textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Very windy today with wind gusts of 50-60+ mph expected.

- Near-crticial to critical fire weather today, mainly due to strong winds

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning with wind chill values in the single digits and teens.

- Record heat possible by the end of next week into next weekend, with widespread 90+ degree temperatures expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 923 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Made a quick update to first period grids to better support potential fire weather operations. Nudged grids towards the HRRR which (a) brings a sharper increase to the wind speeds at the front moves through, (b) brings in lower dewpoints quicker, and (c) cools temperatures are little quicker, at least in the north and west with this initial surge of cooler air. Although this somewhat cooler, somewhat lower dewpoints act to offset each other, the net effect was that forecast minimum humidity values are a little lower, especially in the southwest.

NEAR TERM

(Through Sunday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Quite mild conditions are in place early this morning as a strong low-level jet is keeping the boundary layer well mixed. Surface analysis shows a cold front across southern Nebraska that is forecast to race southward this morning as a trough amplifies across the central US. Very strong north winds and falling temperatures are expected behind the front today. Sustained speeds of 30-40 mph are likely with gusts over 60 mph at times, especially across western OK into western north TX. Blowing dust is also likely for these areas as much of the region upstream has seen little recent rainfall and vegetation remains dormant. A High Wind Warning is in effect for most of the area outside southeast OK, where a Wind Advisory is in effect for gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

Fire weather will also be a concern today as even with falling temperatures such intense winds and dry fuels will make it more difficult to deal with any fires that start. Perhaps the greatest overall fire risk will be across southwest OK and western north TX where near-critical to critical fire conditions are expected as temperatures will be a bit warmer and relative humidity a bit lower for these areas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area along and west of I-35.

Winds will only gradually decrease this evening as it appears the boundary layer will take a couple hours to fully decouple after sunset. Strong cold advection will make for a chilly night tonight with lows dropping well into the 20s for most of the area, with some teens possible in northern/northwestern OK. Combined with a lingering northerly breeze, it will feel 10-15 degrees colder in most spots.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The area will remain under the influence of surface ridging Monday with north-northwest winds keeping temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s for highs. Winds will veer back to the south by Tuesday, helping boost highs back above average into the 60s and 70s. Will have to watch for a fire weather risk Tuesday with potential for a dry return flow setup creating elevated to near-critical fire weather.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The warming trend will continue in earnest through the middle to end of next week as strong upper ridging (nearly 600 dm at 500 mb) builds across the western/central US. Model data continues to point towards the potential for record heat across the area with widespread 90+ degree temps likely and 100 degrees not out of the question across southwest OK and western north TX. Remarkably, even the 50th percentile NBM would challenge the all-time March high temperature records Thursday through Saturday, with 90th percentile values well over 100 degrees across much of the area and approaching 110 degrees across our southwest. Ensemble spread increases by Saturday into Sunday as some models want to try to bring a cold front into/near and heat relief into the area, but confidence is rather low in this scenario at this time. Unfortunately, with the upper ridge dominating the region precipitation chances will remain near zero for at least the next 7 days if not longer.

Ware

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Primary factor for aviation will be a powerful cold front that will move through the area between 12Z and 18Z. Prior to FROPA, MVFR to IFR skies will be noted at DUA and perhaps briefly as far north as the OKC metro. Prior to frontal passage, extreme winds with gusts upwards of 45-50 knots will occur for the rest of the daytime and last into the early part of the night. Blowing dust could be a factor in reducing visibilities, especially in northwest Oklahoma. Winds will become less-gusty overnight but remain from the north-northwest.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 68 24 48 28 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 61 22 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 73 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 52 19 51 30 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 20 43 24 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 78 30 49 29 / 10 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030- 033>040-044-045.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006- 009>012-014>019-021>030-033>041-044>046-050.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-041>043- 046>048-050>052.

TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.