textproduct: Norman

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot conditions for the upcoming weekend.

- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday with a cold front.

NEAR TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Gravity waves and outflow from the remnants of showers and thunderstorms across Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle are moving eastward across the Oklahoma panhandle early this morning. As these gravity waves approach northwest Oklahoma, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this morning. There is even the potential if these waves continue moving eastward, isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop in north central Oklahoma later today. Any convection is not expected to be intense with no severe weather expected.

Otherwise, the heatwave continues with a ~595 dam mid-level ridge centered in New Mexico continuing to be the primary influence on the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas. High temperatures this afternoon will once again will be in the 100s deg F with heat indices between 105 and 113 deg F. The highest heat indices will be across portions of north central, east central, and southeast Oklahoma due to higher moisture. This area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for today.

Mahale

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The heatwave will continue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with the Southern Plains continuing to be influenced by the ridge aloft and the associated low-level thermal ridge. Heat Advisories will be needed both afternoons with no appreciable change in air mass.

The synoptic-scale pattern will begin to change Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave trough amplifies and digs southeastward on the northeast periphery of the ridge. In response, the ridge will retrograde to the west. This will allow a cold front to advance southward into the Southern Plains.

The cold front/northerly wind shift will move in Friday morning. However, the cold air will lag behind the wind shift--so Friday will be another hot day. Depending on the timing of the wind shift/cold front, some locations will likely be very hot ahead of the cold front with veered, southwest to westerly low-level flow. This is is most likely across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, where heat indices could exceed 110 deg F (the air temperatures in some locations could even be near 110 deg F). Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed Friday afternoon.

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front. However, with strongest synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast, the chance is only 20 to 30%.

Mahale

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Cooler/less hot weather arrives on Saturday with more appreciable cold air advection in the wake of the cold front. However, the strongest cold air advection will remain to our northeast across the Great Lakes and Midwest. As a result, the most significant cool down will be across north central Oklahoma. High temperatures are forecast to range from the near 90 deg F (north central Oklahoma) to near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas). In other words, this cold front will bring us closer to normal for early August.

Near normal temperatures will continue into Sunday before a slow warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft and attendant thermal ridge expanding eastward--back toward the Southern Plains.

Mahale

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR category is forecast areawide during the upcoming period. A modest southwest-to-southeast breeze and widespread mid/high clouds will continue.

There remains low (<30%) potential for rain/thunder across northern Oklahoma today, and have added a period of PROB30 mention at KPNC this afternoon into evening.

Safe travels!

Ungar

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 102 78 102 78 / 0 10 10 10 Hobart OK 104 78 105 79 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 104 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 103 76 105 76 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 99 76 99 77 / 10 20 30 20 Durant OK 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>019-021>025-027>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ020-026-032-043-048-052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.