textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Fire Weather Watch in effect for Thursday across western Oklahoma.

- Scattered severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts, are possible in northwest Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and evening.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A Heat Advisory remains in effect today and tonight due to heat indices up to 110 degrees this afternoon and overnight low temperatures near 80 degrees (offering minimal relief). Latest observations show localized heat indices of 109 degrees already occurring (as of 1:05 PM) over northern Oklahoma.

With breezy south/southwest winds and daytime mixing, relative humidity has fallen across northwest Oklahoma to near 20 percent and will continue to decrease over the coming hours. Elevated fire weather conditions are especially likely within this area this afternoon.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

On Thursday, the center of the mid-level ridge slides southeast to the Gulf Coast as a shortwave trough tracks towards the central plains. For us, this will result in increased south/southwesterly winds with gusts to 35 mph possible, a rise in temperatures, and severe storm chances over northwest Oklahoma. Given the forecast uncertainty for heat indices/temperatures, we held off (for now) on issuing an Extreme Heat Warning for tomorrow. Still, very hot and humid conditions will keep the Heat Advisory firmly in place.

The enhanced return flow should keep dewpoint temperatures in the 60's for most areas, which will maintain dangerously high heat indices. Still, the very high temperatures will lead to low relative humidity (values of 20 to 30 percent) across the area tomorrow. While the bulk of elevated fire weather conditions will be centered across western Oklahoma, we could see the elevated fire risk creep into portions of west-central Oklahoma on Thursday.

There is a 30% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening. Damaging, erratic wind gusts of 70+ mph are possible with this activity. In addition to the wind hazard, dry lightning is also a concern with regard to potential fire ignitions and the erratic/severe winds could lead to some fire spread. Therefore, in collaboration with our partners, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for western Oklahoma for Thursday.

There is uncertainty with the progression and timing of the frontal boundary over Kansas and if/when the boundary enters northwest Oklahoma. Regardless, hot and breezy conditions will persist on Friday despite the potential wind shift.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Still no real evidence of any cooler or wetter weather in the long- range period. Troughing across the West Coast remains through the early part of next week, but with the ridge centered over the Gulf Coast we will likely remain on the periphery/just outside of any southwesterly flow aloft and rain chances. While heat similar to Thursday doesn't look likely to recur, air temperatures should still get up into the 100s across the entire area on most days. Fire weather will also likely be problematic at least one, if not all, of the days in the long term, and that pattern will continue until the moment we get a good soaking rain again.

Meister

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue areawide during the period. After an internal of low-level wind shear across northern Oklahoma prior to sunrise, the return of a gusty south-southwesterly wind is forecast by 13-15Z Thursday across the area.

Scattered high-based convection remains likely across portions of western/northwestern Oklahoma on Thursday late afternoon into evening, with potential for gusty-erratic winds (most especially at KWWR).

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 80 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 80 106 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 78 106 76 104 / 0 30 20 10 Ponca City OK 80 105 79 103 / 0 0 10 10 Durant OK 79 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.