textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon with continued fire weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday.

- Strong winds are expected across western Oklahoma this afternoon with south to southwest wind gusts between 40 to 55 mph. - Near-record warmth is expected on this afternoon with highs 70s and 80s.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1228 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire weather concerns are the words for the day. See more details in the Fire Weather section.

Windy/gusty conditions are also expected this afternoon. Wind gusts over 40 mph have already occurred in the OK/TX panhandles this morning. These stronger winds are expected to spread into portions of the fa this afternoon with the strongest winds expected in NW OK. Wind gusts of 40 to around 55 mph will be possible. It is not completely out of the question for a few wind gusts up around 60 mph to occur in NW OK this afternoon if better mixing occurs than what is currently forecast. Wind speeds are expected to decrease some this evening but will remain breezy for a decent amount of the night.

Near record/record temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 70s in eastern parts of the fa to the low/mid 80s in western parts of the area. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall to around 40 in NW OK to the 50s in parts of southern OK and north TX.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1228 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire weather will continue to be the main concern for the area both Wednesday and Thursday. See the Fire Weather section for more details.

Breezy, but not as windy as today, conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday with wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range. These winds are due to pressure gradient and mixing. Winds on Wednesday will generally be from the south and southwest. However, winds are expected to be shifting/veering Thursday as a sfc low moves across northern KS/southern NE. Winds are expected to eventually end up from the NW/N as a cold front moves across the area Thursday/Thursday night.

Temperatures will continue to be warm on Wednesday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s across most of the area. There will be a bit of a gradient on Thursday as cooler air moves into the area behind the front. Highs are expected to range from the upper 50s in NW OK to the upper 60s and low/mid 70s in southern OK and western north TX. Cooler temperatures are expected across the fa Thursday night as the cool air behind the front continues to move into the region. Temperatures Thursday night are expected to fall into the mid 20s to around 40.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1248 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Temperatures cool further on Friday with highs dropping back into the 50s to low 60s. A shortwave trough is expected to track across the southern Plains Friday night into Saturday morning. There are certainly differences regarding the strength of this system, and the amount of cold air that will overspread the region Saturday into Saturday night.

Ensemble guidance provides a low to medium chance of amounts greater than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Although temperatures may be cold enough to support winter-type precipitation, current indications are amounts (if any) will be light. As far as temperatures this weekend, any adjustments to the forecast will likely be colder than warmer.

A brisk northerly wind will prevail for most of the weekend, but will become more southerly as Monday approaches. A ridge to our west will build closer early next week, which will bring warmer temperatures with very low rain chances.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Outside of the coming 1-2 hours at KDUA, where current MFVR cigs are forecast to improve/lift, widespread VFR conditions are expected. Excessively gusty southwesterly surface winds will continue across western into west-central Oklahoma through this evening before gradual weakening and shifting (towards more dominant westerly component) occurs.

Low-level wind shear will be a concern across much of the area from late Tuesday into the initial hours on Wednesday ahead of the wind shift/weak front.

Safe travels!

Ungar

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

An extended period of increased fire weather concerns is expected across at least part of the area from today into Thursday. Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon in parts of NW/Western OK. Near critical to maybe critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday and Thursday.

TODAY(TUESDAY): Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon, especially in NW OK. Drier air is expected to move into western parts of the area this afternoon as a dryline/Pacific front moves into the area and mixing also occurs. RH values of less than 20 percent have already moved into far NW OK late this morning. Min RH values of 10 to 20 percent are expected across western OK and western parts of north TX. Strong, gusty south to southwest winds are also expected this afternoon. A few gusts around 40 mph have already been reported in parts of western and central OK this morning with gusts of 50+ mph being seen in the OK/TX Panhandle. Wind speeds/gusts are expected to increase this afternoon as these stronger winds spread east and mixing continues. Wind gusts of 40 to around 55 mph are expected in the area with highest gusts in NW OK.

The dry air combined with strong winds, near record temperatures, and dry fuels will lead to critical to extreme fire weather conditions this afternoon in parts of western OK and western north TX with the worst conditions expected in NW OK. One mitigating factor could be the cloud cover. However, current visible satellite shows some clearing/thinning of the high cirrus clouds in the OK/TX panhandles that is expected to spread into parts of the fa this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect across parts of western OK and western north TX.

Poor RH recovery is expected tonight as the dryline/Pacific front continues to move east across the area with the dry air continuing to spread eastward. In fact, there are some indications that some locations could reach their min RH this evening after the sun goes down instead of the typical late afternoon time frame. Winds are expected to shift to the west behind the boundary. Wind speeds are also expected to slowly decrease this evening but will remain breezy.

WEDNESDAY: With the poor RH recovery expected tonight and the dry air spreading across the area, A larger area of near critical fire weather conditions is expected Wednesday afternoon, especially across parts of northern, western, and central OK.

Min RH of 10 to 20 percent is expected across all but far SE portions of the fa Wednesday afternoon. Winds will shift back to the south and southwest Wednesday morning. Winds are not expected to be as strong as today but still at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph possible, especially in NW OK. The low RH, winds, warm temperatures, and dry fuels will combine to create the near critical to maybe some pockets of critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Less cloud cover is expected Wednesday compared to today, especially in northern parts of the fa with decreasing clouds in southern parts of the area. The fire weather watch has been converted into a Red Flag Warning for northern, western, and parts of central OK and western north TX.

THURSDAY: The third day of near critical to maybe critical fire weather concerns is expected Thursday afternoon. Near critical conditions will be possible across much of the fa. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued for all but the SE 5 counties of the fa for Thursday afternoon.

Min RH of 20 percent or less is expected across most of the fa Thursday. Winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Unfortunately, winds will also be veering/shifting throughout the day Thursday as a sfc low moves across N KS/S NE. Winds will eventually shift to the N and NW as a cool front moves across the area. With the low RH, breezy and shifting winds, and dry fuels, increased fire weather concerns are expected for Thursday afternoon despite some cooler air moving into the area behind the front.

REST OF THE WEEK: With cooler air moving into the area behind Thursday's front, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for the rest of the week and through the weekend. There is also a chance for some light precipitation late Friday into Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 78 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 80 43 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 82 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 80 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 76 43 74 46 / 10 10 0 0 Durant OK 73 54 76 57 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>006- 009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for OKZ004>019- 021>025-027>029-033>038.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>007-009>012- 014>018-021>024-027-033>038.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OKZ004>042-044>046-050.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083-084-087.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for TXZ083>085- 087-088.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ083.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ083>090.