textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot conditions for the upcoming weekend.

- There is chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday with a front.

NEAR TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

There is chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma later this morning as the remnants of showers and thunderstorms across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle continue to move eastward. Similar to yesterday, additional showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop from the associated outflow and any gravity waves.

Otherwise, the heatwave continues today with a ~596 dam mid-level ridge centered in eastern New Mexico/the western Texas panhandle. High temperatures this afternoon will once again will be in the upper 90s to upper 100s deg F with heat indices between 105 and 113 deg F. The highest heat indices are most likely across southeast Oklahoma. In addition, the winds will be the lightest here, which will likely result in wet bulb globe temperatures that are an extreme risk for those outdoors and involved in physical activity. This area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The ridge aloft will retrograde to the west Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward on its northeast periphery. This pattern change will allow a cold front associated with the trough to advance southward into the Southern Plains.

The cold front/northerly wind shift will move into northern Oklahoma Friday morning and move southward through the day. However, the cold air will lag behind the wind shift--so Friday will be another hot day. Depending on the timing of the wind shift, some locations will likely be very hot ahead of the wind shift with veered, southwest to westerly low-level flow amplifying the low-level thermal ridge. This is most likely across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where heat indices could exceed 110 deg F (the air temperatures in southwest Oklahoma could even be close to 110 deg F). An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed Friday afternoon for parts of the area. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. The exception might be northwest Oklahoma, where the arrival of the cold front early in the day may result in not as hot weather.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front. While the strongest synoptic-scale forcing is to the northeast, there might be enough convergence along the boundary to result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms (20 to 30% chance at a given location). Any thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce strong wind gusts from downbursts given the hot temperatures and high downdraft CAPE (>1000 J/kg).

Cooler/less hot weather arrives on Saturday in the wake of the cold front, which will be a welcome relief from the ongoing heatwave. High temperatures are forecast to range from upper 80s deg F (north central Oklahoma) to near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas) with northerly winds. By Saturday night, low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s to near 70 deg F.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The cooler/less hot weather will continue into Sunday with north to northeast winds and temperatures similar to Saturday.

A warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft and associated thermal ridge expanding eastward toward the Southern Plains. Hot, above-normal temperatures are likely to return by the middle part of next week with dry conditions.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Scattered areas of rain/occasional thunder continue to develop/spread across portions of northern and central Oklahoma early this morning. This activity will likely continue into the mid-morning, though chances for meaningful category impact are very low.

Otherwise, continued mid/high cloudiness and a modest south-to- southeast breeze are expected today and tonight.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 101 78 101 73 / 10 10 30 20 Hobart OK 104 78 104 73 / 10 10 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 104 79 105 76 / 0 0 10 20 Gage OK 103 75 99 69 / 30 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 98 76 98 71 / 20 40 20 0 Durant OK 101 79 103 77 / 0 0 10 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042-044>047-050-051.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ043-048-052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.