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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 153 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon with a few strong to severe capable of large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Additional strong to severe storms will be possible tonight into Sunday morning with all hazards possible, including heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Sunday evening into early next week will continue to feature an active pattern of showers and storms, some strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return early next week, especially across portions of western Oklahoma, especially if rainfall remains limited in that area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A few clusters of showers and weak storms are moving northeastward across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle this morning. Instability is weak with the low-level jet likely helping to keep the activity from diminishing. There is a slight chance some of this activity may clip northwest Oklahoma early this morning. Main concerns would be lightning, but gusty winds and very small hail may be possible with some of the stronger updrafts.

Precipitation chances will increase around sunrise across western north Texas and into southwest Oklahoma with scattered isentropic showers and storms developing and moving northward. Showers and storms may become widely scattered by the afternoon hours across the forecast area. Any lingering outflow boundaries from Friday's activity and storms through the day Saturday may be a catalyst for additional development. Southwesterly flow will increase aloft, but not by a lot (~20-30 knots), with an approaching shortwave embedded in the flow of an upper low entering the Pacific Coast of Cali. Thus, effective shear will increase during the afternoon today but still remain weak <20 knots. MLCAPE profiles will also remain fairly skinny with 500-1500 J/kg. Thus, storms will not likely be strong for long and if a storm or two were to become strong to severe, the main hazards would be damaging winds and large hail. Storms may be slow moving to the northeast and with PWATs around 1.25-1.5 inches, heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Additional convection is likely to develop along the higher terrain out west in New Mexico and with increasing southwesterly flow aloft, storms are expected to grow upscale as they push east northeast late Saturday night. The shortwave will also bring a wave of sub-tropical moisture with a nearly saturated atmospheric profile up to 300mb with PWATs up to nearly 1.5 inches. There is some uncertainty with the north to south extent of showers and storms, with a potential for a broken cluster or two. The greater PWATs and certainty for an MCS will be across central into southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Some of the stronger updrafts in the cluster of storms may be capable of producing large hail, but the primary concern will be damaging winds. The threat for tornadoes will remain low with the highest chances across southern Oklahoma and southward. Surface winds may back out of the southeast as the low-level jet increases. Thus, a brief tornado may be possible in the potential developing QLCS. The main hazard with storms heading into early Sunday morning as they push into central and eastern Oklahoma will become heavy rainfall and flooding, especially across areas that receive several rounds or training storms.

Storms will continue to linger Sunday morning across central and into southeast Oklahoma. Clouds will also begin to clear from west to east behind the exiting showers and storms. Timing of the exiting storms may play a pivotal role in daytime heating and instability by Sunday afternoon and evening. Most of the deep atmospheric moisture may be scoured by this time and result in a lack of thunderstorm initiation, despite ample amount of instability. Right now, ensembles and the blend of models trends towards little to no precipitation chances by Sunday evening. However, given it is April with upper 50s to 60s dewpoints east of a dryline setting up near the 100th meridian, slight chance PoPs were introduced across northwest Oklahoma where the environment may be more favorable and less worked over from the overnight convection. However, anywhere east of the dryline that clears and heats up during the afternoon Sunday could be in play and those details will continue to be ironed out as storms evolve today and tonight. If a storms develops Sunday evening, large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall would be the primary hazards and the tornado potential remains very low to low with weaker low-level wind shear present.

As the upper trough continues an eastward trajectory over Nevada Monday, the surface lee low from Sunday will eject eastward over Nebraska. The dryline will once again be in play over Oklahoma, but potentially setup somewhere around north central Oklahoma down into southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Strong to severe storms along and east of the dryline will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. Elevated to near critical fire weather may return to areas west of the dryline with warm, breezy and dry conditions. Rainfall this weekend may help to lessen the extremely dry fuels across northwest into west central Oklahoma and therefore the fire weather risk Monday may heavily depend on this weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Heading into the middle of the week, an active pattern remains in place with increased southwesterly flow aloft and a passing shortwave. Exact details on storm severity, timing and location still remain unclear as the track of the upper system may change. Another longwave trough axis may follow later next week with additional storm chances possible heading into next weekend. Fire weather next week will remain contingent on rainfall amounts over the weekend and into next week, but elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may return across portions of western Oklahoma through next week. Over the next 7 days, there is some hope to improve drought conditions across portions of Oklahoma.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Lighter winds expected overnight with a low chance of of showers and a few storms across the north. Expect widespread stratus to develop toward morning and these MVFR ceilings will likely linger through much, if not all day. There will be a gradual increase in shower/storm activity as we go through the afternoon and especially Saturday night. South winds will increase again by mid-morning tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Oklahoma City OK 77 62 79 65 / 60 90 90 10 Hobart OK 78 60 83 60 / 70 90 60 10 Wichita Falls TX 80 64 84 65 / 60 90 70 10 Gage OK 77 57 85 56 / 60 60 40 20 Ponca City OK 78 61 78 64 / 50 80 90 10 Durant OK 80 65 78 66 / 30 60 90 40

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.