textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since the last update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog and a few showers possible early this morning for much of the area. Otherwise, much warmer conditions expected today.

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Monday through the middle of the upcoming week.

3) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday Night into Thursday with the next chance for showers followed by more seasonably cool air to end next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Low pressure and an associated strong frontal system will approach the area late Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. The systems warm front will likely lie well to the north Wednesday night with the trailing cold front slowly making its way into the area through Thursday morning. Chances for showers increase Wednesday night and then become likely on Thursday. Timing of the cold front passage still varies in the model guidance, but there has been some convergence of solutions towards Thursday morning/afternoon. Have continued to stick close to the NBM with precip probabilities, which show likely showers much of Thursday. This will continue to be narrowed down in the next few days as the timing of the cold front becomes better resolved. Thursday does not appear to be a washout since the area will be in the warm sector, and the showers will likely be in band along and immediately ahead of the cold front passage. Moderate to locally heavy downpours are possible. The amount of elevated instability is uncertain and have elected to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. Strong S flow ahead of the front should keep the low levels stable.

Temperatures will drop quickly behind the cold front passage. There is a chance highs for the day occur early on if the front moves through earlier. Current forecast highs are in the 50s, but if the front is slower interior locations could be a bit warmer. Temperatures should fall back into the 40s in the evening, and then potentially the upper 20s and low 30s at night. Some guidance lingers a few showers behind the front due to the passage of the upper trough. A few wet snow flakes cannot be ruled out in the colder air if any shower activity lingers Thursday evening/night.

Southerly flow ahead of the front increases with a modest low level jet, but the warmer air moving over the colder waters should negate any of the higher winds from mixing to the surface. Gusts 25-30 mph are possible though Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of the front.

Seasonably cool temperatures are likely to end the week into the fist half of the weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR. S-SW gusts 15-20 kt possible during the afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR or lower possible at times, especially late in the day and at night with a chance of rain showers. S wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible at times with rain showers. Isolated thunderstorm possible. SW-W wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day. A chance that rain showers could mix with snow at night. MVFR or lower possible at times at night. W wind gusts near 20-25 kt at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Dense Fog advisory remains in effect for all waters until 9 am. There may be some improvement on the NY harbor, but not enough confidence to cancel the advisory early at this time.

SCA remains up for the ocean with a strengthening SW flow and marginal gusts to 25 kt. Seas will build to 5 to 7 ft by morning before gradually subsiding tonight.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Monday and Tuesday. An approaching frontal system Wednesday begins to increase winds on the ocean, with widespread SCA winds Wednesday night into Thursday. There is low confidence with potential gales due to warm air moving over the colder ocean. Ocean seas will build through the period and potentially range from 8 to 12 ft. Winds and seas may begin subsiding Thursday night.

CLIMATE

Below are record high temperatures for Tuesday March 11 and Wednesday March 12

Tuesday March 11: KEWR: 81/2016 KBDR: 70/2006 KNYC: 79/2016 KLGA: 78/2016 KJFK: 71/2006 KISP: 73/2016

Wednesday March 12: KEWR: 75/2021 KBDR: 67/1977 KNYC: 79/2016 KLGA: 70/1977 KJFK: 68/2016 KISP: 68/1977

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>012. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ070>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-104- 106-108. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.