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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Mainly warm and dry weather throughout the upcoming week.

- Monitoring fire weather potential by Thursday across western portions of the forecast area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

After a cold day yesterday, we will begin a trend of warming daytime temperatures today that will continue over the coming days. A chilly morning does remain in the meantime, with widespread low to mid-20s across the forecast area. A breezy south wind will promote single digit wind chills across central and northern Oklahoma through ~8 AM this morning.

Areas of stratus are beginning to emerge and spread northeastward from the Texas Rolling Plains/central panhandle early this morning. While it is likely temperatures run (at least) 5-8 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to Sunday, the result of a returning southerly flow regime, pesky areas of low clouds/stratus are likely to leave some disappointed with another relatively cool (mid-40s) day. This is most likely along and east of the Interstate 44 corridor, where cloudy skies may ultimately remain near and past sunset this evening.

Ungar

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A more notable warmup and continued low-impact weather is expected into the midweek. A weak upper trough looks to drop southeastward from the Rockies towards Red River Valley through the day on Tuesday. Other than a gradual shift in wind direction across the surface trough (i.e., light northwesterlies across northwest Oklahoma to modest southerlies across southeast Oklahoma), minimal surface reflection is expected with the passing system. Temperatures will warm nicely into the afternoon, from upper-50s in the east to a few locations approaching 70 degrees across western-north Texas.

Wednesday will be another day where temperatures run several degrees (in the upper-50s to mid-60s) above mid-December normals. A gusty southerly wind will be possible during the afternoon and evening across western portions of the area, as the surface pressure gradient sharpens in response to a strong upper system beginning to emerge across the Great Divide.

Ungar

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A strong upper system (100+ kt jet core) looks to eject across the Central Plains through the day on Thursday. While the associated cold front is currently progged to sweep across the forecast area during the morning hours, strongest post-frontal cold air advection may remain delayed until later in the afternoon and evening. As such, temperatures (especially across southern fringes of the area) may continue to run near or just above normal prior to a cold (20s) overnight period.

With continued strong quasi-zonal flow across the Rockies, daytime conditions should rebound quickly by Friday, especially across western Oklahoma and western-north Texas (low to mid-60s). The latest NBM forecast for Saturday advertises mid-fall warmth, with temperatures near and above 80 degrees, across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western-north Texas ahead of another front.

While all passing system/fronts remain unlikely to bring us much of anything on the precipitation front, increasing fire weather concern is likely across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas from Thursday onward. Something to keep an eye on given our recent stretch of dry and often warm weather.

Ungar

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Widespread stratus extending from west Texas through southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas will continue increasing with overcast ceilings between 020-030 ft reducing all terminals to a MVFR category for periods of time. Any reductions at terminals KWWR, KSWO, and KPNC will be short-lived between 14-17Z for the former and 12-14Z for the latter two. Expecting terminals in central through southwest Oklahoma and KSPS to remain in a MVFR category through at least 21-01Z. Terminal KDUA should be in a MVFR category by 18Z extending through 01Z. After 01Z all of the stratus should be out with all terminals returning to a VFR category. However, advection fog will possibly develop across much of western Oklahoma into adjacent northern Texas between 09-11Z with terminals in that area degrading to an MVFR category in patchy fog although visibilities may further reduce below 1 mile toward the end of the forecast further degrading those affected terminals to an IFR category. Surface winds will increase out of the south-southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts by 16Z. Surface winds will back more southerly at 5-10 kts after 00Z with diminishing gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 45 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 51 35 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 50 41 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 56 27 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 47 30 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 47 36 60 44 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.