textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 556 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Heat indices 95 to near 105 again this afternoon.

- Storms likely to be more widespread this evening and overnight.

- Slightly cooler temperatures to start the week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Another hot afternoon across Oklahoma and north Texas with temperatures in the 90s and heat indices ranging from the upper 90s across the northwest to near 105 in southeast Oklahoma. Winds will not be a strong as the last couple of days, which was a mitigating factor with respect to the WBGT, so it may feel hotter today as compared to Thu/Fri.

Otherwise, a shortwave dropping south out of Kansas as well as a MCV moving out of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle into western Oklahoma, will combine with low level convergence along a surface boundary across northern Oklahoma to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are suggesting convective initiation will be across north-central Oklahoma in the 3 to 4 o'clock time frame. With the rather weak steering flow and large low level temp/dewpoint depressions the main hazard will be strong/damaging wind gusts. Some hail will be possible, but warm/hot and relatively dry low level will limit the risk. In addition, with the slow movement of the storms, isolated areas of heavy rainfall will also be possible.

This activity is expected to become more widespread along the surface front across northern Oklahoma by late this afternoon. The convection will then begin to develop toward central Oklahoma during the evening and then approaching the Red River after midnight. Although some shower/storm activity may remain possible through the overnight across portions of central and southern Oklahoma with the strongest activity shifting south over time. As convection gets better organized overnight, a cold pool may develop, which should result in a more progressive southward motion, limiting overall heavy rainfall risk, but isolated areas of heavy rain could still occur.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Precipitation should wain as we go through the morning hours Sunday across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, but may not entirely dissipate. Expect to see convective develop increase again by the afternoon hours on Sunday. The biggest question is where? Some models are more progressive with the effective boundary and keep the more substantial development south across north Texas, while others keep the boundary farther north across southern Oklahoma. Will keep a larger area of modest precip chances across central into southern Oklahoma and north Texas because of the uncertainty and try to refine as scenario becomes more clear. A few strong to severe storms again appear possible Sunday afternoon with strong wind gusts the main hazard.

With most, if not all the area to the north of the "cold front" Sunday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler. However, heat indices will still be in the mid to upper 90s across much of the area with low 100s in the south.

Rain and storm chances linger into Sunday night across the south, but again this will depend on location of surface boundary. Any lingering activity will gradually shift south overnight into Monday morning.

Highs on Monday will stay in the 90s across the area, even in the south along with some slightly lower dewpoints, which should keep heat indices below triple digits across much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The weather pattern looks to shift the primary mid-level ridge into an east-west oriented ridge across the northern United States early in the week, with an inverted trough developing through the week from northwest Mexico into eastern New Mexico and west Texas. But the medium-range models differ on how that will affect the placement of the ridge as we get later into the week. So while there is uncertainty on how the pattern will evolve, it generally looks precipitation chances will be relatively low with a warming trend through the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Scattered storms will continue this evening into the overnight period, with chances gradually shifting southward with time. Expect potential for gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of storms. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with southeast winds prevailing at most sites, becoming more easterly by Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 74 92 71 92 / 70 30 40 20 Hobart OK 74 95 71 93 / 40 50 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 75 97 72 95 / 30 40 50 20 Gage OK 70 93 69 92 / 10 30 20 10 Ponca City OK 71 89 69 89 / 60 10 10 0 Durant OK 77 94 74 93 / 40 50 60 20

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.