ahead of the front and areas of scattered storms lagging behind the front) and progress southeastward through the evening and overnight, reaching the I-44 corridor around daybreak on Thursday.

Weak shear will limit storm organization, but a few strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon across northern Oklahoma with modest instability in place. Forecast DCAPE values of up to 1500 J/kg could support gusts up to 70mph, though limited instability and messy storm modes will keep the probability of such gusts low.

Rainfall amounts will be splotchy due to the scattered nature of convection. Areas north of I-40 have a 50-70% chance of seeing at least 0.25 inches by sunrise Thursday.

While Thursday morning lows ahead of the front in southern Oklahoma and north Texas will likely be in the mid to upper 70s again, northern Oklahoma could see temperatures drop as low as the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Day

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue into Thursday with chances shifting southward through the day. Rainfall amounts south of I-40 will have a 20-50% chance of exceeding 0.25 inches. When it is all said and done, the axis of highest QPF is expected to run through north central Oklahoma (0.3 to 1.5 inches as indicated by the interquartile range).

The front and associated rainfall / cloud cover will bring much needed relief from the heat to much of the area. Areas north of I-40 will likely stay below 90 degrees (60-80% confidence), while southern Oklahoma and north Texas are likely to stay below 100 degrees (60-80% confidence).

By Friday, the front starts to wash out and southerly surface flow looks likely to resume. This will bring us back into the 90s for much of the area and lower 100s for southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. We will maintain low rain chances (10-20%) as some members depict a wave coming around the edge of the ridge.

Day

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Nearby surface ridging and southerly surface flow will keep temperatures hot over the weekend. Upper 90s to lower 100s appear likely with some risk of reaching heat advisory criteria across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas (particularly on Saturday).

Being on the edge of the upper high, we will maintain at least low PoPs, particularly in northern and eastern Oklahoma. Deterministic models have shown consistency in depicting an MCS Saturday night, though its currently forecast trajectory would mainly impact eastern Oklahoma.

High confidence in hot temperatures and low rain chances now extends through Monday afternoon. After this, confidence drops off dramatically with the possible arrival of a cold front sometime early to mid week next week. Models vary greatly in timing and strength of the front. Continued hot and dry weather remains the more likely scenario (70-80%), though the outlier solutions would bring substantial cooling.

Day

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 00Z. Thunderstorm activity will be possible mainly along a cold front which will be pushing into northern Oklahoma by 00Z with terminals KPNC, KSWO, and KWWR potentially reducing to an MVFR category with reduced visibilities in rain and further lowering of ceilings. A 30% probability of this thunderstorm activity will start around 09Z in central through west-central Oklahoma with potentially MVFR conditions at KOKC, KOUN, and KCSM and into southwest Oklahoma and terminal KSPS by 15Z. There will also be a northerly wind shift behind the front although storm outflow boundaries could make winds gusty and variable in direction. Terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma will be our only terminal staying dry and ahead of the surface front through the end of the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 100 75 86 70 / 10 40 90 30 Hobart OK 103 75 90 71 / 10 20 70 30 Wichita Falls TX 102 77 94 73 / 10 10 60 10 Gage OK 101 68 86 66 / 50 70 70 30 Ponca City OK 102 71 85 67 / 30 90 80 20 Durant OK 101 76 96 74 / 0 0 50 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-010>013- 015>020-022>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.