textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 105 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Above-average temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind a cold front.

- Rain and storm chances increase this weekend and continue through late next week.

NEAR TERM

(Through Friday) Issued at 105 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Warm downsloping northwesterly flow aloft will bring continued above normal temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Weak surface troughing will develop along the Southern Rockies with increasing low-level winds. Strong heating will give way to daytime mixing and downward momentum of 700mb winds of 20-30 knots towards the surface, especially across western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas. Thus, southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will be possible across the aforementioned area. Conditions will dry through the afternoon with widespread minimum relative humidity values of 20-30 percent and a few localized areas across western Oklahoma and into western north Texas of 15 to 20 percent possible. ERCs will remain in the 80-90th percentile with a continued lack of precipitation and drying fuels. Thus, elevated fire weather concerns will return this afternoon across portions of western Oklahoma with the greatest chances for initial attack fires.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 105 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Mild, above average temperatures in the 40s to mid 50s Friday night with light winds and mostly clear skies. Saturday will feature warmer temperatures than Friday with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Westerly flow will persist aloft through the weekend as a weak surface low pushes across West Texas and into western north Texas by Saturday afternoon. Warm moist southerly flow will bring mid 50s dewpoints to southern and portions of central Oklahoma. Warm isentropic ascent, along with a weak area of surface convergence, will bring increasing rain and storm chances through the day Saturday across portions of central Oklahoma and eastward. SBCAPE values of up to 500 J/kg with bulk shear of 50-60 knots will support a strong to severe storm with hail up to the size of quarters and 60 mph winds gusts the main threats.

A backdoor cold front will enter northern Oklahoma late Saturday night and stall and the boundary may become the focal point for additional shower and storm development overnight. Storms will likely remain elevated with cooler surface temperatures. However, small hail will still be possible with instability of MUCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg lifting northward across Oklahoma. Shower chances will continue through Sunday night ahead of and along the southward advancing cold front with the greatest chances across central Oklahoma and eastward. A potential warm nose above 850mb will keep most, if any, thunderstorm chances limited and most of the moisture will be below 850mb. Temperatures will still warm quite nicely into the 70s to mid 80s ahead of the front, while temperatures will remain in the lower 60s behind the front across northern Oklahoma.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 105 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

"Cooler" post-frontal temperatures Monday, but highs are still expected to get above normal in the 50s to 60s. There may be a lull in precipitation Monday before chances increase again late Monday night. An upper trough will approach the Rockies Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis will develop across the Texas Panhandle with a sharp dryline extending southward from the low. Low-level moisture will advect northward into Oklahoma with widespread dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s by the afternoon and evening hours. Rain and storm chances will increase Tuesday night and severe weather cannot be ruled out. A weak cold front Wednesday will bring some post-frontal showers.

By late next week, another trough will dig into the western CONUS and bring additional rain and storm chances to the forecast area. Details will continue to be refined, but severe weather remains possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the valid period. After light and variable surface winds early this morning, predominate south-southwesterly winds are expected into Friday afternoon, evening and night. Occasionally gusts upwards of 18-20 kts will be possible at KWWR & KCSM during the mid-afternoon as well.

Increasing mid/high-cloudiness is expected into early Saturday morning across the region.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 52 79 52 / 0 10 10 30 Hobart OK 76 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 79 53 85 58 / 0 10 10 20 Gage OK 79 42 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 79 48 78 41 / 0 10 10 10 Durant OK 78 52 81 57 / 0 10 10 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.