textproduct: Spokane

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue. Tuesday and Wednesday next week will be our warmest days over the next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- A cold front will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions on Saturday, particularly over central Washington, with critical fire weather conditions expected.

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will then brush across the region on Saturday and bring breezy to gusty winds across central Washington and a return for increased fire weather concerns. Little to no precipitation is expected through the middle of next week. Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY...

Today through Sunday: A Low passing through Southern BC will swing a dry cold front across the Inland Northwest. Ensembles have decent agreement on the timing and track of the Low. The front will bring gusty winds starting mid morning and continue into the evening. Highest winds will be through the Okanogan Valley and the western Columbia Basin including Wenatchee and Moses Lake. These areas have probabilities of 50-70% for sustained winds above 20 mph and gusts above 35 mph. Minimum humidity will be in the teens to low 20 percent. These conditions have led to a Red Flag being issued for these areas with rapid fire spread concerns. The front will bring slightly cooler temperatures through Sunday with highs a few degrees cooler than Friday. The only chance for precip for the region will be on Sunday and over the extreme North Idaho Panhandle. A trace to couple of hundredths are only expected. HeatRisk will be mainly minor through the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Monday through Friday: For the start of next week, models are in fairly decent agreement of high pressure ridge leading stable warm, dry pattern. Temperatures climb back into the upper 80s and 90s. Wednesday has breezy winds through the Cascade Gaps as a thermal trough sets up along the Cascades with gusts into the 20s to low 30s mph. Ensembles show the ridge breaking down for the end of the week into the weekend. While agreement on timing is still pretty low, it is expected to be cooler with increased precip chances across the region for the weekend. /JDC

AVIATION

18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A dry cold front will bring gusty west to northwest winds today with gusts of 15-25 kts, except for stronger gusts up to 30-35 kts at KOMK/KEAT. Winds will decrease after 03-06z as the front exits. A band of mid and high clouds over southeast Washington into North Idaho will clear the area this evening. Flat cumulus is also expected today over the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. High confidence in timing of wind increase. JW

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

Spokane 86 54 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 84 53 80 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 80 51 78 48 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 88 56 86 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 84 49 81 47 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 82 50 77 50 79 52 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 81 51 77 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 89 56 87 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 86 59 86 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 86 57 85 55 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WA...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...None.