textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Flood Watch in effect for SW Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Strong to severe storms through Friday morning.

- Cold front and rain brings relief from the heat.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

As of right now, the cold front can easily be seen on most maps, with temperatures and heat index values in the 90s and low triple digits in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, while north and northwest of the front, temperatures are in the 60s. North winds behind the front are keeping things nice and cool, while a heat advisory remains in effect for the areas to the south. This front will continue to move south during the day, eventually cooling all of us off for a bit. However...

...things then begin to get a lot more interesting. The synoptic scale and convective allowing models are in surprising agreement in the anticipated evolution of additional showers and storms tonight. As of 1 PM, there is a surface low near Lubbock, and some upper level support in northern and central Mexico. These features will be moving slowly northeast, while the surface front oozes southward. By early this evening, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop near the 100th meridian just south of the Red River. This is likely where the strongest thunderstorms will be, as the CAMs suggest initiation between 7 and 9 PM. Additional storms are then expected to develop and persist north of the Red River, in the warm advection regime overnight. This is where the potential for flooding will be. (See the Hydrology section for more nerdiness)

Thunderstorms this morning have produced some hail up to half- dollar size, along with the occasional gust to around 60 mph. Thunderstorms this evening and overnight will have the same potential in the south, while heavy rainfall becomes the primary hazard.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Once the overnight rainfall ends tomorrow morning, things will slow down a bit for about a day and a half. Rain exits Friday morning and afternoon, as temperatures return to the middle 80s for both Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

In the extended, things will definitely be on the active side, especially Monday through Wednesday. Northwest flow aloft will give some daily thunderstorm chances, while being a fairly typical June pattern, with daily rain chances...but plenty of nice(ish) weather in between storms.

Sunday is expected to be dry, yet once again windy and the warmest day of the extended. Winds are expected to be gusty, with a few gusts over 35 mph. Unfortunately, temperatures will be back in the mid and upper 90s. That heat will be brief, as the next front moves in Monday and drops high temperatures back to the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Quite confident in the terminal forecasts for the first six hours, but after that, sloppy convection which will form after 00Z will become the primary factor for problems (or not) in the aviation world. For now, a line of clustered cells are producing some thunder and ceiling/visiblilty restrictions up north. As time goes along, the focus will shift to the south, with KSPS, KLAW, and KDUA having some more widespread issues towards early Friday morning.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Flood Watch in effect from 9PM Thursday to 9 PM Friday for the SW corner of Oklahoma, the south central area from Davis to Thackerville...and all of our western north Texas Counties.

In the near term section, there is an overview of where/why storms are expected to form. However, a small area was chosen for the flood watch based on a few additional parameters. First, the agreement in the synoptic scale models and CAMs, which have a consistent depiction of the geography and duration of the expected rain. Second, locally heavy rainfall has occurred in northern Oklahoma today on a much smaller scale, but over 3" of rain fell in Medford Oklahoma today. Tonight's storms are expected to be quite similar rainfall producers (if not heavier rain) Thirdly, the I-35 corridor from Norman to the Texas border saw 2-4 inches of rainfall in the past week, meaning only about an inch of rainfall will produce some potential flooding in this area.

Maybe more importantly, the large scale and mesoscale models are in excellent agreement in producing PWATS between 2 and 2.5 inches. For comparison, the 90th percentile climatology of Norman's upper air data for the 18/19th of June is ~1.9" Thus, the models give a greater than 75% chance of seeing extreme PWAT values in the next 24 hours. High PWAT values by themselves might not mean anything, but coupled with expected thunderstorms, warm advection regime and training thunderstorms warrant the flood watch.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 66 83 69 87 / 90 40 40 30 Hobart OK 64 85 68 90 / 100 30 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 68 86 70 90 / 90 60 40 20 Gage OK 61 84 67 90 / 50 20 30 10 Ponca City OK 64 83 68 86 / 60 10 40 30 Durant OK 73 85 73 89 / 60 70 50 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning for OKZ036>041-044>046-050.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ037-039-044>048- 050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ084>090.