textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low confidence on details.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Water vapor imagery shows increasing clouds across TX early this morning as moisture associated with the remnants of Vance makes its way across Mexico within broad southwest flow aloft. Clouds will continue to build over our area ahead of this system today, with scattered rain showers expected to make their way into our western north TX and southwest OK counties later this afternoon into this evening. Better rain chances will arrive overnight into the day on Friday as the main wave of moisture moves over the area. The best forcing continues to be forecast across western OK and western north TX which is where the steadier precipitation is expected much of tonight, with rain more showery/scattered in nature further north and east. Instability appears quite limited but could be enough for the occasional lightning strike, with overall probabilities for lightning near 10-20% for any one location.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Steady rain will continue into the day on Friday across western OK, becoming lighter later in the afternoon into the evening as forcing begins to weaken over the area. Chances for scattered showers will continue into Saturday across central/eastern portions of the area, clearing from west to east during the afternoon as the system exits. As far as rainfall amounts, the highest rainfall totals are favored within a swath stretching from western north TX across much of western OK and into north-central OK, where totals of 0.75-1.5" are most likely. Much lighter amounts are expected across southeast/south-central OK where some areas may only see a tenth of an inch or less through Saturday evening.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Drier conditions are expected through Sunday morning but will not last long as troughing over the western US amplifies and moves into the central US. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the trough as it moves into the Plains, with solutions ranging from a slower, deeper cutoff low to more of an open wave moving across our area. This will have implications for rainfall amounts and severe weather potential, and obviously timing, for our area. For now, the best model consensus would suggest at least low end severe weather potential Monday into Monday night as moisture surges northward ahead of a dryline/pacific front, followed by cooler temperatures and perhaps continued shower activity Tuesday on the backside of the trough. However, given the uncertainty expect the details to continue to evolve as we draw closer.

Ware

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Guidance continues to hint at potential stratus development in south central OK around daybreak, but REFS probabilities remain below that which warrant an explicit forecast in the TAF. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions through the afternoon. The approach of showers and a few thunderstorms looks to be delayed until after 0Z in western north Texas and beyond 06Z across our Oklahoma counties.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 83 61 70 57 / 0 40 100 50 Hobart OK 83 60 68 56 / 0 80 100 60 Wichita Falls TX 83 61 71 57 / 20 80 90 60 Gage OK 82 57 66 51 / 0 20 100 60 Ponca City OK 84 61 74 56 / 0 20 90 50 Durant OK 84 63 76 59 / 10 20 30 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.