textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A cold front over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this morning will work east today, passing through the area this evening. Weak high pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and then offshore Saturday. A frontal system will impact the region Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Multiple MCVs/convective complexes this morning from the Great Lakes east to the NJ coast will get absorbed into the shortwave trough lifting across the Northeast this morning into this afternoon. The lead complex along the NJ coast continues to dissipate with a few discrete cells out to the east, mainly to the waters south of LI. Another complex was working into SE PA, tracking ENE. Airmass across area is moderately unstable and this will have to be watched as it works toward the area toward daybreak. CAMs generally in agreement for the system to weaken as it approaches the area. The question is will there be enough lift to overcome stable low-levels. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain a possibility through mid morning. Any storms will be progressive due to a strengthening mid-level WSW.

Expect a respite late morning into the early afternoon before a pre-frontal trough enters the picture. For the most past, CAMs showing little if any convection with the 00Z NSSL WRF the most aggressive in swinging a broken line through the area during the mid to late afternoon hours. Weakening mid-levle lapse rates and drying moisture profiles all point to limited activity this afternoon/early this evening with mainly isolated to widely scattered convection. There is moderate instability with increasing DCAPE this afternoon and 35-40kt of mid-level flow. SPC has the much of the area in a marginal risk for an isolated severe threat. Expect cold front to come through dry evening, but perhaps something isolated.

A heat advisory remains up for the entire forecast area through 10 pm this evening. It will be another hot and humid day with heat indices around 100 for most locales, with a few spots up to 102-103. Used a blend of the NBM with CONSALL as dew points should fall some this afternoon with a drying vertical moisture profile as winds veer more westerly. NBM deterministic temperatures have been trending upward with a drying airmass and many locations will top out at or above 90 away from the south shore and twin forks of LI. Record highs are not expected. KEWR will likely get to around 95.

SW winds will become gusty late this morning into this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. NBM seems to have been playing catchup with the winds and leaned toward the 90th percentile and even a bit higher. This is supported by 00Z NAM and GFS upper air soundings. Winds will shift to the W/NW behind the cold front this evening.

Lows behind the front will be cooler, but still several degrees above normal. What will be even more noticeable will be the drier airmass filtering into the region overnight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

High pressure builds in Friday into Friday night and then offshore on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal system. Highs will be closer to normal during this time. It will be much more comfortable with a dry airmass in place Friday into Friday night, with increasing humidity on Saturday due to a southerly flow. Rain chances will also be on the increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a warm front approaches from southwest, passing to the north overnight. Best chance for rain at this time will be at night. Some thunder is possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Humidity levels will be increasing with dew points rising back into the lower 70s Sunday following a warm frontal passage. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Sunday along and ahead of a cold front. The cold front passes Sunday late afternoon/evening and will bring somewhat drier air. High pressure follows early next with temperatures at or just below normal.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late tonight: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Friday and Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday: Showers likely, chance of tstms. MVFR or lower cond likely.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A strengthening SW flow will bring a period of marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet late this afternoon into the overnight. The remaining waters may see some occasional nearshore gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. High pressure builds in Friday into Friday night. Conditions remain below SCA thresholds through Monday.

HYDROLOGY

Hydrologic impacts are not expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

With a strengthening southwest flow today, the risk for rip current development will be moderate, and waves will be 2 to 3 feet. A moderate rip current risk will continue into Friday with winds from the northwest to west and a remaining southerly swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010. NY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.